Fearmongering

NEWS TRUCK modified

The last thing you should be doing these days is sitting on cash, buying gold, loading up on GICs or visiting doomer web sites (except this one, naturally). While the world has not shortage of problems, nutjobs, opportunistic politicians and public stupidity, there are solid reasons to get invested and stay that way.

If your advisor’s telling you stocks are too expensive, bonds are not worth holding, preferreds and REITs might suffer from a Canadian rate cut and this is the time to hide under a rock, get a new guy. This year has already given two stunning opportunities to get invested – the commodity crash in February and the Brexit surprise in June. Markets and portfolio survived both and have gone on reward those who jumped in, or held on and ignored the volatility.

So far this year, Bay Street is ahead 13.42%, Wall Street is up 6.5%, REITs have returned 17% and preferreds are in the black by about 18%. Even a lowly bond ETF has gained 3% since the year began (compared with a six-month GIC is yielding 0.35%, or one-tenth the return. Moreover, GIC interest is 100% taxable, while the ETF gain is only 50% taxable, unless held in a TFSA, where there is zilch tax).

A balanced portfolio is up about 5% over the last seven months, and there and solid reasons to stay invested.

For example, the current odds of Hillary Clinton becoming the next US president, as opposed to that lunatic demagogue, are currently 84%. Markets like Democrats more than Republicans. Investors are apoplectic about Trump. By comparison, Clinton – despite all her warts and baggage – is a known commodity who won’t be a giant distraction from what matters, which is helping companies make money inside a growing economy, with rising equity markets.

As far as the financial guys go, Trump’s toast. Big market rally in November.

While the Canadian economy slumps, the US continues to move ahead with over 500,000 new jobs created in the last two months. The doomsters, Trumpians and bullion-lickers hate this, which is why they come here to spread their sauce of despair. They refute the government stats, tell you America’s in recession and the world will collapse in a debt soufflé with your paper money worthless. Yawn.

The slow, steady, relentless recovery to the south of us continues. That economy should grow by 2% this year, commodity values will sawtooth higher, interest rates nudge judiciously higher, corporate profits finish 2016 strongly and equity markets hold on to record levels. Those who moan about US debt levels fail to mention the budget deficit has cratered to lows not seen in a decade. Consistent and sustained growth, even lacklustre, is enough to easily service debt – most of which never will be repaid.

And what about central banks? Far from being the manipulative villains that gold nuts hate, these guys have largely co-ordinated monetary policy around the world since the 2008-9 disaster, fighting the forces of deflation and waning consumer demand with cheap money and oodles of stimulus. The main reason 2010 did not end up looking like 1932 was monetary policy – and the fact central banks from Washington to Beijing, London and Ottawa were singing from the same music.

After trillions spent, there’s no way these dudes are going to blow it now. US interest rates will crawl upwards as economic expansion dictates, while sad places in need of more stimulus (like Britain and Canada) will probably get it. There were many lessons learned in the 2008 credit crisis, with one of the biggest being the forever need for integrated global finances. This is what makes events like Brexit and populists like Trump memorable, and irrelevant.

What financial markets have done this year, despite the UK vote, terrorism, the commodity price collapse, China fears, US politics and glacial growth, is not because of central bank pumping or investor ignorance. It reflects the fact the world’s biggest economy is expanding, technology is rampant, global GDP is growing and we’ve never in history has a more concerted or coordinated effort to stay on the road.

Back in February when oil was twenty-seven bucks and market swooning I tried to talk a guy out of turning his whole half-million-dollar balanced portfolio (then down 3%) into cash. I lost. Four weeks later he was begging to have all the trades done again, because things looked better and prices rising. That little emotional burp cost him tens of thousands of dollars. All because he follows a blog written by a wimp – who’s once again telling people to go to cash.

Moral: the world is not ending. Unless, of course, you live in Vancouver.

210 comments ↓

#1 Never learn on 08.08.16 at 6:41 pm

No correction. Called it first!

#2 Interstellar Star Stuff on 08.08.16 at 6:46 pm

Dude pays you to help him and then needlessly bails.. double whacked!!

Been a very solid year despite all the craziness

#3 Popeye the Sailor Man on 08.08.16 at 6:49 pm

Was Donald driving that van?

#4 Doug t on 08.08.16 at 6:49 pm

monies cheap people – get out there and buy stuff

#5 boonerator on 08.08.16 at 6:52 pm

Thing about cash..
If I had had more available, I could have taken better advantage of those ETF’s that rebounded after Brexit. Thanks blog dogs, XEH up 8% but I did not have a large amount of cash to take better advantage.
Next time, yeah, that’s the ticket, I’ll be ready.
There is bound to be a burp that panics sellers into driving down the price of perfectly good ETF’s, ready for the blog dogs to take advantage of a buying opportunity.

#6 Pete on 08.08.16 at 6:53 pm

You know what I like most about you, Garth?
Your stubborn refusal to stoop to pessimism.
I certainly don’t agree with everything you say, but your level headed, thoughtful optimism is so welcome in this world full of complaint about the state of things. Bravo.

#7 Not a guy on 08.08.16 at 6:54 pm

Arguably the most important central banker is not a guy

A genderless term. — Garth

#8 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 6:54 pm

As far as the financial guys go, Trump’s toast. Big market rally in November.-Garth.
……….

You’ve never bucked rivets, have you Garth. You can only relate to one asset class.

The only way Trump will lose is if Hillary won’t debate him…

No matter how much shit MSM chucks at your wide screens. The Donald will dominate the debates and get his message out..

I know for a fact he’s got a great Dr of Herdonomics advising his team… Did you not see that speech in Detroit today. A total change of tactic. 2 weeks Kain who?

Suiside Squad, that sexist, Mysoginistc flick made more loot this weekend than that femanazis Ghost Busters did all month.

Trump will win by a land slide.

Bet according…….

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#9 Suede on 08.08.16 at 6:57 pm

Balanced portfolios are up in the last 7 months, but they have only just recovered to their peak achieved last year.

I still believe Trump will win.

Media and social groups love Hilary. But individually, people like Trump. And people go to the voting booth individually.

pass the popcorn!

#10 Russ on 08.08.16 at 6:58 pm

Oh good. It’s okay to time the market.

When is the next opportunity? Some cash awaits.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.08.16 at 6:59 pm

‘Lunatic demagogue” ….
Not only describes “The Donald”
It describes a lot of people that come here…………

#12 Bill Gable on 08.08.16 at 7:00 pm

Vancouver is one big MESS. The streets are clogged, because there are construction cranes, trucks, and homes are being ripped up. Then add way too many vehicles – and 1950’s infrastructure. The City is being destroyed, and no one seems to care. It’s like a Hurricane has hit much of YVR.

#13 tfresh on 08.08.16 at 7:02 pm

Which preferred share ETF is up by about 18% ?

#14 YVRpeasant on 08.08.16 at 7:03 pm

Damn, I was starting to feel really optimistic about this post until I read that last sentence.

#15 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 7:05 pm

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.08.16 at 6:59 pm
‘Lunatic demagogue” ….
Not only describes “The Donald”
It describes a lot of people that come here…………
……

Refreshing if you ask me…

#16 james on 08.08.16 at 7:07 pm

“And what about central banks? Far from being the manipulative villains that gold nuts hate, these guys have largely co-ordinated monetary policy around the world since the 2008-9 disaster, fighting the forces of deflation and waning consumer demand with cheap money and oodles of stimulus. ”

What I find funny about this is that there is this implicit assumption that a group of people can coordinate an economy.

The failure of the Soviets demonstrated the futility of top-down command-and-control style visions. So why then do we have alleged free market advocates like GT singing the praises of the same style of management?

The simple fact is that there is no evidence that anyone is capable of managing an economy. Economies are complex adaptive systems that are not amenable to control. At best they can be influenced and meddled with. Counter-factual claims such as ‘central bankers did a great job’ are very difficult to provide evidence for.

“There were many lessons learned in the 2008 credit crisis”

Actually very few lessons were learned, and very few structural changes were made. The actors involved in the risky bank behaviours made out like bandits, and relatively little research is being spent on the stability of the financial system(s). Compare the research efforts in the latter field with those involved in cancer or any medical condition. Paltry at best. There are a few small research groups (e.g., Didier Sornette, Los Alamos, Neil Johnson), but largely the ‘changes’ are being managed by those who have a strong interest in keeping existing incentive structures intact.

#17 Shawn on 08.08.16 at 7:10 pm

The U.S. Debt

#177 acdel on 08.08.16 at 5:38 pm said:

The underlining fact is that the U.S. is 20 trillion in debt and growing; seriously, how can anybody ignore that????

*****************************************
Investors are not necessarily ignoring the U.S. debt.

But is $20 trillion a lot? Seriously, in the context of the U.S. governments annual revenues can they service the debt?

Apparently their creditors think so and keep lending them money at record low rates.

Are you assuming a national debt has to be paid off at some point? It does not. The U.S. intends to live forever and therefore has no need to ever pay off its debt. (I am not making this up.)

The alternative to that debt is to raise taxes to pay it down. Citizens prefer their government to continue to borrow at about 1% rather than raise taxes to pay down the debt.

As long as the U.S. economy keeps growing, expect that national debt to keep rising. And expect the S&P 500 to continue to rise over the decades as well although it will have its down years as well.

#18 Joe2.0 on 08.08.16 at 7:11 pm

Just finished a round of golf on the Sunshine Coast.
The course has recently been bought by foreign investors.

The employee I was speaking to said that the employees were all quitting because the new owners were so difficult to work for.

He said that the owners were bringing in foreign workers under the guise that they couldn’t get employees from the Coast that could do the jobs adequately.

The owners have a cabin near the course with at least 7 mattresses in it for the new imported employees.

It sounds like an immigration scam to me.

#19 the other white meat (pork) on 08.08.16 at 7:11 pm

Brexit was nothing compared to that stupid interest rate stunt the Americans pulled at the beginning of the year. How can you be a cheerleader for higher interest rates when the stock market gets slaughtered by a measly.25 percent increase?

The advice to stay the course is sound over the long term and I love the narratives, but my remaining cash is waiting for that next plunge after the interest rate announcement . Guess I just don’t have big enough balls for those kinds of falls

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.08.16 at 7:13 pm

@#158 Victor V
“There’s been a lot of terrible economic news in recent weeks. At what point does this become a problem for Justin Trudeau?”
*******************************************

In the Fall when he has to put his shirt back on…..

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/shirtless-justin-trudeau-accidentally-photo-bombs-b-c-beach-wedding-1.3710479&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwj17L_x-LLOAhVV7mMKHbtkD54QqQIIFjAA&usg=AFQjCNHyErZNNF38pAOH8Q_FBh4xIf8HwQ

#21 S.Bby on 08.08.16 at 7:13 pm

#12 Bill Gable
and to add to that, Vision Vancouver’s war on the private automobile. Bike lanes taking road capacity, pedestrian controlled traffic lights on every street, roads blocked off to traffic, the viaducts coming down, West End resident’s street parking permit rates going through the roof, and on and on it goes…

#22 Context on 08.08.16 at 7:13 pm

Mark your calendars for the big show and tell. Fall Canadian Pet Expo from September 10 to 11 at the International Centre in Mississauga. Dog friendly and what a great place to buy or sell doggy treats.

#23 RentYVR on 08.08.16 at 7:14 pm

So you praise the central banks for “fixing” (i.e. re-inflating) the markets that they helped over inflate in the first place. What kind of logic is that? I thought you stopped being a politician?!?

#24 Shawn on 08.08.16 at 7:14 pm

Cash?

It would have been hard to take advantage of the January/ February plunge or the Brexit plunge without at least SOME cash.

A target of something like 10% cash when markets seem fairly valued, 20% when markets seem too high and going to down to near 0% by scooping up stocks on panics might not be a bad plan. And yes, that does imply a bit of market timing. A policy of 0% cash at all times is not for everyone.

#25 and this is why on 08.08.16 at 7:17 pm

re: #7 Not a guy on 08.08.16 at 6:54 pm

Arguably the most important central banker is not a guy

A genderless term. — Garth

======

This is why Canada is so gosh darn uncompetitive and pathetic. So fixated on political correctness. Useless as a Justin Trudeau shirtless pose.

At least the T2 pose helps women more than your pointless feminist ranting.

#26 fancy_pants on 08.08.16 at 7:17 pm

Man oh man. If trump surprises in nov then the markets will take a dump. Or as i suspect they will begin to act accordingly in october

#27 Gogo on 08.08.16 at 7:19 pm

Garth, if you have read the annial letters of one of the most successful canadian investors you would know that “It is better to be wrong, wrong, wrong and then right than to be right right right and then wrong”. In this respect you have a chance with your predictions of the housing market.

#28 Shawn on 08.08.16 at 7:23 pm

Paying Down Government Debt

The very simply alternative for tax payers is, do you personally wish to pay $1000 now to pay down debt or have your government continue to finance that indefinitely and tax you $10 to $20 per year?

Most taxpayers have other debts that cost them more than 1 to 2% or they simply don’t have the $1000. When this math is honestly presented the population will choose to keep the government debt every time.

