Exit

DAD

If you hate volatility, stay at the cottage for the next month. Unplug. Be like Trudeau. Buy a canoe. Learn to vape. Get a tat. Smoke something you find in the woods. Just don’t watch BNN, CNN or read this blog. Please. I implore you.

First, there’s Brexit. On Thursday UK voters decide to stay or leave the European economic union. A no-brainer, ya’d think. Leaving will cost a ton of jobs, put Britain on a path to recession, whack financial markets and imperil, oh, 700 million or so people. But this has been largely turned into a referendum on immigration by the right-wingers and nationalists, who argue open EU borders let too many of those dangerous brown people in.

Doubt it? Look at the poster unveiled last week by the UKIP (the knuckle-dragger opposition and ‘Leave’ leaders), called ‘Breaking Point’. White supremacists everywhere would love it, with that  horde of sinister refugees streaming in. This, said the ‘Remain’ forces, has “echoes of literature used in the 1930s.” And it does. Human nature hasn’t changed. We still suck.

BREXIT POSTER

But since the murder last week of MP Jo Cox, the tide seems to be turning. The first poll since the event showed ‘Remain’ pulling ahead of ‘Leave’ after three weeks of opposite momentum. Bookies say the probability of a negative vote has declined to just 30% from 40% last week, so if you put your money on the status quo, you have a 70% chance of winning.

And that’s that. But the trip from here to next weekend will not be smooth. Already we’ve seen a flight to safety swell bond prices and crush yields (they temporarily went negative – minus .038% – in Germany). That’s impacted the ECB’s giant stimulative bond-buying program ($90 billion a month) and sent $1.25 trillion in bonds lower than the deposit rate. Meanwhile European inflation has been at 0% or less for ten of the last 18 months. Deflation. And a Brexit would make it way worse. Quelle mess.

But, if you believe the oddmakers (and common sense), it won’t happen. Thus, expect further violence.

TRUMP

Now, there’s more. The Republican National Convention to nominate Donald Trump opens July 18th, nine days before the Fed makes its next interest rate announcement. Since he demolished his opponents, fair and certainly square, he’ll be crowned. But the Visigoths know The Donald will destroy their party for at least the next one or two election cycles, and represents the same unfortunate side of humanity as do the Brexit bumpkins.

As the UK ‘leave’ forces will flame out, so will Trump. He can’t win, thanks to the Electoral College and his embrace of the politics of division. But he will roil markets, negatively influence the national agenda, become a massive distraction and might even turn the RNC event in poor Cleveland into a street slugfest.

Meanwhile the American economy’s been in a cooling phase, with lower job creation numbers that made the Fed end its flirtation with a June rate hike. As Brexit stomps Euro bond yields, US debt prices have also been rising – part of a global flight to safety. It’s not over yet.

TRUDEAU

And, lastly, we have the gang in Ottawa who now have another problem to deal with – lower mortgage rates. A three-year variable is at 2%, and fiver-fixed rates range from 2.32% (at Ahmed’s Samosa & Home Loans Emporium) to 2.49% at all of the big banks. Combined with dire words of warning in the last few days, we’re obviously getting closer to direct federal government intervention.

Says Capital economics chief North American economist Paul Ashworth: “This is a bubble. A very big bubble. And it is going to end in tears. The Bank (of Canada) claim that the risk of a housing downturn is small because there is little risk of either a spike in the unemployment rate or a jump in long-term interest rate risk premiums is naïve in the extreme.”

Says TD: “The party will come to an end. Markets are ripe for a correction.”

Says RBC economist Robert Hogue: “With affordability, or rather unaffordability, having moved off the scale in the past three to four years, the historically volatile Vancouver-area market is undoubtedly under substantial stress. It is vulnerable to a marked correction.”

Says T2: “This is a very significant crisis…“We’re on a trajectory that doesn’t have any good outcomes. What we’re all hoping for is to stabilize the market… We need to make sure we’re reining things back a little bit, in a way that doesn’t completely devalue those people whose retirements and whose equity is still in their homes.”

And we just heard that 90% of all detached houses in Vancouver are “worth” more than $1 million. At least for a while.

Dude. Pass the paddle. And the bong.

236 comments ↓

#1 Vampire Studies GMST 454 on 06.19.16 at 11:43 am

Happy Father’s day all.

#2 North Burnaby Investor on 06.19.16 at 11:49 am

Concord Pacific does it again with their latest project in Yaletown Burnaby, Concord Brentwood!!! Instant sell out yet again!

#3 Jas on 06.19.16 at 11:50 am

I am back. Lol.

#4 Tiger1960 on 06.19.16 at 11:50 am

Happy fathers day!

#5 AK on 06.19.16 at 11:58 am

First…!!!

#6 Balmuto on 06.19.16 at 11:58 am

Says the housing market (plugging ears): “La La La La La La La La La”

#7 AK on 06.19.16 at 12:06 pm

“Says T2: “This is a very significant crisis…“We’re on a trajectory that doesn’t have any good outcomes.”
====================================
73% of Canadians are already home owners.

Why is this a crisis??

Could have something to do with 40% of buyers in the GTA shouldering at least a 450% debt-to-income ratio to become owners. — Garth

#8 John t on 06.19.16 at 12:16 pm

Garth is predicting that donald Trump cannot win…

This means donald trump will be the next president!!!

A Trump win is impossible. Learn something of US politics. — Garth

#9 pinstripe on 06.19.16 at 12:18 pm

This topic has been discussed at the coffee shop for many mornings.

trump and sanders have accomplished a lot by exposing how fixed the system is against the people.

The global economy, with the policy of free money, is exposed to be a failure and all politicians will never admit to their mistakes. Sovereign debt and all the political correctness is destroying everything in its path.

As for Brexit and the euro is concerned, its does not matter because the outcome will be the same. TIME is the only choice. The euro is a failed experiment.

trump is receiving a lot of flak for the WALL but in the meantime the politicians in washington are planning to build a bigger and stronger fence (wall) around the white house.

In Canada the right wingers are stabbing each other like never before. In AB the WRP and PC are paving the path for Rachel to be Premier for many years.

The big question for the geezers at the coffee shop is “How and what do Canadians need to do to attract a Trump person as our Leader?”

#10 Paul on 06.19.16 at 12:22 pm

#7 AK on 06.19.16 at 12:06 pm

“Says T2: “This is a very significant crisis…“We’re on a trajectory that doesn’t have any good outcomes.”
====================================
73% of Canadians are already home owners.

Why is this a crisis??

Could have something to do with 40% of buyers in the GTA shouldering at least a 450% debt-to-income ratio to become owners. — Garth
———————————————————-
Lets see 73% own 15% bad credit can’t buy 10% no down payment .
JUST what could go wrong. lalalalala

#11 George Hull on 06.19.16 at 12:22 pm

Better get your reverse mortgage soon because your home’s equity will be hundreds of thousands less in years to come.

#12 For those about to flop... on 06.19.16 at 12:24 pm

Some people on the blog aren’t into sport….that’s o.k.

But to deny the massive amounts of money ,investment and globalization of sport is just ridiculous.

Recently Forbes rated the Dallas Cowboys as being worth 4 Billion dollars.

The North American sports teams have not seen the wave of foreign ownership that has flooded Europe with , you guessed mainly Asian buyers competing with each other to buy their favourite franchises.

In England,in the premier league only a couple of teams have British owners and a club from Birmingham named Aston Villa who was owned by American billionaire Randy Learner was sold to an Asian consortium because his pockets weren’t deep enough.

Players wages are also out of control,Pavel Datsuk of the Detroit Red Wings announced his retirement from the NHL,he still has 7.5 million U.S for a one year contract that the team will take a cap hit for and he won’t touch a puck.

Wayne Rooney, of my beloved Manchester United earns more money in one week than I will earn this decade….around 500k CAD a week for kicking a ball around.

The U.S Open Golf finishes up today, they are fighting over a prize pot worth $10 Million U.S ,all for hitting a little ball around for four days.
The P.G.A tour did not lose one tournament sponsor during the 2008 financial meltdown.

Later on some of the financial companies were rebooted/rebranded but the money continued to flow and to some that’s all that matters.

The technology and medical science that goes into keeping these athletes who are also treated like currency also flows into mainstream society.

Even our diet and nutrition is affected by these teams, one obvious example is a university down in Florida wanted to better rehydrate their players and Gatorade was born.

Soccer this morning, then some golf and then game seven of the NBA finals is on.

It’s a rainy day in the Couv….no problem….

M41BC

#13 Ogopogo on 06.19.16 at 12:28 pm

Interview with the head of CMHC in the G&M. How revealing is this?

———-
“Years before finding his way into the public sector, Mr. [Evan] Siddall was a rising star in the investment banking world with a large home in Toronto, a Muskoka cottage and a winter cabin. These days, the head of Canada’s housing agency owns little in the way of real estate.

He and his wife sold their Toronto laneway house last year. Mr. Siddall, 51, rents in Ottawa and usually commutes to meetings in Toronto from his home in Collingwood, Ont., where his wife, fellow former investment banker Garnet Pratt Siddall, now heads craft brewery Side Launch Brewing Co. In fact, Mr. Siddall has chosen the restaurant, Pizzeria Libretto, in part because it serves his wife’s beer.

I ask the man in charge of steering Canada’s uneven housing market through turbulent economic waters whether he thinks houses are a good financial investment.

“You know, I’m not sure they are now in Canada,” he replies. “I’ve never made a lot of money in the housing market, strangely enough, even though my generation has, and I’ve lived in New York and I’ve lived in Toronto.”
——————–

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/careers-leadership/how-the-head-of-cmhc-is-shaking-up-the-housing-regulator/article30502122/

#14 TurnerNation on 06.19.16 at 12:28 pm

#152 For those about to flop

Why are schools needed, when kids are being trained to a level just above morons, to sit 8 hours a dayin front of computer screens and soon to be replaced by AI or offshored or to robots. .

They are wards/slaves of the State.

#15 Sait Herb on 06.19.16 at 12:32 pm

With Trudeau on board with the bubble talk and making sure to stabilize the housing market, it means he is going to intervene to hold prices high and protect the old peoples retirement.
If he does something and market crashes, lots of people screwed.
If he does something to hold prices at this crazy high level, just as many people screwed, because they are priced out and need to move to small remote town to afford there own home, or try to rent.
I think prices are going to go even higher with word that the T2 is going to use his power to keep the prices up. This will give people confidience to jump in the market without the fear of a crash.
Why would anyone sell for less, when they can just wait for more.
This housing market is hopeless. It doesn’t make sense that prices keep going up, just because seller keep asking for more.

#16 LL on 06.19.16 at 12:32 pm

…”Quelle mess”….

Should be “Quel mess” (UN mess, LE mess).

“Quelle” is feminine adjective Garth.

Sorry I am a technical writer.

Then you should know ‘mess’ is feminine? Capiche? — Garth

#17 Ogopogo on 06.19.16 at 12:32 pm

The G&M comments threads are infested with this type of dimwit:

#7 AK on 06.19.16 at 12:06 pm
“Says T2: “This is a very significant crisis…“We’re on a trajectory that doesn’t have any good outcomes.”
====================================
73% of Canadians are already home owners.

Why is this a crisis??

Each type someone has to explain to the Neanderthal that you don’t “own” a home until it’s paid off. You “own” debt, and lots of it these days.

Are you a homeowner or a mortgage ower ? They’re two very different things.

#18 TurnerNation on 06.19.16 at 12:33 pm

Someone pointed out it’s just amazing in past months how every event just happenes to play into the Elites’ top agenda of rolling back freedom and first world lifestyle (Climate Chage action); turning us all into genderless worker slaves.
Non stop headlines. ..Prince, Bowie, lone nutters.
Just amazing coincidences. Keep em coming.

#19 Got out in time on 06.19.16 at 12:41 pm

As balanced thinking people always knew, and it was elaborated on this blog many times: Foreign buyers are NOT the reason for the local Vancouver madness….

http://globalnews.ca/news/2768447/vancouver-homes-being-flipped-like-cheap-penny-stocks-according-to-realtor/

Happy Father’s Day to all Dad’s.

#20 conan on 06.19.16 at 12:41 pm

The current Brexit odds mean nothing. As all of the recent action is based on “hedging of bets” in order to create a positive pay out regardless of final outcome. Even the betting houses do this. These people do not make money being on the right side of the outcome. They make money on the VIG. Otherwise known as the MER in mutual fund land.

#21 Al Puttah on 06.19.16 at 12:43 pm

From June 1st, 2016:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/06/01/the-little-short-2/
#66 Smoking Man on 06.01.16 at 10:14 pm
We need a Canadian version of http://www.breitbart.com/
I can think of no one better then the great Gartho to head it up. . . .
********************************************************

Dear Smoking Man, most respectable,

There can not be a Canadian version of that page! It would be bankrupted by the ‘human rights’ commissars and the likes of Richard Warman, and its owner imprisoned.

#22 For those about to flop... on 06.19.16 at 12:49 pm

#13 TurnerNation on 06.19.16 at 12:28 pm
#152 For those about to flop

Why are schools needed, when kids are being trained to a level just above morons, to sit 8 hours a dayin front of computer screens and soon to be replaced by AI or offshored or to robots. .

They are wards/slaves of the State.

///////////////////////////////

Hey TN,yeah some people say that schools only exist so their parents can spend more time at work to ultimately pay more taxes.

My wife is an education assistant who works in the classroom with the kids with ministry designation of all ranges.

She does not baby them she tries to make them as independent as possible and adapts and modifies the original curriculum so the student gains self confidence and can think for themselves.

She is the brains, I am the beauty…

M41BC

#23 LL on 06.19.16 at 12:55 pm

Then you should know ‘mess’ is feminine? Capiche? — Garth

I don’t capiche because mess means “desordre” so it’s masculine.

A popular expression will be: “Quel bordel” so “Bordel” is also masculine.

Capiche? LOL

#24 Brad Noel on 06.19.16 at 12:55 pm

Garth, it’s no longer the bong, it’s the Vape. You’re so 90’s!

Stoned is stoned. Besides, I referenced both. — Garth

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.16 at 12:57 pm

Interesting picture.
I remember the exact same thing happening to a neighbours car many years ago only it was a group of kids using small rocks to scratch “colour” pictures on to the side of a brand new car…….needless to say.
Dad was not happy.

#26 LP on 06.19.16 at 1:00 pm

#11 George Hull on 06.19.16 at 12:22 pm
Better get your reverse mortgage soon because your home’s equity will be hundreds of thousands less in years to come.
**************************
How does that make any sense? Say you borrow $250,000 reverse mortgage on a home valued at $500,000 now. Make no payments, so the loan doubles about every 9 years. So fast forward 10 years and now you owe half a million.

BUT, the market goes down and then your house is only valued at say $400,000 or even lower. You won’t be able to sell it for the amount of your loan and will have to take a cheque to the CHIP office for the difference.

#27 SitesTree.com on 06.19.16 at 1:01 pm

Is it a bad idea to buy a condo at East York?

1 bed + den : max price : 190k (doable with, 45 years old condo).

Price to Rent Ratio: <= 13.20

Maint: 560

with 10% down monthly carrying: <= 1445 (mort, tax, maint) + insurance

with 20% down monthly carrying: prop tax:95$/month, $100 rent over pay $5 insurance overpay (probably $225 or $250 will be more logical)


From:
http://www.creditfinanceplus.com/calculators/house-flipping-net-profit.php

Purchase price
190000
Other acquisition fees
1500
CASH DOWN AND RENOVATIONS ON THE PROPERTY
Cash down on mortgage
19000

10.00
%
Cost of improvements
0
Cost of repairs
0
MORTGAGE
Mortgage balance
171000
$
Loan term (years)
25
Max: 50
Interest rate
2.5
%

Number of months
60
Reselling price
161500
Annual appreciation
-3.2
%
Mortgage balance left to pay
-144768.90
$
Costs of sale
-0.00
$
Taxes on capital gain
-0.00
$
Net profit from resale
16731.10
$

Fail. No CHMC premium. No commission on sale. No allowance for property tax or condo fees. Find a better calculator. — Garth

#28 TurnerNation on 06.19.16 at 1:02 pm

Final thought…I see blog dog thought police have invented an add-on to filter out M “Wasps” aka “oppressors”. As if.
Art imitating life. I’m used to it. My main goal is trading in my own online accounts to build net worth and keep living my 4* lifestyle on a 3* budget. I visit here seeking alpha and trading ideas.

