The divide

STUDENT modified

Shot yesterday at the CIBC Branch in Waterloo University at  the Student Life Centre, by Blog Dog Deippak.

 

A few days after saying housing affordability on the West Coast was being “crushed,” the country’s largest bank reported elephantine profits. On Wednesday RBC revealed it’s been making about $1 billion a month, up 17% from last year, and enough to once again increase the dividend it hands over to stockholders every three months.

It was the second bank in as many days to shrug off energy, housing and slow-growth issues and announce boffo earnings – and happened at the same time oil prices were being creamed on world markets. The profit romp also comes as the country’s showcase real estate market slides precipitously, shot through its horny little heart by an ill-advised, politically-motivated, dumbass tax.

The point of this contrast?

Simple. The world’s dividing neatly into two camps. Those who have exchanged all their money and taken on epic debt to invest in stuff. And those who have chosen to stay liquid. For the past eight years the Stuff People have chortled about their windfall gains and how their giant leverage play paid off. For the next few years, the Liquids may turn smug, watching those pickled in debt slide under the waves as equity tanks.

The Stuffers think financial markets are risky, volatile, dangerous and, if not rigged, certainly stacked against the little guy. The Liquids believe stuffing all your net worth into one asset on one street in one city for which there is no capital market is insanely speculative. Plus you have to clean eavestroughs. Of course, as this pathetic blog keeps pointing out, balanced people try to bridge the extremes. They love owning real estate. And they adore having liquidity. Always a Plan B.

What’s happening in Vancouver these days is pale fire to what we might expect in Victoria, the GTA, Hamilton and other markets in the coming months. Residential real estate was already cracking under its own bloated weight even before the BC crazies decided to slap a stamp tax on the Chinese. Now the market’s frozen. “As American politics are currently at that forefront I offer a tag line borrowed from the Democrats who claim that Together we are Stronger,” says Van realtor and blogger Larry Yatkowsky. “The 15% Property Purchase tax like the Mexican wall proposed by Trump is untenable at its most base level.”

As with Trump (or Brexit, or the rise of the nutbar right in Europe) there are always economic consequences when people vote in a tribal fashion, or cause their local government to think that way to retain power. The evidence is now before us in spades in BC. It’s not so much that foreigners have stopped buying (they have) but that locals who do over 90% of all deals have retreated out of sheer uncertainty. Since real estate runs on emotion and debt, not corporate profits or growth, when greed turns to fear, everything changes.

So here we are. In the first two weeks in August sales dropped 66%, which came after plops of 18% and 31% in June and July respectively. The evidence of decline has been well documented here, and there’s no bottom in sight yet. First sales plunge, then values ricochet lower, always stickier on the way down than the trip up. But the move lower is inevitable.

The cost of houses in Vancouver, Toronto and a few other wannabe cities has detached from the local economy. Borrowers have heroically over-extended, gorging on cheap money handed over by smiling RBC mortgage specialists (and others). As a result of increased demand and reduced supply (listings drop in torrid markets and swell in cooling ones), prices have bloated. Everybody knows it. This is all people talk about. The media is obsessed. Have you seen a single day go by without the Globe and Mail running a housing headline? Me neither.

In an environment like this – where we all know houses are hot and people are horny – it doesn’t take a whole lot to burst the bubble. A rate hike. A few plant closures. Lending restrictions. Or a tax.

So now the real risk contained in residential real estate is exposed. With a wall keeping the Chinese dudes out and the locals on the sidelines, the housing market is suddenly far more exposed to traditional forces – like the ability of people to afford mortgages, based on household income. Oops. The Canadian economy has shed 110,000 full-time jobs in a mere two months. Our trade deficit is massive – at a record level. The whole economy has just contracted. And a candidate for US president wants to tear up our free trade agreement.

I’ll admit it. Those who eschewed my advice to seek balance and instead snorfled the biggest mortgage they could get, snapping up inflated real estate have lucked out. It was a once-in-a-generation and localized opportunity. I sure hope you took the profit. In the year ahead you can count on higher US interest rates, higher Canadian taxes and a struggling economy. The potential for correction in many places is profound.

As for RBC and the rest of the banking cabal, they’ll sail through it. The citizens of Maple have no history of big mortgage defaults, and are unlikely to start now. They’ll keep paying even as equity leaves town. Besides, such an overwhelming amount of mortgage debt is taxpayer-insured that bank exposure here is a fraction of what it was when the US housing gasbag exploded.

Investors don’t have a lot to worry about. Others have much.

“It’s not just that there’s less buyers in the real estate market: you’ve got all these people whose jobs are dependent on the over-exaggerated real estate market. They’re taking a hit, too,” Van academic Tsur Somerville said this week. “Whether they be realtors or people in construction or stores that sell granite countertops or Maserati dealerships, they’re going to see an effect from it.”

Meanwhile the bankers handing out mortgages like candy, no proof of income, continue to goose their dividends. What days these are.

1SUN

154 comments ↓

#1 NoName on 08.24.16 at 6:36 pm

Hey NoName,sounds complicated but like I said you gotta do what’s best for you.

I still don’t understand why you can’t get a tfsa and stay with the same guy but I think some of the story is lost in translation.
—-
Let me start with this,
https://vine.co/v/MJ7ZYBPHD3D
I understand benefit of tfsa, ill do some catching up hopefully by end of this year. just to remind me of tfsa benefit i run my handy dandy hack job Monte Carlo for fully funded 2
tfsa (for couple).

asumption
115k total gain and contributions
7% return rate per ye
18% deviation
3% DD a year rolled in
20 yrs
max contribution 10k-yr for couple
ONE THOUSAND ITERATIONS
(that sounds sirius)
Not most scientific simulation but kind of works, and all that on cellphone…

http://imgur.com/KiCKHJo

#2 Harvey Lipshitz on 08.24.16 at 6:41 pm

Kathleen Wynne is offering FREE Tuition as part of her NO JOBS program. We need to have the most highly educated street people in the world.

#3 lovethemoney on 08.24.16 at 6:42 pm

Been making my future putting small deposits on new builds then flipping before completed. Average profit $100,000. No crash, go look at new home lineups, going keep making my $ and living large. Got to love this country.

#4 Steve on 08.24.16 at 6:43 pm

Welcome to BC. Sold to a highest bidder.

#5 Mark on 08.24.16 at 6:47 pm

Wow, I must be getting old. I still remember when a big deal was made out of RBC having its first $1B quarter (or was it year?). Come to think of it, that was during the RE crash of the 1990s, and there was lots of outcry from the usual (NDP) suspects.

I guess TD and CIBC are up to bat tomorrow. TD for a dividend increase.

#6 Context on 08.24.16 at 6:54 pm

I have seen this all before and it appears to me with the no income verification and the loan to value ratio this gives me a hint. CIBC is packaging a mortgage portfolio to be sold to a particular buyer with deep pockets, whereby, CIBC administers the package for a fee on behalf of the buyer.

#7 Braj on 08.24.16 at 6:57 pm

@ #1 NoName on 08.24.16 at 6:36 pm

What kind of investments are you assuming you’ll hold in there? Looks good whatever it is.. I’d almost want to stuff mine with equities only (ETFs of course). Not sure what else can be considered high growth though. I’ve been wondering about dividend ETFs for a small portion, but I think the basic indexes are better.

#8 Doug t on 08.24.16 at 6:57 pm

The modern banking system as we know it today is like a vampire that sucks the life out of its victims but not enough to kill them and let’s them live to continue sucking their souls dry

#9 Victoria Real Estate Update on 08.24.16 at 6:58 pm

CANADA’S FAILING ECONOMIC ACTION PLAN

There is clear evidence of housing market overvaluation in Canadian markets from coast to coast.

How did it get that way? That’s easy.

Through CMHC and Genworth Canada (Canada’s economic action plan), people with no money are being given ridiculously dangerous subprime mortgages, bidding up house prices in the process. The banks assume no risk. The risk is the responsibility of Canadian taxpayers. CMHC was bailed out in the 80s and in the 90s.

This has been going on in Canada since 2000 (or earlier) when mortgage lending standards were lowered dramatically. This brought about the inflation of the housing bubble.

THE US AND CANADA – CONTRASTING ECONOMIES: STRONG VS WEAK

Garth has written about how much stronger the US economy is in comparison to the weakening Canadian economy.

“Now that the (Canadian) economy’s swampy, jobs are being lost, trade is down and taxes are up…” (link)

In 2015, Canada was the only G7 nation to be in recession and we are almost there again.

In general, the American economy appears to be able to support house prices. The same can’t be said of the Canadian economy. Economic advantage: America.

CANADIANS AND AMERICANS HAVE SIMILAR INCOME AND INTEREST RATE LEVELS

There is no advantage for either country’s housing market with respect to these two factors.

THE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE IN HOUSE PRICES (CANADA VS US) COMES DOWN TO THESE BASIC THINGS:

* Canada’s mortgage lending standards are lax compared to those in the States. For example, the minimum down payment in most parts of the US is 20% (it’s been like that for a long time) while in Canada the minimum down payment is 5% (it was 10% for the longest time before being changed).

* With lax lending standards in place, CMHC and Genworth Canada are being used as Canada’s economic action plan, allowing people with no money to bid up house prices. High-risk, high ratio subprime mortgages continue to be given out like candy. This type of thing isn’t happening in the US.

* Canada’s mortgage lending standards have been poorly enforced. Mortgage fraud is a fast growing problem in Canada.

Mortgage fraud helped inflate (and deflate) the 2006 American bubble. However, it‘s apparent that mortgage fraud hasn’t been an issue in the US since that time. Enforcing the rules and trying to minimize the amount of mortgage fraud was among the lessons learned by the US.

BUBBLY BEYOND BELIEF

Just how inflated are house prices in Canada? Extremely, according to the Economist. They say house prices in Canada are almost 90% overvalued compared to rents.

