Next?

disaster-modified

Let’s start this last full autumnal October week with a few follow-up items.

First, that election. Never before have two more deeply flawed people sought the world’s most important job. Somehow the contest between a racist, misogynist buffoon and an untrustworthy career political hack has become epically aggrandized. Now it’s a struggle between nationalism and globalism, between the 99% and the 1%, between workers and corps, between web expression and the MSM, between war and accommodation, between democracy and elitism – and no longer just left vs right.

Sadly, neither candidate’s worthy of embodying anything other than their own narcissistic ambition, but with a few days remaining, tough. The outcome of this vote will be significant, and the one night involved, historic. So let’s make the most of it.

The suggestion was put forward that the comment section of this pathetic blog go live and unfiltered on election night. I agree. Almost.

Blog dog Ted offers this thought: “Throw the comments open, no holds barred, maybe a disclaimer that opinions expressed are not necessarily…etc. let the loons spew and then without warning, remove the comment column once and for all.

“Sadly, what was the short tattered lunatic fringe pre-internet and antisocial media has grown into a long and elaborate lunatic theatre curtain flowing across and off the stage into the audience.  What was once a lone wild eyed nutter handing out tracts in the supermarket parking lot has become mainstream. Every guy or gal pumping up his ego life raft, every cockamamie response and link to reactionary loon sites has to have been received in the comments section at least a hundred times. Reading the same ca-ca daily must seem like groundhog day or a prof reading freshman essays for the 30th straight year or…you get the drill.”

I do. Without fail, after I moderate comments for an hour or two in the evening, Dorothy looks at me and says, “You know you’ll never get that time back, right? You could have been spending it with me.” I feel so cheap.

Well, on the night of the 8th, no moderation, only deserving deletions. Bandit has been tasked to man the D button. I’ll be in the bunker with my wife.

$   $   $

As you now know, the feds on Friday unleashed a ‘consultation’ process which will end more than six decades of government mismanagement of mortgages. No longer will taxpayers backstop all of the risk involved in lending to people without money to buy houses can’t afford. Ottawa intends on imposing a deductible on lenders, so they’re responsible for some of the damage – just like when you drive your car into the garage door while texting.

It’s a huge deal in the mortgage business, where lenders already feel unloved after Wild Bill Morneau brought in a stiff stress test for moisters and diddled with insurance regs disqualifying many existing clients. Now, horrors, they’ll be asked to eat some losses.

The industry bible, ‘Canadian Mortgage Trends’ waxed long on the topic during the weekend. Thought you might be interested in the conclusions reached as to how this will impact borrowers, and the market:

How might consumers fare: Here’s what we expect:
Mortgage rates will shoot up as lenders try to offset this new cost, and as bank challengers become less able to undercut the banks.
Lending will partially dry up, or incur material surcharges, in rural, remote, high-unemployment or economically undiversified areas.
Insurance premiums may drop (one potential bright spot in all of this).
How much could rates jump: In short, meaningfully.
The DoF (Department of Finance) writes, “Preliminary analysis suggests the average increase in lender costs over a five-year period could be 20 to 30 basis points1 (That’s over five years)
Preliminary estimates from four lenders we spoke with are that the DoF’s estimates are laughably low, that the rate increase required to offset these changes is at least 15-20 basis each year.
The DoF suggests rates could rise more for “loans with lower credit scores in a region with historically higher loan losses.”

The changes are likely to be law by the end of 2017, or shortly thereafter. Govern yourself accordingly.

$   $   $

So what will all this mean for the value of your house? Last week I estimated about a 15% correction in prices over a year or so, and after that a long period of erratic melt. Nobody knows for sure, as this depends on the path of interest rates, commodity prices, GDP growth and whether or not we have a rabid protectionist and free trade-ripper in the White House.

van-sales

Meanwhile the National Bank has published its own predictions. Vancouver detached houses will fall 20% in value over the next 12 months, taking the average house from about $1,579,400 million to $1.263 million – a decline of more than $315,000, it says. Attached houses will drop less (-9%) as will condos (-5%). The bank says Toronto will be largely spared (overall prices -3%) because of an historic lack of supply (down 37% year/year).

Finally, on Wednesday CMHC will be issuing its first-ever Code Red alert for Canadian residential real estate, covering the entire national market. This means the agency sees overheating of demand, price acceleration, house price overvaluation and overbuilding.

No locusts, but close. Still time to bail.

180 comments ↓

#1 Polls R Phake on 10.23.16 at 6:11 pm

I would ask anyone who does not like Trump to watch this speech. Cross reference it with anything that is even close to Clinton. Then come back and say Clinton is a better candidate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_R4L-Os2LSI

#2 common sense on 10.23.16 at 6:15 pm

Dorothy for Woman of the decade…

#3 DisgustMadeMePost on 10.23.16 at 6:16 pm

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/curious-undecided-went-for-trump/

Mr T.. Will post again here since you’re talking politics!

Disregard previous!

#4 Lulu on 10.23.16 at 6:17 pm

Okay!!! I’ll stock up popcorn and pop for the 8th, it’s gonna be more entertaining than the Jays game. YeeHaa!!!!

I wonder what will happen during next Spring consider this Winter will be very cold and snowy, seem a prediction of the coming RE market as well, dress warm and stock up for the shxt show!!!

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.16 at 6:19 pm

Let the rise in rates begin!

#6 This Week in Money on 10.23.16 at 6:20 pm

Ross Kay on This Week in Money:
Vancouver has set a North American Record for the Biggest Decline in Residential Real Estate Value Over The Shortest Period of Time.
http://www.howestreet.com/2016/10/22/this-week-in-money-75/

#7 SimplyPut7 on 10.23.16 at 6:30 pm

I doubt Toronto will be spared, the number of listings that have appeared in the Greater Toronto Area over the last 2 weeks and in price ranges I haven’t seen in over 2 years have been quite large. The house down the street from me dropped their price twice, down $90k over the past 2.5 weeks. I have never seen this many open houses and empty and/or staged homes listed on the market in October.

#8 Fish on 10.23.16 at 6:30 pm

Nova Scotia, we lost sears, ( the wish book) gone what is next, bucket down folks we are going have to ride it out, and it doesn’t look good.

#9 Ace Goodheart on 10.23.16 at 6:38 pm

NOW they decide to cap CMHC and ask for banks to put some skin in the game. I wonder if anyone remembers Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae?

There is a limit to what government run mortgage insurance can cover. Back when houses were all 100K or so and people went in with large down payments, it was possible to insure the newbies.

Now everyone is buying million dollar houses with 100,000 down and 900,000 mortgaged. You just can’t expect a government to insure that.

Not unexpected at all. Just a little tardy.

#10 Benchmark Pricing on 10.23.16 at 6:42 pm

National Bank using Teranet–National Bank Index. They use what amounts to a 3 month moving average.

What is happening now, they will report in the next quarter.

Ross Kay says YVR RE has already dropped by 19.5% end of last week = consistent w/National Bank.

Kay says Benchmark and Teranet will show this in 1Q 2017.

Kay reckons an overall 40% drop now possible. Price drop to date worst in N. American RE history.

Disheartening. A few $100 billion wiped out YVR RE wealth.

bsant

#11 Vancouverless on 10.23.16 at 6:46 pm

Garth, keep up the good moderation. The lack of shitposting makes me happy.

#12 Den on 10.23.16 at 6:47 pm

Is it me or does realtor.ca have way too many listings all of a sudden? I also drove past willowdale in north york and noticed at least 10-15 for sale signs in 1 block.

Is there a way to find out if my observation is right?

#13 the Jaguar on 10.23.16 at 6:49 pm

The Banks have always had a little ‘skin in the game’ where insured mortgages are concerned. Anybody remember MICC back in the early 1980’s when the last oil boom bust in Alberta? And if there is any error or oversight in the underwriting process the insurer will jump all over it like white on rice, sometimes refusing to pay the claim. And the poor old bank still has to market, insure, and try to sell the property before the insurer coughs up any shortfall. There are legends about miffed homeowners leaving the property in poor condition (trashed) as they exit. The Banks are only a player in the housing game. Responsibility for the present housing situation needs to be shared equally, and it starts with the buyer. I imagine there is not a dry eye in the house as I end this defense ….

#14 millenial905er on 10.23.16 at 6:51 pm

Polls R Phake – I despise Clinton… and am terrified of her as president. But let’s be real here. You really think he wrote or memorized that speech? If you do, you know nothing about politics. You know what those pieces of glass on stands are at 1:05… right?

Let’s call a spade a spade. They’re both terrible candidates. It’s time to check out of this system and move to South America.

#15 Suede on 10.23.16 at 6:52 pm

Another chapter in the book of herdonomics…

Governments seem to always make the absolute wrong move at the absolute most critical time.

Months ago I posted the link of Singapore, their government foreign ownership tax and the decline.

Now theres taxes, mortgage restrictions, lending risk aversion.

Crazy.

We just bought a place that was reduced a few times…

Putting a good chunk down and the lenders are asking for all sorts of personal and financial details they have NEVER asked for.

Funny when you’re on the hook for something you become much more responsible.

Lits of listings in YVR that are lingering on the market. More people should’ve taken my low ball offers. Oh well.

Someone has to be left holding the bag and interviewed on the local news for a sob story in 6 months.

#16 For those about to flop... on 10.23.16 at 6:56 pm

I don’t think there is any chance of anyone having electile dysfunction around election time.

This election is keeping people up at night…

M42BC

#17 Lindsay Smith on 10.23.16 at 6:57 pm

There is no housing bubble in Canada. If one cannot afford to buy a home in world class cities like Toronto and Vancouver, the misogynistic country called the USA include cheaper cities like Miami, Florida & Tuscon, Arizona, USA.

Or maybe one should invest in Montreal where the French do not respect our Canadian heritage.

Canada ranked particularly well in the citizenship, entrepreneurship, and open for business categories.

Canada will remain a global superpower. If Donald Trump becomes the Prime Minister of the USA, his cocky attitude & disrespect against women will force investors to go north to invest in a country which respects the rights of women and girls.

Like Mark said before in his post, the Canadian dollar will appreciate in value.

The United States is not a good country to invest because Canada is the best country in the world. Canada is the best country in the world that over 250,000 overseas applicants apply for immigrant status in Canada.

I am confident that the Canadian dollar will be valued above par to the USD before 2018. You just wait and see.

