Not boring

ankle-death-modified

Tuesday marks seven days after the earth moved.

Here is what’s changed since 3 am on the 9th.

  • The probability US interest rates (then ours) will be rising, starting on December 14 is now 92%. The odds were about 80% last week, and in the seventies the week before. Stick a fork in uncertainty. It’s done. And you know what this means for Canadian real estate values, right?
  • Estimates are the Fed will hike again twice in 2017. Maybe three times. In a year, Pacific Investment Management estimates, the prime will be 1% higher. Mortgages, too.
  • The bond market’s having a cow. Over $1.2 trillion has been erased in a week. Almost all of it migrated into stocks.
  • Yields are coursing higher. The return on US Treasuries has bumped almost 50 basis points in a week. That’s massive. (Prices topple as rates plump.)
  • Emerging markets are cratering on the expectation Trumpian times will be protectionist ones. Borders, walls, tariffs, less free trade. More testo, less compromise. America first, baby.
  • The US dollar is surging, so ours is cringing. Solidly below 74 cents now. Gold’s also being whacked on the expectation of more inflation and higher rates.
  • But other commodities, like copper, are galloping higher on the Trump pledge to spend $500 billion building stuff.
  • Money is gushing into equities. The most in four months. Markets are spiking to new record highs.

So here’s the question: can it last? Is this a kneejerk reaction to an unexpected event? What does it mean for a balanced portfolio. For your money? Your house?

Yes, it’s an extreme reaction and what’s happened in the past week will probably be tempered, moderated or reversed a little. Markets, investors and most of the planet’s inhabitants expected another outcome on the 8th, so when the weird guy won there was a supersized reaction in one direction (down), then an equally big reversal. And while little doubt exists that Trump will be the Inflation President, running up the deficit, spending outlandishly, cutting taxes and pursuing protectionism, economic growth ain’t about to surge in a month. Or six. Or even a year.

So, stocks are probably outrunning their game. Be careful about increasing exposure at the moment. Bonds, however, will have an immediate impact on daily life. As yields pop higher you can expect mortgage rates in Canada have seen their lows for a long time. Like the rest of your life. Combined with the Oct. 3 mortgage changes and the coming CMHC risk-sharing with lenders, there’ll be a damaging impact on housing.

The Bank of Canada need not react until well into 2017, and still the cost of both variable and fixed-rate homes loans will rise. If you need to borrow now, go long. Meanwhile, if you’ve been thinking about selling your house in the spring to finance retirement or get out from under debt, well, do it now. Could be a cruel April.

As for portfolios, do not surrender your balanced positions. Stay underweight in Canadian growth assets, and overweight in the US and international. Oil is still being creamed by oversupply. Emerging markets are being trounced as the greenback inflates and trade fears mount, so if you don’t have any in your portfolio, consider this a buying opportunity. (Seriously, everybody needs to own some China.)

Preferreds love rising rates, and will likely deliver higher capital values along with a juicy, tax-deferred yield. REITs, not so much. More rate-sensitive, they might under perform, but are certainly worth hanging on to for distributions and diversification. Ditto for government bonds, which will fall in price but continue to temper volatility. The portfolio I’ve oft recommended here has only a small sovereign bond weighting (and keep durations short). But the corporate bonds, high-yield and real return – which rise with inflation – are cool. Stay the course.

Summary: I hope you took my advice in July and crystallized your Vancouver real estate profits. Seriously. The rest of you, stay balanced. The last thing you should expect now is boring.

$    $    $

Make up your mind, already…

The real estate market might function in a quasi-predictable fashion – shaped by, you know, supply and demand – if it were not for government thrusting its sticky proboscis into every orifice. Just weeks after the feds moved to massively curtail demand by first-time buyers who can’t actually afford the houses they’ve been buying, Ontario brings in yet another subsidy to encourage the moisters’ horniness.

This one comes via a doubling in the exemption to provincial land transfer tax. It means the kids can score a $386,000 property and pay nada to register it. The flip side is an extra tax is now being slapped on people buying properties worth more than $2 million. By the way, in Toronto (where most two-bagger houses are) the LTT is currently $72,200. In Cape Breton, that buys you this.

197 comments ↓

#1 It`s OVER realtors on 11.14.16 at 5:27 pm

The GTA is going DOWN DOWN DOWN and no talking will change that. An extra $2K tax break will not stop anything. Sales are dropping and prices are falling. Many of you realtors will NEVER work in the RE industry again. :)

#2 Kit Schicker on 11.14.16 at 5:30 pm

Last!

#3 homeboy on 11.14.16 at 5:38 pm

homeboy just bought some TSX:ZEB . trying to teach the hommies in the hood about ETF’s. goons on the corner don’t understand dividends like I do

#4 Trrrrrump on 11.14.16 at 5:38 pm

I’ll state what everyone actuall thinks….GOOOOO TRUMP!

#5 E-mail Wild bill and get CMHC SHUT DOWN on 11.14.16 at 5:38 pm

No point in coming here and complaining. Time to take action. Get on your computer and type out an email and email all those MP wild bill, T2 and whoever else you want. It`s time for something CONservatives hate more then anything else…FREE and OPEN markets. Realtors , mortgage brokers , bankers and CONservatives HATE and I mean HATE the free and open markets. Take action and complain and let your voice be heard. Pointing here an fun but pointless. Send an email

#6 MSM-Free Zone on 11.14.16 at 5:42 pm

“….And while little doubt exists that Trump will be the Inflation President, running up the deficit, spending outlandishly, cutting taxes and pursuing protectionism….”
_________________________

Not entirely surprising, just a carbon copy of his personal life.

#7 mark on 11.14.16 at 5:42 pm

$72k! you elitist, Garth. That’s one of the expensive houses there.

Admittedly, the $15k houses look like the crackheads and raccoons just moved out.

#8 Bram on 11.14.16 at 5:50 pm

And you know what this means for Canadian real estate values, right?

Higher USD makes CAD housing look cheap for Trump-refugees, causing domestic real estate values to go up? :-)

Don’t be surprised if Bank of Canada will go in opposite direction either!

Bram

#9 RentYVR on 11.14.16 at 5:56 pm

Rates in Canada are not going anywhere. The current Gov’t and central bank leaders would like nothing more than to to turn our currency into the peso in the misguided belief that this will drive exports. So no, rates in Canada aren’t going up anytime soon.

#10 pathcontrolmonk on 11.14.16 at 5:56 pm

Meanwhile Justin just invited 6,000,000 Mexicans to come take refuge in Canada.

#11 Johnny D on 11.14.16 at 5:57 pm

“corporate bonds, high-yield and real return”…

ishares XTR has taken a beating lately and is chock full of these, and other stuff as well. Good time to buy?

#12 RiseandShine on 11.14.16 at 5:59 pm

Great post. As you point out we are observing volatility that is not based on objective analysis. However….the volatility in the bond market warrants greater concern no? Set aside Canada….mortgage costs in the US have risen by 40% in the past week. Do you not see the potential for this creating further economic disruption as hedge funds, and general consumers bail on their investments. Also….since the US Treasuries are getting whacked, do you not see an issue with other nations, such as China, deciding that they no longer wanted to be a long term debt holder of a Trump led USA? The appreciation in the US dollar is not a surge in confidence of growth….it is a liquidity issue as these trades settle in US dollars.

#13 Liam O'Brien on 11.14.16 at 6:01 pm

Every promise Trump made on the trail is being tempered or completely back tracked on. I suspect his plans to spend spend spend will ease back as well. He is a conservative….lol.. right?

#14 Eaglebay on 11.14.16 at 6:03 pm

From yesterday’s post.

Oh boy Garth.
How can you put up with all these ignorant bloggers?
The level of understanding what is happening is unbelievable. The majority of the comments are out of this world. Mind you, I only perused about half the comments. Where do these people come from?
If I were you I would definitely eliminate the comment section.
Whatever happened to common sense.
Yes please, tax me, take my property, ignore the investments made by some foreigners, lets be fair unless you’re a foreigner, regulate life, protect the people that don’t want to help themselves, why work hard and accumulate wealth. Nobody seems to take responsibility for themselves.
Sheesh…this could go on and on.
I hope that the majority of your readers, that do not comment, are wise and taking advantage of your posts to learn and not read the comments.
Most of the bloggers are full of themselves.
End of rant and thank you Garth.

#15 MSM-Free Zone on 11.14.16 at 6:06 pm

It’s now completely obvious why Ontario premier K.W. refused to follow B.C.’s lead in taxing foreign real estate buyers. She’s not about to choke any of the geese laying all her golden eggs….

“…….The government revealed Monday how the rising cost of housing is significantly boosting its tax revenue. Its land transfer tax revenue is up 15 per cent from its forecast in the budget delivered in February. The province is now expecting to take in $2.36 billion in land-transfer tax this fiscal year, $314 million more than predicted. The economic update documents say this is “due to the continued strength of Ontario’s housing market in 2016….”

Housing Unaffordability = Economic Strength. Who knew?

#16 mike from mtl on 11.14.16 at 6:10 pm

Well if the FED actually does raise from almost zero to next to zero the BoC won’t need lowering to meet their poloz peso target.

#17 Alice on 11.14.16 at 6:13 pm

Vancouver real estate is finally crashing. Idiots that purchased houses a few months ago are selling at a loss. These people didn’t even factor in the transfer taxes in BC.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/timberrr-vancouver-real-estate-selling-for-less-than-purchase-price/

#18 JSS on 11.14.16 at 6:15 pm

Is that the Amityville house?

#19 SoggyShorts on 11.14.16 at 6:16 pm

Lump investing vs dollar cost averaging
We’ve had a pretty good year, and I’m in a position to increase my portfolio of 300k by about 100k.
Is there any reason not to lump it in? Is dollar cost averaging smarter, or just another way to try and time the market(and fail)?
Thanks

#20 Context on 11.14.16 at 6:21 pm

Nice looking house for the price but one thing was missing in the agent’s description. It has a working fireplace and one decorative so how is this home heated? I see modern radiators in place but what fires the boiler, as it could be electric.

#21 FRANK BURNS on 11.14.16 at 6:23 pm

former FED CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN agrees rates to rise to 3 to 5% range due to inflationary pressure in the near future.Why isnt Obama saying something to stop the violence of the protesters in US?

#22 OttawaMike on 11.14.16 at 6:28 pm

Buy the Glace Bay shack and go on social assistance.
All around win.

#23 Here comes the crash on 11.14.16 at 6:40 pm

Sorry realtors it really is game over. Going to fun to watch you come here and chirp like losers. Interest rates are going up and up and even if BoC does nothing prices will go down . Get the popcorn out its going to be a fun housing crash to watch.

#24 For those about to flop... on 11.14.16 at 6:43 pm

Regarding Eaglebay at #14.

You are the missing piece to yesterday’s Ministry puzzle.

Minister of Grumpyness -Eaglebay

Mind you ,you’ll have some competition for this position…

M42BC

#25 conan on 11.14.16 at 6:45 pm

If what you just wrote comes true then:
Real return bonds are uncool. Good for peeps who will hold tiil maturity(25 years) not good for Mr and Mrs Mainstreet who think in one year time frames. If you want to get smoked buy a bong instead of a real return bond.

#26 espressobob on 11.14.16 at 6:49 pm

When it comes to investing, it’s all about asset allocation?

Someone new to the game might want to weight their holdings in a developed word index and fixed income in quality laddered short term bond ETF.

Others, potentially in a global all cap index fund with bonds and prefs.

The real problem has to do with the size of ones portfolio. Don’t forget income generated and the amount of disposable cash that’s investable. This can get quite complicated, not to mention taxation. Time horizon and risk tolerance play into this equation. And what about the goal of this exercise?

It seems most would fair better having their nestegg managed by a pro.

DIY investing is not easy! Thank god for bourbon.

#27 Rock Beats Paper on 11.14.16 at 6:50 pm

Garth,

What does this point actually mean;

“•The bond market’s having a cow. Over $1.2 trillion has been erased in a week. Almost all of it migrated into stocks.”

Did the Fed by the bonds and then retire them?

Gold getting whacked by rising rates and inflation. That’s funny, I though gold went down for 4 years based on falling rates and deflation from 2011-2015?

