Damage control

Puppy getting in trouble

In early summer Paul (from Kelowna) told me about his octogenarian father. The old dude was living in a pre-fab home in the wilds of South Delta. Typical story. Real estate. No money. Getting by on CPP, OAS and duct tape. “How can I persuade him to sell?” the son asked me. So I told him.

Yesterday came this note:

“Garth: An update for you. My father indeed sold his gated modular home in late June for the crazy price of $725,000!!  More money than he has ever seen.  The cash is safely invested in a balanced portfolio managed by discretionary management (Thank you).

“The news is this:   Not one unit has sold in the neighbourhood since he sold his and the latest asking price is $525,000.  A decrease of $200,000 or 27% in about four months. Prices here in the Okanagan still seem high and not much selling on our street.  I believe we are in for a significant decrease here too. Thank you again.”

Meanwhile, a current magazine story on sellers asking less than they paid a few months ago makes for interesting reading. For example, 15 Glynde in Burnaby is listed now for $50,000 less than the owners paid nine months ago (at $1.3 million), and 615 East 6th in North Van is back on the market for $46,000 less than it fetched in June (asking $1.6 mill). Add in realtor’s commission, and in both instances the sellers will get pooched.

north-van

615 East 6th, North Vancouver – on sale for $1.6 million.

Yesterday Teranet reported an annualized 7.5% reduction in YVR prices, which leaves the GTA as the only major market not in convulsion, contraction or conniptions. Are the six million inhabitants here protected by a special dome keeping out the laws of economics, or are they just wingy? Naturally, time will tell if Toronto escapes the forces washing over the nation. But I think we already know the answer.

So RBC raised mortgage rates on Tuesday. A lot, actually. The five-year rate is now 3.04%, with increases also to the two- and three-year terms. Plus people choosing a longer am than 25 years will pay even more. Of course, new buyers need to also pass the MST, which remains at a riveting 4.64%, plus if you are a commissioned salesguy or have a credit score lower than six times your IQ, or plan to ever vote for Kevin O’Leary, you fail.

This comes after the TD raised its prime mortgage rate a couple of weeks ago, and a month following Wild Bill Morneau’s sweeping mortgage changes which caused panic, then havoc, in the lending industry. And now we have an even greater threat.

Following the election of the Trumpster, there is (as reported yesterday) more than a 90% probability the Fed will goose its trendsetting rate by a quarter point on December 14th. It’s anticipated on Wall Street that two more (at least) hikes will occur in 2017. The bond market has seen yields soar in the past week, and US Treasuries are up dramatically (with prices down). American mortgage rates have swollen like a beached Republican over the past five days, with the popular 30-year mortgage crashing into the psychologically-critical 4% mark. It’s a threshold nobody seriously expected to see for about a year. As Bloomberg reported Tuesday, “The situation on the ground is panicked. Damage control.”

At the heart of the rate surge is a flood of money out of the bond market and into equities, on the expectation Trumpenomics will mean more spending, less tax, accelerated growth, inflation and protectionism. In Canada, bond yields have surged the most in about a year, just six weeks after hitting the lowest point in recorded history. Of course, the new president-elect’s America-first policies could end up hurting Canada, should NAFTA be shredded, effectively leaving our car manufacturing plants out to dry.

So, add it up, snowflakes. We may not be so special after all.

Interest rates are rising in the US, and will continue to roil bonds. Canadian yields have surged. Two banks have jacked mortgage costs. More to follow. The feds knocked up to 20% of buyers out of the market with their new rules. Trump threatens trade. The economy already blows. And some people in YVR are selling houses for less than they paid months ago.

By the way, a fresh survey out from Mackenzie Investments found 65% of people in their fifties think they’ll fail during retirement. Why? Like Paul’s old man (before he wised up) they’ve had a one-asset strategy, and now lack money.

Remember. Real estate soared because rates tumbled. Not because it became intrinsically more valuable. When prices retreat, debt remains. What a week.

200 comments ↓

#1 Alice on 11.15.16 at 6:26 pm

It’s really sad that most Canadians don’t understand that home prices increased by almost exactly the same amount as borrowing levels increased as a result of rates falling.

#2 Tony on 11.15.16 at 6:28 pm

Frankly, Garth, many of your readers, as do I, suspect that you make up those messages from people thanking you for your excellent advice.

(a) I don’t. (b) Nor do I care what you think. — Garth

#3 ronh on 11.15.16 at 6:29 pm

I guess we are now living in interesting time.

#4 earlybird on 11.15.16 at 6:31 pm

I wish I had a T shirt with the interest rate chart and RE price chart on it, so I don’t have to verbally talk about RE…would be easier…

#5 Dave on 11.15.16 at 6:32 pm

But the tax break for new buyers in Ontario…the extra $2k will level things out.

#6 pfddogger on 11.15.16 at 6:37 pm

Garth (or blog dogs) what is a good USD ETF rate reset pfd listed in the US…thanks

#7 earthboundmisfit on 11.15.16 at 6:39 pm

Week? The whole damned year sucked, big time. My balanced and diversified portfolio excepted, of course.

#8 zee on 11.15.16 at 6:39 pm

Garth, this has happened before, rates going up but then coming down hard. Remember taper tantrum in 2013.

Will believe it if its stays around like this for the next few months.

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA on 11.15.16 at 6:41 pm

FALSE!

Economics prove that the Canadian dollar will RISE TO 85 CENTS once oil prices reach above $55bbl.

Our economy is booming while the American economy is in 20 trillion of DEBT! Way to go Trump! LOL ^_^

Canada is home to the highly-valued and world class city of Toronto. The lame French can keep Montreal. Montreal was never a great city.

The Canadian dollar rose from 73.6 cents to 74.4 cents today. Garth Turner is giving you bad advice.

The Canadian dollar will be at 85 cents within the next six months. Toronto is a global superpower city and our economy is stable.

Our middle class in Canada is richer than the 1% in the States. We have free healthcare, prestigious education and a Prime Minister who respects the rights of women and gays, our most vulnerable group that I offer my congratulations for Trudeau in lowering the Age of Consent for anal pleasure from 18 to 16. He should lower the age of consent for female to male sexual relations from 16 to 12 because boys are more mature these days.

The Canadian economy, rule of law and respect for human rights are successful in attracting the best and brightest labour, investment and capital into our great country.

-Elizabeth Smith, CPA (2015), CMA, MBA (University of Toronto, 2012), Internal Auditor for a large school board in the Greater Toronto Area.

#10 For those about to flop... on 11.15.16 at 6:41 pm

Checked on Zolo in my hood of Fraser to see if it was sinking or swimming against the newly released numbers.
Monthly -1.3%
Quarterly- 15.3%
Yearly change-11.1%

Didn’t take long for them to blow the froth off the cappuccino that the realtors freshly brewed in May…

M42BC

#11 Suede on 11.15.16 at 6:44 pm

Now is a good time to be a civil engineer, construction manager, project manager, paver, rebar guy, concrete placer and more..

In trumps new America

Jobs galore.

Go south, young man and woman.

Go south.

Then spend your 1.50 usdcad and buy half of Kelowna when you’re done in 8 years.

#12 Serenity Now on 11.15.16 at 6:47 pm

Rising rates won’t affect me, I can just lock in my mortgage for 5 years… A not so wise friend once told me. He was sweating and struggling to make ends meet when he temporarily lost his job this past summer in Calgary. Hope he can renew sooner than later.

#13 Victor V on 11.15.16 at 6:54 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/royal-bank-mortgage-rates-1.3851423

If you owe $300,000 on a 25-year mortgage locked into a five-year term, over the entire life of the loan, you’re going to wind up paying more than $13,600 in extra interest costs.

#14 TurnerNation on 11.15.16 at 6:57 pm

Found out a millennial co worker recently bought a house with zero down. Found a lender who rolled DP into loan.
Come renewal time, at higher rates will equity cover it?

#15 common sense on 11.15.16 at 6:58 pm

So raise rates and crash the markets now or don’t raise, print more money and kick the can further down the road…….

Does Donald inherit a nice low to start over again and make America great or ????

#16 Kelowna dude on 11.15.16 at 6:58 pm

“Prices here in the Okanagan still seem high and not much selling on our street. I believe we are in for a significant decrease here too”

Im in Kelowna, prices have shot up this year and IMO seem to be moving.

#17 Don Stallhanson on 11.15.16 at 7:01 pm

All a bunch and smoke and mirrors. Once we get another deep stock market crash 20%+, a world economic or domestic financial problem than you will see rates go down again.

This keeps happening over and over and you know what the final result is, lower rates than the previous 5 year period.

The numbers speak for themselves.

#18 Skip Breakfast on 11.15.16 at 7:03 pm

Thanks for returning to great insights Garth.

And wouldn’t it be oh-so-ironic if it’s really as simple as “rates drop low making houses go high”, followed by “rates rise and houses drop”.

After all, we’ve heard so much “analysis” about fundamental value, and China buying the world, and Zeus not making any more land, and Vancouver being the bestest city on earth (while apparently so is New York, Toronto, Auckland, Sydney, San Fransisco, et al).

Can it really be so simple as rates rise and prices drop? I think it really can.

#19 no bid on 11.15.16 at 7:03 pm

Someone should alert the hundreds of sellers of multi million dollar SDH in West Van with 8s in their price that only the locals are left. No one is coming to save you…

#20 preet89 on 11.15.16 at 7:06 pm

Things need to be done right away to help my generation.

Justin should put something in place that limits the interest rates that 29 year old and under’s can only have. That way we will get a chance to enjoy things the way the previous generations have. It’s not totally fair that now my generation will be seeing interest rates over 4 or 5%.

I hope Donald Trump can make the big corporations cut their profits to help out the upcoming generations. If all under 30’s were to get a 20% discount on anything that big companies sold, it would only reduce their profits a little bit. If Apple made say $50 billion profit last year and they were made to discount their products to under 30’s. They *may* in say the worst case get cut in half to ONLY $25 billion. They still win and so does our generation.

It will help everyone out actually because when the wrinklies get super old, we will have more money to help them out.

