Sunny ways

MOVING TO CANADA modified

So far this year Bay Street has handed investors a 12% gift. That return on the TSX has been double the amount recorded by Wall Street, where the Dow and the S&P are both ahead about 6%. So far in 2016, after eight months, a balanced and diversified portfolio – despite Brexit, Trump & ISIS – has given investors a return of 5%, and it looks like there are sunny ways ahead (as some tattooed dude once said).

So why are investors in financial assets doing okay while the Canadian economy diddles? After all, the latest GDP numbers suck – a big 1.6% (annualized) contraction in the last quarter, thanks to the incineration of Fort Mac, slumping exports and a slowing fading manufacturing sector?

Oil and commodity values sure helped. Crude has gained more than 65% since the winter, for example. The financials are doing okay, as the latest round of bank earnings showed. Preferred shares continue to pump out a 5%-plus return, while REIT distributions have been manly and bond prices have strengthened. So while Main Street’s been pouring cash (most of it borrowed) into real estate, 1%ers have riding the other bull.

But what about risk?

Hard to imagine there’s more in any asset class than residential real estate. Look at the latest RBC anti-affordability survey – the biggest plop in more than a quarter century just too place. It now requires 126.8% of pre-tax income to carry a detached Van house. That’s pre-tax – not the actual money a family receives from working. And the whole thing is premised on having a whopping 25% down payment. In other words, this is a market where housing fundamentals have detached from the economy. It will not last – the basic definition of risk.

In Toronto, it takes 72.2% of median pre-tax income to carry a detached house, which is pretty close to 100% of take-home cash flow. This is the worst that things have been in 16 years, a fact made all the more poignant when you consider a five-year mortgage is now 2.2% and in 1990 it was 12.1%. As pointed out here often, there’s a perfect correlation between rates and house prices. The rate bottom brings peak house. If that’s not now, it’s close enough to smell.

In 1990 a monthly payment of $3,100 carried a mortgage of $300,000. Today for the same bucks you can carry $750,000. See why houses have more than doubled in value? And why they can decrease in exactly the same fashion?

This is risk. Because rates will rise over time, just as they have declined in the same fashion. Home loans of 12% are unthinkable at the moment, but a doubling of current five-year rates are pretty much a certainty. The US Fed will increase at least once this year, and likely twice (or more) in 2017. And Canada will follow.

In fact the next few years should be great for financial markets and misery for real estate. There are a few compelling reasons for this.

Trump is toast. Clinton, massively imperfect as she may be, will win the US election in November, ushering in a significant equity rally and eight years of left-leaning government with increased budgets and deficits. Markets like Dems. They like spending. And lots of government fiscal stimulus will let the central bank tighten up on monetary stimulus. That’s another way of saying ‘higher rates.’ The Bank of Canada, ultimately, will not resist this trend, and the bond market will quickly roll over.

Speaking of Canada, continued US recovery (it’s real, if tepid, and sustainable) will help edge commodity values higher with increased demand. Oil in the mid-forties should be twenty bucks more expensive in a year or so – enough to help rebound our limpy economy. The Bank of Canada knows this, which is why it will not be cutting its key rate even given the bad numbers out on Wednesday.

Meanwhile global growth, believe it or not, is plodding along at about 2%. Not bad, actually. And around the world, central bankers have been coordinating monetary policy in a way that makes those warning of another 2008 look like the Chicken Littles of our age.

Now, having said all of that, you should know this: there’s only one month of the year since 1928 when stock markets have given a median negative return. And that month starts on Thursday. But now you know what to do.

SEPTEMBER

166 comments ↓

#1 SJR on 08.31.16 at 5:54 pm

First?

#2 james on 08.31.16 at 5:55 pm

“Clinton, massively imperfect as she may be, will win the US election in November, ushering in a significant equity rally and eight years of left-leaning government with increased budgets and deficits. Markets like Dems. They like spending.”

Come on. I’ve already posted links from both left and right wing economists showing that Republican administrations have actually been far worse at spending like drunken sailors and running up deficits. Reagan was a nightmare, despite his rhetoric, and it was Bill Clinton’s administration that started shrinking the public service and getting spending under control.

I find it somewhat strange that a former conservative MP can have imbibed so much left wing progressivist mythology. That goes for this inexplicable faith in centralized banking (i.e., top down command-and-control of the monetary system).

#3 Exilled on 08.31.16 at 5:59 pm

Sir Garth:
I don’t get it!!
How can a balanced portfolio be doing so great when the economy is in the sh!tt!er?

#4 JSS on 08.31.16 at 6:03 pm

“there’s only one month of the year since 1928 when stock markets have given a median negative return. And that month starts on Thursday. But now you know what to do.”

Had conceived two bright children in September. So trust me – I do know what to do.

#5 MARGARET on 08.31.16 at 6:03 pm

Yes, we have to learn to manage and invest our income. but wouldnt that be doubly true of our governments? People who are paid to manage ” we the people” the taxpayers, earned income paid out in taxes to the gov’t coffers..sadly see: https://www.ft.com/content/e46e8c00-6b72-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a28c?ftcamp=engage/email/august2016/b2c/monthlynewsletter/crm&utm_source=b2c&utm_medium=email&utm_term=august2016&utm_campaign=monthlynewsletter and https://www.ft.com/content/e46e8c00-6b72-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a28c?ftcamp=engage/email/august2016/b2c/monthlynewsletter/crm&utm_source=b2c&utm_medium=email&utm_term=august2016&utm_campaign=monthlynewsletter

#6 Exilled on 08.31.16 at 6:04 pm

Oh, yes. FIRST

#7 SitesTree.com on 08.31.16 at 6:04 pm

Is that why REIT is falling sharply?
I am planning not to sale though….

#8 For those about to flop... on 08.31.16 at 6:05 pm

I vote to change Christmas to September 25th to change this problem…

M42BC

#9 Bram on 08.31.16 at 6:08 pm

Meh… staying long TSX/NYSE for september.

It means I will not miss merger-events, like yesterday’s +12% for my potassium stock!

#10 MARGARET on 08.31.16 at 6:09 pm

oops…double posting..S/B
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/kevin-oleary/open-letter-to-ontario-pr_b_11759978.html

#11 Biggles on 08.31.16 at 6:11 pm

The interest rates will not go up in an appreciable way in the west for a long time. The reason is demographics and the boomers are in saving mode .

The housing market will correct, but not in the across the board fashion that most believe, unless you have a real economic downturn which is not in the cards as the west is flat economically and will be for at least a decade until the Millennials enter there late 30’s. The houses that will fall in price will be the 4 to 5 bedroom single when the boomers start to sell for retirement. Most sell between 66 and 71. This housing correction will happen because of demographics not a raise in interest rates.

#12 unbalanced on 08.31.16 at 6:12 pm

Where oh where is JIMMY!

#13 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 08.31.16 at 6:12 pm

as usual
i say
thx fir the money and headz up info garth

#14 Jungle on 08.31.16 at 6:17 pm

“You know what to do”
Sell your house and buy stocks!!

Traditional balanced portfolio YTD (total) returns 25% each split:
XBB + 4.77%
XEF -3.53%
XIC +14.30%
HXS +1.6%
______________
4.28% YTD return CAD dollar

Your portfolio sucks. — Garth

#15 Randy on 08.31.16 at 6:21 pm

Any chance that the Clinton Foundation has been laundering its’ $ Billions by buying houses in Toronto and Vancouver ?

#16 JSS on 08.31.16 at 6:28 pm

# 3 – My guess is that money has been moving into dividend-growth ETF’s/stocks on the TSX that pay a reasonable dividend > 3% and provide a tax credit. And there are several of these on the TSX. Same thing in the US. Overall, more yield than say bonds, at this moment.

# 7 – REIT’s falling sharply may have to do with the fact that the US Feds are preparing for the next (and several other) rate hikes, and Canada eventually to follow.

#17 ole Doberman on 08.31.16 at 6:32 pm

Gartho are you calling a 1987 style crash in sept?

#18 Suede on 08.31.16 at 6:35 pm

“while REIT distributions have been manly and bond prices have strengthened”

———-

I thought Trudeau said it was 2016?

REIT distributions could be woMANly too, i guess.

Hey, how come female US Open players only play best of 3 sets and men play best of 5?

But i digress…

#19 NoName on 08.31.16 at 6:36 pm

#2 james on 08.31.16 at 5:55 pm

it doesnt mater who the president is and this dide explains it nicely.
https://youtu.be/LlO9XH7orLg

#20 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.31.16 at 6:37 pm

As I’ve already shown, Canada’s massive housing bubble is evident in markets from coast to coast.

With similar incomes and interest rate levels, Canadians should pay approximately the same as Americans for homes.

That was the case for the longest time until Canada chose to lower lending standards even more in 2006-07, as it continued to use CMHC and Genworth as its economic action plan. Apparently poor enforcement of these lax lending standards is also part of its economic action plan. These decisions have enabled those without money to bid up house prices across Canada over the last 15 to 20 years.

Comparing Canadian homes to similar homes in the US makes it clear how bloated house prices in Canada have become as a result of bubble-blowing policy.

The example below shows how ridiculously high house prices are in Canada.

Canadians pay around $495 K for a house in the tiny, cold prairie town of Portage la Prairie, MB while Americans pay approximately the same amount for a similar house in San Diego, CA.

Americans voted California # 2 – where Americans would most like to live (Harris Poll)

$ 490 K, San Diego, CA

* Above Ground: 4 beds, 3 baths, 1,801 sq. ft.
* Build in 2008, attached double garage

(google the entire next line to view the listing)

$ 495 K, Portage la Prairie, MB

* Above Ground: 3 beds, 3 baths, 1,800 sq. ft.
* Basement: 1 bed, 1 bath
* Built in 2012, attached double garage

#21 martin9999 on 08.31.16 at 6:40 pm

Incorrect sir. Trump will win.

#22 BOOM! on 08.31.16 at 6:45 pm

Despite all the rhetoric, REIT’s off they highs, I do NOT believe Yellen and the Fed will put through a rate hike in Sept.
Latest data sucks. They claim to be (but do not act like) a data driven enterprise.
Naturally, all are free to believe whatever they wish, just remember, because you believe it, does not make it true.