#28 Alice on 11.14.16 at 6:51 pm

@MSM-Free Zone half of all growth in Ontario’s GDP is related to real estate. She’s definitely not going to kill her performance with less than two years to the poll.

#29 Victor V on 11.14.16 at 6:55 pm

Nearly one-in-four Canadians worried about how to pay for groceries: Study

http://www.bnn.ca/nearly-one-in-four-canadians-worried-about-how-to-pay-for-groceries-study-1.607353

#30 Metaxa on 11.14.16 at 7:09 pm

Meanwhile Justin just invited 6,000,000 Mexicans to come take refuge in Canada.

Source?

I mean really…who is giving you your marching orders to post that kind of outrageous crap?

Or is it make it up in your head, post it on the Internets and it becomes real? To you?

#31 Harbour on 11.14.16 at 7:17 pm

#9 RentYVR on 11.14.16 at 5:56 pm
Rates in Canada are not going anywhere. The current Gov’t and central bank leaders would like nothing more than to to turn our currency into the peso in the misguided belief that this will drive exports. So no, rates in Canada aren’t going up anytime soon.
………………………………………………………………………

The free money ride is over, just like the housing pyramid

#32 Pete on 11.14.16 at 7:23 pm

Get out of silver now. Buy back in at $9-$10 in about 6-8 months.

#33 For those about to flop... on 11.14.16 at 7:30 pm

This is what happens when you have too much starch in your diet..

M42BC

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/561914/ukraine-parliament-russia-kremlin-putin-ministers-fight

#34 Smoking Man on 11.14.16 at 7:39 pm

Perhaps writing fiction is not my thing, 24 books sold so far, not complaining. Now a book on Forex might have potential on this blog.

My fifty cent strategy. Primitive but effective.

I would have to put in a huge disclaimer. Warning the author of this book is a known alcoholic bull shitter who takes great pride in the tales he tells. At times he thinks he flies around in a spaceship. He shares his fiction novel with his professional contacts on linked in, ensuring he will never get a job again. So don’t listen to him. He’s a nut.

The bellow is a make belief Long USDCAD P&L of my trades. I’m so good at lying that in the archives as I was building the book the numbers match perfectly. That takes talent or a photographic memory.

USDCAD CADUSD COST
1.35333 0.73893 440,631

Contracts 1650 5,966,740
1.3172 100,000.00 217,331,885
1.3533 100,000.00 223,298,625

Ave Buy In 1.3172 429000 5,767,775
TYPE QTY Price At Risk $.$$ P&L
Contracts 50 1.2774 13000 379,775
Contracts 100 1.2824 26000 709,250
Contracts 100 1.2874 26000 659,250
Contracts 100 1.2924 26000 609,250
Contracts 100 1.2974 26000 559,250
Contracts 100 1.3024 26000 509,250
Contracts 100 1.3074 26000 459,250
Contracts 100 1.3120 26000 413,250
Contracts 100 1.3170 26000 363,250
Contracts 100 1.3220 26000 313,250
Contracts 100 1.3270 26000 263,250
Contracts 100 1.3320 26000 213,250
Contracts 100 1.3370 26000 163,250
Contracts 100 1.3420 26000 113,250
Contracts 100 1.3470 26000 63,250
Contracts 100 1.3520 26000 13,250
Contracts 100 1.3570 26000 -36,750

#35 Jungle on 11.14.16 at 7:46 pm

He’s right. Beware of surging stock market values with little or no growth. Could be valued quite rich.

On another note, bonds getting creamed. Glad I have low allocation.

#36 Brian Ripley on 11.14.16 at 7:47 pm

The last thing you should expect now is boring.

Garth

Bye bye secular humanist civil government; hello to religious and political ideologues.

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/trumped

It sounds to me like the Caliphate has reached North America under a different Bannon… err… I mean banner.

Sorry, I had to get this off my chest. Constantly thinking about real estate over valuation seems so tedious now.

#37 Bat Flipper on 11.14.16 at 7:50 pm

would you believe that 27% of kids in Toronto live below the poverty line of $35,600 income!

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/11/14/kids-suffer-most-as-toronto-clings-to-title-of-child-poverty-capital.html

#38 The American on 11.14.16 at 7:51 pm

At #4: Beg to differ. Not everyone thinks Trump is a good thing. In fact, the majority of Americans voted. They voted for Hillary. So far her lead is nearly 2,000,000 votes more than Trump, and STILL COUNTING. Americans spoke, and the popular vote was pro Hillary, whether you like it or not. There’s always December 19th… And now, THIS! http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/11/john-oliver-donald-trump-president-last-week-tonight

#39 macroman on 11.14.16 at 7:51 pm

Minister of Defense

A Damn Bighill

#40 Rook on 11.14.16 at 8:05 pm

Bram, I would have to agree. If housing prices decrease in desirable city’s, along with the falling loonie,foreign buyers will be filling those gaps and more. I hope I’m wrong.

#41 espressobob on 11.14.16 at 8:17 pm

Dollar cost averaging?

Is this ETF a buy?

What happened to the bond market?

Should I buy gold?

Individual stocks?

Sector plays?

Inverse ETFs?

Morningstars ratings on mutual funds? Past performance.

Mutual funds?

Hedge funds?

Segregated funds?

Is this investment taxable?

Should I sell?

So you wanna be a DIY investor?

#42 Wrk.dover on 11.14.16 at 8:17 pm

Looks knobby and tubey, as well as impossible to heat.

No way that house would be worth more anywhere else is there?

I am noticing building materials are up 20% in a year, half of that is exchange and half of it is ? More increase to follow with the dollar shrinking.

#43 Smoking Man on 11.14.16 at 8:24 pm

Love the pic tonight, so which dog is james?

#44 InvestorsFriend on 11.14.16 at 8:28 pm

I Beg to Differ

“The bond market’s having a cow. Over $1.2 trillion has been erased in a week. Almost all of it migrated into stocks.”

******************************************
The first sentence certainly sounds true. But…

Precisely NONE of it migrated into stocks. Someone still owns each bond and with the values down that is indeed money erased. Vanished into thin air.

Some investors indeed sold bonds and invested in stocks. Investors bid down the price of bonds and bid up the price of stocks. In that process no net money flows out of bonds into stocks.

Every single dollar extracted by someone selling a bond was replaced by the same amount of dollars buying bonds. Bonds were not sold in the aggregate as the buying was precisely equal to the selling as it always must be in the trading markets.

Investors in aggregate are completely powerless to extract a dime from the bond market or the stock market. (Not so for individual investors , of course).

Investors in aggregate can refuse to buy new bond issues or slow their purchases but once a bond is issued and trading the issuer has that money until the bond matures. That money simply CANNOT be transferred to the stock market (and therefore was not). The issuer has the money.

It does not matter how many times the business channels report money flowing from bonds to stocks. It remains impossible. All that is happening is the prices of bonds went down as they became less desired.

Obviously the bond issuers are NOT short $1.2 trillion as a result of the issued bonds trading at a lower price.

Nor did I say that. BTW, remember what you were banned for last time? — Garth

#45 Sam the Sham on 11.14.16 at 8:29 pm

Here in the long neglected Niagara peninsular after years of stagnant house prices we are finally seeing a serge. House prices are up 27% since the start of the new year. We even have bidding wars just like the big boys. A lot of boomers are selling Toronto and moving here. This is probably your last chance to buy “cheap” real estate in southern Ontario. Inflation (maybe hyper) is coming. You have been warned!!

#46 bubu on 11.14.16 at 8:32 pm

you are talking about 1% like it would crash the market… nothing happens if the interest goes up by 1%, as nothing happened when the mortgage rules changed from 40 years to 25 years or when oil went down in AB…

#47 InvestorsFriend on 11.14.16 at 8:37 pm

Home Heating In Cape Breton

Context on 11.14.16 at 6:21 pm commented and asked:

Nice looking house for the price but one thing was missing in the agent’s description. It has a working fireplace and one decorative so how is this home heated? I see modern radiators in place but what fires the boiler, as it could be electric.

****************************************
Older Cape Breton houses (especially Glace Bay) would have had coal fired boilers years ago. Most would have been replaced with fuel oil furnaces. The house is probably quite expensive to heat. Natural gas is not distributed in Cape Breton.

#48 Shawn on 11.14.16 at 8:43 pm

Why are preferred shares selling off in the US?

#49 Smoking Man on 11.14.16 at 8:43 pm

Bat shit crazy lefty runs over her husband when she finds out he voted trump.

They preach love but practice hate.

https://therealstrategy.com/crazy-woman-runs-over-her-husband-with-an-suv-after-learning-he-voted-for-trump/

#50 Fiendish Thingy on 11.14.16 at 8:49 pm

US mortgage rates up .5% in one week since Trump:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/14/trump-effect-pushes-mortgage-rates-to-4.html

#51 Smoking Man on 11.14.16 at 8:54 pm

#38 The American on 11.14.16 at 7:51 pm
At #4: Beg to differ. Not everyone thinks Trump is a good thing. In fact, the majority of Americans voted. They voted for Hillary. So far her lead is nearly 2,000,000 votes more than Trump, and STILL COUNTING. Americans spoke, and the popular vote was pro Hillary, whether you like it or not. There’s always December 19th… And now, THIS! http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/11/john-oliver-donald-trump-president-last-week-tonight
……

No accolades for my call. You were wrong and as always the Smoking Man was right yet again.

Now if you factor in Soros voting machines, stuffed Hillary ballots and 3 million illegals voting this was a massive landslide.

Now if for some strange reason the electoral collage is pressure to scammed trump out of the win. Snotty little protests.

Did you see his rallies vs Hillarys? If you think the little snowflakes destroying property at these little protests are bad ass.

They steal it from Donald. The USA will turn into Syria overnight, and the cops, military, and Aliens Got trumps back.

Be careful of what You wish for.

#52 Bram on 11.14.16 at 9:01 pm

#211 For those about to flop… on 11.14.16 at 3:21 pm
Haven’t been up that way for a while but I think they had a lot of brick on them too

That’s an apt description: “on them.”
I find that if you see brick in YVR, it is often a decorative plaster.

If it was load-bearing brick walls, my bet is that the city inspectors wouldn’t know what to do with it.

Real brick walls seem to be reserved for fire stations, police stations, churches, that kind of thing. But residences? So rare.
Too bad really, because you would think that in a wet climate, you would want to stay away from chip wood.

Bram

#53 Smoking Man on 11.14.16 at 9:02 pm

Over Lake Ontario today, a porter q400 had to take evasive maneuvers to avoid an object. They say it was a drone. After the pilot reported he thought it was around the balloon.

Ha, I have it on good intel it wasn’t a drone or a plane.

Did I tell you guys, Ashman flew to Toronto today?

#54 Smoking Man on 11.14.16 at 9:09 pm

Forgot to post this link with my last post.

http://www.680news.com/2016/11/14/investigation-underway-after-suspected-drone-almost-crashed-into-porter-plane/

Note the word: after debriefing went from an orange balloon to a drone.

Ha, a drone over lake Ontario at 9000 feet filming what smealts.

Humans are dumb

#55 Venom on 11.14.16 at 9:12 pm

So many CDN are inter listed and are rocking, like TD and GIB.a, so why burden yourself with added taxation, with holding and accounting fees, buy maple that will appreciate with the coming tide, instead of buying US dollars at the worst time in history.

CDN Reit’s are dead meat on a stick.

#56 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.14.16 at 9:17 pm

Gold’s also being whacked on the expectation of more inflation and higher rates.

Anyone who bought the yellow turd got killed. Cuz, yknow, gold sux. And having gold around an election like Trump-Clinton is suicide

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-15/hedge-fund-gold-buyers-caught-out-by-trump-vote-as-prices-plunge

#57 MF on 11.14.16 at 9:17 pm

#13 Liam O’Brien on 11.14.16 at 6:01 pm

Trump is not even in office yet. How could he be backtracking?

Anyone notice how we are already seeing the media trying to attack him only after being the president-elect for a week? These are the same media outlets that said Hillary had a “huge 15 point lead”. What a joke.

#167 Fed-up on 11.14.16 at 10:43 am

“Born, raised, educated and live in the GTA.

More hot air and baseless BS in your post.

Again, show me where we have attracted the best and brightest this world has to offer the past 35 years and how we can sustain hundreds of thousands new arrivals each and every year here.

If not, clam up.”

