The Future

dog-paw-modified

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

 

What goes into a forecast?

There are an endless number of specific components—all the propeller-head stuff: valuation analysis, assessing macro-economic data, etc.—but in broad terms it comes down to three simple things.

The first is determining prevailing market sentiment. Every forecast is really just a trip to the horse track, so the first step is to establish how fast everyone else thinks a particular horse will run—the stated odds. This year’s US election may be the greatest (and most disturbing) horse race of all-time.

As a portfolio manager I normally would largely ignore the US presidential election, but as we all know, this election is different. For the first time ever, I have had to at least consider repositioning portfolios based on the likelihood of a Republican victory. However, we haven’t adjusted our client’s portfolios once in response to Trump’s rampaging presidential campaign. My first task was (and is) to determine the market odds of Trump winning.

While odds have varied, Trump has consistently been a long-shot. Following last week’s infamous Access Hollywood–bus video with Billy Bush—or “Bushy” as he apparently likes to be known to the ladies—Trump’s odds of winning now sit well below 15%. The Chicago Cubs, which have been blanked since 1908, currently have an almost 3x greater chance of winning the World Series.

FiveThirtyEight (Top) and PredictWise (Bottom) Overwhelming Favour Clinton

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doug-2

Source: FiveThirtyEight, PredictWise

Once I know the posted odds, I then have to overlay my own opinion of which horse I think will win. I know that Hillary Clinton has had some horrendous stretches during this campaign including last month when she called Trump supporters “deplorables” and almost took a header onto a New York City sidewalk. This was really, really bad, but notably, she didn’t relinquish her lead in the polls. Further, what I’ve always been able to take for granted is Trump’s incredible lack of discipline and propensity for self-sabotage. There’s no shortage of examples, but attacking a Gold Star family in August and more recently conducting a 3 am Twitter war against a former Miss Universe and then directing his followers to view a sex tape are amongst the best. And the Access Hollywood–bus video is the finest—if that’s the right word—example of all.

If he does happen to gain ground prior to Election Day (God appearing from the skies personally commanding Democrats to vote Trump?), I have confidence that the momentum will be short-lived. At this point, I have a high degree of confidence that the betting odds and polls will be correct. In fact, I believe Clinton’s chances of winning may be even better than indicated because of the potential for a higher-than-normal turnout from minority voters. In other words, I see no reason to reposition our client portfolios ahead of the US election results.

But what about Brexit, Dewey defeats Truman, and so on? Yes, there’s risk of the unexpected, but what little I do know about US politics is that the president has to share power and work with Congress in order to have his or her policies supported. Trump doesn’t work well with anyone, hence the current GOP civil war and massive turnover within his own campaign leadership, and there are enough moderate Republicans that even if Trump was to win, he would likely have difficulty enacting policies that would truly damage the US economy.

A miraculous victory might create temporary volatility, but doing long-term economic damage would be an even tougher challenge for him. We also run a balanced portfolio for our clients, so this is what the bonds are for: to weather the unexpected short-term storms. Longer term, if we were to start to see actual shifts in the US economy then we’d adjust client portfolios accordingly, but we can’t make changes based on the damage Trump might inflict, particularly as he has little chance of even being elected. Now granted a Trump win would give him access to the nuclear launch codes, but if he forgoes a nasty late-night tweet and instead launches nukes, no portfolio in the world is going to save you.

Finally, what’s the third ingredient involved in forecasting? Luck. I have to hope that Hillary takes her antibiotics and that there aren’t more incriminating emails leaked from “400-pound” hackers. However, I’m confident that luck is on my side. And I’m willing to bet there are more damaging Trump videos to come, so our clients probably won’t actually need their bonds, just their vomit bags.

With Or Without Tic Tacs, Women Really, Really Don’t Like ‘The Donald’

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Source: FiveThirtyEight
Doug Rowat,FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

250 comments ↓

#1 mark on 10.14.16 at 6:10 pm

There’s only one ingredient you need to know about forecasting – don’t.

#2 Ex-Cowtown on 10.14.16 at 6:18 pm

Nobody “likes” Trump. He’s a pig. No question. But Hillary is a thief, liar and criminal with a history of bad judgement calls and an explosive and abusive temper.

Next to that, Trump looks pretty good.

#3 Randy on 10.14.16 at 6:21 pm

DELETED

#4 Garth M on 10.14.16 at 6:21 pm

Whoa!

#5 Buddy O' Pal on 10.14.16 at 6:22 pm

Look, Doug, Garth, we get it. Thing is, this election is different. Inherent bias in a preffered outcome is hindering the worlds clarity in the real issues at hand. Sure, we could kick the can down the road another 4years but sentiment and angst will continue to grow untill a more politically correct version of Trump evolves. A financial blog this is but if we consider ourselves to be good humans we should try to lool past our portfolios and realize what the corrupt political elite are doing to the world. Personally, i dont think Trump is the guy but the next dude may well be. Lets get this shitstorm overwith and maybe we might see the change Obama promised. Someone in the comments daid it best the other day. I would rather crazy than corrupt.

#6 Ex-Cowtown on 10.14.16 at 6:27 pm

Oh, and I forgot to add that Hillary is also the poster child for the old adage “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” When she started hanging with Al Gore again you can see the shape of pillaging and corruption that a Hillary presidency will bring.

My opinion is there are a lot of people that will have polling booth conversions and at the last minute will take Trump’s comment “What in the hell do you have to lose?” to heart.

#7 Self Directed on 10.14.16 at 6:34 pm

Can’t wait for Hillary to just win already and get it over with, so we can get on with QE, interest rates, the economy, and the markets.

Other thoughts: If Hillary drops dead while in office, does Bill become president again, or does Kaine? Would Bill need to leave the white house? Or can he still sleep in the master bedroom? I guess Bill is just along for the ride… just like when he was President!

T2 is relieved he won’t have to deal with a Trump victory. That will never work, but it would have been fun to watch him try.

#8 paulo on 10.14.16 at 6:35 pm

as a dual citizen i know that most Canadians are amazed and dumbfounded by US politics elections state side especially presidential ones are the stuff america is made of and her citizens take them very seriously and are much more involved in the process
I don’t think this guy has a chance but having talked to a number of my friends state side, i think there is a slight possibility. Americans tend to default to the old adage:
better to deal with the devil you know. i think the world understands trump in the case of Hillary its not so clear
just a thought for you to ponder doug maybe a couple of chips on the Insurance marker would be appropriate, what say you

#9 I'm stupid on 10.14.16 at 6:37 pm

Under normal circumstances I would agree with the polls but Trump perplexes me. Brexit demonstrated just how unreliable polls can be. I personally don’t understand how anyone could vote for a selfish, egocentric person like him. I have a bad feeling people being polled are embarrassed to openly support him and on Election Day the ballots will tell a different story.

I also disagree with your statement regarding voter turnout as a plus for Clinton. I think a higher voter turnout will benefit Trump. The deplorables will be out in force.

#10 Self Directed on 10.14.16 at 6:39 pm

What happened to ZPR this week?!!

https://www.google.ca/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1476484685455&chddm=8211&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=TSE:ZPR&ntsp=1&ei=LF4BWNDWEoWIigLiv4jwBQ

I love it, but wondering… why?

#11 Context on 10.14.16 at 6:41 pm

A very convincing analysis so now know how to bet the Mexican Peso against the American dollar to make me some green; you had better be right.

#12 conan on 10.14.16 at 6:43 pm

The way I see it:

If Trump wins = OMFG!!! capital will flee

If Hillary wins= Continuation of loser ME policy and WW3

Hmmmm neither are good

#13 Polls R Phake on 10.14.16 at 6:44 pm

Polls mean nothing today. The same thing applies to the media.

#14 broader mind on 10.14.16 at 6:48 pm

Who cares about US politics. I want to know why Canadian prefered’s had a little bump today ? Any thoughts.

#15 The "T" Spot on 10.14.16 at 6:51 pm

Who knows what could happen, but your assessment about Trump being incapable of doing any long term damage is sound.

That map is a strong argument for ending female suffrage. Hillary is about as corrupt and evil as anything that ever coursed its way down a birth canal, and if she and her cronies keep provoking Russia we could be in for some unpleasant times. Get your clients into defense contractor and Haliburton shares if she wins.

#16 Smoking Man on 10.14.16 at 6:52 pm

Will be responding sortly. Doug you raffled my feathers with this post. Need a few wines first get the creative mojo going. Just have the delete button hand ready when I cut to JD

#17 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central on 10.14.16 at 6:53 pm

A wildcard, people’s candidate who currently enjoys a national lead over an established ruling class marionette, and either tied or leading in battleground states, according to you, has a 15% chance of success?

You haven’t convinced me Mr. Rowat. And I am a dual citizen.

A sell-off, if one occurs under Trump, would be a fantastic opportunity for any speculator worth his salt.

I don’t seem to understand why this blog blindly assumes the establishment narrative.

#18 Pepito on 10.14.16 at 6:59 pm

Seriously? As a portfolio manager, THAT’s how you build your forecast? Does not inspire confidence.

Would be much more interested in the valuations analysis and macro economic data crunching.

#19 Corban on 10.14.16 at 7:01 pm

Is it saturday already? Trump scares me, but a part of me things the americans should get what they deserve.

#20 Basil Fawlty on 10.14.16 at 7:02 pm

What about Hillarys finger on the nuke button?. Is it not Clinton who shows ongoing belligereance towards Russia and Putin, while Trump calls for negotiation? Americas attacks on Syria and Libya bother started with Clintons support, as Secretary of State, along with the US sponsored coup in Ukraine.
In regards, to the polls supporting Clinton, it sure is funny that she gets 200 people to here polical rallies, while Trump gets 10,000 and sells out.
I am no fan of either, but lets at least get the facts in order.

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.16 at 7:08 pm

The “angry white male” vote is no longer enough to win an election. Trump hasnt figured that out yet.

Just curious as to the potential for voter iregularities in predominantly Republican leaning states. what with the rule changes in some states requiring 2 or more pieces of govt. ID ( which most minorities, statistically, wouldnt have) to vote. Even though the new voter ID “rules” have been struck down upon appeal….expect weirdness to happen a la Florida “chad-gate” in the Bush -Gore slugfest.

#22 Victor V on 10.14.16 at 7:10 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/tougher-mortgage-rules-could-dampen-condo-townhome-sales/article32373441/

“We believe that the new measures – that include more stringent and uniform qualifying rules for mortgage insurance across mortgage types – will both speed up and harden the landing that we previously expected to occur in the year ahead, although they are unlikely to cause a crash.”

– Robert Hogue, Senior Economist, RBC

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.16 at 7:10 pm

@#2 Ex Cowtown
“a thief, liar and criminal with a history of bad judgement calls and an explosive and abusive temper. ”
*******************************************
geez , for a second there I thought you were talking about Trump……..

#24 Self Directed on 10.14.16 at 7:12 pm

VANGUARD FTSE CANADA ALL CAP IDX ETF (TSE:VCN)

Down 1.57% since Sept 6th:
https://www.google.ca/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1476486176336&chddm=10948&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=TSE:VCN&ntsp=1&ei=K2ABWMnbLcjSiwLK2oHoAg

Could VCN take a further hit because of the coming mortgage rule changes? I don’t expect Canadian Banks to crash, but they could be taking fewer profits in the months ahead.

Here are VCN’s Top 10 holdings:

1 Royal Bank of Canada
2 Toronto-Dominion Bank
3 Bank of Nova Scotia
4 Suncor Energy Inc.
5 Canadian National Railway Co.
6 Bank of Montreal
7 Enbridge Inc.
8 TransCanada Corp.
9 Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.
10 Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

DOLlarama Inc. is 43rd on the list. Really?!

#25 Debtslavecreator on 10.14.16 at 7:15 pm

It will be Clinton and in the very unlikely event Trump wins the votes don’t worry they will blame Russia for hacking and nullify the vote and Joe Biden will take over
Not a tin foil plan either – being talked about by well connected people
No Donald
SP500 most likely to rise to the moon in 2017 along with the USD – it would take a breach of 1800 on the weekly to suggest the big one has started
The bearish sentiment among the retail masses is as bad as I have ever seen it and we are about 3% or so from the highs
Very unlikely to collapse here and now but volatility will be high for sure
Go Jays Go !

#26 The Wet Coast on 10.14.16 at 7:18 pm

The latest numbers for Forign buyers in the Vancouver market “But Diana Petramala, the economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, who wrote the note out Friday, says the impact on Toronto is no where near what was happening in Vancouver. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said at the peak up to 20 per cent of buyers were foreign until the tax went into effect on Aug. 2 in Vancouver” I guess we know it was somewhere between 0-100%….lol

#27 Keen Reader on 10.14.16 at 7:18 pm

Didn’t you also predict a rate rise in Sept? Definitely not liking either candidate but could there be a better chance for Congress to keep the crazy in check, should he surprize us?? That might actually be the least-damaging scenario…

#28 GenXer on 10.14.16 at 7:20 pm

So tired of this election. Can wait until it’s over and we can get back to the free financial advice. Thankful for everything you guys do. Keep up the good work.

#29 Buddy O' Pal on 10.14.16 at 7:21 pm

Garth’s right – the doomsayers rule this blog. A small glimpse of the larger systems at play and what people are really thinking. He nuts hes wild and hes a perv and its a complete slap in the face to the main stream politically correct DBs. Who would have thought this guy Trump would be the one to bring it all full circle!!

#30 Blacksheep on 10.14.16 at 7:22 pm

That email was sent to Trump Oct/13/16

#31 Ridin with Biden on 10.14.16 at 7:23 pm

Hillary is the worst status qou political operative I’ve ever seen. I hope all the Bernie supporters stay home.
Trump is a bafoon and disgrace to American politics.
Every year the candidates get more clownish this includes canada with a dimwit PM who wants to ram a carbon tax on a recessionary country with a huge housing bubble that only contributes % 1.5 of global green house gas. Nice work true-blow that’s exactly what Alberta needs

#32 Trojan House on 10.14.16 at 7:25 pm

Doesn’t matter. Trump will win.

#33 conan on 10.14.16 at 7:26 pm

Garth: Yo Doug!
Doug: Yes Sir Garth?
Garth: I am hitting the Jay’s game. You need to do the blog thingy today.
Doug: Meh………….OK

#34 Brian Ripley on 10.14.16 at 7:33 pm

“propeller-head stuff”

The September WTO report projects that export growth in 2016 from North America will drop from their April 2016 guess of 3.1% to their current forecast of 0.7%.

I have copied their 30 year chart here:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/uncertain-uncertainties

The current levels of peak housing prices in Vancouver and Toronto requires much more labour input from a labour pool that must compete for income not just locally but globally as well and that competition is going to won by those with better education and mobility resources than their peers.

My back of the napkin calculation is that in Vancouver 5.5 wage earners are required to qualify for an 80% loan to value mortgage when buying an average priced single family detached house. In Toronto 3.3 buyers are required. In Calgary 1.6 earners and in Montreal 1.1 earners are required.

#35 Joe Schmoe on 10.14.16 at 7:34 pm

JT’s “fiscal policies” or Trump:

Which will have a longer term negative impact on the Canada’s financial well being?

I wish Canadians would pay as much attention to our politicians as much as the folk across the border.

#36 Warren- the lagging indicator on 10.14.16 at 7:41 pm

I am so proud of the US electoral process and the objective media reporting. It proves to me that Liberals in general are intellectually honest, independent and deep thinkers.

