Surprise!

FUNNY DOG modified

Regular readers, who have no life and come here out of pathetic addiction, will know I am under siege. Daily. My argument is that Canadians have kneecapped themselves by over-reaching for home ownership and in the process become sautéed in debt, Hoovered their financial assets and now are at fat risk because they’ve put all their net worth on one toss of the dice. A single-asset strategy, I keep saying, is extreme. And nobody made you do it.

The critics and house-humpers say phooey, claiming none of this is the fault of honest middle-class people. Instead, blame government and, especially, Chinese dudes. Government, in the infamous words of one dumbass poster here, is “giving out Canadian citizenship in vending machines in China.” And all the Asian investors here are money-launderers and corrupt officials, solely responsible for property prices no honest locals can afford.

Well, not so. This blog has already coughed up all the available data – surveys of Vancouver realtors, estimates from the BC government plus the provincial real estate association, along with actual market data on deals on the Island. Every one came to the same conclusion: offshore buyers account for about 5% of trades. Locals are responsible for 95%.

Under political pressure from this urban myth of bad-Chinese, the BC government got serious about data collection and on Thursday unloaded the first barrage of stats. Guess what? I was wrong. The Chinese dudes (and other foreigners) account for only 3.3% of deals. But I was still right – this amounts to 5.1% of transactions.

Here are the key points, as reported by the breathless (but disappointed) Van MSM:

Main findings include, between June 10 and June 29, 2016:
*  10,148 residential real estate transactions in B.C., totalling more than $7.6 billion.
*  337 transactions (3.3%) involved foreign nationals, worth $390 million (5.1%).
*  In Metro Vancouver, there were 5,118 transactions worth nearly $5.4 billion, of which260 involved foreign nationals (5.1%), worth $351 million (6.5%)
*  In the City of Vancouver, there were 1,139 transactions, totalling more than $1.6 billion. 47 of these involved foreign nationals (4.1%), worth $64 million (3.9%).
De Jong (the finance minister) broke down the numbers in four communities:
* In Metro Vancouver, foreign nationals accounted for five per cent of transactions…of which 234 transactions were by mainland Chinese buyers, followed by five by Korean, five by Taiwanese
* City of Vancouver, foreign nationals accounted for four per cent
* Richmond, foreign nationals accounted for 14 per cent
* Surrey, three per cent
* Burnaby, 11 per cent

Well, there ya go. It’s official. You’ve nobody to blame but your own dumb self for jumping into the middle of the biggest asset bubble in national history – one which has a zero chance of survival. The Chinese dudes did not make you do it. Their market influence has been too minor to push overall prices higher. They are not responsible for an epidemic of flipping and speculation now gripping the market. And the fact prices have spiked while sales volumes have declined should – along with this report – scare the poop out of anyone who recently borrowed big to “buy now or buy never.”

Of course, the regulators know this. The real culprits of this piece, feeding a bubble of immense proportions, have been central bankers depressing market interest rates, CMHC with its reckless mortgage insurance program and the bankers who are over-lending and under-scrutinizing.

So now wonder this week we’ve seen a threesome of events: (a) realtors in Van and the GTA reporting average insane price increases of 30% and 17% respectively, (b) evidence this isn’t the result of offshore money and (c) a withering directive from the country’s bank cop, telling lenders they’re courting disaster.

The regulator is OFSI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions). The warning contained in its rare, open letter is blunt.

“The current macroeconomic environment in Canada is characterized by elevated financial risks and associated vulnerabilities for Canadian financial institutions. Persistently low interest rates, record levels of household indebtedness, and rapid increases in house prices in certain areas of Canada (such as Greater Vancouver and Toronto), could generate significant loan losses if economic conditions deteriorate. Financial institutions can sustain losses both through the potential inability of borrowers to meet their debt obligations, as well as through declining values of the real estate properties pledged as collateral in mortgage loans.”

What’s the regulator grousing about? In a word, greed. Lenders have been shorting the rules for ages, lending vast amounts of money to house-horny souls who clearly constitute elevated risk. The bankers have not been careful enough about verifying incomes or enforcing debt-service ratio guidelines. They’ve been sloppy about appraisals, too heavily influenced by rising valuations, too generous with loan-to-value calculations and generally accepting too much risk in their overall mortgage portfolios.

“Given the current economic environment in Canada, with record levels of household indebtedness and growing risks and vulnerabilities in some housing markets, OSFI’s supervisory scrutiny in the area of mortgage underwriting will continue. Moving forward, OSFI will place an even greater emphasis on confirming that financial institutions conduct prudent mortgage underwriting, and that their internal controls and risk management practices are sound and take into account market developments.”

Too many people have borrowed too much, using it to overpay for assets which are inflated in value at a time when interest rates are at historic lows. They continue, based on greed (speculation and profit) plus fear (of being priced out). As volumes thin and prices wobble higher – with foreigners off the table – the true nature of this risk emerges.

Get out.

BUBBLE

Seems Google searches for ‘housing bubble’ have just started to spike in BC. Hey, who’s worried…?

254 comments ↓

#1 not so fast on 07.07.16 at 4:59 pm

You say that there is no “offshore money”… but beware.
There is evidence that one spouse (usually the man) works overseas (i.e. China) while funding wife and kids to live the Canadian lifestyle and go to school here. They pay virtually no Canadian income tax.

I don’t have statistics on this, and it could even be a red-herring as wife and kids are Canadian citizens/residents. A Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian, but to claim there is no off shore money is not accurate.

#2 DeutscheBankWillFailSoon on 07.07.16 at 5:02 pm

Who will be blamed for creating this bubble after it collapses:
a) The Government
b) The Banks
c) Real Estate Brokers
d) Shadow Lending
e) The Horny House Buyer
f) No one could have known

#3 Gaga on 07.07.16 at 5:04 pm

People are nuts
Thanks,Garth

#4 George on 07.07.16 at 5:07 pm

You are assuming the data is correct. Does it include numbered companies, shell companies, nominees and relatives, lawyer offices, and realtors offices used to facilitate the transactions?

Figures don’t lie – but liars do figure – or omit.

#5 Frank on 07.07.16 at 5:11 pm

I don’t think this is a surprise.

No one should blame foreign people. The question is foreign money. If an immigrant family member or 3rd party buys a house for some one with foreign income that’s the real scale tipper.

Much harder to track but the only number of value.

#6 mouldy in YVR on 07.07.16 at 5:11 pm

No kidding…….

#7 Mitch on 07.07.16 at 5:11 pm

I hope the people at the OSFI have trouble sleeping at night.

#8 BeSmartRich on 07.07.16 at 5:13 pm

I am very glad that the stats are out and you were very right. Only less than 5% of the transactions are done by foreigners. Yay!

The housing prices are extremely inflated here in Toronto and Vancouver and I am hoping the corrections come soon as I am still renting and have been saving and investing to amass $200K now.

It seems that the correction (or should I say crash) will be spectacular considering the recent extreme and unreasonable growth of the prices. I will, of course, get in when there is blood on the street.

If you own real estates in Toronto and Vancouver that have been up 50%-300% up then it really is your last chance to get out before storm hits.

#9 conan on 07.07.16 at 5:15 pm

These studies and stats are nice and everything, but the fact remains that money launderers and nefarious organised elements are not going to show up on any of these cursory investigations.

Heck if I was a bad dude trying to get billions of illegal dollars out of China, I would be smuggling it out in cash.

Once in Vancouver I would seek out landed immigrants and Canadian citizens who want to take my suit cases of cash and buy property with it. I cut them in with a nice cash payment. Don’t mess with me though. I have a triad of ways to elicit pay back.

#10 Cottingham a bargain on 07.07.16 at 5:15 pm

Long way up for prices in near 905 , where you can still buy a real house on a real lot and where Asians are buying in droves( Canadians of Asian descent ).

Get in while you still can.

Bigot. — Garth

#11 Gino Dileonardo on 07.07.16 at 5:15 pm

if 70% of all canadians own real estate, and there are new home construction in many many cities around southern ontario and vancouver and burbs. You can probably make an assumption that foreigners coming in and buying properties is the basis for the real estate market advance.
canadians are not nearly as mobile as our american counterparts, so this whole trade up model is not as convincing here.
so with cmhc, low interest rates, and most importantly lack of alternative investment opportunities you end up in drywall investments. thats it. no one is setting up a drycleaner, a restaurant etc, its all in real estate, so i agree garth, lack of diversification.
The amount of equity being built up in Canada is very strong, many people are now paper milionaires. great, retire to the south and give the keys to some other sucker who will work his whole life to have the privilidge of living in your home. you dont need it anyway, kids moved out and your downsized.
so dont get sentimental about the home, fly away to the sun, have a drink and say, hey some poor sap is working hard to have the same life i had, that i didnt work nearly as hard as you.
the amount of cummulative wealth in real estate for all of us, has been the saving grace for many business. sure the kids will suffer, but who cares for them, generals get kids to go fight their battles in war, what are you stupid, only the young and stupid have kids and get in over their heads.

#12 Confusing blog post on 07.07.16 at 5:15 pm

The 300k annual immigrants, many of whom come to vancouver, are driving up prices leveraging foreign assets. China and its asset bubble is the epicentre.

Its happening. Full stop.

Im shocked a full 5% of transactions are buyers who dont even live here.

So no, its not millenials.

Immigrants are called ‘Canadians’. This blog is making me sad. — Garth

#13 Victor Y. on 07.07.16 at 5:19 pm

why my close friends in RE business keep telling us there are mainland chinese buying all the time whether it is up or down then? I think they must find a way to evade as domestic immigrant. That is the problem.

#14 TurnerNation on 07.07.16 at 5:21 pm

What that the guy in blue shirt is holding.
Trump’s hairpiece?

#15 Freeman on 07.07.16 at 5:23 pm

Yeah, Garth is correct.

#16 Deep Listing on 07.07.16 at 5:23 pm

I’m coming out of hiding from providing info from a couple of days ago.

I wanted to point out that looking at the % of transactions made to foreigners is not really relevant. The fact that it is a low % shows that the majority of market participants are not foreigners. However, focusing on the % is not the correct way to show how this influences pricing.

A couple of things happen when a foreigner buys.
1.) It acts like an export of real estate, removing it from the local housing stock (except when it is rented out – which is not happening so frequently now – especially in larger houses).
2.) It brings the market price up because the foreign buyer is less elastic on price and this means they are less sensitive to price increases. Locals have to match this. Many of the remaining 95% of the sales are actually follow-on sales that occur because of a foreign purchase from a local buyer (who then goes out with a bucket of money – and spends it again).

The key numbers people should look at are the macro-economic numbers.

– ~$6 billion in real estate will be sold to foreigners. Much of this acts like an export of housing stock. It also adds capital to the market – competing – or being added to – the additional local capital coming from salaries/savings plus additional mortgages.
– The amount of property being sold is like a new 25-story condo tower every week. This is a large amount.

Ultimately – the best statistic – would be – what is the total foreign purchases compared to additional local capital. All of the foreign purchases are basically new capital while the local transactions don’t represent new capital – and thus – the foreign purchases disproportionately affect pricing compared to the locals.

I would expect you would see that around 30-50% of the capital is actually coming from foreign – solely from these 5% of the transactions.

#17 eaglebay on 07.07.16 at 5:26 pm

George on 07.07.16 at 5:07 pm
“You are assuming the data is correct. Does it include numbered companies, shell companies, nominees and relatives, lawyer offices, and realtors offices used to facilitate the transactions?”

Oh George, a bit plugged up? Doomers don’t understand ‘citizenship’. Are you caught up in a huuuge mortgage?

#18 Conundrum on 07.07.16 at 5:26 pm

Faithful reader for 5+ years. I rely on you for regularly for reality checks. Have rented for over 10 years, largely due to a few moves across western Canada. Now reluctantly considering move from Yvr to yqr where I can easily afford a brand new bungalow for under $500k. Also within your rule of 90. It’s tempting relative to yqr prices however i just can’t see it holding value so I won’t buy yet. Interesting to note demographics in newer parts of Regina where average household income is considerably higher than most any part of metro Vancouver.

#19 Confusing blog post on 07.07.16 at 5:26 pm

@9 conan

You arent seeing the full picture.

My friend, a chinese girl, canadian citizen of two years, just sold one of her condos in xian, and is using that as a 20% dp on a house in coquitlam.

Its legal and fine, and it happens to be the common force that is pushing prices up in vancouver richmond burnaby and coquitlam.

Plan accordingly

#20 Ed on 07.07.16 at 5:28 pm

George, Conan: Go back on your meds–then the conspiracy theorizing will fade.

#21 Cottingham a bargain on 07.07.16 at 5:34 pm

Garths response to me at#10.

I actually looked up the definition of ” droves” in websters to see why you would reply as you did.

Quite a stretch even for you Garth to make such an accusation.

Oh well , your blog. I can live with it

#22 ADC on 07.07.16 at 5:35 pm

Some prefer to read the entertainment section, but I think the financial world is plenty entertaining enough. I mean, the housing market is like reading the funny pages and it leaves one wondering when people will see the pink elephant in the room.
Garth, fantastic blog about keeping one’s head about them when all the house-horny people keep trying to get you to join the cult.
I mean, isn’t it a cult when the idea they’re espousing is crazy?

#23 Dracula on 07.07.16 at 5:36 pm

https://www.zolo.ca/port-coquitlam-real-estate/2673-klassen-court
70k reduced, 40 days on market?

https://www.zolo.ca/port-coquitlam-real-estate/1668-knappen-street
51k reduced, 45 days on market?

https://www.zolo.ca/port-coquitlam-real-estate/2112-mary-hill-road
30k reduced, 79 days on market?

https://www.zolo.ca/port-coquitlam-real-estate/1226-gateway-place
140k reduced, 86 days on market?

How is this possible? price reducing? So many days on the market? Where are the bidding wars?
Garth said the bubble pops with expensive properties first, “smart money” exit the market, cashing in….

#24 BOOM! on 07.07.16 at 5:36 pm

The REAL issues is not that you are under siege, that can be instantly cured.

The REAL issues are when the Boomer onslaught of retirees keep growing for the next decade, and beyond.

Both the US as well as Canada find both their governments, as well as a majority of citizens woefully unprepared for the expenses -and- length of retirement.

What would be the impacts of looking at a Federal budget using historical percentages of say, medicare, or social security (OAS) and reducing next years checks by the ‘shortfall’ in next years ‘growth’ of demand?

In other words, the slice of the budget remains constant say at 18%… while the individual checks shrink by the increasing demand.

When budget ‘surpluses appear’ the checks could then normalize…

Doing this for a few years just might get the attention of the 55 year olds today.

Yeah, I realize it is dreamer thinking, but maybe something millennialls should consider in retaining any form of their fiscal lives.

Just thinking…

#25 Brazil ex-pat on 07.07.16 at 5:42 pm

The numbers may be official. But what does official mean today when it comes to lying, sneaky, info retarding Govt?

No one believes the numbers all day on the news.

#26 RayofLight on 07.07.16 at 5:42 pm

The economic forecasts for the Canadian interest rate is .25% for the fourth quarter of 2016, or a drop of .25%. Contrast this with the forecast for the US interest rate of .75% for the same period, or an increase of .25%. This could be a “Double Wammy” for the $CDN.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/forecast
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast

#27 [email protected] on 07.07.16 at 5:44 pm

5% of foreign buyers in 19 days of collected data…where is the data for the past 2 years? Living in North Vancouver I can say that I have watched open houses lined up with foreign buyers and their realtors and know this is not the case. Foreign buyer recently bought a $4million home, Edgemont Village, hoping to rent it for $7000.00 per month, waiting for their son to be of age to have him move to Canada and attend University and live in the home. I agree that this housing market is insane and believe the house of cards will tumble…

#28 pineapple_soup on 07.07.16 at 5:47 pm

DELETED

#29 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 07.07.16 at 5:47 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-prices-brexit-negative-interest-1.3659726

You anti-gold lickers are a hoot.