-It’s not baseless BS and hot air to say that immigrants have, on average, been able to integrate well and lead successful lives (particularly their children) in the GTA because it’s tolerant, clean, and has jobs available.

How could you have grown up, lived in the GTA, and not have experienced this?

That was my point.

You are right about congestion, but all major cities have the same problem. You are also right about the housing situation. It’s an unmitigated disaster and something needs to be done.

MF

#58 soost on 11.14.16 at 9:21 pm

Garth some publications and another notably bearish Real Estate blog have mentioned that:

Trump Presidency = Inflationary Policies = Increase in Inflation Linked Assets = Increase in RE Prices

You seem to acknowledge that this Inflation will lead to > interest rates and therefore will cool the housing market.

So who wins?
A. The rising tide of inflation that brings housing along for the ride.
B. The chilling effect of Interest Rates as a Response to that growth/inflation.

My worry would be that real growth based inflation rather than stagflation will take place in USA and housing prices will rise.

What is everyone’s opinion?

#59 Eaglebay on 11.14.16 at 9:27 pm

#24 For those about to flop… on 11.14.16 at 6:43 pm

Minister of common sense. Don’t be silly.

#60 MF on 11.14.16 at 9:28 pm

#38 The American on 11.14.16 at 7:51 pm

Come on now American. For 230 ish years the electoral college has determined the winner. Just because some millennials are upset and having a temper tantrum does not mean they should get their way. Trump campaigned heavily and it paid off. He ran a masterful campaign and won.

If it came down to popular votes, then NY and CA would continue to vote in weak Democrats to office over and over, pissing off the rest of the country in the process. When these Democrats then realize NY and CA are stupid enough to always vote the same way, they would do like they always do and get complacent, arrogant and out of touch with reality in the rest of the country. The rest of the country just sent the ruling urban, elite a message: listen to us or you are done. I think you should listen.

MF

#61 bigtowne on 11.14.16 at 9:33 pm

We are so blessed to have America as our greatest trade partner not to mention the Trump posse to take the Presidency in the new year. My word we are truly blessed.

Were it not for our ever dwindling currency we could join in the jubilation with our best friends south of the 49th. If our dollar cracks the 70…dear friend the darkness will be bleak. It will be a Charles Dickens economy. That beautiful bottle of Jack Daniels now at $32 will hurt not just the minimum wage stiff but hit the 1% too. The church ladies in Dicken’s 19th century novels concocted home-made cordials for the afflicted and those needing restoratives. We all should go to the local Baptist congregation and for sure the ladies bible study will have that recipe. God Bless all you fellow Canadian comrades.

#62 IHCTD9 on 11.14.16 at 9:37 pm

#28 Alice on 11.14.16 at 6:51 pm
@MSM-Free Zone half of all growth in Ontario’s GDP is related to real estate. She’s definitely not going to kill her performance with less than two years to the poll.
———

Wynnie is not doing so well even with housing as it is right now. The next couple years will be spent trying to undo what she did the first two. In the end, we’ll be right back where we were when she started less the increased debt (if we’re lucky).

#63 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.14.16 at 9:37 pm

As people know, Republicans will control or eventually control the Presidency, Congress and Supreme Court. Don’t forget the SEC. Trump will take that too

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-sec-mary-jo-white-20161114-story.html

#64 WUL on 11.14.16 at 9:38 pm

I usually attend the Uni of Google before I come here with my questions but I am falling short on my searches tonight. Which Ont. gov’t introduced the Land Transfer Tax Act? Rachel would never introduce such pernicious legislation. Same is true for a provincial sales tax.

#65 Smoking Man on 11.14.16 at 9:39 pm

#57 soost on 11.14.16 at 9:21 pm
Garth some publications and another notably bearish Real Estate blog have mentioned that:

Trump Presidency = Inflationary Policies = Increase in Inflation Linked Assets = Increase in RE Prices

You seem to acknowledge that this Inflation will lead to > interest rates and therefore will cool the housing market.

So who wins?
A. The rising tide of inflation that brings housing along for the ride.
B. The chilling effect of Interest Rates as a Response to that growth/inflation.

My worry would be that real growth based inflation rather than stagflation will take place in USA and housing prices will rise.

What is everyone’s opinion?
….

Thanks for the invite.

Canada is doomed, we have dumb stupid fairytale sunny ways teachers at the controls who lives in a fiction novel, I’m just a writer of one, that no one wants.

Payroll tax going up, Carbon tax, tax, tax, tax.

The USA going back to coal = cheap power. where you going to open your plant, or put your servers. Canada, Bahahaha
How about an office where your staff gets to be off for 18 months on mat leave.

I’m so happy all my stuff was off shored 2 years ago, what’s left, a shit bungalow, in a shit area, mortgaged to the nines, the story has it all that loot went to Seneca, I have an old pick up truck with 300k on it. It can barely run, if I time my escape to south America good, that’s the day the engine dies.

When shit hits the fan, I drop the keys to the house off to my former employer. and leave the truck in the driveway as a gift.

Ok, that’s a fiction story, but Mabey it’s not.

#66 Close but no cigar on 11.14.16 at 9:47 pm

#7 mark on 11.14.16 at 5:42 pm

$72k! you elitist, Garth. That’s one of the expensive houses there.

Admittedly, the $15k houses look like the crackheads and raccoons just moved out.

++

The average in most, if not all the counties outside of Halifax is $125, 000. The house pictured requires a fair amount of work. Your estimate of 75 grand being the top of the market isn’t even close, you just need to go near the water, which we’ve got a lot of :)

#67 RiseandShine on 11.14.16 at 9:47 pm

I wonder if half of the posters here even understand what they are cheering for ? Any rise in interest rates will not be due to accelerated growth by Trump admin. Hate to break it to you but you do not go from 1.8% to 3+ % growth on protectionist policies while driving higher debt levels on a Fed gov that is already at a debt/GDP level of 100%.

There is a greater probability of stagflation which isn’t good for anyone. We are already seeing signs of inflation in certain commodities and a correction in real estate market will destroy any discretionary spending .

#68 stage1dave on 11.14.16 at 9:49 pm

Unfortunately, our overly-connected and electronically enhanced world has finally sunk to a new low…

ISIS leader tweets: “…that Trump is a complete maniac!”

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/top-isis-commander-calls-donald-9257046

WTF? I’m beginning to think Ripley was right…

#69 Self Directed on 11.14.16 at 9:54 pm

#17 Alice on 11.14.16 at 6:13 pm

Vancouver real estate is finally crashing. Idiots that purchased houses a few months ago are selling at a loss. These people didn’t even factor in the transfer taxes in BC.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/timberrr-vancouver-real-estate-selling-for-less-than-purchase-price/
—————————————–
I guess on cap gains tax since their is no gain to tax. There’s a silver lining at least. If and when they do finally get an offer, they are going to say “What the heck are all these conditions?!” They’re called SUBJECTS. ENJOY!

#70 Heating the old home on 11.14.16 at 9:57 pm

#47 InvestorsFriend on 11.14.16 at 8:37 pm

Home Heating In Cape Breton

Context on 11.14.16 at 6:21 pm commented and asked:

Nice looking house for the price but one thing was missing in the agent’s description. It has a working fireplace and one decorative so how is this home heated? I see modern radiators in place but what fires the boiler, as it could be electric.

****************************************
Older Cape Breton houses (especially Glace Bay) would have had coal fired boilers years ago. Most would have been replaced with fuel oil furnaces. The house is probably quite expensive to heat. Natural gas is not distributed in Cape Breton.

++

Heat pumps are taking over the heating requirements of the east coast homes now. The outlay for that home would be about $10,000, but the annual cost is half of heating oil, plus it serves as a air conditioning unit in the summer.
I also saw some stats regarding wood heat and it has increased dramatically in the north eastern US and the maritimes over the last 15 years. Based on btu outputs of oil and wood, I can heat our home for no more than 30% of the cost of oil.

#71 Situation Vancity on 11.14.16 at 9:58 pm

Canada will not follow USA incasing rates. Everyone knows that, so lets drop that theme.

In other news, Canada lifts visa restrictions on all Mexicans showing up at our border on DEC 1st. If 3 million show up at our borders, they be allowed to enter.

This will give a massive boost to the economy. Only downside is rents will skyrocket but that is the price we pay in a globalized world. The upside is tremendous.

Bring on the Mexicans! Make a new special immigration program so we can give them PR as soon as possible. Even if we can’t, no person from other countries over staying their visa has been ever kick out of Canada.

Real Mexican Food coming to Vancouver soon!

#72 Lana on 11.14.16 at 10:00 pm

I second the request, end the blog comments. Or respond to 3 or 4 comments pertaining to your blog post with more depth. Blog comments are toxic, I read the first 3, and then bye bye.

#73 common sense on 11.14.16 at 10:00 pm

#29 Victor V.

Sadly, long pasta, Kraft PB shares…

#74 Situation Vancity on 11.14.16 at 10:04 pm

#37 Bat Flipper on 11.14.16 at 7:50 pm
would you believe that 27% of kids in Toronto live below the poverty line of $35,600 income!

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/11/14/kids-suffer-most-as-toronto-clings-to-title-of-child-poverty-capital.html
———————————–

Richmond BC has that percentage beat. We should be directing funds there to help the children in need.

#75 Questions on 11.14.16 at 10:08 pm

#3 homeboy – look inside that etf, yo

You’re paying a management fee (small but still), where you could just buy equal amounts of the big 6 Canada banks straight up.

#76 IHCTD9 on 11.14.16 at 10:12 pm

#38 The American on 11.14.16 at 7:51 pm
At #4: Beg to differ. Not everyone thinks Trump is a good thing. In fact, the majority of Americans voted. They voted for Hillary. So far her lead is nearly 2,000,000 votes more than Trump, and STILL COUNTING. Americans spoke, and the popular vote was pro Hillary, whether you like it or not. There’s always December 19th… And now, THIS! http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/11/john-oliver-donald-trump-president-last-week-tonight
——-

Good grief, after weeks and weeks of listening to you blithering on about how the EC works, and giving us all a never ending education on how Trump can’t win, now are we going to have to endure weeks more of butt-hurt, sourpuss, blubbering, RE-education that it’s not the EC, but the popular vote that matters most?

LOL!

The minute I realized Trump was going to win, I understood just how much fun the next few months were going to be. Mountains of unbunchable panties piled in the streets, crow carcasses everywhere, demoralized democrats grovelling for understanding with their mouths full of dirt, hoards of prepubescent females committing acts of self immolation and calling Trump a racist, misogynist, nazi, killer, rapist, criminal, fascist, liar, bully, corrupt, offensive, absurd, vulgar, boorish, nutjob, loser, lslamophobe, homophobe, narcissist, sexist, blah, blah, blah…

Hopefully, you and your ass-blustered ilk keep it up – then I can watch it all happen again in 4 years :).

#77 Flopper Fan (still) on 11.14.16 at 10:21 pm

#11 Johnny D on 11.14.16 at 5:57 pm

http://www.berkes.ca/archive/XTR_analysis.pdf

#78 Bob dog on 11.14.16 at 10:28 pm

Let’s not forget the Hollywood wealthy don’t need to bother with immigration to live in Canada. Just buy a house in Vancouver and live in it. If you are not employed in Canada there is nothing to stop you from spending time and money here living in the home a Canadian taxpayer should own.

Hell you will eliminate the trip you used to take here since half the Hollywood movies are made here.

This country is truly a lost cause. Get out while nafta Visas still exist. Software engineers languishing in Vancouver can increase their standard of living 300% by simply moving across the border.

#79 IHCTD9 on 11.14.16 at 10:31 pm

#63 WUL on 11.14.16 at 9:38 pm
I usually attend the Uni of Google before I come here with my questions but I am falling short on my searches tonight. Which Ont. gov’t introduced the Land Transfer Tax Act? Rachel would never introduce such pernicious legislation. Same is true for a provincial sales tax.
——

Looks like 1990 which was an election year, Peterson lost to Rae. If Land Transfer Tax Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. L.6 is the original, could have been introduced under either the Libs or the dippers watch. Could not google anything more definitive than that.