Seriously, it NEVER has to be repaid. It can be financed and rolled over forever.

Which country has paid off all its debt ever? It may have happened. But I think it is very rare. Name a Western nation that has done so in the past 100 years. (And then just to be fair, name the other 99% that have not.)

#29 A Yank in BC on 08.08.16 at 7:24 pm

“Markets like Democrats more than Republicans.”

Oh gosh.. I beg to differ. It’s only a half-truth.. at best. What markets like is when Congress and the White House are held by opposing parties, as they have been for the last 6 years. The S&P has certainly done quite nicely during that time period.

#30 15% on 08.08.16 at 7:28 pm

If you want yield invest in BC bonds, i heard the province will grow income by 15%. It started on august 2nd.
Btw here in beautiful BC everything 20 km close to the Pacific is not selling, but houses in Langley still hot, probably the albertans are not charged 15% even though they diserve it or the local rednecks didn’t read newspapers in the last 2 weeks.
Oh well, grab de popcorn, realtors are reporting low volume lately

#31 Trump2016 on 08.08.16 at 7:29 pm

“For example, the current odds of Hillary Clinton becoming the next US president, as opposed to that lunatic demagogue, are currently 84%.”

As accurate as a condom with a hole or your prediction about Brexit.

check this:

https://pushingrubberdownhill.com/2016/08/07/trump-is-not-running-against-hillary/

#32 Basil Fawlty on 08.08.16 at 7:30 pm

Hey Garth, you still sound like the band leader on the Titanic, only more frantic.
You continually fail to acknowledge real factors indicating that US job creation is a mirage ( labor participation rate). You tell us the central bankers know what they are doing, yet ignore $13T in sovereign at negative interest. How about those interest rate increases? One would think a .25% increase in the last seven years might make you at least a little humble, but no you are still the smartest guy in the room.
Keep chasing your unicorns, the stock market will go to 40,000, if they print enough and maintain ZIRP. Luckily, they know what they are doing. What a joke.

#33 Mr. Frugal on 08.08.16 at 7:31 pm

The “financial guys” are often wrong. They were wrong on Brexit and they are wrong on Trump. When November rolls around and Trump wins, the folks on Wall Street will flip out and provide us with another excellent buying opportunity.

#34 not 1st on 08.08.16 at 7:32 pm

If Canada is doing so bad, how come the TSX is on a tear.

#35 jas on 08.08.16 at 7:32 pm

Folks:
Don’t just believe stock market numbers given here. Do your own research.
By reading here I called my advisor saying I am unhappy but she then showed me the numbers which were ok for me to decide to stay put.

#36 Fluorine on 08.08.16 at 7:33 pm

Heya Grant,

Can I get some clarification about this:
(Paragraph 8)

“…Those who moan about US debt levels fail to mention the budget deficit has cratered to lows not seen in a decade. Consistent and sustained growth, even lacklustre, is enough to easily service debt – most of which never will be repaid.”

This implies that being perpetually indebted is fine, as long as you can service the interest payments… contrary to everything we believe (and have been told here)!

And can you explain this part, and why it shouldn’t terrify me?

“… most of which never will be repaid.”

Those are USTs you are talking about, right? Will they just monetize them like JGBs, which will have zero coupon, and just be carried by the BoJ forever?

That seems a bit scary, coming from you. I had to check that this was GreaterFool, and not ZH, where I usually see that kinda stuff.

Thanks in advance!

~Flu

#37 JSS on 08.08.16 at 7:36 pm

Rub your tummy…

– Emera announces a 10% increase in its annual common share dividend to $2.09 from $1.90.

– Emera extends its 8% annual dividend growth target through to 2020 (from 2019).

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160808006280/en/Emera-Reports-Q2-2016-Earnings

#38 Sandy Westgate on 08.08.16 at 7:39 pm

Our 5 year RRSP GIC’s and non-registered GIC’s earn 2.75% to 3.05% compound annual interest a year. In 6 months it has earned 1.452% to 1.62% not 0.35%.

The RRSP GIC’s are going to be cashed in as a RRIF so $2,000 a year times 2 so $4,000 a year is tax free and the the next $18,000 a year each so $36,000 a year is tax free as well.

This is all due to pension income tax credits, personal amounts and age amounts as well.

This gives us $40,000 a year in interest that is all tax free, 100% tax free, 0% income taxes.

Our $400,000 in life insurance policies are also 100% tax free.

Our C.P.P, OAS are the only income taxed at 21% which is only $5,000 a year. We get to keep $60,000 of our $65,000 a year or 92.3% of all our money.

We have $0 debts. This is even much more important not paying $1,000, $1,500+ a month in debt payments than saving say $3,000, $4,000 a year in income taxes etc.

This is what is destroying Canadians’ finances everyday and more and more seniors, retirees.

Our TFSA GIC’s are all tax free as well as you already pointed out.

#39 Moron Face on 08.08.16 at 7:44 pm

The best days for the global economy are in the future, not the past.

#40 The fight to keep globalism on 08.08.16 at 7:45 pm

It has never been more obvious that big capital is in bed with Washington DC through the two parties, the common enemy are the independent candidates they didn’t wet, as they never imagined that the public would support them.

After Brexit even the pretended party-lines are dropped in a coordinated effort to push through the puppet Hillary.

Garth is, of course part of this establishment – he would also rather vote for JT if globalism was at risk of popular vote in Canada.

#41 acdel on 08.08.16 at 7:48 pm

#6 Pete
You know what I like most about you, Garth?
Your stubborn refusal to stoop to pessimism.
I certainly don’t agree with everything you say, but your level headed, thoughtful optimism is so welcome in this world full of complaint about the state of things. Bravo.
————————————————————-

Love your Bravo and I will always respect Garth’s opinions; but respect other opinions. There is a fine line between pessimism and realism, look at the big picture and you may get it.

#42 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 08.08.16 at 7:57 pm

“WEALTH, WAR & WISDOM”…

Is the title of a fabulous book published by the late Wall Street hedge-fund operator, Barton Biggs in 2008.

If investors need some kind of solace during these crazy markets and economies, this book is THE CURRENT ANTIDOTE.

Biggs spends many pages discussing the “wisdom ” of stock and bond market investors.

He doesn’t deal with what’s happening now because it’s small potatoes. Instead he writes about what occurred during World War 2, the greatest and most violent human conflict in history, bar none, and how stock markets (investors), on both sides responded.

Here are just three epic events of many he covers:

–the Battle of Britain, in 1940, when UK markets hit all time lows then started climbing;

–when the US market turned forever upward following the Battles of the Coral Sea and Midway, in 1942;

–the German invasion of the Soviet Union, 1941, the high water mark of the Berlin DAX market before it turned turtle as the invasion started going badly later that year, culminating in the disaster known as — Stalingrad.

Biggs writes:

“…Those were the three great momentum changes of World War 2 — although at the time, no one except the stock markets recognized them such.”

This confirmed the extraordinary (and unrecognized) wisdom of market crowds, he writes.

While he says many European countries, and people, suffered grievous economic and market losses, including in Communist-controlled Eastern Europe, post-war, the “winner” countries on the allied side that included Canada and the US, came out of the debacle in great shape.

He also notes that “Mr. Market” often “sensed important tipping points that…few of the elite grasped.” He is highly critical of the elite, especially journalists and economists, for whom he has little respect. So should EVERY investor.

But Biggs also has a caution: understanding the difference between “groupthink”, and the madness of crowds, and “crowdthink”, where group members (investors) don’t know or ignore what others in the group think, before they decide whether to buy or sell.

As he says, “crowds do have imbedded in them a collective wisdom that is very prescient but it has to be artfully extracted.”

He concludes that long term market price actions “is a highly efficient collection mechanism.”

So, I now refer to what St. Garth of Prescient Always inscribes this date:

“What financial markets have done this year, despite the UK vote, terrorism, the commodity price collapse, China fears, US politics and glacial growth, is not because of central bank pumping or investor ignorance. It reflects the fact the world’s biggest economy is expanding, technology is rampant, global GDP is growing and we’ve never in history had a more concerted or coordinated effort to stay on the road.”

Precisely: Mr. Biggs and Mr. Garth are speaking from the same song book.

Madness of crowds indeed. Not good.

To be a reasonably successful investor use your gut and head, in concert, and look at only the very big geopolitical picture where…the answer is ALWAYS THERE FOR THE OBSERVANT INVESTOR. Always and forever.

#43 acdel on 08.08.16 at 7:58 pm

#17 Shawn

Raise taxes on whom?? Print money for how long???
Give me a break and give your head a shake; you are exactly the person we should all ignore!

Spill it elsewhere and please people ignore this type of mentality and look at the big picture.

#44 BOOM! on 08.08.16 at 8:01 pm

Yup. Been a decent year so far.

Yup. Had some cash to buy ‘distressed REITS and stocks in Feb.

Yup. Took some profits to replenish (some) of that cash margin.

Yup. The driver of the van in tonight’s picture fled the scene.

Yup. Contractor, and it was his truck – Uninsured.

Yup. Homeowner was a independent named Bernie…

(Yup. So it wasn’t my best work)

Where did Flopper Flee??? calling Flopper…

#45 Damifino on 08.08.16 at 8:02 pm

#12 Bill Gable

“Vancouver is one big MESS. The streets are clogged, because there are construction cranes, trucks, and homes are being ripped up. Then add way too many vehicles – and 1950’s infrastructure.”
————————————-

Couldn’t agree more Bill.

I don’t go out too much any more. It’s not so pretty now. The city is being ripped to shreds under the mantra of hypocritical green-speak and rabid speculation courtesy of our city counsel who march to the beat of the Condo King.

I shoot for the off hours whenever possible. It’s still a nice city to drive in between the hours of 11:00 PM and 5:00 AM. There’s nobody out there and most of the traffic lights on the major streets are flashing green.

The best time to visit Stanley Park is on an October Tuesday morning in the rain. It’s fabulous then. Never go near the place on a summer Sunday. Same goes for English Bay and Kits. I like to pick times to walk when only the most diehard bicyclists are out. Those are usually the best behaved ones anyway.

#46 down and out on 08.08.16 at 8:06 pm

I am with Smoky on the election and I make a call Hillary debates him once ,loses badly then excuses out the next 2 ,health reasons , cough attack or Trump just doesn’t play fair .Today HRC needed help up some stairs ,not being truthful about her health ,no health test for highest office and what is it with the tongue hole , surgery,big C . One terrorist attack near Nov.8TH ,LANDSLIDE Trump. Markets rejoice new deal .

#47 Bank of Millennial on 08.08.16 at 8:12 pm

#17 Shawn

Investors are not necessarily ignoring the U.S. debt.

But is $20 trillion a lot? Seriously, in the context of the U.S. governments annual revenues can they service the debt?

Apparently their creditors think so and keep lending them money at record low rates.

Are you assuming a national debt has to be paid off at some point? It does not. The U.S. intends to live forever and therefore has no need to ever pay off its debt. (I am not making this up.)

The alternative to that debt is to raise taxes to pay it down. Citizens prefer their government to continue to borrow at about 1% rather than raise taxes to pay down the debt.

As long as the U.S. economy keeps growing, expect that national debt to keep rising. And expect the S&P 500 to continue to rise over the decades as well although it will have its down years as well.

*****************************************

Of course they never will repay the debt, the US government drives a ton of aggregate demand domestically and internationally. If they stopped spending – a lot of the very businesses, communities, citizens that might invest in US government debt would lose their shirts.

It’s in everyone’s best interests to continue forward until the terms become so substantially unfavourable that other alternatives become favorable..

#48 Bank of Millennial on 08.08.16 at 8:14 pm

Hey Garth,

Do any agencies in Canada produce distribution of debt data, I’d be interested in seeing what our population is at +5x income.

#49 The Wet Coast on 08.08.16 at 8:14 pm

The open houses in Coquitlam this weekend were very quiet. Five months ago there wouldn’t have been anywhere to park. Not now. Also, houses popping up daily on the MLS. The odd thing is many of them are empty? Who moves away and leaves an empty house in this market ;-). Also, all over central Coquitlam each street seems to have a redevelopment house under construction. They are usually really big and someone has lots of $$$$ in them. Some of these are developers and are going to come on the market over the next few months. Looks like the Crickets rule in Coquitlam.

#50 Mark M. on 08.08.16 at 8:17 pm

“After trillions spent, there’s no way these dudes are going to blow it now. US interest rates will crawl upwards as economic expansion dictates.” – Garth

Garth name one other time in history the US Fed raised rates with 1% GDP growth?

The year started with a lot of boasting from you about the robust US economy and the quarterly rate hikes to come this year, you’re now down to ONE.

Your praise of central banking for this economic miracle is the icing in the cake. All you have is ridiculously inflated jobs numbers, and a stock market bubble.

The Fed’s next move is a rate cut, can’t wait for you to explain how this happened.

You will be waiting a long time. — Garth

#51 Mark M. on 08.08.16 at 8:24 pm

Oh, one more thing Garth, why is Bay St. outperforming Wall St. 2-to-1 if we’re such a mess and they’re so healthy?

