All the wrinklies, thirsty underwear aficionados, and generally old farts who read this pathetic blog hate central bankers. No wonder. Bonds pay diddly. High-interest savings accounts aren’t. GICs are a joke. And when you add in Canada’s punitive taxation of interest (100% of it is added to your income and pillaged), plus inflation, saving’s a bust. A generation ago retirees clipped coupons and wintered in Florida or Arizona. Now they stay home and moan. (What do you call three crusty boomers in the basement? A whine cellar.)
But the same central bankers who’ve forced rates into the ditch have pushed mortgage costs down with them. It looks like the Millennials are net beneficiaries, gobbling real estate, onboarding debt and in the process inflating houses as never before.
Despite all the moister-bashing that takes place on this site, it’s not hard to understand why house porn has become such a fav of the selfie set. Unschooled in finance, ignorant of most liquid assets (except beer) and deeply suspicious of the markets, they’ve opted for the one thing that worked for mom & dad. They also look around and see house prices marching higher, debt costs barely above inflation, and figure what’s gone up has a good chance of going up more. So they bite.
Media excess helps. Like the story of a Van ‘student’ who made a $1.6 million profit flipping a Westside mansion. The rewards are exaggerated, and the risks diminished. The result is a concentration of wealth in residential real estate as we have never seen it before. At the same time, we have record levels of debt (now 170% of disposable income, on average). Starter semis in Toronto cost a mill.
(By the way, the common practice now for any new offering in Toronto is for the listing agent to hold off offers until a certain day and time, at which a blind auction occurs among bidders. Nobody can submit an offer without a certified cheque being attached – usually for $100,000 or so. Once offers are opened the top bidders are sent back to their waiting cars to ‘do their best’ without knowing what they are competing against, while the salivating vendors wait inside at the kitchen table. It’s all nauseating, and all too common.)
Back to the central bankers, for a minute, who are encouraging this highly speculative, risk-drenched behaviour. Having failed at stimulating sustainable, robust economic growth, monetary policy is now focused on slashing rates to the point of actually being negative, while stimulating economies through direct payments. Governments are also into the act, plying taxpayers with their own cash in hopes of a revival. That’s exactly why the T2 gang has started sending out unheard amounts of cash to people with kids, tax-free. It’s a wild gamble that debt can turn into growth.
Given that attitude, how can you blame the damp ones for aping it? And this is what many people find so worrisome. There are many reasons why having so much concentrated in one thing, so susceptible to change, constitutes danger. Besides, if owning real estate was such a great way to make money, why are Canadians (with 70% home ownership) in such dismal shape?
Our debt-to-income ratio (170%) is significantly higher than that of American households (132%) and has even shot higher than theirs was just before real estate crashed and burned (160%). We’re now snorfling new debt at a rate four times faster than the growth in incomes.
And did you see that survey this week? It found 56% of Canadians are $200 or less per month away from being unable to meet their debt. Half of us actually don’t care. And also a third of people are currently not paying their bills on time, making them technically insolvent. Add that to all of the other shocking factoids you’re read here – half of people unable to survive a single paycheque being late a single week, for example – and you can see the problem.
If anything goes wrong, we’re screwed. And at the top of the screwee list are the kids with big debts, little equity and nascent careers. Says the outfit behind these latest stats: “Many households have come to rely on cheap credit in order to cover expenses but we can’t continue to be comfortable taking on more credit to finance a lifestyle we can’t afford…“With so many already feeling unable to cover their bills and debts, there is tremendous vulnerability to any kind of economic shock – the loss of a job, an emergency, a divorce, even things like a reduction in overtime pay or bonuses – and especially an increase in interest rates.”
But not a day goes by without the Illuminati coming here to tell us rates will never rise. At least not until December 14th.
Well, the OPEC deal this week boosted oil, fueled the loonie and helps ensure the Bank of Canada is done with its rate cutting. This is the bottom. Which probably means houses are at the top.
If you see your daughter with an Agreement of Purchase and Sale sticking out of her bag, get her a pony instead.
138 comments ↓
There has never been FREE Market Capitalism ever
“This is the bottom”
That’s a pretty bold statement.
The Fed will not raise in December and the Bank of Canada will not raise rates for all of 2017.
This is now a national sickness. It’s impossible to discuss houses (in 905 or 519) and suggest it might not be the greatest idea to buy without deeply offending someone. This goes beyond “I told you so” (I’m a renter). Otherwise intelligent people are losing their marbles for, er, marble and other accountrements that are worth nothing in the long run. How many marriages and families have been, or will be, ruined by house lust and the stress brought on by spending too much money they don’t have, or buying crappy new builds that need to be repaired before being livable? Sadly, there’s only one cure for this disease, and it’ll be painful for all of us, even those who don’t “own”.
Ban processed cheese.
Make America grate again.
M42BC
* Not my joke but I like it.
Seriously, please cite your sources when quoting someone.
Seriously, I’m not your librarian. Besides it’s faster to make the quotes up. — Garth
“Well, the OPEC deal this week boosted oil, fueled the loonie and helps ensure the Bank of Canada is done with its rate cutting. This is the bottom. “
Have to disagree here. Oil and gas investment isn’t coming back in any significant way until we’re well north of $70/barrel. Probably $100+/barrel before there’s any interest in drawing up new plans for oilsands projects. Any gains at this point will accrue entirely to shareholders who are not the people who generally drive a lot of demand in the Canadian economy. Those laid-off O&G office workers in Calgary or the oilsands construction people are not going to be recalled anytime soon, if at all. In many cases, the industry will get lean and mean, and learn to live without so many of the excess workers it employed.
If anything, a rising CAD$, as well as the general deflationary trend in the Canadian economy due to over-indebtedness implies further rate cuts. Eventually all the way down to zero. The Bank of Canada probably won’t act until the CAD$ is in the $1.2 range, give or take, with another policy rate cut. But once the CAD$ starts surging, its basically the “all-clear” for the BoC to make the much needed additional cuts.
As the article yesterday pointed out, the bankers are ready and willing to raise rates against specific types of collateral in response to weakening credit conditions. For instance, the banker in question mentioned that higher risk credit to the housing sector was in the process of becoming significantly more expensive. This extra spread, of course, will appear on the banks’ bottom lines.
“That’s exactly why the T2 gang has started sending out unheard amounts of cash to people with kids, tax-free”
Those cheques are nothing compared to what T2 (and his predecessors) send to Canada’s elderly every month. With GIS, OAS, healthcare, (CPP payments at least come from an actual asset base, the rest comes straight out of taxes!), etc. Why pick on kids specifically?
OPEC deal? Really?
Let’s see the reality in November when the members actually have to make a decision, ACT and cut. Does anyone in the universe think Iran is going to cut production? Just more false BS signs much like the FED raising rates… And people wonder why the general public has lost faith and trust in governments…
Housing have to be at the top. This HAS to be peak debt.
What is going to be the teenie weenie insignificant final straw that finally sets off the fireworks?