BUBBLY, EVEN IN THE MARITIMES

Introducing: New Glasgow, NS
Overall worst city (2012) – MoneySense’s annual ranking of Canadian cities and towns with populations over 10,000 (2 years in a row).
Reasons for the lowest ranking: high unemployment, low incomes, limited public transit, a high crime rate and lots of cold, wet weather.

Even with all of that, Canadians (our economy is weak) pay a lot more for a house in New Glasgow, NS than Americans (their economy is strong) do in desirable states such as Florida and Arizona. This makes it obvious that Canada’s bubble-blowing policy has pushed house prices to ridiculous levels from coast to coast.

(google the entire next line to view the listing)

$399,000 – 608 Terrace Street, New Glasgow, NS

* 3 beds, 2 baths, 2,178 sq. ft., built in 2008, attached double garage, no basement. (assessed at $307 K)

FLORIDA, CALIFORNIA, HAWAII TOP STATES WHERE AMERICANS WANT TO LIVE – The Harris Poll (it’s been around since 1963)

Florida: # 1 (has been rated at 1st, 2nd or 3rd every year since 1997)
Arizona: # 8

Florida:
$184 K, Palm Bay, FL
* 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,159 sq. ft., built in 2006, attached double garage

$195 K, Jacksonville, FL
* 4 beds, 2 baths, 2,169 sq. ft., built in 2011, attached double garage

Arizona:
$220 K, Buckeye, AZ (Phoenix)
* 5 beds, 2 baths, 2,132 sq. ft., built in 2008, attached double garage

HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR ITS ENTERTAINMENT VALUE

Watch for it – some realtor will whine and cry about how they don’t like Florida or Arizona, as though that justifies bubble prices in New Glasgow, NS. Their opinion clashes with that of Americans, who rate both states in the top ten.

#10 Shawn on 08.24.16 at 7:01 pm

Then why suggest 17% Canadian equity exposure (40% of which is banks). Isn’t this high with Canada being only 3% of MSCI World? Why not <10% Canadian exposure? Is the dividend tax credit really worth it?

#11 For those about to flop... on 08.24.16 at 7:06 pm

#1 NoName on 08.24.16 at 6:36 pm
Hey NoName,sounds complicated but like I said you gotta do what’s best for you.

I still don’t understand why you can’t get a tfsa and stay with the same guy but I think some of the story is lost in translation.
—-
Let me start with this,
https://vine.co/v/MJ7ZYBPHD3D
I understand benefit of tfsa, ill do some catching up hopefully by end of this year. just to remind me of tfsa benefit i run my handy dandy hack job Monte Carlo for fully funded 2
tfsa (for couple).

asumption
115k total gain and contributions
7% return rate per ye
18% deviation
3% DD a year rolled in
20 yrs
max contribution 10k-yr for couple
ONE THOUSAND ITERATIONS
(that sounds sirius)
Not most scientific simulation but kind of works, and all that on cellphone…

http://imgur.com/KiCKHJo

///////////////////////////

I am quite capable of embarrassing myself on this blog but if you want to have a Keystone Cops moment I wil keep trying to help out.

For starters you and your wife can put 11k in per year.

Vote out the Metrosexual Messiah in 3 years and it could go back to 10k.each but should probably go to 7.5 each for a few years to keep the Millys happy.

Do some research if you don’t have a Tfsa you will pay tens of thousands of more tax by the time you are 70.

We will meet up I will give you a mini Croatia banner I was given in your home country and you will buy me the cheapest beer they have…

Score 1-1

M42BC

#12 Shawn on 08.24.16 at 7:07 pm

Same goes for Canadian bonds. Yields are lower here than in the US. Yield-to-maturity data on govt bonds suggests lower than coupon compounded return for the duration of intermediate and long term bonds (i.e. bonds are trading at a significant premium).

#13 Dave on 08.24.16 at 7:07 pm

Christ Garth, we were wondering when you were going to admit it!….

Yes, those saps who have been greedy and thought this will just go on forever are finally going to be screwed as we see real estate tanking….

#14 Cory on 08.24.16 at 7:09 pm

CMHC = Moral Hazard

Low interest rates = stupid people spending a lifetime of future earnings for nothing.

When a bank can insure a mortgage to their benefit (thank you taxpayers!), and have the mortgagee pay the premium….to the banks benefit if the mortgage is defaulted on….you’d have to be a 1000% moron running a bank to run in to mess it up. It is a beautiful business ……..on the backs of taxpayers. Usually, when I buy insurance for my car for example, I am paying the premium to protect me not the car manufacturer.

Just wait until interest rates do rise…..if the banks are making such good earnings now under these low rate conditions then, once the NIM improves, bank profits should reflect an even better return.

#15 Shawn on 08.24.16 at 7:10 pm

If you are right (which I think you might be) and real estate significantly impacts future economic growth, why take such a risk on Canadian investments? Many can make the argument that Canadian banks are overvalued relative to US and European couterparts. The TSX is 37% financials. Very extreme. I’m not suggesting a crash, but I think it’s dead $.

#16 Shawn on 08.24.16 at 7:10 pm

Your blog is great by the way.

#17 mark on 08.24.16 at 7:12 pm

In a way the tax was the best thing that could happen. If foreign buyers were only 5% of the market, the contrary belief (without any long term record keeping) had created a FOMO mania that needed a bucket of cold water over it. Frankennumbers would be disguising the truth for too long.

Realtors howling at the aftermath have only got themselves to blame, they played the Chinaman ruse every step of the way. This is their pay off.

#18 Mr Schadenfreude on 08.24.16 at 7:13 pm

People have always used the argument in this blog and on the comment sections of the news articles that immigrants are flooding into Toronto and Vancouver which is why RE is a sure be in either of these cities.

I came across this site and the graph shows immigration to be essentially the same for the last 25 years.

http://www.immigrationwatchcanada.org/

Kind of kills that bullish reason for price increases in my mind.

#19 escspoof on 08.24.16 at 7:19 pm

Anyone actually read BMO’s filing yesterday?

I quote:
“In December 2015, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) advised Canadian banks that it will be updating the regulatory capital requirements for residential mortgages and home equity lines of credit. The update will be tied to increases in local property prices and/or to house prices that are high relative to borrower incomes. Proposed changes have been released and
implementation is expected November 1, 2016.”

More uncertainty looms.

Love the blog Garth! Long time reader first time poster.

#20 ertw on 08.24.16 at 7:20 pm

An anecdote from Coquitlam (sample size: 1). House that my family of four is renting sold after 4ish days on the market. Purchased by a very large foreign family where the father doesn’t live in Canada. Realtor said that the tax paused the frenzy for three weeks, but now he’s sold 8 homes in 5 days.

Frustrating. Not yet ready to move my career out of Vancouver though.

#21 JSS on 08.24.16 at 7:21 pm

My guess for bank dividend increases this quarter…

Bank Dividend increase

RBC Yes (already announced)
TD No
Scotia Yes
CIBC No
BMO No (already announced)
National No

#22 Mark on 08.24.16 at 7:22 pm

“Just wait until interest rates do rise…..if the banks are making such good earnings now under these low rate conditions then, once the NIM improves, bank profits should reflect an even better return.”

NIM is just one part of the equation, and a drastically overemphasized part of the equation. Arguably lower interest rates are better for banks than higher interest rates as the low interest rate environment tends to inflate the sort of assets that banks lend extensively against. Additionally, low rates tend to increase margins (after all, in the calculation of margins, as the denominator approaches zero, the margins approach infinity — in a nutshell, you basically have to be a dummy not to be able to make oodles of money in ZIRP, but its far more difficult when rates are higher as a bank or insurer!).

“If you are right (which I think you might be) and real estate significantly impacts future economic growth, why take such a risk on Canadian investments”

The TSX tends to be more correlated to the emerging markets, than the actual Canadian economy. The banks’ positioning, at least as far as residential RE goes, it effectively ‘short’. The TSX is also an alternative in speculation for Canadian speculators who currently have most of their enthusiasm expressed into the housing market.

Last but not least, the spectre of rising global monetary instability is in the early stages of driving very strong returns in the deeply inversely correlated precious metals mining sector. Canada’s exposure to the sector is severely disproportionate relative to global asset allocations. The precious metals sector doesn’t shine very often, but when it does shine, typically every ~30-40 years or so, its outperformance tends to be quite epic relative to most other asset classes. 1930s. 1970s. 2010s?

#23 Steve on 08.24.16 at 7:26 pm

Mr Shadenfreude,

What we see now are not working class immigrants, but rather “Students” who act as proxies for foreign money:

http://www.theprovince.com/news/million+point+grey+mansion+owned+student/11912936/story.html

#24 Context on 08.24.16 at 7:28 pm

I would love to know the term being offered on those mortgages from CIBC because unless the tax act was changed since the 1980’s there is a loophole that few ever knew about if the term was 5 years or greater on foreign funds. Exempt from any withholding taxation.

#25 pathcontrolmonk on 08.24.16 at 7:29 pm

Here is a great infographic produced by our friends at Allianz showing sustainabily of worldwide pensions by country… Canada’s pension being less sustainable than the US :(

http://projectm-online.com/demographics/pension-atlas/

#26 mouldyinYVR on 08.24.16 at 7:35 pm

“Act in Haste, Repent at Leisure”

#27 The Wet Coast on 08.24.16 at 7:35 pm

Garth as you’ve said many times the Chinese dudes weren’t the problem. The tax shock will pass and houses will rise again the way they had been. Odd though that Richmond is far and away the hardest hit according to Zolo.

#28 vulcan without ears on 08.24.16 at 7:35 pm

Short CM first in the big 5…!

#29 Darren on 08.24.16 at 7:36 pm

Is there any chance HAM goes to Calgary which, obviously, does not have the BC tax, and there is relative value?

Also, as much as I desire higher rates, I suspect that US rates will be the same or lower into 2018. (feel free to save this and mock me Garth. My ability to forecast the future is unblemished by success)

#30 Joseph R. on 08.24.16 at 7:42 pm

What I don’t get in the picture is the dinosaur.

