Workers in the US haven’t seen a real wage gain in twenty years. Ditto for Canada and most of the industrialized world. Were it not for cheaper energy and almost-free money, consumer spending would slow to a dribble, eating jobs. Bad outcome, but it’s probably coming.
The same technology making us smart, connected and efficient also unemploys people. Look what autonomous driving will do – ten million lost jobs in the States alone, it’s estimated. We already know it’s cheaper to manufacture offshore, so that’s what companies do. The people who used to work there get the screws. The investors owning company stock get the divvies.
The fallout’s unmistakable. What this pathetic blog referenced yesterday – heaps more volatility in the wake of these changes – is the new normal. It’s true: the divide between the 1% and the 99% is yawning ever-larger. And this is behind things like Brexit, Trump and the Canadian middle class’s dangerous leveraged gamble.
Angry people feeling disenfranchised and disentitled lash out. So refugees and immigrants are blamed (Brexit). Or an entire religion or country (Trump). Or a racial group (Vancouver). Tying many people together in this wave of unhappiness is a feeling that the ‘elite’ – politicians, 1%ers, central bankers, CEOs and financiers – control the world and need someone to give them the finger.
You know the rest: nationalism, protectionism, protest votes, walls and barriers. Throw in the power of social media, and you have a heady brew of powerful dissent. The Occupy movement typified this, but it’s now morphed from a hashtag into a hurricane.
This scares financial markets. Investors hate surprises. They wanna make money. All the time.
So where are we now?
Here’s a quick update on the three big issues that face us.
First, Brexit. The markets surged Monday because (this time, at least) the anti-establishment forces are failing. Polling shows the UK will vote on Thursday to remain in the European economic union, avoiding messy, expensive consequences. Global equities popped. The US dollar (a safe haven) declined, so commodities went up. Gold plopped. The pound roared higher. Bond yields increased and prices fell.
The latest odds: a 70% chance Britain will stay. The establishment, 1. Angry guys, O. Meanwhile a non-Brexit also increases the odds the US Fed will continue with its plans for rate increases in 2016, after Janet Yellen said as much last week.
Now, speaking of the States, on Monday Trump fired his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski. Big move. The Donald, of course, is in the soup and cannot win the White House. So the markets kept going up. Trump troubles are investors’ joy, since is he not only weird and dangerous, but markets always do better with Dems in office.
Trump, as of Monday, trailed Clinton by 12 points. Worse for the guns-and-guts-anti-Muslim candidate, this comes after the terrorist rampage in Orlando by another nutjob fanatic ISIS sympathizer. That should have bolstered the Republican candidate’s fortunes, but did the opposite, based on a failed communications strategy. So, Corey’s head was served up on a platter. More to come, as Trump huddles with his team and his family trying to rescue his star. Pointless. He’s toast.
Finally, us. Canadians have rolled the dice big-time on a single asset, in large part because they don’t trust financial markets and want an easy way to catapult over middle class stagnation to wealth. This blog has already served up a few million boring words on how this will not end well overall, since the strategy is mostly based on debt and leverage. But it also has the capacity to blow out the economy at large.
Moody’s, the US-based ratings and research guys, this week says if house prices in Canuckistan fall 35% (as they did in the US – which would take us back to only late 2014 pricing in YVR), the Big Six banks would lose $12 billion and CMHC be hit with a $6 billion loss.
There are 260,000 bank employees in Canada, so imagine what the impact of that would be. It would wipe out more than 100% of CMHC revenues and force taxpayers to pony up roughly $2 billion to keep the agency afloat. And surmise what such an event would do to the dollar, plus the cost of imports and the resulting surge in inflation. Everybody, in other words, would get poorer.
Says Moody’s: “Highly indebted consumers are more sensitive to employment or interest rate shocks, either of which could increase mortgage delinquency rates. At the same time, overvaluation concerns raise uncertainty around collateral values, and litigation and/or a government risk-transfer reversal could lead to further unexpected loss at Canadian banks.”
Some people think our housing markets will rise forever. But then, lots of folks believe Trump will win or Britain revolt. The odds are probably 100% that none will occur. Equally likely: the wealth gap will continue to widen, fueling social unrest and birthing more leaders who promise simple solutions.
So, you can moan and gamble on a fading one-asset strategy, or you can see what’s coming and react.
165 comments ↓
You just argued wages were going up two weeks ago!
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/06/03/the-number-crunchers/
“Of more economic consequence is the fact wages are swelling nicely in the States, even as they stagnate here. Average hourly earnings rose 2.5% year/year, which continues a trend now in place for the last six months. Says RBC Capital Markets economist Tom Porcelli: “Despite the rampant contention that wages (especially for non-supervisory workers) have ‘stagnated’ for decades, the reality is very different. Indeed, the current decade is on pace to be the best for annual real production worker wage growth since at least the mid-1960s (the extent of the data).”
Yes, things have improved. But the long-term trend, as mentioned is stagnant. — Garth
Brexit/Euro 2016 update.
Well, at this stage of the competition so there is no collusion they play the final group games at the same time ,so I will start with my team England.
England failed to take their chances against IHCTD9s stubborn Slovakia and the game finished in a non scored draw 0-0.
Slovakia could still go through but must wait for other results to unfold this week, in the meantime they can do maintenance on their dozers.
Wales on the other hand made Ace Goodheart proud and leapfrogged England in the group by dismantling VREUs Russia 3-0.The Russian players looked tired and said after the game they didn’t like carrying around cumbersome 2009 charts of the Vancouver housing market.
So as far as affecting Brexit the coast is now clear as England and Wales can’t be eliminated until after the referendum as they both go through and Northern Ireland still has a chance as well.
Lexit has lost momentum with the bookies despite a few large bets with the money sliding toward Stexit now quoting 24/76 when it was giving 40 / 60 not that long ago.
The polls however are saying that it’s a lot tighter with several coming up with a 44/44 spilt and the rest undecided.The Telegraph has it 52/48 in favour of leaving but this number seems a little strong.A couple more sleeps and we will see who’s right.
It seems to me that even if they are concerned about things in continental Europe, some will have a hard time voting against the EU as they were once in similar shoes.
As of 2011 , 12 % of the population was born different country.
And I would guess that some families are separated and one day would like to reunite.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage is blaming the unfortunate murder of Jo Cox as the reason for the shift back to the Stexit side,but this was already happening as its citizens appeared to have stuck their head in the door to see what was for dinner and then had a sudden craving for something Mediterranean or Middle Eastern…
M41BC
Basement dweller millennials like myself with tiny tiny, yet balanced portfolios (under $100k @ 35) simply hope to weather the storms ahead.
We have little hope left… :(
You’ve seen the light, time for helicopter money.
Time for the great reset. When western economies need to go back to actual, real wages to support production and not just consumption.
This monetary policy gamble is a big one and with a definite ending..none which any of us will enjoy.
Asian countries that have been saving and investing in plants and equipment who produce real goods will be the winners until the west learn to do the same again.
While wages are improving in the US, the big news is that the consumer has learned their lesson and the saving rate is approaching 6%. I only hope that the consumer can build enough confidence to warrant business investment increases… that should finally kick the US economy into a higher gear.
In some ways the stagnation is indicative of the business community being gun shy from their experience during the GFC. I know in my business, I added lots of equipment prior to 2008. I have between very cautious since and spent far more doing repairs rather than acquiring new rolling stock.
So it sounds like TIPS are the place to be for right now.
I would be surprised if Canadian house prices didn’t fall by MORE than 35%.
Not that I want to see blood on the streets, it is just once the rotten smell of losing money by the fistful gets to the ears of the local cabby with 5 condos, then it’s really, really serious. Rush to the exits.
No one wants to lose $1000+ a day.
Well said Mr. T
No Trump, No Brexit, no wages, no rate hikes…
Much ado about nothing again.
Garth, the one asset strategy for those that did NOT listen to you has worked out very well for them. It seems that you don’t have a crystal ball. So, why continue to prognosticate negative consequences for RE? None of the forces pushing RE up thus far has changed. Low rates will continue regardless of whatever charade Yellen is concocting. Immigration to Vancity and TO will remain high. Trump University is still producing RE magnates. No reason to think RE will turn negative in TO.
Garth, I am not sure where you get your poll numbers from (Ladbrooks?) but they are quite strong vs The Street:
YouGov (this afternoon): 42 % Remain vs. 44% Leave
(and while I can’t find it right now), the London Telegraph Poll this afternoon had Leave at 46%
I ran to a friend who has a home inspection company in YVR. I assumed that they would be busy given all the sales over the past couple of years. Nope… they’re dead. Buyers and RE agents won’t accept an offer with a inspection condition. In our 175 suite tower owners are facing a envelope remediation of between 2.5 and 5 million and may be facing an additional 5+++mil for other major problems… and new buyers are purchasing without even reading the Strata council minutes or seeking a professionap inspection. UNBELIEVABLE.
Those who oppose population growth using immigration are xenophobic? I think all Canadians want the best way to help others in need. Not sure $1.2 billion, on 10,000 refugees does this. The UN says it can resettle a refugee for $1,200. In the Middle East close to home and culture for Syrians. I’d prefer to help a million in need and not play politics. There’s nothing xenophobic about it. Just human decency, compassion, economic common sense and environmentally foresightful. Great photo posted on Father’s Day btw lol
I saw this article written by Carl Richards. It shows what is the same, and what is different here in Canada.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/09/business/how-a-financial-pro-lost-his-house.html?_r=1
Americans will see the end of the road , and walk away. Canadians will grit their teeth and pay it off!
when will this madness stop, I am worried if I will be able to retire in Canada from the US
housing is so expensive and now I am watching the few remaining affordable marginal areas outside the Toronto commutershed starting to go insane with prices almost 15% year over year
hope y’all lose your shirts
greedy sobs
re #3
now I am starting to panic and am starting to experience the FOMO
Would you buy currency neutral/hedged ETFs over unhedged ones?