3 examples: Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, The Chicago Cubs. (feel free to substitute the MN Vikings)

Aug/Sept doldrums on Wall St.
M64WI

#23 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.31.16 at 6:47 pm

(google the entire next line to view the listing)

$495,000 Portage la Prairie, MB

(first search result, 4th house down)

#24 Rexx Rock on 08.31.16 at 7:00 pm

High real estate prices are a reflection of a booming economy,low interests rates ,low vacancy rates and an abundance of well paying jobs like Victoria.Met a guy at the gym and he said his house went up $200,000 in 4 years.Talk about hyper inflation.Also rents on houses in affluent Victoria went up $500 a month in 5 years.Good times in Victoria.

#25 Life among the Stars on 08.31.16 at 7:03 pm

#17 ole Doberman on 08.31.16 at 6:32 pm

Gartho are you calling a 1987 style crash in sept?
—————-

The long-haired bearded host on the 1987 bloodbath!!!

http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1503834631

#26 Self Directed on 08.31.16 at 7:04 pm

there’s only one month of the year since 1928 when stock markets have given a median negative return. And that month starts on Thursday. But now you know what to do. – Garth

Garth, can we expect ETF’s to drop in value a bit through September, making October a better time to launch my portfolio?

#27 Russ on 08.31.16 at 7:11 pm

james on 08.31.16 at 5:55 pm

Come on. I’ve already posted links from both left and right wing economists showing that Republican administrations have actually been far worse at

spending like drunken sailors and running up deficits.
==============================

James, bud.

We’ve been through this before, they do not spend like drunken sailors.

Sailors spend their own money and just what they have on hand.
Whereas politicians spend other people’s money and they are quite willing to borrow it on your behalf.

Try to keep up eh.

#28 Craig on 08.31.16 at 7:11 pm

“But what about risk?
Hard to imagine there’s more in any asset class than residential real estate.”

“In fact the next few years should be great for financial markets and misery for real estate.”

Bit of a catch-22 situation in Canada . Most shorted stocks on the tsx are financials primarily because of worrries about a housing bubble and the record debt load of homeowners . If the housing bubble corrects substantially in Canada then the financial markets will be in for a rough patch.

Completely incorrect and naive assumption. — Garth

#29 Context on 08.31.16 at 7:14 pm

#2 james:- It is common knowledge that Bill Clinton borrowed funds from the Social Security Trust Fund in order to balance the books. Now its just a filing cabinet filled with IOU’s. Bill Clinton was a crook.

#30 A Yank in BC on 08.31.16 at 7:15 pm

Markets like Dems? Oh boy.. that’s a whopper. It’s the U.S. House of Representatives that controls spending, and it’s been firmly Republican for the last six years. What markets really like is when Congress and the White House are held by opposing parties.

#31 Shawn on 08.31.16 at 7:16 pm

It’s unlikely WTI is >$60/bbl in 2017. Bear markets of this magnitude take time to shake out all of the prior bulls. There are too many bullish targets on oil. I think we end 2017 around $40/bbl. We now live in a world where the US is the largest oil producer. Unheard of 5 years ago…

#32 Shawn on 08.31.16 at 7:20 pm

The TSX remains ~6% below its 2014 high. It has largely been dead money since 2007 – 9 years. Yes the 2.7% yield is nice…

The S&P 500 is the place to be. It’s usually best to keep things as simple as possible. Just buy a Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. VFV or VOO.

#33 Hitlery on 08.31.16 at 7:24 pm

Hitlery will steal the election. Brought to you by Diebold.
http://m.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/114412/Hacking_Democracy__Full_Length/
Even ghough the usa was a republic.

#34 Cory on 08.31.16 at 7:26 pm

“It now requires 126.8% of pre-tax income to carry a detached Van house.”

O.M.G!! – how stupid and embarrassing. Wow. Those are the only words that can be used for everyone involved in allowing this to occur.

#35 Ronaldo on 08.31.16 at 7:28 pm

Time for a re-run. Vancouver Real Estate Roller Coaster. Enjoy the ride.

https://vimeo.com/11211712?hd=1

#36 Tony on 08.31.16 at 7:30 pm

Re: #17 ole Doberman on 08.31.16 at 6:32 pm

Try December this year not the month of September.

#37 not 1st on 08.31.16 at 7:33 pm

Garth stuns me honestly. He couldnt be more wrong about the economy.

This economy doesnt get off the ground again without the Fed backing off for years, China currency devaluation and the rest of the world including Canada going into NIRP. If you look closely, you can feel it grinding slower regardless of what the TSX says.

#38 Mark on 08.31.16 at 7:41 pm

Rates don’t even need to rise for house prices to go down. That is exactly what we’ve seen over the past 3-4 years. Rates have actually fallen, but so have house prices. Why? Because 70%+ Canadians already own. The industry has satiated all of the demand that is reasonably expected to exist, and there is an army of construction workers, machinery, and land available to build more supply if it is needed in the economy.

A lot of critics claim that the presence of the “agricultural land reserve” causes Vancouver’s prices to be high (and some rather stupid people claim that there isn’t any land in the Vancouver region to develop — a claim easily debunked with Google Maps or a quick flight into YVR). However, if this were the case, that physical supply was restrained, then rents would be skyrocketing. We don’t see rents skyrocketing — rents are barely tracking inflation in the lower Mainland. Hence, we can only conclude that financial speculation, of the likes seen previously in the dot-com bubble, and even the late 1970s gold bubble, is responsible for high Vancouver prices.

Speaking of precious metals, long-term bond prices and precious metals tend to exhibit a significant inverse correlation. So as Vancouver RE deflates, Vancouver-based gold and silver mining companies should inflate owing to the negative correlation. Given that Vancouver RE is priced at many multiples over replacement cost, and the mines are trading at a fraction of replacement cost — the cross-over point at which it would be worthwhile to sell precious metals shares and re-purchase into Vancouver RE is still a long ways off.

With similar incomes and interest rate levels, Canadians should pay approximately the same as Americans for homes.

I personally believe there’s a case for Canadian housing to cost more than US housing, on a square footage basis. But nothing, and I mean, nothing resembling the current differential.

there’s only one month of the year since 1928 when stock markets have given a median negative return. And that month starts on Thursday.

Incidentally, September is historically the best month for the precious metals historically. So might not turn out that bad for the TSX which is structurally overweight the precious metals miners.

#39 Ronaldo on 08.31.16 at 7:46 pm

#11 Biggles

”Most sell between 66 and 71. This housing correction will happen because of demographics not a raise in interest rates.”

Source please.

#40 Jungle on 08.31.16 at 7:48 pm

That “sucky” portfolio is standard benchmark index.. About 7.1% annual return over last 20 years.

All without reit or preferred shares ;) ;) ;)

#41 james's friend on 08.31.16 at 7:58 pm

#2 james on 08.31.16 at 5:55 pm

Gartho also said Obama was a one-term, one-trick pony…Brexit wouldn’t ever ever happen…so maybe his pro-Clinton pill-swallowing is the anti-jinx.

Trump 2016!

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/31/exclusive-breitbartgravis-arizona-presidential-poll-trump-44-clinton-40-with-johnson-8-stein-1/

#42 Timmy on 08.31.16 at 7:59 pm

t now requires 126.8% of pre-tax income to carry a detached Van house. That’s pre-tax – not the actual money a family receives from working. And the whole thing is premised on having a whopping 25% down payment. In other words, this is a market where housing fundamentals have detached from the economy. It will not last – the basic definition of risk.

So if it takes so much income how can you say that Asian investors aren’t driving the market in Vancouver?

#43 Freedom First on 08.31.16 at 8:02 pm

Yes. I want to be paid for everything I own. Including RE, which I always also get paid for, whether I own or rent. ETF dividends rock. And I know when to re-balance. This is not rocket science. Lastly, never be a debt slave. Unfortunately, the majority have come to accept their debt slavery as normal. Present company excluded.

007
Freedom First
PHD/Freedomonics

#44 Ignorance Is Bliss on 08.31.16 at 8:06 pm

No way do I think “a doubling of current five-year rates is pretty much a certainty”…

Well okay, maybe a decade or more from now. But right now, the economy is still controlled by Baby Boomers, the largest cohort of consumers with enough money to impact markets. Maybe millennials are slightly larger in number now, but when you’re talking about people 18-34 years of age, with tough job prospects and huge student debt, how much money does this group have to impact the economy? Not a whole lot. Whatever little money they have they are spending on iPhones and Starbucks purchases. The Baby Boomers still rule the economy, and they are done with their major purchases in life and are busy trying to save for retirement or make whatever retirement savings they have, last. Hence, the low interest rates are creating an artificial encouragement for people to “buy” because otherwise there wouldn’t be near as much buying going on.

#45 Andrew Woburn on 08.31.16 at 8:10 pm

I wouldn’t call this a potential black swan. Perhaps more like a dirty duck.

“in a large part of the former Soviet Union, including Russia’s two major allies, Kazakhstan and Belarus, there are no reliable democratic methods of power transfer. In Russia itself, should Putin fall seriously ill or die, the transition is unlikely to be smooth. The whole vast region is kept relatively peaceful by a handful of aging men, most with Soviet leadership experience, who have turned into authoritarian nationalist leaders. Should any of them go, instability arises immediately. The bloodless revolution of 1991, which destroyed the Soviet Union, is unfinished in many ways, but perhaps primarily in this one: The current regimes are placeholders for true statehood and, as such, ticking time bombs.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-30/central-asia-is-less-stable-than-it-looks

#46 ANON on 08.31.16 at 8:15 pm

And that month starts on Thursday

It could also start on a Monday, in a more traditional way . But this is a very unusual situation, so who knows. The year is 2016, though.

#47 Andrew Woburn on 08.31.16 at 8:15 pm

“Some say Brexit was the first primordial scream against this emerging world order. If so, the grass-roots uprising against the TTIP project may be the second.”