Why would you sell mortgages with a dinosaur as a mascot?

#31 Tammy Smythe on 08.24.16 at 7:44 pm

How can Investors Group pay a 4.44% yield to maturity strip bond until 2032-Dec-1.

In 16 years and 130 days, 103.51% total interest or 6.3285% is accrued annually and paid at maturity.

The way world and domestic interest rates are so low it seems something too good to be true.

#32 Goldie on 08.24.16 at 7:45 pm

I have link to a CBC story about the measures that some other countries take when dealing with foreign real estate investors. Included among them, ironically considering the ridiculous comparison to trump’s wall, is Mexico. Also, you can find Hong Kong who, like Vancouver, also have a 15% tax, in addition to having specific housing that is only available to locals. I guess they must be racist xenophobes.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/real-estate-housing-foreign-buyers-1.3479508

#33 NoName on 08.24.16 at 7:48 pm

#7 Braj on 08.24.16 at 6:57 pm

i think i stole 7% return from balanced portfolio and 18% deviation from s&p 500. so as i sad its a hack-job!

#34 John in Mtl on 08.24.16 at 7:48 pm

Garth wrote: “The citizens of Maple have no history of big mortgage defaults, and are unlikely to start now. ”

How certain can we be of this ? What are the ethics of those younger buyers that may get dragged under the bus? I’ve heard and read many times that Millenials think nothing of debt, its a “normal” part of life; do they know the real consequences of bankruptcy but don’t really care? Also, they have time on their side… so what if they declare bankruptcy at age 25-28; because 7 to 10 years later the slate is clean.

I’m not so sure of “no big mortgage defaults”, its a different world now.

#35 Linda on 08.24.16 at 7:50 pm

OK, let’s say the implosion this blog has been prophesying for quite some time comes to pass. Those who are liquid should keep very, very quiet. Because you just know those who will be creamed are going to shriek that the game was rigged, that those who are not in the sinking ship should have to bail out the passengers & forfeit all those ill gotten gains. Because otherwise ‘it isn’t fair’. And since the creamed are a far greater proportion of the population (sadly) the politicians are going to want to soothe their scrapes & bruises. Hell hath no fury like someone who thinks they’ve been dispossessed & misery loves company. And let us face it – when the vast majority have nothing left to tax, that leaves the minority squarely in the cross hairs.

#36 BobC on 08.24.16 at 7:51 pm

Garth,
A simple question that requires only a yes or no.
You said to sell gold and you were right.
You said to sell real estate in certain areas and it looks like you are right.
In order for me to sleep better here’s the question:
IF the time comes that you think we should go to cash will you say so?

Why would you? — Garth

#37 Say What? on 08.24.16 at 7:56 pm

“In the year ahead you can count on higher US interest rates, higher Canadian taxes and a struggling economy. The potential for correction in many places is profound.” – Garth

—————————————————-

You are probably wrong about higher US rates and the potential for correction in many places includes the stock market.

Of course markets will correct. They do all the time. The last was in June. Zzzz. — Garth

#38 Mark on 08.24.16 at 8:00 pm

“How can Investors Group pay a 4.44% yield to maturity strip bond until 2032-Dec-1.”

They would have, at the time of issuing that bond, used the proceeds to buy something (or fill a hole in their balance sheet, whatever the case may be) with an implied return greater than the yield they issued the bond at.

As long as that criteria is met and their higher yielding investment remains intact, the bond is payable and the issuer will have earned a profit from taking on the debt.

Where such debt becomes a problem is if the assumed returns fall to such an extent that exceeds the long-term promised return on the bond to such an extent that the equity of the issuer is substantially destroyed. In which case, the bond may not be paid in full, and the obligation may be subject to conversion to equity.

#39 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 08.24.16 at 8:03 pm

“Besides, such an overwhelming amount of mortgage debt is taxpayer-insured that bank exposure here is a fraction of what it was when the US housing gasbag exploded”

“Meanwhile the bankers handing out mortgages like candy, no proof of income”

Insurance paying out is not a guarantee. In fact, I could see the political winds pressuring for the CMHC to investigate the mortgage aps, and tie up payments in court for years.

The banks are solid, but the guarantee is not.

#40 mouldyinYVR on 08.24.16 at 8:04 pm

Meanwhile in ‘lulu land’ where the good times roll on forever!!:
http://www.bcauditor.com/sites/default/files/publications/2014/report_15/report/OAG%20Catastrophic%20Earthquake_FINAL.pdf

“Emergency Management BC (EMBC) is not adequately prepared for a catastrophic earthquake. This came as a surprise given that (the Auditor General of BC) first looked at this topic 17 years ago in our Earthquake Preparedness report and arrived at the same conclusion. Progress has been made in some areas over this intervening period, but overall, the province is still at a significant risk if a catastrophic earthquake were to occur today.”

“Catastrophic” earthquakes are capable of resulting in a high number of injuries, casualties, and extensive infrastructure damage. A recent report by the Insurance Bureau of Canada estimates that if such an earthquake were to occur off the densely populated south coast of the province and be followed by a tsunami, damages and losses could amount to nearly $75 billion. Experts have recently estimated a 12% probability of a catastrophic earthquake affecting BC in the next 50 years.

#41 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.24.16 at 8:05 pm

Also the US economy is crazy strong compared to us. They’re at full employment meanwhile we’re shedding thousands of jobs.

YYZ property owners will see prices fall some day. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

#42 @#23 Steve on 08.24.16 at 8:06 pm

Bingo!

Your post gets the truth award of the day!

#43 bubu on 08.24.16 at 8:09 pm

@#29 Darren – they started already in Edmonton (University area)…. so Calgary is for sure an option but only the good areas… there is too much land in AB to go to the suburbs….

#44 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.24.16 at 8:11 pm

Also the US economy is crazy strong compared to us. They’re at full employment meanwhile we’re shedding thousands of jobs.

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/08/04/us-economy-to-grow-3-7-in-q3-atlanta-fed/

YYZ property owners will see prices fall some day. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

#45 april on 08.24.16 at 8:12 pm

#27 – Are you really stupid enough to think real estate goes up continually forever????

#46 Dave on 08.24.16 at 8:22 pm

“Second, relentless high immigration has caused two results : (1) relentless demand for a basic human need such as housing and (2) relentless increases in house prices. The urban area which is the best example of this is Metro Vancouver where house prices are now the second highest in the world. (Metro Toronto has also been seriously affected.) Much of Metro Vancouver’s population can no longer afford house ownership. In cases where the existing population has bought housing, they have had to take on huge mortgages. UBC Geography Professor David Ley has clearly shown the connection between immigration and Metro Vancouver house prices ”

http://www.immigrationwatchcanada.org/2015/11/22/unjustified-immigration-levels-against-publics-wishes/

#47 Andrew Woburn on 08.24.16 at 8:24 pm

SolidEnergy Systems, an MIT spinoff, has announced a breakthrough in lithium battery technology which could help drive the adoption of electric automobiles.

“With two-times the energy density, we can make a battery half the size, but that still lasts the same amount of time, as a lithium ion battery. Or we can make a battery the same size as a lithium-ion battery, but now it will last twice as long,” Hu told MIT News.

Not only that, but SolidEnergy discovered a way to make them with existing lithium-ion manufacturing machines, which means, unlike many other so-called battery breakthroughs, Hu’s new battery tech could make it into commercial devices relatively soon.

Putting these new batteries in electric vehicles as well could represent “a huge societal impact,” Hu says: “Industry standard is that electric vehicles need to go at least 200 miles on a single charge. We can make the battery half the size and half the weight, and it will travel the same distance, or we can make it the same size and same weight, and now it will go 400 miles on a single charge.”

http://news.mit.edu/2016/lithium-metal-batteries-double-power-consumer-electronics-0817

#48 Mark on 08.24.16 at 8:37 pm

“US economy is crazy strong compared to us. They’re at full employment “

Please get help WalMark. Please. Before you make a greater fool of yourself (no pun intended).

#49 Derek R on 08.24.16 at 8:38 pm

#30 Joseph R. on 08.24.16 at 7:42 pm asked:
What I don’t get in the picture is the dinosaur.

Why would you sell mortgages with a dinosaur as a mascot?

That’s no dinosaur. That’s a Charmander. Every Millennial knows what he is. Even a few of us Boomers might know. Not that we’re admitting it…

#50 Mark on 08.24.16 at 8:41 pm

“Insurance paying out is not a guarantee. In fact, I could see the political winds pressuring for the CMHC to investigate the mortgage aps, and tie up payments in court for years.
The banks are solid, but the guarantee is not.”

Any meaningful amount of intransigence in CMHC paying out on its legal obligations (of both the guarantee, and the guarantee of timely payment) will result in the banks significantly, if not fully ceasing their activity in the residential RE mortgage sector.

The outcome of such a hypothetical situation would be a systemic collapse of the market and a dramatic acceleration on CMHC insurance claims. After all, what do you think houses would be worth if no credit was available? A mere fraction of current prices, most likely.

So the CMHC most likely won’t be unduly intransigent in paying out claims. They can’t. The banks have a giant hammer, that of stopping lending, to use against the CMHC if the CMHC starts to stir things up too much.

Of course, the banks themselves rely upon the CMHC guarantee, but I am fairly certain that the politicians would be very keen to avoid a systemic melt-down of both the Canadian housing market, as well as the banks themselves. So some compromise will be reached. As I argued in previous posts, probably involving some quid pro quos with respect to some insolvent credit unions (particularly in the bubbly cities), as well as perhaps a bank surtax or CMHC surcharge on the banks.

#51 Paul on 08.24.16 at 8:43 pm

#30 Joseph R. on 08.24.16 at 7:42 pm

What I don’t get in the picture is the dinosaur.

