Out of control

BABY TAPE modified

We’ll get to the macro in a moment. It may surprise you. First, the micro. Here’s Sam:

“I’m a software developer living in Vancouver and a big fan of your blog. I’ve never seen a story like this, and thought you (and your audience) may find it interesting.

Two months ago our landlord put up our apartment in Yaletown for sale and sold it in 15 minutes for $688,000 to the first buyer! I was thinking I spend more time buying $68 jeans than this dude spent buying a $688K apartment. Long story short, and the buyer forced us to move and said it is going to be used by their parents (they actually brought them to see the place).

Now I’ve been following the insanity in Vancouver for a while and had subscribed to a couple of realtors’ newsletters and receive “superb opportunities” all the time. I sometimes open them up randomly and I was shocked yesterday when I saw our previous apartment up for sale, just one month after they kicked us out! And guess what, they replaced the carpet with laminate flooring and that apparently added $111,000 (15%) of value and it is now listed for $799,900! Maybe the laminates are gold coated, who knows?

I’m going to start a dispute resolution process with BC and see if I can get them to pay me back the $150 I was charged for cleaning the carpets, since the carpets are gone! (and more…). Keep up the good work!”

No, this is not another post about Vancouver. (I can’t take it.) But in light of Friday’s statistics, let’s talk about where all this is headed. As you may have heard, there was a mother of a US jobs report, blowing past all expectations, igniting talk of interest rate hikes being back on the table. Meanwhile in Canada, our labour data choked. We’re in some trouble.

Against this backdrop not only did some dude take only 15 minutes to pay $688,000 (plus closing costs) for an 880-foot apartment, but he turned out to be a specker, immediately throwing it back on the market for a hundred bucks less than $800,000. (There’s an open house this weekend, if you want to drop by.)

This is an intensely unhealthy market, wherein single-family detached home sales are plunging, prices are wobbling to extreme heights, FOMO stalks the land and anger is fomenting as middle-class people fall further and further behind. That was evident here yesterday. And in Brexit. And Trump. In the anti-Chinese, anti-immigrant swill. And in the eat-the-rich, tribalist sentiment that has globalists, elites and governments popping he Tums.

The thread running through all of this is fear that people are losing ground in a world where social and economic change seems out of control. Including Canada – where (ironically) we have created what’s possibly the planet’s greatest debt-fueled speculative real estate bubble.

The job creation numbers out of Ottawa Friday were appalling. Forget the middling headlines about the nation losing a net 700 jobs, since the picture’s far darker. Gone in the latest count were 13,000 more manufacturing jobs, for a body count of more than 30,000 in the past year. Just over 40,000 full-time positions, with full-time benefits, have been replaced with part-time jobs, many with no benefits. Almost an equal number of positions (38,000) morphed into ‘self-employment’. And you know what that means. The labour participation rate has been dropping since the spring (now at the worst level since 1999), and youth unemployment is stuck at more than 13%, which is why you have a thing living in your basement.

In the last year the total number of jobs in Canada increased by 0.6%, or about a hundred thousand. That’s less than half the rate at which the population grew. More worrisome, the bulk of those new hires were part-time, and the pace of job creation is slowing. No surprise there. The economy is barely expanding, oil prices are a burden, family incomes are stagnant and yet household debt has hit a new record high as the middle class over-reaches to sustain a lifestyle now unsupported by cash flow.

Pow. Political backlash. Xenophobia. Soak the rich. Tax empty houses. Shut the border. Cheer Trump and the Brexiters. And mutiny over at GreaterFool.

Meanwhile in the US, despite too damn many guns and nutjobs, the economy powers ahead – fueled in part by the same cheap energy that’s impoverishing us. The number of new jobs in June surged to 287,000, outpacing the rosiest of estimates, boosting stock markets above their pre-Brexit levels as more people poured into the labour market. This, some say, is ‘full employment,’ that point at which most of the people who want to work, are.

Commented US payroll forecast Hugh Johnson to Bloomberg: “If you take the last three months and smooth these numbers out — which is really what you should do — employment conditions are improving, but there’s no question there’s, to some extent, a slowdown in the improvement. That’s to be expected when you reach what I would argue is full employment.”

Hmm. So why are there no US metropolitan areas where house prices are increasing 30% a year, as in Vancouver? Or even 16.8% annually, like Toronto? With full employment and millions of new positions, higher incomes and lower living costs, why are American family debt levels going down? With borrowing rates like ours, why aren’t they gorging on cheap debt, speculating on rising property values, using their houses like ATMs, and pushing house prices into the sky?

That’s easy. They’ve been there. Done that. And learned. It’s taken almost ten tortuous years for American families to start getting over the shellacking they took where their own real estate bubble imploded. Those who piled the bulk of their net worth into a house, who banked on ever-rising valuations, who played the greater fool buying out of fear or greed, who thought it was different this time, paid a heavy price. And it astonishes many of them that Canadians would watch closely, then trod the same path.

So, if you think people on this pathetic blog are pissed now, just wait.

I’m buying body armour.

205 comments ↓

#1 LTL_FTC on 07.08.16 at 5:50 pm

Hi Garth,

One thing about that BC Mike De Jong data is worth noting – Apart from the foreign (read ‘Chinese’)money witch hunt and realizing the data doesn’t paint a complete picture, once they start reporting it monthly (as promised) it may be in stark contrast to your oft mentioned franken-numbers from the RE Boards.

Don’t you think it will be interesting to watch as inquiring minds start to connect the dots and spot the inconsistencies on reported sales volumes and average price?

#2 TurnerNation on 07.08.16 at 5:51 pm

Happy weekend to blog dogs and Josef.

#3 James on 07.08.16 at 5:52 pm

Regarding’s Sam’s story: it sounds like he may have been wrongfully evicted, as the parents were not living there, and this does not sound like “Major Construction” as per the government guidelines:

http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/housing-tenancy/residential-tenancies/ending-a-tenancy/landlord-notice/two-month-notice

Give ’em hell, Sam!

#4 Crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.16 at 5:53 pm

Hmmmm.
10 years of “crawl back” to reach a level of normalcy in the Canadian RE markets……glad I’ll be retired.

#5 hp Victoria on 07.08.16 at 5:56 pm

Software developer: you might be able to claim more than the cost of cleaning the carpets. If the new owner evicted you only to flip the house (not for parents), you might have a case of wrongful eviction. Check with the Residential Tenancy Branch in BC.

#6 Victoria Real Estate Update on 07.08.16 at 5:57 pm

0.68%

That’s the number of real estate deals that went to buyers from all of Asia in Victoria. (Source: Victoria’s R/E board). (See Garth, chart, January 31).

0.68% is basically zero.

97.8% of buyers came from Canada.

Yesterday a realtor (under a fresh new name) wrote a nasty comment claiming that I had presented false stats (0.68%).

Of course the information I posted yesterday was accurate and verifiable. This has been the case with all of the information I’ve presented in all of my posts.

Denial and anger are the expected reactions to the (lack of) foreign investment in Victoria. Ditto for Vancouver. For proof of this read yesterday’s comments.

The news about Vancouver’s market probably wasn’t a surprise to anyone who knew that it’s always important to question any information released
by those with a vested interest in keeping house prices high in Canada (example: realtors).

Since the beginning of 2015 (when the BoC lowered its rate), realtors and the local media have claimed that buyers from China had “suddenly discovered Victoria” and that these buyers were “moving Victoria’s market”.

The facts prove this is false information.

How many buyers took on dangerous mortgages at bubble prices in Victoria as a result of this false information? My guess: far too many.

Garth posted information that shows how buyers in Victoria have stretched themselves as much as those in Vancouver and Toronto over the last three years in taking on new mortgages (see Garth, June 13, second chart). This important bubble-measuring data shows that Victoria’s market is as overvalued as Toronto’s or Vancouver’s. (Source: the Bank of Canada).

And local buyers are the guilty party – stretching themselves as far as possible with Canada’s lax mortgage lending standard (that lack enforcement), record-low mortgage rates, record household debt, stagnating incomes and a moribund Canadian economy.

All housing bubbles deflate. The deflation of a housing bubble involves a deep, multi-year price correction that leaves many families, who took on mortgages at or near the peak, in financial hardship or complete financial devastation.

That false information about buyers from China “moving Victoria’s market” was released to Victorians, resulting in many locals buying at bubble prices over the last 18 months, will push Victoria’s price bottom even lower than it would have been without this false information.

These bubble buyers will have the local media and realtors to blame for their future financial problems.

#7 Millenial on 07.08.16 at 5:59 pm

Hey Garth,

Of the 287,000 jobs in the US, 90% of those went to people aged 55 and over. Only 28,000 were added in the critical 25-54 age group. Workers under 24 lost a collective 107,000 in June.

Respectfully, I wish you would delve into the dirty details of the American numbers as much as you go into the Canadian numbers. But I won’t argue with you that the American stats are better than the Canadian. :(

#8 Johnny D on 07.08.16 at 5:59 pm

Meanwhile we can’t get a pipeline approved in this country anymore.

#9 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 07.08.16 at 6:00 pm

its friday i’m in love

with this weblogdog

#10 pissed on 07.08.16 at 6:00 pm

I just come for the funny pics you post.

#11 BOOM! on 07.08.16 at 6:01 pm

No. Actually it is sort of….well FUN.

You tried to warn the idiot. The idiot SEES the pain and trouble others went through.

The idiot thinks it will NEVER happen to them.

The idiot keeps on their ‘thing’ because it’s different there.

Does not matter whether you are talking the long term effects from smoking, or mal investment. The results end in the same way. financial death, or physical death.

Pick your favorite!!

#12 AK on 07.08.16 at 6:03 pm

First!!!!!

#13 Get Back Loretta on 07.08.16 at 6:03 pm

Just make sure the body armour is made in Canada. We need the work.

#14 Body Armor? on 07.08.16 at 6:05 pm

You’re such a relic. The PM (I refuse to say “our” because he’s not mine) is embracing the new lifestyles and the world without boundaries. Body armor is the last thing on that “man’s” mind now.

We are completely and thoroughly knee deep in trouble.

This nation is effed up.

#15 Self Directed on 07.08.16 at 6:05 pm

Sam’s story, it looks like Apartements and Townhomes are now the next thing within affordability, as homes are now at record levels, and sticky.

Sam, just feel sorry for your landlord, who cashed in 1 month to early, costing him $100K.

#16 Joe Schmoe on 07.08.16 at 6:07 pm

If I was JT (I should be so lucky) I would be targeting the lost tax income from RE flipping.

When Calgary was nuts a few years ago, everyone who was anyone was swapping condos more frequently than underpants. Most silently coughed into their hands when you asked about tax implications.

#17 Good Grief.. on 07.08.16 at 6:12 pm

“…Including Canada – where (ironically) we have created what’s possibly the planet’s greatest debt-fueled speculative real estate bubble…”

Umm no. CMHC is still below the $600 billion limit we were so close to breaching 2 years ago. This is not debt fuelled. *Source: CMHC outstanding mortgages

#18 Cici on 07.08.16 at 6:12 pm

Sam,

You should definitely go after them, but for more than the carpets. They forced you out illegally and you now have the proof that their parents never occupied the flat. Sounds like an inside deal if it went that fast; bought on spec to pump and flip. I don’t know the Vancouver market, but I’m pretty sure that you can go after them for damages. The fact that renos were done immediately, and right before flipping, tells a lot about the parents’ real intention to move their.

Keep that e-mail and all other documentation and go after them!

#19 ED on 07.08.16 at 6:13 pm

Your body armour best have stupidity protection. The amount of denial yesterday about the foreign ownership not being the cause of the RE bubble was astounding. Correlates with 1 in 4 people believing the world to be flat (they must all come to this blog). It is extremely difficult to be tolerant of intolerance/stupidity…

#20 AK on 07.08.16 at 6:13 pm

“That’s easy. They’ve been there. Done that. And learned. It’s taken almost ten tortuous years for American families to start getting over the shellacking they took where their own real estate bubble imploded. ‘
====================================
Not only they are not buying houses, they are also staying away from the stock market.

There is still a lot of money on the sidelines, which explains why the 10 year bond is heading down to 1.25%…

No it doesn’t. — Garth

#21 Eco Capitalist on 07.08.16 at 6:13 pm

Could you dedicate a little space in an upcoming blog to rental resources that you trust? I’d love to sell, put that cash to good use and rent somewhere (GTA), but Google coughs up so many rental sites I don’t know where to begin or which ones are trust worthy.

