The hose down

SWEATER DOG modified

All doubt that government intervention in the country’s bi-polar housing market is on the way was erased by the finance minister on Thursday. It’ll be here in ninety days. Get ready.

Bill Morneau already hinted this was coming two weeks ago, then his boss confirmed it. When Trudeau called market conditions “a crisis” and lamented in Vancouver that housing is now “inhospitable to middle class families”, the pooch was gone. So there’s now a task force of the feds, Ontario and BC officials, plus poohbahs from the GTA and YVR, with a goal of action this autumn.

Officially, here’s the mandate: “to evaluate whether further steps can be taken to protect borrowers and lenders to help maintain a stable and secure housing market for Canadians.” Does that mean higher down payments? Less CMHC support and more risk heaped on lenders? A tax on Chinese dudes? A flipper-specker penalty? Mortgage restrictions? A deliberate hosing-down of Toronto and Van, while trying not to further depress Halifax, Montreal, Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, Saskatoon or Calgary?

Yes it does. At least some of the above will be in place a few months from now. But will the social and economic damage already have been done? After all, household debt’s at a record level and continues to expand. As mentioned previously (it bears repeating), a majority of million-dollar home buyers are already taking 30 or 35-year amortizations and four in ten have at least 450% more debt than income. The last thing they want is lower prices – which is exactly what Millennials crave.

More evidence of this came yesterday (like we need more). RBC’s regular housing (un)affordability report has hit a new and evil milestone. Even with a h-u-g-e 25% down payment, it now takes 119.5% of gross income of the average Van family to afford the average Van house. Yes, 119% – which is a fifth more than people earn, or 150% of take-home pay. Absurd. It’s more than anywhere else in the nation, at any time in recorded history.

So owning a single-family detached house, even an unrenovated beater, seriously ugly Vancouver Special, has “become out of reach for all but just a minority of higher-income households.” And yet, people keep buying. It’s a quirky law of rising markets – higher prices breed higher prices. Until it all stops, with people looking into the scared vacuity of each other’s eyes muttering WTF have we done? This is the day Mr. Morneau wishes to see arrive.

RBC also found Toronto is nuts. But less so. Over 71% of average gross income is now required to afford the average house (again, with a giant down payment already in hand). The after-tax cost is therefore close to 100% of cash flow. RBC calls this “significantly stretched.” Worse, “We expect such market conditions to fuel further rapid price increases in Canada’s hottest markets in the near term. This would mean that owning a home — especially a single-detached dwelling — at market price is likely to become even less affordable in those markets.”

Meanwhile blog dog Dave has a proposal for me. “Garth – would you like to go halvsies on this sweet little bungalow in the Dunbar area?  It’s a nice one.   And it’ll only go up.  Forever and ever. What a crock!”

Well, here’s the house. A new listing, Dave and I are going in for the $5.5 million asking.

DUNBAR HOUSE

The lot is fifty feet by 130, the house is 101 years old, tenanted, 2,400 square feet, two baths, four beds, free mold and nine grand in property tax. Says realtor Evan Ho: “This is a perfect opportunity to buy a large oversized lot in the Dunbar area. This property is located in a central location near shops, transit and much more. Lord Byng Secondary School catchment and close to St George and Crofton House private school. Currently tenanted with lease ending at the end of July 2016.”

So, yes, it’s being sold for land value only. That’s $850 per square foot of dirt in West 29th Street. This is not the typical house, of course (the average detached price in Van is only $1.7 million), nor will it go to the typical family. But if Bill & his task force buddies need any more tangible proof we’re headed for a really big cliff, here she be.

“We are still renting,” says Dave.  “We’re saving $2,200 a month over what we would spend on a mortgage here in Vancouver.  It’s starting to add up.  And we are on track to work only for fun by age 60. Not bad.”

Now, back to Brexit.

POUND

The pound is pounded as ‘Leave’ forces take early lead in UK referendum.

269 comments ↓

#1 bdy sktn on 06.23.16 at 5:43 pm

Markets have been wrong before.

Wait for the count

And u r too late . I am buying that place

#2 Sebee on 06.23.16 at 5:48 pm

We don’t have Brexit results yet, do we?

Right or not, the markets said otherwise. — Garth

#3 bdy sktn on 06.23.16 at 5:52 pm

50 footers on the east side are now over 2 m

Dunbar should be 4.5 to 5. It’s listed over market but I promise you some Chinese dude buys it Pronto.

#4 pathcontrolmonk on 06.23.16 at 5:56 pm

Less than 10 years ago that house would have sold for 1/5 that price.

Cue people whining about how much their houses depreciated in 3…2…1…

#5 Irony on 06.23.16 at 6:00 pm

Definition of Irony….

People going into a polling booth to vote “Remain” and therefor ensure they lose their own right to vote out the people making the laws that govern them.

#6 Nero on 06.23.16 at 6:04 pm

Yee hawww…
Drive that heard..90 days!!!
Toss in a rate cut while your at it…..

Pass me my fiddle….

#7 Nero on 06.23.16 at 6:08 pm

Irony you are correct Sir!

Bread and circuses my friend…
Ask me how I know…

Now a little “Devil went down to Georgia”……

#8 S.Bby on 06.23.16 at 6:12 pm

If that house doesn’t say “bubble” I don’t know what does.

#9 in 90 days on 06.23.16 at 6:17 pm

In 3 months we will see:
1. one rate hike
2. a sudden 10-15% drop in YVR mo/mo
3. CAD lower 10%

#10 cecilhenry on 06.23.16 at 6:21 pm

The house says poverty.

And Potemkin village.

#11 mark on 06.23.16 at 6:21 pm

What kind of dog is that?

#12 Lulu on 06.23.16 at 6:27 pm

Yes, in 90 days, when new rules implement, also new help will on the way, rate cut from BoC and 35-40 am is coming to your doorsteps, so it even out the new rules, haha

5M for this beauty, isn’t a bit of a deal of the century? come on, a big piece of land can grow your own food and chicken coop, that’s money saving and the owner can properly has an ADU there as well for some income, not bad. Now this house seems a bit more affordable, isn’t it?

#13 Silly History on 06.23.16 at 6:32 pm

2001:
U.S. Federal Reserve lowers federal funds rate 11 times, from 6.5% to 1.75%

2002:
Annual home price appreciation of 10% or more in California, Florida, and most Northeastern states.

2003+:
The U.S. Federal Reserve fails to use its supervisory and regulatory authority over banks, mortgage underwriters and other lenders, who abandon loan standards.

2004:
U.S. homeownership rate peaked with an all-time high of 69.2 percent.

2004–2005:
Arizona, California, Florida, Hawaii, and Nevada record price increases in excess of 25% per year.

2004–2005:
Autumn; booming housing market halts abruptly; from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2006, median prices nationwide dropped off 3.3 percent.

2006:
Continued market slowdown.
Prices are flat, home sales fall, resulting in inventory buildup.
U.S. Home Construction Index is down over 40% as of mid-August 2006 compared to a year earlier.

2007:
Year-to-year decreases in both U.S. home sales and home prices accelerates rather than slowing.
Rising interest rates threaten to depress prices further.
Since their peak in July 2006, home prices in 20 major regions have dropped 6.6 percent.
Sales and prices are accelerating rather than bottoming out due to “eminently rational behaviour” based on “a psychological point where expectations of future price declines have become entrenched”.

2008:
A total of 3,157,806 foreclosures were filed on 2,330,483 properties during the year, up 81 percent from 2007.

#14 Julia on 06.23.16 at 6:33 pm

That nine grand in property tax, is that on the new and inflated value?
Pet peeve of mine when I read listings showing taxes on an old teardown even though the listing is for a monster infill house.

#15 Smartalox on 06.23.16 at 6:37 pm

Brexit vote is going to go down like the plebiscite that saw Newfoundland and Labrador join Canada in 1949.

The vote ran in three parts: at first, a choice between continuing with a government managed by unelected civil servants, of the British government in London, and The Dominion of Newfoundland with a responsible government, elected by Newfoundlanders.

With the British government bankrupt In the wake of WW2, a second referendum was proposed: responsible government, management by Britain or confederation with Canada were the choices.

With no clear majority, a run-off was held, with only two choices: responsible government, or confederation with Canada.

Legend has it that when the results of this last vote were counted, it was 52.3% for responsible government, and 47.7% in favour of independence.

This was not the result that the British overseers wanted, fearing that independence for Newfoundland would be overshadowed by manipulation from the US, the US base at Gander being a major employer in Newfoundland at the time.

So the senior members of the elections committee took to a room to discuss the results privately, and soon emerged, results in hand:

For Confederation: 52.3%
For Independence: 47.7%

#16 Let's invest together on 06.23.16 at 6:43 pm

If all of the people that leave a comment today pitch in just under 30k we should be able to buy this place.

Think about it. At least 25% returns for at least another year so that’s 7k for each of us.

Lets keep the gas bag going for old time sake.

lol.

#17 In 90 Days You 2.0 on 06.23.16 at 6:45 pm

#9

In 3 months we will see:
1. one rate hike
2. a sudden 10-15% drop in YVR mo/mo
3. CAD lower 10%

———-

Wishful thinking….

In 90 days you will see:

1. Yellin kicking the can down the road again on rate increases due to x global condition and Y vague US economic data
2. An increase in RE prices as people continue to panic and flood the market before the feds “do anything” (like that will happen)
3. CAD same rate

#18 Jenmick on 06.23.16 at 6:47 pm

So who will buy this house ???, as you keep harping on and on about…no average buyer comes even remotely close to being able to afford this or even the average for YVR, so something more than just debt must be fueling this market……the recent Demaris report, amongst many others, has helped confirm the presence and effect of foreign money….isn’t it about time that you reported fully on this !!!!… instead of dismissing it as largely irrelevant.

#19 Andrew Woburn on 06.23.16 at 6:49 pm

Here’s a chart that shows the change in the social/income class structure of the US since 1980. It seems to counteract the prevailing narrative that the middle class is being “hollowed out”. The upper middle class share increased by 16% and the lower class share hardly moved.

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/451473e81730c5a3ae680c489/images/c18a44a0-2f4d-4cda-b480-246cbf951737.jpg

#20 conan on 06.23.16 at 6:51 pm

Gibraltar votes 93% remain…… no surprise here as Gibraltar is a big military base that Spain is not a big fan of.

#21 Blacksheep on 06.23.16 at 6:55 pm

“The last thing they want is lower prices”
————————————–
When your right, your right…..

Remember folks, don’t fight the system.

#22 tundra pete on 06.23.16 at 6:57 pm

I think that Van house is right in the ball park as far as price goes. Should receive offers above asking and be sold shortly.

Remember, they are not making any new land, prices always go up, the chinese have a new fleet of boats coming over from the mainland, it’s too expensive to pay for your landlords maintenance, you are still throwing away money on rent, your mom knows the market better than anyone and [email protected] says so.

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.23.16 at 6:58 pm

@#172 Gonkman
“But hey.. everyone hates lazy useless Public Servants..

Until they need to..

