Puffed up

PARROT modified

It’s been a few years now since you were handed some advice: don’t bet against America, lighten up on your maple, diversify into US$, cuz the beavs are losing it.

Hope you listened. When our dollar was worth an actual dollar and US real estate was unloved and unsold, the message was clear: go, and buy. This gift shall not pass this way again. Hope you listened to that, too.

Of course, most people didn’t, won’t and never will. Over 70% of investors have 100% of their stuff in Canadian securities, while most of the middle class has made a huge, leveraged bet on a single fixed asset. Meanwhile, not a day passes when this pathetic blog isn’t overrun with puffed-up little patriots dissing the US, claiming it’s about to sink into a debt-infused recession and everybody there is unemployed, on food stamps, or out buying ammo.

Sure, there’s a lot in the world for us to worry about. But America isn’t on that list. Not even the stock market makes it. Anyone who hasn’t been fully invested this year in a balanced and globally diversified portfolio has a fool, or a wimp, for an advisor. The S&P has gained 6.8% this year, Bay Street is ahead more than 12%, with REITs and preferreds and even bonds clocking in gains.

Now look what the latest data is telling us.

The US turned out 255,000 new jobs last month, with another 292,000 created in June. This keeps the unemployment rate at 4.9%, which is now considered full employment, or the ‘natural rate’ of unemployment (some people just don’t want to work, or can’t). The jobless rate there has collapsed by 50% since the recession. Better yet, people are earning more – finally. The year/year increase in hourly earnings is 2.6%, while the economy as a whole is projected to growth this year by 2%.

Now, compare that to us. First, sit down. It’s bad.

In June we lost, net, less than a thousand jobs (while the States added 292,000). Last month it was a disaster – 31,200 fewer people working. Worse, 71,400 full-time paycheques were wiped out, with 40,200 of them replaced with part-time jobs. Less pay, fewer benefits, reduced security, more stress.

As a result, the Canadian dollar lost about a cent. Ouch. Combine that with the hostile, foreigner-go-away tax just adopted by BC, and you can imagine where our country’s image is headed. Oh yeah, we’re also facing a record trade deficit.

Investors were okay, however, as equity markets roared ahead – in the US because more jobs and higher wages mean more consumer spending and corporate profits, and in Canada because things are getting so bad the central bank will probably have to cut rates and throw money around. The real losers are likely to be those who have shoved all of their net worth into inflated houses, in the midst of an economy which is shedding jobs and going backwards.

If you think a quarter-point cut in the Bank of Canada rate will save housing, think again. We’ve hit a debt wall, and five-year mortgages at 2.5% or less are unlikely to trail lower. Even so, look at the wobbly markets chronicled here during Misery Week. The narrative is clear.

Well, the canyon between the US and Canada continues to yawn like that between the 1% and the rest. Our economy is shrinking. Theirs is growing. We are losing serious jobs. They’re creating them. Cheap commodities hurt us. They help Americans. We’re heading for recession. They’re not. Our dollar is whacked. The greenback’s ascending. True, they have Hillary and Trump. We have Rona and Justin. And Notley, Clark and Wynne.

The best defence is a volatile world, living in a vulnerable nation, is to not have all your eggs in one basket. The growth portion of your balanced portfolio (60%) should be two-thirds non-maple. You should supplement the growth with real estate investment trusts, and ensure you have exposure to large, medium and small-cap companies through broad-based ETFs. Don’t shun fixed-income just because rates are low, since having some bonds (Canada, provincials and corporate) will lower volatility and also add value when stocks drop. Meanwhile preferreds pump out a 5% dividend and hand over a tax credit.

Time and again the doomers and pantywaists have been proven wrong. The real risk is running out of money, not losing it. Especially for women. Nesting is toxic, too. But I’ll never win that argument.

And now, another new guy!

Blog dogs got to nibble on Ryan Lewenza last Saturday, a know-it-all portfolio manager with Turner Investments who is still nursing his wounds six days later after becoming a GreaterFool guest blogger. Now my other partner, also a buttoned-down, fancy Bay Street dude and portfolio manager, Doug Rowat, is about to make the ultimate sacrifice. His inaugural piece will appear here tomorrow, as this pathetic blog fulfills its promise to operate seven days a week. May God be with him.

135 comments ↓

#1 Jimmy on 08.05.16 at 6:46 pm

First!!

#2 ChristyClark on 08.05.16 at 6:47 pm

We’re going to build a wall and it’s going to be great.

#3 Victoria Real Estate on 08.05.16 at 6:53 pm

It’s well know by now that sales of detached houses have crashed from year ago levels across Metro Vancouver.

The level of confidence in Vancouver’s housing market is also crashing.

What could possibly make this situation worse?

Two things:

First, it’s becoming widely accepted that the US fed will continue moving its key rate toward what it considers normal levels.

This, of course, means Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates will be moving higher as well and will be at or higher than 5% within 2 to 3 years.

Buyer confidence will ratchet lower as rates ratchet higher.

Second, the Metro Vancouver crash tax will not only eliminate a lot of the fear of missing out among buyers but it will also drain confidence from the market.

It’s probably safe to say that Vancouver’s housing market problems have officially begun.

And if you’re narrow-minded and naive enough to think that Vancouver’s price decline will be like Calgary’s so far (key phrase: “so far”), then think again.

In 2008-09, house prices in Vancouver fell at a rate of 14.2% per year (for 10 months) until interest rates were suddenly slashed from near-normal to emergency levels.

. . . . . Vancouver House Prices. . . . . .
. Percent Below July 2008 Price Level . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . .July. . . . December. . . . May. . .
. . . . . 2008. . . . . 2008 . . . . . 2009. . .

(source: Teranet’s house price index)

In 2009, Vancouver’s (crashing?) housing market was rescued by emergency rates.

Canada already has emergency rates. No potential source of stimulus even close to that powerful remains to be used to stop falling prices.

This time there will be no effective market rescue.

#4 Lulu on 08.05.16 at 6:54 pm

Yeah, we are heading to a cliff for sure, lots of ppl lost their job and we are not creating any new one, may be just part time or contract (if you are lucky), for those who has a mortgage, headache is their new best friend, RE can still be purchasing, just not in the GTA or Vancity, go a bit further and see clearer. I personally like Port McNicoll!

Come on, Doug, good show tomorrow!!

#5 bubu on 08.05.16 at 6:56 pm

In the mean time Calgary real estate is 10% higher than last year….. Highest unemployment since ’94 but nothing happens to real estate…. nothing will happen in Vancouver or Toronto or in any of the big Canadian cities….

#6 Apocalypse2016 on 08.05.16 at 6:56 pm

Absolutely catastrophic job numbers. Such a plunge in summer, when stats are typically propped up by increased seasonal employment, is a disaster.

Canada is heading into a deep recession and then depression.