Thanks!

“There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path” – Morpheus, the Matrix

#22 Moron Face on 07.08.16 at 6:13 pm

Feb was probably the last great US stock market buying opportunity for some time. Brexit was a final shakeout. We’re going much higher…

#23 Cici on 07.08.16 at 6:14 pm

@Sam

Oops, meant “real intention to move there”…it’s been a long day!

#24 conan on 07.08.16 at 6:15 pm

Sam,
I am not a lawyer or familiar with BC tenant law, but check to see if your tenant rights were abrogated.

Purchasers are not allowed to use the relative loop hole in order to remove the tenant, unless its true.

Worth a free consult IMHO.

#25 Good Grief.. on 07.08.16 at 6:15 pm

“…So, if you think people on this pathetic blog are pissed now, just wait…I’m buying body armour.”

No need. The millennials just won’t clean the boomers diapers when they’re in retirement homes. Boomers are unprepared for the ‘mean’ society they spawned. Millennials will have the last laugh.

#26 Sebee on 07.08.16 at 6:17 pm

Why no 30% increase in US? Apparently they don’t get as many immigrants as we do. Or we have less land than they do. Or we are richer than they are. Yeah…that’s it.

#27 mouldy in YVR on 07.08.16 at 6:21 pm

Remember that holiday Garth.
Don’t worry about YVR. We are completely nuts. However, we don’t need to worry about bubbles bursting here……slowly, slowly we will sink into the ground….all our mouldy, waterlogged, hastily constructed low rises, high rises and SFHs will simply disintegrate and melt away ………..yes there will be moaning, hand ringing and wails of despair…….but no worries………in a few years the cycle will start all over again……..Are there lessons to be learned………probably, but given human nature, I’m not holding my breath.

#28 RocDoc on 07.08.16 at 6:22 pm

I lived in the US (Texas) through the 2008/2009 real estate crash. As a Canadian living in the US, I worry about what will happen to many of my Canadian friends and relatives who have bought homes within the last few years. They are mainly in Saskatchewan and Manitoba and it’s not as overvalued as Vancouver or Toronto. However, a farmer cousin recently paid over $400,000 for what is basically a double wide made to look like a house in a tiny Saskatchewan farm town.

#29 Good Grief.. on 07.08.16 at 6:23 pm

https://betterdwelling.com/meet-the-man-that-sells-billions-of-dollars-of-canadian-homes-in-china-and-hes-just-getting-started/

This man only sells Canadian homes in China. Site is Juwai.com

Sold $14.9 Billion of CDN residential real estate in China last year.

#30 White Crock BC on 07.08.16 at 6:23 pm

So the US adds almost 300,000 jobs in one month and their unemployment rate goes up…

We lose 700 jobs and our rate goes down?

Seriously?

Better prospects bring out more job-seekers, and vice versa. Not too hard to grasp. — Garth

#31 Staging Expert on 07.08.16 at 6:24 pm

Sam,

You do realize staging all those furniture for the upcoing open house cost major $$$$$.

There is no profit to be made here. So please don’t sue.

#32 conan on 07.08.16 at 6:29 pm

RE: #19 ED on 07.08.16 at 6:13 pm

You were calling people out yesterday for believing that foreign ownership was an issue.

Now in today’s post you have the reverse opinion , but you are still flinging the poo.

ED your a blank.

#33 mouldy in YVR on 07.08.16 at 6:30 pm

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/07/08/vancouver-real-estate-crash_n_10869538.html
…shorting the YVR market…….has the ‘crash already begun??”
… LePoidevin “shorting both Canadian Western Bank and Laurentian Bank, as well as non-bank mortgage lenders Home Capital Group (HCG) and Equitable Bank….
…..Canada’s main financial regulator is stepping up its oversight of mortgage lending, particularly how creditors verify borrowers’ income…….
…….Scotiabank has pulled back on mortgage lending in Vancouver and Toronto……
……… efforts by China and the People’s Bank of China on stemming foreign capital flows, including putting people in jail now for the first time……..”

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.16 at 6:30 pm

@#21 Eco Capitalist
The blog overlord doesnt give out market “tips”.
But since you’re quoting a fictional character in a poorly written and acted sci-fi movie…….

I’ll assume you werent aware of that fact.

#35 understood by few on 07.08.16 at 6:34 pm

“brand NEW Swiss-made laminate floors”

Wow. Swiss-made. It’s still laminate.

Meanwhile, a short ferry ride away, 800K will buy you a decent (but aged) box on 7500 sqft of actual dirt in ever popular Gordon Head and will most likely include real hardwood (or maybe engineered if it has been renoed lately).

Heck, low 800s will get you an ok place in Broadmead or a fixer upper in a decent area of Oak Bay. Makes Victoria look cheap.

#36 earthboundmisfit on 07.08.16 at 6:37 pm

“too damn many guns and nutjobs”

What a sad yet interesting dichotomy is America. A country that has given the world so much and could give so much more ….. is an epic failure as a society.

#37 Jimmy on 07.08.16 at 6:38 pm

Knee Deep in the Hoopla

#38 TurnerNation on 07.08.16 at 6:40 pm

Good point Smoking man.

From the Social Engineering dept: they managed to turn most successful TO Pride march yet (all levels of government marched) into a BLM debate turning B vs W and G vs S. And every iteration thereof

Doing it in USA too. If that live FB stream from the passengers seat turned out to be staged would I be surprised? If it’s on shakey cell camera it must be real…

They used OJ’s trial for B vs W dissent too. Same old.

What I’ve heard to be truth: all legitimate opposition becomes controlled and infiltrated.

Why I’ll never glance at “independent” Huff Post.
All that millenial angst. They’ll stand for nothing and fall for everything.

#39 Moron Face on 07.08.16 at 6:42 pm

Bond yields have literally “gapped down” over the past couple of months. There is evidence of speculation in the bond market.

#40 MSM-Free Zone on 07.08.16 at 6:45 pm

“…..Gone in the latest count were 13,000 more manufacturing jobs, for a body count of more than 30,000 in the past year. Just over 40,000 full-time positions, with full-time benefits, have been replaced with part-time jobs, many with no benefits……..”
________________________

The bigger the housing bubble, the longer the unemployment lines.

No CEO in his right mind would ever keep jobs in a country whose citizens desperately need above market wages to pay for million-dollar bungalows.

#41 acdel on 07.08.16 at 6:54 pm

No Mutiny over the great pathetic “GreaterFool” blog but on a personal note I just have a hard time with such manipulated stats nowadays; each day a different one is thrown at us; some make it out to be the best ever; two hours later one can read how forged it is. Everything is so manipulated to one’s liking.

I like your blog for the fact you tell it as it is but I take what I read here and compare with the people who work in the field and that is how I get my stats.

Great Blog as usual..

#42 Quebec is Great on 07.08.16 at 6:57 pm

Smoking man mentioned usd/cad @1.4 for exports to be competitive. I feel we’ll be seeing a run to 1.65 within a year with it settling at 1.45 or even 1.5. Once you take away real estate (and construction spinoffs) and oil, there doesnt seem to be much of anything substantial left.

#43 RentYVR on 07.08.16 at 7:02 pm

I’ve been through something not too dissimilar (landord sold place and new guy wants a 60% rent increase). This can be legal IF you’re on a fixed term lease (which is what most landlords now demand). Under this type of lease the tenancy ends at the end of each year and you can choose to re-up a brand new one

#44 Doug t on 07.08.16 at 7:08 pm

Body armour eh Garth – now your talkin like a true prepper – I knew deep down you always wanted a bunker

#45 Frank on 07.08.16 at 7:08 pm

Still waiting for that tipping point.

#46 Dr. Talc on 07.08.16 at 7:15 pm

Mistake #1 he lives in Van
Mistake #2 he’s a tenant
Mistake #3 he’s a ‘big fan’ of this blog
Mistake #4 he buys $68 jeans
Mistake #5 he’s going to start a ‘dispute resolution process with BC ‘

honestly, Charles Dickens couldn’t make up bigger loser

#47 Candy Halson on 07.08.16 at 7:16 pm

If the U.S. jobs report for June-2016 is such a great report and so great for the U.S. economy than why is their 30 year U.S. bond yield just under 2.1% which lowest on record?

It s because nobody believes them and knows main street is still suffering and not benefiting that much. t is not true.

The last time unemployment was 4.9% in the U.S. they had 6%+ U.S. 30 year treasuries.

The way Canada’s interest rates are going following the U.K. and Europe more than the U.S., it looks like we will see a 1.0% to 1.25% 30 year bond yield in weeks.

#48 BASEMENT DWELLERS..HAHAHA on 07.08.16 at 7:20 pm

DELETED

#49 Same Same on 07.08.16 at 7:21 pm

How is this speculative fever any different than the last 7 years? There has never been a slow down for 7 years in the YVR market and the stories above could be found in papers from 2009 onwards. Reno-victions, whether actually renovated or not, have happened for the last 7 years – for the same reason – because there is always a buyer.

Sure, it has ramped up in Vancouver and spilled over to surrounding communities, but its no different – same variables in play driving prices up without any change on the short, medium or long term horizon.

You would be foolish to think that the tide is turning, that the trend is your friend, or the correction is just around the corner. Yawn.

On a side note, the poster has every legal right to go after the buyer turned seller under the RTA. Keep all correspondence, write down the conversations, and take the MLS ad copy. Make that dodgy and unethical buyer pay dearly for his transgressions.

#50 Boom! on 07.08.16 at 7:23 pm

#20 AK

Your post made me laugh out loud! Don’t think it was meant to be humorous, but it was!

As for 1.25% bonds going forward, who knows? I can tell you there was a hell of a lot of money value added to my 40% in ‘safe stuff’ lately with bond rates falling. Even had to sell off a bit today to keep things in line.

Yup, we are all scared and sitting on the sidelines…. except those who used early Feb and the “Brexit” gift for what they were – buying opportunities!

Hysterical!!

BOOM!!

#51 Sam the Sham on 07.08.16 at 7:24 pm

Not everyone believes in the positive robust U.S. job figures. Here’s Canada’s own David Rosenberg:

“What if I told you that (U.S.) employment actually declined 119,000 in June and has been faltering now for three months in a row? Yes, that is indeed the case.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-08/bearish-david-rosenberg-reemerges-what-if-i-told-you-employment-actually-declined-11

#52 fleabitten monkey on 07.08.16 at 7:28 pm

So here is a question – if the real-estate industry is saying all the supposed high immigration to canada is meant to keep high demand for housing and support price growth, wouldn’t shitty employment conditions contradict this assertion? Sure immigrants start businesses etc but what percentage? All I ever hear, esp in Ontario and BC, is high immigration will continue to maintain high demand for housing and support prices. Of course, in theory, but if employment is bleak, that arg doesn’t make sense.

#53 Andrew Woburn on 07.08.16 at 7:29 pm

I saw that big black guy walking around Dallas streets with an assault rifle where open carry is legal. I noted that the two other black guys shot by the police were apparently trying to tell them they were carrying legal hand guns.

Then I wondered … did someone forget to tell the NRA that the Second Amendment actually applies to black people as well? What if they all start carrying in the applicable states. Isn’t that the best way to fight crime according to the NRA?

Look for the Mulford Act to ride again. From Wikipedia:

“The Mulford Act was a 1967 California bill that repealed a law allowing public carrying of loaded firearms. Named after Republican assemblyman Don Mulford, the bill was crafted in response to members of the Black Panther Party who were conducting armed patrols of Oakland neighborhoods while they were conducting what would later be termed copwatching. They garnered national attention after the Black Panthers marched bearing arms upon the California State Capitol to protest the bill.[1][2]

Republicans in California supported increased gun control. Reagan was present when the protesters arrived and later commented that he saw “no reason why on the street today a citizen should be carrying loaded weapons” and that guns were a ” ridiculous way to solve problems that have to be solved among people of good will.”

Yeah, that Reagan. What a total RINO!

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.08.16 at 7:33 pm

People a complaining that US manufacturing is in decline.
Rubbish, I say.
Gun manufacturers a booming.
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-gun-manufacturing-atf-report-2015-7

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.08.16 at 7:34 pm

About pic.
Can’t teach them early enough to use seat belts.