– Trade wars: Why the central pillar of global order is in danger of collapse as TTIP disintegrates

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/30/ttip-trade-pact-near-failure-as-france-demands-total-halt-to-us/

#48 Say What? on 08.31.16 at 8:15 pm

“Because rates will rise over time, just as they have declined in the same fashion.” – Garth

—————————————————–

You just don’t give up Garth. When will you just admit how wrong you’ve been these last eight years? There is just no way that rates can rise because of the very reasons you’ve stated. Primarily the massive indebtedness of the country. Isn’t it time to stop beating that dead horse of rising rates?

#49 freemoney on 08.31.16 at 8:20 pm

Here is what my crystal ball tells me ..
– Interest rates will not rise for a very long time in Canada and the US
– Rates don’t have to rise for housing party to end, didn’t happen in the US during 2008
– Flippers will walk away from under water mortgages
– There will be a mass bail-out of banks and slap on the wrist for debters.
– People will live free for years in foreclosed properties due to bank’s backlogs and inefficient processes

Stop worrying, borrow and spend – u won’t have to payback. If you can’t beat them, join them.

#50 TCContrarian on 08.31.16 at 8:24 pm

And around the world, central bankers have been coordinating monetary policy in a way that makes those warning of another 2008 look like the Chicken Littles of our age. — GT
_______________________________________________

Care to explain?

In 2008, the GFC was caused by too much mortgage debt (primarily US, but also a few other countries, like Spain, Ireland…), and leveraged products related to this.

Fast-forward to 2016…

We now have a global debt problem which exceeds the 2008 levels (personal, government, and corporate), but we’re going to somehow sail through it because the Central Bankers got us covered?

I think not! In my opinion (and some others’ who matter), the next crisis will likely dwarf the last one.

Be prepared…

#51 John in Mtl on 08.31.16 at 8:31 pm

Perhaps a fitting article for everyone who beleives the US elections are fair and honest… Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump – the machine has already decided.

Quote: “But with electronic voting machines, the question will not be decided by what Amerians want, but by how the electronic machines are programmed to report the vote. The US has already had elections in which the exit polls, always a reliable indicator of the winner prior to the appearance of electronic voting machines, indicated a different winner than the electronic voting machines produced. The secrecy of how the voting machines are programmed is protected by “proprietary software.” The machines have no paper trails, precluding vote recounts.

As both political establishments are fiercely opposed to Trump, how do you think the machines will be programmed? Indeed, the media is so opposed to Trump, the question is whether there will be exit polls and if there are, will they be misreported?”

Full article: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/08/29/can-americans-overthrow-the-evil-that-rules-them-paul-craig-roberts/

#52 For those about to flop... on 08.31.16 at 8:35 pm

It seems everyone accepts that Hillary Clinton has more baggage than an airport with stuff like the email scandal,Bengazi and Clinton Foundation accusations but if America goes with her after all this surely the Republican Party will fancy another crack at her in four years with a less extreme candidate.

With the growing discontention and not much seemingly getting done in congress ,the anti establishment movement seems set to continue in popularity.

I think no matter who wins there is a good chance of a one term President for the first time in a while.

Anyway,I will go sit back down at the kiddies table now…

M42BC

#53 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.31.16 at 8:41 pm

# 24 Rexx Rock

Any links to back your claims? Of course not.

You’d have a difficult time trying to convince anyone who actually lives in Victoria that Victoria has had a steady supply of available high-paying jobs over the last 10 years, for example.

It’s no secret that many young people left Victoria after the last temporary uptick in construction activity ended less than 10 years ago. Some may have come back for the current temporary uptick in construction activity, but that will end also.

As is the case with other Canadian cities, a temporary uptick in construction activity (due to record-low interest rates) does not qualify as a solution for a normally weak economy (think Victoria).

As I’ve said, house prices in Victoria will begin falling again. That’s guaranteed. Sales of detached houses have already fallen dramatically. First sales numbers decline, then prices.

We’ve seen a dramatic decline in detached house sales in 2016 during the normally busy months.

. . . . . . . .Greater Victoria. . . . . . . .
Monthly Detached House Sales Totals
. . . . . Compared to April 2016. . . . . .
———————————————————–
April…….*******************
May…….***************
June……************
July……..***
————————————————————
. . . .-40%. . . . . -20%. . . . . .0%.

(Source: Victoria’s R/E board)

Sales of detached houses were down 23% month-over-month across Greater Victoria. It’s apparent this is part of a trend that began after April.

Monthly sales totals compared to April 2016:
May: down 9%
June: down 17%
July: down 36%

It’s only a matter of time before prices begin to fall again.

#54 Mark on 08.31.16 at 8:50 pm

“So if it takes so much income how can you say that Asian investors aren’t driving the market in Vancouver?”

The calculations are with respect to new purchases, not to people leveraging their existing equity to buy. Which is primarily what is happening in the Vancouver/Toronto RE markets. But actually most of the “higher prices” alleged by the Realtors over the past 3 years or so in Vancouver/Toronto are driven by shifts to the sales mix, not individual identical units appreciating. However, affordability, even at stagnant prices, is still quite poor.

– People will live free for years in foreclosed properties due to bank’s backlogs and inefficient processes

The process with the CMHC basically requires that the banks act rapidly to protect their legal rights after a default has occurred. Since the banks are guaranteed repayment at 100 cents on the dollar on a defaulted CMHC mortgage, absent only minor efforts at rehabilitation, they will rapidly move to exercise their rights and sell the properties in question (or assign their rights to the CMHC to do the same in exchange for full repayment if the CMHC would prefer to accept the job of re-marketing the property as they often do!). Thus ensuring that Canada’s liquidation is far more rapid than seen in the USA where there was legitimate private sector wealth at risk.

I think VREU hit the nail on the head — the BoC (and Fed) have extremely limited policy options to deal with a RE crash this time around, unlike the situation in 2008 where long-term interest rates still could be hammered down, along with short-term rates with programs such as ZIRP, QE, and MBS purchases.

#55 MF on 08.31.16 at 8:54 pm

“ushering in a significant equity rally and eight years of left-leaning government with increased budgets and deficits. Markets like Dems. They like spending. And lots of government fiscal stimulus will let the central bank tighten up on monetary stimulus.”

-I remember reading that about T2 when the Libs were elected. No more monetary stimulus. On to the fiscal stimulus. Doesn’t look like it’s done very good here though. Perhaps we should not judge yet since T2 has only been in power for under a year but I do not think so, sorry.

On to the US. Another Democrat in power is just a continuation of the last 8 years, during which the US debt has ballooned, quality jobs have disappeared, and the US position militarily has been weakened (Iran deal failure, Ukraine failure, Mid east policy failure). This is regardless of whether you believe the fake job numbers or not.

And why does nobody mention the trillions of dollars of debt? I keep hearing the reason for this neglect/ignoring/pretending it doesn’t exist is because all that matters is if the US can service its debt. Still, does that mean that everyone should just ignore it and keep spending/printing? At some point someone should start to get worried.

Lastly, why hasn’t the “fiscal” stimulus from Obama helped lift rates so far? He’s been in power for about a decade. He’s a democrat. Can the Americans afford another ten years of stimulus? I’m going to say no.

It’s natural to be skeptical with it all. Something doesn’t add up.

MF

#39 Ronaldo on 08.31.16 at 7:46 pm

My parents (72, 69) and all their friends the same age have zero desire to move out of the paid off house.

#56 Andrew Woburn on 08.31.16 at 9:03 pm

#21 martin9999 on 08.31.16 at 6:40 pm
Incorrect sir. Trump will win.
====================

Trump could get 51% of the popular vote and still lose. He needs to win a majority of electoral college votes and these are mainly tied to winning particular states. Just like the Canadian first-past-the-post system, a lot of Trump’s voting support will be “wasted” in big states like California which carry a lot of EC votes but he cannot win.
He might win more states than she does but they will be ones with small EC numbers.

Current estimates from the 538 web site say Clinton will probably take 320 EC votes but she only needs 270 to win.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

#57 MF on 08.31.16 at 9:06 pm

#50 TCContrarian on 08.31.16 at 8:24 pm

I think during every press conference, these central bankers put on a brave face and try to portray confidence in front of the camera………When they are finished with the press release, they calmly walk back behind closed doors and then have an anxiety attack.

These guys are clueless. All the ammo has been spent and it’s merely a temporary stalemate, until the attackers come again in droves. The CB’s are sitting ducks. Hence the fear to raise rates above “emergency” levels.

MF

#58 jfish on 08.31.16 at 9:07 pm

Where did all you predictors of the future come from? And the confidence is beautiful. Forget investing move to Vegas. With your absolute knowledge who needs to invest. And the host leads the way. It is all so nauseating and BS. George Carlin is soooo right.

#59 Andrew t on 08.31.16 at 9:10 pm

#42 Timmy on 08.31.16 at 7:59 pm
t now requires 126.8% of pre-tax income to carry a detached Van house. That’s pre-tax – not the actual money a family receives from working. And the whole thing is premised on having a whopping 25% down payment. In other words, this is a market where housing fundamentals have detached from the economy. It will not last – the basic definition of risk.

So if it takes so much income how can you say that Asian investors aren’t driving the market in Vancouver?

D-E-B-T.

#60 Brian Ripley on 08.31.16 at 9:11 pm

There is risk in the oil patch in Canada and elsewhere:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/big-oil-big-debt-big-solar

Inventories and related debt are having an effect on earnings. This might well be a statement about real estate as an asset in trouble if D. Trump wins (he vows to “unleash” the U.S. energy potential).

In the meantime, Alberta is living the reality of the offside balance sheet:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

#61 Victor V on 08.31.16 at 9:11 pm

Feedback received by the City of Vancouver reveals anti-Asian racism persists in real-estate debate

http://www.straight.com/news/767491/feedback-received-city-vancouver-reveals-anti-asian-racism-persists-real-estate-debate

#62 Biggles on 08.31.16 at 9:11 pm

Hi Ronaldo

There are quite a few demographic studys. The Bank of International Settlements uses 70 years old but many other studies show it starts just after 65. Surveys of younger boomers show they want to stay in there house longer. However , what actually happens and what people think they are going to do in retirement are often very different. Most economics is driven by demographics. The central banks are finding out constantly trying to stimulate the overall economy is not working as intended. It’s demographics that drive the economy overall.

