Trump it up

signage

In the course of a week – three days, actually – the stock market went up $1.4 trillion, and bonds shed a trillion. This is seismic. Epic. Almost Kardashian in its awesomeness. It makes fools of people sitting in cash waiting for a post-election stock dump. Even bigger fools of those thinking financial volatility would boost real estate.

Twas all the doing of one dude. The unforeseen election of Donald Trump created a set of conditions and expectations which now rock reality. Equity investors are making out like lovesick caribou. Mortgage rates are already inching higher. Bonds are in a historic global selloff. And it all gets real(er) in five weeks.

Here’s why.

Bond yields have been shooting higher (and prices tanking) since Tuesday night as  investors figure the start of the Trumpian years will mean an end to the growthless ones. After all, this is a pro-business leader supported by a pro-business Congress in a combo which hasn’t been seen for decades. Trump aims to bolster US jobs through protectionism, trade barriers and tariffs, plus spending a boatload on defence, bombing ISIS back to the 14th Century, shipping off a good chunk of the labour force (undocumented immigrants), spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure (including the Mexican wall) and slashing government regulation while gutting corporate taxes.

While this is likely to balloon the deficit, it’s all hugely inflationary.

Yes, kids, inflation. Ask your gramps. That’s when demand exceeds supply and unit costs rise. It creates something called a wage-price spiral, which is kinda the opposite of MBAs working as baristas. The number of new jobs exceeds the supply of applicants and incomes rise. People with more disposable income spend more, and because Wal-Mart is less full of crap from China (and more from Toledo), it creates a virtuous circle for the American economy. Prices, wages, profits and economic growth – all up. As inflation rekindles, so do interest rates.

Bonds hate inflation and love deflation. For the past eight years the American economy has recovered at the slowest pace ever following a recession. Washington has spent trillions trying to reverse that, flushing money through the real estate market and even giving people cash to buy cars. The Fed spent more money than God buying up its own bonds, while cutting the cost of money to the bone – all to encourage borrowing and spending. For all that investment, growth has limped ahead. Interest rates could be raised only once – by a quarter point – in ten whole years.

But apparently all it took to change things was one goofy billionaire who formulates policies in tweets, says he can negotiate any world leader out of their Stanfields and will make everything great again. Because he can. So shut up.

Here’s what we know. US stock markets have soared to record highs since his election. Bondholders have been liquidating madly. Money is pouring out of fixed income and into growth assets. The odds of a rate hike on December 14th have plumped to more than 80%. Gold and commodities have been tanking, the loonie along with them as the greenback jumps. Canadian bond yields are leaping along with those around the world. Five-year mortgage rates are already creeping higher, thanks to Wild Bill’s big changes last month (more to take effect at the end of November) as lenders pass through costs. Already TD has jacked its prime mortgage, affecting millions of customers.

The benchmark US 10-year note yield swelled almost four-tenths of a point this week – massive. A Fed senior official all but confirmed the American central bank is ready to resume its tightening, with unemployment back under 5% and core inflation approaching its target – even before the Trump train starts rolling.

Virtually none of this was foreseen on Tuesday. If it comes to pass as markets expect, then growth, wages and rates – all depressed for years – will be inflating. Bonds and houses – at historic bubble levels – will be creamed. Only the scope and timing remains to be seen.

As long as you’re not an undocumented Mexican Muslim woman environmentalist pacifist bureaucrat, you can almost like this guy.

157 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 11.11.16 at 5:43 pm

2018 ticket will be:

Prime Minister: Smoking man
Deputy Prime Minister: Gartho

#2 Trrrrrump on 11.11.16 at 5:48 pm

There was nothing unforeseen about trump winning….you were all watching the wrong news channel!

#3 BobC on 11.11.16 at 5:54 pm

Wait a minute…… I thought he was a disaster?

#4 prairiegopher on 11.11.16 at 6:01 pm

I love this guy! He is going to debunk this global warming myth and ramp up oil, which means good times ahead. Finally, we get to see what a real leader is like instead of a selfie snapping drama wonder.

#5 Celine on 11.11.16 at 6:04 pm

I love you Garth. I stand invested following your advises for many years. I lost a lot of money with my preferred ETF on my Quicken software but I did not sell them and they are recovering. I trusted you and did not sell my portfolio. My children (who don’t understand what is going on ) are thanking you. God bless you and your blog.

#6 Quebec is Great on 11.11.16 at 6:04 pm

Thank you for all you do Garth. From what I read, it sounds like USD/CAD might not go as high as I thought (USD inflation > weaker in mid/long term?)

Also sorry if this is off topic, but perhaps you will permit me to send this out to Smoking Man. The link below leads to a comment I made on reddit w/regard to media during this election period.
http://tinyurl.com/grfyszz

#7 Hope on 11.11.16 at 6:07 pm

Garth, do you still advise to keep same allocation of bonds in balanced portfolio as before Trump?

Yup. The weighting in government bonds is quite small, with preferreds making up half the fixed income component. Bonds have a huge utility in dampening volatility. Pay attention to the duration, however. — Garth

#8 Debtslavecreator on 11.11.16 at 6:09 pm

Start of the stagflation stage of this depression
If Fed raises in Dec and Trump nails Canada and China in a trade war look out – China owns a HUGE amount of USTs and there is strong evidence they have started liquidating and if Trump gets into a major trade war China will simply sell off the TBills as a way to fight back and force rates in Canada and all over the world
Add the bond market meltdown to the major mortgage rule changes just enacted and RE will turn into a quagmire and disaster for most of the sheeple
Many will begin to panic as their fake prosperity comes crashing down as mortgage rates begin a historic and relentless rise that will wipe out many
Cops will be overwhelmed with growing arson and other property damage as broke and dispossessed debtors lose their minds and blame everyone but themselves for their plight

#9 The Greater Cauliflower on 11.11.16 at 6:11 pm

Thank you for the economics lesson.
Should my asset allocation remain at 60/40
or should I lean more towards equities now, say 70/30

How can I seriously advise a cauliflower? — Garth

#10 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 6:11 pm

Unforseen? Huh. Hello…..

Whats a drunken ailen need to do to get respect around here.

#11 ShawnG in TO on 11.11.16 at 6:12 pm

snowflakes, Garth, don’t forget snowflakes dont like this guy either.

#12 joblo on 11.11.16 at 6:13 pm

Talk is cheap

#13 the other white meat (pork) on 11.11.16 at 6:14 pm

Volatility is the new norm Sir Garth. Whatever narrative you write this week will surely be subject to change in the near future. A pro business president isn’t going to permit wage inflation to occur, those were just populist propositions to get him elected, and it worked.

Trump is the uneducated white man’s version of the Obama hope/change thing. The hopes and changes might be different but he ran on the same platform.

“As long as you’re not an undocumented Mexican Muslim woman environmentalist pacifist bureaucrat, you can almost like this guy.”

Not to worry, he” with his father’s name and mother’s brain” has decided to lift the visa requirements for those folk, so we’ll not go without tasty food and bogus asylum claims.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/canada-mexico-visa-requirement-trump-1.3845957

#14 Guillaume on 11.11.16 at 6:15 pm

A guy like you Garth is the Canadian Trump we need for the future ! You are a real man with temperament, you stand by yourself not hiding behind any organisation, you know about real economy !

Suck it up Dude…

#15 rick clamp on 11.11.16 at 6:15 pm

trump will be good for the economy

#16 marg on 11.11.16 at 6:18 pm

The people voted a Republican House and Senate along with President Elect Trump. His past was thoroughly scrutinized..so nothing to see here folks…moving right along. 50% voter turnout and the pop vote is 50/50..give or take 100. if the other 50 % of the electorate had voted, chances are the count would be similar. Divided country..country not willing to support Democrat / Hilary Clinton as President. Let’s see how the Republicans manage. And if/how the Democrats restructure.