Rio is starting a nightmare today which will rapidly spread.

Britain is imploding visibly, on a daily basis.

The Summer of Hell is going to drown out everything else.

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.16 at 6:57 pm

Poor Doug.
Swimming naked with the piranahas tomorrow………even when they nibble……its worrisome.

#8 BOOM! on 08.05.16 at 6:57 pm

Well… Fresh Meat tomorrow! That should be interesting.

I have listened to Doug’s input on the weekly call for quite a while, seems a reasoned, wise, and learned guy.

They are the hardest to shred, but thankfully, everyone blows it once in a while.

Good post. Perhaps if T2 and his hand selected could cut back on the weed use they might more clearly see the dire dilemma much of their idiocy has accounted.

Oh that would be WAY to easy….

Lots of bad choices need to be unwound, It will take more time than most will believe.

#9 common sense on 08.05.16 at 6:58 pm

100% correct…The US is doing well compared to us and every other country.

As long as interest rates are near zero, foreign central banks buy US stocks and bonds in record numbers (as never seen before in history), the robust 2% growth rate will continue.

As for the job numbers posted today in the US..are they believable? Just compare them to even 2014…let’s see the adjustment before September.

#10 Frank on 08.05.16 at 7:05 pm

Real estate and jobs are local, guess which province just added the latter? Hint: the one where the former is going crazy.

So educate me. In 2010 US real estate was 40% off and rates were low. If you were an employed American and bought a house, 6 years later your house has gone up 30% in value while you paid nothing in interest. Does such a situation seem possible here? If we see a drop in rates and a crash (hey can’t take advantage of them without a job) does that mean those of us with solid gigs should have some cash handy?

#11 Natives vs Europeans on 08.05.16 at 7:05 pm

In other news:

Since 2014 The US Has Added Half A Million Waiters & Bartenders And No Manufacturing Workers: Here’s Why

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-05/2014-us-has-added-half-million-waiters-bartenders-and-no-manufacturing-workers-heres

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.05.16 at 7:06 pm

@#6 Apocalypse 2016

You forgot to mention that Trump is the antichrist, God has forsaken us AND there’s free popcorn at tonights showing of (your favourite hero movie) Suicide Squad.

You’re slipping

#13 Randy Randerson on 08.05.16 at 7:07 pm

You’ll never win against nesting instinct, because it’s emotion. Logic will never prevail against emotions, and they say men and women are equal in every ways.

#14 Freedom First on 08.05.16 at 7:08 pm

Me Myself I, Me Myself I, Me Myself I, Me Myself I….did I forget to tell you I am humble and keep a low profile? Me Myself I, Me Myself I……

#15 Batten down the hatches... on 08.05.16 at 7:09 pm

Thanks for telling us how to protect ourselves financially Garth.

Since the Labour Force Survey precedes the GDP report by a month, the September GDP report for July ought to be ugly…I’ll take 0 growth as a positive omen.

Looks like its the “R” word taking hold in our economy.

#16 Millenial on 08.05.16 at 7:15 pm

I really hope to be surprised by an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September. But I’m not holding my breath.

#17 JP on 08.05.16 at 7:18 pm

USA #1

#18 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 08.05.16 at 7:19 pm

US GDP at 3% for 2016. Not gonna happen cause they would need 3%+ for the next two quarters and it has been years since that has happened. Any way the trend n GDP is down for the US since it peaked in Q3 2014.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm

#19 Parsonage on 08.05.16 at 7:22 pm

Meanwhile Tims on the #1 in Golden BC can’t find enough employees to keep the Drive thru’s open.

#20 Smoking Man on 08.05.16 at 7:22 pm

DELETED

#21 Suede on 08.05.16 at 7:28 pm

The most important economic factor – confidence.

US has awesome data, but low confidence. Their stock will continue to rise with confidence increasing.

Las Vegas hotels and party costs are through the roof from last year, year before, and 2 years before.

You want an economic heartbeat of disposable income, look there.

In Canada, we have shitty data and all signs pointing to slowdown and melt… yet it’s not happening.

Why?

Vancouver and Toronto markets are uber confident.

When confidence erodes (through help of MSM or MIL’s or BIL’s) then you better have actioned your backup plan.

#22 Longbranch Pete on 08.05.16 at 7:31 pm

You people aren’t worried about America?

We’re talking about a nation unironically considering to elect Hillary Clinton as commander in chief.

She hails from a dynasty so indebted to foreign tribes and cartels that she is willing to carry out all of their demands.

These people have left behind basic notion of self-preservation long ago.

#23 Basil Fawlty on 08.05.16 at 7:35 pm

Todays US job numbers are not what they seem. They are for the most part cheap labour positions. These jobs created are not decent paying manufacturing, or construction positions. The majority of leading economic indicators in the US are pointing downwards toward recession.
Just look at the fall in the readjusted GDP figures for Quarters 1 and 2. Look at the labour participation rate, the % of the population owning a home is at the lowest ever. Income inequality is at the worst ever. Students with massive debt can’t find work in their fields. Auto loans for 84 months, just to move cars.
In my opinion, the US economy is in terminal decline, even though the stock market is going up, as corporations borrow cheap money and buyback there own shares.
I would rather be labelled a doomer, than a unicorn chaser.

#24 Form Man on 08.05.16 at 7:44 pm

#11 Longbranch Pete

‘unironically’ ………?

#25 Smoking Man on 08.05.16 at 7:48 pm

Garth

Urinals or hemorrhoids . We’re does your weekness lie.

#26 46 and 2 on 08.05.16 at 7:54 pm

Don’t ever forget….the USA President does not really have that much absolute personal power over the matters that govern the USA.

More than a figurehead for sure…but not much more.

#27 Blacksheep on 08.05.16 at 7:59 pm

Rosie #187,

#173 Blacksheep

“As for the system choosing Clinton, well maybe they know best.
———————————
You’ve displayed, you understand the how the American Republic functions.

Thats Good.

I hope your an American, that way, you will get the exact leadership, you deserve.

#28 BOOM! on 08.05.16 at 8:06 pm

Something doesn’t ‘add up’ tonight.

US DOW rises 191.48 points…NASDAQ rises 54.87 S&P rises 18.62 interest rates ticked up 0.08 on the 10 year…

My numbers register a measly gain of $500. Hmmm…

Best review my own allocation again, that seems ‘weak’ for that size of a move. Things could be a tad mis-aligned again.

#29 Rexx Rock on 08.05.16 at 8:07 pm

BC and Ontario is still booming and I guess that is what really matters in Canada.Here in Victoria the land of milk and honey,low paying jobs are everywhere.Home owners keep bragging about their house assessments going up every year.I also noticed lots of Albertans moving here and quite happy with all the jobs for tradesmen.
On another note we can thank the financial terrorist Poloz for continuing lowering rates to debase our currency,inflate the housing bubble and lower our standard of living.I hope our dollar stay above 70 cents.