Cheers

Biggles

#63 Victor V on 08.31.16 at 9:13 pm

Unlike the U.S. experience, Canada’s housing meltdown will be gradual

http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/unlike-the-u-s–experience-canadas-housing-meltdown-will-be-gradual-213062.aspx

#64 MF on 08.31.16 at 9:21 pm

What is the big deal with Trump. Honestly.

I watched his acceptance speech at the RNC.

His message was essentially:

1) Free trade that does not benefit Americans has to go (globalization benefits the top .1%)
2) Trillions of dollars of debt and unending stimulus is bad (because someone has to pay for it eventually)
3) Thugs who kill police officers need to be thrown in jail. This is regardless of the race of the killer.
4) Immigration is welcome but it has to be controlled. (See the EU as an example of what not to do)
5) People who disagree and hate Americans should not be pandered to (see Neville Chamberlain).

I see how some comments are misconstrued, but a lot make sense too.

MF

#65 TurnerNation on 08.31.16 at 9:26 pm

Augustly sell in September.

#66 Terry on 08.31.16 at 9:33 pm

“Trump is toast.” Seriously Garth???

Your really out of touch on this one……in my opinion.

You seem to be losing your way Garth slanting more to the left as the year progresses. Liberalization, Globalization, too much borrowing, cheap money and too much Central bank intervention creating unnecessary inflation are what is messing up this world today.
Too many people think the problems that created the 08\09 crisis have been fixed……….they have not! The bad debts are still there impairing the true vale of those zombie companies. Caveat emptor everyone because another crisis will soon be on our doorstep…..the problems have not been solved or cleared away by a long shot! Yellen, Bernanke and their wrecking crew have got it all wrong. What the financial world really needs is a strong dose of DEFLATION that only strong Recessions or a Depression can create. Were all heading for another brick wall everyone……….mathematically it’s inevitable.

Good luck!

#67 Grantmi on 08.31.16 at 9:39 pm

#6 Exilled on 08.31.16 at 6:04 pm
Oh, yes. FIRST

#1 SJR on 08.31.16 at 5:54 pm
First?

Dumb and Dumber!

#68 Smoking Man on 08.31.16 at 9:56 pm

One hour into a drunk… No buzz. No creative thoughts. Nothing good or bad to say.

What a drag it is getting old…

Best years are in the rear view mirror..

Thinking of starting up a Lunatic Forex Training School.

By a bar, drink all day, let my students drink all day.
Charge admittance, 5 dollar cover charge just to watch Smokey do his thing on the big screen.

Who’s in….. Any crazes put there.

#69 Barb on 08.31.16 at 10:00 pm

Oil down, silver up considerably.

#70 The big deal with Trump on 08.31.16 at 10:05 pm

# MF
What is the big deal with Trump. Honestly.

…..

The Dem/Rep, Lib/Con “opposition” game have been running the same playbook, to maintain pretend democracy, while moving the world to the same globalized direction that erodes liberties by manufacturing crises after crises, when people are willing to submit 1984-style regimes.

Trump came into the picture as a not previously pre-selected, pre-approved candidate and to the horror of the system, knocked out the pre-approved ones.

Panic has set in, some questions that why people are even allowed to vote and the fake party lines are abandoned, traditional supporters of the Rep flavour of “democracy” lining up behind Clinton, who would have disqualified long time ago, if anyone else would have left standing from the pre-approved pool.

#71 Dean Meadow Larkin on 08.31.16 at 10:07 pm

Play the percentages, sell everything tomorrow morning and buy it all back Oct 1, the chances of buying lower are in your favor!

#72 Butcher on 08.31.16 at 10:08 pm

The Donald will win in November by less than 1%.

#73 Julie K. on 08.31.16 at 10:17 pm

Trump is killing it tonight in Phoenix.

He is on message, confident and surprisingly lucid delivering his proposed Immigration Policy. Big tough talk. Promising to clean-up criminal aliens starting day one will resonate – loudly.

Markets are going to be especially surprised come November.

#74 Smoking Man on 08.31.16 at 10:24 pm

Pisses me off, everyone chirping Garth. He’s was wrong. He diden’t see it.

Not sucking up Garth.

But this is one of the only free speech zones in the world where realy intellectual people trade beliefs and arguments.

Takes a rebal to appreciate a rebel.

Balanced investment dose not lose in long bet, Shifty returns yeah from a Gambling man’s perspective.

But shit. This is home to me. And whenever I see you getting cheap shoted.

Pisses me off…

But you let the opinions flow….

Only one Garth in the world with such thick skin..
Don’t change.

And by the way your an asshole.

#75 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.31.16 at 10:26 pm

# 63 Victor V

From the article you linked:

“Instead of an immediate crash, Canadians should be anticipating a gradual collapse in its housing segment, especially since almost all mortgages in the country do not permit delinquent payers to just walk away.”

The house pumper who wrote this obviously doesn’t know much about the US experience.

In the US, some states allow delinquent payers to walk away while other states don’t allow it.

Some states that were recourse crashed and some states that were non-recourse crashed.

I’ve written about this several times.

It’s always entertaining to read “news” articles by house humpers who insist that the US is the only other country on the plant.

Ireland, Iceland, Spain, Italy, Japan, etc. also experienced housing market crashes. Indeed there have been at least 50 over the past 40 years around the world.

But… Canada is different because a mortgage broker said so.

#76 Bucky on 08.31.16 at 10:35 pm

Predictions are hard, especially about the future (YB).

Have a little cash on hand, let’s see what happens.

#77 Smoking Man on 08.31.16 at 10:42 pm

Fellow blog dogs.

The confessions of yesterday.. Are you not worried about CRA putting your confession into a data base.

Oh I put some in mine..

Female 35, single, net worth 2 Million. After 35 if you don’t have an idiot in your life who adores you in your prime, it’s game over after that. Be on your toes.

Equally is so over rated..

#78 Allan on 08.31.16 at 10:43 pm

Remember when all the Globalist talking heads were telling us how horrible it would be if Britain left the EU?

#79 Smoking Man on 08.31.16 at 11:15 pm

I told you dogs that faze 5 of Trump would show.

Say crazy shit, free MSN coverage win the GOP with nothing down.

Then in the final stretch. The rasist wink to each other. He’s just doing the Mexican had shake to get the Hispanic vote. Hispanics in usa are celebrity worshippers like every other idiot.

I think he did it tonight.

Trump’s a good man.

Illegal imagination suppres labour rates by flooding the market with product.

Everything is a market…

When the three leg stol of balance in between Corp earnings, labour, and productivity are off centre.
The stool false down.

Dont know we’re I’m going with this.. JD just kicked in hard.

Good night.

#80 Mark M. on 08.31.16 at 11:20 pm

Once again Garth is calling for higher rates when it’s becoming increasingly clear the Fed’s next move is a rate cut.

It doesn’t matter what Friday’s jobs numbers are or how much talking the “really smart people” at the Fed engage in, they won’t hike rates at all this year.

Not three or four rate hikes as was originally predicted here. Not two hikes as was alluded to here a couple months back. Not the one time Garth and his team are calling for now. None.

That economy is a bubble, worse than 2008, and it’s addicted to cheap money. There is no way it’s ending until the bond market says it’s ending.

Imagine, the Dow is at record highs and yet corporate profits have been falling for the last 5 quarters. We hear nothing from Garth about this clear sign of a bubble.

When the bubble bursts, the explanations provided here will be legendary.

And just to save The American the trouble, yes I know our economy blows too, but it’s you guys who do all the pretending.

#81 Winterpeg on 08.31.16 at 11:25 pm

Now, having said all of that, you should know this: there’s only one month of the year since 1928 when stock markets have given a median negative return. And that month starts on Thursday. But now you know what to do. GT
So a plunk (even if it’s smallish) create some buying opportunities in September(?)

#82 Bankish on 08.31.16 at 11:34 pm

I’m all in Canadian Bank Stocks and it’s up $150,000 so far this year. I will stick to the banks for the foreseeable future unless something dramatic changes.
If interest rates rise I will buy insurance companies.

#83 b riding dumb on 08.31.16 at 11:46 pm

Smoking man watching trump today I thought to myself holly sharts he has everyone fouled. He may be the nectolites or whatever you call it ring leader of understand the herd. He looked like a presidential genuios. I hate the man but today I have all the respect in the world for him. After all the crap splurred about mexico, mecixans. He shows up at the heart and door steps of the office of the president of mexico and tells talks face to face and in the press conference after comes across strong and like he started a business deal with the respect of his counterpart. I heard two people call day one trump will be president, smoking man and a alcholic DINK phycoligist guy I play hockey with. Tonight I believe you where both right way back then. Repect. And may god be with us on the year ahead!

#84 Prairie person on 08.31.16 at 11:48 pm

Shipping industry economics have deteriorated. Charter rates for medium-sized container ships have dropped from around $26,000 a day in 2010 to $13,000 per day now, according to data from shipping consultancy Clarkson.

Container rates from Shanghai to the U.S west coast have more than halved since then, from around $2,000 per 40-foot container in January 2010 to $596 per 40-foot box last week, data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows. –Reuters

Something wicked this way comes.

#85 Frank on 08.31.16 at 11:50 pm

300 listings expire in Vancouver tonight. This brings inventory back under 9K (low in spring was 6K, average for Sept is 12K, last correction in 2009 was 20K).

It looks like the market has ground to a halt. Fewer sales but equally few listings. No one is sure what to do. There will need to be an event to push things one way or the other.

#86 Jim on 09.01.16 at 12:05 am

Trump will win. Then the money masters will crash the markets out of spite.

#87 chapter 9 on 09.01.16 at 12:07 am

#73 Julie K.
Trump is killing it tonight in Phoenix

What you are hearing is the remake of the McCarran-
Walters Act/1952 which allows the president to suspend entry of aliens that pose a security threat or are detrimental to the US.
“Democratic” President Jimmy Carter utilized the same legislation in 1979 to deport 15,000 Iranians and cancel 7,000 visas.

#88 Jim on 09.01.16 at 12:09 am

To get rich requires capitalism.
To get really rich requires socialism.
To get filthy stinking rich requires communism.