I’m sure the answer is inconvenient for you, so you’ll probably delete this.

Commodity rebound. — Garth

#52 David on 08.08.16 at 8:28 pm

It looks to me like TransCanada is a buy. If Trump is elected he will approve Keystone. Otherwise Energy East is moving ahead.

#53 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 8:40 pm

Sorry Garth. I side with Warren Buffett, who said, when asked about holding cash,”cash is like oxygen, you always want plenty of it lying around”.

Also, I can completely remove myself from Home ownership, Oil, any asset, when I deem it appropriate. But then again, I have never had a problem buying anything of value when it is really really beaten down, nor have I ever had a problem taking my profits on any asset. I deal with assets in my life the same as I deal with any relationship I am in. There always comes a time when I just gotta let go, for my own well being. Life should always be a pleasure, not a burden. No exceptions. Freedom First, as always.

#54 Shawn on 08.08.16 at 8:43 pm

U.S. Money Printing…

Has been mentioned…

I think it is fair to say that the FED effectively prints money from thin air when they buy U.S. treasury bonds.

So it does seem fair to say that part of the $20 trillion U.S. debt has been financed by printed money.

Currently the Fed balance sheet is $4.5 trillion. So one might say that the Federal debt has been financed up to 22.5% by printing money and 77.5% by borrowing.

There were widespread fears that this money printing would debase the currency and lead to hyper inflation. It simply never happened. The U.S. dollar remains very strong.

#55 Nelley on 08.08.16 at 8:54 pm

Yup-Trump is a lunatic-he wants to massively cut income taxes and simplify the tax code-sounds crazy to me and Garth.

He just announced a tax increase from his previous position. Lunatic. — Garth

#56 AK on 08.08.16 at 8:55 pm

#53 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 8:40 pm

“There always comes a time when I just gotta let go, for my own well being. Life should always be a pleasure, not a burden. No exceptions. Freedom First, as always.”
———————————————————–
Great advice. For a minute there, I thought you took the day off.

#57 Mark M. on 08.08.16 at 9:00 pm

“Commodity rebound.” — Garth

Gold?

That’s funny. Energy = 24%, Financials = 36%, Gold = 1%. — Garth

#58 Freedom free on 08.08.16 at 9:01 pm

#53 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 8:40 pm
Sorry Garth. I side with Warren Buffett, who said, when asked about holding cash,”cash is like oxygen, you always want plenty of it lying around”.

Also, I can completely remove myself from Home ownership, Oil, any asset, when I deem it appropriate. But then again, I have never had a problem buying anything of value when it is really really beaten down, nor have I ever had a problem taking my profits on any asset. I deal with assets in my life the same as I deal with any relationship I am in. There always comes a time when I just gotta let go, for my own well being. Life should always be a pleasure, not a burden. No exceptions. Freedom First, as always.

..

Here’s an idea. Let go of the blog and stop saying the same thing every day. Hell of a rut yer in.

#59 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 9:13 pm

#55 Nelley on 08.08.16 at 8:54 pm
Yup-Trump is a lunatic-he wants to massively cut income taxes and simplify the tax code-sounds crazy to me and Garth.

He just announced a tax increase from his previous position. Lunatic. — Garth
……

Shit you learn on this pathetic blog… Finally the correct spelling for Lunatic. I always went with loonatic, loon = moon. Flowed by wolf cry..

Well my book is off to editing. She’s PhD in bio science, loves Science fiction. She’s edited and written medical journals so I don’t think we will have spelling or Grammer issues.

The question? Will she survive the material. It’s out there…

#60 The Wet Coast on 08.08.16 at 9:18 pm

I’ve been alive for every election cycle since 1960. I don’t recall 1960 or 64 that well. But what I do know is the 2 people running for president are the 2 worst ever. All that will be decided in November is who is.

#61 ANON on 08.08.16 at 9:21 pm

Lunatic. — Garth

Dissonant. Cognitive dissonant. Like all of us, I might add, undersigned included. Some to a larger degree, some to a smaller degree, but dissonant all the same.

#62 Flopper Fan on 08.08.16 at 9:22 pm

#44 BOOM! on 08.08.16 at 8:01 pm

Where did Flopper Flee??? calling Flopper…

———————————————

Flopper, we all miss you & your HUMOR.

#63 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 9:31 pm

Garth let’s put something on the Nov 18 election. A bet..

If Trump Wins you write my book forward. You can write what ever the hell you want.

If he loses I serve ice cream for a day at the forks of the credit. Where all the snivelling Man hating femanazis, lefty loons, teachers all the lower forms of life can come in and ridicule me all day long.

What do you think dogs?

#64 Context on 08.08.16 at 9:34 pm

Will a FED rate cut inflate the real estate bubble and would good would that have when all is said and done for the GTA?

#65 Steve-0 on 08.08.16 at 9:37 pm

Thanks Garth, im at 5.2% YTD. I thought I was lagging behind, but I guess not. It seems like the USD has more of an impact on my portfolio than it should. About 30% in USD.

#66 Nelley on 08.08.16 at 9:43 pm

Here is Trump’s tax plan for objective readers-if this is lunacy I wish it would come to Kathleen Wynne’s Ontario-land of windmills you have to plug in to get them to turn https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/08/donald-trump-tax-plan-business-income-middle-class

#67 Jim on 08.08.16 at 9:43 pm

The main reason 2008 did end up looking like 1932 was monetary policy.

#68 Context on 08.08.16 at 9:46 pm

#50 Mark M – do tell then I will explain it to you so take you best shot.

#69 AisA on 08.08.16 at 9:48 pm

Jep, with smoking man on this one, Trump has it by a landslide. It will be an obscene throttling of Clinton. Generational / hereditary rule has no place in civilized society. Oh snap.

#70 EP on 08.08.16 at 9:50 pm

U.S Job growth is actually zero. They have 200K+ boomers retiring monthly and they added 220K jobs – U.S is still laying people off by attrition, they never stopped.

Since, 2014, there have been 4 million people retiring in U.S annually.

#71 AisA on 08.08.16 at 9:51 pm

Oh it’s that time again. No slow melt, bottomless crater in real estate, can’t end any other way. Just how it’s always been.

#72 Metaxa on 08.08.16 at 9:53 pm

Sometimes when I’m really bored and I see a comment here (or anywhere) that just seems way out there I simply copy the whole thing and then paste it into Google and hit enter.

Interesting what often comes up.

Usually its the “think for yourself, sheeple, study it out” type of posts I’m talking about.

In case you were wondering.

!!!

#73 Trojan House on 08.08.16 at 9:57 pm

I believe it was a central banker who once said there was no bubble in real estate – circa 2006-07.

#74 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 10:03 pm

#58 Freedom free on 08.08.16 at 9:01 pm

#53 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 8:40 pm
Sorry Garth. I side with Warren Buffett, who said, when asked about holding cash,”cash is like oxygen, you always want plenty of it lying around”.

Also, I can completely remove myself from Home ownership, Oil, any asset, when I deem it appropriate. But then again, I have never had a problem buying anything of value when it is really really beaten down, nor have I ever had a problem taking my profits on any asset. I deal with assets in my life the same as I deal with any relationship I am in. There always comes a time when I just gotta let go, for my own well being. Life should always be a pleasure, not a burden. No exceptions. Freedom First, as always.

..

Here’s an idea. Let go of the blog and stop saying the same thing every day. Hell of a rut yer in.

FF007

It was once said that “repetition is the mother of all learning.” So grasshopper, have you learned the lesson or must I continue to repeat it over and over and over again until you fully comprehend it? I am doing this for your benefit of course…and all those whose desire enlightenment from a buddhist zen master like myself. Do not let this opportunity pass you by.

“It is better to dip your left foot in the cold ocean, while standing, then to walk naked before many foreign kings.”

A Yiddish Zen proverb.

#75 Observer on 08.08.16 at 10:04 pm

As far as the financial guys go, Trump’s toast. Big market rally in November

Take a look at the US national debt since 2008 and one wonders why a money man like Garth would want Hillary and more of the same in Nov

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States

Actually I think they both are wanting. — Garth

#76 Nemesis on 08.08.16 at 10:05 pm

“If he loses I serve ice cream for a day at the forks of the credit. ” – SM

#SmokingMan’sFirstDayOnTheJob…

https://youtu.be/48-WV9jJEwY

#77 Context on 08.08.16 at 10:08 pm

This bubble is a monster like no other in history as was looking at a few charts. There were very virtually just a handful of high rise condos during the 1970’s and during the 1980’s a bit more as townhouse projects were the thing to construct. The birth of the condo apartments in the sky took off during the 1990’s to 2016 and they are still being constructed. The charting of this goes beyond the pale like a stock on fire. Thus we have created density many fold per block which destroyed parking lots and neighborhoods and we are at the point of no return.

#78 Life among the Stars on 08.08.16 at 10:09 pm

#59 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 9:13 pm

#55 Nelley on 08.08.16 at 8:54 pm
Yup-Trump is a lunatic-he wants to massively cut income taxes and simplify the tax code-sounds crazy to me and Garth.

He just announced a tax increase from his previous position. Lunatic. — Garth
……

Shit you learn on this pathetic blog… Finally the correct spelling for Lunatic. I always went with loonatic, loon = moon. Flowed by wolf cry..

Well my book is off to editing. She’s PhD in bio science, loves Science fiction. She’s edited and written medical journals so I don’t think we will have spelling or Grammer issues.

The question? Will she survive the material. It’s out there…

Why would you correct the grammar??.. Won’t that kill the authenticity….. Don’t want to kill the alien vibe

Or use the Hemingway editor…
http://www.hemingwayapp.com/

#79 ed on 08.08.16 at 10:10 pm

It usually takes a few posts before the crazies, the flat-earthers come out from under their rocks. Today there was no buffer; it started with the first post. Just when did nurse Ratched start allowing patients access to the internet? I think it was a bad decision.

#80 Ole Doberman on 08.08.16 at 10:12 pm

Garth those aren’t the real stats. On the other hand John Williams from JSmineset is a professional statition – who isn’t afraid to tell it like it is:

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The latest from John Williams’ http://www.shadowstats.com
– Just a Week into Headline 1.2% Second-Quarter GDP Growth, New Trade and Construction Spending Details Promise a Downside Revision
– Trade Deficit Widened and Deepened in Revision, Worst Since 2007
– With Quarterly and Annual Growth Collapsing Anew, Real Construction Spending Growth Was Weakest Since 2011 Series Trough
– Ten Years after its June 2006 Pre-Recession Peak, Real Construction Spending Remained Down 26% (-26%) from Recovering that Benchmark Level
– Month-to-Month Unemployment Data Remained Meaningless and Nonsensical, Heavily Skewed by Inconsistent and Not-Comparable Seasonal Adjustments
– Though Heavily Bloated by Seasonal-Factor Distortions and Add-Factors, Annual Payroll Growth Effectively Held at a 29-Month Low
– July 2016 Unemployment: U.3 Held at 4.9%, U.6 Notched Higher to 9.7% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rate Rose to 23.0%
– Annual M3 Growth Eased to 4.1% in July 2016, from 4.5% in June, While the Monetary Base Firmed Slightly
“No. 824: July Labor Conditions and M3, June Trade Deficit and Construction Spending”
http://www.shadowstats.com

#81 Victor Y on 08.08.16 at 10:12 pm

We get it. Nothing is wrong with the central banks and the grand scale of economy. That is the way it has been working for thousands years. Why would we think it would be any other way to work. Hilary or Trump, doesn’t really matter in the long run. The system would always evolve regardless. Sucks to play ideal and blame others. Thanks to your blog sincerely.

#82 45north on 08.08.16 at 10:19 pm

Moral: the world is not ending. Unless, of course, you live in Vancouver.

yesterday two people linked to a Ross Kay interview ( starting at the 21 minute mark ):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdfFACK47Xo

He says Vancouver real estate is headed for a catastrophe! It’s already down by 10% in July 2016. Listening to him, I’d say it’ll be down 40% by July 2017. He was asked to compare the downturn in Toronto during the 1990’s to Vancouver today. Toronto declined 10% over 10 years. This loss was covered by people simply paying down their mortgages – after 10 years they had enough equity to move up – the housing market paused but then was able to move up. In contrast Vancouver there is no way. If Vancouver housing loses only 20% then the loss of equity can not be made up by people paying down their mortgages. He thinks the loss will be much greater.

This is a catastrophe! The BC middle class is about to be wiped out.

#83 SWL1976 on 08.08.16 at 10:19 pm

Monkey see monkey do.

If governments can’t be held responsible for paying off their debts then why should any hipster with skinny jeans, a beard and an over priced sh#t shack worry about paying off theirs.

Seriously though, it’s only a matter of time before the printing press for the American dream runs out of steam. Perhaps the meteoric rise of a lunatic demagogue is just one tell tale sign that Joe and Jill six pack are beginning realize just what a farce this whole charade has become.

