The price to pay

man-tax-modified

So what happens when the rules suddenly change and everyone with a normal down payment has to go through a stress test? What if many fail? It’s just so… stressful. Like having to pee in a cup before the real estate Olympics, and then freaking out awaiting the results. Life was so much simpler when the bank just gave you more money than you could ever repay, so you could buy a first house nicer than your parent’s last.

Just two days into the Wild Bill era of mortgage-testing, and already there are consequences. ‘Secondary’ lenders are suddenly feeling good. They’re the shadowy, unregulated guys running small lending shops happy to provide down payment financing, so borrowers can get over the 20% hurdle and avoid the stress test. But at a cost. Those loans generally come with a rate of between 8% and 10%. Ouch.

Sellers are starting to get it, too. Dave in the YVR hinterland sent me a listing of a house in Surrey a couple of weeks ago when the price was trimmed by twenty thousand. “Well it was taken off MLS last week,” he now reports, “but it’s back now at a $50,000 discount. Oh..they’ve somehow added an extra bedroom too, lol. Hard to believe people in the Lower Mainland aren’t seeing what I’m seeing.”

Here’s the house, before and after. Change the picture. Add a bedroom, Drop the price. Thanks, Bill.

house-1house-2

This is a big week for your house. (a) Rule changes Monday which will guarantee that prices start to drift lower along with sales. (b) The continued hobbling of monoline mortgage lenders, reducing competition for the banks and leading to rate increases. (c) The spectre of big lenders having to shoulder deductibles on mortgage insurance (heretofore backed solely by taxpayers), also upping rates. (d) And the bombshell news that CMHC – more responsible for inflated properties and epic debt levels than anyone else – is raising the housing threat level to code red.

Says CMHC boss Evan Siddall, as he prepares the bombshell to be delivered next Wednesday: “High levels of indebtedness coupled with elevated house prices are often followed by economic contractions. We expect Mr. (Wild Bill) Morneau’s actions therefore to support our economy. Seen this way, the resulting delay in when people can purchase their first home, or their decision to buy a smaller home, rent or stay put is rather a small price to pay.”

That ‘small price’ will be borne by existing homeowners, now in an environment where buyers can afford less, will pay less and take longer to accumulate a down payment. That’s the result of a conscious and deliberate damping of demand, just like BC’s Chinese Dude tax. No government is increasing the supply of housing, simply making it harder to buy what already exists. So people who’ve seen windfall gains fall into their laps over the last half-decade are gambling with the future if they don’t crystallize them. Actually, it may be too late. At least in Surrey. It would’ve been wise to heed this pathetic blog’s call around Canada Day to get out of Lower Mainland property – before all this happened.

Well, CMHC’s Siddall says Code Red will not just apply to the godless GTA and delusional YVR, but also (and maybe especially) to bordering communities. As reported behind the Globe’s evil paywall (Make Newspapers Great Again) yesterday, he said this: “We’re observing the spillover effects in the central markets of Vancouver and Toronto, affecting nearby markets. In Toronto, it’s affecting Hamilton and Oshawa. Outside of Vancouver, it’s places like Richmond and the Fraser Valley. You’re seeing price acceleration. At the nationwide level, the evidence of problematic conditions has become high – that’s what red means. It’s not predicting a crash.”

As explained here earlier this week, a ‘crash’ now translates into ‘a US-style crash’ which means a national drop of more than 30% in real estate values. The federal agency does not say this is impossible or improbable. It’s just “not predicting” – “at the nationwide level.” At the level of, say, Surrey or York Region, it is absolutely possible and maybe even probable. Everybody should understand that when real estate turns on its owners, those most affected live in semi-urban, suburban or satellite-city environments where prices were pushed irrationally higher by urban refugees. As stated here yesterday, detached houses in Leaside or Kits will hardly be affected.

What happens nationally to property values is of interest only to egghead Bay Street economists and the omniscient trolls with no life who inhabit the nether reaches of this blog’s fetid, oozy comment section. For normal people, it means not being able to sell the house and watching you net worth shrivel. That sucks.

But you were warned.

159 comments ↓

#1 Mr Reality on 10.19.16 at 6:40 pm

Sheeple. They make me able to buy stuff nice and cheap at the bottom.

Thank you Sheeple

Mr R

#2 not 1st on 10.19.16 at 6:47 pm

Once again, the govt gets it wrong. Good thing our smartest people have a solution and aren’t politicians.

CO2 turned to Ethanol

http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-just-accidentally-discovered-a-process-that-turns-co2-directly-into-ethanol

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.19.16 at 6:48 pm

Enough of the real estate naked truth.
Its so 2016.

I want the “debate” to start so I can have a good laugh at The Donald digging himself deeper with every wince, scowl, inhale and lie he can muster.

#4 TurnerNation on 10.19.16 at 6:49 pm

Well well the bank just increased my unsecured LOC rate by 1.05%

#5 lala on 10.19.16 at 6:52 pm

What red warnings means???? CMHC covering their fat ass when crash happens. Smart move.

#6 pathcontrolmonk on 10.19.16 at 6:54 pm

Average decrease of 30% nationwide translates into 80% in YVR.

#7 AJ on 10.19.16 at 6:54 pm

I’m adding Guelph to the GTA overinflated list. No listings and utter garbage for half a million.

#8 Doug t on 10.19.16 at 6:55 pm

Don’t be that person that says ” I told you so”

#9 ChickenLittle on 10.19.16 at 6:55 pm

I know for sure that in 25 years from now the price of houses will be higher than they are today.

I also know for sure that Trump will…

#10 The real Kip on 10.19.16 at 6:56 pm

So, this week it’s a 30% correction? Hard to keep track.

#11 Saint John Proud! on 10.19.16 at 7:00 pm

There are over 45 listings between 500k$ and 1M$ in the Saint John & area advertised currently. How long before they crumble?!

I bet SJ161926 will drop shortly from the listed $1,150,000 to below 1M$… with the new regime.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16834623/40-WATERVIEW-Place-SAINT-JOHN-New-Brunswick-E2K5K2

#12 Goldie on 10.19.16 at 7:01 pm

The “man tax” poster is feminism’s latest salvo at addressing the so-called “pink tax”. This business in New York decided to gamble on alienating male customers (I’d never shop there, but no doubt some leftist manlets and limp wristed SJWs still will) in order to make a political statement. I wonder how that will work out for business. I’m guessing that the sign will eventually come down.

#13 Brian Ripley on 10.19.16 at 7:04 pm

On my chart of TSX Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities Indexes http://www.chpc.biz/tsx-indexes.html

…there is a pattern developing where the gap between the financials and real estate indexes are narrowing as they did prior to the 2008 correction. The energy plot has been putting in lower highs and lows since early 2011 and that is adding to the drama that is unfolding.

#14 Hairhead on 10.19.16 at 7:07 pm

As much as the Trump-trolls and the T2-haters don’t want to admit, this is actually *responsible* government. It’s tamping down on an unregulated and unstable sector of the economy, causing short-term pain to avoid a worse disaster.

That’s only step 1, of course

Steps 2 – 10 will be to make a formal industrial strategy, focussing on broad goals of adjusting the proportions of various industry sectors’ percentage of the overall economy, rebalancing (as blog-dogs do) so that economic downturns and bubbly-hysteria have less of an effect on the economy, and also increasing and distributing well-paying jobs throughout the country.

Some people will say, “Whut! Whut!” “Free Market!(drool)”

Sorry, the only thing such “free” markets (which aren’t really free) lead to are concentrated wealth, widespread poverty, boom-and-bust economies, political instability (that’s what Brexit and Trump are symptoms of), and the return of feudalism, with all its benefits.

Responsible democratic governments set up conditions for wealth production and wealth distribution which lead to the greatest benefit to the greatest number, resulting (it is hoped) in a stable economy composed of well-educated, flexible, talented workers secure in the knowledge that the basic health and well-being of their families will not be affected too badly by the gales of the global economy.

#15 Smoking Man on 10.19.16 at 7:08 pm

Like I always say The T2 maggots of destruction don’t give a rats ass about anyone outside the big cities.

Jay’s lost. The fairies of the city will be crying, inside my heart I’m going Nice.
The wake is at the Toronto Star.

#16 Smartalox on 10.19.16 at 7:15 pm

Saw a Facebook post yesterday by a friend who is an agent, crowing about how she helped a nice lady buy an awesome townhouse on Van’s Westside, for $1.2M.

The reason for the celebratory post was the effort required to close the deal before restrictions came into effect on the 17th.

All I could think as I read the post was how ‘grateful’ I’d be if my friend had helped me overpay for a property moments before restrictions were enacted that would almost certainly reduce the value of that same property, potentially for years to come.

About as grateful as I’d be for being handed a boat anchor while drowning, I suspect.

#17 Muttley O'Toole on 10.19.16 at 7:16 pm

But there is another scenario – Trump wins and most of the
elite 1%’s vamoose to Canada with their ill gotten gains.
Just think of what this will do to the Canadian economy – like Scrooge McDuck you will be swimming in cash.
But then again, maybe not.

#18 Chaddywack on 10.19.16 at 7:16 pm

A lot if the prevailing thought in Vancouver is that people simply won’t sell their houses. They will just hold out until they can get their price, which eventually they will get. A lot of people are under the belief that the west side won’t decrease at all.

#19 Metaxa on 10.19.16 at 7:18 pm

For normal people, it means not being able to sell the house and watching you net worth shrivel.

Does this mean I’m not normal?

1) This is my home, not a house. It will be the kids choice to sell or keep or rent after I’m done here.

2) I stopped working for a paycheque over 30 years ago and stopped working for income almost 20 but still it grows…maybe not by leaps and bounds all the time but I am unable to outspend my income for some reason.

Yet I have everything I need and want…life is good.

