Mr. Market taketh, and Mr. Market giveth. On Friday the Dow plunged (with Bay Street following) only to see a 240-point recovery on Monday. Talk late last week of interest rates stiffening like a teenager in heat suddenly turned into waffling. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton’s stumble on the weekend, plus news she was ill (and the campaign hushed it), sent a chill through markets.
“I wanna see that woman on TV on a StairMaster,” said an analyst I hang with. “Or else we’re all a little closer to being screwed.”
So, risk is on again. At least more than last month. Most financial guys still believe the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of the year, and most Canadian bankers think the bond market will follow. So, it’s fair to say five-year, fixed-rate home loans won’t stay at this insane level for long. That poses housing risk.
As far as financial assets go, higher bond yields (and lower prices) will turn preferred shares into winners, and stock markets have already priced in a few moves by the Fed at the end of 2016 and into 2017. It’s only people born since 1990 who think the cost of money can never rise. Kids. Sheesh.
The unknown (larger) factors are central bank fatigue and Trumpism. Either of those could whack stocks, just like Brexit. Last week exchanges tanked when it appeared stimulus spending in Europe might be contained, and when odds of an early Fed hike spiked. This has happened before, when US central bankers said they’d cut back on their massive bond-buying program causing Wall Street to panic. In the end, the Fed did just what it threatened, and markets got over it. The same will be true when rates inch up.
As for President Trump, more problematic. It’s also uncharted. There’s never been a person less politically qualified or experienced to be in charge of the globe’s biggest economy than this guy. He is inconsistent, opportunistic and divisive. His appeal is profound to a broad swath of people who feel disenfranchised and disillusioned, and mourn a dying middle class. The solutions are simple. Not enough jobs? Rip trade deals. Afraid? Ban Muslims. Too many immigrants? Build a wall. Add in celebrity status, a deep vein of independence plus a penchant for social media, and Trump’s a contender.
His opponent, to the dismay of others, has been unable to stop the barbarian on the right as she was the commie on the left. She’s weaved and dodged on issues she should just own (like the emails) and now her health’s on the table. Already 90% of people find her untrustworthy, so trying to cover up a bout of pneumonia just feeds the meme.
In short, the US election has legs. So what should you do?
First just sit and watch for a while. Markets are usually pretty good predictors. In fact if we see down numbers from August to the end of Halloween then there’s an 86% change Trump will win (according to past campaigns). On the other hand, if the market generally rises during this period, the odds of the incumbent party retaining control are 82%.
So far, a Clinton win has been assumed.
The S&P 500 is up 5.6% this year, and ahead 12.5% over the past twelve months. We saw new record highs just a few days ago. As Bloomberg reported: “It’s already priced into the market that Hillary Clinton is going to be president so right now anything that changes that narrative is going to give the market a pause to consider what that would mean.”
So will the 9/11 ceremony stumble on Sunday turn into another Clinton political morass? Maybe. But then, Donald Trump could as easily blow himself up. Or keel over. Never before have two 70-somethings gone through this grueling exercise.
In short, a lot may be about to happen. The next three months could bring far more volatility or, if the Street is right, a significant year-end rally. What should you do?
Trying to time the markets isn’t investing. It’s gambling. You have no more idea of what’s going to take place than anyone else. So don’t even try. Going to cash is also a nebulous idea, since you might end up buying into a rising tide. Research also shows when markets tank, people sitting on cash stay sitting instead of investing, emotionally unable to do what others are not. Of all motivators, fear is the greatest.
This is why having a balanced and diversified portfolio is the best strategy for almost all investors. With a sane mix of safe things and growth assets, a broad diversification among asset classes and across several regions, you dampen volatility and take the bite out of any bear. For example, after the Brexit surprise equity markets plunged 6%, while a balanced portfolio lost about 1% – and quickly recovered. In 2008-9, when the TSX crated 55% and took seven years to repair, a balanced portfolio fell 20% and regained it all in a year.
Market timing doesn’t work. Period. It’s a myth. Any stock-jockey advisor who tells you to rush into cash, then let him flip equities for market-beating performance is playing you.
President Trump? May Allah help us. Meanwhile help yourself. Be cool.
167 comments ↓
A wall will be a waste of time and money because the Mexican cartels are going to charge passage for those entering the USA. All along the so-called wall tunnels will be constructed beneath the wall and for a price called paying union dues they walk from one side of the border to another.
The reason I did not tell everyone a warning of a ‘SELL’ signal on Thursday night was because there was no sell signal, at least not on my system. It was just a knee-jerk reaction to some random news or event, and those things clear up in just 2 or 3 days. And that’s exactly what’s happening, the market is rising back up to where they were on Thursday. So relax, no need to worry about hitting the SELL button just yet.
As for the U.S. economy; seems to be picking up just great, and along with that will come one interest rate rise probably just after the election takes place.
Then in 2017 there will be 2 more rate hikes and that’s it, no more after that.
Let’s just flush and move on
The U.S FED should have to meet in secret and let financial market’s interpret the data on their own. There sure seem’s to be enough expert’s in the World to figure out if the data is correct.
“As for President Trump, more problematic. It’s also uncharted. There’s never been a person less politically qualified or experienced to be in charge of the globe’s biggest economy than this guy.”
Really? What a bout George W. Bush or my favorite, Ronald Reagan who spent the final two years in office suffering from dimemsia?
Both were state governors. Get serious. — Garth
Don’t worry about a rate hike this year because of the election.After that one more at that will be it.A 0.25% rate hike means over 100 billion in debt to the 20 trillion.
The plunger team came in today and did a great job.Nothing will bring this market down ,never ever maybe 10% and then more qe and the start up the printing machine.
Count me in the basket of deplorables!
Canadians might be scared to death of Trump, but our American friends have more sense than us. They got hit with it a decade ago and still got the smarts from it.
Blaming market fluctuations on him is just people suffering from confirmation bias.
Hillary is in real trouble. both with her health and her campaign. Parkinsons with the complication of Vascular Dementia is no laughing matter. In fact it has a survival rate of about 5 years. She was diagnosed in 2013 with Vascular dementia and her team has been researching Parkinsons medications. Per Wikileaks most recent release. This is serious. Trump will be the next President like it or not. Hell, today in New York the DNC just met and floated the idea of Bill filling in for Hillary! I shit you not!
The market will ebb and flow between now and the election; typically following the debates, Trump foot-in-mouth moments and Hillary health episodes.
As we’ve seen this weekend, any changes will be negated in the next trading session.
If you can buy and sell on a dime, knock yourself out.
If, like me, you have to get your broker/adviser to do it for you, I suggest you tune out of your chosen ticker channel for the next couple of months and enjoy the media show.
With Clinton sick and Trump 2 steps away from insanity, it appears the voters of the US of A have been concentrating on the wrong candidate.
Would not give a plugged nickel for Mike Pence and I’m not sure it Tim Kaine will be able.
Still remember the warnings that George W Bush presidential candidate Dick Cheney was a walking heart attack, ready to drop dead at any time. We are still waiting.
“I wanna see that woman on TV on a StairMaster,” said an analyst I hang with. “Or else we’re all a little closer to being screwed.”
Thanks for the laugh!! Yes, Hiltary will save us all, vote Trump and the world comes to an end – geez, I believe we are witnessing the worst case of mass hysteria propaganda since Goebbels.. but this time people won’t be so easily fooled.
I am surprised that you so quickly write off Trump.
What about his strengths?
1. He is a successful business man.
2. He is an excellent negotiator – familiar with performing intense negotiations on a global scale – with many different countries.
3. He listens to his staff. (look at how he has moderated his message – he is even using the teleprompter now!)
4. He understands the need to have smart and experienced people working for him and advising him.
5. He is not afraid to admit he is wrong, and take steps to remedy those wrongs.
6. He has a vested interest in the well being of all american citizens, since his businesses employ and sell to many of them.
7. He has a sincere desire to ‘make america great’ again.
8. He doesn’t change for the sake of change – if something is working, he will incorporate it into his strategies.
If you look deeper into his businesses and the people he employs you would see a skilled, intelligent and diverse workforce, consisting of people from many different racial and societal backgrounds.
More than a few of your blogs indicate a bias towards career politicians.
Just because Trump isn’t a career politician doesn’t immediately invalidate his other successful traits.
Garth says:
“As for President Trump, more problematic. It’s also uncharted. There’s never been a person less politically qualified or experienced to be in charge of the globe’s biggest economy than this guy. He is inconsistent, opportunistic and divisive. His appeal is profound to a broad swath of people who feel disenfranchised and disillusioned, and mourn a dying middle class.”
I say:
“He will do way better than Barrack Hussein or the Clinton Cartel (both) backed by the Establishment”
Trump for President!!!!
Garth, seriously dude????????????????
You write that Trump is divisive?
LOL.
Have you heard Hillary’s comments about the “basket of deplorables” Friday??????
She aspires to be the President of ALL Americans, yes?
She IS divisive dude.
Thank you.
I was in California in 2002-2004 when Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor of that state. I also could not get to convince myself that a “Conan the Barbarian” could get into politics so easily. Then again, when Obama was running, nobody thought that first black-american may be a president. Guess what? It all happened.
Trump started making his own public image in 2003 with the show “Apprentice” and it was, in my modest opinion, his carefully planned entrance into mass media. Everyone knows “You are Fired!” slogan since then. And he moved on a long way on his crusade.
