War

bastard-modified-modified

So what will the numbers look like next week? As far as Vancouver goes, they’ll be brutal. Casualties downtown plus in the burbs.  And if Will Dunning’s correct, people in Halifax, Winnipeg, Victoria and that flat part in the middle can expect more of the same.

In a moment, the latest body count from YVR. First, what economist Dunning says is going to happen. By the way, this guy’s been in the housing analysis biz for 34 years, half of which were spent at CMHC. These days he’s chief economist for Mortgage Professionals Canada. Pray for him.

Dunning has released a report called ‘Slamming on the Brakes’ wherein he claims the finance minister’s October 3rd announcement (including the MST – Moister Stress Test) is about to rip through the entire real estate market. This is what he forecasts.

  • Activity nationally will decline by up to 20%.
  • “These effects will occur in all regions of the country. The majority of market areas in Canada will move from balanced to weakness.”
  • The economy will be hit. “Job losses will occur as a result of a weakened housing market.”
  • Families will stop buying until prices plunge. Yes, the reverse of FOMO. “Expectations of price reductions can deter potential buyers from purchasing, with the potential to cause prices to fall by more than they ‘should’. This would be a self-reinforcing expectation…”
  • About 50,000 construction jobs will be lost.
  • Rents will rise, since fewer people will be buying and vacancy rates squeezed.
  • Mortgage rates will increase, as the MST reduces loan volumes and leads to less competition.

Ouch. Could such things actually occur here in Canada – where the laws of economics don’t apply? Where interest rates can never rise and caesarstone counters are an inalienable right?

Actually, they already are. So don your combat helmut and flak vest and crawl with me through the razorwire into the mayhem of Vancouver. Hey, here’s famous local realtor Steve Saretsky lying prone in a puddle of indistinguishable battle goo. Whazzup, Steve?

“It’s evident we have witnessed the peak of home prices,” he whispers weakly, quoting his recent blog. “I believe we have just witnessed one of the most impressive housing bubbles in history.” A small scarlet rivulet flows from the corner of his mouth.

The fact is buyer demand has crashed and burned as a result of Morneau’s mortgage mayhem, combined with the Chinese Dudes tax, layered over a market which speculation and greed had shoved to unsustainable heights. The sales-to-active listing ratio has cratered, and demand’s fallen every single month since it peaked in March. Van West, Van East, Richmond and Burnaby are now all (officially) buyers’ markets, with almost a year’s worth of houses piling up.

“Demand continues to drop,” Steve murmurs, his twitching face bearing witness to the blunt agony of shattered limbs, perforated organs and lost commissions. “The detached market clearly favours the buyer and will almost surely be the same for the condo/townhouse market in the coming months. It seems like an absolute certainty that the new lending policies will slow the market further.” And he goes silent.

On the battlefield, sellers are losing badly. In the first three weeks of October sales have collapsed year/year by 72% (almost 760 last year, just 150 now). Average prices have quickly and dramatically retreated to 2014 levels, and continue to erode. Six months ago 61% of all detached homes trading hands sold for more than the vendors were asking. This month that’s dropped to just 11% – proving there are some greater fools left on the loose.

This means almost 90% of all detached houses in YVR – the crown jewels of Canadian real estate a year ago – are trading for less than list. Soon it will be 100%, and soon after that, prices will fade as buyers realize bidding wars are done, sellers are getting whipped, and they can pony up a lot less. It’ll take some time for this message to ripple, street-to-street, given the opacity of real estate information. After all, the first casualty of war is truth.

At the moment there are about 3,400 detached houses on the market in Vancouver. This month 150 sold. Do the math. Prepare.

emotions

237 comments ↓

#1 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.26.16 at 5:22 pm

OK, I’m not sure how else to spell it out but, all I ever said was:

“Harper left office with a 941 Million deficit Oct 2015”

and

“Trudeau deficit for 2016 is estimated at 34 Billion”

That’s it, nothing else, just what is above.

Marko and CJBobo are losing it

Can’t handle the depression

Lol

#2 Exilled on 10.26.16 at 5:28 pm

Sir Garth:
I do not believe that you are being vindictive!! But, you have warned the part of us who have not listened to your message!! Now ” its payback time “. But not this puppy.No debt, diversified portfolio, still breathing! Life is good!

#3 JRH on 10.26.16 at 5:33 pm

Lots of rental incentives offered now !!

#4 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 10.26.16 at 5:33 pm

I am not sensing or experiencing any of that at all.

But if the MSM, and Garth, keep pumping that line then eventually Buyers will begin to believe and put on hold any decision until about 6 months after prices have started to rise again. Ever thus, too late to get out… to late to get in. You can’t time the markets and, anyway, real estate is a long term hold not a speculative short term venture in trade.

SHIFT happens };-)

#5 pathcontrolmonk on 10.26.16 at 5:36 pm

BCREA’s Chief Shill – Cameron Muir doesn’t have much to say these days, other than the new rules will destroy hopes and dreams of millenials. Isn’t that sweet, he cares.

#6 Jungle on 10.26.16 at 5:43 pm

OMG those numbers are scary.
Wonder how GTA will do.
Not looking forward to renewing my mortgage next year!

#7 Frank on 10.26.16 at 5:47 pm

As always, real estate is local. I get sales for my neighborhood in 604 sent to me and prices are not at 2014 levels. They’re at January 2016 levels, so not quite May but still 25% over 2014. Why? I dunno, local gossip is that places here are smaller and perfect for downsizers so people have sensed a peak and as cashing out in Dunbar and buying something half the prices, smaller and closer to the city now that they dont need a yard for kids.

I just checked, of all the sales in my hood 65% are over list still in the last 3 weeks.

So everything is local, don’t let wild swings up or down in one listing or one street be a trend. Make sure you look at different levels.

“I just checked, of all the sales in my hood 65% are over list still in the last 3 weeks.” That means you’re a realtor, or you make this stuff up. Which is it? — Garth

#8 Entrepreneur on 10.26.16 at 5:49 pm

T2 is definitely is being scrutinized but as he should be; he made the promises to get elected. Or were the promises made with false pretense for another purpose in mind.

U.S. has a problem (so does Canada) and the news media does not display the issues or do not understand the real problem(s): the leaders make international trade deals behind closed doors and leave citizens out.

A leader protecting his citizens from CETA, wow, we should have more of him. He should be given a metal! A leader listening to the people and concerned about them.

Listen to the people of that nation; govern by the people of that nation.

#9 Waiting on 10.26.16 at 5:50 pm

I have an unemployed friend in YVR who owns two homes, one with a mortgage and one inherited which is a rented out oldie on which maintenance, repairs and taxes were eating up most of the income. I was receiving almost weekly updates on their fantastic increase in value and a dig at my “you should really sell one and cash out” mentality of the past year. The phone calls have stopped recently …

#10 Chaddywack on 10.26.16 at 5:51 pm

Serious Question for the Garth and/or the Dogs

Any predictions on how long this downturn in Vancouver will last? I thought the market was cooked in 2008/09 and it came roaring back in a matter of months and well….look where we are now…..

Any thoughts?

#11 RentYVR on 10.26.16 at 5:53 pm

Still crazy that anything has sold here this month, let alone over the asking price. You seriously need to have balls of steel to be buying now.

#12 BS on 10.26.16 at 5:53 pm

At the moment there are about 3,400 detached houses on the market in Vancouver. This month 150 sold. Do the math.

3400/150 = 22.6 months. On average a house just listed today will sell in September 2018. Hopefully people have not bought already. That’s a long time to wait and make payments on two houses.

Any realtors out there have any ideas on how to move to the front of the line? Maybe a 20% price cut from a recent comparable sale? The slaughter will start in early Spring as sellers undercut each other trying to get out.

#13 Gollum on 10.26.16 at 5:55 pm

Many blog posts ago, I read a comment which stated “Even if the market crashes 50%, Vancouver home prices will still be at 2012 levels. Anyone who bought back then will still be breaking even”.

If that’s true, will a housing market correction just set us back a few years at the most?

#14 Boombust on 10.26.16 at 5:55 pm

Hi Garth,

This IS what is happening out here on the “Wet Coast” alright. However, you’d never know it after listening to Robin Adamache (CMHC) on CKNW’s Simi Sara show today…talk about DUMB. Full of “Ums, ums, and more ums”…)

Since I was driving in the car, i was unable to grab the cell phone and let her have it when they opened the lines for callers…

On another (sad) note my OTHER favourite “bubble blog” (Vancouver Condo Info) has been hacked by some “Sid” creep from overseas.

Hmm, I wonder if this is yet another conspiracy designed to keep a lid on things…

#15 Boombust on 10.26.16 at 5:57 pm

#5…too funny!

Yep, not a peep out of Muir!

#16 BS on 10.26.16 at 5:58 pm

7 Frank on 10.26.16 at 5:47 pm

“I just checked, of all the sales in my hood 65% are over list still in the last 3 weeks.” That means you’re a realtor, or you make this stuff up. Which is it? — Garth

Probably both. No way are 65% of sales over asking in any YVR hood and yes only a realtor has access to this information.

#17 Boombust on 10.26.16 at 6:00 pm

#10…

The reason the market came back in 2008 is that Harper and Flaherty goosed it with 0% down and 40 year mortgages among other things…

So, out former “economist” PM has a lot of ‘splainin’ to do right about now.

#18 Same Same on 10.26.16 at 6:01 pm

“Rents will rise, since fewer people will be buying and vacancy rates squeezed.”

That is what I have been saying for the last 6 months – you already saw rents rise as sales were declining 6 months ago and things will only get worse.

As sales collapse, recent sellers go to the sideline with the existing renting pool and sideliners, eating up all the existing housing stock. Nobody wants to catch a falling knife. If you think the 0% vacancy rate in almost every major city is bad now, its going to get a lot worse.

I have notice how no one wants to take on this truth and refute it – all of have been silent because all know deep down that this is the truth.

Renters have pooched themselves as they know have to wait for prices to fall for many many years while the amount they spend on rent will be more than the lost equity and mortgage payments.

#19 Franco on 10.26.16 at 6:04 pm

The greater fool is he who doesn’t think on his own. The cost of opportunity of following your advice blindly is astonishing, Garth. I would like to know how many people have made money on RE during all these years (I started reading around 2011 I believe) that you have been predicting this correction. I certainly have.

Great. Hope you sold and crystallized he gains when I suggested. — Garth

#20 RentYVR on 10.26.16 at 6:06 pm

@#18 same same

That doesn’t make sense. If houses/condos are not selling than they will be turned into rental units rather than sit empty. So the overall rental supply will increase not decrease and rents could actually fall.

#21 Saint John Proud! on 10.26.16 at 6:07 pm

Waiting for despair; per the graph above.

Or have I already found it by hanging out in this comment section?

#22 Speed Up the Crash on 10.26.16 at 6:08 pm

If people want to speed up the crash, be sure to send the particular Garth posts that have the quantitative data to close family and friends.

The posts talking about actual price drops and sales collapse have scared the crap of of my family and associates as all they see are the mainstream media coverage. Its no longer someone just warning now – its actual stats that paint an irrefutable picture and one that cannot be denied.

Grassroots activism at its best – take to all social media as well! It will spread even faster.

#23 james on 10.26.16 at 6:12 pm

#2

You don’t understand asset bubbles.

All that is required is for the public to realize that prices will not continue to go up.

They don’t have to realize that prices will go down.

It is the expectation of future gains that provides the incentive to invest in markets that are at historic peaks. Take that away, and things change. I suggest reading about Tulip Mania or the South Seas bubble.

#24 james on 10.26.16 at 6:13 pm

#18

“Renters have pooched themselves as they know have to wait for prices to fall for many many years while the amount they spend on rent will be more than the lost equity and mortgage payments.”

What meds are you on? Carrying costs for most dwellings in Canadian cities are actually much higher than rents. In Vancouver it is probably 3x.

#25 Marc on 10.26.16 at 6:14 pm

We need a term to replace FOMO… a couple suggestions:

FOBRO (Fear Of Being Ripped Off)

FOGS (Fear Of Getting Screwed)

#26 Victoria Real Estate Update on 10.26.16 at 6:19 pm

That Vancouver’a housing market is in a bubble is old news for most and few try to deny it.

Vancouver’s correction/crash will be spectacular.

#27 Frustrated Kiwi on 10.26.16 at 6:19 pm

A question I find interesting is where one should draw that mean trend line for housing. There is some argument that, adjusted for inflation, it should be flat:
https://hotelivory.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/a-very-long-view-on-house-prices/
After all, in the long run, the median house is bought by a person with a median income.

However, women entering the job market are probably one reason for a structural shift in prices, perhaps there are others? One could perhaps analyse Japan, given its peak was so long ago – anyone seen anything on this? I don’t like the graphs the Economist puts out as they are all normalised by long term averages. They show Japan as undervalued, whereas actually their price to income ratios are still high.

Would love to hear other thoughts on where that mean trend line should be drawn (for Vancouver or anywhere).

#28 Goldie on 10.26.16 at 6:23 pm

Crawling further into the field, beneath more rows of barbed wire and over pocked mud, you take temporary cover by slithering into a large foxhole which had recently been grazed by an artillery strike. To your dismay, you come upon the badly mangled remains of Brad Lamb. He is barely recognizable beneath the mud, and in the dim light of the foxhole his head appears to be smiling, as if he had been completely unaware of his impending doom and was in the middle of laughing at a joke or perhaps relaying a funny story to the soldier next to him, now nowhere to be found.

In death all is forgiven, so you search about his unnaturally twisted torso for his final note to his family. Finding it stashed in a small ziplock bag inside his blood soaked breast pocket, you tuck it into your sack before crawling forward out of the hole, promising Brad that if you make it out of this alive, you’ll find his family and deliver the note to them.

But you have your doubts that you will make it much further.

#29 nothingtaboo on 10.26.16 at 6:24 pm

Just picked up a 2 bedroom rental for just over $500/month in Spain. Will enjoy the sun, warmth and lower cost of living for the next five months.

Enjoy the housing disaster in Canada.

#30 Lulu on 10.26.16 at 6:26 pm

With all the attention focus on YYZ YVR, what about YYC, their oil and energy sector was dead, no doubt, but seem their housing stand pretty firm regarding the not so high end property, I knew Garth had mentioned from before that their luxury one go way down, but seem the general public hold it pretty tight or the media never really mention it too widely about how bad it is or is it?

If YYC holding it pretty firm consider their condition, then YYZ YVR should be no problem to hold it as well or not? I’m interested to know how it play out.

#31 comment re: zolo.ca on 10.26.16 at 6:28 pm

On the subject of opacity – I recently noted that the link to the “Trends” section on zolo.ca for Canmore, AB, abruptly disappeared about 10 days ago. The URL still works – see: https://www.zolo.ca/canmore-real-estate/trends – but it has not been updated since Oct 15. If zolo.ca is supposed to be all about improving transparency, I wonder why the transparency has just disappeared for Canmore?

Interesting fact from the link above: only two condos (no townhouses or detached houses) sold in the 28-day period ending on Oct 15. Average price: $295K; Yearly change: -57.6%. Did someone pull some strings to get zolo to hide this data?

Has anyone else noticed disappearance of zolo “Trends” for other locations?

#32 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 6:29 pm

Yup looks like YVR is screwed. Now watch the listing fall off the face of the earth.