Well, I do want one thing…a competent leader who will take the Conservative Party of Canada back from its Reform persona towards the historical Progressive Conservative roots Canadians deserve.

Two things I guess…Halle Berry as well. But neither look to happen in my lifetime. Sigh.

#20 Tim on 10.19.16 at 7:19 pm

Number one, Surrey is a hole. Number two, it is still 300,000 too expensive. Seriously, who would pay even half a million dollars to live in Surrey?

#21 Rick Fast on 10.19.16 at 7:19 pm

The perception that the “Chinese” are still in the game for Ontario (until, of course, Wynne finally introduces the foreign buyer tax), will keep Markham inflated for another 2 years. A semi now costs $750k in Markham!

#22 Smoking Man on 10.19.16 at 7:23 pm

At Seneca tonight to watch the debate in the losers loung. The drunks are already shouting Trump. I’m in good company, cleavland fans. Jesus it’s still an hour and a half away. The good old boys are drinking Jack early tonight

I pray no left wing loon, or Toronto Star reporter shows up here. Won’t end well for them.

He’s got to go postal on her tonight. Draw out the fangs of the vampire, then Holly water her in the face and enjoy the melt like the wicked witch in the wizard of Oz.

Globalism once done = Culling of the Herd.

We need balance, apposed rivals in the world to keep bad men from total control.

All men become bad eventually with no opposition.

If you want miss behaving people to behave good, give everyone in the room a revolver.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#23 AJ on 10.19.16 at 7:24 pm

#11 SJP
That house looks like a badly designed church from the 90s. I hope you’re not eyeing that. Ironically it also looks like it has no soul.

#24 Btown babe on 10.19.16 at 7:32 pm

Hi Garth

We own a $600000 detached 3 bed home in North Burlington. In 2012 we bought for 400k with 100k down payment. Should we sell? Where would we move with 2 small kids?

Please answer!!

#25 drydock on 10.19.16 at 7:43 pm

Lets talk about cats.
Cats are totally awsome.

#26 Smoking Man on 10.19.16 at 7:52 pm

Writing. If you do a book you can’t give out too much info. Let the reader figure out with there oun imagination how blue the sky is. What colour the chair is. How big it is.

Write fast pace action. On the eve of a Rediculos stupid book launch. Probably sell about 100. But that’s 100 more than I sold yesterday.

Yes to the individual, let the gang feast on each others souls.

I hate groups, cowards. Chicken shits needy of approval.

#27 Adam on 10.19.16 at 7:54 pm

West Vancouver Detached Sales Oct. 1, 2015 to Oct. 19, 2015 = 76
Oct. 1, 2016 to Oct. 19, 2016 = 7
A decline of 91%. This is reported sales on MLS so a few more will be added and back dated but Realtors in Vancouver are in panic mode. Now we have the start of the new mortgage rules. The size of the bubble in Vancouver is unprecedented. The first strike was the foreign buyer’s tax, then new mortgage rules. If interest rates go up in the US and Chinese real estate bubble pops, look out, it will get very ugly. Definitely a recession in Canada in the next 18 months. Collapse in house prices in Vancouver could go to 50%. Including Kitsilano.

#28 Victor V on 10.19.16 at 7:57 pm

Enbridge Inc cuts 530 jobs, 5 per cent of work force in Canada, U.S.

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/energy/enbridge-inc-cuts-530-jobs-5-per-cent-of-work-force-in-canada-u-s&pubdate=2016-10-19

#29 Smoking Man on 10.19.16 at 8:03 pm

Just noticed the pic, ha not offensive to me at all. In the world of demoizing nuts and vanilla ice cream I’m just thinking, an entrepreneur cashing in on Herdonomics.

The success will be short lived but why leave an easy buck on the table.

#30 Andrew Woburn on 10.19.16 at 8:13 pm

#2 not 1st on 10.19.16 at 6:47 pm
Once again, the govt gets it wrong. Good thing our smartest people have a solution and aren’t politicians.

CO2 turned to Ethanol
===============

Yeah I read this and thought, Hmmm.

Assuming this process can actually be scaled up to be a viable industrial process, it could kill nuclear power generation. Why would you take huge financial risks and take years to build a nuke if you can build a natural gas plant whose carbon output could recycled back into fuel.

Imagine a a solar array generating plant on day shift matched to a natural gas generator that handles the night shift. A carbon recyler/scrubber powered by solar and residual amounts of natural gas provides fuel for the natural gas plant. Not quite a free energy lunch but pretty close.

#31 Mean Gene on 10.19.16 at 8:20 pm

Assessed value July 2015 was $612,000.00… listing is still WAY overpriced.

#32 Mean Gene on 10.19.16 at 8:23 pm

Sale prices in the same neighbourhood went closely around assessed.

#33 bb on 10.19.16 at 8:23 pm

#20 Rick Fast on 10.19.16 at 7:19 pm

Condos aren’t going down in price either. Still lots of showings everyday in the condo where I rent.

Markham will be last to drop in prices.

#34 Sheeple on 10.19.16 at 8:23 pm

That house was worth maximum $625,000 in early 2015. Listed for $899,000 now and this is bad for the owner?

Also, McCallum is going to come to the rescue. 450,000 immigrants per year may finally be happening. Huge for housing in Vancouver and Toronto where more than 300,000 of these people will go every year. (100,000 for YVR and 200,000 for YYZ)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/immigration-system-increase-mccallum-1.3812749

#35 april on 10.19.16 at 8:23 pm

#18 – They might be waiting a very long time and some won’t be able to wait, or won’t want to.

#36 Victor V on 10.19.16 at 8:27 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/cra-recovers-240-million-in-real-estate-tax-fraud-probe-but-lags-in-bc/article32447204/

The Canada Revenue Agency’s crackdown on tax fraud in the overheated real estate markets of Ontario and British Columbia is bearing fruit, with auditors recovering $240-million in unpaid taxes and $12.5-million in additional penalties over the past 18 months, new figures show.

The money is being recovered as auditors focus on several issues identified in a series of stories in The Globe and Mail, including property flipping, efforts to hide capital gains and avoid paying sales taxes, and false ownership statements.

Still, the new figures show the CRA has a lot of catching up to do in British Columbia, where the federal agency doubled its auditing effort last year in response to widespread concerns over fraud and rising real estate prices.

#37 Smoking Man on 10.19.16 at 8:28 pm

24 drydock on 10.19.16 at 7:43 pm
Lets talk about cats.
Cats are totally awsome
….

Seek out a good therapist…

#38 inflate - inflate on 10.19.16 at 8:31 pm

To counter all this deflating-of-the-housing-sector-talk comes Poloz with interest rate lowering speak… 30% drop my ass…. The world economies are a mess,, The Fed, The Bank of Canada, all Central banks will take economic growth where ever they can it,,, even the housing sector… Until there are other growth sectors,,, they’ll be protecting this one,,, the housing sector….

#39 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.19.16 at 8:32 pm

@#2 nor first- All proceeds of our new carbon tax should immediately be earmarked to funding this research and developing the product.

Waddya think the chances of that happening are?

#40 the Jaguar on 10.19.16 at 8:36 pm

I confess to feeling a little ‘schadenfreude’ if this adjustment in values occurs as no doubt it will. I have complete faith in Garth. All those helicoptering parents who provided the down payment, went on title and on mortgage to give their kids what they felt was a ‘headstart’. If values drop and life events occur that require a sale they may in fact have given their kids the most valuable lesson of all – live within your means. Pretty sure most of the parents drank the Koolaid themselves in their quest to keep up with the latest fashion in granite counter tops. Imagine the many who could not resist the urge to use every dollar of their savings for the down payment, go further into debt using credit lines and credit cards to meet monthly payment obligations, gambling on a house of cards that would never fall or fold. All for what? Prestige? Getting gratification from others who admire your fine china, engineered hardwood floors and whatever else you carted out of Costco on three flatbeds? Reading the comments yesterday of that brave blogger who said he spent the last few months at the bedside of his mother who died in palliative care…he nailed it. We place too much value on material things and not the things that really matter in life. Which reminds me, Garth. Watch your step as Bandit takes you out on his daily walks. Winter approaches and it won’t be long before the snow flies. Until it arrives we still can still keep hope alive. Thank you Josh Donaldson.

#41 nonplused on 10.19.16 at 8:36 pm

A house is a means to an end, not a financial strategy. It’s kind of like a car, it needs maintenance, they tax the hell out of it, they both need lots of fuel, and eventually you sell it for scrap (steel = land). Houses last longer than cars, only real difference. How they make pressboard last longer than steel remains an ongoing mystery.

I sold and rented prior to the 2008 problems based on Garth’s advice and then re-bought later. Although it all worked out, the amount I saved on the new house wasn’t much different than what I paid in rent while not owning. I guess the difference was my money was in productive assets (that happened to go up a lot) rather than a house.

#42 @careeraftschool on 10.19.16 at 8:37 pm

I heard from an Accountant in Vancouver that many of his clients this year withdrew money from their RRSPs (paid the withholding tax) to buy real estate. The plan was to flip it at a huge profit and put the money back into their RRSPs by year end. I guess they will get a massive tax bill in 2017 if they don’t sell in next several months.

#43 BS on 10.19.16 at 8:44 pm

#18 Chaddywack on 10.19.16 at 7:16 pm

A lot if the prevailing thought in Vancouver is that people simply won’t sell their houses. They will just hold out until they can get their price, which eventually they will get. A lot of people are under the belief that the west side won’t decrease at all.

The prevailing thought is from people who have no clue. There are always people that *must sell* for whatever the market will pay. Death, divorce, job loss, major sickness, foreclosure, job transfer to name a few.

There are also going to be plenty of investors that realize prices are heading down and it is better to sell now at a reduced price than hold for even lower prices. Not everyone is a fool.

Finally there are move up buyers who will see the price of the property they want to move up into drop and then they will be willing to take less for their property in order to move up.

