Just silly

banana-head

Stocks down, bonds up. It’s a classic pattern developing now just days before the US election. The S&P 500 has lost ground for seven sessions running – something which happened after Lehman Brothers collapsed. The market’s in the longest funk in five years, and meanwhile the VIX has increased by 48% in a week (that’s the so-called ‘fear index’).

While equities fret, bonds plump. Prices have been rising as money worms its way into perceived safe havens in advance of November 8th. (On stock markets, trading is up 25% over the recent average.) In 20 of the past 22 presidential election contests, the S&P 500 has advanced in the five days before the vote – climbing an average of about 2% in that period going back to 1928. This time – with three days left before the big event – the index is down 1.3%. Not a big move, but a big deal.

Is this signalling Wall Street’s belief the Trumpster will prevail?

Nah, not really. Most people still believe Clinton will win. It’s more about Brexit than anything else. Just four months ago traders were caught massively offside when UK voters did the unexpected, the illogical and the irrational thing. There’s a strong desire not to be ambushed this time, which accounts for much of the movement we’re seeing.

There’s more to worry about, too. After the Fed’s statement on Wednesday (no rate hike, but hawkish lingo), the market is giving 80% odds for a rate hike in the first week of December, up from 67% before the announcement. Higher rates have been on the agenda, like, forever – but the moment of truth seems to be approaching, Trump or no Trump. (By the way, he’s shellacked Janet Yellen for keeping rates too low, too long.)

Meanwhile Friday morning the latest labour stats come out, a key indicator of US economic health. If they’re decent, the Fed goes for sure. If they suck, it feeds Trump. As we all know, the Clinton momentum is now negative. A week ago she had at 82% chance of being prez, and by Wednesday night that had sunk to 69%. However about double the usual number of Americans voted in advance polls, which is thought to favour the Democrats. Clinton leads narrowly in polls of independents, while Trump is poised to finish strongly among those who decide their minds at the last minute.

In short, nobody knows the outcome. Just like Brexit. Or the Scottish referendum. But there’s certainly more caution in the air than just days ago.

Does this mean you should panic and turn your RRSP into cash?

That would be just silly.

Trump as POTUS would be a surprise. It would prove democracy’s big flaw – in which an undeserving, inexperienced and unproven person wins office because most people hate the other candidate’s guts more than they fear the flake. But President Trump would not change the reason markets have strength. Corporate profits would not plunge. Hiring wouldn’t cease. The GDP would not start contracting, the currency collapse, house and car sales dry up or anything much happen to taxes, health care or government spending. In Washington Trump would be an outlier from Congress, where the rules are actually written.

Selling in advance of the vote, incurring trade costs or triggering capital gains, is as dumb as selling after the vote if markets do a Brexit-like swoon. If you have a balanced portfolio (40% safe stuff and 60% growth) which is globally diversified ( about 17% Canada, 21% US, 18% international, 4% alternative) with a broad range of asset classes (government, corporate and high-yield bonds, preferreds, REITs and equity ETFs) then just ignore the noise. Your accounts will dip less than the stock market and recover faster, thanks to the fact you have assets that rise in value (fixed income) while others (stocks) shed it.

Of course, most DIY investors will ignore this and do the headless chicken thing. It’s why they almost always fail. Over and again history’s proved that investors with good, diversified assets and reasonable balance cruise through crises, while the market-timers end up being lunch. There’s little doubt this will repeat in the next three trading days. Pray for them. They know not what they do.

By the way, I asked my smartypants, know-it-all, suspender-snapping, Bay Street, high-priced, omniscient professional portfolio manager partners Doug Rowat and Ryan Lewenza for their advice on the potential Trumpinator effect last night during our weekly call with clients. Here’s what they had to say.

$     $     $

Fresh numbers out of the Van real estate board. As expected, ugly, showing the collapse in sales continues and confirming that this market peaked back in March (as we have been telling you since June). Sales of detached houses last month were down an awesome 54%.

van-sales

Also worth noting: the realtors messed up September prices, apparently, publishing the wrong Frankenumber. It could be off as much as 5%, or $78,000. Oh well…

And here’s the latest from the crazed beaver of a housing analyst Ross Kay, who’s really enjoying watching the market disintegrate (because he predicted this). Whether the realtors admit it or not, and despite whatever statistical diddling is taking place, he claims the average price has fallen 19.7% since the implementation of the Chinese Dudes tax at the end of July, and 21.7% since peaking in March.

Well, whatever it is, there’s more coming.

184 comments ↓

#1 Paul on 11.02.16 at 6:26 pm

Glad it’s different here, or we could be in for a lot of pain! NNaa couldn’t happen here!

Check out the property history, it’s the same price now as it sold for in 1996.

http://www.domain.com.au/property-profile/6-gething-court-nickol-wa-6714

Property Report for 6 Gething Court, Nickol WA 6714
http://www.domain.com.au View property information for 6 Gething Court, Nickol WA 6714 which contains sold & rental history, nearby schools and median prices for Nickol, WA, 6714

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.02.16 at 6:32 pm

OAK BAY, VICTORIA, SAANICH EAST LEAD THE AREA’S SALES SLOWDOWN

Year-over-year in October, sales of detached houses were down significantly in three of Greater Victoria’s most expensive areas: – 25% in Oak Bay, – 16% in Victoria and – 18% in Saanich East.

Overall, sales of detached houses were down 1% compared to October 2015.

Perhaps some of October’s sales were due to Greater fools rushing in to beat the rule changes. Every major housing correction/crash needs peak buyers. The more the better.

In the region’s outlying other areas, sales tanked 18% year-over-year and a dramatic 41% month-over-month.

Sales of detached houses have tanked 48% across Greater Victoria since April and the market correction warning sign has been flashing red since that time.

First sales fall, then prices.

This is how it went down in cities all over the world that have had extremely overvalued (bubbly) housing markets. Thousands of cities in many countries – Japan, Ireland, Spain, Greece, the US, etc. – had Victoria-style housing bubbles (or smaller) and experienced major price corrections/crashes.

Nobody predicted anything but higher prices in those cities, but the inevitable outcome of a housing bubble – a major correction/crash – was never in doubt by Mr. Market and quite obvious to those who have gone back and studied these markets.

Bubbles never end happy.

#3 The Nature Boy on 11.02.16 at 6:39 pm

“Trump as POTUS would be a surprise. It would prove democracy’s big flaw – in which an undeserving, inexperienced and unproven person wins office because most people hate the other candidate’s guts more than they fear the flake.”

Because Hillary – which is a proven cheater, liar and deceives, defrauds and whatever else we do not know yet (or will never know) is better???????????

Hillary is synonymous for democracy, Garth?

Keep to your financial side please.

#4 Doug t on 11.02.16 at 6:45 pm

Please Trump win for gawds sake. I hate him BUT she is sooo much worse. Voting for Hitlery votes for continued wars and meddling in other countries. Voting Hitlery votes for more civilians deaths around the globe. Voting for Hitlery votes for more BIG government, more militarization, more police state control, more Fed Reserve BS money printing, more of the same crap that has been going wrong in Washington for the last 50 years.
RATM

#5 Paul on 11.02.16 at 6:46 pm

Nah, not really. Most people still believe crooked Clinton will lose.

#6 The real Kip on 11.02.16 at 6:46 pm

Poor Janet (girl who cried wolf) Yellen, lives in a nation with $20-trillion in debt and you think she’s going to raise rates? Go ahead Janet, raise them, this should be good.

#7 Realtors and mortgage brokers out of work on 11.02.16 at 6:50 pm

Leans and financially painful times await. Say goodbye to your easy lifestyles of easy work for big pay is over. Many of you will never work in the industry again.

#8 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.02.16 at 6:51 pm

Hillary Camp In “Full Panic Mode” As Early Black Voter Turnout Plunges In Key Swing States

^ Fact.

…Which means that the polls are WAY off.

Trump will win in a LANDSLIDE.

#9 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.02.16 at 6:53 pm

91% Of All Paddy Power Bets In Past Two Days Have Been For Trump

#10 MSM-Free Zone on 11.02.16 at 6:57 pm

“…..It would prove democracy’s big flaw – in which an undeserving, inexperienced and unproven person wins office because most people hate the other candidate’s guts more than they fear the flake……..”
_________________________

Yeah, that’s a pretty good summary of democracy everywhere for the last couple of decades.

I would expect even more polarized voter discontent in the future, given the continuing rise of social media as a Weapon of Mass Deception in spreading fabricated, misleading, and fear-mongering vitriol to the clueless and uninformed.

#11 Debtslavecreator on 11.02.16 at 6:58 pm

Two disastrous choices
No matter what 2018-2020 will be very tough
RE in Canuckistan is going to be a rough place unless you happen to own the few pockets attracting serious foreign money
Trillions in Euro/yen/and Chinese yuan deposits and government bond (most developed world govts are broke) worried and looking for a new home over the next few years
Good quality stocks and investment grade NON-GOV’T bonds will have their 10-20% drops but even when the once a decade 50-60% drop happens consider it a gift
Savers, pensioners and govt bond holders are paddling down SCreek and they will not have paddles over the next 5 years

#12 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.02.16 at 7:01 pm

It would prove democracy’s big flaw – in which an undeserving, inexperienced and unproven person wins office because most people hate the other candidate’s guts more than they fear the flake

Are we talking about T2 and Harper?

#13 JRH on 11.02.16 at 7:01 pm

Bring it on !!

#14 Oh Garth! on 11.02.16 at 7:02 pm

“Trump as POTUS would be a surprise. It would prove democracy’s big flaw…”

Surely you wrote that just to get a rise out of your commenters… and not out of spite because your chosen candidate might lose.

#15 Marcus on 11.02.16 at 7:03 pm

Trump wins …. and here is why. This man has not shown his face publicly for 25 years. He toppled 9 govts. around the world and is the creator of Delta Force. He is the guy that Tom Clancy copied for his books. Listen to what he is saying very closely. Watch this entire interview. He lays it out very very succinctly. America is about to change in a big big way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zic64WhR14k

#16 prairiegopher on 11.02.16 at 7:09 pm

With the latest news from Bronco Billy saying we are going to spend until we get cut off does that not make us very nervous? I guess the fact we will all be high will keep us from noticing, baby T can only hope!

#17 Mark M. on 11.02.16 at 7:09 pm

Funny how the Fed, who for months has claimed the case for a rate hike is strengthening and that every meeting is “live”, didn’t hike today.

Especially hard to understand given their insistence that they are not political.

As for the “hawkish lingo” Garth references, I didn’t see any “lingo” that was any different from the last meeting.

What was different this time was the number of hawks shrank by one. Remember in September all the reports of the tide turning because THREE members dissented, this time, there were TWO.

Garth calls that hawkish, but leaves himself an out, the jobs report. So much riding on every jobs report it seems, even though it’s a lagging indicator and has been trending down year over year.

Yup, just a little more data required. Pathetic indeed.

#18 Oh Garth! on 11.02.16 at 7:10 pm

Btw, it looks like they’ve been indoctrinating Trump on the Iran/Israel issue as of late, so that’s worrisome, but still not as bad as Hil-dawg’s open pledge to invade Iran if Israel gets into any sort of dispute with them. It’s always “Iran” with these people. They just can’t wait for the next war.