I have $200 at 35% interest if anyone needs it…
The bottom “might” be when loonies drops another 4 cents or more – the bottom might be the the crash of China’s economy – the bottom might be oil at $30 – the bottom might T2 shirtless just one more time – then again the end of the European Union might be the bottom
Rage against the machine
And since there a lot of the old farts have little or no debt and the 170% ratio is an average, and many young adults are still living in mom’s basement also carrying little or no debt, there must be a bunch of people in the middle with way more that 170% debt to income. I’m thinking some of it isn’t going to get paid back….
I’ve heard stories of people in Vancouver spending basically all of their take home pay on the mortgage and relying on home equity loans (which they can when prices are rising 30% per year) to get by. Crazy. If the music stops there is going to be trouble.
But yet I think the music has to stop at some point. Can a Vancouver crack shack worth $1,000,000 today really be worth $10,000,000 in ten years time? That’s where it will be if the price increase rate remains 30%. At some point this thing runs out of gas even if rates don’t ever rise again. As the old saying goes, “even a tree does not grow to the sky”.
That’s exactly why the T2 gang has started sending out unheard amounts of cash to people with kids, tax-free. – Garth
I can confirm this and it’s the lowest of income that benefits the most. I work with income support benefits. A few days ago I had a family of 7 (5 kids, 2 adults) applying for income support.
The Child Tax credit worked out to $2800 a month. This credit doesn’t count as income, so they were getting an additional $1800 in Income Support benefits. $4600 a month total (untaxed). How much employment income would it take to make $4600? I’m guessing $6000 before taxes
I mean this is an extreme example (large family) but still I see it all the time … Families of 3 and 4 (single mom 2 – 3 kids or 2 adults/2 kids living comfortably on their Child Tax Credit plus income support benefits. Get a doctors note claiming anxiety or depression and boom you don’t have to work at all. Plus new mothers get 1 year of having no expectation under Income Support to work (3 years in BC). Just keep on making babies and watch the $$ roll in.
It’s patently unfair.
Smoking Man
Mexican paso is going to get crushed. 5g bet at 400 to 1 margin will make you a millionare over night on Nov 8th
—
Where can you do 400 to 1 margin in Canada?
3 coworkers and 2 friends living pay cheque to pay cheque or skipping bills to pay other bills….technically insolvent……….
But they buy their lunches, smoke a pack a day and buy new shoes/clothes to make themselves feel ‘better”
This will not end well.
… rates will never rise. At least not until December 14th…
…fueled the loonie and helps ensure the Bank of Canada is done with its rate cutting. This is the bottom. Which probably means houses are at the top…
=====================================
I’ll believe it when I see it, and even if so, so what .25?
And I hope so too but the gut gurgles ‘probably not’.
I just realized that the Fed is having its next meeting on my wedding anniversary.
I’m pretty sure that they met on the same day last year as well.
I dunno if watching Janet Yellen twiddling with some knobs and attempting to move something up or down is going to get me in the mood for much.
You know what they say… desperate times , desperate measures…
M42BC
Yes. Intervention. Great title.
Majority have chosen a life of debt slavery. Among many other forms of slavery available. All of them being either physically, mentally, emotionally, or financially life draining/ruining. Often, it is all of them.
However, for myself, I pay nothing for anything set up to harm me in any way. It is called personal responsibility. Because……………if I were to end up in a bad place in any way, the only one blamed, would be me. All Profiteers get a pass. Which is ok by me, as I live by my rules.
Freedom is so under rated. I love it.
007
Freedom First
PHD/Freedomonics
why always pickin on millenials garth?
how bout all the boomers with a boat, rv, maxed out heloc and no pension? millenials bought condos the boomers upgraded from bungs to mcmansions everrrrryone is all in, not just the tweeters
Best entry ever Garth. Thanks.
“….If you see your daughter with an Agreement of Purchase and Sale sticking out of her bag, get her a pony instead…….”
_________________________
Too late, and in Calgary of all places (so many ponies to choose from).
Her rEalTor (no prospectus legally required) told her not to worry, as rEal eStaTe always rises in value. My daughter’s too young to remember the Calgary busts of the 80’s and 90’s.
I feel like such a parental failure.
You are a mean one Mr. Garth!
For all you central bank critics, try your hand at the job! The San Francisco Fed released the following game:
http://sffed-education.org/chairthefed/default.html
Let us know if you get reappointed, LOL.
I really hope interest rates rise.
The masses are acting like professional athletes. Not the Micheal Jordan’s who make so much money they can’t go broke. I’m talking about the guys making 2-5 million a year but living like they’ll play forever. When the realization kicks in that they have zero net worth and are 30, with only a couple more years to play, they get desperate and that’s when the fun begins. It’s sad that most people spend their hard earned money on junk that ends up in the landfill.
I had a wtf moment in my life. I was having dinner with my family and the conversation happened to be how many tvs we have. It was 9, only 4 people living in the home. Think about that for a second that’s more than 2 tvs per person. What a waste, look around and count how much money you’ve spend on stuff you don’t need!
170% debt to income ratio is perilous for sure Garth.
But don’t worry! We have T2 and he promised legal weed.
On a less vapid note note I’m back in Vancouver for a visit and amazed that there are actually “For Sale” signs that are gathering a bit of dust. I remember the days when they were stuck into the lot with a SOLD sticker already on them.
Wonder how YVR realtors are doing. I’m sure being responsible people they have saved a lot of their large incomes these past few years and put them in a carefully balanced portfolio to ride out any market correction.
Completely unnecessary of course because in Vancouver real estate only ever goes up! It’s always good to be cautious though. Helps one sleep at night.
Rates will not rise in December (or in March or at all in 2017).
Sincerely,
The Illuminati
lots of infill and condo highrises going up in waterfront burlington 905. Fending off builders lowball offers. Actually got some reasonable intel from a certain royal brokerage that my listing could easily sell without using them “I shouldn’t say this but you can manage this without a middleman”. I was impressed by the lack of greed and forthrightness of the guy.
Just waiting on the hearing….hope the market doesn’t freeze up before I can cash out. there is a real illusion of wealth in this city; overheard a guy on his phone in his Mercedes suv arguing with credit card company re missing payments.
onf51
our hydo bills always came between 360 and and 480, in our 11 yrs that we live here.
some bills came in today, one of them was hydro bill totaling 690+ CAD.
This bill made me look like genioos today for getting rid of the hot tub last year.
Wow. First?
I don’t buy that o’peckers deal. Those sharks would sell their mothers into slavery. What are the chances that they all stick to their agreed upon quotas? Zero I would say.
They appear to have learned the art of jawboning from Janet Yellen. Talk the good talk. Watch the markets react. Reap the rewards. Zero pain.
Just started reading Alex Avery’s new book “The Wealthy Renter”. Should be a decent read; he’s the real estate analyst at CiBC World Markets.
The story of the day is definitely oil. What ever deal the U.S. made with the house of Saud to give away oil till US corporate balance sheets could recover from the financial crisis must be ending when the presidency changes.Should see new highs in oil soon along with normalized interest rates.This is getting really interesting.
First of all Mr. Turner – thank you for the wealth of information that has been accumulated at this Web domain. You are a force de nature.