#17 Future Expatriate on 11.11.16 at 6:20 pm

Hold your horses, Trump is not President, yet.

Electoral college votes December 19th. Highly unlikely yes, but so was America electing a guy playing Hitler on TV and a real Hitler as veep in the first place.

#18 Jungle on 11.11.16 at 6:23 pm

Before election I liked Hilary-didn’t like trump.
Now I like trump after seeing the light and prospect of growth.

#19 Suede on 11.11.16 at 6:23 pm

For the record, I saw this coming.

Anyone sitting on the sidelines better buy some real or financial assets for the great boom.

Might even open a Corp in the USA if the tax rate drops to 15%.

#20 AnonKW on 11.11.16 at 6:31 pm

The people that have invested on the status quo for mellenia, aka HRC sponsors soon will lashout with such fury, american will simply refuse to vote for generations to come. Dance witk the devil and you will sit till the music stops.

#21 The Greater Cauliflower on 11.11.16 at 6:32 pm

RE: #9

Yes, thanks again, my query was answered in post#7 to Hope.

#22 ActingPresidential on 11.11.16 at 6:33 pm

US equities are already quite overpriced by many historical metrics. Speculators are just coming out of the woodwork now.

The rally looks remarkably premature to me, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s significant volatility going forward. With the orange sociopath at the helm, it’s no time to gamble.

This won’t change my boring, safe, diversified portfolio, of course, but my fun money isn’t running into the US market.

#23 Context on 11.11.16 at 6:36 pm

In other words, have a well balanced portfolio and if you don’t have the knowledge get yourself a fee based financial advisor quickly. I am blessed to have found a live streaming operation with high quality equipment. They are going to cities coast to coast in USA for the protests taking place day and night. Millions are on the march protesting against something, as this has become a revolution and needs to end or could turn nasty.

#24 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.11.16 at 6:39 pm

Gold and commodities have been tanking, the loonie along with them as the greenback jumps.

Anybody who invested in gold and the loonie over the last 4 years has lost a ton of money. But I guess that doesn’t matter cuz it’s fiat amirite?

Lol

#25 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.11.16 at 6:42 pm

I wonder what’s gonna happen to all my US real estate and USD rent

#26 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 6:42 pm

As long as you’re not an undocumented Mexican Muslim woman environmentalist pacifist bureaucrat, you can almost like this guy.

Told you he wasent that bad. He outplayed the media. Said rediculos things. Got free press. Now he’s president. He is going to reopen a 911 investigation, then drain the swamp.

#27 Garth Turner, Maybelline rep on 11.11.16 at 6:49 pm

Putting lipstick on a pig there, Garth…

Skin-deep analysis. — Garth

#28 Bottoms_Up on 11.11.16 at 6:58 pm

Great for profits and jobs, horrible for the environment and disasterous for long term survival of humanity.

#29 Pepito on 11.11.16 at 6:59 pm

So it’s all good now, is it? You make me laugh.

#30 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 7:04 pm

#14 Guillaume on 11.11.16 at 6:15 pm
A guy like you Garth is the Canadian Trump we need for the future ! You are a real man with temperament, you stand by yourself not hiding behind any organisation, you know about real economy !

Suck it up Dude…
…..

I agree but he’s got to do something with that girly voice. Get it a bit more raspy and masculine.
Then have a buck room drunk advising him.
100% next pm

I would do it myself. But I’m to well known in the red light district. Last count 70000 hotties will come forward.go on the social and destroy me.

So sadly I need to stay in the shadows,

#31 bsallergy on 11.11.16 at 7:06 pm

Run for the hills Trumpagedon is nigh!

#32 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 11.11.16 at 7:07 pm

let er buck
gitter dun
trumpski

#33 For those about to flop... on 11.11.16 at 7:09 pm

The Republicans made a mistake by letting Donald Trump go to the White House the other day.

They were able to give him a slow working injection.

He will be a full blown Democrat by the middle of January…

M42BC

#34 Sup G on 11.11.16 at 7:09 pm

Hey,

Occasional reader, first time commenter. I know you’re no fan of ZH, but they made this point the morning after the election. Onward fiscal stimulus like no one has seen before!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-09/what-trump-victory-really-means-market

#35 Andrew on 11.11.16 at 7:10 pm

Anybody overreacting to Trump’s win needs to give his/her head a shake. Probably the same kind of person who thought that electing JT would really transform Canada. Seems like JT is carrying on many of Harper’s hated policies.

#36 Teflon Don on 11.11.16 at 7:12 pm

And you people doubted Teflon Don…

The speed with which all of the major world leaders (including the axis of evil – Putin, Assad, Duterte) fell to their knee and into line behind the first coming of the God Emperor of Mankind and Holy Terra, just 2 days of not yet even having taken office, has not yet been witnessed in peace time.

Even Trudeau himself, facing an onslaught of deranged social justice warriors at a ceremony yesterday, expecting him to unleash an indignant tirade against the “racist orange Hitler”, vigorously defended his position and Trump by proxy.

But the Emperor forgives, we are indebted to him forever. The Emperor protects.

#37 DisgustMMP on 11.11.16 at 7:14 pm

Hahahaha

Love the last paragraph..

#38 common sense on 11.11.16 at 7:16 pm

Let’s see if oil can hit below $30 by Feb 2017..

#39 The real Kip on 11.11.16 at 7:17 pm

There will be no FED rate hike in December and no Bank of Canada hike for all of 2017. Give it a rest.

#40 Wicked as it seems on 11.11.16 at 7:19 pm

The passing of recreational marijuana in four states did not hurt the Canadian marijuana sector also….flying up like a banshee all week!

#41 bdwy sktrn on 11.11.16 at 7:20 pm

#166 traderJim on 11.11.16 at 3:35 pm
Just one of the videos of people being violently attacked for supporting Trump:

http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/11/10/woodside-student-attacked-after-supporting-trump-on-social-media/

Let’s see some actual video of Trump supporters acting violently, instead of hearsay and anonymous BS.

Personally, I’m surprised there are not videos of violent Trump people, as you know that there are lunatics on every side.

But looks like what’s fringe in the Trump movement is mainstream and accepted in the ‘progressive’ movement.
———————
it’s encouraged.

that video is nothing compared to today’s ‘stronger together/love trumps hate’ video of a mother seriously abusing her small child for picking trump. and then posting it online for ‘laughs’?

at least she will be prosecuted

#42 Arfmooocat on 11.11.16 at 7:21 pm

You should be a writer Garth, that’s cut and paste awesome

Hey SM, take note on how to write you stupid idiot.

#43 Paul on 11.11.16 at 7:27 pm

Compares to Selfie Clown that we have here.
Love this guy.

#44 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 7:32 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 11.11.16 at 5:43 pm
2018 ticket will be:

Prime Minister: Smoking man
Deputy Prime Minister: Gartho
….

Funny but man we all got to get involved some how. The lefty loons are going to destroy Canada.
Let’s start up an alt right here. Briebart looking to expand. We need to defeat Shlong Zumangas social warriors. We need to stop giving every kid a trophy for doing nothing. We need to put the focus back on the economy and put the distraction of gender identitity and climate change into the grabage bin.

It’s a big job in canada. Teachers have a total mind twist on our youth. I’m not eveñ sure it’s posable.

Their minds are gone…..with a built in hysteria model if you even try to showork em how retarded there programming is.

#45 Fiendish Thingy on 11.11.16 at 7:33 pm

My portfolio is happy, but I’m not.