#80 Wicked a stick seems on 11.14.16 at 10:39 pm

So what is Modi doing in India?….taking all 500 and. 1000 notes out of circulation, making 100 rupees ($2) the largest denomination……hoping to curb corruption with this move….A financial nightmare thrown at 1.3 billion people in secret. You will be walking around with a backpack full of hundreds!

#81 Mark M. on 11.14.16 at 10:40 pm

I see that WalMark can talk about the gold slam down on a non-gold blog but I can’t question how Trump is going to fund his infrastructure renewal?

Monetary stimulus Garth, also known as QE. Indeed, nothing has changed.

So where’s my earlier post?

#82 InvestorsFriend on 11.14.16 at 10:42 pm

Why U.S. preferred shares are down

#48 Shawn on 11.14.16 at 8:43 pm asked:
Why are preferred shares selling off in the US?

*****************************************
Perpetual preferred shares are less valuable as rates rise. New perpetual preferred shares will be issued at a higher rate than was the case a month ago. Perpetuity can be a rather long time to be stuck with a below market interest rate.

In Canada, the majority of preferred shares are now rate reset shares which behave entirely different due the rate reset feature.

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.14.16 at 10:45 pm

#48 Shawn on 11.14.16 at 8:43 pm
Why are preferred shares selling off in the US?
————-
Shawn,
I thought you were the know it all.

#84 Smoking Man on 11.14.16 at 10:51 pm

#75 IHCTD9 on 11.14.16 at 10:12 pm
#38 The American on 11.14.16 at 7:51 pm
At #4: Beg to differ. Not everyone thinks Trump is a good thing. In fact, the majority of Americans voted. They voted for Hillary. So far her lead is nearly 2,000,000 votes more than Trump, and STILL COUNTING. Americans spoke, and the popular vote was pro Hillary, whether you like it or not. There’s always December 19th… And now, THIS! http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/11/john-oliver-donald-trump-president-last-week-tonight
——-

Good grief, after weeks and weeks of listening to you blithering on about how the EC works, and giving us all a never ending education on how Trump can’t win, now are we going to have to endure weeks more of butt-hurt, sourpuss, blubbering, RE-education that it’s not the EC, but the popular vote that matters most?

LOL!

The minute I realized Trump was going to win, I understood just how much fun the next few months were going to be. Mountains of unbunchable panties piled in the streets, crow carcasses everywhere, demoralized democrats grovelling for understanding with their mouths full of dirt, hoards of prepubescent females committing acts of self immolation and calling Trump a racist, misogynist, nazi, killer, rapist, criminal, fascist, liar, bully, corrupt, offensive, absurd, vulgar, boorish, nutjob, loser, lslamophobe, homophobe, narcissist, sexist, blah, blah, blah…

Hopefully, you and your ass-blustered ilk keep it up – then I can watch it all happen again in 4 years :).
………

I need to go to the hosital now, think I broke a rib laughing so hard at visulising you dislodging the lefy loons.

#85 Bram on 11.14.16 at 11:31 pm

So… Teranet House Price Index for October will be out tomorrow.

Place your bets… what will YVR’s month over month be?

Last month, it was +0.18%
This month?

I’ll start: I’m guessing -0.34% month over month.

#86 jane24 on 11.14.16 at 11:33 pm

That house in Glace Bay is why Nova Scotia is currently being sold here in England by the Sunday Times as an affordable place for a second or retirement home. I also understand that due to its BRACING climate, it is now popular retirement destination for Germans. If you see a swimmer in the English Channel in the Winter than you have a 100% certainly that he/she is German. They seems to like torturing themselves.

#87 Joe2.0 on 11.14.16 at 11:42 pm

70c cdn dollar on its way.
Much US anti Trump dollars heading this way.
300ml US population vs 30ml CDN.
Or let’s talk a billion Chinese.
It’s all about numbers.
Larger populations=more money.

#88 Uneducated realtor on 11.14.16 at 11:43 pm

I admit it is don’t even have high school. Being a realtor allowed me to earn a living by lying aND making up stories that are pure fiction. RE industry isn’t regulated so we can do and say whatever we want. Yes we are useless scum but we have fooled the masses and the conservative government who allowed and helped creat the housing bubble. Conservatives are just useless and evil like realtors.

#89 Freedom First on 11.14.16 at 11:47 pm

#37 Bat Flipper

Yes. How many people are having, or are continuing to have children when/while they are living below the poverty line, either from low wages or from being on social assistance?

Seems to be a question I never hear being asked. Is this question Politically Incorrect in today’s world?

007
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#90 Freedom First on 11.15.16 at 12:06 am

#71 Lana

Yes. Lana. You are doing the right thing. If you don’t like the first 3 comments, then for sure you would really hate mine.

#91 Balmuto on 11.15.16 at 12:33 am

“#38 The American on 11.14.16 at 7:51 pm
At #4: Beg to differ. Not everyone thinks Trump is a good thing. In fact, the majority of Americans voted. They voted for Hillary. So far her lead is nearly 2,000,000 votes more than Trump, and STILL COUNTING. Americans spoke, and the popular vote was pro Hillary, whether you like it or not.”

Funny, I distinctly remember you saying that Trump couldn’t win because even if he won the popular vote he would never win the electoral college. And yet the opposite happened. For the record, I don’t think he is a good thing either. But he won the electoral college, and that’s all that matters. This election is over; time to start preparing for the next one.

#92 paulo on 11.15.16 at 12:38 am

Ontario tax break for first time buyers: smoke and mirrors
you couldn’t by a johnny on the spot for 350 in the gta
beware Greeks bearing gifts
watch the bond markets moving forward they will be the story in the next 4 Qs
Wild bill would better be described as tonto he correctly read the hoof prints: first Mtg funding at 4+% by Q3 2017 the 5% down crowd under water, going to be a crual winter

#93 Lurker on 11.15.16 at 1:01 am

Garth,
There’s no doubt you’re a fairly smart guy and you often make accurate predictions (in the micro world of Canadian Real Estate anyway).
But, like most Canadians you (mistakenly) get all your news from Main Stream Media.
You misunderstood THE most important event in your lifetime case you were lookin’ the wrong way.
All those people surprised by the US election outcome were living in a bubble; only reading news that fit the opinion they were told to have and consumed with “confirmation bias”.
Hopefully a few more folks will get the message. MSM does not report the news, their objective is to MAKE the news.
It’s not working so well anymore though. Folks are wakin’ up.
BTW, the same people who were trying to MAKE the US election, made our election.
That’s how we got a guy with limited Life experience, NO Political experience and NO Business experience as PM.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that he looks like a puppet who’s doing someone else’s bidding.
That’s exactly what he’s doing: acting on behalf of the Elites (Soros crowd) who put him there.
The world is more stable (and WWIII is much LESS likely) now that the US has a president who wants to make nice rather than enrich the military industrial complex.
We are living in the nightmare that Eisenhower predicted (and JFK got assassinated trying to stop).
The US has identified Trump as a likely candidate to close the virtual prison that the US has slowly become over the last few decades.
I wish him well.

#94 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Field HQ on 11.15.16 at 1:11 am

The tears of the deranged, unhinged left, the timid numale and millenial, the soccer mom, CTV News, and the cuckold, are quite palpable today.

It is human nature to seek culpability in time of perceived tragedy, it is a sign of strength to cry out against fate rather than to bow one’s head and succumb.

Inevitably many will fault the hands upon the sword which felled Hillary and her Borgist cabal, but the Trump mandate merely performs the duty on behalf of the nation. To further fear him is redundant, to hate him – heretical.

Those more sensible will place responsibility with those who forced the hands of a popular insurrection. With some fortune, they may foster this hatred into purpose, and further rule their own fate by coming to the Emperor’s service.

IMO, Trump couldn’t have nominated better staff heads. I just hope State Department goes to Newt Gingrich, and not that serpent Bolton.

The Emperor protects..

#95 Ronaldo on 11.15.16 at 1:30 am

#32 Pete on 11.14.16 at 7:23 pm

”Get out of silver now. Buy back in at $9-$10 in about 6-8 months.”
—————————————————————-

Please explain how you arrive at such a conclusion and are you talking U.S. or Cdn dollars? If you are saying U.S. then what would it be in Cdn dollars?

#96 Metaxa on 11.15.16 at 1:35 am

Week One:
No wall…maybe, possibly some wall and fences.
No total illegal deportations, just some of them.
No prison for Hillary.
Roe/Wade is staying.
Same sex marriage is staying.
No repeal of Obamacare, maybe, possibly some of it, dunno.
And you Drain the Swamp by appointing an ex banker out of Goldman Sachs with ties to Soros as Treasury head.

Pretty good, this making America Great thing, eh?

Oh, and the kids all get top security clearance because reasons….

As today’s youth puts it: LOL

#97 Ronaldo on 11.15.16 at 1:41 am

#48 Shawn on 11.14.16 at 8:43 pm

Why are preferred shares selling off in the US?
———————————————————–
Oops, didn’t you mean to post under your previous name?

#98 Andrew t on 11.15.16 at 1:51 am

#83 Smoking Man on 11.14.16 at 10:51 pm
#75 IHCTD9 on 11.14.16 at 10:12 pm
#38 The American on 11.14.16 at 7:51 pm
At #4: Beg to differ. Not everyone thinks Trump is a good thing. In fact, the majority of Americans voted. They voted for Hillary. So far her lead is nearly 2,000,000 votes more than Trump, and STILL COUNTING. Americans spoke, and the popular vote was pro Hillary, whether you like it or not. There’s always December 19th… And now, THIS! http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/11/john-oliver-donald-trump-president-last-week-tonight
——-

Good grief, after weeks and weeks of listening to you blithering on about how the EC works, and giving us all a never ending education on how Trump can’t win, now are we going to have to endure weeks more of butt-hurt, sourpuss, blubbering, RE-education that it’s not the EC, but the popular vote that matters most?

LOL!

The minute I realized Trump was going to win, I understood just how much fun the next few months were going to be. Mountains of unbunchable panties piled in the streets, crow carcasses everywhere, demoralized democrats grovelling for understanding with their mouths full of dirt, hoards of prepubescent females committing acts of self immolation and calling Trump a racist, misogynist, nazi, killer, rapist, criminal, fascist, liar, bully, corrupt, offensive, absurd, vulgar, boorish, nutjob, loser, lslamophobe, homophobe, narcissist, sexist, blah, blah, blah…

Hopefully, you and your ass-blustered ilk keep it up – then I can watch it all happen again in 4 years :).
………

I need to go to the hosital now, think I broke a rib laughing so hard at visulising you dislodging the lefy loons.


Yeah, that was outstanding.
IHCTD9, I may not agree with your politics, but as connesseur of fine invective I tip my hat.
That was pro.
Smokey, credit where it’s due, you called it.
I had that one all wrong.
I’m still a lefty, though, just not of the miserable ones.

#99 Self Directed on 11.15.16 at 2:01 am

#74 Questions on 11.14.16 at 10:08 pm

#3 homeboy – look inside that etf, yo

You’re paying a management fee (small but still), where you could just buy equal amounts of the big 6 Canada banks straight up.
———————————-
#74 Questions, you’re not wrong
https://www.bmo.com/gam/ca/advisor/products/etfs#fundUrl=%2FfundProfile%2FZEB%23holdings

But, then homeboy would have to pay 6 commission fees @ 9.99 ea.

Homeboy should pick up some DOL. It’s on sale and has growth potential. I figure if CTC can hit $138.00 so can DOL. Also, Fortis FTS is probably going to be around for awhile since everyone needs to heat their homes. A good long term pick. Good dividend yield. And no MER’s.

#100 TRT on 11.15.16 at 2:36 am

Heading off to India to see the chaos brought by a Corruption “Extinction Level Event”!

1) Physical gold is up 50% in price in less than a week. Wow. 250KG of Gold sold in Mumbai in hours. Importing of gold into India going to be banned.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/business/gold-touches-rs-50-000-in-mumbai-black-market/320951.html

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/crackdown-on-gold-traders-nov-15-may-be-last-day-for-jewellers-to-deposit-old-notes-116111400142_1.html

2) US Dollars being exchanged at 100% premium. Wow. Any foreign currency being snapped up in India.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/demonetisation-traders-selling-dollar-at-110-against-official-rate-of-67-116111400338_1.html

#101 Damifino on 11.15.16 at 2:46 am

#71 Lana

“Blog comments are toxic, I read the first 3, and then bye bye.”
———————————

Here you must learn to separate the wheat from the chaff. There is precious little of the former and much of the latter. It requires some time and effort.

