Not so hot

K9 UNIT modified

Saturday night, Vern was at a cocktail party in Calgary.

Yes, they still have them there. Quaint. Very Stepford.

“So I asked 15 or 20 people what they thought about the Jobs Report,” he says. “I got blank stares every time.”

As you know (of course), the report Vern references came out Friday and it sucked. The country lost 74,200 full-time positions, many of them in Ontario manufacturing, while creating about 40,000 part-time McJobs. The net result was a loss of 31,000 paycheques while the Americans added 255,000 in the same period.

Making it worse were the trade stats. Our trade deficit is at a record as exports decline – despite our currency turning into a dolarette. In June we imported $3.63 billion more stuff than we sold – a net outflow of capital from a country whose economy is now contracting.

Here’s how the trade thing’s going. Look out below!

TRADE DEFICIT

Back to Vern and his cocktail chatter. Maybe people in Calgary (and elsewhere) can be excused for not knowing what the current trade deficit is, or that we actually have one, but the jobs situation is another matter entirely. Listen to what Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist at the local real estate board has to say: “Continued pullback of sales activity is a sign of economic conditions. The number of unemployed workers keeps rising, and when you combine job losses with declining net migration, the result is going to be weaker housing demand.”

Bingo. So for 20 of the last 20 months, fewer people have been buying houses in this major Canadian city. In fact, as this blog demonstrated last week, there’s a similar pullback happening in most major markets. Apparently, without people knowing about it.

“I wish I had this chart to show them why jobs matter,” Vern says, of his distracted friends. It’s from the Calgary Real Estate Board. Not good.

CALGARY CHART

Whether people in other cities believe it or not (most don’t), the overall Canadian economy’s remarkable current weakness won’t stop at Cowtown’s city limits. It’s being felt in southern Ontario towns where car seats and dashboards used to be made, in the Maritimes where nobody’s flying west to work in oil and the offshore rigs are quiet, plus in the lives of countless middle-aged execs and managers everywhere who’ll never be hired again. Anyone convinced this won’t affect real estate, confidence, spending and the economy is deluding themselves. It’s a more dangerous situation facing the Canuckistan middle class now than back in 2009.

Jobs matter. More than cheap mortgage rates, dumbass taxes on foreign buyers, dwindling listings, the price of oil or demographics. On the weekend, BMO head honcho economist Doug Porter called the labour and trade numbers a “gruesome twosome” which were “notably weaker than expected.” And remember that this comes on the heels of a report showing the economy shrank by 0.6% in the latest quarter – despite a 65% surge in oil prices since the winter and a 75-cent dollar, intended to make our exports cheap.

So what does all this mean?

That things will likely worsen before they improve. The risk associated with Canadian residential real estate (not the kind Doug Rowat wrote about yesterday) is augmenting, dramatically at odds with what people actually believe. Linda, a well-heeled blog dog, ran into that last week…

“So I’m shopping for a condo townhouse in Toronto and the woman who owns one I like, listed at $1.65 million told me not to ‘waste her time’ if I’m going to offer less than $1.7. The taxes and condo fees on this thing are $18,000 a year and it has a $5,000-per-year special assessment for the next four. I hate what this market is doing to people…”

Don’t we all? The nation’s in denial. Sleepwalking.

Remember those realtor survey stats last week showing most millennials plan on buying a house in the next two years, with almost eight in ten saying real estate is a great investment? Odds are 80% have nothing in their TFSAs, no net worth, and are totally okay with chowing down hundreds of thousands in mortgage debt. Guess how that will work out?

Well, don’t underestimate the potential consequences when people wake up. Always have a Plan B. And love liquidity. Cocktails don’t count.

185 comments ↓

#1 Polozified on 08.07.16 at 3:31 pm

Recession-proof industries:
-blogging
-luxury yacht sales
-central banking

You’re welcome

#2 Josef on 08.07.16 at 3:34 pm

First!!! Oh Yeah BABY!!! Yeah!!!

#3 Randy Randerson on 08.07.16 at 3:41 pm

Linda, just bookmark this condo’s address. When SHTF, email the owner rub it in her face that the didn’t entertain your offer, now she’s stuck with this $18,000 a year condo fee sucking condo.

#4 MF on 08.07.16 at 3:48 pm

So everything is looking gloomy yet no one seems to notice here in the GTA. Last night on Queen street there were tons of people out spending money. Same with Friday. No one seems alarmed on the ground. Now that’s not exactly a reliable indicator of our whole economy, but it seems like business as usual here. My place of work does seem a little slow.. but most people are blaming the nice weather on the slow sales.

Is it all being masked by debt? Will Poloz lower the rate once again, further overheating the GTA housing market in the hope of saving the “rest” of the economy? Did the other two reductions do anything? Nope. Would that be a smart move? Nope.

CPD has been going up for about a month none stop. In six months I might even be breaking even at this rate..unless Poloz does the only thing he knows how to do and pointlessly cut interest rates again. So I have to ask. If the US is doing so well, then why is there no real spillover effect on Canada?

MF

#5 Jimmy on 08.07.16 at 3:57 pm

First!!

#6 MF on 08.07.16 at 4:00 pm

Linda Linda…you should have put 5% down on that 1.7 million dollar condo. Heck you should have offered 1.9 million. It doesn’t matter since you will sell in a few days and make thousands of profit!

Psst: price doesn’t really matter these days since GTA real estate only goes up up up up. CP24 and TREB told me so if you want proof.

Be sure to use a shadow lender that will fake your McJob income of $20,000/year.

It’s a no lose strategy. Trust me. The millions of dollars of debt is “good debt”, and you can brag that your new condo is worth 1.7 MILLION dollars to all your over-leveraged friends who also all believe they are financial geniuses for being deep in “good” debt.

Don’t worry the central bankers have your back. They are in total control so enjoy! These guys are professionals and they know what they are doing. They care about your financial well being. So have a drink! You deserve that condo girl!

MF

#7 Metaxa on 08.07.16 at 4:01 pm

For a time I was a silent investor/partner in an auto dealership.
We had a saying, some of the customers were “inadvertent enthusiasts”.

Buy a RoadBlaster 2000 with tuned suspension and you weren’t going to be replacing your tires at Canadian Tire, no sir. Had to be the $300 a pop items from a specialty shop or your warranty went away on the suspension at least. Just the one model had this quirk, but still…

A lot of folks these days are finding themselves becoming inadvertent enthusiasts about macro and micro economics, the markets, etc.

You can insulate yourself by not buying into lot of stuff, you don’t have to live in TO or VAN to have a happy life.
My 6 year old car with normal 16″ wheels and tires is just fine. Gets 30+ mpg and I don’t care if my kayak drips sea scum onto it as I travel home after an afternoon on the water watching seals, orcas and multiple eagles frolic and eat and splash and play.

Eagle came down so fast this morning he actually got a salmon at the surface and I was so close I could clearly hear the creak of his wing bones as he powered up from the water, salmon in talons.

All the while my investments (professionally managed unlike you do it yourselfers) do the same as if I lived somewhere hot, hot, hot and needed medicine to help me poop.

Hopefully people will learn that…

#8 Ray Skunk on 08.07.16 at 4:02 pm

Won’t take less than $1.7 – so lists for $1.65.

Welcome to the world of Realtor bullshittery. “Sold over asking!” – always will if you won’t take the asking price.

#9 White Crock BC on 08.07.16 at 4:12 pm

So what does all this mean?

That things will likely worsen before they improve. -Garth

———————————–

Would love to hear one reason why things will ever improve, save for $100 oil.

Oil and manufacturing are dead. Real estate is dying.

Neither one of the future US presidents will be good for Canada.

The worse things get, the more those that can bail out to the south will do so, making things even worse and accelerating the cycle.

Doomed

#10 Crdt on 08.07.16 at 4:21 pm

From Langley BC… Been driving around lately, and there are WAY more houses for sale. It could bee that the houses are coming to market at the same rate, but not selling as fast…

#11 Cecil Henry on 08.07.16 at 4:27 pm

1.7 million dollars?? ITs still a LOT of money!!!

Some hope to win a lottery of such size.

Others hope to buy a house of such size.

Who is more nuts!!

1.7 million dollar houses spell POVERTY, not wealth.

#12 Ken R on 08.07.16 at 4:34 pm

#1 Polozified on 08.07.16 at 3:31 pm

Recession-proof industries:
-blogging
-luxury yacht sales
-central banking

You’re welcome

Recession Proof Industries:

Payday Loan Shops
Tattoo Shops
Pawn Shops
Collection Agencies

#13 Metaxa on 08.07.16 at 4:41 pm

Recession Proof Industries:

HVAC.
The rich will always want to be warm or cool.

#14 Ardy on 08.07.16 at 4:44 pm

Where did all the “free trade is wonderful” politicians go ?

#15 BOOM! on 08.07.16 at 4:46 pm

Jobs matter! Nobody can buy, or sell real estate when buyers are unemployed. (duh)!!

Whether interest rates are 2.5% or 5% matter little when you have a job, and a down payment. Strange thing is, the price of said RE will adjust somewhat to demand AND interest rates.

I feel for those who have lost manufacturing jobs. They will likely not be coming back. Oil waxes and wanes on price / demand. As we develop more hybrid and electric vehicles with decent commuter ranges, oil demand will stall here in the US. Demographics might have an impact as well. Retired do not drive as much, the youngest don’t care to drive period.

Things change, who would have guessed? Not me…

#16 Gen Xer in YVR on 08.07.16 at 4:48 pm

The young have learned to play the game. Get as much credit as possible and buy real estate.

If it goes down, then everyone goes down. Worst case scenario is 7 years bankruptcy. Whoopee. Just go back to your Dad’s country for those 7 years and then come back.

If it goes up, $$$$

#17 Gen Xer in YVR on 08.07.16 at 4:53 pm

We all know CDN rates are going to ZERO (Poloz). What they need to do is crash the RE bubble and have a reset. But the crooks won’t.

Only thing driving the economy right now is immigration and the housing markets of Toronto and Vancouver.

There is nothing else.