Why would you sell mortgages with a dinosaur as a mascot?
————————————————————-
Because people are still paying mortgages since the dinosaur was an egg!

Not really it just seems that long, lol

#52 NoName on 08.24.16 at 8:46 pm

#47 Andrew Woburn on 08.24.16 at 8:24 pm

dont believe anything that talks about lion batteries… lion. bateris are like cfl bulb whole industry is geared towards them, and same problem from forst gen to now, keep them cool on summer keep them worm on winter or …
lio batteries are like spoiled brats of battery family.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/gadgets/a15731/best-way-to-keep-li-ion-batteries-charged/

long live deep cycle led acid battery,

#53 cramar on 08.24.16 at 8:55 pm

Was talking to the new couple that moved from Kitchener who bought a house across the street. Following in the footsteps we did 4 years ago! Their RE agent told them that it was a perfect time to buy in this area and predicted in two years house prices will shoot up major. The reason is demand from boomers from the GTA, Hamilton, K-W, who are getting out of those high-priced areas and choosing to move to places like Leamington.

I’ve heard this from three different agents that they are swamped with out-of-town buyers who are snapping up cheap RE here in Essex County.

Bring ’em on!

#54 liqudincalgary on 08.24.16 at 9:00 pm

Mark on 08.24.16 at 6:47 pm

I guess TD and CIBC are up to bat tomorrow. TD for a dividend increase.

======================================

have to agree with this one. over the past ten years, RBC shares up nearly 70%…second only to TD’s massive 90% gain over the same period

#55 Smoking Man on 08.24.16 at 9:02 pm

The Canadian economy has shed 110,000 full-time jobs in a mere two months. Our trade deficit is massive – at a record level. The whole economy has just contracted. And a candidate for US president wants to tear up our free trade agreement. -,Garth

Makes a pretty good argument for negative rates.
And we know what the Herd will focus on…

Bet Accordingly

#56 Context on 08.24.16 at 9:08 pm

#53 cramar: – did you know that a tornado just hit a few miles from you blowing La Salle apart?

#57 S.Bby on 08.24.16 at 9:12 pm

Wait until next May when the NDP win the BC provincial election. Then we’ll really see some changes.

#58 common sense on 08.24.16 at 9:14 pm

#53 Cramer

Cheap real estate here in the Niagara Peninsula is also being snapped up just as fast…

Let’s hope it continues…

#59 S.Bby on 08.24.16 at 9:21 pm

#20 ertw

Well those Coquitlam houses must not be on MLS because the houses I see on MLS are not moving.

#60 The Wet Coast on 08.24.16 at 9:21 pm

#45 april on 08.24.16 at 8:12 pm

Are you so stupid you can’t read sarcasm or irony?.

The Vancouver market is being crushed by the tax. Unlike most of the folks on this blog, including Garth I actually live in Vancouver. Had Christie not put the tax in place I would have voted NDP for the first time in my life. I want my my kids to live in the same city I do and what was going on was crazy.

#61 Smoking Man on 08.24.16 at 9:22 pm

I’m a real asshole, I should really stop trying to trigger and unhinge the left. Dipshits like Soros funding division for him and his fellow elites, trying to get the herd to take their eye of the biggest issue of their lives, namely poverty and a diminishing standard of living.

In the sixties, one wage could feed and shelter a family, woman were happy being home with the kids and raising them based on family values. Today the state raises the kids to be whiny little brats, victims blaming the most convenient target to create a distraction.

Today the enemy is the white straight male privilege. Whites vs Blacks, Woman vs Men, Gender confusion.

It’s a play my dogs. and you are all two-bit actors working against yourself and making the machine more powerful and richer.

I’m still attacking lefties, they are dumbest in society.

#62 For those about to flop... on 08.24.16 at 9:26 pm

The cost of healthcare in the U.S is boooooming…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/opxEPtA

#63 Mac on 08.24.16 at 9:34 pm

Hey, Garth…I’m all about what you are saying, but my concern is with the growing number of people and a new generation or two that are eschewing the stock market in seemingly growing numbers. What will this mean for the market in the years to come? If houses are the dominant place to put money for a majority of people, what does that mean for the future of investing in companies and the growth of equities? I’m not sure I grasp what may be coming down the pipe with so many house horny people plowing billions into mortgages and nothing into the stock market.

#64 Wild Albertan Gonads on 08.24.16 at 9:36 pm

#49 Derek R on 08.24.16 at 8:38 pm

#30 Joseph R. on 08.24.16 at 7:42 pm asked:
What I don’t get in the picture is the dinosaur.

Why would you sell mortgages with a dinosaur as a mascot?

That’s no dinosaur. That’s a Charmander. Every Millennial knows what he is. Even a few of us Boomers might know. Not that we’re admitting it…

A Charmander that feeds on debt!!

“Charmander exhibits pack behavior, calling others of its species if it finds food.”

#65 liqudincalgary on 08.24.16 at 9:37 pm

well alberta, ready for a sales tax?

#66 common sense on 08.24.16 at 9:39 pm

#62 Flopski

Everything is BOOOOOMING in the U.S.A. , all the time.

I guess that’s why you rarely hear of BOOM TOWN (insert any other country ) than BOOM TOWN U.S.A.

M55ON

#67 Hard Core on 08.24.16 at 9:40 pm

Don’t worry!! Juice Box Justin is going to kow tow to China and RBC says it’s ” silly” to think housing will collapse when Juicy Junior has extended a pants down approach to China.

http://www.bnn.ca/silly-to-view-vancouver-housing-as-ticking-time-bomb-says-rbc-head-of-canadian-equity-strategy-1.554706

The Moroneau/Trudeau brain trust will chance upon something, like more selfies and lots more free helicopter money to Unifor and other Liberal factions. It’s bread and circuses time folks, nothing to worry about.

#68 TurnerNation on 08.24.16 at 9:49 pm

I’ve got some long term Kaputs on Genworth MIC.TO will see if anything comes.

#69 Who luvs you baby on 08.24.16 at 9:53 pm

#61 Smoking Man on 08.24.16 at 9:22 pm

I’m a real asshole, I should really stop trying to trigger and unhinge the left. Dipshits like Soros funding division for him and his fellow elites, trying to get the herd to take their eye of the biggest issue of their lives, namely poverty and a diminishing standard of living.

In the sixties, one wage could feed and shelter a family, woman were happy being home with the kids and raising them based on family values. Today the state raises the kids to be whiny little brats, victims blaming the most convenient target to create a distraction.

Today the enemy is the white straight male privilege. Whites vs Blacks, Woman vs Men, Gender confusion.

It’s a play my dogs. and you are all two-bit actors working against yourself and making the machine more powerful and richer.

I’m still attacking lefties, they are dumbest in society.
..

So if the stepford wives turn you on so much….. what’s with the rentals?

#70 Ace Goodheart on 08.24.16 at 10:07 pm

Don’t entirely agree with you, particularly with regard to Toronto real estate (but i think you know that).

They have built a “condo village” down by the old “Skydome” (now the “Roger’s Centre – or have they changed the name again? I still remember the contest to name it and the person who won with the name “Skydome”).

At any rate, there is a village of perhaps tens of thousands of individual condo units, all clustered around the main rail line into Toronto (apparently they are now going to build a park over the tracks).

It is a modern day ghetto. Reminds me of the hill folk terraces in Brazil. Apparently the price of entry into this little “condo shanty town” on the wrong side of the tracks is a little over 500K.

Are you honestly telling me that these concrete encased folks wouldn’t give a left kidney (stones and all) to live in a detached house, anywhere in this City?

There is a lot of demand for housing here in Toronto. That isn’t going to end any time soon. Condo slum dwellers want out. They still remember what grass smells like from their childhoods.

#71 For those about to flop... on 08.24.16 at 10:11 pm

Hey Common, yeah I chucked the booming part in as a stir but it’s sad that the U.S spends 8 times more than Chlie but lives roughly the same years.

The best bang for buck seems to be Italy,Spain and Japan if you survive the earthquakes.

While I am talking to you there is an add on HLN t.v station with a cartoon version of Janet Yellen dropping a football and talks about the fed fumbling the football….not sure what they’re selling but it’s pretty funny.

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Speaking about HLN reminds me to update you guys on my wife.
Some of you will remember she hurt her knee after taking a fall.

I have since found out she must have hurt her head as well because when I ask her what she wants to watch she responds by asking to watch CNN and HLN to catch up on election coverage ….these are troubling times…

M42BC

#72 Wild Albertan Gonads on 08.24.16 at 10:15 pm

#65 liqudincalgary on 08.24.16 at 9:37 pm

well alberta, ready for a sales tax?

NO…. but the rest of Canada could approve pipelines.. that would a good idea.

#73 NoName on 08.24.16 at 10:16 pm

#11 For those about to flop… on 08.24.16 at 7:06 pm

yes, when we meer we will drink beer, because we cant drink bacon.

#74 Mark on 08.24.16 at 10:17 pm

“If houses are the dominant place to put money for a majority of people, what does that mean for the future of investing in companies and the growth of equities? ”

In a nutshell, it keeps equities cheap. Which means that people who (wisely) eschew (excessive) investment in housing have an opportunity to earn a far greater return than would have been possible if equities were expensive.

The best time to buy equities, or really, any asset or investment, is when almost nobody else is interested. And better yet, when there is only minimal availability of credit against such asset class (ie: little competition with ‘credit buyers’).

The TSX, in particular, is priced beneath its historic average P/E, P/B, and dividend yield. Compared to housing or 10/30-year GoC bonds, it is extremely undervalued. You can thank the extreme interest in housing speculation for the public’s relative disinterest in the Canadian stock market indices for its investing activities.

I repeat this about twice a week here, but if the 1990s repeat themselves in Canada, a mere housing downpayment (25%) invested in the TSX (ie: the TIPS) in 1990, instead of buying a house in Toronto, grew enough by the end of the decade to pay for the house 100% in cash. The house buyer, who took out a mortgage, had only paid off a relatively small fraction of the mortgage by the end of the decade net of depreciation and incremental expenses.