Buying cad unhedged etfs means we are betting that loonie will stay low in future – sort of speculation.
Whats your take on it?
The coming Canadian housing bubble “collapse” – stuff of fairy dust and Peter Pan. None of the above are likely to happen.
The only argument for such a collapse is the amount of leverage people have been using to buy, and the spectre of higher interest rates.
Go to: http://www.debtclock.ca/
And: http://www.debtclock.ca/provincial-debtclocks/ontario/ontario-s-debt/
Calculate the yearly payments with a 4%, 5%, 6% and just for the fun of it, 10% annual interest payment.
Do you see what I see? It can’t happen. The USA is in even worse shape. Their government can’t function year to year without borrowing. Literally, if they can’t borrow, they default. They do not have the revenue to make all their payments.
Raise interest rates even a couple of percentage points and see what happens.
Canadians are not stupid. They have purchased an inflation proof asset – ie, houses. These assets have withstood currency inflation (so has gold, have a look at the increase in the price of gold and the rate of housing inflation in Vancouver and Toronto, you will see it is the same).
The only thing left now is rounds and rounds of money printing on the part of the US and Canadian governments. Houses are not going to get cheaper, money is going to lose its value. It already has. Just takes time for everything to catch up to it.
Garth, with Canadian housing sure to implode, are you shorting the market in some proxy way? Or would that be a crowded trade? Thank-You.
The American,
“a candidate that is an attorney, a First Lady of Arkansas, A First Lady of the United States of America, a woman who’s spearheaded multitudes of progressive of initiatives (including the first for the concept of Universal Healthcare within the U.S.), a Senator for New York, Secretary of State for the United States of America, and the next President. As a woman, there will certainly be investigations surrounding her as she has broken the mold for years. Still, after 40+ years of partisan panel investigations, they’ve got NOTHING.”
————————————-
Hillary is the choice. Hillary it will be.
Don’t kid yourself though, the system may have control via the delegate / EC / swing state WTA set up to ram her (or any corrupt politico) down the citizens throats, but that doesn’t stop the peoples of the US / world from seeing right through this type of lying corporate puppet.
Buy the way, her and Billy just avoiding prosecution (well, not Bill) for years, is not setting the bar real high.
It’s a sad statement, if this is the best leader the USA can currently produce and I’m not even a Trump supporter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73_ds1xQmD4
We are now entering what Japan has been for 25 years – Stagnation – but it could get worse should China fail to correct the course they are on. China’s failed attempt at “capitalism” could possibly lead them to an economic depression. The U.S and Canada have have been in a system of Creditism since roughly WWII and it’s becoming more and more apparent that this is goiNg to implode as it has grown to such mammoth proportions that it is not sustainable at all. These are treacherous waters we are entering folks – investing is dangerous as hell and the flip side is if you sit on your cash the banks will fee you to death or inflation will chew you a new one.
#11 A Canadian Abroad on 06.20.16 at 6:50 pm
Garth, I am not sure where you get your poll numbers from (Ladbrooks?) but they are quite strong vs The Street:
YouGov (this afternoon): 42 % Remain vs. 44% Leave
(and while I can’t find it right now), the London Telegraph Poll this afternoon had Leave at 46%
//////////////////////////
Here’s where I got some of my numbers from I used in post number 2.
Also when I checked the Telegraph today their latest poll was 52 Lexit / 48 Stexit.
M41BC
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/sports-central/uk-eu-referendum/
Brexit was never a concern… The polls could have the leave side ahead by 20 points and the stay would win. I know people and they’re exactly like the markets, they don’t like uncertainty. Leaving the euro would bring an uncertain future. These things are all the same (occupy Wall Street, brexit, trump) all these wakos want a revolution but none of them have the courage to be first in line.
Concerning the UK brexit vote…..It would be a vote to leave if UK born citizens were only eligible to vote!!
Why would someone vote to leave if they moved from Poland?
Since YVR house prices have increased by thousands of dollars a week for years on end, I can see the opposite happening. The tide flows both ways.
Heck ,I might as go all the way and show my poll numbers as well.
They base this number on the average of the last 6 polls.
M41BC
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/eu-referendum-poll-tracker-and-odds1/
US jobs market is strong and incomes are growing, 2 or 3 FED rake hikes still coming this year. Position yourself accordingly :)
Are you trying to make fun of me Garth? Bi-pillar, not.
DELETED
As I argued yesterday, Brexit is a non-event however it turns out. Britain might get to set there own immigration policy afterwards (seems to be the big issue), but Volkswagen will still sell cars in England afterwards and Land Rover and Bentley will continue to not sell cars in Germany. English bankers will still work in London but not in Switzerland same as they do today. The ski hills will still be in France, Germany and Italy and they will still welcome British skiers. These uber-bureaucracies do little to change the actual action on the ground, except to make it worse.
If EU membership was so great, why doesn’t Canada want to join? Because it’s pointless. In theory we could join but why would we want to? That’s the same problem Britain has. There is no reason yes or no. Therefore it doesn’t matter.
The US election on the other hand continues to fascinate me. The best candidates they can bring forward are a hardened criminal and a casino operator? Really? There are no other potential candidates? Ok, there were a few, a Canadian born Armageddonist and a socialist commie. But that’s it? Out of 300 million people and a lot of great business leaders that’s the best they can do? Bill Gates won’t run? Tom Cook? You have to think that anybody capable of understanding the job does not want it.
The Brexit vote will mean nothing either way it goes. The US election will be the cause of great upheaval no matter how it goes.
And if Hillary wins, through honesty (I can’t see that) or corruption, then it’s time to divest all of your financial holdings and build a bomb shelter. She won’t leave office without pressing the button. Trump is all over the map on policy but he seems capable of understanding that nuclear powers shouldn’t fight in today’s environment.
PS the bomb shelter won’t help. It might keep you alive for a few years but it will be hundreds of thousands of years before life can start over at the beginning. My belief is this is why we don’t hear radio signals from space. We all got the bomb before we were mature enough to understand you can’t use it.
Let’s still hope Britain does the right thing and leaves the failed experiment known as the EU. The EU will crumble regardless of what happens in the vote. Isn’t it time for the next Greece fiasco or next round of “stimulus” from the ECB? I mean it’s been 6 months so we are way way overdue for the next can kicking measure.
Back to Brexit: We had some great posts from the Brits on this blog over the past few days that I hope everyone read. They rationally and eloquently explained why they should leave, but importantly the posts were without the fake fear mongering we hear from the leftist media.
Today I heard the market “rallied” from its point a percentage from the all time high and back down like usual. So what changed in the past few days (aside from the tragic murder)? The stay side gained a whole statistically irrelevant 1% and the market is still broken. That’s what. This thing is far from decided.
MF
Ready to react as whiplash worsening. Sold 2 of 3 Van & Area properties in last year, largely influenced by this blog. What’s that saying? Paralysis by analysis? So many financial points of view, each with their own value proposition. Which is best to follow? In the end, have to remember, no one really knows what is going on (and to act accordingly).
But, yeah, gonna keep reading…
You can’t conclude much about Trump v Clinton right now. They haven’t even had their first debate yet. A lot can change between now and November. Mulcair was looking great and Trudeau looked terrible until the debates started happening. Too early to call this.
Financial slavery is out in the open now?
In USA unless you buy health care from big corps the government fines you a penalizing opt-out fee each year.
Born to be wild(ly in debted).
In Kanada a family of two incomes cannot afford child care in a large city. De facto One Child Policy.
But our elites tell us children are most precious resources. Help for working families like you and I.
Twist their words 180 deg and it’s all truth.
Britain needs to leave the EU. The EU is headed down the road of self-destruction. Maybe not now, or in the next couple of years, but in 5 to 10 years, the EU will no longer be able to survive.
It’s not about immigration and refugees. It’s about their own sovereignty – about not taking orders from unelected officials in Brussels. Britain was fine before the EU and will be fine afterwards.
The scaremongering propaganda of the ‘stay’ side has to stop.
To early to call it On Trump.
As I predicted yesterday. Changes are coming to the campaign. Cory was fired today..
Talk to me after the Hilary vs Trump debate. Some surprises in store…
# 8 A Canadian Abroad:
I would be surprised if Canadian house prices didn’t fall by MORE than 35%.
and
#14 IM in C
Canadians will grit their teeth and pay it off!
Agree with both statements. But the scary part is that even if it only drops 35% it could be catastrophic for many. Example: 800,000 purchase, presume 80% financing of 720,000. Now the property is only worth 35% of its original value – 520,000. Guess who is under water on the mortgage? Trapped. Can’t even sell unless money can be sourced to pay off the shortfall. Most provinces also offer creditors ‘recourse’, i.e. you are personally liable for that shortfall. And even in Alberta you can’t hide if you chose a heloc product. Sue, get judgement, and wait. Wait, search, wait, search. Soon assets reappear and they ( those mean old banks) attach to them for the unpaid debt. Imagine how much easier the digital age has made all of that. No hiding in the tall grass when a drone is flying overhead.
Yes, they will be paid. They have years and years of experience with these situations. Anybody that thinks they can walk away does so at great personal cost.
On another note, loved the rant of Devil’s Advocate last post, especially the last paragraph. It was like hearing Howard Beal scream “I’m mad as hell and I am not going to take it anymore”!!! Thanks for the laugh!
– Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian sees ‘common element’ between Brexit vote, negative rates, strange politics and Fed policy
“There’s a common element between present-day headline news items, such as the upcoming Brexit referendum, accusations of the Federal Reserve being inconsistent, the rise of negative nominal interest rates and “strange politics,” according to Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian.
That commonality, he said, is “advanced economies’ inability to grow in an inclusive manner.”
“If you run sophisticated market economies at low growth for a long time, and if the benefits of that growth go to a small segment of that population, strange things start to happen,” Mr. El-Erian said Monday at a media briefing in New York City.
“And we ain’t seen anything yet. It’s going to get more and more strange [if it continues],” he added.”
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160620/FREE/160629996/allianzs-mohamed-el-erian-sees-common-element-between-brexit-vote?NLID=daily&NL_issueDate=20160620&utm_source=Daily-20160620&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=investmentnews&utm_visit=344272
Wah:::::wah:::::::wah:::::::
Trump can’t win! He hurts my feelings! Wah!
12 points behind? Maybe only among democrats!
Trump is the man, Garth. Like you’ve said before, don’t hate on people because they are successful.
polish
in England is the second most spoken language
a polish hall in every town
put a beer in them and they’re worse than two trunps
going at it.
Donald doesn’t drink,though
on election day keep them at the polish hall.
Britain will stay
The 4 articles I read on yahoo.ca today were noteworthy:
1. About the progress in accepting LGBT
2. About the increase in CPP premiums in 2019
3. About the non-retirement of the baby boomers (pretty much work until dead)
4. About the danger of the collapsing housing bubble and the record debt.
Yesterday I read about the 44 % who will loose their job due to automation.
“Meanwhile a non-Brexit also increases the odds the US Fed will continue with its plans for rate increases in 2016, after Janet Yellen said as much last week.” – Garth
So the plan was FOUR rate hikes for 2016, I said none. Since they won’t move in July, September is too close to the election, so no move then, December is really their only option. Of course by then the recession will be undeniable.
“US jobs market is strong and incomes are growing, 2 or 3 FED rake hikes still coming this year. Position yourself accordingly :)” – JP
Serious delusions on display with JP. Three hikes eh? So in July, September and December they’re going up? Who in their right mind believes any of this?
The Fed’s next move is down, can’t wait for Garth, The American and WalMark to explain it.
We are saying Fuddleduddle to T2?
It is so ironic to see ex Prime-Minister Brian Mulroney on CBC claiming how bad Brexit will be for Britain meanwhile here in Canada you can’t get a case of beer across the New Brunswick and Quebec border without police intervention and Alberta can’t export its main export to the world through Ontario and Quebec to New Brunswick with their planned Energy East Pipeline. Mark Carney at the Bank of England also warning Britain to vote for Europe…makes you wander how a Canadian banker is for the union when he is from a country where it is illegal to ship British Columbia wine to another province.
One thing is sure we are the biggest hypocrits on the planet.. we say one thing but turn around and do what colonials always have done.
Hey Blog Dogs … Economics is not a hard science … there is no “natural market” anything … no real Capitalism, no Socialism, or Communism (except in a book). Society leaders make things up as they go along, often with unexpected consequences.
Mortgage brokers must be getting desperate, I got this as a private message on a forum after posting about the insane prices in Innisfil, On.
“Hey there, Saw your post where you mentioned you and your husband might be interested in buying up there. I’m part of the Real Estate Investment Network (REIN) and they’ve identified that area as being the next hot spot (Don Campbell successfully called Hamilton years ago as the next hot spot). Anyway, just thought I would share. Here is an article if you want to read some more: http://www.reincanada.com/aboutus/media-news/real-estate-news/barrie-great-place-invest-ranks-3rd-study/
And if you’re interested in buying feel free to reach out and I can help arrange financing. I’m a mortgage broker with the top producing brokerage in the country! http://www.abettermortgagebroker.com“
More on the Moody’s warning:
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/housing-crash-in-canada-could-cost-mortgage-lenders-almost-12-billion-moodys-warns
Garth,
Very thought provoking poll this evening. Yes, Wages have been frozen / falling in buying power for over a full generation (30 years). We have gotten the ‘token’ cost of living boosts, but no growth. Yet, productivity HAS grown, while NAFTA, and other “free trade” deals have out sourced jobs.
There is another side to those “outsourced jobs” that is the trade deficit from importing stuff from other lands, and paying for them in US $$. As a yank, I’ll speak from the US perspective, but same applies anywhere.
Beginning with Pres. Reagan, the US debt grew significantly, more money for defense, tax cuts, etc. This has not changed. Today, our debt tops 19 T or 105% of our annual GDP!! Neither political party has a clue how to address this, at least no one has said a peep.
Our government further has “unfunded mandates” i.e. healthcare, retirement promises, etc coming due. ADD this on TOP of a growing Fed debt, current trade deficit, and two leading unsavory presidential hopefuls…..
And Canada thinks THEY have problems?
Hmm… Two neighboring countries: Dumb and Dumber.
There STILL is no “free lunch.”
Somehow, I believe both will get through it, but not without weeping & gnashing of teeth.
While I am no 1% er in fact, not even close. I harvested gains so far this year to pay for a new roof, patio door, paint, and to plump up the checkbook. So the portfolio number IS back to Jan 1st.
Looking forward is a tad more scary. Equity values are high, bonds pays so little. Where goes the roller-coaster?
Well, half a year in almost.
M64WI
Equally likely: the wealth gap will continue to widen, fueling social unrest and birthing more leaders who promise simple solution.
—
Building wealth by a low investment capital balance portfolio on the backdrop of widening wealth gap, social unrest is the equivalent simple solution as Trump’s ideology and as delusional on the long run as the forever increasing RE prices.
This blog itself is just an other political, economic status quo apologist simple solution.
@41 Good sir I said “2 or 3” not 3 , they are coming. Position yourself accordingly, I recommend long risk assets, short treasuries. Good day.
#12 – Beam me up Scottie on 06.20.16 at 6:53 pm
1)I ran to a friend who has a home inspection company in YVR. I assumed that they would be busy given all the sales over the past couple of years. Nope… they’re dead. Buyers and RE agents won’t accept an offer with a inspection condition.
————————-
That is true my friend sold her house around Fraser that was put on market for $1.4 million for $1.7 million without any conditions.Even though the house need need about $250,000 – $300,000 worth of repairs to done.
2)In our 175 suite tower owners are facing a envelope remediation of between 2.5 and 5 million and may be facing an additional 5+++mil for other major problems… and new buyers are purchasing without even reading the Strata council minutes or seeking a profession inspection. UNBELIEVABLE.
————————————–
Thats about $175,000 for each unit .It will be STeal if u could score between them for $225,000 – $300,000 and the unit are about 1000 SQ.
if house prices in Canuckistan fall 35% (as they did in the US – which would take us back to only late 2014 pricing in YVR) – Garth
————–
That’s still will be 1 million for a crack shack in YVR.
Garth, lets be totally honest here. Those fringe groups didnt just pop out of nowhere. They were created and fostered by unbalanced govt and fed policies as well as outright market manipulation, fraud and criminal activity. You talk like they were just some radicals hiding in the woods. Thats disingenuous.
Imagine your factory moves to mexico and then whatever walmart jobs in your home town that are left are filled by TFW. You wouldnt be a little mad about that?
“Manipulation, fraud and criminal activity.” Paranoid much? — Garth
#18 Ace Goodheart on 06.20.16 at 7:08 pm
Do you see what I see? It can’t happen. The USA is in even worse shape. Their government can’t function year to year without borrowing. Literally, if they can’t borrow, they default. They do not have the revenue to make all their payments.
====================
The US govt does not have to borrow one dime, ever. Nobody that can print their own money needs to borrow. This is a fundamental misunderstanding that leads many gold bugs to think (pray?) there will be a USD default/collapse. The US chooses to borrow money because it creates low-risk debt instruments that are fundamental to banking and managing the economy.
Outright default is not an issue but the endless printing of money results in inflation/devaluation which drives down the value of the dollar and raises the price of imports. Foreigners become less willing to hold USD which decreases the advantage Americans now have in international trade.
However others such as the Eurozone and China are also either printing vast quantities of money and/or racking up massive sovereign debts which also add to their money supply. The relative rate at which the US is losing ground is less than it seems.
To me it seems the real risk is not default but the endless asset inflation that results from pumping the money supply faster than GDP growth. When this reverses, deflation will drive prices/income/asset values down across the whole economy while leaving debts repayable in full. If this sounds like the coming RE collapse, congratulations, you get it.
In Kanada a family of two incomes cannot afford child care in a large city. De facto One Child Policy.
—
The couple should separate and get single-mom multi-kid welfare with the additional benefit of free services, including free of charge laptops.
Both the top and the bottom 1%-ers have loopholes.
Family of two average incomes not so much.
Our host is pointing in the right direction.
Total chaos is moving inexorably closer.
Real estate fuelled economic catastrophe is beginning now in Canada.
Elsewhere? Political upheaval, zika and violence in Brazil. Racist mini-wars breaking out over Europe. Syria and Iraq about to explode again. Climate-change incidents will be horrific this summer in many places.
Hatred, assassinations, and widespread violence in the USA.
The worst of 1939 and 1968 will be upon us very shortly.
Get ready. Have your plan for escape and shelter ready to activate.
The summer of global hell began at 6:34 p.m. today.
Multiple streams of income folks!
If all you have going on is your wage and your investment portfolio any recession will be challenging.
But have income coming in from being a silent partner, maybe a rental, a side business even if its etsy or eBay…heck take a paper route if needs be.
Whatever it takes. During tuff times you can’t be proud, if they need a greeter go greet. Fries with that? Why not.
I tipped the last pizza delivery guy $10 on a $40 order just because he looked like he was really trying and could use it.