#30 Victoria Real Estate Update on 07.07.16 at 5:50 pm

Here in Victoria only 0.68% of all real estate deals went to buyers from all of Asia, not just China.

And now Garth’s post makes it clear that foreign money isn’t what has been behind Vancouver’s massive housing bubble.

It’s all about locals.

Canada’s bubbliest markets, Vancouver, Victoria and Toronto have only locals to blame for their housing bubbles, likely some of the biggest in the world.

No country has blown a housing bubble through lax lending standards and then maintained it without going through a massive economy-smothering housing market correction.

It must be frustrating for realtors who claimed (without proof) that Vancouver’s price run-up was due to something other than locals taking on dangerous mortgages to buy bubble-priced houses. They used that unsubstantiated argument as proof that it was different in Vancouver, claiming there would be no end to this hot foreign money and, therefore, no end to rising prices in Vancouver.

They were wrong.

That many locals took on mortgages based on this false information has resulted in blowing Vancouver’s housing bubble to what some consider to be the biggest housing bubble the world has seen.

The bigger the bubble, the bigger the correction.

In the US, west coast cities – LA, San Diego and San Francisco, wert through price corrections of 50% or more after making some of the biggest price gains of the US bubble years.

Now they’re lest wWhen they argued that (without proo

#31 rainclouds on 07.07.16 at 5:50 pm

The real culprits of this piece, have been central bankers depressing market interest rates, CMHC with its reckless mortgage insurance program and the bankers who are over-lending and under-scrutinizing.

I would add:
-Politicians drunk on tax revenue.
-RE Boards and their unethical practices making bank on their flagrant manipulation of fact.
-Compliant media unblinkingly parroting those lies.

Looking like Leaky Condo part Deux, the schmuck consumer gets nailed.

Cohodes is probably correct “This will make 2006-08 in the US look like Sunday School”

#32 Crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.16 at 5:50 pm

@#13 TurnerNation

Looks like a Pomeranian……..or Trumps hair piece…..same shape, color and both have identical IQ’s

#33 fleabitten monkey on 07.07.16 at 5:53 pm

It was only 20ish days of data.

#34 Smartalox on 07.07.16 at 5:54 pm

@#2: DeutsheBankWillFailSoon,

Your post reminds me of a game of Russian Roulette, with each of your choices representing a different bullet in the revolver – which will it be?

It doesn’t matter, they will all have the same effect!

#35 PT on 07.07.16 at 5:58 pm

Richmond woman’s e-petition calls for end to birth tourism in Canada

http://theprovince.com/news/local-news/richmond-womans-e-petition-calls-for-end-to-birth-tourism-in-canada

#36 Jonathan on 07.07.16 at 5:59 pm

Correct me if I’m wrong, but this data about foreign buyer is basically on the new property transfer form with the new box that says “oooh, oooh, me! me! I’m a foreign buyer!” is it not? (Country of Citizenship)

What’s to prevent the people filling out from not giving out correct info? What is the vetting process on ensuring the form is correct?

Also, I could be a Canadian Citizen (having immigrated here before) but the primary source of funds are coming from money earned offshore and possibly not reported (i.e. spouse still earning money in another country but the other spouse and kids are here, all citizens). From what I can tell the form won’t capture that (nor should it, as that’s more up CRA’s alley and a different topic on cracking down on that).

Here’s the form:
https://ltsa.ca/docs/Property-Transfer-Tax-Form.pdf

Again just trying to understand how much weight we can put on these stats released by de Jong & Co….

#37 steve on 07.07.16 at 5:59 pm

It’s not foreign nationals, it is foreign money. Is there a data in the study that shows how much of those billions came abroad?

#38 Mike in the Okanagan on 07.07.16 at 6:00 pm

“Get out”….reminds me of countless horror movies where those words are whispered but never heeded.

#39 Smartalox on 07.07.16 at 6:02 pm

Another interesting point about the stats reviewed today: that the 5% of foreign money is concentrated in the high-value segment of the market.

Guess that all those who bought cheap condos and flimsy developments really had nothing to fear!

#40 CUDIC in bc .....scary on 07.07.16 at 6:07 pm

back in 2009 the B.C. provincial govt decided to guarantee all GIC’s issued by B.C. credit unions for an unlimited amount of money rather than the normal $100,000. a real estate crash in vancouver will mean massive hits to the credit unions as their main money generator is real estate/ development related. when they blow up…..Miss Clark is going to have to cut some pretty massive chqs to cover the unlimited guarantees. i mean hundreds of billions. this is why her govt is claiming vancouvers housing market is balanced and will not go down any time soon. she is about to get a wake up call…….hahahahahaha

#41 Naga on 07.07.16 at 6:10 pm

Garth I have been catching up on ur blog and have the following questions observations:
1. With the Breeding and ongoing Japanese funk the global economy does not look great
2. Canada in this context still looks like a great place
3. Europe is getting worse with or without Breexit
4. US and the Trump factor does not bode well

Globalization is not delivering the expectations of today’s youth (under 35).

With the above context and given that for both GTA and Van got interference with development has resulted in skewed supply and demand for single family home I ask where is better place to park investments? And for most people equities and investment markets are too complex and full of manipulators, so why not invest in something that is real? With negative interest rates all around us rent to income benchmarks are not valid criteria.

I think I that a smart RE purchase today will still look like great investment 20 years from now. Not sure that an equivalent leveraged portfolio will fare as well especially after tax.

Naga

#42 Sebee on 07.07.16 at 6:14 pm

This whole OSFI, Bank of Canada and CMHC and their empty threats and too little too late policy are like parents that pretend their spoiled kid has discipline. I see this OSFI finger waving and I yawn. You’re done here? Move on.

I don’t have stats, I don’t know who or why, I don’t trust any number from anyone anymore. Everyone has interest in keeping this going, and going it will keep. 20% drop would get us to what? 2015 prices? Then what would happen? In the 2nd biggest country on the planet. Apparently, we’re really good at pretending there is a shortage of land here.

#43 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 6:16 pm

14% in richmond , 11 % in burnaby – both a very large part of the non fraser-valley land base in the 604 . removing 14 % of supply -should- send shockwaves into prices in a finitely supplied market with growing demand.

put 100 people in a room with meals for only 86 and see what happens. after prices there shoot up then you’ve still got 14 (or 11) people spilling over into the next room to steal(outbid) someone elses lunch. and so on.

but garth also does have a great point, it’s us canadians too. every month thousands and thousands more touque wearers vote with their feet to get the heck out of new glasgow, newmarket, or nunauvit and come live the BC dream , hence the houses should be worth more.

#44 YYCNotretired on 07.07.16 at 6:18 pm

But what is OSFI really going to do? Nothing. They delivered an OPEN LETTER. That’s enforcement in Canada.

And the banks, brokers, and those giving out 3rd (OMFG) mortgages know it too. Does OSFI even cover the shady lender people?

Banks are routinely offering out 8-10x GROSS income (not net) mortgages if you can self report a bonus, gifts, etc.

#45 Smartalox on 07.07.16 at 6:18 pm

One more thought, regarding the OSFI’s statement today:

– If they’re finally cracking down on dodgy mortgage loans, looking to verify valuations for the property, or verify income of the applicants, will these new measures apply to existing loans that may be up for renewal?

I mean, if you’re 5 years into a 30-year mortgage, and you fudged your numbers just to get the mortgage in the first place, what’s going to happen come renewal time? Is the bank (or more accurately, the ‘lending institution’) suddenly going to bust out a new set of rules?

And if so, what happens if you don’t measure up? If you’ve changed jobs, or retired, or your property’s value has declined? or your total debt service ratio has shot through the roof, because you commit 120% of your income to mortgage repayment?

Will mortgage-payers even be able to qualify at competing institutions? Or will the bank that gave you the first mortgage take advantage of your situation, and throw another point or two on your interest rate?

Maybe they’ll just hit you with a nice, round, balloon payment – the perfect antidote to a ‘bubble’.

Sure as shootin’ the Bank isn’t going to take the loss.

#46 Blacksheep on 07.07.16 at 6:23 pm

“It’s official.”

“Their market influence has been too minor to push overall prices higher.”
————————————-
Awesome news…

So….foreign influence is too small to move the market.

Check.

No government intervention will be required, to stop what isn’t happening.

Check.

Christy baby is smiling and so am I, all the way to the bank : )

#47 common sense on 07.07.16 at 6:23 pm

Bubble bubble toil and trouble..

US stock market over priced between 43 – 90%, European banks are fumes, House prices extreme…..

The stress cracks are now visible….when does this blow?

#48 Bill Gable on 07.07.16 at 6:26 pm

“Get Out”.

The same words I used as I begged my sixty-eight year old pal, to dump his home in Vancouver’s far Burbs, for an insane take, and stand back.
His wife thinks renters are ‘losers’.
He demurred.

Honestly, Mr. Turner – I was flabbergasted, as I drove past a simmering/ smouldering Burn’s Bog, south of YVR, and, to the right of the Freeway, my friend pointed out PLYWOOD, and glue “town homes” (*read CRAP) – facing the construction of a new span of the Fraser – will START at $1 million, when they go on the Market. Your view? A huge sand Berm, PLUS it is going to be a traffic nightmare, with trucks 24/7, working on that darned Bridge.

Heaven.

#49 Too Much Debt on 07.07.16 at 6:26 pm

The data was collected over a 19 day period…yep that is a large enough sample size. Nothing to see here, move along now…unbelievable.

#50 keepingyallhonest on 07.07.16 at 6:32 pm

Hi Garth,

I respectfully think 3- 5% of foreign buyers could actually have a huge impact. Example: a foreign buyers purchases a house for a much higher price than locals. This inflates the comp numbers and people get scared/manipulated by realtors and family into buying. 20 can transactions happen based on these escalating prices and fear (including offshore bidders that do not win and do not count as a foreign purchase but inflate the price). Then another foreign buyer does a bully offer and starts the death spiral higher again…

Really, with 5 foreign purchases you could have 100 local purchases that we extremely affected.

Regards,

Ed

#51 TRT on 07.07.16 at 6:33 pm

Study’s definition of foreign national”:

Excludes anyone with an address in Canada. Therefore includes foreign students, 10 year visitor visa people with an address here, etc.

Laughable really.

#52 Freeman on 07.07.16 at 6:34 pm

You want a surprise? Try this one on for size.

Looks like the big German bank ‘Deutsche Bank’ is near total collapse ( ” I’m in Awe at How Fast Deutsche Bank is Coming Unglued ” ) http://wolfstreet.com/2016/07/06/deutsche-bank-crisis-coco-bonds-shares-new-low-bond-buybacks/

There is now a 90% probability that Deusche Bank will be declared ‘INSOLVENT’ by the end of August at the very latest. This bank collapse will make the Lehman’s Brothers collapse look tiny by comparison.

As Deutsche Bank collapses so is the rates on US 10 year bonds. If Deutsche Bank totally collapses, the yield on 10 year US bonds will instantly go to negative rates, guaranteed.

Just look at these 2 charts, see how they are almost exact mirror images of each other:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=db&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57413711446

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$tnx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57413711446

When Deutsche Bank collapses later next month, expect the Dow to drop 2000 points in the first day, and another 3000 points over the next few weeks. I think that just might bring about a new recession in the U.S.

As for the Canadian economy: well, when the U.S. goes in to recession so will we, but with interest rates going negative our housing market will shoot to the moon once again, as banks will be giving out negative rate mortgages to any and all takers.

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.16 at 6:37 pm

No South Asians are investing in Lower Mainland RE?
Tired of blaming the Chinese dudes.

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.16 at 6:38 pm

#47
it’s actually only 14 business days.

#55 The Wet Coast on 07.07.16 at 6:43 pm

Garth I agree with your conclusions. But drawing conclusions from 19 days of data is like drawing a line though a single data point. Are you a lawyer or politician or something…lol The market has changed and it is possible the Chinese dudes are now gone. I sure saw lots of them at the open houses I was at. The same open houses that are now ominously quiet. I am by the way an engineer.

Chinese from China, or Chinese from Richmond? Were they wearing labels? — Garth

#56 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.16 at 6:43 pm

Garth is pushing all the right buttons again.
Will be an interesting evening.
Indulge in your favorite tipple and bring it on blog dogs.

#57 Nemesis on 07.07.16 at 6:45 pm

“Here are the key points, as reported by the breathless (but disappointed) Van MSM…”… HonGT

#MissedOne…

* Unpopular provincial government increasingly worried about losing next year’s election commissions methodologically flawed study which, “surprise”, confirms everything they and their largest political benefactors have been telling you. Recent steep increases in metro Vancouver housing costs definitively attributed to Sun Spots, says government spokeman.

#58 Kate on 07.07.16 at 6:52 pm

Hello Garth,
I’m closely following your blog (especially my DH, who brought me here). So, in the recent time I hear more talks from friends and other RE people, that Chinese capital is inflating the prices. Yes, capital, not buyers. I mean all legal and illegal ways possible to bring in foreign capital in Canadian real estate.

Could you please explain, how you can borrow money from bank to afford 2 million dollar house having average salary?? Especially in the light of average house price ranging ~2 million in Vancouver. So, you say 95% buying that are true Canadians?? I can’t believe in that, because the average income wouldn’t allow to have monthly payments more than 3-4K (for most of Canadians ) for 2-3 million dollar houses.

Moreover, I’ve recently found very interesting webinar video, which explains a lot about foreign capital..

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=pC6GStFNR8g

What do you think of that?

#59 therealstory on 07.07.16 at 6:59 pm

What’s all this about investment advice? I just come here for the photos.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.16 at 7:02 pm

Let’s look at the outliers, which quite often tell the whole story.
Richmond at around 15% seems plausible and partially explains why so many young Richmonites are moving to Surrey.
Another thing to consider is that Chinese usually buy their RE during special “cultural significant”times, like Chinese New Year or Autumn Festival.
All I’m saying is that there is more to the story that some Government stats can reveal.

#61 Trojan Houae on 07.07.16 at 7:05 pm

So, as pointed out on this blog many times, if wages are stagnant how are so many local people in YVR able to afford million $$$ homes??? They must be all millionaires.

If the mortgage lenders/appraisers are doing what GT has suggested they are doing then that constitutes fraud and they should be held accountable for it. How come that isn’t happening?

#62 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.07.16 at 7:07 pm

#10 Cottingham a bargain on 07.07.16 at 5:15 pm
Long way up for prices in near 905 , where you can still buy a real house on a real lot and where Asians are buying in droves( Canadians of Asian descent ).

Get in while you still can.

Bigot. — Garth
—————————————————————-
I don’t see any bigotry in his statement at all!
We should be able to identify groups without fear of repercussion.
Why can’t we identify a group even if we are wrong?

#63 Cici on 07.07.16 at 7:10 pm

#9 conan

Surely you can’t be serious? Yes, there’s probably some money laundering going on, but it’s probably more local than foreign anyways. And that isn’t of worry to the OFSI either…there aren’t enough foreign or in-house billionaires to be skewing the market in any reasonable way, and most importantly…if they’ve got suitcases of cash to spend unfettered on Canadian RE, the OFSI would be laughing it’s ass off at all these (make-believe) dumbass billionaires speculating with their own cash, because there would be no risk to banks or governments or tax payers when the SHTF…the only people with anything to lose would be the rich guys who paid in cash…duh!

What seems to be keeping the OFSI up at night is that there are lots of players (both residents and citizens) who are overextending themselves thanks to lax lenders who are enabling them by falsifying income and other qualification data, and overly generous social welfare programs for the virgins and the paper millionaire/billionaire speculators alike (i.e., CMHC).

