Leadership

treasurer-modified

In case you were diverted watching Donald Trump’s butt being handed to him, you may have missed this. There’s big news to report from the Bank of Canada.

Our central bankers announced their latest thinking on interest rates this week, as the Canadian economy slumps. If we’re lucky, growth this year will be a hair over 1%. Not much of a rebound after that, either, with 2% expansion (they hope) in each of the next two years. It’s a dismal thing, for sure. If oil fades again, we might have a recession on our hands.

Meanwhile, says the bank, the mortgage changes which came into effect Monday will make it worse. The economy will sag as a result, since housing makes up a bigger portion of the economy than the entire manufacturing sector – plus oil and gas. Everybody (except homeowners in Vancouver and Toronto) now expect a serious fizzle to occur as mucho moisters are kept from indenturing themselves to buy crap houses at bloated prices.

This was the backdrop to a presser given by central bank boss Stephen Poloz. Half an hour before he started, financial markets put the odds of the bank cutting its key rate at 0%. An hour later they were 20% for a cut by January and 25% for one by the spring of 2017.

“Given the downgrade to our outlook, the governing council actively discussed the possibility of adding more monetary stimulus at this time, in order to speed up the return of the economy to full capacity,” Poloz said. Translation: geez, we almost did it, so watch out. While most economists had figured the mortgage bomb Ottawa dropped would allow Poloz to hold the line on rates, he told us something different. Things are worse than you think.

“The federal government’s new measures to promote stability in Canada’s housing market are likely to restrain residential investment,” the Big P added, “while dampening household vulnerabilities.” It means the central bankers actually believe they can reduce interest rates (mortgage costs along with them) and Canadians will not react because of the new regs unveiled this week. Whatever they’re smoking in Ottawa must be good.

Meanwhile markets are giving almost 70% odds that the US Fed will raise its benchmark rate on December 14th. The chances of that went up further Wednesday night when it became more evident American economic policies won’t be changing after the November election. If the Fed does what markets anticipate, there will be two more rate hikes south of us in 2017.

What does this mean? Plenty.

First, if Poloz chops our national bank rate from 0.5% to just a quarter-point, while the Yanks are moving in the opposite direction, we’ll get a dollar at 69 cents or less. That could be reality by the end of the year, or certainly in late winter. If it happens, you’ll wish you had made some US-dollar investments when the loonie was lofty at 76 cents. (Actually, you should always have about 20% of your portfolio in USD.)

Second, this is a bad environment in which to be loaded up on maple. The fact remains a vast majority of Canadian investors have 100% of their wealth in Canadian assets. Traditional bank-owned brokerages are still guiding their clients into huge weightings in moose-and-beaver stuff, heavy on domestic bank stocks, for example. Well, if growth is merely 1% this year with housing taking a whack, is that so smart?

Third, a rate cut by Poloz after Wild Bill’s mortgage mayhem, could negate the bubble-pricking intent in the last two delusional markets, while clobbering everywhere else. After all, no country cuts rates if things are going well – and as the loonie sinks, inflation will roar. Remember $8 cauliflowers? In places where speculators and house-horny millennials don’t move markets (which is everywhere outside of the GTA and Van orbs), none of this is good news. But in our gasbag cities, any rate cut will be seized upon by realtors and the Re/Max marketing machine as proof the meanies in Ottawa didn’t actually mean it.

Well, the jury’s out. National Bank economists say the next Poloz move will be up. Macquarie says the opposite. Capital Economics claims rates will be trimmed again because real estate is goin’ down.

Obviously, nobody knows. Not even Poloz. He’s making this up as he goes along. Inspiring.

191 comments ↓

#1 house of cards on 10.20.16 at 7:01 pm

No different than the US…sub 2% growth, with growth forecasts continually being reduced. The Fed only wants to raise rates because of optics…and so that they have some bullets for the future.

#2 Mr Reality on 10.20.16 at 7:01 pm

For thise with no debt, rates do not matter.

Mr R

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.16 at 7:01 pm

Time to sink some more canuck pesos into the US buck I reckon

#4 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Field HQ on 10.20.16 at 7:02 pm

Garth, I feel you’re somewhat out of touch with what we in the deplorable underclass see in Trump. These are the musings of a Russian historian/author, but they echo my thoughts (much more elegantly):

“I would be happy if Trump wins, because his victory would be very symbolic. That would be proof in practice, that the monopoly on power in the United States (US) – an absolutely great country, could be broken by an ordinary person because in terms of the establishment of the US, Trump is an ordinary man, despite being a millionaire, an eccentric, and he has even been married to Slavic women, which is the tip of the eccentricities in the Anglo-Saxon world, but he is an absolute outsider to the high elite of America. So, here we have the question of principle: can an ordinary miserable outsider (bad unclear origin, laughable education, non-prestigious background, “new vulgar money,” he has not built any library or church or cultural centre, he does not speak French, he is not even gay etc.) enter the Bohemian grove in the world that defines the future of the great country? And it really is a very narrow and closed world of several thousand people with tribal traditions, cultural ancestry, old families and “old great, albeit invisible, money.” Literally, a few hundred families coordinate for years ahead who will be next. And suddenly, here comes some Trump. How vulgar!…” Vatsev

https://southfront.org/hillary-will-make-the-eu-the-51st-us-state/

#5 don't you remember on 10.20.16 at 7:05 pm

For years, every housing bull / apologist on this blog has stated that only a significant rise in interest rates could lower Canadian residential RE prices.

Well, the new mortgage qualifying policy has done just that in spades!

So what rationalization(s) are you housing bulls spouting now ?

#6 BigQ on 10.20.16 at 7:06 pm

I call rate cut.

#7 david on 10.20.16 at 7:09 pm

Garth,

Doesn’t Canada follow US fed interest rates 94% of time? If we’re expecting a likely interest rate increase on December 14, I would expect that Bank of Canada will have little choice but to hold rates (for as long as possible) but then eventually increase rates in Canada.

Correct. — Garth

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.16 at 7:09 pm

@#106 james
Re: Smoking Man.
“To bad this one craps all over the house, pisses on the furniture, eats anything that hits the floor, chases his tail, licks himself uncontrollably and continuously chases cars…….”
********************************************
You forgot.
“……and drags his itchy bum across the new livingroom carpet when there’s guests, all while panting and staring ……”

Yep thats our Smokey and we luv him.

#9 Penny Henny on 10.20.16 at 7:10 pm

Second, this is a bad environment in which to be loaded up on maple. -Garth

////////////////////

Garth count me as confused. Not more than two weeks ago ago you said to ‘not neglect the maple’?

BTW where is my $33.70

A balanced & diversified portfolio means never exiting an asset class. Just have the correct weighting. How hard is that to grasp? — Garth

#10 The Nature Boy on 10.20.16 at 7:11 pm

“In case you were diverted watching Donald Trump’s butt being handed to him,”

Wow. The post’s first sentence.

FYI Garth, CNN is hiring. You will get a job either there or with MSNBC.

#11 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 10.20.16 at 7:12 pm

yep
on all accounts Garth

#12 LJ on 10.20.16 at 7:15 pm

Buckle up, this ride is going to get rough.

#13 Dave on 10.20.16 at 7:15 pm

In the last ten years there has been no significant correction in the largest cities in Canada. With the government refusing to crack down on speculation and money laundering, other than some minor measures for optics and with interest rates expected to stay relatively low for the foreseeable future, we should expect no major decline in house prices.
Even if the Yanks raise rates they will keep them far below the long term averages, simply because growth is anemic.

#14 Penny Henny on 10.20.16 at 7:16 pm

I have a question for those who would like to weigh in.
Yellen recently said that the US of A might toy with the idea of an overheated economy.
I read this as a question mark as to whether rates will rise in December or will they wait to raise rates until inflation is pushing 4%?

My feeling is that the regular Joe on the street is scared to start spending, it’s as if the recovery has not reached them yet.

#15 The real Kip on 10.20.16 at 7:16 pm

There will be no Fed rate hike in December and certainly no Bank of Canada rate hike for all of 2017.

#16 When Will They Raise Rates? on 10.20.16 at 7:18 pm

If the government and the BoC did nothing – as in nothing EVER, including CMHC, etc.. – and left natural market forces to their own devices, we would all be far better off.

I laugh watching the incompetent fools try to manage an entire economy when half (I’m being generous) of their assumptions are wrong.

#17 Smartalox on 10.20.16 at 7:20 pm

Rate cut? No Problem.

The government just announced its plans for an ‘infrastructure bank’ that will issue bonds that pay (maybe) twice the going interest rate. Given Canadian business’ reluctance to consider anything that might be a risk, why wouldn’t they plow their idle dollars into rebuilding Canadian highways, railroads and power grids? Pipelines?

And the foreigners can buy in too. (Note the recent partnership with the Chinese infrastructure bank) Why not? Good old politically stable Canada: it’s not like those infrastructure investments will be reduced to rubble by wars, etc., right?

The rate cut will make these bonds look like cake in comparison, to investors, and banks.

Under-skilled schmoes will get fluoro-vest jobs, auto dealers will sell pick up trucks, it’ll be beautiful, believe me.

Only one thing: wasn’t the lure of cheap infrastructure bonds what inspired Europe to flood its cities with ‘modern conveniences’, and prop up non-competitive industries, only to have their citizens balk at paying the bills a few years later?

And isn’t their economy like 10 times the size of Canada’s? Shaving a few points of the bond rate may help, but Canada’s going to have to invest very wisely if they’re going to make this work.

#18 Polls R Phake on 10.20.16 at 7:22 pm

The best line I have heard from the debate so far is Hillary’s grandma smile.

#19 I don't know! on 10.20.16 at 7:25 pm

Someday, Garth will be proven to be correct about rising rates. But I’m not holding my breath.

#20 Ex-Cowtown on 10.20.16 at 7:25 pm

A 0.25% rate cut is irrelevant to the real world. It just underlines how out of touch central bankers are. In some countries rates went negative and savers still continued to save.

If an investor thinks that he or she is likely to lose more money investing it taking a tiny loss saving it, they would save. It’s all a relative perception of risk and reward; 100% to -100% is a continuum; the concept of zero really means nothing. It’s all about confidence.

For the record, I called negative interest rates back in 2009. My neighbor (VP at one of the Big Banks) laughed and said it was impossible. I told him it matters not at all; it’s all just numbers and numbers don’t care.

#21 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 10.20.16 at 7:32 pm

He’s making this up as he goes along. Inspiring.

So is she…

#22 nonplused (hic) on 10.20.16 at 7:34 pm

Obama to Trump: “Stop whining it is impossible to rig US elections”.

Obama and Hilary to the US media: “The Russians are rigging the US elections.”

Those pesky Russians must have developed the famed “improbability drive” from the Hitchhiker’s Guide To the Galaxy series.

So, if Trump wins (which he will by a landslide Hillary and the establishment are so disliked) then it’s the Russians doing the impossible and rigging the elections (According to Hillary and Obama). But if Hillary wins then it is the establishment doing the impossible and rigging the elections (according to Trump).

My Dog no wonder so many societies went with a Monarchy.

#23 I don't know! on 10.20.16 at 7:36 pm

“But in our gasbag cities, any rate cut will be seized upon by realtors and the Re/Max marketing machine as proof the meanies in Ottawa didn’t actually mean it.” – Garth

———————————————————-

That’s because they don’t actually mean. They just pretend to mean it.

#24 Context on 10.20.16 at 7:37 pm

I have noticed an obvious movement in the condo market so let me guess. There are those with deep pockets who sold off the mansion for tax free dollars. They don’t care now as are re-positioning themselves during the past few days into the best of condo towers where location is everything as the sold signs went up fast.

#25 US nuclear response time disclosure on 10.20.16 at 7:39 pm

On live tv.

By former US Secretary of State.

Running for becoming the president and chief of US armed forces.

No amount of spin will fix this.