#18 Freeman on 08.07.16 at 4:57 pm

Recession-proof industries:
– Guns
– Drugs
– Prostitution
– Politics
– Repo-men

#19 Gen Xer in YVR on 08.07.16 at 5:01 pm

http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/vancouver-leads-the-world-in-property-value-increases-again

Vancouver is #1 in the whole world.
Singapore #2.

Wow.

#20 This Week in Money on 08.07.16 at 5:01 pm

Ross Kay says prices in Vancouver were in decline for months prior to the introduction of the 15% tax.

http://www.howestreet.com/2016/08/06/this-week-in-money-58/

#21 Context on 08.07.16 at 5:05 pm

Weight, speed, and momentum is about to take place. My grandfather was a head railroad engineer and as a little boy asked him a stupid question if he smashed up any cars and killed anyone. He simply said could see it coming with a stalled car on the track and would apply all the braking systems but takes a mile or so for the train to stop. The same can be said about residential real estate in the GTA as we can see it coming but to sell now might be too late. Garth warned you all did he not.

#22 46 and 2 on 08.07.16 at 5:07 pm

“Canuckistan”…..sadly you are not far off.

#23 Scumop on 08.07.16 at 5:09 pm

If things are getting worse, as it seems, how to profit?

Create and sell Canada Collapse Insurance (CCI).

You insure the customer’s C$ for $0.20 each (exact figure TBD) annual premium. These must be verifiable C$ (in a gic or bank account or something similiar). If C$ goes down below some level the policy specifies, you pay out the difference if they still hold the insured asset.

You will convert those premiums to US$ of course. Preferably you want monthly payments, but thats ok.

When C$ fall, US$ rise exactly in opposition so the 20 cents expands to fill the payout if you do it right.

Anyone who spent their C$ loses any benefit, so more of the premiums flow to CCI as “free money”.

Marketing to an easily frightened / influenced segment of the population is fairly straightforward. Press releases are your friend. Just the news that someone is selling C$ insurance against a currency collapse will fire up the fear mongering and bring in the, mmmm choosing the word carefully… customers.

We’ve seen even governments fall to scary fiction such as AsianRealEstateInvasion and fight back with taxes.

Can the hoard of easily influenced millenials resist? You only need a few percent of them to see vast profits.

#24 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.07.16 at 5:11 pm

Here’s how the trade thing’s going. Look out below!

That graph is as clear as day that canada is NOT an exporter country…

#25 Eco Capitalist on 08.07.16 at 5:12 pm

Want your kids to have a decent paying job in the future? Tell them to work at a port or for a railway. We import our trade deficit by the container load every day.

#26 The American on 08.07.16 at 5:27 pm

At #4: MF, you asked, “If the US is doing so well, then why is there no real spillover effect on Canada?”

The answer is so goddamn simple, and Canadians are absolutely delusional to it. The answer to your question is because Canada is truly sucking soooooo much worse than y’all want to believe. There IS a spill over effect, and you are witnessing it. I cannot imagine how much worse it would e if the U.S. weren’t in fact doing so well. The Canadian economy is completely in the shitter and nobody in your country wants to acknowledge it.

#27 Kübler-Ross Phase 2 Soon to Come on 08.07.16 at 5:34 pm

As I posted a few days ago, cannot wait for Anger to take hold after Denial is done and read what many talented blog dog writers here say (the “Who is to Blame?” part of Phase 2 should be entertainment plus which includes hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent…I’d get busy on this Garth if I were you…a good thing to prepare for).

#16 Gen Xer in YVR
Have helped friends in BC and AB thru bankruptcies. You can sojourn all you want for 7 years out of Canada but the renegotiated debt does not disappear and nor will you obtain a mortgage soon thereafter…it will take years to rebuild your credit.

Even though after 10 years it should be erased from your credit score/history, it may still be there unless you request it expunged (e.g., Equifax has a long and unforgiving memory).

So, NO $$$$ after like you think.

#28 Freedom First on 08.07.16 at 5:34 pm

As everyone knows, I sold 100% of my Oil&gas ETF’s when oil peaked at $140, as I wrote on this Blog when I did it. As everyone here also knows, as I wrote here, that I bought back into Oil&Gas ETF’s when oil sank into the $thirties.

I am 50% underweight oil & gas, so I am going to pull the trigger, and go fully weighted, buying more oil&gas ETF’s this coming week(s), as there is so many signals now apparent that the energy sector is going to lift off in a big way (The U.S. election, rates going up, etc.) The lift off may not be immediate, and I don’t care, as what I do care about is buying near the bottom, and selling near the top, and, of course, getting paid while I wait.

I will write here when I pull the trigger. It will be before Sept.

#29 Context on 08.07.16 at 5:52 pm

The current real estate bubble is the biggest in history and if you thought the last two bubbles were bad you ain’t seen anything yet. So many are living in denial and the risk is not worth losing those tax free dollars as its a risk reward situation. I cannot fathom anyone buying a home at the top in the hope of making more, as when the tipping point starts you can kiss your equity goodbye and with those buying on debt you will be under water in a NY minute. Its going to be nasty for the GTA and condos will be the first to go down with the rest following the decline. Some areas will do better than others and when the bottom hits it will look like a train wreck with power of sales everywhere. Those that sold and invested wisely will get the last laugh. Always remember greed is a killer hoping for more.

#30 Brian Ripley on 08.07.16 at 5:55 pm

I have my 6 city chart published now:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

Residential sales across Canada are up 8% since the end of 2015.

I also plot the combined average sum of Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto condos and that metric is now 41% HIGHER than a median priced Montreal SFD and they are also higher in price than an Ottawa average SFD and they are also moving closer to being more expensive than an average Edmonton SFD.

This is an excellent time to be selling condos eh?

#31 Mark M. on 08.07.16 at 5:59 pm

Amazing, Garth never mentions that the US trade deficit hit a 10-month high in June, and why would he, it doesn’t fit his US “recovery” narrative. We only hear about our trade imbalance.

But since the US is BOOOOMING, I guess the four rate hikes for this year are back on. 1.1% GDP growth in the first quarter after 8 years of historically low interest rates and trillions in QE, there’s a record to be boasting about.

And before the Garthbots spin this, I recognize our economy is also a wreck. The problem is that Central Banks the word over are trying desperately to solve a problem they created, and are quite obviously making everything worse.

The US deficit is not historic, as is Canada’s, and comes with a high American dollar, while ours has plopped. Not so bad. As for rate increases, the consensus seems to be one more later this year, a couple or more next year. The consensus for 2016 US GDP is 2%. Our GDP will be lucky to hit 1%. — Garth

#32 earthboundmisfit on 08.07.16 at 6:03 pm

@28 Freedom First …… I’m sure I won’t be the first to have noticed, but you, sir, are an a$$hole.

#33 TurnerNation on 08.07.16 at 6:14 pm

The paint has dried on yesterday’s blog and I stopped watching it.

– On MLS I see recently listed a sht bung in Long Branch for 850k. Seriously there is no one anywhere else on this planet stupid enough to buy such a thing at that price but Kanadians.

#34 Oa515 on 08.07.16 at 6:16 pm

Not sure why average Canadians aren’t feeling the economy unless they’re specifically handed the pink slip. People seem to think stats don’t apply to them.
One slice of good news is that oil & gas has likely bottomed. (Not that Alberta will benefit from it as the NDP has salted the Earth for a generation.)
Five reasons to invest in oil: http://www.poletical.com/invest-in-oil.php

#35 Damifino on 08.07.16 at 6:20 pm

That trade deficit graph is the most sobering thing to appear on this blog in quite some time.

Downright scary. I wonder if T2 knows…

#36 Andrew Woburn on 08.07.16 at 6:37 pm

Looks like the only safe place to keep your Bitcoin wallet is on a thumb drive in an old coffee can buried at the bottom of your garden.

– Bitcoin Price Drops 20% After $72 Million in Bitcoin Stolen from Bitfinex Exchange

http://thehackernews.com/2016/08/bitcoin-exchange-price.html

#37 common sense on 08.07.16 at 6:39 pm

Friday’s US job numbers are likely complete bullshit for the upcoming election.

#4 MF – as for people in T.O. spending like it’s 1999, look at any small town in Ontario. I swear after 7pm, you could shoot off a rocket on almost any street and no one would get hit. Who had the disposable income? Burlington and Niagara Falls were packed and very busy this weekend…let’s see what happens post labour day.

#28 FF…I’ll say oil goes to $45 tops and starts down again….just after the election. I have the short side of your trade x 3.

Canadian interest rates to go down for sure, US rates status quo til post election.

Excellent ZH article today about oil prices and stock market valuations…watch the $40 oil price.

#38 Context on 08.07.16 at 6:42 pm

#33 TurnerNation :- Long Branch is an up and coming area with very few listings. Many of those properties are updated inside as watch it unfold. My main site will be reporting on the 16th with all the latest stats for any city in Ontario. For example Mississauga has 31 distinctive areas and can get the stats right down to the total listings. Need the first three digits of a postal code and can obtain the detailed stats on the neighborhood. Long Branch looks good but the sample base is too small.

#39 Brazil ex-pat on 08.07.16 at 6:43 pm

As for rate increases, the consensus seems to be one more later this year, a couple or more next year. The consensus for 2016 US GDP is 2%. Our GDP will be lucky to hit 1%. — Garth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Assuming the bond market pops this fall 100% agree. If not……not so much agree there will be rate hikes.

#40 Cici on 08.07.16 at 6:43 pm

#4 MF

“So I have to ask. If the US is doing so well, then why is there no real spillover effect on Canada?”
____________________________________________

I’ll take a wild guess…because our American cousins are taking advantage of our business weakness and dwindling dollar to snap up good businesses on the cheap, then close up shop and relocate operations to the US, where land, commercial rents and labour cost less?

It occurs to me that we did that to them when they tanked circa 2006 to 2009, so it’s probably their chance to bring on the buyouts, mergers, acquistions and hostile take-overs. So this time, we’re on the losing side…

#41 mike leblond on 08.07.16 at 6:45 pm

Share this: “Chinese Media Warns Canada’s Housing Crash Will Put U.S. To Shame”

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/stephen-punwasi/canadian-housing-crash_b_11349292.html

#42 jay on 08.07.16 at 6:54 pm

Maybe J.T. will start supplying free Viagra so the new child benefit will kick start the economy . Thousand’s a year tax free!!!!!!!