#89 For those about to flop... on 09.01.16 at 12:11 am

Here have a chart.

The person that posted this noted the recovery each time is getting steeper and shorter.

I said nothing…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/a/7xxdV

#90 For those about to flop... on 09.01.16 at 12:20 am

What about this bad boy?

A lot of it is a mirror image.

Or is that a mirage…

http://imgur.com/a/UBhPh

#91 understood by few on 09.01.16 at 12:40 am

#53 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.31.16 at 8:41 pm

Sales of detached houses were down 23% month-over-month across Greater Victoria. It’s apparent this is part of a trend that began after April.

—————————

Erm.. yeah, so sales are down, but so is inventory. You can’t look at one number without the other. In July sales/listing ratio was 86% (iirc) and it looks like August will end up around mid to high 70s (currently 75% for the month). That is still a crazy seller’s market. Inventory is below 3 months (2.4ish). Again, crazy seller’s market.

Are sales down a bunch month over month? Yes… just like every pretty much every August. The key is it’s a record August despite lower sales. More sales than last August and a record year in sales, also lowest inventory for August.. as in ever.

Will prices drop at some point? Yes. They always do. Will it be September like you predicted beginning of July? (beginning of July you said Vic prices would drop within 2 months). No, it won’t. Inventory needs to ramp up quite a bit to increase the inventory. Historically Victoria has been a good deal at around 9-10 months inventory or more. It takes a long time to build that much inventory. My guess would be at least a year even if listings start ramping up.

Oh and your precious Teranet reported July HPI was up 14.7% YoY. Funny how you stop quoting Teranet when it doesn’t support your pov.

I don’t think prices will increase over the fall in Victoria, but I do think they’ll hold until Spring (barring any kind of financial event in Canada). Time will tell.

#92 jay on 09.01.16 at 1:08 am

Here is more evidence of Chrusty Clarke and Junior’s incompetence.40 student’s lining up for rental suite while Junior is in China pimping Canada out for more student’s.Unbelievable!!! http://www.news1130.com/2016/08/31/vancouver-student-housing-crunch-hits-harder-than-stack-of-textbooks/

#93 Braj on 09.01.16 at 1:36 am

#68 Smoking Man on 08.31.16 at 9:56 pm
One hour into a drunk… No buzz. No creative thoughts. Nothing good or bad to say.

What a drag it is getting old…

Best years are in the rear view mirror..

Thinking of starting up a Lunatic Forex Training School.

By a bar, drink all day, let my students drink all day.
Charge admittance, 5 dollar cover charge just to watch Smokey do his thing on the big screen.

Who’s in….. Any crazes put there.


Hell yea.

#94 Jay Currie on 09.01.16 at 1:55 am

Trump is within spitting distance of Hilly going into the real election which starts after Labour Day. Hilly is doing one public campaign event a week. Trump is everywhere.

My own sense is it will be a landslide: the only question is which side of the mountain goes. Will Hilly get out her unenthusiastic vote? Will Donald bring out people who have not voted for years?

At some point in the next six weeks America will make up its mind – the crook or the blowback? Not an attractive choice but it will be made.

Hilly wins and the markets will be relieved. Trump wins and the markets will, like the rest of us go, WTF?

Interesting times.

#95 T-Ball Juniors Nemesis on 09.01.16 at 2:05 am

Canada is in recession, Junior T-Ball , our fairy dust Peter Pan PM is traveling with his personal photographer. Dopey Justin doesn’t get it…a recession is real for people without an inheritance. Not everyone can coast by as a baby sitter playing silly with kindergarteners. By failing to act on the countries economy the Liberals have driven millions into poverty in the year the’ve been in office. Nice work Liberal voters. Welcome to 100 percent taxation. Obama had the luxury of a massive US economy to make his pathetic calls on “green economy”…trudeau’s sheepish following looks nothing but foolish.

#96 millenial82 on 09.01.16 at 2:08 am

68 Smoking Man on 08.31.16 at 9:56 pm

One hour into a drunk… No buzz. No creative thoughts. Nothing good or bad to say.

What a drag it is getting old…

Best years are in the rear view mirror..

Thinking of starting up a Lunatic Forex Training School.

By a bar, drink all day, let my students drink all day.
Charge admittance, 5 dollar cover charge just to watch Smokey do his thing on the big screen.

Who’s in….. Any crazes put there.

————————————————————–

Sure, I’m in. Session start at 9pm sharp with a shot of JD and a glass of wine? I’ll be in the back chirping you.

#97 Freedom First on 09.01.16 at 2:24 am

#74 Smoking Man

Touching tribute. 1 of a kind.

#98 Freedom First on 09.01.16 at 2:41 am

#75 VREU

You’re a tenacious woman. And you’re also right.

Canadians as well as many other countries world wide have been RE & consumerism stupid beyond belief. Overall debt levels people get themselves into are a major sign of how sick our society has become. World wide. Fear, Greed, and Ego.

Thank God I’m me.

#99 Karma on 09.01.16 at 2:58 am

#66 Terry on 08.31.16 at 9:33 pm
““Trump is toast.” Seriously Garth???

Your really out of touch on this one……in my opinion.

You seem to be losing your way Garth slanting more to the left as the year progresses. Liberalization, Globalization, too much borrowing, cheap money and too much Central bank intervention creating unnecessary inflation are what is messing up this world today.
Too many people think the problems that created the 08\09 crisis have been fixed……….they have not! The bad debts are still there impairing the true vale of those zombie companies. Caveat emptor everyone because another crisis will soon be on our doorstep…..the problems have not been solved or cleared away by a long shot! Yellen, Bernanke and their wrecking crew have got it all wrong. What the financial world really needs is a strong dose of DEFLATION that only strong Recessions or a Depression can create. Were all heading for another brick wall everyone……….mathematically it’s inevitable.

Good luck!”

——————————————

Trump’s got a low probability of winning the election, although it has risen this past week or so. Check out http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
to see Adam Silver’s forecast. Your politics may not want to believe it, but there’s plenty of people in the US who do not like Trump as a person or brand and have made up their minds. The middle of the spectrum people likely would rather go with the status quo than take a big risk on a firecracker personality like Trump.

On another note, your overconfidence bias is very impressive: “Yellen, Bernanke and their wrecking crew have got it all wrong. What the financial world really needs is a strong dose of DEFLATION that only strong Recessions or a Depression can create. Were all heading for another brick wall everyone……….mathematically” gave me a good chuckle, not because it’s inherently incorrect but that you think that you’re smarter than so many others. Deflation may help some people, but it will likely hurt more, hence they are fighting it and Garth warns about it. And no, “Were [sic]” not “mathematically” heading for a brick wall. Maybe some people are because they’re overleveraged and may default, but someone will always buy up those assets of the defaulted party and likely put them to better use than the previous owner. That’s the history of capitalism. It’s not changing any time soon.

#100 Karma on 09.01.16 at 3:13 am

Garth,

I was chatting with a friend who’s a mortgage specialist at a Big Five bank today. He told me that on his team, spread across Greater Vancouver, about 45% of his team concentrate solely on foreign buyers (i.e. now the tax will be applicable to these clients), and about 40% cater to “New immigrants” (i.e. less than 5 years in Canada and likely their first home). The remaining 15%, of which he is a part of, services the banks’ other customers (i.e. bank walk-ins, refinancings, renewals, etc).

He’s told several of his friends this and very few people actually believe that his team is that skewed towards newcomers and foreigners. The reason I’m sharing this is because the current business model for this particular Big Five bank, and probably others, will likely need to be altered over the next little while as the foreign buyer tax sinks in. And perhaps those fat margins on these types of mortgages (newcomers and foreigners) will likely get a bit skinnier over the longer term as banks get more competitive on a shrinking pie.

Perhaps the real losers in this situation will be the local credit unions…

#101 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 09.01.16 at 3:34 am

#137 Smoking Man on 08.31.16 at 2:26 pm

Truly, you have a dizzying intellect…
………

I second that. Mark should study what happened to the USD after the housing crash

He’s used to being wrong. Just like all the USDCAD, deflation, gold and YYZ/YVR RE price stuff he posts. Hard to be more wrong actually …

#102 Fortune500 on 09.01.16 at 4:42 am

The numbers for Vancouver are out

http://www.vancitycondoguide.com/detached-housing-market-august/

#103 Koshy Alex on 09.01.16 at 6:42 am

“Oil in the mid-forties should be twenty bucks more expensive in a year or so 

Meanwhile global growth, believe it or not, is plodding along at about 2%”

Every one is now predicting where oil prices are going to be by next year, last week your colleague wrote that his regression model showed him that oil will be higher next year.

I don’t have any regression models with me, but I think oil will definitely half of what it is now by next year.

Take the case of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulla Economic City (KAEC), they are planning to spend 100 bn dollars to build this city and this will be another empty city like the Chinese have been building to show that their economy is growing.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35491061

Will Saudi Arabia’s plans for a new city be successful?

To do this and to keep fighting those proxy wars and for the rulers to steal to maintain a lavish lifestyle they will have to keep on pumping more oil. Also to keep their fast breeding population who is so used to living on handouts from the government happy they will have to keep on pumping more and more oil. This is not just Saudi Arabia, all states in middle East has to do this. Then how this market going to balance is beyond me.

This game of global growth is being kept alive by the massive central bank money printing and creation of debt. My models don’t show this ending well.

#104 Ace Goodheart on 09.01.16 at 6:50 am

Re: “In 1990 a monthly payment of $3,100 carried a mortgage of $300,000. Today for the same bucks you can carry $750,000. See why houses have more than doubled in value? And why they can decrease in exactly the same fashion?”

If interest rates go up by 1%, it would bankrupt the Province of Ontario. I have already done the math on here on this problem. The Federal finances don’t look much better. Low interest rates are a symptom of runaway government debt, which at this point can only be cured by massive amounts of money printing. We’re talking Federal bail outs using manufactured cash. When that happens, look for anything (like a house, for example) to increase in value exponentially (because you can’t print houses – though you might soon be able to 3D print condos).

