Big day tomorrow. Not, not because it’s the start of the last long weekend of the summer and you need to get serious again, but because of data. Lotsa data.
First up will be the monthly jobs report. It’s called the ‘non-farm payrolls’, and this one will be exciting. No, really. Economists and traders everywhere will hardly sleep a wink with visions of labour participation rates and headline jobless numbers in their little noggins. This survey got real after Fed boss Janet Yellen said last week ‘the case is strengthening’ for the next US rate increase, which everyone thought was off the table after Brexit. No more. It’s coming.
So the guessing is how many new jobs it will take to convince her to pull the trigger in September as opposed to after the comical US election in November. The magic number (depending on who you believe) will be between 180,000 and 250,000. Much below the first, and rates pop in December. Above the second, and they go on Wednesday September 21st. (Update, Friday 8:30 am EDT: Jobs report clocks in at 151,000.)
Given the fact the Fed’s two main targets have largely been met – unemployment below 5% and inflation at 2% – there’s not much of an argument left for keeping rates in the ditch. But, as usual, there’s wide disagreement on when the punch will come. What is clear from visiting the steerage section of this blog, or talking to any Millennial, is that most people think the cost of money will never rise. Good luck with that.
Also on Friday we should get the latest trauma report from the Vancouver Real Estate Board’s Triage Unit. Sales are a disaster. But will prices follow? If so, how quickly? Should puffed-up YVR property barons have bailed when this pathetic blog issued its ‘get-out-now’ final warning during the first few days of July?
Well, housing analyst Ross Kay asserts boldly, “Vancouver home prices have now retreated back to June 2015 levels in the last 45 days.
“Your previous term Frankenumber,” he says to me, “will best describe ‘Benchmark Prices’ which tomorrow will be announced to have increased yr/yr at the same time home prices have crashed. The spin will be fun to watch.”
You bet. Here’s what we know (or have heard) so far:
In Burnaby sales last month declined by just over 80%, while the number of price reductions ballooned by 1,600%. No, that is not a typo.
In Richmond, the number of houses trading in August was also down 80%, and 68% lower than the average of the past five years. Price reductions increased by 2,900% (this is getting ridiculous).
In East Van, where all the poor people live, sales toppled 69% and the price reduction increase was as bizarre as in Richmond and Burnaby. Meanwhile in the west end of YVR, deals have fallen almost 76% and the price reduction increase is irrelevant, because last year there were none, and this year three dozen.
As for prices, below is the latest snapshot from aggregator site Zolo.ca. You can 100% bet that nothing remotely like this will be in the real estate board’s official report. But a 40-year chart showing VYR house prices are ballistic will be. Plus, as Kay surmises, a Frankenumber showing the market is ‘balanced’ and ‘stable.’
Yup, just like the SpaceX rocket loaded with the new Facebook satellite yesterday – before it turned into a smoky hole on the launch pad.
Local Van realtor (& blogger) Larry Yatkowsky calls the current situation “chaos.” He writes:
In July 2016 the average price for a Vancouver detached was recorded at $1,764,682. In less than a month (post Tax proclamation), the average price gain over the year of approximately $300,000 has been wiped out. August 2016`s average price for a detached home flat lined at $1,470,265 to settle below August 2015`s average price of $1,474,475.
While that price drop is worrisome more critical is that the number of sales has tanked to 44% below August 2015. Price is one thing but when there are no sales you don’t have a market. A certainty rests in this dramatic lack of sales. Should it continue future market predictions become more tenuous than ever. More curious will be the evolution that is about to take place. What will be the result from the multiplier effect of this drop in price and sales?
The chaos created by our government fiddle playing will I suspect, continue for the next months ahead. At some point it may become clear that elements beyond the currently perceived influence of foreign buyers could have played a greater part in determining the market place.
And let’s not forget the poor cowboys. Condo prices in Calgary and now down more than 7% from last year, and back at 2013 levels. After factoring in closing costs and commission upon selling, we’re closer to 2010. And no bottom yet. The inventory of condo listings is near a record high, promising more declines to come. At the same time, owners of detached homes have been wary to list, since buyers are scarce – and the price of oil has been grinding higher (sort of).
So far, no sign Chinese dudes turned off by Van’s 15% head tax have decided to flock to Cowtown, as local realtors warned. Like that was ever going to happen. The FOMO gig is up. Everywhere.
144 comments ↓
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/number-of-home-sales-fall-in-metro-vancouver-after-tax-1.3744086
“The days of when an average family with a $50,000 income could buy a detached home in Vancouver are never going to be seen again.”
NEVER!
First!
It’d be interesting to see the median house price in addition to the mean. Of course, good luck finding it. REBGV uses HPI exclusively it seem (at least from a quick glance at their stats release for July).
“In Burnaby sales last month declined by just over 80%, while the number of price reductions ballooned by 1,600%. No, that is not a typo.”
Absolutely. It is a Titanic type disaster in Burnaby right now. SFH values declining by almost $1,000/day.
So I wrote a post before about Donald Trump’s Doctor.
I forgot to mention about his other patient ,America.
He said that she had great hindsight a good heart and slightly damaged lungs due to too much time in the coal industry.
I tried to ask him about Trump after that but all he would reply was”America has a great ass”…
M42BC
The Revolution is coming to America ? It’s plausible.
http://www.naturalnews.com/055146_social_chaos_election_results_popular_revolt.html#ixzz4IvPoY77C
SALES OF DETACHED HOMES TANK FROM APRIL LEVELS ACROSS GREATER VICTORIA
42% fewer homes sold in August than in April, according to the Victoria R/E board’s August stats release.
Last year, only 13% fewer homes sold in August compared to April. This 13% drop likely represents a number not atypical of the area’s decline in sales over this period of time.
This year’s 42% drop was huge.
Also, the drop in sales (July to August) this year was higher than in 2015.
SALES OF DETACHED HOMES IN AUGUST AVERAGE FOR VICTORIA
412 detached homes sold last month, slightly more than in August 2007 (399).
It turns out that 2007 was an average year for detached house sales in Greater Victoria (after adjusting for population growth to make comparisons to other years fair).
That puts August 2016’s detached home sales total at almost exactly average for Victoria, or below average if you understand housing markets well enough to know that it’s unfair to compare sales in 2016 to 9 years ago when mortgage rates were much higher and not highly stimulative as they are today.
ALARMING
When sales fall that much over a 4 month period of time it means that buyers have backed off – in big numbers.
Anyone who knows anything about real estate markets knows that this is a signal that house prices have likely either begun to fall or will begin falling shortly.
With a housing bubble the size of Victoria’s and the certainty of a major, multi-year price decline ahead, this likely spells troubled financial years ahead for many who recently took on mortgages.
Market conditions (supply/demand) are always temporary. A seller’s market can turn into a buyer’s market within a few short months as we’ve seen happen in Victoria’s recent past. Don’t expect today’s relatively low inventory to be around for much longer.
As always, I won’t pretend to be able to predict the exact peak of Victoria’s market. However, I’ll say this again – prices will begin falling again in Victoria and that could happen at any time.
I wouldn’t read too much into these numbers since they are averages and the sales volume was low… but hmmm…
http://www.yattermatters.com/2016/09/government-fiddle-burns-vancouver-real-estate/
Here is exactly what will happen. The number will come in just around the expected 180,000 new maids and bartenders, then the traders all come back next week and look at the real data and send the market into a frenzy for 2 months, Fed goes back to hand sitting for another year.
You want it to happen, but it probably wont.
Don’t set yourself up for another Brexit and say it’ll never happen.
While I believe the falling sales stats, that graph showing the ‘Average Sold Price’ plummeting is misleading.
