The head fake

sammy-modified

Well, no wonder Ontario decided not to impose a BC-style, Chinese Dudes tax on real estate. There aren’t any. Well, not many. At least when it comes to North America’s (by far) biggest and fastest-expanding condo market.

So the data’s in. No government stats or realtor Frankenumbers, but private-sector evidence collected from developers and brokerages representing a quarter of all new condo apartment unit sales. Are you prepared to be shocked? Good. You’ll have to wait one paragraph.

The Toronto condo market is Trumpian in size. About 30,000 units will sell this year, and in the third quarter sales roared ahead more than 22% year/year. The reason is simple. With detacheds fetching an average $1.2 million, they were unaffordable to the average moister even before the MST became the law of the land. The average GTA condo price is now $415,600 (up 9.6% in the past year) – which means this market alone is worth $12.5 billion annually. Yuge.

Who’s buying these things?

According to research firm Urbanation, it sure ain’t foreigners. In total non-Canadian buyers accounted for just 5% of sales, with the other 95% going to moist little beavers. But here’s a key breakdown of that number – 52% of those domestic buyers have no intention of living in the condo units, picking them up instead as speculative or investment properties. Only 43% of trades were to locals who plan to live there.

The survey was conducted between July and last month, and included only projects that were in development – pre-construction, being built, or recently completed (this is the hottest part of market). It’s the first time this kind of data has been available.

So, you wanna blame some group for pushing prices up seven times the inflation rate? Go ahead. It’s every fool out there buying a condo from a developer thinking she’ll just rent it out (at a loss), then flip for a taxless capital gain. Man, does she have a few surprises coming.

price-chrt-modified

$   $   $

That certainly was an interesting Friday.

Things looked peachy for the Dems at breakfast when Washington announced the latest growth number. Wow. Just a hair under 3%, shutting down all the doomers and Repuglicans insisting America’s heading for recession and (maybe) collapse thanks to the nasty idiots who run the Fed and the government.

That 2.9% pop in GDP, by the way, is the biggest in two years, and more than double the growth recorded in the previous quarter. It sure added fuel to the argument that the central bank will undoubtedly raise its key rate in early December and, if the machine keeps on rolling, perhaps twice more in 2017. It also supported the prevailing pollsters’ view that Hillary Clinton has this thing locked up.

But then came lunch.

Word that the FBI has re-opened its probe into her government emails/private server thingy rocked the Presidential campaign, with Trumpian crowds chanting, “Lock her up, lock her up.” While that’s never going to happen (of course), the news was enough to reduce her odds of being POTUS by about 10% in just ten minutes. According to legendary polls analyst Nate Silver, this could drop her magic number to 68%, while Trump has bounced from a low of 12% back into the twenty range.

Could this be Brexit, Part Deux?

While a Trump win is statistically remote, since the US system isn’t based on the popular vote (as was Brexit), the odds of a Clinton loss have climbed.

What would that mean for financial markets? Your portfolio?

Probably similar to Brexit I. In other words, markets would react badly to being surprised, with lots of bets having been made on an outcome that failed to materialize – causing an avalanche of selling to cover positions. Volatility would spike. The US$ would likely falter, causing other currencies and commodities to rise. Given that equity markets are near record levels, you could expect a 5-6% whack in the first few days, while money flowed like a swollen river into safe havens such as US Treasuries.

Also like Brexit, it would be short-lived. After all, whomever’s in the White House, the economy won’t change, corporations won’t make less money, hiring won’t stop, and people won’t quit buying cars and houses. Investors would adapt, in the knowledge that it’s really Congress and its bureaucracy that runs America.

Investors with a balanced, globally-diversified portfolio would hardly notice – just as they did with the UK vote. When stocks were down 6%, their portfolios were off about 1%, then quickly recovered. Those who didn’t panic lost nothing. Those who got their investment advice from this pathetic blog’s comment section, not so much.

But, of course, Trump can’t win. Unless he does.

166 comments ↓

#1 Jason on 10.28.16 at 6:52 pm

Foreign investors would also rush into US Treasuries if Trump got elected. Hence the USD would rise. That is the paradox of being THE ENTIRE WORLD’s reserve currency!

#2 Marcus on 10.28.16 at 6:52 pm

Breaking News! Trump just won the election. FBI reopens the investigation about Hillary Clinton and classified e-mails being hacked on her unsecured home server. Thank you Kim.com!! He showed governments around the world how to hack into and access her bleached 50,000 e-mails on the NSA server in Utah. She is done.

#3 Tee'ing off the crash on 10.28.16 at 6:54 pm

So which is more important for changing the market – the October 17th rule where new buyers with less than 20% down must qualify at the 4.64% rate; or the November 30th rule where low ratio loans must qualify at the 4.64% rate?

The October 17th rules seems to affect 20-30% of the market no?

#4 Randy on 10.28.16 at 6:55 pm

Get rid of your shades, the future ain’t that bright.

#5 Steve-oh on 10.28.16 at 6:55 pm

He might win…

#6 Nemesis on 10.28.16 at 6:59 pm

#FridayMischief,Or… #NotSoPoliteCanadians… #It’sBetterInBC… #No,Really!…

[CBC] – First Nations chief insults premier and BC Hydro CEO over Site C: Roland Willson goes ‘digital’ on Site C proponents

…West Moberly First Nation Chief Roland Willson has lashed out at Premier Christy Clark and BC Hydro CEO Jessica McDonald in a Facebook post calling them “evil bitches”…

…In the comments section, Willson posted a photo of a cartoon middle finger with the caption, “Hey Christy and Jessica!”…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/first-nations-chief-insults-premier-and-bc-hydro-ceo-over-site-c-1.3824724

[ColonialTimes] – Nanaimo councillor to mayor: “Bite me”

…Asked about his response to Councillor Fuller saying “bite me,” Nanaimo Mayor Bill McKay said: “I understand that was after he called me a ‘s—head.’ ”…

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/nanaimo-councillor-to-mayor-bite-me-1.2379927

#7 Smartalox on 10.28.16 at 7:01 pm

The gig is up: the Russians are feeding faked documents to Wikileaks, and the Trump campaign is eating it up – with the candidate repeating the propaganda as fact.

New Clinton emails turned up as a result of the investigation into Anthony Weiner’s sexting allegations? Just more grist for the mill.

Naturally, the ‘new’ allegations are fed to the media on a Friday afternoon, in an effort to keep the story in the press all weekend. Watch for a retraction or an ‘All Clear’ on Monday or Tuesday, once Trump’s gone and done something else stupid to further derail his campaign.

#8 Life among the Stars on 10.28.16 at 7:01 pm

The really remarkable weird thing is that it was Bill that married the Wiener!!!

The whole US has become a bizarre “reality” TV show.

Four years of the Trumpenator would be just hilarious – which is why he might actually win. Free comedy.

#9 Andrew Woburn on 10.28.16 at 7:02 pm

Relief from soaring (US) home prices isn’t coming anytime soon –

“One might wonder if these high prices reflect growing demand that could soon elicit a wave of construction that would prove our forecasts wrong. We find, however, that high prices are concentrated in markets where supply is constrained by geography or regulation, suggesting there may be little room for additional construction.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/relief-from-soaring-home-prices-isnt-coming-anytime-soon-174136415.html

#10 The real Kip on 10.28.16 at 7:02 pm

If Bozo were running against Ronald McDonald Americans would have a better choice.

#11 prairiegopher on 10.28.16 at 7:06 pm

Does anyone remember what today is??? It was 36 years ago today that Daddy Trudeau introduced the NEP, lest we forget!!!!

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.28.16 at 7:07 pm

Oh to be a fly on the wall when Hillary got THAT news…..

#13 MSM-Free Zone on 10.28.16 at 7:08 pm

“…..52% of those domestic buyers have no intention of living in the condo units, picking them up instead as speculative or investment properties……….”
_________________________

Wondering if those moist 52-percenters will be declaring their capital gains (non-primary residences) and rental incomes on their tax returns next year?

What, those two minor inconveniences weren’t highlighted in the glossy condo ‘investment’ brochures handed out at the coffee-and-muffin promos?

#14 WalMark of sadkatoon on 10.28.16 at 7:09 pm

Toronto real estate price increases are unsustainable

#15 Chan on 10.28.16 at 7:12 pm

DELETED

#16 conan on 10.28.16 at 7:19 pm

I do not think it would a short lived sell off. The first sell off I agree with you.
Then Trump starts talking…. She is going to jail!!!!! Water board team etc…. that equals another sell off.

” Build the wall” or ” F Canada and their goofy resource based economy.”…… that equals another sell off.

It will be a never ending sell off with this guy in charge.

#17 Victor V on 10.28.16 at 7:19 pm

Even one of Trump’s fiercest critics realizes the significance of the FBI’s announcement:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/441552/fbi-hillary-clinton-email-server-investigation-reopened-over-new-emails

#18 Doug t on 10.28.16 at 7:21 pm

Both of those losers doom the States in different ways. I say bring on Grump and let the clowns and cronies in Washington go ape sh*t. The empire down there is having a Romanesque time of decay – lets just for the love of all that’s holy push it off a cliff already. I would love to see Hitlery locked up and have all those self important cows, in positions they believe make them important, finally realize they are NOT above the average citizen. 2017 is going to make 2016 look like an episode of The Friendly Giant.

RATM

#19 Where's the real detached 416 data on 10.28.16 at 7:26 pm

Garth, what most people want to see is the foreign buyer /non resident / students of millionaire parents from, ahem, China.. detached data for 416 and 905 since 2015…. Where is that? This July to October condo stuff means nothing compared to detached.

Also, guess who bought my friends detached for 1.2 mill on North York? Chinese student. No offers for 2 weeks and then the saviour came along, true story.

Also, 2 houses bought in my hood Don Mills recently for 2.9 million and 1.7 million, both had small Chinese brokerages listed as buyer agents. I’d like to see the residency info on those buyers. Both homes priced with lucky 8’s in them.

Let’s see the real data… For at least the last couple years.

#20 Bat Flipper on 10.28.16 at 7:29 pm

Don’t single out condos, this is done with semis, detached, townhouses as well. People hear ‘quick buck’, they jump on it like a Boomer on a Harley.

We all heard the news ‘make 6 figures a year investing in real estate’. Just ask Scott McGillivray, realty star property magnate. He will tell you to buy as many houses as possible and use the equity you earn to buy more homes. REIN members know.

Landlording ain’t for everyone though, and some people still want the quick buck. Buy a home, say it’s your prime res, and dump it after some appreciation. Seems too easy.

Only problem is that if there is a steady decline in the market, these speccers will exacerbate the drop.

This is where BC vacant home tax is going to do some wonders bringing BC prices back to earth.

#21 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 7:31 pm

Come on Garth, you know there is a bit of alien intervention in the US elections, that’s why Podesta was so curious about it.

But in a double header, the fanatical feminazis are going to go completely insane. History will now read it was a Weiner that destroyed Hillarys bit for the white house.

Ouch!

How ironic.

