Election exhaustion

exhaustion-modified

RYAN  By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

Well it’s almost over! American voters head to the polls on November 8 to elect the 45th President of the United States, and for even us political junkies, this day couldn’t come sooner. By one measure, this US election cycle will have lasted nearly 600 days, with 22 primary debates, 3 Presidential debates, and a whole lot of craziness in between. Will it be the establishment candidate and Washington insider “crooked Hillary” or the orange-faced, reality TV star, real estate mogul and all around whack-job Donald J. Trump?

It is increasingly looking like Hillary will pull out the win with her widening lead in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Clinton now leads Trump by a commanding 6 points, and with only 2.5 weeks to go, something drastic would have to occur to alter this trajectory. Looking at historical polling data, the closer we get to the Election Day the higher the predicative power of the polls, making it a major uphill battle for Trump from here. Against this backdrop we wonder what impact a Hillary win could have on the economy and equity markets?

In reviewing Hillary’s proposals we find a lot of similarity with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s election platform with the focus clearly on the middle class, largely through the redistribution of income. Unlike Trump who proposes major personal and corporate tax cuts across the board, or as Hillary coined it “Trumped-up tickle down economics”, Hillary would target her tax cuts to the middle class. She is proposing a number of tax initiatives and polices such as increasing the child tax credit, making university tuition free for families making less than US$85,000, and raising the Federal minimum wage from US$7.25 per hour to US$12. Overall, her tax plans would cut taxes for 80% of Americans, according to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center.

To pay for all these tax cuts and initiatives she would raise personal tax rates by 4% on individuals earning more than US$5 million, enact a new minimum effective tax rate of 30% (the “Buffett Rule”), and eliminate other tax benefits for the wealthy such as the carried interest provision and caps on itemized tax deductions.

The economic impact of Hillary’s policies is, of course, greatly debated with often conflicting views on whether they will boost economic growth. The left believes that the tax cuts for the middle class will boost spending and growth, while the right believes taxing the rich will crimp investment and economic growth.

Our view is that we see Hillary Clinton’s policies likely being net neutral for their economy, with the main thrust of her policies being more about the redistribution of wealth rather than wealth creation. That said, one area where we much prefer Hillary’s plan over Trump’s is on deficits and debt levels. Under Trump’s aggressive tax cut plan, government tax revenue would drop significantly, resulting in trillions of dollars of new debt over time. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, they estimate that Trump’s plan would add US$11.5 trillion in new debt, causing debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP to rise to 127% by 2026. In contrast, they estimate Hillary’s plan would add US$250 billion in new debt over a decade, pushing debt to GDP to 87%.

With us being deficit hawks and having real concerns over the rising debt levels in the US, we have a clear preference for Hillary’s plan over Trump in this regard.

Debt Levels for the Candidates’ Proposals (% of GDP)

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Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Moving on to the equity market implications, a Hillary win would be bullish for the US stock market based on our research. Contrary to what most believe that Republican’s pro-business stance is bullish for the stock market, actual historical price returns show a much different story. Since 1945 there have been 8 Democratic Presidents and 9 Republican Presidents. We calculated the average return in the first year of a President’s term under both Democratic and Republican Presidents with the results shown below. On average, the S&P 500 gains 15% in the first year under a Democratic President versus -2% under a Republican President. Moreover, the S&P 500 was positive in 7 of the 8 years under a Democratic President in year 1 versus just 3 of 9 positive returns under a Republican President.

While I can just see some of the pro-Trump blog dogs salivating to rip into me and our view that Hillary would be better for the stock market, it’s hard to deny how bullish these statistics are for stock returns heading into next year under a potential Democratic President. This was also evident following the first two debates where the S&P 500 rallied the following day as Hillary was declared the winner in the debates.

Let’s just hope that there’s no last minute surprise by WikiLeaks or some Russian hackers that derail Hillary’s commanding lead over Trump.

S&P 500 Average in Year 1 of Presidential Term

ryan-2

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
Ryan Lewenza, CFA,CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

162 comments ↓

#1 Donald J Trump on 10.22.16 at 2:35 pm

Wrong

#2 Blaze on 10.22.16 at 2:43 pm

S&P looks like it did a double top and like it’s ready to crack. Hope that’s not a sign DJT is going to win : [

#3 Context on 10.22.16 at 2:53 pm

Welcome Sir Lew and just where are your stats from the States who have done the early voting? Surely a man of political expertise would have known this or did you forget to add this into your essay.

#4 Frank on 10.22.16 at 3:03 pm

Clinton, as unlikable as she may be, is better for our portfolios and our sense of dignity.

#5 paulo on 10.22.16 at 3:06 pm

Ryan, great article well researched .
I agree we will all be glad when the circus ends, the 45th
presidential race will go down in the history books, as the race where the electorate was forced to choose from “The Best Of The Worst”, sad considering that history has usually produced some of the best and most taleted individuals running for office
be it as it may, i think you are correct on your analysis of
Hillary, seems she is on the same page as our T2 gang, here in Canada. as a dual citizen US/CAN to be perfectly honest my us side is ashamed of this election and the nonsense associated. i think a Hillary win will equate to a steady as she goes approach, with likely good relations between Ottawa and Washington. a Trump win will spin us and the world into parts unknown. in the end it is the American Citizens Call, so to my fellow citizens state side- get out and VOTE! After the 8th we can start to deal with the real issues: Canada all about trying to stay out of recession. US: all about keeping our modest
and fragile recovery on track.

#6 Cloudy on 10.22.16 at 3:08 pm

I know the stock market behavior is what you’re concerned about, but isn’t the boost under democrats largely at the expense if long term growth and stability through spending and expanding debt? Basically kicking the can? Fiscal conservatism isn’t supposed to result in quick wins, but rather a solid slow and steady diesel-like economic engine? Not that I think that’s what Trump stands for BTW.

#7 hope & ruin on 10.22.16 at 3:08 pm

It would be crazy if a wikileaks derailed the whole thing. Some great political theatre these days.

Watching the Donald destroy the field in the early republican debates was great, and his demise has been just as good.

No mention in your analysis on Hilarys plan to squash tpp. She is pro global trade but anti tpp. Means what another 8 years to renegotiate? I doubt she will but how do we know what initiatives she will follow through on if she lies about some?

#8 Willdaman on 10.22.16 at 3:10 pm

Won’t such a drastic increase to minimum wage create some heavy inflationary pressure? (Yes I’m thinking about a gold play).

#9 jess on 10.22.16 at 3:15 pm

https://theintercept.com/2016/10/10/hillary-clinton-privately-pitched-corporations-on-really-low-tax-rate-for-money-stashed-abroad/

…”cutting corporate taxes on overseas profits, with transition revenue going toward infrastructure

…through an “infrastructure bank”lower tax rate would have to be permanent, Schumer replied, “Yes, you can’t do a one-shot deal.”

https://newrepublic.com/article/138023/huge-corporate-tax-cut-hillary-clinton-doesnt-talk

#10 For those about to flop... on 10.22.16 at 3:19 pm

Here is a chart that tries to help undecided voters out by stating the stances of each of the four candidates on popular topics.

I didn’t post much this week as being an R.V owner the Democrat Party invited me down to Georgia to give a demonstration on how to dispose appropriately of human waste.

Could of swore I saw a turd that looked just like Donald Trump…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/a/scs72

#11 Wrk.dover on 10.22.16 at 3:20 pm

First time I have seen what I long suspected, in print.

I have never understood the advantage of a republican regime.

#12 Gasbag Boomer on 10.22.16 at 3:28 pm

Very interesting Ryan. I, for one would have guessed the other way round regarding the benefit to equities vs. Election winners.

#13 Figmund Sreud on 10.22.16 at 3:54 pm

Are we absolutely sure that we want Hillary ( with a deep-seated inferiority complex) become POTUS? [ … you be a judge!]

Why America Is Exceptional
http://time.com/4521509/2016-election-clinton-exceptionalism/?xid=homepage

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#14 Doug t on 10.22.16 at 3:59 pm

I don’t understand – why “hope” that Hitlery doesn’t get derailed. Come on buddy it’s all a joke, a sham – they are both horrible and to boot the presidency is a puppet. Why do people continue to pay attention? Wake up – stop watching mainstream media it blows. Pull the curtain aside and see the amazing Oz at work.

Of course nobody knows – their all making it up as they go along now. Central banks are off the rails and have no clue what to do. “Economists” are useless because we no longer are following any of the rules of traditional economics. Debt is king – printing money is all they have and the game is rigged. Banks are like slum lords that give you just barely enough attention to let you feel like your still a “customer”. And the elites run around in circles without a clue as to how to handle these new issues facing us.

I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel’s worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there’s nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there’s no end to it. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TV’s while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be. We know things are bad – worse than bad. They’re crazy. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don’t go out anymore. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we are living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, ‘Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials and I won’t say anything. Just leave us alone.’ Well, I’m not gonna leave you alone. I want you to get mad! I don’t want you to protest. I don’t want you to riot – I don’t want you to write to your congressman because I wouldn’t know what to tell you to write. I don’t know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street. All I know is that first you’ve got to get mad. You’ve got to say, ‘I’m a HUMAN BEING, God damn it! My life has VALUE!’

RATM

#15 Andrew Woburn on 10.22.16 at 4:02 pm

Let’s just hope that there’s no last minute surprise by WikiLeaks or some Russian hackers that derail Hillary’s commanding lead over Trump.
====================

She’s already a demon. What else matters.

How do I know? Alex Jones told me.