Canada is better than the USA and the Americans know it. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party respect the rights of women and girls while Americans have a misogynist woman abuser running for Prime Minister.

#18 A Sad Vindicated? on 10.23.16 at 6:59 pm

Posted listings and estimating in Sept YVR RE list price drops anywhere from 10% to 25% and not hard to estimate.

The above drops are pre-Wild Bill measures.

Felling vindicated with Ross Kay [now] and Natonal Bank estimates of a 20% drop.

Sad as this will be a massive loss in RE asset wealth for the people of YVR from which it will take 10 years to recover.

Sadder yet as Garth repeatedly says most people have a single asset strategy – RE.

bsant

#19 bigtowne on 10.23.16 at 7:04 pm

Of course, the contest for the next President of America is great for ratings on CNN and all the MSM in the U.S. and Canada. However, up here in the land of the Moose and the Squirrel and the Raccoon we are set in our most politically correct and carbon tax ways and nothing is subject to change.

America is our shining example of the success of democracy and diversity but the main difference is America believes in their future and economy whereas in Canada we pay consultants to shape and spin our image and rhetoric to parallel whatever the zeitgeist heralds as not up for debate and written in stone.

#20 not 1st on 10.23.16 at 7:09 pm

Canada has only one driver of GDP left (rightly or wrongly) and T2 is about to torpedo that.

Can anyone say prolonged recession?

#21 TurnerNation on 10.23.16 at 7:14 pm

Life in Kanada: at your local grocery or drug store – owned by a billionaire family: Pattison, Weston or Sobey – the clerk making a min wage insufficent even for basic shelter in any city must ask for your donation to charity – to a pet project of said elites. Ya right.

Solution? STARVE THE BEAST. Find local bakers, butchers and support their shops. A often as possible.

Sure thing. That will help people keep their jobs. — Garth

#22 not 1st on 10.23.16 at 7:14 pm

My parents who lived through T1 said we can expect the debt and deficit to run out of control on pet projects by the liberals and then only a hard period of austerity to clean it up again.

Almost miss Chretien and Martin now that T2 is at the helm.

#23 BobC on 10.23.16 at 7:15 pm

#1 Polls
Have you EVER heard President Obama say he loves America? Hillary? Heck, any of our democrat politicians? America is tired. Just tired of keeping quiet.

#24 S.Bby on 10.23.16 at 7:20 pm

Prices in my area (South Burnaby – Deer Lake) are already down 20% from just six months ago. Houses that were selling for $1.9 million+ in the spring season with multiple offers are now slowly selling (if selling at all) after weeks on the market for $1.4 to $1.5 million. This is a financial disaster for anyone who has bought in the last two years, as prices are now back to levels not seen since mid 2014. Higher end properties (over $2 million) are not selling at all. Meanwhile, unsold inventory is increasing at an accelerating pace.

#25 Muttley O'Toole on 10.23.16 at 7:21 pm

“Even the dull and ignorant
They too have their story”
Desiderata – remember Ted, within the dross there well maybe a small nugget of gold.

#26 TurnerNation on 10.23.16 at 7:23 pm

Context, almost across from the Rex you’ll find a newer 2nd, 3rd floor members club. A gem of a lodge with one door to knock.
No liquor licence, do what you want and party all night. Last call only your BYOB runs out. Been there a number of times for members/friends parties.

#27 Bank of Millenial on 10.23.16 at 7:26 pm

My comments will not go gentle into that good night. They will rage, rage against the dying of the light.

#28 Wait There on 10.23.16 at 7:28 pm

Going north on Bayview this Saturday, every single block between 16th and Elgin Mills was littered with Open House Signs. I don’t recall seeing this level of Open House activity in over a decade.
Some are certainly not waiting for the Spring. Two months ago and through the summer…literally nothing.
Something is happening for sure.

#29 acdel on 10.23.16 at 7:30 pm

I hope Bandit runs for the next federal election!

#30 TurnerNation on 10.23.16 at 7:32 pm

I found some job creators…and well-rested carcasses?

(Everyone in here is skilled in butchery, and hopefully paid more for it.
Located steps from the Scion’s groceteria – where self-service checkout machines – I refuse to use them and pay full price – have a life of their own.)

http://www.thehealthybutcher.com/about_us.html

“Do you remember the days when you could walk into your local butcher shop to buy fresh meat grown locally by a farmer who cared about his animals? When the cows would graze in large pastures? When the chickens had access to both indoors & outdoors and had time to sleep?”

#31 Nero on 10.23.16 at 7:38 pm

Hehhe…sorry,….
Better get out there and buy before those rates go up!
(sarc off)

Pass me my fiddle…

#32 Warren - the lagging indicator on 10.23.16 at 7:39 pm

Hey Garth, Just really read that Ryan Lewenza guy’s blog post and he sounds very professional, balanced and well-reasoned. Smarter than you maybe. I think you made a wise decision hiring him. Hope you are not paying too much though. It was really funny the other day when someone valued your opinions on the same level as Mark and Smoking Man and Freedom First. I laughed and laughed really hard at that one. Like really, Smoking Man is so obviously on a higher level than the rest. That poster could not have really been serious.

#33 Hawk on 10.23.16 at 7:39 pm

I disagree about the Donald being one of the two most flawed candidates ever for the presidency.

Large swathes of the people have long abandoned the media driven “worldview” that the presidency, should be held more by a person they must “look up to” rather than a person focussed on “the issues they care about”.

And if it were about “good character”, my guy, Ron Paul, would have clinched it in a heartbeat the last time around.

Not even Donald Trump’s strongest supporter Ann Coulter, is pushing for his because of his character, but because of his issues.

Even if he loses this election, long after he’s gone, what he has raised and brought to the fore front, will linger in the minds of millions of angry and sullen people, and will remain a sore dividing point for America.

The Pandora’s box has been opened………PERIOD!

#34 broader mind on 10.23.16 at 7:42 pm

C’mon ” Code Red” Are we making up a new language. We can handle the truth.

#35 millenial905er on 10.23.16 at 7:46 pm

#15 Lindsay Smith – “while Americans have a misogynist woman abuser running for Prime Minister.”

I can’t tell whether you’re trolling us, if you’re fresh out of school or just very sheltered.

#36 For those about to flop... on 10.23.16 at 7:48 pm

#2 common sense on 10.23.16 at 6:15 pm
Dorothy for Woman of the decade…

///////////////////////////

There will probably be a poll at the end of this decade that will go something like this.

Who was Canada’s Woman of the Decade?

a) Christy Clark

b) Rachel Notley

c) Kathleen Wynne

or

d) Sophie Gregoire Trudeau

I will protest vote…

e) Dorothy Turner

I will nominate Mrs Flop as the runner up so I don’t get roughed up.

A 250lb man is no match for a 135lb crazy Fijian chic…

M42BC

#37 AR on 10.23.16 at 8:03 pm

99% vs 1%
globalism vs nationalism
Democracy vs elitism
Accommodation vs war
Workers vs corporation

Clinton for everything in the left of this list, trump for everything on the right. Not so different from other elections. Except for the orange haired buffoon.

#38 Dave on 10.23.16 at 8:07 pm

Re #12
Or maybe one should invest in Montreal where the French do not respect our Canadian heritage.”

Maybe you should move to America and vote for Trump

#39 Genworth bought out.... on 10.23.16 at 8:08 pm

By Chinese money…. Interesting

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3215824-china-oceanwide-buying-genworth-financial-2_7b

#40 Mark M. on 10.23.16 at 8:14 pm

I have an idea, why don’t we just let the free market set interest rates and get government out of the mortgage insurance business?

I know crazy right? Much better to have governments and central banks create problems then attempt to solve them.

After all, central bankers are “really smart people.” If they think interest rates should be at historic lows for nearly a decade who are we to disagree?

#41 Linda on 10.23.16 at 8:17 pm

I’ve heard that ‘shadow’ lenders are bemoaning the proposed new rules, in that it will essentially make their business unviable. Which is just as well. I can appreciate these folks are just trying to make a living, but given the grim example of the USA where you could get a mortgage if you had a pulse (& possibly even if you didn’t have one) the last thing Canadians need is our own shadow loan system.

It is obvious that despite the risks Canadians are more than willing to indenture themselves well beyond their ability to pay. Despite the inevitable shrieks of not needing or requiring ‘the government’ to intervene, just as well they are. For instance, if it were not for mandatory CPP most Canadians would have neither pension or savings as they enter their 60’s. Given that most have no savings & no other pension other than CPP/OAS, just imagine how dire the situation would be if joining CPP had been optional.

#42 will on 10.23.16 at 8:21 pm

I’m thinking about buying a put on the S&P 500.

#43 Brian Ripley on 10.23.16 at 8:26 pm

`and whether or not we have a rabid protectionist and free trade-ripper in the White House.` Garth

Trade is negative in Canada (7 years of ZIRP has not changed the trend of this metric) and foreign direct investment has been chronically negative for the last 19 years straight with a spiking `widener`in 2015 data.

Chart http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

So I`m not sure how Mr Trudeau will get an infrastructure bank off the ground with long term BoC rates hovering around 2%. If rates rise, then it becomes more attractive.

#44 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.23.16 at 8:27 pm

It is high time to teach Bankers how to make business loans again.

This will stimulate employment. Raise the standard of living, and enable us to shed our pretend economy.

We could make it a national goal to bring back entire factories but highly automated.

This will be the next trend in the USA. Businesses realize that you can automate to an unprecedented level now.

We dont need to deal the importation and trade deficit headaches if we dont want them.

https://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2015/07/17/robot-density-top-10-countries-with-the-highest-number-of-industrial-robots-for-every-10000-people-employed-in-manufacturing/663/

We simply have to make it a national priority to automate.
Not DEBTONATE!

#45 GreaterFool D. on 10.23.16 at 8:34 pm

Is it a public sentiment or private lenders are getting spooked? Or maybe both. I see MLS (GTA) pictures that suggest people are getting out in rush (empty homes, houses under construction, ripped out “fixtures”. Still advertised as an “opportunity” for the buyer at zillion to get in to TO. Anecdotal.

#46 Bailing out in Brampton before it's too late on 10.23.16 at 8:40 pm

Its already starting as “investors” are trying to get out before they lose it all. Three months ago gambler investors bought this https://m.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=17513396 for 520k which btw they overpaid like greaterfools . Now they what the F out as they rented it out cash flow negative and with new rules prices will fall hard! The crash is now underway.

