Ready?

omg

Good thing only 1%ers read this pathetic blog, or else we’d have to break the bad news to you. Retirement without a nestegg sucks. And it will suck just as much after 2025.

This week the T2 gang unveiled Canada Pension Plan changes which will increase premiums for workers and employers by 20%, and eventually (in about two decades) up the amount paid out. The goal is to increase the CPP part of a worker’s retirement income from a quarter to a third – but only up to an income of $82,700, nine years from now. So for someone who averages fifty grand during their working lives, the benefit would go from $12,000 to $16,000.

As you may know, the average monthly CPP cheque is now $643. The OAS – pogey for wheezy, flaccid 65+ wrinklies – is $573, and it’s means-tested. So the average retiree collects less than $15,000 a year, which ain’t enough to live on anywhere. The changes, to be introduced in a couple of years, will cost taxpayers about $250 million annually, reduce overall employment and may actually make retirement harder (since people will save less).

By the way, OAS costs the government $40 billion a year and as the Boomers sink into the thirsty underwear years, this is expected to rise to $110 billion. Nobody pays into this (like CPP), so it must come from general government revenues. And still, the feds admit at least a quarter of all families are headed for retirement hell.

In short, it’s not working. But you’d never know it.

“The changes we’re making mean that Canadian retirees will have more money to spend on their needs — like healthy food, transportation and housing costs — which will lead to a more secure retirement, a better quality of life and create the conditions for overall economic growth in Canada,” the finance minister said on Monday, proving he has a keen sense of humour.

Meanwhile, the single-best tool people have to prevent a future filled with KD and Wal-Mart? You bet. The TFSA. All money invested grows free of tax, and can be removed without consequence. None is added to your taxable income – so TFSA revenues will not eat into your OAS handouts.

For example, sock $5,500 a year into that shelter from age 30 to 65, invest it in growth assets averaging 6.5% (less than the TSX history) and at retirement it should contain $789,300, of which $590,000 is untaxed growth. Continue to earn 6.5% and collect an annual income stream of $51,350 – not reportable on your tax return, not subject to income tax, with no impact on your public dole. This is equivalent to draining $67,000 annually out of an RRSP.

So, kids, figure it out. You will never retire happy on what the government provides. Morneau’s being a political dongle with his talk of a “better quality of life”. The tool you need lies before you. Use it or lose it.

$    $    $

Will the US Fed raise interest rates on Wednesday?

No. At least that’s what the market is saying – putting a 20% chance on the central bank pulling the trigger. Just a few weeks ago the odds were 40% that the cost of money would start to rise, but then economic data got weaker, Trump got stronger and market volatility spiked. (Update: some insiders say the Fed will indeed shock us tomorrow.)

So here’s what to expect. No rate hike. But Janet Yellin will use her media conference following the non-announcement to warn that the days of cheap money are nonetheless coming to an end. This will be based on two major facts: unemployment targets have been met, with the jobless rate solidly under 5%, plus inflation in the 2% range is back where policymakers want it. So in order to keep the economy not-too-hot and not-too-cold the key rate will rise one quarter point – but only after the election.

2 pm on December 14th. Should be quite the day, especially if…

$    $    $

…President-elect Trump is asked to comment.

How much closer is the unthinkable to happening? About 5%, say the strategists at Citigroup, who now foresee a 40% likelihood the rebel billionaire bully will win the White House (up from 35% last week). Markets, they argue, have not yet factored this in, with most investors assuming Hillary Clinton will prevail (despite her best efforts).

If that happens, what will be the market impact? Four-fold, they surmise. The US dollar will strengthen considerably, bond yields will soar (and bond prices tank), stock markets will have indigestion (a modest 3% decline on the S&P but a 10% plop for emerging markets), plus gold will jump by almost a hundred bucks.

So if you fear a Trumpian future, what to do?

Nothing. A balanced and globally-diversified portfolio can easily weather that kind of volatility, which might be quite short-lived (since the prez needs Congressional and Senate support to actually do anything). Selling now, going to cash and living on Tums until November 8th is not a strategy. It’s dumb.

But, anyway, he’s toast. Er, right?

150 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 09.19.16 at 7:04 pm

Blow up the Fed

#2 Owe Canada on 09.19.16 at 7:07 pm

The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated.

Growing the debt in the economy significantly faster than the economy itself grows seems to have developed into a way of life in Canada.

The following numbers are taken from the Statistics Canada website:

At the end of June, 2016 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the credit market summary data table) was $7.05 trillion.

At the end of June, 2015 the total debt outstanding was $6.57 trillion. In the one year period from the end of June, 2015 to the end of June, 2016 it increased by $476 billion. This is an increase of 7.2%.

The approximate beginning of the global financial crisis was June, 2007. At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding was $3.99 trillion. In the last 9 years it has increased by $3.06 trillion. This is an increase of 76.8%.

Looking at the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors (17th line up from the bottom of the credit market summary data table):

At the end of June, 2016 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $5.02 trillion.

At the end of June, 2015 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $4.75 trillion. In the one year period from the end of June, 2015 to the end of June, 2016 it increased by $269 billion. This is an increase of 5.6%.

At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $2.84 trillion. In the last 9 years it has increased by $2.18 trillion. This is an increase of 76.6%.

The start date of this Statistics Canada data table can be changed by clicking on the “add/remove data” tab at the top of the page.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick-choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=3780122

#3 MSM-Free Zone on 09.19.16 at 7:10 pm

A few more New York and Minnesota style incidents before November and a Trumpopian future is a virtual certainty.

#4 Self Directed on 09.19.16 at 7:23 pm

Garth, what about a September Slump? What kind of drop in the markets can we expect in the next 3 weeks?

#5 Trojan House on 09.19.16 at 7:25 pm

Whenever the government promises “a better quality” of anything you know it will be the opposite.

Time to end the Ponzi scheme of the CPP and let people save money themselves.

#6 Ex-Cowtown on 09.19.16 at 7:33 pm

Trump will likely win, and as with the Brexit vote it will amount to a big …..meh….. after a big buying opportunity as all of the Hillary lovin’ Bernie-ites panic and sell everything.

The bigger issue though is T2’s hell bent for leather trajectory to do exactly what didn’t work in Germany, England, Holland, Ontario, etc. etc. Spending real treasure on carbon taxes to protect us from an imaginary bogey-man.

http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.NErzfnQa.ZZFe5kXF.dpbs

Anybody have any ideas on how to profit from the upcoming debacle, I’m all ears!!!

#7 David McDonald on 09.19.16 at 7:36 pm

Clinton says half of Trump supporters are deplorable: racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic. Think what that means! If the candidates are tied it means one quarter of American voters are deplorable. I hope she’s wrong and hope the explanation is a huge appetite for change. Nevertheless I do not understand how anyone could support for this fulgar, unprincipled man.

#8 For those about to flop... on 09.19.16 at 7:37 pm

As I listen to the radio today something started bothering me.

If you are now going with Robax,Turner InfLewenza whatever happened to Bachman,Turner Overdrive…

M42BC

#9 RentYVR on 09.19.16 at 7:42 pm

Trump win will crash the dollar not spike it? That’s why gold will rise. And you’re looking at much more than 3% on the S&P in that scenario.

#10 nonplused on 09.19.16 at 7:45 pm

Well Trump is certainly interesting and the finance minister is certainly a first class moron, but I don’t know that we need to worry a whole lot about 2025 while the US is bombing the Syrian army like they did yesterday. Although the army never claimed to be on the Syrian side, why they are on anybody’s side isn’t exactly clear. Did they just get tired of doing live fire drills in the Nevada desert? Is it more lifelike if there are actually real people in the crosshairs? Are they trying to provoke the Syrians to start shooting at their aircraft? Just exactly who are the madmen making these decisions? I am not particularly worried that Syria is any threat to the US, they are not at this point a treat to anyone, but there are a lot of Russian S-300’s and 400’s in the area and they can easily take down any American plane except the stealth fighters. If the Americans can kill 80 SAA soldiers “by accident”, the Syrians or the Russians can probably shoot down a US A-10 or F-16 “by accident” too, and then all hell will break loose. I’m much more worried about this than whether the US presidency becomes a “You’re Fired” reality show or we get Hitlery on life support for 4 years.

It seems world geo-politics has become a dangerous game of “Highlander”, where the immortals must keep chopping of each other’s heads until only one is left. Unfortunately it is human nature to try and take your killer with you if you can.

#11 Kath Mcwynnty on 09.19.16 at 7:58 pm

Garth is so right!
Everyone should heavily invest in hydro one shares inside their TFSA.
I guarantee they will go up in value. The cleanest source of electricity anywhere. All other competitive sources will be subject to carbon tax.
Even JT approves!
Love you all!
Kath.

#12 espressobob on 09.19.16 at 7:58 pm

There are good reasons to become a good saver. Investing for the future is one thought. It’s the things you don’t see coming that would surprise most. It’s better known as a contingency fund.