Canadians are stubbornly stupid when it comes to this stuff.

Would rather die than take a lose.

#33 John in TO on 10.26.16 at 6:33 pm

Ok, so now that Vancouver housing market is under assault. Can we expect Toronto to follow? Or do you need the 15% foreign buyers tax implemented to bring Toronto back to reality?

#34 Mr Reality on 10.26.16 at 6:38 pm

The trend is your friend until it is not. Looks like if this is indeed the market starting its inevitable reversion to the mean there are millions of people who will hate the trend.

Mr R

#35 N on 10.26.16 at 6:39 pm

Interesting chart. Wondering what the mean would be for the GTA

#36 Mark on 10.26.16 at 6:44 pm

“Marko and CJBobo are losing it
Can’t handle the depression”

What are you talking about? The fact that Harper added $260B+ of additional debt (ie: ran cumulative deficits of $260B+) is very clearly seen on the Bank of Canada website listing the outstanding issuance of T-Bills and T-Bonds.

Let me put it to you another way. If you spend $100, but only take in $50, at the end of the year, you will have a deficit of $50, and debt of $50.

The claim that Harper only had a $900M deficit in his last year in office is about as dishonest as it gets. He lost the election because the electorate was simply tired of such dishonest information. Additionally, the claims of the CBC do not pass scrutiny either given that the debt of Canada increased more than twice their claimed deficit figures.

“Many blog posts ago, I read a comment which stated “Even if the market crashes 50%, Vancouver home prices will still be at 2012 levels. Anyone who bought back then will still be breaking even”. “

Vancouver/Toronto prices stopped rising in 2013, so decreases going forward would bring prices beneath 2013 levels.

#37 Trigger Finger on 10.26.16 at 6:44 pm

HALLELUJAH!

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.16 at 6:45 pm

Stats dont matter Garth .
Bdry Skytrn has friends and local experience to back up his arguements.
Vancouver is going up up up!

#39 bb on 10.26.16 at 6:45 pm

Only short term “flippers” will be affected here. They can always rent out their properties and take advantage of rising rents. Renters will subsidize landlords’ mortgages.

#40 Maj on 10.26.16 at 6:47 pm

CMHC red alert…Hamilton home buyers priced out:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/hamilton-homebuyers-priced-out-moving-to-brantford-st-catharines-cmhc-1.3822092

#41 Madcat on 10.26.16 at 6:48 pm

Finally! Our broken clock has it’s glory days at last!!!

#42 Trumpppppet on 10.26.16 at 6:53 pm

DELETED

#43 not 1st on 10.26.16 at 6:53 pm

I can’t wait to see moister millennials, realtor shills and ‘out to lunch’ contractors all on the street.

This is going to be glorious.

#44 Andrew t on 10.26.16 at 6:57 pm

Nice post. You didn’t hold back on the descriptors today!

#45 Winterpeg on 10.26.16 at 6:57 pm

So… we’re in the “bull trap” part of that graph, or still in denial?

#46 i.see.dedt.people on 10.26.16 at 7:02 pm

Bing on the crash!!!!!!!!!! Timmmmmmmberrrrrrr

#47 not 1st on 10.26.16 at 7:03 pm

But… Garth shouldn’t relax either…

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/26/david-rosenberg-says-it-is-late-in-the-game-for-the-stock-market-and-us-economy.html

Rosie says invest defensively. I do that daily. — Garth

#48 bigtowne on 10.26.16 at 7:04 pm

When we moved out to Nanaimo, B.C. in 1991 the market was very bleak as we toured an in town development for a lot. The lot was approximately 1/4 acre semi ocean front with all the services in (development fees included paid by the developer) and we got it for $36,000 in the Departure Bay area.

We were encouraged at the abundance of well-priced properties so maybe a result of this cratering market will be much more available pricing data for the potential buyer. The agents in Nanaimo were very honest and did not pull any punches.

I hear in Oakville the development fees for a single family home hit $50,000 per lot.

Tesla is burning through millions quarter after quarter and former GM CEO Mr. Lutz questions the possible future of this great no carbon footprint enterprise.

#49 Julie K. on 10.26.16 at 7:05 pm

By far, the most disturbing factoid in today’s post;

“After all, the first casualty of war is truth.”

#peace

#50 I don't know! on 10.26.16 at 7:05 pm

No foreign tax in TO and money remains cheap and available. Still many happy days ahead.

#51 mouldyinYVR on 10.26.16 at 7:06 pm

……just remember…..in the future, when you go to buy a condo in YVR at some delicious ‘new, reduced, never before seen price’, do your due diligence. Check the depreciation report (make a quick retreat if there isn’t one), think about the guts of the building rather than just the ‘looks’.
Do your homework re: age of building (remember in YVR 25 year old condos are OLD and will face major plumbing, elevator, envelope repairs, interior refurbishing etc. These repairs could set you back 100,000’s. (yes, that’s 5 zeros not 4 and it’s your share -not for the whole building!)
Remember in YVR the monthly condo fees cover the cost of running the building on a day to day basis. You will pay special levies in BC for repairs etc. That means your money. And NO – insurance does not cover all the costs if there is internal damage from leaks etc. Insurance companies are very wary of YVR low rise and high rise condos. After all there’s only so much they can dish out for water ingress, mould damage, plumbing leaks etc.
Buyer beware.
Thanks Garth – I am a happy renter!

#52 Popeye the sailor man on 10.26.16 at 7:08 pm

Would 2008-09 count as the “Bull Trap” in Vancouver?

#53 Freedom First on 10.26.16 at 7:11 pm

Yes. Going down down down….

Meanwhile, it’s been a while since my last Alberta update. Of course, keeping in mind that when I started my Alberta updates in the fall of 2014, people on this Blog were calling me a liar because if things were going down as fast as I reported, they would have read it by now in the msm.

Fast forward to today. EI money, severance money and cashed out retirement funds are long gone or near the end. Numerous people have been unemployed for 2 years, unable to find anything, while many more have passed 6, 12, and 18 months with the same result. Others are now working for very low wages compared to before, which only temporarily slowed their descent to panic. Unfortunately, many individuals and families are at the end of their rope. I take no joy in listening to the hardships people are living. They are now desperate.

Keep in mind, my work over the years has taken me across the Province. I know everybody.

#54 Rock Beats Paper on 10.26.16 at 7:11 pm

You could easily fit the bond market and US stock market right at “new paradigm” on that chart. TINA.

#55 Love My Kia on 10.26.16 at 7:11 pm

The drop in RE prices has come about in a way that no one including Garth had ever expected.

A rise in interest rates wasn’t needed at all to make this happen.

I thank wild Bill for privatizing the losses on this house of cards. About time.

#56 common sense on 10.26.16 at 7:15 pm

Had a little chat with a friend who is a long time successful realtor in small town Southern Ontario today.

“I had a GREAT year until the recent changes…IF the gov’t had made the re-qualifying % at only 1% over the initial rate, we would all be happy….but at these terms, we are all pooched….”

#57 Bottoms_Up on 10.26.16 at 7:17 pm

I would hate to have been a “winner” of a bidding war, anywhere in Canada, over the past year. The 5% down crew is certainly under water.

#58 boomer88 on 10.26.16 at 7:19 pm

David Rosenberg: stock market is late in the game

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-all-signs-are-flashing-this-market-is-late-in-the-game

Stocks are in a bubble, bonds are in a bubble, real estate is in the bubble, cash in not safe in bank.

Pretty scary situation, because shth is just about the hit the fan….

Totally not what he said. Can’t you read? — Garth

#59 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 7:19 pm

Reporting from the heart of the American Dream in the chairman’s loung. Entrance is 170k usd cycled into slot machine every 6 months. Been a member of this club of privileged for 4 years.

I’ve surveyd 11 people of all stripes.

1 Hillary supporter
10 Trump supporters.

MSM LIES!!!!

BET ACCORDINGLY!!!

#60 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 10.26.16 at 7:22 pm

If you are “IN” the market, it doesn’t matter if your house went up or not. If it did go up it’s likely so that virtually all others did too.

If you’re “IN” the market and your home went down in value why despair. If it did go down it’s likely that virtually everything else did as well.

The real finesse is considered to be to know when to get “IN”… or “OUT” as the case may be. But really… it’s a 50/50 gamble.

Why not think about what works best for you and your family aside from the financial considerations?

Ask anyone who “GOT IN” ten or more years ago if they regret that decision. You know what the answer will be.

Real Estate is a long term hold and primarily for reasons other than financial. Not stuff you want to “gamble” with, but because it works for you, you can afford it (buying within a conservative budget) and timing is right for your life be damned the market.

#61 Brian on 10.26.16 at 7:31 pm

Shocking that 150 homes sold. Whos stupid enough to buy right now? My guess is people with enough cash that waiting is too big an inconvenience and they just dont care. OR the fools who are drunk on the kool aid. My poor buddy – he just spend almost 900K on a ho hum house in CLOVERDALE, bidding war and all. Extreme FOMO

#62 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central on 10.26.16 at 7:35 pm

Loading up on rental-focused REITs since April of this year..

#63 MSM-Free Zone on 10.26.16 at 7:37 pm

“….I believe we have just witnessed one of the most impressive housing bubbles in history….”
_________________________

“Impressive”? The self-serving arrogance in that statement is beyond belief.

#64 MF on 10.26.16 at 7:39 pm

#179 DON on 10.26.16 at 2:41 pm

Agreed. Change is here.

“People under 40 need to read non MSM also to get an idea of the past and the over 40 crowd needs to remember the past. Problem partially solved (education stage).”

-Indeed.

#173 Grey Dog on 10.26.16 at 1:57 pm

You are correct. Did some reading and that movement is not entirely what I thought it was, or want to be part of lol. I thought it was more about Milo or Ben Shapiro. I consider myself center right, or sort of where the Canadian conservatives lie. I identify with that political platform.

MF

#65 S.Bby on 10.26.16 at 7:40 pm

I propose the opposite of FOMO is FOBI (Fear of Buying in).

In other news, there is now an app to let employees borrow up to 50% of their salary per pay period ahead of time. This is being piloted by DeDutch Pannekok House among other employers and the app is apparently already indispensable with tapped out employees who live paycheque to paycheque. Some people are so pickled in debt they have to take regular advances on their pay by using this app.
On the plus side, this app will give payday loan companies some competition.

#66 MSM-Free Zone on 10.26.16 at 7:41 pm

“….The majority of market areas in Canada will move from balanced to weakness…..”
_________________________

Google translation from REALTURD®bafflegab to English:
“The majority of market areas in Canada will move from unaffordable to affordable.”

#67 BobbyJack on 10.26.16 at 7:43 pm

I like Steve Saretsky, one of the few realtors who present some `facts`, differently than RE Board (Cartel).

I read Garth and Steve regularly, they should be on the same side. :). RE Cartel should be `the dark side of the force`.

#68 Colin the Colin on 10.26.16 at 7:53 pm

My friend bought a house on the East Side for $1.5M in April. Decent house with an unfinished basement on a smaller lot. Early this month a nicer house on a bigger lot with a finished basement came on the market a block away for $1.48. He was bummed out. It’s not a big price difference (yet) but it’s definitely happening.

#69 S.Bby on 10.26.16 at 7:58 pm

#18 Same Same
As sales collapse, recent sellers go to the sideline with the existing renting pool and sideliners, eating up all the existing housing stock. Nobody wants to catch a falling knife. If you think the 0% vacancy rate in almost every major city is bad now, its going to get a lot worse.

================================

No. First of all there are not enough “recent sellers” to make any substantial difference in the rental market.
Most would be sellers will not sell but they will chase the market down, not wanting to sell for less than what they think their place is “worth”.
Any few “recent sellers” will not want to rent; it is a foreign concept to them. They may downsize but they will buy again. Remember that they think renting is “throwing their money away”.

#70 Speed up the crash on 10.26.16 at 8:00 pm

If you are “IN” the market, it doesn’t matter if your house went up or not. If it did go up it’s likely so that virtually all others did too.

If you’re “IN” the market and your home went down in value why despair. If it did go down it’s likely that virtually everything else did as well.

The real finesse is considered to be to know when to get “IN”… or “OUT” as the case may be. But really… it’s a 50/50 gamble.

Why not think about what works best for you and your family aside from the financial considerations?

Ask anyone who “GOT IN” ten or more years ago if they regret that decision. You know what the answer will be.

Real Estate is a long term hold and primarily for reasons other than financial. Not stuff you want to “gamble” with, but because it works for you, you can afford it (buying within a conservative budget) and timing is right for your life be damned the market.

———

Spoken like a true realtor. Ask a realtor when its a good time to buy or sell and the answer is….’always.’

Because for them it is always as they get a commissions cheque on the way up and down of any RE cycle.

Your statement about those who are ‘IN’ is just ridiculous. If they are ‘IN’ and their house goes down in value, then all is good because the next house went down too. Really?

If your house goes down with little equity in it, then you are effectively underwater genius and your house becomes a life sentence. If you have extra cash to pay out the underwater portion of your mortgage when you go to buy your next house that has ‘equally gone down’ then great. If you do not, then you are pooched.

Guess how many Canadians have that extra cash laying around with our 168% debt to income ratio and near negative savings rate and tendency to use our houses as ATM’s? Riiiighhhht – now you see the problem.

#71 bdwy sktrn on 10.26.16 at 8:03 pm

here is the sum total of ALL sales in grandview over the past 7 days.

avg dom 10
2 over ask
1 at ask
1 under ask

sold – 2 days ago
2620 TURNER STREET list $1,498,000 sell $1,570,000 dom 6

sold – 3 days ago
2765 VENABLES STREET $1,050,000 $1,050,000 dom3

sold 5 days ago – condo
1815 CHARLES STREET $1,049,000 $1,060,000 dom8

sold 7 days ago
2435 E 8TH AVENUE $1,398,000 $1,300,000 dom23

only one of these is a livable house with updates completed since the 1980’s , guess which one?

#72 jay on 10.26.16 at 8:16 pm

Why worry ,you can just sit back and wait for your beer to be delivered to you by a self driving truck. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/uber-self-driving-truck-packed-with-budweiser-makes-first-delivery-in-colorado

#73 S.Bby on 10.26.16 at 8:16 pm

#71 bdwy sktrn
only one of these is a livable house with updates completed since the 1980’s , guess which one?
===============================
Um, yours?

Anyways, six months ago these would have sold for $500,000 more. Let the decline continue…

#74 toronto1 on 10.26.16 at 8:18 pm

The velocity and scope of the decline will surprise most people, I believe even Garth.

I have said here before, the last time we had a defacto interest rate of 4.6% and a tightening of credit was Q2 2008 to Q2 2009. Watch for similar effects, average home in GTA was 400K at that time.

If you thought that people where irrational when prices where climbing, wait until the sentiment changes. fear of losing gains is not the same as a real fear of going bankrupt

To many people over stretched themselves buying their first home or investment property.

Genworth said that under the new mortgage regulations, 15-30% would not qualify– thats huge!
add into it the surveys with how little Canadians have saved and how many are a paycheque or two away from ruin and you should get a pretty gloomy picture that is quite accurate.

#75 joblo on 10.26.16 at 8:23 pm

The economy will be hit. “Job losses will occur as a result of a weakened housing market.”

“About 50,000 construction jobs will be lost.”