The future is full of uncertainty, with one exception. The only real answer any of these so called expert central bankers have is to print their way to infinity… History is littered with proof of how this scene ends

Of course hind sight will be always 20/20

#84 Trey on 08.08.16 at 10:19 pm

Garth would you recommend health care sector in the US, even with all the unfunded liabilities?

#85 Life among the Stars on 08.08.16 at 10:20 pm

#63 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 9:31 pm

Garth let’s put something on the Nov 18 election. A bet..

If Trump Wins you write my book forward. You can write what ever the hell you want.

If he loses I serve ice cream for a day at the forks of the credit. Where all the snivelling Man hating femanazis, lefty loons, teachers all the lower forms of life can come in and ridicule me all day long.

What do you think dogs?

You have to be his butler… natch

#86 Cory on 08.08.16 at 10:24 pm

“After trillions spent, there’s no way these dudes are going to blow it now. ”

Exactly!!

#87 mouldy in YVR on 08.08.16 at 10:27 pm

“All in on BC real estate”!!

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/family-finance/couple-has-gone-all-in-on-b-c-real-estate-but-a-secure-retirement-will-mean-getting-out-at-the-right-time

S.P.E.C.U.L.A.T.O.R.S. come in all shapes and sizes ……Garth has been warning us for years about putting all our eggs in one basket….I would suspect the number of speculators is legion in YVR…….. ……….These ones got their head start with $400,000 from the B.O.M. and have just kept on truckin’……………..let’s just rebrand Vancouver as VANGAS.

Leonard says it best:

“The ponies run, the girls are young
The odds are there to beat
You win a while and then it’s done
Your little winning streak
And summoned now to deal
With your invincible defeat
You live your life as if it’s real
A thousand kisses deep” Leonard Cohen

#88 Bottoms_Up on 08.08.16 at 10:36 pm

#43 acdel on 08.08.16 at 7:58 pm
————————————
The big picture is that countries are not individuals. A country doesn’t have to pay down it’s debts, it only needs to service them, and to be sure that those costs are reasonable.

Also, a country’s debt needs to be considered alongside it’s GDP and growth rate….

#89 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 10:41 pm

#79 Life among the Stars on 08.08.16 at 10:20 pm
#63 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 9:31 pm

Garth let’s put something on the Nov 18 election. A bet..

If Trump Wins you write my book forward. You can write what ever the hell you want.

If he loses I serve ice cream for a day at the forks of the credit. Where all the snivelling Man hating femanazis, lefty loons, teachers all the lower forms of life can come in and ridicule me all day long.

What do you think dogs?

You have to be his butler… natch
…….

I’m so sure I’m right I would agree clean toilets and shine shoes. Garths not an idiot. Notice he didn’t take the bet…

Mabey I’ll ask uncle Trump to write the forward.. Or Cuz Milo.

#90 Wile albertan gonads on 08.08.16 at 10:46 pm

#59 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 9:13 pm
#55 Nelley on 08.08.16 at 8:54 pm
Yup-Trump is a lunatic-he wants to massively cut income taxes and simplify the tax code-sounds crazy to me and Garth.

He just announced a tax increase from his previous position. Lunatic. — Garth
……

Shit you learn on this pathetic blog… Finally the correct spelling for Lunatic. I always went with loonatic, loon = moon. Flowed by wolf cry..

Well my book is off to editing. She’s PhD in bio science, loves Science fiction. She’s edited and written medical journals so I don’t think we will have spelling or Grammer issues.

The question? Will she survive the material. It’s out there…


Smoker dude proving minimum wage slave labour to a bio PhD who had wanted to save the world at one time. Well I guess that’s it canukstan is toast. PhD editing an aliens life story. Will it even make it into the dollar bin!

Well anyways. When do we get see this hiltious romp of a crazy assed drinken alien adventure?? Soon?

#91 not 1st on 08.08.16 at 10:47 pm

Garth is way overblowing Canada`s economic positions. Yes Vancouver and Toronto are nutso places, but the rest of the country is on more sane footing.

Commodities have no where to go but up and we are linked up with the most voracious economies in the world. We will be fine.

On top of that, we are the ONLY free market capitalist country left in the world and we will be the recipient of world wide capital influx because of it. We just need to channel it away from housing.

#92 WhattsUpp on 08.08.16 at 10:47 pm

Bay St up 13; Wall up 6:
“While the Canadian economy slumps, the US continues to move ahead with over 500,000 new jobs created in the last two months.”

Why this mismatch? If maple can this sweet in a slump, can you emagine if things change for the better a bit!

#93 Joe Schmoe on 08.08.16 at 10:48 pm

Cash lying around can be in the form of available credit.

It doesn’t have to be for a boat or granite.

You can likely leverage 25% of your liquid net worth. I bullied RBC into an ~30% LOC based on our investment portfolio at prime. Call it an “operating line”. “I plan on day trading”.

If you are investing x$ per month or whatever your plan is, you can always lump first, and then just pay down the debt.

This is just the RRSP loan gambit without waiting for the tax return.

Kicking myself for not pushing some debt in this spring. waffled on paying the crappy house off too long. Now spending money on renos. ick.

Meh, I guess I will do it Sept instead.

#94 Sideshow Rob on 08.08.16 at 10:53 pm

I wouldn’t count on Hillary winning. She is very ill. She may not be around for election day. Not joking. She has had seizures, cancer and feinting spells in the past few months

#95 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 10:56 pm

88 Bottoms_Up on 08.08.16 at 10:36 pm
#43 acdel on 08.08.16 at 7:58 pm
————————————
The big picture is that countries are not individuals. A country doesn’t have to pay down it’s debts, it only needs to service them, and to be sure that those costs are reasonable.

Also, a country’s debt needs to be considered alongside it’s GDP and growth rate….
…..

Wisdom from a bonifide climate change warrior..

Why did the council on Nictonite pick me to save this world.. Deal with these low IQs.

I could have landed a gig on zeelickula. But no I’m fking stuck here with a phyco Scottish chic who I fell in love with… Talk about shit luck.

Sucks to be me. The shit that happens on zeelickula. Can’t repeat here…

#96 RayofLight on 08.08.16 at 10:56 pm

There are over 350 Million people in the US, and Hillary and Donald is what floated to the top for presidential elections?

#97 Quebec is Great on 08.08.16 at 11:01 pm

HELOCS
Is there any stats on Mom & Pop HELOC’s? If RE prices drop by 30% are any HELOCS holders in danger of losing their house (along with their sons/daughters house that the HELOCS went toward)? Double whammy if happens in a significant number would be like a nightmare. The desolation would be almost impossible to get the mind around.
Anyways just curious what rules apply to underwater helocs.

#98 MF on 08.08.16 at 11:05 pm

So the basic premise of this pathetic blog is that a one-asset strategy is dangerous and balance is preferred. Now we are to ignore the fact that this one asset is overvalued because of central bank policies and believe these dudes have done something useful and positive?
You said it yourself. After spending trillions, the bankers are not going to blow it. The reason is that they can’t. They are out of ammo and everyone knows it.

What about this unending “stimulus”. It looks like we are totally dependent on it. What happens when it is removed?

Low growth -> reduce rates–> drive asset bubbles–>spend more (go further in debt)-> low growth–repeat.

How much stimulus is too much? Do they actually think that if the first ten rounds of stimulus did nothing, the 11 round will kick start everything? It won’t.

As for Trump. I remember these “odds” were that Britain would fall into line and vote to stay in the failure that is the EU.

MF

#99 ww1 on 08.08.16 at 11:06 pm

Watching all the recent posts predicting a Drumph victory, I’m reminded of this “guaranteed” Greater Fool blog post :

There will be a majority Conservative government on the morning of Tuesday, October 20th, led by a man most Canadians hate. So much for being a normal country.

Doomer and other old farts on this blog hate liberal thinking. They started blaming T2 for every thing wrong in their world a few days after the election. So I really expect they will be wrong about Drumph getting elected too.

For all our sakes, I really hope so.

#100 JP on 08.08.16 at 11:09 pm

US Fed hikes coming. US economy is starting to take off leaving the schittbots scratching their heads wondering how their master Peter gold Schill was wrong yet again, gold shills will make another excuse why the collapse didn’t happen and schiffbots will buy it. It’s all so predictable.

#101 Randy on 08.08.16 at 11:16 pm

A new Low… Can anyone set the bar lower than this Low Life Realtor ?

B.C. realtors give widowed dad condolence card — with offer to sell house

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/b-c-realtors-give-widowed-dad-condolence-card-with-offer-to-sell-house-1.3020537?hootPostID=70d75a40a9207e6434bcfef76a72173d

#102 Randy on 08.08.16 at 11:17 pm

Hillary is in my Death Pool for 2016…Think I’m gonna win.

#103 Aggregator on 08.08.16 at 11:22 pm

#97 Quebec is Great –  If RE prices drop by 30% are any HELOCS holders in danger of losing their house

What 99% of homewoners with a mortgages don't understand.

Canadian Bankers Association: Comparing Mortgage Security

When you borrow money to buy or refinance a home, you agree to use your home as security. This means that if you don’t pay as promised or honour the terms of your mortgage loan, your lender can take legal action against your home and, among other things, sell it to get its money back.  Your lender will register this agreement as a “charge” (or “hypothec” in Quebec) against your property at the land registry office to indicate that you have granted this security.

#104 LP on 08.08.16 at 11:28 pm

#44 BOOM! on 08.08.16 at 8:01 pm

Where did Flopper Flee??? calling Flopper…*********

He’s probably out of range…gone camping, remember?

#105 Mark on 08.08.16 at 11:33 pm

“You can likely leverage 25% of your liquid net worth. I bullied RBC into an ~30% LOC based on our investment portfolio at prime. Call it an “operating line”. “I plan on day trading”.”

Bullied? That’s the sort of credit bankers want to give out all day long. Secured with collateral that they can seize very easily and sell. They’d much rather be doing that, loaning money to speculators, than dealing with RE and the mess it entails when they have to foreclose.

The question is, did they give you a good rate or not? I borrow to invest, and I’m paying on the order of 1.5%/annum right now. If you’re paying “Prime” (or worse!), you’re getting ripped off.

#106 Doug on 08.08.16 at 11:38 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-08/something-wrong-hillary-bizarre-behavior-seizure-allegations-raise-doubts-about-her-

#107 Mark on 08.08.16 at 11:40 pm

“If RE prices drop by 30% are any HELOCS holders in danger of losing their house (along with their sons/daughters house that the HELOCS went toward)? Double whammy if happens in a significant number would be like a nightmare. The desolation would be almost impossible to get the mind around.
Anyways just curious what rules apply to underwater helocs.”

HELOCs are almost always written as overnight “demand” loans. The bank can demand repayment, in full, at literally any time without giving you a reason. If they suspect the collateral (ie: the house pledged) is not worth the value of the loan, a first order step the bank will take is to increase the applicable interest rate to reflect the fact that the loan is increasingly unsecured. Available credit will tighten accordingly, and many HELOCs in a widespread house price decline situation will go into deposit-only mode.

Ultimately, yes, some will lose homes, although its really questionable whether it was really “their” home if they decided to accept funds from the bank in exchange for a loan.

Remember, there’s two sides to the borrowing/lending arrangement. The bank, and the borrower. Each are trying to accomplish a directly opposite goal. The bank wants to maximize its return on investment. The borrower borrows because the borrower feels that money will depreciate faster than the assets they are buying.

Of course, if history (and the TSX’s ~35% market capitalization allocation) is any indication, the banks tend to come out ahead. Wasn’t there some famous biblical person who said, “the borrower is servant to the lender”?

#108 Debt musical chairs on 08.09.16 at 12:23 am

Can anyone explain to me how the trillions in debt does not matter? I am not a gold licker but you cannot borrow forever. It’s smoke and mirrors that the fed buys government debt.
So yes economy expands, inflation comes and yet we still owe all this money.
Then Garth the same logic will apply to housing, all this borrowing does not matter because economy expands wages increase inflation wipes out household debt.

Admit it Garth the real reason the stock market is increasing is because interest rates are so low. Corporate earnings have decrease for the second and third straight quarter, so the economy is not expanding into corporate earnings.
Smoke and mirrors

#109 Dave on 08.09.16 at 12:24 am

This bull market will be over in 2017. I promise.

#110 paulo on 08.09.16 at 12:24 am

interesting times to be sure just some thoughts on what comes in the next 2 Q’s

The Donald will be fired before he gets hired.
The US economy will continue to steam along 1.8 to 2.4 GDP annualized
Oil range bound US $ 10/brl + or Minus $45 base line
North American Markets will be stable
Real-estate in Canada major correction and reality check, add on danger that the bank of mom also goes down with the kids
otherwise a mild recession in Canada
look for lots of new taxes and other big government moves
so enjoy the summer, grab a ice cream its going to be a long cold winter when it gets here

#111 Vangrrl on 08.09.16 at 12:43 am

This made me laugh.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/stephen-punwasi/canadian-housing-crash_b_11349292.html

#112 Freedom First on 08.09.16 at 12:51 am

#74 Freedom First

You’re #1 Freedom First #74! I am a Fan!