But with all due respect, I wanted to go on record to politely disagree with your opinion that the FED will raise rates. After all, not only are consumers across the globe snorfled in debt, but also are many corporations too. A rate raise will make it very difficult for many (people and corps) to service their debt. Thanks!
Garth – I sold my moldy 1960’s single family home in yvr last November – initially I was worried Id made a terrible mistake. Now I’m feeling much better about my decision; the wife and I are debt free and sitting on maxed out TFSA’s, RRSP’s and a sizable amount in the bank. I’m opening a non-registered account – should I go all in on preferreds?
All my Canadian friends *claiming* six figure salaries and how “well” they’re paid. Really? Then how come every one of them lives literally hand-to-mouth on a monthly basis without ANY kind of ability to save for their families? The CAD is super over valued, relative to global reserve currencies. That’s gonna crash too (even more than it already has).
“But not a day goes by without the Illuminati coming here to tell us rates will never rise.” – Garth
———————————————————-
What about the non-illuminati that keep telling us rates will rise and they never do?
Our daughter and son-in-law are looking at buying their first home. She came to me (I am a REALTOR®) and asked;
“When do you think would be the best time to buy?”
I replied;
“Sweetie (because she is), I want absolutely nothing but the very best for you and if there was ANY WAY POSSIBLE for me to be able to figure out when the peaks and valleys of the market might occur, rest assured, you would be the very first to know. Take solace in knowing your mother and I bought our first home in an overheated peak market (1981) and have never regretted that decision for one moment since. Our home is now bought and paid for and should serve us well long into the future. Buy well, buy within your means and enjoy home.”
#32 Geezie Yes,it is a very good bet.
Is that a Mensa horse?
I sat watching the shitpump tonight. Commercials roll around. Some loan company. 47% APR. “47% APR!!!?!!!” I exclaim.
Mrs Skunk, sitting beside me: “What’s APR?”
There you have it ladies and gentlemen. A product of the Ontario Liberal Education Generation.
Next commercial rolls around – a self-gratifying ad from – yup, the Ontario Liberals, yet again wasting my money to pat themselves on the back about what a great job they and the teachers are doing (while most Gr6 are failing at math, I add).
You couldn’t make this up.
If anything goes wrong, we’re screwed. And at the top of the screwee list are the kids with big debts, little equity and nascent careers.
nascent: beginning to exist : recently formed or developed
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/nascent
Realtors must be getting desperate. I’ve never had a cold call before but now it seems that people from Vancouver are here in Victoria and they are impressed with the houses on my street and are just waiting to buy one. Who knew?
Considering that I’m renting they must have a magic stick to sell my house.
OPEC is a smoke and mirrors show.
What is their real motivation, or is it tied to the US election.
Hmmmm.
Can you post a link to that survey. I missed it. Thanks
#17 westvan
why always pickin on millenials garth?
All the wrinklies, thirsty underwear aficionados, and generally old farts – Garth.
Come on Westvan, Garth references his own demographics on a continual basis, as quoted above!
#11 Carlyle on 09.28.16 at 7:04 pm
40.25 an hour works that sum after cpp and ei is paid.
Potential gas pipeline to tidewater announcement today.
When Canada exports all that LNG, will we be adding a carbon tax to those exports to fight global warming, or will only Canadians have to pay those carbon taxes?
I don’t want to see Canadians further disadvantaged in the global economy by the sale of their own resources to others who do not have carbon taxes.
Here’s the news item on the survey for the lazy bastards.
http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/canadians-are-just-200-away-from-being-overwhelmed-by-debt-new-survey-finds&pubdate=2016-09-28
How could anyone watch Janet Yellen today and think she is anything other than a dithering, in over her head liar who has absolutely no clue of the destruction her short-sighted policies are about to deliver?
The just of her appearance seems to be interest rates could rise at some point this year, just not last week. Of course it’s a far cry from the four hikes we were told to expect in January. Or the two hikes her right hand man Stanley Fischer said were likely this year just one month ago at Jackson Hole.
And despite the tone of today’s post, you can find ample Garth posts praising the “really smart people” at the Fed, who saved us from financial calamity and delivered “seven years of strongly positive returns.” That he, or anyone else here still believes them is truly astonishing.
Still and all, they do. And so when December comes without a rate hike we’ll be told to get our house in order for a hike in March.
At some point it will become clear, even to the “America is BOOMING” crowd that the Fed’s next move will be a rate cut. The double-talk and excuse making will be a thing of beauty.
#20 fed game….keep pushing go and keep the rate at 4%. Worked for me and I am re-appointed chair of the fed reserve.
#12 Mexican peso on 09.28.16 at 7:08 pm
Smoking Man
Mexican paso is going to get crushed. 5g bet at 400 to 1 margin will make you a millionaire overnight on Nov 8th
—
Where can you do 400 to 1 margin in Canada?
…………………
http://www.AvaTrade.com
Your playing with fire if you don’t know what you’re doing. 99.9 percent who dabble in FX with this kind of leverage get crushed. Take what you spend on lottery tickets and have fun.
Disclaimer. I’m a liar, on here, I don’t trade anything, I’m a drunk, my world is fantasy, if you listen to me it’s at your own perel, if lose everything can’t say I didn’t warn you.
http://globalnews.ca/news/2968607/new-numbers-show-multi-million-dollar-homes-in-vancouver-bought-by-low-income-buyers/
Not sure which scam I’m getting more tired of…
-The Fed’s threat to raise rates….or
-These phony OPEC agreements
#22 I’m stupid on 09.28.16 at 7:38 pm
—————–
I have only one TV. 40″ Samsung 720p Plazma from 2006. I love it! I also paid too much money for it. $1,400.00, so I told myself I would keep it for a long time. I have no desire to get 1080p or 4K. Buy what you need. We are such a spoiled nation. So much opportunity to pay off our debt and live within our means. No reason why we all can’t retire at 50. But the heart wants what the neighbours want.
I have a rule at the store. When I pick up a piece of junk, I stare at it and ask myself 1) Is this thing going to break? 2) Can it wait? 3) Is it cheaper somewhere else? 4) Will it likely go on sale? If the answer is yes to any of these questions, I put it back.
If the Bank of Mom and Dad is there to provide a dp for a mortgage, it stands to reason they will also be there to prop up an errant HELOC or c/c, or a missed mortgage payment. Hence no need to worry about a late paycheque.
Ava Trade Margins.
DO NOT EVER TRADE THE RUBAL
http://www.avatrade.com/trading-info/trading-conditions
Speaking of Central Banks…
http://www.nomiprins.com/thoughts/2016/9/28/the-central-bank-power-shift-from-west-to-east-game-of-thron.html
If you want to sleep well tonight go watch this short video about debt visualized.
http://money.visualcapitalist.com/much-money-humans-created/
Sweet dreams…
Garth, which survey are you talking about?
We set out this day In the boat named for my mother Its been harsh and scarce and cruel John Price drowned and slipped away I will go to sea no more My God I cried that boat was like no other and named her for my mother That I may not be forsaken
Let us know if you get reappointed, LOL.
More fun setting up and playing Paul Volcker.
I tried that Chair the Fed game, but where were the QE and negative rate options?