Looking a bit deeper into the Zolo stats, it is easy to see that high end properties sold very little, while cheaper condo sales stayed flat or even increased.
So yes, of course the Avg Selling Price is lower. The sales mix drastically changed in August.
Ten Insane Things We Believe On Wall Street
To outsiders, Wall Street is a manic, dangerous and ridiculous republic unto itself – a sort of bizarro world where nothing adds up and common sense is virtually inapplicable. Consider the following insane things that we believe on Wall Street, that make no sense whatsoever in the real world:
1. Falling gas and home heating prices are a bad thing
2. Layoffs are great news, the more the better
3. Billionaires from Greenwich, CT can understand the customers of JC Penney, Olive Garden, K-Mart and Sears
4. A company is plagued by the fact that it holds over $100 billion in cash
5. Some companies have to earn a specific profit – to the penny – every quarter but others shouldn’t dare even think about profits
6. Wars, weather, fashion trends and elections can be reliably predicted
7. It’s reasonable for the value of a business to fluctuate by 5 to 10 percent within every eight hour period
8. It’s possible to guess the amount of people who will get or lose a job each month in a nation of 300 million
9. The person who leads a company is worth 400 times more than the average person who works there
10. A company selling 10 million cars a year is worth $50 billion, but another company selling 40,000 cars a year is worth $30 billion because its growing faster
http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/08/29/ten-insane-things-we-believe-on-wall-street-2/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
I chuckle when people get the government intervention they want.
You can almost count to 10 before realisation of the horrific mistake occurs.
When will Vancouver (BC) start giving tax breaks to attract more Asians to prop up the housing market?
“The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.”
– David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, August 2005
Not to worry, Johnny, you are in very good company in regards to real estate board statistics and interpretation.
Anyone interested in Vancouver real estate should look at this.
Also Mrs Flop just told me that there are proposals underway to develop the area at Fraser and Marine where the Super 8 is and flatten it and build condos there…
M42BC
http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/rcmp-fairmont-lands-vancouver-redevelopment
No rate hike coming, the jobs number doesn’t matter, and never did.
It baffles me that adults can hear the Fed’s nonsense time after time and actually believe it. Garth had at least six rate hikes predicted by this point about two years ago, and we got ONE, “liftoff” he called it.
But then China misbehaved and the Brits voted to destroy humanity with Brexit, so the Fed had to change plans. Poor Fed, sitting on this red hot economy with their hands tied because of everyone else’s problems.
Anybody still buying this?
The trouble I
s Garth dismisses anyone who refuses to drink the “US recovery” koolaid as someone who wants low interest rates. I don’t. They should never have been this low, and should be raised. But that will expose this phony narrative so the Fed keeps coming up with excuses.
At some point, the bond market will take away their power, until then interest rates will remain at historic lows.
The Fed’s next move is a cut. The explanations here will be like Christmas morning.
FOMO has been replaced by LOGO. Last Opportunity to Get Out.
#7 Victoria Real Estate Update
As always, I won’t pretend to be able to predict the exact peak of Victoria’s market.
———-
Hmm.. well you said (and I quote):
“As I’ve said many times, there is a 100% chance that current market conditions (supply/demand) will change and we could have conditions favouring buyers within a matter of months. ”
Of course you’ve said things along those lines for the past year or more. You did hedge the statement with “could”, but still, it’s a prediction in timing.
“This year’s 42% drop was huge.”
Matched by an equivalent drop in listings (hence sales to new listings sticking in the same range). Inventory is all all time lows (lowest August). That’s why there are less sales. I’m surprised there are many sales are they are considering the lack of selection and quality of the listings (or rather lack thereof).
Wake me up when S/L drops and inventory hits at least 6 months.
Oh.. happen to notice 4675 Lochwood Cres? A few people I know went to the open house. Looked ok in the listing (potential but in need of updating). In reality it had one less bedroom than listed (realistically.. some weird garage loft thing) and dark as a dungeon (due to trees you can’t cut down). Not uncommon for Broadmead, but it sounded darker than I could stand.
Ask was 700K, pending at 860K. Went pending on Tuesday. No way I’d spend that much on that place, but someone saw value in it.. I guess.
Point being, stuff is still crazy in Victoria. Will it change? Yes. At some point. But the tides haven’t turned yet.
So you keep talking about your “deep correction” that Victoria is will inevitably have. Give us a number. What will you be able to buy a house for once we have this deep correction?
And the cranes keeping busy on all the highrise condo construction sites all over “Van-delusia”. Developers rapped by bank mortgage commitments to keep building even when they know …deep down…..its over.
Cant wait for the increase in unexplained house/business fires….a la mid 1980’s in Van-delusia
I’m noticing more and more newer cars in the Safeway/Mall parking lots with homemade 4 Sale signs on them. Literally signs of the times.
And todays local fishwrapper(the Province) front page story. 500,000 BC people are counting on the foodbank to get them through the month without going hungry…
And the the current Premier is bragging about our economy in the windup to a Spring election……
One wonders who will crack first…the homeowners/voters screaming for the 15% “headtax” to be rescinded or the Preimer who (mere months ago said it wasnt needed) implemented it because a month ago a majority of voters were screaming it was needed..
Glad im renting.
Hahahahaaaaaa….
Ya Baby! Where there’s smoke…..
https://youtu.be/A_sY2rjxq6M
Delivery service is going downhill as there is no good news anymore in my sordid life. I sent a computer message with my order which takes 20 minutes. So three hours later make a phone call to be told he is at the variety store now. Guy I know shows up quickly and said did you get my message some three hours ago. Nope, the new guy went on a bender but don’t say a word as I just got the order about 15 minutes ago. I bet the other guy owns a condo.
I am going to have some bumper stickers made. “Please God let there be Another Real Estate Boom. I promise not to piss all the money away this time”
People are dumb. There are thousands of wannabe landlords (maybe not so wannabe now) who just don’t understand what has and is happening. I saw an ad for a 2 bedroom apartment today. It’s in the basement, no washer/dryer, and in an old building. Ok area and the site is clean enough well taken care of like many other properties. Anyway, they want $1200 rent and the tenant pays condos fees of $350 per month in ADDITION to the rent!! Good God. Highest vacancy rate in calgary history and people still don’t get it because they have the BEST condo /apartment on the planet.
That rent should be no more than $900 all in. So it sits empty, costing money in carrying costs, mortgage payments etc. every single month. But I suspect many of these geniuses can’t rent for lower since they probably couldn’t cover mortgage costs let alone condo fees.
Thousands like this now sit empty while they all try to rent them…to nobody. This will get a lot worse not better. Could take years to work itself out even before interest rates increase if they do. It’s a mess. A real mess. But i have zero sympathy for any of them. I can’t praise stupidity.
People have been caught from bad decisions not the price Of oil. Ive seen people in past who only talked about how much credit they could get like it was a badge of honor. Never talk about savings, investing, or…..the horror….actual income. People think credit is an extension of income now. I’m truly afraid in this society that rewards mediocrity, debtors, and spenders, that governments will implement policy to absolve them while savers and the responsible…you know…those who live within their means….not expecting to be saved by government will be discarded. Business as usual. Banks wouldn’t exist without savers. It’s a fooked up country and society where bad behavior is rewarded and those who do well are punished.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-01/if-you-own-home-palo-alto-ca-sell-it-now
The same ideas can be used for Vancouver.
September 1, 2016: A pivotal day to be sure. The evidence of tanking RE markets is undeniably here.
As a sweet bonus, tonight’s picture is pure genius. I believe it supplants the “No Saviour” post for the best ever to appear here:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/10/page/12/
I wish I’d taken it, and I’m not even a photographer.
