Whoops. Was that a topping point there in the rear view mirror?
As the trading day slid by on Friday, more and more investors worried about that. When the last deal was done, New York had shed almost 400 points and Bay Street was skinnier by over 250. The biggest selloff since Brexit was unique. While that last dump by stocks came with a surge for bond prices, this time everything went down together. Interesting. What’s it mean?
“This is a big, big moment,” a New York CIO told Bloomberg, as every trading board in the world bled red. “Interest rates have bottomed.”
Blame it on central bankers – who these days have more influence than the weather. On Thursday the head of the European Central Bank (Mario Draghi) strongly suggested rates won’t drop anymore and everybody should stop expecting that to happen. A day before Bank of England head (and Canuck) Mark Carney said the same thing. Then on Friday the Fed really amped things up when official Eric Rosengren warned that without a rate hike soon the US economy will overheat, get inflationary and turn into a Samsung Note 7 bonfire.
Well, up she went.
The odds of the Fed raising rates in 11 days from now rocketed higher to 38% – up a huge 16% from Wednesday. Similarly markets are putting the chances of higher interest rates by the end of the year at 60%. This is all the more salient given some weak economic data lately, like a tepid jobs report, lousy manufacturing data and a kerplunk by the services sector. It suddenly seems like central banks are saying this: enough, already. We’re done.
So, the bond market went a little nuts, Yields spikes and prices plopped. US Treasuries tanked as rates climbed dramatically. German bonds rose from negative to zero for the first time in two months – up almost a fifth of a point in two days. Ten-year American government bonds jumped to almost 2.4%, after a summer drifting lower. Ditto in the UK and Japan. Meanwhile global equities slumped, in fears the central bank money tap has truly been turned off.
Now, this is fascinating but not fatal. Normally stocks and bonds are negatively correlated, moving in opposite directions. When they fall or rise together, something is definitely up. A fundamental change, or at least the anticipation of it.
Markets will adapt and likely restore their values. But if the tipping point has passed and we are moving now towards a normalization in the cost of money, however gradual that might be, then it matters a lot here in poor little Canuckistan, land of the debt-snoflers. As you know, a household debt-to-income ratio of 450% and more is normal among million-dollar home buyers in places like Toronto, where everyone’s supposed to be rich. Over 90% of all houses in Vancouver are ‘worth” at least $1 million even though household income is low and going nowhere.
We owe $1.2 trillion in mortgages and new debt is rising four times faster than wages. Last month, say GTA realtors, sales and prices shot to historic levels (if you believe them). And a new survey out this week is truly scary.
The poll by the real estate regulator found 57% of home-buyers in Toronto would exceed their maximum budget to win a bidding war. Of those, almost 40% said they’d spend 20% more than their budget – which equals almost $150,000 for the average digs. Yikes. And here’s another poll by CREA (the real estate guys are starting to get spooked) which reveals a third of all buyers are willing to bid on a house without even knowing if their financing has been secured.
No surprise here: the moisters are at greatest risk of doing such dumbass things as submitting an offer without being pre-approved, or any conditions on financing or home inspection. In fact, 42% of the damp ones admit “emotion” is a driving factor in their house horniness and questionable buying practices.
Now, recall the payroll findings this terrifying blog shared with you two days ago? Sure you do.
- Half of people would be screwed if they missed a single paycheque. Even for a week.
- Four in 10 spend 100% of their net income.
- A quarter don’t have $2,000 and couldn’t get it within a month.
- 50% can’t save 5% of what they make and 39% are ‘overwhelmed’ by debt, mostly mortgage debt.
So imagine for a brief minute that all the world’s equity and debt markets are correct, as opposed to your mom. Imagine rates have in fact bottomed and will inexorably wiggle their way higher over the years to come. Then, with wages stuck and debt so epic, why would houses go higher? Or stay high? Or not fall?
The extreme leverage that worked so well for some homeowners on the way up will work just as powerfully on the way down. Emotionally-driven kids over-bidding on assets that have never cost more with debt that will never cost less have much to learn.
There’s a point at which LOL gains tip towards OMG losses. Yup, back there.
132 comments ↓
Third!
LAST!
First !!
Excellent! When will it be time to buy?
eighth!!!!!!!
If these rates do rise, it will be devastating to our economy in Ontario no? 20% of economy is housing driven.
Also won’t it drop our dollar some more? 15 dollar heads of cauliflower in February?
Baby needs a new pair of shoes.
The odds of the Fed raising rates in 11 days from now rocketed higher to 38% – up a huge 16% from Wednesday.
Do you mean “up 16 percentage points?”
What? The Dow Jones down 400 and the TSX down 250? That’s nothing in the grander scheme of things, another tempest in a teapot. The fluctuations in line voltage coming to my home from London Hydro are greater as a percentage and all my appliances work JUST FINE. I checked my investments online around 1 PM and the drop was insignificant. I didn’t even know there was a drop in the markets until it was brought to my attention.
“Interest rates have bottomed.”
________________
I can hear Sonny & Cher singing I Got You Babe. Groundhog day again.
If you have stocks continue to hold them. It will take several increases in interest rates and probably several years before markets go down for an extended period.
Bingo!
I see only two or three years of house prices increases in Toronto and things will slow down.Remember Canada will cut the interest rate one more time.
My neighbour must have put his house up for sale in TREB N18, Georgina. I drove by to see the sold sign on it before I even knew it was listed. I guess that saves time for the realtor and sign guys to return, just stick the sold sign in right off the bat.
Garth, just wondering what effect rising interest rates have on laddered preferred share etfs. Do they rise or fall in value or no relation at all. Thanks
The Gold Silver ratio is on the upswing again. Some analysts point to this as a “metalic credit spread” and warning that credit is tightening.
My Millionaire Metric chart of Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto single family detached houses and a cash millionaire all valued in CAD gold is reflecting a market move towards gold again (after 3+ years out of favour) and with the steady erosion of real estate prices in Calgary, their SFDs are leading the way towards a value proposition for owning a house.
http://www.chpc.biz/millionaire-metric.html
Not so much of course in Vancouver and Toronto.
If rates do pop up in 11 days that Doug Rowat fellow is going to come off looking like a superstar.
Oh yeah, I forgot, he already is one.
True, True, True.
Who cares.
Makes me happy that 1/4 of my investments are in preferreds with rate resets tied to government bonds yields.
House prices? Why do I care? Why does anyone? You buy a house to live in, right?
