Hard to ignore

turkey-modified-modified

This, trust me, is the last time (this week) the word ‘Trump’ will stain this pathetic blog. But let’s go with the adjective. Trumpian. That makes more sense. It ain’t actually about the guy, more about what it is he’s tapped into – and what difference that will have on investing. After all, we don’t care about social justice or systemic equality here. We just wanna be wealthy.

There are two big trends in the world to recognize. And harness.

First, this is the bottom of the interest rate cycle. With many central banks and bond yields negative around the world, with the Royal Bank willing to give you a home loan at 2.09%, with people drooling over 1.5% ‘high-interest’ accounts and retirees buying crap investments (like pooled mortgage funds) desperate for yield, the writing’s on the wall. There is no more to come. The Bank of Canada is highly unlikely to cut again (the next ate move would be next Wednesday), as are other major central bankers around the world.

In fact the odds of a US increase by the Fed on December 14th grew to 70% on Tuesday. As a result, the sell-off in American government bonds increased as prices dropped and yields increased. Wall Street shed 200 points in anticipation of the punch bowl being taken away from the party, and the US currency bumped higher, taking our dollarette lower. Pacific Investment Management forecast two, and likely three, Fed increases by this time next year.

So the cost of money will rise. Slowly but relentlessly. There is nothing below us. The implications for the Canadian real estate market – already sucker-punched by Wild Bill Morneau last Monday – are legion.

By the way, the Trumpian response to low rates has been to insist they be raised. Fed boss Janet Yellen has even been accused of not having the balls to do so. Imagine that.

The other big trend is what propelled Brexit and created The Donald. The anti-globalism movement is gaining momentum, and will not go away until there are palpable consequences. Middle-class voters on both sides of the Atlantic are angry at the job exodus, outsourcing and the loss of a quality of life they believed was their birthright. The Trumpian objects of this anger are China, Mexicans, multinational CEOs, Wall Streeters, 1%ers, free-trading politicians and immigrant workers, to name a few.

Whatever the outcome of the November 8th slugfest (like it’s even in doubt) you can bet on a world that’s more protectionist, less global and more nationalistic. In practical terms that means higher wages, higher prices, more inflation and increasing commodity prices. All of those things, in turn, feed interest rates and allow central banks to wean off the cheap money narcotic.

None of this happens overnight. But it’s all coming.

Among the implications: fixed-income assets will probably get cheaper as prices drop and yields increase. It’s perfectly okay to have bonds in your portfolio to reduce volatility, but ensure they have short duration (close to maturity) to minimize the impact. As rates creep higher, first in the US in less than 10 weeks, then in the bond market and later in 2017 in Canada, some assets will benefit mightily. Like rate-reset preferreds. They’re on sale now and still pay a 5% yield with a tax credit. That’s like free sprinkles.

Higher inflation, wage increases and growing commodity prices will actually be good for the Canadian economy. So you might want to pay more attention to Maple over the next year or two. And prepare for increased turbulence on markets, as changes like these never come smoothly. Stocks could drop into correction territory (a 10% decline) between now and the end of the year, which should end up being a nice little buying opportunity. Of course the Nobel-winning macroeconomists who live in this blog’s comment section with the Moms will tell you it’s the end of America, but ignore ‘em.

There is no US recession on the horizon. No Donald, either. But the Trumpian days are just dawning.

170 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 10.11.16 at 6:26 pm

Here in Kanada you are free to leave anytime, but don’t count on vacationing in coming years. Too expensive.

Our airlines signed on to that global Paris “climate change” nonsense and punitive carbon taxes.
Of course this goal is limiting our freedom of travel – concentrating us into cities

Did ya note how Paris was softened up beforehand using terror attacks? Now the bill is in place you’ll see no more attacks. This is what runs the world.

#2 Doug t on 10.11.16 at 6:34 pm

Trump is only the face that represents the mood of many. 2017 is going to be rockier than this year – Clinton (as bad as Trump) wins but the mood will get worse in the U.S. The 1% have painted themselves into a corner and the 99% are fed up. Change is everywhere – be part of the change and be heard.

Rage against the machine

#3 Penny Henny on 10.11.16 at 6:35 pm

Hello Garth,
Do you think that the structure of a portfolio should be different for those saving for retirement as compared to those in retirement?
Assuming the individual is not filthy rich like you or Scrooge McDuck.

#4 pathcontrolmonk on 10.11.16 at 6:38 pm

There is still the chance that Trump drops out and Pence takes over, in which case Hillary may be hooped.

#5 Parksville Prankster on 10.11.16 at 6:39 pm

Thank goodness! I dollar cost averaged my ZPR etfs down to around 12 bucks, and even with the 5% yield, I’m sideways about 6% since I got on board. It’ll be good to see them finally appreciate a little after 3 years.

#6 Sebee on 10.11.16 at 6:40 pm

So no way Trump wins?

I have a feeling that there are a lot of people saying they won’t vote for Trump to pollsters or friends, but when they enter that booth…the poop’n’scoop bag may hit the fan.

#7 The Nature Boy on 10.11.16 at 6:42 pm

Some spectacular incident will be fabricated by the “Establishment” that will ensure crooked Hillary gets into the POTUS job. The average middle class American that is drowning in debt, has been subjected to MSM disinformation for years and scared to lose his job will be swayed to side with Hillary for some perverted reason.
If Canadians were intellectually shallow enough to vote for Dear Selfie Leader Justin, well, he will then win again in 2019
We’re just like them south of us.

#8 j0n on 10.11.16 at 6:44 pm

Blog dogs: What are some good examples of “rate-reset preferreds… on sale now and still paying a 5% yield with a tax credit”?

#9 MF on 10.11.16 at 6:48 pm

#145 rjrt81 on 10.11.16 at 5:48 pm

“ugh. you get worse by the week. your opinions are just that. not facts like you try and pretend. you make my brain hurt.”

-Home owner who depends on “equity” to retire on?
-Real estate agent?

When someone disagrees with a statement (like your comment says), but has zero rebuttal (like your comment), the first thing they do is try to attack character (like your comment). The result is that a worthless pathetic response (like your comment).

MF

-My experience is anytime someone says something that someone else disagree with but have zero response to

#10 TCContrarian on 10.11.16 at 6:48 pm

In agreement with just about everything here…except, that a 10% drop (in the US market), is to be viewed as a ‘buying opportunity’.

Question- a reasonable one (and hopefully it will be answered this time):

Is it ever a time to ‘sell’ the US market (in anticipation of a drop considerably larger than 10%)?
If we apply the same criteria as in RE valuations (‘sell now’ because the fundamentals don’t support these prices), isn’t the same true for stocks with P/E ratios >30?

Furthermore, we’ve had a 7-year bull-market- one of the longest in history – and we are still to expect a continuation?
I don’t get the logic. Will anyone enlighten me?

#11 MF on 10.11.16 at 6:50 pm

Bad editing but “rjrt81” will get the idea. ^

MF

#12 Rudygq on 10.11.16 at 6:50 pm

This election cycle is largely about the changing of eras. Namely going from a industrialized to a knowledge based society. Those who can adapt fast enough will benefit, those who can’t will not. This is not a new concept as we find big businesses gravitating to the urban centres where the knowledge is concentrated. The rural communities do not get to share in as much of the prosperity and consequently are the most negatively impacted by this global shift. It is not reasonable to blame governments when the free market deems a skill set no longer valuable leaving many frustrated and feeling ‘left behind’ as capital is rapidly redistributed to be most efficiently utilized. There are many of these communities throughout the heartland who have come together to air their anger and champion a leader who will ‘restore’ things back to the ‘go ole days’. Ironically it is the conservative politicians of these communities who remain staunchly supportive of the Donald and the Republican representatives in the more urban centres have a different (constituent) and must voice their ‘disapproval’ of the nominees’ behaviour to distance themselves and preserve their seats. Ah, the free market you gotta love it…..but it’s different here.

#13 Karma on 10.11.16 at 6:52 pm

Howard Marks is a great writer who makes things easy to digest. And he’s very rich and successful. Read his most recent memo:

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

#14 Pepito on 10.11.16 at 6:56 pm

This is just speculation (again) on your part regarding interest rates. Your argument is weak. You show little evidence rates have bottomed out, and even less why they can’t simply remain this low for longer. Look at Japan.

#15 Long-Time Lurker on 10.11.16 at 7:00 pm

Janet Yellen — no balls. Hee hee!

I think Morneau did the right thing. We were heading for a housing market crash like the U.S. for the same reasons. We didn’t reach NINJA loans but we got pretty close. The Feds slammed the breaks. Hopefully only the flippers will take a beating.

You and your blog are appreciated, Garth.

If you want a reason to continue just put up some affiliate advertising, collect the extra cash and take out the missus for a nice dinner once in a while.

I read your Greater Fool book. Your reasoning was sound but it looks like the timing was off a bit.

I think I’ll stop writing. I miss lurking.

#16 the Jaguar on 10.11.16 at 7:01 pm

We live in interesting times. All thanks to the world wide web. The biggest game changer of all times. No wonder the disgruntled masses south of the border find themselves in their current state of affairs – despondent in their choices of a suitable presidential candidate. Or those in any number of third world countries that even at the lowest levels of poverty are able to ‘google’ the riches of other locales, ours included. Good thing that big ocean and legendary snow and cold offers a small discouragement. The Jaguar admits not always liking to share with others,unless they can contribute to the greater improvement of lives overall. Sue me.
With the ‘fix in’ south of the border we can now all strap ourselves into the roller coaster arms of the next adventure awaiting us. It won’t be pretty for some. Flexibility, liquidity, modesty, simplicity will be the elements of protection from past excesses. Beware the ‘natural born killers’ who will show no mercy in their panic to exit the coming storm. When the fecal matter hits the oculating rotator please remind yourselves of your personal responsibility for your current state of affairs.
That’s all ‘the Jaguar’ has to say about such things. Cat-like agility and powers of observation in warp drive.

#17 Cittingham a bargain on 10.11.16 at 7:01 pm

You can’t make a comment like ” pooled mortgage funds are crap” and not explain why.

Why can’t they be part of a diversified portfolio ?

#18 Mark on 10.11.16 at 7:02 pm

“Apparently he was waiting to see Mark critique his segment on This week in Money ,but it never materialized.”

Sorry buddy, a few things came up this week and I’ve had very little time. In a nutshell, Ross Kay’s logic is almost irrefutable, and he certainly didn’t mince words. Garth’s claim today that the next BoC move isn’t a rate cut is a perfect Segway to what I was going to say, and that is, with so much net worth chopped out of Canadian households, the BoC may very well be significantly behind the curve at this point in lowering policy rates.. Not a chance of the next BoC move being a hike. They might pause until the CAD$ rises to 1.25 or above (currently $1.32CAD/USD), but with so much demand chopped out of the Canadian economy, the BoC will need to ramp up their deflation-fighting efforts with ZIRP and perhaps even NIRP.

#19 preferrably withheld on 10.11.16 at 7:05 pm

A sibling recently had to apply for a job, it was their own in fact, a process this O&G major required of all employees of the site if they wanted to have the chance of staying employed. This reorganization scheme would rattle my nerves but apparently not theirs. So, it was a successful application and they got to keep the position, and the sibling and the significant other celebrate the very next day by putting a deposit on a new unbuilt house in Calgary.