The yield curve is getting awfully flat. Employment in skilled fields is decelerating rapidly (ie: massive firings in Silicon Valley). The auto sector appears to be on the precipice of a crash as they’ve tapped out even the subprime auto borrowers. High end housing prices falling. The energy sector’s insolvency isn’t being cured with slightly higher oil prices which aren’t even staying firm. And the Trump train is gaining steam rapidly (to the point that Hillary is now attacking Alex Jones, which is about as bizarre as it gets!).
Not a chance of a Fed hike until at least next year. And probably not even then.
Bank of Canada is probably “on hold” next week despite the horrifically bad GDP number reported which was not, despite the claims, a statistical anomaly.
The real question is does Obama make it out of his 2 terms unscathed, or will the markets hold it together long enough to send him off into the sunset?
May the coming months reveal who has been swimming naked. YEY!
Did Hillary set up Trump for a fall? President Pena Nieto has told Mexico that Trump lied about the wall at their recent meeting. He told Trump there is no way Mexico will pay for any wall which contradicts Trump’s statement completely.
# 19 crowded…
Re accelerants.
2 storey house under construction in Mount Pleasant in Cowtown. Arson squad on the hunt. Video of a dude in dark clothes on a bicycle leaving the area and returning later (perhaps inspecting handiwork???).
Calgary Herald
So out of all of the provinces, taking all taxes into consideration,which is the best to do business in if your company has a net income of less than $750,000/year?
A friend just bought a big SFH in central Toronto (first time buyer). He was ecstatic because there was no bidding war and he had the good fortune to pay list price. I did direct him to this blog but sadly to no avail.
Cook’s surprise U-turn on repatriating foreign profits comes days after Apple was accused by competition regulators at the European commission of receiving state aid from Ireland.
flip flop and fly
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/01/apple-boss-tim-cook-repatriate-billions-to-us-treasury-next-year
DELETED
imf chief :Further ahead, the outlook will be affected by the degree to which the future relationship with the European Union can preserve the benefits of economic integration and trade.”
….Bank equities remain under pressure, however, with particular tensions surrounding Italian banks.”
““The days of when an average family with a $50,000 income could buy a detached home in Vancouver are never going to be seen again.””
In the long run, the average family will be able to buy the average home. You’re right, that might not mean a SFH at this point, but as mean reversion and overshoot to the downside occurs, people with the median income may very well be able to, unencumbered by legacy debt, purchase above median housing.
I am not sure what is happening in Calgary. A good friend of mind placed his house up for sale and it sold withing two days, $100 over asking, yes, one hundred bucks, to whom, an Asian couple from Hong Kong, I not saying anything but considering what Alberta is going through, prices are not dropping as they should be, hmmmm! Charts will tell you what you want to see and hear, the reality is different.
Hey, if the U.S. decides to raise rates, then all the better. Sooner, rather then later, we can finally find out what their economy is really about. Cheers!
I chuckle when people chuckle. Here in leafy Brookswood the market seems to be oblivious to the correction west of us in the big city (Hongcouver). FOR SALE signs are sprouting up like weeds, but those pesky SOLD signs get plastered over them in a few weeks, not as quick as before but pretty much slow and steady. I would not be worried about selling my house in this market at the moment. The delusion is intact.
Homes never went up 30%. That’s what the general public don’t understand. A bunch of high end homes sold at high prices to C dudes and that skewed everyone to believe their homes had gone up in price by some astronomical amount. That said, we sold to a greater fool a few weeks back whom I would support suing some main stream media and real estate for mis presenting stats to fool the public. It’s criminal that they get away with masturbating stats the way they do. Let’s see what erupts tomorrow.
#17 LOGO should be Lost Opportunity to Get Out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble#/media/File:Nasdaq_Composite_dot-com_bubble.svg
prices going back to 800k??!!
Oil and gas companies go broke and Alberta taxpayers pick up the tab. I am feeling cantankerous.
Calgary Herald – “Alberta Landowners…”
It would only take the jailing of one director or executive to lead to some relief for taxpayers. “Subsidies”.
To those saying this is due to sales mix, of course it is. That’s why median prices (if available) would be more telling. But because the RE boards like to pump up real estate, that is never released. Why when “average” prices go up up and away, they continue to use this metric but not median prices? When it’s going down, why don’t want to use this metric all of a sudden? Or they blame “sales mix”. So higher end properties aren’t selling. That’s because there are no buyers. So are the buyers going to come back? No, because there are some capital controls going on in China. High end RE in SF, NYC, London, etc. (where chinese like to buy) had already started to fall way back several months ago. The tax here just compounded things and made things worse. Either way this does not look good. And if the jobs report tomorrow is a killer, prepare for a september hike, which will either force the BoC’s hand, or prepare to have the dollar plummet. Either way, Canada is screwed.
It’s time to call the price samurai to Hamilton Ontario. It makes me sick how realtors and flippers add tens of thousands to house prices because there is a greater fool lurking on MLS who is willing to overpay.
Evening more sickening is how Hamiltonians are used to the price of their house going up. The people I’ve spoken to about real estate claim it will continue to go up. “Can you imagine what my house will be worth in a few years?!!” Then, I ask them who will be buying their million dollar home in a few years when wages aren’t going up and interest rates are. I sometimes feel a little shameful for being the rain on their parade.
Ok so I know this is a dumb question….but I would like some feedback.
What is the best way to hold US Equities? Right now I have VUN in my RRSP. Does it make any sense to buy SPY or IWM? I don’t have any USD in my account. :( sadly
Garth, I know the Vancouver market is more juicy but what about some analysis of the GTA market where things are much more complicated…
#38 Top Bomb on 09.01.16 at 8:08 pm
Homes never went up 30%. That’s what the general public don’t understand. A bunch of high end homes sold at high prices to C dudes and that skewed everyone to believe their homes had gone up in price by some astronomical amount. That said, we sold to a greater fool a few weeks back whom I would support suing some main stream media and real estate for mis presenting stats to fool the public. It’s criminal that they get away with masturbating stats the way they do. Let’s see what erupts tomorrow.
///////////////////////////
So what your saying is the realtors should throw the towel in?
And some KY gel…
M42BC
I just know there will be those selling their condo and have little time to look for a high rise apartment. I am indebted to the apartment building cartel to enlighten me with a royal flush. In a few days will disclose a street off Yonge near the subway that is out of this world with class and the rents won’t break the bank. Its all leafy with buildings to the left and right each having a park setting, tennis courts, and swimming pools. Not to miss a laneway which backdoors the subway station. One walks down this street with a huge surprise, but turn left and make another left and backdoor a shopping center. This entire area is dog friendly and the views from the apartment buildings are great. Goods and services are at hand as will want you to walk on Yonge. There is a store for everything and if its not there it will be in three days because the net has 100,000 items to look over. Its a self-efficient neighborhood with lots of trees but can be at Bloor in good time or Union Station.
I must be one of the crazy ones. Just bought a house (yet to be built) is cowtown.
The thing is, builders have been more responsive than owners trying to sell their homes. Behind the posted starting prices are a lot of discounts and incentives: lot discount, ‘free’ allowance to design centre, included upgrades that were not before, etc.
A house ‘starting at’ $600k will end up costing you $580k with all the upgrades you want…
It turns out that I paid 22% less than I would have paid for the same house on a similar lot. Sounded good to me, so I jumped in. Time will tell if i’m indeed crazy, but houses in YYC are a lot more affordable these days.
