The squeeze

SQUEEZE modified

Hmm. So much to get your shorts in a twist over. Are you ready?

In nine days there’s the Brexit thing, with four polls yesterday showing the ‘Leave’ side is gaining momentum fast. Whether the ‘Remain’ camp will be overwhelmed by the June 23rd vote is unknown, but it’s gettin’ ugly. The pound is falling , equity markets are sketchy and investors have been fleeing to the safety of fixed income, bloating German bond prices and pushing rates negative. The no forces have managed to turn this into a vote about nationalism, ‘Britishness’ and anti-immigration. Ugly. Outcome perilous.

Now add in Trump. And Orlando. The mass killing this week by the radical, ISIS-loving nutjob just polarized the already-bizarre presidential race even more, as it drifts into the emotional areas of gun control and Muslims. And while The Donald statistically cannot win (the popular vote does not elect presidents) the campaign ahead will be one of the most shrill, aggressive and divisive in US history. More volatility.

Then there’s us. StatsCan reported Tuesday morning we continue to pickle and saute  ourselves in debt. We now owe $1.9 trillion, 65.6% of which ($1.26 trillion) is in mortgages. So overall debt remains at 165% of disposable income, the highest number ever recorded, which worries the poop out an increasing number of engaged people.

“The weaker economy has reignited concerns about the elevated level of household debt and divergent trends in house prices, which are rapidly rising in Vancouver and Toronto and falling in Alberta,” says the International Monetary Fund in a new report. On Tuesday the OECD, another global financial body of influence, warned Ottawa it has to cool this housing sucker off – fast. “That means (home buyers have) got skin in the game, and that means if (your house) comes down in price at some point then you also lose part of that,” said OECD boss Angel Gurría.

And what about voices from the trenches?

Here’s one belonging to Mo Povoden, a Re/Max agent working BC’s Whistler and Pemberton regions. Below is taken from an open letter he sent clients yesterday. The message: sell now, and do not buy. There’s a storm coming. Sound a tad familiar?

“Having been an investor in this area for nearly 25 years now… I’ve seen cycles.  I’ve seen cycles and let me state for the record – while their swing and magnitudes have varied cycle to cycle, their timings have not.  With the pending US election on the immediate horizon, talk of interest rates increasing both for Canada and the US, talk of China’s reforms on out-of-country investment as well as staving off a country wide meltdown themselves; we have the perfect storm brewing.  Anyone remember the summer of 2008??  All that fervour and buying and positive market attitude with people buying homes all over the place and loving life and spending and racking up their credit cards and being told everything was rainbows and unicorns and nothing could possibly go wrong??  Almost similar to what’s being said today – in the news – in conversation with people – friends – families – businesses…  Optimism and disbelief almost at equal peggings.  Well folks – we’ve been here before, and we’re about to be somewhere else again!…  The party’s in full swing – so if you want to benefit from a fantastic return on your property purchase from 1 year ago or 10+ years ago – NOW IS THE TIME TO DO IT!!!

“For those eyeballing to BUY….  If you can resist the urge to lock into these outstandingly tempting rates offered by your mortgaging branch, do so – WAIT!!.  The correction on the horizon can see prices correct quickly in the arena of roughly 20-23% over the course of the next 2 years.  Sure – this will also be paralleled with an increase in lending rates, but saving almost a quarter on the purchase of your [next] property compared to the point or two up on lending rates.”

There’s more, of course. Oil has plopped again into the $40-range and most oil sands production is still sidelined after the Albertan wild fires. The top bankers are worrying more every day, it seems, about what Canadians are doing. (On Tuesday the Teranet-National Bank composite index showed a huge 9% national year/year surge in prices.) Two years ago the CEO of Scotia was saying “‘bubble’ is perhaps the most overused word since the global financial crisis,” while now he’s saying, “we’re a little concerned about housing prices in the Greater Vancouver area and Toronto,” and cutting back on lending. Suck. Blow.

Add in China’s bloating debt levels, the Fed’s ongoing rate tease, record assault rifle sales on Monday and whatever the hell Justin Bieber did on stage in Winnipeg Saturday night and, well, maybe it’s time to go to the cottage and unplug.

So, stop reading this blog. Final warning. Govern yourself accordingly.

SELLER-BUYER MARKET

From the Bank of Canada: GTA & YVR are sellers’ markets. In Montreal & Calgary the buyers are in control.

203 comments ↓

#1 SitesTree on 06.14.16 at 6:08 pm

Am I the first?

#2 Anna Adamson on 06.14.16 at 6:09 pm

When realtors issue warnings it is something! I am glad to be in a modest paid off house at this time.

#3 Mark on 06.14.16 at 6:09 pm

Bizarre. The guy cites 2008 in his sales pitch, which was an absolutely disaster for RE, spending, etc. Yet he goes on to claim that loading up on consumer and interest rate sensitive assets is a good thing to do on credit.

Then again, we have Realtors who claim that Vancouver prices are actually going up even to this day. Despite plenty of evidence to disprove such. What a bizarre world we live in, where we can’t even trust the ‘news’ or otherwise reputable professionals to provide accurate information.

#4 ed on 06.14.16 at 6:17 pm

This translates into–leave your balanced portfolio as is; the ride might be rocky but markets win in the end. The dust will settle and get kicked up again, and settle..

#5 X on 06.14.16 at 6:20 pm

Still doubtful that Bill Morneau will implement anything of substance to the RE market…..will probably talk his proposals up though.

Hoping for the sake of the financially illiterate public that his changes will protect them from themselves, but not holding my breath for anything impactful.

Capping 25 year mortgages would hit the move up crowd who are stretching themselves to afford 30-35 year payments.

I can’t see a further increase to the downpayments…as they recently dinked with those. 10% does assume some skin in the game though doesn’t it.

And offloading responsibility to the banks seems reasonable, they are the ones who signed off on these loans in the first place.

The RE market reminds me of playing musical chairs when I was a child. Where everyone would scramble for the remaining chairs to get one. Ultimately the music ends.

#6 BOOM! on 06.14.16 at 6:22 pm

Another day of uncertainty on the markets. Time to be glad to have harvested profits, and await the BREXIT buying opportunity coming up.

No matter the vote, there will be panicky selling in play to harvest something (I hope).

“Things” just don’t quite ‘feel right’ to me. Hard to explain. I’m sure smoking man’s UCC connection would make it all crystal clear, but my gut tells me, to wait -chill- a spell. Besides, it takes 3 days to clear the sells already completed.

In the meantime, meh not a lot of new good news that I have been reading. Ooh, did run across an interesting web site. Make America date again, offering to match Americans with their most compatible Canadian counterparts should Trump be victorious, and they wish to re-locate north.

At least one entrepreneur has a sense of humor, and money. Hope they do really well, that’ll prop up the RE gas bag just a little longer.

It takes a vision.

M64WI

#7 Joe2.0 on 06.14.16 at 6:26 pm

If the UK bails loads of European money will filter into RE, in both Canada and the U.S.

Funny guy. — Garth

#8 GsAmazon on 06.14.16 at 6:31 pm

Well, something needs to happen for housing in downtown Toronto…I just sit here day after day, reading this pathetic blog in my super-cheap rent-controlled apartment, driving my landlord bananas.

#9 gladiator on 06.14.16 at 6:31 pm

“Now is the time to sell.”
And I will be happy to help you with that ;)

#10 Champagne? on 06.14.16 at 6:38 pm

Curious Garth,
Do you have a champagne bottle somewhere in your back closet, waiting for the day where you can say “I told you so?”

#11 Doug t on 06.14.16 at 6:43 pm

Who is worse Trump or Clinton? That is a hell of a question when you consider they are both megalomaniacs with nothing even remotely positive to bring to the idiot office. Both are destructive in different ways – so get ready because either way the outcome of this election will have worldwide negative ripple effect.

#12 TnT on 06.14.16 at 6:50 pm

Second chance at getting this right….

Sold house in 2012, stuck all the proceeds in a balanced portfolio and rented in the T.O.

2014 – went crazy, drank the Kool-Aid and drained the portfolio and bought my Toronto home.

Just sold it, bully offer, over asking, no conditions at 51% more than what I payed… Pure luck, not even wife and family complained.

Back to renting (thanks Garth, blog scared me straight)

I can seriously say that I witnessed first hand the madness…. I’m still in shock that someone bought my place.

Just need to stay off the Kool-Aid now…. Is there a KA meeting anytime soon?

#13 Joe2.0 on 06.14.16 at 6:52 pm

“Funny guy”
My reasoning is that people with money in the Euro exchanges will cash out to avoid the unknown backlash.

There’s going to be a lot of money coming to this side of the pond.

Much of it buying up US dollars before it spikes on the
Brexit.

As the Cdn dollar continues to fall.

#14 WallOfWorry on 06.14.16 at 6:53 pm

Canadian housing is one of a few asset bubbles. When the correction occurs, it will not be a Canadian driven event. While Canadian household debt may be alarming have you looked at what is happening around you? The US will not raise rates in June and may try to raise once this year to save face. However, the US is flashing signs of recession, and China is not leading the way, so governments will continue to provide stimulis, Chinese currency will continue to devalue forcing foreign investment with Canada being the benefactor. If Garth is right about Canada real estate, when that day occurs, it will be clearly evident that he was dead wrong about everything else.

#15 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 06.14.16 at 6:57 pm

sounds good garth
unpluggin iz nice in the summer
smellya later

#16 Self Directed on 06.14.16 at 6:57 pm

Where does a new investor start buying? I’m worried about asset allocation. Are ETF’s safe? If I owned them beforehand, I would just ride it out. But I worry about making a big ETF purchase, and then the markets crash. Anyone have a crystal ball to predict what Brexit, Trump, Yellen, Morneau might bring in 2017? (or sooner?).

#17 Victoria Real Estate Update on 06.14.16 at 6:57 pm

When realtors in and around Vancouver start talking about a 20% – 23% price correction in 2 years, sell their properties and say that it’s beginning to slow, you know that market is at or near its peak.

It’s interesting that the realtor in Garth’s post compared the attitude of people today to that which was around in 2008 – right before this began in Vancouver.

From 2008-09, house prices in Vancouver fell at a rate of 14.2% per year (for 10 months) until interest rates were suddenly slashed from near-normal to emergency levels.

. . . . . Vancouver House Prices. . . . . .
. Percent Below July 2008 Price Level . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . .July. . . . December. . . . May. . .
. . . . . 2008. . . . . 2008 . . . . . 2009. . .

(source: Teranet’s index)

In 2009, Vancouver’s (crashing?) housing market was rescued by emergency rates.

This time, as house prices are falling in Vancouver, it won’t be possible to turn the market around again through a similarly powerful intervention as in 2009. Vancouver’s housing market will correct fully and completely.

#18 MSM-Free Zone on 06.14.16 at 7:00 pm

Let me get this right.

A Whistler rEALTor® is recommending owners to SELL!, while at the same time cautioning buyers, DON’T BUY!

Wondering, after 25 years in the business, if he’s figured out without any BUYERS, there won’t be any SELLERS….

…inquiring minds need to know.

#19 Goldie on 06.14.16 at 7:03 pm

Uncontrolled Islamic immigration, and the utter fear of EU politicians to even allow a public discussion on the subject, is a major factor in the desire of many English to extricate their country from merkel’s mess.

#20 Rexx Rock on 06.14.16 at 7:03 pm

Another rate cut in fall and possibly in the winter.Poloz knows it will stimulate the economy and help home owners.

#21 Love My Kia on 06.14.16 at 7:04 pm

My oral fixation with gold has intensified much more lately, I wonder why?

#22 Big Jack on 06.14.16 at 7:05 pm

Hi Garth,
While I usually agree with your opinions on real estate & investing, you couldn’t be more hopelessly wrong on immigration. What happened in Orlando was directly because of lacking nationalism in the USA.
You’re also hopelessly wrong on Trump. He’s a man that tells it like it is. Hillary is a pathological liar & failed miserably in her stint as Secretary of state.
The whole social progressive narrative that you pedal is evaporating before our eyes. Think about it, have you ever even been invited to a home wedding at a mosque?

Go away. — Garth

#23 Jimmy on 06.14.16 at 7:06 pm

Whatever.

Justin Bieber was in town last night.

#24 Unhinged Loon on 06.14.16 at 7:09 pm

Gold is looking REALLY good these days…

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.16 at 7:13 pm

Hmmm
Lets see.
Obama is leaving in 7 months so he’s a lame duck.
Trump or Clinton may be the next Prez.
The US military is “flexing” with TWO aircraft carrier groups in the Mediterranean Sea and a Frigate “touring” the Black Sea much to Russia’s consternation.
The South China Sea also has a US carrier group sailing somewhere on its “nether regions” much to Chinas’ consternation.
The Phillipines just elected “Dirty” Duarte who jokes about rape victims( their version of Donald Trump only worse if you can believe it) while he threatens China with a nonexsistant navy…

Brexit. Grexit. Germany’s negative bond rates. Italy’s crappy banks. Spain limping. France with 10.5% unemployment.
Canada’s real estate bubble… obscene credit debt…mounting unemployment.