Those who live on a knifes edge are setting themselves up for financial disaster.

Saving is a discipline, always has been.

#13 Smartalox on 09.19.16 at 7:58 pm

You may call CPP a ‘ponzi’ scheme, but what you may not realize is that the purpose of the CPP is no longer to provide a retirement supplement to Canadians, but instead to provide large pools of money for investment in ‘infrastructure projects’ without diverting tax dollars from social spending.

Pension plans love the sort of long-timeline, super stable, conservative income streams that come with large infrastructure projects.

Look at the recent story of OMERS (Ontario Municipal Employee Retirement System) buying in Australian ports.

Think about Trudeau’s recent pledge to have Canada join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Your increased CPP contributions are going to help Canadian companies build roads in China, or help Chinese companies build pipelines in Canada.

Either way, once the projects are done a decade or so from now, the resultant revenue will pad CPP payouts – but not before lining the pockets of private parties to the public-private partnerships to follow.

#14 boopsie on 09.19.16 at 7:59 pm

Just one little clarification….your TFSA contributions can go on to 90. So not 65. The 71 year-olds can dump their RRIF draws in there to age 90 (as long as they don’t need them to live on).
So much for fairness. Just ask [email protected]

#15 NOTHING SURPRISES on 09.19.16 at 8:00 pm

Information from contacts in Germany provides this little tidbit.

Deutsche Bank, one of the largest banks in the world, is about to fail – and it is five times bigger than Lehman Brothers, which failed in 2008 and triggered the US crash. Deutsche Bank will impact the entire world.

How true? They are close to the action.

#16 T2 gang on 09.19.16 at 8:01 pm

T2 gang

This must be one of those DELETED violations.

Imagine this:

immigrant gang
muslim gang
chinese gang to name a few possible options.

I know, it’s not my site and ownership overrides all other rules.

#17 ddgmick on 09.19.16 at 8:02 pm

Garth do you things will stay the way they are low interest rates, low bond rates, no growth, high housing prices, to few people with to much money, so much fraud in banking system I can not begin to show examples, it would take to much space. Looks like the US and Canada in the same place that the USSR was when it crashed. Get a real useful job like a farming producing something that you need !!!!!!!!

#18 Andrew Woburn on 09.19.16 at 8:03 pm

#67 hope & ruin on 09.18.16 at 10:35 pm

I’m pretty sure Putin and the Chinese are in it together . They seemed pretty cozy when he attended their military parade last year, china showed off the new nukes
————————————

Imagine you are Putin. Most of your nation’s resource wealth is in Siberia with a sparse population of 40 million people. Many of them are overly fond of vodka. You are chatting with the Chinese leader of one billion resource-hungry, highly ambitious people. Siberia ends at the north bank of the 2,700 mile Amur River. China starts at the south bank.

Your nation took parts of the Amur valley from China by force in the 19th century. The Chinese have long memories. They are still a bit scratchy about all the sand that was kicked in the Qing dynasty’s face by 19th century imperialists. So even if they are setting up shop in your back yard in Minsk, you smile a lot. What else can you do?

#19 AACI Home-Dog on 09.19.16 at 8:04 pm

I think the Trump fear is already built-in to the markets.
Expect them to go higher if Hillary wins.
Expect them to go higher if Trump wins.

Nice steady real estate market here, in the affordable part of BC; the interior.

Cheers Garth!

#20 scaredgeek on 09.19.16 at 8:04 pm

Trump will be properly leg roped if elected…forget about him

#21 For those about to flop... on 09.19.16 at 8:05 pm

Hey Entrepreneur,I think this is the link you asked me to post again regarding Britian employment numbers…

M42BC

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/545649/jobsmacking-brexit-boom-continues-uk-employment-reaches-record-high

#22 toast on 09.19.16 at 8:07 pm

But, anyway, he’s toast.

Not too long ago you got the wire that Hillary/Rubio was the ticket.

#23 Marcus on 09.19.16 at 8:07 pm

Why will Trump win in a landslide? Quite simply because people are sick and tired of not only the lies but the outright theft by the political class. The Clinton foundation’s rape of Haiti fir instance. Whether Trump deserves the Presidency at this point is irrelevant. He will be the next President short of them rigging the computers …… which is a real possibility. Invest accordingly.

#24 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 09.19.16 at 8:07 pm

The US dollar will strengthen considerably, bond yields will soar (and bond prices tank)…

Damn right!

#25 Andrew Woburn on 09.19.16 at 8:18 pm

What condo hell looks like.

“But the bills are piling up. County inspectors ordered many of the development’s 76 balconies removed last year because of rotting supports that created an “imminent danger” of collapse. Pressure from groundwater caused basement foundation walls to fail in at least seven units, and the $750,000 repair was not covered by insurance.”

“A 2012 engineering study estimated that $600,000 was needed to repair poor grading, tripping hazards, retaining walls and crumbling parking lots. Past boards had set aside only two-thirds of that amount. To try to bridge the gap, the current board has hiked fees 33 percent on average, to between $325 and $600 a month.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/condominiums-in-crisis-financial-troubles-put-many-communities-at-risk/2016/09/17/07ba32ac-6972-11e6-ba32-5a4bf5aad4fa_story.html?wpisrc=nl_most-draw8&wpmm=1

#26 Lucy turner (burnaby) on 09.19.16 at 8:19 pm

hi garth! great post today! i just had a baby last week. what is the best thing i can do, to start investing for her? what are my options?

Yours in burnaby,
Lucy

#27 TurnerNation on 09.19.16 at 8:21 pm

Sure tax hikes bring prosperity.
War brings peace.
Hard work brings freedom.

We know the playbook. Come retirement it will be known as Twenty-Dollarama. Already it’s up to five bucks.

#28 Apocalypse2016 on 09.19.16 at 8:26 pm

Social catastrophe on the way for Canada’s former middle class. CPP won’t be much help.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/09/19/food-bank-users-increasingly-older-better-educated.html

#29 larry2face on 09.19.16 at 8:28 pm

Atleast trump calls a spade a spade! the Usa is in a mess, and the last thing anyone needs is that war hungry criminal clinton running the show…… just a extension of obama. have a great weekend, off to vegas

leisure Larry

#30 FREEMAN on 09.19.16 at 8:35 pm

Here’s something else that will pop the Canadian housing bubble, something other than interest rates:

Everyone is talking about an interest rate hike that may cause the Canadian housing bubble to pop.
But what if gasoline went up 50% in price, wouldn’t that also strain the family’s budgets now that most people are driving big fuel guzzling SUV’s ?
A 50% increase in fuel costs would probably hurt most people as much as a 2% increase in mortgage rates.

Well guess what; ONE of the biggest oil fields in the U.S. has now just past its peak, and production is beginning to crash hard. This is the field that Obama and everyone else said would help America to energy independence. Well, it will be bone-DRY in 7 years, so you can forget about that. And when that happens gasoline will definitely be higher by 50% from where it is now.

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-death-of-the-bakken-field-has-begun-big-trouble-for-the-u-s/

#31 Tommy thialand on 09.19.16 at 8:41 pm

A great friday afternoon post gartholomew!! you hit some good points. I have to admit though, after reading this i feel very privileged that i can live on 13,700 roughly a year on the beach in my beautiful new country i so dearly call home Pantong Thailand. In 1996 i bought 4 duplexes and now have a income of around 11k a month. I only need around 13k-14k a year max. That provides me with a 1 bedroom place on the beach, food, medical, dental and daily massages. the rest of the money i pound into stocks like garth was mentioning. In 2011 i fell in love with the woman of my dreams moved here and never looked back. I highly recommend anyone wanting to live cheap, to keep your rentals running smooth in canada, and move to Thailand. I have never looked back garth… I do understand not all of us are so lucky that they can up right and move. I have to admit i feel like a king over here.
p.s women are great too :) massage time!

tommy dogger

#32 MF on 09.19.16 at 8:45 pm

#7 David McDonald on 09.19.16 at 7:36 pm

Trump will win because he is not Hillary Clinton, who is seen as an extension of Obama (plus she is now seen as frail). Usually after two terms there is a normal fatigue that naturally sets in, but Obama has been a complete disaster for the US.

Obama’s legacy is racial tension, suppressed interest rates/asset bubbles everywhere, huge unsustainable debt, terrorism, ineffective foreign policy with allies thrown under the bus, media manipulation, a mcjob fake recovery, and nauseating amounts of political correctness.

Americans are also looking at the EU and seeing that it is a failure because of the progressive globalist policies that Obama/Clinton follow. The EU set a dangerous precedent for all who are paying attention to see. It is just a matter of time until it collapses. As a matter of fact it feels like we are due for another Grexit crisis.