#47 RUSSELL on 10.23.16 at 8:41 pm

“SOMEBODY’S GOING TO GET A HURT REAL BAD!!!”

#48 Bailing out in Brampton before it's too late on 10.23.16 at 8:41 pm

Btw the place is a dump.

#49 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.23.16 at 8:46 pm

http://shanghaiist.com/2016/01/21/amcham_survey_business_leaving_china.php

I have never believed that opening business in a China Joint venture is a viable idea.

Really all the Chinese are really interested in is getting your business secrets then copying it and losing you.

I remember meeting a Steel factory businessman on the plane to Shanghai.about 6 years ago.
He related that a steel company wanted to get the same efficiency of the Canadian company.
The Canadian company had many secrets from a lifetime of steel manufacturing.

They attended many meetings and in the end determined that all they Chinese wanted was the information on how to do it and they were constantly pumping for Info right down to size of bolts used.

Finally the company pulled the plug on negotiations and built their own plant in China.

Just visualize some overweight soft touch Canadian businessman with solid morals and values walking into the lions den!

Good luck keeping secrets now!

Knowing the culture you just cant win. Few Western businesses make any money in China. Most go home with their tail between their legs.

Now Boeing has enabled enough airplane technology to reach China through contracts that they are now building a competing jet with the Russians!

#50 stage1dave on 10.23.16 at 8:46 pm

I’m thinkin’ “free trade ripper-upper” might’ve sounded hipper…but I’ve been inhaling acrylic paint all day; whilst attempting to eke out a meager living…TG this proposal is done.

I’m also thinkin’ the “live” comment feed on American election eve on da blog will be considerably more stimulating than the actual event, Wikileaks notwithstanding.

#51 Context on 10.23.16 at 8:48 pm

#26 TurnerNation: There was this establishment on King Street West were they looked through a peek hole for a secure entrance as was with a known person. Inside was a casino, a dance floor, a bar, music, and lots of women so have done it all in my youth.

#52 Bram on 10.23.16 at 8:49 pm

You could regret that open channel with no moderation.

When I watch the debates on youtube, the comments on that feed are pounded by the absolute lowest sludge of the human race. It is just a fast scrolling list of people shouting obscenities.

There should be an IQ test that you need to pass before your comment is published.

#53 Doug t on 10.23.16 at 8:49 pm

Next – lower dollar
Next – debt will destroy many
Next – zero growth
Next – more wars
Next – people continue to drink the koolaid and believe the sh*t from mainstream media and politicians

RATM

#54 RE to drop HARD! on 10.23.16 at 8:57 pm

SimplyPut7 on 10.23.16 at 6:30 pm
I doubt Toronto will be spared, the number of listings that have appeared in the Greater Toronto Area over the last 2 weeks and in price ranges I haven’t seen in over 2 years have been quite large. The house down the street from me dropped their price twice, down $90k over the past 2.5 weeks. I have never seen this many open houses and empty and/or staged homes listed on the market in October.
—————————————————————–
RE in Toronto is going to drop HARD!. RE is a Ponzi scheme that needs many new suckers and rising prices. Take away either two and price revert back to it’s mean average. Vested interests will do what they always do “LIE” like the scum they are. Mortgage brokers already crying at thought of having to operate in the open and free markets. They know RE is a Ponzi scheme based on cheap and easy credit. Take away those two = PRICES TO DROP HARD!

#55 Figmund Sreud on 10.23.16 at 8:57 pm

Never before have two more deeply flawed people sought the world’s most important job.
____________________________

Don’t say! Fred agrees, … and more! Entertaining read:

Ronald McDonald or Lucretia Borgia?
http://www.unz.com/freed/ronald-mcdonald-or-lucretia-borgia/

F.S. – Comox, BC

#56 NoName on 10.23.16 at 9:02 pm

#42 will on 10.23.16 at 8:21 pm

I’m thinking about buying a put on the S&P 500.

///////

In my opinion, regardles who wins market will become more volatile so that put of yours is an interesting idea. but i have better one, asuming you can buy options on snp500. i just dont know but this is how i would palyed it out.
buy 10 atm calls
buy 20 atm puts

it would be prudent to already have block of snp500 for just in case.

plug
this is just for entartaiment, not financial advice.

#57 Bnnks , brokers and realtors hate the free and open markets on 10.23.16 at 9:03 pm

Mark M. on 10.23.16 at 8:14 pm
I have an idea, why don’t we just let the free market set interest rates and get government out of the mortgage insurance business?

I know crazy right? Much better to have governments and central banks create problems then attempt to solve them.

After all, central bankers are “really smart people.” If they think interest rates should be at historic lows for nearly a decade who are we to disagree?
—————————————————————–
Bankers and mortgage brokers as well as realtors hate the free and open markets. They know they are useless eaters that offer zero value in the open and free markets.

#58 Canadian Soldier on 10.23.16 at 9:19 pm

Good evening everyone, I’m a young kid (28) and a personal finance/real estate novice. But I have thought our system was weird for years. All my buddies making 65k a year living in million dollar government insured houses. In the Canadian military we normally never get out of the insurance, I watch everyone just buy bigger and bigger. What about insuring houses the old way but only up to like 250K? I think that would solve a lot of the same problems with less consequences to people like me trying to figure out how to buy a house lol. Anyway maybe I’m way off….thank you so much Mr. Turner!! And thank you to all the random intelligent people that post here. I learn more from this blog then any other education tool in my life! You guys rock and I’m spreading the word through the army lol. (Oh and I’m in chilliwack btw, newly exploding prices in the last year….should be interesting to watch)

#59 Pat Jones on 10.23.16 at 9:22 pm

I want to thank you for being one of the sane voices during the last few years. I read your blog. To hell with the comment section. Don’t let the comments stop you from giving the real story. If it was up to me, I would not allow any comments. Just write your blog, spend time with the wife and the dog. To hell with the rest!!!

#60 the Spectre on 10.23.16 at 9:28 pm

Never before have two more deeply flawed people sought the world’s most important job.

You mean, after Yellen?

At least you’re convinced that Hellary’s no better than Mr. T!

Fun times ahead.

#61 Sidelines Watching on 10.23.16 at 9:29 pm

Any thoughts on Kelowna area home pricing?
We would love to throw down an anchor but I’m hearing such conflicting info about this market.
I’m guessing prices stay flat for like a year and start creeping up again.
Thoughts ?

#62 yyz2yvr on 10.23.16 at 9:31 pm

#15 Lindsay Smith

are you serious? I really think you should walk outside a little more often. Grab a newspaper while your out there

#63 GreaterFool D. on 10.23.16 at 9:34 pm

@#41
I’ve heard that ‘shadow’ lenders are bemoaning the proposed new rules, in that it will essentially make their business unviable.

They bemoaning, because if house value drops, their 2nd mortgages will be wiped out first. Never mind nonviable, which suggests future earnings.

#64 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.23.16 at 9:34 pm

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is the same as the last guy.

It’s been a year since he came to power and we’re still selling arms to Saudi Arabia, we’re still cutting $36bn from healthcare, and we’re still running over indigenous rights in favour of oil.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/09/27/liberals-to-decide-on-lng-plant-in-bc-seen-as-a-litmus-test-for-trudeau.html

It’s all the same. Our deficit is bigger, our current account balance is worse and your overall deficits are worse.

I don’t see any difference.

#65 GreaterFool D. on 10.23.16 at 9:43 pm

@#53
Next – public unrest

#66 Lee bow on 10.23.16 at 9:47 pm

Dear Garth, how do you like our own west niagara conservative nomination?

#67 the other white meat (pork) on 10.23.16 at 9:57 pm

Nobody can accurately predict what will happen in Vancouver because markets have been fueled by low rates but driven by sentiment. As we all know, once sentiment turns negative, you can’t give unloved assets away. Govenments have no idea (supposedly) how many foreigners, speculators, or foreign speculators are involved in the Vancouver market so good luck with an accurate prediction.

My hope is that they withdraw tax payer support from this house of cards over the next couple of years.

#68 Happening now on 10.23.16 at 9:58 pm

Lived in Yaletown for past 2 yrs…..crazy amount of open houses today, even girlfriend who doesn’t really pay that much attention to it all was surprised.
Went into 3…..not busy at all….Realtors all saying position things etc etc…..let’s see ???

#69 Smoking Man on 10.23.16 at 10:00 pm

#2 common sense on 10.23.16 at 6:15 pm
Dorothy for Woman of the decade…
….

I second that, I met her at the store. Very lovely lady.
……
Why do I oun a home, we’re at Seneca 4 nights a week, it’s getting rediculos. I’m here for election Intel and unlimited free booze without the scrutiny of my judgemental kids.

They fear we are draining there inheritance, even had the talk about it.

They will be well taken care of huge. But they must leave this shit run country to collect. It’s in the will at my lawyers.

Under no circumstances can they bring it here and have one cent taxed to criminal lefties. They even try, it goes to charity.

#70 Where is Boom? on 10.23.16 at 10:06 pm

Anyone?

#71 Kuato Lives on 10.23.16 at 10:10 pm

Strange, but since the mortgage rules have changed, according to CREB stats (Calgary), we’ve now had 2 days where sales have outpaced listings (the first time in like 15 months), but the prices have started to ‘unstick’ downwards. Prices now down 4% for the month.

#72 Smoking Man on 10.23.16 at 10:11 pm

Halloween, kids fun. No more.

Just reading some crap about Halloween. Apparently cowboy outfits are extremely offensive.
As well as Indian feathers.

The west is collectively losing its mind on this PC shit.

Another plus in Trump.

I’m going to the Seneca Halloween bash with a Trump mask, I’ll realy gage the herd then. I will also wear a jock strap with an oversize cup. Just in case I run into radical lesbians. No one hates Trump more than them.

#73 The Wet Coast on 10.23.16 at 10:11 pm

Tesla on Wednesday announced plans to install hardware that will allow all of its cars to become driverless.

Not next week or next year, or the year after that. But it’s coming. How many truck drivers will be needed in 20 years?

I was at the McDonalds in Castlegar and there were touch screens rather than Cashiers.

What is coming is automation on a staggering scale. Technology has typically created more jobs than it destroyed. That appears to be changing.

Government won’t be ready, it never is. The luddites will want to go back; which is impossible as something can’t be uninvented.

Where this goes? I dunno maybe we’ll travel the star systems. In reality the potential for social unrest is huge and will dwarf what we see now.