This sibling went on to lecture me about how ‘good it will be for real estate’ with the new mortgage rules for stress testing. They went on about how the average home buyer will finally be obliged to live within their means, and that somehow with the average family purchasing power soon to be set back, that their pending doubling down on real estate in cow town is not only a wise move ahead of the new rules, but representative of their superior financial smarts.

How misunderstood and foolish is their perspective.

#20 Trumpian on 10.11.16 at 7:06 pm

True. Trump has moved the Overton Window into “new” territory. He has contributed to creating a discussion that would have been taboo only a year ago. The Far Left, Pseudo-conservatives (cuckservatives), and the Establishment are in full-on panic mode.

#21 Trumpian on 10.11.16 at 7:11 pm

@TurnerNation

Are you claiming that the Paris terrorist attacks were part of a plan to to pass a climate change bill?

#22 Rexx Rock on 10.11.16 at 7:15 pm

Mark December 4th on your calender.Thats when Italians vote and could be the begining of Italy leaving the euro union.The market will tank just like Brexit.Play UVXY OR TVIX for easy money!!!JNUG or NUGT may be a good bet also to rake in the money.Lower rates for Canada because thats the only game in town.Bigger debt is what Canadians only know.We will take the Japan playbook to the end.

#23 MF on 10.11.16 at 7:17 pm

Good article Garth. The recognition that Trumpism isn’t going anywhere after the election is a massive issue that absolutely needs to be addressed. Our leaders will have to adapt or else there will be big consequences.

The feeling now is that militant Liberals, or “the left”, have gone too far with the nauseating PC culture. If you disagree you are immediately labeled and threatened. It also seems to be strangely and suspiciously coinciding with economic malaise. Reeks of manipulation.

It all started with the refugee crisis. Merkel letting in millions of potentially hostile military aged males into Europe/Germay woke up a lot of people. This was especially at a time when the EU is falling apart and struggling economically. It was a huge misstep on her part, and reminiscent of the missteps of many leaders today. It fueled a level of anger/resentment towards the establishment that has not been seen for a while. This was Liberalism totally out of control and it hit a nerve.

Again, to matters worse, our leaders seem so clueless to these changes on the ground.

I remember reading that Obama met with Yellen before she made her announcement and thinking to myself “how obvious that he is urging Yellen to keep the charade going?”

It was so blatant. So irritating.

This movement will only get stronger as the powers that be begin to screw up more and more (witness the drama teacher and his carbon tax).

You are right. Maybe it does not matter who is elected down south.

MF

#24 mark on 10.11.16 at 7:22 pm

Higher prices will be a bit of a bummer for the new phone every 6 months crowd. I often hear them arguing I’m better off because of globalization due to all the junk being cheaper.

Confusing for those of us who don’t buy junk.

#25 Love My Kia on 10.11.16 at 7:27 pm

I’m liking the change for the better for Maple investments.

It also gives a boost to T2’s leadership, regardless to what really caused the improvements among most people.

#26 Trexx on 10.11.16 at 7:27 pm

The Trumpeter or a manipulative hack.
The Americans have my sympathy.
It’s a no win.
And it will affect us, either way

#27 toronto1 on 10.11.16 at 7:28 pm

I agree with the cost of $ rising, this past ten year era will go down in history of economics as having the absolute lowest cost of money ever.

Regarding Trump, i disagree (as much as I want to agree with you) The US population has a history of electing largely unknown figures to the presidency. Bill Clinton when he was first elected was a little known Governor of a uneventful state. W got elected even though his own party laughed at him when he announced it. Obama, an unknown political nobody who also happened to be black took out heavyweight Hillary Clinton to win the Dems nomination and to serve two terms.

Pundits would have said that all of the above is not possible a year or two before the elections, but they happened. Americans tend to give their politicians a chance.

I believe that Trump has more traction then the polls are letting on, the locker room tapes, the Rep’s throwing in the towel before the debate etc.. seems to coordinated and calculated too me. this is purely speculation but i believe their own internal polling is showing a real possibility of a Trump win.

Trump has tapped into a huge level of discontent within the populace- i fear that a lot of folks will vote for Trump as a protest vote and that may take him into the White House. God help us all

#28 Sammy the Shnooze on 10.11.16 at 7:28 pm

“Middle-class voters on both sides of the Atlantic are angry at the job exodus, outsourcing and the loss of a quality of life they believed was their birthright.” – Garth

————————————————————–

I just can’t understand why people can’t be satisfied with having nothing and starve to death quietly.

#29 CAT LOVER on 10.11.16 at 7:33 pm

#16 the Jaguar on 10.11.16 at 7:01 pm
We live in interesting times. All thanks to the world wide web. The biggest game changer of all times. No wonder the disgruntled masses south of the border find themselves in their current state of affairs – despondent in their choices of a suitable presidential candidate. Or those in any number of third world countries that even at the lowest levels of poverty are able to ‘google’ the riches of other locales, ours included. Good thing that big ocean and legendary snow and cold offers a small discouragement. The Jaguar admits not always liking to share with others,unless they can contribute to the greater improvement of lives overall. Sue me.
With the ‘fix in’ south of the border we can now all strap ourselves into the roller coaster arms of the next adventure awaiting us. It won’t be pretty for some. Flexibility, liquidity, modesty, simplicity will be the elements of protection from past excesses. Beware the ‘natural born killers’ who will show no mercy in their panic to exit the coming storm. When the fecal matter hits the oculating rotator please remind yourselves of your personal responsibility for your current state of affairs.
That’s all ‘the Jaguar’ has to say about such things. Cat-like agility and powers of observation in warp drive.

JAG, YOU SOUND HOT, REAL HOT.
AND NOT JUST UPSTAIRS….

#30 conan on 10.11.16 at 7:34 pm

Markets up = article about market timers and doomers

Markets down= article about Janet’s magic rate hike beans.

You are calling for a 10 % correction now? That is a lot of Janet stories.

#31 Trumpian progress on 10.11.16 at 7:35 pm

The funny thing is that you just described how Trumpian forces will shift the economy to the direction you have been craving for in vain under the Clintonians.

#32 common sense on 10.11.16 at 7:36 pm

Very very simply….income distribution world wide is the problem based on huge changes in technology and what is to come and sadly, I haven’t heard anyone with a clue to face this and deal with it.

Hillary, T2, Donald, EU, China, etc, etc,,,

#33 The real Kip on 10.11.16 at 7:36 pm

Th national debt in the United States rose by $152-billion…last month. Go ahead Janet, raise rates.

When this bubble pops it will end badly.

#34 Dan Tenor on 10.11.16 at 7:40 pm

If Rate reset preferred are such a sure bet, can the allocation go a bit higher than 20%?

#35 inflate - inflate on 10.11.16 at 7:41 pm

Sorry but low interest rates are the only thing keeping this boat afloat… Raise them and you’ll see families collapse,, societies collapse,, nations collapse… This is a whole new world people,,, all this interest rate rising BS seems the focus of many stuck in an old world mind-frame… You stay there and eventually you too will be left behind… Ask yourself if rates did rise what things would work better… NONE… Low rates allow everyone to contribute at working on the economies and at this point,,, today,,, everyone’s assistance participation is helpful…

#36 TS on 10.11.16 at 7:44 pm

Garth is just upset that David Orchard and his followers were proved right

greater-orchard.com

David who? — Garth

#37 Questions on 10.11.16 at 7:46 pm

Great post, glad you’re pounding the drums of reason.

If there’s a precious quarter point from the the US Fed this December, it will be begrudging, everyone yelling at them jump in that cold lake to get it over with, or lose respect.

Aside from this pressure, which is their own fault because they thought it would be cool to step into the limelight and offer forward guidance, there is limited reason to do anything, currently.

Expect a lot of reluctance from them after December. Or even better, a clear message that they will explain their mission succinctly and stop talking for the next couple years. No more dot plots and letting subordinates get in front of a microphone.

Respectfully, I’m more on the side of a cut in Canada… just a quarter point. My feeling is that other policies are being put in place to allow for a cut that intends to spur exports, investments and inflation, but not RE.

#38 birthrights on 10.11.16 at 7:49 pm

The anti-globalism movement is gaining momentum, and will not go away until there are palpable consequences. Middle-class voters on both sides of the Atlantic are angry at the job exodus, outsourcing and the loss of a quality of life they believed was their birthright. The Trumpian objects of this anger are China, Mexicans, multinational CEOs, Wall Streeters, 1%ers, free-trading politicians and immigrant workers, to name a few.

===

OK, jobs, loss of quality of life is not a birthright.

Now, how is it a birthright then for politicians, CEOs to globalize the the economy against the interest of the majority of the population of their country?

Remember, 7 in 1 Americans have less than $1000 savings, Canada probably not much better.

How is it anybody’s birthright to make this happen?

#39 AR on 10.11.16 at 7:53 pm

If you’re fully invested in a model portfolio (5% cash), what do you use when a buying opportunity presents itself? Do you recommend using this money?

#40 mouldyinYVR on 10.11.16 at 7:53 pm

“After all, we don’t care about social justice or systemic equality here. We just wanna be wealthy.”
..you said it ..the commodification of everything…
………. interested in ‘criminally inclined’(?) real estate professionals and their ilk, read on:
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2016/10/11/criminals-target-canada-for-money-laundering.html
“Financial Action Task Force (FATF ) writes, “the legal profession in Canada is especially vulnerable to misuse for money laundering and terrorist financing risks,” due largely to its involvement in such activities as real estate transactions and overseeing trust accounts on behalf of clients.
“In particular, the organization warns, “the major six financial institutions are the main channels targeted by criminals” and “it is suspected that criminally inclined real estate professionals, notably real estate lawyers, are used to facilitate money laundering.”

http://www.fin.gc.ca/pub/mltf-rpcfat/mltf-rpcfat-eng.pdf
Assessment of Inherent Risks of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing in Canada (71 page report)
*Vulnerabilities of the Real Estate Sector – Canada (High):
“The real estate sector is very significant in terms of its size and scope and generates a large number of high-value financial transactions on an ongoing basis. The real estate sector is integrated with a range of other sectors, and the purchase and sale of real estate involves a variety of facilitators, including real estate agents, lawyers, accountants, mortgage providers and appraisers.”

#41 Mr. Frugal on 10.11.16 at 7:56 pm

The Fed was NEVER going to raise rates until after the election. Hillary needs all of the help she can get from her corrupt friends in Washington.

#42 Not a big deal on 10.11.16 at 7:56 pm

Trump 2016 !!

#43 Wicked as it seems on 10.11.16 at 7:57 pm

My initial response was, start getting out of dividend ETFs, also monthly income funds and some gov bond funds going backwards….
Start looking for stuff like comsumer staples, industrials, things that you drop on your toes that will hurt and marijuana stocks of course!

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.16 at 8:00 pm

“the Nobel-winning macroeconomists who live in this blog’s comment section with the Moms……”
********************************************

Classic!

#45 Pooled mortgages on 10.11.16 at 8:01 pm

Pooled mortgages are deadly, you never know if you are 1st, 2nd or 3rd mortgage on the house, sometimes even the downpayment! That is also the order of repayment in case of default with the mention that city tax owed is first in line!
Just google HCG Marc Cohodes and you’ll never asked about pooled mortgages and secondary lenders in Canada! No subprime here? See you in 6 months!