All it takes is one sale in an area to set a new lower price.

#44 Sidera on 10.19.16 at 8:48 pm

Kits and Leaside will get smoked along with every other Canadian property. There will be no one to catch a falling knife. When asset values drop, all spending relates to propping up the house market stop. There is an instant ripple effect theoughout the whole country.

It’s going to be one hell of a ride. Have fun

#45 Tim on 10.19.16 at 8:49 pm

Surrey is a shithole

#46 BS on 10.19.16 at 8:52 pm

#33 Sheeple on 10.19.16 at 8:23 pm
That house was worth maximum $625,000 in early 2015. Listed for $899,000 now and this is bad for the owner?

It is probably $100K less than they could have got 6 months ago. That would be bad for the owner in my opinion. Still better than what the owner will get anytime in the next 20 years. It is only down from here.

Also, McCallum is going to come to the rescue. 450,000 immigrants per year may finally be happening. Huge for housing in Vancouver and Toronto where more than 300,000 of these people will go every year. (100,000 for YVR and 200,000 for YYZ)

The immigrants coming in are from developing countries who show up with nothing. Cab drivers are not buying houses.

#47 MF on 10.19.16 at 8:54 pm

#14 Hairhead on 10.19.16 at 7:07 pm

“As much as the Trump-trolls and the T2-haters don’t want to admit, this is actually *responsible* government. It’s tamping down on an unregulated and unstable sector of the economy, causing short-term pain to avoid a worse disaster.”

-I agree with the last point of your comment about a diverse economy being able to whether storms, but not with the above two statements.

First off, this government is miles away from responsible. How can you forget we are billions in the hole after 1 year, and most of it was spent on useless endeavors related to the United Nothing?

Next, I do not believe these changes will have any effect on house prices here in the GTA, sorry. I do not trust anything these Liberals say because for them it is all about saying what people want to hear (they all lie, but I think these Liberals lie the most). Just like everything they seem to be doing, there is always a deeper, darker reason. In this case, I believe it was to placate the masses into believing something is being done about housing……while they are allowed to keep the ZIRP disaster going a little longer and enrich themselves a little more.

Here on the site, we had their supporters essentially silent for almost a year during all their screw ups until last week when we kept hearing how responsible they are. I still think them and their policies are terrible.

“”Sorry, the only thing such “free” markets (which aren’t really free) lead to are concentrated wealth, widespread poverty, boom-and-bust economies, political instability (that’s what Brexit and Trump are symptoms of), and the return of feudalism, with all its benefits.”

Sort of. I think Trump/Brexitism is a rejection of failed Liberal policies that seem to be taking over the west more than it is about free markets. The economic stagnation we are witnessing is also seen as a result of Liberal policies like ZIRP, NIRP and huge debts. Most see that at some point the can cannot be kicked any further down the road.

BTW, anyone read the pathetic story today about the Fed’s beige book? It came in just like they like it. Right in the middle between good and bad to keep us guessing. To be fair, Trump was the only one to call out the lies.

MF

#48 TurnerNation on 10.19.16 at 8:58 pm

For younger people all their political and economic “news and analysis” comes from comedy: The Daily Show or similar. Or. Leno monolog.
Even Letterman had a Charts and Graphs segment.

Funny story from the Killing Us Softly dept.:
I have two tubes of toothpaste at home.
Tom’s of Maine flouride-free and a national brand.
Only one reads: if more than normal amount for brushing is swallowed then immediately call your nearest Poison Control Center.
Poison control? They certainly do. WTF, over.

#49 Mandingo on 10.19.16 at 8:59 pm

Wow, now the house is only $900k, what a steal! It should be more like $450k, but that’s beside the point. This has been happening for months in maple ridge, Pitt meadows, poco, mission etc, lots of places still selling. It’s only makes the delusional think they are getting a deal.

#50 ShawnG in TO on 10.19.16 at 9:03 pm

i see the scenario where suburban will actually go up temporarily. the reason is simple. the moist is still moist. the horny is still horny. they just can ‘afford’ less. so, for the next little while, they are going further out to buy.
but the prices at core are going down, so the suburbs will go down too.

#51 IHCTD9 on 10.19.16 at 9:03 pm

#14 Hairhead on 10.19.16 at 7:07 pm
As much as the Trump-trolls and the T2-haters don’t want to admit, this is actually *responsible* government. It’s tamping down on an unregulated and unstable sector of the economy, causing short-term pain to avoid a worse disaster.

That’s only step 1, of course

Steps 2 – 10 will be to make a formal industrial strategy, focussing on broad goals of adjusting the proportions of various industry sectors’ percentage of the overall economy, rebalancing (as blog-dogs do) so that economic downturns and bubbly-hysteria have less of an effect on the economy, and also increasing and distributing well-paying jobs throughout the country.

_____________________

I have not heard a single word from T2 hating, Trump supporting folks regarding Wild Bill’s new rules outside a few comments about how millennials might as well just forget about ever owning a house.

As far a T2 stretching his hand over the economic waters of Canada and making any positive change whatsoever, that’s not happening. Trudeau is just along for the ride, he can’t increase global oil or commodity prices, he can’t wave his wand and make jobs appear out of thin air, and he can’t stop manufacturing from leaving outside of those corporations he has decided to bribe with millions of tax dollars to stay for one more contract – just long enough to clear his mandate.

No, all T2 can really do is damage control like keeping the cost of living low and minimizing federal deficit spending…

#52 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.19.16 at 9:09 pm

I wonder if SM will turn out to be right

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/after-first-2-full-months-since-conventions-trump-is-crushing-hillary-in-campaign-event-attendance/

Maybe

#53 Victoria - the original on 10.19.16 at 9:12 pm

I wonder what this means for Victoria?

#54 Man Tax on 10.19.16 at 9:18 pm

Just get around the “tax” by saying that you identify as a woman. Demand your rights as a woman. Problem solved.

Bonus marks if you film the interaction and upload it to youtube for LOLs.

#55 Smoking Man on 10.19.16 at 9:20 pm

Dabate on the big screen. Got the ear buds on listing to the song Black Betty bam balam.

Enduring life with the give no shit gene.

Such a happy alien plane..

#56 acdel on 10.19.16 at 9:29 pm

The real question is why the second largest country in the world with 35 to 36 million people ever had to pay the prices they had to within the last 10 yrs?? I am all for free enterprise but seriously paying 1,2,3 million for a property house worth not near a fraction of it is being asked for is just wrong.

The whole house/property turmoil is do to greed. The people in charge (I mean from brokers,real-estate agents,home owners, to politicians,etc) could give a shit! The whole system is disgusting but nobody cares until they get caught up in the fortunes or misfortunes and whine like spoiled brats or gloat like Trump!

#57 Contrary Canadian on 10.19.16 at 9:32 pm

Thanks to Garth’s sage advice, we loaded up on real estate in Arizona back in 2011-12 – up close to 100% when we add in the exchange rate swing on top of capital appreciation and nice steady cashflow (we have no plans to sell any time soon).

Sold our Vancouver condo (no mortgage) in Kitsilano last year, just as things started to go beyond crazy and into the looney bin. We were actually looking to buy a detached house (yep, wife, 2 kids, house horney, all that) in Tsawwassen when we sold our condo but things were clearly out of control and the math to rent and invest the money from our condo sale was too compelling.

So now we’re hunkered down happily in a nice comfy rental house that theoretically is worth $1.3Mish (if there were any buyers and soon to be much less) paying a measly $2500/month in rent and have been watching the air swooshing out of the local market for about 6 months now. Local realtors (and most financially stretched local owners/speculators who have bought in the last couple of years that we are friends with) are saying that “things will get back to normal in the spring.” Like the last few years has been normal :-).

Funny thing is, there appear to be a lot of speculative flippers (some foreign, but most appear to be Canadian to us) even out here in the burbs, as now that they’re unable to sell, they’re putting their houses up for rent and we see rental listings rising as fast as sales listings and rental prices drop even faster (better to get someone to cover at least some of your costs than none i guess). Easy to find nice big 3,000 square foot houses on quarter acre lots that are listing (or were recently listed) for $1.3-1.8M for sale with no takers that get listed in the $2800-3200/month range for rent (still no takers for most and prices are coming down – these were $3500-4k/month a year ago).

Here’re a few anecdotes from sleepy Tsawwassen:

We looked at this one last year with a $1.198M price tag, was listed over the summer at $1.498 and has dropped twice to $1.348M now. We thought $1.198 was too much back when things were less insane.

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=R2083696

This one was originally listed at $1.688M in July and the owners appear very motivated, they’ve dropped prices 3 times, now a total of $323k to $1.365. Open houses 2-3 days a week (we live in the neighbourhood) for the last month with no visitors that we saw.
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=R2099434

And finally, a good benchmarket for the craziness. This one sold last year (we looked at it too) for $1.023M in Feb 2015 and has been listed at $1.788M since March, 2016 with no price changes, although the MLS number has changed a few times to keep the days on market looking less bad I assume. These guys appear to have been just a tad too late to flip for an amazing profit but don’t appear to be too worried about it yet.
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=R2108057

Panic has definitely not set in yet in Tsawwassen other than maybe in a few isolated pockets. But if there is a flood of new listings in early 2017 and no uptick in purchasing that everyone is expecting for “the spring market” then I think we’ll start to see some real fear and more aggressive downward price pressure going into next summer.

We’re going to happily rent for the next few years and will only buy if and when the math starts to make sense. There’s something to be said for having a 7 figure nest egg that throws off a healthy and partially sheltered income with no debt :-).

