A Victorian row house, just 15 feet wide, hit the Toronto market recently. Reno’d and flipped, it was listed for just under $1.4 million on a street in the riding that Bill Morneau represents in Ottawa. Offers were held back, creating another blind auction that realtors love and buyers despise. “Vendor requires a certified cheque with offer,” said the MLS instructions. The standard cheque these days? A hundred thousand, stapled to the bid.
How do you buy a house in that kind of environment? Aggressively. Cavalierly. Recklessly.
“I’ll come and collect the cheque and get you to sign the offer,” the agent for one of the bidders told them. “We’ll see how many offers are registered, so we’ll just leave the price blank. I’ll call you ten or 15 minutes before offers are presented to tell you how much competition there’ll be, so we can write in the number then.”
And what happens after the offers are submitted?
“They’ll probably pick a few and tell you to go back and do better,” the agent (with decades of experience) said. “So wait outside in the car and we can adjust the price up then.”
Of course, making an offer with a condition in it would be pure LOL. No seller these days will grant a buyer three or five days to come and do a home inspection, check for termites or arrange financing. Just as they won’t wait for a cheque to clear. It’s an utterly one-sided process.
By the way, offers for this ancient sliver of a dwelling in an area blocks away from public housing and Needle Park, are being accepted on Tuesday. But one day in advance of that, Mr. Morneau may have something consequential to say about the housing market (and another assault on foreign buyers), that changes everything:
Finance Minister Bill Morneau to Make Announcement
Toronto—Finance Minister Bill Morneau will make an announcement on Monday, October 3, at 11:15 a.m. local time.
Media should present themselves no later than 11:00 a.m. at the Ministers’ Regional Office, located at 150 King Street West, Suite 2404, in Toronto.
A media availability will follow.
The Department of Finance Canada will provide a background telephone briefing at 12:30 p.m. local time and will answer questions on a deep background, not-for-attribution basis only (no quotes or references to government officials). Audio recording of the briefing for the purpose of broadcast is strictly prohibited.
As you know, for months now a federal-provincial Task Force on Housing has been in effect, made up of officials from Vancouver and Toronto, as well as reps from the BC and Ontario governments, along with Morneau and his federal flunkies. The biggest event since its inception has been the 15% Chinese Dudes tax slapped on the Van market at the end of July. In August sales tanked and prices wilted, and on Monday the stats for September are due for release. They’ll show an unhealthy market developing – sales collapsing almost 50% year/year while listings balloon 18%. The average price of just over $1.5 million for a detached house is $300,000 below the peak, and local realtor Larry Yatkowsky calls it a ‘Mexican standoff’ between buyers convinced things will fall and sellers unwilling to dicker.
Meanwhile both Toronto mayor John Toronto and premier Kathleen Wynne have made it abundantly clear they’re watching the Chinese Dude tax results closely – mostly because it’s politically expedient. Now that the debt-to-income ratio has exploded through the 170% mark (higher than the US before its epic crash), 56% of people could not stand a $200-per-month increase in their expenses (last week’s poll), and with US rates set to plump next on December 14th, what’s a poor federal finance minister to do? Especially when his own riding’s being flooded with Greater Fools?
Well, let’s see this morning. The latest restriction on foreign buyers may end up being something. It may be nothing. But the status quo is doomed.
UPDATE (Oct 3, 8 am EDT: Morneau’s department confirms the announcement today will be “regarding housing.” Here’s the link. — Garth)
Stop sucking up. You’re still DELETED.
Apparently he does exist, reeking a little of JD, nicotine and alien material. Smoking Man showed up at the General Store in Belfountain on Sunday morning for the first live conversation we’ve ever had. Turns out he does drive a piece-of-crap truck with a broken windshield, and wears Wal-Mart flip-flops despite being a fallen billionaire. He spent $1.70. — Garth
200 comments ↓
First! What a duo, Garth and Smoking Man! Unbeatable team! Great Canadians.
Way to go jimmy boy!! We are all electrically connected.
Pretty sure the bald guy stole my pick-up truck battery a few weeks ago.
Nice photo of Ricky Gervais and Karl Pilkington at the bottom…
M42BC
Hopefully the ‘announcement’ is an agreement with BC to harmonize lending regulations between federally regulated institutions and provincially regulated institutions.
I visited the Vancity website the other day and was astonished to see this:
https://www.vancity.com/Mortgages/TypesOfMortgages/SpringboardProgram/
“If you qualify, we’ll loan you the money for a 20% down payment, plus a mortgage for the balance of the purchase price.”
Yet there’s still folks who claim that Vancouver’s bubble isn’t caused by subprime lending, and stubbornly cling to that “foreign money” theory which has been soundly discredited.
“Smoking Man showed up at the General Store in Belfountain on Sunday morning for the first live conversation we’ve ever had.”
Neat, but a bit concerning that Smoking Man is driving after having consumed alcohol. Knock that sh*t off Smoking Man.
Does he talk as coherently as he types?
No cigarette in his mouth? Phony!
Wow. That’s an amazing picture.
Did SM ask for a receipt?
Branch Banking & Trust Company Agrees to Pay $83 Million to Resolve Alleged False Claims Act Liability Arising from FHA-Insured Mortgage Lending
======
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/branch-banking-trust-company-agrees-pay-83-million-resolve-alleged-false-claims-act-liability
======
In hunt for tax cheats, Denmark pays $900,000 for more Panama Papers
Sorensen told Reuters the payment was made to an anonymous source
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3814008/In-hunt-tax-cheats-Denmark-pays-900-000-Panama-Papers.html
The T.O. market has topped – finally – when Smoking man and Gartho got together for that beer. 2016 leap year.
Looking at the pic of GT & SM and all I can think about is Rowat on bondage from yesterday.
Messed or what?
As puzzling is the Dept of Finance use of “answer questions on a deep background” in the press release above.
No idea what that means either.
#strangedaysindeed
haha
those shades mean lookin fellas
The flip-flops were a dead give away.
As soon as I saw the flip-flop feet, I knew that had to be Smoking Man.
He’s in much better shape than I imagined him to be, given his hard-rock life. Absolutely must be an alien.
Of-course the smoking man is real, as indeed is his certifiable PhD in Herdonomics that teaches us more about life than the usual boring Eco-101 “courses” at institutions of learning.
Now where the heck is laughing con,……….to remind us all that it’s gonna be a nasty crash realtors…..the NASTIEST crash ever :-)
The rope in the global financial tug-of-war is unraveling.
Not long ago, one of the most important members of the European Union just voted to leave the Union.
The aftermath of that departure is still boiling.
Yet, that is just the beginning.
Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, has now lost nearly 50% of its value this year.
That’s a dagger in the world’s financial system because not only is Deutsche Bank Germany’s largest bank, it’s Europe’s largest investment bank, and one of the world’s largest lenders.
Coincidentally, it also happens to be the biggest lender to Donald Trump’s real estate business – we’ll have to save the conspiracy theories for another time.
By now I am sure you’ve heard, watched, and read numerous explanations for why Germany’s largest bank is in trouble.
Yes, we’re in a period of low-interest rates, making it even harder for banks to make money.
Yes, it took on a lot of risk as a result.
And yes, the recent fine imposed on the German bank by the US Department of Justice is the straw that broke the camel’s back.
But that’s not the whole story – not even close.