There can’t be anyone who would complain about Apple only making $25 billion profit instead of $50 billion!

#21 Grey Dog on 11.15.16 at 7:07 pm

Ha! Folks that don’t listen and learn from this blog FAIL!!!
Neighbour’s home in Uville turned down a 2.3m$ offer this weekend as it was 88k$ short…I sent neighbour, the Best of Garth over the last few months, offer was the highest ever for our street. Declined.
It’s gonna be a long cold miserable winter, and I predict a lot of open houses. Didn’t have to happen. It could have been wrapped up over and done.
Read and Learn folks.
Thanks Garth

#22 Doug t on 11.15.16 at 7:07 pm

What a week? What a year. And to think 2017 will probably make this year look downright rosy – fasten seat belts.

RATM

#23 Arfmooocat on 11.15.16 at 7:10 pm

Shipping stocks which have totally sucked for the last years are going insane.

DRYS has gone stupid… from $4 to $100 in days

#24 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Field HQ on 11.15.16 at 7:13 pm

In fealty of the God Emperor of Man – Trump, our undying lord, and by the grace of his Golden Throne, I hereby declare the demise of Canadian real estate, and consign a million properties to oblivion.

May imperial justice account in all balance.

The Emperor protects…

#25 espressobob on 11.15.16 at 7:16 pm

Who in their right mind would buy a rainbow? Tulips maybe. That makes sense?

Does history repeat?

#26 Doug t on 11.15.16 at 7:24 pm

#9 Elizabeth

WTF LMFAO – you take the “winner winner chicken dinner” prize for that entry

#27 Vancouver Troy on 11.15.16 at 7:24 pm

Wasn’t sure if I should dump my high yield U.S. corporate bond ETF XHY but after yesterday’s post it sounds like I should sit tight.

Thanks Garth.

#28 Mark on 11.15.16 at 7:26 pm

As the BoC keeps funding costs low through low policy rates (going lower once the CAD$ starts to take off soon!), and mortgage rates increase, the extra profit flows almost directly to the bottom line of the banks.

Bank earnings in 2 weeks. Should be increasingly spectacular.

#29 Linda on 11.15.16 at 7:32 pm

May you live in interesting times. I’d say that interesting times are here & just in case anyone was wondering – it isn’t meant to be a blessing. Mind, interesting times does mean that opportunities may arise that otherwise might not occur. Problem is how to identify opportunities if & when they arise. Mistaken identity could cost, big time.

#30 Bram on 11.15.16 at 7:35 pm

Yesterday Teranet reported an annualized 7.5% reduction in YVR

To clarify: this is a forward looking statement that extrapolates October’s month-over-month price change. Oct’15 to Oct’16 is still listed as +19.6% by Teranet. That will change quickly of course, judging from the re-listing of that North-Van shack. Eventually, year-over-year will start showing negative numbers too. (My guess is this will happen in the coming summer.)

#31 smartalox on 11.15.16 at 7:35 pm

RBC’s hike set the 3.04% rate for 25+yr amortizations.

According to the G&M, sub25yr AM is now 2.94%

Starting November 17, a new RBC five-year mortgage with an amortization period of 25 years or less will cost 2.94 per cent, up from 2.64 per cent, an 11 per cent jump.

For mortgages with amortization periods longer than 25 years, the rates climb even more quickly. The annual cost of a five-year mortgage of this length will rise 40 basis points – a basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point – to 3.04 per cent.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/rbc-hikes-some-fixed-mortgage-rates-as-bond-yields-spike/article32847841/

At any rate, a significant change!

(P.S.: please delete this note if somebody else beat me to the punch)

#32 Don Regan on 11.15.16 at 7:38 pm

A true Story, Will this happen to you!

A preferred Vancouver Westside Location.
Listing R 2119180

1611 West 61st Ave

LP $3,890,000
History Bought in 1992 for $1,120,000
Sold in 2006 ” $ 1,380,000
Bought in 2015 ” $ 2,680,000
Sold Mar 2016 ” $ 3,580,000

New Price Nov 2016 $3,000,000

current Loss $890,000 plus Agt Com

I personally have not done the tracking on sales but
was given the details.

#33 Paul in Kelowna on 11.15.16 at 7:40 pm

Tony #2. I’m the guy who sent the message to Garth. True story. Not made up.

#34 Rexx Rock on 11.15.16 at 7:40 pm

Yes rates will rise in 2018 in Canada and prices may only go up 3% to 5%.High immigration will be the reason even if there not needed or wanted because of the coming recession.

#35 Eaglebay on 11.15.16 at 7:43 pm

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA on 11.15.16 at 6:41 pm

Wow, Montreal is fun, Toronto is boring.
You must be a recent immigrant or a joker.
Your CPA is worth dick. Billable hours are a rip off for what your clients get.

#36 David McDonald on 11.15.16 at 7:46 pm

When I look at the history of a bond ETF like VAB it could drop 10% to reach a five year low. But is that a reasonable lower bound given rates have been close to zero over that whole period? As rates rise where is the bottom for bonds?

#37 For those about to flop... on 11.15.16 at 7:46 pm

Geez,the super moon really brings the trolls out.

I thought they didn’t like the light…

M42BC

#38 traderJim on 11.15.16 at 7:50 pm

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA and all around amazing person.

I hope that’s not your real identity…

The one thing my study of Economics (MA, Queens) taught me was that economics cannot predict the future.

Imagine that, economists can’t predict the future, who knew?

The second I see someone proclaiming that there is ‘proof’ that x will happen in the future, especially regarding prices of stocks, bonds and most of all currencies, I know with 100% certainty that they completely lack credibility.

You can’t even recognize the fab city of Montreal, whose Schwartz’s deli alone makes it worth a visit. (There are a few other sights to see in Montreal, but this is a family blog I assume).

I really do hope that was a troll post, otherwise our school boards are in deeper trouble than I thought.

#39 Hotdogs from Heaven on 11.15.16 at 7:51 pm

SFH’s are one thing, but here in the big stink as Garth wrote a few days ago, we sell tens of thousands of condos every year and his blog mentioned that developers provided numbers showing that 52% of all sales of new condos were to speculators/investors, but NOT people who would live in them themselves.

Now that the new mortgage rules will NOT provide cheap rates and insurance for these types of buyers, it will kill the condo development industry in Toronto. This will have a bigger economic impact than just a loss of commissions for the agents. Recession with a capital R.

#40 Victor V on 11.15.16 at 7:51 pm

Why Trump raises the odds of a correction in Canada’s housing

http://www.bnn.ca/real-estate/video/why-trump-raises-the-odds-of-a-correction-in-canada-s-housing~995219

We speak with Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. He says that while the Bank of Canada likely has no intention of raising interest rates, if rates rise significantly in the U.S. once Trump outlines his fiscal plans, that puts Vancouver and Toronto housing at a risk.

#41 Bram on 11.15.16 at 7:52 pm

#10 For those about to flop… on 11.15.16 at 6:41 pm
Checked on Zolo in my hood of Fraser

Zolo shows un-weighted averages over all housing types. And per-neighbourhood numbers have far too small sample size too.

Right now, Zolo shows Vancouver avg price +4.4% compared to last month.
Not because houses are a lot more expensive since last month, but because they sold relatively a little more house and a little less condo. That’s it.

#42 traderJim on 11.15.16 at 7:55 pm

I’ll go on record as GUESSING that the loonie will be under 70 cents in the next 6 months, and will probably stay there for the forseeable future.

Not that 85 cents is impossible, just that it’s about as likely as CNN, the NYT and the WP regaining credibility.

#43 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 7:57 pm

Trump to T2

“Hey, T2 what do ya say we build keystone”

“Uh, Uh. Butts, Uh, Uh, Uh , Um, Paris?”

“What the hell are you saying Justin.”

“Uh, Um, I need to think about it, see the problem is my good friend, Um, Uh, Uh. Susulki and Gerold, they , uh , Um. Soros funds , Um, ah,ah my friend Soros is backed by, Um Uh, Um. You know the country that created ISIS , Let me ask my wife what to do president Trump”

“Man up, what are you a pussy Justin”

“Um, Ah, Ah..yes and proudly so Mr Trump”

Well if that little fantasy doesn’t unleash to dogs to 57 james street . Nothing will.

Sorry lefties..I was born man. Bring it..
I fear no god or man.

Nictonites ain’t as smart as ladies. But when you marry a scotch chic that grew up in easter house Glasgow you will wish you where doing something else than knocking on her door.

Trust me. She owns a Glock.

#44 Sydneysider on 11.15.16 at 8:00 pm

“Yesterday Teranet reported an annualized 7.5% reduction in YVR prices”

What they reported was a decline of 0.61% in the last month. Yes, 0.61×12 =7.3%, but it is misleading to describe that as 7.5% annualised, if only because the prices are sitting at a maximum or inflection point (no knowing which right now) so there is no meaning to a linear extrapolation.

The statement is correct. — Garth

#45 Context on 11.15.16 at 8:04 pm

” You ain’t seen nothing yet ” – attributed Douglas Porter.

#46 cto on 11.15.16 at 8:09 pm

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA

My god, what load!!!!
are you one of the most gullible people in Canada or….just a troll?

#47 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.16 at 8:11 pm

RE: “Of course, the new president-elect’s America-first policies could end up hurting Canada, should NAFTA be shredded, effectively leaving our car manufacturing plants out to dry.”

This actually isn’t true. NAFTA killed a number of large Canadian businesses. There are all sorts of 1990’s horror stories about what it did to Ontario manufacturing. NAFTA was one of the causes of the great Toronto real estate “correction” in the early 1990s.

What NAFTA did was end lucrative Canadian/American business “partnerships” whereby American businesses wanting to sell products in Canada, would hire Canadian factories to produce for them, in order to get around the tariffs. Pre NAFTA there was this huge shadow trading in what amounted to cross border manufacturing credits, with businesses on both sides producing “strategically” in order to avoid trade barriers.

Google “Grew Boat works Penetanguishene” if you want a particularly poignant story as to what NAFTA did to our local factories.