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN0ZN1EV

#64 inflate - inflate on 07.07.16 at 7:10 pm

As long as interest rates are dropping or at least not on the rise in the near future, house prices in these 2 cities have nowhere to go but up…. Brexit has shown The world is in a fragile state and for this reason rates will stay low, low low for a long, long time,,, period…..

#65 Silent Observer on 07.07.16 at 7:11 pm

If indeed offshore purchases are only responsible for 5% of purchases in the 604, then yes, there will likely be a housing crash of biblical proportion. However, I suspect like so many of the statistics gathered, this too is a false metric. You know what I’m referring to GT, you’re always refuting the published statistics presented through the media, no?

In any event, we will see. If indeed 95% of this activity is through local purchasers (who are obviously way over extended), then down we go. If we stabilize, or even see a 20-30% drop (which isn’t much), then some foreign force is at work regardless of what the published statistics are attempting to indicate.
Time will tell.

#66 Pick and choose on 07.07.16 at 7:19 pm

For years I’ve read your blog as you pick apart, disect and generally give a insightful view as to why studies as stats aren’t to be believed. …I’m thinking TREB figures etc……yet here is a “study ” that so obviously misses the mark of what it’s supposed to be doing and yet as it fits into your “argument” then magic !!…the truth is now spoken.
I thought you were better than this!

This dara is 100% consistent will all other data to date. Explain that. — Garth

#67 Ole Doberman on 07.07.16 at 7:20 pm

Pheeeew! Good thing we cleared that up.

And it was nice to know the lab putting out Bre-X drill results easily fooled the entire world. And those numbers Arthur Anderson, Worldcom and Nortel were putting out were also legit.

Yep only 3% foreign buyers and all the hands on evidence of HAM didn’t amount to anything.

Average crack shack $1.7 million – all is good!

The only stats people believe are those confirming their bias. Sad. — Garth

#68 My Life is a Pile of Shit on 07.07.16 at 7:24 pm

I can reconcile the contradiction between public perception of foreign buyers and official statistics. The stats define a foreigner as someone without Canadian citizenship or residency. The public’s perception of a foreigner adds to that definition anyone who is a recent immigrant, with or without citizenship. Recent is a subjective term, and includes most, if not all, who did not grow up, or was not educated, or did not acquire their wealth in Canada. The public’s perception of a foreigner especially includes those whose primary spoken language is not English or French.

#69 Henry Olivere on 07.07.16 at 7:24 pm

Canada’s 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year bonds are not just low, really low these days, 0.46%, 0.49%, 0.53%, 0.71%, 0.97%, 1.55%, 1.55%.

These were in 3’s and 4’s just 5 or 6 years ago. What does the Canadian government, Bank of Canada, OSFI and others expect to happen.

They are letting people borrow at 1.6%, 2.1%, 2.5%, 3.0% mortgage rates on hundreds of thousands of dollars, million $+ in many cases.

They help spark the fire with such low and lower interest rates.

#70 Lee on 07.07.16 at 7:27 pm

What storm? What crash? Do you see the $ floating around in Toronto? Keep dreaming. I hear the Michelin Man is switching careers and becoming a real estate agent.

#71 @35 Steve on 07.07.16 at 7:28 pm

“It’s not foreign nationals, it is foreign money. Is there a data in the study that shows how much of those billions came abroad?”

Exactly Steve. That is the problem.

Its a red herring to say its about foreign nationals, thereby implying those making that argument are racists.

The factor driving the balloon is foreign money (i.e. a local Canadian selling a condo in Shanghai and transforming that into a house in Canada).

There is nothing “bad” about that – it’s legal and legit. It also happens to be driving the bubble, as I can see all around me. It also happens to be displacing a lot of locals with locally sourced money.

Again though, a lot of folks, particularly the PC crowd, see acknowledging that as a form of “racism” which usually wrecks understanding these issues, leading to poor recommendations (i.e. saying a house should only be worth 3X average annual income)

#72 Jeremy on 07.07.16 at 7:33 pm

You are so full of shit. An academic from SFU has released a paper with extensive data and analysis showing that prices have largely been driven by offshore investment. Even without this we all know people wouldn
t pay five times more for property than anywhere else in Canada just for ocean and mountains.

#73 pathcontrolmonk on 07.07.16 at 7:38 pm

“Richmond, foreign nationals accounted for 14 per cent”

ROFLMAO! HAHAHHAHAHAHAAAAHAHAHAAA!!!!

No doubt most of these people have Canadian passports, but kinda odd that 90% (rough estimate) of the realtor signs are in Chinese with Chinese real estate agents.

Puhleez.

Speaking English is not a requirement for being a Canadian, living in Canada. — Garth

#74 Ace Goodheart on 07.07.16 at 7:38 pm

RE: #8 BeSmartRich

“It seems that the correction (or should I say crash) will be spectacular considering the recent extreme and unreasonable growth of the prices. I will, of course, get in when there is blood on the street.”

Any correction in Toronto proper will be minor to non existent (ie, south of highway 401, west of Scarborough, east of Mississauga). The current values of houses in this area, are correct, affordable and within the reach of the population here, considering the location. A house here is a “step up” from a starter dwelling, affordable to a middle class worker or middle class couple, who have been in the game for ten years or so and have accumulated some net worth.

Vancouver appears to be another story all together. It would appear that the lowest end, most run down, decrepit dump of a house, which very few people would even try to live in, is affordable to only 1% of the population (who wouldn’t live in it anyway). It would appear that Vancouver price points for entry level, low quality housing, have recently passed the maximum affordability thresh hold for a middle class family and that residential land, either with or without a house, in Vancouver, is now affordable to only the very rich.

I would expect that sales of such housing in Vancouver will now “drop off a cliff” so to speak, as no one can buy the houses anymore. At that point I would expect to see price corrections, lowering of prices to the point that middle class families could once again afford them.

What worries me is what will happen when people in Vancouver see prices going down? Will someone buy a house for say, 1.5 million dollars, with a 20% down payment, when they see the prices of neighbouring houses decreasing?

This of course may not matter. There may be enough demand that if prices recede a little, back into the middle class affordability thresh hold, then people will pile back in and start buying, because land is scarce and they are not making any more. I guess we’ll see what happens.

#75 TRUMP on 07.07.16 at 7:49 pm

YIPPERS!!!…..Am I ever going to get even richer buying up depressed assets once this bubble bursts.

Thanks for the gift poor people.

Sonny was right, the working man “IS” a sucka!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X57GPA2J6E

#76 TRT on 07.07.16 at 7:50 pm

“…giving out Canadian citizenship in vending machines in China….”

Garth it’s true. I applied for visitor sponsorship for all my extended relatives overseas for my wedding. Considering I applied 3-4 weeks before the date, I wasn’t expecting the process to go thru due to timelines. Wedding passed and nothing.

2 weeks after the wedding, I got calls from overseas. All my extended relatives overseas that had land assets got approved for 2-10 year visitor visas.

I was dumbfounded. This after the event they were sponsored for. Now I’m going to have to do a heck of a lot of entertaining over the course of the next year.

One relative already arrived. First order of business was to visit UFV college. He wants to send his kid there ( who is overseas). There is a coop program there that gives you 1 yr work experience plus 2 years diploma —> perfect for PR!!

There are no 10-year continuous stay visas. The Parent and Grandparent Super Visa (Super Visa) is a temporary resident permit allowing parents and grandparents to stay in Canada with family for up to 2 years per visit, after which they must leave. They must be supported by relatives while here, and they are neither permanent residents nor citizens. Needless to say, there are nio ctizenship vending machines anywhere in the world. But idiots and misinformation abound. — Garth

#77 liqudincalgary on 07.07.16 at 7:50 pm

TurnerNation on 07.07.16 at 5:21 pm
What that the guy in blue shirt is holding.
Trump’s hairpiece?

=========================================

no, yours!

#78 Calgary Guy on 07.07.16 at 7:52 pm

Garth, thanks for your insight and humour – I enjoy both. I’m all about making sound decisions based on analysis of solid data and do my best to ignore the noise or opinions that can tends to permeate the news.

My question for you is how much of a change in the demand or supply of a product changes it’s underlying price?

The Van MSM data stipulates that approximately 5% of buyers in Van are foreigners. For all I care they could have broken the home buyer demographic into single moms ages 25-40, or families with 3 or more children, or average income over $200,000, or whatever. This doesn’t really tell me much. For all I know there could have been a higher percentage of foreign buyers in Van five years ago compared to today.

I’m much more interested simply in how much new demand there is compared to before. Are there a lot more buyers in Van compared to one, two, five years ago?

How much % of new buyers (demand) is required to have an effect on the Van house prices, assuming supply is being added at a constant rate? Does a 10% increase in demand equal a 15% increase in Van house prices? What’s the formula? Is it possible to figure this out based on past data?

Looking at it the other way, if Van home supply jumps 20% next year and demand is constant then how much would home prices drop?

When I was watching the oil markets begin to plummet almost two years ago I was surprised that the oil price dropped by more than 50% and yet the supply only increased a few percentage points. Just a few percentage points higher supply resulted in a huge price drop. Wow.

I know that you can’t directly compare oil markets to Van housing, it’s apples to oranges. But they both eventually follow the laws of supply and demand.

Any insight would be appreciated. Thanks.

#79 greyswan on 07.07.16 at 7:52 pm

It`s about foreign flows of money….or is it income
from employment in Canada?….the economy is back!!

…..sure that GDP growth is only 1.5% for Canada??

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.16 at 7:52 pm

Speaking English is not a requirement for being a Canadian, living in Canada. — Garth
—————-
But shouldn’t it be.
Just asking.

#81 rainclouds on 07.07.16 at 7:57 pm

Interesting the bias. I tend to believe the 5% . Dont trust much of what come from the Clarke Govt usually. Everyone is sure Asians with suitcases full of cash are the reason ( implausible as that is) No doubt the wealthy non residents do purchase drive up the average price ( Ross Kay indicated this)

Pretty clear, record levels of debt statistically borne out by GT weekly is the biggest component in the gas bag Vancouver has become.

Anecdotal but For quite a few years now I have made it a point to ask every realtor, mortgage broker, lawyer, notary I know or meet. “Who is buying based on your transactions “? Almost every answer is “young couples”

#82 Victor V on 07.07.16 at 8:02 pm

More than half of Vancouver Airbnb hosts use income to pay rent, mortgage: study

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/more-half-vancouver-airbnb-hosts-income-pay-rent-172221367.html

#83 Blacksheep on 07.07.16 at 8:04 pm

Mikey De-ong says: “Pointless taxing foreigners”

RE to the moon…….

#84 Southburnabygardener on 07.07.16 at 8:09 pm

Getting out, at least in YVR, is difficult to do. With a rental vacancy rate of less than one percent, just where are people supposed to live? Move father out and any savings are wiped out by having to purchase a 2nd vehicle. Desirable rental listings come on line and disappear in less than 3 days, often in less than 48 hours. We have been going to viewings of rentals and you are entirely at the mercy of the landlord. Yesterday we went to the viewing of a townhouse, there was a lineup of couples waiting to apply (3 Br/2.5 Ba $ 2400 pm). All the appliances in the unit were 20 + years old and just awful. There was a tear in the screen door. The blinds were all bent. Garth makes fun of those people
who want granite counter tops
/stainless steel appliances and I would agree some people have risked their financial future for the sake of perceived status. However a working kitchen (NOT an
electric stove from 1995) is not an unreasonable request. At this point all we have been able to find is a) places that are way, WAY, too small or b) reasonable square footage, but an unusable kitchen. Anyone selling their house in YVR be warned it is almost impossible to find a rental.

#85 Fed-up on 07.07.16 at 8:10 pm

Speaking English is not a requirement for being a Canadian, living in Canada. — Garth

—————————————————————————————————–

Well that is about the saddest statement I’ve read in a long time.

Gee, could we lower the bar any further to be Canadian and to be living in Canada?

My wife’s family spoke Polish all their lives. In Toronto. Her father was a Canadian soldier. You are scum. — Garth

#86 MF on 07.07.16 at 8:11 pm

#70 Lee on 07.07.16 at 7:27 pm

Debt gives the illusion of wealth buddy.

Make sure you take out the biggest loan possible to buy a house and another one for an awesome Lambo. Be sure to borrow a liittle more so you can vacation a few times ayear too.

#87 For those about to flop... on 07.07.16 at 8:11 pm

Well it’s happening.

Garth Turner / France has DELETED everything in their path and will meet Brazil expat/ Portugal in the final.

There is a good chance that France wins ,and with that I will have to become Garth’s stunt double for a year.

Not too sure how that is going to work out ,but one project I have up my sleeve is to build a time machine and swap out with Garth when he was in Stephen Harpers office being DELETED himself.

Stephen,you are in for a shock.

My only concern with this scenario is that means the Metrosexual Messiah would have to come into power earlier.

Maybe no TFSA at all,let alone a reduced one.

Screw it ,I will just let bygones be bygones.

Things worked our for Garth,Canada was probably the biggest loser.

Not too sure how the Cons let the bubble get so big.

All it needed was a prick…

M42BC

#88 MF on 07.07.16 at 8:14 pm

#70 Lee on 07.07.16 at 7:27 pm

Debt gives the illusion of wealth.

I think you should take out the biggest loan possible to buy a house and another one for an awesome Lambo. Be sure to borrow a liittle more so you can vacation a few times a year and buy the best designer clothes too.

This way your self esteem will sky rocket and all the girls will flock. Guaranteed. 100% fool proof. Easy.

MF

#89 White Privilege on 07.07.16 at 8:14 pm

DELETED

#90 Lorne on 07.07.16 at 8:17 pm

“Their market influence has been too minor to push overall prices higher. They are not responsible for an epidemic of flipping and speculation now gripping the market.”

#50 keepingyallhonest
Hi Garth,

I respectfully think 3- 5% of foreign buyers could actually have a huge impact. Example: a foreign buyers purchases a house for a much higher price than locals. This inflates the comp numbers and people get scared/manipulated by realtors and family into buying. 20 can transactions happen based on these escalating prices and fear (including offshore bidders that do not win and do not count as a foreign purchase but inflate the price). Then another foreign buyer does a bully offer and starts the death spiral higher again…

Really, with 5 foreign purchases you could have 100 local purchases that we extremely affected.

Regards,

Ed

………
Totally correct…..this is exactly what has happened.

#91 X on 07.07.16 at 8:20 pm

So what is Mr Morneau going to do about the banks lax lending, home buyers financial stupidity, and RE boards irresponsibility?

If rates aren’t going up it is up to him to break this one…..

#92 JohnOM on 07.07.16 at 8:37 pm

5-15% in some market is certainly not chump change. With 10,000+ sales a month that’s 500-1500 homes that are being sold to people that don’t even live in BC! When you throw in Ontario it’s a fact that there are thousands and thousands of foreign nationals buying homes in Canada every month!

Of course low interest rates and house hormones is raising prices, but why do you discard this material finding as being irrelevant? Canadians should be concerned of this and regulation is warranted.

Keep in mind these homes are being purchased at near double the average home price in both regions.

Stop downplaying this Garth, it’s a big factor, prices are elevated because of this type of activity.

There are innumerable markets in the world (oil for example) that can be totally distorted by just a 2-4% imbalance of supply and demand. Housing is no different. An influx of demand of 5% can easily distort a market and influence price. Garth of all people should know this!

#93 One month data?! on 07.07.16 at 8:38 pm

What an absolute joke. Try 24 months of data and then maybe we have something real to look at. One month is obviously a strategy by the liberals to throw some data at the public, knowing well that the majority of foreign buyers were making transactions previously for the whole year and 2015.

Garth I can’t believe you actually believe this nonsense data release by BC government. And why should we actually trust any of this data coming from the makers of panda bonds.? Are you kidding me?

And regarding osfi, have you tried getting a mortgage with banks these days? Ratios are tight as they can be. Banks use 3% of revolving debt as a payment, not 1% or interest only like you think. It’s already tight enough as it is.

What we need is a speculation tax, foreign buyer tax, empty house tax, new rules for realtors to ban all bidding wars, open data for historical Sale prices to the public.

That would be a good start and not hurt first time buyers.

I should be the finance minister, seriously.

#94 WUL on 07.07.16 at 8:39 pm

Tough year for Ft. Mac realtors.

Sales of single family detached:

Pre fire – April 2016/April 2015 – down 60%

May 2016/May 2015 – down 97.22%

FMREB

#95 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 8:40 pm

It’s like this.

Papa and Moma bear who’s mortgages have been paid of for years, want to get rid of there entitled snot nosed millennial mind fkd liberal kids.

They take out helock’s to fund a down payment to get rid of them on their new found wealth in skyrocketing real estate.

Popa and Moma across the street, will not allow their kids to be the renter losers, they get helocks

Asian money my ass.

This is home grown real estate terror.

#96 BC missed something important on 07.07.16 at 8:43 pm

Where’s the data on numbered companies, shell companies, nominees and relatives, lawyer offices, realtors offices used?

Foreign money is very good at hiding who they actually are….

#97 Joe2.0 on 07.07.16 at 8:53 pm

To honestly believe that all the foriegn RE purchases are
legitimately reported via RE “brokers” is a big mistake.

News flash-there are companies/lawyers that specialize in buying RE for people wanting to relocate money under the radar.

#98 statistics lie on 07.07.16 at 8:56 pm

The BC government is perfectly happy to cherry-pick data to suit their position that there is little foreign influence. They love the huge bonus in transfer taxes that pad their coffers. The data they have collected should be sent to social scientists at universities who have skills in data mining to get the real facts. There are so many families on the west side of Vancouver who arrived a few years ago on the investor program, where houses were purchased by “students”, while the breadwinner lives in China paying little if any income tax to the government. In the current study these would be classified under “permanent residents”. Other questions to ask: what percentage of single family homes (rather than condos) in different areas of the city were sold to locals? I would expect that locals drive the condo market, but in wide areas of the city other forces drive the detached home market. Christy Clark and her minions are not to be trusted; release the data for an independent evaluation.

#99 Quebec is Great on 07.07.16 at 8:57 pm

You are all anonymous. So some of you were wrong about HAM. Big deal, you are anonymous here so stop bleating about it and accept it.

Every third post seems to be from children who still believe 2+2=5 when the Garth just PROVED to them the answer is 5.

Stop whining and deal with it! I am embarrassed for you all.

#100 BS on 07.07.16 at 8:58 pm

In Metro Vancouver, foreign nationals accounted for five per cent of transactions…of which 234 transactions were by mainland Chinese buyers, followed by five by Korean, five by Taiwanese

One thing of note in the data is not one US buyer or European buyer or foreign buyer from anywhere but Asia which is 96% mainland Chinese. So much for the theory of Vancouver being a global city and everyone wants to live here. Most just laugh when they see the prices. What would the foreign buyer mix look like in New York for example. Nothing like this.

#101 rainclouds on 07.07.16 at 8:59 pm

#80 SM

Bingo. Homegrown stupidity……….

#102 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 9:03 pm

Cops are out of control.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A63Qh-c0T8Q

The girlfriend of Philando Castile, the black man shot dead by police during a traffic stop that was broadcast live on Facebook, has publicly pleaded for people not to use the issue to stoke racial division, telling reporters today, “all lives matter”.
…….
She is so right. I hope that cop gets the death penalty. Murdered this fine you kid in cold blood.

#103 BS on 07.07.16 at 9:04 pm

#74 Ace Goodheart on 07.07.16 at 7:38 pm

Any correction in Toronto proper will be minor to non existent (ie, south of highway 401, west of Scarborough, east of Mississauga).

Give it up Ace. Toronto will be down 50% minimum. Probably more in the nice areas. Just look at where prices were in 2003 when the bubble started. That is where they are going. You need to read up on bubbles.

#104 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 9:19 pm

#93 rainclouds on 07.07.16 at 8:59 pm
#80 SM

Bingo. Homegrown stupidity……….
…………….

When am I ever wrong?

Been downtown all this week. I almost forgot what it was like. Spent way too much time working and coding alone in my Gazebo. I just forgot all about the entertaining conversations that take place waiting for an elevators.

What I observed over and over with every smoke break.

Chic
“Oh Hi how was your weekend”

Dude
“It was fantastic, we did this and that, then some of this”

Chic
“Ha we did too, isn’t life wonderful”

Dude
“It was so nice seeing you again.”

Looking at the souls of Dude and Chic, They could not give a flying fk about what either had to say. Just going through the ritual. Inside both very capable for murder and adultery. Each to even remotely believable to a Dr of my calculable mind.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics

#105 Jim on 07.07.16 at 9:22 pm

Garth
Last night you made some comment on a post on the soon to be released foreign ownership stats along the lines of “Wow, one month of stats”
Now today you are playing up the statistics as solid evidence of the foreign ownership numbers in BC. My wife is a statistician and would agree with your comment from yesterday that a month of data can rarely say much of anything regarding trends, conclusions. etc

That’s obvious. But if the stats today had shown 40% foreign penetration, this blog would be lit up as never before, with the numbers taken as gospel. These results validate and conform with every other survey on the issue. What does your wife say of that? — Garth

#106 AK on 07.07.16 at 9:27 pm

“De Jong (the finance minister) broke down the numbers in four communities:”
====================================

How credible is this Dude ??

As opposed to an anonymous online guy? — Garth

#107 Ole Doberman on 07.07.16 at 9:31 pm

#67 Ole Doberman on 07.07.16 at 7:20 pm

Pheeeew! Good thing we cleared that up.

And it was nice to know the lab putting out Bre-X drill results easily fooled the entire world. And those numbers Arthur Anderson, Worldcom and Nortel were putting out were also legit.

Yep only 3% foreign buyers and all the hands on evidence of HAM didn’t amount to anything.

Average crack shack $1.7 million – all is good!

The only stats people believe are those confirming their bias. Sad. — Garth
———————————————————-
You hit the nail right on the head, and we know what your bias is – lol!

Look Garth I’m not trying to pick a fight here, and I know you’re a good man – I once called you the iron man, remember.

But if I was doing a study in a country where people are just livid, and a lot of lives have been ruined, I would look at ways to bend some numbers – wink wink nudge.

Every data set has reached the same conclusion. Show me yours and I will give it equal consideration. — Garth

#108 Ace Goodheart on 07.07.16 at 9:32 pm

RE: #102 BS:

“Give it up Ace. Toronto will be down 50% minimum. Probably more in the nice areas. Just look at where prices were in 2003 when the bubble started. That is where they are going. You need to read up on bubbles.”

Not entirely convinced that this is true. Going down 50% would mean you could buy a house in Roncesvalles for $500,000. There would also have to be a reason for the prices to go down. Right now there isn’t a reason. People can afford them, and new listings keep getting snapped up in bidding wars. Everything is selling over asking.

My theory on the “great canadian housing bubble” is a bit more complex. I think we are in a period of intense currency devaluation, caused by excessive government borrowing. Low interest rates are just a symptom of this. Governments have been borrowing in our name, for quite a while, and transferring most of the borrowed money to the upper 1% of our Society.

This has created the phenomena of delayed currency devaluation. Money is worthless, and hard assets like houses can’t be purchased outright anymore, because their value far exceeds that of the average incomes of middle class persons. However, the devaluation is delayed, because interest rates are very low, so if one wants to purchase something, one just borrows.

At some point this situation will be corrected, and the correction will be by governments printing money to pay off debt. This has already started in Europe. At that point, house prices will level out and stay pretty much where they are, with the usual yearly increases for inflation, IN TORONTO.

However, in Vancouver, we have a different situation. Again, we have currency devaluation, low interest rates, house prices rising as a result. But we also have this tiny pocket of land that is Vancouver, surrounded by mountains and ocean, and a massive number of people who want to purchase houses. The added demand created an asset bubble, with people begging, borrowing (and apparently to some extent stealing) to purchase houses there. The result is that the median price has climbed right out of the reach of the middle class, into the super rich only territory.

This situation is likely to cause a housing value crash in Vancouver in the next couple of years. It might not be that severe though, as there is still this immense amount of demand.

What people really have to worry about, is that your dollars, your salaries, your income, your savings, are being trashed by governments who are happily borrowing and transferring your children’s and grand children’s and great grand children’s tax dollars (and the value of your currency) to an increasingly smaller group of individuals. That is my big worry, and it drives my investment behaviour. I avoid anything remotely associated with the value of currency (ie, any Western or European currency).

Yes, idiots are always going to get burned borrowing excessively to buy houses. But we are all going to get burned if suddenly our 70K per year salaries can’t pay for food. That is the real problem we face. Our governments are happily borrowing and sitting on this massive interest rate/currency deflation bubble of worthless money, holding rates low because they know that they can’t borrow enough or collect enough taxes to ever raise rates back to normal levels. That will be the real crash.

#109 Joe2.0 on 07.07.16 at 9:34 pm

Quebec is Great

Really dude?

You believe everything your hear and can’t wrap you head around the fact that some people will do almost anything to hide money to avoid taxes or persecution?
What planet are you from?

#110 Yyc,lol on 07.07.16 at 9:40 pm

OSFI, in other words no bark, no bite

#111 Ole Doberman on 07.07.16 at 9:42 pm

You hit the nail right on the head, and we know what your bias is – lol!

Look Garth I’m not trying to pick a fight here, and I know you’re a good man – I once called you the iron man, remember.

But if I was doing a study in a country where people are just livid, and a lot of lives have been ruined, I would look at ways to bend some numbers – wink wink nudge.

Every data set has reached the same conclusion. Show me yours and I will give it equal consideration. — Garth
——————————————————
I’ve already provided these for you with sources such as these:

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com%2Fnews%2Fcanada%2Fin-a-six-month-period-70-of-detached-homes-sold-in-vancouvers-west-side-went-to-mainland-china-buyers

http://vanmag.com/city/the-van-mag-qa-ian-young-on-racism-and-real-estate-part-ii/

And a couple others, like the Quebec back door, from Armstrong Economics.

Did you hope I didn’t have these anymore :)

You were even reluctant to post, cause you know bias’s….

No credible data there. — Garth

#112 Leda on 07.07.16 at 9:43 pm

What do you think about the numbers being based on self-reporting?

Driving around greater Vancouver all day today, it was striking how many for sale signs no longer said SOLD

People are going to start wishing you were right in 2008, it would have been easier to manage the decline then. Now, everyone will suffer and a few will get rich.

#113 WallOfWorry on 07.07.16 at 9:44 pm

For those that are buying for the first time….bad news! But what percentage is that ? Isn’t the vast majority selling and buying and if there is a correction they ride it out?

#114 Say What? on 07.07.16 at 9:44 pm

#4 George on 07.07.16 at 5:07 pm

So true. Lies, bloody lies and statistics. I remember a math prof who recommended we stay in his statistics course because the previous years class had found employment at a weekly salary of $2000. Great. Of course, he later revealed that he had included a sample of only three students. Two of them were only earning about $400 weekly while one of the three had been hired by his father at a salary of $5200 weekly. He made an excellent point of how easily stats can be manipulated.

#115 Ace Goodheart on 07.07.16 at 9:45 pm

RE: #84 Fed-up:

“Speaking English is not a requirement for being a Canadian, living in Canada. — Garth

—————————————————————————————————–

Well that is about the saddest statement I’ve read in a long time.
Gee, could we lower the bar any further to be Canadian and to be living in Canada?”

Sure we could. None of the native languages of this place we call Canada, is English.

English is a language native only to immigrants.

And it is not even the first “native language” to be spoken by immigrants here. There are several that pre-date it.

So if you happen to speak one of the many, many, many native languages spoken in our country of immigrants, then I guess that is the “bar”.

Since when did language become a status symbol anyway? Hard to believe someone would attempt to judge someone else, based on what language they grew up speaking.

But hard to believe a lot of stuff I read on here…

#116 Bhatoa on 07.07.16 at 9:45 pm

Victoria realestate you are so ridiculous. The prices in Victoria have been going crazy and you try putting up made up stats to back the nonsense you’ve been posting here for years. Vancouver prices are moving over to Victoria now. It’s obvious to anyone who just drives down the street. HAM is definitely driving the prices in all of BC and it’s only just begun!

#117 Nero on 07.07.16 at 9:47 pm

Re125 AceG…..
Bingo!

Yep…inflation is only 1.9%…
nudge nudge, wink wink….

#118 my own business on 07.07.16 at 9:49 pm

The only stats people believe are those confirming their bias?! Come on Garth, that cuts both ways. This blog is nothing if it isn’t parroting a bias. We live with an unknown future containing risks that we can manage, but only by living within a reasonable margin of safety, not pretending to be God. To speak with the certainty that you bring to the national real estate conversation requires a lot of bias confirmation and a level of conviction that is interesting, but not necessarily right (at least as far as the call and the timing of it need to have a relationship). The past few years of the life of this blog is testament to an uncalled for level of hubris, but as we all know, that is what sells. Absolutely there are enormous risks out there, but this blog is no longer the call to action that it could be.

The blog’s key message of balance in one’s financial life is even more relevant now. Housing markets will tip, and those who loaded up on debt and believed an asset could rise forever, at the expense of a Plan B and diversification, will live to regret it. This ain’t hubris. It is wisdom. — Garth

#119 Ace Goodheart on 07.07.16 at 9:50 pm

Just in addition to what I wrote above, I didn’t mean to exclude the actual natives, who speak Canada’s many indigenous languages, which actually are “native” to this place. Just trying to point out that really Canada does not have one “native” language (it has a bunch of native languages, that are spoken by indigenous peoples here, and also many, many languages spoken by the various immigrant groups that populated Canada over the centuries).

#120 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 07.07.16 at 9:53 pm

Living in North Vancouver I can say that I have watched open houses lined up with foreign buyers

incredible that your eyes can determine citizenship

most likely it’s called racism

#121 Heisenberg on 07.07.16 at 9:56 pm

The fact that we’ve seen such a meteoric rise in YVR prices at the same time that the Canadian dollar has dropped shows to me just how much this “bubble” has been driven up by foreign money.

You think the government is going to publish any statistics that proves it has been complicit in attracting dirty foreign capital? Please.

As unsavory as it may seem, people should be thankful for what this government has done. It’s what’s keeping our economy alive, and it will continue as long as we’re seen as a safe haven investment.

Actually the YVR housing pop was in full swing when our dollar was above par with the US$. So much for that theory. — Garth

#122 acdel on 07.07.16 at 9:56 pm

These stats are just plain wrong; just like the current stats the the U.S. unemployment rate is only 4.5%.

You’re reaching Garth, it is wrong and you know it; or, you do not, I will trust my contacts on the street, in industry, the ones doing grinding, you know the one’s who are physically involved before I believe what anybody else has to say. Stats today are for the fools.

Most of you reading this pathetic excellent blog gets it.

#123 Joe2.0 on 07.07.16 at 10:05 pm

Walmark of sadkatoon

Got news for you if the buyers lining up are indicative of my hood in Edgemont and the recent sales in the past year then they are foreigners….

Unless you want to play the we’re all foreigners card.

Is foreigner now a bad word?
I live in MX also, I’m a foreigner there.
Grow up.

#124 Metaxa on 07.07.16 at 10:06 pm

Sure lots of experts out tonight.

Arguing against this quickie study by asking for more, longer, better whatever is a lot like honking your horn at the BMW that just passed you to closely.

Sure you make some noise but the BMW is long gone.

I will point out that Garth has consistently stuck to his stated position on the issue, the rest of you consistently move the goal posts.