#56 Andrew Woburn on 07.08.16 at 7:39 pm

#47 Candy Halson on 07.08.16 at 7:16 pm
If the U.S. jobs report for June-2016 is such a great report and so great for the U.S. economy than why is their 30 year U.S. bond yield just under 2.1% which lowest on record?
===================

It’s got very little to do with the domestic economy. No other reputable government is even paying that much interest and everyone is buying the US dollar as the best of a bad bunch of currencies. Interest is the price of money and when demand rises relative to supply, the price goes down.

#57 Ret on 07.08.16 at 7:41 pm

Lawyer up Sam. They’ll probably cough up $5-10,000 just to get rid of your claim. Odds are this wasn’t their first little stunt flipping. Tell them that your lawyer will be looking into past property transfers.

Mom and Dad were probably not even their real parents but were some older couple (second cousins twice removed???), paid $100 to act the as the parents.

Don’t contact your original landlord. He will want a cut and you don’t share!

#58 A Yank in BC on 07.08.16 at 7:41 pm

#18 Cici on 07.08.16 at 6:12 pm

Sam,

You should definitely go after them, but for more than the carpets. They forced you out illegally..

You cannot say that because Sam doesn’t give us nearly enough information to determine whether or not the selling landlord followed the rules of the BC Tenancy Act as it applies to the ending of a tenancy (which are fairly complex). If the evicting landlord did follow those rules, the absolute most that Sam would have been due would have been one-months rent. The new owner would not have owed him anything if Sam’s tenancy was legally ended before the sale.

#59 Jacktripper on 07.08.16 at 7:48 pm

To the poor sap who wrote the letter:
Go ahead and log a dispute with the bc tenacy board not for $150, but for 2x your monthly rent.
Save the media for proof where it shows the place is up for rent before its even cooled down from the absence of your body heat.
Itll cost you $50.
Ive just gone through the same process myself.
Good luck and stick it to those pricks.

#60 Smoking Man on 07.08.16 at 7:48 pm

#42 Quebec is Great on 07.08.16 at 6:57 pm
Smoking man mentioned usd/cad @1.4 for exports to be competitive. I feel we’ll be seeing a run to 1.65 within a year with it settling at 1.45 or even 1.5. Once you take away real estate (and construction spinoffs) and oil, there doesnt seem to be much of anything substantial left.
…….

Only thing left pun intended is 3 levels of communist governments. Nothing frightenes off investment and jobs than Freek show no brains like Wynee and T2.

A Usdcad at 1.98 is not out of the equation with these clowns

#61 Andrew Woburn on 07.08.16 at 7:52 pm

Things you thought you’d never see.

“Alberta Premier Rachel Notley says no unnecessary federal delays for oil pipelines. A decision has to be made”

There again, it was Nixon that went to China. Maybe we need a true left winger to get us a pipeline.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/notley-no-pipeline-delays-1.3671209

#62 For those about to flop... on 07.08.16 at 7:54 pm

I drive by this house on the way to work at the moment.

It is a couple of years old and it seems to have spent more time on the market than not.

It’s B.C assessment for last year was 2.8 million.

A lot of different realtors have had a crack at the title and earlier this year they had it on for 4.2 but then they decided that that wasn’t being greedy enough and put it back of the market for 4.388

The sun has already weathered this house and it is on a noisy corner of Oak and 33rd.

No sympathy for folks like these…

M42BC

http://www.rew.ca/agents/2125/sueann-fong/my-listings

#63 Grantmi on 07.08.16 at 7:55 pm

Now I’ve been following the insanity in Vancouver for a while and had subscribed to a couple of realtors’ newsletters and receive “superb opportunities” all the time. I sometimes open them up randomly and I was shocked yesterday when I saw our previous apartment up for sale, just one month after they kicked us out! And guess what, they replaced the carpet with laminate flooring and that apparently added $111,000 (15%) of value and it is now listed for $799,900! Maybe the laminates are gold coated, who knows?

Well first off! You’re an idiot for believing that story. (My parents are moving in!! lol.. Yea… and My Dog eat my homework too!!)

I would have gotten in writing first. or you won’t be leaving. Let him try and kick you out.

If a house is sold and you have a legal rental agreement with the previous landlord, they can not force you out. they have to honor the previous agreement. (including rent level) and if they don’t and someone is legitimately moving in like a parent (no uncles or half brothers)… they have to give you 2 months moving time allowance and also one months notice (first of the month. None of this 16th of the month when the house closes).

Anyway! Horse left barn! But… Dude.. you got douched!! (life lessons)

#64 Ottawa_Male on 07.08.16 at 7:57 pm

An Ottawa neighbour of mine just sold his executive townhouse for $350K. It was on the market for 2.5 weeks. He got exactly the asking price.

People in Toronto and Vancouver are idiots.

#65 Harden on 07.08.16 at 8:00 pm

According to shiny new govt data it’s suggested there’s a 95% chance the condo in Yaletown is being flipped by a realtor er local.

#66 The Wet Coast on 07.08.16 at 8:01 pm

Coming home from the mighty US. Sold my south Georgia estate (think 4500 sq ft, pool and 5 acres) for $325,000 USD. The main reason I couldn’t get more is the banks wouldn’t lend more in my area. So the guys that learned were…..

Got 2 mill in Presidents and renting in Port Moody. Burn baby burn….been to this movie in 2008 in Arizona.

Let me introduce everyone to a new term….underwater. Folks could walk away from a house in the US and get some air…not so in Canada where mortgage debt is for life…except in Alberta. But hell Albertan’s are really Americans anyway

#67 TurnerNation on 07.08.16 at 8:02 pm

I was born a male but identity as a Blog Dog.

(B) on the ID.

#68 TurnerNation on 07.08.16 at 8:07 pm

21 Eco Capitalist I recommend Morguard’s rentals (also a REIT natch).

They have lux building in Yorkville.
A newer King St. W.
And a brand new lux in Forest Hill beside subway entrance.

Endless garnet [sic] and amenities.

Come live the easy rental lifestyle. If it flys, float or flaunts ( granite) , rent it.

#69 Freedom First on 07.08.16 at 8:07 pm

When you try to correct a fool, they will hate you for it. When you correct a wise man, he will thank you.

Body Armour. Good one.

For myself, when dealing with others face to face, I always ask myself, “would I rather be right, or would I rather be happy”. Hence, my keeping a low profile in my personal life.

Most people, like the Americans, Japanese, Europeans, etc., only learned about the danger of one asset strategy financial deviance, by personally being forever burned by the housing crashes they recently went through.

Tough way to learn. Learning Herdinonomis is much easier. It’s been the same throughout history.

As always, myFreedom First.

#70 Smoking Man on 07.08.16 at 8:10 pm

Turner Nation.

There is another Dr Herdonomics that writes a bit better than me. He was a tenured professor at Ottawa university but got fired for giving his students all A, s

Dr Smoking Man

On my linked in proffecional profile we are connected. I’m either stupid or have huge balls or a combo of both.

Enjoy the article. He’s a real teacher in my books.

http://dissidentvoice.org/2016/06/carding-and-random-murder/

#71 Freedom First on 07.08.16 at 8:11 pm

#25 Good Grief

Relax. My 22 year old girlfriend will look after it.

#72 Ex-Cowtown on 07.08.16 at 8:11 pm

Body armour??? Real men wear UnderArmour. It never pinches and it’s more supportive of the boys than T2 at a Pride parade. But I digress.

I see the biggest threat to the US is the bipolar society that they live in which is just egged on by the Obama and Hillary. Every facet of life in the US seems to be an us vs. them fight. The concept of cooperation is lost on them. Which is strange given that they appear hell bent on sliding into totalitarian collectivism.

#73 For those about to flop... on 07.08.16 at 8:12 pm

So, if you think people on this pathetic blog are pissed now, just wait.

I’m buying body armour.- Garth.

/////////////////////////////

Yeah great ,stir the pot knowing full well I agreed to be your stunt double for a year if France wins on Sunday.

I’m going to start putting on weight so I have some extra padding.

Nice one Guvnor…

M42BC

#74 S.Bby on 07.08.16 at 8:14 pm

The madness continues in YVR:
Potential condo buyers camp out — in Abbotsford

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/abbotsford-condo-campout-1.3671198?cmp=rss

total madness…

#75 Market Man on 07.08.16 at 8:15 pm

6 homes have sold on my street in the last two years
Only 2 homes ended up in the hands of families
4 are used as rental properties

Speculators are driving this market
I dont think new mortgage rules will slow down speculators
I live in Toronto – mid town

#76 Alyssa Hanes on 07.08.16 at 8:19 pm

Canadian REIT’s will be subject to the same blocked redemption and withdrawal pains like in the U.K.

It is coming soon.

That was funny. — Garth

#77 Mark M. on 07.08.16 at 8:20 pm

Oh yes Garth, talk of rate hikes is back. What was it again, four this year?

Can’t wait for you, The American and WalMark of Saskatoon to explain why they don’t hike at all this year. Should be epic.

#78 Don on 07.08.16 at 8:21 pm

Victoria realestate at it again……. No foreign buyers here yup…….. Posting how Victoria is crashing meanwhile real house prices are up double digits once again. He’ll be posting this nonsense again next year quoting more phony numbers.

#79 S.Bby on 07.08.16 at 8:21 pm

I work with someone from the states (Washington DC) and they are renting in Vancouver. They say this is the same bubble, worse, even, than the plunge they went through down there. No way will they buy here.

#80 TurnerNation on 07.08.16 at 8:24 pm

From the Smoking man dept: speaking of kando amenities, if it’s been a long week and you wish to sneak in some gym time before going out for the evening pour a liberal amount of a cheap conservative whiskey (think CC, CR) into your Protien shake, guzzle down then hit the gym. Relaxes the body. Those 50lb free weights felt lighter.

Just protecting my “SMV”.

#rentallifestyle
#livinginmyinvestment

M40ON

#81 Doug in London on 07.08.16 at 8:29 pm

@Dr. Talc, post #46:
Mistake #2 He’s a tenant
————————————————
You don’t know his circumstances. He may have arrived there in the last few years, saw high prices, wisely kept out of the market and invested the difference between high mortgage payments and rent, and built up a good portfolio. He may also be in a job where being mobile to follow different opportunities like promotions is an asset. Come to think of it, being mobile in today’s volatile employment market is a good thing. So he has mobility and a good highly portable portfolio. Doesn’t look like a loser at all to me.

#82 joblo on 07.08.16 at 8:31 pm

Vancouver blah, GTA blah, blah blah.
Answer this:

What happens to Deutsche Bank’s derivative book, which has a notional value of €52 trillion, if the bank is insolvent?

#83 Chelsea on 07.08.16 at 8:35 pm

Living in BC …. With all the hype of RE changes, rates etc. the house prices keep rising, especially the new listings …. where are the concrete changes !!!!!! okay, sellers are not shifting on their asking price …. the nice homes are gone … what is left are the dumps and left overs of a www3 chaos …. I HEAR AND READ OF MASSIVE OVERHAUL TO RE … BUT NOT SEEING OR FEELING IT …. enough is enough ….

#84 Freeman on 07.08.16 at 8:41 pm

DELETED

#85 ANON on 07.08.16 at 8:42 pm

I’m buying body armour.

Beans. Lots of beans.
–Neo (outside of the Matrix)

#86 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 07.08.16 at 8:53 pm

I feel we’ll be seeing a run to 1.65

i hope yer rite

#87 46 and 2 on 07.08.16 at 8:59 pm

You know, I have kind of hung around this “thing” for a number of years but just posted a few times. From what I see, bottom line, there are about 100 of you from all over the place that have been and are convinced that since 2008 some form of huge RE correction “armageddon” with zombies and shit will and is about to happen. You are all wrong in the past present and future. My advice, in the words of Garth, get lives….and hurry.

#88 tkid on 07.08.16 at 9:00 pm

Better prospects bring out more job-seekers, and vice versa. Not too hard to grasp. — Garth

Now you sound like Zerohedge 2 years ago.

I sound like an economist. It’s fact. — Garth

#89 Basil Fawlty on 07.08.16 at 9:01 pm

This blog post is concerning in that the ongoing ridicule of those who voted to leave the EU, implies a disrespect for democracy. If one does not support democratically made decisions, then what type of political system do they support?

No ridicule. They just made a mistake. Like Trump. — Garth

#90 steerage steward on 07.08.16 at 9:06 pm

Oddly enough regulation of body armor is per Province, Garth is fine in Ontario.