Interesting times……

#26 Smokey Valentine on 06.14.16 at 7:13 pm

Looking for my real dad.

Mom says he hangs around here when the forex is not moving.

She says he’s out of this world!

#27 VancouverBrit on 06.14.16 at 7:19 pm

As a Brit living in Canada it’s quite a simple desire for the Leave party that seems to get over complicated by the Remain party.

We simply want two things:

1) To be able to control ourselves. Currently Britain is governed by the EU, with all laws and regulations having to be approved by them before we can put it into place. How would Canada feel if any law they wanted imposed would have to be approved by a group of countries consisting of the US, Mexico and all of South America? Quite simply they wouldn’t. The EU is made up of a diverse group of nations with drastically different ideologies. Each needs to govern themselves as they see fit.

2) To secure our borders: We are sick and tired of anybody in the EU being allowed into Britain whenever they please. Most of the EU are struggling countries and the UK is seen as a safe haven for a vast amount of people. They flock to the UK to take advantage of their benefits and employment opportunities, only to send the money back home to wherever they’re from. The UK is full to the brim of people, our education and health services are crumbling, and the housing market is nearly as crazy as Vancouver’s. Net migration is exploding every year because we cannot turn people away. Our current PM has promised to do so for years, but he cannot do it whilst inside the EU, we don’t have any authority.

I know this might seem ironic since I emigrated to Canada, but Canada is desperate for people to come here and needs the skilled labour. They have a pretty strict immigration policy in place, only allowing people in who have certain skills. The UK is already too full and doesn’t need the majority of people that arrive. Most of them are unskilled.

The remain party like to use constant scare tactics to make people vote to stay. The news is unbearable to read at times, every day a new story comes out as to what will happen if we vote to leave. Sure, there are economic risks, but the UK has always thrived with or without the EU, and will continue to do so should we leave.

I’ve no doubt the markets will over react when we vote leave (it will happen, remain is slowly but surely falling behind), but in the long-term we will be far better off out than in.

#28 Perfect Storm on 06.14.16 at 7:25 pm

This is nothing. How about this. Oil slowly drifta to 10. Partly because Janet, miming concern, tightens the screw (as per old plan), partly because ahem everything is awsome. Loonie sees its shadow and halves politely in the finest Canadian way, while banks cry wolf and scream hurt while cashing in insurance. Mortgages float peacefully to 7 because the triple whammy. Lower loonie, higher US yield, dead cmhc. Libgs busy to scrape more tax for the wunderkind and his/her ballerina slash singer slash whatever else comes. Run!

#29 Julia on 06.14.16 at 7:28 pm

Mortgage debt does NOT include home equity lines as these are considered consumer debt? Is there anywhere that shows the amount of those?
A lot of people converted their mortgage to home equity loans with the rise in values.

#30 Keith Sawatsky on 06.14.16 at 7:32 pm

DELETED

#31 Presumptive President Trump on 06.14.16 at 7:33 pm

“And while The Donald statistically cannot win (the popular vote does not elect presidents) the campaign ahead will be one of the most shrill, aggressive and divisive in US history.”

Said increasingly nervous man for the tenth time this year..

#32 Arfmooocat on 06.14.16 at 7:34 pm

#14 Big Jack on 06.14.16 at 7:05 pm
Hi Garth,
While I usually agree with your opinions on real estate & investing, you couldn’t be more hopelessly wrong on immigration. What happened in Orlando was directly because of lacking nationalism in the USA.
You’re also hopelessly wrong on Trump. He’s a man that tells it like it is. Hillary is a pathological liar & failed miserably in her stint as Secretary of state.
The whole social progressive narrative that you pedal is evaporating before our eyes. Think about it, have you ever even been invited to a home wedding at a mosque?

Go away. — Garth

……………………………………………………………………

I kind of liked Trump in the beginning just because he wasn’t your normal stereo type rhetoric boring politician. But the more he opens his mouth, the more of a nutjob he becomes.

I went to a Sikh wedding reception at a mosque in Toronto a few years back and the big pic on the wall was some person in turban dress holding a machine gun. That seemed not what I would think a pic of someone held in high regard would be pictured like. Kind of like us seeing the Queen with a machine gun.

#33 Simplyput7 on 06.14.16 at 7:36 pm

“And while The Donald statistically cannot win (the popular vote does not elect presidents)…”

I have heard from some die-hard Bernie Sanders supports that if he is not the successful candidate they will vote for Donald Trump just to radically change the political system and get the US out of the rut they are in.

Are you sure Donald Trump will not win, just like Brexit was never a possibility?

I like preparing for the unbelievable just in case both events actually happen. President Donald Trump, First Lady Melania Trump; a Brexit that leads to a smaller less powerful EU.

Ever heard of the Electoral College? — Garth

#34 Look Out Below? on 06.14.16 at 7:37 pm

“That means (home buyers have) got skin in the game, and that means if (your house) comes down in price at some point then you also lose part of that,” said OECD boss Angel Gurría.

————————————–

“Part of that.” Not all of it.

#35 BobC on 06.14.16 at 7:38 pm

#4 Ed
I read it differently. I hear him saying go to cash and wait it out.

#12
Unhinged
I think they will get out of negative rate EU bonds into the dollar. The dollar will go up and gold will drop. I’m waiting on $800 an ounce.
I think Hillary will be good for Wall Street and bad for Main Street. Stocks up and gold down.
Trump will be good for Main Street and bad for Wall Street. Gold? Who the hell knows. All bets off,

#36 Catalyst on 06.14.16 at 7:50 pm

So it was a buyers market in Vancouver 2012? I guess I must have missed that…

#37 Dick Cockshott on 06.14.16 at 7:53 pm

” The correction on the horizon can see prices correct quickly in the arena of roughly 20-23% over the course of the next 2 years.”

Such precise forecasting. Would love to know where his numbers come from.

#38 Damifino on 06.14.16 at 7:59 pm

#3 Mark

“What a bizarre world we live in, where we can’t even trust the ‘news’ or otherwise reputable professionals to provide accurate information.
———————————–

That’s why the greaterfool comments section thrives.

#39 AK on 06.14.16 at 8:01 pm

“In nine days there’s the Brexit thing, with four polls yesterday showing the ‘Leave’ side is gaining momentum fast.”
===========================

According to the bookies, the ‘Remain’ camp is @ 65%. I believe the bookies before any useless polls…

#40 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 06.14.16 at 8:07 pm

#29 Julia on 06.14.16 at 7:28 pm

Mortgage debt does NOT include home equity lines as these are considered consumer debt? Is there anywhere that shows the amount of those?
A lot of people converted their mortgage to home equity loans with the rise in values.
——————————————–
They are easy to spot…. look at the cars in the driveways.

#41 The Dude on 06.14.16 at 8:07 pm

Just keep saving and praying for a price correction right Garth? Meanwhile, nothing much helping the supply and demand curve for renters in Vancouver.

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/video/surreal-estate-part-one?utm_source=vicefbca

Vice? Seriously? — Garth

#42 Andrew Woburn on 06.14.16 at 8:10 pm

FWIW I chatted with a lady from Missouri over the weekend. She said her solid Republican-voting family were pretty much Trump supporters during the primaries. However, since the judge fiasco and his failure to manage his mouth even after he scored the nomination, they are increasingly doubtful they will even vote this time.

#43 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 06.14.16 at 8:12 pm

#34 Look Out Below? on 06.14.16 at 7:37 pm

“That means (home buyers have) got skin in the game, and that means if (your house) comes down in price at some point then you also lose part of that,” said OECD boss Angel Gurría.
————————————–
“Part of that.” Not all of it.
—————————————-
People will be very sad when they lose 20% of the value in their homes. The recent buyers especially. Or all the ones maxed on their HELOC’s? Yup! Upside-down smiles!

#44 Brazil ex-pat on 06.14.16 at 8:13 pm

#11 Doug t on 06.14.16 at 6:43 pm
Who is worse Trump or Clinton? That is a hell of a question when you consider they are both megalomaniacs with nothing even remotely positive to bring to the idiot office. Both are destructive in different ways – so get ready because either way the outcome of this election will have worldwide negative ripple effect.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ask yourself which one of the two has been directly or in-directly involved in the invasion of other countries around the world and you will have your answer as to which one of the two is better.

#45 Lea Pfau on 06.14.16 at 8:15 pm

Torontonians: is this true? The 401 is busier than the 101 here in Los Angeles.

#46 Andrew Woburn on 06.14.16 at 8:19 pm

There are almost as many shades of opinion on China as there are on gold but the following view is showing up more frequently, especially from people who actually know China. I don’t see much coverage of these points in our media. It goes a long way to explain the level of capital flight.

“Last year an article by David Shambaugh appeared in The Wall Street Journal on what he called “The Coming Chinese Crack-up.” Shambaugh, who has since developed the article into a book entitled China’s Future, gave five reasons for thinking that the Chinese regime suffers from systemic and ultimately fatal weaknesses: 1) The wealthiest Chinese citizens are parking their money abroad and are thinking of leaving; 2) there is increasing repression that Shambaugh considered to be a sign of weakness, not strength; 3) the regime was ideologically bankrupt; 4) It could not deal with the massive problem of corruption that is rooted in the authoritarian system; and 5) the reform process had reached an impasse, meaning that if the regime couldn’t adapt and modernize, it would fail.”

This is a point of view around which there is a growing consensus among a number of China watchers. Minxin Pei has written that “The Communist Party’s post-Tiananmen survival strategy is exhausted, and its new strategy is likely accelerating the party’s demise.” And Andrew Nathan, who in the past has written about China’s “authoritarian resilience,” now writes that the Chinese regime “behaves as if it faces an existential threat.”

http://worldaffairsjournal.org/article/china-xis-legitimacy-balance?utm_source=World+Affairs+Newsletter&utm_campaign=3914f7ba11-June_14th_2016_WNN6_14_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f83b38c5c7-3914f7ba11-294646793

#47 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 06.14.16 at 8:19 pm

#37 Dick Cockshott on 06.14.16 at 7:53 pm

” The correction on the horizon can see prices correct quickly in the arena of roughly 20-23% over the course of the next 2 years.”

Such precise forecasting. Would love to know where his numbers come from
————————————–
His numbers are conservative, obviously. Remember 2008? Houses in 604 lost anywhere from 15-20% in only 8 months. Of course, prices rebounded just a quick after SLIRP kicked in. (Super Low Interest Rate Policy).

Fast forward 8 years… rates can’t go any lower… prices can’t go much higher. The sound advice? SELL.

#48 tundra pete on 06.14.16 at 8:30 pm

Just flying down the #1 on my hog and trying to figure out how to post a selfie on facebook. Damn these phones are hard to use on the hog.

#49 For those about to flop... on 06.14.16 at 8:30 pm

#37 Dick Cockshott on 06.14.16 at 7:53 pm
” The correction on the horizon can see prices correct quickly in the arena of roughly 20-23% over the course of the next 2 years.”

Such precise forecasting. Would love to know where his numbers come from.

//////////////////////////////

Hi Dick Cockshott ,welcome to the blog.

Shouldn’t you have made your debut during the “It’s Coming” posting…

M41BC

#50 Keith in Calgary on 06.14.16 at 8:32 pm

Garth cannot handle the truth.

My comment about how 2 of my leftist coworkers said that Trump was right this week………and that Trump had won the election due to the tragedy in Orlando gt deleted.

1984……LOL !!!

You are a caricature of a human being and the reason we fight.

No comment of yours was deleted. Perhaps it died of embarrassment en route. — Garth

#51 ww1 on 06.14.16 at 8:35 pm

#45 Lea Pfau on 06.14.16 at 8:15 pm
Torontonians: is this true? The 401 is busier than the 101 here in Los Angeles.

====================================

Google is your friend :
http://oppositelock.kinja.com/the-busiest-highway-in-north-america-1559577839

#52 Grey Dog on 06.14.16 at 8:36 pm

Armoofcat, A Sikh wedding in a mosque? Don’t Sikh’s go to temple?

#53 For those about to flop... on 06.14.16 at 8:37 pm

#185 conan on 06.14.16 at 5:07 pm
RE: #177 For those about to flop… on 06.14.16 at 4:06 pm

That rock is blowing my mind. The physics alone should have plowed that boulder right through the wall. For it to be perched like that………..shit……wow.
Who built that house? The Count of Celje?

////////////////////////////

Hey Conan,sorry for the delayed response I had a date with the tooth Doctor.

The thing that jumped out at me is why is the dent in the ground a few feet to to right of the window.

