Kids are so damn cute.
When the country’s mortgage brokers, in a survey, asked Next Gens (yeah, the Mills) how they feel about real estate, a majority started to drool, with 72% saying they considered mortgages to be “good debt.” Which is perfect. They’re going to need lots of it.
The average income among the group is $75,000, the amount saved equals $27,000, and the expectations are immense. Over 80% hope their “first home” will be a low-rise dwelling, with 59% expecting it to be a detached house. A mere 18% would prefer a condo. Two-thirds know they will be putting down less than 20% and almost 40% admit they’ll need the Bank of Mom to pull it off. As you can tell, the notion of a ‘starter home’ is kaput.
This all reflects the fact a 26-year-old today has only ever known cheapo mortgage rates, and a real estate market steadily inflating since she was chucking her Tickle Me Elmo. Meanwhile parents have been burrowing deep into a one-asset strategy, while media and governments have been on the front lines of house-humping. So what else do we expect young people to covet? Freedom? Experiences? Adventure? Idealism? Nah. They learned good. They all want mortgages. But just at the wrong moment.
Over the last couple of days your pathetic blog has detailed the reasons current insane conditions, now infecting all of the Lower Mainland ad most of southern Ontario, cannot last. Bankers are craving higher down payments. Credit Unions are scared. There are calls for specker taxes, flipper taxes, cap gains taxes and Chinese dude taxes. The Bank of Canada this week issued a stark warning to people currently buying houses – if you’re expecting prices to rise, don’t. The federal finance minister says Ottawa’s “deep dive” into the housing situation will end up in action. And now T2 himself has thrown out a caution.
“Rising home prices,” he told BNN (which you should never watch), “uncertainty around being able to buy your first home or upgrade as you want to grow a family is a real drag on our economy and a real drag on Canadians’ opportunities.”
Hey, and we all thought real estate was the economy. So when Trudeau talks about nutso valuations like they’re a broken thing the government must fix – given the context of all those other voices – it’s time to pay attention. As we told you two days ago, there are changes coming designed to deflate the market before it blows up and mashes everything with it.
Like it not, Millenials, the next few years may be the worst time in your craven young lives to be diddling with real estate. The housing pendulum has swung so extremely in one direction that the snapback could be dramatic. Consider what the Bank of Canada told us this week:
- A record 15% of all new mortgages in the past year were given to people whose debt equals 450% of their income – that is up by a quarter in a single year.
- The greatest number of these walking dead are in (surprise) Toronto and Vancouver. In the GTA last year a stunning 40% of all new insured mortgages were for 450% or more of a borrower’s total income – an increase of a third in just two years. In YVR these mortgage zombies represent 30% of new borrowers. You can compare this to the average debt-to-income ratio for Canadians as a whole, 164% (also a record).
- Said the bank: “Higher household indebtedness, its growing concentration in highly indebted households and an increase in the proportion of mortgages with riskier characteristics make households more vulnerable… with potential consequences for lenders and mortgage insurers.”
- Here’s one you should fret about: almost 60% of all new uninsured mortgages (taken on houses selling for more than $1 million) have 30 or 35-year amortizations. It means buyers are stretching themselves to the max to get into the market. They may have borrowed, begged or earned the down payment, but the monthly’s a strain. By extending the am, they lower the payment while ensuring they’re screwed over for more interest.
- Finally, our biggest bank (RBC) carries the biggest share (54%) of these uninsured mortgages – the volume of which has grown like a weed as prices rise and after CHMC cut off insurance on any purchase over seven figures.
This is a risk cocktail. Which is what I told the guy I talked to Friday with a house near Cambie, in Van. “It’s nice but nothing special,” he said, “probably a tetar-down if sold. The place across the street, also nothing special, just sold for $2.6 million (after a week on the market – but they had asked for $2.8). The notion of selling it and stashing $2 million in the investment account is compelling but…”
But… everyone’s demented. They expect weekly equity increases. They fear selling because they can’t imagine buying again. “Besides, the government would never consider doing anything that would tank the market, because what would people do??”
We may just find out.
220 comments ↓
This old dude rocks !!!
http://youtu.be/jVPJzmpnmjs
Oh this is too much!
Garth, I listened to the Bank of Canada presentation from yesterday and they also mentioned low liquidity in the bond market. What does that mean and more importantly what does that mean for us?
Bond yields are diving, sell your house and sit on cash for 2 years and then buy the world.
Weak measures, telegraphed well in advance…
resulting in frantic heard driving prices higher.
…Pass me my fiddle.
Garth, did you just use BOLD in your post?!
Yawn,
Continued government inaction. Just words, to be followed by toothless measures, to be followed by more paternalistic warnings, to be followed by increased prices….