Predictions:
There will be no net increase in US manufacturing jobs in the next 4 years.
The reason the marketing is swooning over Trump is not because investors think he’s going to make America great again, but because :
1) he will likely repeal Dodd – Frank, the slim firewall that protects us from another 2008 size GFC;
2) he will privatize Medicare and and Social Security, throwing trillions into the now unregulated casino for Wall St. to reap trillions in fees and commissions;
3) he will borrow trillions to pay for sweet govt. infrastructure (I.e. The Wall) and defense contracts.
4) he will cut taxes below the Bush levels, making many a Hedge fund manager ecstatic.

Oh well, at least he’ll accelerate the RE crash in Canada (and probably in the US)

#46 Geoff on 11.11.16 at 7:33 pm

This mysogionistic, sociopathic, racist, mean-spirited, volatile, nutjob has no policy and no experience governing. He came to be by jumping on the populist train and exploiting the ignorance of the simple-minded and ignorant. He panders to the lowest common denomitator. Never in history has a president been elected in a first world country with massive protests in many cities–even when Bush stole the election. You of all people should know not to put too much emphasis on politics when making investment decisions. Maybe you should join the Republican party.

#47 Geoff on 11.11.16 at 7:35 pm

RE #4 It is because of simple minded people like you that this sociopath got in power.

#48 mark on 11.11.16 at 7:41 pm

Even if he blew up the economy, just watching the Globe & Mail opinion pages have a cow over the past few days would have been worth it.

#49 Randy on 11.11.16 at 7:42 pm

Love the Obama-Hillary-Soros Job Creation Program. Where do I sign up to be a paid brain-dead zombie rioter ? They are America’s future with a branch operation in Canada.

#50 Sm non on 11.11.16 at 7:45 pm

Sm,

What was the name of your book?

#51 DIY Meow on 11.11.16 at 7:49 pm

I’ve just started building my own ETF portfolio and have been slowly buying bond etfs over the month. Of course I see the decline but I still need to build the income part of the portfolio. I’m buying both Bnd for my us portfolio and CEO which is laddered. I think I should keep building since no one can time the market. Anyone think this is a really bad idea or approach?

#52 DIY Meow on 11.11.16 at 7:50 pm

I mean CBO

#53 InvestorsFriend on 11.11.16 at 7:55 pm

China Holdings of U.S Treasuries

#8 Debtslavecreator on 11.11.16 at 6:09 pm warned:

Start of the stagflation stage of this depression
If Fed raises in Dec and Trump nails Canada and China in a trade war look out – China owns a HUGE amount of USTs and there is strong evidence they have started liquidating and if Trump gets into a major trade war China will simply sell off the TBills as a way to fight back and force rates in Canada and all over the world

****************************************
Well, here is the actual data:

China’s U.S. Treasury holdings are down about 7% in the past year.

Why? I have no idea. Maybe they bought some other U.S. assets like buildings, ports and companies.

What if they sell down. Could push down the value of the U.S. dollar, which the U.S. might prefer.

Could push up interest rates which the U.S. may not mind.

I see no reason to panic or even pay any attention to Chines holdings of U.S. treasuries.

#54 46 and 2 on 11.11.16 at 7:55 pm

Trump?

Who cares about Trump.

My guess is he is out via impeachment/resignation within 6 months.

Really…..how hard could it be?

The man leaks lies and deceit and that’s on a normal day.

Trump could well be the biggest protest vote of all time, bigger than Brexit.

#55 45north on 11.11.16 at 7:56 pm

Shared Services:
Liseanne Forand really didn’t know what to expect. On Aug. 4, 2011 she was making her way on foot to Phase III of the Gatineau office complex known as Place du Portage.

I shared a cab with her in Regina. She speaks French fluently and yet speaks English without a trace of an accent .

All of Shared Services’ core projects are behind schedule, substantially so, in the case of email transformation. Not only have promised savings not materialized, the agency is spending tens of millions of dollars more than forecast maintaining networks that should by now have been decommissioned.

“all core projects are behind schedule”. The failure is a failure of vision which is basically industrial age. This thinking can be seen in shipping: as ships get bigger there are gains in efficiency. So the Government applied this thinking to information technology (IT) – bigger is better. It also happens to coincide with a centralizing theme within the civil service. It thought that 1 central email system would be better than 43 separate ones. This supposed gain in efficiency was the basis of Shared Services.

A different approach would be to try to classify the different kinds of IT systems by purpose and to rank the different systems within a category. That is choose winners and losers. No such mechanism exists within the civil service and any attempt to do so would be met with resistance. Yet the survey and classification would have the benefit of a better understanding of the subject IT systems.

In a larger sense, Shared Services has completely dropped the ball. Instead of an inward reworking of IT systems, it should have first focused on the interaction of the Government with partners outside the government. At Agriculture Canada where I worked, one of the principal interactions is the individual scientists with their communities. For example soil scientists with other soil scientist in universities and with the public in general. In terms of these interactions, how does centralized computer servers help? It doesn’t. How does the Treasury Board standard: the common-look-and-feel help? It doesn’t.

The election of Donald Trump was essentially a report card sent by the American people to the government. The Canadian Government had better fix Shared Services before it too is handed its own report card.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/built-to-crash-the-ugly-sputtering-beginning-of-shared-services-and-how-politics-conspired-against-it

#56 Ace Goodheart on 11.11.16 at 8:00 pm

“Yes, kids, inflation. Ask your gramps. That’s when demand exceeds supply and unit costs rise.”

Yes and that’s when house prices……stay the same. But money’s worth less. What I’ve been saying for years…

#57 Chimingin on 11.11.16 at 8:01 pm

Re: #9 – The Greater Cauliflower

How can I seriously advise a cauliflower? – Garth

Good head on his shoulders, but may have taken leaf of his senses….it all stems from nerves.

#58 DON on 11.11.16 at 8:14 pm

#2 Trrrrrump on 11.11.16 at 5:48 pm

There was nothing unforeseen about trump winning….you were all watching the wrong news channel!
************
YUP!

And the protesting democrats should be protesting against Hillary sabotaging Bernie. Bernie would have beaten Trump as he appealed to both old, young and idealistic. But nooo… Hillary needed to be President.

As for Canadians that are caught up in this Hillary is queen syndrome – the internet is your friend. Like WTF she lost for a reason, stop! and find out why?

#59 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 8:14 pm

Garth I’m getting amazing reviews on my book. Would I lie. Seriously might get gig writing a sit com. Dream come true. Only took 25 sales.

Damn you for only allowing one commercial. But then. I see your point we would have every amway and vacuum cleaner sales men all over the comments section which would destroy it..

I’m not offended and happy you let one slip through.

Thank you.

#60 traderJim on 11.11.16 at 8:16 pm

#180 Metaxa

Here is the actual story from the link Metaxa posted about ‘violent’ Trump supporters:

“Edward Tomasso and Parker Rander-Riccardi, two students at Babson College, decided to drive around our beautiful campus with a Trump flag in a pick up truck,” she writes. “They laughed, screamed and sped around campus. Then, they parked in front of the house for students of African decent, and jeered at them, screaming Trump and Make America Great Again. When one student asked them to leave, they spit in her direction.”

Well, laughing and shouting “Make America Great Again” does seem pretty insane!

Now, turn on CNN and watch Hillary supporters destroy police cars, burn the flag, and call for the assassination of President Elect Trump.

#61 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 8:17 pm

50 Sm non on 11.11.16 at 7:45 pm
Sm,

What was the name of your book?
..

Email garth and ask him. My membership to the world of dogs worth more to me than a stupid book sale.