Maybe there was another rock…

M41BC

#54 Balmuto on 06.14.16 at 8:42 pm

#47 Give us this Blog our daily Garth

“Fast forward 8 years… rates can’t go any lower… prices can’t go much higher.”

How many times have we heard THAT one over the last 8 years?

#55 Bytor the Snow Dog on 06.14.16 at 8:50 pm

Yes, the shooter was an “ISIS loving nutjob”. Key point is NUTJOB.

I don’t ever accept the spin.

No “terrorism” here.

#56 conan on 06.14.16 at 8:51 pm

I am expecting Brexit now…… I thought Cameron would get the sales job done. Convinced he wants to go as well. They could have announced a new clause that would allow England to leave 5 years from now. That would have saved the deal.. So simple to do that.

So bank on Brexit……….. negative interest rates…….a debt crisis……..and then hopefully some kind of economic innovation that saves the planet from eating itself. Our problems will not be solved by a computer app or an orange cat living on some bald guys head.

#57 rainclouds on 06.14.16 at 8:56 pm

Yesterday Motorhome sales tanking,

Today….. Autos:

http://bloombergtv.ca/2016-05-20/news/industries/manufacturing/slowing-car-sales-point-to-gathering-softness-in-canada-economy/

#58 Tony on 06.14.16 at 8:58 pm

Re: #5 X on 06.14.16 at 6:20 pm

I can assuredly tell you they’ll increase down payments to protect the feeble imbeciles from being able to buy and at the same time it will save the taxpayers a fortune when the whole thing implodes.

#59 Nomad on 06.14.16 at 8:58 pm

Today the german 10Y bond yield went negative.
Curious times.

The 10y yield keeps grinding lower. The bond market is betting on deflation in many countries.

Interesting blog post:
“1970’s and early 1980’s, the idea of deflation is heretical, almost revolutionary”

http://www.baskinwealth.com/thinking-about-negative-interest-rates/

#60 Jake Stephenson on 06.14.16 at 9:01 pm

You know what will make that 20-23% housing price drop even more scary when it happens, it will mean a lost decade or longer like Japan.

Real estate is toast. The nest 10 to 20 years will be a depression for Canadian real estate.

Just like the TSX was 15,000 in 2007 and now is 13,884. It is 9 years later.

The real difference is housing eats away people’s pockets with annual 4% to 6% increases compounding home insurance, property taxes, utilities, H.S.T. annually on top of expenses, repairs and maintenance and big closing costs when selling from lawyer fees to real estate commissions+H.S.T. that can easily add up to 6%+. This is if your house is 100% pad for with no mortgage, interest costs are hundreds of thousands of dollars after decades of paying.

Good luck with real estate n coming years. You will need it. We own a modest house paid for after 15 years because it is a place to live and not for speculation and leverage with debt using it as a piggy bank and borrowing machine.

#61 Ronaldo on 06.14.16 at 9:04 pm

BREXIT – The Movie

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0

#62 Bullion Licker on 06.14.16 at 9:07 pm

Starting to be a fan of Kias

Donald wins in a landslide, if breathing, especially after wiki leaks Hillary’s email courtesy of Vlad.

electoral college, even with Diebold counting votes like Stalin, can’t sway it enough. Possibly in a tight race, not this time.

#63 Tony on 06.14.16 at 9:14 pm

Re: #45 Lea Pfau on 06.14.16 at 8:15 pm

The 401 is busier because there’s no minimum speed law limits in Canada. The drivers in the GTA and Toronto are worst than the drivers in L.A.

#64 Smoking Man on 06.14.16 at 9:17 pm

DELETED

#65 Brexit background on 06.14.16 at 9:18 pm

Varoufakis and Chomsky debate on Europe in NYC.

Who and how really rules Europe, from the Marshall plan until today. How US needed a strong German economy and promised the political leadership to France after WW2.

https://youtu.be/szIGZVrSAyc

#66 Not A Doomer on 06.14.16 at 9:20 pm

Garth like what’s going on bro?

Your full of doom and gloom brother!

Didn’t know you were a prepper.

All I know is this world is insane most days now and guess what Garth, all I have control of doing my very best each and every day and enjoy my life in the hear and now before fate checks me out.

Cheer up brother, smile find the goodness search for it pray for it cause no one is getting out of here alive and that’s a fact so why worry have a cold lemonade.

TTYL Bro,

Love ya!

#67 Joe2.0 on 06.14.16 at 9:36 pm

Change the subject here for a bit.

Canada doesn’t pay ransom to Philippino kidnappers and Trudeau says we will not pay ransom, hence the kidnappers chop the victims head off.

So does that mean if Trudeau was to get kidnapped they wouldn’t pay the ransom?

#68 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.14.16 at 9:37 pm

“…house prices, which are rapidly rising in Vancouver and Toronto…

even the OECD knows that the real estate prices in YVR and YYZ are stupid

#69 Marius on 06.14.16 at 9:39 pm

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/06/14/Vancouver-Foreign-Ownership-Sales-Ban/

Obsessed. — Garth

#70 Angel on 06.14.16 at 9:41 pm

FYI Garth! From the big guy!

Govern yourself, for my people do not need to be governed… Follow my commandments and rest your worries with me, for I am who I am the only purest of Love, that is my essence.

#71 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.14.16 at 9:41 pm

Despite plenty of evidence to disprove such

no such evidence

Google better

#72 For those about to flop... on 06.14.16 at 9:45 pm

Brexit/ Euro 2016 update.

The next big Brexit swing won’t happen until Thursday.

In a twist of fate England plays Wales on this day roughly a week before the vote.

These two countries have around 90% of the population with mainly England being in a sour mood.

Northern Ireland play on the same day but with only 3% of the British population they are pretty much a non factor unless it is a tight one.

There will be on more round of games before the vote.

If England loses hang onto your hamster…

M41BC

#73 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.14.16 at 9:45 pm

Gold is looking REALLY good these days…

damn back to 2010 prices

that’s gooder than I expected

#74 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.14.16 at 9:47 pm

we can’t even trust the ‘news’ or otherwise reputable professionals to provide accurate information

personally the news that I trust most is from unemployed engineers w 2 degrees

#75 Get Back Loretta on 06.14.16 at 9:53 pm

Blog wasn’t all about Millennials today, but you …

Gotta Love Millennials :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLpE1Pa8vvI

#76 Smoking Man on 06.14.16 at 9:56 pm

For all you dogs that egnor and loath me. Note the second last line. Oh for laymen, Cable is the what traders call the british pound.

Boom $$$$

#33 Smoking Man on 06.12.16 at 6:36 pm
The Bilderbergs and Divos crowed must be in all out panic mode.

With Donald certain to become the 45 president because this mornings act of barbarianizm. Hillary can’t even say radical Islam. Pheniox LGBT community has just backed Trump. Others to follow. Most of victims where Latino. Watch support come from that community.

Brexit. What do you think the british are thinking about open EU boarders after today.

Short Cable dogs.

Ah the globalists? What to do now

#77 conan on 06.14.16 at 9:56 pm

RE : #64 Smoking Man on 06.14.16 at 9:17 pm

LOL @ Smoking Man ” avec le chapeau de papier d’aluminium”. One needs to experience a SNAFU situation to know that bad instructions are part of any crisis.

These people were told to take their wounded to one end of the street. There they were told to go back to the Pulse as that was where ambulances and private vehicles were doing the pick ups.

This is not a hoax…… and orange cat on head guy is not going to win. Garth is right on this one.

Peace out bro.

#78 Hockey Nut #1! on 06.14.16 at 9:58 pm

Go Jets Go!
Go Jets Go!

Man I miss watching my Winnipeg Jets team play, cant wait for the draft and the new season.

Go Jets Go!
Go Jets Go!

Yah Baby!

Best wishes Garth!

#79 Steerage Bilge on 06.14.16 at 9:58 pm

#66 Not A Doomer on 06.14.16 at 9:20 pm

Garth like what’s going on bro?

Your full of doom and gloom brother!

Didn’t know you were a prepper.

All I know is this world is insane most days now and guess what Garth, all I have control of doing my very best each and every day and enjoy my life in the hear and now before fate checks me out.

Cheer up brother, smile find the goodness search for it pray for it cause no one is getting out of here alive and that’s a fact so why worry have a cold lemonade.

TTYL Bro,

Love ya!

Gartho is a total prepper.!!… search the archives

#80 Sheane Wallace on 06.14.16 at 10:09 pm

Let’s be clear:

1. There will be no offloading of risks to the banks. The banks are government sponsored oligopolies and will continue to charge the idiots who keep their money there with higher and higher fees. Because they can.
Courtesy of the idiot at the helm of BOC

2. There will be no significant decline in house prices as CMHC will quickly go bankrupt and once the panic start spreading it will be a quick and fast crash with no bottom in sight. The whole ‘economy’ will go down the drain.

It is already too late to escape the inevitable, any housing correction short of 70 % + for To and Van is meaningless and the idiots in power will prefer to provide additional guarantees to keep blowing the gas bag as they are not sure they can handle graceful deflation of arguably the biggest credit bubble in the history of the housing markets in the world of all time.

Instead I bet on 3,4,5 million dollar houses in Van and To and the absolute destruction of the CAD, absolute and utter destruction. Bottom line, it is currently ‘worth’ 1/100 of a decorative brick in a crappy shack in To and Van. Soon will be 1/1000.

Cheers to the savers and all GIC holders. Don’t forget, Winny and Chrisie will take care of you with their new pension plans. and enjoy that 0.5 % intreet on your money, while you can.

#81 Cheeky Bandit on 06.14.16 at 10:09 pm

Guys..the ‘summer swoon’ is back and the seasonal softening of a market peaking in June has happened…so what…this is all normal. As it has already been pointed out..Brexit’ means nothing….Trump…Muslims…all media hype to misdirect you away from the obvious inadequacy of our new selfie prince and his gang of bumblers. The market will climb a wall of worry until the end of time. If anyone thinks that Islam is going to drag us back into the 7th century any time soon …well thats just nutz.

Let the worry be shouldered by those who really do have a problem….the guys in government who have borrowed zillions to spend on themselves but as a peripheral issue sent the finances of millions of Canadians straight to hell.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-nightmare-housing-scenarios-good-reason-for-government-caution

There will be no rate increase, the government can’t afford it.

#82 Former Bookie on 06.14.16 at 10:11 pm

#39

The bookies are at 65% remain because a TON of money came on remain during the early stages of the referendum build up when Remain was looking strong. Momentum is now massively in favour of Leave and the vast majority of bets coming now are on Leave. However, the bets being placed on Leave aren’t for as much money as was previously put on Remain, hence the bookies have Remain as the favourite still, to encourage more money to come on Leave and thus reduce their liability. Don’t be surprised if Leave are soon favourites.

I think I read something like 80% of bets these days are on Leave.

#83 Mike on 06.14.16 at 10:13 pm

76 Smoking Man on 06.14.16 at 9:56 pm
For all you dogs that egnor and loath me. Note the second last line. Oh for laymen, Cable is the what traders call the british pound.

Boom $$$$

#33 Smoking Man on 06.12.16 at 6:36 pm
The Bilderbergs and Divos crowed must be in all out panic mode.

With Donald certain to become the 45 president because this mornings act of barbarianizm. Hillary can’t even say radical Islam. Pheniox LGBT community has just backed Trump. Others to follow. Most of victims where Latino. Watch support come from that community.

Brexit. What do you think the british are thinking about open EU boarders after today.

Short Cable dogs.

Ah the globalists? What to do now

Ahh lets see now, oh yeah according to history ummm

WW III ?

#84 Jimmy on 06.14.16 at 10:15 pm

SM, that video link was very interesting.
I noticed the Dunkin Donuts right next to Pulse in other news. This video does indeed show a victim being carried in the wrong direction. WTF ???

#85 Blacksheep on 06.14.16 at 10:16 pm

“Anyone remember the summer of 2008?”- Mo
————————————-
Why yes, I do.

Here is my comment on Greater Fool, Blacksheep # 9, circa July/7/2008

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008/07/06/there-is-no-market/

“Just sold my family home in Langley, had to adjust the price from 460k to 410k and do 8k in renovations to get it sold, I honestly feel we got lucky to get out. paid 216k 12 yrs ago so we are fine.

I am telling any close friends and family to get out, if possible.
I feel house prices will not be this high again for many years , if again in my life time due to aging baby boomers and the rising cost of commuting. While selling many people asked were we moving to? when I told them we were renting for a bit to watch the market, the common response was the market cant drop!

People are in denial,

they think it can’t happen here. The farther your home is from the core of Van. the more it will drop. My realtor is a family friend, once he new of our plans he confided in us, that getting out was great idea, as a correction was long over due. Made money on the increase, and going to save money on the decrease. The sheeple are to busy watching tv to see what’s coming and it will cost many dearly.”- Blacksheep
—————————————
I sound so naive.

Here is part of what Garth said that day.