#22 pathcontrolmonk on 10.28.16 at 7:32 pm

Meanwhile Justin appoints RE shill extraordinaire Yuen Pau Woo as shiny new senator for BC.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/trudeau-fills-b-c-senate-appointment-with-yuen-pao-woo

#23 Koshy Alex on 10.28.16 at 7:34 pm

Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system finds

An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/donald-trump-will-win-the-election-and-is-more-popular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html

#24 Sideshow Rob on 10.28.16 at 7:35 pm

Wouldn’t it be something if the witch gets arrested on Halloween. I wonder if the Dems have a valid plan B.

#25 jess on 10.28.16 at 7:38 pm

securities-based lending

https://www.ft.com/content/419c860a-54fa-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef
https://www.thealertinvestor.com/a-dangerous-game-using-your-stock-portfolio-as-collateral/

Stock-Based Loan Programs: What Investors Need to Know
http://www.finra.org/investors/alerts/stock-based-loan-programs-what-investors-need-know

here’s the warm and cozy ad
https://boltonglobal.com/doc/Loan_Advance_Brochure.pdf

#26 Dano on 10.28.16 at 7:39 pm

Discouraged and fascinated, such a weird place… concerned for us all – Woh Canada!

Dan
Alberta

Ps. any resources on “don’t be a dumb ass gold bug” could use some thoughtful direction… help me not switch over the the dark side LOL …Garth, you exude confidence on the topic – i’d like to feel the same way.

Hope y’all have a blast this Halloween, probably no snow :)

#27 Mel in Victoria on 10.28.16 at 7:39 pm

Well Garth,nobody knows what the markets will do after the election, but that may be the least of our concerns.

I believe no matter who wins the election on November the 8th, the other party will not agree with the outcome. If Hillary wins, Donald will blame it on the biased media, vote rigging or other reasons. He’s likely correct that these factors will have some impact.

If Donald wins, notice I didn’t say the Republicans because most Republicans have already abandoned Trump; if Donald wins, Hillary will blame the Russians, Wikileaks, Snowden, etc. In effect, Donald is, in himself, a third party because he doesn’t represent the Republicans. In actual fact, the Democrats and Republicans are different in name only with both parties representing and beholding to the long time ruling establishment..not the people..

So, in truth, it’s The Donald, along with “The Deplorables” against the American establishment. I wonder how many people see themselves as part of the deplorable group? Are they as numerous as the people who earlier this year voted for Brexit? ALL media got that wrong, just as they got the last B.C. Provincial election wrong.

Perhaps the polls are wrong again? Most of the polls done the past decade or so are not as accurate as prior to cell phones because it’s now quite difficult/impossible to do random analysis like they used to using the phone book..

I don’t think people in the United States and elsewhere have any idea of what, in my opinion, is likely to happen once the winner is declared late that night of 8th of November, or early the next day. I don’t believe it’ll matter whether the win is by a large or narrow margin. The result, immediately, will be the same..Anger, violence and likely widespread riots!

Should Donald win, riots will break out where there are large black communities such as Flint Michigan, Montgomery Alabama, Savannah Georgia, Detroit, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Memphis, Miami, and on and on..

But if Hillary, the Democrats win, I think it’s very unpredictable where outbreaks of violence will occur. If the the pejorative “deplorables’, as characterized by Hillary, are widespread across the USA, the people who are fed up with The Establishment, then it will become very ugly folks..very ugly and I see riots in many cities across the USA.

The result? Will be the same! Doesn’t matter who wins the election. The emotions on both sides are so high, so unprecedentedly intense, it’s pretty much inevitable,widespread violence will result. And if it gets really bad, martial law could be declared and the social fabric of the USA may start to unravel..and will eventually have global implications..

If Donald wins, there will be huge media coverage blaming him personally for the violence. If Hillary wins, they’ll do their best to minimize it because they don’t want to let people know what’s really happening..and how bad things really are..

I believe the world will change for many people after November the 8th..

I truly hope I’m wrong about the riots..

#28 Alex on 10.28.16 at 7:40 pm

Garth, what is the percentage breakdown of non-permanent residents buying detached homes in the city ? 5 percent as well ?

#29 Paul on 10.28.16 at 7:41 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/27/uk-economy-shrugs-off-brexit-uncertainty-with-05-growth

#30 Swanson on 10.28.16 at 7:44 pm

5% eh? So much for the fear of BC’s 15% tax driving foreign investors to other places in Canada.

#31 Blacksheep on 10.28.16 at 7:47 pm

“According to legendary polls analyst Nate Silver, this could drop her magic number to 68%, while Trump has bounced from a low of 12% back into the twenty range.” – Garth
————————————
Yes, Nate and his 538 blog…Of course Hillary is in, because 95% of electors are ‘chosen’ for the electoral college, not elected = system decides for the masses cause they’re to ingnant to be trusted.

But here’s the trouble:

What happens if Trump landslides this be-otch, forcing the system to explain to the herd that their vote is irrelevant and is really just more of suggestion?

I mean apple pie, baseball and democracy are American institutions that the US military takes great pride in spreading around the planet. How will the peeps react when they get slapped in the face with the fact they actually have ZERO say in who the next PotUS is to be and never really did?

This won’t end well….

Where have I heard that before?

#32 No Money Down on 10.28.16 at 7:48 pm

I remember too in Vancouver when developer and private sector data showed that foreign buyers were only a few percent of the market. I think it was last May.

#33 LL on 10.28.16 at 7:50 pm

…”Well, no wonder Ontario decided not to impose a BC-style, Chinese Dudes tax on real estate. There aren’t any”….

What a mistake!

#34 pathcontrolmonk on 10.28.16 at 7:52 pm

As to “revelations” about emails, puhleeez… you can put your schadenfreude back in your hat.

Media organizations reporting that FBI is “reopening” email investigation is inaccurate as the case was never closed.

Translation of Comey’s letter:
We had a closed matter.
We received some new information.
We are reviewing it.
I’m informing Congress.

#35 VanMan on 10.28.16 at 7:54 pm

Regarding the 416 condo’s, I’m sure it’s the same mentality as out here in the 604 – that being AirBnb.

The mentality is buy it and list it… where most only calculate monthly mortgage vs. monthly rent income to ensure it looks as though they are profitable. This mindset along with the bragging to others is what’s driving this false investment strategy. Closing, legal, insurance, etc. for some reason fail to factor into the equations. Others hear about these windfall rental properties and than run to the bank to do the same. It’s perpetual and it’s a massive exposure in the market.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again – I know many, many people who have purchased multiple condos in the past few years with the sole intention of listing them on Airbnb. There are also many that I know that take out several rental leases in their name, boyfriend’s name, girlfriend’s name, dog’s name, etc. and then list them on AirBnb as well.

I understand the risks associated with this…they sure don’t. Believe me it’s happening and it’s a huge factor on inventories.

I’m also aware of groups that have banded together to set up fund pools (as legal entities) specifically to buy as many condos as possible to list on the site. I know this because many of them are friends of mine.

Scary stuff. Similar to the meme that’s been hammered home on this blog over the years, it’s all fine until it isn’t.

#36 SWL on 10.28.16 at 7:55 pm

Trump can totally, win, but I also smell something fishy with those electronic voting machines. I have been looking well past what the MSM has put out for a long time now, which makes things like this much easier to understand. If the electronic voting machines are legit why not have a third party look at the source code? There can’t be more that 100 lines of code for a simple 2 person vote.

Just try to have a closer look though. Not going to happen.

Either way, whoever wins the election, we all lose. There will be no winners. As much as I dislike Trump, I do like the fact that he has opened up Pandora’s box with regards to the masses finally understanding just what a corrupt and disgusting special interest group the US political system has morphed into over the past 50 years.

Washington has literally become cancer to humanity with Hilary as their new spokeswoman.

This election has proven one thing though. America is an empire circling the drain. Hopefully their ‘leaders’ will have the dignity to peacefully throw in the towel.

#37 Scully on 10.28.16 at 7:57 pm

Looks like Hillary is getting more trouble from ANOTHER philandering husband, Anthony Weiner! Now, you didn’t here this from me but it turns out he and his wife Huma were apparently sharing a computer which Huma used for forwarding emails Hillary. The FBI found the emails while investigating the Weiner. It may be the case that most or all of those emails are duplicates that have already been turned over by Clinton, at least that’s what my barista says. My question is: Could the FBI secretly be conspiring to protect Hillary from her rightful indictment and rigging the election for her, OR is the FBI deliberately timing its actions and releasing damaging reports to rig the election against her? It’s just too hard to keep up with the crazy conspiracy theories. Maybe this is Smoking Man’s area of expertise! ;-)

#38 Mark on 10.28.16 at 8:01 pm

“Foreign investors would also rush into US Treasuries if Trump got elected”

I wouldn’t be so sure. Trump has pledged to ‘restructure’ the debt. “restructure” is usually a synonym for default, at least a partial default at that. Treasuries probably would be sold, if not on the fear of a Trump ‘restructuring’, then on the fear of protectionism and rising risk to the US economy.

Toronto real estate price increases are unsustainable

And non-existent since 2013.

#39 the other white meat (pork) on 10.28.16 at 8:02 pm

Hillary is slicker than “Teflon Don” Gotti, and harder to catch than a greased piglet at the county fair. She’ll worm her way out of this one too.

Obama was a disappointment to those who were soft headed enough to believe in the whole hope/change mantra, God only knows what the next four years will look like or what they can do to top this year’s amazing sideshow. Always entertaining when it’s someone else’s country going through the ringer.

#40 TurnerNation on 10.28.16 at 8:04 pm

Q. What do you call a Track6er?

A. Someone with chit for trains.

#41 El Presidente Trump on 10.28.16 at 8:04 pm

You certainly are coming around to my reign Gartho. Did you see the USDMXN jump today..!!! they believe in the WALL.

I’ve got this in the bag. Thank-you Wiener

Nafta is toast.. Oh well.. Keystone is a go though… but ya gotta pay or you get a WALL too..

#42 Context on 10.28.16 at 8:06 pm

Gee, this election is going to the dogs.

#43 Suede on 10.28.16 at 8:18 pm

Markets are factoring a Trump win. Well, market makers anyway.

Fed preparing to raise rates. Just once to test the waters. Then they will be too late when the economy heats up to catch up.

USD will go bananas next year.

#44 Shane on 10.28.16 at 8:19 pm

#13 MSM-Free Zone on 10.28.16 at 7:08 pm

Wondering if those moist 52-percenters will be declaring their capital gains (non-primary residences) and rental incomes on their tax returns next year
//////////////

Good luck. They will be a rare minority. No one in the Vancouver region declares either.

So much tax lost. In the 10’s of billions lost in Metro Vancouver alone.

#45 BS on 10.28.16 at 8:21 pm

Word that the FBI has re-opened its probe into her government emails/private server thingy rocked the Presidential campaign

It is all part of the Clinton plan. They know the emails will come back to haunt Hillary when she becomes president and the republican’s start an impeachment process or if Trump wins he has a special prosecutor go after her. The plan now is to let the FBI start an investigation so Obama can pardon her when he leaves office. The Clinton machine at work.

#46 Dave on 10.28.16 at 8:27 pm

So does mean steady decline in prices or xmas crash?

The new year will be sobering…..I do believe.

#47 Mark M. on 10.28.16 at 8:27 pm

Nearly a third of that staggering 2.9% number is a record soybean harvest exported to make up for a spoiled crop in South America, a one off. Garth already knew this, just figured it wasn’t important.