#113 wasabi on 08.09.16 at 12:56 am

2016 fall vancouver real estate headlines

-after a slight cooling off period through the summer, prices continued to increase in september. declining sales in august, with the announcement of a 15% foreign buyers tax end of july put the market into a 5%-10% dip depending on your area. People that bought in august have already seen a 5-10% gain coming into october.

-our listings are still way down
-there is too much depend and net in migration
-the bank of canada announced a .25 % key interest rate cut in september putting further pressure on upward prices
-rents are astronomical
-vacancy rates are at all time a all time low
-bc continutes to be one of the most desirable places to live in in the world
-dollar exchange allowing foreigners to still see value in canadian real estate
-baby boomers are moving to rental properties to fund their retirement because the banks don’t pay anything
-natural land restrictions
-world interest rates at all time lows

sorry to break the news but this train won’t be stopped for a long ,long time!

#114 joblo on 08.09.16 at 12:56 am

Canada, USA and EU are in decay, heading towards Totalitarianism. If the Central Banks don’t already control everything its not far off. Yeah singing from the same song sheet, bubble after bubble after bubble.
What’s next the Green Bubble?
We need productive assets to invest in.

#115 US debt on 08.09.16 at 1:26 am

March 2017 is when the debt ceiling [email protected]# show is likely to happen again.

The reason why the markets have done well with the D’s is obvious when looking at the debt graph:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States

There is no way that this is sustainable without some consequences or consequential events.

Its going to be Trump, or the debt ceiling fiasco happening every few years until something gives.

“The medicine may be bitter, but the alternative could be much worst.”

#116 Former Fool on 08.09.16 at 2:01 am

Garth, huge fan here, your blog has helped me tremendously! Thank you!

But preferred shares are up 18%? Don’t know where you are getting that data point from.

XPF = +4.37% YTD
CPD = +1.94% YTD

https://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239851/ishares-sptsx-north-american-preferred-stock-index-etf-cadhedged-fund

https://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239836/ishares-sptsx-canadian-preferred-share-index-fund

Are you referring % gain referenced to the lowest 2016 prices? I could see 18% based on that. XPF worked out to 16%, plus dividends thus far. Didn’t do the math on CPD.

Keep up the good work Garth.

#117 Damifino on 08.09.16 at 2:07 am

#91 not 1st

On top of that, we are the ONLY free market capitalist country left in the world and we will be the recipient of world wide capital influx because of it.
—————————————-

Come on.

We can’t even get our inter-provincial trade sorted out.

#118 Damifino on 08.09.16 at 2:11 am

#96 RayofLight

“There are over 350 Million people in the US, and Hillary and Donald is what floated to the top for presidential elections?”
————————————

It tells you what a lousy job it really is.

#119 ulsterman on 08.09.16 at 2:11 am

Joe 2.0: Can you give more info on the Sunshine Coast golf course issue. This is an anonymous blog – please give specifics. I think this is an important issue but we are unable to raise it on multiple forums if we don’t know more.

#120 Roland on 08.09.16 at 2:40 am

Garth,

There were a lot of different approaches that could have been taken during the GFC. Having central banks backstop the world’s speculators was the wrong choice.

That brings me to my main point: political risk.

I think that you’re observant enough to realize that a lot of people are coming to really hate the economy’s guts.

We can all have a brief chuckle when we insult those people, but as a matter of fact the people who hate the economy’s guts are responding in a rational way to recent changes in their world.

It ties in to my first point, about the response to the GFC. The central banks of the world committed themselves to reflation. But there was no redistriubtion along with that reflation.

The reflationary bias of the world’s central monetary authorities was fantastic for a small number of people. But a lot of other people got hurt. You can point to unemployment figures in the USA, but even the heavily massaged official stats can’t hide the fact the median worker makes less money.

People hate the economy because the economy hates them. Mr. Market is making people mad. So don’t be surprised when people drag Mr. Market to the curbside, and kick all the chiclets out of his mouth.

Political risk. Take it to the bank.

#121 Notanidiot on 08.09.16 at 2:48 am

Garth was 100% wrong about Brexit.

I’m sure he’s right about Trump though.

#122 Trump, Cdn Markets Fine...but for how long? on 08.09.16 at 3:11 am

Love today’s fear mongering blog about vested interests/outright liars that post here regularly.

2016 Canadian GDP/Jobs performance is a bad reality.

If we are headed for recession, keep pointing/updating us about what the investment mix ought to be. Cdn markets are fine for now, but I question what their performance will be like in a job loss recession.

And changing your recommendations in the near future about the mix of investments is a good thing since a volatile economy will demand this (i.e., do not be offended by posters that requote you from the past on any perceived mistake – they are people that envy your wit and presence of mind).

__________________________________________

As for the Trump advocates, the only way he gets elected in November is if there is a coups d’état on his behalf in the USA or another Islamic radical inspired 9/11 happens…if so,

then civilization had a good run…

#123 Realtors are such a classy bunch on 08.09.16 at 3:56 am

Vancouver-Area Realtors Come Calling 3 Weeks After Man’s Wife Dies

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/08/08/vancouver-realtors-wife-dead_n_11396104.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-british-columbia&ir=Canada+British+Columbia

#124 drydock on 08.09.16 at 5:27 am

#63 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 9:31 pm

Garth let’s put something on the Nov 18 election. A bet..

If Trump Wins you write my book forward. You can write what ever the hell you want.

If he loses I serve ice cream for a day at the forks of the credit. Where all the snivelling Man hating femanazis, lefty loons, teachers all the lower forms of life can come in and ridicule me all day long.

What do you think dogs?

01010101010101010101010101010101

I’m in.

#125 Ace Goodheart on 08.09.16 at 6:57 am

Trump’s finished. His “spat” with that Gold Star family sealed his fate. Americans are all about their military and you can’t treat a deceased war hero’s parents like that.

RE: Govt borrowing: yes, in the USA, which is a huge monster of an economy, runaway government debt that will never be paid back, is probably OK.

We are in Canada. We do not have the world’s most powerful military. We are not a global superpower. We are a tiny little backwater country, containing mostly empty space, with small populated areas mostly clustered around our borders with the USA.

We have a serious government debt problem, particularly Provincial debt. This will cause inflation and currency devaluation.

#126 AfterTheHouseSold on 08.09.16 at 7:26 am

More manufacturing jobs on the line here in Ontario. Auto negotiations up to bat this week.

“The challenges today are much different. The challenges today are profitable companies making global decisions that, candidly, don’t include Canada.”

” … Canadian plants have to be able to compete globally.” ” … we should be comparing ourselves to China, India, Mexico … ”

Other concerns stated included electricity costs, environmental regulations, international trade agreements and government support.

The most vulnerable plants are GM Oshawa whose existing contracts expire in 2017 and 2019. This article is a good over view of the Canadian auto industry.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/canadian-auto-industry-faces-biggest-existential-threat-since-2009-as-labour-talks-begin

#127 Zen Headspace on 08.09.16 at 7:40 am

“Markets and portfolios survived both [the commodity crash and Brexit] and have gone on to reward those who jumped in, or held on and ignored the volatility.”
——————————————————————–If you want to choose to be financially successful, you have to be able to handle emotions like fear or anxiousness. It is imperative that you learn to control these emotions, because when they are out of control, they may conspire to ruin your financial life.

Controlling emotions is difficult because it’s hard to tell what is an emotion and what is supposed to be controlling it. When you experience fear, it takes you over. What is supposed to be controlling the fear is consumed by it. You can’t just make it stop, because you are afraid. You are fear. When you notice that you are fear, then you are no longer fear. You are something separate, safe, and you have some control.

Emotions play a huge role in the way people manage their money. Financially secure people demonstrate unusual control over a key emotion: short-term impulses. They are future oriented and have a strong propensity to plan. It’s hard to deny yourself immediate pleasure for the prospect of bigger gains down the road. But that ability is critical to financial security — and also to success in the stock market.

Most amateurs (i.e., regular, everyday retail investors) have a hard time accepting market volatility as being a normal circumstance. This invariably leads them to an emotional reanalysis of their situation. Successful investors know that they must consistently apply the basic fundamental investing strategies (diversification and balance), as well as practicing emotional discipline.

Lately it seems like traders and investors have become, more or less, the same people. External distractions are influencing investors to lose patience and abandon their long-term strategies. While at times, there might be a legitimate need to liquidate certain positions, many investors who removed their money from the market in an emotional panic took a major loss. Those people didn’t grasp that being an investor means controlling your fear, sticking with your plan, and looking at the long-term.

Do not fear Trump. Do not fear Trudeau. Do not fear, period. Stay the course. Do not get distracted by the noise. Ignore the media hype. Have patience.

#128 The Wet Coast on 08.09.16 at 7:45 am

113 Wasabi

Sorry Mr Realtor dude. The very popular 15% tax was only the opening salvo. Christie has staked her political carrer on it. Count on it going much higher if it needs to. My neighbors are saying they are having a huge amount of trouble getting money out if China. In the middle of this the CRA arrives and starts to audit folks with residential ties and working off shore. Rock and a hard place.

#129 CJBob on 08.09.16 at 8:18 am

Even a lowly bond ETF has gained 3% since the year began (compared with a six-month GIC is yielding 0.35%
____________
Your analysis is good but you always cherry pick your stats. The Tangerine 6 month GIC is 0.5% right now and I’m sure I could do better than that if I looked around, 1 year is 1.4% and 18 months at 1.55%. I’m not sayin’ this is the place to be, just trying to balance the argument.

Also when I check BXF and CBO ETF Bond Funds they aren’t up anywhere near 3% this year. Picking the top bond fund and looking backwards is another example of cherry picking stats (and again I agree with your basic argument).

The rate I quoted is at the major banks, not the online fruit people. And the difference of 15 basis points is negligible. — Garth

#130 TurnerNation on 08.09.16 at 8:20 am

Worry closer to home.

I am the victim now?

From Freedom First department: with always the threat of losing 50% of my assets and 50% of my income -in short all my hard work over decades, and early retirement – the idea of marriage and kids and potentially a break up loses its lustre daily. I get it, as a “wasp” male I am the enemy of this state. My opinions and values and hard work are not needed. No selfies will be taken with my ilk.

Last three girls I have met and dated have been here 5-10yrs from Ukraine, Russia and S. America. Educated (eg. Masters, CPA). So refreshing and real and at age 27-30 they have way more street smarts, practicality and maturity than any north American I’ve met – even 30-somethings.

Sincerely, your local “wasp oppressor”,

M40ON

“I wish they all could be California…” sang the BBs.
Not any more.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.16 at 8:30 am

@#63 Smoking man
“If he loses I serve ice cream for a day at the forks of the credit. ”
*******************************************

You smoke .
Any sane employer doesnt hire smokers.
Smokers take far more “work breaks” to huff on a nicotine stick, especially them things are busy or stressful. Smokers take longer work breaks than non smokers. Bumming cigarettes or lights from other smokers or any other crack head tweaking outside….
Smokers are sick more often than non smokers.
Smokers stink.
Smokers treat the entire world as their ash tray and garbage can ( what IS it about empty cigarette packages anyway? A resonably intelligent smoker,oxymoron? will treat an empty package of cigarettes like a spent plutonium rod and drop it where it is. Someone elses’ livingroom table, someones car dashboard, someones front deck, pristene park picnic tables …..anywhere…..Empty cigarette packages NEVER, EVER seem to make it to the place that they belong a f**king garbage can.
Hence smokers are slobs and slobs are lazy and no one wants to hire lazy , stinky, slobs……..
Quit smoking or hurry up and die.
The rest of the planet will be a much cleaner, happy place for it.

#132 fancy_pants on 08.09.16 at 8:32 am

OK, I have a confession to make… I bought a dozen tin foil hats and sent them to Garth for his next birthday party. Of course I held one back for myself and now I have a strong suspicion he has been using them pre-celebration (don’t ask me how I know this) so I reread the user manual again. shite. I immediately noticed they reveal in small print on the inside lip: “in greenspan we trust”. damn. they are old stock and will likely no longer work as advertised. Again, don’t ask me how I know this but they will give one feelings of grandeur and pink hues to your field of vision.

Garth, please toss these ones, I will send you new ones, just picked them up this week off the darknet. Not sure why the new ones are labelled .. “Shalom, bern in yell” but wow, these ones really work! I briefly strapped one on in the shower this morning and the toes were tingling!

Now I know they will be tempting to use before your birthday but please refrain until party day. What is totally awesome with these is they can even light your candles for you. Oh, and by the way, if these new hats give you or your guests urges to lick bullion just ignore that (don’t ask me how I know this), but I did confirm with the instruction manual that this is a common side effect.

cheers, fancy

#133 MSM-Free Zone on 08.09.16 at 8:44 am

Just when you thought reALTurds® couldn’t sink any lower:

“….B.C. realtors give widowed dad condolence card — with offer to sell house……”

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/b-c-realtors-give-widowed-dad-condolence-card-with-offer-to-sell-house-1.3020537

This is a non-story, a media creation. Move on people. — Garth

#134 Ace Goodheart on 08.09.16 at 8:45 am

RE: #129 CJBob:

“Your analysis is good but you always cherry pick your stats. The Tangerine 6 month GIC is 0.5% right now and I’m sure I could do better than that if I looked around, 1 year is 1.4% and 18 months at 1.55%. I’m not sayin’ this is the place to be, just trying to balance the argument. ”

He’s right about GICs. You can do better than a GIC with the worst performing ETF, or any blue chip dividend paying stock, and the tax consequences are less (capital gains are only taxed on 1/2 of the gain and dividends have a tax credit). Income off a GIC is taxed at your full marginal rate.