“In Toronto and Vancouver, sales are falling off a cliff, which likely means prices will deteriorate by the end of the year. Home sales in the GTA are down 18% over this time last year, and crashed 9% last month alone. In Vancouver, despite the hype of the 2010 Olympics, the situation is even more dire. Sales have crumbed by 43% in a year, and the number of people trying to bail has grown steadily, with listings up 18%.”- Garth
————————————–
Today’s blog is causing some Deja vu (glitch in the Matrix).

Once gain, I find my home value up 50% (various reasons) from when I bought back into the market 2.5 yrs ago. Wife and I have already discussed bailing again, but we’ve seen this movie before.

If you want to know were RE is going, ask yourself, how would the system, want this to play out?

Remember….

They pulled the levers before, don’t think they won’t do it again in an attempt to control the outcome.

#86 For those about to flop... on 06.14.16 at 10:19 pm

DELETED

#87 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.14.16 at 10:25 pm

RE: #131 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 06.14.16 at 10:00 am

Spoken like a true realtor. BTW, the preponderance of Canada is empty. — Garth

True and yet on so many accounts uninhabitable to most. I suppose were there less motivation to live so close to the 49th one might choose instead to save a few shekels and move closer to the North Pole where demand is not quite so high and prices are consequently much lower.

But that is aside my point.

There may come a time of no demand for gold. There may come a time of no demand for US Greenbacks. There may come a time of no demand for granite, stainless and hardwood. Just like Blackberry the demand for all those things and more may wane for any one of a multitude of potential reasons. But land… land will always enjoy a demand second only to food, water and air.

#88 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.14.16 at 10:31 pm

And it’s; REALTOR® <- (don’t forget the little ® thing. And capitals, we like it in capitals)

KLENEX®
XEROX®
REALTOR®

};-)

#89 Smoking Goof on 06.14.16 at 10:32 pm

#84 Jimmy on 06.14.16 at 10:15 pm

SM, that video link was very interesting.
I noticed the Dunkin Donuts right next to Pulse in other news. This video does indeed show a victim being carried in the wrong direction. WTF ???

Yeah, it was all clearly a false flag operation ordered by Putin to help Trump get elected. Plain as day.

#90 Smoking Man on 06.14.16 at 10:35 pm

DELETED

#91 Grantmi on 06.14.16 at 10:41 pm

#190 Bill on 06.14.16 at 6:30 pm
Ohoh

https://youtu.be/9YeAVr4Q0TU

Holy Crap! Ozzie is saying SELL SELL SELL!!!!

He must be out of the real estate market now, if he’ saying SELL SELL SELL!!!

#92 For those about to flop... on 06.14.16 at 10:44 pm

DELETED

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.16 at 10:48 pm

@#88 Devils Advocate
“And it’s; REALTOR® <- (don’t forget the little ® thing. And capitals, we like it in capitals)"
******************************************

Ahahahahahahahahahahaa.
How DARE we!
I'm just curious. Did you pay "extra" for the number "88" since it appeals to some of your potential clients?

PS. Since even you have admitted its now not a good time to buy…..do you unhook your phone and tell every potential client NOT to buy right now?
Turn all business away because anyone that buys is going to lose money in the short term and possibly the long term?
Or do you just send them to another , younger, less scrupulous realtor that needs to make his/her BMW lease payments?
All so YOU can sleep at night…..?

#94 Smoking Man on 06.14.16 at 10:48 pm

Deleted

Sorry Gartho but I call it like I see it. And I bet how I see it and I do OK.

But yes that post had the potentially to cause a shit storm on here. Good judgment on your part.

I take no offence in the delete, but I meant every word.

Masses have been fkd and that was the reason why.

#95 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.14.16 at 10:49 pm

#80 Sheane Wallace on 06.14.16 at 10:09 pm

well that was certainly depressing…

#96 JacqueShellacque on 06.14.16 at 10:52 pm

Re Trump and Brexit: I have no particular opinion on either, but I do know they both portend an end to the age of political correctness as we know it. Our elites have failed, and people are not in the mood for their platitudes. For this reason, contrary to Garth, I think Trump has a real shot in November. He’ll do well in the midwest, and I think the Dems know that (witness their shrill attacks on him, even by the sitting President, something unprecedented in modern elections). People are pissed, and it’s time some for some topics that have been off limits for a while (*cough, cough*, immigration) to be discussed openly again. Another decade of “move along, nothing to see here” leadership from those in power could lead to real violence.

#97 Smoking Man on 06.14.16 at 10:55 pm

#89 Smoking Goof on 06.14.16 at 10:32 pm
#84 Jimmy on 06.14.16 at 10:15 pm

SM, that video link was very interesting.
I noticed the Dunkin Donuts right next to Pulse in other news. This video does indeed show a victim being carried in the wrong direction. WTF ???

Yeah, it was all clearly a false flag operation ordered by Putin to help Trump get elected. Plain as day.
………………

Lets hope it was a false flag. because if it was real, shit load broken humans that will never in there life time recover from this.

I’m leaning toward tin foil myself. Have you ever seen the grief of loved ones when they lose some one young.

I haven’t seen a video yet on msm from grieving witness that even come close the day my Nephew died.

Maybe Americans grieve different than Nictonites.

I d

#98 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.14.16 at 11:01 pm

Let’s face it Canada is a popular place.

Once IN Canada, Vancouver is a popular place.

Kelowna is popular.

Hell, for some The Big Smoke is even popular.

What do they have in common? They’re all in one of the Best Countries in the World. Yet as AWESOME as Canada is, for many, the climate SUCKS. Closer to the 49th is tolerable. Vancouver, Kelowna, Toronto are all about as close as you can get to the equator while still being in Canada.

We have good reason to be proud. We’ve got something in high demand. HIGH demand. Look at us. Look at the alternatives. Where would you rather be? What country in the world would you bet on?

The secret is out. The boarders are open. Just as much as any other, we ARE FOR SALE and as long as we are the highest bidder takes it.

I don’t set the price. You don’t set the price. THE MARKET sets the price. Be it currency, gold or blood the market will pay what it must to get what it wants.

No surprise here.

Toronto is 709 km south of Kelowna. — Garth

#99 Long Branch Apprentice on 06.14.16 at 11:06 pm

#89 Smoking Goof,

Do you even know what that means on the street? Or in prison? If some one calls you a goof, you have to fight. Don’t throw that word around unless you know what it means.

You can tell by how pretty much everyone on this blog writes that they’ve never engaged in the fisticuffs in real life.

Maybe that’s how you’ve started such a community on here Garth, all those wrinkly boomers in diabetic socks come on here to pent all that frustration that little blue pills are designed to fix.

Rode my motorcycle across Hwy 7 and down Markham Rd today, just because. Lots of commercial RE for Lease signs.

Canada’s economy consists of Space Storage units, nail salons, money marts and physio clinics.

Thanks for the great inheritance Boomers.

Bowie, Prince, Ali, you’re all fading…

#100 Gramps on 06.14.16 at 11:07 pm

If Canadian personal debt is higher than the states, but their federal debt is higher, does that balance out?
Years ago all people talked about was government debt, and how fast it was growing. Now after years of quantitive easing, not a sound. I’m confused.

#101 Ronaldo on 06.14.16 at 11:14 pm

”There may come a time of no demand for gold. There may come a time of no demand for US Greenbacks. There may come a time of no demand for granite, stainless and hardwood. Just like Blackberry the demand for all those things and more may wane for any one of a multitude of potential reasons.”
—————————————————————
And there may come a time when there is no demand for realtors. What a time that will be. Unfortunately, I don’t think it will be in the very near future.

#102 Ronaldo on 06.14.16 at 11:21 pm

#98 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 06.14.16 at 11:01 pm

”Let’s face it Canada is a popular place.

Once IN Canada, Vancouver is a popular place.

Kelowna is popular.”
———————————————————

Kelowna is popular for 3 months of the year. After that its like, ‘last one leaving town please close the gate’.

#103 NoName on 06.14.16 at 11:22 pm

#177 For those about to flop… on 06.14.16 at 4:06 pm

good news not my cousin house.

#104 BS on 06.14.16 at 11:24 pm

#85 Blacksheep on 06.14.16 at 10:16 pm

…If you want to know were RE is going, ask yourself, how would the system, want this to play out?

Remember….

They pulled the levers before, don’t think they won’t do it again in an attempt to control the outcome.

Of course they will try. It just won’t work. The part you miss is the levers only work once. Those levers were pulled in the US, Spain, Japan and Iceland as well during their housing bubbles and the levers stopped working. Why would Canada’s levers work better a second time when all others failed?

#105 Mo Povoden on 06.14.16 at 11:25 pm

Hi Folks,

Garth, I appreciate you folding my “open letter” into your commentary. As with all “excerpts”, naysayers, cynics & critics alike must realize this was an excerpt from a larger writing directed to my clients. But Garth did indeed nail it on the head with his choice of material to cut and choose from; regardless of “context” and “qualification”.

Rather than recoil, understand that my geographic area of expertise – that of Whistler – sees a tremendous amount of foreign investment and interest. Therefore, many of the properties here are held as secondary and/or tertiary investment properties rather than “personal homes”. My “open letter” also made mention for those who utilize their properties as actual “homes” to be wary of attractive equity based LOCs and the like currently being offered.

It’s super easy to sit back and criticize (especially when the target is realtors LOL). But I’m no apologist in this matter. When you’ve got a diversified portfolio of assets which include “investment properties” in my localized area of expertise, my advice – in black and white – is sell. I can’t stop the feeding frenzy that’s happening right now, that’s not in my control. But when I have clients pondering the notion of “making good” on one or more of their assets here in Whistler, it’s my duty to make the call. Just as you’ll find in the stock market – the SELL alert is just that – a recommendation to sell. Funny enough? There’s always someone on the receiving end to make the BUY. The choice is independent and very individual. Choose your perspective before you engage!

As mentioned, being captious is easy – it’s typically the path of least resistance (and therefore, often the most popular given any collective). It’s also the least constructive. What’s more is sticking your neck out there trying to give good advice to clients you care about rather than worrying about a buck to be made in the now. Sure sure, long enough timelines, equity growth is on a positive trajectory, anyone can state this – fine. That’s the macro perspective; one also has to look at the micro level to see the undulations that sum total the overall trajectory. My advice to clients who work with property ownership in Whistler as an investment is to work with these undulations to their benefit. Plain and simple. Thus far I’m very grateful & fortunate to have amassed the client base I have; and I thank them for their loyalty time and time again.

My excerpt wasn’t a sales pitch. It was an opinion. And you know what they say about opinions – everyone’s got one and just like that anatomical district opinions are so likened to, they definitely “stink” if they’re not yours. If you don’t like my opinion, that’s fine – I’ll still go to bed at night knowing I put my word out to the people I care about.

If you’d like to criticize that, by all means feel free to do so.

Yours Truly,
Maurice “Mo” Povoden
[email protected]

#106 TRT on 06.14.16 at 11:38 pm

#80 Shaene Wallace

You get it!

I’m preparing a move down to the USA when our loonie goes out for the long term… The Canadian retirees will take it up the wazooo the most as their pensions will be in worthless loonies.

No option left for the corrupt officials. Can’t raise rates and can’t afford a housing bust. Only option is to keep increasing immigration and tanking the loonie.

Loving it! Witnessing, live, the destruction of a country!

#107 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.14.16 at 11:47 pm

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.16 at 10:48 pm

Seriously, it is never a bad time to make a well informed real estate purchase.

“Toronto is 709 km south of Kelowna.” — Garth

I’d move there but… I like snow skiing… on hills… I mean mountains. Well that’s not all actually. And you prove my point because, from what I understand, Toronto is bigger than Vancouver and Kelowna combined. So yes people in Canada gravitate closer to the equator than the North Pole.

#108 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.14.16 at 11:50 pm

#102 Ronaldo on 06.14.16 at 11:21 pm

THAT is your opinion. Local demographics prove there are a great and growing number who don’t agree with you.

#109 macroman on 06.14.16 at 11:57 pm

Toronto is 709 km south of Kelowna. — Garth

That much closer to Hell?

#110 Presumptive President Trump on 06.15.16 at 12:05 am

There was a national crisis. Trump was the first to respond, at 4:30am. That means his people woke him up to let him know about the shooting – just like the President.

Trump immediately tweeted out his sympathy etc. Then hours later, started talking about solutions. That’s leadership.

Meanwhile, Hillary didn’t say anything until morning, and even started her message with “I just woke up to the news”. Her aides didn’t even bother waking her from yet another one of her long sleeps. That’s not presidential behaviour.

The next day, Trump delivered the speech that Obama should have given.

And now, a few days later, Hillary and Obama are finally saying similar things to what Trump said on Sunday.
So you tell me, who the hell are they saying isn’t Presidential? Surely the person who doesn’t bother waking up, or the person who umms and errs through a statement of meaningless platitudes is not Presidential.