It appears that satire is dead.

http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/alex-jones-hillary-clinton-is-a-damn-demon-who-smells-like-rotting-meat/

#16 BobC on 10.22.16 at 4:03 pm

As long as the stock market goes up… Really, that’s the only important thing in life. smh

#17 Domain on 10.22.16 at 4:05 pm

For another analysis of the Trump / Clinton tax plan effects, see a study by taxfoundation.org:

http://taxfoundation.org/blog/how-do-clinton-and-trumps-tax-plans-compare?mc_cid=0a0be4362e&mc_eid=2a9d7dffab

#18 Domain on 10.22.16 at 4:11 pm

I still think the us voters will go Brexit on this one, and shock a lot of people. Anti-establishment parties around the world are surprising the old guard all of the time now.

It’s what brought the biggest shocker defeat in Alberta, where those poor people cut off their own noses to spite their face.

We are now in a period of outliers and fat-tail events. Conventional wisdom won’t apply in a lot of cases, and in other cases, fundamentals are about to come storming back to life.

#19 Debtslavecreator on 10.22.16 at 4:16 pm

Clinton will win – if against all odds Trump wins he will not take office. They will blame Russia for hacking the machines and hand the reins over to Biden or Obama will simply stay on
But very likely Clinton will win

Mark, your constant comments about a stronger CAD are nonsensical- you need to look at currency in domestic and international value and the ultimate test its value in terms of hard assets

In the next 12 months the CAD will likely touch .60 USD with a chance at .55-60. So one CAD a year from now will likely buy you 10-15% more house in the GTA, but 10-15 % less food , about 20 % less USD, more consumer electronics (weak demand due to weakening economy).

We are likely in the first or second inning of a nasty few years of stagflation. The CAD may temporarily gain value in terms of how much house and TVs but will still be losing value steadily in terms of food, and USd
In the final stage of this economic crisis we are in the CAD and all of its paper cousins will have lost 50-80% of the buying power in terms of food, oil, timber , gold etc
The CAD may be over par relative to the usd when the final stage comes but it means nothing as your grocery bill will be 4-500$/ week and probably more ,and a house will have recovered and might sell for slightly more than 2016 prices in nominal terms

Paper versus paper is one measure but ultimately it is how much hard stuff that paper buys domestically and internationally that matters

The CAD peaked in 2007 and has been downward since and history shows most currencies overshoot to the upside and also to the downside in PPP over time

CAD will overshoot to the downside over the next 12 months relative to USD

#20 Mark on 10.22.16 at 4:19 pm

“In contrast, they estimate Hillary’s plan would add US$250 billion in new debt over a decade, pushing debt to GDP to 87%.”

Good lord, Obama’s added over a trillion a year, and Hillary has, as is suggested, policies that aren’t markedly different from that of Obama’s. So why should her outcome be meaningfully better? Only $250B in new debt without absolutely massive spending cuts and a dramatic pick-up in the US economy (that somehow doesn’t cause an escalation/normalization of interest rates back to those typical of a vibrant and growing economy!)? Seriously, I’m on the floor laughing and milk is shooting out of my nostrils reading tripe like that from an organization that is obviously biased and partisan. No credibility whatsoever.

#21 Metaxa on 10.22.16 at 4:22 pm

I’d kick in a couple of grand to help this blog go live, no moderation, instant publishing of all posts, the evening of November 8 and all day November 9.

I no longer consume popcorn but I do have a very comfortable chair at my computer with a restroom nearby…it would be fun, eh?

Good idea. Let’s do it. — Garth

#22 Eco Capitalist on 10.22.16 at 4:29 pm

Tickle down economics? That’s a touchy subject Mr. Lewenza!

Sorry, low hanging fruit…

#23 Wait There on 10.22.16 at 4:32 pm

Now what if there is a serious leak that would be of real concern to the electorate. We’re only half way through, a big leak will be released so that there is no time to respond and kill the life of the issue. It will happen within a week of the election date more like 2 to 4 days prior. Like Rowat made the call for September hike. I will make the call for a biggie release. You need at least a week to make an issue die off, Wikileaks is not that stupid to kick it out early.
It’s obvious that there is something big lurking inside the closet, look at that wide happy smile of innocence.

#24 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 4:45 pm

Hillary declared winner in the debates?

Garth spend some money and buy Ryan an Internet connection.

My Herdomoter is reporting Hillary is poised to get slaughtered. But then those George Soros voting machines.. And bus loads of illegal voters put this at a vurtual Tie.

Anything is possible.

#25 isuckless on 10.22.16 at 5:00 pm

“we find a lot of similarity with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s election platform with the focus clearly on the middle class” and “Hillary’s plan would add US$250 billion in new debt over a decade” as a frugal comparing to Trump. T2 added 10 times more debt in just his first year so then Hillary will be adding 3 trillion?

#26 isuckless on 10.22.16 at 5:14 pm

Someone in Republican Party should restore good old ways
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=25838

#27 Millenial on 10.22.16 at 5:20 pm

Few better ways to decimate the american economy than to raise the Federal minimum wage to $12 an hour.

#28 MSM-Free Zone on 10.22.16 at 5:24 pm

Clearly you’ve learned nothing from the last ‘600 days’.

The logic in your last paragraph confirms exactly why a narcissistic, racist, serial lying, incoherent, philandering incompetent simpleton like Trump could ever rise this close to power in the first place. i.e. It’s better for the nation as a whole to continue hiding the truth from the electorate and install an equally incompetent serial liar into the oval office.

Didn’t work out to well in 2008 did it?

#29 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 5:25 pm

This is Shlongs biggest mistake. Shlong Zumanga = The Machine. Deep State. It’s in my book.

MSM constantly preaching Hillary in the leed. Trump losing support. Total bull vs Herdomoter reports.

If lazy millineals think it’s clinched, they won’t vote for Killary and will be out tail gating early.

Every committed Deplorable will vote cause they know 100% MSM is full of Crap

Epic backfire for Killary.

They should be saying it’s to close to call and help mobilize the young mind twisted.

But like all lefty loons it’s all about consensus and fitting in.

Even with rigged voting machines and bus loads of illegal voters.

Trump 58% to Hillary 42%

And that’s conservative.. Will be enough for electoral collage, don’t know.

#30 When Will They Raise Rates? on 10.22.16 at 5:33 pm

Let’s just hope that there’s no last minute surprise by WikiLeaks or some Russian hackers that derail Hillary’s commanding lead over Trump.

The MSM polls you refer to (that make up the RealClearPolitics average) are oversampling democrats, therefore this “commanding lead” you speak of isn’t real. The most accurate poll over the last 2 elections has Trump ahead of Hillary:

http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-ibdtipp-poll/

And this notion that “Russian hackers” are responsible for the Podesta email leaks is blatant MSM propaganda to deflect and distract from the actual content of the leaks. There is zero evidence the leaks came from Russia, and in fact, an NSA whistleblower says DNC hack was not done by Russia, but by U.S. intelligence:

http://theduran.com/nsa-whistleblower-says-dnc-hack-not-done-russia-us-intelligence/

With us being deficit hawks and having real concerns over the rising debt levels in the US, we have a clear preference for Hillary’s plan over Trump in this regard.

Are you factoring in the effect on the deficit and debt that the cost of war with Syria and Russia will be under Hillary Clinton?

#31 When Will They Raise Rates? on 10.22.16 at 5:56 pm

On another note, this just in from Ross Kay:

“Vancouver has set a record price crash in the history of North America!”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehM_rhKffy0

#32 espressobob on 10.22.16 at 5:58 pm

Globally diversified investors already have a large weighting in the S&P 500 along with mid cap and Russell 2000. Well, at least some of us do, just saying.

It’s easier to cover all the bases. Corrections it seems today are global. Buying opportunities present themselves and what do most DIY investors do?

#33 TurnerNation on 10.22.16 at 6:02 pm

A good fish story: the one that got away.

Six years ago a realtor accquaintence, S. TK. C., an original original owner and lessor at 1 King W (home of the, ahem, bachelor pads.) invited me to open house at newer development across from Angus Glen Golf course way N of Toronto. I now know this is a “Rich-mon” area.

It was the builder’s model home – all decked out with every bell whistle and do-dad. Price? $640,000.
Obviously out of my range and I knew zip about RE back then.

I googled it, last listing was new $1,500,000.
Anyone want a $800,000 pay day for 6 years of ‘work’?

Time for “Edwin Starr… I just wanted to cry. 1970 Motwn”??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYIPMeQ1mDM

His other..the best syncopated horn line I’ve heard ever
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PbNSqzm4Hg

#34 Rock Beats Paper on 10.22.16 at 6:03 pm

“it’s hard to deny how bullish these statistics are for stock returns heading into next year under a potential Democratic President.”

Not really! How statistically significant is your sample size? How often were we in the zero bound? How many times was the expansion 8 years old at the outset? How many times was the average medium stock’s trailing P/E at an all time record (~26)?

In other words, you have poor context. On the other hand, predicting is notoriously fraught with difficulty. Just ask Bernanke, “House prices have never gone down…”

#35 Context on 10.22.16 at 6:04 pm

This will become an honest election as the sun also rises and may the better person win. This election is the most important in recent history and even the illegals, as well as, the sacred dead will be voting for a winner. They are posting their ballads now as the voting started for both in person and mail-ins on September 23rd; not on November 8th as the election will be over by then.

#36 TurnerNation on 10.22.16 at 6:08 pm

Herdonomics. I’ve been going to 2 birthday parties each week, last week, this week, and four more coming up (one is mine).
Why…nine months earlier is February. That time of Super Bowl Sunday and Valentines Day. Human behavior never never changes. A mix of sweaty pursuit, roses and beer does it every time.

#37 Tony on 10.22.16 at 6:11 pm

A Hillary win would be bullish for the stock market for about two days after the election. From there the bear market that should have started 6 years ago (actually the bear market from the dot-com crash never ended) will start in earnest. 6 years of losses carried forward to add to the future losses for stocks. Shades of ’29 all over again.