Americans are TV maniacs, they have the pride and conviction they are the best of all, winners. Do not underestimate Trump strategy, as he appeals to the “we are the best”, slightly nationalist audience and do not assume markets are right all the time. Brexit may happen again, on a bigger scale.
And I’m slowly leaning towards those odds, unfortunately.
“His appeal is profound to a broad swath of people who feel disenfranchised and disillusioned, and mourn a dying middle class.”
This is the really scary part. If Trump get elected, it is because they so many of the types Americans Garth describes. At least Garth is more polite than Hilary when talking about Trump supporters.
Garth, for all trumps negatives, he portrays himself as a symbol of strength and defiance and someone who can take on the wackos of the world. Hillary looks weak and like she is ready for the home. Wait till trump meets her in the debate. This election is over.
What’s so bad about the middl class suddenly?
It used to be the popular basis of Capitalism.
Who say’s you can’t afford to buy a home? http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/new-breed-of-house-buying-no-inspection-no-auction-100-a-brick/news-story/6097e97f8097cd0cb1fcb08ecc931bc0
So what are the odds that the CRA actually does something about the rampant fraud and money laundering going on in Vancouver Real Estate that the Globe and Mail revealed this past weekend?
Are they going to do more than a single global income audit of people in Vancouver claiming to be students and homemakers while buying multimillion dollar properties? Are they over the fear of being labelled racist?
Funny how Christy and Mike de Jong spent a decade denying the existence of a housing bubble or fraud in Vancouver, and now they’re suddenly preaching to the choir and asking for the Feds to intervene. What a joke. Send in the torches and pitchforks. Enough is enough.
Trump could possibly win because of Shysters like these fools. How is it possible that she or any of them are not in Jail??
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3785550/Wells-Fargo-executive-led-employees-responsible-opening-2-million-unauthorized-accounts-receive-125million-retirement-package-year-s-end.html
Come on, the Trump fear people have is on the same irrational level as “I don’t invest because sharemarkets are risky”.
People will soil their shorts for a week or two, it will be a buying opportunity, then when nothing happens they’ll find out the new boss is the same as the old boss.
I pulled the figures out of the DFA returns program earlier in the year and apart from Bush II (two bubbles popped on his watch) every president starting from Ronny Ray-gun pumped out a double digit return on the S&P500.
“As for President (Obama), more problematic. It’s also uncharted. There’s never been a person less politically qualified or experienced to be in charge of the globe’s biggest economy than this guy. He is inconsistent, opportunistic and divisive. His appeal is profound to a broad swath of people who feel disenfranchised and disillusioned, and mourn a dying middle class. The solutions are simple. (Hope and Change)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Obama was a community organizer who never even did so much private sector work as stuffing ice cream at a Dairy Queen. He was easily the most unqualified to run the world’s biggest economy.
Hillary? She’s turned lying, graft, corruption, influence peddling and criminal behavior into high art, worthy of exhibition at the Louvre, or Sing Sing. Even her supporters try to normalize her criminal acts by saying “Hey, that’s just how it’s done, so move along, no story here.” They don’t even bother saying she didn’t do it. People are so jaded that they expect it from her and hubby; nothing shocks them anymore.
Trump? Yeah, a threat to the elites because they don’t own him and can’t predict what he’ll do. No wonder they’re shakin’ in their boots. Reagan was the same. He was considered a “cowboy” and unpredictable by all the U.S.’s enemies. Trump, same thing, but his enemies are foreign elites and domestic elites.
I highly doubt that Trump will kill NAFTA with Canada. We’re playing ball and respecting the rules. First rule of business is you don’t screw good clients/partners when you’re cleaning out bad ones.
Both were state governors. Get serious. — Garth
—-
Yes, they both went to the school that created the type of politicians people are completely fed up with.
The strength and popularity of Trump is that he skipped this corrupt socialization. He is not seen as a pre-selected puppet. Is he?
My comment is not about today’s post which offers excellent advice.
Vancouver snippet. Garth has often mentioned that one symptom of a falling RE market is taking a house that isn’t selling off the market, lowering the price and then relisting it. Shazam! It’s now a “new” listing. This house was originally listed on May 30th at $3.65 million and was taken off the market at the end of August. It reappeared last week and the price was only lowered by about $100k (someone is greedy and delusional) and I’m sure it won’t sell. This city feels like a RE cemetery.
http://dexterrealty.com/officelistings.html/details-60168838
#8 Marcus on 09.12.16
“Hell, today in New York the DNC just met and floated the idea of Bill filling in for Hillary!”
You haven’t a clue what you’re talking about. (Do you ever?) The 22nd amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits Bill Clinton from ever holding that office again.. thank goodness.
Hard hitting journalism it ain’t ,but it seems like some of you might be interested in this tabloid story suggesting that a body double for Hillary was rolled out after she collapsed…
I am hoping to send my body double to work tomorrow too.
It is hard to find one when you have a face like a monkeys bum…
M42BC
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/545070/Hillary-Clinton-body-double-proof-photo-evidence-claim-Donald-Trump-election-2016
“Market timing doesn’t work. Period. It’s a myth”
Not true. It is just for smarter people than us. Warren Buffet considers cash an option. He is currently at $70+ Billion in cash.
#171 Geoffrey Musick on 09.12.16 at 2:15 pm
Sheane, I own my house, have a wife, 18 month old son, and a dog. The bills (tax, insurance on 2 cars, internet, hydro, water etc.) run me $10K. I spend another $30Kish on food / travel etc. So we live on $40K a year, and quite comfortably. It is far from impossible.
———————
Congrats. Enjoy it, while it lasts.
1. I am assuming you are not including car leases/amortisation in your expenses.
2. House repairs – average at least 5-6 k yearly, maybe more. Your house might be in good condition not but it won’t last forever.
3. Are you counting mortgage interest expenses? Or you think house appreciation will compensate for it?
4. In a year you will need full day daycare for the kid, then before/after school program, when you encounter the quality of our school system, I can assure you you will need tutors, then summer camps, so provision at least 10-12 k yearly (that was experience from over 10 years ago). 2 kids? Multiply that by 2.
5. Small items – clothes, orthopaedic shoes (120 $ + and worth every penny, make sure your kid wears orthopaedic shoes when growing or else!), maybe eye glasses, braces (6 k+),
you count it, I am not even including water filtering/reverse osmosis system to get rid of the fluoride in the water, after all we need steady supply of brainless idiots around (how otherwise would such house prices be possible)?
6. Average some parents expenses (ask GT here how much an old Alzheimer or Parkinson parent support is worth per months)
and you will come with a number at least 50 % higher than what you have now.
And better get some good life/health insurance as well (think about your kid).
Does it really matter which clown wins The White House? Bottom line is we are heading for a circus show, glad I’m Canadian.
Timing has worked well for many of this year, GT. Buying big in Feb, post-brexit and again on Friday. The market is now completely detached from fundamentals and the central banks do whatever it takes to keep it propped up. Such easy money. Just pray that Hillary can make it to Nov!
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump delivered a speech from Youngstown, Ohio this afternoon, during which he discussed his plan for defeating ISIS.
During his remarks, Trump declared that the United States is at war with radical Islam and that any country that opposes ISIS should be considered an ally.
Trump also blamed the rise of ISIS on President Obama and on Hillary Clinton, saying that their policies allowed the terrorist organization to flourish. Finally, Trump expanded upon his controversial Muslim ban, proposing a suspension of visas to countries that he described as “exporters” of terrorism. He also proposed an ideological test to ensure those entering the country adhere to certain principles.
Why in the H-E-DOUBLE HOCKEYSTICKS is Hillary still running? The Dems need to find a credible candidate and fast!
I HEAR Bernie’s available.
I’d like to hear Warren Buffet’s opinion on Well’s Fargo payout to one of his employee’s. http://fortune.com/2016/09/12/wells-fargo-cfpb-carrie-tolstedt/
Looks like the VanRE soufflé may be beginning to deflate (at least according to Steve Saretsky’s analysis of the numbers):
http://www.vancitycondoguide.com/september-sales-record-slowdown/
ANON’s buying and selling 101:
Buying is promising more of the lower layers, in order to obtain a piece of the upper layers of Exter’s pyramid . It is driven by trust in the narrative (spotless souls call it “greed” to distance themselves from it, only their narrative being pure). Of course, being exponentially based on promises, it is subject to diminishing returns, which is when everyone starts squealing and blaming other, darker souls, the Guilties, let’s call them.
Selling is the opposite. Literally, except it amplifies the squealing&blaming, probably exponentially, also. No studies have ever been done, since everyone was busy being poor.
It then all starts yet again, after a while, because there’s nothing new under the sun since about 5000 years ago when the abstraction of real things into tokens took place, and promises really took off, to spectacular developments and equally spectacular busts.
Except we, blogdogs, might not see the end of that period, being mortal, as everything is on a long enough timeline.
Or it could really be an extinction, but even that that does not happen overnight (no, even the cute dynos did not die in a flash, the sharkfin decline had started before the asteroid, as puzzled scientists are yet again sent back to their high school teachings). There is no plateau, if you zoom out far enough, you always see the up and the down slopes. Tough. Even scientists don’t believe it, it had to be the tectonic plaques and continental land masses.
So, yeah, helping yourself is a really good advice at the moment, because we’re about to hear the word “sell” a lot.
