The big meme

PUPPY modified

“Can you be on the show?” the CBC babe cooed. “The question would be along the lines of, ‘Have you given up on the idea of home ownership?’ The hope is to hear from people who have come to accept the idea of being a lifelong renter, as well as from those for whom home ownership is still a goal in spite of the challenge of getting into the market.”

Of course, I said, in the full knowledge that the leftists, vegetarians, Bernie Sanders supporters, social housing advocates, bleeding hearts and moist social media coordinators who listen to CBC Radio would be waiting to pounce. After all, I’m a fossil, believing a house is not a right. Shelter, maybe. Granite & stainless? Not a chance. In fact far too many people in this country already own houses, with way too much of their net worth concentrated there. No diversification. No Plan B. A one-asset strategy which now chances ending in tears.

Of course, it’s an opinion few share, especially the celery-munchers who love public radio and think society should treat everyone with respect, with government financing. But the reality is, cheap money, too many hormones, financial illiteracy and a tulip-mania obsession with real estate is creating dramatic levels of risk and debt. When things start to wobble and fall, even the CBC’s hero – weed-spreading, tat-wearing, overspending, Vogue-posing T2 – won’t be able to put it together again. So, the kids should know. They could be pooched.

That brings us to the Kingdom of 416, where the local realtor-dieties have just delivered their monthly stats. The contrast with Delusia, the west-coast metropolis featured on this pathetic blog yesterday, is quite marked. For starters, listings in YVR have started to inch higher while overall sales take a battering. Meanwhile average and median prices have been bloating, even as the volume of deals thins. Not good. Especially when you look at trades of detached homes (declining fast) compared with condos and semis (robust). It tells you a simple story – experienced players are throttling back.

As unaffordable as it’s becoming (RBC says over 70% of gross income is needed to carry a GTA house) the Toronto market is considerably more stable than that of the Lower Mainland. June sales were down marginally from the month before, but new listings fell 4% while total active listings have plunged from almost 18,000 a year ago to just over 12,000 now – a plop of more than 31%. That means if current sales levels hold, there’s but a 28-day supply of available properties.

This helps explain prices. The average selling mark for all homes increased year/year by just under 17% to $746,546. In the city itself (416) a detached house now averages $1.259 million, a number which is 19.6% higher than last June. But what’s interesting is how price creep is hitting the burbs. Year/year gains were 16% in Halton and Mississauga, 20% in York and Durham and even 19% in Orangeville where everyone drives a dually F150 and says ‘dang’ a lot.

So why have listings plunged? Mostly it’s about perception. While in YVR there’s a surreal aspect to real estate which is starting to repel buyers, in the GTA people are afraid to list because tight supplies and steady demand mean they’d have to join a bidding war. And who the hell wants that? After all, this is a region of six million people, with a relatively tiny number of properties on the market. Even the real estate cartel’s new boss admits buyers are facing headwinds and existing homeowners are scared witless at the thought of trying to find a replacement home.

And let’s not forget the media’s role. Below was the headline in the Toronto Star Wednesday, clearly telegraphing that local real estate jumped in price last month by 16.8%. It didn’t. The real monthly increase was… hey, wait a minute… the benchmark price in June actually declined from May. By $5,362. And guess where it says that? (Nowhere.)

Conclusion: Van’s getting closer to implosion. Toronto, not so much. And you shouldn’t buy in either.

TORONTO REPORT

211 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 07.06.16 at 6:08 pm

The anticipation is exciting Garth

#2 Jimmy on 07.06.16 at 6:12 pm

Are y’all ready for the Calgary Stampede?
First!

#3 Say What? on 07.06.16 at 6:24 pm

Folks should not have sat on the sidelines waiting to buy for the last few years. Many listened to the warnings that RE was priced to high and lost out. As it turns out, those warnings were very premature. Who’s to say that RE won’t go even higher? Much higher.

#4 Lee on 07.06.16 at 6:24 pm

I think the Star meant to say that the average sfh in Toronto is up 17%, not all houses. That’s all anyone cares about anyway. Just journalistic sloppiness.

#5 Jimbo on 07.06.16 at 6:29 pm

At least cauliflower is affordable again. Picked some up for $3.99.

#6 Say What? on 07.06.16 at 6:30 pm

“But the reality is, cheap money, too many hormones, financial illiteracy and a tulip-mania obsession with real estate is creating dramatic levels of risk and debt.” – Garth

———————————————————

Don’t forget massive immigration to Vancouver and Toronto, CMHC loan guarantees and laundered offshore money. All of these things will continue which will continue to prop up prices.

#7 garthisnotgod on 07.06.16 at 6:30 pm

Gart,
I have been reading your site for almost six to seven years, What i can deduce is that you humiliate any one talks about gold because it goes against your sources. Yeah your sources are Ottowa ( well some proprietary information gift ) Do you really make same comments to your partners when they disagree with your sources view ? yeah your sources makes decisions but they do have limitations don’t you think so ? You know i can to know that you belong to the financial selling stuff ( turner investments ) only about a month ago , if i had know i would have never come to this site. You are just making calls on RE based on your proprietary ottawa information and the same thing is not working with stocks and your advice on stocks are not same as RE. I am 100000000% sure you will not publish my comment but at least i made my point

You bullion-humpers are a strange breed. — Garth

#8 Johnny D on 07.06.16 at 6:32 pm

Garth,

What of REITs lately? They are sure climbing fast. Time to take some profits you figure?

#9 Bob on 07.06.16 at 6:33 pm

For six years I have believed that the housing/real estate mania(hysteria?) in the GTA was fleeting and temporary and that cooler heads would eventually prevail in the market. For six years I held firm to that belief.

Not so sure anymore…I tend to believe this is the new normal for our society. When I see hellholes going for ridiculous sums of money I just can’t seem to reconcile how this will end badly as that day of reckoning seems to be pushed farther and farther out onto the horizon for so many property virgins.

#10 MSM-Free Zone on 07.06.16 at 6:40 pm

“….leftists, vegetarians, Bernie Sanders supporters, social housing advocates, bleeding hearts and moist social media coordinators who listen to CBC Radio….”
______________________

Then again, it beats listening to all the freedum-luvin, gun-totin’, god-fearin’, pickup-drivin’ illiterates who are all too proud and ignorant to realize they’ve been played like banjos over the last three decades by their own right-wing, government-hatin’, de-regulatin’, globalizin’, outsourcing, off-shoring, tea-party wannabe, talk-show nutjobs on the Chorus Radio network.

#11 Waiting for cookies. on 07.06.16 at 6:43 pm

Thanks for the reality check Garth.

At least inflation isn’t eating away at my down payment. Up 60%YTD in juniors. And rent is very reasonable for what we have.

Patiently waiting for panic.

#12 common sense on 07.06.16 at 6:43 pm

And this is why we respect you Mr. T.

You tell this rare thing called the truth.

As Bruce Cockburn sang ” Some people can’t see the light til it shines through bullet holes…”

I never knew CBC listeners are celery eaters…

#13 Felix on 07.06.16 at 6:46 pm

Awww, what a cute pic :)

Three dumbbells.

Meow.

#14 Vundo on 07.06.16 at 6:47 pm

Which show? CBC radio or TV? I would be interested in watching/listening.

#15 Frank on 07.06.16 at 6:47 pm

I’ve been waiting for the Vancouver implosion since I moved here in 2009.

#16 garthisnotgod on 07.06.16 at 7:01 pm

OK OK, i know you would not publish my previous post because it exposes your sources but can you at at least publish this ? could you give me an example when you have called to get out of stocks or bonds ? if you hide behind complete aged based, % based portfolio allocation then please just shut this site and this site should only have the allocation ratio, Just my humble opinion

Actually I did publish your incoherent comment. — Garth

#17 inflate - inflate on 07.06.16 at 7:03 pm

#8 Bob

For six years I have believed that the housing/real estate mania(hysteria?) in the GTA was fleeting and temporary and that cooler heads would eventually prevail in the market. For six years I held firm to that belief.
Not so sure anymore…I tend to believe this is the new normal for our society. When I see hellholes going for ridiculous sums of money I just can’t seem to reconcile how this will end badly as that day of reckoning seems to be pushed farther and farther out onto the horizon for so many property virgins.

Yup, Bob you sized it quite eloquently…. Been dipping into this blog for just about as long as the 6 years mentioned…. Thing is the whole world wants a bit of Canada lately and Toronto or Vancouver are our international cities belonging to the world now where up until recently only belonged to the Canadian locals. Just like big cities in the States or Europe so too are our two Canadian cities. Next big thing happening to these cities is federal investments building a bigger and stronger infrastructure which will bring still more value to home owners in these areas. Of course taxes will come too but where else can you get tax free growth such as we’re seeing on leveraged deposits…. Please tell me where,,, if you can????

#18 Brazil ex-pat on 07.06.16 at 7:03 pm

Hilary not being charged by the FBI just got Trump many millions more votes. Meanwhile in Baton Rouge the police keep shooting black people…….

Trump 2016

#19 JG on 07.06.16 at 7:04 pm

got VIP tickets for Ice Cube at Stampede. NWA!!! LOL

Living in the past as the present is far too creepy

JG

#20 Cottingham a bargain on 07.06.16 at 7:04 pm

Pretty sure that property you featured in one of your blogs Garth, which I use as my handle, on Cottingham, which you basically said sold for an absurd price would go for much higher today.

Just saying.

#21 Brian Ripley on 07.06.16 at 7:04 pm

We all know that Vancouver housing prices are crazy… this is the 3rd month in a row where all sectors created new peak prices:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

But Toronto has registered a new benchmark in folly… residential sales exceeded total listings available for a monthly absorption rate of 104%!
http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

Nothing left on the table…

MANIA UNLEASHED

#22 bubu on 07.06.16 at 7:06 pm

Buy in Calgary and Edmonton… in 2-3 years prices will be like in Toronto….

#23 Gigi Fitzsimmons on 07.06.16 at 7:09 pm

Wall Street has an article of 1% 10 year Treasuries coming up.

What do you think of that Garth! It seems that the bond market is in a real bubble like real estate is.

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.16 at 7:12 pm

@#5 Jimbo
Cauliflower gives me gas…..but then again a glass of water gives me gas…….where’s Devil’s Advocate and an elevator when you need one.

#25 46 and 2 on 07.06.16 at 7:14 pm

#6 Say What

“Don’t forget massive immigration to Vancouver and Toronto, CMHC loan guarantees and laundered offshore money. All of these things will continue which will continue to prop up prices”.

Exactly….as I have stated numerous times, forget about “fundamentals”, forget about “conventional lending”, forget about “affordability” in Van and TO.

Immigration and the money behind it, clean or not will continue to drive RE prices in Canada and Canada will do nothing about it because without the fresh dough we are f***ed.

The world is shopping in Canada and we allowed it to happen.

#26 garthisnotgod on 07.06.16 at 7:18 pm

I solute you and you are transparent !!!! I Never thought you would do that

#27 jess on 07.06.16 at 7:18 pm

Wolf Richter: The Big Unravel – US Commercial Bankruptcies Skyrocket – 07/06/2016 – Yves Smith
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/07/wolf-richter-the-big-unravel-us-commercial-bankruptcies-skyrocket.html

====

On June 14, North Dakotans voted to overrule their government’s decision to allow corporate ownership of farms.
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/sanders-supporters-check-out-amazing-piece-american-history-path-you-might-take

#28 Nelley on 07.06.16 at 7:26 pm

DELETED

#29 Randy beats Jimmy on 07.06.16 at 7:26 pm

#1 Randy on 07.06.16 at 6:08 pm
The anticipation is exciting Garth

#2 Jimmy on 07.06.16 at 6:12 pm
Are y’all ready for the Calgary Stampede?
First!
———————-
Wow! Does Randy always beat you, Jimmy? Give up.

#30 Gigi Fitzsimmons on 07.06.16 at 7:28 pm

I meant Wall Street Journal, 1% 10 year treasuries coming.

The tide will turn one of these days and I don’t want to be part of the bond market carnage of 40%, 50%, 60% losses on bond funds, bond ETF’s and individual owned bonds.