#30 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.05.16 at 8:08 pm

Hope you listened. When our dollar was worth an actual dollar and US real estate was unloved and unsold, the message was clear: go, and buy. This gift shall not pass this way again. Hope you listened to that, too.

That was your best call Gartho. By far. Woulda set anybody up for life if they followed thru

#31 Andrew Woburn on 08.05.16 at 8:10 pm

I usually slightly overpay my routine bills like phone or hydro by about a month’s worth so that if I forget, I won’t be too much behind. Sometimes I forget or get the numbers slightly wrong.

On Aug 3, I got a call from the BC Medical Services Plan for late payment. I owed $16 which was due on July 27. Yes, they were on my case 6 days after due date. Who says government can’t move fast?

Then I remembered the same thing happened in the spring for about 20 bucks overdue by a week. As a taxpayer, I should be delighted with such efficiency but my paranoid part says, are they so tight for cash they need my $16 bucks right now? Have any other BC blog dogs run across other examples of extreme government cash flow management?

#32 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.05.16 at 8:11 pm

Oh yeah, we’re also facing a record trade deficit.

canada hasn’t been a net exporter forever. Basket case

#33 mathman on 08.05.16 at 8:13 pm

Garth is bang on, things are bad and have been for sometime but the numbers are normally lagging. In a normal market, Calgary would be off 30% at this point given the employment picture, but two things are happening rates are so low people can hang on for considerably longer than other periods in history and all the six figures earners are still living off their severance packages or their savings, which in either case will run out. Watch leasebusters, kijii etc and see the firesale on toys in Alberta. First sign.

I can’t speak for VAN, but on the ground in the 6 – housing has gone past dillusional. People in the last 3-5 years have taken on debt that they will never pay back, if you took the long term 5 year mtg rate and calculated the amt based on that am’s woud be 50 years plus.

this will go down as the biggest gasbag in history and ruin the Canadian economy in the process – CMHC will prove to be grossly mismnaged and underfunded and in the process we will all be asked to pony up for the rampant irresponsibility.

I’m not even sure if people on this blog understand the full extent of the knock on effects of having real estate drive 20% of our GDP. Were pooched and the smart ones will leave.

#34 Context on 08.05.16 at 8:14 pm

Everyone needs an ice cream cone in this hot weather so go and see Garth’s store. Its much more than ice cream being sold as this is really an old fashion country store with must see products on the self. No doubt a tourist attraction so do stop and look around. I can see in years to come an extension with a small bistro restaurant playing the blues.

#35 crossbordershopper on 08.05.16 at 8:39 pm

10 year canadian bonds at 1%. if it drifts down to .5 to .6% we could be in trouble.
a low growth low inflation world. Canada is in the middle of it.
mortgages could be in the 1.75 to 1.99% irange at the variable rate, i think thats where we are headed. buck and half interest rates,
our polish govenor is going to crack open his book if we actually go to zero.
why doesnt anyone talk about private business. the ccpc tax rate is 12.5% in sask. after all expenses. tfsa rrsp etc dont mean anything, i dont know why anyone doesnt talk about the owner operator getting dividends instead of salary , and the changes to the cpp and effect on owners net worth at retirement. real insight.

#36 Arfmooocat on 08.05.16 at 8:42 pm

#5 bubu on 08.05.16 at 6:56 pm
In the mean time Calgary real estate is 10% higher than last year….. Highest unemployment since ’94 but nothing happens to real estate…. nothing will happen in Vancouver or Toronto or in any of the big Canadian cities….
………………………………………………………………………

I live in Edmonton and I wouldn’t touch real estate in this titanic province. Were an FN mess… my unemployment ends next week (extension included) and I’m white collar applying at ImPark.

#37 Mark M. on 08.05.16 at 8:49 pm

Awesome jobs data out of the US today, now I’m certain of those four rate hikes coming this year as promised seven months ago. I think they may even squeeze in that second rate hike from last year the weather and China kept them from doing.

#38 Smoking Man on 08.05.16 at 8:52 pm

#16 Millenial on 08.05.16 at 7:15 pm
I really hope to be surprised by an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September. But I’m not holding my breath.
…….
like hats going to help you snowflake

BOC bitch

#39 Damifino on 08.05.16 at 8:54 pm

#13 Randy Randerson

“Logic will never prevail against emotions, and they say men and women are equal in every ways.”
———————————

I’ve known men who wear their hearts on their sleeves and women cold as stone.

#40 Smoking Man on 08.05.16 at 8:56 pm

Nictonights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRcPA7Fzebw

#41 Lead Paint on 08.05.16 at 8:59 pm

Good work #1 Jimmy!

Perhaps tomorrow you can be first for Doug’s first post.

That will make 2016 a very successful and special year for you.

I’m rooting for you.

#42 Willem on 08.05.16 at 9:07 pm

We don’t have to rely on rising interest rates to slow and deflate the housing market. Two days ago I was in to see my excellent [email protected]; the green one. And she told me on that day she had received 5 mortgages declined by head office and that this was becoming the norm unless you had flawless proof of income and credit worthiness! So, just forget about the prospect of interest rates rising; the banks are finally getting real, motivated by fear of the dangers in this ponzi market

#43 Freedom First on 08.05.16 at 9:12 pm

May God be with him.

FF007

I am here. As a zen master, I have ascended to a position of God status. I will watch out for him and be available if he calls.

#44 waiting on the westcoast on 08.05.16 at 9:18 pm

Garth – you need to make sure your Bay Street dudes did an undergrad in English instead of Economics… That will help with the with witty repartee. ;-)

Why is there so much hate on for Freedom First? Personally – I find his forthright honesty about what he wants and what he is prepared to give up for it… refreshing!

I think most sheeple spend most of their time trying to make their significant other fit their vision of what they want in life. That is far more debilitating and damaging than telling someone exactly where they stand and what they want.

#45 Shawn on 08.05.16 at 9:19 pm

Apocalypse No?

#6 Apocalypse2016 on 08.05.16 at 6:56 pm said:

Absolutely catastrophic job numbers. Such a plunge in summer, when stats are typically propped up by increased seasonal employment, is a disaster.

************************************
Nice try but the numbers are already seasonally
adjusted.

A close family member of mine swooped in and bought a Florida house just over five years ago. A short-sale. Four bedrooms and a pool in a golf course community for about 200k. He was just about to turn 80. He has enjoyed the house ever since and its gone way up in value.

Back then a lot of doomers were saying U.S. house prices would go even lower.

But smarter people were scooping up bargains.

Apocalypse No.

#46 Freedom First on 08.05.16 at 9:19 pm

#14 Freedom First on 08.05.16 at 7:08 pm

Me Myself I, Me Myself I, Me Myself I, Me Myself I….did I forget to tell you I am humble and keep a low profile? Me Myself I, Me Myself I……

FF007

Do not dismay little one. My great knowledge has helped me to rise as a deity. I have no need for outside Gods to help or save me, for as a zen master, I am a God.