Turns out he works all day in a design/build outfit’s office and delivers all night because he wants to get his head above water and stay there.
all the rich guys that post on here have it all figured out it seems but if you are reading and wondering what happens if the fecal matter hits the spinning blades take it from an old guy who has lived through many a up and down…those that prosper are those that do the work and only if the work is for themselves.
In order to proudly run a paper route at 35 you have to have a reason to do it. Not “I need the money” but “I’m going to use this extra money for…”
What wealth gap. A pan handler in Toronto makes more than a lot of collage grads living in mom’s basement.
In a sense a pan handler is an entrepreneur of sorts. Ownership of one’s existence so under rated.
The only thing stopping a pan handler from going huge is he don’t know how to franchise.
A group of us Calgary folk figure that if Rachel had any balls or brains she should use her majority and make the move to change the Alberta NDP to a separatist party. Ignore all east and west pipeline applications, make plans to twin all CP and CN lines south and start talking with Montana RFN.
Ignore all provinces and Ottawa going forward, hey….it’s not like we didn’t try.
Problem is I did mention balls and brains.
BREXIT
pres play! must watch how history repits it self
(if you have an hour and 45 to waste)
1975
“An Oxford Union debate by the major political figures of the time discussing the European referendum. The arguments will seem quite familiar, both sides are using them again today – and that’s why it should be watched.”
https://youtu.be/M5ks5tmNwCY
The couple should separate and get single-mom multi-kid welfare with the additional benefit of free services, including free of charge laptops.
every time this comment section suggests a divorce or separation I go and get a drink.
I need the drink to calm me down…divorce and/or separation is not sound financial advice.
!!!
some blog postings I actually get a buzz on too.
On a related note, today’s CPP reform discussions are interesting since they point to a potential bailout of us greedy one-asset Canadians. Now we don’t really need to worry about retirement, since the government will take care of us. Spend away folks!
#54 Andrew Woburn on 06.20.16 at 9:04 pm
this guy gets it
being able to print unlimited quantities of the world’s reserve currency. priceless
Back in the day when a kid went to university there was a wink. Your better than the garbage man.
The garbage man every Boomers mom’s worst nightmare.
Back then the university student was trained to contribute and prosper. Not whine and complain and resent hard work.
Today they are all victims of the evil white patriarch.
In the cross hairs for these sjw. A white man with a mullet that drives a pick up.
Yeah like he’s the reason for your imagined oppression…
Teachers selling the new world order is all I’m saying.
brexit irrelevant. pad the diversified account if prices drop. that’s all
Yeah, this is what all these tax breaks and cmhc breaks etc etc are for. When is the gov’t going to start taxing these freeloaders. Ridiculous !!! http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-family-cashes-in-on-hot-housing-market-to-wander-the-world-1.3642714
I hope that this comment is within the bounds of relevancy in relation to Garth’s latest blogs about Brexit/Trump/Occupy and the clamour that is currently arising around us.
I must admit to some personal embarrassment. I actually spent time worrying that Ezra Levant would have a corrosive effect on Canada.
He recently tweeted that he had reached 200,000 followers of his youtube shit.
Haha.
#BoundForTheObscurityHeSoRichlyDeserves
I was at a newly built Calgary condo in the NW and only 3 units sold out of 25ish – anyone else noticing the same?
Usually there was line ups out the door – or is that only Vancouver.
Houses still moving though – anyone one else have updates?
It won’t be Hillary that defeats Trump, it will be liberal comedians and satirists. Republicans clearly have no sense of the ridiculous and this will cost them the future
For all the despair about the current trajectory of US public life, there are still platforms for people willing to confront power with words that would get them shot in most parts of the world. Watch the bright, appealing but brutally effective Hasan Minaj destroy a room full of congresspersons with subversive humour.
https://www.good.is/articles/hasan-minhaj-radio-television-correspondents-association-dinner
#64 Smoking Man on 06.20.16 at 10:10 pm
In the cross hairs for these sjw. A white man with a mullet that drives a pick up.
———–
I thought you were a bald cueball!
#10 I don’t know nothing. on 06.20.16 at 6:50 pm
“None of the forces pushing RE up thus far has changed… Immigration to Vancity and TO will remain high… No reason to think RE will turn negative in TO.”
——————————————————————
On what basis are you certain that the population of Toronto is growing, and more particularly on what basis are you aware that the number of households which require housing is growing? Is it the census? Because we last time we had one of those in 2011 before Steve-o pulled the plug.
CMHC suggests that population growth in Toronto averages about 55,000 people per year. I can’t find any data about what household configuration those people fall into.
In 2014 there were 14,221 starts on singles, semis and townhouses and 14,708 starts on apartments. That’s a total of 28,929 new units, about half of which are designed to house 3 or more people. And 2014 was a slow year – you’re looking at totals of 33k and 48k starts in 2013 and 2012 respectively, with similar distributions among unit types.
Assuming 2.8 people per single/semi/town (which is the StatsCan aggregate average household size in Toronto, and so the figure is actually likely higher for low-rise units) and 1 person per apartment housing starts are in fact more or less keeping pace with demand.
Moreover, infill housing development projects, particularly for low-rise product, fail all the time. Just look at Urbancorp. If immigration really was the pressing tidal wave of insatiable demand that is pushing up prices by 15% a year, this wouldn’t be happening.
Thinking about our purpose on earth.
No matter how successful you become. No matter how many people love you. No matter what great poems you wrote or songs you have sung.
In the end your purpose is maintaining a worm colonies existance.
Life eats life. A worm can’t eat a rock, nor can human find nutrition in rocks. We eat dead stuff or we die of starvation.
We live to die for another spices…
Dr Smoking man
PhD Herdonomics
Philosophy under the Gazibo and getting hammered.
It’s so under rated…
#57 Metaxa on 06.20.16 at 9:33 pm
Multiple streams of income folks!
————
i don’t remember book mentions paper route, but i do clearly remember page 226
Turn Your Life Story into Money… Even If You’ve Been Miserable Failure
if i am ever to write a book…
Well, looks like T2 and his gang
really wants to keep the housing party going…they’re going to collect more from us so that we can keep spending our way into retirement:
http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN0Z62NY
#70 Steerage Bilge on 06.20.16 at 10:35 pm
#64 Smoking Man on 06.20.16 at 10:10 pm
In the cross hairs for these sjw. A white man with a mullet that drives a pick up.
———–
I thought you were a bald cueball!
…
I am proudly a cueball, shiny and smoth. Just defending Newfoundlanders. Great people who don’t deserve the rath of metal case SJW.
The Brexit boomerang appears to be coming back around.
My Europe fund recovered 3.2% today.
By the way WULLY if Iceland find a way to finish second in their group they will play England in the round of 16.
Crushed Ice sounds nice…
M41BC
You even have the time down #56 Apocalyse 2016, well, we do have a thunder storm right now. I believe you.
I agree with #45 young & foolish in that we do not have any “natural market.” It is all controlled and in a financial dome like a snow dome we shake and the flakes are controlled.
Why should we bail out CMHC? Why should bail out anyone? When in small business do we get bailed out, NO!
The Brits are fighters and they will survive without the EU. Time to stop the control freaks for their own gain.
Re: My comment at #67.
That should have read “glamour” or “clamor”. Your choice.
These Canadian/American spellings always confound me. In my neighborhood, colors are tuff to figure oot.
#73 NoName on 06.20.16 at 10:41 pm
#57 Metaxa on 06.20.16 at 9:33 pm
Multiple streams of income folks!
————
i don’t remember book mentions paper route, but i do clearly remember page 226
Turn Your Life Story into Money… Even If You’ve Been Miserable Failure
if i am ever to write a book…
…
Don’t even attempt it. Talking from experience.
Every day that goes by when you can’t create it just right. It’s tourcher….
I’m on year six. And it sucks.. Self induced tourcher
Not worth it. Eat dead stuff. Drink and stop trying to win anyone over.
It’s too much work and takes living out of life.
Wages have stagnated for sure. Especially among people who would never use the word stagnate, like say Timmy’s workers.
When I was in grad school a few years ago, getting my worthless M.Sc., people were impressed when somebody was awarded an NSERC grant. Why? Because it paid them about $26000 a yr. Yes, grad students were impressed and excited about the possibility of making ~$12/hr in order to be slaves to their supervisor. Oh, and tuition came out of that as well, over $2k per semester, or over $6k per year.
Any scholarships or grants awarded on top of that, and the supervisor took it so the student didn’t actually see anymore take home pay.
Our best and brightest, on their way to being Doctorates, and they think making what a Tim Horton’s worker with their Grade 10 is “good money”.
If you want to see why so many Canadians are clueless about money, look at the rise of post graduate degrees. They’ve never been in the Real World so they don’t have their money system calibrated. It shows.
Build a wall around our institutes of Higher Learning and voila, you have a mental institution. Most of the inmates don’t ever want to leave.
Blockchain technology to bypass traditional intermediaries and toll collectors
http://bloombergtv.ca/2016-06-15/news/this-is-about-to-fundamentally-change-the-world-economy/
I would not rule ‘the Donald’ out just yet. There are better than 4 full calendar months between now & the next USA election. Plenty of time for Trump to recoup lost ground & plenty of time for voters to change their minds. Terrifying as it is to think of ‘the Donald’ as US president, it could still happen. Just saying.
T2 was never & will never be ready to lead this country!
Who voted for this kid?
@#74 Cici
I expected nothing less.
Since the average Canadian is either too stupid , too lazy or too financially undisciplined to take advantage of RRSP’s, TFSA’s, etc.. Gotta have that $500 “Smartphone” and awesome “tat” first, dude.
The govt is forced to raise the CPP “dog food fund” by ( wait for it) a whole $7 per pay cheque starting in 2020. Rising to $35 per pay buy 2025.
Unfortunately forced savings seems to be the only option for the great unwashed masses……or tax the shit out of the rich until they leave…….
Over to you Brazil Expat.
BOOM! on 06.20.16 at 8:42 pm
Today, our debt tops 19 T or 105% of our annual GDP!! Neither political party has a clue how to address this, at least no one has said a peep.
========================
But don’t worry — Donald Trump has a solution for this growing tide of debt. He just won’t pay it.
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/435226/trump-national-debt
=============================
Our government further has “unfunded mandates” i.e. healthcare, retirement promises, etc coming due. ADD this on TOP of a growing Fed debt, current trade deficit,
Doesn’t matter. You’re the USA. Rules of engagement don’t apply.
T2 will do everything he can to keep the housing party going. He certainly won’t do anything to slow down the phenomenon detailed in this excellent news video:
China’s Millionaire Migration
Over 100,000 Chinese millionaires have moved to Vancouver, sparking everything from a reality show to a property boom making housing unaffordable. Dateline asks if the millionaire migrants are a blessing or curse.
@#234 Bobby
“To suggest that putting a sign on a lot and listing the property on MLS is worth $30k in commission is complete bunk. The sad part about realtors is they believe their own hype.”
********************************************
Never, ever were truer words spoken….
D.A. take note.
#71 A Sceptic Tank on 06.20.16 at 10:39 pm
————————————————-
It is a well documented fact that the GTA receives approximately 100,000 people per year. No, wait….they all go to Timmins, sorry about that!!
The only way the 1% are winning are because half of the 99% are incompetent.
They are being played with regards to cause of housing prices going up in YVR. Foreign money + immigration is th real cause. But they can be swayed by a authoritative figure, like Garth, saying otherwise.
Guess we need dumb coercive people in the west. The East has caste systems. Same end result.
Exactly. Why do you think we put those mountains there? — Garth
We have a lot of ex-pat Brits in the office, so I did an informal poll of their opinions on Brexit.
It was an even 50-50 split for Stay or Leave.
You may wonder how the result breaks down by sex. All of the women I asked about sex said LEAVE!
I get it… You’re a social liberal. Your comments against Trump reek of desperation and fear of what can and likely will happen.
You, more than anyone should know that 5 months in politics is a very long time and much will happen before election day in the USnA.
The world is changing and people have had enough. You, like the GOP fail to recognize and listen to masses of the center-right.
Today’s blog is a pantload.
#234 Bobbyon 06.20.16 at 5:52 pm
You completely missed the point. I would try explain it to you but really… I’m sure it would be futile.
#80 White Crock, BC 6-20-16 11:13PM
Well, yes the USA can print their own money, but that does not mean it will be “respected.” Inflation is the usual result, and a cheaper $ makes paying the debt so much easier…. WHO wins??
Trump does not understand our founding laws, and constitution, wherein it states all Federal Debt is to be repaid 100%. While his commercial businesses have gone BK, he personally has not. His record of paying the debts of his firms’, often referred to here as the “Trump Discount” gives this writer no comfort. The guy talks of “TAX CUTS” while we have not actually passed a budget in a few years….. This gives me NO reason to believe the noise from either of our two main parties.
A comment on Brexit.
Frankly, I believe Great Britain will be better served by leaving the EU. As an island nation, the people have a sort of ‘island mentality’ which I see as a good, and valuable trait. Australia and New Zealanders follow suit.
Secondly, the EU is not showing itself to be a ‘workable’ in my humble opine. Yes, there will be short term pains, and dislocations. I hope their sovereignty trumps here.
Iceland & Switzerland have decided ‘no.’ Netherlands wants a vote.
Apparently, guys get much more crotchety as we age. I just wonder what a few more years will do? Arrrgh!!!
M64WI
I give up. Few here understand politics in America, yet are so passionate and insistent with some of the dumbest proposals I’ve read in ages. If I had a dollar for each Canadian friend who said, “Wait…. you mean your elections aren’t based on popular vote? What’s this Electoral College? You mean people have to go to College to participate?” I truly cannot believe it. NO SHIT PEOPLE! WAKE UP! GET EDUCATED. Then, and only then, should you share your opinions, advise, or considerations. I can’t tell you the utter ignorance I’ve read over the past 24 hours on this blog. For example, one commenter actually believes Drumpf can “switch sides” now and become a Democrat to take place of Hillary. Seriously? That’s not even permissible. The nominees are CHOSEN. Primaries are OVER. Now on to the GENERAL ELECTION, where everything changes and Drumpf has his lumpy ass handed to him on a silver platter. The ridiculous rhetoric and idiocy I’ve been reading here for the past few days is astounding. For how “educated” and “worldly” many of you may like to think you are, I’ve seen a hell of a lot more foolishness and ignorance than intelligence this week.
Also, in case all of you pathetic Drumpf supporters missed it, this just in…. Enjoy! LMFAO!
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/us/politics/donald-trump-money-campaign.html?emc=edit_na_20160620&nlid=72258202&ref=cta&_r=0
Andrew woburn, #55, Uncle Buck will be a bonfire with a 20 trillion debt, before the other liabilities of social security and Medi, etc, etc.
Just ask a German how many wheels the Yankee Jack Wagon will lose.
Weimar and the Romans won’t be first after all.
Banks could lose $12 billion…
A child would ask a wise question: Is that a lot?
Answer: No not really. It’s less than a year’s profit for the big banks. Actually it’s less than six lousy months of profit. Oh doom, oh gloom.
Vancouver and out laying areas RE prices are going to hold strong regardless of what happens.
If they dump 20% it’s probably what they appreciated in 5 months.
Toronto same deal it will stay quite strong as will outlying burbs.
But other parts of Canada are going to feel the pain.
Middle class is getting choked out via RE inflation.
#88exburban
Yup, vans the place to be, the Chinese love it.
It’s just a fact people deal with it.
I agree pretty much with everything Garth repeats on this blog. I’ve read every single post here since 2008. The points are logical and backed by sound reasoning. However, what’s amazing and mind boggling is the acceleration in the opposite direction of everything that’s been warned about here.
I didn’t believe that a collective society (Vancouver) could be so incredibly speculative. This mania here is way beyond the euphoria of the late 90’s tech bubble.
It would seem that the day of reckoning is going to be that much more destructive in YVR when this all unravels. Artificially low interest rates are allowing otherwise moneyless people to extend and pretend that they are wealthy or becoming wealthy (on paper anyways).
In YVR, this parabolic rise in prices (on top of what were already outrageous prices) is so contrary to what is otherwise a sloppy Canadian and global economy. There are no underlying fundamentals supporting such prices. Houses have become casino chips here.
It’s so surreal living here watching prices rocket even faster away from any sort of relationship to incomes or rents. It all feels so illusory yet persists somehow…
How does an entire local population become so delusional? Maybe it’s the green stuff here.
#71 A Sceptic Tank on 06.20.16 at 10:39 pm
———————————————————
You believe that TO receives an average of only about 55,000 new residents a year? You must not live here.
I live in Langley BC, and a house down from us sold for over $1M, and a Chinese couple bought it. Incredible as it sounds we live in a rural part of Langley, and were surprised they are buying out this far from Vancouver. The house was empty for some time …. We feel we are being squeezed out the housing market, until there is a serious correction … but, who knows it seems nobody really cares. The real estate market has become stupid is, stupid does ……
Seriously? One ‘Chinese’ couple (who were probably born in YVR) buys in the hood and you feel “squeezed out of the housing market”? Yup, stupid is what stupid does. — Garth
If his Requiem for the American Dream applies to Canada (as to how the 0.1% control government and the economy) then I am all for seeing the Banks and CMHC get whacked per Moody’s warnings.
To maintain lifestyle from the shrinking profit pie going to the 0.1%, the majority of Canadians are in heavy debt and gambling on housing prices as the only alternative to making a lot more money (in 2015 Cdn CEOs make 184 times the average worker salary, in 2014 Canada’s richest 86 people have as much wealth as the poorest 11.4 million/32.4% of the Cdn population).
A manifest Moody’s warning will be a wake-up call to curtail the power of financial institutions and the 0.1%’s influence on the economy and government.
It will also whack the 0.1%’s pocket books as well…a very good thing.
For it will show that they, the 0.1%/184 times crowd, are no smarter and thus, deserve much less money, power and influence.
#58 Smoking Man on 06.20.16 at 9:37 pm
What wealth gap. A pan handler in Toronto makes more than a lot of collage grads living in mom’s basement.
In a sense a pan handler is an entrepreneur of sorts. Ownership of one’s existence so under rated.
The only thing stopping a pan handler from going huge is he don’t know how to franchise.
———–
Glorious post, Smokie.
Time to read:
The Penny Opera by Berthold Brecht.
Smokey,
In case you are not familiar with Berthold Brecht, here’s a hint:
“Please show me the way to the next Wiskey Bar”
“Dear Client,
As you may be aware the United Kingdom takes to the ballot on the “Brexit EU-referendum” on Thursday 28 June.
We have an increased level of enquiries and activity around the physical exchange of Sterling [GBP] into other currencies, and other currencies into Sterling, along with an increased level of trading around UK stock markets and investments.
You can continue to trade ‘online’ via your account from 07.00 CET to 22.00 CET over this period for physical GBP exchanges and UK securities, however the Dubai office will be closed on Friday 24 June.
If you wish to contact our team directly, rather than online access, on Friday 24 June please contact our global Customer Care centre in Switzerland from CET 07.00 – 22.00 on the following number.”
==================================
Got this note from my bank today. Good times and drama ahead, even if it does turn out to be an overblown replay of Y2K.
Meanwhile Ms. BillyBob informs me a major poll is being conducted in her country regarding the opinion of citizens on a “Czech-it”, with the results to be published in the media tomorrow.
It’s a line of dominoes waiting to fall. Even if the UK narrowly votes to stay, the EU is done when the more mono-cultural countries decide it just isn’t working for them. The thing about the UK is that there has been so much immigration that of course the more recent arrivals will vote to stay. Duh! Interestingly, the Czech Republic is another country that is an EU member, but does not use the Euro…
@#94 The American
“The ridiculous rhetoric and idiocy I’ve been reading here for the past few days is astounding. For how “educated” and “worldly” many of you may like to think you are, I’ve seen a hell of a lot more foolishness and ignorance than intelligence this week. ”
*******************************************
Yep. And they’re allowed to vote.
@#83 Etobicoke
“Who voted for this kid?”
*******************************************
I think it was more a vote against Harper. His arrogant controlling style just rubbed most people the wrong way.
T2….a one term wonder then back to reality.
#5 Tom jones on 06.20.16 at 6:33 pm
Time for the great reset. When western economies need to go back to actual, real wages to support production and not just consumption….
Asian countries that have been saving and investing in plants and equipment who produce real goods will be the winners until the west learn to do the same again.
__________________________
The long term trend is that manufacturing will return to North America. But it’s not plants and equipment that will cause this to happen, it’s robots. They cost roughly the same to run anywhere so many will be placed closer to the consumer to reduce shipping cost of goods which will become the biggest variable cost.
Learning how to program, repair and work with robots in the future is inevitable, this is a terrific book on the trends shaping our future:
https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B016JPTOUG/ref=s9_simh_gw_g351_i1_r?pf_rd_m=A3DWYIK6Y9EEQB&pf_rd_s=desktop-1&pf_rd_r=PM2M72SHHFPZF918SS86&pf_rd_t=36701&pf_rd_p=b06971ce-9992-44c1-9ee0-eb9792e71b5e&pf_rd_i=desktop
great blog post! yes, the left will succeed and proceed and the bloated stock market will continue to offer investors gains. And as long as our CPI numbers continue to be fudged, rates will remain low and RE will continue forth on the high seas.
When the “movers and shakers” of this global financial system decide, they will pull the rug from underneath all of us. There is no escape…
…and if these so-called “Economists” with PHDs and Harry Rosen suits cruisin’ on Bay Street, Ottawa or NGO’s did know (they’re actually just posturing), our economic affairs wouldn’t be in the state they’re in.
in response to #80;
I ran into a smart guy who was doing his medical residency in Toronto.
He had been given a 200,000 line of credit at 3% from one of the big 5.
Seems like plenty of incentive to learn for those with high goals.
#79 Smoking Man on 06.20.16 at 11:03 pm
#73 NoName on 06.20.16 at 10:41 pm
#57 Metaxa on 06.20.16 at 9:33 pm
Multiple streams of income folks!
————
i don’t remember book mentions paper route, but i do clearly remember page 226
Turn Your Life Story into Money… Even If You’ve Been Miserable Failure
if i am ever to write a book…
…
Don’t even attempt it. Talking from experience.
Every day that goes by when you can’t create it just right. It’s tourcher….
I’m on year six. And it sucks.. Self induced tourcher
Not worth it. Eat dead stuff. Drink and stop trying to win anyone over.
It’s too much work and takes living out of life.
——————-
How about comic strip?
Something along a lines of alan ford. aceoll down and take a closee look at a caracters.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Ford_(comics)
#57 Metaxa
You’re a very insightful yet humble blog dog, and that post proves it. I really needed that encouragement. Was feeling a little disenfranchised past few days, wondering when all this hard work will pay off. Working my butt off, using every spare moment I have during the day trying my best to build this business stronger (with success but my goals are higher than this), while everyone else around me follows the herd into oblivion. I guess I just have to keep at it and remain patient. The mind is willing but the body is weak, so to speak. – Thanks, Metaxa – Neil Armstrong (John Lear).
LOL, you have no idea what a good real estate agent actually does to sell a home – not a clue.
Last month (July 2016), in the Central Okanagan alone, an area of less than 200,000 people, 858 property owners, chose to list and successfully SELL their property through a REALTOR®.
If you think all a REALTOR® does is stick a sign on a lawn and list the property on MLS® then you should give it a try. There is something called a “mere posting” whereby you can pay a discount brokerage a flat fee of $500.00 +/- to list your home for you on MLS®. That brokerage won’t do much anything else than list it for you along with your contact information but then, by your account, none do much more than that anyway. Give that a try. Let us know how it works out for you.
@ #84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.16 at 11:09 pm
—————————————————–
Exactly… I was hoping Winnie the Pooh would just do her own ORPP FAILURE. Now that will get scrapped.
Now I will have to pay more CPP but only for a few years. I would of been exempt from WINNIE’s Magic Crappy Return Pot of Honey ORPP.
Stupid thing is people commenting about the CPP increase are all “This is great!”
Uh… I would of preferred the 10K TFSA.
I still consider CPP a “Tax for the Mathematically Challenged”. If I croak without a spouse where does my invested money go…. 100% Death Tax.
My Spouse can collect 50%… Where is the other 50%? Sounds like a 100% or 50% tax to me… with a shitty ROI to go with it.
I think Winnie might do a new “Retirement Plan” though. All Citizens of Ontario will get a Free Play of the 6/49 monthly.. The Money won will be your retirement Fund. Oh… but that amount is Now TAXABLE.. LOL.
#81 Brydle604
And what a great day it will be when all “transfers of money from one party to another” are no longer monopolized by an archaic and secretive system of commercial banking. All shall be revealed.
NASA says the future of aircraft is electric:
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/armstrong/Features/leaptech.html
http://cbs4indy.com/2016/06/19/nasas-fully-electric-plane-could-eliminate-gas-guzzling-airliners/
But NASA is a clueless albatross. Personal flying vehicles will replace the need for jetliners. Go where you want to go in smaller numbers. Safer and less risk. Vertical take-offs instead of long runways. Elon Musk said he just didn’t have enough time to develop them, but someone else will, surely. It’s already here.
Solidworks 3D printer for $10,000 will do jigs and fixtures! Like I’ve said before, you can’t compete with approaching ZERO cost. aka DISRUPTION.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSW3-HYCiv8
f you think all a REALTOR® does is stick a sign on a lawn and list the property on MLS® then you should give it a try….. Let us know how it works out for you.
________________________________
I did. Sold my Mom’s home in Etobicoke that was a 10 minute walk from the subway using propertyguys.com
Printed out the feature sheets, split the time standing there for open houses with my brothers and received multiple offers. Sold to a flipper who has since completely gutted and sold it himself. We saved about $45,000 in fees and got the same amount agents said it was worth when they asked for the listing. Easiest money I ever saved.
Garth –
Do you really believe that the plebes in western ‘democracies’ will allow themselves to continue getting screwed by the elites? Like, forever? At some point – like the relentless rise in Cdn housing prices – this will stop, and disenfranchised, impoverished, screwed-over voters will say ENOUGH. Like they have a last opportunity to do in the UK before being crushed by the unelected, unaccountable, grasping Eurocrats.
You’re a pretty smart guy so I’m surprised you haven’t figured this out yet.
Angry people feeling disenfranchised and disentitled lash out. So refugees and immigrants are blamed (Brexit). Or an entire religion or country (Trump). Or a racial group (Vancouver).
You’re forgetting white men, old men, straight men, etc… They’re easy targets too for people to lash-out at
#114 devil dude “LOL, you have no idea what a good real estate agent actually does to sell a home – not a clue.”
I would agree. competent, ethical, real estate “agents” are contributory.
The problem arises with the incompetent, unethical, shysters. Unfortunately they seem to be ubiquitous here in BC. Your “board” which is responsible for oversight has done little to alter this perception.
I would suggest the issues could be rectified by the membership if there was a will to do so. The silence speaks volumes. My understanding, a percentage of fees paid by the vendor is funneled back to the mother ship. Consequently a homeowner funds (indirectly) an organization who, by their actions, appear to be at odds with consumers best interests.
When people know they are being gamed they seek alternatives. Your industry is due for a huge, well deserved, long overdue shakeup.
Perhaps send your criticism in another direction
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canadas-big-banks-could-withstand-a-severe-housing-crash-moodys/article30531315/
Looks like Moody’s calling for 30% nationally and 35% in Tdot/Vdot.
OTOH Garth have you considered applying for that Trump position….I can imagine the first exchange
Garth: Sir, if you wanna beat Clinton, you gotta get out and about.
Trump: Ya fired!!!!Can’t understand whacha saying!
sorry I meant oot and aboot!
Is it just my imagination, or are prices in Toronto for SFHs tempering as the summer passes? Have people run out of money? Where are all the foreign buyers you people always talk about?
#86 Exurban on 06.20.16 at 11:14 pm
Over 100,000 Chinese millionaires have moved to Vancouver, sparking everything from a reality show to a property boom making housing unaffordable. Dateline asks if the millionaire migrants are a blessing or curse.
….
There’s triple that number of Canucks in Hong Kong.
#94 The American — “Few here understand politics in America, yet are so passionate and insistent with some of the dumbest proposals I’ve read in ages. If I had a dollar for each Canadian friend who said, “Wait…. you mean your elections aren’t based on popular vote? What’s this Electoral College?”
Some of us may understand more than you give us credit for. Since 1888, there’s been only one election where the winner in the Electoral College (and eventual President) hadn’t also won the nationwide popular vote. So unless you’re implying a plot by “faithless electors 2016” you don’t have much of a point there.
I’m no Trump fan, but I see a man who’s been exceeding expectations for a year up against a woman who’s been missing them for nine. Don’t you remember when Hillary was the inevitable Democratic nominee, only to get pasted by some no-name first term black senator out of Chicago? Maybe she learned from that, maybe she’s a born loser in national politics. Dumb-ass American media spent months telling me how Marco Rubio, then running a distant third, was going to come up the middle between Trump and Cruz and win it all. What happened? Trump took 45% in Florida, in a four way race against the sitting local senator.
I’ve got three words for you: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins those three, it likely won’t be “Madam President.” Some here may see that as an impossible scenario. But fair’s fair. I think it may be possible, and I see a lot of other posters on here floating scenarios of all kinds which I think impossible. Trump is doing pretty well in the polls considering how hard the Republican establishment is working at putting Hillary in the White House.
May I ask if you are John O. Lear, aviator b.1942 & son of Bill Lear?
Just curious, thanks!
NTH
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/0260242c-370b-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#ixzz4CE9fv8MA
You are in a pub with your mates. You have just announced that you might leave. Actually you don’t know some of the people with you very well at all but they certainly know how to drink. You and a few of the others have been buying most of the drinks and some never seem to have any money when the kitty needs topping up. In fact one particular person never seems to have any money and is using the kitty to buy pork scratchings at a disturbing rate. Anyway, it’s been good. Many of you used to fight in the playground as youngsters and at least that is behind you now. Some argue that if you leave the party then fighting may become the norm again. But that seems to be like the Godfather philosophy, “Keep your friends close but keep your enemies closer”.
Although it’s a pub it describes itself as a “Private Gentleman’s Club”. But the club seems to take anyone as a member. Everyone knew the pork scratching fiend was bankrupt when he joined but you suspect that if your club hadn’t let him in he would have joined a rival organisation down the road. You can’t remember why you joined the club in the first place. You are aware that you have the Groucho Marx club membership attitude so you are not happy. There is so much wrong with the club and no one seems to care. The bar steward is in theory elected by the members but no one seems clear as to how that works. There is also a very big question mark hanging over the accounts. The numbers just don’t seem to add up.
Anyway, when you announce that you are thinking of leaving, everyone, literally everyone begs you to stay. All your friends in the pub, all the guys in the club that you don’t know very well, the bar steward (especially the bar steward who by the way is not offerring to make any changes) and even friends who are not in the club, and never will be, are begging you to stay to the point that you are beginning to wonder who is with your wife.
What to do? Stay, and keep pork scratching guy happy or Leave and see who is at home with your wife.
Banks could lose $12 billion…
—- no event to banks
—- big event to some people
The above was just a comment from the article therefore no copyright infringement
Yellen says Fed has legal right to use negative rates, but does not intend to do so.
How long before she finds a reason to revise the Fed’s “intention” and go negative? Any bets? After all, they have been revising their outlook with a peculiar frequency and using any reason they could find to not raise them (China is unstable, Brexit, etc.).
Garth, do you still find them credible?
Talking to a investor friend yesterday in Houston and he couldn’t believe the price our houses are per sq ft in Vancouver and Victoria .In Dallas and Houston you can find nice houses from $100,000 to $125,000 for living our investing that will give you nice cash flow $300 to $400 a month each house.Canadians are severly punished when it comes to house ownership big time.http://www.har.com/1006-doubletree-glen-dr/sale_1558604
#127 Brexit – not my text but awesome on 06.21.16 at 11:17
Excelled, that pretty much sums it up.
It is now common knowledge that the Republican Party has to reinvent itself . Trump could try and guess what that really means, then present that vision to the American people for the remainder of the campaign.
Start of with more Ivanka Trump. Even consider making her the running mate.
Need to orchestrate a shift to the middle. Blame all stupid things said in the past to bad advisers from the past.
My guess is we see more of a Democrat platform from the Trump campaign . He has no chance to win by bashing immigrants and religious groups. Same with bashing people who think machine guns are bad.
Trump needs to unite the Republican Party and begin the transformation. I do not think this is to win anymore….. it is hand the baton back to the next generation of Republicans.
Well, Bill More-n’-owe continues to disappoint! First the TFSA contribution limit is rolled back to $5500, and now this extended grab to ‘expand’ CPP.
Of course, contributions will increase before payouts, so there’ll be no improvement in the status of people like my parents, age 78 and 84, who subsist on CPP, OAS, and in-kind support from the families of their adult children – i.e.: ME.
I used to look foreard to the point in the year where my CPP and EI contributions were paid up, and I could get a little more cash flow in my budget, but now that date will get kicked farther down the calendar.
To make matters worse (as if more expenses and fewer jobs weren’t bad enough) there’s no benefit for individuals that save, or companies that invest for retirement.
Increased contributions to public plans should be offset by contributions to private plans.
Additionally, ALL types of family support payments (instead of just spousal and child supoort) should be tax deductible; if I have to support my parents because the ‘extended’ CPP and OAS won’t apply to them, depsite my being forced to increse my ‘contribution’ to the plan, I NEED a f’n break!
And increase the TFSA limit!
1776 really did come before 1867!
The Roots of Liberty! Get it! @ http://www.KrisAnneHall.com
You will be glad you did!
It is your Sovereign Duty!
Oh, and the latest reason to leave rates unchanged: Job growth is slowing down and may not continue at 2015 growth rates.
The official unemployment numbers are close to all-time lows, fer Pete’s sake! I do not believe them anyway, but let’s say the Fed uses these numbers in their decision-making – are they expecting 0% unemployment?
All in all, the Fed has lost all credibility and cannot hide the fact that they will use any reason they can find (and as ridiculous as it can be) to not raise rates. Latin America’s issues are next to be used as “reasons”. Or maybe it’ll be Japan’s aging population? Global warming? Let’s see…
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/tax-foreign-real-estate-flipping-1.3643389
The police state USA has just been ratified. Sad.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/20/sonia_sotomayor_dissent_in_utah_v_strieff_takes_on_police_misconduct.html
#52 Tiger “if house prices in Canuckistan fall 35% (as they did in the US – which would take us back to only late 2014 pricing in YVR) – Garth
That’s still will be 1 million for a crack shack in YVR.”
That’s true, BUT while the asset would only go down $650,000, the $650,000 debt (loss) would remain and have to be paid off with interest, selling, property tax and maintenance fees.
How long does it take to recoup a loss of 35%?
8.9 years at 5% growth a year.
http://www.bpadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/chart66.png
This blog is getting creepy again.
Creepy meter is UP!
Your TAX DOLLARS not working in Canada. Thank Bumbardier……
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/06/21/bombardier-to-shift-some-work-on-q400-out-of-toronto-200-positions-affected_n_10573112.html
moody’s – “money safe” ratings ?
$300 billion collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) issued in 2005-2007 (over half of the CDOs by value during that time period) that rating agencies gave their highest “triple-A” rating to, were written-down to “junk” by the end of 2009. (source:The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report (PDF). National Commission on the Causes of the Financial and Economic Crisis in the United States. 2011. pp. 228–9.)
.e securities the rating agencies designated “triple-A”.[1] The pools of debt the agencies gave their highest ratings to [2] included over three trillion dollars of loans to homebuyers with bad credit and undocumented incomes through 2007.[3] Hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of these triple-A securities were downgraded to “junk” status by 2010,[1][4][5] and the writedowns and losses came to over half a trillion dollars
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC)[39] set up by the US Congress and President to investigate the causes of the crisis, and publisher of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Report (FCIR), concluded that the “failures” of the Big Three rating agencies were “essential cogs in the wheel of financial destruction” and “key enablers of the financial meltdown”.[40] It went on to say
The mortgage-related securities at the heart of the crisis could not have been marketed and sold without their seal of approval. Investors relied on them, often blindly. In some cases, they were obligated to use them, or regulatory capital standards were hinged on them. This crisis could not have happened without the rating agencies. Their ratings helped the market soar and their downgrades through 2007 and 2008 wreaked havoc across markets and firms.”[40]
the “city”
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/jun/21/which-most-corrupt-cities-in-world
…”Britain’s private bankers, largely headquartered in the UK capital’s square mile – an institution which is itself shielded from most forms of democratic accountability through an archaic web of legal exemptions and historical conventions (the City is one of the only urban settlements on earth where businesses help elect the area’s political representatives, and control votes which vastly outnumber those of local residents) – manage $1.65 trillion of client assets between them, covering wealth from all over the planet. That money is protected from meaningful oversight through extraordinarily generous laws on tax, trusts, secrecy and domicile status, and a consistently lax enforcement regime. Nicholas Shaxson, author of the book Treasure Islands, which explores tax havens, argues that “financial services companies have flocked to London because it lets them do what they cannot do at home”.
#127 Brexit – not my text but awesome on 06.21.16 at 11:17
—————————————————-
No, I don’t consider that analogy awesome.
People hanging out in a pub is no way to describe 1 of 3 of the worlds top economic zones (EU, USA and China). Freer borders and open economies seem to work fairly well. Closing borders and closing economies may have a short-term benefit to the closed economy, but that will no doubt suffer longer-term, and could destabilize the entire region and cause a top economic zone to crumble.
#115 Gonkman on 06.21.16 at 9:49 am
————————————————–
Actually your estate will receive a $3000 CPP payout to help with funeral costs.
Well well well. Grandma Yellen just opened the option for negative rates in the coming US recession. In case you all are wondering she/ they are clueless. They make shit up as they go along. Almost time for a good old fashioned bank run.
The US will never have negative rates. — Garth
A year ago the Canadian left was holding up Venezuela as the model of a successful Socialist government. Of course socialism always is amazingly successful at providing more for everyone, right up until it is time to pay the bill.
And ultimately, you can’t steal enough from the latest haves to pay off the original haves. Now the fact that some places like Canada and Sweden have more dough to burn through than somewhere like Venezuela doesn’t mean socialism works. It just means it’s going to take us slightly longer to enter the poor house.
rant over. now, off you go, back to your leftist utopia.
#58 Smoking Man on 06.20.16 at 9:37 pm
What wealth gap. A pan handler in Toronto makes more than a lot of collage grads living in mom’s basement.
In a sense a pan handler is an entrepreneur of sorts. Ownership of one’s existence so under rated.
The only thing stopping a pan handler from going huge is he don’t know how to franchise.
—————————————————————–
The Chinese and Indians have this down to a science!
There are Whole villages known for Begging and they commute to big cities with their deformed charges to make the big bucks.
Sadly some healthy children are intentionally deformed to make them better beggars.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china-insider/article/1452514/investigative-report-highlights-plight-dongguans-disabled-beggar
LOL, you have no idea what a good real estate agent actually does to sell a home – not a clue. You mean like lying? At every new listing’s first open house that I attend, I’m told there is an offer. ( Yes, I need to get a life). Three months later the house is still for sale.
Yeah the offer fell through. Fishy I say.
#28 Freedom First
You should get help. Seriously.
FF007
#120 rainclouds on 06.21.16 at 10:28 am
Again you are ignorant of what really goes on.
The real estate profession is self regulated and policing. That is a privilege we MUST always be on guard to be considered worthy of or it can and would be taken away. If you feel we do not do an adequately job then, please, I encourage you to make a complaint on any such matter of conduct you deem inappropriate and in conflict of the public good. I am confident if you follow the process through you will observe a very serious protocol through which no person would want to be forced to defend themselves.
Perhaps your criticism could be better substantiated.
Postcard from delusional Vancouver
http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2072511/3538-w-29th-avenue-vancouver
#It’sAMoneyThang,Or… #TheChinaSyndrome… #BC’sVeryOwnPoliticalKryptonite
[Tyee] – ‘China Syndrome’ Paralyzes Politicians in Housing Affordability Crisis: Huge impact of foreign buyers cant be ignored, and raising the issue isn’t racist.
…””Look, home prices are up about 40 per cent in the last year and Vancouver didn’t get 40 per cent more undersupplied than it used to be in the last year,” Davidoff told CKNW on Friday.
Davidoff said there’s “a flood of cash” from foreign buyers looking for a safe haven. “This year its China, who knows next time,” he said. “Rich people who want to go to a low tax, low regulation, high safety environment, great physical space, are going to want to come to Vancouver.”
But federal, municipal and especially provincial politicians are all scared witless to say out loud what everyone else knows: we are letting ultra-wealthy Chinese and other investors make housing unaffordable. Not just in Metro Vancouver, but in Victoria and other regions.”…
http://www.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/06/21/China-Syndrome-Housing-Paralyzes-Politicians/
#BonusFinger…
https://youtu.be/AfK1IPLpcqs
If we look their inglorious records, those rating agencies should be rated first.
Just saying …
Brexit!!!! Have you seen this little video?Do you think he is just blowing hot air? To me he has some some good points.
https://youtu.be/JFt-pRIvL9E
#TuesdayMischief… #&YouCan’tMakeThisStuffUp,Or… #Sex&Money&Immigration… #NoBull,It’sTheWildWildWest..
“The law is strong, but the outlaws are ten times stronger.” – Zhia-Bei Zhu
[CBC] – Bull semen sexing battle leads to $330M award
Massive judgement issued against Chinese businessman who stole lucrative sex sorting technology
…”Industry observers say the ruling highlights an international issue involving Chinese businesses and the ignoring of patent law. But the decision also contains references to other questions for Canadian lawmakers.
Fitzpatrick notes that Fraser Biomedical was initially set up “for immigration purposes” to provide an investment vehicle for Chinese people who wanted to immigrate to Canada.
“In reality, the money that these people invested came from loans from Zhu, and they paid some fees to Zhu for the loans,” the judge says. “As such this was arguably a fraud against the Canadian government.”
Fitzpatrick also cites testimony from Zhu’s accounting manager who said he used nominee shareholders and directors to mask the fact that he owned certain companies.
According to the ruling, this was allegedly done to evade payment of Canadian taxes, to obtain government grants and to sidestep securities regulations.”…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bull-semen-xy-sexing-1.3644165
So conservatively, if 300,000 homes in greater Vancouver lost $400,000 in value, the area would realize a $120 billion loss in value, all while the CMHC and the big banks would only lose $18 billion.
The opposite of risk is opportunity. Instead of leveraging this 100+ billion new equity in investing in: technology, health science, or manufacturing (and creating jobs, tax revenues, opportunities and building sustainable wealth) Vancouverites re-invested in a double down round of real estate speculation.
hundreds of sham transactions
2001 through early 2011,
SEC Charges Medical Device Manufacturer With FCPA Violations
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2016-126
Washington D.C., June 21, 2016 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that Massachusetts-based medical device manufacturer Analogic Corp. and its wholly-owned Danish subsidiary have agreed to pay nearly $15 million to settle parallel civil and criminal actions involving Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) violations.
https://www.sec.gov/news/pressrelease/2016-126.html
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/analogic-subsidiary-agrees-pay-more-14-million-resolve-foreign-bribery-charges
good thing the tax dollars are invested in Canada…
http://globalnews.ca/news/2770397/future-b-c-transit-buses-to-be-made-in-china/
To compare Sweden and Canada is like to compare Mount Everest with a heap of garbage…..
#151 Marie
A great deal flip it and make an easy $500,000.
#66 jay on 06.20.16 at 10:16 pm
“Yeah, this is what all these tax breaks and cmhc breaks etc etc are for. When is the gov’t going to start taxing these freeloaders. Ridiculous !!! http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-family-cashes-in-on-hot-housing-market-to-wander-the-world-1.3642714”
——————————————————————
Hey Jay, you look like a sour grape. It’s a great story that this couple sold their house to travel. It’s not free loading, they are entitled to their tax free capital gain and do what the heck they want to do with it.
Made in China?
Chiristie Clark on 06.21.16 at 4:19 pm said:
good thing the tax dollars are invested in Canada…
http://globalnews.ca/news/2770397/future-b-c-transit-buses-to-be-made-in-china/
***************************************
Yes, it is a good thing. How else do you expect Chinese nationals to come to Vancouver and buy million dollar houses?
At #125: ROTFL, you proved my point perfectly. Thank you. I’m not sure why you pulled 1888 out of the air as your starting point in American policies where the EC is involved, but the fact is it has happened twice since 1888, not once. In 1888 Grover Cleveland won the popular vote but lost the election when Benjamin Harrison got 233 electoral votes to Cleveland’s 168. In 2000 Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the election to George Bush. In the most highly contested election in modern history, the U.S. Supreme Court stopped the Florida recount of ballots, giving Bush the state’s 25 electoral votes for a total of 271 to Gore’s 255. Additionally, our nation’s history expands well beyond 1888. So, why not include the other times the phenomenon has happened? How about in 1824 Andrew Jackson won the popular vote but got less than 50% of the electoral votes. John Quincy Adams became the next president when he was picked by the House of Representatives. Or, how about In 1876 Samuel Tilden won the popular vote but lost the election when Rutherford B. Hayes got 185 electoral votes to Tilden’s 184.
Anyway, I’ve implied no plot whatsoever. As I’ve said, it is basic math for those of us who know how to count, and for those of us who understand Drumpf has not won the majority vote in any of the primaries. 45% you say in Florida to a sitting Senator? Uhhhhh NO. You mean 45% (which isn’t a majority, but maybe it is by Canadian standards). Again, thank you for proving my point…
You asked if I remember when Hillary was the inevitable Democratic nominee, only to get past by “some no-name first term black senator out of Chicago?” I have words for you… First, what does him being black have to do with anything? Second, Hillary was never the inevitable Democratic nominee, and many people already understood that. Obama became the nominee for the General Election by way of both EC AND the popular vote. So, I’d say you’re watching the wrong news source. The American people voted, and the EC agreed that Obama would move on to represent the Dems in the General.
If you’ve read my posts, you’d understand whatever the media is saying, you must take it with a grain of salt because they know little. As for your comment of Hillary being a “born loser in national politics,” that’s perhaps the most naive comment of them all. She was the Senator of New York, on to become the freaking Secretary of State of the United States of America (which, you probably don’t understand holds more power and esteem than the Vice President).
As for American media spending months telling you how Marco Rubio, then running a distant third, was going to come up the middle between Trump and Cruz and win it all, again I would encourage you to change your station away from Faux “News,” because most media did NOT report that whatsoever. For the record, the media was all over the map with the republiclowns and who would take the prize.
As for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, all I can say to that is geeeeeezus christ on a cross. Do your math again. Trump is doing pretty well in the polls, you say? Uhhhhh, NO. He’s behind over 12 points and that gap continues to widen with the popular vote. Lastly, for the record, it isn’t the “Republican establishment” working hard at putting Hillary in the White House. It is the Dems working to get her there. The republicans cannot afford for her to become President for a number of reasons, the very first that comes to mind being the next appointed Supreme Court Justice.
Face it, republiclowns are dead in the water on this election. It is done for them.
Speaking of debt, lies and cover-ups. The US Treasury posts daily updates of the entire federally funded debt here:
http://treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm
In FY 2015 it was claimed the federal deficit was $438.9 billion.
This year, FY 2016, the federal government in its latest budget has estimated that the deficit will be $616 billion.
If you look at the tables from the Treasury’s own data. You can see that there is a huge amount of debt not being accounted for under the “official” deficit figures.
Debt on June 18, 2015 = $18,152,689,167,905
Debt on June 20, 2016 = $19,265,744,770,778
This is a 1 year debt increase of $1,113,055,602,873
The George W. Bush administration would pull similar tactics by not counting the expenses of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars into the official treasury yearly budgets.
This is just one example of looking beneath the surface and spin of the daily blabber from the financial media and finding rot underneath.
There is no recovery.