Been the same formula and pattern since 2010…
Hind sight is a bitch – and there are going to be people financially ruined just because they got all hot and heavy for a piece of something overvalued
Ummm, correct me if I’m wrong, but should we really be thinking about buying bank shares (preferred or not) when they’re taking risks like that? No wonder their profits are still climbing with the house bubbles in Van and TO.
Pile that on top of the Energy sector loan problems and you’re probably going to be looking at some big problems with their balance sheets.
Everything is rosy on the way up, but not so nice on the way back down…
But… everyone’s demented.
I would have used the word “insane”, but demented works too.
On another note, brother-in-law’s dad sold one of his properties in Richmond Hill… This is an old bungalow in the ghetto-est area of Richmond Hill which he originally bought a few years ago for $500,000 (which I thought was insane then). Well, it sold in less than a week, multiple offers, 10% over ask… Sold for a cool $1.3 million. Dude made $800,000 on this property. I won’t shed a tear if the proud new owner of this piece of crap gets severely punished in the downturn.
These people are off their rockers.
*brother-in-law’s father-in-law.
The National Post has a story on the Energy East Pipeline being put together by Arthur Irving and the Irving people out of Saint John, New Brunswick. The pipeline will transport Alberta heavy crude to the Bay of Fundy through Ontario and Quebec and finally through New Brunswick.
However with the Trudeau/Wynn partnership for a no fossil fuel future Mr. Irving has his work cut out for him at his mature age of 84…I applaud Arthur Irving for continuing to support New Brunswick and Canadian business in spite of being dissed by the Ontario duo of T2/Wynn.
It surely puts salt in the wounds of New Brunswick when after we bent over backwards back in 1867 to make sure we got this country off to a good start and put Ontario first and what did we get….all our business used to be with the New England states and then we were forced to give all our past natural business partners the boot and trade only with the Queen’s English in Ontario. Now 149 years later we would imagine some form of reciprocity in the EnergyEast pipeline but the do-gooders are not budging from their long history of superior sanctity that is so aptly named in “Queen’s Park”. It should have been a more receptive affair with Quebec but some serious horse trading has taken place with the T2 government to keep the Irvings off-balance.
Bienvenue au Canada
Only two words come to mind, after today’s stark post.
“HOLY CRAP”.
This tells the tale: Our genial host:
“A record 15% of all new mortgages in the past year were given to people whose debt equals 450% of their income – that is up by a quarter in a single year.”
WULLY,I just got home from work and I saw your Gordie Howe post.
Before I arrived in Canada I had heard of Wayne Gretzky but not Gordie Howe but have since learnt how much of an icon he was/is.
Anyway WULLY I will do a toast with you celebrating Gordie Howe….you ready…..glass up ….clink…
M41BC
“….As we saw on Thursday, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz appears terrified of disturbing our economic road built on inflated house prices and unsustainable debt…..” – CBC News
_________________________
That’s rich, really rich. An arsonist expressing concern over home fire safety.
Everybody’s demented, c’mon Garth.
Many are demented, some are completely mental.
Act accordingly.
10,000 empty homes “only” in the City of Vancouver. All locals right?
Long time lurker, first time poster.
Can someone please post the link to the website that has all of Garth’s terminology explained on it?
Please and thank you.
* House for sale in Victoria
DAYS ON MARKET: 90
(google the entire next line to view the listing)
795 Gladiola Ave. for sale
Listing ID: 361772
Realtor: “This house is in good condition.”
This house has been sitting on the market for 3 months. The sign in front still states “New Listing”.
Shouldn’t that read “Stale Listing”?
Have you been drinking housing industry Kool-Aid?
Were you under the impression that there were multiple offers on day 1 for every house for sale in Greater Victoria?
Now you know better.
Realtors have been hard at work posting comments on Garth’s blog in an attempt to convince you that you’ll miss out if you don’t buy immediately (FOMO). Ignore their comments.
• Did you know that house prices in Greater Victoria are only 5.8% higher than in 2008? (Based on the Teranet Bank’s house price index April stats).
Here’s the link.
• Victoria is on Garth’s bubbly housing market list along with Vancouver and Toronto.
Canada’s housing bubble is massive.
In recent decades many countries worldwide have had housing bubbles. None of these countries went through soft landings where house prices fell in a soft, controlled manner. There is no example to point out that shows that house prices fell from bubble levels without severely damaging the household finances of a significant chunk of the population.
There really is no reason to think it will be different in Canada. They thought it would be different in Ireland, Japan, the US, Greece, Spain, Iceland, etc., but it wasn’t.
House prices in Victoria will begin falling again. History has shown that housing market conditions always change. Today’s market conditions could change to favour buyers within a matter of months. We’ve seen this happen in recent years in Victoria.