#74 Tony on 10.23.16 at 10:47 pm

They’ll be plenty of supply in Toronto and the GTA when prices really start to fall. Like every second house on every street will have a for sale sign. Then in a year or two several thousand will have under the power of sale signs on their lawn.

#75 tony on 10.23.16 at 10:50 pm

The Wet Coast #73

The term is called technological unemployment. You are right automation is coming on a staggering scale with AI not to far behind. Truck driver , taxi drivers , bus driver , driverless trains(already here in some part of the world). It’s a little scary what is coming. This is going to be implemented on a huge scale in 5-7 years or maybe less.

#76 WUL on 10.23.16 at 10:53 pm

The blog dog commenter that signs out “bsant” made a comment within the last month that made me pause. He opined that Calgary real estate had bottomed out and had nowhere to go but up.

Motivated by enlightened self interest (aka greed) as a single family detached owner in the Stampede City, I follow only that segment of the market.

Sept and Oct YOY sales up markedly. New and active listings down. Prices holding. Highest weekly earnings in Canada. A small dose of optimism is warranted.

Precision Drilling recalled 1000 roughnecks. The articles were not clear but I suspect that most were stateside with the frackers down south.

Yeehah. Nine months until the Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth.

#77 Context on 10.23.16 at 10:56 pm

#69 Smoking Man: – Your Last Will and Testament will never hold up in a Court of Law so better get a new Lawyer. The Charter of Rights and Freedoms will negate your request in a NY minute in favour of your heirs.

#78 Doug t on 10.23.16 at 10:57 pm

Next – PLEASE let’s get rid of the sh*t that is the CBC

RATM

#79 Walter on 10.23.16 at 10:58 pm

There is something here I am not seeing discussed that concerns me a great deal. I am wondering if anyone can tell me the effect on the home equity loan market.
I believe this has the potential to initiate a credit crunch close to the scale of the American experience of 2007 – 2012.
I am not knowledgeable on the rules regarding these loans but we can all agree it has been a favorite method of acquiring credit by the average Canadian home owner being the lowest cost loan.
With all these projections about housing prices and the agreement that they will be significantly lower that could mean a lot of these home equity loans will no longer have the full home equity backing them by legal percentages.
I think we should be including this as part of any discussion and perhaps give it the attention it deserves.
One question as an example would be if the outstanding principal of a home equity loan is added to the mortgage remaining principal total upon renewal.
One other question is if these are call loans where the banks would call in the outstanding portion not backed by the home value anymore at renewal.
I don’t believe the feds considered this in detail when initiating these changes.

#80 traderJim on 10.23.16 at 11:00 pm

It seems to me that the changes Garth talks about will eventually have a much bigger effect than the pols realize.

The banks and subprime lenders squawking makes me think a nerve was hit. Still too early to tell, but I am thinking that once confidence starts to wane….look out.

I sold a property this year and was shocked at the price and the bidding war it generated. Right now I am feeling preeeeety good about having unloaded that one.

Problem is, I still have 2 others (one down south) and it’s a bit more than I should have in RE really.

I just started a reno on my place here, so I can’t sell until late next year at the earliest.

I suspect I won’t be making much on this one. Might be lucky to break even after fees. Might end up holding it for 10 years, lol. Can’t win them all.

Taxpayers should never have been on the hook in the first place, but waiting until the bubble is just about to burst to take the first steps to fix the problem is typical bad timing, but better later than never.

Someone mentioned Paul Martin: fantastic Finance Minister if you ask me. PET and JC I couldn’t stand.

@fartz: I must apologize for triggering you. I hope you have found a safe space.

#81 conan on 10.23.16 at 11:08 pm

RE #1 Polls R Phake on 10.23.16 at 6:11 pm

Well that is 42 minutes that I will never get back.

He is pro coal……….meh times a million. He says nothing and offers no solutions.

He is playing a reality TV character and it is working on the neuron transmission-less peeps.

Ben Affleck, as well as others like him, are taking notes on what not to do.

#82 Original dave on 10.23.16 at 11:16 pm

Here’s why the comment section is great:

3 different commenters have stated they’ve seen an unusual spike in listings in areas of the GTA. Where else would you get that? Boots on the ground early analysis is great

#83 Rexx Rock on 10.23.16 at 11:17 pm

What happen when there will be robots for realtors and mortgage brokers?Only time will tell.I said Canada will go down and people will suffer big time.
Heading down to Mexico in a week for the winter.Maybe watch WWW 3 on my big screen when Clintin wins.

#84 Berniebee on 10.23.16 at 11:17 pm

#1 “I would ask anyone who does not like Trump to watch this speech.”

He’s promising $100 t-shirts for every American.

That’s what they will cost when he puts tariffs on American companies that move production offshore. Unless you think Americans are going to work for $2/hour making t-shirts in New Jersey.

#85 For those about to flop... on 10.23.16 at 11:18 pm

Where is Boom? on 10.23.16 at 10:06 pm
Anyone?

////////////////////////////

I’ve got a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach that something bad happened to my blog buddy Boom,I hope I am wrong and these feelings are unfounded.

Whenever he went away on vacation he always announced it as a way to Segway to give a report from wherever he was.

I tried to see what he was up to on here a couple of times since and people joked that we were so friendly to each other we should talk off blog ,now I wish I had got his details to see if he is alright.

Here’s what I know… he is 64 and had a few buddies pass away recently, I hope he hasn’t suffered the same fate.
He seemed to be starting the on-set of Alzheimers ,repeated the same thing a lot gave regular updates on a patio door instillation which people gave him crap for but I tried to turn it into a joke by asking his wife on the blog to unlock the patio door and let him back on the blog.

He taught me many little lessons and I regarded him as a positive influence on myself.
I used to throw him a bone by starting a lot of my posts with ” Hey Boom…” because I appreciated his man on the street reports and although a Canadian centred blog it is good to get some outside opinions.

Garth writes his posts for his educated readers, what Boom had a great knack of doing was breaking them down a little bit father so bums like myself can understand more details.

I did want to give him shit, since I found out that Wisconsin buys more crap from China than Canada though…

M42BC
M64WI

#foroldtimessake

#86 Braj on 10.23.16 at 11:21 pm

#17 Lindsay Smith on 10.23.16 at 6:57 pm
There is no housing bubble in Canada. If one cannot afford to buy a home in world class cities like Toronto and Vancouver, the misogynistic country called the USA include cheaper cities like Miami, Florida & Tuscon, Arizona, USA.

Or maybe one should invest in Montreal where the French do not respect our Canadian heritage.

Canada ranked particularly well in the citizenship, entrepreneurship, and open for business categories.

Canada will remain a global superpower. If Donald Trump becomes the Prime Minister of the USA, his cocky attitude & disrespect against women will force investors to go north to invest in a country which respects the rights of women and girls.

Like Mark said before in his post, the Canadian dollar will appreciate in value.

The United States is not a good country to invest because Canada is the best country in the world. Canada is the best country in the world that over 250,000 overseas applicants apply for immigrant status in Canada.

I am confident that the Canadian dollar will be valued above par to the USD before 2018. You just wait and see.

Canada is better than the USA and the Americans know it. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party respect the rights of women and girls while Americans have a misogynist woman abuser running for Prime Minister.

—-

Canada a global superpower? Choose your world’s carefully there.

Other than that I fail to see any sort of coherent argument or point of your post other than stating Trump is a misogynist, which I can definitely see why you say that.

#87 I don't know! on 10.23.16 at 11:31 pm

In today’s “politically correct” obsessed world, you’re labeled a racist if you use the term “illegal immigrant” vs “undocumented immigrant”.

#88 Richie rocking Old Guy on 10.23.16 at 11:47 pm

It’s October end and investment season is here. Maple has turned into the best performing market on the planet. I’ve seen a 34 % return on my stock picks this year. I raised cash to 30% in November and in spite of that the expected pull backs of May or summer did not materialize and the entire group made gains.

Funny that the theme in government is to drive Canada further into a Main Street recession while the stock market powers ahead. The Nation Post reports that Moroneaus top advisor wants Mcallim to double immigration while the Vancouver Sun reports that young families are so stressed they can’t afford to have children. Is this Trudeau’s Gambit to demoralize and fracture the increasingly impoverished voters into submission?

I won’t state cause I know Garth hates stock pickers but guys and gals, there are some of us who are raking it in and not listening to the naysayers and balanced dooms yer and financial ostriches.

#89 jay on 10.24.16 at 12:04 am

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/economic-advisers-want-100m-canadians-by-2100-1.3127751 Gee, I wonder what this will do to real estate prices. Trudeau is more Big Business than Harper.

#90 Context on 10.24.16 at 12:04 am

#72 Smoking Man: Do you want a mask that will clear the room? Just dress up like a Mexican on vacation and wear an El Chapo mask.

#91 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.24.16 at 12:15 am

DELETED

#92 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.24.16 at 12:21 am

#53 Doug t on 10.23.16 at 8:49 pm
Next – lower dollar

are you SURE???

remember when the CAD$ was 85 cents??

Asset manager (aka “smart money”) is turning extremely bullish on the CAD$. These are the people who actually use currency, not a bunch of grown men playing speculator games on their computers.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/canadian-dollar-its-ups-downs-1442859/2/#p18323472

that’s 4 years of “smart money” baby!

#93 Smoking Man on 10.24.16 at 12:22 am

DELETED

#94 Breadward on 10.24.16 at 12:42 am

#61 Sidelines Watching

Sidelines, I’d be in no rush to jump in there, or anywhere in BC right now. I think as things start to submarine in YVR due to all the changes and new rules, Kelowna will go cold as money won’t be pouring out of Vancity anymore. I know many people who cashed out of Van and went to Kelowna.

That said a friend is a home designer there and has never been busier than this year. I think there is just a lag and Kelowna like other BC towns like Victoria etc will falter once the taps turn off as money leaving Vancouver fuels those markets.