RE: Oil – the low price is a long term problem, caused by a little invention that we like to call “fracking”. When all of that “fracked” oil came online a few years ago, I saw the collapse of Alberta happening. It’s just so cheap and there’s so much of it. Mind you, we do need oil and it will always have value, but if they are “fracking” it out of the ground at the pace they are doing right now (Americans always, always, always over produce, it is their one great downfall), then it will be cheap for a while.

#105 Zen Headspace on 09.01.16 at 6:52 am

Regarding all the bold predictions being promulgated out there:

“Those who know do not speak. Those who speak do not know.”
― Lao Tzu, Tao Teh Ching

#106 jess on 09.01.16 at 7:25 am

64 Million Americans struggled to pay medical bills in 2014.
More than 11 million people will take on additional credit card debt this year to cover mounting medical expenses.
Nearly 15 million people will deplete their savings to cover medical bills.
Another 10 million will be unable to pay for basic necessities because of these bills.
Some 43 million Americans have delinquent medical debt on their credit reports – one out of five.
For 15 million people, medical debt is the only debt they have in these reports

=
‘sick care’ system
Medicare Fraud Strike Force Charges 243 Individuals for Approximately $712 million in False Billing

It’s the largest arrest in Fraud Strike Force history.

…”announced today a nationwide sweep led by the Medicare Fraud Strike Force in 17 districts, resulting in charges against 243 individuals, including 46 doctors, nurses and other licensed medical professionals, for their alleged participation in Medicare fraud schemes involving approximately $712 million in false billings. In addition, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) also suspended a number of providers using its suspension authority as provided in the Affordable Care Act. This coordinated takedown is the largest in Strike Force history, both in terms of the number of defendants charged and loss amount.”

#107 jess on 09.01.16 at 7:28 am

ITT the latest

Pending and recent federal and state government investigations and actions regarding for-profit colleges
Compiled by David Halperin, Attorney, Washington DC

UPDATED 08-25-16
http://www.republicreport.org/2014/law-enforcement-for-profit-colleges/

#108 TurnerNation on 09.01.16 at 7:40 am

Kanada is doomed to blandness.

Cara Operations just now bought Elephant & castle and others’ pubs; previously, Toronto’s ‘Landing’ restaurant chain, the iconic St Hubert.

Pretty sure all this food comes frozen from the same truck, is fried up by 16 year old then we are paying $30 for a burger + beer ( with taxes and tip in).

Kanadian blandness we love it. Like mushrooms we are kept in the dark and fed sht.

Cara:
Restaurant Operations Edit
Cara Air Terminal Restaurant Division (Sold to GateGroup in 2010)
Harvey’s
Swiss Chalet
Kelsey’s Neighbourhood Bar & Grill
Milestones Grill and Bar
Montana’s BBQ & Bar
East Side Mario’s
Prime Pubs
Bier Markt
Landing Group
Casey’s Grill • Bar
New York Fries[10

#109 Hogtown Indebted on 09.01.16 at 8:05 am

How far do we have to go before a correction?

This morning my jaw dropped a little more, listening to CBC radio 1 Toronto.

The speaker was Michael Hlinka, a regular “financial comentator” who spouts mostly banalities twice a week to what one would presume is a somewhat higher educated group of listeners.

This morning, he spoke about the housing market.

For Torontonians, he said, “the good thing is you don’t have to worry about TFSAs or RRSPs….you can just draw down on your home’s value after you retire…”

So there you have it. An alleged financial adviser/professional saying that a single asset strategy makes perfect sense. Look away, nothing happening here.

What is bizarre is that this guy must be sixty or so and has lived through 1981 and 1990 already.

Have you heard this guy, Garth?

Not if I can help it. — Garth

#110 Trump, Zero on 09.01.16 at 8:24 am

A year ago Trump was seen as a clown, with no chance, Zerohedge was considered fringe.

Then upsetting the status quo in Europe by dropping out of the blue unimaginable amount of refugees, releasing Wikileaks that show the true crookedness of Clintons, their “foundation” Trump is killing it, Brexit happens, mainstream journalism and media credibility goes to zero, ZHedge goes mainstream.

What used to be conspiration theories, turn out to be reality, including manufacturing crises and wars as a vehicle to eliminate civil liberties, privacy, freedom of speech and opinions, militarizing police, governing by non-elected global bodies to circumvent traditional voting system, democracy.

#111 jess on 09.01.16 at 8:30 am

Ireland
Special Purpose Vehicles and vultures
Section 110 entities, named after the section of the 1997 tax legislation

“Transactions involving a Section 110 company may be structured to be tax neutral”, because these Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), “can utilise various techniques to strip profit out on its underlying investments and can reduce or eliminate the tax it is required to pay”.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colette-browne/vulture-funds-are-feasting-taxfree-on-carcass-of-our-property-crash-35005936.html

background
http://www.mondaq.com/ireland/x/201512/offshore+financial+centres/Ireland+as+a+Domicile+for+SPVs
============
Joseph Stiglitz says: ‘You got jobs at the cost of stealing revenues from other countries’
“Apple is claiming that the income was associated with activities, that’s why they said they could book it to an Irish subsidiary. Can they book it to a subsidiary for activities not occurring in Ireland? The issue is, if they book it to Ireland should there be an Irish tax?
“That’s what the issue is. They were booking it to an Irish subsidiary and they were not paying taxes.
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/joseph-stiglitz-says-ireland-should-not-appeal-apple-ruling-1.2774184

leprechaun economics?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-13/-leprechaun-economics-earn-ireland-ridicule-443-million-bill

#112 eddy on 09.01.16 at 8:34 am

Sept. 1 1939.
Germany invades Poland.
5:00 am

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.01.16 at 8:55 am

Trump-zilla’s foray south of “The wall”( Cue Pink Floyd) was merely a show of how he can pretend to be ‘presidential”.
Nothing more.
The president of Mexico , languishing in his own polls, gets to “lecture” the Donald but the photos of him shaking Trumps hand will do nothing for his poll numbers.

This pathetic pr campaign fools no one.

….and The Donald has 9 more weeks of oral stupidity to further sink the SS Trump.
All while Hillary just sits back and lets those poll numbers inexorably climb ever higher……….
Thanks Donald.

#114 Big Bill Edmonds on 09.01.16 at 8:58 am

Always have a bit of cash in your back pocket come September 1st. Sale pricing. Why not play the percentages? Enjoy Wholesale pricing!

#115 Capt. Serious on 09.01.16 at 9:35 am

Kanada is doomed to blandness.

So go to a local restaurant. They need your business. There are many to choose from.

Maybe it would be more accurate to say Canadians are bland because they prefer to live in suburbs where mostly the choices are Cara restaurants. Hey, they’ve got McMansions, what do they need good food for?

#116 Mr. Frugal on 09.01.16 at 9:38 am

Apparently Tim Cook is not a big fan of the EU. Brexit was a genius move on the part of the U.K.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/01/apple-ceo-tim-cook-says-giant-irish-tax-bill-is-politically-motivated-and-anti-us.html

#117 Yanniel on 09.01.16 at 9:41 am

Does this portfolio sucks too? Thanks.

Growth:
—————
VXC – 38%
XIC – 17%
XRE – 5%

Fixed income:
————–
ZRR – 12%
VSC – 4%
CHB – 4%
XPF – 20%

#118 junkuet on 09.01.16 at 9:44 am

Bay Street has handed investors a 12% gift. Garth”

Garth, no time to run the numbers, but due to the drop of the loonie versus USD, for international investors, Bay Street has been in the red…..soon all Canucks will measure their (lack of) wealth in USD , as RE plummets, and import costs skyrocket

I live in C$. — Garth

#119 james on 09.01.16 at 10:16 am

#83 b riding dumb on 08.31.16 at 11:46 pm

Smoking man watching trump today I thought to myself holly sharts he has everyone fouled. He may be the nectolites or whatever you call it ring leader of understand the herd. He looked like a presidential genuios. I hate the man but today I have all the respect in the world for him. After all the crap splurred about mexico, mecixans. He shows up at the heart and door steps of the office of the president of mexico and tells talks face to face and in the press conference after comes across strong and like he started a business deal with the respect of his counterpart. I heard two people call day one trump will be president, smoking man and a alcholic DINK phycoligist guy I play hockey with. Tonight I believe you where both right way back then. Repect. And may god be with us on the year ahead!
…………………………………………………………………..
Must be Smoking Man in disguise promoting himself and Trump. Same stupid spelling and grammar. If not then wow there are more of these wackos in Longbranch.

#120 Setting the Record Straight on 09.01.16 at 10:27 am

@80

It would be nice if Turner and Associates would address these issues in a more serious way. Surely it’s no longer enough to just sneer at “Doomers” or refuse to deal with the implications of ZIRP and QE to infinity. M

This is not a corporate web site, so you’ll have to deal with my personal vacuity. Get over yourself. — Garth

#121 Context on 09.01.16 at 10:43 am

Has anyone sold a condo lately in Toronto? A listing will not get an offer unless you cut the price as the greater fools are no more. Do you argue at night as who is to blame for the mess you are in? Did you just get a notice to cough up because the reserve account needs emergency funding? This will cancel your dream vacation now, but there is always the Toronto Island instead. I know you are waiting for the condo to go up in price just one more time; just one more time like the gambler at the casino taking the dice to throw just one more time.

#122 Grantmi on 09.01.16 at 10:52 am

WOW.. USA ISM Manny PMI for Aug. crapped the bed this morning. Expected 52… comes in at 49.4 lowest it’s been since January.

USD dropping… GOLD spiking.. Maybe no Rate increase this month after all. Hello! YELLEN!!! Is anyone in there!!

hhttp://bit.ly/2cfMbck

#123 BOOM! on 09.01.16 at 10:56 am

Did a bit of unofficial polling among people around here. A lot of Trump support out there. Despite what the MSM is reporting, and today are they really doing on the ground inquiry or, relying on purchased data?

While I am no fan or Hillary, I can’t see the dim bulb Trump having the mental acuity to perform. Do I wish Pence as the defacto president, much like Chaney? Hell No! Pence was a ridiculous governor of Indiana, not a place I would wish to live, or the philosophy of any future president I might wish to see.

Most ‘defective’ presidential candidates ever! Makes for interesting times. A central bank clueless, a congress worthless, and a populace joyless. Yes, this is America.