On another note, I hope all have come to terms with the fact that interest rates will surely rise starting in December.. Canada will follow 8 to 12 months later. Govern yourselves accordingly.

#37 Smoking Man on 10.14.16 at 7:42 pm

The Future is mine.

Well not really, got a feeling I don’t have much left which is fine with me. That’s why I don’t give two shits about my confessions.

But this is what you don’t get, or maybe you do but your lively hood depends on not broaching certain issues. I forgive you.

Not everyone can trade Forex remotely from some island somewhere in the world ensuring his great, great, grandkids never need to work a day in their lives if they don’t want to. Bull shit of course.

But it’s like this doggie Doug. Building 7, Every dude on the bay street and wall street with an IQ over 2 knows the score, It’s only talked about in extream drunken states of mind in downtown bars. That’s not important.

You like every other portfolio manager, economist, and pollster out there was educated by the same textbooks.

You can’t code, you’ve never bucked a rivet or went door to door. My guess Good family, University, memorise and regurgitate, Off to slay the world with an obedience certificate in hand, getting assholes coffees, sucking up while you intern. Pathetic.

You guys, Bay street and Wall street have no clue what’s happening here. My Herdomiter. App that has three twitter windows have 12 of them up, 36 views into the mind of the herd with different balanced followers, every new tweet get’s ADO’d into SQL server , every night a stored proc spits out a report, that I bet on the next day. 98% accurate.

No matter how much faith you have in your schooled view of outcomes. You don’t have a Herdometer. I do. Trump in a landslide. If not the algos in the voting machines won. It’s the only way.

You don’t need a Herdometer to see the absolute criminality of MSM Hillary, the BIlderburgs, Davos, and Bohemian Grove’s Globalism agenda. It has enriched the elite in the USA and punished the little people.

It’s out there on display right now, for everyone to see, their not even hiding it anymore.

Now that my mug shot has been blasted out for the world to see. I’ll never work on Bay or Wall street again, this pathetic blog has reach. I’m cool with it.

I’m a fiction writer now. You’ll love the book, but will never tell anyone you read it.

Deplorable Smoking Man.
PhD. in Herdonomics

#38 Self Directed on 10.14.16 at 7:50 pm

#33 conan on 10.14.16 at 7:26 pm

Garth: Yo Doug!
Doug: Yes Sir Garth?
Garth: I am hitting the Jay’s game. You need to do the blog thingy today.
Doug: Meh………….OK
———————————
LOL! I once had a friend that had a 75 house newspaper route. I was 12. She would call me every now and then, sick, asking me to please do her papers. I was paid $1.00. It got to the point where I was doing them almost every day!! One day, I went to drop off the paper bag at her house. Her Dad answered the door instead, handed me $70.00 and said “This is what she makes delivering papers every 2 weeks. Take it. She will be doing the papers from now on.” Lucky for me, he got wise… because I wasn’t catching on! I hated that paper route. Evidently, so did she.

#39 Cici on 10.14.16 at 7:56 pm

Doug, you’ve gotten ahead of yourself…we’re only Friday!

#40 Sheane Wallace on 10.14.16 at 7:56 pm

So Doug,

Now you are expert in politics?

You credentials please?

A professional portfolio manager needs to understand and assess every risk that might affect clients’ assets. Ignorant comment. You are capable of better. — Garth

#41 Andrew Woburn on 10.14.16 at 8:00 pm

Canada PM warns Brussels: if you won’t do a trade deal with us, what is the point of the EU?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/13/canada-pm-warning-to-brussels-if-you-wont-do-a-trade-deal-with-u/

#42 ww1 on 10.14.16 at 8:04 pm

#2 Ex-Cowtown on 10.14.16 at 6:18 pm
But Hillary is a thief, liar and criminal with a history of bad judgement calls and an explosive and abusive temper.

I’ve been hearing this for years from the right wing media. And I’m still waiting for someone to post any data proving it.

Looks more like the old saying that f you throw enough mud, some of it will stick.

The Republicans in the US Congress have spent tens of millions of taxpayer dollars investigating her and trying to find something to pin on her.

Nothing.

Under the circumstances, if she is in fact a thief and criminal, it would be hard not to argue she is the smartest thief and criminal in history.

#43 Context on 10.14.16 at 8:08 pm

Doug Rowat has simply made a hypothetical presentation and its the best I have yet to see on the net. No reason to have a sissy fit over it or to attack the facts that he has documented.

#44 trymo on 10.14.16 at 8:09 pm

Hmm this poll seems to have women support trump:
https://www.reddit.com/r/TheRedPill/comments/57ejwp/following_trumps_lewd_remarks_he_drops_in_poll_of/

#45 For those about to flop... on 10.14.16 at 8:12 pm

I hope the legacy of this election is that they find a way to shorten the process…

M42BC

#46 Deplorable Dude on 10.14.16 at 8:22 pm

As Scott Adams said over on his blog, assuming HRC wins you can blame the next 4 years on women…assumi g we survive that long, given all the unsubstainiated rhetoric/sabre rattling the US is throwing out about Russia….

And word on the grapevine is Wikileaks has obtained the 33000 deleted emails and will be dropping some well timed bombshells over the next 2 weeks including some pretty damming videos of HRC…..we shall see….

This is basically Nationalism vs Globalism…or if you just watch the MSM…..who Trump allegedly groped a third of a century ago…..

#47 Ace Goodheart on 10.14.16 at 8:22 pm

If everyone remembers their eighth grade history they will recall something called the “Balkan powderkeg”, a person by the name of Franz Ferdinand, and the causes of WW1.

We are today sitting on top of such a powder keg and it is called Syria.

The players will be Russia and the USA. I do not know who will play Franz.

The trick is figuring out who will set this off. Trump or Clinton. My money is on Trump. So likely you don’t want him to win (WW3 will be messy- likely you will not survive it).

At any rate that is the news at 11. Read your history books peeps

#48 acdel on 10.14.16 at 8:34 pm

Off topic, R.I.P Jim Prentice, condolences to all families of lost one’s. You were a good man Jim.

#49 Joseph R. on 10.14.16 at 8:34 pm

The only obstacle to Hillary’s victory in November’s presidential election is complacency: as the polls are publishing more and more an easy election for her, the electorate may simply not see the point of showing up to the poll to vote for her and therefore, paradoxically, can cause her to lose.

That phenomenon likely explained the victory of the “leave” side of Brexit rather then faulty statistical analysis. After all, the polls were showing a close results’ victory on either side, within the margin of errors.

#50 Ronaldo on 10.14.16 at 8:35 pm

Yes, polls. I recall very well the Alberta election of 2012 when the polls stated that the Wildrose Party would sweep into power with 62 of 87 seats. The actual results were PC 61 and Wildrose 17. I don’t pay much attention to polls. We may be in for quite a surprise on November 8th. As for the markets, I don’t think it will make much difference who gets into power once the dust settles. Am thinking that the markets are near correction territory anyway and so on August 30th I went to 75% fixed and 25% equity. My balanced portfolio was up 9% to end of August so figured why take a chance on maybe getting another 5 or 6% when it could just as easily drop 10 or more. Nothing wrong with taking some off the table now and sitting back and watching the fiasco play out.

#51 Smoking Man on 10.14.16 at 8:36 pm

Doug into the Jack now. Cash on the ear buds.

Let this be the last one. I’m calling carpet burns on smokes head trying to find the room.

The trees in Selemenca ny. The casj cage of colors ..
The retarded thumb trying to type…

The freind less loser happy as shit.

To much work for me.. me and me = Heaven.

#52 the Hammer on 10.14.16 at 8:43 pm

To those who would repeal the 19th Ammendment

Roy Cohn was the lawyer who defended Trump in the 1970’s when the US Justice Dept. brought suit against Trump for discrimination. Trump has answered questions regarding these suits with, “these charges were settled out of court with no admission of quilt.” As some one who has sued and been sued hundreds of times, Trump knows better than anyone that settling out of court does not prove innosence it just means you bought your way out of a jam. Roy Cohn was also the driving force behind Joe McCarthy and his committee on un-American activities and mentored present-day Trump political advisor, Roger Stone. For 50 years these people have used bullying and innuendo and intimidation as a means to whatever end. They were conceived in a sense from the seminal dribblings of people like Goebbels and Himmler… Beat ’em up, throw ’em out and if they disagree with you, lock ’em up. The Republican Party was fragmenting before this, but these clowns will disintegrate it. Trump is an embarrassment, a clown, a snake oil salesman. What is scary though, is the people in windowless little rooms of envy who support him. America and Canada are wonderful places to live and about 98% of the people in the world would trade places with all us millionaires who frequent the steerage section of HMCS I’m Not Happy And it Must Be Somebody Else’s Fault. Not a Hillary fan, but seriously…

Oh yeah, Trump Jr. says that maybe if women can’t stand sexual harassment, maybe they should get out of the work place and go teach kindergarten. You just gotta love these guys.

#53 Tony on 10.14.16 at 8:48 pm

#9 I’m stupid

Polls are fake that’s why you can’t rely on them. Polls are uselss propaganda in hopes of influencing the weak minded. Trump has a real shot of winning which is why he is being attack. The ironic part is trump is more Democrat and Hillary is more of a Republican which is why the corporate media is attacking trump. People who claim the media is Liberal are clueless to reality. Media = corporate interest = Republican. Hillary has sell out to corporate interets. I hate Republicans

#54 Doghouse Dweller on 10.14.16 at 8:48 pm

#10 Self Directed
#14 broader mind

Dead cat bounce
A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or a bear market that is followed by the continuation of the downtrend .

#55 Smoking Man on 10.14.16 at 8:56 pm

In the losers loung at Selemenca, biker dude with a black tee shirt with skeloton on it. His bitch giving me gogo eyes.. ladies you saw the Smokey and Gartho pic . Can you blame her….

I could take this bastard down with an arm lift and a smell of the pits. Haven’t showerd in a few days.

Must be some form of demented happiness.

#56 Mark M. on 10.14.16 at 8:58 pm

All about Trump today Doug, nothing about that sweet grandmother from “Central Casting” Janet Yellen?

I trust you heard her say she thinks what this “crisis” needs is for the Fed to run a “high pressure economy?”

Leave aside the bit about this being a “crisis” ten months after we were told the “data dependent” Fed was finally embarking on interest rate normalization. “Liftoff” she and your boss called it.

When the markets didn’t throw up on it, she let the world know, the data was so good there would be four more hikes in 2016. That’s when, surprise, the data turned on her.

So here we are, ten months later, no further hikes. Lots of promises though, and today word that this economy might benefit from allowing inflation to surpass the current target of 2%

So Doug which Janet Yellen do you believe, the one who wants to hike interest rates, or the one who wants more inflation?

There will be no rate hike in 2016, and none in 2017. The Fed’s next move is a rate cut, can’t wait to hear you rationalize it.

#57 toronto1 on 10.14.16 at 9:00 pm

Im not sold on Hillary winning yet……….. in my mind its 80% vs 20% chance, BUT its the swing voters that decide.

Trump is taboo- nobody will say publicly or in polls that they support him but i dont believe the polls, think its a lot closer then what is stated.

Trump is like that question guys always get before getting hitched, when they are being vetted, did you ever sleep with a call girl?, have a one night stand? have you ever inhaled? of course not darling, that disgusting….. (opps forgot to mention that vegas weekend where all three happened…….)

he is the protest vote and stands for everything against the system– with the electoral college in the US i doubt he can win but i wouldn’t count him out yet.

Both Trump and Clinton are like two people covered in tar, any dirt will stick to them as they have both been around to long– Trump in his shady business deals and Clinton in here long tenure in politics, Clinton foundation etc.. question is who has more dirt on them come election day.

MSM and the power establishment are in it for Clinton, hands down– BUT who knows what other elements are at play on the other side of the trade and what they have on Clinton- yet to be released.

Both sides have waited until the 9th inning to really through down the scandalous rhetoric, lets see what still to come.

#58 M on 10.14.16 at 9:00 pm

Puttycats from Tza Greaterfool:

get on with the daily business and get used with “tza Donald”. the clown will win…which will be much much better than the hillary alternative anyway.

Now.. market will crash anyway (say S&P500 to 1800 in 2 easy moves) within the next 11/2 months – is floated now by jenny-tza-fed but after the election it won’t matter.

Focus on the Cdn depression brought by the housing market crash for it will be great fun and opportunity to make like thieves.

Cheers

#59 Ace Goodheart on 10.14.16 at 9:02 pm

Computer downloaded a new update. Has a little screen in the left hand corner now that says “ask me anything”.

Been shying away from it for a week now because it sounded kind of personal.

Tonight I asked it if it was an Octopus.

Apparently it’s still searching for the answer.

Will let you know….

#60 [email protected] on 10.14.16 at 9:08 pm

DELETED

#61 [email protected] on 10.14.16 at 9:09 pm

DELETED

#62 BS on 10.14.16 at 9:12 pm

With Or Without Tic Tacs, Women Really, Really Don’t Like ‘The Donald’

You only put out half the story. The same analysis shows Trump would in a larger landslide if only men voted.

I guess you can say then Men Really, Really, Really Don’t Like Hillary.

http://www.businessinsider.com/this-is-what-the-election-map-would-look-like-if-just-men-voted-on-election-day-2016-10

#63 Smoking Man on 10.14.16 at 9:24 pm

DELETED

#64 KokoG on 10.14.16 at 9:24 pm

I’m surprised how narrow minded both Garth and Doug are regarding the US elections and how they blindly favor Hillary.
Hillary loves to start wars so she can feel good about helping refugee children she helped bomb.
Trump is a clown and says some crazy things along with some cold hard truths. People don’t like hearing the truth so they cling to the crazy one liners

Neither Doug nor I ‘favour’ either candidate. We have no vote or influence. Just perspective, which you seem to have lost. — Garth

#65 Sunburned Canuck on 10.14.16 at 9:27 pm

For all of you who reside in Canada and feel you have control of the political pulse…TAKE NOTE:

I am a dual citizen who lives in the USA and follow events carefully in both Canada and the USA. It is laughable that the polls suggest Trump only has a 15% chance of winning.
WRONG!
If you were down here you would see, hear and believe that his chances of overtaking that lying, corrupt, self-centered, fake,delusional maniac called Hillary are real. There are bumper stickers, signs, slogans, flags, and many other expressions of support for a Trump.
YOU DONT SEE ANYTHING EVEN CLOSE FROM THE HILLARY COHORT. In fact, I saw one rogue bumper sticker on a vehicle in our city and was afraid for that person since the Trump movement is so strong and unified. He is not perfect, but neither were the Kennedys and look how revered they were.
America is on the critical edge of permanently sinking into the abyss of debt, crime and moral decay. The citizens here cannot take any more liberalism from Obama or his party. Even black African Americans see the cancer of what Democrats represent to their culture. Everyone should see the Documentary called “HILLARY’S AMERICA” to shed some light on why the Clintons have hit the lottery in achieving personal wealth into the hundreds of millions of dollars.
A nice return for being a public servant, isn’t it?
Don’t believe the media, they will fool you into thinking Hillary is going to win by default, the die hard Trump fans are dug-in with their heels and will arrive at the polls a week early and stand in the rain to cast their ballot.
As for T2 True-Dope, he should be shopping for some Kevlar lined yoga pants for those high level negotiations after the election.