Here in lovely BC we have something called the Body Armor Control Act, which highly restricts ownership to eg; an armoured car guard, security guard, greaterfool forum administrator, etc.

http://www.bclaws.ca/civix/document/id/consol22/consol22/00_09024_01#part1

#91 Nemesis on 07.08.16 at 9:09 pm

‘And mutiny over at GreaterFool.” – CaptainGarto

#WhatWouldCharlesLaughtonDo?…

https://youtu.be/HWsLMHw5JnQ?t=1m8s

#92 Cici on 07.08.16 at 9:29 pm

#17

Yeah, wait until prices stop climbing, or Good Grief start declining…then you’ll see how debt-fuelled this bubble really is.

#93 Gramps on 07.08.16 at 9:48 pm

Let’s deport all speculators to the states.
They might see it as an opportunity.
We might see it as a relief.
And it might lower my taxes by reducing future bailouts.
And the states will get a housing market boom.
I’d call that a win-win.
:)

#94 not 1st on 07.08.16 at 10:09 pm

“….That’s to be expected when you reach what I would argue is full employment.”

So 100 million people will remain unemployed and underemployed and dependent on food stamps and we will call this economy a success? Really?

Food stamps (the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) provides help to 46 million Americans, and is similar to the Canadian child benefit (but our program pays about five times more, to a greater percentage of the populatioon). Most recipients are employed. The number of unemployed in the US is currently 7.7 million. Stop embarrassing yourself. — Garth

#95 steerage steward on 07.08.16 at 10:12 pm

Hope I can continue to rent in a building that is older then I am.

The owner (who lives here) is 86 years old. She told me how her finger nails were broken clearing bricks after the bombings in Germany.

It’s good to have a sense of history

#96 Lee bow on 07.08.16 at 10:21 pm

Isn’t owning body armour illegal in Canada? Don’t want you to land in trouble, Sir.

A personal question. Mr Garth, do you not regret even a tiny little bit that you didn’t participate just for a week in that glorious bubble? You could have made another million. And, isn’t there any anthropological value in what’s going on?

#97 Andrew Woburn on 07.08.16 at 10:24 pm

#82 joblo on 07.08.16 at 8:31 pm
Vancouver blah, GTA blah, blah blah.
Answer this:

What happens to Deutsche Bank’s derivative book, which has a notional value of €52 trillion, if the bank is insolvent?
=========================

Perhaps this will help

http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/05/26/2016/deutsche-bank-scares-you-omg-you-must-read

#98 Smoking Man on 07.08.16 at 10:26 pm

The truth be told. No lives matter in this jungle.

Lives are used as pawns in the grand poker match of the ruling elites and there egos. Like in the movie the Highlander. There can be only one.

It’s primal human nature.

You start off naked, grow up make your first million thinking your smart, your ego grows. Never factoring in luck.

Make your first billion you start think your a God.

10 billion plus your a God’s God. Your so use to getting your way any resistance can be payed to go away.

Now you have your 10 billion plusers around the world in disagreement go to lengths end to win the argument. They fund and create social movements to out manuver there apponents.

And the pawns wear tee shirts supporting the team they were mind fkd to belive in.

Only life that really matters is yours. Cherish it. Don’t give it up to a billionare.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#99 Basil Fawlty on 07.08.16 at 10:36 pm

Suggesting the leave side made a mistake, is your opinion, which you are entitled to, thank God. Personally, I am of the opinion they made the correct decision.
Regarding Trump, sure the guy has some quirky ideas, which leaves Hillary. Who is more scary?

#100 abc on 07.08.16 at 10:39 pm

http://www.canada.com/opinion/op-ed/opinion+vancouver+housing+bubble+burst/12035593/story.html

neat story, I think we are beginning to see the revulsion stage

#101 Annek on 07.08.16 at 10:52 pm

I had a BMO financial advisor visit me today to get me to sign on. He told me he manages $49 Million worth of accounts. He says he makes $400,000 per year. He has 2 real estate investments and he is buying a third in addition to investment in the markets. He showed me a bank draft of $250,000 for a deposit on this piece of real estate. This will be a rental building with 11 units on Bathurst in Toronto. When he told me that he had several investments in real estate in Toronto , I had immediatly stated he should sell, take his profits. But he is convinced this is for the long term. My question is: Will buildings with rental units crash the same as other real estate? I suspect they will, but I may be wrong. In which case, do I want this guy giving me investment advice?. ( he charges 1.6 per cent fees, $250,000 min)

Get rid of the hustler. — Garth

#102 Ole Doberman on 07.08.16 at 11:04 pm

#96 Lee bow on 07.08.16 at 10:21 pm

Isn’t owning body armour illegal in Canada? Don’t want you to land in trouble, Sir.

A personal question. Mr Garth, do you not regret even a tiny little bit that you didn’t participate just for a week in that glorious bubble? You could have made another million. And, isn’t there any anthropological value in what’s going on?
——————————————————–
Stupid question for Garth, like when people asked Buffet if he regretted not participating in the .coms – and we know how that ended.

#103 Ole Doberman on 07.08.16 at 11:08 pm

Wow you guys remember Oliver Cres. going for $3.8 – well price is relisted for $3.6 million, sign of things to come?

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2088271/2348-oliver-crescent-vancouver

Doberman does it again…..

#104 Kat on 07.08.16 at 11:10 pm

I find it interesting this data only used stats from CMHC on people who insured through them and that it was voluntary as well. From what I understand from my two realtor friends the data is very wrong as the Asian buyers usually pay cash and many put it under their corporations names as well or under family and friends who live here or even under lawyers names as well. Very easy to hide their identity. Maybe if the parameters were different it would show a different story. I do not understand you saying that when people see their city being bought up by rich foreigners it is racist to be upset. All of my friends are angry at the government for not having better policy and don’t really hold any hate against the people taking advantage
of our loose rules. That being said locals who are buying beyond their means, speculating and just plain being stupid are also contributing to this very large bubble. I hope it is not as bad as what happened in the US, sure I want to own but I also like being employed.

#105 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.08.16 at 11:10 pm

Food stamps (the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) provides help to 46 million Americans, and is similar to the Canadian child benefit (but our program pays about five times more, to a greater percentage of the populatioon). Most recipients are employed. The number of unemployed in the US is currently 7.7 million. Stop embarrassing yourself. — Garth
————
7.7 million is like the population of Iceland and Austria.
Over 40 million on food stamps.
Europeans used food stamps after the food shortages of WW2.
I wonder how many Americans rely on Foodbanks?
That’s what you get when you spend 40% on military and internal security.

#106 Smoking Man on 07.08.16 at 11:26 pm

My Dad

Friday, July 8, 2016
11:10 PM

The other day.

99 Years old, mind is gone, body strong, He slips and falls and breaks his hip.
He’s rushed to the hospital, I get the call.

Your father fell, go to the hospital.

Never in my life have doctors been so available, long conversations. Every now and then you should consider signing a DNR. Which trips my mind back to my youth, him holding my hand taking me skating at duffern rink as kid, taken me to hockey practice, watched every single hockey game I played, every fight on the ice, all the way up to Jr..

I never cried so much in my life as I did tonight. They were looking for my blessing to take him out of his pain. And I never gave it. Then a guy called me back, the closer Dr. No

I agreed, lets take away his suffering. Then I snapped out of it.

I will have an autopsy and I will sue the shit out of you if you kill him with the heart drugs, his Blood pressure is 120 over 80.

They have him in restraints because he wants to get up and walk, but is incapable of understanding that is not good.

I always go back to my true belief , your worced day on earth is better than your best day 6 feet underground.

Let god decide. Dad unlike me was a believer. And he saw it all in Nazi concentration camps.

But then, more tears, tonight he was calling out his moms name, and my moms name.

First time in my life I can’t make pick a winner.

#107 SI2K on 07.08.16 at 11:31 pm

I’ve seen this happen to a lot of renters in the GGH, and it’s an especially huge problem, displacement, if you’ve got kids in the local school district. Awful tenant act enforcement may be an underappreciated cause of this bubble, imo. I’ve moved around a lot for my career in the U.S. and Europe, and Toronto has the worst rental housing stock/most corrupt set of landlords I’ve ever encountered, hands down. (Oakland is second.) I always consider that when I see this anti-renting trend among Canadians. We can’t stand the Toronto rental market, either. It’s even interfered with our careers – all the time and energy screwing around with awful landlords and moldy housing and the useless tribunal. I totally see why people are crawling all over themselves to buy something clean and long term here. That’s one aspect of this bubble that I think this story highlights well.

#108 For those about to flop... on 07.08.16 at 11:33 pm

Hey WULLY, i saw you put up some song lyrics the other day about stuff going on.

Emmy Lou Harris or something like that.

Well I heard this verse from a Serena Ryder today during “Stompa”and it made me think of what’s going on in the Couv.

“People working every night and day
Never give yourself no time
Got too many bills to pay
Slow down, nothing’s gonna disappear
If you give yourself some room
To move to the music you hear”

M42BC

#109 ROTFL on 07.08.16 at 11:39 pm

Distant Speculators and Asset Bubbles in the Housing Market

We investigate the role of out of town second house buyers (so-called “distant speculators”) in bubble formation during the recent housing boom. Distant speculators are likely to have an excessive reliance on capital gains for financial returns and be less informed about local market conditions much like noise traders in many financial models. Using transactions level data that allows us to identify the address of the property owner, we show that increases in purchases by distant speculators (but not local speculators) are strongly correlated with high house price appreciation rates and log implied to actual rent ratios—a proxy for mispricing in the housing market. […] Consistent with the model, we show that the size of the investment market that out of town second house buyers come from is positively related to the impact of distant speculators […] We conclude by pointing out similarities between the US housing bubble and housing bubbles in other countries such as Spain, where a large influx of distant speculators from Germany and Britain appear to have driven up prices. In particular, we note that purchases by distant speculators represented as much as 5% of local output in Las Vegas, a similar estimate to the share of foreign direct investment in Spain during the housing bubble of 2007 and 2008.f

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/behfin/2012-04-11/Chinco_Mayer.pdf

#110 albertaguy on 07.08.16 at 11:45 pm

Smokey..My mom just had a hip replaced this week at 86 – she is sharp and with it and but the rehab might kill her – im thinking of you and your dad tonight

AB

#111 dr talc on 07.08.16 at 11:57 pm

#81 Doug in London on 07.08.16 at 8:29 pm
@Dr. Talc, post #46:
Mistake #2 He’s a tenant
————————————————
You don’t know his circumstances.
——-

i’m assuming he is fictitious
if he is real, i apologise for the sarcasm

#112 [email protected] on 07.09.16 at 12:03 am

So funny photo haha..How’s the baby now? ;)

#113 Sheane Wallace on 07.09.16 at 12:05 am

#76 Alyssa Hanes on 07.08.16 at 8:19 pm
Canadian REIT’s will be subject to the same blocked redemption and withdrawal pains like in the U.K.

It is coming soon.

That was funny. — Garth
—————————

Capital controls are coming one way or another.
Maybe not REIT withdrawals but controls of bank withdrawals?

It amuses me that there are still idiots hoarding GISs at the banks for no interest whatsoever with all these investing opportunities.

BTW if you transfer 10 k abroad you are watched and could be investigated or at least questioned, but when you buy 1.3 + million shack in To/Van with 150 k income this is perceived as normal and no agency will investigate you. they will rather gladly ‘insure’ your ultra-subprime criminal mortgage.

As for real estate ‘markets’ it is evident – sponsored and propped up markets to hide the complete devastation from outsourcing and the total destruction of the economy with housing bubble hoping that it will not blow up in their watch.

Have you seen what king of cowards Farage and Boris really are? Who leaves politics when they win? Just watch out when it blows here. Coffee at $ 10 canucistan dollars/pesos would be cheap.

#114 Sheane Wallace on 07.09.16 at 12:11 am

#101 Annek

The best investment advise I can give you is to move all you money and assets outside of this country, it is that simple.

#115 NotAGreaterFool on 07.09.16 at 12:40 am

Garth – It appears to be you no longer feel a ‘slow thaw’ is probable for the housing market. Is it possible, while in the past you may had felt that way, that you now feel this balloon will pop? If so, just say it…POP!

#116 For those about to flop... on 07.09.16 at 12:43 am

Some people were talking about languages in Canada the other day.

I dug this chart of Canada out.

It is from 2011 census and states language and numbers of the most spoken language besides English and French in each province and territories.