You know, houses, like cars, depreciate with use. A 20 year old kitchen is a 60k renovation waiting to happen.
You know that land value increases gradually, mostly in line with currency inflation.
You know that real estate speculation (ie buying houses that you don’t intend to live in, for resale purposes) works on “unexpected land value increase” (read -“gentrification”)……like for example if they build an underground subway across the street from your Crack head infested dump.
You know that owning the means of production of the products consumed by the masses is THE only way to wealth.
What else is there to know or say?
Lessons learned hard are learned nonetheless.
History repeats.
The young rebel.
Yay. Pass the beer nuts.
“The extreme leverage that worked so well for some homeowners on the way up will work just as powerfully on the way down.” – GT
Not really. The downdraft will be far more powerful and devastating. When you buy a house and it goes up in value, you get the illusion of wealth. When house values plops and [email protected] tells you to bring in another $50K before they’ll renew the mortgage, or you can’t move to take that new better job because your home equity is negative, that’s when you get the copper taste of indenture in your dentures.
If these freaking morons have made houses into a lottery then that is their game to lose, not mine.
I own my house because I want to live in it.
If this is not the obviously clear reason for buying a house?
Whatever.
Freaking morons. Effing up the system. As usual.
And they’ll all complain to the government when their Ponzi scheme lotteries collapse.
Makes me embarrassed to be human.
Looks like the ” chickens are starting to come home to roost” for the Chinese? ?
More and more Chinese cases target property in Canada | Vancouver Sun
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/more-and-more-chinese-cases-target-property-in-b-c-say-lawyers
+26 K Job Creation in August (52.2 K full time, -26 K part time)…whew.
Almost all in the Public Sector (57 K jobs Public, 8.3 K Private, -39.1 K Self-Employed). Unemployment went up 0.1% to 7%, which is weird.
Year/Year, BC still outpacing all other provinces; although in August, an overall job loss of -6.6 K jobs (+22.4 K full time, -29 K part time).
Hey, a job’s a job. Better than July where 31 K jobs were lost overall. In all likelihood, thank T2 for stimulus job creation or August would have been a truly ugly month.
Still think we are on that job sucking recession precipice but staved off for a month at least which is excellent.
Those that have snubbed saving or unable to do so are in for a world of hurt – there is going to be a major recession that will last for years
Correct me if I am wrong but the Fed has never raised rates when the percentage was below 75%? Thus….if past behaviour is a predictor of future behaviour no rate increases this year. The reality is the globally we are awash in debt and current growth simply doesn’t service sustained rate increases. Rates may have bottomed but that doesn’t mean that we can’t stay at the bottom for a prolonged period of time. No rate increases no significant housing correction. It is more likely that we will see a healthy correction in the stock market before we see a similar correction in housing. Keep it real people….clearly common sense isn’t so common.
On the upside though looks like bright times are coming for the those who have some cash and want to plant some vegetables.
Funny how the markets are smelling October this soon.
And I thought only Costco was stocking up this early in preparation for Hallowe’en.
Apparently my teenager who has been working the last three summers and has $10,000 in his TFSA is in better financial shape than most Canadians!
2008 StatsCan Distribution of Mortgage Debt in Canada reported 65% of households own a home of which 57% made a mortgage payment (of those, 67% purchased a mortgage within 10 years). Mortgagees typically under 45 crowd. Then, the average price of a dwelling was $303,500 (about $508,500 now).
13.3 MM households x .65 x .57 equals about 4.9 MM households with mortgage debt and likely, 3.3 MM of those households will have mortgages very high in dollar terms (purchased in last 10 years, currently $1.2 Trillion in mortgages).
If rates go up and statistics are correct about household liquidity, the next 5 years as mortgagees renew, will be a bloody affair indeed…death by a 1,000 cuts.
Will have serious implications on the economy…mercifully, will be spread out over 5 years at least.
Check out this awesome read
http://globalnews.ca/news/2929141/housing-market-has-low-probability-for-collapse-rbc-report/
#18 Ex-Cowtown:- As for this powerful downdraft in Toronto for example how long do you estimate that the real bottom will take to set in?
I am always grateful when you distill what you’ve been reading into something my novice brain can grasp. Thank you.
“Large parts of the eurozone are slipping deeper into a deflationary trap despite negative interest rates and one trillion euros of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, leaving the currency bloc with no safety buffer when the next global recession hits.
The ECB is close to exhausting its ammunition and appears increasingly powerless to do more under the legal constraints of its mandate. It has downgraded its growth forecast for the next two years, citing the uncertainties of Brexit, and admitted that it has little chance of meeting its 2pc inflation target this decade, insisting that it is now up to governments to break out of the vicious circle.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/08/ecbs-mario-draghi-has-run-out-of-magic-as-deflation-closes-in/
I would like to say hi to the bar brothers out there keep saving your money boys! And to the pilot, yes it’s garths blog and he can say whatever the @$&?! He wants! Bar brothers love Garth!! The pilot not to sure…
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“DoubleLine Capital Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Gundlach said it’s time for fixed-income investors to prepare for rising interest rates and higher inflation by reducing the duration of their positions, moving money into cash and protecting against volatility.
“This is a big, big moment,” Gundlach said during a webcast Thursday. “Interest rates have bottomed…..
He said both Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton have advocated more spending on infrastructure, which would add fiscal stimulus to the economy as central bank low- and negative-interest rate policies across developed markets show diminishing returns.
“This idea that fiscal stimulus may be coming seems to be getting sniffed out by the bond market,” Gundlach said. More debt spending may increase the cost of government borrowing by adding supply and making investors demand higher yields, he said.
“People say, ‘How can rates rise?”’ he said. “That’s how they can rise and they’re sort of rising already.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-08/gundlach-says-it-s-time-to-get-defensive-as-rates-may-rise
Earlier in the week my long bet USDCAD was in the hole. 500k, I loaded up on an other few hundred contracts, p&l is at 1,075,406
Long Branch Apprentice. Tell em what your up.
It’s been a rough 18 months for the S&P500. Yes, very unusual that govt bonds and equities sold off in tandem today. Looks a lot like 2012 all over again for the bond market. Fed inaction accompanied with ever constant “guidance” has caused the market to become very anxious. It’s not surprising we’re seeing increasing volatility. I think the Fed moves in Sept and the equity market & DXY likes it. The bond market will not, however.
Not real sure that the logo for Hillary Clintons 2016 campaign is the best choice.