Eventually, one can become quite proficient at not absorbing useless posts. But I don’t blame you if you can’t be bothered due to the high chaff/wheat ratio.

And if you can’t be bothered, then bye-bye Lana. Another idealist is waiting in line to take your place.

#102 BS on 11.15.16 at 2:52 am

#38 The American on 11.14.16 at 7:51 pm

At #4: Beg to differ. Not everyone thinks Trump is a good thing. In fact, the majority of Americans voted. They voted for Hillary.

Congratulations on your new president Trump.

Can you please explain to us Canadians about how the electoral college works again? If I recall it made it impossible for Trump to be elected.

#103 Mark on 11.15.16 at 3:16 am

“There is a greater probability of stagflation which isn’t good for anyone. “

The TSX did very well in the 1970s and early 1980s because of stagflation. So I don’t know if I’d say “isn’t good for anyone”. The TSX is so disproportionately weighted in sectors which respond well to rising interest rates and rising inflation (hence why its performed so poorly for the past 20-30 years!). Of course, so many Canadians won’t be able to participate because they basically “bet the farm” on RE which has been a waste of investment capital for the past 3 years of stagnant prices and now is suffering significant losses.

#104 Rising rates on 11.15.16 at 3:43 am

Just a matter of time

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/11/tuesday-retail-sales.html?m=1

Usually canada follows usa

#105 Wrk.dover on 11.15.16 at 6:46 am

When I met my wife in 79 she was renting a 1755 house with some newer add on’s. With the thermostat at 60 it cost $1500/year for heat. Oil is up what, nine fold by now?

That Glace Bay house is a liability and nothing else.

I thought it would be impossible to miss my point. Once again, I am astonished. — Garth

#106 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 7:19 am

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/close-encounters-in-canada-ufo-data-reveals-unexplained-alien-sightings-1.2856709

If you click on the map. Look how many orange fire balls are witnessed.

#107 Darryl on 11.15.16 at 7:21 am

#76 Flopper Fan (still) on 11.14.16 at 10:21 pm
#11 Johnny D on 11.14.16 at 5:57 pm
http://www.berkes.ca/archive/XTR_analysis.pdf-
——————————————————————-
Thanks Flopper Fan
Great to know .

#108 The American on 11.15.16 at 7:33 am

At 101: BS, Electoral College is what matters when electing the President of the U.S., not popular vote. At the time, bloggers were speculating the American population would come out in droves and cast their popular votes for Trump, causing for him to win. That isn’t how it works.

In fact, Hillary won the popular vote in this case, initially by over 600,000 votes, and soon to be expected by as much as 2,000,000 votes over trump, once all counting is completed.

Delegates are to cast their respective votes, as courtesy of the constituents they represent, for the party their constituents represented the majority within their respective districts.

U.S. = A Constitutional Republic, NOT a democracy. See the difference?

So, at the time predictions were being made, the evidence was quite clear that Hillary was already at the Delegate count she would need in order to win this election quite easily, as all polls indicated. Was I wrong to coincide with what was repeatedly the same information in nearly every poll being applied? Absolutely, and this is also unprecedented.

Now, one more thing… Contrary to what many like yourself believe, the President still has not yet been officially chosen. November 8th, Americans cast their votes. In turn, this provides a depiction across the U.S. of how the Delegates are to cast their votes. This provides for the President Elect to begin making provision to choose his/her staff, cabinet, appointments, etc., prior to assuming office. However, the Delegates do not cast their vote until the second Monday in December, or in this case this year on December 19th. This provides for any disputes in the initial popular election on November 8th to be resolved, prior to the Delegates casting their votes on Dec. 19th. It is at this moment that the next President is actually officially chosen. No give backs. No do overs. It is done.

With this in mind, you may be hearing clamoring for the Delegates to “do the right thing and to do their jobs” and NOT cast their ballots for Trump within the respective districts they represent that may have given the majority of the votes to Trump within those specific districts. Is this legal? Absolutely. And the Constitution lays out very clear path for this to happen, specifically in cases where an individual may be deemed unfit to serve. This is why our founding fathers were genius, as it allowed a deemed lunatic from gaining power. Would this kind of power be unprecedented? Yes.

As of today, many, many believe the Delegates may cast their votes in direct opposition of how some of their districts voted. A universal petition is circling, requesting that the Delegates “do their job” this one time. Will they? Who knows, but if ever I’ve seen the time to exercise this loophole, now is the time. I doubt they do excursive it, given that the popular vote will end about 2,000,000 in Hillary’s favor, representing about a 1.5% variance. That’s actually sizable, but is it enough to justify this action?

I am still resting assured the my America is not a majority of trump-supporting individuals. Clearly it is not. This is the second time in 16 years the Electoral College has completely screwed the Democrats, but then again it was never intended to represent the majority of votes, otherwise their really wouldn’t be a need for it, right? So maybe on December 19th we may see things become more interesting. Not holding my breath, though.

#109 Mishuko on 11.15.16 at 7:41 am

It’s been a week of non stop crying on my fb feed. I unfriend a lot recently. I want my feed to be filled with cars, meme, cosplay and aesthetic pictures. People been filling my safe place with overly emotional crap complaining about something they have no control over.

It’s like when trudope was elected everyone was all sunshine and rainbows. I wanted to make the dollar so I dropped some coin into LP stock. Ya I made out on top. Still have a small position that’s up 300% on the books. Going to close out the rest of the position when the gut says so.

Now only if I had the nuts to do forex… I got creamed a few times doing it with fake accounts.

#110 maxx on 11.15.16 at 7:53 am

With increasing rates will come a healthy economy.
TPTB seem to be realizing that newfangled quant dreams and magic tricks do not produce real wealth.
A robust economy could never and will never be built upon borrowing and debt.
Impossible.
The type of economy we all end up with is one where every fool (and imho, we’re all fools of one sort or another- especially government) truly believes they have a god-given right to live the life of the rich and famous. Hysterical.
People have to earn and work for wealth.
Debt simply distorts the fabric of society and causes government to behave weirdly with our hard-earned taxes.
Let the rate rises begin!

#111 The American on 11.15.16 at 7:57 am

At 59: MF, please re-read my post in response to blogger at #4. He/she said “I’ll state what everyone actuall thinks….GOOOOO TRUMP!”

Clearly not everybody does think this, or he would have picked up the popular vote as well. That’s the point. He is winning by way of EC, whom still haven’t cast their votes until December 19th. Will they? Probably. Should they? It would be a first time to exercise this power, hence why you see so many in protest (and acting like goddamn idiots) because the results didn’t yield them what they wanted. Yes, the majority of these who are not peacefully protesting are millennials. Why? Because that is a generation who’s never understood what it means to lose, even if they should have fair and square.

#112 maxx on 11.15.16 at 7:59 am

#5 E-mail Wild bill and get CMHC SHUT DOWN on

“Mark to market” has such a lovely ring to it………

Anyone having purchased re in the past 6 months very likely has been had.

#113 The American on 11.15.16 at 8:06 am

Smoking Man, I agree with you that the protests taking place are ridiculous in the manner that many are behaving. However, those believing Americans should move to Canada because of the results, I beg to differ. It means now, more than ever, those Americans are needed right here at home.

You seem to like satire. So take 29 minutes and watch the most recent Last Week Tonight episode. It clearly explains why there is so much emotion within this election, especially when force-ranked in elections past. The gravity of it isn’t about dollars, as much as it is about preserving civil liberties that were made for so many millions of Americans under the current Obama administration. And no, Smoking Man, nobody got his/her guns taken away under Democratic rule (as usual, or as the right wing nutters so desperately have to believe).

http://www.tvguide.com/news/john-oliver-donald-trump-last-week-tonight/

#114 maxx on 11.15.16 at 8:11 am

#8 Bram on 11.14.16 at 5:50 pm

“And you know what this means for Canadian real estate values, right?

Higher USD makes CAD housing look cheap for Trump-refugees, causing domestic real estate values to go up? :-)

Don’t be surprised if Bank of Canada will go in opposite direction either!”

Not a chance…..T2 isn’t in Europe courting the international business community simply to dangle the carrot of currency advantage. He wants business through the front doors, our economy to rev up again and the ability to lock-step with rising rates elsewhere in the known economic universe. It’s unfolding in the U.S. and will anywhere else that matters.

Americans and foreigners are highly unlikely to arrive in droves to buy comparatively crappy re in the frozen north when they can be buying far better international locations. Much boomer wealth has matured past locations convenient to work.

Portfolio accordingly. :-)

#115 jess on 11.15.16 at 8:19 am

We just need a President to sign this stuff …
Grover Norquist, in a speech to the American Conservative Union,
cpac 2012
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wYYX0mZsQA

see :Ryan budget

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.16 at 8:24 am

@#99 TNT
“Importing of gold into India going to be banned.”
********************************************

India has tried banning the illegal importation of gold on and off for decades…….Its never worked.

Something about gold being an integral part of religious ceremonies like marriage I believe.

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/20/business/indian-wedding-gold-jewelery-prices/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwi7g9DY7arQAhVS5GMKHXoqCr8QFgguMAk&usg=AFQjCNHvONBihvEJMAcGXjAYd0rbf_J1mw

Good luck banning gold imports so that the govt can tax the “legal” gold…….

#117 jess on 11.15.16 at 8:30 am

“This is our plan for 2017,” Ryan said, waving a copy of his “Better Way” policy agenda. “Much of this you can do through budget reconciliation.” He explained that key pieces are “fiscal in nature,” meaning they can be moved quickly through a budget maneuver that requires a simple majority in the Senate and House. “This is our game plan for 2017,”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/paul-ryan-budget-congress-229216

#118 Wrk.dover on 11.15.16 at 9:15 am

If alternatively your point is the 72G ltt dough could have got you something tangible, how about a bung built to modern code. They are available in N.S. aplenty, rural.

#119 Ronaldo on 11.15.16 at 9:15 am

#92 Lurker

I couldn’t have said it better.

#120 Jungle on 11.15.16 at 9:25 am

Breaking: Royal bank increasing mortgage rates as bond yields surge.

This is all escalating quickly now. I think the housing market is going to look very different in 1 year from now.

#121 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.15.16 at 9:36 am

it’s a good thing that Americans use the electoral college instead of the popular vote. otherwise you would just need new york and california to vote and everyone else can stay home.

that’d be a nightmare

#122 Ronaldo on 11.15.16 at 9:44 am

#120 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.15.16 at 9:36 am

it’s a good thing that Americans use the electoral college instead of the popular vote. otherwise you would just need new york and california to vote and everyone else can stay home.

that’d be a nightmare
———————————————————–
kinda like in Canada with Ontario and Quebec, eh?

#123 pBrasseur on 11.15.16 at 9:55 am

#107 The American

Don’t you think people who voted libertarian would much prefer to see a republican elected than a democrat. After all there are many libertarians withing the GOP, not so on the democratic side.

If that is true then the vote was clearly leaning republican and trump would have won a second turn if such a thing existed.

But it doesn’t and for that reason the popular vote is irrelevant.