There is much more than meets the eye. In fact, it is global political warfare at its finest.
Here goes…
http://www.equedia.com/the-united-states-vs-germany-a-global-financial-war?utm_source=October+2%2C+2016&utm_campaign=October+2%2C+2016&utm_medium=email
Garth beware, I think Smoking Man’s photo is hanging in the post office
Smoking Man for prime minister.
“When $235K could buy you a home in Vancouver
Vancouver real estate has been through rough times in recent history…”
“But the booming B.C. economy quickly gave way to bad times.
Unemployment, inflation and interest rates soared across Canada over the course of a year, and the problem was said to be at its worst in Vancouver.
Many who lost their jobs could no longer afford their mortgages, which were now subject to interest rates close to 20 per cent. And they couldn’t sell their homes because few could afford them, leading to bankruptcy.
The homeowner in the video above, originally broadcast in 1982, had bought his home in Vancouver for $235,000 — the equivalent of about $591,000 today. By the following year, the value of his house had dropped 25 per cent…”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-housing-archives-1.3783346
On the subject of meeting Smoking Man…you do know that the doomers will see this as a sign of the coming apocalypse. Everything is aligning as it should.
You look a little like the Canadian Ricky Gervais in that photo.
Smokey you’re a PITA right winger but endearing at the same time.
Why can’t we all get along?
Hopefully the announcement will be a 15 tax on foreign bought homes in the GTA. This will end up saving the taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars and will save banks from going insolvent in Canada.
Who’s the other guy?
Smokey would spend a lot more than $1.70 if you were licensed by the LCBO.
That photo blew my mind.
Smoking Man: modeled after uncle Duke in Doonsbury which was copied by Garry Trudeau from Hunter S. Thompson.
Hopefully Bill grew some balls and is going to do something spectacular like change the requirements necessary to obtain CHMC Insurance on a hoam loan. Lender’s need to have more skin in the game…. Why should taxpayers be on the hook for irresponsible Lending.
Nice pic with smoking man.
Apparently “Space Travel” is hard on one’s follicles.
OMG Garth you met smoking man?
Did you get his autograph????
Should frame this pic on the wall of your store.
JT and SM? I smell a tour brewing…
Is that Smoking Man or Brad Lamb?
Sorry, GT and SM…
Haha…what did he buy…a bic lighter ?
Nice photo of Ricky Gervais and Karl Pilkington at the bottom…
M42BC
————————————————————
Haha… good eye!
OMG Garth-and-Smoking-Man photo! Smokey, is that a picture of yourself on your t-shirt?
“Turns out he does drive a piece-of-crap truck with a broken windshield, and wears Wal-Mart flip-flops despite being a fallen billionaire.”
Not spending money is a big part of being wealthy. What use is millions of dollars if you piss it away in a few years on transient, material crap like MC Hammer and who knows how many other TV/Movie/Music stars?
Nice to see Garth and SM getting along in real life.
You did get along, right?
Could Morneau’s announcement be the catalyst that sends the whole housing market spiraling downwards? I wonder…
FIR……Uh, never mind.
Smoking Man needs a haircut.
Close Encounters.
Well, it finally happened, I jumped into the truck and headed up Hwy 10, went left on King street and right on Mississauga rd. GPS said 10 more kilometers, this is the furthest upriver I’ve ever gone on my previous failed attempts to meet the god dogs. This was my Martin Sheen moment. The road was like a scary river in Vietnam going to meet Kurt’s. I imagined all kinds of weird shit, negative outcomes raced through my mind at lightning speed.
I get to the four corners of Belfountain and there is a road block up ahead, these old geezers with big X symbols on their shirts, I was about to do a U-turn, and an epic burnout, but the traffic killed that idea I was trapped. To my relief, they were just collecting money for some kids or something, I was in full panic mode so I don’t remember much of the encounter except for forking over a 5 and hoping this will get me passed the checkpoint.
I see a hummer in the parking lot of the general store, I pull right beside it on the other side, out of view from whatever was lurking in that store. I had a cigarette, took it down in one drag. I forced myself out of the truck and slowly walked toward the door. I get in and to my relief no Garth. Just a pleasant young lady who got me a really good coffee for a 1.70 and in my moment of terror, I forgot to tip her. I asked her.” Is Garth here,” hoping she would say no. She said “Yes”
I asked her to tell him an off planet observer from a galaxy far away would like to see him.
A minute worth of time went by which was like a few weeks to me. I hear what sounds like brown suede cowboy boots hitting the dirt hard outside the store. I spot Garth coming toward the door in cool RayBands. We shake hands go outside and shoot the shit for about half an hour. I meet Dorothy and Bandit.
Being a supreme Alien observational technologist I was floored. Got to say truthfully that Garth and Dorothy are truly remarkable. I felt extream warmth radiate from these strangers who know I’m totally certifiably insane but it didn’t seem to matter to them much.
My first impression is they truly care about humanity and enjoy helping people regardless of how different we all are. Definitely going back, bringing the wife and dogs the next time.
I sort of wish I never went, how can I be Smoking Man on here going forward after this pleasantly warm encounter of the third kind. But then again I still have lots of JD hidden in the back yard and I’m not quitting drinking anytime soon.
Wow! A genuine picture of Smoking Man? I never thought that I would see that!
Thanks as always for witty and wacky prose, and straight advice. Nice pic of you and the store. Will visit definitely one of these days. And will spend more than $1.70 too :-)
Loving the Smoking Man postscript! (Even though I when I visited the store there was no Garth to be seen, never mind available to pose for a picture).
“Sales collapse” is certainly the word for it! Local realtor/investor/spokesman extraordinaire, Ozzie Jurock has reported only THIRTY EIGHT sales for SFH in all of Vancouver East for the entire m of September.
Not pretty…for the sellers that is. He he…
…month…
Sales in my neighborhood seemed to have slowed recently in line with the rest of the city,but I walked by a house at 5508 Chester st today and saw it had a sold sticker on it.
Sales now have slowed enough that I think that they should install a giant bell at the top of Queen Elizabeth Park and someone rings it every time the paperwork is completed…
M42BC
Congratulations, Garth, on your Close Encounter of the 1st Kind with your resident alien. He would show up at a small town general store, just like in a second rate episode of the X-Files.
I always believed that he existed. Still don’t believe his drivel.
The minister won’t change anything yet. The economy will have to start to implode before he will say anything of any import, and I don’t think that there is anything he can do to stop what is coming.
It’s terrible that I am starting to sound like the Smoking Man too. I am sorry.
Captions:
Brave Dog
Brave Man
Great Pic!
Yes. The announcement tomorrow will no doubt hold millions in anticipation.
So many Canadians living payday to payday in such a wealthy country. Very sad.
Ignore putting Freedom First at your peril. Married or Free.
Maybe Morneau is going to announce the end to Defined Benefit Pensions for all Federal Employees, changing them to Defined Contribution Pensions. This will make a positive change on all policies developed by Federal Bureaucrats.
I knew it. He’s my hero.
Finally…..the RE end is nigh in Canada. Finally.
LOL! Oh Smoking man, you’ve reached new heights. Positive ones yet. It looks like Garth may just have a soft spot for you. Dont mess it up… and take the hazing like a man. This blog is just amazing! Mr. Turner, you are the coolest.