In dollar terms just how big a hit could this be?

We talkin BILLIONS here?

#76 GreaterFool D. on 10.26.16 at 8:26 pm

@#32 Correction
Delete: “would rather die than take a loss”
Add: “will eat drywall before taking a hit”
This way it sounds more realistic.

#77 Doug t on 10.26.16 at 8:27 pm

Dominoe effect – and if you think things are getting scary just wait till after the U.S. deflection is over – 2017 will prove to be a sh*t show no matter who loses.

RATM

#78 bdwy sktrn on 10.26.16 at 8:32 pm

this is a block with many sales. all below are teardowns but one, all same lot size, same block

sold – 3 days ago
2765 VENABLES STREET $1,050,000 $1,050,000 dom3
——————————————-
sold – 1 year ago
2779 VENABLES STREET $1,090,000 $1,012,500

sold 1.5 yrs ago – decent bung but small – tear it down anyway!
2759 VENABLES STREET $899,999 $980,000
with new house – sold 1yr later (this spring)
2759 VENABLES STREET $1,899,900 $2,125,000

sold – 2.5 years ago :nice bung – new reno
2570 VENABLES STREET $799,900 $800,000

3 yrs ago
2180 VENABLES STREET $789,000$730,000

#79 The Spectre on 10.26.16 at 8:34 pm

the finance minister’s October 3rd announcement

So crash in the national RE market in the radar plus the election of the Donald 5 days later.

It’s gonna be awesome!

#80 Ray Skunk on 10.26.16 at 8:38 pm

That means you’re a realtor, or you make this stuff up

The two are not mutually exclusive.

#81 45north on 10.26.16 at 8:40 pm

And if Will Dunning’s correct, people in Halifax, Winnipeg, Victoria and that flat part in the middle can expect more of the same.

Devil’s Advocate posted the link to the Dunning report: Publicly-available data does not allow us to
gauge the dimensions of the impact.

unlike the RBC database, I’m thinking RBC has run hundreds of sql queries and has a darn good idea of the dimensions of the impact.

On the battlefield, sellers are losing badly. In the first three weeks of October sales have collapsed year/year by 72% (almost 760 last year, just 150 now).

holy hannah!

Chaddywack: Any predictions on how long this downturn in Vancouver will last?

the way I read it this is a policy decision at the highest level. The decision is to cut the housing bubble off at the knees and redirect the capital elsewhere.

As far as I’m concerned this is the right decision. I don’t think that we can talk of general prosperity, we can hope for particular bright spots with the rest of us in survival mode.

RentYVR: If houses/condos are not selling than they will be turned into rental units rather than sit empty. So the overall rental supply will increase not decrease and rents could actually fall.

which is what happened in the US as its housing market collapsed. A chaotic situation – renters being evicted because the landlord didn’t pay the mortgage.

Goldie: Crawling further into the field, beneath more rows of barbed wire and over pocked mud, you take temporary cover by slithering into a large foxhole which had recently been grazed by an artillery strike. To your dismay, you come upon the badly mangled remains of Brad Lamb.

good writing!

#82 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 8:42 pm

#57 Bottoms_Up on 10.26.16 at 7:17 pm
I would hate to have been a “winner” of a bidding war, anywhere in Canada, over the past year. The 5% down crew is certainly under water.
…..

Why does the UCC tell me you sort of like that.

Normal kids chasing a dream. Be it dumb. Have a heart lefty. All the lefties I know are vial vengeful animals hell bent on vengeance for their indoctrination and training to victimolgy.

Pathetic your kind are… Switch to the dark side.

Love yourself first. Become an entrepreneur..

Then you can care for people. Climate Change is a hoax. When you figure that out its a step forward to prosperity.

Not saying you shouldn’t capitalize on the stupidity of man vs man, but I think your a true bieliver, if you don’t own a wind farm and get whats going on.

Your doomed.

#83 bdwy sktrn on 10.26.16 at 8:50 pm

#73 S.Bby on 10.26.16 at 8:16 pm
#71 bdwy sktrn

Anyways, six months ago these would have sold for $500,000 more. Let the decline continue

——————–
ummm, yeah, 6 months ago 3 br condos were 1.5m, thats pretty funny.

actually, exactly 6 months ago a townhouse, not a condo, on that block , 3br, newer build was….
1849 CHARLES STREET $985,000 $1,200,000

so no drop yet – keep wishing!!!

#84 westcdn on 10.26.16 at 8:50 pm

#72 Mar”k on 10.25.16 at 8:58 pm

I agree with this comment. Cdn interest rates for the responsible will remain low for a long time. I essentially only use some debt for investing – I have my place to live. So for me, low interest rates or slightly higher are a so what? If you want to play the forex game – good luck.

There are lots of reputable stories about voting fraud in the good, old USA. The only time I can think of when it could have mattered was the Florida outcome in the race between Gore and Bush in 2000.

I read history. It was not uncommon before women had the vote that the men would be bought with booze on both sides of the border.

It is too bad Trump doesn’t have an attention span or listening skills – I think he would have done better if he was taking Ritalin.

#85 Steve Saretsky on 10.26.16 at 8:51 pm

Whazzup Garth!

#86 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 8:57 pm

Damn get old sucks. Beckey the bar tender at the chairman’s lounge is perfect.

Jet black hair with the bangs cut straight across, eyes of passion.

I would never put her through the trauma of an old fart hitting on her, but I wanted too so badly.

Real men, not much around any more.

I emailed her pic to my kids.

Touch passing sucks huge.

#87 Price drops and fewer sales in TO on 10.26.16 at 8:57 pm

Looking bad in TO as speculators and realtors are looking to cash out. I know two agents trying to cash out . They are good honest realtors if you believe they exist. Anyhow they are saying the game is over and that prices will go down. They expecting 20-30% drop when all is said and done. I think it will be much higher.

#88 Damifino on 10.26.16 at 9:00 pm

#13 Gollum

Many blog posts ago, I read a comment which stated “Even if the market crashes 50%, Vancouver home prices will still be at 2012 levels. Anyone who bought back then will still be breaking even”.
———————————

Considering a 50% decrease erases a 100% gain, then based on that we must conclude that YVR house prices have doubled in price since 2010.

Is that really the case? Could be I guess… after all, we’re completely nuts here.

But does that also mean it cost nothing whatever to carry a house since 2010 over and above what equivalent rent would have been?

If not, then it’s hardly ‘breaking even’ is it?

#89 Price drops and fewer sales in TO on 10.26.16 at 9:04 pm

Btw payday loans usage has doubled since 2009 with the average users who make 80k a year. Homeowners maxed out HELOC, credit cards and forced to goto payday loans to pay the bills. These people were able to sell or get more credit before defaulting. Now that’s over and so is the lies from brokers and realtors. The tide is going out.

#90 Hotdogs from Heaven on 10.26.16 at 9:06 pm

#48 bigtowne on 10.26.16 at 7:04 pm

Tesla is burning through millions quarter after quarter and former GM CEO Mr. Lutz questions the possible future of this great no carbon footprint enterprise.
—————————————————–
Tesla’s quarterly numbers came out tonight. Increased revenue, positive cash flow and a first time quarterly profit.

Maybe you should pick up some shares, or better yet long dated calls, on Tesla instead of any more real estate?

#91 Actual YVR RE Chart Like Yours on 10.26.16 at 9:06 pm

Similar chart to yours Garth that shows actual YVR RE prices in 2016 dollars from 1977 to Present.

On the far right the author shows what a repeat of the 1980-1985 and 1995-2001 RE crashes would look like from the peak 1Q 2016 price.

The black line is the actual price drop of about 20% to present. Note the slope of the line is much steeper than the prior 2 crashes.

http://vancouvercondo.info/2016/09/collapse-scenario-in-chart-form.html

The red line is a linear regression trend line for data up to the year 2002?

It is not clear for what period of time data the red line represents; however, it is projected to the present day.

Bsant

Hey, just like the chart published here (first, I think). — Garth

#92 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 9:06 pm

Shit I’m drunk again. My last post should have been

Torch passing suck huge.. Or passing the Torch really sucks.

Or something like that.

Becky is hauntingly beautiful.. 1/2, my age.. Why do I still have these urges and I’m not even a politician.

Urges with a malfunctioning equipment, it was ment to be.

Only then can one find his or hers writer voice.

My book is assume..

#93 Andrew Woburn on 10.26.16 at 9:13 pm

Do Brit’s trust their institutions? Here’s an interesting chart about their level of trust in government, business and the media depending on household income;

above (A) 100,000 pounds or below (B) 15,000:

Government — (A) 54% (B) 26%
Business —— (A) 67% (B) 35%
Media ——— (A) 46% (B) 34%

Could explain a bit about Brexit

https://gm1.ggpht.com/aWFmSR-puWLTeHXQU4FnC9Q2mJ7UYD1sgdeErxytSDnVWdbVuXEC0jILTcqhcIxt3BeV_xxIpbZBU743ysejQuh4t28YxgZ5O3OEgxLKbxfOcW5Amr2uMuilWQnwj-VL-aHwn7xkEkTOJSPdwVlJhyrzDee6AqibLKZeWHuxp-i83P0wmXbwg2Q5-f5p928NTxtZcGk4ZBKihOgLoTeM7YqDogVb_gWABzpCTiOwttVd53rMyY_aiMu2O9e8mKLGuTXTtoej7cDnH-l6uMVsBORK1rE75ufXcOIaaGFRUR_-QwtkJv2Mpz094tbakUOacFkFdpZDrbfq6nHtUi6f5YiZ5zTIrjBs48q_zUavDi2V-Ai5-mqtwH9q-2HOGTeKBosVO8DdgqLRNcDaknoO2Dm-AzHDI4MPuKfV0FlktdrG7qH4MabFjJJy2CW4RIpUps4hzZ09NnWF4ZXaSr8NkPYAKPh1TRUJBtar4wZmdFZJtwmHq3GY1mr5gRhiJFAgx9kqhpGzVImrM-NrfNMdmn1IYVsoIfLYJSj3BjOwk2w2xsdzlLkxyEBQ2ti39SK0e838pRC9vLl8VS7Jy4VVQI8jrHYbmYu2cmJ8RNcxM05d-LRGJUhLK06UOLrFid12_peBbwP7hdgSkwpUhxISp_eiKpLDtOq10djjed1_Fvo7DFlEclPwEdkTidiuNKr53cDZUE0GRMfg=w944-h726-l75-ft

#94 Price drops and fewer sales in TO on 10.26.16 at 9:15 pm

Average payday loan was $500. Imagine that people making 80k not having $500. Best part is people from ALL wage brackets are using it. Imagine that a “homeowner ” in a million dollar house who makes $125-150k a year is using payday loans ? I don’t think anyone has anot idea how big a house of cards we have.

#95 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 9:22 pm

Only reason Becky is on my mind. She would not give up Trump vs Hillary. Brains and Bueaty.

Why jeopardize a huge tip..

I’m Smoking Man, regardless of your opinion I still tip good if you have an opinion.

Beckey got a buck from me. Others who don’t need an expreso and a few blue pills handed over 5 bucks with each trip.

Don’t know were I’m going with this post.

Perhaps to bed, wondering why I could not get Becky to tell me where she stands.

This chic is going to nab a stupid zillionaire. Good for her.

It’s not me. I’m not stupid.

#96 Andrew Woburn on 10.26.16 at 9:22 pm

There are Canadians who don’t believe house prices can go down. There are others who don’t believe automated trucking will happen or not any time soon.

But the first automated truck delivery just happened. The next thing will be platooning of automated trucks with a lead human driver. I would give it a year maybe.

“Uber’s self-driving truck delivered 50,000 cans of Budweiser”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/10/25/ubers-self-driving-truck-delivered-50000-cans-of-budweiser/?tid=hybrid_collaborative_1_na#comments

#97 Soviet Capitalist on 10.26.16 at 9:22 pm

Can someone tell me why so many businesses claim ‘we are giving back to the community’?
Does that mean that they stole something and now are giving it back?
How come government agencies never display that?

#98 bdwy sktrn on 10.26.16 at 9:25 pm

damfino :we must conclude that YVR house prices have doubled in price since 2010.

Is that really the case? Could be I guess… after all, we’re completely nuts here.

———————
those charles street places mentioned above were built/sold in 2013 – the prices today (after all this crashiness!) are exactly double what they first sold for.

for a used place vs a brand new one.

mark still says the 100+% gain is “flat/falling” – must be foggy out in sask or inside his head.

#99 Debtor on 10.26.16 at 9:26 pm

Just received a notice from BMO MasterCard that my rate on purchases effective Dec.1 goes from 10.90% to 13.90%. Looks like the banks are starting to go for the throat. One supposes they will soon be showing the same kindness to mortgage borrowers.

#100 Price drops and fewer sales in TO on 10.26.16 at 9:29 pm

39 bb on 10.26.16 at 6:45 pm
Only short term “flippers” will be affected here. They can always rent out their properties and take advantage of rising rents. Renters will subsidize landlords’ mortgages.

Read what you just wrote. Read it twice if you are having trouble. Rents will go down. Reread what you wrote. Yes Reread what you wrote or goto an economics class. If you think rents will go up with increased supply you are clueless. Rents going down in TO. Many empty units in the Annex and all over TO.

#101 It's not all doom & gloom...420 to the Rescue on 10.26.16 at 9:30 pm

Federal Health Minister Jane Philpott has said the Liberals will move forward with legalization of marijuana in the spring of 2017.

Big GDP jump next year…and a big jump in ailing Boomers overnight come Spring 2017. YVR RE owners should be given 420 for compassionate reasons.

Millennials/Moisters, start a SpeedWeed delivery service, you’ll make a lot of kush, sorry cash…fast.

TIP: write a SpeedWeed app for iPhone and Android to speed, the weed.

Huff Post, in their article about this, renamed a well known Cdn. Pharmacy chain to [that plans to dispense 420]:

Tokers Drug Mart.

The Huff Post article goes on to quote:

“We’re an industry that is extremely effective at managing controlled substances,” Galen G. Weston, president of Loblaw Co., told reporters in May.

Which means, SuperStore Pharmacy will dispense 420 as well.

Hope they have President’s Choice Hash Brownies in the Bakery Section…I wonder if they will throw any away that are past their fresh date?

If so, expect CBC Reporters to be dumpster diving, yet again, in droves at a SuperStore near you [and, if it is CBCs David Common, take a bite out of a few].

bsant

#102 Andrew Woburn on 10.26.16 at 9:32 pm

Those insufferable elitists at the Economist think Trump isn’t going to win. They think that polls still mean something and become more accurate as the election date draws close. Of course, they said Canada was in a housing bubble.

Obviously they have never heard of Herdonomics.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/10/daily-chart-14?fsrc=scn%2Ftw%2Fte%2Fbl%2Fed%2F&%3Ffsrc%3Dscn%2F=tw%2Fdc

#103 Tudval on 10.26.16 at 9:35 pm

What “laws of economics” should apply in a market heavily skewed by government intervention? Why not mention that if rents do rise, it will push some renters to buy? There are many who could afford it, even with the new rules. And rates are NOT rising. You still put trust in a crystal ball that hasn’t been working in ages? The drop in sales will hit government coffers first. Look for them bureaucrats to backtrack on their unwise actions once the unintended, unforeseen consequences hit their budgets and re-election prospects dim.