#62 Ace Goodheart on 11.11.16 at 8:18 pm

RE: #8 Debtslavecreator:

“Add the bond market meltdown to the major mortgage rule changes just enacted and RE will turn into a quagmire and disaster for most of the sheeple”

Depends where you are. Real estate wealth is created in two ways:

First way is how “The Donald” does it. Pump and dump. People have to believe they are getting something valuable (even though they aren’t). To get wealthy this way, you have to be the one selling the crap. Buyer gets screwed.

Second way is “the bet”. You are looking for a property that satisfies the following: In a bad location, that will become a good location due to a turn of events that isn’t certain, but that might happen. Add to this a building with good bones that looks outwardly crappy. Make your bet and wait.

There is no third way. Peeps think there is, but there is really not. The way people are doing it now, buying anything and everything because prices will go up forever, is dangerous and stupid. You are just riding a wave. Waves crash and disappear.

That said we have had an interesting event in Toronto, whereby houses (which will always be unaffordable) have increased in value to the point of the expected devaluation or inflation of the currency. This is because you can’t build any more of them. So they sit roughly at the level of future currency devaluation or inflation. Toronto is unique in that it contains enough high net worth individuals to actually run a housing market that is not affordable to the middle class. Most of Canada is not like that (I can’t actually think of any place that is). Toronto is our major international city. So it breaks the rules.

The rule usually is, once you get past the Goldilocks zone of middle class affordability then you have a real estate “correction”. In Toronto that is not guaranteed.

I wouldn’t want to be one of the people who just bought a house in Hamilton in a bidding war. Or a new build condo in Toronto somewhere. That is dangerous stuff to own and the prices are too high right now. But if you do happen to be lucky enough to be one of the lucky few who happen to own detached houses in Toronto south of HWY 401, I don’t believe you’ll be seeing a decline in your property value any time soon.

#63 YVR update on 11.11.16 at 8:18 pm

Vancouver is immune. We are more tied to Asia than the USA.

If push comes to shove, we will just have a referendum to join China. Canada tries to prevent this then they’re gonna have to face China’s power.

#64 The real Kip on 11.11.16 at 8:18 pm

Wow, you’re pretty thin skinned tonight to delete that last post but I guess you’ve been wrong so much of late it’s ridiculous. Keep spewing the bullshit Garth!

No delete. I will remind you that you are my guest here. Act like it. — Garth

#65 Arfmooocat on 11.11.16 at 8:22 pm

Garth you should become a columnist for New York Times or Yahoo Finance. That’s awesome!

Hope you don’t mind me cut and pasting that all over the world.

SM take note on how to write.

#66 JSS on 11.11.16 at 8:22 pm

If we’re entering inflationary times, can we expect the TSX and Dow Jones to increase as well? Dividends?

#67 Johnny D on 11.11.16 at 8:23 pm

The US is gonna usher in an era of low corporate taxes and stimulate job growth??

Perfect time for Canada to bring in a suppressing carbon tax and regulations to choke out business here.

Thanks Trudeau

#68 Rexx Rock on 11.11.16 at 8:27 pm

Inflationary meaning houses in Vancouver and Toronto real estate will keep going up.Anyway,Poloz will continue with lower interest rates and possibly negative rates which will lower our dollar for our exports.Canadians after 7 years of historic low rates realize and understand we will just follow Japan’s policy.Its not good but Canada has no other option.

#69 Arfmooocat on 11.11.16 at 8:28 pm

It’s either my laptop or web connection. My post doesn’t show up and I wait and wait but still no show so I figure I said something wrong and post it again without the derogatory SM comment and poof … suddenly there’s 63 posts instead of 47 and there’s my first post, including derogatory SM comment. lol

#70 Craig on 11.11.16 at 8:31 pm

Would it be a prudent move to switch my aggregate bond ETF to a short duration bond fund and buy up some more preferred ETF’s before they move up significantly?

#71 Self Directed on 11.11.16 at 8:34 pm

Don’t know why but Cuban Missile Crisis comes to mind after Trump’s victory…. let’s hope for good relations with Poot’n.

If you liked 13 Days, this clip is awesome…
https://youtu.be/BYRCTHj7k8Y

#72 Deplorable Dude on 11.11.16 at 8:36 pm

The ‘Uneducated White man’….

The guy who built your house, built the road you drive on, works down the coal mine to provide you power. Picks up your garbage from the kerbside.

This is the ‘Uneducated’ white man…

http://www.gunslot.com/files/gunslot/images/72442.jpg

#73 InvestorsFriend on 11.11.16 at 8:36 pm

Link to Chinese ownership of U.S. Treasuries

I neglected to put the link into my post above

http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

#74 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 8:45 pm

#69 Deplorable Dude on 11.11.16 at 8:36 pm
The ‘Uneducated White man’….

The guy who built your house, built the road you drive on, works down the coal mine to provide you power. Picks up your garbage from the kerbside.

This is the ‘Uneducated’ white man…
….

It’s not about white or black. Gay vs straight or even big red rock eaters.

There is an Nictonite that lost its way. Man from my tribe a billion light years away.

I am the only thing that can slow him down. The machine always wins. But for my short time on planet earth. I’ll do my best to slow it down.

I gave you trump..and that wasn’t easy.

#75 Arfmooocat on 11.11.16 at 8:47 pm

Oh and thanks for already raising corporate taxes in Alberta Rachel.

#76 bdwy sktrn on 11.11.16 at 8:48 pm

#28 Bottoms_Up on 11.11.16 at 6:58 pm
Great for profits and jobs, horrible for the environment and disasterous for long term survival of humanity.
————————–
it’s actually great for the long term survival of humanity.

the best thing that could ever happen.

i’ll trade no ww3 for a few parts per million more plant food in the air.
warmer is better for humanity anyway, lets hope it never gets much colder.

best of all we get to watch eco-twisted minds explode with every new hydrocarbon project, and there;s going to be a LOT coming. if Trump revs up the usa they will need half of the oilsands back at full production.
saudi was hildabeasts largest campaign donor so they will need the other half to replace saudi oil.

keystone anyone? it will be a go by january.

feel the combustion (burn)

of course doubling co2 output (it’s coming) will not have much of any effect on the planet, but the suzukis of the world will still be getting rich of guys like you.

#77 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 8:56 pm

#65 Arfmooocat on 11.11.16 at 8:22 pm
Garth you should become a columnist for New York Times or Yahoo Finance. That’s awesome!

Hope you don’t mind me cut and pasting that all over the world.

SM take note on how to write.
….

My writing is perfect. I don’t do it for pats on the head. I do it from the heart. Sucks to have no compition.

#78 Sean on 11.11.16 at 9:03 pm

Many of you obviously haven’t read between the lines. I’m sure Garth will be making this clearer in future posts (and has made it so in past posts already), but this isn’t a sustainable form of growth. It won’t benefit the people who were Trump’s biggest supporters, and will damage the Us and world economy in the long term.

#79 Chu Chu on 11.11.16 at 9:06 pm

Reagonomics is going to come back with vengeance. Short term gain. Major major long term pain. But the markets will always do well in the long run. The people of America? Are gonna suffer big time. Health care, education, social unrest the poor will get poorer the rich will get richer.

#80 Deplorable Dude on 11.11.16 at 9:07 pm

I’ve gone from a raving lefty to a raving righty during the course of this election.

I was reading this very good article the other day which basically expands on Garth’s points about Trump attempting to increase US made products.