1. Use Roads and Infrastructure
2. Educate their children
3. Flush their toilets
4. Ensure the Drugs they take don’t kill them
5. Go to the hospital
6. Ensure Border Security and screen all goods coming into the country
etc…etc…etc..

Now think how things would be run if Private Companies ran all these things… really think.
*******************************************

Hmmm.
1. Govt employees dont build or maintain roads. Subcontractors do.
2. Private schools regularly rank above public schools in universal testing.
3. What was the name of that town in Ontario that several people died of E Coli because the lazy govt employee falsified the water tests? Walkerton?
4. The privately owned pharmacies with self employed pharmacists?
5. Ambulance, paramedics, nurses and doctors can(and do) work very happily in the private sector as self employed entrepreneurs with much less paperwork.
6. There are no illegal aliens, no illegal drugs and no illegal guns because the border guards are public servants……..perhaps we should privitize that too?

gee that took about 30 seconds of “thinking”

Union shop steward are we?

#24 Chaddywack on 06.23.16 at 6:59 pm

My co-worker at work today said it best:

“The government cannot allow prices to fall in Vancouver because it would be two big of a hit to people like me who bought years ago and need the money for retirement, and for people like my kids who bought in the last year and have massive mortgages for 30 years. They will just make it go down a bit….maybe 5% and then it will stay flat for awhile.”

#25 Brazil ex-pat on 06.23.16 at 7:06 pm

90 days from now

No rate hike

results from Brexit (rigged if they remain)

and finally from Vancouver……ACTUAL stats on ownership.

#26 conan on 06.23.16 at 7:08 pm

Newcastle: Remain wins. Predicted to be so, but it was a very close result. Demolishing what the experts thought would happen.

#27 Scumop on 06.23.16 at 7:13 pm

Somehow, in some way, the task force will end up being owned by vested interests who will ensure max profits to themselves and their orgs. Ordinary people, aka tax fodder, will play no part in it.

Maybe I’m just too jaded.

#28 family beagle on 06.23.16 at 7:14 pm

Isn’t this the part of the game where banks lock the masses into underwater cages while gov turns on full suction taxes? Rhetorical: a question to which we know the answer, yet pose in order to draw attention to the obvious. This is textbook crowd harvesting. I want to thank the banls for using my life as a means to park cash.

Eventually home owners become the bitter bellied liveaboard landlords of tomorrow. Dollars will become scarcer. When they can’t sell, amateur speculators will jack rents to cover borrowing cost. Good tenent moves to affordable new reit building. Borrowers are forced to pick from society’s dregs or liquidate portfolio props as credit dries up and the dominos fall, likely moving into their last chess piece while learning lawn mower repair.

Wild card is…can we import enough buyers? Go Christy go. Sell Christy sell. Round ’em up bring ’em back, Christy.

(Looks like the rare suburban armoire seal.)

#29 Ret on 06.23.16 at 7:18 pm

I have lost faith in JT, Morneau, or Poloz to do anything to address anything.

#30 Brydle604 on 06.23.16 at 7:24 pm

#11 Mark
That’s a Sea Dawg

#31 Rexx Rock on 06.23.16 at 7:25 pm

Just let the market correct itself.Both To and Van have a strong economy and wage growth so its still affordable if people are still buying.Common sense and common logic.It will all stop when the price is to high.

#32 JimH on 06.23.16 at 7:26 pm

Brexit is dead.

PredictWise now has Donald Trump’s chance of becoming POTUS at 23%; lowest yet.

Finally, the rumor circulating the net that you can send your dog and cat poop to the address below to be re-cycled in an environmentally acceptable way is most likely and probably totally and completely false and untrue:

Westboro Baptist Church
3701 SW 12th Street
Topeka, KS 66604

#33 Doug t on 06.23.16 at 7:26 pm

Buy low
Sell high
Let the banksters poke you in the eye
And the Feds Janet Yellen
Will one day be convicted a felon
The system forever rolls on and on
And you and I have been taken by the con
How to reset this mess
Is anyone’s guess
Timing is crucial and timing is hard
And the house is ALWAYS hiding a hidden card

#34 dr talc on 06.23.16 at 7:28 pm

5.5 mill?
= lots of room for TO to go up.

#35 conan on 06.23.16 at 7:33 pm

The British Pound is now down 6 %….. early results are eerie for the stay side and the traders.

#36 dr talc on 06.23.16 at 7:36 pm

‘action in 90 days’?
In 90 days a 416 bungalow will cost 25k more

#37 JP on 06.23.16 at 7:40 pm

With this distraction (brexit) almost over, we can go back to the regularly scheduled program. At least until the doomers and gold pumpers hype up some new issue. 2 or 3 fed rate hikes coming, mark my words. What happens down south will dictate what will happen in Canada. The feds in Ottawa see the writing on the wall, that is why they will “act now” then blame it on the Harper government when SHF. Position yourself accordingly.

#38 For those about to flop... on 06.23.16 at 7:47 pm

#18 Jenmick on 06.23.16 at 6:47 pm
So who will buy this house ???, as you keep harping on and on about…no average buyer comes even remotely close to being able to afford this or even the average for YVR, so something more than just debt must be fueling this market……the recent Demaris report, amongst many others, has helped confirm the presence and effect of foreign money….isn’t it about time that you reported fully on this !!!!… instead of dismissing it as largely irrelevant.

////////////////////////////

If I was a betting man, this is what I would bet on happening.
A developer will put in an offer for something in between 4 and 4.5 million and build the biggest house they can and try and sell it for in between 6 and 6.5.
Nothing palatial , just as many bedrooms as possible and a respectable stuccoed house.

As for the person who wants us all the put 30k in.
I will skip that part and work free for six months on the new build.

I have told this story before but it probably won’t hurt to repeat it.

One of Vancouvers Westside premiere developers bought some property in Shaughnessy only to find out they could not build a McMansion on it because of where it was and it was built I believe before 1954.

There are a lot of people in this city that have no clue what they are doing but have not had to pay the price for all the mistakes that have been made in the last 15 years.

They paid 4.5 for the block of land and we’re lucky that some other developers didn’t do their due diligence as well and took it off their hands. They were lucky that the market did not crash at this time as well.The company is sizeable but that could have been a two million dollar mistake.

I am working on a house at the moment where the developers are playing Chinese roulette…

M42BC

#39 FreeMArket on 06.23.16 at 7:47 pm

The problem with government solution is that they see the house price as only going up. Price cannot go down.

Then they come up with a solution to help people get in at the current price (Because remember price cannot go down). Then there solution backfire and make price go even higher.

An extreme example of the kind of solution the government might have would be to pay for the first million for the price of a properly. Then when someone want to buy a vancouver special for 1.7 million, the government will give you 1 million. We all know that by doing so the price will rise rapidly to 2.7 million. The government don’t know that though.

Government solution works this way. They can never make something that will bring price down, what they do is put thing in place so that you are more able to pay the higher price… resulting in price going higher.

By the way CHMC was put in place to make sure people can afford a home… Yes we can all afford now that the government cover all risk for the bank.

#40 John on 06.23.16 at 7:53 pm

How is it possible that house is 2400 sq. ft? Looks tiny. Are they counting the basement?

#41 Ace Goodheart on 06.23.16 at 7:55 pm

Definition of Canadian: Yay, the government is going to intervene! We’re saved!

#42 Brexit Will Happen! on 06.23.16 at 7:57 pm

In the last half hour of vote counting there has been a HUGE surge in leave votes, from under 20% to over 47%, and growing.

Game changer for the world. Stay tuned……

#43 Vancouver Troy on 06.23.16 at 7:58 pm

“four in ten have at least 450% more debt than income.”

Does that mean a person making $100k and owes $450k on a $1m house for example? Is that really that bad?

#44 Brexit Will Happen! on 06.23.16 at 8:00 pm

The latest BBC update puts leave in the LEAD!!!!!!!!

266,721 to 259,790

HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!

#45 Pale Ale on 06.23.16 at 8:06 pm

“(…) while trying not to further depress Halifax, Montreal, Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, Saskatoon or Calgary”

I don’t know about other markets, but Montreal has a lot to correct in spite of the popular narrative that prices are “affordable” here.

Adjusted for inflation, a house in Montreal costing 221k in 2000 would be costing 300K in 2016, however such house now sells for 424K. Over 56% above inflation.

CMHC’s report on Montreal affordability, while acknowledging that the situation is not as dire as in YVR and 416, affirms real estate is overvalued in the city in spite of prices being flat because of poor fundamentals and rapid price increases in the last decade:

“The price level remains higher than what would be expected from the market’s fundamentals (economic and demographic). We should specify that the moderate evidence of overvaluation do not reflect a current acceleration in the growth of prices, but rather the fact that fundamentals have not yet caught up with the strong increase in prices observed over the last decade.”

In other words: let’s not call it affordable just because *now* prices are flat. They are flat but stuck at a level that’s still too high.

Speaking of fundamentals, the average household income in Montreal is:

– $63.038 according to Teranet
– $46.920 according to MoneySense

According to CMHC “The average price growth outpaced the increase in the personal disposable income per capita during the entire period.”

Full report: https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/productDetail.cfm?lang=en&cat=192&itm=13&fr=1466726278131

#46 those who are about to cry salute you…. on 06.23.16 at 8:10 pm

“bi-polar housing market”?

I hate being bi-polar, it’s awesome….

#47 bdwy sktrn on 06.23.16 at 8:12 pm

1.8% Reporting
Votes
Remain a member of the European Union
49.3%
259,790
Leave the European Union
50.7%
266,721
—————————–
leave started out strong but remain is getting warmed up

#48 ROTFL on 06.23.16 at 8:15 pm

I read it different.

[G&M] The group will study “a broad range of factors that affect supply and demand for housing, the issue of affordability, and the stability of the housing market,”

[G&M] “… the group would include officials from the federal government, the Ontario and British Columbia provincial governments, and the cities of Vancouver and Toronto …”

Some members of this group will have been bought and paid for [IMHO]. Nobody will want to have their fingerprints on anything that lowers prices (“stability” LOL).

It’ll take a while to form the group, and then they’ll take a while to draft terms of reference, and then it’ll take a while to study the issue, and then they will call for the collection of more data, and — have they run out the clock on the federal and provincial elections yet?

#49 For those about to flop... on 06.23.16 at 8:16 pm

For those people on the blog who’s remote is missing I will tell you that BBC has a 4 hr special on Stexit/ Lexit.

M42BC

#50 Say What? on 06.23.16 at 8:21 pm

“It’s a quirky law of rising markets – higher prices breed higher prices.” – Garth

———————————————

Hey, it is what it is. Many factors result in these high valuations. Yes, that includes low rates, Chinese dudes, CMHC, stability, desirable weather, massive immigration, etc. If it wasn’t so, it wouldn’t be so.

You missed the biggest: greed and fear. — Garth

#51 Brexit Will Happen! on 06.23.16 at 8:23 pm

370,404 to 344,535

The Leave side is delivering a total smackdown to the self-serving one percenters, the criminal elites like Cameron who offshore their money and undermine the economic and real democracy.