#43 Freedom First on 08.07.16 at 7:01 pm

#32 earthboundmisfit on 08.07.16 at 6:03 pm

@28 Freedom First …… I’m sure I won’t be the first to have noticed, but you, sir, are an a$$hole.

FF007

As both a Zen Buddhist and Hindu master, I greet you grasshopper with the warmest, namaste. As a zen master, I am continuing on my path to Nirvana, a heaven like state of immortality that little ones like you can hardly expect to appreciate. Do not concern yourself with my greatness dear friend.

“As a dog licks your slipper, so does the flea scratch your back.”

Learn from the master.

#44 not 1st on 08.07.16 at 7:03 pm

Garth is totally misreading Calgary.

All those foreigners shut out if Vancouver will be jaunting over the rocking to pick up even cheaper housing. This is the bottom not the top.

#45 Shawn on 08.07.16 at 7:07 pm

Asking Questions for Which No Answer is Wanted

#9 White Crock BC on 08.07.16 at 4:12 pm asked (insincerely and rhetorically since no answer would be believed)

———————————–

“Would love to hear one reason why things will ever improve, save for $100 oil.”

*************************************
Well, “things” in terms of average living standard have been improving for at least 1000 years due to technological improvements including improvements in banking.

So I suspect that things will continue to improve a while longer for the same reason: technological improvements leading to greater productivity.

How HAS the doomer crowd done on their investments since 2008 anyhow?

#46 Context on 08.07.16 at 7:12 pm

I just took a look at Vaughan and the average asking price as at August 7th is $958,006 with 20 parts or communities. Its on fire as both the medium and mean are turning higher with the listings turning down. The postal digits needed for neighborhood stats are 39. It would take me hours to analyze it all. Looks like a great place to own some real estate.

#47 april on 08.07.16 at 7:14 pm

#30 – Vancouver home prices peaked last Feb and have dropped 10% since then and will continue to drop from here on. Check link at #20, This week in Money.

#48 Moron Face on 08.07.16 at 7:16 pm

Trump is intentionally throwing the election. He never wanted to win. It’s over. Landslide Dem victory – house & senate majority. The elephants are done for this election cycle and probably the next also. We will have Clinton in the whitehouse for 8 years. God bless America.

#49 Moron Face on 08.07.16 at 7:17 pm

It’s almost as thought Trump is trying to destroy the Republican party at this point. He’s pulling the pins out of grenades left right and center.

#50 jay on 08.07.16 at 7:18 pm

The Mayor of Toronto is doing his part for the economy ,he want’s to build a 20 acre park downtown at the bargain price of $33 million per acre.This is a great time to be a politician in this country .

#51 Barb on 08.07.16 at 7:22 pm

A worker of a very large industrial parts supplier company was overheard Friday to say: “We’ve been dead quiet for a couple of weeks, nobody’s ordering or buying anything, NADA, none of the employees have anything to do, so I took the day off.”

He added: “It must be ‘coz everyone’s on vacation.”

Maybe…

#52 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.16 at 7:22 pm

#27 Kübler-Ross Phase 2 Soon to Come
———————–
Exactly,

As I have said many times: when it hits the fan, it is going to be smelly and messy, so safe distance is advised for the observers.

‘Boom’ as Steve Carell (Mark Baum) said to the audience in ‘The Big Short’ after which (emphasis mine) comes the unbearable long lasting smell.

It is coming folks!

#53 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.16 at 7:24 pm

#26 The American on 08.07.16 at 5:27 pm
At #4: MF, you asked, “If the US is doing so well, then why is there no real spillover effect on Canada?”

The Canadian economy is completely in the shitter and nobody in your country wants to acknowledge it.
————————
I do.

I can live in the s…thole but I am leaving for the sake of my kids.

#54 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.16 at 7:25 pm

I can live in the s…thole but I am leaving for the sake of my kids.
——————-
I meant the economy, not the country and the people.

#55 WallOfWorry on 08.07.16 at 7:32 pm

http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/vancouver-leads-the-world-in-property-value-increases-again

Lots of postings on this blog suggesting that housing prices starting to fall…who knows? Surely they can’t keep going up the way that they have?

I will say this: the only thing that will lead to a meaningful correction is if the US starts on a path of steady interest rate hikes. If Canadian mortgages languish around 2.5% for fixed 5 year prices will not suffer significant decline. With the stunning jobs report there is no excuse for the US to not raise rates in September and December, and another 3 – 4 times next year. But who really believes that they will?

#56 Smudgekin on 08.07.16 at 7:49 pm

Hi folks middle-aged working stiff here. Was looking at some ol photos of Toronto’s lakefront. Circa hundred years ago.plenty of heavy industries from ship building to textiles and grains. Rail lines everywhere to heavy industries like bike lanes today .Toronto sure MADE plenty things back then… Sure there were downers like industrial grime & lake pollution, Typhoid & Yellow Fever. You just drank beer to be safe. Wonder what they’ll make of it in another century? You know – this world class, culturally diverse city with homogeneous towers?

#57 Mark M. on 08.07.16 at 7:53 pm

“The US deficit is not historic, as is Canada’s…” – Garth

Factory orders in the US are down for the 20th straight month, never before in history has this happened. Does this seem like an economy that needs cooling off?

“As for rate increases, the consensus seems to be one more later this year, a couple or more next year. The consensus for 2016 US GDP is 2%.” – Garth

How accurate has the consensus view on interest rates been over the past two years? How accurate have GDP forecasts been?

This contention of yours, and it’s parroted by utterly senseless posters like WalMark and The American, is that for the first time in the history of the Fed, rate hikes are appropriate for an economy growing at 1%. Numbers like this would ordinarily lead to rate cuts, not hikes.

#58 Context on 08.07.16 at 7:56 pm

I am now seeing indications of the FED hiking in the fall as inflation is building in USA. Students graduating from colleges and universities are being hired in the $50,000 to $150,000 range briskly for example as the economic climate is changing. This tells me things are looking positive for corporations to hire again.

#59 Smoking Man on 08.07.16 at 7:56 pm

The USA job stats out last week are complete BS.

All part of the anyone but Trump movement. If the herd thinks economy good going into an election they tend to vote for the incumbent party.

If the USA was doing as great as the stats claim. You would see much better CAD exports.

And your not. Sept 11 2001 a building feel at free fall speed that was not hit by a plane and no MSM outlet covered it… It was omitted from the official investigation.

So believe MSM, official reports from USA agency’s at your own parrel.

Trump with a landslide win in Nov. Can’t wait for Garths post on Nov 19 2016.

In shock. No one saw this coming…..

Well someone did. Print this and put on your fridge..

Globaliztion, illegal immigration destroys the middle class and suppresses wages in tear 1 countries.

And Trump’s rhetoric lifts this hidden truth to the surface for all to see.

Landslide win… Just watch…

#60 Shawn on 08.07.16 at 7:59 pm

Oxymoron spotted above at post 37 by common sense who said:

Excellent ZH article today

******************************
Excellent and Zero Hedge don’t go together. It’s a doomer site.

#61 AK on 08.07.16 at 8:04 pm

#28 Freedom First on 08.07.16 at 5:34 pm

“I will write here when I pull the trigger. It will be before Sept.”
———————————————————-
You are my hero…

#62 The Wet Coast on 08.07.16 at 8:08 pm

I’ve spent my life working in heavy industry. The last 20 years or so my job has been to drive cost out. That usually means automation. But also since pumps, motors and the like are so much better made they don’t fail as often. So fewer trades to keep stuff running. Forklifts now come with impact software. Bubba hits a pole the machine shuts down and he’s got some explaining to do. Maint costs drop by 60%. No more sleeping on his truck in the off shift as every move he makes is tracked. Take a 60 min coffee break…more explaining. We’re seeing the first forklifts that do not have an operator, all automated. Job losses, well they are about to become the norm. Where the hell this goes I have no idea.

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.07.16 at 8:17 pm

No need to follow graphs and charts.
Just count the amount of Alberta license plates you spot in one day on the streets of Vancouver, Toronto or Halifax…..
Alberta…..a “Have Not” province that finally gets to apply for equalization payments like Quebec and Ontario…..
Which raises another question……
When BC slides into “Have Not” status in the next few months and all the provices are financially ‘sucking” rather than “blowing’…….where’s the “equalization” money come from ?

#64 Dig Deep on 08.07.16 at 8:18 pm

Low interest rates put RE prices up; unemployment will bring RE prices down.

#65 Shawn on 08.07.16 at 8:30 pm

Productivity Increases Standards of Living

The Wet Coast lamented: We’re seeing the first forklifts that do not have an operator, all automated. Job losses, well they are about to become the norm. Where the hell this goes I have no idea.

*****************************************
That IS a problem for those directly affected.

But, overall, automation will increase living standards.

The Luddites famously worried about automation and smashed machines.

Farm labour work has dropped something like at least 90% in a century with automation.

My grandfather had a great job as a transatlantic telegraph operator in the 1920’s. But then technology made that job obsolete which harmed grampa but benefited most people.

It is clear that the wages of capital (the owners of the automated machines) will likely increase while the wages of labour may decline in many cases. Your mission is clear: Own companies.

Also, get highly educated. (See that your kids do if it is too late for you) And /or get a trade that will be among the very last automated and that is not flooded with workers. (Plumber, electrician, surgeon…)

************************************

#66 DM in C on 08.07.16 at 8:34 pm

Just got back from visiting the parents in Halifax for two weeks. Halifax is booming — in fact, the unemployment rate in AB is higher than NS for the first time in recorded stats.

I had a couple interviews while I was there. I’ll pull the pin on Calgary so fast it would make your head spin. It’s all about quality of life. Halifax has changed so much in the 16 years we’ve been gone, I can’t wait to go back.

Calgary is the place you go to work. Halifax you go to live. Tick tock.

#67 Thank you, Stephen Harper on 08.07.16 at 8:37 pm

Thank you, Stephen Harper. Not.