#46 rjrt81 on 10.11.16 at 8:01 pm

#145 rjrt81 on 10.11.16 at 5:48 pm

“ugh. you get worse by the week. your opinions are just that. not facts like you try and pretend. you make my brain hurt.”

-Home owner who depends on “equity” to retire on?
-Real estate agent?

When someone disagrees with a statement (like your comment says), but has zero rebuttal (like your comment), the first thing they do is try to attack character (like your comment). The result is that a worthless pathetic response (like your comment).

MF

-My experience is anytime someone says something that someone else disagree with but have zero response to

——————————————————————–

you sure are incredibly insecure . from your comments i can tell you have an incredibly narrow view of the world and if something doesn’t fit into your scope its wrong. we talked about this before about your idea of what women should act and look like. and the post where everyone laid their finances out for all to see showed you have a very low yearly income and little savings. even though you constantly deride people of our own age anytime you get. which is kinda funny. seeing as you haven’t managed to blow these lazy socialist out of the water with your intelligence and hard work. just sayin.

#47 Nothing Taboo on 10.11.16 at 8:03 pm

America will not elect a woman as President. Trump is in.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.16 at 8:07 pm

Some former Republican supporters that just cant support Trumpian gropers

The Cincinnati Enquirer. which had not endorsed a Democrat for president in nearly a century: “Trump is a clear and present danger to our country…Do we really want someone in charge of our military and nuclear codes who has an impulse control problem? The fact that so many top military and national security officials are not supporting Trump speaks volumes.”
• The Arizona Republic, which had never endorsed a Democrat for president since its founding in 1890: “Trump responds to criticism with the petulance of verbal spit wads. That’s beneath our national dignity. When the president of the United States speaks, the world expects substance. Not a blistering tweet.”
• The Dallas Morning News, which had not endorsed a Democrat for president in more than 75 years: “He plays on fear—exploiting base instincts of xenophobia, racism and misogyny—to bring out the worst in all of us, rather than the best. His serial shifts on fundamental issues reveal an astounding absence of preparedness. And his improvisational insults and midnight tweets exhibit a dangerous lack of judgment and impulse control.”
• The San Diego Union-Tribune, which had not endorsed a Democrat for president in its 148-year history: “Terrible leaders can knock nations off course. Venezuela is falling apart because of the obstinance and delusions of Hugo Chávez and his successor. Argentina is finally coming out of the chaos created by Cristina Kirchner and several of her predecessors. Trump could be our Chávez, our Kirchner. We cannot take that risk.”
• USA Today, which had never endorsed a presidential candidate (and still stopped short of an actual endorsement of Clinton): “[R]esist the siren song of a dangerous demagogue. By all means vote, just not for Donald Trump.”

Meanwhile, Trump has been endorsed by the The New York Observer, owned by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and the National Enquirer, a tabloid run by Trump’s friend David Pecker, and whose content focuses on celebrity scandal, according to the Associated Press.

#49 mouldyinYVR on 10.11.16 at 8:08 pm

Frank Zappa: ‘Government is the Entertainment Division of the Military Industrial Complex’.

#50 Shawn on 10.11.16 at 8:16 pm

I’m not so sure about rising inflation benefiting the TSX over the S&P500 as described. Inflation was much higher during the mid to late 90s, yet the S&P500 and the $US significantly outperformed the TSX and $CAD. I think the next 5-10 years will play out similarly as technology becomes the dominant theme.

#51 For those about to flop... on 10.11.16 at 8:16 pm

#18 Mark on 10.11.16 at 7:02 pm
“Apparently he was waiting to see Mark critique his segment on This week in Money ,but it never materialized.”

Sorry buddy, a few things came up this week and I’ve had very little time. In a nutshell, Ross Kay’s logic is almost irrefutable, and he certainly didn’t mince words. Garth’s claim today that the next BoC move isn’t a rate cut is a perfect Segway to what I was going to say, and that is, with so much net worth chopped out of Canadian households, the BoC may very well be significantly behind the curve at this point in lowering policy rates.. Not a chance of the next BoC move being a hike. They might pause until the CAD$ rises to 1.25 or above (currently $1.32CAD/USD), but with so much demand chopped out of the Canadian economy, the BoC will need to ramp up their deflation-fighting efforts with ZIRP and perhaps even NIRP.

////////////////////////////

Hey Mark, good to see you took my ribbing in good spirit.

You wanna know something….you’re alright for a robot…

M42BC

#52 traderJim on 10.11.16 at 8:18 pm

Trump’s core support are disaffected voters, those who have lost their jobs or have been forced into a lower paying one. Their lives are most definitely not better than they were 8 years ago, or 16 or 24 years ago for that matter. And Hillary offers them nothing (unless you are a coal miner, she gleefully tells them ‘you’re fired!’).

Despite the GOP establishment and virtually all media (including normally pro GOP media outlets and talk show hosts) being against Trump, he’s doing remarkably well in the polls.

So unless the US economy really is a much bigger disaster than we in the GWN realize Hillary will almost certainly win, even if she doesn’t have much of a popular vote advantage. The electoral college is very much in her favour.

Initial kneejerk reaction will be stock market rally. Yawn.

But Hillary is beholden to the usual suspects, the 1%, and so she will not do a thing to help the deplorables and the disaffected.

After 4 years in office, Hillary will be dumped unceremoniously and we’ll get to relive this whole scenario again. Trump will be too old, but maybe then we see a real strongman running? Someone truly scary and authoritarian. Or maybe wimpy but safe and nice guy Rubio? we’ll see. Stocking up on microwave popcorn for 2020.

#53 Mr. Frugal on 10.11.16 at 8:20 pm

#31 Trumpian progress on 10.11.16 at 7:35 pm
The funny thing is that you just described how Trumpian forces will shift the economy to the direction you have been craving for in vain under the Clintonians.

___________________________

I suspect that Garth is really a closet Trumpian.

#54 Debtslavecreator on 10.11.16 at 8:24 pm

It will be Clinton and if not her then Russia will be blamed and Joe Biden will take over. Either way no Trump

Rates on mortgages will rise steadily even if the BofC drops once more as the economy stalls out

All inputs in the cost of funds are pointing up at once over the next few years

A 4 % handle on the best 5 year fixed is a near certainty by spring 2018

Wild Bill is partly responsible for the higher costs as will slowly growing loan losses and higher capital requirements

Oh those poor moisters who thought “they” would never allow rates to go up

A lot of soiled underwears to be washed in Canadstan soon once reality settles in
So sad too bad idiots

#55 Context on 10.11.16 at 8:30 pm

#17 Chittingham: There are no tax breaks and the administration fees will eat you alive as its tantamount to a mutual fund.

#56 acdel on 10.11.16 at 8:32 pm

#13 Karma
Howard Marks is a great writer who makes things easy to digest. And he’s very rich and successful. Read his most recent memo:

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
——————————————————

Excellent, well written article, thanks for the link.

#57 Soviet Capitalist on 10.11.16 at 8:32 pm

There’s a weird feeling reading about Poloz telling businesses to ‘Cheer up’. Sounds like he’s about to make a big mistake and lower the rates in October.

Who would like to rename the loonie to ‘Canadian Peso’?

#58 Brian Ripley on 10.11.16 at 8:36 pm

I have updated my housing starts charts to Sept 30th:

http://www.chpc.biz/housing-starts.html

​Toronto -30% Y/Y
Montreal -48% Y/Y
Vancouver +49% Y/Y
Calgary -31% Y/Y​

Canada -20% Y/Y
ON -20% Y/Y
QC -37% Y/Y
BC +33% Y/Y
AB -28% Y/Y

Starts are all up M/M for the above except for Toronto and Ontario…. but as you can see the Y/Y numbers are all down except for Vancouver and BC.

… and absorption rates in Vancouver are plunging while the opposite in Toronto. Quite the divergence:

http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html

The seasonal shift is on. We probably won’t be able to see if it turns into more than this until 1st or 2nd Quarter 2017.

#59 Smoking Man on 10.11.16 at 8:37 pm

Garth,

You’re missing the key driver to Trumpianism.

It’s the political correctness being shoved down everyone’s throat, the constant harassment on free speech. The shutting down of debate, the science is settled. The lefties are trapped in a false narrative and must abide by every single talking point. MSM enforcing it.

Their leaders are thieving liars and bastards, the left wing goslings who worship their teacher talking rulers are just about as smart as a piece of wood floating in a sewage treatment pool while thinking they’ve made it to mecca.

They pretend to be nice, They pretend to be inclusive, They pretend to be diverse. They pretend the other are the bullies.

Look how the left on reddit attacked Rob Ford the day of his funeral. Fricken Animals.

#60 So Sad on 10.11.16 at 8:41 pm

I’m so depressed that there seems to be no foreign real estate tax coming for Ontario. Not that I believe that foreigners are the real problem, but I thought it might scare all the debt hogs away and thus change the house lust running wild in Toronto. We make great money, have lots saved and invested but still can’t reasonably afford a house. When oh when, will this ridiculous bubble burst?

#61 Wrk.dover on 10.11.16 at 8:43 pm

I did not get a degree in macro economics at Keynes U., so I don’t understand the problem that would replace the extant problems, if a country decided to be the one in the world with marginally higher rates than those of the herd, rather than racing to be at the bottom by choice.

Exports would become too expensive is all I ever hear, while imports being too expensive otherwise, never gets discussion.

If the brain surgeons that brought us this eight year freak show in response to Leeman can’t come up with a plan B attempt by now, impatience is justified.

I see a pretty big shift in the Ring Master’s post tonight, all of the ignorance he is exposed to in his pet comment section is giving him a pretty clear insight to what the Davos crew will never know about in all of their wisdom.

Something something Madame LaFarge knits while sitting in her rocking chair.

#62 Andrew Woburn on 10.11.16 at 8:43 pm

“Gold is not insurance against disaster! Gold is not a haven against bad times!

Those are the findings of a new study by Harvard economists Robert Barro and Sanjay Misra. Their paper, which appeared in the August issue of the Royal Economic Society’s Economic Journal, scrutinizes one of the most popular reasons for investing in gold: the notion that precious metals can buffer your portfolio from economic downturns. That is just not the case, according to the economists—or, at least, it’s not the case consistently enough to make gold a dependable cushion against calamity.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/gold-a-bad-hedge-against-bad-markets/article32072754/

#63 Smoking Man on 10.11.16 at 8:53 pm

Mabey I’m being a bit hard on the loony left, I’m outside hitting a shot of wild turkey bourbon it hits me like a cruise missile, I finally see why men are going out of their way to sound and behave like soft kittens.

They don’t know their getting gamed because they’ve never gamed anyone.

They don’t recognise it. The typical loony lefty probably spent a shit load time in school, being taught lessons by Marxist unionists, who never had tp hassle loot to put food on the table. There lively hoods have come from handouts.

We have an entire new generation that if some unthinkable catastrophic event happened they would just shrivel up and die.

No deductive reasoning skills, no critical thinking skills. no hope.

Completely dependent on the state.

#64 Andrew Woburn on 10.11.16 at 8:55 pm

“The quiet story of trailer parks over the last two decades is their reinvention as “mobile home communities” by investors who saw a lucrative opportunity in providing housing to low-income Americans.