Don’t fear the Donald. He will be great for Canada. Approving the Keystone XL will help our economy. On the other hand Hillary will strangle the economies of the world by trying to implement the anti growth Paris climate accord.
Our world runs on oil, coal and gas as long as we keep burning lots of it things will be great!
#12 NoOneOfConsequence on 09.12.16 at 7:04 pm
Yeah, Trump is such a jolly good fella. I say this sarcastically. And, just in case your post wasn’t intended as pure sarcasm, please read this:
http://tinyurl.com/j29bw9p
http://tinyurl.com/h4q3bh5
http://tinyurl.com/hnz4g8t
” … and now her health’s on the table.” Garth
I had the thought of Hillary Clinton in a morgue when I read that line. I’ll be glad when this election is over, have been feeling very unsettled as of late.
Peekaboo. Be very afraid of hyperinflation for basic necessities.and as far as the election goes, i guess what many are afraid of is a real person in office and not a puppet on the end of corrupt strings. Corruption is fine as long as the market remains fat. Righto?
#14 The Nature Boy on 09.12.16 at 7:08 pm
Agree, Hillary’s comment was incorrect. It’s more likely in the range of 70-80%.
Research also shows when markets tank, people sitting on cash stay sitting instead of investing, emotionally unable to do what others are not.
————————————————————–
Really? In the past when I had some extra cash and the markets tanked (in other words went on sale) I went on a buying binge. As I’ve said many times before, I acted like the engine governor that responded to a big drop in speed by ramming the throttle WIDE OPEN to give the engine more fuel/air mixture to pull the speed back up. It all seems so simple to me.
I’m not sure what to think of this. Markets have been through a lot worse throughout history so I would think even if Trump wins the market will eventually continue muddling along. How long that would take is the question.
If I remember correctly, the Democrats have never won 3 terms in a row. Will that continue.
The quality of politicians worldwide seems like it is dropping like a rock. It’s no longer about what leader is worth following but about the lesser of multiple evils.
The Fed needs to stop jawboning/crying Wolf or it will eventually backfire. When WILL it ever be a good time to raise rates? there is always an event on the horizon.
Interesting times indeed.
#12 NoOneOfConsequence on 09.12.16 at 7:04 pm
1. He is a successful business man.
Let me stop you right there, pal.
Trump is not successful, he did not grow his father’s inheritance, and should have put it in an index ETF instead.
http://www.moneytalksnews.com/why-youre-probably-better-investing-than-donald-trump/
He’s also a miserably piece of s**t that the white house can do without.
“It’s only people born since 1990 who think the cost of money can never rise. Kids. Sheesh.” – Garth
———————————————–
Let’s see now. Garth, you’ve been wrong about rising rates for a very long time. Yet, you continue with your derision when people rightly claim that rates can’t rise. Not significantly.
#18 not 1st on 09.12.16 at 7:27 pm
So, everyone with an illness is ready for a home?
Or is it being a woman of age 69 that makes someone ready for a home?
Help me understand why your comment isn’t deplorable.
#8 Marcus on 09.12.16 at 6:49 pm
Hillary is in real trouble. both with her health and her campaign. Parkinsons with the complication of Vascular Dementia is no laughing matter. In fact it has a survival rate of about 5 years. She was diagnosed in 2013 with Vascular dementia and her team has been researching Parkinsons medications. Per Wikileaks most recent release. This is serious. Trump will be the next President like it or not. Hell, today in New York the DNC just met and floated the idea of Bill filling in for Hillary! I shit you not!
—
I thought you were shitting me but then you said “I shit you not”, so it must be true. It’s like if you ask someone if they are a cop they have to tell you, right?
You guys are all nuts
#14 The Nature Boy on 09.12.16 at 7:08 pm
Garth, seriously dude????????????????
You write that Trump is divisive?
LOL.
Have you heard Hillary’s comments about the “basket of deplorables” Friday??????
She aspires to be the President of ALL Americans, yes?
She IS divisive dude.
—
What she meant to say was Trump supporters are a basket of cases.
#45 bram on 09.12.16 at 8:33 pm
You basically confirmed that trump is a good businessman.
Almost 99% of business people can’t grow their business at the same rate as the general US economy. Most businesses die actually. So you’re actually saying he’s kept pace with the largest economy in the world for decades
Confirmed leftists present last night.
-Immediate name calling based on emotion not reason?
-Dislike of western world values, blames self for ALL the world’s problems?
-Dislikes any one person or anything that has any success?
-Hides behind western ideals of freedom and equality while secretly harboring resentment?
-Forgot that the freedom and success we enjoy today in the west was fought for in many bloody wars.
#140 Ron on 09.12.16 at 8:49 am
Add scientific discovery in health and technology to the list I mentioned. That kind of success.
#148 Eks dee Sipal on 09.12.16 at 10:41 am
It’s the opposite. I used to be more liberal leaning while in University like a lot of students. Then I witnessed Israeli Apartheid Week (supported by the NDP) and was disgusted. Saw one orthodox kid who has lived in Toronto his whole life and never been anywhere else get screamed at while trying to make it to class. Saw my religious symbol desecrated. Felt like I was in a different country. A hostile one. Yet these people didn’t care. They had an obvious agenda and they falsely premised it on the idea that they were championing the plight of the Palestinians. That’s the leftist movement. It’s obsessed with pinning one another (Jews Muslims, Blacks Whites, Men Women) against each other. It has no place in the modern day western world.
Thankfully, as evidenced by Trump’s success so far, this movement has begun to implode on itself and a strong political backlash is growing.
MF
#44 Cory on 09.12.16 at 8:28 pm
The quality of politicians worldwide seems like it is dropping like a rock. It’s no longer about what leader is worth following but about the lesser of multiple evils.
You certainly have that one right!
No real leaders, we are in s.e.r.i.o.u.s. trouble for the future of Planet Earth.
#30 Smoking Man on 09.11.16 at 5:26 pm
@SmokingMan but theñ I’m thinkin Context. It’s probably going to be past your bed time
——————–
2 losernames – 1 person
According to DNC party rules if the winning candidate for the nomination drops out after getting the nomination, the candidate with the second most delegates takes over. If they stay with the rules and don’t change them then if Hillary has to drop out (and there are 3 good reasons she might have to, legal, health and her gaff insulting Trump voters as un-American undesirables), then guess what?…..
Wait for it…..
Bernie’s back!
Although the campaign discourse between Bernie and Trump is likely to be the most civilized we’ve seen in US politics in a long time, and focused on policy instead of smearing, it doesn’t fix the problem that they are going to have to choose between a couple of geriatrics down there.
(Bernie doesn’t tend to resort directly to ad-hominine attacks the way Clinton does, and Trump tends to counter attack. Also Trump’s tweet that he respects all Americans even the Clinton supporters who would never vote for him, was pure brilliance. He followed up with a quote that the American president needs to stand for all Americans, made by… Barack Obama after Mitt Romney’s famous 47% gaff. Again brilliant.)
Congrats. Enjoy it, while it lasts.
1. I am assuming you are not including car leases/amortisation in your expenses.
2. House repairs – average at least 5-6 k yearly, maybe more. Your house might be in good condition not but it won’t last forever.
3. Are you counting mortgage interest expenses? Or you think house appreciation will compensate for it?
4. In a year you will need full day daycare for the kid, then before/after school program, when you encounter the quality of our school system, I can assure you you will need tutors, then summer camps, so provision at least 10-12 k yearly (that was experience from over 10 years ago). 2 kids? Multiply that by 2.
5. Small items – clothes, orthopaedic shoes (120 $ + and worth every penny, make sure your kid wears orthopaedic shoes when growing or else!), maybe eye glasses, braces (6 k+),
you count it, I am not even including water filtering/reverse osmosis system to get rid of the fluoride in the water, after all we need steady supply of brainless idiots around (how otherwise would such house prices be possible)?
6. Average some parents expenses (ask GT here how much an old Alzheimer or Parkinson parent support is worth per months)
and you will come with a number at least 50 % higher than what you have now.
And better get some good life/health insurance as well (think about your kid).
___________________________________________
1. Own both cars, I drive beater to work.
2. Maybe 5-6K if you include labor. Why not just buy the materials and do it yourself for a fraction of that?
3. No mortgage, outright own.
4. Wife works mornings as educational assistant, grandma watches kid. As for tutors, I think I can handle helping my child with his grade 3 math and spend quality time with him myself.
5. Orthopaedic shoes…because?
6. My parents are about 15-20 years away from that stage. And I also have 2 brothers to help there.
What I don’t do is piss away money on the newest Samsung every other year.
What I did do was plan ahead and start saving as soon as I started working. Pay yourself first.
Depending on what happens from here till the end of December all the gains can be quickly lost, we are living in uncharted territory and the pattern of the past has been broken. Interest rates will not rise for at least another few years, The economy will slow and fewer jobs will be created as technology change messes up the workforce, its a vicious circle.
Once Trump is elected and the prisons are filled up with the people that really should be there, things will slowly go back to normal.
Trump Claims Yellen Is Holding Rates Low to Aid Obama
http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-asserts-low-interest-rates-a-gift-to-obama-from-fed-1473688480?mod=e2fb
#31 The real Kip on 09.12.16 at 7:53 pm
Does it really matter which clown wins The White House? Bottom line is we are heading for a circus show, glad I’m Canadian.
Aren’t you forgetting that we now have our own clown in Canada?
#56 GM on 09.12.16 at 9:00 pm
Exactly, you are exception at the moment,. Enjoy it while it lasts.