#31 Bob on 07.06.16 at 7:28 pm

Remember this place from a post a few weeks ago… no surprise, there has been a price reduction

http://www.thecolourofrealestate.com/property_details-3-101021.html

Not really a meaningful price reduction, but at least moving the right direction. I have seen and heard of a few single family homes in Vancouver where the showings have been lack luster and what does the real estate agent do… INCREASE the price…

#32 bigrider on 07.06.16 at 7:34 pm

You know, I asked my Zio today why he thinks that house and land prices will keep rising in the GTA (Uppa). I also asked him what he thinks of the financial markets and Garths advice. His answer quote:

” Da land and a da house, shesa a real. I cana see it. I cana touch it and if she go downa in a price I nocare because at a least I hava a someting. I can grow a tomato lika da guy beside a da house she blow uppa in a Mississauga. He no care about da house but he care about da tomato plant. No need to tell you he Italiano. You see, plant is a real . You can eat ,you can use.
Now about da stock markato. I no see anyting real only paper, I no understand , no lika da news ,I no trust and I tinks Garth to very smart to understand that many people simple people like me tinks lika I do ” unquote.

Not sure how I should have answered him.

#33 Victoria Real Estate Update on 07.06.16 at 7:36 pm

# 15 Frank

The longer housing bubbles are maintained, the more spectacular their implosion. Wolf Richter wrote about that.

Has any housing bubble been maintained longer than Canada’s? I think it’s unlikely.

Has there been a bigger housing bubble than Vancouver’s? Unlikely.

Your realtor argument – that if a major price correction hasn’t happened yet, it won’t – has been posted on this blog a thousand times. Unfortunately for Canadian mortgage holders, there is no truth in that statement at all. It is simply BS used by realtors to help convince uninformed buyers to take on huge mortgages at bubble prices.

#34 Jon Albert on 07.06.16 at 7:38 pm

Only liberals, NDP ‘ers and green party voters consume and support the left-wing CBC.

#35 The Spectre on 07.06.16 at 7:38 pm

Garth,
Now that Keyney is back to Alberta and will free us from the catastrophic communists, he may be looking for a FM in the next federal election.

We might give you a chance, even being an easterner since you mentioned you’re a cowboy a couple of times.

#36 RentYVR on 07.06.16 at 7:42 pm

I want this thing to burst but I don’t see it coming soon. Sure, sales can slow and prices stagnate but RE is too ingrained in the national psych. Many Canadians are scared of the capital markets and think that RE is the only “safe” asset there is. Crazy, but that’s what 20 years of low interest rates and steadily rising RE prices will do I guess.

#37 Doug t on 07.06.16 at 7:45 pm

I look forward to the hindsight comments from our “leaders” once the correction gives Canadians a concussion – if you haven’t been paying attention to Europe, China and Amerika for the last few years and started to take steps to protect your finances you better get on it. Investing in this climate is for fools.

#38 young & foolish on 07.06.16 at 7:46 pm

Just wondering about the shortage of GTA listings ….. why should people sell if they are not moving far away anyway?
Moving is soooo expensive!

#39 BOOM! on 07.06.16 at 7:49 pm

Today marks 42 years of wedded bliss to a fantastic, wonderful, decidedly unique woman!

How she ever put up with my bullshit for 42 years is awe inspiring, yet deeply appreciated!!

Don’t have any ‘secrets’ to this, just grateful that we did it, through the good, not so good, and now in retirement we are pretty well set.

If we had to do it over, I would want to do it all with that same perfect choice! Happy Anniversary my dear!

#40 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.16 at 7:50 pm

Immigration to Canada has remained static at 0.8% of the population for many years. Without it, we’d be poorer. — Garth
——-
Links, stats please. About how we are richer.

#41 For those about to flop... on 07.06.16 at 7:52 pm

Well ,we have our first finalist with Portugal beating Wales 2-0
Tomorrow France / Garth vs Germany / Common Sense to see who they play on Sunday.

Below is a map of Europe with percentage growth in real per capita GDP from 1995 to 2014…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/iipBNul

#42 Yankee Canuck on 07.06.16 at 7:56 pm

Hey Gart,

How about some more proprietary info from Hulifax or Ragina? Maybe there are and hidden gems in Edmanton?

Maybe i should look for gold in Wannipeg?

—-

I don’t know how you put up with it. Pls keep publishing. You are spot on.

#43 young & foolish on 07.06.16 at 8:00 pm

“Then again, it beats listening to all the freedum-luvin, gun-totin’, god-fearin’, pickup-drivin’ illiterates who are all too proud and ignorant to realize they’ve been played like banjos over the last three decades by their own right-wing, government-hatin’, de-regulatin’, globalizin’, outsourcing, off-shoring, tea-party wannabe, talk-show nutjobs on the Chorus Radio network.”

Well put … had to laugh at this one! But hey, don’t feel bad, our society “betters” play to both sides of the fence. There is no turning back the clock on globalization.

#44 Ace Goodheart on 07.06.16 at 8:12 pm

RE: “Especially when you look at trades of detached homes (declining fast) compared with condos and semis (robust). It tells you a simple story – experienced players are throttling back.”

Maybe. Or maybe it tells you that no one can afford a three bedroom bungalow in need of major renovations, priced at $3 million Canadian dollars.

Vancouver’s housing market looks like a bomb ready to explode. I don’t live there, so I can’t tell whether or not any of these shanty town-looking, vinyl covered, rotting shacks are actually worth their multi million dollar price tags. I wouldn’t use most of them for a dog house. But maybe Vancouverites are different? I don’t know.

RE: “RBC says over 70% of gross income is needed to carry a GTA house”

IF you purchase said house with 20% down. That is a big IF. People should not be doing that. RBC is looking at the situation through the rose coloured glasses of a large bank. They figure everyone needs to mortgage 80% of the value of their house. This is not necessarily true.

#45 Balmuto on 07.06.16 at 8:13 pm

#23 Gigi Fitzsimmons

“It seems that the bond market is in a real bubble like real estate is.”

That’s not just a coincidence.

#46 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 07.06.16 at 8:21 pm

#194 Crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.16 at 5:39 pm
@#176 Devils Headache
“There is no Multiple Listing Service. What there is is a Multiple Listing System….”
******************************************
Wow! That’s splitting hairs.
What else can you Realtors do?
Talk from both sides of your mouth?
Amazing.

Yup right up there with and as incomprehensible to you as Collaboration vs. Collusion.

It (MLS®) is a “system” we use to “collaborate” to help one another achieve our individual clients hopes, dreams, wants and needs.

The real estate industry is under a lot of scrutiny right now and I wouldn’t be surprise if, much to your glee Mr. Fartz, it was diluted to the brink of extinction. If and when that happens I am quite sure the loss will be recognized for what it is. There are many countries in the world that envy the “system” we have. Once it’s gone it won’t return. I can appreciate you wouldn’t understand the magnatude of the loss now. Sadly the industry must take a great deal of the responsibility for perpetuating the publics misconceptions surrounding what we actually do.

I have other skills I can fall back on and am close enough to retirement that it really doesn’t matter that much to me anyway.

REALTORS® do provide a valuable service.

#47 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.16 at 8:22 pm

Ottawa market goes crazy in June, highest sales on record:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/record-breaking-number-of-ottawa-properties-sold-in-june

#48 MF on 07.06.16 at 8:24 pm

#4 Lee on 07.06.16 at 6:24 pm

Did you write the article?

MF

#49 JSS on 07.06.16 at 8:25 pm

Donald Trump symbolism seeps into Jason Kenney leadership launch

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/07/06/news/donald-trump-symbolism-seeps-jason-kenney-leadership-launch

Slash n’burn Ralph Klein style comin to Alberta!!!

#50 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.16 at 8:27 pm

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.16 at 7:50 pm
————————–
We are richer because our population base is growing. Money and therefore economic activity is being brought into the country. Increases to average age is buffered, keeping our population younger than it otherwise would be. A bigger tax base for supporting our social infrastructure. The ability to eat excellent ethnic foods. Teaching our children about diversity and acceptance of others.

There is quite a long list of why Canada’s immigration policy makes us richer.

#51 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 07.06.16 at 8:29 pm

Oh and on Anticombines and Real Estate in Canada…

I have a 2012 Jaguar XJ I would like to sell.

I’m thinking I should be able to put a sign in the window with my contact information on it and park it on the local dealers lot so that anyone considering the purchase of such a vehicle can call me and buy mine.

#52 MF on 07.06.16 at 8:31 pm

#38 BOOM! on 07.06.16 at 7:49 pm

Congrats BOOM! formerly known as RB.

#37 Doug t on 07.06.16 at 7:45 pm

Agreed. All manipulated to such an extent it cannot stand on its own without “stimulus”…of which they are all out of ammo (spent trillions papering over the 2008 crisis and solved zero).

MF

#53 Ace Goodheart on 07.06.16 at 8:33 pm

RE: #3 Say What?: “Who’s to say that RE won’t go even higher? Much higher.”

There is a problem with continuing to think this about Vancouver. Let me explain. A three bedroom, rotten, single storey “tear down” bungalow in Vancouver is now past the two million mark and rapidly approaching the three million mark (have a look on realtor.ca).

An average income earner can’t borrow 2 or 3 million dollars to buy these houses. They don’t have the money to pay cash. There is no way for the average working person to purchase a house like this.

Enter the “1%”. These folks CAN afford to either borrow money to pay for, or just plain pay cash for, a $3 million dollar tear down in Vancouver.

BUT these people would never live in such a house. I mean, these houses are awful. They rival the worst rooming houses in the worst neighbourhoods in Toronto. They are mould filled, rotten, decrepit dumps. None of the 1% would ever call any of them home.

So they are going to be torn down. But to build what? Again, pay $3 million for the land, spend another $3 million building a new house, and then what do you do with it? Sell it to a member of the 1% club, right?

That is all you can do. So you have created a real estate market, that is accessible to 1% of the population. The population of Vancouver is around 2.4 million people. 1% of that is 24,000 people. THAT IS YOUR MARKET! 24,000 individuals can afford the real estate you are creating.

It is not sustainable. No one can afford these houses. Or rather, 99% of the population cannot afford them. And the 1% that can afford them, doesn’t want to live in them.

It won’t end well……

#54 MF on 07.06.16 at 8:36 pm

#92 Smoking Man on 07.03.16 at 9:25 pm

Just saw that link now. Reminds me of the music my mom used to play on 1050 chum while driving the young MF around. Thanks for that.

Mf

#55 Irent on 07.06.16 at 8:37 pm

Hi Garth, please help understand. The cost of housing went up 30% in 2 years and a correction if happens will only bring down to what it was 2 years before, how is it better that someone did not buy then? Plus all they paid in the last two years?

Another math major among us. — Garth

#56 the Jaguar on 07.06.16 at 8:42 pm

Posted on yesterday due to late Garth posting today.
This is for Aggregator…

AGGREGATOR – hello. I await your posts.
Can you provide an opinion/update on where you think the residential market is going in Calgary? Appears to be a oversupply of condos coming on line like Brad Lamb’s buildings on 10th & 8th, etc. And why is that huge pit sitting un-attended at the south side of the Peace Bridge? Nothing happening there for a really long time. Helicopters landing at the pad though, and YUL might be correct about the three weekly flights from China and its implications. Seems like you are more on the commercial real estate side of things, but you opinion is always highly valued

#57 I'm Stupid. Also. on 07.06.16 at 8:43 pm

Garth, I realize you’ve been diversified and balanced for awhile, probably made wise stock purchases slowly over time (buy low, sell high is still a thing)…

But. If you only had a house (one asset), and you sold it TODAY, and pocketed $500K, would you put it under your pillow and wait? or put it in a Tangerine account at 2.4%, until all this global uncertainty wore off?

You wouldn’t be crazy enough to put in in today’s uncertain, peaked stock market, right? Even Indexed ETF’s are too high right now.

I’m sure you would at least wait for the US election to be over, or China or US or Canada to go into recession?

Folks, if you are waiting for the markets to come down, the Tangerine promo does looks tempting. It’s 2.4% for only 6 months, but a great guarantee that nothing bad will happen to your money.* That’s $1k per month on a $500K deposit.

https://www.tangerine.ca/en/saving/savings-accounts

* Unless the bank folds… CDIC only protects your deposits up to $100k… but when has a Canadian bank ever failed?

Sure. Make less than 1% above inflation and pay tax on 100% of the gain at your marginal rate so you can wait and buy investment assets when they cost more. Why didn’t I think of that? — Garth

#58 Freedom First on 07.06.16 at 8:45 pm

#38 Boom

Boom!, congrats! I’m glad for you. Well done.

Also, thanks for all your comments. Peace out.