All the Americans have to do is look north at what we have going on here. Anyone else notice T2 pledging MILLIONS to the utterly corrupt racist and useless UN today? Of course the CBC article eliminated the comments on that story. Of course. It does beg the question..what is T2’s ultimate plan? What is his and the others agenda? Why is he so adamant about following all the globalist scripts when it is so destructive?

MF

#33 Nemesis on 09.19.16 at 8:45 pm

“Since the prez needs Congressional and Senate support to actually do anything.” – HonGT

#FunnyYouShouldSayThat,Or… #TheWayBackMachineDisagrees….

https://youtu.be/R3Hx2RMZsfs

#34 Nodebt on 09.19.16 at 8:49 pm

#26-Lucy turner
First thing keep all ur pop bottles and beer bottles always and cash them in each month. My mom Brit did it for me and my sister till we were 19 and does it for her grandsons and granddaughters to this day. My sister and I each got 3k just from bottles plus my dad Regan invested it wisely.
2nd max out ur baby’s resp each year
3rd make both sets of grandparents set up trust funds
4th ask only for cash for ur daughters birthdays, Xmas etc…
5th apple juice and yogurt will rot ur baby’s teeth
6th make sure your Inlaws live close by so babysitting is free!
7th put 2 suites in basement and contribute all money to ur child’s bank account each month(always declare it to cra)
8th use cloth diapers instead of disposable you will save money big time!
Congrats on the baby g’s

#35 MF on 09.19.16 at 8:58 pm

My parents both get CPP. They are 72 and 69. Dad worked for 40 years contributing to the pot and deserves what he gets and more. Mom gets less because she worked less (stopped when I about 8, 25 years ago).

Do they need it? No, not really because they saved and invested their whole lives and are now retired comfortably. However I’m sure there are millions of others who were not as fortunate for whatever reason.

As for myself. I’ll be honest, I do not think CPP will have any value when I need to retire in 35 years or so. It will be long gone and I do not factor it into anything. These changes are just useless political stunts that will do nothing other than harm our small businesses by forcing them to pay out more to match employee deductions.

MF

#36 Smoking Man on 09.19.16 at 8:59 pm

Garth how would anyone in there right mind trust the Dept of stats in the USA.

Look at the biasness MSM is going after Trump, and supporting crook Hillary with all those scandals hanging over her head.

The USA is dictatorship with a false narrative of choice. Building 7 open my eyes.

Call me a tinfoiler, I proudly ware that hat..

In Canada.
20% more for pensions contributions. Employer and Employee.

Good bye Jobs. I’m having a board meeting next week. Honey, we’re cutting our salary to nothing and taken what we want out in dividens..

If there was only a way to do that in a TFSA

#37 Say What? on 09.19.16 at 9:03 pm

“But Janet Yellin will use her media conference following the non-announcement to warn that the days of cheap money are nonetheless coming to an end.” – Garth

———————————————————-

I’m really getting worried now.

#38 WallOfWorry on 09.19.16 at 9:03 pm

#15…..demise of Deutsch Bank
*************************

Just pull up the stock chart as that tells you everything you need to know. Maybe Google Warren Buffet and derivatives? I know that the vast majority would like to think that Canadian housing is the real economic worry….and interest rates are going to start a slow and steady rise that will compound the housing collapse….and there is zero chance that Trump can win.

However, there may be a bigger picture here. Do we really believe that after trillions and trillions of dollars in monetary stimulus with less than 2% in GDP growth and Central Bank balance sheets inflated to levels never seen before that everything is just fine elsewhere and the real issue of concern is Canadian housing? The foreign investment in hard assets in the most desirable country in the world is actually signalling something bigger. Plan accordingly. Oh…and I am the doomer right ?

#39 JO on 09.19.16 at 9:03 pm

Canada is merely following the tried and tested path of government and central bank intervention hell on the way to its inevitable end
Call it Canadzuela – these crooks will not stop until all wealth has been confiscated via massive subsidized credit issuance, artificially low rates, taxes and fees rising at high rates of growth, and eventually money printing

Expect them to continue to get more and more aggressive as we are in the early stages of a global totalitarian system designed to take property and keep us scared as the system continually raises taxes and fees and debasement coupled with growing cutbacks in healthcare and other government services

The greatest debt bubble in history made astronomic claims against a shrinking pie of real assets

Bend over and be a good Canadian
No Vaseline allowed

#40 Lesley Trainor on 09.19.16 at 9:05 pm

So, If Th’ Donald gets Elected then gold goes up a hundred bucks? Sign me up! Time to add.

Also, What about the BOJ, what are they going to do? How dovish can we get before the can gets to big to kick?

#41 Smoking Man on 09.19.16 at 9:07 pm

While I have my tinfoil on, the real question, who is the other Hillary?

#42 Kelsey on 09.19.16 at 9:08 pm

Trump is a terrible candidate, but so is Hillary (although perhaps less so). To me Trump is the symptom, not the cause. Sanders was analogous on the left.

In the bigger picture both these candidates are hated and there’s an interesting shift in the social-political landscape. Millenials are also polling disproportionately for Stein and Johnson, which gives me hope for the future.

This is real life Atlas Shrugged (the Fed, T2 and other various villains abound). The left pushes for expanded powers in the wake of failed policy and the right asks “who’s John Galt?”

In this transitory period some people are rallying around a xenophobic demagogue. But the left underestimates how many so called deplorables are planning to vote in protest. Or they underestimate how many deplorable things Trump gets away with saying because the Social Justice Warriors set the stage with their divisiveness and “safe spaces”.

Whoever wins office gets saddled with the next crises, which is gonna be “huuuugggee”. This will be the end of the Republican-Democrat paradigm. 2020 will be a different ball game.

#43 Jetfixer on 09.19.16 at 9:09 pm

The Fed is so annoying. Even a waffle maker doesn’t waffle as much as them. I used to believe interest rates were going to eventually rise and this circus would end, but I think Larry Summers is right. This might be secular stagnation. We could be a ways off from even a 2% overnight rate, especially if they only do .25% a year!

#44 AfterTheHouseSold on 09.19.16 at 9:10 pm

#118 IHCTD9
GM strike deadline
” … even if they get to go back to work again this year with a new contract, it will likely be the very last one.”

I agree. GM has already reported that it will invest $5 billion by 2018 in Mexico. The company announced last year that it would invest $5.4 billion in U.S. plants.

A strike at the Oshawa plant alone would not have a big impact on GM. From CBC: “But if the workers at its Ingersoll, Ont., CAMI plant support the strike and refuse to install engines and transmissions diverted from U.S. or Mexican plants, it would be more damaging for GM.”

The CAMI plant has a separate contract from UNIFOR’s
main contract, which expires in a year. If GM is intent on leaving Canada and the union is using the CAMI plant as leverage, I’m thinking GM would be looking hard to eliminate that leverage before the next contract comes up. The CAMI plant would make a target of itself, especially since those engines and transmissions are already being built in the U.S. and Mexico.

#45 Linda on 09.19.16 at 9:10 pm

Somehow, I do not see Mr Trump agreeing that he’d need anyone’s permission or support to do as he pleases. That is not how he rolls.

#46 Yuus bin Haad on 09.19.16 at 9:11 pm

How about we just focus on prudent investment and money management and forget about the “Trump this” and the “Brexit that” and all the other editorializing. Unless there’s something one can do to control it, it’s just noise.

#47 it’s only Trump and coal (but I like it)…. on 09.19.16 at 9:16 pm

#7 “Nevertheless I do not understand how anyone could support for this fulgar, unprincipled man.”

Nevertheless I do not understand how anyone could support this vulgar, unprincipled woman.

#48 The Wet Coast on 09.19.16 at 9:20 pm

The zolo statistics for West Vancouver

Sold listings August 19 – September 16 were 5 down 92%. Average sales price $1.4 million, down 42.9% for the month, 54 for the quarter and 45.6% ytd.

The sales volumes are getting so thin over the GVRD that the average numbers jump all over the place. Hard to see how prices will hold up.

#49 hope & ruin on 09.19.16 at 9:30 pm

@ Andrew Woburn

You think china would invade siberia? They’d have to be crazy, a free trade deal and boom unlimited access to resources no need for war. They’re all smiling because China needs resources and Russia has them to sell. Sort of like a Canada-US deal.

#50 Hillary is toast on 09.19.16 at 9:33 pm

Garth must have written the sentence that Trump was toast without learning the latest news:

The guy who deleted the emails from Clintons’s mail server (and miraculously was awarded immunity) started a thread on Reddit on July 24, 2014 “seeking technical advice on how to “strip out a VIP’s (VERY VIP) email address from a bunch of archived email[s].”

A day before the Reddit thread appeared, the Benghazi Committee reached an agreement with the State Department on the production of email and other records related to their investigation.

Hillary’s presidential investors forgot to do a proper due diligence.

#51 Smoking Man on 09.19.16 at 9:40 pm

Gog been listing to the Tues pod casts with Doug and Ryan.