You gambled everything you could on one trick ponies, the Alberta oil industry and real estate.

In spite of climate change and a clear need to diversify.

Our manufacturing base was allowed to decay and die.

How’s that all working for us now?

Stephen, you douchebag bully, you were an economic ignoramus and an idiot.

Why are conservatives always such complete financal morons?

#68 Dr. Nonplused, Phd., Economics, Psychology, and Gender Studies on 08.07.16 at 8:37 pm

The human mind believes itself to be rational and intelligent. And while yes, the human mind is smart enough to solve a Sudoku puzzle, or at least some are, the truth is that human intelligence is simply a tool available to humans to get what they want, which is being driven by deeper desires that lurk much below the conscience. It is these animal desires that drive most decisions, not a rational analysis of the facts.

For example, all animals want to eat. Humans are intelligent to have observed ways to improve food production using their intelligence at a scale no other animal can. Yet we aren’t smart enough to know when to say when so now we are all fat.

The other thing to note about human perception of the world is that it is at best partial, and in some cases completely delusional. And it’s also mostly relative. So for a generation that has always lived pay check to pay check and deeply in debt, no other way to live seems obvious. Even well paid professionals who should be able to do better max out their mortgages and lines of credit. The culture we live in is one of spending not only all you make, but all the banks will lend you as well. You get used to what you know and you think it’s normal. After living one pay check away from disaster your whole life you stop worrying about it. After all, nothing has happened so far.

An analogy can be made to the nuclear arms race in the 60’s. At that time students were being taught how to hide under their desks in case of a Soviet attack, so great was the fear. But those were little bombs available back then, and while they may have destroyed society temporarily they weren’t a threat to life on the planet. Fast forward to today and the number of bombs, delivery systems, and the yield of the weapons has increased orders of magnitude, such that not even the cockroaches will survive an all out war. Yet nobody worries about it anymore and our leaders actually talk of “winning” such a confrontation, they are so deluded themselves. Well, if we can remain so cheery and optimistic in the face of nuclear annihilation of the entire planet, certainly financial annihilation can’t be so bad, can it?

The human mind is also not so good at planning for tomorrow. This also should not be surprising because living to see tomorrow after you stopped working is a relatively new phenomena, not well ingrained in the human mind. Studies have shown that part of the reason people don’t save for retirement is because they cannot associate that “old person” as actually being themselves one day. They see their old self as someone else, much as you would any other old person. This makes sense because for the vast majority of human existence, you had to work, fight, rape and pillage until you died and if you made it to 35 you did pretty well. So the human mind isn’t well set up to think too far ahead. Surviving this next assault by the neighboring tribe was a much more pressing threat.

All of this is contained in a paper I wrote titled “Live For Today, For Tomorrow We Die – The True State Of The Human Thought Process, Plus Some Studies In Gender Relations And How They Relate”.

So, from an anthropologic point of view, it must be considered that not only humans but almost all other animals live day to day, and always have. We have not overcome that trait, evolution doesn’t work that fast and it’s only been a few hundred years since the need or ability to do so has existed. Heck you can hardly get a new breed of dog that fast, and this is a much bigger change we are looking for. Something no other animal has achieve beyond a 1 year time frame (bears and squirrels preparing for winter, as examples, but I know of no animal besides man that plans more than 1 year out, and most of mankind does not even plan that far ahead).

My research shows that the only people who plan for the future are those that come into some sort of windfall of money, either through a successful business venture or maybe stock options or some other form of luck, and aren’t creative enough to spend all the money as fast as it’s coming in. Lottery winners are good subject matter to study in this regard. Many lottery winners who win a modest sum, say less than $2 million dollars, are usually far worse off some years after winning the lottery than they were before. This is because they quit their jobs and transition their career from whatever work they were doing and economizing the proceeds to spending the money as fast as they can think of ways to do so. If the winners were rational (which I contend they are not or they wouldn’t even be playing the lotto), upon winning they would immediately call Turner Investments and totally rewrite their retirement prospects, indeed it would be a big upgrade to their entire life. But instead they drop by the Porsche dealer. “A child thinks $20 and 20 years cannot be spent” (Ben Franklin I think). A modern child thinks $2 million cannot be spent and unfortunately these are adults.

#69 Freedom First on 08.07.16 at 8:37 pm

#61 AK on 08.07.16 at 8:04 pm

#28 Freedom First on 08.07.16 at 5:34 pm

“I will write here when I pull the trigger. It will be before Sept.”
———————————————————-
You are my hero…

FF007

I know. I get that all the time. Fortunately my shoulders are broad enough to carry the burden of being a hero, a god, to so very very many.

Solve this riddle and you will increase…

“Why does the dove swim backwards like the fish?”

#70 common sense on 08.07.16 at 8:38 pm

#60 Shawn

Hey now. I didn’t say the SITE was excellent…just some articles, just like the one mentioned…BUT I’ll believe this site and some ZH, David Stockman 99 times more than most main stream BNN, MSNBC pap, bs.

Nobody knows the future, a lot of predictions everywhere..it’s anyone’s choice to pick and choose what they deem real and ya pay your money and you take a chance..

Everybody has an angle .Just sayin.

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.07.16 at 8:43 pm

@#32 eartboundmisfit
“@28 Freedom First …… I’m sure I won’t be the first to have noticed, but you, sir, are an a$$hole.”
********************************************

Anyone who is willing to risk their own money to benefit financially is hardly and a$$hole…….
Being successful and bragging about it…..well…..thats another story.

P.S. Whats with your “EnvironmentalBondageAnarchist” moniker?

#72 amazon girl on 08.07.16 at 8:46 pm

Amazon girl

I want that puppy , so I can call him smokey,grab him
kiss him and give him some JD …..

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.07.16 at 8:52 pm

@#62 Wet Coast
“Where the hell this goes I have no idea….”
********************************************
Lazy, stupid people will be unemployed.
They will eventually live off social assistance.
They will meet other unemployed people exactly like themselves.
They will have multitudes of babies.
They will vote for Donald Trump.
They will have more babies.
They will serve on juries.
They will smoke cigarettes.
They will have more babies.
They will never work again.
They will never contribute financially to “the system”. They will complain that the govt doesnt pay for even more cigarettes.
They will surf the internet and discover this blog……..

I need another cigarette and the baby’s diaper is full…..

#74 Students Sleep on campus - homeless on 08.07.16 at 8:56 pm

Not cool BC. Letting down the future

http://www.cknw.com/2016/08/06/education-or-housing-but-shelter-says-student-neednt-have-to-choose/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/priced-out-of-rental-market-simon-fraser-students-sleeping-on-campus/article31291389/

#75 The Wack on 08.07.16 at 8:56 pm

I agree with first part of the “smoking man” no opinion of the rest though

Before we go “rah rah” Merica!

Have family in the states, they say job stats are BS, unemployment rate is more like 10% cause they don’t count people that have given up looking for work.

Oh and there’s a small matter of 20T of debt, not the best shinning example.

We may be a bit of a basket case, USA just a bigger one!

#76 Rexx Rock on 08.07.16 at 8:56 pm

With 20 trillion dollars in printed money and have the worlds reserve currency you can have good jobs every quarter and a high flying stock market.With Europe falling apart,Japan is basically finished. and China slowing down can you see the black swans in the sky ?

#77 Derivatives on 08.07.16 at 9:00 pm

Anyone concerned more about the health of the derivatives market (10–20 times the global economy) than the Canadian real estate market?

http://www.bis.org/statistics/derstats.htm

#78 Linda on 08.07.16 at 9:05 pm

Just to clarify, I’m NOT the one shopping for condos in the GTA.

Deficit chart – why is June being singled out? isn’t the fact we’ve been in a trade deficit situation (if I’m reading the chart correctly) since August/September 2014 more important? Not a pretty sight, for sure. As for the realtor chart pertaining to Cowtown, is this based on actual numbers or estimated sales (or lack thereof) projections being made the the RE board? This is the problem when an entity or person fudges the facts all the time. IF they are actually telling the truth for once, who the heck will believe them? Especially if it is a truth that no one wants to hear. Going to be a while yet before those who own those overpriced bits of pressed cardboard admit that maybe they shouldn’t have gone all in…..

#79 The Wet Coast on 08.07.16 at 9:08 pm

#65
Productivity Increases Standards of Living

Historically your right but this time jobs are being eliminated faster than they are being created. We simply do not need the same number of people we once did. The days of having a grade 12 and landing a good paying job at a sawmill or pulp mill are over. But that’s not the limit. Why do we need pharmacists, pilots, taxi drivers, truck drivers and so on. Most of what the family doctor does could be more consistently done by sensors and programming. What is coming (and is already here) is huge and unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.

#80 Tony on 08.07.16 at 9:16 pm

Re: #58 Context on 08.07.16 at 7:56 pm

From what I’ve read from dozens of sources students are graduating with record debt and no jobs. Some lucky ones got jobs for minimum wage.

#81 I dont believe anything the gov. tells me on 08.07.16 at 9:22 pm

So you say 255k jobs in the land of the free , and then there is this .
WHO DO I believe ?
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/08/05/another-phony-jobs-report-paul-craig-roberts/

#82 White Crock BC on 08.07.16 at 9:30 pm

The Wack on 08.07.16 at 8:56 pm

I agree with first part of the “smoking man” no opinion of the rest though

Before we go “rah rah” Merica! Oh and there’s a small matter of 20T of debt, not the best shinning example.

=================

Just not important.

$20t?, Who cares? Not the pols, not the S&P, not the Forex markets, no one… they can do what they want.

US June trade deficit= USD$44b or CAD$57b.. does anyone care? Nope.

Does anyone dissect the jobs figure out of the US to see how many full time jobs with benefits were lost and replaced with McJobs? Nope. Not important.

#83 Context on 08.07.16 at 9:31 pm

#80 Tony :- Go to the Kitco Gold site and read gold loses out to stellar US jobs reports.

#84 Chase on 08.07.16 at 9:37 pm

This market is still crazy. Went looking at a house in Bradford (15min south of Barrie). Was 600k, sold for 690 a day after listed. Another sold 100k over its 600k asking in a few hours. Haven’t seen this thing slow down yet personally in my area.