Trump is already the President of the United States.

#111 macroman on 06.15.16 at 12:07 am

Mo Po, 105, nice retort. You seem like a straight shooter, ya know, for a realtor.

Say, if you’re playing any golf with Lance Lundy up in your parts, say hi from Hillview.

#112 A box in the Sky on 06.15.16 at 12:22 am

#27 VancouverBrit on 06.14.16 at 7:19 pm

As a Brit living in Canada it’s quite a simple desire for the Leave party that seems to get over complicated by the Remain party.

We simply want two things:
——————————————-

You’re a piece of human garbage. So it’s alright for you to come to Canada to earn a better living and make a better life for yourself and your family but how dare those peasants come into the UK to do the same for their families, right? People with nothing risking it all to make their lives just a little better.

You’re disgusting.

#113 Smoking Man on 06.15.16 at 12:30 am

These guys had vision.
……

“No freeman shall ever be debarred the use of arms,” Thomas Jefferson wrote in the first draft of the Virginia Constitution.

Without the Second Amendment, the people are reduced to a permanent slave class who are powerless to resist the monopoly of force held by an out-of-control government.

#114 Chris on 06.15.16 at 12:59 am

I love how he knows it’s going to be 20-23%. If he’s going to guess, what happened to a good old round number like 20-30%? Will it go down? Inevitably yes. Question is will it go up more before it does? A 30% drop in GV is still a net gain. I didn’t buy there 8 years ago. I invested the money and made nice gains over the time. I had the flexibility to move and bought elsewhere. I don’t regret it in the least but there’s no denying that the doomsayers then were wrong. The landlord wanted to sell me our rental for 420k. It’s probably worth 1.5-2M. Even if it dropped by half, whoever bought it still doubled their money.

#115 waiting on the westcoast on 06.15.16 at 1:22 am

Toronto is 709 km south of Kelowna. — Garth

And it’s colder than Kelowna… ;-)

#116 waiting on the westcoast on 06.15.16 at 1:28 am

#106 TRT says… “No option left for the corrupt officials. Can’t raise rates and can’t afford a housing bust. Only option is to keep increasing immigration and tanking the loonie.

Loving it! Witnessing, live, the destruction of a country!”

This makes me sad. But I agree that the government will seek to alleviate tanking the economy by devaluing the currency. I am fortunate that my investments are in the US but it is going to be tough on the country. Ironically, it’s just a different form of crucifying the country. Crashing the housing market is just quicker….

#117 WUL on 06.15.16 at 1:42 am

Our tolerant host has belaboured two points:

1. Do not rely on a one asset investment strategy; and
2. The rich are diversified.

Many Albertans went long on real estate. That is not the single asset. The single asset is oil. So their employment (X2 for some working couples), pensions, real estate investments and surrounding economic well being all depend on one asset. Black gold.

In The Mac, I roomed with a Dane employed with an oil sands major. He made astoundingly good coin on a mobile up here, sold high and bought and moved to a ranchette near Edmonton. About 15 months ago he told me he was contemplating buying 2 rental condos in Edmonton, to double or triple down on the price of oil. I told him there was a pathetic place he should visit to augment his thinking. He read one of Garth’s posts and said to me the next day, “Boy, does he ever hate real estate.”

Whoosh!! He totally missed the point. I have not seen him in a long time. His divorce intervened.

You would be floored by the number of people I am meeting up here with 2 or 3 destroyed homes. Dumb.

Turning to the second point Garth tries to hammer home. Actually, I was thinking about making a political point borne out of my views on the Presidential election to the south. I have ruined too many social engagements by discussing politics and religion, so I will largely refrain. Just a tidbit. It is plain that the rich own the Republican party. They diversify. I agree with that. Were they too dumb to hedge with a big stake in the Democrats?

I doubt it. That is why I laugh at the suggestion that Obama nixed the Keystone XL Pipeline because of the enviro crowd and a desire for a green legacy. Yeah, Tom Steyer and Darryl Hannah swung the oval office.

Right.

#118 The Dude on 06.15.16 at 2:01 am

Just keep saving and praying for a price correction right Garth? Meanwhile, nothing much helping the supply and demand curve for renters in Vancouver.

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/video/surreal-estate-part-one?utm_source=vicefbca

Vice? Seriously? — Garth
————————————

Sorry, my Reader’s Digest subscription isn’t mobile friendly.

#119 Blacksheep on 06.15.16 at 2:11 am

BS # 104,

“Those levers were pulled in the US, Spain, Japan and Iceland as well during their housing bubbles and the levers stopped working”
—————————————
So…why didn’t canadian RE correct hard, 8 years ago, just like all others mentioned?

No, were not special, but obviously different in some relevant way.

We’ve ALL already lost, 30% of our real world wealth measured in US $. It looks globally like rates are going nowhere but down, for the foreseeable future, cause growth simply sucks.

If forced to chose between collapsing or inflating, the system will pick the later. Imagine what a 60 cent dollar would do to our RE values?

Buy the way….

Lots of people talk about selling, I actually went though this 8 years ago.

#120 The American on 06.15.16 at 2:55 am

Geeeeeeezus H. Christ on a cross, people! Get a grip already! Donald Drumpf will never be President. As much as I hate to agree with the piece of shit that he is, Jeb Bush was spot-on when he said Drumpf will never be President. He selected those words carefully, knowing full well how the American political and election process works, specifically the Electoral College. The votes are not there and the votes will not be there. Ain’t gonna happen, folks. Like I’ve been saying, everyone in unison say, “Madam President.” As a Congressional Delegate, I can attest the deal is already done, no matter what your political affiliation or preference of candidate. From now until election day, its all about ratings and getting the people riled and ruffled. It’s about bringing new platforms to light, and it’s about exploration of the new initiatives to come in the forthcoming administration. That’s all. Nothing more. So, I’ll be the first to break it to all of you that you can rest better knowing Americans are not, nor will they be, moving to Canada upon the election of Hillary’s liberal path.

As for the Americans who read this blog, you should know I began as a Bernie Delegate, and now I’m a Hillary Delegate. Why you ask? Because in this election I am a one-issue voter. And that issue is not opening the Seventh Seal and ushering in the goddamn apocalypse.

#121 jane 24 on 06.15.16 at 3:25 am

Garth you referred to the UK Referendum as being about ‘Nationalism, Britishness and Anti-immigration, you are right but let me put it into a context.

Currently as part of the 28 member EU, British law is secondary to EU law and it many cases this doesn’t work for us. We often want what is right for Britain and not what is right for Italy or Slovakia. Wealth redistribution via EU contributions means that our tax money builds highways in Greece and hospitals in Poland rather than our own money being spent at home.

EU open border policies means that any unemployed or unemployable EU citizen can walk into Britain and start claiming health services and welfare benefits from arrival because unlike Canada these are not based on your contributions but rather on residency and unlike Canada these are not time limited but can run to teh year dot. Open borders means security problems in today’s world too. We literally under EU law cannot stop any of 500 million people from walking in. We cannot provide employment for them all, it is impossible.

So the nuts of it for me is that I want British law to govern British people, our income tax money to stay at home and a points system, the same as in Canada, introduced to govern immigration so that rather than Romanian mafia we get needed skills arriving in Britain.

#122 BillyBob on 06.15.16 at 5:05 am

};-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 06.14.16 at 11:01 pm
Let’s face it Canada is a popular place.

Once IN Canada, Vancouver is a popular place.

Kelowna is popular.

Hell, for some The Big Smoke is even popular.

What do they have in common? They’re all in one of the Best Countries in the World. Yet as AWESOME as Canada is, for many, the climate SUCKS. Closer to the 49th is tolerable. Vancouver, Kelowna, Toronto are all about as close as you can get to the equator while still being in Canada.

We have good reason to be proud. We’ve got something in high demand. HIGH demand. Look at us. Look at the alternatives. Where would you rather be? What country in the world would you bet on?

===================================

Yeah.

Canada is so popular that as the world’s 2nd largest country, it has 0.5% of the world’s population. It’s main attraction these days is simply as a place to be exploited. Of course there are always people eager to do so, but it’s a bit of a dubious quality as a positive. And not sustainable.

I’m guessing you haven’t travelled much?

Putting Canadian cities and the words “close to the equator” in the same sentence has to be one of the more pathetic attempts at trying to justify the horrid weather in the country.

I mean, good for you to be proud of your home but geez you’re embarrassing yourself.

#123 dr. talc on 06.15.16 at 6:27 am

We’ve ALL already lost, 30% of our real world wealth measured in US $.

_____

that was the correction

#124 IHCTD9 on 06.15.16 at 7:28 am

Yeah.

Canada is so popular that as the world’s 2nd largest country, it has 0.5% of the world’s population. It’s main attraction these days is simply as a place to be exploited. Of course there are always people eager to do so, but it’s a bit of a dubious quality as a positive. And not sustainable.

I’m guessing you haven’t travelled much?

Putting Canadian cities and the words “close to the equator” in the same sentence has to be one of the more pathetic attempts at trying to justify the horrid weather in the country.

I mean, good for you to be proud of your home but geez you’re embarrassing yourself.

___________________________________________

Canada ain’t so bad. Lot’s of room, 4 seasons, awesome scenery, outdoors activities of every kind, rich with resources, high standard of living given the small population. Hell, I even really like a sunny, crystal clear, -30 degree day every now and then :).

Get too close to the equator and it’s 42 bloody degrees in the shade and half the bugs and animals can kill you.

#125 IHCTD9 on 06.15.16 at 7:34 am

#121 jane 24 on 06.15.16 at 3:25 am
Garth you referred to the UK Referendum as being about ‘Nationalism, Britishness and Anti-immigration, you are right but let me put it into a context.

____________________________________________

Is Orlando having any effect on the polls over there? It’s starting to look like it was a cold premeditated family effort to kill gays at this point – more of a radical Islam deal than a conflicted homosexual deal as it originally appeared.

Just wondering if this event is helping the Brexit supporters in the same manner that it is helping Trump.

#126 Andrewt on 06.15.16 at 8:03 am

#113 Smoking Man on 06.15.16 at 12:30 am
These guys had vision.
……

“No freeman shall ever be debarred the use of arms,” Thomas Jefferson wrote in the first draft of the Virginia Constitution.

Without the Second Amendment, the people are reduced to a permanent slave class who are powerless to resist the monopoly of force held by an out-of-control government.


That ship sailed long ago. Do you really think some AR-15s will help you if the army comes knocking? That whole “well regulated miltia” crap is outdated. We have toilets that flush now, time to move on.

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.16 at 8:06 am

@#107 Devils Advocate
“don’t set the price. You don’t set the price. THE MARKET sets the price. Be it currency, gold or blood the market will pay what it must to get what it wants.”
********************************************

Soooo even though a few days ago you admitted its not a good time to buy.

And even though you have repeatedly stated “your there FOR the customer(buyer or seller). Giving them your years of experience and you only work for their best interests….blah blah blah.”

What it really boils down to is….
You’re a comission based salesman working hard for YOUR comission…….

Which is fine BUT dont take the “holier than thou ” attitude

A total conflict of interest that puts your customers in the back seat while you drive the “buyers” (suckers) in todays market ……right off a financial cliff.

#128 Ronaldo on 06.15.16 at 8:13 am

#108 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 06.14.16 at 11:50 pm

#102 Ronaldo on 06.14.16 at 11:21 pm

THAT is your opinion. Local demographics prove there are a great and growing number who don’t agree with you.
—————————————————————-

I take it your own ”opinion” has changed since you posted this on Castanet a while back. What has happened to change your mind? Are the nice people moving there nowadays still turning into jerks or has something happened to change that? Like maybe they have changed something in the water supply.

”Postby Devil’s Advocate » Dec 31st, 2007, 9:24 am
As a long time resident of Kelowna, my own experience has been that Kelowna does indeed SUCK! People here are jerks by and large. Even nice people who move here become jerks. I don’t know what it is… maybe something in the water… everyone says they LOVE this town but none of them really do. It’s a strange phenomena really. We brag about what a great place this is, and it once was although still then inhabited by jerks, and we continue to make it worse and worse and worse. I’d like to leave but I can’t. I hate it… I really do. I love what it could be… but I hate what it is and each day more so.

User avatar
Devil’s Advocate
Grand Pooh-bah

Posts: 2012
Likes: 0 post
Liked in: 1 post
Joined: Nov 15th, 2006, 7:47 am
Location: Kelowna”

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.16 at 8:17 am

@#120 The American
“Geeeeeeezus H. Christ on a cross, people! ……..
……..And that issue is not opening the Seventh Seal and ushering in the goddamn apocalypse.”
********************************************

Hilarious! Total agreement.
And its refreshing to see one non bible verse spouting US citizen every once in a while.