#26 Victor V on 10.20.16 at 7:39 pm

Canada’s mortgage brokers find ways around new lending rules

http://www.bnn.ca/canada-s-mortgage-brokers-find-ways-around-new-lending-rules-1.589028

TORONTO – Canada’s new mortgage rules risk pushing borrowers deep into the shadow lending market, with brokers set to line up secondary loans with private lenders as a means of circumventing tests on borrowers’ ability to repay debt.

Canadian officials have become increasingly alarmed by systemic risk from record household debt levels and a frothy housing market. In the latest bid to cool the red hot Vancouver and Toronto markets, Ottawa’s new rules require lenders to stress test borrowers’ ability to pay back loans at levels higher than current rates.

As a way around them, brokers are planning to direct more borrowers to the so-called shadow lending market where private investors, frustrated by low interest rates on savings accounts, are eager to lend at rates that can enter the double digits.

#27 Smoking Man on 10.20.16 at 7:46 pm

In case you were diverted watching Donald Trump’s butt being handed to him-Garth
………
And every time the machine hands it to him, he grows followers. Why can’t anyone else see that? Am I the only one left who’s ever had a private blue collar job in the past. Geeze.

I’m a literary and marketing genius now, and there are millions of Deplorables out there to tap into.

#28 Ace Goodheart on 10.20.16 at 7:46 pm

Like I always say, delayed currency devaluation. They are just trashing the value of Canadian money.

The only thing they can’t trash the value of is real estate and the means of production. It is an odd situation where you have an ever increasing supply of increasingly worthless money chasing after an ever decreasing supply of hard assets. The only thing that stops people from buying, is literally they run out of credit. That is it. Otherwise, everyone plies in.

So basically now everyone is going to have to save up 20% so they can borrow at microscopic interest rates and purchase inflated price houses. That is not going to be hard to do. I read an article yesterday which recommended that people buy houses in groups. The focus of the article was “why not get together with friends and family, purchase a house with 20% down that you all pool together, and then split up the house”. Apparently this is what people are doing.

Stress tests for CMHC are not going to solve anything. Interest rates cannot rise because the folks in charge don’t understand what’s wrong. They are still acting as if money creates value. Flood the country with cheap cash, and the economy will flourish. This is what every country on the verge of a currency collapse has done, Mexico, Chile, Greece, Italy….print money, flood the system, everything will be fine…..It never is fine. Money is just pieces of worthless paper. You need an actual economy……

On the upside, there are still a lot of red hot screaming buys in the good ol’ TSX stock market. Why do people not trust/hate Canadian companies? Major Canadian entertainment company, paying a sustainable 10.12% dividend, selling at BOOK VALUE (yes, the share price is the same as the book value of the company) with a PE ratio at a ridiculously low 6.5 x is apparently continuing to lose value. I’ve been smorgasborging on this for a while now. Office located down on Dockside Drive right downtown in Toronto.

If this was a US company it’s share price would be going through the roof. Tons of great stuff on sale on the TSX, yard sale prices, nobody wants it.

#29 Irent on 10.20.16 at 7:47 pm

So no matter what GTA will stay unaffordable.

#30 Mark M. on 10.20.16 at 7:47 pm

“Meanwhile markets are giving almost 70% odds that the US Fed will raise its benchmark rate on December 14th.” – Garth

They’ve been so damn accurate for the past two years it would be foolish not to believe the odds.

Remember that 3% second half? They’ll be lucky to get 1.5%. You don’t raise rates into a slowing economy.

The Fed’s next move is a rate cut, it will blow your mind when it happens.

#31 Frank on 10.20.16 at 7:47 pm

What’s the historic precedent for rate divergence from the US? How often does it happen? How wide has the gap been and for how long?

#32 Braj on 10.20.16 at 7:47 pm

What’s the difference in having 20% of your portfolio in USD vs. 20% in the S&P500 or US Market ETF??

#33 Andrew Woburn on 10.20.16 at 7:51 pm

#90 bdwy sktrn on 10.20.16 at 2:20 am
#29 Andrew Woburn on 10.19.16 at 8:13 pm – i;m very dissapointed in you. (i guess you missed chem class?)

even the offical paper written by the scientists(not the junk spinjob in the link) freely admit this has no economic potential.

=================

It’s true accountants don’t do a lot of chemistry so if the criticism is deserved. I’ll wear it. However we do have a nasty habit of back checking sources. I have learned not to trust wide-eyed environmental journalists so I at least went back to the news release from Oak Ridge National Laboratory as attached.

https://www.ornl.gov/news/nano-spike-catalysts-convert-carbon-dioxide-directly-ethanol

They utterly failed to mention the lack of economic potential. Perhaps they are just trolling for grant money but I am not going to argue chemistry with them. Perhaps you could and warn them that they are on the wrong track.

#34 Neta on 10.20.16 at 7:55 pm

If prices even go nowhere, still, there are about 600,000 RE transactions a year, that means in 2 years one million of Lobsters will be thrown into this boiling pot. It’s just a matter of time untill this house of cards crumbles dow under its own weight

#35 MSM-Free Zone on 10.20.16 at 7:55 pm

“….rate cut by Poloz after Wild Bill’s mortgage mayhem, could negate the bubble-pricking intent in the last two delusional markets….”
_________________________

Oooooooahhhh.

Getting seriously tired of this coffee-and-muffin, talking head duo pumping their lofty, yet competing B.S. on Canadians.

Show me some empirical data that actually supports the Central Banker theory that micro-toying with interests rates has any more effect on the economy beyond that of warming your winter home with a Bic lighter.

#36 Jungle on 10.20.16 at 7:59 pm

I’ve said here in the commentary before that BOC will more likely cut rate again rather than raise up.

Unless data really changes but as we know, all forecasts are pointing flat or down.

Also in blog posts before you have said that interest rates typically follow US about 90% of the time. However I think this might be a time where we will not follow the US exactly until Canada gets going again.

If we have a housing crash with ripple affects, the Canadian economy may struggle for years while US grows.

BTW you forgot to mention the news yesterday about how the liberals plan to simulate economic growth: they’re going to increase immigration by 50% and import 500k immigrants per year.

How is the economy going to sustain this?

#37 Doug t on 10.20.16 at 8:00 pm

Of course nobody knows – their all making it up as they go along now. Central banks are off the rails and have no clue what to do. “Economists” are useless because we no longer are following any of the rules of traditional economics. Debt is king – printing money is all they have and the game is rigged. Banks are like slum lords that give you just barely enough attention to let you feel like your still a “customer”. And the elites run around in circles without a clue as to how to handle these new issues facing us.

I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel’s worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there’s nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there’s no end to it. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TV’s while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be. We know things are bad – worse than bad. They’re crazy. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don’t go out anymore. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we are living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, ‘Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials and I won’t say anything. Just leave us alone.’ Well, I’m not gonna leave you alone. I want you to get mad! I don’t want you to protest. I don’t want you to riot – I don’t want you to write to your congressman because I wouldn’t know what to tell you to write. I don’t know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street. All I know is that first you’ve got to get mad. You’ve got to say, ‘I’m a HUMAN BEING, God damn it! My life has VALUE!’

RATM

#38 tkid on 10.20.16 at 8:00 pm

What weighting would you give to maple if Poloz cuts and the Feds hike? Would you keep your safe stuff still in maple?

#39 Tom jones on 10.20.16 at 8:03 pm

Not sure why you still expect the US to move in a tighting direction but bearish/neutral on Canadian growth

US has been continuously trending downwards and the Fed speak at this point is laughable. If there wasn’t an election this year I think we’d see more easing from the folks down south.

Don’t assume the election is in the bag yet…..people are frustrated at politikin just as brits were with the EU

#40 Love My Kia on 10.20.16 at 8:06 pm

Trump will incite civil war when he refuses to acknowledge his loss giving Yellen her excuse to not raise rates yet again.

#41 Debtslavecreator on 10.20.16 at 8:06 pm

Most probable path over next 12 months. Adds on what I look at is:
– steady drop in CAD down to 60 with chance at 55-60 by late summer 2017
-BofC drops at least once by march
-steeper yield curve that shifts down with BofC at .25 or 0 a five yr mortgage for prime borrowers at 1.99-2
– detached GTA down 10-12 % by oct 2017
-sharp increase in unemployment
-Trudeau will leave office as the least popular PM of all time IF he is lucky to finish his term
-Strong and growing separatist movements grow in Quebec and Alberta with at least one leaving within 5 years

Oh (NO !) Canada !

#42 joblo on 10.20.16 at 8:09 pm

Bring on the .69 dollar.
Nice 10% on USD investments. Sweet.
Plow it all down south,
Doh Canada

#43 Bat Flipper on 10.20.16 at 8:12 pm

Do you see this changing any time soon? What are we doing to make things any better? Sitting on our hands? We have done nothing to spur growth in this country. No love for the SME Community.When the kids realize they can’t get jobs and the only jobs available are of your own making, then we might see some growth.

#44 Victoria Renter on 10.20.16 at 8:12 pm

New policies don’t seem to stop buyers in Victoria. It is very different here.
BTW First!

#45 Victoria Renter on 10.20.16 at 8:14 pm

New policies don’t seem to stop buyers in Victoria. It is very different here.
BTW First!

#46 GreaterFool D. on 10.20.16 at 8:18 pm

I think BoC will play by ear the Fed rate decission and US elections that should supersede BoC’s next meeting on Dec. 7

#47 broader mind on 10.20.16 at 8:21 pm

I think this was called paving the way.

#48 bigtowne on 10.20.16 at 8:23 pm

Minimum 20% in U.S. assets is somewhat of an offset for the looney.

Well, we are Cads so we must afford any and all remedy to canoe through this ocean of global zero interest rate policy. BNN did a survey whether mass immigration or infrastructure and foreign investment would kickstart our no growth economy and over 90% of the survey was for foreign investment and roads and only 8% for the mass immigration.

#49 Smoking Man on 10.20.16 at 8:27 pm

Paul Joseph Watson explains why 94% of Americans don’t trust MSM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpLAzAZXi2A

#50 Nick on 10.20.16 at 8:27 pm

I think 2017 will be the beginning of the great recession here in Canada. A rate cut will do absolutely nothing…it’s way too small to have any effect. Our country has been used and abused and now we’re being left behind. China is in big trouble too. Can’t forget that!!!

#51 young & foolish on 10.20.16 at 8:29 pm

A quarter point will not bring growth back …. this is structural … it’s demographics, and it’s the same in many places.

#52 palebird on 10.20.16 at 8:32 pm

Don’t know what debate you were watching Garth but Hillary lost any credibility she had left. She may still win but I would not put money on it. All the US citizens I have been in contact with lately ( twenty or so) are pro Trump. What the press says and what is being said on the ground are two different things. Whatever happens this will be rough going for the US and for us.

#53 Mel in Victoria on 10.20.16 at 8:34 pm

I’m not a fan of Hillary’s or the Donald, but every time she SMILES, I’m reminded of the movie JAWS! And the SMILE keeps on going…and going..and going.. And the teeth look like dentures made by a veterinarian for a camel with each tooth the size of my thumb nail! Has she ever looked in a mirror and smiled?

#54 John in Mtl on 10.20.16 at 8:41 pm

Garth says: “Obviously, nobody knows. Not even Poloz. He’s making this up as he goes along. Inspiring.”

Don’t you know? All central bankers make it up as they go along. Unless of course there are such things as The Illuminati, NWO, etc; in which case, things are going along exactly as planned.

#55 mike from Montreal on 10.20.16 at 8:41 pm

Whilst I really doubt the FED will do anything for the foreseeable future, what is certainly likely is another cut from BoC. Canadian preferreds beware.

Again I don;t understand the need to cut lending rates for anything other than devaluation. But again our lack of exports of wood and rocks is not about price, rather demand. Who cares if it’s 10% off (in USD) if there’s less demand for unfinished lumber and stuff?