All NAFTA really achieved was to cause most of our manufacturing to move south (much of it to Mexico) as it was no longer necessary for American businesses to run shadow factories in Canada if they wanted to sell product here.

#48 jimmyd on 11.15.16 at 8:14 pm

Garth,

I’m completely confused why you’re hating on Kevin O’Leary – do you not both tout the message of investing and renting?

Hair. — Garth

#49 Thank God no Hillery on 11.15.16 at 8:16 pm

#9 whoops must be a loony lefty ,Lizzy you need to put the crack pipe away !

#50 TurnerNation on 11.15.16 at 8:17 pm

It’s over. Houses go always Uppa up?

They rose past 10 years due to record low interest rates.
10 years prior to that was before the GFC.
10 years prior to that you could carry a house on a single income.

That’s why houses went uppa up for past 30 years. It’s over.

#51 Md on 11.15.16 at 8:18 pm

Garth, when you say Canadian bond yields have surged. What exactly does it mean? Is it a good thing?

#52 DIY Meow on 11.15.16 at 8:22 pm

#6 pfddogger
I own some PGX. It’s Suppose to be lower in volitility and better quality. It’s taken a hit the past month so maybe it’s on sale now?

Question to Garth and readers, unlike stocks which ultimately bounces back, are you all anticipating that Bonds will land with a dull thud and stay down for a while? If rates are expected to increase, wouldn’t that give people better dividends and therefore result in bonds rising again?

#53 crossbordershopper on 11.15.16 at 8:24 pm

weed will save canada, were looking at 5 billion a year in tax revenue. coupled with new visa centers in China, and 25,000 people a year coming to canada from the punjab province alone. we will have the 401 turn into a parking lot in 15 years.
real estate go up, sure why not, who cares, its still cold, over taxed, no glue country.
another year is coming to an end, millions of canadians are the exact same position as before, if they are retired, they are still retired, if working, still working, students are students etc.
ethincs will eat craft dinner the rest of their lives before they give back the keys to their house. pride is a good incentive, i know these people, they will keep real estate prices up, labour pay rates down, and change fundamentally what Canada is.
in Canada southern Ontario is everything, no balance like the college in the usa, balanced approach with less populated states with senate, 2 per, regardless of pop. in Canada, its simple, get southern ontario, who cares about saskatchewan or newfoundland, the ethnics couldnt locate them on a map or care even if they are part of canada.

#54 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 8:24 pm

DELETED

#55 No Money Down on 11.15.16 at 8:25 pm

That makes 4…

632 E 20th
Sold July 2016: $1.2M
Currently Listed $1.18M
Legal fees, PTT, commission. Guaranteed loss $82k and counting.

Sellers have bought – Hurry on this one! OPEN SUN. 2-4PM.
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/632-e-20th-avenue

#56 Irish Stew on 11.15.16 at 8:26 pm

NAFTA won’t be shredded – but it should be reviewed.

Mexico charging a VAT of 13% on items going into Mx and not incurring cost coming out is not balanced trade.

#57 GFD on 11.15.16 at 8:30 pm

That’s really great, Elizabeth. Perhaps Canadians should look at the bright side and worship Trudeau for lowering the Age of Consent for anal pleasure. I am puzzled.

#58 SoggyShorts on 11.15.16 at 8:38 pm

#20 preet89 on 11.15.16 at 7:06 pm
It’s not totally fair that now my generation will be seeing interest rates over 4 or 5%.

If all under 30’s were to get a 20% discount on anything that big companies sold, it would only reduce their profits a little bit.
—————————————————-
What utter drivel.
You either get cheap houses or cheap interest rates, not both.

Do you realize that many products have less than a 20% mark-up? Like every single item at costco? Sure Apple might make a lot of money, and be very over-priced, but there’s an easy fix for that–put down your pumpkin spice latte, walk out of that starbucks, and stop buying their crap.

#59 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 8:40 pm

Breaking News

Briebart hires Smoking Man…..

#60 Debtslavecreator on 11.15.16 at 8:40 pm

Preet89
Good lord, what a load of garbage
Since when should corporations be robbed of their profits to help anyone ? As much as I don’t care for god corporate elite taxing corporations DOES NOT WORK. Anyone running a business or doing a simple NPV analysis will see that higher corp taxes merely means that taxed amount will come out from staff, clients, less R&D and less investment
And no, no one is going to help the young when mortgage rates hit 4-5% within 4-5 yrs or less
That is the risk you CHOSE to take out of your free will
I cannot believe the mentality that so many young people have – most have been brainwashed by radical left wing academics … you might hear them describe themselves as “progressive”
The only things they progress is the corruption , amount of debt , the amount of taxes and the destruction of your liberties
Please re think what you write and think critically

#61 MDQ on 11.15.16 at 8:42 pm

>> #6 pfddogger

I was wondering the same thing, check VRP by PowerShares

#62 Dark Matter on 11.15.16 at 8:45 pm

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA on 11.15.16 at 6:41 pm
……………………………………………..
As” Sheldon” would say on “The Big Bang Theory”….Sarcasm,right?”

#63 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 8:45 pm

Milo the next press secretary for the president of the united states. Bring it CNN

https://youtu.be/VyH789neAgI

#64 AGuyInVancouver on 11.15.16 at 8:45 pm

At $1.6 million that dreary postwar tract house in North Vancouver is overvalued by about a million.

#65 Ray Skunk on 11.15.16 at 8:46 pm

I see Preet89 is back from a long hiatus.

He needn’t have bothered.

I get enough gibberish/nonsense/bullshit/trolling at work, I don’t need it here, in my evening sanctuary.

#66 paulo on 11.15.16 at 8:46 pm

Super moon was last nite,seems the loons are out in force tonight

#67 common sense on 11.15.16 at 8:46 pm

Just in…China sets the Yuan at an all time low…..

Soon they will be exporting everything over here for even more to next to nothing…..

US rate hike to make the USD even stronger????

#68 Garthenomics on 11.15.16 at 8:48 pm

It would be a fail to vote for Mr. Wonderful? Then I really appreciate a better option… I would vote for The Garth in a heart beat. What do you say?

#69 Ignorance Is Bliss on 11.15.16 at 8:50 pm

@#20 Preet89

There can’t be anyone who would complain about Apple only making $25 billion profit instead of $50 billion!

-Um, only the shareholders!

Businesses are in business to make money. They will charge what the market will bear. Having said that, I do agree that millennials have it tough. Why do the wrinklies get senior’s discounts everywhere, when a good portion of them are loaded with generous pensions. In London, Ontario, they are now talking about getting rid of the senior’s discount for the transit system and going to a needs-based system where low-income people (of all ages) get a steep discount on an annual bus pass.

#70 Nodebt on 11.15.16 at 8:50 pm

Preet89-when I was 20 I was at 9.62% so boohoo to you and all the young people that want to complain, go out there and work ur ass off and live within ur means worked out great for me!!! Debt free preet!!

#71 Matt on 11.15.16 at 8:51 pm

Preet89: how about not buying apple products?
Historical interest rates are no where near what they are now. You have already have your gift of low interest rates.

#72 the other white meat (pork) on 11.15.16 at 8:54 pm

I’m a bit of a rube, and as such am trying to get some perspective on terms like “surged” and “roiled”. Wonderful images come rushing to mind, but how many tenths of a percent constitute a surge in these market conditions?

#73 Tony on 11.15.16 at 8:55 pm

Its time to get every last cent out of B.C. credit unions when you read something like this.

https://www.highinterestsavings.ca/forum/general-comparisons/200-bonus-when-opening-an-account-at-a-bc-credit-union/

#74 Brent on 11.15.16 at 8:56 pm

Funny thing about stats: if you are selective you can make them say what you want them to say. Vancouver prices are up 22.52% year over year. Garth takes a small loss in October and multiplies by 12.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx

What happened is less important than what is, or will. — Garth

#75 Make up your mind on 11.15.16 at 8:58 pm

Trust me. She owns a Glock.

#44 Sydneysider on 11.15.16 at 8:00 pm
“Yesterday Teranet reported an annualized 7.5% reduction in YVR prices”

What they reported was a decline of 0.61% in the last month. Yes, 0.61×12 =7.3%, but it is misleading to describe that as 7.5% annualised, if only because the prices are sitting at a maximum or inflection point (no knowing which right now) so there is no meaning to a linear extrapolation.

The statement is correct. — Garth

That means houses will be selling for $0 in a decade. Can’t wait.

#76 M on 11.15.16 at 8:58 pm

“Remember. Real estate soared because rates tumbled. Not because it became intrinsically more valuable.”

..and whose fault is that the interest rates tumbled ? Eh Garth ?

#77 Londoner on 11.15.16 at 9:01 pm

…on the expectation Trumpenomics will mean more spending, less tax, accelerated growth, inflation and protectionism.

There’s an argument (not of my own invention) that the increased spending plans by Mr. Trump will have to be financed via long dated treasuries. The implication is that this will require further monetary stimulus from a fully cooperating US Fed. After all, if the path to accelerated growth and inflation was simply fiscal spending then why did it take 10 years to get here?

#78 GFD on 11.15.16 at 9:09 pm

Preet89, do you work for LCBO?

#79 prairie person on 11.15.16 at 9:09 pm

As a home owner in Victoria, I’m most interested in the various figures presented here but I can’t reconcile them with the figures I received today from my brokerage.neighboring cities of both are seeing a surge due to being priced out of the former. Hamilton (+15.0% YoY) and Victoria (+17.9%) in particular highlight this phenomenon. Can someone help explain the discrepancy?

#80 Ronaldo on 11.15.16 at 9:19 pm

#18 Skip Breakfast on 11.15.16 at 7:03 pm

”Can it really be so simple as rates rise and prices drop? I think it really can.”
—————————————————————-
It’s also been stated that interest rates no longer have to rise in order for prices to drop. We have been at emergency interest rates now for 8 years which has caused prices to rise to levels where even Zero interest rates is unaffordable. When a house in the lower mainland for example cost 23 times average family income to own when the normal used to be 2.5 to 3 times, what difference does a drop in interest make? None, still unaffordable. An increase in rates will just make it more unaffordable and will speed up the process of declining prices. That was inevitable. And it doesn’t matter that Christy didn’t want people’s equity to be lost. Going to be lots of very sorry people.