5. Orthopaedic shoes…because?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flat_feet
It is epidemic here.
You are also assuming that both your wife and you will be healthy as well as your parents in the near future.
1 million Ontarians have diabetes, I guess none of you immediate familt?
Aren’t you one lucky guy?
I think Trump will be elected because Hillary is too political. Everything to her is control and power, like her deplorables comment. Trump actually wants to govern while Hillary wants 8 more years of the status-quo. Trump talks to the media and they must respect him, Hillary just runs away from them.
Trump and Pence, forget the rest.
20% cash right now from 10% in june and going for 25% before october, the month of krachs…
Relax Garth, president Trump will surround himself with the right people.
Individual presidents don’t determine policy. They surround themselves with the people who execute the policies outlined.
A stronger America is better for everyone.
#12 NoOneOfConsequence
I’ll take number 5: “He is not afraid to admit he is wrong, and take steps to remedy those wrongs.”
This what Trump said to Jimmy Fallon last September:
“I fully think apologizing is a great thing, but you have to be wrong … I will absolutely apologize sometime in the distant future if I’m ever wrong.”
It’s a Trump classic quote, right up there with his old fear mongering “There’s something going on”.
Feds waiting on raising s.t. interest rates until late in the year:
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/775468810648313857
#51 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 09.12.16 at 8:54 pm
“If ethics or morality has nothing to do with business,” [Marty] Rosenberg said, “he’s a very good businessman.”
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/06/29/donald-trumps-taj-mahal-failure-crushed-many-of-his-contractors.html
Last year in Washington for a meeting, I’m lost like a mofo, I say yuck it and pull into parking garage, park at the top, great view I can see the White House. My cel phone rings and it’s the old battle axe chirping at me, ya ya ya will call u later honey. Get out of my q5 and I locked my keys in uckin thing. Call tow truck company they say 6 hours, fml. I’m basically lost and stuck in a parkade with a view of the White House. Getting dark next thing 6 vehicles come flying in and out jump all these guys in suites, secret service is here, u ok sir? Not really I’m lost and locked out of my ride. We could see you were up here by urself and were not sure ur intention. Wtf u talking about young man, I’m
A Canadian lost in Washington and need help. Please unlock my door for me. They were all big mofos I counted 20 of them, retired navy seal had it open like nothing, sorry sir we gotta search ur vehicle, np young buck. They found nothing at all. I’m getting ready to drive away and Oliver North walks over and shakes my hand and we took a selfie, what a nite in Washington to remember- i always thought northie was in hiding- true story
“Trying to time the markets isn’t investing. It’s gambling. You have no more idea of what’s going to take place than anyone else. So don’t even try. Going to cash is also a nebulous idea, since you might end up buying into a rising tide. Research also shows when markets tank, people sitting on cash stay sitting instead of investing, emotionally unable to do what others are not. Of all motivators, fear is the greatest.” GT
**********************************************
Although I’d be in agreement with regards to people who have no clue about what ‘investing’ is, there’s the other school of thought that says, “timing is everything” (aka ‘buy low, sell high’).
So I would say that both are ‘correct’, depending on knowledge/experience.
On the other hand, Garth, I make the suggestion that you’re sort of contradicting yourself, since you’ve been busy telling everyone to, correctly ‘get out’ (of RE in YVR etc). In other words, when an asset is overvalued by a couple standard deviations from the mean, it’s wise to sell.
The difficulty, is trying to figure out ‘fair-value’ etc….and that, takes WORK. Not many are willing to do it…
…and to have a contrarian mind-set, which is sort of deviant in itself (from an evolutionary point of view).
MF
I used to be more liberal leaning while in University like a lot of students. Then I witnessed Israeli Apartheid Week (supported by the NDP) and was disgusted. Saw one orthodox kid who has lived in Toronto his whole life and never been anywhere else get screamed at while trying to make it to class. Saw my religious symbol desecrated. Felt like I was in a different country. A hostile one. Yet these people didn’t care. They had an obvious agenda and they falsely premised it on the idea that they were championing the plight of the Palestinians. That’s the leftist movement. It’s obsessed with pinning one another (Jews Muslims, Blacks Whites, Men Women) against each other. It has no place in the modern day western world.
—-
In Eastern-Europe Jews support exclusively leftist political parties.
In many of these countries right wing governments are in power, protesting the German pressure to settle Muslims in large numbers. Some of these countries were under Turkish occupation for one and a half centuries during the Ottoman Empire. They refused to convert during the occupation. During the Austro-Hungarian Empire they settled Jews in large number. Hundreds of thousands of the descendants of those Jews died in Hitler’s concentration camps. After WW2 the Soviet Union planted Communist satellite governments in those countries, often with Jewish Communist party leaders. In the meantime the Russian Communist Empire supported the Arabs and Palestine against Israel in a proxy war with the US. Today the headline in a leading opposition pro-Israeli, left wing newspaper reads “Islamphobia is the new Anti-Semitism.”
The world is really fugged up, indeed.
Garth – as the former head of Revenue in Canada, what is your viewpoint on the shananigans in Vancouver?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-finance-minister-calls-on-cra-to-diligently-crack-down-on-real-estate-tax-dodges/article31818786/
Its only a matter of time too, before Toronto is ‘outed’ also.
Re: #2 FREEMAN on 09.12.16 at 6:28 pm
The sell signal comes September 28th this year. I put in a short position on Teck Corporation today at 22 bucks and will add to that short position.
Pain maybe in store for S&P 500 from my favorite fortune tellers
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-may-be-in-store-for-the-sp-500-in-2016-says-goldman-2016-09-12
The carnage continues in YVR housing in the first 2 weeks of September. Sales at 10 year historical lows month to date in attached and detached.
http://www.vancitycondoguide.com/september-sales-record-slowdown/
#62 Gordon Lestin on 09.12.16 at 9:17 pm
Re: “Trump talks to the media and they must respect him”
Same media personnel who helped create Donald Trump describe him as a serial liar and are sorry for what they created:
http://tinyurl.com/j5483zz
“Trump sought the press and reveled in his coverage.
“We did give him a lot of attention and that’s what he wants and that’s what he has parlayed into his presidential bid,” says Mulcahy.
But she quickly noticed in her dealings with the mogul how seldom he told the truth. In her op-ed Mulcahy said Trump lied about 90% of the time.
“If I could say that again, I would say 99.9%,” she laughs. “I was being generous.””
10 Cash is King: Dick Cheney is around cause he has a NEW heart…I was hoping that would chill him out, but when he is let loose on TV, he is more rabid than ever…SCARY GUY!
#64 Etobicoke Trump Campaign Office on 09.12.16 at 9:35 pm
“Relax Garth, president Trump will surround himself with the right people.”
That’s right. Trump will surround himself with graduates of Trump University to make America great again!
#67 Maj on 09.12.16 at 9:46 pm
#51 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 09.12.16 at 8:54 pm
“If ethics or morality has nothing to do with business,” [Marty] Rosenberg said, “he’s a very good businessman.”
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/06/29/donald-trumps-taj-mahal-failure-crushed-many-of-his-contractors.html
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Obozo/Hillary administration is how many TRILLION more dollars in debt since they took office? Try again…..oh and how about those quotes:
” I will close gitmo”
“I will get ALL our troops out of the middle east”
“Yes we can”
ANYONE but career politicians……..ANYONE.
#69 TCContrarian: – Is it fair value in Toronto to hold or get out now? Please help me time the market ok.
1. He is a successful business man.
Easier when you inherit millions. He would have made more money investing his fathers fortune in a balanced portfolio.
2. He is an excellent negotiator – familiar with performing intense negotiations on a global scale – with many different countries.
Name one big deal where he got away with murder? I can point to many where he failed. Trump Taj Mahal lost millions.
3. He listens to his staff. (look at how he has moderated his message – he is even using the teleprompter now!)
Put this man in the White House, he listens to people
4. He understands the need to have smart and experienced people working for him and advising him.
That’s why he’s given his kids top positions in his company and has a no name running mate?
5. He is not afraid to admit he is wrong, and take steps to remedy those wrongs.
Name a time. He’s repeatedly lied that he didn’t support the war in Iraq despite there being proof of that he did.
6. He has a vested interest in the well being of all american citizens, since his businesses employ and sell to many of them.
As opposed to Hillary who would benefit from everyone dying a fiery death? This is stupid.
7. He has a sincere desire to ‘make america great’ again.
He has a sincere desire to promote the Trump brand too.
8. He doesn’t change for the sake of change – if something is working, he will incorporate it into his strategies.
Who doesn’t? Hillary was behind gay marriage until she wasn’t. Look at Trump, he’s willing to change his view on abortion back and forth.
Your list sucks. If these are your best points I’m glad you can’t vote in the US.
Trump chooses the king of pseudo-science and BS cures, Dr. Oz, to release his physical report…coming this Thursday.
#61 Sheane Wallace “Aren’t you one lucky guy?”
Make that two (Whoa!) lucky guys. I’m was in the same situation, but my three kids are university age now. (Actually one went to trade school. The
” shame” of manual labour, but ah, it’s nice to see a young person respect so much money.)
The youngest one made more money this year as a TA and with co-op employment than I did. More than paid for his tuition. When our fridge died in August, he offered to chip in. Smartass. But he meant it.
These kids suffered incredibly.
No orthopedic shoes.