Pretty good, but understand this, more on more people are going to the wild Web for the news information, MSM is showing how totaly enept it is.

You guys got to go a bit more tinfoilish. Lightly at first. I’ll be listing on the buds tomorrow.

On the last pod cast, you guys were a bit shocked at at what happened in the markets. My call from a few weeks earlier. Microphones off, you guys had to be wondering is Smokey is actually an Alien…

Dont lie, I read minds.

#52 Toronto1 on 09.19.16 at 9:43 pm

Trump might so it but he needs a huge turnout to win. Historically its the swing voters that decide US elections so either you get your base out or you bring in new voters. It will be very close 1-2 percent no matter what happens between now and then.

As for CPP its just a glorified ponzi scheme, but 35 years out who knows. Central banks and govt have decided to sacrifice pensions for a low interest world, so many pensions (corporate and govt) have massive underfunded liabilities that cannot be paid, when boomers wave starts to crest watch out.

#53 Randy on 09.19.16 at 9:45 pm

I`m not happy about Rosie O`Donnell and the other celebu-tards moving to Canada. Hope they settle in Toronto.

#54 just noise on 09.19.16 at 9:46 pm

#46 Yuus bin Haad

How about we just focus on prudent investment and money management and forget about the “Trump this” and the “Brexit that” and all the other editorializing. Unless there’s something one can do to control it, it’s just noise.

Prudent investment and money management includes observing the entire world.

Especially at times when the noise on the street is that there are major changes in who controls what and how.

#55 Bankish on 09.19.16 at 9:49 pm

It seems to me that whats happening in the working world today was not even conceivable 45 years ago when I started working at age 18. Back then if you worked hard and had a bit of luck and a few brains you could make something of yourself and have it lead to a good life for your family(and the wife could stay home raising the kids).
I could not give a young person today any other advice than listen to Garth and invest what you can with the long term in mind.
I’ve always invested and expect when I die (a long time from now!) my kids and grandkids will have an easier time funding their own retirements.
In the meantime I think I’ll take them to Disneyworld.

#56 Trojan House on 09.19.16 at 9:49 pm

#13 Smartalox on 09.19.16 at 7:58 pm

Once again, anything government touches goes never goes as planned. You may buy the fact that the “resultant revenue will pad the CPP” but that’s no guarantee to say the least. Pension funds are severely underfunded. It’s likely the CPP will go bust before any of that ever happens.

AND just ask the Alberta government how on relying on future revenue from oil has turned out. In the meantime, a 20% increase will likely be an enough of an excuse for businesses to lay people off.

#57 Not a big deal on 09.19.16 at 9:50 pm

I wonder how much of that increase in pension premiums will go to pad the under funded by 500 billion dollars public sector pension plan. Or maybe a number that high is not a big deal.

#58 Wally WingNut Part Deux on 09.19.16 at 9:57 pm

Wondering if they have tied it into a penalty for taking CPP at 60 yet…

Trump will win. okay, a little vomit in my mouth and a sudden need to take a shower with Lysol…

#59 WallOfWorry on 09.19.16 at 9:57 pm

#40….BOJ….you are witnessing the effects of a currency war. It is the race to the bottom, as government debt has reached levels that are unsustainable based upon current growth rates. Even this blog must be amazed at the ineffectiveness of the Fed to raise rates when employment and inflation targets are being hit. We are data dependent, can’t raise until after election and then after election, regardless of who wins, they will want to wait for new admin to be sworn in. Garth seems to be suggesting that Dec will be the date when rates rise. He may be right but I seriously doubt it. The market is also doubting it because until we see a greater than 75% the odds suggest it won’t happen. Right now December has sits at 70%. Even if Garth is right about December…does anyone really see more than one rate hike in the next 12 months?

#60 Randy on 09.19.16 at 10:03 pm

http://www.otterwoodcapital.com/blog/global-debt-being-issued-at-record-pace/

How bout another bailout

#61 WallOfWorry on 09.19.16 at 10:05 pm

For those of you who think that 2008 can’t happen again….or even worse? If true, Warren Buffet may be the best prognosticator?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-19/italys-pm-unloads-deutsche-banks-unfixable-problem-hundreds-and-hundreds-billions-de

#62 Arb Watson on 09.19.16 at 10:14 pm

No cash? I guess the other option is to trade UVXY.

#63 Self Directed on 09.19.16 at 10:16 pm

It is such a shame to see the Canadian Government leaving so much money on the table, because they are too lazy to go after it.

I never dreamed it was so easy to avoid the capital gains tax on a non-principle resident property:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/potential-solutions-to-deal-with-tax-evasion-in-real-estate-market/article31948354/

Meanwhile the BC MSP program (tax payers having to subsidize what should be paid for already) is completely failing us. And TransLink keeps raising fares and taxes while throwing money at their execs. Any bets Evergreen line WON’T be ready in time for Christmas?

I don’t understand how BC can be “Canada’s newest economic performer”. https://www.bcliberals.com/ it’s getting hard to live here. People will never admit it. https://youtu.be/wQ0h3u2TZwY

#64 Potato on 09.19.16 at 10:16 pm

The new CPP maximum of $82,700 is not in inflation-adjusted (i.e. 2016) dollars. It will be a 14% increase over the current ~$55k (that is, about $63k in today’s dollars).

#65 Victor V on 09.19.16 at 10:18 pm

Larry Berman: Despite market odds, here’s why the Fed could raise rates this week

http://www.bnn.ca/larry-berman-despite-market-odds-here-s-why-the-fed-could-raise-rates-this-week-1.569585

#66 For those about to flop... on 09.19.16 at 10:23 pm

#52 Toronto1 on 09.19.16 at 9:43 pm
Trump might so it but he needs a huge turnout to win. Historically its the swing voters that decide US elections so either you get your base out or you bring in new voters. It will be very close 1-2 percent no matter what happens between now and then.

/////////////////////////////////

I posted a story about 3 months ago that a record number of people have registered to vote in this election.

Gonna be a wild one…

M42BC

#67 gut check on 09.19.16 at 10:26 pm

“No rate hike. But Janet Yellin will use her media conference following the non-announcement to warn that the days of cheap money are nonetheless coming to an end. This will be based on two major facts:”

1. she does it every time; and
2. it’s the best way to keep hope alive

There. fixed it. :)

#68 WUL on 09.19.16 at 10:35 pm

A respite from the Clintons on the US political scene will be a most welcome breath of fresh air for me.

Twenty years from now Chelsea Clinton can become the first American female president at the age of 56.

I’ll be 80 years old then and won’t care.

#69 John in Mtl on 09.19.16 at 10:38 pm

#52 Toronto1 on 09.19.16 at 9:43 pm

Trump might so it but he needs a huge turnout to win. Historically its the swing voters that decide US elections so either you get your base out or you bring in new voters. It will be very close 1-2 percent no matter what happens between now and then.

Wallerstein (a prominent sociologist) has an interesting article on voter behaviour – “my-candidate-is-sure-to-win-so-I-won’t-bother-voting”. An interesting read.

http://iwallerstein.com/trump-vs-clinton-predictions-have-consequences/

#70 Joblo on 09.19.16 at 10:38 pm

End of China Inc?
Nothing good here for Kanada despite T2’s recent globetrotting.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/101east/2016/09/china-economy-160913081105227.html

#71 Smoking Man on 09.19.16 at 10:42 pm

My life is pathetic, no freinds by choice, I gamble huge by day, little by night. Few thousand here and there, nothing compared to forex. I’m a drunkin hear attack waiting to happen. Sadly I’ve never been so happy thus close to death.

I’ve been trained by society and teachers, I’m going about it the wrong way, yet, I don’t ever need another job for the next 1000 years.

But sadly I’m going to look for one. I need a purpose, and a fake reason to stay sobar.

Got a huge scare on my Fear and Loathing trip to Belfountain on Sunday.

I’m doing this weekend. Don’t know how much more I can reward my fletch with excess before God gets jealous and teaches me a lesson.

#72 Smoking Man on 09.19.16 at 10:44 pm

#67 gut check on 09.19.16 at 10:26 pm
“No rate hike. But Janet Yellin will use her media conference following the non-announcement to warn that the days of cheap money are nonetheless coming to an end. This will be based on two major facts:”

1. she does it every time; and
2. it’s the best way to keep hope alive

There. fixed it. :)
…..
Read you email girl, got you a tee shirt….

#73 John in Mtl on 09.19.16 at 10:46 pm

While we’re at it, Wallerstein, as a sociologist, has an interesting read on our current worlds’ financial predicaments and some potential outcomes.

http://iwallerstein.com/secular-stagnation-or-is-it-worse/

#74 For those about to flop... on 09.19.16 at 10:50 pm

on 09.19.16 at 10:35 pm
A respite from the Clintons on the US political scene will be a most welcome breath of fresh air for me.