#81 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.15.16 at 9:23 pm

Ok come on man! Which one of you is doing this Elizabeth Smith/nutty fembot character?

Come clean ahole!

PS- Tony go away.

#82 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.15.16 at 9:25 pm

OK come on man! Which one of you A-holes is doing this Elizabeth Smith/nutty fembot character.

PS- Tony go away.

#83 Mark on 11.15.16 at 9:26 pm

<b."To clarify: this is a forward looking statement that extrapolates October’s month-over-month price change. Oct’15 "

Remember that Teranet’s numbers are basically useless unless you’re looking back many, many years. The whole methodology basically creates a low-pass filter which means that price changes have a severe amount of lag. So if Teranet is dropping, those drops actually took place most likely years ago.

#84 Mark on 11.15.16 at 9:28 pm

I’ll go on record as GUESSING that the loonie will be under 70 cents in the next 6 months, and will probably stay there for the forseeable future.

I’ll take the opposite side of the ‘bet’. How do you propose we square this wager? Or better yet, if you have such a belief, why not go into the options market on the CADUSD pair and buy/sell a few contracts as appropriate?

#85 Isuckless on 11.15.16 at 9:29 pm

There is a significant probability that EC will change their mind and elect Hillary
I am not sure that even Smokey could do something to change that (BTW I read SM’s book, funny use of ћирилица)

#86 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 9:30 pm

Got an interview for a gig on Bay street tomorrow.

A code smith genies monkey that will never get an invite to muskoka or earls.

I’m going to be late with a bit of lingering booze breath.

My heart is not in it anymore.

I can spell now.

The canvas is blank. I got a brush. And nothing else matters.

I wrote a book dogs. Feels so good even though no bought it.

https://youtu.be/Tj75Arhq5ho

#87 Fiendish Thingy on 11.15.16 at 9:37 pm

Garth – any thoughts about the announced resignation of the SEC chair (with two years left on her term, why?) to be replaced by a Trump toady who will rubber stamp everything. That along with the imminent repeal of Frank-Dodd, and the financial markets risk turning into a Wild West free-for-all casino.

#88 wut on 11.15.16 at 9:39 pm

“Remember. Real estate soared because rates tumbled. Not because it became intrinsically more valuable. When prices retreat, debt remains. What a week.”

Uh, no. the GTA bull market started long before low rates. With inventories at record lows the bull will hang around a while longer.

Incorrect. Chart it. — Garth

#89 the other white meat (pork) on 11.15.16 at 9:45 pm

What is a house is Vancouver actually worth? The market here has been skewed by so many factors and for so long that figuring out the real world value is kind of difficult. My brain is still stuck in the olden days, when 500k was a lot of money.

#90 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 9:48 pm

DELETED

#91 common sense on 11.15.16 at 9:49 pm

#57 GFD

Perfect…..

Glad everyone is happy now in T2 land.

#92 Yves Prévost on 11.15.16 at 9:57 pm

Since most banks in Canada end their fiscal year on October 31st, it`s not surprising to see rate increases in the following weeks.

TD’s variable rate hike wasn’t followed by other hikes from other lenders and is probably a strategy to rebalance their portfolio.

As for RBC’s hike, well… Everybody is following but it the end of the fiscal year and record profits are being registered. Things should lower as they most often do at the send of the second quarter (April).

#93 Nick on 11.15.16 at 9:57 pm

I beg your pardon, but I believe the cbc report states the following:

5yr @ 25 years is 3.04 %

#94 sideline sitter on 11.15.16 at 9:59 pm

BNS is increasing mortgages tomorrow .25 for any mortgage for a secondary property…. only primary residence will be able to receive their lowest rate.

you heard it here first

#95 Pete on 11.15.16 at 10:04 pm

Garthenomics on 11.15.16 at 8:48 pm
It would be a fail to vote for Mr. Wonderful? Then I really appreciate a better option… I would vote for The Garth in a heart beat. What do you say?
—————————————————————–

I Hate the CONservatives but Garth is not a corporate CONservative but a conservative of the people and corporate scumbag harper hated Garth since he was looking out for the peoples pocket books rather then greedy corporate interests. Garth should be the PM of Canada.

#96 Tigidou on 11.15.16 at 10:05 pm

I read that lenders got 3 times more requests last week than usual. People don’t want to miss out on the bottom in rates… thing is… they may have rushed to buy at the higher prices.

I’m glad I stuck to renting and put a chunk of every paycheck in U.S banks. BMO has this ETF that has an MER of about 0.25% called $ZUB. It’s hedged so if OIL rips back up, you don’t get affected by the rise of the loonie. Wishful thinking?

Canadian banks are doing great too. So much for the american crusade against them.

#97 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 10:06 pm

DELETED

#98 Context on 11.15.16 at 10:07 pm

#66 Paulo:- My dog has been howling since last night. She ran through the kitchen a few hours ago where a delivery of 2L Pepsi containers were on the floor and knocked one over. It exploded leaving a mess for me to clean up.

#99 Denise#1 on 11.15.16 at 10:13 pm

Geez people…Preet89 #20 and Elizabeth Smith, CPA #9 are just trolls. Ignore them.

#100 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 10:15 pm

To SJW world over

https://youtu.be/PfAWReBmxEs

#101 ShawnG in TO on 11.15.16 at 10:16 pm

> if you are a commissioned salesguy
not applicable to me

> or have a credit score lower than six times your IQ
hahaha, good thing my IQ is 50

> or plan to ever vote for Kevin O’Leary
I’m not that stupid !

#102 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 10:21 pm

To the wife

https://youtu.be/2zf9zrrPWEE

#103 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 10:30 pm

I new a hooker named Nancy

https://youtu.be/5gQZUUHULco

#104 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 10:37 pm

When you give no shit about anything.

You made it to the finsish line. Not saying you were first. But you made it inspite of the demons.

Nothing else matters.

#105 Balmuto on 11.15.16 at 10:40 pm

#63 Smoking Man

Milo strikes me as more of a performance artist than anything else. Someone who’s sole conviction is that everybody is a hypocrite, and the most sanctimonious hypocrites right now are on the left, so he’s going after them to expose their hypocrisy to the world. However when he talks about wanting conservatives to win the culture wars, I wonder if he really means it, or understands what that means. If he thinks social conservatives are completely Ok with who he is – well, he’s very naive. If he’s just trying to promote fiscal conservatism – a) that’s not what Donald Trump is about and b) that has nothing to do with winning the culture wars. But I guess the backlash to political correctness has made for some strange bedfellows.

#106 Fiendish Thingy on 11.15.16 at 10:42 pm

Not everybody in the finance world is bullish on a Trump economy:

http://blog.pimco.com/2016/11/14/mr-market-dr-strangelove-and-president-trump/

Garth, what happened to my question about the resignation of the SEC chair?

#107 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.15.16 at 10:49 pm

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA on 11.15.16 at 6:41 pm

Winner! Best troll post of the night. Lol

#108 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 10:50 pm

A lefty bad day.

https://youtu.be/0jWfKIaVRvM

#109 Guillaume on 11.15.16 at 10:50 pm

What about a Canadian listed ETF replicating crude oil index ? It should take advantage of global economic growth, high US dollar, and would also be a good protection if inflation goes up and Canadian dollar goes down ?

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA

kathleen wynne is posting a comment on your site Garth, some of your last posts have awakened the beast !

#110 Trev on 11.15.16 at 11:02 pm

It’s happened here in the Nation’s capital Garth …

The Condo unit I’m renting was repo’d by the bank a year ago, and finally put up for sale in July (at about a 20k discount on a previous sale in the building for a similar unit). One price cut of 10k and the listing expired after 90 days. Bank has decided to relist it, now at a 30k discount from their original list (or 50k from the previous sale).

We’ll see how this one goes given the mortgage changes & the bond market….

#111 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.15.16 at 11:03 pm

Popular vote irrelevant and is less than 1m difference between Trump and Clinton.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10174

The size of a tiny California suburb. Which is where it probably came from anyway.

#112 preet89 on 11.15.16 at 11:04 pm

#69 Ignorance Is Bliss:

“I do agree that millennials have it tough. Why do the wrinklies get senior’s discounts everywhere, when a good portion of them are loaded with generous pensions.”

EXACTLY!!!

Our generation didn’t ask to be born – it’s the older generations responsibility to help out the ones behind them. If my generation can’t be successful, how will the one behind us be?

It’s easy for a wrinklie to sit there on their millions that they saved from hardly paying any interest on their loans. The only good thing going for us is that we will at least inherit a bunch of money from our parents. But it’s hard to know when that will be so all we ask if for a little help in the meantime.

#113 cramar on 11.15.16 at 11:06 pm

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA on 11.15.16 at 6:41 pm

————————–

Sad to say, but this post makes me believe that Smoking Man is correct. You are proof that the educational system in Ontario produces mindless drones.

#114 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 11:09 pm

Sky pilot team song

https://youtu.be/lroU7apzma8

#115 Chris on 11.15.16 at 11:14 pm

I would say GTA housing price increase is in part due to low interest rate but not all. Most new comers end up in GTA. It is not the center of the universe but kind of the only city in Canada in a lot of new comers’ eyes. People must have done a reaLly lousy job projecting demand that supply is always outstripped by demand.

#116 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 11:15 pm

I was young

https://youtu.be/ur30bn_3G58

#117 Tony on 11.15.16 at 11:17 pm

#2 & #33
In that case, I humbly apologize, Garth. Keep up the good work as well as the honesty.

Tony

#118 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 11:20 pm

https://youtu.be/H4PqY-VgSsI

#119 Yaba daba screwed on the west coast on 11.15.16 at 11:23 pm

Can anyone riddle me this? Multiple offers and over asking on almost all sales here on Vancouver Island? All the BS in Van is translating to foreign money and boomers flooding to the island apparently. Thanks Gov. all these new restriction are hurting here on the coast in all the “unintended ways”? What’s next? Larger downs? Thanks again Christie and Justin.

