The mess

MESS modified

Notes from the edge. (Of the coming mess.)

How much of an impact has the Chinese Dudes Crash Tax has on Van real estate in the last 17 days? Judge for yourself.

Rob Chipman’s a veteran YVR realtor with Coronet Realty, running a stats-drenched site where he uploads daily deal numbers for both the Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards. In addition to telling you how many sales happen every 24 hours, the price and days-on-market, he also tabulates the sell-to-list ratio.

Here is his explanation of what that means:

“The sell/list is a simple measure of demand that divides a given number of sales by the number of new listings taken during the same period. It is expressed as a percentage. In a hot market, we sell more properties than we list, so the number exceeds 100%. Markets like that commonly see multiple offers over list price. Slow markets, on the other hand are characterized by low sell/lists, below 35%.”

The Friday before the tax was sprung on an unsuspecting market, the sell/list ratio was 121.15%. The average for this week is just 51.2%.

Ouch.

As this pathetic blog pointed out in the weeks prior to the tax being announced, the Lower Mainland market was starting to roll over, with sales of detached homes plunging even while prices shot to new, dizzying heights. All it needed was a shove to topple over the cliff of buyer despair and seller greed. While foreign buyers represent less than 10% of sales, they account for 100% of FOMO. Wiping that level of activity away – or seriously diminishing it – is more than enough to advance the evolution of a dying market. Good job, government!

Did you get out of Van when I warned you to?

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Or Langley?

Real estate in this butt-ugly Van burb is emblematic of the region. Prices have wobbled insanely higher over the past year, while sales have been toppling in recent months. Not good. Detached home transactions plunged 34.2% last month from just the month before, townhouses were down 40% and condos off 24%. Meanwhile a detached home in this wilderness now averages just fifty grand shy of a million, up 36.8% since last summer. Higher prices on thinning volume. Beware.

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Meanwhile in Richmond, probable epicentre of the HAM invasion that scared the locals into bidding wars, the news is equally dismal. Realtor Steve Saretsky reports in a Tweet: “As of right now, since Foreign tax introduced July 25, 11 detached sales in Burnaby, 15 in Richmond.”

And there are 783 active listings. At this point, that’s a two-year supply of houses. #PrayForSellers.

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So what happens to the banks if this West Coast dive takes on national implications?

“We believe falling home prices would trigger a spike in loan losses, not from residential mortgage lending, but rather from unsecured household debt and household loans secured by other collateral,” says National Bank analyst Peter Routledge. The shock of a real estate rout “could quickly infect the broader Canadian economy.”

“As home prices start to fall,” he told the weenies at BNN, “people get a little bit more conservative – they stop spending. When they stop spending, the economy starts to shrink.”

Great. With the loss of 110,000 full-time jobs in the last two months, a record trade deficit and the GDP already contracting, that’s the last thing we need.

By the way, Routledge says the bank most vulnerable to a YVR meltdown is… CIBC.

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Speaking of which, that bank’s economist Avery Shenfield on Thursday issued his own warning about “important negatives” which are hitting the economy because house prices are just too damn high.

“A younger generation of yet-to-be homeowners faces the need for greater savings to build a down payment, cutting into their room for consumption,” he writes. “The lack of affordable housing for the next generation of workforce entrants could act as an impediment to business growth, or encourage businesses to locate elsewhere. And fears that a steep climb today risks a harder landing for house prices down the road could inject caution in lending that acts as an economic headwind.”

There ya go. Nothing good about what we have allowed to happen. Norr any easy way out.

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Donna saw that first-hand, in Calgary, where she was an enumerator for the federal census this summer. Guess what? She’s also a branch-level employee of the same bank, plus a happy tenant whose landlord just cut the rent.

“As an enumerator for the census I had to do our high density inner city, trendy neighbourhood in the south….LOTS of unoccupied buildings, even the lovely 1 million plus infills,” she says. “Two shops on our little high street are closing “due to the recession”  and hubby’s consulting engineering office (non oil and gas – whew) were offered pay-utilities-only  if they wanted to move to new office tower. It’s claimed we’re not  over developed, we’re under demolished here in Calgary!”

The office vacancy rate in Cowtown is now 21.6%. There’s a 15-year supply. Too much real estate, not enough jobs. Guess how this ends?

185 comments ↓

#1 Darryl on 08.11.16 at 4:38 pm

LOL at picture

#2 Joe2.0 on 08.11.16 at 4:43 pm

Vancouver will do just fine.
Lots of money out there on this globe coming this way.
Americans and Chinese buying up Sunshine Coast.
Canadian peso is only going to hurt Canadians.

#3 mouldyinYVR on 08.11.16 at 4:52 pm

When will we be hit?………imagining the ‘impossible’…..
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/at-risk-bc-municipalities-consider-earthquake-coverage/article31347286/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/earthquake-insurance-report-1.3705332
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/major-earthquake-in-b-c-or-quebec-would-cost-billions-devastate-insurance-industry-study
The BIG One’s a coming……..better get that insurance and prepare plan B……..as our condo newsletter continually reminds us….’you are on your own in the event of an earthquake’..(so comforting!)

#4 PDX Canuck on 08.11.16 at 4:54 pm

How does this end? Not well. Just look at the after effects of the US real estate crash of 2008:

– Home ownership peaked nationally at 69%
– It’s below 61% now
– The historical average is 63%

Home ownership in Canada is well north of 70%

Garth’s message of diversity, and not treating your home as an ATM or growth stock, are spot on.

The subsequent bursting of the bubble could last decades in Canada.

PS. Currently visiting Tokyo. The place where real estate prices are still well below 1990 levels.

#5 Ray Skunk on 08.11.16 at 4:54 pm

Just the right time for T2 to be over in China trying to ramp up and expedite an increased flow of TFWs to heap downward pressure on wages and the job market – days after the woeful employment numbers came out.

You know, the same TFWs that Liberal supporters lambasted Harper for bringing in. So he put limits on. Limits that Junior is now scrapping, as part of his undo-anything-Harper-did crusade.

Sunny ways my friends!

#6 John Kennedy on 08.11.16 at 4:55 pm

Here’s my guess: it ends with lower prices. What do I win?

#7 Jimmy on 08.11.16 at 4:56 pm

First!!

#8 Doug in London on 08.11.16 at 5:02 pm

Hey, it worked, the tax did what it intended to do so why is that so bad? For years the over bloated up Vancouver area market was like a rock delicately balanced on a cliff. This tax was like the gentle push that sent it over the edge when, if left alone it would have fallen off sooner or later. Let’s get this correction over with to purge the excess out of the economy and clear the way for a good U.S. style recovery. Does anyone wonder why the United States economy is doing good while other economies flounder? It’s because they got housing costs back to reality, lowering the cost of doing business so employers could afford to hire staff and business could flourish again. Bring it on!!!!!!!

#9 Chaddywack on 08.11.16 at 5:09 pm

Meanwhile a house in East Van down the street from a family member is listed for $1,888,888 (about 1.1M more than the July 2015 assessed value).

It seems like even East Van is beyond specialist doctors now…..

#10 JSS on 08.11.16 at 5:09 pm

is Dream Office, owner of lots of office space in trouble? i think they cut their dividend?

#11 Aggregator on 08.11.16 at 5:12 pm

Too much real estate, not enough jobs. Guess how this ends?

When you have a majority government who's willing to run a deficit and spend money, it ends in currency devaluation. The Business Development Bank of Canada and ATB Financial are about to throw $1B dollars in helicopter loans to Albertans. That's a big number.

I've been watching this market for too long and I see the same thing every time it's about to decline: big banks insuring bulk mortgages, govt commits to more housing subsidies, fiscal spending and increasing immigration. Several months later, home prices continue upward.

The only force that can take down Canada's housing market is the bond market. Other then that the government will just keep spending and inflating the economy away.

#12 iRent on 08.11.16 at 5:16 pm

Just a thought, Is it possible for Govt. to encourage investment in the Canadian Economy by these wealthy foreigners instead of Real Estate perhaps by giving tax break on capital gains to wealthy from outside the country ?

#13 bdwy sktrn on 08.11.16 at 5:18 pm

have not bailed on van and don’t intend to.

no crash, hardly a correction to come.

looking at kneejerk reaction of a few days after a massive shock means nothing.

van prices will continue higher. sales may never return to the white hot levels of recent months (tax or no tax – it), but prices don’t get dented.

i am seeing a few more listing than normal, but anyone who needed to sell for the cash did so over the last 5 yrs.
current sellers are in no hurry. no deals here.

#14 Deals collapsing on 08.11.16 at 5:21 pm

FOMO has been replaced by FONS

Fear Of No Sale

or

FOND = Fear Of No Deal

To that chap further up posting how Vancouver, the burbs and now Sunshine Coast will never ever run out of dumb overseas buyers …. the world does not evolve around Vancouver! It’s done pal, IT IS DONE.

#15 Dean Fairmaine on 08.11.16 at 5:24 pm

Garth how to do know all foreign buyers are 100% FOMO? First time I have heard this.

Also, REITs selling off nicely. Time to finally start a position in the next little while and add slowly on weakness now.

#16 iwil on 08.11.16 at 5:26 pm

“The Friday before the tax was sprung on an unsuspecting market, the sell/list ratio was 121.15%. The average for this week is just 51.2%.”

I think this just shows how many foreign buyers are buying Van RE. Right Garth? So maybe not as low as you keep saying…..

It shows downward momentum. Markets fueled by emotion are funny that way. Crazy tops. Fast bottoms. — Garth

#17 Joseph R. on 08.11.16 at 5:34 pm

“The office vacancy rate in Cowtown is now 21.6%. There’s a 15-year supply. Too much real estate, not enough jobs. Guess how this ends?”

If history is an indicator, The Empire State Building in NY started construction on March 1930 (6 months after Black Tuesday) and was completed in April 1931. The owners made more money of the Observation Deck than in tenant rent of the first few years.

It only managed to turn profitable in 1950.

I hope the developers of the new Brookfield Tower in downtown Calgary have thought of putting an observation deck.

#18 Context on 08.11.16 at 5:40 pm

Bank Loans:- Let us not forget the interim loan advances to the builders who are constructing those condo towers across Canada as now we are talking big money. I see one condo tower completed in Toronto that has not sold out in a AAA location. Instead they are being rented out and sold at bargain prices. What could go wrong? Next door the same builder has one in the early stages of completion say 50%. Did the bank hold back his bridge financing because he is in a bit of trouble with cash flow and performance?

#19 Adam on 08.11.16 at 5:40 pm

Suddenly Garth is warming up to the idea of HAM causing Vancouver real estate crisis. He still isn’t quite there yet, but once this party crashes he will realize what people who actually LIVE in Vancouver knew all along – it was Asian money doing all the dirty work.

Hardly. You just think it was. — Garth

#20 bdwy sktrn on 08.11.16 at 5:43 pm

#4 PDX Canuck on 08.11.16 at 4:54 pm

PS. Currently visiting Tokyo. The place where real estate prices are still well below 1990 levels.
——————————————
if we cut off all immigration and get trudeau and wynne to say “canada is one race, one civilization, one language and one culture”, as did the nihon PM and tokyo gov have said publicly, then prices may go down (as they did there)

#21 Doug t on 08.11.16 at 5:46 pm

This country has been waaaayyy over due for a correction – at the beginning of the year we entered a cycle of stagnation that will get worse and last for several years AT least

#22 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.11.16 at 5:46 pm

Depressing blog today Gartho. It’s rare that I say this but sometimes, just sometimes, Canadians are pathetic and an embarassment

#23 SunShowers on 08.11.16 at 5:53 pm

“While foreign buyers represent less than 10% of sales, they account for 100% of FOMO. ”

Already I’ve had to explain this to 3 people at work who are convinced that the reason Vancouver is teetering is because the foreign buyer tax is actually curtailing foreign buyers, rather than making locals panic.

#24 PDX Canuck on 08.11.16 at 5:55 pm

@Doug: wasn’t the clean in the US. Millions of foreclosures, bankruptcies and dislocated families. The resulting high unemployment rates drive up substance abuse, broken families, suicides.

While the US is better now, after 8 years, in aggregate, there are still tens of millions that have not recovered. Unfortunately, they have formed the core of Trump supporters.

There won’t be a soft landing in Canada, esp Vancouver. The correction is just starting to pick up steam, I’m afraid…

#25 Crdt on 08.11.16 at 5:57 pm

Langley being a butt ugly van burb.. Legions of local mortgage owners would call them “fighting words”. I’ve recently heard from not just a few how this is the best place on earth… How dare you sir?