@Cory
I don’t understand why all this frenzy about rentals is all about. Just because some prof at UBC said rents are “set to skyrocket 20%” everyone is freaking out. I see signs advertising rentals all the time in my neighborhood. Certainly if there is are bidding wars for rentals, it’s not obvious.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/balance-of-trade
As you can see, last Jan when USDCAD was a 1.45 The trade gap was closing, then Poloz Sat on his ass. for the last year hoping Yellen would do the dirty work for him.
Now, what’s got to be on his mind, will the bloody fed finally spike. If they don’t he will cut. No choice.
Garth:
If you allow me one more succinct rant, I promise I will cease my jaw wagging and turn to America’s Pastime (Cubs and Giants).
The Alberta Energy Regulator has a Mine Financial Security Program to ensure that the environmental liabilities of oil sands and coal developments do not hit my wallet and those of my two kids and prospective dozen or so grandkids. What a howler.
Read the pap on the regulator’s website. If memory serves, there is about $2 billion in the fund and the potential liabilities are well north of $billion.
A life in Nova Scotia is starting to appear attractive. No wonder Murray Edwards moved to Britain.
3 – 3 top of second inning.
They day you finally become a write, you don’t engage when company visits. You study them, waiting to get some inspiration. Looking for flaws and specialties.
It’s sort of shit way to be. But once bitten by the bug, no going back to a normal life.
It’s imposable.
I hate all you bastards that got me on to Hunters S Thomson, Charles Bukowski. Even the code smith genus side of the brain has been taken over by this devil.
I’m now a full-time fiction writer.
This won’t end well.
#47 Context on 09.01.16 at 8:47 pm
You do know you are in my book, I give you a lift to Mexico in the plasma flier after you gave me the USB with all the secret Alien Intelligence. Repatriated with your senorita in lake Chapa.
I called you Mark Krunt.
VREU you kill me.
Fewer sales in August than April? No way? It’s like everyone is on vacation.
I know your message and on the whole it’s right but you pick the most retarded proof.
You’re like a crazy homeless person yelling that the glove is warming but because of microwave ovens.
So what happens to interest rates and the US economy if Trump gets elected and decides to kick out 11 million Mexicans and renegotiate trade deals?
I know you will say it won’t happen, but how do you explain George Dubya, Rob Ford, and Brexit?
#44 Innumeracy Chick No More
—–
You want to hold USD or usd equities?
If you just want to hold USD then buy DLR.
If you want to convert sell is as usd, then you need to have you brokerage journal your shares to the us listed DLR.U then sell… Assuming your account allows holding both currencies.
Re: My Comment on The Taxman Cometh in Athabasca
Should have read “… north of $20 billion”.
The “polluter pay” principle is alive and well here. The shareholders are the payees.
4 – 3 Giants. Top 4th.
Out
#50 Smoking Man on 09.01.16 at 8:50 pm
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/balance-of-trade
As you can see, last Jan when USDCAD was a 1.45 The trade gap was closing, then Poloz Sat on his ass. for the last year hoping Yellen would do the dirty work for him.
——————————————————-
The same website predicts the US will raise interest rates by .25% by 4thQ & Canada will reduce interest rates by .25% by 4th Q.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/forecast
#58 RayofLight on 09.01.16 at 9:28 pm
#50 Smoking Man on 09.01.16 at 8:50 pm
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/balance-of-trade
As you can see, last Jan when USDCAD was a 1.45 The trade gap was closing, then Poloz Sat on his ass. for the last year hoping Yellen would do the dirty work for him.
——————————————————-
The same website predicts the US will raise interest rates by .25% by 4thQ & Canada will reduce interest rates by .25% by 4th Q.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/forecast
…….
Lots of Smoking Man fans out there.. The writers of that website come here to read 98% perfect predictions by me.
It’s all in the archives. So I fk up on yellow pages and Bombardier. I was really drunk that night.
#59 Smoking Man:- I sold my Bombardier at $23.00 and skipped the yellow pages as technology would eventually make the books obsolete. People were afraid of Bell at $24.00 with no dividend and went all in.
Still lots of rentals available:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html#Rentals
Everyone wants income.
Cheap sensationalism.
I believe I read somewhere that Vancouver West went from zero price reductions aug last year, to X price reductions last month.
So that is an infinitely large increase, yoy.
The price reductions in Vancouver West were up more than 10000000000000000000%
See… I can do it to, sensationalizing, and guess what: no typo, and technically correct. Yet meaningless.
So yeah, unlike last year, properties are now discounted.
The market has indeed changed.
But this does not warrant throwing around silly percentages.
OK! So what are investors doing to benefit? Obviously a balanced acct with 40 plus percent in bonds is going to take a hit as rates rise. Prefs are up so far on the anticipation, CPD is already up 7.5 from it’s lows. Equities are being accumulated on news that bottoms are firming. I’ all in on Maple. Issues like CGI Group have gone from $15 to $65 like a rocket. This “IS” the stock puckers wet dream. So many others with the same profile, but a ‘certain someone’ hates real success.
America cannot even service its debts with normalized rates let alone touch the principle, which apparently it doesn’t need to these days???
The Fed will not raise rates by choice. Only if they want to kill the goose that laid the golden egg. Maybe they do???
Either way these crazy criminal central bankers have set the whole system up to fail. Perhaps some have done it by choice, and maybe some just made panic decisions only after realizing they have painted themselves into a corner. Either way something is going to give.
How some very smart people cannot see and understand the very basics behind the whole political banking cabal at this point in the game is beyond me???
If you believe in normalized rates and free markets…
You’re lying to yourself
I took Garth’s advice from yesterday’s post and prepared for a potentially volatile September. (BTW, the Globe and Mail used the same return by month chart in to-days paper, so I guess they read this blob also). We are going on a trip and I will not have access to a good internet for about 6 weeks. I didn’t want to worry about the portfolio. I sold about 1/3 of the $US holdings and put it into a low volatility US ETF (USMV.N). The thing is, if you look at its performance over the past 3 yrs., it’s been averaging about 18% /yr. It has low volatility and trades about 3M+ shares /day, so it is extremely liquid. Something to think about.
Blog,I meant Blog
Cash on the buds. A boy named sue.
Heaven
Cash
https://youtu.be/eJlN9jdQFSc
A Vancouver realtor I know just posted on Facebook..
“Anyone thinking about buying a rental property in Vancouver? Watch this video from tonight’s news about the demand for rentals! You could help solve a housing crisis AND grow your wealth! That’s a win-win”
She is asking her friends to commit retirement suicide.
#36 acdel on 09.01.16 at 8:03 pm
I am not sure what is happening in Calgary. A good friend of mind placed his house up for sale and it sold withing two days, $100 over asking, yes, one hundred bucks, to whom, an Asian couple from Hong Kong, I not saying anything but considering what Alberta is going through, prices are not dropping as they should be, hmmmm! Charts will tell you what you want to see and hear, the reality is different.
Hey, if the U.S. decides to raise rates, then all the better. Sooner, rather then later, we can finally find out what their economy is really about. Cheers!
———————————————————-
Watch the movie the Big Short.
It took some time for those shorting RE to finally reap the benefits – there was a period where prices where disconnected from fundamentals, but eventually the inevitable came!
The laws of economics are Gods, they always come to pass.
I am told in the old days on the VSE they hired guys to ride up and down elevators and tell each other about some mining company that had a huge strike. We’re so past that now. Its not like someone would hire folks to show up at Open Houses driving high dollar SUVs. Naw, not possible.
The secret of long branch
https://youtu.be/xvaEJzoaYZk
Relax, YVR speculators.
Don’t think of it as a ‘market correction’, but rather a ‘return to consumer affordability’.
You’ll feel much better.
Lying with Statistics hurts good people and severely affects their lives.