So then 2.9% GDP growth. The Federal Reserve began telling us two months ago, “the case for a rate hike has strengthened.” Then they failed to hike weeks later.

Last month, we were told “politics do not enter into our discussions” by several Fed officials. They went on to reassure us that “every meeting is live.”

So given all of this, plus the desire just two months ago for two rate hikes, we should expect a hike next week, right?

What reason could they possibly give for not hiking next week and leaving the potential for a second hike this year in December?

They wanted four hikes nine months ago. Two months ago they made it seem like two were coming. Now they have a chance to do it, so why won’t they?

No rate hikes coming. Rate cuts before you know it. Soybeans are not emerging technology.

As Garth would say, “get a grip.”

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.28.16 at 8:34 pm

I was trying to find a reason for all the political insanity.
Blog Dogs…… only 18 days til the next Full Moon.

I cant blame the agressive political partisan bickering on lunacy…..
Stupidity?
Jealousy?
Ignorance?
Fluoride?
All of the above?

Interesting times……

So anybody got $40,000 for two tickets behind home plate in Chicago on Sunday night?

#49 IHCTD9 on 10.28.16 at 8:37 pm

I’ve decided that 2017 will be the year of government tax and fee avoidance.

I have kicked things off by taking my toy (third) vehicle off the road to avoid another 128.00 (or more) annual sticker fee, insurance fee, and taxes thereof. This vehicle will be sold and the proceeds invested into an RRSP if there’s room, otherwise a TFSA.

This winter will see a trial rocket stove built with a boiler coil and testing on scrap wood for fuel. Goal is to cut my heating bill in half, and thereby my heating bill taxes in half. Also the need for a new air compressor will be filled by a “like new” used unit off Kijiji instead of new retail – tax free. I have also just picked up a new to me mower to replace my Simplicity Broadmoor as the hydrostatic unit may have only a year or two left. The mower was free (no taxes) needing minor repair, it will be mothballed until its day arrives.

I will continue pondering other realistic options to further disappear from the rank and file government revenue generators…

#50 Victor V on 10.28.16 at 8:42 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/lawsuit-house-private-school-1.3821361

A failed real estate transaction has landed in B.C. Supreme Court with a Vancouver woman’s claim she offered to buy a $6.7 million home as part of what she thought was a deal to gain her daughter a place in one of the city’s most prestigious private schools.

In a notice of civil claim, Mei Han claims an acquaintance who owned a home opposite York House offered to broker an “alternative arrangement” which would see Han buy the property in order to lend or lease it to the school.

As a quid pro quo, Han claims the acquaintance — Lili Song — told her Han’s daughter Olivia would get a much-coveted spot in York’s Grade 4 class.

#51 The Technical Analyst (aka A Canadian Abroad) on 10.28.16 at 8:43 pm

I fear the markets have discounted a Trump win a little too much, just like the “leave vote” for BREXIT. Yes, Brexit didn’t hurt balanced North American portfolios much, but the shock only lasted a week. If it went on, yes, it COULD have been a Leman EU moment.

A Trump win won’t hurt portfolios in the long run, LOW interest rates will, infact, high interest rates will as well. I didn’t see it mentioned here, nor in the media, but Thursday’s biggest bond sell off was the BIGGEST in history. Bond outflows from US treasures set back bond ETF’s -7% in just one day.

That’s the real portfolio enemy, not Trump or (gawd-forbid) Hillary.

#52 WalMark of sadkatoon on 10.28.16 at 8:43 pm

Watch for a retraction or an ‘All Clear’ on Monday or Tuesday, once Trump’s gone and done something else stupid to further derail his campaign.

That’s the sad thing

Trump has done literally everything to f-up his campaign and the sad thing is that, against any other candidate, he would have been buried a long long time ago

For the race to be as tight as it is, says something about Clinton. And nothing good!

#53 WalMark of sadkatoon on 10.28.16 at 8:46 pm

#9 Andrew Woburn on 10.28.16 at 7:02 pm
Relief from soaring (US) home prices isn’t coming anytime soon

Yup. When Gartho mentioned buying US real estate over half a decade ago I bought em by the bushel! The collapse of the CAD$ has been gravy

#54 WalMark of sadkatoon on 10.28.16 at 8:51 pm

#38 Mark on 10.28.16 at 8:01 pm

I would be concerned if your calls 4 yrs ago on gold, deflation, barrick, or the CAD$ weren’t so wrong

#55 nonplused (hic) on 10.28.16 at 8:56 pm

Time to get used to it Garth, Trump will win.

See here is the thing: The MSM strategy to declare the election already over is not having it’s desired affect. It was supposed to discourage Trump voters from showing up because Hillary has already won the election. But instead it’s more likely to reduce the number of Hillary supports who show up well because the election is over, my candidate won, and my kid has soccer. But I can assure you that every one of those 20’s, 40’s and 50’s of thousands of people who waited in line to see Trump are voting regardless the predicted outcome. Bottom line: Prepare to be surprised on November 8th. It will be a much bigger surprise than Brexit.

Hillary is trying to bully her way into the Whitehouse. Unfortunately it’s causing mass resentment amongst the “deplorables”. And then there is the ongoing Wikileaks onslaught. Well nobody is really monitoring that but clearly anyone who has is not voting for Hillary.

And PS, even Julian Assange says his sources are not Russian. He’s not denying that the Russians may have hacked who knows what, but he says that is not where Wikileaks got the info. This was an inside job (most likely). Think “Edward Snowden”, not “Kremlin”. Hillary claims that 17 “intelligence agencies” have confirmed that Russians hacked everything (they have 17???) but only 2 have said “it may have been Russian”. Not “was”, but “may have been”. And we thought Trump was loose with the facts.

#56 espressobob on 10.28.16 at 8:58 pm

For what it’s worth, a Trump win could set up a nasty correction in all the major markets and provide a buying opportunity most of us won’t see again for a long, long time.

Most DIYers will panic promising to never invest in equities again while selling all their positions in the heat of emotion. Works every time.

Wouldn’t that be sweet?

#57 AR on 10.28.16 at 8:59 pm

Haha. Well you’re covered now no matter what happens. You predicted it.

Saw several articles today – advisors going to 20% cash. While the bond thing plays out. If you know bonds go down when rates go up and you know rates are going up, why not take advantage? Because you can’t time markets.

#58 WalMark of sadkatoon on 10.28.16 at 9:00 pm

The US economy is leaving Canada in the dust!

The US economy is BOOOMING!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/28/us-economy-grew-fastest-rate-last-quarter

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/28/us-economy-picks-up-speed-as-exports-surge/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/u-s-economic-growth-rebounds-on-boost-from-exports-inventories

The US$ will stay STRONG!

#59 WalMark of sadkatoon on 10.28.16 at 9:11 pm

Trump supporters found to be more knowledgeable about policy than Clinton voters

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/cortneyobrien/2016/10/28/trump-voters-found-to-be-more-knowledgeable-than-clinton-voters-in-new-poll-n2236992

Trump supporters wealthier than more educated

http://qz.com/679589/trump-voters-earn-more-and-are-better-educated-than-the-typical-american/

#60 Wrk.dover on 10.28.16 at 9:20 pm

I suppose Shillary was using her assistants laptop to send some pretty gnarly insider stuff to the Jackson Holers assuming no one would subpoena it. She was almost right until Anthony the Weiner used the little head to think again, on that same device.

Were she not such a selfish shell fish, she would drop out in time for the dems to organize their voters as to whom to insert in the write in slot.

If the kids write in the Bern, with my type of left writing E. Warren whilst the rich write Biden and so on, Trump is your new Uncle Sam with the highest vote count, even if it is under 50% like Skippy’s so called mandate was.

That speech Barry gave at the Kerry nomination messed her life for good. Which is the problem with her flogging a dead horse. She is wasting the worlds future with her stubborn resolve to not be the loser that she is.

Meanwhile if the electoral college stays in lockstep with her arrogance, keep in mind the Trump supporters have the vigilante mentality, and The NRA cards.

Watching Dallas on Friday nights was never this good!

#61 Ex-Cowtown on 10.28.16 at 9:20 pm

I doubt there will be any violence after Trump wins. Soros won’t bother to fund a bunch of losers. No more puddings and spankings for the snowflakes….

#62 Context on 10.28.16 at 9:27 pm

The developers in Toronto are rolling out pre-construction sale contracts for one bedroom condos in all parts of the city. It is impossible to compare prices from a few years ago without the square footage or layouts being provided. I detect the cartel has a base price of $300,000 which is all too common and the lowest was $200,000 for new projects; some were a bit over $300,000 but many below the $300,000 level. These are Mississauga prices going forward and don’t understand it for the life of me, but it must be more junk to buy.

#63 NoName on 10.28.16 at 9:38 pm

#109 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central on 10.28.16 at 12:36 am

let me sea did i get this right republicans are majority in senate and they aproved Senate approves women registering for the draft. what am i missing, help me to understand what is going on here here.
until today i never bother reading about us draft, so i red a bit and i found bold part very interesting. who need women when you have legal/ilegal imigrants and non citizen to pick first.
she needs no wall, wall will build it self.

now that o thought a bit she should use it slogan, lets have a war and and wall will build it self.

in July 2, 1980, President Carter issued Presidential Proclamation 4771 and re-instated the requirement that young men register with the Selective Service System.[71] At that time it was required that all males, born on or after January 1, 1960, register with the Selective Service System. Those now in this category are male U.S. citizens and male immigrant non-citizens between the ages of 18 and 25, who are required to register within 30 days of their 18th birthday.

https://goo.gl/Wrpb8S

///////

and this balancing act from ctvnews.ca maybe its new news satire sectin something…

“However, the agency is predicting that the market will start to balance itself out next year, with both sales and the pace of housing starts expected to decline next year before stabilizing in 2018.”

https://goo.gl/uuctTJ

#64 WUL on 10.28.16 at 9:50 pm

Last weekend the Conservative nomination in Calgary Heritage (Harper’s riding) took place. A buddy and former colleague (’83 onward) sought the nomination. Lost!! RIGGED!! I am taking it to the streets and going Full Idaho. Who is with me?

#65 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central on 10.28.16 at 9:56 pm

Trump is on the offensive in traditionally blue states, Michigan and Pennsylvania are in play apparently, which is unprecedented. Leading in Florida. Rumor has it that New Mexico is on the fence.

And leading lefty Michael Moore endorsed Trump just yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY-CiPVo_NQ

Even the institutions sense the groundswell of support and outrage against the entrenched ownership/leadership class, whose indifference and distance to the deplorable citizenry has opened a chasm reminiscent of Tsarist Russia. FBI director Comey senses this as well, he and other institutions are under immense pressure and have to ensure they land on the right side of history when the dust has cleared.

A lot of Canadians aren’t familiar with the concept of Freedom, since it’s not present in the national DNA, but the Americans still have the freedom to entirely disband and reshuffle the rot that exists in Washington.