#66 Trump Loves Hillary on 10.14.16 at 9:49 pm

What the election comes down to is choosing between a womanizer or a murderer,criminal and con artist.
You choose your evil.

In terms of polls, be very weary. The least bias currently has Clinton ahead by 0.5%. It has a long track record of proving to be within 2%.

#67 TCContrarian on 10.14.16 at 9:49 pm

From a few days ago:
______________________________________________

#10 TCContrarian on 10.11.16 at 6:48 pm

In agreement with just about everything here…except, that a 10% drop (in the US market), is to be viewed as a ‘buying opportunity’.

Question- a reasonable one (and hopefully it will be answered this time):

Is it ever a time to ‘sell’ the US market (in anticipation of a drop considerably larger than 10%)?
If we apply the same criteria as in RE valuations (‘sell now’ because the fundamentals don’t support these prices), isn’t the same true for stocks with P/E ratios >30?

Furthermore, we’ve had a 7-year bull-market- one of the longest in history – and we are still to expect a continuation?
I don’t get the logic. Will anyone enlighten me?
—————————————————————-

Fair question. Is it ever a time to sell stocks and be in cash (since risk/reward is unfavourable)?

Another question: how did the 60/40 stocks/bonds, balanced portfolio work out during the 2008-9 crash?
Would it have been better to be in cash or cash-equivalents?

#68 Self Directed on 10.14.16 at 9:54 pm

#50 Ronaldo on 10.14.16 at 8:35 pm

Yes, polls. I recall very well the Alberta election of 2012 when the polls stated that the Wildrose Party would sweep into power with 62 of 87 seats. The actual results were PC 61 and Wildrose 17. I don’t pay much attention to polls. We may be in for quite a surprise on November 8th. As for the markets, I don’t think it will make much difference who gets into power once the dust settles. Am thinking that the markets are near correction territory anyway and so on August 30th I went to 75% fixed and 25% equity. My balanced portfolio was up 9% to end of August so figured why take a chance on maybe getting another 5 or 6% when it could just as easily drop 10 or more. Nothing wrong with taking some off the table now and sitting back and watching the fiasco play out.
————————
I’ve been thinking the same thing lately. Been following the balanced/diversified thing and it dawned on me… this fixed income is great! Already got some dividend payouts. Why should I buy the Equity portions in a peaked market? Why not wait for a correction?

If you don’t mind me asking, Ronaldo, what is your 75% Fixed Assets? Obviously Bonds, Preferreds, and REIT’s? What does your weighting look like?

So far, I have something like this:
WEIGHTING – MER – TRAILING YLD – TICKER – DESCRIPTION
——————————————————————
10% 0.11 2.28% VSB Vanguard CDN Short-Term Bond IDX ETF
10% 0.46 3.15% XCB iShares Canadian Corporate Bond IDX ETF
20% 0.50 5.49% ZPR BMO Laddered Pref Share IDX ETF
10% 0.61 5.39% ZRE BMO Equal Weight REITS IDX ETF
——————————————————————
Still need…
10% 0.06 2.35% VCN Vanguard FTSE Canada All CAP IDX ETF
20% 0.16 1.42% VUN Vanguard US Total Market IDX ETF
20% 0.22 2.63% XEF iShares Core MSCI EAFE IMI INDEX ETF

—or, for one less, I could do this—

40% 0.27 1.86% VXC VANGUARD FTSE Global All Cap ex Canada
10% 0.06 2.35% VCN Vanguard FTSE Canada All CAP IDX ETFIndex ETF

Once the correction happens, sell off some of the fixed and buy the cheap assets.

Did you buy during the last correction (Brexit in June) or the one before that (commodity crash in February)? — Garth

#69 Context on 10.14.16 at 9:54 pm

Hillary only needs 270 electoral votes to claim the Presidency so Trump is wasting his time and money, or in a race horse is a long shot with a broken leg. Hillary is employed by the political machine hiding behind the curtain to do their bidding.

#70 The Goddard Report on 10.14.16 at 10:01 pm

Michael Rivero on the aftermath of the 2nd debate.

http://www.howestreet.com/2016/10/14/dark-secrets-hillary-vs-donald/

#71 nonplused on 10.14.16 at 10:03 pm

Wait…. isn’t today Friday?

#72 Smoking Man on 10.14.16 at 10:07 pm

DELETED

#73 Tony on 10.14.16 at 10:10 pm

Re: #53 Tony on 10.14.16 at 8:48 pm

This is an imposter posting as me.

But he’s better. — Garth

#74 Smudgekin on 10.14.16 at 10:13 pm

If Trump wins there will be a Watergate-type paralysis in Washington. And like Nixon he’s the wrong type of personality to be president.

#75 Smoking Man on 10.14.16 at 10:26 pm

Smokey begging for a spot on the trading floor.

Really Bitches, from the Planet Nectonite

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SbUC-UaAxE

November Smokey goes full book

#76 Terry on 10.14.16 at 10:27 pm

Sorry Doug, Garth & Ryan………………….you just don’t get it. You’re not American and you have probably never lived in the US for any length of time. All the polls cannot be relied upon and Canadians are extremely uninformed about the 2 candidates as well………….Trump is going to win this one by popular vote and at least 300+ Electoral College votes. President Trump will be a reality.

#77 Smoking Man on 10.14.16 at 10:35 pm

No words

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnFZsrs32Co&list=PLtMHHnSCggf_LeHen6DKCFD_7aOnvstMx

#78 Self Directed on 10.14.16 at 10:46 pm

Did you buy during the last correction (Brexit in June) or the one before that (commodity crash in February)? — Garth

Never mind, Ronaldo. I just got slapped… for trying to have a healthy discussion about investing. Hey everyone… let’s talk more about Trump! Or read SM’s scattered thoughts.
-Signed out.. early

The point was simple. People who try to time the markets never do it. — Garth

#79 Jack on 10.14.16 at 10:50 pm

DELETED

#80 Marcus on 10.14.16 at 10:57 pm

Hillary wants to impose a no-fly zone over Syria and if she has to shoot down Russian planes with stand off missile weapons systems. Russia was invited by the democratically elected President of Syria and is the only legal entity there. Russia is thrashing ISIS and Al-Nusra forces. America has told Putin to leave ore face the consequences. Obama’s meeting today over Syria produced the strategy that the CIA will start cyber attacks against Russia. Putin just dispatched a complete carrier battle group out of his North Sea fleet bound for Syria and Yemen. 1 Aircraft Carrier, Two battleships, two destroyers, Two intelligence ships, several tender ships and several attack submarines. Norwegian authorities are alarmed at the sheer size of the fleet. Russia has also placed and activated their S-300 and S-400 anti aircraft and anti missile systems all over Syria. They have stated that anything entering Syrian airspace and/or attacking Syrian forces will be shot down immediately. Hillary will absolutely make this into a hot war. Trump, probably not so much.

#81 Marcus on 10.14.16 at 10:59 pm

Neither Doug nor I ‘favour’ either candidate. We have no vote or influence. Just perspective, which you seem to have lost. — Garth

Now that is a bunch of hooey.

#82 Willdaman on 10.14.16 at 11:26 pm

A professional portfolio manager needs to understand and assess every risk that might affect clients’ assets. Ignorant comment. You are capable of better. — Garth
———————–
You preach blind faith in a balanced portfolio, avoiding market timing etc., so why does any of this matter?

Portfolios do not design, build, maintain or rebalance themselves. BTW have all the reasonable people left this blog? Hello? — Garth

#83 Ex-Cowtown on 10.14.16 at 11:40 pm

#42 ww1 on 10.14.16 at 8:04 pm

The Republicans in the US Congress have spent tens of millions of taxpayer dollars investigating her and trying to find something to pin on her.

Nothing.

Under the circumstances, if she is in fact a thief and criminal, it would be hard not to argue she is the smartest thief and criminal in history.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

That’s not much of a ringing endorsement. They are both despicable, but in Trump’s case I’m fairly certain that the DOJ, IRS, FBI, SEC and everyone else would have been all over him if he did any really shady stuff. Trump has no political protection.

Hillary has had Obama sheltering her for the past 8 years, had the FBI grant immunity to everyone involved in the email scandal in exchange for testimony against….nobody, and on and on it goes. She even had the FBI destroy laptops, cellphones and other physical evidence, which was unprecedented. In business if I destroyed all my records after being subpoenaed I’d be guilty of obstruction at very least.

What amazes me and everyone else is how Hillary can claim the benefits of Alzheimer’s when it comes to testifying under oath, yet claim in the same breath that only she is sharp enough to defend America.

If Trump is a Groucho Marx, then Hillary is Nixon and Al Capone rolled into one.

#84 Hotdogs from Heaven on 10.14.16 at 11:51 pm

#40 Sheane Wallace on 10.14.16 at 7:56 pm
So Doug,

Now you are expert in politics?

You credentials please?

A professional portfolio manager needs to understand and assess every risk that might affect clients’ assets. Ignorant comment. You are capable of better. — Garth

—————————————————

Don’t you read the comments here every day?

We are ALL experts on politics!

#85 ww1 on 10.14.16 at 11:51 pm

BTW have all the reasonable people left this blog? Hello? — Garth

To me it feels a lot like the days running up to the most recent Canadian election when the blogdogs when on and on here about how much Steven Harper would win by and how T2 would be toast.

Added to that Conservative wishful thinking is the expats living in Red states who ignore the EC math and assume red neck zealots with lawn signs translate into enough votes for an election victory.

The only way Trumph wins if is the Dems are so convinced Hillary is going to win by a comfortable margin that they stay home so they can pretend the did not vote for Hillary. Brexit all over again.

#86 april on 10.15.16 at 12:06 am

#71 – Your comment made made me laugh. I had the same thought.

#87 fake estate on 10.15.16 at 12:09 am

A friend who is real estate agent in gta, who owns 7 properties.
in the last 2 weeks, he sold all of it and even the home he lives in, i asked him y? he said wait and see

#88 stage1dave on 10.15.16 at 12:22 am

Wow, a few ghosts from the back pages tonite…

You had to bring up those damned Cubs, didn’t you? I always thought one of the greatest tragedies of my childhood was NEVER getting to see Banks & Jenkins play in a World Series together…oh well. Had to content myself with wondering if Vida Blue was gonna show up next season…

And Roy Cohn? JHC, you’d think ANY association with that dude would be the kiss of death, but people have pretty short memories.

On a positive note, got thru my set list tonite without breaking any strings, and am reasonably confident the graded OPC market, and restored classic car and vintage tour t shirt values won’t be affected by the election of either of these candidates.

#89 Ignorance Is Bliss on 10.15.16 at 12:32 am

Wow, as a woman, I didn’t realize Hillary was so hated by men. (It looks like all or almost all of the above anti-Hillary comments are blog dogs with a Y chromosome, judging by the names used.) As a woman, I can only imagine that support for Trump has fallen off a cliff in the past few days (much like the YVR housing market), at least from one half of the population…how this will translate into a Trump win I can’t fathom….

#90 traderJim on 10.15.16 at 12:47 am

Some people seem unhappy at all the political talk. I have not paid attention to politics in 30 years. This election is looking like a sea change in American politics. It’s about a 1000 times more important than whether you should be 25% fixed income or 32%.

The result will almost certainly be that Hillary wins, and that the Republican party is pretty much dismantled, and a new nationalist/populist 3rd party tries to make a go of it next time around.

Can’t see any way any of this ends happily. There’s a worldwide movement against the establishment, against free trade, against open borders.

No end of the world or even war scenario imho, but still going to be uuuugly.

Can’t recall ever seeing more sabre rattling going on.

Personally, can’t stand conspiracy theories and the people who spout them, but damn if this is not all looking mighty suspicious.

Anyone not following the WikiLeaks saga is missing out on the real life House of Cards. No need to pay for Netflix!

#91 Not 1st on 10.15.16 at 12:58 am

Garth you always ride us about giving in to fear. Well let’s turn that around. You shouldn’t fear the Donald either. World will keep turning. Markets will shrug it off. And maybe just maybe we might get a few much needed improvements in policy.

#92 Lady Trump on 10.15.16 at 1:12 am

God bless Donald Trump.

#93 Willdaman on 10.15.16 at 1:18 am

Portfolios do not design, build, maintain or rebalance themselves. BTW have all the reasonable people left this blog? Hello? — Garth
————
Where does design/build comes into play for your client who already has money invested with you. I assume at the outset you would have designed a proper asset allocation which shifts as the client gets older into more fixed stuff. Are you saying that you might redesign a portfolio mix based on potential market swaying events as well?

Rebalancing/maintaining shouldn’t require you to keep examining market risks should it? It’s more a mechanical exercise that has already been taken care of by algorithms.

Again, you’re the one that says ignore fluctuations and black swan events and stick with the balanced portfolio. For you to say that advisors need to be aware of every risk out there seems to run a bit counter to that as it implies an advisor might try to get ahead of some “risk” event, which to me seems like market timing.

I think my question is perfectly reasonable, there are potentially contradictory points you guys are putting out there so just asking for some clarity.

#94 Nemesis on 10.15.16 at 1:21 am

“You guys, Bay street and Wall street have no clue what’s happening here. My Herdomiter. App that has three twitter windows have 12 of them up, 36 views into the mind of the herd with different balanced followers, every new tweet get’s ADO’d into SQL server , every night a stored proc spits out a report, that I bet on the next day. 98% accurate.” – SM

#Alternatively,YouCouldSubscribeTo…

https://www.recordedfuture.com/web-intelligence-engine/

#95 TheSpangler on 10.15.16 at 1:25 am

Any of you guys see Red Bull Rampage today? That Semenuk kid just kills it. Poor Aggy his run was nuts but went down hard on that 3.

The US election is a toss up, it could go either way. HRC is definitely the MSM favourite, which I actually think is working against her.

Trump is like that Uncle you smoked pot with, everyone says he’s bad but you really like him in private.

Either way it’s pretty pathetic these are the 2 people the US has to put forth as their next president.

#96 Karma on 10.15.16 at 1:42 am

#10 Self Directed on 10.14.16 at 6:39 pm
“What happened to ZPR this week?!!

https://www.google.ca/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1476484685455&chddm=8211&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=TSE:ZPR&ntsp=1&ei=LF4BWNDWEoWIigLiv4jwBQ

I love it, but wondering… why?”

#14 broader mind on 10.14.16 at 6:48 pm
Who cares about US politics. I want to know why Canadian prefered’s had a little bump today ? Any thoughts.”

Perhaps this:
http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-10-year-bond-yield

#97 Shrivelled sack of dangling doom on 10.15.16 at 1:48 am

I’m not generally a ‘market timer’ , except for periods of greater than average volatility and in the three weeks before a strongly contested US election, or during nuclear testing by N Korea, terror attacks, fed tea leaf prognostications , meteor spotting and the like. In the other few days of the year when the birds are flying straight and I’m not shitting myself in fear its business as usual.

#98 Fed-up on 10.15.16 at 1:51 am

Ummm what the hell is this now?

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/14/yellen-fed-might-want-to-run-a-high-pressure-economy.html

The only reason we should all hope for a Trump victory is that he has rightfully billed Ol’ Yeller as a moron and promised take her out to the woodshed if he becomes president.

Anyone who has any faith in this individual should have their own sanity and judgement evaluated.

Perhaps eliminating the the Fed all together may be the next logical step. Just useless.