Things would have changed a bit,but you will get the gist…

M42BC

https://imgur.com/91GtJyS

#117 There Will be No 2008 Reruns - Garth on 07.09.16 at 1:00 am

Coming Soon From Europe: The Next Global Financial Crisis

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3987017-coming-soon-europe-next-global-financial-crisis

#118 Charles Tipple on 07.09.16 at 1:07 am

You’d better buy the Kevlar branded gear, cause there’s more to come.

“Traders are now pricing in 26 percent odds Canada’s central bank will cut interest rates in December, a little more than half where the probability was on Thursday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”

With emergency rates now permanent and ‘Chinese Dudes’ paying cash with untaxed Yuan, and baby bonus cheques pumping up mortgage qualifications we can expect at least another 30% rise in prices because all these factored in affordable is still on the table.

Speaking of affordable, a picked MBT as one of my low hanging fruit stocks when takeover rumours started a couple years ago….picked up a lump…and just got taken out by BCE at $40 per share. Easy money having money these days.

#119 Stan on 07.09.16 at 1:59 am

You actually believe US job numbers, or any other government statistic?

#120 Love My Kia on 07.09.16 at 2:14 am

106 Smoking Man on 07.08.16 at 11:26 pm
========================
I’ve been there, and if I could change a few things with my dad I would.

He wanted to be free of the incredible pain he was suffering from, and me in my selfishness not wanting to let him go wanted him to hang on.

Keep in your central focus right now what your father wants, and ONLY what he wants, not you or anyone else. If he wants to let go, give him that permission. He is a man of faith and its his journey to take as heartbreaking as it is.

I’m not sure after witnessing the pain my father went through with his cancer that the worst day on earth is better than underground. Its incredible how much pain a human can endure.

I normally think of you as a collossal jackass Smokey, but I don’t wish this on you at all. I understand how it feels to watch someone you care about drowning with your hands tied behind your back.

My thoughts are for you at this time. From a pinko.

#121 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 07.09.16 at 2:41 am

on death

https://youtu.be/m8gR4sQvjt4

#122 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.09.16 at 2:50 am

Really British Columbians!

Get your BS detectors working and let the 3 levels of governments know we won’t take it anymore.

Vote them out next election if they do nothing!

The City governments in Lower Mainland are sitting on record numbers of projects that they simply will not approve without a 2 year wait. Who do they think they are? There is need for housing and they think they have a right to throw roadblocks in front of development?

We have campers in front of an Abbotsford development hoping to “win” a Condo!

There is enough land between Vancouver and Abbotsford to house all of Canada but we pander to Nimbys every step of the way.

#123 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.09.16 at 3:00 am

Like I said. Canadians are soft touch, milk toast, naive in the extreme.

(North added that, on larger transactions such as multi-family buildings, a Chinese national can open a Vancouver office. )

“Name the company Maple Leaf Enterprise and hire Joan Smith to head it. Suddenly you’re a Canadian investor. Actually, that would be a good way to go if you’re a long-term investor.”

Burley agreed that is common for Chinese nationals to use local residents or companies as proxies when purchasing foreign real estate. But how many? “I have no idea,” Burley said, “I don’t think anyone does.”

#124 BS on 07.09.16 at 3:47 am

#101 Annek on 07.08.16 at 10:52 pm

I had a BMO financial advisor visit me today to get me to sign on. He told me he manages $49 Million worth of accounts. He says he makes $400,000 per year. He has 2 real estate investments and he is buying a third in addition to investment in the markets. He showed me a bank draft of $250,000 for a deposit on this piece of real estate. This will be a rental building with 11 units on Bathurst in Toronto. When he told me that he had several investments in real estate in Toronto , I had immediatly stated he should sell, take his profits. But he is convinced this is for the long term. My question is: Will buildings with rental units crash the same as other real estate? I suspect they will, but I may be wrong. In which case, do I want this guy giving me investment advice?. ( he charges 1.6 per cent fees, $250,000 min)

Sounds like a slam dunk. But, did he mention how many ‘hot chicks’ he has? That is really the key. If he says he has lots of hot chicks then for sure put all your money with him.

Regarding rental units of course those cannot crash. Who cares if the yield is 1%. The price can only go up long term. Everyone will be looking for a 1% cap rate to plunge toilets and manage a building.

The only question I may have is why is a guy so rich and successful still working at a bank? My guess is he just likes helping people like you make money. He really doesn’t need the annual guaranteed 1.6% fee on your money plus the hidden commissions that skim most of your return from the funds he sells you. Then more commissions when you sell the funds after several years of making nothing or losses. Don’t worry it will all be done in your best interest. He is just there to help you.

#125 TnT on 07.09.16 at 7:46 am

#123 BS on 07.09.16 at 3:47 am

Nearly spit my coffee out, so funny

#126 CJBob on 07.09.16 at 8:08 am

#118 Stan on 07.09.16 at 1:59 am
You actually believe US job numbers, or any other government statistic?
_______________________
You’re right Stan, but don’t post here they are following us. And double up on the tin foil in your hat, they can still read your mind through the single layer.

#127 shawn on 07.09.16 at 8:58 am

Racism… must end

Garth has called out racism at every turn.

The police shootings (by and of) in the U.S. this last week highlight that racism must be stamped out.

Racism is no longer socially acceptable and must be called out at every turn.

In today’s world young people have to compete with all races. And why not? Get over it and get on with it and call out racism wherever you see it. People are people and they all deserve respect.

#128 Arfmooocat on 07.09.16 at 9:10 am

#123

LMFAO

#129 AK on 07.09.16 at 9:14 am

#101 Annek on 07.08.16 at 10:52 pm
“I had a BMO financial advisor visit me today to get me to sign on.”
===================================
Interesting. I never knew that Bank financial advisors made home visits.
I always thought that you had to visit them…

#130 shawn on 07.09.16 at 9:14 am

Some people doubt the U.S recovery and stock market levels.

Fair enough.

Others make money by owning U.S. businesses.

To each his own opinion.

#131 busman7 on 07.09.16 at 9:23 am

WOW!

Sure glad I retired to the tropics and have enough property for all my kids to live on should the need arise.

BTW I love my Kia. :)

#132 Valeyboy on 07.09.16 at 9:24 am

These 280k jobs added are they jobs added on top of all the people retiring each month. Or are they jobs just replacing retirees.

#133 Arfmooocat on 07.09.16 at 9:33 am

Trump is a Nutjob. At least Hillary had the dignity to stay with the guy who got his dixxxck sucked in the oral office. Now that’s class.

#134 Zen Headspace on 07.09.16 at 9:51 am

Our minds are wired to select and interpret evidence supporting the hypothesis: “I’m OK”.

A variety of mechanisms: conscious, unconscious, and social direct our attention to ignore the bad and highlight the good in order to increase our hope and reduce our anxiety. We work hard to retain the belief that “I’m OK” even when faced with evidence of significant losses or the prospect thereof.

Self-justification is deeply ingrained in each of us. Mental schema make it easier for us to perceive information that supports what we already know or believe.
Unfortunately we often get it wrong.

Our thinking is the result of our own perception, judgment, experience, and bias. Our brain distorts reality to increase our self-esteem through self-justification. People perceive themselves readily as the origins of good effects and reluctantly as the origins of ill effects. We present a one-sided argument to ourselves.

Case in point: “It was a good idea to take on a mortgage for 90% of the cost of an obscenely overpriced house in a super-bubble real estate market, even though I have zero liquid financial assets, poor cash flow, and a mediocre income, because home prices will always go up at the same rate they are now and never come down, and there will always be lots of buyers if I want to sell at a big profit”.

There is much animosity in the comments on this blog, all of it seriously misguided and misdirected. People are scared, whether they know it or not. Many have made poor financial decisions and resent the suggestion that they will soon be in precarious positions. They want to believe that all will be well forever.

Impermanence and change are the undeniable truths of our existence. What is real is only the existing moment. Because of ignorance, an ordinary mind conceives of current phenomena all to be part of one continuous reality. But in truth they are not.

Get liquid. Get diversified. Be water.

#135 Moron Face on 07.09.16 at 9:55 am

Despite the fact that EMs and international markets are undervalued, the US will continue to perform well for the forseable future relatively speaking. EMs posted an extreme cyclical top in 2007. They’re currently at a cyclical bottom. They’re a buy here and will likely experience a catch up trade with the S&P 500, but this will take time. Despite this, the global growth story will remain an American technological growth story. There is only one USA. They innovate like no other country in the world.

#136 Moron Face on 07.09.16 at 10:00 am

One must remain “Zero Canada”. The TSX is 39% oligopolistic banks heavily exposed to Canadian residential real estate. The TSX is <4% technology.

On the equity side, Canada is uninvestable. It's too small relative to the global marketplace (3.5% of the MSCI world index) and extremely undiversified.

In addition, the $CAD may face severe headwinds relative to USD and other global currencies.

It's unfortunate that tax treatment in Canada favours Canadian investments. Regardless, I stay away…

"Tell me where I'm going to die so I never go there." – WB

#137 Joe2.0 on 07.09.16 at 10:07 am

Hows the baby now..

After watching years of banking commercials pumping Realestate and RE targeting news broadcasts the baby grew up and borrowed the maximum amount of money and now has his back against the wall…

#138 economictsunami on 07.09.16 at 10:15 am

So, let’s look under the headline numbers of the Jobs Report:

Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey

The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every month. It is based on employer reporting.

The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.

If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.

Looking for jobs on Monster does not count as “looking for a job”. You need an actual interview or send out a resume.

These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.”

https://mishtalk.com/2016/07/08/jobs-287000-employment-67000-third-anemic-household-report/

Meanwhile across the pond, Brexit can’t be blamed for everything but will:

This chart highlights one of Europe’s biggest problems

“Overall, the EU youth unemployment rate is about 20%. However, the countries with the highest rates — Greece, Spain, Croatia, and Italy — are all in the stunningly high 40-50% zone. These numbers are among the highest in the world.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/youth-unemployment-in-europe-2016-7

Video: Grant Williams, founder & publisher of the ‘Things That Make You Go Hmmm…’

CRAZY – A STORY OF DEBT: ‘This is the chart to rule them all’

http://www.businessinsider.com/real-vision-tv-co-founder-grant-williams-shares-video-on-global-debt-crisis-2016-7

https://realvisiontv.com/landing/crazy

The Song Remains the Same…

#139 BOOM! on 07.09.16 at 10:34 am

#106 Smoking Man

I feel for your decision here. He is 99, you say his mind is gone.
Yes, he is your father, you love him, I think I understand that.

What if that were your dog, your faithful friend for years.
Would you want him restrained, in pain, or would you make the painful decision needed to relieve his pain?

I see this as a ‘simple’ decision, but then ….that is me.

Best- Boom!

#140 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 07.09.16 at 10:47 am

#20 AK on 07.08.16 at 6:13 pm

“Not only they are not buying houses, they are also staying away from the stock market.

There is still a lot of money on the sidelines, which explains why the 10 year bond is heading down to 1.25%…”

No it doesn’t. — Garth
____________________________________________

The phrase “money on the sidelines” is worse than meaningless. For every purchase of stock, a seller receives cash, and if she turns around and uses the cash to buy new stock, that seller will receive cash. At all points in time there is the exact same amount of cash.

Cash is only removed when banks reign in credit, or thee FED removes it.

There is no SIDELINES. Someone must hold the cash at any given point in time, and lately, cash is like a hot potato.

#141 common sense on 07.09.16 at 11:05 am

#106 Smokey

My thoughts go out to your dad and you.

I agree with Love my KIA @ 119

My dad at 92 fought Diabetes for years and one day just said “I had enough.” “Dad want to see a dr. or go to the hospital?” – NO…2 weeks later, one morning I saw him and he looked white and bad… he answered every question I asked him, performed every task with a smile on his face…one last “Shall we go to the hospital?” Nope.

He died 4 hours later at home in his favorite chair watching the Masters holding mom my’s hand…on his own terms.

No regrets..it was his life and choice.

I wish you, your family and your father peace and grace. Take care.

#142 common sense on 07.09.16 at 11:07 am

#123 BS

It’s always great when people are screwing you, smiling in your face when all they want to do is HELP you?

Great post.

#143 NorthVanEE on 07.09.16 at 11:37 am

Message for Sam
I would like to know what you were paying for rent on a DT one bedroom+den that first sold for 688K and now pushing the limit at 800K. What are you now paying for the next place?

What is the going price for rent in the area? I hope you found something and have not been pushed out of the area.