It is a clear form of theft.
Just look at Vancouver’s miserable basement dwellers.
Lying with statistics is a fine art! Our Government does it all the time.
Who really believes the employment and inflation numbers.
The only use they serve is whether or not these numbers go up or down and by how much.
The numbers themselves are massively manipulated.
But if we ask our government to jail Real estate liars who publish lies with their statistics, The gov. will say to themselves “It is a bit hypocritical to point the finger at them,maybe we will go to jail next!”
#62 Bram on 09.01.16 at 10:18 pm
Cheap sensationalism.
———————————————————-
I can see Garths point though. Someone has to sensationalize the opposing view.
Look at the crass sensationalism and outright lies the realty cabal has dispensed over the years to keep the FOMO going.
Why Trump wins
https://youtu.be/ENheB3d8vQc
I’ll never bet that Yellen will see her shadow and raise rates. Why?
Market into the doldrums of late summer, wake me when its over. ZZZZZ…
A good day, got the 3 tooth bridge repaired, the contractor’s coming next week to install the new patio door, The car should have it’s work done by tomorrow, & I will begin renewal on the early 70’s Zenith console stereo I bought this summer.
(Everybody needs a dumb hobby)
M64WI
Keerist. I should prepare draft comments, send them to my editor and dwell on them before hitting Submit. Yes, the “polluter pay” principle in Alberta means the payee is the shareholder. But, I forgot to add that the payor is the taxpayer. Google Giant Mine. Every Canadian is contributing to an annual payment of ~ $5 million in perpetuity to keep the toxins in that mine so it does not kill the the McKenzie River.
Where is Peggy Witte and her millions anyway?
I need some environmental mood swing counselling STAT.
A wasted buz. No ear bufs
#54 Frank,
You’re like a crazy homeless person
Yelling that
The glove is warming.
Hope ‘glove’ was a typo. Otherwise that is a crazy haiku about being crazy! LOL. You meant ‘globe,’ probably? That’s funny!
The last time the FED said interest rates would rise the jobs print about a week later was the lowest of the entire year. But the FED also has to lie and make the jobs report progressively higher with each monthly jobs print up to and including the jobs print for October (3 business days after that print will be the time to back the truck up and borrow to the hilt to buy every available bar of physical gold in existence). Both can’t be true and we’ll see which one is true tomorrow. If oil prices mean anything the jobs print will be under 100,000 for August.
Pulled a Smoking Man last night…
The beer was flowing at the pub.. and capped it off with a couple black russians…
I’ve had my once per 6 month booze up.
World of pain this morning..
World.
Of.
Pain.
Smokey I don’t know how it’s possible to do this every day. I’m not even touching alcohol for a good month.
For the record, I was the one who put Smokey on to Bukowski…
– Steve
Awesome !! Now I can afford that tear down moldy piece of crap that only costs 1.1 million now !!
Real estate in Canada is like a religion
The belief that
1) house prices can only go up (can’t lose additute)
2) interest will stay low
3) foreigner are buying up our land
4) Population can only grow
Well what happens when evidence that there is no god. Like religion your complete mindset will go unbalance and a sense of hopelessness.
So if yellen raises interest rates bam.. The cost of money theory is shattered
So if housing prices start to fall, and continue to fall then what . Like stocks you hang on until you realize bam that theory is crap and begin to panic
The foreigner theory didn’t have to be proven, the 15 percent basically shut the door and made it a reality.
Population always growing, appear that way but when people become poor they tend to stay closer together as a family unit. Whereas several generation of a family will live under the same roof. But note we have a situation with the boomers getting old and will be forced out of the workforce in 10 years. when they hit an average age of 70. Afterall who wants to employ a geezer when there are so many young people who can fill in.
The past 16-odd years have been an enormous revelation for me. I never imagined the extent to which people are so incredibly intellectually and emotionally malleable. Grown up people. Educated people, most of them. Titillated by bricks and mortar in extremis. Embarrassing, really. Rich viable loam for making profit.
The carrot (housing), the pimp (realtards) and the pied piper (msm), all aided and abetted by the Wiz (gubbmint) and cb (mmmm….let’s see, horses a$$es) have harvested mightily from that loam.
Canada has moved so far past the sunny days of dollar parity and the Canuck dollarette, aka “the loonie” is now circling the bowl.
By the by, how can anyone respect a unit of currency baptized the “loonie”? Really, the loonie…and the “toonie”….all garnished with pretty pictures….reminds me of the fancy and embellished but nearly worthless foreign currencies I used to collect as a kid. Could it be that the fancier a unit of currency gets, the less it’s worth? Perhaps it’s vice-versa.
A dollar in the USA is called a dollar and it looks like it is meant for business.
#23 Cory
“It’s a fooked up country and society where bad behaviour is rewarded and those who do well are punished”
——————————————————————–
Well said.
You can be sure that T2 will punish the savers, investors, and earners, while glorifying the losers – in the name of the “just society” (as his old man called it).
“We need the middle class to feel more confident about its prospects and about its future. We need to cut down on this anxiety that sees some people succeeding and the majority struggling – having to make choices between paying for their kids’ education or saving for their own retirement.” – Justin Trudeau
“Canada has always been there to help people who need it.” – Justin Trudeau
“We’re asking those who have done well to do a little more for the people who need it.” – Justin Trudeau
Get ready to share the wealth, people!
Or start secretly digging that deep hole in your backyard to stash your cash.
Better yet, abandon desire. Let it all go. Free yourself.
#62 Bram on 09.01.16 at 10:18 pm
Cheap sensationalism.
I believe I read somewhere that Vancouver West went from zero price reductions aug last year, to X price reductions last month.
So that is an infinitely large increase, yoy.
The price reductions in Vancouver West were up more than 10000000000000000000%
See… I can do it to, sensationalizing, and guess what: no typo, and technically correct. Yet meaningless.
So yeah, unlike last year, properties are now discounted.
The market has indeed changed.
But this does not warrant throwing around silly percentages.
—-
Spot on…
Maybe a residue from Garth’s Sun(ny) days, when stats had to compete with the sunshine girl’s graphs.
When will you read any of this about The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in MSM?
How will you understand Trump’s unexpected rise without it?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/globalsupercourt
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-01/secret-global-court-why-corporate-criminals-corrupt-politicians-desperately-want-tpp
From Zolo.ca the avg. Detached price at $2.6 MM in Aug 2016, barely down from the Feb to May 2016 peak of $2.8 MM and still above Aug 2015 price of $2.4 MM.
You are wrong about sales mix.
I have downloaded all past data from Zolo.ca Vancouver data into Excel and plotted sales mix. Here is the Sales Mix for past months (I can calculate Zolo.ca avg. price using their table price data and sales mix within 5% – they take the avg price for each type of property multiplied by its sales mix weight in % to calculate an overall avg. price – numbers rounded by Excel):
Aug 2016 (Det/Twh/Condo) in % = 24/10/66
July 2016: 24/11/65
Jun 2016: 26/12/63
May 2016: 31/10/59
Feb 2016: 28/10/63
Aug 2015: 28/11/62
Some change in Sales Mix Aug 2015 vs. 2016.
What has changed, as you correctly point out, is that more Condos are being sold at a higher price (e.g., Aug 2015 Avg Sell Price = $640 K, Feb/May 2016 = $716/717 K and Aug 2016 = $801 K) and Townhome prices essentially unchanged.
Still, Aug 2016 Detached at a 24% sales mix carries a lot heavier weight at $2.6 MM than Condos at 62% and $801K.
That can only mean prices are indeed going down. Garth’s Sept data just in, is catastrophic vs. the above data.