It has an arrow pointing sideways,I guess insinuating more of the same as the last eight years.
If you are going to use an arrow in your logo ,shouldn’t it be pointing up insinuating things are about to improve?
I’ll go and sit back down at the kiddies table now…
M42BC
How ironic!
“North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has banned sarcasm because he fears people only agree with him ironically, according to reports.
Government officials were apparently warned they will “not be forgiven” if they are heard being sarcastic…
One of the banned phases is “this is all America’s fault”, alluding to Mr Kim’s default position of blaming the US for everything that goes wrong.”
There I was thinking even his haircut was hipster ironic. Don’t challenge him lest you risk facing his mighty No-Dong.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/kim-jong-un-bans-sarcasm-in-north-korea-fearing-people-will-only/
Monday will be interesting.
#32 Nodebt on 09.09.16 at 8:30 pm
I would like to say hi to the bar brothers out there keep saving your money boys! And to the pilot, yes it’s garths blog and he can say whatever the @$&?! He wants! Bar brothers love Garth!! The pilot not to sure…
……
Obviously your hammered. I can now ordain into Doghood.
Brief ceremony…………
Welcome brother, may your future posts be delivered as honest or as bull shit as posable so long as you fear no judgement of others and welcome it.
The only key to ture pure happiness.
Using Garth’s 10% of 2009 US RE Market defaulting caused that debacle.
Well consider this:
3.3 MM households / 13.3 MM households = about 25%
are mortgaged households with very high leverage. Thank God pain distributed over +5 years, still, chilling numbers if rates will go up as projected.
#20 Happening Now:
China’s ‘shadow lending’ industry is legendary. Tradition is that accounts are settled during the celebration of the Lunar new year.
If Vancouver sales and prices keep declining through October and November, look for things to accelerate in December and January.
#26 Julia on 09.09.16 at 8:02 pm
“Apparently my teenager who has been working the last three summers and has $10,000 in his TFSA is in better financial shape than most Canadians!”
Then you may be interested in this, which says Gen Zers are frugal:
https://www.fastcompany.com/3062475/most-creative-people/your-guide-to-generation-z-the-frugal-brand-wary-determined-anti-millen
The best part about leveraging and understanding the risk is the excitement of knowing at any point it could all go south.
I went to the bank and asked for a LOC more than my salary. They said wtf? What you using it for? Uh…. to “invest”
Got rejected. A week later my cc got a pre approval for by 50% increase
To funny, today while drafting a resignation letter I get an email from the same client I’m supplying service too.
It reads, thanks for the work you did on bla bla bla projects. We’re not renewing the contract..
So happy I diden’t have to be the bad guy in this relationship.
Was on site all week to our paying clients training centre. I showed up late everyday just reaking of booze. When it was my turn to speak, long pause then
Ah. Hum. Silence, then a few my Co contractors. Step in to save the day..
By after noon, when I can actually talk I start speaking in short sentences. We are recording the goto session.
I played it back on the road trip to Senica tonight before Laughlin trip tomorrow…
I sound just like Hunter S Thompson
Over indulgence in alcohol abuse should only be attempted when you don’t need a job.
#17 Ace Goodheart
Spot on!
Spent my “formative years” in Germany (speak fluent Deutsche).
Spent my last 20 years pretending to be a “wage slave” in NA.
I can tell you folks I have lived everywhere south east Asia to Europe to South and Central America I have been there.
If you want money.
That is it.
Just legal tax declared money
Best bet is ETFS
If you are mired in RE I can’t help you. You played the lottery. Hope you winned.
Basically people who are holding residential mortgages are effed. The amount to which depends on exposure.
Own your house. Pay it off.
#40 Smoking Man: – Did you hear what Kathleen is going to do as your beloved Premier? She will be implementing a school program for dyslexic children.
#45 Smoking Man: You owe Kathleen an apology as your beloved Premier. She is implementing a school program for dyslexic children.
My buddy in the basement, aka GITB, managed to get a realtor to give him a password to http://www.matrix.crebtools.com.
The site has historical information on Calgary real estate – much like Zillow. I don’t believe liars need privacy protection and info should be made public. There will always be a looky-lou – just human nature to want to be superior or explain why you are not. If you have nothing to hide, why feel guilty or shameful. It would help buyers from getting fleeced but adults know what they are doing – eh?
Talk about fear and floathing.
I got a good first book. I’m a full time fiction writer now.
The next book, thinking,….. I’m drawing a blank. What the hell am I going write about..
Life gets to complicated if you over think.
Hello my friend Jack…… You always have good advice..
1% GDP growth.
Big miss in August jobs report.
5 consecutive quarters of declining corporate profits.
Manufacturing ISM negative.
Services ISM lowest since 2009.
Worst labor force participation since late ’70s.
Inflation stubbornly below Fed 2% target.
World at 0% or negative rates.
This Fed is so “data dependent” they’ve been waiting for the absolute worst data to continue the “liftoff” from 9 months ago. It’s really bad data they want, right?
No rate hike coming, everyone here will be fooled again this week when the screaming CNBC graphic reads “unchanged.”
Odds of a September rate hike are currently 38%. — Garth
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Message for Mrs Boom!
Can you go outside and see if your husband got locked out of the house by your new patio doors…
M42BC
garth, when are you going to face the music about the amt of chinese money laundering coming into canada, and much of it speculated $$ used to be going towards gambling as buying up our real estate?…cbc vancouver tonight had a great indepth program on it..esp how the chinese are only allowed to declare $50k rmb leaving China…so of these ”that were caught” (imagine the est 100s of millions NOT caught) so much for getting taxed or doing a paper trail.
…thus also so much for the BC liberals and their BS study ‘it’s only 5-10% of real estate done by foreign investors’ lmao…yeah right more like the ‘accounted for’…this latest ‘breaking’ story is something most of us suspected all along.
”Seizures of undeclared cash spike at Vancouver International Airport”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/seizures-of-undeclared-cash-spike-at-vancouver-international-airport/article31787802/
”Seizures of undeclared cash spike at Vancouver International Airport”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/undeclared-cash-vancouver-airport-1.3755414
All the cash seized in 2015 would not buy one house on the Westside. Non-story. — Garth
Smoking Man have a nice 4 day vacation and it will be a bit chilly at night so be sure to pack a sweater and perhaps a windbreaker. The days look challenging with temps hitting 106F for this period and there is a problem with the hydro so don’t count on the air conditioners working all the time.