#19 down and out on 11.02.16 at 7:19 pm

I did some research on the statement early voting favors the incumbent and the stats backup the facts but I have a hunch so many are dissatisfied with the democrats that many Trump supporters voted early in a effort to give the government a message as summarized by Hillary supporter and Flint home boy Mike Moore which is a big F U to the democrats after this historical election campaign,NOV 8 will be interesting .

#20 conan on 11.02.16 at 7:20 pm

Mr Market was looking for a clear Clinton victory. So, a paper thin victory for Clinton is not going to cut it.

Trump is pot committed and he will make a stink if the results are close. This is going to happen.

Poker 101 folks…….

#21 Curious on 11.02.16 at 7:23 pm

Trump talk is boring.

#22 Ken M on 11.02.16 at 7:28 pm

Are fibreglass shingles better than asphalt?

#23 toronto1 on 11.02.16 at 7:33 pm

The polls are tightening up now, although I think that they were always pretty close- within 5% of each other.

The stock market is not going to crash because the fundamentals are strong- there is a lot of institutional money that is chasing yield and there is simply no where else for that money to go but in the money markets. Bonds are near time lows or almost negative. Corporations have a lot of money that has yet to be redeployed, so the markets it is……….

RE #165 I am the mighty Oz

The change will only happen in the new year, right now the stress test of mortgages is only for those with less then 20% as of Nov 30, everyone- including move up buyers will need to pass that test, that where it gets interesting. In a few months time, inventory will be rising as with the loss of 20% of buyers, its simple math- now the middle of the market- 500-750k will have a hard time selling and moving up, and thats where the fun starts.

The forced sales happen setting a lower benchmark, people freak out and the slide starts.

honestly, look at 2006 prices, then at 2010-11-12 prices, all relatively stable, easy for the median to afford. then the price and ease of money blew the market off the charts. with the existing amount of speculators and over supply- how many qualified buyers are even left to purchase? without the new rules.

Apparently according to everyone in the RE biz, we entered a totally new paradigm from 2012 on words, prices never to be seen again, SFH going to 1 million then 2 million on to infinity. Look at markets from a technical analysis- to maintain these crazy prices, we need to be adding X amount of new legible home owners every year to infinity so that people can continue to move up and up and up.

only problem is that math always catches up and the economic fundamentals dont support that, neither does HAM, rich (insert ethnic group here). Give it 6-9-12 months before the cracks start showing then watch out.

The herd is great on the way up, better not be anywhere near those exits when they turn and run to get out, might get trampled…….

#24 November light on 11.02.16 at 7:51 pm

Hillary as a flake for democracy. Her experience is in political corruption, globalized through the Clinton Foundation.

#25 Bob on 11.02.16 at 7:54 pm

Van stats already out…

http://www.rebgv.org/news-statistics/home-sale-and-listing-activity-dip-below-historical-averages-october

#26 Argon18 on 11.02.16 at 7:55 pm

Garth,
19% average decline, it is accross the board or for specific type of housing (say, condos or detached)? If it is across the board, then you know it does not mean prices fell 19%, it could simply mean expensive houses are not selling while everything else still increases in price. Expensive houses not selling could lead to something eventually, but it is not a given just yet.

#27 Context on 11.02.16 at 7:56 pm

#3 Nature Boy: Can you imagine in your wildest dream of having Hillary as your future Mother In Law? You might grow to like her.

#28 S.Bby on 11.02.16 at 7:57 pm

… he claims the average price has fallen 19.7% since the implementation of the Chinese Dudes tax at the end of July, and 21.7% since peaking in March.
============================
That 20% decline matches my area South Burnaby BC almost perfectly. I am expecting another minimum 20% drop in 2017. Prices are declining by $1,000 a day.

#29 Bram on 11.02.16 at 7:58 pm

I completely agree.
Hold on to your holdings, and stay the course.
Selling equities is often a bad idea.

In my entire life, I have closed positions only twice.

The first time was when a younger me decided to buy a classic Camaro.
That turned out to be an expensive exercise, but man, driving that thing was a whole lot of fun. Hmmm… that V8 burble…

The second time when I needed a downpayment for a house.
I sold all my winners, and kept the stocks that were in the red.

Now I will just hold, and get paid while I wait.
Market crashes don’t faze me, I am patient.

Bram

#30 Harbour on 11.02.16 at 8:01 pm

Oil is in the tank

Was $52 and all the financial columns were on the recovery pump… now it’s back to $45

#31 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 11.02.16 at 8:02 pm

thanks guys for the update on current things

#32 45north on 11.02.16 at 8:02 pm

Ross Kay: Whether the realtors admit it or not, he claims the average price has fallen 19.7%

which will be manifest next year, say May 2017. Vancouver is going to wake up to a 20% loss.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/manifest

In the 1990’s, Toronto real estate lost 10% of its value. Ross Kay points out that it recovered because the good people of Toronto kept paying down their mortgages and after 10 years prices rose again. In contrast, a loss of 20% in Vancouver will not be made up in 10 years. A Donald Trump moment. Let me explain.

Up until now, in my lifetime, the expectations of the middle class have been met. In Canada and the US. By and large. Since the end of the Second World War, wages have gone up, the standard of living has improved. In the last few years the standard of living has gone down. In the US, I see this in the increase in the cost of health care. An ordinary family of four was paying $1000 a month for health care.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordable_Health_Care_for_America_Act
Next year the same family must pay $1600 for the same level of insurance. Their bill will go from $1000 a month to $1600 a month! This is confirmation that their standard of living is going down. At this point, they will vote for Donald Trump out of frustration. I’m not saying necessarily, but when the other candidate is not seen as upright then the temptation is right there.

I see something of this in Ontario with the rapid increase in the cost of electricity.

In BC, I see something of the same in the sudden, inexplicable lost of 20% in real estate. It’s not really inexplicable but it’s completely outside the expectations of most people.

#33 GrannyAnnie on 11.02.16 at 8:09 pm

This appeared in my mailbox on October 10 titled “Ann vs. Trump” from an unknown person. It is a game designed to get Clinton supporters in swing states to go out and vote. Sorry I didn’t open it to investigate-you have to sign in through Facebook, and I don’t have a Facebook account. Maybe one of the blog dogs would care to see how far the Clinton supporters are willing to go for their candidate. The site is
Swingvoter.com

#34 Investx on 11.02.16 at 8:10 pm

And a Clinton win wouldn’t also reveal a democracy flaw?

LOL

#35 GrannyAnnie on 11.02.16 at 8:11 pm

Sorry about the link. Here is the correct one:
Swingvotergo.com

#36 IHCTD9 on 11.02.16 at 8:15 pm

#216 NoName on 11.02.16 at 5:36 pm
IHCTD9

There is a merits to what are you saying, but you are looking problem and thinking about solution from wrong perspective imho. I love this country as much i miss my old one, but we have a bit of the problem here in this country of ours…
——–

Thanks for your perspective NoName. You could be right, I am largely on the outside looking in on the GTA immigrant situation. My parents are immigrants, but their time was too long ago to compare directly with the experience today, but it was not easy back then.

The essence of my perspective begins with the belief that immigrant success in Toronto has a lot to do with the large enclaves where newcomers to Canada receive all kinds of support from their own people, language, and culture. Other countries have seen their enclaves turn into ghettos, but so far here in Canada things seem to be working out ok.

I see the enclaves as the “community” that you talked about. When my parents came to Canada after WW2, the same helping community existed then as well, back then it was the Church. The Churches were very similar to enclaves in that the various Denominations were National Denominations populated 99% by folks from a single country. Same language, culture etc. again.

A community of countrymen helping the new arrivals on their own initiative is clearly a formula that works. It’s an engine of transition that has probably existed anytime a group of immigrants have successfully set themselves up in a new country.

I don’t want to see the engine that provides so much support for immigrants blow a connecting rod. I believe that there are limits to how many folks an enclave can support. Even a City for that matter.

You sound like you’ve succeeded through some adversity which is great, but I do sense a growing number of failures with newcomers heading back home in increasing numbers.

Here’s hoping you are more right on this than I am, and you seem like a good guy too :)

#37 Trojan House on 11.02.16 at 8:17 pm

#12 – Walmark

Well said. It’s ok to elect a high school drama teacher but not a billionaire entrepreneur???

Btw Garth, what were you before entering office? Most likely an undeserving, inexperienced and unproven person.

I did not run to be president of the world’s most important nation. — Garth

#38 Ogopogo on 11.02.16 at 8:20 pm

Vancouver sales were off 38.8% in October from a year ago.

38.8% off. 38.8% OFF!!! That is a crash in sales, no sugar coating it.

Where is the “it’s different here” special snowflakes now?

#39 nonplused on 11.02.16 at 8:21 pm

If Hillary wins it will just prove what many already suspected: Democracy is a façade. But maybe that’s why they came up with Trump on the Republican side in the first place, to ensure there was no real competition. It’ll be like voting in the old Soviet Union or China, everyone gets to vote, but there is only one candidate.

#40 Deplorable Dude on 11.02.16 at 8:23 pm

The polls are rigged, oversampling dems, not accounting for undecided’s and over estimating Dem turnout.

Trump in a landslide.

And as someone else mentioned yesterday the 2nd American revolution may have started yesterday under everyone’s noses with an internal rebellion at the FBI and the unexpected publishing on a little used Titter FBI account of previous Clinton investigations and some cryptic clues…..a call to the masses to unearth the truth, as they are doing with Wikileaks?

If the various rumours floating about the Clinton Foundation being horrendously corrupt are true….the FBI are trying to save the Republic….

And Trump is actually Batman……;-)

#41 Don Regan on 11.02.16 at 8:24 pm

Apparently, a Steal!

Listing #R2096850
2806 West 37th Ave
Vancouver Org Price $3,500,000 now $2,999.000

#42 Smoking Man on 11.02.16 at 8:24 pm

#12 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.02.16 at 7:01 pm
It would prove democracy’s big flaw – in which an undeserving, inexperienced and unproven person wins office because most people hate the other candidate’s guts more than they fear the flake

Are we talking about T2 and Harper?
……

They both suck

#43 Deja vu on 11.02.16 at 8:25 pm

It would prove democracy’s big flaw – in which an undeserving, inexperienced and unproven person wins office because most people hate the other candidate’s guts more than they fear the flake.

Deja vu from the Canadian election, however you like to spin it. But the people are always right, and you just have to roll with it.

#44 Chaddywack on 11.02.16 at 8:26 pm

“..an undeserving, inexperienced and unproven person wins office because most people hate the other candidate’s guts more than they fear the flake.”

Didn’t that just happen in Canada a year ago?

#45 chapter 9 on 11.02.16 at 8:30 pm

Hillary is experienced,no question about that:

destruction,alteration, or falsification of records in a federal investigation
obstruction of proceedings before department, agencies and committees
concealment,removal or mutilation of official government records
gathering,transmitting or losing defense information and disclosure of classified information
perjury,including documents signed under oath
mail fraud and fraud by wire

The perfect candidate to appoint the next supreme court justice!!

#46 IHCTD9 on 11.02.16 at 8:31 pm

#22 Ken M on 11.02.16 at 7:28 pm
Are fibreglass shingles better than asphalt?
——

Yes, get laminated ones, Owens Corning preferably, no IKO. I did regular organic shingles by IKO, 10 years later they were shot right to hades.