#47 WUL on 08.05.16 at 9:40 pm

I got to thinking today. That stat Garth mentioned two days ago on Calgary real estate sales numbers being at a 20 year low. In 1996 the population of the Stampede City in the Valley of the Bow was ~900,000. Since then, the pop. has grown by about 300,000 White Hatters.

Sheesh. Trouble in River City.

300K more people since Chris Phillips of Fort McMurray was drafted No. 1 over all by the Ottawa Senators and sales are back to that level.

We are facing some thorny issues out here.

#48 acdel on 08.05.16 at 9:42 pm

What part of all those who continue to propagate the U.S. economy that do not not seem to include the 20 trillion not billion but trillion and continuing debt, the great Americans will have to deal with sooner then later?

What a complete farce!~

Hook,line and sinker. :)

#49 paulo on 08.05.16 at 9:44 pm

welcome aboard Doug looking forward to your input;

after those us job numbers, i can just see janet yelling get my gun time to pull the trigger on the next .25 up don’t be surprised to see it in September
as for the Donald the fix is in he is road kill still time to make changes see rule 9 of the party rules book

hey garth much mention of us stocks, what about europe what do you think about spreading the balance to include some euro stocks in the portfolio ? say 20% of the offshore side.

#50 Interstellar Old Yeller on 08.05.16 at 9:48 pm

As both a worker and an investor, I’m glad to be inching farther and farther towards the investor end of the continuum. Looks like scratching out a living as an employee is going to get even less fun in the days ahead.

#51 Johnny d on 08.05.16 at 9:52 pm

Garth,

You’ve mentioned buying opportunities for maple assets before, particularily in the energy sector…

Is this something you still believe to be true or has that moment passed?

#52 Julie K. on 08.05.16 at 9:56 pm

Can’t wait to see if the new guy, Doug, is as hot as Ryan.

Who cares if he is smart or not.

#53 Ignorance Is Bliss on 08.05.16 at 9:57 pm

Mortgage renewal time! Should I go 1.99% for 2 yr. fixed, or 2.2% for 5 yr. variable? Would love to get some opinions. Time has run out on my very sweet 1.85% 5 yr. variable rate….they don’t offer those “sub prime” rates anymore, my bank tells me.

#54 jess on 08.05.16 at 10:09 pm

The Circle Game

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/business/dealbook/private-equity-housing-missteps.html

=========
When You Dial 911 and Wall Street Answers

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/business/dealbook/when-you-dial-911-and-wall-street-answers.html

#55 Jenny on 08.05.16 at 10:12 pm

Trudeau Liberals Economic Policy driving Canada into another Great Depression. The Liberals think if we ‘leave it all in the ground’ to satiate the American money men who fund our ‘Green Protest Cabal’ that they’ll get a photo op with Obama anytime he does a book tour through Ottawa.

http://www.bnn.ca/port-of-churchill-s-closure-stirs-calls-for-government-intervention-1.538802

Meanwhile, Canada is dying under the Trudeau Liberals

#56 Mark on 08.05.16 at 10:33 pm

“In the mean time Calgary real estate is 10% higher than last year….. “

Can I have some of what you’re smoking, please?

http://www.bnn.ca/port-of-churchill-s-closure-stirs-calls-for-government-intervention-1.538802

It was only a matter of time, especially with CN ramping up their efforts at Port of Prince Rupert.

#57 Context on 08.05.16 at 10:35 pm

All I have to say, if the FED pops the interest rate in the coming months it will be curtains for those in the GTA that didn’t sell out for those tax free dollars because it will be too late. Then the panic begins with decreasing home prices in competition with others to cut in order to find a market to sell into. The buyers will sit back and watch the circus.

#58 WUL on 08.05.16 at 10:44 pm

Life is good today.

I find it curious that a PhD Herdonomics (ex Hardrock Blueliner) was chosen to star in Zac Brown’s video for “Toes”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lB8Nkn3Xjes

#59 canuck on 08.05.16 at 10:47 pm

45 million on food stamps is considered full employment?
What was the GDP for the last quarter? Yes, America is roaring back… rolls eyes.

#60 Russ on 08.05.16 at 11:13 pm

We’re looking forward to hear from the new guy.

How about “August God be with him.” ??

#61 Russ on 08.05.16 at 11:19 pm

I hope Ben is gone to the cabin this weekend.

I’m sure if I hadn’t been drinking yesterday, I would have got a doozer of a headache reading that tripe.

Every generation is troubled and the narrative is, it was better in the good ol’ days.

Grow up and let ’em drop.

#62 Sheane Wallace on 08.05.16 at 11:19 pm

#35 crossbordershopper

Low inflation? You are definitely living in same parallel universe, not his one where everything is going up in prices by the month.

Only suckers, insurance companies and pension funds mandated by government buy CAD bonds, because they are ‘safe’.

The problem in this system is not running out of money, it is running out of idiots. Despite the big number (of idiots) idiocy has some limits and it seems we are rapidly approaching it.

#63 Bottoms_Up on 08.05.16 at 11:20 pm

#31 Andrew Woburn on 08.05.16 at 8:10 pm
———————————
Once it’s past due, it’s likely sent to debt collectors. So unfortunately it’s likely an inefficiency (a waste) rather than an efficiency…..

#64 Sheane Wallace on 08.05.16 at 11:23 pm

#53 Ignorance Is Bliss

Sell the house, convert all soon-to-be-useless-loonies into stable currencies and investments abroad and move out.

Having mortgage will not save you from what lies ahead.
Having partially paid for house in a country with no economy and jobs is not fun.

#65 Ronaldo on 08.05.16 at 11:36 pm

#31 Andrew Woburn

”On Aug 3, I got a call from the BC Medical Services Plan for late payment. I owed $16 which was due on July 27. Yes, they were on my case 6 days after due date. Who says government can’t move fast?”
—————————————————-

Except with paying their employees.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/phoenix-payroll-system-problems-court-1.3656600

#66 Ronaldo on 08.05.16 at 11:41 pm

#41 Lead Paint on 08.05.16 at 8:59 pm

Good work #1 Jimmy!

Perhaps tomorrow you can be first for Doug’s first post.

That will make 2016 a very successful and special year for you.

I’m rooting for you.
——————————————————

I’m rooting for Joseph, yeah baby yeah………….

#67 Looking to learn on 08.06.16 at 12:10 am

What is the equivalent in Canada of the US 2 and 10 year treasury yield. I’m asking so I can monitor if Canada gets an inverted yield. Can anyone help me with this info.

