Now what?

EUROPE SIGN modified

What will Brexit mean to you? Your investments? Your house? Your mortgage?

So far, we know this: Stock markets in North American have shed about 6% of their value over two sessions. Sucks, but not a crisis. The losses on Day Two were one quarter of Day One, and those people with a balanced portfolio have seen a big boost in bond prices which helped offset the equity plop. Nobody should sell into a storm, especially one caused by an unexpected event, not economic rot.

But there are other things more vexing to Canadians. Oil has tumbled from $51 a few weeks ago to $46 now, a 10% decline we didn’t need. Add in the Fort Mac wildfires, and it’s likely our economic growth will barely move the needle in 2016. Brexit not only accentuates the commodity rout (the US dollar goes higher and demand for energy falls as Europe weakens), but also hurts our UK-bound exports.

Here’s what TD Economics thinks: “Based on our model simulations, we estimate that confidence and financial spillovers from a leave result could shave about 0.5 to 1.0 percentage point off GDP growth for the U.S. and Canada in the second half of 2016, driven mainly by an expected reduction in business investment growth as a result of a rise in global economic uncertainty.”

So the currency goes down. The loonie now struggles to stay above 76 cents, shedding all of the gains made since the winter lows. Remember all the $8 Cauliflower Angst on this blog? Like a fetid veggie, it’s coming back.

Here are some reasonable conclusions:

First, markets will absorb the shock – at least in North America – and stabilize not far off current levels. This is not 2008. Not even close. The Brits are eviscerating themselves, casting serious doubt on the future of the biggest free trade zone at a time of slow and wobbly global growth. That’s all serious, but no apocalypse. China benefits and ultimately the US as well. This is digestible. If your investments are balanced and diversified, leave them alone.

Second, interest rate hikes are toast. The Bank of England will cut its key rate by at least a half point in early August. The US Fed will not carry out its planned pop in July. The Bank of Canada  but may even contemplate another cut if oil travels toward the $40 mark. Then we can yak about $10 cauliflower.

Third, don’t expect this to carry over into lower mortgage rates. None of the above is great news for the economy, jobs, incomes or bank earnings. Risk has been augmented, and at the same time the T2 gang is trying to douse the housing flames in the GTA and YVR. One big tool will be to shift more exposure from CHMC to the lenders. The end result – mortgages stay about where they are even if rates in general decline.

Fourth, Britain just got whacked, losing its Triple-A credit status, with at least 3.5% of its economic growth cancelled over the next two years. That’s ginormous. Foreign investment in the UK will wane and monetary conditions around the world get looser. The Bank of England is already flooding the land with freshly-printed pounds, while the ECB continues to spend billions on bonds every month in a massive stimulus program. The direct beneficiaries of this will not be working-class Brits who seek better incomes, but investors with financial assets gasbagged by new liquidity.

All this makes Canadian bonds look sexy by comparison. Expect yields to go down and prices to rise, even as the economy in general slows markedly and job creation disappoints. Slower foreign demand for Canadian exports and any protracted decline for commodity prices (especially oil) would mean harder times for most regions of the country.

And while it’s hard to see any of that being good for residential housing prices, some people think a lower dollar and an exodus of capital from Europe will plump values further in our bubble cities. They’re also thinking that way in Australia, the other place where house horniness is a national disease. Maybe the property pimps are right. The perception that rates will stay lower for longer, and that land’s inherently safer than equities may drive more into a realtor’s embrace. Good luck with that.

In conclusion, Brexit is good for bond holders and likely bad for families. Central banks will paper. Portfolios will recover. Economic growth will falter. Thus the workies, not the wealthy, will pay. Was this the goal?

212 comments ↓

#1 Vancouverite on 06.27.16 at 6:30 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/chinese-bank-card-unionpay-gains-traction-in-canada/article30620889/?service=mobile

This money laundering into Vancouver Real Estate is getting ridiculous. All these politicians/bureaucrats need to be kicked out and held accountable.

#2 OkanaganMadness on 06.27.16 at 6:31 pm

https://www.facebook.com/BrilliantOkanagan/posts/1724017927867384/

Amazing:
“BREXIT: pouring fuel on the fire for Okanagan Real Estate.
Own as much Okanagan Real Estate as soon as you can, as quickly as you can.
The economic issues are “fundamentally fiscal”, but the politicians will continue to focus on monetary tools. ie:
1) keep historically low interest rates, LOW. (may become negative)
2) print more money (remember the “solution” to the 2008 world economic crisis?)
3) keep increasing taxes (please note that “carbon” is a word, conveniently placed in front of another word…tax)
4) spend more, “deficits are good”, right?.
These INCREASING factors are a continued recipe for inflation and place a massive bulls-eye on BC Real Estate’s attractiveness as an INTERNATIONAL safe haven investment.
This is Okanagan Real Estate, set for price moves like we have never experienced here.
So, my friends: Own as much Okanagan Real Estate, as soon as you can, as quickly as you can.”

#3 Vancouverite on 06.27.16 at 6:32 pm

“The average transaction size for a UnionPay purchase in Canada is $2,500 (Canadian), an astonishing 25 times the overall average debit card transaction, ”

What more proof do you need?

#4 common sense on 06.27.16 at 6:34 pm

Great article Garth!

#5 polecat on 06.27.16 at 6:41 pm

Is the store doing well? I miss small town Ontario, used to travel around the province a lot when I was stationed there years ago. The best fishing to be had. Maybe I;ll move back when I retire and go off grid in Wawa.

#6 Sideshow Rob on 06.27.16 at 6:43 pm

The ECB bailed out the European banks to the tune of $600 billion this weekend. That’s more than 2008. Why? What happened.? I didn’t hear of any bank runs.

Here is my guess that will never be verified if true…

The European banks got caught on the wrong side of the currency debacle. I’m guessing that they gambled with customer’s money no less. Which made them bankrupt as of Monday morning. I can’t prove this but I have heard some rumors from people I trust. The theory happens to fit what we know.

This better not be the case. Bankers being bailed out yet again, this time in secret because the integrity of the system is at stake. I should remind you that NO ONE did any time for the fraud and corruption that blew up the system last time. This time it’s being swept under the rug. Disgusting.

We should find out soon who lost big this weekend. You can’t hide a sucking chest wound forever. Some hedge funds are surely blown up. Question is who.

#7 BS on 06.27.16 at 6:45 pm

Was this the goal?

I don’t think most people know what the goal is. They just know they want a bigger slice of the pie. Problem is the pie just got smaller in Britain. Those that keep their jobs will get squeezed to produce more for less.

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.16 at 6:45 pm

Balanced and diversified……like my diet.

#9 Say What? on 06.27.16 at 6:47 pm

Further interest rates hikes are toast? No surprise there. Interest rate hikes were never really on the table. They were just a lot of talk from economic cheerleaders. Interest rates will remain low well into the distant future.

#10 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 06.27.16 at 6:47 pm

“Based on our model simulations”. I should have stopped reading from there.

Its fun taking the opposite side of the trade. Bonds at a multi century high are a better sell than real estate. “safe” haha.

Britain is Germany’s 3rd largest export market. The EU has been stagnating since the GFC, and is full of nasty issues. Trade will not likely decrease at all, and investment will take a short term hit.

Britain will not need to worry about Greece, Finland, Spain, Portugal or the nascent banking crisis in Italy. In fact, its a joke to think the banks on the continent will take business away from London. Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse are bankrupt.

Garth, you are such a Doomer lately! I actually sold my gold based on the misplaced panic and bond market extreme.

#11 Say What? on 06.27.16 at 6:50 pm

The property pimps are indeed right. Houses will continue to rise in price. Especially in TO and Vancouver. Maybe the s$#& will hit the fan someday, but not today.

#12 Doug t on 06.27.16 at 6:50 pm

The world is in flux – Just as history shows us that power shifts and empires fall. We are indeed in the throws of historical change all around the world – 7.4 billion people, record poverty, civil unrest abounds, global food crisis where prices have risen 83% on average compared to 3 years ago, climate change, water shortages, the growth and threat of radical religions and the monumental increase in rage amongst people. Where this is all heading is not pleasant but then again it’s not the first time in history that has witnessed massive change on a worldwide scale.

#13 Ed on 06.27.16 at 6:50 pm

The goal? The goal was never a player; this was all basic, animal, instinctual emotions (negative emotions at that–whose origins lie in sensing a tiger attack and defending oneself–these emotions were never meant for useful social interaction. Only those who work hard at being human are above the animal, basic, instinctual responses).

#14 AB Boxster on 06.27.16 at 6:51 pm

Only time will tell.

History may see it as a massive blunder, or the greatest decision the Brits have ever made.

Just never bet against the Americans or the British.

#15 Frank on 06.27.16 at 6:52 pm

The other potential knock-on is that the once unlikely Trump win seem possible now. If the 5th largest economy having a brain fart knocks 6 percent of global markets, imagine what the world biggest economy could do.

Also note that while downplayed the country’s biggest housing doomer (and our lovely host) acknowledged that calls of peak house in TO and the big V may have been premature. If he’s willing to say that then we could have another pop like what the Chinese market crash last August did. Can you imagine, the average house in Vancouver being worth $2million? I can’t either but 2 months from now as we close in on labour day, that could be the case. God help us.

#16 Joe2.0 on 06.27.16 at 6:53 pm

Greenspan today said the States should return to the gold standard.
He says there’s much pain coming.

Check his Best Before date. — Garth

#17 Say What? on 06.27.16 at 6:53 pm

New liquidity. That is a euphemism for new printed money. All is good until the populace realizes that the central bankers have no clothes. Then the s$#* will really hit the fan.

#18 Andrew Woburn on 06.27.16 at 6:54 pm

The Donald is already political Ebola for many people. A GOP delegate is suing to get out of voting for Trump.

“The delegate, Carroll Correll Jr of Winchester, Virginia, argued in the suit that being forced to vote against his conscience was a violation of his constitutional rights.

Correll said he would not vote for Trump because he believed the billionaire businessman was unfit to serve as president.

Correll’s suit maintained that state law imposed criminal penalties on delegates who did not vote on the first ballot for the winner of the state’s Republican and Democratic primaries.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/25/donald-trump-virginia-republican-delegate-sues-to-avoid-voting-convention

#19 COINTELPRO on 06.27.16 at 6:54 pm

The narrative here against the pro- Brexit crowd has been despicable, especially the previous posting.

Some key points:

1. IMO this election result was driven by elitist/globalist (let’s call them the collective “Borg” for brevity) visions of a Europe and eventually a world re-organized; without countries that are more than a sentimental memory, a fully globalized economy governed by the principle of comparative advantage accompanied by the inevitable poverty of those dispossessed of prosperity by capitalist magnates who revel in their opportunism, a world in which the ancient ethnic nations of Europe are expected to accept inundations of people alien to their cultures who would inevitably and irreversibly make, for example, France into a different country.

2. Resistance to this set of ideas is variously described as “traditional xenophobia,” and the “ideas of the ignorant, elderly and unsophisticated.” These are characterizations heard today from the American “Borg” media. I heard an interview today where Christopher Dickeym (editor of the Daily Beast) referred on the air today from Paris to the French as “the present residents of France.” Can you believe that?

3. Is it not likely that the French are looking across La Manche to Dover with envy at the possibility of regaining control of their fate?

4. This must be a great blow to Obama, the prophet and organizing force in his imagined coming world utopia. For Hillary Clinton, not so much, she will “go with the flow,” but Obama’s vision of a world increasingly globalized under American hegemony (leadership) is badly damaged in its prospects by the English decision to leave the EU.

5. The American media have already begun to describe the menace of analogous revolt in November, once again implied to be a revolt of rural, ignorant buffoons.

Trump will prevail.

#20 Bobby C on 06.27.16 at 6:55 pm

Now, Janet Yellen can blame her failure to raise rates on Brexit. She could even use this as an excuse to cut rates back to zero.

Other than economists and Garth, most people knew full well they were not going to raise rate.

They are talking 2018 folks… get ready for rate hike in 2018!!!!

#21 acdel on 06.27.16 at 6:55 pm

AS long as a country can make and follow it’s own rules and laws and not be dictated by Brussels (after watching Brexit the movie) that have no idea what they are doing and allowing only a selected few gorging themselves, then yes, it will be worth it.

#22 Capt. Serious on 06.27.16 at 6:55 pm

Much bigger crisis in the UK’s England: Iceland just embarrassed jolly England 2-1. One shot in second half for ENG. Terrible. Though maybe this is the template. Escape EU, build winning football team.

#23 vanreal on 06.27.16 at 6:57 pm

It sounds like you are reluctantly admitting that maybe housing will be a better investment than even a balanced portfolio over the next few years. it seems like a correction will never come.

Now where did I say that? — Garth

#24 Johnny D on 06.27.16 at 6:57 pm

Preferred shares. (XPF) What can we expect these to do in the near to mid term?