Smoking Man
Your playing with fire if you don’t know what you’re doing. 99.9 percent who dabble in FX with this kind of leverage get crushed. Take what you spend on lottery tickets and have fun.
Disclaimer. I’m a liar, on here, I don’t trade anything, I’m a drunk, my world is fantasy, if you listen to me it’s at your own perel, if lose everything can’t say I didn’t warn you.
—-
Looks like it’s true lie: One can trade 400:1 in Canada.
Lottery jackpot bids have less than 99.9% chance.
Thanks.
#20 fed game….keep pushing go and keep the rate at 4%. Worked for me and I am re-appointed chair of the fed reserve.
Tried same. Got 10% unemployment and -3% inflation. So, mileage may vary.
#2…Jimmy,
“This is the bottom”
That’s a pretty bold statement.
******************************************
It has been said before.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/canadians-are-just-200-away-from-being-overwhelmed-by-debt-new-survey-finds
Seriously, please cite your sources when quoting someone.
Seriously, I’m not your librarian. Besides it’s faster to make the quotes up. — Garth
It’s pretty easy. Try this:
1) Highlight the text in the article (for example, “With so many already feeling unable to cover their bills and debts, there is tremendous vulnerability to any kind of economic shock”. The more specific text the better.
2) Paste text from into Google search.
3) Click on the top result(s):
http://bit.ly/2d8kpDH
http://bit.ly/2dfdKEh
4) Stay out of debt.
Debt today is no big deal.My friend declared bankruptcy for over $100,000 and 2 years later he got a credit card.
To buy a house and rent it out there is no cash flow so to me that this asset is way over valued and a very stupid that only benefits the bank and the government.This country a socialist country on acid.The piper will be paid one day and there will be a weeping and gnashing of teeth.Good luck to the debt ridden home owners.
There is still a 2/5 chance the bank of canada will cut rates, especially if poor economic keeps rolling in.
I wouldn’t write it off yet unless we see a positive turn around with inflation, trade and employment numbers.
Smokey,
Can I copy trade you on Nov 8th, my $5k, our 50/50 gain if Trump destroys the Peso.
Deal?
#1 Randy on 09.28.16 at 6:42 pm
That’s exactly what the TRUE commies used to say about their own *ism when it blew up in their faces. :)
The truth, however, is much more prosaic.
First, there was never a freer-er time than this. Ever.
Then, those who get hit by reality first, are called commies (and mocked, usually). The others manage a bit longer (being different, of course), but reality never sleeps at the wheel. Money merely is a measure of trust in the narrative, a promise of more at a later time in the future. One narrative lasts longer then the other, but they all end in tears in the end.
#41, Suede
The US Congress has said “NO!” to the President:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/09/27/senate-poised-to-vote-to-override-obamas-veto-of-911-bill/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_veto-1245pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
And the Saudis are positioning themselves accordingly….
Don’t sweat it, get on a flight with Trudeau and snorfel down a meal for $1300.00, while the rest of the country dines on KD. Doesn’t this remind you of the good old days when Royalty feasted and the peasants starved. Oh and for a few bucks more Sophie will sing for you!!
Here is a good game form everyone.
1) Open Zolo
2) Go to Coquitlam
3) Open random single family house listings until you get 10 with photos of the inside of the house
4) Count the number of houses without furniture.
I get 20-30%.
Hmmm
Illuminati…good to see your getting onboard.
Super computer says rape the public, rinse and repeat.
The banks make money no matter what happens.
Time to start thinking outside the box sheeple.
The cracks are starting to show in central AB, guys must be have tapped out the LOC waiting for a recovery. It took longer than anticipated but starting to see some real price reductions now… Maybe I can finally stop kicking myself for jumping ship over a year early…
Good evening folks, Beelzebub responding to more of your emails that we have been receiving here on Zoltron.
The whole economic question reminds me of a famous joke by your comedian David Allen. Certainly the topic of the joke concerned religious “knowledge” but I think it applies to economic “knowledge” equally. Here is the joke:
The Pope and an Atheist are having a debate. The Pope opens by saying to the Atheist “You sir, are like a blindfolded man in a dark room searching for a black cat that isn’t there!” The Atheist replies, “Well I think we aren’t that different except for one small point. You also are like a blindfolded man in a dark room searching for a black cat that isn’t there, only you’ve found him!”
I have had more good luck over the last 60 years than any one guy deserves in this country. The last four leaf clover I have discerned is that my son and daughter are 22 and 21 and not in their early 30’s. The lunacy in the real estate market will have the wheat separated from the chaff over the next few years and as they launch their lives and careers, the cost of shelter will be the last of their worries. If not, they can have my house and I will live in the basement.
#11 Carlyle on 09.28.16 at 7:04 pm
———————————-
Shame on you. How is providing support for the poor (and poor children) patently unfair?
And just so you know, high income families (such as the Trudeaus) lose their child support. So money has been diverted from the rich and given to those families that are less well off.
Seems a patently humanitarian and Canadian thing to do.
Got asked today in Home Depot for $2 to help “the underprivileged” young home buyers to get into the market. They call it the some type of renovation of “older/affordable” homes so that these poor non-home owners can get into the market…..or something like that.
WTF what next? Donate to save the banks from going under? …………….ugh, just ugh!
#11 Carlyle on 09.28.16 at 7:04 pm
That’s exactly why the T2 gang has started sending out unheard amounts of cash to people with kids, tax-free. – Garth
I can confirm this and it’s the lowest of income that benefits the most. I work with income support benefits. A few days ago I had a family of 7 (5 kids, 2 adults) applying for income support.
Just keep on making babies and watch the $$ roll in.
It’s patently unfair.
————————————————————
Carlyle, You think your pretty tough don’t you? We sure wont catch you making any of those disgusting “BABIES”.
Just look at what a baby pays in taxes in that baby’s lifetime. $10,000,000.00. And you are complaining about the $3, $4 or $500 per month these babies get now to help them become productive taxpayers.
http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/the-10-million-lifetime-tax-bill-welcome-to-trudeaus-new-tax-rate
At $500 per month that adds up to $108,000.00 per life up to age 18. Peanuts. It should even be more. That’s less than a federal government employee move.
Our birth rate is a dismal 1.61 per couple. Even the USA with all the shootings comes out ahead with a birth rate of 1.88.
Did you ever ponder what would happen to Canada if we have this birth rate and no Immigration?
There would be no people in the country some several thousand years in the future.
What are we living for if not for life?
I am a small businessman and my last 2 office managers both became pregnant. One is coming back soon after her year off and the other one will leave for a year early next year.
This is very inconvenient for small business people not to mention the doctors appointments, ultrasounds and morning sickness we have to work around.
But I am happy to accommodate. I have set aside a couch with blanket for a mid day nap for my pregnant employee.
This is life and life is not always convenient. There is never a good time to have babies. If you have them too early you run the higher risk of becoming a single mother. If you wait for stability and money before babies then you often don’t get any babies at all.
I raised seven kids through some of the most impoverished times you could ever imagine. One day I received a call from the fed Government in around the year 2000 when I was a single dad with 5 kids. I was totally broke and using the food bank to get by. Some woman wanted to know if I really had 5 kids? I said yes and she said I had not been getting the proper family allowance payments for the last year. She sent me a cheque for $5000.00. I will tell you I could have kissed her for figuring it out because I really needed that money.