GICs don’t make a lot of sense. If you have say $10,000 to invest, and you are thinking of either a GIC that pays 0.5% or a portfolio, consider that if you split your $10,000 up into pockets of $500 and purchase across the spectrum of, say the TSX, you are going to do better than 0.5%. Same if you just purchase 6 focussed ETFs that track various market segments. You will always do better than 0.5%.

Right now with my investments, for example I have a broad based portfolio that is across all the spectrums and is in two countries (Canada and USA). I have two “dogs” that are hurting me right now, a US oil company and a Canadian Reit. But the loss there averages out with the gains elsewhere and I come out ahead.

You just have to diversify and be broad based. Don’t put all the eggs in one basket, and you are fine. No one needs to settle for a 0.5% return.

#135 Ret on 08.09.16 at 8:53 am

#123 “Vancouver-Area Realtors Come Calling 3 Weeks After Man’s Wife Dies”

This is not news. They pay finders fees to any neighbour, relative, legal secretary etc., if they manage to secure a listing. Maybe the lawyers are in on it too.

We had a realtor on our porch a few weeks after my wife’s last parent died. My wife was an executor. He claimed that he had heard about her mother’s passing from, “a friend of a friend.”

Yeah, right. Rather strange that he didn’t pay a visit to the other siblings.

#136 Ret on 08.09.16 at 9:05 am

Oh, oh. The big three auto workers are starting negotiations in Ontario. How much will this cost Ontario taxpayers?

#137 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.09.16 at 9:09 am

@66 WHOOOOAAAAAAA Nelley:

Trump just jumped the shark with his Reagan inspired mainstream Republican trickle down non- sense.

His common man “base” might see thru it.

#138 AisA on 08.09.16 at 9:12 am

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.16 at 8:30 am

The irony of that post is that you just sound like you really need a cigarette :-)

#139 salonist on 08.09.16 at 9:18 am

sm…first coding job…..inside story
as was posted on reddit

“I was in a job interview today when the manager handed me his laptop and said…

“I want you to try and sell this to me.”

So I put it under my arm, walked out of the building and went home.

Eventually he called my mobile and said, “Bring it back here right now!”

I said, “$200 and it’s yours.”

#140 Context on 08.09.16 at 9:35 am

A brand new 6,000 sq. ft. beauty in the Caledon Park Estates near Hwy. 9 and Hwy. 50 has been listed for $1.7 million. I guess the proud owner didn’t cut the mustard as its under power of sale. Nice looking mansion. Probably a builder who went down on a condo project in the city.

#141 chopstix on 08.09.16 at 10:02 am

ah, the parasitic cockroach-like realtors of the lower mainland just keep going lower….the latest
”Vancouver-Area Realtors Come Calling 3 Weeks After Man’s Wife Dies”
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/08/08/vancouver-realtors-wife-dead_n_11396104.html

#142 Context on 08.09.16 at 10:27 am

There are others under power of sale. There is the dream home on Mississauga Road with 6190 sq. ft. for $3.5 million just a bit NW of Port Credit. The French Chateau in Lorne Park at 10,000 sq. ft. is inviting for $5 million. Lawrence Park south has one for $3.9 million with 5,000 sq. ft., but the property taxes on the above are too high. Which to buy? I fancy the one in Caledon with the four car garage and the separate entrance to an office with the much lower property taxes. There is something unique that caught my eye on the second floor. A self-contained one bedroom apartment for the maid, nanny, mother in law, or even the mistress. It might take an offer at $1.3 million as its a beauty.

#143 The Spectre on 08.09.16 at 10:28 am

The economic policies of the last decades might have been working fine for the 1%ers. Unfortunately, for all the other 99%ers, that is not true.

McKinsey Study Shows 81% of US Worse off Than in 2005, France 63%, Italy 97%

As is typically the case, the article failed to discuss why.

The answer is the monetary policies of central banks benefit the wealthy and those with first access to money at the expense of everyone else.

#144 nowayjose on 08.09.16 at 10:29 am

“The last thing you should be doing these days is sitting on cash, buying gold, loading up on GICs or visiting doomer web sites (except this one, naturally). ”

Garth you always seems to gloat about recent things that have gone up. What people need to know is what will go up in the future…not what has gone up in the past. Stock analysts do this on TV all the time…..big buy recommendation on stocks that have already skyrocketed….

On a gloomier note for you and just to ensure that this blog remains fair and balanced, a major player with a lot of street cred, totally disagrees with the quoted text from you above….

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/marc-faber-sp-is-set-to-crash-50-giving-back-5-years-of-gains.html

How do you recommend hedging against this upcoming 50% loss

Marc Faber is a gold-pumping joke. — Garth

#145 Rabbit One on 08.09.16 at 10:34 am

># 119 Ulsterman

This is not in Sunshine coast, but :

I know someone who was very close to the Golf course sale in Vancouver Island two years ago.

While Canadian company was in process of Due Diligence (taking more than six month) on purchase offer, two Chinese companies offer $10M more plus range.

Seller’s condition for sale was to retain all the current employees.

Counter offer was to hire hundreds of new employees of their choice. (you know from where)

Sellers was not desperate, so didn’t take those offers.
True story.

#146 CJBob on 08.09.16 at 10:37 am

#134 Ace Goodheart on 08.09.16 at 8:45 am

He’s right about GICs. You can do better than a GIC with the worst performing ETF, or any blue chip dividend paying stock
____________________
Hmmm, the 60/40 split Garth recommends has 40% in ‘safe’ stuff so you really can’t compare a GIC to equities. Yes equities generally beat GIC’s, that’s investing 101.

My point was when you compare a GIC to a bond ETF the numbers are a lot closer than Garth was making it appear. Show me a Bond ETF that has done better than the 1.4% GIC rate for 1 year. ??? BXF and CBO are right around that amount. You can cherry pick one that contains more risk that is doing well now, but will it do as well in the next year if US rates rise?

I’ve been here for about a year and my 60% using ETF’s in equities is clear, I’ve yet to see how the remaining 40% shouldn’t include SOME GIC’s. Lots of people disagree, but no one’s been able to explain why not yet.

A laddered set of GIC’s of 5 year term have been returning 2.4% which compares favourably to bond funds and I’m talking about stuff inside an RRSP so taxes aren’t a factor.

Seriously? Bond ETFs have beat the pants off GICs for absolute returns, and doubled that for tax-efficient returns. Preferreds are giving 5%+ in tax-reduced dividend income. There is zero excuse for holding GICs in this environment of low rates, rising inflation and punitive, unless you are insanely risk-averse. — Garth

#147 Setting the Record Straight on 08.09.16 at 10:41 am

@#91
Perhaps there is a disconnect between free market economy and channeling investment ?

#148 nowayjose on 08.09.16 at 10:43 am

#57 Mark M. on 08.08.16 at 9:00 pm
“Commodity rebound.” — Garth

Gold?

That’s funny. Energy = 24%, Financials = 36%, Gold = 1%. — Garth”

Garth, there you go again….more recency bias….who’s to say gold won’t go up 40% in the next year?

Calling for Trump in a landside……the world needs this guy noew. To paraphrase the great Patches O’Houlihan of Dodgeball fame…

“What are the 5 D’s…dodge, duck, dip, dive and Donald!
……go ya crazy b*stard go!”

The stats I gave were for market weightings. Pay attention. — Garth

#149 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 10:46 am

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.16 at 8:30 am
@#63 Smoking man
“If he loses I serve ice cream for a day at the forks of the credit. ”
*******************************************

You smoke .
Any sane employer doesnt hire smokers.
Smokers take far more “work breaks” to huff on a nicotine stick, especially them things are busy or stressful. Smokers take longer work breaks than non smokers. Bumming cigarettes or lights from other smokers or any other crack head tweaking outside….
Smokers are sick more often than non smokers.
Smokers stink.
Smokers treat the entire world as their ash tray and garbage can ( what IS it about empty cigarette packages anyway? A resonably intelligent smoker,oxymoron? will treat an empty package of cigarettes like a spent plutonium rod and drop it where it is. Someone elses’ livingroom table, someones car dashboard, someones front deck, pristene park picnic tables …..anywhere…..Empty cigarette packages NEVER, EVER seem to make it to the place that they belong a f**king garbage can.
Hence smokers are slobs and slobs are lazy and no one wants to hire lazy , stinky, slobs……..
Quit smoking or hurry up and die.
The rest of the planet will be a much cleaner, happy place for it.
……………………..

Wow!!!! I wan’t some of that expresso you had this morning.

#150 Nelley on 08.09.16 at 10:49 am

#137Bytor-without those “common men” you look down on the USA would go right down the tubes-you cannot run an economy with nothing but Crooked Hillary’s base-Wall Street grifters, the welfare crowd, illegals and bloated government “employees”.

#151 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 10:54 am

She forgot to charge her batteries

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlxWckQbpug

#152 Victor V on 08.09.16 at 11:09 am

Does Trump get hurt because the Republican officials who designed the Iraq War he opposes, but Hillary voted for but now regrets, now seem to have endorsed her not him?

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/us/politics/national-security-gop-donald-trump.html?smid=fb-share&referer=

#153 James on 08.09.16 at 11:12 am

#95 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 10:56 pm

88 Bottoms_Up on 08.08.16 at 10:36 pm
#43 acdel on 08.08.16 at 7:58 pm
————————————
The big picture is that countries are not individuals. A country doesn’t have to pay down it’s debts, it only needs to service them, and to be sure that those costs are reasonable.

Also, a country’s debt needs to be considered alongside it’s GDP and growth rate….
…..

Wisdom from a bonifide climate change warrior..

Why did the council on Nictonite pick me to save this world.. Deal with these low IQs.

I could have landed a gig on zeelickula. But no I’m fking stuck here with a phyco Scottish chic who I fell in love with… Talk about shit luck.

Sucks to be me. The shit that happens on zeelickula. Can’t repeat here…
……………………………………………………………………..
Well now we know the truth about Trump he is a god dam alien just like Smoking Man. At least there may be another dog on the track for the GOP. Evan McMullin, a CIA veteran and chief policy director of the House Republican conference, announced Monday that he’s launching an independent presidential bid. Now McMullin is a shark and Trump is a guppie! At the very least he may take away or split the vote for poor Donald.

#154 James on 08.09.16 at 11:15 am

#149 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 10:46 am

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.16 at 8:30 am
@#63 Smoking man
“If he loses I serve ice cream for a day at the forks of the credit. ”
*******************************************

You smoke .
Any sane employer doesnt hire smokers.
Smokers take far more “work breaks” to huff on a nicotine stick, especially them things are busy or stressful. Smokers take longer work breaks than non smokers. Bumming cigarettes or lights from other smokers or any other crack head tweaking outside….
Smokers are sick more often than non smokers.
Smokers stink.
Smokers treat the entire world as their ash tray and garbage can ( what IS it about empty cigarette packages anyway? A resonably intelligent smoker,oxymoron? will treat an empty package of cigarettes like a spent plutonium rod and drop it where it is. Someone elses’ livingroom table, someones car dashboard, someones front deck, pristene park picnic tables …..anywhere…..Empty cigarette packages NEVER, EVER seem to make it to the place that they belong a f**king garbage can.
Hence smokers are slobs and slobs are lazy and no one wants to hire lazy , stinky, slobs……..
Quit smoking or hurry up and die.
The rest of the planet will be a much cleaner, happy place for it.
……………………..

Wow!!!! I wan’t some of that expresso you had this morning.
…………………………………………………………………..
Wow smoking must be so enjoyable, what are we missing?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=by4X5jPFNL0

#155 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 08.09.16 at 11:20 am

”And what about central banks? Far from being the manipulative villains that gold nuts hate, these guys have largely co-ordinated monetary policy around the world since the 2008-9 disaster, fighting the forces of deflation and waning consumer demand with cheap money and oodles of stimulus. The main reason 2010 did not end up looking like 1932 was monetary policy – and the fact central banks from Washington to Beijing, London and Ottawa were singing from the same music.” – Garth Turner

But really, is that such a good thing?

“I fear banking institutions more a threat to our civil liberties than standing armies” – Thomas Jefferson.

Have we learned to control our economy through monetary policy or have the banks become more sophisticated at being able to repeatedly shear the shepple?

What’s the biggest investment most make in a lifetime? Housing!

What segment of the economy has become a fundamental key component like never before? Credit! Remember when a line of credit was a business tool. Now most everyone has that noose around their neck

Why has housing become so expensive relative to wages?

Why are your mailboxes littered with credit offerings?

It’s absurd and unsustainable. It breaks government Band Aids and Bubble Gums it back together, kicking the can down the road for future generations to deal with.