Twenty years from now Chelsea Clinton can become the first American female president at the age of 56.

I’ll be 80 years old then and won’t care.

////////////////////////

Hey WULLY…

Charlotte Clinton 2060 will do for me…

M42BC

#75 Entrepreneur on 09.19.16 at 11:04 pm

We collect CPP, OAS, GIS and then that is it, time is up for us. In the newspaper at least 10 to 15 people die a day in this one small area. The boomers are the biggest in numbers and one day the youth will be in control.

# 32 MF…”Why is he so adamant about following all the globalist scripts when it is so destructive?”…The leaders don’t get it but the people do and earth has had enough.

Thanks #21 For those about to flop…printed out the Brexit article on “UK employment reaches record high.”
Weird (or not) haven’t heard anything on the news on this and why isn’t this being discussed in parliament. Why, oh why, is that, most are investors and agree with the international free trade.

Where is the discussion, debate, the transparent talk that T2 said at election time.

#76 Joe2.0 on 09.19.16 at 11:36 pm

What’s Janet Yellen going to continue to do…

1- Indicate rate hikes are coming and benefit from the market move.
2- Indicate rate hikes are not coming and benefit from the market move.

People I hope your all aware that the FED is privately owned.

#77 Smoking Man on 09.19.16 at 11:39 pm

DELETED 5

#78 Smoking Man on 09.20.16 at 12:28 am

DELETED 5

#79 Jules on 09.20.16 at 12:30 am

If Trump wins you anticipate the market volatility to be short lived. But what if the investor is also anticipating being short lived? In that case maybe it would be prudent to cash out now, or should have a few weeks ago in hind sight.

#80 45north on 09.20.16 at 12:35 am

Victor V: from your link: If they do not raise rates and leave it data dependent, they risk increased uncertainty, more collegial scrutiny, and a further loss of reputation.

reputation is most important to the US Fed. I don’t believe it will tolerate further loss.

Joblo: from your link:

Anne Stevenson-Yang: this is craziness on a level not seen elsewhere in the world, it will create a crisis on a level not seen elsewhere in the world

Anne Stevenson-Yang: China has 15% of the world’s population but consumes 50% of global resources. This consumption is coming to an end.

#81 Vundo on 09.20.16 at 12:38 am

Meanwhile, in Edmonton…

#82 Smoking Man on 09.20.16 at 12:38 am

Nothing better than this

https://youtu.be/8UXircX3VdM

#83 millenial82 on 09.20.16 at 1:21 am

Certainly the greatest controllable threat or potential for ourselves is ourselves, so make best of the situation. For every opportunity their is opportunity to shoot oneself in the foot. Case in point, consider all the suckers using low interest rates to bloat their debt loads to feed their consumerism while the few have used this opportunity to rake it in the markets and manage personal debt. Sorry Smoking Man, your hypothesis of supply and demand for residential real estate is down the drain like a bottle of JD. The herd has only so much potential to escalate the prices. Continually escalating real estate prices are all based on affordability which is proven to be based on interest rates and amortization. Once all of the supplemental income factors like rented basement suites, bank of mom and dad, borrowing equity, sub prime loans, working extra jobs etc. are all exhausted the price simply can’t go any higher. Besides, who wants to lay it all out and employ all these methods just to buy a freakin’ house. These people are INSANE.

#84 Blobby on 09.20.16 at 1:48 am

I’m confused .. why would the usd rise if trump gets in?

#85 Loaded and loving it on 09.20.16 at 1:59 am

It’s obvious, get out of Canada while you can, 100% taxation is looming. If your kid just graduated with a four year degree, drive them to the border where they’re actually looking for new grads. They’ll make double in the US and pay half the tax. Starve the Beast and get out while your dollar still buys 50 cents US, very soon they won’t accept Canadian dollars in exchange for US. Meanwhile inflation on imported food is skyrocketing, the dollar will never buy ‘healthy food’ as Moron says.

#86 It's Anti-Establishment in the US on 09.20.16 at 3:15 am

America’s Main Street infuriated at uneven wealth distribution and near 0 real growth in wages vs. Wall Street.

Wall Street ditch pigs (that should have failed/gone bankrupt in 2009) continue to show gratitude by awarding themselves billion $ bonuses.

Clinton seen as a part of that brothel of greed and incompetence (and secrecy) as she loves to give paid speeches to them. To answer last weekends question about what QE gave us:

a recapitalization of the Wall Street losers that gave us 2009.

So Garth, explain to me how do these zombie financial firms add value?

Trump will probably win as he is seen as anti-establishment…all about “sticking it back” to the elites…all that Main Street cares about.

Recent Stats f/RealClearPolitics:

-Clinton % popularity plunging, Trump surging (2 of the most recent polls have Trump by 1 and 7% over Clinton), average of average polls has Clinton at a mere 0.9% lead – includes polls before her “deplorables” comment, 9/11 sidewalk stumble and illness.
-Electoral College Toss-Ups map has Clinton at 200, Trump at 164 and TOSS UPS = 174.

Clinton choked in 2008 vs. Obama frittering away an unsurmountable lead, almost did the same in 2016 losing 22 states to that Lenin/Trotsky reincarnation by the name of Sanders.

Always said Trump would win, I did not believe it myself but now it is more than just possible…it looks probable.

bsant54

#87 Timing Predicted CPP increase... on 09.20.16 at 4:16 am

Well Garth, predicted CPP premiums would have to go up disproportionately a while ago (about 10 to 15 years ago) and at about this time…here we are.

You just needed to look at the then data…TD Bank compared my wealth to that of my peer age group and I realized, ala B of NS, I was richer than I thought…near horrified at the lack of wealth then (Boomer here)…the rest was just connect the dots as to the consequences.

As a then Business School Lecturer (a Dylan Thomas’s “rage, rage” & put something back into society b/retirement job), told the Millennials/tale end of GenX to oppose CPP/OAS premium increases when they happen…instead, they voted in the lavish T2 and rewarded those Boomers that gave themselves a life they so richly deserved but could not afford.

Now they will pay for that decision in the future not only with much higher premiums but in lower wage growth and/or job losses…the former at near 0 in real wage growth for 80% of Canadians.

A timing no brainer…they actually exist…even in the markets.

bsant54

#88 fred stoneman on 09.20.16 at 5:37 am

Ontario will need to implement foreign buyer tax on housing, CIBC says
Province will have ‘little choice’ but to tax foreign buyers, Benjamin Tal says

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/benjamin-tal-housing-cibc-1.3769153

#89 The Nature Boy on 09.20.16 at 6:00 am

I hope Donald wins in November and following his victory he initiates protectionist measures that will negatively impact Canada. What will pretty boy Justin do?

#90 Charles Ponzi on 09.20.16 at 6:04 am

Janet Yellen, Bernanke and Greenspan lost my trust years ago. I really resent the way they herd us like cattle into the slaughterhouse. Death by interest rates.

#91 AfterTheHouseSold on 09.20.16 at 6:30 am

“GM in a statement early Tuesday said … we will be working with government on potential support.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/unifor-tentative-deal-gm-strike-1.3770013

#92 BobC on 09.20.16 at 6:34 am

#45 Linda

And that would be different from what we have now? At least Trump is FOR America.

http://googleweblight.com/?lite_url=http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-mostly-powerless-stopping-obama-midnight-regulations&s=1&f=1&ts=1474367392&sig=AKOVD671nksA45KxOxmbdHToWmxPj-iKQA

#93 Zen Headspace on 09.20.16 at 6:51 am

If our milquetoast government really gave a damn about the quality of its citizens’ retirement, it wouldn’t have gutted the TFSA and reduced the eligible contribution by half.

It’s a ruse, this whole increase in CPP premiums. A shameless tax grab.

Expect more.

The government is an insatiable monster hungry for your money. They are experts at one thing: wasting it.

#94 Prince Polo on 09.20.16 at 6:57 am

@Metaxa:

I read about your chanterelle mushroom financial backing. This is intriguing since I know some mushroom picking spots and always end up with more than I need each year. What to do with the excess?

#95 Grantmi on 09.20.16 at 6:59 am

facts: unemployment targets have been met, with the jobless rate solidly under 5%,

Rigged number… More like 12%.. If you factor in those off the radar that have given up looking.

#96 Foreign tax coming to ontario. HERE COMES THE CRASH on 09.20.16 at 7:09 am

Here comes the crash. Game over

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/benjamin-tal-housing-cibc-1.3769153

#97 Mishuko on 09.20.16 at 7:35 am

Just read in the elevator how Benny tal over at CIBC says Ontario must inact a 15% tax like BC… what the heck is that? Is there any data showing a significant amount of foreign buyers in Ontario or even GTA?

#98 Za Zen McLachlan on 09.20.16 at 7:45 am

BIG NEWS on the HAM FILE!!!!

China has finally forced Canada to agree to an extradition treaty that will see the tens of thousands of China’s most wanted criminals given the boot in chains on a China Airlines flight.