#104 The world of renting pain on 10.26.16 at 9:37 pm

God Garth, and blame people for wanting to won their own place….what is wrong with you///?

http://globalnews.ca/news/2958512/vancouver-craigslist-ad-asks-for-tenants-who-dont-cook-and-are-barely-home/

#105 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 9:43 pm

Last cigarette of the night with the last wine.

Looking at myself in the mirror.

I lie he’s a handsome basterd. Lieing to one self is so over rated.

I plug the ear buds in.

This is what I hear.

https://youtu.be/dEL5F_ulqbs

Good night dogs I love you all.

#106 RE: #91 Actual YVR RE...Thanks for Chart Garth on 10.26.16 at 9:44 pm

I’d been looking for that chart of your for some time now. Could not find it until today in your Blog – thank you.

Yes, yours is first for sure.

Having been thru a couple of RE crashes, your chart sure makes a lot of sense to me.

Again, thanks for finding it Garth.

Why I found the actual YVR RE version of it and posted it here for corroboration.

Take care G.

bsant

#107 The world of renting pain on 10.26.16 at 9:51 pm

#74 toronto1 on 10.26.16 at 8:18 pm
The velocity and scope of the decline will surprise most people, I believe even Garth.

I have said here before, the last time we had a defacto interest rate of 4.6% and a tightening of credit was Q2 2008 to Q2 2009. Watch for similar effects, average home in GTA was 400K at that time.

If you thought that people where irrational when prices where climbing, wait until the sentiment changes. fear of losing gains is not the same as a real fear of going bankrupt

To many people over stretched themselves buying their first home or investment property.

Genworth said that under the new mortgage regulations, 15-30% would not qualify– thats huge!
add into it the surveys with how little Canadians have saved and how many are a paycheque or two away from ruin and you should get a pretty gloomy picture that is quite accurate.

Ever heard the word” MIGRATION ” my friend, didn’t think so.

#108 Joe2.0 on 10.26.16 at 9:53 pm

Lotsa yanks looking round up here.
Big awareness of the U.S. Political mess.
Plus a coming 60c dollar.
That’s a big discount.
Screwed either way people.

#109 FC16 on 10.26.16 at 9:57 pm

#18 Same Same…

As others have pointed out, that’s not how this works.

Here’s a couple of links for you:

1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Notice that ski slope from 2006 – 2009 that’s “fewer people buying”

2. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRVRUSQ156N

Odd, shouldn’t ” recent sellers [going] to the sideline with the existing renting pool and sideliners, eating up all the existing housing stock” cause vacancies to go down during the same period?

Maybe, something a little close to home might help.

1. http://tinyurl.com/gtda7e2

Download the publication and visit page 10. Notice the January-August YoY comparisons? Yep, “fewer people buying”.

2. http://tinyurl.com/zo4hsxx

From the horse’s mouth….

Renters sure have “pooched themselves”

#110 betamax on 10.26.16 at 10:00 pm

#61 Brian: “Shocking that 150 homes sold. Whos stupid enough to buy right now?”

Home buyers are generally amateur investors. At the beginning of the US housing market crash, prices still rose as sales volume tanked. The vast majority of those home buyers didn’t even know the market changed, so of course they kept buying at higher prices.

Which is precisely why realtors don’t want current market info to be readily available. They don’t want sheeple to know the market has changed.

Take a look at that bubble line graph again: in every bubble and subsequent crash, there are buyers all the way down. Hence the terms “catch a falling knife”, “dead cat bounce”, etc.

A friend of mine recently bought a presale condo in YVR “as an investment”. I was shocked; he’s a smart guy, but he wasn’t paying attention and didn’t know the market changed. He only told me about it afterward, so I couldn’t warn him. Now he’s probably hooped.

#111 Tony on 10.26.16 at 10:14 pm

Re: #7 Frank on 10.26.16 at 5:47 pm

You’ll learn, just give it time. The Millennials today are denser than lead!! They’ll figure it out but what in the past took a few hours today could take as much as 6 months.

#112 Bobby on 10.26.16 at 10:19 pm

The diagram reminds me of the Case/Schiller index used to predict housing prices in the US just before their crash.
The next debate will be how low will prices go until they revert back to the mean. Eventually the conversation will shift from how much ones house is worth to how little one paid for a house.
Don’t think it can happen, just watch!

#113 not 1st on 10.26.16 at 10:22 pm

Garth, it nice to be defensive, but somethings are not defensible. A B&D isnt going to save your wealth if things go off the rails.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-imfs-sdr-only-way-to-combat-next-financial-crisis-2016-10

And the power that be will find out they cant keep the plates spinning for ever, a recession will rear its ugly head and I think they have decided to give it to Hillary as a present all wrapped up in a bow. 2017/2018

Investors can easily prosper in a recession. It’s workers who suffer. — Garth

#114 Tony on 10.26.16 at 10:23 pm

Re: #98 Price drops and fewer sales in TO on 10.26.16 at 9:29 pm

Rents fall when property prices fall. The rule is universal worldwide and has always held true as far back in time as the dawning of time.

#115 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 10:23 pm

When you find your voice

Nothing else matters.

https://youtu.be/sMqNFAU0tOw

#116 Tony on 10.26.16 at 10:30 pm

Re: #90 Hotdogs from Heaven on 10.26.16 at 9:06 pm

Auto stocks are one of the last things on Earth to own presently. Conversely if one was looking for short sales the automobile stocks would head the list.

#117 Victoria over asking on 10.26.16 at 10:30 pm

Lost out on a 9 offer, 1.2 million listing in Victoria this past week. It went for 1.4. Apparently two dudes were sitting in their car at offer presentation time waiting to bid war.

#118 D on 10.26.16 at 10:31 pm

wait a minute. We trust the ‘stats’ now???

‘It’s different here’ is dismissed yet markets are local??
Lots of typing on both side of the keyboard here if you know what I mean

Toronto market still smoking hot from what I see.

#119 WalMark of sadkatoon on 10.26.16 at 10:32 pm

#59 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 7:19 pm

SM if trump pulls off this incredible upset you will become immortal!!

#120 not 1st on 10.26.16 at 10:36 pm

Before people mourn for the construction jobs phone one of these scammers up sometime and ask for a quote to do some work at your house. They have been gouging on top of the housing boom for a decade.

The banks are not blameless either. For 15 yrs they have just had to write loans dump them on to CHMC and collect the interest differential. They could have been supporting business lending and real economic expansion but chose the riskless path. Now we have no housing market and no growing businesses except for carbon taxes.

#121 TurnerNation on 10.26.16 at 10:39 pm

Combat helmut…are the Germans coming?

#122 LifeXpert on 10.26.16 at 10:44 pm

Check out this poll peeps

Trump 10 – 1 over Clinton

80,000 votes

https://www.facebook.com/chad.david.357/posts/10154145264788510?pnref=story

#123 bdwy sktrn on 10.26.16 at 10:48 pm

Vancouver Mayor introduces new ‘green’ tax plan.
26/10/2016

At city hall today Vancouver Mayor Gregor has announced a novel and controversial new plan for city revenue collection. Possibly as a nod to Vancouver property owners hit by weaker prices due to new taxes introduced recently, property taxes in the city can be paid in either cash or marijuana starting in 2017.

All ‘proceeds’ raised by the city through this program will be resold to Shoppers Drug Mart and other local dispensaries. Using a wholesale base of $2,000/lb the average east side home owner’s taxes would amount to approximately 2.2 lbs (or 1 kg), where a typical Kerrisdale homeowner would have to cough up over 3kg.

Councilor Jeff ‘Haze’ Meggs commented on the quality requirements, “Any decent indoor product that burns clean and is under 15% moisture will qualify” Both sativa and indica strains are acceptable. Robertson added, “The specified quantities can easily be produced within a single bedroom or larger closet space within the home”. It is hoped this will reduce the number of homes currently under short term rental on Airbnb as owners will not have to come up with 4-10k yearly for taxes.

“We are very proud of our progressive and flexible tax collection, It’s a first and will act as a model for other forward thinking cities” said Robertson.

#124 Steve is a nice dude on 10.26.16 at 11:03 pm

I met Steve couple of times and I think if he continues to be honest a lot of realtors will hate him in yvr. He was saying at the beginning of September that the market is dead and worse than 2008. Some realtors won’t suffer in downturn, but New Coast Realty and Nustream will disappear!
See you on the dark side (2017) – when the sale really starts…

#125 Mark on 10.26.16 at 11:05 pm

Suncor numbers out tonight. They absolutely demolished analysts’ estimates. Those who think the Canadian TSX stock market is in some sort of bubble really are out to lunch here. Similar deal with Canadian National Railway yesterday. And Barrick. With falling labour costs, only minor deflation in prices, and credit that is rapidly becoming less expensive for business, the TSX will easily power itself considerably higher over the coming years both on the strength of earnings growth, as well as speculative money flowing out of housing speculation after years of stagnation, and towards currently out of favour assets.

#126 traderJim on 10.26.16 at 11:34 pm

I’ve been trying to figure out all the hype for self driving cars and trucks. What’s the big deal? I still have to sit in my car while it drives…what exactly is the big gain? Everyone slows down and fewer accidents? That would be nice if it happens I suppose.

But I am skeptical. This is like Microsoft’s silly attempt to create an AI teenager chatbot, and the geniuses let it loose on the net. Within 24 hours witty trolls had the bot spouting racist nonsense and hating the world. All the brains at multi billion dollar microsoft could not see that coming. Any 16 year old could have warned them. Do microsoft engineers even use the web one wonders?

There will be a time when some cars are self driving and some are not. People will learn that they can get ahead of self driving cars (or better yet, those big trucks hogging the left lane when they should not) and slow them down or otherwise outmaneuver them. Lots of games of chicken, as a self driving vehicle is always going to back off. Why wait your turn at a light if the other vehicle is self driving?

Hackers will misdirect self driving trucks and steal the goods.

Just as the recent DDOS internet attacks showed, these vehicles will be subject to all manner of problems if hackers choose to.

I’m all for progress and technology, I love the advances we are making, but this self driving thing is all hype, no substance, imo. Much more important stuff going on.

Should be good fun to watch teenagers make a mockery of all the ‘brightest’ engineers in the world though.

#127 protea on 10.26.16 at 11:36 pm

#36 Mark-What are you talking about? Mark what have you been smoking !! I guess the next sentence out of your gob will be that Justin Trudeau is a genius and the Canadian economy will be just humming like crazy after Justin has multiple years of deficit spending year after year. God help our grandchildren.

#128 Strathcona on 10.26.16 at 11:41 pm

Here in Grande Prairie, AB its bad. I note an uptick this month in oilfield traffic, but that could be temporary.

Houses are selling so slowly here now. There is so much on the market here that local Realtors have run out of lockboxes in order to show newly listed homes. The lockbox deficit was such a problem, that Realtors would need to text each other to find spare boxes. So much supply, so little demand.

Work has largely dried up, rents have fallen, as that is the only option for empty homes now, and there’s plenty of them. Not quite Las Vegas RE yet, Fort St. John and Fort Nelson, BC are slower still. Oh, and RE asking prices are still high. People are greedy and credit is still easy.

#129 WUL (Private 1st Class) on 10.26.16 at 11:41 pm

I fully appreciate that the Fort McMisery real estate market is without significance as a front in the War but it did punch above its weight between 2000 and American Thanksgiving in 2014 when OPEC declined to cut production. Heavy casualties. Crimson numbers.

Field Marshall Turner, please send reinforcements and ammo to the Taiga. We may be FUBAR.

http://www.fmreb.com/sites/5098200ae7e1b41bc50042de/content_entry50bf9565e7e1b41bc501133d/58012d965918ad21486d5604/files/September_2016.pdf?1476472214

#130 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.26.16 at 11:47 pm

I guess Love it or List It Vancouver will soon be off the air.

#131 Capt. Serious on 10.26.16 at 11:47 pm

At times like these I’m pretty happy to be working for a multinational company. Our office actually becomes lower cost when the dollar tanks.

#132 And Yet on 10.27.16 at 12:03 am

And Yet, house price will be higher next year as they always are

#133 Karma on 10.27.16 at 12:18 am

“I didn’t unfriend you over politics”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/i-didnt-unfriend-you-over-politics_us_580fa553e4b06e45c5c6ff43?

#134 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Field HQ on 10.27.16 at 12:26 am

There are two universes this election cycle – professional polling agencies, contracted to support the Globalist Borg narrative and their marionette, and the people on the ground.

Early voting in Flora is showing unprecedented turn-out for Trump.

I mean honestly, who the hell would be enthusiastic about Hillary? Michael Moore just called Trump a Molotov cocktail being thrown by the victims of globalism, and practically endorsed The Donald. See for yourselves:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKeYbEOSqYc

#135 Bottoms_Up on 10.27.16 at 12:33 am

#120 LifeXpert on 10.26.16 at 10:44 pm
—————————
Check out the Oct 2015 poll here on GF. 44% conservative, 36% liberal.

The randomness of the sample population means everything.

#136 Rovin by the moon on 10.27.16 at 12:35 am

#103 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 9:43 pm

Last cigarette of the night with the last wine.
Looking at myself in the mirror.
I lie he’s a handsome basterd. Lieing to one self is so over rated.
I plug the ear buds in.
This is what I hear.

https://youtu.be/dEL5F_ulqbs
Good night dogs I love you all.
——
If your life lasted only one day, you’d still be drunk by noon.

You missed this one….. drink up!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNz-EiO3BRY

Listen to me, Butterfly, there’s only so much wine
You can drink in one life
But it will never be enough
To save you from the bottom of your glass

#137 Bottoms_Up on 10.27.16 at 12:41 am

#82 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 8:42 pm
——————————–
I have yet to see you, or anyone, post real, credible, evidence that global warming is a hoax.

In fact, the evidence is now overwhelming, and it has now been proven, cause and effect, that releasing carbon into the atmosphere over the past 200 years is cooking us.

#138 Post on 10.27.16 at 12:43 am

CMHC sees the Canadian market as “problematic”. However, today Robyn Adamache, Senior Market Analyst for the CMHC had this to say about Vancouver housing:

“The new supply of new homes, the unsold inventory of new homes is near record low levels as I’m sure you know the resale supply for many months now has … been near record lows.”

So what can Vancouverites expect in 2017 and beyond?

Adamache says the CMHC’s modelling doesn’t see any big changes in the fundamentals underlying Metro Vancouver’s market, with employment and population growth expected to hold steady in the coming years.

She says that means more leveling off in the market, with both sales and housing starts expected to move closer to the long term average.

But those hoping for a dip in housing prices are probably out of luck.

“Vancouver has notoriously sticky housing prices.”

She says they should cool off a little bit though, meaning we’re unlikely to see the jaw dropping double digit gains that made headlines last year, instead tracking closer to the rate of inflation.

http://www.inews880.com/syn/112/236181/the-simi-sara-show-canadas-housing-market-now-at-red-risk-level

#139 Bod dog on 10.27.16 at 12:46 am

Put another way..