#26 Michael King on 08.11.16 at 5:58 pm

On May 30th an acquaintance listed his lovely contemporary style house near 30th and Dunbar in Vancouver’s West Side. The asking price was 3.65 million and he was confident that it would sell quickly and over the asking price. A year ago that scenario would have likely played out. This week the house was de-listed and should re-appear soon with a lower price. I’m 63 and have seen many RE and stock market bubbles and crashes. Garth has been absolutely correct. It is NEVER different this time is it? Even with all the offshore capital that has arrived and continues to come to Vancouver, this city is in for some nasty times. The young are leaving in droves.

#27 Chill Garth, Your Bad News is Good News on 08.11.16 at 6:06 pm

Garth, relax already. . .the prices need to correct so that the average family can afford to buy a house, man drop your 1% attitude already, it’s getting a little old. But, I still love your blog, so don’t get your thirsty’s in a knot.

#28 james on 08.11.16 at 6:12 pm

“Routledge says the bank most vulnerable to a YVR meltdown is… CIBC.”

I want to know what is in store for the credit unions.

From what I have heard, Vancity and other credit unions were giving out mortgages to anyone who could fog a mirror. Cash back, 0% down, etc.

Did they securitize and sell their mortgages? I don’t recall Harper’s govt buying from credit unions during the 80+ billion dollar subsidy a few years back, but I could be wrong.

#29 Arb Watson on 08.11.16 at 6:13 pm

Party like its 1999. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq make record highs on the same day.

Now it will be interesting if markets get irrational here. Dow a run to 20K then a correction?

#30 Mark on 08.11.16 at 6:14 pm

Foreign participation in Vancouver’s RE market was minimal to begin with. But with these tax changes (which aren’t likely to collect even their cost of administration), even the Indo-Canadian speculators, who have been responsible for much of the bubble, are now spooked. People like Realtor/Speculator “Khalid” are soiling their knickers at this point owning “15 to 20 houses, primarily for resale”, knowing that the game is now far beyond expired (Vancouver house prices stopped appreciating 3 years ago and the only ‘increases’ seen since have been due to sales mix changes!).

The next step is outright deflation of the Canadian economy, and a much higher CAD$ as people go into a long-term austerity mode. Bye-bye middle class “higher-end casual” dining. Bye-bye motorhome dealers. Bye-bye aspirational car brands being so ubiquitous.

As the tide goes out though, we’ll see who is truly wealthy, and who was just faking it all along. With Canada’s ridiculous levels of personal debt, there were obviously a lot of fakers.

#31 Concessionman on 08.11.16 at 6:14 pm

How it ends? Anyone’s guess.
One Dream turning into a nightmare…

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/dream-office-reit-turns-to-nightmare-for-investors-after-massive-writedown

#32 Andrew on 08.11.16 at 6:15 pm

Garth already preparing has his “out” for when the housing market crashes because of the foreign tax.

“It was already crashing before the tax was introduced”

“It was only because FOMO disappeared DUE TO the tax, not the tax itself, that caused the crash”

Go read the posts written before the tax existed. Stick a fork in it. — Garth

#33 Mark on 08.11.16 at 6:19 pm

“From what I have heard, Vancity and other credit unions were giving out mortgages to anyone who could fog a mirror. Cash back, 0% down, etc.”

As I’ve written here many times, the credit unions are particularly vulnerable due to their lack of geographic diversification, business-line diversification, funding diversification, and even asset class diversification. In short, the credit unions generally have their eggs all in one basket, and that is, local lending either against RE (ie: mortgages), or to small business that is heavily involved in the business of RE.

I personally believe the best case scenario for the depositors in some of the most bubbly credit unions is that the government quid pro quos the big-5 into taking them over, at a loss, to keep the depositors relatively whole and prevent political calamity. Otherwise those credit unions will be resolved through a debt to equity swap (sometimes called a ‘bail-in’), which for a credit union, legally is highly problematic.

#34 Scott in Gibsons on 08.11.16 at 6:20 pm

All the conditions still exist. Low low interest rates , CMHC risk coverage, and piles of cash in China looking for a hiding spot. The market gives back a bit from last year’s spike and prices stay (a bit less) stupidly high. Besides, foreign buyers are only 5% right?

#35 Context on 08.11.16 at 6:20 pm

The speculators in Toronto are nowhere to be seen and are having nervous breakdowns holding the bag. To rent out or dump or are they waiting for one more pop to blast out? I am looking at one condo for sale among many in a dream location. Just a one bedroom with the glass bay window; 15th floor; condo fees $278; asking $439,000; and listed for 117 days. $400,000 might take it. They are asking too much so will see what is selling on the next street south; no will not be buying anything as am no fool.

#36 common sense on 08.11.16 at 6:30 pm

#22 WALMARK OF SADKATOON:

Please don’t generalize and lump “ALL Canadians” into the “sad” and “pathetic” bunch.

I hope a majority of blog dawgs here did not fall into the trap..

#37 Self Directed on 08.11.16 at 6:31 pm

#13 bdwy sktrn on 08.11.16 at 5:18 pm

have not bailed on van and don’t intend to.

no crash, hardly a correction to come.

looking at kneejerk reaction of a few days after a massive shock means nothing.

van prices will continue higher. sales may never return to the white hot levels of recent months (tax or no tax – it), but prices don’t get dented.

i am seeing a few more listing than normal, but anyone who needed to sell for the cash did so over the last 5 yrs.
current sellers are in no hurry. no deals here.
——————————-
I’m watching some listings sit on market for 60+ days. They are stubborn as all heck. One guy, dropped is price 38K from a ridiculous greedy price to a slightly less greedy one. Maybe no dents, but no offers either. Hoping for a uninformed buyer. How many sellers have that much time on their hands, especially in a market that relies on quick sell-buy exchanges. These are strong bubble characteristics… a few more negative surprises and this thing is going to correct big. Bowdy, if your property is an investment…. you know what to do.

#38 Victor V on 08.11.16 at 6:31 pm

To find a dream home in Toronto, they had to double their original budget and get into a bidding war:

https://www.facebook.com/torontolife/posts/10153597117060213

#39 Shawn on 08.11.16 at 6:34 pm

Progress?

#17 Joseph R. on 08.11.16 at 5:34 pm said:

The Empire State Building in NY started construction on March 1930 (6 months after Black Tuesday) and was completed in April 1931.

*******************************************

So the Empire State Building was built in 13 months back then. With all the improvements in technology and construction methods, how long might it take to build the exact same building today in a City of similar population to NYC in 1930?

My guess, at very least three years.

Similarly, the Alaska Highway got built in under a year. Today, a few miles of Highway with a bridge and some ramps is about two years minimum.

Some things are a lot faster today. But in some cases it is hard to see the progress.

Where is the progress in the productivity of building a house? So many things are down in price but the labour to build a house is WAY up despite any productivity improvements. Shouldn’t the hours to build a house be WAY down with technology?

#40 WUL on 08.11.16 at 6:43 pm

On Calgary’s downtown office vacancy rate, I am not sure if Garth’s 15 year supply number takes into account the 2 million square feet of space under construction.

There will be a bitter reminder or two or a few of this era on the streetscape of downtown Cowtown for a decade or so. My fellow Calgarians will remember well that hulking concrete frame which stood for many years on the corner of 5th Ave. S.W. at about 9th or 10th street, now the Catholic School Board building. I forget which oil collapse era gave us that hollowed out monument.

#41 Ardy on 08.11.16 at 6:44 pm

I have never heard a homeowner, seller or potential buyer talk about sales numbers. They are only concerned about the price.

Are prices going up or down, is their only thought.

There aren’t enough home owners desperate to sell to move prices substantially lower.

It will take widespread unemployment to cause the downward spiral to begin………..not sales numbers.

#42 Lindsay on 08.11.16 at 6:45 pm

Things seem different in Ontario now too, Garth.

My sister-in-law works at a property tax counter in the GTA, where people or their real estate lawyers bring in their forms and documents to close accounts so they can transfer houses.

She tells me there has been a dramatic upswing the last few months in people having huge unpaid property tax bills, often many years, to pay off as they sell their homes. It seems the only way they are getting out of this debt is now to sell their properties. And the lineups have been out the door and down the hall on quite a few days. People are unloading homes just to wipe out credit card and other debt more and more, she thinks. And property sale values are flat and declining compared to assessed values.

Also, interestingly, she has noticed a steady stream of Italian contractor-types coming in to close off their property sales, people she often knows through friends as there are a lot of Italians in the area like her.

Perhaps these folks with their noses so deep in real estate construction know something that others don’t?

#43 Context on 08.11.16 at 6:45 pm

I want to give you all a laugh as this guy uses the name professional who just put an ad up selling his prime condo. He must be using Win 10 as my last update crashed my system and they changed my Outlook. AAA area selling a 2 bedroom 2 bath as at August 11, 2016 and its high and prime in a great location asking $410,000. I know where its located and the address, but clicked his mapping button. It took me to his workplace instead. Ontario Government and will not disclose his or her exact branch, as might be a woman instead as believe in equal opportunity for all.

#44 rainclouds on 08.11.16 at 6:48 pm

# 2Joe ” Americans and Chinese buying up Sunshine Coast.”

Riiight and a bridge is coming too. ANY data to back up your comment ?

Prediction: When Van RE rolls, idiots who used their equity in Van to buy a cottage will be in full panic mode.

No bidding wars, just crickets.

#45 vulcan without ears on 08.11.16 at 7:12 pm

It’s time also to short cm (cibc)
Target: 60$

#46 randy on 08.11.16 at 7:16 pm

The Cdn Ponzi Plan – Enhanced Version.

CPP net return on investments ( 3 months ended June 30) was 1.45 per cent, well below its long-term performance over the past decade, but better than during the first quarter of 2015-16 when its net return was negative 0.2 per cent.

Imagine if the markets weren’t at all-time highs ?

#47 Builder Bob on 08.11.16 at 7:22 pm

And there are still 2 cranes way up in the YYC skyline for the planes to avoid! Those buildings won’t be completed for a while but when they are, where are they going to find tenants?

I hear Cenovus is moving into one of them but that is just going to leave the Bow almost empty. It’s half empty now so many people have been laid off. Maybe no empty floors but there are a lot of empty desks.

In a stunning development parking at the Bow dropped from $500/month to $350/month. When do parking rates ever fall in Calgary? Traditionally Calgary has some of the highest parking rates in North America. Even the University tries to ding the students for $6 a day.

There is an old feeling in Calgary that whenever we get a new tallest building, we’re in for 7 years of bad luck. When the then Petro Canada tower first rose above the Calgary tower, it was followed with a lost decade, the 80’s. Many people never returned to their former fields of work. Then the Bow rose above the now Suncor tower and they stopped going up 6 floors early so bad things began to look. there is a curse brought upon the city every time we get a new tallest building.

Actually the curse is brought about by the hubris that leads to all this buildings but that’s part of the cycle I guess. You can also measure where we are in the cycle by the number of monster trucks with balls hanging from the hitch. These $90,000 black smoke blowing monstrosities are not being purchased by construction workers who managed to put in a bit of overtime. They are being bought by 25 year olds who made $150,000 a year working up north on the rigs. Well, those rigs have all been laid down now.

Incidentally those monster trucks are an interesting case study in how wild things were during the boom. In the old days, off-roaders would find an old beat up 4×4 or old jeeps are popular for this as well, and jack them up themselves in the garage. Nobody would think of taking a brand new truck into the bush. But when you hand a 25 year old red neck that kind of money all sorts of things can happen. It’s like the Beverly Hillbillies was a study in human psychology after all.

#48 Another Look on 08.11.16 at 7:25 pm

Even the feds know that the BC foreign buyer tax will not stop the price appreciation :)

http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/vancouver-real-estate-doubts-about-foreign-buyer-tax-leave-trudeau-in-bind

#49 brad on 08.11.16 at 7:28 pm

Point of interest is that this pathetic blog has rejected the effect chinese dudes have on the Van market for as long as I can remember and yet the reality is now clear that the chinese dudes are responsible for feuling the market forcing young families to assume huge mortgages. Man up, if you’re big enough and admit you were wrong.

I wasn’t, and nothing of the sort is “now clear.” — Garth

#50 jay on 08.11.16 at 7:29 pm

Why does it matter if there is a foreign buyer tax ,according to Chrusty and Crew foreign buyer is only 5% of buyers of real estate in Vancouver.