#120 Braj on 11.15.16 at 11:24 pm

#59 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 8:40 pm
Breaking News

Briebart hires Smoking Man…..

You’re not joking are you..

#121 Braj on 11.15.16 at 11:33 pm

#109 preet89 on 11.15.16 at 11:04 pm
#69 Ignorance Is Bliss:

“I do agree that millennials have it tough. Why do the wrinklies get senior’s discounts everywhere, when a good portion of them are loaded with generous pensions.”

EXACTLY!!!

Our generation didn’t ask to be born – it’s the older generations responsibility to help out the ones behind them. If my generation can’t be successful, how will the one behind us be?

It’s easy for a wrinklie to sit there on their millions that they saved from hardly paying any interest on their loans. The only good thing going for us is that we will at least inherit a bunch of money from our parents. But it’s hard to know when that will be so all we ask if for a little help in the meantime.

No. It’s your responsibility to take care of yourself. You make your own success, it cannot be given to you in any way, shape or form. In fact, likely any ‘help’ will make you further deluded and make it harder to find purpose. Success is a truly personal thing. “Freedom First”.

This is me assuming you’re not a troll. Which you definitely seem like.

#122 Tony on 11.15.16 at 11:43 pm

I forgot to ask, my wife and I are considering buying a house in Montreal or Quebec City. Anyone here have any stats on the size of the housing bubble, if any, in these two cities? Notable for detached homes over 1m$… We get told by realtors there is no bubble here and house prices will not come down significantly, should we buy into that?

#123 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.16.16 at 12:06 am

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA on 11.15.16 at 6:41 pm
————————————————-
Belly laughs!!!
I’m starting to enjoy you!

#124 macroman on 11.16.16 at 12:10 am

#9 Lizzie, Certifiable Professional Ass

Hah!

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.16 at 12:10 am

Sorry to disagree respectfully.
But, with Canada and the US being awash in debt I can’t see how raising rates can square the circle.

#126 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.16.16 at 12:16 am

<blockquote#161 Renter's Revenge! on 11.15.16 at 12:48 pm
#127 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.15.16 at 10:08 am
I’m wondering what the replacement cost of that house in Cape Breton would be?

New construction costs in Kelowna have gone nuts. Try crank that back when the market tanks. Prices are fluid on the way up and oh so sticky on the way down… especially when it comes to that big component of new construction… labour costs.

=================================

In the aftermath, desperate construction companies and workers will eventually accept lower wages, or go out of business.

We just need to grind ’em down };-)

You do understand I was speaking generalities – all labour costs. If just the construction worker segment is forced to accept lower wages you can expect, eventually, so too will you. You get this… right?

#127 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.16.16 at 12:17 am

#161 Renter’s Revenge! on 11.15.16 at 12:48 pm
#127 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.15.16 at 10:08 am
I’m wondering what the replacement cost of that house in Cape Breton would be?

New construction costs in Kelowna have gone nuts. Try crank that back when the market tanks. Prices are fluid on the way up and oh so sticky on the way down… especially when it comes to that big component of new construction… labour costs.

=================================

In the aftermath, desperate construction companies and workers will eventually accept lower wages, or go out of business.

We just need to grind ’em down };-)

You do understand I was speaking generalities – all labour costs. If just the construction worker segment is forced to accept lower wages you can expect, eventually, so too will you. You get this… right?

#128 bb on 11.16.16 at 12:26 am

Kevin O’Leary – Canada’s Donald Trump.

#129 Joe2.0 on 11.16.16 at 1:03 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-14/world-s-biggest-real-estate-binge-is-coming-to-a-city-near-you

#130 Video online on 11.16.16 at 1:04 am

thanks for sharing it.

#131 chelsea on 11.16.16 at 1:07 am

Homes still over valued in B.C…. no matter what percentage they fall … you only have to check the B.C. Assessment to reveal the true value of the land and home. It really does not make any sense in what the assessment says if the sellers are asking triple the asking price. Pure greed, and dishonesty. I hope the whole RE collapses into a putrid fire and brimstone.

Cheers

#132 Joe2.0 on 11.16.16 at 1:13 am

Loads of money flowing into Victoria and Sunshine Coast.
Realtor had a Chinese interpreter speaking directly to a client in China somewhere.

#133 Island Watcher on 11.16.16 at 1:58 am

Can anyone riddle me this? Multiple offers and over asking on almost all sales here on Vancouver Island? All the BS in Van is translating to foreign money and boomers flooding to the island apparently. Thanks Gov. all these new restriction are hurting here on the coast in all the “unintended ways”? What’s next? Larger downs? Thanks again Christie and Justin

—————–
Cue for VREU! The scenario you outlined in so Spring 2016 on Vancouver Island. Sales have dropped but inventory is low. In my community surrounding Victoria we saw a 20% spike in the Spring but it slowed down in the summer and no new sales after the fed mortgage changes. Everyone is waiting and seeing and houses are on the market longer; prices are being reduced; and slowly coming back to where they started their pop from. Its gone no bid and that’s dangerous because the headwinds of mortgage changes and rising rates points prices in one direction….

The regions outlying a bubble center are always the last to rise and usually the first to fall for the reasons that you state. Buyers in the major centers stop buying meaning less people cashing out to surrounding areas. You have to remember that surrounding communities had lower prices to begin with for a reason!

#134 Freedom First on 11.16.16 at 1:58 am

When prices retreat, debt remains.-Garth

Never thought of it this way before, but when I read this sentence my mind automatically replaced the word debt with the word shit. Most people cannot be trusted with debt. Fact. Look at Canadians shit levels in every area.

Was also just musing about my emotional maturity from when I was a young person. The very fact that I could look at everything in my life from an emotionless Freedom First vantage point, and yet, be such a caring, compassionate, and empathetic human being.

Just a reminder that I am really really glad that Hillary lost. She couldn’t fool the Americans. They even chose Trump over her. Fair and square.

#135 AJ69er on 11.16.16 at 2:11 am

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA

Got an MBA just to get a CMA? Couldn’t hack the UFE? What a waste.

#136 So much uncertainty... on 11.16.16 at 2:59 am

It has been many years since I read here and elsewhere about so much uncertainty economically.

I appreciate your posts Garth but the good/bad news seems to change day by day. Too much second guessing.

If RE does take a very negative valuation hit in Canada, Trump wants to repatriate jobs from Canada/Mexico to the US, rates increase, latest Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute goes against us, etc. – then we are headed for a recession.

The psychology of what I read recently is not good, fear based thinking far too prevalent. All that fear needs now is some negative economic reality to fuel it.

Trudeau embarking on short-term and destined to fail, as history has shown us time and time again, Keynsian economic stimulus. $80 billion or so, down the tubes, praying short term stimulus will tide us over until GDP increases on its own.

That is gambling; thus, a 50-50 probability he will be seen as a Saviour or as a Bum.

Keep steering the ship here thru the rough seas to come Garth.

bsant

#137 DON on 11.16.16 at 3:33 am

#38 traderJim on 11.15.16 at 7:50 pm

#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA and all around amazing person.

I hope that’s not your real identity…

The one thing my study of Economics (MA, Queens) taught me was that economics cannot predict the future.

Imagine that, economists can’t predict the future, who knew?

The second I see someone proclaiming that there is ‘proof’ that x will happen in the future, especially regarding prices of stocks, bonds and most of all currencies, I know with 100% certainty that they completely lack credibility.

You can’t even recognize the fab city of Montreal, whose Schwartz’s deli alone makes it worth a visit. (There are a few other sights to see in Montreal, but this is a family blog I assume).

I really do hope that was a troll post, otherwise our school boards are in deeper trouble than I thought.
**********

Nicely put Trader…

On your last note: our schools are in deep trouble. Lots of educated people with their heads in the sand.

Look at this comment from above:

” #20 preet89 on 11.15.16 at 7:06 pm

Things need to be done right away to help my generation.

Justin should put something in place that limits the interest rates that 29 year old and under’s can only have. That way we will get a chance to enjoy things the way the previous generations have. It’s not totally fair that now my generation will be seeing interest rates over 4 or 5%.”

Not sure what to say here?

#138 DON on 11.16.16 at 3:54 am

#115 Yaba daba screwed on the west coast on 11.15.16 at 11:23 pm

Can anyone riddle me this? Multiple offers and over asking on almost all sales here on Vancouver Island? All the BS in Van is translating to foreign money and boomers flooding to the island apparently. Thanks Gov. all these new restriction are hurting here on the coast in all the “unintended ways”? What’s next? Larger downs? Thanks again Christie and Justin.
)))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Yikes…an no link to your stats indicating “almost all sales…”

Select areas are always in demand. The outskirts are the ones to watch.

#139 Aegal on 11.16.16 at 6:58 am

Please enlighten me about the whole “One asset strategy” here. If I understand that concept correctly, it is supposed to be wiser to have a 500 000$ house with 250k in mortgage and another 250k in ETFs than to have that house fully paid right ?. The question is why ?
In terms of risk, if the housing market goes down by let’s say 20%, in both cases the net lost is 100k no matter the diversification. In Garth’s post, that old dude would have lost the same net value would he have borrowed against the house and invested the amount.

If housing and stock market would be inversely correlated I guess diversification would then make sense, but they are not.
So, while I get that ETFs are far far more liquid than a pile of brick, I dont really see a big advantage to not having a full paid house VS “diversification” (that is in terms of risk, not speaking of returns).

Any input ?
(sorry for spelling, English is not my first language).

#140 Oakville Sucks on 11.16.16 at 7:16 am

CBC Toronto in the 6:40am segment of the show this morning gave a detailed analysis of rates, housing market etc.

Did anyone hear it?

#141 maxx on 11.16.16 at 7:40 am

#20 preet89 on 11.15.16 at 7:06 pm

Life, just like space and most especially business, does not mold to individual circumstance.
Your “generation” is simply going to have to EARN, save and manage its way to wealth.
Wealth accumulation goes to those who effort the cause, not those looking for a handout.

Flush the sense of entitlement, it will keep you poor forever. Plus, it’s a very close cousin to begging.