The billionaire investor and real estate mogul Sam Zell recently said of his investment fund that owns mobile home communities—some of which advertise amenities like pools and tennis clubs—that he doesn’t “know of any stock or property I’m involved in that has a better prospect.”

Trailer parks’ appeal to these investors is simple. Millions of Americans struggle with rent payments, but still want a lawn. For them, mobile homes are the cheapest form of housing available. At the same time, it’s rare for someone to build a new mobile home park, because no homeowner wants a trailer park nearby. An industry with healthy demand but a fixed supply attracts the country’s capitalists.”

https://priceonomics.com/in-defense-of-mobile-homes/

#65 Barb on 10.11.16 at 8:56 pm

“the next ate move…”

Should that be “axe” move?

You’re welcome, ha.ha.

#66 Barb on 10.11.16 at 9:00 pm

So I suppose it’s good that negotiations to renew the Columbia River Treaty are beginning now in Wenatchee, WA?

Hope they conclude before the election…might be a nightmare otherwise?

We Canadians generally don’t fare well when our lawyers are sitting across from American lawyers (thinking of the countervailing duties on softwood lumber exports to the U.S., as an example).

#67 TurnerNation on 10.11.16 at 9:00 pm

Trumpian, son, come close I have something important to tell you. A bit closer.
No closer still. There.
Whack!
See, you just learned this world is run using trickery and violence.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.16 at 9:02 pm

@#34 birthrights
“Remember, 7 in 1 Americans have less than $1000 savings, Canada probably not much better…..”
******************************************

AHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA
Really?
People are too stupid to know how to save a buck and thats the rich are to blame for that?
Globalism is to blame for people that spend their last 10 dollars on a pack of smokes and then borrow money to buy a lotto ticket?
Have you learned NOTHING on this sight?

No.

People dont have money because they are…….

Greaterfools borrowing today to finance a newer TV when the other one is perfectly fine.
Greater FOOLS leasing a new car because it makes then “feel good”.
Greater FOOLS borrowing money to go on vacation.

People dont have money saved because loans are too easy to get and they’re financially stupid.

No rich 1% stepping on them. No globalism . No immigrants stealing their jobs…..
Just their own financial stupidity.

#69 Cory on 10.11.16 at 9:02 pm

I think preferred’s are preferable. I’ve been buying since January and am at a little higher (25% of portfolio) now than you recommend Garth but I think they’re a great buy and have been all year. I noticed dividend distributions went up a little last month instead of down like they have been for a long time now.

I keep hearing about a correction and “fear” in the markets. I would have to disagree and is why I am invested fully at this point as I see zero indications of irrational exuberance which, in itself, should be a glaring statement to buy.

My insurer equity is definitely showing signs of life as well so it appears as though positioning is occurring for the anticipated rate increase. It was never an issue to watch it languish since the dividends kept on increasing and coming every 1/4.

Great time to be in the markets.

#70 Scott in Gibsons on 10.11.16 at 9:09 pm

You’re on the wrong side of history Garth. You’re a sheltered insider who thinks in pre-internet terms. The criminal institutions of the corrupt elites have been laid bare and the little people are slowly realizing how things really work. They don’t trust your class any more and are desperate for real change. This is why we have JT, Brexit, Sanders and Trump. Get used to it and pray that the revolution is allowed to happen through the ballot box.

Are you one of those scary clowns? — Garth

#71 not 1st on 10.11.16 at 9:14 pm

Funny how politicians fail to act until the anger is palatable or the people try to elect a psychopath, then our little voice is heard.

I always count on the politicians to be behind the curve.

#72 will on 10.11.16 at 9:18 pm

#14 Pepito

I agree. Interest rates ain’t going up.

#73 Mark on 10.11.16 at 9:19 pm

“Sorry but low interest rates are the only thing keeping this boat afloat… Raise them and you’ll see families collapse,, societies collapse,, nations collapse… “

Remember, there’s always 2 sides to interest rates. The lenders and the borrowers. The lenders tend to be the producers. The borrowers, well, are borrowers usually for a reason. Interest rates rising don’t portend economic collapse, but rather, imply that value will shift from certain entities in the economy to others.

#74 not 1st on 10.11.16 at 9:20 pm

That macro-economist remark was ill conceived.

Remember, some genius macro economist dreamt up the idea of free flow of goods and services between nations without knowing it would cause massive off shoring, outsourcing, gangs of wandering immigrants and importing of foreign workers to take the remaining jobs.

Then they stand there not being able to understand the rise of someone like trump. How could anyone possible be against our well thought out economic theory? These guys have no clue.

#75 The American on 10.11.16 at 9:23 pm

At #4: Pathcontrolmonk, you clearly have no idea how the election process works in the U.S. If Trump drops out, Pence is NOT automatically the nominee. The ballets have been cast. If Trump drops out, Hillary wins by default. Once a nomination is confirmed, such is the case with Trump, it is in it to win it or bust. No other way around it. No give backs. No do-overs.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.16 at 9:26 pm

@#70 Scott in Gibsons.

Wow !
When did Gibsons switch the water treatment from chlorine to paranoia inducing LSD?

#77 Smoking Man on 10.11.16 at 9:26 pm

#61 Wrk.dover on 10.11.16 at 8:43 pm
I see a pretty big shift in the Ring Master’s post tonight, all of the ignorance he is exposed to in his pet comment section is giving him a pretty clear insight to what the Davos crew will never know about in all of their wisdom..
………………………….

Got to tell you something, before I remember someone’s name, I got hear it like 20 times and see the face before it sticks.

But key things, Important things I remember forever. Your “Devos Crew” took me back to last year. The CEO of RBC sorry forgot his name said on a LinkedIn rant.

“The talk, the fear, the loathing of Trump at Devous was in the air and on everyone’s minds. ”

It went something like that. But trump had 17 republicans to slay at that moment in time.
To be at the next Devous my god. That would awesome. Billionaires and there suck up lap dogs shitting their pants.

Now only one head left to chop. The highlander movie comes to mind.

Conner McTrump. There can be only one.

#78 The American on 10.11.16 at 9:36 pm

At #47: Nothing Taboo, you win the award for the dumbest comment of the evening (so far). Americans won’t elect a woman President? That’s laughable, considering we’ve elected a black President TWICE and he won also the popular vote. Think Americans are racist or sexist? Not nearly as much as Canadians like to think. You little guys sure do love to cling to antiquated, ignorant, and comical notions of the American populous, don’t you? :-) Watch and wait. Hillary is going to win by a landslide. Latest polls show her 52% vs Trump at only 38%. 10% margin. And she continues to gain. Hillary will indeed be our President, by way of both the popular vote AND the Delegates (BTW, that’s what matters in an American election).

#79 Bram on 10.11.16 at 9:37 pm

#18 Mark

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/segue

#80 bsallergy on 10.11.16 at 9:41 pm

Yippee! Another buying opportunity coming up!

#81 Syd Cixel on 10.11.16 at 9:46 pm

“Middle-class voters on both sides of the Atlantic are angry at the job exodus, outsourcing and the loss of a quality of life they believed was their birthright.”

Not quite. The middle class is disappointed not because they expected these benefits to be “their birthright.” Instead, economic advancement and income growth were repeatedly promised by the proponents of free trade, but those benefits simply did not materialize. The middle class is waking up and realizing that they were deceived.

#82 MF on 10.11.16 at 9:49 pm

#46 rjrt81 on 10.11.16 at 8:01 pm

More insults.

Low intelligence. Low savings. Lazy. Insecure.

The weird thing is you actually remember what i posted here months ago. Weird. I actually posted the truth and was exactly where i should be for my age and marital status based on what i saw.

So..back to you. Do you secretly enjoy my posts? Do you secretly admire my intelligence? My work ethic? Age/marital status? That’s usually where insults originate from deep down inside.

Besides, i secretly admire the fact you have an income of 800k/year and are worth millions. That is what you posted right? Your a real rock star.

MF

#83 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.11.16 at 9:51 pm

Canadian housing starts surged in September compared with August, surpassing market expectations, data from the national housing agency showed on Tuesday

Developers just wanna take advantage of rising prices. Especially Toronto. So far Toronto real estate has been easy money.

#84 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.11.16 at 9:55 pm

For some of the youngest members of the US, it will be their first white President

#85 Mark on 10.11.16 at 9:55 pm

“If you’re fully invested in a model portfolio (5% cash), what do you use when a buying opportunity presents itself? Do you recommend using this money?”

The theory of asset allocation and methodical rebalancing is that cash is one of those components that you rebalance.

So say that you have a 5% cash allocation and the market crashes by 50%. So your formerly 5% cash allocation would be a 10% allocation at that point. So you would rebalance by taking half your cash and putting it into the other 90% of the portfolio (formerly 95%). And so on and so forth.

Likewise, if stocks do very well for a period of time, your cash balance might need to be topped up. So you could do that with dividends.

#86 Yuus bin Haad on 10.11.16 at 9:58 pm

Did I hear “free sprinkles”?

#87 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.11.16 at 10:00 pm

#34 birthrights
Remember, 7 in 1 Americans have less than $1000 savings, Canada probably not much better…”

Average Canadian has $35,000+ in emergency funds.

https://newsroom.bmo.com/press-releases/bmo-rainy-day-survey-canadians-average-35237-in-tsx-bmo-201409080966606001

Media likes to focus on the bottom 8% cuz less than $1000 in savings is more sensational and draws eyeballs and advertising dollars

#88 Smoking Man on 10.11.16 at 10:02 pm

After Trump wins, every university with big bank funding will be starting up Herdonomics classes.

They won’t hire me. The aroma of Bourbon where a missed placed match light, a good teacher trying to sneak a smoke in the restroom a 100 yards away will take the building down.

Ok Students. Need you to go door to door, sell something to the herd that they don’t want. And sell allot.

Come back my lovely nice students, and let us debrief you. No way Smokey gets an endorsment. That heathen slime sucking piece of shit, challenging our entitled way of life. Kill the bastard.

#89 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.11.16 at 10:02 pm

Ross Kay is alright

His results haven’t been as good as his logic tho

Just sayin

#90 M on 10.11.16 at 10:02 pm

US economy is toast..jobs vs part time jobs.
Fed will NOT rise interest rates. It would pop their only asset that works (on loaned $ and will blow anyway) i.e. the Big Grand Casino.
US $ index can’t go much higher than 96-97…more than that and Pa-Da-Boom.

..enjoy the unraveling. Short the crap out of it.

#91 Context on 10.11.16 at 10:04 pm

#59 Smoking Man: – Trump is live in Panama City making a speech and it was powerful when he has freedom of speech. He has added new skin in the game but not so during a controlled debate.

#92 For those about to flop... on 10.11.16 at 10:08 pm

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.16 at 9:26 pm
@#70 Scott in Gibsons.

Wow !
When did Gibsons switch the water treatment from chlorine to paranoia inducing LSD?

//////////////////////

I heard they were getting their water trucked in from Flint, Michigan…

M42BC

#93 Cashed out YVR Feb '16 on 10.11.16 at 10:09 pm

“There is no US recession on the horizon”

Huh?

US Labor force participation at all time lows
Record number of adults living in parents homes
Record number of EBT cards issued
Record debt in US at all levels
Impending illiquidity of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security
Pension funds growing more underfunded by the day, many cutting benefits
So many small companies can’t make it any more that the Wiltshire 5000 index has dropped to 3000 companies

If I wasn’t sure I had searched for this blog I might think I am on a MSM website.