Mayor John Toronto he must love the job to chance his name lol
$1.70 sounds reasonable given that the Belfountain doesn’t sell booze and tobacco
Hi Garth. One thing that nobody has ever realized or published is that Americans can write off mortgage interest against their income. Therefore our peak debt level at 170% is considerably higher than people are aware of when comparing to our
American cousins. It is probably more like 190 – 200% for comparison purposes. I live and own a business in insanity central….Vancouver. So many businesses are suffering and barely holding on as people have no money left after paying huge mortgages and ever increasing rents. I personally Vancouver will implode into a black smoking hole of its own making. I don’t own and have a wonderful landlord who seemed happy to subsidize me to the tune of $2,500 per month. I have also expanded my business into the US so I won’t be effected. Interesting times!!!!
Sundance Cassidy and Billy The Kid.
Haha, keeping him at arm’s length ;)
Blog Stars
Smoking Man exists!
And in other news, I look forward to whatever this announcement stands to show. I’m a bit surprised, Garth, that you aren’t teasing us on what to expect…usually you do so, which suggests you either a) don’t know or b) the announcement is of such significance you don’t want to leak it early.
My personal hope is that they nuke the moral hazard inherent in CMHC insurance and require the banks to share no less than half of the liability of a failed mortgage for when CMHC insurance applies, and boost minimum down payments to 10%. I’d like to see a minimum of 20%, because it would start to require people to have skin in the game. If you can’t save a down payment, what hope do you have of saving for anything else (contingency, kid’s education, retirement?)
How does Smoking Man know Ricky Gervais? Why is Ricky in Ontario?
Garth, If you want to get Smoking Man’s spend up, you’ve got to get a liquor licence! WB
Fallen billionaire?
He should run for prime minister
Now 14 houses for sale in my immediate Burnaby Deer Lake 1 KM area (up from 12 a few days ago), but one has a sold sticker now.
“Stop sucking up. You’re still DELETED.” Garth
Who Smoking Man?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuLVzKSxj_Q
great pic…guy on the right looks not too bad for someone supposedly so debauched….guy on the left looks pretty relaxed…..considering…..
Bill Morneau will inform the reporters that everything is so messed up that he hasn’t got a clue how to fix it, and he is retiring to his lakeside home in the Muskokas
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/guilty-plea-in-multimillion-real-estate-fraud-in-calgary-1.3097206
CALGARY — A former executive of a failed Calgary-based real estate investment company has pleaded guilty for his part in a multimillion dollar fraud.
Varun Aurora, who is 33, also agreed Friday to pay $1 million in restitution for his involvement with Concrete Equities.
The firm, which went into receivership in 2009, raised money from Canadian investors to buy undeveloped beach properties in Senora, Mexico, called the El Golfo de Santa Clara Project.
About 1,200 victims are believed to have lost more than $23 million.
Two kinds of cool right there folks!
#63 SBby
————-
I was starting to wonder if more people were like me watching certain pockets. I am also watching a specific area; River Springs in Coquitlam North. This same time last year it had just one listing. This year there are 5 and they are sitting for longer.
While true, Garth says buyers are not willing to budge on price, I believe today’s seller must be a little freaked wondering where are my multiple bids? Why is my open house empty?
These homes should be selling like hot cakes, especially since i thought everyone believed in the theory “they’re not making more land”. Remember that expression during the FOMO era?
The top is here. And buyers know it. FOMO is so 2015.
Smoking Man appears to have a heart (albeit, possibly alien). Good for you, SM!
I think everyone will love this one. Architectural Digest is now telling the world not to move to Vancouver!!
Imagine Conde Nast
http://tinyurl.com/h95cxrl
#35 Interstellar Old Yeller on 10.02.16 at 6:58 pm
OMG Garth-and-Smoking-Man photo! Smokey, is that a picture of yourself on your t-shirt?
…..
It’s a picture an extremely talented fellow blog dog hand painted on canvis after reading the first 6 chapters of my fiction novel and it’s going to be the book cover.
Not many listings here in North Van but there is the little rancher for 1.6 something million and it doesn’t appear to have sold yet. I’m hoping for a major crash in Vancouver because I’m a bored dickhead and it would be entertaing to see the debtors filling their drawers. I know a lot of people living way beyond their means and I assume it’s on Lotto 64 heloc. Never felt that way before, maybe it’s because rainy season is just around the corner.
Smoking man has that Heisenburg thing going on, was he wearing a fedora?
Best Picture Ever! This blog never fails to make me laugh, thanks for that Garth.
Ha! When the SHTF, and the CBC does the Movie of the Week about the Canadian Housing collapse, I hope they do get Ricky Gervais to play the part of Garth.
He might need to chisel his physique, and wear a hair piece to simulate Garth’s flowing locks, but at least he’ll be able to deliver the derisive one-liners with aplomb.
Maybe smoking man can play the part of Brad Lamb?
Amazon girl
Oh my God!!! Close Encounters of the Third kind
I will keep this picture as a historical moment….
The toe nails kill me , Smokey I need more proof
Where is your rotten teeth? You did not smile….
1.70 for a coffee Why not a cone ?
and share…well Garth you lost weight, but the
hairy beard man is still strong…
Old truck dudes, are cool. Good Pic.
In the 70’s, we had Cheech & Chong. In the 80’s, A-Team. In the 90’s, Men in Black. In 2016, GT & SM. Preventing families from financial Armageddon, one day at a time.
PB43
#CinemaVerite,Or… #AlternativeNarratives… #ForTheCloseEncounter…
https://youtu.be/ngggl6Afc3E?t=37s
https://youtu.be/5NZXmq-E2tM
Seeing a pic of SM then reading his own account was much better than “getting to know how rich/poor each blogdog is”. No longer anonymous, SM better watch his tail next time he’s at the casino!
Re 5508 chester sale for 1.1 million. ..that would have brought 1.35 just 3 months ago.. 20 down 20 more to go 10 by December…. Fact
Who knew Garth was so darn dapper? Did he get dressed up for the occasion?
I remember the Mexican standoff in SF Bay Area about nine years ago…lasted many months, maybe a year, but sellers always blink eventually (maybe not the particular seller of the specific property you’re interested in right now), bringing carnage exceeding the finale in Peckinpah’s “The Wild Bunch”.
Some sellers have to sell (retirement, lost job, relocation); once the cracks in the dam appear, there’s no stopping it…the market psychology shifts.
Nice work boys, Any chance of of Gartho/Smoking man hybrid ETF ? Balanced With Forex exposure.
Hi Garth!
What do you think of this video?
Housing value increase = restricted development … because of… Ugly development
https://youtu.be/dcbjWGj3jBk
That photo of Gartho and SM is epic.
Hey Gartho how drunk would you need to be to let SM write a blog entry? Oh yeah!!!
Wow! Two Icons in the same photograph!!! As the kids say…. “Awesome”
I always imagined SM as a long haired fella..
Ugh.
A ‘jump-the-shark’ moment for this blog?
Sycophancy.
Smoking Man? Looks a little like Walt’s BIL Hank Schrader from Breaking Bad. Seriously though Garth, did you make SM produce a birth certificate? ;)
Omg… Dad!????