#58 Grey Dog on 10.19.16 at 9:45 pm

Welcome to Unionville, Markham…in my hood, there is a group that is hanging in, been here 32 years plus, where would we go? The amenities here are great, including local Restaurant on Monday night…$10. For all boutique Pizzas plus bring your own wine; corkage fee to open $1! Construction for years on Hwy 7 for high speed buses and for better traffic flow…do I move once this project is finished? Local house for sale $2M out of the gate, insane…ps NOT in Berczy school district…that district which borders us commands a higher price easily. Welcome to Unionville. Until China steps in with plans to disrupt flow of money out of their country, for some reason Unionville is the place to plunk your money. Just cut your lawn AND take care of the swamp pond your new pool has become.

Grey Dog; looking out for your community.

#59 Nodebt on 10.19.16 at 9:55 pm

#23-Btown babe
Move to Lillooet it’s great!

#60 Metaxa on 10.19.16 at 10:01 pm

Chicken shits needy of approval.

The Internet definition of irony.

#61 ww1 on 10.19.16 at 10:19 pm

#23 Btown babe on 10.19.16 at 7:32 pm
We own a $600000 detached 3 bed home in North Burlington. In 2012 we bought for 400k with 100k down payment. Should we sell? Where would we move with 2 small kids? Please answer!!

Public Service Announcement : (I could probably post this every night.)

If you want personal advice, you really need to hire (pay for) it. Or accept the advice of the blogdogs here that might be worth what you pay for it (nothing). Your call.

Mr Turner posts daily general information about the world, finance, and real estate. He gets paid for personal advice – as does anyone else that you might actually want to follow.

#62 Winterpeg on 10.19.16 at 10:27 pm

Will these stress test changes affect those renewing their mortgages?

#63 betamax on 10.19.16 at 10:37 pm

Schadenfreude is a dish best served cold. Otherwise, it’s likely to be followed by a heaping dish of crow.

Bank of Canada is already close to cutting the interest rate. Wait till a slowdown in housing causes a slowdown in the larger economy, then they’ll drop it again.

It’ll be like ’08: a 15% correction in the YVR, then prices will start creeping upward again. As it is, condos and townhouses are still selling well, and rents have gone up in the past year.

Any premature gloating here — and there has been a lot of that lately — will be revealed as precisely that: premature. Enjoy your crow.

#64 betamax on 10.19.16 at 10:41 pm

From the Globe & Mail:

“The central bank….said the economy won’t get back to full capacity until “around mid-2018” – at least half a year later than it predicted just three months ago.

This expected delay suggests it could be another two years before the bank starts trying to push up interest rates….

“This is a bank that has precisely zero appetite for rate hikes, and seems to be keeping a flame alive for the possibility of rate cuts, should the need arise.” Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter said in a research note.”

#65 Winterpeg on 10.19.16 at 10:43 pm

Change of topic for a second. I get the occasional email from the Liberal party. ( I guess leftover from the election. I didn’t vote for em’. ) Anyway, they were advertising: “Get your “Commemorative sticker pack”, I guess for the Liberal’s one year in office. “sticker packs?” Seriously? Fund raiser for the Liberals. But “sticker packs???? Oy! Does anybody else find that ridiculous? Pure fodder for “This hour has 22 minutes?”

#66 Rational Optimist on 10.19.16 at 10:47 pm

“In Toronto, it’s affecting Hamilton and Oshawa.”

I’m balanced according to Garth’s rules of thumb, and general common sense, but I sold my property in Hamilton earlier this years because a lot of signs told me the nonsense couldn’t continue. I live in Waterloo, though, and when I just want to get drunk with a neighbour, that neighbour inevitably messes with my buzz by bringing up the market and the ‘bidding wars’ recently arrived here. A tenant gave notice the other week, having bought a house because prices had gone up so much that they figured it was ‘now or never.’ Usually this is a one minute conversation, but she seemed to want reassurance that they were right that things are just going to keep going up, since I’m a “property owner.” What do I know, is all I can say.

All this to say…if for psychological if not financial reasons, when is this nonsense going to end? Soon? Fingers crossed. I’m presuming Canadians’ collective creative juices can be turned somewhere more productive than real estate…though, again, what do I know.

#67 Rational Optimist on 10.19.16 at 10:51 pm

By the way, I just finished watching the debate. The Republican nominee has no doubt watched the SNL parodies, so should have avoided cutting off his opponent with “wrong.”

I’m certain the Democrat will win, but it was still chilling to hear someone say that the rest of the Western world should pay for its own defence, or that NAFTA should be scrapped…

#68 Me on 10.19.16 at 10:52 pm

7% male tax – don’t shop there.

#69 Not a Trump fan, but... on 10.19.16 at 11:13 pm

…I gotta be honest.

Tonight’s debate was a real surprise to me. Overall, the Donald devastated Hillary. Not at all what I was expecting.
This changes totally my expectations for the election and what may happen after.

#70 Tony on 10.19.16 at 11:24 pm

Garth what’s the word with lenders having skin in the game? Is there still chatter of having lender taking some of the risk off CMHC?

#71 WUL on 10.19.16 at 11:27 pm

Sombre mood tomorrow in Toronto. Jays and Leafs both collapse in a single evening.

Good time for a trade. Notley for Wynne (and a 4th round draft pick).

Calgary real estate will be fine. The air has been leaking from the gasbag out here for 27 months. A cushion.

#72 Tony on 10.19.16 at 11:31 pm

betamax on 10.19.16 at 10:41 pm
From the Globe & Mail:

“The central bank….said the economy won’t get back to full capacity until “around mid-2018” – at least half a year later than it predicted just three months ago.

This expected delay suggests it could be another two years before the bank starts trying to push up interest rates….

“This is a bank that has precisely zero appetite for rate hikes, and seems to be keeping a flame alive for the possibility of rate cuts, should the need arise.” Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter said in a research note
—————————————————————–
Canada is a house of cards. If the world ever figured it out we would be in trouble. Lucky of us we are a socialist/mix economy vs a mix economy which would of excluded CMHC. To be fair the world economy is a house of cards which would crumble over night if free markets were allowed. Then again the world wouldn’t be in this mess if they just let the free markets correct itself instead of this paper printing kicking the can down the road into a bigger problem. It has to be by design. sorry rant over.

#73 Tony on 10.19.16 at 11:33 pm

Winterpeg on 10.19.16 at 10:27 pm
Will these stress test changes affect those renewing their mortgages?
—————————————————————-
No, if that was the case more then 50% wouldn’t qualify. RE market is a house of cards and everyone knows it.

#74 Post on 10.19.16 at 11:33 pm

Jim Pattison is such a hypocrite. He was on BNN today complaining that sky houses prices are forcing employees in his Vancouver busineses to leave the city and quit their jobs.

http://www.bnn.ca/billionaire-jim-pattison-says-he-s-losing-staff-to-vancouver-s-sky-high-housing-prices-1.587594

What he failed to mention that his 60 story Burrard development sold out earlier this year at an average of $1400 sq/ft. He profitted handsomely off this. I didn’t hear him offer his loyal employees a discount.

#75 Welcome to Raisins on 10.19.16 at 11:44 pm

Trump was beautiful tonight. Beautiful. What a great man. May he enjoy the success that he has worked so hard to achieve.
Hill-dawg was deeply triggered!

#76 TOrenter on 10.20.16 at 12:06 am

Long time renter, no intention of buying anytime soon.

Garth, I am sure you have touched on this but I haven’t found it. I can only assume this will slowly increase monthly rent for us renters. Hopeful buyers having to save longer for down payments, tougher time getting a mortgage, therefore staying in rental properties longer causing a shortage in rental units?

Thoughts?

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.20.16 at 12:27 am

Sorry Garth!
Off topic but this breaks my heart.
4 native kids commit suicide.
One only 10 years old.
They never had a chance to have a balanced portfolio.

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.20.16 at 12:41 am

Sorry again.
But I just can’t get over it.
A 10year old killing herself.
What’s wrong with this country?

#79 Mike on 10.20.16 at 12:47 am

Not much will change for RE prices in Canada. Canada is special. I learned that when I didn’t buy a place in Vancouver thinking it is overpriced at 650k in 2015. Now on sale for 900k. How much can it drop, and it won’t!!

#80 chelsea on 10.20.16 at 12:58 am

With all this hype of a real estate downfall, I have not seen any huge correction as yet, especially Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands. Per all the projections, the change is supposed to happen in a few months. As I have stipulated prices are still over by 100 to 200%. The real estate market is dead, the selected homes are sold, and left is a dismal display of wrecks, asking for the most absurd prices, which is totally insulting to me. Sellers better smarten up, if they want a fair price for their home. And, the realtors better be nicer, and obliging to answer questions next time we view a home. Personally, I have been disgusted how we have been treated when we viewed homes recently, what would you expect anyhow when the housing market was hot, but, not now.

Happy Halloween…. you chumbs

#81 Spectacle it is... on 10.20.16 at 1:12 am

Astute commentary this evening, thanks blog dogs.

Just a “boots on the ground”, “fly on the corporate wall” perspective of late: have great opportunity to ask if the 15% tax, and other elements are having any effect , from their vantage point.

1) yes, many of their offshore clients who had bought to demo/build, have simply stopped the whole process. Greater vancouver area. Some had done 3-5 homes each, already.

2) put same Q to a successful Design/Engineering, Project management/builder company: his response is , prices are still sticky in Shaugnessy, UBC, Kerrisdale for Speculation (1 year Flipper ) mansions. His solemn words were that this whole, thing could stop at any moment .
Also said, it is so much easier for overseas money to come to Canada compared to Australia, or the U.S. .

#82 Ardy on 10.20.16 at 1:13 am

I type “estate” into the BOC search tool and it had some interesting results.

The first entry was for $1700 since 1933.

There are 15 pages of entries, many of them from long ago.

#83 Dragonslayer on 10.20.16 at 1:13 am

Geez. The Trump supporters on this blog are comical. Did we even watch the same debate? He flat out said he might not accept the election results on Nov 8. How low can you get? Has he no respect for democracy? That comment will play very badly in the minds of voters.
In no universe did Trump win that debate. He looked and sounded terrible and he’ll soon be joining the Blue Jays in Loserville.