M64WI

#124 rainclouds on 09.01.16 at 11:05 am

http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/voices/real-estate-price-bubble-is-the-work-of-media-not-foreign-money-1085410-1.html

#125 Who luvs ya baby on 09.01.16 at 11:22 am

#122 BOOM! on 09.01.16 at 10:56 am

Did a bit of unofficial polling among people around here. A lot of Trump support out there. Despite what the MSM is reporting, and today are they really doing on the ground inquiry or, relying on purchased data?

While I am no fan or Hillary, I can’t see the dim bulb Trump having the mental acuity to perform. Do I wish Pence as the defacto president, much like Chaney? Hell No! Pence was a ridiculous governor of Indiana, not a place I would wish to live, or the philosophy of any future president I might wish to see.

Most ‘defective’ presidential candidates ever! Makes for interesting times. A central bank clueless, a congress worthless, and a populace joyless. Yes, this is America.

M64WI
—–

We will build a great wall.. it will be beautiful. Invest in concrete companies!!

Coulter is in love………….

Ann Coulter ‏@AnnCoulter 13h13 hours ago
I hear Churchill had a nice turn of phrase, but Trump’s immigration speech is the most magnificent speech ever given.

#126 Grantmi on 09.01.16 at 11:23 am

#123 rainclouds on 09.01.16 at 11:05 am

real-estate-price-bubble-is-the-work-of-media-not-foreign-money

What would you expect from a website that pushes Mortgages.. that’s really objective.

About National Mortgage News and SourceMedia
National Mortgage News is an award-winning comprehensive digital information resource serving the entire residential mortgage industry, including depositories, nonbank lenders and servicers, brokerage firms, vendors and regulators. In addition to providing news analysis and perspective, NMN convenes industry participants to provide insight on topics including regulation, compliance, technology and loss mitigation.

#127 Eks dee Sipal on 09.01.16 at 11:25 am

#84 Prairie person

Hanjin went into receivership yesterday. World’s seventh largest carrier (South Korean).

#108 TurnerNation – First of all, you eat out way too much. Agree on the blandness. The chains you listed all sell the same crap, even if they were separately owned.

#128 Paul on 09.01.16 at 11:26 am

I learn something here everyday

va·cu·i·ty
vaˈkyo͞oətē,və-/
noun
#119 Setting the Record Straight on 09.01.16 at 10:27 am

@80

It would be nice if Turner and Associates would address these issues in a more serious way. Surely it’s no longer enough to just sneer at “Doomers” or refuse to deal with the implications of ZIRP and QE to infinity. M

This is not a corporate web site, so you’ll have to deal with my personal vacuity. Get over yourself. — Garth

noun: vacuity

1.
lack of thought or intelligence; empty-headedness.
“full of excitement, I listened to my first student sermon – only to be taken aback by its vacuity”
2.
empty space; emptiness.

#129 Grantmi on 09.01.16 at 11:29 am

Yup! US economy is GREAT!

WALLY MART cutting 7,000 back office yobs!! Hot off the presses….

Booooyahhhhhh!!

Move along! Nothing to see here!

#130 pBrasseur on 09.01.16 at 11:32 am

Of all comments about the stock market those that make the smallest sense to me are market timer comments such as August is this or September is that or election year usually does this and so on…

The medias and blogs are full of this crap, including this blog apparently, but the first thing you should do while you are learning about investing properly in stocks is to ignore such comments, they are simply a waste of time.

Yes, history is bunk. Nothing to learn. — Garth

#131 Context on 09.01.16 at 11:40 am

I was talking with an American last night about the election which is really a circus. He said forget who will be President or you will miss the birdie. Concentrate on the VP candidates because someone is going to be history in short order. History? I asked what does that mean and he replied before or after the election someone will be going down.

#132 pBrasseur on 09.01.16 at 11:47 am

Yes, history is bunk. Nothing to learn. — Garth

Sure there is a lot to learn, but this kind of knowledge is intellectual junk for the ignorant.

#133 For those about to flop... on 09.01.16 at 12:01 pm

#122 BOOM! on 09.01.16 at 10:56 am
Did a bit of unofficial polling among people around here. A lot of Trump support out there. Despite what the MSM is reporting, and today are they really doing on the ground inquiry or, relying on purchased data?

While I am no fan or Hillary, I can’t see the dim bulb Trump having the mental acuity to perform. Do I wish Pence as the defacto president, much like Chaney? Hell No! Pence was a ridiculous governor of Indiana, not a place I would wish to live, or the philosophy of any future president I might wish to see.

Most ‘defective’ presidential candidates ever! Makes for interesting times. A central bank clueless, a congress worthless, and a populace joyless. Yes, this is America.

M64WI

///////////////////////////////////

HeyBoom,remember what I wrote about a recent trip to Washington state ?

There were Trump signs everywhere,only seen one Hillary sign,something was not right.

My favourite one I saw and I wanted to take a photo for the boss ,was a Trump sign on some guys front lawn and then a few feet over he had another sign”In God we trust”

I laughed my bum off ,but there was nowhere to pull over to take a photo.

Guess you had to be there…

M42BC

#134 Aggregator on 09.01.16 at 12:19 pm

#117 junkuet – Garth, no time to run the numbers, but due to the drop of the loonie versus USD, for international investors, Bay Street has been in the red.

I'm glad to see some people know how to measure real returns. When I seen Ryan Lewenza's comment that the USD/CAD is a wash over the long term, I just laughed. If an advisor isn't using international benchmarks he ain't getting one penny from me. Simple as that.

#135 Bram on 09.01.16 at 12:38 pm

#102 Fortune500 on 09.01.16 at 4:42 am
The numbers for Vancouver are out
http://www.vancitycondoguide.com/detached-housing-market-august/

They are out, and so are the amateur statisticians…
I quote:
It appears the median sales price actually increased to $1,700,000 up from $1,590,000 last month. This is probably because of a couple high end homes which sold and skewed the data.

ha ha ha… the numeracy in this country.
Maybe Canadians ought to be upset about education, not so much houses.

This is not how the median works. A couple high end homes do not skew it. That’s the whole point of using median values instead of mean values.

From now on, everyone without a university degree is forbidden to analyse numbers.
You’re not qualified.
Counts doubly for anyone in the press.

Bram

#136 Context on 09.01.16 at 12:53 pm

#129 pBrasseur:- I just told Santa Claus on you and your no longer in his book. No presents for you at Christmas this year as your history has been erased.

#137 Penny Henny on 09.01.16 at 1:05 pm

For those here who liken Toronto to Chicago.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/09/01/90-murdered-in-chicagos-deadliest-month-in-about-two-decades.html

#138 BOOM! on 09.01.16 at 1:16 pm

The Main Street crowd is for Trump, maybe the Wall Street crowd is for Hillary. I hear a lot of squeezed disgruntled ‘little people’ for Trump.

As for a Wall… remember what Robert Frost said of fences… they keep things out true, but the also keep things IN…also true.

Again it is the least evil of two lessors (sigh). Going off brand this time let the cow chips fall where they may.
I’m so tired of the political ‘poll calls’ where are the great obscene phone calls of yesterday? I feel honored to be the treasurer of the local Alfred E Neuman for president campaign this year. Remember him? The Mad magazine’s ‘what, me worry kid.’ A joke thing, but effective. sort of like the Donald…

#139 BOOM! on 09.01.16 at 1:19 pm

#122 Flopper…

Yes, the Trump / In god we trust sign.

I personally like the one at a local bar,

“In God we Trust…all others pay CASH”

Quite effective.

#140 F.dover on 09.01.16 at 1:23 pm

Looks like a good day to cheer Garth on, what with all of the negativity to his cheerful outlook. So here it comes…

Thanks for all you do to keep the clubhouse door open here. I have been reading here for maybe a year, and commenting for maybe a month, and I dread the day soon that I inheiret some more coinage to manage. Hell I can’t even spell inheiret, let alone care for it. I am all ears.

It’s your site and your ball and you are a good sport, to not take it home with you on days like this. Thank you.

#141 ronh on 09.01.16 at 1:23 pm

Garth, you are not alone anymore.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-01/if-you-own-home-palo-alto-ca-sell-it-now

#142 Context on 09.01.16 at 1:30 pm

Just when I thought all was known the CBC had to spoil my party. Two vacation booking companies that are wholesalers were leasing Toronto condos from their owners. These were displayed worldwide on the internet as hotel accommodations. It must be a new normal all over Toronto that condos are the latest hotels with party people and drunks.

#143 Smoking Man on 09.01.16 at 1:31 pm

James, Hillary is Wynee x 10….in scamsville.

How can anyone with two brain cells support her. She’s and Obama have done nothing for blacks or Hispanics. There just little peons that vote for Democrats cause they talk the talk and do nothing.

One your over schooled brain will realize how corrupted to the core lefties are.

It won’t end well for your kids, or grandchildren. The lefties are spending their money..

#144 NoName on 09.01.16 at 1:47 pm

Kids who qualify and kids that dont qualify for Kanada child benefit, arent they all just a kids, guess not?

“While 91 per cent of Canadian families are eligible for benefits this year, that will fall to 86 per cent by 2021, and will continue to decline as some families see their income levels rise high enough to no longer qualify for the benefit, the report says.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pbo-canada-child-benefit-buying-power-1.3744308

#145 WallOfWorry on 09.01.16 at 2:15 pm

This must have been the cause of the condo boom:

http://www.macleans.ca/macleans.ca/economy/angry-investors-seek-class-action-against-high-profile-seller-of-risky-syndicated-mortgages//angry-investors-seek-class-action-against-high-profile-seller-of-risky-syndicated-mortgages/

#146 Doug in London on 09.01.16 at 2:59 pm

There could be a negative return on stocks this month you say? There’s a new feature on Google Translate to translate financial and business terms to ordinary everyday English. When I entered negative return, I got back buying opportunity! Bring it on I say, bring it on!!!!!!! What’s wrong with having Black Friday or Boxing Day sales early this year?

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.01.16 at 3:11 pm

@#111 eddy

“Sept. 1 1939.
Germany invades Poland.
5:00 am”
******************************************

Old news. We won. Poland got over it.