Smoking Man:
J. Cash was cool.. but the dude is dead.
Time to listen to some new stuff….
got this goin’ on the buds…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XytFu93Zro
Re: #48 Mike on 09.01.16 at 8:48 pm
You blew it! Going forward in time for real estate worldwide there are no positives except present day low interest rates. The rest are ALL negatives. The biggest negative being the falling birth rate worldwide and as taxes increase and countries go broke the birth rate will fall at an accelerated pace moving forward in time. I’ll be shorting Teck Corporation at the end of this month and buying the shares back at 5 dollars Canadian at the end of January 2017 or the start of February 2017… now does that sound like commodities as well as the price of oil and natural gas are going to go up?
Replace “real estate” with “oil” back then.
Too funny.
Also popular in Calgary in the early 80s: “Last one out, please turn the lights off” in reference to jobs and RE.
Suspect that will be the YVR RE motto, soon enough…
You are v. good at predicting future investment trends, I’ll give you that, but I have to say you suck at predicting future Presidents.
Current Electoral College count, committed, sits at Hillary = 326 and Civilization Ending as We Know It Trump = 176.
That Smoking Man is a landslide.
US Markets have already impounded that reality into stock prices.
The only hope Trump has is for a 9/11 type attack on the USA (by Female, Left-Wing, Mexican Radical Islamists) between now and November and even with that “double snake eyes” dice roll of an event, American’s will still have to ask themselves if they feel safer with Trump or Hillary at the helm.
BTW, enough of the “hurt me music” video urls, I grew in Alberta…I had my fill of that dung kicker music over the decades.
Having said that, I did go to a Johnny Cash/June Carter concert in Calgary…but that was then.
#70 “Watch the movie the Big Short.”
Then track the credit past dues for car loans and RE mortgages just like they did in the movie. Those numbers tell the real story. I suspect that the party in Canada was over many months ago.
Oh, the cultural ignorance of our liberal media. Desperate to find a silver lining to T Ball Trudeau’s failed trip to China, the Globe grabbed onto a story in an off center media about “Justin is handsome”, not realizing that this is a phrase that translates to ‘horsey’ , as horses are gentle slightly stupid animals. Anything to try and keep the sexy in stupid, makes an ass of us all.
T Ball is gloating over bringing a billion in deals, which is 1/100 th of what has already been laundered into Canada according to Chinese officials.
Not quite enough for September, Garth. A few more months to wait.
Farcical come to mind. Judge for yourselves:
http://www.rebgv.org/podcasts/july-2016-market-summary
My Stats Prof was correct, you can lay statistics out on a table and do what you want with them (took his female reference out of the quote…Boomer here that is trying to be PC so as not to offend the Moisters).
BTW, Morrison in serious need of face moisturizer…I’m just saying.
Best buying opp on USD/CAD today.
….
Pension funds trading among themselves to squeeze out return??
“The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) said Thursday that it’s buying a 50% stake in a portfolio of office properties in Toronto and Calgary owned by OMERS for $1.18 billion.
The portfolio of seven buildings covers 4.2-million square feet of downtown office space, including the Richmond-Adelaide Centre in Toronto and the Centennial Place and Eau Claire Tower in Calgary”
Garth using hyperbole to get thru to knuckleheads that have not quite gotten the message about what is happening in YVR RE.
Message clear: down, down and more down…get out if you still can…invest in the markets instead for now and balance, his Rule of 90.
Hey Garth, you can always defer to Onomatopoeia next post…
OMG, I’m turning into a literate Smoking Man, this just after a couple of very, very light Rum and Coke 0’s…
@#65 Ray of Light
“We are going on a trip and I will not have access to a good internet for about 6 weeks.”
********************************************
The dark side of the Moon via the International Space Staion par chance?
http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/luna/esp_luna_46.htm&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjQ_pOG4fDOAhVEyWMKHS17BuYQFgg6MAg&usg=AFQjCNFUOYyFZEx1hhEVsx4CIjZmzmCvKg
Smokey…..what do the Nectonites have to say about Zee Germans building secret bases…….?
And the fake “recovery” continues.
So predictable. The jobs report comes in low enough to take a rate hike off the table, but high enough to say there is still “growth”. So obvious.
Cnbc headline: “futures rise on jobs miss”
Please. We NEED a democrat in office to keep this fake scheme going. Please!!!
MF
Watch the so-called “strong hands” in this market – those who actually own their homes (no mortgage debt) and see this as the totality of their retirement/inheritance plan. Just because there is an absence of buyers does not mean you will not see listings materialise in the spring as former advocates of “Who cares if prices fall 20%, I am still sitting on a 5 bagger” mindset start to rethink in light of how the painful psychological reality of losing feels. If they crack the SHTF. For now, however, there is a recency bias to any data sifting that purports to explain this news as a developing trend: As Ben Graham said, “In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term it is a weighing machine”. We won’t know the extent of this until the For Sale signs appear with the daffodils next spring.
I thought I’d share an interesting snapshot on the history and development of real estate in Vancouver based on the house next door:
built in 1928, 33×88 lot, dead end street, hill rest park area, just a block west of main, near school, park and cummunity centre.
Sold to young women in 1996 for $ 260k, funded by dad,
They renovated and expanded ( added floor, bigger deck, low quality work done by the dad) sold in 2011 for $ 998k, line up of cars all day long, sold in a week.
Couple with 2 year old and pregnant bought it, sold condo, and had help from parents.
They renovated properly on the inside, and sued and won the ex owners, sold for $ 1.28 Mio in 2013, again mayhem of cars on the street, sold in less than a week.
Young couple bought it with 2 little ones, rich parents, entirely parent funded. Typical Vancouver money attitude….
Now for sale again, they want 2 mio. Not a car coming down the road …. Open house this weekend. House has significant issues, leaking cracked foundation, drain tiles were never upgraded, water has nowhere to go….. Just to mention one issue, but inside looks nice…. Staged furniture…. Who is the moron buying this shack? Btw, all owners for the past 20 years were Caucasians .
Cut and paste commentary as access to the Blog is restricted.
From The Fly: 18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
“ 150k jobs were added in the month of August, well short of the 180k forecasted. The numbers were light, but still good. As such, the men of Wall are pricing in a Fed pause.
The biggest jobs gains were found in bars and eateries, with 34k new jobs added, as people drank and stuffed their fat f’ing faces in record numbers–celebrating all of these gains.
Stocks are pointing up. Gold and oil are ripping, obviously. And wanton degeneracy is on the rise. Once again, a well-timed disappointment has provided the Fed with the fodder they need to sit back, do nothing, and watch equity markets do their magic. ”
A September Fed rate hike is now remote – I was expecting better job numbers despite the weak PMI reports. It appears I earned myself a menial day job. “Would you like fries with my guesses?”
Not sure why everyone loves statistics, especially without anaylsis. First at this stage in the housing market people are listing houses for too much cause they are greedy, and when it does not sell the reduce the price. When listed cheaper you get a bidding war.
Meaningless stats.
Eye on the street, I rarely see houses for sale I can go kilometres without seeing a sign, then one went up two days ago, and yep sold in a day above asking.
Are pricies ridiculous yes,
Will they drop, yes when interest rates rise,
But even if Garth is right it will take years to get back to normalized rates, so you have many more years of rising house prices.
Think about it everyone home owner in Vancouver is a millionaire.
#102 MF on 09.02.16 at 9:24 am
And the fake “recovery” continues.
So predictable. The jobs report comes in low enough to take a rate hike off the table, but high enough to say there is still “growth”. So obvious.
Cnbc headline: “futures rise on jobs miss”
Please. We NEED a democrat in office to keep this fake scheme going. Please!!!