#68 Flo on 08.06.16 at 12:11 am

Garth,

I just wanted to say thank you. I took the plunge earlier this year and opened a self-directed RRSP. Following your advice, I bought ETF and built a balanced portfolio. I’m up 5.71% since February. I’m kicking myself for not starting earlier!

#69 @ #53 Ignorance Is Bliss on 08.05.16 at 9:57 pm on 08.06.16 at 12:14 am

I’d go for the 1.99% for 2 yr. fixed. In my opinion Canada is going to be holding onto very low interest rates for sometime. Even if I’m wrong, when you renew its not going to be that much higher.

#70 White Crock BC on 08.06.16 at 1:02 am

How about this as a reason Canada can’t create (or keep) jobs.

There are 1m Canadians living in the greater LA area. Another 350k in the greater SF area. I’m assuming there are similar numbers for NYC and other big US cities.

Once a Canadian achieves any degree of success, they’re southbound. Actors, engineers, physicians, musicians, architects etc. etc. The list is long and NAFTA makes it very easy to do it.

Why? We all know the answer to that: Higher dollar, lower cost of living, lower taxes, better weather, similar culture, same language and geographically very close.

No matter the RE bubble, T2 policies or any of that, we stand NO chance. There is nothing any Canadian government can do to ever level that playing field.

#71 Vampire Studies GMST 454 on 08.06.16 at 1:32 am

35 crossborder – as your small business is not eligible for the dividend tax credit, whether your take them or a wage may just be a wash. Check with your accountant.

Yes we pay both ends of the CPP on the wages. if the contribution goes up it may make sense to take the dividends and get a CPP holiday, and invest privately.

Apparently I’ve used up all my carry forward losses, and in combination with a better year, I will be making RRSP
contributions again. Glad I have the room.

#72 Tony on 08.06.16 at 1:43 am

If there was any recovery whatsoever in America we’d see a “spillover effect” in Canada. ‘The only spillover effect I’m seeing is America is clearly in a depression even worst than during the dirty thirties. Its amazing all the total lies that come out of America as they get nearer and nearer the November election. Why in the next month or so we’ll probably see a jobs report of 500,000 plus! Sadly the jobs numbers will all turn negative after the election and interest rates will turn negative.

#73 Tony on 08.06.16 at 1:51 am

#59 canuck on 08.05.16 at 10:47 pm

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

#74 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 08.06.16 at 2:04 am

Meanwhile, Canada is dying under the Trudeau Liberals

I called it here first. I said that T2 will preside over the collapse of the Canadian economy. Unfolding as predicted.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/dont-look-now-canadas-economy-is-getting-ugly/

#75 mouldy in YVR on 08.06.16 at 2:05 am

Lambs to the slaughter….have you no mercy Garth?

#76 Future Expatriate on 08.06.16 at 2:27 am

#22… that’s MADAME President to YOU.

My, won’t the righties just HATE eight years of US peacetime prosperity again. Lucifer forbid.

#77 Reality vs. Anecdotes (aka Denial) on 08.06.16 at 2:46 am

After 4 Misery posts of real data by Garth I still read personal/singular anecdotes of good times, made up facts and the Denial list goes on.

Here is the state of the Cdn. economy thus far in 2016 (Reality):

2016 Labor Force Survey | GDP:

Jan: -5,700 | +0.6%
Feb: -2,300 | -0.1%
Mar: 41,000 | -0.2%
Apr: -2,100 | +0.1%
May: +14,000 | -0.6%
Jun: -700 | Report due Aug 31
Jul: -31,000 | Report due Sep 30

2016 Net Gain in Jobs | GDP:

13,200 | -0.2% (annualized GDP = -0.48% in 2016)

The Jobs report (Labour Force Survey) leads GDP by 1 month. So, any bets on what the GDP numbers will look like for June and July, based on the Job growth numbers already in for those months (-700 and -31,000)?

This is an economy headed for recession. MSM ignores this data, giving it secondary at best headlines.

Last month 71,000 people lost full-time jobs…that is a lot of families in financial turmoil at present. But hey, #19 Parsonage provides a tip on high paying and unfulfilled Tim’s drive-thru jobs in Golden, BC…solace for the 71,000.

Again, thank you Garth for telling us how to navigate financially what is about to come.

#78 jane 24 on 08.06.16 at 4:20 am

Garth I laughed at your descriptor of many of our fellow Canadians as ‘puffed-up patriots’ as so very apt. I love my Canadian relatives and friends but they are very set on Canada being the centre of the universe and the best place to live in the world, despite never reading international news or having travelled anywhere at all, other than Florida.

When I ask why they don’t explore our exciting world, they say that they can’t afford too but truly do not see the irony in that response. A shame as many Canadians would benefit from global travel and seeing the world through other’s eyes. They wouldn’t have voted for Trudeau Junior for a start!!

#79 Kenchie on 08.06.16 at 4:34 am

#48 acdel on 08.05.16 at 9:42 pm
“What part of all those who continue to propagate the U.S. economy that do not not seem to include the 20 trillion not billion but trillion and continuing debt, the great Americans will have to deal with sooner then later?

What a complete farce!~

Hook,line and sinker. :)”

Not really… they own their central bank and currency, and thus can continue to print money and buy gov’t bonds initially sold to the private sector. The Fed doesn’t need to sell their bonds if it doesn’t want to. Personally, I would prefer if it did because US bond prices are quite high and the demand from the private sector could sustain relatively low yields for some time.

#80 Kenchie on 08.06.16 at 4:51 am

#59 canuck on 08.05.16 at 10:47 pm
“45 million on food stamps is considered full employment?
What was the GDP for the last quarter? Yes, America is roaring back… rolls eyes.”

http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/pd/34SNAPmonthly.pdf

Down 8.56% between October 2012 and May 2016… That’s an improvement. Furthermore, over the same period, the avg monthly benefit dropped 7.81%. This is what’s called an improvement, despite what your politics will convince you to believe…

#81 GenXer on 08.06.16 at 6:48 am

And now we begin to see the result of a misallocation of capital due to overly aggressive monetary policy. Interest rates have been kept too low for too long and the jobs created in the process are unsustainable. I feel for those impacted, the tally of full time job losses is massive for a country the size of Canada. The next few months will be very interesting times.

#82 rainclouds on 08.06.16 at 7:27 am

#19 parsonage “Meanwhile Tims on the #1 in Golden BC can’t find enough employees to keep the Drive thru’s open.”

They moved to Van. Now selling homes. Less educational requirements……

#83 Stendz on 08.06.16 at 7:45 am

Hey Garth… Is it time to move? Has Canada passed the point of no return? If not, when do you see things turning around? When will Canada be great again? Love the blog, read it every day but if possible, give us one blog a week on hope for the future.

#84 sevenking on 08.06.16 at 8:25 am

Garth

After the end of the Misery blog chain, I was fully expecting today’s blog to be titled…..wait for it….”Hobbled”

#85 AK on 08.06.16 at 8:35 am

“Over 70% of investors have 100% of their stuff in Canadian securities”
======================================
Companies like Brookfield, even though listed on the TSX, manage vast assets throughout the globe.