No filtered water.
No tutors or tennis coaches.
They never had a new bike, rarely new clothes.
We never paid for their cell phones.
They actually got summer jobs.
They never went on a cruise with their parents.
(Their parents never went either.)
They played outside, sometimes even when it was cloudy.
My wife made so little money, it made sense to stay home with the kids.
We (Still) don’t have Cable/Satellite TV.
One of the kids grandmas suffered with Alzheimers
and had to stay in a poorhouse until she died. (Government run residence.) I have to say she got pretty good care, but she probably “got lucky”.
We shopped (Hush now!) like other unfortunates at thrift shops and garage sales regularly.
I did (And still do) all my own car work and home reno’s.
New car? Um, no. Never wanted to lose money THAT fast. But I love people who do buy new cars. Especially the ones who “need” to buy a car every two or three years. You’re the best!
At a retired 58, my luck remains hauntingly good. No diabetes. It’s like I won the lottery.
Ah, for just one time I would take the Northwest Passage
To find the hand of Franklin reaching for the Beaufort Sea;
Tracing one warm line through a land so wide and savage
And make a Northwest Passage to the sea.
Both were state governors. Get serious. — Garth
_______________________________________________
So Barry the community organizer was qualified? Please… You get serious.
This is hardly an upset. Anyone with a strong understanding of Herdonomics saw Trump win it from the day he renounced Political Correctness early in the GOP race.
All the other crazy talk was to keep him in the headlines.
I really should open up a school covering my 5 areas of expertise.
VBA
The fine art of bull shiting.
FOREX
Creative writing while intoxicated.
Herdonomics.
#76 Grey Dog
Dick Cheney is around cause he has a NEW heart…
Yeah I guess his old one rotted out.
MF
Confirmed leftists present last night.
Your very next sentence
-Immediate name calling
Anyways
-Forgot that the freedom and success we enjoy today in the west was fought for in many bloody wars.
Never forget that. However, that freedom that was fought for and shed blood for is all disappearing before our eyes with the stokes of pens and shuffling of numbers in a digital world. You, and many, many, many other hypnotized people need to understand this. The truth does hurt a little. Trust me, I know just how saddening it is to see our rights, freedoms and true civil liberties slip away each and everyday.
Until we in the West can reach a critical mass of critical thinking and abandon our political fight of the last 50 years… I feel things are only going to get worse while the system you so believe in, and trust is only going to fill you hopes with more grandiose plans covered in bullshit, all the while an ignored reality ripens to rotten fruit.
Trump is not going to save the day. He is a mere symptom of a much larger problem
Zoom out, then look closer
about time….nothing like a good public shaming to prompt our glorious leaders into doing their jobs
HOUSING Globe and Mail:
”CRA launches review of B.C. real estate speculators”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/cra-launches-review-of-bc-real-estate-speculators/article31847258/
Accept the fact that the Americans could never accept a woman as President.
Trump all the way.
For the life of God, I have no idea why people play slots. Five minutes for me and I’m board.
Zombies pushing buttons for hours and hours.
The carp table is where it’s at.. A tip when your the roller. Snake eyes up, the dice together with fives on the outside. Very rarely roll a 7..
Or mabey because I truly beilive it, electro magnetic brain waves makes you dreams come true. I had 2 45 minute rolls.
And everyone on my table is buying my book. 4 of them really think I’m from Nictonite. Maybe I am..
Maybe we all are. But If you don’t beilive in something, no good brain waves for you.
#60 john in Mtl on 09.12.16 at 9:08 pm
#31 The real Kip on 09.12.16 at 7:53 pm
Does it really matter which clown wins The White House? Bottom line is we are heading for a circus show, glad I’m Canadian.
Aren’t you forgetting that we now have our own clown in Canada?
===================================
Exactly.
I was thinking precisely the same – there is no way Canadians should feel smug at all looking at the US, politically speaking. At least the future is still unwritten down there, while in Canada it’s certain that there will be economic carnage and massive increase in debt.
Clinton/Trump are both terrible choices, and I’d take either one any day over Trudeau. At least with the Americans you know there’s SOMETHING there, not just fluff.
I’m a machine,
I’ve had like two hours sleep since Saturday, I’ve already gone throught a carton of cigarettes, lost 5 lighters and drank more JD and wine that would kill a large normal manual like an elephant..
God is afraid of me, I’m totaly convinced. The cowered has had so many chance to take me out on lake Ontario. Lighting bolts close to the boat, but none hitting my extended middle finger used as a lighting rod.
How does one piss this bugger of so you can finally have words with the prick.
I’m thinking he’s not real… Go ahead God prove me wrong….
Wait.. Nope, I take that back. Last time I said something like this you took my nephew..
Lets be buddies.
Just got on an elevator with a tone of Chinese people, going back to my room to drink real JD. Shit at the bar is watered down. I’m convinced.
So I said to the group. Probably sluring a bit, we’re yo all from.. No answer. I tried again. Some 3 foot lady responds, they all start laughing…
Bastards have no idea I speak sort of mandarin and Cantonese. My import export company in the 90s.
I dident respond, played the dumb American.
This is what they said…
他是一個愚蠢的rasist美國喝醉了
A couple of days ago, no toss ups EC count at RealClearPolitics was:
Hillary: 340
Civilization had a good run, Trump: 198
Today:
Hillary: 311
Civilization had a good run, Trump: 227
A ways to go for Trump, still that big a change in a day?
…56 more days to go.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
Yes. U.S. will have a new President this year. Interest rates may go up down or stay the same. Bonds, Stocks, RE and all other paper and hard assets will still be there.
Simple exercise for the Newbies you may find interesting. this is not a be all and end all exercise. However it may open your mind and your thinking a little:
first: look at the performance of the indexes of a variety of countries (Dow Jones, S&P 500, TSE, FTSE, rest of Europe, HS, rest of Asia, etc. over the last few decades (at least 3).
second: look at the performance of the RE and other hard asset markets in a wide variety of individual countries/markets, and global markets, over the last few decades.
third: look at the currencies, interest rates, and bond markets, etc. over the last few decades.
fourth: with the advent of ETF’s, if you are investing via sectors in Canada, other countries, look at the individual companies inside the ETF and their performance over the last few decades.
Disclosure: for myself I invest in sector ETF’s only in Canada, and indexes for the rest of the world.
This is just an example of one simple exercise. Of course, I use this strategy in many things in many things. It’s how I figured out the only winning strategy for me in relationships with the opposite sex is for me to never give my house key to a woman. Too high risk, court backed. Fact.
ps of course I love women. As always, My Freedom First. The only sure winning strategy. Fact. Trust me.
ps ps would you vote for me? in the next election?
Posted this a while ago, so for the infrequent Blog visitors no need for a Condo Guide and some charts.
This guy posts actual GVRD MLS listings (carnage not unique to Vancouver alone)…observe the price listing drop carnage just in the past week (scroll down to his posts on Twitter before Sept. 11 – there are a few hundred, statistically significant, not isolated cases in your ‘hood…guy is sarcastic, a warning for the PC readers among you):
https://twitter.com/timberjrackie
After perusing the above, are there any YVR RE crash deniers left?
No need for Garth’s prior post on % drops in list prices or berating him for that, here you get absolute $…berate the MLS instead.
If—
BY RUDYARD KIPLING
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
#29 Rock Beats Paper on 09.12.16 at 7:53 pm
“Market timing doesn’t work. Period. It’s a myth”
Not true. It is just for smarter people than us. Warren Buffet considers cash an option. He is currently at $70+ Billion in cash.
================
At $72B half what it was vs gross assets compared to a decade ago.
“Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences:
BY ÒSCAR JORDÀ, MORITZ SCHULARICK, AND ALAN M. TAYLOR
The collapse of an asset price bubble usually creates a great deal of economic disruption. But bubbles are hard to anticipate and costly to deflate. As a result, policymakers struggle to determine how they should respond, if at all. Evaluating the economic costs of past equity and real estate bubbles—with particular attention to how much credit grew during boom phases— can provide valuable insights for this debate. A recent study finds that equity bubbles are relatively benign. More danger comes from housing bubbles in which credit grows rapidly.”
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2016-27.pdf
Somebody call the cops!
Several blog dogs have murdered the English language.
So much for our education system.
#76 Grey Dog on 09.12.16 at 10:22 pm
Will Ferrell played Bush in a play called “Your welcome America”. No wonder they called Cheney a Dick (see Goat Devil). I am amazed this play was allowed to run.
This link shouldn’t get me deleted. Comment on Cheney starts about 1:10.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikMKJwbMQ_M
My favorite play clip is the Bush boys trapped in a mine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiqMWfvFFkc
I also found “Copperhead Road” – an old time favourite. It speaks to the rebel in me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvaEJzoaYZk
I am killing a bit of time while I wait for the markets to open. No fun makes Jack a dull boy.
education for the “unsophisticated”
Client at Wells David E. Douglas was forced to sue as the bank did nothing when he reported the FRAUD
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/wells-fargo-news
=========
Respondent is a national bank headquartered in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Respondent is an insured depository institution with assets greater than $10
billion within the meaning of 12 U.S.C. § 5515(a)
http://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/092016_cfpb_WFBconsentorder.pdf
Looks like Smoking Man has no friends in life. Why would he come here all drunk to talk about drunken rants about stupid topics on a financial/RE blog.