Monetary policy? If we ran our household budgets like governments… well wait a minute…. most, it seems, do… sigh.

Why did 2008 happen anyway? Who was behind the failing? Where did all that money go?

You know the answers…

}:-(

#156 Grey Dog on 08.09.16 at 11:40 am

Ahhh, the things I learn as a fly on the wall at my husbands conferences. Chinese are smuggling diamonds into Canada, to get cash. If caught with diamonds either in China or Canada, immediate jail sentence.

#157 Context on 08.09.16 at 11:47 am

I feel sorry for Hillary Clinton because she is not well at all. I was just made privy to her medical report and wish her the best.

#158 Grey Dog on 08.09.16 at 11:48 am

Maybe I should change my name to fly on wall. A guy’s aunt has a career selling homes in Florida to Canadian snowbirds. Recently, she is fielding a lot of calls from Americans wanting to cash out of Florida and move to Canada. Now where would they go come wintertime?

By the way a quick glance at real estate office in Denver, home listings are comparable to Toronto.

#159 TnT on 08.09.16 at 11:51 am

#129 CJBob on 08.09.16 at 8:18 am

Skip the GIC and do a straight up HISA account at Alterna if your so risk adverse

High Interest Savings Account = 1.95%
TFSA = 1.95%

https://www.alternabank.ca/

#160 Capt. Serious on 08.09.16 at 12:01 pm

Trump can’t win unless he runs the table of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida. At best I can see him winning one of those (likely Ohio), but not all three. No Republican has won Pennsylvania in over three decades. He may also lose North Carolina given how many colored folks there despise him. He’s toast.

#161 Nelley on 08.09.16 at 12:13 pm

#153James-Evan McMullin-is he the guy that set up Crooked Hillary’s server?

#162 Context on 08.09.16 at 12:23 pm

Toronto has become the condo city lacking traditional housing types. This is pushing the buyers out of the city core areas in search of the traditional bungalow and related forms of housing. What a mess as there is indeed a shortage of traditional homes. I looked at the available inventory in Toronto which is at a crisis level and wouldn’t buy any of them. Its a great opportunity to list traditional in good condition for a quick sale and take the tax free dollars to invest wisely and rent for a few years.

#163 Say What? on 08.09.16 at 12:26 pm

“And what about central banks? Far from being the manipulative villains that gold nuts hate, these guys have largely co-ordinated monetary policy around the world since the 2008-9 disaster, fighting the forces of deflation and waning consumer demand with cheap money and oodles of stimulus.” – Garth

—————————————————–

You make these guys sound like superheroes saving the world. Maybe their actions will eventually result in something much worse than deflation. How long can the fiat currencies of the world withstand this kind of Ponzi-like manipulation? And there is going to be more of it.

Financial Rule No.7: Ignore anyone who uses the word ‘fiat’. — Garth

#164 @156 grey dog on 08.09.16 at 12:50 pm

Diamonds is for peasants.

Try “import over invoicing” for jewelry movement into China and cash into Hong Kong. Hear you can buy green painted rocks “emeralds” for $1 million.

That $1 Million won’t buy you a sfd in YVR. So double or triple order.

#165 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.09.16 at 1:08 pm

@150 Nelley- The point just wwhooooosssshed over your head like the Snowbirds at an airshow.

I’m for the common man my dear fellow. Alas, if they continue to vote for Trump after hearing his economic plan then they are voting against their own interests.

#166 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.09.16 at 1:09 pm

@157 Context-

If true, why would she run then? Is the VP really the candidate?

#167 Aggregator on 08.09.16 at 1:09 pm

Ottawa opens arms to Chinese students, tourists and workers

With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expected in China at month’s end for his first state visit, the Liberal government is trying to pry open a larger door to Chinese visitors that can swell university enrolments, place foreign talent in high-tech jobs and bring in new investment cash – even if that means adding to housing demand at a time of overheated home prices.

I don't think Canadians really understand what the government meant by Smart Growth and Sustainable Development. All I can see from here on is the social fabric of Canada deteriorating. You voted growth, you got it.

#168 Alvina Knows on 08.09.16 at 1:10 pm

“Former Ontario Progressive Ontario Leader Tim Hudak is leaving politics after 21 years, for a high-profile real estate job.”

The top of the housing market has been found!

#169 Shawn on 08.09.16 at 1:13 pm

Government Debt Worries

#108 Debt musical chairs on 08.09.16 at 12:23 am asked:

Can anyone explain to me how the trillions in debt does not matter? I am not a gold licker but you cannot borrow forever.

*****************************************
No, no one can explain that to you because 1. No one claims it does not matter (whatever that means) and 2. You have already decided that not only does it matter but it spells doom and it easy to tell from your rhetorical question(as well as your screen name here) that this is not open to argument in your mind.

The U.S. debt matters in many ways including the impact on its credit rating.

But actually, yes, the U.S. government can in fact borrow forever. It simply needs to pay the interest each year. And as some bonds mature and come due it can borrow new money to pay the old bonds. It may seem strange but it is true.

As long as creditors are willing to lend, the U.S. can borrow. And at the moment creditors are so incredibly willing to lend to the U.S. government that they are accepting next to nothing as an interest rate.

And (responding to some others) the U.S. government is largely not printing money to borrow. It did that a few years ago. But now the FED is not continuing to add to its balance sheet. It is maintaining the balance sheet by just replacing bonds as they come due with a small amount of purchasing. In the net, today’s additions to the U.S. government debt are coming from lenders, not the printing of money.

#170 Say What? on 08.09.16 at 1:16 pm

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.09.16 at 8:30 am

Hey, where do you get off treating smokers with such disdain. Smoking is not a choice. It is a manifestation of nicotine addiction and is now referred to as “Tobacco Use Disorder” in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. Smokers, as sufferers of a mental disorder, should not be subjected to this kind of verbal abuse. Perhaps, if the goal is to help smokers quit, gentle and encouraging persuasion would be more effective. Then again, nobody likes a quitter.

#171 Shawn on 08.09.16 at 1:19 pm

HELOCS and Home loses

“If RE prices drop by 30% are any HELOCS holders in danger of losing their house (along with their sons/daughters house that the HELOCS went toward)?”

*****************************************
No one is likely to lose their home due to a price drop alone. Banks are exceedingly unlikely to refuse to call in any loans as long as the payments continue to be made.

Job loss combined with an inability to find employment (if that happens) is what is likely to cause people top lose their homes.

#172 joblo on 08.09.16 at 1:20 pm

Some things in life are fair.
Go IEX!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vD8yavwEBcA

So how many online brokers in Canada use it? And hhow can the average Jo access ? Anyone?

#173 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 1:22 pm

#160 Capt. Serious on 08.09.16 at 12:01 pm
Trump can’t win unless he runs the table of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida. At best I can see him winning one of those (likely Ohio), but not all three. No Republican has won Pennsylvania in over three decades. He may also lose North Carolina given how many colored folks there despise him. He’s toast.
…………………

What’s Obama done for minorities. Zip, nada nothing. Only people that benefited are the gender confused.

This is what’s coming down the pipe for Killary.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/09/creativemasterminds-behind-batman-hulk-suicide-squad-join-forces-clinton-cash-graphic-novel/

#174 Shawn on 08.09.16 at 1:33 pm

Consider the Mortgage Insurance Business

It’s a funny business. In a rising house price market a mortgage insurance company could face extremely low claims for years as defaults are low (Like the approximate 0.30% 90 day delinquency rate in Canada)

In a major job loss recession combined with lower house prices, the defaults and delinquencies could absolutely soar. Past experience in good times would tell the insurer almost nothing about the expected losses in such bad times. Past bad times would be instructive. But the most recent significantly bad times in the Canadian mortgage insurance industry were over 25 years ago. And every recession is different.

This is an extremely cyclic area of the insurance business.

I note that Warren Buffett who runs what I think may be the world’s largest insurance conglomerate does not insure mortgages and never has. And he specialises in catastrophe insurance like Hurricanes and such.

I would hesitate to invest in the likes of Genworth Mortgage insurance. I know CMHC backstops it but I rather suspect Genworth shareholders would be wiped out if CMHC has to step in. I don’t know if any major housing defaults are on the horizon, but it is a risk.

The mortgage insurance industry is too unpredictable for my tastes.

#175 James on 08.09.16 at 1:34 pm

#151 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 10:54 am

She forgot to charge her batteries

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlxWckQbpug
……………………………………………………………………..
You idiot she is doing what all politicians do, and Trump does it to. She is stopping the clock and waiting for audience feedback and letting their fervor to her testament!
A persuasive presentation is a speech that’s made in an effort to influence a specific outcome. Your goal is to persuade your audience to believe in your cause and to take action to support you. Political speeches and fundraising speeches are great examples of persuasive presentations. In a persuasive speech, your final words – your closing– are the most important. I would surmise you have never done any public speaking yourself SM. You have truncated the video. Nice try though.

Anyone but TRUMP 2016!

#176 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 1:44 pm

Milosevic exonerated, as the NATO war machine moves on

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/354362-slobodan-milosevic-exonerated-us-nato/

Something you wont see on TV today. I remember posting a comment at the Toronto Sun way back when this was going down.. Peter Worthington loved it. And he knew the score.

I called it the Clinton/Monica detraction war, saved Bill Clinton’s ass from getting impeached.

Just like the photo shopped audiences at the people-less rallies at Hillary events MSM is doing it again. Photo Shopping in support. And the job is so bad you can spot it with the naked eye.

“There are Millions of Kosovo in camp looking to flee” Trick camera angles, and debauchery by MSM.

NWO has got it’s back against the wall.. And that makes them very dangerous now.

#177 Sheane Wallace on 08.09.16 at 1:46 pm

And what about central banks? Far from being the manipulative villains that gold nuts hate, these guys have largely co-ordinated monetary policy around the world since the 2008-9 disaster, fighting the forces of deflation and waning consumer demand with cheap money and oodles of stimulus. The main reason 2010 did not end up looking like 1932 was monetary policy – and the fact central banks from Washington to Beijing, London and Ottawa were singing from the same music.

———————————–

Singing from the same music is fine. Except that normally whoever pays, selects the music. It soon will be the savers/or the lack of such.

Central bankers have no place in determining the price of money. Period. That behavior that should be criminalized.

Not that it does not work wonderfully for my portfolio…

While there are idiots (savers on GICs or bond buyers) there would be ‘smart traders/bankers’ ripping them off.

Watch out when the idiots/and their savings disappear…

As for the rates – they have only one way – down and then negative. just watch the trend in 10 and 30 years treasuries.

#178 Brazil ex-pat on 08.09.16 at 1:47 pm

#148 nowayjose on 08.09.16 at 10:43 am
#57 Mark M. on 08.08.16 at 9:00 pm
“Commodity rebound.” — Garth

Gold?

That’s funny. Energy = 24%, Financials = 36%, Gold = 1%. — Garth”

Garth, there you go again….more recency bias….who’s to say gold won’t go up 40% in the next year?

Calling for Trump in a landside……the world needs this guy noew. To paraphrase the great Patches O’Houlihan of Dodgeball fame…

“What are the 5 D’s…dodge, duck, dip, dive and Donald!
……go ya crazy b*stard go!”

The stats I gave were for market weightings. Pay attention. — Garth

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

24% for sub 40 oil soon? OUCH !!

#179 joblo on 08.09.16 at 1:56 pm

In Central Banks we trust?

Seems this guy, was President of the European Commission, one year after being forced to resign in 2013 as Prime Minister of Luxembourg.

One of his most famous quotes is perhaps the truest eight words in politics: “When it gets serious, you have to lie.”

2011 when he was caught lying about a secret meeting about Greece’s debt crisis.

Now here’s some leadership:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU&inf_contact_key=2c9b4b14e6e5a85376fe46f8f9654c97dde2ffd88742e44

#180 jess on 08.09.16 at 2:09 pm

All you trump followers should Have a listen :
The list Donald does not want you to know
http://wamc.org/post/making-donald-trump-david-cay-johnston
=======================

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/celebrity/the-donald-and-the-dealer-173892
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-mob-organized-crime-213910

21 Questions For Donald Trump
July 10, 2015 4:41 pm / 734 Comments / Featured Post, Politics, Top News
http://www.nationalmemo.com/21-questions-for-donald-trump/

#181 Neil Armstrong on 08.09.16 at 2:17 pm

Daily Dose of Disruption: “If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” Electric utilities getting into the solar market.

“The trend shows just how difficult life has become for traditional generators as the cost of rooftop solar power reaches parity with grid electricity — they’re all trying to figure out how to offer new services.”

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/more-utilities-are-offering-self-consumption-packages?utm_source=Solar&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=GTMSolar

#182 Eks dee sipal on 08.09.16 at 2:32 pm

#54 Shawn… ” …the FED effectively prints money from thin air… ”

Has hell frozen over? Are you finally getting it?

80 billion dollars in compensation per year is paid to the private banking cartel (Commercial Banking Parasites) for the privilege of borrowing their money. This money is not even counted in the official issuing of the Treasury Notes. Parasitic, unproductive, unnecessary.