#75 Freedom First on 08.24.16 at 10:25 pm

#61 Smoking Man

No wonder so many people hate your guts Smoking Man.
The truth hurts.

That being said, I think this Post of yours today merits a place in your “Hundred Greatest Posts of “THE” Smoking Man.”

Fan #33
…………………………………………………….
007
Freedom First
PHD/Freedomonics

#76 Victor V on 08.24.16 at 10:27 pm

Urbancorp buyers want court to grant them a voice in builder’s restructuring

https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/08/24/urbancorp-buyers-want-court-to-grant-them-a-voice-in-builders-restructuring.html

Nguyen and Stevenson, like many Urbancorp buyers, have had their lives up-ended since learning about the restructuring and subsequent sale of some of the builder’s assets.

They spent every penny of their savings, money from their parents and the proceeds of a condo sale in Nguyen’s family to purchase a four-bedroom home. It was going to be big enough to accommodate their parents for extended stays, particularly Stevenson’s parents, who are dealing with serious health issues and want to be close to Toronto Western Hospital.

The couple was living in his parents’ Oakville home to save money. But the health concerns prompted that home to be sold so they could downsize to a condo. Now Nguyen, 26, and Stevenson, 31, are renting a condo near Dundas and Dufferin streets.

They expect the rent will devour all the money they managed to save while they were in Oakville.

Where they end up is uncertain. They still want to buy a house but say they would never consider buying a pre-construction home. Depending on where Stevenson gets a job, they’re thinking about Hamilton where Nguyen is studying health at McMaster University.

“We’re very stressed and overwhelmed by the whole situation. We feel that the legal system is protecting a corporation at the sacrifice of many hundreds of lives,” said Nguyen.

#77 Barb on 08.24.16 at 10:41 pm

“Wait until next May when the NDP win the BC provincial election. Then we’ll really see some changes.”

——————————————

That’s why the NDP will never ever get elected in BC again. We remember the last TWO–yup, two–reigns of NDP terror.

Christy’s a flake and a buffoon, but still better than the NDP.

We just have to look to AB to see how their NDP is transforming their province. Gawd…

NDP candidates–and mostly, their supporters–have never so much as owned a popcorn stand on a beach in summer…haven’t a bloody clue what makes things tick.
Can’t grasp even the simplest principle like supply ‘n demand…

#78 Smoking Man on 08.24.16 at 10:43 pm

#69 Who luvs you baby on 08.24.16 at 9:53 pm
#61 Smoking Man on 08.24.16 at 9:22 pm

I’m a real asshole, I should really stop trying to trigger and unhinge the left. Dipshits like Soros funding division for him and his fellow elites, trying to get the herd to take their eye of the biggest issue of their lives, namely poverty and a diminishing standard of living.

In the sixties, one wage could feed and shelter a family, woman were happy being home with the kids and raising them based on family values. Today the state raises the kids to be whiny little brats, victims blaming the most convenient target to create a distraction.

Today the enemy is the white straight male privilege. Whites vs Blacks, Woman vs Men, Gender confusion.

It’s a play my dogs. and you are all two-bit actors working against yourself and making the machine more powerful and richer.

I’m still attacking lefties, they are dumbest in society.
..

So if the stepford wives turn you on so much….. what’s with the rentals?
…..

To hammered for a worthy response.. Circle back after the morning hang over.

#79 LH on 08.24.16 at 11:09 pm

My name is Charmander and I approve this message!

#80 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.24.16 at 11:20 pm

Garth calls them Canadian dollarettes for a reason

The US economy is rockin and rollin

The Canadian economy is in the tank

The TSX is forward looking and it knows whats goin down

#81 april on 08.24.16 at 11:27 pm

#60 – go back to school!

#82 The Wet Coast on 08.24.16 at 11:44 pm

For all you folks that think the US is awesome.

It is in some ways. But my employer high deductible health plan cost $10,000 per year. Thank you Obama.
Premium $600/month, copay, deductible family of 4 $7000 which I could pay with before tax dollars. If I was overweight or Smoked add $4,000 to that. Gee I wonder why folks don’t have money for huge mortgages!

#83 cramar on 08.24.16 at 11:54 pm

#56 Context on 08.24.16 at 9:08 pm
#53 cramar: – did you know that a tornado just hit a few miles from you blowing La Salle apart?

——————-

Yeah. Very localized—a few blocks. All we got was heavy rain. But then I’m 30 miles away and got a different storm cell.

#84 Bram on 08.25.16 at 12:05 am

#68 TurnerNation on 08.24.16 at 9:49 pm
I’ve got some long term Kaputs on Genworth MIC.TO will see if anything comes.

Gutsy.
The really low P/E multiple of 8.84 and nice dividend yield could indicate that Genworth has quite some room to increase in value, thus making your put options go to zero.

I guess there is a chance of making money with your option, but more likely is a -100% on that investment.
What’s the expiry date you got on them?

#85 Denise#1 on 08.25.16 at 12:06 am

Crusty Christie’s plan is on course. She wanted the “foreigner’s tax” to dampen the market in Vancouver but she didn’t want to apply it elsewhere in BC so she could keep the party going in Victoria etc. Had to keep ploughing RE $ into the provincial coffers by keeping the FOMO hysteria going right?
On our local TV station in Victoria, Chek News tonight: they’re flying in Vancouver realtors to check out property here, then go back to Vancouver & pump it. Here’s the link: http://www.cheknews.ca/vancouver-realtors-flown-view-saanich-home-211083/
I hope I’ve done that properly but if not you’ve got enough info to google it. I sure as hell won’t vote for Crusty & her crooked Libs in the next election. They’re destroying BC., from real estate to our wildlife to our environment.

#86 For those about to flop... on 08.25.16 at 12:19 am

As I was checking my eBay account tonight this add caught my eye and so I will pass it on in the hope that it assists someone.

250 tech jobs up for grabs in New Brunswick.

Go get em boys…

M42BC

http://www.nbtechjobs.ca

#87 Love My Kia on 08.25.16 at 12:27 am

I’ll admit it. Those who eschewed my advice to seek balance and instead snorfled the biggest mortgage they could get, snapping up inflated real estate have lucked out. It was a once-in-a-generation and localized opportunity.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
(slow clap)
See! How hard was that?

Regardless your advice preaching balance is still wise since no-one has a crystal ball. Markets don’t always run on common sense, especially in our materialistic world.

#88 Learn from China on 08.25.16 at 12:37 am

Why keep calling it the Chinese Tax?

It was deemed ‘racist’ to point out before the tax that the majority of foreign buyers were from China. It stands that is now equally ‘racist’ to assume that all ‘foreign buyers’ targeted in the tax are Chinese. You cannot have it both ways – sorry.

As for the purported discrimination through the tax, be sure to call out China for its discriminatory and ‘foreign head tax.’ If you want to buy as a foreigner, you have to have lived in China for a year; can only buy one house; and it has to be lived in and cannot be for rental purposes. Thats just the general conditions – in cities like Beijing its even way more restrictive.

China officially recognizes the destructive impact of foreign capital on house prices – amazing that Canadians are not allowed to and amazing that China never gets called out. Amazing how the superpower is able to maintain its own economic sovereignty and does not sell out basic shelter to the highest international bidder.

More importantly, why even label or discuss the tax at all – apparently foreign capital has no impact or a negligible one right?

And when we see sales and prices go back up after a little breather – like after the implementation of Hong Kong’s 15% foreign buyers tax – then are we still going to say there is no impact? After all, if FOMO is the driving force, which was built on fear of foreign buyers, then sales and prices should continue to fall right as they are doing now.

A few short months and we will see what the true impact of that tax is – I wager it will have no impact and prices will continue their ascent. FOMO may be justified.

#89 EJ on 08.25.16 at 12:56 am

“nutbar right”? Is that what opposing the globalists who want to sell your country out for a buck is? Is that what opposing the radical-Left who want “open borders” and mass immigration of what amounts to an enemy you are at war with into a welfare state that can’t support its own current citizens is? Is that what defending your nation state, history, culture, and ideals is?

The pathetic labeling and name-calling is getting seriously tiring, and it’s why people will vote for someone who promises to put an end to this crap and actually focus on serving the people of the country they’re supposed to represent. You know, the ones who are actually paying all the taxes?

Where’s the MSM news on the Soros emails? Oh, right, Soros and the other billionaire globalists own the MSM, and they won’t bite the hand that feeds them, and instead pay money to those who further his agenda and smear his opposition. Go look this up, this creep is behind all manner of manipulations. Only Russia has had the balls to put out a warrant for his arrest.

#90 Post on 08.25.16 at 1:00 am

After a couple of weeks you posted how sales had plumetted forvthe first 2 weeks after the 15% tax in Vancouver. You pointed out another nightly blogs evidence about that. That blog, Rob Chipman, showed how the sell to list ration was on average 50% for the first couple of weeks after the tax. “OUCH” you said.

Well. Since then it is back up to 70%. That may not be a definition of one that’s on fire, but it still way upmthere in seller’s market territory.

http://www.robchipman.net

#91 Denise#1 on 08.25.16 at 1:15 am

#40 mouldyinYVR on 08.24.16 at 8:04 pm :

Regarding earthquakes in the lower mainland BC and Vancouver Island: There’s also Devil’s Mountain Fault that lies only 5 km south of Victoria. They’ve recently been able to do more accurate testing on it. Pretty scary stuff. When the big one comes, this Devil’s Mountain Fault will add untold devastation, to Victoria especially. One link: http://focusonline.ca/?q=node/1062.
Makes you wonder why government is so silent on it. Emergency Services/Earthquake Preparedness should definitely be stepped up. Less money/time should be wasted on other bogus unnecessary Fed/Prov infrastructure requirements in Victoria.