Smoking drunk, go here: https://thesoberistblog.com/
I see that Peter the Great has thrown in the towel on politics and its about time. How can one ever forgive this man for not getting married in Canada to his bride to be. The MSM in this country is so pathetic as my muse told me where the wedding would be held ahead of time. There was a secret to be hidden involving provincial domain and my muse whispered in my ear the keys ‘sealed’ and search ‘Vancouver’. The rest was easy but Peter need not worry as it was nothing more than a dream or was it real?
“But reforms tend to happen quickly in the light of publicity, followed by backsliding when the spotlight fades,” Keest said…
=======
Was Hilary speaking to this basket of deplorables
..”And what people don’t understand about the criminal justice system is there are roughly a million people employed in it — and of course, millions incarcerated in it. But of the million employees, 2,300 do elite white-collar investigations. And of those 2,300, you have to contrast that to the number of industries in the United States, which is over 1,300. Notice I didn’t say ‘corporations,’ I said ‘industries.’
So a couple of things should be obvious. First, the FBI agents will not have expertise in the industry. And second, they can’t patrol the beat. They have to wait until a criminal referral comes in, and won’t come from the bank itself. Banks don’t make criminal referrals against their CEOs.
It could episodically come from whistleblowers, but against an epidemic of fraud that can never work. It has to come overwhelmingly from the regulators. So when the regulators ceased making criminal referrals — which had nothing to do with an end of crime, obviously; it just had to do with a refusal to be involved in the prosecutorial effort anymore — they doomed us to a disaster where we would not succeed.
http://billmoyers.com/2013/09/17/hundreds-of-wall-street-execs-went-to-prison-during-the-last-fraud-fueled-bank-crisis/
It won’t take much to drive Canadian borrowers over the edge, new study says
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/it-wont-take-much-to-drive-canadian-borrowers-over-the-edge-new-study-says
There are more than 700,000 Canadians who might be watching the next Bank of Canada decision very closely, because even a modest interest rate increase could push them over the financial edge.
A new study out Tuesday from credit agency TransUnion shows that of the 26 million credit-active Canadians in the country, 718,000 can’t absorb a 25-basis point increase or they won’t have enough cash flow to cover their debts. Raise rates one percentage point, something not likely to happen overnight, and 971,000 Canadians end up in a cash crunch.
Besides Kipling, rebuttal wars and picking on Smoking Man, we just got told market impounded Hillary win, may not be, lots of volatility out there with probably more to come; hence garth says,:
stay diversified, stay the course and expect the unexpected.
Disagree on timing Garth. I do not have your means; thus, staying liquid with extra cash lying around until end of year…then invest little I have left. As for the rest and what I have invested, I am staying the course as you recommend.
And I expect rates to increase by year end much faster than you say.
Recall, Hillary or the Donald want a spending spree…market will impound that as well at year end.
And if oil glut ends end of year, I expect it too, then oil ETFs are going to look very good to park cash into.
a 6ft. painting of himself for $20,000 and supposedly put it on display at one of his golf courses?
David A. Fahrenthold September 10 at the washington post looks into Trump ‘s Foundation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-donald-trump-retooled-his-charity-to-spend-other-peoples-money/2016/09/10/da8cce64-75df-11e6-8149-b8d05321db62_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop_b
I’m curious. Cowtown single family detached average sales price up 15% to date, Sept. ’16/Sept. ’15. Let’s see if this is sustained over the next 18 days this month.
You each get one guess as to how the real estate touts will spin this. At least they will have two facts to underpin the spin, namely the thrice weekly Beijing/Cowtown direct flights inaugurated June 30 and the imposition of the 15% tax on dudes from away in the la la jurisdiction next door.
We will still have to await the true barometer of the effects of foreign money however. That being “eye witness accounts” of darkened houses, unkempt lawns, flyers and newspapers piled high on porches and Lambos in Mount Royal and Eagle Ridge.
station wagons are making comeback.
Porsche plans to introduce its first station wagon, further stretching the brand’s portfolio beyond the iconic 911 sports car into a more utilitarian segment, according to people familiar with the strategy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-13/porsche-said-to-show-first-station-wagon-in-2017-to-expand-range
I continue to be amazed by the high level of confidence people have in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. It’s pretty clear that these people are as clueless as anybody else.
I was watching a documentary on the Japanese financial crisis which has been a slow-motion train wreck for about 25 years now. Used to be working for the Bank of Japan was like the most prestigious thing you could do in economics/business in Japan; having a business card with the Bank of Japan on it was the highest status symbol. Now, not so much. We’re definitely going to go down that path with the Federal Reserve.
I’ve met with financial guys/gals at two major Canadian banks: Scotia and BMO. When trying to sell their products they both had the same schtick: they pull out a chart of the S&P 500, and show that the overall trend is upwards, even though there’s dips along the way. At BMO they had a chart and every year quoted a reason why naysayers have said not to invest. These people should look at a chart of the Nikkei 225.
I hate to break it to ya’ll but there ain’t no such thing as “safe”, not in the past twenty years, modern portfolio theory is an idea the mutual fund dinosaurs took to their graves.
Today’s market is risk on all the time, government interference assures that, the bond is dead. Stock picking the best companies is the only “safety measure” that exists going forward.
This new reality goes beyond an age of thinking that diversity meant avoiding intelligent investing and passively indexing because the market would adjust itself.
Think about it, MPT is based on a free market, we have nothing of the kind anymore with the absolute manipulation by governments having changed the basic foundations of the capitalist system wher strength evolves from weakness.
Well this below average blogdog according to the recent stats thinks that the Americans should force their Presidential candidates to box someone before being elected.
I mean the Millennials didn’t vote for Justin the wedding crasher until he had punched out a drunk coked-up girlfriend – beating Senator.
At least we knew the little Selfie Trust Fund Kid was healthy.
I don’t think Hillary could box her shadow and win.
In case my last comment gets moderated, here’s a second post…
Hey Garth great article as always!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/cra-launches-review-of-bc-real-estate-speculators/article31847258/
#91 Smoking Man on 09.13.16 at 1:37 am
I’m a machine,
I’ve had like two hours sleep since Saturday, I’ve already gone throught a carton of cigarettes, lost 5 lighters and drank more JD and wine that would kill a large normal manual like an elephant..
God is afraid of me, I’m totaly convinced. The cowered has had so many chance to take me out on lake Ontario. Lighting bolts close to the boat, but none hitting my extended middle finger used as a lighting rod.
How does one piss this bugger of so you can finally have words with the prick.
I’m thinking he’s not real… Go ahead God prove me wrong….
Wait.. Nope, I take that back. Last time I said something like this you took my nephew..
Lets be buddies
_________________________________________
OK Smoking Man I will let this one go. You are on my list and I haven’t decided whether the last elevator ride for you is going up or down as yet! Now be nice to your brothers and sister while I let you toil on this earth!
#89 Smoking Man on 09.13.16 at 1:21 am
For the life of God, I have no idea why people play slots. Five minutes for me and I’m board.
Zombies pushing buttons for hours and hours.
The carp table is where it’s at.. A tip when your the roller. Snake eyes up, the dice together with fives on the outside. Very rarely roll a 7..
Or mabey because I truly beilive it, electro magnetic brain waves makes you dreams come true. I had 2 45 minute rolls.
And everyone on my table is buying my book. 4 of them really think I’m from Nictonite. Maybe I am..
Maybe we all are. But If you don’t beilive in something, no good brain waves for you.
___________________________________________
Go play cards somewhere else and stop playing with my fish Smoking Man! You think your an alien, your not your just misguided. I made you and I am beginning to regret that day. Oh well car company’s have recalls for faults and so do I.
#78 Brazil ex-pat on 09.12.16 at 10:30 pm
I am sorry for your gullibility.
#84 canuck on 09.12.16 at 11:40 pm
Both were state governors. Get serious. — Garth
_______________________________________________
So Barry the community organizer was qualified? Please… You get serious.
—
He was a senator, you dolt.
Which is more important time or money? Nytimes blog interesting… http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/opinion/sunday/what-should-you-choose-time-or-money.html?utm_content=socialchampEySqNBik3-&utm_medium=social&utm_source=plus.google.com&utm_campaign=socialchamp.io&_r=0 I believe it depends on your personal situation on a timeline.
#82 Berniebee on 09.12.16 at 11:16 pm
These kids suffered incredibly…
They played outside, sometimes even when it was cloudy.
*Gasp!*
But surely you had to pay for tanning sessions for them on those days, to make sure their bodies produced adequate levels of vitamin D!
Don’t you get it? Hillary has been exposed as an actor (same actor as Shirley Jones of the Partridge Family), and also went by the name of Rose Bush of the Bush dynasty who mysteriously died as a child. But of course, she didn’t. Bill is not actually her husband in real life.
So they are attempting to kill off/write off the Hillary character. The Powers that Be are scrambling, we have them on the run, actually. It’s only a matter of time when a significantly larger number of people clue in onto the FACT that actors are employed in politics, religion, science/education, and the military/industry, and for the first time in recorded history, we are able to actually identify them through biometric forensics.
Maybe they’re hoping that the Trump/Ron Masak guy has enough of the popular consensus to sway the Electoral College, but I’m sure that they have actors employed within that body as well, so we’ll likely have a Trump presidency for one term until they can get a new batch of actors ready.
Or maybe they didn’t plan for Trump to be President at all, and will need one of their acting family members to fill in for Hillary. Remember that there are over 1600 candidates for the Presidency, but only these two clowns are ever presented to you in the media. Why do you suppose that is?