Canadians are about the acquire a keen understanding of the term “Minsky Moment”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

#140 Karma on 10.27.16 at 12:50 am

#121 traderJim on 10.26.16 at 12:05 am
“#79 Karma

Another example of the liberal elitist bully mindset. Compares students’ opinions to ‘skidmarks’.”
——————————————–
I am the bully? What about these protestors at the UofT complaining that someone else has the balls to say that he thinks differently from them? What about the racist people at UC Berkeley blocking WHITE STUDENTS’ way through one of the main gates. Did you not watch the video in the heatst.com link? I suggest you do. Then let’s talk about bullies.

Also, not all students are dipsticks, only the overly loud ones who make little to no practical sense in their demands. Thankfully, that’s a small minority who just act entitled in a world where people have their own baggage and shit to complain about.
———————————————-

“Trump supporters are assembly line workers that have lost their jobs, people that are struggling, and the ‘liberals’ make fun of them and denigrate them for being ‘uneducated’.”

I’m not making fun of them for being unemployed and struggling. I am concerned about their situation, for sure. But I find it unfathomable that they ACTUALLY believe his rhetoric about bringing back jobs. He lies so much more than Hilary that there’s literally zero reason/rationale to believe anything he says. Further, it’s dumbfounding to anyone with any clue on how trade and specialization of labour works. Yes, some people lose to trade, but there is a massive net benefit for the economy from trade specialization. Personally, I despise Walmart, and other multi-nationals, for outsourcing jobs to specifically China, not because people in the rust belt states lost their job, but because (as I suspected in the early 2000s) that it is what will empower the US/Western countries’ greatest future enemy: Communist China. We’ve given them all the skills, capital and intellectual property to dominate us in the future. They have the manpower, but they needed what we gave them. And now we’ve lost our comparative advantage in nearly everything, which has hurt those lower-skilled employees in the mean time.

Read this: http://www.economicshelp.org/microessays/as/specialisation-division-labour/
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/comparative-advantage/
——————————————-

“Personally, between a high school eductaed person who just wants to earn an honest living doing manual labour and an elitist who never earned an honest dollar in their life, I know whose side I am on.”

That’s fine. It’s not some contest between the two. It’s a reality check. The reality is anything can be made in Canada, it just depends on the a) wage, b) capital input into machinery, and c) cost to transport goods to market. Canada can make anything, it just won’t be good paying jobs.
I once got advice from a customer at the local grocery store (where I was a stock boy) who used to be a trader on the floor of the Vancouver Stock Exchange back in the 80s and 90s. He said “Any man can make a living with his hands. But it takes a brain to make money”. I bring that up because it made me think of two things: 1) not everyone can make a lot of money, just due to normal probability of the distribution of income, 2) those with brains need those with good hands to make a good living in order to make “money” off of them.
———————————————-
“Hillary and Bill entered the White House with nothing, as she loves to remind people.

Now they are worth $250 million, that we know of.”

What’s your source? This source says $111M (Bill doing speeches for $250k a pop for 16 years helped him reach $80M).
http://moneynation.com/hillary-clinton-net-worth/

And it’s a fallacy that they entered the White House with nothing. They had family money, enough so they can go to great private universities.

#141 chelsea on 10.27.16 at 12:50 am

Okay, okay …. so there is a dump in the Vancouver area where RE is concerned … I don’t see any motivation of price reduction in any area of B.C. nor Vancouver Island or the Gulf Islands. So, what gives? The home prices are still through the roof, and how many crappy shacks can RE advertise. Is this the end of ever purchasing a decent home? So, I suppose we will wait until Spring .. will the Seller develop some #??!! and finally drop their asking price! Only hope!

#142 Karma on 10.27.16 at 12:59 am

#8 Entrepreneur on 10.26.16 at 5:49 pm
“T2 is definitely is being scrutinized but as he should be; he made the promises to get elected. Or were the promises made with false pretense for another purpose in mind.

U.S. has a problem (so does Canada) and the news media does not display the issues or do not understand the real problem(s): the leaders make international trade deals behind closed doors and leave citizens out.

A leader protecting his citizens from CETA, wow, we should have more of him. He should be given a metal! A leader listening to the people and concerned about them.

Listen to the people of that nation; govern by the people of that nation.”

Why are you against CETA? Are you concerned high-wage countries like France and Italy will outcompete you on price? Give me a break. Europe and Canada don’t even compete significantly in that many products. Canada would be much better off with lower priced European goods (how about cheaper cheese and wine!?). I understand why Europe wouldn’t want to do a deal with Canada, they don’t gain much. But to be a Canadian and not want CETA? That’s just partisanship.

#143 Mark on 10.27.16 at 1:09 am

“#36 Mark-What are you talking about? Mark what have you been smoking !! I guess the next sentence out of your gob will be that Justin Trudeau is a genius and the Canadian economy will be just humming like crazy after Justin has multiple years of deficit spending year after year. God help our grandchildren.”

I think I made it fairly clear, with a reference to the Bank of Canada website showing GoC debt outstanding, that the record of Trudeau isn’t any worse than the record of Harper.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/

Harper had 10 years running average deficits of $26B/year (more than Trudeau has run this year, not even inflation adjusted). The economy hardly did well outside of the RE and O&G sectors because there was an overwhelming emphasis on supporting the housing sector through the CMHC, rather than a more broad dispersion of credit.

With RE prices now declining and the sector in physical overcapacity, pumping RE for another 4 years simply isn’t an option for the Trudeau Liberal government. So they’ve been acting accordingly to tighten things up. I am extremely proud of Trudeau and Morneau for having the courage to crack down on excessive government support of the housing sector to the detriment of other Canadian industry.

#144 Karma on 10.27.16 at 1:11 am

#16 BS on 10.26.16 at 5:58 pm
“7 Frank on 10.26.16 at 5:47 pm

“I just checked, of all the sales in my hood 65% are over list still in the last 3 weeks.” That means you’re a realtor, or you make this stuff up. Which is it? — Garth

Probably both. No way are 65% of sales over asking in any YVR hood and yes only a realtor has access to this information.”

Not any more! Check zolo.ca for your neighbourhood’s trend info.

#145 Karma on 10.27.16 at 1:17 am

#31 comment re: zolo.ca on 10.26.16 at 6:28 pm
“On the subject of opacity – I recently noted that the link to the “Trends” section on zolo.ca for Canmore, AB, abruptly disappeared about 10 days ago. The URL still works – see: https://www.zolo.ca/canmore-real-estate/trends – but it has not been updated since Oct 15. If zolo.ca is supposed to be all about improving transparency, I wonder why the transparency has just disappeared for Canmore?

Interesting fact from the link above: only two condos (no townhouses or detached houses) sold in the 28-day period ending on Oct 15. Average price: $295K; Yearly change: -57.6%. Did someone pull some strings to get zolo to hide this data?

Has anyone else noticed disappearance of zolo “Trends” for other locations?”

I can’t comment on it disappearing, but I saw that it’s not there for every market of Greater Van, such a Maple Ridge. Perhaps it’s a sample size issue? You can contact them to ask those types of questions.

#146 Smartalox on 10.27.16 at 1:18 am

@Brian, @Betamax:

Who would buy under these conditions?

How about people who’ve sold their homes, and have to port their mortgage to another property or else be liable for a hefty mortgage prepayment charge.

If people are forced to sell because they can’t make ends meet, they’ll do anything to avoid a five-figure penalty to dischagre a mortgage.

And to those who think that rents will be rising, it’s not happening:
– there are more units on offer, and at lower prices than there have been in years.
– people who sell, will be well motivated to buy again (see above)
– a lot of people with inherited houses will hold on and rent them out as prices fall, instead of selling into a falling market. Greed being what it it.

#147 FIVRE on 10.27.16 at 1:22 am

I’m just not buying that rents will go up, unless I’m missing something?
If people aren’t buying won’t they just remain in the place they’re in? or if they need a bigger space and have to rent another place then won’t they be freeing up the place they are leaving?
It’s not like these rules are going to magically shrink the overall amount of housing that we have in Vancouver, and we know that housing starts are totally gonzo right now, we have so many places in some stage of construction.
Also, if the economy staggers, won’t that impact the amount of Albertans coming here (supposedly) to jump into a job in the housing industry?
Maybe Oil goes up as housing sector goes down, and we lose some new recruits to Alberta, impacting our population growth.

#148 Broadway Bust on 10.27.16 at 1:23 am

So Broadway Skytrain MR or MS… you must have recently bought…defending your hood isn’t going to stop the loss. The fact is that houses in the area are down 15-20% from just a few months ago FACT 2590 Adanac is a prime example $1.425 sold … easily would have fetched 1.7

On another note I saw Cameron Muir and Bob Rennie walking into church the other day… I guess to pray the crash goes away

#149 Karma on 10.27.16 at 1:41 am

#87 Price drops and fewer sales in TO on 10.26.16 at 8:57 pm
“Looking bad in TO as speculators and realtors are looking to cash out. I know two agents trying to cash out . They are good honest realtors if you believe they exist. Anyhow they are saying the game is over and that prices will go down. They expecting 20-30% drop when all is said and done. I think it will be much higher.”

Such double-standards between realtors and investment advisors regulation. The latter would get punished severely for what your “good honest realtors” are doing.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/frontrunning.asp
Eric Reguly from 1987:
http://investorvoice.ca/PI/0G.htm

#150 Entrepreneur on 10.27.16 at 1:44 am

To all you climate change deniers out there: have you every been outside long enough to know or are you cozy by your natural gas fireplace.

Have you ever stood outside your house in the summer and felt a icy, wintery chill; have you noticed the winter can be hot, dry then so cold; have you noticed in the bush the dryness of the leaves in the summer; have you experienced the winters are getting so cold that the snow that falls it forms ice blocks quickly; have you noticed the winds are getting stronger; have you noticed anything.

Deny, carbon tax, play the games but earth rules. Another point, what is the point of finding another planet when we cannot look after our own.

Some of us have been taught to respect the earth and not play god, but by the looks of the shape earth is in, not very many. Oh, I forgot, there is a penalty for mishaps; earth have its own penalties.

#151 Karma on 10.27.16 at 1:50 am

#90 Hotdogs from Heaven on 10.26.16 at 9:06 pm
“#48 bigtowne on 10.26.16 at 7:04 pm

Tesla is burning through millions quarter after quarter and former GM CEO Mr. Lutz questions the possible future of this great no carbon footprint enterprise.
—————————————————–
Tesla’s quarterly numbers came out tonight. Increased revenue, positive cash flow and a first time quarterly profit.

Maybe you should pick up some shares, or better yet long dated calls, on Tesla instead of any more real estate?”

——————————–

http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/tesla-motors-inc-reports-quarterly-profit-revenue-nearly-doubles-to-us2-3-billion

“Buoyed by US$139M sale of Carbon Credits”. Net Income: $21.4M. Question is the Carbon Credits a recurring business?

http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-16-747973&CIK=1318605

#152 Karma on 10.27.16 at 2:06 am

#112 Tony on 10.26.16 at 10:23 pm
“Re: #98 Price drops and fewer sales in TO on 10.26.16 at 9:29 pm

Rents fall when property prices fall. The rule is universal worldwide and has always held true as far back in time as the dawning of time.”

Yup! It’s called the Principle of Substitution. Works on buyers and renters alike.

http://www.realestatewiki.com/wiki_content/Principle_Of_Substitution_cat40834034_cid20431647.htm

#153 Karma on 10.27.16 at 2:16 am

#120 LifeXpert on 10.26.16 at 10:44 pm
“Check out this poll peeps

Trump 10 – 1 over Clinton

80,000 votes”

So your poll is unbiased, why?

Husband’s from Kansas, wife’s a high school drop out. They seem to live in North Carolina. Their network is likely predominantly white people in the South. Why would you expect anything different that Republican dominance?

FYI, North Carolina’s recent poll. Slim lead for Clinton in a state Romney won:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html

#154 Karma on 10.27.16 at 2:19 am

#128 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.26.16 at 11:47 pm
“I guess Love it or List It Vancouver will soon be off the air.”

Just like the GFC killed off ‘Pimp My Ride’…

#155 Wow on 10.27.16 at 2:33 am

The person whom you’ve been so fond of quoting lately is Steve Saretsky. Let’s look a little closer at this prognosticator, market observer and economist extraordinaire.

Mid twenties. He’s been selling real estate for 2 years. Before that he painted houses and worked at a golf course. He attended a high school (not sure if he graduated). He took a couple of business courses at Selkirk college – that would be that little community college in the booming metropolis of Castelgar, BC. And he took one real estate course.

Who you trying to kid?

#156 When Will They Raise Rates? on 10.27.16 at 2:42 am

Excellent post today Garth!

#157 Wow on 10.27.16 at 2:49 am

Oh yea, Steve Saretsky has worked for Sutton for 9 months. He no longer works for Re-max. That’s his third real estate firm in his illustriously long career of 2 years.

He has zero listings. As has been using his web page vancitycondoguide.com as a way to market himself. It hasn’t been at all successful yet.

#158 When Will They Raise Rates? on 10.27.16 at 2:59 am

#23 james on 10.26.16 at 6:12 pm

#2

You don’t understand asset bubbles.

All that is required is for the public to realize that prices will not continue to go up.

They don’t have to realize that prices will go down.

It is the expectation of future gains that provides the incentive to invest in markets that are at historic peaks. Take that away, and things change. I suggest reading about Tulip Mania or the South Seas bubble.
———————-

Yup.

#159 Jim on 10.27.16 at 3:01 am

Negative Interest Rates?

‘Money is like sausage, if you saw how it was made you wouldn’t want any’.

#160 Jim2 on 10.27.16 at 3:01 am

Negative Interest Rates?

‘Money is like sausage, if you saw how it was made you wouldn’t want any’.

#161 jane24 on 10.27.16 at 3:50 am

One of the reasons for sticky RE prices is often that the house is mortgaged to the top old value with a LOC in play as well. To lower the price the owner would need to take a cheque to the close and there is no money to do that. Such houses get foreclosed and the bank/CHMC take the hit. This process takes time before the house goes onto the MLS at a current price. Last time the bubble popped about 12 to 18 months.

My parents had to get out of Quebec a generation ago when the FLQ were active. They lived in an anglo town just outside Montreal. So many anglophones wanted out at that time that Royal Lepage started a waiting list to be able to list your house so the local market was not totally flooded. The had to wait 12 months before they could put the house on the market!! That is how unliquid RE can be.

#162 Looney Baloney on 10.27.16 at 4:27 am

#10 Chaddywack
Any minute now. BTFD!

#163 nubbers on 10.27.16 at 5:09 am

About 2-3 years ago, I cautioned a relative in Vancouver about buying a house there. Earlier this year at a get together, he mentioned to me how much his house had gained.

From what we have heard recently from Ross Kay, I reckon he is already back to where he started. I somehow doubt that the slide is going to stop any time soon, so he will now be heading into negative territory. Oh, well, I tried.

#164 Andrew t on 10.27.16 at 5:39 am

#120 LifeXPert:

An opt-in poll on Facebook?
A waste of time if there ever was one.

Step back from the circle jerk and embrace objectivity, my friend.

#165 AGREE #124 traderJim on 10.27.16 at 5:49 am

Internet of Things will have to be reigned in with Firewall and Virus Protection software as are personal computing devices.

Should be interesting watching people “flash” their Wi-Fi/Bluetooth stove and refrigerator with updates…and attach a screen to them to see what they are up to.

People will spend more time doing this than actually using their appliances.

As I said in a previous post, watch your Wi-Fi Baby Monitors, wristwatches and lava lamps closely on Nov. 8.