#47 Timmy on 11.02.16 at 8:33 pm

Re Victoria Real Estate Update
We’ve been hearing this for years, yet prices continue to go up for years. Most didn’t think the Chinese would move there because there is no shopping, but I guess we were wrong.

#48 Garth, you are magnificent with your back to the wall on 11.02.16 at 8:33 pm

BTW and I am not saying this to pander to you, but today’s post was brilliant in terms of what to do, either way of what happens in the US in terms of investing plus, I liked your side wipe at YVR RE…the truth is a female dog (as usual, I loved the dog photo, too funny).

Reading your blog, I could feel your tension about the US election effect on the markets and investing, now and into the near future.

Man, do I share that feeling.

Honestly, I believe the DNC is in the process of throwing Hillary under the bus as they did in 2008.

Yesterday, EU time, I watched RealClearPolitics post a No Toss Ups EC vote of Clinton 294, Trump 244 and in a mere 12 hours watch that disintegrate to Clinton 273, Trump 265.

Even lefty NBC is now saying it is mathematically possible for Trump to win.

The polls are turning on her (e.g., ABC had her up by 12% last week and yesterday down by 1%) as is the lefty media (yesterday staunch lefty Chris Matthews, in as many words, quoted Trump’s manifesto about globalization, immigration etc.).

I listened to your broadcast, too honest.

But I believe Trump is going to win this. There is something afoot with the US electorate.

Why we are seeing the S&P stumble and the VIX go frenetic. I believe the polls are wrong and underestimate Trump support.

You cannot deny the latter…it is after all, what the S&P and VIX are telling us. The markets are anticipating a Trump victory, for worse.

I know this is anathema to you, but for me, I am not changing anything in my investments until well after Nov. 8…until the dust settles.

Still, thanks for the reassuring words, you are truly amazing with your back to the wall vis a vis a Trump victory.

bsant

#49 FleetwoodBoy on 11.02.16 at 8:35 pm

I love this headline from the Fraser Valley Board:

Sales increase slightly as inventory hits 10-year low for the month of October.

In the detail…..

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,463 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, a decrease of 17.4 per cent

YOY is a much more valid comparison than MOM.

#50 Jesse Hampson on 11.02.16 at 8:36 pm

Real estate, bonds, stocks, ETF’s, REIT’s, preferred shares, dividend paying stocks, hedge funds, oil and gas, mining stocks, bank stocks, etc. etc.

Too much crap to have money. We are two professionals in our mid 40’s making making both 6 figure salaries. We have 2 kids in university and cash flow all of it, $55,000 a year.

We rent a nice house for $3,500 a month and have accumulated over the years $3,000,000 in total assets. We just made it simple, GIC’s, term deposits, GIA’s and higher interest savings accounts in our RRSP’s $750,000, $110,000 in TFSA’s, $2,140,000 non-registered GIC’s, GIA’s, universal life insurance policies, higher interest savings accounts.

We sold our house in December-2015 and made a $1,000,000 tax free capital gain.

We are satisfied with $100,000 a year in compound interest and $175,000 annual savings we maximize our annual RRSP’s, TFSA’s contributions and non-registered GIC’s, GIA’s etc.

When we reach our $6,500,000 by our mid 50’s then it is time to say bye bye working life!!!!!!!!

#51 Long Branch Apprentice on 11.02.16 at 8:39 pm

I’m no expert, but read this person’s timeline from today.

Seems pretty big to me.

https://twitter.com/cduhaime/status/793871050605928448

I got it from Ben Rabidoux’s twitter feed.

#52 TurnerNation on 11.02.16 at 8:48 pm

Suffering from joint pain?
Welcome to the life of a T2 supporter.

Also in news today: Lisa who?

#53 the other white meat (pork) on 11.02.16 at 8:48 pm

A guy at work bought a one bedroom condo two months ago for 350k. He came into work today and said a unit down the hall with the identical floorplan closed today for 402k. Wild Bill might have blown up the top of the market but shifted the pressure down to the mid priced places. It could be business as usual for condo owners.

PS: Hillary is scum and I hope the investigation into the Clinton Foundation is reopened and allowed to follow its natural course, without intervention by high rolling donors. Just mentioning their name makes me want to rinse with Listerine.

#54 IHCTD9 on 11.02.16 at 8:51 pm

#32 45north on 11.02.16 at 8:02 pm

Hey 45, you might like some of Dr. Joseph Tainter’s stuff “Collapse of Complex Societies”.

He breaks it down by saying successful societies fix problems by creating complexity. Complexity comes in the form of government, legislation, security, law, infrastructure etc… – all of which has to be paid for by said society.

Eventually the list of problems and fixes grows so large that the citizens end up paying ever increasing costs just to maintain the status quo. This society then begins to breakdown and revert back to a more simple society.

http://youtu.be/G0R09YzyuCI

It’s long, but you may find it interesting. I think we have the peak in sight here in Ontario. I’d say if the standard of living is not improving, yet our costs still increase year after year, we are on the downslope.

#55 Pete on 11.02.16 at 8:52 pm

Trump always was the one wanted by the power elite. They are throwing Hillary under the bus as we speak. They are doing the same with the ANC, the EU leaders, etc. It’s going to be one big Drop-and-Sweep as they say in financial circles. Europe fractures, the US rebuilds for 7 years, then WW3, the US/Canada/Australia lose to the Russo/Chinese alliance, Europe is swept up by Russia as a formality. Africa has already been positioned for a Chinese takeover. Their boots are on the ground there already. At that point the world will consist of only 2 (communist) nations (and their satellite ‘special administrative’ regions), both of which are already fully controlled by the powers-that-be.
That is the ‘peaceful’ outcome of a Trump win. A Hillary win will mean they are planing on WW3 right away because they fear that they may lose control of the planet over the next decade.

#56 Rick on 11.02.16 at 8:54 pm

“. It would prove democracy’s big flaw – in which an undeserving, inexperienced and unproven person wins office because most people hate the other candidate’s guts more than they fear the flake.”Obama had no experience, no qualifications. Trump does. He will win. Get use to being wrong Garth.

Ah, dude, Obama was a US Senator. — Garth

#57 Ronaldo on 11.02.16 at 8:55 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/uspolltracker/

These polls are laughable. November 8th will reveal the truth about polls one way or another.

#58 Econsensus on 11.02.16 at 8:56 pm

DOJ Denied FBI’s Grand Jury Request Into Clinton Foundation

Clinton Foundation FBI Investigation: Loretta Lynch’s Obstruction

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/441675/clinton-foundation-fbi-investigation-loretta-lynch-obstruction

#59 Rexx Rock on 11.02.16 at 9:05 pm

The British were fed up with the EU totalitarian,oppressive regime.Its now time to beat this lying corrupt Clinton.Trump is for Americans not the big wall street banker gang like Clinton.God bless Trump.

Beyond stupid. — Garth

#60 soost on 11.02.16 at 9:07 pm

Why did Wynne take a Foreigner Tax off the table? Look for a house in the GTA – participate in a bidding war – and you will know the outliers skewing prices time and time again.

Wynne is going to add ‘affordability measures’ for first time buyers? Time to help over-leveraged youngsters (myself included) spend a bit more. In Idealist Utopia, this won’t cause house prices to inflate in-kind. In the real world those who over-invest in a real asset, should suffer the same downside as those who over-invest in a stock.

#61 Jesse Hampson...more on the math on 11.02.16 at 9:11 pm

cash flow all of it, $55,000 a year

$175,000 annual savings

Which is it?

Good for you guys. Was there an inheritance there along the way?

If not, wow, amazing results with low interest investments.

Smart timing on the house sale.

Kudos.

bsant

#62 The real Kip on 11.02.16 at 9:17 pm

Bozo the clown could beat Trump but Trump lucked out and got Hillary for an opponent.

#63 april on 11.02.16 at 9:20 pm

Collapse in sales seems to apply only to houses in the Vancouver/Lowermainland area?? Condo prices seem to have only gone up?? Does anyone, other than a realtor, have any facts on this?

#64 bdwy sktrn on 11.02.16 at 9:20 pm

just one sale in the area to report this week

110 2405 KAMLOOPS STREET

$399,000 sell $445,000
dom 9

11% over ask for a dumpy old condo, sold 2 days ago.

listings are dropping fast . that’s what happens in a crash right?
“New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 3,981 in October 2016. This represents a decrease of 3.5 per cent compared to the 4,126 units listed in October 2015 and a 17 per cent decrease compared to September 2016 when 4,799 properties were listed.

Last month’s new listing count was 9.5 per cent below the region’s 10-year new listing average for the month.

————————
#199 -=jwk=- on 11.02.16 at 4:23 pm
Can someone explain how TD can do this?

RBC can’t just declare their own prime rate….
———–
stunning display of ignorance in the age of google. wow. just wow.

#65 ABC on 11.02.16 at 9:22 pm

What was Barry before he ran for president of the world’s most nation ?
Oh right a community organizer , well qualified !

#66 bsallergy on 11.02.16 at 9:25 pm

The conspiracy of tweedledum versus tweedledee.

#67 Andrew t on 11.02.16 at 9:27 pm

The only thing more boring than a Trump supporter is a Canadian Trump supporter that can’t vote in the U.S. election. Talk about emasculated.

#68 Context on 11.02.16 at 9:29 pm

#39 nonplused: I may add that its not the votes casted which really counts but what or who counts the votes that determines the winner of any election.

#69 ABC on 11.02.16 at 9:31 pm

#59 Well said Rexx Rock
Obombya was a senator for how long ?
One year and that’s enough experience for president right?

State Senator in Illinois, 7 years. U.S. Senator, 3 years. — Garth

#70 Smoking Man on 11.02.16 at 9:33 pm

I did not run to be president of the world’s most important nation. — Garth
…..

It’s a pitty you diden’t and won. Kids would be financially literate, would be no such thing as SJW.
Victims who never become entrepreneurs. Just slime sucking baby’s.

University would teach rather than dumb them down.

Good thing I’m here to do the heavy lifting.. It’s easy drinking JD.

Nov 7th Dogs.. Deplorables by the Dyslexic Smoking Man.

2 more chapters to edit. Then the Bitch is done.

Chapter 1 found here. Trigger warning snow flakes.

http://Www.dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca

#71 Trojan House on 11.02.16 at 9:35 pm

I did not run to be president of the world’s most important nation. — Garth

Only according to Americans themselves.

Anyway, it’s all relative. You ran for MP – or to be the one of the highest public officials in Canada.

#72 souvereigninternational on 11.02.16 at 9:41 pm

“And here’s the latest from the crazed beaver of a housing analyst Ross Kay, who’s really enjoying watching the market disintegrate (because he predicted this).” -so did I, and I love it too. So far my schedule is right on the money. Just check my comments from 2012.

#73 Aggregator on 11.02.16 at 9:41 pm

#32 45north

REBGV average price is down by 6.3% y/y; $894,177 vs $953,898. REBGV dollar volume on the other hand is down 42.6% y/y; $1,996,697,010 vs $3,477,910,519. That equates to a $74 million loss in terms of agent commissions (assuming buy-sell at 5% commission).

However I'd be very cautious with MLS data as more and more private listings are being sold and listed on non-MLS sites like Juwai.