#66 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 9:59 pm

#37 Scully on 10.28.16 at 7:57 pm
Looks like Hillary is getting more trouble from ANOTHER philandering husband, Anthony Weiner! Now, you didn’t here this from me but it turns out he and his wife Huma were apparently sharing a computer which Huma used for forwarding emails Hillary. The FBI found the emails while investigating the Weiner. It may be the case that most or all of those emails are duplicates that have already been turned over by Clinton, at least that’s what my barista says. My question is: Could the FBI secretly be conspiring to protect Hillary from her rightful indictment and rigging the election for her, OR is the FBI deliberately timing its actions and releasing damaging reports to rig the election against her? It’s just too hard to keep up with the crazy conspiracy theories. Maybe this is Smoking Man’s area of expertise! ;-)
…….

Ask your partner agent Fox Mulder for insights into conspiracies.

Me, I deal in reality.

I’m realising my book Nov 7th. One day before the big vote. Talk about confidence. The book will be mud if I’m wrong. How often does that happen?

Being a man with a big head from planet Nictonite is so underrated.

Never in my life have I felt so accomplished as I did today when I downloaded a beta version of my book. For the schooled I’m sure it’s no big deal, to a dyslexic it’s huge, I still can’t read that good. Thank god for Youtube.

Altho I can make millions every year with my eyes closed trading forex, that’s nothing compared to this achievement.

I’m so proud. can’t find words to describe it. I know goofs like James will chirp it up the ying yang. I don’t care. I did it bitches…
I finished it, fought the fear and slayed it huge.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics

#67 jay on 10.28.16 at 10:00 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/immigration-fraud-china-canada-1.3826942 Canada is a joke !!! That foreign buyer tax is going to change zero ,its so easy to become a P.R.

#68 Deplorable Dude on 10.28.16 at 10:12 pm

You asked for a miracle Theo….

I give you the

F
B
I

#69 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 10:15 pm

#67 jay on 10.28.16 at 10:00 pm
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/immigration-fraud-china-canada-1.3826942 Canada is a joke !!! That foreign buyer tax is going to change zero ,its so easy to become a P.R.
…..

Roomer has it on the web, your butts. If true, man up lay some pipe. line.

#70 WUL on 10.28.16 at 10:19 pm

And when I say “I am taking it to the streets.” I mean the leafy ones in my quiet suburban ‘hood in Southwest Calgary. Quietly. The neighbours are touchy. Mostly Presbyterian.

#71 Tony on 10.28.16 at 10:25 pm

Please Garth I can’t take this anymore. PLEASE no more trump post. The rest of you bloggers just wait a few more days. Stop talking about trump. If Trump really does what he says then the middle class will be very happy. I think democracy doesn’t exist. It’s a fairytale the elite tell the masses over and over until we believe it’s true even though it should be obvious there is none. Voted for by the people controlled by special interest groups and other vested interests. CONs are the most greedy taking everything while liberals throw crumbs. Rep and dem are almost identical in greed but the only difference rep Always have a war.

#72 NoName on 10.28.16 at 10:26 pm

#49 IHCTD9 on 10.28.16 at 8:37 pm

with some scrap 2×4, drill and some elbow grease i recommend that you make a paper log maker. no heat is better than free heat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVrKEgKckbU
#Save_A_Jack

#73 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 10:26 pm

Teaser from the book Page 30

The entire atmosphere is throbbing to the start of Sorrow, vibrations so hard you can see the windows pulsating. The old lady slowly floats to up 30 feet to the rhythm of Sorrow. She’s now directly over the strip, people are getting out of their cars. All the news crews, every smartphone are filming this historic event. Barrington slowly spins her shedding fifty pounds, fifty years, and all her clothing in one revolution. The crowd goes wild.

The song that inspired this typing fit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdKNlGfkyhc

#74 Context on 10.28.16 at 10:26 pm

#21 Smoking Man: – The Z Fire site is up with the latest and heed my warning as this is not a trick or treat but a testing of your manhood and sleep well.

#75 common sense on 10.28.16 at 10:31 pm

Well the next 11 days should be interesting to say the least.

Garth, can you contact BOOM to see if he is ok ?

Would love to read his thoughts..

#76 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 10:34 pm

When you get nuked, Page 80

There is no better song when the machine explodes a mini thermal nuke while you’re trying to shake hands.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R044sleOW6I

Why I don’t have friends.

#77 Tony on 10.28.16 at 10:39 pm

Mark on 10.28.16 at 8:01 pm
“Foreign investors would also rush into US Treasuries if Trump got elected”

I wouldn’t be so sure. Trump has pledged to ‘restructure’ the debt. “restructure” is usually a synonym for default, at least a partial default at that. Treasuries probably would be sold, if not on the fear of a Trump ‘restructuring’, then on the fear of protectionism and rising risk to the US economy.

___________________________________________________________________

If Trump wins a black Swan event will take place . The US higher powers is setting it up. They have programed the world to believe trump is crazy and so they will use that to their advantage. Will trump cough cough elite default on the national debt? Will we see the reset of some kind?;Trump is the master of going bankrupt . MARK I think you touched on something here. The elite never let a bad situation goto waste.

#78 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 10:41 pm

To hammered to find the chapter this is in.

When you tell the machine, I’m in charge now.
and they unload 10000 rounds 35mm hollow point into your belly.

You sing them this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC-T0rC6m7I

#79 Love My Kia on 10.28.16 at 10:45 pm

I enjoy reading your blog, especially when you keep personal political bias out of things.

I thought this was a ‘fair and balanced’ read.

Thumbs up

#80 Rocko on 10.28.16 at 10:49 pm

The post brexit buy op was great thanks. I’ll stop buying stocks when it’s confirmed that a moon sized comet is doing a bee line towards earth. Bring on the volitility and puking please, my fat pile o cash is waiting to slurp up companies that will never stop wiring homes with power, gas, hydro, internet, stocking the fridge, providing transport, etc etc etc. I don’t care if the change the currency to Monopoly money, the game is won by the guy who has the biggest pile.

#81 MF on 10.28.16 at 10:56 pm

36 SWL on 10.28.16 at 7:55 pm

Just who do you want to take the place of America as the number one economy in the world though?

Who else is there? The US does still stand for freedom if you look at the list of joke countries on earth. Your anti american bias is showing.

I prefer Trump over Clinton not because I dislike Clinton or hate America, but because I am no fan of Obama/Merkel/T2 and she is similar in world view to them.

MF

#82 Cici on 10.28.16 at 10:56 pm

Wild Bill alright…inviting property developers to expensive fundraisers while simultaneously trying to fan the housing market flames. So political.

#83 Canis on 10.28.16 at 10:56 pm

“Whomever’s in the White House”??? Oh dearski.

#84 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 11:13 pm

For the painter and piper and seeker of visions

I’ll never forget you Sid. nor will roger.

This man is my hero. Sid Baret
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0sw2CgysWY&list=RDR0sw2CgysWY#t=0

Looking at lake Ontario, in the fall, this on the buds.

Knowing god could not take you in a thunderstorm on the little shit boat when you challenged the heathen .

Me and him are having words, he’s not ready yet.

Coward

#85 Interstellar Star Stuff on 10.28.16 at 11:16 pm

#66 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 9:59 pm

#37 Scully on 10.28.16 at 7:57 pm
Looks like Hillary is getting more trouble from ANOTHER philandering husband, Anthony Weiner! Now, you didn’t here this from me but it turns out he and his wife Huma were apparently sharing a computer which Huma used for forwarding emails Hillary. The FBI found the emails while investigating the Weiner. It may be the case that most or all of those emails are duplicates that have already been turned over by Clinton, at least that’s what my barista says. My question is: Could the FBI secretly be conspiring to protect Hillary from her rightful indictment and rigging the election for her, OR is the FBI deliberately timing its actions and releasing damaging reports to rig the election against her? It’s just too hard to keep up with the crazy conspiracy theories. Maybe this is Smoking Man’s area of expertise! ;-)
…….

Ask your partner agent Fox Mulder for insights into conspiracies.

Me, I deal in reality.

I’m realising my book Nov 7th. One day before the big vote. Talk about confidence. The book will be mud if I’m wrong. How often does that happen?

Being a man with a big head from planet Nictonite is so underrated.

Never in my life have I felt so accomplished as I did today when I downloaded a beta version of my book. For the schooled I’m sure it’s no big deal, to a dyslexic it’s huge, I still can’t read that good. Thank god for Youtube.

Altho I can make millions every year with my eyes closed trading forex, that’s nothing compared to this achievement.

I’m so proud. can’t find words to describe it. I know goofs like James will chirp it up the ying yang. I don’t care. I did it bitches…
I finished it, fought the fear and slayed it huge.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics


How much?

#86 Bad Hombre & Nasty Woman on 10.28.16 at 11:21 pm

I was standing in line with a beautiful woman at the coffee shop this morning, I grabbed a muffin and held the door for her as we left. Then I ran into a little guy probably six or seven playing with a toy he was holding, I said puppet? He shrieked no puppet, no puppet, no puppet, you’re the puppet. As I walked away I thought everything about this morning I seem to have seen or heard before….somewhere.

#87 Spectacle on 10.28.16 at 11:26 pm

Re:
#2 Marcus on 10.28.16 at 6:52 pm
“…..Trump just won the election. FBI reopens the investigation about Hillary Clinton and classified e-mails being hacked on her unsecured home server. Thank you Kim.com!! He showed governments around the world how to hack into and access her bleached 50,000 e-mails on the NSA server in Utah. She is done.”
*************

Very cool! I wondered what happened to Kim.com .

Feds went after him, his mom, seized is cars. Gave it all back and let him go. Nada…. But big mistake. Major technical wizard! Now, His F— You begins, Take Down of hillary A.KA ” lock her up, lock her up” Clinton.

Thanks Marcus, thanks Garth & big thanks to Kim.com, made my evening : ).

#88 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 11:26 pm

#84 Interstellar Star Stuff on 10.28.16 at 11:16 pm
#66 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 9:59 pm

#37 Scully on 10.28.16 at 7:57 pm
Looks like Hillary is getting more trouble from ANOTHER philandering husband, Anthony Weiner! Now, you didn’t here this from me but it turns out he and his wife Huma were apparently sharing a computer which Huma used for forwarding emails Hillary. The FBI found the emails while investigating the Weiner. It may be the case that most or all of those emails are duplicates that have already been turned over by Clinton, at least that’s what my barista says. My question is: Could the FBI secretly be conspiring to protect Hillary from her rightful indictment and rigging the election for her, OR is the FBI deliberately timing its actions and releasing damaging reports to rig the election against her? It’s just too hard to keep up with the crazy conspiracy theories. Maybe this is Smoking Man’s area of expertise! ;-)
…….

Ask your partner agent Fox Mulder for insights into conspiracies.

Me, I deal in reality.

I’m realising my book Nov 7th. One day before the big vote. Talk about confidence. The book will be mud if I’m wrong. How often does that happen?

Being a man with a big head from planet Nictonite is so underrated.

Never in my life have I felt so accomplished as I did today when I downloaded a beta version of my book. For the schooled I’m sure it’s no big deal, to a dyslexic it’s huge, I still can’t read that good. Thank god for Youtube.

Altho I can make millions every year with my eyes closed trading forex, that’s nothing compared to this achievement.

I’m so proud. can’t find words to describe it. I know goofs like James will chirp it up the ying yang. I don’t care. I did it bitches…
I finished it, foug
….

ht the fear and slayed it huge.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics


How much?