Typo, last sentence should read, “…fooled again this month”
Excellent, let us hope the rates do go up. Let’s call a spade a spade and see where the American economy is really heading; we all know where the Canadian economy is heading lead by, well, I have no idea besides the usual special interest groups that seem to be winning.
C’est la vie!
#52 Smoking Man on 09.09.16 at 9:42 pm
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.
Another Friday night. Were over indulgence is spelt in caps. Yeah I should not have used the B word referencing our lovely premiere.
Bueaty is in the eye of the beholder. Did I use the other B word.?
I’ll try again…
#49 Context on 09.09.16 at 9:25 pm
#45 Smoking Man: You owe Kathleen an apology as your beloved Premier. She is implementing a school program for dyslexic children.
Fk it. Kathleen Wynee your the best… Your great. You are my love, you are perfect..
Love you babe….
Attention Millennial Thrill Seekers
Start Ctrl-F-ing Smoking Man. Read his posts, particularly one from May 2015 where he outlines an Fx bet. If you don’t understand it, use Google and Youtube and don’t be afraid to admit you’re ignorant at first.
Since last Dec I’ve made more than previous 2 yrs income combined, all while staying home to raise my puppy.
It’s scary at first, just like a motorcycle. But when you learn to say, oh well why not, then the fun really begins.
Much wisdom abounds on this blog.
Try to be like Nicholas Cage in the Ferrari, at least a little bit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JE8tV1_7SVM
Imagine the money the insiders are making off the money markets.
ATM Yellen 2.0
When me, Charles Ashman, Bryer Barrington and Jeremiah Chew are shot at in the safety of our plasma fliers. This song was our exit tune. Happens every time Nictonites leave a building. And exits song.
https://youtu.be/bg5eF4Ld-Fw
Now, recall the payroll findings this terrifying blog shared with you two days ago? Sure you do.
Half of people would be screwed if they missed a single paycheque. Even for a week.
Four in 10 spend 100% of their net income.
A quarter don’t have $2,000 and couldn’t get it within a month.
50% can’t save 5% of what they make and 39% are ‘overwhelmed’ by debt, mostly mortgage debt.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Imagine if all the “golden handshake” public sector was removed along with the ilk of SNC Lavelin (quasi public sector workers building public bridges, roads and skytrains).
Now that number is closer to 70 or 75%.
What a great stable well run country Canada is……
#21 Not all bad news… on 09.09.16 at 7:43 pm
+26 K Job Creation in August (52.2 K full time, -26 K part time)…whew.
Almost all in the Public Sector (57 K jobs Public, 8.3 K Private, -39.1 K Self-Employed). Unemployment went up 0.1% to 7%, which is weird.
Year/Year, BC still outpacing all other provinces; although in August, an overall job loss of -6.6 K jobs (+22.4 K full time, -29 K part time).
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So 8K jobs are going to pay the salaries of 57K Govt jobs. Wow….can’t imagine why the Govt Worker pension system is 500 BILLION dollars underfunded. Your tax dollars at work.
As Paul Simon sang:
“…the nearer your destination, the more you’re slip-sliding awayyyyyy…”
Ain’t that the truth!
Scary.
My Friday report to the council on Nictonite.
Huge chick at the bar too many bags of chips in her history. She moves real good. Tattoos all over her back. Obviously good tolarance too pain.
Human private parts don’t change in size no matter how many bags of chips we eat in a life time.
Freedom First… Go for it..
Only so much research I’m willing to do.
Might rates move, 25 basis points in the US….sure.
What are the odds of them moving 250 basis points, any time soon?
ZER0.
Small moves mean nothing, wake me when unemployment or mortgage rates move an honest 2%, until then this is just the same rate doom we’ve been hearing for years.
Growth still sucks and without it, rates go nowhere.
The fairy tales and folklore you hear just before the U.S. election are beyond belief. By this time next year both Canada and America will be running negative interest rates just like Europe.
@#21 Not all bad news…
The job market in Canada (for me, specifically in Ontario) is truly HORRENDOUS despite an uptick in hiring in August. And by the way, the unemployment rate went UP because when places start to hire even a few more people, then all those who’ve sat on the sidelines (having given up on a job over the previous several months) decide to get back into job-hunting. Thus because they are actively looking for work, they get counted again in the unemployment stats (you need to be actively looking for work in the past 4 weeks to get counted). The labour participation rate (the % of population age 15 & over who are working) tells the tale…it’s steadily declined since 2008. It’s because people can’t find work. I know, because I was just looking and it’s certainly the worst labour market I’ve ever encountered, and I have had 8 different jobs over the past 27 years, all advertised positions that I’ve applied to and interviewed for. I’ve never had to work so hard in my life to find a job.
#65 Smoking Man on 09.09.16 at 10:49 pm
My Friday report to the council on Nictonite.
Huge chick at the bar too many bags of chips in her history. She moves real good. Tattoos all over her back. Obviously good tolarance too pain.
Human private parts don’t change in size no matter how many bags of chips we eat in a life time.
Freedom First… Go for it..
Only so much research I’m willing to do.
—
Smoker dude….. How do you tell if a “Huge chick at the bar too many bags of chips in her history.” is excited??
Good joke… that unfortunately the host would DELETE!
@#26 Julia
Fun story: a friend of mine encouraged her teenage daughter to save a portion of all earnings during high school (good move). Then when she recently turned 19, the question was, “what to do with the money” (which I assume was probably $10K or more)….turns out the daughter just BOUGHT A HOUSE (with Mom as a co-signer) in her college town…
I at least applaud the idea of not letting all that cash during high school just get wasted on phones and frivolity….much harder to earn money once the student debt piles up and real life (bills) start to ruin the fun
So they created this insanity now there just going to f up there creation. Go against there inflation targets. That makes sense.
Got an email from “Wonderlist” (Toronto Star) inviting me to a special presentation on an “amazing” investment opportunity for new student condos in Waterloo (called URL condos) promising a 16% return on investment by renting out the purchased unit, which then – according to their numbers – bumped up to a 40% RETURN ON INVESTMENT when including CAPITAL APPRECIATION….you better not miss out!
We finally made it to The Belfountain General Store today and the three of us had a nice lunch on the patio. Kudos to you for the renos Garth, the store looks fantastic, and the surrounding countryside is stunning.
As a long distance traveler, I wish it had a public washroom, but the nice girl behind the counter let my friend use the private one.
Highly recommended.
Excellent as usual.