Regardless of what happens, like Calgary it will be only a matter of time before the govt steps back in to 'save' homeowners equity with more stimulus. And for the time being whatever the average sales price falls to is irrelevant because banks use their shock absorbing THPI to value mortgages in bonds and securities. By the time that index declines lenders will be back in Vancouver handing out mortgages like candy.

Years ago I posted the 1.99% mortgage was coming. Now the 0.99% mortgage is next.

#74 Mark on 11.02.16 at 9:54 pm

“RBC can’t just declare their own prime rate….”

Any of the banks can set whatever “prime rate” they want. Subject to basically only the Criminal Code limits on interest rates. Some VRM loan contracts have ceilings on their rates, but they’re usually at levels which would basically bankrupt most people who have them.

As far as Vancouver/Toronto RE, dropping like a stone right now. Kind of hilarious (well not really) that the Realtors are out in full force tonight trying to paint an alternate reality.

#75 Smoking Man on 11.02.16 at 9:58 pm

Trump or Hillary.

Machine always figures out a way to oun them.

No one ouns the Smoking Man, although I do have a weakness to my wife of 35 years. Stockholm home syndrome or love.

To deep into it to know.

Can’t believe she stuck by me for the last crazy 6 years allowing me to experiment, drink to oblivion and find my writers voice..

Garth has a Dorothy and I got a Highlander. We’re both lucky.

#76 Mark on 11.02.16 at 10:03 pm

“Regardless of what happens, like Calgary it will be only a matter of time before the govt steps back in to ‘save’ homeowners equity with more stimulus. And for the time being whatever the average sales price falls to is irrelevant because banks use their shock absorbing THPI to value mortgages in bonds and securities. By the time that index declines lenders will be back in Vancouver handing out mortgages like candy.
Years ago I posted the 1.99% mortgage was coming. Now the 0.99% mortgage is next.”

The government, whether under the Tories with Flaherty’s crackdown in 2013 of CMHC subprime (which marked the peak of the Canadian market), or more recently under the Liberals with the most recent changes, have indicated, solidly, that more housing stimulus is *not* on the table. Canadians need jobs and economic prosperity, not higher house prices.

The housing market now suffers so much physical overcapacity that stimulus won’t even work. 3 years of stagnation, and now pretty significant price declines across Canada is rapidly eliminating any appetite amongst the mortgage lenders for increasing their lending and decreasing spreads. 0.99% loans may very well exist, but only for extremely highly capitalized mortgages (ie: low LTV), or loans against the ‘next’ asset class to inflate (I figure stocks personally, since they’re priced at such distressed values, particularly the TSX).

As for “THPI”, everyone who has studied it knows that it lags behind reality by years due to its methodology. A sort of a view of the housing market through ‘beer goggles’. Not credible in the least.

#77 paulo on 11.02.16 at 10:10 pm

no matter the “winner” in this election, the American People “loose” unfortunately!

#78 Margaret on 11.02.16 at 10:21 pm

Why is that anyone who is a Republican is a sexist who couldn’t refrain from misogynistic speech in their debates with Hillary Clinton?

I am an educator who finds the Comments Section to be rife with sexist comments against women.

A more balanced discussion without the sexism will attract more of your fans to collaborate with the topic other than trolling.

If Toronto is a bad city, then why do over 250,000 newcomers call Toronto home every year?

#79 rock beats paper on 11.02.16 at 10:36 pm

Democracy takes a it no matter which one wins.

In the 7 trading days that stocks went down, so did bonds, big time. I hope you are correct Garth that the safe stuff will hold up, after all, a lot of this stuff is at multi century extremes.

At least Prefs did not go down.

#80 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.02.16 at 10:37 pm

#50 Jesse Hampson on 11.02.16 at 8:36 pm

Nice. Question. What happens at age 55? I hit a bit over $3m assets at age 40 and I stopped working. Health doesn’t improve with age. 15 years is a lot of time to burn.

Don’t buy the “I love my job” bit unless theyre working for free. Most people pay for things that they love, like vacation or hobbies. Work clearly not a love if one demands getting paid.

#81 Brian Ripley on 11.02.16 at 10:38 pm

BNN had an interesting interview yesterday with Mark Cashin, mortgage broker from Toronto who noted that in the private market, a first mortgage would require a 6% rate instead of the RateHub quote of 2.12-2.19%.

That’s a measure of risk in the real world where real people actually care about real money, real risk and a real ROI.

I mashed up my comments of the BNN Mark Cashin interview link with some charts from Macleans Magazine from Oct 31st “Canada’s housing bubble makes America’s look tiny”

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/the-shadow-of-reality

Tiny indeed… but it still feels like not many are worried. I guess that is the emotional profile of a top.

#82 Figmund Sreud on 11.02.16 at 10:39 pm

To counterbalance opinions of your “smartypants, know-it-all, suspender-snapping, Bay Street, high-priced, omniscient professional portfolio manager partners”:

The Last Gasp of the American Dream
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.ca/2016/11/the-last-gasp-of-american-dream.html?m=0

… Thus the grassroots movement that propelled Trump to the Republican nomination in the teeth of the GOP establishment, and has brought him to within a couple of aces of the White House in the teeth of the entire US political class, might best be understood as the last gasp of the American dream. Whether he wins or loses next week, this country is moving into the darkness of an uncharted night—and it’s not out of place to wonder, much as Hamlet did, what dreams may come in that darkness.

Enjoy this very good read.

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#83 Self Directed on 11.02.16 at 10:41 pm

Stocks down, bonds up… The S&P 500 has lost ground for seven sessions running… – Garth

Why haven’t ETF Bonds like VSB, XCB barely moved? Can we expect these ETF’s to go up on account of ‘equities’ running for save haven?

Anyone? Bueller?

#84 Larry Dickman on 11.02.16 at 10:43 pm

The FBI investigations into Hillary’s email server, Weiner’s laptop and the Clinton Foundation are a very big deal … I can’t imagine anyone voting for Hillary under these unfortunate circumstances … which is why the media and the pollsters have grossly misrepresented her support … Trump will win in a landslide – just like Reagan did when America was great and with Trump in the White House, America will be great again.

#85 common sense on 11.02.16 at 11:01 pm

Imagine if Trump wins and The USA legalizes Pot before Canada???????????

#86 InvestorsFriend on 11.02.16 at 11:01 pm

Irony

#64 bdwy sktrn on 11.02.16 at 9:20 pm responded to 199 as follows:

#199 -=jwk=- on 11.02.16 at 4:23 pm
Can someone explain how TD can do this?
RBC can’t just declare their own prime rate….
———–
stunning display of ignorance in the age of google. wow. just wow.

***********************************
Ironically, that was an ignorant and arrogant response, in any age.

Sadly, for 199, RBC CAN change their prime rate at will. Regulators probably should prevent banks from calling their reference rate a “Prime” rate since that is easily confused with the bank of Canada prime rate.

#87 Smoking Man on 11.02.16 at 11:04 pm

Is CTV an American machine owned company.
Lisa Laflam. So owned to the tell a prompter..

Nice disigner cloths, brain = 0

Going on YouTube searching for songs of Freedom.

#88 Terry on 11.02.16 at 11:04 pm

Trump has got this one in the bag! There are a lot of Trump supporters who are remaining silent about their support for him and their intention to vote for Trump on election day because of the fear of violence and other unpleasant labels targeted towards them from the Democrats. And this also includes a lot of Electoral College Delegates too!

#89 Smoking Man on 11.02.16 at 11:12 pm

November 9th
https://youtu.be/JvSUmci7qm0

Or

https://youtu.be/8SbUC-UaAxE

Don’t matter.
https://youtu.be/Tj75Arhq5ho

Either way, I’m a happy prick.

Tunes and bozze.

#90 100% Taxation is coming on 11.02.16 at 11:18 pm

When you refer to an “undeserving and inexperienced person ” taking office might you be also referring to the entire Lib-Tard cabinet? After all any idiot can take a slim billion dollar surplus and turn it into a 100 billion dollar deficit in less than a year.

T Ball Turdeau hasn’t created a single job out billions flushed down the toilet. His secret advisor is Lib Tard puppet goon Gerald Butts, yes that’s right, the same Butt-Head that “advised” a crotchety Wynne Lib Tard Ontario into an economic morass.

Spending is easy when it’s someone’s money.

#91 Bram on 11.02.16 at 11:20 pm

#38 Ogopogo on 11.02.16 at 8:20 pm
38.8% off. 38.8% OFF!!! That is a crash in sales, no sugar coating it.

Here’s my attempt to put a sugar coat on that:

You could also say the sales volume has returned to the pre-bubble historic (normal) volumes.

Who is to say what a normal volume would be for a 900,000 home city?
The 2200 of last month, or the 3600 of oct2016?
Hard to say. Maybe compare it to Seattle or something to see if it is indeed very low.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/vancouver-home-sales-fall-by-38-8-per-cent-1.3143084

#92 Understood by few on 11.02.16 at 11:25 pm

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.02.16 at 6:32 pm

Overall, sales of detached houses were down 1% compared to October 2015.

Woah, down a whole percent? So what, 3 less houses sold?

On its own that’s pretty meaningless. But if you take it in context of supply there were 10% less sfh to choose from and only a 1% drop in sales.

If you look at all sales, they were down a bit more than 1%. Around 2% or maybe 3. BUUUUT (big but), inventory last October was > 3000 and this year is under 2000. Available properties dripped by at least a third and sales for the month only dropped single digits.

Sales to new list was in the 80s.. again. Still a crazy seller’s market. Median price was up 2% MoM. Prices will give flat before they start to drop.

We’ll see what November brings, but so far it doesn’t look like the new rules have dampened things. Very few high ratio mortgages for SFH in core, so it wobt affect that many people vying for the desirable places. Western communities should get hut first and hardest (since that’s the “affordable” housing).

Time will tell, but you dramatic price drops aren’t here yet. Just like they weren’t in September like you predicted. Any day now though….

My take: prices will hold until spring. Then it could go either way. Inventory will increase and if demand can’t match.. yeah, we’ll finally see a calmer market and fairer prices.

#93 No Mercy on 11.02.16 at 11:33 pm

American politics are a joke. This year much more than usual. 2 candiates with low numbers. I was hoping the libertarian dude stand out but he’s clueless.

America is clueless that they are a bunch of sheep voting for 2 idiots no one likes.

No wonder Russia, China, Turkey, UK, Iran, Saudi Arabia and so many countries are doing as they please.

America is done. Next comes the 100 year of decline.

Still plenty of time to make money in corporations.

If you are a freeman. Load up. They are coming for you.

#94 Cash In Some on 11.02.16 at 11:35 pm

Trump wins, 30% US market correction follows, Q1 2017, EU stumbles, Italy defaults, China crashes yuan, bonds surge, trillions & trillions & trillions go “poof” Obviously this will never happen, we all know that the empire is not in need of a catalyst to zap 190 trillion USD in entitlements between now & 2040.

#95 Tony on 11.02.16 at 11:42 pm

Is there nothing else we can talk about besides the US elections? Please just stop.

#96 Sue Me on 11.02.16 at 11:53 pm

Most conference call services can turn off the notification for joining or leaving calls. Its usually buried deep in the user guide. I’ve done this when I’ve had large audiences for a better listener experience. Ymmv.

Great call though I enjoyed that.