#51 Wild albertan gonads on 08.11.16 at 7:30 pm

#39 Shawn on 08.11.16 at 6:34 pm
Progress?

#17 Joseph R. on 08.11.16 at 5:34 pm said:

The Empire State Building in NY started construction on March 1930 (6 months after Black Tuesday) and was completed in April 1931.

*******************************************

So the Empire State Building was built in 13 months back then. With all the improvements in technology and construction methods, how long might it take to build the exact same building today in a City of similar population to NYC in 1930?

My guess, at very least three years.

Similarly, the Alaska Highway got built in under a year. Today, a few miles of Highway with a bridge and some ramps is about two years minimum.

Some things are a lot faster today. But in some cases it is hard to see the progress.

Where is the progress in the productivity of building a house? So many things are down in price but the labour to build a house is WAY up despite any productivity improvements. Shouldn’t the hours to build a house be WAY down with technology?
..
Empire State Building was Smazing how fast it was built. Golden gate Bridge as well.

Amazing feats. No computers. Just get to it fabulous engineers amazing workers. Less regulations.
One difference is workers died!

#52 fleabitten monkey on 08.11.16 at 7:31 pm

#2 Joe 2.0 – I agree, Van will do just fine. Simply wiping out the 30 pct plus YoY gains over the last year will have allowed all buyers prior to that point to still have done just fine. However, those who recently bought will feel like they’ve been bent over a stool and had a Louisville plugged into you know where.

#53 Jesse Sorrenson on 08.11.16 at 7:33 pm

To Aggregator

The Canadian bond market is at almost all time lows in yields and keeps getting worse.

Canada bond yields finished today with 2, 5, 10, 20, 30 year at 0.53%, 0.62%, 1.03%, 1.63%, 1.64%.

Last time August-11-2015 these were all at least 0.6% higher or more.

The 30 year Canada bond was around 2.25% this time last year.

Even so there were repeated times on this blog and by many economists, analysts that there would be higher interest rates by now.

Depending on the bond market to fix real estate is like depending on Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau on cutting Canada’s national debt and cutting taxes.

It is a pipe dream for sure. It will not happen!

#54 Dunx on 08.11.16 at 7:34 pm

From a North Van Realtor Newsletter

“We have already seen the impact of this tax on sales in North Vancouver. Though the market was starting to cool as of mid June, this new tax has brought the market to a near hault. Since the tax was announced 2 weeks ago, there have only been 11 sales of detached properties in all of North Vancouver. Compare that to 40 in the 2 weeks prior and 52 in the 2 weeks before that. “

#55 Willy H on 08.11.16 at 7:35 pm

Great. With the loss of 110,000 full-time jobs in the last two months, a record trade deficit and the GDP already contracting, that’s the last thing we need.
___ ___ ___ ___ ___

This may be exactly what our housing market needs. A good old fashioned (partly self-induced) recession. Neither interest rates or the massive spike in oil prices (prior to the 2014/15 OPEC production increase) have managed to temper markets in any way. With Brexit in the mix the increase in interest rates by the Fed will be glacial in my opinion, notwithstanding the next surprise market shock just around the corner.

Housing prices continue inflate in the GTA putting us well beyond a soft controlled landing.

#56 Context on 08.11.16 at 7:36 pm

#43 Context :- This a small correction as did some more homework and confused the exact location with a tower built that connects to that street with a plaza; it is on the opposite side of the street with mapping and a sign up. It is in a pre-sale condition with financing in place and the land was assembled awaiting for certain government approvals as at June 16, 2016. Why would someone be flipping the contract at such an early stage when all prices started in the $400,000 range for smaller units than a 2 bedroom 2 bath?

#57 The Original Dave on 08.11.16 at 7:37 pm

Can anyone explain this to me, I drive around a particular area in Toronto. One street has 5 for sale signs and has had them for weeks. If you go on the mls site, none of them are listed. No red dots. What’s going on?

#58 Brian on 08.11.16 at 7:44 pm

Just because the HAM tax was introduced and a huge reduction followed does not mean a withdrawal of HAM $$ caused the reduction NOR does it mean HAM $$ caused the run-up – it is a signal and a group psychological phenomenon – YVR real estate has been taking 1 hit after another over the last year or more – the HAM tax is the final little push

#59 macroman on 08.11.16 at 7:46 pm

#14 Deals collapsing, howaboot

FUKD …Fear U Kissed Dough…goodbye

#60 steerage steward on 08.11.16 at 7:46 pm

While the Chinese media does acknowledge that Chinese buyers are a contributing factor to our prices — and admit they have been capitalizing on it — they also point out some interesting observations that our media has failed to cover.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/stephen-punwasi/canadian-housing-crash_b_11349292.html

#61 Dave on 08.11.16 at 7:48 pm

Rob Chipman used to have a popular RE blog in van city.
To Quote Rob….the cure for high prices, is high prices.
And I think that’s where we are at with SFD in van. Now townhouses and condos are what average joe can afford. They will be the last to see falling sales, but first to see price drops.
I don’t see much more than a 25%drop in van, take us back to prices 2014/15.
I like Langley, looked at a townhouse in late 2014, nothing much moving, lots for sale….. Oops.
$100k later, should have bought then….oh well
No rush…..

#62 Miss Construed on 08.11.16 at 7:59 pm

The stupidity never ends. Really people? Why buy? Everyone is crazy.

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/the-chase-forest-hill-north/

#63 Ace Goodheart on 08.11.16 at 8:06 pm

The entire Vancouver housing situation, to a large extent, has actually been a wealth transfer. I am wondering if anyone has seen this? What has happened, is money has been transferred from Canadian Banks, into the hands of older people and realtors, using young folks as a convenient proxy.

Banks now own most of Vancouver, with the actual land titles held by people who are to a large extent less than serfs. These people are basically indentured slave labour. They must continue working, and must pay the highest income taxes in the Country, and whatever the prevailing interest rate is. If they stop working, their lives are completely destroyed. Some more so than others (many professionals cannot be bankrupt without losing their ability to practice).

On another note, if you are buying a condo in Toronto, have a look at who actually owns the dirt underneath your concrete box . It may not be who you think it is (or should be).

#64 YVR prices will never fall! on 08.11.16 at 8:15 pm

http://m.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/1995284/ten-year-canadian-visas-chinese-nationals-hit-almost

400,000 per year.

6 months in Canada….vacation in Mexico…6 months on Canada…vacation in Mexico….

Repeat.

Rents are going to spike now.

#65 Saint Herb on 08.11.16 at 8:20 pm

Prices in Vaughan are only going up from what I see. An end unit Townhouse is selling for just under 1M. That is crazy! House I rent is going for 1.2M even more crazy! McMansons going for 1.6M. Only thing I’ve noticed that’s changed is not as many selling for way over asking. Now they are selling for about asking price, but the asking price is much higher. They are not expecting bidding wars, they just ask for the ridicules price upfront.

I was just asked today by a family member when I was going to buy. The prices are only going higher, so I better buy now….

I’ve been waiting over 3 years to buy, and can’t because they have been just going higher. I don’t have an answer when they ask, without sounding arrogant and stupid at the same time. Arrogant because they think I am greedy for selling my 2 homes and keeping the money and renting. Stupid because the house market has worked against me all these years since with ever increasing prices and i’ve been “wasting” money on rent all these years.

My portfolio is invested, but hasn’t covered my rental costs yet. I hope the investments keep growing like they have been lately.

I hear house prices are low in Nova Scotia. Was thinking of getting a summer home on the Ocean. Went for a vacation once and loved it there.
Is it a good time to buy, or would the prices in Nova Scotia go even lower if this bubble finally bursts? Or would PEI be better?
Which would be better?
Anyone know the best ocean front cottage locations in NS or PEI?

#66 mike from Mtl on 08.11.16 at 8:29 pm

I will believe any sort of correction when ‘I’ see it, Mtl RE might not make front page news but it’s quite overvalued for what it is still. In my humble opinion RE nationally should be 50% less than today to be considered reasonable especially considering poorly diversified and low population country like ours.

Yeah right something that makes sense…

Anyway, Garth how about a post about self directed RRSP? Not something I’ve seen much on…

#67 Poloz on 08.11.16 at 8:29 pm

“Mark on 08.11.16 at 6:14 pm
Foreign participation in Vancouver’s RE market was minimal to begin with.”

Thank you Mark. We did not know that.

#68 Carlyle on 08.11.16 at 8:32 pm

My wife and I have talked about it as we consider having our first child. She is 34 I am 40. She’s got 8 years into a DBPP and I have 1. She’s going to be leaving her job soon to move to the city where I am located. We figure between the two of us we can get 30 years between our DBPP’s.

At our age we are thinking there is no point to buying a house but instead build the “third” leg of our savings tripod … Namely start investing. CPP, DBPP and investments.

#69 not 1st on 08.11.16 at 8:37 pm

Garth, the story of alberta nicely summed in Dream REIT today. Almost a billion dollar write down. Yikes.

#70 rknusa on 08.11.16 at 8:37 pm

“A younger generation of yet-to-be homeowners faces the need for greater savings to build a down payment, cutting into their room for consumption,” he writes. “The lack of affordable housing for the next generation of workforce entrants could act as an impediment to business growth, or encourage businesses to locate elsewhere. And fears that a steep climb today risks a harder landing for house prices down the road could inject caution in lending that acts as an economic headwind.”

Justin’s response is to increase the number of TFWs, visas and students from China

if Canadians cannot afford to consume rich Chinese can

Justin Trudeau is a traitor to this country

Since when are temporary foreign workers rich? — Garth

#71 Context on 08.11.16 at 8:40 pm

#54 The Original Dave :- Perhaps a real estate agent is paying off the homeowner to display a sign. Then when a purchaser calls the agent he says sorry as just sold it but can I become your agent as will find what you want. LOL

#72 Mark on 08.11.16 at 8:42 pm

“Banks now own most of Vancouver, with the actual land titles held by people who are to a large extent less than serfs. These people are basically indentured slave labour.”

That’s a good way of thinking about, especially as prices continue to stagnate and decline (as they have for the past 3 years or so). And when the bank finally extracts as much as they can from the “slave labour”, the bank can take the mortgage to the CMHC and have it redeemed, in full. Exchanging the mortgage for enough cash, from the CMHC, potentially to buy 2 or 3 Vancouver houses.

That’s why Canadian banks, with their effective ‘short’ position on the Canadian housing market, will benefit enormously through lower house prices — because extrication from such slavery will prove to be impossible for most. The average Canadian large bank saw its stock price quadruple in the 1990s when the housing market at the time unwound. Very similar things could occur in the next decade.

Can anyone explain this to me, I drive around a particular area in Toronto. One street has 5 for sale signs and has had them for weeks. If you go on the mls site, none of them are listed. No red dots. What’s going on?

That sure would strike at the narrative of “low inventory” that the Realtors are claiming, that’s for sure. Please do more research if you can.

#73 Shiba Inu on 08.11.16 at 8:52 pm

#100 nonplused on 08.10.16 at 11:17 pm

…In all other cases, the reasons women have for being divorced are all bad. Here are some of them translated for you:

“He’s abusive!” – I liked bad boys when I was young.

“He’s abusive! (2)” – he won’t put up with my shit.

Sometimes I wonder what my life would be like if my mother actually called the police and/or got divorced instead of staying for the financial security of her children.

My father was no “bad boy”. In their country, in their day, you married the first nice man that liked you as long as he was a hard worker. He was a nerd, actually. So far so good, right? That was until his mental health issues revealed themselves. But my mother stayed for the kids and taught me coping strategies, like scurrying from room to room in the house so as to not give him a chance to bully me.

We’re a culture of savers, so I got a great financial education at home, supplemented with materials from the library. Ironically, it’s because I’d amassed a large enough nest egg that I could confidently fly the coop (a big faux pas in my culture) when I got tired of reffing my parents’ fights and being abused myself. (Epilogue: I left so suddenly that I think it scared them into not fighting anymore. Plus they’re, like, old now.)

Yes, I have money. I feel broken sometimes, though. Daddy issues? Check. Rejection issues? Double check. Trust issues? You bet. I guess this means I can afford therapy now. Had my parents gotten divorced, I guess I’d still need to pay for the therapy. I guess the way my life turned out was the lesser of two evils.

#74 Self Directed on 08.11.16 at 8:54 pm

#63 Ace Goodheart on 08.11.16 at 8:06 pm

…with the actual land titles held by people who are to a large extent less than serfs.
———————-
Don’t forget to mention THE BANK is FIRST on the property title. All those proud home “owners” who say yeah that’s right I own… no ya don’t! Not until you make the very last mortgage payment, and then pay the additional $75.00 discharge fee.