#56 Mark on 10.20.16 at 8:42 pm

“Well, if growth is merely 1% this year with housing taking a whack, is that so smart?”

The parts of the domestic economy that will take the hit due to an acceleration of falling housing prices (after 3 years of stagnation) are largely held in private hands. The banks have most of their at-risk lending insured through the CMHC. The cyclical components of the TSX are mostly at levels of a decade or more ago, and commodity prices are closer to a bottom than a top.

Canadians are severely over-invested in houses, and dramatically under-invested in financial retirement assets. The TSX trades at a mere 15X earnings, which, despite interest rates which probably will be cut further, is well beneath its long-term average. With the cyclicals barely contributing to earnings no less! Considering where other markets, particularly the S&P500 are trading on an GAAP-compliant earnings basis, it would be dramatically stupid to under-weight Canada and over-weight the United States.

Another thing that Canadians are dramatically under-invested in are Canadian dollars. We’re told almost every week that Canadians are extremely highly indebted. As housing prices continue their decline, just like as occurred in the USA more recently, and Japan for the past decade or two, there will be relentless demand for Canadian dollars. Not only to repay debt, but also to accumulate personal savings. This is why saying the CAD$ is going to 69 cents USD$ is quite dangerous, especially with so much latent buying demand present for Canadians in the CAD$. Interest rate differentials might be tradeable in the short term (just ask the bloke who keeps trolling me!), but Japan, and even the USA shows us that low rates cause deflation and currency strengthening. Essentially creating a ‘cost’ of capital (there’s no such thing as free money!!!), even with zero interest rates, as debts have to be repaid in more ‘expensive’ and scarce ‘money’.

#57 Rexx Rock on 10.20.16 at 8:43 pm

First of all,we all know Poloz is a clown and has no credibility.Like Carney before him,they are a complete joke.A dog and pony show.As for interest rates,who really cares anymore.They’ll be low forever and Canadians will pile on debt like there is no tomorrow.Its really sad but do you really think the central bank and government care anymore?
Its all planned to fail one day when the majority of people are tapped out and the reset button is pushed.Good luck and enjoy life and don’t worry about all the bs.

#58 MF on 10.20.16 at 8:45 pm

#150 rjrt81 on 10.20.16 at 5:01 pm

“because putting the country back on track after the biggest financial collapse since the great depression caused by the republicans is a huge failure. the only failure was the republicans blocking everything he proposed simply because it came from him. you have a very strange grip on reality. but i guess this is all just a msm conspiracy theory. right. cutting your nose off to spite your face. super smart.”

-First off let me congratulate you on your ability to try and debate without the usual Liberal method of resorting to name calling and “emotion”. Well done.

Obama’s legacy is one of debt, bad foreign policy, and racial tension. It wouldn’t have mattered if Ronald McDonald elected president in 2008 because a recovery would have happened anyways. Now Obama’s recovery is the slowest on record and the most uneven. It is basically setting us up for disaster during the next inevitable downturn. His legacy, health care, was a complete flop too. If you are going to mention the Republicans blocking him I then ask what makes Obama any different from every other president the US has ever had? Haven’t they had to deal with congress too?

The reality is the US is trillions in debt, and out of the two candidates Trump is the only one even acknowledging it.

Add to that horrible foreign policy and bubbling racial tension not seen since Rodney King and you have a failed presidency.

MF

#59 dogman01 on 10.20.16 at 8:46 pm

Answer me this wise blog dogs I have ETF’s not hedged to CAD.

Vanguard VGG as an example.

I assume not hedged means if US $ goes up then my ETF goes up as it is in CAD$ but holding US securities in the ETF.

Am I on the mark here?

#60 MF on 10.20.16 at 8:48 pm

Poloz and the rest of the CB’s are incompetent.

So on the one hand, this clown talks about dangerous housing bubbles….and on the other talks about cutting rates from .5 to .25? Do these idiots know any other gameplan?? (no they don’t).

Absolute joke. 100%.

MF

#61 Keith in Calgary on 10.20.16 at 8:49 pm

Sitting here in Portland, Oregon………the Speakeasy Bar and Grill next yo my Holiday Inn where I am staying this week.

Nothing but Prius’ and BERNIE stickers everywhere I go. The last 2 nights I have been here the running unscientific poll of about 75 drunk and so er patrons is running 75% for Trump.

#62 Context on 10.20.16 at 8:51 pm

The Real Estate Brokers are becoming sneaky as are not listing on MLS so probably an exclusive listing. The Broker is top drawer but when you go to his site he is hiding the financial information of the transactions. I guess it is all a secret between the seller and the buyer until the deal is registered.

#63 bdwy sktrn on 10.20.16 at 8:51 pm

#24 US nuclear response time disclosure on 10.20.16 at 7:39 pm
On live tv.

By former US Secretary of State.
———————
shhhhh. it’s a secret.
no russians watching i hope!

#64 live clinton trump sparring on 10.20.16 at 8:58 pm

LIVE Stream: Donald Trump Deliver Remarks at the Alfred E. Smith Dinner in New York City 10/20/2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oniAhOcxGxk&feature=youtu.be

#65 bdwy sktrn on 10.20.16 at 9:04 pm

#32 Andrew Woburn on 10.20.16 at 7:51 pm

It’s true accountants don’t do a lot of chemistry so if the criticism is deserved. I’ll wear it. However we do have a nasty habit of*** back checking sources***. I have learned not to trust wide-eyed environmental journalists so I at least went back to the news release from Oak Ridge National Laboratory as attached.

https://www.ornl.gov/news/nano-spike-catalysts-convert-carbon-dioxide-directly-ethanol

They utterly failed to mention the lack of economic potential.
———————-
your back checking needs work. the quote is in the official published paper on the topic, not any news release/article.

the link to said paper appears in your news piece as well as the one originally quoted.

sure this is a new and novel process, but it’s about as useful as reducing atmospheric CO2 as bottling it with dr. pepper and shooting the cans into space.

#66 Victor V on 10.20.16 at 9:06 pm

#7 david on 10.20.16 at 7:09 pm
Garth,

Doesn’t Canada follow US fed interest rates 94% of time? If we’re expecting a likely interest rate increase on December 14, I would expect that Bank of Canada will have little choice but to hold rates (for as long as possible) but then eventually increase rates in Canada.

Correct. — Garth

====================

Which explains why pref ETFs like CPD and ZPR have been trending upwards these past weeks.

#67 rknusa on 10.20.16 at 9:13 pm

The dollar may fall but housing prices are going to keep going up

Trudean plans on increasing immigration by 50% to 450k per year, most of which will be well off, combine that with increased pied de terres being bought by Chinese who seek 10 year / 6 month visas and increased Chinese student living in Canada as well as a flood of temp foreign workers, especially with a lower dollar

Trudeau has taken the punch bowl away from current residents of Canada and is banking on keeping the housing industry going with better financed foreign visa holders, students and new Canadians

#68 common sense on 10.20.16 at 9:16 pm

Well The FED has jawboned a rate hike for the past year and likely will not again.

What is left of their credibility?

Now Stevie at least is giving an indication of a cut IF things do not improve (which is highly unlikely) yet gets called out for “making it up as he goes along”.

Things do change in reality and making adjustments as needed make sense.

How about we revert to the days of NO heads up and let a rate change just happen instead of all this BS?

Can’t have the manipulators do that can we?

#69 Wait There on 10.20.16 at 9:21 pm

Today I was discussing an item that someone had purchased and it was not what it had been purported to be. He screamed out ” I’ve been Hillaried”
Guess who that person will likely vote for.
New lingo on the way folks.

#70 Wrk.dover on 10.20.16 at 9:25 pm

#36 doug T.
A modern time ” I had a dream ” speech!

#71 White Crock BC on 10.20.16 at 9:27 pm

Two percent growth is the new normal. Get used to it.

As far as a 69 dollar causing inflation, we didn’t see any when the dollar went from par to 75c.

Just saying.

#72 conan on 10.20.16 at 9:30 pm

I think things are getting more complicated in the ME. This is going to put pressure on oil prices.

Iraq does not have nice things planned for the 750 thousand Sunni’s that still live in Mosul. The Iraqi nation considers them to be traitors. The Iraqi army is largely made up of Iranian Shia forces.

Expect a crisis. Oil is going to spike. Time frame 2 months.

#73 john on 10.20.16 at 9:35 pm

Things are unfolding as you predicted Garth..thanks to harper and flaherty’s false economy

#74 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.20.16 at 9:43 pm

if Poloz chops our national bank rate from 0.5% to just a quarter-point, while the Yanks are moving in the opposite direction, we’ll get a dollar at 69 cents or less.

Daaaaamn son!

#75 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.20.16 at 9:53 pm

Everybody (except homeowners in Vancouver and Toronto) now expect a serious fizzle to occur as mucho moisters are kept from indenturing themselves to buy crap houses at bloated prices.

Agreed. I hope that Vancouver and Toronto house prices will decline soon. It’s been forever since they’ve gone down.

#76 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.20.16 at 9:55 pm

Garth is right. If the BoC moves interest rates down while the Fed moves them up, the CAD$ is gonna tank. Nobody wants the currency of a country with an economy going backwards.

All presided over by T2 just like I called it baby!

Lol

#77 Ret on 10.20.16 at 9:59 pm

I’m not worried that our whole economy is dependent on a .25% interest rate cut. Increase immigration to 500,000+ yearly, send JT to China for another trade mission, host a G100 conference in Canada and build more bike lanes for those Millennials. Problem solved.

#78 -=jwk=- on 10.20.16 at 10:05 pm

As stated here yesterday, detached houses in Leaside or Kits will hardly be affected.

That never happens. Manhattan and Beverly hills were both hit hard. Leaside is nothing special – poor services, poor transit, horrendous traffic. The only thing keeping it up is wishes….

Actually, it’s demand. — Garth

#79 Josh in Calgary on 10.20.16 at 10:06 pm

#31 Braj,
I think what Garth means by 20% in US$ is 20% US equities. You can hold in a Canadian account or a US account. If the plan is buy and hold the fees are usually less to hold directly in a US account. But if you need to access it in Canadian $ soon then you’d be better just to hold the equivalent ETF on the TSX and save the exchange fee.

#80 bdwy sktrn on 10.20.16 at 10:10 pm

Expect a crisis. Oil is going to spike. Time frame 2 months.
—————-
cdn$ goes along for the ride if this comes to pass

#81 Pete on 10.20.16 at 10:15 pm

Where exactly did you see Trump getting his butt handed to him? Certainly not at the debate last night. I did however hear Hillary disclose top-secret information during the debate; that little thing about the 4 minutes it takes from the time an ICBM launch is ordered by the president to the time of the actual launch. If some military guy had told that to the press he’d already be in Gitmo.
Trump will win; it’s the will of the powers-that-be that hold control over our countries. Just as the Brexit vote went just as desired.

#82 45north on 10.20.16 at 10:20 pm

“The federal government’s new measures to promote stability in Canada’s housing market are likely to restrain residential investment,” the Big P added, “while dampening household vulnerabilities.”

credit goes to Bill Morneau to find the least offensive way to prick the housing bubble but it’s gona hurt. Wonder if Justin Trudeau will back his man?

Ex-Cowtown: A 0.25% rate cut is irrelevant to the real world.

Nick said the same thing.

young & foolish: A quarter point will not bring growth back …. this is structural I think small increases are very important. Crucial. 1.1% compared to 1%.

Shared Services Canada is spending $1.4 billion a year on developing a centralized computer system for the Federal Government. How will this expenditure improve the growth of the Canadian economy? Shared Services should foster the development of private expertise in companies who are then in a better position to compete in a global market.

Shared Services boasts that it is replacing 40 separate systems. I say development of 40 separate systems increases the chances that some of them will develop break through technology.

#83 acdel on 10.20.16 at 10:27 pm

I am not a believer of the projected rate hikes and if I am proven wrong it will the absolute minimum; just chest thumping to make a few look good!