Don’t buy at today’s bubble prices.
Talk is cheap. Yellen, Poloz, Morneau mouth the words but actions speak louder; low interest rates will continue for now. CMHC makes noise about reducing risk but continues to bankroll foreign, non-resident owners (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/moloin/hopr/hopr_008.cfm)to keep them at the table. Genworth Canada isn’t far behind http://genworth.ca/en/products/new-to-canada-program.aspx.. Is Revenue Canada actively pursuing the flippers and “speccers” evading taxes. Who knows. http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-time-to-end-the-honour-system-in-b-c-property-purchases Again, a bit of noise in the press but no apparent enforcement or meaningful convictions. The chartered banks continue to hand out mortgage cash like crack; after all they have no skin in the game if it all goes south . This isn’t the final inning, yet.
Mark Carney’s Bank of Canada spoke of debt bubble warnings all during his 2011 reign. He fled to kingdom of Uck, in shame, for doing nothing other than talk about the danger to the economy, … or maybe he was fleeing a Justice of the Garth Blog arrest warrant.
There is another and more effective way to fix the real-estate markets and create affordability than messing with interest rates and down payments:
Develop more land and infrastructure.
It really is a simple as that. For example, in YYC land prices are high because Carma owns everything surrounding the city and won’t develop it for less than a fortune. In cities like Vancouver they have drastically under-invested in roads and trains so people cannot get around. 2 hour one way commutes are common in some areas so downtown properties become much more valued for lifestyle reasons (who wants to spend 4 hours a day commuting?)
And then we have the city planners themselves. All of the counsellors and the mayor are on the payrolls of the developers, that’s where they get their campaign money. So they don’t approve development any faster than the developer cartels wish.
And then the technical schools contribute by restricting admission into the trades.
Here in YYC the property values went up enormously along the SW leg of the rail system when they built it. But it didn’t get built until certain interests had bought up all the land along the route.
Fixing the above problems would salve the real estate crisis without higher rates. Freeing market forces alone will drive the price of housing down towards the cost of production, without having to play with interest rates.
The auto industry is a good example. Of course cars cost too much because of all the government regulations mandating air bags, anti lock brakes, and other somewhat dubious additions, but you don’t have a bubble in car prices because supply keeps up with demand. The real culprit in the housing disaster we have is not HAM or interest rates, but artificially constrained production. It’s a cartel.
(PS on the cars air bags don’t save lives seat belts do, and they are a lot cheaper. Anti lock brakes might save lives except that everybody started driving faster once they were introduced. It’s like driving home from the ski hill when it’s snowing; most of the vehicles in the ditch are all wheel drive. They can go faster on ice so they do, until they can’t make the corner because they are no better at that than any other car.)
……and just when you thought Brazil was a country worth moving to……
THIS pops up…
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-rio-superbacteria-exclusive-idUSKCN0YW2E8
Morneau going for many beers and knockwurst in Dresden. Its Bilderberg time.
Maybe we will see a new tax on selling primary residential property, owned less than five years. Not sure they want to crash the market. More likely, set it up for a soft landing.
Why are there so many Empty Homes in Vancouver ??
#17 Brazil ex-pat on 06.10.16 at 7:34 pm
“10,000 empty homes “only” in the City of Vancouver. All locals right?”
====================================
And they bought them on their annual 70K salary as an investment, cause there is no other place to put their money. :-)
How can so many people on this blog not comprehend the notion of move-up buyers? — Garth
I live near Fergus-Elora. Drove to town tonite and checked out the local real estate office. Nearly all the listings on their boards were sold and they are desperate for listings. Must be refugees from Toronto and the GTA.
if government intervention moderates the market what would you possibly write about?
How about this one:
All Japanese borrowing costs from overnight to 40 years out are lower than overnight US rates.
Japan 40y yield 0.31%
US o/n Libor 0.38%
So the biggest auto deal in a decade is the hiring of seven hundred programmers (excuse me, “engineers”) over the next few years at GM? Must be; it had Justin and Kathleen gushing.
This whole situation is reminiscent of “The Big Short”!
It’s the banks own stupid fault for lending.
I thought that Rosie’s comment in yesterday’s blog was bang on.
Her quote: Lower the CMHA insurance rate to the local average or $500000, whichever fits. We as a society cannot afford to cover the costs incurred by this greedy bunch of idiots and their equally stupid boomer parents. We can only afford to cover the greedy bankers.
#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.10.16 at 7:41 pm
……and just when you thought Brazil was a country worth moving to……
THIS pops up…
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-rio-superbacteria-exclusive-idUSKCN0YW2E8
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Oh my that is horrible……good thing nothing like that is in North America…..oh wait….