This is HUGE!!!!!!

#52 bdwy sktrn on 06.23.16 at 8:24 pm

Remain
45%
285,677
Leave
55%
345,073

============
landslide?

#53 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 8:29 pm

Not so fast Gartho

https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=brexit

#54 Brazil ex-pat on 06.23.16 at 8:30 pm

#46 those who are about to cry salute you…. on 06.23.16 at 8:10 pm
“bi-polar housing market”?

I hate being bi-polar, it’s awesome….

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

O que?

I LOVE being bi-polar, é suga bolas…..

LEAVE is ahead by 10%

#55 conan on 06.23.16 at 8:34 pm

Experts weighing in……. talk of constitutional conundrum if Brexit wins. Quincy M.E. not signing the death certificate. People chewing on their pencils.

Looking like a coin flip.

#56 Brexit Will Happen! on 06.23.16 at 8:36 pm

“Now, back to Brexit.”

I see you’ve redacted your original comment about what a yawn the inevitable Brexit ‘Remain’ vote was going to be, eh Garth ;)

Leave: 473,688 to 460,712

At the moment, no yawn. — Garth

#57 ww1 on 06.23.16 at 8:36 pm

Why are people getting excited about BREXIT results when less than 3% of the ballots have been counted?

Because the folks who come here have no life. — Garth

#58 For those about to flop... on 06.23.16 at 8:40 pm

46.5 million people signed up to vote for Brexit.

Some people stayed home because they are scared of rain.

Some people went out to vote because they are scared of immigrants.

This thing has a way to go…

M42BC

#59 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 8:42 pm

Because the folks who come here have no life. — Garth

Better to be a No-life than a Low-Life

#60 the biggest on 06.23.16 at 8:45 pm

You missed the biggest: greed and fear. — Garth

—-

But that’s Capitalism itself… do you have an issue with that?

#61 conan on 06.23.16 at 8:46 pm

Lamenting about the rain and flooding in London. Low voter turn out feared in some Remain strongholds.

#62 bdy sktn on 06.23.16 at 8:46 pm

It’s all over.

Pound getting pounded .

Made 1m on a smokey forex trade. Woot.

#63 Brazil ex-pat on 06.23.16 at 8:48 pm

#59 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 8:42 pm
Because the folks who come here have no life. — Garth

Better to be a No-life than a Low-Life

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Anyone ever heard of “multiple tabs open” on your laptop?

#64 Ray Skunk on 06.23.16 at 8:48 pm

Grab yourselves some beers and settle in for the evening…

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36612368

#65 Brexit Will Happen! on 06.23.16 at 8:52 pm

HOLY COW!!!!!!!

Leave: 723,486 to 675,723

Message to David Cameron?

Get the f out of OUR country you criminal, money laundering POS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#66 TRON on 06.23.16 at 8:53 pm

Using the ‘average’ price in Van to calculate affordability is not accurate IMO. I think it would be a more accurate statistic is you calculate by separating the west from the east if income data can be extrapolated for the two.

#67 family beagle on 06.23.16 at 8:56 pm

It will be peak $ house when the govt narrative shifts from ‘home affordability’ to ‘price sustainability’. Sounds like that’s starting now.

#68 Damifino on 06.23.16 at 8:56 pm

#40 John

“How is it possible that house is 2400 sq. ft? Looks tiny. Are they counting the basement?”
—————————

Of course the basement is counted. Down there will be a crappy little suite built in 1956, smelling of dry rot and teeming with spiders.

But details about the house are utterly irreverent. It’s actually a liability against the land, but not a big one when you consider the price of the dirt under it.

#69 WUL on 06.23.16 at 8:59 pm

As we watch the Brexit referendum unfold, I profess to having only a basic understanding of the issues.

However, I am pulling hard for the Leave side. That is because I hold onto quaint and romantic notions that sovereignty and democratically elected people holding the levers of power are good things to aspire to.

Either way, the nation now has a big fracture line drawn through it. The next effort to leave the EU might not be so genteel.

#70 common sense on 06.23.16 at 9:01 pm

#65 Brexit

Easy laddie..it’s still early…

#71 Brazil ex-pat on 06.23.16 at 9:04 pm

#70 common sense on 06.23.16 at 9:01 pm
#65 Brexit

Easy laddie..it’s still early…

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The LEAVE is surging 10,000 votes ahead every ten minutes…..its not early…..its over……

#72 bdwy sktrn on 06.23.16 at 9:07 pm

you know when you have to zoom out the chart timeframe twice to see the plunge, it’s getting good (gbp/usd)

pound has lost over a nickel. now +7c.

the market can get the herd wrong it seems

get ready to buy the bounceback over the next week.

#73 A Yank in BC on 06.23.16 at 9:07 pm

Watching the BBC live. Announcer’s are beginning to look a little stunned at the results so far.

#74 bdwy sktrn on 06.23.16 at 9:08 pm

#70 common sense on 06.23.16 at 9:01 pm
#65 Brexit

Easy laddie..it’s still early…

===============

it was over 20 min ago UUUUUUUUUUUUK forever!

#75 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 9:10 pm

#70 common sense on 06.23.16 at 9:01 pm
#65 Brexit

Easy laddie..it’s still early…
…..

“If you don’t eat yourr meat, you can’t have any pudding.”

Watch them feast on meatless pudding teacher. Even with the power of MSM remain loss.

The leave can thank Orlando for the loss. Another botched operation by the machine. They are not thinking through things lately.

My consulting rate just went up again..

#76 acdel on 06.23.16 at 9:11 pm

Go Brexit Go, according to Garth I have no life; oh well!

#77 conan on 06.23.16 at 9:12 pm

BBC Operator working overtime on the phone. They need to fill the Green Room with people who can talk about leave winning. Looks like BBC banked on stay experts to carry the evening.

#78 salonist on 06.23.16 at 9:16 pm

brexit live

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/eu-referendum-will-it-be-brexit-exit-poll-and-results-live/

#79 joblo on 06.23.16 at 9:17 pm

Remain will WIN!
it’s rigged.

#80 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 9:19 pm

#76 acdel on 06.23.16 at 9:11 pm
Go Brexit Go, according to Garth I have no life; oh well!

Your in a room full of no life’s. Don’t beat yourself up.

#81 White Crock BC on 06.23.16 at 9:21 pm

Oil at $50

CAD down 1.3 cents in the last 16 hours.

Brexit?

#82 gogo on 06.23.16 at 9:23 pm

You said yesterday Brexit wouldn’t happen… “Right” as usual :) But at least your probabilities increase about Trump.

Actually I referenced the polls, the odds, and the bets being made on financial markets. Few believed Britons would vote against their own economic self-interest. — Garth

#83 conan on 06.23.16 at 9:27 pm

Futures for London markets are for a major sell off. Five percent plus if Brexit takes the night.

Even if Stay wins this is not over. I hear there are 4 countries in Europe that also want the referendum option.

Tick Tock on the EU. Writing is on the wall.

#84 bdwy sktrn on 06.23.16 at 9:31 pm

ack! the damn scots are flooding the remain side and pushing it ahead!!!

most of england still to come.

ok , so it’s not quite over yet…..

#85 toronto1 on 06.23.16 at 9:40 pm

WOW, the banks got what they wanted– FED intervention.

This will be bad

I predict a claw back on CMHC insurable home to max 750K ( will help limit liability).

Slow down in extending the CMHC liabilities-

Cap gains taxes coming very soon, to be raised from the current 50% to 75-100% if you own rental property, now is the time too sell (govt never meet a tax they didnt like)

Change in CMHC requirements when purchasing property (counting rental income at 50% vs 100% now)

Speculator levy if you own more then one property

Banks forced to enforce lending rations

already coming this fall are tighter capital requirements for banks.

This will be bad– the market should just correct on its own.

#86 acdel on 06.23.16 at 9:40 pm

#80 Smoking Man

#76 acdel on 06.23.16 at 9:11 pm
Go Brexit Go, according to Garth I have no life; oh well!

Your in a room full of no life’s. Don’t beat yourself up.

—————————————————–

Best come back of the night, ha,ha,ha!

#87 Brazil ex-pat on 06.23.16 at 9:43 pm

Braveheart – “The problem with Scotland….is that its full of Scots !!”

Scotland is skewing the REMAIN vote. Too bad there are only 9 areas left to declare. England has 283 and they are 250K to the LEAVE side. Go ENGLAND GO !!

#88 gogo on 06.23.16 at 9:47 pm

Anyways, I love reading your blog. Not looking for logic or financial advise :) Keep up the good work.

#89 Keith in Calgary on 06.23.16 at 9:52 pm

Dr. Robbie Babins-Wagner, CEO of the non-profit Calgary Counselling Centre, says she’s seeing an increase in the level of distress exhibited by her ex-oil worker patients, linking it to a “second wave” of anxiety as workers who were laid off in the past 18 months approach the end of their severance money without finding a comparable job.

“I think that’s probably the biggest shock for people — there are jobs but they may not pay as well as the oilpatch did,” she said. “Work conditions may be different. This is a huge reset.”

She said losing benefits can be upsetting even if the perks were far above what most non-oilpatch employees would expect.

—————–

Let the crash begin.

#90 barb on 06.23.16 at 9:52 pm

Sanity is prevailing, with the majority at Remain…at least right now.

Just think…Wales has voted to leave, and they get the most subsidies (of all) from the European Union relationship.
Either bad teachers or no schools?
Nope…just idiocy.

#91 gladiator on 06.23.16 at 9:53 pm

Whoever has the final Bresit result ready is playing a very smart game: give the simpletons some hope and adrenaline first and at the end just release the result that was ready for a long time: remain.
No exit polls, no pens for marking the votes, early polls showing “neck in neck” remain and exit. Too evident that this is easy to rig, but whoever will raise any shit about it will have absolutely no way of proving that it was not fair/clean.
Someone is having the last laugh, and it’s a remainer.

#92 Joseph R. on 06.23.16 at 9:56 pm

“Actually I referenced the polls, the odds, and the bets being made on financial markets. Few believed Britons would vote against their own economic self-interest. — Garth”

Xenophobia has that effect on people:

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/23/12005814/brexit-eu-referendum-immigrants

#93 BobC on 06.23.16 at 10:02 pm

Actually I referenced the polls, the odds, and the bets being made on financial markets. Few believed Britons would vote against their own economic self-interest. — Garth

Maybe some things are more important then money?

#94 Trojan House on 06.23.16 at 10:04 pm

You gotta know when the politicians tell you something, say like remaining in the EU, then it’s time to exit. They always have an ulterior motive.

Stupid, destructive generalization. — Garth

#95 Apocalypse2016 on 06.23.16 at 10:07 pm

THIS IS IT!

A Brexit vote will unravel the entire global economy!

Apocalypse 2016 begins before dawn!

It has started, people.

PREPARE.

#96 Snowboid on 06.23.16 at 10:11 pm

Five million, what a joke… here’s my choice:

http://tours.tourfactory.com/tours/tour.asp?t=1530890&idx=1

Plus enough money left over to start a business in Scottsdale and get your green card! Sadly, I’m four million short – but I would be gone in an instant otherwise.