A friend of mine my age (30), bought an 800k home, and new beamers. Their income is only 120k combined. They can barely get by but they see this as a good thing. I make more than that myself and can come to the idea of spending that much on a place.

I don’t understand how people like being in so much debt.

#85 Millenial on 08.07.16 at 9:38 pm

It’s now 5 consecutive quarters of declines in S&P 500 year-over-year earnings-per-share.

#86 I dont believe anything the gov. tells me on 08.07.16 at 9:42 pm

Paul Craig Roberts tells it like it is…. a Man of Integrity.
Come on Garth be straight with us , no more b.s. on how great it is in ” In the land of the Free” Bawahhhhhahhhh !
BOC on Sept 7 will announce interest rate cut .25% following BOE.

#87 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.16 at 9:53 pm

Re: #58 Context on 08.07.16 at 7:56 pm

From what I’ve read from dozens of sources students are graduating with record debt and no jobs. Some lucky ones got jobs for minimum wage.

——————

It is absolutely horrific job market for new grads
1. Governments are not hiring, there is hiring freeze at every level of government except few police and firefighter entry level jobs.

2. Private sector is absolutely enjoying and driving down entry level wages to minimum wages, I was deadly serious talking about PHDs and MBAs making minimum wages working in retailt.

Spoke to a friend of mine who got 200 (two hundred) resumes in a day for entry-level-very-low-paid IT job (supposedly hot job market)

The student debt is one factor, the second is the fact that the job market is so horrific at peak debt, I can’t imagine what will happen when the credit market implodes (and implode it will). Absolute devastation and depression comes to mind as very mild options in my mind.

#88 common sense on 08.07.16 at 9:56 pm

#81 Believe..

Always believe the gov’t..they would never, ever lie.

#89 MF on 08.07.16 at 10:09 pm

#26 The American on 08.07.16 at 5:27 pm

Perhaps. But the trade stats don’t really back it up too much. Why? Probably the huge misallocation of capital into useless real estate.

#37 common sense on 08.07.16 at 6:39 pm

Agreed. Is it me or does it seem like every time Trump seems to get ahead in the polls a little some new job report “blows past” expectations ?

#38 Context on 08.07.16 at 6:42 pm

Are you a realtor? According to realtors, EVERY area is up and coming.

#40 Cici on 08.07.16 at 6:43 pm

Interesting take. Never considered that perspective. Thank you for that.

#46 Context on 08.07.16 at 7:12 pm

I live in Vaughan. House on my parent’s street (which they bought in 1993 with zero mortgage) was listed for some joke price like over a mil….crickets and now it’s been delisted. A real red hot market alright.

MF

#90 Dee on 08.07.16 at 10:11 pm

$23k/year in fees, taxes, and special assessment? I live in a condo townhouse in trendy Leslieville and pay less than that in rent. And that’s before we talk about burning money on interest and tying up capital in down payments/etc.

Invest the $1.7 mil, embrace renting, and save money. Goodness, we have lost our way.

#91 Context on 08.07.16 at 10:28 pm

#89 MF :- Never sold a house in my life but took the full course to pick up girls in my classroom.

#92 MF on 08.07.16 at 10:29 pm

#49 Moron Face on 08.07.16 at 7:17 pm

Not exactly. Remember any publicity is good publicity. Trump has started a movement that will only get stronger. If he doesn’t win this election, there will be another Trump.

It doesn’t even matter what he says anymore. The movement is for people who have realized the dangers of creeping leftist socialism from “progressive” and elite globalist politicians like Merkel, Hillary/Obama etc. With them It’s all debt, low interest rates, bubbles everywhere, terrorism, conflict, and collectivism…all for the benefit of a few. Just look at the utter failure that is the EU to see where it all leads.

#53 Sheane Wallace on 08.07.16 at 7:24 pm

Lol a little harsh. Canada is definitely not a Chithole (i know you meant economically). The economy is not good and there will be pain when real estate collapses, but I am happy with my life and so are most Canadians.

#67 Thank you, Stephen Harper on 08.07.16 at 8:37 pm

Where were you in 2008/9. Harper was hailed as the savior. How quick we forget. Don’t worry though. T2 will spend another 10 billion from our future so that single mothers can receive more welfare cheques and kick start the economy.

#59 Smoking Man on 08.07.16 at 7:56 pm

I agree. The jobs report is BS. Someone sounds scared.

MF

#93 Livingthedream on 08.07.16 at 10:33 pm

Ross Kay interview – a must listen. Coincides with everything Garth is saying.

Ross’ interview starts at the 22.00 minute mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdfFACK47Xo

#94 Shawn on 08.07.16 at 10:41 pm

The Age of Leisure Cometh?

#79 The Wet Coast on 08.07.16 at 9:08 pm
#65
Productivity Increases Standards of Living

Historically your right but this time jobs are being eliminated faster than they are being created. We simply do not need the same number of people we once did.

************************************
Sounds like people won’t need jobs. The machines will do it all. Excellent.

Distribution of wealth and re-distribution will be THE contentious topic of the next 30 years.

Will the owners of the machines (share owners) be allowed to continue to compound wealth over generations or will it be taxed away?

Meanwhile, invest in equities to grab your share if you can possibly afford to. Earn income from employment while you can but also build up earnings from investments.

#95 Wild Albertan Gonads on 08.07.16 at 10:43 pm

So can T2 outdo T1 with debt… sure gonna try…

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpQ9_VcXYAEM_6y.jpg:large

#96 Credit Bubble on 08.07.16 at 10:47 pm

The FIRE sector has ruined Canada. Canada has NO ECONOMY left all thanks to these uneducated criminals. There is no more economy but RE. People are maxed out and borrowed with their fake equity to buy so called “investment properties” that are cash flow negative. Canada has deluded themselves to the point where they don’t think declining exports and increasing imports matter. We will just buy and sell and build RE. If and when this falls it will be epic. I just hope the RE industry get charged and locked up for this outright fraud. If CMHC would open up their books; liar loans would make up the majority of approved loans based on fiction. No economy left in Canada and the FIRE industry cheers.

#97 Auzzie cut rates and increased interest on deposits on 08.07.16 at 10:48 pm

Our counterpart downunder is going downunder.

Are we next?

http://www.businessinsider.com/australias-banks-just-did-something-so-strange-it-smelled-of-panic-2016-8

#98 ihavenoname on 08.07.16 at 10:51 pm

Canada – USA … why are the economic numbers so much better in that US of A? Because they are ALL made up.
USA market cap. of ALL publicly traded companies is around 18 trillion $$. Corporate debt there is almost 7 trillion $$, government debt is almost 20 trillion $$ now, not to mention the 56 trillion in unfunded liabilities and 250 trillion in derivative debt.
Sooo….the next person who thinks Canada is in such a bad shape compared to that US of A should be made to move there for educational purposes…. but has to learn to lie and nothing but lie first.

#99 SWL1976 on 08.07.16 at 10:56 pm

I put about as much stock in those US jobs numbers, as I do franken-numbers from those house pumpin, house humpin realtors.

The writing is on the wall for the US and has been for quite sometime. However, most are still in denial about the reality of the situation. One cannot take an honest look at the mess and really say, or think that things are getting better.

Really???

Their federal election is between a straight up criminal who has known links and ties to the criminal banking elite that really run this F-ed up show. Also, her being married to a former president shows just how little choice Americans really do have. We,re no better with a generational political family calling the shots.

Free Country???

Anyways, back to the election. Between a straight up criminal and lunatic demagogue whose real motive for running for president is likely nothing close to what his redneck, can’t see past my front porch, support base would like to believe

And to think America was once a beacon of hope the world over for freedom and liberty. Those days are long gone and the path to tyranny has been paved with lies and make believe that the almighty US can print its way to prosperity through infinity with their petrol-dollar printing press that has been the cause perpetual war since Europe was liberated from what America is now becoming

Great recovery

#100 Smoking Man on 08.07.16 at 11:12 pm

Countries are ready to go to war to protect there energy markets.

In Canada we are ruled by stupid mindless teachers who are clueless. Wynee, T2, imploding and destroying our resource industry on purpose.

Every socialist experiment through out history has ended up in disaster…..

You would think T2 a history teacher might have learned something. To busy smoking weed with Butts in university and worshipping Suzuki and All Gore…

#101 Arb Watson on 08.07.16 at 11:19 pm

As the tulip salesman said “This time is different.”

Well every bubble that runs on debt and leverage ends in tears at some point. It is simply human nature. History never fails especially economic history.

#102 Arb Watson on 08.07.16 at 11:25 pm

I don’t understand how people like being in so much debt.

Its because they perceive debt as an ability to acquire nice things without having to save for them.

#103 Arb Watson on 08.07.16 at 11:30 pm

I would also add that balanced portfolio will suffer loses at some point in the future once another financial crisis rolls around. Make no mistake that financial crisis will keep occurring as the global economy runs on leverage. Keep in mind that cash is also a position when things hit the fan. Timing is everything in today’s financial markets.

In the last crisis a balanced portfolio went down less than half of equity markets and recovered in a fraction of the time – exactly as designed. Wise investors snoozed through it. — Garth

#104 acdel on 08.07.16 at 11:32 pm

#81 I dont believe anything the gov. tells me

So you say 255k jobs in the land of the free , and then there is this .
WHO DO I believe ?
—————————————

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts gets my vote; he knows the truth..

Sure, as opposed to the people who have the actual stats. Tinfoil alert. — Garth

#105 jay on 08.07.16 at 11:47 pm

https://www.memphisdailynews.com/news/2016/aug/8/steady-hiring-is-now-benefiting-a-broader-group-of-americans/ How long until interest rate’s rise and the Canadian dollar goes into the toilet.

#106 Smoking Man on 08.07.16 at 11:56 pm

#104 acdel on 08.07.16 at 11:32 pm
#81 I dont believe anything the gov. tells me

So you say 255k jobs in the land of the free , and then there is this .
WHO DO I believe ?
—————————————

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts gets my vote; he knows the truth..