It’s on top of the FIRST DIBS on interest the commercial banks get on new money, affectionately known as the overnight rate. Hidden. Divine Right of Rule. The exact mechanism is kept a secret.

#183 Marcus on 08.09.16 at 2:41 pm

Just to let you know Garth. Hillary is not cancelling events due to not enough people showing up. There is a very strong possibility of a Trump landslide if you believe the social media states in favor of Trump. The polls are being manipulated and this has been admitted by many insider Democrats. Just an FYI. Reality may surprise you in Nov.

#184 Marcus on 08.09.16 at 2:42 pm

Typo ….. now cancelling events.

#185 Mr. Frugal on 08.09.16 at 2:47 pm

Nobody likes Crooked Hillary. Nobody!!! It’s so bad that the media has to photoshop the crowd at her sad pathetic rally.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/08/08/media-photoshops-crowd-image-for-hillary-clinton-st-petersburg-florida-speech/

#186 Amy Smith on 08.09.16 at 2:58 pm

Wait until 2017 when Dow Jones, TSX will all be 14,000 and 12,000. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq will be 1,600 and 4,000 respectively.

Worldwide stock markets will easily also see a 20% to 25% drop in coming months into 2017.

You just made that up, right? — Garth

#187 jess on 08.09.16 at 3:06 pm

#18 Joe2.0 on 08.08.16 at 7:11 pm
check out Byron Burger chain uk @ the guardian
=
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/stocks

#188 Graeme on 08.09.16 at 3:51 pm

But since Dec gold has soared and again since Brexit 25% in all. I’m no doomer–I look forward to the day I dump the gold and buy “cheap” stocks to ride the real growth wave. Today is not that day. Tomorrow isn’t looking good either. At very least I’ll wait until after November.

#189 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 4:06 pm

#175 James on 08.09.16 at 1:34 pm
#151 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 10:54 am

She forgot to charge her batteries

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlxWckQbpug
……………………………………………………………………..
You idiot she is doing what all politicians do, and Trump does it to. She is stopping the clock and waiting for audience feedback and letting their fervor to her testament!
A persuasive presentation is a speech that’s made in an effort to influence a specific outcome. Your goal is to persuade your audience to believe in your cause and to take action to support you. Political speeches and fundraising speeches are great examples of persuasive presentations. In a persuasive speech, your final words – your closing– are the most important. I would surmise you have never done any public speaking yourself SM. You have truncated the video. Nice try though.

Anyone but TRUMP 2016!
……………………

Man was I wrong, I had you pegged as a Bernie supporter.

Easily triggered, irrational aggressive behavior, PC, communist tendencies.

Who would have guessed a Hillary supporter.

#190 Freedom First on 08.09.16 at 4:06 pm

#130 Turner Nation

Yes. One minor correction. The ladies from Eastern Europe, while delightful, insist on marriage or living together after only 3-4 months tops. And they are deadly serious, even though they know up front about my Freedom First lifestyle. However, it’s all good. I accept their ultimaniums in good spirit.

#191 Context on 08.09.16 at 4:13 pm

#166 Bytor the Snow Dog :- The only thing I can say, if she becomes President someone better hide the football.

#192 Grey Dog on 08.09.16 at 4:19 pm

142 Context: specifically where in Caledon are you looking? I was raised in Caledon, siblings and parents still there. If you are accustomed to amenities, restaurants, specialty shops, etc, you are heading for a wasteland! I guess it matters where you are coming from. Hubby and I occasionally entertained the thought of retiring there, however, a couple weeks ago when taking my parents out for lunch, had to go to Brampton airport for lunch…took 45 minutes for a waitress to give us a single glass of water, eventually the WORST lunch we ever had. Mobility is difficult for parents and whipping Parents up to Belfountain for lunch during high tourist season is out. Restaurants come and go in Bolton, forget that place.
You do know a huge freeway is going through that region in the next few years. Do your homework, make certain the home you are looking at is NOT near that.

#193 James on 08.09.16 at 4:24 pm

#189 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 4:06 pm

#175 James on 08.09.16 at 1:34 pm
#151 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 10:54 am

She forgot to charge her batteries

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlxWckQbpug
……………………………………………………………………..
You idiot she is doing what all politicians do, and Trump does it to. She is stopping the clock and waiting for audience feedback and letting their fervor to her testament!
A persuasive presentation is a speech that’s made in an effort to influence a specific outcome. Your goal is to persuade your audience to believe in your cause and to take action to support you. Political speeches and fundraising speeches are great examples of persuasive presentations. In a persuasive speech, your final words – your closing– are the most important. I would surmise you have never done any public speaking yourself SM. You have truncated the video. Nice try though.

Anyone but TRUMP 2016!
……………………

Man was I wrong, I had you pegged as a Bernie supporter.

Easily triggered, irrational aggressive behavior, PC, communist tendencies.

Who would have guessed a Hillary supporter.
……………………………………………………………………
Nope you got one wrong and one right above.
Firstly I am not a Hillary supporter. Smoking Man -1

Secondly this one is correct! It describes Trump 100%.
Easily triggered, irrational aggressive behavior, PC, communist tendencies. Smoking Man +1

So your even at -1 and +1.

#194 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 4:25 pm

Hey James

Here is your Hillary :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2Cwma6l0HQ

Phyco progressives is all I’m thinking

#195 Mark on 08.09.16 at 4:54 pm

“No one is likely to lose their home due to a price drop alone. Banks are exceedingly unlikely to refuse to call in any loans as long as the payments continue to be made.”

I agree with the premise that the banks are unlikely to ‘call’ in loans, but escalating the interest rates on them seems to be likely.

Is there really any difference between an explicit “call” on a loan, and raising the loan’s cost to a rate that exceeds that which can actually be paid by the borrower? They both equate to a call to me (but the latter situation has the advantage of increasing a bank’s claim on the future bankrupt’s estate, and, at least for a short while, most ‘honest’ people will try to make the payments at the higher rate, even though such is probably futile).

Its quite possible that this ends up being a systemic ‘call’ on adjustable rate debt. Whether its because there’s another segment of the economy which needs credit on account of vibrance. Regulatory action on capital requirements for holding HELOCs at the banks. Or even policy rate action at the Bank of Canada.

#196 Torstar Layoffs on 08.09.16 at 4:54 pm

Just keep adding them on….

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/torstar-lays-off-more-than-50-employees-including-19-from-star-newsroom-1.3021757

#197 Dan on 08.09.16 at 4:58 pm

DELETED

#198 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 5:00 pm

This can’t be good for Real Estate.

Tim Hudak leaving politics to be CEO of the Ontario Real Estate Association.

He blew the election huge….

There you go basement dwellers, your dream might turn to reality.

#199 Context on 08.09.16 at 5:02 pm

#192 Grey Dog :- I will be eating most of my meals at home with a live in cook and maid who does all the shopping. The short drive to Newmarket has the Go Train for a ride into sin city for some real action and besides a nice 2 acre lot for $14,000 a year in property taxes seems reasonable. Furthermore, there is parking for 20 cars as have the occasional wild party.

#200 45north on 08.09.16 at 5:03 pm

AfterTheHouseSold: from your link:

The Canadian auto industry is facing its biggest existential threat since the 2009 crisis, with the future of at least three plants at risk as autoworkers gear up to begin labour negotiations this week.

last time there were calls for a big wage cut

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_2008–10_automotive_industry_crisis_on_Canada

so much to read, so little time

#201 Metaxa on 08.09.16 at 5:13 pm

Here is your guy…what a statesman!

If she gets to pick her judges,” Trump said, “nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is.

Full article here:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-executed-clinton-short-circuited?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

I wonder what the Secret service thinks of stuff like this?

#202 Shawn on 08.09.16 at 5:13 pm

Apparently, it IS Different in the United States

LGI Homes just reported better-than-expected earnings. The average home price rose 6% to $197,450. LGI raised its full-year EPS guidance to $3.20-$3.70…

http://www.investors.com/news/lgi-homes-raises-guidance-as-home-prices-rise-6/

******************************************
In the United States a home building company is selling new homes for under $200k and making a profit doing it.

Yes, it is different there. Vastly different.

Here is a link to the home styles. These appear to actual single family houses.

http://www.lgihomes.com/

And Americans can lock in record-low 30 years rates. And the millennials THERE are afraid to buy.

Yep, it’s different there all right.

#203 Capt. Obvious on 08.09.16 at 5:28 pm

I agree with the premise that the banks are unlikely to ‘call’ in loans, but escalating the interest rates on them seems to be likely.
Is there really any difference between an explicit “call” on a loan, and raising the loan’s cost to a rate that exceeds that which can actually be paid by the borrower?

Why would the bank want to force out a borrower who is paying interest? Banks don’t want your house, they want your interest payments. Doubly so if house prices are heading south. Triply so if banks can increase the interest rate in a managed fashion to not topple the apple cart.

#204 Smoking Man on 08.09.16 at 5:43 pm

#201 Metaxa on 08.09.16 at 5:13 pm
Here is your guy…what a statesman!

“If she gets to pick her judges,” Trump said, “nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is.”

Full article here:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-executed-clinton-short-circuited?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

I wonder what the Secret service thinks of stuff like this?
………………

My interpretation was, get involved, mobilize, go vote.

To suggest Trump just ordered a hit on Hillary is ludicrous, only a left minded moron would think otherwise.

#205 Metaxa on 08.09.16 at 5:46 pm

http://www.snopes.com/2016/08/09/politics-sites-mismatched-clinton-rally-image-goes-viral/

Run everything posted by Trump lovers through Snopes and/or Google is all I’m saying.

They lie to you in order to manipulate you.
Think for yourself, do not let others think for you.

After all you don’t let professionals provide you with wealth management now do you, you self made millionaires you…

#206 maxx on 08.09.16 at 6:27 pm

#34 not 1st on 08.08.16 at 7:32 pm

“If Canada is doing so bad, how come the TSX is on a tear.”

Because money costs and pays nothing.
It’s been downgraded to near zero respect and people’s heads have been played so as to be nearly completely unafraid to borrow.
Debt habituation is frighteningly commonplace.
More importantly, the severely downgraded status of money has eclipsed the irony that it is actually more important than ever. Why?
Because decent jobs are evaporating rapidly and not coming back.
Because prices for basic necessities continually ratchet higher as do taxes, fees and service charges.
Because boomers are retiring daily in swarms and realize, painfully, that savings safety now costs too much and takes a huge bite out of their quality of life. The reality of retirement finances hits most of them squarely in the face. Job status doesn’t usually carry over into retirement. Unless one has plenty of money.
Because the young can’t even get decent jobs to start their adult lives. Life’s a b!tch without enough money, adequate income or job security.
The indebted who routinely juggle small change to pay for life’s essentials know this well.
We should all start paying more attention to the diseased messages peddled by msm and marketing.
Money is worth saving and conserving – with a very large measure of caution.
In the real world, where people need food, shelter and heat, money is undeniably valuable. Those who are fortunate enough to make it or actually have saved it ought to guard it with their lives.
Because quality of life rests squarely upon it.

#207 Tudval on 08.09.16 at 7:07 pm

“the current odds of Hillary Clinton becoming the next US president” are 84%.

Actually the odds are precisely 100%, even if Trump would lead in polls by 15%. But not to get Obama worried, such polls will never see the light of day.

OK, I admit, if we are to believe the speculation by ‘analysts’ appearing on reputable news channels like BNN and CNN that Putin might hack the voting machines first (I’m not making this up), before anybody else gets a chance to, than maybe the chance is only 84%.

#208 Scott Hampton on 08.09.16 at 7:32 pm

The TSX is the terrible performer. It was at a high of 15,000 back in 2007 and today closed at 14,801.
Th TSX is on a tear, what are you looking at?

Even after dividends and annual fees, much more money would of been made in a 5 year GIC at an average 4.0% over the last 9 years of so, 5.0% back in 2007+3.0% back in 2012. This is simple interest.

A total 45% compound interest or 5% on average after compounding GIC interest.

Never heard of rebalancing, I guess. — Garth

#209 Dmitriy on 08.10.16 at 5:46 pm

“Commodity rebound.” — Garth

Gold?

That’s funny. Energy = 24%, Financials = 36%, Gold = 1%. — Garth

————————————————————–
Wrong.
Actually gold is up more than 26% year to date.
Thanks to “Central bankers know what they doing” and their remedies.

You have no idea about this asset class, but at the same time bashing people who do own it. Nice.

And by the way.
Instead of blindly praising Central Bankers who “saved the world” from financial catastrophe of 2008-2010 with freshly printed trillions of dollars (future tax obligations) you have to ask yourself another question.

How did we get there?

The numbers referenced the weighting of various sectors on the TSX. When you learn to read, you will earn the right to comment. — Garth

#210 Dmitriy on 08.10.16 at 6:41 pm

I thought you are more mature. :)

Keep playing in your sandbox with people who “earned the right” to play with you.

No need for excuses.
And never listen to different opinions that contradict yours, because you always know better.
Right, Garth?

When you learn to read, write clearly instead of covering your bases.