#144 ROTFL on 07.09.16 at 11:42 am

I’m less bullish than Garth is on the US economy. A few data points:

If they’re anywhere near full employment, that’s bad news indeed. Here’s U6 unemployment (unemployed + underemployed + too lazy/despondent to look for a job in the last 4 weeks, but looked in the past year) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE It’s only down to about where it PEAKED in the previous cycle. Crappy.

Industrial production peaked 18 months ago, and has been falling since. Light vehicle sales peaked last fall, despite a LOT of support from the used market via subprime financing by the likes of Santander and AmeriCredit. Housing starts have been going sideways for a year, at a level not far off the BOTTOMS of previous cycles going back to the 1960s.

The bull case is to back energy companies’ earnings out of the S&P 500 and say things still look… OK, and mumble about the high dollar’s effects on foreign sales. Fact is, the US recovery looks out of puff even excluding the possible effects of a European crisis (pick your favourite flavour) or a China crisis.

I was a bull cheerleader until about six months ago. They say bull markets don’t die of old age, and it certainly doesn’t feel like the euphoria typical before a top (but we haven’t seen a new high in HOW LONG?). On the other hand, professionals and amateurs alike have a terrible track record of predicting recessions, so the fact that few outside the loony fringe are predicting one shouldn’t be a comfort at all. But hey, if you’re still bullish, some US and international cyclicals look positively cheap. Ford, General Motors, Toyota, Dow Chemical — single digit P/Es. Fill your boots.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldQpRMegYc0

#145 Nomad on 07.09.16 at 11:51 am

Garth, I’m scared about our pension.
University of Toronto employees just received an email titled:

“Pension Plan Sustainability”

The email is understandable. It ends with:

“There will be much work ahead as we continue to strive to provide pension plan benefits that are sustainable and affordable for both our Institution and Plan members. We will continue to provide updates as we progress. ”

Commute! — Garth

#146 jess on 07.09.16 at 11:57 am

Between 6 and 7 per cent of the prime-age male population was in prison at some point during their lives in 2008(oecd)
“These men are substantially more likely to experience joblessness after they are released from prison and in many states are legally barred from a significant number of jobs,”
http://www.statista.com/statistics/300986/incarceration-rates-in-oecd-countries/
===============
Tens of thousands of people every year are sent to jail based on the results of a $2 roadside drug test. Widespread evidence shows
that these tests routinely produce false positives. Why are police departments and prosecutors still using them? Read the story.
https://www.propublica.org/

for-profit prisoner transport
Inside the Deadly World of Private Prisoner Transport
Tens of thousands of people every year are packed into vans run by for-profit companies with almost no oversight.
https://www.themarshallproject.org/2016/07/06/inside-the-deadly-world-of-private-prisoner-transport?utm_medium=socialutm_campaign=sprout&utm_source=twitter#.0wD11Q3JZ

#147 AK on 07.09.16 at 12:31 pm

#139 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 07.09.16 at 10:47 am
#20 AK on 07.08.16 at 6:13 pm

“The phrase “money on the sidelines” is worse than meaningless. For every purchase of stock, a seller receives cash, and if she turns around and uses the cash to buy new stock, that seller will receive cash. At all points in time there is the exact same amount of cash.
====================================

And if the seller does not turn around and buy another stock, the money sits in worthless money market accounts.

Billions have been payed out in dividends since November of 2014 and the S&P 500 has done squat since that time. That money is on the “sidelines”.

#148 Ronaldo on 07.09.16 at 12:43 pm

#133 Zen Headspace

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/plagiarizing

#149 Aggregator on 07.09.16 at 12:58 pm

This why I keep saying you have to add MBS on top of CMHC's mortgage insurance balance.

Canada Parliament // Committee Evidence – PACP-15 (2016-05-19)

Nicholas Leswick – I won't argue with the question or the logic that the member presents. I think it's something that we are looking at in the department, in terms of lender risk sharing, so that there's an appropriate distribution of the benefits and the costs across the spectrum of that agreement. That's only to say that things like the mortgage-backed securities program allow a securitization of these mortgages so that the benefits or the exposures are spread not just to banks, but are held in mutual funds and pension funds. It's not just the lender that gets any sort of exposure benefit to that. However, it's definitely something we're looking at.

Hon. Pierre Poilievre – CMHC is stamping those securities, is it not?

Nicholas Leswick – Absolutely.

Hon. Pierre Poilievre – So we're not actually spreading the risk to others. We're bringing it back on to our book when we stamp them, right?

Nicholas Leswick – CMHC is stamping them, yes. They're wholly backed by CMHC, and in effect the government, so the risk is on us. It's just that the exposure, I guess, to some extent, or the benefits…. The exposure to the housing market is not just held wholly within the lending institution.

Hon. Pierre Poilievre – No, it's not held at all within the lending institution. It's held on the backs of the taxpayers.

—-

Wait until they realize CMHC helped Home Capital Group securitize $2 billion dollars of fraudlent mortgages.

#150 Capt. Obvious on 07.09.16 at 1:04 pm

Stupid question for Garth, like when people asked Buffet if he regretted not participating in the .coms – and we know how that ended.

With Amazon at a PE over 300, it’s like we don’t remember.

#151 Dook on 07.09.16 at 1:15 pm

If you browse listings in the 905 area, you’ll notice that rent prices are very disproportionate to what the carrying costs would to buy it.

If you compare it to a market such as southern Florida, where home prices are shooting up, the big difference you’d notice is that the cost of renting versus owning is much higher

Thoughts?

#152 Eco Capitalist on 07.09.16 at 1:26 pm

@#34crowdedelevatorfartz

I’m aware that the top dog doesn’t give out stock tips, but I was hoping he had a resource or two to send people to investigate where renting is concerned. Given how much he exhorts renting, I’d expect he gets the question a lot.

Or did you mean “real estate market” when you said market?

I will never claim it was a great movie, but it’s an entertaining excuse to eat popcorn.

@#68TurnerNation

Thank you for the tip; I shall investigate their properties.

#153 Adam Smith on 07.09.16 at 1:26 pm

Hey Garth!

Was watching The Big Short with my uncle the other night and they mentioned one of the clear signs of a bubble being an increase in fraud. I know a realtor and a couple family members who have been laughing about brokers here covering down payments in exchange for part ownership of homes and simply lying about people’s incomes to get them mortgages so it seems the fraud is thick and heavy.

I’m a young guy in Victoria and am waiting for a correction to try to purchase a house with the ladyfriend and likely with my sister and her husband depending on how long it takes to occur and how much time we have to save up a down-payment.

Is Victoria going to face a major correction as well or will it be pretty minor here? If it does, what kind of properties and price-ranges should get knocked down the hardest?

#154 Ole Doberman on 07.09.16 at 1:42 pm

#106 Smoking Man on 07.08.16 at 11:26 pm

My Dad

Friday, July 8, 2016
11:10 PM

The other day.

99 Years old, mind is gone, body strong, He slips and falls and breaks his hip.
He’s rushed to the hospital, I get the call.

Your father fell, go to the hospital.

Never in my life have doctors been so available, long conversations. Every now and then you should consider signing a DNR. Which trips my mind back to my youth, him holding my hand taking me skating at duffern rink as kid, taken me to hockey practice, watched every single hockey game I played, every fight on the ice, all the way up to Jr..
———————————————————
Smoking this is where the world gets it wrong. Pain and suffering in old age is a form of penance – like a pay back before you move to the after life.

Those who believe they are doing someone a favor by ending it rob that individual of paying for their sins in this life time – which is way better than paying in the next life.

My grandpa broke his leg and spent the last 3 months of his life suffering in a bed at the mercy of his wife’s nursing. He was a Nazi.

I think he made it to purgatory, which is a place of final cleansing before the pearly gates (to put this in layman’s terms), which of course is way better than the firey place below where your thirst never quenches – couldn’t even imagine the horror.

#155 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.09.16 at 1:48 pm

#209 Vamanos Pest on 07.08.16 at 11:41 am
Garth, you’re kind of being drawn into an argument that is beneath you. I agree, the urge to speak out about xenophobia and racism when confronted with it is strong (as it should be). But these losers have made up their minds. Their problems in life are not their own fault, and it’s easiest to blame a group that can be identified on sight.
Let’s stop the argument, and just delete their comments. Sure, it’s a free country, but why not make this blog a totalitarian dictatorship based on tolerance and respect?

You have the power (it’s your blog)
———————————————————-

Vamanos Pest, you’ve got it all figured out, don’t you?
You would make a great dictator!

#156 SWL1976 on 07.09.16 at 1:57 pm

I put about the same amount of merit it the US jobs report as I do the 19 days of stats by Crusty and her crew with the BC libs.

Its quite obvious to some where all this is going, and despite all the beauty in this world, where we are collectively going ain’t pretty.

SM – Sorry to hear the news of your pops. He sounds like quite a character who has lived quite a life, which at the end of the day needs to be celebrated. I hope that everything sorts itself out for you and your family as they should.

#157 Shawn on 07.09.16 at 2:17 pm

There is NO money on the sidelines…

Rock beats paper is 100% correct about this for the reasons stated at post 139.

As further proof of this, consider what would happen if all the mythical money on the sidelines decided to buy stocks. Where would the money go? To the sellers of stock of course, so back to the sidelines. The concept of money on the sidelines is silly since the quantity of money does not change when stocks are bought.

See 139…

The amount of money “in” the stock market is zero. Money flows through the stock market from buyer to seller. Stock values are measured in money. Stocks are wealth but not money.

#158 Shawn on 07.09.16 at 2:27 pm

The Abundance economy

Abundance abounds in this world at least in most of it.

Strolling the Amsterdam streets this Saturday evening are many thousands of people. Hundreds upon hundreds of relatively expensive restaurants and bars are busy. Retail stores abound as well. I see no shortage of spending power.

Perhaps this is mostly tourists. If so they represent thousands of people who had the spending power to visit Amsterdam.

And the local economy here can’t be that bad since I see quite a few help wanted signs.

We clearly live in the best times in world history and yet many people see only doom.

Yeah, I know it’s all fueled by debt and going to end badly according to the doomers. Lenders seem to disagree. We shall see how things unfold. But I see a world of ever increasing spending power. And this is driven by increasing production per person. We can thank the division of labour and technology and the capitalist system including the rule of law and protection of property rights and contract rights for this ever increasing abundance.

#159 TurnerNation on 07.09.16 at 2:33 pm

Smoking man I will read all his stuff.

http://dissidentvoice.org/2016/06/carding-and-random-murder/

‘Strain’ is what they maintaining amongst us.

These days I am thankful I’m a reasonably well off bright guy.

Live to trade, Trade to live is the only way.

#160 Victoria Real Estate Update on 07.09.16 at 2:36 pm

# 78 Don

More realtor BS.

Another new name.

BTW, I noticed that you failed to provide any quotes to prove that I wrote what you say I wrote. This is always the case when a realtor attempts to discredit me. All attempts at this have failed.

You may be referring to the chart I recently posted that showed how, over the last 3 months, the Victoria market’s performance has been weaker, once again, than the rest of Canada. This was based on the Teranet Bank’s house price index. (link)

Of course we saw Victoria’s housing market undergo a significant correction from 2010 to 2014, when house prices across Greater Victoria fell 15-20% while prices in all other major Canadian markets shot higher, by 25-30% or more in some cities.

This is what happened in Oak Bay, based on the local board’s home price index:

. . . . . . . . . . . .House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .Percent Above/Below March 2010 Price Level. .
. . . . . . . x = Toronto, * = Oak Bay. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+25%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+20% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+15%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
….0%. . . x*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . .
—————————————————————————–
. . . . . . March . . . . . . .March. . . . . .January. .
. . . . . . .2010. . . . . . .. 2012. . . . . . .2014. . .

(sources: Victoria’s R/E board, Toronto’s R/E board)

Again, all of the information that I post on this blog is backed by verifiable data. It’s always been that way.

Nice try using a name almost exactly the same as DON, who consistently posts comments with useful information.

I have an idea for you: Use my name…. Actually that’s already been done by another realtor so I couldn’t give you any credit for that.

#161 Brazil ex-pat on 07.09.16 at 2:41 pm

I believe the US Job numbers like I believe the buyers of Moldcouver real estate are all locals.

#162 BS on 07.09.16 at 4:03 pm

A Vancouver lender calls it like it is. A bubble that will burst.

Vancouver-based CCEC Credit Union’s CEO Ross Gentleman says the market is in a bubble. It is not ‘if’ it’s ‘when’ the bubble bursts.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-its-not-if-its-when-vancouvers-housing-bubble-bursts/article30262112/

#163 SickofBC on 07.09.16 at 4:19 pm

Take a look at this article on BC political donations

“The B.C. Liberals have in recent years received hundreds of thousands of dollars from offshore real estate developers, mining companies, railways and others. At least indirectly, the B.C. Liberals have even received donations from foreign governments, specifically China.

The B.C. Liberals allow this practice even though the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development this year declared that foreign donations to political parties threaten sovereignty”

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-b-c-politicians-almost-alone-in-seeking-foreign-donations?google_editors_picks=true

#164 ROTFL on 07.09.16 at 4:28 pm

“Garth, you’re kind of being drawn into an argument that is beneath you. I agree, the urge to speak out about xenophobia and racism when confronted with it is strong (as it should be).”

I don’t know what your understanding of “drawn into an argument” is, but Garth sets the subject here every day. Every few weeks, he talks about West Coast housing prices, immigration/foreign money, and his opinions thereon. Predictable stuff ensues, and it has for years. And then he complains about opinions. That’s not being “drawn into” anything, it’s classic passive-aggressive BS. Read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Games_People_Play_(book) for a fuller explanation.

“But these losers have made up their minds.”

Garth’s survey has indicated that people here, on average, aren’t losers.

#165 Lucy on 07.09.16 at 4:37 pm

Smoky,

So sorry for you and your Dad. You said he was a man of faith – so pray for him.

Father’s day, 13 years ago I was sitting with my Dad (cancer) dawned on me what day it was and that I didn’t even have a card/gift for him……only gift I could give him was to pray for him to be pain free. He died twenty minutes later.

#166 Nemesis on 07.09.16 at 5:05 pm

#HatTipToSickOfBC… #OutOfControl?,Or… #TheBuckStartsHere… #FromTheVerySamePeopleWhoToldYou… #Foreigners?WhatForeigners?…

[VanSun] – Douglas Todd: B.C. politicians almost alone in seeking foreign donations

…”As for foreign political donations, it is not only Canada’s federal government that forbids them. So do most of the provinces.

Dermod Travis, executive director of Integrity B.C., says Quebec, Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia ban foreign donations. Ontario will soon join them. These governments also forbid contributions from people outside the province…

…In contrast, the B.C. Liberals, according to the non-partisan watchdog, have accepted hundreds of thousands from offshore companies, particularly those in real estate.

Onni Contracting, whose parent company is based in Arizona, has donated more than $460,000 to the B.C. Liberals, Travis says. This at a time when the influence of foreign money on Metro Vancouver real estate prices is a burning issue.

The Holborn Group and related companies, owned by one of Malaysia’s wealthiest families, has also have given $226,000 to the B.C. Liberals. Speaking of the likely Republican nominee, The Holborn Group is building Vancouver’s Trump Tower.

The B.C. Liberals have hauled in money from scores more foreign-based companies., including the linked companies associated with: Burlington Northern Santa Fe railway (based in the U.S.); Petronas Energy (based in Malaysia); Kinder Morgan International (based in the U.S.); the Bank of China (China), NBC Universal Media (U.S.); Republic Services waste management (U.S.); Posco Construction (Korea); Thompson Creek Metals (U.S.); Woodfibre LNG (Singapore) and HD Mining (China).”…

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-b-c-politicians-almost-alone-in-seeking-foreign-donations

#167 understood by few on 07.09.16 at 5:06 pm

#152 Adam Smith on 07.09.16 at 1:26 pm

Is Victoria going to face a major correction as well or will it be pretty minor here? If it does, what kind of properties and price-ranges should get knocked down the hardest?
————–

Well if you believe VREU, we’re in for a “DEEP CORRECTION”. Of course VREU doesn’t even comprehend how high prices has gone because (s)he refuses to look at actual numbers (so has no clue between ask and actual sale price) and only looks at Teranet (which includes all dwelling types and Sooke in addition to all of the western communities).

You’ll get a better answer if you assk it over at http://househuntvictoria.ca/

My opinion (which may stink as much as any other):
In reality, it’s impossible to say how deep a correction will be. There won’t be one until the the sales/listing ratio becomes more favourable for buyers ( Sales to list ratio for single family houses is 91%.. which is insane). So either we need less buyers or more sellers.

Lot’s of factors in what ones stands to lose but generally the hardest hit are condos and townhouses. SFH in the western communities tend to get hit harders and before more desirable areas and it’s a double whammy if you buy a condo or townhouse out there. New homes on micro lots are really similar to new condos (i.e. expect them to depreciate if the market is flat since there is usually plenty of inventory).

Generally I’d say the popular areas are pretty safe (pretty much all of Saanich east and Oak bay). In my experience the pricing was pretty flat after 2010 (whereas other areas dropped pretty heavily). With how expensive some areas have become so quickly (e.g. Gordon Head), I’d expect them to correct pretty harshly too, but it’s anyone’s guess.

If we did ever get a “deep correction” (like VREU is so desperately hoping for), I’d buy a second place. I suspect people will start buying up houses before we get to that level though. It’s amazing how far people are willing to stretch themselves to buy some dirt these days.

#168 Smoking Man on 07.09.16 at 5:09 pm

Thanks for the kind words dogs. Holly smokes feel better knowing I’m not the only one.

The show must go on….. Taken a break, Senica bound to hang with the Hollywood Vampires. They killed it in Orillia last night.

Trust me…. Going full on loser drunk tonight.

#169 Big Dipper on 07.09.16 at 6:10 pm

#154 Ole Doberman on 07.09.16 at 1:42 pm

“Pain and suffering in old age is a form of penance – like a pay back before you move to the after life.

Those who believe they are doing someone a favor by ending it rob that individual of paying for their sins in this life time – which is way better than paying in the next life.

My grandpa broke his leg and spent the last 3 months of his life suffering in a bed at the mercy of his wife’s nursing. He was a Nazi.

I think he made it to purgatory, which is a place of final cleansing before the pearly gates (to put this in layman’s terms), which of course is way better than the firey place below where your thirst never quenches – couldn’t even imagine the horror.”
————————————————-
Wow.

Another sad example of the horrors inflicted by religion to humanity. At least this gives me more insight in vicious objections by Catholic clergy against dying with dignity.

Fortunately for me, my family does not share any of this superstitious nonsense and I have a documented final medical directive that makes that very clear.

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.09.16 at 6:24 pm

@#161 Brazilian Hot Wax
“I believe the US Job numbers like I believe the buyers of Moldcouver real estate are all locals….”
********************************************

Yet you believe the Brazilian Olympics are fab, The Brazilian Govt less corrupt than Canada’s govt, The Brazilian Economy is A-OK, the Zika virus is propaganda and we’re all greater fools…..

Pray tell, could I have the same medical prescription as you?

#171 WUL on 07.09.16 at 6:33 pm

Garth:

I was going to submit a comment on my having thoroughly enjoyed an afternoon watching an exhibition of skill and daring in Calgary this afternoon.

But I refrained after thinking about the tough couple of days you have been through moderating the comment section here.

I decided that the last thing you need now is a crowd of animal rights activists from Kits and Kerrisdale showing up here.

Oops, now what have I done!

Sorry.

#172 Tony on 07.09.16 at 7:33 pm

Re: #151 Dook on 07.09.16 at 1:15 pm

The old adage “the average person dies broke” will likely be true indefinitely. The masses always do the wrong thing. As seen today the masses are too stupid or daft to see a peak in housing and none of them list. Sad but true they’ll be the last ones to know. Every variable except falling interest rates is a negative for housing. As we’ve seen with Germany and Japan housing can and will fall sharply with falling interest rates or negative interest rates.

#173 Lilly Hong on 07.09.16 at 7:34 pm

The current bond markets in Canada, U.S. are in a down trend feeding frenzy.

This will go on for months and maybe a year but watch out when the trend turns the other way.

It will make 1994 bond market crash look like a picnic. It will be at least 4 or 5 times worse than that.

It is all about percentages and with these artificially, ultra low and lower bond yields and interest rates, a 25, 50, 100 basis points rise from current or lower levels will mean big time losses in tens of trillions of dollars.

#174 maxx on 07.09.16 at 7:39 pm

#17 Good Grief.. on 07.08.16 at 6:12 pm

” “…Including Canada – where (ironically) we have created what’s possibly the planet’s greatest debt-fueled speculative real estate bubble…”

Umm no. CMHC is still below the $600 billion limit we were so close to breaching 2 years ago. This is not debt fuelled. *Source: CMHC outstanding mortgages”

Umm…..and whose ar$e was that magical, meaningful figure pulled out of. Umm……………………

No debt fueled problem here……….umm…………

With the 90% of houses in Van listed for more than $1 million there is no CHMC involved. — Garth

#175 Smoking Man on 07.09.16 at 7:53 pm

Artists, poets, and my dad are the only people worthy of immortality.

Every one else including me should rot in hell.

#176 maxx on 07.09.16 at 8:01 pm

#96 Lee bow on 07.08.16 at 10:21 pm

“And, isn’t there any anthropological value in what’s going on?”

Only if you’re congenitally innumerate.

#177 Nancy Raganathan on 07.09.16 at 8:18 pm

Wasn’t Warren Buffet that said long bonds were the most dangerous investment.

He will be right as he rarely makes a mistake.

#178 The Dude on 07.09.16 at 8:35 pm

Garth, keep us posted on the selling price.

#179 Winston Smith on 07.09.16 at 9:20 pm

We certainly do have our backs against the wall. Central Bankers have sold us the sticky tape with cheap credit and will have us paying the interest charges long after the baby comes crashing down on the floor. Watching TV is only a temporary distraction–it won’t protect us from reality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLQsT9BPHpg

#180 WUL on 07.09.16 at 9:25 pm

I have been thinking about something for a while (Uh oh!)

Assume for a moment that in fact there is a brain drain from Vancouver occurring as bright young things cannot afford to live near their workplace at Burrard and Georgia and are forced out to Abbotsford to face a nine hour commute. Then employers complain that they cannot get high quality hires.

Shouldn’t the employers ask themselves “Why are we located in downtown Vancouver”?

Does staff have to walk to meet clients? Is their business reliant upon bicycle couriers?

We live in a wired world. Could a high tech company in Vancouver gain a competitive advantage with an office in Kamloops where people could actually afford to live?

My sister was doing website design and content work for one of the world’s highest end Swiss watch companies in the world from S.W. Calgary. Yes, she had to fly to Geneva and back once in a while but it worked.

Imperial Oil is moving out of downtown Calgary to Quarry Park.

While it was only a move to the Ogden Yards from 8th Ave in Cowtown, a honcho with CP Rail said:

“We’re a railroad. What were we doing downtown hanging out with the oil barons? Our place is to be in a rail yard,” said Brehl…,”

#181 Smoking Man on 07.09.16 at 9:46 pm

Alice cooper my dead drunk freinds with Johny deep

I’m still Alive. Ass holes..

#182 Lee on 07.09.16 at 9:56 pm

How am I going to send out my wedding invitations if Canada Post strikes Monday?

#183 46 and 2 on 07.09.16 at 10:13 pm

With the 90% of houses in Van listed for more than $1 million there is no CHMC involved. — Garth

What are you talking about…what do you have to back this up?

You are saying that these are cash deals?

If so, where is the cash coming from?

There is no CMHC insurance available on properties selling for a million and above. — Garth

#184 Smoking Man on 07.09.16 at 10:20 pm

God concert. Johnny deep fans huge in numbers.

Let’s face it Johnny loved Hunter.
I’m better than Hunter.. So I have been told.

Idiots.

Where will the future ass kissers kiss.

Won’t be my ass. I’m just a drink who likes to thumb.

#185 acdel on 07.09.16 at 10:22 pm

#180 WUL

Absolute good observation; many believe that Alberta is just about oil and gas; meanwhile we in this Province have the youngest most educated bright minds in the country, and many well seasoned business’s that have gone through hell and back and survived. The nay Sayers will always bash us but the reality is that AB and Sask and our friends on the East Coast are moving forward besides the hardships; most do not get it; we are stereotyped to all being Harperites’or Wild Rose fanatics, little do most people know; bring it on!

What I am saying that all people in Canada that realize how important that we are a resource country slowly moving towards a newer economy realizes that it takes time and billions if not trillions of dollars to get us to that point. We are getting there but it will not happen over night; all you disillusioned enviro nazi wacko’s that enjoy the privilege of your comforts life to all the people who work there butts off to give you that, make a difference and start your own companies; employ many, this is how the shift will progress.. If not, then shut your trap hypocrites.

By the way, forests are expanding and Canada absorbs more carbon then it produces; look it up. Good-night all.

#186 46 and 2 on 07.09.16 at 11:23 pm

There is no CMHC insurance available on properties selling for a million and above. — Garth

Correct, so where is the cash to close coming from on $1mm and up?

Same as everyone else. Down payment + mortgage. — Garth

#187 fishman on 07.10.16 at 1:04 am

Maybe right now Canada absorbs more carbon than it produces, but not for long. The softwood treaty is kaput. The mills are gearing up. Notices going out to the union to rejig their contracts getting the men to work more overtime regular schedule. there will be more lumber produced in the next year than we’ve ever seen because no rules. Oil workers coming back to the mill towns will take up the hiring slack. In a year if there’s no agreement big shutdowns. If you play the big B.C. Lumber Co’s, pick out those with mills in the states.

#188 TRT on 07.10.16 at 1:30 am

Disclaimer: I do not profit in any way from the views discussed below.

The probability that the USA will head into Recession in the next 12 months has risen to the highest level since 2008. Yield curve has flattened, Deutsche Bank says 60% chance.

Result: No rate hikes for a very long time. Canada will cut when the USA recession hits.

Housing in YVR will continue to go up due to escaping Chinese money that need to parked somewhere.

#189 Brazil ex-pat on 07.10.16 at 2:21 am

#170 crowdedspaceinmybrainasitsfullofrocks on 07.09.16 at 6:24 pm
@#161 Brazilian Hot Wax
“I believe the US Job numbers like I believe the buyers of Moldcouver real estate are all locals….”
********************************************

Yet you believe the Brazilian Olympics are fab, The Brazilian Govt less corrupt than Canada’s govt, The Brazilian Economy is A-OK, the Zika virus is propaganda and we’re all greater fools…..

Pray tell, could I have the same medical prescription as you?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

i have said many times I could care less about the Olympics.

#190 Big Gray Rotney on 07.10.16 at 3:30 am

Victoria Realestate at it again quoting numbers instead of knowing what’s actually really going on in Victoria. New sub divisions being built all over Langford and Colwood. Houses going for well over asking but somehow we are going down. Quote all you want, I’ve been trying to get a house for my parents and can’t even get in an offer before it’s gone. Oh and if you like quoting numbers how about the one about there’s 1% inflation right now?

#191 NoName on 07.10.16 at 8:38 am

#185 acdel on 07.09.16 at 10:22 pm

“Absolute good observation; many believe that Alberta is just about oil and gas;”

——–

it is a little bit older list (2013), but this is a only list that i have seen so far, what am I missing.

http://albertaventure.com/largest-alberta-employers/?myyear=2012&sort=description

———-

“Province have the youngest most educated bright minds in the country”

Funny that you think that, you guys are no diferent than onratio. That is probably explains why you guys elected Notely for premier.

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/provincial/education.aspx

#192 Renter's Revenge! on 07.10.16 at 10:50 am

#182 Lee on 07.09.16 at 9:56 pm
How am I going to send out my wedding invitations if Canada Post strikes Monday?

You could use the internet… to order 100 USB memory sticks from Ali Express. Load the wedding invitations on to the USB sticks along a set of instructions on how to print the invitation out. Then use a courier such as Purolator to deliver a stick, a piece of wedding invitation card paper and a cheque to cover the cost of replying to each invitee.

See? With modern technology we don’t need Canada Post anymore!

P.S. If that was a serious question, then I apologize for my sarcasm. In that case, I don’t know how to help you.

#193 Aggregator on 07.10.16 at 11:00 am

There is no CMHC insurance available on properties selling for a million and above. — Garth

No, but there is CMHC MBS guarantees and Genworth Canada insurance (90% taxpayer backed) for +$1 mllion propertries. Both can be used for bulk mortgage pooling.

Protection of Residential Mortgage or Hypothecary Insurance Act

Protected Loan Limit

27 – The aggregate outstanding principal amount of the following loans must not at any time exceed $300,000,000,000 or any other amount that is authorized for the purposes of this section under an appropriation Act:

(a) all mortgage or hypothecary loans that are insured by corporations that are or were approved mortgage insurers; and

Prohibition

(2) An approved mortgage insurer to whom an amount is allocated must not insure any new mortgage or hypothecary loans if doing so would cause the outstanding principal amount of all mortgage or hypothecary loans that are insured by it to exceed that allocated amount.

Somebody tell Ottawa that Genworth Canada has just shot passed the $300 billion limit and now heading for $450 billion dollars.

#194 kelsey on 07.10.16 at 11:06 am

The BC govt’s foreign purchasing data is horribly flawed – using an arbitrary choice of 19 days in June 2016, and the data focuses on the results from a self-reported form which may or may not be correct. It completely ignores homes bought using money from abroad by “smurf” buyers in Vancouver, numbered companies owned by offshore owners and folks who have made their way over via the Foreign and Quebec Immigrant Investor Programmes (FIIP/QIIP).

More revealing data would be to map income tax filings against property titles. The govt has this data but chooses not to do this.

#195 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.10.16 at 11:18 am

@#189 Brazilian SexWax
“i have said many times I could care less about the Olympics.”
*******************************************

Hell Hath Frozen.

We agree on something.

But your crippled economy gets to pay for the Olympics…..unlike the rest of the world.
Whats the security bill up to? 1 Billion? 2?
Just what the Brazilian economy needs right now. More exorbitant bills for “games”
The entire world seeing 2 weeks worth of half empty stadiums that cost your economy billions isnt a message of “hope” and “success” that the Brazilian govt wants to project…
Perhaps free tickets handed out in the favelas to fill stadium seats will allow the “mob” to enjoy the “circus”…..That is if the transit system is finished by then……. :)
Oh well. They can always carjack a bus to get to an event. Not like THAT hasnt happened before.

I guess the rest of my comments about govt corruption, the economy, etc. had a ring of truth since you’re not discussing it.

#196 Arfmooocat on 07.10.16 at 11:31 am

The frightening force driving the economy

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/grant-williams-crazy-presentation-debt-000000190.html

Grant Williams, the author of the widely-read financial publication “Things That Make You Go Hmmm” and co-founder of Real Vision Television, says we’re experiencing something “truly historic” in the global economy.

In a new 40-minute video presentation called “Crazy,” Williams highlights the extraordinary levels of global debt and unprecedented monetary policy we’ve seen since the 2008 financial crisis.

“The investment landscape today is unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetime,” he says.

There’s simply too much debt, he argues. He illustrated this in the chart above, which shows the growth of credit instrument eclipsing the much more modest climb in US GDP.

Following the 2008 financial crisis, central bankers unleashed ultra easy monetary policy. One of the efforts involved the Fed making large-scale purchases of bonds, aka quantitative easing.

Williams points out that since the crisis there’s been 650 interest rate cuts by central banks around the world — or about one rate cut every three trading days. And in the eight years since the crisis, interest rates remain at or near zero, and in some parts of the world they’re negative.

“If you woke someone up this morning and explained what’s going on with negative rates and central bank balance sheets… it’s a snapshot of how far we have gone into crazy town. It happened incrementally … It happened slowly,” Williams tells Yahoo Finance.

In the presentation, Williams points to a “fabled wealth effect.” The Fed’s policies were meant to encourage the consumer to spend and thus stimulate the economy. The unintended consequence is that the American consumer suddenly decided enough was enough and that it was time to start saving.

“That’s a big problem,” Williams says.

Basically, people are frightened so they’re saving their money, but they’re not getting any return on it.

All of this matters with the recent Brexit decision and the upcoming election in the US with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump being the presumptive nominees from their parties.

“People are unhappy. It’s more expensive to live. They sense all this stuff,” he tells Yahoo Finance, adding, “It’s never the question you ask that gets answered…”

According to Williams, the only way out is to raise rates. And at this point, neither the domestic or global economy is strong enough for a rate increase, he says.

“Once you’ve gone down this road, it’s very hard to go back without an extreme event that forces you to go back… No matter what the Fed says about the unwind, they can’t do it. More extreme actions are needed on their part or an extreme event exogenous to central banks like a market crash or a loss of confidence.”

For now, while the “central bankers rule the world,” Williams recommends gold as an investment.

“The end game will likely be the dollar and gold both rising along with the US treasuries. It’s time to play defense. Most importantly, it’s vital to preserve your capital. Right now, I believe this isn’t a time to be fully vested in equities— not while central bankers rule the world.”

#197 Ole Doberman on 07.10.16 at 11:35 am

Smokeyman, here’s a good read on redemptive suffering, I think we’ll all cross paths with it at some point near our death:

http://www.traditionalcatholicpriest.com/2016/07/08/memoriam-fr-peter-carota/

….something you can teach in herdanomics.

#198 Ronaldo on 07.10.16 at 11:46 am

Out of control is right. Here is one 945 s.f. that sold for $112,000 over asking price of $838,000 for $950,000 or $1005 per s.f.

http://vancouverjustlisted.ca/mylistings.html/details-54440703#viewtop

#199 NoName on 07.10.16 at 11:49 am

interesting read about olimpics, Brazil and Greece.

http://www.politico.eu/article/how-the-olympics-rotted-greece/

#200 Ole Doberman on 07.10.16 at 11:54 am

#169 Big Dipper

Wow.

Another sad example of the horrors inflicted by religion to humanity. At least this gives me more insight in vicious objections by Catholic clergy against dying with dignity.

Fortunately for me, my family does not share any of this superstitious nonsense and I have a documented final medical directive that makes that very clear.
——————————————————–
Right cause you know it all.

Sorry faith is a requirement – our feeble minded sense are so limited.

#201 rainclouds on 07.10.16 at 1:29 pm

#198 Ronaldo,”Out of control is right. Here is one 945 s.f. that sold for $112,000 over asking price of $838,000 for $950,000 or $1005 per s.f.”

Rent in a similar sized Suite around the corner on Cambie. Hard to see this being a stellar purchase.

Based my rent the ratio is 35
Based on 3k(high) per mo rent ratio is 26.5

#202 acdel on 07.10.16 at 7:41 pm

#191 NoName

Touche, it is not about Alberta verses Ontario although I am worried about your Provinces debt; can they keep the bright minds in that Province??

My message is very simple to all that do not seem to get it. We have one of the greatest quality of living in all the world; it will take time to transfer into a new way of life; it is going to take an enormous amount of cash to do so. I will never understand as to why Canadian’s fight amongst one another; we are the one’s paying the taxes to sustain our way of life. Unfortunately that is being taking away from us by eco nazi’s that do not get it; we are doing a good job in this country, go ahead, fall into there trap and Canada is doomed; it takes time……

I advise all the young to save as much as you can and retire in a different country; why, because of all that do not get it and live in la,la, land..

#203 Bob on 07.11.16 at 11:51 am

And so the wheel keeps on turning Garth…

I predict that it won’t be long before you start telling everyone that the US is facing a housing bubble once again.

Some time after that you will be saying there will be another Canadian housing bubble.

Continue this on ad infinitum……..

One thing is for absolutely sure the price of housing, like the stock market, in 25-30 years will be higher than it is today.

Unfortunately this is the new normal now. I suppose we should all get used to it.

#204 Michelle on 07.11.16 at 1:22 pm

House prices in Seattle may not be as crazy yet as Vancouver, but they are dealing with their own version of insanity. Prices up more than 15% in a year due to tech money moving up from San Francisco:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-08/seattle-as-next-silicon-valley-sparks-home-sales-frenzy

http://seattle.curbed.com/seattle-home-prices

#205 DisgustMadeMePost on 07.11.16 at 1:49 pm

Not sure where the truth lies.

I recently had a conversation with an employee of one of the big banks. He deals with mortgages at a vancouver west branch. His comment was that 90% of mortgages they were doing were to foreign buyers. 35% down and absolutely no need to prove income. He also commented that real estate agents are blamed but in truth, it’s the regulations at fault. Of course, regulations aren’t going to change if the current governing party stays in power.

He felt that the ‘pipeline’ of money, as he called it, may slow in the next year or two as the Chinese authorities clamp down on those trying to get their money out of the country and the businesses that facilitate the process.

The guy was stressed. We also talked about buying a place in vancouver… And he could not.

Please don’t tell me I’m crazy, or making this up… I’m just relaying our conversation.

How is his experience so different from the ‘data’?