#92 Joe2.0 on 08.25.16 at 1:24 am

I’ve been saying it for years.
Foreign buyers are purchasing RE through local companies designed to elude any attempts at being uncovered.

Many local lawyers bread and butter is derived around making elusive RE rabbit holes.

Many Vancouver locals will never have a chance at owning RE.
Give thanks to our Government who is well aware of what’s been happening for years but has bent over backwards, remember the Expo property that was practically given away years ago??

Sheeple don’t have a chance.

#93 jane 24 on 08.25.16 at 2:48 am

For the first time ever British Bloomberg were reporting on the BC housing market slide and Cdn bank reaction to it. The old saying of once news is in the public domain, the main action happened months ago will prove to be very true.

#94 Mark on 08.25.16 at 2:59 am

“Then why suggest 17% Canadian equity exposure (40% of which is banks). Isn’t this high with Canada being only 3% of MSCI World? Why not <10% Canadian exposure? Is the dividend tax credit really worth it?"

Shawn, I wrote a whole essay on this the other day. In a nutshell, yes, the dividend tax credit is worth it. And most Canadians retire in Canada and need income in Canadian dollars. Sure, its quite possible that some other foreign economy would outperform, but there is also the possibility of underperformance.

Advisors like Garth try to come up, within the regulatory and supervisory frameworks they work within, asset allocations that meet the risk suitability and risk tolerance of their clients. Its anything but an exact science, and with the way that rebalancing works, the detailed minutae of asset allocation is in many ways less important than the systemic process of rebalancing to target on a periodic basis.

If Canada had outperformed as a market over the past 15 years, if Canada’s P/E, P/B, etc., ratios were abnormally high, if a client had a full and proper discussion with an advisor and had signed off on all of the risk tolerance paperwork as required by the regulators, certainly a much lesser allocation to Canada could be implemented in practice. It is also important to note that most big Canadian companies have very substantial direct investments in foreign economies. Just go down the list of the TSX60 companies, and you’ll find a whole cornucopia of foreign exposure within the individual constituent firms.

#95 Where flipping for $100K? on 08.25.16 at 3:38 am

#3 lovethemoney…where are you flipping RE new builds and profiting at $100K? How often in a year, where and what type of RE?

Enlighten us, me. Would want in on that gold mine.

#96 Hard Core on 08.25.16 at 4:36 am

Garth, there is no evidence that locals have stopped buying due to the HAM tax. We do have evidence that HAM have retreated to a significant degree albeit not entirely. We know money launderers with loot must get the money landed regardless of the tax to safeguard it from Chinese authorities.

Given these facts and the stats you posted it is only logical to conclude that the roaring trade in real estate was predominately HAM without evidence to the contrary however one would wish to frame their argument, hard facts are honestly come by, politically filtered anecdotes are like a bus, a new one comes by every ten minutes.

On another note, in Thailand today the government has acted on the subject of Air B&B’s restricting rental availability . The edict issued says that if you are not a registered and insured licensed hotel you cannot rent out units for short term accommodation as if you were a hotel.

This is a brilliant solution to Vancouvers .04 vacancy rate due to the preponderance of units rented only as Air B&B’s. The city disallowed UBER for very similar legal reasons. There are tens of thousands of units listed as Air B & B which are sip phoning off jobs and tax revenues from legit hotels. Why not put a stop to Air B& B ‘s unless they are licensed ( like a bed and breakfast has to be) and insured/registered to maintain quality, safety and assurance of insurance. This act alone would instantly solve not only much of the speculation but provide much needed rental units and tax revenue.

And btw, they have to take action on licensing bs
T suites as we’ll. We are missing out on zillions in revenue and ancilliary fees.

#97 Steve French on 08.25.16 at 5:05 am

Dude.. the China-man is not the issue here!

#98 Jenny B on 08.25.16 at 5:38 am

I am tired of the comments suggesting how stupid people are. Yes, this became obscene and yes people were naive to take on the debt they have but I know a couple who were just given a $700,000 Line of Credit to purchase a home in the GTA. They couldn’t qualify for a traditional mortgage because their credit quality is so poor. So they have a HELOC at……drum roll please…….prime plus 10%!!!!! Yes folks, you read that right!!!! PRIME PLUS 10%. Their payments will be more than double the amount you would pay for rent and THEY pay to maintain the home because they are the “owners”. THIS is NOT sub-prime lending! These are not bankers. These are life destroying predators who are preying on the epically stupid knowing full well that it won’t take a year for these people to bankrupt! Oh, but hey, when the wheels fall off the bus they did just pass that little BAIL-IN thingy! Canadians need to grow up and realize that these banks are not the bastions of conservative, fiscally responsible lending we have been lulled into believing. These are crooked institutions who will bleed people and countries utterly dry without the blink of an eye! And the bank who did that HELOC loan shark stunt was Scotiabank………they are all the same!

#99 Keith in Calgary on 08.25.16 at 8:25 am

#89 EJ…….I could not have said it better myself !!

Globalism is a crime against humanity.

So, I have been sitting in the lovely little city of Sarnia, Ontario, all week. A sleepy little border locale where RE is dirt cheap by Ontario standards. No HAM here. No SPAM either…….

#100 NoName on 08.25.16 at 9:32 am

I believe that posted this some time ago…

Pay attention here!
austerity, excel and human error
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-04-18/faq-reinhart-rogoff-and-the-excel-error-that-changed-history

what bring me to next more recent article

Why is recovery taking so long—and who’s to blame?

http://www.epi.org/publication/why-is-recovery-taking-so-long-and-who-is-to-blame/

all this uncertainty and no volatility, GOLD should be
324,000.00 USD considering what’s going on, and grobet files company should go thru renaissance.
/sarc off
back to volatility or lack their of or something like that

https://city.wsj.com/stories/be918b0c-9f2f-40bc-806b-20a6206d778a.html

https://city.wsj.com/stories/d964114f-beee-4b0d-ab5b-17e1ace2c921.html

#101 Rational Optimist on 08.25.16 at 9:41 am

“The cost of houses in Vancouver, Toronto and a few other wannabe cities has detached from the local economy.”

Which are these other wannabe cities? I know the obvious ones- Victoria and (ugh) Hamilton- but what about elsewhere in southern Ontario? If someone is in a secondary market which hasn’t advanced nearly as fast, and is balanced, is there much to be worried about? I ask this with the knowledge that the future is murky and a person might be required to sell at any time. When the media start talking about real estate declines on Toronto and Vancouver, will participants in smaller real estate markets panic and stop buying, too?

#102 Capt. Serious on 08.25.16 at 9:42 am

Interesting. The Jan 2019 put option on Genworth at $38 strike price is at $11.85. Even the $29 strike price contract is at $6.15. Current price of the stock is ~$34.70.

#103 Prairieboy43 on 08.25.16 at 9:44 am

This blog is becoming crazier by the day. Like these two dudes.

https://youtu.be/_XojEUdgK-g

PB43

#104 anon on 08.25.16 at 9:56 am

Poor Charmander, he has no idea what he’s being used for.

#105 CJBob on 08.25.16 at 10:12 am

#99 Keith in Calgary on 08.25.16 at 8:25 am
So, I have been sitting in the lovely little city of Sarnia, Ontario, all week. A sleepy little border locale where RE is dirt cheap by Ontario standards. No HAM here. No SPAM either…….
_______________________
Nice people, but no wonder real estate is so cheap, Sarnia has the worst air quality in Canada.

http://www.theobserver.ca/2011/09/26/sarnias-air-canadas-worst

#106 IHCTD9 on 08.25.16 at 10:17 am

Looking at that pic, it appears as though Barney’s ass is on fire.

#107 Victor V on 08.25.16 at 10:18 am

TD, CIBC continue strong performance by Canada’s banks

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/market-moves/td-cibc-continue-strong-performance-by-canadas-banks?__lsa=4931-70fd

#108 Context on 08.25.16 at 10:37 am

#95 Your missing out for sure as we are flipping all the time on those new builds. I clap my hands all the time when I score an easy 50K every few months. Even my latest wife calls me flipper now.

#109 Victor V on 08.25.16 at 10:39 am

Home Capital stock in turmoil after anonymous short seller’s post

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/home-capital-stock-in-turmoil-after-anonymous-short-sellers-post/article31540956/

Shares of Home Capital Group Inc. were on a roller coaster this week after a popular investor website accused the company of hiding losses by selling bad mortgages to a firm run by one of its board members.

A report posted by someone identifying as a Home Capital short seller called “The Friendly Bear” on the website Seeking Alpha on Tuesday highlighted more than a dozen mortgages that Home Capital transferred last year to a mortgage brokerage called Re-Charge Corp, based in Ancaster, Ont.

One of Re-Charge’s directors is William J. Walker, a partner in the Hamilton office of law firm Gowling WLG. Home Capital appointed Mr. Walker to its board as an independent director last November.

The post’s author alleges Home Capital should have disclosed its financial dealings with Re-Charge and Mr. Walker. “Our hypothesis: Home Capital Group does not want anyone to know that a company owned by one [of] its purportedly independent board members is taking defaulted loans off their books,” the posting states, adding “that the only logical reason a growth-starved lender would transfer loans off balance sheet is to hide non-performing loans.”

#110 NoName on 08.25.16 at 10:52 am

#85 Denise#1 on 08.25.16 at 12:06 am

i wonder do they use same yellow helicopter from few yrs back?

#111 Pepe on 08.25.16 at 11:07 am

No, no slowdown. As long as rates are low, and stuff like below is published as news (news1130 reporting constantly) nothings gonna change. There’s so much construction going on in Vancouver and Burnaby (where I work and live) and people still line up when a new sales centres opens up, people are getting mortgages easily, and no reason can convince an average joe/Jayne to not do so. Nobody here believes theres a bubble, and nobody here will stop trying to get into the Market as long as the big four banks allow them to do so. I have no skin in the game. I rent and live happily debt free. Been reading this blog since 09, big fan, I’ve learned a lot thanks to it. But after all these years, with a front row seat in the show, Garth’s message about an RE crash or correction in the greater Vancouver area has started to sound a bit like bogus.