Either way I’m happy to at last see a pro business executive branch in DC, it’s not a moment to soon IMO…

#124 Johnny Boy on 11.15.16 at 9:56 am

#64 Smoking Man on 11.14.16 at 9:39 pm
#57 soost on 11.14.16 at 9:21 pm
Garth some publications and another notably bearish Real Estate blog have mentioned that:
Trump Presidency = Inflationary Policies = Increase in Inflation Linked Assets = Increase in RE Prices
You seem to acknowledge that this Inflation will lead to > interest rates and therefore will cool the housing market.
So who wins?
A. The rising tide of inflation that brings housing along for the ride.
B. The chilling effect of Interest Rates as a Response to that growth/inflation.
My worry would be that real growth based inflation rather than stagflation will take place in USA and housing prices will rise.
What is everyone’s opinion?
……………..
Thanks for the invite.
Canada is doomed, we have dumb stupid fairytale sunny ways teachers at the controls who lives in a fiction novel, I’m just a writer of one, that no one wants.
Payroll tax going up, Carbon tax, tax, tax, tax.
The USA going back to coal = cheap power. where you going to open your plant, or put your servers. Canada, Bahahaha
How about an office where your staff gets to be off for 18 months on mat leave.
I’m so happy all my stuff was off shored 2 years ago, what’s left, a shit bungalow, in a shit area, mortgaged to the nines, the story has it all that loot went to Seneca, I have an old pick up truck with 300k on it. It can barely run, if I time my escape to south America good, that’s the day the engine dies.
When shit hits the fan, I drop the keys to the house off to my former employer. and leave the truck in the driveway as a gift.
Ok, that’s a fiction story, but Mabey it’s not.
……………………………………………………………………
You are a massive uncontrolled narcissist Smoking Man. You can not wait to publish photos of yourself and tell all of us how great you are. Master book author and all. The problem is that your authenticity is filtering into your fabricated fantasy world. We all know you live at 57 James St with a beat up pickup with a broken window. You used to talk about a boat and sure enough there is a purple boat parked there. Saw the gazebo too. Thanks for telling us your fence was tagged. I had to have a one day look as I back on to Toronto golf Club, not far from you at all. So what is the truth? If you’ve used that poor souls address as a red hearing then that’s just sad. By the way how do you know if anyone here works for the CRA? I pay my fair share of taxes and can sleep at night.

#125 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.15.16 at 9:58 am

#109 maxx on 11.15.16 at 7:53 am
With increasing rates will come a healthy economy.
TPTB seem to be realizing that newfangled quant dreams and magic tricks do not produce real wealth.
A robust economy could never and will never be built upon borrowing and debt.
Impossible.
The type of economy we all end up with is one where every fool (and imho, we’re all fools of one sort or another- especially government) truly believes they have a god-given right to live the life of the rich and famous. Hysterical.
People have to earn and work for wealth.
Debt simply distorts the fabric of society and causes government to behave weirdly with our hard-earned taxes.
Let the rate rises begin!

EXACTLY!

Deter borrowing and encourage investment.

No pain, no gain.

#126 Braj on 11.15.16 at 10:03 am

#41 espressobob on 11.14.16 at 8:17 pm
Dollar cost averaging?

Is this ETF a buy?

What happened to the bond market?

Should I buy gold?

Individual stocks?

Sector plays?

Inverse ETFs?

Morningstars ratings on mutual funds? Past performance.

Mutual funds?

Hedge funds?

Segregated funds?

Is this investment taxable?

Should I sell?

So you wanna be a DIY investor?

—–

Couch potato portfolio, choose your asset allocation. Keep it simple. you can mess around with 5% of the portfolio to satisfy urges. I believe this is the way to go for many of us.

#127 pBrasseur on 11.15.16 at 10:07 am

it’s a good thing that Americans use the electoral college instead of the popular vote. otherwise you would just need new york and california to vote and everyone else can stay home. #120 WalMark of Sadkatoon

Absolutely. the purpose of EC is to protect a certain balance between regions to prevent situation where a few heavily leaning regions could impose their will to the whole country, a recipe for disaster in any federal country.

If the democrats were on the other end of this thing they’d be the first to acknowledge the wisdom of it.

Meanwhile they (DEMS) are looking more and more like a regional party, they have lost over a 1000 seats in the past few years, if they want to get back in power they need to move closer to the population, not just in CA and NY. It’s going to be hard for them, right now the momentum is for Bernie and the likes. Moving more to the left would be a big mistake IMO.

#128 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.15.16 at 10:08 am

I’m wondering what the replacement cost of that house in Cape Breton would be?

New construction costs in Kelowna have gone nuts. Try crank that back when the market tanks. Prices are fluid on the way up and oh so sticky on the way down… especially when it comes to that big component of new construction… labour costs.

#129 RBC drops the bomb 2.94% on 11.15.16 at 10:16 am

Wow…virgins to the slaughter

Realtors eating kraft dinner soon….

http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/royal-bank-of-canada-to-increase-fixed-mortgage-rates-as-of-thursday-217137.aspx

#130 45north on 11.15.16 at 10:18 am

Just weeks after the feds moved to massively curtail demand by first-time buyers who can’t actually afford the houses they’ve been buying, Ontario brings in yet another subsidy

newspaper columnist David Reevely talking about the Ontario Government:

Actually attacking real estate prices would be devastating to people who’ve borrowed every penny they can to buy in. A sharp decline in prices is one of the major risks to the province’s finances that the legislature’s budget watchdog pointed out in a report at the beginning of November. Obviously the government’s not going to do that to itself.

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/reevely-ontarios-minibudget-helps-first-time-homebuyers-but-only-a-tiny-bit

well true enough but a substantial drop in real estate prices will not only take revenue from Ontario’s budget it would take political support from the Ontario Liberals.

let’s take a step back, the American housing market crashed in 2006. The American middle class was deeply scarred. Ten years later a disaffected middle class elected Donald Trump who promised to bring back the glory days. In the US, it took 10 years for the economic loss to work its way into the political system.

I think Kathleen Wynne, Premier of Ontario is increasingly at odds with Paul Morneau, Finance Minister of Canada. Paul Morneau seems to be okay with a Canadian version of the housing crash but Wynne isn’t. This is a fight for the heart and soul of Canada.

#131 RBC nuke warfare 3.04% on 11.15.16 at 10:28 am

wow….hammering clients now…..3.04% !!!

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/royal-bank-raises-its-discounted-mortgage-rates-across-the-board

#132 TurnerNation on 11.15.16 at 10:31 am

Here in Kommunist Kanada Ontario is eyeing a guaranteed minimum income for everyone.
Perfect for T2 stoners sitting around all day.

Capitalism must be punished. Tune in turn on and drop out.

#133 NoName on 11.15.16 at 10:33 am

@fartz and tnt

I always sad if you want to invest in india invest in onions, but no one listen to me anyways…

http://capitalmind.in/2013/10/onion-charts-show-we-have-highest-prices-in-12-years/

#134 John of Grant on 11.15.16 at 10:33 am

84 Brian

So… Teranet House Price Index for October will be out tomorrow.

Place your bets… what will YVR’s month over month be?

Last month, it was +0.18%
This month?

I’ll start: I’m guessing -0.34% month over month.

———————

+.3% second strongest Oct since ’05

#135 NoName on 11.15.16 at 10:35 am

and this
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/onion-prices

#136 Mark M. on 11.15.16 at 10:54 am

After being so thoroughly wrong on the election of Trump, it’s remarkable The American is still posting here.

Can’t wait for his excuse when the Fed punts again next month.

#137 pBrasseur on 11.15.16 at 11:14 am

Buffet dumps oilsands investments

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/warren-buffett-dumps-suncor-shares-puts-his-money-in-americans-big-airlines?__lsa=9591-5715

He’s usually a very patient investor, this does not bode well for Alberta and Canada.

#138 Context on 11.15.16 at 11:16 am

#107 The American: – You need to update the popular vote count.

#139 Victor V on 11.15.16 at 11:22 am

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/stalled-vancouver-housing-market-drags-down-stats-for-all-of-british-columbia&pubdate=2016-11-15

British Columbia home prices continued to drop sharply last month but the declines are being driven by the Vancouver market where sales continue to slump, say realtors in the province.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association, which represents about 20,000 realtors, said Tuesday that there 7,272 sales through Multiple Listing Service last month, a 16.7 per cent drop from a year ago. The total volume by dollars was $4.4 billion last month, a 24.2 per cent decline from a year ago.

The average sale price in the province was $606,787 in October, a 9.1 per cent decline from a year earlier.

#140 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 11:26 am

I can’t wait for the lefties to start calling people that disagree with them

Homophones or Homonyms.

Shit you learn on the Internet.

Homophones are words that are pronounced the same but are spelled differently and have different meanings: knew and new; too, to and two; or cite, sight and site, for instance.

Homonyms are words that are spelled the same but have different meanings. For example: Bear, to carry; and Bear, the animal that hibernates all winter.

#141 Victor V on 11.15.16 at 11:26 am

http://www.bnn.ca/royal-bank-of-canada-to-hike-fixed-mortgage-rates-on-thursday-1.608361

TORONTO — Royal Bank (RY.TO 0.74%) said Tuesday it is hiking mortgage rates and making it more expensive for homebuyers who want to take more than 25 years to pay back their loan.

The bank is raising its special offer for a five-year fixed rate mortgage to 2.94 per cent, an increase of 30 basis points.

The lender is also raising its special offer for a four-year fixed rate mortgage to 2.79 per cent and three-year fixed rate mortgage to 2.69 per cent, increases of 30 and 25 basis points, respectively.

Homebuyers who opt for an amortization period longer than 25 years will also face new rates. The special offer rates for three-, four- and five-year fixed rate mortgages are 10 basis points higher than for those with an amortization of 25 years or less.

The changes take effect Thursday.

#142 rainclouds on 11.15.16 at 11:27 am

# 17 Alice “Vancouver real estate is finally crashing. Idiots that purchased houses a few months ago are selling at a loss. These people didn’t even factor in the transfer taxes in BC. ”

Huh?

1: In ALL examples a RE fee OF 5% of TOTAL amount is used. EG: the first house in Burnaby, the fee is calculated as 67k on aprox 1.3m

Maybe in PEI but not BC.

In fact the fee is 7% on the first 100k and 3.5 % on the remainder, aprox 49k (and could easily be negotiated DOWN by several thousand)

2: The transfer tax is paid by the purchaser NOT the Vendor so wouldn’t affect the outcome for the seller

Your provided link is marginally instructive in a general sense. Highlighting that speculators in the burbs are getting a tune up for the big show………

#143 Cici on 11.15.16 at 11:27 am

Up, up, up she goes: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/royal-bank-mortgage-rates-1.3851423

#144 Balmuto on 11.15.16 at 11:29 am

RBC hiking mortgage rates. Five year fixed increased by 40 bps. Wow.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/royal-bank-mortgage-rates-1.3851423

#145 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 11:31 am

#123 Johnny Boy on 11.15.16 at 9:56 am

I’m naked and shaking in my boots. Bring it teacher.

#146 TurnerNation on 11.15.16 at 11:36 am

Kanadians starving in bread lines but our elite leaders theft our tax monies overseas for “climate change” scams.

Take a selfie while in bread line and tag T2 in social media.

Double-digits usage spikes:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/food-bank-report-2016-1.3850897?cmp=rss

#147 n1tro on 11.15.16 at 11:38 am

The American

Isnt the majority of the 2 million popular vote difference for Hillary based in California? If so, what does that tell you? Tells me that Hillary is more popular in a state that is traditional very liberal. So what? Nothing new. Hoping and dreaming the EC will vote someone else in Dec 19th is just that…hopes and dreams.

#148 Russ on 11.15.16 at 11:43 am

Wrk.dover on 11.15.16 at 6:46 am
When I met my wife in 79 she was renting a 1755 house with some newer add on’s. With the thermostat at 60 it cost $1500/year for heat. Oil is up what, nine fold by now?
That Glace Bay house is a liability and nothing else.

I thought it would be impossible to miss my point. Once again, I am astonished. — Garth
========================

Let me help out Bro.

Listen up puppies. The point is, you can buy a decent house & property in another area for the same price that you are going to pay in a single (transfer) tax payment in GTA.

It doesn’t really matter but if you wish to belabor a point, I expect the difference in property taxes for the two areas would cover most of the heating bill, so try to keep up eh.

#149 mishuko on 11.15.16 at 11:46 am

Cape Bretons cabbot trail is amazing… did a road trip out there and stayed at a BB in Baddeck.

Wonderful small town that had a population less than my highschool.

#150 InvestorsFriend on 11.15.16 at 11:46 am

Children living Poverty?

#88 Freedom First on 11.14.16 at 11:47 pm posted:

#37 Bat Flipper
Yes. How many people are having, or are continuing to have children when/while they are living below the poverty line, either from low wages or from being on social assistance?

Seems to be a question I never hear being asked. Is this question Politically Incorrect in today’s world?

******************************************
Freedom First. Thank you for the alert. Yes, your taxes should be raised to subsidise the children of the poor.

It takes a village to raise the children.

A village that allowed the children and mothers to live in poverty while the warriors and hunters feasted would be rightly vilified.

We are now well into the affluent economy. It is capital (factories and investments) that now produce almost all of the wealth now and not labour. Labour is becoming obsolete. The concept of a “job” will become obsolete within perhaps 40 years or so.