J

#97 Hairhead on 11.02.16 at 11:56 pm

[email protected] – Look, hate Obama all you want (I don’t like him either), but take 10 seconds on Google before repeated flat-out lies.

Obama spent: 4 years as a US Senator from Illinois, 8 years as a State Senator, and several more years as a community organizer, working on voter registration and such. Let’s say, 15 years of political experience at the municipal, state, and federal level.

Obama’s a whole bunch of things, but “inexperienced and unqualified” he was not.

#98 Holbourne Cresent Real Estate Update on 11.02.16 at 11:57 pm

Still eight houses on my street.

#99 Dispatches from Under the Bridge on 11.03.16 at 12:02 am

When you listen to some of the interviews of common people about this election or read the comments here and other places it really makes you fear for mankind.

#100 conan on 11.03.16 at 12:14 am

RE #82 Self Directed on 11.02.16 at 10:41 pm

Q : Why haven’t ETF Bonds like VSB, XCB barely moved?

My guess is the quality of corporate paper buried deep within them.

Who would pawn bad paper on unsuspecting investors? Really, that’s unheard of.

#101 Mark on 11.03.16 at 12:17 am

“Regulators probably should prevent banks from calling their reference rate a “Prime” rate since that is easily confused with the bank of Canada prime rate.”

I wasn’t aware that the Bank of Canada had a ‘prime rate’. They have a “policy target” for overnight unsecured loans made between banks. And they have rates against which they will discount certain collateral at their equivalent of the ‘discount window’ (use of such facility is viewed as a profound sign of distress!). But a BoC “prime rate”, to the best of my knowledge, simply does not exist.

The real problem here is that consumers are not financially literate, and the banker or mortgage broker sitting on the other side of the table trying to sell a transaction has neither the training, nor the responsibility to ensure that the borrower is educated on the finer points of banking and the mechanics of how interest rates are determined for retail borrowers.

“Is CTV an American machine owned company.”

CTV is owned by BCE Inc., a Montreal company also known as Bell.

#102 ChickenLittle on 11.03.16 at 12:25 am

God bless Wiki Leaks!

Here’s what we know so far…(or are able to surmise)

The ONLY reason for the Clinton’s to have a private server was to cover up their corrupt pay to play dealings with whoever would ply them with vast amounts of cash to the tune of about $300 Million over the last 20 years.

Turns out that there is now a 99% certainty that the Clinton’s private server was actually hacked by up to 5 foreign governments. They all have copies of the 33,000 bleached emails.

If Clinton gets elected next week we will see another Watergate type scandal where Clinton will be impeached and she will be thrown out of office in her first 18 months just like Nixon was.

Of course we will hear the old refrain coming out of HRC’s mouth saying: “I am not a crook!”

All the while the world continues to spiral out of control.

Oh yeah, the sky is falling…

#103 DON on 11.03.16 at 12:36 am

@45north

“…At this point, they will vote for Donald Trump out of frustration. I’m not saying necessarily, but when the other candidate is not seen as upright then the temptation is right there.

I see something of this in Ontario with the rapid increase in the cost of electricity.

In BC, I see something of the same in the sudden, inexplicable lost of 20% in real estate. It’s not really inexplicable but it’s completely outside the expectations of most people.”

**************

Nicely said!

Much like going on a bender and expecting to avoid the hangover.

#104 Tony on 11.03.16 at 12:39 am

ADP report 147 (rigged of course to make the Friday jobs report look even better). Friday jobs report 297,000 jobs. Hillary wins by a bigger landslide than Ronald Reagan. I buy the inverse VIX either this Monday or Tuesday I still haven’t figured out which day. I sell at the open Thursday the 10th (XIV) then short the stock indexes (Friday the 11th this month) for the next three months. At the end of this November buy carloads of gold in anticipation of the jobs report for November which will show jobs loses.

#105 Metaxa on 11.03.16 at 12:40 am

Terry, I’m not singling you out…just not going to peddle back through all the comments for other examples.

…because of the fear of violence and other unpleasant labels targeted towards them from the Democrats.

Give me a break. I thought the lefties were the weak ones while you rightist types were the strong, salt of the earth manly men? Stop whinging.

Anyway, some time ago I was engaged in conversation with some real life folks and we came to the conclusion that if the right charismatic leader came along and appealed to the Venn diagram population where the wants/needs of the Tea Party and those of the Occupy movement intersected that you could use that base to grow even larger by encapsulating various fringes of both populations and in fairly short order provide the US citizens with a viable third party.

Recall Western Separation which begat Reform which begat the eating of my beloved Progressive Conservative Party and the metamorphosis into the current Conservative Party of Canada. Patooie!

Like that only writ large in the US. Scary, huh?

Trump maybe could have been that guy, their Preston, but you know what…he’s both too stupid and too into himself.

But the can of worms has been opened and somewhere that guy is out there, plotting. Peter Thiel is looking for that guy right now. Make the medicine palatable and folks will willingly take it.

Some billionaires buy sports teams, some plot the overtaking of the world…so far its been Pinky and the Brain but one day and soon it will be inoculated into the host and will grow and come to rule us all. That third US political party…

#106 Jim on 11.03.16 at 1:03 am

Bitcoin just touched $1000, get your’s before it jumps to $10,000!

#107 DON on 11.03.16 at 1:10 am

#84 common sense on 11.02.16 at 11:01 pm

Imagine if Trump wins and The USA legalizes Pot before Canada???????????
********************
If money is involved the Donald will be on it – of course if elected. Canada should stop diddling and grab the tax revenues.

#108 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.03.16 at 1:26 am

http://prospect.org/article/shocking-rise-white-death-rates-midlife-and-what-it-says-about-american-society

The US is the only rich nation whereby Midlife whites are dying in increasing rates while other nations rates are falling.

It looks like the selfish society that was created, took too much from the gains of offshoring and automation and gave it all to the rich.

Supposing you have machines eventually doing all the work then eventually you have to share the wealth.

That day will likely only come when the last rich person has his cold dead fingers pried off of his riches. Meaning, they will never share unless it is shared through Minimum income legislation.

The Donald Trumps of the world think they are very clever because they “own” machines that create wealth. There are 2 parts to wealth.
1. the creation of it. and 2. the buyers of your creations. It looks like the buyers are being phased out.

The Rich will be able to sit in their Gated communities and imprison themselves with their wealth instead of sharing it like other Europeans who are free to walk most every street in their nations.

#109 Freedom First on 11.03.16 at 1:31 am

#50 Jesse Hampson

Yes. You are sitting pretty. For now. But definitely at your age you need global diversity. Fact.

21 Countries have had their currencies collapse in the last 25 years.

Even the U.S. has had 2 currency collapses in their history.

Nobody knows what the future holds.

I make 0 assumptions. And have 0 expectations.

However, a Financial Fortress is always a good idea.

I am a #’s man and want the odds/any odds, stacked in my favour.

History proves me right. Fact.

007
Freedom First
PHD/Freedomonics

.

#110 Tony on 11.03.16 at 1:37 am

Re: #79 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.02.16 at 10:37 pm

A lot could happen by the time they hit 55 years of age. The banks (the ones that survive) could by then have taken all of “their” money with bail-ins. Canada some day will likely end up like Cyprus. That’s why you have to make wise choices before things like that happen… something most people just don’t see coming.

#111 Dan on 11.03.16 at 1:39 am

Garth,
You are a stubborn-ass…Trump by a landslide!!!
Dan

#112 bdwy sktrn on 11.03.16 at 2:26 am

#85 InvestorsFriend on 11.02.16 at 11:01 pm

Ironically, that was an ignorant and arrogant response, in any age.

Sadly, for 199, RBC CAN change their prime rate at will. Regulators probably should prevent banks from calling their reference rate a “Prime” rate since that is easily confused with the ******bank of Canada prime rate*****.

—————-
WTF is wrong with you boy?

Another even more stunning display of ignorance in the age of google. wow. just wow.

you are an idiot. I.D.I.O.T.

why don’t you give us todays closing quote on the BOC prime rate.

Oh, that’s right you can’t because there is no such thing.

Since you luddites won’t or can’t use google , Ill help you.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/

maybe you can’t read but the word ‘prime’ is not there.

and you are calling people ignorant?!? triple wow.

learn to google before disgracing these pages again.

you pollute.

——————————

and btw cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuubbbbbbbbbbbbs win!!!!!!

#113 bdwy sktrn on 11.03.16 at 2:38 am

#86 Smoking Man on 11.02.16 at 11:04 pm
Is CTV an American machine owned company.
Lisa Laflam. So owned to the tell a prompter..
———————
hey i don’t know what ms smokey looks like , but i always found LL kinda hot (less so now of course, but age does that) in that smokey/french kind of dark and mysterious way. she can read b league baseball scores is fine with me.

i think msm anchors read the prompter or get fired. she has no choice. and trust me, i can spot dumb (see above) and she’s not dumb, she’s collecting a fat cheque for a dead easy job.

#114 Extended Range Electric Car on 11.03.16 at 2:52 am

An electric car is about to be unveiled that can travel up to 1000 kilometers on a single charge.

Using an alternating pulsed-current and micro generators on each wheel, a second battery can be charged by the moving wheels while the first battery powers the car. Simply switching over the batteries allows the process to continue. Graphene battery technology will extend the range by 50% in 2017.

Industry Canada is investing $160M on the hopes of scores of new spinoff green jobs.

#115 jane24 on 11.03.16 at 3:27 am

Trump and Brexit both represent the 99% arising against the 1% world elite. Globalisation builds the rich but does indeed bring the rest of us middle class types down. And I vote Conservative!! This realisation is now sweeping the ordinary punters in the Western democracies.

But whatever result democracy gives us is always the right decision. This is the essence of democracy. After Brexit the Chinese premier said ‘ this is the problem with democracy, you get the wrong decision’. David Attenborough here in GB last week said that’ ordinary voters don’t have the knowledge base for big policy decisions such as Brexit”. The German Foreign Minister announced yesterday that the EU court can reverse Brexit and correct the mistake of the British people.

What bit about democracy do these people not understand.

#116 Clinton joke on 11.03.16 at 3:28 am

Hillary Clinton goes to a gifted-student primary school in New York to talk about the world. After her talk she offers to answer questions from the kids.
One little boy puts up his hand. Hillary asks him what his name i

“Kenny,” he says.

“And what is your question, Kenny?” she asks.

“I have three questions,” he says. “First — what happened in Benghazi? “Second — why would you run for president if you are not capable of handling two e-mail accounts? “Third — what happened to that six billion dollars that went missing while you were Secretary of State?”

Just then the bell rings for recess.
Hillary tells the students that they will continue after recess. When they resume Hillary says,

“Okay, where were we? Oh, that’s right, question time. Who has a question?”

A different boy — little Johnny — puts his hand up.
Hillary points to him and asks him what his name is.
“Johnny,” he says.
“What is your question, Johnny?” she asks.

“I have five questions,” he says. “First — what happened in Benghazi? “Second — why would you run for president if you are not capable of handling two e-mail accounts? “Third — whatever happened to that six billion dollars that went missing while you were Secretary of State? “Fourth — why did the recess bell go off 21 minutes early? “And, fifth — where’s Kenny?”

#117 BillyBob on 11.03.16 at 5:45 am

#70 Trojan House on 11.02.16 at 9:35 pm
I did not run to be president of the world’s most important nation. — Garth

Only according to Americans themselves.