I HATE those lender ads, you know the ones that say “Do you own your home? Approved!”. I only hear.. “Wanna be a debt slave longer? Sucker!”

#75 toronto1 on 08.11.16 at 8:56 pm

#42 Lindsay

Interesting that you mention that phenomenon. Within my circle of friends, I know of 3 that have had to sell in order to pay off their debts, 2 of those where almost forced sales. One was a contractor whose business took a turn for the worse and was forced to sell.

Funny, they brought home 8-10 years ago back when prices where reasonable, keep refinancing over and over again until they could no longer float their debt.

I always wondered how they paid for their lifestyle 2 trips to 5 start all inclusive every year, at least 1 trip to Vegas and one to Europe etc… new high end SUV every few years etc.. i only got to know the real situation when they approached me asking for assistance in finding work- which I did, found both a decent job but it still wasn’t enough………

#76 Context on 08.11.16 at 9:04 pm

#62 Miss Construed :- Look at it this way as they will have a wood burning fireplace and parents on both sides with deep pockets. Now did you catch the buzz words of why they bought this home? One says needed something leafy and the other was happy for having trees all around. This is all good, but far from what needs to look at in buying a home. Nice couple that agree on something leafy.

#77 Don Derc on 08.11.16 at 9:06 pm

It’s the other signs that will hit real estate – Macy’s closing 100 stores. Want something closer to home? 7000 businesses closing in Cgy. That 15% tax is typical of the tail chasing voters and politicians do out here in BC – I’m surprised no one stood and shouted against it. It’s a soft, quite race to the bottom beginning with “90 days on the market so a price reduction of $10K” –

I got questioned by the police today for carrying a Noam Chomsky book. Just kidding. No I’m not. Yes I am. You tell me…..

TGIF….

#78 Smoking Man on 08.11.16 at 9:13 pm

Hey lefties, your celebrity God T2 is relaxing the rules for TFW.

Seams he’s more pro business than we all thought.

Sucks that you have no idea or balls on how to start a business to take advantage of this gift.

Buy the banks, their going to load up huge on TFW.

#79 Kenchie on 08.11.16 at 9:17 pm

#9 Chaddywack on 08.11.16 at 5:09 pm
“Meanwhile a house in East Van down the street from a family member is listed for $1,888,888 (about 1.1M more than the July 2015 assessed value).”

Assuming that’s priced to attract a specific type of foreign national, today it would cost that person $2,172,221.20

Good luck to them…

#80 Competition on 08.11.16 at 9:18 pm

The real question: what will crash harder, real estate or stock markets. They are all on the top.

#81 TurnerNation on 08.11.16 at 9:28 pm

But according to CBC Kommunist Kanada programming these women are immodest and should be covering up at all times.

They will not rest until all we have is glum asexualism. (See: many of our leaders….)

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/thunder-bay/bikini-video-mmiw-1.3717116

Will they axe fireman calendars too?

#82 Smoking Man on 08.11.16 at 9:33 pm

I dedicated this toon to Hilarys supportets in November.

https://youtu.be/8SbUC-UaAxE

I really need to spend more time writing that getting plastered at Seneca during the week.

I’m very habitual….

#83 Okanagan Lake, Kelowna, Vernon ... are we going into the toilet too? on 08.11.16 at 9:33 pm

I’m very interested is Okanagan Lake, Kelowna, Vernon tanking too? What does everyone think? Inquiring minds want to know.

#84 Competition on 08.11.16 at 9:37 pm

Financial Times subscription ads on Zerohedge.

Mainstream, establishment, consensus is dead.

Trump has won.

Social contract has expired.

#85 Andrew Woburn on 08.11.16 at 9:42 pm

Does this look like a little black cygnet to you? Extracts marked “-” are from a 2014 article in the Financial Post.

– It’s been nearly two years (now four) since the federal government paved the way for credit unions to expand beyond provincial borders and become federal financial institutions. But not one of them has made the move.”

That was until last month.

“Ottawa – July 4, 2016 – The Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC) today welcomed Caisse populaire acadienne ltée to its membership. Operating under the trade name UNI Financial Cooperation, it is the first provincial credit union to enter the federal credit union (FCU) regime.”

– Consolidation over the past decade has resulted in fewer but much larger credit unions that take deposits, lend money and issue mortgages just like a bank. The combined assets of credit unions outside Quebec have grown to around $162-billion, not far behind National Bank of Canada with around $190-billion. Yet the credit unions are regulated through a patchwork of rules that harken back to their time as small community co-operatives with one or two branches.

Mark gets scant respect on this site but as he says, he has been constantly warning about the credit unions. He has good company, namely the IMF and the Bank of Canada.

– In the past six months, both the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of Canada have flagged the importance of strong credit unions to the stability of the country’s financial system – and the weaknesses inherent in the patchwork system now in place.

– A report on Canada’s financial sector last spring by the IMF zeroed in on provincial deposit insurance schemes underpinning this country’s credit unions. The arbiter of global monetary policy and stability was critical of their “very uneven characteristics,” some of which it declared “very problematic.”

– The report drew attention to the rare unlimited coverage for deposits in credit unions west of Ontario. This unlimited guarantee if things go bad stands in sharp contrast to the $100,000 cap guaranteeing deposits in federally regulated banks through the Canada Deposit Insurance Corp. (CDIC).

Yes, they mean UNLIMITED. Not a typo.

– The unique system arguably creates a powerful incentive for anyone with more than $100,000 in deposits – including companies — to shift money to credit unions to take advantage of unlimited insurance and the perception that those provincial governments would step in to help cover losses.

– Though most credit union activities are limited to the home province, deposits can be solicited from outside provincial borders.

– He and other critics say this structure also creates a “moral hazard,” especially in the unlimited cases where the ultimate responsibility for all deposits is taken outside the credit union. This opens the door to riskier lending decisions inside.

– “If you have no risk you’re going to act in a more cavalier manner,” Mr. Lee said. “In those provinces where there are no caps, they’re completely covered no matter what. This can facilitate more risky lending.”

– It is clear from the IMF report in March that deposit insurance has been viewed as a competitive advantage for credit unions. British Columbia was the last of the western provinces to introduce the “blanket” coverage, and did so in the midst of the financial crisis.

– “Interestingly,” the IMF noted, “the blanket deposit guarantee introduced in British Columbia was not justified by runs in local institutions, but rather by concerns that the volatile market conditions might direct some deposits into those neighboring provinces which offered full deposit guarantees.”

So there you have it, folks. The BC government put its cherished citizens on the hook for unlimited guarantees so its credit unions could fight Alberta for deposits which wound up helping to inflating Vancouver house prices. So, do you think, with only months to go before the next election, they really believe the non-resident transfer tax is going to crash the market?

Does all this matter. The Bank of Canada thinks so.

– In a June report, the Bank said the non-bank lending sector, including credit unions, has “important implications for the stability of the Canadian financial system, because of potential common exposures to particular shocks.

– The report said a “disproportionate” share of non-bank lending “is oriented toward riskier areas,” and noted that the home loan business often caters specifically to borrowers who do not qualify for insured mortgages.

– By contrast, he said, the proportion of insured mortgages at credit unions across the country is not known. Mr. Pigeon says credit unions have a 6.6% share of the residential mortgage market across the country, but he could provide no details on how many of those home loans are insured.

– “The percentage that are insured or uninsured, that’s something we don’t have,” he said. The same goes for other data, such as the amount of deposits that come from outside a credit union’s home province. Some observers say those figures would help pinpoint how many across the country are shopping for higher deposit insurance.

– “You’d be hard-pressed to find those data anywhere, to be honest,” Mr. Pigeon said.

So credit unions are not lining up to go federal because this means they have to meet the same disclosure as the banks. Oh, good. Nothing to see here. But it makes you wonder if any that actually do are being pushed out of the nest by their terrified provincial governments.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/credit-unions-staying-under-the-radar-in-canadas-patchwork-regulatory-system

#86 Fustercluck on 08.11.16 at 9:48 pm

“Higher prices on thinning volume. Beware.”

Why Garth?

#87 Smoking Man on 08.11.16 at 9:48 pm

To Hillary Rotten Clinton..
With love Smoking Man PhD Herdonomics.

When I look into your eyes
I can see a love restrained
But darlin’ when I hold you
Don’t you know I feel the same
Nothin’ lasts forever
And we both know hearts can change
And it’s hard to hold a candle
In the cold November rain
We’ve been through this such a long long time
Just tryin’ to kill the pain, oo yeah
But love is always coming and love is always going
And no one’s really sure who’s lettin’ go today
Walking away
If we could take the time
To lay it on the line
I could rest my head
Just knowin’ that you were mine
All mine
So if you want to love me
Then darlin’ don’t refrain
Or I’ll just end up walkin’
In the cold November rain
Do you need some time on your own
Do you need some time all alone
Everybody needs some time
On their own

#88 Cory on 08.11.16 at 9:48 pm

I’ve been saying this is embarrassing for Canada for a long time now but look at the quality of politicians at all levels these days. I think most AB MLA’s have graduated high school now…..not sure.

All for power and ego using savers to subsidize the dumb because they are in the majority. There is a reason financial literacy is not taught in the curriculum. If everyone knew the right things to do with money, how it is created, why, interest rates, bonds, equities etc, then the consumer economy would never have existed as it is……an illusion.

As well, debt is spending future earnings today. If even the young have credit now before they even finish high school, what “future” earnings will be left to spend? and note how terminology steers people to spend by saying “disposable income”. That’s ridiculous. None of my income is “disposable” but better believe this terminology is by design.

Better to teach about useless things like Shakespeare than about real life. Too late to change the curriculum now though since who would be teaching financial literacy? the same indebted people who learned how to teach Shakespeare instead of learning financial literacy.

Sad sad state of affairs in this country. Built on an illusion but now the illusion is over yet people still don’t get it. I almost think government HAS to create illusions and bubbles to keep economies going. There will always be casualties, and this time there will be many, but there will always be those who capitalize on it knowing full well it is not real.

Just need a sensible leader with guts to turn it all around with sensible policies. Government is trying to be the job creator instead of doing what they are supposed to by creating the conditions for people/entrepreneurs/business to want to invest, grow, and succeed. Our country punishes people for doing well, and rewards whiners who don’t know how, or want to work for anything. It is backwards but it’s not about to change any time soon so people need to adapt and adjust or, most likely, leave the country.

#89 Andrew Woburn on 08.11.16 at 9:50 pm

#159 TnT on 08.09.16 at 11:51 am
#129 CJBob on 08.09.16 at 8:18 am
Skip the GIC and do a straight up HISA account at Alterna if your so risk adverse
High Interest Savings Account = 1.95%
TFSA = 1.95%
https://www.alternabank.ca/
===========================

Unless you are a sovereign state NIRPing their way to heaven, there is always a correlation between interest rate and risk. I have looked at similar high interest offers, and they all involve a high proportion of deposits invested into residential mortgages which should be cause for some concern today.

I was unable to find a financial statement for Alterna Bank as its accounts are consolidated with its parent, Alterna Savings, a credit union. However the total assets at Dec. 31, 2015 of the combined entity are about $3 billion of which $1.3 is residential mortgage debt and $1.0 billion is commercial loans. Consolidated equity is a snick under $200 million or about 6.5% of total assets. Granted this is probably a well run financial institution and it would likely take a real estate crash and a recession to carve so much off asset values but at that point it would be insolvent.

So what, you say, I have deposit insurance. Well, yes, but a curious fact about Alterna is the parent credit union deposits are covered by Ontario insurance and the subsidiary bank deposits are covered by CDIC because the sub really is a bank and so is federally regulated. Now I don’t doubt for a minute that if a smaller $3 billion Canadian financial institution failed, the depositors would eventually be made whole. To me the real risk issue with these situations is not an absolute loss of capital but rather how long is “eventually”. Having two guarantors is not likely to speed this process along.

#90 Smoking Man on 08.11.16 at 9:55 pm

To my kids who have finaly found me on greater Fool..

Dad there is crazy bastard on this blog, check him out, Smoking Man.. He says the same shit as you do.

Kids the day I met your mother.

https://youtu.be/1l0xpkk0yaQ

#91 Baby Investor on 08.11.16 at 10:03 pm

Is Cameco a good buy at the moment or should one wait after the september trial?