You sound like my friends when I sold “you don’t want to sell ‘cos you will be priced out” and my Golfing buddy from BC assessment “you don’t want to step out of the market now”

All of them horribly wrong. Presumably they read too much MSM

Garth, please indicate what will turn this ocean liner sailing straight to NIRP around.

Please provide more evidence that the US economy isn’t already in recession aside from MSM propaganda and the propped up value of the stock market.

#94 Metaxa on 10.11.16 at 10:21 pm

@ #64 Andrew Woburn
“The quiet story of trailer parks over the last two decades is their reinvention as “mobile home communities” by investors who saw a lucrative opportunity in providing housing to low-income Americans.

Never ever underestimate the spending power of the low and lower middle class, eh?

I left the higher end restaurant scene and went into the local cafe, diner, joint and never looked back.
You make a lot more money selling chips and gravy than you do foo foo sauce over a confit de canard.

Come to think about it most of the business plans I’ve helped folks out with and the majority of the folks I’ve partnered up with to help them get something going have been from the bottom 50% of the income spread.

There is a reason there is so much opportunity down there…the poor (poorer?) have to spend their money to keep going…the rich like to stack it up barring wearing it as jewelry or driving it…the poor can’t afford to sit on it and watch it grow, they need to spend it.

You want to goose your local economy? Put more money into the working class somehow. They strive man, they really do.

#95 Victor V on 10.11.16 at 10:21 pm

The Bank of Japan’s shift to controlling bond yields is driving up mortgage rates, prompting Deutsche Bank AG to predict Tokyo apartment prices may fall 20 percent or more by 2018: http://bloom.bg/2dtNt3o

#96 Trojan House on 10.11.16 at 10:25 pm

Funny, while everyone focuses on Trump’s great wall of Mexico, nobody seems to be talking about the great wall of NATO being built up along Russia’s borders. The West has slowly been preparing for war with Russia.

Listen to all the Russian rhetoric and propaganda being spewed by the West, none more so than during the US election with the Russians hacking and spying on everyone. Clinton deletes her emails? Must be the Russians. Fixing the Democratic primaries? Oh, the Russians leaked that. Trump leading in the polls? Oh, those Russians are trying to influence the elections.

There is a new “Cold War” and it’s makes the old Cold War look like a melting ice tray.

#97 The Donald on 10.11.16 at 10:26 pm

Fine, no more talking about Trump… How about if we switch the focus to Hillary’s cheating on the first debate?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEvQZuo1VMo

#98 Nick on 10.11.16 at 10:27 pm

I don’t believe mainstream media. Most of the polls are extremely bias. One just has to look at how wrong they’ve been the last few elections to determine this.

The least bias poll was off last time/election by only 1.5%. The same poll this time has Trump leading Hillary by 2.7%…up since the last debate.

Trump will win…only because Clinton is not only horrible but also very corrupt. Clinton knows this and insiders within the campaign have leaked that there is panic within.

Prepare for a Trump victory.

#99 Smoking Man on 10.11.16 at 10:31 pm

#91 Context on 10.11.16 at 10:04 pm
#59 Smoking Man: – Trump is live in Panama City making a speech and it was powerful when he has freedom of speech. He has added new skin in the game but not so during a controlled debate.

On the payroll, Jumped the shark for the highest bidder. Delivering pizzas when plan A don’t work out in the history files.

CNN will be in long branch soon. My wife will say, he’s in a hospital , had the stroke. Going for sympathy plan c, it knocks the knees out of lefties.

#100 Context on 10.11.16 at 10:39 pm

#75 The American:- Under rule 9 the GOP can appoint who they see fit to replace the presidential nominee to continue the election for President to run against Hillary.

#101 Harbour on 10.11.16 at 10:44 pm

I remember reading no way Trudeau too

#102 Not a big deal on 10.11.16 at 10:48 pm

DELETED

#103 fools fartz lesson on 10.11.16 at 10:49 pm

68 crowdedelevatorfartz

People are too stupid to know how to save a buck and thats the rich are to blame for that?

Globalism is to blame for people that spend their last 10 dollars on a pack of smokes and then borrow money to buy a lotto ticket?
Have you learned NOTHING on this sight?

No.

People dont have money because they are…….

Greaterfools borrowing today to finance a newer TV when the other one is perfectly fine.
Greater FOOLS leasing a new car because it makes then “feel good”.
Greater FOOLS borrowing money to go on vacation.

People dont have money saved because loans are too easy to get and they’re financially stupid.

No rich 1% stepping on them. No globalism . No immigrants stealing their jobs…..
Just their own financial stupidity.

===

And you probably think Buffett is billionaire because he lives in the same house for decades, pays less tax than his secretary, drives a 10 years old Toyota, flies economy, never takes a vacation, uses rotary phone and picked up his tv set at the Salvation Army.

You would probably also lecture slaves that they should have run faster while they were sill free, native Americans that they should have spent more time and effort to invent gun powder before Columbus showed up and Jews that they really should not have waited that long.

All those fools, eh?

#104 Dodgedbullet on 10.11.16 at 10:54 pm

And you decided to roll on with the comments, Garth… you have a wonderful sense of humor.

#105 Ghost of nikola on 10.11.16 at 10:58 pm

#88 Smoking Man on 10.11.16 at 10:02 pm
After Trump wins, every university with big bank funding will be starting up Herdonomics classes.

They won’t hire me. The aroma of Bourbon where a missed placed match light, a good teacher trying to sneak a smoke in the restroom a 100 yards away will take the building down.

Ok Students. Need you to go door to door, sell something to the herd that they don’t want. And sell allot.

Come back my lovely nice students, and let us debrief you. No way Smokey gets an endorsment. That heathen slime sucking piece of shit, challenging our entitled way of life. Kill the bastard.

So much for the codes deleting the daily verbal garbage. The blog is really going down the sewer of late. a trumpian inspired sewer with a side order of fordnation Bet the farm smoking jimmy boy. All in.

#106 Smoking Man on 10.11.16 at 10:58 pm

on the buds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UXircX3VdM

#107 WUL on 10.11.16 at 11:10 pm

The next 4 weeks will be quite interesting on the U.S. political scene. Not the Pres stuff. Hillary is home and cooled out in the stable while Trumpy labours up the homestretch. Trump’s toxicity will now affect the House and Senate. Not cool to be a Repug now.

#108 Smoking Man on 10.11.16 at 11:14 pm

To smoking men worldwide

Unforgiven

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-HiAEXQP38

#109 fleabitten monkey on 10.11.16 at 11:23 pm

#87 Walmark of Sadkatoon/#34 Birthrights –
Ehmmm….did you read the fact that 52% of Canadians (the majority) have less that $10,000? …. and 41% have less than $5,000???? That is frightening and yeah, lets face it a poor reflection for a nation with 70% home ownership and nearly 170% debt to income ratio….holy crap….thats is a “wall of worry” if I were an economist.

#110 greyswan on 10.11.16 at 11:39 pm

I am tired of the politically correct crowd in Ottawa…like on CBC today.
One is the Minister for the status of woman telling
Canadian we need to make it a crime to talk about women
in a negative way!!
I want the same protection as the first amendment has in
the USA…..we do not have free speech now!!

#111 jane24 on 10.11.16 at 11:49 pm

I have worked in elections as a volunteer all my life and the winner is always the side who gets their vote out. You can claim in a poll who you support but unless you get off the sofa and actually vote, your opinion counts for nothing.

I have also learned that satisfied people do not get off the sofa. Angry people get off the sofa.

In the USA election, Hillary’s support is lukewarm, Trumps is red hot. Trump supporters will vote, Hillary’s may decide to go to the mall.

If you allow for likely voter turnout the polls really are too close to call.

#112 willworkforpickles on 10.11.16 at 11:50 pm

As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths.
Isaiah 3:12

#113 Victor V on 10.11.16 at 11:53 pm

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting could illuminate the degree of pressure Chair Janet Yellen faced from officials eager to raise interest rates, insights that could help guide expectations on the likelihood of a hike by year end.

The record of the meeting, during which policy makers left the federal funds rate in a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, is scheduled to be released at 2 p.m. Wednesday in Washington. In a speech on Sunday, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer called the decision a “close call.”

More: http://bloom.bg/2dINxxY

#114 peter pan on 10.12.16 at 12:09 am

#21 Trumpian on 10.11.16 at 7:11 pm
@TurnerNation

Are you claiming that the Paris terrorist attacks were part of a plan to to pass a climate change bill?


the only ‘attacks’ were on your intelligence, wallet, and whats left of your civil liberties

#115 stage1dave on 10.12.16 at 12:15 am

#64; Mr. Woborn; that’s a great link to the Mobile Home stuff…not something I ever really considered, but my dad liked his for a decade…taxes were $180/year, and steps to the lake.

#68 CEF; I have this convo with in-laws once a month! It’s a choice to save/invest whatever portion of yer income, in whatever frequency; and I sometimes think it’s just not something they’re willing to focus on…I didn’t for many years.

#116 Hammer Time on 10.12.16 at 12:21 am

#5 PP Re 6% ZPR return over 3 years. You should be delighted that you made money and preserved capital over 3 years even though it is a pitiful return. This is an historic time in the preferred share market. Never in the past 500 years have we seen government manipulations of global interest markets to zero. If it can’t go any lower, then this would be a good time to redouble your efforts to buy more because they’ve squeezed the volatility out, for better or worse.

Garth , you keep touting ‘ globalization’ . Why is it any benefit to western taxpayers to give our jobs and tax dollars to undeveloped countries? I know all the liberal global village arguments but where in economics does it say we should beggar ourselves for the supposed altruistic benefit of others? Isn’t that venturing into the realm of religion? Go Trump and all sensible western taxpayers.

#15 long time lurk – we do have long standing policies of NINJA loans in the HAM and HAM Light communities. Evidence the banks were granting Nina loans to one specific ethnic group was a column on this pathetic blog.

#117 Questions on 10.12.16 at 12:27 am

Statisticians, poll service providers and bookies are gonna be studying this one for decades….

My guess:
– a good chunk of people living on the coastal blue states who were too wimpy to speak up at dinner about how they are down for the donald… and a larger than expected number who will feel empowered to “screw the system”

– a much larger number of women, who might live in a house of Trump, live in a Trump hood, but will vote Hillary… ’cause… c’mon…

– a surprising number of 3rd party. Jill Stein, Deez Nuts, it’s your world, have at it. Murica could use more of this. GOP has been too lame for too long.

#118 Martin Lazi on 10.12.16 at 12:37 am

Trump will win. Hence, you love him. Just accespet it for HEK SAKES

#119 Bob dog on 10.12.16 at 1:17 am

As a Canadian who has lived in the us through 2 George bush wins, I can assure you the election will be close. Trump may win. I know directors at Microsoft who don’t even watch the news. They vote republican. The end. 90% of Americans are rightly pissed. I’m half wanting trump to win if he actually did some of the things he says he will do. Problem is he is just the next generation of infiltration terminator sent by the globalized corporate sky net to further enslave the many in order to benefit the few.