#38 Andrew Woburn on 10.22.16 at 6:12 pm

#17 Domain on 10.22.16 at 4:11 pm
I still think the us voters will go Brexit on this one, and shock a lot of people. Anti-establishment parties around the world are surprising the old guard all of the time now.
===============

I think the pre-Brexit polls were probably reasonably accurate. The “Remain” side was so sure they were right that many didn’t bother to vote. In normal times that was a good bet since a lot of the “Leave” side would have also failed to vote, but this time they were upset enough to show.

Obviously Trumpsters are going to be out in full force, especially since they are worried about the vote being “rigged”, but Democrats are on high alert also and are unlikely to be complacent.

I find it hard to believe that, at this juncture, there is a massive hidden Trump vote since his supporters are very vocal. I don’t know why they would feel any need to hide their intentions from pollsters now.

#39 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 6:18 pm

DELETED

#40 Mr. Frugal on 10.22.16 at 6:24 pm

Hillary is big on wealth redistribution. She takes you wealth and distributes it to her corrupt buddies.

#41 nonplused on 10.22.16 at 6:27 pm

The thing is with a Hillary win the New York Stock Exchange will close for good in a massive mushroom cloud. Oh well that way we won’t have to worry about a crash.

I don’t think there will be any Russian hacks and nor do I think there has been any. The hacks were all likely internal. Why would Putin care what was being said in the DNC? Why would they care who wins the election? Why would they favor Trump over Hillary? I think they are up to their arses in their own problems. The only possible advantage to them might be if they perceive Trump to be less likely to start shooting their planes out of the sky over Syria.

Also it would be very bad form to hack the American election machine because whatever they do to the Americans the Americans are more than capable of doing to them. I mean I am sure that the Russians, like almost every country out there, are gathering as much information as possible, but you don’t the go and tell everyone you are gathering information or how you got it. That’s just stupid. I’m also pretty certain the NRA has all of Putin’s emails too so it would just be playing with fire.

I also think it much more likely the DDoS attacks on the internet this week were more likely a protest from Wikileaks supporters after Julian Assange’s internet was cut than a Russian attack. I mean it could have been some Russian hacker working away in his parent’s basement, hackers are everywhere, but state sponsored? Unthinkable. The risk of a far more serious counter attack is just too great. The Americans could probably brick the whole Russian internet indefinitely. Or just unplug them.

The whole “Russian Hackers” thing is a red herring to distract from the actual content of the Wikileaks releases. The Russians wouldn’t get caught doing something like that any more than they would get caught shooting down an airliner. Unless they are complete idiots of course. Which is possible but I don’t think so.

Anyway, IMHO it will make little difference who wins on the 8th the US government can’t be turned on a dime. Checks and balances. Trump won’t have to build a wall because congress simply won’t fund it. Hillary won’t bomb Syria because there is too much Russian equipment in the way. It’s a stale mate either way and life will carry on pretty much as it always has. (I hope.)

More important is that we stop electing lefty dreamers in Canada.

#42 Context on 10.22.16 at 6:32 pm

They will be posting their ballads which is a narrative poem intended to be sung. Thus the ballots counted have been dedicated to Kate Smith in memory of her song called God Bless America. The tune will be different from years gone by as high in the clouds she will be singing the blues instead for a country that has fallen from grace on the 9th.

#43 CJBob on 10.22.16 at 6:39 pm

#19 Mark on 10.22.16 at 4:19 pm
I’m on the floor laughing and milk is shooting out of my nostrils reading tripe like…
__________________
Excellent, now you know how everyone here feels when you post about the CAD$ and interest rates.

#44 Grey Dog on 10.22.16 at 6:44 pm

The only thing keeping me going now is Alex Baldwin on SNL…I’m really missing the Daly Show this election season.
Trump is one scary hombres! I’m afraid he will incite civil unrest, if he were to lose.

I cannot wait til November 9 ELECTION OVER AND DECIDED.

#45 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 6:44 pm

#38 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 6:18 pm
DELETED

Damn no way I’ll make to an 8pm for concert. Any blog dogs in western NY want front row seats to meelloncamp @smokingman on Twitter.

This honey flavored JD is deadly goes down like waterrr

#46 acdel on 10.22.16 at 6:47 pm

#3 Frank
Clinton, as unlikable as she may be, is better for our portfolios and our sense of dignity.
———————————————————
I have to agree with you. Seriously how despicable that only these two candidates are running for President. I get both point of views but a country 300 million plus could not generate enough interest from the brilliant minds that could surely make a difference is a loss to all of us in whatever country one lives in. I wish Canada could work as a country as opposed being hijacked by a bunch of special interest lunatics.

#47 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 6:47 pm

Hum?

http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/finally-wikileaks-releases-details-exactly-hillary-stealing-election/

#48 Pete on 10.22.16 at 6:51 pm

I have extended family in Vaduz and they tell me that the word around FL is that Trump is going to win, it’s been all set since a while back. Trump is to win because, and I’ll put it as it was told to me, ‘he is to play the exact same role as the man who Mackenzie-King said would go down in history along side the likes of Joan Of Arc as the deliverer of his people.’
If I had the means, I would be moving to Tonga.

#49 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 6:53 pm

Oh and by the way Ryan. Pedesta was not hacker by Russians. He’s an idiot who got sucked into a phising.

Gave our his password and username voluntary.

Christ I’m getting aggressive. Going back to wine. JD is dangerous.

#50 Ace Goodheart on 10.22.16 at 6:53 pm

I know a guy who bought a house way up North Kirkland Lake area. Paid 35,000 for it (yes Canadian dollars) a couple of years ago. Works in resources doing something involving tree harvesting in the summers. Winters he is off and just parties and collects EI. MakeSevern about 60k per year including the pogey.

Owns his house (35k house is not hard to own) and his pick up truck. Travels in the winter. Most of his after tax is discretionary income (spend it as you please)

Moral of the boring story? You figure it out.

Happy winter (for those of you who are staying here). I love frostbite

#51 Metaxa on 10.22.16 at 7:04 pm

Good idea. Let’s do it. — Garth

Its not a good idea, its a great idea, the greatest idea.

Send me your banking info and I’ll have my people look after it first thing Monday morning in the Atlantic City manner.

#52 Ace Goodheart on 10.22.16 at 7:13 pm

Re:Trump economics: Red necks are just wanna be 1% ers with Daddy issues. You can’t run a Country by catering to the 1%. It doesn’t work. Trickle down is a joke (look at Abu Dhabi and all those personalized islands owned by wealthy Americans – the 1% do not return their money to the general economy. This is a stupid theory that doesn’t work in practice. If you let these people rape your economy the money is gone, GONE you will never see it again).

The USA doesn’t need another little rich boy with Daddy issues to grow up in office. Hilary is not my favorite person but she is a mature adult who will behave in predictable ways. Trump is not.

I believe Hilary will win and I am very happy about that. She is the best candidate of the two by far.

Re: free University tuition: A bad joke on the poor. Free Tuition to US PUBLIC universities (they call them “Colleges”). The big private Schoils like Harvard and Princeton will still be charging 60k per year US to everyone.

#53 Ryan Lewenza on 10.22.16 at 7:15 pm

Mark “Good lord, Obama’s added over a trillion a year, and Hillary has, as is suggested, policies that aren’t markedly different from that of Obama’s. So why should her outcome be meaningfully better? Only $250B in new debt without absolutely massive spending cuts and a dramatic pick-up in the US economy (that somehow doesn’t cause an escalation/normalization of interest rates back to those typical of a vibrant and growing economy!)? Seriously, I’m on the floor laughing and milk is shooting out of my nostrils reading tripe like that from an organization that is obviously biased and partisan. No credibility whatsoever.”

Mark, I’m happy I could make you laugh so hard resulting in milk shooting out of your nose. President Obama is not running for President in this election. Clinton and Trump are. So we have to analyze their policies and platform. When Trump make’s huge cuts to personal and corporate tax rates that reduces tax revenues. At the same time he’s suggested large increases in defence spending to be offset by cuts in other areas. So this is a bit of a wash and therefore overall government spending will not be reduced materially. Therefore with significantly lower revenues and flat spending, deficits rise further adding to the debt. Numerous non partisan policy agencies have reviewed both Trump and Clinton’s economic policies and have all concluded the same that Trump’s policies will add a lot more debt than Hillary’s policies. That was the only point I was making. – Ryan L

#54 JSS on 10.22.16 at 7:20 pm

Maybe if Trump loses, he and Jason kenney can tag team the unite the right party in Alberta.

Lol

#55 Ronaldo on 10.22.16 at 7:21 pm

”Let’s just hope that there’s no last minute surprise by WikiLeaks or some Russian hackers that derail Hillary’s commanding lead over Trump.”
—————————————————————–
If there a surprise and it is shown that she is as corrupt as what is being suggested, why would the citizens of the U.S. want someone like that in power except that it may be good for the stock market?

#56 Orange on 10.22.16 at 7:22 pm

Someone is consuming exclusively mainstream media.

#57 Ryan Lewenza on 10.22.16 at 7:24 pm

Context “Welcome Sir Lew and just where are your stats from the States who have done the early voting? Surely a man of political expertise would have known this or did you forget to add this into your essay.”

Most of the reports I’ve read and seen on TV suggests early polling results tip in favour of Clinton. If true this supports our prediction for a Hillary win. – Ryan L

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/21/1585309/-Democrats-are-racking-up-some-good-early-voting-numbers

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/21/1585309/-Democrats-are-racking-up-some-good-early-voting-numbers

#58 AB Boxster on 10.22.16 at 7:25 pm

It pretty obvious that most economic performance that occurs in the first term of a new presidency are the result of policies in place in the previous term.
Take the Canadian experience as a good example.
It took the Harris conservatives years to undo the economic mess made by Peterson and Rea.
It will take the next conservative gov’t years to undo the mess made by McGuinty and Wynn.