The question now is and will remain how to more fairly distribute the wealth while not discouraging effort and investment and while encouraging socially desirable behaviors.

We will also tax capital more heavily, especially upon death, so that it cannot be very much hoarded intergenerationally.

#151 fancy_pants on 11.15.16 at 11:50 am

I expect hyperinflation before any significant rate increases. They have a muzzle on inflation numbers and the pedal to the floor on cheap $. I suspect the erasers are wearing thin and the fudge-a-nuts are losing sleep at StatsCan. hope I am wrong.

Relax. You are. — Garth

#152 Context on 11.15.16 at 11:50 am

#135 Mark M:- The American is amusing as must be forgiven for his Peter Pan moments from time to time.

#153 Bram on 11.15.16 at 11:55 am

Hot off the press this morning:

Vancouver home prices are -0.61% compared to last month.

Toronto homes are +1.16% compared to last month.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

#154 Eks dee Sipal on 11.15.16 at 11:58 am

#101 BS

Now, now. Even our illustrious host boasted about the virtuous electoral college. Even though the American is a woman realtor who owns several villas around the US and probably around the world, and spews anti-Canadian hatred, let’s forgive and forget, shall we? I actually look forward to more posts by the American.

I see also that Shawn aka InvestorsFriend has time on his hands or is being paid by the banking cartel to post nonsense once again, and to converse with himself. Very weird. He seems to think that money can just vanish into thin air when bond prices decrease, but not vice versa, oh no, that would be impossible, right?

There is a reason why financial literacy is not taught in schools. Here it is:

Commercial banks enjoy a FIRST DIBS monopoly on money created by the state central bank. Commercial banks enjoy profits they call ‘the spread’ for producing absolutely nothing. Commercial banks originate from family lineages that can be traced back as far as one wants to, and the ‘money’ that they lend to the citizens was borne out of Royal chartered theft and industrial monopoly from both centuries past and modern day. In other words, it’s a family business.

http://positivemoney.org/how-money-works/advanced/how-central-banks-create-money/

#155 RBC mrtg rates going up on 11.15.16 at 11:59 am

The dominos finally start to fall…

#156 Joe2.0 on 11.15.16 at 12:04 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-14/world-s-biggest-real-estate-binge-is-coming-to-a-city-near-you

My post didn’t make the cut yesterday.
But Bloomberg seems to be on the same page regarding wealthy home buyers not being concerned with monetary restrictions…

#157 Eks dee Sipal on 11.15.16 at 12:08 pm

0.6% decline in Vancouver home prices. http://www.bnn.ca/vancouver-home-prices-dip-for-first-time-in-almost-2-years-ontario-prices-rise-1.608362

Royal Bank hikes mortgage rates
2nd major Canadian bank in a month to hike lending rates.http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/royal-bank-mortgage-rates-1.3851423

#158 Tudval on 11.15.16 at 12:14 pm

“Trump will be the Inflation President, running up the deficit, spending outlandishly, cutting taxes and pursuing protectionism”

Some of those policies are not inflationary. For example cutting taxes. Just as well, he won’t be able to spend outlandishly at the same time, as the deficit could soar uncontrollably, so he will need to act on all these fronts with some degree of caution. But there will be a bunch of spending cuts, strange that it doesn’t get mentioned anywhere, but he alluded to that many times.

The overreaction in the markets is just a bunch of gamblers caught on the wrong side of the trade and needing to get out at the same time through a tiny door.

#159 bdwy sktrn on 11.15.16 at 12:18 pm

#38 The American on 11.14.16 at 7:51 pm
At #4: Beg to differ. Not everyone thinks Trump is a good thing. In fact, the majority of Americans voted. They voted for Hillary.
———————————–
here we go again, you keep shoving that foot farther and farther down your throat.

1. “In fact, the majority of Americans voted”

No ‘the silly american’ the majority of americans did not vote. 125m out of 350m is not a majority. please re-do 6th grade math.

2. “the majority of Americans voted. They voted for Hillary.”

a. No ‘the silly american’, the majority of americans did not vote for hillary . (see above)

further,

b. No ‘the silly american’, The majority of eligible voters did not vote for hillary.

c. No ‘the silly american’, The majority of americans who cast a presidential vote did not vote for hillary. (47.9)

you are turing into mark. being wrong before the event is one thing, but getting it so wrong after the results have been in for a week is a true accomplishment of failure to google or think.

Are seattle prices stagnating too? (i hear they are on fire and past/passing vancouver in a flash. – guess van was not so crazy afterall)
———————-
and tractor-man gets the post of the day award for an elegant, powerful and well deserved smackdown of your intolerable pre-election farts.

you just lost any last bit of credibility you may have had here. time for a new handle. “The Non-Canadian” ????

——————-
Too many times to count, i’ve loudly challenged and rebuffed a , sadly all to common, stripe of anti-americanism among misguided bc socalists.
i worked in the us for years -overwhelmingly great, great people. try to blend in.

—————

#160 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.15.16 at 12:20 pm

@107 The American-

Talk about a hamster spinning at warp speed! First of all, the Hillster is ahead by about 200k votes at latest count, so your number is absurd. Second of all, she would need at least 30 “faithless electors” in states that are counted for trump to change their votes. That would be unprecedented.

Good luck with that, Dear.

#161 IHCTD9 on 11.15.16 at 12:41 pm

#123 Johnny Boy on 11.15.16 at 9:56 am

You are a massive uncontrolled narcissist Smoking Man.
____________________________________________

Let me guess, SM said [XXXXX] is going up – better buy in. So you actually did in real life, and then you burned YUUGE in real life. Don’t feel bad, you’re not the first.

I doubt your relentless attacks here on SM are going to bother him much – you are an “also ran” in that dept.

You can’t bend what you can’t offend :)

#162 Renter's Revenge! on 11.15.16 at 12:48 pm

#127 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.15.16 at 10:08 am
I’m wondering what the replacement cost of that house in Cape Breton would be?

New construction costs in Kelowna have gone nuts. Try crank that back when the market tanks. Prices are fluid on the way up and oh so sticky on the way down… especially when it comes to that big component of new construction… labour costs.

=================================

In the aftermath, desperate construction companies and workers will eventually accept lower wages, or go out of business.

We just need to grind ’em down };-)

#163 Braj on 11.15.16 at 12:51 pm

#144 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 11:31 am
#123 Johnny Boy on 11.15.16 at 9:56 am

I’m naked and shaking in my boots. Bring it teacher

—-

Kind of ironic that he calls himself Johnny Boy. Acts like one too, even funnier that you are Smoking Man. Even with all the posts you have they still are 1000x more mature than a response like that. Reeks of something nasty. The type to stab you in the back the second you turn your back.

#164 Johnny Boy on 11.15.16 at 12:53 pm

#130 RBC nuke warfare 3.04% on 11.15.16 at 10:28 am

wow….hammering clients now…..3.04% !!!

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/royal-bank-raises-its-discounted-mortgage-rates-across-the-board
……………………………………………………………………
Why would anyone go variable? I’m locked in low pay min while investing the balance.

#165 IHCTD9 on 11.15.16 at 12:55 pm

#148 mishuko on 11.15.16 at 11:46 am
Cape Bretons cabbot trail is amazing… did a road trip out there and stayed at a BB in Baddeck.

Wonderful small town that had a population less than my highschool.
_________________________

Did the same, stayed at an old motel at Cape North and many B&B’s. Took the ferry to PEI, took the long bridge back. Watched the big tunnel bore on a small creek as the tide came in, went wale watching, ate seafood every day. What a bloody nice place to visit.

#166 NoName on 11.15.16 at 1:15 pm

Nov 15, National Philanthropy Day, plz please donate to cause of your choosing.
I do it to every year, bit to wikipedia and more to kids wish network, last and this year again daughter was collecting canned gods and non perishable for Ronald McDonald House.

#167 Victor on 11.15.16 at 1:18 pm

The LLT exemption is 368,000 (not 386). As a long due first time buyer I am glad. As for going against MST it does not help moisters or their parents to buy an investment condo. They can easily borrow those 4K for LLT tax, but they still have to pass MST.

#168 IHCTD9 on 11.15.16 at 1:23 pm

Now that I’m thinking about a nice place to live – I had some folks over on the weekend. One of them may well be my future Brother in Law. He built himself a timber framed cabin over the course of 8 years.

Cut down the trees, sawmilled them and built the place stick by stick by himself. Wood exterior siding cut by hand, cathedral ceiling front to back with a loft in the rear, walk out basement. Right beside a small lake, tall windows facing the water. What a sweet place this is, labour input was huge and long lasting, cost was low – just how I like it. Land was cheap, property taxes 1500.00/yr about an hour north of 7.

Guy makes squat for income, but I’d kill to have his digs. Woodstove, and acres of bush all around, peace, tranquility, nice floating dock, and he even gets DSL as there is another lake nearby that has a lot of wealthy folks Bell thought they could make a buck off of if they brought it in. I’ll bet he doesn’t have a 100 grand into the whole thing. Guy is just like me, he just had a decade of spare time I never got. Seasonal work making crummy wages, but living in a Northern paradise – it has to be 10X better than making 10X as much living in a GTA sardine can while scraping to make ends meet.

If he ends up marrying my Sister, he’ll have it made in the shade, DINK’s, no mortgage, no anxiety meds.

Go basic wage!!!

#169 Context on 11.15.16 at 1:35 pm

I guess the informed sold out their homes recently in Long Branch as the current similar listings are down substantially. It has no longer become a family destination to buy anything with 84 charges in the past few weeks in Marie Curtis Park for lewd behavior. The police stated it was time to clean up the mess that has been going on for years.

#170 For those about to flop... on 11.15.16 at 1:56 pm

I don’t understand why posters come here with multiple handles and start arguments with themselves.

If I want to do that I can just go and sit on the crapper for five minutes and start arguing with myself in private.

Haven’t lost one argument yet…

M42BC

#171 For those about to flop... on 11.15.16 at 2:26 pm

I was surprised to see that according to this map my old country of Australia has the highest incarceration rate in the world.

I thought America had that title.

I guess that is just total number of inmates…

M42BC

http://m.imgur.com/gallery/MEo0T

#172 rainclouds on 11.15.16 at 2:30 pm

#127 DA “Try crank that back when the market tanks. Prices are fluid on the way up and oh so sticky on the way down… especially when it comes to that big component of new construction… labour costs.”

Houses in the US were going for WELL below construction costs in Las Vegas, Phoenix, All of Florida and most places in California during the GFC

Buuuut its different in Kelowna………………

#173 For those about to flop... on 11.15.16 at 2:41 pm

According to Wikipedia,the US has 693 inmates for every 100,000 people in their population.
Australians are locked up at a rate of 153 for the same number.

So on that map Australia should be green.

Canada’s rate is lower at 114.

China and India don’t seem that interested in locking people up either…

M42BC

#174 Eaglebay on 11.15.16 at 2:46 pm

#159 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.15.16 at 12:20 pm
@107 The American-

“The American” is not American, he’s a troll.
Can’t you tell by his research? Dumb Canadian.

#175 Long Branch Apprentice on 11.15.16 at 2:51 pm

The American,

If you take John Oliver seriously than you have fallen prey to the Edu-Tainment Industrial Complex.

Simplified and obviously biased entertainment masked as news.

Why isn’t Hillary asking for a recount? Because that would show the rigged ballots, the dead people who “voted” Democrat and the millions of illegals whose votes shouldn’t count.

Stop clinging to your dream and wake up.

#176 Context on 11.15.16 at 3:01 pm

I wonder if TurnerNation will be going to the protest rally. There is one being held in the GTA on November 19th with city officials, cops, and the community. The meeting place will be at 2 Forty Second street in Long Branch starting at 1:00 PM to 6:00 PM. The theme is to take the park back so get your signs ready which might read – our dogs will hunt you down; not in our neighbourhood; we can’t take it anymore; or time to move on scumbags.

#177 InvestorsFriend on 11.15.16 at 3:03 pm

InvestorsFriend versus Shawn

#153 Eks dee Sipal on 11.15.16 at 11:58 am said:

I see also that Shawn aka InvestorsFriend has time on his hands

***********************************
To clarify to long time readers I posted for years under my first name Shawn. Also before that under my corporate name InvestorsFriend.