China has been fighting Canadian reluctance through three administrations and has finally broken the back of T Ball Trudeau (Mr Potato Head to the Chinese) desperate to ‘trade’ due to the Trudeau Failing Economy.

China has said that some 46 percent of its most wanted corrupt officials, embezzlers and super bad guys ( like the local governor who murdered an entire village for their land) are in Vancouver real estate.

This is going to be interesting as now CHINA CAN FORCE THE RCMP through Interpol red cards to kick down doors and incarcerate Vancouvers elite HAM.

#99 WallOfWorry on 09.20.16 at 7:46 am

The sad state of the Fed…may have to hike just to maintain relevance?? While everyone else provides stimulus, increasing strength of US dollar and decrease the competitiveness of the US. Did you see the auto loans stats? In this scenario it will push the US towards recession….

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/19/gundlach-says-fed-to-include-hawkish-no-hike-language.html

#100 Liberal Insider on 09.20.16 at 7:53 am

The T2 caucus is starting to frazzle internally. Not just CPP, but forecasts show a major wave of poverty for retirees by 2019. We are hitting a wall.

Cabinet hass received dozens of complaints from groups trying to help Syrian refugees for lack or resources. They are being told they are on their own, and good luck!

Wynne has asked T2 for help with Ontario’s $300+ billion debt. He is suggesting she hold the election early, in 2017, and he will help her stall. But no cash.

It’s not just Wayne Smith at StatsCan resigning, others are banging at the doors too, completely frustrated with the gap between fiscal reality and ‘sunny ways’ talk.

Internal forecasts have lead to stress testing for one million private sector job losses by 2018.

We are in for it.

More next week…..

#101 busman7 on 09.20.16 at 7:58 am

” So the average retiree collects less than $15,000 a year, which ain’t enough to live on anywhere.”

Did you mean in Canuckistan? If not it’s certainly a false statement!

#102 Jason on 09.20.16 at 8:07 am

>So the average retiree collects less than $15,000 a year, >which ain’t enough to live on anywhere

Not true, somewhere south of USA anybody could find a peaceful and decent place for 1k/month, with ocean view :)

#103 jess on 09.20.16 at 8:13 am

accredited investor

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/bond-losses-show-vulnerability-of-singapore-s-not-really-rich

#104 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.20.16 at 8:13 am

IT WAS the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way- in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

#105 Tony on 09.20.16 at 8:58 am

Re: #9 RentYVR on 09.19.16 at 7:42 pm

If Trump wins the stock market will crash. He intends to clean up Wall Street. Gold usually moves opposite the moves in the stock market.

No, it will not crash. Drama queen. — Garth

#106 WallOfWorry on 09.20.16 at 8:59 am

A very good article from The Telegraph on the perils of high debt in a low growth environment, and the ultra sensitivity in shifts in monetary policy. Read it and try to figure out what the Fed should do as you think about the inter-dependence to the global economy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/18/bis-flashes-red-alert-for-a-banking-crisis-in-china/

#107 AK on 09.20.16 at 9:33 am

Two of Fed’s own primary dealers warn the mother of all surprises awaits markets this week

#108 Ole Doberman on 09.20.16 at 9:59 am

Big trouble coming for Canada:

“For the first time in history, the total private debt of the Canadian public has exceeded the total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) after reaching 100.7%. ”

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/canadas-household-debt-exceeds-total-gdp-for-first-time/

#109 Metaxa on 09.20.16 at 10:07 am

@ #93 Prince Polo:
I read about your chanterelle mushroom financial backing. This is intriguing since I know some mushroom picking spots and always end up with more than I need each year. What to do with the excess?

1) Sell to a mushroom buyer…they set up (usually) just off the main roads leading into/out of the bush.
2) Sell via the back door to local restaurants.

For a recreational volume you probably would get a better $ return at the restaurants.

Have fun in the trees, you are going to live longer and better, eh?

#110 TrucMuce on 09.20.16 at 10:15 am

Garth says:

“which will increase premiums for workers and employers by 20%, and eventually (in about two decades) up the amount paid out.”

Wait wait… so a 25 year old new graduate now has to pay 20% more to the CPP, while the retiree who made 50k a year and didn’t save enough instantly collects 33% more?

Am I understanding this correctly?

Dislike.

#111 Jesse Smallwood on 09.20.16 at 10:17 am

99 Liberal insider

Moroneau also admits that this egregious rip off for CPP contributions will swell unemployment and slam GDP for the foreseeable future but promises sunny ways sometime in the future when ponies will crap peonies for Trudeau the Fartcatcher to wear on his hair.

This is on top of telling the people contributing now that haven’t a chance of collecting and when the person who does collect the money will all be clawed back, what math challenged loser voted for these turds?

#112 Nanny State Economics on 09.20.16 at 11:07 am

“OAS costs the government $40 billion a year and…this is expected to rise to $110 billion.”

No problem. Print and distribute helicopter money, the latest monetary policy trick for the world’s central banks. Instead of printing it and giving it to the corporations for free to finance share buybacks, you give it to the common peeps to spend in the real economy. Will it work? In the end, of course not. Short term, sure, but we’ll just be digging a bigger hole.

Agree with you on TFSAs. Any young whippersnapper currently in their 20s that follows the Wealthy Barber’s advice and puts 10% of each cheque into a balanced diversified portfolio in a TFSA will be very happy they did come retirement time.

#113 fancy_pants on 09.20.16 at 11:43 am

Savers have been slapped in the face for years but shame, shame for not saving. Hello, anybody there? nope, and in addition to non existant rates with the promise of tomorrow’s inflation and taxes and who could expect anything else. I would suggest that you not get comfortable with the idea that your money is safe/untouchable in a particular sheltered investment (ex. TFSA). If you think the gov’t won’t pillage particular financial vehicles when SHTF, I would suggest you entertain alternate considerations.

Debt is a drug that the world has been on way too long. Ever printing more debt to service debt is both exponential and unsustainable. When things really unravel (ETA unknown) then the remaining uncertainty becomes how quickly civil unrest and societal collapse will ensue.

#114 cheeks on 09.20.16 at 11:47 am

What about the people who has tfsa and no idea how to invest without losing everything? Where does one learn this?

#115 berdiel on 09.20.16 at 11:52 am

Garth

I think you need to update your thinking with the times. Traditional retirement with the feet up on the lazyboy after 65 is a thing of the past. Ppl will need to redefine themselves and launch new projects right till the end…assuming they are not ill.
Don’t believe me…well Richard Branson does!
https://www.virgin.com/richard-branson/life-not-journey-retirement

Enjoy the journey!

#116 Sonny on 09.20.16 at 12:12 pm

Class-action lawsuit filed against B.C. government over foreign home buyers’ tax

http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/class-action-lawsuit-filed-against-b-c-government-over-foreign-home-buyers-tax

#117 db on 09.20.16 at 12:28 pm

Hello,
The table below represents what TFSA Contribution room will look like over the 36 year period if it indexes to inflation rounded to nearest 500$. Assumption based on 2% inflation and same 6.5% growth quoted, 3rd column is rounded contrib. room, last column value of TFSA at the end of that year.
0.02 0.065
01-Jan-16 5500 5500 5500
01-Jan-17 -$5,722.20 5500 -$11,535.19
01-Jan-18 -$5,836.64 6000 -$18,489.74
01-Jan-19 -$5,953.38 6000 -$25,910.05
01-Jan-20 -$6,072.44 6000 -$33,827.32
01-Jan-21 -$6,193.89 6000 -$42,274.81
01-Jan-22 -$6,317.77 6500 -$51,803.22
01-Jan-23 -$6,444.13 6500 -$61,969.76
01-Jan-24 -$6,573.01 6500 -$72,817.18
01-Jan-25 -$6,704.47 6500 -$84,391.06
01-Jan-26 -$6,838.56 7000 -$97,255.24
01-Jan-27 -$6,975.33 7000 -$110,980.96
01-Jan-28 -$7,114.84 7000 -$125,625.91
01-Jan-29 -$7,257.13 7500 -$141,766.83
01-Jan-30 -$7,402.28 7500 -$158,988.74
01-Jan-31 -$7,550.32 7500 -$177,364.03
01-Jan-32 -$7,701.33 7500 -$196,969.95
01-Jan-33 -$7,855.35 8000 -$218,404.08
01-Jan-34 -$8,012.46 8000 -$241,273.70
01-Jan-35 -$8,172.71 8000 -$265,674.94
01-Jan-36 -$8,336.16 8500 -$292,225.54
01-Jan-37 -$8,502.89 8500 -$320,554.28
01-Jan-38 -$8,672.95 8500 -$350,780.25
01-Jan-39 -$8,846.40 9000 -$383,545.68
01-Jan-40 -$9,023.33 9000 -$418,505.47
01-Jan-41 -$9,203.80 9000 -$455,806.58
01-Jan-42 -$9,387.88 9500 -$496,120.99
01-Jan-43 -$9,575.63 9500 -$539,135.32
01-Jan-44 -$9,767.15 10000 -$585,545.57
01-Jan-45 -$9,962.49 10000 -$635,064.01
01-Jan-46 -$10,161.74 10000 -$687,898.78
01-Jan-47 -$10,364.97 10500 -$744,787.17
01-Jan-48 -$10,572.27 10500 -$805,485.47
01-Jan-49 -$10,783.72 11000 -$870,764.02
01-Jan-50 -$10,999.39 11000 -$940,414.40
01-Jan-51 -$11,219.38 11000 -$1,014,729.39
291500

#118 james on 09.20.16 at 12:32 pm

Clip this handy reference card and store in your wallet, purse, or car. Of course, never leave it within the reach of children.