#120 rjrt81 on 10.12.16 at 2:02 am

#82 MF on 10.11.16 at 9:49 pm

not sure how pointing out things you’ve said repeatedly here is an insult. but whatever. your prerogative. i wish i was a rock star. way more babes. but alas, just a lowly tradesman. but just smart enough to work at a monopolized utility. just cause i twist wrenches doesn’t mean i’m dumb. i know where the pot at the end of the rainbow is. lets talk about this nauseating “PC” culture. generally the only people i hear complaining about this are white middle aged men. not always. but enough to say its a trend. cultural barbaric hotline anyone?. i guess the “PC” crowd just got tired of the a**hole crowd and decided to find their voice. its all good. we have thick skin. ps. markel is considered a right wing politician in germany. no liberal. not left. at least thats what my friends who live there told me. one being a scary scary feminist university professor. sends shivers up my spine just saying the words. must be hard out there for an mf.

#121 #22 Rexx Rock - I am in Italy on 10.12.16 at 2:16 am

December 4 has nothing to do with Italy leaving the EU. In our own words:

“I cittadini italiani, quindi, tra poco più di 2 mesi, voteranno se modificare la Costituzione e così ridimensionare le funzioni del Senato.”

Means we are voting to amend the constitution on Senate reforms – to limit the Senate’s powers. Legislation, practically speaking, goes from the Senate to the Chamber of Deputies and back. Too often, it takes a long time to approve and thus/often making the legislation useless.

Nothing in here about leaving the EU.

Wikipedia has a reasonable explanation about this, search for: Italian constitutional referendum, 2016.

For the record, TV debate a week or so ago with Renzi for YES, 67% of viewers backed him.

bsant

#122 Goldie on 10.12.16 at 2:40 am

#96

Do you know any Russians or do you understand Russian language? I do. Allow me to say this:
The amount of anti-Russian propaganda in the States (spewed by Obama, Biden, and Clinton) right now pales in comparison to the anti-western propaganda in Russia at this time by orders of magnitude. It’s a constant anti-western hatefest over there these days, right down to the level of primary schools. It’s scary stuff man.

#123 Setting the Record Straight on 10.12.16 at 2:45 am

Friedman pointed out many years ago that a welfare state and open borders are incompatible. Why do immigrants come? Because that’s where the money is.
In an era of robotics and globalization, what could be more valuable to an economy than larger masses of poorly educated workers

Clinton’s speeches to the giant squid have been hacked and put on line. Among the highlights is her dream of open borders in the Western Hemisphere.

To my dismay, I believe Clinton will be elected. She and her cronies are resoonsible for hundreds of thousands dying and millions displaced in Syria, Libya, and the Ukraine. She may possibly take the West into a War with the Russian federation.

If we are fortunate and avoid a global conflict her continuation of the de facto open borders policy of Clinton 1, Bush, and Obama will result in an electoral alliance of a lumpen proletariat dependent on the state, with a corrupt business class dependent on the state leaving no opportunity for electoral success by any opposition movement.

Someone said war is the health of the state. So is multiculturalism.

#124 #59 Smoking Man/Garth...Symptoms of the Disease on 10.12.16 at 3:01 am

You describe symptoms of the disease.

The masses are not being listened to and many methods are used to “put them down”. They lash out at anything nowadays, just to be heard.

DISEASE: Uneven Globalization of Wealth.

Large blue collar job losses in the West.

Very few rich and that keep getting richer at the expense of the middle class and poor. Recall, money a finite resource in theory.

Much RESENTMENT over this.

More when Zombie financial institutions bailed out during 2009 with taxpayer money. These incompetent Zombie financial institutions will bring about another 2009.

Middle class and poor had no voice.

Tried 99%. Tried Tea Party etc. Those hijacked by left or right fringe movements and their own social, political, religious IQ of a moron ideas.

In Canada since then, masses trying to get rich themselves or give the illusion of this by RE speculation and/or insane levels of borrowing at low rates – now unraveling.

T2’s victory was a populist “tax the rich” movement.

Now, enter populists like Boris Johnson and Trump – more destructive than the benign T2.

Not until Uneven Globalization of Wealth is addressed globally, you will end up with MANY MORE POPULIST movements.

This issue will continue to DESTABILIZE Government and the Financial sector.

Garth and Smoking Man, expect more lunatic populists, growing ever more dangerous as time marches on.

bsant

#125 AfterTheHouseSold on 10.12.16 at 7:51 am

Meanwhile, back in Ontario, the auto negotiations carry on. Two down, one to go.
FCA to spend $325 million on the Brampton paint shop, not the $800 million needed for a state-of-the-art shop.

“To me, this looks like something that is not necessarily an expenditure that guarantees the future of Brampton but just pushes it back a small number of years, … ”
“Brampton’s days are limited unless it can secure a new product, … ”

“Meanwhile, GM’s plan for Oshawa … will only extend the life of that plant until 2020 … ”

http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/unifor-has-secured-900m-in-auto-industry-investment-but-analysts-question-whether-it-will-turn-the-tide

#126 Zen Headspace on 10.12.16 at 7:52 am

“Widespread economic dislocation can cause voters to choose the wrong leaders.”

-Memos from Howard Marks

#127 the Jaguar on 10.12.16 at 8:00 am

@29 JAG, YOU SOUND HOT, REAL HOT.
AND NOT JUST UPSTAIRS…

It’s true. I cannot deny it.

#128 DoomandGloomer on 10.12.16 at 8:14 am

The “middle class” was simply a recent blip on the economic screen.

It was an anomaly. An aberration. A temporary windfall.

Circumstances in the early part of the 20th century created an economic climate that fostered the evolution of events that resulted in very average people being able to afford above average things, like homes, cars, appliances, and education. To keep the illusion going longer than it naturally should have, we invented consumer credit.

These circumstances are in the latter cycle of disappearing, and along with them, the phenomenon we’ve come to know as “the middle class”.

It will soon disappear altogether. We will revert to the economic dichotomy that has endured for centuries – that of the Rich and the Poor.

The vast majority will be poor, and subsequently beholden to the rich. That’s how the world operates. We will be back to that situation in a large way within the next twenty years. The dream is over.

Prepare for a life of servitude.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.12.16 at 8:30 am

@#102 fools fartz
“All those fools, eh?”
********************************************

Well.
Judging by your well reasoned, eloquent diatribe ( that means arguement NOT another aboriginal nation) you never finished junior high school
Pity.
You night have learned somthing in Math class( how to add , subtract and the intricate complexities of balancing a bank account).
Or English class( Rambling , disjointed arguements may indicate intelligence in the union meetings of a govt employee bullying study session. But here? Not so much.)
Or History class ( Buffett started with almost nothing, worked his ass off, noticed opportunities and took a chance with his own , hard earned money… Oh, and he drives a 10 year old Chevrolet, not a Toyota)
As for slavery, guns, whatever.
More meaningless drivel sprewed forth by a pointy headed, petulant, penniless(?) purveyor of pointless positions( thats an insult in case you were scratching your head and here’s another).
Stick to cigarettes and lotto tickets.
It seems to be your forte eh.

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.12.16 at 8:42 am

@#121 Goldie
“It’s a constant anti-western hatefest over there these days, right down to the level of primary schools”
********************************************

Well the western economic sanctions dont help the average russian to love us…..
Nor does Putins harrassment of critical media, silencing of political opposition, and installing cronies in positions of power.
Hopefully, as their economy grinds down even further from sanctions and Putin’s unbelievable wealth becomes more widely known by his fawning populace the pitchforks will come out.
He looks tired and has commented recently that he doesnt want to “lead indefinitely”.
One can only hope that when he takes his estimated 6 billion dollars and tries to flee the people stick his head on a pike outside the Kremlin gates.
Oh. I also read the other day he wants to get rid of the FSB and bring back the KGB…..
……ahhhhhh the good old days when you could earn yourself a free, all expenses paid trip to Siberia for critisizing the govt………

#131 Im Not A Clown on 10.12.16 at 9:10 am

Hey Garth.

Im the type that always thinks, who cares what others think or say. End of the day who cares. Keep blogging what you do, great work!

The only people that complain are people that will be affected when the real estate market changes for the worse, and who knows what else.

I have friends that work in contracting and make huge amounts of cash (general labourer that is). I keep telling them save your money as being paid those HIGH hourly wages won’t last forever.

On another note my wife wants to move but I keep telling her bad time to do that. I think itll be good idea for us to move into something smaller so our losses are reduced. But who knows how the market will be next summer. We own our house outright.

I was in the fiasco on 2008 and lost roughly 700k in investments due to my previous investor placing part of my cash in real estate. I sued them but didn’t get everything back of course. I was set for medium risk and the positions classified as high risk. His firm also went under. There’s a time for real estate and that time is definitely not now.

Im waiting to hear back how my new broker pans out. (my book keeper is doing his thing) If his returns are shameful I will hit you up.

#132 The Nature Boy on 10.12.16 at 9:32 am

#123 #59 Smoking Man/Garth…Symptoms of the Disease on 10.12.16 at 3:01 am wrote:

“T2’s victory was a populist “tax the rich” movement.”

Stupid Canadian voters. Tax the rich until they all leave Canadastan. Who will you tax next??? Yourselves, of course. A carbon tax….. What will do with the money? Bribe the sun?
I feel vindicated that the clueless Millenials who voted for Dear Selfie Leader Justin will be the same ones that will pay for all his ongoing financial mess right now.

Alberta carbon tax
Wynne’s crazies and huge Hydro bills
BC’s carbon tax was proven ineffective
wind farms are a fail

Gerald Butts: “Butts, that “Canada’s new clean growth policy will attract investment & create jobs.” BTW Gerald advised Dalton McGuinty to kickstart the Ontario HST back in 2010, claiming it will create “300 000 jobs in 10 years.

LIES!!!

The left will stop taxing us only when they take all our money away and we all depend on that same government…

Ironically fun!!!

“Green jobs” do not exist unless it is code for “unemployed millenials”

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/kevin-libin-there-will-be-no-green-job-bonanza-from-the-liberal-carbon-tax

#133 conan on 10.12.16 at 10:11 am

I believe that the US election has just gone to whole new level of interesting. When Trump says that the “shackles are off”, what does he mean?

He may now not support coal, or have any desire to rip up the Iran deal. He could start talking about Ukraine and Libya in ways that our Western media has sheltered us from.

Or, he could just continue what he is doing. Flame throwing and lame throwing insults at his political opponents.

Either way, pass the popcorn.

#134 NoName on 10.12.16 at 10:18 am

#124 AfterTheHouseSold on 10.12.16 at 7:51 am

Chrysler is all boxed residential communities on two sides and everything else on other two doesn’t help that there is no railway tracks anywhere near what adds to cost…
It is a hard to do any expansion over there, unless its from ground up, but if get to that its probably game over.

#135 Kominiscoff on 10.12.16 at 10:45 am

Our commendable strategy of calling them racist and bigot is not working because of their Canadian high school classes in history and social studies.
We must eliminate history class, social studies, and religion, and religion-like greek mythology, same as did USSR liberals.
Education modification, no religion, must be first, then shame them as racist bigot, second.

#136 maxx on 10.12.16 at 10:53 am

#28 Sammy the Shnooze on 10.11.16 at 7:28 pm

” “Middle-class voters on both sides of the Atlantic are angry at the job exodus, outsourcing and the loss of a quality of life they believed was their birthright.” – Garth

————————————————————–

I just can’t understand why people can’t be satisfied with having nothing and starve to death quietly.”