#99 BS on 10.15.16 at 2:06 am

I think the most interesting part about this election is what are the Republicans going to do after the election?

They have stood in Obama’s way on just everything he has tried to do. How can they do the same with Hillary after they basically endorse her prior to the election? On the other hand how can they go along with the most hated Democrat ever with a completely different philosophy?

If Trump wins after they snub him Trump will not play game and will get his revenge on the Republicans. He could care less about the Republican party.

Then factor in the hatred the Trump Republican base will have for the party if Trump does lose after they drop their support for him. Trump supporters still make up most of the party.

It is a lose lose lose situation for the Republicans at this point. Could be the end of the party as we know it. Maybe a third right wing party comes in and makes the Republicans a fringe party. Either that or they toss the name and rebrand.

#100 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:24 am

#62 BS on 10.14.16 at 9:12 pm
“With Or Without Tic Tacs, Women Really, Really Don’t Like ‘The Donald’

You only put out half the story. The same analysis shows Trump would in a larger landslide if only men voted.

I guess you can say then Men Really, Really, Really Don’t Like Hillary.

http://www.businessinsider.com/this-is-what-the-election-map-would-look-like-if-just-men-voted-on-election-day-2016-10

Check out the other map. It shows women really, really, really, really, really, really don’t like Trump.

Electoral college if only men vote:
Trump 350 v 188 Clinton

Electoral college if only women vote:
Clinton 458 v 80 Trump.

A difference of 108 electoral college votes in favour of Clinton under women only voting. Another way of looking is Clinton would take 30.8% more electoral college votes.

#101 Looney Baloney on 10.15.16 at 2:37 am

Fascinating to watch the establishment media in complete denial. They truly have lost any and all credibility. I guess they sense their time is nigh.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFQcZMGe4p0

All hail emperor Trump, the Ceasar of our times!

#102 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:41 am

#79 Marcus on 10.14.16 at 10:57 pm
“Hillary wants to impose a no-fly zone over Syria and if she has to shoot down Russian planes with stand off missile weapons systems. Russia was invited by the democratically elected President of Syria and is the only legal entity there. Russia is thrashing ISIS and Al-Nusra forces. America has told Putin to leave ore face the consequences. Obama’s meeting today over Syria produced the strategy that the CIA will start cyber attacks against Russia. Putin just dispatched a complete carrier battle group out of his North Sea fleet bound for Syria and Yemen. 1 Aircraft Carrier, Two battleships, two destroyers, Two intelligence ships, several tender ships and several attack submarines. Norwegian authorities are alarmed at the sheer size of the fleet. Russia has also placed and activated their S-300 and S-400 anti aircraft and anti missile systems all over Syria. They have stated that anything entering Syrian airspace and/or attacking Syrian forces will be shot down immediately. Hillary will absolutely make this into a hot war. Trump, probably not so much.”

So you think Russia’s interest is more important than the US/EU’s? I find it amazing how many people in the West, due to the enshrined rights of freedom of speech protected by Western constitutions, seem to categorically cheer on the other guys and frame any action by the US as evil.

Perhaps Russia was invited by a “democratically elected” government that is murdering its citizens and has displaced millions of their citizens. That doesn’t make Russia’s involvement in propping up this particular regime morally superior to the West.

I guess to you Russia’s bombing of various places in Syria is morally superior than a potential attempt to establish a no-fly zone, which would save lives. Each to their own, I guess…

#103 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:43 am

“Portfolios do not design, build, maintain or rebalance themselves. BTW have all the reasonable people left this blog? Hello? — Garth”

Still here Garth. Trying to fight the maniacal idiots you seem to attract. But it’s a waste of time because people don’t like to change their mind, but rather prefer to do mental gymnastics to justify their positions, regardless of the facts.

#104 Copious Crank on 10.15.16 at 2:45 am

Forecasts are like opinions, everybodies got one. I believe too many Canadians are drinking the media bathwater and simply regurgitate what the hear from their liberal media source of choice. There have been many other US elections as bizarre and contentious as this one but never an election held inside a media created firestorm. The fact that media receives money to print everything they broadcast must be kept in mind. There is no ‘independent media, ergo no source of neutral information that can be held up as “true’. The recent documents released by Wikileaks gleaned from the personal devices of all concerned are an absolute proof of that.

My question is more mundane. If increased rates are good for commodities, banks and preferred shares, will the act of an American Fed move have positive effect on Canadian issues as mentioned even if the needle doesn’t budge on this side of the line. Will perception move issues like XFN, CPD, XEG ?

#105 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:52 am

Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight.com’s track record.

2008:
“In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, 2008, Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6.1 percentage points for Barack Obama and electoral vote totals of 349 (based on a probabilistic projection) or 353 (based on fixed projections of each state).[538 11] Obama won with 365 electoral college votes. Silver’s predictions matched the actual results everywhere except in Indiana and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska, which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. His projected national popular vote differential was below the actual figure of 7.2 points.

The forecasts for the Senate proved to be correct for every race. But the near stalemate in Minnesota led to a recount that was settled only on June 30, 2009. In Alaska, after a protracted counting of ballots, on November 19 Republican incumbent Ted Stevens conceded the seat to Democrat Mark Begich, an outcome that Silver had forecast on election day.[22] And in Georgia, a run-off election on December 2 led to the re-election of Republican Saxby Chambliss, a result that was also consistent with Silver’s original projection.”

2010 governors:
“Just before election day (October 31), the FiveThirtyEight projection was that there would be 30 Republican governors in office (counting states where there was no gubernatorial election in 2010), 19 Democratic governors, and 1 (actually 0.8) Other (Lincoln Chafee, who was leading in the polls running as an Independent in Rhode Island).

Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of 36. Only in Illinois, in which the Democratic candidate Pat Quinn defeated the Republican Bill Brady 46.6% to 46.1%, was the FiveThirtyEight prediction wrong.”

2012:
“On election day, November 6, Silver posted his final forecast for each state. On the morning of the November 6, 2012 presidential election, Silver’s model gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the electoral votes.[538 79] At the end of that day, after the ballots had been counted, the 538 model had correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[52][e] Silver, along with at least two academic-based analysts who aggregated polls from multiple pollsters, thus got not only all 50 state predictions right, but also all 9 of the “swing states”.[53] In contrast, individual pollsters were less successful. For example, Rasmussen Reports “missed on six of its nine swing-state polls”.[54]

An independent analysis of Silver’s state-by-state projections, assessing whether the percentages of votes that the candidates actually received fell within the “margin of error” of Silver’s forecasts, found that “Forty-eight out of 50 states actually fell within his margin of error, giving him a success rate of 96 percent. And assuming that his projected margin of error figures represent 95 percent confidence intervals, which it is likely they did, Silver performed just about exactly as well as he would expect to over 50 trials. Wizard, indeed”.[55][56] Additional tests of the accuracy of the electoral vote predictions were published by other researchers.”

“The FiveThirtyEight model correctly forecasted the outcome of 31 of the 33 U.S. Senate races.”

BET ACCORDINGLY!

#106 Pookie on 10.15.16 at 3:07 am

This comments page reads more and more like Zero Hedge or even Prison Planet nutjobbery. Uneducated angry and scared white males don’t have the electoral power to make Trump win anything but a horrible GOP field nomination race. Consider that more than 50% of the US populations kindergarteners this year were NOT WHITE. Trump is clearly on the wrong side of the present and future.

#107 paul summerville on 10.15.16 at 3:30 am

You may want to consider that given Clinton’s shift leftward that the markets will retreat to see how much of Sander’s rhetoric finds its way into policy. Still the point of ‘staying invested’ with a balanced portfolio is an important point.

#108 #37 Smoking Man - ADO’d into SQL server...in which Century? on 10.15.16 at 3:31 am

…ADO’d into SQL server…

ROTFL.

To bring you into the 21st Century Smoking Man, Google these terms for starters (hint: Big Data):

Hadoop, MapReduce

Or for a quickie, view this (note the year published):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s-vSeWej1U

Then, there is this really new way to store lot’s and lot’s of data without spending a fortune on storage (by Microsoft with video so you do not think it is some left wing conspiracy, hint: “The Cloud” – again, not the year published):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOxA1l1pQIw

More pretty pictures of the Cloud:

https://www.google.com/about/datacenters/gallery/index.html#/

Used to teach this stuff at University Smoking Man along with how to make cash using these technologies, business applications, with ROIs, direct/indirect benefits…in essence, how to use it to CRUSH or OUT PRODUCE your competition.

Academics are so dumb huh?

Not everyone is book fed Smoking Man.

bsant

#109 Good Post Doug on 10.15.16 at 3:52 am

Note, I got your name correct…that’s 2 in a row.

Good post, shows sensitivity analysis, including indirect, which would be expected from a good portfolio manager.

Either one of them plan to spend like there is no tomorrow, if their Congress will let them, yet some analysts are saying this will increase bond rates.

Makes no sense.

In the past, bond rates move with the CPI (going back to the 50s) and the Fed selling bonds decreases the money supply and increases rates. Then again, buying bonds supposedly decreases rates.

Maybe a future post on this?

For the few of us that still hold low risk securities.

bsant

#110 DIY Meow on 10.15.16 at 4:39 am

#68 Self Directed on 10.14.16 at 9:54 pm

I too am interested in having a healthy discussion about investing. Your choice of ETFs look familar as I’ve investigated them also. On the fixed income my husband has XCB and CPD but I have ZAG and CBO..trying to keep them at 20% each within our own portfolios. We just started ETFs this year, so well see which one does better. My strategy is to set up the limits and keep the order open “GTC”. There will always be dips so I have my orders set at different limits. I’m always happy when they get triggered knowing that I’ve bought them slightly cheaper.

When big world events occur, I observed from my long time financial advisor to wait things out a bit and before investing (but obviously I’m doing ETFs on my own).

#111 Tyson Furious on 10.15.16 at 5:43 am

What media present to the rabble is that women are hyper intelligent, feminist, same sex (or any combo therein) entities who are fed up with male oppression.

Dougie’s chart supposedly shows this. What Dougie’s chart doesn’t show was who was polled and what were the questions asked.

I have found REAL Americans to be a fine class of people. Though they may not shine in matters of geo-politics and the like they do retain a form of common sense.

My point is that there is a silent majority of REAL women scattered throughout the saner states (middle) who, ‘gasp’ are not turned into screaming banshees about stories of male-female interactions.
These have been going on for about 10,000 years and in normal times if the male has overstepped his amorous bounds, a crisp slap on the face ends the issue. It’s just how it was.

Michelle’s “hurt to the core” crocodile tears the other day should be superimposed with her admonition to Hillary in 2008 ” if you can’t run your own household. how can you run the country?” Was she referring to dirty dishes?

Politicians know the mob has no memory and runs on emotions.

So my point is that I believe that a surprising amount of level headed women, having discussed the issues with their husbands will pull the lever for Donny.

No one is pretending that the choices are ideal.

Ps: to poster 42, ‘no negative information about Hillary anywhere?’ Check out this very recent tool on the internet called Google. Punch in your heroine’s name and for shits and giggles add “crime”. Days of pleasant reading in just the first few pages….

Cheers-

#112 Rock Beats Paper on 10.15.16 at 7:55 am

Garth,
We should have an update regarding the US debt and GDP, considering how it was juxtaposed to Canada with its anemic growth, poor debt situation.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has the deficit jumping to $590B and the debt rising by a whopping $1.4Trillion. The difference is the accounting gimmickry by the govt. They do not include such expenditures as student debt (that an investment!).

You may recall that you were pointing out the US declining deficit last year. Turns out, the debt ceiling debate had the government push figures into the current year.

The trend is getting worse, with 2013 real GDP coming in at 2.7, 2014 at 2.5, then 1.9 and now tracking this year at 1.3%. That is stall speed on its way to recession after the 4th longest recovery in history.

This following 6 quarters of negative earnings growth. They will add fuel to the fire with Fiscal policy crowding out private sector growth.

The FED may raise the over night rate a quarter in December, but the business cycle is long in the tooth, and their will be pressure to ease by this time next year.

#113 Smoking Man on 10.15.16 at 8:17 am

The Donald’s speech that will win it for him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFQcZMGe4p0

#114 Sam Malone on 10.15.16 at 8:22 am

With all due respect, didn’t this blog predict that Brexit would fail?

It reflected the consensus view that Britons would not be so dumb as to leave a free trade zone, trashing their currency and causing a Marmite shortage. They were. — Garth

#115 Polls on 10.15.16 at 8:43 am

DELETED

#116 Greater Fool Sports Team Update! on 10.15.16 at 8:44 am

Breaking Sports News!!!

MLB – ALCS Game 1 Results:

Cleveland Victims of Racist White Genocidal Oppression

2

Toronto Blue Jays

0

Game 2 begins at 4:08 pm today.

#117 greg ellis on 10.15.16 at 8:48 am

Yes, Hilary will win. Perhaps the Republicans will never win again. Open borders and sanctuary cities appeal to those who want friends and relatives to come in, not to mention refugees from all over (that is really working well in Germany). Women will vote for Hilary as most seem to favor no limits on any kind of abortion, no matter how far along the pregnancy. And Hilary is a woman who stands for women’s rights (forget about her co-existing with Bill after all of his affairs, impeachment etc.). African Americans will vote for Hilary. Why? Who knows? Obambi has done nothing for them and Hilary is Obambi continued. She will make sure the next Supreme Court justices are far left and will ignore the very principles the USA was founded upon. She is corrupt and greedy for wealth and power. She has accomplished nothing of note in her thirty years in public service, except increasing her personal fortune. And the media will continue to ignore anything negative about her (she really should be in jail) and focus on Trump. The ever expanding Democrat base, focusing on hand outs and free stuff while racking up incredible government debt (free college-why not?), will insure that any party demanding common sense and accountability, will never have a chance.

#118 D.D. Corkum on 10.15.16 at 9:00 am

“Brexit demonstrated just how unreliable polls can be.”

Not one single poll said Brexit was 0% likely. They all provided probabilistic assessments based on the data available, subject to normal statistical caveats like random sampling error.

When a poll says “19 times out of 20”, they really do mean that 1 time out of 20 the data will fall outside the so-called margin of error. That is not poor reliability; its good understanding of statistics and its limitations.

#119 consensus view on 10.15.16 at 9:08 am

It reflected the consensus view that Britons would not be so dumb as to leave a free trade zone, trashing their currency and causing a Marmite shortage. They were. — Garth

The “consensus view” is manufactured, of course.

Part of manufacturing the consensus view was to keep the latest free trade zone agreement (TTP) in secret from the public, until signed.

Wikileaks had to make it public, along other trade deals.

https://wikileaks.org/+-Global-Economy-+.html

You may say that this is just how it is – but the public lost trust in the political system that can destroy middle-class, manufacturing sector, etc. on ideological basis, without consensus.

The public does not want to hand over blank cheques to politicians any more.

You are upset that the real estate boards keep their data secret from the broad public, but you are perfectly fine with trade agreements signed without public disclosure, full debate and possibly a referendum.

#120 MF on 10.15.16 at 9:22 am

#105 Pookie on 10.15.16 at 3:07 am

Wrong. This is what a lot of folks are not getting. Usually older folks i find. Trump supporters are not “uneducated white males”. There is a political backlash developing against the left.

Anecdotally speaking,

I live in the GTA and two of my best friends, one Filipino the other Korean, are Trump supporters. It has a lot to do with a shift away from nauseating PC culture. My best friend (Polish girl) and my girl friend (from the Philippines) are the same. It has more to do with a shift in political momentum and direction in the west.