Globalism favours countries with lower labour rates, and screws those with higher labour rates. The ‘middle class uneducated’ worker get caught in the crossfire.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/11/09/wall-street-main-street-and-global-economics-with-a-donald-trump-victory/

#81 AR on 11.11.16 at 9:07 pm

Does a passive balanced portfolio make it through every eventuality? Are any situations where a proactive stance is prudent? This seems like maybe one of those events… I mean I get that you don’t have a crystal ball but we all know uncertainty is bad for markets – and Trump is the epitome of uncertainty (often contradicting himself in the same sentence). Would it be smart to go to a little higher cash at this point?

http://www.investorsgroup.com/external/whitepapers/Whitepaper_TrumpE.pdf?utm_source=LinkedIn&utm_medium=Corp%20Announcements&utm_campaign=MPSM

#82 InvestorsFriend on 11.11.16 at 9:08 pm

Creating Wealth in Real Estate

Ace Goodheart on 11.11.16 at 8:18 pm submitted:

Real estate wealth is created in two ways:

First way is how “The Donald” does it. Pump and dump. People have to believe they are getting something valuable (even though they aren’t). To get wealthy this way, you have to be the one selling the crap. Buyer gets screwed.

Second way is “the bet”. You are looking for a property that satisfies the following: In a bad location, that will become a good location due to a turn of events that isn’t certain, but that might happen. Add to this a building with good bones that looks outwardly crappy. Make your bet and wait.

There is no third way. Peeps think there is, but there is really not. The way people are doing it now, buying anything and everything because prices will go up forever, is dangerous and stupid. You are just riding a wave. Waves crash and disappear.

****************************************
The first way (pump and dump) is not wealth creation. Just wealth transfer.

A bad location turned good is true wealth creation. The Donald benefited from this big time as New York became more desirable.

A third and viable way to create wealth in real estate is to create the real estate. Real Estate Development. You take raw land and apply materials and labour to improve the land in such a way that the end result is worth more than the cost of buying and improving the land. Or you take any existing building and improve it in a cost effective way. Simple sweat equity on your own property applies.

#83 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 9:09 pm

I’m sort of feeling guilty or out living god.

He saw it when I was in dipars.

The happy modern woman.. Thier everywhere.

https://youtu.be/5gQZUUHULco

RIP been thinking about you all day.

#84 Figmund Sreaud on 11.11.16 at 9:12 pm

The unforeseen election of Donald …
________________________

… er, this guy got it:

“Despite everything we are told day and night – that the political battle in America is between Democrats and Republicans – two thirds of the American people believe that the battle lines are drawn between mainstream America and its ruling Political Class….This is something the political class and mainstream media refuse to recognize much less acknowledge.”

Patrick Caddell: The real election surprise? The uprising of the American people
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/11/07/patrick-caddell-real-election-surprise-uprising-american-people.html

Anyway, …it’s enlightening to observe the collective despair about the world the Americans, Canadians, Europeans can’t understand anymore!

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#85 Ryan on 11.11.16 at 9:16 pm

trump is the black swan for Canadian real estate. He is the meme that change the world. Hopefully he doesn’t crash our economy with no survivors

#86 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 9:19 pm

Why could an alien not let this beauty live for ever.
Same respect I had for mercury.
Got a buz going. But still feel a big whole in my heart. See I’m turning human. Been on earth to long.
RIP man.. you where so under rated and that’s the way you like it.

https://youtu.be/YD6fvzGIBfQ

#87 Long-Time Lurker on 11.11.16 at 9:23 pm

This U.S. election issue is much greater than 99 percent of people realize. It comes down to whether the USA continues as a democratic republic.

The USA has been in a state of martial law since 9/11. The US government can arrest, detain and assassinate US citizens without due legal process. Anwar al Alaki was a US citizen. Obama can order assassination drone strikes in foreign countries without Congressional approval.

Trump has big flaws but he’s the Americans’ last chance to save their democracy from dictatorship.

If you want to know what’s really going on you need to read Dr. Paul Craig Roberts website. He was a former Assistant Secretary to the US Treasury Dept. under Reagan.

#88 Stephen Shaw on 11.11.16 at 9:25 pm

Some background – I was born in Africa, grew up in Canada, first as a subject of the British Crown then at age 18 a Canadian. Later I immigrated to America and am now a US citizen.
Condoning, indeed encouraging, large scale illegal behavior is abhorrent to any society which seeks to maintain itself. In my lower middle class, heavily-policed Los Angeles neighborhood, we have had murder, stash houses (many young men living under one roof) and people, with children, standing on street corners begging. This, in what might be the most difficult place in the world to go hungry or homeless – social services here are positively Scandinavian. And like them, our systems are beginning to strain.
The Trojan horse that is the undocumented worker issue masks a brutal underbelly of lawlessness, where people are cattle to be used as thugs see fit, whether it be the sex trade or cutting grass.
Obamian liberalism has left the nation and the world a teeming cauldron where the very rich and vicious feast. Hence Bernie, though from day one it was Hillary’s to lose. Trump? I hope his biggest asset is pragmatism.

#89 Russ on 11.11.16 at 9:27 pm

This is the first time known in history that a rich white man will move into public housing vacated by a black family.

It’s different all over again.

#90 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.11.16 at 9:28 pm

So what you’re saying basically, is that Trump is going to make America great again?

#91 conan on 11.11.16 at 9:32 pm

POTUS is much more then a full time job and I doubt Trump has worked more then 10 hours a week in his life.
I predict Trump will get impeached before his 4 years are up. We should run a pool. Winner gets free sprinkles.

#92 Change and Now on 11.11.16 at 9:33 pm

Garth, you said “here’s why”, but mentioned only the outcomes not the genesis of the disease called “liberal socialism’ . It has often been pointed out the liberals under Obama have had their foot on the brake for a very specific reason ‘ keeping people poor makes them more dependant on government and easier to manipulate’.

We see the immediate outcome of kicking those jackass liberals out of office with the sudden recovery after brexit and now an explosion of free enterprise excitement in the global markets. We saw the same when communism died in Russia and was beaten in accepting reality in China.

Now we have to beat back our pansy pm in Canada and all the sycophants who are peeking out of Obamas rectum and realizing the jig is up, the opium is finished, the scare tactics didn’t work and people are going to expect change. We already see how the cowed energy industry that no longer has to know tow to Trudy is recanting its servile posture. People are going to look south and want the same explosion in high paying jobs that are flooding back into that industry, all while petulant tulip trudella says “the world needs leadership on climate change”.

Hey Tru-Dummy , it’s over, we want the prosperity you wankers stole from us in the name of “globalization”. We want it now. I truly believe that if Tru-Farty Pants tries to go ahead with his industry and job killing policies there will be riots on this side of the border before long.

Liberals aren’t going to drive us into poverty so that we become so weak that we must accept their nonsense, go President Trump.

I can’t wait for the response from Trumps people when they hear our little cockerel crow about ‘ leadership’.

#93 sitestree.com on 11.11.16 at 9:35 pm

Kinda got a proof
Market timing does not work…
long term plan works better

#94 ulsterman on 11.11.16 at 9:53 pm

For the past eight years the American economy has recovered at the slowest pace ever following a recession.

There’s was some guy called Trump who’s been saying this for the past year, but all the clever people told him he was an no-nothing idiot and that the US economy was firing on all cylinders.

Funny what a couple of days can do. All the clever people have nearly turned themselves inside out to re-position themselves on the told-you-se side of the argument. Sigh.