I have taken your advice Garth as well as many other posters and diversified; only time will tell. Thanks.

#84 Lobster Man on 10.20.16 at 10:30 pm

Here is what David Rosenberg has to say, about global growth:
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-real-vision-tv-interview-2016-10

#85 Smartypants on 10.20.16 at 10:32 pm

Went deep in USD investments when the loonie was even Steven back several years ago. What a genius move that was. Lesson learned and proven, never bet against the USA.

#86 Mike on 10.20.16 at 10:36 pm

Canada is special.

No RE crash. Period…

2008 was worst economic crash in late history and Canadian RE didn’t “crash crash”.

Nothing is gonna happen US style, even close.

#87 ww1 on 10.20.16 at 10:42 pm

#24 US nuclear response time disclosure on 10.20.16 at 7:39 pm
On live tv. By former US Secretary of State. Running for becoming the president and chief of US armed forces. No amount of spin will fix this.

Hmmm .. no spin fix needed here. Just a few simple facts.

snopes.com Fact Check : Politics Ballot Box : Loose Nukes

Don’t you just hate it when you post total crap that is so easily proven to be wrong?

#88 Ignorance Is Bliss on 10.20.16 at 10:43 pm

I’m working for a bank now. Helped a lady today with $100K in a “high interest” savings account. She earns $55/month interest, seriously! Oh how I wish I had $100K to invest (properly)….

#89 Bram on 10.20.16 at 11:00 pm

A rate-cut is just what the doctor ordered.

Housing bubble made it dangerous to cut rates as it would add gas to the bubble.
But now the bubble is deflating, there is nothing stopping a cut.

We need the rate-cut to lower the Canadian dollar.
With a lower Canadian dollar, we will be better equipped to produce cost-effectively for the rest of the world.

Also, Canadians need to stop flying to Hawaii or Europe and instead vacation within our borders: It is cheaper for the consumer, and it means more income for the local recreation industry.

#90 BillyBob on 10.20.16 at 11:00 pm

#51 Mel in Victoria on 10.20.16 at 8:34 pm
I’m not a fan of Hillary’s or the Donald, but every time she SMILES, I’m reminded of the movie JAWS! And the SMILE keeps on going…and going..and going.. And the teeth look like dentures made by a veterinarian for a camel with each tooth the size of my thumb nail! Has she ever looked in a mirror and smiled?

====================================

Man, and Trump calls Clinton “nasty”! What a mean-spirited, dismal little comment. Made, I’m sure, by someone a long ways this side of supermodel. It’s not Hillary that needs to look in a mirror.

Reading today’s blog all I can say is I am glad that by mostly sheer dumb luck I have put everything I’ve made working overseas into USD over the last 11 years. It’s juvenile but good fun to toggle the currency function on my financial tracking software and watch my net worth go from USD to CAD and instantly increase about 30%. Kind of moot since I can’t see returning permanently to live in the land of taxes, poor weather, whiners, and overpriced shelter. But it makes visits even more enjoyable.

#91 conan on 10.20.16 at 11:05 pm

#56 MF on 10.20.16 at 8:45 pm

NAY…… Considering what Bush left Obama to work with he is going to be remembered like Lincoln by historians.

His only screw up was Obama care. Even then if you look under the microscope, he is giving the private insurance companies a chance to keep the business under the new rules. This has obviously failed and that gives Hillary( yep) the social license to install a Canada type health care plan. This new American plan will also have some neat private insurance options.

So neat in fact, Canada will copy it.

#92 greyswan on 10.20.16 at 11:06 pm

In the news today….Bill Morroneau and his business partner Barton want more immigration…..to 450,000 a year!!
Are they living on the moon or will I be??
All western countries are moving to lower immigration (brexit) policies wanted by it`s citizens….this is the kind of talk that makes people like Donald Trump popular!!

The suggestion came in a non-government report. It has been rejected. Try harder. — Garth

#93 ben volmmer on 10.20.16 at 11:29 pm

They know exactly what they’re doing .Destroying your currency, your real estate, your career…making you a powerless serf, time to get ready

#94 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.20.16 at 11:47 pm

Trump says he will accept the outcome of the election “if he wins”.
Gotta love a politician with a sense humor.

#95 Mark on 10.21.16 at 12:00 am

“that little thing about the 4 minutes it takes from the time an ICBM launch is ordered by the president to the time of the actual launch. If some military guy had told that to the press he’d already be in Gitmo.”

That’s nothing that you couldn’t figure out by simply reading a little bit about ICBM/SLBMs and a slight bit of knowledge, all available in the public domain, about the US Command and Control infrastructure.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/05/our-nuclear-procedures-are-crazier-than-trump/

“U.S. presidents are currently given a four-minute window to decide whether or not to initiate an irreversible apocalypse. …” — August 5, 2016

Even the 4 minute number in that article assumes that the attack originates from Russian terrestrial-launched ICBMs. If you assume, for instance, that an attack on Washington could be carried out by a sub-launched SLBM flown on a depressed trajectory, the decision makers, unless dispersed, could be incinerated within that 4 minute window.

Lots of reasons to worry about whether Hillary or Trump are suitable candidates for President, but that statement by Hillary is not one of them as she merely stated facts that were clearly already in the public domain.

#96 Sydneysider on 10.21.16 at 12:03 am

The 1% growth sounds impressive, but can be accounted for by the 1% increase in population. Per capita GDP has changed by only 1.5% since 2011. Canada is keeping its head above water, nothing more.

#97 Keith on 10.21.16 at 12:04 am

A quarter point cut in rates, 69 cent dollar. Good news for the lumber business, other resources, tv and film production, technology companies, and real estate. Lucky B.C., lucky Vancouver.

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.21.16 at 12:05 am

Relax peepel.
The American President is just a figure head, anyway.
Just what has Obama achieved in 8 years?
Talking heads, all of them.
Give the Don a chance.
At least he’ll bring some hump to the office.

#99 DON on 10.21.16 at 1:18 am

Repost – dam spelling mistakes

#84 Mike on 10.20.16 at 10:36 pm
Canada is special.

No RE crash. Period…

2008 was worst economic crash in late history and Canadian RE didn’t “crash crash”.

Nothing is gonna happen US style, even close.
*************
Pick up shovel, dig gigantic whole in sand, insert head and fill ears with sand.

Sunshine and unicorns in your future.

#100 Longterm on 10.21.16 at 1:21 am

#79 Pete on 10.20.16 at 10:15 pm

Yeah, sure, ‘classified’ information that Bloomberg wrote a whole article about weeks ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-nuclear-weapon-launch/

#101 DON on 10.21.16 at 1:22 am

#63 bdwy sktrn on 10.20.16 at 9:04 pm
#32 Andrew Woburn on 10.20.16 at 7:51 pm

It’s true accountants don’t do a lot of chemistry so if the criticism is deserved. I’ll wear it. However we do have a nasty habit of*** back checking sources***. I have learned not to trust wide-eyed environmental journalists so I at least went back to the news release from Oak Ridge National Laboratory as attached.

https://www.ornl.gov/news/nano-spike-catalysts-convert-carbon-dioxide-directly-ethanol

They utterly failed to mention the lack of economic potential.
———————-
your back checking needs work. the quote is in the official published paper on the topic, not any news release/article.

the link to said paper appears in your news piece as well as the one originally quoted.

sure this is a new and novel process, but it’s about as useful as reducing atmospheric CO2 as bottling it with dr. pepper and shooting the cans into space.
***************

Science is about keeping an open mind. This method is plausible and with more research and key technology advancements could become feasible.

#102 Give it Time on 10.21.16 at 1:25 am

Renter in Victoria
New policies don’t seem to stop buyers in Victoria. It is very different here.
BTW First!
———–

The Foreign Buyer’s Tax does not impact Victoria and the new mortgage rules just kicked in on Monday. The last couple of weeks would have seen a few more solds than average as people ‘rushed’ to beat the new rules!

#103 Carroll Quigley on 10.21.16 at 1:32 am

Money and Goods Are Different

Thus, clearly, money and goods are not the same thing but are, on the contrary, exactly opposite things. Most confusion in economic thinking arises from failure to recognize this fact. Goods are wealth which you have, while money is a claim on wealth which you do not have. Thus goods are an asset; money is a debt. If goods are wealth; money is not wealth, or negative wealth, or even anti-wealth. They always behave in opposite ways, just as they usually move in opposite directions. If the value of one goes up, the value of the other goes down, and in the same proportion. The value of goods, expressed in money, is called “prices,” while the value of money, expressed in goods, is called “value.”

from Carroll Quigley ‘Tragedy and Hope’

#104 Mark on 10.21.16 at 1:45 am

“We need the rate-cut to lower the Canadian dollar.
With a lower Canadian dollar, we will be better equipped to produce cost-effectively for the rest of the world.”

Actually a higher CAD$ is better for the country as it implies a very low cost of capital and low interest rates for capital intensive (as opposed to labour intensive) industry. Canada will never be competitive on a labour cost front, which is what a lower CAD$ would be all about. Canada is already generally a prolific net exporter and generally only goes into trade deficits when the price of commodities go very low — a reflection of the cyclicality associated with commodities.

The CAD$ is set to go dramatically higher as resource prices normalize to prices reflective of normal returns on capital (currently most commodities are being produced at less than long-term cost, a historically abnormal situation, but a reflection of the cyclicality of such commodities!). Canadians, now demographically and financially predisposed to dramatically higher savings rates and debt repayment, will also drive the CAD$ much higher through debt repayment and a reduction in personal consumption.

Throw in, for instance, Canada’s precious metals mining sector having a much-deserved resurgence after decades of relative stagnation, and the CAD$ could eventually find itself in an inversion of the 63 cent USD$/CAD$ experienced in the early 2000s. Lots of global macro factors are lining up to make this a reality, especially as US inflation takes off in the wake of global USD$ reserve dumping. Remember that USD$ held overseas represent eventual demand on the US economy, and such demand is inherently inflationary as those reserves are dumped.

#105 I like cookies on 10.21.16 at 1:46 am

Things sure have changed since the optimistic days at the beginning of the year when it looked like rates would have been raised yesterday — http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/01/el-predicto-3/

I’m just going to hide in my closet with my internationally diversified and balanced portfolio and see what happens next…

#106 Freedom First on 10.21.16 at 2:15 am

#26 Smoking Man

Yes. Through unforseen circumstances I was on my own at 17. No worries. I went to work and to night school. One job I did was shoveling shit at the racetrack. I learned a lot. For instance, on the bus ride home I had the whole back of the bus to myself. Says much about life.

I remember learning from my Business studies all about the trickle down theory. That was decades ago. Today, even the Herd knows all about the trickle down theory. Even the fact that the trickle is the color of shit.

#107 DON on 10.21.16 at 2:24 am

US election.

Lesson Learned:

There is a large number of disheartened voters looking for a leader, one with integrity, at the very least.

We may witness the emergence of viable third party or the first independent President in the near future?

#108 ulsterman on 10.21.16 at 4:25 am

Ace Goodheart
“On the upside, there are still a lot of red hot screaming buys in the good ol’ TSX stock market. Why do people not trust/hate Canadian companies? Major Canadian entertainment company, paying a sustainable 10.12% dividend, selling at BOOK VALUE (yes, the share price is the same as the book value of the company) with a PE ratio at a ridiculously low 6.5 x is apparently continuing to lose value. I’ve been smorgasborging on this for a while now. Office located down on Dockside Drive right downtown in Toronto.”

Why not just say Corus Entertainment? Why the big secret?

#109 Canada is NOT Mexico on 10.21.16 at 5:39 am

re #87 Bram

We need the rate-cut to lower the Canadian dollar.
With a lower Canadian dollar, we will be better equipped to produce cost-effectively for the rest of the world.