However, it is the Samsung Note 7 that has the problem. Not the S7.
If you have been following my technical analyst posts here, you wouldn’t be surprised by today’s move. It was easy to predict, same as the leave vote in BREXT that I posted 4 days before the vote and the CAD/USD going to 1.4
The markets will turn down till Oct, then after the election go back up.
Make money. Don’t panic.
Few yrs back my older one came home from school and told me dad can i give your dictionary to new kid in a class, she is like you her englis is bad, she always ask me “***** can you learn me this”. what brings me to the point, childrens are fuuny little people, aparently they can talk dog language.
Although most dog owners think they know what their barking dog wants, good communication remains difficult. Researchers asked children and adults to listen to recordings of barking dogs and link those sounds to facial expressions of dogs on photos. They found that children under ten years are much more likely to match the right sound with the right picture.
http://www.ua-magazine.com/children-understand-dog-language/
————
@ brazil dude
http://www.aftenposten.no/norge/Norways-prime-minister-and-several-government-members-censored-by-Facebook-604195b.html
https://www.buzzfeed.com/mathonan/facebook-co-founder-commits-20-million-to-help-democrats-win?utm_term=.ip7j79o39#.mdAaQNE5N
——
@ anyone who can code
https://hakaru-dev.github.io/
Hakaru is a probabilistic programming language. A probabilistic programming language is a language specifically designed for manipulating probability distributions.
how good is this??????
——
i dont know is this global warming or just human stupidity.
http://www.livescience.com/56051-world-wilderness-catastrophic-declines.html
—-
question of the day
why did apple canceled hedphon jack?
hint: who owns beats?
—–
Interesting link about Gen Z:
https://www.fastcompany.com/3062475/most-creative-people/your-guide-to-generation-z-the-frugal-brand-wary-determined-anti-millen
Firstly, don’t get mad Garth, I am as anti-bigotry as you are, but facts do not lie and nor, hopefully, the BC Supreme Court:
Maybe not the Westside but: a Toronto mansion worth $100 million was bought by a guy who went to a bank in China, defrauded them, got a loan and all the money in one day, and moved to Canada and bought that mansion.
A 2015 B.C. Supreme Court award of $670 million to the Bank of China against money allegedly laundered through buying multiple homes and setting up bank accounts in Richmond.
China Citic Bank, won a so-called Mareva injunction from B.C. Supreme Court, prohibiting the sale of four Vancouver-area homes worth $7.2 million. The homes belong to a couple who were alleged to have “fled China” with an unpaid $10-million loan.
Just a few examples and probably the tip of the iceberg. A long time ago I posted that the Chinese Govt. would come after these fraudsters…well, here we are.
Did they make a market and then lead to its devaluation as in YVR RE…probably. Ross Kay stated that as of April 2016 Chinese and foreign money dried up completely…coincidentally, that was the peak of YVR RE prices and units sold.
____________________________________
#63 Brazil ex-pat
Lighten up.
All we are reading nowadays, and for the past year in general, is bad news.
Finally, a good news story but oh no, let’s beat on the Public Employees (incl. Civil Service)…recall the intrepid author of this Blog, was once one himself, and currently cashing in some of that unfunded pension money I would suspect…assuming Garth is at least 55 years old; if not, that would make him a Moister and altruistic…as if.
;-)
Looks more like 2008 all over again!
I have not contributed to my balanced/diversified portfolio this year yet, this could be a good time.
I have to say playing with crypto-currencies has been more fun and profitable so far.
Ok you smart dudes and dudettes out there. I am primarily in cash as of amazingly 2 days ago. Now when do I jump back in? What is the signal? I have a portfolio manager, who I asked to let me know when to jump back in. I am going to test him to see if I actually hear back from him? The problem is I’m paying him 1% whether I hear from him or not?
Doug in London. What are you invested in?
Ace Goodheart, what do you hold in your portfolio?
Smoking man, teach me fx. When you first start, what percentage of your net worth do you start with.
I know rehashing but many Commenters giving Garth a rough time about percentages in list price drops.
OK then, what about actual $, real time, recent in the past few days MLS price drops (actual listings and MLS data)…keep scrolling, it is non-ending, all over the GVRD and not just detached homes, also condos and townhomes as well (depressing to read if you hold YVR RE, definitely I would take Garth’s early July advice and bail if YVR RE is an investment…the guy is sarcastic but funny):
https://twitter.com/timberjrackie
#65 Smoking Man
Freedom First…Go for it..
……………………………………………….
Yes. OK. Surprisingly, to the majority of men, excluding me of course, the fact is that women are all the same, regardless of size. Just ask the husbands.
That being said, women are far far far smarter than men, as a whole. Again, excluding me, of course, as I always come First.
The consensus on The Harper Government amounts to critical thinking on his one trick pony plan of counting on oil.
But, but , but when a financial adviser suggests paper, paper and more paper, that is diversification!
Roger that control tower, buy paper, as we come in for a hard landing!
“There’s a point at which LOL gains tip towards OMG losses. Yup, back there.”
Wowie Garth, this is by far one of your most incisive comments. I too believe we just passed that point and are we glad we didn’t budge to join the fray of drooling, overspending idiots.
Nevertheless…….might it also be possible that the US cb might be jockeying interest rates to support the greenback in the event of a Trump win?
#9 CJBob on 09.09.16 at 7:01 pm
“Interest rates have bottomed.”
________________
“I can hear Sonny & Cher singing I Got You Babe. Groundhog day again.”
Maybe…..but then they split up. Watch your own back, it’s much safer.
Eric Rosengren is worried about the US economy overheating? Ok.
The Fed may raise interest rates in September, but it won’t be because of improving economic data. It will be so the Fed doesn’t lose credibility, and to show they are apolitical with the upcoming Presidential election.
What will they do? I have no idea.
But keep in mind, all this fuss about a singular QUARTER POINT interest rate rise. Everybody has lost perspective on this. It’s a singular QUARTER POINT interest rate rise, not the beginning of a sequence of rises every FOMC meeting like Greenspan did in the mid-2000s.
Things aren’t good; now is as fine a time as ever to have a large % of your wealth in cash.
This blog discussed a bit Norway, here is an interesting piece:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-09/one-lifelong-socialist-norwegians-perspective-trump
Apparently, the only type of real estate expected to rise in value dramatically over the next few years are Poorhouses!
http://www.poorhousestory.com/history.htm
History repeats itself.
Thanks Billary.. that ought to seal it. You’re gonna be coughing for 8 years.