#86 rosie on 08.06.16 at 9:07 am

#27 Blacksheep

I’m not an American or a Trumpkin. But I can spot a con like Mr. Trumpkin 1.6km away. Too bad you Trumpkins never learned to spot BS salesmen. They sell religion, BMW’s, houses and false hopes. You do keep the economy going though so keep the faith suckers.

#87 Keynesian @ Heart on 08.06.16 at 9:16 am

WTH?!?! If you haven’t already read this one, Mr. Turner, please do!

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/u-s-family-rushes-home-purchase-ahead-of-new-b-c-tax-1.3017702

#88 tony on 08.06.16 at 9:41 am

There’s little discussion about Montreal’s market. Prices have remained flat-lined. Is it time to purchase a second rental property, selling 10% above evaluation, I would need to refinance my 3-plex to buy this home. I’m 50 years-old and have a $45000 mortgage left on a $725000
3-plex.

Thank you

#89 Zen Headspace on 08.06.16 at 9:46 am

Broke, Desperate, and Stupid are three brothers that always hang out together. When one shows up, the others aren’t far behind.

In many cases, debt arises out of a deeply held sense of entitlement.

Too many people feel that they simply deserve to live in a house that is priced beyond what they can realistically afford. So they assume massive debt.

The illusion that the debt repayment is affordable and within their means (because the interest rate – cost of borrowing – is “low”) is what ultimately does them in.

Instead of living in a modest house (i.e., a reasonable dwelling that is well within one’s financial means), and investing any extra earned income into a variety of diversified growth and income assets, people bury themselves in mortgage debt to be able to “invest” in one coveted asset, and cling to the misguided belief that its worth will eventually rise significantly beyond the value of their life-long debt obligation.

In the meantime, they become cash strapped and have no extra money to invest, save, or spend in order to live an enjoyable balanced life. This usually leads to taking on even more debt (helocs, payday loans, refinancing, second mortgages, etc.).

This misguided practice of so many is what ultimately leads to discontentment, unhappiness, rage, erectile disfunction, high blood pressure, anxiety, stress, regret, hostility, anger, resentment, pokemon chasing, jealousy, envy, greed, mental illness, reality TV show watching, low self esteem, bankruptcy, shame, and poverty.

An individual who seeks enlightenment in his pursuit of Nirvana needs to avoid both extremes of self-indulgence and self-mortification. The Zen Headspace embraces these two opposites and integrates them to bring about a condition which can help an individual reach their highest potential.

Follow the Middle Path.

Be balanced. Be diversified. Be liquid.

#90 mathman on 08.06.16 at 9:50 am

#70 Whitecrock

– I’m not so sure about those numbers in LA, that would be a huge percentage our of population- I can say the financial sector which drove NYC and CDN’s to it has been hollowed out since 2007. Same for Boston. No to mention that many young whipersnappers tend to move back North when they start families. trend i see is smart people cashing out and going to central and south america to live like kings.

#91 Babbabooey on 08.06.16 at 10:09 am

Re: #72 Tony
——————————————————————–
Huh????

http://www.honekut.com/HonEkutCom_Audio/SoundBites/HowardStern/WhatAreYouSaying.wav

#92 Babbabooey on 08.06.16 at 10:14 am

#88 Tony
“There’s little discussion about Montreal’s market.”
——————————————————————–
That’s because outside of La Bell Provence, nobody cares.
It’s a hellhole. People escaped from Montreal in the 70’s and haven’t looked back.

Never been there, have you? — Garth

#93 broader mind on 08.06.16 at 10:21 am

Solution-Canada should allow similar borrowing and rate structure to equities as it does to home finance(super stretch margin + low interest) Our stock market would quadruple in short order and the government would wipe out the deficit with the collection of cap. gain tax.Win-win.

#94 ihavenoname on 08.06.16 at 10:25 am

“””””The US turned out 255,000 new jobs last month, with another 292,000 created in June. This keeps the unemployment rate at 4.9%, which is now considered full employment”””””

Wow….. I have this never used 8 year old car for sale. Even though the numbers on the odometer do not line up, the true mileage is barely noticable. ‘Lady’ driver…goes by the name of Jenet Jellen…. so nothing is fudged. Only awake people would question those stats…. or obedient Canadians.

#95 Time greater than money on 08.06.16 at 10:44 am

Garth,

I predict you will be talking about eating squirrels before 2017 is done. I remember 2008 well. Investors should be raising cash levels and waiting for stock prices to come down. Why are corporate earning going down since march 2014 and stock prices up? Investors are gambling the FED will print more money. That’s the only reason.

Your job is hard, but people shouldn’t think 60/40 won’t get crushed. Why invest in 40 % bonds at these levels. Bonds prices have never before in history been higher then this! Investor are better off holding 40 % cash USD and gold. Yes cash and and gold don’t yield anything, but neither do bonds.

Good luck everyone, hope I’m wrong.

You are. The 40% in a fixed income portfolio is not all bonds – amateur mistake. Gold is a complete gamble. — Garth

#96 Financial Samurai on 08.06.16 at 11:07 am

I agree with you regarding diversifying most of your growth assets outside of Canada. It sure looks like Canada’s time has come.

But I disagree regarding the biggest risk is running out of money. Just wrote an article that the fear of running out of money in retirement is way overblown. There is a plethora of ways to make money and optimize your assets.

Sam

Your article is 100% American content, and has little relevance in a country where shelter costs 50% more and public pensions pay 50% less. The greatest risk most GIC-loving Canucks will face is how to buy groceries at age 78. — Garth

#97 JP on 08.06.16 at 11:13 am

Garth so many Schiffbots in your comments section parroting what their deity has brainwashed them with. USA economy is doing well only the Schiffbots will deny that.

#98 Westcoast Woman on 08.06.16 at 11:34 am

#31 Andrew Woburn

”On Aug 3, I got a call from the BC Medical Services Plan for late payment. I owed $16 which was due on July 27. Yes, they were on my case 6 days after due date. Who says government can’t move fast?”
—————————————————-

#65 Ronaldo Except with paying their employees.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/phoenix-payroll-system-problems-court-1.3656600
—————————————————-
The Phoenix payroll is for federal public servants, the folks calling Andrew are BC provincial public servants paid using a different system so nope, no connection to the Phoenix issues.

#99 Time greater than money on 08.06.16 at 11:35 am

DELETED. This is not a gold blog.

#100 Ak on 08.06.16 at 11:43 am

#95 Time greater than money on 08.06.16 at 10:44 am
Garth,

” Investors should be raising cash levels and waiting for stock prices to come down. Investor are better off holding 40 % cash USD and gold.”

“Good luck everyone, hope I’m wrong.”