#25 TRUMP on 06.27.16 at 6:58 pm

ASK NOT WHAT YOUR COUNTRY CAN DO FOR YOU.

ASK what can you do for DONALD trump.

CAN’T STUMP THE TRUMP!!!

#26 X on 06.27.16 at 6:59 pm

So this RE market is on you Morneau….no rate hike to increase mortgage rate in the near future and slow housing here….

Reducing all mortgage limits to 25 years, not just the CMHC backed ones, would take it to the higher priced areas. There is a big difference in qualifying for a 25 year mortgage requirement and spreading the payments over 30-35 years, and actually making the payments over a 25 year period.

#27 MF on 06.27.16 at 6:59 pm

But we’ve been told that a lower currency is “good for exports”? Where is the problem? People should be running to buy UK goods now right? Now they have an excuse to drop rates further and try to kick the can down the road (which is ending soon). What a joke.

The market was at an all time *manipulated* high and it fell, big surprise there. Considering it was backed up by nothing (US job growth has slowed).

How is Brexit so bad when we already had debt everywhere, “emergency interest rates”, and anemic growth to show for it? Brexit (soon to be grexit/pexit/frexit) is a symptom. Not a cause.

Great moment for democracy.

MF

#28 nubbers on 06.27.16 at 7:07 pm

As Chef from South Park would have said, ‘Little England has just gone and fudged itself’.

#29 The real Kip on 06.27.16 at 7:08 pm

I’m betting it’ll be Deutsche Bank that needs the biggest bailout. They’ve been playing in a house of cards for a while now. Brits are smart to put some distance from that mess fast.

The long emergency is not over yet.

#30 BOOM! on 06.27.16 at 7:12 pm

“In conclusion, Brexit is good for bond holders….. Was this the goal?”

One needs to ask the PM in charge (since resigned) who engineered the “in” -or- “out” vote on EU membership.

Further, should you see Mr. C. you might inquire why he is delaying his duty to execute the people’s will expressed. Execute rule 50. Get the exit process underway. -thanks-

M64WI

#31 George Hull on 06.27.16 at 7:14 pm

Interest rates were supposed to go higher. Now you say they will be lower.

30 year Canada bond is 1.72%. Garth, what happened.

Read the post. — Garth

#32 pinstripe on 06.27.16 at 7:16 pm

The EU Policy Makers will do anything to maintain their status.

Non elected bureaucrats do not give up that easily.

Enough is ENOUGH.

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4998680232001/nigel-farage-rubbish-to-blame-brexit-for-stock-losses/?intcmp=hpvid1#sp=show-clips

#33 Doug t on 06.27.16 at 7:16 pm

I have been saying for several years that a big correction in housing was coming – someday I’ll be right lol but in the meantime I have missed out on a monumental cash grab

#34 will on 06.27.16 at 7:17 pm

High Yield bonds have been rising as well the last two trading days. My fund anyway. Don’t know if Brexit is responsible for this or not.

#35 Fluorine on 06.27.16 at 7:19 pm

Are all these preferred shares we were told to buy still a good deal now that rate hikes are off the table for the foreseeable future?

They tend to get killed when rates get cut…

They are fixed income. Enjoy the dividend. — Garth

#36 BS on 06.27.16 at 7:20 pm

#22 vanreal on 06.27.16 at 6:57 pm
It sounds like you are reluctantly admitting that maybe housing will be a better investment than even a balanced portfolio over the next few years. it seems like a correction will never come.

At current prices Vancouver RE could not be considered an investment. At best a speculation and at worst gambling. I would put my money on a roulette wheel before putting it on Vancouver RE.

#37 TCContrarian on 06.27.16 at 7:20 pm

I posted this on yesterday’s topic (with a couple edits). Should’ve done it here:

********************************************
Panics bring opportunity – and this Brexit thingy is no exception.
Have been busy last couple trading days covering my SP500 shorts, while buying up Euro ETFs like EWI, GREK, and bidding for more at lower levels (along with adding to existing positions in silver/gold/energy/and other commodities).
I’m even considering buying up some bank equities such as Barcleys, but will wait a day or two more to let the dust settle.
I don’t think the sky is falling, that’s all…(unless you’re following the English team at the Euro 2016)

From what I’ve read, the Eurozone was bound to come undone – as several entities had predicted this from the very beginning. An economic union cannot persist without political union, they claimed. I believe Soros was one of them (not sure).

European nations have existed a lot longer as separate entities than as members of the Eurozone, so I’m sure they will re-invent themselves, again – perhaps even stronger than within the Union.

Until then, buy low (fear)/sell high-higher (on complacency). Highly emotional panics are most opportune!

#38 DG on 06.27.16 at 7:21 pm

Hi Garth, what do you think about these guys that suggest that the ability of the commercial banks to create money electronically is one of the reasons for the increasing house prices in the world?
http://positivemoney.org/issues/house-prices/

#39 Parksville Prankster on 06.27.16 at 7:24 pm

#24, expect them to stay flat or even fall, but then again they keep pumping out the dividends, and that’s the point after all with Prefs, right?

#40 BOOM! on 06.27.16 at 7:24 pm

Gotta love the circus both in the UK as well as America for political theatre.

Not sure who put the ‘mock’ in ‘democracy’ but, it’s there now!

#41 Arfmooocat on 06.27.16 at 7:26 pm

London is the new foreign owned real estate lottery

#42 LowRent of Arabia on 06.27.16 at 7:29 pm

Stay Calm and Just BBQ.

Used to be summer was for lounging, swimming and BBQ’ing.

Now it is for endless economic and political critiques of douchbag elites and their foes the white pasty faced pub citizens.

We suck as blog dawgs. And more importantly they are bringing back Ron Maclean. There goes the stock market down again.

#43 TCContrarian on 06.27.16 at 7:34 pm

I think this was the REAL reason for the Brits to exit:

Regulations on the size/shape of cucumbers! Here’s only part of the law in Eurozone pertaining to Cukes:

(i) ‘Extra’ class
Cucumbers in this class must be of superior quality. They must have all the characteristics of the variety.
They must:
– be well developed
– be well shaped and practically straight (maximum height of the arc: 10 mm per 10 cm of length of the cucumber)
– have a typical colouring for the variety
– be free of defects, including all deformations and particularly those caused by seed formation.
(ii) Class I
Cucumbers in this class must be of good quality. They must:
– be reasonably developed
– be reasonably well shaped and practically straight (maximum height of the arc: 10 mm per 10 cm of the length of cucumber).
The following defects are allowed:
– a slight deformation, but excluding that caused by seed formation
– a slight defect in colouring, especially the light coloured part of the cucumber where it touched the ground during growth
– slight skin blemishes due to rubbing and handling or low temperatures, provided that such blemishes have healed and do not affect the keeping quality. (iii) Class II:
This class includes cucumbers which do not qualify for inclusion in the higher classes but satisfy the minimum requirements specified above. However, they may have the following defects:
– deformations other than serious seed development,
– defects in colouring up to one-third of the surface; in the case of cucumbers grown under protection,
considerable defects in colouring in the affected part are not allowed,
– healed cracks,
– slight damage caused by rubbing and handling which does not seriously affect the keeping quality and appearance.
All the defects listed above are allowed for straight and slightly crooked cucumbers.
On the other hand, crooked cucumbers are allowed only if they have no more than slight defects in colouring and have no defects or deformation other than crookedness.
Slightly crooked cucumbers may have a maximum height of the arc of 20 mm per 10 cm of length of the cucumber.
Crooked cucumbers may have a greater arc and must be packed separately.
(iv) Class III (1):
This class includes cucumbers which do not qualify for inclusion in the higher classes but satisfy the requirements specified for Class II. However, crooked cucumbers may have all the defects allowed in Class II for straight and slightly crooked cucumbers and they must be packed separately.
III. PROVISIONS CONCERNING SIZING
Sizing is determined by the weight of the cucumber.
(i) Cucumbers grown in the open must weigh 180 g or more. Cucumbers grown under protection must weigh 250 g or more.
(ii) Moreover, ‘Extra’ Class and Class I cucumbers grown under protection weighing:
– 500 g or more must be not less than 30 cm long,

**********************************************

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:31988R1677:En:HTML

#44 6%er on 06.27.16 at 7:35 pm

Garth’s small c ideology prevents him to objectively analyze macroeconomic macro social events.

He has turned into a simple mouthpiece for the globalist elite.

He has publicly denied the foundation of democratic Capitalism, where elected politicians serve the public vs “leaders and followers”.

Workies exist to serve the wealthy. Voting right is the unfortunate leftover of the past. 6% return is the alpha and the omega of human existence.

Did I make you come here? Want your money back? Act like the guest you are. — Garth

#45 Irent on 06.27.16 at 7:37 pm

Just watched some Brexit show on CNBC. The remain side looked concerned, but never came out to be counted. The old foot in the grave were happy….some legacy

#46 Smoking Man on 06.27.16 at 7:37 pm

#27 MF on 06.27.16 at 6:59 pm
But we’ve been told that a lower currency is “good for exports”? Where is the problem? People should be running to buy UK goods now right? Now they have an excuse to drop rates further and try to kick the can down the road (which is ending soon). What a joke.

The market was at an all time *manipulated* high and it fell, big surprise there. Considering it was backed up by nothing (US job growth has slowed).

How is Brexit so bad when we already had debt everywhere, “emergency interest rates”, and anemic growth to show for it? Brexit (soon to be grexit/pexit/frexit) is a symptom. Not a cause.

Great moment for democracy.

MF
…..

Kid no such thing as democracy. It’s more of Hollywood movie. You need to invest in a good tin foil fedora.

Now when you understand what’s going on. Don’t buy a black tee shirt and protest with cardboard signs. Use your knowledge that tin foil gives you to make good bets and make loot.

Leave the bitching to the young sjw. The most mind fkd generation ever to walk the earth.

#47 mabel's sister Zelda on 06.27.16 at 7:39 pm

More important than Brexit…….mmmm caramel. Look to the right Mabel, ice cream. How many weight watchers points per scoop?

#48 Shawn on 06.27.16 at 7:39 pm

Stock Market Decline is FAR from a crisis.

“Stock markets in North American have shed about 6% of their value over two sessions. Sucks, but not a crisis.”

****************************************
Agreed, certainly far from a crisis. The S&P 500 is down 5.3% to 2001. This is a level not seen since, nearly four entire months ago (See March 10).

Indeed this is no big deal (at least so far). Anyone who can’t handle a 6% decline in the equity market without feeling sick should simply not be invested in equities.

Will it get worse? Clearly no one knows. Trying to forecast short term moves in these things is a fools game.

My guess is that markets will find something else to focus on before too many more days. Whether that next thing is a bit of positive news or a bit of negative news is hard to say. But BREXIT is unlikely to be the focus on North America markets for very many more days.

Markets are said to have “sold off”. More correctly, the price of stocks was “bid down”. For every single stock sold over the past two days there was a buyer. Should we say the market was “bought down?

#49 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.27.16 at 7:45 pm

spot on Gartho

too bad about YVR and YYZ. the frenzy continues.

u know what other asset class is gonna rock?

US real estate baby!

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/27/how-the-uks-exit-benefits-us-reits.html

#50 Julie K. on 06.27.16 at 7:46 pm

So confused.

Hate that.

Come here seeking financial clarity day after day. Yes, maybe a bit wiser (thanks to some of you) but still far, far away from concluding which way to turn.

#capitalpreservation

#51 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.27.16 at 7:47 pm

brexit is the black swan of 2016

#52 Shawn on 06.27.16 at 7:49 pm

S&P dip is no biggie

P.S. the S&P 500 is at 2000.5. On February 10 it had a dip to 1829. We are sill within about 6% of all time highs. So our recent little dip is minor indeed (at least so far.)

Check out the S&P 500 long-term chart on a log scale (the only scale of any use for long-term growth) and it can be seen that as Garth says this 6% dip sucks but is no crisis.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#{“useLogScale”:true,”range”:”max”,”allowChartStacking”:true}

#53 Suede on 06.27.16 at 7:50 pm

England is out of Euros

#brexit

If my wife knows what Brexit is, you better believe the masses are getting worried about the economy.

Realtors, time to cash out at the top. The missus doesn’t see an interest rate drop as good incentive to buy a place.

#54 conan on 06.27.16 at 7:50 pm

I do not think the “workies” were getting anything out of the EU deal myself. Maybe the shaft.

As far as I see it, over the last 5 decades we have gone from one salary to raise a family, then two, Now we are at three.

Truth be known, globalization with the corporations in charge never would have passed in the first place, if the truth about it, was told properly.

#55 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.27.16 at 7:53 pm

here’s some YYZ real estate for ya

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/toronto-house-sold-203-ellerslie-avenue/

bask in all its putrid glory

#56 I'm stupid on 06.27.16 at 7:54 pm

Let’s call the Brexit what it really was… A vote for racism and discrimination or one for inclusion and tolerance. Unfortunately racism and discrimination won. The Nazis didn’t burn people alive all at once, they worked up to it. It began with indifference, matured to intolerance then became hatred. Im not suggesting the British will go that far but I’m not going to feel sorry for them.

#57 Let's Get House Horny on 06.27.16 at 7:54 pm

“The Brits are eviscerating themselves, casting serious doubt on the future of the biggest free trade zone at a time of slow and wobbly global growth”

More extremist Brexit fear mongering…..

For a bit more balance and a much closer look at the apparent marvels of the EU Trade Bloc go and watch Brexit the Movie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0

Perhaps then Garth you may understand why the British public voted to get out of the EU.

When a sovereign nation has to bow down to the rules and regulations of unelected officials made in another country then you know deep down that it has become an extremely flawed creation.

And those same unelected officials free of all responsibility with no electorate to answer to cannot be unseated by any of the member countries via a popular vote.

The EU is a total fraud – a great mass of vested interest and red tape that is choking the life out of its member countries. It is a failed experiment. And if you cannot see that then you have your head totally buried in the sand.

The elevated levels of fear and propaganda is growing not diminishing.

Good on the UK for coming to their senses.

#58 BobC on 06.27.16 at 8:07 pm

I’m listening and following your advice. I feel no pain but I do have investments on the side. 10 Very highly ranked REITS all paying over 8% that are doing much better then my 60/40.
Sometimes it’s hard to stick to the rules.

#59 For those about to flop... on 06.27.16 at 8:08 pm

Well, well,well ,three holes in the ground.

I was gonna give a Euro 2016 update yesterday but the adults were having a spirited debate on the blog about Brexit so I sat back down at the kiddies table.

But today England was knocked out by soccer minnows and WULLYs team Iceland.
This is the another reason why it was appropriate that I had England ….they tend to flop in major soccer tournaments.

The leave side already won the referendum,but as I have been saying if this had happened last week the decision would have been by a landslide with all the disenchantment going on at the moment

I don’t think England would have gone much further in this competition anyway but I would have liked to see them play France and possibly Germany to see if there was much overflow from the two spectrums of sports and politics.

This is a nation that wants so badly to been seen as a winner again and I can only wish them luck they have a long road ahead.

On the plus side I now have two jobs to go for ,England soccer coach or the job at number 10 Downing st.

In the other game there was an upset as well of lesser proportions with the reigning champion Spain / Crowdeds team being beaten by WalMarks Italy.

Here is the line up for the quarter finals.

Poland/ Jimmy. Vs Brazil expat/ Portugal

Wales /Ace Goodheart Vs. Belgium/ Mark

Germany/ Common Sense. Vs Italy / WalMark

France / Garth Turner Vs Iceland / WULLY

Good luck guys…

M42BC

#60 Future Expatriate on 06.27.16 at 8:11 pm

#19? When Trump DOESN’T prevail (and he won’t), the US is shipping him, one way, gratis, to you. Have lotsa fun with him.

#61 WUL on 06.27.16 at 8:12 pm

Poor, poor England.

The Brexit escapade, the lashing by Standard & Poor’s, the delivery of a can of whupass on the football pitch by Iceland (pop. 330,000) and the Royal duties of Sophie, Countess of Wessex, compelling her to visit Fort McMurray last Friday.

Lord help England if Nickelback is set to play Wembley Stadium soon.

#62 BobC on 06.27.16 at 8:12 pm

I just can’t understan why any country would against this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662827/Has-Britain-avoided-European-superstate-France-Germany-draw-plans-morph-EU-countries-one-control-members-armies-economies.html

#63 Koshy Alex on 06.27.16 at 8:15 pm

The thing about Brexit is that people say “ohh this is a buying opportunity!” Well if it is then why are the others selling if they think it’s a buying opportunity. And if there is more selling and more selling why would people sell into a buying opportunity? Kinda weird.

Human nature. Why did we see an avalanche of selling in March of 2009, just before a massive rebound? Because people bail out on fear and bail in on greed. — Garth

Massive rebound ???? Sir how does this massive rebound happens, of course by printing massive amount of money by your Gods, the Central Banksters, we will see more massive rebounds now, they will have to print a lot to keep this massive rebound going

#64 Big Jack on 06.27.16 at 8:16 pm

Thank you Garth for this objective, money minded article. Keep them coming.

#65 Smoking Man on 06.27.16 at 8:17 pm

Can you Imagen Smokey being on a Board of Directors other than my oun Corp.

Education. Drunken rivet bucking inside an airplane wing for 10 years.

10 thousand doors knocked selling my windows and doors. Getting into the minds of my prey and figuring out how to take there money while leaving them with feelings of adoption. . That’s where I earned my Phd

Hypotheticly I’m on the Board of RBC. And I see Dave McKay sucking up to evey fringe freek show out there.

He’s fired. He didn’t see populism coming in like a freight train with no breaks.

#66 Entrepreneur on 06.27.16 at 8:18 pm

Isn’t the shock of the Brits leaving the EU like putting all your eggs in one basket. Why direct an economy one way, the EU? When first signed up the people were promised jobs, stability, etc. but after 30-40 years that promise did not happen to the leave side. So this is why the leaders should listen to the people of the land (and not just by talking).

Watched Power & Politics, listened to Minister of International Trade, said basically the same. Yeah right, jobs & security. Talk to all Canadians not just for a few.

What on we on the fourth recession or around that so the system is not working (working for a group, does not count as working) and for about 40 years of in-and-out of recessions.

The EU and any other trade agreements should not be first before the people that live within the nation’s border.

Listen to the people, govern by the people.

#67 Doug in London on 06.27.16 at 8:31 pm

What’s all this panic about falling stock markets? My Canadian trading account is down all of 1.05% and my U.S. account is down an absolutely horrifying 1.07%. I think I need antidepressants or tranquilizers to deal with the horror of it all. As I look at stock prices today I don’t see any amazing deals like we saw late last year or early this year.

The biggest non event in history was when the date rolled over to Y2K and there was supposed to be chaos in the aftermath. The second biggest non event in history is the expected collapse of equity markets following the Brexit vote for Britain to leave the E.U.

#68 goddess of Kamsack on 06.27.16 at 8:33 pm

It seems to me the markets/money/interest rates has been on a downward spiral for at least a decade. When the hell does it end?

#69 using an analogy on 06.27.16 at 8:36 pm

All that happened when I got divorced was my wife and I had to split what assets and debt we had, settle on a co-parenting plan, and she had to eventually go back to work. Today we are both better off for it.

Go over to 321gold.com and see Bob’s rant on why Brexit will be good for Britain. I don’t know if he’s got his facts straight or is just making them up, but if he’s right the EU is nothing but regulation on hyper drive.

All you need to do to form a free trade zone is actually get rid of the laws that forbid it. New laws and agreements are unnecessary.

A good example is “anti-dumping” laws. When China sells steel at below what the US steel companies can make it for, are they dumping? Or are they just selling it for what they can get given the supply demand balance? So the anti-dumping laws are really just a tariff to protect the high cost producers who can contribute to political campaigns in the region.

All tariffs, laws of restriction, and trade agreements are really just more of the same. For example, the “Russian sanctions”. What benefit is there to a Greek wine maker to be told he cannot sell wine to Russians because of something happening in the Ukraine? Well, none. Only the politicians benefit. And then once the sanctions are finally lifted, we see that the Greeks still cannot sell wine to the Russians because they’ve all switched to locally manufactured vodka or wine sourced from Argentina.

Brexit, more than anything, was a vote against over-control over things that don’t need to be controlled. My prediction is that the statements of the elite, that Britain will suffer outside the block, will prove to be false. Europe will continue to trade with Britain, and if they don’t Britain will just trade with somebody else.

They often say about girlfriends, if she dumps you worry not another will be along shortly. It’s like a bus, miss the 10:15 well you’ll have to wait for the 10:35. There is always another that will be along shortly.

#70 que on 06.27.16 at 8:36 pm

Ex-BoE chief Lord King: don’t panic over Brexit

“The idea this is a doom and gloom story seems wildly exaggerated”, Lord King told the BBC on Monday.

https://next.ft.com/content/9df063f3-ab7a-3ff9-8dca-efe8a9e06704

#71 conan on 06.27.16 at 8:37 pm

RE: #59 BobC on 06.27.16 at 8:12 pm

I was wondering when the news you are showing was going to come out.

It is laughably bad. A poison pill for the EU. Only a stone age country would willingly sign on.

#72 HellYeah on 06.27.16 at 8:39 pm

Well I’m glad the bigots of the recent Brexit related posts haven’t overtaken today’s steerage section *knock on wood*.

If no action on interest rates means mortgage rates stay where they are then housing continues its climb in 416. Since I’m already “in” this is probably to my advantage, but further screws the city IMO. As soon as my local baristas cannot afford to leave nearby then our bourgeois quality of life drops precipitously. I don’t want to drive to Woodbridge for a good espresso.

#73 Nelley on 06.27.16 at 8:40 pm

The EU needs the UK at lot more than the UK needs the EU-the UK was a major funder of the whole EU farce-going forward the missing UK contribution will have to be picked up by the already overburdened German taxpayers.

#74 Ace Goodheart on 06.27.16 at 8:46 pm

RE: “Foreign investment in the UK will wane and monetary conditions around the world get looser. The Bank of England is already flooding the land with freshly-printed pounds, while the ECB continues to spend billions on bonds every month in a massive stimulus program. . . Central banks will paper. ”

As I keep saying, hyper inflation. This is all about government debt. The elephant in the room is the inability of any first world country’s government to even keep up with the interest payments, without borrowing more money.

About every hundred years or so, government debt collapses and becomes unsustainable. It is about to happen again.

Houses have already been priced to reflect the general worthlessness of our money. Other goods will soon follow. We are headed into a period of massive currency devaluation. Get ready for it. Get rid of your cash.

#75 jay on 06.27.16 at 8:50 pm

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/tear-down-up-for-auction-burnaby-home-for-sale-to-highest-bidder-1.2964138
Auction of house’s in Van. now ,it’s getting ugly out here.P.S bye Chrusty.

#76 BobC on 06.27.16 at 8:51 pm

I get it now. What loyal countryman wouldn’t like this?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662827/Has-Britain-avoided-European-superstate-France-Germany-draw-plans-morph-EU-countries-one-control-members-armies-economies.html

#77 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.27.16 at 8:55 pm

It seems to me the markets/money/interest rates has been on a downward spiral for at least a decade. When the hell does it end?

when u hear the squishing sound

#78 Jeff Christ on 06.27.16 at 8:58 pm

Is inflation lurking in the shadows? I think anyone who bought govt bonds in the last 3 years is in for a rude awakening.

#79 Loser on 06.27.16 at 9:02 pm

Sitting around doing nothing while people who came to Canada 10-15 years ago risk play and line up to buy new home builds and then sell them before closing are making 300-400,000 a flip. No wonder Markham has tons of exotic cars. Looks like being a side line loser has ruined me. Can’t blame the blog, have to blame myself. Hurts!!

#80 Joe2.0 on 06.27.16 at 9:06 pm

16-Garth
“Check his best before date”

I agree but Greenspan has been a integral player in the current U.S. Economic situation.

Maybe it’s all part of some larger diabolical plan….
Ha, ha,ha,ha,haaaaaaaaaaaaa

#81 Gregor Samsa on 06.27.16 at 9:09 pm

Called it: Brexit would be the excuse (note, excuse, not actual reason) for the elite to change the narrative from “the economy is wonderful, rate hikes are coming” to “because of Brexit, rate cuts are coming.”

It’s a narrative that doesn’t actually hold up to economic scrutiny, but they will use it anyways.

What nobody ever talks about is the consequences of low rates. There’s this belief now that low rates are both awesome and essential. But the fact of the matter is that low rates are toxic to an economy. Economically, our society has two main choices: take some quick pain and rebuild better, or delay the pain, kick the can down the road, and face an even worse crisis later. Due to a dumbed down populace, pathetic leadership, a corrupt media, and general cronyism in society, we choose the latter – except in the case of Brexit, where they chose the former. Gives me a glimmer of hope for humanity.

#82 Bob Gear on 06.27.16 at 9:14 pm

>Let’s call the Brexit what it really was… A vote for >racism and discrimination or one for inclusion and >tolerance.

It boils down to this… The majority understands that there has to be limits to immigration. Too many, too quickly and you economically cripple the host country and too radically disrupt its stable culture. Since the politicians were unwilling to recognize this fact, and do something about runaway immigration, the people stood up and took the helm.

The ratio of earth’s population to Canada’s population is roughly 233:1. So if you’re so bent on inclusion and tolerance , why don’t personally accept 233 immigrants into your own home tomorrow. If you complain that that is “too many” then we can use your own nonsense against you and call you a “racist”.

#83 TurnerNation on 06.27.16 at 9:16 pm

From the social engineering dept. (which Brexit it):

Every bank branch in downtown financial core of TO has massive rainbow flag stripes on all outside windows, flags set up at each teller station, flags strips on line- area poles, and flag logos on the ATM screens.
It’s now, Pride Month.

I’m left wondering what this minority group has done for me and my life to warrant a month (not a week) of worship and celebrations as heros? Do I care who goes home and kisses whom they please? Nope.

Also, Toronto’s always been a great diverse city; eg. Chinatown, Little Italy, India; Greektown. You get the idea. (For decades now.)
Why is diversity being sold so hard to us? What is their goal when we’ve had it for decades? Who is being marginalized.

#84 For those about to flop... on 06.27.16 at 9:17 pm

Here is a chart you guys should look at to see if it rings true to you.

How different countries deal with their problems…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/Q11Noan

#85 Grooby on 06.27.16 at 9:20 pm

#26 X,

The Conservatives don’t get off that easy. It’s their gasbag, even if it pops on someone else’s watch. At least Libs are looking for solutions.

Not to mention our record federal debt levels and all time deficit record high; Cons own that too.

#86 Gramps on 06.27.16 at 9:22 pm

Read this blog steady for awhile now. I would of voted leave too. I’m content with my financial situation. Never been content having to follow stupid orders/regulations; no matter what the gain.

“A May 2016 research report from Chatham House outlines the depth of the sovereignty myth. In short, the idea that the UK has lost its sovereignty is deeply misleading. For instance, the UK controls 98% of its public expenditures and still determines almost all of its major policy initiatives.” Link. — Garth

#87 46 and 2 on 06.27.16 at 9:25 pm

Did I make you come here? Want your money back? Act like the guest you are. — Garth

Garth….I will say that you do have a tendency to lean towards siding with banks and governments.

Just saying….

#88 bigtowne on 06.27.16 at 9:26 pm

Premier Wynn and T2 and the President of Mexico Enrique Nieto are chowing down in Toronto tonite….finally my tax dollars doing some good.

Hopefully the visa requirement for our NAFTA partner Mexico will get the heaveho so we can add some latino energy to our diverse arctic draft.

It has been eight years since my last purchase of Hanes undergarments which were $10 for a pack of six…nowadays the pack is about $15 but due to my remorse and guilt and anxiety over GIC rates at .70 I am unable to pull the trigger and buy new Hanes. I have never been this stingy with my money…eight years and I am down to my remaining three pairs without holes. This must have been what the depression and the dirty 30’s was…not replacing undergarments, etc.

Also I have one pair of shorts which used to be a pair of sweat pants I bought at GIANT TIGER on sale for $6 five years back and cut them off as I was unable to part with them. Now I go to Winners and Marshalls and see Columbia shorts for $30 and again I am paralyzed with fear and loathing to part with a buck.

Yes, I have the serious defects of a miser. This is what zero interest rates does to normal people…it kills any propensity to spend.

#89 Sixtyfourk on 06.27.16 at 9:29 pm

There will always be an excuse for the Fed to not raise rates.

This time it is “Brexit”. Next time it will be… “Bad weather?” or …

The Fed is as trapped as the BoJ. How did two decades of low interest rates work out for Japan?

#90 MF on 06.27.16 at 9:29 pm

#55 I’m stupid on 06.27.16 at 7:54 pm

100% Disagree. It was about freedom vs oppression and there are extremists on both sides. Actually, the left leaning/stay side is the most intolerant and extremist of all. If you disagree with anything they say you are immediately given a derogatory label and threatened, even if you are just expressing patriotism. Just look at the recent violence outside Trump rallies to see it. Militant feminism, radical religious nuts..they all hide among the left/stay side.

#72 Nelley on 06.27.16 at 8:40 pm

Especially when the next Greece debacle hits. Should be soon now. It’s getting to that time of the year.

#71 HellYeah on 06.27.16 at 8:39 pm

Somewhat related. The Brits have a housing crisis (especially in London) as well. Central bankers have failed there just as much as here. Brexit was a in part a rejection to that failed policy.

#67 goddess of Kamsack on 06.27.16 at 8:33 pm

Getting close now. Negative interest rate bonds is an admission of failure.

#62 Koshy Alex on 06.27.16 at 8:15 pm

Hardly. They are all out of ammo except for “talking down the dollar/pound/euro”. Everyone knows it too. that’s why the market gyrates like crazy at any hint of danger.

#45 Smoking Man on 06.27.16 at 7:37 pm

Agreed. It’s amazing how brainwashed these SJW’s are. They resort to school yard tactics of bullying and insults if you disagree with them on anything. Patience and the simplest of retorts usually sends them scurrying. Luckily people are awaking everywhere and there is a much needed backlash coming.

MF

#91 Smoking Man on 06.27.16 at 9:34 pm

#82 TurnerNation on 06.27.16 at 9:16 pm
From the social engineering dept. (which Brexit it):

Every bank branch in downtown financial core of TO has massive rainbow flag stripes on all outside windows, flags set up at each teller station, flags strips on line- area poles, and flag logos on the ATM screens.
It’s now, Pride Month.

I’m left wondering what this minority group has done for me and my life to warrant a month (not a week) of worship and celebrations as heros? Do I care who goes home and kisses whom they please? Nope.

Also, Toronto’s always been a great diverse city; eg. Chinatown, Little Italy, India; Greektown. You get the idea. (For decades now.)
Why is diversity being sold so hard to us? What is their goal when we’ve had it for decades? Who is being marginalized.

The strait white male, formal middle class how doesn’t know he’s being marginalized. When he wakes up to this. A few black eyes and dead bodies is what I’m thinking.

Hence Trump..

#92 dt on 06.27.16 at 9:37 pm

Canadian BONDS??

You mean so T2 can throw more billions after climate changelings in Paris?

No government pays off its debt…not for hundreds of years…usually they just default. Brexit is about stopping reliance on government and so called experts. They were all wrong. Soros too.

The Internet helped us with the Awakening. Now we have entered the Unraveling. Bonds are the LAST place you want to be, especially in a dying petrocurrency called the Loonie.

I sold the North Van house on Chinese New Year (Feb 8) after listing Feb 7. This is my first post here I never knew of your blog until last week.

The proceeds (1.6× assessment ) are already in USD. I am waiting for an entry in the Dow this fall and we will get it.

Real estate us your thing and to the extent that real estate is a derivative of sovereign debt you need to know that when governments start failing and real estate trades on an unlevered basis values can drop 90%.

The Dow 30 will survive. Dividend yield of 2.5% will be higher in the correction coming over the next year. Maybe they will just use robots, so if your job is at risk, own the best companies of robots…the Dow 30. Get a better yield than the bank with CIPF insurance.

But even the Dow 30 may only be a 2yr trade if things get real bad as after the Unraveling we may get WWIII

#93 NoName on 06.27.16 at 9:37 pm

#53 Suede on 06.27.16 at 7:50 pm

If my wife knows what Brexit is, you better believe the masses are getting worried about the economy.

.wife {
right: 100%;
margin: 0%;
}

.brexit {
transition: 3yr ease-out;
}

.rich-people {
top: 1%;
}

.working-class {
bottom: 99%;
}

#94 MF on 06.27.16 at 9:38 pm

#79 Loser on 06.27.16 at 9:02 pm

Don’t worry it’s all a mirage based on debt and nothing else. Will disappear in a puff of smoke as fast as it appeared. The whole thing is a sham (our RE based economy).

#81 Gregor Samsa on 06.27.16 at 9:09 pm

Solid post. Repeated for effect:

“Economically, our society has two main choices: take some quick pain and rebuild better, or delay the pain, kick the can down the road, and face an even worse crisis later. Due to a dumbed down populace, pathetic leadership, a corrupt media, and general cronyism in society, we choose the latter – except in the case of Brexit, where they chose the former. Gives me a glimmer of hope for humanity.”

Indeed.

MF

#95 Ronaldo on 06.27.16 at 9:39 pm

#2 Okanagan Madness –

How did you make it past the gate? Obviously Garth was sleeping at the switch.

#96 common sense on 06.27.16 at 9:41 pm

#84 Flopski

Notice how insignificant Canada is that it was left off the chart?

Canada’s would likely have a symbol “Spend massive amounts on an Inquiry board, do nothing” and problem remains.

Go Germany..thanks for the updates…Hope they can beat the “US IS BOOMING” Walmark!

#97 AB Boxster on 06.27.16 at 9:49 pm

Capt. Serious on 06.27.16 at 6:55 pm

Much bigger crisis in the UK’s England: Iceland just embarrassed jolly England 2-1.
————————————————
Not to worry.

England’s soccer association has a petition to have a do-over because they did not like the result.

EU officials have thrown their support behind this, saying it in the best interest of the union.

#98 Victor V on 06.27.16 at 9:50 pm

PRICE DROP #3 – 210 Poplar Plains Road – SOUTH HILL

http://themashcanada.blogspot.ca/2016/06/price-drop-3-210-poplar-plains-road.html

In October, I posted this 5+1 bedroom, 6 bathroom house on a 50 x 135.83 foot lot at 210 Poplar Plains Road in South Hill.

It was a house that I had previously posted in October 2013 when the asking price was $4,900,000. I thought that price was high and that it would sit for a while.

It didn’t sell and was back on the market in October 2015 for $4,950,000.

Considering the market had increased by 20%, I thought this would now sell closer to $4,750,000.

A month later, the price was dropped to $4,798,000.

At the end of March, the price was dropped again to $4,675,000.

It has had another drop…

To $4,388,000.

I think they are ready to sell.

#99 For those about to flop... on 06.27.16 at 9:53 pm

#96 common sense on 06.27.16 at 9:41 pm
#84 Flopski

Notice how insignificant Canada is that it was left off the chart?

Canada’s would likely have a symbol “Spend massive amounts on an Inquiry board, do nothing” and problem remains.

Go Germany..thanks for the updates…Hope they can beat the “US IS BOOMING” Walmark!

//////////////////////////////

Hey Common ,thanks brother.Canada’s would have been…

Problem> No Data > Problem…

M42BC

#100 Chris in Nanaimo on 06.27.16 at 9:56 pm

Well England should demand a replay against Iceland until they get the result they want…..

#101 tundra pete on 06.27.16 at 9:59 pm

Brexit schmexit whatever. They can all have it and deserve it. Cutting off your nose to spite your face usually ends poorly.

We have been at the lake at our cabin for the past week and are going to stay another week. Work can wait as it is so nice being off grid, watching the garden grow, showering in rain water in the solar shower and watching birds be birds out on the lake.

I think everyone should have an off grid retreat stocked with everything you need for weeks if not months. Always be prepared for the doo doo hitting the air mover. Never know when that may occur. Next task is rifle maintenance and sighting in. Always nice to be ready for hunting season early.

#102 bdwy sktrn on 06.27.16 at 10:01 pm

rec properties catching fire in 604???

our humble, unspoiled little piece of paradise out in howe sound (keats) apparently has had 12 sales in the last 4 years prior to this year.

this year is 12 so far.

#103 Andrew Woburn on 06.27.16 at 10:06 pm

#15 Frank on 06.27.16 at 6:52 pm
Can you imagine, the average house in Vancouver being worth $2million? I can’t either but 2 months from now as we close in on labour day, that could be the case. God help us.
=====================

It is worth remembering the similarity between an overheated real estate market and a classic pump-and-dump stock play. In both cases the public sees the recent sales price of individual units as a valuation of the whole of the asset base. If one unit is worth $2 million, they all must be.

In the pump-and-dump, crooked promoters take full advantage of this mass psychology. If Consolidated Moose Pasture has 10 million issued shares, they make sure that 9 million are held by insiders and half a million by “friendly” stock brokers who are in on the deal. Maybe only 5% of the stock is held by independent investors. The trick is to keep most of them from selling at the “wrong” time. This is done by issuing misleading information that persuades the gullible that the stock can only go up. The result is a very restricted supply of sellers and share prices ramp on tiny trade volumes. Once the promoters cash out, the public loses faith and shares crash to their true economic value, usually near zero.

It is easy to see that a current share price of $10 doesn’t mean Consol Moose was ever “worth” $100 million. And all the houses in YVR cannot be worth $2 million when their economic value is, maybe, $500K. Obviously I don’t believe there is a master plan to pump YVR real estate but the underlying mechanics are pretty much the same. Supply is ever more restricted by the fear that sellers can’t buy back in. Delusions about endless price increases and FOMO drive out common sense. Just like Bre-X. Just a very small portion of properties can sell at $2 million until even the last dreamers can’t pay for them. After that the supply tap will turn back on with the inevitable result.

#104 bsallergy on 06.27.16 at 10:13 pm

Tis time for the UK to be consigned to the dustbin of history. Outside of the mind of the UKers it has been there since the end of the last world war. Insignificant country living old glories.

#105 dt on 06.27.16 at 10:20 pm

What happened to my post?

No idea. — Garth

#106 Interesting... on 06.27.16 at 10:25 pm

Garth, the mistake you’ve been making over and over is not recognizing that the world economy has been barely plodding & trudging along since 2009. Your forecast over and over and over again for an interest rate hike never realistically took into consideration how poorly the world economy was actually doing. But an even bigger mistake was never anticipating another inevitable set back that could derail the feds policy even though we’ve been at zero interest rates for 7 and a half years.

It’s not me, dude. The entire global economic and financial community never expected UK voters to blow off their own collective foot. — Garth

#107 Nelley on 06.27.16 at 10:25 pm

Smoking Man: Things 95% of global billionaires (and thus the MSM) agree on :

1. Diversity is the best thing since sliced bread (but not for them)
2. Trump is the devil
3. Guns are a problem (if you can’t afford armed bodyguards 24/7 that is your fault)
4. Guv spending should be higher, taxes of all kinds should be higher (we aren’t paying anyway)
etc.etc.etc.

#108 Andrew Woburn on 06.27.16 at 10:30 pm

#248 Herb on 06.27.16 at 7:19 am
#191 Andrew Woburn,
are you trying to sneak fact into a propaganda fight?
===================

Yeah, what a buzzkill.

It was worth a try to see if anyone noticed. At least you did.

#109 not 1st on 06.27.16 at 10:32 pm

Garth, did you say interest rate hikes are off the board??? Haha Every country on the planet will be cutting by xmas.

And the eltie can try to pass it off on the workies again, and they will just respond with an even more extreme election choice. Maybe a Trump like character comes out of the woodwork next time in Britain. Are the elite sure they want to play this game?

#110 stan on 06.27.16 at 10:35 pm

Garth, you got it backwards yet again. We are not guests here, you did not invite us. You left the door open for anyone to come here. If you want guests you should at least make it a member only site.
And it is very obvious that you are pro-government (even the fascist EU government) and pro-bank. Don’t be surprised when some people can see that. Most people are asleep so you lucky for you.

#111 Jacob on 06.27.16 at 10:39 pm

It’s not Garth’s fault that he keeps expecting higher rates. The whole baby boomer generation is really getting it backwards. They are the ones who lived through the anomaly rather than the current situation being one.

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/10532462

They all grew up seeing the highest rates in 1000 years. They now think high rates are the norm whereas low rates of growth and low interest rates are the real normal. We won’t see high rates again for more than a few lifetimes.

You wish. — Garth

#112 45north on 06.27.16 at 10:41 pm

Let’s Get House Horny: For a bit more balance and a much closer look at the apparent marvels of the EU Trade Bloc go and watch Brexit the Movie.

I did. 1 hour 11 minutes. Good points, well made. The problem is the European Union is an economic union not a political one.

HellYeah: As soon as my local barista cannot afford to live nearby then my bourgeois quality of life drops precipitously. I don’t want to drive to Woodbridge for a good espresso.

what at Tim Hortons?

#113 Yitzhak Rabin on 06.27.16 at 10:43 pm

“Greenspan today said the States should return to the gold standard.

He says there’s much pain coming.”

Check his Best Before date. — Garth

The man is 90 and no longer has to worry about influence peddling, rent seeking and internal politics. People tend to actually tell the truth in that situation.

Greenspan probably feels some guilt for his role in blowing the biggest financial bubble of our lifetime leading to the ensuing collapse in 2008.

His perscriptions for monetary reform are dead on, from his interview:

“If we went back on the gold standard and we adhered to the actual structure of the gold standard as it exited prior to 1913, we’d be fine. Remember that the period 1870 to 1913 was one of the most aggressive periods economically that we’ve had in the United States, and that was a golden period of the gold standard. I’m known as a gold bug and everyone laughs at me, but why do central banks own gold now?”

Anybody advocating a return to the gold standard has lost it. — Garth

#114 SydCixel on 06.27.16 at 10:44 pm

Re: “The Brits are eviscerating themselves, casting serious doubt on the future of the biggest free trade zone at a time of slow and wobbly global growth.”

But what good did this free trade zone ever do for the middle class? They voted for Brexit because only the elite have benefited from these “free trade”agreements. They were also tired of listening to experts telling them what was in their best interest.

Maybe we should stop repeating the same worn slogans and deal with the fallout. — Garth

#115 Edward on 06.27.16 at 10:44 pm

I’m afraid that it’s not just some Canadian real estate that’s in trouble. All the emergency interest rates, quantitaive easing, money printing and deficit spending are coming home to roost. The world’s central banks have little amunition left to fight whats coming. ALL assets are way overly inflated. Commodities have plopped. But now I’m afraid that stock markets have overshot and are going to correct just like real estate might.

#116 conan on 06.27.16 at 10:55 pm

“It’s not me, dude. The entire global economic and financial community never expected UK voters to blow off their own collective foot.” — Garth

I am in the community that you refer to and we got this memo.

” not a done deal that UK will stay”

Yours Truly,

Illuminati Dude

#117 WallOfWorry on 06.27.16 at 10:58 pm

It’s not me, dude. The entire global economic and financial community never expected UK voters to blow off their own collective foot. — Garth

Isn’t the reality that the Fed were never going to be able to increase rates four times, this year, and even when you emphatically stated two more times it was grounded in the reality of the current global economic conditions? The US is growing at 1% or less and with a $20 Trillion dollar government debt, they simply can’t sustain the debt charges at higher rates.

#118 45north on 06.27.16 at 11:16 pm

Edward: not the Edward I know? ALL assets are way overly inflated.

Jesse Felder says the same thing. Here’s a chart that shows the ratio of household financial assets to disposable income. He says it’s unsustainable.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jesse-felder/single-most-important-chart

#119 snake on 06.27.16 at 11:16 pm

Chinese bank claims fugitive bought luxury B.C. real estate.

The documents claim Yan bought three homes in Surrey in the next three months, one worth $1 million, one worth $3.1 million and one worth $2.3 million.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/china-real-estate-vancouver-fugitive-1.3655136

#120 KG on 06.27.16 at 11:20 pm

Garth, looks like you got religion of some sort. You write differently now.

#121 Somewhere on 06.27.16 at 11:32 pm

What changes when Brexit happens???

Absolutely NOTHING. The owners of Britain are the same owners of the EU (Rothchilds).

It just means more administration for the Rothchilds…the EU was just one way to cut back on red tape for them.

The reality is the Brexit drama is being created to give the appearance of “Democracy.”

#122 dt on 06.27.16 at 11:47 pm

One could be excused for thinking this is a Bremain blog with all the anti Brexit comments. I guess some people enjoy having their country run by unelected bureaucrats. Funny thing is eight other countries want referendums now. But Brexit is bad LOL.

It’s not about closing borders. It’s about having some elite in Brussels fine countries and towns 250,000 Euro per unacceptable rapefugee.

Maybe if this carried on the EU would just invite ISIS. Hang on. ISIS is already there.

It’s easy for Canadians to be racist and ignore the pain of Swedes and others watching refugees rape their daughters while police look the other way. Would it be different in Oakville or West Vancouver? Or do we pretend that all immigrants are the same? Or do we pretend that we need immigration in a time of increasing robotization? Canada’s economy is in the toilet. There are no jobs for Canadians let alone the number of migrants that descended on Europe.

Perhaps it’s over the heads of the Bremain crowd on this blog but the UKs FTSE stock index was the best performer in the bloodbath in European markets last week. That is proof Brexit is a positive economic move.

The MSM was wrong on Brexit. The experts were wrong. But the Bremain crowd on this blog ignores it just like the typical Canadian denial of Trump as if T2 is any better. Hah!

#123 AB Boxster on 06.27.16 at 11:53 pm

While I wish Garth were correct re: interest rates rising, perhaps we never will see rates rise significantly, maybe for decades or ever.

The issue stems from the changed nature of global finance and trade.

As the world’s economies, markets and financial system have become more and more connected, it is becoming obvious that shocks, whether naturally occurring, or based upon war, rebellion, etc. will continue to impact decisions that were once based on national interest.

Case in point – Brexit
A shock yes. But impacts have been relatively minor on the markets.

Yet the US, the one country with any real growth, which should be raising interest rates, will not, for fear of exacerbating a situation which has relat ively no impact on its own domestic economy.

Perhaps the best current example being that the global financial crisis, was really an American financial crisis that spread globally because of the total interconnected nature of global markets and economies and finance.

The case being that there will always be global shocks.
Japan will always have eathquakes and tsunamis.
Russia will continue to try to destabiize regions.
China will do whatever it wants.

I suspect that it did not matter whether it was Brexit, or Grexit, or Frexit, or another terror attack somewhere, or natural disaster wherever.

The whole world is already so interconnected that perhaps it is really impossible to apply domestic financial policy, without consideration for its impacts everywhere else in the world.

Even though the US wants to rise rates domestically, the rest of the world is such a financial basket case, that it effectively cannot.
And I can’t see the rest of the world somehow becoming less of a basket case in the near future.

Maybe trying to apply old economic theories is a waste of time in this suppose new and improved world of globalization.
If so, it does not bode well for the housing market or for personal indebtedness problems.

But perhaps this is just another ‘unintended consequence’ that we are experiencing, in the rush to persue the holy grail of globalization.

#124 AB Boxster on 06.28.16 at 12:10 am

This is a interesting article:

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/get-ready-to-see-this-globalization-elephant-chart-over-and-over-again

Golly Gee Whiz!
Who’d have thought that globalization might be having some pretty unappealing financial consequences for some.

Now, if we could only find some way to stop these folks from voting, all would be fine. ‘Sunny days’ one might even say.

#125 SWL1976 on 06.28.16 at 12:12 am

Second, interest rate hikes are toast. The Bank of England will cut its key rate by at least a half point in early August. The US Fed will not carry out its planned pop in July.

You’re coming around now, Garth.

Always an interesting read

Great Forum

Central banks will paper. Portfolios will recover. Economic growth will falter. Thus the workies, not the wealthy, will pay. Was this the goal?

Sad, but true. Yes

#126 Renee on 06.28.16 at 12:16 am

A credit union to be unnamed starts with a v, just locked in my fixed 4 year at 1.89

Fwiw i did negotiate and was putting more than 20%

Are you sure rates arent going down?????

#127 Rexx Rock on 06.28.16 at 12:31 am

This Brexit was all planned or rigged.The elitist were shorting the markets all over the world.Just go with the momentum and follow the money ie real estate and stocks.

#128 Son of a Gun on 06.28.16 at 12:37 am

For the majority of us who visit this blog to gain financial insight and opinions, the douchebaggery on display over the last few days has been fantastic.

As an immigrant it has made me uncomfortable, and as an investor/saver it’s just been plain dumb.

So for you conspiracy bums, Brietbart’s ghost is waiting with open arms, for everyone else there’s Huffpo!

Now scuttle off before Garth threatens to shut this blog down again.

#129 AR on 06.28.16 at 12:41 am

The direct beneficiaries are investors? Huh? Really? I don’t think anyone is a beneficiary. Back to instability and fear. If we could get even a couple good years. But so far it’s a downward trend. 3 yrs waiting. China, Greece, EU. Never bet against the US. Except if the UK loses its mind.

And we thought Brexit would be a big yawn. What a surprise.

#130 For those about to flop... on 06.28.16 at 12:54 am

Britian is acting like a senior citizen that pooped in its Depends and now is caught in two minds.

Does it carry on wearing the same pair of soiled Depends and hope that nobody notices where the smell is coming from ,or does it go home have a good shower and put on a new pair and start fresh…

M42BC

#131 drydock on 06.28.16 at 1:00 am

#56 I’m stupid on 06.27.16 at 7:54 pm

Let’s call the Brexit what it really was… A vote for racism and discrimination or one for inclusion and tolerance. Unfortunately racism and discrimination won. The Nazis didn’t burn people alive all at once, they worked up to it. It began with indifference, matured to intolerance then became hatred. Im not suggesting the British will go that far but I’m not going to feel sorry for them.

0101010101010101010101010101

You aced your moniker.

#132 Chatham House on 06.28.16 at 1:14 am

“A May 2016 research report from Chatham House outlines the depth of the sovereignty myth. In short, the idea that the UK has lost its sovereignty is deeply misleading. For instance, the UK controls 98% of its public expenditures and still determines almost all of its major policy initiatives.” Link. — Garth

Awesome independent source.

The author, Robin Niblett became the director of Chatham House in January 2007. Before joining Chatham House, between 2001 and 2006, he was the executive vice-president and chief operating of cer of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. During his last two years at CSIS, he also served as director of the CSIS Europe Program and its Initiative for a Renewed Transatlantic Partnership.
He served as chairman of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe (2012) and chairman of the NATO Policy Experts Group ahead of the NATO Wales Summit (2014). He has written extensively on UK and European foreign policy, and has given evidence on a number of occasions to the UK’s House of Commons Defence Select Committee and Foreign Affairs Committee, as well as to the US Senate and House of Representatives committees on European affairs.

Some solid ties to globalization, for sure.

Also Nic list of financial supporters:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/media_wysiwyg/Supporters1415.pdf

Too bad the voters are led by their own experiences.

#133 Venal Degger on 06.28.16 at 1:32 am

Amateurs panicked immediately on the news as expected and drank themselves into insanity over the weekend causing the idiots to hit market order buttons for instant sale on Monday morning….into the void…. prices plummeted as expected. Great news….yet another buy opp in the works…..news flash…the world is not coming to an end. That would only happen if Obama announced martial law and carried out his global Muslim Terror Campaign threat in a third term.

#134 M on 06.28.16 at 1:53 am

Brexit is a catalyst not the cause.

Cause is central banks printing money and allowing all pigs at the trough. Joe wants a house because housing goes up and Joe will be rich, companies are borrowing on the cheap to buy their own stocks giving artificially the impression that p/e went up, morons like Harper spend 6 Bil (borrowed) to send 2 crappy plane to dump bombs over the guy that wanted to transact oil in golden dinars and so on

Second qrtr results will be much much worse than the 1st -> another catalyst…

About the rest ? FTSE down 3 DAX down 6

#135 M on 06.28.16 at 1:57 am

..and who’s listening to TD :) .. total garbage.
Canadian and US GDP doesn’t go down because “uncertainty in the markets”.. they are going down beacuse debt started unwinding.
Jenny the fed will soon present another bail out

#136 M on 06.28.16 at 2:02 am

Relax Gartho… limeys will do ok (compared to the rest)
Triple A rating means exactly crap when everybody is in the currency race to the bottom

#137 David on 06.28.16 at 2:39 am

It is hard to imagine people in the UK bellowing out Land of Hope and Glory this week. Looks like the Sex Pistols Anarchy UK carrying the tune right now.
On a serious note when political and economic systems become completely unravelled the results are seldom pleasant or comforting.

http://www.democracynow.org/2016/6/27/making_sense_of_brexit_paul_mason

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/2008_all_over_again_20160624

#138 TRT on 06.28.16 at 3:22 am

Just as it was obvious that interest rates wouldn’t be raises (fudged inflation numbers, every ‘crisis’ was an excuse not to raise, missed window to hike in order to prop up equities, the list goes on..)

Now going forward, it is obvious that the world is going to print money like crazy to keep asset bubbles inflated all while keeping interest rates maybe at zero. Trust me, CPI’s around the world will be fudged.

Mega Money printing will happen (“inflate our way out”) all while denying inflation because the ‘statistics’ (Statscan CPI #) say so.

#139 ROTFL on 06.28.16 at 5:23 am

#43 TCContrarian — “I think this was the REAL reason for the Brits to exit: Regulations on the size/shape of cucumbers! […]”

That’s trade. To trade stuff efficiently, you need definitions and classifications. Here’s Canada’s regulations for cukes, which also specify tolerances for curvature and, superficially, appear to be longer than the EU regs:
http://www.inspection.gc.ca/food/fresh-fruits-and-vegetables/quality-inspection/vegetable-inspection-manuals/cucumbers/eng/1303757418571/1303757470588

Lest you think that only people whose inclinations curve to the left would bother to specify the minutiae of the specs for tradeable stuff, here’s part of the NYMEX spec for what you can deliver against the WTI crude contract:

Sulfur: 0.42% or less by weight as determined by ASTM Standard D-4294, or its latest revision; 3. Gravity: Not less than 37 degrees American Petroleum Institute (“API”), nor more than 42 degrees API as determined by ASTM Standard D-287, or its latest revision; 4. Viscosity: Maximum 60 Saybolt Universal Seconds at 100 degrees Fahrenheit as measured by ASTM Standard D-445 and as calculated for Saybolt Seconds by ASTM Standard D-2161;
5. Reid vapor pressure: Less than 9.5 pounds per square inch at 100 degrees Fahrenheit , as determined by ASTM Standard D-5191-96, or its latest revision; 6. Basic Sediment, water and other impurities: Less than 1% as determined by ASTM D-96-
88 or D-4007, or their latest revisions; 7. Pour Point: Not to exceed 50 degrees Fahrenheit as determined by ASTM Standard D-97.

Note that it’s only so short because it incorporates a lot of [doubtless detailed and long-winded] standards by reference.

I know, I know… Garth’s gonna say “not a cucumber blog.”

#140 Zen Headspace on 06.28.16 at 7:02 am

Brexit. Soccer.
A nation of hooligans.
Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Classic human folly: not following the Middle Way.
Extreme actions always result in pain and disaster.
Stay balanced. Stay diversified, Stay liquid.
Be water, my friend.

#141 fancy_pants on 06.28.16 at 7:08 am

when food prices triple we will lose a few of the other pounds.

#142 duhAndrew on 06.28.16 at 7:25 am

Talked to a finance/bank person about the mortgage issues…here is the plan for Canada. No interest rate hikes…they plan on cooling housing by limiting who gets mortgages, making it almost impossible unless you have big downpayment and can prove your income for 5 years.

Basically keeping interest rates low will make sure no one defaults. Making mortgages hard to get will slow real estate down.

Kind of genius really.

#143 James Taggart on 06.28.16 at 7:58 am

#67 Doug in London on 06.27.16 at 8:31 pm

What’s all this panic about falling stock markets? My Canadian trading account is down all of 1.05% and my U.S. account is down an absolutely horrifying 1.07%. I think I need antidepressants or tranquilizers to deal with the horror of it all. As I look at stock prices today I don’t see any amazing deals like we saw late last year or early this year.

The biggest non event in history was when the date rolled over to Y2K and there was supposed to be chaos in the aftermath. The second biggest non event in history is the expected collapse of equity markets following the Brexit vote for Britain to leave the E.U.

————-

The former was largely expected and its consequences widely hyped by MSM; the latter was triggered by the collective will of the people of Britain. At this stage, it would perhaps be prudent to avoid categorizing it as a «non-event», considering its implications (political, social, economical and financial) are still hard to ascertain.

just sayin’

#144 Hatfield McCoy on 06.28.16 at 8:12 am

Panic orders Monday took the prices down …only to jump after the feeble minded sheeple had been run into the loos to puke up stock and cash. As expected the markets are surging again now that the idiots have been fleeced.

#145 Caught on 06.28.16 at 8:13 am

I agree that a return to the gold standard is nonsense. But Greenspan did indicate in a recent Bloomberg interview that the current economic environment could have more negative consequences. Low productivity + full employment + increase in M2 = inflation. In that case, we would have rising rates in a low growth environment. Worst of both worlds. This would be worse than today.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.16 at 8:16 am

@#132 Chatham House

A little paranoid are we?

I dont think that the leader of a respected research organization is going to push a globalization agenda just for recieving grant money from hundreds of different companies, charities, people and govts.

The donations of grant money are from individuals and organizations that want objective, unbiased analysis.
Surprise! Even Russian oligarchs want the truth every once in a while. It helps their bottom line.
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation(the largest not for profit charity on the planet), The British Red Cross, environmental research, The govts of Norway, Switzerland, etc. All represented as donars.
As well as the evil oil companies, military suppliers, dictatorships, you name it. Hundreds and hundreds of donars paying for a well researched piece of paper from a well regarded organization.
There isnt a globalization conspiracy under every rock. Just paranoid fantasies wishing there was.
Not too worry , the former 1980’s soccer “Yobs” won the vote in Britain…..now they get to reap their “reward”.

#147 Caught on 06.28.16 at 8:16 am

This is why I think we are at or near an absolute top in the bond market. Inflation is here. It has been hiding out in the open.

#148 TnT on 06.28.16 at 8:19 am

The Pro Globalization Team failed in their invasion of Britannia.

2000 years of Britannia will not be subjects to Eurocrates.

This is the same fight, different battlefield.

******
We shall go on to the end,
we shall fight in France,
we shall fight on the seas and oceans,
we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be,
we shall fight on the beaches,
we shall fight on the landing grounds,
we shall fight in the fields and in the streets,
we shall fight in the hills;
we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God’s good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.”

You’re actually comparing the struggle against Nazis, fascism and genocide with leaving a trade agreement? Get over yourself. — Garth

#149 MF on 06.28.16 at 8:36 am

#142 duhAndrew on 06.28.16 at 7:25 am

You think that is genius? Maybe you are new here, but when the big banks tighten their lending, the smaller lenders step in and ensure any tom, dick and harry can get their mortgage and an “emergency” interest rate. It’s basically subprime and anyone who tells you otherwise is lying and is probably working in the FIRE industry.

Plus anything this government says is a lie meant to placate their dumbed down simple minded voter base.

Interest rates will rise -at some point- when the bond market bubble unravels. This will happen regardless of what the idiots in power try to do. This might be a while based on current world events, but the RE market here will probably collapse under it’s own bloated weight before that.

MF

#150 ROTFL on 06.28.16 at 8:52 am

“The entire global economic and financial community never expected UK voters to blow off their own collective foot.”

But here’s the thing. Students know that there’s some huge global financial and trade imbalances right now — even if we completely remove human migration from the equations. Those imbalances can’t continue on forever, so they won’t. They will eventually correct. It won’t be pretty.

My favourites are those who say the markets will “stabilize.” Markets NEVER stabilize. If they’re running below average volatility, or outside the range that fundamentals would suggest, it’s because there’s some imbalance building up somewhere. Politics, perhaps, are market corrections by other means.

#151 Dan Griffiths on 06.28.16 at 9:00 am

Well, England has now achieved something quite remarkable. They have managed to exit Europe twice in one week!! The upside is that Roy Hodgson at least demonstrated a plan for leaving! Maybe now that he has resigned, a run for PM is in order? I feel like Canada is the concerned child watching her aging mother and weirdo big brother descend into chaos, unsure of who to worry about first? Of course, our love affair with debt renders any concerns about foreign events quickly irrelevant.

#152 Nelley on 06.28.16 at 9:10 am

In a 2014 poll, 27% of French ages 16-24 support ISIS-27%!! The EU is disintegrating fast, which is why the controllers have stepped up the aggression-Britain literally escaped at the last minute-good for them.

#153 Pierre on 06.28.16 at 9:15 am

” Brexit is good for bond holders and likely bad for families.”

So it means remain was good for families?

So how to explain this ?

http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2016/wage-inequality3-16a.jpg

There is zero reason to believe Brexit will alter that chart one fig, and many to believe it will worsen the pattern. — Garth

#154 Rule Britannia on 06.28.16 at 9:18 am

Farage gets the euro death-kiss

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/160628105816-02-brexit-0628-overlay-tease.jpg

#155 Neil Armstrong on 06.28.16 at 9:40 am

#43 TCContrarian
LOL. Thanks. I think I’m ‘Extra’ class. Anyway, that’s what she said. I curve to the left, ROTFL:)

#58 BobC
Careful, you don’t want to be a yield pig and risk too much capital. Pigs get slaughtered, and for 8%, it isn’t enough compensation for the risk. Show me at least 10 in this low-growth environment and I may consider it.

#74 Ace Goodheart
I think you may be on to something. As we approach the blockchain disruption, central-banker created money monopolies may indeed become less valuable.

#156 Pierre on 06.28.16 at 9:58 am

“There is zero reason to believe Brexit will alter that chart one fig, and many to believe it will worsen the pattern. — Garth”

That’s the point.

Normal people don’t profit from globalisation.

The winners are the global elite, that is why the financial center of London voted massively for remain with all the tanguys living at the depend of others.

The greatest ‘winners’ are those in the lower-income brackets who benefit from the inexorable rise in global wealth that enhanced trade brings. Protectionism no longer works. Britain will learn this anew. — Garth

#157 Hot Albertan Money on 06.28.16 at 10:05 am

I’m just on old, rich, dumb, white guy (+any other insults that make others feel better about themselves) but I’ve got a question regarding the EU and the TPP

Why are millennials fans of the EU and not the TPP? What’s the difference between the two that makes one ok and the other not ok?

#158 BOOM! on 06.28.16 at 10:08 am

Just for some “perspective” I decided to see where my retirement income (not including my retirement investments), which is quite modest put us.

On a WORLD income scale it puts us in the top 1%

By the way, it is less than the average US annual earnings.

So, I guess the Americans, Canadians, and most of Western Europe have an awful lot of ‘fat’ to lose, or many many others need their incomes raised.

So, what are you prepared to give up?

#159 Mr. Frugal on 06.28.16 at 10:10 am

Farage gets the last laugh.

https://youtu.be/T4ZTuh52wXE

#160 Mr. Frugal on 06.28.16 at 10:14 am

#148 TnT on 06.28.16 at 8:19 am

I don’t care what Garth says. That’s the best Churchill speech ever! And that’s why I would NEVER bet against the UK. God save the Queen.

#161 The medium is the message on 06.28.16 at 10:30 am

re: Yitzhak Rabin

Actually if you look at what Greenspan was _really_ saying (aside from the hard money angle), you might get the idea that he was advocating for a pre-1913 era, you know, one in which the FED did not EXIST.

#162 Noel on 06.28.16 at 10:32 am

If you don’t think the promise of lower interest rates across the globe for the next 2 years are going to be bullish for housing you’re either:

being willfully ignorant

not understanding what drives house prices

The cost of money is one factor. Job security is a bigger one. — Garth

#163 AB Boxster on 06.28.16 at 10:33 am

“The entire global economic and financial community never expected UK voters to blow off their own collective foot.”

——————————————-
Often it’s necessary to remove a body part to save the body. Sad to lose the foot perhaps, but at least the body survives to fight on and the gangrene is gone.

#164 Doghouse Dweller on 06.28.16 at 10:43 am

#160 Mr. Frugal

This guy is priceless, I especially liked the part when he tells them none of them have ever held an honest job in their lives.

J.H. Kunstler was also talking truth,

http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/death-to-all-zombies/

#165 James Taggart on 06.28.16 at 10:47 am

#104 bsallergy on 06.27.16 at 10:13 pm

Tis time for the UK to be consigned to the dustbin of history. Outside of the mind of the UKers it has been there since the end of the last world war. Insignificant country living old glories.

——————–

When one talks about UK, he most probably means England or perhaps Brittania. Furthermore, when one speaks of England, he probably refers to London. By the same token, when someone mentions London(ium), he most probably implies «The City» or more precisely alludes to its foreign-affairs enclave known as the «Square Mile» (SM).

Now, «insignificant» would not be the proper word I would use to describe this inextricable «matriochka» complex of authority, influence and ultimately control. Suffice to say that the SM routinely places its loyal, trustworthy and most reliable «counsellors» in influencing positions inside all major multinational financial corporations and/or political, cultural or social organisations.

Our very lack of awareness ensure its ongoing strength and perenity.

just sayin’

#166 pBrasseur on 06.28.16 at 10:51 am

Much of Europe is an unsustainable socialist mess, a string of crisis just waiting to happen (some of which already have), the Brits made the right call to leave. Free trade does not mean you should submit to a centralized (and unaccountable) bureaucracy.

And Europe itself needed this kick in the butt, in fact it was begging for it, maybe this will help trigger some reforms to diminish the insane regulatory burdens and barriers to trade. Europe needs change, lots of it, hopefully Brexit (and the fear others will follow) will move them in that direction.

#167 S.Bby on 06.28.16 at 11:02 am

Looks like some cities in the US are getting quite bubbly real estate again. But when will interest rates rise? Or will we have another meltdown?

http://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=f12839&mobile=false

#168 Shawn on 06.28.16 at 11:07 am

We’re Getting Richer…

45North at 118 warned:

Jesse Felder says the same thing. Here’s a chart that shows the ratio of household financial assets to disposable income. He says it’s unsustainable.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jesse-felder/single-most-important-chart

******************************************
The chart shows that financial assets have increased to about 5.0 times income from 3.3 times in 1982.

The chart claims it is a bubble.

Another interpretation is that it is due to the continued financialization of the economy. (Mom used to work at home for no pay. Now she works out of the home for pay and pays child care.)

Also largely explained by lower interest rates.

Draw a line on that chart for debt to income and we see that net assets to income are higher.

Statistics can be used to support whatever position you have. Incurable Optimism or utter doom, “there’s a stat for that”.

Meanwhile the future always remains uncertain. Otherwise life would be boring.

#169 Doug in London on 06.28.16 at 11:11 am

I’m still waiting for the big drop in stock markets many “experts” predicted. Everything is up today. Even XEH-T (European Equities) and EWU-NY (UK equities) are up. So when’s this big drop in stock markets going to happen? Probably the same day oil drops to $20/barrel as predicted by Goldman Sachs last year.

#170 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.28.16 at 11:39 am

#160 Mr. Frugal on 06.28.16 at 10:14 am
#148 TnT on 06.28.16 at 8:19 am

I don’t care what Garth says. That’s the best Churchill speech ever! And that’s why I would NEVER bet against the UK. God save the Queen.
———————
Yeah, right.
That speech was delivered by an actor, while Churchill was safely tucked away in a bunker somewhere in Emgland.

#171 RentYVR on 06.28.16 at 11:46 am

Garth, you keep promoting the false narrative that in order for the UK to have free access to European and other markets they must submit to the EU bureaucracy. They don’t. We enjoy free trade with the U.S. and Mexico and amazingly we didn’t need to create a new North American government to do so. The Brits are now free to negotiate their own trade deals with the continent. Not sure why you think that’s such a disaster. Seems to work fine for Switzerland.

#172 Eks dee sipal on 06.28.16 at 11:50 am

Hey Boss,
I made the National Post. Now, will you take me seriously? Can’t ignore this, forever.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/kevin-oleary-is-eugene-levy-and-the-queen-is-lucille-ball-inside-the-internets-most-insane-conspiracy-theory

#173 AB Boxster on 06.28.16 at 11:51 am

DELETED

#174 S.Bby on 06.28.16 at 12:29 pm

I live near to this place so I was thinking I’d drop by and bid $1,000.00 just to get things started.

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/tear-down-up-for-auction-burnaby-home-for-sale-to-highest-bidder-1.2964138

#175 earthboundmisfit on 06.28.16 at 12:30 pm

@19 COINTELPRO
Your hat is too tight and your colon is blocked.

#176 Herb on 06.28.16 at 12:39 pm

#137 David,

good links, both of them, but sadly irrelevant to the “Land of Hope and Glory” and “America the Beautiful” chanters.

To borow a slogan that emerged there while the Prague Spring was being crushed: “The truth is what remains after everything else has come unstuck.” It will take a while.

#177 BS on 06.28.16 at 12:45 pm

156 Pierre on 06.28.16 at 9:58 am

“There is zero reason to believe Brexit will alter that chart one fig, and many to believe it will worsen the pattern. — Garth”

That’s the point.

Normal people don’t profit from globalisation.

Normal people get to buy goods for less than they would otherwise which benefits them and increases their standard of living. If we made iphones in Canada sure some guy may have a $22 per hour job working on an assembly line but you and everyone else would have to pay $3000 to buy one. And a higher cost for everything else currently imported including necessities like fruits and vegetables. That $22 per hour job would give a standard of living like a $12 per hour job. The making $22 would be no better off and everyone else who already had reasonable jobs would be worse off.

The two things we have seen skyrocket in price in Canada are housing and education. Neither can be imported which is the problem. Would you like to see those massive price increases for everything? Without global markets that is what can happen.

Look at dairy and poultry. We pay 2 to 8 times the amount for these products as the US because these markets are protected in Canada. It is the working poor families that spend the greatest portion of their income on these items who pay the price.

Trade barriers hurt the middle class more than anyone else. It allows the people to control the supply and basically fix prices. The elite would be more than happy to keep trade barriers. They can sell their products with no competition. Just ask poultry farmers and real estate developers.

#178 conan on 06.28.16 at 1:00 pm

Rise of the internet and the container trade industries screwed with the Globalist Agenda. Nothing wrong with that, that’s Life.

What is wrong, is not doing anything about it over the last 3 decades. Seems they are so committed to their plans that they ignore forks in the road that are not on their maps.

Good Generals don’t march with bad maps.

#179 jess on 06.28.16 at 1:28 pm

contrast and compare

STATE AID RULE -subsidies
http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/overview/index_en.html
The Belgian “excess profit” tax scheme, applicable since 2005, allowed certain multinational group companies to pay substantially less tax in Belgium on the basis of tax rulings. The scheme reduced the corporate tax base of the companies by between 50% and 90% to discount for so-called “excess profits” that allegedly result from being part of a multinational group. The Commission’s in-depth investigation opened in February 2015 showed that the scheme derogated from normal practice under Belgian company tax rules and the so-called “arm’s length principle”. This is illegal under EU state aid rules.
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-42_en.htm

Jolyon Maugham is a tax barrister:
EU’s state aid rule …why vote leave?
https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/uk/uk-will-now-become-tax-haven-rich/

VS

Conn. Bond Commission Approves $22 Million Package for World’s Largest Hedge Fund
Sunday, May 29, 2016
HARTFORD, Conn. (The Hartford Courant/TNS) – The Connecticut State Bond Commission approved $22 million in grants and loans Friday for the world’s largest hedge fund — despite bipartisan complaints that the wealthy company doesn’t need help at a time when state employees are being laid off….”
Saying that Connecticut is battling against other states, Malloy said, “I doubt that GE would have moved 200 jobs from Connecticut to Massachusetts unless they were paid $162 million.”

http://hamodia.com/2016/05/29/conn-bond-commission-approves-22-million-package-worlds-largest-hedge-fund/

#180 Ace Goodheart on 06.28.16 at 1:32 pm

There are some really funny tweets going around with regard to Brexit and the European soccer tournament loss:

“I only supported Iceland because I didn’t understand what it meant. I didn’t think they would ACTUALLY WIN.”

“If it stays like this, we’ll be the laughing stock of EU . . . oh wait,”

“England team now feel they were misled about consequences of letting goals in, didn’t think other team would actually win,”

“I for one expect the English football team to thrive outside the regulatory constraints of this tournament,”

“Standard & poor just downgraded England to two lions”.

#181 jess on 06.28.16 at 1:33 pm

Advisers jailed for £100m tax fraud

…”they falsified paperwork to deliberately mislead HMRC investigators.In an attempt to hide their fraud they established several offshore companies registered in the British Virgin Islands that supposedly operated in Monaco, Geneva and the Channel Islands. These companies were in-turn fronted by family friends in the Philippines and Kolkata.Simon York, director of HMRC’s fraud investigation service, said: “This was a complex investigation in which great work by HMRC officers uncovered a web of offshore companies, fake transactions and a series of lies.“These fraudsters were already wealthy individuals who thought they could get away with it – now they are paying the price behind bars.”

https://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/advisers-jailed-nine-years-film-tax-scam/

http://www.ftadviser.com/2016/06/27/ifa-industry/tax-planning/taxes-set-to-be-changed-as-a-result-of-brexit-GGCH8K9YIXNH1vFkzB8IzL/article.html

#182 Philburt on 06.28.16 at 1:54 pm

I welcome Brexit. The European Union was a disaster.
You cant combine a Country like Greece with serial deadbeat tax evaders with a highly efficient country like Germany…England has been decaying finacially since they joined….look up the numbers!
Asking someone to pay for other follies is mad.
Like Canada were tons of full-body abled people go into my wifes bank and collect gov cheques paid for off my sweat..Socialistic crap….Im sick of it…
The crooks running the EU were not elected. Do you know how much these A holes get paid!???
It is not a democracy. It started falling apart a long time ag. And the threats of a global collapse ect ect is just fearmongering by the power that want to keep control..Everyone is over reacting.
The sooner it all end the better for the average joe.

http://russia-insider.com/en/brexit-signals-end-neocons-end-history/ri15213

#183 barb on 06.28.16 at 1:59 pm

Another interesting email received today:

“A short list of financial and industrial FUBARs from the EU…

Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant.

Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers pension funds.

Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army’s new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.

Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.
Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with EU grants.
Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant.
Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.
Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant.
Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Park foam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding.
Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing.
ICI integration into HollandÂs AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs.
Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of £80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase.

JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, bought up companies in the UK with £20 million in EU ‘regeneration’ grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry.
UK airports are owned by a Spanish company.
Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company.
Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies.
The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online.
Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it’s Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada.
39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU
The Mini cars that Cameron stood in front of as an example of British engineering, are built by BMW mostly in Holland and Austria. His campaign bus was made in Germany even though we have Plaxton, Optare, Bluebird, Dennis etc., in the UK.
The bicycle for the Greens was made in the far east, not by Raleigh UK but then they are probably going to move to the Netherlands too as they have said recently.

Anyone who thinks the EU is good for British industry or any other business simply hasn’t paid attention to what has been systematically asset-stripped from the UK. Name me one major technology company still running in the UK.

We used to contract out to many, then the work just dried up as they were sold off to companies from France, Germany, Holland, Belgium, etc., and now we don’t even teach electronic technology for technicians any more, due to EU regulations.

I haven’t detailed our non-existent fishing industry the EU paid to destroy, nor the farmers being paid NOT to produce food they could sell for more than they get paid to do nothing, don’t even go there.

I haven’t mentioned what it costs us to be asset-stripped like this, nor have I mentioned immigration, nor the risk to our security if control of our armed forces is passed to Brussels or Germany.

Find something that’s gone the other way, I’ve looked and I just can’t.

Still want to stay? Well it must be some consolation that you have Cameron to negotiate in Europe on your behalf.
And of course, the real deal-breaker …. Democracy, transparency and independence. We can vote out our MPs – BUT the European Commission who dictate 55% of UK laws, which are legally binding, are ….. guess what, untouchable, unelected and hidden from view.”