Four more years of Democrat rule after 8 years of ineptitude by Obama may be irrepairable.

#59 Ryan Lewenza on 10.22.16 at 7:33 pm

Cloudy “I know the stock market behavior is what you’re concerned about, but isn’t the boost under democrats largely at the expense if long term growth and stability through spending and expanding debt?”

US debt rose from $5 trillion to $10 trillion under Bush and from $10 trillion to $19 trillion under Obama. Both parties are responsible for the massive debt load in the US. While under Obama the US economy has improved dramatically, his biggest failure has been the massive rise in US debt, which I will cover in a future blog post. But I do agree with you Cloudy, that Democrats (and Republicans) focus too little on the long-term, often just kicking the can down the road, for the next generation. – Ryan L

#60 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 7:34 pm

Been riding the elevators. One ding for up, two for down.

On the one dings. Crowded elevator. “I’m Canadian who you guys all voting for”, the yanks go T2

That say T2 ha ha ha. Then they ask who would you vote for”, I say Trump in a heat beat..

Every one smiles except for the chic with a crue cut.

Good thing I get off first as always..

I

#61 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 7:42 pm

Hot blond scalps one of my tickets. I give it to her for 20 bucks, face value mid one hundred and change.

Wife is looking for loot. I hit the atm honey I sold one for 300. I’ll watch the show, with the other ticket.

She says I love babe, I say I love you too.

I race back to the room to spray my head with colone, old man head smell, it’s a nasty if left un checked.

More up dates coming if I don’t fall flat on my face.

#62 Randy on 10.22.16 at 7:51 pm

Democrat rule ——-> 40 year Bubble. Smarten Up.

#63 Randy on 10.22.16 at 7:53 pm

Maybe you should read some Harry Dent Jr. It’s all about Demographics.

#64 Bernie Sanders should be President on 10.22.16 at 7:53 pm

Is anyone here going to foresee that the Canadian dollar appreciating against the United States dollar in 2017?

I don’t know how one blogger here insists that the Canadian dollar will jump from 75.0 cents to 80.0+ cents in a few months.

Is Justin Trudeau exporting his Sunny Ways & Gender politics abroad to make other countries dependent on deficit spending or what?

Canadian dollar might be in the 0.73-0.78 range for quite some time.

Anyone thinks it would go to above 80 cents, show me how that is possible unless Justin Trudeau turns every country into a femi-socialist utopia?

Bernie Sanders is a political Communist, but he ain’t no femi-socialist like Sunny Ways Trudeau.

#65 Bram on 10.22.16 at 8:07 pm

#1
L.O.L!

#66 Ace Goodheart on 10.22.16 at 8:07 pm

RE: US “defence” spendimg: the USA’s “defence”industry can be traced back to a curious little creature known as the British merchant marine.

What these folks did was essentially ensure that British merchant ships got where they were going and could trade without incident. Kind of a commercial shipping police protection program on an international scale. Any US military intervention is trade based. The idea is, protect your industry’s ability to make money internationally.

The US military is just the old British merchant marine on Crack. They are seriously hard core. They invade, depose governments, install US friendly dictators, all in the name of US industry, which needs these international places to co operate so they can do business and make a profit. It is just done on another level.

So if you hear a US president saying they want to fund the military they are really just saying “time to try to take over the world again”.

World domination is done by three countries anyway: USA, China and Russia. China does it with money. They will come in, buy everything, loan money to everyone, then start building infrastructure. Russia does it with finesse, schmoozing. They will wine and dine their way to power (and those weren’the our rockets – but we did pay for the party). USA does it with force and fear.

China is winning.

#67 Warren - the lagging indicator on 10.22.16 at 8:08 pm

The path is clear for rates in Canada to be cut to a quarter point and it just may happen but as in the 1999 rate divergence, Canada will quickly do an about face and track the Fed again late in 2017. Things will change and so will the outlook for interest rates and the Canadian economy especially with the US economy roaring back slowly and rising oil prices. In addition, I read that article implying 50 percent unemployment in Canada (crazy talk of course) but would you not think that the measure of unemployment may actually be less than the quoted 7 percent due to the negative stigma for people to state they are unemployed AND NOT looking for work for the participation rate survey? This would put them into the measured workforce as unemployed even though they actually have given up and opted out of the workforce.

#68 Blankfein is supportive on 10.22.16 at 8:13 pm

… but doesn’t want to hurt Hillary by endorsing.

#69 Cogent Arguments but... on 10.22.16 at 8:13 pm

Ryan, your arguments and research are great as always but for one flaw:

Relying on US MSM

They are definitely biased against Trump. I do not believe them at all especially when you read WikiLeaks reporting about their near manipulation of US MSM and biased polling data [DNC, Podesta et al].

Ohio is the bell weather to whom will win the election and by how much.

Trump & Hillary are neck and neck in Ohio.

Toss a coin.

bsant

#70 Electric universe on 10.22.16 at 8:26 pm

#28 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 5:25 pm
This is Shlongs biggest mistake. Shlong Zumanga = The Machine. Deep State. It’s in my book.

MSM constantly preaching Hillary in the leed. Trump losing support. Total bull vs Herdomoter reports.

If lazy millineals think it’s clinched, they won’t vote for Killary and will be out tail gating early.

Every committed Deplorable will vote cause they know 100% MSM is full of Crap

Epic backfire for Killary.

They should be saying it’s to close to call and help mobilize the young mind twisted.

But like all lefty loons it’s all about consensus and fitting in.

Even with rigged voting machines and bus loads of illegal voters.

Trump 58% to Hillary 42%

And that’s conservative.. Will be enough for electoral collage, don’t know.


Bet the farm 400:1usdmxn. You can’t lose. Show us you actually have a set. Bet it all ….you can buy Ecuador after. You’re never wrong. The electric herdometer is all knowing.

#71 ryan Lewenza on 10.22.16 at 8:26 pm

Rock Beats Paper “How statistically significant is your sample size? How often were we in the zero bound? How many times was the expansion 8 years old at the outset? How many times was the average medium stock’s trailing P/E at an all time record (~26)?”

My sample size was from 1945 to present over which time we’ve had 17 different Presidents. I agree that this is not a very robust sample size, but I believe a positive return in year 1 of 88% is meaningful. Keep in mind this is just one support for our bullish view into 2017, and we’re just trying to show that the outcome of the Presidential election can have an impact on stock returns. – Ryan L

#72 Context on 10.22.16 at 8:27 pm

#56 Sir Lew: I have a solid D for 200 and a lean D for 107 which gives a total of 307 D electoral votes. I have a solid R for 157 and a lean R for 22 which gives a total of 179 R electoral votes. The battle ground makes up a total of 52 electoral votes. Guess who is going to win the election?

#73 For those about to flop... on 10.22.16 at 8:37 pm

Below is a chart showing how white evangelicals are becoming more forgiving of politicians personal http://imgur.com/a/9dVFV

Personally, I don’t believe in God and looking at the candidates in the recent elections worldwide this suspicion has been confirmed…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/a/9dVFV

#74 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 8:53 pm

In the hall with a blond. Trump Trump Trump

Time to lose the obidance certificate… Smokey to become a legend.

The American Dream lives…

Zumanga your mine.

#75 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 8:55 pm

John still not on stage.. An hour after.. Acid trip. Been there done that.

Cash on the buds till then.

#76 not 1st on 10.22.16 at 8:59 pm

Umm, Garth said many times here sovereign debt doesn’t matter.

Don’t you guys talk?

#77 not 1st on 10.22.16 at 9:07 pm

And as side note, Obama added another 5 trillion to the Feds balance sheet as well from various bailouts and QE.

So democrats have presided over about 15 trillion in new debt in 8 yrs. No wonder why the economy responds better.

#78 Ace Goodheart on 10.22.16 at 9:08 pm

You folks with mortgages know you’re being screwed right? You know banks figured out that the times when you’re most likely to repay your debt is when interest rates fall (and you can refinance more cheaply). This left banks holding cash at times that they least wanted it.

So they created fixed rate mortgages. Pay before the due date and you owe all the interest up to the due date.

Read the fine print folks.

#79 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 9:24 pm

Jesus, Melencamp an hour late chips the audience, no pics aloud. Loser.

I walk out, a sexy blond next to me worshiping, famous fiction writer..

Wife is texting me, I need another 500. Shit I do for a happy home.

An hour without a drink and John chirps me.

Bye.

#80 Mr. Frugal on 10.22.16 at 9:30 pm

If you want to know who is going to win the election, ask some guy that wears coveralls to work, not a suit. No offense Ryan but you just don’t get it. Check out Facebook. Trump is worshiped by his followers. His last post has 1.2M views, 116K likes and 26.5K shares. Nobody likes Hillary. Nobody. Only 6% of americans trust MSM. It’s pitchforks and torches time in the USA. My money is on Trump.

#81 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 9:33 pm

No band at stir tonight.
Not coming back.

This is a bad Halloween joke I hope.

#82 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 9:39 pm

I’m my quest to find the American Dream.

It ain’t Hillary..

Bet accordingly. And Garth please buy your portfolio managers a Internet connection.

Force them to turn off MSM. It’s done and wrong.

#83 Coho on 10.22.16 at 9:49 pm

The real numbers show Trump at a 2:1 margin.
It will be a sad day for humanity when an overt criminal is s-elected the leader of the ‘not so free’ world. All principles go out the window if it means an extra dollar in one’s pocket. So sad, how far we’ve fallen. Better the devil you know is the mantra of cowards and losers.