#95 Jimmy Dix on 11.11.16 at 9:54 pm

Yesterday:
@#54 Smoking Man
“Rip Lenord Cohen ”
*******************************************
#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.11.16 at 9:47 am

He was alive? I couldnt tell from his “music”
***************************************
@SmokingMan
This one is playing now, very loud
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8AWFf7EAc4

@CowardElevatorFartz, I’m assuming there is little oxygen available for you, either way you stink

JimmyDix

#96 gdp on 11.11.16 at 10:04 pm

The India campaign strategist for the Arizona Republic Party shares insights on both the party and its most controversial candidate
http://www.mid-day.com/articles/india-campaign-strategist-for-arizona-republic-party-shares-insights-on-donald-trump/17349168
But, Iragavarapu says, off camera, Trump is neither a hater nor a racist. Sometime, it’s just an image that one has to project during election time in order to get more face-time with the masses. “When he was fighting the elections, the Indian PM Narendra Modi criticized the Congress for playing cricket with the Congress. But, when he became the PM, he went and touched Nawaz Sharif’s mother’s feet. Once you become PM, or President you have to do things differently.” Politics then, remains the same everywhere.

#97 Olive on 11.11.16 at 10:05 pm

Garth,
Please, please block “the real kip”…beyond annoying and rude !

#98 Cherry Picker on 11.11.16 at 10:21 pm

My only question is whether the second amendment people take care of Trump before or after Calexit.

#99 Rural Rick on 11.11.16 at 10:33 pm

Trump is the symptom he is not the problem

#100 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.11.16 at 10:33 pm

DELETED

#101 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 10:36 pm

I figured it out damn like weeks. Getting old. A bit slower.

When a writer find its voice.

https://youtu.be/Tj75Arhq5ho

#102 Oddly, Canadians Favor Trump Policies on 11.11.16 at 10:46 pm

I have to admit, this Blog and its Commentators, including me I think, are indeed a unique breed so what follows may not apply here – although I doubt that (think Occam’s Razor instead of trying to find some deeper meaning).

Recent Ipsos poll of Canadians about US Election (floored me and means 77% of Trump bashers/Hillary acolytes are probably lying thru their teeth, except you Garth, whom I believe):

“More than three-quarters of respondents (77 per cent) agreed they would consider supporting a political candidate who, “ran on a platform of stricter immigration controls, reviewing trade agreements like NAFTA to ensure they are in Canada’s best interest, shifting expenditures from international development in other countries to priorities in Canada, and getting tough on crime.”

“More than half of respondents (60 per cent) also agreed that Canada, as a nation, is too politically correct.”

“67 per cent acknowledged and “understand the underlying anger in America that eventually led to Donald Trump’s victory.”

…..And here comes the 2 Faced part of the poll results…..

“Less than a quarter (23 per cent) of poll respondents said a Trump-style candidate would have a shot at becoming Canada’s prime minister.”

…..As if. From the above poll results, Trump would get elected here in the blink of an eye and send Lord Selfie packing to the BC Interior to go pick magic mushrooms from his VW microbus home…..

http://globalnews.ca/news/3061088/canadians-disagree-with-donald-trumps-victory-but-agree-with-some-of-his-policy-ipsos-poll/

bsant

#103 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 10:48 pm

To bat shit crazy woman.

https://youtu.be/CUdhVQSbsvc

#104 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 10:52 pm

https://youtu.be/hnP72uUt_pU

Ask alice

#105 bdwy sktrn on 11.11.16 at 11:08 pm

from 6 days ago…

finally got a new listing in the hood – 4th time for this place since 09.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17550722/2016-GRAVELEY-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5L3B7

history
2009 – 875k (new reno here, no improvments since)
2011 – 1.06
2016 – 1.7 (spring ’16 , the ‘top’)

2016 – ask 1.7 sell ?????

#71 Self Directed on 11.05.16 at 7:45 pm

As for 2016 GRAVELEY, it looks like a lot of lipstick on an old pig. Built in 1910? Huge Red Flag. I bet they bought it with ZERO SUBJECTS and they found a bunch of things wrong with it after they moved in. Well, good luck finding another zero subject buyer today.

—————-
well i guess they got lucky finding one.

ask 1.699 sell 1.755 dom4
a new record high (and up since the ‘top’ in the spring)

WITH cdt(china dude tax) WITH new fed regs WITH new 1% city tax on empty houses WITH trump – still record high prices being pushed higher

#106 David McDonald on 11.11.16 at 11:09 pm

Interest rate sensitive stocks like Manulife have skyrocketed and preferred like CPD are starting to recover; all as Garth predicted. So when do bond prices hit bottom and how do I recognize a bottom?

#107 bdwy sktrn on 11.11.16 at 11:23 pm

sales picking up???

2211 GRANT STREET ask1,499 sell1,590,000dom5

2003 E 7TH AVENUE 1,329 1,360 dom4

2505 E GEORGIA STREET 1,038 1,000 dom4 ( a lot with a hazardous waste pile on it)

and with no new listings in the area, the supply of decent places just went from very limited , back to extremely limited. there are about 3 houses under 2m to choose from not on thoroughfares (of about 2000 in the area) 2 of them need to be torn down.

no crash here.

this is a complete list of all sales this week.

#108 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 11:24 pm

Pay back Is coming . BuildING 7

https://youtu.be/wrPvZg042RA

#109 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.11.16 at 11:28 pm

My guess is he is out via impeachment/resignation within 6 months

You know that the Republicans now control the Presidency, House, Senate and Supreme Court right?

Good luck with that impeachment

#110 bdwy sktrn on 11.11.16 at 11:32 pm

also 4 condo sales a bit further out (hasings st area)

the bears aren’t gonna like this either

1 at ask
3 over ask (up to 8% over ask)
DOM 4,7,8,13

#111 Smoking Man on 11.11.16 at 11:47 pm

Going to calaforija

Nope..boring celeniryy
https://youtu.be/N-aK6JnyFmk

#112 The real Kip on 11.11.16 at 11:47 pm

DELETED

#113 Change agent on 11.11.16 at 11:52 pm

#104 David M.

So let me get this straight.
Question : Is the CPD and issues like Manulife and Sunlife good places to invest right now? Anyone?

#114 Rich Young on 11.12.16 at 12:03 am

Stagflation: the most dangerous of all flations and what we are witnessing now. Cheers!

#115 Stanley on 11.12.16 at 1:16 am

Unforeseen election by people that cannot see.

#116 Steve French on 11.12.16 at 2:07 am

Alright, so unbelievably I paid $6 for Smoking Man’s book, “The Deplorables”.

171 pages…. this better be worth my while, Smokey….

– Steve O

#117 rknusa on 11.12.16 at 3:12 am

re: #29 Pepito on 11.11.16 at 6:59 pm
So it’s all good now, is it? You make me laugh.

yes really, I am getting less and less from both the posters and the blogger, crappy wishful predictions

think I am going to take a break form here

#118 Lady Jane on 11.12.16 at 4:10 am

Wow a real love fest for Trump in here tonight. Sounds like some would hide behind his toilet just to hear him fart. Might I suggest that the populous curb their enthusiasm and idol worship until he is actually inaugurated and he successfully navigates the perils of possible impeachment. (And yes, Walmark we do know that the Republicans control the house, senate and soon the Supreme Court but, that doesn’t preclude the Republicans from plotting to get rid of someone that they feel has hijacked their party and disrespected them, and could be a detriment to their own agendas. He will need to watch out for sabotage from his own party. Drain the swamp indeed) Markets can be irrational and now is the perfect time to see why. Trump has won the election and nary 3 days have gone by but, because the stock markets are gyrating some think he is some financial genius. Lots of wall waffling and hurdles ahead. They don’t call it irrational exuberance for nothing.

#119 Mark on 11.12.16 at 6:19 am

Thanks for being you, we’ll just have to wait and see where this leads us :)

#120 Yuus bin Haad on 11.12.16 at 6:54 am

Uh-oh — purple is the new red and blue.