#92 Smoking Man on 08.11.16 at 10:10 pm

In the reunion Hall up there somewhere the UCC sends me out message.

Your dad is very happy again.. This was the song that Helen and Milo danced too on there re patriatiion..

Go dad…..

https://youtu.be/MjUqfRrWwcM

#93 Aggregator on 08.11.16 at 10:12 pm

#53 Jesse Sorrenson – The Canadian bond market is at almost all time lows in yields and keeps getting worse.

Correct. Which means in P/E terms that bonds are nearing a whopping 70 relative to stocks. There's no question that bonds are in a bubble mania. The question is when it will implode. This is impossible to predict because you're dealing with investment behavior and other exogenous forces.

Canadian bond yields (or yield curve) isn't reflecting Canadian fundamentals at all, rather it is that global markets are so bad and desperate for yield that it's forcing capital to buy Canadian fixed income. So that 15% foreign tax that people think will crash Van's market isn't likely to do anything, after all, if there's buyers willing to purchase a crack shack for $1-3 million dollars why would a 15% tax stop them? They'll just add it in selling price.

Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong have all tried these types of measures and it doesn't work.

#94 Smoking Man on 08.11.16 at 10:19 pm

For those of you chasing money so you can let your positions talk for you rather than a voice or couple of thumbs.

I dedicate this to you. Yeah I’m loser hammered…

https://youtu.be/pc95OmIEhfM

#95 Moses71 on 08.11.16 at 10:28 pm

To #17 re: observation deck for Calgary.
Great idea. Except the Brookfield Tower will be offering a view of only Calgary, not NY.

#96 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.11.16 at 10:34 pm

YYZ real estate prices won’t come down until the economy collapses. That’ll be a black swan.

Canadian bonds really scrapping the bottom of the barrel. With US GDP at 3.7% and Canada going in reverse as an importer country, the USD will continue to be strong against the CAD. Maybe even stronger than it is now.

Glad T2 is increasing TFW. Better for shareholders like us.

#97 Context on 08.11.16 at 10:40 pm

The Chinese coming into Toronto with a wave of funds during the 1970’s made vast improvements and most was directed into commercial properties. The only Chinatown had two restaurants on Elizabeth at Dundas and going west on Dundas was a circus. They created a new Chinatown westward which is all gone today, but starts again at Beverly westward which is beautiful to Spadina both north and south. We can thank the Chinese for constructing a beautiful addition to Toronto as its a must see tourist attraction.

#98 Grey Dog on 08.11.16 at 10:52 pm

Mark; your message re credit unions has a lot of credibility.
Our case: retirement within a year, within the last couple of years we are consolidating accounts here, there, and everywhere to keep our financial advisor/tax accountant fully aware where $s are. Has it happens, hubby has an insignificant RRSP $9k+ with a credit union here in Ontario that rhymes with race. So a year ago he calls ‘race’ to send RRSP to our finance guy, “ummm, we have to vote on it”. So there it sits….I swear the month after hubby is retired I’m sending him there to cash out,,,yea, yea, the 5k$ RRSP withholding fee, so maybe two months in a row! Absolutely no other institution hesitated to honour our request!

#99 Mark on 08.11.16 at 10:57 pm

“Is Cameco a good buy at the moment or should one wait after the september trial?”

I don’t give stock advice (had a few bad experiences doing that, although WalMark doesn’t seem to harp on me anymore for telling people gold miners were great buys last year!), and you really should have a balanced portfolio. However, there are many long-term assets in the Canadian economy that are trading well beneath their realistic long-term cost of replacement. Such assets are usually a ‘buy’, but such trade may very well not work out too well in the short term. So you need a lot of patience.

“Correct. Which means in P/E terms that bonds are nearing a whopping 70 relative to stocks. “

Careful there. PIMCO’s way of calculating P/E on bonds is just to take the dividend yield and invert it. But such approach is highly problematic because bonds pay pre-tax income. Stock P/E’s are quoted as after-tax. So when you adjust the bond P/E on a similar basis, it is well over 100. While you can buy the Canadian market at a comparatively paltry P/E of 15.

Stunning, isn’t it? Also highly explanatory of the credit-driven RE bubble.

#100 MF on 08.11.16 at 10:58 pm

#70 rknusa on 08.11.16 at 8:37 pm

“Justin Trudeau is a traitor to this country”
#78 Smoking Man on 08.11.16 at 9:13 pm

-Hey remember how Harper was lambasted for the TFW program??????

Whoever voted for this guy is dumb (serious). Just tell em what they want to hear with him. Free weed for all the loser potheads.

I’m convinced males who believe in leftist leaning politicians have lower testosterone. They are (from what I see) less fit/fatter, less social, less ambitious, less attractive, less aggressive etc.

Sounds like low test.

MF

#101 Capital One on 08.11.16 at 11:00 pm

#63 Ace Goodheart on 08.11.16 at 8:06 pm

BC has the lowest income tax rates in Canada.

CO

#102 bdwy sktrn on 08.11.16 at 11:12 pm

#86 Fustercluck on 08.11.16 at 9:48 pm
“Higher prices on thinning volume. Beware.”

Why Garth?
————————-
because when it was said over and over around here in 2012 it never really panned out?

as mark says, since 2012 virtually all sfh in 604 have doubled in price.

so it’s a buy signal?

#103 moses7171 on 08.11.16 at 11:19 pm

#65…oceanfront property in pei, east coast….recent article that due to warmer ocean temps, shark sightings are increasing up there!

#104 Bottoms_Up on 08.11.16 at 11:19 pm

Avery nailed it. But it’s not just the next generation of home buyers that won’t be able to afford to spend into the economy. It’s also those that made their first purchase in the past 5-7 years or so….

#105 Smoking Man on 08.11.16 at 11:34 pm

Last song of this glorious drunk night.
https://youtu.be/fJ9rUzIMcZQ

#106 WUL on 08.11.16 at 11:40 pm

#97 Context on 08.11.16 at 10:40 pm

We can thank the Chinese for constructing a beautiful addition to Toronto as its a must see tourist attraction.
***********

Thanks. It is now on my bucket list between Machu Picchu and Lake O’Hara.

#107 White Crock BC on 08.11.16 at 11:40 pm

WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.11.16 at 10:34 pm

With US GDP at 3.7%

========

Sources?

Not showing 3.7% in any search I’ve done.

#108 Metaxa on 08.11.16 at 11:43 pm

nice poem Smoking Man.

Didn’t Guns N’ Roses do something awfully similar, call it November Rain?

Back in ’91?

Plagiarism, Hunter at his worst never stooped so low.

But then, what would one expect from an amateur Trump apologist?

#109 The Wet Coast on 08.11.16 at 11:45 pm

The comment below more than any other sums up why the 15% tax was right, and why it needs to be raised if necessary.
“What B.C. has failed to understand is that this dangerous flood of money has nothing to do with race. It’s the story of a particular class of people at the heart of a particular regime at a particular stage in its history. Much the same story could be written about the Russian oligarchs’ investments in property in London, England.”

#110 bdwy sktrn on 08.11.16 at 11:50 pm

a Ross Kay quote (posted here way back when)

“the peak of the real estate market in Canada was April 8th 2012”

nice work dude!

#111 bdwy sktrn on 08.11.16 at 11:56 pm

from 2012 – yes we sure do look back in awe as an avg house was 700.000 cheaper then than today. anything within the city limits up well over a million.
—————————-
“That’s easy. Prices will indeed fall considerably, and stay low a lot longer than many owners will stay solvent. People will look back at 2010 and 2011 – when speculation was rampant, realtors cried ‘buy now or buy never’ and a yellow peril was invented to whip the locals into a buying frenzy – in awe.”

#112 Jon B on 08.12.16 at 12:29 am

Butt-ugly Langley? Evidently you’ve never been there.

Sadly, you are wrong. — Garth

#113 waiting on the westcoast on 08.12.16 at 12:39 am

Great quote on the decline in Japan due to an asset bubble from accommodative interest rates…. Sounds familiar to me…

“Much of the blame is placed on the Bank of Japan, which was accused of waiting too long to tighten interest rates after the economy rebounded from recession beginning in 1987. Low interest rates and a surging economy caused land prices around Tokyo to spike by more than 300 per cent from 1985 to 1991.”

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/japan-in-transition-world-watching-to-see-if-abenomics-works&pubdate=2016-08-12

#114 waiting on the westcoast on 08.12.16 at 1:21 am

And Garth – I am leaving Langley next month. We will see if I can rationalize a return in 12 months. Prices are going to need to show me some love. Probably end up on the Island if/when we come back… Can’t see myself living in Merritt… ;-)

I noticed property in Italy is getting very cheap too (although not in my family’s home region of Veneto).

#115 No, YVR RE will not be fine... on 08.12.16 at 1:46 am

Some reality and facts for the “YVR RE will be just fine” Denial crowd.

A historical formula during recession (if Garth is correct, we are in it already and I agree with him):

The higher the House Price Index = The larger the fall in prices

HPI vs. 1980 Baseline Year = 100, Corrected for Inflation:

1980 Calgary HPI = 100, 1982 HPI = 80 (-20%)
1981 YVR HPI = 135, 1982 HPI = 90 (-33%)
1989 GTA HPI = 220, 1993 HPI = 140 (-36%)

2011 YVR HPI = 240
2011 GTA HPI = 225

Clearly, the higher the HPI, the greater the fall in prices. If true, appears that YVR and GTA RE in for a greater than 36% drop in price.

All that is up for debate now is how rapid will the fall in prices be?

I say rapid followed by more years of steep declines in light of historical data and the current economic data:

-2016 Cumulative Job Creation: 13,200
-2016 Cumulative GDP: -0.2%
-2016 May Average Canadian Debt = 165% ($1.9 trillion, 70% of that in mortgages)
-A 20% decline in house prices across Canada would put 169,000 families under age 40 “underwater” on their mortgages or 1 in 10 families (10%).
-A 30% decline in house prices across Canada would put 294,000 families under age 40 “underwater” on their mortgages or 1 in 7 families (14.3%).

So, from the above fact based and current data, it will be just fine in YVR RE…yup, just fine…and 416 to follow at a theatre near you.

#116 Dr. Morrel on 08.12.16 at 2:44 am

#68 Carlyle

At 34 and 40, I am sorry but the window for having children has passed.

Your wife, should you get her pregnant soon, will be viewed as a high risk pregnancy. She is too old to have children without increasing risks including down syndrome but lots of other problems too.

And you at 40 are just too old to be a dad. When your potential child is 15, you’ll be 55 if the child is born this year. Are you going bike riding with him/her? What about skiing? Coaching the soccer team? Do you have enough money to utilize the RESP program and save for retirement at the same time?

You and your wife have missed the window buddy. Plane and simple women need to do the baby thing around age 25, and men need to do it when they are hanging with 25 year old women. Unless you are Donald Trump and can hire all the care you need for your child, 40 year olds need to realize they have already let that moment pass.

Imagine yourself, 15 years from now, playing catch with you kid. If you can’t, don’t.

#117 Bram on 08.12.16 at 2:47 am

About the pic:
Tide went out, and left dog has 10% equity and right dog has 90% equity?

At least, neither of them was under water :-)

#118 nonplused on 08.12.16 at 2:53 am

#73 Shiba Inu

A touching story, and I don’t doubt it a bit. But what if your mother had mental problems? Women do as much as men.

In my case I would say my father was weak, but my mother was the crazy one. My father stuck with her through every stupid thing she did and continues to do.

Do I think my dad should divorce my mom because she’s crazy? Well other than his perhaps piece of mind which he already achieves by retreating to his hobbies, I doubt it would do anything but make matters worse.

Mental illness exists. We probably all have it. In my opinion, far to many mentally ill people divorce because they think they’ll get more money or a better life on the other side, whereas they have just been watching too much tv.

Now in the case of abuse, that’s a different matter sometimes you do actually have to get out.

#119 Freedom First on 08.12.16 at 2:54 am

#78 Smoking Man

buy the banks-Smoking Man
…………………………………………………..

I agree. Preferred ETF’s to bring me from 10% to 20% weighting. Perfect. Will stay underweight oil and gas, for now. First things first. I am well diversified, but slightly unbalanced. I am usually very close to Garth’s weightings, but I am always comfortable. If I was to end up hurting, almost everyone else would be really really really screwed.

#120 Bram on 08.12.16 at 3:02 am

Can anyone explain this to me, I drive around a particular area in Toronto. One street has 5 for sale signs and has had them for weeks. If you go on the mls site, none of them are listed. No red dots. What’s going on?