…..
Six years of drunken hallucinations

It’s not going to be cheap. My liver want’s more.
Maybe 6 or 7 dollars

#89 VS on 10.28.16 at 11:27 pm

#47 Mark M. on 10.28.16 at 8:27 pm
………….
No rate hikes coming. Rate cuts before you know it. Soybeans are not emerging technology.
………..
================================
Hi man; really like what your posting. would you mind sharing your opinion on US index; is it heading down, up? short and long term.
thanks.

#90 isuckless on 10.28.16 at 11:38 pm

few months ago: only 5% of foreign buyers in Vancouver, impossible that they are driving prices up. 15% foreign tax stopped (for now) buying. Turned out it is significantly more than 5% foreign buyers (some layers say 50% instead of 5%).
Now: only 5% foreign buyers in Toronto, no need for 15% foreign buyers tax.

Does reality changes depending on geography.
Someone should be consistent.

#91 Ronaldo on 10.28.16 at 11:39 pm

#56 Espresso Bob

”Most DIYers will panic promising to never invest in equities again while selling all their positions in the heat of emotion. Works every time.”
——————————————————–
I would think it would be the other way around for the most part as DIYers are fairly astute at what they do otherwise they would turn it over to someone else to do it for them. Most DIYers that I know look upon corrections as buying opportunities and is why they have sufficient funds ready to deploy in case of such an event.

#92 Jimmy Doo on 10.28.16 at 11:42 pm

Garth,
Please stop pretending that you understand what is going on down south. You don’t. Trump’s situation now is no different than it was two weeks ago when you said he was toast. You didn’t get it then, and you are not getting it now.

#93 NoName on 10.28.16 at 11:56 pm

#40 TurnerNation on 10.28.16 at 8:04 pm

i think that norman rokvel depicted track6ers nicely 60 yrs ago, back in nov 16 1946.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/f2/8e/a5/f28ea5c01e92ad1d667be9fec3020536.jpg

#94 NoName on 10.29.16 at 12:00 am

Good night blogs dogs.

https://youtu.be/_qTHn_sxrN0

#95 GreaterFool D. on 10.29.16 at 12:09 am

I bought myself a new time machine next Tuesday. They don”t make them anymore as they will be.

#96 Blobby on 10.29.16 at 12:29 am

But brexit wasn’t a “blip” the pound is still worth naff all!

#97 Fact Check on 10.29.16 at 1:18 am

“So the data’s in. No government stats or realtor Frankenumbers, but private-sector evidence collected from developers and brokerages representing a quarter of all new condo apartment unit sales.”

Garth, this is eerily reminiscent of your posts from 2012 on that denied the influence of foreign buyers in BC. For years, you noted that foreign buyers were a boogeyman and that at most 5% were foreign. That position softened when you noted certain areas in Vancouver were more prone to foreign influence. And of course, the BC government finally noted that the 5% figure given to them by the development industry was way way off with some communities as high as 20% in the lower mainland. Hence, the imposition of the tax when they were forced to listen to the average voter who saw what was going on in their communities.

Isn’t it convenient that 5% was chosen in Ontario just as it was in BC? Do you know why 5% is chosen by the development industry? Because it: reinforces the ‘desirability’ of the city; it substantive enough to foster FOMO and give credibility to what the average joe is seeing in her community; and its not large enough to warrant ‘serious’ attention from the provincial government.

And by the way, all those posters say the GTA is softening is out to lunch. My colleague just sold their house in Mount Albert for 600k after 1 day on the market – bought 300k 4 years ago. Thats a cool 300k profit.

Its next to impossible for that house to revert back to 300k even with the federal changes (especially if they decide to soften them which they can do at ANY point remember, especially if the marker starts tanking).

The reality is that GTA prices will keep going up. And don’t look for any foreign buyer’s tax until 2018 just before or after the election, when low and behold, the provincial government will ‘discover’ the impact of foreign buyers on prices. That 5% will all of sudden become 20% as it did in BC.

And of course, local indebted idiots are the driving force in price appreciation, but do not discount the foreign influence as one of a few key price drivers.

#98 Tony on 10.29.16 at 1:35 am

Third quarter growth before the U.S. election 2.9 percent. Revised to -2.9 percent shortly after the election. October jobs report in America +300,000. November jobs report in America -100,000. See the trend here? The biggest buying opportunity for long bonds and gold, silver and platinum in the last 50 years when the October jobs report comes out. Trade accordingly.

#99 1 Trick Pony Mark Carney on 10.29.16 at 2:35 am

Not so fast on Brexit Garth.

Since Nov. 2015 the £ has fallen by 21% vs. the €. UK Airports are now exchanging a £ for about a €. The EU is the UK’s largest trading partner, by a long country mile.

His rate cuts are doing nothing for the floundering UK economy which has grown 0.5% post Brexit.

The UK is beginning to see the Brexit fall-out.

More interest rate cuts from 1 trick pony Carney will do little other than maybe “goose” their RE market.

You would think Carney would learn from his protégé here in Canada, 1 trick pony Poloz, and all the success he has brought Canada with rate cuts over the past 3 years.

Doubtful.

Look to more misery in the UK from Brexit especially when they lose their preferred EU trading status and their financial centers which are already looking to flee to NYC or perhaps the EU.

Oops, there goes another chunk of their GDP.

bsant

#100 Catch22 on 10.29.16 at 2:57 am

I work with a great guy who just purchased a Condo a couple of months ago, due to pressure from his Mother. She owns 4 properties, and co-signed the mortgage. It’s a 680 Sq ft box, which he plans on renting out. Only problem is that he requires $1700.00 income/month to cover costs.
If rents go down in the M2N, he’s screwed. There are a lot of flippers out here. The new cap gain tax will quickly re-purpose speculative empty units into rentals (who will sell an investment condo property now, knowing that they will pay cap gains? It’s not worth it).
In short, my co-worker is screwed. For everyone that believes that rents will go up if we have a housing crash- think again. I’m more of the belief that once condo speculators figure out that they can’t sell without a financial spanking, there will be a ton of new rentals out there. Dirt cheap.
Not that I care- I’m gone to the west end; Toronto can keep its gridlock, pathetic excuse for public transportation, pollution, and condos that have been slowly devouring the only things that made this place livable and attractive, in the first place. It might have been a world-class city, once. Humans, as a lot, are a funny bunch. We find an area that is desirable, flock to said area in droves, and then wonder why it loses its allure. Talk about herd mentality…

#101 Trump has to roll double snake eyes to win on 10.29.16 at 3:20 am

The so-called Swing States currently in Clinton’s favor:

FL (29), PA (20), NC (15), AZ (11), NV (3), ME (4, 3 Clinton, 1 Trump – weird split EC vote state)

= 163 EC votes.

270 EC votes needed to win.

Trump as of today = 205 EC votes per RealClearPolitics.

Therefore, Trump needs another 65 EC votes to win (= 270 – 205).

He has a chance to win FL & NC where polling data at or close to poll margin of error:

Trump (205) + FL (29) + NC (15) = 249 EV votes, still 21 EC votes short of victory (= 270 – 249).

This leaves PA (20) where he trails by 5% of pop. vote, AZ (11) where he trails by 1.5%, NV (3) where he trails by 1.6% and ME (4) where he trails by 5.2%.

AZ and NV = 14 EC votes and within poll margin of error in pop. vote.

Now he has, if he wins AZ and NV, 266 EC votes.

Still short by 4 EC votes.

Only chance he has to win is to take PA and that is grim as he trails there by 5% of pop. vote.

Not mathematically impossible but as of today, improbable…a dice double snake eyes roll, twice in a row.

bsant

#102 Karma on 10.29.16 at 3:24 am

Interesting read.

https://life.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/a-handy-guide-to-left-wing-people-for-the-under-10s/

#103 Karma on 10.29.16 at 3:41 am

It appears Smoking Man is a victim of something he claims to have a Ph.D in.

http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/10/why-people-fall-for-charismatic-leaders/503906/

#104 I may have spoken too soon... on 10.29.16 at 3:43 am

Today:

‘Let’s get it out’: Clinton calls on FBI to release info on email investigation

God I love you America. You never cease to make my day dull.

Unless the FBI did a lousy job in vetting those emails, this cannot be a good idea by Clinton.

For certain, WikiLeaks will be watching and releasing anything the FBI missed or screwed up.

A fun 11 days to come…

Suicidal Clinton?

bsant

#105 Karma on 10.29.16 at 3:45 am

“According to legendary polls analyst Nate Silver, this could drop her magic number to 68%”

Garth, where are you getting 68% from? None of these are that low:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

#106 Grantmi on 10.29.16 at 4:45 am

I betcha.. there’s probably evidence on that computer that the little Weiner and Bubba Bill were sharing nasty girls together. All hail Chief Trump.

#107 debtified on 10.29.16 at 5:13 am

Hi Garth,

Are these Trumperters on your comments section the same people as the high net-worth readers who responded on your survey?

My idol Smoking Man may be excluded as he is not real and his existence is solely for entertainment purposes only.

#108 P Souch on 10.29.16 at 5:28 am

Garth, do your homework. 2.9% GDP growth with .9% coming from soybean exports.
“Or, said otherwise, soybean exports were responsible for just under a third, or 0.9% of “growth” in the world’s biggest economy. Which is bad news: as Capital Economics’ Ian Shepherdson said, “The soybean boost is indeed a one-time thing. It has no implications for trend growth and likely will reverse over the next couple quarters.”

So doing some more back of the envelope calculations, if one excludes soybean exports, the inventory build, and the contribution from Obamacare which amounted to another 10% of the bottom line, the US economy grew by 0.9% annualized in the third quarter, 2% below the reported number.”

#109 Black swan on 10.29.16 at 6:58 am

Actually Trump winning is not a black swan, yawn!
More and more I have been reading the black Swan in the elections that will totally reach havoc in the markets is the following, demoncrates sweep, the president, senate, and the house. Now that’s a black Swan.

And your wrong about condos, the government wants to increase immigration, they all have to live somewhere.

The reasons foreigners don’t buy in Toronto is its to cold
And no mountains.

#110 Keith on 10.29.16 at 7:10 am

Whole new meaning to the term “house horny.”

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-37754565?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbctrending&ns_source=facebook

#111 BillyBob on 10.29.16 at 7:20 am

#81 MF on 10.28.16 at 10:56 pm
36 SWL on 10.28.16 at 7:55 pm

Just who do you want to take the place of America as the number one economy in the world though?

Who else is there? The US does still stand for freedom if you look at the list of joke countries on earth. Your anti american bias is showing.

I prefer Trump over Clinton not because I dislike Clinton or hate America, but because I am no fan of Obama/Merkel/T2 and she is similar in world view to them.

MF

====================================

Well said. There are just a few too many insecure Canadians cheering for the demise of the “American Empire”, gleefully predicting the chaos that the election has been/will be, etc…

Yet at the same time offering no idea of exactly what, or who, they feel would be a better (real, current, not fantasy) alternative to hold the reins as the world’s largest economic and military power.

China? Russia? Anyone?

Be careful what you wish for.

#112 TRUMP on 10.29.16 at 7:42 am

Trump wins in a landslide!