——————————————————–
People were preaching the same crap back in 1980.

The S&P 500 was @ 123 on August 08, 1980. Today its sitting @ 2182.

Go figure.

If you have the knowledge to time the market, knock your self out.

#101 Time greater than money on 08.06.16 at 11:59 am

Censoring intelligent debate… How well is that working out for Russia.

Pumping gold is senseless debate. Go away. — Garth

#102 AK on 08.06.16 at 11:59 am

#72 Tony on 08.06.16 at 1:43 am
“If there was any recovery whatsoever in America we’d see a “spillover effect” in Canada. ‘The only spillover effect I’m seeing is America is clearly in a depression even worst than during the dirty thirties. Its amazing all the total lies that come out of America as they get nearer and nearer the November election. Why in the next month or so we’ll probably see a jobs report of 500,000 plus! Sadly the jobs numbers will all turn negative after the election and interest rates will turn negative.”
=====================================
Did I mention that you are quite the entertainer?

LMFAO..

#103 Aggregator on 08.06.16 at 12:08 pm

The greatest risk most GIC-loving Canucks will face is how to buy groceries at age 78. — Garth

Retiring South Surrey couple stuck with 2 mortgages after foreign buyer tax

"Part of the sale was to deal with our retirement. I don't have any official pension plans other than what we've been able to save."

It's amazing how all of a sudden the media has shifted their stories from yellow helicopters to locals and non-Chinese foreigners speculating in Vancouver's housing market. Only time will reveal who's really bidding up prices and which lenders are backing it.

#104 TurnerNation on 08.06.16 at 12:23 pm

#28 BOOM! Well spotted. Bonds just are not acting right to support a rate hike or bull market scenario.

But it is. Look at move in Goldman Sachs stock on Friday. Priming to go much higher.

What’s good for GS err I mean GM is good for USA?

You got it Pontiac.

#105 Jamie Dimon on 08.06.16 at 12:35 pm

Mmm Fresh Meat

#106 Context on 08.06.16 at 12:41 pm

The only gold I have left are two diamond rings and my show off bracelet in 18 carat gold. Yes women know the difference as the cheap stuff will never get you anywhere in life.

#107 White Crock BC on 08.06.16 at 12:46 pm

mathman on 08.06.16 at 9:50 am

#70 Whitecrock

– I’m not so sure about those numbers in LA, that would be a huge percentage our of population-
——————————————–

http://goo.gl/UPEIql

Second paragraph into the story (Globe and Mail)

#108 A box in the sky on 08.06.16 at 1:29 pm

#78 jane 24 on 08.06.16 at 4:20 am
Garth I laughed at your descriptor of many of our fellow Canadians as ‘puffed-up patriots’ as so very apt. I love my Canadian relatives and friends but they are very set on Canada being the centre of the universe and the best place to live in the world, despite never reading international news or having travelled anywhere at all, other than Florida.

When I ask why they don’t explore our exciting world, they say that they can’t afford too but truly do not see the irony in that response. A shame as many Canadians would benefit from global travel and seeing the world through other’s eyes. They wouldn’t have voted for Trudeau Junior for a start!!
————————–

Lol. This is rich coming from someone that voted for Brexit.

Look at this, a Little Englander lecturing us on small mindedness. What an absolute joke. You’re the xenophobe here.

Also I would think the percentage of Canadians who have travelled to another continent compares favourably with Americans, Australians, and Brits.

#109 Economic Geologist on 08.06.16 at 1:36 pm

If we would just stop tying ourselves into knots trying to save the planet from CO2, aka plant food, (while the rest of the world is laughing at us and forging ahead with their economic growth), we could start building a few pipelines. Then we could stop selling our oil to the Americans at bargain basement prices, and bring a few more royalty dollars into the Treasury to pay for all those new Liberal programs. This might rev up our economy a bit. And sure would create some employment to build a national pipeline or two.

#110 rainclouds on 08.06.16 at 1:48 pm

#79 Jane the pain
my Canadian relatives and friends but they are very set on Canada being the centre of the universe and the best place to live in the world, despite never reading international news or having travelled anywhere at all, other than Florida.

When I ask why they don’t explore our exciting world, they say that they can’t afford too but truly do not see the irony in that response. A shame as many Canadians would benefit from global travel and seeing the world through other’s eyes. They wouldn’t have voted for Trudeau Junior for a start!!

Sigh.

Where to start….perhaps it’s the myopic circle of “friends and relatives” you have?

Every countries residents feel their country is the best, even in jolly old declining England. It’s called patriotism. …..

Given the population of GTO/GVRD is comprised of a sizeable portion of immigrants (in fact the 2 most ethnically diverse cities ON THE PLANET) it would be reasonable to assume that yes beside” your friends and relatives” many have traveled elsewhere beside ” Florida ”

“Trudeau Jr” probably saw more countries by the age of 3 than the international jet setter Genious economist who visited such exotic locations such as Nepean and Bowness then spent 10 years creating the biblical fiscal quagmire here in the colonies.

The real irony is your failure to realize the how much of a pompous uniformed windbag you are.

Isn’t there some other blog you can grace with your riveting insights on worldly matters from on high?

#111 chopstix on 08.06.16 at 1:52 pm

vancouver is fast becoming a kardhasian like city: sure while it has great curves, sightlines,fab T&A, underneath all the veneer is a shallowness, an emptiness, an ongoing fragmentation of communities due to RE greed and ongoing renovictions.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/priced-out-of-rental-market-simon-fraser-students-sleeping-on-campus/article31291389/

#112 TurnerNation on 08.06.16 at 2:08 pm

88 tony. Are you of Italian background. Step #1.

#113 TurnerNation on 08.06.16 at 2:13 pm

Success in life finally is reached when your fear of dying is equal to your fear of living. A healthy dose of both leads to self preserving actions.

Else you’ll have a fatal detraction.

#114 Mark M. on 08.06.16 at 2:14 pm

#97 – JP

Schiffbots know there will be no rate hikes this year. How about you JP, still calling for 2 or 3? Think it’s a good idea to cool off an economy growing at 1%?

Yours is clearly the deluded outlook since to date we’ve been promised multiple rate hikes and have only received one token 25 point raise 8 months ago.

#115 Pale Ale on 08.06.16 at 2:23 pm

#88 tony

There’s little discussion about Montreal’s market. Prices have remained flat-lined. Is it time to purchase a second rental property, selling 10% above evaluation, I would need to refinance my 3-plex to buy this home. I’m 50 years-old and have a $45000 mortgage left on a $725000
3-plex.

——————————————————————

Good luck making money on a rental property with the Régie controlling rent prices. Montreal is a blue-collar city. It is flat because demographics and wages are so bad that prices can’t grow any further.