Sure, as opposed to the people who have the actual stats. Tinfoil alert. — Garth
…….

If your going to wear a tinfoil hat proudly. Make sure it’s a big ass Fedora just like mine.

Bulding 7 Sr. Gartho…..

You know, and I know, and the world knows. Just not good for business wearing one of these monstrositys out in public….

I love my tin foil fadora…. Makes making good bets easy.

But I never take it out of the house…

#107 Arb Watson on 08.07.16 at 11:58 pm

Right the balanced portfolio went down less and recovered. Let’s not forget as well that the financial markets seized. If it wasn’t for the trillions of dollars that was pumped into the financial markets and rescues of financial institutions that took place I would speculate that the recovery of that balanced portfolio would probably be much different. All I am saying is that even assets in a balanced portfolio can be overpriced.

#108 Arb Watson on 08.08.16 at 12:04 am

As far as unemployment number is concerned. It is reported consistently and it follows certain methodology. Now you may agree or not but in economic terms its a pretty reliable statistic. Now all the other variables are simply an opinion such as labor participation rate. I mean you would have to do extensive surveys to see if people who fell off unemployment really are looking for a job. If part time workers really want a full time job.

#109 Arb Watson on 08.08.16 at 12:08 am

OK let’s say you have a scenario where prefereed shares, ETFs, REITs and bonds have overextended themselves how would you be able to rebalance?

#110 NorthOf49 on 08.08.16 at 12:20 am

You can now include Hamilton and Burlington in the list of markets experiencing a pullback. Over the last few years, Hamilton and Burlington remained relatively immune to any real estate downturn. Cheap housing stock and a steady inflow of Toronto buyers allowed prices to continue rising and kept inventory low. The usual realtor tricks of the trade (bidding wars, media pumping, etc.) helped ensure a frothy market. Not so much anymore.

Ham-Burl residential freehold sales were 6.9 per cent lower than July 2015 while condo sales decreased by 12.1 per cent. Residential listings were down 14.3% compared to July 2015 helping to drive average sale price up 13%.

Burlington took a much bigger sales nose dive than Hamilton. Residential freehold sales there fell 16% vs July 2015 while condo sales decreased by 12.4 per cent. Residential freehold listings dropped 30.8%, presumably because no one there can afford to buy back into the Burlington market. Average YOY sales price increased 28.1% to $803,422!

The Realtors Association did their best to put lipstick on this pig.

http://www.rahb.ca/2016/08/heat-remains-in-local-real-estate-market/

#111 millenial1982 on 08.08.16 at 12:44 am

We haven’t had it truly that bad here yet, in any sense. That’s our problem but soon it will be our turn and change will come for the worse and eventually work out for the better. We have a proactive crew here at greater fool but human nature is predominately reactionary. That’s why we come here to shake our heads at the fools and keep coming back for the same neck workouts day after day. So the trade deficit sucks. We need to look at this in a competitive sense like a national sporting event to rally the average joe. It’s the only way to make a boring subject interesting to them. If they understood the game and consequences there might be a chance but nobody will listen or look until the Dire straights.

#112 James on 08.08.16 at 12:53 am

#92 MF

Harper inherited the strong banking and capital regulations that kept Canadian banks from being over-leveraged in 08/09. A hallmark of his Conservative Gov’t was the sort of deregulation that got the US into such hot water.

#113 45north on 08.08.16 at 12:56 am

mike leblond: from your link: Hexun was a little more blunt, stating the Government of Canada “must introduce policies to cool the property market, or face collapse,” further adding that “this crisis threatens the stability of [the Canadian] financial system.”

that’s my feeling but that’s the last thing the Government of Canada is going to do. I mean it’s just not.

Wet Coast: Forklifts now come with impact software. Bubba hits a pole the machine shuts down and he’s got some explaining to do. Maint costs drop by 60%. I worked at Gliddens Paint Factory. I remember a single fork lift pulling a wagon train as it snaked its way through the factory.

Living the Dream: from your link: Ross Kay said the decline in BC prices isn’t going to show until February ( 2017 ) when you will see an unbelievable drop in prices. This drop will come just before the election in May. He also said the drop in sales will take $7 billion out of the BC economy.

#114 A Yank in BC on 08.08.16 at 1:00 am

#28 Freedom First
“I will write here when I pull the trigger.”

Nobody gives a damn what you do. Get over yourself.

#115 Calgary Boomer on 08.08.16 at 1:23 am

While I don’t doubt anything you say I do know that I see lots of houses going up for sale and they all have sold signs in no time in Calgary. Somebody’s buying them! I don’t see a problem so far; No “Calgary Death Watch”

#116 fishman on 08.08.16 at 1:35 am

You’d of thought T2 being a history teacher would have learn’t him something? Your slipping SM. Lenin, Pol Pot & Mugabe were & are history teachers, with degrees, just like T2.

#117 Spectacle on 08.08.16 at 2:26 am

Regarding ::

#69 Freedom First on 08.07.16 at 8:37 pm

Noted, “Solve this riddle and you will increase…”- “Why does the dove swim backwards like the fish?”

With respects, …because they do not know which way the river flows.

#118 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 3:19 am

#32 earthboundmisfit

Yes. Yes I am. And so are you.

#119 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 3:28 am

#43 Freedom First

That was a pretty good reply :)

I have put you on the list, #43 Freedom First, to be my new Fan club President. Well done!

#120 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 3:47 am

#61 AK

Yes. Thanks! Mine too.

#121 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 3:50 am

#69 Freedom First

#69. You will have to step it up, or you will be DELETED from my Fan club. I will not stand for members of my “Freedom First Fan Club” making me, the “real” Freedom First, look good.

#122 VanDammeCouver on 08.08.16 at 4:28 am

Garth, a quick question sir. You espouse liquidity and not having too much of your net worth in real estate, which you’ve drilled incessantly into my head over the years, and I thank you for that. Your recommended balance portfolio is liquid and spits out tax-preferred income from things like REIT’s and preferred’s, thanks for that as well. My question is, how protected are retirees in this liquid portfolio if the big D shows up? Should we keep a certain amount of money in cash, say two years worth, in case an unforeseen trigger brings out deflation, liquidity dries up for a period of time, and cash becomes king? Thanks in advance (only if you answer :)

#123 NoName on 08.08.16 at 4:34 am

interesting read

“Because if policy makers seeking to address inequalities misunderstand the problem, their solutions could be wrong, ineffective and costly. Based on his inequality theory, Mr. Piketty has proposed progressive wealth taxes, a measure some economists argue could harm economic growth.”

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/05/no-empirical-evidence-for-thomas-pikettys-inequality-theory-imf-economist-argues/?mod=WSJBlog

#124 Zen Headspace on 08.08.16 at 6:36 am

“Always have a Plan B. And love liquidity.”
——————————————————————–
Why won’t they listen to your advice Garth?

I guess they really are greater fools.

“Knowing ignorance is strength.
Ignoring knowledge is sickness.”
~ Lao Tzu

It’s all so very disheartening.

#125 fancy_pants on 08.08.16 at 7:39 am

risk is everywhere.

The Fed doesn’t know what it’s doing. This is all an experiment with them. They just decided to print more money, drive interest rates to zero, and see what happens. There are going to be profound consequences of this giant delusional experiment.

http://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-was-nothing-compared-to-whats-coming-2016-8

More alarmist crap from then bullion-lickers and doomsters at The Daily Reckoning. Fear sells. Don’t buy. — Garth

#126 Felix on 08.08.16 at 7:42 am

‘Not so hot’ is so right – yet another pic of a mentally defective mutt. What else is new?

Today is WORLD CAT DAY!!!

Mark the day with proper respect.

Don’t screw this up, Turner. :(

http://www.cute-calendar.com/event/world-cat-day/16386.html

#127 AfterTheHouseSold on 08.08.16 at 7:52 am

#97 Auzzie cut rates and increased interest on deposits

Thank you for the link. Very interesting and disturbing as the banks appear to be ‘circling the wagons’.

Something is afoot and if we see this in Canada, we’d be wise to have our ‘Plan B’ in place.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.08.16 at 8:29 am

@#97 Auzzie cut rates and increased interest on deposits …
*******************************************

A W…T…F… moment indeed.

The last, desperate attempt to salvage a housing bubble implosion.

#129 Renter's Revenge! on 08.08.16 at 8:37 am

#109 Arb Watson on 08.08.16 at 12:08 am
OK let’s say you have a scenario where prefereed shares, ETFs, REITs and bonds have overextended themselves how would you be able to rebalance?

Do some yoga

#130 acdel on 08.08.16 at 8:48 am

#106 Smoking Man

I went with the cone shaped one; I seem to get better reception with it, plus it keeps the neighbors at bay from borrowing my stuff because they are too cheap to buy there own. :)

#131 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 9:11 am

Donald Trump would impose a temporary moratorium on new federal regulations and revive Transcanada’s Keystone pipeline project, according to an outline of an economic speech Monday obtained by Reuters.

Trump’s proposals include measures to simplify taxes for everyone and dramatically reduce the income tax and to “remove bureaucrats who only know how to kill jobs; replace them with experts who know how to create jobs,” according to the outline.

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/trump-would-freeze-new-federal-regulations-revive-keystone-speech/
………….

You would think T2 would be over the moon knowing Trump would get keystone back on track.

Wrong…. Butts won’t let him…..

#132 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 9:11 am

#114 A Yank in BC on 08.08.16 at 1:00 am

#28 Freedom First
“I will write here when I pull the trigger.”

Nobody gives a damn what you do. Get over yourself.

FF007

Welcome to our humble country dear friend. The zen master welcomes you, you are welcome indeed. As my Yiddish Buddha used to say, “a country of twigs has no measure of pain, follow the twig and your peace will be sure.”

#133 Freedom First on 08.08.16 at 9:26 am

#129 Renter’s Revenge! on 08.08.16 at 8:37 am

#109 Arb Watson on 08.08.16 at 12:08 am
OK let’s say you have a scenario where prefereed shares, ETFs, REITs and bonds have overextended themselves how would you be able to rebalance?

Do some yoga

FF007

Yes. Yogurt. I find this to have a great calming effect on me as well.