The DDoS attack fun has just begun…

bsant

#166 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.27.16 at 6:11 am

In addition to the new RE rules.
I would like to see The BC gov implement changes to the way RE is sold.
Since they now have control this is the perfect time to make much needed changes.
1. Make all information relating to RE public and in real time.
2. Make realtors list at real prices and force owners to accept full price offers.
3. All offers should be time stamped and be open to public scrutiny. What is there to hide?

No Bidding wars should be allowed.
Now the Realtors will have to work for a living. Up to now they have invented a culture of under-pricing just to scam a multitude of buyers flowing through looking for a bargain of which there NEVER is.
This is a waste of good peoples time and resources and is a distortion of the market.

#167 Toronto1 on 10.27.16 at 6:26 am

#105 the workd of renting pain

Migration is going to stop the RE? Please expand on this theory. As it did not in Ireland, Spain, USA etc.. but its different in Canada.

It has a near zero effect as its herd mentality and greed that drive prices up with access to cheap credit. Access to credit is now dimished via the new regs. Add up the average mrdian income in a city, whatever amount of credit that qualifies for is were the market is headed.

The RE agents crack me up. In the GTA we are headed for 2010-11-12 prices soon. Guess something must have changed from 2012-2016 because apparently its a new paradigm.

Ever heard of over compacity?

#168 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.27.16 at 6:36 am

#124 traderJim on 10.26.16 at 11:34 pm
I’ve been trying to figure out all the hype for self driving cars and trucks. What’s the big deal?
—————————————————————
Lots of BIG DEAL!
1. Less trucks on the road. They will position freight in lots near the delivery points overnight when there is no traffic. Then deliveries will occur in the morning after a short drive.
2. Way less Traffic Jams. Cars will be able to drive in groups safely only a few feet apart.
3. Eventual elimination of Traffic lights. Vehicles will co-ordinate themselves to just miss each other.(You may not want to watch though)
4.You can stare at your smart phone while going to work!
5. My All Time FAVORITE reason for Smart cars. No need for designated drivers. Now we can all go out and have a good time! DUI fears have put a chill on social life. We need to get back to debauchery!
6. Insurance will be close to Zero.
7. Way less accidents. No idiots forgetting to signal and cutting you off. No more Road Rage!
8. No strange cab drivers forcing you to listen to their stories and music when you want to be silent.

I am really looking forward to the future!

#169 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.16 at 6:55 am

The Vancouver situation is actually slightly worse than everyone here thinks. This news will come out in the next few months (in the form of very upset people basically crying that their life savings are gone). What has been happening is folks have been “buying up” Vancouver houses as long term investments. In the usual North American capitalist way, these people have then been mortgaging the increase in value of the houses and using the funds to purchase more houses.

There are people out there right now, who if the median price of a Vancouver house goes down say 17%, will lose a number of millions of dollars in net worth (because they own a lot of houses, all strung together in strings of mortgages like a daisy chain).

That is apparently why there are all those empty houses.

At any rate this will come out in a few months. Right now these folks are quiet still but very frightened. Emotions have a weird effect on people. You will start to see things blow up really spectacularly by December, if Vancouver prices don’t start to go up again…..

#170 DT on 10.27.16 at 7:41 am

#53 freedom first

What do you think the total job losses are in Alberta? I’ve heard 80,000 in MSM….true???

My friend who married and raising family the past 10 years in Alberta is Moving back to Toronto because of employment issues.

I’ve also heard (propaganda?) that most people out there working were from other provinces and renting so since the employment crisis the houses prices have remained sticky and unaffected. Personally I think people do not want sell until it’s absolutely necessary and they’re desperate.

#171 Mr. Frugal on 10.27.16 at 8:07 am

Obama’s corrupt Department of Justice is basically running a shake-down operation to steal money from the large financial institutions and channel it into left wing groups in order get the Democrats elected. This is one step away from the outright seizure of private property. It boggles the mind how any investor could support the Democrats.

http://www.breitbart.com/radio/2016/10/26/schweizer-obamas-doj-transferring-money-left-wing-groups-influence-election/

#172 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.27.16 at 8:21 am

@#152, 154 Wow

Let me guess, you’re a realtor.
A tad miffed that Steve-o is talking about Real Estate in a (gasp) negative light?
Miffed that one of the “brothers” in the “cartel” is speaking out?
Understandable when the industry is based on hype
(Please see Devil’s Advocate for training in how to put a positive “spin” on a slowing market. “Dont worry about your hard earned money investment losing value….sh*t happens)
Either way you’ll get your commision.
Although.
Now you’ll actually have to work for it.

:)

#173 Contacted Zolo Karma, to no avail on 10.27.16 at 8:35 am

Contacted Zolo.ca many times in the past couple of months, they do respond saying they are looking into it but that is all I every got from them.

For example, on numerous occasions found them changing Avg. Prices from 6, 9 and 12 months ago to increase current Avg. Selling Price, not once, but many times. Response per the above. Took screen shots just to be sure it was not my eyes.

There latest trick is to post “Reduced” property listing in the latter pages of a search. For example, search for Burnaby listings and in latter of 43 some odd listing pages, you will find those properties.

To get around them, view the Reduced properties, take note of the reduction, calculate a % list price drop, then search to find other similarly “New Listing” properties. You will find almost all of the new listings are priced the same as the Reduced properties, or less.

My estimate of price drops, in the past 1.5 months ALONE is from 10% to 25%.

Why I could not believe some posts today from people saying how hot their YVR RE hood is…hard to believe. And Garth today posts only 11% of properties selling over list price.

My observation to a tee.

I have been doing this for dozens and dozens of YVR properties over the past few months. I hate to say this, but what people say negatively about Realtors is not far from the truth.

bsant

#174 isuckless on 10.27.16 at 8:43 am

CETA passed (did I predict that?).
All is good for the multinationals, I suppose all is also good for investors (for some time at least).

#175 maxx on 10.27.16 at 8:43 am

Bless you, Garth, for all you do for people.
You’re a great man.

#176 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 10.27.16 at 8:48 am

I understand that YVR is correcting to fall more in line with the historical trend. There is no denying the unprecedented, irrational increases in that market of late whatever the reason. What caused them and what is quelling them is a matter of debate and aside the point; the market is falling back in line with historical trends.

The thing of it is; the historical trend has, is and most likely will continue to follow an upward trajectory.

#177 isuckless on 10.27.16 at 8:49 am

Oh, and there won’t be any bubble bursting of RE in Canada.
Slight correction that is almost done and then again off to the races – that is the only way that the economy will function and politicians stay where they are now.
T2 cannot afford economic reality.

#178 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.16 at 8:50 am

Re: #164 NEVER GIVE UP

Self driving trains are the way of the future. Not so much cars. With trains it is easy because there is no steering. You’re just timing things so they don’t hit each other (there is nothing else to hit unless someone gets on the track).

Cars and trucks are a different story altogether. Experiments thus far with self driving have been disasters. People have died. The problem they face is too many variables. Computers are terrible with large amounts of data. They can’t distinguish. A person driving a car, gets a massive data load and can eliminate 99% of the unimportant stuff and concentrate on the 1%. A computer cannot.

So you have self driving cars driving into the side of semi trucks at full speed, because the truck was painted white and it looked like the sky (actually happened). Again, data load was the problem. The computer cut out the white object as it determined it was “sky” and concentrated on other things (like maintaining speed in traffic).

If they want self driving cars, they’ll need rails on the roads and dedicated “car ways”. Once you take away steering, the computer is very good at self driving. Steering and object avoidance is going to be the big issue and it does not look like it is an issue that they will be able to solve.

#179 James on 10.27.16 at 8:52 am

#103 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 9:43 pm
Last cigarette of the night with the last wine.
Looking at myself in the mirror.
I lie he’s a handsome basterd. Lieing to one self is so over rated.
I plug the ear buds in.
This is what I hear.
https://youtu.be/dEL5F_ulqbs

Good night dogs I love you all.
…………………………………………………………………….
Amazing Smoking Man is a country music man, huh well he can’t be that bad after all. Wheres the collared greens and chicken mama!

#180 Context on 10.27.16 at 9:10 am

There are still rental deals in Toronto for a single person to save money. There is a huge studio apartment located in the upper beaches area with a unique private entrance at the side of a mansion. Its all updated inside and big enough to configure a living room and dining room setting off a modern kitchen. All utilities and parking is included for less than $900 a month.

#181 blundering snowbird on 10.27.16 at 9:27 am

#29 nothingtaboo on 10.26.16 at 6:24 pm

Just picked up a 2 bedroom rental for just over $500/month in Spain. Will enjoy the sun, warmth and lower cost of living for the next five months.

Enjoy the housing disaster in Canada.”

You are not that sharp actually…as the following website shows, the next 4-5 months have crap weather even in the hottest parts of Spain

I mean 5 degrees in January, you may as well be in Victoria!
http://www.holiday-weather.com/costa_del_sol/averages/

#182 Context on 10.27.16 at 10:08 am

#29 nothingtaboo: Oh but all rentals are in Euros and there is no way you are paying about $500 CAD. You are living in a village so will need a car rental, you had better speak more than English, and what will you do without TV or perhaps Internet as well. Enjoy your vacation in your two bedroom apartment flat.

#183 IHCTD9 on 10.27.16 at 10:14 am

#13 Gollum on 10.26.16 at 5:55 pm
Many blog posts ago, I read a comment which stated “Even if the market crashes 50%, Vancouver home prices will still be at 2012 levels. Anyone who bought back then will still be breaking even”.

If that’s true, will a housing market correction just set us back a few years at the most?
_______________________________________

That could be – but it would not end there. How many folks bought after 2012 that would be in the red and receiving “margin calls” from the bank? Probably a pile of them – and having a pile of folks underwater will only drive sour sentiment towards RE.

Then there are all the other things like low wages, crummy job market, crummy economy, crummy outlook, increased costs of borrowing on and on.

I tend to think that the decline will be slow and steady after the initial shock – and a decade long minimum.

#184 Estrella on 10.27.16 at 10:29 am

Well some will get suckered punched for sure.

Wondering if this article has any substance about an increase exodus to the outlying GTA.

http://m.orangeville.com/news-story/6932918-orangeville-outlying-areas-will-benefit-from-high-toronto-real-estate-costs-economist

Btw. “The first casualty of war is truth” was poetic. Masterful.

Any inform you can provide on the new CRA laws regarding homes on greater than 1.2 acres hobby farms. Read that proof will have to be provided that property was used for personal enjoyment. What kind of proof. An ATV, snowmobile or a wood burning stove for Bush use. Any imput and or future mention would be appreciated.

#185 westcdn on 10.27.16 at 10:31 am

Medieval banking propelled Europe out of the dark ages. The greatest danger was loaning to governments. Has this changed? The Euro may soon be a footnote. Banking has great power if managed properly.

On my Italian tour, Florence was my favorite city. Hello Romeo romance and power towers. It was under the control of the Austrian/Hungary Empire for a while so the city has the feel of Germanic organization. I kind of liked that verses Naples/Sorrento but each to their own. The early history of banking was of interest to me.

http://www.economist.com/node/13484709
http://www.faculty.umb.edu/gary_zabel/Courses/Phil%20281b/Philosophy%20of%20Magic/Dante.%20etc/Philosophers/End/bluedot/banking.html

Well I fear the USA and the Russians will nuke each other. I don’t know what will be left. I think if there are any survivors it won’t be pleasant. One of my favourite reads was a book “A day in the life of a medieval villager”. I would have been lucky to reach the age of 30. It was an improvement over 25 for the average Roman citizen. I visited a recreated medieval village in Wales. I would be ready to die after 30 years – cold and wet was all I could think. I passed a dead village while hiking the Wales costal trail. There were only 2 surnames on all the tombstones – gawd.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=bardi%20medieval%20homes&qs=n&form=QBRE&pq=bardi%20medieval%20homes&sc=0-20&sp=-1&sk=&cvid=4BFBA87FE5B64171835749885B779E52&cbust=1

I have to admit that I find listening to people is exhausting. I have to take many breaks. People seem to think this is a sign that I am indecisive – see what happens when you make me angry. I paraphrase Genghis Khan – “Don’t bring me anymore academics; I want people who can get things done”. Sounds like Trump – he is no Julius Caesar.

I still have to take a jab at Hillary. She has a huge closet full of skeletons and yet she gets nothing done except feathering her own bed – par for most politicians. It is a laundry list but Trump has his too.
https://youtu.be/wK2K5v5bm0Q

#186 Econsensus on 10.27.16 at 10:44 am

#120 LifeXpert on 10.26.16 at 10:44 pm
Check out this poll peeps

Trump 10 – 1 over Clinton

80,000 votes

https://www.facebook.com/chad.david.357/posts/10154145264788510?pnref=story

——————————————————

I just checked the post and viewed details about the people commented. They are from all over the US.. the post has been shared over 11,000 times and it is viral. At this moment, it has over well over 100,000 comments… Trump in a landslide. It’s not even close!

#187 IHCTD9 on 10.27.16 at 10:46 am

#200 Ace Goodheart on 10.26.16 at 5:13 pm
#195 IHCTD9

“Well Ace, I’m glad a fearful existence working for peanuts, and loaded up on debt for a 25% chance at a better job is what you call successful immigration. I guess new Canadians would pretty much have to be shot in the street for you to think things didn’t work out great.”

That is what we all do isn’t it? Go to University or College, load up on debt, don’t necessarily tell our employers that we’re aiming for bigger and brighter things, and hope for something better? That is what I did and I was born here.

I don’t get the problem with this recent immigrant’s situation. Sounds like things are going well for him and he’s a man with a plan. I wish him all the best of luck. 25% is pretty good in my books. I wouldn’t have given myself 25% when I went into my first year of undergrad, but 21 years later here I am earning 220k per year as a professional.

Back then I worked shoveling snow at night, had a second job during the day and pulled a full course load on top of that.

I don’t get it. What are you trying to say?

_________________________________________

We all live in fear, swim in debt, and work for peanuts? Uh, no Ace, at least outside the GTA we don’t. You sure aren’t eh? I can appreciate a little idealism, but you’ve gone off the deep end with it. Most folks I know would call a life like this worthy of a swan dive off a bridge.

I can’t make myself any clearer Ace, I think you just don’t want to get it. You’d rather think that most new (or native) Canadians just have to put their nose to the grindstone and follow in your footsteps and they’ll all be just fine.

I’ll be sure to pass on that shoveling snow and doing a lot of course work idea. He’s probably never considered it. I know he’ll believe that it leads to a 220K/yr salary right away – for sure he will.

21 years ago is a long time buddy – much has changed since then, not the least of which is the near worthlessness and expense of a degree. You got educated, worked hard, and got a good job – great. Are most stories like yours? Not a snowflake’s chance in hell.

Time to get real.

#188 InvestorsFriend on 10.27.16 at 11:13 am

YES, MONEY IS LIKE SAUSAGE… I’LL TAKE BOTH

#156 Jim2 on 10.27.16 at 3:01 am said:

Negative Interest Rates?
‘Money is like sausage, if you saw how it was made you wouldn’t want any’.

********************************

Cute saying. Agreed there are those that would indeed find the making of sausage or money alarming and would send out dire warnings.

In both cases they are wrong. In theory there could be poison in sausage and there could be problems in money creation.