When consuming News content, look out for the well-placed advertisements for the corporate sponsors. They are the ones who pay for the fake news that is given to you FREELY.
Guy says something no in line with lefty snowflakes’ views.
Snowflake shouts at him – “You’re Deplorable”
Guy calls the Secret Service to get the silly snowflake off his new front lawn.
Hillary’s peeps are going to have a sub-optimal 2017.
#52 MF Okay, I understand where you’re coming from, but the next step for you is to learn about the grand old world of CONTROLLED OPPOSITION. You cannot base your beliefs and worldview on a couple of events you witnessed. That’s childish. Don’t they still teach you to do your own research in university? Or has it now fully become a place to become a good corporate citizen? (That was rhetorical)
The truth is not left or right, padawan.
Market timing doesn’t work. Period.
Ducks quack. Dogs bark. Trading desks trade. Discount brokers buy and hold.
Me, I shifted 20 % 2 weeks ago. Looking now with magnifying glass at rest.
If your portfolio is properly weighted, why? — Garth
#119 Renter’s Revenge:- Tanning sessions produce no Vitamin D, as best source is cod liver oil in a proper ratio which is a fat soluble that the body can boost on demand. The lack of direct sunshine is the cause of getting colds in the winter so get that cod liver oil to supplement.
#82 berniebee. If all you want out of life is nothing, you’ve succeeded marvelously. I want a little more, and I want my kids to want a little more. I feel for your kids – what a stifling life. You should have seen the joy on my 6yr old face when we got him his new bike. Or how much our 4yr old loves his gymnastics coach. Or both of them staring in wonder at the Shanghai riverfront, counting the boats that go by.
Sure, we’re thrifty too – lots of hand me down clothes (and that bike is almost ready for the 4yr old), we sew patches on their jeans keens. When my mother in law comes to visit she brings sheets of penny a yard material and makes pajamas, curtains, skirts out of it. But being smart about your purchases isn’t the same as denying your kids everything!
#86 SWL on 09.12.16 at 11:47 pm
Good post SWL.
“Until we in the West can reach a critical mass of critical thinking and abandon our political fight of the last 50 years… I feel things are only going to get worse while the system you so believe in, and trust is only going to fill you hopes with more grandiose plans covered in bullshit, all the while an ignored reality ripens to rotten fruit.”
I believe things in the west can still be salvaged and the time to act is now. We are at a crossroads. The globalist agenda is on full display in Europe and the results are complete failure. Trump is not the savior, but he is a change in the right direction. It’s a start.
MF
So, in the news today, Martha Stewart (Janet Yellen) is releasing hundreds if not thousands of new products into Canada through the leading retailers. But she no longer holds the licensing of her own name. Do you understand now why she would give this up by selling out to Meredith Corp and Sequential Brands? It’s an actor behind both characters, they are the same person. Multiple revenue streams while still holding the title of the most powerful woman in the world.
Interest rates are definitely going up.
Yo Garthatron……. I basically follow what you do. Major differences is one, like a pension fund I will review and shift the groupings. Two, If I see a major trend developing, I pull the trigger.
I don’t like………..
Hillary being ill
Trump benefiting from this
Bombers in the sky above Korea
Rocky banking, especially in Europe
Pussy footing with ISIS, they have something.
I think i am going 80- 20. Bonds to equities. Will review if I like what develops in USA…….so far I do not like at all.
With bonds I prefer managed funds.
Bad move, obviously. More danger in debt than equity. — Garth
I love reading and seeing the fake news on MSM and in politics. This gives me the opportunity in the political field to watch the traitors and liars. On the TV they just read scripts and in the newspapers I can ascertain who is selling out.
Almost a million Canadians couldn’t handle a 1-point interest rate rise, TransUnion says
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/transunion-debt-interest-rates-1.3759844
Almost a million Canadians wouldn’t be able to handle even a one percentage point increase in the interest rate they pay on their debts, new research says.
According to a report from credit-monitoring firm TransUnion, 26 million Canadians have some form of debt, including mortgages, lines of credit, and credit-card debt.
Company research released Tuesday says that roughly 718,000 of them wouldn’t be able to keep their financial heads above water if their interest rate went up by as little as 0.25 percentage points.
And another 253,000 on top of that would go under if the rate they must pay on their debt increased by just one percentage point.
Vancouver housing market set to enter a correction with prices falling at least 10%: National Bank
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/vancouver-housing-market-set-to-enter-a-correction-with-prices-falling-10-national-bank
Vancouver’s housing market may enter a correction with price declines of at least 10 per cent, according to Stefane Marion, Montreal-based chief economist and strategist at National Bank of Canada.
“There is downside to single family homes in Vancouver,” after policy changes in the last year such as higher down-payment requirements and a provincial tax on foreign buyers, Marion said Tuesday at the Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference in New York. Price declines will be moderated by the province’s strong job growth, he said. “I don’t think it sends the economy into a tailspin. It’s a healthy correction,” Marion said.
Anyone notice that the 10-year Gov of Canada bond yield is up 22 bps since last Wednesday? (up 7 bps today).
http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-10-year-bond-yield
Mad man have always won in politics. Trump is a Mad Man. We are all F’d. The first thing he will do is call Ms. Yellen and ask her to raise those F’in rates as we are tired of waiting. The stock market will in the mean time work in the anticipation of his win and once he gets it, its up up from there. Throw in the interest rate raise and the US economy will be in high gear. I do not like Trump! but with a weak rival like Hillary we are in trouble. This was a set up from the begging! Hillary did not win against a fair player such as Obama, what makes her believe she will win against a mad man aka dictator that wants build a wall around his country!
#128 conan: A danger warning has been issued on US corporate bonds because they are over leveraged.
Bad move, obviously. More danger in debt than equity. — Garth
#135 Context on 09.13.16 at 12:58 pm danger on the corp
That is why I prefer managed bonds. They know this poo.
They are aware that some corp is crap, know that interest rates will turn at some point, understand currencies …etc etc…… anyway the bond position is a holding area. Ready to pounce back into the market once the skinning has been done.
I like all you guys….. just different strategies.
#92 Smoking Man on 09.13.16 at 1:58 am
Just got on an elevator with a tone of Chinese people, going back to my room to drink real JD. Shit at the bar is watered down. I’m convinced.
So I said to the group. Probably sluring a bit, we’re yo all from.. No answer. I tried again. Some 3 foot lady responds, they all start laughing…
Bastards have no idea I speak sort of mandarin and Cantonese. My import export company in the 90s.
I dident respond, played the dumb American.
We saw you Smoking Man.
https://twitter.com/dkurtenbach/status/775562761543688193
PB43
Way to go Neha (MIT PhD). “The Future of Money” is your Daily Dose of Disruption:
https://www.ted.com/talks/neha_narula_the_future_of_money
Oil continues to fall. Natch. It will approach zero value (apart from its utility in plastics). Because remember kids, You can’t compete with zero. Glut Glut Glut Glut.
“Most financial guys still believe the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of the year, and most Canadian bankers think the bond market will follow”
No one can stop anyone from dreaming. The ground reality says the opposite. But keep dreaming.
Lets here it for T2.
Last month’s job numbers are out, and under Trudeau, the number of positions in the public sector grew by 57,000.
At the same time 39,000 self-employed workers went out of business.
IMF head Lagarde congratulates T2 on how much money he’s spending.
Jeezzuzz!
#84 canuck on 09.12.16 at 11:40 pm
Both were state governors. Get serious. — Garth
_______________________________________________
So Barry the community organizer was qualified? Please… You get serious.
———————–
“Barry” worked as a community organizer after he graduated for 3 years. Then went to Harvard (got a book deal) and taught constitutional law for 12 years at the University of Chicago while working as a Civil Rights lawyer (11 years).
From 1997-2004 Illinois State Senator
From 2005-2008 U.S. Senator from Illinois
2008 onwards….well you know the rest.
All you could come up with to characterize his experience is his 1st gig after school as a community organizer that he performed for 3 years?
I suggest YOU get serious.
Best,
HD
…”gross negligence in failing to report their tax obligations correctly.”cbc.ca
============================
loopholes
purchasing overseas policies /multiple card swiping
buy insurance policies using renminbi, they can use them as collateral for US dollar-denominated loans. or cash out of the products into a foreign currency.
=========
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that both Singapore and Indonesia have agreed to, he said. They currently don’t include reporting on real estate holdings.
Indonesia, Singapore and other countries are adopting global tax reporting requirements to tell each other about nationals holding assets abroad.
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/rich-indonesians-snap-up-singapore-luxury-homes-as-taxman-calls/42440518
dow 16,000 when the us goes to the polls.
#44 Cory
If I remember correctly, the Democrats have never won 3 terms in a row. Will that continue.
——————
Check your memories – 5 times in a row (Roosevelt-Truman)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States
#142 HD on 09.13.16 at 1:49 pm
Nice response.
Almost a million Canadians couldn’t handle a 1-point interest rate rise, TransUnion says
Company research released Tuesday says that roughly 718,000 of them wouldn’t be able to keep their financial heads above water if their interest rate went up by as little as 0.25 percentage points.
And another 253,000 on top of that would go under if the rate they must pay on their debt increased by just one percentage point
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/transunion-debt-interest-rates-1.3759844
Playing the game to win is not working for a nation and time to be honest on how to do it correctly.