#29 LL on 06.19.16 at 1:05 pm

I don’t capiche because mess means “desordre” so it’s masculine.

In fact the right meaning is “disaster” (masculine).

#30 LL on 06.19.16 at 1:14 pm

That’s true..Trump will never win.

He don’t fit enough in the mold.

He does not have broad enough support, nor the Electoral College votes from the states that matter. — Garth

#31 Condo Minion on 06.19.16 at 1:20 pm

My last condo purchase in Toronto was in 1997.

Price to income ratio was only 1.6 to 1. Yep, that’s right.

And it was downtown, in a desirable area, TTC etc… all close by. It was bought in the twilight of the last crash. Had sold for triple that amount just 9 years before.

And my salary was well under $100K.

Sold it for another triple some 13 years later.

Those days are coming back, people.

At the current pace, having hit the peak this spring, around 2019-2020 should be the start of a sweet spot for vultching 416 property.

This crash will be way worse than 1990.

But very profitable for those who buy afterwards.

#32 Never Say Never on 06.19.16 at 1:36 pm

It’s true the electoral math clearly works against Trump but it’s not ‘impossible’ for him to win. Weirder things have happened in politics and never underestimate how bad of a candidate Hillary is.

#33 Chris in Nanaimo on 06.19.16 at 1:41 pm

Interesting how insidious our use of language has become…..

‘Black Pride’…

‘Gay Pride’….

‘White Supremacy’…….

Apparently Whites aren’t allowed to be proud…..that’s being racist….

If you didn’t think ‘gay’ was a race, we’d be proud of you, too. — Garth

#34 Lee on 06.19.16 at 1:46 pm

#2

No it’s not. Agents tie up all the units to try to resell for a profit. How fast a condo project sells out is no indication of demand.

#35 Damifino on 06.19.16 at 1:48 pm

#23 LL

“I don’t capiche because mess means “desordre” so it’s masculine.”
———————————-

Now we know why English didn’t become the default language of the world.

What gender is “conundrum”?

#36 conan on 06.19.16 at 1:49 pm

RE: #9 pinstripe on 06.19.16 at 12:18 pm

“” How and what do Canadians need to do to attract a Trump person as our Leader?” ”

Pretend here for a second that I am sitting at the same coffee table:

Last thing the World needs now is a leader like Trump.

He will be bad for Canada. He is going to mess with international trade in the same ways that eventually led to WW 2.

The USA might get some gain in the short term (at the expense of Canada and Mexico). but war in the long term.

IF Trump can’t balance the books he will send the tanks into “WTF?” countries, so that he can balance the books.

He won’t listen to his advisers. He will always say the wrong thing at the wrong time .

He needs to first apprentice in the “Ways of Nations”….he is clueless.

Fine, make him the Diplomat of Bikini Island, but President?

Taxi!

#37 SitesTree.com on 06.19.16 at 2:08 pm

On my last note: there are minor mistakes as well..like I did not put Misc. Selling Costs for 5 year calc..

#38 Strathcona on 06.19.16 at 2:14 pm

Garth,

I do agree with your assessment of current risks this year, but I don’t agree with your rosy view of outcomes. The UK has always been an island, and it became an empire without trading with europe. It was at war with various parts of it at different times. Somehow, there is to be an economic union (the EU), without a political one. The experiment of the ” United States of Europe “, was a failed one so far, and will never recover in its current form.

The EU is of course a German-French design anyhow.

I have heard noone express how the UK might have a renewed economic interest in her former colonies, like Canada, for greater trade and investment post-Brexit. Of course, T2 wouldn’t stand for that, as an EU stay is far more Quebec friendly.

I miss the rhetoric of how the UK must stay in the EU. Obama flies himself there months ago to tell people how to vote. Bob Geldof lets everyone know how they should go. Next we need Bono and his large ego-matched sunglasses to tell Brits where to place an X.

The UK will survive a Brexit. Such an event is what the world needs anyhow. A shakeup. Bond yields may rise, sovereign debt may be questioned, and interest rates could come up too without Janet’s meddling.

Oh, and by the way, be careful how you sing the national anthem, you might offend someone by not being “PC” enough. Such garbage.

#39 For those about to flop... on 06.19.16 at 2:16 pm

#20 conan on 06.19.16 at 12:41 pm
The current Brexit odds mean nothing. As all of the recent action is based on “hedging of bets” in order to create a positive pay out regardless of final outcome. Even the betting houses do this. These people do not make money being on the right side of the outcome. They make money on the VIG. Otherwise known as the MER in mutual fund land.

////////////////////////////

Hey Conan,someone took the bait and bet £35,000 at 2-1 on the leave side or Lexit as I am calling it.

England’s result against Wales and the Jo Cox murder have backfired.

Conspiracy theorists will say this is why it was done, but as I pointed out a couple of weeks agog his is what happens with a lot of these referendums ,people use them to voice displeasure but then at vote time go with the status quo.

Nice donation…

M41BC

#40 Debtslavecreator on 06.19.16 at 2:16 pm

Brexit or not the euro is going to break hard within the next year or two
In a couple of years we will hear the words sovereign debt crisis
If GTA homeDEBTRENTERS want to have an idea of what their world will be like in 3-4 years visit Chicago and surrounding areas
Just this year the enslaved got the first bills for their 26 % increase in prop tax
On top of this they also got hit with an assortment of other taxes including monthly garbage collection fees

The neoliberal fraud is in its final stages
Oh what fun it will be
JO

#41 economictsunami on 06.19.16 at 2:19 pm

Sheesh and people call me a conspiracy theorist.

Brexit may cause a slight hiccup but is about as ominous as Y2K was.

Leave and they’ll have to negotiate many agreements to take the place of being a part of one trading zone.

Stay and the red tape will choke many SMEs.

(Brexit: The Movie

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-14/brexit-movie )

The Zero Guy didn’t make the movie but you may want to wear personal protection just the same.

Bookies???

They are playing with the odds daily. They have been burned large the last couple of years.

They are mere bookies, not pollsters who are having a hard enough time themselves.

The real story lies with the divided conservative cabinet/ party and how do you govern in the aftermath.

The truth be told that the scare mongering by the Remain side is mostly contrived by bureaucrats who benefit from keeping their unwieldy, behemoth bureaucracy intact.

As for Trump. How could you possibly vote for a guy with hair like that? He is obviously lying to himself about his massive comb over.

No wonder he wears baseball hats when it’s windy. His hair would wave like a yellow, nicotine stained flag.

Hey Donald, even from beyond the grave, Rene Levesque is thinking:

‘WTF’s wit de hair Don???’

#42 Vundo on 06.19.16 at 2:25 pm

Garth might be a smart guy, but a lot of smart guys said there was no way The Donald could ever get the nomination. Then he did, by a landslide. “Because the Electoral College” seems a weak argument when we have already seen him accomplish what was supposed to be impossible.

#43 LL on 06.19.16 at 2:26 pm

#35 -Damifino

Synonymous puzzle, mystery…so probably masculine.

#44 Caught on 06.19.16 at 2:27 pm

We will look back 5 years from now and realize this was a good of a buying opportunity for the S&P 500 (i.e. VFV) as 2009.

We’re near a major long term cyclical top in bonds. All of those boomers with majority bond portfolios (& Canadian banks as their equity component) will be sorry.

The overvaluation in the bond market is extreme.

#45 The Great Gazoo on 06.19.16 at 2:37 pm

“Dude. Pass the paddle. And the bong.”

Don’t bogart that joint buddy.

#46 Shawn on 06.19.16 at 2:38 pm

Volatility?

What’s to hate? Volatility is the best friend of the intelligent investor. Bring it on.

#47 Metaxa on 06.19.16 at 2:39 pm

This crash will be way worse than 1990.
yup. If it actually happens. Time will tell.

In Canada the right wingers are stabbing each other like never before. In AB the WRP and PC are paving the path for Rachel to be Premier for many years.
yup.

The troubling part to me is we (both US and Canadian) have allowed ourselves to be Balkanized, our media , our leaders allowing us to go tribal.

Take Mr. Harper, a man who never said anything really out of order but who did the most egregious things. Yet he still has his devotees. Marginalized as they are, they still manage to make a lot of noise.

The right in the US is very concerned with the Far Right and what that has inflicted on the GOP. You see purges even.
How that translates into Canada remains to be totally seen but I’d venture that unless we stop barking at the things the media dangles for us, unless we stop responding to the various dog whistle Internet stuff and return to the true tenets of conservatism that those of us who would describe ourselves as conservative will be out of the loop nation wide for years and years.

I’m an old Progressive Conservative. I stopped that when McKay sold out for a few helicopter rides and a hot wife because I’d seen that game before, usually with provincial NDP being dragged away from core values by wolves in sheep’s clothing.

I now, approaching my mid-70’s, either do not vote or I vote for the person regardless of party. (A system that doesn’t work so well in Canada, eh?)

But with oil not resolved, with so many under-employed and soon so many under water the coming months will be interesting.

You can either take Garth’s advice and prepare or you can waste your time slagging teachers on the Internet, your choice.

Remember the pre-election poll on here. So many of you absolutely convinced of a Harper victory. If you push for and get a Trump lite leader, O’Leary say, then prepare yourselves for decades out of power.

#48 Chris in Nanaimo on 06.19.16 at 2:42 pm

‘If you didn’t think ‘gay’ was a race, we’d be proud of you, too. — Garth’

Nice diversion Garth, I said no such thing. Simply pointing out that in our politically correct bizarro world Whites are not allowed to be ‘proud’….we’re labelled either Supremacists or Nationalists….

#49 Andrew Woburn on 06.19.16 at 2:50 pm

#171 BG on 06.19.16 at 1:33 am

Basically Ethereum is the platform, The DAO is an application. . . The weakness allowing the attack is in The DAO. The platform has not been compromised.
==================

Thanks. I do get that there is a difference just like Mt. Gox isn’t the blockchain, but if your cybercoins can still just disappear, how does a solid platform help? This isn’t meant as a sarcastic question, I’m really trying to get my head around this because the distributed ledger concept is potentially huge.

#50 Metaxa on 06.19.16 at 2:54 pm

The neoliberal fraud is in its final stages

I don’t think neoliberal means what you think it means.

#51 Brazil ex-pat on 06.19.16 at 2:57 pm

#36 conan on 06.19.16 at 1:49 pm
RE: #9 pinstripe on 06.19.16 at 12:18 pm

“” How and what do Canadians need to do to attract a Trump person as our Leader?” ”

Pretend here for a second that I am sitting at the same coffee table:

Last thing the World needs now is a leader like Trump.

He will be bad for Canada. He is going to mess with international trade in the same ways that eventually led to WW 2.

The USA might get some gain in the short term (at the expense of Canada and Mexico). but war in the long term.

IF Trump can’t balance the books he will send the tanks into “WTF?” countries, so that he can balance the books.

He won’t listen to his advisers. He will always say the wrong thing at the wrong time .

He needs to first apprentice in the “Ways of Nations”….he is clueless.

Fine, make him the Diplomat of Bikini Island, but President?

Taxi!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Your absolutely right. Invasion after invasion and 19 TRILLION dollars of debt are much better thanks to the Clintons, Bush’s and Obummer….

Whatever you do……DONT vote for someone that will stop invading sovereign nations and spending the country into the stoneage……

#52 cecilhenry on 06.19.16 at 3:13 pm

DELETED

#53 Andrew Woburn on 06.19.16 at 3:21 pm

#12 For those about to flop… on 06.19.16 at 12:24 pm
Some people on the blog aren’t into sport….that’s o.k.

But to deny the massive amounts of money ,investment and globalization of sport is just ridiculous.
===================

The globalization of sport provides a clear illustration of how extreme income inequality can develop even between members of the same team. Players who have global name recognition can command millions but their almost as talented teammates can only expect a small fraction of the pie. The same inexorable logic applies to corporations and investors who play in global markets and probably explains why the .001% are leaving the rest of us in the dust.

#54 nubbers on 06.19.16 at 3:26 pm

If the England v Wales result, or the tragic murder of a bright young thing by a far right Brexit supporting xenophobe does not prevent the UK from leaving the EU, then surely this will: Donald Trump thinks Britain should leave the EU

#55 BS on 06.19.16 at 3:26 pm

Combined with dire words of warning in the last few days, we’re obviously getting closer to direct federal government intervention.

There is no question federal intervention is coming. I think they target foreign buyers with restrictions or taxes. It would be the most politically palatable thing to do and would target YVR and YYZ.

We also have a BC provincial election 11 months away where it seems the main election issue is high RE prices. Rumour is the provincial government will grant the City of Vancouver the ability to tax vacant houses and condos in the next few weeks. Something the mayor has been asking for. We could also see a speculation tax coming for flippers. The rush to the exits for speculators is near.

If we make it to next year the BC Liberals will be running for their 5th consecutive term. BC is over due for an NDP government which has a strong base in BC. An NDP government pretty much guarantees a housing bust.

#56 Andrew Woburn on 06.19.16 at 3:44 pm

Chinese buyers drive rocketing home prices –

“The southern city of Shenzhen was again the top performer, with home prices rising 53.2 percent from a year ago.

The coastal city of Xiamen surpassed the top-tier cities and saw the second highest price rise of 28 percent. Shanghai prices rose 27.7 percent.”

They probably blame this on the Australians.

http://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-homeprices-idUSENNG6E0SA?

#57 For those about to flop... on 06.19.16 at 3:48 pm

This kid made a mistake on his Fathers Day cake….or did they…

M41BC

http://imgur.com/AZpgrTM

#58 Prince Polo on 06.19.16 at 4:09 pm

Would it be out-of-bounds for the federal government to force municipalities to collect 1% property tax per annum, based on the higher of:
i) assessed value OR
ii) latest SOLD price?
If one can ‘afford’ a $3.8 mill crapshack, then surely, they can also ‘afford’ 38K yearly tax bill. No deferrals.

#59 Scumop on 06.19.16 at 4:27 pm

Brexit?

Many a brit (and many a european) do not like being in the EU for much less exciting reasons than the media would have you believe. Like having no say in the creation of thousands of bureaucrat-made laws that do not take into consideration local, or even regional, conditions or culture.

A vote to stay in the EU is understood to be the last thing they will ever be able to vote on.

But that does not make headlines. Does not get media interest. Only the ugly, the dramatic, the quotes from famous people. This creates a big echo chamber of opinion masquerading as accepted wisdom.

The economic outcome? How are you going to tease out the info to sort it out inside a giant echo chamber which amplifies mostly the negative? Many a claim is made and repeated again and again, on little to no evidence.

Of course, there is more than one echo chamber.

I’ll be making popcorn and watching the show.

#60 waiting on the westcoast on 06.19.16 at 4:40 pm

Well it looks like I will be leaving in time to miss the carnage… maybe back in year to start to look for pieces to pick up.

My only worry is that Brazil will start a war with Uruguay to distract the sheeple from the economic morose there.

In the meantime here is my monthly update for our premium service business:

My businesses were up between 10 and 44% YoY in May except for NY which fell by 10% (this could be a one off or a trend to keep an eye on). Best growth was on the west coast of US. I have 3 businesses in NE and on the westcoast of US.

Here are the averages for our system:

AUS +25%

CAN +2% (definitely slowing from typically robust 20%+ growth rates for the past 3-4 years)
– BC +6%
– Prairies -12% (still dropping hard)
– ON and East +5%

US +26% (still steamrolling along)
– West +40%
– Central +28%
– SE +11%
– NE +7%

What is worrisome in the US is the drop off of our service businesses in the NE. That is exactly what happened on 2007. Businesses slowed there first even as we had massive gains on the wescoast. The transition in the NE was slower while on the westcoast it changed from +20% growth to – 20% growth in 2 quarters.

Anyway – Canada is already on the downswing (even in Van and TO). The US may be slowing but let’s hope nothing like the GFC.