#142 maxx on 11.16.16 at 7:44 am

#23 Arfmooocat on 11.15.16 at 7:10 pm

“Shipping stocks which have totally sucked for the last years are going insane.

DRYS has gone stupid… from $4 to $100 in days”

Christmas blip?

#143 Randy on 11.16.16 at 8:01 am

Not only is politics rigged, pretty much all markets are rigged. The Globalists can collapse everything when they want to.

Please tell us you do not actually believe that. — Garth

#144 traderJim on 11.16.16 at 8:02 am

#84 Mark

Happy to oblige.

Please tell me your prediction for the loonie and time-frames, and we’ll see if we can formalize a bet, although I am happy to let our recorded predictions here do the talking.

I once won several thousand dollars playing poker at uni and the loser did not pay, whereas I would have paid had I lost, so I do not make bets these days without cash on the table.

I doubt Garth would want to be in the middle, but if he does I am happy to make,say, a $1,000 bet with Garth holding the cash from each and paying out the winner at the end.

If Garth won’t do it, I trust Smoking Man too. He seems to be a guy you can count on.

I am on record (this blog) BEFORE the election saying I was shorting the loonie, it was a rare trading setup where you almost could not lose.

I am new here but I understand you are on record stating repeatedly that the loonie will rise? So far I believe I am winning.

A day or two ago I repeated here my intention to increase my short CAD position on any little rebound caused by the frequent, short lived, oil bounces.

Years ago I converted about 90% of my investment portfolio to USD, based on both the idea that the loonie would weaken from above par, and also that there are more choice and better quality investments on US exchanges.

I also have a property outside of Canada that is priced in USD, and the income I get from it is in USD. Sometimes I hedge both the value of the property and my income stream using FXC calls.

I sometimes convert the USD income to CAD using DLR, as I explained here as well. I do have to live on something, since I have not had a paycheck since I turned 47 and retired.

So my foreign property is a ‘natural’ short on the loonie, since I still am a resident of Canada. It’s basically a USD investment. When I eventually sell it, I will be much better off the lower the loonie is.

To hedge my (over 7 figure) short CAD position I often trade in and out using FXC calls. If you see someone buying deep in the money FXC calls, there’s a good chance it’s me. Not much liquidity there, and I buy 10 to 50 contracts at a time.

Sometimes I sell naked FXC calls to play short term, yesterday for example I sold 10 FXC 16NOV18 70 calls at 3.40.

(I usually sell just out of the money calls, but sometimes in or at the money works too.)

I’ll hope to cover those today around 2.80 for a quick $600 profit. Not bad for a day’s work. Just one of many trades, but some I win, some I lose.

So far I am up well over $400k being short the loonie the last few years. Not bad for a part-time job.

So I am short the loonie just over 7 figures Mark. What’s your position?

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.16 at 8:15 am

@#46 cto
“are you one of the most gullible people in Canada or….just a troll?”
*******************************************

Just a troll.

Shows up about once a week under a different name(usually a female name so its probably a guy) to do the predictable “Toronto is the center of the Universe….” drivel and then sits back and watches the show.

Reading the post and then replying is a waste of electrons.

#146 IHCTD9 on 11.16.16 at 8:19 am

#20 preet89 on 11.15.16 at 7:06 pm
Things need to be done right away to help my generation.

Justin should put something in place that limits the interest rates that 29 year old and under’s can only have. That way we will get a chance to enjoy things the way the previous generations have. It’s not totally fair that now my generation will be seeing interest rates over 4 or 5%.

____________________________________________

Serious?

Young millennials working thru a haphazard “gig” career should consider themselves lucky to get loaned any money at all for anything.

Previous generations also enjoyed things like 18% mortgage rates. Are you going to cover a rebate for them?

#147 traderJim on 11.16.16 at 8:20 am

#133 Don

I am quite familiar with how much trouble our education system is in, since I have family members in various roles within it.

When I was a college student my family connections got me a part time job at the Board of Ed, and I saw first hand the waste, laziness and total culture of entitlement by nearly all, from the top down.

I was a financial advisor for some time (after trading burned me out) and I saw a lot of people with government pensions as well.

A typical OMERS or Hydro pension once it is paying out would include an annual statement that would state (for example):

Your total contributions to date: (say over a 30 year working period) : $47,000
Your benefits paid out to date: $573,000

Public employee unions are very clever. They hide the outrageous sums being paid to members by putting them into gold plated pensions that private employees could only dream of.

No one wants to bother to look into complicated pension details to see the truth.

Journalists are too lazy or just not bright enough to look into it. (Although I think a few reports are finally sneaking out these days. About 20 years after the fact.)

#148 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.16 at 8:23 am

@#106 Guillame

Re “#9 Elizabeth Smith, CPA
kathleen wynne is posting a comment on your site Garth, some of your last posts have awakened the beast !
*******************************************

Good one.

#149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.16 at 8:27 am

@#118 Tony
I cant say which market is cheaper. Mtl or Que.
But Quebec City is booming right now .
Unemployment rate is 4.6%.
Tied with Victoria BC for the lowest in Canada

#150 IHCTD9 on 11.16.16 at 8:38 am

#118 Tony on 11.15.16 at 11:43 pm
I forgot to ask, my wife and I are considering buying a house in Montreal or Quebec City. Anyone here have any stats on the size of the housing bubble, if any, in these two cities? Notable for detached homes over 1m$… We get told by realtors there is no bubble here and house prices will not come down significantly, should we buy into that?
_______________________________________

Montreal is a dying city and experiencing population loss. You can Google the details.

RE prices will go down there no doubt about it.

#151 The American on 11.16.16 at 9:04 am

At #9: Elizabeth, that’s some funny shit you wrote there! “Toronto is a global superpower city and our economy is stable.” and “Our middle class in Canada is richer than the 1% in the States.” LMFAO

Really? I hope you were writing that in the satyrical sense of your words.

#152 traderJim on 11.16.16 at 9:06 am

Montreal is one of the best cities in summer, but not so great in winter. They have real winter there.

The Montreal Jazz Festival is one of the most enjoyable festivals in the world, in my experience only the Edinburgh Festival beats it. I once saw, in a small venue, Steve Winwood, Tito Puente and Arturo Sandoval perform together. Fantastic.

Quebec city would be great if you don’t mind winter or if you are able to head south.

Me, I’m thinking of heading to the USA myself, to help offset the ‘massive’ flow of Americans heading north to escape Trump. I think if I can get a buddy to come with me we will have completely balanced things.

#153 falseprophet on 11.16.16 at 9:13 am

Is it time that stipulate that newcomers with certain skill-sets settle somewhere specific (for a time period) and where need is greatest? (not our already stressed urban centres)

#154 maxx on 11.16.16 at 9:15 am

#39 Hotdogs from Heaven on 11.15.16 at 7:51 pm

“SFH’s are one thing, but here in the big stink as Garth wrote a few days ago, we sell tens of thousands of condos every year and his blog mentioned that developers provided numbers showing that 52% of all sales of new condos were to speculators/investors, but NOT people who would live in them themselves.

Now that the new mortgage rules will NOT provide cheap rates and insurance for these types of buyers, it will kill the condo development industry in Toronto. This will have a bigger economic impact than just a loss of commissions for the agents. Recession with a capital R.”

Nope. No recession. None.
Just a re-tailoring of an obese, terminally unhealthy condo market.
Fools who drank the condo cocktail by the gallon deserve to take a fiscal bath. The economy will, in short order morph to better health, continue improving and and perhaps most importantly, move on as the economy absolutely needs to distance itself from the perilous scaffolding of re currently “supporting” it.
We need higher rates, administered slowly and carefully to get the entire population spending again in ALL sectors of the economy.

#155 Ole Doberman on 11.16.16 at 9:22 am

Does anyone have observations to share about Calgary?

I think prices still haven’t budged much.

#156 jess on 11.16.16 at 9:34 am

Morneau chided for ‘arrogant’ remarks on “precarious” labour. Morneau suggested precarious work is here to stay, and that Canadians and their governments better get used to it.Some 52 per cent of workers in the GTA and Hamilton region, for example, are precariously employed in temporary, contract or part-time positions. These same trends are playing out in cities across Canada and beyond.
=====================

precarious work /brexit voters?
More than 7m Britons now in precarious employment
As part of the Guardian series on the UK’s increasingly uncertain world of work, analysis of official figures reveals more than one in five workers could lose their jobs at short or no notice
===================
very sad indeed
Read How they do it temp (exploit ) recruitment agencies

In the first of a series on the UK’s increasingly precarious world of work, a Guardian investigation uncovers the use of ‘contrived’ financial arrangements to slash national insurance bills
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/15/more-than-7m-britons-in-precarious-employment

#157 maxx on 11.16.16 at 9:35 am

#26 Doug t on 11.15.16 at 7:24 pm

“#9 Elizabeth

WTF LMFAO – you take the “winner winner chicken dinner” prize for that entry”

Hope the **current** employer doesn’t read it, nor the CPA community at large- YIKES.

#158 Alex on 11.16.16 at 9:58 am

#4 Earlybird

Actually there is NO 100% inverse correlation between RE price and mortgage rates, look at graph – there was a time when price rose with rate rising and falling with rates falling, as well as opposite…

http://dipettamortgage.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/prime-rate-vs-average-toronto-home-prices.png

I think you need new glasses. — Garth

#159 IHCTD9 on 11.16.16 at 10:02 am

#149 falseprophet on 11.16.16 at 9:13 am
Is it time that stipulate that newcomers with certain skill-sets settle somewhere specific (for a time period) and where need is greatest? (not our already stressed urban centres)
_________________________

This has been talked about, it has been mentioned by folks in government. Don’t really see it happening. Is that even legal? How are you going to Police this -folks could just move out later on. Chances of immigrant success vary greatly with location, if you just dumped a family from Syria out my way, they would fail even if the government incinerated a million a year trying to get them started.

I’ve thought about this potential at length and pretty much came to the conclusion that, all things considered – immigrants will continue to migrate to where they want to live/best chances.

That means the GTA will continue to get a good 50% of all immigration to Canada.