#84 Slim on 10.20.16 at 1:19 am

About the only thing I can say about this last presidential debate, is that it’s finally over. Whoever may have won, it sure wasn’t the American people.

#85 Waitin In YVR on 10.20.16 at 1:20 am

This house was listed in Vancouver’s west side for $3,199,000 in the spring of 2016. After several months on the market the listing disappeared. It has now been relisted as a “New Listing” for $2,970,000.
http://www.jamiestewart.ca/r2115628-1566-w-65th-avenue

#86 Tony on 10.20.16 at 1:28 am

Re: #69 Tony on 10.19.16 at 11:24 pm

Those new rules will probably be enacted early next year.

#87 Petruha on 10.20.16 at 1:30 am

Real history of above mentioned house:
Discount is actually bigger -$88,131.00

Surrey 6474 179 STREET

22-Jul-16 $988,000.00
16-Aug-16 $949,900.00 -4%
24-Sep-16 $929,900.00 -6%
14-Oct-16 $899,869.00 -9%

#88 Phil Indablanque on 10.20.16 at 1:42 am

I believe the term is haircut. And we’re going to see the locks flying.

#89 Jason on 10.20.16 at 1:47 am

Wow, $50k off of $950, what a bargain ;-P
What’s completely insane in my neighborhood is $50k off $450k for a 1000sqft condo before delisting after just two weeks on the market. Another delusional seller who I’ll bet are waiting until spring to relist. The flood of listings in the GVRD this spring could be epic.

#90 #62 betamax...read this Blog more often on 10.20.16 at 1:53 am

I’ve posted over the past couple of weeks numerous YVR RE MLS listings showing that in the last 1.5 months, list prices have been reduced anywhere between 10% to 25% and new listings already reflect that price reduction.

By in large, YVR RE has ALREADY moved BEYOND the ’08 correction that you speak of.

AND those price reductions are all BEFORE the Morneau measures.

Morneau measures will drive home buyers to cheaper properties such as condos, for those that want to buy now, why the highly predictable uptick in sales there.

You may now eat your crow.

bsant

#91 bdwy sktrn on 10.20.16 at 2:20 am

#29 Andrew Woburn on 10.19.16 at 8:13 pm – i;m very dissapointed in you. (i guess you missed chem class?)

#2 not 1st on 10.19.16 at 6:47 pm – shame on your for dirtying this fine blog with that garbage.

#38 Bytor – just. go. away. – you just out dumbed mark. a dangerous, moronic, ill informed, horrendously misguided remark! (but sunny ways man!)
….

from that near fradulent, bernie madoff worthy link

” When they applied an electric current of just 1.2 volts, the catalyst converted a solution of CO2 dissolved in water into ethanol, with a yield of 63 percent. ”

pure scientific ignorance to say a ‘current’ of 1.2v.

that’s like saying my body weight is 65 miles/hour.
or i’m 3 hours tall.
meaningless garbage.

63% yield – $100 worth of electricity makes $63 worth of ethanol (which could then be burned to produce about $35 worth of electricity) –

at very best case, with efficiencies absolutely perfected (impossible of course) this process could act as a very , very poor/inefficient energy storage process(battery) with huge losses.

any suggestion that this process is not a big fat energy sink is fraud.

energy must balance – there is no more ‘free lunch’ of energy than there is a business that loses money every single day/week/month/year yet still turns a profit?
golden goose man.
fairytale.

even the offical paper written by the scientists(not the junk spinjob in the link) freely admit this has no economic potential.

jeez.

#92 JWD on 10.20.16 at 4:49 am

#56 Contrary Canadian

Thanks for the T town summary.

I’d be interested to hear more in the future. We’re likely targeting that area in 3-5 years. Been watching ourselves and shocked at the price increases since 2014. When they describe it’ll soon revert “back to normal” its laughable from what has transpired. I grew up in T town and in 40 years, nothing even close to this kind of craziness has ever happened. The agents and brokers help fuel the craze and people really start to believe the story – until your the one that spent 1.5m on an old box with a massive mortgage!

Oh- don’t forget the mall factor, ( the Bass shop! :) and the new bridge in what? 2022 maybe? Oh, and the asians are all moving here I’m told. Please….

The FOMO, greed, and speculation have been there in full force. People have really lost the plot and throw numbers out like its no big deal. Just buy a house for 1.3m! It’s a deal! It’ll be worth 1.5 soon…. You mean that house, the same one that sold for 525k 5 years ago?

Admittedly, I’ve been wrong on that market for years, but when mortgage rates rise, these new conditions are in place, and prices start to really adjust – the reality of an 800k mortgage on a T town box will come to light and those looking to flip for a quick profit will get stung badly.
I think its a travesty that Canada doesn’t have a zillow equivalent outside Atlantic Canada. These price adjustments you posted would most definitely contribute to a correction on the downside after this parabolic rise. The lack of transparency for the price history and changes is hard to believe in a first world country like Canada.

However, things always revert to normal and real estate some day soon will be the bad guy. Bubbles pop and speculators find a new focus. Much like what happened in the US 10 years ago.

Keep us updated

#93 I'm with stupid on 10.20.16 at 5:04 am

Yer right about Richmond, prices just keep going up. A unit in my complex sold for more after the Chinese Dude Tax than ever before.

I bought a t/h as a pied a terre so I could travel for work ( (outside Canada for over a decade already…I make more and pay less tax and have a higher standard of living and better quality of life outside Canada for sure) . Since uni the kids been using it as a flop while gains savings from his teaching gig.

In the 11 years I’ve owned it We’ve been making 45k a year average and apparently there’s no ceiling. I guess it’s the tight product though …3 beds 3 baths …under a million ( ( last sale 808k) .

I wonder why I’d sell though. It’s right downtown Richmond two blocks from the centre. It can only get more attractive as the city grows…and it’s booming with prc flooding in. Am I stupid.

#94 DoomandGloomer on 10.20.16 at 6:39 am

#19 Metaxa

“Does this mean I’m not normal?”
——————————————————————–

Yes.

But that’s a good thing.

#95 Ace Goodheart on 10.20.16 at 6:50 am

If you’re in Toronto and you’re detached or semi detached, you’re probably fine. Toronto condo: maybe not so fine, especially older buildings (condos lose value quickly once they get past 20 years old).

What is this insane nonsense right now with bidding wars in Barrie? Bidding over what? There is endless room to build more houses. Land is very cheap on the outskirts of town.

I don’t think the house price increases outside of the general Toronto City are sustainable. Or even warranted. But we’ll see. Not sure who is even buying these houses. Most of these “bedroom” communities don’t have the economy to support these prices. I suppose everyone is commuting?

#96 Nick on 10.20.16 at 7:06 am

In west Oakville where I’m renting(Lakeshore woods – priced out of market) homes have been sitting on the market for weeks if not months in some cases. I crused through the whole neighbourhood last night and I’ve never seen more home on the market. Something is definitely changing in this part of the world.

#97 Victor V on 10.20.16 at 7:09 am

http://www.bnn.ca/global-stocks-edge-higher-after-final-u-s-presidential-debate-1.588656

LONDON – Stock markets inched higher but the Mexican peso was mixed after the third and final U.S. presidential debate, which was judged to have given no clear boost to Donald Trump’s hopes of winning the White House.

The peso is seen as the chief proxy for market pricing of the Republican candidate’s chances in view of his promises to impose tough limits on immigration. It climbed to a six-week high against the dollar in the immediate aftermath of the debate but was down on the day in European trade.

A win for Democrat Hillary Clinton next month – now predicted clearly by polls – is also seen as opening the way for a rise in interest rates which a number of U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers have all but promised for December.

#98 maxx on 10.20.16 at 7:31 am

#18 Chaddywack on 10.19.16 at 7:16 pm

“A lot if the prevailing thought in Vancouver is that people simply won’t sell their houses. They will just hold out until they can get their price, which eventually they will get. A lot of people are under the belief that the west side won’t decrease at all.”

That’s a strategy based on nothing more than a sense of entitlement and past history.
However, I believe that some may get “their price”. Could be long after the meter has expired though, biologically speaking. Possibly never.
Meantime, daily lifestyle status quo prevails, and we all know what many live like, trying to “hang on”.
Better love the hanging-on lifestyle as well, because it’s a fixture for the very long haul.
Hooray for .99 cent, no-name tuna, KD and brick-licking, eh wot?
Wild Bill is a true national hero. Took the first steps towards turning our economy around.
…and saved some of the herd from jumping off of the proverbial cliff- putzes can’t help themselves.
So glad I sold all re at the peak.

#99 Damifino on 10.20.16 at 8:06 am

#68 Not a Trump fan, but…

…I gotta be honest. Tonight’s debate was a real surprise to me. Overall, the Donald devastated Hillary. Not at all what I was expecting.
————————————

I’m not exactly a Hillary fan either, but I guess I was watching a different debate than you. She mopped the floor with that fool… in a calm and casual way.

#100 The Nature Boy on 10.20.16 at 8:11 am

“#54 Smoking Man on 10.19.16 at 9:20 pm
Dabate on the big screen. Got the ear buds on listing to the song Black Betty bam balam.

Enduring life with the give no shit gene.

Such a happy alien plane..”
————————

Why is the alcoholic allowed his crazy rants?

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.16 at 8:14 am

@#68 Not a Trump Fan….
Really?
Which debate were you watching?

I thought ( as did the majority of political pundits) thought Trump made a fool of himself.
“200 generals will back me up…”
” Crooked Hillary……”
“Its gonna be so awesome. I’m gonna fix things”
” She’s so wrong, so wrong”

Same tired, hackney, meaningless generalizations spewed forth with rolling eyes, pursed lips and mugging for the camera.
He also couldnt keep his hands off the water glass. A tad thirsty Donald? Feeling a little guilty?