BCs Birth rate at 1.51 is the lowest in Canada. If you were to get accurate Vancouver Stats my guess is it would be less than 1 per couple. Largely due to housing prices.
#75 message from above on 09.28.16 at 11:07 pm
Good evening folks, Beelzebub responding to more of your emails that we have been receiving here on Zoltron.
The whole economic question reminds me of a famous joke by your comedian David Allen. Certainly the topic of the joke concerned religious “knowledge” but I think it applies to economic “knowledge” equally. Here is the joke:
The Pope and an Atheist are having a debate. The Pope opens by saying to the Atheist “You sir, are like a blindfolded man in a dark room searching for a black cat that isn’t there!” The Atheist replies, “Well I think we aren’t that different except for one small point. You also are like a blindfolded man in a dark room searching for a black cat that isn’t there, only you’ve found him!”
%%%%%%%%%%
Thanks for the laugh…needed that.
The shock that will bring the Cdn. house of debt crashing down will not be interest rates but something else.
A 0.25% increase in rates (2.75% to 3%, 25 yr amortization) vs. monthly payment increase:
-$500K mortgage, increase is about $64.
-$750K mortgage, increase is about $96.
-$1 MM mortgage, increase is about $127.
No panic there, even for the 56% you write about. Also, impact of the increase will be spread out over 5 years as Cdns renew their mortgages – provided they are not underwater.
Otherwise yes, all heck could break loose if the Antichrist of the [email protected] Commenter from a few days ago is correct.
What that underwater number is that triggers the banks to demand cash to renew a mortgage, who knows…still, even that is spread out over 5 years.
Instead, I will be looking at tomorrow’s July 2016 GDP numbers and Sept 2016 Job numbers (Oct 7 release) – we’ll see if TDs “barn-burner” 3rd Qtr forecast is correct.
In the short term, it will be a job loss recession that will bring down the Cdn house of debt, not interest rate increases.
bsant54
Can you get a pony on credit?
“Well, the OPEC deal this week boosted oil, fueled the loonie and helps ensure the Bank of Canada is done with its rate cutting. ”
Strange then that my OAS/CPP deposits in US$ are the lowest they have been since May!
#7 Mark on 09.28.16 at 6:57 pm
““That’s exactly why the T2 gang has started sending out unheard amounts of cash to people with kids, tax-free”
Those cheques are nothing compared to what T2 (and his predecessors) send to Canada’s elderly every month. With GIS, OAS, healthcare, (CPP payments at least come from an actual asset base, the rest comes straight out of taxes!), etc. Why pick on kids specifically?”
What a whine…..and it’s specifically not the kids “specifically”. It’s far too many of the parents. The sense of entitlement for their age is beyond revolting. Sort of like the attitude surrounding moving expense claims at the federal level.
T2’s cohort, his darlings, have comparatively little history of actually contributing to our tax base.
GIS is most definitely not related to any sort of entitlement;
nor OAS- have a look around to see how many seniors have to choose between heating and eating decently, in Ontario for instance;
Health care. Are you serious?! Everyone (sort of) gets that and fyi, your future frailty is a slam dunk. Will you then turn that jaundiced eye onto yourself? Doubtful. You’ll also very likely get a taste of what it’s like to wait. I had a neighbour who was practically blind and waited 4 years for cataract surgery.
When you’re worn out from work at 60+, do come back and tell us how you feel.
AS many folks on here are saying…there must be a specific group of a million or more, mostly 30 somthings skewing that 170% number.
They must be living in a debt fueled fantasy land where actually earning a living and living within those means comes secondary to using this housing miracle as a crutch to jump a few notches in living standards.
Everybody knows of one or two of them.
In my experience, they fit the following criteria:
• They grew up in an urban environment.
• Attained post-secondary degree, (usually in business).
• Under the age of 40.
• Enjoy others envy of them.
• Their main interest in life is not hockey, or camping but buying things or travel to exotic expensive destinations all care of their helocs.
Just my experience…
Now, with that said, if you know one, be care full around them as when the crap hit fan, they will be eyeing up the next source of money.
which could be you!!!
sorry for my rant, but just another note.
I general I feel that this ultra socialist country is going to do their best at bailing out that sector of our society who over indulged themselves.
That means the good people who through all this showed maturity and patience by saving their money will in some shape or form have it extracted from them by our friendly scocialist government.
Not sure the OPEC deal is anything more than a smoke show! Besides, OPEC is no longer a monopoly and most of the corrupt regimes involved need income more than ever before to appease their angry youth, for sure at least some of them will cheat and then the others will follow.
Also the real problem with oil is oversupply in a world than want less oil, to cut supply artificially won’t fool the market for long.
So no, this is not the bottom for oil, at very best it is A bottom, but the true bottom is closer to zero…
For interest rates in Canada I really don’t know, I think there will be a moment where households begin deleveraging, than should lead us to new bottoms in terms of economic pain, surely the BoC will be tempted to lower then. What remains to be seen is if the currency and bond markets will allow rates to come down more in Canada…
As for debt sure it can generate short term growth, sometimes a lot of it, but in the end it is like a flash in the pan, counterproductive because not used to invest in productive activities. That is Canada’s biggest problem actually.
A man in a movie theater notices what looks like a horse sitting next to him.
“Are you a horse?” asked the man, surprised.
“Yes.”
“What are you doing at the movies?”
The horse replied, “Well, I liked the book.”
@#35 Devils Ad
“Buy well, buy within your means and enjoy home.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Soooo, basically you avoided your Daughters question, danced all around the answer and gave her a generic “sales pitch” non answer that …when she buys and the housing prices drop for another 2 years…..your blameless……
Nice.
Getting a straight , honest answer about a purchase, any purchase from commission based Realtors is like trying to nail Jello to the wall…..
Just curious.
Are you going to charge her full commission?
Well, the OPEC deal this week boosted oil, fueled the loonie and helps ensure the Bank of Canada is done with its rate cutting.
_____________________
Sometimes I think you post this stuff just to get a reaction. You know very well that OPEC doesn’t control the market the way they once did. The price of oil is already slipping back this morning.
I’m hoping the CAD can hold it’s strength for another hour while I get some USD for the annual trip to the sunshine.
#37 conan on 09.28.16 at 8:12 pm
“Is that a Mensa horse?”
Could be, however not all Mensans have that level of EQ.
#4 Ole Doberman on 09.27.16 at 5:30 pm
Gartho further to ole 2348 Oliver Cres.
http://www.darylgrimson.com/Properties.php/Details/338
I pranked the RE agent replying to this ad for $3.8 M
asking if it was still available
His response:
“Yes, price is reduced to $3.688m
Want to make an offer?
Best,”
——————————————————
So what do you blog dogs think, should I play along and tell him I’m afraid due to the foreign tax?
See what he says….heheheh
——————————————————–
So in continuation to this thread it sounds like he’s getting multiple offers on the place, should I make an offer?:
“I think the market has adjusted as I see prices off $400,000 to $500,000 from just a few weeks ago.