#97 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 10:11 pm

When you don’t fit it.

When you don’t fit in with city hipsters, or with cowboy boats.

You move to Shlong Branch. Epa centre of freaks live here.

#98 the other white meat (pork) on 06.23.16 at 10:12 pm

Actually I referenced the polls, the odds, and the bets being made on financial markets. Few believed Britons would vote against their own economic self-interest. — Garth

The people who are losing their jobs and facing stagnant wages (largely due to the influx of Poles) are voting in favour of their own economic self interest. The folk who inhabit and make their living in “The City” are voting in favour of their own economic self interest. The two are opposed because the only way the people in “The City” can make a profit is by wage suppression and price manipulation (Libor etc). Pay workers a living wage and those people in “The City” might have to get real jobs themselves, and we can’t have that.

This isn’t about race or nationality, those are just labels used for shaming commoners into silence. This is, and always has been about class and how different segments of society earn their living. More people are starting to see that they have little or nothing to lose, especially the poor in those hollowed out northern industrial towns. That nut who killed the MP might be a harbinger of things to come if some of these issues aren’t dealt with.

#99 BOOM! on 06.23.16 at 10:15 pm

Wow, the BREXIT vote is close! Much closer than I would have expected.

Still, at the end of the day think short term economic self-interest will trump what is probably best for the nation. (sigh)

Is it any wonder there are so FEW millionaires out here?

M64WI

#100 fleabitten monkey on 06.23.16 at 10:15 pm

#24 Chaddywack – that is f*ing priceless but seriously how some folks think. Entitlement to no risk of loss. God given right the maintain equity in homes and not lose a penny of ridiculous gains made in the last 5 – 7 years, all propped up by government policy.

#101 For those about to flop... on 06.23.16 at 10:18 pm

2 days ago that guy was holding a sign beside the road asking for donations for a hair weave and now he has himself a job on BCC giving colour commentary.

Jolly good show old chap…

M42BC

#102 conan on 06.23.16 at 10:23 pm

Re: #95 Apocalypse2016 on 06.23.16 at 10:07 pm

” Apocalypse 2016 begins before dawn!”
_____________________

Now with Zombies….

Wait!!!! There is more

Buy now and receive not one, but two Emergency Budgets.

#103 drydock on 06.23.16 at 10:29 pm

#95 Apocalypse2016 on 06.23.16 at 10:07 pm

THIS IS IT!

A Brexit vote will unravel the entire global economy!

Apocalypse 2016 begins before dawn!

It has started, people.

PREPARE.

0101010101010101010101010101010101

Zombie,vampire,werewolf,asteroid,Niburu,comet,plague,super volcano,tectonic plate,nuclear winter,alien invasion?
Inquiring minds need to know.

#104 For those about to flop... on 06.23.16 at 10:30 pm

To stop people getting confused in Scotland they should have just had two words on the ballot

Aye

Bye…

M42BC

#105 santa claus on 06.23.16 at 10:32 pm

i hate to be the one to the to break it to you kids
but elections are fixed,
that’s right, the majority of Scotts did not vote to stay in
UK
the majority of Ontarians did not vote for that sister in Queens Park

#106 Rule Britannia on 06.23.16 at 10:33 pm

Something about a yawner Garth … seems that got deleted!! Ouch.

Article 50……….

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.23.16 at 10:34 pm

Poll results from the xenophobic hinterland……

Lets see what happens when the huge cities start being counted…..

#108 bdwy sktrn on 06.23.16 at 10:34 pm

#66 TRON on 06.23.16 at 8:53 pm
Using the ‘average’ price in Van to calculate affordability is not accurate IMO. I think it would be a more accurate statistic is you calculate by separating the west from the east if income data can be extrapolated for the two.
————————

or you can just use the avg citywide income to apply to east side houses because west side houses are not bought with local incomes. haven’t been for years now.

and WOW what a race – leave fights back to the top once again – gbp whipsawing, but at new lows now.

go democracy.

#109 Rule Britannia on 06.23.16 at 10:40 pm

1

When Britain first, at Heaven’s command
Arose from out the azure main;
This was the charter of the land,
And guardian angels sang this strain:

“Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
“Britons never will be slaves.”

2

The nations, not so blest as thee,
Must, in their turns, to tyrants fall;
While thou shalt flourish great and free,
The dread and envy of them all.

“Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
“Britons never will be slaves.”

3

Still more majestic shalt thou rise,
More dreadful, from each foreign stroke;
As the loud blast that tears the skies,
Serves but to root thy native oak.

“Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
“Britons never will be slaves.”

4

Thee haughty tyrants ne’er shall tame:
All their attempts to bend thee down,
Will but arouse thy generous flame;
But work their woe, and thy renown.

“Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
“Britons never will be slaves.”

5

To thee belongs the rural reign;
Thy cities shall with commerce shine:
All thine shall be the subject main,
And every shore it circles thine.

“Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
“Britons never will be slaves.”

6

The Muses, still with freedom found,
Shall to thy happy coast repair;
Blest Isle! With matchless beauty crown’d,
And manly hearts to guard the fair.

“Rule, Britannia! rule the waves:
“Britons never will be slaves.”

#110 Cloudy on 06.23.16 at 10:40 pm

#69 WUL on 06.23.16 at 8:59 pm
As we watch the Brexit referendum unfold, I profess to having only a basic understanding of the issues.

However, I am pulling hard for the Leave side. That is because I hold onto quaint and romantic notions that sovereignty and democratically elected people holding the levers of power are good things to aspire to.

Either way, the nation now has a big fracture line drawn through it. The next effort to leave the EU might not be so genteel.
————————————————————
I agree 100% with you on sovereignty and I hope this sets a worldwide precedent. Everyone is discounting that if they leave, they can carry on as friendly neighbors. I think the fear mongering is overblown about the repercussions. Britain will carry on.

—————————————————————–
#59 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 8:42 pm
Because the folks who come here have no life. — Garth

Better to be a No-life than a Low-Life
——————————————————————-
Smoking Man speaking some truth!

#111 For those about to flop... on 06.23.16 at 10:43 pm

Snowy at 96.

Hey Snowy ,I know you like the desert but check out this one for £500k

M42BC

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/travel-news-cheap-uk-holidays-luxury-breaks-more-daily-star/524733/Buy-private-island-UK-Harbour-Island-Scotland

#112 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 10:52 pm

Going to be a photo finish

#113 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 10:55 pm

Now who was it that said short cable
Hum…..

Now let me search the archives…

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#114 Ontario's Left Coast on 06.23.16 at 10:57 pm

Not looking good for the Remains… Mayhem on the markets tomorrow. GLTA.

#115 X on 06.23.16 at 10:57 pm

Not expecting much out of Morneau and the cold water he says he is going to throw on the RE market…..all talk, no politician wants to look like the bad guy….

#116 Carlyle on 06.23.16 at 10:57 pm

I love you Garth but that post change from yawn to the pound plummeting lol. If you were wrong on this could you be wrong about Trump?

Did you not see this coming? I ask that respectfully I’ve been following your advice since 2011 as has my family who I got onto your blog. You’ve helped us in huge ways financially and for that I thank you.

I reported the odds and the polls. Markets were expecting no surprise, believing people to be rational. — Garth

#117 Ole Doberman on 06.23.16 at 11:03 pm

Here are live results of brexit, leave is winning:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-results-live-brexit-most-likely-outcome-says-leadi/

#118 Yuus bin Haad on 06.23.16 at 11:07 pm

Pay attention kids – this is one of those once-in-a-lifetime events – and it’s global … peak government!

#119 john on 06.23.16 at 11:08 pm

But seriously.. who would buy such an affordable house?

#120 Ole Doberman on 06.23.16 at 11:08 pm

Gold is going crazy to upside, Armageddon could be upon us!

#121 John on 06.23.16 at 11:08 pm

Brexit vote s big yawn?….!!!!!!! Wrong Garth. Looks like it’s gonna be a long day at the firm on Friday.

#122 gut check on 06.23.16 at 11:10 pm

Smoking Man,

I need to know where to get one of these cowboy boats you speak of.

:)

#123 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 11:18 pm

Sort of hammered what else is new.

People want to know what lies in garthos delete folder.

Not I.

I want to read the Smoking Man hate email Gartho must get daily. Let’s face it. Conservatives are busy trying to figure out how to make more money. Don’t have time to bitch.

Now the entitled lefties. The eternal victim must go bat shit crazy with my drunkin thump punches.

And knowing the nature of the polite Canadians. They would rather politely go behind the scenes than confront the ice pick in the eye ball of there belief system.

Thank God the ice melts in the summer. If I had to face this mob on skates I would be doomed.

Dr Smokey Man
PhD Herdonomics.

#124 Life among the Stars on 06.23.16 at 11:18 pm

#113 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 10:55 pm

Now who was it that said short cable
Hum…..

Now let me search the archives…

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

How much did ya make smoker dude?!!!

#125 John in Mtl on 06.23.16 at 11:19 pm

On Brexit: The Brits would be fools to remain in the EU and let some Brussels technocrat-criminal-scumbags continue to dictate how the British People should live.

It isn’t always about money, Sir Garth; there’s lots more at stake, a lot more.

Blokes ! Take your country back!!!

#126 Brits tired of Muslims trashing their hoods on 06.23.16 at 11:20 pm

DELETED

#127 Love My Kia on 06.23.16 at 11:22 pm

I’m a very aroused gold-licker tonight

#128 Julie K. on 06.23.16 at 11:22 pm

Dawn of a new world order.

Stunning.

We will all remember when, one way or another.

#Brexit

#129 John in Mtl on 06.23.16 at 11:25 pm

“Markets were expecting no surprise, believing people to be rational.” — Garth

Leaving is the only “rational” thing to do!

#130 DILLIGAS on 06.23.16 at 11:25 pm

Whether it is Brexit or gracefully deflating a housing bubble, even a child knows you can’t unscramble eggs.

#131 TurnerNation on 06.23.16 at 11:28 pm

Wow. See y’all at VIX 30 tomorrow

#132 gut check on 06.23.16 at 11:28 pm

I heard that it doesn’t matter what happens with the referendum… just like it didn’t matter in Greece. Remember OXI? They oxied all right, but nothing happened.

#133 John in Mtl on 06.23.16 at 11:29 pm

From The Telegraph UK:
“Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt called the results so far “beyond comprehension”.
… He believes we can expect “long term uncertainty”:

Life itself is one long term uncertainty!!

If the Brits leave, life as we know it will go on, the sun will rise tomorrow, food will continue to grow, the trains will be on time.

#134 conan on 06.23.16 at 11:31 pm

Party mood becoming evident at Brexit Campaign HQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=549B76uehxo

#135 The real Kip on 06.23.16 at 11:32 pm

I’m wondering how binding this referendum will be tomorrow morning. Will the government be compelled to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act? This would be the Act that brought them into the EU, yes?