El Presidente Trump
Patriotic Millionaires’ Chair Morris Pearl Releases Statement on Lauer’s ‘Epic Fail’
By Staff on Sep 08, 2016 in Press Release, government
http://patrioticmillionaires.org/2016/09/08/patriotic-millionaires-chair-morris-pearl-releases-statement-on-lauers-epic-fail/
================================
How the Carried-Interest Loophole Makes the Super-Rich Super-Richer
A tax break that benefits only about 2,000 people adds up to billions in savings for them — and billions lost for the US economy.
By Judith Lewis Mernit | June 23, 2016
…”It’s so unfair to the middle class,” Hindery tells Capital & Main. “You adopt a progressive tax system, and then people get to abuse it.” The tax break benefits only about 2,000 people in the country, “mostly men, concentrated in a handful of states,” he says. Hindery estimates the lower tax rate saves the combined lot of them $10 billion to $12 billion every year. With that kind of money, he says, “you could fix all the municipal water problems in this entire country. It’s just a fraud.”
Carried interest, or “carry,” gets its name from the days when medieval ship captains demanded a 20-percent profit on the goods they carried from Europe to Asia, to compensate them for risking life and bounty braving pirate-infested and storm-tossed seas. Though the metaphor has stuck, the risk to the modern fund manager isn’t nearly so extreme; in fact, it’s hardly a risk at all. Private-equity firms make only miniscule contributions to their investment schemes; the rest they raise from “limited partners,” such as retirement funds and other fiduciaries. Those partners pay an annual management fee of 2 percent on the capital investment, and a 20-percent “carry” on any profits the investment brings in.”
==
Global dreamers ? charity industry
http://www.sbrchina.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/SBR_12016_coverstory.pdf
charity through time
http://www.bbc.co.uk/ethics/charity/against_1.shtml
#79 Finally, a good news story but oh no, let’s beat on the Public Employees (incl. Civil Service)…recall the intrepid author of this Blog, was once one himself, and currently cashing in some of that unfunded pension money I would suspect…assuming Garth is at least 55 years old; if not, that would make him a Moister and altruistic…as if.
_______________
This has been brought up before on this blog. Garth donates his pension to the SPCA.
@Last of the boomers, post #82:
Part of my portfolio, one account, is mainly a mix of REITs, pipeline and electric utility companies (they all pay generous dividends), ETFs, and on the US side I also have BRK-B and dividend payers like PG, JNJ, and KO. Recently I have also been loading up on assets that have been or still are on sale like preferred share ETFs, XEG, POT, CCO, and HNY. I much prefer to buy assets when they are on sale. As I’ve said here many, many, many, many, many, many times before, invest in the same manner a governor controls the speed of an engine, giving it more fuel/air mixture when the speed drops and less when the speed goes up. This recent “drop” in the markets (as I said before, a tempest in a teapot) is nowhere near enough to warrant a serious buying binge. It doesn’t look like it’s Black Friday or Boxing Day yet.
My other investment account is professionally managed by some people who know a lot more about investing than I do, or ever will.
Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson (what’s an Aleppo) was asked who’d he vote for if a gun was pointed at his head. “I’d let it go off,” Johnson replied.
Can the US election get any worse? I think we may have reached a tipping point.
Latest Kathy Tomlinson Globe Report on Vancouver RE out today. We are being played like idiots.
CRA, Govt, Banks ……whistling past the graveyard
Is this “guy” connected enough to know something or just an outright lunatic?
https://youtu.be/9yTWtm-mUJE
This is the best article I’ve read all year on the role of foreign money in Vancouver real estate. I came away from reading it very angry at the stupidity of our politicians and those who support narratives that foriegn money is a minor factor based on political correctness, stubbornness or self interest. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/out-of-the-shadows/article31802994/?post_id=10208576813271923_10208576864713209#_=_
#88 Millenial on 09.10.16 at 9:15 am
Eric Rosengren is worried about the US economy overheating? Ok.
The Fed may raise interest rates in September, but it won’t be because of improving economic data. It will be so the Fed doesn’t lose credibility, and to show they are apolitical with the upcoming Presidential election.
What will they do? I have no idea.
But keep in mind, all this fuss about a singular QUARTER POINT interest rate rise. Everybody has lost perspective on this. It’s a singular QUARTER POINT interest rate rise, not the beginning of a sequence of rises every FOMC meeting like Greenspan did in the mid-2000s.
Things aren’t good; now is as fine a time as ever to have a large % of your wealth in cash.
—
It may only be a quarter point but this increase would effectively double interest paid. The more of these notched up that happen the less extreme their impact is, specifically on consumers in Canada up to their eyeballs in debt.
Love the analysis in today post, by the way.
To hear the nightly newscasts tell it, today’s market drop was due to investors being spooked by North Korea’s nuclear test.
Not that it matters but seeing as you are BlogDogs wasting time with Garth on a Saturday…I was comparing some Rubber Tree land in Trang province in Thailand with some Ocean Front land on Haida Kwai in BC.
Findings: BC Ocean Front land was almost 750K Thai Baht per rai (1 acre = 2.5 thai rai) . Thai Rubber tree land was 335K Baht per rai.
Also found out there is downward pressure on rubber prices. Overproduction in Thailand as plantations get bigger and more efficient and Chinese demand is down. Small plantations in SE Asia are selling.
Conclusions: If you are doing comparisons like this with a Grape Martini in your hand on a Saturday afternoon you might be a Greater Fool Blog Dog Expat.
And I might go in on the Rubber Tree land as it is close to the coast and I could make it into a B and B ecotour.
Get holidaying Gen Z’ers to harvest my rubber for free and start a Trojan factory and sell the Trojans back to the Gen Z’ers at the Full Moon party on Koh Phangnan.
Win Win
oops small correction…
overproduction in Viet Nam nt Thailand although Thailand overproduces as well.
And maybe condom sizes are going down too and Millennials are using less because they are too busy working to pay oversized mortgages.
Smoking Man…you should really try these Grape Martinis
Where is Sir Lew? Its time for him to come on stage as bought my play ticket for a front row seat awaiting for his performance. Let the dark drama begin because the audience is becoming restless.
The tale of two cities
http://www.businessinsider.com/canada-housing-bubble-in-toronto-and-vancouver-2016-9
For Garth, who still thinks that millennials with loans from mom and dad were the ones that ran up RE in Vancouver.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/out-of-the-shadows/article31802994/
Oh it was locals alright, locals with a steady money stream to the mainland and complicit banks and CRA.