I have had 4 offers in the last 3 weeks on my 21st property since the tax was introduced. Open houses are very busy on the W Side. I lost out on the weekend on a property for my clients that had multiple offers.
Please see the feature sheet below as to the effect a similar tax of 15% had on the Hong Kong market in late 2012.
I think someone is going to get a good deal on my 21st property.
“Arbutus Master Template 7/4/12″ for 2316 W 21st Ave, Vancouver, BC”
Hey Garth, if someone has a mortgage which they can afford comfortably, and they get a windfall like an inheritance, would you recommend paying off as much of the mortgage as possible, or investing the windfall?
Pay off a 2% loan, barely above the inflation rate, to shovel more equity into an asset at its peak value? You have to ask? — Garth
Good blog Garth, so true even for this Moose. Was house horny back in the early 2000’s. Mrs ExMoose and I got ourselves in a world of financial trouble aftr 2008. Never recovered and divorce ensued. Cost me a bundle to clean it all up. Back on the path of financial responsibility and accountability. Now making sure I do the due dilligence to have a modicom of a retirement.
Regrets, fer sure. I try to teach my young moose my mistakes. So far so good. We will see how it plays out as winters coming in Alberta and there is a dark cloud on the horizon. Wolves are everywhere but if you stick to discipline and read this blog everday…..I/we will be alright.
Cheers and thank you.
#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.29.16 at 8:20 am
@#35 Devils Ad
“Buy well, buy within your means and enjoy home.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Soooo, basically you avoided your Daughters question, danced all around the answer and gave her a generic “sales pitch” non answer that …when she buys and the housing prices drop for another 2 years…..your blameless……
Nice.
Getting a straight , honest answer about a purchase, any purchase from commission based Realtors is like trying to nail Jello to the wall…..
Just curious.
Are you going to charge her full commission?
———————————–
Nah bruh. He just made that story up. No one would have kids with someone that obtuse.
For those wondering when FED will raise:
After the election. They want to help Clinton get elected. Who said the FED isn’t political?
And after, it will be a token raise or two. Can’t let the stock market or bond market or real estate market fall too much.
That’s all you need to know.
#86 pBrasseur “So no, this is not the bottom for oil, at very best it is A bottom, but the true bottom is closer to zero…’
YUP. Haven’t we all lost enough money on the oil crash? I did. But I finally saw the light.
Garth and associates just don’t seem to get it yet. Why keep cheering for higher oil prices? It’s done. A bygone era. Kaput. These are the death throes. Say bye bye and rotate out of those financials. Now. Today. Before it’s too late. BTW, OPEC hasn’t changed oil output, it’s US Shale Oil that caused the oil glut. I’m sick of seeing posters ignore this glaring FACT.
In some ways, the folks in charge of Canada’s economy are reacting in the only way they can to the drastic changes happening every single day. Less jobs, more software and automation. Large corps still holding on to their rapidly failing business models, mis-allocation of capital in RE.
All of this leading to less disposable income and the only way to stave off depression is to helicopter money to poor people (formerly middle class) to keep them consuming, in the form of child tax benefits. All of those criticising this should try to understand that this is a symptom and not a cause of the overall failure of the big picture. We have strayed a very far distance away from true free market capitalism.
And it’s only getting worse because our politicians are not steering in a new direction. Where is the leadership? Look at Liz Sandals sycophanting for Nestle. (I made up that word)
And the OPEC deal….
It’s price fixing and collusion. Something you sheep should be outraged at in free market capitalism.
Your Prime Minister.
https://youtu.be/2BpsLJhkz1g
Arrogant. Time for a referendum in Alberta
Junior, Moroneau, Poloz and the Liberal brain trust of dinosaurs ( Dion , Goodale and McCallum have driven Canada into depression for political reasons. Daddy Trudum experimented with creating mass poverty in the Maritimes and it changed the political landscape with so many people dependant on Liberal welfare that fear of change kept the lib yards in power for a generation.
#33 The American on 09.28.16 at 7:59 pm
All my Canadian friends *claiming* six figure salaries and how “well” they’re paid.
////////////////////////////////
I don’t believe it. You have friends?
#38 Ray Skunk “What’s APR?”
You stumped me, I had to look it up.
But then I’ve never had credit card debt, I’ve always bought used cars for cash, and our mortgage was paid off …uh, a long time ago.
So I’ll probably have to look it up next time too!
I’m good with ETF though.
#96 Neil Armstrong
“And it’s only getting worse because our politicians are not steering in a new direction.”
——————————–
Ontario’s Premier is steering that province in a new direction. So far, it’s working out very poorly.
I have $200 at 20%. Comes with a free hazelnut latte. And I will throw in a free pistachio biscotti if you recommend me to a friend and he/she also borrows $200.
Micro finance. Bank of LowRent is born.
#77 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.16 at 12:28 am
Ah no. The other poster merely mentioned that it doesn’t make any sense that this benefit pays more per month than people who actually work.
Why do we reward people who have kids that cannot afford them to such an extent? Nothing to do with being Canadian.
Moreover, this benefit, like all other benefits of this type will probably be abused.
MF
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/09/29/canadian-suspect-in-terror-probe-took-selfie-with-justin-trudeau.html
Woops. I wonder who this guy voted for?
MF
#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.29.16 at 8:20 am
and
#94 Renter’s Revenge! on 09.29.16 at 10:00 am
RE:
Fartz; Of course I am going to charge them a full commission. That’s the only way to refund it back to them so that they can use it as an increase in their down payment and the property shows having sold for what it sold for banking purposes.
Renter’s Revenge; “Obtuse?” seriously? “Obtuse???”. Gentlemen I think a good argument could be made for that it is you who are the obtuse ones.
Hey you wanna rent? Good for you. It’s a free world… well maybe not so much };-) How’s it working out for you? Really, are you happy? ‘Cause it doesn’t sound like it. I’d like to help. Really I would. Try reading my post again, with a little less obtuse mind. Maybe then you will see the thinly veiled message there within.
SHIFT happens. Learn to ride the tide };-)
Further to my last…I am also financing ponies.
And yes the latte deal applies when you finance a pony with me.
I know it’s annoying that many don’t believe rates would be up by now, but can we blame them? Watch this MoneyTalk interview… even the TD chief economist starts laughs when asked if the bank of canada will move rates up:
http://www.bnn.ca/video/my-playlist/money-talk-canada-s-mixed-economic-signals~961409
It’ll be interesting to see the CADUSD moves next year, if the US does move rates up while Poloz keeps them flat. iPhones will keep very, very expensive!
#96 Neil Armstrong on 09.29.16 at 10:16 am
#86 pBrasseur “So no, this is not the bottom for oil, at very best it is A bottom, but the true bottom is closer to zero…’
YUP. Haven’t we all lost enough money on the oil crash? I did. But I finally saw the light.
——————————
seems it blinded you!
48.27 right now , another 2.5% after 5 yesterdy- oil will see 60 soon and 100 within 3 years.
even if all you enviro-chickenlittle-alarmistfools switch to solar powered air/ground/water travel, the rest of us will still be using petro energy. oil is here for 200 more years. then fusion.
german bank worries to shave 1000 off the dow. for a start.
watch out for splatter.