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1972/68/enacted

#136 Long Branch Apprentice on 06.23.16 at 11:34 pm

Suck it Socialism!

As if these clowns vote in pencil.

Tomorrow will be very interesting.

Thank goodness I know how to fish now.

Anyone else pumped for Free State of Jones?

#137 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 11:34 pm

#122 gut check on 06.23.16 at 11:10 pm
Smoking Man,

I need to know where to get one of these cowboy boats you speak of.
….

You just made my day…

Unfortunately cowboy boats are made a billion light years away. Think orange plasma flier.

#138 Brexit Will Happen! on 06.23.16 at 11:38 pm

Leave leads by 750,000!

As they say :)

GOOOOOOAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Take that, all you money-laundering Cameron elites and criminals!

The PEOPLE are speaking!!

This is a global moment, and people and better pay attention to what is happening and how it will spread.

#139 Jenmick on 06.23.16 at 11:40 pm

“The people who are losing their jobs and facing stagnant wages (largely due to the influx of Poles) are voting in favour of their own economic self interest. The folk who inhabit and make their living in “The City” are voting in favour of their own economic self interest. The two are opposed because the only way the people in “The City” can make a profit is by wage suppression and price manipulation (Libor etc). Pay workers a living wage and those people in “The City” might have to get real jobs themselves, and we can’t have that.

This isn’t about race or nationality, those are just labels used for shaming commoners into silence. This is, and always has been about class and how different segments of society earn their living. More people are starting to see that they have little or nothing to lose, especially the poor in those hollowed out northern industrial towns. That nut who killed the MP might be a harbinger of things to come if some of these issues aren’t dealt with.”

Absolutely 100% right !!!

#

#140 Love My Kia on 06.23.16 at 11:42 pm

ITV has declared a victory for leave

My gold is hot!

#141 not 1st on 06.23.16 at 11:43 pm

A beautiful day for democracy.

Once again, the elites misread the mood on the ground.

#142 BOOM! on 06.23.16 at 11:46 pm

BBC just called it…..they will LEAVE the E.U.

Sovereignty trumped ‘economic self-interest. What Now?
The pound off 10% from todays high to levels not seen since 1985. At least, it will help exports…..

Me thinks this is a trend setting vote… I’m an idiot.

M64WI

#143 BillyBob on 06.23.16 at 11:47 pm

Economics is a bit of a dark art, certainly not a science. To glibly imply that those voting leave are fools, acting against their own self-interest, is the very sort of “expert pronouncement” that the masses appear to be chafing at. Correct or not.

Obviously there will be great turmoil in the short-term if the vote does go “Leave”, and people will suffer through the transition. (Given how close the vote is, this will occur no matter the outcome at this point.) But it’s an insult to the intelligence of the voters to suggest they aren’t somewhat aware of this. If anything I’m surprised that people in this dumbed-down age would have the guts to vote against ANYTHING not status quo.

But to categorically state that a decision to leave the EU will result in financial armageddon is sheer nonsense, simply due to the fact that NO ONE can predict the fallout in such a complex situation.

As someone stated, there is more than simply economics involved. I only hope the many “elites”: the politicians, the bankers, the learned pundits, will accept the decision handed to them by the majority, graciously.

We’ll see.

#144 ww1 on 06.23.16 at 11:47 pm

Wow – BREXIT votes yes. It’s not over yet but …

So many new questions. Who gets to be British subject? Anyone who crossed the channel before today?

So complicated.

#145 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 11:48 pm

124 Life among the Stars on 06.23.16 at 11:18 pm
#113 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 10:55 pm

Now who was it that said short cable
Hum…..

Now let me search the archives…

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

How much did ya make smoker dude?!!!
….

I made nothing. You know Internet confessions can be used against you by CRA. And IRS
Now driven by hard core communism.

Communists are non creative Mal contents that hate gambling men that win.

#146 MF on 06.23.16 at 11:49 pm

They did it!! Well done!

MF

#147 gut check on 06.23.16 at 11:50 pm

#137 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 11:34 pm
#122 gut check on 06.23.16 at 11:10 pm
Smoking Man,

I need to know where to get one of these cowboy boats you speak of.
….

You just made my day…

Unfortunately cowboy boats are made a billion light years away. Think orange plasma flier.

_____________

I assume that the plasma flier has enough horses to tow a big old boat back to Earth… right? Let’s get going!

#148 Julie K. on 06.23.16 at 11:50 pm

Today #Brexit

Soon:

Grexit, Frexit, Swegone, Byeprus, Italeave, Fin-ished, Buhbyegium

(via Twitter)

109 retweets 110 likes

 Reply

 Retweet

109

Like
110

 More

#149 The real Kip on 06.23.16 at 11:51 pm

I think the UK made the correct choice and will be better off for it. Not so sure about the rest of the EU. Greece, Italy and Portugal to follow.

Still think Donald Trump can’t win The White House? He can win it alright and with the criminal Hillary helping him, he likely will win.

#150 TilJ on 06.23.16 at 11:51 pm

BBC has called it for Leave.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36615028

#151 slick on 06.23.16 at 11:51 pm

whilst I am surprised by the Brexit results,
I posted a few weeks ago that a big factor in the decision would be the English trying to control immigration. Not saying whether it is right or wrong, but electing a Muslim mayor to London had to be a wakeup call. Jo Cox’s murder may have sealed the vote, but I have heard no mention of a muslim influence in that killing. the Orlando shootings prolly factored in also.

#152 Yitzhak Rabin on 06.23.16 at 11:54 pm

“The pound is pounded as ‘Leave’ forces take early lead in UK referendum.”

And gold is up $100 and rising

Or £179 from the lows earlier in the day.

#153 John in Mtl on 06.23.16 at 11:54 pm

Nigel Farage’s controversial ‘victory’ speech:

“If the predications now are right this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people. We have fought against the multinationals, against the big merchant banks, against big politics, against lies against lies, corruption and deceit and today honesty and decency and belief in nation I think now is going to win.” …

I sincerely hope the British PEOPLE take back their country.

And let it be known I am a big fan of Mr Farage :)
(as if anyone cared LOL, but he’s on the right side of the divide, and that’s all that matters!)

#154 The real Kip on 06.23.16 at 11:54 pm

BBC has called it, the leave side has won.

#155 Ole Doberman on 06.23.16 at 11:54 pm

Every time there is cheering gold pops another $10

Does this mean the separatists are winning?

#156 Love My Kia on 06.23.16 at 11:56 pm

I reported the odds and the polls. Markets were expecting no surprise, believing people to be rational. — Garth
======================
Which people were they expecting to be rational? Rich people or poor people?

The only people paying the price tonight are the elites.

#157 Bottoms_Up on 06.23.16 at 11:56 pm

Britain leaving the EU should not be based on a 50%+1

Clear mandate to leave should be required….60% at least….plus voting should be mandatory….or those that don’t vote should be counted as “remain”. Ie, only make those wanting this drastic change go to the polls.

#158 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 11:57 pm

Ok I know my track record is second to none vs anyone on Bay street.

UCC just confirmed Trump will beat Hillary in a land slide.

Think dogs, what bet do you want to make to capitalize on that certaintee.

#159 bdy sktn on 06.23.16 at 11:58 pm

I have a forex question.

Why is Japanese yen killing usd. Why such a safe haven currency.

It and gold right now.

#160 palebird on 06.24.16 at 12:00 am

Brexit, yes indeed. Voting against their own self interest? On the contraire mon frere. Wrongo Gartho. It is about time someone told the establishment( IMF, EU, USA) which way to go. First of many… My bets were well placed..

#161 OffshoreObserver on 06.24.16 at 12:00 am

I hope the right thinkers in the world will take Brexit as a clarion call to take back the people’s power and reduce that of bureaucracy and government. The less chains of thought and enterprise!

The corollary is reduced taxation and a more sane allocation of resources.

#162 Bottoms_Up on 06.24.16 at 12:02 am

Scotland wants to remain (clear majority). First ripple effect of Britain leaving the EU will be a second referendum on Scotland separating from the UK:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36599102?intlink_from_url=http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120&link_location=live-reporting-story

#163 april on 06.24.16 at 12:02 am

According to a Vancouver real estate analyst Metro Vancouver housing has reached “price fatigue”.

#164 common sense on 06.24.16 at 12:02 am

Well, well, well..

Adios UK, EU finished within 3 years max.

No USA rate hike in the next 12 months 100% guaranteed.

The shit has hit the fan…Lawyers, Guns and money could not stop this train.

Love my Gold stocks.

#165 BillyBob on 06.24.16 at 12:02 am

Well the Telegraph has called it, anyway.

Brexit it is.

Next up, several other EU members. And Scotland.

Market volatility = opportunity.

#166 Sideshow Rob on 06.24.16 at 12:03 am

Great day for Britain and for democracy.

Not so great for the markets tomorrow. Dow going down 600 right off the bat. However longer term this is great for North American markets. Big money will start flowing from the failed EU and will park itself here in the coming months and years. I wouldn’t even be surprised if the North American markets reverse to positive by the end of the day tomorrow.

#167 Sebee on 06.24.16 at 12:03 am

Brexit wins. Gonna be an exciting Friday on markets.

#168 Brydle604 on 06.24.16 at 12:06 am

Sovereignty wins
Britex appears to have won!
Democracy has spoken in the UK
Wow

#169 Tony on 06.24.16 at 12:10 am

CNBC MarketWatch is still batting .100, wrong about 90 percent of the time. A great way to day trade. Just bet against MarketWatch.

#170 Ole Doberman on 06.24.16 at 12:11 am

Gold now down $35 from it’s peak.

Garth is it time to back up the truck?

#171 Tony on 06.24.16 at 12:14 am

Futures look good gold up about 80 dollars and the DOW down about 600 points. Of course with everything rigged I guess the DOW will open positive and gold negative by 9:30am.

#172 Tiger on 06.24.16 at 12:19 am

Brexit campaign wins: Britain votes to leave the European Union

https://www.google.ca/search?q=U.K.+votes+to+leave+the+EU&oq=U.K.+votes+to+leave+the+EU&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i61.587965j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#q=U.K.+votes+to+leave+the+EU&tbs=qdr:h

#173 Joe2.0 on 06.24.16 at 12:20 am

Just made a swack of cash on my gold holdings.
Surprise.
Trumps next.

#174 BillyBob on 06.24.16 at 12:21 am

“This was the day the British people defied their jailers”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/this-was-the-day-the-british-people-defied-their-jailers/

Expresses the sentiment that carried Brexit, perfectly.

“But this time the establishment consensus coincided with a historic loss of faith in the experts. These were the people who failed to predict the Credit Crunch, who missed the greatest economic disaster to hit us since the Great Depression. And we were supposed to believe them? Slowly the consensus came to resemble not just a conspiracy but, worse, a confederacy of dunces.”

It is the same anger fuelling the popularity of Trump. Beware the pollsters and other assorted experts who say “never”…

#175 Smoking Man on 06.24.16 at 12:21 am

Leave vs remain
Man vs woman
Black’s vs white

I give you the machine.

#176 millenial82 on 06.24.16 at 12:21 am

Brexit is only the start. If I was a smoking man, I’d be betting the dominos fall from here. The first big step has been taken.

http://buchanan.org/blog/will-always-england-125299

#177 Blacksheep on 06.24.16 at 12:25 am

Wow…a sovereign were people actually have a say in their in the future. Some things are more important than money.

#178 Smoking Man on 06.24.16 at 12:26 am

Short twitter and face book, they will be under extreme censor ship orders after Brexit bitch slap.

Up starts will take there market share away over night when they capitulate.

They have no choice.

#179 Basil Fawlty on 06.24.16 at 12:26 am

A bad day for the troika technocrats and a good day for democracy. Gold up $67, which means a horrible day for unicorn chasers.
Who could possibly believe that the ECB operates in the interest of the people?

#180 ARP on 06.24.16 at 12:38 am

DJIA down 644 (~3.6%), S&P off 103 (~5%), NASDAQ off 223 (~5%) in early hours of the overnight. Vix beyond 23.

Happy Friday!

“Hold on to your butts!”

#181 Debtfree on 06.24.16 at 12:42 am

What next ? Prez Donald ?

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.16 at 12:48 am

Got any pics of a Black Swan for tomorrow Garth?

#183 diharv on 06.24.16 at 12:57 am

50 x 130 is a large oversized lot ? Bahahahahahahahahahahahahaha ! Mine in the central interior is 200 x 200 and came with 4000 sq ft of house all for 375 gs . Its not within spitting distance of a Starbucks or a beach thats never warm or clean enough to swim in or any of the other amenities that the debt craving lower mainlanders hold so near and dear to their hearts . Its home , its paid for , and the investible assets keep piling up.

#184 Bullion Licker on 06.24.16 at 1:00 am

Licking Bullion

#185 Gregor Samsa on 06.24.16 at 1:03 am

Brexit is a big blow to the ideology of Globalism and the idea that elites can simply export jobs while importing people and somehow sustain an economy.

The same movement will propel Donald Trump into the White House this fall. Any seed of doubt that Trump will win was erased tonight. The path is clear. The average person is getting tapped out and fed up.

#186 IKnow on 06.24.16 at 1:07 am

Hey, it is what it is. Many factors result in these high valuations. Yes, that includes low rates, Chinese dudes, CMHC, stability, desirable weather, massive immigration, etc. If it wasn’t so, it wouldn’t be so.


You missed the biggest: greed and fear. — Garth

——————————–

Garth is wrong.
For that YVR Dunbar area $5.5M house, almost no locals dare to touch!
Vancouver locals, include the ethnic Chinese, only dare to touch up to about $2.5M
That is the limit of greed and fear in YVR

Anything substantially higher than the limit is simply a place to park wealth, wink wink

#187 Entrepreneur on 06.24.16 at 1:10 am

Time for the leaders to pay attention to the people of the land. People want work, food on the table and see fulfillment.

We listen to Vancouver local radio talk shows on the foreign investment, crazy high house prices, young people moving out, no one walking the streets, empty houses on blocks, etc. Sounds like a ghost town, eerie.

My heart goes out to the youth but look at this way and I always look at live as it is meant to be and there is a reason for this wrongdoing.

#188 Joe on 06.24.16 at 1:12 am

It’s official – the UK has voted to leave the European Union.

Leave has crossed the line to win with 16,835,512 votes to Remain’s 15,692,093.

#189 Frank on 06.24.16 at 1:22 am

Wow, did anyone else see that coming?

Good-bye market stability for the next few months.
Good-bye US rate increases this year.
Hello Vancouver real estate!

#190 Jimmy on 06.24.16 at 1:23 am

SWEET!

#191 in 90 days on 06.24.16 at 1:24 am

So now can I reiterate my predictions?
YVR is 15% down in 3 months, the luxury market is broken, couple of high profile realtors are seeing illiquidity.
Nobody believed in #brexit, now you know The Donald might happen in November and bye bye free trade, welcome back tariffs, we might get clobbered…
Use a balanced portfolio, read Garth everyday , it’s getting entertaining…

#192 Living in crazy land on 06.24.16 at 1:26 am

Still crazy in Vancouver. I’ve been looking very unsuccessfully for a small retail space. Found one that had approx. 500 sq. feet on Commercial Drive, renting for $4000 plus GST/month, but it looked like you could buy it for $69,000. Very ambiquous writing so I inquired. Turns out the $69,000 gets you the PRIVILEGE of acquiring the space. You still have to pay rent …

#193 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.24.16 at 1:30 am

Screw the markets.
Power to the people.
Hope it spreads.

#194 Metaxa on 06.24.16 at 1:41 am

Any of you remember going into Eatons and sticking your foot into the X Ray machine to be fitted for shoes?

Or horse drawn milk wagons that went up and down the street, cooled by ice, delivering milk, eggs and butter directly to your door?

I do.

All that and more has changed in a lifetime and yet here we all are.
Tomorrow we will all be here.
And the day after.

All it is is change. Just because it accelerates or stutters to a stop now and again doesn’t mean its anything other than change.

Its not the end of things as we know them nor is it the dawn of a brand new world.
Its just tomorrow.

And tomorrow means a brand new blog post by Garth…can hardly wait.

#195 Irony on 06.24.16 at 1:49 am

Goooooooaaaaaalllllll

Brexit wins….victory for common sense over the crooks running their soviet state of Europe experiment.

Prediction: Friday=Brexit, Friday AM=£ drops, Friday PM=Analysts realise EU is doomed and Euro Plummets, Weekend=Celebrations continue, Monday=EU collapses, ECB cannot cope, £ goes stratospheric, EU emptied of cash into non EURO currencies, Tuesday=UK mops up and EU ends up like Greece

anyway. ….. In another year there will be another vote until the “correct” result is obtaine, jut like in every other country who dared vote against the EU and the people pulling the levers behind the curtain.

#196 domain on 06.24.16 at 1:50 am

A good day to be long gold :) Take a look at HVU.TO tomorrow morning, may be an easy 30-50% upside for a day, maybe more, if you owned it into Thursday evening that is. I’m wondering now if this is the kick-off to a widespread correction in equities, or just a knee-jerk that will come back.

Garth, will you mention gold today in any positive light? It has rallied more than 25% in USD this year so far (gold stocks multiples of that), and it only seems like you mention it when it makes corrective moves. I know you preach balance, etc. but anyone who has been a little heavy in gold this year has done well.

Congratulations to Britain, and their escape from the future life of servitude to unelected nannycrats. Life will go on for Britain, but as for the EU, this may be the start of disintegration.

#197 OffshoreObserver on 06.24.16 at 1:56 am

Brexit is tantamount to the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

What’s next?

The smart people taking back their control.

There will still be the 1%, but the others will have to smarten up, because their well is going to run dry.

#198 Smartalox on 06.24.16 at 1:58 am

Bunch of poncy fUKwits!

Brexit will make UK economy long for a return of the Margaret Thatcher ‘malaise’ years. Sure the ‘immigrants’ are ‘taking all the jobs’, but that’s because the Brits refuse to do those jobs!

And all those ‘laws’? The ones that communized products across the EU, and facilitated borderless trade, will they be repealed? Will ISO standards no longer apply in the UK? The metric system? It’s not going away, but now the rest of Europe has the right to levy tariffs and ‘inspection fees’ to confirm that UK exports conform to EU standards.

What will happen is that production costs of food, particularly agricultural products will SOAR. UK farmers upset that farmers in Eastern Europe raise their animals in ‘deplorable conditions’ compared to UK standards? Well, they’ll be even more upset to have those same producers undercut their costs.

Think those multinational companies that pay no UK taxes will suddenly move to London? Diageo? UniLever? Starbucks?

Great opportunities coming up for Canada to receive UK professionals who’ll soon be eager to leave the soon to be moribund economy.

#199 Balmuto on 06.24.16 at 2:01 am

#113 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 10:55 pm
Now who was it that said short cable
Hum…..

Great call Smokie. The markets, the bookies, were absolutely going against you but you stuck to your guns. What do they know? Now everything is up in the air.

#200 TRT on 06.24.16 at 2:11 am

This is the day the tide turned against globalization and rampant immigration.

Other countries will follow in whats left of the EU.

#201 TRT on 06.24.16 at 2:13 am

#135 The real Kip on 06.23.16 at 11:32 pm
I’m wondering how binding this referendum will be tomorrow
—————

They better accept the results or there will be a bloody coup there if they do not accept democracy.

#202 In 90 Days You 2.0 on 06.24.16 at 2:18 am

#9

In 3 months we will see:
1. one rate hike
2. a sudden 10-15% drop in YVR mo/mo
3. CAD lower 10%

———-

Wishful thinking….

In 90 days you will see:

1. Yellin kicking the can down the road again on rate increases due to x global condition and Y vague US economic data
2. An increase in RE prices as people continue to panic and flood the market before the feds “do anything” (like that will happen)
3. CAD same rate

———

Uh oh, surprise, surprise, the rate hike is off for the US Fed now.

Oh well, renters can hope (lol) that the feds can do something to curb the market….

RE prices up and up and away

#203 Bloke in the UK on 06.24.16 at 2:33 am

“Brexit will happen” – a little overexcited? I’m no fan of Cameron but after an enquiry involving the tax authorities confirmed that neither he nor his family were tax evaders by housing their family trust funds in Central America, you’re a little wide of the mark. Legally, anyway.

But for all you folks over there, this is what it really feels like to be an Englishman this morning.

And the sun’s shining, too!

#204 gladiator on 06.24.16 at 3:06 am

So it’s brexit after all.
Now watch those TO and Van RE markets really shoot up. More HAM will need a safe harbour and there’s no better place for it than these two cities.

We are entering interesting times, my friends.

#205 The Dude on 06.24.16 at 3:16 am

Garth being wrong on Brexit may prove him right on YVR. How’s that for irony?

#206 Right on Garth... on 06.24.16 at 3:32 am

Train left town long time ago. To cool YVR/416 RE they will need draconian measures and end up hosing the economy and its only remaining strong growth GDP sector.

Same dung, different pile to what happened in the 80s except not just 416 this time around.

#207 Brexit on 06.24.16 at 3:44 am

Brexit was about immigration and the financial industry destroying working people’s lives.

No? Well home building stocks are falling 25% and banks like Barclays are down 30%.

We have to fight and take Canada back as well from the financial and Corporate elite. Don’t be silenced anymore.

#208 james on 06.24.16 at 4:37 am

A wonderful day. The UK is on the road to regaining national sovereignty against the will of the ‘no borders’ nutbars who are ruining Europe. Let’s see what wrenches the bankers that run the EU commission try to throw into the works.

#209 Johnny Rocket on 06.24.16 at 4:54 am

The realtard ‘Evan Ho’ tosses in St Georges like its there for the taking…..As a Georgian I call bullshit. St. Georges screens applicants at the preschool level and being allowed in is only after an extremely arduous vetting process. Only being an ‘old boy’ can guarantee your son might get in…..otherwise Evans clients should sue for making this fallacious claim. St. Georges is elite for a reason…..excellence over all other considerations.

#210 Lenny on 06.24.16 at 5:35 am

When is the last time you bought anything good “Made in Britain”? Me neither. (Except an oil spewing BSA 500 in 1971).

Yawn….

#211 Nobodies Fool on 06.24.16 at 5:50 am

Garth when your cocky civil servant told you they didn’t need to save because of the rb pension did you bother to bring up the thorny issue of double dipping? Young grads are being screwed by boomer civil servants who retire to collect full pensions and never make room for the new applicant. Shouldn’t this greed be checked with the same speed as t2 is doing with housing?

#212 Ace Goodheart on 06.24.16 at 6:54 am

Looks like you were wrong, oh great one:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/britain-brexit-european-union-referendum.html

#213 Zen Headspace on 06.24.16 at 7:05 am

By Monday Brexit will be old news. Just like Y2K. Just like The Fiscal Cliff. It’s all hype. Life goes on. All phenomena revert to the mean. All events are temporary. The markets will continue to rise in the long run. Have patience. In the mean time, enjoy these “events” as a form of excitement and entertainment. Like anticipating the big hurricane, or tornado, or thunderstorm, or earthquake, or blizzard. Most of the time, they never happen. Once in a while they do. Then, there’s a lot of media hubub. Pundits clamour for their fifteen minutes of fame. CNN has a field day. Blog dogs have their say. Garth pontificates. Then, onto the next big thing. All the while, after a few bumps, markets continue to rise. So stay invested in that diversified portfolio, my friends. Keep karma and carry on.

#214 Tony on 06.24.16 at 7:19 am

The stock market indexes are starting to come back in America as if by magic. A big thanks to the FED the bankers and the plunge protection team. No one wants these markets to become unrigged. Short gold and silver at the open they have to push the market indexes up first at the open then crush gold later in the day.

#215 BobC on 06.24.16 at 7:22 am

BOOM!
The people have spoken.
The era of big socialist government and elitist politicians is over. The people of England had enough and voted to make Great Britain GREAT again!
I wish I owned a British flag. It would be flying proudly in my front yard today.

Our turn in November.

Trump ’16

#216 T.J.BONES on 06.24.16 at 7:28 am

Sir Garth

Smokie man called it!!

Trump, buy a landslide !!

#217 Clochard Kuujjuaq vs Wall Street on 06.24.16 at 7:39 am

#113 Bloody Great Call. Well done “Cable” Man!!!

#218 Sarah on 06.24.16 at 7:46 am

“This isn’t about race or nationality, those are just labels used for shaming commoners into silence.”

YES! A win for sovereignty!

#219 WallOfWorry on 06.24.16 at 7:46 am

No rate hike until 2018? Hahahaha…..Canada real estate is such a small blip within this broader macro-economical shift…the UK has to print $350 B pounds to keep markets functioning….you could buy Windsor Castle with bitcoins and save 30% overnight. But let’s forget about all of that and focus on whether the Canadian real estate market can be cooled before it crashes. Yawn….

#220 Apocalypse2016 on 06.24.16 at 7:51 am

GLOBAL REVOLT HAS BEGUN!!!

Next up:

Zika

Chaos at the Olympics

Summer of climate change disaster

Violence in Vancouver

Market crashes everywhere

Gold – to the moon!

TRUMP!!!!!

War in Europe

Targeting and slaughter of the elites

Revolutions

TOTAL CHAOS ON THE WAY!!!!!!!!

#221 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.16 at 8:03 am

@#174 Apocalypse 2016
Amazing.
You’re dancing with glee at the thought of millions of people being hurt and killed. Worldwide death and destruction.

You should return to your village. Its missing its idiot.

#222 Arfmooocat on 06.24.16 at 8:10 am

Yawwwn

#223 mark on 06.24.16 at 8:20 am

A lot of huff and puff over a non-binding vote. The power still rests with the politicians and it will be all about the negotiations to stay.

#224 gut check on 06.24.16 at 8:20 am

@ #210 Lenny on 06.24.16 at 5:35 am

When is the last time you bought anything good “Made in Britain”? Me neither.

**********************

Tunnock’s Tea Cakes.
made in Britain and delicious.
:)

#225 Penny Henny on 06.24.16 at 8:20 am

Is that a photo of a seal pup?

#226 TurnerNation on 06.24.16 at 8:29 am

Next up SMEXIT – do we move to Smokie’s blog or not?

Today VIX will touch 30, FAZ.US to 42-43. And orderly sell off.
Might then be time for bulls to jump back in.

#227 Millmech on 06.24.16 at 8:39 am

#150 Domain
A good friend of mine went “all in”with gold in 2011 to the amount of about $500,000,has not yet recovered to what he paid for it(5 yrs of negative returns).I am sure I will hear about his great gains lately when I see him this weekend,he will never sell even if he breaks even as he has been bit by the gold bug!

#228 CTO on 06.24.16 at 8:39 am

Mr Turner

Is this the Brexit you were expecting?

Now that the vote is done and tallied. Obviously the TSX will react in a spectacularly negative way! My “diversified” portfolio will be smacked down to levels of 2010-2011..agian, only to entirely wipe out any gains that I have seen since then…slowly to creep up again over the next..oh…I don’t know,… 5 years or so to then find another “scare”, to knock it down again…
Meanwhile, it is now a sure thing that the U.S fed just got what they are looking for! There will be no rate rises for a decade or so!
The Canadian government is now for sure going to take a wait and see attitude to crazy housing markets in Canada hoping for outside factors to balance things out…of which will not happen and housing will continue to rise to the stratosphere as the foreign influence is not from countries so much affected by Brexit…in fact couldn’t care less about Brexit.
I am now expecting 5-10% losses in my “diversified portfolio”, 5 – 10 % gain in my T.O house (thank God I listened to my wife and bought in 2011) for remainder of 2016.
So far,…the shit storm of the last 10 years only seems to be affecting financials, housing has been totally immune, rising, year over year with consistency. Housing seems to be the solid rock here Garth, not financials.

#229 NoName on 06.24.16 at 9:11 am

#221 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.24.16 at 8:03 am

Länstidningen Södertälje related?

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-fc-yahoo/swedish-soccer-player-gets-red-card-for-farting-202705537.html

#230 unbalanced on 06.24.16 at 9:13 am

Would this be considered a Black Swan event? Should I stay or should I go? Thats why your portfolio should have lots of dry powder. Mine does. Just like a true politician that talks out of both sides of his mouth in the same breath.

#231 Vangrrl on 06.24.16 at 9:15 am

#156 Bottoms Up:
I agree. Fear won the day. Wow- hooray!
52% is barely a majority. I’m living in Europe and every Brit I know here is stunned and upset. Well ok, some are shrugging it off and playing it down.
I’ll be in London on Wed en route home for the summer. Interesting times indeed!

#232 Mr. Frugal on 06.24.16 at 9:19 am

Brexit kind of reminds me of a song. It goes like this…

Do you hear the people sing?
Singing a song of angry men?
It is the music of a people
Who will not be slaves again!
When the beating of your heart
Echoes the beating of the drums
There is a life about to start
When tomorrow comes

#233 Casual Observer on 06.24.16 at 9:21 am

#159 bdy sktn on 06.23.16 at 11:58 pm
I have a forex question.

Why is Japanese yen killing usd. Why such a safe haven currency.

Forex traders were most likely borrowing Yen and buying higher yielding currencies such as the British Pound. (known as the Yen Carry Trade – Long GBP/Short JPY)

With GBP dropping like a rock, that trade is being unwound in a hurry.

This may not explain the entire move in JPY, but it’s certainly contributing to it.

#234 Always thankful on 06.24.16 at 9:23 am

Looking forward to tomorrow’s post Sir Garth!

#235 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.24.16 at 9:24 am

Brexit

Trump?

The world is a strange place with many surprises ahead.

Economics is the backstory to all history and it is demographics which is the backstory to all economics.

Again, as George Carlin said “Your average person is really quite stupid and half of them are dumber than that”.

As Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain> said “If voting made a difference they wouldn’t let us do it”.

#236 lolita on 06.24.16 at 9:25 am

HAHAHA The UK, the pusher of “free” trade in the British empire now shows how hypocritical it is by pulling out of EU.

One more lesson in history for the whole world to see how the case for unrestrained free trade economics is bogus, and it is just about politics.

#237 macroman on 06.24.16 at 9:26 am

Black Friday

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbjFbGwsXak

#238 not 1st on 06.24.16 at 9:30 am

Britons are such a strong proud people. Instead of wallowing in a oppressive bureaucracy that controlled everything from movement to security to how much money will be sunk into QE and bailout black holes, they stood up and said no more.

Now Canada can do the same..are you listening Quebec? Go ahead and try your referendum now.

T2 should immediately announce a trade pact with the UK.

#239 Life among the Stars on 06.24.16 at 9:32 am

Prime Minister Boris and President Trump. The mop top twins to rule. People are pissed.

#240 Sideshow Rob on 06.24.16 at 9:33 am

One and undone. Central banks are in meetings this morning to discuss a coordinated central bank move to support the banks. Rate cuts to be announced early next week.

#241 maxx on 06.24.16 at 9:34 am

#58 For those about to flop… on 06.23.16 at 8:40 pm

“46.5 million people signed up to vote for Brexit.

Some people stayed home because they are scared of rain.

Some people went out to vote because they are scared of immigrants.”

What an inflammatory, antisocial and foolish comment.
They aren’t “scared”, simply fed up with gaping floodgates that don’t moderate the influx of anything, in order to support “global vision”.
Nearly everything is good, globalization included, if implemented correctly. Measure, incorporate, adapt, reap the rewards. Rinse and repeat. Instead, the world has been forced to gorge itself stupid on terminal, wrong-headed scheduling. Spin that cash mercilessly and let the little plebs adapt, sausage grinder be damned.
Much like bulimia, Brexit happens, as people essentially barf up the excess.
This fire-hose mentality compromises social adaptability, which, correct me if I’m wrong, is one of the major goals of globalization. It also decimates formerly excellent social programs, often to the point of paralysis. More people end up falling through resulting cracks and a majority of very stressed and unhappy citizens results.

Begs the question: Is Brexit the first of more “exits” to come?

#242 james on 06.24.16 at 9:44 am

#137 Smoking Man on 06.23.16 at 11:34 pm

#122 gut check on 06.23.16 at 11:10 pm
Smoking Man,

I need to know where to get one of these cowboy boats you speak of.
…………………………..
You just made my day…
Unfortunately cowboy boats are made a billion light years away. Think orange plasma flier.
……………………………………………………………..
Jesus its bad enough Smoking Man is on the road driving. For gods sake don’t encourage him to get on the water with his drunken cowboy boat, I will have to sell my cottage and go to the desert. Is nothing sacred?

#243 Etobicoke Pete on 06.24.16 at 9:54 am

RULE BRITANNIA

#244 ROTFL on 06.24.16 at 9:58 am

Few believed Britons would vote against their own economic self-interest. — Garth

Did they though?

Globalization, free trade and labour mobility have been great, on average, for everyone. Branko Milanovic shows that this breaks down into great for the global rich (top 5% or so) and almost all of the global poor (bottom 75% or so) but not-so-great for those in between. That would be millenials priced out of housing in Vancouver, Trump voters, brexit voters, most people in Greece and Spain, Canadians angry about temporary foreign workers, and the list goes on.

If you tallied up one dollar of net worth to one vote, Britons voted against their economic self-interest. But tallying up one person per vote, I suspect they did not.

You can see the same dynamic on the comments section of this blog. Many people are doing just fine, but some are struggling to find a surplus to invest. Ground, as Marx said, between the millstones of taxation and inflation.

#245 A Sceptic Tank on 06.24.16 at 9:58 am

From the RBC report: “Nationwide, RBC’s aggregate affordability measure rose for the fourth consecutive quarter by 0.8 percentage points to 47.1% in the first quarter of 2016 (an increase represents deterioration in affordability).”

That means ownership costs are 47.1% of median household income – and that’s aggregate of all housing types, low-rise and condo, Canada wide!

In Vancouver, you’re looking at 46% of median income for a condo. Toronto – 36.5% for a condo (which given the proportion of Studios/1Bs to family units definitely means you get aren’t getting more than 1 bedroom for 36.5%) or 60.6% aggregate!

What a joke. If this sustains past 2018 I’m moving to Saskatoon.

#246 For those about to flop... on 06.24.16 at 10:09 am

#234 maxx on 06.24.16 at 9:34 am
#58 For those about to flop… on 06.23.16 at 8:40 pm

“46.5 million people signed up to vote for Brexit.

Some people stayed home because they are scared of rain.

Some people went out to vote because they are scared of immigrants.”

What an inflammatory, antisocial and foolish comment.
They aren’t “scared”, simply fed up with gaping floodgates that don’t moderate the influx of anything, in order to support “global vision”.
Nearly everything is good, globalization included, if implemented correctly. Measure, incorporate, adapt, reap the rewards. Rinse and repeat. Instead, the world has been forced to gorge itself stupid on terminal, wrong-headed scheduling. Spin that cash mercilessly and let the little plebs adapt, sausage grinder be damned.
Much like bulimia, Brexit happens, as people essentially barf up the excess.
This fire-hose mentality compromises social adaptability, which, correct me if I’m wrong, is one of the major goals of globalization. It also decimates formerly excellent social programs, often to the point of paralysis. More people end up falling through resulting cracks and a majority of very stressed and unhappy citizens results.

Begs the question: Is Brexit the first of more “exits” to come?

///////////////////////////////////

Did some people not vote that were eligible?

Did some people vote as their main reason to curb immigration?

Don’t let the truth get in the way of a good story…

M42BC

#247 rosie on 06.24.16 at 10:10 am

Dilbert knows. Act accordingly.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/comic-riffs/wp/2016/03/21/donald-trump-will-win-in-a-landslide-the-mind-behind-dilbert-explains-why/

#248 Smoking Man on 06.24.16 at 10:16 am

Ever since I was a young boy,
I’ve played the crystal ball.
From Soho down to Brighton
I must have played them all.
But I ain’t seen nothing like him
In any amusement hall…

That deaf, dumb and drunk kid
Sure plays a mean crystal ball !!!!!!

#249 Andres on 06.24.16 at 10:27 am

Garth this is time of opportunities, what sector that is going down we should buy expecting a rebound?

#250 meslippery on 06.24.16 at 10:32 am

10:30am tsx down 146 points nothing to see here move on.

#251 Doug in London on 06.24.16 at 10:32 am

Well yes, by now it’s obvious Britain has voted to bail out. So where’s all this panic that was supposed to shake up stock markets around the world in they voted to leave? Even the Britain ETF, EWU-NY isn’t down that much. As I believe the Brits say, it’s a tempest in a teapot. Or to quote words in a song by John Cougar Mellencamp: Oh ya, like goes on.

#252 bdwy sktrn on 06.24.16 at 10:33 am

#157 Bottoms_Up on 06.23.16 at 11:56 pm
Britain leaving the EU should not be based on a 50%+1

Clear mandate to leave should be required….
—————————————
crybaby. you are a dangerous, delusional communist.

#253 Tick Tock on 06.24.16 at 10:34 am

Another task force being convened to give the appearance of taking action on the very economic generator that sustains the nation – with over 25% GDP directly and indirectly attributable to the RE sector. Pure smoke and mirrors.

Will this be another toothless measure? Very very likely. All past measures to cool the market have simply added fuel to the fire: elimination of the 0 down/40 year mortgage; amortization periods linked to down payments; new bank capitalization requirements; new HELOC rules for properties; and the recent increase in down payments.

If you are a betting person, what effect do you think the new changes will make – another rush into the market and prices up another 20-30% in the same time is what will happen.

And if you are betting person, do you think they will touch the foreign capital that is creating the domino effect in pricing throughout ON and BC? Nope – that will undermine the two key economies and is bound to offend foreign capital – whose offense takes precedence over local concerns.

Great – prices up 60% in a year. Now everyone just has to wait and rent for another 10 years as the sticky price declines kick in in order to achieve that ‘affordable’ TO or Vancouver home.

My, my, what a pickle everyone will be in…

#254 Doug in London on 06.24.16 at 10:35 am

@Millmech, post #227:
Why didn’t he go “all in ” with gold back in 1999 when it was on sale?

#255 Rational Optimist on 06.24.16 at 10:39 am

What does the ‘Leave’ vote practically mean? Britain now has to negotiate a withdrawal agreement with the Union. That will at minimum take months, but they have up to two years to do that. These will be British bureaucrats and diplomats doing the negotiating. Would it be ‘democratic’ to accept that agreement without another referendum? Would it be likely that most Tories and in particular UKIP would find the agreement acceptable? Would it be likely that swing voters who voted to leave based on relatively weaker conviction would find it acceptable? They called this referendum, so what’s to stop Prime Minister Johnson (or, who knows, maybe Corbin) from calling a referendum in two years’ time on whether to accept the specific withdrawal agreement negotiated with the Union?

Additionally, will the 60% of Scottish voters who voted last night to be part of the EU ask for another referendum, this time not to ‘leave’ the UK as in 2014, but rather to ‘remain’ in the EU and EEC?

So the Europeans are right when they say this means a lot of uncertainty. All that is known right now is that Britain remains a part of the EU, but that a referendum has been held indicating that voters would like to start the process to leave the Union. I don’t think anyone knows specifically what happens next. We can only guess, but if the EU is smart it is going to do what it can to show the other 27 members that threatening to leave or leaving does not result in a good deal for you.

#256 maxx on 06.24.16 at 10:44 am

“Did some people not vote that were eligible?

Did some people vote as their main reason to curb immigration?

Don’t let the truth get in the way of a good story…

M42BC”

“The truth”?
The truth is that the mechanism for implementation is broken, it doesn’t work. Just as spending too quickly or borrowing too much doesn’t work. Get it?
Btw, got yourself a patent on “the truth”?

#257 Arb Watson on 06.24.16 at 10:47 am

No yawning allowed today in the markets, time to go shopping. Thank you brixters.

#258 bdwy sktrn on 06.24.16 at 10:47 am

#183 diharv on 06.24.16 at 12:57 am
50 x 130 is a large oversized lot ? Bahahahahahahahahahahahahaha ! Mine in the central interior is 200 x 200 and came with 4000 sq ft of house all for 375 gs . Its not within spitting distance of a Starbucks or a beach
————————

WOW wow wow you have a 200′ lot, you are the man dude!

earth to you – any 50′ lot in the city is big, the biggest available . (unless you hang with chip wilson types)
here’s another tip for you, the central interior is cheaper than the west side. duh.

anything less than 2000×2000 is tiny in the interior. micro. teensy.

my 10 acres near van is walkable (2k) to a nice beach, 1 mile to sbux, can get a pizza delivered to the door.

and i paid about 1/4 of what you did for your land – and your stuck waaaaay up in the lost hinterland of the interior. (don’t expect much appreciation up there). sucker.

#259 Life among the Stars on 06.24.16 at 11:36 am

#248 Smoking Man on 06.24.16 at 10:16 am

Ever since I was a young boy,
I’ve played the crystal ball.
From Soho down to Brighton
I must have played them all.
But I ain’t seen nothing like him
In any amusement hall…

That deaf, dumb and drunk kid
Sure plays a mean crystal ball !!!!!!

–Smoker dude is now a gazillionaire….

#260 Sideshow Rob on 06.24.16 at 11:36 am

Are xpf and cpd lock limit down? No price change updates anywhere since the open. Bad sign…

#261 bdwy sktrn on 06.24.16 at 11:39 am

from the dilbert link above……

Writes Adams: “Identity is always the strongest level of persuasion. The only way to beat it is with dirty tricks or a stronger identity play. … [And] Trump is well on his way to owning the identities of American, Alpha Males, and Women Who Like Alpha Males. Clinton is well on her way to owning the identities of angry women, beta males, immigrants, and disenfranchised minorities.

“If this were poker, which hand looks stronger to you for a national election?”

#262 Mixed Bag on 06.24.16 at 11:47 am

#248 Smoking Man on 06.24.16 at 10:16 am

Nice.

#263 Bottoms_Up on 06.24.16 at 12:15 pm

2 years to notify EU they want to leave, followed by 2 years of negotiation. Thus, UK won’t be separate for at least 4 years…

#264 Snoopy on 06.24.16 at 12:22 pm

Today 5-year interest rates are down 8%.

Perfect recipe to see higher housing prices: Autumn is a long time to wait to get a plan from Canada on how to cool Toronto and Vancouver housing. I know the government doesn’t work fast… but they really should on this one.

#265 Mixed Bag on 06.24.16 at 12:22 pm

#261 bdwy sktrn on 06.24.16 at 11:39 am

Yes, those who keep saying “rates will go up” and “house prices will go down” and predicting based on logic and math, would do well to read Scott’s Persuasion series of blogs, to understand “the herd”.

Moo.

#266 Eks dee sipal on 06.24.16 at 12:52 pm

We won in Britain! The people everywhere are increasingly informing themselves of the fraudulent actors in positions of leadership and divesting into a better world free from the mind/media/political control.

#267 ANON on 06.24.16 at 1:13 pm

So, here we are… It is always the unwatched pot.

#268 Snowboid on 06.24.16 at 7:24 pm

111 For those about to flop… on 06.23.16 at 10:43 pm…

You’re right, it’s the desert for me. I do like Scotland, but not enough to live there.

Having lived in Vancouver, Victoria, and for awhile London (actually Finchley Central) I can’t take the humidity anymore.

#269 Big Jack on 06.25.16 at 6:21 pm

Well, well, well….
Looks like you were wrong about Brexit, Garth.
Come 2 November, you’ll be eating your words about Trump, too.
The nationalism that you despise so much is making a comeback.
Globalism is getting so passé, don’t you know?