“In August sales tanked and prices wilted, and on Monday the stats for September are due for release. They’ll show an unhealthy market developing – sales collapsing almost 50% year/year while listings balloon 18%. The average price of just over $1.5 million for a detached house is $300,000 below the peak, and local realtor Larry Yatkowsky calls it a ‘Mexican standoff’ between buyers convinced things will fall and sellers unwilling to dicker.” – GT
====================================
Prices will drop for one very simple reason: Very few people HAVE to buy a house. They may want one but they do not HAVE to buy one. Nobody puts a gun to their heads to buy one.
In contrast, when your banker sends you a letter you may HAVE TO SELL your house to get out from under. The bankers letter is the gun to the head of the seller. No negotiating on that issue and the aspirations, wants and dreams of the seller fade to black.
And that’s why prices drop.
Wesley Lancelot Toulomne on 10.02.16 at 6:08 pm
First! What a duo, Garth and Smoking Man! Unbeatable team! Great Canadians.
————————————————
Except by constantly shorting the CAD he’s betting against Canada.
Very few things anger me like a grown man in flip flops. In October? Not in a shower, not at beach? You better be a diabetic. Otherwise, no excuse. At least put on some socks like a German!
Smokey, nice tablecloth shirt! Why the flippy floppies tho? Garth, the next step is to have Smoking man Guest blog. Give Rowat a Sunday off or somethin’. Garth for PM, Smoking Man for Minister of Finance. Dream ticket 2019? Conservatives!
Smoking stud!!!!!
#89 james on 10.02.16 at 9:24 pm
Ugh.
A ‘jump-the-shark’ moment for this blog?
Sycophancy.
……….
This is why I love you…. Free unrestricted speech. Treasure it. The people you ideologicly worship have a problem with. Open your eyes.
There is still hope for you.
Aaaaaahahahaha.
Atta boy Smoking Man. You’ve hit the big time!!
Your novel will sell another 7 copies after this?!
hehehe
– Steve “The Dudely Renter” French
The real Smoking Man is said to be DocRAM, Dr. Richard Alan Miller.
Miller, now 72 has a background working in black projects above top secret.
http://richardalanmiller.com/about-dr-richard-alan-miller
He has recently come forward in a more public way to talk about his experiences and has several new books he has recently published focusing on alchemy, psychic development and much more.
https://www.amazon.com/Richard-Alan-Miller/e/B001KCI4XW/ref=pd_sim_b_bl_2
DocRAM frequents radio shows to talk about mind blowing variety of topics, from holography (after his papers written for the Navy Intel and other agencies were finally de-classified), training navy seals, water, Fukushima, 9/11, time travel, botanics, X-files, Hollywood.
While he talks naturally with extreme intelligence, I admire how often he is able to say: “I don’t know”.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=richard+alan+miller
With all these on his mind, he still has time to remind us to Leonard Cohen’s birthday on his Facebook page.
https://www.facebook.com/docramcom/
He curates links to “thing that matter”, one of the last entry is an interview with Ann Barnhardt.
Barnhardt closed her firm, Barnhardt Capital Management in 2011, with a letter to her clients that sent shockwaves about the state of futures and options market and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
https://adask.wordpress.com/2011/11/21/barnhardt-capital-management-closes/
In this interview Barnhardt entertains the idea that the current election is the political version of the classic pro wrestling. She is speculating that Trump does not actually want to be president, he is playing the election pro-wrestling only to increase the value of the Trump brand, which in her estimate grew by 2 billion dollars since Donald entered the presidential race entertainment show. Barnhardt points out that Trump and the Clinton family has a long-term relationship, which includes Hillary and Chelsea’s seating at Trump’s third wedding, “where his parents would sit, if they were alive”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkQx_OKnSxQ#t=17
Come on Garth; you knew Smoking Man was real.
Garth, I see the number 1888 above the floor mat to your store. That’s one lucky number. You should list it now before any tax comes in.
96 Shirley valentine on 10.02.16 at 9:53 pm
Smoking stud!
.
Now I’m scared… Where you been babe….
I am framing that photo.
Suggest, you both sign and auction them for charity.
Wow, I always thought Smoking Man was Garth’s alter ego. Was I the only one?
Garth looks scared :)
Pfft. Smoking Man is sucking up. Bring it. See you at Belfountain, Garth.
China flag ceremony at Vancouver City Hall raises red flags for some
http://m.metronews.ca/#/article/news/vancouver/2016/10/02/china-flag-ceremony-vancouver-city-hall-raises-red-flags.html
Two legends meet, go figure. Well done, Garth and Smokey!
I love that you guys met up! And I agree you totally look like Ricky Gervais in that photo. When are you going to start “tweeting”? I just got a Twitter account. Addicting.
dumb and dumber
Damnit…thought I was lookin’ at a potential Max Webster reunion there for a minute!
Hey…where’s the drummer?
Smoking Man is the GOAT poster here
So Smoking Man is the wilted husk of a man in the middle disguised as a corn stalk and the dude on the right is Hunter Thompson reincarnated?
Aliens to the rescue!
Very cool – nice to see real peeps meet up like this
Rage against the machine
The really nice thing about the FOMO acronym is that we can continue to use it now that the RE market has turned.
Of course this time it will refer to the real estate agents (sorry Realtors) and home sellers worried about not having sold at the peak.
#4 For those about to flop… on 10.02.16 at 6:12 pm
Best comment of the night.
#72 SM – I’ll buy your book if you take pity money…
Ballsy move SM kudos2.0
The neighbours here just dropped their house asking price by $300,000. They said before that they would never drop it because someone would pay their price.
Sellers in Vancouver might be unwilling to dicker, but eventually they will have to……the only ones who won’t for a long time are the millennial owners who have never seen interest rates above 3%.
Nice pic of Garth and Smoking Man, but there ought to be a Harley in there somewhere.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-03/singapore-home-prices-have-biggest-drop-in-more-than-seven-years
Was that a $1.70 before or after taxes?!!
I guess you don’t sell liquor, smokes or lottery tickets at the Belfountain? And, holy smokes Smokey, why don’t you take up acting and join the Trailer Park Boys? I think you would fit right in. Seriously…
Please stop quoting a research firm that cannot do basic math or at least, amend your citation data.
They say 56% of Canadians or 16,182,208 are destitute where they are < $200/month away from budget Armageddon.
Use division.
28,896,800 or Canada's population in 2002.
1st clue something amiss.
Canada's estimated population is 36,286,425, as of last week.
Thus 2 possible results this time adding multiplication to the mix:
45% or 20,320,398 destitute…flip a coin?
2nd clue:
31% technically insolvent. Insolvent Canadians per StatsCan (also includes those having filed proposals for insolvency):
July 2016: 128,447
July 2015: 124,534
Total Canadian Households: 13,320,615 as of 2011.
1% insolvent households using 2016 and 2011 numbers (worst case since there ought to be more households in 2016).
0.354% insolvent based on total population.
Enough said.
bsant54
Reading Comments today from people falling over themselves praising a fallen billionaire.
Is that pity or aspiring avarice?
I believed that Smoking Man actually did exist but I expected him to be older and fatter. I also expected him to be better dressed.
Are you sure that this is actually Smoking Man Garth and not some doomer/fatalist bent on publicity. How do we know this is the real thing?
I feel disappointed.
Smoking Man Revealed!
