A bad sign

BIRD modified

Wobble, wobble.

When the price of a financial asset shoots dramatically higher as the volume of trading thins, the pros head for the exits. Why? Because the dewy amateurs have arrived. By the busload – those people who look at a sole indicator (price) and scream at each other, “we better get in, because it’s now or never!”

What happens next is a slam dunk. The asset peaks, some buyers realize it’s a top, the selling starts, then snowballs as foolish greed becomes regret. Thus (in part) Nortel went from $120 to zero. And it may well be the yet-to-be-written tale of a $2.6 million semi in Kitsilano or a $1.7 million Vancouver Special in a schlocky part of town.

“There’s been a massive divergence in the yvr market which shows it is close to the crash now,” says a wise and experienced player. He’s right. Buried in the latest realtor media release about uppa-uppa-uppa prices lie the seeds of demise.

The pattern of sales is worrisome to anyone who recently bought. Overall, sales declined by a little less than 1% in June from the same time a year ago, but they plopped a whopping 7.7% from May. And this during a time when mortgage rates were falling and prices spiking wildly – up 32.1% from year-ago levels and 3.2% from the previous month (annualized 38%). Classic.

Worse, looks what happened to sales of detached houses across the region. T-I-M-B-E-R-R-R.

CHART 1

In case the GreaterFool Charting Department created another piece of crap, here are some of the sales declines:

Burnaby -30%
New West -8%
Poco -33%
Richmond -28%
Squamish -52%
Van East -26%
Van West -35%
Van North -1.2%
Whistler -41%

Is it still a strong market? You betcha. Sales are running 28% above the 10-year average and the typical detached house is fetching well over $1.7 million. But all that hoopla, greed and naked FOMO matters little if market sentiment is turning. After all, fools keep on buying long after the smart money has packed up and left town.

It’s also interesting to note that while detached sales were falling like Boomer pop stars, money continued to gush into condos – a sales surge of 18%, with a 25% spike in prices. “The lemmings in the local market continue to buy condos based on fomo and so the total unit sales was still deceptively high,” says Deep Listing. “The divergence in the detached vs attached is unprecedented. I also am talking with agents who are getting a ‘no bid’ situation on the high priced product. 40 people come through but ultimately no bid. Even on sales that are occurring you are getting one bid which is high and next bid which is 30% lower. A bad sign.”

There’s no doubt the Van market has detached from economic fundamentals, with the GTA market not far behind. As you know, the average family long ago lost the ability to buy and carry the average home, and RBC’s unaffordability needle is now off the charts. While the locals point at Chinese dudes as the reason, there’s zero evidence to suggest offshore buyers represent more than single digits of overall sales. But FOMO has stalked the land, spawning everything from unmitigated Westside greed among the elite to #donthave1million protests by the moist virgins on the steps of the iconic downtown library. In short, they’re all nuts.

“I think the cracks are now showing,” says DL. “Market is strong but the turn has started.”

The price of a detached home is up 38.9% in a year. Sales in the west end are down 35%. If YVR was a stock, the shorting would be epic.

200 comments ↓

#1 John on 07.05.16 at 5:52 pm

Today I talked to my friend which is a developer… he says that the market is claming down in Toronto. No such crazy demand as it was two-three months ago. Probably, he says, because now mortgages are harder to get… is that true? Did the banks decide something on this matter? And isn’t this great news?

#2 Nelley on 07.05.16 at 5:57 pm

Less than 10% of Hongcouver buyers are Chinese dudes-and Hillary is innocent. Shiny Pony will save this country and Brexit shows the danger of too much democracy.

#3 pathcontrolmonk on 07.05.16 at 6:04 pm

With Justin, Christy and Gregor all suddenly beating the same affordability drum, seems like the writing is on the wall. Perhaps we won’t all have to learn to speak Mandarin after all:

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/richmond-man-files-complaint-over-mandarin-only-strata-meetings-1.2711841

#4 LalaLand on 07.05.16 at 6:05 pm

We have heard that before. It’s gonna crash, it’s gonna crash… And then detached house in van will be 40% higher next year…

#5 rainclouds on 07.05.16 at 6:07 pm

#174 devil dude “How would you propose you force such a collaborative group to do it your way. They won’t. They just won’t.”

Your rant was kinda nonsensical but you are a Realtor after all….Collaborative? as in anti competitive?

What “they” are willing or not willing to do doesn’t matter, its called existing technology….kinda like a fat dude going home (walking on the highway like he always does) while the brand new Ferrari zooms by.

Ostrich

#6 Franciscan Sleuth on 07.05.16 at 6:09 pm

First!!

#7 Emma on 07.05.16 at 6:11 pm

The mortgage mystery gets further unraveled. Have you seen this yet Garth? Chinese money laundering facilitated by Canadian banks. https://betterdwelling.com/are-smurfs-and-canadian-banks-ruining-the-canadian-real-estate-market/

#8 Jerome on 07.05.16 at 6:11 pm

Speaking of shorting, despite being unethical, how would you short this? Short Home capital group? Genworth?

#9 Fool's Errand on 07.05.16 at 6:17 pm

I agree it’s all coming down but calling the top has been a fool’s errand. We all keep calling it but it just keeps going up. Now, if we had a 30% correction, we’d just go back to last year’s prices in Vancouver. Last year we were all saying it was massively overpriced and delusional so what does a 30% price reduction get us? It’s still too pricey to buy into but at least I can finally win a cocktail party argument on real estate prices which I’ve lost consistently for years.

#10 G on 07.05.16 at 6:17 pm

What do you feel a crash would do to the TSX in this current climate?

#11 RentYVR on 07.05.16 at 6:19 pm

And tonight my soon to be former landlord will be showing our West End 2 bed townhouse, which we currently rent for $2,150, to 4 families who have expressed interest in renting it for the new going rate of $3,400.

The rental market here is just as crazy as the buying market. Really can’t wait for this show to end…

#12 Say What? on 07.05.16 at 6:21 pm

“While the locals point at Chinese dudes as the reason, there’s zero evidence to suggest offshore buyers represent more than single digits of overall sales.” – Garth

————————————————————-

The powers that be don’t want the evidence revealed.

#13 Frank on 07.05.16 at 6:22 pm

Can’t wait for that 40% crash so we can go back to the prices of a year ago when we were saying Vancouver real estate was overpriced!

BTW, seeing as Vancouver is the only thing propping this country’s economy up if this market crashes then expect more rate cuts and a new asset bubble cycle.

#14 Al on 07.05.16 at 6:23 pm

So how can we short the yvr housing market? Is it possible?

#15 Ace Goodheart on 07.05.16 at 6:23 pm

RE: “There’s no doubt the Van market has detached from economic fundamentals, with the GTA market not far behind.”

Agree with the first part, disagree strongly with the second part of this statement.

Consider, for just under two million dollars in Vancouver, you can purchase this (referred to by the listing agent as a “character house”):

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17063169/845-W-17TH-AVENUE-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5Z1V3

In Toronto, for the same amount of money, you get this:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16969545/48-STEWART-ST-Toronto-Ontario-M5V1H6-Waterfront-Communities-C1

Or this:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17106510/44-MUNRO-PARK-AVE-Toronto-Ontario-M4E3M3-The-Beaches

Here’s the equivalent of 845 W 17th Avenue in Toronto (I think this one’s actually slightly nicer, but you get the idea):

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17007083/393-OLD-WESTON-RD-Toronto-Ontario-M6N3A9-Weston-Pellam-Park

Vancouver prices are scary and unaffordable. If no one is buying, it is because no one has the money.

Toronto is just not like that. Prices here are not unaffordable. $1.9 million buys you a very nice house. There is plenty available for less than that.

#16 Say What? on 07.05.16 at 6:23 pm

“I think the cracks are now showing,” says DL. “Market is strong but the turn has started.” – DL

————————————————————–

We’ve heard these type of doomer prognostications so many times in the last eight years. Always based on anecdotal evidence. What a yawn.

#17 TnT on 07.05.16 at 6:28 pm

Financial Advisor Fee

What is the going rate for a certified human advisor these days?

Is this fee a sliding scale (pay lower) with higher portfolios?

#18 TnT on 07.05.16 at 6:30 pm

#1 John on 07.05.16 at 5:52 pm

Yes… Had the buyers home appraisers here today and was told we sold at the peak here in Toronto.

As per appraiser “banks are very nervous”

#19 Kev on 07.05.16 at 6:30 pm

The other day yet another young-ish thirty something couple showed up on my Facebook, this time standing in front of their brand new, and very nice looking, house in North Vancouver. I know neither of them have particularly high paying jobs, and I have to wonder how the hell they are able to afford this place. I’m an attorney, my wife a doctor, and we’ve crunched the numbers and can’t make purchasing a home make financial sense. We’re especially pissed because in the days of old, we would be in a good position to buy that $800,000 beauty of a house that most people couldn’t afford, that is now going for $1.5-2 because of this insanity. But we refuse to bite.

#20 JSS on 07.05.16 at 6:31 pm

Rub your tummy…nice…

Emera Approves a 10% Increase in Common Dividend and Extends Dividend Growth Target to 2020.

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2016/07/04/emera-approves-a-10-increase-in-common-dividend-and-extends-dividend-growth#grOmb6vETyDjSxCk.99

#21 Johnny D on 07.05.16 at 6:33 pm

XRE sure popped over the last few weeks. Thanks Brexit. How can one expect REITS to act going forward? Will they plateau or will this recent uptrend reverse as the fed gets back to talking about interest rate hikes? Maybe a good time to take some profits for those of us who bought low?

#22 Smartalox on 07.05.16 at 6:33 pm

We’ll see how the numbers look in September, but if it has been three straight months of sales declines (through the all-important ‘spring market, no less), then we may indeed have entered the phase when Wile E. Coyote has run off the cliff, and sits perched in the air; he still has to look down, offer a hapless riposte, and then plummet to his doom.

Incidentally, I’ve noticed a distinct up-tick in the number of mom-with-kid selfies posted by the realtors I’m connected with on Facebook. A refreshing change from the overpriced listing’s they usually post, but also a clear indication that these people have more and more idle time on their hands.

Even my neighbor, who dealt a little real estate on the side, has confessed that he’s given up RE to focus on his day (i.e.: BC government) job.

Go figure.

#23 WallOfWorry on 07.05.16 at 6:35 pm

I have never heard of “smart money” as it applies to the residential real estate sector??? Seems like an arbitrary made up term? It is not like there are institutional investors moving the market? If that being the case then wouldn’t this post calling for a top based upon divergences be eerily similar to the posts in the archives going back to 2011?

As long as liquidity is being pumped into asset markets, and Central Bankers race to devalue their currencies we will continue to see a solid competitive real estate market and trying to spot the “top” is nonsense.

#24 N M on 07.05.16 at 6:36 pm

I have to agree with you Garth. The home that I am renting for $1600 in White Rock has not fetched the $1.4 asking price for the 6 weeks it has been on the market. Open house this Saturday saw 1 family visit. My fear of having to buy a townhouse with beautiful power line views for half a mill is fading away nicely

#25 ronh on 07.05.16 at 6:37 pm

And that folks, is how markets work.

#26 Post on 07.05.16 at 6:42 pm

Even though the facts are true, why would you quote an unknown person or poster on your nightly blog? You’ve often criticized other posters for quoting “authorities” whom you don’t agree with.

So could you tell us more about your mistery analyst or should we just follow you own advice and never listen or believe anything from the comments section.

#27 Felix on 07.05.16 at 6:44 pm

DELETED

#28 Joe2.0 on 07.05.16 at 6:52 pm

Still lots of places priced higher then Vancouver.
New York, LA, Switzerland, Hong Kong, London, Copenhagen
In Shanghi 1ml US gets you 45 sq meters.

It’s different there too.

#29 America's Moist Wanted on 07.05.16 at 6:55 pm

The cure for high prices is high prices. Are we there yet in the hot RE markets?

Same goes for Ontario electricity?

#30 DoTheMath on 07.05.16 at 6:56 pm

Re#13: “Can’t wait for that 40% crash so we can go back to the prices of a year ago when we were saying Vancouver real estate was overpriced!”

I’m pretty sure you aren’t a math major. I don’t think a 40% crash will drop prices to where they were a year ago. For example:
– A million dollar home last year is now being valued at 1.4 million this year.
– Now if that same home takes a 40% hit (i.e 0.4 x 1.4M), then it will be valued at 840K.

#31 Victoria Real Estate Update on 07.05.16 at 6:57 pm

# 1 Frank

Your realtor-like opinion is always ridiculous.

It’s not as though rates are at normal levels where numerous significant rate cuts could be used to stimulate the Canadian housing market or the economy in general.

That card has already been played.

Overall, there is a limited amount of things that can be done to stimulate the housing market. Unfortunately for many Canadian mortgage holders, Canadian mortgage lending standards are already among the loosest in the world. Anything that could be done to loosen standards further would be a lot less effective than what’s already been done.

All bubbles deflate. No government in any of the numerous countries that went through the housing bubble experience (and inevitable bubble deflation) willingly let their bubble deflate. Housing bubbles get to a point where further stimulus becomes ineffective and unable to prevent the inevitable price correction.

If you think that more rate drops will keep the party going in Vancouver then you are even more delusional than first thought.

Vancouver’s major price correction will wipe out many families financially.

Major housing corrections were not supposed to happen in Japan, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Iceland, the US, etc., but the down forces were stronger than the stimulus, resulting in financial devastation for millions of families.

Like investing in any asset class, buying a house comes with risk, despite what realtors may tell you. Unfortunately thousands of Vancouver families will learn this the hard way.

#32 gong show on 07.05.16 at 6:58 pm

If #vanre starts to fall we are all doomed here because there is no other magic trick to cover the gap.
Rich stupid foreigners come at the end and evaporate in a week, i hope it crashes before next year election so the blame falls clear in the @bcliberals lap. The finance minister owns 7 properties, go figure minions…

#33 A Yank in BC on 07.05.16 at 7:05 pm

#14 Al on 07.05.16 at 6:23 pm

So how can we short the yvr housing market? Is it possible?

I would think the obvious answer is to short the lenders who are most exposed to housing, and perhaps the Canadian currency as well.

#34 Adam Smith on 07.05.16 at 7:08 pm

Can someone explain to me why realtors are a thing? They take a hefty percentage of sales and provide what exactly? Seems like websites should have replaced them already and then we wouldn’t a group of people who people trust because they know about real estate but have a conflict of interest because they want the market to bubble and they want you to buy even when it makes no sense since they get immediate money while you just bought a falling knife.

#35 Daniela on 07.05.16 at 7:09 pm

Things that make you go hmmm…shorting the Canadian real estate market –

https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/marc-cohodes-short-canadian-real-estate/

#36 Rome burns on 07.05.16 at 7:12 pm

Nice way to deflect attention from HAM by saying sales slowing.

Nothing to look at here while Rome burns…

#37 Chaddywack on 07.05.16 at 7:13 pm

It’s going down, I’m yelling T-I-M-B-E-R-R-R!

Garth now after this post Ke$ha is stuck in my head. Oh well…..great visuals from the music video at least ;)

#38 Michael King on 07.05.16 at 7:13 pm

Writing from Kitsilano (Vancouver). I hate to sound like a broken record because I’ve posted before and said the same thing. For months I’ve thought the market has slowed but now we have some numbers to prove the point. At least 6 listings in the neighbourhood have not sold since the beginning of April. Plus, in the last week or so new listings are popping up on every block. As Garth says, this is a sign of a downward market. Trying to fool the yokels I’ve noticed that “Sold” signs are being left up for weeks so that the market looks active. Surprised to see that condos are a hot item. This listing is in our building and has the same square footage as our suite. We bought in December of ’96 for $149,900. This one may be priced too high as it has been listed for at least a month and in “normal” times suites in the building go fast. Timber! is right.

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2077955/203-2370-w-2nd-avenue-vancouver

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.16 at 7:16 pm

@#179 Devils Advocate
Apparently you completely miss the irony of your own statements….
a la ” its OUR party and we wont “dance” with you unless there’s an “incents”(sic “incentive”)

I read that as ‘ Its our closed shop cartel and we wont work with you unless you bribe/pay us……”

So much for “working in your clients best interests”

All you care about is your commission and you just admitted as much.

#40 Henry Olivere on 07.05.16 at 7:22 pm

Don’t just worry about Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets but the U.S. in the next 18 months is going to be hit hard too.

It may not be a 2007 to 2008 real estate downturn as a 33% average price drop happened and some places saw 70% to 80% price drops.

However, a 15% to 18% price correction on average and 30% to 40% price drops in overheated U.S. real estate markets is coming.

#41 wallflower on 07.05.16 at 7:27 pm

I know a C4 home selling with $600K from parents. When parents are popping in with $600K for the down payment, I would bet this whole scary thing is just about over.

#42 Bubblelicious on 07.05.16 at 7:29 pm

#13 Frank “Can’t wait for that 40% crash…”.

Why not 60 or 80%? After all these recent oversized price gains, there is huge room on the downside. Especially for a minor burg in a panicked market.

Think about it this way: When the sentiment changes, and all these supposedly foreign buyers head for the exits, what industry in this town is going to save it?

The port?

#43 Andrew Woburn on 07.05.16 at 7:31 pm

First the immigrants took the jobs the natives didn’t want.

Now computers have to do the jobs the immigrants won’t do.

Nobody wants to be a rectal teaching assistant.

http://qz.com/723130/diagnosing-prostate-cancer-is-difficult-a-robotic-butt-might-make-it-easier/

#44 Andrew Woburn on 07.05.16 at 7:37 pm

I know this isn’t a tech blog but if you can speed up your Chrome searches it might help your investment prowess.

– Seven tricks to speed up Google Chrome

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/21/seven-tricks-to-speed-up-google-chrome

#45 VanRant on 07.05.16 at 7:40 pm

Look for listings to skyrocket as homeowners tries to time the top of the market. POP!

#46 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 07.05.16 at 7:40 pm

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.16 at 7:16 pm
@#179 Devils Advocate
Apparently you completely miss the irony of your own statements….
a la ” its OUR party and we wont “dance” with you unless there’s an “incents”(sic “incentive”)

I read that as ‘ Its our closed shop cartel and we wont work with you unless you bribe/pay us……”

So much for “working in your clients best interests”

All you care about is your commission and you just admitted as much.

My buyer clients know I don’t work for free. They know that sellers who offer to cooperate are a lot more likely to collaborate toward a mutual gain. Sellers who are mere postings are trying to win by making others lose.

If a mere posting is the perfect house for my buyer client I will do all I can to secure it for them BUT they know I don’t work for free and they have been well enough educated to understand the mindset of such sellers. Often they chose to move on to the “NEXT” rather than waste time.

#47 Angela on 07.05.16 at 7:45 pm

Quick question…yes or no. I’m on the cusp of 50, 28 years at the same Corporation (Cadillac pension that starts with O). Poor me. O offers AVC investment plan average over 6%. Good idea for the next 7 to 10 years? Or is that [email protected] trying to fund those-who-are-drawing-already?

#48 Debt's Dark Embrace on 07.05.16 at 7:46 pm

As long as the cost of borrowing money is almost free there is no bubble.

#49 Brett in Calgary on 07.05.16 at 7:51 pm

I must say, I am looking forward to the day when I don’t have to hear, or see “real estate is a great investment”. Sure, it can be, but it hasn’t been for quite a while.

#50 Another Perspective on 07.05.16 at 7:58 pm

“While the locals point at Chinese dudes as the reason, there’s zero evidence to suggest offshore buyers represent more than single digits of overall sales.”

Just remember, if 8% of fringe buyers caused a 32% decline in US prices nationally, then 5% of foreign buyers can have a commensurate effect on price appreciation in key markets, which then creates a domino effect in surrounding communities.

No level of government wants to touch the flow of foreign capital for fear of being labelled a bad name or offending a foreign country. The much hoped for federal intervention ain’t going to happen as it might offend those very flows of capital.

As for a slowing market, you are now getting close to September when things slow down. Its a pretty natural slow down now. More importantly, a few arm chair analysts projecting a market wide slow down based on their extremely narrow sampling is laudable. “Timber” because the condo next to me s 40% overvalued – watch out.”

For instance, in my bedroom community, prices have already gone up 30% in 6 months as a result of the spillover of Vancouver capital. Inventory has dried up like Vancouver and anything decent gets sold immediately – still. All that is left is utter crap and even that is getting picked off one house at a time.

Sorry folks, there is no market correction this year. This is not the tipping point, an inflection point, or a ‘trend is my friend’ moment. Prices have stabilized before the next run up starting in January….

#51 Andrew Woburn on 07.05.16 at 8:12 pm

The first people to agree that the monetary policy horse has been pretty much ridden into the ground are central bankers, especially the IMF, the central bank for central bankers, which has not been especially thrilled with ZIRP, NIRP and QE. With the world hovering on the edge of recession, many people are saying it is time for politicians to do their job and stop hiding behind the Fed. The only real choice in an anemic economy seems to be fiscal policy stimulus such as borrowing at low rates to fund infrastructure development.

It is possible that the coming political changes in Washington may promote this. In the unlikely event Trump wins, it is doubtful he would cheerfully tolerate the obstructionists of the Tea Party and Hillary would surely be more effective with Congress than Obama. We could even hope for a GOP meltdown to change their headbanging attitudes.

The attached article suggests a swing to fiscal from monetary stimulus is likely to hammer the bond market and drive interest rates. If you still believe that houses always go up and interest rates always go down, this will not be welcome news.

“Global fiscal easing could be coming and that’s bad news for the bond market”

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/trading-desk/global-fiscal-easing-could-be-coming-and-thats-bad-news-for-the-bond-market?__lsa=d121-1168

#52 Freeman on 07.05.16 at 8:12 pm

Coming to a bank near you soon: NEGATIVE RATES !

Just imagine: Hurry up and get your CIBC mortgage now at negative 0.18%, for a limited time only.

Want to see what I mean: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkde-10y?countrycode=bx&mod=MW_story_quote

Negative Mortgage Rates Are Real: Will Canadians Get Paid To Buy A House? http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/18/negative-mortgage-rates_n_9722138.html

Silly. Will never happen. — Garth

#53 robert james on 07.05.16 at 8:15 pm

Vancouver bubble to burst… http://globalnews.ca/video/2804456/betting-on-the-housing-bubble-burst

#54 kc on 07.05.16 at 8:16 pm

http://globalnews.ca/news/2804304/vancouvers-real-estate-is-fueled-by-a-money-laundering-bubble-market-analyst/

This is a jaw dropper from this morning’s news…

wife recorded it for me so I could watch how he (Marc) is calling all of BC’s politicians in bed with off shore money and how he predicts a crash of biblical proportions…

pass the popcorn please

what’s your take Garth?

#55 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 07.05.16 at 8:17 pm

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.16 at 7:16 pm

I enjoy what I do. Occasionally I run into a dipshit who spoils my day the likes of which are easily dropped and ignored from then on. See that’s the beauty of my business… I get to choose who I work (dance };-)) with, when I work and how I work. You may disagree but it’s been working well for me for over two decades. BTW over 80% of my business is repeat and referral. So apparently it’s working for my clients as well.

“Your average person is really quite stupid and half of them are dumber than that”, as George Carlin says. I tend to enjoy working with the smarter set. A lot to be said for Darwinism.

Need I say Mr. Fartz that your kind is doomed?

#56 WUL on 07.05.16 at 8:17 pm

After reading Garth’s blog tonight I was curious about what the listing stats were. Maybe I missed it in his posting. So, I went back to the Vancouver Sun article and noted this nugget:

“ Dan Morrison, president of the real estate board, says more homes have been listed for sale in Greater Vancouver over the last four months than during any other four-month period over the past decade.”

Ominous.

Galveston had a seawall also, but it did not prevent a flood.

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=tony+rice+galveston+flood+youtube&view=detail&mid=5159610BB74A090D9D685159610BB74A090D9D68&FORM=VIRE

#57 Kilt on 07.05.16 at 8:19 pm

One month isn’t a trend. Especially when this months numbers are above the 10 year average. Even cow town is still showing resilience in the SFH market. Summer will cool the market and it may ramp back up in early fall depending on what T2 does.
Kilt

#58 Loon on 07.05.16 at 8:19 pm

West Van, West side and Van west are 3 separate areas all distinct from each.

West Van is west of North Van, both on the north shore.
West side is south of Stanley park and mainly low rise residential apartments.
Van west is Kits, Point Grey, Shaugnessy basically high end SFH.

I know. But it is spelled ‘Westside’. — Garth

#59 AK on 07.05.16 at 8:21 pm

“Is it still a strong market? You betcha. Sales are running 28% above the 10-year average and the typical detached house is fetching well over $1.7 million.”
==================================
Incredible. If the average Vancouver family is earning 80K per year, who is buying the 1.7 million $ homes?

#60 fitzmancam on 07.05.16 at 8:22 pm

Hola Garth. Hat’s off to your posting. As you I once had commercial storefront in small hamlet, that was embraced by the locals, fought by the naysayers, and as I’m sure you’ve noticed was taxed endlessly by the levels of government. The biggest hurdle in Ontario is first getting licensing, approvals, all with exhorbant costs and then the ongoing fees for annual renewals, nothwithstanding the payroll issue that rears it’s ugly overwritten head each month. I’m sure you would agree that the warm fuzzy feeling you get sharing buttertarts with your friends and new friends far outways the appreciation in your pocket book…..and that is the point, do with your money what makes you feel good, forget the sheep be a wolf, and remember gestures are free……congrats…….

#61 Nelley on 07.05.16 at 8:24 pm

Wacky Bernie Sanders lost the FBI primary today.

#62 Facebook promotes FOMO on 07.05.16 at 8:27 pm

#19 Kev on 07.05.16 at 6:30 pm

The other day yet another young-ish thirty something couple showed up on my Facebook, this time standing in front of their brand new, and very nice looking, house in North Vancouver.

See what Facebook promotes? FOMO!!!

I refuse to sign up for a FB account so I don’t drink their Koolaid.

#63 bdwy sktrn on 07.05.16 at 8:32 pm

We bought in December of ’96 for $149,900. This one may be priced too high (now 495 ask)

————————-
at that time for just a little more you could have picked up a big sfh near the drive which are now going for 1.5.

buy dirt not a condo, can’t make more land.

#64 ANON on 07.05.16 at 8:34 pm

prices spiking wildly – up 32.1% from year-ago levels

Can you still see the ground? If not, it has started.

#65 Snowboid on 07.05.16 at 8:35 pm

39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.16 at 7:16 pm…

Please don’t argue with the Golden Troll® of Kelowna, especially when he is off his meds. It only gets worse with each post, then he either gets banned or threatens to leave forever (again).

I’m surprised with the mini-boom in Kelowna that he has time to post, but of course he forgets he told us a few years back who he is – so it’s not too hard to do a couple of quick web searches to see how full of BS he is.

#66 cramar on 07.05.16 at 8:35 pm

#143 CJBob on 07.05.16 at 12:52 pm
#137 cramar on 07.05.16 at 11:44 am
…I love educating University professors….
______________________________
I’m sure that with over 3 million dollars of net worth they appreciate the help.

Has anyone every seen a net worth calculation where home value (perhaps discounted) and pensions aren’t included? Garth gets you guys wound up and you fall for his math every time. Amazing. He’s sitting back laughing.

For many the hate could be jealousy because they poor profs have a higher net worth than most can ever dream of even if/when house prices do come down.

———————

You are missing the point! With their income they could have at least a million more liquid wealth if they saved and invested properly.

Do future pensions figure into real current net wealth calculations? Retirement will be a dream yes, but if one dies now, does the spouse get a lump sum? If so, then it is no different than an insurance policy.

#67 bdwy sktrn on 07.05.16 at 8:41 pm

#15 Ace Goodheart on 07.05.16 at 6:23 pm

Consider, for just under two million dollars in Vancouver, you can purchase this (referred to by the listing agent as a “character house”):

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17063169/845-W-17TH-AVENUE-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5Z1V3

In Toronto, for the same amount of money, you get this:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16969545/48-STEWART-ST-Toronto-Ontario-M5V1H6-Waterfront-Communities-C1
—————————————————-
nice try but it’s a fail here.

the vancouver lot is more than twice the size of the toronto lot. and it’s in near paradise not the deathy boring flat featureless expanse of urban wasteland that is the gta. (locationx3)

if that postage stamp lot is 2m in Toronto the van place should be 3 or 4m.

#68 young & foolish on 07.05.16 at 8:45 pm

I think the observation made a couple of days ago, about the undoing of the middle class, was very prescient. Low interest rates have just resulted in a debt orgy. Our new serfdom awaits around the corner, starting with the “sharing economy”. How sad.

#69 bdwy sktrn on 07.05.16 at 8:52 pm

#48 Loon on 07.05.16 at 8:19 pm
West Van, West side and Van west are 3 separate areas all distinct from each.
——————————
are you an eastern grey loon by chance?

————————
West side is south of Stanley park and mainly low rise residential apartments.
Van west is Kits, Point Grey, Shaugnessy basically high end SFH.

I know. But it is spelled ‘Westside’. — Garth

————————-
2 eastern loons.

west end = downtown peninsula
west side = what you are calling ‘van west’ , which is something i have never heard used in 21 years living in the city.

use google for help!


Tough. “Vancouver West” is the designated name under which the GVREB organizes stats for that area. Argue with them. — Garth

#70 Nemesis on 07.05.16 at 9:00 pm

“I know. But it is spelled ‘Westside’.” — HonGarth

#Wrong… #ItWozTheWestEndWotDoneIt… #LuluToldMe…

https://youtu.be/CGeLYwDZF7g?t=59s

#BonusRetro… #JustForWUL… #PostGalvestonInterview…

https://youtu.be/Hts4NfqUOX4

#GalvestonReprise…

https://youtu.be/OsqxQJv-P_k

#71 young & foolish on 07.05.16 at 9:01 pm

“The only real choice in an anemic economy seems to be fiscal policy stimulus such as borrowing at low rates to fund infrastructure development.”

Looks like Canada has already jumped on this track. But will it work? Either way, it looks like governments have a lot more to do with our free market economies after all.

#72 CJBob on 07.05.16 at 9:02 pm

#66 cramar on 07.05.16 at 8:35 pm
———————
You are missing the point! …With their income they could have at least a million more liquid wealth if they saved and invested properly.
_____________________
That’s the point? Save for what? My point is they are fine for retirement, no welfare lines in the future. Money is for spending on life, you don’t get to take it with you.

Financial advisors love telling people they will run out of money because more investments means more income for them.

Childish. A fee-based advisor has a fiduciary duty of care for clients. No commissions. — Garth

#73 For those about to flop... on 07.05.16 at 9:02 pm

#58 Loon on 07.05.16 at 8:19 pm
West Van, West side and Van west are 3 separate areas all distinct from each.

West Van is west of North Van, both on the north shore.
West side is south of Stanley park and mainly low rise residential apartments.
Van west is Kits, Point Grey, Shaugnessy basically high end SFH.

I know. But it is spelled ‘Westside’. — Garth

/////////////////////////////////

If I am going to work on a house in West Van I am heading over the Lions gate or Ironworkers bridges to the north shore.

If I am working in the West End I am driving to the west end of downtown.

If I am working on the Westside of Vancouver, I am crossing Ontario st. near Main st. heading towards U.B.C

You guys are gonna make me late for work…

M42BC

#74 YVR update on 07.05.16 at 9:05 pm

“ Dan Morrison, president of the real estate board, says more homes have been listed for sale in Greater Vancouver over the last four months than during any other four-month period over the past decade.”

WRONG. Listings are at a record low. Don’t know why you’re ousting false information.

And a slowdown? Abbotsford prices are up almost 80% year over year for a SFD. House last year priced at 400k going for 750K now.

Actually Morrison is correct. Active listings are up year/year. — Garth

#75 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 07.05.16 at 9:23 pm

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.16 at 7:16 pm

I enjoy what I do but even on the best of days I wouldn’t do it if it wasn’t for the paycheque. So yes, I care about my commission as does my staff who rely upon me to run a viable business in order to be able to pay them or they wouldn’t show up for work much longer. We all work for some kind of pay. I’m not wealthy enough to be retired quite yet let alone a philanthropist

“Closed shop / cartel”? I guess from your socialist point of view maybe so.

#76 common sense on 07.05.16 at 9:28 pm

Although the Fed hinted at 4 rate hikes in 2016, 4 are not going to happen.

As banks were bailed out in 2009 and doing poorly now, does anyone think the FED will solely consider raising rates to save the banks and sacrifice the markets, so we don’t have a repeat?

Any thoughts?

#77 bdwy sktrn on 07.05.16 at 9:31 pm

Real estate board figures show about 7,800 properties listed for sale on the multiple listing system in Metro Vancouver, a roughly 40 per cent decline compared to June 2015, and a one per cent increase from May.
————————–

at this rate we will be back to a buyer’s market sometime in the year 2024.

#78 bigrider on 07.05.16 at 9:37 pm

Hey Garth, please feel free to use my phrase “uppa ,uppa uppa” but please coin it correctly. It is said as follows :

” Da Price of a da house , she’sa only gonna go one a way ,she’sa only gonna go uppa ,Uppa UPPA ! ”

Yes , lucky for you , I am still around and the Italians in the hood still think that real estate is better than food and sex combined .

#79 TurnerNation on 07.05.16 at 9:39 pm

#15 Ace Goodheart I live nearby that one 38 Stewart.

They omitted the new 13 story condo looming in its backyard. That’s right almost to the lot line.
Balconies peer down. Expect a rein of butts – and raining down. Glass balconies = full moon.

Out front is the ass end of Thompson hotel delivery garage and loud exhaust fans. (See you on theor rooftop patio this Friday and maybe Sat.)

#rentallifestyle
#bottomsup

#80 Ole Doberman on 07.05.16 at 9:40 pm

So the smart money is picking up and leaving – where is the capital going to flow through next, stocks? Bonds?

#81 bigrider on 07.05.16 at 9:45 pm

I asked my zio the other day why he doesn’t sever the lot in two pieces and sell the back half on a rental property he has. The lot would fetch many multiples of what he paid for the whole thing over twenty years ago.

He told me and I quote ” better to keepa da land, she always go uppa because one piece of land ina your handsa isa one a piece a less for everybody else. Anda besides , I cana grow my owna corn and maka my own polenta”. unquote.

#82 West Parker on 07.05.16 at 9:48 pm

Went to Whitefish Montana this last week for a drive. Noticing the high prices on all things real estate I asked our waitress why everything was so expensive. She informed me it was because of all the Albertans buying everything up. Albertans worse then Asians.

#83 Tony on 07.05.16 at 9:48 pm

The important facts are Seattle and San Fransisco prices have turned downward and the most important thing I keep trying to tell everyone about is THE VALUE OF THE YUAN. The Yuan is at a 6 year low and is at a level where all or almost all of the smart money has already left China. These 3 things mean a peak or near peak in Vancouver prices.

#84 Arfmooocat on 07.05.16 at 9:50 pm

#74 YVR update

Abbotsford prices are up almost 80% year over year for a SFD. House last year priced at 400k going for 750K now.

Is that super stupid or what… the poor stupid left holding the bag when the bottom falls out.

Detached houses in Abbotsford have gained 37% (not 80%) in the last 12 months, according to the Fraser Vallet board. Hyperbole, however, is off the chart. — Garth

#85 bdwy sktrn on 07.05.16 at 9:53 pm

Sales of single homes fell 19 per cent compared to June 2015, but the benchmark price jumped almost 39 per cent over the same period

———————————

since the total number if these homes gets smaller every it is numerically impossible to not have fewer and fewer sales eventually unless each house gets sold more than once in a single year period

every year they get more and more rare. kinda like lebron or adelle.

#86 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 07.05.16 at 9:54 pm

However, a 15% to 18% price correction on average and 30% to 40% price drops in overheated U.S. real estate markets is coming.

No

#87 F.dover on 07.05.16 at 9:57 pm

Vancouver is in a nice place yes, but is it’s self such a nice place? I mean such a nice place to pay such a price to live in squalor cheque to cheque while paying off the 35 year mortgage?

And speaking of bubbles, I remember being silver horny in November ’08 and while not participating, watching closely as it went up up up and at 49.50 or there about, going right back to where it had started so fast that you would have had to have sold at 40 to have made a gain. More blip than bubble.

In comparison, this van real estate event is in very slow motion. So get rich and sell! (Or hold and be poor again)

#88 Smoking Man on 07.05.16 at 10:03 pm

Looking at my crystal ball. I see supply and demand.

Vancouver don’t know the market but on the Lakeshore go train line ridership up huge. With out a catalyst on the horizon for rates to go anywhere but down.

Uppa uppa uppa. It doesn’t have to make sence when it comes to Herdonomics.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#89 Cottingham a bargain on 07.05.16 at 10:07 pm

Big rider .

Oh my God I can’t stop laughing .

I am of Italian background and still think real estate prices are going up , guilty as the people you are making fun of ,but I do understand how easy it is to make fun of us.

Polenta and “uppa” can’t stop laughing !

#90 Vanreal on 07.05.16 at 10:09 pm

#11 RentYVR on 07.05.16 at 6:19 pm
And tonight my soon to be former landlord will be showing our West End 2 bed townhouse, which we currently rent for $2,150, to 4 families who have expressed interest in renting it for the new going rate of $3,400.

The rental market here is just as crazy as the buying market. Really can’t wait for this show to end…
#################

I rent a top level house in the Killarney area of east Van — 4-bedroom + den with 2 full bathrooms and 2-car garage. $1600 per month

I take public transit to and from work.

But hey I guess it is not as decent as in your west end!

#91 Basil Fawlty on 07.05.16 at 10:10 pm

If the % of foreign buyers in Vancouver is less than 10% of the market. Why are 10% of residential units reported to be vacant by the City of Van and the Province? Are Canadians paying these high prices and then not even renting out the property with vacancy rates at all time lows?
I am left scratching my arse.

The majority of ’empty houses’ are DT condos, and there’s no proof they are not used occasionally, like mine in Toronto. — Garth

#92 mouldy in YVR on 07.05.16 at 10:12 pm

Garth – we’re all nuts here in YVR…..and beyond ‘uncoupled from fundamentals’ – pretty soon you’ll need a visa to visit…….BTW if I got a $100 bucks for every ‘water damage/ restoration’ van parked outside my downtown YVR condo, I’d retire tomorrow.
We have had so many plumbing incidences in my (less than 25 year old) highrise that I’m beginning to think I’m living in a boat -TGIR (thank God I rent).
Restoration and insurance – the best rackets going in YVR – after real estate of course!

#93 For those about to flop... on 07.05.16 at 10:14 pm

:28 pm
Although the Fed hinted at 4 rate hikes in 2016, 4 are not going to happen.

As banks were bailed out in 2009 and doing poorly now, does anyone think the FED will solely consider raising rates to save the banks and sacrifice the markets, so we don’t have a repeat?

Any thoughts?

///////////////////////////////////

Didn’t you get the 2016 Janet Yellen swimwear edition calendar?

Instead of Jan,Feb, Mar,April,May June ,July Aug,SeptOct ,Nov ,Dec. it just has No,No,No,No,No,No,No,No,No,No,No,No!

Also it features Janet Yellen starting in a bikini putting one more piece of clothing ON each month until she is wrapped up like a mummy.

We don’t want anyone getting hurt, except savers, screw em’…

M42BC

#94 S.Bby on 07.05.16 at 10:21 pm

#77 Bdy Skytrn

at this rate we will be back to a buyer’s market sometime in the year 2024.
——————————————————-
So just in time for you to sell.

#95 bdwy sktrn on 07.05.16 at 10:24 pm

vanreal :I rent a top level house in the Killarney area of east Van — 4-bedroom + den with 2 full bathrooms and 2-car garage. $1600 per month
—————————————
wow – a decent 2br basement in the drive will fetch that.

killarney, is that near new west?

#96 common sense on 07.05.16 at 10:25 pm

#93 Flopski

I agree but have this nagging doubt they will do anything to save the banks. Again.

#97 pete on 07.05.16 at 10:28 pm

I just snicker at all of these fools buying into this kind of market.
I’m just sitting back on the porch at my rented home here in Valleyfield and thinking to myself “sorry suckers, I’m not going to be taking out a mortgage so someone who has saved nothing can retire as a millionaire and leave me saddled with debt”. As is stands now, I have no (that’s zero) debt and I’m keeping it that way.
I’m just relishing being able to leave one more ‘fool’ stuck holding the bag when the ‘music stops’.

#98 TurnerNation on 07.05.16 at 10:35 pm

Say no more. Wondering in which building is Gartho’s bachelor pad.
Must be many young shapely curves and liquidity in there.
I’m talking 25-year old bottles of Scotch natch.

#99 WallOfWorry on 07.05.16 at 10:38 pm

#51…Andrew Woburn
“The attached article suggests a swing to fiscal from monetary stimulus is likely to hammer the bond market and drive interest rates. If you still believe that houses always go up and interest rates always go down, this will not be welcome news”

If it was so easy to use fiscal stimulus to spark the economy why haven’t they? It is simple: All governments, including the US are awash in debt, with most of the debt being accrued from subsidies and entitlements, and to invest in economic development and raise interest rates would create the scenario where they can’t service the debt. No political leader is going to slash entitlements….think of all of those voters on food stamps! Think about it….the end game is drawing near where many nations (Greece, Puerto Rico, Portugal etc) can never pay back their debts. Stronger economies like the US, Germany etc cannot raise rates as it would make debt servicing a real drag on the economy…..so they print money and hope they create wealth that stimulates economic development. Guess what….QE1/2/3/4, NIRP etc hasn’t worked other than create asset bubbles which the middle class has largely not participated in.

#100 eRite on 07.05.16 at 10:51 pm

The problem right now in Vancouver – since real estate prices have risen fast is that everthing has been selling. You have homeowners saying “if I sell, where will I be able to move”. So, now they’re putting their homes on the market at just insane levels – just like buying a quick pick lottery ticket . There are more listings but at even more obscene prices than Vancouver has very recently seen. The asking prices are not even comparable to similar sales 2 months ago. And realtors aren’t objecting. They’re just thrilled to be getting a listing.

For example, a 70 year old home in south Kerrisdale (just down the street from me) on a 40 foot lot, on a busy street, which is just basically a tear down sold in February for $2.7. A new listing for a similar type house on a lesser lot was just listed for $4,288,888.

I’ve heard from many of my neighbors “I’m not ready to move, but if I listed my house now, I’m going to ask something insane. And if it doesn’t sell oh well”

So even buyers with seemingly endless buckets of money seem to have reached their limits. From what I’ve seen, the new listings are at levels that aren’t at 40% more than last year, they’re pricing them at 40% more than early spring.

And the mortgage industry says, “no bubble.” — Garth

#101 Jenmick on 07.05.16 at 10:51 pm

So when your ” Timberr” moment comes and goes and stI’ll prices keep climbing what is your line/ excuse going to be ???
Maybe at that point you finally realize that something else is truely driving this market in Yvr….let’s see

The moment referred to has happened, as I reported. Sales numbers from the GVREB are there for you to read. — Garth

#102 Paul on 07.05.16 at 10:53 pm

#16 Say What? on 07.05.16 at 6:23 pm

“I think the cracks are now showing,” says DL. “Market is strong but the turn has started.” – DL

————————————————————–

We’ve heard these type of doomer prognostications so many times in the last eight years. Always based on anecdotal evidence. What a yawn.
———————————————————-
That better be a big YAWN to get your foot back out.
It’s coming position yourself accordingly!

#103 Paul on 07.05.16 at 10:58 pm

We better back off!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT8CRi9k4bo

#104 45north on 07.05.16 at 11:05 pm

But all that hoopla, greed and naked FOMO matters little if market sentiment is turning

FOMO = fear of losing out

http://www.internetslang.com/FOMO-meaning-definition.asp

TnT: As per appraiser “banks are very nervous”

the gig is up

Post: Even though the facts are true, why would you quote an unknown person or poster on your nightly blog?

because he doesn’t want his name used

Victoria Real Estate: It’s not as though rates are at normal levels where numerous significant rate cuts could be used to stimulate the Canadian housing market or the economy in general.

as I have said in the US as the housing market collapsed, the US Fed dropped rates from 5% to 0%

Daniela and Robert James: thanks for your links. Mark Cohodes says people will lose a generation of savings. Here he is again:

http://globalnews.ca/video/2804456/betting-on-the-housing-bubble-burst

Chaddywack: what about your guy that mortgaged his house and bought four other houses? What’s up?

#105 eRite on 07.05.16 at 11:05 pm

If the new listings on single family houses in Vancouver were to correct by 25 or 30%, they’d be back to the prices being paid in February.

Sounds big, but not much of a correction. It’s like buying your 649 ticket. When you check out the winning numbers, you say out loud “crap”. But you move on fast.

I’ll bet that if listing prices dropped back to prices of 3 months ago, the market for SFH’s would pick right back up.

Math is hard, right? A 30% correction on a $1.7 million house drops the value by $500,000. That’s a 2011 price. — Garth

#106 45north on 07.05.16 at 11:06 pm

let’s try that again

FOMO = fear of missing out

#107 eRite on 07.05.16 at 11:08 pm

“Sales numbers from the GVREB are there for you to read. — Garth”
——–
That would be the REBGV!

#108 Ole Doberman on 07.05.16 at 11:28 pm

A man with passion ready to lead this world, about time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6nGZNXygOs

#109 For those about to flop... on 07.05.16 at 11:29 pm

I am a decent size guy 6ft2 250lb, never broken a toilet in my life.

The landlord told me the other day that the guy renting the other suite has busted the toilet,as in smashed the water tank, just by sitting on it,4 times in 6 months and is glad that he has decided to move out to be closer to work.

He has a bit of a belly but cmon what sort of toilet gymnastics are you doin in there…

M42BC

#110 Smoking Man on 07.05.16 at 11:33 pm

I don’t know what’s going in in university these days but if you want them to come home with psd send them there.

A buddy’s daughter. 21 year old female. Poised to be a doctor when leaving hight school comes home with tattoos and dead buddies.

Broke that girl who overdosed while trying to set up safe injection sights was her pall. In fact she has two other pals that offed them selves.

Shes going through a thought time. Seeing a therapist who goes ape shit whenever this spirt of righteousness mentions the Rothschild’s. The 1 %.

What are they doing to these kids.

The second you see yourself as a victim is the second you will never reach prosperity.

You need to be a stupid idiot to make money. Chase a dream with all you got no matter how stupid. You can’t do that being a victim. You never make it out of the gate.

Look at me. I can’t spell worth a shit. Will I be an amazing writer in the future. Hell ya.

And if I’m not. I had fun trying. But to not try is a tragedy.

Safe spaces make kids kill themselves.

I’ve seen it.

Burn down the schools.

Dr Smoking Man

#111 Broadway commercial skytrain station on 07.05.16 at 11:40 pm

107 For those about to flop… on 07.05.16 at 11:29 pm

I am a decent size guy 6ft2 250lb, never broken a toilet in my life____
_________________€__________

Don’t you contractor guys just use a coffee cup from the sink???

#112 Frank on 07.05.16 at 11:55 pm

Why not 60 or 80%? After all these recent oversized price gains, there is huge room on the downside.

Because outside of a few desert hell holes in the greatest financial collapse in 80 years, it’s never happened before.

#113 Your a goof Smoky on 07.05.16 at 11:56 pm

DELETED

#114 Smoking Man on 07.06.16 at 12:12 am

#113 Your a goof Smoky on 07.05.16 at 11:56 pm
DELETED

Welcome to delete button bitch… Been there a few times myself.

#115 eRite on 07.06.16 at 12:25 am

“Math is hard, right? A 30% correction on a $1.7 million house drops the value by $500,000. That’s a 2011 price. — Garth”
——-
You’re using sales numbers. I’m using brand new asking/listing prices. Comprehension is hard, right?
—–
Sorry if that sounded condescending, I don’t kmow what came over me. It’s late and you have to read hundreds of posts, mostly of dribble.

#116 Joseph R. on 07.06.16 at 12:35 am

#108 Ole Doberman on 07.05.16 at 11:28 pm
A man with passion ready to lead this world, about time:

————————————————

Must be a wrong link: all I saw was Donald Trump giving a speech.

#117 Vanreal on 07.06.16 at 1:04 am

Sorry Garth but you’re wrong a 30% drop on 1.7 million brings you down to 1.2 million. That is where prices would be on that property about 5 months ago.

Five months ago the average YVR detached house fetched $1.816 million. Stop embarrassing yourself here. If possible. — Garth

#118 hikerVancouver on 07.06.16 at 1:38 am

I will believe it when I see it! Too many times crash was “seen” just to transform to a jump in prices.
Do I think prices are unreal – yes I do. Don’t know why anybody who doesn’t like to gamble would buy a place in last 10 years in Vancouver, but obviously I do not know how to gamble – for now.

#119 Pooh on 07.06.16 at 2:31 am

#30

That is the bull-realtor burn of the year.

Bravo.

#120 Gerald French on 07.06.16 at 2:45 am

Garth, you forgot to calculate the effect of all the little family units who just started receiving their $550 per child ‘helicopter money cheques’ from the Trudeau Liberals. Ant average couple with 3 kids and you’ve got an additional $1600 ++ p/m for years as added mortgage pmts. Prices will SOAR with all this new cashola from our Chief Pandering Minister of Youth. T-Light.

I think that will allow the sheeple to bump up their expectations and this will certainly be factored in to the calculation by mortgage brokers and [email protected]

You put an additional $1600 bucks in the hands of a naive buyer and prices could easily double from here. I saw a bit on the CBC who was interviewing a ‘new family’ that have ELEVEN children, a neat little $6000 dollars p/m with zero down on a ‘liar loan’ and we have a new homeowner.

You know as well as I do that this is already happening as the cheques are rolling in this week.

#121 Another Perspective on 07.06.16 at 2:49 am

“Think about it this way: When the sentiment changes, and all these supposedly foreign buyers head for the exits, what industry in this town is going to save it?”

Haha, you are assuming that foreign investors are rational and looking at asset valuations as opposed to a great way to store perhaps not so legal capital….

Any market downturn simply caters to foreign capital as locals are the net losers while foreign capital gets to do some cost averaging with new purchases.

By the way, if you think that anything will change with Condo King Bob Rennie as Christy Clark’s chief fundraiser, you are kidding yourself. That is all you need to know about the politics of real estate in BC – the biggest developer is the primary funder of the party in power and has the ear of the premier, as well as her arm on trade missions to China.

And any BC ‘government’ report on foreign ownership will be the expected ‘nothing to see here folks’ – guaranteed. But what the Liberals are not counting on will be the public reaction to such a report – this time the public is angry and they will not believe the report as they are no longer afraid of calling a spade a spade.

If the Liberals were smart, they would acknowledge the problem, get in front of it a little more actively – but not too actively. You would not want the gravy train to completely stop.

But alas, more smoke and mirror measures by the party just in time for the election.

#122 %'s mean little... on 07.06.16 at 3:25 am

Percentages used to predict a SFH price drop are anecdotal. Percentages are for AFTER the fact, as Garth has posted.

The price will drop to a number where the market sees fit to buy again.

If correct that the RE bubble has burst, there goes half of the ONLY high GDP growth sector left in Canada (YVR RE et al).

If 416 follows (the other half), we will undoubtedly have a recession.

How bad it will get no one knows but home prices have a lot of legroom to drop.

#123 Joe Mamma on 07.06.16 at 3:58 am

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/meet-the-wall-street-short-seller-betting-against-canadian-real-estate

#124 when the hype simmers down on 07.06.16 at 6:12 am

Vancouver RE reminds me of many crazes that went from boom to bust over the course of speculative history.

When the 604 loses it’s sheen, the selling will start and it will escalate into a stampede. Reductions of 30% or 40% are very conservative. The dump will be much deeper and can only be compensated by a crashing Canadian Dollar.

It’s like Vancouverites are not reading any national or international news outside of their little tiny BC bubble. There is a serious chance that China will skid into a severe recession. Many parts of Europe are already in recession and sliding possibly into depression. The US economy is held together by propaganda and duct tape now that QE programs have stopped.

Sure, whatever bad happens anywhere else in the world can only be super bullish for RE in the GVRD.

Brexit – Bullish!
China corruption scandals – Bullish!
Italian bank meltdown – Bullish!
Germany’s Deutsche Bank meltdown – Bullish!

The huge price increase this year was the equivalent to a blow off top. It is THE SIGNAL to sell, sell, sell and go into cash or cash equivalent to buy back later – IF AT ALL.

GVRD RE is HIGHLY SPECULATIVE and will crash back to valuations the people can actually afford just like any other speculative asset that has run out of buyers.

Would I buy if it crashed 50%? No, and I don’t think many will.

Buy for 20 cents on the Dollar and no liens, yes.

The world does not revolve around overpriced RE in the GVRD.

#125 Craig Stephenson on 07.06.16 at 7:30 am

However, a 15% to 18% price correction on average and a 30% to 40% price drops in overheated U.S. real estate markets is coming.

Yes, yes, yes, yes!!!!!!!

This is on the low side too more like 40% to 50% and its coming in 12 months.

#126 Grey Dog on 07.06.16 at 7:32 am

CjBob, back to the professors, they do NOT have enough money saved….do the quick simple math, they say they consume a take home of 18,000 a month. Take their current savings divide by 30 (years of life left to live), barely reaches 100k$/year. That includes the home they live in…as Garth keeps stating, you can’t pay for retirement lifestyle while living in their home. That is why they NEED TO SAVE MORE NOW!

#127 Franco on 07.06.16 at 7:45 am

Real Estate is not Nortel. Real Estate will always recover, unless land is created, but the way the world is going is that it looks like more land will be under water.

#128 cto on 07.06.16 at 7:53 am

US mega millions jackpot an estimated $508 million.
Why’s this???
Why can’t a jackpot like this be divided up so it can increase odds and change the lives of 100 people instead of 1.
it shows the mentality of people today, that they want it all, and not just a positive change to their life.
It’s more likely a life would be “positively” changed by $5M than $500M, because this amount is so large it attracts a lot of negative consequences that the average ticket holder would have to adjust to.
Be careful what you wish for…

#129 fancy_pants on 07.06.16 at 8:02 am

prices of detached there are up almost 40% in one year? that is truly incredible. Not sure they will ever see pre 2009 prices again. Especially when future rounds of QE are injected into global economies. B/c we all know the only way to service debt is with more debt. I am more afraid of hyperinflation on everyday goods than deflation on RE but I’m not a RE speculator. Whatever the case, buckle up.

#130 TurnerNation on 07.06.16 at 8:02 am

Smoking man many years ago I met a couple, sent two sons away to an important sounding University (has Q in its name). Only one returned home.
The other hanged himself in dorm room.
This is war.

#131 cto on 07.06.16 at 8:09 am

Is it possible that the US FED was playing up BREXIT issues to yet find another delay for raising interest rates? seems likely at this point. Why would the highly indebted US government quietly tell them that they better find an “issue” or else!

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.16 at 8:16 am

@#75 Devils Advil
“Closed shop / cartel”? I guess from your socialist point of view maybe so….”
********************************************

Apparently Im not the only one who thinks so.

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://unrealwatchdog.com/post/130189346817/competition-bureau-vs-treb-crea&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwj39cG4597NAhXp5YMKHYdZDLEQFgg5MAc&usg=AFQjCNH5bKPNdFCUXqozJeI8j6orFMtz1Q

An excellent, easy to read, little walk through the Canadian Competition Bureau’s lawsuits againgst CREA and TREB brought to you by another blog “dog”

Enjoy fellow “dogs”.
See how the Real Estate Monopoly has screwed the average consumer……… :)

#133 Andrewt on 07.06.16 at 8:18 am

And then there’s this, to the folks that think the government will do anything to keep the party going:

“It sounds great: let’s go help out homebuyers,” says broker Justin Blacklock with Averbach Mortgages in Vancouver. However, he believes that somewhere down the road, the government “freaked out about the market” and reconsidered its pledge.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/liberal-government-housing-rrsp-1.3665912

#134 Lee on 07.06.16 at 8:23 am

Property values in Toronto up another 20% yoy. Fence sitting must be getting painful. Nothing comes of nothing. With bonds getting crushed and rates ready to crumble again this could last a generation. I hear 65 is a great time to buy a sfh in Toronto. Toronto council predicts a 90% increase in the population in the core of Toronto over the next 20 years. No place to go but up. Silly buggers. You really think JT and Winney will let the real estate market crash in Toronto. Check out who they have lunch with every day. Its not “fence sitters looking to buy a SFH”. Time to shut this blog down. We all know how to count to 60, and then to 40. Everyone else comes here to be told when Toronto will crash. Its been a good run.

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.16 at 8:47 am

@#113 Your a goof Smoky
********************************************

Good to know your grammar and spelling are at a grade 3 level of education.
You’re a “goof” Smokey…. would have been the correct way to write that nom de plume but I suspect that your “deleted” drivel was far more painful to decipher…..hence the deletion.
Back to stamping license plates my little yard ape ….the Warden is getting angry.

#136 Cottingham a bargain on 07.06.16 at 9:07 am

Exactly as I have said for a while now . Appreciation rate of 905 has been exceeding that of 416 for several years now ( near 905 Richman Hill , markham )

Suck wind 416 snobs

#137 Gerald French on 07.06.16 at 9:14 am

#128

“US mega millions jackpot an estimated $508 million.
Why’s this???
Why can’t a jackpot like this be divided up so it can increase odds and change the lives of 100 people instead of 1.
it shows the mentality of people today, that they want it all, and not just a positive change to their life.”

Why not split it up so everyone on the planet gets a cheque for ten cents? This egalitarian Canadian Liberal crap is a mental disease.

Better still, why not make lottery tickets mandatory like a ‘voluntary tax’ and shovel the money into a new bureaucracy where more civil servants are hired from special interest groups at outrageous salaries and pensions.

Better still, buy the 1% civil servants an island in the Caribbean ( and make it like Cuba) so that our ‘best and brightest’ can refresh and give their ‘all’ when they come back from 6 month vacations.

Stop being jealous of people who win and or get lucky. I want to win 500 million so I can build a high wall to keep people like you out of my life.

#138 Bat Flipper on 07.06.16 at 9:26 am

Obviously foreign countries won’t let their currency go to other countries forever. In March, China started to make more blockades to prevent currency from leaving China. They are making it much more strict. Also, some banks are trying to get their money back from people who shipped it overseas.
http://www.chinalawblog.com/2016/03/getting-money-out-of-china-the-reality-has-changed.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/china-real-estate-vancouver-fugitive-1.3655136

It’s only a matter of time until foreign countries want their money back. We all know where it is and who facilitated the transactions.

Even if it is a small percentage of the market, it will have a big impact on price.

Next, the media has a major impact on people buying. If people read prices going up, and high demand. FOMO happens. If people read about a bubble bursting and losing money, then people run for the exits.

Everyone says their is a housing bubble and this has been all over the news. People don’t buy if there is risk. The only people saying no housing bubble is mortgage dudes…

Prices are sticky and the decline will be long. We won’t have foreclosures on every street unless rates pop or unemployment pops, which probably won’t happen.

#139 cramar on 07.06.16 at 9:44 am

#15 Ace Goodheart on 07.05.16 at 6:23 pm

[snip]

In Toronto, for the same amount of money, you get this:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16969545/48-STEWART-ST-Toronto-Ontario-M5V1H6-Waterfront-Communities-C1

Or this:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17106510/44-MUNRO-PARK-AVE-Toronto-Ontario-M4E3M3-The-Beaches

Here’s the equivalent of 845 W 17th Avenue in Toronto (I think this one’s actually slightly nicer, but you get the idea):

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17007083/393-OLD-WESTON-RD-Toronto-Ontario-M6N3A9-Weston-Pellam-Park

Vancouver prices are scary and unaffordable. If no one is buying, it is because no one has the money.

Toronto is just not like that. Prices here are not unaffordable. $1.9 million buys you a very nice house. There is plenty available for less than that.

———–

Every location is relative. You think prices in Toronto are “not unaffordable”. I think they’re insane!. The 17th Ave. house for example could be bought in Windsor for well under $100k. And a fraction of $1.9 million “buys you a very nice house.”

#140 For those about to flop... on 07.06.16 at 10:08 am

#111 Broadway commercial skytrain station on 07.05.16 at 11:40 pm
107 For those about to flop… on 07.05.16 at 11:29 pm

I am a decent size guy 6ft2 250lb, never broken a toilet in my life____
_________________€__________

Don’t you contractor guys just use a coffee cup from the sink???

////////////////////////////////

I know the incident you are referring to,that guy was sick.

Most houses I work on have a functioning toilet,but I have a backup plan.

I don’t have the same problem as some people do as I drive a campervan to work with a toilet and a sink in the back.

If I am going to do that at someone’s 10 million dollar house I am going for the crystal…

M42BC

#141 theworsttypeofperson on 07.06.16 at 10:25 am

#137 Gerald French

Reading you post, and knowing there are many ppl like you, makes me despair for humanity.

Sad sad little man.

#142 Hot Albertan Money on 07.06.16 at 10:31 am

If YVR was a stock, the shorting would be epic.

So how can we short the RE market?

#143 Alistair on 07.06.16 at 10:32 am

You guys really think a 30% drop would take Vancouver back just one year? Here’s some basic arithmetic. If prices drop by 30%, they need to rise by 42.85715% to get back up to where they dropped from. Have prices risen by 43% over the past year? No. So a 30% drop will wipe out a lot more than one year of price increases, assuming they’ve risen by 30%.

Put another way, the 30% increase over the past year will not cover a 30% drop, because those percentages are based on two different denominators.

I’m not predicting a sudden 30% drop or anything. The point of this example is to show the basic math behind a 30% drop, vs. the previous 30% increase. (I could have used any number for the example.) A 30% drop from today’s higher price is much larger than a 30% increase from last year’s price. Different denominators. Basic math.

Since we’re having fun with math, any guesses how much prices have to rise to recover from a 50% drop? (HINT: It’s a nice, round 3-digit percentage with a one followed by two zeroes.)

#144 robert james on 07.06.16 at 10:34 am

More Vancouver bubble links… http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/27people+buying+blind+home+inspections+drop/12038192/story.html http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/metro+vancouver+home+sales+decline+prices+continue/12037540/story.html

#145 Looney Baloney on 07.06.16 at 10:36 am

Mr. G, how about registering the domain deepdarksecretsofthegreaterfool.ca and publishing those DELETED comments there, so we can share the agony you must experience when screening them?

#146 The Top of Market is IN on 07.06.16 at 10:37 am

“In the City of Toronto itself, the average price of detached houses was nearly $1.26 million — up 19.6 per cent from a year ago but down slightly from the May average price of $1.28 million”

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/sky-high-real-estate-prices-for-june-in-toronto-1.2975166

#147 Ole Doberman on 07.06.16 at 10:41 am

So far there are housing shortages in Toronto, hard to believe this market will ever cool under these circumstances:

http://beta.bnn.ca/toronto-realtors-call-for-action-on-housing-supply-shortage-as-prices-surge-17-1.521813

#148 Candy Halson on 07.06.16 at 10:43 am

Another day of record lows for bond yields. The U.S. 10 and 30 year are 1.37%, 2.14%.

Canada’s even worse with 5, 10 and 30 years 0.52%, 0.96%, 1.56%.

The Bank of Canada must be real happy.

#149 Briana on 07.06.16 at 10:47 am

Apparently, FOMO is now becoming POMO (Pleasure Of Missing Out)!!! Stay tuned folks…BLIP is going for a DIP.

#150 Nelley on 07.06.16 at 10:53 am

#134Lee-over the last 40 yrs, the demographic of Toronto with the greatest % increase (by far) is the poor. If present trends continue, in 2036 Toronto will have a huge % of residents classified as living in poverty.

#151 Nelley on 07.06.16 at 10:56 am

#137Gerald-YES-the lowest prize should be 1 billion US dollars-the whole lottery ticket trip is just a fantasy-might as well make it a good one.

#152 Ace Goodheart on 07.06.16 at 11:01 am

RE: #67 bdwy sktrn

nice try but it’s a fail here.

“the vancouver lot is more than twice the size of the toronto lot. and it’s in near paradise not the deathy boring flat featureless expanse of urban wasteland that is the gta. (locationx3)

if that postage stamp lot is 2m in Toronto the van place should be 3 or 4m.”

I deliberately picked a location (48 Stewart Street, Toronto, Ontario) which is basically “unobtainium” in terms of location.

That semi is located in the middle of Toronto’s King West “fashion district”. The house is not located in the
“boring flat featureless expanse of urban wasteland that is the gta”, it’s directly downtown, right in the middle of some of the most expensive real estate in Canada.

I was trying to give an idea of the difference between a well-located multi million dollar house in Toronto, and one in Vancouver.

It turns out I don’t know very much about Vancouver. The 1.9 million dollar “character home” I chose, I have now discovered, is not very well located and actually has a multi storey condo being built at its rear lot line.

My bad.

#153 james on 07.06.16 at 11:06 am

#110 Smoking Man on 07.05.16 at 11:33 pm

I don’t know what’s going in in university these days but if you want them to come home with psd send them there.
A buddy’s daughter. 21 year old female. Poised to be a doctor when leaving hight school comes home with tattoos and dead buddies.
Broke that girl who overdosed while trying to set up safe injection sights was her pall. In fact she has two other pals that offed them selves.
Shes going through a thought time. Seeing a therapist who goes ape shit whenever this spirt of righteousness mentions the Rothschild’s. The 1 %.
What are they doing to these kids.
The second you see yourself as a victim is the second you will never reach prosperity.
You need to be a stupid idiot to make money. Chase a dream with all you got no matter how stupid. You can’t do that being a victim. You never make it out of the gate.
Look at me. I can’t spell worth a shit. Will I be an amazing writer in the future. Hell ya.
And if I’m not. I had fun trying. But to not try is a tragedy.
Safe spaces make kids kill themselves.
I’ve seen it.
Burn down the schools.

Dr Smoking Man
……………………………………………………………………..
In order to call yourself a doctor you need to be accredited to a university. Therefor you would have been schooled through a university to be able to call your self a doctor, that is unless you were give an honorary doctorate. In your case not likely for either so we can now call you Lying Smoking Man. Just taking a Que from your hero.
BTW It isn’t likely that the university created the problems with your friend daughter. She had issues before she hit the dorm. If you can’t stand the heat get out of the kitchen. University isnt for everyone Smoking Man. Your a prime example, that is why you hate it! “Your mantra is if I can’t do it then its crap and I’ll insult it or degrade it” Again sounds very familiar just like your hero Lying Donald Trump.

#154 45north on 07.06.16 at 11:26 am

simmers: When the 604 loses it’s sheen, the selling will start and it will escalate into a stampede.

blow-off top is a good way of saying it.

#155 Noel on 07.06.16 at 11:30 am

Childish. A fee-based advisor has a fiduciary duty of care for clients. No commissions. — Garth

_____________

Not true. Anyone in Canada (outside of Quebec) can call themselves a ‘fee-based advisor’ and can legally lead their clients into wholly unsuitable investments. There is no ‘duty of care’ as you say. Caveat emptor applies in the world of financial advice.

You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Check out IIROC. — Garth

#156 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.16 at 11:34 am

#120 Gerald French on 07.06.16 at 2:45 am
——————————————————
The $550/child is only for the poorest of families. The money will make a difference in their lives, whether that be giving them an opportunity to buy healthier foods, put their children in sports/arts, and/or give them an opportunity to perhaps leave social housing or rent a bigger space.

Most middle-to-upper middle class families with children are getting about the same amount of money per child that they were getting under the Conservatives.

#157 Bottoms_Up on 07.06.16 at 11:41 am

#110 Smoking Man on 07.05.16 at 11:33 pm
—————————————————-
Mental health issues are a disease with varying severities. People kill themselves all the time, and it is tragic.

The news recently reported on dozens of suicides/attempted suicides in places such as Woodstock and Attawapiskat. These are not even university aged kids.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/woodstock-youth-crisis-1.3617388

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/04/18/how-the-attawapiskat-suicide-crisis-unfolded.html

#158 A Casual Observer on 07.06.16 at 11:43 am

A bad sign

5 UK property funds gate withdrawals. Columbia Threadneedle is the latest.

One’s wealth is all ethereal until it is crystallized into cash. Real estate is particularly non-liquid.

No rate increase; more QE first, then a rate cut, then huge government spending programs.

#159 Pontoon on 07.06.16 at 11:52 am

I’m just sitting back on the porch at my rented home here in Valleyfield and thinking to myself “sorry suckers, I’m not going to be taking out a mortgage so someone who has saved nothing can retire as a millionaire …”

Sorry dude – it’s already happened. Your rent paid the mortgage.

#160 CJBob on 07.06.16 at 12:03 pm

#72 CJBob on 07.05.16 at 9:02 pm
Financial advisors love telling people they will run out of money because more investments means more income for them.
_________________
Childish. A fee-based advisor has a fiduciary duty of care for clients. No commissions. — Garth
_________________
Childish is an odd word here, but your comment is fair, I didn’t mean to imply you Garth, I was talking about [email protected]

Don’t ask a barber if you need a haircut.

Compared with real estate, the financial advisory business is regulated in extremis. I have an absolutely clear-cut and unequivocal duty to put a client’s interests ahead of my own. If I do not, I become only a pathetic blogger. — Garth

#161 Q2 Class 2-B-C-2 Duplex Drive on 07.06.16 at 12:15 pm

What’s FOMO?

#162 Lee on 07.06.16 at 12:23 pm

Pantoon,

Actually, it didn’t. Not if you consider all your carrying costs. Subtract them and then see if the rent pays the mortgage?

#163 macroman on 07.06.16 at 12:31 pm

Garth must be grinning seeing the chickens come home to roost in Britain.

#6 gated fund has Canada Life shutting redemptions for up to 6 months, casual observer.

Thread pic of the feathers maybe one of those chickens.

#164 Noel on 07.06.16 at 12:42 pm

Compared with real estate, the financial advisory business is regulated in extremis. I have an absolutely clear-cut and unequivocal duty to put a client’s interests ahead of my own. If I do not, I become only a pathetic blogger. — Garth
_______________

I’m sure you act appropriately, but most financial advisors in Canada have little training or any desire to do anything but sell products that earn them commission – you refer to them as ‘[email protected]’.

https://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2015/10/22/rules-for-financial-planners-may-be-in-sight-roseman.html

“This is a long-standing state of affairs in Canada. While provincial governments require training and registration for people who want to sell products such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds and insurance, they have no such requirements for those who simply plan to give financial advice and charge clients for their time.”

More evidence you have no idea of which you speak, not knowing the difference between a fee-based and fee-for-service advisor. Stick with whatever your day job is. — Garth

#165 Aggregator on 07.06.16 at 12:45 pm

'People are buying blind': Home inspections drop drastically in no-subjects market

Home inspector Vince Burnett has been in the industry for 17 years and thrived in other red-hot real estate markets. He should be run off his feet these days, but he hasn’t done a single home inspection in two weeks.

As few as 10 per cent of homes sold in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are being inspected before deals close, a number that is drastically down from about 75 per cent a year ago, and an illustration of the latest concern in a sizzling market where some realty firms and mortgage brokers were already worried about a rising number of so-called no-subject offers.

Much like the Tulip Mania, the quality of the asset didn't matter as speculators chased prices higher and higher until they were convinced it was time to sell. And then, just like that, there were no buyers.

Make no mistake, home prices can still run much higher. Even double again within a few years. As long as global investors see Canadian bonds and asset-backed securities as a safe haven compared to negative yielding global bonds, debt service for Canadians will continue to decline.

#166 Aggregator on 07.06.16 at 12:51 pm

#14 Al – So how can we short the yvr housing market? Is it possible?

The best way to short Canada's housing market is to rent.

#167 pwn3d on 07.06.16 at 1:36 pm

146 The Top of Market is IN on 07.06.16 at 10:37 am
“In the City of Toronto itself, the average price of detached houses was nearly $1.26 million — up 19.6 per cent from a year ago but down slightly from the May average price of $1.28 million”

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/sky-high-real-estate-prices-for-june-in-toronto-1.2975166
—————————————
If you had a clue you’d know May is almost always the peak price during the year. It always goes down in June, then again July and August before going back up in the fall.

On another note, I didn’t see any really stupid comments today so I have to ask, was Mark banned?

#168 46 and 2 on 07.06.16 at 1:42 pm

I would be more concerned with the brain trust in Ottawa “considering” the sale of airports to cover infrastructure costs than an RE “meltdown” that if happens, will be a long and slow process downward.

Never forget the phrase “to big to fail”

If you think the the powers that be will allow an accelerated RE market meltdown in any sector you are on drugs.

#169 YVR Update on 07.06.16 at 1:46 pm

We all know that high immigration levels are all about elevating real estate values and inflating stock prices of protected domestic industries (Banks, telecoms, airlines,utilities, etc.). Immigration negatively affects infrastructure capacity and the working Joe/

What did Brexit do?

It killed the Real estate industry in London and negatively affected banks there. Everything else better off.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/henderson-suspends-5-billion-real-estate-fund-on-liquidity

Immigration to Canada has remained static at 0.8% of the population for many years. Without it, we’d be poorer. — Garth

#170 YVR Update on 07.06.16 at 1:49 pm

Compared with real estate, the financial advisory business is regulated in extremis. I have an absolutely clear-cut and unequivocal duty to put a client’s interests ahead of my own. If I do not, I become only a pathetic blogger. — Garth

With respect, then why don’t you acknowledge the impact of foreign money on Vancouver real estate? That’s where your credibility suffers and affects all other aspects of your business.

Foreign buyers have an influence in Van just as they do in the GTA, but they do not ‘make’ the market, nor account for more than single digits of sales. It’s the realtor-fueled meme that some Chinese dude is always waiting to gobble houses that’s created FOMO, along with a good coating of home-grown greed and speculation. Over nine of ten trades are done local-to-local. Sticking with the facts, not surrending to hysteria, is where my unbridled credibility sprouts from. Try it. — Garth

#171 YVR Update on 07.06.16 at 1:53 pm

#147 Ole Doberman on 07.06.16 at 10:41 am
So far there are housing shortages in Toronto, hard to believe this market will ever cool under these circumstances:

—-

Blame the 10 year visitor visa, student visas, TFW visas, and Supervises. Over 1 million issued over last 12 months.

‘Permanent’ (laughable term) has remained more or less the same over the past decade.

#172 macroman on 07.06.16 at 1:56 pm

I forgot….

LAST!

#173 Chaddywack on 07.06.16 at 1:59 pm

@#104 45north

I’d love to know what happened to that guy, but I’ve since moved to Calgary and had to quit that job so I’m not in touch with him anymore. He was trying to get me to buy a condo on W4th and rent it out to students from Alberta…..apparently it was a “can’t lose proposition.”

I still don’t know how the bank apparently gave him almost 100% financing on his west van property.

#174 BOOM! on 07.06.16 at 2:00 pm

Intersting to see the Bone yields fall.

My intermediate and long term bonds went up in price!

Time to sell the long term bonds. There is nowhere to go but ‘uppa, uppa’ in yield from here, hence the bond prices will only go downa, downa.

It has been a GREAT run!!

#175 BOOM! on 07.06.16 at 2:00 pm

bone should be bond.

#176 Lakeshore Losers on 07.06.16 at 2:03 pm

#88 Smoking Man on 07.05.16 at 10:03 pm
Looking at my crystal ball. I see supply and demand.
Vancouver don’t know the market but on the Lakeshore go train line ridership up huge. With out a catalyst on the horizon for rates to go anywhere but down.
Uppa uppa uppa. It doesn’t have to make sence when it comes to Herdonomics.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics
__________________________________________
Ha, ha, ha. Your delusional, I moved from the West Lakeshore area back downtown just because of the constant track delays on the go line. I was also tired of walking over used condoms, roaches and used needles in the edges of the alleys and roads. Could be a nice area in Ten or Twenty years. You’ve got a long way buddy until that area cleans up and gains the wealth of other areas. Keep dreaming.

#177 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 07.06.16 at 2:29 pm

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.16 at 8:16 am

There is no Multiple Listing Service. What there is is a Multiple Listing System developed by REALTORS® to facilitate the collaboration of REALTORS® with one another to achieve their respective clients mutual goals. It is a proprietary system that is a tool we use to better collaborate with one another. It was never intended to have anything to do with the general public. That is why each REALTORS® access to the system is tightly controlled with passwords etc. That portal we created for you to view listings through is NOTHING more than an advertising tool we use to let you know about OUR listings.

I know it’s hard for you to grasp the concept. Apparently the Tribunal gets it which is why they acquiesced to the limits we would not go beyond.

Again you can crash OUR party but it doesn’t mean were gonna dance with you.

#178 Ole Doberman on 07.06.16 at 2:46 pm

Wow Toronto home prices just jumped 16.8% – surreal. No end to the madness.

http://beta.bnn.ca/talent/blame-ontario-liberals-for-runaway-home-prices-urban-planning-expert-1.521973

#179 Insurance Guy on 07.06.16 at 2:51 pm

@ #155 Noel, I work in insurance and can tell you I have seen hundreds of Know Your Client claims filed.

#180 TurnerNation on 07.06.16 at 2:52 pm

Bad sign: watch MIC.TO here boys. She’s struggling.
Kaput?

#181 bill on 07.06.16 at 3:06 pm

Hi Garth
is todays picture one those Norwegian Blues?!?
kinda looked like one to me.
hey DA !
‘its bleeding dead mate!

#182 salonist on 07.06.16 at 3:10 pm

rowing in the pond replete with fountain,wife in tow
4 other houses…wifey asks..how much is all this costing
mr turner, being the astute one…replied he didn’t know

he didn’t have a clue or a shoe.

#183 RentYVR on 07.06.16 at 3:15 pm

Check out this story:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/home-inspections-drop-bidding-wars-1.3665718

Dude buys a $1 mil house in “tony” east van, skips the inspection to make his bid more competitive, wins then finds out it needs $20k worth of repairs just to make it livable for his 2 year old daughter. Sure looks like a million dollar dream home to me!

#184 bdwy sktrn on 07.06.16 at 3:50 pm

That semi is located in the middle of Toronto’s King West “fashion district”. The house is not located in the
that is the gta”, it’s directly downtown…………

————————–
hey thx for the reply, but you missed my point….

ALL of the GTA is a “boring flat featureless expanse of urban wasteland” to a west coaster.

#185 Solomon Grundy on 07.06.16 at 3:50 pm

@ #182 RentYVR

After dropping a cool million on a house, what’s another 20K?

#186 Noel on 07.06.16 at 3:56 pm

#178 Insurance Guy on 07.06.16 at 2:51 pm
@ #155 Noel, I work in insurance and can tell you I have seen hundreds of Know Your Client claims filed.

______________

Sure, but the vast majority of people don’t have enough money to get their own proper advisor, so they ask their bank what they should invest in, get led to an ‘advisor’ at the bank and they get sold products that make the bank the most money.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/hidden-camera-investigation-uncovers-atrocious-investment-advice-1.2553560

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/bmo-financial-planner-gave-seniors-erroneous-advice-1.3504783

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canadas-trouble-with-investment-advisers/article15574647/?page=all

Just admit you cast aspersions on accredited people in an industry you do not understand. Bank branch ‘advisors’ are mutual fund salespeople. You have accomplished nothing here. — Garth

#187 TurnerNation on 07.06.16 at 4:00 pm

#182 RentYVR lolololol check LinkedIn the guy with the million dollar shack is a CFP with IG!

#188 bdwy sktrn on 07.06.16 at 4:18 pm

#182 RentYVR

umm, he purchased possibly the very lowest priced lot in all of vancouver for a mil. The house is a liability on that lot.

go find the very cheapest used car for sale in toronto and count the defects.

#189 D on 07.06.16 at 4:24 pm

#182 RentYVR on 07.06.16 at 3:15 pm

Check out this story:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/home-inspections-drop-bidding-wars-1.3665718

Dude buys a $1 mil house in “tony” east van, skips the inspection to make his bid more competitive, wins then finds out it needs $20k worth of repairs just to make it livable for his 2 year old daughter. Sure looks like a million dollar dream home to me!

…………

$20K only 2% of the purchase price. He’s lucky I bet many people have had it much worse. Hope the dude is not looking for any sympathy. He wont find it on this blog.

#190 jess on 07.06.16 at 4:39 pm

http://theprovince.com/news/local-news/richmond-womans-e-petition-calls-for-end-to-birth-tourism-in-canada

https://petitions.parl.gc.ca/en/Petition/Details?Petition=e-397
=======
Welcome to Maternity Hotel California
A full-service stay inside the Chinese birth tourism boom
By Benjamin Carlson August 19, 2015

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/welcome-to-maternity-hotel-california-20150819#ixzz4DfAonuwH

‘Birth Tourism’ Booming In Bay Area Despite Fed Crackdown
September 25, 2015 11:34 PM

#191 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 07.06.16 at 4:50 pm

I am still waiting for the smart guys to sell their R/E. Have you considered putting your condo up?

BTW, Renzi, the Italian prime minister, should probably be added to the tin hat wearing, bullion-licking types, as he says this in relation to Deutsche Bank, “If this non-performing loan problem is worth one, the question of derivatives at other banks, at big banks, is worth one hundred. This is the ratio: one to one hundred,”

The banking crisis is getting real in Europe. The printing is going to have to get more serious than just negative interest rates to fix Italian and German banks.

The question is not owning real estate as opposed to other assets, but owning it in balance with them. The giant risk people accept is putting too much of their net worth into a property, having little diversification or no Plan B. That is where my Rule of 90 emanates from. Smart people stay in balance. So try to to be a dick. — Garth

#192 RentYVR on 07.06.16 at 5:18 pm

@ D #188 – $20k is what it cost to make “livable”; read the Post story here: http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/home-inspections-drop-drastically-in-no-subjects-market-leaving-buyers-with-horror-stories

It sounds like it needs way way more than $20k to really fix it up .

@ #186….A CFP with IG…yup makes sense to me given all my interactions with both CFPs and IG “advisors”

@ 187 So what? He paid $1mil for a crap house in a crap part of town. Period.

#193 rainclouds on 07.06.16 at 5:19 pm

Mark Cohodes Interview Feb 2015

http://firstadopter.tumblr.com/post/113120015764/interview-with-marc-cohodes-famous-short-seller

“The Canadian real estate market is between a rock and a hard place and their housing market makes 2006-2008 here look like Sunday School. I think Home Capital Group is a great short up there (HCG). They are a subprime lender and sell at 2.2x book. I don’t know how they sell above book at all. They have missed their last 2 quarters and I believe that credit will begin to hit them. Canada’s macro is horrible and to say that there is a housing bubble is an understatement. People admit it’s a bubble, but think it’s too soon to pop. Its amazing how smart everyone is at playing musical chairs, dragging the game out as long as possible will which make the fall that much harder. I know I run the risk of being early, but given their recent quarterly misses under ideal business conditions makes me think that we are close to a significant break at HCG.”

#194 Yitzhak Rabin on 07.06.16 at 5:28 pm

“When the price of a financial asset shoots dramatically higher as the volume of trading thins, the pros head for the exits.”

This should include government bonds. For example, last year there were several days where not 1 trade was executed in Japanese government bonds (it wasn’t a holiday).

Central banks have completely screwed up markets so bad the amount of debt outstanding with a negative yield is growing larger every week.

Eventually someone will have to “own” these bonds instead of front-running central bank QE buying of this junk.

#195 Crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.16 at 5:39 pm

@#176 Devils Headache
“There is no Multiple Listing Service. What there is is a Multiple Listing System….”
******************************************
Wow! That’s splitting hairs.
What else can you Realtors do?
Talk from both sides of your mouth?
Amazing.

#196 Joe2.0 on 07.06.16 at 5:41 pm

I heard the classic empty Vancouver house repercussion story today.
It’s the best ever.
And your paying for it.
Tbc

#197 A and A Sargeant on 07.06.16 at 5:55 pm

In our area, the #1 real estate agent has been listing low prices, with a 10 day hold on offers, culminating in a one-day “offer presentation”. On that day, he accepts offers on several houses, creating a “frenzy” of offers and bidding war for buyers. He says he spends $350,000 in advertising per annum flooding households with these attractive low prices and beautiful drone videos websites. I suppose, one could say this strategy is guaranteed to create an “above-asking” sale, but people were willing to buy $100,000+ “over-asking” without any conditions! One of the agent’s reps. that lives in our area told us they couldn’t pull in any offers in a coveted area of Newmarket, called Summerhill mid-June and now we noticed they did not post “above asking” on 5 houses up the street in the past 2 weeks. We are renting a house, and I’m quite happy to be able to be debt. and mortgage-free, with my affairs in order, and explore investing. Garth, you have been our guide for 5 years now, and we are so grateful. I remember the first post of yours that I read about why RRSPs are not a retirement plan and thought, “Say what?!”. We used them to fund my further education and job change and well, the rest is all on your site.

#198 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 07.06.16 at 5:59 pm

The rule needs to be broken. Too many asset classes are at multi decade and even multi-century extremes, including Bonds, US Stocks, Real estate, Dividend paying everything.

If an asset is in a bubble, there are few reasons to own it, and your advise to hold GTA real estate or any geography in a bubble is not consistent with your crash warning above, not withstanding your rule of 90.

BTW, some people expect to live healthily beyond 90. Constructive criticism is not being a dick, and you brought your holdings into the conversation, not I.

I said I use a condo in DT Toronto for business reasons and it’s dark much of the time. I did not say I own it. — Garth

#199 the Jaguar on 07.06.16 at 8:39 pm

AGGREGATOR – hello. I await your posts.
Can you provide an opinion/update on where you think the residential market is going in Calgary? Appears to be a oversupply of condos coming on line like Brad Lamb’s buildings on 10th & 8th, etc. And why is that huge pit sitting un-attended at the south side of the Peace Bridge? Nothing happening there for a really long time. Helicopters landing at the pad though, and YUL might be correct about the three weekly flights from China and its implications. Seems like you are more on the commercial real estate side of things, but you opinion is always highly valued.

#200 Brazil ex-pat on 07.07.16 at 1:12 pm

Phony “self regulated” foreign ownership numbers to be released shortly in Moldcouver.