“Do you really want this man to control the nuclear codes?”

He’s done.

#102 Bottoms_Up on 10.20.16 at 8:24 am

#23 Btown babe on 10.19.16 at 7:32 pm
————————————–
Sell, invest your $350,000 capital gains, and the income generated ($2000/mo) should be able to rent you a similar house, without having to pay property tax and repairs, while protecting your nest egg!

#103 drydock on 10.20.16 at 8:52 am

36 Smoking Man on 10.19.16 at 8:28 pm

24 drydock on 10.19.16 at 7:43 pm
Lets talk about cats.
Cats are totally awsome
….

Seek out a good therapist…

………………………………………….

Seek out a good 12 step program.

#104 Damifino on 10.20.16 at 8:53 am

#79 chelsea

“The real estate market is dead, the selected homes are sold, and left is a dismal display of wrecks, asking for the most absurd prices, which is totally insulting to me.”
—————————————-

Just as there is no crying in baseball there is no ‘insulting’ in real estate. To be insulted is to append a useless emotional component to something that is only a potential business transaction.

There are prices people want and prices people will pay. What shakes out from that is called the market. The market is utterly unmoved by anyone’s indignation.

#105 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.20.16 at 9:17 am

Looks like Trump won the 3rd debate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/10/19/trump-won-tonights-debate/

http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/20/flash-poll-donald-trump-won-final-presidential-debate/21587773/

Maybe he has a chance. Maybe SM will be enshrined in the hall of fame of predictive geniuses

And why did Clinton dress like Christian Bale in the debate?

http://imgur.com/3i16f7N

#106 The Nature Boy on 10.20.16 at 9:28 am

Off topic however I strongly feel that the average western world taxpayer is stupid.
They get suckered by the leftists cheap media outlets and do as they are told. Trump is not perfect but seems to be an option compared to Hillary, the candidate of the Establishment. Hillary says she will create jobs but had plenty of chances to do so in the past 25 years. Crazy suckers the voters are…
We got Justin to run Canada into the ground…
Yanks can get Hillary to finish off the US.

#107 james on 10.20.16 at 9:30 am

#99 The Nature Boy on 10.20.16 at 8:11 am

“#54 Smoking Man on 10.19.16 at 9:20 pm
Dabate on the big screen. Got the ear buds on listing to the song Black Betty bam balam.

Enduring life with the give no shit gene.

Such a happy alien plane..”
————————
Why is the alcoholic allowed his crazy rants?
………………………………………………………………….
This alcoholic goofy idiot savant is Garth’s second dog after Bandit. Garth has an undying love for dogs and is hoping for the old dog learning a new trick.
To bad this one craps all over the house, pisses on the furniture, eats anything that hits the floor, chases his tail, licks himself uncontrollably and continuously chases cars. Signs of a mental handicap in a dog include an inability to learn commands, struggling with potty training, unnecessary and extreme fear, and socially awkward behavior. These signs normally occur early on in the dog’s development. Mentally handicapped dogs will often exhibit signs similar to some children with autism. In social settings, they will often behave at one of the extreme ends of the scale — either being overly friendly with new dogs and people or overly shy. They will often be overwhelmed by too much noise or commotion going on around them and will have trouble processing too much at once. The best thing for a dog with mental challenges is to keep it in an environment that has little stimuli and to keep it in a routine. Abrupt changes to the dog’s usual routine can bring about extreme stress because it is too much for it to process all at once.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1JRaGJpzc8

#108 pBrasseur on 10.20.16 at 9:32 am

Poloz reveals BoC was close to cutting this week

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-actively-discussed-more-stimulus-but-uncertainty-convinced-policymakers-to-hold-rate-instead

Half a cent loss this morning on this news

Well I guess Mark’s CAD moonshot will have to wait a bit longer…

#109 james on 10.20.16 at 9:34 am

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.20.16 at 8:14 am

@#68 Not a Trump Fan….
Really?
Which debate were you watching?

I thought ( as did the majority of political pundits) thought Trump made a fool of himself.
“200 generals will back me up…”
” Crooked Hillary……”
“Its gonna be so awesome. I’m gonna fix things”
” She’s so wrong, so wrong”

Same tired, hackney, meaningless generalizations spewed forth with rolling eyes, pursed lips and mugging for the camera.
He also couldnt keep his hands off the water glass. A tad thirsty Donald? Feeling a little guilty?

“Do you really want this man to control the nuclear codes?”

He’s done.
……………………………………………………………..
He was done the first time he opened his mouth. He acts like a spoiled ten year old brat with rich parents. Oh yes I forgot he was a spoiled ten year old brat with rich parents. I guess he never really grew up!

His new nickname should be Der Gropenfuhrer.

#110 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.20.16 at 9:37 am

#56 Contrary Canadian on 10.19.16 at 9:32 pm
Thanks to Garth’s sage advice, we loaded up on real estate in Arizona back in 2011-12 – up close to 100% when we add in the exchange rate swing on top of capital appreciation and nice steady cashflow (we have no plans to sell any time soon).

Great story! What’s the rental yields in arizona right now? What were they back when you started buying?

#111 james on 10.20.16 at 9:41 am

#104 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.20.16 at 9:17 am

Looks like Trump won the 3rd debate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/10/19/trump-won-tonights-debate/

http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/20/flash-poll-donald-trump-won-final-presidential-debate/21587773/

Maybe he has a chance. Maybe SM will be enshrined in the hall of fame of predictive geniuses

And why did Clinton dress like Christian Bale in the debate?

http://imgur.com/3i16f7N
……………………………………………………………….
Why did Donald Trump dress like spongebob square pants? Trump’s suits are expensive — he favors Brioni suits, which can cost about $7,000 apiece — but ill-fitting. Poorly fitted suits suggest a lack of attention to detail. And for a candidate who, according to fact checkers, seems to have a problem when it comes to details, these suits only underscore his lack of discipline in that area. Whether it’s staying on message or quoting the nation’s trade deficit (Trump says it’s $800 billion, fact checkers say it’s $500 billion) or anything else. The suits also serve as a reminder that to many people Trump’s candidacy itself simply isn’t a good fit for the party or for the country.

http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/fashion/why-donald-trumps-suits-dont-fit-20161013-gs245b.html

#112 Prairieboy43 on 10.20.16 at 9:44 am

Watched debate last night. Summary: Hillary polished speaker, likes to debate control discussion. The Don, I am the greatest, theme rubs people wrong way. He cares more about results.
On Congressional Reform Trump strong advocate vs Hilary High Fives to Congressional members.
Prediction? Flip a coin.
PB43

#113 Smoking Man on 10.20.16 at 9:57 am

Ha and I thought it was only me. Seems I’m not alone. Hate being in tribe.

Time to quit,

https://www.google.com/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/phil-collins-and-the-rise-of-mid-lifers-drinking-their-way-to-ob/amp/?client=ms-android-samsung

#114 Eks dee Sipal on 10.20.16 at 10:40 am

Brian Ripley, would you take a look at this chart of CNY/CAD, and overlay it on your Vancouver chart of Oct 5th? It seems to me that we are in the Bull Trap phase on housing prices.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=CAD&view=10Y

http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

With BOC inaction, we will probably see a prolonged bull trap phase, until the inevitable free fall collapse I have predicted of 50% across the board. (Almost like the twin towers)

This chart shows what ALWAYS happens:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2009/Mar/Money-Week_clip_image001.jpg

Bill Cosby, as king Zuma of South Africa is Will Smith’s daddy. Hence, the Fresh Prince moniker. Inside joke, they’ve been laughing at you this whole time. – XD

#115 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.20.16 at 10:44 am

#107 pBrasseur on 10.20.16 at 9:32 am
Well I guess Mark’s CAD moonshot will have to wait a bit longer…

Those who have predicted a rise in the CAD over the last 4 yrs are gonna have to find another way to recover their losses

#116 Mr. Frugal on 10.20.16 at 10:44 am

#110 james on 10.20.16 at 9:41 am
#104 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.20.16 at 9:17 am

Looks like Trump won the 3rd debate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/10/19/trump-won-tonights-debate/

http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/20/flash-poll-donald-trump-won-final-presidential-debate/21587773/

Maybe he has a chance. Maybe SM will be enshrined in the hall of fame of predictive geniuses

And why did Clinton dress like Christian Bale in the debate?

http://imgur.com/3i16f7N
……………………………………………………………….
Why did Donald Trump dress like spongebob square pants? Trump’s suits are expensive — he favors Brioni suits, which can cost about $7,000 apiece — but ill-fitting. Poorly fitted suits suggest a lack of attention to detail. And for a candidate who, according to fact checkers, seems to have a problem when it comes to details, these suits only underscore his lack of discipline in that area. Whether it’s staying on message or quoting the nation’s trade deficit (Trump says it’s $800 billion, fact checkers say it’s $500 billion) or anything else. The suits also serve as a reminder that to many people Trump’s candidacy itself simply isn’t a good fit for the party or for the country.

http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/fashion/why-donald-trumps-suits-dont-fit-20161013-gs245b.html

______________________________________________

I missed the part about the wardrobe. But, I did take note that Hillary is cool with abortions 1 day prior to birth. Donald wants to create jobs, cut taxes, obliterate ISIS and defend the constitution. What a scoundrel! (Note: This is sarcasm for those millennials that have not encountered this form of humor).

#117 MF on 10.20.16 at 10:48 am

#107 pBrasseur on 10.20.16 at 9:32 am

Of course they discussed cutting. That’s the only thing those morons know how to do. That news is expected.

MF

#118 MF on 10.20.16 at 10:50 am

#111 Prairieboy43 on 10.20.16 at 9:44 am

Of course Hillary is polished speaker. She is a career politician. She has been literally trained on how to lie clearly and precisely right to the camera and your face.

The irony is that is one quality that actually is forcing people to Trump’s side.

The reality is, regardless of what Trump says, he is not Hillary Clinton -who is a continuation of Obama (who was a failure).

No smooth talking with change that.

MF

#119 MF on 10.20.16 at 10:52 am

^^

“Will”

The new Ios has terrible autocorrect.

MF

#120 Eks dee Sipal on 10.20.16 at 11:02 am

Did Adolf Hitler draw Disney characters?
The director of a Norwegian museum claimed yesterday to have discovered cartoons drawn by Adolf Hitler during the Second World War.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1579629/Did-Adolf-Hitler-draw-Disney-characters.html

Of course, they were one and the same man, after all!

#121 Damifino on 10.20.16 at 11:17 am

#106 james

Thanks to a brilliant Firefox Greasemonkey script I haven’t seen hide nor hair of Garth’s second dog in many months. There’s only an empty space where he used to relieve himself daily.

A handful of others have gone the same way. You’ve no idea how much the neighborhood has improved since. Of course, Garth’s first dog is always welcome but he knows better than to waste his life talking.

#122 Fed-up on 10.20.16 at 11:25 am

#33 Sheeple on 10.19.16 at 8:23 pm

Also, McCallum is going to come to the rescue. 450,000 immigrants per year may finally be happening. Huge for housing in Vancouver and Toronto where more than 300,000 of these people will go every year. (100,000 for YVR and 200,000 for YYZ)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/immigration-system-increase-mccallum-1.3812749

====================================================

Hundreds of thousands of new Canadians flocking into only two cities each and every year. Gee I wonder why they’re such a rental and housing supply shortage?

Can you folks not read? The story says McCallum is rejecting a think-tank report calling for a 50% immigration increase intended to stimulate economic growth. In other words, ain’t happening. Has Trump Hoovered your brains? — Garth

#123 nubbers on 10.20.16 at 11:46 am

Smartalox @16
Saw a Facebook post yesterday by a friend who is an agent, crowing about how she helped a nice lady buy an awesome townhouse on Van’s Westside, for $1.2M.

The reason for the celebratory post was the effort required to close the deal before restrictions came into effect on the 17th.

I guess that nice lady in Van was the Greatest Fool. After this, anyone who buys property into the crash is either too rich to care, desperate or just a common or garden idiot.

Presumably Garth will have to change the name of the blog sometime?

#124 MoneyFromA$ia on 10.20.16 at 11:55 am

“Not predicting a US crash considering 30%or more”

What a pile of bull KAKA!!!

My moms house in Richmond BC went as high as 1.1M then dropped to $800k then went back up to 1.3M. All in the last 4 years.

Nobody admits it, mentions it… It was all quiet at that time while international buyers were on the fence watching in suspense with what was going to happen when the US was voting to raise the debt ceiling. Once that was done, the next day the home was sold for that low price 800k (30%).

I’m sick of the bull Kakka media….

We’ve had crash like volitility already. Who knows where the bottom lays but I’m not about to compete with cheap debt with my hard earned cash.

#125 Bob on 10.20.16 at 11:59 am

Remember this place in Garth’s blog a few months ago… Was $3,888,000… now $2,988,000

http://www.thecolourofrealestate.com/r2117926-2348-oliver-crescent

#126 Nemesis on 10.20.16 at 12:04 pm

#DebateHighpoint,Or… #cnnVanJone’sCogentAnalysis…

https://youtu.be/SAXlgCQD42s

#127 Debate Watcher on 10.20.16 at 12:17 pm

DELETED

#128 siddelly on 10.20.16 at 12:28 pm

Code Red at CMHC means that contingency planning for the balance sheet going into the red requires huge swaths of pricey North Vancouver real estate come onto the market, which has for the last 20 years been used as mountain biking trails. This would help cover default losses from underwater millennials. God bless the taxpayer!

http://www.nsnews.com/news/mount-seymour-trail-users-miffed-by-no-trespassing-signs-1.2369151

#129 price adjustments on 10.20.16 at 12:49 pm

The problem with the mentioned listing and others brought up in comments is how do we measure the price drops? Unless there is a recent sale of comparable property serving as price ‘benchmark’, the price drops, although showing a definite trend, do not reflect the market drops. Just because a delusional fool decides to list his/her pile of crap at a completely ‘out to lunch’ price do any of the following downward adjustments mean anything? For example, a house across the street went on the market this past summer at $3,688K. After two months, handful of viewings and no sale, was taken off the market. It got re-listed about a month or so ago at $200K reduction. Seems like a lot but the property is only assessed at $1.9 mil. (and in reality even that is overestimated by factor of 3). So is the market declining or creating more delusional sellers?

As a side note, since the re-listing, there has been noting but crickets. Not even one showing.

For those who think the recent changes would only affect firs time buyers – it’ll be a domino effect. If first time buyer can’t purchase the entry level house or condo, the condo owner won’t be able to sell and upgrade to a house, the house owner won’t be able to sell to upgrade to mcmansion, the mcmansion owner won’t be able to sell to retire etc. So the whole market will be affected, the wanna-bees and the existing owners.

For people complaining about being priced-out etc. It’s hard to believe you’re concentrating your efforts on trying to ‘get-in’ (at all cost) even if it means a life-time of financial shackles instead of going ‘on RE strike’. Use the internet/social media to spread the word and then watch the dominos starting to fall (as per above). The sooner you do this, the sooner you’d be able to attain that dream of yours (if you still wanted) at a make sense price.

Lastly, the rents won’t be affected by the new rules, if anything they will trend downward price-wise. If owners can’t sell they will need to rent out to cut the costs = more rental units available = decline in rental prices.

#130 bdwy sktrn on 10.20.16 at 12:52 pm

disaster! last sale in the hood (a week ago) went for under asking price!!!

ask $1,688,000 sell $1,650,000
1225 GARDEN DRIVE

38k or a whopping 2.2% under ask for a home that is decorated perfectly for a 70-80yo italian couple – in other words, hideously.

could have picked this up for under a mil in 2013.

#131 Ace Goodheart on 10.20.16 at 1:15 pm

#124 Bob:

“Remember this place in Garth’s blog a few months ago… Was $3,888,000… now $2,988,000”

http://www.thecolourofrealestate.com/r2117926-2348-oliver-crescent

Mortgage payments on that house are over $12,000 per month with 20% down. That requires after tax income of $144,000 per year, or pre tax income of $230,000 per year. And that is just to pay for the house.

If they are looking for a comfortable 60% mortgage, 40% living expense split, then a person purchasing that house would have to earn $240,000 per year AFTER TAXES (or $400,000 per year pre-tax).

Who is buying these houses?

#132 Braj on 10.20.16 at 1:18 pm

#106 james on 10.20.16 at 9:30 am

I can’t believe you spent all that time typing such garbage. SM at least has some soul. You just sound like a hygienic cleansing product.

#133 Dewflicker on 10.20.16 at 1:19 pm

“As stated here yesterday, detached houses in Leaside or Kits will hardly be affected”

To believe that you’d have to accept a house in Kits is worth $3-4m. It’s not and, interestingly Chinese guys don’t think so either. They much prefer Pt Grey. But both will be lower, possibly much lower.

#134 Dups on 10.20.16 at 1:22 pm

No stock market worry!
At minimum Hillary will win with 60% vs 40%.

50% of the voters are women, out of them assume 35% will be voting for Hillary
50% of the voters are men, out of them assume 25% will vote democratic.
That gives Hillary 60%

That’s it, no fear. Carry one with normal life.

#135 JimH on 10.20.16 at 1:45 pm

One only has to read this note written by George H.W. Bush and left on the desk in the oval office for incoming President Bill Clinton to see clearly the huge gulf in plain human grace and dignity that separates Donald Trump from other contenders who have lost elections:

“January 20, 1993
Dear Bill, When I walked into this office just now I felt the same sense of wonder and respect that I felt four years ago. I know you will feel that too. I wish you great happiness here. I never felt the loneliness some Presidents have described. There will be very tough times, made even more difficult by criticism you may not think is fair. I’m not a very good one to give advice; but just don’t let the critics discourage you or push you off course. You will be our President when you read this note. I wish you well. I wish your family well. Your success now is our country’s success. I am rooting hard for you.
Good luck – George”

Class and grace. This is how it’s done; how it should be done.

After last night’s debacle, the Donald Trump candidacy is finally over. Unfortunately, his shameful circus will go on.

#136 Nemesis on 10.20.16 at 1:59 pm

DELETED

#137 A on 10.20.16 at 2:06 pm

Btown babe,

I’m living in same town with quite same property :) (bought in 2011, 350k with 50k down)

I assume you have about 350k value in your house (mortgage should be about 250k left if no refinance).

With 2 kids I’d suggest do NOT sale it if everything is OK to you (school, commute etc). As mentioned you’ll need 2k monthly to rent SAME kind of property in SAME location. With 350k invested it will be VERY optimistic to get 2000 monthly (24k per year) on 350k investment. 24k on 350k is ~7% while expected return for balanced portfolio is 6% WITH dividends re-invested (e.g. you COULD not have 6% return AND getting investment income SAME time). Without this it will be ~4% yearly capital appreciation (which is comparable with normal pace of RE appreciation in such city as Burlington) and 2-3% of dividend income available to spent (which bring only 10-12k per year, half of needed). And do not forget about tax on investment income as MOST part of 350k (200-250k) will go to taxable account…
Either you’ll sell and move to some cheap rent location (depends on your ability to work at such place…) or “downsize” to some kind of 2bdr apt (which I’m not going to do with kids :) )

#138 jess on 10.20.16 at 2:09 pm

so where does that leave other cities?