If they are neighbouring…
Target audience is probably not the public.
But offered as land assembly to developers?

#121 nonplused on 08.12.16 at 3:07 am

#73 Shiba Inu

Oh and PS I did mention I have been through the divorce process and learned a lot about it.

One of the things my ex accused me of was abuse (and I’ve come to learn that that accusation factors into most divorces). But my lawyer just asked me straight up “is she offering for you to have visitation or partial custody??” which of course she was because being single she needed some weekends free of the kids. So when I said “oh no that looks good, I’ll get to see the kids”, well, wait for it….

“We can put aside the accusations of abuse, because if your (ex) wife actually thought you were abusive there is no way she would let you have unsupervised access to her children.” Lawyers aren’t all bad and they’ve seen this stuff before.

#122 VanRant on 08.12.16 at 3:22 am

Garth, the stats that we are seeing in Vancouver is usually about 2 or more weeks behind the sale. So the full impact of the tax will not show up till after this coming week. This means the housing is crashing before the announcement. Also the media reported a mad rush by foreigners to register the sale at the BC Land registry before the tax comes in effect which crash the system.

#123 nonplused on 08.12.16 at 3:31 am

So more about ex-wives and why they are so much better as ex’s. My first wife used to get really mad at me that we couldn’t go on vacation in Hawaii over Christmas and by better cars when I was just out of school and had student debt. She used to go into rages, and then blame the whole thing on how I reacted when I told her to STFU and maybe get a job herself. So she divorced me because I wasn’t able to do what she wanted. Well, that turned out to be a lifesaver. Men, you must understand, in almost all cases you are better off without her.

I have a new wife now, probably not a good decision, but so far a much better decision than the first one and at least she has a job, she’s not relying on child support.

I have nothing good to say about ex-wives.

I would advise young men to acquire no ex-wives, even if that means not marrying. Ya sure you might be the crazy one. But don’t be crazy and bogged down.

#124 Tony on 08.12.16 at 4:07 am

From what I’ve read on youtube the fringe areas of Vancouver are being swamped with for sale signs as seen from an unbiased report here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKYCGgTKYl8

#125 bdwy sktrn on 08.12.16 at 4:07 am

one more ‘falling prices’ story from ground zero…

my sister is a ‘wul’ who now works purely as heloc delivery person it seems. when the papers are signed a lawyer simply is there to check id’s and get the signatures. 10-15/day every day for years. no other responsibilities. about as stress free as any lawyer job i could imagine – she could be delivering pizzas!

anyway – her latest story from the west side….

a nice lady has a run of the mill house , mid dunbar area, she goes south for the winter and returns in January to find an envelope dropped in her box – 5mil no condition offer.

she says no.

2 weeks ago another drop off – flowers, chocolates and a new offer, 6m. guy shows up with a case with 100k cash , waves it under her nose, literally.

she says no – something about the kid staying in town.

believe it was a 1m loc signed up for.

i don’t think the new tax will make too much difference to buyers like this.

#126 Tony on 08.12.16 at 4:13 am

Re: #93 Aggregator on 08.11.16 at 10:12 pm

From what I’ve read the non-Chinese are putting up their homes for sale in droves so it is working. Prices will soon move into the free-fall stage in Vancouver. The lag should be about 4 to 6 months when the GTA collapses in price due to the spillover effect.

#127 Tony on 08.12.16 at 4:16 am

Re: #2 Joe2.0 on 08.11.16 at 4:43 pm

You better re-read what Garth just posted.

#128 Zen Headspace on 08.12.16 at 6:37 am

Garth’s response to #16 iwil:

“It shows downward momentum. Markets fuelled by emotion are funny that way. Crazy tops. Fast bottoms.” — Garth
——————————————————————-
Just like my favourite kind of women. Ommmmmmmmm.

#129 Wordpress International on 08.12.16 at 6:42 am

#85 Andrew Woburn
_____________________________________________

Can you try to write an even longer post next time. I almost fell asleep, but not quite. A few more excruciating paragraphs and it would have been perfect. Off to REM land.

Sheesh.

#130 Wordpress International on 08.12.16 at 6:50 am

#83 Okanagan Lake, Kelowna, Vernon … are we going into the toilet too?

I’m very interested is Okanagan Lake, Kelowna, Vernon tanking too? What does everyone think?
____________________________________________

Those are great places for a summer visit or a ski trip. Then it’s time to hightail it back to civilization – aka the real world – Ontario. The only viable place left in Canada.

#131 Randy on 08.12.16 at 7:42 am

When you lose everything….you lose it…

#132 maxx on 08.12.16 at 8:08 am

#3 mouldyinYVR on 08.11.16 at 4:52 pm

“When will we be hit?………imagining the ‘impossible’…..”

…..”The BIG One’s a coming……..better get that insurance and prepare plan B……..as our condo newsletter continually reminds us….’you are on your own in the event of an earthquake’..(so comforting!)”

Been through two medium ones……unnerving. Could be the blue planet’s way of saying “frack you”!

#133 CJBob on 08.12.16 at 8:10 am

#69 not 1st on 08.11.16 at 8:37 pm
Garth, the story of alberta nicely summed in Dream REIT today. Almost a billion dollar write down. Yikes.
_______________________
I stayed away from REIT’s because I wasn’t sure how big the impact was, but it was clear there was going to be an impact. Past performance is no indication….

Don’t buy individual REITs, especially poorly-run regional ones, for the same reason you should not buy individual stocks. How hard is that lesson to learn? — Garth

#134 CJBob on 08.12.16 at 8:12 am

#53 Jesse Sorrenson on 08.11.16 at 7:33 pm

The Canadian bond market is at almost all time lows in yields and keeps getting worse.

Canada bond yields finished today with 2, 5, 10, 20, 30 year at 0.53%, 0.62%, 1.03%, 1.63%, 1.64%.

Last time August-11-2015 these were all at least 0.6% higher or more.
__________________________
Yep, but when I mentioned 10% of my portfolio is in laddered GIC’s averaging 2.4% I am mocked by the host. Let’s look back in 12 months and see how the REIT and Bond funds look then. Past performance is no indication….

REITs have averaged 9% over the past decade. I don’t think large corps will stop paying rent. — Garth

#135 Diana on 08.12.16 at 8:16 am

What is FOMO an acronym for?

#136 Fortune Faded on 08.12.16 at 8:37 am

@#115 Dr. Morrel on 08.12.16 at 2:44 am

Correction. The window for having children is passing quickly. While I agree women over 35 pose a much higher degree of risk than their younger counterparts, there are prenatal tests which can assist in determining the risks related to birth defects if you happen to be in the higher risk category. It is a growing norm that women are having children later in life, my wife was only 28 when we had our last (and final) child. Not a single one of her friends, who are now all 30, has had a child and only half of them are married or in a serious relationship. Sure this doesn’t mean anything with regards to the risk factors associated with being pregnant later in life, but you shouldn’t be suggesting that this couple has missed the boat completely as there are alot of people in a similar position.

40 for a guy is to old to be a dad? Nonsense. I work with and play sports with healthy active 55 year olds who can dance circles around guys half their age.
I also work with 30 somethings who couldn’t run a mile without keeling over. Sure if you are lazy, overweight and generally unhealthy you will probably be challenged to do any activity or sport at any age. Stay healthy, stay motivated and don’t let the naysayers determine your one and only life.

Now go get it done Carlyle!

#137 Bat Flipper on 08.12.16 at 8:50 am

Well, I will say it once and I will say it again, high real estate prices have so many negative externalities on the whole market that it makes little to no sense for the economy as a whole. It makes the banks richer but does little else.

We have set up a banking system where the banks only want to lend to mortgages because they are insured. It is basically free money, so why would they take the risk with unsecured lending or investing.

On Main street, people have no clue how to invest or do it properly, so they invest in housing. Unfortunately saving for a new house is nearly impossible without the help from mom and dad.

Clearly, people don’t see housing as a place to live, but instead a place to invest because no one would pay these numbers to live somewhere. We have become a nation of speccers and when speccing ends, so begins our real recession.

Why are listings scant? Obviously, because the costs of moving are insane. Spending between 6%-8% on legal fees, realtors, land transfer tax, etc. can easily give you a bill of over 100K. For most people, not worth it for an extra 100 sq ft and a few minutes off their commute.

Obviously the govs are reading these boards when they recommended the foreign tax and the vacant home tax. Something I agreed with as well because it will take that myth out of the market and the rush to get into a home before a ‘foreigner’ takes it from you.

All in all, when it all comes crashing down, it will the best for the economy and the future of the country. If you are a boomer looking to retire soon. You might want to cash in that lotto ticket. If enough boomers stay in their homes, we will definitely have a huge pension crunch if they can’t afford to pay their bills.

In this country, we will always bail out every underfunded pension, every failed corporation, every person down on their luck at the expense of growth. This will come back to haunt us eventually.

#138 Insurance Guy on 08.12.16 at 8:54 am

@ Dr. Morrel, your statement is assanine. Majority of my friends and family have had children in their early to mid 30s without a hiccup. And 55, yes bike rides, skiing, coaching soccer, all still very much doable provided you take care of yourself.

#139 Andrew t on 08.12.16 at 8:55 am

#111 bdwy sktrn on 08.11.16 at 11:56 pm
from 2012 – yes we sure do look back in awe as an avg house was 700.000 cheaper then than today. anything within the city limits up well over a million.
—————————-
“That’s easy. Prices will indeed fall considerably, and stay low a lot longer than many owners will stay solvent. People will look back at 2010 and 2011 – when speculation was rampant, realtors cried ‘buy now or buy never’ and a yellow peril was invented to whip the locals into a buying frenzy – in awe.”

People still when, when the inevitable post mortem “think pieces” flood the media. Had things cooled off back then we may have still had a chance.

#140 Eks dee Sipal on 08.12.16 at 9:44 am

#88 Cory “I almost think government HAS to create illusions and bubbles to keep economies going.”

Yup, you’re halfway there. At the top are the handful of families that are richer than God, and really have not much else to do but put on fake identities and dabble in politics, media, and sports for their fun and our harm. It’s been this way for thousands of years, the only difference now is that we are able to identify them.

Yes, the Aaron Driver story is 100% fake. Karina Vetrano is Nelly Furtado. Crown Prince of Norway is the leading Flat Earth BS-er.

Thanks, Garth.

#141 TFW - globalism on stereoid on 08.12.16 at 9:49 am

#78 Smoking Man

Hey lefties, your celebrity God T2 is relaxing the rules for TFW.

Seams he’s more pro business than we all thought.

===

Globalist economy policies first outsourced labor to low labor cost areas.

Globalist economy policies now double-down by “insourcing” low labor cost with TFWs.

Here is Trump’s more detailed policy on the issue:
Putting our national economic interest first — a new approach to trade agreements.

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-national-economic-interest-first-trade-agreements-2016-8

It seems like not as “stupid” and baseless as Garth and other members of the globalism fan club wants the public to write it off, without any meaningful discussion.

This may change though, as even Hillary is forced to take an other look in the middle of the campaign: Hillary Sounding Suspiciously Like Trump On Trade.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-12/hillary-sounding-suspiciously-trump-trade

#142 Eks dee Sipal on 08.12.16 at 10:00 am

May I also address the current economic situation in Canada? Ok, thanks again. Here goes: My opinion is that as of right now, there is still yet continued demand for Canadian bonds simply because as Aggregator and others have pointed out, global money is chasing yields.

And this inflow of capital into Canada is indirectly flowing into housing through Mortgage-Backed Securities via CMHC. It’s certainly not going into other sectors in any significant amount. This has led to the HELOC problem which is the REAL problem. Debt.

BUT, the tide has turned indeed. Well before the 15% Vancouver tax, that’s just window dressing. Now, we have the spectre of rising rates in the US, the only economy that is motoring along.

Global capital that was going into Canada (it’s not a big number I suppose compared to the overall global capital but enough to affect us here in Canada) will redirect into US bonds and treasuries once again as soon as the rates start to increase.

Now, Mark proposes that this may lead to an appreciation of the CAD, but I don’t quite understand why that would be. Less demand for Canadian bonds would suggest less demand for the CA dollar, no? And with no oil export surplus cash and no manufacturing sector to speak of even as the auto plants move to Mexico, the CAD will suffer badly.

Add to this the impending housing doom crash apocalypse, and things are looking quite bleak.

What is the smart Canadian money doing at this point?