Never ceases to amaze me when some sports jock wins an inconsequential football, baseball, basketball game that they immediately drop to one knee and praise God for the win……with all the death, misery and evil in the world …..God gives two shits about a stupid sport….

yes I’m an atheist

Unleash the biblical hounds….

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.16 at 8:27 am

@128 Ronaldo
Well.
THAT was interesting !
D.A.?
Care to comment?
And while you’re at it.
Have the Hell Angels shot anyone in Kelowna lately or is it just a monthly thing?

#131 TurnerNation on 06.15.16 at 8:30 am

Best restaurants in world! Canada not on list.
Cough. ..world class…cough. Backwards ditch water (mixing mets…)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-14/osteria-francescana-is-named-the-world-s-best-restaurant

#132 TurnerNation on 06.15.16 at 8:42 am

They know we are weak willed Canadian Sheep with an oligarchy. Now, who hates our freedoms?
Joke’s on them I keep no money in a bank and run most transactions via LOC which has no fees.

From IE newsletter:

Several of Canada’s biggest banks are upping the fees that they charge customers even as they continue to rake in hefty profits, and experts say Canadians are likely too complacent to do much about it.

#133 fancy_pants on 06.15.16 at 8:46 am

housing can correct 20%, but that doesn’t offer up a told you so moment to anyone b/c prices have reached the stratosphere since the bleating began.

And for Garth, if there is a champagne bottle tucked away, might as well pop it now, maybe Bandit will enjoy it. On the grand stage, we’ve passed the point where the majority loses anyways. certainly not a celebration moment

#134 fancy_pants on 06.15.16 at 8:58 am

#46 Andrew Woburn on 06.14.16 at 8:19 pm

thought this article may interest you. $ is running from France too.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/01/news/millionaires-fleeing-france/

#135 Herb on 06.15.16 at 9:09 am

… the presumptive Republican nominee is an embarrassment to his own party, and the ultimate IQ test for the American electorate, come November.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-orlando-shooting-racial-innuendo-1.3634848

On that basis, and the fact that he is demolishing some political Potemkin Villages, he just might make it.

#136 Noel on 06.15.16 at 9:19 am

Lol @ the prediction of ’20-23%’.

Absurd specificity to make it look like he has any idea of what will happen. I wonder if his model spat out those numbers, and if his model has predicted anything ever in the past. Doubt it.

I predict a 19.73% rise over the next two years, followed by a 11.43% rise over the following 187.5 days.

Sounds stupid doesn’t it?

#137 Vancouver Lockdown on 06.15.16 at 9:27 am

The American – Best. Post. Of. The. Year! I read it and it is moments like this I secretly wish I were American. You delivered a powerful and articulate message veiled in a touch of sarcastic humor with a smidge of vulgarity. I keep rereading it and get a chuckle each time. Genius! I continue to hear of this electoral college and delegate more now than elections prior. Care to shed some light what they are because I guess I don’t understand the American system as well as I thought.

#138 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.15.16 at 9:31 am

#128 Ronaldo on 06.15.16 at 8:13 am

Ironic that after thinking about how absurd this current market is and remembering the last time it was so, I’d check this blog to find such a post as that you just posted quoting me from that very past!

Fact is, as a REALTOR®, I don’t fair well in such markets as this. “People are really quite stupid”, as George Carlin said and went on to elaborate, “and half of them are dumber than that.”

Markets like this bring out the worst in people. I tend to pull back at such times as these as I find it a generally appalling comment of peoples stupidity and greed. I’m here to help my past clients but as far as “making hay while the sun is shining” Just can’t get excited about that. There is too much ugliness in such markets as this.

Today our market is up over 10% that which it was at the very peak of 2007, 48% over last year to date.

Kelowna is a different city than that which I grew up in. The influx of people eager to enjoy all that the Okanagan Valley has to offer has not be such a good thing on many fronts. It is a tough town. Many move here thinking they will teach us small town folk a thing or two. A good number end up leaving with their tail tucked between their legs. Those who manage to stay tell a tale quite different than they expected to be the case.

Being a most popular girl on the dance floor can have it’s trials and tribulations. Supply and demand can be a bitch when not in balance.

Do I like Kelowna? Absolutely. Do I like the people? Sometimes not so much. Many come here for what the city has to offer but insist on bringing with them something of that which they intended to leave behind – big city attitude. They want a more relaxed pace but they also want a Starbucks on every corner, Big Box store convenience and such.

People from Saskatchewan now those are good people. Don’t know what it is about folks from Saskatchewan but I’ve never met one I didn’t take an immediate liking to.

I like it when the market corrects and people are taught lessons they ought to have remembered from past experience but haven’t. Too many think this robust housing market is a good thing. It’s not and it will divulge itself for it’s shortcomings soon enough.

I miss the Kelowna of yesteryear but that is gone. Nothing lasts forever. The Okanagan Valley is still the Okanagan Valley despite the crowds.

I am flattered that you follow me so closely you could so easily dig that up from almost 10 years ago. It is true I wrote that. I’m not going to deny it. That was a time in the economy not unlike today, not as fevered as today. It was a pretty heady time then. I knew something was amiss then as I do now.

Like I keep quoting; Economics is the backstory of all history and demographics is the backstory of all economics. It’s about people and “people are really quite stupid and half of them are dumber than that”.

And so my participation on such blogs as this is more frequent as I seek some hint of rational somewhere amongst humanity, but even here the backstory is wanton greed if only the anticipation of an opportunity to “vulch”.

Nope, it’s times like this that really bring out the worst in people. Times like this I tend to check out, occasionally post such as that you dug up from the past which clearly exhibits my disgust with what will ultimately be peoples undoing.

To quote George once more; “Planet earth ain’t going’ nowhere… WE ARE!”

#139 Lee on 06.15.16 at 9:34 am

A 25% crash now will take us back to where we were February of 2016 in Toronto. Big deal. Was it worth the wait for all of you bargain seekers?

I know math is hard. But try. — Garth

#140 Ole Doberman on 06.15.16 at 9:44 am

#50 Keith in Calgary on 06.14.16 at 8:32 pm

Garth cannot handle the truth.

My comment about how 2 of my leftist coworkers said that Trump was right this week………and that Trump had won the election due to the tragedy in Orlando gt deleted.

1984……LOL !!!

You are a caricature of a human being and the reason we fight.

No comment of yours was deleted. Perhaps it died of embarrassment en route. — Garth
———————————————————-
Don’t let Garth make you feel bad, he’s the same with me when I post evidence to the contrary about HAM.

Garths the man in my mind cause I’m impressed with his consistently good calls. However, he’s been wrong on RE for 8 years and thats the truth. People in Tor and Van that took his advice missed out big time.
Garths analysis is spot on in terms of domestic fundamentals – but the worlds more complex i.e international capital flows and corruption, a deadly KO combination that has ruined families lives in Van.

Nevertheless, I hope Garths gets his revenge, and will eventually be right. Although you can never buy back the lost time and lives.

#141 james on 06.15.16 at 10:05 am

#175 Smoking Man on 06.14.16 at 3:56 pm

#152 conan on 06.14.16 at 1:14 pm
Serious beat down happening in post 138. How will Smoking Man respond? Who gives a poo about German bond rates….. the World awaits. The air has chilled and there is no need for air conditioning.
…………………..

I didn’t even read it. You would think a teacher would know how to break up sentences. It’s to busy and ugly to read.

And he forgot to address me as Dr Smoking Man.
……………………………………………………………………..
Ha, ha, ha Dr Smoking Man, you are funny. I read the teachers serious beat down yesterday and you did read it Smoking Man.
How else would you know about his long winded sentence structure.
You are a great liar, perhaps the best bullshitter on this blog. Kudos to you, you win the prize.
Now I have to wonder are you a Smoking Man? Maybe a Smoking Woman, Maybe a Smoking Transgender Person, Perhaps a Smoking Alien?

#142 Tyler on 06.15.16 at 10:39 am

Hey Garth, any thoughts on doing a column on platform traded funds?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/etfs/new-platform-traded-funds-offer-lower-cost-option-for-fee-based-investing/article26605280/

#143 Ole Doberman on 06.15.16 at 10:44 am

Wow 10,000 vacant houses in Vancity owned by HAM
Nope no affect on prices:

http://beta.bnn.ca/vancouver-mayor-hopes-to-impose-tax-on-owners-of-vacant-homes-1.507973

There is no data on who owns which homes. You are obsessed. — Garth

#144 Ole Doberman on 06.15.16 at 10:47 am

#120 The American on 06.15.16 at 2:55 am

Geeeeeeezus H. Christ on a cross, people! Get a grip already! Donald Drumpf will never be President. As much as I hate to agree with the piece of shit that he is, Jeb Bush was spot-on when he said Drumpf will never be President. He selected those words carefully, knowing full well how the American political and election process works, specifically the Electoral College. The votes are not there and the votes will not be there. Ain’t gonna happen, folks. Like I’ve been saying, everyone in unison say, “Madam President.” As a Congressional Delegate, I can attest the deal is already done, no matter what your political affiliation or preference of candidate. From now until election day, its all about ratings and getting the people riled and ruffled. It’s about bringing new platforms to light, and it’s about exploration of the new initiatives to come in the forthcoming administration. That’s all. Nothing more. So, I’ll be the first to break it to all of you that you can rest better knowing Americans are not, nor will they be, moving to Canada upon the election of Hillary’s liberal path.

As for the Americans who read this blog, you should know I began as a Bernie Delegate, and now I’m a Hillary Delegate. Why you ask? Because in this election I am a one-issue voter. And that issue is not opening the Seventh Seal and ushering in the goddamn apocalypse.
———————————————————-
Trumps popularity is so large there is no rigging this election

#145 Smoking Man on 06.15.16 at 10:56 am

#140 james on 06.15.16 at 10:05 am
#175 Smoking Man on 06.14.16 at 3:56 pm

#152 conan on 06.14.16 at 1:14 pm
Serious beat down happening in post 138. How will Smoking Man respond? Who gives a poo about German bond rates….. the World awaits. The air has chilled and there is no need for air conditioning.
…………………..

I didn’t even read it. You would think a teacher would know how to break up sentences. It’s to busy and ugly to read.

And he forgot to address me as Dr Smoking Man.
……………………………………………………………………..
Ha, ha, ha Dr Smoking Man, you are funny. I read the teachers serious beat down yesterday and you did read it Smoking Man.
How else would you know about his long winded sentence structure.
You are a great liar, perhaps the best bullshitter on this blog. Kudos to you, you win the prize.
Now I have to wonder are you a Smoking Man? Maybe a Smoking Woman, Maybe a Smoking Transgender Person, Perhaps a Smoking Alien?
……..

Ha, I sense I’m growing on you, You’re not as hostile anymore.

#146 rainclouds on 06.15.16 at 11:13 am

Devils whatever

KLENEX® BTW its Kleenex…./AKA Tissue
XEROX® AKA/ Photocopier
REALTOR® AKA / Property Sales person

While there are some capable and ethical House Sales People, Clearly your “profession” hasn’t set the bar very high.

http://www.realtycourse.ca

In the vernacular of our host……..pathetic

#147 Outtahere on 06.15.16 at 11:19 am

Well there you go…got my own greater fool at home. A friend of a friend contacted me with a cash offer of $1,600,000 for our home that needs a new kitchen and new bathrooms (last updated back in the 1980s). So I think great, we are empty nesters, the house is too big for us, we can downsize and rent for a year or two. So I approach my husband with this offer with a spreadsheet showing that we could be debt free AND have $1.2 mil invested and throwing off enough money to rent for a couple of years. I even tell him he can himself a new truck (which is a big deal for me to say because I’m a public transport advocate, I ride my bike to work and I have a car share account). Anyway, so what is the first thing that my husband says? “I’m not paying someone else’s mortgage!” OMG. The man has no business sense

#148 Noel on 06.15.16 at 11:26 am

#141 Ole Doberman

Trumps popularity is so large there is no rigging this election
__________________

This isn’t about popularity, its about demographics and how the US electoral system works. A president can win an election with a little over one fifth of the popular vote.

It will not happen.

Over 60% of Canadians did not vote for Trudeau, and yet he won a majority. The US system is even more skewed. — Garth

#149 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.15.16 at 11:28 am

OMG. The man has no business sense

well someone dated and married the guy…

#150 Response to Big Jack, comment #22 on 06.15.16 at 11:30 am

In a nutshell, Trump’s ascendancy is a perfect illustration of how dictators may gain power. Adolf Hitler was able to exploit the prejudices and biases of the German population, to twist their angst and fear to his gain. At the outset, after a few false starts, he worked within the established system of government (he was, afterall, elected) and then he set about destroying his opposition and ultimately starting World War II.

If you want to understand how a madman gains power, study history. If you want to see how a democracy can be tested, study Trump. I believe, as Garth states, that because the American system of government has checks and balances, Trump will lose. God help us if he wins.

#151 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.15.16 at 11:35 am

Best restaurants in world! Canada not on list.
Cough. ..world class…cough. Backwards ditch water (mixing mets…)

restaurants? really? that’s an indicator? for whom?

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/11/04/these-countries-have-the-best-quality-of-life_n_8470292.html

#152 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.15.16 at 11:44 am

The next day, Trump delivered the speech that Obama should have given.

And now, a few days later, Hillary and Obama are finally saying similar things to what Trump said on Sunday.

that was sad to watch

the president and the democratic nominee parroting the man who supposedly isn’t ‘presidential’

embarassment

#153 Jenna Stephenson on 06.15.16 at 11:45 am

Adolf Hilter was a socialist. You mean Obama not Trump already gained power this way.

#154 waiting on the westcoast on 06.15.16 at 11:51 am

#119 Black sheep says… “So…why didn’t canadian RE correct hard, 8 years ago, just like all others mentioned? No, were not special, but obviously different in some relevant way.”

Canada, like Australia, managed to avoid the last blood letting due to better banking institutions, less levels of debt power capita, emergency levels of interest rates (still present today) and a massive commodity boom sparked by Chinese stimulus during the GFC.

What’s changed??? Banks are now just as leveraged as the US ones, CMHC cannot backstop any more mortgages, we are debt pickled, no commodities boom and rates have bottomed out…

#155 Neil Armstrong on 06.15.16 at 11:52 am

Warren Buffett is in $30 billion into solar and wind. Oil is finished within 10 years or so. The big money pulled out of oil in 2011! I know it’s really, really hard for you to get this, but it’s now officially cheaper to use utility-scale renewables than fossil fuels. This is why your governments are weaning you off fossil fuels and investing heavily into the renewables infrastructure. And the cost of transmission will quickly approach zero. You can’t compete with zero. Traditional utilities that rely on fossil fuels are finished already, as well as their investors, they just don’t know it yet… Innovate or evaporate. Repeat that again to yourselves privately if necessary. Understand why deflation in traditional fixed costs will happen instantly with the flip of a switch. “Employment” will no longer be a measure of the strength of an economy. Decentralization and blockchain is changing the economic landscape for the better. Renewables are literally changing the prospects of the environmental landscape. Invest accordingly. Once in a lifetime opportunity now. Have a super day!

#156 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.15.16 at 11:55 am

#146 rainclouds on 06.15.16 at 11:13 am
Devils whatever

KLENEX® BTW its Kleenex…./AKA Tissue
XEROX® AKA/ Photocopier
REALTOR® AKA / Property Sales person

While there are some capable and ethical House Sales People, Clearly your “profession” hasn’t set the bar very high.

http://www.realtycourse.ca

In the vernacular of our host……..pathetic

Agreed wholeheartedly; our profession HAS NOT, in my opinion, set the bar high enough. I am a strong advocate of at least a 2 year apprentice program and relevant minimum prerequisite formal education standards

BTW REALTOR® AKA /Real Estate Agent. Research the Law of Agency. That’s one of the primary differences between REALTORS® and Sales People. To be a REALTOR® is to be an Agent.

#157 VancouverBrit on 06.15.16 at 12:01 pm

#112

You’re a piece of human garbage. So it’s alright for you to come to Canada to earn a better living and make a better life for yourself and your family but how dare those peasants come into the UK to do the same for their families, right? People with nothing risking it all to make their lives just a little better.

You’re disgusting.
——————————————————————
Haha trust me I am not making a better life for myself here in Canada than I would in the UK, but nice try.

Why does everyone always make this a xenophobic thing? Countries all over the world control their immigration to only allow people in who benefit their country. It has nothing to do with the people entering the country, it’s to protect the home citizens from a degrading standard of living. Look at the US, Australia, heck even look at Canada. They don’t allow free movement of people to come and go whenever they please, why should the UK? Why is it wrong to want to control our border the same way Canada does? You paint this ugly picture but it’s no different to what most the developed world outside the EU already has.

You seem to think the people arriving are risking their lives by coming? What makes you think that? There is no risk for an EU citizen to come to the UK, just hop on a plane/train/bus and they are allowed to live and work here permanently. I am not talking about asylum seekers here, that has nothing to do with the EU, perhaps you are confused.

Anyway, luckily the majority of people in the UK agree with me and come June 23rd we will be out of the EU.

#158 RentYVR on 06.15.16 at 12:18 pm

@#147. “I’m not paying someone else’s mortgage!” As a long time renter I love when people use that line…so basically you’d rather keep supporting the 4+% dividend yield I’m earning on my CDN bank shares through your mortgage payments instead? Oh and I get a tax break on those dividends, which you don’t get on your mortgage payments. But if owning debt means so much to you by all means continue.

#159 Rational Optimist on 06.15.16 at 12:25 pm

67 Joe2.0 on 06.14.16 at 9:36 pm

I think you’re right with your logic- so you’re going to need a new get-rich-quick scheme.

#160 Ole Doberman on 06.15.16 at 12:28 pm

#148 Noel on 06.15.16 at 11:26 am

#141 Ole Doberman

Trumps popularity is so large there is no rigging this election
__________________

This isn’t about popularity, its about demographics and how the US electoral system works. A president can win an election with a little over one fifth of the popular vote.

It will not happen.

Over 60% of Canadians did not vote for Trudeau, and yet he won a majority. The US system is even more skewed. — Garth
———————————————————
You think Trump doesn’t know this, he obviously has something up his sleeve, or supporters in high places who will surprise the establishment.

Can’t wait to see Hillary get chewed up and spit out in the debate – hail Mr Trump!

Make America, and Canada, great again! And start by chasing crooked politicians out of the system!

#161 LP on 06.15.16 at 12:39 pm

#147 Outtahere on 06.15.16 at 11:19 am
The man has no business sense

***************************************

Now if you were a husband speaking about his wife we could cue all the responses from so many dogs on here who would advocate, “Just tell her what’s what and go ahead and tell her you’re selling the house!”

Peculiar how, when the shoe is on the other foot, a wife doesn’t/cannot force an issue like this. I sympathize entirely with your problem since my own husband is extremely reluctant to consider selling to rent. Mind you, where we live the market is a great deal less crazy than where you must be living.

Good luck bringing him around.

F69ON

#162 lunacyabounds on 06.15.16 at 12:42 pm

“You think Trump doesn’t know this, he obviously has something up his sleeve, or supporters in high places who will surprise the establishment.”

He is going to have his friends (that are higher up than congress/senate/white house, somehow) rewrite the constitution so that he can be elected?

Do you believe that?

Fascinating.

#163 james on 06.15.16 at 12:42 pm

#145 Smoking Man on 06.15.16 at 10:56 am

#140 james on 06.15.16 at 10:05 am
#175 Smoking Man on 06.14.16 at 3:56 pm

#152 conan on 06.14.16 at 1:14 pm
Serious beat down happening in post 138. How will Smoking Man respond? Who gives a poo about German bond rates….. the World awaits. The air has chilled and there is no need for air conditioning.
…………………..

I didn’t even read it. You would think a teacher would know how to break up sentences. It’s to busy and ugly to read.

And he forgot to address me as Dr Smoking Man.
……………………………………………………………………..
Ha, ha, ha Dr Smoking Man, you are funny. I read the teachers serious beat down yesterday and you did read it Smoking Man.
How else would you know about his long winded sentence structure.
You are a great liar, perhaps the best bullshitter on this blog. Kudos to you, you win the prize.
Now I have to wonder are you a Smoking Man? Maybe a Smoking Woman, Maybe a Smoking Transgender Person, Perhaps a Smoking Alien?
……..

Ha, I sense I’m growing on you, You’re not as hostile anymore.
……………………………………………………………….
Growing on me like a lesion perhaps. I have never been hostile to anyone except any living creature that would try to harm my 3 children.

#164 james on 06.15.16 at 12:46 pm

“Bob Woodward: Even Nixon didn’t ban Post during Watergate” what is Donald Trump afraid of? Is he thinking someone might misquote him or stretch the truth?

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-revokes-washington-post-s-press-credentials-n591586

#165 Stevie01 on 06.15.16 at 12:49 pm

Doubt that real estate in Toronto and Van is going to move down anytime soon. These cities are attractive to foreigners and super rich immigrants looking to move here and settle. Most Canadians at the current stagnant income levels and super high taxation are likely unable to afford in those cities.

#166 Skeptic on 06.15.16 at 1:03 pm

#32

I kind of liked Trump in the beginning just because he wasn’t your normal stereo type rhetoric boring politician. But the more he opens his mouth, the more of a nutjob he becomes.

I went to a Sikh wedding reception at a mosque in Toronto a few years back and the big pic on the wall was some person in turban dress holding a machine gun. That seemed not what I would think a pic of someone held in high regard would be pictured like. Kind of like us seeing the Queen with a machine gun.

———————————————–
You know that Sikhs aren’t Muslims, right? And that Sikhs don’t attend Mosques? And that Muslims don’t wear turbans? So based on these facts, is there anything in your story that actually adds up?

But I guess bigots like you don’t let the truth get in the way of your ignorant racist views, which is why you come across as a joke.

#167 boonerator on 06.15.16 at 1:28 pm

I love this post
“9 Castles That Cost Less Than A Condo In Vancouver”
https://www.buzzfeed.com/tanyachen/castles-that-cost-less-than-a-condo-in-vancouver?utm_term=.uvyAj7W3bW#.aevk2gR7ZR

This has gone on a while. I remember an email I got from a friend in the late 90’s.
2 pictures, a beater on south Granville and a Norman castle. Guess which was cheaper?

#168 John in Mtl on 06.15.16 at 1:29 pm

#150 Response to Big Jack, comment #22 on 06.15.16 at 11:30 am

“In a nutshell, Trump’s ascendancy is a perfect illustration of how dictators may gain power. …”

… ” Trump will lose. God help us if he wins.”

No, God help us if Hillary Clinton wins!
WWIII, more fraud and corruption, more lies and lawlessness, more unnecessary death and destruction.

PS: I’m not necessarily a Trump fan.

#169 Blacksheep on 06.15.16 at 1:51 pm

The American # 120,

“Geeeeeeezus H. Christ on a cross, people! Get a grip already!”
————————————–
You supplied a link a while back on delegates. I read it. Thanks.

Then I read about super delegates. And then read about the electoral college.

The reason your getting frustrated with the Greater Fool readership, is they obviously didn’t read what I read. Just them the truth and they will understand.
————————————-
“Democracy, is “a system of government in which ALL THE PEOPLE of a state or polity … are involved in MAKING DECISIONS about its affairs, typically by voting to elect representatives to a parliament or similar assembly”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy

“A republic is a sovereign state or country which is organized with a form of government in which POWER resides in ELECTED INDIVIDUALS, REPRESENTING the citizen body”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic
————————————————-
This is my understanding and please correct me if I’m wrong.

Your republic electoral system is designed to give the Cattle the ‘perception’ of ‘having a say’, by limiting choices down to the pre approved, two parties ‘candidates’. But when the ‘two parties’ loose control of their candidate choice and things potentially go in a direction the systems not cool with (Trump), the fail safe of electoral college electors (selected by the system, not elected) plays the role of intervener and can override the will of the huddled masses, regardless of what their voting intention was.

” The United States Electoral College is the institution that elects the President and Vice President of the United States every four years.

“Citizens of the United States DO NOT directly elect the president or the vice president; instead, these voters directly elect designated intermediaries called “electors,” who almost always have pledged to vote for particular presidential and vice presidential candidates (though unpledged electors are possible) and who are themselves selected according to the particular laws of each state.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)

Excuse the caps, not yelling, just can’t highlight.

#170 TurnerNation on 06.15.16 at 1:58 pm

SpaceX rocket crashed after trying 3x to land on a barge . Earlier attempts failed too.
Say I thought they landed on moon first time 45 years ago…
No wonder Hatfield is at Bilderburg.

#171 S H on 06.15.16 at 2:07 pm

Ole Doberman on 06.15.16 at 10:44 am
Wow 10,000 vacant houses in Vancity owned by HAM
Nope no affect on prices:

http://beta.bnn.ca/vancouver-mayor-hopes-to-impose-tax-on-owners-of-vacant-homes-1.507973
——————–
There is no data on who owns which homes. You are obsessed. — Garth
——————–

BNN is wrong. If you read the study, of the 10,800 vacant properties, 1,080 are houses and the remaining 9,720 are condos and apartments.

It is not 10,800 vacant houses. Bias folks have been misquoting this to paint the picture that on every block there are dilapidated vacant houses.

Findings from Study per City of Vancouver website:

The findings of the study, which looked at 225,000 homes in Vancouver, showed that:

The percentage of unoccupied homes has remained steady since 2002 – about 4.8% for all housing types.

10,800 homes out of the 225,000 studied were empty for one year or more.