Also, Canadians need to stop flying to Hawaii or Europe and instead vacation within our borders: It is cheaper for the consumer, and it means more income for the local recreation industry.

**********************

Dude, we are not Mexico. We cannot compete with the low wage environment of the Mexican economy. Mexicans can barely afford to vacation in their own country. Vacationing in Canada is expensive because we compete with tourists from Europe and the US in our own backyard. Hotels are not giving you a discount because you’re born here. It’s global.

There are ways to become more competitive but it needs to start at the public service sector. We are paying an elementary teacher the same amount an assistant doctor neuro-surgeon makes in Germany. The resident doctors in Germany make less than our fire fighters. Every policeman in Canada costs as much as two officers in Europe. The list goes on.

#110 #47 Smoking Man...that was great on 10.21.16 at 5:50 am

Even some of the Left thinks the same.

If you have Netflix, watch Lefty Noam Chomsky in “Requiem for the American Dream (2015)”.

He says the same thing and more.

Nice to see a Millennial be a critical thinker.

bsant

#111 Son of a Gun on 10.21.16 at 6:13 am

#10 The Nature Boy on 10.20.16 at 7:11 pm

“In case you were diverted watching Donald Trump’s butt being handed to him,”

Wow. The post’s first sentence.

FYI Garth, CNN is hiring. You will get a job either there or with MSNBC.

—————————————————

FYI infowars.com is also hiring. Don’t forget to bring your tinfoil hat to the interview.

#112 Victor V on 10.21.16 at 6:23 am

Bombardier cutting 7,500 jobs including 2,000 in Canada

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bombardier-cutting-another-7500-jobs-rail-unit-to-be-hit-hardest/article32466387/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile

#113 Kool-Aid, no thank you. on 10.21.16 at 6:34 am

Algorithmic labour to be retired on mass, automation & robotics growth to accelerate, fast as glass G5 wifi networks, genome inspired medicines, new materials revolution, clean water & agri-sci break throughs, fission energy, autonomous everything, vac/mower/auto… so good time to buy a property, I hear Poloz might lower rates. Canada needs to invests in the future. Housing isn’t it.

#114 juno on 10.21.16 at 6:44 am

If Canada reduces its rates and US increases

Borrow at the low Canadian rates and buy USD currency.

You are borrow for essentially .25 and will be getting better rates in the US.

This will result in lower Canadian dollar and higher US
giving you gains in interest collect and currency exchange.

As this continue US raises again, Canada can’t move resulting in second iteration of Canada dollar drop and better return on USD. ….. vicious cycle

That is what happened in greece

#115 You're right Garth, it's a coin toss on 10.21.16 at 7:05 am

If you look at economic indicators, pre-Wild Bill measures, it is a sputtering Cdn. economy at best.

Many of the pro/con raise rates people you quote have vested interests and will argue on behalf of those interests, one way or the other.

Leave them out of the equation.

Leave rates low if only for the sake of far too many indebted Cdns. that are on the brink of failing financially.

Give them time to dig themselves our from under the mountain of debt they have accumulated.

Yes, you can argue why keep Zombie debtors in play, raise rates and purge them from the system…this will only lead to more responsible borrowing [and lending]. The lower the rates, the more you encourage irresponsible borrowing.

If there were only a few, then yes, then raise rates…but, there are far too many Cdns. like this and it would hurt the Cdn. economy for a near decade as it did in the USA post 2008/2009.

Leave rates low for as long as can be tolerated.

bsant

#116 westcdn on 10.21.16 at 7:14 am

Just an observation. Trump is complaining the US election is being rigged against him. Nonsense say the Democrats – this is proof Trump is unfit to lead.

Yet the Democrats say the Russians are rigging the election against Hillary. A lot of Americans are going to be holding their noses when they go to vote if they even bother.

Say, wouldn’t a low voter turnout favour Trump?

#117 Andrew t on 10.21.16 at 7:27 am

Wow. People are still clinging to the notion that somehow Trump is in ascendancy. He got smoked again at the debate. When he said “no puppet, no puppet, you’re the puppet”, he lost, aside from all the crap answers he gave. His comebacks suck, he’s just whining now and playing the victim. When your whole shtick is to be a strongman, and you are reduced to sputtering like a fool, you’ve lost. It’s over for Trump. Worst of all, his act is getting predictable and boring. The only question now is how much of a landslide it will be for Clinton.

#118 james on 10.21.16 at 8:04 am

I wonder how many of the Trumpsuckers on here watched the Donald’s nasty little man performance last night at the Al Smith dinner?

What really stands out is his inability to grasp the basic elements of self-deprecating, inclusive humour.

All that it takes is a little bit of emotional security (a far different creature than merely narcissism).

And intelligence.

Yup. IQ.

Donald does not have it. He is simply not that bright.

Like Trumpsucker smoking idiot, who will never publish anything that anyone will read, Trump is fundamentally not very bright.

What a way to show it, less than three weeks to his demise.

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.16 at 8:15 am

@#26 Smoking Mensch
“And every time the machine hands it to him, he grows followers. Why can’t anyone else see that? Am I the only one left who’s ever had a private blue collar job in the past.”
********************************************

Its not the “MSM machine” or “Crooked Hillary” that its causing Trump to fail in the polls.

Its his endless, babbling, meaniless generalities.

“We’re gonna make things better”, “Its gonna be so good, so good”, ” We’ll create thousands of jobs”, “We’re gonna build a wall”.

In 3 debates the guy couldnt concentrate longer than 10 seconds before veering off into fiscal fantasy land.
“I’m gonna cut taxes and raise the militarty budget and reduce the budget deficit…..”

Pure, unadulterated, insane, babbling bullshit.

At least Clinton sounded sane.

My guess
Trump will resign at the 11th hour rather than face defeat at a woman’s hand. He will do it to screw over the Republican Party and the new US President who will win by acclimation not a vote…..and THAT will get the conspiracy nutjobs even more worked up because they’ll be convinced “crooked Hillary” was behind the whole thing.

Trump is insane.
That is what we see. Why cant you?

Zero facts, zero numbers,

#120 fancy_pants on 10.21.16 at 8:15 am

more job cuts..

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bombardier-cutting-another-7500-jobs-rail-unit-to-be-hit-hardest/article32466387/

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.16 at 8:19 am

@#96 Ponzius Pilates

“Give the Don a chance.
At least he’ll bring some hump to the office.”
*******************************************

Bill Clinton already tried that and got caught………

#122 Grey Dog on 10.21.16 at 8:33 am

87 Bram,
It’s February -20 for the previous three weeks, pray tell us dogs…your secret Canadian spot to vacation to get away from the ice, COLD, and snow. Canadian dollar at par.

#123 Sonny on 10.21.16 at 9:43 am

Not sure if this was posted or not, yet…..so here it is:

“Canada’s mortgage brokers find ways around new lending rules”

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadas-mortgage-brokers-find-ways-around-new-lending-rules

#124 Capt. Serious on 10.21.16 at 10:19 am

#80 45north
Shared Services boasts that it is replacing 40 separate systems. I say development of 40 separate systems increases the chances that some of them will develop break through technology.

I don’t think you understand what you’re saying. It is completely reasonable to have the same IT infrastructure for all GoC departments. They are not tasked with developing technology. Their job is to deliver the services their department represents. Shared services is supposed to provide the platform other departments use. This isn’t rocket science. Execution of IT projects is notoriously horrible, because a lot of end users know [email protected]#$ all about the systems they use, and people underestimate that.
I work for a global company that has offices all around the world, and we have common IT services. It’s possible.

#125 Context on 10.21.16 at 10:22 am

#79 Pete: In USA its the Electoral College who picks the President and Vice President. The Brexit vote by the citizens of Britain is not decided by the people but by the British government who have the final vote determination.

#126 Victor V on 10.21.16 at 10:39 am

Ottawa proposes sweeping changes to spread mortgage risks

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/ottawa-proposes-sweeping-changes-to-spread-mortgage-risks/article32467860/

Ottawa is launching consultations with the financial industry that could see lenders shouldering as much as 15 per cent of the costs of losses on defaulted mortgages that have government-backed insurance.

The Department of Finance released a 22-page consultation paper laying out its vision of sweeping changes to Canada’s 62-year-old mortgage insurance system in an effort to shift more of the risks of Canada’s hot housing market from taxpayers to lenders themselves. It is asking for lender feedback by Feb. 28.

“Lender risk sharing represents a potential approach to rebalance the distribution of risk in Canada’s housing finance system, to take advantage of lenders’ abilities to manage housing risks, thereby reducing taxpayer exposure, while continuing to meet housing finance objectives of financial stability, access, competition and efficiency,” the government wrote in its paper.

#127 Aggregator on 10.21.16 at 10:48 am

“Canada’s mortgage brokers find ways around new lending rules”

As expected. Don't believe what the media is telling you. Home prices are set to take off again by mid 2017.

#128 Smoking Man on 10.21.16 at 11:00 am

#115 james on 10.21.16 at 8:04 am
I wonder how many of the Trumpsuckers on here watched the Donald’s nasty little man performance last night at the Al Smith dinner?

What really stands out is his inability to grasp the basic elements of self-deprecating, inclusive humour.

All that it takes is a little bit of emotional security (a far different creature than merely narcissism).

And intelligence.

Yup. IQ.

Donald does not have it. He is simply not that bright.

Like Trumpsucker smoking idiot, who will never publish anything that anyone will read, Trump is fundamentally not very bright.

What a way to show it, less than three weeks to his demise.
……

There you go again. Name calling and thugster bullying. Such a common characteristic of the deranged left side of the brain.

If just one person buys my book it would all be worth it to me. It’s about the art. Truth rolled out in the form of a lies.

I’m figuring a nasty ass like yourself will never buy it but will be first to write a scathing book review.

What is with all the aggressivenes, got a charter in my book. Charles Ashman. He’s alot like you. Thanks for the assistance in his character development.

It will be up on Lulu.com begining of Nov. Just can’t decide on a book title.

What do you suggest James.

#129 Barb on 10.21.16 at 11:01 am

Bombardier layoffs are bad news.
More good paying jobs gone.

Their pension commitments were one reason they’re cutting.

Plus they want $1 billion from Canadian taxpayers, having already sucked money out of Quebec.

T2 will probably give it to them unfortunately.

#130 MF on 10.21.16 at 11:03 am

#89 conan on 10.20.16 at 11:05 pm

“NAY…… Considering what Bush left Obama to work with he is going to be remembered like Lincoln by historians.”

-Honestly, are we STILL blaming Bush?

US housing crash debated- causes:

1) Housing tax policy: The Tax Reform Act of 1986 eliminated the tax deduction for interest paid on credit cards. As mortgage interest remained deductible, this encouraged the use of home equity through refinancing, second mortgages, and home equity lines of credit (HELOC) by consumers.”

2) The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997

3) Deregulation, which started in the 1980’s

4) Mandated loans, The Housing and Community Development Act of 1992

5) Historically low interest rates, after 2001 dot com crash, the FED lowered…and then raised in 2006.

6) Belief that housing is a good investment

7) Promotion in the media

8) Risky products/securities, started in 1995

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_United_States_housing_bubble

As you can see, it’s not just “Bush’s fault”. I honestly think this popular idea that the world is Bush’s fault is from watching too many Limousine Liberal Michael Moore propaganda films. The housing crisis had root causes that started decades before Bush and had been overseen/ignored by both political parties.

This does not change the fact that Obama has been a failure. That debt will not go away, and it’s on his watch that it increased to such levels. It’s on his watch that the ME is a mess and Russia is able to push around a NATO ally. It’s on his watch that US allies were thrown under the bus and terrorist/enemy states were pandered too. It’s on his watch that the worst recovery in history is taking place (if you believe it at all). It’s on his watch that the nation is experiencing racial tension not seen in decades.