MF
……
You disenfranchised rebal. Now Poloz has a big dissision to make.
Plop! None of that data went as expected huh?
#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.02.16 at 9:13 am
@#65 Ray of Light
“We are going on a trip and I will not have access to a good internet for about 6 weeks.”
********************************************
The dark side of the Moon via the International Space Staion par chance?
http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/luna/esp_luna_46.htm&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjQ_pOG4fDOAhVEyWMKHS17BuYQFgg6MAg&usg=AFQjCNFUOYyFZEx1hhEVsx4CIjZmzmCvKg
Smokey…..what do the Nectonites have to say about Zee Germans building secret bases…….?
…….
Until the human race cleans up its act, they are forbidden from from flying beyond the moon.
4 of us down to make sure it doesn’t happen.
We estimate it will be another 500k more years of evolution.
#100
Message clear: down, down and more down…get out if you still can…invest in the markets instead for now and balance, his Rule of 90.
‘down, down and more down’ is wishful/gleeful thinking.
So far, it appears that sales are down sharply in Aug.
Prices may or may not follow.
Logically, they should eventually.
Zolo.ca is such a disaster, don’t go by that.
On Aug 12, the real numbers with hard data will be out http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.asp
Until then, it’s all premature glee about a correction that has been expected for so long.
iven the fact the Fed’s two main targets have largely been met – unemployment below 5% and inflation at 2% – there’s not much of an argument left for keeping rates in the ditch.
I agree.
Everything else around these 2 achieved metrics is just noise
Yawn
Oh yeah, thanks to all my US tenants who deposited rent into my bank account yesterday. You guys are the best!
Mark m “The Fed’s next move is a cut. The explanations here will be like Christmas morning.”
————
Looks like we have a new champ at calling the shots. Even smokey got this one wrong.
Cmon American you ignorant pompous piece of wasted breath yell us again how usa is booming. We are waiting for the excuses.
US exports continue their winning ways
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1181MB
How’s Canada doing?
Comprehensively lost my short bet on the GBP this week. Evreything that could go wrong did:
– GB manufacturing PMI blew everything out of the park
– US PMI sucked
– US jobs report applied the final sucker punch
Pass me my JD…. :(
@#112 Smokey
“Until the human race cleans up its act, they are forbidden from from flying beyond the moon. ”
********************************************
So Elon Musk wont be landing on Mars any time soon?
http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.techinsider.io/how-elon-musk-will-colonize-mars-2016-4&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjT696o_PDOAhVFxGMKHQh_BiEQFggxMAU&usg=AFQjCNGTMESLkf5oC7skjPilne7MfH-7fg
The nectonites were responsible for yesterday’s Cape Canaveral fireworks?
#91 Steve French on 09.02.16 at 7:34 am
Nice.
So the REBGV ‘statistics’ have it the Mainstream media here in Vancouver. Instead of headlines crowing 80% sales declines year over year in Vancouver and Burnaby, the headlines cite:
“‘Greater Vancouver’ Home Sales drop 26% in the wake of the foreign buyers tax”
Note the disclaimer: “Areas covered by Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, New Westminster, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and South Delta.”
This kind of conflicts with the rule that ‘all real estate is local’; if you’re trying to sell a home in Burnaby, it doesn’t matter a bit what the market is like on the sunshine coast, or if the market is ‘hot’ for vacation condos in Whistler.
That’s a whole lot of pig polish!
Economy is looking gloomy (US’s one is basically lipstick on the pig), debt is growing, politicians will push the solution for the non existing problem in order to stimulate growth – green energy.
That will need trillions of investment but will help economy, hopefully the subsidies will stay in country (except if T2 gives it to Chinese).
Welcome to the new world where old economy rules don’t work (prices of RE will go up with some hiccups, debt will grow with mostly no correction, wars will happen as needed, and so on)
#16 Mark M.
The Fed’s next move is a cut. The explanations here will be like Christmas morning.
A bold statement.
Personally I would go with a less bold one: “BoC’s next move is a cut.”
But who knows, maybe the Federal Reserve will surprise.
And yes, there would be some amusing explanations here, if that happens.
My PhD scientist editors notes on the book.
You blogs turned me in a monster. It’s your fault Steve French, and Garth Turner.
It’s a great story, and your writing style is really good!!! I love your sense of humour. Definitely a very good and entertaining read!!
Once I finish reading everything this weekend I’m going to go back through it to make small editing suggestions here and there.
Lisa
U6 number is 10%. Thats the real unemployment number because it includes the under employed and the disenfranchised. Been at 10% for a long time.
And you can easily see no high level professional or manufacturing jobs are being created. Tech bleeds jobs every month. Patch is in a standstill. Its all low wage unskilled servers and bar tenders and maids. The job number is totally meaningless yet some people sit on the edge of their seat and watch it every month like its the 2nd coming.
#107 Smoking Man on 09.02.16 at 10:17
It’s pretty obvious. Even BOOM! Is starting to doubt the narrative. These guys screwed up. Rates should have risen years ago but they didn’t for some reason. Why? Why the fear? You can only play chicken so many times.
MF
Mark M 1
The American 0
MF
Mark M.
You will eat your words.
#122 MF
Yes, I doubt the “integrity, sincerity, data driven” choices made by the FED’s chairwoman. Interest rates should have been rising all along.
The new “jobs” number is still UP… not as strong as desired, but would certainly bolster the need to begin raising the short term FED controlled rates. Will it happen?
Step back a little…review that DJIA chart from 1900 to today. Look at the S&P chart from its beginning in 1927.
WHAT has been the overall direction -despite the inevitable gyrations-since the beginning? …UP…
Put your “til then” money into a broad based S&P or total market index fund, pay rock bottom fees, and just forget the dam thing until retirement time.
Should the world crash and burn before then, forget it we’re probably dead, or wish we were… any questions?
Even the (old retired Boomer) now BOOM! (in honor of Canada’s yet to unglue housing mess) has some later money sitting there cooking… in broad based index funds.
I just can’t get too excited over the daily farts in the market they mean absolutely nothing to an investor, they may mean a great deal to the traders, speculator’s and gamblers…
I am basically lazy, too.
M64WI
Craziness continues in Toronto. In my mid-town neighbourhood, a semi detached has just sold in less than a week for $1 million, $200,000 over asking. 2 bed, 1 bath, unfinished basement.
Similar semi but 3 bed, 2 bath for lease a few streets over for $3,500.
Changing nick’s here from A Canadian Abroad to The Technical Analyst.
Reasons: I’m not abroad anymore and since I’m a financial advisor/trader/investor and enjoy spreading financial literacy, The Technical Analyst suits my position more.
For today’s post:
Remember, a -20% decline in ANY asset NEEDS +25% increase to break even. A -30% decline needs 43%.
The trouble with RE is LEVERAGE used to purchase it which multiplies the risk to negative downside.
You DO NOT want to go underwater in ANY heavily leveraged asset.
Rates aren’t going no where.
They’re going to inflate their way out. Helicopter money.
Buy RE. Stocks and portfolio is imaginary fiat. Land is real.
If you seasonally adjust the SpaceX rocket, you could report it is currently orbiting earth, rather than being a smouldering pile of ashes at ground level.
“You DO NOT want to go underwater in ANY heavily leveraged asset.”
Very true. Because typically the cost of financing a leverage asset rises significantly with negative equity. Basically creating a feedback loop — negative equity positions cost more to finance, increasing negative equity and so on and so forth until there is a legitimate return to fundamentals. Usually involving overshoot.