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/news-and-publications/news-room/news-releases/housing-forecast-news-release

“Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to climb 10.4 per cent to a record 113,000 units this year, eclipsing the previous record of 106,310 units in 2005.

#112 JSS on 08.25.16 at 11:08 am

No dividend increases from TD and CIBC :(

#113 Bram on 08.25.16 at 11:19 am

Another Zolo mystery…
Do 1 bd townhouses exist?
Zolo claims they were on avg $590K for Jun 27 – Jul 25 in YVR.

If they actually exist at all, surely they are too rare to be sold every month in YVR?

Man, there’s so much wrong with that site, unbelievable.
Which leaves us with exactly one reliable source of pricing info: Teranet.
It would be interesting to see if the tax event will show up in there.
If it does, we’ll know exactly how much delay there is in Teranet HPI.

Bram

#114 Victor V on 08.25.16 at 11:25 am

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/summer-slump-metro-vancouver-house-sales-plummet-after-offshore-tax-introduced

Brent Eilers, a veteran West Vancouver realtor, says that based on reported sales across Metro Vancouver he can already predict that the average prices of detached homes for August will be down between 15 to 25 per cent. Those figures roughly agree with the “real-time” average prices for August 2016 posted online by a national real estate firm, Zolo.

Eilers cautions though, that it is “a bit unfair” to judge the market on a 30-day period.

Regardless, choosing his words carefully, Eilers repeatedly said that he is advising his sellers — many of whom are downsizing baby boomers — to sell sooner, rather than risk being caught in a severe correction.

“The tax grossly expanded a shutdown in the market that was already happening,” he said.

Eilers draws on 35 years of market history and four different corrections to advise his clients of a range of possibilities.

#115 Context on 08.25.16 at 11:49 am

#113 Bram:- They exist and are available in the Toronto area such as at 3050 Erin Centre Blvd.

#116 TurnerNation on 08.25.16 at 11:53 am

T2 just stated ” Poverty is sexist” and gave away 3/4 billion of our money to some overseas scam organization (saw how’s Haiti doing these days).

Gotta hand it to the elites. Perfect job of robbing and enslaving us.

#117 DisgustMadeMePost on 08.25.16 at 12:00 pm

Bank must feel like that’s a lucrative group at which to be aiming their mortgage promo! Pokemon hunting foreign students …

Do the same rules apply for locals? If I put 35% down, do I have to show income verification? I would think so but not sure.

Mortgages with these same criteria have been available in Vancouver for a long time. It is exactly what that young bank employee told me. Where does a student get a 35% down payment? In Vancouver on the Westside, where my bank acquaintance was writing these mortgages (says 90% of his mortgage business) 35% is a huge amount of money. And the monthly mortgage payments would be huge too.

No income verification?? Is FINTRAC watching all these deals? All legit money?

Just irking to think it could be that easy to launder money and no one cares where the mortgage payments come from so long as they ink their deal.

I hate that our country /banks are marketed to the world in this way. Sheesh, I feel so naive and slightly violated.

#118 Grey Dog on 08.25.16 at 12:02 pm

Sarnia: watch out for chemical soup of an environment, know of rare birth defects and cancers where diagnosing physicians scratch their heads and say “oh you live in Sarnia,” as if THAT explains the cause.

Probably fine location for us baby boomers quickly heading towards our best before date, but I wouldn’t recommend Sarnia to a young couple for a life time of living.

#119 Victor V on 08.25.16 at 12:15 pm

CIBC says it could weather housing crash of up to 30% in Canada as earnings beat expectations

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/market-moves/cibc-says-it-could-weather-housing-crash-of-up-to-30-in-canada?__lsa=4931-70fd

#120 Context on 08.25.16 at 12:18 pm

#111 Pepe: – Residential sales like auto sales will always climb when discounted in order to move the dead inventory out. Thus if sales go up watch for prices falling which is itself a hidden correction.

#121 Denise#1 on 08.25.16 at 12:23 pm

NoName on 08.25.16 at 10:52 am
#85 Denise#1 on 08.25.16 at 12:06 am

i wonder do they use same yellow helicopter from few yrs back?
====================================
Nope. Looking at the news clip, the helicopter is white & dark blue, bit of red pin-striping. Check out the link I posted :).

#122 Vancrentor on 08.25.16 at 1:42 pm

A friend is trying to buy a lakefront property in the Okanagan against my advice. He says the bank wants 50% down plus CMHC so he might bail. The banks tightening up will accelerate this correction.

#123 For those about to flop... on 08.25.16 at 1:45 pm

#73 NoName on 08.24.16 at 10:16 pm
#11 For those about to flop… on 08.24.16 at 7:06 pm

yes, when we meet we will drink beer, because we cant drink bacon.

///////////////////////

Hey NoName, I saw a segment on Woeful TV the other day how bacon flavoured cotton candy is making the rounds at the PNE.

Perhaps unsurprisingly most people thought that it was disgusting and some people wanted to spit it out.

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

A report on CNN this morning talked about how there is a 1 trillion shortfall in U.S pension plans…

M42BC

#124 Aggregator on 08.25.16 at 1:58 pm

#119 Victor V – CIBC says it could weather housing crash of up to 30% in Canada as earnings beat expectations

All the banks say they can weather a housing crash because if it does crash, the taxpayer (you) is paying for it.

#125 fleabitten monkey on 08.25.16 at 2:06 pm

Denise #121 – you come across as fearful

#126 BOOM! on 08.25.16 at 2:19 pm

#62 Flopper…..

This is what the “private” Health System gets you in the good old USA.

Yeah, decent healthcare, no waiting, and you can go anywhere your little heart (and pocketbook) desire.

You will pay for it! Decent family healthcare plan these days runs 12 grand a year plus co-pays. Yes, it is tax deductible for the most part, and of course we don’t tax with you guys unless you happen to earn more than about $400K a year as a family, then it gets close. Oh, add in your state taxes too which range from 11% in California to zero in WY, FL, NH and a few others…

Never fear, each state has designed a way to screw their inhabitants in other ways, beside a state income tax. I’ve looked into this rather closely, there is not a big difference between most states, a few yes but, who would want to live there anyway.

It is an rather unfair world – get used to it.

#127 For those about to flop... on 08.25.16 at 2:19 pm

Not much going on so will pose this question to the daytime crowd.

If you were allowed to live in the U.S which state would you try first?

I’ll say Oregon…

M42BC

#128 Bob on 08.25.16 at 2:22 pm

Interesting read…

Real Estate Price Bubble Is the Work of Media, Not Foreign Money

http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/voices/real-estate-price-bubble-is-the-work-of-media-not-foreign-money-1085410-1.html

#129 Noel on 08.25.16 at 2:23 pm

Why interest rates will never ‘normalize’.

“This matters because low inflation and a low natural interest rate limit the effectiveness of central bankers’ traditional policy lever: setting short-term interest rates. Since nominal interest rates are the sum of real rates and inflation, the rich-world central banks cannot, under today’s regime, expect their policy rates to rise much higher than 3% (the 2% inflation target plus a 1% real rate). That leaves very little room to cut when the next recession strikes. In the three most recent recessions the Fed slashed rates by 675 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point), 550 basis points, and 512 basis points.”

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21705826-rich-worlds-central-banks-need-new-target-when-2-not-enough?cid1=cust/ednew/n/bl/n/20160825n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/LA/n

#130 Bram on 08.25.16 at 3:07 pm

#122 Vancrentor on 08.25.16 at 1:42 pm
A friend is trying to buy a lakefront property in the Okanagan against my advice. He says the bank wants 50% down plus CMHC so he might bail. The banks tightening up will accelerate this correction.

Wow!
That bank has absolutely no confidence in Okanagan RE.
If it expects that property to go underwater, they estimate 100+% overvaluation in that market?
I wonder which bank that was.
You would think that either 50% down OR CMHC would be enough. But both???

Brutal.

#131 Bram on 08.25.16 at 3:17 pm

#115 Context on 08.25.16 at 11:49 am
#113 Bram:- They exist and are available in the Toronto area such as at 3050 Erin Centre Blvd.

Those seem to have not 1, but actually 2+1 = 3 bedrooms.
http://hisham.ca/17-3050-erin-centre-blvd-w3584067

One bedroom townhouses make no sense: you may just as well live in a run-of-the-mill condo.

#132 45north on 08.25.16 at 3:20 pm

What’s happening in Vancouver these days is pale fire to what we might expect in Victoria, the GTA, Hamilton and other markets in the coming months. Residential real estate was already cracking under its own bloated weight even before the BC crazies decided to slap a stamp tax on the Chinese. Now the market’s frozen.

“pale fire” never heard that before, I don’t think it’s right

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale_Fire

anyhow the mood has changed: the blog’s no longer a warning of what could come, it’s a description of what has come.

Jenny B: I know a couple who were just given a $700,000 Line of Credit to purchase a home in the GTA.

pray God they didn’t buy. You know they go back to the bank and say “we just couldn’t find the right counter top”.

Rational Optimist: If someone is in a secondary market which hasn’t advanced nearly as fast, and is balanced, is there much to be worried about? I ask this with the knowledge that the future is murky and a person might be required to sell at any time.

there damn well is a lot to be worried about. Key sentence is Now the market’s frozen. Let’s take London ON as an example: If the GTA is frozen then London is frozen. Means you cannot reliably sell your house. Or take a lesson from the crash in the US: a house impeccably maintained, at the top of its class, if put up for sale for an extended period ( like two years ) and if heavily discounted can sell.

Victor V: Shares of Home Capital Group Inc. were on a roller coaster this week after a popular investor website accused the company of hiding losses by selling bad mortgages to a firm run by one of its board members.

that got my attention

Vancrenter: A friend is trying to buy a lakefront property in the Okanagan against my advice. He says the bank wants 50% down plus CMHC so he might bail. The banks tightening up will accelerate this correction.