#113 TJ on 10.29.16 at 9:11 am

What BS. A survey of developers and brokerages… lol… Now what incentive could these people possibly have to suppress the number of reported foreign buyers? Perhaps reducing the probability of a tax on their sales?

I unfortunately know a real estate agent at a condo brokerage in downtown Toronto. They also handle the property management for most of the foreign buyers they represent. In the last building I lived in, they managed 17 different units for foreign investors they represented. But I bet on this “trustworthy” urbanation survey those units got listed as owned by domestic investors because the property manager is domestic.

What a blog. Government stats are crap. Realtor numbers are bogus. Private survey data sucks. If something doesn’t conform to the biases and prejudices of a poster, then it’s trash. What a sad, pathetic site this is. — Garth

#114 Oot of the Hoos on 10.29.16 at 9:17 am

My property taxes have been gas-bagging 7% per year for three years. CMHC has been insuring the election of social thieves (greedy Liberals) to my town council.

#115 jess on 10.29.16 at 9:32 am

“gig” economy selling a “lifestyle”

Employment tribunal judge’s ruling will send shockwaves through companies using the same business model

…” For most of the past six years, ministers have turned a blind eye to the growth in bogus self-employment, zero-hours contracts and Sports Direct-style agency work. They have preferred instead to celebrate the record employment numbers as proof that austerity is doing the trick. Just before the last election, Nick Clegg claimed: “If you want a glimpse of the sort of worker that will thrive in the new economy, you need look no further than the growing numbers of self-employed people.”..

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/28/uber-ruling-is-a-massive-boost-for-a-fairer-jobs-market

Matthew Taylor, who is conducting the inquiry at May’s behest, wrote in the Guardian this month that one in five British workers are in involved in what he called “non-standard working arrangements.”

http://www.therecord.com/news-story/6936110-u-k-uber-drivers-win-case-to-get-paid-vacation-minimum-wage/

#116 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.29.16 at 9:35 am

Those flogging the US Electoral System should look to our system if you wanna see dysfunction. We’re one of the few places on the planet where 30%ish of the popular vote gets you a dictatorship for four years.

Now that PM Selfie has come out and done the Belgian Waffle on his promise to get rid of FTPT we’re in for more of the same.

Brutal.

#117 Future Expatriate on 10.29.16 at 9:59 am

Relax, Donald’s not winning. The emails issue is the Clinton Impeachment II, with the same exact “public could care less” result. Most of the early vote is in, and its overwhelmingly Democrat. The old conservaBorg diehards always vote on election day, and that’s when it’s roughest with all the disenfranchisement.

Will it be tighter? A hair.

#118 Tony on 10.29.16 at 10:00 am

Fact check #96

You Realtors are to funny with your fake sale stories and idiotic logic as why prices will go up. There is no foreign boogie man; only misinformed locals borrowing above their means . New mortgage rules takes out 20-30 % of marginal buyers and what ever % Speculators made up. I know two realtors trying to cash out with no luck so far. They even said the game is over. Talked to a couple of brokers who worry about their future as the phones went dEads. When interet rates were @ 4.6 % RE was 30-40% cheaper. That’s where we are going. Lots of Speculators are really screwed. Maybe that’s you?

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.16 at 10:10 am

@#77 Tony
“If Trump wins a black Swan event will take place . The US higher powers is setting it up. ”
********************************************
“Hello”? “Hello?”
“Is this Apocalypse 2016?”
“Someone is stealing your thunder……..”

#120 jess on 10.29.16 at 10:11 am

carney stepping down from b of e?
The Bank’s governor could step down as early as next week
He hinted in the House of Lords last week he was considering his future
A return to his native Canada could be on the cards for next year

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.16 at 10:12 am

@#112 TJ
“I unfortunately know a real estate agent ….”
********************************************

And they ALWAYS tell the truth…….

#122 suburban coyote and pup on 10.29.16 at 10:25 am

Yikes what a bunch of nutbars in the comment section in the last week. Garth is that you and Bandit in pic?

Onf51

#123 AfterTheHouseSold on 10.29.16 at 10:38 am

#49 IHCTD9
“I have kicked things off by taking my toy (third) vehicle off the road … This vehicle will be sold …”

Would this happen to be the 1999 Saab 9-3 that you have previously mentioned, that’s got a lot of get-up-and-go under the hood? If so, I know a certain race car driver looking to improve his standing in the (G series?) competitions. If this vehicle is suitable for racing, lets take this off blog. Could you please provide a means of contact that I can pass along to him.

Thanks for your indulgence Garth.

#124 IHCTD9 on 10.29.16 at 10:48 am

#72 NoName on 10.28.16 at 10:26 pm
#49 IHCTD9 on 10.28.16 at 8:37 pm

with some scrap 2×4, drill and some elbow grease i recommend that you make a paper log maker. no heat is better than free heat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVrKEgKckbU
#Save_A_Jack
——————-

Scrap wood like skids, standing deadwood, windfall, construction waste, wood chips etc are also free out my way and add up to some real BTU’s. That paper log thing would require me to quit my job and devote 40 hrs a week to making enough to get through a winter.

I currently heat with pellets, and my old farm house eats between 9-10,000 lbs worth every year. The cost is up 50% since I started using them 11 years ago. I’m really only looking to supplement at this point, but if scrounging wood comes easy, then I may be able to cut the pellets out all together.

If you look up rocket stoves, they are most at home burning small chunks of wood, they do so fast, very efficiently, and hot, so you need to pull the heat out with water and store it if the stove is outside. You pretty much have to build one yourself, they are essentially an updraft gasifier in principal.

The best part is these stoves burn the junk that wood stove folks, businesses, and cities don’t want so it’s free fuel without competing with 500 other guys who also want the scrap for heating, – and no taxes :)

#125 Bobs Uruncle on 10.29.16 at 10:49 am

I am back blog dogs. Looking forward to a Trump win. This is going to be yuge. Hillary is a disaster and is going to flame out. The Trumpster in my opinion is just tremendous, just great. He is going to build a wall along the Canadian border and make Trudeau pay for it. Those yuge deficits? They’re for the coming Great Wall of Canada.

#126 David McDonald on 10.29.16 at 11:04 am

The melt in condo prices in Ottawa is best confirmed by lower city assessments. My assessment is down 10% and two other owners I know got the same reduction. I think the city has got it about right; down roughly 10% over three years.

At least I will be playing less tax!

#127 Interstellar star stuff on 10.29.16 at 11:11 am

#87 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 11:26 pm
#84 Interstellar Star Stuff on 10.28.16 at 11:16 pm
#66 Smoking Man on 10.28.16 at 9:59 pm

#37 Scully on 10.28.16 at 7:57 pm
Looks like Hillary is getting more trouble from ANOTHER philandering husband, Anthony Weiner! Now, you didn’t here this from me but it turns out he and his wife Huma were apparently sharing a computer which Huma used for forwarding emails Hillary. The FBI found the emails while investigating the Weiner. It may be the case that most or all of those emails are duplicates that have already been turned over by Clinton, at least that’s what my barista says. My question is: Could the FBI secretly be conspiring to protect Hillary from her rightful indictment and rigging the election for her, OR is the FBI deliberately timing its actions and releasing damaging reports to rig the election against her? It’s just too hard to keep up with the crazy conspiracy theories. Maybe this is Smoking Man’s area of expertise! ;-)
…….

Ask your partner agent Fox Mulder for insights into conspiracies.

Me, I deal in reality.

I’m realising my book Nov 7th. One day before the big vote. Talk about confidence. The book will be mud if I’m wrong. How often does that happen?

Being a man with a big head from planet Nictonite is so underrated.

Never in my life have I felt so accomplished as I did today when I downloaded a beta version of my book. For the schooled I’m sure it’s no big deal, to a dyslexic it’s huge, I still can’t read that good. Thank god for Youtube.

Altho I can make millions every year with my eyes closed trading forex, that’s nothing compared to this achievement.

I’m so proud. can’t find words to describe it. I know goofs like James will chirp it up the ying yang. I don’t care. I did it bitches…
I finished it, foug
….

ht the fear and slayed it huge.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics


How much?

…..
Six years of drunken hallucinations

It’s not going to be cheap. My liver want’s more.
Maybe 6 or 7 dollars
….
Pretty steep price point!! This blog is free and the hosts books are a penny on amazon. You got serious competition there.

#128 CLINTASTROPHE!!!!!!!! on 10.29.16 at 11:20 am

Trump is coming!!!!!

Sell all US equities

Dump all Canadian real estate – NOW!!!

Buy physical gold

Buy some bitcoin

Have a safe retreat with food and fuel to last 24 months

Ensure you have private satellite dish internet access and solar power

Check good prepper websites for more: start with the one by James Wesley, Rawles

#129 Andrew t on 10.29.16 at 11:35 am

Here’s a nice old-fashioned news summary of the FBI letter without the drama and hyperbole:

https://www.google.ca/amp/www.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton-emails-fbi-comey-donald-trump-anthony-weiner-huma-abedin-514918%3Famp%3D1?client=safari

#130 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.29.16 at 11:43 am

…”Well, no wonder Ontario decided not to impose a BC-style, Chinese Dudes tax on real estate. There aren’t any”….
—————————————————————–
Adding 5% pressure to a balanced market can increase prices over time Vancouver Style.

Also it was revealed that the 8% of foreign investors in BC were responsible for 40% of the dollar value.

Ontario has erred by not implementing the tax.
The feds have erred in not implementing it nation wide.
Foreigners have no business parking money in our real estate.

Real estate is for the people who live here.

Not a futures market.

Even China has implemented severe property purchase restrictions on about 20 major cities about 3 weeks ago.

They know the culture of their people is to follow the money into any hyped up investment. The sky is the limit.

The smart ones get out in time and the peasantry gets stung.

#131 The Wet Coast on 10.29.16 at 11:44 am

I my view the reason foreign buyers have such a significant impact on housing is as follows.

When Joey Canuck buys a house he also sells a house or moves out of a rental. So the total impact on housing is zero. 1 – 1 = 0.

We a non resident buys a house that person does not. 0 – 1 = -1.

So if none residents are 10% of the market their impact is twice what Joey Canucks is. So 10% foreigner impacts the market like 20% on an Apples to apples basis. Or Joey to foreigner. In markets like Richmond the impact was likely 40%, so the exit of these buyer was and is huge.

Just sayin….

#132 mathman on 10.29.16 at 11:44 am

Spot on with the Condo talk Garth – most condo investors think a cap rate has to do with the price of hats. most don’t understand why the cost of carry makes it a loosing investment. Nobody in Toronto who has bought a condo in the last 5 years is cash flow positive unless they paid cash for the unit.

Too many variables that you can’t control, special assesments, fees going up etc. I know many who have had their respective assess handed to them in downtown TO by tenants who destroyed the hardwood walls etc.

when the dust settles we will wonder how it was possible for barristas to own three condos. Anyone who thinks our lending standards are “better” than our friends down south are naive.