The fantasy is over. How disappointing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RQxD4Ff7dY
Singapore Home Prices Slide by Most in More Than Seven Years
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-03/singapore-home-prices-have-biggest-drop-in-more-than-seven-years
Funny he looks pretty much like I imagined.
Well – I leave for Uruguay and all hell breaks loose… ;-)
Is Smoking Man wearing a t-shirt with himself on it? How appropriate! ;-)
Breaking: Trudeau government to close foreign-buyers loophole
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/trudeau-government-to-close-foreign-buyers-loophole/article32204922/
The Feds have been trying for quite a while to engineer a soft landing for Canadian Real Estate.
But their timid measures had no impact on the most bubbly markets so it’s fair to say what happened elsewhere is not their doing. Whatever the feds did was ineffective period.
Goes to show how difficult it is to control markets. It’s all about emotions and psychology and that’s why the «Chinese tax» had so much impact in Vancouver and I would guess the size of that impact was not fully anticipated by the politicians and civil servants that made that decision ,they might have a bona fide crash on their hands and that’s the last thing the feds want for Canada.
Seeing what’s happening in the west I wouldn’t be surprised if the Feds were too timid once again.
Just like I said before, too timid to seriously affect the market.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/trudeau-government-to-close-foreign-buyers-loophole/article32204922/comments/
These people are soooo afraid of a crash its exactly what they’ll get.
#21 Love My Kia on 10.02.16 at 6:41 pm
“Smokey you’re a PITA right winger but endearing at the same time.
Why can’t we all get along?”
Smoke never sets out to abrade anyone directly. He’s as colourful as they come, but underneath it all, a decent sort.
And 100% correct about herd behaviour.
Hmmmm.
$1.70 for a coffee and Canadians owe 170% of their annual income…….coincidence?
Smoking Man wearing a shirt with Smoking Man on it wearing a shirt of Smoking Man wearing a shirt of Smoking Man……………..
this is getting weird.
#89 james on 10.02.16 at 9:24 pm
“Ugh.
A ‘jump-the-shark’ moment for this blog?
Sycophancy.”
Killjoy. You’d be hard-pressed to find a better blog.
Garth, don’t ever invite this to the party.
Great short article on the corruption of US markets and how Wall Street runs US politics.
http://dailyreckoning.com/nomi-prins-jail-wells-fargo-ceo-john-stumpf/
Daily Reckoning? You read that? Seriously? Hope you wash up before coming here. — Garth
Garth…what do you think the odds are that the US loses its reserve currency status within the next 5 years, with the inclusion of the Yuan in the SDR?
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-sdr-is-poised-to-become-the-de-facto-global-reserve-currency-2016-9
Zero. — Garth
The office of the president (or prime minister) is merely a figurehead for the corporations that run the country. The deception begins right at the apex of the pyramid. Your real rulers have had centuries, probably millennia, in which to perfect their game unchallenged by the sheeple. Until now.
Exhibit A: Morono to release a proclamation of “closing a loophole”. What this really means is that a crash is imminent and the banking cartel and their economic servant middlemen need to save face with the sheeple who still actually believe that foreigners are responsible for the bubble; when in fact, the financial parasites are. The real domestic terrorists.
THE WAR IS FOR YOUR MIND
It looks like Morneau is going to try and get rid of foreign buyers. It is really about time. From the Globe article, foreign buyers can and do, buy real estate in cash or with 35% down and the bank will give them the rest, then pay no CDN taxes, benefit from all of Canada’s social services, health care, education, roads, infrastructure, social development, maybe even welfare while living in a multi-million dollar home, then when it comes time to sell, they sell tax free and bring their money back to their home country, while abusing every single tax payer in Canada.
If this doesn’t get you mad, I really don’t know what would…
I really have to wonder if the measures that the government implement will be enough though. So many realtors don’t even bother marketing to locals, they go straight to China, India, Russia, Brazil, etc Facebook/Social Media and post ads there for foreigners to come buy in Canada. Social Media makes it so easy to target an audience as well as long as you know the language or have access to Google Translate.
I’m sure there will be loopholes left open. I like what BC did with the 15% tax, but I think it should be more. 15% is way too little for what they get by buying a home here. They should charge the capital gains tax upfront.
All buyers, foreign or domestic, pay land transfer tax, closing costs, take out mortgages and pay interest to Canadian banks, pay property taxes, finance commissions to local realtors, foot utility bills etc. Your xenophobic rant is juvenile and incorrect. — Garth
Thanks Sir Garth for the GT/SM pic. Your creativity continues to amaze me!
PS reprint in black and white
More bad news from the Financial sector.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ing-to-cut-7000-jobs-in-cost-cutting-drive-2016-10-03
Nothing wrong with a crash. Get back up, get on. Builds character. Canada needs more character. Bob/Doug: GT/SM.
///////////////////////////////////////////////
#131 pBrasseur on 10.03.16 at 8:04 am
Just like I said before, too timid to seriously affect the market.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/trudeau-government-to-close-foreign-buyers-loophole/article32204922/comments/
These people are soooo afraid of a crash its exactly what they’ll get.
my heroes!
I would love to get together for a beer someday…
After I’m done with this gig
Enough SM already.
Can we get back to the regular scheduled programming.
Here is your news
-Ottawa will close a tax loophole that allows non-residents to buy homes and later claim a tax exemption on the sales, a government source said Sunday. The government plans to make sure the principal-residence exemption is only available to individuals who reside in Canada in the year the home is purchased.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/trudeau-government-to-close-foreign-buyers-loophole/article32204922/
I visited the General Store in Belfountain with my wife on September the 24th. From there we went to the Consevation Area for a hike.
Garth, we want to thank you for helping this piece of history to stay alive. We did our part as well, spent a $20 and drove an hour to get there. Worth it.
Yanniel.
#36 SunShowers on 10.02.16 at 6:58 pm
Not spending money is a big part of being wealthy. What use is millions of dollars if you piss it away in a few years on transient, material crap like MC Hammer and who knows how many other TV/Movie/Music stars?
——————————————————————
true.
BUT! truly, wealth is only good if used to further ones personal wants and needs and in knowing when to get off the treadmill.
Our plan is to be broke when we reach the age where we have to leave the house we live in due to not being able to maintain it by ourselves.
After that, who cares.
There is a big world out there and we plan to see as much of it as we can, before the “big send off”.
We have reached our personal financial goals thanks in large part to GT’s advice.
Soooooo, PARTY’S ON!
Thanks again Garth.
Finance Minister Bill Morneau will unveil Monday new measures aimed at slowing the flood of foreign money pouring into overheated housing markets like Vancouver and Toronto, a significant federal intervention in the sector.
Ottawa will close a tax loophole that allows non-residents to buy homes and later claim a tax exemption on the sales, a government source said Sunday. The government plans to make sure the principal-residence exemption is only available to individuals who reside in Canada in the year the home is purchased.
—————————————-
So in the last decade or two foreigners could buy in sponsored by CMHC and guaranteed rising market, then sell and get profit tax free out of the country indebting locals, contributing to additional over-heating?
And that minimum down payment thanks to the lax landing standards by the ‘prudent’ Canadian banks when it concerns foreigners (somehow Bill M. even managed to praise them for their behavior)?
Are these loans also CMHC insured?
Such a smelly piece of crap!
And they want to come after doctors, lawyers and professional corporations calling them tax evaders? While willing to listen and be advised by the Real Estate scumbags who are apparently trustworthy ?