#148 james on 09.01.16 at 3:12 pm

#142 Smoking Man on 09.01.16 at 1:31 pm
James, Hillary is Wynee x 10….in scamsville.
How can anyone with two brain cells support her. She’s and Obama have done nothing for blacks or Hispanics. There just little peons that vote for Democrats cause they talk the talk and do nothing.
One your over schooled brain will realize how corrupted to the core lefties are.
It won’t end well for your kids, or grandchildren. The lefties are spending their money.
……………………………………………………………………
Hey dip shit did I say I supported Hillery? Look back at my posting, nope, nada, zip. But I can sure as hell tell you it appears that everyone with only two brain cells has been supporting Trump. The rest of us with all of our faculties and the billions of brain cells that are in good health are sitting on the side waiting to see if the real slim shady will please stand up!
Why are you not posting some garbage from your casino broadcasting lounge?

#149 For those about to flop... on 09.01.16 at 3:31 pm

I just stopped by Donald Trumps Doctors office, and in 5 minutes,while I sat in my limousine he wrote me a note saying whoever wins the election will inherit the sickest stock market of all time…

M42BC

#150 Mark on 09.01.16 at 3:32 pm

Wow WalMark. You really are an obsessed loon. Here’s a few words of advice for you:

Get help

I’ll repeat it just in case you didn’t hear it the first time:

Get help

That is all.

#151 Damifino on 09.01.16 at 3:49 pm

I live in a rental only building in downtown Vancouver. A few months back somebody was subletting a room in their suite for short term rentals on airbnb.

Management twigged and shut it down immediately. (Lots of strangers were coming and going with luggage at all hours etc.)

They almost got themselves evicted. Management had grounds to do so since they were in clear violation of the rental agreement. Sure is tempting for some to make few extra bucks though…

#152 For those about to flop... on 09.01.16 at 3:51 pm

Walmart laying off 7000 workers has got a few headlines but most likely because of Black Friday and the run up to Xmas these people and some will be added back on in the coming months.

You can’t tell me that Walmart couldn’t have keep them on for a month or so til the sausages start to sizzle.

Pretty brutal really…

M42BC

#153 Context on 09.01.16 at 3:53 pm

#144 WallOfWorry:- Once this bubble blows there will be dozens of stories just like this one. The crash during the 1980’s corruption was everywhere with falsified appraisal reports too. You haven’t seen anything yet as this is the Mother Bubble and it will take years to sort out the litigation. For those who have not sold yet sitting on debt waiting for a better day your going to become burnt toast on the way down.

#154 rainclouds on 09.01.16 at 3:57 pm

#125 Grantmi “What would you expect from a website that pushes Mortgages.. that’s really objective.”

Clearly reading comprehension isn’t your strength…the article essentially agrees with GT’s assertion that foreign buyers are a small segment of the total AND the media uncritically repeats the myth, which pumps the market, which sucks in more greater fools.

In any event its interesting to see the cracks developing based on false pretenses and hubris. Cant wit till the finger pointing. RE/Media/Politicians/ Banks/consumers all blaming each other

#155 Victor V on 09.01.16 at 4:00 pm

Prices for Vancouver mansions drop, but realtors argue it’s a blip: ‘If someone wants to live here, they’ll live here’

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/prices-for-vancouver-mansions-drop-but-realtors-argue-its-a-blip-if-someone-wants-to-live-here-theyll-live-here

#156 For those about to flop... on 09.01.16 at 4:08 pm

Hey Crowdie, I think Germany recovered nicely too…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/2tdKR86

#157 Long Branch Apprentice on 09.01.16 at 4:35 pm

Hey James,

Better watch who you call dipshit, dipshit.

Smoking Man is like Willy Wonka, he comes on here with the golden ticket but few will put aside their ego to pick it up.

Besides, everybody knows Gary Johnson will win in a landslide.

#Liberterian

#158 Smoking Man on 09.01.16 at 4:36 pm

147 james on 09.01.16 at 3:12 pm
#142 Smoking Man on 09.01.16 at 1:31 pm
James, Hillary is Wynee x 10….in scamsville.
How can anyone with two brain cells support her. She’s and Obama have done nothing for blacks or Hispanics. There just little peons that vote for Democrats cause they talk the talk and do nothing.
One your over schooled brain will realize how corrupted to the core lefties are.
It won’t end well for your kids, or grandchildren. The lefties are spending their money.
……………………………………………………………………
Hey dip shit did I say I supported Hillery? Look back at my posting, nope, nada, zip. But I can sure as hell tell you it appears that everyone with only two brain cells has been supporting Trump. The rest of us with all of our faculties and the billions of brain cells that are in good health are sitting on the side waiting to see if the real slim shady will please stand up!
Why are you not posting some garbage from your casino broadcasting lounge?
……

Dip shit? Why can’t a conservative have a civil dialog without the name calling from lefties.

There is alot on anger in your posts. Triggered so easily…

Do you want a PhD Herdonomics master to diagnosis your problems?

#159 Victor V on 09.01.16 at 4:45 pm

Calgary condo prices fall to levels similar to 2013, with sales at 13-year low

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/calgary-condo-prices-fall-to-levels-similar-to-2013-with-sales-at-13-year-low

CALGARY — The divide between detached houses and other segments of Calgary’s depressed real-estate market continued to widen last month.

August numbers released Thursday by the Calgary Real Estate Board shows the estimated price for a typical condo in the city was down 0.76 per cent from July to $274,900, with prices now down 7.1 per cent from a year ago.

#160 Victoria Real Estate Update on 09.01.16 at 4:45 pm

# 91 understood by few

Once again you present false information about what I’ve written in the past.

Try providing a link to the post where the comment was written as proof that what you say is true.

More lies. More fabrication. More realtor BS.

SALES OF DETACHED HOMES FALL DRAMATICALLY ACROSS GREATER VICTORIA FROM APRIL TO JULY (Normally busy months)

The difference in detached sales (plus/minus) from April to July in 2015 is compared to the difference in 2016 for the areas listed below:

Area. . . . . . . . % Difference (2015). . . . % Difference (2016)
Victoria. . . . . . . . . . – 33 %. . . . . . . . . . . . – 42 %
Oak Bay. . . . . . . . . .- 13 %. . . . . . . . . . . . – 67 %
Saanich East. . . . . . .- 14 %. . . . . . . . . . . . – 35 %
Saanich West. . . . . . .+ 8 %. . . . . . . . . . . . – 35 %
North Saanich. . . . . . + 21 %. . . . . . . . . . . . – 15 %

(Source: Victoria’s R/E board)

The results are shocking and quite telling – something happened in Greater Victoria after April of this year. Sales of detached houses have plummeted. That didn’t happen in 2015.

Sales of detached houses for the month of April were 50% higher than last April’s total.

Then something changed in Victoria.

July’s total was only 3% higher than last July’s total.

#161 understood by few on 09.01.16 at 5:19 pm

#159 Victoria Real Estate Update

More lies. More fabrication. More realtor BS.

——————

The ad hominem is tiresome and really doesn’t help your position. As mentioned many times NOT A REALTOR. I’m in tech (as with many house owners in Vic). Speaking of which, tech is growing in Vic. Look what that did to once affordable Portland. Rents are creeping up, rental vacancy is down, house prices are up. Portland used to be a great deal for a cool town.

I can’t be bothered to search through July posts, but you said “prices will drop within the next 2 months”. If you can’t remember saying that, oh well. I just remember seeing it and laughing.

Oh and this month’s totals are in (Marko Juras posts them to House Hunt Victoria in the comments): 79% sales/listing ratio. So August was still a seller’s market. The sky isn’t falling.. yet.

How could sales “plummet” but it still be a hot market? Because listings plummeted. People can’t buy if there is nothing to buy. This is the lowest inventory for August.. ever.

During your crazy plummet in sales the sales listing ratio stayed in the 80% range and months inventory stayed under 3. How did that happen? Easy, listings dropped at the same rate as sales. Again, you can’t look at number of units sold in a vacuum and expect it to be meaningful or support your permabear pov.

Sales in Vancouver dropping is meaningful because it is resulting in increased inventory (less people buying, as many or more listing).

Good luck on your wait.

#162 april on 09.01.16 at 5:23 pm

#154 – I wouldn’t be too quick to believe anything realtors say as regards what’s really going on in real estate. Remember the commission is their bread and butter.

#163 Bob on 09.01.16 at 5:44 pm

I wouldn’t read too much into these numbers since they are averages and the sales volume was low… but hmmm…

http://www.yattermatters.com/2016/09/government-fiddle-burns-vancouver-real-estate/

#164 Ronaldo on 09.01.16 at 6:13 pm

#161 april on 09.01.16 at 5:23 pm

”#154 – I wouldn’t be too quick to believe anything realtors say as regards what’s really going on in real estate. Remember the commission is their bread and butter.”

Won’t matter to the top realtors as they will be making it on the way down as well. They may have to recruit some more realtors to handle the flood of sales once prices correct 50%.

#165 westcdn on 09.01.16 at 6:47 pm

I commented a few days back that I thought there was a very good chance of a Fed ¼ point raise on September 21. I think it will be a one and done for 2016. I am preparing for a lousy September ending and early October by building up some cash reserves. I won’t do much and will likely ride out the volatility. Depending how things shake out by the end of October, I will be a buyer or pay down debt. I am guessing the Bank of Canada will not follow until after a second ¼ point raise by the Fed. I don’t believe a weaker loonie makes Canada a stronger country. I have to trust Poloz’s decisions are made with achieving the best results for Canadians despite my concerns as a pleb on the ground.

I agree with this economist’s view that the Fed is excessively accommodative and there is room for rate hikes. He likes the future outlook for American banks which would rub on Canadian ones.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2016/8/26/yellen-will-lift-rates

Gold companies did well today. I don’t understand why. I will have to take a closer look at the sector.

#166 Innumeracy Chick No More on 09.01.16 at 8:37 pm

Ok so I know this is a dumb question….but I would like some feedback.

What is the best way to hold US Equities? Right now I have VUN in my RRSP. Does it make any sense to buy SPY or IWM? I don’t have any USD in my account. :( sadly