#133 Karma on 10.29.16 at 11:45 am

The Herd mentality of the press…

https://www.lawfareblog.com/memo-press-what-comeys-letter-does-and-doesnt-mean

#134 mathman on 10.29.16 at 11:49 am

My daughter asked me what it takes to become a real estate agent, because surprise surprise she does not understand why so many peoples parents are real estate “professionals”. I said it comes down to three really important things;

1. Be able to fog a mirror
2. Know how to lease a german luxury vehicle and pretend to be successful
3. be very proficient at not being able to do math as most think 2+ 2= $1.6 million for a teardown

Math

#135 Context on 10.29.16 at 11:51 am

I have a pellet stove for my shack in the woods with my chimney out the wall. Why burn wood as use corn instead for a cleaner burn using a hopper. It costs me nothing as have trained my dog to go into the farmer’s field to fetch them cobs all day long for storage to be dried out.

#136 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.29.16 at 11:53 am

I find it astounding that the MSM can interfere with the election with absolutely no detail on Hillary’s “crimes”.

Yesterday CNN was in hysteria about “New” allegations. 2 hours later it wasn’t even about her at all. the emails that turned up are about Anthony Weiner!

What a pathetic example of journalism.

The FBI chief is likely a Trump supporter and wants to throw a wrench into the election.

Trump calls Hillary a corrupt politician but what has she ever done but work at home on her computer like we all do. At the time it was standard procedure.

I don’t get how this stuff sticks.

I feel Trump is a Blowhard who could be dangerous to the world and would be willing to play brinkmanship with any other nuclear power simply because his defective Ego will not allow him to back down.

#137 Smoking Man on 10.29.16 at 11:53 am

#126 Interstellar star stuff on 10.29.16 at 11:11 am

Pretty steep price point!! This blog is free and the hosts books are a penny on amazon. You got serious competition there.
…..

No worries deep discount for blog dogs. A one day only thing. The company hosting the book needs to make a cut, so can’t go as low as a cent. I’ll price it at the min allowed.

The Deplorables on Twitter will pay, but I need you buggers to learn to lie a bit. Write up amazing reviews. It will be our little inside joke.

#138 Do not despair Garth... on 10.29.16 at 11:53 am

If something doesn’t conform to the biases and prejudices of a poster, then it’s trash. What a sad, pathetic site this is. — Garth

True about the biased dissenters.

There are some of us that respect the numbers published and try to use facts not innuendo nor bias.

Keep doing what you do. You do it very well.

I have learned much from yourself and other Commentators.

There will always be scum in the bathtub after bathing the baby.

Use that nifty Delete numerical system of yours more often for those that dissent with no facts, figures or the like.

bsant

#139 IHCTD9 on 10.29.16 at 11:55 am

Oot of the Hoos on 10.29.16 at 9:17 am
My property taxes have been gas-bagging 7% per year for three years. CMHC has been insuring the election of social thieves (greedy Liberals) to my town council.
———–

Welcome to the club. 5.5% two years in a row. No sewer, no sidewalks, no streetlights, no water. I pay a fee for garbage collection, the recycling is a for profit private business so they pick up for free.

City hall 35 km away looks like the Taj Mahal, new Fire Hall in the work 5X bigger than the old one, new Police station on the drawing board, details yet to be released. 75% of the folks working in these buildings are on the sunshine list, the head librarian makes 130,000/yr, average household income in the dying town itself where these buildings are located and who partially foot the bill for all this is 35k a year – yes you read right – household income, not individual.

Property taxes are where the future revenue lies because it’s impossible to avoid without moving. Outside of town, but still in the municipality (where I live), a half million dollar house will run you 7,000.00+/yr in taxes with no services paid by said taxes whatsoever other than Fire, snow removal and Police.

Really, the plan in my area for years has been for the city to inhale the outlying areas into the city limits and bleed them to pay for stuff located in the city itself, because the way they are running things taxes in the city limits would need to be 20,000/ year to cover all the spending they’re doing.

I counted 10 empty storefronts amongst the dollar stores on the main drag last time I was through. Small town tax requirements will undoubtedly be a major, huge issue 20 years from now. There are no less than 15 big empty manufacturing plants in town, some sitting empty since the early 80’s, 17% of the city is on some sort of government support, and now it is becoming obvious that we are starting to get a pretty good collection of empty houses in town.

My next move will likely be further north in a small villiage far enough from a major city that I might get a couple decades before being absorbed once more into a dying, brokeass city, and forcibly being used as a revenue generator for the sunshine listers and their sans-benefit construction projects…

#140 Smoking Man on 10.29.16 at 12:05 pm

#116 Future Expatriate on 10.29.16 at 9:59 am
Relax, Donald’s not winning. The emails issue is the Clinton Impeachment II, with the same exact “public could care less” result. Most of the early vote is in, and its overwhelmingly Democrat. The old conservaBorg diehards always vote on election day, and that’s when it’s roughest with all the disenfranchisement.

Will it be tighter? A hair.
……

It doesn’t really matter at this point, the machine has been outed, no more keeping quite supporting the lefty regressive agenda and bull shit criminal narrative.

There is enough of us tin foilers now to stop these raving lunatics destroy our culture and economy.

Not so sure about Ontario. Apparently the word father and mother are being tossed in the trash bin.

Lunatic fringe is winning here.

#141 Damifino on 10.29.16 at 12:11 pm

#99 Catch22

“(who will sell an investment condo property now, knowing that they will pay cap gains? It’s not worth it)”.
——————————-

So, without criminal tax evasion there is no money to be made in condos?

Then we’re in for quite a ride ahead.

#142 Karma on 10.29.16 at 12:20 pm

“Blame the mainstream media” by a columnist at CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/17/election-violence-heres-who-to-blame-commentary.html?_source=Twitter

#143 IHCTD9 on 10.29.16 at 12:31 pm

#122 AfterTheHouseSold on 10.29.16 at 10:38 am
#49 IHCTD9
“I have kicked things off by taking my toy (third) vehicle off the road … This vehicle will be sold …”

Would this happen to be the 1999 Saab 9-3 that you have previously mentioned, that’s got a lot of get-up-and-go under the hood? If so, I know a certain race car driver looking to improve his standing in the (G series?) competitions. If this vehicle is suitable for racing, lets take this off blog. Could you please provide a means of contact that I can pass along to him.

Thanks for your indulgence Garth.

———-

Wow, you have a good memory! No, I’m still rocking the Saab, it’s going to last for a long time yet from the looks of it, just hit 200k, clutch only has 100k on it.

I have a 1986 Bronco II that lived it’s whole life in Arizona, it’s going on the block.

#144 SWL on 10.29.16 at 12:43 pm

#81 MF

Just who do you want to take the place of America as the number one economy in the world though?

China is already set to be the number one economy in the world and there is little America or anyone can do about that at this point. Simple demographics. The best way to deal with it in my opinion is just get on with doing business in a fair and respectable manner.

#110 BillyBob

Well said. There are just a few too many insecure Canadians cheering for the demise of the “American Empire”, gleefully predicting the chaos that the election has been/will be, etc…

BillyBob, you and MF are both confusing telling it like it is, with being as you say ‘insecure’ or hating America. Truth is, I love what America once stood for and the principles that it was founded on, but what America has currently become is nothing the same. Feel free to educate yourself here. I am sure the founding fathers never envisioned local police forces having MRAP’s other surplus military equipment, that has in effect transformed the ‘American Dream’ into a nightmare police state. Feel free to also educate yourself here.

Yet at the same time offering no idea of exactly what, or who, they feel would be a better (real, current, not fantasy) alternative to hold the reins as the world’s largest economic and military power.

Simple. Give the power back to the people where it belongs in all nations. We are simply over governed worldwide and corporations now in bed with governments signing secret trade deals behind closed doors is nothing short of treason by the ones inking the deals.

Yes this may be fantasy, but I feel it’s a better fantasy than the one where everything is fine in America and Trump will save the day

#145 Context on 10.29.16 at 12:52 pm

#125 David McDonald: – You are not out of the woods just yet as let me give you a history lesson of what took place in Ottawa during 1982. The townhouses crashed with entire projects taken back by CMHC to be sold off to the public for $42,000 each. No down payment or you don’t exactly qualify to buy one, but have a job, will be no problem as a deal can be made just take it off our books.

#146 Prairieboy43 on 10.29.16 at 12:57 pm

You better hurry, collect all you can. Your days are numbered.
Enekem gasification system(working). Reduce landfills 50%. Production of Methanol at 30-50m3/day. Depending on feedstock.
http://enerkem.com/

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyzzzzzz

#123 IHCTD9 on 10.29.16 at 10:48 am
#72 NoName on 10.28.16 at 10:26 pm
#49 IHCTD9 on 10.28.16 at 8:37 pm

with some scrap 2×4, drill and some elbow grease i recommend that you make a paper log maker. no heat is better than free heat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVrKEgKckbU
#Save_A_Jack
——————-

Scrap wood like skids, standing deadwood, windfall, construction waste, wood chips etc are also free out my way and add up to some real BTU’s. That paper log thing would require me to quit my job and devote 40 hrs a week to making enough to get through a winter.

I currently heat with pellets, and my old farm house eats between 9-10,000 lbs worth every year. The cost is up 50% since I started using them 11 years ago. I’m really only looking to supplement at this point, but if scrounging wood comes easy, then I may be able to cut the pellets out all together.

If you look up rocket stoves, they are most at home burning small chunks of wood, they do so fast, very efficiently, and hot, so you need to pull the heat out with water and store it if the stove is outside. You pretty much have to build one yourself, they are essentially an updraft gasifier in principal.

The best part is these stoves burn the junk that wood stove folks, businesses, and cities don’t want so it’s free fuel without competing with 500 other guys who also want the scrap for heating, – and no taxes :)

#147 westcdn on 10.29.16 at 1:03 pm

I see “ceta” was signed – good or bad I don’t know. I do know that too many Canadian soldiers died on Belgium soil. My uncle Fred watched his men die from a German trap. They set a kill zone around him so it took a couple of days to rescue him. He developed gangrene from his stomach wound.

He was lying in bed in a body cast when flies started to pop out of his cast. The doctor was happy as the maggots he placed were working. He went back into the line a year later after serving as a MP. Fred told me he loved enforcing under the cover of a big bike.

He was the good one as his two brothers were court martialed – they stood for what they believed. Damn Metis! I have pride in those guys.

#148 IHCTD9 on 10.29.16 at 1:04 pm

#134 Context on 10.29.16 at 11:51 am
I have a pellet stove for my shack in the woods with my chimney out the wall. Why burn wood as use corn instead for a cleaner burn using a hopper. It costs me nothing as have trained my dog to go into the farmer’s field to fetch them cobs all day long for storage to be dried out.
——

Right, I did try that, but the farmer caught on quick and filled my dog full of lead the 3rd trip out. Now I’m back to wood.

#149 Mr. Frugal on 10.29.16 at 1:31 pm

A while back Garth posted a comment on Return of Capital which I think is a bit misleading;

Nope. Return of capital distributions from your own portfolio do not reduce any asset’s ACB. It’s simply what it suggests – a dipping into the principal to pay yourself monthly. That is non-reportable income, and your tax profile is determined solely by realized capital gains, dividend or interest income – most of which is taxed less when overall income is low. Principal distributions are replaced by investment income. — Garth

A Return of Capital distribution from a REIT reduces the Adjusted Cost Base (ACB) and therefore increases the future capital gain when the REIT is sold.

http://advisors.td.com/public/projectfiles/4a5807e9-856f-4afa-a7cd-35dfba53bfe4.pdf

True, but I was not discussing REIT distribution. Your comment and link are irrelevant. — Garth

#150 Chart on 10.29.16 at 1:32 pm

I find the above chart interesting and meaningless with out the comments below the chart on The national Bank website.
Oh by the way thank you very much for that website very informative.
This is only half of the paragraph, but puts the chart in context.