In practice, in Canada there is nothing alarming nor nefarious in how sausage or money is created and most thinking people do indeed want money despite the alarmists misconceptions.

Too much sausage is bad for you. Some argue that too much money won’t make you happy. That is a risk I am willing to take.

#189 IHCTD9 on 10.27.16 at 11:17 am

#163 Toronto1 on 10.27.16 at 6:26 am
#105 the workd of renting pain

Migration is going to stop the RE? Please expand on this theory. As it did not in Ireland, Spain, USA etc.. but its different in Canada.

It has a near zero effect as its herd mentality and greed that drive prices up with access to cheap credit. Access to credit is now dimished via the new regs. Add up the average mrdian income in a city, whatever amount of credit that qualifies for is were the market is headed.

The RE agents crack me up. In the GTA we are headed for 2010-11-12 prices soon. Guess something must have changed from 2012-2016 because apparently its a new paradigm.

Ever heard of over compacity?
_______________________________________

One thing to keep in mind regarding the GTA RE market and the new Federal regs:

I would not be surprised to see Wynnie doing [insert gender neutral pronoun here] best to undermine Wild Bill’s efforts. In fact, undermining these efforts could pave the way for [insert gender neutral pronoun here] re-election – even if[insert gender neutral pronoun here] would no longer be friends with Trudeau if [insert gender neutral pronoun here] goes down that path.

[insert gender neutral pronoun here] knows [insert gender neutral pronoun here with ” ‘s ” at the end of it] in trouble, so [insert gender neutral pronoun here with ” ‘s ” at the end of it] looking for a way to save [insert gender neutral pronoun here]self.

#190 Alex on 10.27.16 at 11:18 am

//Rents will rise, since fewer people will be buying and vacancy rates squeezed.//

Here goes (to the toilet) housing affordability…
Renting is cheap and smart, eh?

Actually economic laws ARE applicable in Canada, and in RE as well. The basic one is supply&demand. That why the prices are rising (luck of HOUSING supply, does not matter for buying or renting). All other are mostly noise.
Feds tried to DECREASED demand on homeowners market, but with NO additional supply they just INCREASED demand on rent market…Zero sum game after all. And with even more decreasing home starts it will be worse in future.
They not only worsen affordability to buy, but to rent as well. Thus low-segment person aka first-time buyers now could not buy and have to pay for rent more. Brilliant. Especially for libs so “cared” about low-income, youth etc.

If someone cares about affordability, he should build more on first hand, especially rent buildings. And only after that squeeze the buyers. In last 10 years it was zero rent houses built in Burlington, all hi-rises and rent-townhomes are 20+ years old…The only new rent units are coming from “investors” in condo and SHF properties. And they are quite expensive, as landlords are setting rent from CURRENT prices. The same townhouse that we’re paying mortgage $1200 (bought 6 years ago) now is rented for $2000 PLUS utilities, MORE then our mortgage+taxes+repairs…

#191 IHCTD9 on 10.27.16 at 11:27 am

#180 Estrella on 10.27.16 at 10:29 am

Any inform you can provide on the new CRA laws regarding homes on greater than 1.2 acres hobby farms. Read that proof will have to be provided that property was used for personal enjoyment. What kind of proof. An ATV, snowmobile or a wood burning stove for Bush use. Any imput and or future mention would be appreciated.
________________________________________

Probably 25% of the guys I work with have some kind of livestock on their property and a place to keep them safe and warm. Is a “hobby farm” now a “source of income” ie. guilty until you prove otherwise scenario to the CRA now?

IMHO, this sounds like something you just do and plead ignorance if it ever becomes an issue…

#192 45north on 10.27.16 at 11:30 am

jane24: One of the reasons for sticky RE prices is often that the house is mortgaged to the top old value with a LOC in play as well. To lower the price the owner would need to take a cheque to the close and there is no money to do that.

that’s what happened in the US

Ace Goodheart: There are people out there right now, who if the median price of a Vancouver house goes down say 17%, will lose a number of millions of dollars in net worth (because they own a lot of houses, all strung together in strings of mortgages like a daisy chain).

One of the people is Chaddywack’s guy who mortgaged his house to buy four more. Ross Kay says that Vancouver has lost 19% right now. I guess that the guy has rented out the houses and his employment income is making up the difference. He doesn’t know it yet but he’s desperate. Just missing one month’s rent and he’ll know it.

#193 FIVRE on 10.27.16 at 11:30 am

“The person whom you’ve been so fond of quoting lately is Steve Saretsky. Let’s look a little closer at this prognosticator, market observer and economist extraordinaire.

Mid twenties. He’s been selling real estate for 2 years. Before that he painted houses and worked at a golf course. He attended a high school (not sure if he graduated). He took a couple of business courses at Selkirk college – that would be that little community college in the booming metropolis of Castelgar, BC. And he took one real estate course.”

Who cares. Does that make him less able to look at the stats that come across his desk everyday?
He’s one of the very few realtors that are bothering to give us real time data. He’s offering his opinion on the data, and the data is pretty dismal so it’d look far worse if he tried to spin it rather than sound bearish (as he does)

He’s young and he’s trying to build his reputation and future business, good for him, my bet is it’ll probably work.

#194 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.27.16 at 11:36 am

#165 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.16 at 6:55 am
The Vancouver situation is actually slightly worse than everyone here thinks. This news will come out in the next few months (in the form of very upset people basically crying that their life savings are gone). What has been happening is folks have been “buying up” Vancouver houses as long term investments. In the usual North American capitalist way, these people have then been mortgaging the increase in value of the houses and using the funds to purchase more houses.

There are people out there right now, who if the median price of a Vancouver house goes down say 17%, will lose a number of millions of dollars in net worth (because they own a lot of houses, all strung together in strings of mortgages like a daisy chain).

That is apparently why there are all those empty houses.

At any rate this will come out in a few months. Right now these folks are quiet still but very frightened. Emotions have a weird effect on people. You will start to see things blow up really spectacularly by December, if Vancouver prices don’t start to go up again…..
————————————————————
After the serious financial harm this bubble has caused members of my Family, the only word I can think of is …
Schadenfreude
Or in English… Deliriously happy at your misfortune!

#195 Alex on 10.27.16 at 11:37 am

#87 Price drops and fewer sales in TO

Really? Zolo.ca has different information

https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/trends
+12.1%
Monthly change

108%
selling to listing price ratio

Graph itself quite seasonal, just prices are 24% higher then 1y ago…

#196 Context on 10.27.16 at 11:40 am

#177 blundering snowbird:- I am sure he mean’t well taking his wife on a dream retirement vacation as what could go wrong. Unfortunately all expenditures are in Euros but love conquers the cold and rain for 5 months with some occasional sunshine. The landlord might show up forgetting to tell them that the hydro, heat, and water are an additional expense and needs 1000 Euros upfront, but gives them umbrellas and raincoats free of charge. A rental car is not necessary to get them to market a few miles away, as in the garage is free transportation included in the rent. Before he leaves to his exclusive villa he introduces himself as Rowan Atkinson. The husband and wife rush off to the garage and there are two donkeys that need to be fed before they go to the market.

#197 Penny Henny on 10.27.16 at 11:49 am

#154 Wow on 10.27.16 at 2:49 am
Oh yea, Steve Saretsky has worked for Sutton for 9 months. He no longer works for Re-max. That’s his third real estate firm in his illustriously long career of 2 years.

He has zero listings. As has been using his web page vancitycondoguide.com as a way to market himself. It hasn’t been at all successful yet.

/////////////////////////

Too funny.
But he has a blog right?

#198 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.27.16 at 11:50 am

#174 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.16 at 8:50 am
Re: #164 NEVER GIVE UP
————————————————————
Thank you for the thoughtful response.
I disagree with you in your distrust of technology.

Right now this type of moving vehicle technology is keeping us safely flying to our destinations.

Yes, there are still plane crashes but every crash is a learning experience and Planes keep getting safer and safer and I might say way safer than if totally piloted by humans.

I just cringe when I think of all the people I see out there still texting while driving. How many of them are loaded with alcohol , Speed, Crack, Heroin?

I am grateful to our higher power, that I have driven several million miles so far and my number has not come up.

The smart phone in your hand is a thousand time more powerful than the first PC’s and in 10 years will be unbelievably powerful.

http://www.t3.com/features/your-phone-in-20-years

Have a little faith!

#199 The Technical Analyst (aka A Canadian Abroad) on 10.27.16 at 11:51 am

Always sell high, buy low. Those not selling (or god forbid, wanting to buy), ask yourself:

“How much Upside is left in the RE Market vs Downside risk”.

No one ever got hurt selling for a profit.

#200 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.16 at 12:08 pm

RE: #183 IHCTD9

“You got educated, worked hard, and got a good job – great. Are most stories like yours? Not a snowflake’s chance in hell.”

I didn’t get a good job. I got no job at all. Never worked full time for anyone on this continent. I got a professional qualification and started a business. Started it out of my apartment actually.

North Americans are trained to understand that life should look like this: go to school, get your ticket, someone hires you and money starts falling from the sky into your bank account. Never worry about anything, ever again.

This is because of our school system. It is operated by teachers who have this experience, full time work, forever, everything taken care of, pension, benefits, never worry again.

This is all just a big lie. Most of the world knows this. Immigrants know it, because the countries they come from for the most part don’t have education systems that teach this nonsense (some have no education systems at all).

In North America, what people in developing countries do as a matter of course, is known as “entrepreneur ism” and it is a big scary thing that no one wants to do because it is unsafe and dangerous. We are taught from the get go, to get jobs. Be subservient. Have a boss. Be good. Go to work 9-5. As I said above this is a load of garbage perpetrated on us by a nanny state education system run by individuals who have never experienced anything other than full time, permanent, secure work as educators.

There is no necessity whatsoever of “getting a job” in Canada, anywhere. What a person needs to do, is get ticketed in something, and then start offering their services to the public. It is much better, not to work for someone else.

RE: “We all live in fear, swim in debt, and work for peanuts? Uh, no Ace, at least outside the GTA we don’t. You sure aren’t eh? I can appreciate a little idealism, but you’ve gone off the deep end with it. Most folks I know would call a life like this worthy of a swan dive off a bridge.”

Again this is really typical North American thinking. Someone having just left Syria and come here looking for a new life would not be thinking, “gee this sucks I have to work for peanuts for a while till I get my ticket in something, then I can earn more money”. They probably would be thinking “there is food everywhere, everyone is happy, no one is shooting at us, our apartment is not being bombed, there is electricity and water 24 hours a day?” North Americans just really totally do not get how 90% of the world’s population actually lives. Really, to understand it, they would have to go live in the third world.

I have actually done that (lived in third world countries). It is not an experience I can easily forget. Human life is worthless in these places. I can’t count the amount of recently deceased persons I came across in my daily life. No one cares. There is no friendly government that people sue whenever something goes wrong in their lives and that provides health care and services. Criticize the government and they just come at night and no one sees you ever again. Police don’t ask questions they just shoot you. Family ties and connections mean everything. No one’s ever heard of an election. One day some gang of thugs come along and raid your town, the next day half the buildings are burnt to the ground and half the population is dead. No one cares. You have a right to exactly nothing.

Really, you have no idea how most of the world’s population actually lives. Ever wonder why a recent immigrant works their butt off to succeed here? Because they CAN. Upward mobility is possible and we have the nanny state to coddle you while you make your ascent. The rest of the world is not remotely like your experience here. Trust me I have lived there.

Go spend a few years in a third world country, then come back and tell me that it is a big concern that a recent immigrant to Canada from one of these places might have to work a bit to get ahead or go back to school or be in “poverty” (the North American idea of poverty is a joke, running water 24 hours a day, electricity, free health care – you have not experienced real poverty if you live in Canada – it does not exist here).

#201 Mr. Frugal on 10.27.16 at 12:12 pm

DELETED

#202 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.27.16 at 12:15 pm

Regarding my post about technology.

It is always prudent to wait for bugs to be ironed out with all new tech.

In my case I prefer to fly 777’s or any plane that has at least a 10 year track record.

The new Dreamliners are beautiful and I will fly them only if there is no other choice.

Singapore Airlines is ditching the new A380’s. There are problems, but so far no one has died.

Always wait for others to do the test piloting if it is reasonable to do so. Same will go for Self Driving Cars.

The guy who died in the Tesla was ignoring the warnings regarding the new technology…too bad.

#203 Mr. Frugal on 10.27.16 at 12:18 pm

I covered up my canoe for the winter. Now I’m worried that the PC cops are going to come and confiscate it. Apparently the canoe is a symbolism of colonialism, oppression and genocide.

https://youtu.be/u-ixXleiA8s

These are the morons that are teaching our kids.

#204 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.16 at 12:27 pm

RE: #194 NEVER GIVE UP

“Thank you for the thoughtful response.
I disagree with you in your distrust of technology.

Right now this type of moving vehicle technology is keeping us safely flying to our destinations.”

It actually isn’t. I have a pilot license so I know a bit about this. Commercial flights run on autopilot are run on “airways” and under constant air traffic control. The auto pilot takes care of the flight controls to allow the pilots to take care of other matters essential to the flight. Imagine you are piloting a commercial airliner for 8 hours over an ocean. You don’t want to be making constant heading adjustments and constantly adjusting the air speed and flight controls. It is tiring. So you have a computer do that. You are flying a pre determined flight path, and you have a flight plan. You check in at reporting points as you go. You are also having to take care of reporting and international border crossing, monitor the weather, make decisions as to diversion and altitude based on data that you are getting as to weather, jet stream and the like. So the auto pilot frees you up so you can do that. Otherwise you are spending 8 hours on the stick, adjusting heading, recalculating your course, checking the GPS (remember you are over an Ocean so you don’t have any visual way of knowing where you are).

You don’t hit other aircraft, because you are flying a flight plan controlled by ATC. No one is supposed to be in the same place as you.

If we were to extrapolate how a commercial air craft is flown, to computer controlled cars, it would be necessary for each driver to file a plan with a central controlling body, as to where their car was going to be each moment of the trip, and that central body would arrange it so that no other car would ever occupy the same space. The car would then have to report as to position at specified points in the trip, to maintain separation.

Do you want to file a “driving plan” before you set out to the grocery store?

Airplanes are not really comparable to cars. There is no computer controls on an aircraft that keeps it from hitting other aircraft and they do not operate at the close distances from each other that cars operate at. It is a totally different situation.

#205 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.27.16 at 12:44 pm

#32 Smoking Man on 10.26.16 at 6:29 pm
Yup looks like YVR is screwed. Now watch the listing fall off the face of the earth.

Canadians are stubbornly stupid when it comes to this stuff.

Would rather die than take a lose.
————
Noticed houses being taken off the market in Richmond.
Chinese investors are a patient bunch.
Don’t like to lose “face”.

#206 cto on 10.27.16 at 12:47 pm

CMHC’s dire warning!!!!! Red Flag! Red Flag!

CMHC’s interpretation of their scary red flag?… what does it mean? In there perspective…”well…you are not going to make as much off housing as you used to”. (very muted).

These guys are a joke, they have been one of the main contributors to the unaffordable housing costs in Canada for a couple decades. Now they see data and evidence they don’t like and finally issue their “red flag” but are so scared that if they stand behind it, they might burst the bubble they created and crucify the Canadian economy.