By the way, we are all university educated and in our 30’s. All are working and doing well too.

Dig a little deeper than what the biased CBC reports and you will see.

MF

#121 CJBob on 10.15.16 at 9:32 am

Portfolios do not design, build, maintain or rebalance themselves. BTW have all the reasonable people left this blog? Hello? — Garth
_______________
You have the power to make people register to comment or to moderate out the crap. You choose not to. You reap what you so.

Sow. — Garth

#122 Deano on 10.15.16 at 9:49 am

Seems lots of posters here (and some media/bank forcasters) are quite positive a big correction is certain to come soon, I for sure don’t know. But what I do think is, all these market timers will be sitting at the computer with their fingers on the BUY button too afraid to go through with it when and “if” it happens. The “Wall of Worry” will keep them at bay: upcoming further crash, recession, depression, Trump… and so on. That’s no how to live and invest in my opinion. Stick with quality companies and ETF’s. Stick to your plan, get a good advisor if you need to. Go outside, enjoy life, and let the investing prophets wallow in their misery and losing strategies…

#123 Cloud on 10.15.16 at 9:50 am

#107 #37 Smoking Man – ADO’d into SQL server…in which Century? on 10.15.16 at 3:31 am

…ADO’d into SQL server…

ROTFL.

===

Yes, of course, there are different brushes… but let the painter decide what works for him/her.

Let your mind not be clouded… it’s just an other tool.

#124 For those about to flop... on 10.15.16 at 10:15 am

Carney’s take on Brexit…

M42BC

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/553772/food-prices-rise-job-losses-brexit-mark-carney-bank-of-england

#125 Doghouse Dweller on 10.15.16 at 10:19 am

Since Britons voted June 23 to exit the EU, the pound has dropped more than 18 percent against the dollar and almost as much against the euro.
heaven forbid, Unilever upped the price of Marmite.

We on the other hand in free trade nirvana have lost 30 + % against the dollar and they have raised the price of everything, including utilities, fees and taxes.

#126 For those about to flop... on 10.15.16 at 10:28 am

Regarding the polls on Brexit,most of the ones I looked at had it pretty close to 50/50.
From memory The Daily Telegraph got it right on the number 52/48, I remember thinking I hope they’re wrong.
Within reason the polls got it right in Brexit,the stay side put too much faith in the bookies numbers.
They’re the guys that were running numbers like 70/30
Big discrepancy.

The bookies ,not the polls got it wrong…

M42BC

#127 MF on 10.15.16 at 10:31 am

“It reflected the consensus view that Britons would not be so dumb as to leave a free trade zone, trashing their currency and causing a Marmite shortage. They were. — Garth”

-Hey i thought a low currency is good for exports? Plus Carney was able to lower rates and make himself look useful.

MF

#128 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.15.16 at 10:32 am

@#99 KARMA-

All that proves is that women are more sexist than men.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.15.16 at 10:36 am

@#65 Sunburned Cheesehead
Hillary’s America”, Obama’s America, blah blah blah.

All produced by that paragon of neo conservative objectivity

Dinesh D’Souza.

A man who was jailed in 2014 for campaign finance FRAUD. Specifically donating $20,000 to a conservative candidate and when caught, lied about it.
A man who, while President of Kings College in 2012, preached conservative values and the sanctity of heterosexual marriage, was caught in an affair with another married woman.
Nice. ” Do what I say, not what I do”
A man who rejects feminism, homosexuality, social welfare, and on and on and on.
Basically, ‘Lets turn the clock back to the 1950’s”

Dinesh D’Souza.
Getting rich espousing neo conservative, religious pseudo bullshit to the gullible masses.
All while he was fooling around on his 2nd wife.

#130 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.15.16 at 10:37 am

@All- Re: Polls-

ELL OH ELL! I have had the (mis)fortune to be called several times by various pollsters during elections. Every single time I have, uh, not accurately stated my views (lied). Why? Because my opinion is private and it will be expressed in the voting booth.

#131 The American on 10.15.16 at 10:44 am

At #75: Terry, your comment is absolutely accurate if you replace the name Trump for Hillary. Are you f*cking serious? Dude, whatever you’re smoking, please send some over this way.

At #101: Karma, well put. Those are the same whiners who *think* they’re being provocative and “smart,” when in fact they understand very little about the ways of the world.

Now, for those who continue the worthless path of wishful thinking that Trump will be President of the U.S., please refrain from any further comment. You’re a delusional and misguided being who should remain more focused on seeking and receiving some *real* help, as opposed to blogging in your free time. You must be living under a rock or lack the ability to read. The election is done and OVER. Hillary is it. Now let’s move on.

#132 Estrella on 10.15.16 at 10:45 am

Your prediction relies on the assumption that Democrats actually vote on election day. I have a feeling that Democrats are less passionate about their candidate than the Republican are to their masses. Trump has become the opiate to those masses and I believe that media has a slanted window on this election. No truer has the words on American currency been truer. .”In God we trust”…because you can’t trust anyone else. The founding fathers are turning in their graves and railing at the travasty that has become of their nation. Let us hope the lesser evil prevails, but even with that conclusion, it will still be a hard pill to swallow over the next 4 years. Hard to believe that a country that offered so many great people to the world stage has only these two clowns to offer as candidates to the highest office.

#133 MF on 10.15.16 at 10:50 am

One thing that this election and ours last year is showing us is just how biased the media outlets are.

Anyone else noticed how frantic these outlets have been lately trying to discredit and demonize Trump? Pathetic. Journalism has definitely reached a new low.

I guess as more and more people rightfully turn to social media, the result of which is the slow death of the main stream media. They have literally resorted to full on propaganda and are shameless about it.

The irony is the effect is pushing everyone even further away.

MF

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.15.16 at 10:57 am

@#118MF
“we are all university educated and in our 30’s. All are working and doing well too. ”
******************************************

Please tell me that your Major wasnt in English Lit…….

#135 Arfmooocat on 10.15.16 at 11:02 am

I don’t know… but I do know the endless trash Trump is getting so coerced and old.

I think a lot of Americans feel the same when you read comment to the trash Trump articles.

I can turn on CNN, MSN or whatever and it’s trash Trump night and day.

Never even hear anything about Hilary.

#136 AK on 10.15.16 at 11:08 am

“#114 Greater Fool Sports Team Update! on 10.15.16 at 8:44 am
Breaking Sports News!!!
MLB – ALCS Game 1 Results:
Cleveland Victims of Racist White Genocidal Oppression
2
Toronto Blue Jays
0
Game 2 begins at 4:08 pm today.”
—————————————————————–
And the Toronto media had Cleveland bowing out in 4 straight. Useless Homers.

#137 Rainclouds on 10.15.16 at 11:11 am

A scenario that horrifies:

The Donald inexplicably elected. Time to make appointments to Government.

The spectre of him anointing his silver spoon spawn, Uday And Usay with their smug, predatory, slicked back, executive warrior shtick is too much to contemplate……………

#138 Context on 10.15.16 at 11:12 am

The FED will raise the rate for two reasons. Retail sales across the board have popped as people are buying again and corporate debt leverage needs to be slowed down.

#139 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 10.15.16 at 11:18 am

dogs are great
beer is good
people are crazy

#140 Marcus on 10.15.16 at 11:24 am

Karma:

Read a little more it will do you a world of good. Observing and acknowledging what is going on in Syria is by no means “supporting Russia.” You reveal yourself as one of the typical stooges who are so locked into the right vs left and our side vs their side paradigm. My pointing out that the friction between Obama/Hillary and Putin is extremely dangerous is being realistic w/r/t the massive movements of weapons systems and military movement we’ve seen in the past week. This is much worse than the Cuban missile crisis and people in the West have no F’ing clue. Wake up!!

#141 ChickenLittle on 10.15.16 at 11:28 am

Question: Are you voting for Trump?

Answer: Never in a million years…(don’t want to be seen supporting such a Buffoon.)

….move forward a few weeks and I am in the voting booth.

Now nobody can see me. I vote Trump because I secretly can’t stand Billary.

Question: So who did you vote for?

Answer: Hillary Clinton. She is the lesser of two evils.

I walk away from polling station wondering what will happen next?

A year later Trump is POTUS and life goes on…

I think back to voting day and wonder why so many people said they were voting for Clinton but voted for Trump instead.

It’s embarrassing to vote for Trump but few will admit that they did vote for him that day.

Garth resigns and moves to the countryside where there is no high speed internet connection

#142 rjrt81 on 10.15.16 at 11:30 am

“Bill Clinton cheats on his wife. Impeach him. Trump proudly brags about sexual assault(and has cheated on his wives.). Elect him. Hillary oversaw the department of state while 4 people died in an embassy attack. Put her in jail. Two republicans were in office while over 200 people died in embassy attacks. No problem. Immigrants don’t pay taxes. Round them up and kick them out. Trump doesn’t pay taxes. He’s a business genius. Hillary’s foundation only spent 87% of their donations helping people. She’s a crook. Trumps foundation paid off his debts, bought sculptures of himself, and made political donations to avoid investigations while using less than 5% of funds for charity (and he got shut down by NY state). So savy…. Put him in the White House. Trump made 4 billion dollars in 40 years, when an index fund started at the same time with the same “small loans” he received would be worth $12 billion today… Without a trail of bankruptcies, thousands of lawsuits and burned small business owners. He’s a real business whiz. Hillary took a loss of $700k. She’s a criminal. Trump is the first candidate in the modern era not to release his tax returns, and took a billion dollar loss in 1 year. Genius. Hillary takes responsibility for private email servers and apologizes. Not credible. Trump denies saying things (on the record) he actually said (on the record), he’s just telling it like it is.

Your arguments are thin. Your ignorance of reality is shocking. Your double-standards are offensive, and your willingness to blindly support him and recycle the rhetoric is absurd. Your opinion is not fact. Your memes are not news articles. And your hypocrisy is not a platform.”

-Patrick Farron

#143 rjrt81 on 10.15.16 at 11:35 am

Can you explain this nauseating PC culture you keep referring to?

#144 AB Boxster on 10.15.16 at 11:58 am

#105 Pookie on 10.15.16 at 3:07 am

Trump is clearly on the wrong side of the present and future.

———————————————–
Sure,
All his supporters are uneducated scared ‘white guys’.

Throw in some references to the undesirables and irredeemables, and add a touch of race baiting for flavor.

Regressive ideology is really quite pathetic.

#145 jess on 10.15.16 at 12:18 pm

It would seem that the past is trying to catch up to the present

see cockroach theory
and panama leak is just one law firm?
======

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bahamas-offshore-data-leak-canadian-banks-1.3773041
The findings come from a cache of leaked internal records from the Bahamas corporate registry covering 175,000 companies, trusts and foundations set up in the Caribbean country over the past 25 years.

#146 Andrew t on 10.15.16 at 12:20 pm

All this hysterical vilifying of Clinton is pathetic. I’m starting to like her more and more, just knowing how much she sends these grown men into a tizzy. Keep clutching your pearls and working yourselves up into a lather, your impotent howls of conspiracy and of other assorted horrors grow more ridiculous by the day. Clinton/Kaine 2016. Sorry folks. The adults win again.

#147 Looney Baloney on 10.15.16 at 12:38 pm

#119
We come here because the comments are (largely) unfiltered and provide diverse view points. If we simply wanted our own personal beliefs reinforced without getting our feelings hurt, we’d all be reading HuffPo instead. Thank you Mr.G, for hosting us. A simple customised profanity filter might save you some time.

#118 MF
Right you are, sir. The immigrants largely seem to fall into two camps. Univ educated / civilized, and well, everyone else. The former are largely right leaning, as they know there ain’t no such thing as a free lunch, even if they don’t fully understand the intricacies of the system. Sadly, the latter group is outnumbering them in recent years.

@Tyson Furious
http://i.imgur.com/DvXasUL.png
‘Nuff said.

@Smoking man
Ignore #107. When you already have a working product, the cloud is best used for offsite backups. Don’t waste your time redesigning your code to fit someone else’s API’s, all to achieve the exact same outcome(a printout of data).

@Karma #104
It’s different this time. And poor Nate probably already got the silver or lead talk from the Clinton crime machine if the polls don’t show her winning. Bet accordingly!

#148 BS on 10.15.16 at 1:01 pm

#105 Pookie on 10.15.16 at 3:07 am

This comments page reads more and more like Zero Hedge or even Prison Planet nutjobbery. Uneducated angry and scared white males don’t have the electoral power to make Trump win anything but a horrible GOP field nomination race. Consider that more than 50% of the US populations kindergarteners this year were NOT WHITE. Trump is clearly on the wrong side of the present and future.

Take your comment and switch the words ‘white’ with ‘black’ and ‘Trump’ with ‘Obama’ and ‘GOP’ with ‘Democrat’ and see how it reads.

#149 Doug Rowat on 10.15.16 at 1:24 pm

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.16 at 7:08 pm

The “angry white male” vote is no longer enough to win an election. Trump hasnt figured that out yet.

Good point. The percentage of minority voters this election vs last election will rise by 2 points while white, working-class voters will decline by 3.4 percentage points. This trend won’t be changing in the future.

–Doug

#150 Doug Rowat on 10.15.16 at 1:31 pm

#8 paulo on 10.14.16 at 6:35 pm

I don’t think this guy has a chance but…i think there is a slight possibility.

I indicated there’s a slight possibility. I don’t change asset mix based on slight possibilities.

–Doug

#151 Sheane Wallace on 10.15.16 at 1:38 pm

#40 Sheane Wallace on 10.14.16 at 7:56 pm
So Doug,

Now you are expert in politics?

You credentials please?

A professional portfolio manager needs to understand and assess every risk that might affect clients’ assets. Ignorant comment. You are capable of better. — Garth
——————–

Agree, My apologies, Doug. I was wrong.

A portfolio/fund manager should I hope have thick skin as well.

———————————-

As for Brexit – it won’t happen. Britain has no interest in it. Europe is and will remain the largest market and economy in the world. Where people work to live, not live to work and no one lives in basement ‘apartments’. My home in few months.

BTW I drove by a new glass condo (starting from 360 k+) on Yonge, north of HillCrest mall in south Richmond Hill today. Scary stuff. All glass, enormous, giant pile of crap that will demand maintenance north of 1 k per month in few years, built on uneven ground,it seems is leaning on one side like the tower in Pisa.

#152 Doug Rowat on 10.15.16 at 1:42 pm

#18 Pepito on 10.14.16 at 6:59 pm

Seriously? As a portfolio manager, THAT’s how you build your forecast? Does not inspire confidence.

Would be much more interested in the valuations analysis and macro economic data crunching.

We’re already at 145 comments. Trust me, no one would be more interested in valuation analysis and economic data crunching.

–Doug

#153 Doug Rowat on 10.15.16 at 1:51 pm

#17 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central on 10.14.16 at 6:53 pm

A wildcard, people’s candidate who currently enjoys a national lead over an established ruling class marionette, and either tied or leading in battleground states, according to you, has a 15% chance of success?

You haven’t convinced me Mr. Rowat. And I am a dual citizen.

Well, drop the Access Holywood mic, if you’re a dual citizen then no more evidence needed.

And PredictWise and FiveThirtyEight say his odds are less than 15%, not me. I say his odds are even less than that.