#143 jess on 08.12.16 at 10:03 am

24 PDX Canuck on 08.11.16 at 5:55 pm
what about those heloc lines of credit interest only /falling values?

========
another mess “lead generators”
…”According to the FTC’s complaint, the operators of Gigats.com gathered online job announcements posted by multinational companies, government agencies and other employers, and summarized them on its website, which appeared to accept applications for the jobs. Many of the job openings were not current, and for those that were, the employers had not authorized Gigats to collect applications or screen or interview applicants. In addition, the defendants never sent the information they collected from consumers to the employers.
https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2016/04/ftc-charges-education-lead-generator-tricking-job-seekers

=======
http://hechingerreport.org/strapped-for-students-nonprofit-colleges-borrow-recruiting-tactic-from-for-profits/
=======
imagine trump and then one of these
https://www.revealnews.org/blog/risky-u-s-nuclear-bomb-gets-green-light/

#144 Trump Train-wreck on 08.12.16 at 10:08 am

#108 Metaxa on 08.11.16 at 11:43 pm

nice poem Smoking Man.

Didn’t Guns N’ Roses do something awfully similar, call it November Rain?

Back in ’91?

Plagiarism, Hunter at his worst never stooped so low.

But then, what would one expect from an amateur Trump apologist?
______________________________________
Haven’t you noticed nothing original comes from this guy? Smoking Man has drunk the Trump Train-wreck Cool-Aid and is totally taken in by this fake haired orange dufus. Id swear he is so in love with Trump he would most likely dump his wife to marry him.

#145 mishuko on 08.12.16 at 10:33 am

#94 Smoking Man

love that song… and that’s exactly why I follow the gut. at the end of the day physical posessions is just that. when we die… well that’s for another day

#146 Tudval on 08.12.16 at 10:38 am

#141 TFW In any case, Trump is far more intelligent than these populist local politicians trying to institute some kind of protection for locals while the talk at the upper levels is all about openness and bringing down barriers. We move from distortions brought by globalism to even worse distortions which will be brought by tribalism.

At least with Trump, ‘the tribe’ will be large enough that collectively they can make a (free and fair) market out of it.

#147 Rexx Rock on 08.12.16 at 10:49 am

Thats why Texas rocks!!!Lots of jobs, 3,2,2 newer houses in all the cities for under $150,000.Canada sucks huge for affordabilty and the young and old will suffer big time.Played golf with a young guy who lives in the states from Victoria.He got a scholorship then a job and laughed when I asked him if he was coming back to Victoria.What go back to Riches to rags?

#148 fancy_pants on 08.12.16 at 10:54 am

your message Mr. Turner is more relevant now than ever. This will not end well.

FOMO = fear of missing out

#149 Ace Goodheart on 08.12.16 at 11:07 am

RE: #69 not 1st on 08.11.16 at 8:37 pm
“Garth, the story of alberta nicely summed in Dream REIT today. Almost a billion dollar write down. Yikes.”

And yet this REIT still has a net asset value of just over $23.00 per unit, and is still trading at below book value of just over $16.00 per unit.

This is why REITs are so much fun to own. Unlike other stocks, which almost always trade at above book value due to “goodwill” and estimates of future growth and profits, REITs trade below book, because how do you ascribe goodwill to what is essentially a property trust?

When these things get written down by a billion dollars, and are STILL trading below book value, you just sit there and smile if you happen to own them. No other stock can do that for you.

#150 Ace Goodheart on 08.12.16 at 11:18 am

RE: “Can anyone explain this to me, I drive around a particular area in Toronto. One street has 5 for sale signs and has had them for weeks. If you go on the mls site, none of them are listed. No red dots. What’s going on?”

If you look closely at the “for sale” signs, you will probably see something along the lines of “coming soon”.

This is a tactic that is being used more frequently in Toronto now. It seems to have been though up as a result of the “bully bid” phenomena where an offer date is set, and then people just ignore the date and make offers before it.

This way, everyone knows the house is for sale, but no one can buy it. Makes people have “FOMO” and drives up demand.

The other explanation would be that it takes no time at all to put a “for sale” sign on a lawn, complete with a “coming soon” sign, but it takes weeks to get a property on MLS.

That sounds like a load of you know what. So I think that I am right in my hypothesis.

#151 Who Luvs ya baby on 08.12.16 at 11:43 am

#144 Trump Train-wreck on 08.12.16 at 10:08 am
#108 Metaxa on 08.11.16 at 11:43 pm

nice poem Smoking Man.

Didn’t Guns N’ Roses do something awfully similar, call it November Rain?

Back in ’91?

Plagiarism, Hunter at his worst never stooped so low.

But then, what would one expect from an amateur Trump apologist?
______________________________________
Haven’t you noticed nothing original comes from this guy? Smoking Man has drunk the Trump Train-wreck Cool-Aid and is totally taken in by this fake haired orange dufus. Id swear he is so in love with Trump he would most likely dump his wife to marry him.
..
Fear not. The orangatan is imploding and smoker man will be cleaning garths toilet in November when he loses his bet

#152 DON on 08.12.16 at 11:46 am

#116 Dr. Morrel on 08.12.16 at 2:44 am

#68 Carlyle

At 34 and 40, I am sorry but the window for having children has passed.

Your wife, should you get her pregnant soon, will be viewed as a high risk pregnancy. She is too old to have children without increasing risks including down syndrome but lots of other problems too.

And you at 40 are just too old to be a dad. When your potential child is 15, you’ll be 55 if the child is born this year. Are you going bike riding with him/her? What about skiing? Coaching the soccer team? Do you have enough money to utilize the RESP program and save for retirement at the same time?

You and your wife have missed the window buddy. Plane and simple women need to do the baby thing around age 25, and men need to do it when they are hanging with 25 year old women. Unless you are Donald Trump and can hire all the care you need for your child, 40 year olds need to realize they have already let that moment pass.

Imagine yourself, 15 years from now, playing catch with you kid. If you can’t, don’t.
*********************

Your assumptions are well…assumptions. But then again what does a 25 year old (barely an adult) have to offer – except youth. (Yes I know I shouldn’t generalize – they are lots of 25 year old who are responsible and good parents). The younger families around me are less stable and divorce seems to be a theme.

Has rational thought been washed off the face of this planet? While you are balancing your portfolio – try balancing your thoughts.

Risk is risk and it worked out for me, it’s called healthy living and exercise.

#153 DON on 08.12.16 at 11:49 am

#118 nonplused

Well put.

#154 Keith in Calgary on 08.12.16 at 11:51 am

Northern Alberta is a mess.

I’ve just spent the last week in Lac La Biche…….prior to that I was in Camrose…….and then Grande Prairie, etc…….people here are all trying to sell their properties for prices that rival those asked in Calgary. LOL !!

It’s going to be a bloodbath, as Fort MacMurray oil money was the only reason these homes initially sold for what they did……..now that those folks have no jobs, and most of them have gone home, even the oil rig hotels cannot get businesses to lease their pre-built and empty bar/restaurant spaces.

It’s so slow that no one even wants to open a bar in the province where we consume more beer than any one else on a per capita basis. Let that sink in for a minute.

#155 Delusional on 08.12.16 at 11:53 am

Some people really are. A drop in $700,000 in home prices. Never going to happen. In the GTA houses since 2012 have doubled. You think they’re going to drop 50%. Never. The ship has sale. Those without will remain without.

#156 Smoking Man on 08.12.16 at 11:56 am

#144 Trump Train-wreck on 08.12.16 at 10:08 am
#108 Metaxa on 08.11.16 at 11:43 pm

nice poem Smoking Man.

Didn’t Guns N’ Roses do something awfully similar, call it November Rain?

Back in ’91?

Plagiarism, Hunter at his worst never stooped so low.

But then, what would one expect from an amateur Trump apologist?
______________________________________
Haven’t you noticed nothing original comes from this guy? Smoking Man has drunk the Trump Train-wreck Cool-Aid and is totally taken in by this fake haired orange dufus. Id swear he is so in love with Trump he would most likely dump his wife to marry him.
…………………………..

A typical libtard maneuver. Rather than growing a set and attack me as Man, you try and build consensus, a mob. Good luck.

You buggers can’t do anything on your own. That’s why you slave to a master and whine like babies cause someone makes more loot than you.

So Robin DoNothing from the Toronto Start is Backing Off from her big lie about Rob Ford in the crack video. Originally the star and gawker said he called the T2 a fag.
And saying F-ing minorities.

A complete libtard fabrication that really set the mob on him.

It’s High Time the DSM should add Liberalism as a mental disorder. Hook up with big pharma and make pill and help humify these inbred mental cases.

#157 DON on 08.12.16 at 12:07 pm

#144 Trump Train-wreck on 08.12.16 at 10:08 am

#108 Metaxa on 08.11.16 at 11:43 pm

nice poem Smoking Man.

Didn’t Guns N’ Roses do something awfully similar, call it November Rain?

Back in ’91?

Plagiarism, Hunter at his worst never stooped so low.

But then, what would one expect from an amateur Trump apologist?
______________________________________
Haven’t you noticed nothing original comes from this guy? Smoking Man has drunk the Trump Train-wreck Cool-Aid and is totally taken in by this fake haired orange dufus. Id swear he is so in love with Trump he would most likely dump his wife to marry him

***************************
On this blog…a year ago, most could not see Trudeau winning the election. There is still 90 days left and a lot can happen – more leaked emails. The only ones that seems to be coming out in flavor of Clinton are the usual suspects (wall street, CIA, MSM, etc etc). Anything is possible.

#158 Brazil ex-pat on 08.12.16 at 12:09 pm

Compared to all the “monster homes” in Surrey along with the horror show called traffic – Langley is far from ugly.

#159 BOOM! on 08.12.16 at 12:18 pm

August, dog days (Felix, cat days for you). Markets doing OK.
Watching the rent seeking bankers and the 1%er’s (so called) look at the tired debt burdened homeowners.

One would think the “homeowners” and debt burdened would at some point, wonder, “what the hell are we doing?” Guess not, maybe today’s younger think they can get out of a hole by digging out the bottom.

Maybe it will work for them, i never had any luck with the concept.

Anyhow, wondering where all this ‘recovery’ is, it is not too readily apparent here, though everybody who wants to work is working. I just see the debt numbers getting BIGGER. No Federal changes are in the offering, just BS as usual…

Meanwhile, I’ll be content as my investments are proceeding well.

Out for dinner with a former colleague tonight at Wisconsin Dells. Fish dinner overlooking lake Delton. yumm!!

Hope the weatherman cooperates, storms predicted!!

#160 Noel on 08.12.16 at 12:20 pm

#100 MF on 08.11.16 at 10:58 pm
#70 rknusa on 08.11.16 at 8:37 pm

“Justin Trudeau is a traitor to this country”
#78 Smoking Man on 08.11.16 at 9:13 pm

-Hey remember how Harper was lambasted for the TFW program??????

Whoever voted for this guy is dumb (serious). Just tell em what they want to hear with him. Free weed for all the loser potheads.

I’m convinced males who believe in leftist leaning politicians have lower testosterone. They are (from what I see) less fit/fatter, less social, less ambitious, less attractive, less aggressive etc.

Sounds like low test.

MF

____________________

That’s the same language that the kid in California used before he shot all those people, get help.

#161 Lillooet, BC on 08.12.16 at 12:21 pm

Garth is a doomer!
According to Shawn, Calgary or Alberta is just doing fine.

#162 Self Directed on 08.12.16 at 12:38 pm

…when things break, they’re going to break huge. Just have patience and wait it out. Don’t get sucked in by the propaganda of ‘It always goes up.’ – Marc Cohodes

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/meet-the-wall-street-short-seller-betting-against-canadian-real-estate

#163 Kelly on 08.12.16 at 1:10 pm

Garth – After catching up on the last 2 weeks of posts, you leave me feeling depressed! What hope does our economy have? Feels like it will be decades (or more) before Canada will be able to recover from the mess we’ve put ourselves in. Is there any hope?

#164 Nelley on 08.12.16 at 1:22 pm

The latest dirt that has come out on Crooked Hillary is just vile and disgusting (you can Google it yourselves-don’t want to upset the sensitive)-you would think the Globalists would have been able to find a cleaner puppet to run.

#165 Josh in Calgary on 08.12.16 at 1:38 pm

I read an article several years back stating that the surest sign that an economy is about to go belly up is when they are building far too many sky scrapers. Each one bigger and better than the last. Said this to many people in Calgary over the last several years since the buildings were going up by the dozen. At first to laughs. Then to nervous chuckles (2014/2015) and now to nods of agreement.