#84 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 9:52 pm

Been going hard since 2pm

Can I make it to my room before this song ends

https://youtu.be/VyLY8YDWzrQ

#85 Deplorable Dude on 10.22.16 at 9:58 pm

James OKefelll releasing the 3rd in his series of investigative videos on Monday, directly linking Clinton to inciting violence at Trump rallies, not too mention proof of DNC voter fraud.

http://projectveritasaction.com

Watergate pales into insignificance to this stuff, but the MSN are all cucked and on her side.

Ohhh, and if you beleove the rumours…. Anonymous have the 33k deleted HRC emails and will be releasing them soon.

#86 Bobby13 on 10.22.16 at 10:09 pm

why not raise minimum wage to 50$ an hour cause the higher the better right? why does the government think they have the right to tell a business owner how much to pay their employees? It will result in more layoffs and again more work leaving the country. Debt will continue to explode higher as that is how this monetary system is designed. pretty soon a jug of milk is gonna cost 10$ hillary is a career criminal sad to think how poor quality of leadership is going forward both in canada and the us.

#87 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 10:15 pm

Deplorables
https://youtu.be/lDUwXFvTJfA

#88 Joe2.0 on 10.22.16 at 10:18 pm

“All around whack job Donald Trump”
Really?
How about psychopath liar Clinton?
Her and her husband are worth over a billion dollars.
She’s also a thief, check out wiki leaks regarding the Clintons charity amongst other things…
Pick you poison I guess.

#89 Mark on 10.22.16 at 10:43 pm

“77 Ace Goodheart on 10.22.16 at 9:08 pm
You folks with mortgages know you’re being screwed right? You know banks figured out that the times when you’re most likely to repay your debt is when interest rates fall (and you can refinance more cheaply). This left banks holding cash at times that they least wanted it.
So they created fixed rate mortgages. Pay before the due date and you owe all the interest up to the due date. “

Remember that banks must borrow every dime they lend out, and in Canada, they generally match their borrowing (ie: “deposits”, “GICs”, etc.) with their lending. So the bank gains no advantage through lending with loans that are adjustable on an over-night basis versus fixed terms up to 5 years.

Yes, Canadian banks generally structure their loans so that there are interest rate differentials payable if the rates fall. But remember that the bank remains “on the hook” to the GIC owners whom provided the funding to the bank for the mortgage loans in the first place. So while the bank may record a slight gain, it is definitely not the sort of windfall that you may imply.

Falling, not rising interest rates tend to be good for the banks, as low interest rates tend to bloat the notional valuations of assets. Gross margins in a low rate environment are also dramatically greater. A simple mathematical truth of dividing by a smaller denominator.

Insurers and pension funds, likewise, benefit from the falling rate environment. It is when rates rise that the “FIRE” sector will start to suffer serious problems, particularly if the rate increases are driven significantly by inflation. On the flipside, firms that possess irreplaceable physical plant financed with long-term fixed rate debt tend to do extremely well in the long-term rising rate environment.

#90 Fiendish Thingy on 10.22.16 at 10:43 pm

For the best polling analysis, go to Nate Silver’s site:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

He gives Trump about a 13% chance of winning.
Nate analyses ALL the polls, and has a transparent info page that summarizes the biases, sampling errors, etc.

#91 President Trump on 10.22.16 at 11:01 pm

Trump will be the next President. Look at Bill Still journalism on YouTube from the last few days and you will see why The Demon Clinton will lose.

#92 Smoking Man on 10.22.16 at 11:05 pm

Not me. My Heather In the book

https://youtu.be/6c75cOL0G8I

#93 Polls R Phake on 10.22.16 at 11:14 pm

TRUMP’S ANTI-CORRUPTION TO-DO LIST
1. Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress
2. Hiring freeze on federal employees to reduce the workforce through attrition
3. Requirement to eliminate two federal regulations for every new one
4. Five-year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists
5. Lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying for foreign governments
6. Complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections

#94 Mark on 10.22.16 at 11:15 pm

“I don’t know how one blogger here insists that the Canadian dollar will jump from 75.0 cents to 80.0+ cents in a few months.”

I didn’t give timeframes (so your claim isn’t strictly accurate), *but* as housing prices fall, so does consumer demand, particularly on the imported discretionary stuff. The highly leveraged families start to absolutely fear their next mortgage renewal, and start putting aside as much money as they can to make up for their falling equity. Banks, in recognition of falling RE prices, tighten up their credit terms and increase spreads when they are entitled to. When over 25% of Canada’s GDP depends upon housing in some form or another, there’s a lot of Canadians who also will be seeing their income cut due to falling RE prices and falling transactional volumes.

The end result is a dramatically higher savings rate. A higher savings rate drives strength in the currency in which savings or debt repayment occurs, by driving demand for the currency.

The other side of the equation, the US dollar, is set to weaken significantly as USD$ reserves are increasingly dumped. If the US becomes more protectionist, as promised by both Trump and Hillary in their election promises, there will be increasingly little reason for foreign nations to hold USD$. So tie Canadian debt deflation, with a significant up-tick in inflation and reserve dumping in the USD$, and you have the recipe for a much higher CAD$.

If you’ve been watching the CAD$ and USD$ yield curves over the past little while, the relative movements are also implying significant CAD$ appreciation. The 10-year CAD$ GoC bond is at 1.132% and falling. The 10-year USD$ T-Bond is at 1.72% and rising. A 60bp divergence is fairly significant and tells us that the market has pretty significant confidence in a CAD$ rebound.

#95 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central on 10.22.16 at 11:16 pm

So, Mr. Lewenza, I’ve yet to hear you or any of the other blog authors comment about Hillary’s gratuitously bellicose and antagonistic policies towards Russia – a nuclear armed power.

The Globalist Borg collective (whose interests and objectives Hillary is tasked with pursuing) seem to be pressing for confrontation with the non-aligned states like Russia, Iran, Syria and China. Just look at the dogma of the mainstream media – Washington Post, New York Times, the corporate cable news – all priming the population in a way that would make the Red Terror McCarthyites blush in the 1950s.

Can I press you Mr. Lewenza, for a comment on the possible economic impacts of exchanging several megatons worth of orbital, hypersonic, mid-course maneuvering ballistic missiles equipped with independently guided, multiple warheads, between Eurasia and North America?

Last week was the first time in my life where I experienced anxiety when I waved my family off at the airport, fearing I might not see them again.

Yes, we are that close. If you’re paying attention to the language used by the State Department and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, you might be alarmed.

#96 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.22.16 at 11:19 pm

Mark, your constant comments about a stronger CAD are nonsensical- you need to look at currency in domestic and international value and the ultimate test its value in terms of hard assets

This has turned out to be the correct interpretation. So far.

Excellent, now you know how everyone here feels when you post about the CAD$ and interest rates.

I wouldn’t be so harsh. Many people are married to their opinions long after they have been proven incorrect. We all have this flaw. At least he’s willing to admit that he has been incorrect on the CAD$ for the last 4 years. Most people would have stopped digging by now. Hopefully he didn’t lose too much on his ‘buying opportunity’.

I wouldn’t view what’s happening as anything but short-term cyclical weakness. And of course, a great buying opportunity in the CAD$, and a great shorting opportunity for USD$ stuff. Take out some loans in USD$, and pay them back with more valuable CAD$ in the not-so-distant future.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/hot-deal-canadian-dollar-loonie-sale-1434335/#p18149278

#97 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.22.16 at 11:21 pm

#88 Mark on 10.21.16 at 9:44 pm
This is ample reason to believe that the CAD$ is going much higher

At least this is consistent with the post 4 years ago.

“Fair value” for the CAD$ is far above $1 USD$ at this point given the wide disparity in the quality of our economies, and the significant amount of housing and debt deflation that is in our future. The recent weakness is transitory at best.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/why-cad-usd-dropped-so-much-1-year-1420560/3/#p17974291

#98 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.22.16 at 11:24 pm

Smoking Man drinks Jack and Mark drinks milk.

That’s a pretty strong endorsement for drinking Jack and avoiding milk.

#99 traderJim on 10.22.16 at 11:36 pm

I don’t quite understand people who get so emotionally invested in their ‘team’ winning an election. I don’t understand it with sports either, so I guess I am an oddball.

Incredible that the lefties now support the Wall Street endorsed puppet of billionaires, who lies even when the truth would serve her. Imagine her as a male Republican: she would be the devil reincarnate to the left. So funny how just a party affiliation makes people lose their minds.

WikiLeaks, the far left organization that for years exposed GW Bush, Gitmo, war crimes, etc., is now a pariah. How dare they tell the truth about ‘our team’.

Greenwald despises Trump with a passion, and is seething over this, pleading for Assange to dump the dirt on Trump.

Assange says he has some, but none of it as damning as what the Donald says in his speeches every day, so what’s the point?

You see, the Donald hasn’t been in politics for 30 years, so how could he be guilty of selling out his country or corruption? Unpossible (sic). Shoddy businesses, sure, but people expect that when you are a billionaire with a hand in everything.

Trump has some good ideas, some bad ones, and he seems very angry right now. People like that. To paraphrase Scott Adams, they want to push Trump into the White House and lock the doors so he can break all the furniture.

But Trump winning would be bad, I think. He would never get to implement a single one of his good ideas (NATO members pay own way, stuff like that), but his terrible ideas (somehow reverse Roe V Wade) would make it.

I’d much rather see him as a TV talk show guy, the new Rush Limbaugh. Those guys make bank, and have an enormous amount of influence. Untied from the restraints of the Republican party, Trump could show his true colours, more libertarian I suspect, not religious at all. Probably Pro abortion.