#207 Context on 10.27.16 at 12:49 pm

#180 Estrella: – This is an easy one. Stage photos throughout the four seasons and frame them on the walls showing that the hobby farm is being used for personal enjoyment all year round. Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter pictures will do it. Each picture is worth a thousand words.

#208 Dewflicker on 10.27.16 at 12:51 pm

2014? Yawn. What does a real pull back look like in YVR, one that actually freaks the strong hands out, ie those who have paid off their houses? It is a long way down and doubtful we will see much downside. At some point the CD tax will be understood as the new normal, the price one pays to park your money in a safe jurisdiction (well, safe until the next tax – NDP win in BC and all bets are off)

#209 Victor V on 10.27.16 at 12:58 pm

Email alert from a prominent Toronto mortgage broker.

=============

Hi XXXX:

Tricks and tips to get approved for a higher mortgage amount.

1) Plain and simple, talk to me first before you say too much to your bank, we deal with most banks at the wholesale level.

2) Consider putting that expensive car lease into a numbered company, once it’s off your credit bureau, you will qualify for much more

3) Get a secured line of credit on another property to make up for the short-fall.

We are here to help you, and we know exactly how to position you to: the banks, and mortgage lenders.

Purchases, refinances, and renewals – APPROVED!

Sincerely,

XXXX

#210 InvestorsFriend on 10.27.16 at 1:03 pm

Banking and Banks are Mostly Wonderful

#181 westcdn on 10.27.16 at 10:31 am said:

Medieval banking propelled Europe out of the dark ages.

******************************************
Yes, indeed so. And banking (yes debt) has propelled the economy ever since. Banking creates money which is just an intangible claim check on real goods and services. It also greatly facilitates people to work hard and create real goods and services and infrastructure of all kinds.

The success and steady progress of the western world since the middle ages is far more than correlated with the rise of banking and debt. It was facilitated (even largely caused by) banking and debt. There were other factors like freedom and the rule of law and property ownership. But banking and yes debt was an ESSENTIAL component.

Of course some people and even countries over do it and gorge on debt and flame out because of it, but those who think banking and fiat money are inherently evil and harmful are simply very very wrong.

#211 S.Bby on 10.27.16 at 1:11 pm

Some new action in Burnaby:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3027981/michael-bubles-27000-sq-ft-burnaby-home-construction-causing-complaints/

#212 traderJim on 10.27.16 at 1:12 pm

#164 and #174 both make good points.

I am not opposed to self driving cars/trucks, I just see it as a lot of hype, it will be many years before all the bugs are ironed out. Just reminds me a little of Y2K.

I do like the idea of being able to ‘drive’ home after a night out and not worry about it. And it really could save tens of thousands of lives each year, which is a worthwhile goal.

Ace made an excellent point that I was thinking of as well. People talking about ‘convoys’ of trucks being lead by one driver, going all night. Imagine if they invented steel rails with vehicles specially designed to run on those rails, and ran them all across the country so that huge convoys could be pulled, without even having to interfere with road traffic, how great would that be? lol

I once read a report about how trucks are massively subsidized by having roads built for them at no cost, and that rail traffic was unfairly penalized as a result. Makes sense to me.

Anyway, it’s all good, I just think the benefits of self driving are being exaggerated and the difficulties are being ignored.

And I am still wondering, exactly who is making money off of this?

#213 Van is a dump on 10.27.16 at 1:19 pm

Homeless, homeless, homeless everywhere in this once beautiful city. I’ve been coming here for 20 years on and off a couple times per year. Never have I seen such a mess in Vancouver, actually haven’t seen such a mess in any supposedly “world class” city.

The people have nowhere to live, the roads need upgrades and maintenance and the public buildings are in disrepair. Painting over cracks doesn’t fix the structure.

Just by how things look there on the ground, my guess is the city needs billions in funds to repair, upgrade or maintain. Do they have this money? The amount of people living on the sidewalks would suggest NOT.

Bentley parked on crappy roads in front of a luxury retailer and homeless huddled in sleeping bags under the benches.

Imagine this and try and think where you’ve seen this.
Mexico City? Detroit? Chicago? New York (prior to Rudy)?

Yes, yes, yes and yes.

Vancouver is going downhill and fast. I don’t know why investors would think their purchase of an asset there was a good idea. At least Mexico City is a capitol city of some sort and Chicago has several headquarters of US and multi national corps.

Well, there’s Detroit of course. Vancouver is sort of like Detroit but without the remnants of a once great automobile industry.

Get out and really, get out. Travel around the world and see for yourselves how European and Asian (even African) cities and metropolis have improved over the last couple decades and then go back to Vancouver.

Yikes! Who wants to live there anymore? The current problems are insurmountable and the coming collapse is going to finish whatever appeal this city might have had.

#214 CMHC on 10.27.16 at 1:42 pm

Cmhc says “it’s not problematic for prices to go up”,

#215 Rusty on 10.27.16 at 1:50 pm

@ #123 Mark
“Suncor numbers out tonight. They absolutely demolished analysts’ estimates. Those who think the Canadian TSX stock market is in some sort of bubble really are out to lunch here. Similar deal with Canadian National Railway yesterday. And Barrick. With falling labour costs, only minor deflation in prices, and credit that is rapidly becoming less expensive for business, the TSX will easily power itself considerably higher over the coming years both on the strength of earnings growth, as well as speculative money flowing out of housing speculation after years of stagnation, and towards currently out of favour assets.”

THIS WAS ALSO SAID ABOUT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET AND LOOK WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW!!! THIS STOCK MARKET WILL FOLLOW AND COLLAPSE!!!

#216 RyYYZ on 10.27.16 at 2:01 pm

#40 Maj on 10.26.16 at 6:47 pm

Priced out of Hamilton? I can believe it. Perhaps asking prices are just that, but I’ve recently seen a largish, but nothing special suburban house in my Stoney Creek/Elfrida area (way out on the outskirts – the other side of Centennial Parkway, which I live within a stone’s throw of, is all farmland still) going for nearly a million. Looking on realtor.ca yesterday, I noticed another fairly unremarkable house in my neighbourhood, which is just typical suburbia, going for $849,000. It looks like a pretty nice house, with a tile roof and such, but not $850,000 worth of nice.

You can probably still get a house pretty cheaply in the crappy east end of Hamilton, if you don’t mind taking a chance on your neighbour being a meth lab or a Hell’s Angels hangout.

#217 Grey Dog on 10.27.16 at 2:06 pm

This year, given the circumstances Canadian housing market was in, had you been Wild Bill, what would you have done?

I have learned so much from this blog, I kinda like what Wild Bill has done, I like the accountability of primary home with CRA. I like the mortgage stress test, it would take the blinders off everyone…adult children and their parents.

#218 IHCTD9 on 10.27.16 at 2:11 pm

#196 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.16 at 12:08 pm

Holy Cow, I am not reading all that.

If you want to keep thinking that immigrants are doing great in the GTA, that’s cool with me…

#219 Trrrrrrump on 10.27.16 at 2:28 pm

#182 Econsensus

The only way Hillary will win is by voter fraud. What are the chances of that happening???…100%…not good for equities in the long run

Great Britain’s GDP increased since BREXIT (as reported). On an annualized basis, they are doing much better than Canada! Good for them.

#220 Mr. Frugal on 10.27.16 at 2:45 pm

Donald Trump was live on Facebook with 44K viewers. Almost all of the comments were positive. They love him. Just for fun, I went over to Hillary’s live feed. She has 35K viewers and probably 20% of them are Trump trolls spewing out comments. This is shaping up to be a Reagan style landslide. Bet accordingly. The S&P 500 goes on sale on Nov 9th.

#221 bdwy sktrn on 10.27.16 at 2:51 pm

#146 Broadway Bust on 10.27.16 at 1:23 am
… you must have recently bought…defending your hood isn’t going to stop the loss. The fact is that houses in the area are down 15-20% from just a few months ago FACT 2590 Adanac is a prime example $1.425 sold … easily would have fetched 1.7
——————————–
1.7 for RS1 zoning, maybe a stretch.

if only it was 2 blocks west, across nanaimo, it would be good for 4 units, 2 duplexes, but where it sits not even one duplex is allowed.

after we bought prices went sideways for about 4 years. we never noticed as mls was not invented yet and RE was not talked about much. van was quite backwater compared to today.

btw there was never any ‘margin call’

#222 bdwy sktrn on 10.27.16 at 3:14 pm

one could always sell and rent something nice since prices are going to fall so hard…

this is smaller, but decent, no garage, good location

$4495 / 3br – Charming, Bright Furnished 3bdrm, 2 bath Craftsman Home in Great Area

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5762078492.html

YIKES!

#223 Nemesis on 10.27.16 at 3:18 pm

#ThursdayMischief,Or… #ATaleOfTwoCities… #WhenHanSuesSong…

[CBC] – Vancouver real estate: Lawsuit claims $6.7M house deal tied to private school entry: Woman claims purchase of $6.7M Vancouver home was supposed to gain daughter a place in prestigious school

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/lawsuit-house-private-school-1.3821361

#WaitingForTheBigOne… #ThoseOtherSchools…

[CBC] – Parent groups ask feds to pay for seismic upgrades to high-risk B.C. schools

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/seismic-upgrade-school-1.3823394

#BonusMischief!…

“I got a professional qualification and started a business. Started it out of my apartment actually.” – AG

#SoDid”Dr.”Wu…

[CBC] – B.C. man’s illegal dental practice shut down: Seized equipment from ‘bedroom dentist’ not sterilized properly

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-man-s-illegal-dental-practice-shut-down-1.1324570

#224 jess on 10.27.16 at 3:21 pm

David Leask and Richard Smith

the SLP loophole.
INTERNET tycoons who used a Scottish firm to front for a global financial gambling empire have been arrested for mass tax evasion in Israel. ,,,
The Herald can reveal that one of their main websites – ubinary.com, described as a “scam” by Australia’s financial regulator – is fronted by a Scottish limited partnership or SLP.

The firm, UB Innovative Partners LP, of Edinburgh, is one of thousands of such firms registered in recent years whose owners, under a controversial loophole in Scots law, are able to remain secret, file no accounts and pay no taxes.

binary option scams
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14823725.Tax_evasion_arrests_in_Israel_for_tycoons_using_Scots_firm/

#225 traderJim on 10.27.16 at 3:38 pm

#205 Victor

Excellent point. As soon as the new rules came out I knew that the first response from people in the business would be ‘how do we get around this?’

Just as in the USA bubble, people will be falsifying income and assets, and the lenders will look the other way, as long as they can offload bad loan risk to taxpayers.

If the changes to make the lenders shoulder even some amount of loan losses are actually effective, maybe this can be avoided. Jury is still out imo.

#226 Canadian Housing Bubble on 10.27.16 at 3:42 pm

Interesting listening to Marc Cohodes talking to Amber Kanwar on BNN today. He is still shorting HCG and EQG in Canada. Three weeks ago he estimated that EQB has 1.2 billion of uninsured loan exposure in Alberta, which calculates to 130% of Book Value.

#227 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.16 at 3:51 pm

#213 IHCTD9

“If you want to keep thinking that immigrants are doing great in the GTA, that’s cool with me…”

Cool. I think they are probably doing better than they were in the places that they recently left (particularly the Syrians).

#228 Realitybytes on 10.27.16 at 4:15 pm

A graph with no quantifiable scale on either X or Y axis isn’t worth the electrons it takes to display.

#229 Econsensus on 10.27.16 at 4:26 pm

#120 LifeXpert on 10.26.16 at 10:44 pm
“Check out this poll peeps

Trump 10 – 1 over Clinton

80,000 votes”

So your poll is unbiased, why?

Husband’s from Kansas, wife’s a high school drop out. They seem to live in North Carolina. Their network is likely predominantly white people in the South. Why would you expect anything different that Republican dominance?

FYI, North Carolina’s recent poll. Slim lead for Clinton in a state Romney won:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html

————————————————-

Karma, as of the 4:20 pm EST, the poll been shared over 13,000 times and has over 110,000 comments. If you would spend some time and reference the info of the commentators, you would see they are from all over the US and from all walks of life. There is no restriction on comments.. White, Black, Hispanic, Democrat, Republican, Independent, whatever, whoever can comment. Herdonomics 101.
Landslide is an understatement.. It’s a Trump Avalanche.

https://www.facebook.com/chad.david.357/posts/10154145264788510

#230 Trrrrrrrrrrump on 10.27.16 at 4:34 pm

#207

Nice piece of news! Economic success story for sure…but for an average schmuck like myself (I don’t make millions a year) I refuse to hand over my hard earned cash to watch these performers. In Taiwan, the average show costs 10$ – 15$ to see the big names and they make way more money than us here in Canada!

#231 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.16 at 4:37 pm

RE: #218 Nemesis:

#SoDid”Dr.”Wu…

[CBC] – B.C. man’s illegal dental practice shut down: Seized equipment from ‘bedroom dentist’ not sterilized properly

I mean like, actually have a ticket and actually follow the rules of your profession. Not talking about quack doctoring or illegal practice……

#232 jess on 10.27.16 at 5:10 pm

good now shut em down up here too
————–
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Dozens of Individuals Indicted in Multimillion-Dollar Indian Call Center Scam Targeting U.S. Victims

Today, an indictment was unsealed charging a total of 61 individuals and entities for their alleged involvement in a transnational criminal organization that has victimized tens of thousands of persons in the United States through fraudulent schemes that have resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. In connection with the scheme, 20 individuals were arrested today in the United States and 32 individuals and five call centers in India were charged for their alleged involvement. An additional U.S.-based defendant is currently in the custody of immigration authorities.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/dozens-individuals-indicted-multimillion-dollar-indian-call-center-scam-targeting-us-victims

#233 Braj on 10.27.16 at 5:18 pm

#223 Realitybytes on 10.27.16 at 4:15 pm
A graph with no quantifiable scale on either X or Y axis isn’t worth the electrons it takes to display.

Electrons are free bro.

#234 Victor V on 10.27.16 at 5:53 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/national-bank-of-canada-cuts-600-jobs-takes-175-million-charge/article32542536/?service=mobile

National Bank of Canada’s decision to cut 600 jobs and take a $175-million restructuring charge underlines the realities of slow economic growth and a fast-changing competitive environment for Canada’s banks.

#235 Victor V on 10.27.16 at 6:00 pm

Trump Hotel Toronto building set to be sold after developer defaults

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/property-post/trump-hotel-toronto-building-set-to-be-sold-after-developer-defaults&pubdate=2016-10-27

#236 Bottoms_Up on 10.27.16 at 6:01 pm

#223 Realitybytes on 10.27.16 at 4:15 pm
———————————-
Actually, in this case, it is used to illustrate a point (couple of points). Reversion to the mean, as well as public mood/sentiment at various phases.

It is quite a powerful graph and message.

#237 Ace Goodheart on 10.28.16 at 5:53 pm

#227 Jess:

“Thursday, October 27, 2016
Dozens of Individuals Indicted in Multimillion-Dollar Indian Call Center Scam Targeting U.S. Victims”

Yup I’ve received these calls. There is a whole write up about this on the net. I called them back. They answer like “Canada Revenue, agent so and so” and I just start yelling at them. The guy was like “f-you” and was swearing at me once I got going with him. Definitely not a real agent.

Nice they got caught.