#121 AJ on 11.12.16 at 7:00 am

Garth- #13. Mom shade. Can we pls- just for the love of humanity- stop being asshats to each other?

#122 Wrk.dover on 11.12.16 at 7:45 am

Um, if a financial adviser told me to um, vote Hillary, because a Trump win will be a financial disaster, then days later calls the Trump win an um, financial windfall, shouldn’t that person really be called an irony Adviser?

To me it seems all of the suits and big name Republicans are in this contradiction together.

Thinking with the trigger on the finger, or is that thinking with the finger on the trigger. Certainly was not much pre-election reflection on the Trump win good meme.

This blog never said Trump would tank the markets. In fact, the opposite – suggesting volatility would ensue, but it would be short-lived. In fact, it lasted six hours. Now this blog is telling you why markets have done what they’ve done, and detailed the likely consequences of a Republican-dominated Washington going forward. Try reading harder. — Garth

#123 Jungle on 11.12.16 at 7:52 am

Not good to invest right now. Both of those life insurance companies have run up huge in the last 6 months so you’ve missed a big part of that. I would expect them to continue but not at a rate of 30% since summer lows. Look else were like GWO is still undervalued. I will be selling my MFC and switching it to GWO.

IN regards to preferred shares, they often confusing and complex, and have underperformed quite badly to the broad indexes. A simple couch potato portfolio does not require them as indexes have largely outperformed them over the very long term.

#124 David McDonald on 11.12.16 at 8:26 am

#110 Change Agent

Garth has been saying preferred shares have been on sale for a long time. When he said that I bought CPD at around $15. CPD dropped to $11 but has since climbed back to $13 all the while generating dividends of near 5%. For me CPD has been a substitute for bonds.

People who buy preferred shares for a capital gain buy incorrectly. While the assets will benefit from the rising rate environment we are entering, the main advantages are a steady, juicy, quarterly dividend and the dividend tax credit which cuts taxes and increase the effective yield. — Garth

#125 conan on 11.12.16 at 8:46 am

RE: 104 and 110

Life insurance company stock values in particular will go crazy good as interest rates turn around and go up again.
All of their reserves and , all of their actuarial mumbo jumbo are dialed into interest rates.

Think of a mountain of money that slips in and out of “time and space.” It is very Dr. Who.

#126 William on 11.12.16 at 8:46 am

Mark my words. Trump ain’t a billionaire.

He refuses to release his tax returns because he’s lying about his real worth.

Take a moment to Google “psychopathic narcissist” and read the symptoms.

#127 Context on 11.12.16 at 9:40 am

#115 Lady Jane: May I point out that the first part of the election was won by Trump but the fat lady has yet to sing. The election will be finalized by the Constitution on December 19th by the Electoral College vote, as only the Electoral vote can chose the President and Vice President. This may not be over yet.

#128 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.12.16 at 9:41 am

This election PROVES Trump is a sexist and a racist.

First he beat a woman then he kicked a black family out of their house!

#129 rknusa on 11.12.16 at 9:48 am

I can’t wait to see and hear what smoking man’s next favorite video is

not

useless posts

#130 Doug in London on 11.12.16 at 10:06 am

Contrary to what a lot of “experts” who post comments here say, interest rates will eventually go up. Over the next year or more, it will be time to move some of your money out of equities and into bonds or bond funds as they go on sale.

#131 traderJim on 11.12.16 at 10:07 am

Very good article about why Trump won rural America (and no, it’s not because farmers are racist):

https://therivardreport.com/a-visit-to-trumps-america/

Viral video by lefty Jonathan Pie explaining angrily who is ‘to blame’ for Trump’s win, this guy gets it. Profane but 100% bang on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs&feature=youtu.be

Personally I am loving all the desperate talk by the losing side on petitions, protests, electoral college voting (lol), and impeachment (rotflmao).

Um, you geniuses in favour of impeachment do realize that if Trump is out, Mike Pence is in right?

You might want to check that guy’s credentials out. He’s a TRUE right wing conservative. Religious to the core apparently.

Trump is, I suspect, a pragmatic, closet libertarian.

Trump is already ‘walking back’ a lot of his extreme positions, as anyone who understands him expected.

He did write a book on negotiating you know, and one of his main themes was you start with an outrageous offer and then negotiate down from there.

Hard for some lifetime bureaucrats to understand concepts such as that, which are common in business, I know. But give it a shot.

#132 conan on 11.12.16 at 11:00 am

Re: #125 rknusa on 11.12.16 at 9:48 am

What say you all to raising a posse that will hunt out Smoking Man if he posts ” Nothing else matters” by Metallica one more time?

#133 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.12.16 at 11:03 am

127 Trader Jim- Excellent video and 100% bang on. I recommend that everyone watch it.

#134 conan on 11.12.16 at 11:11 am

#127 traderJim on 11.12.16 at 10:07 am
That’s the danger of Trump. He cut deals with the extreme religious right when the rest of the Republican Party deserted him.

I will tell you now that is what is going to go down. Impeachment processes are going to be started from this same group. Trump thinks they are partners. Instead, they are waiting to seize power so that they can re boot the nowhere train to end of days.

The ME has similar characters trying to do the same thing, but with a different dogma.

#135 Andrew t on 11.12.16 at 11:12 am

#84 Figmund Sreaud on 11.11.16 at 9:12 pm
The unforeseen election of Donald …
________________________

… er, this guy got it:

“Despite everything we are told day and night – that the political battle in America is between Democrats and Republicans – two thirds of the American people believe that the battle lines are drawn between mainstream America and its ruling Political Class….This is something the political class and mainstream media refuse to recognize much less acknowledge.”
—-
Here’s what always gets me: if an article like this (and the many others like it that have been published regularly straight across the board) acknowledge the groundswell of populism, doesn’t that by definition mean the mainstream media does acknowledge it?

Not that only that, but anything published on the net is alternative media, if we are using the old definitions of what “mainstream media” is.

Also, if two thirds are in an “uprising” why did only half bother to vote?

I get, I’m sure all of us get, about a dozen links a day on Facebook to 1000 word editorials like this one. Social media has its uses, but it is a horrible vehicle for getting quality political news and analysis.

That requires a lot more time and effort than people put into social media, which is largely based on getting little tidbits and distractions. You can’t really break down cultural shifts on a post-it note.

That’s something that sets this blog apart in my estimation. While there are explicit overall themes and a general point of view, the analysis is updated and modified daily based on the most current data.

#136 Millenial on 11.12.16 at 11:12 am

I actually think interest rates are gonna go up now. Never thought that once in the past 5 years. Thank you President Trump.

#137 The Technical Analyst on 11.12.16 at 11:15 am

“In the course of a week – three days, actually – the stock market went up $1.4 trillion, and bonds shed a trillion. This is seismic. Epic…. Bonds are in a historic global selloff. ”

You know, I post this exact same thing 4 days ago, when it hit the market tick-by-tick and get my posted deleted. Now it’s a hot topic?

Really…

If you post without ad hominem, tasteless jabs, you will be published. — Garth

#138 traderJim on 11.12.16 at 11:18 am

“Calexit” is the newest, most desperate cry of the losing side. Brought to you by the same people who vehemently opposed Brexit.

I actually think it’s a fantastic idea. Seriously. I think there’d be a lot fewer problems in the world if we had smaller states that accommodated like minded people.

I’m all for Quebec going their own way as well. And I love my Quebecoise friends. It’s really not the huge deal that everyone makes it out to be.

This utopian idea would have to include free trade and movement of people of course, but that’s no problem.

Yes, the technical aspects (entitlements, debt etc.) would be a nightmare, but it could be done.