#59 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 07.06.16 at 8:50 pm

You bullion-humpers are a strange breed. — Garth

The largest bullion humping licking holders are in order:

The FED, which makes perfect sense because they are idiots too (especially Greenspan, printer number one, who previous to his stint was a rock licker and following his stink has found religion again). Of course, not to be out-done are the Russians and Chinese Central Banks who are trying feverishly to catch up.

Following them are the Indian and Chinese dudes, but those people are from old codger nations and its probably just muscle memory after all these centuries of buying the yellow metal. We here in Canada know better since setting ourselves free 50 years ago.

#60 MF on 07.06.16 at 8:54 pm

#48 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.16 at 8:27 pm

As long as they assimilate and become proud Canadians. By far most of the immigrants are happy here and feel this way (from what I see). My girlfriend is a very recent immigrant.

However look at Europe. When you look at Europe you see it’s not as simple as
“more immigrants = better economy”. The EU is an economic disaster and now it’s also falling apart socially. This is even while the socialist state tries to take care of everyone and make them feel “welcome”.

MF

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.16 at 8:55 pm

Below is a map of Europe with percentage growth in real per capita GDP from 1995 to 2014…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/iipBNul
———————–
What are you trying to prove with this chart?
I thought Spain was moribund, but it’s GDP growth during those years is almost on par with Switzerland.
What gives?

#62 For those about to flop... on 07.06.16 at 8:58 pm

Boom! Congratulations on your anniversary.
There is a saying ….behind every good man is a good woman.

Must be why my wife is miles ahead of me…

M42BC

And behind every good man is an astonished mother-in-law. — Garth

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.16 at 9:01 pm

#48 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.16 at 8:27 pm
#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.16 at 7:50 pm
————————–
We are richer because our population base is growing. Money and therefore economic activity is being brought into the country. Increases to average age is buffered, keeping our population younger than it otherwise would be. A bigger tax base for supporting our social infrastructure. The ability to eat excellent ethnic foods. Teaching our children about diversity and acceptance of others.

There is quite a long list of why Canada’s immigration policy makes us richer.
————–
I was asking for some stats and not your personal opinion.
Stop watching Scota Bank commercials.

#64 Smoking Man on 07.06.16 at 9:07 pm

Only a matter of time before Poloz cuts rates. Sends the house horny into an orgy.

Without a 6o cent dollar. No one interested in our goods.

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/10836454

#65 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 07.06.16 at 9:08 pm

This helps explain prices. The average selling mark for all homes increased year/year by just under 17% to $746,546. In the city itself (416) a detached house now averages $1.259 million, a number which is 19.6% higher than last June

YYZ real estate been rising for years

the gig is up

#66 BK on 07.06.16 at 9:17 pm

Garth you silly man…

dually f150s????????

#67 Say What? on 07.06.16 at 9:17 pm

#51 Ace Goodheart on 07.06.16 at 8:33 pm

“It won’t end well……”

———————————————————-

I agree. Totally insane. No fundamentals to these prices. Your scenario regarding the 1% makes sense, but it also made sense years ago. Didn’t stop the escalation in prices. So, maybe it won’t end well and there will be a day of reckoning, but when is that? The people in power will do anything to keep this charade going.

#68 ww1 on 07.06.16 at 9:20 pm

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.16 at 9:01 pm

I was asking for some stats and not your personal opinion.
Stop watching Scotia Bank commercials.

================================

http://bfy.tw/6cpT (obligatory “LET ME GOOGLE THAT FOR YOU” link)

#69 Estrella on 07.06.16 at 9:27 pm

Professions in ontario customarily have a public member on the board. I wonder if that is not carried over in other provinces? This journalist makes it seem like all professionals are self regulated.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com//report-on-business/small-business/sb-managing/self-regulating-professions-must-regulate-in-the-public-interest-or-else/article30773761/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe

#70 For those about to flop... on 07.06.16 at 9:33 pm

#59 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.16 at 8:55 pm
Below is a map of Europe with percentage growth in real per capita GDP from 1995 to 2014…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/iipBNul
———————–
What are you trying to prove with this chart?
I thought Spain was moribund, but it’s GDP growth during those years is almost on par with Switzerland.
What gives?

///////////////////////////////
Not trying to prove anything.

I talk about sport and other stuff not in the topic of the day. To show my thanks I post a chart about Europe since Euro 2016 is still going on.

To your other point, if a country was under achieving it could change the numbers drastically.

Make of the chart what you will…

M42BC

#71 Godth on 07.06.16 at 9:49 pm

Who cares? Get a life a little. Welcome to money (debt) in modern hyper complexity. Infinite growth on a finite planet baby. Stop complaining and get with the program or continue to be a stale fart in the elevator.

Nobody cares. We all have gas masks.

#72 Impressed on 07.06.16 at 9:50 pm

Nice prose tonight Garth, too good for CBC!

#73 Godth on 07.06.16 at 9:54 pm

…bloody doomers. They’re just symbols – deal with it. A quadrillion…pffft, why not a quadrizillion? Whatever.

TruHill for president Sisyphus! Damn doomers. Bikini atoll or bust.

#74 Sam Miller on 07.06.16 at 10:06 pm

Hi Garth,
Personally, I have never heard “leftists, vegetarians, Bernie Sanders supporters, social housing advocates, bleeding hearts and moist social media coordinators who listen to CBC Radio” advocate that “owing” a house is a human right, particularly one with “granite and stainless”. What I hear is a call for affordable housing, period, be it rental or otherwise. Here on Salt Spring Island, on the West Coast, rentals are almost nonexistent and real-estate is pretty much out of range for first-time buyers. We have a housing crisis and unless the community steps in, likely with government help, it will only get worse. So instead of criticizing the advocacy of affordable housing projects by the “Left”, please address how as a society we can help alleviate homelessness in a runaway real-estate economy. Thanks.

So you listen to the CBC, then? — Garth

#75 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.16 at 10:09 pm

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.16 at 9:01 pm
———————————–
Ask any macroeconomist what a negative population growth rate (and ageing population ala Japan) does to your economy.

#76 WUL on 07.06.16 at 10:09 pm

BOOM!

I extend my congratulations on your 42nd anniversary. It appears that you both married well.

I value your presence here.

Before I composed this comment, I went online to see the conventional anniversary gifts and I learned some things. Of course they vary by country and culture. I did not know that traditionally the list starts jumping five year spans after the 15th and then you get into Rubies (40th) and Sappphires (45th) etc.

But you might have a bigger issue. Moving from traditional conventions to the modern, I see that the 42nd anniversary calls for “improved real estate”. I hope the new patio door suffices.

And, you can get a surprise for your wife on your 50th. The White House will send congrats. Send your request early so that it is on time.

With two terms for Trump, it will be a keepsake for the ages.

WUL

#77 Lorne on 07.06.16 at 10:12 pm

#49 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate
Oh and on Anticombines and Real Estate in Canada…

I have a 2012 Jaguar XJ I would like to sell.

I’m thinking I should be able to put a sign in the window with my contact information on it and park it on the local dealers lot so that anyone considering the purchase of such a vehicle can call me and buy mine.
………..
Interestingly enough, you will not need to “hire” a “good” car salesman to sell that Jag for you. You are able to use a number of good websites and not pay commission to any salesperson to sell your second hand vehicle. In fact, most cars are sold this way…..why do we need someone to assist us to sell a home……when a notary/lawyer does all the important stuff?

#78 Kamilapea on 07.06.16 at 10:13 pm

C’mon Garth! Everyone knows shorting is the only thing the Toronto Star is good for.

#79 For those about to flop... on 07.06.16 at 10:17 pm

This is Mark playing darts hitting the bullseye on the sales mix.

All lumber and supplies donated by Ross Kay….

https://m.imgur.com/gallery/YYettH8

#80 Steph on 07.06.16 at 10:20 pm

Horny dudes probably read that news with delight. They will be like dears caught by headlights.

Sad but entertaining.

I read you everyday. Mostly silent. Really like what you do.

Cheers!

#81 Irent on 07.06.16 at 10:33 pm

Hi Garth, please help understand. The cost of housing went up 30% in 2 years and a correction if happens will only bring down to what it was 2 years before, how is it better that someone did not buy then? Plus all they paid in the last two years?

Another math major among us. — Garth

—————————————————————————-

Thanks for your response. I meant more from point of view of people not buying a house and waiting for correction. The best case for those waiting is the correction happens and the price goes down to what it was 2 years ago. But the same people did not buy then as there were economist saying the market is 35-40% overpriced and in correction territory.

#82 Cici on 07.06.16 at 10:36 pm

Congrats Boom! Keep holding on to one another ;-)

#83 Shilly Shally on 07.06.16 at 10:42 pm

Wrong wrong wrong and wrong again. With rates at historic lows and heading lower, with public service parabolic hire numbers, with government ‘baby bonus cheques’ spewing out additional mortgage qualifications at $550 a crack to every moister, this monster has lots of wind in it’s sails to ratchet even higher based on thousands of new public servants ( 65000 last month alone) and depending on the number of children you have ( lets say two or three) you’ll have an extra thousand to two thousand to throw at a mortgage ( after all the money won’t go to bottles and wipes we all know that) and the multiplier effect on a 25 year am is an extra 3 to 4 hundred thousand.

And now, the Trudeau Liberals will throw billions of ‘social stimulus’ infrastructure money at the already monied civil service in added salary bumps and voila, another reason for RE to pump itself up even more.

I say RE will have doubled in the next two years, prove me wrong. The problem is that it will all have been bought by the wrong people. Civil servants will no longer retire as they will have ‘moved up’ into larger castles and that will cause the millennial unemployed new grads to borrow more as they have lesser incomes while the established 1% unionista’s are double dipping.

You are a paid Con troll posting here several times a week under various names, always with the same unsubstantiated hyperbole. Cops, teachers, nurses, firefighters, paramedics, doctors and coast guard workers are not the enemy. Go and harass CBC.ca. — Garth

#84 J.L.Livermore on 07.06.16 at 10:44 pm

For ‘locals’, Toronto houses may appear to be expensive. But relative to many other cities its actually quite inexpensive. What the owner of this blog ignores is the many external forces that drive real estate prices. Especially a city like Toronto that attracts money from all over the world…not everyone is paid in Canadian ‘pesos’ and pays the local taxes! And please don’t forget about inflation which is real and rampant and misreported by your beloved government. Perhaps a little “bullion humping” (or a lot) wouldn’t be such a bad idea…

#85 HELLO on 07.06.16 at 10:46 pm

Hey Garth, how come you never mention the billions and billions of drug money being washed in vancouver’s real estate market.
Are you afraid of offending any ethnic groups there.

Like you mental pygmies? No. — Garth

#86 LP on 07.06.16 at 10:56 pm

#38 BOOM! on 07.06.16 at 7:49 pm
Today marks 42 years of wedded bliss to a fantastic, wonderful, decidedly unique woman!…
…If we had to do it over, I would want to do it all with that same perfect choice! Happy Anniversary my dear!
********************

Add my congratulations to that of the others. I suspect that you each deserve each other – and that’s a compliment by the way.

As to the secret of a successful marriage, after 45 years marked this past June 5th, I think it’s the fact that we each still think we “married up”. I know for sure that I did!

#87 Tony on 07.06.16 at 11:02 pm

Re: #16 garthisnotgod on 07.06.16 at 7:01 pm

Be out by at the open October 03, 2016. I’ll be long term short Teck Corporation that day. Will buy back the shares at 5 bucks and chances are good it will be in January 2017.

#88 tremblant110 on 07.06.16 at 11:03 pm

This house in Vancouver now for sale for $2.488 million sold for $1.1 million about two years ago. How far can it go ?
http://www.remax.ca/bc/north-vancouver-real-estate/na-5532-woodchuck-place-na-wp_id143985240-lst/

#89 Ace Goodheart on 07.06.16 at 11:16 pm

Re: #65 Say What?

“I agree. Totally insane. No fundamentals to these prices. Your scenario regarding the 1% makes sense, but it also made sense years ago. Didn’t stop the escalation in prices. So, maybe it won’t end well and there will be a day of reckoning, but when is that? The people in power will do anything to keep this charade going.”

This is true. What keeps the whole thing going right now is that someone continues to buy these Vancouver houses.

My big concern with the situation goes back to one of the fundamental principles of business, ie, if you are selling something, it has to be affordable to the middle class. That is fundamental. You see so many businesses mess this up and end up in receivership. Can’t count how many restaurants I have seen, produce very good food, at prices everyone can afford, win a few awards, go “high end” and they’re bankrupt in a year.

If you are selling a product, basically any product, and the middle class cannot afford it, then you will have a cash flow problem. Happens every time. There just aren’t enough rich people.

That is my worry with Vancouver real estate. The idea was, houses are scarce, there are a lot of people looking, so bid up the prices. They did that, to the point that the middle class could JUST afford these houses, taking out huge loans, cashing in their investments and working very long hours.

Vancouver housing has now moved past that point. It is at the point where the middle class CANNOT afford it, at all, full stop.

That is usually the point at which the business, which now is affordable to only 1% of the population, fails.

#90 Ruane on 07.06.16 at 11:17 pm

@#78 Irent
Irent, he means the math is wrong…if prices went up 30% over two years and then dropped 30%, they wouldn’t end up in the same place they were two years ago, they’d be lower.

Like this:
Say you have a house that was worth $100K two years ago. Its price increases 30% and today it’s worth $130K. Next year it drops 30%. But 30% of $130,000 isn’t $30,000, it’s $39,000!
($130,000/100*30 = $39,000)

So next year’s price for our hypothetical house, after a 30% drop would be:
$130,000-$39,000 = $91,000.
$9K less than two years ago.

#91 Ruane on 07.06.16 at 11:21 pm

Also…congrats, Boom!

#92 boonerator on 07.06.16 at 11:30 pm

Home inspectors are sitting on their hands in Vancouver.
So much hysteria, this raises risk to new levels. Destroy your financial health and then have to destroy the house you just wrecked your finances for.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/home-inspections-drop-drastically-in-no-subjects-market-leaving-buyers-with-horror-stories

#93 WUL on 07.06.16 at 11:34 pm

Garth’s tolerance for dawgs is remarkable.

Hey, Canadian taxpayers, you are paying Jason Kenney’s salary while he campaigns for the leadership of the Progressive Conservatives of Alberta. For the very first time in my life, I agree with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

I know how to make up what it will cost me pe rsonally however. Tomorrow I am having 10,000 caps made up reading:

“Make Alberta Antedeluvian Again””

#94 ryan on 07.06.16 at 11:36 pm

Hi Garth, please help understand. The cost of housing went up 30% in 2 years and a correction if happens will only bring down to what it was 2 years before, how is it better that someone did not buy then? Plus all they paid in the last two years?

Another math major among us. — Garth

**********************

Garth, I am a fan of your site, but the above logic seems valid to me. Can you explain? Thank you

#95 Bucky on 07.06.16 at 11:36 pm

#22 bubu on 07.06.16 at 7:06 pm
Buy in Calgary and Edmonton… in 2-3 years prices will be like in Toronto….

I don’t know about Calgary and Edmonton being “like Toronto”, but buying there seems a lot more likely to have an up side, or at least less risk of having a steep fall. Sentiment on the street is the age of oil is over, until it isn’t. Can you be cash flow positive owning a rental property there?

#96 CREIT on 07.06.16 at 11:46 pm

I wont disclose who I work for but I have more access to property information than anyone else in the province (I live in Toronto). I had a meeting today with a staff member from the city of Toronto and he told me he’s been seeing an overwhelming amount of properties with second and third mortgages. Even properties that sold in the 2-5 million price range. He’s been working for the city for 25 years and said he’s never seen anything like it. I thought that was interesting…

#97 The Wet Coast on 07.06.16 at 11:55 pm

I went to an open house in Coquitlam last weekend. The realtor was playing piano; and other than the realtor, myself and my wife there was nobody else, not at all like 2 months ago where I’d have 50 of my closest friends there. He said its now a buy..er…more balanced market. The house is still for sale. Hmmm…

#98 Polozi Scheme on 07.06.16 at 11:56 pm

http://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2016/07/06/economist-jeffrey-sachs-on-globalizations-risks

#99 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.06.16 at 11:57 pm

Starting to hear more and more words on MSM like:
Bubble Bursting
Overvalued
Controlling Foreign ownership.

Even words like in tonight’s CTV newscast.
The words:
Prices lowered.
Not selling.

I know if this keep up for 3 to 6 months there will be a correction.

If hammered home enough times the MSM can still make minds change.

#100 SquareNinja on 07.07.16 at 12:04 am

I’m a banker in St. Catharines, ON, and the real estate market here is apparently going wild! The word on the street is that there are eight buyers for every house for sale and that you need to put in offers with $20 – 30K over asking otherwise you don’t have a shot at the house.

And all this because the city is getting regular GO Train service in 2017. The Toronto people are coming!!!

#101 SquareNinja on 07.07.16 at 12:09 am

#90 ryan on 07.06.16 at 11:36 pm

If your property starts off at $100,000 and goes up 30%, that’s now $130,000. But what percentage does it have to come down to get back to the starting price? Only 23%!

$130,000 x 0.77 = $100,100

#102 jay on 07.07.16 at 12:12 am

https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5612720528.html Who’s ready to move to the B.P.O.E.

#103 Taxpayer & Consumer on 07.07.16 at 12:24 am

Taxpayer at Canada Revenue Agency

Well Duh.

I can’t wait for the provincial government to issue their report on foreign ownership. Since you can basically get Canadian citizenship out of a vending machine in China now. We will get a report saying there is no issue.

I have a new neighbour. They moved in last week. 80 year old+ people from China who do not speak a word of English. I am now a minority on my street. But foreign buying is not an issue.

Between our corrupt provincial government and useless federal government. We are doomed here in Hongcouver, Chinada.

That was ugly. — Garth

#104 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.07.16 at 12:28 am

#82 HELLO on 07.06.16 at 10:46 pm
Hey Garth, how come you never mention the billions and billions of drug money being washed in vancouver’s real estate market.
Are you afraid of offending any ethnic groups there.

Like you mental pygmies? No. — Garth
—————————————————————-

Hello… Your comment is tactful and undeniable.

We need to be able to say what we feel without fear of repercussion.
Too many people are losing their jobs because of what they post on Facebook on their own time.

My wife is Oriental and my 7 children are mixed Caucasian / Oriental.

Some of my kids look a little more Oriental and some look quite Caucasian. But we all have had moments whereby we feel we are in a different country in our West Coast City.
Sometimes it is uncomfortable. Even though I personally have spent 12 years in the Orient and understand the local cultures quite well. I also loved my time overseas.

I believe we have failed in our immigration policy whereby we have created and allowed “Ghettos” to form. Not Slum Ghettos but ghettos of sometimes wealthy people of the same foreign nationality origins.
We could have seen much better assimilation if we attached a caveat to many forms of immigration procedures in that one may have to settle for 5 to 10 years in a certain area of the country.
I think we could benefit having a few more immigrants in Saskatoon and less in Vancouver.
Immigrants do bring special skills and flavors to our country but it is too concentrated in a few areas.

Think Mollenbeek in Belgium as to a potential example of failed immigration assimilation policy.

Think mass real estate cultural thinking on the part of Mainland Chinese for Ghost cities in China and Dark windows in Coal Harbor.

I have 2 Adult Children who earn over 6 figures and will not buy a Condo because the numbers do not add up.

Lets see who hates me for these comments?

#105 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.16 at 12:31 am

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.16 at 9:01 pm
———————————–
Ask any macroeconomist what a negative population growth rate (and ageing population ala Japan) does to your economy.
————–
last time I looked, Japan still has Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda.
What does Canada have?
Timmies. And all the immigrants want to work there.

#106 RW_Z on 07.07.16 at 12:35 am

“Another math major among us. — Garth”

Yes, a % down is not the same thing as a % up, but claim is that the gains of the last few years still add up to more % down than anyone has ever been predicting on this blog or elsewhere. I make this comment every few months, but, while it might not make sense to buy now, I’m increasingly getting the feeling that the nadir of the correction will take us back to the prices at a point in time somewhere in the middle of the blog’s history.

#107 Vanreal on 07.07.16 at 12:58 am

Never Give Up. You are correct. The only weapon against these price increases the government has left is trying to convince everyone that’s there’s no legs left in the price growth. That and on,y that will end this.

#108 ROTFL on 07.07.16 at 1:00 am

Here’s an interesting factoid/conicidence. At the peak of the US housing market. real estate commissions were running at about 1% of GDP. Using CREA’s May numbers (average price $510,000 and annualized sales rate of about 550,000 properties) and assuming a perhaps generous 5% commission, that works out to almost exactly 1% of Canada’s 2013 GDP (I’m lazy, didn’t check for anything more recent).

If you think it’s crazy that real estate agents are consuming something near 1% of our national output, just keep repeating your mantra: “It’s different here.” Ommmmmmm

#109 mouldy in YVR on 07.07.16 at 1:00 am

…renting in one of YVRs ‘best downtown high rises’ ………over heard a very upset worker (plumber/electrician or?) complaining to his bud over coffee about how he’d been accused of sabotaging material he was working on in one of our local highrises in order to get future work…
He was beside himself…and understandably so….
..these 20 + year old YVR high rises are crumbling from the inside out (no sabotage required).
At some point the music will stop and we will have a déjà vu moment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_condo_crisis

“In total, approximately 45% of the 159,979 condominium strata units and 57% of the 700 school buildings constructed in B.C. between 1985 and 2000 were found to have envelope leak problems…..
In 2008 it was estimated the cost to repair the damage to schools alone would be nearly $400 million.”

The following – written in 2011 by a real estate agent!

http://www.vancourier.com/living/travel/condo-nightmare-buyer-beware-of-leaky-rotten-condos-1.378410

‘In order to protect yourself and your investment, conventional wisdom recommends that before you buy a condo, you read the Form B Information Certificate, the Sellers Property Disclosure Statement and the last two years of minutes from Strata Council Meetings and AGMs. While that’s good advice, there’s no guarantee that potential problems will be evident in any of these documents.
In my experience, some strata councils are reluctant to put anything on the record that could potentially have an impact on the current valuation of the property. While this is short-sighted management, it’s becoming the norm in a lot of developments where everyone has a vested interest in keeping property values as high as possible.”

…and now I understand many buyers in YVR aren’t even bothering to have a home inspection…….

#110 Shilly Shally on 07.07.16 at 1:17 am

Spanky spanky….ouch :(

“You are a paid Con troll posting here several times a week under various names, always with the same unsubstantiated hyperbole. Cops, teachers, nurses, firefighters, paramedics, doctors and coast guard workers are not the enemy. Go and harass CBC.ca. — Garth

But actually…in fact…

1) the latest public service hire numbers outweigh private sector hires by thousands to one in the last employment announcement. The Trudeau Liberals are assuaging large special interest groups with the public purse.

2) double dipping is common among the civil service of all stripes, including and especially teachers, firemen,policemen, coast guard…and all the ones you mentioned but not limited to….and this keeps a million millennials chronically unemployed.

3) although I don’t get paid to troll for the Cons….I did once write strategy for a prominent Liberal.

So no…I’m not a troll or the devils advocate…just a Canadian taxpayer who see’s the waste and pandering as a drag on my children’s future. And….if you would allow rational commentary as opposed to filtering everything through your narrow political lense you might have the honour of my name to grace this loathsome blog.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.16 at 1:39 am

@#40 Devils Admiration
“Sadly the industry must take a great deal of the responsibility for perpetuating the publics misconceptions surrounding what we actually do.”
********************************************

I dont think the public has “misconceptions” about a greedy manipulative monoploy that has had its way for far far far too long……

@#49 Devils Acid reflux
“I have a 2012 Jaguar XJ I would like to sell.

I’m thinking I should be able to put a sign in the window with my contact information on it and park it on the local dealers lot so that anyone considering the purchase of such a vehicle can call me and buy mine.
*******************************************

No no.
You have it wrong. A proper comparison to what YOU do as a Realtor would be to park your car in YOUR driveway and then sign a sales listing agreement with a car salesman.
That car saleman would then come over and take pictures of it and put up a price on the internet.

Potential buyers would not be allowed to know its history, its mileage, what you paid for it when you originally purchased it, how many times it had been sold, if it had been used illegally, . Basically they would have to trust the commission based saleman to tell them what they were buying was a great deal…..

THAT is the general “misconception” the home buying public has of how a Realtor does business.
At least a used car saleman realizes what he really is.
A commission earning shill who would sell his dying , penniless Grandma a 5 year lease on a Hummer she didnt need and couldnt afford….

Sleep well my self delusional mortgage vampire…..its all coming to an end.

#112 2 to 3 years ago RE meme...Birkenstock's Garth on 07.07.16 at 2:00 am

Reading so many arguing about RE prices dropping to what they were 2 to 3 years ago and arguing that this will not bad. These are posts by wishful thinking people heavily vested in the singular asset of RE.

Prices, if they drop, will drop to where the market determines they will drop. Could be to prices from a year ago, 3 years ago, 10 years ago…we will not know until it happens.

I agree with Garth about YVR RE in yesterday’s blog, classic signs of an asset that should be shorted for it will fall in value soon enough.

Add today’s perception turning negative, then prices will fall, no doubt. All recessions are 50% economy and 50% psychology.

BTW, have fun with RADIO MOSCOW Garth…be sure to wear Birkenstock sandals/clogs and make some noise with them while on air. If it all begins to go South, do a Khrushchev UN shoe banger with the Birkenstock’s……go for the sympathy vote.

#113 TheSpangler on 07.07.16 at 2:11 am

You know what is better than a house. Dogs, screw housing, just invest in dogs. You get at least 2 walks a day, a wagging tail when you get home, not to mention they pre wash your dishes. Invest in hounds.

#114 fishman on 07.07.16 at 2:13 am

Here we are in the epicentre (west side Van) & not much mention of R/E at the morning coffee clutch. If these prices don’t pry property away then one doesn’t need the money. Nobody I know is buying. Every week the number of deals mortgage brokers send out is multiplying. (If you want to put money to work on short term 2nds,). A lot of applicants from West Van. sub prime with no income stream & no exit plan,scary.

Now many of you long time readers will remember the rather derisive comments about the “gold & canned tuna doomers”. Its true you can’t eat gold. You won’t be eating much B.C. canned tuna either. The first boats just landed in Ucluelet & the landed frozen price is triple what it was last year. You’ll be eating albacore by the gram in expensive sushi joints.

#115 macroman on 07.07.16 at 2:27 am

OK “gart”, garthisnotgod could be a bullion humper but maybe more appropriately a Nelson backwoods T2 bud licker patrolling his crop with his Lee Enfield 303 from WWI.

Careful though, maybe he has some Vietnam Claymores around the perimeter.

Just as long as you know the difference between a humper and a licker. Humpers are Armagedon types but Lickers envision a way forward after the debt bomb.

I bet Kia likes liquor, of the smooth golden variety.

#116 macroman on 07.07.16 at 2:52 am

Congrats Mr and Mrs Boom on 42 detonations.

However, WUL has incorrectly calculated the appropriate
gift. This being a Canuck blog, 42 US is actually 55 Cando.

Therefore it is an emerald she should receive.

Set in a gold band for licking.

#117 juno on 07.07.16 at 3:22 am

was sitting in the lunch room yesterday. Overheard a buddy of mine mention his house doubled in price in the last 3 years. He’s not going to sell his east van 120×33 shack until it his five million in the next 10 years

He thinks real estate can only go up all the foriegners will just keep on bidding housing prices up.

The interesting twist to this story is he only makes about 60g’s before taxes. wife doesn’t work, and mentioned his property tax was 5000+ dollars. with only 5% down on his house and 95% in pure mortgage.

Now how the heck can you live on that

#118 knowitall on 07.07.16 at 3:55 am

I told Mr Turner here last year to buy the metals called MONETARY metals and gold mining shares. Gold went up 35% since then, even the lousiest miner I hold went up 400%. That is only the beginning. While the bond market collapses, along with the stock markets, other than gold producers, fiat money’s purchasing power will approach zero, the MONETARY metal called gold will approach infinity. Same thing for other HARD assets, including REAL ESTATE. Just keep the stuff safe and get out of the miners after at least 3000% and before the brokers go broke.

#119 Zen Headspace on 07.07.16 at 7:16 am

I can explain everything: “Supply and Demand”. It’s an ever shifting phenomenon. A moving target. There will be winners and losers. Today’s winners will be tomorrow’s losers, and today’s losers will be tomorrow’s winners. We can debate it until we are blue in the face, but the “winning” side, or the “right” side will only have won or have only been right temporarily.
Can you see how the sun has moved onward while we have talked? Nothing can stop it in its course. Debate, discussion, argument, or pontification cannot halt the endless revolution of nature. It is the same with business – the stock market, the real estate market, the commodities market, etc. Success and failure are one in the vast stream of life. Success is the beginning of failure, and who can rest safely in success? Impermanence is the nature of all things of this world. Even you will find your ill fortunes too will change. It is easy to understand the impatience of the old, whose days are numbered, but why should you young ones fret when the future is yours? Have patience my friends. Things will turn.
In the mean time, listen to your ultimate advisor – Garth – and get your asses out of mortgaged residential real estate and into diversified balanced liquid assets. You need real shelter…shelter from the looming storm.

#120 ROTFL on 07.07.16 at 7:22 am

#105 Shilly Shally — “the latest public service hire numbers outweigh private sector hires by thousands to one in the last employment announcement. The Trudeau Liberals are assuaging large special interest groups with the public purse.”

It’s THE CENSUS. Look for declines in public service employment through August. We know the special interest group being assuaged here… The reality based community.

P.S. The margins of error in the employment survey are quite large for the headline numbers… And they don’t get smaller when you drill down to provincial and industry numbers.

“In May, employment in public administration increased by 19,000, with some of the gains associated with the 2016 Census. In the 12 months to May, employment in public administration was up by 44,000 (+5.0%). Part of this growth was due to the fact that employment in this industry was at a low point in May 2015.

There were 19,000 more people working in construction in May. On a year-over-year basis, employment in this industry rose by 42,000 (+3.1%), with all of the gains occurring since November.”http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/160610/dq160610a-eng.htm

#121 Lee on 07.07.16 at 7:22 am

Toronto Star article today says luxury starts at $4 million in Toronto now. I think it’s 5. Where is this “This won’t end well” crash in Toronto you all speak of? I guess the next century will bring new opportunities. You’ll never catch this market. Not even if you live another 80 years.

Intemperate words coming from an established lawyer. Interesting. — Garth

#122 Bottoms_Up on 07.07.16 at 7:31 am

#105 Shilly Shally on 07.07.16 at 1:17 am
———————————-
Well someone of your background would surely know that the ratio of public servants to the number of Canadians is at a low point, and that contracting and hiring on contract is hurting full time employment. Someone of your stature would also surely know that in economic slowdowns public spending typically ramps up?

#123 fancy_pants on 07.07.16 at 7:48 am

speaking of implosion…
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/06/stop-cheering-for-this-rally-the-stock-reset-is-coming-commentary.html

#124 CJBob on 07.07.16 at 7:59 am

This is clearly a great place to find people with some time on their hands. How about taking a few seconds to vote for Michael Saunders for the MLB All-Star game.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2016/fv/ballot.jsp?tcid=EngRD-ballot-2016

Now back to your regularly scheduled…

#125 TurnerNation on 07.07.16 at 8:01 am

Big ups to old bearded goats

Btw only 1 ton Fords (F350) are available a dually I think? But the FortMcMuck lot would know.

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.16 at 8:05 am

@#112 knowitall

Nobody likes a knowitall.

#127 Apocalypse2016 on 07.07.16 at 8:07 am

The Summer of Hell is truly here, only just beginning.

Another white trash thug cop in Minnesota has just ignited a race and class war that will thunder across the USA this year. Watch out, Cleveland!!!

http://www.cnn.com/

At home, Ontario has entered a cataclysmic drought, spreading across the continent. Food prices will soar, meat will be cheaper for a while as animals are slaughtered rather than fed, then meat prices will be through the roof by 2017. Major food shortages and unemployment will follow from this very soon. Epic heat waves are juust starting and the power grid will be in collapse by summer’s end.

Canada has just committed more troops to Latvia, Russia will be at war with us by summer’s end, Putin knows pussies when he sees them, and that’s what the West is now.

Rio Olympics will be horrific.

Get the hell out of all major cities by August, folks.

#128 TurnerNation on 07.07.16 at 8:13 am

#92 CREIT
and MPAC cancelled their IPO plans.

#129 cramar on 07.07.16 at 8:28 am

I like using celery to scoop up my hummus.

#130 TurnerNation on 07.07.16 at 8:29 am

122 Apocalypse what drought? Wheat and others plunged likely on supply. Load up.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZW&p=d1

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.16 at 8:39 am

Apoplectic 2061

“Get the hell out of all major cities by August, folks.”
********************************************

That will be your prediction on Jan1st 2061…..and people will still think you’re a loon.

#132 Alistair McLaughlin on 07.07.16 at 8:39 am

@#45 Bottoms_Up, my own observations line up with that article. Houses I saw in Orleans with FOR SALE signs – some that switched realtors twice – did not sell all last year. This spring, the signs suddenly have the diagonal SOLD draped across them. My neighbours, who could not sell their 3BR townhome all last year with a realtor, managed to unload it this spring through Grapevine for crying out loud, and did so without a major price reduction.

#133 mpeacock on 07.07.16 at 8:45 am

Garth
it seems in recent years since the free trade deals and globalization the investment markets have seen one crash or severe bear market after another, about every 6 years with really no gains.
I told my wife to invest with adviser in mix investment as you recommend back 4 years ago and she finally did 2 years ago but she has been generally loosing money ever since. The correction has not happened in housing, and markets are completely stagnant it not retreating.
If markets don’t start to gain in the next year and housing show severe correction, she is going to jump to the winner, regardless of risk.
too bad, as my common-sense on markets good – houses bad, now sounds like non-sense.

Anyone who invests expecting steady gains every month and year will end up chasing returns, and ultimately flop. Regardless, she is invested poorly as a properly balanced and diversified, low-fee portfolio has not lost money over this time. As for real estate, with the huge entry and exit fees, not to mention the onerous cost of owning, large capital gains are required just to break even – and that horse has left the barn. — Garth

#134 Alistair McLaughlin on 07.07.16 at 8:47 am

@#53 Irent, find my post from yesterday where I actually go through a math example to explain why a 30% decrease is much greater than a 30% increase. (And why a 50% decrease is double the size of a 50% increase.)

#135 fancy_pants on 07.07.16 at 8:54 am

a gut feeling that Obama will remain in office after November. just a gut feeling. something is going down. again, gut feeling. what’s that smell?

#136 westcdn on 07.07.16 at 8:55 am

I thought this was an interesting rant. It is a bit self-promotional but it does reveal some of the dark side of the asset management industry.

Garth is right about Fiduciary Duty to his clients but not all “Financial Advisors” are bound by this obligation. I don’t believe the Americans are worse than Canadians in this regard. Defined Contribution Pension Plans are a going to a boon to them.

http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/07/06/how-dare-you-make-us-eat-our-own-cooking/

My instincts tell me we have 5 years before the Global economy blows up again. My guess is the average Joe is going to get clobbered by rising taxes. I would not count on getting the pension promised to you – too many of those pension plans are woefully underfunded and are getting into risky assets to get yield. This is another consequence of low interest rates.
Watch what happens when everyone for the exit door at the same time. I know from experience that door gets small – kind of like Hotel California. You can check in but you can’t check out.

#137 Nuke on 07.07.16 at 9:14 am

When I first moved into my 3 bedroom downtown Toronto TH I chose to rent as home price to annual rent was about 40. Now a generation after we raised our kids and am looking to retire, the home price to annual rent is over 60. Fortunately it is a rent controlled non-profit housing unit so market rents are separated from real estate speculation. Our future OAS and my spouse’s small CPP covers rent, hydro and insurance and will index more than the rent. That leaves my private and public pensions and investments to be unbundled from housing costs.

So much FOMO hand wringing from owners and buyers for just a place to eat and sleep. Just rent a place and let others worry. It is really about cash flow.

#138 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 07.07.16 at 9:28 am

Like a true politician you are not listening to the people who say we are now a minority. I wonder if our brilliant government immigration people are counting the all the babies that every newcomer is having. Also when they can pay for having baby in a Canadian hospital, get a little Canadian citizen, fly home. When their kid turns 18 they can sponsor the 2 parents over. Somebody has to start taking a long term view and also START LISTENING AND ACCEPTING what the taxpayers are saying. You think it is ugly now just wait.

“We” are not a minority. But you are a bigot. Go away. — Garth

#139 M_S on 07.07.16 at 9:50 am

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/in-ai/Pages/rfmrm.aspx

What is the point of the above letter?

#140 BOOM! on 07.07.16 at 9:52 am

Thanks to everyone for their congratulations on our 42nd anniversary.

We have had a ‘wonderful life’ to borrow from Frank Capra’s movie.

I am always mystified by those real-estate prices in TO and Vancouver. We have nothing comparable.

I hope there can be a rational end -without too many tears -in both cities. Sheer madness!!

#141 Jenmick on 07.07.16 at 9:59 am

So higher prices but lower volumes spell “TIMBERRR”…

we’ll volumes doubled in vancouver for luxury sales….read this
Vehicle Details
https://mobile.adesa.ca/m/home?loginsLeft&SAMLResponse=eJzFVtty6joMfecrmPSxA0kglJIpzAlQWkqhUO59M7aTGBI723ZK4OuPw%2B1Ad9vd%2FXRmmAmWpaUlyZZ8J0AYRPYrFhGjAmfbzaoWLqMQrFbMx4SiFUX%2Bwl0iFGIM4BIyl3qEAYwQ07ITzAVhtKoV8oaWbQsR4zYVElCpRIZ5kzPK6jcyC3ahYJesvHF7%2B6ZlkzCgwk4dV7WYU5sBQYRNQYiFLaE9dLrPtgK0gRCYS4V%2FbhJ9bxNxJhlkgVa7S7XtHSdeE4IprHfM%2FwEIC5CHLLzTzxXu9nkYSiBjcblqMISzExDE%2BHvXYqdtD2MIsRCaXtt7uAS1nWNQP05XWhJAQwAhW7peELkRI5isXM8PFsQDyF%2F5AaU4QNHC%2B1CSv00CUvSJRxVdjg85R6Kq%2BVJGtq6v1%2Bv8uphn3NMLhmHoRkVXOkgQ70qrZY7GGLWpy%2FbrBqCMEggCsgVpzF0sfYayTuAxTqQffgFt6qaRQudwAnPQtOiVymbmgt0PkS5IcgFywgfmEewVu5hjCnF2%2FNquaocYRhxQ4TIeig%2Frv3OG6TsOWIRRThw57%2Fzqn7hoEg8L%2BePkGFbqRRG%2FUtEUSjfHePYwu5Na8zxs9AplEI8W%2BmOvX%2FcH60mlERdZb%2F6Y4CmrPxZnbNJwOsmquuN0brxneUrPYf2xuKdaHIz6r1Hg6IOXQtSuzJORTkU0q%2FSdQdPwp7fjecth23l7cl9Jeu51aUXcopHMNkPUapbGqDBDm%2Fst7Ziz8dD1tygDG4MeDcRjWHowvc3IXI7rN6uiu22t73XEkmc2eBarXuVa7zQ84FsN692CSzJKFqXAmTrY768f%2FW59USoPX0TmabicWokOKxv4CzvT%2BaZs3JI3q9R%2FMVr345LwvJlVjCu8xVfNUd90%2BPXCAU%2FjYFGuR6%2FeTDx32r43m725zoORMftD0KPbqUHY5GE0aj23vFky7%2FeWgTH7FReMuNl9CK6TOjNuyzdcX85JV3dvGk%2FL4spyi%2FGgfi1u%2B9aiR6z%2BNNMpRk%2Fr%2BWBtNTpmEo6CJJSPbndbh288YG%2F3i8B7bw69avW%2FCpxn%2FFJ4uOzDeLHEUB5WPdWm2s1sSx02IL%2FuX2be3EkIyrk7VXuqej9biyYLAaGDWF1hl2CUwmm1EHC5oerwrQ%2F9Y%2B%2FlkkCDUZekUGmv25%2Ft7%2FsnDO0FBhxz7WugJpAg22Pyhb5wx5WY%2F9Y4i3bh0DiPDfgznA9bB4dKA5F0W3wUZBNBbLmJDiOgiQPs7YDU4JScwPTvSG0fJ5VS%2BkOwJ1c2OoEdrZWzLy%2F%2FrPs8hD4OQY7sRgdU9bg744T%2Fl8Lrlwz0y%2Bz9JjgNw1j6NB2POMRUZnfLP0%2FEc2MFKXEiPxE1AvV%2BUD2s9u0TA9ow1VPivvqsGUcHrp9CfbJ3ITuFcpIep%2F3pMXB8adX%2BBUyBR4E%3D#vdp&vehicleId=203962584

#142 Jenmick on 07.07.16 at 10:00 am

Wrong link…..please cancel and I’ll send the right one…thx

#143 Jenmick on 07.07.16 at 10:03 am

This is the link

Toronto and Vancouver’s record million-dollar homes reclassifying luxury market
“One million just doesn’t buy you much in Vancouver proper or Toronto proper, for that matter, whereas in Calgary…

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/7/7/Toronto-and-Vancouvers-record-million-dollar-homes-reclassifying-luxury-market.aspx

#144 AB Boxster on 07.07.16 at 10:20 am

Go Jason Go.
NDP will be crushed in the next Alberta election.

#145 Kris on 07.07.16 at 10:21 am

Great article from one of UK’s leading newspapers:

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/jul/07/vancouver-chinese-city-racism-meets-real-estate-british-columbia

#146 OSFI to increase supervision on mortgage underwriting on 07.07.16 at 10:36 am

LOL. This should help.

http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/osfi-to-increase-supervision-on-mortgage-underwriting-210034.aspx

OSFI: Hey underwriter, any hong kong cash in that suitcase your client declared?

Scotiabank Underwriter: Ya but its all good dude I get a kickback on these deals!!

Hahahahaha!!!!!!!

I have forwarded your email addy to the Scotiabank legal department, You’re welcome. — Garth

#147 Ole Doberman on 07.07.16 at 10:46 am

Wow check out this latest beauty for sale in Vancouver:

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2079846/3256-w-16th-avenue-vancouver

Only 2.8 million for this dog house….

#148 Hot Albertan Money on 07.07.16 at 10:53 am

@ #75 Lorne…

why do we need someone to assist us to sell a home……when a notary/lawyer does all the important stuff?

Come on? Without a real estate agent, who will point out the super important but not obvious stuff like…umm…err…how many bedrooms and bathrooms the place has. How many kitchens it has, what colour the walls are, etc.

Actually, come to think of it, what the hell does a real estate agent do that a lawyer/ inspector/current owner can’t do?

#149 Cottingham a bargain on 07.07.16 at 11:18 am

Garth , your refusal to admit that the Chinese but I g from overseas is having a profound affect on prices in Vancouver as well as certain places in the GTA as Richmond Hill and Markham really calls into question your credibility.

You really should take a drive from Yonge and hwy7 to major MACKENZIE drive. Stop in for lunch somewhere. Have a look around. Tell as how much mandarin and Cantonese you here spoken. These are new immigrants to Canada

Immigrants are Canadians. Just like your family. — Garth

#150 Shawn on 07.07.16 at 11:20 am

House Prices Are Unaffordable!

They ARE unaffordable to most people especially in Toronto and Vancouver.

But I have been watching house prices since 1972 (I started at age 12).

Almost continuously since then people have said house prices were too high and unaffordable. Even after the declines in the 1980’s house prices were still considered unaffordable by most people.

Yet more than half of families have always owned a house.

Have we finally reached true unaffordability in Vancouver and will house prices fall a lot?

I don’t know, I have learned not to predict short term market moves. I only react to house prices (and then rarely) I don’t predict them.

It’s all entertainment to me.

#151 Shawn on 07.07.16 at 11:24 am

Amsterdam

Meanwhile, here in Amsterdam people look not very well off and everyone seems to ride a 25 year old single speed bike (theft is a big problem so that is part of the reason to ride a junker). Restaurant prices are unaffordable and yet every restaurant is packed. The entire downtown appears to consist of hotels, bars and restaurants with apartments above the restaurants. Maybe it is all tourists in the restaurants? It’s a somewhat grubby city to my impression. But it has a lot of history and tourist attractions.

#152 Damifino on 07.07.16 at 11:31 am

#114 Zen Headspace

“Can you see how the sun has moved onward while we have talked? Nothing can stop it in its course.”
—————————

Some bibliophiles might disagree (Joshua 10:13).

#153 Pie Napple on 07.07.16 at 11:45 am

“You are a paid Con troll posting here several times a week under various names, always with the same unsubstantiated hyperbole.”

Fair enough, but if you take out all the unsubstantiated hyperbole out of the comments on this blog, all we’d be left with is primitive charts detailing the 2010-14 RE decline in Victoria.

#154 rainclouds on 07.07.16 at 11:49 am

A letter to BC Libs regarding Housing, instructive.

http://bobmackin.ca/?p=3372

#155 Noel on 07.07.16 at 12:05 pm

“Indeed, there is profit to be had by capitalising on people’s discomfort around race. Young sees a willingness on the part of politicians and the real estate industry, faced with the prospect of unpalatable policy decisions, to maintain the status quo. “There are a lot of vested interests here,” he says. “To red-flag the entire conversation as racist, I find that disturbing. This is the most profound social justice issue in Vancouver today.”

By slamming people’s legit concerns as unfounded on your widely popular blog you’re a part of the problem Garth. You’re unwilling to even entertain the idea of an intelligent conversation on foreign capital flows into Canada’s real estate market.

There is no intelligent conversation going on regarding the topic, and you know it. I’ve said repeatedly this blog will not descend to the lowest common denominator of being anti-Chinese, anti-immigrant and blaming “foreigners” for a situation we locals have almost entirely created. Bitch all you wish. Not happening. — Garth

#156 Aggregator on 07.07.16 at 12:18 pm

OSFI cracking down on mortgage lending as home prices skyrocket

LOL.. How many times have we seen this 'crackdown' on income verification and mortgage lending practices? In fact, every single time the government has imposed new mortgage guidelines, home prices moved even higher.

Has anyone figured out what's going on? I did. Now watch how prices soar come September.

I told you there is no market anymore. This is all driven by the government and banks. They're scared as hell.

#157 chapter 9 on 07.07.16 at 12:19 pm

#99 Taxpayer & Consumer
#133 Cherry Blossom

Familiar with Bill C-6? This bill was pushed through the house of commons on the last day before the summer recess. Under the current law ever newcomer between the ages of 14 and 64 must pass a basic english/french test before qualifying for citizenship. New change 18 to 54.
The time that newcomers must live in Canda before they qualify for citizenship,down to just three years of part-time residency.
This bill also would reinstate Canadian citizenship to a convicted Islamist terrorist, the ring leader of the terrorist group Toronto 18 which had plans to kill staff at the CBC, Toronto Stock Exchange, and blow up bombs in downtown Toronto. Another model citizen, right Justin!
The Senate can intervene, the three senators in a position to stop this bill are Claude Carignan,Yonah Martin and Linda Frum.

#158 RentYVR on 07.07.16 at 12:23 pm

Hey Garth, do you have a link to your CBC appearance? I can’t find it online. Thanks!

Tuesday July 19. Will advise. — Garth

#159 Ole Doberman on 07.07.16 at 12:25 pm

#141 OSFI to increase supervision on mortgage underwriting on 07.07.16 at 10:36 am

LOL. This should help.

http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/osfi-to-increase-supervision-on-mortgage-underwriting-210034.aspx

OSFI: Hey underwriter, any hong kong cash in that suitcase your client declared?

Scotiabank Underwriter: Ya but its all good dude I get a kickback on these deals!!

Hahahahaha!!!!!!!

I have forwarded your email addy to the Scotiabank legal department, You’re welcome. — Garth
———————————————————

It’s all too late here anyway – the damage has been done to RE and people’s lives in particular.

And the situation in TO and VAN just scream this, only reason why it’s “finally” be “addressed” is because the dirty little secret went way further than anyone expected.

We need career politicians kicked out of office, to stop corruption and lining their pockets with self interest bribes.

#160 Joe2.0 on 07.07.16 at 12:25 pm

Re 144.
Cottingham a bargin

Who cares where the people are from.
That doesn’t matter.

Our disadvantage in Canada is that we are competing with people from vastly more populated countries that statistically have way more million or billionaires.

Plus the tanking cdn dollar doesn’t help.
People are investing in Vancouvers market because it’s such a great place to live.

Europe’s a mess bracketed in instability, war zones and immigration problems.

China has its own set of problems besides pollution in the cities there are wealthy people who don’t want it to be known so they get the money off shore.

Central or South America where I live part of the year is dangerously corrupt and ruined by the cartels.

Japan has been radiated by Fukushima.

Parts of the U.S. are ok but it’s harder to get residency.
Plus there’s too much “Big Brother Watching” propaganda for my liking.
And apparently many Americans are planning to come to Canada depending on the election outcome.
Based on google searches.

Philippines is hugely corrupt, hot, dangerous.

Africa, dangerous, corrupt.

Canada it’s as good as it gets.
Oh yea there is that bad ole rain in Van
Boo hoo

#161 Bottoms_Up on 07.07.16 at 12:26 pm

#150 Noel on 07.07.16 at 12:05 pm
———————————————
Ok……how much Chinese influence was there in 1981? (Vancouver SFH cost $200,000).

How much Chinese influence in 1995? (Vancouver SFH cost $400,000).

These prices for homes given these dates were also astronomical…..

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/blogs/realestate/vancouver-real-estate-and-2013-proceed-caution

#162 Kris on 07.07.16 at 12:45 pm

DELETED

#163 Cone of Silence on 07.07.16 at 12:52 pm

Why do people get so upset with a financial blog? It is the same thing day in day out and has little to do with managing your personal finances. There are plenty of blogs where I disagree with their views but I don’t rant in the comments. I just leave and never come back. I really don’t understand…

#164 Aggregator on 07.07.16 at 12:55 pm

#156 Bottoms_Up – How much Chinese influence in 1995? (Vancouver SFH cost $400,000).

How much government influence from 1996? Let's look at the hard macro data.

Below are total figures from CMHC and Genworth Canada reports which includes insurance-in-force and guarantees-in-force for MBS.

Year // IIF+GIF in millions $ // Average Home Price Canada

1996    $150,250    $150,822
1997    $189,500    $154,616
1998    $217,200    $152,366
1999    $250,892    $158,030
2000    $290,250    $164,091
2001    $326,184    $171,858
2002    $375,568    $188,138
2003    $420,494    $207,111
2004    $479,850    $226,337
2005    $552,409    $249,311
2006    $614,576    $276,959
2007    $701,807    $307,265
2008    $853,382    $305,021
2009    $997,162    $320,333
2010    $1,084,527    $339,049
2011    $1,195,084    $362,716
2012    $1,249,013    $363,740
2013    $1,275,502    $382,613
2014    $1,321,318    $408,068
2015    $1,340,972    $442,857

CORRELATION: 0.983743287

Nuff said.

#165 robert james on 07.07.16 at 12:57 pm

Vancouver market cooling down ??? http://bc.ctvnews.ca/single-family-home-price-declines-in-vancouver-trend-or-timing-1.2976080

#166 Noel on 07.07.16 at 1:13 pm

DELETED

#167 Kris on 07.07.16 at 1:25 pm

DELETED

#168 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.16 at 1:29 pm

#146 Shawn on 07.07.16 at 11:24 am
Amsterdam

Meanwhile, here in Amsterdam people look not very well off and everyone seems to ride a 25 year old single speed bike (theft is a big problem so that is part of the reason to ride a junker). Restaurant prices are unaffordable and yet every restaurant is packed. The entire downtown appears to consist of hotels, bars and restaurants with apartments above the restaurants. Maybe it is all tourists in the restaurants? It’s a somewhat grubby city to my impression. But it has a lot of history and tourist attractions.
————————
Shawn, open your mind and experience the beauty of Amsterdam.
It’t crowded and expensive for sure.
Though, keep in mind that all taxes and tips are included.
If you want a mini version of Amsterdam, try Harleem, a 15 minute train ride away.
Trains get you virtually anywhere.

#169 DM in C on 07.07.16 at 1:30 pm

Calgary is fine….. move along everyone

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/luxury-real-estate-market-calgary-top-tier-report-increase-1.3668548

#170 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:31 pm

A new report from Sotheby’s International Realty Canada finds homes that will set you back at least $4 million have seen the biggest increase in sales.

“In condos in the $4-million and up range, it’s up 191 per cent versus the first six months of last year,
—————————-
oh well, more silly 70k/yr locals and those pesky low rates

As is often pointed out here, and always ignored, it is the 1%ers who buy lux real estate. Nothing to do with the plebes. — Garth

#171 John Studipor on 07.07.16 at 1:33 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-bank-regulator-tightens-criteria-mortgage-underwriting-132609824–finance.html

Superintendent Jeremy Rudin said in a statement. “OSFI wants to see sound mortgage underwriting procedures in place that adapt to the ever-changing circumstances in this area.”

Does that mean that current mortgage underwriting procedures and not sound? And how could they be sound when the lender is not responsible for the performance of the loans due to CMHC insuring and definitely miss-pricing risk?

OSFI is not responsible, the financial minister is not responsible, Bank of Canada is not responsible, lenders are not responsible, CMHC is not responsible.

Who TF is responsible then for the mess we are in? The market? The borrowers? There is no free market, government is the market thorough the many agencies who instead of doing their job and regulating are actually shaping and screwing the the ‘markets’.

Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau announced in June that the Liberal government would set up a working group of federal, provincial and municipal officials to recommend policy changes aimed at preventing a housing bubble.

Preventing housing bubble? Hello? We have 10 years old supper bubble and he can not see it? I am not sure which planet Bill is inhabiting but it is not definitely not this one.

#172 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:33 pm

bc libs to release 1st month of purchaser data live now on cbc

Wow. One whole month of data? — Garth

#173 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.07.16 at 1:35 pm

#143 Hot Albertan Money on 07.07.16 at 10:53 am
@ #75 Lorne…

why do we need someone to assist us to sell a home……when a notary/lawyer does all the important stuff?

Come on? Without a real estate agent, who will point out the super important but not obvious stuff like…umm…err…how many bedrooms and bathrooms the place has. How many kitchens it has, what colour the walls are, etc.

Actually, come to think of it, what the hell does a real estate agent do that a lawyer/ inspector/current owner can’t do?
————————————————————-

Realtors are good at hiding information from us so we need them or we go in blind. That is what they do.

#174 Damifino on 07.07.16 at 1:38 pm

#158 Cone of Silence

“There are plenty of blogs where I disagree with their views but I don’t rant in the comments. I just leave and never come back. I really don’t understand…”
——————————————

I understand.

Until recently, economics was predicated upon axioms we thought we understood. Apparently, those are now blown out of the water. People are terribly upset and angry about that. This blog offers a convenient place to vent with a reasonably lenient moderator.

Myself, I’ve “left and never came back” on this blog several times. But it’s like quitting smoking. It might take many attempts before one is successful.

Accept it.

#175 Ace Goodheart on 07.07.16 at 1:42 pm

RE: #160 robert james:

Vancouver market cooling down ??? http://bc.ctvnews.ca/single-family-home-price-declines-in-vancouver-trend-or-timing-1.2976080

This is what I was talking about. Home prices have moved past the highest point at which a middle class income earner could afford to purchase one, using every means of credit, borrowing and investment cashing-in available. Once prices move past that point, sales will decline like they are dropping off a cliff (because at that point, the real estate is only affordable to the 1%, which consists of about 24,000 people). To get sales back on track, prices have to go down.

The risk at the point this happens, is that the real estate market will not just go back down to the price point where the middle class can once again afford to purchase the houses, but rather will start a sharp decline. This is due to the fact that the middle class, who have been purchasing these houses up until recently, by borrowing, cashing in, and working as much as they could, were doing so only because they thought the prices would keep going up. So they were actually driving the prices themselves, by their eagerness to purchase.

So that is a risk now. This might be offset by the incredibly high demand for real estate in Vancouver, which is caused of course by the lack of land available and is mostly a problem of physical geography (mountains are hard to move).

#176 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:42 pm

#160 robert james on 07.07.16 at 12:57 pm
Vancouver market cooling down ??? http://bc.ctvnews.ca/single-family-home-price-declines-in-vancouver-trend-or-timing-1.2976080

—————————–
std lot – shittiest part of east van , tear down structure. current ask 1.55 – previous ask 2.0m . lot value over there is about 1.3-1.4

no cooling here, just a wacked asking price.

this house was worth 750k 3-4 years back.

#177 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:44 pm

#167 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:33 pm
bc libs to release 1st month of purchaser data live now on cbc

Wow. One whole month of data? — Garth
=———————————–
actually he just said its only from june 10 to june 29. but expects it to be ‘accurate’ w a large sample size.

‘flipping’ data based on much longer timescale.

#178 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:47 pm

5% of all sales in metro are over 3m (guess the 1% needs 5 houses each)

#179 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:52 pm

province wide 3% offshore

#180 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:56 pm

of the offshore
77% china
6.8 usa
3.0 uk

77% of total offshore buyers (in bc) in lower mainland

#181 Brazil ex-pat on 07.07.16 at 1:57 pm

#167 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:33 pm
bc libs to release 1st month of purchaser data live now on cbc

Wow. One whole month of data? — Garth

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

19 days actually. But facts are facts.

Numbers all of BC:

7700 sales in Greater Vancouver (in 19 days not a small number)
1/3 over one million dollars (2300 – 70K income???)
337 were foreign
258 Chinese
Most foreign buyers bought the MILLION dollar homes…..skewing the prices higher and higher. Something continually discounted by all media.

4.3% foreigners – assuming you BELIEVE the Govt.

Completely in line with what this blog stated. — Garth

#182 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:58 pm

5% of all metro van sales to offshore.

van city is about 1/4 of metro

As stated here. Single digits, likely in 5% range. — Garth

#183 John Studipor on 07.07.16 at 2:01 pm

#159 Aggregator on 07.07.16 at 12:55 pm

How much government influence from 1996? Let’s look at the hard macro data.

Below are total figures from CMHC and Genworth Canada reports which includes insurance-in-force and guarantees-in-force for MBS.

Year // IIF+GIF in millions $ // Average Home Price Canada

2015 $1,340,972 $442,857

————–
‘Insurance’ for 1.34 trillion dollars? Unaccountable, not audited and definitely miss-priced?

I am telling you, mark my words, at the end it will turn out that few junior clerks at CMHC made mistake while feeding the ‘sophisticated’ risk assessment software at CMHC with wrong data (maybe simple typo) and as a result the CHMC premiums got calculated wrongly and the risk miss-priced.

That’s it folks, suck it up, pay for it and move on,

#184 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 2:01 pm

number of transactions

4% in city of van.

14% in richmond

3% surrey (5% of value)

11% burnaby

#185 jess on 07.07.16 at 2:03 pm

The Trading Desk at the New York Fed Has Speed Dials to Wall Street Firms and Bloomberg Terminals

“The stock and bond markets are supposed to exhibit, through their price action, the sum total of knowledge of all market participants.”

“newly created electronic funds”

narrated by Steve Meyer, a Senior Advisor to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, who explains how the Fed has been paying for those trillions in bond purchases since the 2008 crash. Meyer says on the video:

“You may wonder how the Federal Reserve pays for the securities it buys. The Fed does not pay with paper money. Instead, the Fed pays the seller’s bank using newly created electronic funds; and the bank adds those funds to the seller’s account. The seller can spend the funds, or, can simply leave them in the bank. If the funds stay in the bank, then the bank can increase its lending, purchase more assets, or build up the reserves it holds on deposit at the Fed. More broadly, the Fed’s securities purchases increase the total amount of reserves that the banking system keeps at the Fed.”

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PmXbTcOVhU

see – Edge Act corporation

#186 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 2:03 pm

in general offshore buys are much higher value than local ones.

#187 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 2:06 pm

re flipping : (resold in 12 mo)

sfh
2006 – 3000 units ‘flipped
2016 – 851 units flipped

condo
2007 – 2100 flips
2015 – 522 flips

speculation is ruled out. not happening – absolute proof on this one.

#188 Cottingham a bargain on 07.07.16 at 2:10 pm

Garths response to my post at #144 -” immigrants are Canadians. Just like your family”.

Semantics Garth.

Of course my family are immigrants but I do not deny their influence on the country and specific cities back in the day when they came over either. In fact their influence was quite profound.

You need to acknowledge the profound influence ‘new Canadians’ of Asian descent are now having on prices

As stated, and now supported by official stats, about 5% of sales. Move on. — Garth

#189 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 2:13 pm

#163 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.16 at 1:29 pm

Shawn, open your mind and experience the beauty of Amsterdam.
————————-
now how would one get help with ‘mind opening’ in a-dam????

#190 Aggregator on 07.07.16 at 2:21 pm

#166 – And how could they be sound when the lender is not responsible for the performance of the loans due to CMHC insuring and definitely miss-pricing risk?