–Doug

#154 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:01 pm

If this is true, Trump’s support is lower than currently polled:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=0

#155 Joseph R. on 10.15.16 at 2:04 pm

#124 Andrew t on 10.15.16 at 12:20 pm

All this hysterical vilifying of Clinton is pathetic.

——————————————

Who would have believed a blog on Canadian housing and dogs would turn into a auto-da-fé of an American Presidential candidate?

#156 anti andrew t on 10.15.16 at 2:08 pm

Ha if Hillary Shillary was a shoo-in, then why all the concerted effort to denounce Trump…and on baseless groping charges from nobodies seeking attention.

Here’s some Fact check denouncing the recent allegations :

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/list-debunked-groper-allegations-corrupt-media-donald-trump/

#157 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:11 pm

#138 Marcus on 10.15.16 at 11:24 am
“Karma:

Read a little more it will do you a world of good. Observing and acknowledging what is going on in Syria is by no means “supporting Russia.” You reveal yourself as one of the typical stooges who are so locked into the right vs left and our side vs their side paradigm. My pointing out that the friction between Obama/Hillary and Putin is extremely dangerous is being realistic w/r/t the massive movements of weapons systems and military movement we’ve seen in the past week. This is much worse than the Cuban missile crisis and people in the West have no F’ing clue. Wake up!!”

Ha! no, I am not on the left-right axis you describe. I’m clearly commenting on how you are framing Russia’s actions as happening and take no issue with it, but are condemning an American response. Yes, it is dangerous that what Russia is doing, as they are the ones pushing the envelope by sending their large carrier group into the Mediterranean. How do you think the Greeks, Italians, French, Spanish, Egyptians, and Israelis feel about this? I assuming Turkey gave it the go-ahead since Erdogan has become friends with Putin again. Who’s going to look after these other countries’ interests to counter Russia’s actions? If not the US, who?

So yes, it’s dangerous. Dangerous because Russia is making an aggressive move. And if the US lets it come to pass, which it likely will, then more slaughtering of innocence people in Syria who are against the Assad regime will go on unpunished. More problems for the European refugee crisis. More strain on countries with large migrant populations (Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey).

#158 The Cloud on 10.15.16 at 2:13 pm

About that ‘Cloud’ data storage thingy….
Wether you are a person, corporation, or a nation.
Once you deposit your info into the cloud you are entitled to a copy of the info, perhaps for a cost….but you have no ownership of the data anymore.
This is a fact that is lost on the sheep everywhere.
Sleep well.

#159 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:17 pm

#146 BS on 10.15.16 at 1:01 pm
“#105 Pookie on 10.15.16 at 3:07 am

This comments page reads more and more like Zero Hedge or even Prison Planet nutjobbery. Uneducated angry and scared white males don’t have the electoral power to make Trump win anything but a horrible GOP field nomination race. Consider that more than 50% of the US populations kindergarteners this year were NOT WHITE. Trump is clearly on the wrong side of the present and future.

Take your comment and switch the words ‘white’ with ‘black’ and ‘Trump’ with ‘Obama’ and ‘GOP’ with ‘Democrat’ and see how it reads.”
—————————-

Huge difference between your proposed switch and reality. Hispanics (50m), Asians (10m), normal white males (60m) and women in general (160m) are against Trump. Trump’s going to get less support than Romney did in 2012.

#160 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.15.16 at 2:20 pm

Trump is going to win this one by popular vote and at least 300+ Electoral College votes. President Trump will be a reality

Whut???

#161 Doug Rowat on 10.15.16 at 2:23 pm

#66 Trump Loves Hillary on 10.14.16 at 9:49 pm

What the election comes down to is choosing between a womanizer or a murderer,criminal and con artist.
You choose your evil.

In terms of polls, be very weary.

A typo I’m sure, but I agree with the typo.

–Doug

#162 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:29 pm

@Karma #104
“It’s different this time. And poor Nate probably already got the silver or lead talk from the Clinton crime machine if the polls don’t show her winning. Bet accordingly!”

Perhaps it’s different this time. Perhaps it’s not as different as you expect though… Polls aren’t just showing “her winning”. They are showing she’s winning in the majority of the battle ground states.

Even Fox News polls has Clinton leading by a wide margin:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Ohio:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html

Florida:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html

Pennsylvania:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

Colorado:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html

Michigan:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html

North Carolina:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html

#163 Keith in Calgary on 10.15.16 at 2:30 pm

Doug……..

I didn’t read the thread, so, forgive me if this has already been posted, but, the only problem with your synopsis, and it is a big one, is that all the references to polls an forecasts you use to substantiate your position are tainted.

The entire MSM and the “state organs” as Lenin so eloquently named them, are openly and unabashedly producing pro-Clinton propaganda 24/7. None of what you read anywhere can be trusted and the US public (for the most part) knows this.

How those who suckle at the trough of entitlement vote, versus those who make their own way in life, will come to fruition in the only poll that matters, and if my numerous US trips over the last 6 months are any indication, on November 9th, the picture you will be seeing will not be the one that the elites want.

#164 Bruce on 10.15.16 at 2:31 pm

Here’s my prediction, as I stated to another friend just the other day: Clinton does pull it off (by a thin margin), but the feeling of victory will be fleeting. They’ll crash the economy, either on purpose or by design. Everything starts going to hell as the geopolitical situation rapidly deteriorates. Russia/Syria/Iran/Afganistan/ISIS/ you name it. Something will ultimately occur where she will either be impeached or forced to resign, or perhaps she’ll have a major health scare or some huge scandal engulfs her presidency. Meanwhile, pending that none of those scenarios materialize, her tenure will be a one spectacular failure after another, in which case she’ll spend the next four years blaming Obama for everything that went wrong.

Enjoy the shitshow, regardless. I think we’re in for some rather “interesting” times…

#165 WUL on 10.15.16 at 2:33 pm

Recommended Rx for your angst about the U.S. election and your finances. One minute and 43 seconds of SFW absolute beauty to cheer you up:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCCQIvbJ6EI&sns=em

#166 Smoking Man on 10.15.16 at 2:34 pm

Driving around Erie PA today. Trump Pence signes everywhere. Zero Hillary sign until I made a wrong turn into the geto. 2 Hillary signs 4 Trump signs.

#167 Polls R Phake on 10.15.16 at 2:41 pm

I was speaking to my wife last night about YouTube videos and online polls. Never have I seen numbers so big in the other direction of the media.

YouTube is an example. First of all you can’t click on up or down twice. On every Trump video there are massive ups. On every Hillary video there are more downs than up. Tens of thousands. I have never seen this phenomena before on YouTube. Where a persons product has 60,000 votes with 27,000 being up and 33,000 being down.

This is why I do not believe anything the media says.

#168 MF on 10.15.16 at 2:45 pm

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.15.16 at 10:57 am

No english lit! All science with a few history classes.

I type my posts on my phone so it’s tough to edit or get it all correct at times.

MF

#169 Debtfree on 10.15.16 at 2:45 pm

Portfolios do not design, build, maintain or rebalance themselves. BTW have all the reasonable people left this blog? Hello? — Garth

I like to think I’m reasonable. I seldom read the comment section anymore because of the constant silliness and cringing as you must correct others assumptions . Like ” now you’re a geopolitical expert ” . So hello right back at ya . I’ll work harder at avoiding the comment section in future .

#170 MF on 10.15.16 at 2:48 pm

#149 Sheane Wallace on 10.15.16 at 1:38 pm

Yup. I live down the street and that thing is monstrosity. Horrendous looking with no soul. I wonder how many idiots are pinning their retirement on their “investment” there?

MF

#171 MF on 10.15.16 at 2:52 pm

#147 Doug Rowat on 10.15.16 at 1:24 pm

You wrongfully assume all Trump’s support comes from white males. Plenty of immigrants who have been there for years and whose children identify only as American.

Think they want globalism, job competition, reduced wages?

Like i posted earlier, lots of support from Trump from non whites and women (here in Canada in the GTA anyway).

The media is losing this battle not winning.

MF

#172 Context on 10.15.16 at 3:04 pm

Do not attempt to criticize Mr. Rowat’s hypothetical presentation which he has sourced. He has outlined all the important items for consideration concerning this sordid election. I have yet to see anywhere another presentation hitting the correct items for discussion and find it all most complete to ascertain a conclusion. He is indeed a key player for prudent portfolio management in my opinion.

#173 For those about to flop... on 10.15.16 at 3:17 pm

Boss,what happens later today?

Robax has another kick at the can and gets paid double time?

InfLewenza is plucked out of the bullpen to come in for relief?

We go back to the old days when it was only 6 days a week?

The Beatles would have made this blog eight days a week…

M42BC

#174 Karma on 10.15.16 at 3:30 pm

Doug/Garth,

It seems that Smoking Man (and his Trump-lickin’ brethren) are to US Politics what Mark is to the CAD:USD exchange rate:
Sure, it’s a possibility that Trump wins, or C$1.00 buys US$1.50 one day, but it destroys their credibility and makes people roll their eyes and skip to the next comment!

#175 Mark M. on 10.15.16 at 3:39 pm

#136 – Context

Atlanta Fed GDP now has just revised down their forecast for third quarter yet again, now just 1.9% from 3.8% five weeks ago.

I don’t care about some outlier consumer spending number, rate of change has those trending lower as well.

You can already see Yellen begin to walk back rate hike talk. There are no rate hikes coming, the next move is rate cuts and stimulus, it’s all these Fed idiots know.

#176 Boomers Rush In on 10.15.16 at 4:02 pm

Many anecdotal reports that the boomers are rushing in to sell their homes at record price in GVRD. Is it too late? Many homes are still getting sold in the burbs despite horrendous traffic on highway to anywhere.

#177 Mr. Frugal on 10.15.16 at 4:24 pm

#77 Self Directed on 10.14.16 at 10:46 pm
Did you buy during the last correction (Brexit in June) or the one before that (commodity crash in February)? — Garth

Never mind, Ronaldo. I just got slapped… for trying to have a healthy discussion about investing. Hey everyone… let’s talk more about Trump! Or read SM’s scattered thoughts.
-Signed out.. early

The point was simple. People who try to time the markets never do it. — Garth
__________________________

Self Directed, I think you are on the right track. I was under weight international equities going into Brexit. So, when the correction came, I loaded up on VDU and VEA. If the correction doesn’t come, you can always buy a little bit each month. When something goes on a tear, I tend to take a little cash off the table. Good luck.

#178 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.15.16 at 4:45 pm

@#166 MF
Science and History eh?
Well done.
Practical and useful.

#179 Greg, Oakville on 10.15.16 at 4:46 pm

Hi #65 Sun…,

Thanks for sharing your observations in your town.
A wrote a long post for you but thought better of it, so he’s a shorter one.

I hope Hillary’s doesn’t really thinking she can have a USA controlled no fly zone over Syria at this stage. Sounds like it would lead to really bad things for all of humanity, like Nuclear WW3. Then the deleted emails… Isn’t Hillary connection to that council of foreign relation group somehow?
Is Trump perfect? Certainly not. Can you trust either one? Personally I’d trust Trump more with the launch codes and Hillary. The votes get to decide in the voting booth what maters the most to them given how they feel at the time. And can you really trust the voting machines? Hopefully. Anyone voting must think so. Thankfully I don’t need to really worry about deciding on either candidate, given I’m not American. It’s always interesting to see the comparison between the pre-election poling and the vote count.
I was going to post a link to some YouTube video about, diabol vote counting machine programmer testimony, and info about Aaron Russo movie and some other stuff he said. But anyone interested can find it if they look.

Why do people spend good money now on soft wear to protect their personal commuters and personal information from malware viruses and hikers, and sometimes that doesn’t even work.
So why would they want to use computers to vote and count the vote and take any chance of the vote being hacked? Do the people that make the effort to vote even think about it?

But maybe I should be pay more attention to what the T2 people are plan on doing with our voting system in Canada. I’m for sticking with the tried and true paper ballots, counted by human hands in the polling stations after the poles close in the Federal elections.
I can wait, what really only amount to a few hours, to insure the vote is legitimate. Of course voter complacence has been taking place (manufactured consent for a while now) by electronic vote counting being used in local and Provincial elections.

The notion that somehow instant voting results using machines could ever out way ever taking even a small chance at all that it is hackable is folly IMO.

Doug& Garth, Thanks for communicating. Knowing portfolio managers are paying attention to the things that can effects their clients’ accounts, and how that might chance from the knowns and unknowns of this world and what they are thinking is nice to here. It’s nice to know your trying to get it right anyway and building in balance to reduce the volatility.

Always appreciated the efforts and the blog.
Thanks.
Greg

#180 BS on 10.15.16 at 4:58 pm

DELETED

#181 Context on 10.15.16 at 4:59 pm

173 Mark M:- I would also point out that wage growth being a critical factor is now at 2.6% year over year rate.

#182 The American on 10.15.16 at 5:04 pm

At #153: Joseph R., did you expect the blog to focus on something else with the U.S. Presidential election so close? I didn’t. For all the hate monger in out there, saying America is ruined, devistated, trashed, or cannot recover, I say it’s ever more clear that canadians are as obsessed today as they’ve always been with the United States. When any one nation pays so much attention to another, it means only one thing. It means the U.S. Is perhaps even MORE relavent snd powerful today than in decades past (and it is). Let’s all agree that everyone loves to hate the prettiest girl at the prom. I can’t wait to see he responses received by others as they want to place claim how damaged the U.S. is. If that’s the case, then stop paying it any attention as it would no longer matter. Haters gotta hate, and we Americans are laughing at the ignorance of outsiders who know absolutely nothing about our process.

#183 MF on 10.15.16 at 5:18 pm

#155 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:11 pm

Good post. I hope Trump wins, but I have to say I don’t understand this weird support for Russia amongst some of his supporters.

Putin is a totalitarian dictator and is not to be trusted at all. The cold war is over, but the world is very much divided still. For our sake (and the entire western world), we need a strong US.

This is where my Trump support comes in. I believe Obama’s foreign policy was an utter failure that consisted of throwing our allies under the bus and pandering to our enemies (who then took advantage of his weak actions). Hillary is a continuation of that failed policy.

MF

#184 Old gringo on 10.15.16 at 5:28 pm

Just wondering if Donald and Hilary decided to
Run away together and run the country from
their country estate……what would their children
look like?????

#185 DON on 10.15.16 at 5:29 pm

#98 BS on 10.15.16 at 2:06 am

I think the most interesting part about this election is what are the Republicans going to do after the election?

They have stood in Obama’s way on just everything he has tried to do. How can they do the same with Hillary after they basically endorse her prior to the election? On the other hand how can they go along with the most hated Democrat ever with a completely different philosophy?

If Trump wins after they snub him Trump will not play game and will get his revenge on the Republicans. He could care less about the Republican party.

Then factor in the hatred the Trump Republican base will have for the party if Trump does lose after they drop their support for him. Trump supporters still make up most of the party.

It is a lose lose lose situation for the Republicans at this point. Could be the end of the party as we know it. Maybe a third right wing party comes in and makes the Republicans a fringe party. Either that or they toss the name and rebrand.
**************
Or the Republican party is playing a game, so Trump appears to be non-establishment. If elected, there will be a quick make-up and business/politics will resume. Reality TV has entered the US election cycle.