Europe calls on journalists’ Panama Papers expertise
canada 2000 received files
“Journalists presented their findings to the European parliamentarians, highlighting the wrongdoing they had discovered. “…”The way to end this is by transparency (corporate registries providing minimum levels of basic information) and info exchange.”
Journalists also underscored the part played by individuals and institutions, including major European banks and even European states with controversial tax policies, that facilitate tax abuses. The focus of any European response to the Panama Papers, suggested German journalist and ICIJ member Jan Stroyzk, “should be on the banks because they’re so deeply anchored in the system.”
Elsewhere, the fallout from Panama Papers continues. On Tuesday, the New York Times reported that the U.S. Department of Justice had filed criminal charges against Chinese nationals for allegedly helping North Korea develop nuclear weapons, including a businesswoman who used shell companies registered through the Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca.
The Canadian Revenue Agency confirmed this week that it was reviewing 2,000 files linked to the Panama Papers and warned that the 85 Canadians currently under audit are unlikely to receive any leniency from the tax authority, according to CBC News.
In Australia, the Australian Financial Review reported that federal police had carried out 18 raids in early September and seized documents, electronic files and 170 kilograms of silver as part of its widening investigation into the Panama Papers revelations. In addition to the raids, another 100 Australians were notified of action to be taken against them. About $2.5 billion in cash transfers have been identified by Australia’s tax authority, which said its initial focus has been on investigating facilitators – including accountants and lawyers – and high net wealth individuals.”
https://www.icij.org/blog/2016/09/europe-calls-journalists-panama-papers-expertise
db plummeting – something is hitting the fan over the pond
The Real Scandal Behind the Panama Papers
“As Mark Pieth, a Swiss lawyer and anti-corruption expert at the University of Basel, put it in an interview this summer with The Guardian: “I have had a close look at the so called Panama Papers and I must admit that, even as an expert on economic and organized crime, I was amazed to see so much of what we talk about in theory was confirmed in practice.”
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/the-real-scandal-behind-the-panama-papers
#78 dosouth
C’mon, pay attention, it’s Home Depot’s Orange Door Campaign:
https://www.sootoday.com/more-local/local-home-depot-kicks-off-annual-orange-door-project-campaign-377468
There’s a great website called Google that you should check out before you post.
Large corps still holding on to their rapidly failing business models, mis-allocation of capital in RE.
How so? Canadian corporations seem to be more profitable than ever.
All of this leading to less disposable income and the only way to stave off depression is to helicopter money to poor people (formerly middle class) to keep them consuming, in the form of child tax benefits.
What the government gives to the young, is a mere pittance of what they’re giving to the old at this point. Would you refer to OAS, GIS, and Medicare as “helicopter money”? If not, then why would you refer to transfers to young Canadians as “helicopter money”?
Before it’s too late. BTW, OPEC hasn’t changed oil output, it’s US Shale Oil that caused the oil glut. I’m sick of seeing posters ignore this glaring FACT.
True, and shale oil was largely a function of subprime credit being made available to that sector. Even when oil was $80/barrel, almost none of them made money. So unless there’s some miraculous recovery in oil prices, shale was malinvestment. At least Canada’s oilsands was not financed with subprime credit, and break-even profitability is significantly lower than the shale wells.
#150 bdwy sktrn 2.0 on 09.23.16 at 3:13 pm
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17409376/2023-KITCHENER-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5L2W6
They will be lucky to get 1.4 mil. now, listing price =/= sell price, especially after the HAM fear is gone … like 97% gone baby
——————————-
sold sticker there this morn.
it took exactly one weekend to sell – still think it went for 1.4, or 450,000 below ask? great comedy!
(will advise sold price later today)
there was no peak around here, it’s still going up.
remember 1.6-1.7 was absolute peak for a house like this in the spring.
todays’s price will come out around 1.8(a hair under ask), not 1.4.
Got VIX? Up 26%.
http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/investing/canadians-aussies-and-kiwis-trapped-in-commodity-bust-housing-boom-cycle-and-the-unwinding-is-going-to-be-painful&pubdate=2016-09-29
Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have now grouped together Canada, Australia and New Zealand as part of a trio heading for “an unwinding.” They blame the complicated situation on the crash in oil and metal prices, and a surge of money into real estate.
The end result is expected to be a “painful unwinding” in the medium term.
Unfortunately the Canadian dollar will follow in the same direction as the Canadian economy.
Down.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/09/28/canadian-dollar-value_n_12236476.html
#98 Smoking Man on 09.29.16 at 10:19 am
Your Prime Minister.
https://youtu.be/2BpsLJhkz1g
Arrogant. Time for a referendum in Alberta
………………………………………………………………………
Not my Prime Minister! This guy is a real piece of work. I hope that everyone who voted for this clown gets what they deserve. However in the mean time he will decimate the entire manufacturing and natural resource industry. Oh well back to fishing, hunting and bringing in beaver pelts. What JT wants to take our rifles! Now we have to beat the beavers to death with sticks. Welcome to the future apocalypse.
#106 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 09.29.16 at 12:03 pm
“Obtuse?” seriously? “Obtuse???”.
How many economists from around the world does it take to convince a realtor that it’s not a good time to buy a house?
http://business.financialpost.com/investing/canadians-aussies-and-kiwis-trapped-in-commodity-bust-housing-boom-cycle-and-the-unwinding-is-going-to-be-painful
Obtuse: annoyingly insensitive or slow to understand
https://www.google.ca/?gws_rd=ssl#q=obtuse
#77 Bottoms Up re:#11 Carlyle on 09.28.16 at 7:04
———————————-
Shame on you. How is providing support for the poor (and poor children) patently unfair?
And just so you know, high income families (such as the Trudeaus) lose their child support. So money has been diverted from the rich and given to those families that are less well off.
Seems a patently humanitarian and Canadian thing to do.
—————————
The example I used earlier is a 2 adult, 5 children family — one adult who hasn’t worked for years and the other a month here and there for years. Yet they continue to have children the do not have the economic means to support.
Do you think it’s ok for grown adults to continue purposely having children they cannot afford with the expectation/knowledge/entitlement that taxpayers will cover the entire living costs of their family?
Yes let’s penalize responsible working families/taxpayers. They can pay the taxes to cover the irresponsibility of others. This is the same “let’s just go into massive debt, the government will save us if things go wrong” type of irresponsible ideology that leads to economic ruin for us all — as evidenced by low interest rates screwing savers.
Im not saying we don’t need a social safety net. I am saying though combined Child Tax Credit and Income Support benefits gives so much money that it makes more economic sense for these adults NOT to work. Where else are they going to get the equivalent of 60k before taxes a year?
Don’t even get me started on the unfairness of taking away the taxpayers child tax credit while rewarding those those who refuse to make responsible choices with tha same taxpayers taxes.
Firstly, 16.2 MM Canadians is NOT 56%, TRY about 45%. StatsCan July 2016 Cdn population estimate yesterday was 36.3 MM. They cannot even do basic math…by their estimate Cdn population would be 29 MM as if, we are not in the year 2002 last time I checked the calendar.