MF

#131 James on 10.21.16 at 11:09 am

Trump is indeed narrow minded, sexist and misogynistic. The sexist and misogynistic remarks being made by his admirers right on this thread serve as evidence of that. As for narrow-mindedness: virtually all of his grand (and conveniently vague) schemes for the country are economically unrealistic, if not downright ridiculous, and focus on keeping power in the hands of the powerful, and wealth in the hands of the rich. I know you worship the ground he walks on, but he’s no demigod. He’s merely a very manipulative rookie politician who knows how to tell you what you want to hear.

#132 MF on 10.21.16 at 11:12 am

#124 Aggregator on 10.21.16 at 10:48 am

Agreed. These changes will do nothing. Although I believe a crash is inevitable here in the GTA.

The real reason for these rules is, like all Liberal party promises, to just placate the masses and to enrich themselves. They are masters of talking out of both sides of the mouth and are not to be trusted with ANYTHING. Think about it, now that we feel good our “responsible” government is doing something we will ignore the fact ZIRP is still going on. The Liberals can now spend and increase national debt (while taking/stealing for themselves, of course).

*Note how our idiot CB is now debating a rate drop. Does that make sense to anyone? Honestly.

MF

#133 Shawn on 10.21.16 at 11:19 am

It is quite possible that the $CAD eventually posts new all time lows (i.e. < 62 cents) over the several few years as the echo technology boom and bull market in the $US and US stock market accelerates. Canada is an economic laggard similar to Europe. As mentioned, Canada has economic headwinds. The US will resume its position of global economic dominance and this will be reflected in the strength of its currency and financial markets.

#134 Johnny Boy on 10.21.16 at 11:22 am

#125 Smoking Man on 10.21.16 at 11:00 am

#115 james on 10.21.16 at 8:04 am
I wonder how many of the Trumpsuckers on here watched the Donald’s nasty little man performance last night at the Al Smith dinner?

What really stands out is his inability to grasp the basic elements of self-deprecating, inclusive humour.

All that it takes is a little bit of emotional security (a far different creature than merely narcissism).

And intelligence.

Yup. IQ.

Donald does not have it. He is simply not that bright.

Like Trumpsucker smoking idiot, who will never publish anything that anyone will read, Trump is fundamentally not very bright.

What a way to show it, less than three weeks to his demise.
……
There you go again. Name calling and thugster bullying. Such a common characteristic of the deranged left side of the brain.
If just one person buys my book it would all be worth it to me. It’s about the art. Truth rolled out in the form of a lies.
I’m figuring a nasty ass like yourself will never buy it but will be first to write a scathing book review.

What is with all the aggressivenes, got a charter in my book. Charles Ashman. He’s alot like you. Thanks for the assistance in his character development.
It will be up on Lulu.com begining of Nov. Just can’t decide on a book title.
What do you suggest James.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Stick with your Chapter one title “The Talking Dick Head”
It is categorically simulative of your characters repute.

#135 MF on 10.21.16 at 11:25 am

#35 Jungle on 10.20.16 at 7:59 pm

It’s not about the number of immigrants, but the quality. I’m all for taking in 500k hard working and happy people who are proud to be Canadian and ready to assimilate (like my Filipina SO and all her friends/family). Actually, almost every immigrant I have come across has been just that. We have done a good job of picking the best (so far).

That takes us to John Mccallum, who is not to be trusted. This is where I think the big fear of immigration talk comes from. A lot of people think he is out of touch with reality and do not believe he knows what he is talking about. He looks as they he is more interested in some “agenda” than ensuring Canadian immigration remains top notch. I honestly believe he is unfit for the job due to mental issues and incompetence. Bring back Kenney.

MF

#136 Tony on 10.21.16 at 11:32 am

Sonny on 10.21.16 at 9:43 am
Not sure if this was posted or not, yet…..so here it is:

“Canada’s mortgage brokers find ways around new lending rules”

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadas-mortgage-brokers-find-ways-around-new-lending-rules
——————————————–
Let them borrow from private lenders. This will ensure we have an even quicker and deeper crash. Housing is doomed.

#137 Bram on 10.21.16 at 11:34 am

#119 Grey Dog on 10.21.16 at 8:33 am
It’s February -20 for the previous three weeks, pray tell us dogs…your secret Canadian spot to vacation to get away from the ice, COLD, and snow. Canadian dollar at par.

Why would a Canadian with a measly 2wks vacation time go on holiday in the winter? In the winter, Canadians work. In the summer, they could go on a road trip to see the rest of Canada.

Winter vacations are for Europeans with their 6wks of vacation time.

#138 Braj on 10.21.16 at 11:34 am

#27 Ace Goodheart on 10.20.16 at 7:46 pm
Like I always say, delayed currency devaluation. They are just trashing the value of Canadian money.

The only thing they can’t trash the value of is real estate and the means of production. It is an odd situation where you have an ever increasing supply of increasingly worthless money chasing after an ever decreasing supply of hard assets. The only thing that stops people from buying, is literally they run out of credit. That is it. Otherwise, everyone plies in.

So basically now everyone is going to have to save up 20% so they can borrow at microscopic interest rates and purchase inflated price houses. That is not going to be hard to do. I read an article yesterday which recommended that people buy houses in groups. The focus of the article was “why not get together with friends and family, purchase a house with 20% down that you all pool together, and then split up the house”. Apparently this is what people are doing.

Stress tests for CMHC are not going to solve anything. Interest rates cannot rise because the folks in charge don’t understand what’s wrong. They are still acting as if money creates value. Flood the country with cheap cash, and the economy will flourish. This is what every country on the verge of a currency collapse has done, Mexico, Chile, Greece, Italy….print money, flood the system, everything will be fine…..It never is fine. Money is just pieces of worthless paper. You need an actual economy……

On the upside, there are still a lot of red hot screaming buys in the good ol’ TSX stock market. Why do people not trust/hate Canadian companies? Major Canadian entertainment company, paying a sustainable 10.12% dividend, selling at BOOK VALUE (yes, the share price is the same as the book value of the company) with a PE ratio at a ridiculously low 6.5 x is apparently continuing to lose value. I’ve been smorgasborging on this for a while now. Office located down on Dockside Drive right downtown in Toronto.

If this was a US company it’s share price would be going through the roof. Tons of great stuff on sale on the TSX, yard sale prices, nobody wants it.

—-

Any other recommendations Ace? :)

#139 DON on 10.21.16 at 11:38 am

#115 james on 10.21.16 at 8:04 am

I wonder how many of the Trumpsuckers on here watched the Donald’s nasty little man performance last night at the Al Smith dinner?

What really stands out is his inability to grasp the basic elements of self-deprecating, inclusive humour.

All that it takes is a little bit of emotional security (a far different creature than merely narcissism).

And intelligence.

Yup. IQ.

Donald does not have it. He is simply not that bright.

********Like Trumpsucker smoking idiot, who will never publish anything that anyone will read, Trump is fundamentally not very bright************

What a way to show it, less than three weeks to his demise

****************

A little off side on your Smoking Man comment. Why do you feel the need to be a nasty! SM has more insight than most, stop paying attention to the window dressing and look for substance. You can never go wrong.

#140 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 10.21.16 at 11:38 am

I don’t know why Canada has to bring in 50% more skilled immigrants. Why don’t we just train all the the Canadians who are on employment insurance??????

#141 Still employed in AB on 10.21.16 at 11:39 am

Wild Bill strikes again http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/ottawa-proposes-sweeping-changes-to-spread-mortgage-risks/article32467860/

PS To the poster who thought I worked in the public sector…your wrong….but I do expect another round of layoffs in the not too distant future at my work.

#142 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.21.16 at 11:48 am

Donald Trump is visiting a elementary school and he visits one of the classes. They are in the middle of a discussion related to words and their meanings. The teacher asks Mr Trump if he would like to lead the discussion of the word “tragedy.” So he asks the class for an example of a tragedy. One little boy stands up and offers: “If my best friend who lives on a farm, is playing in the field and a runaway tractor comes along and knocks him dead, that would be a tragedy.” “No,” says Mr Trump, “that would be an accident.”

A little girl raises her hand: “If a school bus carrying 50 children drove over a cliff, killing everyone inside, that would be a tragedy.” “I’m afraid not,” explains the exalted businessman. “That’s what we would call a great loss.”

The room goes silent. No other children volunteer. Mr Trump searches the room. “Isn’t there someone here who can give me an example of a tragedy?”

Finally at the back of the room, little Johnny raises his hand. In a quiet voice he says: “If a private jet carrying you was struck by a missile and blown to smithereens, that would be a tragedy.” “Fantastic!” exclaims Mr Trump, “That’s right. And can you tell me why that would be a tragedy?” “Well,” says the boy, “because it sure as hell wouldn’t be a great loss and it probably wouldn’t be an accident either.”

#143 rjrt81 on 10.21.16 at 12:02 pm

#56 MF on 10.20.16 at 8:45 pm

Really, whats different about Obama? I’ll tell you sir. He’s black for one. An then he was a Muslim. And he was born in Africa. Both right wing lies. No other President has ever had defend his birth certificate or nationality. I’ll tell you a little story before you get all foaming at the mouth. My parents were snowbirds for a few years when Obama was first voted in. They spent winters in Arizona. On numerous occasions they heard the n bomb in reference to Obama. It made them incredibly uncomfortable, but they would generally ignore it and just move on. But one day while they were at a communal dinner they heard a group of men talking that they wouldn’t think twice about putting a bullet between that n****r’s eyes. They were talking about Obama. Now, this very well could have be an isolated
incident. Some how i doubt it. It was incredibly shocking to them that a group of people were that comfortable dropping n bombs and talking about shooting the President between the eyes for being black. That was the last winter my parents owned their trailer there. So i say to you. Obama didn’t cause the racial tension. Him being a black president caused the racial tension. And that’s what makes him different. And in regards to his foreign policy. America’s foreign policy since WW2 has been a disaster with both Republicans and Democratics in charge. You can easily find failings and statics to validate your own point when you have a narrow scope of history. Your points are incredibly dishonest and lack any real sense of history. Obama has warts. I don’t think anyone would ever argue that. No world leader in time would be free of them. And its funny how the right likes to talk and about national debt. But don’t like to talk about who created it. And it sure wasn’t him. Much like the Conservatives in Canada who enjoyed historically high commodities prices. Facts are facts. And opinions are just that. Garth has regularly layed out statistics about America’s recovery. But i know its all MSM lies and Elite’s manipulating statistics. My head hurts now.

#144 Lock Her Up on 10.21.16 at 12:15 pm

#115 james on 10.21.16 at 8:04 am
I wonder how many of the Trumpsuckers on here watched the Donald’s nasty little man performance last night at the Al Smith dinner?

What really stands out is his inability to grasp the basic elements of self-deprecating, inclusive humour.

All that it takes is a little bit of emotional security (a far different creature than merely narcissism).

And intelligence.

Yup. IQ.

Donald does not have it. He is simply not that bright.

Like Trumpsucker smoking idiot, who will never publish anything that anyone will read, Trump is fundamentally not very bright.

What a way to show it, less than three weeks to his demise.

__________________

I’m guessing you majored in gender studies.

#145 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.21.16 at 12:17 pm

#122 Context on 10.21.16 at 10:22 am
#79 Pete: In USA its the Electoral College who picks the President and Vice President. The Brexit vote by the citizens of Britain is not decided by the people but by the British government who have the final vote determination.
—————–
That’s why Trump is saying that the election is rigged against him.

#146 Karma on 10.21.16 at 12:21 pm

Hyperpartisanship is terrible. Must read!!

https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/partisan-fb-pages-analysis?utm_term=.wcPgnjRyDa&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=News+-+102116&utm_content=News+-+102116+CID_62493d9532e3757759e540ae6f9be6c6&utm_source=BuzzFeed+Newsletters#.cgvOBwQ9Wo

#147 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.21.16 at 12:29 pm

I see quite a lot of Trump in Smoking Man.
Both are playing dumb, but are actually quite bright.
Schtick is all I’m saying.