50% down plus CMHC! if your friend is as rich as he thinks he is the bank will take that bet!

#133 Aggregator on 08.25.16 at 3:31 pm

Ontario raising vehicle sticker renewal fee, has almost doubled since 2011

For the sixth year in a row, the Ontario government is raising the fee for renewing vehicle validation stickers.

As of Sept. 1, renewal stickers in southern Ontario will cost $120 for the year, up from $108 currently. In northern Ontario, the fee rises to $60 from $54.

    Sept. 1, 2011 – $74
    Sept. 1, 2012 – $82 +10.8%
    Sept. 1, 2013 – $90 +9.8%
    Sept. 1, 2014 – $98 +8.9%
    Sept. 1, 2015 – $108 +10.2%
    Sept. 1, 2016 – $120 +11.1%

This is not going to stop folks. So be ready for a lot more bending over.

#134 brad on 08.25.16 at 3:33 pm

Re BobC….you should know better than to ask a financial planner if it’s a good time to go to Cash. Were you expecting Garth to say “Yes BobC, actually this is a great time to go to cash. In fact I think I’ll prepare a memo and send it to all of my clients right away”

If I thought it was the right strategy, I’d do it. Fee-based advisors are not paid to trade, don’t accept commissions and have no compensation tied to performance. They’re paid to do what’s best for a client. — Garth

#135 S.Bby on 08.25.16 at 3:40 pm

#85 Denise#1

At least the realtors were not posing as buyers…

#136 Another_Shark on 08.25.16 at 3:42 pm

@ Smoking Man

Not sure if you have play Biotech but after Hillary’s tweet yesterday the whole sector went red.

When a tweet can an entire sector, you know it’s not your Grandpa’s market anymore!

#137 jess on 08.25.16 at 3:42 pm

PwC accused of missing red flags in seven-year fraud scheme
Deloitte settled similar claims over the fraud in 2013

PwC faces 3 major trials that threaten its business
By Francine McKenna
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pwc-faces-three-major-trials-that-could-put-firm-out-of-business-2016-08-12

===============
Department of Justice
Friday, June 17, 2011
Former Colonial Bank Senior Vice President Sentenced to 8 Years in Prison for Fraud Scheme
WASHINGTON – A former senior vice president and head of Colonial Bank’s Mortgage Warehouse Lending Division was sentenced today to eight years in prison for her role in a more than $2.9 billion fraud scheme that contributed to the failures of Colonial Bank and Taylor, Bean & Whitaker (TBW). Colonial Bank was one of the 25 largest banks in the United States and TBW was one of the largest privately-held mortgage lending companies in the United States in 2009.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-colonial-bank-senior-vice-president-sentenced-8-years-prison-fraud-scheme
cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s insurance fund about $4.2 billion.

====================
10b?
mirror trades
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/08/29/deutsche-banks-10-billion-scandal

#138 jess on 08.25.16 at 3:48 pm

Real Estate will have its own sector on the S&P 500 index from August 31 onwards.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-markets-new-real-estate-sector-gives-reits-a-home-2016-05-11

#139 NoName on 08.25.16 at 4:16 pm

@ 123 floppy

Pension shortfall is a old thing, every time i google “pension shortfall us” my head spins when i see all those numbers bussines insider article 7 trillion, financial times 3.4 trilion your cnn article 1 trilion…

but dont think that shortfall is scary, read up on countries that confiscated private pension funs, so funds dont get mismanaged and merge them with public pension funds.
Countries that confiscated private pensions in some shape or form Hungary, Poland, Argentina, Portugal, Irleand, Bolivia.

i know higher taxes are coming, but on brite note wind mills will save a day…

#140 salonist on 08.25.16 at 4:31 pm

do all banking online, today I was at sobeys, had cheques with me,so decided to go into the bank

cibc new bank machines

don’t know if there installed in other locations
3rd line and upper middle by sobeys

have a couple of deposits..look around…no envelopes
I’m stumped
had girl, come out and says to enter your pin
and press deposit
and put one cheque on top of the other ( can take 50 at a time)
the machine scans each cheque adds up the total ( no idea how)
exit with receipt gives you the deposit with scan of each deposited item.
then I need to take out a $1000.00
press withdraw..gives amount of up to $400.00 to withdraw and then other.keep pressing other over and over and machine just says do you need more time
so withdrew 2 $400.00 amounts and then $200.00
go inside,only 1 teller working , (usually 3 tellers) and a floater at an info booth..sort of teller function as well.
she says pressing the other amount does nothing and I have to enter a dollar figure
not sure what else this banking machine does

automation,seems several tellers no longer receiving a paycheque?

#141 Barb on 08.25.16 at 4:32 pm

Just received this CIBC email:

“As one of our most valued customers, we’d like to offer you the CIBC Aventura Visa Infinite Card with a pre-approved credit limit of $20,000.”

Deleted it.

#142 Sucks to be You! on 08.25.16 at 4:47 pm

Biggest pile of BS I just read.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/real-estate-vancouver-housing-market-slow-down-foreign-buyers-tax-1.3735213

#143 Context on 08.25.16 at 4:56 pm

#127 For those about to flop:- West Virginia, because the women are sweeter than honey.

#144 Smoking Man on 08.25.16 at 5:23 pm

#136 Another_Shark on 08.25.16 at 3:42 pm
@ Smoking Man

Not sure if you have play Biotech but after Hillary’s tweet yesterday the whole sector went red.

When a tweet can an entire sector, you know it’s not your Grandpa’s market anymore!
……

No its not. I built a multi twitter app that sends me instant notifications, just enter multiple topics in the scan windows.

Get the news 45 minutes before Bloomberg or Rueters.

This may sound morbid, but easy money is money.

Biggest hauls I’ve made are plane crashes. You get the news moments after it happens. Huge short on airline before anyone knows Airline stock always tanks after a crash. Quick in, quick out.. Guaranteed money…

Gambling pays if you know what your doing.

#145 Metaxa on 08.25.16 at 5:30 pm

Not much going on so will pose this question to the daytime crowd.

If you were allowed to live in the U.S which state would you try first?

I’ll say Oregon…

Coastal Oregon.
Get yourself over the Cascades, heading inland towards Idaho, etc and it get pretty banjo playing like.

Nothing against banjo playing, I just don’t much care for it tho…

#146 fleabitten monkey on 08.25.16 at 5:35 pm

#142 Sucks 2 b u – I agree a ridiculous piece. Its the people supporting the RE biz trying to calm the BC public and give them confidence RE will continue its ascent so keep on buying folks! Only asset class in CDN history to never revert to its mean value. Ignore the fundamentals everything is fine…

#147 For those about to flop... on 08.25.16 at 5:54 pm

#143 Context on 08.25.16 at 4:56 pm
#127 For those about to flop:- West Virginia, because the women are sweeter than honey.

///////////////////////////

Hey Context ,not sure if there is any innuendo in your answer but thanks for your response.

I just recently visited Virginia for the first time and it was worth the effort and the people we meet made the trip.

One of the reasons I asked the question is because VREU seems to think that the hotter the state the better but I don’t mind some heat from growing up in Australia but my wife hates it ,so while we like to visit Arizona and Florida we don’t ever talk about buying property there…

I’ll take a wild guess and say Boom chooses WI…

M42BC

#148 For those about to flop... on 08.25.16 at 5:59 pm

#145 Metaxa on 08.25.16 at 5:30 pm
Not much going on so will pose this question to the daytime crowd.

If you were allowed to live in the U.S which state would you try first?

I’ll say Oregon…

Coastal Oregon.
Get yourself over the Cascades, heading inland towards Idaho, etc and it get pretty banjo playing like.

Nothing against banjo playing, I just don’t much care for it tho…

/////////////////////////////

Yeah I have been over that way a few times.

I don’t mind visiting Bend but don’t think I would want to live over there.

I was thinking more Portland area but it’s just a hypothetical question to see if VREU’s theory that we all want to head as south as possible holds up.

I doubt it…

M42BC

#149 Denise#1 on 08.25.16 at 7:19 pm

fleabitten monkey on 08.25.16 at 2:06 pm
Denise #121 – you come across as fearful
====================================
And you come across as a troll.

#150 westcdn on 08.25.16 at 7:29 pm

I think the true heroes are those that get up in the morning and do the mundane things (job) again for family despite numerous parasites. I just know that human nature hasn’t changed since recorded history and there will always be those wanting something for nothing. Fortunately, there are a few Ghandi to offset.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/struggling-fish-and-chips-shop-booming-after-patron-s-post-goes-viral-1.3043632

Speaking of income taxes, I pay more than when I was working for employment income. My retirement income exceeds my former employment income but I don’t have CPP, EI or union dues to pay. My pensions (including CPP) are far less than my investment income and RRSP withdrawals. I got my first demand for installment payments – bless their tiny souls. My mistake, I made voluntary installment payments but ended up short of the $3,000 net tax owing limit by a $100. Now I have to satisfy faceless bureaucrats for a couple of years. A few of us are just tax cows which I resent.

#151 NoName on 08.25.16 at 7:35 pm

@floppy

@floppy

after watching miranda sings trying to baco. cotton candy i have to agree with you, it was discussting.
i apologize!

#152 You're Nuts on 08.26.16 at 8:52 am

Is that a Charizard?!?!?!

#153 Context on 08.26.16 at 2:44 pm

Oregon is a basket case as those living there can’t wait to get out and those left behind are losers. Bend is where the wealthy retire from all over USA and lots of strange people live there. Its expensive living there and watch out for those weirdos.

#154 Context on 08.26.16 at 6:43 pm

Did someone say the Portland word? Go to you tube and enter Portland weird. You will be kept busy for a very long time as you must research where you are going. The movie One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest was produced at the State Hospital in Salem and today they have budget problems so are let out early with most going to Portland.