Hillary will get elected, and be the First Female President, to be impeached and thrown in jail. I will get a little bit of joy from that, might even toast to it.

Kaine may have troubles too by the sound of it. So my new prediction (information has changed): All hail President Bloomberg!

He’d be ok, as long as doesn’t try to stop me from drinking big slurpy’s, the paternalistic nitwit.

#100 Soviet Capitalist on 10.23.16 at 12:01 am

One observation from ex-USSR is that when taxes were lowered at the end of the 90′ in one ex-soviet country, budget revenues actually went up due to more businesses opening up and less tax evasion.

Clinton would normally win in any of the first three, but we’re in the Fourth Turning – anything can happen. It seems that Hillary represents all the injustice that could not be cleaned out in the first three turnings, while Trump embodies that radical change that has enough momentum to turn things around. No matter who wins, it will be just the beginning of the new story as people will require meaningful change this time. Let’s cross our fingers and hope that it brings a brighter future.

#101 TRT on 10.23.16 at 1:33 am

Anonymous

Just stated that Trump will win by a landslide.

wait and see.

#102 Wage Slave on 10.23.16 at 1:39 am

I live in Seattle and this new $15 minimum wage sucks, I don’t qualify for subsidized housing anymore. Or Snap cards. I can’t afford to pay rent and eat on $15 bucks an hour either but now I don’t get my subsidies. And I work at McDonald’s as a cashier, but they are installing self serve touch screens. They don’t work very well and are slow as can be, but I am sure they will fix them soon.

#103 hh on 10.23.16 at 2:15 am

@Metaxa

I’d be happy to help on that front. Sounds like fun.

#104 dr. talc on 10.23.16 at 2:25 am

here’s one for the children here who still think they have a government

What’s Wrong with the CETA Treaty?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WBKa2cue-4

#105 Coho on 10.23.16 at 5:43 am

Someone mentioned monarchies. What we have in the USA is a ‘Bananarchy’ — part monarchy, part banana republic. You have the Bush-Clinton tag team taking turns at president. Obama is just a puppet. Don’t know if his heart is as black as theirs. Maybe his hands were tied and he was ‘taken out to the woodshed’ the day of his inauguration.

Most of those allowed to reach the highest positions of authority can be blackmailed. This is why Hillary is above the law. She has the goods on all of those in key positions. This is how the ruling elite operates. Everyone they touch gets dragged down to their pitiful level. That is how they control people. Those they ‘let in’ are guilty of crimes and deviant behaviour, which is threatened to be exposed if they don’t play ball.

Bottom line is if she goes down, so does the shadow government which she brags as being the real power. Word has it that after her interview on the Today Show, after Lauer asked her an unexpected question about the bleached emails, she screamed that she wanted him fired and yelled at her staff to get their crap together because if Trump gets in they’ll all be hanging from lamp posts. Then called the head of the DNC, Donna Brazile the ‘N’ word. Yes, HRC is a nasty person who happens to be female.

With all of the WikiLeaks revelation, it is beyond me how anybody can support this woman, a warmonger criminal, who is above the law, who along with her handlers is bringing the world to the brink of global war in an attempt to score political points. She is gambling with millions of lives. Is this self-serving person the type of leader that America needs, especially at this crucial time? Is this the type of leader that is good for world peace and equity? Is this person likely to stop the spread of war and instability in the world?

#106 Ryan, stats? on 10.23.16 at 5:54 am

First of all, the entire statistical population of Presidents is 44.

Second, NYSE began in 1817. Now we are down 39 Presidents.

That represents 17/39 = 44% of the ENTIRE POPULATION.

On to more practicalities.

The SEC began in 1933. Arguably, not a “free and open market” until then. Before then stocks manipulated by a few, why the SEC came into being.

Now we are down to 11 Presidents, to FDRs time. You could argue start with Truman since most that would have engaged in the stock market were off to war.

From a practical stand point, pick either 10 or 11 Presidents.

So, at 10 to 17 Presidents you do not have a “sample”; rather, the:

ENTIRE POPULATION.

Thus, calculate away Ryan knowing you no longer need to justify sample sizes.

bsant

#107 Mark and Fractional Reserve Banking on 10.23.16 at 6:17 am

…in Canada, they generally match their borrowing (ie: “deposits”, “GICs”, etc.) with their lending.

Fractional reserve banking allows banks to keep only a fraction of their deposits while lending out the rest with interest to other clients.

The US has a 10% reserve requirement.

Canada has none.

bsant

#108 "We came, We saw, he died" *cackle* on 10.23.16 at 8:34 am

DELETED

#109 JG on 10.23.16 at 9:00 am

not you too. I thought CBC and CNN were biased. I didnt expect to get it from here too.

This comment ” According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Clinton now leads Trump by a commanding 6 points, and with only 2.5 weeks to go,” is selective. Check today. Trump leads or is tied in all major polls.

I don;t care for either, but when reporting please try to be unbiased, at least in appearance, as it will hurt your credibility. As of the 23rd,on the website you quote, IBD-Trump +2, LA Times- Tie and Friday Rasmussen Trump +2.

If you want to talk politics, lets talk wikileaks and the DNC. It sure has more credibility than people, 30 years later, deciding it is time to attack Trump. Time has a way of making our memories “fuzzy”.

I think you should be blogging on how we deal with the possibility of a Trump win.

#110 Smoking Man on 10.23.16 at 9:33 am

This sums up the herd.

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/elite-have-no-idea-society-near-breaking-point/ri17040

#111 Adam on 10.23.16 at 9:36 am

Ryan, for once try using “my” instead of “our”… “I” instead of “we”..
We think you’ll like it!!

#112 Ryan Lewenza on 10.23.16 at 9:45 am

Ryan, stats? “First of all, the entire statistical population of Presidents is 44. Second, NYSE began in 1817. Now we are down 39 Presidents.That represents 17/39 or 44% of the ENTIRE POPULATION.”

Not exactly sure what point your trying to make? That my analysis is not complete since I only use data going back to 1945 or that I’m misrepresenting the data to help support my views? I stated in the first line that they are electing the 45th President. I also stated since 1945 there were 17 Presidents with 8 Democrats and 9 Republicans. Then I just completed the analysis using the stats from 1945. Why 1945? This is post WW2 when the world changed dramatically from an economic, technological, and geopolitical perspective. So myself and many other economists/strategists often use this starting point when completing economic/market analysis. I do have the data and analysis going back much further with similar results, but as a strategist I often using data from 1945 for the reasons stated. Either way, I believe my analysis and conclusions are accurate with some predictive power. – Ryan L

#113 NoName on 10.23.16 at 10:03 am

#19 Debtslavecreator on 10.22.16 at 4:16 pm


“if against all odds Trump wins he will not take office. They will blame Russia for hacking the machines and hand the reins over to Biden or Obama will simply stay on”

Lets hope that scenario like that wont happen, because it wont end well, hope and trust are on all time low down south, only thing left that could “fix-it” and preserve status kwo is, trupm winning election. It will restore and bring some trust in to the system… and considering how little of his ideas he will be able to implement i thing that it no brainer for dem. to let him win. Guess they didnt learn anything from our elections.

I was never trupm guy but as elections are coming closer and egziaty and preshure, i can see uneducated nolife like me can be worming up to an idea of trupm for a president, the devil you know than the devil you don’t know…
But on another hand what do i know, i am just an electrician, i ent no SME on us politics, (subject mater expert).

As i sad back in feb trupm would make good dictator.
What is most interesting is to se trupms suporters notion that market is always more efficient than gov. we know how that efficiency worked out for all of them in 2008, but that is story for another day.

When you actualy turn on frontal lobe and turn off paretial parts of brain there is only one conclusion that there is no diference between dangerous doland and little potato.

from “self made myth” book, you feell the blanks.

From the moment of his birth, ______ was set up for success. The large inheritance left to him by his father, coupled with the contributions and the protections of society and the _____ government made his ascension to the ____________ almost inevitable. Nevertheless, _____ fails to recognize this phenomenon and continues to express his belief that he did it alone.

////////

#93 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central on 10.22.16 at 11:16 pm

Last week was the first time in my life where I experienced anxiety when I waved my family off at the airport, fearing I might not see them again.

Turn on you frontal lobe!

i do read books ocasionaly.

#114 Ryan Lewenza on 10.23.16 at 10:14 am

South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central “Can I press you Mr. Lewenza, for a comment on the possible economic impacts of exchanging several megatons worth of orbital, hypersonic, mid-course maneuvering ballistic missiles equipped with independently guided, multiple warheads, between Eurasia and North America?”

Sorry this is a topic that I’m not very knowledgeable about. I know that Russia has ended its agreement with the US over the disposition of Russian enriched Uranium in response to sanctions over Ukraine/Crimea. I suspect your referring to that. If so I would say that Putin is a ruthless thug who is trying desperately to reassert Russia power/dominance in the world, greatly escalating global tensions. And I don’t think Trump is the answer to this problem. I think it’s crazy that Trump is going against decades of political protocol in dealing with Russia basically saying that Putin is a strong leader that he respects and wants to deal with. And he’s doing this largely because of his ego as he believes Putin respects him. Imagine Romney, McCain, or a Bush saying the things Trump is saying in past elections. I’m not saying Obama and soon to be Hillary’s approach with Putin is ideal, but I don’t believe Trump would be the solution to the escalating tensions between Russia and the world. I say the world since it’s not just Russia against the US. Most nations stand united against Putin and his transgressions. – Ryan L

#115 Ryan Lewenza on 10.23.16 at 10:27 am

Joe2.0 “All around whack job Donald Trump”
Really? How about psychopath liar Clinton?”