Do you think these people can manage our tax money? They can not wipe out their behind themselves.
Smoking Man:
Is it true you were a really wealthy dude who lost it all or is that Garth’s sarcasm?
How did that happen? Would love to hear your story.
I can tell you of family members in London Ontario who lost millions upon million in wealth with a poor business decision. They couldn’t compete in manufacturing with China and just admitted it to themselves far too late.
40 years of work…poof!!!
They went from mansions and fancy cars to working at “Winners” and Pizza shops. Very sad actually.
RE: “A Victorian row house, just 15 feet wide, hit the Toronto market recently. Reno’d and flipped, it was listed for just under $1.4 million”
Wow that’s cheap. I bet it didn’t sell for that. They always list low now. We’ve been living in 12 feet wide since 2012, it’s fine. You don’t need a lot of elbow room when you have a long lot. It’s Toronto after all.
Prediction on the 11:15am announcement: No foreign buyers’ tax on Toronto real estate. “The situation is different here.”
Further prediction: Tightening of mortgage rules. Which will have no effect in a hot market, but hey they’re trying.
How many “foreigners” would want to own one of Toronto’s decrepit old Victorians anyway? These things are a local trophy. Anyone not from here would not understand why a 15 foot wide row house full of roaches and mice that was recently a rooming house and still smells of piss, would be a status symbol.
All buyers, foreign or domestic, pay land transfer tax, closing costs, take out mortgages and pay interest to Canadian banks, pay property taxes, finance commissions to local realtors, foot utility bills etc. Your xenophobic rant is juvenile and incorrect. — Garth
That’s nice, but what does it have do with the topic at hand?
Morneau finally closing the loophole on non-resident foreign buyers claimed the principal residence exemption on home sales is really quite embarrassing. I mean, I’m glad he’s doing it, but why didn’t the Conservatives do this 10 years ago?
Garth
Which guy was smoking man in that pic?
Garth is only telling half of the story regarding Joking Man visiting the store.
The real reason as you can tell by the corn husks on the post is that he was there to try out for the Scarecrow part in a Canadian version of the Wizard of Oz.
The new version features Garth as a Lion trying to shepherd as many people from going down the yellow brick road hence our title of the Wizard of Au(s).
Joking Man got the part of the Scarecrow,we travel around try to find him some truth serum for him and he warns people about fx risks.
I got the part of the Tinman and Garth’s Lion tries to give me the heart to get out of mutual funds and into ETFs as well as putting more of my net worth into the market.
All the other regulars are there,Garth’s wife Dorothy didn’t even have to audition to get the part of Dorothy and Bandit was the closest thing lying around that could match Tito.
In a few weeks after some more practice we will be performing at the Caledon Centre for Certifiable Performers or CCCP for short.
I must also give a shoutout to the costume designers who put the metal bucket on my head,although slightly uncomfortable I am grateful as it stops me from being able to smell Joking Mans putrid breath…
M42BC
Hey Garth
How did you verify that that was the SM and not an impostor…lots of ID theft around these days…do you guys have a secret handshake or something?
Wow! that photo is pretty awesome! Garth, looking trim! I never read much of the smoking mans rants, but he sure liked to Rant.
I really don’t think they barley audit anything, its not surprising that people just claimed to be canadian residents and bought and sold real estate here paying zero Tax, you know, paying Tax is for suckers! I wonder if it’ll have much effect on Calgary, we’re doing so well at the moment!
Don’t knock MC Hammer too hard. He’s likely contributing more than most on this blog!
http://www.oprah.com/oprahshow/Whatever-Happened-to-MC-Hammer
I thought the deal was this:
non resident sells house, his lawyer withholds 30% till foreigner files a tax return,
has that not been happening?
#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.03.16 at 8:15 am
Hmmmm.
$1.70 for a coffee and Canadians owe 170% of their annual income…….coincidence?
Smoking Man wearing a shirt with Smoking Man on it wearing a shirt of Smoking Man wearing a shirt of Smoking Man……………..
this is getting weird.
………………………………………………………………..
Too much Smoking man, now you’ve made the front page. We know he is an ex code smith from somewhere downtown, drinks like a lush, smokes relentlessly, lives at a Niagara Ont falls casino, wagers huge, has three sons, one divorced, one about to embark, nothing about the last one, a crazy assed scotch HAG for a wife, crazy in-laws that want to kill him, an old beat up ford pickup with a cracked windshield, live on the corner of James st and 39th st, is having a secret affair with Shirley and is an alien. Wow, now we have a certified photo! All we need now is a name? Inquiring minds want to know. Perhaps this is another Ryan or Doug slowly being introduced by Garth. We are in trouble if smoky becomes a moderator. Hey what the hell happened on Smokys post on #39 not one spelling error? Nah can’t be right.
The Selfie Smurf is back peddling on political promises faster than diharrea through my colon after a drunken midnight to Taco Time.
Junior Escariot , the Punk PM has lied more times to get into office than five Donald Trumps on crack. He’s sold Canadians a bitter bill of goods on dribbles of silver spit from a slimy Liberal tongue. He’s checking off the boxes of who he can screw.
The first to take bloody shekel were the climate change dillitants, aka , the millennial…fools all…a shocking basket of petulant fools to believe that jobs would materialize from windmill farms owned by Americans. Whoops, Mom can’t afford to put Pop Tarts in my lunch cause Wynette Libs jacked the power bill for my basement headquarters of the Hater Harper fan club.
Why waste time on the other fools who sucked up Trudeau bath water only to see him lie and break every ‘promise’ made to lie his way into power. Now that the unions have been paid off the rest of you can piss off.
For a minute there I thought Brad Lamb had showed up at the store to apologize.
It looks like a nothing announcement to me, which follows in the tradition of Mark Carney: Lots of whining and continue to “consult”. http://www.fin.gc.ca/n16/16-117-eng.asp
I could live in my Mom’s basement and be finance minister or Bank of Canada governor, too, except I only own pyjamas.
Did anyone notice the other little part of the announcement? Ouch.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ottawa-housing-tax-real-estate-1.3788725
Another change is that from now on, all insured mortgages must undergo a “stress test” that ensures a borrower’s ability to make their mortgage payments at a higher interest rate. Effectively, borrowers will be tested against their ability to pay their mortgage if actual rates were as high as the Bank of Canada’s conventional five-year mortgage rate, which is currently 4.64 per cent.
Looking at the Dep’t of Finance backgrounder on today’s announcement, I see an interesting gem: “To qualify for mortgage insurance, a homebuyer must have a GDS ratio no greater than 39 per cent and a TDS ratio no greater than 44 per cent. ”
CMHC’s previously acceptable ratios were 32% and 40% respectively – and are still what they’re using on their calculators.
Does this mean the gov’t has just “tightened up the lending process” by lowing the bar?
Victor V. I read the press release and well. If you own a home and have not sold. You have 2 weeks.
http://www.fin.gc.ca/n16/data/16-117_2-eng.asp
#156 Real Muskoka guy on 10.03.16 at 11:58 am
You must be new around here…
/////
“The Smoking Man Character I created has held your attention, you have loved him and hated him. Felt sorry for him and proud of him. Love, Pity and contempt on the same day. The Smoking Man Character is just a bloody Character.
Let’s be truthful.