Obviously this is not the time for it, but T2 knows what’s best. The GTA is horrible right now – 5 quick years could potentially see a million more folks jammed into the enclaves – what a shit show that would be! No one is going to want to drive within 100 miles of Toronto if this comes to pass.

#160 Tudval on 11.16.16 at 10:12 am

Wow, all that bad stuff happened in the bond markets and we are back to where we were in February? If this keeps going on, we may go back to January, maybe even to last year’s pricing!

Mortgage rates go up tomorrow and the federal hammer came for but three weeks ago. Patience. — Garth

#161 Prairieboy43 on 11.16.16 at 10:25 am

Preet89 does have a point. Interest rates need to rise to 7-9%. Home prices will collapse, making for affordable Real Estate. Retirees (that saved), will retire earning interest on their savings. Retirees will exit work force. Jobs will open up for millennials.
However governments will go broke (no sufficient funds to cover debt interest). Default.
Culprit is Government spending. Preet89, take your fight against government mismanagement.

#162 Wrk.dover on 11.16.16 at 11:03 am

m
Please enlighten me about the whole “One asset strategy” here. If I understand that concept correctly, it is supposed to be wiser to have a 500 000$ house with 250k in mortgage and another 250k in ETFs than to have that house fully paid right ?. The question is why ?
In terms of risk, if the housing market goes down by let’s say 20%, in both cases the net lost is 100k no matter the diversification. In Garth’s post, that old dude would have lost the same net value would he have borrowed against the house and invested the amount.

If housing and stock market would be inversely correlated I guess diversification would then make sense, but they are not.
So, while I get that ETFs are far far more liquid than a pile of brick, I dont really see a big advantage to not having a full paid house VS “diversification” (that is in terms of risk, not speaking of returns).

Any input ?
(sorry for spelling, English is not my first language).

The way it supposed to work is, you make big money on investments even after the interest due on your mortgage ( against the house, but on the investments) is removed from the profit. In USA the mortgage interest is actually deductible from your income at taxation time. Here we sometimes just pretend we are gaining by risking our home principal to make money by borrowing against it.

I know an old man in Arizona, that moved into an assisted care facility with his ailing wife, who died after a couple of years of living there. The Workers there then told him he no longer belonged there and to move out and get a life because he has excellent health. So, he bought a condo with a thirty year mortgage, at 83 years old.

He obviously has a good pension and a bag of securities as collateral which he could have used to just buy the condo outright, but that would be ‘un-American’.

When the investments loose their value and the house becomes worth less than the loan ‘2008 happens’.

On this side of the border it will be, ‘when 2017 happens’, that we catch up to that American dream.

#163 Wrk.dover on 11.16.16 at 11:04 am

edit the first half of that is from #135

#164 Damifino on 11.16.16 at 11:09 am

#124 bb

“Kevin O’Leary – Canada’s Donald Trump.”
——————————–

Not Quite. O’Leary is an adult.

#165 mike from mtl on 11.16.16 at 11:14 am

RE: #146 IHCTD9 on 11.16.16 at 8:38 am

Montreal is a dying city and experiencing population loss. You can Google the details.

RE prices will go down there no doubt about it.
====================================

Agreed on the first point but the population loss is more the ‘natives’, we have a large amount of immigration to cover that up. Not that I agree with that.

About RE declines, given I grew up here, even with TWO near separation referendums and 40 years stagnation. Never have I seen or heard of any significant RE decline. May take 3-6 months to sell but hardly a loss.

#166 Barb on 11.16.16 at 11:18 am

149 falseprophet on 11.16.16 at 9:13 am

Is it time that stipulate that newcomers with certain skill-sets settle somewhere specific (for a time period) and where need is greatest? (not our already stressed urban centres)

——————————————————

Gawd, are you serious?
Haven’t there been enough gov’t screw-ups to satisfy you?

#167 Oakville Sucks on 11.16.16 at 11:19 am

http://www.cbc.ca/player/radio/Local%20Shows/Ontario/Metro%20Morning

Listen to “Trump Bump” story from today on housing analysis by CBC (Communist Broadcasting Central)

#168 Context on 11.16.16 at 11:28 am

#148 trader Jim:- Do not leave yet or you will miss the biggest party in North America located in Quebec City from January 27 – February 12, 2017. Its called the Quebec Winter Carnival and you need to make your reservations now as the Americans will be there by the thousands. It becomes a lawless venue with hotel parties to crash; the streets will be filled with bottles of joy as the booze stores never close; and there will be dancing in the streets.

#169 dm in c on 11.16.16 at 11:33 am

Sorry Preet89, I am GenX, so neither moister or wrinklie, and no one helped us — our first house in 1999 we had 8.25% mortgage rate. No one boo hoo’d for us. We just did it.

Suck it up, princess and go troll somewhere else.

#170 For those about to flop... on 11.16.16 at 11:35 am

Just saw this story on CNN,thought I’d relay it.

Berkshire Hathaway invests major moola in 3 of the big four American Airlines…

M42BC

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-invests-major-airlines-43533189

#171 Oakville Sucks on 11.16.16 at 11:37 am

#139 Randy on 11.16.16 at 8:01 am
Not only is politics rigged, pretty much all markets are rigged. The Globalists can collapse everything when they want to.

Please tell us you do not actually believe that. — Garth

*********************************
I do believe what he’s saying….

A relative considered a “Mover and Shaker” in Canada/Policy is really a PION.

His “Policy” went “against the grain” and got demoted so fast by the REAL movers and shakers of this world.

Conspiracy theorist may be right in this instant.

#172 DisgustMMP on 11.16.16 at 11:38 am

#20 preet89 on 11.15.16 at 7:06 pm
Things need to be done right away to help my generation.

Oh good grief.. Can hardly read this pulp.

Poor you.. And all you’ll get is what’s in the will?

#173 NoName on 11.16.16 at 12:18 pm

#149 falseprophet on 11.16.16 at 9:13 am
Is it time that stipulate that newcomers with certain skill-sets settle somewhere specific (for a time period) and where need is greatest? (not our already stressed urban centres)

—-

about that where the need is greatest, just imagine how loud you woud cry, if gov. was settling new ones in alberta in last 10+ years, and getting all immigrants would be getting those 100k+OT jobs. what would you say: “immigrants are steel ing our well paid jobs.” just guessing…

is that you trt?

#174 james on 11.16.16 at 12:25 pm

#86 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 9:30 pm
Got an interview for a gig on Bay street tomorrow.
A code smith genies monkey that will never get an invite to muskoka or earls.
I’m going to be late with a bit of lingering booze breath.
My heart is not in it anymore.
I can spell now.
The canvas is blank. I got a brush. And nothing else matters.
I wrote a book dogs. Feels so good even though no bought it.
https://youtu.be/Tj75Arhq5ho
………………………………………………………………
Why the hell would a self made millionaire go to an interview for a gig on Bay Street? I work there and most who make it big never return. Burned out and all. So why do you want back in the game Smoking Man? Oh and why do you need an interview most of our hirees are via recommendation from our peers.

#175 InvestorsFriend on 11.16.16 at 12:31 pm

House Price Index

#83 Mark on 11.15.16 at 9:26 pm said:

Remember that Teranet’s numbers are basically useless unless you’re looking back many, many years. The whole methodology basically creates a low-pass filter which means that price changes have a severe amount of lag. So if Teranet is dropping, those drops actually took place most likely years ago.

***********************************

Really? This from Mark who never ever seems to post a link to any actual data or charts or anything to back up his off the top of his head comments.

And what does “low-pass filter” mean? What is a reader to understand from this? If Teranet’s data is lagged why not explain how the methodology works in, you know, plain English.

To help you out, here is a link to their methodology page:

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

Yes, they use the words low-pass filter there. But can you demonstrate an understanding of how the data is lagged by explaining the issue in plain English? Why parrot some mathematical words that don’t explain the problem?

The basic Teranet system is to compare the price of houses sold lately with the price of the same house last time it sold, no? Explain how any better index would work.

Unfortunately the same houses don’t sell every month which would give an ideal index.

Or do you just not like the result of the index?

#176 n1tro on 11.16.16 at 12:33 pm

“-Elizabeth Smith, CPA (2015), CMA, MBA (University of Toronto, 2012), Internal Auditor for a large school board in the Greater Toronto Area.”

Is the above a female equivalent of men whipping “it” out and measuring?

#177 Renter's Revenge! on 11.16.16 at 12:43 pm

#122 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.16.16 at 12:16 am
#161 Renter’s Revenge! on 11.15.16 at 12:48 pm
#127 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.15.16 at 10:08 am
I’m wondering what the replacement cost of that house in Cape Breton would be?

New construction costs in Kelowna have gone nuts. Try crank that back when the market tanks. Prices are fluid on the way up and oh so sticky on the way down… especially when it comes to that big component of new construction… labour costs.

=================================

In the aftermath, desperate construction companies and workers will eventually accept lower wages, or go out of business.

We just need to grind ’em down };-)

===================================

You do understand I was speaking generalities – all labour costs. If just the construction worker segment is forced to accept lower wages you can expect, eventually, so too will you. You get this… right?

===================================

No, I don’t. Please explain. In fact, I believe my wages will go uppa up no matter what happens in the economy };-)

#178 Sunshine on 11.16.16 at 12:57 pm

Was at the bank yesterday (in Edmonton) purchasing TSFAs (bonus interest rate for a short time only!) and the advisor told me her job is so depressing she goes home and cries most nights. Folks constantly coming in asking/begging for more money and she can’t help them out because they are already in so much debt. Sad days are here.

#179 TRT on 11.16.16 at 1:01 pm

How is this not racist?

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/13011856

#180 IHCTD9 on 11.16.16 at 1:02 pm

I wonder if the bond market is going to end up putting a kink in DJT’s spending plans?

What about T2’s?

#181 For those about to flop... on 11.16.16 at 1:19 pm

Just noticed this house has been put back on the market.
I live a couple of blocks away.

Has been listed and removed already this year.
The last time for less than two weeks.

They are asking 1,788,000 ,approximately 1/2 a million dollars over assessment.