Of course the reason for this is sky scrapers take years to build and even longer to pay out. You have to be fairly certain you’ll have it close to full and tenants paying good rent for most of that time. When too many people believe this to be a given and fail to see the downside then the economy is ripe for a correction.

#166 Context on 08.12.16 at 1:51 pm

#56 Context :- Lets take a look at the contract for sale on a 2 bedroom 2 bathroom for $410,000. The builder’s website will not allow one to see anything unless you register to get in with personal info and tried to backdoor it but no luck there or anywhere so facts were not forthcoming. I clicked on something by mistake and down came the real estate agent representing the pre-sale months ago with the words sales now open.

I got mostly what was needed as he gave the from prices for the one bedrooms and the one bedrooms plus a den with a detailed description of the building; even the click on mapping was correct. Note that from will be the bottom most units increasing in price as one approaches the top over 50 floors. One bedrooms $418,990 and one bedrooms plus a den $478,990, but nothing further so the from for 2 bedrooms were expensive. The market is collapsing.

#167 MaggieB on 08.12.16 at 1:58 pm

@Dr. Morrell

My grandmother gave birth to my father in 1924 at the age of 47. No modern medicine to help, no prenatal testing. Birth control was problematic in those days, so how common was her story? My father was healthy and normal, by the way.

#168 Self Directed on 08.12.16 at 2:42 pm

I remember the fall of 2008, here in Canada the economy started to wobble with job cuts and housing prices falling 20%, and not rebounding until emergency rates came to the rescue. All things considered, houses were cheap then.

That was 8 years ago. And now housing is in the stratosphere and the economy is once again stressed and negative.

We all know what supports a Housing Bubble:

1. Economic Boom
2. Low Interest rates
3. Consumer confidence

What happens if we lose all three at once?

Over the next few months, our economy is going to get battered hard. It’s already starting, but the effects will be hard to ignore early 2017. The hangover will be felt everywhere, with hardest hit in the GVRD. Frozen wages are guaranteed, but job security is off the table. Brace yourselves…. Winter is coming.

#169 Smartalox on 08.12.16 at 2:50 pm

@ Carlyle #68:

Don’t listen to Dr. Morrell, given the spelling and grammatical errors in that post, I doubt that this poster is much of a doctor.

I became a father two years ago at age 40. Yes, that means that I’ll be working to keep up with a 20-year old when I’m 60. I have a friend who became a father at the same time, for the first time at 60, and he’s in better shape than I am.

While risk of birth defects increases with age, the greater challenge when women age (as it was in our case) is declining fertility. You and your wife should consult with a fertility specialist and get her FSH hormone levels tested, just to know where you stand.

Treatment costs start small, but increase exponentially depending on the degree of intervention required. At least you’re into a defined benefit pension plan, and so will be better positioned to cover costs related to fertility treatments.

Our total expenditures rose to the mid five-figures, and easily could have been 20% higher but for some amazing drug benefit coverage.

Our plan forced some lifestyle choices – we rent our home, and so have avoided mega-mortgage payments, and we’re on an intensive 5-year plan to build a nest egg that will grow compounded (8% last year!) to support our retirement in 20 years’ time. After 5 years, by my projections, we’ll be able to throttle back our savings rate, but as it stands, we’re quite comfortable.

We’re fortunate that our combined income earns us a few extras, and junior’s RESP is promptly paid in full, at the start of each year, and growing almost as fast as he is!

But if I had the choice, I’d advocate for an earlier start at raising a family, AND at saving for retirement. If my nest egg 10 years ago were half what it is now, (i.e.: if I had saved more) my retirement plans would now be fully-funded, and compounding quietly. If I had started a family at 30, I’d have had a larger family.

As a contemporary of mine (and mother of two) put it, she thought that 25 was the perfect age to have kids: you’re young enough to stay up all night, and earn enough to spend money on booze and travel. We just made different choices.

#170 Barb on 08.12.16 at 3:09 pm

A new building going up in my town…yup, another bank.
So that’s all 4 corners.

At almost every street corner, banks or gas stations.
Or burger joints.

Gawd, I’d hate to be looking for a job these days…

#171 Smoking Man on 08.12.16 at 3:29 pm

Alex Jones loses it…

Love that dude

http://www.infowars.com/new-world-orders-secret-philosophy-revealed/

#172 Brian Ripley on 08.12.16 at 4:12 pm

For those of you who think Donald Trump is worth your praise, be advised, he is a psychopath:

Here is Tony Schwartz on Bill Maher https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EFztpMXbG4

And here is Scott Adams (Dilbert creator) on Bill Maher explaining a technique that Trump uses to persuade people: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwVHgjDFGwU

And here (with my notes) is the Robert Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) … a diagnostic tool used to rate a person’s psychopathic or antisocial tendencies.
http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3405700188.html

1) glib and superficial charm CHECK
2) grandiose (exaggeratedly high) estimation of self CHECK
3) need for stimulation CHECK
4) pathological lying CHECK
5) cunning and manipulativeness CHECK
6) lack of remorse or guilt CHECK
7) shallow affect (superficial emotional responsiveness) CHECK
8) callousness and lack of empathy CHECK
9) parasitic lifestyle CHECK
10) poor behavioral controls CHECK
11) sexual promiscuity CHECK
12) early behavior problems CHECK (kicked out of prep school, sent to military school)
13) lack of realistic long-term goals ??? (bankruptcy 4 times – no doubt lots of failed or broken contracts)
14) impulsivity CHECK
15) irresponsibility CHECK
16) failure to accept responsibility for own actions CHECK
17) many short-term marital relationships CHECK
18) juvenile delinquency ??? (definitely juvenile – see #12 above – and probably delinquent many times – bankruptcy, broken contracts etal)
19) revocation of conditional release ??? (although he talks of change, he remains the same)
20) criminal versatility​ ??? (Casino and predatory mafioso culture as well as admiration for the “tough-man” Putin etal)

#173 Victor V on 08.12.16 at 4:21 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/news/u-s-election-brexit-may-weigh-on-rate-moves-on-both-sides-of-the-border

The BoC’s next rate decision is on Sept. 7. But a change in policy, if any, is not expected until the bank’s Oct. 19 rate announcement when Poloz also releases the quarterly Monetary Policy Report — an updated review and forecast for the domestic and global economies.

BMO’s Kavcic said a quarter-point cut “isn’t going to make a difference” to the overall economy, but could further fuel the housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto.

For over-extended Canadians, any reduction in lending rates “is a message to consumers and homebuyers to just go ahead and borrow more and take on more debt,” he added.

Even though policymakers expect a healthy third-quarter bounce back, “the continued underperformance of Canadian exports is putting in doubt the BoC’s forecast that growth will improve in the second half of 2016,” Charles St-Arnaud, an economist at Nomura Securities in London, said in a note to clients.

“We believe that this under-performance in exports has increased the likelihood that the BoC will have to cut rates later this year.”

#174 Brian Ripley on 08.12.16 at 4:29 pm

And if you have 30 minutes, here is an audio of David Cay Johnston an award winning investigative journalist and New York Times best-selling author, who has dug deeply into the dirty laundry of Donald Trump:

http://www.pointofinquiry.org/donald_trumps_dirty_laundry_with_david_cay_johnston/

#175 Nemesis on 08.12.16 at 4:35 pm

#Don’tTellTheSmokingManBut…

[Politico] – GOP insiders: Trump can’t win – ‘Trump is underperforming so comprehensively…it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America,’’ said an Iowa Republican.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-electoral-votes-gop-insiders-226932

#176 jess on 08.12.16 at 4:58 pm

“This coordinated takedown is the largest in history, both in terms of the number of defendants charged and loss amount. ”

Wednesday, June 22, 2016
National Health Care Fraud Takedown Results in Charges against 301 Individuals for Approximately $900 Million in False Billing

Most Defendants Charged and Largest Alleged Loss Amount in Strike Force History

Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch and Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Sylvia Mathews Burwell announced today an unprecedented nationwide sweep led by the Medicare Fraud Strike Force in 36 federal districts, resulting in criminal and civil charges against 301 individuals, including 61 doctors, nurses and other licensed medical professionals, for their alleged participation in health care fraud schemes involving approximately $900 million in false billings. Twenty-three state Medicaid Fraud Control Units also participated in today’s arrests. In addition, the HHS Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is suspending payment to a number of providers using its suspension authority provided in the Affordable Care Act.

#177 45north on 08.12.16 at 5:04 pm

Andrew Woburn: I was unable to find a financial statement for Alterna Bank as its accounts are consolidated with its parent, Alterna Savings, a credit union. However the total assets at Dec. 31, 2015 of the combined entity are about $3 billion of which $1.3 is residential mortgage debt and $1.0 billion is commercial loans. Consolidated equity is a snick under $200 million or about 6.5% of total assets. Granted this is probably a well run financial institution and it would likely take a real estate crash and a recession to carve so much off asset values but at that point it would be insolvent.

some more info:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alterna_Savings

#178 Nelley on 08.12.16 at 5:17 pm

#174Brian-maybe your cub reporter should dig into the dirty laundry of his owner (Carlos Slim)-or better yet give the sheep the dirty details of Crooked Hillary’s bragging about successfully defending a guilty 41 year old thug who brutally raped a 12 year old girl.

You drivel about the US election is unwelcome. no more will be published. — Garth

#179 Mark on 08.12.16 at 5:18 pm

“Now, Mark proposes that this may lead to an appreciation of the CAD, but I don’t quite understand why that would be. Less demand for Canadian bonds would suggest less demand for the CA dollar, no? “

Repayment of domestic consumer debt *is* demand for CAD$ bonds (after all, bonds *are* debt, and all debt can be thought of as bonds). And we know that consumer debt is at record levels. ~$1.5T in mortgage debt alone, and additional large amounts in other ‘consumer’ categories. Makes the sovereign debt and the paltry amounts of corporate debt out there look paltry.

The more debt, the stronger the deflation and consumer demand truncation. Especially in an inherently productive economy such as Canada’s.

#180 boonerator on 08.12.16 at 5:22 pm

135 Diana on 08.12.16 at 8:16 am

What is FOMO an acronym for?
—————————————————–
Fear Of Missing Out

or a variant I just made up

NATW
Nose Against The Window

(a window stocked with glamorous and expensive things)

#181 Mark on 08.12.16 at 5:25 pm

“Consolidated equity is a snick under $200 million or about 6.5% of total assets. Granted this is probably a well run financial institution and it would likely take a real estate crash and a recession to carve so much off asset values but at that point it would be insolvent.”

Unfortunately the devil is in the details. 6.5% equity isn’t much of an equity cushion, and even relatively modest losses can burn that cushion away to levels beneath that required for the institution to maintain credibility. Banking regulators and even the general depositing public will not tolerate under-capitalized institutions before initiating increases to funding costs.

Additionally, a chunk of that ‘equity’ may very well be in assets such as buildings, trademarks, and other assets which are not realistically available in defense of the credit union’s balance sheet in a time of crisis.

I’m not offering a comment on the risk in that particular credit union (and none is intended). But “the devil is in the details”. If most of the loan book at risk were insured through the CMHC and highly geographically and economically diversified (as is the case for the big-5 federally chartered institutions), I’d be a lot more comfortable with the institutions sustainability than the most likely case of loans being highly geographically and sectorally concentrated in that particular CU. Basically most of what Garth preaches in terms of diversification to smaller investors on this blog also applies equally, if not even more importantly to highly leveraged financial institutions, of which that CU is an example.

#182 jess on 08.12.16 at 6:38 pm

self reporting seems to have failed in the underwriting departments

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/united-states-files-lawsuit-alleging-guild-mortgage-improperly-originated-and-underwrote-fha

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/37036-mt-bank-latest-to-settle-fha-lending-violations-will-pay-64-million

#183 Brazil ex-pat on 08.12.16 at 9:58 pm

I wonder how many of these anti-Trump people work for the Govt or are “pro Govt” in some way……

#184 Brazil ex-pat on 08.13.16 at 4:13 am

#179 Mark on 08.12.16 at 5:18 pm

The more debt, the stronger the deflation and consumer demand truncation. Especially in an inherently productive economy such as Canada’s.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Canada has the laziest least productive workforce in the G-20. I am sure having a bloated multi-level layer of govt sucking the life out of the economy does not help. In any case…..Canada does not have a “inherently productive economy”.

#185 Brazil ex-pat on 08.13.16 at 11:32 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1RU4e0fnBc

Judge Jeanine on the Clinton Foundation.