Thats why the whole thing died instantly when the tax went on. Imagine someone buying a 2 million property all of a sudden stopped in their tracks by a little 15% tax.
As proven here, sales were down by the same volumes before the tax was implemented. Nice try, but your prejudice is showing. — Garth
Well, from perusing https://twitter.com/timberjrackie MLS data today, got depressed and concluded, no soft landing here.
Agree with Garth about today’s point of no return for cheap rates.
Having said that, looking at the volatility of pretty much all you read about in recent months in the world economies…expect rates to be volatile as well, as in up more rapidly than most expect.
No reason for them to increase rapidly but I am expecting it.
Like there was no reason recently for YVR RE to implode, GDP to stagnate and August jobs to be rescued by Public spending…expect the unexpected seems to be the norm in 2016.
#39 “Monday will be interesting.”
monday down shaking out the weak hands….
tuesday blast off a la Brexit….
“But it’s all right now, in fact, it’s a gas!
But it’s all right, I’m Jumpin’ Jack Flash
It’s a gas! Gas! Gas!”
#82 Last of the boomers on 09.10.16 at 2:07 am
Ok you smart dudes and dudettes out there. I am primarily in cash as of amazingly 2 days ago. Now when do I jump back in? What is the signal? I have a portfolio manager, who I asked to let me know when to jump back in. I am going to test him to see if I actually hear back from him? The problem is I’m paying him 1% whether I hear from him or not?
Doug in London. What are you invested in?
Ace Goodheart, what do you hold in your portfolio?
Smoking man, teach me fx. When you first start, what percentage of your net worth do you start with.
…..
What ever you feel comfortable losing. This is not a game for amatures, or earthlings, you relly need to know how the world works. Disect lies and narratives. Know the 5 WWWWW
Then guts… My advice, stay away or paper trade for 2 or 3 years.
And don’t lie to yourself take your hits and learn from them
#104
Once I asked a senior Canadian executive “Besides Oil and Gas, what drives the Economy in Canada”.
His response “We, Canadians sell inflated housing to each other and consider it Innovation”.
In Toronto the rise in home prices had nothing whatsoever to do with foreign money as the trigger mechanism. It was all ethnic groups mostly born in Canada carrying on a historical tradition of speculation to make a fast dollar by flipping or holding on the way up. The dads and uncles did it and now it was their turn.
#97 Decisions, decisions on 09.10.16 at 11:27 am
Is this “guy” connected enough to know something or just an outright lunatic?
Ha ha!
Ron Paul is a certified tin-foil wearing crack-pot.
He will tell you the craziest sh*t, including “AIDS was engineered by US government.” and “WTC bombing was done by Mossad.”
That kinda loony, and a racist, homophobe and anti-semite to boot!
Ignore.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/01/ron-paul-newsletter-iowa-caucus-republican?page=2
This is the South Burnaby house that went up for auction earlier this year. The highest bid was $1.5 million which the owner thought was too low. This was then listed on MLS at $1.65 million or thereabouts. Now it is listed with a different agent for $1.488 million and it is just sitting there… will the owner continue to chase the market down as Burnaby home values decline by $1,000/day?
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17276698/6707-BURFORD-STREET-Burnaby-British-Columbia-V5E1R9
Hey Garth For this statement, “And here’s another poll by CREA (the real estate guys are starting to get spooked) which reveals a third of all buyers are willing to bid on a house without even knowing if their financing has been secured.
No surprise here: the moisters are at greatest risk of doing such dumbass things as submitting an offer without being pre-approved, or any conditions on financing or home inspection. ”
Some questions:
1) In the last one year in GTA, How may houses have you come across that were not staged for bidding war? None
2) Doesn’t matter if you are a first timer or have done all that, If you put in any condition: financing or home inspection; in this market, does your bid even count? My realtors says nope!
3) Has anyone else noticed the magic number: 699K? I see 9/10 listed at around that price – all staged for bidding war – and going 825+
And no one speaking out or doing anything against TREB that masks all information that a buyer should know? When transparency is taken out of equation, what else can you expect?
#105 Not 1st – regardless of whether or not this was a factor in the pushing up and supporting insane prices in the YVR market, this situation is still a disgrace to the banks, professional accountants preparing false returns (i.e. who know or should know all sources of their client’s taxable income which should be reported and disclosed) and in particular CRA. This kind of tax leakage as a result of poor oversight and stewardship on the parts of the financial institutions and our federal tax enforcement programs can’t be tolerated.
It is almost 10:00 AM in Laughlin, Nevada and the Smoking Man flying out of Buffalo should be landing in a few hours. Its sunny and bright there now and the high today is a modest 107F. I hope he didn’t forget to pack a sweater and windbreaker as its a tad cooler at night. I checked the comments on his fine resort hotel which were good with a couple of exceptions. One lady said the kids here are driving me nuts as they are pushing all the buttons on the elevators. Another lady said the free buffet is tasteless and her dog eats better.
To all you Canada bashers …. please list some better run counties for us to consider
Re: #10 Timmy on 09.09.16 at 7:03 pm
Are you good friends with all the bankers and the U.S. FED? Presently the stock market is the most overvalued in history. Believe it or not the bankers make nothing if they don’t sell all their 400 percent overvalued stocks. They know this and if they wait too long they’ll be no one to sell them to except amoungst all the other bankers pulling the same ruse. Maybe this guy on youtube can enlighten you. He posts daily.
https://www.youtube.com/user/GregVegas5909/videos
55 chopstix on 09.09.16 at 9:47 pm
garth, when are you going to face the music about the amt of chinese money laundering coming into canada, and much of it speculated $$ used to be going towards gambling as buying up our real estate?…cbc vancouver tonight had a great indepth program on it..esp how the chinese are only allowed to declare $50k rmb leaving China…so of these ”that were caught” (imagine the est 100s of millions NOT caught) so much for getting taxed or doing a paper trail.
…thus also so much for the BC liberals and their BS study ‘it’s only 5-10% of real estate done by foreign investors’ lmao…yeah right more like the ‘accounted for’…this latest ‘breaking’ story is something most of us suspected all along.