#186 DON on 10.15.16 at 5:39 pm

#101 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:41 am

#79 Marcus on 10.14.16 at 10:57 pm
“Hillary wants to impose a no-fly zone over Syria and if she has to shoot down Russian planes with stand off missile weapons systems. Russia was invited by the democratically elected President of Syria and is the only legal entity there. Russia is thrashing ISIS and Al-Nusra forces. America has told Putin to leave ore face the consequences. Obama’s meeting today over Syria produced the strategy that the CIA will start cyber attacks against Russia. Putin just dispatched a complete carrier battle group out of his North Sea fleet bound for Syria and Yemen. 1 Aircraft Carrier, Two battleships, two destroyers, Two intelligence ships, several tender ships and several attack submarines. Norwegian authorities are alarmed at the sheer size of the fleet. Russia has also placed and activated their S-300 and S-400 anti aircraft and anti missile systems all over Syria. They have stated that anything entering Syrian airspace and/or attacking Syrian forces will be shot down immediately. Hillary will absolutely make this into a hot war. Trump, probably not so much.”

So you think Russia’s interest is more important than the US/EU’s? I find it amazing how many people in the West, due to the enshrined rights of freedom of speech protected by Western constitutions, seem to categorically cheer on the other guys and frame any action by the US as evil.

Perhaps Russia was invited by a “democratically elected” government that is murdering its citizens and has displaced millions of their citizens. That doesn’t make Russia’s involvement in propping up this particular regime morally superior to the West.

I guess to you Russia’s bombing of various places in Syria is morally superior than a potential attempt to establish a no-fly zone, which would save lives. Each to their own, I guess…
*****************

Karma, where did you research this topic? More research might present a balance assessment.

#187 Greg, Oakville on 10.15.16 at 5:48 pm

Hi Doug,

I wondered if you might have a comment about this story up at RT. See link. Thanks

“In its technical analysis the HSBC team uses the Elliott Wave Principle which tracks alternating patterns in the stock market to discern investor behavior and possible next moves.”
https://www.rt.com/business/362618-stock-market-severe-fall/

#188 ShawnG in TO on 10.15.16 at 5:58 pm

has no blog dogs noticed Garth might be spending time with Jim’s family on this very difficult time?

#189 DON on 10.15.16 at 6:17 pm

#170 Context on 10.15.16 at 3:04 pm

Do not attempt to criticize Mr. Rowat’s hypothetical presentation which he has sourced. He has outlined all the important items for consideration concerning this sordid election. I have yet to see anywhere another presentation hitting the correct items for discussion and find it all most complete to ascertain a conclusion. He is indeed a key player for prudent portfolio management in my opinion.

**********
Are global conditions factored into this analysis. How about public sentiment – recent trends.

#190 espressobob on 10.15.16 at 6:41 pm

Portfolio managers/advisors have an obligation to their clients, simply to preserve wealth.

DIY amateurs on the other hand are hell bent on selling their positions at the first sign of trouble and find themselves on the losing end. Like that’s something new?

When markets pullback the sinking feeling in ones stomach starts the fear process. A few days later, more downside. What could be worse than watching that treasured portfolio being eviscerated. The ‘sell order’ button seems like the only cure. And thanks if you do.

The funny thing during those stressful periods is finally realizing the buying opportunity presented. Few get this, and that’s ok. I’ll take those dreaded positions.

Pros understand this mechanism. Too bad for those that don’t

#191 Metaxa on 10.15.16 at 6:45 pm

3152 Karma writes:

If this is true, Trump’s support is lower than currently polled:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=0

Thanks for drawing that article to my attention, very illuminating.

However just as Clinton had nothing to do with getting Osama despite being State then and everything to do with Bengazi despite numerous embassy attacks and deaths of US enlisted and citizens under both Bush presidencies that are never mentioned, this article and its conclusions will be ignored by the Trumpeters.

And as I have previously pointed out 4 chan is doing a real number on a lot of the online polls…they don’t care, they just like chaos but the results are trumpeted by those who sort of don’t understand how this is going.

Liberal, left media? Look at media ownership and tell me that with a straight face,eh?

#192 Doug Rowat on 10.15.16 at 7:15 pm

#161 Keith in Calgary on 10.15.16 at 2:30 pm

Doug……..

How those who suckle at the trough of entitlement vote, versus those who make their own way in life, will come to fruition in the only poll that matters, and if my numerous US trips over the last 6 months are any indication, on November 9th, the picture you will be seeing will not be the one that the elites want.

“my numerous US trips…”. Sounds scientific.

–Doug

#193 Smoking Man on 10.15.16 at 8:08 pm

172 Karma on 10.15.16 at 3:30 pm
Doug/Garth,

It seems that Smoking Man (and his Trump-lickin’ brethren) are to US Politics what Mark is to the CAD:USD exchange rate:
Sure, it’s a possibility that Trump wins, or C$1.00 buys US$1.50 one day, but it destroys their credibility and makes people roll their eyes and skip to the next comment!
……

Herdomitor Karma.

I don’t put out foolish calls unless I’m certain. @the river bar in Selemenca. Dude walks in with a red Make America Great again hat. High fives and fist pumps all over the place. Even a black dude.

I’m thinking screw going home tomorrow. Road trip into the heart of America tomorrow. Nashville then new orliens. … I can report back here. If the hope foe the American Dream will be reserected just like Jesus.

#194 greyhound on 10.15.16 at 8:19 pm

I was taught that politics and religion are emotional decisions, not rational ones. Thus everyone has an option. It’s so safe to be opinionated because you can’t be proven wrong — it’s just how you _feel_ that counts. A sigh of relief on Nov 9th no matter what markets do!

#195 Smoking Man on 10.15.16 at 8:20 pm

If your not bald privlaged from Nictonite without a UCC connection. Twitter next best thing for tapping into the mind of the herd.

#196 Future Expatriate on 10.15.16 at 8:28 pm

Word to the rabid anarcons here:

Clinton Derangement Syndrome is always politically fatal.

Prepare for weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth in Goshen.

That is all.

#197 Smoking Man on 10.15.16 at 8:40 pm

#190 Doug Rowat on 10.15.16 at 7:15 pm
#161 Keith in Calgary on 10.15.16 at 2:30 pm

Doug……..

How those who suckle at the trough of entitlement vote, versus those who make their own way in life, will come to fruition in the only poll that matters, and if my numerous US trips over the last 6 months are any indication, on November 9th, the picture you will be seeing will not be the one that the elites want.

“my numerous US trips…”. Sounds scientific.

–Doug
…..
Doug.

Scintists on UN payrolls lie, 98% of them do. takes one to know one.. Can you blame them. Everyone deserves to eat.

How is it possable to get 98 of a 100 people to agree on anything if there lively hoods didn’t depend on agreeing.

Damn, why is it always on my back to set the record straight.

Man made climate change is bull shit. Come get me Butts and T2 .

I’m leaving the treasury with a truck with a broken windshield 300k kilometres.

SO I kiss my 550 dollar month pension out the window.

I’m smarter than the average bear. Catch me if you can communist. Do it quick. I’m gone soon.

#198 For those about to flop... on 10.15.16 at 8:59 pm

#186 ShawnG in TO on 10.15.16 at 5:58 pm
has no blog dogs noticed Garth might be spending time with Jim’s family on this very difficult time?

//////////////////////////////////

Yes ,that was my first thoughts when Robax’s proposed Saturday post went a day early.

I am playing catchup when it comes to Canadian politics and so I am not sure as to how all the connections work.

One thing I do know is that whenever I thought of Jim Prentice, I thought back to his infamous “mirror” comment and I know it irked a lot of people but I actually liked it.

Sometimes the truth hurts…

M42BC

#199 Smoking Man on 10.15.16 at 8:59 pm

When a man , and I can’t include woman in this. Woman always give a shit.

When a man finally says no gold at the end of the rainbow.

It’s a liberated feeling. You got the loved one of your life in the right seat where all good girls should go for true happyness.

I’m sure a few crue cuts will disagree.
You had your chance ladies and you blew it.

Ya see, other normal woman have sons. And if you try and hurt a woman’s child. You’re doomed.no matter how big your boots are made for walking.

Enjoy Prez Donald.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#200 WUL on 10.15.16 at 9:02 pm

Yorkville is about to see the greatest swap market ever. One Leafs’ jersey thrown onto the ice traded for three Blue Jays’ jerseys thrown onto the field (maybe three Jays jerseys and a beer can for a #34 Matthews).

#201 Context on 10.15.16 at 9:03 pm

Fed rate hike coming this December for 25 basis points and if I am wrong will eat cake and make it chocolate.

#202 Yuus bin Haad on 10.15.16 at 9:17 pm

In Hillary’s own words: “What difference at this point does it make?”

#203 Looney Baloney on 10.15.16 at 9:19 pm

Nate probably has another one of these penned and ready to go live the day after the election:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

#204 Jimbo on 10.15.16 at 9:19 pm

Power is distributed in the U.S. between the congress, senate and president. This triad has existed so that they mutually keep one another in check. If all three groups are in agreement, I believe, this could have a synergistic effect with positive outcomes for the American people.

Who would do a better job of yielding power over congress?

#205 The doubter on 10.15.16 at 9:26 pm

I am appalled that so many Trump supporters in this site. Do they seriously believe that Trump can win or they just want to argue just for the sake of arguing?

#206 Pulp Faction on 10.15.16 at 10:24 pm

Want to know the health of the economy ?
Ask a truck driver. We go to everybody’s business and transport everybody’s products. There’s nothing you can hide from us, we infiltrate every nook and cranny and we talk to everybody, especially the nothing little pee-ons that know everything about the businesses and appreciate anybody acknowledging their existence.

Truck transportation has really slowed down and has been slowing most of the summer, when it should be the opposite during the summer months….we should be extremely busy but trucks are parked.

#207 Smoking Man on 10.15.16 at 10:29 pm

Birds. not spelled Byrd or Robin properly.

Control me. Welcome me, not saying this Alien ship will take a dump on a Muskoka Island. Love people with the name of Hunter, Hell I’m that now.

I know better. But if I’m down to my last Craft Dinner package.

Anything is posable.

Book 2 MAYBE.

Andy said. your acceptance letter is in HR Now. I know what that means. Wife gets no more slots and my life is over. You goofs saw my mug shot on Greater Fool.

You should never have JS me and Humiliated me in your quest for alpha promotion syndrome on the trading floor

If my first book launch does shit. Your mine. Book two.

Take out a mortgage on that shack in Muskoka ISLAND Johnny boy , buy lots of my books.

Not one response to buffalo bills on my trump wins post to the football pool.

You’re scared and you should be. I’m dying nothing to lose.

Dignity is all I’m asking for.. two months.

Never hire a rivet bucker with door to door skills.

When Nothing else matters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ckom3gf57Yw

#208 Mark M. on 10.15.16 at 10:38 pm

#179 – Context

2.6% year over year wage growth doesn’t matter to the Fed, who are looking at, at best, 1.5% GDP growth for the year, 40 year low labor participation rates, and a sixth straight quarter of declining corporate earnings.

The US economy is headed for recession, they will not hike into a recession.

As for inflation worries, they couldn’t care less. Already you have Paul Krugman spreading more Keynesian nonsense suggesting the US economy needs 4% inflation rather than 2%. As if it needs any inflation?

How does making a basket of goods cost more help grow the economy? It doesn’t. Yet on Friday Yellen introduced the notion, by December it will be policy.

No rate hikes this year, and none next year. Before long rate cuts and stimulus will return because it’s all they know.

#209 BillyBob on 10.15.16 at 10:39 pm

#180 The American on 10.15.16 at 5:04 pm
At #153: Joseph R., did you expect the blog to focus on something else with the U.S. Presidential election so close? I didn’t. For all the hate monger in out there, saying America is ruined, devistated, trashed, or cannot recover, I say it’s ever more clear that canadians are as obsessed today as they’ve always been with the United States. When any one nation pays so much attention to another, it means only one thing. It means the U.S. Is perhaps even MORE relavent snd powerful today than in decades past (and it is). Let’s all agree that everyone loves to hate the prettiest girl at the prom. I can’t wait to see he responses received by others as they want to place claim how damaged the U.S. is. If that’s the case, then stop paying it any attention as it would no longer matter. Haters gotta hate, and we Americans are laughing at the ignorance of outsiders who know absolutely nothing about our process.

====================================

Errr…then I guess it’s a good thing Amurrica has you to come onto a Canadian real estate blog and set things straight.

I agree with your opinion of ignorant outsiders. It just amuses me that you can’t seem to see that that’s exactly how your own angry ranting makes you appear.

If the Trump/Clinton freak show you’re treating the world to is the “prettiest girl in the room”, dog help us all. Any interest the world has in the US election is limited to the hopes that maybe whomever is elected won’t destroy the world economy (again) or plunge the world into war (again).

It isn’t hate, and it certainly isn’t rapt admiration.

#210 Truth on 10.15.16 at 10:45 pm

DELETED

#211 Smoking Man on 10.15.16 at 10:56 pm

No words to hammered to threaten

My song, the song of a rider of the universe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj75Arhq5ho

Love humans, love me back,,,,,I’m a bald alien with missing teeth

#212 Steve French on 10.15.16 at 11:29 pm

Hey Smoking Man:

My spidey-senses are tingling.. there’s a disturbance in the force. The UCC man… the Universal Consciousness Consolidator.

After a scotch last night i had a zombie apocalypse dream.

I think something will happen in the global economy in the next 2 months.

Smokey gt me tuned into the UCC. I’ve learned to trust my instincts.

Get out of stocks.

Sell the house. Sell the car. Sell the kids. Sell Everything.

Forget it.

You heard it here first.

#213 Nemesis on 10.16.16 at 2:30 am

#ForCaptainBillyBob… #MPAA:PG13[Language]

https://youtu.be/TmoeZHnOJKA

[NoteToGT: Been there, done that… Just between the two of us, how bad could a little honest isolationism really be?]

#214 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central on 10.16.16 at 2:33 am

#151 Doug Rowat on 10.15.16 at 1:51 pm
#17 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Central on 10.14.16 at 6:53 pm

“And PredictWise and FiveThirtyEight say his odds are less than 15%, not me. I say his odds are even less than that.

–Doug”

And so far, every one of you has been wrong. Keep up the trend. Looking forward to November.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvyRIgPImOY

#215 Andres on 10.16.16 at 3:00 am

If there’s one thing the comments here today have taught me it’s that a lot of people are legit insane. Like literally believing the Democrats are rigging the voting machines insane. You people watch too much TV or something – you have a rich internal fantasy life.

#216 jess on 10.16.16 at 7:21 am

real estate lobby
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2016/10/trumps-tax-losses-and-the-political-power-of-real-estate/

========================
ask yourself how $10 million in anonymous contributions becomes more than $20 million in overall spending in the network of dark money groups, before being condensed back into $10 million in political spending

https://www.opensecrets.org/dark-money/

#217 #121 Cloud Model T vs. Ferrari on 10.16.16 at 7:47 am

It is not another “tool”, it is how the majority of business computing exists today. Here is a quickie on 2016 budgeting:

http://www.computerworld.com/article/3012628/it-management/forecast-2016-essential-data-points-for-the-tech-year-ahead.html#slide3

Note right hand side decrease in expenditure, that’s where SQL Server & ADO fit in, or more like out.

You need to take a course from someone that will teach how to use this in business. Not me, retired.

By calling it a another “tool” you have no idea what has been accomplished in business with these technologies over the past 5 to 10 years, typical Big Data/Cloud implementation ROIs in the 100’s of %.