====================================

No. It has something to do with having the world’s largest economy and most powerful military, I think.

Typical insecure comment.

#118 Trrrrrump! on 11.03.16 at 7:17 am

The single biggest flaw to economics and the economists who study the daily data is interpretation. I look at the data and draw one conclusion while buddy one office over draws another.

I have to say a Trump win will be good for America’s economy and there are tons of economic theories to prove it. Do not believe MSM propaganda that globalization is good for superpowers…. It’s not.

As a result this summer I sold off most of my maple syrup and invested in USA and international mutual funds.

#119 YVR Oct. Sales Down 39% on 11.03.16 at 7:17 am

Yesterday.

REBGV says YVR RE sales down by 39%.

Benchmark price down 0.8% from Sept., up 25% from Oct. 2015.

Occam’s Razor:

How do unit sales collapse, yet prices go up?

I’ll let you guess on your own, the easiest and most likely answer.

But here is some background on the benchmark price…

Benchmark math, a few fun filled Stats hours of it, needs serious revising. KEY statistical math used:

Multivariate regression analysis, Akaike Information Criterion, Ramsey RESET Test, ordinary least square (OLS) regression modelling, Laspeyres Index, The Chained Fisher Index etc.

It is a 3 year moving average (to mitigate volatility), missing data is fudged in, if there is NOT ENOUGH sales volume the stats do not work well – which of course, they NEVER TELL YOU if that has happened.

In effect, it understates price spikes and price drops, uses years old data and produces house categories which cannot be easily compared to listings for homes:

Attached Single Family: 1 storey, 2 storey
Detached Single Family: 1 storey, 2 storey
Apartment
Townhouse/Row Units, your all other category

REBGV says Economists agree that they like this.

Probably because they are the only ones that can understand the math and thus, can play with the numbers with impunity.

It is likely that 99.97% of Realtors cannot explain how these numbers were calculated, let alone the average person.

Thus, it amazes me that people rely on this cluster f— number from REBGV.

Why I like Average Prices for Detached, Townhouse and Condo. They are human numbers easily calculated by all, not just a select few.

bsant

Like I said. Frankenumber. — Garth

#120 Smoking Man on 11.03.16 at 7:23 am

Can’t beat the machine.

Brexit betrayal. High Court tosses it in the ditch.
System rigged.

#121 Nanny White on 11.03.16 at 7:33 am

#77 Margaret

Men are not overly sexist, female union educators are overly empowered to dole out politically correct bullying under today’s regime of politically correct nonsense. Think of what a generation of “snowflakes” will do to your pension plan when it’s decided that the work is too cruel and everyone who feels abused can stay home and collect a dole?

Case in point, our delicate flower PM and his lib-yard cabinet are on track to bankrupt the country which take your pension with it because they see and feel that people have become weak enough to abuse.

If you want to safeguard the seniors and your pension you’d better hope the next generation grows a set and gets dirty with a smile.

#122 #115 Clinton joke...too, too funny on 11.03.16 at 7:44 am

That was a very funny joke.

Thanks #115 Clinton joke, you made me laugh this AM.

Posted it to my Facebook page, I liked it that much.

Wry and cute humor is not dead and so good to read.

bsant

#123 Pepito on 11.03.16 at 7:49 am

Agree with # 83 comment, the FBI investigation IS a big deal. It is just the beginning of an unravelling of massive corruption at the highest levels of the Obama administration which has allowed capture of both the state department and the DOJ by the Clinton’s pay for play foundation. That’s the real story here and it’s not going to go away regardless who wins. Expect markets to be in turmoil as this mess begins to seriously unwind after the election.

#124 Andrew t on 11.03.16 at 8:03 am

#87 Terry on 11.02.16 at 11:04 pm
Trump has got this one in the bag! There are a lot of Trump supporters who are remaining silent about their support for him and their intention to vote for Trump on election day because of the fear of violence and other unpleasant labels targeted towards them from the Democrats. And this also includes a lot of Electoral College Delegates too!

Trump supporters are many things, silent is not one of them.

#125 Yuus bin Haad on 11.03.16 at 8:17 am

Cubs win – futures up – everything else is just noise.

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.03.16 at 8:22 am

@#77 Margret
“If Toronto is a bad city, then why do over 250,000 newcomers call Toronto home every year?”
********************************************

Are you STILL beating that dead horse?

#127 with that sask guy on 11.03.16 at 8:46 am

“Trump as POTUS would be a surprise. It would prove democracy’s big flaw – in which an undeserving, inexperienced and unproven person wins office because most people hate the other candidate’s guts more than they fear the flake.”
===========

Funny, if it was a lefty in Trump’s position, this would be celebrated.

And as comment #12 said, I think you mean Trudeau in your statement.

Left or right has no bearing on my statement. It is universally, and sadly, true. — Garth

#128 neo on 11.03.16 at 9:26 am

Looks like business as usual in the GTA.

“The average price to buy a detached house in Toronto has risen to $1.3 million.

The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) said the year-over-year price in the city has jumped 21.7 per cent for a detached house in October.

In the GTA, the average price of detached home sales in October was $1,034,077, a 25.8 per cent jump from a year before.

The average price of all homes sold in the GTA in October was $762,975, an increase of 21.1 per cent, TREB reports.

In October, 9,768 homes were sold in the GTA, 11.5 per cent more than in October 2015.”

#129 Nathan on 11.03.16 at 9:26 am

Hi Garth. Just wanted to send a quick note supporting you and your daily blog as I find it quite insightful. It’s a shame that there are so many loud, yet ill informed commentators that you have to patiently correct. I hope there will be many more entries from you for many years to come!

#130 willworkforpickles on 11.03.16 at 9:34 am

The big one, the economic crash of the century will be much worse than any real estate mini crashes now.
We will wake up to find governments have frozen personal bank accounts. When the freeze is lifted, up to 80% of our savings will be gone to pay the national debt to save the country.
But only in America? Not only in America.

#131 Gonkman on 11.03.16 at 9:38 am

@#77 Margaret on 11.02.16 at 10:21 pm

Why is that anyone who is a Republican is a sexist who couldn’t refrain from misogynistic speech in their debates with Hillary Clinton?

I am an educator who finds the Comments Section to be rife with sexist comments against women.

A more balanced discussion without the sexism will attract more of your fans to collaborate with the topic other than trolling.

—————————————————————

Please proceed to ww.cbc.com if your Princess PC mindset can’t handle free speech.

You will find all the comments their heavily moderated and more to your Politically correct Lefty ideals.

Hey Smokey… Here is another “Educator” brainwashing the herd.

People can have their opinions and express them…

Trump
– Not a good great choice for POTUS
– Womanizer (I don’t care though. Money Talks.. A lot of Women listen)
– Has FU Money… Doesn’t Care about Political Correctness

Clinton
– Worse Choice for POTUS
– Power Hungry
– Corrupt beyond means
– Should be in Jail
– Huge Hypocrite. Says what you want to hear and does the opposite if there is $$$ involved.
– Married to a “Misogynist” who fooled around on her. Still married to him and “Loves Him”.

I think BOTH are terrible candidates.. but after all the Lefty Loonies here voted in T2… I think the US Can handle Trump and would be better off that the status quo of Hillary.

#132 John Foster on 11.03.16 at 9:49 am

For Smoking Man:

http://bit.ly/2f4EAOX

#133 McLovin on 11.03.16 at 10:03 am

It doesn’t take a Weatherman to see which way the wind blows…

#134 Econsensus on 11.03.16 at 10:10 am

REMEMBER WHEN BILL CLINTON WAS PRESIDENT?
(January 20, 1993 to January 20, 2001—two terms)

DELETED – Don’t cut-and-paste long articles here from other sources without attribution. Have more respect. Better yet, go away. – Garth

#135 Souvereigninternational on 11.03.16 at 10:21 am

@#77 Margret
“If Toronto is a bad city, then why do over 250,000 newcomers call Toronto home every year?”
******************
How about THEY HAD NO OTHER/BETTER CHOICE sound for an answer.

#136 Gulf Breeze on 11.03.16 at 11:02 am

#50 Jesse Hampson,

Seriously not impressed with people who itemize their riches for all to see. And not jealous either as am in the same demographic as you.

If you want to impress, tell us what you are doing for those who are less fortunate, through no fault of their own.

These are tough times and they are going to get tougher for many. Take some of that dough and get it circulating by giving it away.

#137 InvestorsFriend on 11.03.16 at 11:07 am

There is No Bank of Canada Prime Rate

Couple of responses to me about my mistaken reference to a Bank of Canada Prime rate.

#100 Mark on 11.03.16 at 12:17 am

“Regulators probably should prevent banks from calling their reference rate a “Prime” rate since that is easily confused with the bank of Canada prime rate.”
I wasn’t aware that the Bank of Canada had a ‘prime rate’.

and

#111 bdwy sktrn on 11.03.16 at 2:26 am

WTF is wrong with you boy?

Another even more stunning display of ignorance in the age of google. wow. just wow.
you are an idiot. I.D.I.O.T.

***************************************
Congratulations to Mark who is right and gave a smug but not ignorant response.

As to bdwy sktrn, thanks for making my point that your post to 199 was ignorant by repeating the behavior.

#138 Alex on 11.03.16 at 11:13 am

With all respect, posting 54% decline to the seasonal peak is misleading in terms of analysis. What about YoY numbers? Median price?

//Overall, sales of detached houses were down 1% compared to October 2015.//
Well, the 1% YoY fall and we call this a “crash”? Cmon…

#139 Victor V on 11.03.16 at 11:19 am

Toronto realtors say market has reached an ‘intense’ phase as suburbs take off

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/toronto-realtors-say-market-has-reached-an-intense-phase-as-suburbs-take-off

#140 Damifino on 11.03.16 at 11:22 am

#113 Extended Range Electric Car

“Using an alternating pulsed-current and micro generators on each wheel, a second battery can be charged by the moving wheels while the first battery powers the car.”
—————————————

When I was a kid I thought it would be a capital idea to hook up a generator to a motor and create a machine that ran forever. My grade eight science teacher explained to me why that simply can not work. He said mankind had tried such things for centuries and finally gave up. Well, most people anyway.

Have the stalwarts who thanklessly slave away in their basement workshops finally found a way to get something for nothing?

—————————————
Industry Canada is investing $160M on the hopes of scores of new spinoff green jobs.”
—————————————

Great! I always thought if we had a strong enough leader with a big enough commitment (and ego) we could overcome the pesky laws of thermodynamics.

I believe Justin Trudeau to be such a man.

BTW, the best way to extend the range of and electric vehicle is with a fossil fueled backup system. And there it is again green technology rescued by energy that’s, at once, cheap, reliable and abundant.

#141 MF on 11.03.16 at 11:28 am

#119 Smoking Man on 11.03.16 at 7:23 am

Luckily, that decision doesn’t mean Brexit won’t happen.

Here is a decent write up on the decision:

http://news.forexlive.com/!/brexit-what-now-20161103

Quotes:

“The court case was never about reversing the decision, only that parliament votes to pull the trigger on article 50. ”

“Now, while there are some that want to reverse the vote, the majority know it would be absolute political suicide to try and do so. The UK would be plunged into a huge political mess that would be far more damaging to the country than Brexit itself.”