I totally agree that Hillary is a liar and that the Clinton’s have a lot of hair to them. Agree 100% on this point! But I also think Trump is a “whack-job” and not fit to be the President. Now this is just my own personal opinion, which was not the focus on the blog. The main point of the blog post was to 1) layout the case that Hillary will likely be the next President, 2) outline and analyze the economic impact of her policies, and 3) discuss the market implications of a Hillary win. The last item was really the main point I was trying to make since my strength/expertise is in forecasting the markets, and managing client money. – Ryan L

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.16 at 10:39 am

@#87 Joe 0.2 IQ
“Her and her husband are worth over a billion dollars.
********************************************
Soooo, apparently they arent allowed to be rich and Trump is?

She posted her income tax records for the past 10 years like every other Presidential candidate over the past 40 years including an impeached President (Nixon) and that makes her a liar.

Trump hasnt offered up any tax records but he’s “amazing”. Whats HE hiding?

Apparently “denial” isnt just a river in Trump-ville.
Cold hard facts ( not internet fantasy provided by anti Trump republicans that produce propaganda drivel know as “Clinton Cash” like Dinesh D’Souza a convicted liar and ex convict)
But I’m wasting my breath here arent I .
All you Trumpoids only believe Trump good , Hillary evil.
We’ll see what the future brings and if brings a Trump Presidency , just remember…you supported that lying, groping, racist, used car salesman.
Melania Trump “Vill Velcome you to de Vite House Vit open arms”
Ugh.

#117 Future Expatriate on 10.23.16 at 10:39 am

Yes, but you don’t get it!! A Trump Presidency is going to make their paranoid gold hoards quadruple in value overnight!!!

Vote Trump!!

You can. All you want. It won’t matter. He’s losing in a landslide.

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.16 at 10:49 am

@# 104 Ryan, stats?

If you want a coherent answer from the blog host.

You have to ask a coherent question OR learn english composition.
A schizophrenic paranoid drug addled chimpanzee chained to a typewriter could elucidate his banana overdosed ravings with more eloquence than that…. AND entertain himself by flinging poo at you.
Yeesh.

#119 Renter's Revenge! on 10.23.16 at 11:02 am

#109 Adam on 10.23.16 at 9:36 am
Ryan, for once try using “my” instead of “our”… “I” instead of “we”..
We think you’ll like it!!

Do you mean Ryan will like it, or Ryan + whoever is included in we will like it? lol

Ok, seriously, I always wondered why all financial commentators use we instead of I? Is it because it lends them more credibility (as in, it’s not just me who thinks this, so I’m not crazy, etc.)? It just comes across as a cheap psychological trick, like “authority in numbers” or something.

#120 OttawaMike on 10.23.16 at 11:18 am

@112 Ryan Influenza

Hillary’s drum beats towards Russia signals a new cold war.
I much prefer a candidate who favours negotiation and reconciliation.
Besides, China is playing a much larger role in challenging America’s hegemony and imperialist empire. But then America is beholden to her for trillions so that maintains a mutual understanding.

#121 Shawn on 10.23.16 at 11:19 am

Canadians need to prepare for unprecedented USD strength (i.e. $CAD weakness) in the coming years. Canadians are not doing enough to diversify into US assets of all classes ($US, US equities, US bonds, US real estate, etc.). Canadians must invest in US assets and exit Canadian assets now.

#122 Context on 10.23.16 at 11:22 am

#112 Sir Lew:- Russia has made no transgressions whatsoever as you are out of context. It was the NATO nations who initially instigated a need for war which was planned by the USA back in the 1990’s. Putin was a peaceful man but when he saw this plan materialize he had no choice for the sake of Russia to fight back against this deception to destroy his country.

#123 Berniebee on 10.23.16 at 11:39 am

#27 Milenial and #85 Bobby13 RE: Minimum Wage

Yeah, let’s bring minimum wage down. Way down.

Good for the owners of Home Depot, Mcdonald’s, Walmart and call centers.

And a teaching moment for cooks, waiters, cashiers, child care workers, hotel employees, security guards, nursing aids, call center workers, farm workers and retail workers.
You know they were getting all uppity with calls for fair wages. Not our fault if they can’t get a decent job.

Good for bringing down other wages too. A lot of wages in the trades could come way down. The more people that make less money, the richer the business owners get, and that’s better for the economy, right?

Though it will get a little annoying seeing so many beggars squeegeeing car windows at busy intersections, it will be comforting to know you can get a cheap hotel room.

#124 non partisan on 10.23.16 at 11:41 am

To those of you say the MSM is biased and slanted to Hilary, here are some videos to muse about:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbA5RE9eK08

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWqa2EIBAxY

Also, calling the Trump leaked tape a “sex scandal” and a “sex tape” is beyond silly. Bill Clinton had a sex scandal…and i’m not sure what a sex tape is if it doesn’t have, you know, sex in it!

This is beyond stupid. You guys are tin foil-wrapped nutbars. — Garth

#125 BobC on 10.23.16 at 11:50 am

Educated people understand there’s 2 sides to every issue and listens to both. With the bashing of Trump on here I’m sure only one side is broadcast in Canada.
Here on CNN is the other side that I hope a few will consider.

Check out this video on YouTube:

https://youtu.be/zjLVFQBexqI

#126 Rainclouds on 10.23.16 at 12:10 pm

#87 Joe 2.0

Time for an upgrade to 3.0 Joey boy.
Current Version is defective………….

Dont let easily attainable facts get in the way of your incoherent feckless prattle. Does that make you a “psychopath liar ” as well ?

http://moneynation.com/hillary-clinton-net-worth/

#127 Harbour on 10.23.16 at 12:28 pm

Now a Porn star comes forward saying Trump made sexual advances toward her. LOL

https://www.yahoo.com/news/adult-film-actress-claims-donald-trump-made-sexual-222912021.html

#128 Terry on 10.23.16 at 12:33 pm

All you Democrats, Liberals and Hillary supporters still don’t get it!

I’ll say it again one more time for the record……….Trump will win the popular vote and will also win 300+ Electoral College Delegate votes on Election day!

PS.

A Liberalized following trend, it’s lies and accompanying increasing taxation, carbon taxes etc… for everyone in this world is one of the biggest frauds and hoodwinks that has ever been pulled over the eyes of so many hundreds of millions people at any time in history.

#129 For those about to flop... on 10.23.16 at 12:38 pm

This is beyond stupid. You guys are tin foil-wrapped nutbars. — Garth

///////////////////////

At least they will stay fresh…

M42BC

#130 Millenial on 10.23.16 at 12:39 pm

Hey Ryan,
Would war with Russia be bullish or bearish for the S&P500?

#131 jess on 10.23.16 at 12:52 pm

vertical neighborhood nightmare

tilting and listing millenium tower san fran 58 stories

engineering whodunit, a slow-motion real estate calamity, and also a civic cautionary tale.

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-leaning-tower-20161019-snap-story.html

#132 Smoking Man on 10.23.16 at 1:07 pm

This is beyond stupid. You guys are tin foil-wrapped nutbars. — Garth
………….

Deplorables

#133 traderJim on 10.23.16 at 1:10 pm

#114 fartz whines about racism and finishes his diatribe disparaging an immigrant for their accent.

Pretty much sums up the typical ‘progressive’.

Fartz sounds much like Hillary, who pretends to be a moderate, but who has credible witnesses (one is a chef who has his photo taken with her at a dinner) documenting her racist rants towards black staff. You will never see it on cnn, so I guess it can’t be true.

FBI documents released reveal that she is such a terrible person to work for that all senior Secret Service agents try to avoid it and force juniors to be on her detail.

26,000 private emails from her friends and supporters released, yet not one positive word spoken about her. Quite the opposite actually.

Now, Trump may be a terrible person, I don’t really know him, and I understand those not supporting him, but you have to be disturbed by someone who is ‘pro’ Hillary. Blind allegiance to a label. I don’t get it.

A rational person has allegiance to the right ideals and to the person who upholds them.

Really can’t stand the ‘my party right or wrong’ attitude on both sides.

Trump really being from neither corrupt side has my sympathy, even though he can be a vindictive ass, so I could never give him my unqualified support. And you cannot help but admire a guy willing to destroy his valuable brand in this cause. I would think, conservatively, this election has cost him a billion or two. Hillary has not spent a dime of her own money.

Once again, fascinating to watch the psy ops at play in this election, with Hillary managing to paint Trump as a racist monster, and Trump managing to paint Hillary as a criminal.

So far, evidence is piling up that Trump is more correct, but people who only get their ‘news’ from cnn will probably hold their noses and vote for the hated criminal instead of the boogey man.

#134 Karma on 10.23.16 at 1:18 pm

Trump is such a effin loser.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/31/the-new-yorker-endorses-hillary-clinton

#135 Smoking Man on 10.23.16 at 1:46 pm

Copy paste from a twitter articles.

The release by Wikileaks of the Democratic National Convention’s internal emails has been a devastating blow to the liberal notions of process, merit and consensus. It has triggered wild deflections within the commentariat and the political class, filling columns and airtime with Glenn Beck-style conspiracies involving fascists, Russians and socialist useful idiots. The emails demonstrate what was self-evident to any impartial observer of the Democratic primary process: that faced with an insurgent social democratic outsider, neoliberal party officials closed ranks and conspired to undermine Sanders’ campaign, relying on a pliant media to accomplish this task. For a party convinced of its own progressive bona fides and who spent the campaign scolding Sanders supporters as cranks or entitled ‘bros’ silencing women and people of colour, this is surely an intolerable hypocrisy. Yet in the face of this corruption, liberals cling to their sense of merit and technocratic, process-oriented superiority.

Source? — Garth

#136 BS on 10.23.16 at 2:03 pm

For those who like conspiracy theories here is a good one. Martin Armstrong claims they won’t allow Trump to take the White House regardless of the vote.

There are two scenarios running around behind the curtain. I reported the one that Obama would declare martial law, suspend the constitution and remain in the presidency declining to allow Hillary or Trump to take the throne, he would step aside and hand it to Joe Biden. Some counsel that is too extreme. Others are proposing that Obama still blame Russia, but then throw it to the Congress by means of the electoral college and that way keep it under the pretense of being constitutional. Any way you cut it, this does not look like they will allow Trump to take the White House regardless of the vote.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/martial-law-or-electorial-college/

#137 Millenial on 10.23.16 at 2:18 pm

#121 Berniebee on 10.23.16 at 11:39 am
I’m not saying we should lower the minimum wage. I’m saying that a 60% minimum wage hike ( US$7.25 per hour to US$12 as Lewenza reported) would cause mass layoffs.

Example. I never eat at McDonalds: all their food gives me diarrhea or constipation. But I found myself inside a McDonalds for the first time in a long time last weekend. Was in Bracebridge Ontario and needed a coffee; i determined the best place to get an americano was at McDonalds. I actually placed my order on a touchscreen device and paid with my debit card. I waited, and the person who made my drink placed it on a counter, and i knew it was mine because my number came up on an LED screen. There’s only two cashier stations there now, there used to be I think 6 of them. I was amazed at the efficiency of this operation.

Another example is at newly renovated Wendy’s restaurants. They have a sophisticated beverage dispenser that you do yourself.

You can close your eyes and pretend that raising minimum wage is gonna be good for workers, but the reality is you can’t squeeze blood from a stone. For everybody who gets a raise, somebody will get fired.

#138 Smoking Man on 10.23.16 at 2:50 pm

The Source as requested

https://overland.org.au/2016/08/trump-fascism-putin-and-wikileaks-the-anatomy-of-a-liberal-nervous-breakdown/

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.16 at 2:56 pm

@#131 traderJimBob
“disparaging an immigrant for their accent.”
********************************************
Now who’s racist.
She’s not an immigrant. She’s a US citizen with an annoying accent……….

“Blind allegiance to a label. I don’t get it….”
*******************************************
but blind allegiance to Trump is ok.

“I would think, conservatively, this election has cost him a billion or two”
********************************************
No actually he’s earned about $5 billion in free publicity for his next TV series called “Celebrity Mysogynist”

“evidence is piling up that Trump is more correct…”
********************************************
Well, when your “source” is Wikileeks” and the Russian Govt…..sure……… whatever.
I’ll stick with the BBC, The Economist, The New York Times, etc etc etc . All credible news agencies that have to check their sources before publishing lest they riask defamation suits.

Trumps supporters are 90 % white and 65% dont have a post secondary education. A voter minorty. He’s toast

Angry and disillusioned in a changing world where simplistic messages about “us” vs “them” have a base appeal even when it doesnt make any logical sense.
“We’re gonna build a Wall!” Mindless drivel lapped up by the braying multitudes “Lock Her up! Lock her up!” mob.
Sad but predictable.

“Deplore rabble” unite!

#140 traderJim on 10.23.16 at 3:03 pm

#1 DJT

best comment of the thread, lol!

#141 conan on 10.23.16 at 3:03 pm

Trump has made a mess of himself and his business brand.

He needs an incredible Jenga move to insure his business does not implode.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aS10mmDvDCs

#142 Shawn on 10.23.16 at 3:31 pm

https://www.engadget.com/2016/10/08/germany-wants-combustion-engine-ban/

Expect other countries to follow suit. Oil will go the way of salt.

#143 Exilled on 10.23.16 at 3:33 pm

Sir Garth:
Where do you put your menu for the Store? Is it not on line, yet? For i am the Pie Man! I am not being rude. Just asking!!

Go and find out. Menu changes daily, as everything is made by hand by Amazons. — Garth

#144 robert james on 10.23.16 at 3:46 pm

This is for the Trump supporters… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEKUIOURVRw

#145 Polls R Phake on 10.23.16 at 3:55 pm

The CNN video they did not show you after the last debate. Remember this was the last debate with two previous ones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfGf11D1vg0

Heretofore Polls R Phake

#146 Looney Baloney on 10.23.16 at 3:55 pm

Source? — Garth

https://overland.org.au/2016/08/trump-fascism-putin-and-wikileaks-the-anatomy-of-a-liberal-nervous-breakdown/

Written by: “Olivier Jutel, a lecturer in broadcast journalism at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji.” Seriously? — Garth

#147 Context on 10.23.16 at 4:15 pm

I doubt very much if there will ever be a war. USA doesn’t have the will; the boots needed on the ground; the money; has never won a real war in decades; never fought a superpower; Russia and China have signed a mutual defense agreement; and USA does not have the war making technology. Russian technology alone is decades ahead with China keeping up. It is a war that USA cannot ever win and if it ever goes hot the outcome will be nasty if Russian ever releases the Satan missiles for example.

#148 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.23.16 at 4:15 pm

If trump wins I’m gonna be eating so much crow

Will taste fowl

#149 my house is my friend on 10.23.16 at 4:26 pm

#112 Ryan Lewenza on 10.23.16 at 10:14 am
” If so I would say that Putin is a ruthless thug who is trying desperately to reassert Russia power/dominance in the world, greatly escalating global tensions.”

Yeah! Russia wants war. Look how close they put their country to our military bases!
https://imgur.com/gallery/UzaEGyw

#150 Wait There on 10.23.16 at 5:00 pm

Keep an eye on Pence down the road regardless of what happens this election cycle.

#151 Context on 10.23.16 at 5:03 pm

Sir Lew needs to research a bit harder and he can start by reading the document called Project For The New American Century dated 1997. In this document it clearly stated they needed a New Pearl Harbor or a trigger mechanism to kick start it all with the people backing the upcoming wars. Then the big event happened in 2001 and 10 days later a 4 Star General who is respected worldwide walked into the Pentagon asking questions. There is a video up which explains the discussion in his own words 7:36 minutes long. Months later the General recalls a meeting in 1991 at the Pentagon were they wanted war with Russia and he met with Paul Wolfowitz at the time. Sir Lew has a lot to learn in the world of politics as he has many dots to connect.

#152 NoName on 10.23.16 at 5:50 pm

#145 Context on 10.23.16 at 4:15 pm

you are wrong, russ a is years probably decades behind us when it comes to mil. tech. i see eplee like you all over the internet russ a this and that. do some reading on all people that sold secrets to cccp and how that worked out for them in russ a is so good that snowaden wants to come home. i gues he cant keep up with tech over there…
Russia dont want war they wont 100$ oil. you would think put in would tacke lawless in its own backyard. distracted people are very entertaining.

https://youtu.be/J2Dl2QLkKOs

#153 Fish on 10.23.16 at 5:59 pm

It amazing, they are together on this, meanwhile Canada is still not happening, oh yeah the housing bust? Meanwhile new codos are vacant? Not for long I guess we will be having more people into the country

#154 DisgustMadeMePost on 10.23.16 at 6:13 pm

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/curious-undecided-went-for-trump/

Who knows what America is thinking…

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.16 at 6:14 pm

@#147 my house is my homeless

You missed this Russian base.

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37591756&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwivjOjG-fHPAhVU02MKHRdmAzUQFghIMAw&usg=AFQjCNH5V8QAtWQFJIugqx3CEKypTRCMGA

Coming to a Hemisphere near you.

#156 Dual Citizen In Canada on 10.23.16 at 6:15 pm

Trump has some good ideas but he is the wrong person for the job. In this case I blame the messenger, Trump. And for that reason, I’m out.

#157 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central on 10.23.16 at 7:48 pm

@#112 Ryan Lewenza

Thanks for your thoughts.

#158 Seriously on 10.23.16 at 7:48 pm

Source? — Garth

https://overland.org.au/2016/08/trump-fascism-putin-and-wikileaks-the-anatomy-of-a-liberal-nervous-breakdown/

Written by: “Olivier Jutel, a lecturer in broadcast journalism at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji.” Seriously? — Garth

At lease the guy is not a staple on WoPo, NYT, CNN, Hufpo – and on Hillary’s secret puppet “journalists” list as we learn more an more names from Wikileaks.

Strangely you never condoned or belittled any of those. Seriously.

#159 Marcus on 10.23.16 at 7:52 pm

“Let’s just hope that there’s no last minute surprise by WikiLeaks or some Russian hackers that derail Hillary’s commanding lead over Trump.”

More socialists wanting to get a Marxist elected. I am constantly amazed at how much Canadians are wrapped up in an American election where they understand so little of what is at stake.

#160 my house is my friend on 10.23.16 at 8:49 pm

#153 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.16 at 6:14 pm

Those damn Ruskies, they invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, Libia,Syria, serbia….Oh wait…. that was somebody else!

Maybe if you read something besides just looking at the pictures you might learn something.

#161 #106 "We came, We saw, he died" *cackle* on 10.24.16 at 8:35 am

#106 “We came, We saw, he died” *cackle* on 10.23.16 at 8:34 am

DELETED

Long time reader, rarely comment.
Deleted without explanation (#)

The name I posted under says it all anyway.
Typical.

Deleted as it had zero to do with the blog content, and was wildly out of context. Take your political agenda elsewhere. — Garth

#162 Tim P on 10.24.16 at 2:57 pm

an untrustworthy career political hack

You got the Donald description 100% correct but you should apologize to the ‘reasonable’ readers for calling Hillary a hack.
She is far from that “Donaldish” remark. She may have issues BUT she is the best choice.
Those who support Donald fall into the uneducated white trash category. Not too late too get some more education, though.