#148 Ogopogo on 10.21.16 at 12:39 pm

#18 I don’t know! on 10.20.16 at 7:25 pm
Someday, Garth will be proven to be correct about rising rates. But I’m not holding my breath.

He has already been proven right, you hopeless dolt. Have you forgotten last December’s hike? A low IQ is no excuse for not knowing how to google.

#149 Context on 10.21.16 at 12:47 pm

Trump is intelligent as knows how to game a business deal but is no politician which becomes his downfall. My, the room seems angry today and if poor Sir Lew shows up he will have his hands full.

#150 Victor V on 10.21.16 at 12:48 pm

http://www.bnn.ca/canada-s-inflation-retail-sales-miss-fuels-speculation-of-bank-of-canada-rate-cut-1.589463

OTTAWA – A drop in Canadian retail sales in August and cooler-than-anticipated annual inflation in September reinforced speculation the Bank of Canada may lower interest rates again, after the bank acknowledged this week it had considered cutting.

Statistics Canada said on Friday retail sales fell 0.1 per cent, missing expectations for a 0.3 per cent gain. Volumes fell 0.3 per cent.

The weak retail performance in the first two months of the third quarter could mean there is somewhat less buoyancy to the expected economic rebound. Analysts expect growth picked up in the third quarter after wildfires in Alberta caused a contraction in the second quarter.

#151 TurnerNation on 10.21.16 at 12:49 pm

Wowww…who wants to buy a strip club in Long Branch!

https://www.realtor.ca/Commercial/Retail/17246167/2847-LAKE-SHORE-BLVD-W-Toronto-Ontario-M8V1H8-New-Toronto

#152 Victor V on 10.21.16 at 12:50 pm

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-united-front-games-closure

One of Vancouver’s largest and few remaining independent game development studios has shut down, leaving 145 employees suddenly unemployed.

Yaletown’s United Front Games (UFG) ceased its operations earlier this week, according to a source who requested anonymity. The studio, founded in 2007 by former developers from other local studios such as Electronic Arts and Rockstar Games, was one of the largest homegrown successes in Vancouver’s tech ecosystem.

#153 Steerage Bilge on 10.21.16 at 12:59 pm

#131 Johnny Boy on 10.21.16 at 11:22 am

#125 Smoking Man on 10.21.16 at 11:00 am

#115 james on 10.21.16 at 8:04 am
I wonder how many of the Trumpsuckers on here watched the Donald’s nasty little man performance last night at the Al Smith dinner?

What really stands out is his inability to grasp the basic elements of self-deprecating, inclusive humour.

All that it takes is a little bit of emotional security (a far different creature than merely narcissism).

And intelligence.

Yup. IQ.

Donald does not have it. He is simply not that bright.

Like Trumpsucker smoking idiot, who will never publish anything that anyone will read, Trump is fundamentally not very bright.

What a way to show it, less than three weeks to his demise.
……
There you go again. Name calling and thugster bullying. Such a common characteristic of the deranged left side of the brain.
If just one person buys my book it would all be worth it to me. It’s about the art. Truth rolled out in the form of a lies.
I’m figuring a nasty ass like yourself will never buy it but will be first to write a scathing book review.

What is with all the aggressivenes, got a charter in my book. Charles Ashman. He’s alot like you. Thanks for the assistance in his character development.
It will be up on Lulu.com begining of Nov. Just can’t decide on a book title.
What do you suggest James.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Stick with your Chapter one title “The Talking Dick Head”
It is categorically simulative of your characters repute.

“Nasty Deplorable Alien Hombres” natch

#154 no bid on 10.21.16 at 1:05 pm

The panic in the mainstream should begin in earnest when we hit those huge price spikes in YVR in the first 2-4 months of 2016. By the time existing prices are compared YOY the declines will be enough to shock any and all homeowners. Those are the numbers that will be widely reported by the media. The single detached market has gone nearly “no bid”. The YOY sales declines are quite shocking.

#155 traderJim on 10.21.16 at 1:18 pm

#115 James gives one view of the Al Smith Charity dinner.

I, being mild mannered and not liking confrontation all that much found it almost impossible to watch the end of Trump’s remarks where he dropped all pretense and unloaded on crooked Hillary and the smarmy elites in the room who support her. Talk about uncomfortable.

The media portray this as Trump ‘bombing’.

Online, the hardcore Trumpsters are celebrating like never before, as the Trump legend grows, him having the balls of a lion to say what he really thinks to that crowd.

He is being described as ‘the god emperor’, and that was mild praise compared to some.

Of course Trump will lose the election, that was known from the beginning.

But he is starting a movement that you are totally ignorant of, and which will give you plenty to hate over the next few decades.

Me, I’m sticking to my classical liberal (a la the turncoat Paul Ryan) views and staying out of it.

But it really is glorious to see the Donald burn down the house, scorch the earth, and make a first step at Draining the Swamp.

He’s the only one with the balls to do it, and he’s becoming a legend.

Trump TV should be up and running by late January.

It’s the first innings, I am going to need more popcorn.

#156 bdwy sktrn on 10.21.16 at 1:19 pm

t2’s tough as nails negotiator chewed up and spit out and then literally cries about it. – this guy said it best at a different site ………………….

Negotiations got too demanding and she couldn’t handle the pressure. This is what happens when a goody-two-shoes PM appoints people to important cabinet positions simply based on gender and cultural background, and not merit. They get completely and totally overwhelmed and are so far out of their knowledge and comfort zone that they run at the first sign of stress. Her only working experience is being a journalist. How the #$%$ does anyone go from from that to a position of brokering massive trade deals for an entire country???? It sounds like she just wanted to go home to see her kids, rather than do the job she was hired to do. If you can’t handle a job that takes you away from family time, then quit. If you want to be a big shot lady (or man) and represent and work for the whole country, your kids need to be on the back-burner. She is wayyyy out of her league, as are most of the idiots trudeau picked for his cabinet. Just like he is way out of his league as nothing more than a p/t drama teacher.

#157 marketpundit on 10.21.16 at 1:21 pm

I can go on record here by saying that BoC will CUT either this year or definitely in Q1, 2017. Poloz has made it clear he wants a lower loonie (trying to revitalize manufacturing sector and make export more competitive. His failure will be epic ). All these new capitalization rules for banks, stress tests, etc. is just a preparation for this move. They want to make sure this cut does create another round of housing orgy. RE Tax on foreigners is needed to prevent foreigners from hopping on a buying spree after loonie tanks and make Canadian RE attractive “again” in US dollar terms.
Thus, More rate cut(s) and Lower Loonie are coming very soon. You can bet on it. Remember 68 cent loonie at the beginning of this year. Round 2 is coming at the same time next year. Recently, Loonie has decoupled from OIL. Oil is above $50, Loonie is drifting lower or not responding at all. Bad economic data takes loonie down though. Wait for the Oil to start tanking (repeat of last year) and we will get loonie below 70 cents again.

#158 traderJim on 10.21.16 at 1:22 pm

p.s. if you have not seen the gif of the face of the man sitting next to the Donald as he pivots from corny jokes to nuclear wasteland mode, you absolutely have to see it.

No need to look it up if you are lazy, you will be seeing it a million times over the next few years. Classic, hilarious, best thing to come out of the election.

#159 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 10.21.16 at 1:22 pm

For the record I’m a dually in SW WA, married to a Canadian.

Thank you Garth and all blog dogs for all I’ve learned in the 2 months of being addicted to this “pathetic little blog.” Discovered it via the “Nauseating Duo”. Please don’t shutter it and leave us newbies out in the cold..

#59-Keith in Calgary. Its true: SW Wa is Trump all the way (and increasingly Johnson) and Ptown’s Bernie. I was behind a little Geo metro with Trump stickers yesterday. Can’t recall seeing even one Clinton bumper sticker or yard sign in the past 6 monthes. 30 mins out from the city, it’d be inviting arson to put one up and within the city it’d be enough to get you side swiped. Even amongst family, politics have gotten to be a taboo to discuss because the tension is unavoidable. Coming from a family who was certainly all one party before. This one’s a shakeup for sure.

#52 John in Mtl
Agreed. Can’t see anything but a Mrs. Snake in the Grass victory in sight even though the popular seems to be for Mr. Unstable and Vulgar.
Mrs is the cardboard prop needed to “ensure things keep going how they’re supposed to.” And if not this time around then in 4 to 8 years. That’s really “the ball that won’t be pushed back uphill” she was referring to.

#160 traderJim on 10.21.16 at 1:38 pm

It’s fascinating really. Trump is now being celebrated for sticking up for the little guy by giving the finger to a room full of old, rich, white establishment men at what is now being called the ‘Red Dinner’ in reference to the famous Game of Thrones Red Wedding massacre.

And the so called progressives now support the Wall Street favourite Hillary.

You really need to watch the entire Trump part of the roast to see what has everyone (online) going crazy.

It’s no longer Republican vs Dems, from here on in it is clearly the little guy vs the elites.

#161 bdwy sktrn on 10.21.16 at 1:38 pm

#134 Bram on 10.21.16 at 11:34 am
#119 Grey Dog on 10.21.16 at 8:33 am
It’s February -20 for the previous three weeks, pray tell us dogs…your secret Canadian spot to vacation to get away from the ice, COLD, and snow. Canadian dollar at par.

Why would a Canadian with a measly 2wks vacation time go on holiday in the winter? In the winter, Canadians work. In the summer, they could go on a road trip to see the rest of Canada.

Winter vacations are for Europeans with their 6wks of vacation time.
——————————–
govt workers are having a great laugh at this. many govt departments are virtually shut down for 3 weeks at xmas to allow for their fun in the sun. but the rest of cdns better keep working to pay for all of it!

#162 BS on 10.21.16 at 1:51 pm

Ace Goodheart
On the upside, there are still a lot of red hot screaming buys in the good ol’ TSX stock market. Why do people not trust/hate Canadian companies? Major Canadian entertainment company, paying a sustainable 10.12% dividend, selling at BOOK VALUE (yes, the share price is the same as the book value of the company) with a PE ratio at a ridiculously low 6.5 x is apparently continuing to lose value. I’ve been smorgasborging on this for a while now. Office located down on Dockside Drive right downtown in Toronto.

Don’t confuse “good buy” with catching a falling knife. Corus stock is down over 50% in the last few years and is in a business that is declining. The future is streaming high quality content like Netflix not C grade cable based Canadian specialty channels. Another reason people should stick with ETFs.

#163 LL on 10.21.16 at 1:52 pm

………”we’ll get a dollar at 69 cents or less”………..

The usual mantra will be back: “It’s good for our exportations.”

They never talk about our “importations”…Not so good!

#164 Smoking Man on 10.21.16 at 1:57 pm

Twitter is down, someone broke my Herdomitor.

Huge DNS attacks today. The equador embassy is surrounded with heavily armed cops.

Something bad must have been leaked..

#165 Smoking Man on 10.21.16 at 1:59 pm

#148 TurnerNation on 10.21.16 at 12:49 pm
Wowww…who wants to buy a strip club in Long Branch!

https://www.realtor.ca/Commercial/Retail/17246167/2847-LAKE-SHORE-BLVD-W-Toronto-Ontario-M8V1H8-New-Toronto
…..

That’s not Long Branch. That’s new Toronto, a bit sleazy over there.

#166 Alex on 10.21.16 at 2:35 pm

why low overnight rate is not good for economy (in long term)?

#167 Doug in London on 10.21.16 at 2:39 pm

Victor V, post #64 said: Which explains why pref ETFs like CPD and ZPR have been trending upwards these past weeks.
——————————————————————-
While many commenters here were bellyaching about how much preferred share ETFs had dropped, Uncle Garth said it was an optimum time to buy them because they were on sale and there was great potential for price appreciation. Was anyone else here paying attention?