DELETED CODES & OFFENCE DETAILS

1. Language – offensive, potty-mouthed, juvenile, worthy of the HuffPost site.
2. Slur – deliberate demeaning of an identifiable group (gays, Chinese, immigrants, Costco shoppers etc.).
3. Ad hominem – disrespectful comments attacking a person, rather than his/her ideas or opinions. Especially mine.
4. Anti-canine
5. Verbal garbage – blathering comments, unrelated to blog topic, which nobody cares about. Seriously.
6. Ennui – Stop, already. You’ve posted too much today or this week.
7. Garth’s List – I don’t like you. This is your invitation to go away.
8. Firster – yes, Jimmy, you.
9. Bully – any combo of the above used to intimidate others and assert your pathetic masculinity or dubious superiority.
10. Evil linker – trying to bury a link in your post to porn, white power, gold nut, Adele or doomer sites.
11. Illegal dumping – no, we don’t want to scroll through a complete Trump speech or a twisted Zero guy column. Post a reference.
12. Blog terrorist – your IP’s also been sent to the CRA, CSIS, the RCMP plus you have been subscribed here. Suffer.

If you have a complaint, you know where to go.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Me thinks you missed another DELETED 5 for the one below. He is going back to his old habits Garth.
…………………………………………………………………
#36 Smoking Man on 09.19.16 at 8:59 pm

Garth how would anyone in there right mind trust the Dept of stats in the USA.

Look at the biasness MSM is going after Trump, and supporting crook Hillary with all those scandals hanging over her head.

The USA is dictatorship with a false narrative of choice. Building 7 open my eyes.

Call me a tinfoiler, I proudly ware that hat..

In Canada.
20% more for pensions contributions. Employer and Employee.

Good bye Jobs. I’m having a board meeting next week. Honey, we’re cutting our salary to nothing and taken what we want out in dividens..

If there was only a way to do that in a TFSA

#119 db on 09.20.16 at 12:37 pm

Taking the accumulated sum calculated of $1,014,729.39 and living off interest (6.5%):
$66,000.00 annual interest income
$74,150.00 annual annuity over 35 years
this drops to $660,345 accumulated and
$42,900.00 annual interest income
$37,800.00 annual annuity over 35 years
if you use 4.5% average annual interest

#120 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 09.20.16 at 12:39 pm

DELETED 2

#121 Blacksheep on 09.20.16 at 12:50 pm

So much for Christy’s 15% foreign buyers tax.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/class-action-lawsuit-launched-against-b-c-foreign-buyers-property-tax-1.3769751

The tax breaks about 30 national trade agreements,
including NAFTA.

#122 crossbordershopper on 09.20.16 at 12:50 pm

All Garth has to do is to drive down Barton Street in Hamilton and i can show you 10,000 people that live on $15000 per year. Rent is $650 for a one bedroom flop house, discount food that Mr. Weston provides us every week, free medication due to low income, Yes its a subsistance life in a beautiful safe country, but its all that millions of retired canadians know. and nothing will change until they die. This is the reality. Savings, TFSA bla bla bla. i am talking about a 69 year old guy with nothing. his life is effectively over, he is just looking at the clock waiting for the end, with such little money and opportunity, he is done he knows that, and so does everyone else.
this whole travelling in retirement ad’s etc, i laugh, the best one is buying a vineyard in your retirement, the craziest thing, i miss that ad, i laughed so hard, buying a vineyard in retirement !!

Nice tale, but irrelevant. That is not living, it’s existing. Most of us can change our own destinies, and this blog is about helping people do so. — Garth

#123 TurnerNation on 09.20.16 at 12:53 pm

I noted a HUGE increase in the electricity bill of my little rental kando. That’ll teach me to use such decadent First World luxuries like A/C. What are we fighting for again?

As I predict rural and cottage property values will decimate, in response to soaring hydro prices, banning of gas cars, low-range electric vehicles and limited shared charging stations.

Herded into cities, Agenda 21. With the stroke of a pen we will be taken back to 3rd world status. Hey, some countries get bombed back to the stone age don’t feel so bad. At least they are going a bit easier with us.
(They hate our way of life)

It’s not her, it’s elites waaay up in the pyramid who have written this plan. Stooges execute.

http://www.cp24.com/news/wynne-booed-at-international-plowing-match-over-hydro-rates-1.3079669

MINTO, Ont. — Premier Kathleen Wynne is getting booed at the International Plowing Match over hydro rates

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.20.16 at 1:27 pm

Mushrooms are a priced commodity, and could be sold to bolster the meager pension income.
Just stay away from the red ones with black spots.
And look out for ticks.

#125 Smoking Man on 09.20.16 at 1:39 pm

#96 Mishuko on 09.20.16 at 7:35 am
Just read in the elevator how Benny tal over at CIBC says Ontario must inact a 15% tax like BC… what the heck is that? Is there any data showing a significant amount of foreign buyers in Ontario or even GTA?
……

Don’t matter. Won’t do jack. Perception is reality, no one in GTA thinks prices are driven by ham so no effect here. Vancouver is a different story. They see a casino bus with chinese letters on the road they 100 present beilive they are on a house hunting trip.

Perception is reality,

#126 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.20.16 at 1:48 pm

RE related news from B.C.
Property taxes are now the largest contributor to the financial coffin. Get it, Coffin.
The name of the new Superintendent of Real Estate is
Mr. Noseworthy.
Rumor has it, he just got in by a nose.
Stop snorting, blog dogs.

#127 Where's The Money Guido? on 09.20.16 at 1:55 pm

Re: #7 David McDonald on 09.19.16 at 7:36 pm
Clinton says half of Trump supporters are deplorable: racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic. Nevertheless I do not understand how anyone could support for this fulgar, unprincipled man.
How can anyone support Killary Clinton when she and her husband Bill stole from their charity, imported tons of cocaine (google Gary Wbb, Iran-Contra), and murdered their supposed close friend and Bill’s counsel during his presidency, Vince Foster (Killary’s lover) (supposedly 47 deaths linked to the Clintons: http://truthfeed.com/46-clinton-friends-that-wound-up-dead/8944/), when he was going to testify in Congress.
And don’t forget her bloody hands while Secretary Of State. Who set up ISIS?
Oh yeah, Clinton is so-o-o-o much better than a loopy billionaire-who’s dad made most of his money LEGALLY, at least he’s not a cold blooded murderer-charity thief.

#128 Where's The Money Guido? on 09.20.16 at 1:56 pm

Gary Webb

#129 MoneyMyHoney on 09.20.16 at 1:57 pm

https://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2016/09/20/get-used-to-low-interest-rates-says-bank-of-canada-governor.html

Low interest rates are here to stay.

Please don’t go on saying interest rates are going to go up. You said this for so many years.

#130 father o'mally on 09.20.16 at 2:20 pm

DELETED

#131 Victor V on 09.20.16 at 2:21 pm

Expect lower interest rates for some time to come, Bank of Canada signals

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/expect-lower-interest-rates-for-some-time-to-come-bank-of-canada-signals

#132 NoName on 09.20.16 at 2:36 pm

There are 1 in 3,200 chances that someone will be hit by piece of falling space debris, and chance some will win lotto max is 1 in 14,000,000. funny thing that space real estate is, definitely abides by what goes up must come down rule.

Normally, a decommissioned satellite or space station would be retired by forcing it to burn up in the atmosphere. This type of burn is controlled, and most satellite re-entries are scheduled to burn up over the ocean to avoid endangering people. However, it seems that China’s space agency is not sure exactly when Tiangong-1 will re-enter the atmosphere, which implies that the station has been damaged somehow and China is no longer able to control it.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/satellites/a22936/tiangong-falling-to-earth/

#133 westcdn on 09.20.16 at 2:37 pm

I like this guy even though he can be a potty mouth. I don’t like to cut and paste but this guy has a restricted blog. I have done some editing.