We definitely don’t need a leader to say one thing to get elected then once in, do another. Are they doing it for corporations for international trade but what about the people of that nation, who should come first.
When fudging the employment numbers like #140 Paul mentioned with “public grow by 57,000 same time 39,000 self-employed workers went out” means that it is time to use job numbers only in the self-employed sector. By using this method the true story is revealed, a better picture.
Fed Warns of Vulnerabilities Building in Commercial Real Estate
CRE prices have continued to outpace rental income,”
Meanwhile back in July
Fed’s Yellen Says Regulating Shadow Banks a ‘Huge Challenge’
““We simply have to expect that when we draw regulatory boundaries, and supervise intensely within them, that there is the prospect that activities will move outside those boundaries and we won’t be able to detect them, and if we can, we won’t have adequate regulatory tools,” Ms. Yellen said. “That is a huge challenge to which I don’t have a great answer.”
=============================
floating NAV and liquidity fee/redemption gate provisions taking effect in October 2016
http://www.kpmg.com/us/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/documents/sec-money-market-reform.pdf
=====================================
the Reserve Primary Fund lost 2/3 of its assets in 24 hrs
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/042116/4-factors-know-about-money-market-reform-2016-fii-bac.asp
===================================
What are VRDOs and ARS?
The runs on ARS and VRDO in 2008 allow us to distinguish the differential effects of explicit and implicit liquidity provisions on the running decision of investors.
The lack of public liquidity backstops make shadow money runnable. In fact, the recent financial crisis can be considered a modern bank run on the shadow banking system (see research by Gary Gorton and Andrew Metrick published in 2010 and 2012. For example, Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel K. Tarullo (2012) pointed out such fragility in the shadow banking system:
“[s]shadow banking also refers to the creation of assets that are thought to be safe, short-term, and liquid, and as such, “cash equivalents” similar to insured deposits in the commercial banking system. Of course, as many financial market actors learned to their dismay, in periods of stress these assets are not the same as insured deposits.”
What happened in the markets for VRDOs and ARS during the financial crisis?
See “Breakdown of auction rate securities markets,” congressional testimony by Leslie Norwood, September 18, 2008.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cenfis/publications/notesfromthevault/1506
shadow banks how it works
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/02/economist-explains-0
About the FED raising rates.
Raising rates this time around does not involve raising the FED Fund Rate thus making liquidity more scarce AND raising interest rates. It involves raising rates the FED pays to banks on the by now massive excess bank reserves (possible because the FED make more money on the asset it has purchased with the reserves).
What this means is that the rise in interest rate does not make money more scarce at it did in the past, liquidities remain abundant. One thing it should also do right away is have the US banks make more profit! Who knows what effect it’s going to have, will the banks just be happy to make more money and cut down on lending or will they use the extra margin to take on more risk? Nobody knows.
It’s an experiment, never been done before, no wonder the FED is taking it slow!
#118 Andrew t on 09.13.16 at 10:11 am
#84 canuck on 09.12.16 at 11:40 pm
Both were state governors. Get serious. — Garth
_______________________________________________
So Barry the community organizer was qualified? Please… You get serious.
—
He was a senator, you dolt.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yes…career Govt Worker. How has that been working out the last three decades?
May Allah help us…
Have you read the Koran infidel?
A million people could handle a one point increase that no one thinks is coming? Oh calamity!
common rules and the political will
economics commissioner Pierre Moscovici:
“We are going to go further, with proposals such as a relaunch of the CCCTB (common corporate tax base) and the establishment of a European black-list of tax havens.”
“The message must be heard – no more tax evasion, no more tax fraud, no more tax avoidance, no more aggressive tax planning.”
=======
tax residency shopping
Revealed: the Russian magnate who paid no tax for 13 years as UK …
“Chido Dunn of Global Witness said the government should stop “rolling out the red carpet to anyone that can afford it”. She said checks carried out on rich foreigners who bought luxury homes in London were “woefully inadequate”, and the “vast majority” granted visas or UK passports were Russian or Chinese.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/10/russian-oil-magnate-alexander-zhukov-uk-tax-arrangements-raise-concerns
======
Trumpians should read
The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project published a report on Ukrainian organized crime by Italian police,Rome, October 7 – 8, I998
https://www.occrp.org/documents/odesa-mayor-hides-construction-business-offshore/P21.pdf
@#118 Andrew
Based on that logic, Mike Duffy would be qualified. No?
No. US senators are elected. — Garth
A lot of Albertans would like to move to the okanagan ,, this is the Red Neck Rivera after-all but maybe you should re-consider.. We have a major rat problem here.. Rats all over the place.. I live in Peachland,, apparently the gem of the okanagan as per Realtor speak .. Anyway,, our cat killed 9 rats that I know of as I found them half eaten on our lawn and the next door neighbor`s cat killed 8 rats as he leaves them on their doorstep.. Our cat had to be put down just before Xmas as he had a serious blood clot and became paralyzed in his back legs and the neighbor`s cat just moved away.. I hope he has some rats in Castlegar where he moved to .. So..no cats,,big problem….. I put out a couple of rat traps
probably 2 weeks ago… Didn`t catch a rat as I was using my wife`s healthy
ass natural peanut butter.. I am thinking rat`s don`t give a rat`s ass about
healthy food so I picked up some Squirrel peanut butter at Walmart on
Sunday,,my favorite by the way so I can have my little peanut butter fix at
2 am or so every night .. Put it out last night on the trap and caught a
rat !! Woohoo!! ……….. Me-1 Rat`s-no score
US household income up 5.2% in 2015.
Across all income groups as well.
Poverty rate down.
Only 9.2% of US citizens without health insurance in 2015.
Add in all those fake job numbers and its not too shabby for a community organizer with a non-functional House and Senate going for him, eh?
source is the Census Bureau, that politicized bunch of actors, eh?
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/business/economy/us-census-household-income-poverty-wealth-2015.html?_r=2&utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
At #92: They said you were a stupid drunk American? You should have responded immediately with, “您有小的阴茎”
80 storey condo tower just got Toronto approval at Yonge and Bloor which will mess up the interchange at the subway, so who is on the take?
#126 -=jwk=- on 09.13.16 at 11:21 am
#82 berniebee. If all you want out of life is nothing, you’ve succeeded marvelously. I want a little more, and I want my kids to want a little more. I feel for your kids – what a stifling life. You should have seen the joy on my 6yr old face when we got him his new bike. Or how much our 4yr old loves his gymnastics coach. Or both of them staring in wonder at the Shanghai riverfront, counting the boats that go by.
Sure, we’re thrifty too – lots of hand me down clothes (and that bike is almost ready for the 4yr old), we sew patches on their jeans keens. When my mother in law comes to visit she brings sheets of penny a yard material and makes pajamas, curtains, skirts out of it. But being smart about your purchases isn’t the same as denying your kids everything!
—————–
I didn’t get the impression that berniebee’s kids were in any way deprived nor shortchanged with life. And equating him and his family with wanted nothing out of life (hence somehow inferior) is spiteful. Not everyone wants nor needs to have a gym coach for their 4 yr old. Some would prefer their kids at that age to be bonding only with their family.
I know it’s only 11 days but if the trend continues and September is a bust like August, strap on! Rollercoaster not stopping!
http://vancitycondoguide.com/september-sales-record-lows/
#150 pBrasseur on 09.13.16 at 3:23 pm
Never been done before? No wonder why nobody trusts it, and it’s a disaster.
MF
#147 fred egstone on 09.13.16 at 2:57 pm
Les incompétents…
Garth,
It’s your blog and you should moderate comments however you see fit. I think not including really nasty ones (that target individuals or ethnic groups, etc.) is a good practice. And I would love it if you started deleting all comments that say “First!” Those people have long ago convinced the rest of us that they are idiots. Publishing their comments only encourages them.
Yesterday as I was running a ten mile stretch of beach in Bali I was attacked by a gnarly dog who likely took envious offence to my virility….I was reminded of my relationship with Garth who deletes my comments more often than not, even though I’m right 100 percent of the time. I gave the mutt a drubbing with my flip flop to the cheers of admiring seniors who’d been menaced by the animals roving the beach. I thought this was the perfect metaphor for what has happened to savers. Bloody bankers,politicians and advisors have screwed savers, particularly seniors, out of their retirement by selling globalization, zip and zero returns. As a stock picker I see this offence as the only way savers will experience true alpha in their portfolio’s large and small, and with nitwits like T Ball Trudeau gouging taxpayers even more we must attack rather than capitulate into complacency if we are to survive. The LaGarde IMF speech about how Canada has fallen prey to progressive post national folly and Trudeau’s acquiescence to such BS shows us how much damage he will do if allowed to remain in office letting the UN run our economy.
Love love your blog Garth.
I am very grateful for your tremendous work/time and effort in trying to financially educate us all. THANK YOU!!!
I do love the comment, but I have definitely noticed a change over the past few months. Bullies should be deleted, repeat offenders banned.
There are many valuable comments, hilarious ones too which make me laugh out loud.
Garth is the Best
Teranet has published their August numbers today.
Surprisingly, it shows:
Vancouver HPI +1.75% month over month (+20.1% yoy)
And the sales-pair-count is higher than it has ever been?
So the frozen market and dropping prices haven’t made it into their stats yet.
I expected it to show up by now.
But at least the second derivative is negative now.
So maybe it will show up in their September numbers.
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx