Careful

CAREFUL modified

Sick of Brexit yet? Me too. Especially since the topic has ended what used to be civil discourse on this blog. Sad. On Monday I seriously considered shuttering the site, from which I derive no income but considerable abuse. There may even be a better use of my time. My wife. My dog. My bike. My business. Just a hunch, but I surmise there are funner ways to spend hours than reading personal diatribes from bravely anon people who hate me because I challenge their black-white world view.

Patriotism works. But not nationalism, or protectionism. So 19th Century. So dangerous. So unfair of one, exiting generation to handcuff the next. So Trumpian.

But I digress. This is a blog about money, wealth, economic achievement, excess hormones, stupid house prices, dogs and as many sexual innuendos as possible in the pursuit of financial literacy. None of those make you want to sing the national anthem, so let’s keep it there.

Here’s some of what I posted here yesterday about investing in a post-Brexit, low-rate, low-growth world (seems most people missed it because they wanted to shout at me):

  • Markets will absorb the shock – at least in North America – and stabilize not far off current levels. This is not 2008. Not even close.
  • Interest rate hikes are toast. The Bank of England will cut its key rate by at least a half point in early August. The US Fed will not carry out its planned pop in July.
  • Monetary conditions around the world get looser. The Bank of England is already flooding the land with freshly-printed pounds, while the ECB continues to spend billions on bonds every month in a massive stimulus program. The direct beneficiaries of this will not be working-class Brits who seek better incomes, but investors with financial assets gasbagged by new liquidity.
  • Brexit is good for bond holders and likely bad for families. Central banks will paper. Portfolios will recover. Economic growth will falter. Thus the workies, not the wealthy, will pay.

While one day does not mean a lot, in this case it means something. The Dow gained almost 270 points Tuesday, Bay Street added over 150, oil jumped 3.5%, gold shed ten bucks and the loonie improved a little. The Brexit sell-off could be entirely erased in a few more trading sessions (some reasons why are below), making fools of those who bailed on Friday (as usual). Meanwhile Britain’s political morass deepens and the attitudes of its jilted trading partners harden. Yep, the workies, not the wealthy, will pay.

So why have North American markets seemingly absorbed this mess so fast?

First, it’s widely believed central banks will manage this crisis in the same way they dealt with the last nine years – by ensuring the world is sautéed in money. That means more direct stimulus and cheap rates. What Brexit did was wipe away the ability of the US Fed to raise rates this summer, or maybe all year. It will bring a rate cut in the UK, and more negative rates in Europe. Now there’s even been talk of the Fed cutting rates (as impossible as that seemed two weeks ago). All this is honey to investors, who know emergency rates cause middle-class over-borrowing and excessive spending on consumer goods & houses which boosts the profits of corporations, whose borrowing costs are also falling. So when it comes to stocks, up she goes.

Second, as central bankers force down bond yields two things happen. People with bonds in balanced portfolios see the price of their assets rise, which not only offsets temporary stock declines, but delivers a capital gain. Second, why would investors tie up money in government bonds with a pitiful yield when they can buy equity-based assets that pay three times as much in dividends? Or preferred shares handing over five times the cash flow? More reasons these assets should recover quickly, post-Brexit.

Mostly, though, the UK vote on June 23rd was an occurrence, a shock, an unexpected thing like a terrorist attack or a tsunami or wildfire – and not indicative of economic deterioration or financial rot. It was not a Lehman Brothers event. No black swan. No 1929. But it certainly was a miscalculation on the part of global markets, which never believed Britons would be foggy enough to leave. Hence the big selloff on Friday, which extended into Monday. It now looks like most of that came from the desperate reversal of trades, not from worries that Britain will blow up the world.

If there’s a good thing coming out of this, it will be enhanced scrutiny of Donald Trump. Next to him, Brexit’s a burp.

 

244 comments ↓

#1 Harbour on 06.28.16 at 6:27 pm

Senior Turkish official says nearly 50 people killed in attack at Istanbul’s airport.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/2-explosions-rock-istanbul-airport-multiple-people-injured-192803313.html

#2 catbouncers on 06.28.16 at 6:29 pm

Garth

Am thinking maybe a dead cat bounce over next few days….what do you think

#3 Cirdt on 06.28.16 at 6:32 pm

First

#4 rory on 06.28.16 at 6:32 pm

Hey Gt…I do not read most comments but to be fair why not pick on hillary a bit…you know the warmonger, totally corrupt and not really very good at her old job. Throw in the email scandal read and Donnie looks pretty good.

#5 Dave Smith on 06.28.16 at 6:35 pm

Hi Garth,

I say just disable comments on your blog. Then you can continue to help those of us who actually enjoy reading your advice, and stop having to listen to so many nuts spam the comments of every post you make…

#6 Mean Gene on 06.28.16 at 6:36 pm

Maybe it’s time to kibosh comments on the blog… just like this one ;-)

#7 Bob Conolly on 06.28.16 at 6:37 pm

“First, it’s widely believed central banks will manage this crisis in the same way they dealt with the last nine years – by ensuring the world is sautéed in money. That means more direct stimulus and cheap rates”

So at least you agree Garth that the world financial system is in such a failed state that the authorities have to try more of the same….more free and easy credit/debit. ZIRP and beyond is an experiment in failed policy.

Is not that what caused this whole mess in the first place ?

A recovery ?

More madness coming – Einstein must be spinning in his grave. Lets just pump it all up all over again. This is going to end very badly. but somehow the worldwide casinos (aka the stock market) is the place to park your hard earned…..come on that surely is risky no ?

Central Banks are on the way to destroying our current debt based monetary system. They are the prime culprits of why we are in this never ending mess.

But lets cheer every upward move in the markets as signs of recovery….

#8 preferreds? on 06.28.16 at 6:38 pm

I agree with a balanced portfolio, but your portfolio compared to others, tend to be overweight in preferreds.

Do you still maintain your current preferred weightings?

#9 Questions on 06.28.16 at 6:38 pm

Garth,

How are preferred stocks and interest rate movements correlated? At all? Inversely? I get easily confused on this one.

#10 Patricia on 06.28.16 at 6:41 pm

Garth,

Please Don’t shutter the site. For every ignorant, racist dope, there are 3 intelligent people reading your blog. We benefit enormously from your guidance. While we don’t pay anything, we sing your praises across the country.
This is my first time leaving a comment. So yes, it is sucking up to be sure, but we would all be poorer if you shutter the site!

#11 Johnny D on 06.28.16 at 6:45 pm

Canadian Real Estate still up in the air. On one side, lower for longer interest rates… on the other side, a federal government actually paying lip service to overpriced houses and searching for a ‘cure’. Who knows eh?

#12 Doug t on 06.28.16 at 6:50 pm

Don’t hate on the people Garth – hate on the system the world has created. We live in a culture of fear now and people have been inundated with political BS and media BS for so long it has created rage and hopelessness. If I were you I would shut down this site – for your sake and your family.

If so – Adios

#13 AB Boxster on 06.28.16 at 6:51 pm

Garth,
Very sad if comments directed your away are hateful.

It is impossible to agree with everyone all of the time, especially on social and political issues, and passions rise.

However, your financial advice is sound, and over the years I have come to apreciate and respect what you say.
After the global meltdown I had vowed to never to invest in the rigged system again. But following your advice, of balanced and diversified portfolios, I have been successful despite the constant volatility, and I give the credit to you.

I have also tried to instill some of it in my millenial kids, and this will be an ongoing challenge. For some reason they don’t find financial blogs interesting. Whodathunk.

#14 David on 06.28.16 at 6:51 pm

keep up the good work Garth. Thanks for all help.

#15 ED on 06.28.16 at 6:52 pm

The best part about the comments section is seeing you call stupidity what just it is–stupid.

Another thought: As raffles have a math ability test, perhaps a brief emotional intelligence test could be the gatekeeper to the comments section. Anyone mentioning the need for Trump (used to be Ross Perot), for instance, would fail.

#16 S.Bby on 06.28.16 at 6:52 pm

#7 Bob
I have to agree with Bob; we are almost 10 years into this “recovery” and the whole world economy is still on life support. It’s just lurching from one crisis to another and the central banker’s solution is to throw more money onto the pile. When and how does this end? Badly, I suspect.

#17 MSM-Free Zone on 06.28.16 at 6:52 pm

The group “found the Real Estate Council does not consistently make use of the principles and rules that already exist, to effectively deter misconduct and unethical behaviours that impact on the reputation and confidence in the industry,” the report says.

“In some instances, the Real Estate Council interprets its jurisdiction narrowly and appears reluctant to intervene, where it needs to be proactive and authoritative to head off problems earlier”

“It is our view that some industry members voted to council may not fully appreciate that their role is to serve the council’s public interest mandate and not the interests of their peers or local board,” the report says.

http://advisorygroupbc.ca/pdf/IAGfinalreport2016.pdf

#18 wallflower on 06.28.16 at 6:56 pm

I am not sure about there being a 3:1 ratio of intelligent to ignoramus but I feel confident betting the as**ole:human percentage replicates the Vancouver housing trend. Unrelated to each other, but the visual is the same, statistically. Up, up, and away. If housing crashes, do some of the as**oles disappear or do they just mellow? Ha ha ha… okay stopping there.

Did everyone catch
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/chinas-citic-bank-tries-to-seize-real-estate-assets-in-canada/article30637786/

#19 Goldie on 06.28.16 at 6:57 pm

What? Brexit incited a bunch of overblown hysteria? What a surprise! I predicted here a few days ago that it would take two weeks for markets to recover 90% of their value, at a time when others were predicting the beginning of a global recession. I swear, sometimes people seem to seek out reasons to create hysteria in their lives. Now that same crowd, never satiated, will return to their other obsession: Donald Trump; and their belief that he will basically usher in the apocalypse. I feel equal parts contempt and pity for them.

#20 I'm stupid on 06.28.16 at 6:57 pm

Like it or not Brexit and Trump are tied together. Trump being elected will all depend on how well Britain does from now until the election. If Britain is worse off after giving authority the finger, Hilary wins by a landslide. But if they’re better off anything can happen come Election Day.

#21 ExcuseMe on 06.28.16 at 6:57 pm

Now there’s even been talk of the Fed cutting rates (as impossible as that seemed two weeks ago)

——————————————————–

Oh yes, that seemed impossible 2 weeks ago. A lot of people have predicted long ago that the fed next move would be a cut. All along it was a big bluff.

#22 Andrew Woburn on 06.28.16 at 6:58 pm

As Garth says, our next problem is Trump. Here is an article by a leading journalist about: “How American Politics Went Insane”. It’s a long read with a very important message so here’s the Coles notes version for those who won’t have time.

The US Constitution has one huge flaw. In parliamentary democracies, the elected representatives can depose the leader on short notice, Margaret Thatcher for example. Neither Congress nor voters can fire or recall any politician for their political actions. They can impeach for moral turpitude but this is an unwieldy process that usually doesn’t work. US politicians therefore are largely immune to any discipline, even from their own party, during their term of office. They are highly individualistic and only directly accountable to anyone at election time.

This flaw began to be controlled in the 1800’s as the US party system evolved and developed incentives to promote political cooperation such as horsetrading of votes and access to the chairs of powerful committees. A culture of experienced political middlemen arose to help choose and elect candidates and to shape their career paths. Parties raised funds and used them to buy loyalty. The system appears corrupt to us and often was, but the author claims the cost was minor in relation to the benefits of having a functional system.

Ironically, moves in the last few decades to fight political corruption have weakened the system of political carrots and sticks to the point US party organizations are far less effective. Fund raising has largely moved to political action committees beyond the party’s direct control. The drive for transparency means congressional politicians are on Twitter for everything they say and traditional anonymous backroom bi-partisan compromises are nearly impossible.

The party establishments never had real sticks to whip their politicians into line and they now have precious few carrots. Worse, they can do little to protect members from populist revolts. The GOP seems to be deeper in the trap at the moment. The cynical God and two-guns-for-every-tot policies brought out the crazies who now will settle for nothing but a return to the 1800’s and will “primary” any moderate who gets in their way. Politicians know the party cannot save them so they will defy their house leaders to save their own hide, witness the failure of John Boehner.

The Democrats also are not immune to this power decline and maybe the DNC’s obvious crude attempts to railroad Hillary into office were intended to ward off its own left wing insurgents. Bernie’s army could turn into a Dem version of the Tea Party punishing anyone who won’t unconditionally support free education and single-payer health care.

The US political system is largely back to what the Constitution wrote – a direct relationship between voter and candidate. At the very least, the article explains why the Republican establishment cannot restrain Trump. They no longer have sticks, carrots or much of anything else to work with.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/07/how-american-politics-went-insane/485570/

#23 Say What? on 06.28.16 at 7:01 pm

“That means more direct stimulus and cheap rates.” – Garth

——————————————————

For one reason or another, rates will NEVER go up and stimulus will NEVER end. Not until we have a total financial meltdown. This should abundantly clear to everybody by now.

#24 Keith in Calgary on 06.28.16 at 7:02 pm

Nationalism and protectionism only “don’t work” if you are one of the 1%………ask the 100 million Americans and several million Canadians who are unemployed thanks to the crime of globalism.

#25 BeSmartRich on 06.28.16 at 7:03 pm

Garth, please do not ever shut down this website. I consider your blog and writings to be one of the most entertaining things that I read.

I am sure a lot of people have learned a lot from you including myself. People need to open their eyes and minds and you are definitely helping them go through the process.

People of differences of opinions are one of the foundations of this beautiful democratic country. Some probably took it too personally and probably insulted you. Everyone needs to just take it easy. Be respectful. What’s the point of coming to this website everyday and leave hateful comments? No space for ignorant here.

By the way, I bought quite a bit of stocks yesterday. I will buy more during next couple of volatile weeks. It is a wonderful time for investors.

BeSmartRich

#26 Metalhead on 06.28.16 at 7:04 pm

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#27 smartalox on 06.28.16 at 7:04 pm

This is a blog about money, wealth, economic achievement, excess hormones, stupid house prices, dogs and as many sexual innuendos as possible in the pursuit of financial literacy.,

This should be the motto of this blog.

#28 just a dude on 06.28.16 at 7:05 pm

Garth, I don’t bother reading the comments anymore (too much crap for my taste) but I do read your words daily and am grateful for them. I know you don’t like brown nosers so I’ll keep it short and just say thank you and ask that you please keep it up. If you stop writing I don’t know where I’ll turn to for my daily dose of sanity. Cheers

#29 Binder Dundat on 06.28.16 at 7:16 pm

Why don’t you just try disabling comments for a couple weeks and see how it feels? It would give you a much needed mental health break and who knows, you and Dorothy might like it so much you don’t want to go back. We all really appreciate what you do for us here, Garth, and it’s great to encourage open discussion, but if the comments section continues to be a diatribe zone for those with no life, do just cut them off.

Thanks again! I have learned a ton from you.

#30 Jack BeNimble on 06.28.16 at 7:18 pm

Any way to update the comments with thumbs up, thumbs down votes from readers. There are some great site widgets where enough thumbs down automatically minimizes the idiotic vitriol. Not sure if that’s something you’re webmaster can do.

#31 Clide on 06.28.16 at 7:20 pm

DELETED

#32 Brian Ripley on 06.28.16 at 7:24 pm

“shuttering the site” Garth

My suggestion: Weekly posts instead of daily and insist on non-anonymity. That would cut down on mean and frivolous comments and leave a pool of people who do want to engage in difficult topics and are accessible publicly via their online social media outlets. Let the anonymous rabble lurk in the shadows. Otherwise it’s always going to be mob rules.

Anonymity is not freedom of speech. It’s freedom to slur.

Freedom of speech is indeed under attack and those who have the courage to actually speak out are brave individuals indeed.

Here is how Edward Snowden has to get around to remain public:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/06/edward-snowden-life-as-a-robot.html#

#33 Freedom First on 06.28.16 at 7:25 pm

Good to have the Blog back to normal today.

Lots of crazies in the world. Precisely the reason why I share very little in face to face talks. I do find it amusing to read, watch, and listen to the world around me, but the last thing I want to do is to argue with insanity.

#34 greyhound on 06.28.16 at 7:27 pm

Could Mr Turner be the nation’s best photoshopper? Today’s image is absolute genius!

#35 james on 06.28.16 at 7:29 pm

“Patriotism works. But not nationalism, or protectionism. So 19th Century.”

That’s interesting. Japan, Korea, China and Israel disagree. One can have trade and exchange of ideas without the exchange of populations.

The 21st century will see the triumph of ethnic nationalism and religion over secularism and post-modernism. Group selection is an optimal strategy.
Witness the statements of Erdogan to the effect that Turks should have more children. That’s a smart man, well versed in modern politics.

#36 mark r on 06.28.16 at 7:30 pm

Perhaps it’s time to monetize the website and hire a moderator. If I had a doomsday prepper website, I would LOVE to advertise here.

Or is that what your Belfountain is?

#37 Claire on 06.28.16 at 7:31 pm

I was wondering how long it would be before we all got the “Listen up children, I’m only going to say this once” talking to. You limited it to two paragraphs. You have the patience of a saint. St. Garth: the patron saint of greater fools.

#38 Such crap on 06.28.16 at 7:32 pm

What a surprise. You threaten to shut down the blog like a teenage girl that threatens to cut herself, even though we all know your narcissism won’t let you stop blogging. And why get so worked up? Because your readers won’t unanimously give you the echo chamber you crave. You tell some posters to remember they’re guests and act like it. Because they disagreed with you. Wow. Why even have comments then? Just call it a compliments section not a comment section.

You put down people all the time. You’re the worst classist I’ve ever met or read. You call millennials that don’t make literally six figures losers, even when their median wage is below 30k. You put down people because they’re old when they disagree with you. Then you put down others because they’re young and how dare they tell Garth Turner how things are, don’t they know they’re ignorant babies? Of course, this is for when they disagree with you.

Then you use the fact that you rode into parliament on a conservative ticket as the basis for an appeal to authority and expertise argument, when you can’t argue your point otherwise. I’ve seen you put down people many times over the years because they’re anonymous here and what degrees do they have anyway? Have they been an MP like Mr Turner? No? Then stfu.

You disagree with what Yellen says? Garth will tell you you’re dumb and uneducated, how could you possibly be worth listening to instead of blindly trusting an alleged technocrat like the head of the Fed. Oh, what’s that? Alan Greenspan says the worst is yet to come, and the gold standard would be a good idea? Better check his best before date. More ageism. But you’re the bigot, not Garth, because you don’t feel like competing for your job with a desperate third worldwide who will work 80hour weeks to live in a place with indoor toilets.

I’m just sick of how you treat your most engaged blog readers. Overall A+ blog (minus the political propaganda), but a big fat F on manners, Mr Turner.

And btw, before you insult me for being anonymous, I’ve met you at a speech and you were a little lamb in person. And yet you’re such a lion on the Internet, where you have the power of ridicule and censorship. Those in glass houses, and so forth.

#39 TurnerNation on 06.28.16 at 7:32 pm

Unless you are thinking about Brexit or Trump or Terrorism you are committing a ThoughtCrime.
Obey.

#40 Darren Bateman on 06.28.16 at 7:35 pm

Does gold have a future now with more rate cute and heavy money printing? I’m begging you Garth, please let me buy with a clear conscious up to 5% of my portfolio of precious metals.

#41 Nelley on 06.28.16 at 7:36 pm

Garth: I have read your blog for a long time and I have never seen even one example of a poster “abusing” you. Nobody wants to read endless posts of your sycophants-and this isn’t meant to be insulting, abusing, sexist, racist, non-LGBT friendly, non-inclusive, or lacking in beautiful diversity. Cheers.

#42 turn of the tide on 06.28.16 at 7:36 pm

Sorry you had to deal with the abuse but please know that you have literally helped me change my financial life and literacy 180 degrees. Then again, I really study and try to apply what I learn instead of coming here to bash and vent.

Garth, we love you dude! Woof!!

#43 mishuko on 06.28.16 at 7:39 pm

The fact you allow generally all opinions to be spoken (except hate speech thank you) without moderation and even some commentary back is amazing.

Thanks for sharing your insight. Not everyone agrees sure but that’s how we develop our own views and opinions. I can say you help shape my view along with other personalities here. I keep an open mind and am here to learn.

If only everyone could just be…. uhh nevermind emotions usually get the better of people :(

#44 Ace Goodheart on 06.28.16 at 7:41 pm

Sitting behind a computer screen, in one’s basement, with the lights out and the door closed, makes a certain type of person incredibly bold.

Ignore the flamers.

People enjoy reading this blog. And the internet is full of darkened basement nut jobs, who, in some famous words, “couldn’t bust a grape in a fruit fight”.

#45 Victor Y. on 06.28.16 at 7:43 pm

The blog makes lots of sense to interpret what is going on economically. The central banks are in total control && don’t bet against USA in our lifetime. Lesson learnt. Life is short. Enjoy no matter how ironic the finance of today seems like.

#46 WallOfWorry on 06.28.16 at 7:43 pm

The effect on bonds you quite rightly point out almost forces investors into equities. However, we are 7 years into an economic recovery that never amounted to much of a recovery. However, corporations were able to use low interest rates to shore up balance sheets…but we are now seeing a continuing trend of lower growth and declining EPS. The stock market will inflate until it too is an asset bubble waiting to pop….just like real estate. Time for this blog to start being less myopic in believing that Central Bankers know what they are doing by pumping liquidity into markets and that the real estate market is the only market with a lot of risk. We may be on the precipice of high inflation/prolonged low growth…the worst possible combination.

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.16 at 7:45 pm

@#12 Such crap

Your name pretty much sums up your whine.
If you dont like what he has to say ……leave.

Or better yet spend hours per week, days per month, and weeks per year in your own blog site taking endless abuse from jealous , loser, know it alls that dont have a pot to piss in OR a window to throw it out of.
All on your own dime of course, because we dont like pop up ads on your new blog…..
Whats that Crap?
Testicles shriveling at the thought of producing a current event commentary day in and day out , year in and year out for free?
All while anonymous trolls like you piss all over it?
I thought so.
I could keep going with my thoughts about your snotty diatribe but I’d be deleted.

#48 Doug t on 06.28.16 at 7:45 pm

#24 – Nationalism and protectionism only “don’t work” if you are one of the 1%………ask the 100 million Americans and several million Canadians who are unemployed thanks to the crime of globalism.

BINGO – give the man a cigar

#49 Smoking Man on 06.28.16 at 7:49 pm

But I digress. This is a blog about money, wealth, economic achievement, excess hormones, stupid house prices, dogs and as many sexual innuendos as possible in the pursuit of financial literacy. None of those make you want to sing the national anthem, so let’s keep it there.
….

I specificly cum here to read the sexual innuendos and improve my spelling.

#50 Mr. Frugal on 06.28.16 at 7:51 pm

To be fair Garth, you have been quite impolite to many people that comment on this blog. Sometimes it was warranted and sometimes not so much.

#51 Pale Ale on 06.28.16 at 7:52 pm

RE at reasonable prices? Not in our lifetimes it seems.

#52 acdel on 06.28.16 at 8:01 pm

#38 Such crap

—————————————-

Well said; you forgot the part where Garth said we have no life.

I agree A+ on blog, very insightful, many great ideas, but an F on manners, can dish it but cannot take it.

See you!

#53 Catalyst on 06.28.16 at 8:03 pm

I would love if someone can explain how bond buying programs turn into economic stimulus. Who are they buying bonds from and how does that make its way to the economy. If they are borrowing this money to buy bonds, who is it borrowed from?

My biggest curiosity is how can every country be in debt. For every borrower there should be a creditor but i dont think the global balance sheet would balance this way.
Thanks in advance.

#54 The Dude on 06.28.16 at 8:03 pm

For the most part the information on this blog has been useful. I guess if you shut down the blog you can’t say I told you so when Canadian real estate prices correct, if and when interest rates rise. But then again all the factors suggest Vancouver and Toronto prices aren’t going down anytime soon, those who bought when this blog advised against it will still be better off from having purchased. A lot of people have been priced out of the market as demographics shift. Demand is still high relative to supply, and rents are increasing because vacancies rates are low. Sorry to say but Vancouver is no longer the working class town it once was.

#55 RayofLight on 06.28.16 at 8:04 pm

The markets lost their downward momentum about noon yesterday. I went about 15% cash a little over a week ago believing Brext would create some volatility. I spent about 1/3 of in Thursdays head fake, and about 1/3 yesterday early afternoon picking up some SIMO.N, WHR.N & PCLN.N. If you waited to buy to-day, most of the gains are in the opening gap up, and are almost impossible to catch.

#56 White Crock BC on 06.28.16 at 8:04 pm

Binder Dundat on 06.28.16 at 7:16 pm

Why don’t you just try disabling comments for a couple weeks and see how it feels?

==========================

I second the motion.

#57 Nelley on 06.28.16 at 8:06 pm

DELETED

#58 M on 06.28.16 at 8:06 pm

S&P next stop 1800

https://www.google.ca/search?q=s%26p+500+index&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&gws_rd=cr&ei=tA5zV8-SO4bojwSKoLzIBQ

S&P double bottomed in Sept 2015 and again Jan/Feb 2016. The lower lows projected into the late Aug/early Sept is a support arnd 1800. Place yourselves accordingly.

Depending how fast Lady Jannet (OBE?, why not ? Greenspan got it lol) moves with QE infinity it’ll be a dead cat bounce. Since Lady J will move slow, 1800 will become a resistance instead of support and by early January smart people will get really really rich.

:)

Brexit created the mini-low tide which will show us who’s swimming naked amongst European banks.
Draghi will paper it all but the cat will be out of the bag by then…I mean.. how much more -ve the bond yields could go ?

People.. great times for smart investment are ahead of us with 1000 to 10000% profits. As usual..I’m drooling.

..and no..no sympathy for all those companies that now are borrowing to buy their own stocks :)

#59 goddess of Kamsack on 06.28.16 at 8:09 pm

Hang in there Garth, there’s haters everywhere. What you do is both informative and entertaining. There are far more people who feel as I do, than the others.

#60 ROTFL on 06.28.16 at 8:14 pm

Enhanced scrutiny of Donald Trump??? There’s been more newsprint, TV, radio, blogs and tweets about him than any other candidate for office, heck, more than most presidents. Most of it has been critical, much of it funded by deep-pocketed media organizations.

Think Trump’s popularity will fizzle if the masses could just learn a few more things about him? Nope. He is a phenomenon.

The scrutiny is not of the man but the risk he poses to financial markets. How could you miss that? — Garth

#61 Cici on 06.28.16 at 8:22 pm

Please don’t shutter the site Garth…besides the daily entertainment, this blog has taught me a financial thing or two, and my portfolio is growing. Not only that, it’s helped my boyfriend too…he’s saving more than me (less of a spendthrift) and you’ve even calmed his house-horniness…a bit too much now though, as he wants to leave our sweet humble rental duplex abode for a cheapy apartment in a high-rise with a crappy little balcony instead of a backyard…all to save us a meagre $300 a month. I’m going to fight that one though.

If you need to shutter anything, maybe the comments? That way, when the baby comes I’ll have quality bedtime stories to read him (instead of stupid elementary stuff) and still time to bath and feed him, and maybe even get a bit of housework done!! The BF will be ever grateful ;-)

#62 For those about to flop... on 06.28.16 at 8:25 pm

I come here everyday to catch up on things.

I like that there is all different types of people on here and that they take the time to put their thoughts into words.

I work in construction,and yeah you will meet people that don’t mind talking about things going on in the world but a large percentage just wanna have to radio on and would rather talk about draft picks rather than Brexit or interest rates.

Last week I was working on a 6 million dollar house and I could here some guys talking in another room about how it must be worth nearly 2 million…no clue what a house costs in Vancouver and they work in the industry.

Some people have accused Garth of elitism but while he maybe proud of his stature and his past I don’t see it that way.

Why would he let a bum like me catch up on stuff I should have learnt years ago and try to make him smile occasionally with a joke when he is going at it with other posters ,if he didn’t care about the lower income people.

Is Garth more successful in the business world than me…sure.

Does Garth have more money than me…no doubt.

Am I an inferior man than him …no way.

We are just two dudes with loving wives that try to get the most out of each day.He teachers financial lessons ,I teach construction lessons to younger more in experienced people at work,we both get disrespected and both get joy out of someone improving on a certain subject.

There are some competitive people on this blog but I am running my own race on my budget, I am more interested in swapping information than competing with Boom,WULLY,Common sense, OLC and the like.

I buy a few thousand shares at a time,I ain’t gonna change the financial world.Im just standing here pissing in the financial ocean…

M42BC

#63 F.dover on 06.28.16 at 8:26 pm

Garth I used to enjoy your column in the Sunday edition of the Daily News out of Dartmouth N.S. in the late 80’s.

I found this site about a year ago from a commentor’s link somewhere and have been here daily since.

I think that stance you took as an M.P. wanting to report to your constituents was epic, worthy of the Order Of Canada

It’s your ball, if you take it home, the rest of us are sure going to miss your daily take on things of import.

Thanks for all you have done to date.

#64 robert turpin on 06.28.16 at 8:32 pm

dear garth..i very much appreciate all your effort in helping us make good choices..#42 turn of the tide said it very well..woof woof !!

#65 The Great Gazoo on 06.28.16 at 8:38 pm

“On Monday I seriously considered shuttering the site, from which I derive no income but considerable abuse. There may even be a better use of my time. ”

Garth, rather than closing the site , which I fear you may do one day, maybe a reduction in your commitment by dropping the Sunday posts as a first step. If need be, reduce the number of posts per week to a level you are more comfortable with. Be a shame to close it outright.

#66 bigtowne on 06.28.16 at 8:43 pm

Where’s the Beef?

T2 signed up a trade deal for Canada to export beef to Mexico and Canada will lift the Visa requirement on Mexicans visiting Canada starting Dec. 1, 2016…so my fellow citizens and patriots we are witnessing what good government is about.

Diplomacy has ironed out two serious economic issues that will benefit Canada and the dollar cost was very small and that is what government should be doing 24/7.

Government should not be engaging in big broad policy shifts turning night into day at the taxpayer’s expense. Canada’s economy has been kicked in the groin…referring to the oil crash; the currency faltering; and Fort MacMurray fire..so deciding to start exporting cow farts or macrame is not the decision of government. The decision to organize the economy is up to the people of Canada. The government is meant to do what T2 did today facilitate and smooth out wrinkles so Canadian businesses can succeed.

Hey, don’t have a cow.

#67 wallflower on 06.28.16 at 8:43 pm

#38 Such crap on 06.28.16 at 7:32 pm
——
Just WOW.
You ARE an as**ole.
Are you named after one? or did you select your moniker based on your characteristics?

#68 Danoc on 06.28.16 at 8:44 pm

Love the blog enjoy reading it everyday. Never post

Have been reading it for 5 years. 30 years old and this blog has help me make the best financial decisions by renting and investing. we are the only married couple in our friend that are not home owners, instead we have a great financial team with a balanced portfolio and financial freedom that we can travel, easily handle an emergency situations if they occur.

Without this blog my money was with I.G and was never making any money and was thinking of putting all my net worth in a house.

You don’t need the abuse Garth, I agree with getting rid of the comment section

Thanks again for the blog Garth and will be stopping in for an ice cream at the belfountain general store. Ice cream and lattes is right up my wife’s alley and it’s a nice drive from kW :)

#69 Trojan House on 06.28.16 at 8:49 pm

Central Banks around the world have lost any and all ability to “manage” the economy. Whatever they do makes the situation worse, not better. Flooding the markets with billions upon billions of “liquidity” obviously has not worked since it began in 2008. Neither has dropping the interest rate to near zero – instead of getting people to spend, they’ve wiped out savings and encouraged share buybacks by companies and banks who then hoard the cash.

#70 Paul on 06.28.16 at 8:50 pm

Hey Garth
I didn’t know you shaved you beard into a handle bar mustachio!!
But that’s the way to treat them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYRVMQ5sBWY

#71 Nick on 06.28.16 at 8:53 pm

I’ve also said since Thursday that Brexit is good news and the breakup of the EUROPEAN Union even better!!!
A world of trade exists outside the EU.

Media has you thinking “UNCERTAINTY ” but that’s not true. I and every economist knows. It’s basic!

#72 not 1st on 06.28.16 at 8:54 pm

I called the US recession, rate cut and NIRP 6 months ago. Next after that is a dollar crisis and QE4 and sovereign debt is up after that. Book it. Brexits got nothin’ to do with it, just convenient cover.

Besides, when has a govt program ever been rolled back? Never, including QE and bond buying. Too many pigs eat at the trough during these times and the little man pays for it anyway.

#73 april on 06.28.16 at 9:11 pm

Now that the pound is dropping I guess the ex-pats will see a big decline in there British pensions??

#74 TnT on 06.28.16 at 9:12 pm

#38 Such crap on 06.28.16 at 7:32 pm

Hmmm… That’s a bit harsh.

Don’t forget that Garth has a deleted list many pages long of abuse that never make it to the front page plus all the side jabs via email etc.

Thanks for the free advice Garth, I do enjoy the writing style too.

#75 Andrew t on 06.28.16 at 9:16 pm

#38 Such crap on 06.28.16 at 7:32 pm
What a surprise. You threaten to shut down the blog like a teenage girl that threatens to cut herself, even though we all know your narcissism won’t let you stop blogging. And why get so worked up? Because your readers won’t unanimously give you the echo chamber you crave. You tell some posters to remember they’re guests and act like it. Because they disagreed with you. Wow. Why even have comments then? Just call it a compliments section not a comment section.
Etc..
———
Wow. That’s one demented rant.

#76 Debt's Dark Embrace on 06.28.16 at 9:21 pm

Any way to update the comments with thumbs up, thumbs down votes from readers. There are some great site widgets where enough thumbs down automatically minimizes the idiotic vitriol. Not sure if that’s something you’re webmaster can do.

Great idea!

#77 ANON on 06.28.16 at 9:21 pm

The narrative is crumbling, fast. Now the promises upon which it was built will get tested, faster. Other narratives are taking its place, all of them unpleasant. Nobody likes contractions. This is just an observation nothing more.
Finance condensed in a proposition?:
Interest does not exist, for if it did, it would be worthless.

#78 35 Ancient Cheese Moulders In Odourous Miasma on 06.28.16 at 9:25 pm

Have you considered moderators sir? Mods and Janitors with banhammers can wreak significant havoc on ignorant posters ;).

#79 and it's gone on 06.28.16 at 9:27 pm

We all know you can take a little ribbing as a financial advisor from anonymous commenters. Having a few bad days shouldn’t change the idea of most of the readers here about investing, thanks to your solid advice.

For novice investors though this is how the stock market really works in a downturn:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg

#80 Stanislas Berndcastle on 06.28.16 at 9:37 pm

Central Banks hold gold just in case manure hits the fan they can have skin in the game for a return to the gold standard. Can you think of any other reason? For Canada our Central Bank sold all its gold so I don’t know where that leaves us. Interesting gold has risen significantly since the liquidation.

Of course that’s not the reason. Central banks hold a wide variety of currencies, and some hold modest amounts of gold for further diversification. It certainly has zippo to do with backing any money. — Garth

#81 Steve French on 06.28.16 at 9:37 pm

LEAVE SMOKING MAN ALONE!….

#82 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.28.16 at 9:38 pm

the difference between Gartho and u blog dog clowns is that he’s willing to change his outlook based on changes in information. blog dogs are married to a point of view and are only correct by coincidence. except smoky. he’s an alien

#83 New kid on 06.28.16 at 9:38 pm

Don’t shut it down. I am learning after years of doing it wrong. I come to this blog to read what you have to say. I stopped reading the comments a long time ago. Keep up the good work. Thanks again Garth.

#84 NoName on 06.28.16 at 9:39 pm

#63 For those about to flop… on 06.28.16 at 8:25 pm

so obviously you don’t work with hammer and nails, if you are buying 1/2 block at the time. what you do?

(my definition of few, any number between 2 and 6).

#85 Tony on 06.28.16 at 9:41 pm

Garth many of us appreciate and look forward to your blog. I’ve learned a lot over the years. You are a funny witty guy who’s insight while free have been financially beneficial for my family. Thank you Garth for everything.

#86 Smoking Man on 06.28.16 at 9:42 pm

The scrutiny is not of the man but the risk he poses to financial markets. How could you miss that? — Garth
……………………………..

The Herd is a strange animal, unpredictable and pron to self destruction for no rational logical reason.

In order to understand the herd to make good bets, one needs to descend into it’s mind set with all the vises that go with it. Problem in doing so you may never climb back up that black hole to see the light again.

Trump a will destroy financial markets. And I think that is exactly what the herd wants to do, just like they did in London.

They are so disenfranchised, the constant lies in MSM, pissed at the elitist class of PC politicians. They would rather vote with a suicide pencil that stomach another 4 more years of BS.

Life is complicated.

#87 Olive on 06.28.16 at 9:51 pm

Thanks Garth!!! for all your financial insight and quick wit :)

I look forward to your blog every evening.

I’m frustrated about anticipating interest rate increases and Toronto housing boom/bust…right now it seems years off. Sadly I missed out on growing wealth through real estate. Financial prudence did not pay off.

Setting all things aside…thanks for all your efforts.

#88 TurnerNation on 06.28.16 at 9:54 pm

Yes election year means no rate hike only bullish markets. Bush-Clinton cabal (est. 1980) will ruthlessly hold their power grip. RIP Kennedys x3.

#89 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 06.28.16 at 9:55 pm

im i the middle of a big bush..
wha wha wha i thought we were all takin the summer off …
unplug and all
it will all b here when we git back

oh canada

#90 Franco on 06.28.16 at 9:56 pm

Brexit will hurt the British more than any other country. I suspect that by the end of the year this whole Brexit referendum will be scrapped and Boris and Nigel will be a footnote in the history of Britain, if that.

#91 Drunk Citizen on 06.28.16 at 9:58 pm

I’ve heard rumors that after Brexit, Garth has lined up in Vancouver for a chance to buy a cond :)

#92 Catch22 on 06.28.16 at 9:59 pm

Hey Garth- been reading for years, and have always considered the comment section to be informative and generally respectful. It does seem as though a number of trolls have discovered your site, of late. Their sole purpose is to stir the pot; as such, I have to side with a few posters tonight; kill the comments for a couple of weeks. The trolls will likely get bored and move on. Or perhaps only allow comments one day a week? Just a thought. You sound very frustrated and I think you should give yourself a break. Life is too short…

#93 and it's gone on 06.28.16 at 10:00 pm

The scrutiny is not of the man but the risk he poses to financial markets. How could you miss that? — Garth

There is probably a lot of people on this blog that buy gold and hope for this higher risk to financial markets.

With that said what’s the point of keeping an unsustainable scheme going if you can douse it with water, fix the foundation, and start a more sustainable fire. I believe that’s what Trump is about. Its definitely not the status quo of kicking the can down the road, but more about tackling the tough issues and applying solutions (as much as they may be painful for the stock markets etc, in the short term).

The markets are already rebounding from the brexit, my point exactly (not a dead cat bounce fingers crossed).

#94 Balmuto on 06.28.16 at 10:00 pm

I don’t see Brexit actually happening because it means the break-up of the U.K. (Scotland leaves at a minimum). I think more than anything that is what suddenly dawned on Boris Johnson when he emerged looking so glum after the vote and started all his back-peddling. Now the trick is to make it look like he’s respecting the will of the people but in reality is preparing a face-saving way to stay in the E.U. Only Farage seems committed to see this through so unless he wins a lot of seats in an election Britain will take the more prudent course.

The market knows this will all drag out for some time and this will keep a lid on interest rates so we could see the market do quite well over the coming months, but with heightened volatility.

#95 Doug t on 06.28.16 at 10:02 pm

Garth please don’t delete my comment about posting that persons email address – it was wrong to do so – now do the right thing – shut it down

It happened in error and was corrected. — Garth

#96 Tom on 06.28.16 at 10:07 pm

Garth:

I totally enjoy your blog. Please continue.

I was born in Alberta and saw the NEP up close, then I moved to BC and have seen several booms while here. Then in 2008 I moved to Arizona. We purchased a house for $390,000 USD, which was later sold for $230,000 in 2011. Most recent estimates put its value at $300,000 USD. I was protected but that is a different story. I watched as new houses were demolished. Then we moved to Georgia where a high end house in small town Georgia is $325,000 USD. Finally back to BC in January. I was at the open houses and witnessed the lunacy first hand. It took some work but encouraged by your blog I was able to convince my wife to rent. We got an awesome house for $3500 a month. Simple math made this choice simple, memories of bulldozed houses made it right. This “feels” like 2008. Also about 6 weeks ago it was like someone threw a switch. The madness stopped. You can see the worry in the realtors faces. Don’t know what or why but something happened. That feels like the NEP all those years ago. Keep it up. Someone needs to speak against the herd. Maybe you’ll save one person from ruin.

#97 bsallergy on 06.28.16 at 10:08 pm

Pay no attention to the insignificant country behind the curtain.

#98 For those about to flop... on 06.28.16 at 10:09 pm

#85 NoName on 06.28.16 at 9:39 pm
#63 For those about to flop… on 06.28.16 at 8:25 pm

so obviously you don’t work with hammer and nails, if you are buying 1/2 block at the time. what you do?

(my definition of few, any number between 2 and 6).

///////////////////////////////////////

Hey Noname,I don’t invest like a lot of people on here do.

I have two portfolios, one in the Southern Hemisphere that I have been building slowly since I was a kid.
I feed this one monthly.

My portfolio here in Canada, I only started up last year and I do it through a bank so to have as little contact with them as possible I buy in blocks.

Just like people have talked about contributions adding up in TFSAs, I didn’t have one then I decided to use it and the next day I had 35k in my TFSA account.

I had some money saved up for a deposit on a house / condo but have decided not to play that game .
I wanted to switch the money over as quick as possible but the Metrosexual Messiah put a wrench in that plan.

I did put 25k into a non registered account but I think that a lot of things are overvalued so I am just concentrating on my TFSA ,feeding my superannuation account and taking my wife on as many budget holidays as possible.

I don’t wheel and deal,I buy and hold.
This strategy has its flaws but I sleep at night and I am going for slow growth and I’m o.k with 5% return.

My wife uses one of Vancouvers well known money managers and I beat her last year just by being more diversified.

I wonder where I learnt that…

M42BC

#99 ROTFL on 06.28.16 at 10:10 pm

“The scrutiny is not of [Trump] but the risk he poses to financial markets.”

Overblown. You’ve seen what Obama’s been able to accomplish against a hostile Congress and SCOTUS: Almost nothing. You’ve heard the anguished wails about how terrible Obama is for business, and you’ve seen how the S&P 500 has done. When Reagan and Kennedy got shot, the markets barely burped.

How’s this for an oldie but goodie:

“During the most recent U.S. presidential debate, candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton competed over who was against U.S. participation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and who was REALLY against NAFTA. Interestingly, both candidates essentially pledged to, if elected, threaten to withdraw from NAFTA in order to force Canada and Mexico to renegotiate.” — http://opiniojuris.org/2008/02/27/can-president-obama-withdraw-the-us-from-nafta/

Well, that didn’t happen.

The theory that a dealmaker who’s created a multitude of successful businesses (and often structured deals so that others were left holding the bag in the failures) will suddenly become an irrational, market destroying failure is highly suspect. I doubt he’ll make a good President, but I doubt he’ll wreck the place. He has wrecked the GOP. Maybe they’ll rebuild, maybe we’ll get one or more new parties with better talent. I’ve hated the ossified US two party system for decades.

#100 Smoking Man on 06.28.16 at 10:12 pm

#90 Franco on 06.28.16 at 9:56 pm
Brexit will hurt the British more than any other country. I suspect that by the end of the year this whole Brexit referendum will be scrapped and Boris and Nigel will be a footnote in the history of Britain, if that.
……………………

Not sure about that. EU leaders are on record saying they hate democracy, the herd is incapable of rational thought, all polices should be up to us. They kind of right but stupid as shit for saying it.

They can’t get over the nerve of these commoners voting to quit the job so to speak.

EU leaders will do everything in there power to make an example out of the UK. Look out you other minions little countries, this is what happens when you mess with US.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics.

#101 redcoat on 06.28.16 at 10:16 pm

Good blog GT
ignore the riffraff.
ps when is this Article50 being invoked?

my guess is 4 or 5 months out….dunno if markets will like the wait

#102 nonplused on 06.28.16 at 10:30 pm

I don’t mean to be a hater and I do appreciate your efforts and have learned much from this blog and your books. But I’m going to call bull$hit, I’m not sure youcould shut the blog down after investing so much time and love trying to help the misguided souls who come here.

Anyway you’ll have to just get over it if I don’t think Brexit or Trump are the biggest challenges we face (Actually I bet you already did). Heck there is no guarantee Brexit will even happen the spread was only 4 points. That is why we have things like the senate, so we don’t end up with mob rule. I think it’s called the house of Lords in England, not sure but anyway the referendum is not binding so who knows what will happen.

About the only thing I know for sure about the US presidential election is that it proves nobody qualified wants the job. Out of 300 million people they come up with these 2 cartoon characters? Mind you we managed to elect Glamboy and Nutely.

Anyway it’s your site so you can do with it as you wish, but I personally will be saddened when the day finally comes and you close the lid on the laptop for the last time. I guess I will take some solace in the knowledge you’ll have your face in the wind and 108 cubic inches between your legs but that’s it.

#103 Caught on 06.28.16 at 10:32 pm

Trump is already done. He was a joke and nothing more. I think the US market will begin to price in a major Dem victory this summer. S&P 500 to close the year >2300.

#104 WUL on 06.28.16 at 10:37 pm

Turner:

From one cowboy to another, you are just feeling the transitory negative effects of a wet ass and an empty stomach that range riders and the cold string bronc snappers feel every day.

Fork another bronc and ask that the chute be opened.

From Alberta, I support you. Just another 8 second ride.

#105 Westcoast Johnnie on 06.28.16 at 10:39 pm

With the TSX beat up on Friday and down two hundred points on Monday morning and the Dow down almost three hundred, I was picking up bargains. I never would have had the courage to do it without you. I and many others have learned much on this site. Your opinion is educated, thoughtful and welcome by educated, thoughtful people.

#106 Smoking Man on 06.28.16 at 10:46 pm

#103 Caught on 06.28.16 at 10:32 pm
Trump is already done. He was a joke and nothing more. I think the US market will begin to price in a major Dem victory this summer. S&P 500 to close the year >2300.
……………..

He’s a joke to you because you never studied Herdonomics. He’s going to win.

#107 Gramps on 06.28.16 at 10:50 pm

I think that Brexit supporters share your view that the financial markets will only burp. Then carry on.
Economists see this as a bad thing. But the vote shows that they don’t have the final say. Logic alone does not make good policy. Kirk is the Captain, not Spock. Emotional people may not make good financial decisions, but logical people rarely laugh. (Or have pets)

#108 Chris on 06.28.16 at 10:52 pm

Britain would be fine I think. Boris would be the next prime minister I believe . EU says you have got to take the bad with the good. And seriously that comment is exactly what the problem is. Why would an institution exists to bring bad to its member nations. Shouldn’t it be mutually beneficial for everyone for members to have interest in join and stay in? That comment says a whole lot about the EU bureaucrats’ mentality and view.

#109 Shortymac on 06.28.16 at 10:55 pm

You should consider getting another person to moderate comments. No need for you to stretch yourself thin.

Hell, depending on the hours and pay I’ll take it on as a side gig.

#110 Love My Kia on 06.28.16 at 10:56 pm

In all fairness Garth, you have a tendency to be patronizing and condescending when someone challenges your predictions.

Just last week when a poster suggested a vote for Brexit could happen, you dismissed him very harshly that such a referendum outcome would never, EVER happen and would be very quickly forgotten instead of entertaining the possibility that you could be wrong.

I have been following this blog for years and you never once apologize for getting a call wrong, this just being the latest.

If you could lay off on the self-righteous attitude just a wee bit, its a good possibility that you will get some love back.

#111 Ex-Cowtown on 06.28.16 at 10:56 pm

Brexit is a great big meh. The larger issue is that the progressive left is using it to paint anyone who disagrees with it as:

1. Racist

2. Bigot

3. Homophobic

4. Global Warming Non-believer

5. Republican

6. George W. Bush voter

7. Benghazi goof

9. Sexist

And on and on. None of the name calling has anything to do with the real issue: Brits recognized the danger in surrendering their freedom to a group of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.

The EU is in essence a 21st Century Progressive Monarchy not unlike Orwell’s 1984 Big Brother:

1. Unelected

2. Unassailable

3. Irresponsible

4. Intolerant

5. Anti-free speech

6. Imposing Taxation without Representation

7. Intrusive into private lives

Who would not want to be part of this EU Social Experiment?

#112 HH on 06.28.16 at 10:58 pm

I’m horrified you’d consider shuttering the blog. Your greatest strength is speaking economic common sense in an entertaining way. Keep up the good work.

#113 COINTELPRO on 06.28.16 at 11:05 pm

Ironically, a Trump presidency will even benefit you Garth, and the Mexicans (by proxy) even though neither of you deserve it.

#114 BOOM! on 06.28.16 at 11:33 pm

Late to the ‘party line’ tonight.

Busy day. Workers began stripping the old roof off yesterday, new one partly compete. Weatherman is cooperating – thankfully!

Garth- Sure do enjoy your posts, and mostly agree with your view on the world of money, debt, risk, and investing. Boy that balanced portfolio lessens the blows!

Even though not the same country, many of the same issues. Knowledge, fear and greed are universal. As a Boomer, know my life experiences are not the same as those older, or younger, even by as little as a decade! Go out 2 generations, even the language gets weird.

As for the UK – who knows? I suspect your view is correct, however much I might prefer it otherwise.

Life is finite, and ultimately quite short. I would prefer all did what they can to provide an adequate one for themselves, and those they love. -that’s all folks!

M64WI

#115 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 06.28.16 at 11:37 pm

Such crap – you are anonymous. Do you seriously think Garth remembers name and face of every person he meets at a talk? Publish your name if you are saying you are not a coward. Garth lays it out there everyday for free and throws all sorts of jokes out there and may be joking about things and you actually take them seriously. Give your head a shake
. Garth is not out to hurt your feelings or denounce your stock in life or crush your spirit …. unless you really earn it. Lighten up.

OnlyTheBankersLaugh

#116 TRON on 06.28.16 at 11:38 pm

‘What Brexit did was wipe away the ability of the US Fed to raise rates this summer, or maybe all year.’

That’s something that is very telling about the fragile state of the world economy. When one country decides not to be part of a trading union leaves through a democratic vote prevents the ability of the United States of America, the most powerful nation in the world, to raise interest rates.

#117 Lead Paint on 06.28.16 at 11:41 pm

You are being emotional and not thinking straight. If you shut down the blog or comments, how will we learn of every stray thought that passes through Floppy’s mind?

#118 BS on 06.28.16 at 11:42 pm

#66 bigtowne on 06.28.16 at 8:43 pm
Where’s the Beef?

T2 signed up a trade deal for Canada to export beef to Mexico and Canada will lift the Visa requirement on Mexicans visiting Canada starting Dec. 1, 2016…so my fellow citizens and patriots we are witnessing what good government is about.

The reason T2 had the bargaining chip of reversing the Visa requirement for Mexico is because Harper put the Visa requirement in place.

Prior to the Visa requirement Mexicans accounted for more than 25% of refugee claims filed in Canada. Bogus refugee claims cost Canada a lot and displace real refugees.

Also note what is good for beef exports (higher beef prices) is bad for Canadian beef consumers (higher cost for groceries and restaurants). Beef costs have already increased by 25% in the past few years in Canada. Adding Mexico now to the market will keep the price rising.

So Canadians pay for the the bogus refugees and get higher beef costs. That is good government? Only the CBC could spin that better.

#119 Basil Fawlty on 06.28.16 at 11:43 pm

Trump poses risks to financial markets? This is really rich, as the ECB has trillions of bonds at negative interest rates, while they are also purchasing corporate bonds with money printed out of thin air.
You had the rigging of the LIBOR and foreign exchange markets. Deutch Bank settled out of court and implicated four other banks, including the Bank of Scotia, for rigging the precious metals market. The trillions in bailouts to bankrupt banks.
What else? Oh yeah, you have trillions in the USA printed out of thin air and god knows how much of it lent to corporations who have bought back their own stock, pushing the Dow into bubble territory.
All this, plus much more and we are supposed to be worried about Trump? Wake up people the damage is already done!

#120 comments on 06.28.16 at 11:43 pm

I say just disable comments on your blog.

Soapbox speakers need audience to truly enjoy themselves.

#121 Jon B on 06.28.16 at 11:58 pm

Sorry to hear some idiots are unloading their opinions here. In regards to the delay on interest rates in the states, it seems there’s always some reason holding the fed back. All this probably means RE is going to also delay it’s inevitable correction.

#122 six_figure_renter on 06.29.16 at 12:00 am

Hey Garth, i know you said not to read BNN, but this link got sent to me.
This guy is suppose to be an expert on the mortgage industry. HAHAHA

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/6/28/Moves-to-slow-Canadas-housing-market-could-spur-tragic-consequences-mortgage-industry-warns.aspx

#123 balck-white world view on 06.29.16 at 12:03 am

reading personal diatribes from bravely anon people who hate me because I challenge their black-white world view.

People argue with your personal world view, which is defined by your own ideology, leaning towards black-white support of globalist aspirations, money over anything else, at all cost.

Even if it leads to huge wealth gap, which prevents better sharing the extra wealth, created by continuously improving technology and productivity.

Even if the failure to trickle down is becoming the limitation of demand, which is a basic requirement for Capitalism to work better than other economies.

Even if stagnating or decreasing incomes leads to external financing, bridge financing for regular people, or simply taking on increasing debt.

Even if this broken relationship between supply/demand means to keep flooding the world with cheap credit to avoid demands for social, economic change.

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.29.16 at 12:06 am

Keep the blog.
Nuke the comments.

Less stressful.

#125 ROTFL on 06.29.16 at 12:13 am

The greatest ‘winners’ are those in the lower-income brackets who benefit from the inexorable rise in global wealth that enhanced trade brings. Protectionism no longer works. Britain will learn this anew. — Garth

I dug around in the dataset that Branko Milanovic used to make his famous elephant chart of world income growth distribution. I tried to learn enough R to do some charts, but not yet. Anyway, here’s Canada’s numbers. Growth in income from 1988 to 2008, in real, purchasing power parity adjusted dollars (meaning it also accounts for being able to buy more cheap stuff from China at Walmart and Dollarama).

Growth in PPP income, Canada, 1988-2008
Poorest decile 4.5%
2nd 35.7%
3rd 42.6%
4th 46.6%
5th 51.0%
6th 54.1%
7th 53.8%
8th 52.1%
9th 50.4%
richest decile 61.6%

As you can see, we all did OK (except for the miserable bottom 10%), but the 40-90% folks did notably better than 10-30%, and the top 10% did best of all. The average income in the tenth decile in 1988 was 54% higher than in the ninth decile, but by 2008 it was 66% higher. Investable ideas if trends continue: Pitchfork vendors, private security, and wrought iron fence and gate manufacturers.

#126 Linda on 06.29.16 at 12:15 am

Garth, given what you are now predicting & given that most of Europe was flirting with deflation already, does this new reality now mean deflation will be the next international monetary crisis? Our rates are already very low & it seems like North America won’t be able to raise rates for quite some time given what the rest of the world seems to be doing. In fact given how the world is aging I can’t help but believe that low interest rates will be around for the next 20 years or more (vide Japan).

#127 Dispatches from Under the Bridge on 06.29.16 at 12:26 am

“#38 Such crap on 06.28.16 at 7:32 pm ”

The truly interesting thing about people like you that make these kind of arguments is that you crave the cheap foreign made crap at Walmart. Yet you want to bitch that the jobs have been outsourced to the places Walmart sources that cheap shit you buy. I have for thirty-five years or more bought a specific brand of shirts that used to be made in Winnipeg but are now made in China and India. I have some of those shirts that are more than twenty years old and are still in great shape, I have some of the foreign made ones that I’ve already thrown away. The company only ended Canadian production a few years ago.

The Canadian made shirts cost a good deal more than the ones you buy at Walmart but as I’ve expressed had a much longer usefull life than the six months that the Walmart shirts provide. The point being that if you don’t support the businesses making products here in favour of buying the cheap foreign crap you have caused the outsourcing to continue and expand. In addition, as I have depicted, you often are buying something that has to be replaced far more often. So did you really save anything?

This shortsighted foolishness is why the Brexit result. It’s the reason we have so many parasites in office at every level of government. The average person isn’t smart enough to be entrusted with the vote.

On a side note I have a few bucks saved up from my paper routes. I’ve been thinking about some ETFs but I’ve really wanted a couple of puppies since my last dog died. I kind of think the puppies are the better investment. Sure they’ll cost me money instead of making it but they’re puppies. I was petting my nieghbour’s dog the other day and chatting and whatever way the conversation went she asked what the dog gets a lot out of this? or something like that to which I responded, the dogs okay with this, maybe gets something from it but I’m the one deriving all the benefit here. A few minutes petting a dog can turn the worst day into a good one. Any advice Garth?

#128 Smoking Man's Old Man on 06.29.16 at 12:34 am

I would miss this read if you shuttered this blog, but I do think it would be good for your well being.

I totally avoid as much drama as I can in my personal life. The unavoidable stuff that happens is enough for me.

People can be nasty, the secret is to leave them to themselves and invest your time and energy into the ones who create warmth and love in your life.

I would recommend mediation and exercise as well. It’s been a big part of my life for the last 15 years and I’ve never felt better.

Leave the drama for others… :)

#129 not 1st on 06.29.16 at 12:42 am

Garth, maybe, just maybe, you are receiving vitriol on your blog because people remember you as someone who promoted democracy here in Canada while an MP, but then seem to gravitate to support unelected bodies like the FED and EU who have too much authority and influence and no oversight.

#130 Entrepreneur on 06.29.16 at 12:44 am

Some of the comments are extreme in rational thinking but I find most keep to within reason and to a limit. Love the blog, keep us informed and the up-dates.

Whatever you decide do not let Smoking Man take over. He would tell us that all about gambling and how good it is, hehe.

#131 Adam Smith on 06.29.16 at 12:47 am

Scott Adams – writer of Dilbert – has been doing analysis of Trump’s persuasion techniques on his blog since he is a trained hypnotist and that kind of thing interests him. He has currently shut down his comments due to the hateful climate. The internet has certainly become an angrier place recently.

#132 Shawn Allen on 06.29.16 at 1:02 am

Capitulation?

•Interest rate hikes are toast. The Bank of England will cut its key rate by at least a half point in early August. The US Fed will not carry out its planned pop in July.

**************************************
I don’t get why anyone would predict so unequivocally what will happen in the future.

Predicting interest rate movements with certitude has not had much success for anyone has it?

Interest rates keep falling surprising almost everyone.

Brave to try. But also one must own their track record, must’nt one?

#133 Debby on 06.29.16 at 1:15 am

Garth, you’re a sexual innuendo-lovin’ financial dude.. why not sweet talk us about preferred you like, & your thoughts what may happen to them (perpetual & re-sets) if rates actually fall; as well as what will happen if rates rise. Ditto with REITs. mmmm?

#134 Mark on 06.29.16 at 2:20 am

“Yan obtained mortgages from Canadian banks including Bank of Montreal and HSBC. Two of the mortgages Yan took out from HSBC appeared to be for about 100 per cent of home purchase prices, land title records indicate. In such a mortgage, the homebuyer makes little or no down payment to buy property that is almost completely funded by the loan issuer. Financial experts say that in such cases, it is believed the creditor would be providing loans against existing assets owned by the customer.”

http://www.theprovince.com/business/real-estate/chinese+bank+files+suit+over+unpaid+loan/12016376/story.html

Just as Mark has been saying all along, evidence is piling up that the Vancouver RE bubble is on account of the activities of Canadian lenders. In this case, with a Chinese participant with a de facto non-recourse loan. But not on account of suitcases of cash being brought to the table.

How many of these loans are certain nameless banks emitting to keep the bubble propped up? I think there’s a lot of questions that should be answered as to the behavior of certain actors in the Canadian banking system, particularly with subprime lending as seen in this instance. Before we go and start blaming certain ethnicities.

Equally shocking is the comments made on the article already. By people who obviously didn’t even read the article. Claiming money laundering. What’s so hard about the whole concept of *THERE IS NO MONEY*! The article spelled it out in plain English. These were nearly 100% loans. subprimus in extremus. No money from China. Just as the macro data clearly points out.

#135 bonnie on 06.29.16 at 2:22 am

Contrary to garth’s remark, I think brexit is a sign of financial deterioration and economic rot. It’s a sign of how many people are struggling to adapt to a globalized world and are angry about it. It is definitely a phenomenon to watch out for. The political class in Britain totally underestimated it and look where they ended up.

#136 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.29.16 at 2:30 am

Garth, please stop threatening to close the blog down.
You’ve done this many times before.
As for you feeling abused:
Posters have different opinions from your’s.
Get used to it!
Cry baby.

#137 ulsterman on 06.29.16 at 2:30 am

Danco “Have been reading it for 5 years. 30 years old and this blog has help me make the best financial decisions by renting and investing”

You obviously don’t live in Vancouver, because if you’d bought a house with 5-10% down five years ago you’d be looking at a good 100% tax free gain, and lived in your own home without fear of being uprooted at the whim of the owner.

If we are comparing the gain to only your downpayment then your gain could be in the ten-bagger territory.

#138 Go Trump! on 06.29.16 at 2:52 am

Man speaks the truth. Says NAFTA and China trade deals took American manufacturing jobs away. That is the truth.

He will repeal NAFTA. Better for Canada. Then they will have to do something about rampant temporary immigration or else. Now Mexicans don’t need a visa to come to Canada.

Hello cartels!

#139 NoName on 06.29.16 at 3:46 am

#98 For those about to flop…

I never heard of that superannuation fund, interesting how that fund came about. (wiki)

i dont know how other people on this blog invest, but what some are writing is scary, especially goldbugs/preper/doomer type… i do personally know few people that made “big” on re, here and down south but, and what they have in common is investment properties, not principal residence.

we try to feed ours savings as much and as often we can. Only lump sums we do, is tax rebate time (working stiff), but they are never as big. doesn’t help that stuff is as fragmented, but it is what it is. last two years we are trying “brute” force it, thru low growth. but we are no millenialrevolution type “bruteforcers”…

when i come to this comment section i feel like a guy in a middle, i know something is not rght, but i just cant put my finger on it.
http://m.imgur.com/f7LglB5

#140 BillyBob on 06.29.16 at 4:27 am

Whew! It’s not a bubble.

Sez the head economist of…Mortgage Professionals Canada.

lol

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/nothing-to-see-here-mortgage-industry-says-theres-no-housing-bubble-in-canada

And then this…No, No, No…this doesn’t fit the narrative! Everyone knows it’s not really offshore money helping pump 30% pricing gains in Vancouver…and if you suggest some of the offshore flow isn’t legit, well, you’re just a racist.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/nothing-to-see-here-mortgage-industry-says-theres-no-housing-bubble-in-canada

And finally, turns out maybe bankers and economists are sometimes wrong. What?!? Favourite quote:

“Investors may be more worried about the fate of European business without Britain than the fate of British business without Europe.”

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/kevin-libin-the-u-k-s-already-looking-brighter-in-the-post-brexit-turmoil

#141 NoName on 06.29.16 at 4:47 am

#96 Tom on 06.28.16

kennesaw, georgia ???

#142 Son of a Gun on 06.29.16 at 4:56 am

Ok, I knew the threat to shutter the blog will come after the douchbaggery on display here.

Garth, please keep the blog but do one of the following:

1) Shut down the comments section, OR
2) Remove anonymity by linking posters to their FB or other social media pages. Lets see how many Keyboard Ninja’s bail.

#143 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 06.29.16 at 5:51 am

Garth,

Please keep the blog alive. You could probably have students help out with the riff raff down here in steerage (starting with me of course).

Soapbox – started in London…

On the topic of the EU, many would be interested in your position on Turkey joining the EU, adding this great nation to the Schengen Agreement?

#144 Koshy Alex on 06.29.16 at 6:18 am

A quarter of India’s banking capital could just vanish, warns RBI
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/bad-loans-take-toll-on-financial-system-banks-fail-to-tick-right-boxes-in-rbis-stress-test/articleshow/52963879.cms

#145 Smoking Man on 06.29.16 at 6:48 am

You knew it was only a matter of time.

Trending on Twitter #HeterosexualPrideDay
The majority feel like a disadvantaged minority.

#146 blackrobe on 06.29.16 at 6:50 am

I read this blog every morning with my tea, I pour the tea into the pot read and at the bottom oft the page tea is ready. That is the only reason. “Patriotism works”, I don’t think so it is a form of soft bigotry in particular when one refers to themselves as a patriot. Taking credit for something they had no control over like were they were born.

#147 Keith in Calgary on 06.29.16 at 6:54 am

The fed could never raise rates……it just jawboned a lot to try and move the markets. Brexit will be the standard excuse for the next 2-3 years that you will hear until they latch onto another one.

The world financial markets are doomed due to the actions of the bankers we never elected.

#148 Zen Headspace on 06.29.16 at 6:55 am

Re: #38 Such Crap

“I’m just sick of how you treat your most engaged blog readers. Overall A+ blog (minus the political propaganda), but a big fat F on manners, Mr Turner.

And btw, before you insult me for being anonymous, I’ve met you at a speech and you were a little lamb in person. And yet you’re such a lion on the Internet, where you have the power of ridicule and censorship. Those in glass houses, and so forth.”
——————————————————————–

Ha ha! Man, some people just don’t get it. Garth, this is a prime example of why you need to keep this blog, along with the comments section, going. I guess it might be somewhat disheartening to read the insults hurled at you, but it’s so worth it for the joy and amusement (not to mention the air of superiority) it gives to myself and others to see the extent of how rampant the level of moronic stupidity is out there amongst the blog dogs. This is real entertainment. The dumb get dumber. The poor get poorer. The dense get denser. It’s amazing to me how some people just do not get it. I guess that’s the point though. You can give someone the gift of sound advice to save their financial lives, and they just piss on it, argue, and throw themselves into the fire. While ultimately sad (for them), it’s really, really entertaining. You are hilarious. You are the Don Rickles (“Mr. Warmth”) of the financial-political scene. Keep this blog going!
And to the rest of the readers, remember:
Stay balanced. Stay Diversified. Stay liquid. Be water. Heed the wisdom. Garth is a Financial Zen Master.

#149 Larry B on 06.29.16 at 7:03 am

They say those that ignore history are doomed to repeat it. Great Britain pegged their currency too high after WW1 because at the time, it was the national pride at stake. This caused years and years of massive unemployment and economic plight. It did not surprise me that they voted to leave the EU, it was a matter of national pride….fools.

#150 Colleen on 06.29.16 at 7:30 am

#38 Such crap on 06.28.16 at 7:32 pm

Three thumbs up.

#151 Smoking Man on 06.29.16 at 7:41 am

Elitist billionares attitude.
And they wonder why the Herd is so pissed.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/28/its-time-for-the-elites-to-rise-up-against-ignorant-masses-trump-2016-brexit/

#152 ROTFL on 06.29.16 at 7:53 am

#132 Shawn Allen — “I don’t get why anyone would predict so unequivocally what will happen in the future. Predicting interest rate movements with certitude has not had much success for anyone has it?”

I like to think of it as a subtle lesson in investing process. Garth’s model portfolio, rebalanced regularly, is handily outperforming a lump of capital invested according to his macro calls. Moral: Unless you’re George Soros, stick to a process and an allocation that doesn’t rely on your predicting skills.

#153 pBrasseur on 06.29.16 at 8:24 am

Who cares what the effects of Brexit on bonds and other assets are. Seriously, if you are making investment decisions based on that then you are acting as a speculator, not an investor.

Europe is in trouble, we knew that already, as it stands that institution is unsustainable, just likes its composing welfare states. Brexit is just the latest crisis, not the last, there likely will be others in the future, much more serious ones. Hopefully Brexit will be treated as a wakeup call for Europe to start fixing some of its structural problems and as such Brexit should be seen as a potential positive development, certainly not the end of the world. Good news is Angela Merkel seems to want to take the rational approach, unlike the French as usual plagued by emotions and envy.

S&P downgraded UK, big deal, just wait to see what they will do to France once it becomes clear they have no hope in hell of repaying what they owe!

#154 Jenmick on 06.29.16 at 8:35 am

Bloomberg.com
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-28/circle-jan-31-2018-on-the-calendar-that-s-when-fed-hikes-next

Enuff said

#155 Irish Stew on 06.29.16 at 8:37 am

Nice picture.
Took me 5 minutes to even notice there was a dog in it :)

Great articles Garth.
With wisdom comes criticism.
No one can predict world events, but insight is always beneficial to the markets.

#156 busman7 on 06.29.16 at 8:37 am

Patriotism works. But not nationalism, or protectionism. So 19th Century. So dangerous. So unfair of one, exiting generation to handcuff the next. So Trumpian.

Spot on it´s absolutely amazing how so many (supposedly) educated posters can be so stupid!

Don’t shut it down as it makes for laughs of the day, way better than the FOX comedy hour where most must get their news.

#157 pBrasseur on 06.29.16 at 8:42 am

Some should see the big picture here.

The European socialist welfare state model is unsustainable and this will take years to unravel. Europe is and will be incapable of generating enough growth to sustain its socialist welfare model while population ageing takes its toll. What you can expect is slow growth, high unemployment, loose monetary policy and occasional crisis of all kinds, financial, political, social unrest, etc… In short Europe has to learn to live within its means (just like we) and it will be painful.

Brexit is just the lasted manifestation of this, not the cause. To the Brits Europe do not look attractive right now and this is perfectly understandable.

This does not mean however that Europe will crumble and return to the stone age. As an investor all you need to know is that there will still be successful businesses in Europe end lots of opportunities to invest.

#158 Sarahbeth75 on 06.29.16 at 8:47 am

Please don’t stop blogging! The silent majority of us are grateful for your take on these important issues.

We need voices like yours to counter balance the ‘chatter’

#159 farsyd on 06.29.16 at 8:54 am

Garth, suit yourself on continuing this blog for free. I appreciate the time and effort it takes to write daily! I enjoy reading it. I would encourage Facebook (registered commenting), it would remove me from the commenting mix ;) Alternatively shutting down comments altogether. Alternatively registering users and creating your own Garth network. I am sure there are other choices. Its a big wide wacky woolly web. I can’t imagine having to read all of these comments from every Tom, Dick and Harriot. It can’t possibly add value to your life, yet I presume you enjoy it because it continues. Best of luck and I’ll be reading so long as you are writing.

#160 fancy_pants on 06.29.16 at 9:01 am

your points can be summed up into a single word: inflation.
cash is not a friend.

#161 economictsunami on 06.29.16 at 9:04 am

The rise in markets Tuesday was veiled by very thin volume; while the previous selling was both broad and deep.

Your morning Mish:

“Figures from the ONS showed that Europe is gradually becoming a less important destination for UK companies. In 2000, 60% of exports went to other EU countries, but the percentage fell to 58% in 2005, 54% in 2010 and 47% in 2015. …

Taking goods and services together, the share of exports going to the EU, has fallen from 54% to 44%.”

https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/28/no-cherry-picking-says-merkel-risk-of-trade-collapse-says-mish/

If you have Netflix give Requiem for the American Dream a watch.

Brexit has merely given TPTB a boogeyman to pin the deteriorating global economy on but at the same time CB’s are given the green light to intervene and tinker until we hit the proverbial wall.

Productively financial credit/ debt demand from the consumer is becoming less desirable.

This mere fact alone will not stop CBs from providing ever more ‘remedy’ …

PS

Don’t give up on the site Garth, for if you do, all of the Greater Fools that lay in wait to post “FURST!!!” will just become financial zombie fodder for the ruthless speckers out there…

#162 ROTFL on 06.29.16 at 9:04 am

Correction to #125 ROTFL. ‘Poorest decile’ should read lowest income decile, and substitute highest income for richest. I hate it when people conflate accumulated wealth with annual income, and here I’ve made the mistake myself. Sloppy.

#163 BillyBob on 06.29.16 at 9:05 am

Hmmm double-pasted a link, shoulda read like:

And then this…No, No, No…this doesn’t fit the narrative! Everyone knows it’s not really offshore money helping pump 30% pricing gains in Vancouver…and if you suggest some of the offshore flow isn’t legit, well, you’re just a racist.

http://www.reuters.com/article/canada-china-court-idUSL1N19K03D

Also: Smoking Man, guest columnist?

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/letters-save-us-donald-from-the-likes-of-kathleen-wynne

#164 Solojia on 06.29.16 at 9:11 am

Take a long weekend break from the blog or delete some smoking mans BS – either way…

#165 Shawn on 06.29.16 at 9:14 am

Rising Incomes

ROTFL at 125 said:

As you can see, we all did OK (except for the miserable bottom 10%), but the 40-90% folks did notably better than 10-30%, and the top 10% did best of all. The average income in the tenth decile in 1988 was 54% higher than in the ninth decile, but by 2008 it was 66% higher.

********************************************
ROTFL showed statistics.

But it does not matter, people think what they want to think.

With internet one can find support for any view.

To me when I look at the number and size of houses and the cars and the cell phones and the everything it is extremely clear that middle class Canadians are living FAR better than they were 20 years ago, and especially 30 and 40 and fifty years ago. Absolutely no contest for the lauded 1950’s. Yes there is debt but for now at least it is extremely clear to me that living standards are WAY up and have risen each decade. Yes people buy too much. It’s because they CAN.

But again, people think what they want to think.

#166 Bat Flipper on 06.29.16 at 9:18 am

Glad to see you preserved for so long against these ‘youtube comments’. A few suggestions perhaps.

1. Ditch the website and make your own subreddit instead. The comment system is much nicer and will get rid of the crap with down votes/up votes.

2. Podcast. Become the Dave Ramsey of Canada.

3. Make people log in with facebook only profiles to comment. Trust me though, that doesn’t stop some people from commenting racist, bigotted, sexist, etc. comments.

#167 prairiegopher on 06.29.16 at 9:35 am

Garth, do you think any financial good will come from the three stooges summit going on now?

#168 AB Boxster on 06.29.16 at 9:42 am

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/

“David Cameron has warned EU leaders that they must allow migration to be curbed if they want a future deal with Britain over the single market. The prime minister said that the refusal to reform freedom of movement rules during his renegotiations this year lay at the heart of Britain’s decision to leave the EU.”

Huh?

Wasn’t the EU deal presented by Cameron to the British beyond reproach, to be accepted as is, without need of change?

Wasn’t a requirement of controlled immigration the source of all racist and xenophobic labeling by EU lovers?

And to those financial experts (who are not), who were railing that Brexit will be worse for Britain than the global crisis of 2009, well the markets are shrugging off Brexit, as Britain continues to trade with countries all over the world, but controls its destiny and borders while doing so.

Well, their is a significant difference.
There is a lot of pouting going on at the EU and scheming at how to punish the Brits that broke up the party.

Britain will continue to be a great member of the European community, outside the terribly flawed EU, because in the end the EU is not Europe.

Just like the Liberals are not Canada.
And the NDP is not Alberta.
And Obama, and Hillary and Trump are not the USA.

#169 TimL on 06.29.16 at 9:58 am

Would rather see you just nix the comments section rather than stop blogging altogether!

#170 Expat In The US on 06.29.16 at 9:58 am

Please don’t shut down the site. I read it everyday and find it funny and informative. It’s how I start every workday!!

Either shutdown the comments, or introduce a commenting system (if it is possible) allowing us to down-vote the nasty, no value-added comments so they can fall off into oblivion so no-one has to read them.

#171 MF on 06.29.16 at 9:59 am

#5 Dave Smith on 06.28.16 at 6:35 pm
#6 Mean Gene on 06.28.16 at 6:36 pm
#142 Son of a Gun on 06.29.16 at 4:56 am

So let me get this straight. You people comment, voice your opinion, and then suggest that others should not be allowed to comment and voice their opinions?

The discussion on this blog is actually really good if you compare to other outlets/blogs. Nobody is forcing you to read the comments. If you don’t like the comments then maybe stick to the CBC and hear how AMAZING Trudeau is every two hours.

MF

#172 ROTFL on 06.29.16 at 9:59 am

#144 Koshy Alex — “A quarter of India’s banking capital could just vanish, warns RBI”

And it would still be doing better than Europe!

1 year change in market capitalization (so not strictly equal to their capital, but tells you what investors think), Descending by assets, approximately. Figures in bank’s home currency.
HSBC -22%
BNP Paribas -28%
Credit Agricole -44%
Deutsche Bank -54% (and down 85% in ten years!!!)
Barclays -49%
Santander -45%
Soc Gen -34%
BPCE (private)
Royal Bank of Scotland -51%
Lloyds -36%
UBS -37%
Unicredit -21%
ING -38%
Credit Suisse -60%
BBVA -43%
Intesa Sanpaolo -49%

Great savings at Merkel’s Haus of Falling Knives!

#173 pBrasseur on 06.29.16 at 10:01 am

Brexit bad for business?

Not really, markets have nothing to fear from Brexit:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/437224/brexit-united-kingdom-european-union-free-trade-regulation-united-states

Way too early to be making any statement of this nature. — Garth

#174 45north on 06.29.16 at 10:06 am

Mark R: Perhaps it’s time to monetize the website and hire a moderator.

I’m pretty sure Garth has someone to help him but even so it’s pretty much a one-man-band. His policy is to let everybody say what he likes whether it makes any sense. I wouldn’t. I would moderate once a month. Gratis.

#175 Grey Dog on 06.29.16 at 10:06 am

Garth, PLEASE KEEP YOUR PORTION OF THE BLOG GOING!

We were financial idiots until husband 2009 got canned after 33 years with same company, and we took a look at at our RRSPs and savings for retirement. Didn’t know about unregistered investments. Heard the expression let your money work for you…had no clue what that meant. Hence my intensive studies for retirement, Rob Carrick mentioned you one morning in the globe and mail, I believe I’ve been here every day since.

Your wisdom and advice turned our retirement investments around. Honestly if it hadn’t been for you, today, I’d have a fabulous high line of credit and the most Reno,d house in the neighbourhood. Actually that,s not true, all homes in my neighbourhood are always under renovation!

I depend on your blog to help me walk the straight line to retirement and have a decent retirement savings invested, working for us.

When the world’s markets go crazy, your blog calms us all down…we are in for the long term investment.
Please keep blogging, shut down the comments, you need to take Dorothy and Bandit out for more walks around the Caledon area.

You also don’t seem to publish where your talks will be held, my husband and I would like to attend a seminar sometime.

Please keep blogging, shut down the peanut gallery.

#176 Noel on 06.29.16 at 10:09 am

I don’t think there will be a Brexit.

First, its a non-binding referendum. Parliament trumps the leave vote, and the Scottish contingent in gov’t has the authority, both legal and moral, to fight the passage of article 50.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/nicola-sturgeon-new-scottish-referendum-brexit

Second, the sitting gov’t has no leader, and when a new leader is chosen, they could very well run on a platform of ignoring the referendum results – which they are 100% entitled to do – remember this was a non-binding vote.

What percentage of Britons do Rolls-Royce, Jaguar, Barclays, RBS, – major UK based firms of all stripes – employ? How do you think they liked their employee stock holdings fall 20% + the currency depreciation in one day? Good luck if you planned on retiring this year. If article 50 is initiated there will be another sharp decline in the FTSE and the pound, but it will be much more drawn out.

Third, and I think this is the most likely scenario, the new Conservative leader in November delays the passage of article 50 while they hammer away at new EU member trade agreements. They’ll argue that it is unwise to exit without a solid plan for all the various stakeholders. International trade agreements take years to sort out – so under that guise, they’ll rework some wording in the current EU membership status regarding immigration, and remain in the EU.

Ironically, immigration to the UK is going to increase sharply over the next two years as people try to beat the clock to get in. Last year the UK netted about 330k immigrants, estimates are that the following 24 months will see around a million immigrants.

#177 Victor Mannic on 06.29.16 at 10:10 am

Trump will be the best thing to happen to the North American economy since the second world war. Obozo and Trudy McLisp are going to hold hands and talk about ‘climate changey stuff’….for Obozo’s post pres book and talk tour….produced by Spielberg of course…..leaving Trudy with a goofy selfie..

#178 pBrasseur on 06.29.16 at 10:18 am

Way too early to be making any statement of this nature. — Garth

Possibly. But Britain is the inventor of free trade, the US is its largest costumer, the argument that Brexit will lead to more protectionnism is very weak. The opposit is more likely, and more trade means more growth

#179 MF on 06.29.16 at 10:25 am

#149 Larry B on 06.29.16 at 7:03 am

Now wait a second Larry. I am confused. So Brexit caused the pound to weaken and now that is a bad thing? Isn’t that GOOD for exports (or so I have been told). Have I been lied to?

#160 fancy_pants on 06.29.16 at 9:01 am

b..b..but I thought there was NO inflation? That’s what I have been told. Are you saying I have been lied to?

#132 Shawn Allen on 06.29.16 at 1:02 am

I thought the US was doing so well though? Don’t interest rates RISE when economies are doing well? Why are rates negative in Europe? Are you saying I have been lied to?

Somebody please explain this.

MF

#180 tkid on 06.29.16 at 10:26 am

How not to do it?

http://torontolife.com/city/life/spend-generation-manifesto/

Dude in the article needs to save 50%, spend 50%. Instead he’s spending 100%. Nuts.

#181 Yanniel on 06.29.16 at 10:31 am

Garth, you are making a difference for lots of people with your blog. I personally thank you for all the advice given here.

Consider shutting down the comments section, but keep the rest of the blog alive.

I don’t even read the comments and I suspect many other readers skip the comments as well.

Gracias.

Yanniel.

#182 Joe on 06.29.16 at 10:31 am

What would happen if T2 taxed income on houses sold? Wouldn’t that lower the inflation rate in the hot markets?

#183 Long Branch Apprentice on 06.29.16 at 10:46 am

Don’t worry blog dogs,

Your particle board semi in Mississauga will continue to rise in value forever. Go back to the golf course, Costco, Homesense. Your government has everything under control. Keep watching CP24, CTV, reading CBC.

Everything is just fine.

#184 Hatfield McCoy on 06.29.16 at 10:53 am

The selfie ponce gets what he deserves….a comic book.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/justin-trudeau-joins-canadian-superheroes-for-marvel-comics-cover-1.3655625

Our lisping PM is now a ‘super joke’.

#185 Shawn on 06.29.16 at 10:56 am

How Interest Rates Could Rise…

Central banks have a large measure of control to be sure.

But surely the supply and demand for borrowed money has an impact.

Imagine if those with bank deposits withdraw them due to low rates and buy stocks and houses. A savers strike, so to speak. Will that lower the supply of deposits? Actually, no since the seller of the stocks and houses will receive the money in their bank account.

The thing that will push down the supply of deposits is when loans get paid off. When you take out a loan YOU, together with your bank, create a loan and a deposit. A deposit is money. YOU, together with your bank create money when you take out a loan. YOU lower the supply of deposits (money) when you pay off a loan.

Interest rates will rise when and if people start paying down debt or at least slow down the rate of growth in debt.

And that will happen when (or if) people perceive a loan is a bad idea because house prices are expected to fall or they just reach the limit of debt capacity or they lose their job.

At the moment people seem to perceive it is beneficial to borrow for houses and other things. In the case of houses it may be that one day things will turn around quickly. If house prices start to decline for some reason (recession, over supply, borrowing restrictions) then the idea that house prices are bound to rise could fade quickly. Things could snowball to the downside with a borrowers strike. That will lower the supply of deposits and which indirectly could lead to higher interest rates.

It could get ugly but will be entertaining and perhaps possible for those heavy on cash and light on debt and light on the amount of their assets in represented by their house(s).

Perhaps my argument is strange as I am saying that savers have no control over the amount of bank deposits since spending a deposit just transfers that deposit to another bank account. It seems borrowers are the drivers. Borrowers create deposits.

Maybe interest rates should rise when one bank offers a higher deposit rate and deposits flow to that bank.

Savers can help by putting their deposits in the highest interest rate banks that they can find. (Up to the CDIC deposit guarantee of $100,000)

#186 onpar on 06.29.16 at 11:02 am

Garth,
Have you considered using Reddit to relocate the blog? The upvotes/downvotes system will bury the idiots and the best comments can be used to promote healthy discussion. Plus, all the kids are on it and it’s a whole ton of fun!

#187 fancy_pants on 06.29.16 at 11:07 am

at what point do we raise the white flag?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgage-housing-bubble-1.3657598

#188 TRT on 06.29.16 at 11:08 am

So now the talk is the USA will not be raising rates for a long time. May start cutting!

This is all about the 1%ers and their associated industries trying to keep their inflated wealth in asset bubbles (stocks, bonds, RE). All while the working class wages are being diluted by rampant immigration which is we are told “good”.

Zero rates for an extended period is a huge danger. The 1%ers and their associated industries know that. That’s why they will eventually have to inflate their way out. Maybe end up giving helicopter money to Main Street this time.

Then the pigs will be at the trough again.

#189 ROTFL on 06.29.16 at 11:12 am

#179 MF — “Don’t interest rates RISE when economies are doing well?”

Nope, they rise when economies start doing TOO well, and the central bank wants to check inflation. Study this chart, noting the shaded areas indicating recessions:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

With the exceptions of 1962, 1983 and 1993, every time the Fed started raising rates, we eventually got a recession. Lately, the Fed has often had an “oh, crap, too high!” moment and started dropping rates before the recession even officially hit, but usually that wasn’t enough to avoid the recession. The two dodged bullets in 1983 and 1993 led to a declaration of the “great moderation,” the anointing of Bubbles Greenspan as the perfect central banker, and the belief that interest rate and inflation control was a solved problem.

But the Fed always engineered periodic minor recessions to avoid major ones, and we got recessions when it raised rates.

The modern theory that we should raise rates “just to get back to ‘normal'” rather than to cool the economy and trigger a minor recession has no basis in the history of Fed actions and results.

#190 Westvan on 06.29.16 at 11:13 am

Of course that’s not the reason. Central banks hold a wide variety of currencies, and some hold modest amounts of gold for further diversification. It certainly has zippo to do with backing any money. — Garth
———-
Thousands of tons is a modest amount?

#191 TRT on 06.29.16 at 11:15 am

And note the fear mongering by the 1%ers and their associated industries (MSM, financial) the last few months.

Brexit happened. Sky didn’t fall. British working people have their country’s borders back. They can now decide how they regulated trade and immigration now.

Now the 1%ers will start to say “effect of Beexit not yet realized”. Blah blah blah. All BS.

Not even a week has passed. You have no idea what the impact will be. Silly comment. — Garth

#192 Yuus bin Haad on 06.29.16 at 11:15 am

Yes Garth, back to pragmatic advice. Everyone will eventually figure out that nothing has changed, the political elite still rule the roost, and we all need a plan.

#193 Karl hungus on 06.29.16 at 11:18 am

Not sure why you care so much about dividends or yield, total return is the only number that matters.

That’s funny. Most people understand dying with the biggest pile of money is not the goal, but rather a great life-long income. — Garth

#194 Mark on 06.29.16 at 11:30 am

“What percentage of Britons do Rolls-Royce, Jaguar, Barclays, RBS, – major UK based firms of all stripes – employ? “

Those companies — negligible. Just like “large” businesses’ employment in Canada is negligible compared to the numerical employment impact of small business in Canada. Rolls Royce actually benefits through a lower UK pound as they are mostly an exporter from their Derby complex. Jaguar hasn’t been a British for quite a while now (and hasn’t made a decent car since the 1960s). Multinationals like Reckitt Benckiser are exporters and, again, benefit with the lower pound. Most people look at the income their securities generate, not their quoted price, in making a decision to retire or not.

The banks will, of course, suffer in the rising interest rate/higher cost of capital environment the UK is likely to experience. But after such a lengthy period of extravagance, I doubt many in the UK public will shed a single tear for them. The pay packages for bank employees relative to the rest of the economy have been outrageous and have been, as the stock prices indicate, completely divorced from the long-term performance of the firms.

#195 45north on 06.29.16 at 11:31 am

Bob Connolly: it’s widely believed central banks will manage this crisis in the same way they dealt with the last nine years – by ensuring the world is sautéed in money. That means more direct stimulus and cheap rates”

Central Banks are on the way to destroying our current debt based monetary system.

“Central Banks are on the way to destroying our current debt based monetary system.” Which explains the attraction of gold and Bit Coin.

The central banks may not do what is widely believed.

#196 45north on 06.29.16 at 11:34 am

Andrew Woburn: Here is an article by a leading journalist about: “How American Politics Went Insane”. It’s a long read with a very important message so here’s the Coles notes version for those who won’t have time.

that got my attention

#197 Shawn on 06.29.16 at 11:37 am

How Interest Rates Could Rise

Upon reflection to my last post the most likely trigger of higher interest rates will be a sort of lenders strike.

When banks start to fear loan losses they will raise interest rates on loans.

If banks take big losses then their capacity top lend decreases as they must meet minimum investor capital levels (this is different from the cash reserve requirement which is not regulated in Canada).

If investors begin to be scared of bank loan losses then banks have a harder time issuing new shares or even bonds to get capital to keep on lending. They then will raise rates since the supply of lending would dry up.

Banks could start to fear losses if house prices drop or recession arrives. Even with CMHC lower house prices and especially job losses will lead to uninsured loan defaults and even with insured loans there is likely a cost to manage defaults.

#198 conan on 06.29.16 at 11:41 am

I would not shut the comments down. For me, it is the comments that bring me here. I already know what Garth is going to say on the topics of houses and investing. He says it every day. He might jumble up the words, throw in a few thousand colloquialisms , but that is how Garth rolls.

#199 fancy_pants on 06.29.16 at 11:45 am

#86 Smoking Man on 06.28.16 at 9:42 pm
Trump a will destroy financial markets.

sort of … He will just remove the facade that disguises financial markets as healthy. If Republicans win, queue the pointing fingers from the left when the facade crumbles.

If the democrats win, it is status quo, continue selling sunshine to the masses while we approach financial collapse. Most are oblivious or are exercising one of the few freedoms left – pretending skies are blue while enjoying all the rainbows

#200 TurnerNation on 06.29.16 at 11:56 am

Demographics suck. In my 50 years remaining I have but one over reaching goal: keeping myself safe from the impoverished and violent underclass.

No joke. Move further north? Gated compounds? Toronto streets morass into gangdom.

M40ON

#201 Garth M on 06.29.16 at 12:10 pm

Hey, this site is a jewel of the internet. Even more so because of the open comments section. You’ve got all kinds of people on here commenting which is great. Some i agree with, some not. Thanks for the site Garth.

#202 tkid on 06.29.16 at 12:11 pm

Way too early to be making any statement of this nature. — Garth

I dunno Garth. If there was an organization that was the furthest from being organized, it’s the EU. They can’t even decide WHEN Britain must invoke 50; one bunch are ‘now now now’, the next bunch are are ‘like whenever.’

Is it unreasonable to think they’ll be triggering 50 next year?

#203 Ace Goodheart on 06.29.16 at 12:21 pm

RE: #13 AB Boxster: “However, your financial advice is sound, and over the years I have come to apreciate and respect what you say.”

He has a good system of hedging which it makes a lot of sense to follow. If a person diversifies and hedges the way he recommends, it is almost impossible to lose money in the long run. And the blogs are fun to read.

I have never agreed with him with regard to his position on house prices in Toronto. Toronto is still one of the cheapest large cities in the world in which to purchase a house or a condo. People just have to get over their obsession with “prime neighbourhoods” and school districts. Vancouver, well, I don’t live there and it looks ridiculous to me out here, but maybe if I lived there I would understand it.

I think he sometimes takes on very “hot” topics without realizing the sort of feedback he is going to get. We all know how the internet works. Anyone with a hook up, who lives in their parents’ basement and has a lot of time on their hands, can become the king or queen of blog-flaming.

#204 Michael on 06.29.16 at 12:24 pm

“This is a blog about money, wealth, economic achievement, excess hormones, stupid house prices, dogs and as many sexual innuendos as possible in the pursuit of financial literacy”

So you are the Top Gear of the financial literacy world then!?

Please don’t shut the site – I look forward to my daily reminder that I need to sort my finances out and grow up a bit!

#205 pinstripe on 06.29.16 at 12:32 pm

The coffee shop geezers are very pleased how the global events are unfolding. There are some Leaders on this planet and at some point they are firm on Enough is ENOUGH.

Brexit, Bernnie, Trump have made massive steps to expose the workings of the System and all the manipulation and corruption within that System. The system is RIGGED to crush any policy that challenges the establishment. The establishment are proud to express their higher level thinking but yet the SMART working people can identify that no common sense is applied to the policies.

#206 Shawn on 06.29.16 at 12:33 pm

Interest Rates

MF at 179 asked me:

#132 Shawn Allen on 06.29.16 at 1:02 am

I thought the US was doing so well though? Don’t interest rates RISE when economies are doing well? Why are rates negative in Europe? Are you saying I have been lied to?

Somebody please explain this.

*************************************
Perhaps interest rates NORMALLY rise when an economy improves, ALL ELSE EQUAL.

But it is not like a physical law.

All else never is equal.

The U.S. economy has been improving but is not considered to be robust enough for an increase.

The interest rate policies of other countries have an impact.

The movement of interest rates is simply not predictable like the movement of the planets. Certainly most analysts and certainly the government statistic providers are not lieing. Being wrong is not a lie.

But you apparently wish to believe that the U.S. economy is not improving. You will easily find support for that view as others will find support for the opposite.

Whatever you wish to believe: “There’s a stat for that.” as well as a thousand web sites and articles.

Elvis lives… The moon landing was faked. Unemployment is 40%. The system in rigged against you. The only true money is Gold. There is plenty of support for just about any opinion you wish to hold.

#207 Josh on 06.29.16 at 12:40 pm

Haters gonna hate (just ask T-Swift). Keep up the good work, Garth.

Cheers
Josh

#208 Maggie the Teck Writer on 06.29.16 at 12:41 pm

#38 Such Crap

You clearly don’t like it here. So why don’t you go away and stay away?

If you insist on returning, some of us would appreciate your retaining your current user name. That would allow us to avoid any future contact with your petulance and bad manners.

#209 Shawn on 06.29.16 at 12:43 pm

Why Are Deposit Rates Negative in Europe, MF asked?

Good question. It would seem that banks don’t want deposits. That might be because they can’t find worthy borrowers.

Big corporations can’t exactly walk in and ask for their $200 million in 2 million $100 euro bills. The storage risk is too great. And you can’t electronically transfer paper money. So depositors put up with negative rates.

So negative deposit rates (there are no negative rates for borrowers) are caused by a lack of demand for loans it seems. Which suggests a low or negative growth economy in Europe.

Perhaps the economy is so mature that very few new projects need to be built and financed at this time.

When the glut of deposits is used to pay off loans then perhaps banks will need to pay positive rates to attract the smaller pool of remaining deposits.

Maybe negative deposit rates is the natural end game when some few parties own all the deposits and many others owe all the loans. Borrowers tapped out and no one left to lend to. Hence no demand for deposits.

#210 Mark on 06.29.16 at 12:45 pm

“When banks start to fear loan losses they will raise interest rates on loans.”

Precisely Shawn. And they do this when the banks perceive that there are falling prices on the collateral that backs the loans. Prices, of course, being a way that the market reflects the real time supply and demand balance. Oceans of new supply stimulated by the housing bubble and low rates are now coming back to haunt the Canadian housing sector.

Just as rising prices suppressed interest rates on account of lenders being comfortable that their security interests in real property could be redeemed for their full face value + interest + liquidated damages when applicable (ie: interest rate differentials), the other side of the cycle exposes the spectre of the lenders demanding additional risk premia over and above current levels to incorporate the increasing probability of loss including adverse interest rate risk. The spiral of upward prices and falling rates will thus give way to a spiral of downward prices and rising risk premia.

We’ve already been seeing this happen, albeit at a relatively glacial pace, over the past 3 years. The most noticeable to the “retail” borrower has been the expansion of the “spread” between the BoC policy rate and the “Prime” rate which is used by the banks as a reference for retail loan rates. Those “Prime – 1%” specials that were ubiquitous during the heyday of the Canadian RE bubble have all but disappeared. Prices are stagnating/falling in the major cities, and are explicitly falling in the lesser cities.

#211 CJBob on 06.29.16 at 1:26 pm

#210 Mark on 06.29.16 at 12:45 pm
…[Real Estate] Prices are stagnating/falling in the major cities, and are explicitly falling in the lesser cities.
___________________
No need to legalize weed, just get me some of what Mark is on. Seriously. The increases in prices in Mississauga (population wise a major city, culturally not so much) over the past few years are absolutely staggering.

#212 ROTFL on 06.29.16 at 2:11 pm

#197 Shawn — “When banks start to fear loan losses they will raise interest rates on loans.”

That’s textbook, but my experience says it isn’t true. Here’s the former CEO of TD, for example:

“The reality is it’s not like we don’t offer 25-year amortization mortgages or 20-year amortization mortgages. People can pick their amortization periods. But if you offer them more choice, overwhelmingly they will choose the longer period, and so the question, is would one bank say, ‘Well, I don’t care what you want; we’re going to only offer 20-year amortization mortgages,’ while everyone else offers a 30-year amortization? We know what would happen – TD would no longer be issuing mortgages and everyone will go across the street. That’s what the public has said by the way they act.”

Mr. Clark made the comments during a discussion with former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge last month in Toronto. […] Underlying the Bank of Canada’s concern, Mr. Clark has said publicly that the maximum amortization period for home loans should be lowered to 25 years and that Ottawa should implement a qualifying rate, which would lower the default risk when official borrowing rates eventually rise.”

i.e. We don’t really want to do these loans, but if you let the other banks do them, we’ll do them too. Please tighten the regulations!

Interestingly, Scotiabank has recently said that they’ve dialed back mortgage lending in Toronto and Vancouver. Brave and unusual, in my experience.

#213 Move on VREU on 06.29.16 at 2:14 pm

Hey, where is VREU?

Its time to circle back to her homemade and dated price charts.

How’s the cooling of the market in Victoria since April as predicted, following the implementation of the new down payment rules? No going as you figured? Yes, perhaps the scourge of foreign capital is here to stay and all real estate in Canada is a global commodity.

:)

#214 Julie K. on 06.29.16 at 2:29 pm

No need to worry.

About anything.

Especially Garth leaving us high and dry.

As brilliant and iconic as Garth truly is, the occasional wondering out loud about ‘Greater Fool’ is only his ego seeking validation.

It is his Achilles heel.

He seeks our validation.

He needs us as much as we need him.

#215 Doug on 06.29.16 at 2:30 pm

Publish this or not. You could kill the comments section for a month or two (that would give you July and August holidays for ice cream, motorcylces, wife and dog).

#216 meslippery on 06.29.16 at 3:13 pm

116 TRON on 06.28.16 at 11:38 pm

‘What Brexit did was wipe away the ability of the US Fed to raise rates this summer, or maybe all year.’

That’s something that is very telling about the fragile state of the world economy. When one country decides not to be part of a trading union leaves through a democratic vote prevents the ability of the United States of America, the most powerful nation in the world, to raise interest rates.

Yeah most people would want lower taxes.
Why would you want high interest rates?
If you need income Garth will get you 6-7%
I would suggest location has more to do with house
prices. Windsor is not crazy priced.

#217 conan on 06.29.16 at 3:29 pm

So that is what the latest K-9 Dobieomatic looks like. Looks like the women is wearing anti Dobieomatic under armor beneath her yoga pants.

I have no idea what type of fruit she is grabbing for……. anyone?

#218 family beagle on 06.29.16 at 3:36 pm

Reality check… It’s a user modified database indicated by a uniform resource locator and events aren’t updated in real time. Data is uploaded by the administrator and accessed by internet users, who can input text to an associated database. Cool.

The issues, emotions, agendas, soapbox monologues, diatribes, and rhetoric are human spin. How delightful.

The question: To tolerate humans or not? The answer may have been best summerized by Christopher McCandless whilst dying of starvation, alone, on Bus 142 in the Alaskan tundra…

“Happiness is only real when shared.”

As our host strives for the sweet nectar of shared joy, some will exploit the vulnerability. This is life. The best teachers are reluctant for good reason and often called to task.

#219 salonist on 06.29.16 at 3:38 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3T1c7GkzRQQ

#220 family beagle on 06.29.16 at 3:40 pm

#217 conan on 06.29.16 at 3:29 pm
So that is what the latest K-9 Dobieomatic looks like. Looks like the women is wearing anti Dobieomatic under armor beneath her yoga pants.

I have no idea what type of fruit she is grabbing for……. anyone?

Papaya

#221 salonist on 06.29.16 at 4:01 pm

bank of china to offer mortgages in canada

#222 NewBie on 06.29.16 at 4:09 pm

For the 40 fixed / 60 growth portfolio, I understand 17% out of the 60% growth should be Canadian. In the 40% fixed income portion, can Garth or anyone please tell me how many percentage points should be Canadian?

Thanks

#223 Smartalox on 06.29.16 at 4:14 pm

BC Realtors to lose the right of self-regulation:

from the article:
Ms. Clark said the real estate industry has had a decade to figure out how to govern itself, but it has failed.

“The point of regulations to protect people, to protect consumers,” the premier told a news conference in Vancouver.

“It is not a right. Self-regulation is very much a privilege.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/bc-premier-christy-clark-says-change-coming-to-real-estate-industry/article30681945/

#224 economictsunami on 06.29.16 at 4:16 pm

ROSENBERG: One of Canada’s biggest housing markets is in an ‘outright bubble’

http://www.businessinsider.com/rosenberg-vancouvers-housing-market-is-in-an-outright-bubble-2016-6

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-06-29/rosenberg-vancouver-housing-market-in-outright-bubble

#225 rainclouds on 06.29.16 at 4:37 pm

#223 Smartalox“The point of regulations to protect people, to protect consumers,” the premier told a news conference in Vancouver.

Yes but who is gonna protect us from her? Oh wait, election in 11 months! Our choice, Bolsheviks VS Sleaze Party……at least we have a robust press to keep their feet to the fire bwahhhha :-)

#226 Lee on 06.29.16 at 4:38 pm

#222,

I think Garth has repeatedly said all the fixed should be Maple.

#227 Entrepreneur on 06.29.16 at 4:53 pm

When a comment expresses him/her self with different views/emotions that should be a compliment as taught to me (that thought/criticism is a learning tool to look at/correct/improve). #38 Such Crap should be respected (even if disagree, not put down) with his/her viewpoint. We all learn from it.

I agree with #215 Doug…take the summer off, time for a break, we get breaks. You (and family) need a nice, long get-away. But, but could you leave someone to monitor for us, what are we now, winners.

#168 AB Boxter…how the parties are not the country, last paragraph. I am starting to like Trump, not so much his issues, but his conviction, his conviction for the people of the land. Have to give him credit for that.

Bwts, I do not agree with him supporting the gun lobbyist because the nut cases shooting mass people are buying weapons right in your own country and to me that is the problem, that is like shooting your own foot.

Also, the right to defend yourself seems to me a little carried away with rifles that shoot multiply times. The sporting stores are selling them up here now and if anyone carrying one of those I would think that person is a trouble person and/or looking for trouble. Having a few rules in place to combat upscale technology is not taking away the right to defend; otherwise, you are asking for more of the same.

Thanks for the GT blog, enjoy the interaction of so many bloggers, and enjoy putting my five cents in.

#228 Voice on 06.29.16 at 5:05 pm

https://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2016/06/29/the-one-quick-way-to-cool-the-gta-housing-market-mayers.html

Use the TAX (foreign money) , instead of Canadians hard earned money to fix the road and other infrastructures which were not designed for such a rapid increased population.
“What a disappointment. The infrastructures are far behind Dubai, China, and other places…” Canadians are struggling to balance between food and roof. How sad…

#229 Mr. Frugal on 06.29.16 at 5:17 pm

Not even a week has passed. You have no idea what the impact will be. Silly comment. — Garth

—————————————————

The market says otherwise. Brexit is a non-event.

#230 NewBie on 06.29.16 at 5:44 pm

#226 Lee on 06.29.16 at 4:38 pm
#222,

I think Garth has repeatedly said all the fixed should be Maple.

Thanks for your input but really? That means 40 + 17 = 57% of your entire portfolio is in Canadian, this does not sound like geographically diversified. Can someone also please comment on this?

#231 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.29.16 at 5:59 pm

6:pm and still no post from Garth!
Repent sinners and haters.
Or the End is Nigh!

#232 Shawn on 06.29.16 at 6:03 pm

The Right to Bear Machine Guns?

Entrepreneur at 227 said:

Also, the right to defend yourself seems to me a little carried away with rifles that shoot multiply times.

*************************************

Agreed. The gun lobby in the U.S. wants the right to bear machine guns. What are assault rifles that fire dozens of bullets without reloading, if not machine guns?

There is no excuse for these weapons for hunting and none for defence.

I would judge anyone buying one to be extremely dangerous by definition. And quite possibly mentally disturbed.

#233 Larry Laffer on 06.29.16 at 6:20 pm

#226 Lee
I think Garth has repeatedly said all the fixed should be Maple.

For bonds yes, but for preferreds I remember Garth at one time suggesting XPF, which is ~50% US, where interest rates were expected to rise in the upcoming years. (Underlying holding of XPF is PFF, should you want to buy it directly.)

Or you could stay 100% maple with ZPR, CPD or HPR.

#234 NoName on 06.29.16 at 6:29 pm

#227 Entrepreneur on 06.29.16 at 4:53 pm
#231 Shawn on 06.29.16 at 6:03 pm

i would like to ask you guys is this gun as dangerous and does it make you mentally disturbed if you acquire it?
i would appreciate an answer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winchester_Model_1894

and this in a country where “assault rifle” are prohibited.
Charlie Hebdo shooting
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2015_%C3%8Ele-de-France_attacks

#235 Shawn on 06.29.16 at 6:36 pm

Newbie and Diversification

The sometimes offered notion that a diversified portfolio should match Canada’s percentage of world GDP (3%?) is absolutely silly unless you intend to also do only 3% of your spending in Canada.

There simply is no right answer to your question about the correct percentage of “Maple”. It’s a judgement call. Seek paid advice. Arrive at a number you are comfortable with. Later you are sure to wish it was higher at some point in time and sure to wish it was lower at some other point in time. The best you can hope for is that over a long period of years you wished it was higher around the same amount of time you wished it was lower.

Get a paid advisor. That way you will have someone to blame for not picking the best number (which was never possible).

There are no simple answers to complex questions involving uncertainty.

#236 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.29.16 at 6:38 pm

@#166 Bat Flipper
“Make people log in with facebook only profiles to comment….”
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Fortunately (or unfortunately) some of us cant be bothered with the on line “mastubatory” experience of Facebook and the aptly named “twit”-er……

Just nuke the comments section.

It would free up a great deal of Garths time not regulating the comments and we’d still get the bonus of Utterances from on High that we are so obviously addicted to.

#237 Paul on 06.29.16 at 6:46 pm

232 Shawn
Machine guns are illegal and have been most likely before you were born.

#238 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.29.16 at 6:55 pm

@#232 Shawn.
“What are assault rifles that fire dozens of bullets without reloading, if not machine guns?
There is no excuse for these weapons for hunting and none for defence.
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Ignorance is bliss.

Actually, while I’m not a gun owner OR a proponent of the Assault rifles sold in the States….
Semi automatic ( a firearm that will fire one bullet for each pull of the trigger) rifles are legally sold in Canada for hunting.
If you have ever spoken to a deer/elk/moose/ungulate hunter ….they dont always kill with the first shot and a second, third or 4th may be required if the animal is unwounded and moving fast.

That being said. Even after a deer has been killed the hunter may need his firearm for self preservation as several “predator bear/human” attacks have occured with more and more frequency in the western provinces over the past 5 years.

Bears seem to have clued in that a gunshot=food.

And if you had a hungry 800lb claws, teeth and fang Momma grizzly charging you at 30mph…….you’ll wish you had a machine gun instead of a semiauto and a spare supply of Depends….

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/26/bc-hunters-mauled-by-grizzly-meet-the-team-who-saved-them.html&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiWk7zsqc7NAhVN6WMKHbAYA2IQFggkMAM&usg=AFQjCNFZFaSFpP_UzxSz1vdTsCnHUOKeHQ

#239 Scott on 06.29.16 at 7:04 pm

One thing people don’t realize about the E.U. Is that it is essentially a Catholic organization,something since Henry the 8th the English have been trying to avoid. It is just not a natural fit for them.

#240 Hana Smits on 06.29.16 at 7:07 pm

I regard someone mentally disturbed that feels entitled to low interest rates and piling up debt until their is no tomorrow.

#241 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.29.16 at 7:27 pm

@#239 Scott
“One thing people don’t realize about the E.U. Is that it is essentially a Catholic organization….”
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Well

I can truly say that I havent heard THAT bizarre “theory” yet.
Has anyone informed the Pope?

Scott’s “out there” supposition.

Demonstrative proof that some people shouldnt be allowed near a keyboard…..ever.

#242 Ignore the comments on 06.29.16 at 7:28 pm

Your advice is appreciated. Don’t worry about the comments, I don’t think most people read more than the first few anyways.

#243 Rick on 06.29.16 at 8:54 pm

So you show a few hockey stick graphs that prove housing is unsustainable. How about I send you a few of the same rhino horn graphs on personal debt levels, goverment spending, go ernment debt, private bank money creation, and derrivitives creation. That wont implode but housing will?? Insanity!

#244 Jasmine Cowen on 06.30.16 at 11:19 am

So sorry to hear about the hateful comments directed at you and your blog. Kind of reflects those bigoted loudmouths that created the whole Brexit debacle in the first place. I love your blog and there would be a hole in my life if you shut it down! Not to mention my financial literacy would plummet. Maybe just get rid of the comment section? As a daily reader, please don’t leave!! I’ve never voted Conservative in my life (NDP forever) but I would definitely vote for you, Garth! Don’t let the jerks get you down!