#125 Peppy sue on 07.07.16 at 10:09 pm

My immigrant parents and their kin pooled resources in Toronto and shared a house, much to neighbouring whitebread disdain and, sometimes, ridicule. But in time this arrangement allowed everyone to save and purchase their own homes – it was the only way. When my parents made the break and bought our 3-story home in T.O., we lived on the first and rented out the other two for years, to expedite paying it off. And they did. Makes me wonder how many young couples or families are willing to do this today considering house prices in YYZ.

#126 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 10:12 pm

Anyone ever what a perfect heaven would be like.

To me it goes something like this.

Your in a room with Whites Black’s, Browns, Asians Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, Christans, Lesbians, Gays, Straights, and Nictonites and anyone I’ve left out.

All you do is drink and everyone gets a turn and makes fun of there oun kind, elevator stories. And we all laugh our asses off.

Heaven for me.

#127 Interstellar Star STuff on 07.07.16 at 10:13 pm

#105 Jim on 07.07.16 at 9:22 pm

Garth
Last night you made some comment on a post on the soon to be released foreign ownership stats along the lines of “Wow, one month of stats”
Now today you are playing up the statistics as solid evidence of the foreign ownership numbers in BC. My wife is a statistician and would agree with your comment from yesterday that a month of data can rarely say much of anything regarding trends, conclusions. etc

That’s obvious. But if the stats today had shown 40% foreign penetration, this blog would be lit up as never before, with the numbers taken as gospel. These results validate and conform with every other survey on the issue. What does your wife say of that? — Garth

Simple. Precision vs accuracy.

Data may be precise, or consistent, whether it is accurate is unknown, and than means it is not validated.

There are tons of flaws with such limited data… but anyways I couldn’t really care less one way or the other.. people are nuts is a major factor – they didn’t measure that either though.

#128 conan on 07.07.16 at 10:17 pm

There are many reasons why VCR house prices are insane. I believe that some of that reason is due to illegal funds coming in from Asia. Is it the only reason? No it is not, and I never said it was.

The Chinese government is now getting serious with funds within its borders that do not have a legal origin. Thus that money is getting out of Dodge.

Taiwan has a lot of this kind of money as well. Recent Chinese Gun boat/Island diplomacy is making it jittery.

We are talking huge dollars. Enough to make its presence felt in 25 + major cities around the world.

China has been around since 1500 BC.
Taiwan won the Chiang Kai-shek sweepstakes.

Canada willfully has the blinders on. We are benefiting from illegal funds. We are just as bad as Panama. No wonder the Chinese diplomats are pissed off.

I predict that I will be proven right in time and I don’t expect the people hurling poo in my direction to apologize.

#129 acdel on 07.07.16 at 10:19 pm

#125 Smoking Man

Tonight, for me personally; you have the right attitude; thanks.

#130 Binder Dundat on 07.07.16 at 10:19 pm

#83 White Privilege on 07.07.16 at 8:14 pm
DELETED

Best post ever! This is the crux of Brexit, HAM, and the popularity of Donald Trump, right there. White privilege, deleted. Brilliant.

I have let through enough anti-Chinese and anti-immigrant comments tonight. — Garth

#131 BS on 07.07.16 at 10:24 pm

#46 Blacksheep on 07.07.16 at 6:23 pm
“It’s official.”

“Their market influence has been too minor to push overall prices higher.”
————————————-
Awesome news…

So….foreign influence is too small to move the market.

Check.

No government intervention will be required, to stop what isn’t happening.

Check.

Christy baby is smiling and so am I, all the way to the bank : )

BC election May 2017 and I don’t recall a bigger election issue 10 months out. My sources tell me a foreign buyer tax coming by the BC Liberals within a month or two.

The BC Liberals could care less about your house or everyone else’s if it gets them another term. Plus a few hundred million in tax revenue coming from people who can’t vote doesn’t hurt. Without a tax the BC Liberals are out. They know the market is toast either way.

#132 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 10:26 pm

When you look into a mirror and feel like a victim. You’re a rasist of sorts. Think about it.

If you see a bald head, missing teeth a big belly and think you still got game.

You hate no one

You’re perfect.

#133 Ronaldo on 07.07.16 at 10:28 pm

#40 Sebee

”Apparently, we’re really good at pretending there is a shortage of land here.”

Exactly. For the heck of it I looked up the size of Taiwan in comparison to Vancouver Island and Taiwan is a couple thousand sq. miles larger than V.I. but has a population of around 23 million. Around 65% of Canada’s population. Nope, don’t think we’re running out of land for awhile just yet.

Been listening to the realturds preaching this shortage of land for the past 50 years. Bottom feeders the whole lot of them.

#134 observer on 07.07.16 at 10:30 pm

new rules should apply

If you own a million dollar house and haven’t paid any taxes or paid squat, you don’t get and health benefits and all the bells and whistles which us tax payers are funding.

Nothing is free, someone has to pay for it. If you didn’t contribute into the system you should get nada.

Too many foriegners work in their homeland and send their kids to live with a relative, getting free health , education, and government provided funding. While paying no taxes here, and feasting on little taxation in their homeland

Land transfer tax. Property taxes. Sales taxes. Municipal utilities and services taxes. Try owning a house and paying nothing. Another idiot comment. — Garth

#135 bsallergy on 07.07.16 at 10:35 pm

Garth how do you put up with all the idiots? Sheesh is it any wonder Stephen Harper was prime minister?

#136 Self Directed on 07.07.16 at 10:39 pm

Mark Cohodes, a retired Hedge Fund Manager who is coming out of retirement to short Home Capital Group (HCG), says… “Vancouver has become the money laundering mecca of the world or North America.”

He goes on to say that Finance Minister Mike de Jong is “full of more crap than a Christmas turkey.”

Perhaps Christy and Mike are not telling us the whole picture… they are going to lose the next election.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2804304/vancouvers-real-estate-is-fueled-by-a-money-laundering-bubble-market-analyst/

#137 Itsallsotrue on 07.07.16 at 10:45 pm

It’s also true that only 4% of Lamborghinis, Ferraris, Aston Martin, Bentleys , G-wagons and AMG s etc etc are only driven by Chinese nationals in Vancouver .
Another interesting point is that Vancouver House, a large high end condo development in the west end of vancouver, does not have a sales office/ showroom in the city…..but it does have one in Shanghai…..the developer clearly deciding to market only to 4% of potential buyers ???…..by the way it’s sold out !!

Vancouver House was certainly marketed locally. I went to the office. The disinformation here is stunning. — Garth

#138 Fed-up on 07.07.16 at 10:45 pm

#115 Ace Goodheart on 07.07.16 at 9:45 pm

RE: #84 Fed-up:

“Speaking English is not a requirement for being a Canadian, living in Canada. — Garth

—————————————————————————————————–

Well that is about the saddest statement I’ve read in a long time.
Gee, could we lower the bar any further to be Canadian and to be living in Canada?”

Sure we could. None of the native languages of this place we call Canada, is English.

English is a language native only to immigrants.

And it is not even the first “native language” to be spoken by immigrants here. There are several that pre-date it.

So if you happen to speak one of the many, many, many native languages spoken in our country of immigrants, then I guess that is the “bar”.

Since when did language become a status symbol anyway? Hard to believe someone would attempt to judge someone else, based on what language they grew up speaking.

But hard to believe a lot of stuff I read on here.

——————————————————————————-

I don’t even know where to start with that one.

English is one of our 2 official languages Ace, and dominates 9/10 provinces. Have you read the Canadian Constitution or Criminal Code regarding official languages? Or did you attend one of the thousands of Huron and Ojibwe speaking schools? I guess Italians should be speaking Latin paying homage to the Roman Empire right? That should go the French, German, Spanish and English as well too I presume? No official languages there because the Romans ruled their asses and everyone speaking latin for 6 centuries. I wonder how well you would do living in China or Japan and about 150 other countries when you
you dimwittedly ask,”Since when did language become a status symbol anyway?” Good grief.

And YOU can’t believe what YOU read here?

I think you just won the award for dumbest comment ever. And considering that Smoking Man posts 20 times per night, that’s quite an achievement.

#139 Mark on 07.07.16 at 10:48 pm

DELETED

#140 Steerage Bilge on 07.07.16 at 10:52 pm

104 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 9:19 pm

#93 rainclouds on 07.07.16 at 8:59 pm
#80 SM

Bingo. Homegrown stupidity……….
…………….

When am I ever wrong?

Been downtown all this week. I almost forgot what it was like. Spent way too much time working and coding alone in my Gazebo. I just forgot all about the entertaining conversations that take place waiting for an elevators.

What I observed over and over with every smoke break.

Chic
“Oh Hi how was your weekend”

Dude
“It was fantastic, we did this and that, then some of this”

Chic
“Ha we did too, isn’t life wonderful”

Dude
“It was so nice seeing you again.”

Looking at the souls of Dude and Chic, They could not give a flying fk about what either had to say. Just going through the ritual. Inside both very capable for murder and adultery. Each to even remotely believable to a Dr of my calculable mind.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomic

Given your alien predictions surely you should use
Prof. Dr. Dr. Smoking Man by now…..

#141 Tongues on 07.07.16 at 10:55 pm

Speaking English is not a requirement for being a Canadian, living in Canada. — Garth

—–

Technically – but where are the jobs for non-English/French speaking Canadians to earn decent income?

#142 Joe2.0 on 07.07.16 at 10:55 pm

re interstellar star stuff

People can be nuts but at the end of the day they are just doing what the well oiled system tells them.

Buy buy buy because if you don’t your a loser.
logarithmic fed sheeple.

#143 Long Branch Apprentice on 07.07.16 at 10:57 pm

Money is becoming worthless…

That’s why its basically being given away for free and why helicopter money is even being considered.

Obama better step in and say something down there, there could be riots by tomorrow morning.

My money sure isn’t worthless. Buys tons. — Garth

#144 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 10:59 pm

Mark Deleted.

Ha! the robot got drunk.

Rotflmao

#145 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.07.16 at 11:09 pm

#83 White Privilege on 07.07.16 at 8:14 pm
DELETED

Best post ever! This is the crux of Brexit, HAM, and the popularity of Donald Trump, right there. White privilege, deleted. Brilliant.

I have let through enough anti-Chinese and anti-immigrant comments tonight. — Garth
——————————————————
PROFOUND!

#146 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 11:09 pm

#140 Steerage Bilge on 07.07.16 at 10:52 pm
104 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 9:19 pm

#93 rainclouds on 07.07.16 at 8:59 pm
#80 SM

Bingo. Homegrown stupidity……….
…………….

When am I ever wrong?

Been downtown all this week. I almost forgot what it was like. Spent way too much time working and coding alone in my Gazebo. I just forgot all about the entertaining conversations that take place waiting for an elevators.

What I observed over and over with every smoke break.

Chic
“Oh Hi how was your weekend”

Dude
“It was fantastic, we did this and that, then some of this”

Chic
“Ha we did too, isn’t life wonderful”

Dude
“It was so nice seeing you again.”

Looking at the souls of Dude and Chic, They could not give a flying fk about what either had to say. Just going through the ritual. Inside both very capable for murder and adultery. Each to even remotely believable to a Dr of my calculable mind.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomic

Given your alien predictions surely you should use
Prof. Dr. Dr. Smoking Man by now…..
……

Two Drs Jesus, people would think I was a raving ego maniac.

A crime against humanity and their teachers programing.

THAT could get me murdered.. Sorry as much as I deserve two Dr’s in front of my name I’m not crossing that line.

I writing a book. And I need to finish it first.

Then shoot me.

#147 Sigh on 07.07.16 at 11:09 pm

@143

Its increasingly worthless. Needs almost 2m to buy a home in yvr

Nowhere else. What does that tell you? — Garth

#148 Long Branch Apprentice on 07.07.16 at 11:13 pm

Hey Garth,

Keep your money under your mattress and let me know how many tons it buys you in 20 years.

Money has been steadily losing value after we went off the gold standard.

Currency debasement is a tell tale sign of the end of empire. Not that anyone is concerned with that.

#149 Joe2.0 on 07.07.16 at 11:20 pm

DELETED

#150 fleabitten monkey on 07.07.16 at 11:21 pm

My kid’s kindergarten teacher said of Vancouver folks hoping for a correction – forget about it, Vancouver has been discovered by the international community and prices will never come down. Well, according to the “stats” collected, it looks like she is incorrect on that AND the “international community” is predominantly Chinese.

#151 sugarlips on 07.07.16 at 11:25 pm

Step back for a second everyone, the simple fact is that House prices are set at the margin by today’s buyers.

An ongoing 5% increase in demand (be they Asian, Americans, natives or wherever) is enough to push up prices – moreso when supply is tight and debt cheap as it remains for SFH’s in Van+Toronto

The law of gravity says if the 5% were somehow to stop (or be stopped) then prices will drop back but the reality is the powers that be will trash the economy if they turn off either the credit or migration taps at this late bubble stage.

This post is neither nationalist or racist – its just supply + demand.

Peace + Love to all

There is no evidence this demand is a quantum increase over previous levels. Anyone looking around Vancouver can see immigration’s been a feature of the landscape for over a century. — Garth

#152 rainclouds on 07.07.16 at 11:26 pm

#125 SM “Anyone ever what a perfect heaven would be like.
To me it goes something like this.
Your in a room with Whites Black’s, Browns, Asians Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, Christans, Lesbians, Gays, Straights, and Nictonites and anyone I’ve left out.”

Youtube
Muhammed Ali’s memorial service,
Everyone you mentioned except for the cigarette people…….
The greatest

#153 Self Directed on 07.07.16 at 11:31 pm

Janet Yellen and the FOMC are using things like the Brexit outcome as excuses to NOT raise rates. They don’t know how to fix this… they only understand cyclical events.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/07/federal-reserve-interest-rates-to-stay-low-for-some-time-gartman.html

#154 surprize on 07.07.16 at 11:34 pm

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/7/chinese-buyers-bc-real-estate-june-just-3/?platform=hootsuite

I think I gave up, if realtors are laughing at government data…

#155 Lastline on 07.07.16 at 11:51 pm

If somebody can convince Michael Burry from the Big Short to create a Canadian housing market short fund then I’m in. I’ll buy my own house in cash with the profits after this one craters…Ahahahaha!

#156 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.16 at 11:51 pm

Garth,
Talking about statistics:
About 80% of the posters think that you are wrong about the foreign investors in the Lower Mainland.
So, who do you trust more:
Christy Clark and De jong (who owns 9 properties) or your loyal blog dawgs?

A majority of the rabble here also supported Brexit. They were wrong. — Garth

#157 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 11:55 pm

The day a Nictonite meet David Bowie
…….

Didn’t know what time it was and the lights were low
I leaned back on my radio

Some cat was layin’ down some rock ‘n’ roll ‘lotta soul, he said

Then the loud sound did seem to fade
Came back like a slow voice on a wave of phase
That weren’t no D.J. that was hazy cosmic jive

There’s a starman waiting in the sky
He’d like to come and meet us
But he thinks he’d blow our minds

There’s a starman waiting in the sky
He’s told us not to blow it
‘Cause he knows it’s all worthwhile
He told me

Let the children lose it
Let the children use it
Let all the children boogie
I had to phone someone so I picked on you
Hey, that’s far out so you heard him too
Switch on the TV we may pick him up on Channel Two

Look out your window I can see his light
If we…

#158 Jon B on 07.07.16 at 11:56 pm

Nonsense. Who says two weeks of data constitutes a definitive finding on foreign ownership or anything big-picture? This run up in prices has been going on for years. With so many ways to buy RE in combination with highly accommodating immigration policies, we’ll probably never get reliable data on the real origins of money that has been getting plowed into real estate in BC.

#159 WUL on 07.07.16 at 11:56 pm

YVR real estate aftermath:

“We know it’s wrong to let this fire burn between us

We’ve got to stop this wild desire in you and in me

So we’ll let the flame burn once again until the thrill is gone

Then we’ll sweep out the ashes in the morning”

“We’ll Sweep Out The Ashes In The Morning” – Gram Parsons & Emmylou Harris

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vK5791FtJ2g

#160 Smoking Man on 07.08.16 at 12:06 am

When the wife is rambling about a dress at your neises wedding. Botching about your 500 dollar tie. And you tell her wear the last one you had at the last wedding.