“The vast majority of parliament, mainly the opposition parties, have said that the will abide by the vote but want to know what the government has in its negotiating locker, before they will allow article 50 to be triggered. Once satisfied, they’ll vote it through.”

Basically the Brexit victory should still stand, however no one said it will be an easy process since we know those opposed to the whole thing will kick and scream the all the way out the door. We will hear it all again: Racists!! Bigots!! Unjust!! Unconstitutional!! Their lies will not matter in the end because the British people have already spoken and the victory will stand.

MF

Correction: 59.2% of Britons want to leave. 48.1% do not. “The British people have already spoken…” is a lie. They spoke with two almost equal voices. — Garth

#142 MF on 11.03.16 at 11:31 am

#134 Souvereigninternational on 11.03.16 at 10:21 am
@#77 Margret
“If Toronto is a bad city, then why do over 250,000 newcomers call Toronto home every year?”
******************
How about THEY HAD NO OTHER/BETTER CHOICE sound for an answer.

-Nope. I was born in Toronto and have grown up with immigrants my whole life here in the GTA. Almost all find life here enjoyable. I wrote a post on this topic last blog update. Go read it.

MF

MF

#143 rainclouds on 11.03.16 at 11:33 am

Ethics? oversight? Not required…………..

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/real-estate-agents-caught-breaking-the-rules-on-marketplace-s-hidden-camera-1.3825841

#144 doug t on 11.03.16 at 11:49 am

#128 Nathan

suck up a little more

#145 traderJim on 11.03.16 at 12:10 pm

Kills me when someone points to a career politician as ‘having experience’. Yeah, on how to be two faced, corrupt, manipulative…

Someone please point out to me how Hillary was ‘experienced’ enough to become Senator. And then how a 1 term Senator is experienced enough to become Sec of State?

And now, tell me one, just ONE achievement Hillary had as Senator. Can’t be done, because there isn’t one. Not one.

Now the same for her time as Sec of State: Achievements: Libya, oh that’s looking good, not to mention the Benghazi disaster. Syria. The rise of ISIS. New cold war with Russia. Etc etc.

As Trump so correctly pointed out, she has experience alright, bad experience.

Her closest aides repeatedly state she has bad judgement, and that everything she touches turns to shit.

But a guy who has employed thousands, built many businesses and made a fortune is somehow not ‘experienced’.

Incredible the hoops people jump through to try to rationalize their support for a career criminal, I guess because Trump’s New York vulgarity and brashness offends their sensibilities.

“Everyone” says people don’t talk like Trump in locker rooms.

Well, I worked on a trading floor for over a decade and believe me, what Trump said is MILD, not even remarkable in that environment. I heard worse several times a day, every day, for years. Guess that’s why it doesn’t phase me. And the women on the floor were right up there with the boys in terms of vulgar talk.

So the choice is, a career criminal who only talks about herself (being the first female President yada yada yada) or a brash, vulgar ‘narcissist’ who only talks about how to make America great.

I’ve seen this scenario before, and last time America had this kind of choice, Reagan won in a landslide.

Now that the press is finally turning on Hillary, I may have to change my prediction of a Hillary win.

(And regardless of election results, the FBI rank and file are refusing to obey orders from the Clinton friends at the DOJ to stand down and stop investigating the Clintons. It is absolutely unprecedented and extraordinary. (‘Boring’ to people whose lives revolve around the price of their house) She will be impeached in record time if elected.)

Enough with the candidate-bashing crap. Nobody voting in the US is paying us any attention, so better to concentrate on dealing with the potential outcomes. — Garth

#146 Derek Danson on 11.03.16 at 12:10 pm

About Jesse Sampson and his spouse’s income and savings, expenses. They are most like;y making gross $425,000 a year and paying $150,000+ a year just in income taxes.

The government gives that for social programs and low income support programs like welfare and free dental, medical, prescription, food, clothing assistance, rental subsidies etc. to the poorer persons and families in our society.

If government uses money unwisely and there is always minimum 10% to 20% waste in the system than that is not higher income taxpaying citizens of Canada.

#147 Looney Baloney on 11.03.16 at 12:14 pm

Heh, the demorats wouldn’t even grant T2 a meeting with her highness, and yet their deplorable voters want to hop on the first bus to Canada if Trump wins. Why not run to Mexico instead before the wall is built?

https://wikileaks.com/podesta-emails/emailid/43382

#148 Mick McLean on 11.03.16 at 12:14 pm

45north claimed that housing prices in Toronto lost 10% of their value in the 1990’s. That is way low. The true figure is much higher like 20% for single detached (in areas like Leaside) and easily double for condos. I know cause I was there, my condo cost $117,000 and went as low as $65,000.

#149 Harbour on 11.03.16 at 12:21 pm

Watching oil?

Now it’s broke below $45

#150 Happening now on 11.03.16 at 12:24 pm

So the REBGV statistics can be called into doubt…”Frankenumber ” etc etc , but YOU push the BC government’s numbers on foreign buyers as gospel, even tho those numbers are collected via a firm filled out by realtors and are ” voluntary” only !!……the same Realtors who have failed to fill in Fintrac forms entirely !!!

The government’s numbers come from actual land registrations. The realtors’ house price index is secretly computed. Get a grip. — Garth

#151 Old Dog on 11.03.16 at 12:34 pm

#139 Damifino

Stop bringing in those pesky laws of physics, you’re just muddying the fantasy.

#152 bdy sktn on 11.03.16 at 12:45 pm

#136 Investors Friend
…………
Some little snowflake being offended is not part of this definition …lacking knowledge, information, or awareness about something in particular.
“they were ignorant of astronomy”
synonyms: without knowledge of, unaware of, unconscious of, oblivious to, incognizant of, unfamiliar with, unacquainted with, uninformed about, ill-informed about, unenlightened about, unconversant with, inexperienced in/with, naive about, green about.

Exactly the definition of people who post garbage here because they refuse to use Google.

You are ignorant (of monetary policy). I was rude and mean to you because ignorant comments have no place here.

Do better or go away.

#153 Victor V on 11.03.16 at 12:47 pm

Real estate agents caught breaking the rules on Marketplace’s hidden camera

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/real-estate-agents-caught-breaking-the-rules-on-marketplace-s-hidden-camera-1.3825841

“There’s a lot of money at stake and corruption is just all over the place,” says Josie Stern, a real estate agent who has practised in Toronto for more than 25 years.

#154 Context on 11.03.16 at 12:56 pm

The other day an affiliate of NBC displayed the election results for November 8th by mistake as they were getting ready for the big day and here is just the basic results.
HC 42% 41,765,317
DT 40% 40,124,438

HC 343 42%
DT 195 40%

Hillary becomes the President!

#155 Old Dog on 11.03.16 at 12:58 pm

#50 Jesse Hampson

I congratulate you on your savings ability, but I would suggest you get some investment advice. You money in your taxable accounts is making nothing when you take into account taxes and inflation. You have to be in the higher tax bracket and are giving a lot of money away.
6 million dollars is not a lot of money when you look at what it earns.

#156 IHCTD9 on 11.03.16 at 12:58 pm

So I had plans to replace my damaged air compressor with a like new used unit off Kijiji to avoid the retail tax on a new one. I had a good look at it last night, it’s repairable – I’m going to fix it here at work some evening. No cost, no tax.

I have also decided on a design for a heating stove that is a hybrid of sorts comprising the ability to easily burn sawdust/chips, or small hunks of wood. These fuels are at the bottom of the fuel chain and are least desirable as a fuel making them free 100% of the time in my area.

There is not a ton of tax money here to be saved – but I’ve already picked the low hanging fruit. I estimate a 750.00/yr minimum in cost savings, and 110.00 or so in taxes not given. The savings could double after 1 year of use depending on how it works out.

The total reductions just in taxes paid for 2016 will come in at about 3150.00. That’s just taxes – most of the reductions came from changes in routine, undoing lifestyle inflation and changing habits. Total dollar savings are much more.

I look forward to more incentive from Trudeau and Wynne in 2017 to keep the ball rolling. Arthur Laffer was right, at least with me he was.

#157 Souvereigninternational on 11.03.16 at 1:02 pm

@#141 MF on 11.03.16 at 11:31 am
#134 Souvereigninternational on 11.03.16 at 10:21 am
@#77 Margret
“If Toronto is a bad city, then why do over 250,000 newcomers call Toronto home every year?”
******************
How about THEY HAD NO OTHER/BETTER CHOICE sound for an answer.

-Nope. I was born in Toronto and have grown up with immigrants my whole life here in the GTA. Almost all find life here enjoyable. I wrote a post on this topic last blog update. Go read it.

MF

MF

***********************

Nope, back to you MF. It is simple only ultra rich have almost unlimited emigration choices. One could make life enjoyable in pretty shifty locales, but than again one would have to travel more, or even better live in other places to be able to compare.People who do don’t exhibit blind ignorant pride of a place or social group that they grew up within. Unless of course they want to be polite. And spare me your standard response of – if you don’t like it, why don’t you just leave. I rest my case.

#158 Doug in London on 11.03.16 at 1:17 pm

So, what’s all this talk about stocks being down? As of now, many are climbing back up again. Damn, I was hoping to scoop up some more early Black Friday sales!

Breaking Brexit. — Garth

#159 Smoking Man on 11.03.16 at 1:24 pm

#131 John Foster on 11.03.16 at 9:49 am
For Smoking Man:

http://bit.ly/2f4EAOX

Live it, thanks for making my day.

#160 Victor V on 11.03.16 at 1:29 pm

Rigged housing deals about to receive a whole lot of scrutiny

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/rigged-housing-deals-about-to-receive-a-whole-lot-of-scrutiny/article32645521/

During the CBC investigation, the Marketplace reporter and a colleague posed as a couple who were not represented by an agent, Mr. Kucey explains. The video shows violations of rules contained in the Real Estate and Business Brokers Act and its Code of Ethics.

“In every video that I saw the registrant was promising to do something that would be a clear breach of the act and code. The worst one featured a registrant who unabashedly said ‘I control the offer process. I’m in charge. I will block all other offers to make sure you get the property no matter what prices are being tendered.’”

In an interview, Mr. Kucey said RECO has submitted informal and formal requests to CBC to get copies of videos and the names of the registrants featured. He plans to press for those identities and possibly take the matter to the courts.

“It’s evidence of at least the intent to break the law,” he says of the videos he saw.

#161 Context on 11.03.16 at 1:31 pm

#139 Damifino:- I am all for new technology and inventions. There was this old woman in my chat room from Indiana who lived on a farm estate. She loved riding her bicycle but her legs were giving out so said no problem as want you to buy a conversion kit and find someone to put it together. She was zooming about those country roads with a smile on her face as converted her normal bicycle into a moped which is legal there as a 50CC for $175.00.

#162 Steve Smith on 11.03.16 at 1:32 pm

Jesse Sampson and family are really paying 55%+ of all their income in income taxes, property taxes indirectly through paying rent, H.S.T and all other types of taxes from gasoline taxes to liquor taxes etc.

I would not be surprised that they are paying yearly $200,000 in total taxes. They already contribute plenty to the poor,. low income Canadians as government gives most that money to them.

#163 Mark on 11.03.16 at 1:51 pm

“Toronto realtors say market has reached an ‘intense’ phase as suburbs take off”

Has about as much credibility as the Iraqi “Minister of Information” had with the bombs raining down on Baghdad in the background.