Exactly. So why is it that you don't see OSFI scrutinizing CMHC's approval process, which by the way does not verify income or use actual MLS transactions to value the price of homes. Nobody knows what CMHC's model is, but what we do know if that is has nothing to do with income verification or the value of homes, rather it's based on probability, liquidity and what tools are available to shore up defaulted loans, i.e., CMHC buying >$1 million properties and reselling it on the market. Yes, CMHC buys properties on the market.

Take a step back and look what's really going on. The government is riding the foreign buyers and shady real estate practices meme because it takes the spotlight away from their own profligate actions. That's why they agreed to collect and provide their own housing data  — because now they can keep those memes running on MSM headlines as everyone debates a bunch of fabricated numbers and not what's really going on behind the scenes as taxpayer's risk continues to swell.

Everything you guys are debating is just noise. Look at the market players in control, not the prices or data.

#191 Rock Beats Paper on 07.07.16 at 2:25 pm

Between our corrupt provincial government and useless federal government. We are doomed here in Hongcouver, Chinada.

That was ugly. — Garth

#133 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 07.07.16 at 9:28 am
Like a true politician you are not listening to the people who say we are now a minority

I wonder what first nations think of these people suggesting immigrants are turning them into a minority?

#192 Self Directed on 07.07.16 at 2:37 pm

Mark Cohodes, seems like a smart guy, calling for a Vancouver Housing Burst. Not just a minor correction, but 50-80%. He can’t pinpoint the exact time (no one can). Says it could start happening in a week, a month, or a year.

He’s shorting Home Capital Group (HCG).

http://globalnews.ca/news/2804304/vancouvers-real-estate-is-fueled-by-a-money-laundering-bubble-market-analyst/

Follow the smart money… People, it’s time to sell that house!

#193 TurnerNation on 07.07.16 at 2:37 pm

Another example of Kanadian Kommunist mind control.
Ontario Hydro telling everyone to turn down their A/C and reduce demand.

Why? We pay highest electricity costs in the world, we have a nuke plant, and allegedly are a first world country.
We bomb other countries for our freedoms. If I want to crank the AC I’ve paid for that right. We are the most technology advanced race right?
AC is ancient technology now…almost 100 years old.

Do you think Dubai tells its people to go easy on AC?

Sunshine listers in ON Hydro – the elite Party Faithful – get richer while we are forced to huddle around a candle for warmth.

#194 BobC on 07.07.16 at 2:43 pm

I love this blog. Thank you Garth.

#195 Brazil ex-pat on 07.07.16 at 2:47 pm

#176 Brazil ex-pat on 07.07.16 at 1:57 pm
#167 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 1:33 pm
bc libs to release 1st month of purchaser data live now on cbc

Wow. One whole month of data? — Garth

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

19 days actually. But facts are facts.

Numbers all of BC:

7700 sales in Greater Vancouver (in 19 days not a small number)
1/3 over one million dollars (2300 – 70K income???)
337 were foreign
258 Chinese
Most foreign buyers bought the MILLION dollar homes…..skewing the prices higher and higher. Something continually discounted by all media.

4.3% foreigners – assuming you BELIEVE the Govt.

Completely in line with what this blog stated. — Garth

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Yes correct. Not arguing that. But the word “proxy buyer” seems to be conveniently deleted or not posted not just here but everywhere in the MSM.

#196 Aggregator on 07.07.16 at 3:03 pm

#187 Self Directed – Mark Cohodes, seems like a smart guy, calling for a Vancouver Housing Burst. Not just a minor correction, but 50-80%.

Of course he sounds smart because he's trying to sell a trade to other hedge funds. He's putting all his eggs in one basket by shorting HCG, which has $8.8 billion in CMHC MBS issuance outstanding, making the firm a systemically important financial firm. Effectively, he's betting against loans that are guaranteed by the Government of Canada. Now that's a risky bet.

#197 Dan Duran on 07.07.16 at 3:06 pm

Year after year the sales go down in summer months which give hopes to the bears. But they never learn. Instead of going out and try to bargain and take advantage, maybe they can negociate 5% off, they wait for the big crash, which never comes. Condo sales up, 3-4 million dollar homes way up.. just sales of the ‘lowly’ bungalow worth $1.5 mil is down because of shortage of listings. And why would they sell for 1.5 when the new shiny 4000 sq ft (which costs 800k to build) sells for 3.5 mil (and in the process generating much economic benefit for the city)? Those bungalows in good locations are fewer and fewer while demand for them goes up every year. If you had one, would you sell? Of course, perhaps you did years ago, you ‘cashed in’ and the money is gone by now, so all that’s left is wishing for a crash.

#198 Ronaldo on 07.07.16 at 3:10 pm

One millennials view on millennials for what it’s worth.

http://news.nationalpost.com/life/this-generation-is-well-and-truly-garbage-why-millennials-are-the-worst-according-to-a-self-hating-millennial

By the way HD, I wouldn’t include you in this person’s views on millennials. I have many millennial nieces and nephews and I can’t say that many fit into this persons description. A few maybe but they would be the younger of this generation. Kinda like the views on boomers. There is an 18 year span that this group makes up and there are certainly many differences between the older half and the younger half. Not all boomers, Gen X, Y or Millennial are created equal. Just my opinion as the oldest of the boomer generation.

#199 John Studipor on 07.07.16 at 3:19 pm

#185 Aggregator

CHMC quietly buying and selling properties on the market, in order to hide foreclosures and keep it/the market/ hot?

wow, and I really mean WOW!

I can’t imagine the chain of lawsuits against government, regulators, lenders, CMHC, by everyone including foreign investors when this blows up.

#200 Rifles on 07.07.16 at 3:42 pm

They must be getting bored of Brexit over there. perhaps there is a feel good element to knowing there is a place on earth more screwed than you are.

As usual the comments section is the place to go for deep insight and reasoned thoughts on why this is and what should be done about it.

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/jul/07/vancouver-chinese-city-racism-meets-real-estate-british-columbia?CMP=fb_gu

#201 Cottingham a bargain on 07.07.16 at 3:44 pm

Garths response at #183 to me” as stated , and now supported by official stats, 5% of sales. Move on”

5% of sales, if true, in an already under supplied housing market is a heck of a lot. A 5 % boost in demand surely would have a much greater than 5% increase in price of any commodity, especially housing.

Nope, because most of it was in one segment of the market, not broadly-based, and no indication it was additional demand over traditional offshore demand. Just admit it. People blaming the Chinese for what the locals have done in the past few years got it wrong. — Garth

#202 Ronaldo on 07.07.16 at 3:47 pm

#145 Shawn

”Almost continuously since then people have said house prices were too high and unaffordable. Even after the declines in the 1980’s house prices were still considered unaffordable by most people.”

Pretty much Shawn. Here are quotes from the Vancouver Sun back in 1974:

Aug. 17/74 – “No autumn relief is in sight for the frustrated home buyer facing the highest prices and mortgage rates in BC history”

“Vancouver July average only slightly higher than June price of $54,254 reflecting slowing sales. It is up $7767 from the average of $46487 in final quarter of 1973.”

”Mortgage rates 11.75 to 12%”

“Building lots are scarce and any than can be bought will be higher by Feb. 75, interest rates to remain high for at least 18 months”

“BC continues to be a popular place to live. Don’t expect rates to ever go below 10% again”

“Resale market very good for home in lower bracket. Vendors asking big prices”

“Black market in rentals (I’ll pay you 4500 if I can get the suite you vacate)”.

“In the medium and more so in the lower range, buyers have to go out to Surrey, Haney and Abbotsford and away from Metro area to get prices they can afford”

“Dow hits 4 year low to 731.34 after 7 declining sessions”

Nov. 1974 – “Dow 667.16”

“Two big banks in US lower prime rate to 10.5% and represents a drop of 1.5% in past 6 weeks.”

“Other banks vary from 10.5 to 11.75% ans some regional banks are maintaining 13%”

”Business leaders ruling out depression”

“Gold record level $184.50”

“A home is so costly today that many homeowners feel it should be passed on to their descendants”

“Home renovations brisk and contractors finding it hard to keep up”

“Odds on nuclear war by 2000 set at 50/50”

Just a few of the things being when house prices were 1/35 of what they are today in Vancouver and with rates that are 80% lower than they were back then. Interesting times ahead indeed.

#203 Ronaldo on 07.07.16 at 3:51 pm

“Black market in rentals (I’ll pay you 4500 if I can get the suite you vacate)”.

Correction to may post. Should have read $500).

#204 jess on 07.07.16 at 4:11 pm

…’in the United States, the government says crooks pocket $4 billion to $6 billion a year through mortgage fraud. The FBI says 80 per cent of the cases they investigate involve industry insiders. Much of the rest falls to organized criminals.

There is no comparable data for Canada. However, industry analysts estimate hundreds of millions of dollars disappear every year through mortgage fraud.

A report issued by Criminal Intelligence Service Canada (CISC) in November 2007, suggested strong housing markets and a heavy reliance on computer-automated underwriting and property-valuation systems to conduct mortgage transactions leave financial institutions vulnerable to mortgage fraud.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/straw-buyers-taking-advantage-of-your-good-name-1.889285

#205 Aggregator on 07.07.16 at 4:24 pm

#194 John Studipor – CHMC quietly buying and selling properties on the market, in order to hide foreclosures and keep it/the market/ hot?

CMHC has a fiduciary duty to protect the interests of CMB and MBS asset holders (investors) by legislative law. The reality is that in any given area, CMHC is insuring multiple properties, of which many property titles are securitized into CMBs or MBSs. Thus, they certainly wouldn't want any low-ball offers on foreclosures to close at that price, since this would lower the value of other neighboring properties, in turn, slowly increasing O/C breach levels on securities. So where CMHC feels they need to intervene, the can simply step in with taxpayer funds and buy the property at fair value and resell it at a later time.

For private insurers like Genworth, whose insurance is 90% backed by taxpayers, they have an program called Homeowner Assistance, that basically offers to pay a debtor's mortgage for an extended period of time, or restructuring the mortgage by increasing the amortization period, and so on.

Our market is riddled with these schemes. This is why you're seeing supply shortages: Too many debtbeats on the brink are still living in their homes. They can't default because the system doesn't allow them to default!

#206 No Chinese Buyer you say? on 07.07.16 at 4:41 pm

“According to the data, 337 sales were made by foreign nationals – equating to roughly 3.3. per cent. Of those, 258 buyers – or 76.6 per cent – originated in China.

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/majority-of-foreign-buyers-from-china-new-real-estate-data-reveals-1.2977337

As stated on this blog often, offshore buyers equate to roughly 5% of the market. The official BC figure is 5.1%. — Garth

#207 bdwy sktrn on 07.07.16 at 6:15 pm

14% in richmond , 11 % in burnaby – both a very large part of the non fraser-valley land base in the 604 . removing 14 % of supply -should- send shockwaves into prices in a finitely supplied market with growing demand.

put 100 people in a room with meals for only 86 and see what happens. after prices there shoot up then you’ve still got 14 (or 11) people spilling over into the next room to steal(outbid) someone elses lunch. and so on.

but garth also does have a great point, it’s us canadians too. every month thousands and thousands more touque wearers vote with their feet to get the heck out of new glasgow, newmarket, or nunauvit and come live the BC dream , hence the houses should be worth more.

#208 Dan Duran on 07.07.16 at 6:52 pm

#200 Shame on you for wanting people to go bankrupt when little adjustments/refinancing can see them through a difficult period. I went through this in 2001 when unemployment in my profession (IT) reached 25% as the govt kept bringing in tens of thousands even in the face of reality because they wanted to lower their own IT costs. I made it through with nobody’s help by getting a little creative. Which makes me smile now when I see folks thinking a little bit of wind change will cause massive defaults. There’s many things one can do to adjust to tougher times. PS I would’ve use a lot stronger language, but Garth is censoring me, even though 100% of what I say is 100% justified. The bottom line is: I won and you lost! Bummer.

#209 Joe2.0 on 07.07.16 at 8:39 pm

Garth you crack me up by quoting the percentage of off shore buyers as if the figures are accurate.

Properties are being bought in Vancouver/throughout Canada via “brokers” leaving no foreign paper trail.
Why you ask?
Because some countries are trying to track down monies that have left the country.

Come on people now let’s get real.
Not real naive.

#210 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.07.16 at 10:12 pm

That’s three posts in a row not even acknowledged. What did I do this time?

They were vulgar. — Garth

#211 Bytor the Snow Dog on 07.07.16 at 10:58 pm

Perhaps the courtesy of a “deleted” might tell me that…

Vulgar just gets tossed. — Garth