I’m sleeping outside tonight. Where the hell is the moon.

#161 Love My Kia on 07.08.16 at 12:11 am

126 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 10:12 pm

Anyone ever what a perfect heaven would be like.

To me it goes something like this.

Your in a room with Whites Black’s, Browns, Asians Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, Christans, Lesbians, Gays, Straights, and Nictonites and anyone I’ve left out.

All you do is drink and everyone gets a turn and makes fun of there oun kind, elevator stories. And we all laugh our asses off.

Heaven for me.
============================
You forgot liberals and conservatives.

I’m pinko and have con friends, we’re pretty happy together when we don’t talk politics.

#162 No inflience on 07.08.16 at 12:21 am

if foreign buyer influence on the market is negligible then Why not restrict / ban it.

If it is such a small impact, banning it should have no consequence on the market right.

#163 Joe2.0 on 07.08.16 at 12:22 am

Garth

How were they wrong about Brexit?

Because the pound devalued?

There’s a large number of people that voted who don’t think it was wrong.

So who’s right?

#164 Sc on 07.08.16 at 1:15 am

Garth you are completely out to lunch. You don’t live in Vancouver, you have no idea what is going on here. Go to any open house here. Maybe 10% English-speakers. Guess who the rest are??? I’ll give you a hint- many come in from Quebec under their scam immigration program.

#165 Brazil ex-pat on 07.08.16 at 1:22 am

#156 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.16 at 11:51 pm
Garth,
Talking about statistics:
About 80% of the posters think that you are wrong about the foreign investors in the Lower Mainland.
So, who do you trust more:
Christy Clark and De jong (who owns 9 properties) or your loyal blog dawgs?

A majority of the rabble here also supported Brexit. They were wrong. — Garth

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Umm……Brexit happened.

#166 MDQ on 07.08.16 at 1:34 am

I find it surprising, Garth, that you are gloating over 19 days of stats. How accurate is this information? What is the deviation? What is really needed here is data on capital origins. Who cares if people are ‘Canadians’ or not if their capital is foreign?

#167 Disgusted on 07.08.16 at 1:38 am

Even if the foreign transactions are 3%-5% per year, a greater understanding is needed. Are the foreigners likely to be on the sell side of the transaction?

If not, if you sell off Vancouver on the low side of 3% per year it only takes 17 years to sell over half the city to foreigners. Which, having lived in Vancouver for 17 years, feels pretty close to the truth.

#168 millenial1982 on 07.08.16 at 1:42 am

The average income of the typical blog dog was what, again Garth? I recall a high number and I think that number was artificially bloated by the foreigners. NO way the local crowd here is capable of that caliber.

#169 Shawn on 07.08.16 at 1:55 am

We shall not believe

As I said before, people believe what they want to believe.

Any data to the contrary will be rejected. Always.

#170 NotRadical&NotRacist on 07.08.16 at 2:15 am

Thanks Garth for these comments:
Chinese from China, or Chinese from Richmond? Were they wearing labels? — Garth
My wife’s family spoke Polish all their lives. In Toronto. Her father was a Canadian soldier. You are scum. — Garth
I have let through enough anti-Chinese and anti-immigrant comments tonight. — Garth

Garth, thanks for pointing out that not all foreigners are Chinese. And Chinese Canadians are not propping up the market.
There are many who are not in the 1% nor do they have friends or family that are in the 1%. Many are over leveraged just like the Caucasian counterparts.
Chinese Canadians have been in Canada since 1880’s. There is no need for envy or speculation….
Many of Chinese Canadians also rent in the YVR market and do not buy into the Real Estate Hype….
It so happens that many of the the top real estate agents are Chinese Canadian in Vancouver and are the envy of many….

For those who are judgemental, this map takes equal shots at different enthic groups….
Take a look at this and laugh fools…
http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2016/03/judgmental-map-vancouver/

#171 nubbers on 07.08.16 at 4:48 am

Joe2.0 @163

Garth

How were they wrong about Brexit?

Because the pound devalued?

There’s a large number of people that voted who don’t think it was wrong.

So who’s right?

Let me answer this with my personal observations in South East of England.

From what I have seen, those who supported Remain are educated, young, have a global outlook, have responsibility for others or are in business.

Those who I know of in the Leave camp are ignorant, xenophobic and blame others for their own problems.

The arguments presented by Remain campaigners, turned out not to be fear mongering after all. Maybe this is because they are the ones with the responsibility and the ‘big picture’ view and because they actually knew what they talking about.

On the other hand, the Leave campaigners peddled lies to the ignorant and emotions the racist elements. When they won, what did their leaders do? Try to move Britain forward with their vision for the future? No, they had no plans for the future, there was no vision. An extra £350 million/week to the Health Service? Nope, turned out to be a lie, as Nigel Farage admitted. They just resigned, turning away from their responsibility – we’ve done our bit – you sort everything out now.

The pound is devaluing for a reason. The UK stands to lose a lot of income.

Yes, there are a lot of Romanians (and others) doing some very poorly paid work living in the UK. However, there is a very large number of British earning top Euro from Europe – finance, business and IT resource on perhaps 10 or 20 times the rates that the EU invaders are on in the UK. If, post Brexit, immigration into the UK is blocked, then so is a lot of this European earnings coming into the UK.

Yes, overall the UK pay money into the EU (not actually the amount of the Leave campaign’s lies), but this is peanuts compared with the value of European Trade. This is why the vast majority of the educated and business people were in favour of Remain. This is why trading has been suspended in an increasing number of property funds, as investors rush for the exits.

The Brexit referendum was not right vs. wrong. It was trade, cooperation and vision vs. lies, ignorance and bigotry.

#172 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 07.08.16 at 5:07 am

The blog is getting scary Garth. Canada was built on immigration, and is dependent on open trade and flow of funds.

It does not matter that foreigners are buying assets here, as the free market will sort this out over time, or perhaps everything should be given back to First Nations.

People crying about Chinese dudes and non-English signs reminds me of Quebec before Meech Lake. Compare the groth of GTA to Montreal since then.

#173 Tony on 07.08.16 at 5:12 am

It’s nice the government officials have their heads buried in sand like the stork. Why it’s so obvious the Chinese are 100 percent responsible (maybe even 110 or 120 percent responsible) this is like in WWE wrestling where the entire crowd sees some illegal underhanded tactic one wrestler uses to win a match and the referee misses it every time. In this case the government officials are the WWE referees.

#174 Beeny Urban on 07.08.16 at 5:31 am

Garth, the government admits to cherry picking data from a three week window in June. Are we really supposed to believe that the Chinese Lobby hasn’t pressured the local fobs into puking up the nonsensical response they did?

Your guy was right, they ARE selling Canadian passports out of vending machines in China, and now there’s so many Chinese voters in the ghetto’s of Vancouver and Richmond and tax payer funded extremely powerful lobby groups that we’d better shut up about it or they’ll withdraw their support.

Another big fail for multiculturalism.

#175 Pepito on 07.08.16 at 6:22 am

Speaking English is not a requirement for being a Canadian, living in Canada. — Garth
—————————

Correct. Canadians need not use English (or French) in their daily lives, but they certainly need to be proficient in either English or French to receive Canadian citizenship. The levels of proficiency required for Canadian citizenship are clearly spelled out by Citizenship Canada http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/citizenship/become-eligibility.asp#language

Public employees must use one of the official languages when communicating with the public, and I would think that it is not unreasonable for Canadians to expect to also receive service in one of the national languages when dealing with the private sector. This includes, all types of business signs, in restaurants, pamphlets and advertisements as well as any private-public meetings such as condo strata meetings where at least one of the participants requests the use of one of the national languages.

It’d ridiculous that no such language requirements for the private sector serving the public seem to exits in Canada at present.

#176 Zen Headspace on 07.08.16 at 6:52 am

Investing is best approached as a Zen practice – one that’s marked by peace, detachment and acceptance.

Investing is risky. We know that truth, although sometimes we like to deny it.
Stress and strife comes from that denial. We feel disappointment when reality doesn’t align with our expectations.

Our sheer sense of helplessness compounds the disappointment. After all, the markets are outside of our control. We can’t place an angry phone call to the the government when stocks or house values tumble. We can’t have Mommy talk to the teacher and make everything okay.

Investing peace comes from embracing the risk, accepting our lack of control and letting go of the outcome. Yes, risk is real. You will bust your butt to earn real dollars that will disappear into the ether. And that’s okay.

Relax. That’s just the nature of investing. Let it go.

There are no returns without risk. They keep each other in balance. Risk and return are two halves of the same body; they cannot be separated. That’s the yin yang of investing.

The sooner we quit denying half of the equation, the more peace we’ll feel with our investments.

When our investments rise, we cheer. But when they drop, we panic. The emotional yo-yo is exhausting – like a school girl crush.

The emotional yo-yo is an investor’s worst nemesis. It causes both panic selling and “buying at the peak” (i.e., buying houses in Toronto or Vancouver in this environment).

Instead, take a zen approach: be neither happy when your investments rise, nor sad when they fall.

Just observe what happens, but don’t emotionally respond to it. If you feel yourself reacting – (and you will) — re-centre yourself. Release any hopes, fears or expectations that you hold. Let go of what happens next.

Let go of the compulsion to check your balances and your “current house value”. Tell yourself “this is only temporary,” regardless of whether your portfolio or real estate value is soaring or sinking.

Shrug when your net worth rises, and shrug when it falls.

Stop swimming against the tide, and listen to Garth’s advice on this blog.

In general:

1) Earn more, save more, invest more.

2) Choose diversified, liquid investments with risk levels you accept, such as index funds, REITS, preferred shares, bonds, dividend paying blue chip stocks, or rental properties.

3) Let go of the outcome. Accept that whatever happens, happens.

4) Do not over borrow to finance inflated residential real estate.

5) Do not buy into the hype of any market frenzy.

Focus on the amount you invest each month (within your control) rather than the performance of those investments (outside your control).

Don’t discuss your investments with anyone other than a spouse, mentor or trusted fellow Zen investor.

The “masses” will urge you to panic and/or celebrate, and you should do neither.

Embrace detachment from the outcome. You’ll feel more at peace, and you’ll also be a better investor.

#177 Joe on 07.08.16 at 7:09 am

These frankenumbers have no value. We know stats are easily manipulated and don’t represent the real situation.

#178 Al on 07.08.16 at 7:38 am

Still not enough info to make a conclusion. When you say transactions, do you mean purchases or both purchases and sales? If foreign buyers are making 5% of purchases but rarely selling, then cumulative foreign ownership could be quite high creating a tight supply situation.

#179 Dallas Is The Future on 07.08.16 at 7:47 am

Wealth disparity, institutionally sanctioned racism, and finger wagging at the struggling middle class and poor while the 1% gets richer – this is what lead to the appalling murders in Dallas which no one can support.

The problem is that so many now perceive that the appalling killing of civilians by police IS supported by the mainstream wealthy who run society.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_killings_by_law_enforcement_officers_in_the_United_States

This is what leads to revolution and chaos.

Sadly, it would not be surprising to see this spread to more attacks on police, and targettng of the wealthy as well.

No excuses for the killers, includng those who wear badges.

But this is what happens when we willingly create a society where the rich get richer at everyone else’s expense.

Even the T2 government does not seem to get this – they won’t intervene in the Canada Post issue, where women workers sinly want pay equity in their jobs – which is THE LAW in Canada!!!!

When the laws are not followed, or when they simply do not work, people make up their own laws, sometimes violent and simplistic.

THAT is what Dallas respresents.

We are all heading into deep trouble.

#180 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.16 at 8:16 am

Well.
I guess time will show us who has really been buying these homes.
When the crunch hits and mortgages rise who ever paid these ridiculously unaffordable prices should be wailing loudly at the unfairness of it all…… my money is betting the majority of soon to be bankrupt whiners will be the parents of young families that were stupid enough to loan a small fortune to the FOMO crowd.

And as this blog has consitantly stated…..putting all ones financial eggs in one basket is financial suicide. All the rest of these unquantifiable “arguements” about race are a waste of time and energy.
Focus people.
Get your finances in order.

#181 jay on 07.08.16 at 8:24 am

B.C Liberal’s have zero credibility Garth.Goodbye Chrusty.
http://www.news1130.com/2016/07/07/bc-homes-foreign-nationals/

#182 Work and Tumbel on 07.08.16 at 8:31 am

People today see there home as a Investment at this time and we all know times change.
Our home is custom made to fit my Wife & Dog kids on weekends as they grown. (Not grown up)
Larger city lot in a Ontario city with smaller home on the property. (don’t like house work) (have a lawn service)
The home is a good fit”

I never really have looked at it as a Investment as one day when its time to sell and move to a condo or old guys home it might have a low or high value as the market has High and Low times but I am not counting on it as my Investment for retirement . I have saved for my retirement and the house never was part of that plan, but I noticed lots are planning to use there home as the retirement plan and that is a bad investment if the market is down when you need out.
I have a very nice home nicer than most” but its just a nice place to live not a investment.

I know most people don’t agree with me so I don’t say anything in a social setting as people have even insulted me as they continue to say how much money they have made on there home this year…. times will change they always do, save and pay off your bills as rates are low and don’t buy a BMW or Bends it makes you look like an ass.

#183 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.16 at 8:47 am

Holy crap!
287,000 jobs added in June !
How do you like those frankenumber stats Joe ?

#184 ROTFL on 07.08.16 at 9:15 am

How is it that a 2% fee on a mutual fund represents a long-term disaster but 5% declared foreign buyers (by transactions, maybe 7% by dollars) in a real estate market is no biggie?

And who says delusional locals aren’t part of the problem? Mischaracterizing others’ arguments and then belittling them might be de rigeur in the House, but out here it’s called a straw-man argument, and considered somewhat gauche.

#185 Ace Goodheart on 07.08.16 at 9:17 am

RE: #138 Fed-up

“I think you just won the award for dumbest comment ever. And considering that Smoking Man posts 20 times per night, that’s quite an achievement.”

” I wonder how well you would do living in China or Japan and about 150 other countries when you
you dimwittedly ask,”Since when did language become a status symbol anyway?” Good grief.”

Not sure if you’re right with regard to your comments on language and the “150 other countries”. I have lived in many places. I have found that North America has a weird obsession with “official this” and “country that” which the rest of the world just pays lip service to. We seem to love borders, nationality, designating everything, all the time.

Live anywhere in Europe, you will find that each place you go to has a local dialect, which is not even remotely similar to the language that the country is supposed to be speaking. You will find that the only place you hear the “official language” is at Universities. Many people can’t speak the official language. Locals learn the dialect. If they do well in school, then they learn “high German” or whatever.

China, South Korea, Taiwan, all the same. Local dialects.

Most North American English speakers, who have traveled a bit, don’t know this, because when they travel, they use English speaking guides. You learn it when you try to interact with the local population, using your perfect German that you learned at University. No one understands you, and you can’t understand anyone else. Then you figure it out, local dialects, changing every few hundred kilometers. Only the educated speak the national language.

In Canada, we have a very well educated population. Again, the rest of the world isn’t like this. Most people don’t go to school past age 8 or so. Everyone is taught English (and is supposed to be taught French, but the reality is that this isn’t happening). So we end up with a “country” (a North American idea, that again, the rest of the world tries to figure out and pay lip service to) that speaks “English”.

Really it is just an education type, political thing.

But it shouldn’t be made into a status thing, or something to use to look down at other people.

The thing I always find very funny, is that English speakers, when they travel, are different than basically every other native language speaker that there is. When any other language speaker travels, the first thing they do is try to learn the local language, of the place that they are going to. Usually they learn it before they leave for their trip.

English speakers don’t do that. They go to the place, and then they attempt to speak English to the locals. When they are not understood, they take the position that the locals are not very smart (because they can’t speak English). I always found that very ironic. Considering, that the location is not an English speaking location, who is really the one who is not very smart?

At any rate, interesting reply, but I don’t agree with you.

#186 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 07.08.16 at 9:24 am

DELETED

#187 Donna Swanson on 07.08.16 at 9:28 am

U.S. jobs report for June-2016 came in much higher, 287,000 jobs created but the bond market actually yields go lower today. Most were projecting 180,000 at most.

Canada’s June-2016 jobs report showed a loss of 700 jobs much lower than 6,000 jobs that were predicted to be created which were not.

What the bond market is pointing to is that world economies and the U.S. will have slower growth with some going into an economic downturn, recession.

#188 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 07.08.16 at 9:34 am

the US is BOOMING

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-june-2016-2016-7

canada is not

http://www.businessinsider.com/canada-jobs-report-june-2016-7

trend is easy to spot for even the blind lol

#189 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 07.08.16 at 9:35 am

#175 Zen Headspace on 07.08.16 at 6:52 am

one of the best posts of the day

#190 Lucy on 07.08.16 at 9:41 am

Garth, love your blog and have been a fan for many years. Don’t know how you deal with the comment section on a daily basis thou – amazing. Smoking Man, five hundred dollars for a tie – in Cape Breton your handle would be Twit and the moon last night was beautiful.

#191 Neil Armstrong on 07.08.16 at 9:54 am

My wife’s family spoke Polish all their lives. In Toronto. Her father was a Canadian soldier. You are scum. — Garth

BOOYAH! Haha. ‘You are scum.’ I love it… I have appropriately more filthy words for Fed-up and the rest of the scum-bags like Never Give Up, Cottingham, Confusing, Ponzius, Wet Coast, Ole Doberman, Pile of Shit, Binder Dundat, and the rest. Astonishing. You people need professional help from two things I like to call Education and Empathy a.k.a. my left and right fists.

#192 For those about to flop... on 07.08.16 at 10:01 am

One of the problems is that the horse escaped from the barn a long time ago.

The B.C Liberals in an election year are still unwilling to try and catch the horse, instead they have decided to bend down and pick up some of the horses droppings to see what the horse has been eating.

As someone in the party said…

” What a load of horseshit”…

M42BC

#193 Grantmi on 07.08.16 at 10:03 am

These BC numbers are just the slim level on the pond, and not the real story. Agree with most blog doggies here. Follow the money!!

Landed foreign Student buying $30 million dollar home in Point Grey, and claiming I make $3,000 on my income taxes working at a Campus Starbucks is the real problem.

Straw-man Children and Wives purchasing homes, while the patriarch works off shore paying none of his WORLD INCOME as taxes in Canada, is the real issue.

That kid must have outbid you for the $30 million house. No wonder you’re sore. — Garth

#194 MF on 07.08.16 at 10:05 am

#184 Ace Goodheart on 07.08.16 at 9:17 am

“In Canada, we have a very well educated population. Again, the rest of the world isn’t like this. Most people don’t go to school past age 8 or so. Everyone is taught English (and is supposed to be taught French, but the reality is that this isn’t happening). So we end up with a “country” (a North American idea, that again, the rest of the world tries to figure out and pay lip service to) that speaks “English”.

-Absolutely not. In Toronto speak to any immigrant from any other country and you will see they very much are still connected to “back home” and still speak their native language when they can (along with English). “back home” is a land mass with borders, a flag and a spoken language. That sounds a lot like a country to me.

#163 Joe2.0 on 07.08.16 at 12:22 am

-The pound devaluing is a good thing….at least that’s what these idiot CB’s tell us right? Great thing for Britain among a few other things millions of people have fought and died for in the past (Freedom, Sovereignty).

MF

#195 Jimbo on 07.08.16 at 10:19 am

Commercial real estate paints a different picture.

http://m.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/chinese-now-the-leading-foreign-buyers-of-canadas-commercial-properties-210057.aspx

#196 Grantmi on 07.08.16 at 10:19 am

That kid must have outbid you for the $30 million house. No wonder you’re sore. — Garth

No!

He/She didn’t outbid me on that home.

But some of the other out-of-state students are outbidding me on other homes in MY AFTER TAX DOLLAR price bracket.

#197 Mr. Frugal on 07.08.16 at 10:26 am

#190 Neil Armstrong on 07.08.16 at 9:54 am

You people need professional help from two things I like to call Education and Empathy a.k.a. my left and right fists.

————————————————————

It’s pretty sad that you need to resort to threats of violence when you disagree with someone’s opinion. What is happening to this country?

#198 AfterTheHouseSold on 07.08.16 at 10:26 am

Surprise!

Just received the ‘Working Parent Family Bonus (Alberta)’ from the government.
That would be all well and good except I am retired and live in Ontario.
How many of these went out across the country?

#199 Victor V on 07.08.16 at 10:36 am

U.S. job growth surges in June in huge boost to economy as confidence returns

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/u-s-job-growth-surges-in-june-in-huge-boost-to-economy-as-confidence-returns

Canada job market stays flat in June as unemployment rate falls to 6.8%

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-unexpectedly-sheds-700-jobs-in-june-but-unemployment-rate-dips-to-6-8

#200 TnT on 07.08.16 at 10:37 am

#171 nubbers on 07.08.16 at 4:48 am

Those who I know of in the Leave camp are ignorant, xenophobic and blame others for their own problems.

Blame the Others as mentioned are the globalists who gain from moving “general labor” to cheaper markets for profit.

It is no secret that the West middle class has the paid the largest price for Globalization.

The Remain camp should have did a better job at selling / educating the benefits of Globalization and have in place better support for educating / training the middle class for a new economy.

#201 Renter's Revenge! on 07.08.16 at 10:39 am

#188 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 07.08.16 at 9:35 am
#175 Zen Headspace on 07.08.16 at 6:52 am

one of the best posts of the day

———–

I’ll second that

#202 Grantmi on 07.08.16 at 10:42 am

#172 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 07.08.16 at 5:07 am
The blog is getting scary Garth. Canada was built on immigration, and is dependent on open trade and flow of funds.

It does not matter that foreigners are buying assets here, as the free market will sort this out over time, or perhaps everything should be given back to First Nations.

First off! Rock NEVER beats PAPER!!

Second! Yes! Canada was built on hard working immigrants landing in this country (like my father did) and working his ass off, paying taxes and contributing to this great country! On occasion sending money back to the ol’ country to help his parents!

Immigrants CLAIMING to be interested in living in Canada, but not paying their FULL share of taxes that is the heart beat of the Canadian economy, that helps pay for schools, roads, and the growth of this country is a completely different story!

Signed! PAPER BEATS ROCK!!!

#203 Silent the people on 07.08.16 at 10:44 am

The Big Short – Canadian style! I guess the taxpayer is on the hook! “US or Canadian style” Let the money printing start!

#204 Bat Flipper on 07.08.16 at 10:44 am

The difference in jobs between Canada and USA is insane. It seems the USA has/wants nothing to do with us really. We were a 1 trick pony (oil), that they have insane supplies of. The world is a float in oil.

New Technology has even brought manufacturing back to USA. How? Robots are doing the work now. Foxconn replaced tens of thousands of workers, so why pay a foreign company to build widgets when you can have your robots pumping out widgets on home soil.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36376966

#Trump. With betting odds, Clinton is the clear Favourite at 72.7% likeliness to be elected. However, who knows? No one expected Brexit. Trump may want to make ‘Merica great again’. If so, Trump will be building more walls around America. Yikes.

But, you read it on every news stand, foreigners taking jobs, bidding up houses, stealing food out of your kids mouth, etc. etc.

Not really, if you do research on stats Canada, you will quickly learn that foreigners and immigrants take up the bulk of the low paying jobs in Canada. The higher paying jobs are still going to the old guard.

Yes, there is foreign money coming over even if it is just 5%, but in investing, 5% more buyers than sellers can have massive impacts on the price of a financial product over the long run. Heck, the stock markets gains can be solely attributed to more buyers than sellers.

The challenge of the government is to balance the market. They don’t want a crash, obviously, but they do want it to flat line for at least 5-10 years, but how?

Obviously, Canada sans Van/GTA is declining, so something has to be done to target this demographic. Most things won’t work though. A buyer with more than 20% down payment can almost get whatever they want as long as they are willing to pay the rate, and we all know that when prices go up on high end properties, it pushes the whole market higher.

It is really just a house of cards.

#205 Alex on 07.08.16 at 10:45 am

Hi Garth,

I do agree that the anti-immigrant sentiment is saddening. It’s also incorrect for folks to label immigrants as same thing as “foreign investors”. Many of the immigrants who want to make Canada home from Asia are bringing in a ton of money as well and much of that goes to housing. Canadians and locals taxed at source at rates nearly 50% cannot compete in the same space for bidding or save up enough to get into the local real estate game. You got more people wanting to live in TO or Van which is driving up the price. It’s a reality that we have to live with and pricing is going nowhere unless some sort of economic catastrophe but the government is applying band aids to keep the blister under wraps through dangerous policy. As long as folks with money keep coming to live in the big cities, prices will keep going up.

Hug your families and stop worrying so much about it. Nothing can be done and the machine fueling the massive growth is bigger than us.

#206 Rainclouds on 07.08.16 at 10:50 am

Another billion $ Hedge fund circling CDN RE

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/07/08/vancouver-real-estate-crash_n_10869538.html

“Everywhere this has happened, there’s been a price adjustment,” David LePoidevin said. “It’s time to watch ‘The Big Short’ again, except insert Canada.”

Mark Cohodes:
“In bubbles, or in life, people can get mighty fat before they keel over and die of a heart attack,” he said. “And bubbles can get big before they pop.”

Every Day, bad news. “Chinese” Water Torture

#207 James on 07.08.16 at 10:55 am

#160 Smoking Man on 07.08.16 at 12:06 am

When the wife is rambling about a dress at your neises wedding. Botching about your 500 dollar tie. And you tell her wear the last one you had at the last wedding.

I’m sleeping outside tonight. Where the hell is the moon.
……………………………………………………………………..
Roll over and look up you idiot.
Smoking Man we all know you are new to this country and planet. Have you ever considered ESL classes?

#208 Ping Liu on 07.08.16 at 10:59 am

Reading the blog and comment this is what is called race baiting.

Blog takes chinese versus local position that mischaracterize situation that baits local canadian into extremist position. Blog post implies positions no one takes to be controversial.

More proof that this brand of liberal race baiting is simply other side of same coin and is all too common reason race and gender politics color over the substantive issues now.

But hey, its asians right? No one cares, and you know thats true.

#209 Vamanos Pest on 07.08.16 at 11:41 am

Garth, you’re kind of being drawn into an argument that is beneath you. I agree, the urge to speak out about xenophobia and racism when confronted with it is strong (as it should be). But these losers have made up their minds. Their problems in life are not their own fault, and it’s easiest to blame a group that can be identified on sight.
Let’s stop the argument, and just delete their comments. Sure, it’s a free country, but why not make this blog a totalitarian dictatorship based on tolerance and respect?

You have the power (it’s your blog)

#210 RA on 07.08.16 at 11:43 am

Sorry to disagree but :

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/7/asian-real-estate-conference-ridicules-government-/

This makes more sense (though many of your points on other posts I would agree with)

#211 BOOM! on 07.08.16 at 11:44 am

Well despite this overly pathetic comment section today of an otherwise 1st rate financial blog, there are things I CAN do:

1. Strive to have adequate financial means in retirement.

2. Know my country works best, when it works for all.

3. Eliminate Debt.

4. Ensure the holdings are balanced.

5. Keep my opinions private, but structure my actions.

#212 TurnerNation on 07.08.16 at 11:45 am

The elites keep unleashing nihilists upon us. To create chaos, then change.
(Look how they used 19 strawmen years ago.)

Expect new harsh laws and crackdown on our freedoms of movement. No debate. Just global action.

Our leaders will continue to offer “outrage and sympathies”.

#213 Fair is fair on 07.08.16 at 11:46 am

There is a petition on change.org to add a few Asian languages to the official list in Mtero Vancouver. That means you will have to know one of the Asian languages to get a government job. Also public schools must offer instruction in these languages. Also hospitals, residential care homes must offer cultural and language services.

This is great! Hope you support it Garth.

Race baiting. Shameful. What a xenophobic, fearful, sad and angry place YVR is becoming. — Garth

#214 Jean Francois on 07.08.16 at 11:53 am

Garth,
Simple comment. Thank you for doing what you do, I don’t know if you reap any monetary benefit, I hope so, but thank you.
Keep going, we need you !

#215 The Big SHORT on 07.08.16 at 12:29 pm

“Offshore buyers account for about 5% of trades. Locals are responsible for 95%.”

If you think 5% cannot affect prices, you are NAIVE …

I was watching the ” BIG SHORT” on Netflix yesterday and the important thing I learned is, system is corrupt and nobody has a full knowledge or gives a shit.

Imagine, a offshore customer goes to a community and bids on a house . If listed price is $1 Million, and to make sure he gets the house, he bids $1.5 million. Guess what, that whole community just have their home price increased by $500K… Realtor sees the sales, and he lists the next house based at $1.5 million… BOOM…
Now another offshore customer bids $2Million for this…. Rinse Repeat…

This is how a whole system can be affected.

Now me being a normal responsible local… goes and asks the house for $1Million based on the price few months ago… I will be laughed out the door.

#216 Toronto_CA on 07.08.16 at 12:42 pm

I’m seeing a lot of posts about the US and Canada job numbers, but what is missing from the blog dogs (and some mainstream media reports including the CBC) is that the 700 net loss is highly misleading.

– Manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs, down 30,000 total in the last year
– 40,000 FULL time jobs replaced with part time jobs
– 38,000 paid jobs in public and private sector replaced with increase in self-employment
– Labour participation rate drops for THIRD month in a row and the drop is concentrated in the core working age group 25-54.

This is not the sign of stable, strong, healthy economy.

#217 Aggregator on 07.08.16 at 12:43 pm

November 1974: Foreign Banks Invade Canada

Lured by the protest of political stability and great mineral wealth, bankers from the United States and other foreign countries are flooding into Canada, and the Canadians are not quite sure how to react.

Many seem to be confused between the difference of capital inflows and foreign ownership, yet they always assume prices paid on inflated homes must be foreigners since the average local income doesn't justify the transaction. Wrong thinking. Capital inflows (mainly bonds) indicate the level of lending by global investors and institutions to Canadian households, businesses and governments. Thus, one shouldn't think of our market as place for sellers and buyers, rather sellers and lenders willing to lend to borrowers. Is this a new phemenon? Is it any different this time compared to before? No, it isn't.

So why are global investors and institutions still willing to lend to Canada with home prices swelling beyond fundamentals? The answer can be found on this table. Evidently, there is a lack of positive yielding global bonds and with Canada's AAA rated 10YR yielding +0.988 (a record low as I type), it's a pretty good investment for yield-starved investors.

Keep in mind Canada's housing market is primarily funded with Canada Mortgage Bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities. These investment vehicles are backed by property titles and Ottawa's AAA rated sovereign guarantee, making them highly attractive to investors and careless as to who and what type of mortgages are stuffed in them. The point: as long as the rest of world (Europe & BRICS) remains in worse condition, Canadian bonds shall remain an attractive investment. That said, when our market implodes (and it will end badly here), is when the rest of world gets better and capital decides to leave Canada. At that point, there will be absolutely nothing the BoC and Ottawa can do to stop those outflows.

If you want the big picture over the long run, all this really means is a lower Canadian dollar or a loss of purchasing power for those on fixed incomes. Nobody really wins in these situations, except the 1%.