So why have Vancouver prices not retreated in step with the substantial decline of sales since March? Because despite the drop in sales, the market has remained tight. We estimate that in September, after seasonal adjustment, the ratio of listings to monthly sales (the number of months required to sell the listed units at the current monthly sales rate) had risen only to 31⁄2, leaving Vancouver still a buyer’s market.5

#151 Wrk.dover on 10.29.16 at 1:52 pm

IHCTD9 and any other burners: wood pellets start in the woods, and are value added by:
1) Being logged and yarded
2) trucked
3) manufactured
4) shipped to Distributors
5) shipped to Retailers
6) retailed
7) TAXED
8) delivered

There are very few opportunities here for you to add in value yourself in this chain of steps to your $2000 stove, other than doing the store pickup.

With fire wood, you can value add from the tree to the split pile in any or all of the steps or pay casual help/ contractors, all tax free.

Wynne electric power doesn’t really cost a heck of a lot more than pellet heat really now does it?

This will be handy knowledge to have for the next wave of exurbanites.

On the power meme, how about all of those massive solar electric array tracker apparati in Southern Ontario. For the same amount of $ there could be twice as many panels, with half facing SE and half facing SW, with the benefit being no moving parts so much less structure, and double the power mid day!

Even crazier, they point straight up every time a cloud hides the sun, because they aren’t programmed to remember where they were pointing 24 hours ago!

But it was all free stuff anyway, for those that applied!

My unsubsidized evacuated tube solar hot water system returned 15% on the dollar this year at 15 cents per KW Hr.

#152 What the heck, 1 - 1 = 0? and Trump People on 10.29.16 at 2:04 pm

#130 The Wet Coast

Firstly, I love your tech atuomation comments, accurate.

But look it:

1 = 100%.

-1 = -100%.

How, on God’s Green Earth, did you get to 10%, then 20% and finally 40% with the 1 – 1 = 0 and 0 – 1 = -1 math?

Missing algorithm in your arguement?

A non sequitur even for you.

_______________________________

Trump people, try and do some EC math, if you can as it is only addition and subtaction, and you will find it is near mathematically impossible for Trump to win.

Saying so, with no support for your assertions, is trite…fanboy dotmatic juvenile diverging from reality thinking, put to print.

The only thing that can same Trump is God himself or Armageddon.

It is unlikely God cares.

Let me know if you see the 4 Horsemen any time soon.

bsant

#153 Who luvs ya baby on 10.29.16 at 2:23 pm

#134 Context on 10.29.16 at 11:51 am

I have a pellet stove for my shack in the woods with my chimney out the wall. Why burn wood as use corn instead for a cleaner burn using a hopper. It costs me nothing as have trained my dog to go into the farmer’s field to fetch them cobs all day long for storage to be dried out.


That is genuine awesomeness of the highest order.

#154 Metaxa on 10.29.16 at 2:31 pm

@ 193 TJ yesterday:
182 – Metaxa – Funny stuff, you guys in the sticks competing with each other as to who can throw more cash into their bottomless pits. All that money would have been better off invested (well, except for the new roof, I’m guessing they needed that one).

You miss the point entirely.
Fact of the matter is we all actually have the money to do repairs and renovations that please us because of where we live.

You know, like backing onto a year round salmon stream, surrounded by centuries old trees, minutes away from any services desired, no need for a Metamucil fueled commute. Sub $2,000 property taxes and although I’m in town we live in a six to the acre neighbourhood. Its an actual walk to either neighbors front door from mine.

And do not worry about me…I have lots invested as well.

Life is good.

#155 Context on 10.29.16 at 2:48 pm

#99 Catch22: The west end is a mixed bag but if your buying or renting make your target location Port Credit near the Go Train.

#156 AB Boxster on 10.29.16 at 3:03 pm


What a sad, pathetic site this is. — Garth

————————————————–
Actually I think its really just an accurate representation of what a strong majority of people think about the information that they now receive.

Unfortunately, so much of the information we now consume, whether it comes from the mainstream media, or corporations, or government, is based upon selling a perspective, selling a product or selling and ideology.

Everything we read or hear seems to have an angle to it.

In fact it is likely, that it always did.
Corporations have always spun their product to increase sales. It’s called marketing.

The mainstream media have always provided their own perspective. – It’s called Making News

Governments have always provided their their own views. – It’s called Spin.

What is different now is that the general public is far more knowledgeable about the fact that they are being manipulated today, and have been manipulated in the past.

And because of the rise of the internet and social media, the marketing, news making, and spin has become far more aggressive, outrageous, and ideological.

But the internet and social media has also provided a forum for contrary views, the expose of the spin and lies.

The first real example of this occurred during the Vietnam War.
During this time, while the US government was extolling the virtues of the War on Communism and the military government propaganda machine worked overtime to tell the American people about the just war and the great American fighting machine’s success, the news networks were showing images of the US atrocities, the civilian and GI carnage and the failure of American policy.
So whereas the message was once controlled by the govt/military, the media once showed the lies, deceit and spin.
The MSM does not do that anymore.

People always suspected that corporations would lie to further their own success.
Over the years the MSM championed that cause and eventually exposed many corporations for their shoddy ethics, deadly products, etc.
The MSM does not do this anymore.

However, while most citizens always recognized that governments and politicians actually bent the truth or tried to spin a perspective, many did not really believe that there would be an organized and sincere attempt to blatantly lie to the populace to achieve their goals.

Government actions over the year have shown this to be a huge mistake on part of citizenry.
Once, a US President was impeached over a simple break in at the Watergate Hotel even though it was never proved he was involved.

Today, countries are invaded, hundreds of thousands of civilians killed, all based on blatant government lies about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
And there are no repercussions for the lies and the carnage for the governments or leaders.

Snowdon and Wikileaks have shown have far down the rabbit hole that governments have gone to lie, spy and spin. And mostly governments and leaders have shown little or no interest in doing any better.

So today, a large portion of the population essentially mistrusts much of the information that comes from MSM.
They really don’t believe much of what corporations say about their products is true.
And they don’t believe most statistics and information that come from government agencies or politicians.

Can this genie be put back in the bottle?
Not likely.
It’s pretty hard to say:
“Yes we know we lied to you in the past, but you should really believe us now”

And it’s a little silly to ridicule those that mistrust the information that is being offered up by the MSM, corporations and now particularly government.

I mean, the well is pretty much poisoned, so taking the perspective that we should all be drinking from it is a little rich.

#157 Mr. Frugal on 10.29.16 at 3:56 pm

True, but I was not discussing REIT distribution. Your comment and link are irrelevant. — Garth
__________________________________________

Wrong. I’m deplorable but certainly not irrelevant.

#158 IHCTD9 on 10.29.16 at 5:38 pm

#153 Metaxa on 10.29.16 at 2:31 pm
@ 193 TJ yesterday:
182 – Metaxa – Funny stuff, you guys in the sticks competing with each other as to who can throw more cash into their bottomless pits. All that money would have been better off invested (well, except for the new roof, I’m guessing they needed that one).

You miss the point entirely.
Fact of the matter is we all actually have the money to do repairs and renovations that please us because of where we live.

You know, like backing onto a year round salmon stream, surrounded by centuries old trees, minutes away from any services desired, no need for a Metamucil fueled commute. Sub $2,000 property taxes and although I’m in town we live in a six to the acre neighbourhood. Its an actual walk to either neighbors front door from mine.

And do not worry about me…I have lots invested as well.

Life is good.
—————-

A lot of folks out my way do their own renovations, myself included. Most guys out here my age worked in their youth in construction, landscaping, roofing, agriculture, picking up knowledge that paid dividends later on in life as homeowners. I was a car guy as well, so up till now I basically did it all, worked on the house and the vehicles. My old farm house has greatly benefited from the stuff I learned as a young man busting my balls at labour jobs. It’s not uncommon this way to see a homeowner on the roof of his own house with a few buddies shovelling off the old shingles on a Friday evening, and seeing a new roof up there Monday morning along with a few empty cases of beer stacked in the driveway :)

#159 IHCTD9 on 10.29.16 at 5:51 pm

#150 Wrk.dover on 10.29.16 at 1:52 pm
IHCTD9 and any other burners: wood pellets start in the woods, and are value added by…
—–

I shudder to think what electric heat would run to heat my place! The old oil burner in the basement ate 4 tanks a year, I went to pellets when oil hit .75/l, but it eventually became about the same cost as gasoline which at one point was 1.50/l. We’re talking $6000.00 a year at the peak, electricity would probably be this much every year.

Sure I’ll be in for some work to cut costs and taxation, but that’s fine, that’s been my MO since forever, trading dollars for brain and manpower – plus I have two young boys to help add value to the equation:)

#160 CHINA on 10.29.16 at 8:25 pm

DELETED

#161 45north on 10.29.16 at 9:29 pm

Shared Services:

The Conservative government estimated the new system designed by Bell would save taxpayers $50 million annually by taking advantage of economies of scale. Those savings have not been realized.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/bagnall-older-government-systems-showing-age-revealing-the-price-of-email-delay

technically it was the Conservative government but it was really the senior civil service. They were the ones who proposed it and estimated the cost. there is not nor will there ever be any savings! Remember that the budget for Shared Services is $1.4 billion a year.

the real reason for Shared Services was bureaucratic control

#162 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.29.16 at 9:31 pm

@155 AB Boxster-

That was the best post I’ve seen on here ever. People are waking up.

#163 Smoking Man on 10.29.16 at 9:58 pm

https://youtu.be/JSUIQgEVDM4

There going to kill me

I’m cool with it

#164 Smoking Man on 10.29.16 at 10:11 pm

My song
https://youtu.be/a2zgmKtH_7M

#165 Smoking Man on 10.29.16 at 10:36 pm

My song
https://youtu.be/a2zgmKtH_7M

https://youtu.be/_Fydw wthgLeM

#166 The Wet Coast on 10.30.16 at 11:29 am

#151 What the heck, 1 – 1 = 0? and Trump People

OK Einstein.

Joey Canuck buys a house.

Sell or moves from a rental +1 (from total housing stock)

Buy or rent another house -1 (from total housing stock)

1 – 1 = 0

Foreigner buys a house or a speculator that does not rent.

Sells or rents a new house in the local area 0
Buys or rents a new house in the local area -1

0 – 1 = -1 from local housing stock.

Sooo….A local has a net impact of zero on local inventory when they buy or rent a new place to live. Buy one and sell one. A foreigner reduces the housing stock by one. The impact of this is to double the impact of a foreigners’ purchase on the market. So if they are buying 10% it has the same impact as 20%. This assumes the relationship is linear which it may not be. At some point the relationship is impacted by FOMO and goes exponential. That’s what we have seen in the last couple of years.

What’s gone on in Vancouver and specific cities around the world was predictable and I am not altogether certain wasn’t gamed by some very cleaver people.