Smoking Man a Un schooled man, travels the world making deals and millions, has done thousands of hookers, day trades, works as a dyslexic code smith on bay street, at the same time owns and runs two companies with 20 employees, while blogging on here every day drunk. Now is that not far fetched.
What are the odds?.”
and this part here is where it gets interesting
“My real name is Smith, I’m shy, I live in Oakville, been with the same woman my whole life, never cheated, I have two daughters; one is 7 the other is 10. I teach at a community college, creative writing. Blogging was a project we started 4 years ago, and have been evolving it.
Everything about the character my class created is a story, fiction, now the question, do you want us to kill Smoking Man and contribute as, Smith. Or do you want The Great Smoking Man.?
Personally I don’t smoke, drink, or gamble. I go to church and volunteer in our community”
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/11/18/fail-2/#comment-207685
#ThePlotThickens
“Zero.” — Garth
#FunnyYouShouldSayThat,Or… #That’sWhatTheySaid,Too… #Feelin’Lucky?…
https://youtu.be/ZCPlm-mQ9Kk
The devils always in the details……
That tax annoucnement was just for the plebes to feel good. Such a small % of homebuyers are foreign and out of those only a few actually excercise that loophole.
The big story is stress tests, no details on that though, limit availability of credit and the market drops, slick move by the FM.
Sounds great and everyone will support it whose against more prudent standards for banks? Lets see what the ratios are that must be meet to qualify, does it extend to Heloc”s?
#156 Real Muskoka guy on 10.03.16 at 11:58 am
#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.03.16 at 8:15 am
Hmmmm.
$1.70 for a coffee and Canadians owe 170% of their annual income…….coincidence?
Smoking Man wearing a shirt with Smoking Man on it wearing a shirt of Smoking Man wearing a shirt of Smoking Man……………..
this is getting weird.
………………………………………………………………..
Too much Smoking man, now you’ve made the front page. We know he is an ex code smith from somewhere downtown, drinks like a lush, smokes relentlessly, lives at a Niagara Ont falls casino, wagers huge, has three sons, one divorced, one about to embark, nothing about the last one, a crazy assed scotch HAG for a wife, crazy in-laws that want to kill him, an old beat up ford pickup with a cracked windshield, live on the corner of James st and 39th st, is having a secret affair with Shirley and is an alien. Wow, now we have a certified photo! All we need now is a name? Inquiring minds want to know. Perhaps this is another Ryan or Doug slowly being introduced by Garth. We are in trouble if smoky becomes a moderator. Hey what the hell happened on Smokys post on #39 not one spelling error? Nah can’t be right..
If you think that’s nuts, wait till read my pathetic book.
Well I’ve got a new poster for my wall.
The Twin Towers of Canadian Finance.
Garth’s incessant reminder of a balanced diversified liquid portfolio, and Smokey’s reminder that every now and then you gotta bet against the Herd.
It’s going to be an interesting winter.
The proportion of family houses of 1 million in Vancouver, Passed 19% in 2006 to 91% this year.
RBC Mortgage broker, Geoff Rathgaber sends alert to clients about Oct 17 rule change. Two weeks of panic coming up, me thinks.
https://twitter.com/AshleyTurnerC21/status/782994573886750720
(click on the image in the tweet to read in full)
#162 Bat Flipper
Pass the popcorn.
Who cars bout the loophole the real story is the stress test , new buyers are the lifeblood of the market with out newbies qualifying for the inflated prices it’s over. 604 is already quiet. Gona be Alota realtors workin @ Starbucks now
Didn’t seem like much of an announcement Mr Morneau…..what I heard was, you were going to ensure that CRA does what they should be doing anyways, and that for people with less than 20% down, their borrowing will be stress tested at a higher rate or standard…wasn’t that already being done in a way by having them have to qualify at a 5yr rate?
#163 NoName on 10.03.16 at 12:55 pm
#156 Real Muskoka guy on 10.03.16 at 11:58 am
You must be new around here…
/////
“The Smoking Man Character I created has held your attention, you have loved him and hated him. Felt sorry for him and proud of him. Love, Pity and contempt on the same day. The Smoking Man Character is just a bloody Character.
Let’s be truthful.
Smoking Man a Un schooled man, travels the world making deals and millions, has done thousands of hookers, day trades, works as a dyslexic code smith on bay street, at the same time owns and runs two companies with 20 employees, while blogging on here every day drunk. Now is that not far fetched.
What are the odds?.”
and this part here is where it gets interesting
“My real name is Smith, I’m shy, I live in Oakville, been with the same woman my whole life, never cheated, I have two daughters; one is 7 the other is 10. I teach at a community college, creative writing. Blogging was a project we started 4 years ago, and have been evolving it.
Everything about the character my class created is a story, fiction, now the question, do you want us to kill Smoking Man and contribute as, Smith. Or do you want The Great Smoking Man.?
Personally I don’t smoke, drink, or gamble. I go to church and volunteer in our community”
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/11/18/fail-2/#comment-207685
#ThePlotThickens
..
Double lies on top of a third lie
It’s actually not that hard to find out who the real SM is… the electrical universe knows who is jimmy boy.
Canadian Revenue Agency over a potential $2.2-billion tax bill.
At question is whether Saskatoon-based Cameco Corp. set up a subsidiary in low-tax Switzerland and sold it uranium at a low price simply to avoid tax, as the CRA contends. Cameco maintains it was a legal and sound business practice.
For the uranium producer the case presents a serious risk of impact to its bottom line, as the CRA looks to shift an estimated $7.4 billion in foreign earnings between 2003 and 2015 back to Canada (cbc)
#139 Thanks on 10.03.16 at 9:24 am
Thanks Sir Garth for the GT/SM pic. Your creativity continues to amaze me!
PS reprint in black and white
/////////////////////////
Nope, he don’t look any better…
M42BC
http://imgur.com/a/f24i1
Monday: Yo Garth, if an old wrinklie homeowners ends up in a long term care facility, and no longer lives in their owned home, does the long term care facility become their principal residence and their long, lived in home become the secondary residence and taxed accordingly upon its eventual sale before and/ after they die? Thanks in advance for any feedback.
Their home remains the PR. — Garth
Yawn….
Another federal measure meant to give the appearance of doing something while actually doing nothing.
Enforcing something that should have already been enforced (principle residence exemption) and re-announcing something the banks were already supposed to be doing for the last several years following a similar federal announcement (qualifying at a higher rate).
Another 6 months wasted renting hoping that the feds would do something meaningful. It is clear there is no appetite to do anything with an impact.
Oh, and lets not forget that in Vancouver, prices for townhouses and condos have gone up and inventory is being swallowed up – according to Yatter matters site.
So 2 months into the foreign buyer’s tax and the Mexican standoff is still in place. Another month of sellers not blinking, and and the sideline renters and buyers will be back and the psychological impact of the buyer’s tax will be gone. Prices resume their upward trend.
Meanwhile, the 0% vacancy rate for rentals in the hottest markets and spiking rents means the days of landlords subsidizing renters is over. The landlords are finally making nice returns.
And if the market ever turns, there will be even more pressure on vacancy rates and rents, as those cashing out and not wanting to catch a falling knife, and those being forced to sell that need a place to live, will compete with the existing pool of renters.
That means renting while prices fall may be the equivalent to buying and losing 20%in your own house – a complete wash when you do the math.