#218 A box in the sky on 07.08.16 at 12:51 pm

Well knock me over with a feather – presented with data that goes against their pre conceived notion, the majority of people here just dig their heels in and say the data must be wrong or fraudulent. What a shocker.

#219 Smoking Man on 07.08.16 at 12:57 pm

#208 TurnerNation on 07.08.16 at 11:45 am
The elites keep unleashing nihilists upon us. To create chaos, then change.
(Look how they used 19 strawmen years ago.)

Expect new harsh laws and crackdown on our freedoms of movement. No debate. Just global action.

Our leaders will continue to offer “outrage and sympathies”.
……………..
Part of the New World Order Agenda.

One govt for the whole world. This is how you do it.
You get
Blacks vs Whites
Woman vs Men
Renters vs Home Owners
Middle class destruction.

Outright lies about the climate so the herds attention is taken away from the destruction of their purchasing power and way of life.

#220 Bone Thrown on 07.08.16 at 1:01 pm

Ain’t no accident the markets screaming hot while the jobs numbers are tanking. The RE market is rolling over and the only safe haven in town is the equity market. My estimation is that we get back over 18500 by summers end ( a season which is usually dead as a door nail) and then it takes off like a rocket in November after the US election concludes with a narrow win for Hillary ( yes I cut a stinking fart when I wrote that) but the plunge protection team includes the deep politico’s with too much to lose if democracy replicates a brexit with a Trump win, too much uncertainty in that.

Canadian job losses will continue to spike, they always do when the stock market accelerates and the real estate market tanks, jobs can stay fugly for several years as the market bounces along, creating a screaming howl of pain from the people who get stuck with a patch of grass they can’t sell while watching the market go parabolic. The future is only months away.

Look for safe havens to blast off first ( but this is already happening) , like the staid dividend utilities, then the seemingly underpriced secondaries on the venture.

#221 Truckstop Dumb-ass on 07.08.16 at 1:01 pm

Where is lala?

#222 Ole Doberman on 07.08.16 at 1:07 pm

#190 Neil Armstrong on 07.08.16 at 9:54 am

My wife’s family spoke Polish all their lives. In Toronto. Her father was a Canadian soldier. You are scum. — Garth

BOOYAH! Haha. ‘You are scum.’ I love it… I have appropriately more filthy words for Fed-up and the rest of the scum-bags like Never Give Up, Cottingham, Confusing, Ponzius, Wet Coast, Ole Doberman, Pile of Shit, Binder Dundat, and the rest. Astonishing. You people need professional help from two things I like to call Education and Empathy a.k.a. my left and right fists.
———————————————————
Well you just showed your true colors by lumping all these names together – I got news for you…..

I AM A POLISH IMMIGRANT! Go Polska!

Garth I think it’s time to start banning dogs like Neil.

#223 DON on 07.08.16 at 1:18 pm

#106 AK on 07.07.16 at 9:27 pm

“De Jong (the finance minister) broke down the numbers in four communities:”
====================================

How credible is this Dude ??

As opposed to an anonymous online guy? — Garth
***********************

I understand the overall premise, but in BC it is election year and the BC Liberals / Social Credit politicians have shown that in fact they cannot be trusted and spew out whatever helps their agenda (especially this current BC lot). Why did it take so long for them to declare a low level of foreign influence. Perhaps they omitted some of the data – as I do not believe they suddenly became honest. De Jong is not a good politician, he owns 7 properties and has skin in the game. I am still waiting on the LNG windfall, guess someone should have mention to the Politicians that the world was awash with LNG (prices low) when they used it as a big carrot in the last election. Lies…nothing but lies. This is banana politics not federal.

#224 renter dude on 07.08.16 at 1:22 pm

Beware of slimy realtors.

I called a realtor to see a rental property he listed. He showed me the property, I liked it and asked him to send me the forms so I can put an offer.

Slimy ba$tard included a Buyers Representation along with the rental application forms. Is this even legal to sneak a BRA without even telling the client about it?

#225 Fed-up on 07.08.16 at 1:26 pm

DELETED

#226 Mr. Frugal on 07.08.16 at 1:28 pm

#219 Ole Doberman on 07.08.16 at 1:07 pm
#190 Neil Armstrong on 07.08.16 at 9:54 am

My wife’s family spoke Polish all their lives. In Toronto. Her father was a Canadian soldier. You are scum. — Garth

BOOYAH! Haha. ‘You are scum.’ I love it… I have appropriately more filthy words for Fed-up and the rest of the scum-bags like Never Give Up, Cottingham, Confusing, Ponzius, Wet Coast, Ole Doberman, Pile of Shit, Binder Dundat, and the rest. Astonishing. You people need professional help from two things I like to call Education and Empathy a.k.a. my left and right fists.
———————————————————
Well you just showed your true colors by lumping all these names together – I got news for you…..

I AM A POLISH IMMIGRANT! Go Polska!

Garth I think it’s time to start banning dogs like Neil.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’ll second that. We don’t need folks threatening violence.

#227 DON on 07.08.16 at 1:35 pm

#126 Smoking Man on 07.07.16 at 10:12 pm

Anyone ever what a perfect heaven would be like.

To me it goes something like this.

Your in a room with Whites Black’s, Browns, Asians Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, Christans, Lesbians, Gays, Straights, and Nictonites and anyone I’ve left out.

All you do is drink and everyone gets a turn and makes fun of there oun kind, elevator stories. And we all laugh our asses off.

Heaven for me.

***********
With you on this thought – really there is no need for racism. But then again I am racists – yah…I don’t like idiots. lol

#228 Ole Doberman on 07.08.16 at 2:24 pm

Looks like everyone is starting to flock to stocks and gold – as governments are falling apart all around the world.

Smart money is shifting from public to private and hard assets.

You are getting tiresome. — Garth

#229 Rainman on 07.08.16 at 2:51 pm

There is a petition on change.org to add a few Asian languages to the official list in Mtero Vancouver. That means you will have to know one of the Asian languages to get a government job. Also public schools must offer instruction in these languages. Also hospitals, residential care homes must offer cultural and language services.

This is great! Hope you support it Garth.

Race baiting. Shameful. What a xenophobic, fearful, sad and angry place YVR is becoming. — Garth

————————————————————–

Garth – because a few idiots post this sort of trash doesn’t mean you should bash YVR and it’s people? it only brings you to their level? you’re better than that.

#230 Sam Miller on 07.08.16 at 2:55 pm

If in fact foreign realestate investment is a significant factor in rising prices, the emphasis of our discussion should be on Canadian regulations not the particular ethnic identities of foreign buyers. It is all too easy to blame a particular group of ‘outsiders’ for our predicament. This unfortunate tendency leads to the racist statements we see in this comment section. However, if foreign realestate investment is negligible, as one commentator pointed out, why allow it in the first?

#231 Murdoch on 07.08.16 at 3:09 pm

#226 Ole Doberman on 07.08.16 at 2:24 pm

Looks like everyone is starting to flock to stocks and gold – as governments are falling apart all around the world.

Smart money is shifting from public to private and hard assets.

You are getting tiresome. — Garth
———————————————————
I agree with Doberman on this one, even with the jobs report smashing expectations gold continues it’s ascent.

Why else could this be, people are losing confidence in government, gold is a hedge against govs.

#232 Braj on 07.08.16 at 3:11 pm

#108 Ace Goodheart on 07.07.16 at 9:32 pm
RE: #102 BS:

“What people really have to worry about, is that your dollars, your salaries, your income, your savings, are being trashed by governments who are happily borrowing and transferring your children’s and grand children’s and great grand children’s tax dollars (and the value of your currency) to an increasingly smaller group of individuals. That is my big worry, and it drives my investment behaviour. I avoid anything remotely associated with the value of currency (ie, any Western or European currency).”

——————————————————————-

What kind of investments do you hold? I’m ready to eat up any advice on the issue.

Would you suggest investing in stock market ETFs? Canada / US / International? I’m looking for a passive method..

#233 Freedom First on 07.08.16 at 3:11 pm

#175 Zen Headspace

Yes.

I control both my mind and my heart. Takes practice. Knowledge is Power. Emotions can destroy your life in every way.

My decades of practice continues to keep the insanity/static/noise out of my life.

Enjoy your comments Zen Headspace.

#234 Braj on 07.08.16 at 3:22 pm

#175 Zen Headspace on 07.08.16 at 6:52 am

Wow. Fantastic post.

#235 SWL1976 on 07.08.16 at 3:24 pm

You’re an animal Garth. When I read your post last night, I thought here we go again.

While I don’t have a dog in this fight, I know current gubberments are not to be trusted, especially the BC libs. Either way, the masses are not as crazy as the real crazies pulling the strings. Like all them central bankers pulling the strings and having private meetings about public interests.

We live in interesting times where the ones who are creating the problems are also the ones manipulating the truth to keep us all confused and bickering about what the one hand is doing while the other slowly tightens the noose on an uniformed and misinformed population.

The elites, the real crazies know full well that this system cannot exist without belief

This is only the begining of the madness to come

The folly of empire

#236 Ugh. on 07.08.16 at 3:52 pm

Wow, people in these comments need to get a clue.

1. Immigrants from China are Canadians.
2. Anecdotes are not evidence.
3. Studies based on “Chinese sounding” names are racist and bullshit.
4. Only the privileged can make home ownership a “social justice” issue. What a joke.

This blog makes me sad too. Well, the comments anyway.

“Their market influence has been too minor to push overall prices higher.” Wooo off to smugly send this to the boyfriend! Thanks Garth.

#237 Sunshine on 07.08.16 at 4:06 pm

typo?
So now wonder
should be
So no wonder

As usual, you rock Garth.

#238 jess on 07.08.16 at 4:09 pm

4 George on 07.07.16 at 5:07 pm

an exercise in financial engineering

Prem Sikka is professor of accounting at the University of Essex who breaks it down for ya

http://www.theaccountant-online.com/features/comment-the-uk-financial-reporting-council-cant-investigate-bhs-audits-4944726/

#239 Heisenberg on 07.08.16 at 4:19 pm

I just wanted to thank the poster #58 “Kate” for posting the link to this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC6GStFNR8g

It was an interesting talk, even if I don’t agree with it all, it was still worthwhile watching.

Kinda like this blog. I don’t always agree with you Garth, but I’m a loyal reader and try to participate constructively in the conversation.

#240 N M on 07.08.16 at 4:28 pm

Why would you write about this topic? You must have known what was coming in the comment section. I live in the lower mainland and the numbers seem odd to me. I was driving into work the other day and looked over seeing an “N” new driver sticker on a Lamborghini and the driver was an Asian guy no more than 20 years old. Made me smile and think of this blog. He may very well be a Canadian kid, what ever the case there is a lot of money out here.

#241 Ole Doberman on 07.08.16 at 4:41 pm

Wow you guys remember Oliver Cres. going for $3.8 – well price is relisted for $3.6 million, sign of things to come?

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2088271/2348-oliver-crescent-vancouver

Doberman does it again…..

#242 The Awakened One on 07.08.16 at 4:44 pm

I’m just trying to keep my shorts on man… hopefully the tides are washing out soon… and those naked will be known.

People inside the bubble do not / will not accept or recognize there’s one. Like living inside the Matrix. Until you actively try to wake up, and get out!

#243 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 07.08.16 at 4:46 pm

#200 Grantmi on 07.08.16 at 10:42 am

“First off! Rock NEVER beats PAPER!!”

NEVER? Gold is beating bonds and stocks year to date!

“Immigrants CLAIMING to be interested in living in Canada, but not paying their FULL share of taxes that is the heart beat of the Canadian economy, that helps pay for schools, roads, and the growth of this country is a completely different story!

Wrong about this. First off, the property taxes are just getting bigger and bigger and pay for services such as schools that these foreigners don’t use. Second off, our biggest industry in property development. These foreign buyers are supporting all those jobs every time they buy property. Those workers pay taxes and the economy hums along. They take all the risk, we get all the benefit, from taxes to jobs for builders real estate agents, government workers etc…

You clearly do not understand what you are talking about. Just another bigot mired in his ignorance.

#244 LP on 07.08.16 at 4:47 pm

#224 Mr. Frugal on 07.08.16 at 1:28 pm
#219 Ole Doberman on 07.08.16 at 1:07 pm
#190 Neil Armstrong on 07.08.16 at 9:54 am

You people need professional help from two things I like to call Education and Empathy a.k.a. my left and right fists.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’ll second that. We don’t need folks threatening violence.

**************************************

You’re right. Before you know it someone brings his cousins, Smith and Wesson.

#245 Ronaldo on 07.08.16 at 5:21 pm

#175 Zen Headspace on 07.08.16 at 6:52 am

http://affordanything.com/2013/09/16/the-zen-of-investing/

Is this your web site?

#246 AK on 07.08.16 at 5:33 pm

#106 AK on 07.07.16 at 9:27 pm
“De Jong (the finance minister) broke down the numbers in four communities:”
====================================

How credible is this Dude ??

As opposed to an anonymous online guy? — Garth
==================================

It appears that I am not the only one questioning his numbers. A number of newspapers are doing the same today…

#247 Smoking Man on 07.08.16 at 5:36 pm

Ha El Chapo has escaped again….

#248 tsail on 07.08.16 at 5:38 pm

jumping to conclusions based on less than a months worth of data? I am enjoying this…

#249 Julie K. on 07.08.16 at 5:42 pm

US 10 year bond goes negative today for a short time. Wow. Likely European money looking for safe haven. Surprised not getting more attention.

~ via @OilandGasInvest and @PainCapital

#surprise

#250 Metaxa on 07.08.16 at 5:47 pm

#207 Vamanos Pest
Garth, you’re kind of being drawn into an argument that is beneath you. I agree, the urge to speak out about xenophobia and racism when confronted with it is strong (as it should be). But these losers have made up their minds…

As tiring as it may be for our host to cull and delete, I kinda like it when they are allowed to expose themselves for what they really are.

Makes it easy to dismiss a future post extolling this or that or whatever, maybe.

There are, however, some very loud voices in these comment sections who go on and on and no one calls them out…so I also understand Neil Armstrong’s hyperbole…as I understand those adversely reacting to it as if it was real.

Because its real to them, eh?

Thankfully the views expressed by all too many of these so called blog dogs represent a very small minority of real Canadian’s views. At least the Canadian’s I know and interact with.

Which is why it will be a very long time before Canada enjoys a sound, balanced and working conservative government.

#251 Nero on 07.08.16 at 5:53 pm

The data and talking points are no surprise at all….
But, as we live in the finest of Orwellian times…
whose bias’ have been confirmed?

Not difficult to do. Simply follow the money…

…Pass me my fiddle.

#252 Scott Cordier on 07.09.16 at 9:06 am

The person that mentioned capital controls in bank deposit withdrawals and GIC’s not GIS’s, there already is one which is $500 cash a day limit at bank ATM’s.

Bank card, debit card purchases are $2,000 to $2,500 a day at most banks, credit unions and other financial institutions.

These will be reduced in the future as they were a few years back already, $1,000 a day cash versus $500 today at bank ATM machines.

As for GIC’s, once the money is locked for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 some up to 7 years that is a form of a capital control because it is non-redeemable for many years.

#253 Manny on 07.09.16 at 1:27 pm

The party will go on for a long time as the governments are not interested/able to raise interest rate to normal values. You can buy any house if you can afford it at 6.5 % mortgage rate or buy it 100% cash.

#254 Stan on 07.10.16 at 10:52 am

Is this 19 days of data representative of what has been happening for the last 9 years bringing the prices to where they are now, at or near the peak?
Nevermind, it fits Garth’s viewpoint so he thinks it must be right.
What is more important than citizenship is that this bubble is caused by hot money coming from China. Just because someone is a Canadian does not mean that they do not have hot money to move out of China. Plus there are many other means of moving that money into the market here.

A nation of victims. Sad. — Garth