This is what makes RE so toxic on the downside. Rising equity and falling spreads (ie: lender confidence) give way to quite the opposite — falling equity and rising spreads. Exactly what we’ve been seeing over the past 3 years or so of price stagnation, and will see much more of in the not-so-distant future as credit turns against the housing market. Throw in a rising CAD$ which is inevitable as deflation grips Canada, and its an almost certainty that the BoC will be down to ZIRP and perhaps even flirt with NIRP.
#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.02.16 at 11:14 am
@#112 Smokey
“Until the human race cleans up its act, they are forbidden from from flying beyond the moon. ”
********************************************
So Elon Musk wont be landing on Mars any time soon?
http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.techinsider.io/how-elon-musk-will-colonize-mars-2016-4&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjT696o_PDOAhVFxGMKHQh_BiEQFggxMAU&usg=AFQjCNGTMESLkf5oC7skjPilne7MfH-7fg
The nectonites were responsible for yesterday’s Cape Canaveral fireworks?
………..
Of course we took it out. That’s Ashman’s handy work.
http://m.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/230376/did_a_ufo_blew_up_spacex_watch_slow_motion_footage/
#126 Julia: I can see you live in a nice part of town. Is it leafy by any chance?
#131 Smoking Man on 09.02.16 at 2:56 pm
#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.02.16 at 11:14 am
@#112 Smokey
“Until the human race cleans up its act, they are forbidden from from flying beyond the moon. ”
********************************************
So Elon Musk wont be landing on Mars any time soon?
http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.techinsider.io/how-elon-musk-will-colonize-mars-2016-4&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjT696o_PDOAhVFxGMKHQh_BiEQFggxMAU&usg=AFQjCNGTMESLkf5oC7skjPilne7MfH-7fg
The nectonites were responsible for yesterday’s Cape Canaveral fireworks?
………..
Of course we took it out. That’s Ashman’s handy work.
http://m.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/230376/did_a_ufo_blew_up_spacex_watch_slow_motion_footage/
—
The facebook satellite that it was to launch had to be taken out……..
Also on Friday we should get the latest trauma report from the Vancouver Real Estate Board’s Triage Unit. Sales are a disaster. But will prices follow? If so, how quickly?
it sure sounds like a disaster, the exact numbers are not known but the overall picture is pretty clear: Vancouver sales have dropped dramatically. Prices will drop but first the market freezes over.
Joe Schmoe: I chuckle when people get the government intervention they want.
You can almost count to 10 before realisation of the horrific mistake occurs.
pretty funny
Ace Goodheart: from a couple of days ago: Two professionals, high income earners, 650K between the two of them.
So what do they do? They buy real estate. Lots of it. 5 rental properties, over 3 million dollars in mortgages, minimum down on each one.
Then, they build themselves a house. Purchase a lot at a premium price, in a gentrified neighbourhood, with a perfectly good house on it, which they promptly tear down then spend a year fighting the City for a variance (lawyer bills!).
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/08/30/the-landing-4/#comment-469502
good story, what city?
So if you want to know what’s going on in the mind if RE sellers in the lower mainland right now, check this fellows blog notes. Hilarious.
http://paulliberatore.com/blog.html/so-this-happened-to-me-today-4581499
‘….minutes etc so we write an offer with no subjects. All cash offer, quick closing, 10% OVER the asking price. There are 3 offers total, including ours. We submit the offer and cross our fingers. I get an email back from the listing agent saying “Thank you for your offer. The seller is choosing not to counter any offers this evening as they are all lower than their expectations.” I read the email a few times as I am saying to myself ….. “lower than your expectations…’
What the Van Cattle heard on CBC radio this week:
-Van RE sales dropped 22.8 % in Aug, to a more…. balanced market.
-Van H.B.A. says 5,000 jobs will be lost in 4 months, from the 15% F.B. tax.
-US jobs misses by over 100K putting the Fed on hold, again.
-Negative CAN G.D.P. @ 1.6 % will force Stevie P. to cut.
-Through it all, Van home prices, still rose 5% in the last 3 months.
The CBC is the systems internally run propaganda arm.
It’s not what’s actually happening that affects the herd’s decision making process, as they don’t read
sources like Greater Fool.
It’s what the Cattle are fed and led to believe that means everything. Don’t worry, I’m sure Global TV will set everyone straight : )
Still think RE is going to tank in VAN?
I learned the hard way, never bet against the system…..
#130 Mark
”Throw in a rising CAD$ which is inevitable as deflation grips Canada, and its an almost certainty that the BoC will be down to ZIRP and perhaps even flirt with NIRP.”
I’m with you all the way on that one.
#81 Tony
”If oil prices mean anything the jobs print will be under 100,000 for August.”
Have you considered getting a job with the government as a statistician.
#71 The Wet Coast on 09.01.16 at 11:23 pm
”I am told in the old days on the VSE they hired guys to ride up and down elevators and tell each other about some mining company that had a huge strike. We’re so past that now. Its not like someone would hire folks to show up at Open Houses driving high dollar SUVs. Naw, not possible.”
I used to ride up and down those elevators back in the early 70’s at lunch hour. Loved watching the traders on the floor. We used to have a saying, “Who is the most knowledgable person at the VSE?” Answer: The elevator operator.
BlackSheep;
t’s what the Cattle are fed and led to believe that means everything. Don’t worry, I’m sure Global TV will set everyone straight : )
I think that we are in agreement with that but I guess it comes down to what you think they are being fed. When the President of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver refuses to recommend buying a home in Vancouver, it sure doesn’t fill people with confidence.
I guess time will tell what meal the masses choose to eat. Lol
VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130
“The record-breaking sales we saw earlier this year were replaced by more historically normal activity throughout July and August,” Dan Morrison, REBGV president says. “Sales have been trending downward in Metro Vancouver for a few months. The new foreign buyer tax appears to have added to this trend by reducing foreign buyer activity and causing some uncertainty amongst local home buyers and sellers.”
“The sales numbers for August are actually pretty much in line with our 10 year average,” he says. “We’re excited about this, that we’re actually getting back to a balanced market.”
Morrison jokingly adds, it’s above his pay-grade to say whether now is the time to buy or sell.
“I can’t find that damn crystal ball that I wish they’d give me, but it feels like we’re turning back into a normal market, whatever a normal market is for Vancouver.”
Morrison joined us on the air to talk about the latest numbers.
SM- I am not a country singer fan. Linguistics is a weak attribute with me. I have learned to go with what I see, not what I hear. I like music with a heartbeat and tend to ignore lyrics. I have come to appreciate the brilliance of John Cash’s lyrics but it is still musical scores that count with me and I like horns, violins and percussion at a fast beat with vocals as a supplement. Hey, being right brained means you are highly visual with spatial ability.
I enjoy the Fallout Boys videos. Check this one out. https://youtu.be/LBr7kECsjcQ
I love the subliminal. Guts and courage matter for better or worse… Devine help doesn’t hurt (also known as luck). We all have the ability to choose.
Maybe the nectonites would like a more recent iteration of Mr cash
Check out Mike Ness of social d
Great homage to Johnny
#132 Context
How did you know? According to local realtors, it is leafy, prime location and high demand school district!!
People are insane.
Oops, wrong again. And even if fed did raise rates .25% it would probably be the last for a very long time and hardly represent real pain for mortgage holders.
The fed is in a corner and can’t raise rates without wrecking the economy locally or globally and the full employment you refer in US is partly illusion. Try reading John Mauldin or Mish Shedlock for better take on what’s really happening in the economy. Shedlock leans a little too negative perhaps but he’ll break down the real employment numbers for you.
The real estate market in Canada is highly over inflated and you’ve got that right but it won’t be interest rates that brings it down. It’ll be some other trigger.