Over the past 18 months, the CRA looked into 13,403 files in Ontario (mostly in the Greater Toronto Area)

What are the key areas of compliance risk in the real estate sector?

There are five main areas of concern:

questionable source of funds
property flipping
unreported goods and services tax/harmonized sales tax (GST/HST) on the sale of a new or substantially-renovated property / GST/HST new housing rebate
unreported capital gains
unreported worldwide income
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/gncy/cmplnc/rlstt/menu-eng.html

========

#139 Fed-up on 10.20.16 at 2:10 pm

Can you folks not read? The story says McCallum is rejecting a think-tank report calling for a 50% immigration increase intended to stimulate economic growth. In other words, ain’t happening. Has Trump Hoovered your brains? — Garth

300000 per year is still having its impact. This was long before Trump came along. If you feel that there is adequate supply for this kind of influx in Toronto and Vancouver then please show us. There is nothing anti-immigrant about this statement. It’s simple math.

#140 Brokerizer on 10.20.16 at 2:21 pm

Bank of Montreal’s preferred shares ETF $ZPR is looking a whole lot better than last year. Market thinks Poloz doesn’t lower rates for a while. Let’s hope the market is right.

Buying here. The 5% dividend build my savings, while I wait to see house prices back off in Montreal. From what I read, the new mortgage rules have removed enough first-time buyers from the market.

#141 Reasonfirst on 10.20.16 at 2:22 pm

Here’s an interesting one (I know the people that sold it in spring so it has caught my attention:

10800 Southdale Road, Richmond, BC (MLS® Number: R2117389)
– Sold for about $1.375M in the spring.
– Listed for $1.3888M for over 70 days since August.
– Just bumped up to 1.5988M after mortgage changes

There is a house on the same block, same age/style, slightly larger lot but maybe not in as good shape listed for $1.388M.

I know they were planning on rebuilding on spec but cold feet.

hmm. The only guess I can make is that they want to see the competing property sold by making it look relatively good and then eliminate the direct completion moving forward. but really? Any ideas?

#142 Context on 10.20.16 at 2:37 pm

What is the hidden motive behind the 7% Man Tax? I need some clarification as my manhood is worth at least 10% while walking through this store. Am sure all the ladies who have darken my door would agree.

#143 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.20.16 at 2:40 pm

The only way Trump beats Clinton is if he can translate the massive attendance advantage at his rallies into EC votes.

http://truthfeed.com/fact-check-trump-vs-clinton-battle-of-the-rallies-heres-the-shocking-attendance-numbers/19536/

In many cases, Trump rallies are attended by 20, 30 and even 40x more people than Clinton rallies.

Trump turns away more people at his full-capacity rallies than Clinton has attending her rallies. That’s insane.

There might be some left-wing voter exhaustion. Or Clinton exhaustion.

Media says the race is close. Boots on the ground say otherwise. Don’t know who’s right until Nov 8.

#144 betamax on 10.20.16 at 2:47 pm

#89 I read Garth’s posts, not yours

Only read that one because you bolded my name.

Housing prices are sticky, even in an all-out crash.

All we’ve seen so far is a change in the sales mix and a cherry-picked group of sellers who had to reduce their over-bloated asking prices — and that’s been happening for a while now.

I don’t need to eat crow; I’m not one of those here engaging in premature schadenfreude. Learn to read.

#145 dr. talc on 10.20.16 at 2:54 pm

The finance minister held a press ‘CONference’ in which he announced some changes that affect Some home buyers, and Some strawmen foreigners; he then obfuscated, and dodged every direct question.
As he spoke changes were uploaded to cra website that affect EVERY CANADIAN HOMEOWNER,
But those arbitrary retroactive rule changes were not in his media event press ‘CONference’, he was lying by omission on live tv.
people who disposed of homes in 2016 did so under different rules. Retroactive rule changes wasn’t done in eastern bloc communist governments,
if the government doesn’t respect the law
You don’t have a government.

#146 N on 10.20.16 at 3:18 pm

http://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/lineup-for-new-home-sales-starts-six-days-early-1.3119028

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN12K29J?sp=true

#147 Tiger on 10.20.16 at 3:46 pm

This house from the article is listed again for lower price

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/06/11/hitting-the-fan/

2348 Oliver Crescent Vanouver,BC
http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2117926/2348-oliver-crescent-vancouver
Jun 11, 2016 – $ 3,680,000
Oct 20,2016 – $ 2,988,000

#148 bill on 10.20.16 at 3:50 pm

#90 bdwy sktrn on 10.20.16 at 2:20 am
perhaps they meant faradaic efficiency?
I dont think the ‘oak ridge boys’ intend to feed the world with this discovery ,
eventually though it may turn ‘excess’ co2 in the atmosphere into something useful…

https://www.ornl.gov/news/nano-spike-catalysts-convert-carbon-dioxide-directly-ethanol

#149 jess on 10.20.16 at 4:01 pm

South Korean prosecutors have indicted key members of the founding family of the Lotte conglomerate with embezzlement and tax evasion.

The allegation was that money moved invisibly – and illegally – between the 60 subsidiaries,

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37655548

chaebols
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37655548

#150 Context on 10.20.16 at 4:25 pm

For those that have listed their condos and have the future need to rent have located a new area of interest as an option. It won’t be for everyone but the price is right as the choice is wide on the subway line with buses taking you everywhere; huge rooms all renovated; underground parking for about $100 a month; parks all about; library; some take pets; and goods and services at hand in an exclusive neighbourhood. These are the heritage establishments from the 1930’s with there own parkettes all renovated at Yonge and Lawrence and the rents won’t break the bank. The subway there can be gamed with entrances and exits bringing you out into an expansive territory much like Bloor and Bathurst too.

#151 rjrt81 on 10.20.16 at 5:01 pm

#117 MF on 10.20.16 at 10:50 am
#111 Prairieboy43 on 10.20.16 at 9:44 am

Of course Hillary is polished speaker. She is a career politician. She has been literally trained on how to lie clearly and precisely right to the camera and your face.

The irony is that is one quality that actually is forcing people to Trump’s side.

The reality is, regardless of what Trump says, he is not Hillary Clinton -who is a continuation of Obama (who was a failure).

No smooth talking with change that.

MF
——————————————————————–

because putting the country back on track after the biggest financial collapse since the great depression caused by the republicans is a huge failure. the only failure was the republicans blocking everything he proposed simply because it came from him. you have a very strange grip on reality. but i guess this is all just a msm conspiracy theory. right. cutting your nose off to spite your face. super smart.

#152 devore on 10.20.16 at 5:24 pm

And wow, no one even commented on the story yesterday about how there “only” $200k on the mortgage left? On the house they grew up in and bought 20+ years ago? Which didn’t even cost $200k to buy to begin with? And now there’s “only” $200k still owing on it?

The face of Canada indeed. Apparently it is totally ok now to owe more for a house than it cost to buy it. It’s not like the money was even leveraged into investments.

#153 Contrary Canadian on 10.20.16 at 5:51 pm

#109 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.20.16 at 9:37 am

Great story! What’s the rental yields in arizona right now? What were they back when you started buying?

———————————————————-

Gross rental yields back when we bought were 9-10%. Current gross rental yield if you were to buy today is down to ~6% based on our current rent and recent Zillow valuation estimates (one day we’ll finally get a real Zillow-like data source in Canada – just gotta wait until TREB loses their appeal).

Rents have risen pretty nicely in the last couple of years, first few years they were pretty stagnant. That said, we’re seeing price and rent growth starting to slow, things have more than normalized and it’s probably time for a breather in most parts of the US (and correction in some).

#154 Nemesis on 10.20.16 at 5:58 pm

#JustTheMessenger,Or… #IfIt’sGoodEnoughForTheHill..

#155 ...detached houses in Leaside or Kits will hardly be affected on 10.20.16 at 6:18 pm

Please define what your idea of “hardly” means for these detached “low end” homes in Kits:

$2,250,000 Reduced $249,000 (Aug 11) 2735 8 Avenue W
Vancouver, Kitsilano. 1849 ft2. 2 Bed, 1 Bath, 78 days.

$2,595,000 Reduced $203,000 (Sep 23) 3436 7th Avenue W Vancouver, Kitsilano. 2359 ft2. 4 Bed, 3 Bath, 66 days.

$2,829,000 Reduced $371,000 (Sep 12) 1848 Collingwood Street Vancouver, Kitsilano. 3390 ft2. 6 Bed, 4 Bath, 51 days.

The other high end [priced] homes are “too big to fail”.

bsant

#156 premature schadenfreude on 10.20.16 at 6:42 pm

#143 betamax

…prices are sticky, even in an all-out crash

That was oxymoronic, at best, a non sequitur in logic.

10% to 25% list price drops in 1.5 months is not sticky, that’s a crash. Not a hard landing either, as it has not finished [landed].

I’ve been thru 2 such RE crashes and cannot believe how fast YVR RE is going down in price.

If you look at the early 80s and 90s crashes, those price drops took at least a couple of years to happen, not 1.5 months.

Do not assume observation by many of the Commentators here is revelry in the misfortunes of others.

bsant

#157 SI2K on 10.20.16 at 9:13 pm

#7 AJ We moved from the Annex to Guelph at the middle of this year, and we’re running into people we knew from twenty years on Bloor West all over the place. University town destination of choice, apparently, for former U of T – orbit people. I mention this bc they’re tearing down Bloor West in essence from Bathurst to Brock starting in spring ’17, so a bunch of families are fleeing west from that area specifically. There’s your price bump in Guelph in part, I bet.

#158 betamax on 10.20.16 at 11:23 pm

#155: “If you look at the early 80s and 90s crashes, those price drops took at least a couple of years to happen”

Housing prices sticky, even in a crash. No oxymoron.

#159 Future Expatriate on 10.23.16 at 10:42 am

Let me guess… pic is from a lingerie store?