Why use of old style dB’s in general is laughable.

bsant

#218 White Privilege on 10.16.16 at 8:50 am

#155 and #157 Karma on 10.15.16 at 2:17 pm
Huge difference between your proposed switch and reality. Hispanics (50m), Asians (10m), normal white males (60m) and women in general (160m) are against Trump. Trump’s going to get less support than Romney did in 2012.
——-
I don’t know much about the classifications of the electorate but if your knowledge of the electorate is as bad as your knowledge about the truth in Syria concerning the USA and Russia then i feel quite confident you’re wrong about everything.

Reading many comments today is very amazing how ignorant the masses really are. The propaganda is strong.

TRUMP 2016 OR DIE!

#219 Greater Fool Sports Team Update! on 10.16.16 at 8:53 am

Breaking Sports News!!!

MLB – ALCS Game 2 Results:

Cleveland Victims of Racist White Genocidal Oppression

2

Toronto Blue Jays

1

The Victims of Racist White Genocidal Oppression now lead the series, 2 games to 0.

Cleveland was able to further overcome unjust European colonialism through solid pitching by Tomlin and Miller at Progressive Field (named after Cleveland’s anti-racism approach to modern sports) .

Game 3 begins at 8:08 p.m. Monday at Rogers Centre (named after an exploitative colonial corporation overcharging immigrants of colour for their data bundles) Blue Jays fans will be hoping that a comeback will be led by Jose Bautista, a distant descendant of the original white European genocidal racist, Christopher Columbus.

This update brought to you by the Greater Fool Sports Team.

Enjoy the Game!

#220 White Privilege on 10.16.16 at 9:08 am

#162 Bruce on 10.15.16 at 2:31 pm
If Clinton wins she will the the epitome of a puppet. At least Obama golfed, played B ball and socialized a lot, while Hilary will likely spend next year in a hospice and then the remaining four years will literally be weekend at Bernies for real while the deep state runs the show.

And what a show it will be. A total military/CIA controlled government system of martial law, filling fema camps, control over food supply and distribution, a billion rounds of spent hollow point ammunition in the war on the second amendment and millions of dead constitutionalist’s lives exterminated as per prepared target lists.

Of course the internet will be fully policed and regulated and licensed and the first amendment will be only a once upon a time….

The from there it just gets worse.

Who left the back gate open again? — Garth

#221 Polls on 10.16.16 at 9:28 am

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-15/statisticians-warn-systemic-mainstream-misinformation-poll-data

#222 White Privilege on 10.16.16 at 9:52 am

So you won’t allow my comments because you don’t like what i’m saying.

This is the type of censorship that will become pervasive. Bigots like you in the halls of power are working to eliminate dissenting views.

Judging by many comments of stupid Canadians, your are their hero Garth, lord of the flies and full of shit.

Just go away. — Garth

#223 Cloud on 10.16.16 at 9:56 am

#215 #121 Cloud Model T vs. Ferrari on 10.16.16 at 7:47 am

It is not another “tool”, it is how the majority of business computing exists today. Here is a quickie on 2016 budgeting:

http://www.computerworld.com/article/3012628/it-management/forecast-2016-essential-data-points-for-the-tech-year-ahead.html#slide3

Note right hand side decrease in expenditure, that’s where SQL Server & ADO fit in, or more like out.

You need to take a course from someone that will teach how to use this in business. Not me, retired.

By calling it a another “tool” you have no idea what has been accomplished in business with these technologies over the past 5 to 10 years, typical Big Data/Cloud implementation ROIs in the 100’s of %.

Why use of old style dB’s in general is laughable.

====

It is just an other tool. Live with it.

Like virtualization for hardware, network, docker, hyperconverged, whatever…

You can accomplish whatever you want in a great variety of ways, with a great variety of tools.

Nothing is wrong with the cloud – it’s great for many things. Depends on what you have, what you want. It’s not the one and only solution, as preached by teachers and marketers for the herd.

If his goal can be done with ADO, etc. and that’s where he is a wizard, that’s the environment he owns already it makes perfect sense for him to do it with that tool – regardless of other existing tools, solutions.

Man landed on the Moon without the cloud.

#224 White Privilege on 10.16.16 at 10:04 am

oh shit! nevermind…

#225 legit insane on 10.16.16 at 10:06 am

#213 Andres on 10.16.16 at 3:00 am

If there’s one thing the comments here today have taught me it’s that a lot of people are legit insane. Like literally believing the Democrats are rigging the voting machines insane. You people watch too much TV or something – you have a rich internal fantasy life.

===

You said the same when people claimed that the phones are tapped, the emails, your internet traffic are monitored.

When it turned out to be true you did not say that it was insane to do it, you rolled over and accepted it as legit without the slightest resistance.

I think you are the definition of insane. Or slave.

#226 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.16 at 10:36 am

@#169MF
“lots of support from Trump from non whites and women (here in Canada in the GTA anyway).”
********************************************

Well.
According to ALL the polls the majority of Trump supporters are older, white, males……. I’m sure there are a few misguided women and minorities that support him but God only knows why.
Thats why he’s sucking in all the polls.
Statistically speaking. Older, white men arent in a majority and they are no longer able to swing elections……
Trumps own mouth is his worst enemy. He wont shut up. He CANT stop talking because he’s “brilliant”, “awesome”, “amazing”, and on and on and on ad nauseum. Nor, apparently does he listen to his own advosrs who, I’m sure, are pulling the last vestiges of their hair out.
I just dont want Melania Trump as the next “Vife” in the “Vite House”.
Fingernails on a chalkboard dont even begin to describe her voice.
But then again, with Donalds history with women and so many potential White House pages running around in skimpy dresses…..I’m sure divorce #4 wont be too far along.
As for your second point…..
Strangely, Canadians weren’t polled for a US election.

#227 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.16 at 10:47 am

#218 White Priviledge
“A total military/CIA controlled government system of martial law, filling fema camps, control over food supply and distribution, a billion rounds of spent hollow point ammunition in the war on the second amendment and millions of dead constitutionalist’s lives exterminated as per prepared target lists.”
********************************************

Yeah I saw that movie too.
I think Dustin Hoffman starred in the leading roll with Donald Sutherland as the “evil” general. Rene Russo as the uninterested former exwife. Morgan Freeman as the “good” general . Kevin Spacey actually had a sappy bit roll too, dies half way through the movie to keep the audience interested as to “who’s next”.

Its run was mediocre at the box office….just like your “White Priviledge” fantasy …….sappy, predictable, overly dramatic, unoriginal, mindless pap.
Go back into the back woods and throw another log on the moonshine still and whittle another tooth for your dentures.
Avoid keyboards, you’re embarrassing your race.

#228 The American on 10.16.16 at 10:53 am

At #216: White Privilege, then be prepared to die. Hillary is the next President.

#229 The American on 10.16.16 at 10:57 am

At #207: Billy Bob, c’mon the U.S. didn’t destroy the world economy anymore than all the other nations participating, which is pretty much every other country, Canada included. So, take some responsibility. After all, the U.S. did indeed contribute considerably for the silent bail out of Canadian banks during the same American bank bail out that took place. The difference? Oh yeah, Canda just kept doing the same shit, different day. Zero behavioral changes, which is pretty sick and messed up considering your bail out was actually 64% higher per capita than what took place here. Who’s fault is that?

#230 Context on 10.16.16 at 11:16 am

I am beginning to feel sorry for Sir Lew as how is he going to beat this essay presentation. Perhaps he will take a leave of absence or call in sick; we shall see.

#231 The cloud on 10.16.16 at 12:26 pm

#215 CM vs F,

So true my friend…for those who know the price of everything, and the value of nothing.

fwiw.

#232 jess on 10.16.16 at 12:49 pm

the future internet of things

Are lawsuits and government regulations going to help mitigate the security threat from the 20 billion IoT devices?
13
Oct 16
IoT (internet of things) Devices as Proxies for Cybercrime
Multiple stories published here over the past few weeks have examined the disruptive power of hacked “Internet of Things” (IoT) devices such as routers, IP cameras and digital video recorders. This post looks at how crooks are using hacked IoT devices as proxies to hide their true location online as they engage in a variety of other types of cybercriminal activity — from frequenting underground forums to credit card and tax refund fraud.”
https://krebsonsecurity.com/2016/10/europe-to-push-new-security-rules-amid-iot-mess

#233 DON on 10.16.16 at 1:05 pm

#213 Andres on 10.16.16 at 3:00 am

If there’s one thing the comments here today have taught me it’s that a lot of people are legit insane. Like literally believing the Democrats are rigging the voting machines insane. You people watch too much TV or something – you have a rich internal fantasy life.
***************

Treat Democracy with the respect and due care it requires. It is innocent and must be protected by constant independent scrutiny. Assumptions should be validated. It scares me more that people aren’t checking on things and reported back to the public.

#234 DON on 10.16.16 at 1:09 pm

#204 Pulp Faction on 10.15.16 at 10:24 pm

Want to know the health of the economy ?
Ask a truck driver. We go to everybody’s business and transport everybody’s products. There’s nothing you can hide from us, we infiltrate every nook and cranny and we talk to everybody, especially the nothing little pee-ons that know everything about the businesses and appreciate anybody acknowledging their existence.

Truck transportation has really slowed down and has been slowing most of the summer, when it should be the opposite during the summer months….we should be extremely busy but trucks are parked.
************
Thanks for the info,

#235 DON on 10.16.16 at 1:28 pm

Who left the back gate open again? — Garth
**********

Oops…was helping SM to his taxi and Whitey must have slipped in with the others. Won’t happen again!

#236 Context on 10.16.16 at 1:39 pm

#187 DON:- I will give you recent trends and sentiment. The members of the Republican Congress are staying away from Trump as are in trouble with their voters now over his statements and perceived acts.

#237 I am Canadian on 10.16.16 at 1:43 pm

DELETED

#238 DON on 10.16.16 at 1:52 pm

#174 Boomers Rush In on 10.15.16 at 4:02 pm

Many anecdotal reports that the boomers are rushing in to sell their homes at record price in GVRD. Is it too late? Many homes are still getting sold in the burbs despite horrendous traffic on highway to anywhere.
********

They finally remembered the past and are heading to the exits.

#239 DON on 10.16.16 at 2:03 pm

#203 The doubter on 10.15.16 at 9:26 pm

I am appalled that so many Trump supporters in this site. Do they seriously believe that Trump can win or they just want to argue just for the sake of arguing?
**************

Have you read anything but the corporate news? If you do, your choice for president would be the 3rd choice. Third choice may be gaining some traction.

Who would you rather be stuck with in a fox hole Hillary or Trump? Answering as a male – Trump. I would have to keep on close eye on Clinton to ensure she didn’t make a deal with the enemy. No trust there at all. My thoughts.

#240 not 1st on 10.16.16 at 2:16 pm

Doug, perhaps you should extend your forecast out past the first quarter.

Trump is just a vessel and Hilary a place holder. In 2020, things could be much worse. Odds are super high a real recession will have occurred in those years which will only add to the ranks of the disaffected. They arent going away just cause trump loses.

#241 jess on 10.16.16 at 2:19 pm

Hundreds of properties could be seized in UK corruption crackdown

New criminal finances bill will include ‘unexplained wealth order’ forcing suspects to disclose source of their assets

…”The criminal finances bill, published on Thursday, is designed to close a loophole which has left the authorities powerless to seize property from overseas criminals unless the individuals are first convicted in their country of origin.

It will introduce the concept of “unexplained wealth orders”. The Serious Fraud Office, HM Revenue and Customs and other agencies will be able to apply to the high court for an order forcing the owner of an asset to explain how they obtained the funds to purchase it.”

The law targets not just criminals, but politicians and public officials, known as “politically exposed persons”. Depending on how quickly it passes through parliament, the bill could come into force as early as spring 2017….In a single 50-storey apartment complex in London, the Tower at St George Wharf in Vauxhall, a quarter of the flats are held through offshore companies….Those targeted will not need to be resident in the UK. So long as their assets are in the UK, an order can be enforced. The law will apply to property acquired before it is introduced. ”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/13/properties-seized-assets-corrupt-cash-crackdown-criminal-finances-bill-tax-haven

#242 jess on 10.16.16 at 2:31 pm

..”No fewer than 62 per cent of the 210 apartments where the title deeds are available are believed to be in foreign ownership. Out of a total of 214, no one is registered to vote in the UK in 184 of them.”

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3609761/Tower-greed-Bought-foreign-plutocrats-51m-flat-skyscraper-s-symbol-Britain-s-sold-soul-super-rich.html#ixzz4NH3tacfD

#243 Context on 10.16.16 at 2:39 pm

Mike Pence who is Trump’s VP nominee had some encouraging words for the press and read between the lines :). He stated he promises to accept the outcome of November’s vote. What?

#244 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.16.16 at 3:22 pm

It’s astounding that the American people could propel a candidate like Trump so close to the White House!

I feel embarrassed for our southern neighbors.

It reminds me of the George Bush presidency and when the Philippines elected Strongman Duterte as well as Movie Star Estrada. Also Venezuelan Pres. Chavez.

All psychopathic war mongers or strongmen. Sadly the most aggressive people usually move into power.

The fact that Trump could have gotten so far speaks volumes about the average intelligence level of our Southern neighbor. Having said that they likely have more genius level IQ performers than we have citizens in Canada!

What a sad state of affairs.

#245 Karma on 10.16.16 at 4:27 pm

Coyne on Trump supporters:

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/andrew-coyne-how-does-donald-trump-still-have-supporters

Bang-effin’-on!

#246 Metaxa on 10.16.16 at 4:35 pm

Amazing how some have the entire geo-political thing all figured out to fit their personal paranoid fantasy but can’t fathom posts queuing up for moderation.

From right above the comment window:

• All comments are held a short time for moderation before being published. Please submit only once!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

All politics starts in your back yard. Stop electing single issue nut bars to school boards, stop electing low intelligence idiots to town/city/RD councils, stop allowing the morons to “graduate” to Provincial politics, stop looking for the bad guys everywhere and take a good long look in the mirror.

Tell me how the (formerly) Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party of Canada is doing with its leadership issue? See any women or men of high character in the race or do we have the smart ones running for the hills while the single issue, social fascists jockey for position?

How about Rona? Quarter of a million in expenses in half a year. You go, girl!
Even the most vacant millennial living in Vancouver with a brand new million dollar mortgage isn’t as bereft of situational awareness as some of you Easterners with your “ideas” on how thing work.

You cheered on Rob Ford, you cheer on the current situation as it relates to our future and you cheer on Trump.
All is not right in your world and that would be for reasons that only you can control…but you seem unable to do so.

#247 DON on 10.16.16 at 4:50 pm

#234 Context on 10.16.16 at 1:39 pm

#187 DON:- I will give you recent trends and sentiment. The members of the Republican Congress are staying away from Trump as are in trouble with their voters now over his statements and perceived acts.
**********

Politics is all about perceptions and game playing to win. What is propelling Trump, why him against Hillary and not another?

#248 MF on 10.16.16 at 5:57 pm

#242 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.16.16 at 3:2

A real embarrassment is who we just elected.

MF

#249 Jack on 10.17.16 at 1:42 pm

DELETED

#250 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 10.17.16 at 2:26 pm

Doug have your researched the ‘K’ wave in the stock market…. Might be time to position yourself for a ‘K’ wave or at least 50% K