#61 For those about to flop... on 06.19.16 at 5:21 pm

#53 Andrew Woburn on 06.19.16 at 3:21 pm
#12 For those about to flop… on 06.19.16 at 12:24 pm
Some people on the blog aren’t into sport….that’s o.k.

But to deny the massive amounts of money ,investment and globalization of sport is just ridiculous.
===================

The globalization of sport provides a clear illustration of how extreme income inequality can develop even between members of the same team. Players who have global name recognition can command millions but their almost as talented teammates can only expect a small fraction of the pie. The same inexorable logic applies to corporations and investors who play in global markets and probably explains why the .001% are leaving the rest of us in the dust.

////////////////////////////////

Yeah Andrew, I know what you are talking about name recognition.

No one done it better in recent times than David Beckham.

When he signed for Real Madrid ,Ac Milan and PSG they all over paid his contract because they knew they were going to still make good money on shirts sales and help with their brand recognition.

Manchester United are looking at signing Zlatan Ibrahimovic, the dude is 35 in October but he will sell a tonne of shirts and will be one of the highest paid just because he has name and image recognition.

I think I made a good choice in giving you Austria for this tournament….steady as she goes.

Also in a side note one of our posters LP just notified me the other day that she is fighting cancer and I feel kind of helpless ,but every now and then I want to show her that we are here to support her in her time of need , so occasionally instead of my trademark M41BC which I will changing to 42 in a couple of days I will sign of with this…

#LPstrong

#62 Prairieboy43 on 06.19.16 at 5:29 pm

Seen the movie the Four Horsemen?

Hour and half of your time.

https://youtu.be/5fbvquHSPJU

Cheers
PB43

#63 Dan Duran on 06.19.16 at 5:34 pm

So funny, a whole article about the bumpkins who want to close the borders to dangerous brown people. Coming from that side of the political spectrum that wants to close the borders for those dangerous rich people. Seems like you’d be on the side of any policy that will cause the crash you so eagerly await.

#64 westcdn on 06.19.16 at 5:50 pm

I was reading comments from a few days back and saw my post where I stated some of the reset preferred shares I had purchased were yielding 11 -20% which is true until they reset – oh crap. That could be less than six months down the road and then the yields will fall by maybe 50%.

Still, good enough for me. I do like the option of choosing whether I want a fixed rate for 5 years or a variable rate based on 90 day T-bills both paying dividends quarterly. I am not an expert but I am no fool either. I will go with a mix of fixed and variable since I don’t know the future.

This is not a game and a place for the inexperienced. I was sipping on too many drinks that night but what the heck. I am retired, single and don’t have to answer to anyone except God and maybe a grey alien lizard overlord (possibly a Nictonite too though I think that is a play on the word nicotine).

As always, let the market teach me hard and expensive lessons. I will learn and fight but only when there is a purpose/reward. Experience and knowledge do matter but grow with the times. Never give up and think you are a lesser hu(wo)man being. The elites die too.

I am wandering – time to shut down. I do like the picture with your GT post tonight.

#65 wallflower. friends on 06.19.16 at 6:05 pm

Garth
You forgot to mention Canada’s new alliance partner Mexico
Already giving Canada foreign policy advice

Solution flood the us from the north

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/vicente-fox-donald-trump-canada-1.3640102

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/06/17/canada-says-it-
will-likely-end-entrance-visas-for-mexicans/

Of course trump will make Canada build 5000km wall and pay for it

#66 not 1st on 06.19.16 at 6:07 pm

Garth, who lives in the apartment attached to your store? Some moist wannabes from downtown TO?

The renovation was just finished. Three bedrooms, 2,500 feet, stone & granite with enough potlights to land a Cessna. Dogs welcome. So far a hipster-free zone. Interested? — Garth

#67 Unhinged Loon on 06.19.16 at 6:13 pm

DELETED & BANNED

#68 Nero on 06.19.16 at 6:16 pm

DELETED

#69 Bobs ur uncle on 06.19.16 at 6:17 pm

“Dude. Pass the paddle. And the bong.”

Looks like you’re finally coming around on the weed eh? Heh heh.

Agreed on the assessment tho – tune all that sh*t out. Might want to add stop looking at your portfolio for the next few weeks until it all blows over.

#70 Unhinged Loon on 06.19.16 at 6:20 pm

BANNED

#71 Fools Gold on 06.19.16 at 6:21 pm

With everything that’s happening in the world, what are your thoughts on the price of Gold, in the near future and long term. Gold is currently trading at just under $1300 US an ounce. Should Brexit be successful, will this cause Gold to sky-rocket in price?

No. — Garth

#72 BOOM! on 06.19.16 at 6:30 pm

ow. Mid-west heat wave here. Even the cows are beginning to warp. 92 F today with humidity almost to match. Central Air is a blessing!

BREXIT??? British polling is notoriously inaccurate, so don’t ‘bet’ on 40%. Could be 20 or 60… We will know, when it is done, and the votes tallied.

A YES vote on exiting the EU will cause some temporary dislocations, but in the long run means the citizens will be in control of their destiny -for better -or- worse, rather than the overpaid, non-elected bureaucrats in Brussels.

I am in favor of BREXIT. (for the record I am not in favor of the TPP, TISa etc.) Mainly because the ‘people’ here do not know what is contained therein. No rational person agrees to a law, or contract, they have not read especially the ‘fine print’… Some do, that’s how they get their rear-ends handed to them when things go wrong…

I see the Swiss have withdrawn their EU membership application. (That was probably wise).

As for this week, I’m in the garage knitting metal mail underwear for possible stock purchases late in the week.
Everybody just loves chaos and mayhem, it makes for value! Blood on Wall St. is actually a blood sport!

M64WI

#73 Mark on 06.19.16 at 6:34 pm

“Should Brexit be successful, will this cause Gold to sky-rocket in price?”

Its anyone’s guess, of course. But a potential outcome of the “Brexit” would be a greater bid for the USD$. Which in the short term, is usually negative for gold quoted in USD$.

But over the long term, a high USD$ isn’t sustainable with the way that trade balances are. So yeah, gold definitely belongs as a component of a balanced portfolio. But its no “get rich quick” scheme and the market is probably, to some extent, already incorporating the probability of a “Brexit” into current gold pricing.

#74 Mocha on 06.19.16 at 6:40 pm

I’m really disappointed with today’s post. ‘Nuff said.

#75 Love My Kia on 06.19.16 at 6:50 pm

What if Bernie wants to run as an independent? Donald wins for sure :-(

#76 Brazil ex-pat on 06.19.16 at 6:55 pm

#66 not 1st on 06.19.16 at 6:07 pm
Garth, who lives in the apartment attached to your store? Some moist wannabes from downtown TO?

The renovation was just finished. Three bedrooms, 2,500 feet, stone & granite with enough potlights to land a Cessna. Dogs welcome. So far a hipster-free zone. Interested? — Garth

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Wow cool. My wife would love your place. You should post some pics !!

#77 Randy on 06.19.16 at 7:01 pm

Even if Trump loses the election he will likely be able to build a multi-billion dollar media empire.

#78 Mr. Frugal on 06.19.16 at 7:05 pm

#74 Mocha on 06.19.16 at 6:40 pm
I’m really disappointed with today’s post. ‘Nuff said.

===================================

I’ll second that! Pretty shabby stuff.

#79 Trojan House on 06.19.16 at 7:07 pm

I think you’re wrong regarding Brexit. They will be fine if they leave – as they were in the past before joining. British sovereignty is at stake. Right now, they are being governed by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.

Whether the British people figure that out or not is hard to say.

#80 For those about to flop... on 06.19.16 at 7:08 pm

Brexit/ Euro 2016 update.

In the start of the final round of group games Lee’s Albania finally did him proud and showed there is no vampires in Romania by beating Toothless Measures team. 1-0

In the other game the host with the most France and Garth drew with Freedom First’s beige Switzerland.
Sharing the points in a 0-0 result.
This is only the second time Freedom First has had to share something.

Regarding Brexit, I just looked and it is still sliding to Stexit with Ladbrokes stating a 29/71 split.

I had the privilege of living in the U.K for a few years and I witnessed the importance of soccer to daily life.

I also witnessed the violence that is associated with the sport, from attending games where they do not let the supporters leave the stadium at the same time, to watching people fight at train stations during the week just because a stranger had a jersey on that you hate.

I stated a while back that this was not the time for a referendum, but that’s the way it is going down.

There are lots of opinions on why this was done,but you guys can make up your own minds…

M41BC

http://www.theweek.co.uk/73649/eu-referendum-will-englands-euro-2016-performance-affect-the-vote

#81 Casual Observer on 06.19.16 at 7:15 pm

…we’re obviously getting closer to direct federal government intervention.

Politicians say they want to make housing more affordable but don’t want to do anything that would cause prices to come down.

Without lower prices, the only way to improve affordability is to have cheaper monthly mortgage payments, lower property taxes, or some type of first-time homeowner grant/tax break.

If they go down that road, all it will do is increase demand while doing nothing about supply.

I think the best solution is one that has already been discussed on this blog and that is to do away with tax-free capital gains for principal residences above a certain threshold if a new residence isn’t purchased within one year.

The money generated could be used to increase the supply by investing it in affordable housing solutions such as co-ops, etc.

Some of that money could be used to effectively enforce the new rules, as well as existing rules against laundering money through real estate.

#82 Blobby on 06.19.16 at 7:34 pm

I don’t know too much about US politics, but I’m fascinated that you say there’s no way at all trump can get in?

Even if Bernie runs as independent, splitting the dem vote down middle? Trump still can’t win? How does that happen?

Because if it’s true, I suddenly feel safer on this planet.

#83 acdel on 06.19.16 at 7:34 pm

Garth, love you man, love everything blog that you have posted, like all of us that continue to read them we appreciate all the hard work that you put into them.

Respect the fact that whatever the Brits or American’s decide to vote is not based on economics but the underlining fact that most people have no faith left in the political system; we want our lives back not dictated to us. Most are opposed to supporting there ideological tax grabbing ways to their comfortable retirement. The pure bullshit that they are trying to sell us while making us poorer is despicable. This is the most educated, well informed generation since humans placed foot on this planet; the old ways just no longer work. There are some good politicians, CEO’s, that that have no chance in changing ideals, most are only in it for themselves.

I appreciate your efforts Garth, sorry for the bleak post but that is just how I feel, enjoy the summer at cabin.

#84 Chaddywack on 06.19.16 at 7:40 pm

If Trump wins his home state of New York he wins the election. That would give him enough assuming he wins all of Romney red states.

#85 AK on 06.19.16 at 7:46 pm

#71 Fools Gold on 06.19.16 at 6:21 pm

“Should Brexit be successful, will this cause Gold to sky-rocket in price?”
============================

Yes. $25,000.00 , according to this. LMFAO…

#86 Brexit, Trump, etc. on 06.19.16 at 7:54 pm

There would be less chance for Brexit, Trump if for example trade agreement were discussed in public, not in secrecy, ahead of time, seeking the consensus and approval of the public, instead of pushed down on the throat of the population after ratification.

Garth, I can’t remember you raising your voice against this, though you are not shy.

All this is done not by white supremacist nationalist and Trump.

In fact, Trump and Brexit was created by the dissatisfaction of the mainstream status quo political system – just like 1930+ or many other.

#87 ww1 on 06.19.16 at 7:54 pm

#78 Mr. Frugal on 06.19.16 at 7:05 pm
#74 Mocha on 06.19.16 at 6:40 pm
I’m really disappointed with today’s post. ‘Nuff said.

===================================

I’ll second that! Pretty shabby stuff.

———————————————————-

Did you know that Garth offers full refunds of everything you have paid to read this blog. Including a comprehensive refund of your portion of the advertising revenue for 3rd party stuff that the banner ads and click bait on this site generates.

Or you could just not read it in the first place?

#88 Van Isle Renter on 06.19.16 at 7:58 pm

Britain will survive a Brexit. It may be ugly, but they will. The larger issue is the EU open border policies towards immigration. Note that the issue is not legal immigration (even Trump is fine with that although the media seems to ignore it), but rather under the EU Britain loses ALL control of it’s immigration policy. Not good. In essence, the EU demands that Britain accept that ALL immigration is now legal, regardless of whether the immigrants have been vetted or not and that Britain must pay to support them as well.

It would be not much different than having a Housing Czar in Ottawa deciding that to help with the housing crisis in Vancouver, your house in Point Grey can actually hold two or three families. The new Housing Czar then orders you to build a suite or two, pay for them, and give the families subsidized rent. And if you don’t do it willingly, they’ll force you to.

Any region that cannot control it’s borders is not a country. It is that simple, and not an issue of race, merely the right of citizens to self-determination.

#89 Metaxa on 06.19.16 at 8:10 pm

Garth need to put all the deleted and banned posts behind a paywall.

It would be a good secondary source of monthly income for him and we could spend our entertainment dollars on something other than Ashley Madison.

#90 Electoral College on 06.19.16 at 8:15 pm

… nor the Electoral College votes from the states that matter. — Garth

This may prevent Trump to win this time – but it also exposing the way the system is rigged to favor pre-selected candidates by an elite, over casting the votes by the public.

Checks and balances. Just like me on this blog. — Garth

#91 nonplused on 06.19.16 at 8:20 pm

I think the Brexit vote will be a non-event. Canada isn’t in the EU and we still have plenty of Volkswagens to go around.

The EU is kind of a figmentary imagination anyway. It’s a level of bureaucracy layered over a bunch of other bureaucracies. It’s a bunch of rules layered over a bunch of other rules. If it ceased to exist tomorrow nobody would notice.

After they dissolve the EU, it could open up discussions as to why we still need NATO as well. What does it do, really? Who does it defend, and against whom? If Canada dropped out of NATO, would the Ruskies invade? Why? Do they want to bail out our pension system? Try and govern Quebec? Steal our snowmobiles? Provide Bombardier with more subsidies? Put out our forest fires before they shut in our largest national export? If you ask me they can go ahead and try because the nitwits we have in Ottawa right now haven’t got a chance of figuring this stuff out. NATO is also just a conceptualized framework that serves no real purpose. If a major war does break out in the middle east that involves both the US and Russia (and perhaps Israel) it will fold under the weight of it’s own various and competing interests faster than a house of cards in an earthquake. Canada, for one, will be fairly unlike to send the few airplanes we have to defend Turkey from the Russian S400’s in Syria and all along the Turkish border. And we don’t have many “boots” to “put on the ground” in front of the Syrian machine guns. What must be remembered is although strained and exhausted, the Syrian army at this point is battle hardened. We’ll be sending 1000 (or maybe 10,000, but not more) pinkies straight out of high school into the targets of a well experienced and determined foe, with no air support this time.

The Donald, on the other hand does exist and he has the potential to create great turbulence. So far the democrats can’t come up with anyone to run against him other than a potential criminal who is under investigation. He could end up with a potential landslide of the popular vote, which would expose the electoral college for what it is and potentially cause a disruption in the space-time continuum perceptions of US democracy. Not that it’s been much more than a ritual that signifies nothing for a long time now, but the public could become aware that they have been lied to for years. If the American public has any balls left, they’ll make what’s going on in France look like a walk in the park.

#92 Randy on 06.19.16 at 8:25 pm

Markets are manipulated and rigged and so is voting. The Media are lying, statist douchebags. You can’t win. Your rights are evaporating and Millennials are already on side with this. The Bubbles will continue to grow until Hillary Clinton is elected, then in 2017 the big weapons will be rolled out by the Fed.

You guys are scaring me. So much opinion. So little fact. — Garth

#93 700 million or so people on 06.19.16 at 8:30 pm

Leaving will cost a ton of jobs, put Britain on a path to recession, whack financial markets and imperil, oh, 700 million or so people.

==

This is yet to be seen. At this point it’ fear mongering.

You should also have to ask the question, why the public support for such suicidal step?

The same public gave the idea of EU the chance and support – what happened?

You are claiming it’s just the “right-wingers and nationalists, who argue open EU borders let too many of those dangerous brown people in.”

This sounds like a Trump-level argument.