Look at their summary chart and peruse BC technical insolvency rate vs. the rest of Canada:
http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/0074M-17%20CORP%20Insolvency%20MNP%20Consumer%20Debt%20Sentiment%20Survey%20-%20infographic%20EN%20FINAL.jpg
YVR with the highest consumer debt in Canada at end of 2013, high rents, large mortgages somehow manages to have the lowest technical insolvency rate at 20% vs. the rest of Canada (don’t make enough money to cover debt obligations)…say what?
This, besides failing at basic math, seems to be a dubious poll conducted by Ipsos on behalf of MNP. Who were the 1,502 people polled? Crack whores in YVR’s East End? Or most likely poll questions that lead to the exaggeration of results.
It is inconceivable that 45% of Canadians are $200 or less per month away from budget oblivion, let alone 31% on average are technically insolvent. If that were true, insolvencies would be soaring. According to StatsCan, insolvencies went from 32.8 thousand to 35.3 thousand Qtr2 2015 vs. Qtr2 2016…not exactly soaring are they.
The inconsistencies lead me to believe this was a Doomer Sensationalism poll to raise the profile of MNP.
bsant54
Learn to do research.
StatsCan Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises, second quarter 2016:
“Canadian corporations earned $72.9 billion in operating profits in the second quarter, down 3.4% from the previous quarter.”
bsant54
Too funny.
As funny as Smoking Man’s story about how is hydro bill got halved (went to monthly from every 2 month payments…Liberals).
Some clever humor a good thing.
bsant54
Been hearing “this is the bottom” or “this is the top” for many years now. I think the market will tell us the truth when either happens.
#121 Renter’s Revenge! on 09.29.16 at 2:42 pm
I’m just to inclined to try help people like you and Fartz see the light. I really should learn to back off and let Darwinian evolution deal with you but I really would prefer to save you from such an end.
Who knows what the future holds for the market? Really no one can predict the future with anything better than even odds.
But the best way to predict YOUR future is to track YOUR past understanding that madness is defined as doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. My past has proven that real estate, in the long run, goes up in value. Will that continue? Who knows for sure. I do know that for the last 35/40 years of my life there have been those, like you, who say, at the time, it’s going to crash. Even when it purportedly does it never goes down nearly so much as it went up.
I truly do believe that there will come a major economic paradigm shift as has happened to so many other civilizations in the world, but I don’t think it will be in my remaining lifetime nor that of my children. Grandchildren? Maybe.
Ya gotta live your life. Don’t waste it because you think, for example, the Cascadia Subduction is about to occur. Learn to accept what you can’t change and change that which you can. Enjoy life, learn and pass on your good works that future generations might be better than we were.
For example, historically, climate change has been largely a consequence of geophysical forces. Nothing much we can do if that turn of events begins to repeat itself. But humanity is no doubt contributing to greenhouse gasses. We CAN do something about THAT and so we should.
The Canadian economy is bad and getting worse.
Canada is running a federal budget deficit, a trade deficit and a negative current account balance. Any one of these is crippling. T2 is overseeing all 3. As I predicted.
The federal government has been running a budget deficit of around $8 billion over the past year, its trade balance is down to a deficit of $29.4 billion, and its current account has fallen to a deficit of $19.9 billion.
Lol
The US is kicking our butts so hard
#116 bdwy sktrn on 09.29.16 at 1:35 pm
sold sticker there this morn.
It did? Who would have thought, as the 24ft lot is pretty cramped. The sellers had a good deal, I would say. Maybe the buyer is smelling a rezoning or something.
#117 TurnerNation on 09.29.16 at 2:02 pm
Got VIX? Up 26%.
Better, I’ve got (TSE:SIS), up +120% since this jan.
Anything old people need is a growth market in Canada. Diapers, meds, stairlifts, hip-replacements.
Demand for 7-bedroom houses? Not so much future there. Who has 6 kids nowadays? (Other than the Amish in Kitchener, ON?)
#130 Bram on 09.29.16 at 5:12 pm
#117 TurnerNation on 09.29.16 at 2:02 pm
Got VIX? Up 26%.
Better, I’ve got (TSE:SIS), up +120% since this jan.
Anything old people need is a growth market in Canada. Diapers, meds, stairlifts, hip-replacements.
Demand for 7-bedroom houses? Not so much future there. Who has 6 kids nowadays? (Other than the Amish in Kitchener, ON?)
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What inspired you to buy that stock amongst it’s competitors? Otis, thyssen krup etc.? That’s a fantastic return..
Garth,
I live in my parents basement, I have an average income, but I have the chance to buy a 2 bed 2 bath condo in the 905 for 50k below asking. Should I squeeze the trigger? Maybe rent it out?
Why? — Garth
“The US is kicking our butts so hard”
Oh please. Scale those numbers by 10 to reflect the traditional Canada:USA population and economic ratio, and Canada is still doing far better than the US. In a period where cyclicality is against Canada no less. When cyclicality starts to favour Canada, which it will soon, Canada will easily blow the US away.
Think about what you post please. Blind boosterism does nobody any good.
Garth,
I live in my parents basement, I have an average income, but I have the chance to buy a 2 bed 2 bath condo in the 905 for 50k below asking. Should I squeeze the trigger? Maybe rent it out?
Why? — Garth
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What else should a young guy do with his meager savings? Not enough for a house, could this be a path to someday getting one? The prospect of moving out one day had crossed my mind…
Re: #78 dosouth on 09.29.16 at 1:24 am
Got asked today in Home Depot for $2 to help “the underprivileged” young home buyers to get into the market. They call it the some type of renovation of “older/affordable” homes so that these poor non-home owners can get into the market…..or something like that.
Most charities will NOT give any numbers what % of your donation actually goes to the charity. Most of the donations goes to admin and the exorbitant salaries of the perpetrators.
I asked at the Real Canadian SUperstore in Coquitlam and Pitt Meadows BC what % went to the charity and the teller couldn’t tell me, so I asked to see the manager (who I’ve spoken to many times). He would not come to speak with me to answer these questions.
Marketplace has a show on how LITTLE goes to the charity:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwY5z8lpznY
How is the money given audited, and does all that money go into the charity or their own pockets. My opinion is it’s all a scam.
Indigo Books makes the money they collect go only to purchase their books at retail. A CEO at Indigo wouldn’t give any numbers to Marketplace either. How much of a scam is that?
Every place that asks me to donate I ask for numbers on their charity and when they don’t give them, I say loudly Marketplace’s investigation of charities and how much of a scam they are.
Re: #98 Smoking Man on 09.29.16 at 10:19 am
Your Prime Minister.
https://youtu.be/2BpsLJhkz1g
Arrogant. Time for a referendum in Alberta
Proof that the carbon tax is a scam started by Maurice Strong (dead Can. politician).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMkqozFqT0g
http://www.globalresearch.ca/climate-change-is-the-carbon-tax-the-death-of-democracy/32024
http://www.therebel.media/maurice_strong_is_dead
You are being fooled if you believe the bull of humans causing climate change.
Here’s some levity from George Carlin on the enviro:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB0aFPXr4n4