#95 fishman on 10.24.16 at 12:44 am

Here’s a deal just come over the wire for our coffee clutch sub primers club. 3.2 mil. assessed value west side Van tear down.. Client has 1.2 mil.on a 1st. & looking for 800,000 @ 8% on a 2nd for 1 year. He got caught in a new build & needs the 800 k to finish. Lender takes $64,000 +fees($12,000): gives client $724,000 up front & gets $800,000 payback in a year. Easy money?
Lets look at the cons.
First, the only exit plan for this guy is asset selling.
Second, assessment high, more like 2.7-3.0 mil now.
Third, some of us have sold stuff here on the west side, but nobody hit the top, We’ve left anywhere from $400,00 to a mil. on the table by being too early. That means if things go south, we end up with this toilet, which we thought we got out of more than a year ago because of this very scenario. Duh!
Fourth, Smart guys can legally play the system & get 11 months rent free living. If you can slide in matrimonial discord, homeless kids & a liberal judge one could conceivably squeeze 2 years before taking possession. Tough on the head battling in court to get clear title while your equity goes negative & keeps dropping.
Fifth, I know my fellow blog dogs will have an outpouring of sympathy/&/or gratitude that we’re paying $30,000 of the $64,000 to Lil potato head & Crusty Christy. Still, we only got a decade,two at most left. Burn through the principle & damn the kids an easy no stress option?

We’re the littlest guys, bottom of the pile of bottom feeders of the sub primers & folding our cards,collecting the cash as the notes come due & not putting anything back out unless there’s coverage through cash flow. Cash flow is king & thats why commercial property here in Van is still red hot. Ham still buying as low as 1% cap rate.

Ya, there will be pain out here. Me & my buds been through the crucible of Feb.81 to 83/84 We were kids, wannabe millionaires, when the Big 5 in one week pulled 140,000 demand notes. 140,000 small businesses crushed. 18% rate pile on.We stood helplessly in an eastern courtroom as the judge sold Jimmy P Canadian Fish for 11.2 mil which had been assessed in 79 for 175 million). Well we did protest; judges parting words “thats the way we do business back here” We went back to collecting pogey, working under the table, & doing a few favours for “friends”. We got tempered, even hardened. Ground our way back up to “millionaire” the old fashioned way. Kinda of looking forward to some hard times except that I’m old enough to be afraid of what I wish for coming true. Not that far from being on top of the economic crap pile to watching gangs of feral young men prowling outside the bunker window.

#96 Smoking Man on 10.24.16 at 12:51 am

To a crashed Nictonite pilot Sr Sid. Love you man.

https://youtu.be/R0sw2CgysWY

#97 Smoking Man on 10.24.16 at 1:06 am

DELETED

#98 Joe2.0 on 10.24.16 at 1:08 am

Trumps racist?
Because he wants people to enter the states legally?
Did you know it’s harder to become a citizen of Mexico then the USA?
I’ve done it.
It’s expensive with many hoops to jump through.
If they catch you in Mexico illegally there’s a good chance your going to jail, if bribery doesn’t work.
And that’s very bad news.
MSM…the propaganda mind toilet.

#99 Smoking Man on 10.24.16 at 1:10 am

To my teachers.

One got away. Fail on your part.

https://youtu.be/YR5ApYxkU-U

#100 Bobs ur uncle on 10.24.16 at 1:28 am

#85 flop

I sincerely hope you’re wrong. Boomer was one of the better level-headed commenters here. Hopefully he’s just taking a short break from steerage to clear his head and enjoy the finer things in life. I wish him health and happiness for many years to come.

#101 Smoking Man on 10.24.16 at 1:58 am

Again.

https://youtu.be/dEL5F_ulqbs

#102 Metaxa on 10.24.16 at 2:15 am

Counting the days til this comment section goes live!
Fun, fun, fun til Daddy takes the T Bird away.

Anyway, Sunday story time:

I’ve been sharing some non-investment stuff…all about how to supplement an income effectively. While hopefully being able to still earn the career income. Get ahead.

Thing is don’t try and swing for the fences, very few can do that. So multiple, repeatable small deals.

So today’s story…
You couldn’t do this in the big city but a commuter town, a town of 20,000 and up will have a couple of vets.

Years ago I along with a couple of partners were interested in a piece of property. Thing is it was behind a functioning vet office and it turns out the vet owned it and it wasn’t for sale as a stand alone.

But during our conversations it turned out that this vet was retiring soon and like lots of folks with their homes was planning on the sale of business, both properties and building to finalize his retirement.

Long story short and leaving out details due to space we ended up buying the entire package. I left the raw land to my former partners and did the vet building/office, the land it was on and the goodwill and equipment myself.

Turns out a functioning, moderately busy vet office is a pretty good investment. ROI was there for sure.

I did some landscaping, freshened reception, added and upgraded equipment and a couple of years later “sold” the practice to two of the salaried vets. I’m lucky in that I hold the paper on this but its also lucky for them as I’m not into squeezing anyone…its income for the remainder of my life, the purchasers are doing well and it employs about double the folks it used to so there is that.

At the time it wasn’t much more than a higher end house would be…so the point is don’t narrow your thoughts. Think outside our normal patterns, maybe there is a near self running due to long term employees business available in your area?

Oh, and the reason I separated from the other two on the raw land? I had to catch a ride with one of them and the inside of his vehicle was a cross between a garbage dump and ashtray. Won’t do business with someone who lives like that.

#103 Smoking Man on 10.24.16 at 2:19 am

Song I sung to Mr happy. Loser, he likes smokes and booze more that me.
I

https://youtu.be/x7bIbVlIqEc

#104 M on 10.24.16 at 2:35 am

Gartho baby,
Rates will remain low mortgage wise (until bond market goes kabooom). However everything else will be gone…i.e. the regular moron making 60-120K will be hands off housing wise. Only a moron feels entitled to more than 21/2 income house. Only a moronic gov and its private federal bank prints money out of thin air. Only a moronic financial/business establishment borrow money to buy their own stock. This means that the number of working morons in the big white north land is way over 75%.
In 88-89 Tor downtown lost 50+% of the value.
These are great times to make a quick honest buck. In the end mass stupidity is the most lucrative market.
We are on the precipice of tremendous opportunity.

#105 'Atta go #76 WUL on 10.24.16 at 3:05 am

Hey, went thru RE crashes in the Cowtown.

If you look at demand/supply oil forecasts, demand will begin to outstrip supply in late 2017. My guess is that is when Calgary [AB] will begin to bounce back.

With all the bad news and RE has not crashed any more there, well nothing but up from here on in is my take. Of course you are there now and know more than I.

Hope you are correct. Canada and AB could use some good economic news.

bsant

#106 Monetary YVR RE Perspective on 10.24.16 at 3:26 am

I am staggered/saddened at the voracity of YVR RE price drops. Attempt to capture this in wealth loss follows.

2011 YVR StatsCan Census Data, Private Households:

301,140 Detached
129,255 Apt. > 5 storey
455,950 Other comprised of Apt 5 storey or less, Townhouse etc.

=886,345 in Total

Ross Kay estimate of Avg. Price Drop since 1Q 2016 Peak to today:

$210K benign compared to National Bank estimate

Multiply total private households by avg. price drop to estimate avg. RE wealth loss in YVR:

$186,132,450,000 – probably more as 2011 Data used

Staggers my mind and this pre-Wild Bill measures.

I remember after T1 Windfall Profits Tax calculations that $20 Billion over and above transfer payments was taken out of AB in a short period of time and that is what led to the early 80s RE collapse then [about $155 billion in today’s dollars, from 1981].

$180 Billion of wealth lost, what does that do to a single asset RE strategy?

No more Bank of Ma & Pa, retirement nest egg damaged for at least 10 years and HELOCs, Boomers working past retirement age…who knows?

At least Millennials will benefit with lower home prices.

Hope oil & gas/commodities bounce back sooner than later to counterbalance and replenish lost weath and T2 stimulates economy to help Canadians out in what will be a time of need.

bsant

#107 Correction: Monetary YVR RE Perspective on 10.24.16 at 3:37 am

$20 billion in 1981 is $50.8 billion today. The 155 was the % increase. Used BoC Inflation Calculator.

My bad. Too many grey hairs and Grappa in my Espresso this AM. For once, something in common with Smoking Man.

Still, $51 Billion vs. $180 Billion…oh my.

bsant

#108 SimplyPut7 on 10.24.16 at 3:50 am

Which politician(s) do we have to contact to force TREB to state how many power of sales they have on their website? I just saw one listing state there is no “for sale” sign on the lawn, but admit the house is a power of sale in the description.

I guess they don’t want to scare the other realtors or sellers that there is a power of sale home in the area, which would force them to be realistic about the sale price they put up online.

When will realtors be forced to be honest, so buyers and sellers can make informed decisions?

#109 juno on 10.24.16 at 3:57 am

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadas-mortgage-brokers-find-ways-around-new-lending-rules

I always love how the banks and media downplay things.

The above link, sure you can borrow from the shadow market.. At a premium rate. Not the silly 2.8 percent rate.

Who are these shadow guys. Humm olden days, The Saprano’s, Hells Angels, and guys which will probably knee cap you if you don’t pay. Mabey even take some of your freakin organs, that’s worth 10 G’s

I think it would be easier to sell your place take your profits and run than deal with the seedy shadow lenders.

#110 wicked as it seems on 10.24.16 at 4:45 am

Im doing my own personal protest that night….Im flying to the tropics, to a place with very little interest in the outside world.

#111 broader mind on 10.24.16 at 6:58 am

Easy fix ahead. Government simply mandates a very large spread on all residential related loans. Bank’s profit and cheap money is only available to industrious pursuits. Two tiered lending system. Voila all problems solved. This is the attempt being played out presently without anyone calling it what it is.

#112 Wait There on 10.24.16 at 8:02 am

In the 80’s I did some research on AI. What was then considered AI is close to being here now.
What is being called AI today is far beyond what AI was thought to be decades ago and the frontiers of where it is headed is not being taken seriously by many academists, the public does not understand the implications as it will be very disruptive to the world. Remember in the 80s we did not factor in network capability and the internet of “things”. Economists and depending on history to foretell the future will be invalid. The income gap will widen, the deplorables will grow in numbers. Politicians are responding to symptoms of scientific creations and are utterly failing, we better find a solution soon. Remember that current AI has the ability to adapt its own thought processes to changing conditions and this ability removes bias and further its ability to better determine the next move. Even financial advisors will be threatened.
What few understand is that the more AI is implemented, the easier it will become to be implement more and the system will function better as a whole. Our current economy depends on human errors. How much labor is involved in fixing things that did not go right today? Look around and you’ll be surprised. Even Stephen Hawking is concerned and his ability to think deeply about a subject is stellar. His hope that it will stop the spread of poverty is unfortunately that…hope. The reality of the corporation as I indicated before will hollow out further the middle class despite failing efforts by the politicians to shore it up.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 8:19 am

@#17 Lindsay Smith

Do the unicorns ride on rainbows on your planet Delusia?

Thanks for the laugh.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 8:24 am

@#27 Wait There
“Something is happening for sure”
*******************************************

Its the “Vancouver Syndrome” where “greed” ( the sellers) meets the stupid (the buyers).

You’re lucky.
With all the changes in mortgage rules and bank rates…it’ll be over soon….unlike the insanity experienced for the last 10 years in the LowerBrainland.

#115 Genworth Buyout on 10.24.16 at 8:25 am

Morning Garth, any comments on this sale of Genworth to a Chinese company??

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-24/genworth-s-lost-decade-ends-in-2-7-billion-china-deal-timeline

#116 Wait There on 10.24.16 at 8:26 am

The deplorables always existed in elections and the further back you go, the numbers were fewer. As we move forward, the numbers will grow…not just in the USA but also in Canada and the EU. Brexit was just the beginning.
World GDP growth has all been a trading of variables so that the net effect is still positive. When each trade gains less and less, as we are seeing today, to the point it results in stagnation, we better be careful because deplorables will start to grow in numbers even in emerging economies.
Even if Trump loses today, there will be another “Trump” because the ranks of the deplorables will swell not shrink. Donald Trump was smart enough to have detected the swelling of the ranks. ( like a businessman, but he tried to execute it himself and that was his mistake…no experience in politicking) If you had a seasoned politician carry his campaign, Hillary would be far far behind. Lose or win, Trump type politicking will be the beginning and not the end.

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 8:29 am

@#53 Dougie T

*******************************************
Doug.
People have been “Raging at the Machine” since Karl Marx.
It didnt work then .
It wont work now because, deep down, we’re all greedy and the machine knows it.

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 8:32 am

@#58 Canadian Soldier

I thought the base in The “Wack” was closed?

#119 Grey Dog on 10.24.16 at 8:40 am

Dorothy is a SAINT to put up with you umpiring the comments section day after day!
I would suggest you treat her to a couple days at a spa so she wouldn’t have to witness the spiralling down of the comments section November 8. I understand though you will NEED HER BY YOUR SIDE that night Garth, the only voice of reason and reality to lead you through this most bizarre election.
For reality check the next day take Bandit on a good long wholesome walk at the Belfountain conservation park.

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 8:44 am

@#75 Tony
“The term is called technological unemployment”
********************************************
Safeway has had self scanning cash registers for over 5 years with an employee standing guard for the glitches. I watched a surly employee with $5000 worth of braces in his mouth that I’m sure either the company or the union( ultimately…the company) paid for…… get snotty with an old lady that wasnt “scanning” right. Embarrassed the shit out of her.
When he was done I said.
“How long before the code monkeys get the glitches in these scanners worked out and your laid off? These machines dont need braces”

yes, Im an asshole in person too. Goes with the territory.

Now that MacDonalds is installing these things to replace minimun wage workers as opposed to overpaid Safeway cashiers( please oh please replace the lazy sloths at the govt liquor stores!).
Thank Bill Gates and Chinese factories that can pump out cheap parts so everyone can enjoy the underemployed “nirvana” that Alvin Toffler so optimistically predicted in The Third Wave almost 40 years ago.

Like the old saying goes.
Its unemployment when it happens to your neighbor or your friend.
Its a disaster when it happens to you.

#121 Gonkman on 10.24.16 at 8:44 am

#17 Lindsay Smith on 10.23.16 at 6:57 pm

__________________________________________

I really hope you just forgot the “/sarcasm” on your post.

That was really funny to read…

Now go ask Hillary why her “Clinton Foundation” takes money from Misoginst Countries which put hold back the rights of women and girls…

Hillary is like the Villan Two-Face.

She has 2…

Good Face – You see on TV saying everything you want to hear and Lying to everyone with a straight face.
Evil Face – Is the one taking money & power from wherever she can get it at any cost behind the scenes.

Can’t wait to watch the show on Nov 8th. I expect hight TV Viewership than the Superbowl or Game of Thrones premier….

#122 Grey Dog on 10.24.16 at 8:44 am

Thank you for call out to Boom! I’m missing his insights too. (I had just thought I had missed his post noting a vacation).

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 8:46 am

@#97 Joe O.2 IQ

Stop while you’re behind Joe. You’re embarrassing yourself.

#124 LL on 10.24.16 at 9:13 am

#17 – Canada is the best country in the world that over 250,000 overseas applicants apply for immigrant status in Canada”….

Why do you think migrants want to come to Canada?
Because our government encourage them to come offering them interesting conditions!

Try to migrate in Australia.. It’s not at all the same game!

#125 VJGoh on 10.24.16 at 9:31 am

Garth, I *think* I already know the answer to this, but you haven’t really made your position on this policy change clear. I think you support it–I certainly do–but you seem a bit unwilling to give any props to the current government for deciding to do it.

I hope this really takes prices down a few notches. I’m planning a move to Vancouver, and while I plan to rent, it’d be nice to see prices pull back a bit in that market.

#126 Bdwy sktn on 10.24.16 at 9:32 am

James Bullard
David Orrell | CNBC
James Bullard
Low interest rates will likely be the norm during the next two to three years, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, said in prepared remarks on Monday.

The U.S. is in a low-productivity growth regime, which is pressuring real safe rates of return, he said.

With real safe rates of return exceptionally low and not expected to rise soon, interest rates should be expected to stay exceptionally low during the forecast horizon, he said.

#127 Threadbare Teddybear on 10.24.16 at 9:42 am

Re #12
Or maybe one should invest in Montreal where the French do not respect our Canadian heritage.”

Hmmm, I am not French #12, but you really should read Canadian history on the French contribution to the early exploration and settlement of this land by Europeans. do you disparage the First Nations several millenia of successfully living here too? They have good reason to not respect what we brought to and wrought on their land. What is your notion of Our Canadian Heritage there 12? Harper’s “Old Stock” pale doughy pink beady eyed herd I’ll bet. Conrad Black’s “Rise to Greatness” covers it all nicely.

#128 jorgecarlin on 10.24.16 at 9:48 am

#17 Lindsay Smith on 10.23.16 at 6:57 pm
There is no housing bubble in Canada. If one cannot afford to buy a home in world class cities like Toronto and Vancouver, the misogynistic country called the USA include cheaper cities like Miami, Florida & Tuscon, Arizona, USA…..Canada will remain a global superpower. ”

Do you do stand-up as well…maybe start out at Juste Pour Rires in Montreal….

#129 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.24.16 at 9:59 am

#95 fishman on 10.24.16 at 12:44 am

Damn fishman that post was epic!!

#130 Neil Armstrong on 10.24.16 at 10:09 am

Fartz on a roll today…good posts, boy oh boy…

So I see many posting about Disruption. It is here now and will begin its next onslaught very shortly and make inroads into their sheltered economics…

One of you said, wishfully “not this week, not this year or the next”… From my vantage point, this type of thinking is dangerous for your family and community.

Imagine saying “no, we don’t want electricity or computers, thank you”

http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/5-disruptive-technology-breakthroughs-will-shock-world/

#131 bdwy sktrn on 10.24.16 at 10:27 am

only one sfh sale in the hood this week. still selling over ask. 5 days on market. thank god this is not the hinterlands of downscale south burnaby. prices still going up near the downtown core.

2436 TURNER STREET
$1,279,000sell$1,302,000
dom 5
date 10/16/2016
—————————-
even the nicer condos going above ask at 4DOM – WOW
$899,000sell $950,000
10/10/2016
125 1863 STAINSBURY AVENUE

#132 fancy_pants on 10.24.16 at 10:29 am

Lack of supply in KW too, real estate is still on fire here. Line ups at some development openings! unheard of here just years ago. People moving further from Toronto due to lack of affordability there, demand + escalating prices being driven further and further out of the GTA.

Moved to new place last year. I put about $30k into it, already worth $100k more hands down. New neighbours all around me also bought new but kept their previous properties and renting them. One renting out basement as well. Has a basic laborer job. Across the road, about 6 families living in two adjacent homes. The whole thing has become a circus.

When will this end?

#133 my house is my friend on 10.24.16 at 10:42 am

If you vote for Hillary you are voting to glow in the dark.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231583

#134 Zen Headspace on 10.24.16 at 11:03 am

#103 M

“In the end mass stupidity is the most lucrative market.”
——————————————————————-

M is correct.

“Insanity in individuals is something rare – but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule.”

– Friedrich Nietzsche, Beyond Good and Evil, 1886

#135 Zen Headspace on 10.24.16 at 11:09 am

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz

“People have been “Raging at the Machine” since Karl Marx.
It didn’t work then .
It wont work now because, deep down, we’re all greedy and the machine knows it.”
——————————————————————-

Crowdedelevator Dude speaks the truth.

“The scrupulous and the just, the noble, humane, and devoted natures; the unselfish and the intelligent may begin a movement but it passes away from them. They are not the leaders of a revolution. They are its victims.”

– Joseph Conrad, Under Western Eyes, 1911

#136 bdwy sktrn on 10.24.16 at 11:25 am

here is the complete list of condos sold in the last 10 days in comm dr. not in loserville south burnaby where it seems clear that NOBODY wants to buy.

100% sold over asking price.
not one over 7 dom.

1422 E 3RD AVENUE $475,000 sell$479,000

204 1520 COTTON DRIVE $348,000 sell $381,500

207 1549 KITCHENER STREET 349,000 sell $360,500

220 2250 COMMERCIAL DRIVEV5N $500,000 sell $540,000

1220 E PENDER STREET $849,000 sell $870,000

2333 TRIUMPH STREET $599,000 sell $670,000

condos priced right (still!) sell over ask and in under a week – location , location, location.

not one single deal under ask – oh those poor desperate sellers!

#137 realist trader on 10.24.16 at 11:29 am

Canada’s mortgage brokers are finding ways around new lending rules. So it will be interesting to see how this pans out.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadas-mortgage-brokers-find-ways-around-new-lending-rules

#138 Alex N Calgary on 10.24.16 at 11:35 am

Wow is Genworth really being sold to the Chinese? yikes! Most people I talk to around Calgary know about the new Mortgage regs, and suspect something is amiss but aren’t really sure what it all means. I wonder if they really thought it would continue to climb and climb the hot markets even after the 25yr\1mil limits, is the foreign buyer tax and stress tests enough to finally start the spiral?

Like you said, no other asset bubble worldwide has ever had a soft landing. Oil and gas, nothing has changed worldwide, more production, more storage (somehow, where they are finding places to put crude I just don’t know) but BS speculative trading keeping it somewhat high. With almost no Canadian oil companies left to try and figure out a way to drill new wells and be profitable in this frozen tundra at a low price, I can’t see new profits coming back and combine that with huge inventories of houses here, well, asset spiral right? Not that I want to see it happen, but the truth is after waiting so long to buy a house after so many years or renting, hollow victory?

I watched live comments on FB for the NDP speech here in AB, same old same old, blame them for everything, memory of about 30min in this province, I saw one girl comment that with the new minimum wage hike she had to let her Nanny go (probably underpaid phillipino) 1st world problems eh?

#139 Pete on 10.24.16 at 11:36 am

“No longer will taxpayers backstop all of the risk involved in lending to people without money to buy houses can’t afford”. Of course the taxpayer will still be on the hook. It will just be in the form of bank bailouts or bail-ins.

#140 Context on 10.24.16 at 11:40 am

#83 Rexx Rock: – It must be nice heading to Mexico for the winter, so where are you going? I will be praying for you as there is a cartel war taking place everywhere like WW3. Tell me where you are going and will give you the odds of making it back alive.

#141 TurnerNation on 10.24.16 at 11:45 am

Go USD today. Goodbye to Poloz Peso.
It barely will by trinkets at Dollarama.

An seflie actor for PM. Bread and circuses.

#142 Damifino on 10.24.16 at 12:09 pm

#101 Metaxa

“…the inside of his vehicle was a cross between a garbage dump and ashtray. Won’t do business with someone who lives like that.
————————————-

One wonders then, how can you stand it here?

#143 For those about to flop... on 10.24.16 at 12:33 pm

Below is a link to what zolo thinks is happening in my hood.Prices have already dipped 30% in the last 3months.
I drove my wife a short distance to the supermarket on Saturday (20 blocks)but it was still enough to pass 5 or 6 open houses ,which I thought was unusual for this time of year.

I also checked out a few other neighborhoods on the site and what was going on in Kerrisdale surprised me as I thought prices would be a bit stickier there and the other one that stuck in my head was Cambie South which seemed to be defying the trend.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/fraser-ve/trends

//////////////////////////

As for bobs ur uncle’s message for me at #99.
Me too brother,me too…

M42BC

#144 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.24.16 at 12:36 pm

#17 Lindsay Smith on 10.23.16 at 6:57 pm

yeah… i dunno about all that…

#145 For those about to flop... on 10.24.16 at 12:38 pm

I wrote Cambie South instead of just Cambie.

Please forgive me for this transgression…

M42BC

#146 Victor V on 10.24.16 at 12:51 pm

Canada’s Record Household Debt Is Threatening Its Financial Stability

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-24/canada-s-swelling-debt-pile-raises-questions-over-future-growth

Canada’s debt, swelled by a decade-long housing boom to almost triple the size of its economy, is drawing increasing concern from an international banking community that says it threatens growth and financial stability.

The combined debt of Canadian governments, companies and households reached $4.4 trillion in the first quarter, or 288 percent of gross domestic product, exceeding the same gauge for the U.S., the U.K. and Italy, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

While Canada boasts the lowest government debt load among Group-of-Seven countries, household debt is the highest of its peers, the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said last month in its quarterly report. In September, Statistics Canada reported household liabilities rose to 100.5 percent of GDP, exceeding the size of its economy for the first time.

#147 Incubus on 10.24.16 at 12:52 pm

“Last week I estimated about a 15% correction in prices over a year or so”

This for the first year, then the meltdown will continue for few years.

I guess a total decline of 30% to 40% .

#148 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.24.16 at 12:57 pm

@#17 Lindsay Smith and #120 Gonkman-

I took that post as sarcasm from the get-go. At least I hope it was sarcasm.

#149 april on 10.24.16 at 12:59 pm

How correct is the National bank prediction that condos will drop “5%? over the next yr. Who’s going to wait around for a measly 5% decline….. Condos prices are so inflated in the Vancouver/Lowermainland area that they need to drop much more than 5%.

#150 For those about to flop... on 10.24.16 at 1:06 pm

Paging TurnerNation…

M42BC

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/556042/Poundland-charing-more-than-one-pound-Brexit

#151 Victor V on 10.24.16 at 1:08 pm

How big banks control one of the keys of the new mortgage rules

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/how-big-banks-control-one-of-the-keys-of-the-new-mortgage-rules

#152 R on 10.24.16 at 1:19 pm

There is a way around the new mortgage rules… sound like sub-prime north:
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadas-mortgage-brokers-find-ways-around-new-lending-rules

#153 Ronaldo on 10.24.16 at 1:38 pm

#17 Lindsay Smith

”Canada will remain a global superpower. If Donald Trump becomes the Prime Minister of the USA, his cocky attitude & disrespect against women will force investors to go north to invest in a country which respects the rights of women and girls.”

I wouldn’t have any respect for this one either. Now that is one vulgar gal and she’s running for president. She makes Trump seem like a saint.

http://www.dcclothesline.com/2013/08/25/the-filthy-mouth-of-hillary-clinton/

#154 jess on 10.24.16 at 1:41 pm

china’s internet plus point system for it’s citizens

China wants to give all of its citizens a score

The Communist Party wants to encourage good behaviour by marking all its people using online data. Those who fall short will be denied basic freedoms like loans or travel

http://www.independent.co.uk/topic/China

#155 Ace Goodheart on 10.24.16 at 1:54 pm

“Housing Bubble” is such a tricky expression. There is so much to be read on this issue. For example, a lot of the things Canadian banks and mortgage brokers are doing right now, are complained about in the countless books written in the USA following the 2008 housing collapse (including, interestingly enough, notional amortization period mortgages with rate reset clauses).

I have read (and read, and read, and read) on this subject (why I keep coming back to this particular blog actually). I have found two things that seem to be universally present in every pre-collapse “housing bubble”. Those two things are:

1. House prices that are out of reach of the middle class. I refer to this as the “goldilocks zone argument”. If the middle class can’t purchase a product, using every means at their disposal, then the product is doomed to failure. There just aren’t enough 1% ers out there to sustain a housing market, where the middle class can no longer purchase. This I believe is what has recently happened to Vancouver.

2. Houses being purchased by people who have no intention of living in them. This one is also huge. If a house goes up for sale in your city, and 30 people show up with their agents, all eager to purchase the house and eager to move in with their spouse/and or partner/ and or family, then likely your city is not in a real estate bubble. If the purchasers are buying the house as an “investment” that they have no intention of living in, that is a classic sign of a price bubble.

There is a third item that I often find, and that is fraud in the market. If you find the above two items, and then you also find a lot of fraud and misdoing (like in Vancouver, for example) then you have a sure sign of a housing bubble.

That is what I have been able to distill thus far, looking at this situation for quite a while now as a disinterested observer (I have no intention of selling my house, and it’s paid for, so I don’t really have any skin in this particular game).

#156 Karma on 10.24.16 at 1:58 pm

Garth, for subscribers only. So I’ve pasted it all, otherwise I would paste the link…

“College degree now divides Democrats from Republicans: poll

Call it the Degree Disparity, and put aside, perhaps just for this election, the Gender Gap. This fall the great division in American presidential politics is between those with a college degree and those without one.

To a startling degree, Americans who possess a bachelor’s degree are siding with former secretary of state Hillary Clinton – while those without a college degree are siding with New York businessman Donald Trump. College-educated white Americans now favour Ms. Clinton by about 15 percentage points, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll released this month. At the same time, whites without college degrees favour Mr. Trump by 23 percentage points.

This is a surprising new development. For the past six elections, whites with college degrees have sided with the Republican Party, sometimes by small margins – but four years ago, when former governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts was the GOP nominee, the margin was 14 percentage points. Mr. Trump’s support among whites without a college degree is generally within range of Mr. Romney and previous Republican nominees.

Related: Confident Clinton shifts campaign focus to ending Washington gridlock

Related: Divide, then rule: How the weird science of U.S. gerrymandering works

Related: Are Americans heading for a ‘wave election’?

This election could be the first time in decades in which college graduates favoured the Democratic candidate, according to a Pew Research Center study.

The sudden flood of college-educated voters into the Democrat camp – and the resulting Degree Disparity – is one of the more curious aspects of the American presidential campaign.

“This time around,” said William Mayer, a Northeastern University specialist on American presidential politics, “it’s not so much income as education that is the important element.”

The Degree Disparity could persist as an important element of American politics. Today 36 per cent of Americans between the ages of 25 and 34 have college degrees – and they will be factors in presidential races far longer than Americans over 65, a fast-declining group for which the rate of college graduation is only at 27 per cent, according to United States Census Bureau figures.

“This gap will continue to widen in upcoming elections,” said Andrew Simpson, a historian at Duquesne University. “This speaks to important changes in party alignments in the country.”

In recent months, it has become clear that many of the blue-collar voters who, since Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, had a comfortable home in the Democratic Party, are drifting into the Republican Party, in large measure because of Mr. Trump’s vow to bring back manufacturing jobs and end trade agreements that he, and many of these workers, believe have eroded the American job base.

The appeal Mr. Trump has for Americans without a college degree is not difficult to understand, for he has mobilized the support of voters, many of them unemployed or underemployed, who might otherwise have manufacturing jobs but who have been left behind by globalization. A specific target of especially bitter resentment: the North American free-trade agreement, which includes Canada and Mexico, and is blamed for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the Rust Belt, particularly the swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, where the battle between the two candidates is at its rawest and most urgent.

One study by two Harvard economists found that college graduates’ wages now exceed those of high-school graduates by 77 per cent – far more than the gap in 1980, which was about 40 per cent. A separate study by the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania – where Mr. Trump was educated in the undergraduate Class of 1968 – found that lifetime average compensation of college graduates exceeds that of non-graduates by about $2-million (U.S.). A college degree, the Wharton study concluded, produces a “positive and persistent” economic benefit.

“The split in this election speaks to this change in society, for it is really hard nowadays to make a good living if you didn’t go to college,” said Jay Cost, a prominent conservative commentator who writes for The Weekly Standard magazine, a popular publication on the right. “Trump’s given voice to the grievances of those without a college degree.”

At the same time, Mr. Trump’s positions have little resonance with voters who have college degrees – and that group is growing. In 1940, only about 5 per cent of Americans held a college degree, but by 1976, a quarter of those aged 25 to 29 had graduated from college. Over all today, a third of Americans have a BA degree, split evenly between women (33 per cent) and men (32 per cent). Despite the prominent talk about the Gender Gap, there are indications college-educated women and college-educated men vote in tandem.

Many of the states being contested in the last few weeks of the election have large groups of college graduates, especially New Hampshire. At the same time, Ohio, which is perhaps the greatest battleground in the campaign and which provides 18 of the 270 electoral votes required for election, is dominated by those – fully 72 per cent – who are not college graduates.

Political professionals agree that the battle for the 20 electoral votes in Pennsylvania is in the Philadelphia suburbs, where there is a large cluster of college graduates. In Montgomery, one of those vital suburban counties, George H.W. Bush, the 1988 Republican presidential nominee (and eventual winner), took 60 per cent of the vote. In 2012, when Democratic President Barack Obama was seeking re-election, he took nearly 57 per cent of the vote.

The bad news for Mr. Trump: Nearly half of the residents of Montgomery County hold a college degree – and a fifth of the county’s residents hold a graduate degree.”

#157 Samantha on 10.24.16 at 2:00 pm

Sadly in GTA RE prices are beyond reason, and even 30-40% correction will leave the prices out of reach for 80% of population. Look at these listings in Yonge & Eglinton area:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17333589/212-BROADWAY-AVE-Toronto-Ontario-M4P1V9-Mount-Pleasant-East#v=d – 3br, 2bath – $1,499,000 – tiny lot

or maybe this lovely semi 3br, 2bath for $1,699,000?

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17483610/98-EDITH-DR-Toronto-Ontario-M4R1Z2-Yonge-Eglinton

or if you don’t care for semis this 3br, 2bath detached on this standard city lot for $1,699,000?

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17500030/178-ST-CLEMENTS-AVE-Toronto-Ontario-M4R1H2-Yonge-Eglinton

So if prices in this prime neighbourhood go down by 35% over a couple of years, those $1.7M houses will cost about $1.1M and will still be well beyond reach of the average buyer, and that don’t even takes in consideration the tightened mortgage market that will come with such a drastic decline.

If prices in prime Toronto neighbourhoods go down 35% then what happens to 905 will be a carnage to the tune of 50%+ decline. If this ever happened the GTA economy will go into deep depression, and instead of shopping for bargain prices you’ll be lucky to have a job…

#158 GreaterFool D. on 10.24.16 at 2:11 pm

#17
Politicians and diapers needs to be changed often and for the same reason. Lindsey works for Justin as nanny.

#159 MF on 10.24.16 at 2:14 pm

I realized Boom Stopped posting around the time Garth implemented the new rules.

Hope he is alright too.

MF

#160 bdwy sktrn on 10.24.16 at 2:28 pm

#140 TurnerNation on 10.24.16 at 11:45 am
Go USD today. Goodbye to Poloz Peso.
—————————-
moments ago i did just that;
move 100k from bank to investing acct, buy 1200 rbc in cdn, sell 1200 rbc in usd, move ~75k to usd bank account.

took 10 minutes. zero conversion cost.

shares moved up 8 cents between trades = 96 bucks less of commission 19.99.

get paid to go usd.

(need usd for building a barn/garage/my dream workshop on us soil yet only 45 min from vancouver)

#161 jess on 10.24.16 at 2:31 pm

Wild Bill speaks to precarious work

read about ” umbrella firms”

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/oct/21/temporary-workers-umbrella-companies-extra-costs-dodging-ni-cutting-rights-supply-teachers

#162 Fluorine on 10.24.16 at 2:38 pm

I second #79 Walter’s request for answers to his questions, as I have many of the same ones. Some discussion on this aspect of house-related debt and how it will work with falling home prices would be nice!

~Flu

#163 The on 10.24.16 at 2:52 pm

#151 R

My in-Laws are “shadow lenders” but they still secure the loan against the property. Which usually means a 2nd or 3rd mortgage. If the homeowner defaults they have to stand in line or buy the 1st out. In this crazy and falling market they are not taking on many new customers.

#164 EB on 10.24.16 at 3:04 pm

Is there an easy online source for time series of the volume of listings in Vancouver?

Purely anecdotal, but driving through North and West Van this weekend it seemed like there was a dramatic jump in the number of For Sale signs (and even For Rent signs on multi-million dollar oceanview homes in West Van). But on the other hand, single observations without historical data are more or less meaningless.

#165 TurnerNation on 10.24.16 at 3:19 pm

Flop #149…they can thank Blog dog Carney and his UK rate cuts for this?

#166 Context on 10.24.16 at 3:28 pm

Does anymore want to make an offer on the exclusive Millennium Tower 58 stories high? Its in San Francisco and is sinking fast tilting has begun both at the top and at the bottom. Engineers have no clue what to do as cannot find a fix, and the condo owners are worried; perhaps a small quake might make an adjustment. I wonder if such could occur in Toronto.

#167 Moller on 10.24.16 at 3:47 pm

Toronto, prepare yourself for a wave of investors from Vancouver…

Ontario will not follow B.C.’s tax on foreign homebuyers, Premier Wynne says
http://www.bnn.ca/ontario-will-not-follow-b-c-s-tax-on-foreign-homebuyers-premier-wynne-says-1.591238

#168 CJBob on 10.24.16 at 3:50 pm

I’m missing the point of everyone guessing how far real estate will drop. And I emphasis guessing.

I bought more US$ yesterday while it was at .7502 and today’s it’s down to .7475 – this isn’t a guess it’s a clear trend.

#169 Trumppet on 10.24.16 at 3:51 pm

I cannot believe the media brainwashed Canadians on this board who really think Hillary is better than Trump. All that that’s leaked out through Wikileaks, her track record and dirty laundry speak volumes!!!! Everything Trump is criticized for she is worse 100 fold.

She is Demon in women’s clothing.

I’m not crazy about Trump but I ABSOLUTELY despise Clinton!!!

Go Mr. Trump! I actually believe your economic policies will even be superior.

#170 Desperate realtors on 10.24.16 at 4:04 pm

#135 bdwy sktrn

Typical lying half truth cherry picking useless realtor. Open up MLS and let everyone see your desperate lies. You lying useless realtors would be instantly exposed as the useless lying scum AKA realtor

#171 TurnerNation on 10.24.16 at 4:26 pm

Poloz say NO HIKES. This is war as we know it.
Punish savers. Inflation will do the rest.
Serfdom.

#172 NoName on 10.24.16 at 4:30 pm

Hey Boom, where are you, i have questions, and i know you have an answers.
This morning my super luxurious omnidirectional watchamajigger
went to haven on a qew. what i need to know how big is trunk in that fusion energy of yours (you were planning to get one few months back) and real world gas mileage, are wee looking 3-3.5 l/100 city driving? (i’m metric)

#173 Canada's record Debt on 10.24.16 at 4:47 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-record-household-debt-is-threatening-its-financial-stability-global-bankers-fear

“When you get to levels on total debt that makes even the Italians blush, you know you’re in a straitjacket”

#174 Context on 10.24.16 at 4:48 pm

#79 Walter: The only concern the bank will have is the amount of the existing equity for any refinancing arrangement. Now if they are underwater with a negative equity they might consider coming up with more cash or if they are broke just send the keys back to the bank and disappear to parts unknown.

#175 Russ on 10.24.16 at 4:53 pm

#159 bdwy sktrn on 10.24.16 at 2:28 pm
#140 TurnerNation on 10.24.16 at 11:45 am
Go USD today. Goodbye to Poloz Peso.
—————————-
moments ago i did just that;
move 100k from bank to investing acct, buy 1200 rbc in cdn, sell 1200 rbc in usd, move ~75k to usd bank account.

took 10 minutes. zero conversion cost.

shares moved up 8 cents between trades = 96 bucks less of commission 19.99.

get paid to go usd.

(need usd for building a barn/garage/my dream workshop on us soil yet only 45 min from vancouver)
==========================

Can anyone offer a tutorial for opening a US bank account without a US residential address?

I want to set something up for Hawaii vacation time and car purchase (for part of year use).

#176 Stephen Shaw on 10.24.16 at 5:17 pm

As a deplorable Christian, I believe in stuff. I know you do too, just different stuff. That’s ok but may I disagree?
Donald Trump is not a lunatic. He has employed hundreds of people for decades, put food on their table, in mostly honorable endeavors. He took his father’s money and multiplied it in a most cutthroat real estate market. Apparently many he’s employed still like him. And yup, he’s a piece of work.
The elites hate him. I despise the elites.
I despise the Clintons.
The New Testament allows such characterizations.
A vote for some not-in-the-running candidate is to wuss out.
Why I’m voting the GOP ticket:
1. Israel. No issue matters more. Christianity is a religion grafted into a Jewish root. Jesus was Jewish, the Bible tells a Jewish story. A secularist are you? No country in the area affords such honorable protection to minority groups such as the LGBTQ community.
2. Pro-life. If life begins at conception, Democratic Party allegiance is difficult.
3. Borders. The poor and weakest among us rely on the rule of law, becoming fodder in its absence. Enforcement helps them by denying predators yet another avenue of exploitation.

#177 bdy sktn on 10.24.16 at 5:41 pm

169 Desperate realtor
………..
Smells like vreu in here!

Sorry you don’t like the facts but you nor I change the past. This is the market right now. Not what you wish but what is. (For the past 10 days at least)
My buddy realtor has his own firm he asks me weekly for many years when am I getting my license . I refuse to ever work weekends. Or mornings. Family time is evenings. The rest is barely enough time to read this revolting blog, follow the markets.
and walk the puppy. So, no, not a realtor. But can get the data he’s very helpful.

#178 bdy sktn on 10.24.16 at 5:55 pm

Russ
……
Usd acct avail at your bank.
Don’t know about having it at a us bank.(Google? )
Just got a American visa card no us address reqd.

#179 John on 10.24.16 at 7:27 pm

Garth, hire some kid in India for $20/week to moderate the comments and spend some time with your wife.

#180 AJ on 10.24.16 at 7:35 pm

Our house has been up for 10 days now. Small bungalow (1300sq ft), amazing lot (110×160). McMansion bait. Anyways we wait and see. Only 9 showings so far. GTA hinterlands. Thank you Garth and the dogs for your advice. Wish us luck!