During a recent hiatus from the site (okay, I was banned for insulting / disparaging the host) someone else took over the name Shawn. So I now post as InvestorsFriend. My mission is to educate investors as best I can. I say only what I believe.

Posts these days by Shawn are not mine.

#178 IHCTD9 on 11.15.16 at 3:09 pm

#97 Andrew t on 11.15.16 at 1:51 am

Yeah, that was outstanding.
IHCTD9, I may not agree with your politics, but as connesseur of fine invective I tip my hat.
That was pro.
_______

You caught me in a poetic moment lol. But, now I have to turn it down a notch as I am starting to break my own rules of engagement.

#179 Invictus on 11.15.16 at 3:09 pm

@ #70 Situation Vancity

You bought in April I assume?

#180 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 3:15 pm

#162 Braj on 11.15.16 at 12:51 pm
#144 Smoking Man on 11.15.16 at 11:31 am
#123 Johnny Boy on 11.15.16 at 9:56 am

I’m naked and shaking in my boots. Bring it teacher

—-

Kind of ironic that he calls himself Johnny Boy. Acts like one too, even funnier that you are Smoking Man. Even with all the posts you have they still are 1000x more mature than a response like that. Reeks of something nasty. The type to stab you in the back the second you turn your back.
…..
You know, when your a world famous author with 25 books sold, obviously some envy will show its ugly face.

That the nature of the beast.

#181 InvestorsFriend on 11.15.16 at 3:32 pm

The Bank Oligopoly / Monopoly Myth

#153 Eks dee Sipal on 11.15.16 at 11:58 am said:

Commercial banks enjoy a FIRST DIBS monopoly on money created by the state central bank. Commercial banks enjoy profits they call ‘the spread’ for producing absolutely nothing.

******************************************

Yes, chartered banks, together with their customers create money every time a loan is made. There is nothing nefarious about it.

As far as being monopolies or even oligopolies, that is patently false.

Canada has six major banks and many smaller banks. I believe there are 30 schedule 1 banks:

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/wt-ow/Pages/wwr-er.aspx?sc=1&gc=1&ic=1#WWRLink111

There is well over 100 other lending and deposit taking institutions.

You would be hard pressed to name a sector which has more choices for the consumer. How many airlines? How many grocery store chains? How many car brands? How many coffee store brands?

When you want a mortgage there are even brokers to help you shop around. Same when you want a GIC.

The reason banks are highly profitable is NOT lack of competition. It’s more that most of find it inconvenient to switch banks, so they can fee us to death and we take it.

It’s also that they use extreme leverage and this is sort of institutionally sponsored. The regulators and the rating agencies are comfortable with their extreme leverage.

Even with the leverage and the CMHC and the deposit guarantee corporation competition really should drive profits down. To the extent it does not, blame the inconvenience of shopping around.

It you think it is so lucrative then by all means start your own bank. Or at least own bank shares. Meanwhile -shop around. (And stop visiting doomer conspiracy sites)

#182 Land Transfer Tax on 11.15.16 at 3:44 pm

#147 Russ on 11.15.16 at 11:43 am

Wrk.dover on 11.15.16 at 6:46 am
When I met my wife in 79 she was renting a 1755 house with some newer add on’s. With the thermostat at 60 it cost $1500/year for heat. Oil is up what, nine fold by now?
That Glace Bay house is a liability and nothing else.

I thought it would be impossible to miss my point. Once again, I am astonished. — Garth
========================

Let me help out Bro.

Listen up puppies. The point is, you can buy a decent house & property in another area for the same price that you are going to pay in a single (transfer) tax payment in GTA.

It doesn’t really matter but if you wish to belabor a point, I expect the difference in property taxes for the two areas would cover most of the heating bill, so try to keep up eh.

— – –

The land transfer tax is between 0.5 % and 1.5 % in the different parts of the province. That means at the average rate of 1%, you’re talking about under $800.

#183 InvestorsFriend on 11.15.16 at 3:44 pm

Money and Wealth Creation and Destruction in the Markets

#153 Eks dee Sipal on 11.15.16 at 11:58 am said:

I see also that Shawn aka InvestorsFriend has time on his hands or is being paid by the banking cartel to post nonsense once again, and to converse with himself. Very weird. He seems to think that money can just vanish into thin air when bond prices decrease, but not vice versa, oh no, that would be impossible, right?

****************************************
Correct, wealth disappears into thin air when bond or stock prices fall. But yes you are correct that it implies that wealth is also created from thin air when bond or stock prices rise. It’s not impossible. It is exactly how it works.

Consider if a stock selling for $1.00 with 100 million shares jumps to $2.00 on some good news or rumor and based on just 1 million shares traded hand that day (or just 100 shares traded for that matter).

The market capitalization of the wealth that investors see in their investment statements has doubled from a total of $100 million to $200 million just because some shares traded hands at a higher price. It’s not “money” as such but we call it money because stock market wealth is measured in money and can be converted to money (given a willing buyer of our stock).

Where did the extra $100 million come from? Well it came from thin air. It may represent an estimate of increased future earnings but that has not yet come to pass. The increased wealth came from thin air. And if the stock goes to zero, not a dime can escape. The entire $200 million is lost to thin air. Sure, some investors will sell at $1.50 on the way down but then the new owner loses his $1.50.

This is not something I merely think. This I know to be exactly how things work. And, there is nothing nefarious about this either.

#184 Context on 11.15.16 at 3:49 pm

Obama has arrived in Athens to pay his goodbye respects. There are riots throughout the city as was watching it live. The citizens are angry and have the riot squads dancing because furniture and stones are being thrown at them; not to mention the fire bombs being tossed at their feet. I have cancelled my vacation as there is nowhere to go anymore.

#185 TCContrarian on 11.15.16 at 3:54 pm

“The US dollar is surging, so ours is cringing. Solidly below 74 cents now. Gold’s also being whacked on the expectation of more inflation and higher rates.
But other commodities, like copper, are galloping higher on the Trump pledge to spend $500 billion building stuff.
Money is gushing into equities. The most in four months. Markets are spiking to new record highs.”
**********************************************

OK, now my post from last night doesn’t seem to have made the cut…why? Censorship for an alternate investment style???

I merely posted that many accomplished investors don’t consider gold as just another “commodity” – rather they think of it as “money”, in the truest sense. Or the anti-dollar (USD).
So, when I see/hear writers/commentators treating it like copper, iron, or zinc, etc. I wonder about the discrepancy.

TCC

#186 Noel on 11.15.16 at 4:02 pm

The odds were about 80% last week, and in the seventies the week before. Stick a fork in uncertainty. It’s done.
_________________________

Well I’m glad you’re not done making outlandish claims on the certainty of binary events. Never change.

#187 For those about to flop... on 11.15.16 at 4:08 pm

I was watching bbc last night and I was surprised at this story.

Australia has reached a one time deal with the U.S to send refugees that tried to illegally enter Australia to the U.S

I tried to find it on the bbc website but this was the only outlet I found running it.

The deal is obviously with the current administration but is maybe a signal to Trump about how they believe things should be handled.

At this politically sensitive time in the U.S , I hope everything works out for these people…

M42BC

http://mashable.com/2016/11/12/australia-sends-refugees-united-states/

#188 Ace Goodheart on 11.15.16 at 4:22 pm

Just reading the Star right now. Article complaining about how difficult it is to afford a house in Toronto for a first time buyer. I’m thinking yup it’s hard out there. I mean to do it right you have to have hundreds of thousands sitting around that you can use to purchase.

Read further down in the article. The complaint was that now to afford a $800,000 house a person has to come up with $55,000 Used to be you could purchase with $40,000.

So the moral of the story is you need an extra 15K.

I’m thinking “what?”

800K house and people are coming in with $55K? That is all they seriously have?

Things are worse than I thought. I pay cash for houses. I limit myself by what I can afford to buy (with cash). The prices seem a little steep right now but they’re still do-able.

I can’t believe people are doing this.

#189 Ronaldo on 11.15.16 at 4:29 pm

#163 Johnny Boy on 11.15.16 at 12:53 pm

”Why would anyone go variable? I’m locked in low pay min while investing the balance.”
—————————————————————–
If you were locked in low and had to break your contract a couple or so years before scheduled renewal date you would know the answer.

#190 traderJim on 11.15.16 at 4:37 pm

You thought the Access Hollywood tape was bad? New video surfaces showing Trump acting like a REAL dog:

https://twitter.com/JOE_co_uk/status/797189680458395649/video/1

#191 traderJim on 11.15.16 at 4:48 pm

#123 Johnny Boy

Admitting you are a stalker? Get some help son, seriously.

#192 jess on 11.15.16 at 5:25 pm

$5.3B to be spent rebuilding Fort McMurray, boosting GDP, Conference Board says
Insurance payouts to fund most of rebuilding, with more money from provincial, federal governments

Energy companies’ unpaid electric bills sent to Alberta farmers
Relationship fraying between Alberta farmers and energy companies

By Tracy Johnson, CBC News Posted: Nov 15, 2016 7:00 AM MT Last Updated: Nov 15, 2016 1:12 PM MT

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/farmers-insolvent-energy-company-power-bills-1.3850204

Bills adding up from resource companies not paying up

By Kim Trynacity, CBC News Posted: Aug 20, 2016 7:00 AM MT

….”many municipalities are suffering as energy companies do not pay their education property taxes. Earlier this year, Canadian Natural Resources appealed to municipalities where it operates, asking for a break in taxes as it tried to cut costs. The company said it was partially successful in its appeal. Notably, Canadian Natural Resources raised its dividend to shareholders earlier this month. “

#193 prairie person on 11.15.16 at 5:31 pm

The Teranet-National Bank Home Price Index is reported that homes across Canada rose by +0.3% during the month of October. That’s a touch slower than the +0.8% prior but from a year-over-year perspective, the index is reporting that homes have risen by +11.8% on average in Canada. Most of this is attributable to the white-hot locales of Toronto (+17.4% YoY) and Vancouver (+22.5% YoY) of course but neighboring cities of both are seeing a surge due to being priced out of the former. Hamilton (+15.0% YoY) and Victoria (+17.9%) in particular highlight this phenomenon. I’m not so sure the Province of Ontario’s pledge to double the land transfer tax rebate for first-time home buyers is going to have much impact.–Richardson’s daily newsletter

#194 jess on 11.15.16 at 5:57 pm

…”in the wake of the Panama Papers — which spotlighted how Panama’s banking and legal systems have been exploited for money laundering, sanctions evasion and global fraud …”

“Regulators should treat secrecy havens like the carriers of a dangerous disease.… They should be cut off from the global financial and economic system,” Stiglitz writes with co-author Mark Pieth, a professor of criminal law at the University of Basel in Switzerland and an expert on global money laundering and financial crime.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/panama-papers-offshore-secrecy-report-stiglitz-1.3850956

#195 LL on 11.15.16 at 7:01 pm

…•Estimates are the Fed will hike again twice in 2017….

Maybe we should wait to see if they will goes up in Dec first before saying they will go higher twice in 2017!

They have always a good reason why they do not rise interest rate.

Wait & see…

#196 The American on 11.15.16 at 7:32 pm

At #145: N1tro, on the contrary, California is the largest concentration of Republican base in the country. Orange county.

#197 The American on 11.15.16 at 7:50 pm

At #158 & 159: bdwy sktrn and Bytor the Snow Dog, respectively. Reading and math comprehension much? Yes, the majority did vote. You cannot count children, convicts, foreigners living on visa, etc. in the U.S. 336,000,000 residents. There are 147,000,000 registered voters in the U.S. A total of 121,961,943 votes were received on November 8th. Yep, that’s a majority of voters voting alright. Now YOU do that math. Clearly, you have no idea what you’re speaking.

Of those who voted, Hillary’s count on November 8th was 61,361,778. Trump’s was 60,600,165. On that evening she was already 761,613 votes ahead of Trump in the popular. Since then, as votes continue to be tallied, her increase in the popular vote continues to gain even more momentum.

#174 Long Branch Apprentice: Why would Hillary need or want a recount? She’s already won the popular vote. The EC is what she would need on her side in this instance, and a recount does not help her case.

Mark M., how’s that CAD still treating you? Oh, still in the shitter? Guess we all sometimes call it wrong, right? Good luck to you :-)