#94 acdel on 06.19.16 at 8:38 pm

You guys are scaring me. So much opinion. So little fact. — Garth

Sorry Garth, you are not getting it!! Let us see what the voters decide!! Democracy in action or so! Let the chips fall where they may and deal with it…

Most people have trouble organizing their sock drawers. You want them to run the country, the legislature, judiciary and the monetary system? Pure democracy would become the tyranny of the majority, and deliver social breakdown. — Garth

#95 Metaxa on 06.19.16 at 8:45 pm

This sounds like a Trump-level argument.

Snort.

#96 AB Boxster on 06.19.16 at 8:46 pm

A little overboard on your blog post today Garth.

Firstly, I suspect if you were to ask the Brits is if they are for freer trade with all European nations, they would overwhelmingly agree.

But the EU is not just about trade and economics.
There is a whole body of social, political and societal overtones to being part of the EU.

You rag on those concerned in Britain with uncontrolled immigration. Worried about dangerous ‘brown people’as you say. Hey, nothing like adding a little color to emphasize your point.

So, how much immigration is too much, or is there never too much?
Should all economic migrants be welcomed to Britain no matter what the number?
Since being a member of the EU effectively means you lose control of immigration, are you saying that this is a valid societal or social trade-off for benefiting from this economic union?

Does the fact that the EU has an enhanced economic union mean the member states must subjugate their
internal social, legal and societal policies to an un-elected EU body as a result?

Well, I guess just asking the question is racist in itself, right?

Funny, I don’t recall you arguing for uncontrolled economic immigration to Canada as a federal politician?

Do you think that Canada should join the EU as well and relinquish its ability to control its borders and the social program’s that it currently manages?

Your argument is striking similar to that of the right honorable Ms Wynne, and much of the regressive
left in Canada, that any concerns about importing 30,000 Syrian refugees in 2 months, whether they
be economic or logistical, can only be attributed to our ‘racist and xenophobic’ base emotions.

Or like the Rachel Notley government, that whenever they get a question that they do not like regarding
their regressive social or climate program (like how much it will cost, and how will it actually help with climate change) just quash the question as being asked by obvious ‘climate change deniers’ and ‘right wing bible thumpers’, or totally misogynistic for asking ‘unacceptable’ questions to a woman member of legislature.

And while we can agree that Trump is very likely a sexist, nutcase, yet he taps into the experience and
frustration of many in the US.
All either racists, all xenophobes, all anti-immigrants, right? Hardly.

The experiment of mass immigration, and globalization, is certainly helping those from or in impoverished countries but it has not done a whole lot for the citizens in the so called first world nations, who have seen their
jobs go overseas en masse, their wages fall or remain stagnant, and their real estate values rise about their own level of affordability.

So if you truly believe that the loss of control of these pretty key areas (immigration, social benefits, etc) is an acceptable loss of control for Britain, and any other member EU states, in order to have a stronger economic union, then say so.

At least then a reasonable debate can be had.

Calling those who support Brexit as right wing nut jobs, or describing the calamitous events that will happen if they leave really just shows the shallowness of the argument to actually stay.

#97 BG on 06.19.16 at 8:49 pm

#49 Andrew Woburn on 06.19.16 at 2:50 pm
#171 BG on 06.19.16 at 1:33 am

Basically Ethereum is the platform, The DAO is an application. . . The weakness allowing the attack is in The DAO. The platform has not been compromised.
==================

Thanks. I do get that there is a difference just like Mt. Gox isn’t the blockchain, but if your cybercoins can still just disappear, how does a solid platform help? This isn’t meant as a sarcastic question, I’m really trying to get my head around this because the distributed ledger concept is potentially huge.

*********************************************

Please bear with me if I give too few or too many details:

Ethereum is more than bitcoin, it is a computer on a blockchain.

You can send source code on the Ethereum blockchain.
Once there it becomes a “Smart contract”: an entity with both source code and wallet with which anybody can interact as per the rules defined in its source code.

The entity has an address on the blockchain, just like your personal wallet has one.
And because it lives on the blockchain, it is supposed to be unstoppable, like a Bitcoin transaction is unstoppable (that’s a selling point for Ethereum).

The DAO is a Smart Contract. It source code had a subtle dangerous behavior unintended by the dev (a glitch basically).
Ethereum, worked well at making the whole application unstoppable, including the glitch.

As a consequence, there is now a wallet online with 250 million USD and the code that manages it has an unstoppable weakness that lets the tokens be leaked to the person clever enough to spot the weakness.
Needless to say someone has used the weakness and stolen 30% (to date, and it can happen again at any time).
However, Smart Contract of The DAO has a clause that freezes his loot on an address for 27 days.

This raises many questions in the community, the main one being:
-Should an extreme measure to overrule the smart contract be taken to move back the funds from the hacker to the investors?
Doing so is possible if 51% miners agree, and it would ONLY affect this smart contract.
But if you overrule the Smart Contract, you set break the promise of Ethereum running unstoppable Smart Contracts…

Personally I think they should overrule, because the fact that this could happen so easily makes me think the platform as a whole needs to mature and lose that “razor int he hands of a baby” aspect.
There is also the fact that 15% of the Ethereum currency are invested in The DAO.

#98 acdel on 06.19.16 at 8:50 pm

#89 Metaxa
Garth need to put all the deleted and banned posts behind a paywall.

It would be a good secondary source of monthly income for him and we could spend our entertainment dollars on something other than Ashley Madison.

——————————————————-

HUH, Why? Are you too anal to read other’s views?? Who made you the supreme?? Oh right, you did! Sorry!

#99 acdel on 06.19.16 at 8:55 pm

Most people have trouble organizing their sock drawers. You want them to run the country, the legislature, judiciary and the monetary system? Pure democracy would become the tyranny of the majority, and deliver social breakdown. — Garth

———————————————

Sorry Garth, this is where we agree to disagree; most people do know how to organize their stock drawers, it is always the less informed that make the highlights.
This is why I love your blog; you educate but do not forget all the educated that read your blog, thanks again.

#100 Smoking Man on 06.19.16 at 8:56 pm

#89 Metaxa on 06.19.16 at 8:10 pm
Garth need to put all the deleted and banned posts behind a paywall.

It would be a good secondary source of monthly income for him and we could spend our entertainment dollars on something other than Ashley Madison.
….
Great ideal. .
Now that would be funny. I would pay huge to remember what I said on the last drunk up.

#101 Sebee on 06.19.16 at 9:02 pm

Donald picks Sanders as VP and wins.

#102 advertising revenue on 06.19.16 at 9:03 pm

#87 ww1

Did you know that Garth offers full refunds of everything you have paid to read this blog. Including a comprehensive refund of your portion of the advertising revenue for 3rd party stuff that the banner ads and click bait on this site generates.

The advertising value of Garth’s blog works on the same principle as Trump’s celebrity publicity value. Exceeding any banner revenue.

#103 Chigs in Markham on 06.19.16 at 9:11 pm

***WAKE UP CALL***
Just got my MPAC home price assessment though the mail. Good news is own a home that has appreciated from 729k in 2012 to 1030k as of this year. Taxes have been 6k per year. Over next 4 years, assessment will increase straight line so that 2020 assessment will be based on 1030k price. So, 4 years from now, taxes will be 8.4k or an extra 180$ per month! Rate will rise by $45 per month each year for 4 years to get to the 180. Not a huge amount but not small either! For many, this cash flow hit will take them over the edge. Higher taxes plus potential mortgage bump up if rates move up in a few years is a dangerous cocktail for house prices!!

#104 The Real Kip on 06.19.16 at 9:12 pm

“A Trump win is impossible. Learn something of US politics. — Garth”

Many people said Trump would never win the nomination and he did. There are enough disconnected and disenfranchised voters in the US that are fed up with the status quo to push him into The White House. Trump can easily win.

No he cannot easily win because, as in Canada, the popular vote does not put a president into office. Learn something of US politics. — Garth

#105 Small c ideology vs Trump on 06.19.16 at 9:16 pm

Today’s blog makes it crystal clear how little is the difference between small c conservative ideology that Garth represents and Trump’s.

They are both over simplified, populist – just pushing different agenda.

No agenda here. I’m simply explaining to delusional investors why what they read in the headlines will likely not come to pass. Did you not know it’s all about the money? — Garth

#106 Rational Optimist on 06.19.16 at 9:16 pm

“Trudeau says cash from overseas ‘obviously’ plays a role in Vancouver housing crisis”: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/trudeau-cbc-vancouver-housing-1.3639295

The best bit from that article is the quote from Pierre’s kid that “This reminds me of the challenges around the Hong Kong handover, where we saw in Yaletown all these new buildings come up after Expo 86, and then nobody was living in them because they were all bought as investments and insurance around the handover.”

Someone should tell the guy’s speech writers that he was 15 years old in ’86.

#107 salonist on 06.19.16 at 9:18 pm

Checks and balances. Just like me on this blog. — Garth your cheque book, right?

#108 Doug in London on 06.19.16 at 9:25 pm

Why hate volatility? If, and when volatility occurs you can:

1) Panic and sell investments if they drop in value, at the exact time when you should be on a frantic buying binge.

2) Follow Garth’s advice, unplug and do NOTHING.

3) If stock markets do take a big drop go on a Boxing Day style frantic buying binge. Remember what Warren Buffet said, namely that you should never let a crisis go to waste.

As for myself, if markets don’t drop significantly I’ll take option 2. If they do take a significant drop I’ll take option 3. That’s not so hard, is it?

#109 Jaymo on 06.19.16 at 9:26 pm

BREXIT: right wing racism? immigration? The UKIP? Bollocks. Check out BREXIT, The Movie. Google it or find it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0. It’s all about democracy and the democratic process and the right to govern oneself. I doubt Canadians would ever put up with a racket such as that of the EU.

#110 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 06.19.16 at 9:27 pm

Trump has a chance because Sanders has a chance. Sanders has a chance because the possibility of the FBI indicting Clinton is greater than zero.

Trump and Sanders have popularity not because of what they say, but because of what they represent; the antithesis of the status quo which has kept wages stagnant in real terms for decades while the price of important expenditures rises inexorably (health care and education).

Choosing to stay in Europe to avoid a recession is silly as recessions are inevitable, and all the Armageddon talk of Brexit is hyperbole. The UK was fine without the EU for centuries and will continue to be.

The bigger question is whether the EU is anti-democratic, governing nation states by dictate from bureaucrats in Brussels.

On the other hand, the EU is likely not fine without the UK, as it resembles a sinking ship.

#111 Smoking Man on 06.19.16 at 9:30 pm

So the lefty San Francisco people want to ban Blue Angles fly overs.

http://www.breitbart.com/california/2016/06/19/san-francisco-set-ban-navy-blue-angels-flyovers-isis-attack/

Liberalism is disease of the mind.

We just changed our Anthom in Canada. We removed “all our sons command”

That line was referencing out ww1 vets that gave up there lives and fought in the trenches.

So we have a more inclusive one now. So no one’s feelings get hurt.

The next titanic it’s going to be every person for themselves. Screw the notion of woman and children first.

No point in being hero, taken one for team if your going to be disrespected like that down road by mind fkd entitled liberals.

#112 Ronaldo on 06.19.16 at 9:31 pm

#85 AK on 06.19.16 at 7:46 pm

#71 Fools Gold on 06.19.16 at 6:21 pm

“Should Brexit be successful, will this cause Gold to sky-rocket in price?”
============================

Yes. $25,000.00 , according to this. LMFAO…
————————————————————–
Who would have thought that an old beater house in Vancouver in 1970 would rise in value from $25,000 to $2,500,000? Now that is something to laugh about.

Houses have utility and social value. Gold does not. — Garth

#113 advertising revenue on 06.19.16 at 9:31 pm

Most people have trouble organizing their sock drawers. You want them to run the country, the legislature, judiciary and the monetary system? Pure democracy would become the tyranny of the majority, and deliver social breakdown. — Garth

This sounds so familiar. From our respected former Communist party leaders a few decades back. They would be thrilled to learn that they were right all along.
Maybe they would want the power back.

#114 The Real Kip on 06.19.16 at 9:33 pm

“No he cannot easily win because, as in Canada, the popular vote does not put a president into office. Learn something of US politics. — Garth”

Wow, you are a really smart guy, so smart you think everyone else is stupid. I understand the US electoral system. Your arrogance is showing itself tonight.

You’re not stupid. Only what you write. — Garth

#115 Ontheledge on 06.19.16 at 9:39 pm

#48 – Chris in Nanaimo

If you didn’t think ‘gay’ was a race, we’d be proud of you, too. — Garth’

Nice diversion Garth, I said no such thing. Simply pointing out that in our politically correct bizarro world Whites are not allowed to be ‘proud’….we’re labelled either Supremacists or Nationalists….

***********

Hi Chris – I think you miss the point. But as a white dude from Nanaimo, you’re excused. The concept of “Pride” based on gender, sexuality, race, religion is driven by minorities and sub minorities that have been historically discriminated against, bullied, and/or disenfranchised based on historical accepted societal norms. As a society, we should be grateful that we are rapidly evolving in a direction of acceptance of individual differences and in fact celebrating these differences. Not everyone is a balance portfolio type! The faster we get to being a society where we celebrate difference the better off we will be…the whole point of and “pride” movement is to advance the spirit of those of us that didn’t quite fit in but did and will do more than their part to contribute positively to our collective social fabric, without judgement or discrimination.

Chris, you are free to wave whatever flag you want to to express yourself and cheer for your white pride cause. But as a white fella in Nanaimo with a balance portfolio, who probably shops in anchor malls and drives a Kia, I bet you’ve never really been motivated to stand up as a minority, have ya?

#116 Smoking Man on 06.19.16 at 9:44 pm

No he cannot easily win because, as in Canada, the popular vote does not put a president into office. Learn something of US politics. — Garth
…..

Good point, but what you don’t know is what the Trump campaign will do next. And I’m not about to spill the beans.

He’s promised me a trailer in Arizona and us legal status if he wins.

And he will. He’s got a Nictonite sending signals to the UCC. I can’t posably see him lose with what I know is coming.

Plus

Would hell wants to retire in this shit climate.

#117 Small c ideology vs Trump on 06.19.16 at 9:46 pm

#105 Small c ideology vs Trump on 06.19.16 at 9:16 pm

Today’s blog makes it crystal clear how little is the difference between small c conservative ideology that Garth represents and Trump’s.

They are both over simplified, populist – just pushing different agenda.

No agenda here. I’m simply explaining to delusional investors why what they read in the headlines will likely not come to pass. Did you not know it’s all about the money? — Garth

And of course, “all about the money” is an agenda itself :)

Which reminds me the news that Bill Gates has invested in the marijuana industry.

Monsanto – vaccines – marijuana.

The circle is full now in the name of “it’s all about the money”.

#118 Sheane Wallace on 06.19.16 at 9:53 pm

T2 is a drama teacher and has no clue on what economy is and how it works.

1. If foreign money was factor in Canada real estate, then disband CMHC.

2. Fire that idiot at BOC, it is an insult to any intelligence to hear to the crap he spews. Let markets determine interest rates.

3. Transfer all the mortgage risk back to the banks. They are the most prudent banks in the world after all

4. Institute retroactively windfall capital tax on house prices appreciation.

Point of no return has passed in 2009, the fallout ill be horrific and we would be the first to fall.

In the mean time daddy is moving south, along with all the assets. It would be fun watching the fireworks from outside.

#119 Yuus bin Haad on 06.19.16 at 9:56 pm

It’s all noise, of course. You’re all talking about things over which few of us have any control or influence. Alls I can do is monitor the ebb and flow and manage my affairs accordingly. Beats wasting energy on pointless debate.

#120 acdel on 06.19.16 at 9:57 pm

#116 Smoking Man
Good point, but what you don’t know is what the Trump campaign will do next. And I’m not about to spill the beans.

He’s promised me a trailer in Arizona and us legal status if he wins.

And he will. He’s got a Nictonite sending signals to the UCC. I can’t posably see him lose with what I know is coming.

Plus

Would hell wants to retire in this shit climat

—————————————————–

No kidding, June 18 and we had frost around our area’ what the???

I will leave American politics to the American’s but it sure interesting on how Trump is destabilizing the whole system with his views on this side of the border, let the chips fall where they may..

#121 Smoking Man on 06.19.16 at 9:58 pm

Hi Chris – I think you miss the point. But as a white dude from Nanaimo, you’re excused. The concept of “Pride” based on gender, sexuality, race, religion is driven by minorities and sub minorities that have been historically discriminated against, bullied, and/or disenfranchised based on historical accepted societal norms. As a society, we should be grateful that we are rapidly evolving in a direction of acceptance of individual differences and in fact celebrating these differences.
…..

Yes just like all the lefties doing a camp fire happy dance with new ban Smoking Man script. I love it.

See how they think. They say things with rose colour words only to be hit with the stench of a turd when these words hit your nose.

#122 Mark M. on 06.19.16 at 9:59 pm

“Meanwhile the American economy’s been in a cooling phase, with lower job creation numbers that made the Fed end its flirtation with a June rate hike.” – Garth

Ah the old “cooling phase” right Garth? Often happens after trillions of dollars and three rounds of QE coupled with 0% interest rates for 8 years. Nothing to see here, four rate hikes on tap for 2016 and the other one from 2015 still to come.

The US is BOOOOMING!

Actually doing fine – compared to us. 14,000,000 new jobs created since 2008. — Garth

#123 OffShoreObserver on 06.19.16 at 10:03 pm

Imagine the Canadian Senate in Brussels:

https://www.brexitthemovie.com/

#124 NoName on 06.19.16 at 10:03 pm

#80 For those about to flop… on 06.19.16 at 7:08 pm

I work with a gentleman from romania, an interesting day tomorrow will be…

Did you know that 6 of albania’s players are born in switzerland, and 3 or 4 on switzerland team are albanians. funny those two teams are.

#125 will on 06.19.16 at 10:04 pm

Thank you for this Garth. Looking forward to the volatility. Got cash to invest in the tfsa.

#126 Ret on 06.19.16 at 10:09 pm

#103 MPAC (Ontario)
Check on-line to see what your neighbours’ assessments were. Municipalities often have on-line inquiry sites for you to check. If not, do the MPAC inquiry.

Many houses in McMaster’s student ghetto are still on MPAC as having unfinished basements and only one bathroom. Yeah, maybe in 1962.

This year my asessment went up $18,000 for no apparent reason. Eight of my nearest neighbours went up an average of only $7000 and the yet a neighbour of a ninth house, smack dab in the middle of all of the houses, didn’t go up at all.

The house without any increase in assessed value will see their Hamilton property taxes drop for this year as they did last year. I thought that Hamilton had a red hot real estate market. Two years of 0% assessment increase for the ninth house???

With provincial property assessments, never blindly accept their numbers without doing you due diligence.

#127 Sheane Wallace on 06.19.16 at 10:10 pm

DELETED

#128 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.19.16 at 10:13 pm

Houses have utility and social value. Gold does not. — Garth

bingo

gold is a get poor slow scheme

like cash

#129 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.19.16 at 10:14 pm

Actually doing fine – compared to us. 14,000,000 new jobs created since 2008. — Garth

BOOM

sorry kanada

#130 will on 06.19.16 at 10:17 pm

#41 economictsunami

No wonder he wears baseball hats when it’s windy. His hair would wave like a yellow, nicotine stained flag.

Hey Donald, even from beyond the grave, Rene Levesque is thinking

Hahahahaha!

#131 For those about to flop... on 06.19.16 at 10:19 pm

#124 NoName on 06.19.16 at 10:03 pm
#80 For those about to flop… on 06.19.16 at 7:08 pm

I work with a gentleman from romania, an interesting day tomorrow will be…

Did you know that 6 of albania’s players are born in switzerland, and 3 or 4 on switzerland team are albanians. funny those two teams are.

///////////////////////////////////

Hey NoName , I wasn’t going to comment as things on the blog are getting too serious.

This is what happens when guys spend all their extra time and money on their kids and then get a pair of $1.99 socks and a half eaten cake for Fathers Day.

Thankyou for your factoid about those teams.
I did not know that ,but the intermingling especially in Europe soccer has been happening for a long time.

Poland and Germany don’t get on but that hasn’t stopped them switching players.

There is even a Brazlian playing for Spain.

I guess the girls weren’t hot enough for him…

M41BC

#132 Ontheledge on 06.19.16 at 10:23 pm

With everything that’s happening in the world, what are your thoughts on the price of Gold, in the near future and long term. Gold is currently trading at just under $1300 US an ounce. Should Brexit be successful, will this cause Gold to sky-rocket in price?

No. — Garth

***********
You should hold a 10% position in Gold across all your portfolio’s. This is prudent and contrarian. Gold is historically cheap to an order of magnitude that is difficult to measure based on the currency debasement that has taken place over the past 20 years. Once again Garth projects his confidence and certainty of the future with little to back it up. The gold market is very thin and the door is narrow. When the fools rush in they won’t all fit thru that door at once. The silver market is much more compelling on the mining side. My recommendation would be long silver miners and gold bullion ETFs/Certs. Gold miners under performed the hard stuff on the last run. We’ve made a cyclical bottom in all PMs and the big cyclical “C” wave is just beginning and it appears to be a stealth market which is the way all major bull runs originate. Within 18 months gold will likely retest its old highs and silver will be north of $30/oz…

You guys never quit. And gold is still stealing the wealth of the naive and gullible. — Garth

#133 Smoking Man on 06.19.16 at 10:36 pm

The Wizard of earth. And the. 001%

The Goal, a one world government. The buy in narative from unsuspecting idiot teachers mind fking the young. Climate change.

The result if successful.

Think of only one airline. One auto insurance company. A population without weapons.

And they call me the loon on here.

I’m with the resistance….. I know humanity and we are all evil little pricks. Non of you should ever have that much power.

You’re not evolved enough yet to handle it

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#134 BOOM! on 06.19.16 at 10:37 pm

Garth,

Did you ‘lend’ that bong to some of the dogs tonight, or have they just been into too many adult beverages?

Posts seem far more acidic than normal.

On the other hand, I may be just too sensitive. On the other hand, she had warts.

#135 will on 06.19.16 at 10:43 pm

#64cdn

Heartily agree. Nothing like getting your own experience first Hand and learning from it. Of course most financial advisors would not want you to do so. Just don’t commit too much dollars to it. Keep a record of what you did and what your expectations were at the time and then you can debrief yourself when the results are in.

#136 Andrew Woburn on 06.19.16 at 10:47 pm

#97 BG on 06.19.16 at 8:49 pm

Please bear with me if I give too few or too many details:
====================

That was great. Thank you.

#137 A&A on 06.19.16 at 10:54 pm

Dear Garth,

We sold our house and have signed a rental agreement for a smaller home beside work and our child’s school. We are investigating what to do with the $560,000 we will be receiving in about a month’s time. We have no outstanding debts and have paid for our wills, cremations, child’s RESP, insurances and pension plan already. Our daughter will be going to university in three years, so we will want to be able to use some of it for her and to relocate ourselves to Collingwood.

Yours sincerely.

#138 will on 06.19.16 at 10:59 pm

#91 nonplused

“it could open up discussions as to why we still need NATO as well. What does it do, really? Who does it defend, and against whom?”

I am with you on this bro.

#139 Smoking Man on 06.19.16 at 10:59 pm

The UCC explained for non dyslexics.

https://youtu.be/4aF2J6ZJsdw

The question,

Is a thought or action a result of independant thought. Or is thought and action a reaction to electrons in atomic orbits creating photons.. That create your reality.

Only a drunken Nictonite knows for sure.

Dr Smokey.. Good night.

#140 Long Branch Apprentice on 06.19.16 at 11:00 pm

LeBron and Company brings it home to Cleveland!

A city that’s been shit on by everyone for a long time finally has a championship.

Toronto, if the Jays don’t win this year, I fear this will be our future. I’ve been to Cleveland, Dayton, Akron, and this are tough places. Rust belt, chemical plants and sheer economic hopelessness.

It’s going to be a wild week in the markets, like Garth-o said. Exchange Stabilization Fund will be working overtime…

I’ve said too much.

#141 will on 06.19.16 at 11:08 pm

Most people have trouble organizing their sock drawers. You want them to run the country, the legislature, judiciary and the monetary system? Pure democracy would become the tyranny of the majority, and deliver social breakdown. — Garth

Holy shit Garth. That’s quite a mouthful. I just copied and pasted that into my notes. Gonna hafta reflect on that.

Love, will.

#142 Ontheledge on 06.19.16 at 11:15 pm

Hi Chris – I think you miss the point. But as a white dude from Nanaimo, you’re excused. The concept of “Pride” based on gender, sexuality, race, religion is driven by minorities and sub minorities that have been historically discriminated against, bullied, and/or disenfranchised based on historical accepted societal norms. As a society, we should be grateful that we are rapidly evolving in a direction of acceptance of individual differences and in fact celebrating these differences.
…..

Yes just like all the lefties doing a camp fire happy dance with new ban Smoking Man script. I love it.

See how they think. They say things with rose colour words only to be hit with the stench of a turd when these words hit your nose.

——–

Another fearful white dude hiding beneath his Under Armour.

#143 MF on 06.19.16 at 11:19 pm

The British would be wise to leave the EU. The EU is a failure on all levels and, as ROCK BEATS PAPER said above, is a sinking ship. How many times do we have to hear about ECB economic “stimulus”? It’s a joke. German bond yields are negative. Who on earth would buy a negative yielding bond? Negative bonds indicate extreme fear/economic distress. All the negative press is nothing but fear mongering by the globalist unelected bureaucrats who are the only ones benefiting from the whole thing. From what I have seen, every website has a different Brexit “poll” that it cites and to be honest, most polls I’ve come across cite the leave group in the lead.

On top of all this, the migrant crisis rocked the social foundation of the EU. If not Brexit, the it will be Grexit/Pexit/Iexit etc. The bloc is a social and economic failure.

MF

#144 Surrey central on 06.19.16 at 11:21 pm

Last skytrain stop in surrey @king george: 4 nee highrises and 2 under construction, right accross the street is the new head office of Coast Capital credit union. Coincidence? All the commercial space in the area is empty with big “for lease” signs. Build it and they will come i guess.
I sense that Garth is starting to like Justin at least for talking the bubble down… Might be @$$ covering, all the smart ones are exiting, the chief of CMHC is renting ffs…

#145 DON on 06.19.16 at 11:22 pm

#15 Sait Herb on 06.19.16 at 12:32 pm

With Trudeau on board with the bubble talk and making sure to stabilize the housing market, it means he is going to intervene to hold prices high and protect the old peoples retirement.
If he does something and market crashes, lots of people screwed.
If he does something to hold prices at this crazy high level, just as many people screwed, because they are priced out and need to move to small remote town to afford there own home, or try to rent.
I think prices are going to go even higher with word that the T2 is going to use his power to keep the prices up. This will give people confidience to jump in the market without the fear of a crash.
Why would anyone sell for less, when they can just wait for more.
This housing market is hopeless. It doesn’t make sense that prices keep going up, just because seller keep asking for more
*********************************

As mentioned by Garth and others many times before …greed and fear have taken over. Near peak greed seems to be the dominant trait – and all the recent bubble talk by the PM and the experts (‘we need to prick this thing to save your home equity’ – softening the blow). Now fear seems will be the dominant trait on the as sentiment changes…and the music stops.

Not happy about this! May just take Garth’s advice and check out and enjoy life. But then again it’s hard not to watch, like watching an athlete break an leg while running. YUCK!

#146 Ronaldo on 06.19.16 at 11:23 pm

Actually doing fine – compared to us. 14,000,000 new jobs created since 2008. — Garth

Good thing cause the population has increased by 18.17 million.

#147 MF on 06.19.16 at 11:24 pm

#138 will on 06.19.16 at 10:59 pm

Sure..Because without NATO Russia would roll into our arctic region.

MF

#148 RW_Z on 06.19.16 at 11:26 pm

“White supremacists everywhere would love it, with that horde of sinister refugees streaming in.”

In other news, brown supremacists wanted the British out of India, black supremacists have reservations about the colonization of Africa and Asian supremacists were miffed about the opium wars. Those racist bums.

#149 Joe2.0 on 06.19.16 at 11:30 pm

Regardless of what happens there’s still 10’s of millions of people out there with oodles of cash.

As the exchanges continue to deflate money will roll into other areas such as RE in certain desired locals.

The trick is to figure out which markets will chosen.
London, Paris, Vancouver, Hong Kong, New York….
It’s not a guess it a proven fact.

#150 will on 06.19.16 at 11:35 pm

#132 ontheledge

My mom told me I should own a small amount of gold. That was some 40 plus years ago. I have nothing but respect for my mother’s investing acumen though I don’t have any gold. But does anyone here know how to do it? Is it possible to purchase and take delivery of say a few ounces of gold? Not planning to do so but just wondering.

#151 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.19.16 at 11:40 pm

And gold is still stealing the wealth of the naive and gullible. — Garth

that’s the only benefit of gold

#152 it’s all about the money — Garth on 06.19.16 at 11:40 pm

Did you not know it’s all about the money? — Garth

Hi… My name is Mansa Musa.

Chances are, none of you have any clue who I am.

Chances are, none of you even know about my existence and the great things I have done in my life.

Well, all you peons, I was the man who had the most money ever… 400 billion dollar worth. I made it between 1280 – 1337.

It was a life all about the money… and you losers never even heard of me… What a shame, wasted life you have.

#153 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.19.16 at 11:41 pm

the only ppl who post positive comments about gold are poor wave slaves

truth hurts

#154 DON on 06.19.16 at 11:43 pm

#55 BS on 06.19.16 at 3:26 pm

…If we make it to next year the BC Liberals will be running for their 5th consecutive term. BC is over due for an NDP government which has a strong base in BC. An NDP government pretty much guarantees a housing bust.
************************

A housing bubble pretty much guarantees a housing bust. Watch for Politicians to put their properties up fore sale in the Lower Mainland.

#155 iffy immigrant on 06.19.16 at 11:49 pm

In order to normalize real estate markets in Canada you need charismatic politicians capable of leading sovereign politics and majority interested in such normalization. With absolute absence of such Canada is fated to have negative rates with all accompanying economic consequences.

#156 DON on 06.20.16 at 12:07 am

#113 advertising revenue on 06.19.16 at 9:31 pm

Most people have trouble organizing their sock drawers. You want them to run the country, the legislature, judiciary and the monetary system? Pure democracy would become the tyranny of the majority, and deliver social breakdown. — Garth

This sounds so familiar. From our respected former Communist party leaders a few decades back. They would be thrilled to learn that they were right all along.
Maybe they would want the power back

*******************************
What he is alluding to is the use of checks and balance to keep democracy working for the greater good.

#157 45north on 06.20.16 at 12:08 am

Prince Polo: Would it be out-of-bounds for the federal government to force municipalities to collect 1% property tax per annum

yes it would definitely be out-of-bounds. Municipal government is a provincial responsibility.

#158 Freedom First on 06.20.16 at 12:10 am

#111 Smoking Man

Good Post. You’re starting to catch on.

#159 Future Expatriate on 06.20.16 at 12:24 am

Didn’t take GB too long to completely forget the Nazis they fought in WWII, did it?

America had Operation Paperclip, and now, Der Trümpenführer. What’s GB’s excuse, Margaret Thatcher? Where are all the millions of Brits who carried signs equating Dumbya with Hitler now?

I really detest pendulum swings.

#160 b riding dirty on 06.20.16 at 12:25 am

I think you may be on the liquor tonight Garth not the weed.

Rebuttals sounds like whisky may be doing the talking.

Well shifty news to hear that by this time august we will be in the same spot financially as we were one year ago with all this volatility. So what happens now to this once before 7 return slowly turning to 6 now last 12 months coming end o July back to 0 for a 12 month return?

Play the cards or do you play the player? This is why I hate gambling

#161 Russ on 06.20.16 at 12:25 am

Ontheledge on 06.19.16 at 9:39 pm
#48 – Chris in Nanaimo
If you didn’t think ‘gay’ was a race, we’d be proud of you, too. — Garth’
Nice diversion Garth, I said no such thing. Simply pointing out that in our politically correct bizarro world Whites are not allowed to be ‘proud’….we’re labelled either Supremacists or Nationalists….

***********

Hi Chris – I think you miss the point. But as a white dude from Nanaimo, you’re excused.

Chris, you are free to wave whatever flag you want to to express yourself and cheer for your white pride cause. But as a white fella in Nanaimo with a balance portfolio, who probably shops in anchor malls and drives a Kia, I bet you’ve never really been motivated to stand up as a minority, have ya?
============================

Hey Ledge,
you are a little heavy on the judgement side, non?

Buddy Chris here might be expressing the anglo male frustration that he no longer can belong to a visible group that is not ostracized in society. Many easy targets are bikers, yachties, teachers and just regular drunks… mostly white males.
And you discredited him with his car choice? [email protected]!

http://dilbert.com/strip/1995-12-31

Be careful Chris, you don’t want to get any on you.

#162 Tiger on 06.20.16 at 12:28 am

20 May 2011
RBC Economist Robert Hogue – “We fear that the Vancouver market is becoming increasingly disconnected from local demand conditions and vulnerable to a painful correction.”

July 13, 2011
Canada’s housing market appears set for a moderate correction, with resale activity and average prices projected to decline by roughly 15.2% and 10.2%,respectively, over the next two years.

http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/td-economics-special-sg0711-housing.pdf

March 16, 2012 –
TD Warns Of Overvalued Canadian Housing
https://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/dp0912_mortgage_rules.pdf

#163 jay on 06.20.16 at 12:34 am

Money isn’t anything when you don’t have oxygen . http://russgeorge.net/2016/06/17/plankton-will-stop-making-oxygen-by-end-of-century/

#164 nonplused on 06.20.16 at 12:39 am

“Most people have trouble organizing their sock drawers. You want them to run the country, the legislature, judiciary and the monetary system? Pure democracy would become the tyranny of the majority, and deliver social breakdown. — Garth”

True, but a better system hasn’t been discovered. Anything non-democratic eventually deteriorates into somebody in power stealing all your socks. So while I will agree that “pure democracy” isn’t far from “pure chaos”, natural selection does it’s work and eventually the strongest rules survive, kind of like the old west. Give the power to a few individuals, however, and power corrupts, with absolute power corrupting absolutely.

This is why publicly traded companies are also supposed to have shareholder voting. Of course that system is totally corrupted now as well but in theory it was a good idea. It doesn’t work anymore though, because large blocks held by banks appoint CEO’s who make $15 million a year for directing M&A business back towards the bank instead of running the business prudently for a fair wage.

Should Steve Jobs or Bill Gates be so rich? Probably because most of their gains were through owning a company they invented and grew. But how much should Duh Suttles be paid to run EnCana into the ground? You could probably get twice the job for less than half the price. Remember this was the same guy who came on TV and said the gulf leak was 5000 bbls/day tops, and then filled the gulf with corexit.

#165 JSS on 06.20.16 at 12:43 am

Fathers Day is not as important as say Mothers Day.
My kids lives revolve around their mother, and her family. No one give a shit about daddy. And I’m a bit sad about this.

#166 nonplused on 06.20.16 at 12:50 am

#12 For those about to flop…

And don’t forget that “sports entertainment” is 100% rigged for ratings. Think WWE. “Sports entertainment” companies do not have to provide “fair” contests because they are “entertainment” companies. They don’t have to be any more fair than American Idol. It’s all about the ratings.

Here is an example, dear to many Canadians. No Canadian team has won the Stanley cup since expansion (this is over 20 years now). But yet they make up about a third of the league. This year not a single Canadian team made the playoffs! How is this possible with salary caps, revenue sharing, the draft, etc.????? Because the big money is in US TV rights and somebody like the Calgary Flames makes more money through revenue sharing if they bow out than they would if they won the cup and thus destroyed US TV ratings. It is not in the Canadians interest to win anymore, they are just their because the US teams need someone to play against. Kind of like Green Bay.

Mark my work a Canadian team will never win the Stanley Cup again even though we provide the league with better than 50% of their best players and will continue to dominate in international play.

#167 waiting on the westcoast on 06.20.16 at 12:52 am

#121 Smoking Man says… “Yes just like all the lefties doing a camp fire happy dance with new ban Smoking Man script. I love it. See how they think. They say things with rose colour words only to be hit with the stench of a turd when these words hit your nose.”

Smokey – you feeling all sensitive? It is ok, I keep up on the SM posts… always need to keep an ear to the pulse… ;-)

#168 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 06.20.16 at 1:02 am

Houses have utility and social value. Gold does not. — Garth

Sticking with fact, gold had social value for most of human history up to 1971. It served to keep bankers honest and prevented out of control fractional reserve banking madness. In essence, it kept debt from rising out of control. 50 years later and the debt loads of both personal and government have skyrocketed.

Now we are in a giant fiat experiment. Before , we were in a somewhat stable system that went back millennia.

#169 Dispatches from Under the Bridge on 06.20.16 at 1:10 am

I’d like to get out from under the bridge. 3 bedrooms and pot lights would be good. How much pot can they grow? I’ll give you $750 a month providing my paper routes don’t drop any more than they have. It’s getting hard to chase all of the competitors off that are vying for my sweet sweet spot beside the creek anyhow. When Justine makes the pot legal I’ll cut you in for a percentage. Deal? Call me.

#170 Vampire Studies GMST 454 on 06.20.16 at 1:11 am

48 chris – I’m a heterosexual white male. I’m a minority!

#171 Smartalox on 06.20.16 at 1:31 am

@Chris in Nanaimo:

The bible teaches that pride is a sin; since all the great leaders in the bible are depicted as white, it’s obvious that white pride is a sin, too.

QED

P.S.: All the other minorities, those that put up with whatever has been foisted on them, are exempt, because they deserved to be proud of their constant survival.

#172 Tiger on 06.20.16 at 1:41 am

Are You Listening, Canada: Australia Slaps Chinese Home Buyers With New Taxes

https://www.google.ca/search?q=Australia+Slaps+Chinese+Home+Buyers+With+New+Taxes&oq=Australia+Slaps+Chinese+Home+Buyers+With+New+Taxes&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#q=Australia+Slaps+Chinese+Home+Buyers+With+New+Taxes&tbs=qdr:d

#173 David on 06.20.16 at 1:54 am

The Leave advocates really did not think about how complicated and messy and destructive leaving would be in the long term. Furthermore Scotland which is pro EU might just have a successful referendum to leave to the UK and remain in the EU. It is hard to imagine much of a payoff from a Brexit.

http://inthesetimes.com/article/19215/brexit-european-union-consequences

#174 What are you vaping Garth? on 06.20.16 at 2:14 am

Fact check, Trump can win.

Electoral colleges have flip flopped back and forth since the time of Nixon (and before, yes, yes, pre-illegal immigrant times):

http://www.270towin.com/historical-presidential-elections/

Lest you forget Bush Jr. won in 2000 with 540,000 votes less than Gore.

If the US economy cools (per James Carville: “It’s the economy, stupid”) and there is another Radical Islam attack like Orlando and San Bernardino between now and November…

…God Emperor Trump will win.

Fear is a powerful thing whether you are Latino, African American, Asian or Caucasian.

#175 Metaxa on 06.20.16 at 2:15 am

# 98 acdel rites (to me):

HUH, Why? Are you too anal to read other’s views?? Who made you the supreme?? Oh right, you did! Sorry!

I’m not 100% certain but I think you may need to re-read my post. You seem to be responding to what you think is there, not to what actually is there.

#176 james on 06.20.16 at 3:30 am

Ugh, terrible political analysis.

“Leaving will cost a ton of jobs”

Not so. The EU has been one of the few economic blocks that has had dismal performance in the last 20 years. Switzerland and Iceland are not EU members, and are thriving.

“put Britain on a path to recession”

Scaremongering.

“imperil, oh, 700 million or so people”

Where are those 700 exactly? So far the EU is an economic disaster.

“But this has been largely turned into a referendum on immigration by the right-wingers and nationalists”

No, in fact it has not. Farage and others were talking mostly about the economy.

You believe in democracy and don’t believe that people should have input on immigration?

“who argue open EU borders let too many of those dangerous brown people in.”

I suggest you read the official report into Rotherham. Left wing MPs estimate a MILLION girls may have been systematically sexually abused.

#177 Bloke in the UK on 06.20.16 at 3:40 am

Well, well…….. first time in several years reading this motley blog that I have to disagree with you, Garth. UKIP isn’t the “Leave” leader; it’s one of the bigger players, sure, but not the leader.

Immigration is certainly an aspect of the need to leave the EU but there are other factors. The EU has already agreed with Turkey to pay €6 billion (or CAN$ 8.8 billion, if preferred) to Turkey, and to issue 1.5 million visas to Turkish nationals in return for Turkey taking back a million or so migrants – visa announcement withheld until after the UK referendum. The EU has shelved until after the referendum all talk of the EUTIN – the European Tax Identification Number which will be issued to every citizen of the EU, paving the way for payment of taxes direct to Brussels.

The VAT review which will oblige Brits to pay VAT on goods presently VAT-free (or zero-rated) has been put on hold until after June 23. The EU Army discussions are on hold until after June 23. All these things are being played down or not reported by the “Remain” supporting media – principally, the BBC.

Economic crises are always going to happen. The mere existence of politicians who fiddle with and adjust things guarantees it. The question for the UK is whether it’s more dangerous to be part of a euro collapse, or on the bleachers watching it happen, and yet retaining the powers to deal with our own crises as they emerge. That for me is a no-brainer.

As for racism and “that” poster; the leftie-leaning SJWs are crying “racism” but for most Brits the interpretation is that we’re talking economic migrants here, not refugees, and in a country which last year issued 700,000 new National Insurance Numbers entitling their holders to the full range of UK benefits it’s all too much. Especially when the majority are young men of Muslim backgrounds coming from areas where they believe throwing homosexuals off tall buildings is the right thing to do. These people are dangerous (as the French keep finding) and we’re just letting ’em flood in.

We need to be able to decide for ourselves who gets in, and who doesn’t – just like Canada, the US, Australia and NZ. We don’t need an unelected political elite in Brussels making those decisions for us.

The murder of Jo Cox is appalling, but it took
prominent politicians on the Remain side only a few minutes to subtly conflate the murder with the Brexit campaign. As a people, we’re being lied to and misled by our leaders. I’m sure it used to be called “sedition”.

#178 Sam Ambers on 06.20.16 at 5:02 am

LP

I think what George Hull is getting at is probably what happened to my aunt and others in 2007 and beyond.

What happened to my aunt in the U.S. was she was looking at the option of getting $150,000 reverse mortgage on a $375,000 house in late 2006.

She did not need it done right away as she had about $150,000 in savings account, CD and an IRA. She was getting $2,000 a month in social security and had at that time only a remaining car loan of $9,000 on 3 year old car but no mortgage.

The U.S. housing market in her area started to decline quite a bit, 20% in about 20 months.

She noticed that the same reverse mortgage she first asked about was only available at $100,000 20 months later.

The loss in equity plus and continuing falling U.S. real estate market cut her available balance she could borrow by $50,000 or 33% from $150,000 to $100,000.

She even was told that some other lenders were not interested in giving reverse mortgages at all and were cutting back.

Oh, by the way, the fees to set it up was $1,000 higher too.

The bottom line is, once housing prices, real estate drops you can only get less money as a reverse mortgage if that.

#179 Globalist on 06.20.16 at 5:56 am

The income of a male full-time worker in the US is now lower than it was twenty years ago.
This is a terrific disaster. That is why we have rates close to 0%.
In the US you can now either flip burgers or work at a hedgefond. Not much in between anymore. Inequality off the charts.
BTW what do you call a country without a middle class?
Third world.

#180 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.20.16 at 7:07 am

Yan says that a triangle of factors are driving the price increases in the city (Vancouver); foreign investors, low interest rates reducing mortgage borrowing costs, and a lack of supply.

Duh. It isn’t rocket science; foriegn buyers are increasing demand, low interest rates are increasing demand and a lack of supply in the face of the increased demand fuels price increases.

#181 family beagle on 06.20.16 at 7:16 am

#150 will on 06.19.16 at 11:35 pm

My mom told me I should own a small amount of gold. That was some 40 plus years ago. I have nothing but respect for my mother’s investing acumen though I don’t have any gold. But does anyone here know how to do it? Is it possible to purchase and take delivery of say a few ounces of gold? Not planning to do so but just wondering.

….

Go to a dentist or google ‘bullion bars coins’. You can buy it by the gram but the kilo gets a better rate. Expect to pay 3% over spot. However, if you do game metals, silver is the ratio play. The $20 for $20 through the mint will support jobs and get you a keepsake. As a store of value, does an oz of gold still buy a nice suit? That’s the measuring stick.

I would buy some to roll around in on my bed, but my shopping $ are in a holding pattern over another land deal. I still have my ‘get out of a Tijuana jail molar’. I had two but one ended up in the septic tank after the ‘corn kernel’ incident.

#182 family beagle on 06.20.16 at 7:28 am

I spent 5 days in the Cariboo. Brexit who? Toronto how? Vancouver where? Trump what? I have new pity for urbanized internet users. Ask me how come, I’ll say, “by canoe.”

#183 KIAs Krush Harleys & Hummers on 06.20.16 at 7:53 am

#179 Globalist

The income of a male full-time worker in the US is now lower than it was twenty years ago.
This is a terrific disaster. That is why we have rates close to 0%.
In the US you can now either flip burgers or work at a hedgefond. Not much in between anymore. Inequality off the charts.
BTW what do you call a country without a middle class?
Third world.

————————————————-

Exactly. And this is exactly why our host, Mr. Garth is completely wrong.

Trump WILL win. With all the imagined results.

And the elites, the upper part of the 1%, will only have themselves and their financial/political enablers to blame, for policies and schemes that have destroyed the middle class.

Wise commenters and pollsters have already noticed that up to 30% of Bernie’s disaffected supporters say they will never vote for Hillary, but go to Trump instead. Whatever its stupidity at times, Trump talks like he cares about the mainstream American middle class.

That 30% or so, even if it’s only 15%, will be enough to push Trump over the top.

Morning is long past. The middle class ideal has been nearly destroyed.

Now, it’s reckoning time in America.

Today this blog has all the depth of a bumper sticker. — Garth

#184 Globalist on 06.20.16 at 8:11 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ilvNk23oPU&feature=youtu.be&t=979

This is a great lecture about globalization and its shortcomings for the average person in the West.

I highly recommend this for Mr. Turner to watch.

The lecture is held by a Nobel Prize economist and professor at Columbia University. So it won’t wash to dismiss the present as tinfoil-hat-brigade / bumper sticker etc.

A cloistered uni prof. Just wow. — Garth

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.16 at 8:11 am

@#172 Tiger
“Are You Listening, Canada: Australia Slaps Chinese Home Buyers With New Taxes…..”

*******************************************

Actually , Prince Edward Island slapped a moritorium on “foreign” buyers years ago. Too many US residents were snapping up all the best waterfront cottage property.
So…. limitations on the size, location and amount of property non residents could buy were implemented.
Nonresidents ( out of Province Canadians and Foreign buyers) also pay double property tax…..

Apparently the spineless gastropods that “represent” the BC voter havent quite figured out that nonresident buyers dont vote in local, provincial and Federal elections…..but eventually when the screaming from outraged, homeless(buyers AND renters) voters gets loud enough…..they will….
Or they’re just praying this real estate ponzi mess of epic proportions will slowly deflate back to sanity .

Yes, BC should aspire to having PEI’s booming economy and surfeit of jobs. — Garth

#186 salonist on 06.20.16 at 8:16 am

sm

“O Canada” is Canada’s national anthem. Originally called “Chant national,” it was written in Québec City by Sir Adolphe-Basile Routhier (words in French) and composer Calixa Lavallée (music), and first performed there on 24 June 1880. It began to be sung widely in French Canada at that time and later spread across Canada in various English-language versions, of which the best-known was written by Robert Stanley Weir in 1908. The lyrics of this version were amended several times over the years; the French lyrics remain unaltered from the original. “O Canada” was approved as Canada’s national anthem by a Special Joint Committee of the Senate and House of Commons on 15 March 1967. The current version was officially adopted as Canada’s national anthem under the National Anthem Act on 27 June 1980. The Act was proclaimed by Governor General Edward Schreyer in a public ceremony on Parliament Hill on 1 July 1980.

and the original dude even stole the music from a composer in france

move onto Canada day

The death of ‘Dominion Day’

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=849548fc-39c5-4714-964f-089d6866cff4

#187 Andrew t on 06.20.16 at 8:23 am

Clinton will win in the biggest landslide in history.
Watch it happen, my friends.

There just isn’t enough rubes, racists, misanthropes and nihilists to put Trump ahead.

#188 Mr. Frugal on 06.20.16 at 8:27 am

#87 ww1 on 06.19.16 at 7:54 pm
#78 Mr. Frugal on 06.19.16 at 7:05 pm
#74 Mocha on 06.19.16 at 6:40 pm
I’m really disappointed with today’s post. ‘Nuff said.

===================================

I’ll second that! Pretty shabby stuff.

———————————————————-

Did you know that Garth offers full refunds of everything you have paid to read this blog. Including a comprehensive refund of your portion of the advertising revenue for 3rd party stuff that the banner ads and click bait on this site generates.

Or you could just not read it in the first place?

====================================

The comments section is for comments. I read the post and left a comment. This post sucks. I think it has something to do with the fact that Garth is a stuffed shirt wind-bag but that’s purely speculation on my part.

You are free to object to what I write. Dissing me as a person only reflects on you. Badly. — Garth

#189 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.16 at 8:31 am

@#183 Xenophobes ride foreign made Harleys.

The salary of a “male full time worker” has probably stagnated due to globalization and the fact that most young men dont go on to a post secondary education like their female counterparts.
Something about having Harley payments I suspect.
Either way the “elites” as you describe them were, for the most part, born rich and or created some “terribly necessary” computor “gamer app” while hermitting in their middle class divorced moms basement rec room and recieved a billion dollar buyout from another soda sucking basement geek billionaire like Bill Gates.
Either way I dont care.
Trump will never win the US election because (and my apologies to all the white, angry, underpaid, formerly middle class, beer swilling bubbas out there)there isnt enough of similar colored, similar gendered, similar minded voters left in ‘merica.
Demographically speaking of course.

#190 gladiator on 06.20.16 at 8:34 am

Garth,
the big trouble in the US’ housing market started when subprime/cheap mortgages started to reset to normal rates.
Given that 5-year rates are now so cheap in Canada, coupled with no significant troubles in the job market, the housing market will keep going up incessantly for another several years. There’s nothing in sight to stop it or even slow it down.
Rate hikes? What rate hikes? Even the Fed hawks have miraculously turned into dovish doves. Coo?

#191 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.16 at 8:46 am

@#94 acdel
“Let us see what the voters decide!! Democracy in action or so! Let the chips fall where they may and deal with it…”
*******************************************

You mean like this failed “Socialist Utopian” experiment?
http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.macleans.ca/news/world/venezuela-collapses-and-nobody-cares/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiv7aTc0LbNAhUD6GMKHaH-ALIQFggiMAM&usg=AFQjCNFo0OH9kLJ1AKFSx8OC1HxwoDPfvg

A total democracy run by referendums wont work because people want everything and arent willing to pay for it.
Hence California’s “Proposition 13” and the disasterous results.
Lower taxes + more expenditures = bankruptcy

#192 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.16 at 8:55 am

“Yes, BC should aspire to having PEI’s booming economy and surfeit of jobs. — Garth
*******************************************

I didnt say it was perfection! :)-

Just said it could be done…..quickly, legally and without a great deal of gnashing of teeth.

But judging from its rapidly increasing cancer rates ….not the bucolic rural lifestyle everyone imagines…….something about farm fertilizers and well water I suspect.

#193 Ole Doberman on 06.20.16 at 9:13 am

A Trump win is impossible. Learn something of US politics. — Garth
————————————————————-

Gartho ole Doberman here with a thought provoking question – if Trump can’t win why in the heck would he run and waste all that time and money? He’s not a stupid man to become a multi-billionaire.

Maybe he’s as delusional as you are. — Garth

#194 Ole Doberman on 06.20.16 at 9:17 am

If you didn’t think ‘gay’ was a race, we’d be proud of you, too. — Garth
———————————————————–
Gartho good on you for being anti pot legalization.

But what about gay marriage, do you think it should be between a man and woman like God intended, or are you more on the liberal side of things?

I didn’t hear Him say that. — Garth

#195 LP on 06.20.16 at 9:27 am

#61 For those about to flop… on 06.19.16 at 5:21 pm
********************

Your mama raised up for herself a really nice man!
(and Happy Birthday, for a couple of days from now)

F69ON

#196 Ole Doberman on 06.20.16 at 9:31 am

Maybe he’s as delusional as you are. — Garth

————————————————————
That’s a low blow, there’s gotta be more reasoning then that.

I didn’t hear Him say that. — Garth

? Who say what ? I was asking your personal opinion on the topic since you’re my 2nd favorite analyst/finance guru/person etc.

What is your stance on this moral issue that has divided our society?

#197 The American on 06.20.16 at 9:37 am

At #32: Never Say Never, trust me, it is *impossible* for Trump to win for reasons I cannot get into on a blogsite. Just go with me on this one (I’m a Congressional Delegate).

#198 Paul on 06.20.16 at 9:39 am

#170 Vampire Studies GMST 454 on 06.20.16 at 1:11 am

48 chris – I’m a heterosexual white male. I’m a minority!
————————————————————-
And don’t you ever forget it!!!

#199 maxx on 06.20.16 at 9:43 am

#41 economictsunami on 06.19.16 at 2:19 pm

“…..As for Trump. How could you possibly vote for a guy with hair like that? He is obviously lying to himself about his massive comb over.

No wonder he wears baseball hats when it’s windy. His hair would wave like a yellow, nicotine stained flag.

Hey Donald, even from beyond the grave, Rene Levesque is thinking:

‘WTF’s wit de hair Don???’”

ROFL. Now I have to top up my coffee! Très drôle!

#200 Neil Armstrong on 06.20.16 at 9:51 am

#62 Prairieboy43
That “documentary” is total propaganda and fear-mongering. Within the first minute, it sets out to do exactly what it promises it will not: “FOUR HORSEMEN is free from mainstream media propaganda — the film doesn’t bash bankers, criticise politicians or get involved in conspiracy theories.” “Elite”, “Gatekeepers”, “The System”? Come on. No new ideas here. We already know all this.

Here is something much better (and much shorter)…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipe6CMvW0Dg

#201 The American on 06.20.16 at 10:01 am

At #42: Vundo, Drumpf became the nominee by way of division in the republiclown party. He did this by implementing the same divisive tactics and fear mongering his own party has given the masses over the past 8 years (Faux News, for example). The republiclown party has now EARNED Drumpf’s nomination and they are also earning the outcome of the next election. The real problem is the fact the republiclowns had far, far too many nominees in the ring all at once when the race began. In fact, Drumpf *never* won by a “landslide” in his own party at any time whatsoever. Fact: Drumpf has only won consensus as a culmination of winning a minority of votes in several primaries.

For example, take a pie with 17 pieces that are all fairly close in size, some slightly larger, some slightly smaller. Each piece of that pie isn’t very big, right? Well, Drumpf represents one of the larger pieces of that pie within his party. This is why it has been so very hard for him to receive the endorsements he needs for the party to appear unified. Events the nominee, the very leaders of his party struggle to support him, and at the most critical of all times. Why? Because there is no majority support for him within the Republicans. The fact of the matter is Drumpf has one the majority within each State’s primary only on the extreme rarity. See, that’s the problem when you have more than a few people running (and also the problem with multiple party systems)…. You NEVER truly have a majority of the people’s ideals represented. It is impossible. It becomes a lot easier to synch the nomination because more air time goes to Crazy. Hey, Crazy sells!

Now, however, it is indeed over for him. He still doesn’t understand the own system in which he is attempting to play, and even if he did understand it, the EC simply isn’t there for him both in spirit and mathematically. It. Is. Done. You will not hear this from the media (mostly), however, as they need ratings for the next four months. The EC is not a “weak” argument as you put it… It is the ONLY argument because it is the ONLY thing that matters in placing our President.

#202 The American on 06.20.16 at 10:04 am

At #90: Electoral College…. You said the systems is “rigged?” LMFAO! How so? These rules have been in place for decades, and they will remain. The U.S. is not a democracy. The U.S. is a Constitutional Republic, and therefore the systems of Delegates is the game. Drumpf chose to enter into a game of which he has no understanding. Just because he’s sorta starting to understand it and calling fowl, it does not make the system rigged. He was just too stupid to know the rules, which of course means he’s too stupid to be the leader of the free world.

#203 The American on 06.20.16 at 10:15 am

At #91: Nonplused, you said, “The Donald, on the other hand does exist and he has the potential to create great turbulence. So far the democrats can’t come up with anyone to run against him other than a potential criminal who is under investigation. He could end up with a potential landslide of the popular vote, which would expose the electoral college for what it is and potentially cause a disruption in the space-time continuum perceptions of US democracy.”

A few things: 1) Drumpf already creates great turbulence. 2) The Democrats have come up with a candidate that is an attorney, a First Lady of Arkansas, A First Lady of the United States of America, a woman who’s spearheaded multitudes of progressive of initiatives (including the first for the concept of Universal Healthcare within the U.S.), a Senator for New York, Secretary of State for the United States of America, and the next President. As a woman, there will certainly be investigations surrounding her as she has broken the mold for years. Still, after 40+ years of partisan panel investigations, they’ve got NOTHING. Get over it. 3) Drumpf will never win by a landslide as his politics, in fact, do NOT represent the American population. They only represent a somewhat smaller, uneducated, and divisive class within our nation. 4) The U.S. is not a true democracy, nor has it ever claimed to be. The U.S. is a Constitutional Republic. “…. and to the REPUBLIC for which it stands…..”

#204 YVR is Doomed on 06.20.16 at 10:20 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/top-links-economist-says-vancouver-housing-rally-will-end-in-tears/article30520120/

#205 The American on 06.20.16 at 10:22 am

At #174: The EC didn’t flip flop in the case of 2000. The EC is also derived of two parties, for which each side cannot simply switch political affiliation, but instead may switch for support of candidates within they EC Delegate’s political affiliation. In 2000, the Dems didn’t have their shit together. Trust me when I say they do now, as do the Republican Delegates. Drumpf isn’t .

Drumpf cannot win due to this simple thing called math. The REPUBLICAN Delegates are not there for him, and even if they show up, it still isn’t happening. Believe this. It is a fact.

#206 gladiator on 06.20.16 at 10:23 am

@ The American:

If it is so evident that Trump will not win – why is he still campaigning? He’s not a stupid lad and would not waste money on dead projects.
Care to share your thoughts?

#207 Post on 06.20.16 at 10:29 am

There’s little wonder why people continue to buy real estate in Canada and embark on a one asset strategy. Larry fink from Blackrock is now saying the savers and investors should not except more than a 4% yield long term from a balanced diversified porfolio.

That’s an all-US model. Irrelevant. — Garth

#208 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.20.16 at 10:44 am

Today this blog has all the depth of a bumper sticker. — Garth

You want depth. I’ll give you depth…

This current real estate market SUCKS!

Working with Buyers you’ll make 6 appointments to view properties and 4 of them are under contract before you even get there. Many buyers are getting frustrated with their REALTOR® because it seems, to them, that they are missing all the “deals” and they blame it on their REALTOR®. A good REALTOR® knows it’s their job “to check emotion at the door and bring logic to the table”. Hard to do in such a fevered market as this. There is no logic. Pandemonium prevails as emotions run high.

Sellers are afraid to sell because there is nothing to buy if they do sell, nothing “reasonably” priced anyway. Some sellers, mostly the higher end, are putting their homes on the market for ridiculous sums of money. And the thing of it is; a good number of them are selling! $1,000,000 is the new $750,000. We have broken through that psychological $1,000,000 price ceiling and I honestly don’t see it stopping anytime soon because of it. It’s moving so fast you can’t keep up. Hell ya, sure let’s put a million dollar price tag on your otherwise already overpriced $750,000 home.

Sellers are taking the opportunity to cash out and move away from the most absurd markets. When they do they bring to their new locale the distorted construct of that which they left behind.

The new sales process is a choreographed carnival show. Staged viewings during specific hours to bring in and stir up the emotions of the crowd of prospect buyers followed by sellers further manipulating the matter by entertaining offers only two days hence between the hours of this and that. “You want a piece of this action, you’re going to play by my rules” is the almost conceited attitude of sellers who know they are in control. I get it; they want as much as they can get. This IS a seller’s market after all. But really in such a heated market as this heated price it right and it will sell, probably for more than list in a multiple bid situation. Why the need for such a cheap and tawdry carnival show? Isn’t it absurd enough for you already? Buyers are starting to see through it, they are getting pissed off with being taken for a stooge, a fool…. But in many a case that is what they are and as you know the last one in is the… “Greater Fool”.

Fear and greed is to be expected as a part of a market that is out of balance one way or the other. But this? This is stupid. This is absurd. It seems the whole North American ideal is getting further and further distorted and during each peak of the next cycle it just gets more and more surreal as greater heights of fear and greed kick in pushing buyers and sellers to ever increasing insane levels of wanton house lust.

Today real estate is what sustains the economy it seems. There is so much riding on real estate to help it correct to where it really should be would be to jeopardize the WHOLE economy. We’ve put ourselves between a rock and a hard place.

I am so sick and tired of being a part of an industry that propagates such misplaced ideals. There is more to life than stainless, hardwood and granite people. Chill out and get a life. Do you really think because you have a fancy crib your friends are going too miraculously suddenly show up to share a bottle of wine around your new granite topped Kitchen Island like those house pimping ads depict? If they don’t do it now they aren’t going to then either. The problem isn’t your house or lack thereof. Your problem is YOU! You are too wantonly obsessed with material things. You are shallow, greedy and incapable of a relationship with anything that doesn’t bling.

That “deep” enough for you Garth?

#209 Caught on 06.20.16 at 10:44 am

We will look back 5 years from now and realize that this was one of the best buying opportunities for the S&P500 (ie SPY, VFV, VTI) & one of the greatest selling opportunities for govt bonds and of course Canadian real estate.

#210 Oot of the Hoos on 06.20.16 at 10:46 am

My wife was a brown person. She was not semi-communist, athiest-perverse, and not diabolical narcissistic, like the open-borders world government planners and 2/3 of our population.

She was hindu, anti-communist, and became a follower of Jesus, anti-communist.

#211 nubbers on 06.20.16 at 11:24 am

An antidote to all the Brexit the Movie links:
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Brexit

#212 BS on 06.20.16 at 11:29 am

190 gladiator on 06.20.16 at 8:34 am
Garth,
the big trouble in the US’ housing market started when subprime/cheap mortgages started to reset to normal rates.

No, the big trouble started when house prices went above what fundamentals said they should be. When something is in a bubble it will correct. The trigger is irrelevant. Like a person who has a heart attach after climbing some stairs. The stairs didn’t cause the heart attach. If the person avoided the stairs that day something else would have triggered it. The problem is the heart was diseased not the stairs.

#213 Ronaldo on 06.20.16 at 11:31 am

#190 Gladiator

”Given that 5-year rates are now so cheap in Canada, coupled with no significant troubles in the job market, the housing market will keep going up incessantly for another several years. There’s nothing in sight to stop it or even slow it down.
Rate hikes? What rate hikes? Even the Fed hawks have miraculously turned into dovish doves. Coo?”

When prices have risen to the point that even at zero interest rates housing is not affordable for most how can they continue to go higher? I hear many people who say there is nothing much to buy out there. What they are really saying is there is nothing affordable in my price range to buy. People have been priced out in the hot bubbly markets already. When you hear that professionals with dual incomes of $250,000 cannot afford to buy or to rent, we know we are near the top of this roller coaster ride. Next direction is downnnnnnn.

#214 Randy on 06.20.16 at 11:36 am

While Trump may not win, he has discredited the Media and Political Establishment so effectively that he can likely create a New Media Empire….with the Trump Brand.

#215 Llama on 06.20.16 at 12:04 pm

“… Drumpf became the nominee by way of division in the republiclown party. He did this by implementing the same divisive tactics and fear mongering his own party has given the masses over the past 8 years (Faux News, for example). The republiclown party has now EARNED Drumpf’s nomination and they are also earning the outcome of the next election. The real problem is the fact the republiclowns had far, far too many nominees in the ring all at once when the race began. In fact, Drumpf *never* won by a “landslide” in his own party at any time whatsoever. Fact: Drumpf has only won consensus as a culmination of winning a minority of votes in several primaries.”

“Drumpf will never win by a landslide as his politics, in fact, do NOT represent the American population. They only represent a somewhat smaller, uneducated, and divisive class within our nation.”

Oh, The American, please say it again…
and again…
and again…
I so much enjoy hearing you foaming at the mouth and demonstrating the proper conduct a civilized and educated liberal has to show against the Neaderthals.

Yes, nothing like the smell of fear in the morning… it exudes through your pores. So enjoyable…

#216 Ole Doberman on 06.20.16 at 12:32 pm

Big defaults coming to Canadian banks over coming mortgage crisis:

http://beta.bnn.ca/u-s-style-housing-crash-could-cost-canada-s-banks-11-7-billion-moody-s-1.511326

#217 CJBob on 06.20.16 at 12:44 pm

#207 Post on 06.20.16 at 10:29 am
…Larry fink from Blackrock is now saying the savers and investors should not except more than a 4% yield long term from a balanced diversified porfolio.
____________________________
That’s an all-US model. Irrelevant. — Garth
____________________________
He’s talking about a balance portfolio which would include exposure around the globe and he actually said to expect 4 to 5%, not 4. But either way his point is rates are low and staying that way for the foreseeable future. And Garth I believe you say a balanced portfolio will return 6%? That used to be a good number, it needs to be adjusted now in this historically low interest rate environment.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/20/larry-fink-im-still-nervous-about-brexit–but-here-is-whats-next.html

“It would be wrong to expect anything more than 4 percent or 5 percent at this time, if you’re putting money to work today for long term

#218 LDS Seventy in Calgary on 06.20.16 at 12:50 pm

You said that a Trump win is impossible. Likely correct, given that George W. Bush was never elected and started an illegal war in Iraq. I remember Gore winning and the next day watching that the electoral college determined George winning. The USA system is stupid. I voted after George stole the election and screwed the world by leaving for good. Havent filed a 1040 in years and never will. Anticipate huge amounts of people leaving USA if Hillary Clinton is elected. The only people that worry about the IRS are those that want anything to do with the third world dump that is the USA. I hear Canadians talking often about their visits to USA as if it is some kind of paradise. Im happy that they enjoy it and hopefully they have their affairs in order by abiding by the fascist organization that is the IRS. Nicely the IRS has zero jurisdiction in Canada. And if you dont vote and dont renew an American passport they wont be able to find you.

Lastly, the world is a mess. Two candidates for the US presidency each with severe flaws. A world dependent on countries that war over who the successor to Mohammad should be. Terrorists that mask their deeds by professing to be Muslim all the while showing the difficulty among the many sects of Islam as to what they actually believe.

This is an interesting time. Enjoy the ride.

#219 Mr. Frugal on 06.20.16 at 1:02 pm

Milo says it’s time to leave.

https://youtu.be/ZJJZLwkcEhU

#220 For those about to flop... on 06.20.16 at 1:06 pm

#195 LP on 06.20.16 at 9:27 am
#61 For those about to flop… on 06.19.16 at 5:21 pm
********************

Your mama raised up for herself a really nice man!
(and Happy Birthday, for a couple of days from now)

F69ON

////////////////////////////////////////////

Too kind,LP too kind.

I think it takes a while for us all the find our place on the blog.I remember when I first got on the blog Garth had a poll and I was vague with my answers because I didn’t feel comfortable sharing information.

There are people that come here just to poke the poop and push their agendas but if they think anyone is not talking about what is their important issues they try to get you to leave.

I go the other way as anonymous as it can be, I try to forge relationships because I have noticed that’s when I exchange and receive the best information. The better to understand where the poster is coming from the better I can use my limited brain power to analyze the information and see if I would like to apply it in my investments and personal life.

I intend on coming here until Garth pulls the plug, I will not be bullied by someone who comes here to lobby for votes like was happening here in the last Canadian election, tell people how to vote or think about Brexit or how any Americans on the blog should vote later this year.

In other words every couple of months a new wave of transients will pass through,push their agendas and move on,the guys that are open to continual learning and information sharing will stay.

Good to see the markets are having a great day especially in the U.K.Just watched a segment on BBC news which showed car makers and some airlines are recommending to their workers to vote to Stexit or stay.

The polls and the bookies don’t seem to be reading from the same songbook.The main political parties have said they will not contest an election to replace Jo Cox,some of the smaller far right intend to run but this seems like a waste of time and in poor taste.

England plays their last group game in a few hours and barring a complete collapse they should go through and life will be good for a few days.

More people will be interested in this game than anything to do with Brexit.

As the three lions goes ,this nation goes….it will always be a bumpy ride…

M41BC

#221 Looney Baloney on 06.20.16 at 2:02 pm

So when’s Quexit? We’ll be voting to get rid of them of course.

#222 Lee on 06.20.16 at 3:09 pm

Garth,

Your 6.3% balanced globally diversified portfolio only works with China and Brazil and other big emerging markets growing by 7% to 8% a year. I don’t see that in the next ten years. Better to just plop it all on Canadian banks and some Canadian prefs when the banks are too frothy. This has worked fine for lots of people.

#223 conan on 06.20.16 at 3:27 pm

RE #51 Brazil ex-pat on 06.19.16 at 2:57 pm

“Your absolutely right. Invasion after invasion and 19 TRILLION dollars of debt are much better thanks to the Clintons, Bush’s and Obummer….”

To be fair Obama inherited Operation “WTF?”
By the time Obama could look at this file , the entire Nation was “F-35’d” into continuing it.

The leadership behind Operation “WTF?” promised “Crusadian” results. But, delivered Epic failure.

Obama believed that the “leadership” behind this operation could deliver. He was wrong.

Obama = A good President IMHO. Lets hope we see a smooth transition to Hilary/Sanders.

#224 james on 06.20.16 at 3:34 pm

#202 The American on 06.20.16 at 10:04 am

At #90: Electoral College…. You said the systems is “rigged?” LMFAO! How so? These rules have been in place for decades, and they will remain. The U.S. is not a democracy. The U.S. is a Constitutional Republic, and therefore the systems of Delegates is the game. Drumpf chose to enter into a game of which he has no understanding. Just because he’s sorta starting to understand it and calling fowl, it does not make the system rigged. He was just too stupid to know the rules, which of course means he’s too stupid to be the leader of the free world.
…………………………………………………………………….
“The American” I dare you to try to explain that the Smoking Man our resident idiot savant! If your LMFAO now wait until he responds.

#225 Dan Duran on 06.20.16 at 3:50 pm

@ Gladiator..”professionals with dual incomes of $250,000″ cannot afford to buy?? LOL. Sure they can, they just think they are entitled to more than they find in their price range. Yup, the baby boomers aren’t dying fast enough, so new buyers have to go up or out, like other generations before them. 50 years ago it meant going all the way north of Eglinton, 30 years ago it meant perhaps buying a condo in a 4 storey ‘luxury’ building. Today, 16th Avenue in the GTA is the new Eglinton and the 30 storey tower downtown is the new 4 storey.

#226 Looney Baloney on 06.20.16 at 4:04 pm

#232
Obama = A good President IMHO
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

Question for you Conan. If, by some bizarre chance Trump makes a hail mary and manages to win, and just supposedly, the markets tank the following day, will you:

– Be fair, and Admit it isn’t his fault, as he inherited “Operation WTF” from President Obama, who couldn’t fix it after eight long years
– Agree that Trump merely believed the current leadership was competent, but was mistaken?
– Admit that Trump, IYHO, is a good man, as you have excused him of all blame?

#227 The American on 06.20.16 at 4:16 pm

At #206: Gladiator, you said, “If it is so evident that Trump will not win – why is he still campaigning? He’s not a stupid lad and would not waste money on dead projects.
Care to share your thoughts?”

The answer is simple. The republiclowns have their nominee now, due to a culmination of minority wins throughout several primaries. He has never won the majority. Now they are stuck with this nominee. Because the U.S. is a two-party system and this is a “race”, the republiclowns have no other option but to continue down this path until the very, very end. The outcome, however, is decided. American Presidential elections are not won by “maybes” within the EC system. They are won by technical absolutes. In this case, the official election night has not ensued; therefore, there is no technical absolute, hence the “race” continues.

If the election were called today, what message would this send to the republiclown party? It would send a message the party is dead and is completely void of validity in our nation. As a two-party system, this cannot happen. Instead, Drumpf is a reflection of the actual change that needs to take place (and will take place) within the republiclown party. When that change happens, I will refer to them once again as Republicans. Again, this is the very reason he is struggling to garner the openly public support of his party’s leaders. They too understand the stakes at hand in way of a LONG TERM implication to simply calling it a day and taking their ball and going home.

The next handful of months bring about opportunity for both parties, especially the republiclowns, to be reflective of the FUTURE platforms that really matter to the American populous and then placating to those matters at a later date, as in the following election cycle. They are broken, they know it, and this is their time to figure out how to fix it and recognize what is important. As I’ve stated earlier, 8 years of lies, deception, fear mongering, and manipulation within Congress have not yielded them the results they intended. Now, they reap those consequences yet again with this election. Again, they’ve EARNED Drumpf as their nominee. It is over for them in this election, and they already know it, but to quit outright at this point sends a final message the party is dead (and I do not believe it is dead).

You will see several changes happen within their party over the next four years, including more progressive stances (relative to Bible beating Cruz), a return closer to the middle line of politics, and more collaboration with the Democrats. They now get to rebuild their establishment with better checks and balances, and indeed they will.

#228 The American on 06.20.16 at 4:27 pm

At #226: Looney Baloney, if you truly believe Drumpf is a “good man” and not part of the establishment (if not the absolute epitome of the establishment), please consider the following: http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/

http://www.dailywire.com/news/4834/trumps-101-lies-hank-berrien

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/counting-donald-trumps-lies/2016/05/25/bc0d93a8-229f-11e6-aa84-42391ba52c91_story.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/03/22/all-of-donald-trumps-four-pinocchio-ratings-in-one-place/

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279125-former-gop-senator-trump-is-a-sociopath

http://countercurrentnews.com/2016/02/psychologist-explains-trump-is-literally-a-narcissistic-psychopath/

The bottom line is this, Drumps does NOT represent the popular vote, the Electoral College, nor his party’s leaders. He’s a genuine narcissist and sociopath with very dangerous behaviors. As much as the media is loving all the bad coming from his campaign and the divisiveness he has created, the American population as a collective whole know better. Clinton will anhiliate him in the election, and for good reason; 1) She has and will continue to have the popular vote 2) She has the support of Delegates and Super Delegates within the EC. Drumpf has neither. He loses fair and square.

#229 conan on 06.20.16 at 4:33 pm

RE #226 Looney Baloney on 06.20.16 at 4:04 pm

“Question for you Conan. If, by some bizarre chance Trump makes a hail mary and manages to win, and just supposedly, the markets tank the following day, will you:

– Be fair, and Admit it isn’t his fault, as he inherited “Operation WTF” from President Obama, who couldn’t fix it after eight long years
– Agree that Trump merely believed the current leadership was competent, but was mistaken?
– Admit that Trump, IYHO, is a good man, as you have excused him of all blame?”

I like your questions….. Before I digress, Trump could do a ” Hail Mary.” If he was to fire his campaign manager (done) and change things up…… he could dent the Democrats.

How, you ask? Just start campaigning as a Democrat, Pretend to care about the environment or gun control. Stuff like that. Then go steal Bernie…. he is your VP.

Do that and victory is yours!!!

Now your questions.

Yes, Trump will now be the leader of Operation “WTF?” He will get a pass from me even if he drops the ball.

Yes to question 2, Another pass here as well.

I would only hazard a guess like that after giving him a term.

#230 PetroLogic on 06.20.16 at 4:36 pm

Seems Garth is banning those that don’t coincide with his socially progressive agenda…

How disappointing.

Now that’s funny. — Garth

#231 Simon on 06.20.16 at 4:43 pm

#216 Ole Doberman on 06.20.16 at 12:32 pm
Big defaults coming to Canadian banks over coming mortgage crisis:

http://beta.bnn.ca/u-s-style-housing-crash-could-cost-canada-s-banks-11-7-billion-moody-s-1.511326
*******************************************

Garth,

With the possibility of a housing correction affecting CAD banks and upcoming USD rate hike would you consider liquidating CAD common bank shares and swapping for pref shares (e.g. CPD.to, ZPR.to) ? Or is this merely a blip in the banks long-term earnings.

#232 gladiator on 06.20.16 at 4:52 pm

Many thanks to BS, Ronaldo, Dan Duran and The American for replying. Appreciate The American’s detailed post – very informative!

With rates so low and buyers able to lock them for 5 years, the can has been kicked so far down the road, that any housing correction within the next several years is simply out of the picture. The move-up buyers are using the equity they have built in their current dwellings and buying stuff over 1.5 million. I am speaking about GTA and personally know 5 families who did just that in the last 8 months.
I don’t know where people get the money to buy, but houses are still being sold in record-short times and this accelerated in the last half-year. With no big shocks to the market (as I described in my first post here), why would anyone think this will stop or even slow down?

#233 45north on 06.20.16 at 5:05 pm

Says Capital economics chief North American economist Paul Ashworth: “This is a bubble. A very big bubble. And it is going to end in tears. The Bank (of Canada) claim that the risk of a housing downturn is small because there is little risk of either a spike in the unemployment rate or a jump in long-term interest rate risk premiums is naïve in the extreme.”

here’s an article. Jesse Felder says that the ratio of assets to income is at an all time high.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jesse-felder/single-most-important-chart

according to Felder: it’s not sustainable and despite the Fed’s best efforts to perpetuate it, there’s going to be consequences.”

so where have people borrowed heavily to buy an asset? housing. I mean if you own some shares and they drop in value well you still own the shares.

Bill Morneau is taking a “deep” look at housing. There’s no easy answers. I guess it’s a question of who are you going to hurt?

#234 Bobby on 06.20.16 at 5:52 pm

For #208 DA. Interesting post but the reality is the the realtors themselves are a significantly large part of the problem. In many ways they are doing their clients a real disservice. I sold my house privately a number of months back in a private deal. Everyone knew it was for sale and I got both a private offer and one through a realtor. Although the realtor’s client saw it first and offered more, at the end of the day, my private sale offered equally as much regardless that the realtor had cut their commission significantly. And I knew what was being said, because I was saying it. From what I understood these clients had missed out on a number of sales. I felt sorry for them and would have suggested they ditch their realtor. My new buyers were thrilled, and we had no stress of staging or such. An easy enjoyable experience. My cost, $1000 to my lawyer and she was good. More importantly, the hefty deposit went into my lawyer’s account, not some brokerage. Ironically I’ve since had lots of calls from people wanting to sell their homes privately.
To suggest that putting a sign on a lot and listing the property on MLS is worth $30k in commission is complete bunk. The sad part about realtors is they believe their own hype.

#235 Metaxa on 06.20.16 at 5:58 pm

Seems Garth is banning those that don’t coincide with his socially progressive agenda…

How disappointing.

Now that’s funny. — Garth

Funny isn’t the word I’d use.
Paranoid maybe…

#236 conan on 06.20.16 at 6:38 pm

Own a desirable home? A cat, chewing on a dead bird, could sell it. Own a cookie cutter home? Or a home, that won’t sell for a few months? Then , Realtors are worth their fees.

It is all relative.