#116 Brazil ex-pat on 08.06.16 at 2:38 pm

And the censorship continues……

Do us both a favour, and leave. — Garth

#117 Brazil ex-pat on 08.06.16 at 2:40 pm

#109 Economic Geologist on 08.06.16 at 1:36 pm
If we would just stop tying ourselves into knots trying to save the planet from CO2, aka plant food, (while the rest of the world is laughing at us and forging ahead with their economic growth), we could start building a few pipelines. Then we could stop selling our oil to the Americans at bargain basement prices, and bring a few more royalty dollars into the Treasury to pay for all those new Liberal programs. This might rev up our economy a bit. And sure would create some employment to build a national pipeline or two.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The answer is education. The Govt and skooolz are busy trying to brainwash people that CO2 is a toxic gas and that it is causing gloBULL warming. When if you get yourself “educated” you soon learn that gloBULL warming was invented by Govt in order to tax you for more money.

#118 JP on 08.06.16 at 2:44 pm

@114 They are coming my friend, 2 or 3 this year. You continue stacking and hoping for the “end game”.

#119 Context on 08.06.16 at 2:46 pm

#88 Tony: – Montreal is a first class city in many ways and it would depend on many factors such as location, neighborhood, transportation, schools in the area, available goods and services nearby, and rental demand in this location; not to mention the condition of the rental building itself.

#120 Jay_Huhman on 08.06.16 at 2:50 pm

#107 White Crock BC
OK, the million estimate is from the Globe and Mail recently, the problem I have with this estimate is that as of 2011 (admittedly not fresh) there are only 320,000 Canadians with legal permanent residency in the US. This will not include visitors or Canadians who have become naturalized US citizens.
Table 4: https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_lpr_pe_2011.pdf

#121 Bottoms_Up on 08.06.16 at 2:54 pm

#117 Brazil ex-pat on 08.06.16 at 2:40 pm
———————————
My GOD man, when will you ever LEARN?

Rio is going to lose a good chunk of land mass, due to rising oceans, due to human-induced global warming.

Areas of the middle east will soon be inhabitable due to average temperatures 7 oC higher than normal, putting a typical summer day into 50 oC….

The evidence is CRYSTAL clear.

Seriously, do us all a favour and LEAVE.

#122 bubu on 08.06.16 at 2:58 pm

@36 Arfmooocat

Restaurants and malls are as busy as during the boom.. Edmonton prices are also up…..

#123 Bottoms_Up on 08.06.16 at 2:59 pm

#109 Economic Geologist on 08.06.16 at 1:36 pm
———————————-
You would be a wise person to read this:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
(Nasa surface temperature data)

And this:
http://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/
(UN summary report on climate change for policy makers)

#124 Ed on 08.06.16 at 3:02 pm

I think once we realize Canada lives & dies not with manufacturing, tech, or windmills but with oilsands,lumber and minerals we’ll be OK.

#125 A box in the Sky on 08.06.16 at 3:05 pm

#114 Mark M. on 08.06.16 at 2:14 pm

#97 – JP

Schiffbots know there will be no rate hikes this year. How about you JP, still calling for 2 or 3? Think it’s a good idea to cool off an economy growing at 1%?

Yours is clearly the deluded outlook since to date we’ve been promised multiple rate hikes and have only received one token 25 point raise 8 months ago.

—————————————–

Congrats. Maybe we should pin a medal on your chest, because you nailed interest rates.

And how did you profit from it? Because Schiffbots are anti stocks, especially anti US stocks. There has been no time in the past 10 years where Schiff said something along the lines of “interest rates are going to stay low so you need to back up the truck and buy stocks”. All he does is peddle gold and this idiocy about the US dollar collapsing.

So yeah, keep telling yourselves how brilliant you are while your returns suffer.

#126 White Crock BC on 08.06.16 at 4:47 pm

Jay_Huhman on 08.06.16 at 2:50 pm

#107 White Crock BC
OK, the million estimate is from the Globe and Mail recently, the problem I have with this estimate is that as of 2011 (admittedly not fresh) there are only 320,000 Canadians with legal permanent residency in the US.

=================

320k or 1m, my point was that this country has no way possible of keeping talent, regardless of any government policy.

Canada is too big, too cold, too sparsely settled and too socialist (high taxes) to compete with the US.

If our neighbor was Kazakhstan, we might stand a chance.

As David Foster said: “Canada is a great place to be from” (Imagine the “from” in italics)

#127 45north on 08.06.16 at 5:16 pm

Victoria Real Estate Update: the Metro Vancouver crash tax will not only eliminate a lot of the fear of missing out among buyers but it will also drain confidence from the market.

It’s probably safe to say that Vancouver’s housing market problems have officially begun.

the crash tax is contrary to the interests of Christy Clark and the BC Liberals. As Garth said when it comes to Vancouver real estate: there is no bottom. It’s in free fall now.

#128 TurnerNation on 08.06.16 at 7:46 pm

^ err. make that: poking holes IN bricks. ..

#129 acdel on 08.06.16 at 9:42 pm

#79 Kenchie

Thanks for the response but my assumption is that you would probably agree that it is just a band-aide solution; inevitably, the situation needs to be be dealt with; printing endless money will result in (you know what I getting to).

#130 steerage steward on 08.07.16 at 1:15 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AvbxakWIuE

#131 steerage steward on 08.07.16 at 1:22 am

Toronto is a grate please to to raise a family, or a plant, but it’s not place to facile in love.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNCUgFeIjyM

#132 steerage steward on 08.07.16 at 1:24 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLj8Bp3wC80

#133 steerage steward on 08.07.16 at 1:38 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bS5P_LAqiVg

http://biblehub.com/genesis/16-2.htm

#134 Mic on 08.07.16 at 12:42 pm

I keep reading on this blog about the gains in the TSX this year and yet I constantly have friends bemoaning the fact that their portfolios are stagnant. How could this be??? I decided to look into this for this myself…

This was from the GM on Dec 31/2015…..

“The S&P/TSX composite finished off 132.3 points, or 1.01 per cent, at 13,009.95, marking the third consecutive day its been down since trading resumed Tuesday following the Christmas-Boxing Day holiday.

That left Canada’s main index down 1,623.19 points — or a loss of some 11 per cent — from its close of 14,632.44 exactly a year ago…”

Sooooo…the TSX was down year over year in 2015 by 11%. The TSX closed at 14,648.77 on Friday….if you held those stocks for over a year and a half and didn’t sell, you are only back to where you started. If you bought stocks in early 2016, you experienced the 12% gain that GT keeps referring to due to good timing and good luck…this return was, of course, limited by the amount of spare cash you had lying around outside of your investment account. Buy and hold!!! Don’t try to time the market!!!! Those of you that ignored that advice made some money…for those of you that followed that advice, not so much!

#135 I dont believe anything they say on 08.07.16 at 1:10 pm

“Believe nothing you hear and only half of what you see ”
Famous words to live by