90% of the empty homes were condos and apartments.

The percentage of empty single-family and duplex properties remains the same as 2002 at around 1%.

Census data shows that the percentage of empty apartment and condo units in Vancouver is about the same as other large Canadian cities.

#172 ronh on 06.15.16 at 2:13 pm

Lucy has pulled the football again.

#173 H on 06.15.16 at 2:20 pm

“it may raise rates once this year”

classic.

Translation.

We might be cutting later this year.

#174 bdwy sktrn on 06.15.16 at 2:34 pm

1.58 – rates continue a downward march.

one and only one, at best, like many of us fools have been saying all year.

#175 Lee on 06.15.16 at 2:36 pm

#158,

How exactly is your landlord supporting your investments? You are paying him money every month. If he chooses to invest his money by maintaining a property which continues to appreciate in Vancouver at the rate of $200,000 a year, and $100,000 a year in Toronto (assuming a sfh), how exactly is he helping you? That $10,000 a year you save not owning will appreciate at the rate of $500 a year. Who wins this little game? Who has always won this little game? Don’t look at percentages return. Look at dollar return. That’s all you can eat.

#176 Hana Smits on 06.15.16 at 2:39 pm

Looking at the bond market and long term interest rates, 30 year Canada bonds are 1.76%. An all time low.

I thought rates could not go lower said many in the last few months and years.

#177 family beagle on 06.15.16 at 2:43 pm

US Fed and their impending interest hikes reminds me of a girlfriend I had in highschool. Lots of makeup, lots of promises, no benefit.

#178 Rational Optimist on 06.15.16 at 2:46 pm

148 Noel on 06.15.16 at 11:26 am

“This isn’t about popularity, its about demographics and how the US electoral system works. A president can win an election with a little over one fifth of the popular vote.”

“Over 60% of Canadians did not vote for Trudeau, and yet he won a majority. The US system is even more skewed. — Garth”

I agree with you that the reality television show host is not going to win the presidency, but it’s not right to say that the U.S. system is not more skewed than ours. Our system routinely produces majority governments with little over 40% (1988, 1993, 2000) or even under 40% (1997, 2011, 2015) of popular support. The last Prime Minister to earn over half of votes was Mulroney.

Noel, where do you get the idea that “A president can win an election with a little over one fifth of the popular vote”? In the States, very rarely has the winner of the popular vote not won the electoral college. In recent elections, the U.S. president won over 50% of votes cast in 2012, 2008, and 2004. 2000 was a rare case in which the winner of the electoral college lost the popular vote- but by less than half a percent. In 1996, the victor won 49% of the vote even with a popular third-party challenger.

Just how could a president win with a fifth of the vote? In the modern era, the smallest share of the popular vote to win the presidency was in 1992, at 43%.

It’s true that a winner’s proportion of the electoral college won might in some cases be blown out of all proportion to the popular vote won, but that’s not really important- the fact is that, in the vast majority of cases, the winner of the popular vote will be the winner of the electoral college and the presidency. The reality tv guy is likely going to lose the presidency because more voters will simply not opt for him, not because of any tricks of the system.

Here’s a good read: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-about-the-electoral-college-math/

#179 TurnerNation on 06.15.16 at 2:53 pm

No rate hikes till 2017-18 in my opinion.

#180 Frank on 06.15.16 at 3:10 pm

Looks like interest rates are like cooking brisket. Lower for longer. The great asset bubble continues.

#181 Frank on 06.15.16 at 3:12 pm

This tightening cycle is slower than any in history. It’s fair to expect fewer steps and less of an increase.

#182 rainclouds on 06.15.16 at 3:12 pm

devil dude ‘Research the Law of Agency. ”

I dont need to waste time to know Agents work for 1 person, Agents.

In fact, here in BC the “Agency” responsible for “agent” discipline also looks after…..”agents”.

Maybe climb out of your insular, aggrieved world and read the tea leaves. Your industry is due for a huge wake up call.

MLS- poof, soon to be public domain,

Oversight- Likely soon to be in the hands of a 3rd party due to inaction, secrecy, legal, and trust issues

Agent accreditation- We both agree it is a joke and likely to be tightened

Fees – common sense would dictate arbitrary fees of several thousand for someone who used to cut hair and now is an “Agent” presiding over a bidding war where their input consists of listing and taking offers then handing off the substantive work to a lawyer/notary is ludicrous. I have no problem with fair compensation for someone who puts in the effort. Currently in Vancouver /Toronto this isn’t the reality…..

I know, I just dont understand the hardship you and your brethren face, to that I would say, You could always get another job……………….just save the sanctimony for somebody else

#183 macroman on 06.15.16 at 3:15 pm

Fold your tent Garth. Rate hike not happening before election.

Just listen to the garden gnome. Big shift in long term outlook. Deflation coming on hard.

Dot plot plop

#184 GSyes on 06.15.16 at 3:23 pm

DELETED

#185 S.Bby on 06.15.16 at 3:25 pm

I was in Whistler last weekend and one thing that was noticeable was the large number of new multi-million dollar (is there any other type?) houses being built in the Blueberry Hill area. With no real effort just driving around I counted 7 new builds on the go.

#186 Ole Doberman on 06.15.16 at 3:26 pm

BNN is wrong. If you read the study, of the 10,800 vacant properties, 1,080 are houses and the remaining 9,720 are condos and apartments.

It is not 10,800 vacant houses. Bias folks have been misquoting this to paint the picture that on every block there are dilapidated vacant houses.

Findings from Study per City of Vancouver website:

The findings of the study, which looked at 225,000 homes in Vancouver, showed that:

The percentage of unoccupied homes has remained steady since 2002 – about 4.8% for all housing types.

10,800 homes out of the 225,000 studied were empty for one year or more.

90% of the empty homes were condos and apartments.

The percentage of empty single-family and duplex properties remains the same as 2002 at around 1%.

Census data shows that the percentage of empty apartment and condo units in Vancouver is about the same as other large Canadian cities.
———————————————————

Source? – Doberman

#187 James on 06.15.16 at 3:28 pm

#120 The American on 06.15.16 at 2:55 am

Geeeeeeezus H. Christ on a cross, people! Get a grip already! Donald Drumpf will never be President. As much as I hate to agree with the piece of shit that he is, Jeb Bush was spot-on when he said Drumpf will never be President. He selected those words carefully, knowing full well how the American political and election process works, specifically the Electoral College. The votes are not there and the votes will not be there. Ain’t gonna happen, folks. Like I’ve been saying, everyone in unison say, “Madam President.” As a Congressional Delegate, I can attest the deal is already done, no matter what your political affiliation or preference of candidate. From now until election day, its all about ratings and getting the people riled and ruffled. It’s about bringing new platforms to light, and it’s about exploration of the new initiatives to come in the forthcoming administration. That’s all. Nothing more. So, I’ll be the first to break it to all of you that you can rest better knowing Americans are not, nor will they be, moving to Canada upon the election of Hillary’s liberal path.
As for the Americans who read this blog, you should know I began as a Bernie Delegate, and now I’m a Hillary Delegate. Why you ask? Because in this election I am a one-issue voter. And that issue is not opening the Seventh Seal and ushering in the goddamn apocalypse.
………………………………………………………………..
The American is correct Trump is death to the GOP and they know it.

#188 Rob Nelson on 06.15.16 at 3:37 pm

@Arfmoocat

You went to a Sikh wedding at a mosque, eh? Well, there’s a first.

Moron.

#189 gladiator on 06.15.16 at 3:45 pm

Garth: “There is no data on who owns which homes. You are obsessed. — Garth”

So you are suggesting that locals buy houses to let them sit empty and they live… where?… Even if these owners were local speculators, they would still rent them out to squeeze some dough for mortgage payments, taxes, etc. But they do not even care to bother about peanuts like rental income.
Oh! I know! These are VERY wealthy locals, right?

#190 Noel on 06.15.16 at 3:47 pm

#177 Rational Optimist

Noel, where do you get the idea that “A president can win an election with a little over one fifth of the popular vote”?
__________________________

Just theorhetical. Winning all of the small states by a tiny margin and losing the big states by a large margin will get you in based on the electoral college.

https://www.squarefree.com/2004/11/01/winning-an-election-with-22-of-the-popular-vote/

But in reality:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin

W lost the popular vote by half a million votes but still won the election.

#191 Smoking Man on 06.15.16 at 3:49 pm

#175 Hana Smits on 06.15.16 at 2:39 pm
Looking at the bond market and long term interest rates, 30 year Canada bonds are 1.76%. An all time low.

I thought rates could not go lower said many in the last few months and years..
….

Ha you must have missed my call on bond batman. Altho many arm chair economists on here.

Know this many a swap traders and portfolio manager come to this pathetic blog daily and do a ctr+f then type Smoking.

They have made fortunes. And remember I use to work with many of them.

Dr Smoking Man
PHD Herdonomics.

#192 Rexx Rock on 06.15.16 at 4:11 pm

On a fed announcement day buy NUGT,say 50 shares knowing full well there will be no rate hike and make a few hundred dollars.It seems to work all the time.

#193 tkid on 06.15.16 at 4:18 pm

#147, tell the hubby ‘of course we won’t pay anyone else’s mortgage. We’ll move into a properly managed building owned by a corporation.’

He might go for that. Otherwise, try divorce or holding your breath until you turn purple.

#194 Blacksheep on 06.15.16 at 4:31 pm

Rational # 177,

You do know Disney corp. owns website “538”, not to sure how unbiased an opinion you will find there.

Nice disclaimer though:

“You’re going to hear a lot about the Electoral College this cycle. At various points, one state or another will be declared pivotal. But stay calm, especially with so long to go until Election Day.” – Harry Enten
—————————————-
No worries, electors traditionally “honor a pledge” that is until Trump gets an overwhelming popular vote.

That’s when things could get interesting.

Or will they fix that via Diebold?

#195 Arfmooocat on 06.15.16 at 4:35 pm

The rate hike cycle has left the building… please turn out the lights

#196 conan on 06.15.16 at 4:54 pm

Canada betting the farm on innovation. Expect some failure, but hopefully the successes carry the load.

Innovation by necessity, something Harper never understood. He wanted us to jump into the time machine, go back in time, then destroy the time machine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwyRybnBiMI

#197 BOOM! on 06.15.16 at 4:59 pm

As expected, the Yellen saw her shadow… four more weeks of NO interest rate changes.

Markets did what they always do in the face of uncertainty – sold off!!

#198 The American on 06.15.16 at 5:13 pm

At #168: Blacksheep, you are correct in your recap is a raw democracy vs a republic. The United States is a Contitutional Republic, and has always remained this way.

Delegates are intended to vote the way of the constituents they represent, however the are not necessarily obligated to do so (leaving further room for checks and balances, especially in cases where a whack job is present, aka Drumpf). Mark these words, regardless what your press is feeding you, Drumpf will lose considerably to Hillary for a plethora of reasons.

#199 The American on 06.15.16 at 5:15 pm

“…and to the REPUBLIC (not democracy) for which it stands….”

See, right there the U.S. proclaims itself a republic. Never has it been a democracy.

#200 RentYVR on 06.15.16 at 5:21 pm

@#174, my landlord paid over $2mil for our downtown Van townhouse. He didn’t pay cash for it so is paying interest on the mortgage. If you believe that it will continue to appreciate and that he will sell it for a cap gain in the future than yes, he will be better off. However, if you believe that the big gains are in and that the only thing he will generate is my rent (which based on his purchase price is yielding him about 1.8% per year) than the 4% i’m making on my bank divs beat his return any day. My point was that he is financing my yield through his interest payments.

#201 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.15.16 at 6:29 pm

#181 rainclouds on 06.15.16 at 3:12 pm

LOL

I am quite confident the MLS® and REALTORS® will be around for as long as I am in the business of doing what I do.

Of course anyone can try sell their home themselves and I encourage that they should give it a go. It’s an AWESOME education which opens one’s eyes to the value of a good REALTOR®.

#202 Tamsen on 06.16.16 at 2:17 am

“gladiator on 06.15.16 at 3:45 pm

Garth: “There is no data on who owns which homes. You are obsessed. — Garth”

So you are suggesting that locals buy houses to let them sit empty and they live… where?… Even if these owners were local speculators, they would still rent them out to squeeze some dough for mortgage payments, taxes, etc. But they do not even care to bother about peanuts like rental income.
Oh! I know! These are VERY wealthy locals, right?”

Gladiator is correct. We live here and we can all see the 16 year old Asian kids who barely speak English driving (or trying to drive) $500,000 cars around YVR. And there are so many empty homes in all of our nice neighborhoods. Everybody who lives here knows it’s foreign money. Once the data is in, it will be closer to 50%, not 5% …

#203 Dan Duran on 06.16.16 at 3:39 pm

@RentYVR But I wonder, if the RE gains are in, who’s going to cover your cap losses on your bank stocks?