My guess is that since the long term care resident now votes at the long term care place and not at their still owned home, the LTC joint is theirprimary residence. If so, oldies should maybe be proactive, no matter how good their cash flow, and go straight out of the sale of the biggish empty nest into a rental. Consult an estate lawyer, accountant and advisor and on paper be broke as a church mouse. Awaiting your wisdom.
Wow. That was fast! Thanks.
Considering that RE prices have been stagnating/falling for the better part of the past 3 years, including in Toronto/Vancouver, basically today’s “non-response” by the Federal government is probably ‘correct’ as far as I’m concerned. The real unfortunate part is that there was no attempt at coordination with provincially regulated banking counterparts.
If the banks are going to be put at risk on existing mortgage insurance, expect interest rates the banks actually charge (as spread) to increase significantly. And for the OSFI to take regulatory action accordingly to reflect the riskier nature of these instruments.
#163 NoName on 10.03.16 at 12:55 pm
#156 Real Muskoka guy on 10.03.16 at 11:58 am
You must be new around here…
/////
……………………………………………………………
No not new at all, long time reader, just don’t comment much. I like to savor all the tasty tidbits of knowledge that I may acquire from various entities. Living in the nether regions of Muskoka makes us languish for anything that represents news. Just recalled that Smoking Man has a supposed mansion cottage on my lake with a $15K deck.
#163 NoName on 10.03.16 at 12:55 pm
Ah, there we have it….
I will take Smith from Oakville, please.
Real Life is interesting enough as it is.
So which Creative Writing Class is Mark taking, then?
Uh oh, it looks like the ‘new’ stress test rules kick in in a few weeks. You can now count on at least another 4 months of price increases if not steady sales as buyers rush out to secure mortgages.
Remember Trudeau’s new down payment rules – instead of cooling the market, it created a firestorm. Same thing is going to happen here.
Its going to be the same for the next 4 months. The happy dance that the market is correcting has to be postponed – sorry renters.
“Their home remains the PR. — Garth”
Even if the long-term care or assisted living unit was purchased on a ‘condo’ basis by the “old wrinklie homeowner”, rather than merely rented?
(seeing this happen a lot more these days…especially for assisted living!)
Obviously not. — Garth
“Overall, I believe the housing market is sound but as Minister of Finance I want to make sure we are proactive in assessing and addressing the factors that could lead to excess risk”
– Finance Minister Morneau
The operative words being “sound” and “could”.
The “Deep Dive” outcome? Nothing to see here, folks.
Garth and Smoky look like and X-Files….episode. Solved another deep and disturbing mystery…..Smug!!! Back to the wilderness I go.
Daily Reckoning? You read that? Seriously? Hope you wash up before coming here. — Garth
*******************************************
Really? Aren’t you showing your bias here? The article was written by Nomi Prins. According to Wikipedia…”Nomi Prins is an American author, journalist, and Senior Fellow at Demos.[1] She has worked as a managing director at Goldman-Sachs and as a Senior Managing Director at Bear Stearns, as well as having worked as a senior strategist at Lehman Brothers and analyst at the Chase Manhattan Bank. Prins is known for her book All the Presidents’ Bankers in which she explores over a century of close relationships between the 19 Presidents from Teddy Roosevelt through Barack Obama and the key bankers of their day based on original archival documents. Prins also received recognition for her whistleblower book, It Takes a Pillage: Behind the Bonuses, Bailouts, and Backroom Deals from Washington to Wall Street, for her views on the U.S. economy,[2][3][4] for her published spending figures on federal programs and initiatives related to the 2008 bailout,[5] and for her advocacy for the reinstatement of the Glass–Steagall Act and regulatory reform of the financial industry.”
I guess she didn’t sell as many books as you did?
Nice deke. But my reference was to the site, which sucks hard. — Garth
Crickets…..guaranteed crickets….
Insured mortgage changes are a nuclear bomb to the first time buyers….
Great pic, the only pic missing is Smoking Man on the treadmill with a smoke in one hand and a JD in the other; ha, love it!
Meanwhile, T2 has just implemented step two of what his father did, god help us all…
“Foreigners are likely small in number, but arguably significant in impact,” says RBC. “Although it is likely that ‘foreigners’ do not comprise a significant percentage of home sales, they are arguably the marginal buyer…for those buying in the high end of the market.”
southside johnny’s#182 Bram on 10.03.16 at 2:56 pm
#163 NoName on 10.03.16 at 12:55 pm
Ah, there we have it….
I will take Smith from Oakville, please.
Real Life is interesting enough as it is.
So which Creative Writing Class is Mark taking, then?
………………..
Rumor has it he studied under DR Roboto.
Well, now that the world knows what I look like, If your ever in Shlong Branch. Feel like a Beer, @SmokingMan on Twitter. Southside Johnny’s is a two-minute walk.
SM doesn’t look too bad…from a distance. With the amount of smoking and drinking he claims, I had pictured something else.
Its going to be the same for the next 4 months. The happy dance that the market is correcting has to be postponed – sorry renters
Unfortunately I agree. Prices to continue rising in overheated markets of Toronto and Vancouver
Let’s see what the new year brings
Lie after lie after lie .
So it was not tax loophole after all. Simply banks (the most prudent blah, blah, blah..?) real estate agents and CRA did not do their job to track purchases and sales by foreign citizens (non-residents) and now they can not tax them as they have no information to apply this tax retroactively!
Bravo!
This means a person who needs CMHC now qualifies for 25% less than they did yesterday. It is the equivalent of a 2.4% increase in mortgage rates virtually over night for a first time buyer and some move up buyers. That is a massive change. The top half of the market got it from the 15% tax, now the bottom half is getting it. There is no other possible outcome than a massive crash. We could be down 50% in YVR by end of next year.
This is more than just CMHC mortgages. This pretty much impacts everything but private lenders and maybe some credit unions.
So he’s the Smoking Man we’ve seen posting here with frightening regularity. Not at all as I pictured him. Rather, I imagined him looking like the Smoking Man character on X Files, more specifically this guy: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0205657/?ref_=tt_cl_t4
#182 Bram on 10.03.16 at 2:56 pm says… ”
#163 NoName on 10.03.16 at 12:55 pm
Ah, there we have it….
I will take Smith from Oakville, please.
Real Life is interesting enough as it is.
So which Creative Writing Class is Mark taking, then?”
Mark’s persona is a creation of an AI which demonstrates that we haven’t hit the singularity yet!”. ;-)
The bet of the decade.
Nov 8….MSM will tell you it’s to close to call between Trump and Hillary be alot of cheating in the polls favoring Hillary won’t do Jack.
Bernie supporters not voting or going with green party.
Now the big hedge funds, banks, establishment enterprise will belive the Bull Shit that MSM sells and there schooled economist putting a spring into you bet.
Look at the size of Trump Rallys vs Hillary.
Tweets.
Understand culture. Who in their right mind at the office water cooler will openly say they support a
Homophobe
Masyginist
Phob Phob Phob. Deplorable.
Now in the little election booth with the curtains drawn. It’s going to be the wild west of Trump
LONG USDMEX
You don’t need to bet the farm for this one for a hit out of the ball park my dogs.
Don’t go crazy. The machine always finds a away but I’m thinking they don’t know what to do.
Bet Accordingly.