I doubt it will happen in my lifetime, which is a shame. Instead we will have endless complaining and possibly violence from time to time, all in the name of Nationalism, one of the more dangerous ideas of all time.

#139 Scott in Gibsons on 11.12.16 at 11:19 am

Trump’s campaign platform was designed to win the election. Markets are making a mistake adjusting to it as though it will be enacted as is. Between now and Jan 20 a new or modified set of policies will be developed and communicated.

#140 traderJim on 11.12.16 at 11:28 am

Sorry to belabor the point, but consider the Supreme court appointments if Pence became President.

I don’t know much about the guy, but from the debate I watched, he is ultra religious, possibly evangelical.

He most definitely opposes abortion. I suspect he would oppose gay marriage etc.

He would appoint 1 , and perhaps 2 or even 3 Supreme Court justices that would be from the far right. he could affect American policy for the next 30 years.

Trump MIGHT appoint more libertarian justices, who are socially liberal and strong supporters of the Constitution.

I will closely watch his first SC nomination. I hope he does not disappoint (me) by going with a socially backwards, religious right judge. I don’t think he will. Probably middle of the road.

Be careful what you wish for snowflakes!

#141 Barb on 11.12.16 at 11:28 am

“… Trump would get elected here in the blink of an eye and send Lord Selfie packing to the BC Interior to go pick magic mushrooms from his VW microbus home…..”

————————————————-

Bite your tongue.
Don’t even SUGGEST that T2 come here.

#142 Victory on 11.12.16 at 11:39 am

I just feel the need to respond to the defenders of Trump here. I wish him luck for the sake of the American people, but I doubt his success at every level.

If we take Trump at his word, he is at odds with much of his own party on his stated goals. Their intentions are to preserve free trade and maintain a permanent underclass of illegals for cheap labour, for example. They don’t give a * about the working class Americans, except to get their vote every four years. Term limits!? Never gonna happen. Draining the swamp? try telling that to the swamp dwellers.

Second, he seems to have given little thought to the organizational implications of his proposals. For example, say you tear up NAFTA tomorrow. What’s going to happen at all of the borders to all of the imports? And how is that going to affect all of the American exports at foreign borders? I’m not even going to get into the logistics of expelling ten million illegals.

So he can’t do it without his party, but his party is ideologically opposed to him. And he made a lot of enemies in the campaign.

Third, his intellectual base is thin at best. If he appoints Sarah-Palin-esque advisors (Gingrinch, Guiliani, etc). they are entirely likely to go for splash over substance in policy. Meaning that damaging strategies will be implemented where possible, and nothing else otherwise.

Canada? We’re an afterthought at best. fill up the root cellar Bessie, it’s gonna be an unpredictable four years.

#143 Guillaume on 11.12.16 at 12:26 pm

#115 Lady Jane
Probably you should stop watching CBC …..
I have never seen so much dishonest and bias statement on any other media (even worst than Clinton News Network). Lying to yourself won’t help you to understand the real world…Trump has been elected, you have to respect the choice of the people and accept it. For us it is just another Us President, so maybe a few things will change but not so much, so it is business as usual now. I would not say the same from what I see happening in Canada with debt growing at every level (household, Province, Fed) and our glorious Politicians/Bureaucrats mostly focusing on dealing with the average societal BS (Racism, gender issues,stupid bureaucratic approach of real environmental issues….)

#144 Smoking Man on 11.12.16 at 12:47 pm

Trader Jim

Sign me up as a fan….great posts.

#145 Harbour on 11.12.16 at 12:49 pm

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/with-trump-win-comes-expectations-for-rates-to-rise-bigly-2016-11-11

#146 Marie on 11.12.16 at 12:53 pm

The myth that the US economy does better with a Republican government continues to persist…it actually does a lot better when a Democratic government is in power and there is data to show that. http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2012/10/10/want-a-better-economy-history-says-vote-democrat/#3403752167a1

#147 BS on 11.12.16 at 1:22 pm

#127 traderJim on 11.12.16 at 10:07 am

Trump is already ‘walking back’ a lot of his extreme positions, as anyone who understands him expected.

He did write a book on negotiating you know, and one of his main themes was you start with an outrageous offer and then negotiate down from there.

So few people understand negotiation. Trump gets it. Obama is a nice guy but he doesn’t get it. That is why virtually nothing got done in 8 years.

As an example the Liberal left is already praising Trump because he is now talking about keeping some important parts of Obama Care. Had this been Trump’s position from the start the Liberal left would be lighting their hair on fire about any change to Obama Care.

I think we will see the same thing with NAFTA. Trump will get some easy concessions that cost the US nothing just for keeping it in place.

Negotiation 101. Make your opponent think they won even when they don’t.

#148 Henry Morgan on 11.12.16 at 2:06 pm

Seems like the Snowflakes and their riots will give Trump no choice but to prosecute Clintons.

#149 paulo on 11.12.16 at 2:55 pm

Hey Smokie: no ankle biter today lol

#150 paulo on 11.12.16 at 3:16 pm

#115 lady jane

good post, and i also think the possible “in fighting” within the party could be a major distraction moving forward.
impeachment… not likely he has the check book to lawyer up for that. resignation maybe, we shall have to see how he transitions from being a Chief Executive in the business world, to being commander and chief in the political world.

#151 I like cookies on 11.12.16 at 3:37 pm

At my tax bracket, I’m taxed higher on dividends than capital gains (http://www.taxtips.ca/taxrates/bc.htm), so am I correct in thinking I should hold off on buying preferreds until I’m in a lower tax bracket?

#152 bill on 11.12.16 at 3:57 pm

didnt the last time these pro business republicans were in power basically sewer the economy?
but they learned their lesson eh??

#153 45north on 11.12.16 at 4:25 pm

Free trade and immigration were once axiomatic to global growth. Between 1950 and 2007, global trade expanded at an incredible 6.2 per cent per year, spurring tremendous growth in incomes and leading to a worldwide reduction in poverty. More than goods moved about freely during this golden era; people did as well. Together the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand welcomed nearly one million immigrants annually over this 57-year period. This free flow of human capital across borders was similarly crucial to rising productivity and incomes worldwide. This week’s election puts future growth in trade and immigration in peril.

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/washington/be-warned-the-donald-trump-effect-will-touch-us-all/

“Between 1950 and 2007, global trade expanded at 6.2 per cent per year.

More than goods moved about freely during this golden era; people did as well. ”

It has been my privilege to have lived during this golden era but it is drawing to a close.

#154 Skip Breakfast on 11.12.16 at 5:18 pm

And you might like Trump’s policies even if you are a Muslim immigrant woman environmentalist:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhXVf6gYqWM

#155 Joe2.0 on 11.12.16 at 5:32 pm

Undocumented aka illegal.
Deal with it.
Read the Trump Pence site to get the facts.
It actually makes sense.
Nothing against foreign immigration just illegal immigration.
Just like Canada.

#156 palebird on 11.12.16 at 11:49 pm

#116 Lady Jane …and just exactly what are you going to impeach Trump for?? Unbelievable rhetoric coming from the lefties liberal losers club. These people are incredibly dumb and they are spouting everywhere. Don’t worry. Trudeau won’t make a second term. He will be out on his butt soon and you can go hold his hand.

#157 soost on 11.13.16 at 3:06 pm

Over at betterdwelling (https://betterdwelling.com/what-president-trump-means-for-canadian-real-estate/) they are saying that the trump presidency will be inflationary and push inflationary-linked-real-estate higher.

It would seem to me that Garth agrees that it will be inflationary but that the response to this (> interest rates) will “cream” real estate.

Is that right ? Am I missing something? In your opinion which scenario is more likely?