“Deutsche Bank Makes the Case for Recession, All Four Warning Signals Have Been Activated

Dr. Fly Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:28am EST 2 Comments 1331

The last time all four of Deutsche Bank’s warning signals for recession failed was in 1986, which was a very weird time for the world as the Reagan swag and morning in America optimism beat back the bears like the devil dogs they were. Also, it’s worth noting, just one year hence the stock market crashed and it was only by the grace of God that it didn’t lead to a deleterious economic downturn.

The Germans are out with stats and charts this morning, trying to warn you cheese doodle eating Americans to the storm that is coming.

How much of an anomaly was 1986? Deutsche Bank has the answers.

a) 1986 was the only episode over the past 60 years in which U.S. corporate margins declined (from 8.6 percent in the second quarter of 1984 to 6.7 percent in in the fourth quarter of 1986) without this leading to a recession

b) it was the only episode over the past 40 years during which capex growth turned negative (driven by falling energy investments) without this leading to a recession

c) it was the only episode over the past 30 years in which speculative default rates rose meaningfully above 5 percent without this leading to a recession.

Personally, I’m waiting for the yield curve to invert as my warning sign, which is part of the reason why I’m long TLT. The interesting thing about this rot of an economy is that it’s accompanied by rigged stats using rigged central banks, making those who warn of trouble like recessions look like lunatics.

Nevertheless, you’ve been warned.”
———————————————————

I think I am going to lighten up. Time to sell more of my commodity shares – the dividend less.

#134 The Nature Boy on 09.20.16 at 2:38 pm

#122 TurnerNation on 09.20.16 at 12:53 pm

It is all part of the NWO which is the establishment of total world socialism.
Good reading: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu_VqX6J93k

#135 Entrepreneur on 09.20.16 at 2:38 pm

Picked mushrooms when younger but it has slowed down since the Americans stopped/slowed down in buying Canadian, which I don’t blame them as a person’s own nation comes first. But I don’t understand (or do) why is our B.C. raw logs being trucked/shipped away while our mills are being closed down/loss of jobs/communities. Oh, right, the green/environment talk to look good (but, but, then use pipelines, dams but, but that is okay).

We can see through a child with this double-talk to get away with destruction but an adult in leadership.

Thanks for head-up #99 Liberal Insider…always wanted to know what is going on “behind back doors.”

Got to go fishing and another sad tale about the lack of fish and leaders.

#136 Barb on 09.20.16 at 2:59 pm

…and all the while Snow Boarder Boy T2 has exceeded his desire to “invest” $10B on infrastructure each year for 3 years.

Then he gives Afghanistan and Iraq $500 million.
Nice bribe to try and get a UN seat.

I contend nobody cares whether Canada gets a UN seat.
But we do care what he is doing to taxpayers…both business and individuals.

#137 mike from mtl on 09.20.16 at 3:01 pm

I love quotes like this:
———————————-
To ensure an adequate retirement, Poloz suggested Canadians consider saving more, working longer than planned and changing their investment mix to adjust to the persistently low interest rates.
———————————-

Translation, capital outflows. I know for myself I am drastically going to limit my exposure to maple.

#138 jess on 09.20.16 at 3:09 pm

On deferral ….

..”A corporation with lots of unrepatriated earnings does not have to repatriate those earnings to engage in domestic investment or payouts to shareholders. It can just borrow money for its domestic activities, and this borrowing is almost costless because creditors know that the unrepatriated earnings can be tapped at any time.

Apple has given us a great example of how this works. In April, the company announced that it wanted to begin a $60 billion share buyback program. The only problem? “According to analyst estimates, Apple has $145 billion of cash – but only $45 billion on hand in the US, and thus not enough to fully fund the share buy-back program,” Reuters reported. In theory, share buybacks and dividends are exactly what corporations cannot do with unrepatriated income. In practice, however, Apple was easily able to fund its buyback program without paying a dime of tax.

In April, Apple issued $17 billion in corporate bonds—the largest bond offering in American corporate history. The interest rate Apple paid on 10-year bonds was only 2.415 percent, or only 74 basis points above the rate on 10-year Treasury bonds that day. But that is just the sticker price. In fact, the interest on the bonds is then tax deductible—at a 35 percent corporate tax rate, the business-interest deduction covers 84.5 basis points of the borrowing costs, lowering the after-tax interest costs to 1.57 percent, or 10 basis points lower than Treasuries. With expected inflation above this level, Uncle Sam and bond buyers actually paid Apple to hold onto their money for 10 years.”
====================

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2014/01/09/81681/offshore-corporate-profits-the-only-thing-trapped-is-tax-revenue/

look back: 2010
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-12-29/dodging-repatriation-tax-lets-u-s-companies-bring-home-cash

#139 MF on 09.20.16 at 3:14 pm

#130 Victor V on 09.20.16 at 2:21 pm

Of course. That is the only playbook these guys have. Doesn’t matter since they will be creamed during the next downturn/crisis since they are totally out of ammo.

Just a matter of time. Oh and housing should drop 50% as people realize there is no relief available too.

MF

#140 Seniors-No Heat on 09.20.16 at 3:34 pm

Garth’s post is spot on (sadly) for many folks. We just bought a home where the owner (a senior) was in financial distress. The previous senior owner left financial documents around and my husband noticed in passing that this senior’s income appears to be $12,000/yr. The Shaw bill was $300ish a month and the property taxes are $400ish a month…..do the math. We also just found out from ATCO there was no heat in the home for At Least a year or more (the senior was living there until last month).

#141 CJBob on 09.20.16 at 3:35 pm

#120 Blacksheep on 09.20.16 at 12:50 pm
The tax breaks about 30 national trade agreements,
including NAFTA.
_____________________
I’m not a lawyer but each trade agreement has it’s own set of enforcement rules. In a court in B.C. international agreements are meaningless, the question is whether the tax is legal based on provincial and Canadian law.

A separate set of challenges should and undoubtedly will come based on the rules of each agreement.

#142 Sheane Wallace on 09.20.16 at 3:48 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/savers-must-adjust-retirement-plans-172205391.html

There ya go. Non retirement due to BOC policies. And the guy has the nerve to tell you that you can’t retire as he and his institution can’t allow you to.

#143 Smoking Man on 09.20.16 at 3:53 pm

#127 Where’s The Money Guido? on 09.20.16 at 1:56 pm
Gary Webb

The last real journalist in America, shot himself 3 times in the head, cause of death suicide.

#144 Smoking Man on 09.20.16 at 4:17 pm

If the Fed was following footnote 8 the Fed Fund rate should be at – 9%

I’m still sticking with my call, one, done, reverse.

Zero guy…. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-20/janet-yellens-footnote-8-negative-rate-smoking-gun-everyone-missed

#145 jess on 09.20.16 at 4:51 pm

data miners vs non profit

Free Isn’t Freedom: How Silicon Valley Tricks Us
Written by Robert Epstein
6 September 2016 // 11:00 AM CE
http://motherboard.vice.com/en_ca/read/free-isnt-freedom-epstein-essay

non profit
https://about.commonsearch.org/

https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/how-the-cia-made-google-e836451a959e#.ze7dl196g
================
“SILICON VALLEY — MuckRock, a Boston nonprofit that helps journalists and others get access to public records….It is offering up to 250 free Freedom of Information Act requests— worth about $1,000 between one and three journalists it selects to investigate paypal Thiel.
Vice Media’s Motherboard website has offered to match that amount for the journalists accepted by MuckRock.”

http://upstart.bizjournals.com/companies/media/2016/09/19/nonprofit-offers-to-fund-public-records.html

#146 robert james on 09.20.16 at 5:15 pm

This might take the fun out of money laundering with Vancouver real estate… http://www.inews880.com/syn/112/222711/222711

#147 LP on 09.20.16 at 5:21 pm

#142 Smoking Man on 09.20.16 at 3:53 pm
#127 Where’s The Money Guido? on 09.20.16 at 1:56 pm
Gary Webb

The last real journalist in America, shot himself 3 times in the head, cause of death suicide.
**************************************

Your post reminds me of a passage in the wonderful novel by John LeCarre, “Single & Single”. In the book there is an account of a chap who died of suicide by shooting himself in the head while in a canoe and handcuffed behind his back. The gun was never found.

#148 Wrk.dover on 09.20.16 at 5:33 pm

I have a can of bear spray here at my at my desk top for tonight’s next posting by Garth…

#149 papawhiskeytango on 09.20.16 at 6:07 pm

love the prognostications Garth, may your tea leaves read eternal.

not to tell you how to do your job, but something i noticed working in O&G back when there was money: the cost guys would always refer to money in plural terms re: “…this is expected to rise to $110 billion(s)”
simply adding the ‘s’ in there always makes it seem like real money.

party on Garth.

#150 steerage steward on 09.21.16 at 12:58 am

Always find it interesting that 95% of people will answer yes to the question “do you want more money, that you have to pay back?”.

Guess I’m just odd. Have specific needs and wants that don’t expand just because more debt is available.