#134 liqudincalgary on 08.08.16 at 9:36 am

MF on 08.07.16 at 4:00 pm
Linda Linda…you should have put 5% down on that 1.7 million dollar condo. Heck you should have offered 1.9 million. It doesn’t matter since you will sell in a few days and make thousands of profit!

======================================

oh yes…and all of it taxable!

#135 Prairieboy43 on 08.08.16 at 9:46 am

“Don’t we all? The nation’s in denial. Sleepwalking.” GT

Yes, sums it up. Financial illiteracy everywhere. What is Responsibility? People need to experience pain. Then dig themselves out from the ashes. Some will make it, some won’t. Survival Fittest.
No Pain, No Gain.

PB43

#136 liqudincalgary on 08.08.16 at 9:48 am

Damifino on 08.07.16 at 6:20 pm
That trade deficit graph is the most sobering thing to appear on this blog in quite some time.

Downright scary. I wonder if T2 knows…

=====================================

trudy jr? he’s too busy surfing and photo bombing (shirtless no less) in BC

#137 liqudincalgary on 08.08.16 at 9:51 am

Freedom First on 08.07.16 at 7:01 pm

=======================================

asinine

#138 TurnerNation on 08.08.16 at 10:14 am

From the Duck and Cover dept.

G20 in Toronto State Agents used the threat of a “Black Bloc” for mass arrests and beatings. And stood down in downtown core allowing cars set on fire.

#139 TurnerNation on 08.08.16 at 10:17 am

Continued. …security bill was 1 billion billed to us natch.
Funny how this ooh soo scary sounding Black bloc never was seen or heard from again.

Paid agitators. I have a relative overseas who was one. Youtube video exists which shows him causing ruckus then jumping back behind police lines.
They all are in same fraternal order. Hoodwinked us.

#140 Kenchie on 08.08.16 at 10:29 am

#81 I dont believe anything the gov. tells me on 08.07.16 at 9:22 pm
“So you say 255k jobs in the land of the free , and then there is this .
WHO DO I believe ?
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/08/05/another-phony-jobs-report-paul-craig-roberts/

CERTAINLY NOT PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS! He’s an idiot doomer with nothing ever to say that’s minutely positive. Can the US economy be negative only month-in, month-out for the past decade? NOPE!

Everyone knows it’s a survey. Read the methodology if you’re confused. 23% unemployment rate? What the fuck he is going on about? That makes even less sense than 4.9% unemployment rate. At least the survey counts people who “leave the work force”. If you add them back, it’s still not 23%!

#141 Parsonage on 08.08.16 at 10:40 am

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz

.where’s the “equalization” money come from ?

Hear T2, between his wedding crashing photo ops, is trying to peddle an Annexation Request in Washington … State perhaps? Any port in a storm.

#142 LL on 08.08.16 at 10:50 am

“So I’m shopping for a condo townhouse in Toronto and the woman who owns one I like, listed at $1.65 million told me not to ‘waste her time’ if I’m going to offer less than $1.7. The taxes and condo fees on this thing are $18,000 a year and it has a $5,000-per-year special assessment for the next four. I hate what this market is doing to people…”

Who can buy/afford this? A rich foreigner I guess!

#143 Setting the Record Straight on 08.08.16 at 10:53 am

That Stephen Harper
Not only did he ruin Canada but Australia as well — the big bet on housing and iron ore.

And I understand he advised Brazil as well.

#144 Moron Face on 08.08.16 at 11:02 am

Trump has deliberately thrown the election. He never wanted to win. For the duration of the campaign, he will attempt to mitigate damage to his brand.

#145 Julie K. on 08.08.16 at 11:04 am

Looking for the ultimate recession proof and growth industry to invest in?

Death Care.

Think about it.

One I’d recommend = NYSE: SCI

#146 Aggregator on 08.08.16 at 11:14 am

Sask. government to make farmland ownership, enforcement changes

The Saskatchewan government is introducing changes that will dictate who can own farmland in the province.

You can expect many more provinces to follow. This is a tax grab, nothing else.

#147 BOOM! on 08.08.16 at 11:35 am

Interesting to read the comments in this day’s blog…..

Well, as an American who had spent a good deal of working time in Canada let me make the following observations, and comparisons. Both are excellent countries. Both have inherent ‘issues.’

America has a more defined ‘have vs have not’ appearance, not quite as apparent in Canada. Much harder to find the weak side of Toronto than Buffalo.

North Bay vs Duluth no difference there, both too dam cold!

Canadians pay a much higher tax rate on earnings, and much higher ‘sin’ taxes than we do. (maybe we sin better??) Neither country is worth a shit at savings these days, Canada has had a better savings rate historically.
What happened? Don’t know.

Regarding employment stats. Don’t know for sure. Employment has historically been ‘local’ like Real Estate, and yes we have our expensive hoods, like you. We had company over the weekend, our son’s high school chums and their wives. Both in IT, both doing quite well as early 40’s Gen-Xer’s. Everybody they know gainfully employed.
Everybody has a home, kids, bills-but not overwhelming bills!

Right now, employment ‘locally’ seems quite high. Sand mines have been adding personnel, local manufacturing has been steady to growing, no layoffs since last year when the sand mines cut back. Ag sector on track for a great year (hence lower prices – always). Trucking busy, and looking to expand. Lots of people have new(er) vehicles. Yes, anecdotal report, but … What is there, NOT to like?

As for stats, and comments:

Whether “official gov’t statistics” or the “opinions” of Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, or Regan’s reject budget director David Stockman, just remember every article was written by an entity with an agenda. The “truth” probably lies somewhere in between….

Pleasure, and Pain seem to be more manufactured, or self-induced these days. From my little perch, life appears pretty good for my fellow humans.

Go, and live likewise…

#148 Damifino on 08.08.16 at 11:45 am

Fear sells. Don’t buy. — Garth

The same goes for sex.

#149 Moron Face on 08.08.16 at 11:51 am

Pref shares have bottomed in Canada – so interest rates have bottomed. CPD.

#150 Braj on 08.08.16 at 11:59 am

@ #68 Dr. Nonplused, Phd., Economics, Psychology, and Gender Studies on 08.07.16 at 8:37 pm

One of the more insightful posts.

#151 Victor V on 08.08.16 at 12:06 pm

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/scuttled-property-deals-legal-risks-mount-from-vancouvers-foreign-property-buyer-tax-its-a-domino-effect&pubdate=2016-08-08

British Columbia’s decision to impose a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers to cool Vancouver’s scorching housing market is poised to derail more than 400 deals worth millions of dollars and may prompt calls for legal action.

At least 427 deals are likely to collapse due to the new measure, according to Dan Morrison, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, citing responses from 27 brokers to an e-mail inquiry. The group didn’t calculate the value of those sales, though they would be worth about $404 million based on the average purchase by a foreign buyer of $946,945.

That may just be the tip of the iceberg.

#152 Alex N calgary on 08.08.16 at 12:11 pm

Its tough to see things happening. Just watched that Movie, The Big Short, last night, wow so good! I kept pausing it and forcing my wife to listen to me blather on about how they might as well be talking about the Canadian market (in certain parts anyways, do we have Subprime CDO’s?) I keep meeting people who’ve been laid off here, A nice woman in her 40’s the other day from HR at Apache energy, no work since last year. A guy I know, 40’s, got laid off from Husky, has work now on contract working on abandoned pipelines in Berta, oh dear! People still buying houses, our house horny friends just got one, even after just getting out 8 months ago, they just couldn’t hold off from the slight dip in prices right now.

Keep up the good work, I forgive you for pushing investments, why else put in all the effort of the blog.

#153 Victor V on 08.08.16 at 12:25 pm

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/ottawa-doling-out-funds-at-slowest-pace-in-five-years-despite-flagging-economy&pubdate=2016-08-08G

In total, Trudeau’s government estimates its 2016 measures will bolster growth by 0.5 percentage points, and that could be enough to lift the economy out of its slump in the second half. Investors, for example, don’t expect the Bank of Canada to come up with any more help on top of Trudeau’s fiscal push. Trading in interest-rate derivatives shows the odds Governor Stephen Poloz will cut before the end of the year moved higher after Friday’s reports — but are still only about 20 per cent.

#154 NoName on 08.08.16 at 12:36 pm

holly $#!+, Bitcon bail-ins.


Due to the indiscriminate nature of the attack, we have decided to generalize losses across all accounts. Upon logging into the platform, customers will see that they have experienced a generalized loss percentage of 36.067%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-08/bitcoin-bail-ins-and-yuan-bets

#155 45north on 08.08.16 at 12:46 pm

aggregator: The Saskatchewan government is introducing changes that will dictate who can own farmland in the province.

ownership of agricultural lands in Saskatchewan and across Canada is becoming more concentrated. That is big companies are buying and running the farms. Which nobody likes. The bill doesn’t do much.

this clause: When financing a purchase of farmland, all financing must be through a financial institution registered to do business in Canada, or a Canadian resident Well so what? I mean if a big company buys a farm and it gets a mortgage from the Royal Bank, then that’s perfectly legal. The last bit “or a Canadian resident” pretty much waters down the whole bill.

#156 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 12:46 pm

Trump killing it in Detroit.

Great speech. Cut Corp taxes down to 15% from 35%.

Deduct child care.

Remove DOD Frank bull shit.

The 5% official unemployment rate complete bull shit.

Boom

#157 Context on 08.08.16 at 1:09 pm

#145 Julie K:- Death Care? You got me doing some preliminary research and apparently in Toronto there is no zoning for what I had in mind and was amazed that the nearest location is Hamilton. There may be an opportunity here for someone to start up a new business operation without any competition as the demand will be great or the page I was looking at is wrong. There are no pet cemeteries to service the public except in Hamilton, so correct me in this regard.

#158 Victor V on 08.08.16 at 1:21 pm

There’s been a lot of terrible economic news in recent weeks. At what point does this become a problem for Justin Trudeau?

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/dont-look-now-canadas-economy-is-getting-ugly/

#159 President McMullin on 08.08.16 at 2:12 pm

Crazy Trumpetters.. I’m taking you out.