Very well put.
Were this “birthright” framed within the context of a failing marriage, the aggrieved party would very likely benefit- restitution would unfold along the lines of continuing life in the manner to which the aggrieved party had become accustomed.
Regular, decent people aren’t idiots. Those who’ve spent decades labouring in our capitalist system and had lived a certain quality of life will be forgiven for aspiring to continue that way.
Globalization is not a bad idea, however, the implementation has been less than stellar. Too much, too fast, primarily by letting “market forces” have their way with the world, orchestrated by dumb, effete, emotionally immature leaders at the helm.
It never ceases to amaze me how basic principles and laws that have served us well since forever, are largely abandoned in the face of “new and improved” trends.
Being comfortable and fortunate is good, however for many it is a hollow victory when so many are struggling mightily on a daily basis.
Humanity is not generally very happy, government trust continues to erode rapidly and the results are beginning to manifest.

#137 james on 10.12.16 at 12:28 pm

#59 Smoking Man on 10.11.16 at 8:37 pm

Garth,

You’re missing the key driver to Trumpianism.
It’s the political correctness being shoved down everyone’s throat, the constant harassment on free speech. The shutting down of debate, the science is settled. The lefties are trapped in a false narrative and must abide by every single talking point. MSM enforcing it.
Their leaders are thieving liars and bastards, the left wing goslings who worship their teacher talking rulers are just about as smart as a piece of wood floating in a sewage treatment pool while thinking they’ve made it to mecca.
They pretend to be nice, They pretend to be inclusive, They pretend to be diverse. They pretend the other are the bullies.
Look how the left on reddit attacked Rob Ford the day of his funeral. Fricken Animals.
………………………………………………………………….
Yes sir Mr Smoking Man (Not PHD in a made up name).
your quote “smart as a piece of wood floating in a sewage treatment pool” pretty much sums up Donald Trump. I have never ever seen a master liar as good as he is. As much as I dislike Hillery I dislike him more. If he stood up and talked that way and behaved the way he does in my company (which I might add is worth 3 times as much as his purported worth) he would be tossed out on his behind. He is a fraud, a bully and a liar who truly thinks that if we listen to him it must be true. In today’s day and age fact checking is simple. Why does he continue to spew out blatant lies and such verbal diarrhea? Wow the people that support this tyrant who acts like a five year old brat must be a sad lot. Looking forward to Novembers end game. It will be interesting to see where all of the sick individuals go with their misogynistic racially motivated hatred and views. Oh I know where they can go, to a very hot place!

#138 Setting the Record Straight on 10.12.16 at 12:29 pm

@127
The person peopleyou were calling middle class were middle income well paid workers, that us working class.

Today the middle class in the western world is represented by people with financial assets of at least one million dollars ( you could live, just barely, on 40 to 50 K per year of income in some locations) up to say 10 to 15 million of financial assets. That is live without working for others. Ownership of a prosperous small business would also qualify. Because of increasing me taxes income measures are not definitive.

You are probably correct that the days of a substantial working class earning a decent income are in the past.
Earning a decent income are gone in

#139 Context on 10.12.16 at 12:32 pm

#132 conan: The next debate will be most interesting as you should have seen the speech in Panama City last night. Trump did his homework on the recent dump of emails that were hacked which were explosive as he made a full disclosure about Hillary and her husband.

#140 Setting the Record Straight on 10.12.16 at 12:35 pm

@135
Government has grown ever more powerful, aggressive and larger. AT the same time standards of living have fallen for the average worker. You conclude that the problem is not enough government.

#141 Dan on 10.12.16 at 12:38 pm

Well, Turdeau is not better but at least peasant of the mighty north won their right to have their own dynasty.
One step out of the shade of mighty empire. Or today is just small green and rainy island near to Europe?
Trump is a punk but establishment is very weak
fearing even something like him. Cold war will be back big time but this time China will tip the balance. Invest in armaments stocks.

#142 Victor V on 10.12.16 at 12:49 pm

Canada’s mortgage clampdown promises economic pain now, gain later

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadas-mortgage-clampdown-promises-economic-pain-now-gain-later

#143 NRI on 10.12.16 at 12:49 pm

#133…Railway tracks are exactly off the Chrysler Plant in Brampton, one light north of Airport/Williams Parkway intersection on Airport Road in Brampton.

#144 james on 10.12.16 at 12:51 pm

#78 The American on 10.11.16 at 9:36 pm

At #47: Nothing Taboo, you win the award for the dumbest comment of the evening (so far). Americans won’t elect a woman President? That’s laughable, considering we’ve elected a black President TWICE and he won also the popular vote. Think Americans are racist or sexist? Not nearly as much as Canadians like to think. You little guys sure do love to cling to antiquated, ignorant, and comical notions of the American populous, don’t you? :-) Watch and wait. Hillary is going to win by a landslide. Latest polls show her 52% vs Trump at only 38%. 10% margin. And she continues to gain. Hillary will indeed be our President, by way of both the popular vote AND the Delegates (BTW, that’s what matters in an American election).
……………………………………………………………………..
I work in the US about 40% of the time during each year. It has been a polarizing effect when I carefully bring up the word “election.” The one thing I have noticed is that most Americans are quietly analyzing the pros and cons of each candidate. Americans are not as dumb as they are made up to be. The ones that Trump has tapped into are mostly white males with average to no education. Granted they have a wide spectrum that covers the whole genre however it is a core of dedicated followers that are quite literally fanatical about him. The rest are simply jumping on the wagon train along for the ride. The word is Trump will never, and can not ever be elected as he is too unpredictable. The words “not fit” have often come up as well. Americans will vote with their wallet first. With Trump it would not matter if you had a wallet full of money or a truck full of money when the when the energy flux exceeds 125 J/cm2 near ground zero. Poof!

#145 Dan on 10.12.16 at 12:53 pm

And I wish Trump to win. Just to prove that everybody could be the President of a fallen empire and also to see mainstream media suck up to him after they tried for so long to kill him. And what about globalisation?
Well it creates cheap slavery. Because in roman times,
army had to go to invade other countries, capture slaves, fed them, clothe them, kept them in good health
until sold. See, like an investment? Today army drops some bombs on foreign countries and the best slaves pays for their own plane ticket to escape to freedom and democracy which drop the bombs on them…
And refugees are for decoration and for destabilisation of Europe…

#146 JimH on 10.12.16 at 12:56 pm

#75 The American on 10.11.16 at 9:23 pm
You almost got it right, my friend! You write;
“At #4: Pathcontrolmonk, you clearly have no idea how the election process works in the U.S. If Trump drops out, Pence is NOT automatically the nominee. The ballets have been cast. If Trump drops out, Hillary wins by default. Once a nomination is confirmed, such is the case with Trump, it is in it to win it or bust. No other way around it. No give backs. No do-overs.”

You’re right to say that ‘Pence is not automatically the nominee.’ But it is wrong to say that ‘Hillary wins by default’.

Remember that we do not simply elect the person whose name appears on the ballot; we actually elect the electors standing for the winning ticket. It is the Electoral College (or “College of Electors” if you prefer) that actually elects the President. There has only been a couple of instances in history where an elector hasn’t cast a vote for the winning candidate.

You’re right; the ballots have been printed and advance balloting and absentee balloting has already started. Even if trump were to drop out, there would still in effect be a ‘Trump/Pence’ ticket, and the Republican Electors could cast their votes for that ticket in whatever State that ticket wins a majority.

At present, the whole deal is really a moot point. The notion that any Republican ticket can win at this late date is a pipe dream, in spite of whatever silly little fantasies the delusional Trumpettes who frequent this here blog might still hold.

==================================

BTW, there has been much silly chatter here about what a great businessman the Donald is, having created a ‘vast empire’ from just about nothing.

Forbes now estimates Trumps net worth at about $3.7 Billion, but that figure includes a valuation on the “Trump Brand” which just might be undergoing a rather prodigious devaluation at the moment.

But that’s okay; after all, he’s one hell of a lot richer than I am!

But look; in 1976, Trump boasted to the NY Times that he was personally worth “$200 Million”. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2186610-donald-trump-real-estate-promoter-builds-image.html

If true, then we should be asking why this “Great Businessman” isn’t one hell of a lot richer than he is! After all, a $200 Million investment in the S&P 500 started in 1976 would have resulted in a current net worth of $4.3 Billion, without considering dividends! In short, despite huge loans from his father, he hasn’t been able to beat the S&P500.

What’s more, if he really did write down a $1 Billion loss in 1995, and used it to not pay any Federal Income tax for 18 years (which he said made him “smart”), then his income over that time period never could have exceeded a max of `$50 Million in any given year in order for him to use up the write-down over this time period!

Putting that aside, and we should, the man is about as well qualified to lead the free world as is Bozo the Clown. Those that still support Trump and spew out their ‘Jack Daniels wisdom’ to rationalize their choice on this blog are simply telling the rest of us that they are as low in the gutter as he is!

#147 EB on 10.12.16 at 1:54 pm

“The elites are not the problem, the people are the problem.” – Joachim Gauck

The wisdom of the status quo, which blithely hollowed out industry in the west to offshore it cheaply (which was “inevitable”, meaning “more profitable so we’re doing it no matter what”) and nosedived the global economy so thoroughly that we’re still in an era of emergency interest rates nearly a decade later, doesn’t appear quite so absolute any more.

Trump is a boil, certainly, but he’s a symptom of a systemic infection that isn’t going away.

#148 pBrasseur on 10.12.16 at 2:12 pm

I think the FED is very likely to move and will do so more often than not. It should do that to avoid entering a potentially very slippery slope where it would have very little control on inflation.

The main reason for this is that this time “tightening” will mean raising rates on loans and returns on savings but will NOT decrease access to liquidity. The reason being that since the GFC banks reserves are now plentiful and the Fed cannot possibly «buy» enough of them back to slow down lending (slow the growth of circulating money).

What this really means if that lending and inflation ever kick in interest rates would have to climb very fast and very high (faster and higher than in previous cycles) to slow it down because fewer other means are available to do so. This time the Fed must be VERY vigilant about inflation to avoid going there, in other words there is less potential pain by erring on the upside.

Higher rates sooner than later, I think that will be the price to pay for getting involved so massively in the last recession, there is no such thing as free money and as usual there won’t be no free meal. This is what you get when you try to replace free markets: more extremes, we got extremely low rates, eventually we might get just the opposite.

If this turns out it will be very bad news for Canada.

#149 Tudval on 10.12.16 at 2:23 pm

Seems like our governments are colluding to make houses cheaper for foreigners, with the condition that they get 15% of the proceeds of the sale, rather than the rightful owner. Think about what tightening the rules for canadians and rising land transfer tax to foreigners mean and there’s no other conclusion.

You can bet that in a continuing collapse of globalism (which I saw coming 8-10 years ago) foreign capital will continue to come to North America. Our governments will welcome it, provided they get a cut. As simple as that.