#168 Ace Goodheart on 10.21.16 at 3:01 pm

#159 BS:

“Don’t confuse “good buy” with catching a falling knife. Corus stock is down over 50% in the last few years and is in a business that is declining. The future is streaming high quality content like Netflix not C grade cable based Canadian specialty channels. Another reason people should stick with ETFs.”

Not too sure about that. Rogers just dumped Shomi and remember, internet comes into your house through a cable (mostly owned by Shaw and Rogers). Shaw just took a big stake in Chorus in exchange for some assets so the big guys have some skin in the game.

Netflix is nothing without a delivery system…..owned by the telephone and cable guys.

The future is streaming, but in Ontario streaming is owed by the telephone and cable companies. Doesn’t take much for billion dollar companies to adjust to the times. Or buy their competition……

#169 45north on 10.21.16 at 3:06 pm

Capt. Serious: I don’t think you understand what you’re saying. It is completely reasonable to have the same IT infrastructure for all GoC departments. They are not tasked with developing technology. Their job is to deliver the services their department represents.

don’t you mean : “their job is to deliver the services each department requires”?

what I mean is that $1.4 billion a year is a lot of money. It is a privileged and unique opportunity and it in fact is the promise to deliver something better than what each department could do by itself. Up to now Shared Services has failed to deliver the promise.

You said “they are not tasked with developing technology”. Well yes they are. I worked at Statistics Canada and Agriculture Canada. Both these departments need new technology to do their work and Shared Services as the designated provider for IT must develop the technologies.

New Democrat MP Erin Weir is co-chair of the Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates.

Weir said Shared Services Canada might be able to exercise “a kind of negative control” over StatCan — not by directing what StatCan does, but be denying it the ability to do its research properly.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/canadas-chief-statistician-quits-statistic-canada

#170 Context on 10.21.16 at 3:07 pm

#148 TurnerNation: – Long Branch stops at twenty third street as the official boundary line but that joint even has hotel rooms on the second floor. The Smoking Man seems to know it well enough.

#171 Smoking Man on 10.21.16 at 3:12 pm

#traderJim

Love your diplomacy and style, me I like james just the way he is. Don’t mind unhinging him one bit.

I’ve promised you dogs full ufo disclosure this year and it’s going to happen in Early November

The hackers that hit Podesta were not the Russians, UFO hackers looking for the truth.

The secret being kept away from everyone is zero point energy. It’s there a gift from the stars. But humans are not ready for it. Oil interests from Saudi and other places are suppressing it. This is why the machine wants’s to destroy Trump and keep the party going using the dumb down lefties as it’s police force. Ironic if you think about it.

No Zero point energy is allowed to humans unless they become civilized. and superpowers learn to get along. Hence, Trump, that’s why Nictonites endorse him. Space x Rocket was destroyed by Charles Ashman it had a military payload. Unfortunately, the moron keeps forgetting to hit the stealth mode button in his flier. That’s why everyone saw him that day.

#172 Roial1 on 10.21.16 at 3:20 pm

#27 Ace Goodheart on 10.20.16 at 7:46 pm

Ok Ace, What is the code for this stock????

#173 Mel in Victoria on 10.21.16 at 3:33 pm

BillyBOB

#51 Mel in Victoria on 10.20.16 at 8:34 pm
I’m not a fan of Hillary’s or the Donald, but every time she SMILES, I’m reminded of the movie JAWS! And the SMILE keeps on going…and going..and going.. And the teeth look like dentures made by a veterinarian for a camel with each tooth the size of my thumb nail! Has she ever looked in a mirror and smiled?

====================================

Man, and Trump calls Clinton “nasty”! What a mean-spirited, dismal little comment. Made, I’m sure, by someone a long ways this side of supermodel. It’s not Hillary that needs to look in a mirror.

Reading today’s blog all I can say is I am glad that by mostly sheer dumb luck I have put everything I’ve made working overseas into USD over the last 11 years. It’s juvenile but good fun to toggle the currency function on my financial tracking software and watch my net worth go from USD to CAD and instantly increase about 30%. Kind of moot since I can’t see returning permanently to live in the land of taxes, poor weather, whiners, and overpriced shelter. But it makes visits even more enjoyable

BILLY BOB
I’ll post a picture of Hillary and myself and you decide who’s the cutest :)..Relax. It’s all in good fun.. Have a nice day!

#174 PETE on 10.21.16 at 3:41 pm

People go and email wild Bill and T2. Don’t be lazy. Let them know it makes no sense to even engage in conversations with vested interest. The fact is no lender wants to share any risk in this risky monster of a housing bubble. Please go write to them.
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/federal-government-mortgage-insurance-default-risk-1.3815798

#175 Victor V on 10.21.16 at 3:44 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/mortgage-rules-babies-apartments-financial-planner-1.3808642

New mortgage rules that took effect on Monday will likely mean many millennials will have to raise infants in apartments, says a Toronto financial planner.

Shannon Lee Simmons, a certified financial planner at the New School of Finance in Toronto, told CBC’s Metro Morning on Monday that many millennials hoping to buy their first homes may have to rent for a little longer, maybe even three to five years.

“We are all going to be raising babies in apartments. That’s what it’s going to come down to,” Simmons said.

Her advice to millennials, of which she is one, is accept their plight, don’t overdo it on rent, stay in an apartment with affordable rent for three to five years, start your family, pay for day care and come out the other side with savings.

“Accept your fate a little bit,” she said.

#176 CJBob on 10.21.16 at 3:52 pm

#153 bdwy sktrn on 10.21.16 at 1:19 pm
________________
Keep typing away at your keyboard…T2’s approval ratings after the first year are sky high. I love what he’s doing and apparently I’m not alone.

#177 GreaterFool G. on 10.21.16 at 4:19 pm

DELETED

#178 Braj on 10.21.16 at 4:36 pm

#159 BS on 10.21.16 at 1:51 pm

I agree, though who is to say they won’t adapt or sell shows to Netflix?

#179 Bram on 10.21.16 at 4:50 pm

#159 BS
Don’t confuse “good buy” with catching a falling knife. Corus stock is down over 50% in the last few years and is in a business that is declining. The future is streaming high quality content like Netflix not C grade cable based Canadian specialty channels. Another reason people should stick with ETFs.

The stock price stopped falling in 2016.

Income has been stable the last few years, with a big uptick last quarter.

Company seems well diversified too.

I agree with Ace that at that 10+% div yield, it is very attractive.
Even if valuation glides down further, that dividend will make up a lot for it.

Google Finance lists it at 14.2 P/E though, not 6.5x.

Disclaimer: I don’t own Corus, but they do look interesting.

#180 Joe2.0 on 10.21.16 at 4:53 pm

I’m going to laugh when Trump wins and Hillary goes to prison.

#181 jeeperscreeperz on 10.21.16 at 4:57 pm

#134 Bram on 10.21.16 at 11:34 am

#119 Grey Dog on 10.21.16 at 8:33 am
It’s February -20 for the previous three weeks, pray tell us dogs…your secret Canadian spot to vacation to get away from the ice, COLD, and snow. Canadian dollar at par.

Why would a Canadian with a measly 2wks vacation time go on holiday in the winter? In the winter, Canadians work. In the summer, they could go on a road trip to see the rest of Canada.

Winter vacations are for Europeans with their 6wks of vacation time.”

Ever hear of Whistler, Lake Louise, Mont Tremblant……jeepers!

#182 Smoking Man on 10.21.16 at 5:19 pm

Radical tree hugger tosses pumpkin seeds at T2 Hilarious. Shouting out “keep your promises” You don’t get a better tree hugger than T2 and Butts. These folks are nuts.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/rcmp-questions-woman-who-threw-seeds-at-pm-1.3125648

#183 jess on 10.21.16 at 6:09 pm

(DE) knighted entitlement holders replaced with a permanent tattoo on their forehead so less sophiscated financial illerate types can easily recognize the “mark” on a beast.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/21/philip-green-honours-humiliation-business-culture-bhs

#184 Mark on 10.21.16 at 6:12 pm

Is it just me and my lame ISP, or does anyone else run into big-time caching issues on this site? One page says 179 comments but when I go in, there’s only 164. Tried a few different computers, so I know its not my local caches.

#185 greyhound on 10.21.16 at 6:24 pm

Given the national popularity of Greater Fool, is Mr Poloz reading this? More importantly, maybe GF is actually influencing monetary policy? If he were running the BofC, what would Garth do?

#186 BS on 10.21.16 at 7:07 pm

#165 Ace Goodheart on 10.21.16 at 3:01 pm

Netflix is nothing without a delivery system…..owned by the telephone and cable guys.

The future is streaming, but in Ontario streaming is owed by the telephone and cable companies. Doesn’t take much for billion dollar companies to adjust to the times. Or buy their competition……

Corus is content for Canadian cable companies not a cable company. Big difference.

Note Netflix market cap is $48 billion US compared to Shaw at $12 billion CAD. Shaw won’t be buying Netflix anytime soon.

#187 BS on 10.21.16 at 7:15 pm

#176 Bram on 10.21.16 at 4:50 pm

The stock price stopped falling in 2016.

Hugh? July 11, 2016 it was $13.99 today it is $10.93 (down 3% today alone). That is over 20% loss in the last 3 months.

#188 Ace Goodheart on 10.21.16 at 7:48 pm

#169 Roial1

CJR.B

#189 Coho on 10.22.16 at 2:45 am

Someone mentioned monarchies. What we have in the USA is a ‘Bananarchy’ — part monarchy, part banana republic. You have the Bush-Clinton tag team taking turns at president. Obama is just a puppet. Don’t know if his heart is as black as theirs. Maybe his hands were tied and he was ‘taken out to the woodshed’ the day of his inauguration.

Most of those allowed to reach the highest positions of authority can be blackmailed. This is why Hillary is above the law. She has the goods on all of those in key positions. That is how the ruling elite operates. Everyone they touch gets dragged down to their pitiful level. That is how they control people. Those they ‘let in’ are guilty of crimes and deviant behaviour, which is threatened to be exposed if they don’t play ball.

Bottom line is if she goes down, so does the shadow government which she brags as being the real power. Word has it that after her interview on the Today Show, after Lauer asked her an unexpected question about the bleached emails, she screamed that she wanted him fired and yelled at her staff to get their crap together because if Trump gets in they’ll all be hanging from lamp posts. Then called the head of the DNC, Donna Brazile the ‘N’ word. Yes, HRC is a nasty person who happens to be female.

With all of the WikiLeaks revelation, how anybody can support this woman, this warmonger criminal who is above the law to gain the rein of power at the seat of the US Presidency is beyond me.

#190 westcdn on 10.22.16 at 3:51 am

I looked at Corus and decided to stay away. The Shaw family controls both Shaw Communications and Corus through the use of voting and non voting common shares. The recent Shaw Communication sale of Shaw Media to Corus struck me as just a way to legally transfer cash and assets between corporate entities. It is not to benefit shareholders.

The Shaw family always comes first over everybody else. Anyway, Corus bled cash in the deal. I smell a skunk as the Shaw Media assets don’t generate enough cash flow to sustain the current Corus dividend. I expect a dividend cut soon. However, since most of the dividends are paid to the grasping Shaw family, there is an equal chance the cut will not occur.

Now that Corus has lots of media assets, the “rationalizations” (layoffs) are underway. I will continue to stand back and watch the results.

#191 Kat on 10.22.16 at 1:16 pm

@ Victor,

I have no problem raising our kids in an apartment but now the average rent went from $1650 to $2350 in our area for new renters and the 2017 rates for rental increase went up instead of down. The cost of daycare is insane and everything else in Vancouver now is beyond the average income. None of my friends own here and they are all debating their exit strategy as paying such high rent and never having a chance to own is making every other province seem much more attractive. I should add I am not a millennial and have two kids and all my friends also are the same age and have families none of us spend more than we have but when your cost of living starts to exceed your wage it is time to leave we all figure.