#160 46 and 2 on 08.08.16 at 2:37 pm

#158 Victor V

What you expect from T2 other than a complaining princess for a wife and selfies?

Remember what he is….a drama teacher with no political experience.

The recent sale of the ENTIRE Whistler/Blackcombe ski resort to the USA based Vail group is just another sign that Canada is up for sale and Canadians are just plain stupid.

Sorry, but it’s true.

#161 bdwy sktrn on 08.08.16 at 2:37 pm

#91 Context on 08.07.16 at 10:28 pm
#89 MF :- Never sold a house in my life but took the full course to pick up girls in my classroom.
———————————————

WELCOME BACK ***Old Man***!!!!

you (still) were sure a ladies man back in the day, you foxy old coot!!!

where ya been these last few years?

#162 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.08.16 at 2:38 pm

I kept pausing it and forcing my wife to listen to me blather on about how they might as well be talking about the Canadian market

I’m sure that increased her enjoyment of the movie

And of your company

#163 bdwy sktrn on 08.08.16 at 2:40 pm

#158 Victor V on 08.08.16 at 1:21 pm
There’s been a lot of terrible economic news in recent weeks. At what point does this become a problem for Justin Trudeau?
————————–
problem? what problem?

he still has that dreamy hair and likes to hug.
there is no problem.

economy??? they don’t talk about that on entertainment tonight, so, uh , no idea what u r talking about.

#164 46 and 2 on 08.08.16 at 2:46 pm

#156 Smoking Man

So if he cuts taxes by this much nationally where is he going to get the missing revenue?

Create new jobs for the middle class…how? You think that Wal mart is going to buy in to increasing costs to support Trumps plan to get the low to middle class working?

Wal mart and others will tell Trump to f off so fast it will make your head spin.

And…what is the USA debt, what deficits are they running nationally?

Trump has made a career conning investors/bankers and now the con continues.

The man is delusional, plain and simple.

#165 LP on 08.08.16 at 2:51 pm

#157 Context on 08.08.16 at 1:09 pm

There is one on Highway 6, north of Guelph, between Guelph and Fergus.

#166 Brazil ex-pat on 08.08.16 at 3:08 pm

#143 Setting the Record Straight on 08.08.16 at 10:53 am
That Stephen Harper
Not only did he ruin Canada but Australia as well — the big bet on housing and iron ore.

And I understand he advised Brazil as well.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You need to understand…….Stephen Harper has never taken his orders from Canadians…..do some research.

#167 Brazil ex-pat on 08.08.16 at 3:09 pm

#159 President McMullin on 08.08.16 at 2:12 pm
Crazy Trumpetters.. I’m taking you out.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ignorant Hillarities…….whom have never seen the movie Clinton Cash.

#168 Brazil ex-pat on 08.08.16 at 3:11 pm

#151 Victor V on 08.08.16 at 12:06 pm
http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/scuttled-property-deals-legal-risks-mount-from-vancouvers-foreign-property-buyer-tax-its-a-domino-effect&pubdate=2016-08-08

British Columbia’s decision to impose a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers to cool Vancouver’s scorching housing market is poised to derail more than 400 deals worth millions of dollars and may prompt calls for legal action.

At least 427 deals are likely to collapse due to the new measure, according to Dan Morrison, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, citing responses from 27 brokers to an e-mail inquiry. The group didn’t calculate the value of those sales, though they would be worth about $404 million based on the average purchase by a foreign buyer of $946,945.

That may just be the tip of the iceberg.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

427 huh? I think most of the 2,000,000 residents of Metro Vancouver will be playing the teeny tiniest violins for these foreigners…..

#169 Jack on 08.08.16 at 3:11 pm

Garth

You got something backwards – the trade deficit, or rather more broadly the current account deficit, represents a net inflow of capital into Canada (and not an outflow of capital as you stated). The current account deficit represents a net increase in Canada’s foreign indebtedness.

#170 Mr. Frugal on 08.08.16 at 3:14 pm

#156 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 12:46 pm
Trump killing it in Detroit.

Great speech. Cut Corp taxes down to 15% from 35%.

Deduct child care.

Remove DOD Frank bull shit.

The 5% official unemployment rate complete bull shit.

Boom
________________________________________

MSM in full panic mode. If the herd stops long enough to listen to Trump they might wake up and that will be the end of the great Globalist scam.

#171 Context on 08.08.16 at 3:19 pm

A lot of new listings rolling out and one caught my eye on Yorkville near Avenue Road. Its a high rise condo 1+1 selling for $469,000. I know this location well and that is a 1999 year price range. Eh?

#172 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 3:24 pm

#168 Mr. Frugal on 08.08.16 at 3:14 pm
#156 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 12:46 pm
Trump killing it in Detroit.

Great speech. Cut Corp taxes down to 15% from 35%.

Deduct child care.

Remove DOD Frank bull shit.

The 5% official unemployment rate complete bull shit.

Boom
________________________________________

MSM in full panic mode. If the herd stops long enough to listen to Trump they might wake up and that will be the end of the great Globalist scam.
…………

I have benefited greatly from Globalization and NAFTA. It’s really going to hurt my cash flow and Tax future farm gigs down south if Trump wins.

But inside my head lives a crazy anarchist with a very low boredom tolerance, probably from my rivet bucking days.

#173 Victor V on 08.08.16 at 3:49 pm

[VIDEO]’The rich will pay their fair share’: Trump overhauls income tax proposal

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/news-video/video-trump-overhauls-income-tax-proposal/article31308935

#174 Smoking Man on 08.08.16 at 3:53 pm

#164 46 and 2 on 08.08.16 at 2:46 pm
#156 Smoking Man

So if he cuts taxes by this much nationally where is he going to get the missing revenue?

Create new jobs for the middle class…how? You think that Wal mart is going to buy in to increasing costs to support Trumps plan to get the low to middle class working?

Wal mart and others will tell Trump to f off so fast it will make your head spin.

And…what is the USA debt, what deficits are they running nationally?

Trump has made a career conning investors/bankers and now the con continues.

The man is delusional, plain and simple
……………………………

Hes going cut lefty jobs, especially all the climate change bs ones. Fire up the coal plants, make power cheap again. Make America Great again.

#175 S.Bby on 08.08.16 at 5:23 pm

#145 Julie K.
Do you know what happened to Loewen Group?

#176 46 and 2 on 08.08.16 at 5:34 pm

#174 Smoking Man

Whatever you say, I’m sure the multi-national big box stores will go along with whatever smoke and mirrors the Donald uses.

Like I said before, it’s a damn good thing that the president of the USA really does not have a bunch of power over anything, especially a leader that is pretty much hated within his own party….let’s see how all of THAT goes in congress.

Passing any bill will be next to impossible.

Well the USA has not had a clown as prez since bush jr. so maybe the cycle starts again.

#177 acdel on 08.08.16 at 5:38 pm

#147 BOOM!

Good insight, thanks for your comments.

Most people do not believe the U.S. numbers, graphs, charts, are actually manipulated to what ever number they wish most tin foil haters (according to a few) wish to believe. The underlining fact is that the U.S. is 20 trillion in debt and growing; seriously, how can anybody ignore that????
Sure, there are arguments that they own the currency and stock market world and keep printing money to support their habits,then what? There are so many out there that see through this disillusion; as I have mentioned many times on this blog; the truth will arise after the election.

#178 Context on 08.08.16 at 5:58 pm

There was a time that one bought a condo to live in but not anymore. Speculation abounds in Yorkville too, as there are too many being rented out and even ghost hotels are there. When this bubble blows there will be many surprises afoot never seen before.

#179 salonist on 08.08.16 at 6:00 pm

habitat 67
inside views of current properties for rent and sale
http://www.mtlblog.com/2016/08/what-6-different-1000000-apartments-looks-like-in-montreals-habitat-67/?utm_source=Daily+Digest+Subscribers+MTL+Blog&utm_campaign=2afc709fde-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_851c62c913-2afc709fde-99684845#

#180 Barb on 08.08.16 at 6:15 pm

146 Aggregator on 08.08.16 at 11:14 am

Sask. government to make farmland ownership, enforcement changes. The Saskatchewan government is introducing changes that will dictate who can own farmland in the province.
———————————————————-

A new Combines Act? *grin*

#181 Metaxa on 08.08.16 at 6:49 pm

While we go on about manipulated numbers, need for lower taxes, etc. I ask this:

Who has controlled the House and senate in the US for the past 8 years?

If the numbers are manipulated don’t you think the GOP would have been all over that?

Adding Trump to the toxic mix that is the current GOP will solve what exactly?

#182 Ignorance Is Bliss on 08.08.16 at 8:49 pm

Thanks for the articles:
#74 Students Sleep on campus – homeless
#97 Auzzie cut rates and increased interest on deposits
#158 Victor V
All interesting reads. The first one really tells on a human level the devastating impact of a city with rent prices completely out of whack with the financial realities of the populace actually living there. The second article gave me pause on whether to pull out my tin foil hat and read something else into it. The third article was about Canada’s worsening economy and when T2 will need to answer for it…I am wondering the same. Renewed my mortgage for 1.99% for 2 years but think maybe I should have gone variable again. I also don’t see rate increases in the future with the way things are going.
The comments section here is just as valuable as the insight Garth provides….

#183 Dan on 08.09.16 at 4:45 pm

Well I live in Mighty North with all that crap about fire in our hearths, ice in out weins and draft in our brains and unemployment rate last twenty years is about 7% in general which is solid unemployment rate of third world country. Period. But PT without a shirt? Priceless.

#184 Dan on 08.09.16 at 4:52 pm

And for people who hate Trump… You got had because mainstream media try to explain to you that you are progressive when you hate Trump. But Trump cannot be worse than Truman, Nixon, Regan, Bushes. Those were evil people who greased the plank for Empire…
In case that Trump prevail, watch again that media and then spit on them with great enthusiasm…

#185 Tudval on 08.10.16 at 12:58 am

There are very nice townhomes selling for 900k, good locations.. so why should I care that somebody who only finds one she likes at 1.65 mil thinks there’s something wrong in this market or city?