Canada some day will likely end up like Cyprus.

Canada controls its own currency, hence, has the ability to reliquefy the economy, including its financial institutions, “at will” (might be some devaluation thus associated against other currencies if it is a Canada-specific issue). Cyprus, being dependant on the euro, a currency over which they did not control, had no such ability.

The ONLY reason for the Clinton’s to have a private server

If you’ve ever travelled a lot while working for a major institution with very strict usage policies on things like email, you’d soon recognize the benefits of having a private server with one unified interface to it. I remember once being a seat-mate to the Minister of Health at the time, on a Toronto-Ottawa flight. She had literally 4 mobile devices she was carrying around. A real pain in the butt and even she admitted as such. One personal, one for Health Canada, another for Cabinet, and another for her role as MP. This was exactly what Hillary was ‘expected’ to do, but in the practical sense, juggling 4 devices, keeping the charged, etc., is a giant pain in the rear.

#164 Smoking Man on 11.03.16 at 1:57 pm

#146 Looney Baloney on 11.03.16 at 12:14 pm
Heh, the demorats wouldn’t even grant T2 a meeting with her highness, and yet their deplorable voters want to hop on the first bus to Canada if Trump wins. Why not run to Mexico instead before the wall is built?

https://wikileaks.com/podesta-emails/emailid/43382
…..

Butts tel number in that leak… Oh man I could have so much fun with this.

I’ll send it to Ezra from rebal media.

#165 jess on 11.03.16 at 2:11 pm

truth in advertising ?
https://consumerist.com/2016/11/03/wells-fargo-under-investigation-for-lying-to-investors-about-sales-practices/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
—————————
Debt flippers

Feds Go After “Massive, Illegal” Debt-Collection Operation

According to the complaint [PDF] filed this morning in federal court by the CFPB and NY AG Eric Schneiderman, the ran a trio of debt-buying and debt-collection companies — Delray Capital, Enhanced Acquisitions, and Northern Resolution Group — and also oversaw a network of at least 60 collection “shops” to collect on behalf of these companies.

The three main companies involved in the scheme acquired tens of millions of dollars in outstanding consumer debt, some of it from payday lenders. But according to the complaint, the companies had a policy of tacking on $200 to each individual debt they purchased, regardless of whether this additional money was allowed by applicable state laws. As a result, some debts were inflated by as much as 600%.”

https://consumerist.com/2016/11/02/feds-go-after-massive-illegal-debt-collection-operation/

===========

exposed by OffshoreAlert

Seventh British attorney struck off over Axiom Legal Financing Fund fraud
November 01, 2016 – Paul Stott has become the seventh British solicitor to be struck off due to involvement in the Cayman Islands-based Axiom Legal Financing Fund, which defrauded investors of more than £100 million before collapsing in 2012

Privilege Wealth takes down websites after OffshoreAlert exposé (then brings them back up)
October 20, 2016 by David Marchant

#166 Gong show RE Revealed by CBC on 11.03.16 at 2:38 pm

Maybe TREB and OREA will change some rules LOL! (Holds breath)

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/real-estate-agents-caught-breaking-the-rules-on-marketplace-s-hidden-camera-1.3825841

#167 jay on 11.03.16 at 2:55 pm

http://www.blogto.com/music/2016/11/mariah_carey_getting_1_million_for_free_toronto_concert/ Maybe she’ll take her money and buy one of those condo’s in T.O.

#168 jess on 11.03.16 at 3:16 pm

Real estate agents caught breaking the rules on Marketplace’s hidden camera
Regulator says findings raise ‘grave concern’

By Saman Malik, Tiffany Foxcroft, CBC News Posted: Nov 03, 2016 10:53 AM ET Last Updated: Nov 03, 2016 2:09 PM ET
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/real-estate-agents-caught-breaking-the-rules-on-marketplace-s-hidden-camera-1.3825841

#169 BMc in the OKV on 11.03.16 at 3:17 pm

” #38 Ogopogo on 11.02.16 at 8:20 pm

Where is the “it’s different here” special snowflakes now? ”

All moved to Kelowna, so it seems. :-/

#170 InvestorsFriend on 11.03.16 at 3:20 pm

Google versus independent thought

#151 bdy sktn on 11.03.16 at 12:45 pm said to me:

Exactly the definition of people who post garbage here because they refuse to use Google.

You are ignorant (of monetary policy). I was rude and mean to you because ignorant comments have no place here.

Do better or go away.

**************************************
You must be newer here. Google often checks with me when it comes to investment analysis, not the other way around.

#171 Victor V on 11.03.16 at 3:23 pm

“At Veritas housing conference. Porter Collins (Big Short fame): You’re out of your mind to plow money into CDN housing construction now”

https://twitter.com/alex_macdonald/status/794220948836782080

#172 Smartalox on 11.03.16 at 4:04 pm

Is it just me, or does the DETACHED home price in the REBGV chart for the Residential Average Sale Price (last page in the monthly stats package here):

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV%20Stats%20Package%20October%202016.pdf

look a lot like the investor sentiment chart that Garth had up on the site a few days ago, and linked here:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/EMOTIONS.png?x64811

Looks to me like we might be headed into the ‘Bull Trap’ phase, and I think that I heard some PR flack from the RE industry characterize the 38.8% drop in sales last month as ‘a Return to Normal’ sales levels.

Hmm… what comes next?

Oh. That’s a long way down…

#173 Realtors are scum on 11.03.16 at 4:31 pm

Realtors need to be regulated. Garth can you point out who in the government is can write to? We should all write. This is unacceptable and the industry needs to be regulated. Just sickening http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/real-estate-agents-caught-breaking-the-rules-on-marketplace-s-hidden-camera-1.3825841

#174 Realtors are scum on 11.03.16 at 4:37 pm

Sales in Toronto is not doing well. Sales numbers are either fake or purposely overstated and then compared to last year’s revised numbers. The whole industry need a major overhaul. The industry needs to be opened up. Sales and all . With so many money at stake how can the government allow this?

#175 Context on 11.03.16 at 4:38 pm

The FBI is releasing the details of the Clinton investigation online now as have seen it. This is becoming nasty but love to read the dirt.

#176 MF on 11.03.16 at 4:56 pm

#156 Souvereigninternational on 11.03.16 at 1:02 pm

I don’t understand your comment sorry.

I said, based on 33 years of growing up in Toronto, the tons of immigrants i have known have done well. Those coming from war zones appreciate the peace and lack of tribalism. Those who are rich appreciate the lack of corruption in the government.

All seem to enjoy their time and do well.

That was my point.

MF

#177 GFD on 11.03.16 at 5:33 pm

Liberal Party Fundraisers Accused of Real Estate Fraud

https://betterdwelling.com/liberal-party-fundraisers-accused-of-real-estate-fraud/

#178 GFD on 11.03.16 at 6:01 pm

#172 Realtors are scum
Relax dude, nothing you can do. This is all part of insanity. You don’t know what fraud is committed in mortgage industry alone. In Canada fraud is everywhere. Not enough time or manpower to extinguish it. Even the enforcer is corrupted.

#179 NoName on 11.03.16 at 6:09 pm

#36 IHCTD9 on 11.02.16 at 8:15 pm

I don’t want to see the engine that provides so much support for immigrants blow a connecting rod. I believe that there are limits to how many folks an enclave can support. Even a City for that matter.

That engine and that proverbial connecting start falling apart long time ago, since i am here i can almost with certainty say that no one is bothered repairing kupplung that connect proverbial engine to rest of moving parts so no forward motion is made. Its unfortunate driver is not aware or don’t care of this and gas pedal is pressed all the way down. engine revs Inertia and loud sound of hi revving engine give driver passenger false appearance of forward motion, but its just a matter of time before motorkopfdichtung, gummidichtung and gummischlauch start pissing coolant and engine goes to abrupt screeching stop when gummigelenk descintergrate…

You sound like you’ve succeeded through some adversity which is great.

I don’t know that i succeeded, but i am working on it, there were challenges, but I always considered my self very lucky, thing could be lot worse that they were.
Jobs 1,3 and 4 help from friends and community help
Jobs 2,5 and 6 i was lucky that i was interviewed by very smart people that could see past my awkwardness.

#180 Brokerizer on 11.03.16 at 6:19 pm

This is in french so few of you will understand, so I’ll translate:

Comparing to 2015, there’s been an increase of 17% amazing percents of house borrowers getting notices from the banks, in Quebec. Notices that warn the borrower that he/she has missed payments or has broken a clause. Something like that.

Most people here care for Vancouver and Toronto, but I hope Garth can read this and write a little something in his next blog.

It’s a turning point:

http://www.lesaffaires.com/blogues/joanie-fontaine/bond-important-mauvaises-creances-immobilieres-octobre/591268

#181 GFD on 11.03.16 at 6:49 pm

Now you wonder people are fed up with fraud and scum? 20 bucks Clinton sees the inside of jail before she is to step into the oval office. Trump will declare the next president of the USA. Not because it makes more sense, but because ppl are fed up.

They been holding all evidence (ea. Clinton Cash) for the power of the last minute. That info was released just before the democratic convention and pressure keeps on building. Neanderthal did not have the power to defeat her there so they lay low and wait for round 2, the most powerful time.

Corruption to the max, garnishing the #1 office and hiding all the dirt! And a lead FBI investigator finds his wife on the charity council and gets almost 500K from the Clinton’s…

US is looking like Rome, what is going to be their final undoing that topples them. An other revolution, the suits of government and Wall St. against the blue collar worker? Same in Canada. Our new deficit? That’s pure insanity. Will it ever stop? Do you realize that approximately 70 percent of any government project go to administration…. This is to manifest more money into the pockets of the party as it generates more government. All the same post WW2 economics. The government taking on more debt to fill more pockets and create phony economic job numbers… Then you got the realtor scum just doing the same. . . . .frankenumders. Bond markets are now tabling the value of the Canadian dollar to obscure financial investment. This is a path to exorbitant inflation, a lower dollar and higher taxes…. We’re more fuxed than ever.

#182 Smoking Man on 11.03.16 at 11:39 pm

Sky pllots

#183 Greg on 11.04.16 at 1:13 pm

The Marketplace piece is amazing to me.

I don’t find that fraud can occur amazing. What I find amazing is that so many sellers take a back seat and let it occur!!

I would never let my realtor represent both sides?? Simply demand that they recuse themselves, if they argue then you’ve got your answer on how trustworthy they are. Terminate the contract on grounds they won’t give you fair representation.

Actually I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, the majority of people invest with [email protected] so of course they believe everything their told.

#184 brett on 11.04.16 at 1:28 pm

Just read that the Calgary jobless rate hit 10.2 percent.

This is the ‘official’ rate and does not count those that have given up looking or have/will moved away.

Yet the Calgary Real Estate Board keeps putting out these wonderful missives about how great the local real estate market is doing. It isn’t. We are sitting back watching prices decline. Ross Kay is absolutely right.

Why on earth would anyone believe what an organization funded by and for real estate industry has to say about the state of the market? Let alone have any faith in their disciplinary process. It starts and ends with severely beating the transgressor across the wrist with an overcooked piece of pasta. Last time I checked a henhouse guarded by a fox there were no hens left in the house.