#184 Life is not consequence free on 06.28.16 at 2:06 pm

Andrew Woburn, a lot of us noticed your refreshing injection of reason into the fray. I’m tired of the unchallenged assertion that England is now free of their unelected overlords. Perhaps there is more than a little truth to it, but those who repeat it seem hesitant to expound. It’s also a bit much coming from a society that has a House of Lords and remains incredibly classed to this day.

#185 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.28.16 at 2:07 pm

#167
“We enjoy free trade with the US and Mexico…….”
———
please speak for yourself. Obviously, you’re easy to please.

#186 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.28.16 at 2:19 pm

#183
great post.
Global trade, such a noble idea.
But when you look at the nitty gritty details it’s not so noble.
England has gone from being the master to being the servant in 30 short years.

#187 CJBob on 06.28.16 at 2:22 pm

The greatest ‘winners’ are those in the lower-income brackets who benefit from the inexorable rise in global wealth that enhanced trade brings — Garth
_____________________
I’ve not seen any stats or proof that this is true. In fact quite the opposite. The top 1% and 10% continue to increase wealth at a higher rate making the gap larger in North America at least. I’ve not seen stats from the UK but I suspect it’s the same.

Protectionism isn’t the solution, but pretending there isn’t a problem isn’t the solution either.

Well documented fact. — Garth

#188 rjrt81 on 06.28.16 at 2:23 pm

Samantha Bee lays the smack down on all you brexiter’s. Nothing like knowing what your voting for before you cast your ballot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nTrs-HuuUc

#189 salonist on 06.28.16 at 2:40 pm

The $25,000 cow

That’s the average value of a milk quota per cow under a supply-management system

http://www.macleans.ca/general/the-25000-cow/

#190 Ole Doberman on 06.28.16 at 2:46 pm

OMG Gartho do you have a barf bag for me? Cause I think I’m going to be sick – helicopter parents buying condos for their 6 month old kids so they don’t get priced out forever……this is now beyond surreal.

http://beta.bnn.ca/it-s-becoming-quite-a-phenomenon-vancouver-parents-buying-condos-for-their-young-kids-1.517152

This is indeed life altering – either Garth will be right, eventually, or Canada will be the haves and the have nots – or peasants vs the rich.

#191 drydock on 06.28.16 at 2:53 pm

#142 duhAndrew on 06.28.16 at 7:25 am

Talked to a finance/bank person about the mortgage issues…here is the plan for Canada. No interest rate hikes…they plan on cooling housing by limiting who gets mortgages, making it almost impossible unless you have big downpayment and can prove your income for 5 years.

Basically keeping interest rates low will make sure no one defaults. Making mortgages hard to get will slow real estate down.

Kind of genius really.

01010101010101010101010101

So keeping interest rates low for 20 or 30 years and not allowing anyone to buy in is genius?

Having qualified buyers purchase homes is hardly “not allowing anyone.” Why do so many here speak in comic-book extremes? — Garth

#192 Cloom on 06.28.16 at 2:59 pm

Adding to #91 and #83, if banks do not do it, but give hearty approval of it, then they are guilt of the same:

http://biblehub.com/nasb/romans/1.htm

#193 Herb on 06.28.16 at 3:06 pm

Garth,

which of the 2.8 million hits should I consider good documentation that trickle-down economics work?

https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=does+trickle+down+economics+work

#194 Smartalox on 06.28.16 at 3:19 pm

@ CJBob #187 & Garth:

Rising global trade may bring rising wealth, but can also exacerbate a leading cause of wealth inequality:

Debt.

Global trade increases the availability of consumer goods, spurring emotionally-driven demand which is financed by easily accessible credit.

If consumer purchases don’t increase revenues or decrease costs, then the resulting debt can only decrease wealth, never increase it.

The have-nots go deeper into debt, widening the gap, even if the ‘haves’ do nothing on their part to widen the gap.

#195 blokexistentialist on 06.28.16 at 3:21 pm

#186 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.28.16 at 2:19 pm
#183
great post.
Global trade, such a noble idea.
But when you look at the nitty gritty details it’s not so noble.
England has gone from being the master to being the servant in 30 short years.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo

#196 jess on 06.28.16 at 3:25 pm

banks

…” the EU’s “passporting” regime, based on the principle of mutual recognition which allows a bank in one EU member state to provide services in other states without additional licensing.

#197 jess on 06.28.16 at 3:37 pm

#189 salonist on 06.28.16 at 2:40 pm

aussie and new zealanders?

Banks on high alert on debt exposure in dairy sector post Murray Goulburn milk price

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/banks-on-high-alert-on-debt-exposure-in-dairy-sector-post-murray-goulburn-milk-price-20160628-gptrz9.html#ixzz4Cu8tYs9W

#198 westcdn on 06.28.16 at 4:30 pm

Reminiscing again – there was an Australian gal who wanted to play in the gal’s league. Nobody wanted her because she had no experience. My mother’s team took her on. It took a few games but that gal learned fast. She could slug the ball out of the park. She was also a good fielder with a strong arm. Amazing what you can get if you overlook your biases.

#199 Ole Doberman on 06.28.16 at 4:50 pm

Finally the crack down coming for BC real estate agents – fines for predatory pricing:

http://beta.bnn.ca/b-c-panel-calls-for-tougher-fines-oversight-for-real-estate-misconduct-1.517236

#200 Mark on 06.28.16 at 4:51 pm

“If you don’t think the promise of lower interest rates across the globe for the next 2 years are going to be bullish for housing you’re either:”

I think you’re slightly confused. House prices are determined not by interest rates, but rather, by the real time supply and demand balance in the physical market for housing. Low interest rates have stimulated demand, but they’ve also stimulated a lot of supply. Oceans of supply in fact. Practically everyone who can sign their name in Canada and wants to own a house (or 2 or 3) owns.

Even the slightest perturbations in the availability of subprime credit, as we saw with Budget 2013, caused the market to peak and stagnate for the past 3 years.

Additional falls in interest rates most likely not only won’t be passed onto consumers (as risk premia will continue to rise on account of physical overcapacity in the housing market), but is a sign of a very weak economy not capable of paying interest. These are definitely not positive signs for a Canadian housing market desperately in need of good news after 3 years of stagnation and price falls in most cities.

#201 Shawn on 06.28.16 at 5:06 pm

Volatility is the Best Friend of the Intelligent Investor

Venal Degger on 06.28.16 at 1:32 am said:

Amateurs panicked immediately on the news as expected and drank themselves into insanity over the weekend causing the idiots to hit market order buttons for instant sale on Monday morning….into the void…. prices plummeted as expected. Great news….yet another buy opp in the works…..news flash…the world is not coming to an end.

****************************************
Agreed. The panic selling on Monday and Tuesday lowered prices and smarter investors were buying.

Also, U.S. banks, which were bid down, may announce dividend increases tomorrow after FED stress test results.

WWWD. What Would Warren (Buffett) Do?

#202 AB Boxster on 06.28.16 at 5:07 pm

Deleted?
Shame on you Garth.

You may not appreciate the analogy.

If British feel that their culture is under attack, it really does not matter if it is ultimately achieved through force, or through more benign means, eg. globalization, uncontrolled immigration and economic disenfranchising.

The British showed a strong resolve to stand up to the German tyranny of 1939-45 as well as the Russian tyranny in the cold war, and I suspect much of the Brexit vote is against many of of the unaccountable EU policies.

Remember, that throughout history, countries and people have valued individual freedom and freedom from outside rule, such that they went to war to achieve these ends.

The multiple French and the American revolution are prime examples but history is littered with this.

These revolutions against ‘taxation with representation’ or ‘tyranny of the aristocracy’ have resulted in some of the most prosperous, wealthy and liberal nations of the world that exist today.

Whenever you draw the connection between Nazis and the current citizens of Germany, you will be deleted. It was a despicable comment. — Garth

#203 Metaxa on 06.28.16 at 5:10 pm

I welcome Brexit. The European Union was a disaster.
You cant combine a Country like Greece with serial deadbeat tax evaders with a highly efficient country like Germany…England has been decaying finacially since they joined….look up the numbers!
Asking someone to pay for other follies is mad.
Like Canada were tons of full-body abled people go into my wifes bank and collect gov cheques paid for off my sweat..Socialistic crap….Im sick of it…
The crooks running the EU were not elected. Do you know how much these A holes get paid!???
It is not a democracy. It started falling apart a long time ag. And the threats of a global collapse ect ect is just fearmongering by the power that want to keep control..Everyone is over reacting.
The sooner it all end the better for the average joe.

And that right there is why those who identify as Conservative in Canada right now will never see another Conservative government for quite some time.

A whole short story consisting of ranting and bitching, not a single solution proposed, just venom and hate.

I proudly identify as an old school Progressive Conservative and unless some of you take “balanced and diversified’ from your portfolios and apply it to your lives you are never going to get anywhere except more bitter.
More Metamucil, more Xanax, more whatever…

#204 Rob on 06.28.16 at 5:32 pm

Legendary investors Jim Rogers, and George Soros have stated that the final results to the financial markets due to Brexit will be as bad if not worse than 2008. Funny enough even former fed chair Alan Greenspan believes this to be true.

For fun have a look at the chart for DB (Deutsche Bank)
If their downtrend continues the derivative fallout will be severe.

#205 AB Boxster on 06.28.16 at 5:41 pm

My mistake.
After re-reading my post it does come across this way.
Not my intent.

Apologies.

#206 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 06.28.16 at 5:51 pm

The greatest ‘winners’ are those in the lower-income brackets who benefit from the inexorable rise in global wealth that enhanced trade brings. Protectionism no longer works. Britain will learn this anew. — Garth

It is the EU that is all about Protectionism, under various guises, but with the farmers being the best example. Britain was always pro trade and pro immigration. They will be going back to their roots.

Europe is just a clique with bullying at the top.

#207 Ace Goodheart on 06.28.16 at 7:57 pm

Re: #182 Philburt: “England has been decaying finacially since they joined….look up the numbers!”

– do you have the numbers to support this? Reason I’m asking is the UK (not England, the whole UK) joined the EU in 1973, 43 years ago. Are you saying they have been decaying financially since then? That seems to be a bit of a stretch.

#208 Dan Duran on 06.28.16 at 8:06 pm

@#142 It’s called credit tightening. Been going on for a while. It won’t do anything for the prices. Increases wealth gap.
Cools’ building, listings, curbs move-up activity, delays spending, increases pent-up demand. In a word, it kicks the can down the road. The cycle will not end until an orgy of lending will occur. And it will, now later rather than sooner. In the meantime it’s foreign(cash) buyers who will scoop up most desirable properties. This cannot be stopped unless the govt does an ideological 180 turn (a la Brexit). Of course, the alternative would be to just let market forces play out, but who are we kidding, that will not happen any time soon, we’ve been constantly moving away from that paradigm since 2008.

#209 Dan Duran on 06.28.16 at 8:54 pm

“We” are giving lessons to the British about the perils of protectionism, while we have nothing resembling the free trade and movement of labor that EU has. Why don’t we have open borders with the US, or Mexico or Chile for that matter? And of course, there would be those who say the UK can have freer trade with non-EU countries if they Leave and it could be more beneficial to them than the free trade they have now with second-rate and failing EU economies.

#210 Entrepreneur on 06.28.16 at 9:45 pm

Thanks #159 Mr. Frugel for the video of Nigel Farage of the UK Independent Party. Nigel Farage speaks for the people of UK and is standing up for them.

Agree with #194 Smartlox on the wealth and debt equation. Most of us are told to deal with it, move away, part of life, how they had it tough, etc.

#? BS on buying it cheaper for quality of life for cheaper products and if we don’t the cost will go sky high…did I get that right? Well, to me that is a scare tactic that creates anxiety (maybe at first with this mess) but in time it all corrects itself, when too expensive people will eventually drop-off buying. Another reason could be that Canada is very Union so maybe that is the real reason that is not being addressed probably.

Power & Politics needs to get more gutsy “no guts no pain.”

Power & Politics…should they not have a representative from the First Nations sitting in with the discussions on a daily basis. I would like to hear their side of the debates not just Liberal/Conservative, NDP opinions.

#211 Caught on 06.29.16 at 9:45 am

Trump’s campaign is collapsing. This election will go down in history as the widest electoral defeat since Goldwater in 1964.

#212 Shakiri on 06.29.16 at 2:08 pm

i have some money saved up I would like to invest into ETF’s, and now seems to be a good time, since the markets are down. There seems to be some mart financial minds on here, so I thought I would ask if anybody had any recommendations, of ETF’s that are, and are expected to continue, performing reasonably well. As Garth is recommending, I would diversify the investement to be able to ride it out if one sector plummets. Thanks in Advance, and go Iceland!!