”Seizures of undeclared cash spike at Vancouver International Airport”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/seizures-of-undeclared-cash-spike-at-vancouver-international-airport/article31787802/
”Seizures of undeclared cash spike at Vancouver International Airport”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/undeclared-cash-vancouver-airport-1.3755414
All the cash seized in 2015 would not buy one house on the Westside. Non-story. — Garth
——————–
garth that is ‘undeclared’ cash that was ‘caught’…millions were brought in
latest from barn buster kathy tomlinson of the globe and mail, this morning:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/out-of-the-shadows/article31802994/
#82 Last of the boomers
Buy – Anything that will increase in value when interest rates rise… ie, financial sector, bio-tech,
Sell – Anything that will decrease in value when interest rates rise… ie preferreds, dividends, long bonds, rail roads, autos, etc.
Wait till the market drops 5%+, then go in at levels like, 5, 10, 15, etc, buy both UP and DOWN since you can’t time it perfectly.
A bite of the apple is better than nothing.
DIVERSIFY, and go with something YOUR RISK TOLERANCE can handle. I.e. If you can handle up to a 16% drop in your assets, a balanced 60/40 (stock/bond) is for you.
And, NEVER, EVER, go in 100% at once.
More tepid sales here in Metro Vancouver.
Yesterday’s total sales? A paltry 91
cardboard casket
http://www.eeternity.com/
sm’s new company…franchises available
real life like, post turtle mail boxes
for the people still looking for sm house with google earth
it’s the one with the used toilet paper drying outside
sm, in Nevada,pick up a cactus burner for a great steak
Garth, with your experience with CRA, it would be awesome if you did a post or three on your recommendations for improving oversight of tax collection — http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/out-of-the-shadows/article31802994/
Thanks for your response and advice to Blog Dogs:
Doug in London (thanks for including specific picks; I hold a of your suggestions and will consider your other picks when the timing is right)
Technical Analyst (amazing advice! I am fairly new to investing and have a conservative advisor for the bulk of my portfolio but want to learn and invest a small portion on my own. I want to eventually be able to guide my children as well. Can you give a few examples of “financials”, I have both U.S dollars and CDN. Do you mean specifically “bank stock” as opposed to ETF preferreds. I have both right now but have been lightening up on the bank stock and bought preferreds when they were down. Should I have been going in the opposite direction?
Any specific biotech picks? I believe in biotech despite the risk. I believe in the future of technology.
Thanks for the caution,
Smoking Man
Quest
#119
Wait till the market drops 5%+, then go in at levels like, 5, 10, 15, etc, buy both UP and DOWN since you can’t time it perfectly.
You can’t time it, period.
So, no, don’t wait.
If you invest for long term, get in now, 100%
It may go up, it may go down.
It doesn’t matter… while you wait, you get paid!
(Just make sure you buy dividend paying stock though.)
In any market, there will be companies that based on their fundamentals are valued lower than their peers. Just buy those.
What I do, I use a stock screener and find companies that have low debt, growing revenue, growing earnings, a minimum of market cap, and >2.5% div yield. If price-to-book, price-to-sales, price-to-earnings look good -> buy and forget.
20 yrs later, you will thank your younger self.
Bram
PS: diversification is overrated for long horizons. 10 different stocks is plenty diverse for my taste. In my experience, for every company that goes to zero (bankrupt), you will have one or two that double in a couple of yrs, so who cares. I know ETFs are super popular here, but imho not the best play in town.
#111 bram on 09.10.16 at 12:26 pm
#97 Decisions, decisions on 09.10.16 at 11:27 am
Is this “guy” connected enough to know something or just an outright lunatic?
Ha ha!
Ron Paul is a certified tin-foil wearing crack-pot.
He will tell you the craziest sh*t, including “AIDS was engineered by US government.” and “WTC bombing was done by Mossad.”
That kinda loony, and a racist, homophobe and anti-semite to boot!
Ignore
—–
I would like to, but whatever he claims in that particular conversation, that happened in the past – all checks out.
He is talking about how governments, including the US government, in unmanageable debt put their hands on people’s savings, investments, pensions. All his examples have checked out.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/out-of-the-shadows/article31802994/
………reposting….not to be missed……what have we all been saying for years regarding real estate practices in YVR……..how many ways can you spell s.p.e.c.u.l.a.t.i.o.n. – who needs to build new casinos – we live in one in this part of Canada……
Garth, really enjoy your blog. I think you are very right that FOMO has played a significant role in TO and Van’s RE market. However, I really don’t think you have the data required to confidently speak on the topic of the Chinese impact. The main reason being that our government has made no effort to investigate the flow of funds from China. The government to this point has no desire to do so and still doesn’t. They are only starting to lift the covers on this so called “touchy” subject because of pressure from the public.
The odds of the Fed raising rates in 11 days from now rocketed higher to 38% – up a huge 16% from Wednesday.
frankly I don’t find the odds that convincing but I have a theory: if the US raises rates then there will be a tremendous movement of capital into the US dollar. In effect it will become the only currency in the world.
something is definitely up
worse-case scenario is the US Fed raises interests rates which cuts the Canadian housing market off at the knees.
Maclean’s Magazine:
The reason Canada has managed to avoid the worst of Trump-like disaffection among male workers, according to Kristelle Audet, a senior economist at the Conference Board, lies in the resiliency of the Canadian construction industry, and in particular the housing market, which has provided a steady source of employment.
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/donald-trump-and-his-appeal-to-angry-unemployed-men/
#127 Saraya on 09.10.16 at 6:53 pm
Garth, really enjoy your blog. I think you are very right that FOMO has played a significant role in TO and Van’s RE market. However, I really don’t think you have the data required to confidently speak on the topic of the Chinese impact. The main reason being that our government has made no effort to investigate the flow of funds from China. The government to this point has no desire to do so and still doesn’t. They are only starting to lift the covers on this so called “touchy” subject because of pressure from the public.
Agree. Spent 3 mos in Yaletown this past spring where several sources sang from the same song sheet, that: “the flow of funds” from China is considered better parked in Canadian R/E versus an uncertain China-regime-policies-changes environment. Hence “why”. But to follow HOW the money leaves there, journeys where, and arrives here, would be a task for CSIS.
Wake me up when the Secular Bond Bear Market Starts.
more BC nefarious offshore wheeling and dealing…when read in conjunction with kathy tomlinson’s latest expose, watch your blood pressure rise at our useless ‘glorious leaders’ inactions.
”Mysterious wheeler-dealer is at centre of a web of B.C. real estate deals”
http://theprovince.com/business/real-estate/mysterious-wheeler-dealer-is-at-centre-of-a-web-of-b-c-real-estate-deals