#150 me again on 10.12.16 at 2:41 pm

The implications for the Canadian real estate market – already sucker-punched by Wild Bill Morneau last Monday – are legion.


sucker-punched is an understatement if you’ve been renting your basement for the last 10 years, declaring the income and deducting the expenses, getting hst rebates for your reno and expecting to have the whole cookie to yourselfie on retirement,
foreign buyers are just a ruse

#151 zentao on 10.12.16 at 2:52 pm

There is a great essay on the rise of Trump from a rather unorthodox source:

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.ca/2016/01/donald-trump-and-politics-of-resentment.html

Since we are always one cycle behind our southern neighbours it is good to have some understanding of why he rose to the position – we’re bound to have a similar reaction once hopey-changey wears off…

#152 james on 10.12.16 at 3:00 pm

Ha! what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
Well Donald your fired!

http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/chicagoinc/ct-donald-trump-apprentice-maria-kanellis-20161011-story.html

#153 Victor V on 10.12.16 at 3:05 pm

Fed policymakers see rate rise ‘relatively soon’, but inflation doubts remain

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fed-policymakers-closer-to-rate-hike-but-inflation-doubts-remain

Several voting Federal Reserve policymakers judged a rate hike would be warranted “relatively soon” if the U.S. economy continued to strengthen, according to the minutes of the Fed’s September policy meeting released on Wednesday.

The minutes of the Sept. 20-21 meeting, at which the U.S. central bank held rates steady, also showed the depth of the divide at the Fed over timing.

“Several members judged that it would be appropriate to increase the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon if economic developments unfolded about as…expected,” the Fed said in the minutes.

#154 Context on 10.12.16 at 3:12 pm

#4 pathcontrolhunk:- I cannot ignore your words of wisdom versus The American #75. You are correct as under rule 9 the GOP can appoint a new nominee to run against Hillary for President.

#155 jess on 10.12.16 at 3:18 pm

pathetic “dash for cash” RBS

The cache of documents, passed by a whistleblower to BuzzFeed News and BBC Newsnight, support controversial allegations in a report three years ago by the government’s then entrepreneur in residence Lawrence Tomlinson.

He accused the taxpayer-owned bank of deliberately putting viable businesses on a path to destruction while aiming to pick up their assets on the cheap….The documents also show that where business customers had not defaulted on their loans, bank staff could find a way to “provoke a default”.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37591335

#156 espressobob on 10.12.16 at 3:43 pm

In case anyone was wondering about rate reset prefs?

https://www.bmo.com/gam/ca/advisor/products/etfs#=undefined&fundUrl=%2FfundProfile%2FZPR

These are best held in a non-registered account for tax advantages.

#157 Mark on 10.12.16 at 3:57 pm

“If true, then we should be asking why this “Great Businessman” isn’t one hell of a lot richer than he is! After all, a $200 Million investment in the S&P 500 started in 1976 would have resulted in a current net worth of $4.3 Billion, without considering dividends! In short, despite huge loans from his father, he hasn’t been able to beat the S&P500.”

Keep in mind that the expense side of the equation isn’t in your calculations. 2 divorces, figure out how much that would cost a guy for starters. That 757 airplane he has and flying it around all the time — sure some of that’s a business expense, but surely a big chunk of that is out of his pocket. The cost base on his businesses could be quite high compared to, for example, someone who bought and held the S&P500 all those years but had a very low cost base (and hence a huge deferred tax liability) locked in.

And who knows, in real estate, its easy to exaggerate or even delude one’s net worth is much higher because RE isn’t exactly all that liquid. So that $200M allegation was probably exaggerated at the time. Kind of like certain Vancouver/Toronto-ites, despite the past 3 years of stagnant prices (sales mix shifts being responsible for most ‘appreciation’), actually and honestly believe that their houses went up 20-30% or whatever nonsense numbers the Realtors are claiming in the newspaper ‘headlines’.

The ones that Trump has tapped into are mostly white males with average to no education.

He’s also tapped into highly educated men and women who are tired of seeing their professions and jobs destroyed because their employers would just rather hire some young foreigner at a fraction of the cost. Deporting the foreigner when their usefulness has run its course rather than providing long-term career paths.

Apparently Trump is also doing well with African Americans who were told that they’d be led to the promised land by Obama, but have actually been set backwards by the horrible economy. Even Hispanics like Trump in numbers much higher than implied by polls as they don’t like their communities, nor their racial image being disrupted by the scourge of illegal immigration.

#158 NoName on 10.12.16 at 4:02 pm

#142 NRI on 10.12.16 at 12:49 pm

jokeying a cars “acros” city is very efficient.

#159 Metaxa on 10.12.16 at 4:09 pm

When Trump says that the “shackles are off”, what does he mean?

Shackles is a very loaded word in the US, no?
Trump, btw, didn’t send that tweet..he uses android and that one went out on an iPhone…so it was one of his alt right handlers who sent it and I think it means just what it they wanted it to mean, Trump has been held back like a slave to the GOP but how he is free.

Free at last, eh?

#160 Victor V on 10.12.16 at 4:13 pm

VIDEO: Here’s how some Canadians may seek to avoid new mortgage rules

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/heres-how-some-canadians-may-seek-to-avoid-new-mortgage-rules

#161 Future Expatriate on 10.12.16 at 4:19 pm

#6 You know what “trumps” that number?

The number of women who will be voting for Hillary and lying to their husbands that they’ll vote Trump.

About twenty to one. Women are not about to go back to back alleys and coat hangers no matter how much their husbands want that control.

#162 NoName on 10.12.16 at 4:36 pm

@MF

every time i read your comments they remind me of Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, you two would be prefect couple. only better fit would be Sar a Pal in but she would be probably to rough for you.

#163 Smoking Man on 10.12.16 at 4:55 pm

#136 james on 10.12.16 at 12:28 pm
#59 Smoking Man on 10.11.16 at 8:37 pm

Garth,

You’re missing the key driver to Trumpianism.
It’s the political correctness being shoved down everyone’s throat, the constant harassment on free speech. The shutting down of debate, the science is settled. The lefties are trapped in a false narrative and must abide by every single talking point. MSM enforcing it.
Their leaders are thieving liars and bastards, the left wing goslings who worship their teacher talking rulers are just about as smart as a piece of wood floating in a sewage treatment pool while thinking they’ve made it to mecca.
They pretend to be nice, They pretend to be inclusive, They pretend to be diverse. They pretend the other are the bullies.
Look how the left on reddit attacked Rob Ford the day of his funeral. Fricken Animals.
………………………………………………………………….
Yes sir Mr Smoking Man (Not PHD in a made up name).
your quote “smart as a piece of wood floating in a sewage treatment pool” pretty much sums up Donald Trump. I have never ever seen a master liar as good as he is. As much as I dislike Hillery I dislike him more. If he stood up and talked that way and behaved the way he does in my company (which I might add is worth 3 times as much as his purported worth) he would be tossed out on his behind. He is a fraud, a bully and a liar who truly thinks that if we listen to him it must be true. In today’s day and age fact checking is simple. Why does he continue to spew out blatant lies and such verbal diarrhea? Wow the people that support this tyrant who acts like a five year old brat must be a sad lot. Looking forward to Novembers end game. It will be interesting to see where all of the sick individuals go with their misogynistic racially motivated hatred and views. Oh I know where they can go, to a very hot place!
……………………..

All your questions are answered in Chapter 10 of my Fiction Novel

#164 WalMark of sadkatoon on 10.12.16 at 5:12 pm

Myth: Trump would have done better investing in an index fund.

Sorry. Just liberal propaganda. Admit you bias

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-09-03/should-donald-trump-have-indexed-

#165 Keith in Calgary on 10.12.16 at 5:27 pm

Best post of the thread.

The curtain has been pull back on the wizard of leftism in this US election……for they are “the pallbearers of societies”……..

Globalism is a crime against humanity.

—————–

You’re missing the key driver to Trumpanism.
It’s the political correctness being shoved down everyone’s throat, the constant harassment on free speech. The shutting down of debate, the science is settled. The lefties are trapped in a false narrative and must abide by every single talking point. MSM enforcing it.

Their leaders are thieving liars and bastards, the left wing goslings who worship their teacher talking rulers are just about as smart as a piece of wood floating in a sewage treatment pool while thinking they’ve made it to mecca.

They pretend to be nice, They pretend to be inclusive, They pretend to be diverse. They pretend the other are the bullies.

Look how the left on Reddit attacked Rob Ford the day of his funeral. Fricken Animals.

——————————

I believe the US populace has finally come to it’s senses and recognized it. Just got back from business trips in Indiana and Wisconsin, going to Oregon next week, and then Michigan in 2 more weeks. The vast majority of the folks I spoke to have all said one thing to me, and it’s a very common theme……..

“I am voting for Trump because I can see how angry the worldwide political left wing is, and how angry the worldwide establishment is, and how crooked and manipulative the liars in the MSM are. Because I see and hear all this, Trump must be onto something really, really, big, because they’ve never been like this before in the history of American politics”.

#166 Briana on 10.12.16 at 5:57 pm

Looks like Torontonians and Tory are onboard for the foreign tax on real estate. Most likely coming very soon. The price spike is happening now as foreigners rush to buy…. but don’t be fooled foreigners…. when Vancouver implemented tax it was effective at an earlier date…. so those foreigners rushing to buy before tax were still dinged substantially $$$. Watch out!!!!

http://m.torontosun.com/2016/10/11/torontonians-favour-foreign-home-buyer-tax-poll

#167 Ponnaps on 10.12.16 at 6:05 pm

So the cost of money will rise
This is a given. Understood.

Slowly but relentlessly.
Never really understood why. Rates could easily fall again if increases weren’t working out, right?

#168 jerry on 10.12.16 at 6:54 pm

So is it actually wrong to be against “globalization”? It seems that the arguments for preserving good jobs and quality of life standards have merit.

The progressives haven’t actually identified what constitutes the fourth industrial revolution and how North America is going to capitalize.

#169 A very sad turn on 10.12.16 at 6:56 pm

In the main, crime is down, fewer people worldwide are starving, armed conflict is at a low level, and apart from the horrific situation in Syria, the world has never been more prosperous and safe. Free, or at least freer trade, has benefitted the pocketbooks and living situations of a lot of people worldwide.

One outcome of increased trade has been the lowering of prices and this has resulted in part because of the move of jobs from the high-wage jurisdictions to low-wage ones. If we go back to the protectionist ways of our past, we will have more local jobs but we will also have higher prices. We will all lose out. Imagine the debt-enslaved minions facing hikes of 10, 15, or 20 percent across the board for all sorts of consumer goods. And frankly, anyone seeking to set up manufacturing locally would probably rely upon increased automation so there would not, in all likelihood, be that much more employment.

In a nutshell, the Brexit Bullies, the dispossessed, and the louts who support Trump and his ilk are people who are fearful, stupid, and foolish in their longing for a return to a world that is not coming back; this is simply nostalgia at its worst.

The failure really comes down to this. About 30 years ago, it should have been apparent, even to this dim old fart, that automation and the use of computers would result in changes to how we work: greater productivity with fewer people. It also meant that you would need a smaller workforce, more highly skilled and educated, and thus the owners would not need to locate in a country with the type of workforces that we had in Canada and the US back in the 50s and 60s. We should have made this clear and we should have stressed the need for ongoing education to allow for flexibility and help people adapt to new demands in the workplace. It is a bit late now to take a reactive stance and insist on a return to “the good old days”. That would solve nothing.

#170 Joe2.0 on 10.12.16 at 6:58 pm

Trump carnal
Clinton criminal