Sign me up…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMjlSWg==

#182 Victor V on 11.16.16 at 1:28 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canada-expects-britain-to-be-part-of-eu-trade-deal-morneau/article32870310/

During the conference, Mr. Morneau was asked about foreign ownership of housing in Canada and whether recent restrictions have curtailed the market. He explained that the British Columbia government has put a 15 per cent tax on homes bought by foreigners in Vancouver and the federal government has moved to ensure foreigners are not abusing the capital gains tax exemptions on the sale of principle residents. “The measures are too soon for us to come to conclusions,” he said.

Mr. Morneau then made a pitch for foreigners to buy property in Canada. “We are absolutely open to foreigners investing in Canada in all areas and real estate is no different. We just want to make sure that the playing field is consistent,” he told the conference. “So as I said in a little round table I was at before this, if any of you are interested in buying second homes in Canada there’s lots of beautiful spaces to do that. We’d be happy to welcome you.”

#183 Grey Dog on 11.16.16 at 1:34 pm

Update from last night’s post…I guess sometimes neighbours listen to Garth’s blog dogs. Home was SOLD overnight! A record was made in our little Uville enclave. Truth: I did send Garth’s recent posts noting to SELL NOW out of GTA and Toronto.

Me, I’m hanging around, cause I’m not depending on my home to finance our retirement. Husband retiring in the Spring. Multiple income streams is the secret to a happy retirement I believe, and we have been saving for the last 40 years. Kind of feel like the tortoise that crossed the line and won the race. SLOWLY.

Once again thanks Garth for making sense of the financial world around us, so we can better inform family, friends, and neighbours!

Yeah, I know I can be a bore.

#184 Questions on 11.16.16 at 1:39 pm

#98 Self Directed on 11.15.16 at 2:01 am

I’d sit tight on $DOL. It’s still expensive in my opinion. P/E of 28 on a discount retailer seems wild to me.

As for Fortis, yeah not bad.

#185 Grey Dog on 11.16.16 at 1:49 pm

History lesson…home built 33 years ago, bought for 200k$, sold yesterday for record setting 2.3m$.

#186 IHCTD9 on 11.16.16 at 1:54 pm

#157 Prairieboy43 on 11.16.16 at 10:25 am

However governments will go broke (no sufficient funds to cover debt interest).
_______________________________

Not here in Canada – under folks like T2, insolvency will be thwarted by taxation. Since the lefty Socialist Trudeau and Co. do not know how to cut costs, the tax/fee combo will be served cold enough to undermine every benefit that higher rates have to offer.

Affordable RE won’t mean much if you’re working at Timmies. The boomers will have their returns on savings extracted by government . The boomers will not only stay in the workforce, their numbers returning to it will increase – and the youth of Canada will have to compete directly with them until automation relieves you all of your duties.

The millennial reality is that everything will stay the same if things go well… but things don’t go well in a deadbeat country with an ass grabbing goofball dunce donkey birdbrain running the show. Preet89 and all his buddies will die young of mildew poisoning.

If you doubt it look to the East Coast. Look what the Liberals did in NL: Doubled gas taxes (!), HST cranked up 15%, 300 fees for licenses, permits, fines and inspections are going up, 50 brand new fees are being introduced, a new 15-per-cent tax will be applied to insurance premiums, corporate taxes up, ciggies up, booze up, even more than this but I’ll stop. You get the idea – we will all go broke before the government does.

#187 pBrasseur on 11.16.16 at 2:08 pm

#118 Tony

I forgot to ask, my wife and I are considering buying a house in Montreal or Quebec City. Anyone here have any stats on the size of the housing bubble, if any, in these two cities? Notable for detached homes over 1m$… We get told by realtors there is no bubble here and house prices will not come down significantly, should we buy into that?

Same as everywhere in Canada, prices are too high relative to local wealth and economic prospect and IMO prices will come down. Of course the core of the cities will hold value better than the suburbs. Also since prices are lower than say Toronto or Vancouver you stand to lose less in absolute numbers.

If you have sufficient income and a dynamic economy is a secondary concern for you Quebec and Montreal are fantastic places to live in my opinion. Nowhere in North America will you find better food for the money. Both cities are lively and fun, Quebec city is as major tourist attraction and is surrounded by beautiful nature. Downside, infrastructures are crumbling, so is the health care system, taxes are high and government has its nose absolutely everywhere.

#188 Pre-retiree on 11.16.16 at 2:40 pm

@#5 Dave – But the tax break for new buyers in Ontario…the extra $2k will level things out.
_____________________

That was meant to be sarcastic, right?

#189 Roial1 on 11.16.16 at 3:35 pm

#183 pBrasseur on 11.16.16 at 2:08 pm

You know, I completely agree with you about Quebec city BUT! It can’t be done. Why? you ask. Our totally F–ked education system in 9 0f 10 provinces.

My wife speaks 6 languages. That’s right 6. (grew up in Switzerland)

I who grew up in a “bilingual” country speak one.

What is wrong with us? Do we as a nation have to be ignorant on purpose?

Seams so.

I was in holidaying in Croatia where they have one national language.
In kinder garden they teach Croat, English, and German or Italian.
When do our schools start French? Grade friken 9. How stupid is that?

So, it is impossible for me to live in that part of my own country because of this STUPIDITY!

Will we ever be one country?

NO!

#190 DON on 11.16.16 at 3:40 pm

#143 traderJim on 11.16.16 at 8:20 am
#133 Don

Thank you for the insight. Much appreciated!

This information may come in handy, down the road.

Cheers,

#191 NAFTA on 11.16.16 at 3:55 pm

Since you mentioned NAFTA
NAFTA. The proportionality clause, I did not know this clause existed! Did you?
I bet you know who does not either.

plea.org: – … the “proportionality clause”� states that Canada is obligated to make a certain proportion of the total supply of certain goods, for example, oil and gas, available for sale to the United States. The proportionality clause means that under NAFTA, Canada would have to provide oil and gas to the United States even if Canada is unable to meet its own energy requirements. … Canada agreed to the proportionality clause to ensure that there would be a constant market for our oil and gas. The agreement was signed at a time when there was no real perceived threat to the limited availability of such resources.

This provision dictates that Canada cannot institute policies that would encourage conservation of petroleum supplies for future generations of Canadians. It also affects the ability of Canada to reduce greenhouse gas emissions because a certain level of production must be maintained to meet our needs and the proportion that must be made available to the United States. Furthermore, the ability to divert oil products to the eastern provinces from the western oil patch is affected. At present, the eastern provinces rely on oil imported largely from OPEC companies.

Freshwater resources are also at risk under the proportionality clause of NAFTA. Water shortages are becoming more common in larger U.S. cities. If Canada exports water to the U.S. to help alleviate these shortages, the proportionality clause will be triggered and Canada will be obligated to continue to supply water regardless of our needs.

Makes me wonder! Thanks for posting

#192 Context on 11.16.16 at 4:00 pm

How many in Toronto are rolling the dice sitting in a condo anticipating higher prices? Come on now lets hear from the fence sitters living in denial with your story. Give us all a rational explanation based upon some facts why you have not sold yet or do you live in Plato’s Cave?

#193 isuckless on 11.16.16 at 4:03 pm

TRT #175
Islam in not a race, it’s a religion
Why we now love Muslims but still hate Scientologysts?

#194 David Prokop on 11.16.16 at 4:05 pm

Not too long ago markets were throwing up tantrums about 0.25% rate hike and now yields are spiking up everywhere and markets loooove it!
Why did we fear Donald so much? Golden times around the corner. Poloz said Canada would not follow US rate hike in December, 50 cent $CAD coming?

#195 traderJim on 11.16.16 at 4:06 pm

#164 Context

Thanks for reminding me about the Quebec Winter Carnival, I was there many years ago when I was a young lad. Don’t recall that much so it must have been fun.

But I will be leaving for South America this week, where the food is great and cheap, and the people are friendly and welcoming. Lots of live music and I get to brush up my Spanish. It’s a great change from the cool and reserved nature of my fellow canucks and ancestors.

I read that Quebec City has the lowest crime rate in NA, not sure if that’s true, but it does add extra appeal, since I do get weary of having to always lock my door while down south, and having to have someone take your taxi driver’s ID down before they take your drunken ass home is a bit of a nuisance as well.

#196 Greg on 11.16.16 at 4:45 pm

DELETED

#197 jess on 11.16.16 at 6:00 pm

#178 Victor V on 11.16.16 at 1:28 pm

U.S. Foreign Investor Program Funding More Luxury Projects rather than the development in the rural and downtrodden districts that some say were the original targets of the program
Congress reset the expiration date on parts of the so-called EB-5 program to Dec. 9.
By LIZ MOYER NOV. 15, 2016 (new york times)
Chinese developers in the US are increasingly incorporating EB-5 capital into their projects:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/business/dealbook/us-foreign-investor-program-funding-more-luxury-projects.html?ref=business

see Chinese-based developers and the project names

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/assets/documents/EB-5%20Capital%20Project%20Database%20-%20Revised%20and%20Expanded.pdf

#198 BG on 11.16.16 at 9:25 pm

Just received 30k USD back from an investment.
Trying to decide if I should use them to buy CAD.

Adding USD to my diversified portfolio just seems like a lot of overhead.
Especially the registered accounts.

#199 BG on 11.16.16 at 10:12 pm

#146 IHCTD9 on 11.16.16 at 8:38 am

Montreal is a dying city and experiencing population loss. You can Google the details.

RE prices will go down there no doubt about it.
***********************************************

Dying? Maybe you meant like you and I are dying because we’re getting closer to a distant death one day at a time.

I’ve visited Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary.
I liked these cities, but “dying” Montreal is more lively and fun place to be than any of these.

Montreal has been declining against Toronto for 30 years… And it is still a more enjoyable place by many standards.

The Real Estate did not go through the same kind of bubble as Vancouver and Toronto.
If Montreal’s Real Estate was to go down in any significantly concerning way, I bet bubbly Toronto would be going through something much worse.

#200 Stuey on 11.17.16 at 1:45 pm

Why don’t you like Kevin O’Leary?