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2016/05/26/the-superbug-that-doctors-have-been-dreading-just-reached-the-u-s/
WHOOPS !!
#25 AK on 06.10.16 at 7:48 pm
Why are there so many Empty Homes in Vancouver ??
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Just a guess here…..they are not locals.
RE #21 Cloom on 06.10.16 at 7:39 pm
My guess is he wanted out of Harperland.
@#12 bigtowne
“It surely puts salt in the wounds of New Brunswick when after we bent over backwards back in 1867 to make sure we got this country off to a good start and put Ontario first and what did we get….”
******************************************
My God man. Stop embarrassing yourself.
Your whinging about financial reciprocity after almost 150 years?( yes folks. Canuckda turns 150 next year no matter how hard Quebec tries).
All so you can ship massive tanker of oil through the Bay of Fundy. A bay that experiences some of the highest tides in the world and some of the most vicious hurricanes imaginable.
Gee what could possibly be wrong with THAT scenario?
I guess old KC irving must be spinning in his grave because he cant control an Ontario politician even after death.
The Irving Family has enough govt money make work projects thank you very much……..unfortunately most of them are behind schedule, overbudget and doomed to fail.
Now if only they could get the Halifax Shipyard to actually start building ships…..
Just did the KISS Expo in Indianapolis. My hostel was in 2014’s “most dangerous neighborhood in America”. That means bike ride the hood for 2 days taking picture after picture of boarded up foreclosed homes. Nice mature neighborhood too. Canada’s future?
Then a week in Toronto. Garth that city is nuts, whacko and electric all at once. And real estate pricing is obscene. That new subway to Concord should keep prices going up.
The Vancouver Province shillpaper has Christie Crunch, NDP’s John what’s his name et al clearly missing the mark on real estate. Plus Nick Vertucci is buying free lunch if you attend his “fortunes in flipping” seminars.
It’s all madness. I remember a seminar in Abbotsford around 2006 (free dinner) schlepping lots/homes in Honduras of all places. Any buyers lost 24 months later.
Interest rates rising will squeeze a few – but I feel massive job losses will be the true nail in the coffin. Real estate is just a sidebar.
I wonder what the buffet is at the seminar. Who said there was no free lunch.
Get in, Get out Get paid. Sad.
We ain’t a-feared of no durn recession here in Nanaimo. We got exports. Really!
Hey, how do you think we can afford to keep going to the stripper bars?
“Tilray begins exporting medical marijuana to Croatia”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tilray-export-marijuana-1.3628554
Learned something new today, most Ontario homeowners rent their hot-water tanks.
Some guy on the radio today predicting 2% 5 year fixed mortgage rate later this year at a bank near you. Yikes.
Here’s one you should fret about: almost 60% of all new uninsured mortgages (taken on houses selling for more than $1 million) have 30 or 35-year amortizations. It means buyers are stretching themselves to the max to get into the market. They may have borrowed, begged or earned the down payment, but the monthly’s a strain
That’s one way to look at it. The other would be to say that those taking these mortgages recognize the incredible bargain current interest rates provide and close instead to put their extra cash away into the balanced portfolio this blog has always espoused.
I have one of those mortgages – presently paying 1.49% until October when expect to renew into a 3 year term paying on the low 2’s. The championed balanced portfolio will give me 6-7% instead. Wife and I together gross enough to pay the house off in a year. The next step would be taking equity out to the balanced portfolio but we’re happy with this middle ground of a long amortization, low rates and bleeding out the loan for now.
Put in the position of the well financed borrower this is a smart play for current conditions.
You sound confused. Amortization does not impact loan rates. — Garth
I was going to invest in a rental property but i bought mawer funds instead. They did so well in the last few years. I should have bought rental properties!
Mutual funds. What did you expect? — Garth
Hi Garth,
Can you share what periodicals and websites you like to read on a daily/weekly/regular basis?
Thanks
(just posted on yesterday’s comments, but still relevant)
Well for what it’s worth, personal anecdote from North Durham region in Ontario:
Good friend, former neighbour, sold house in June 2015 for $405k ….we saw the house re-listed briefly, with a new driveway being the only change, for 498k last month….sold in two days for 512k …..
Planning to list our house as soon as possible, hopefully by July 1st….
#19
Your logic is curious: Because Victoria has already had a correction in RE prices (only 5.8% over 2008), it is due for a correction now? Not only curious logic, but clearly flawed.
Interest rates keep sliding. The longest interest rate today, 30 year Canada bond is all the way down to 1.79%.
I keep hearing interest rates are going to rise. The more you guys say that the more they fall. It looks ridiculous.
Be afraid, very afraid. A Boomer with no pension is coming.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-10/pension-bubble-how-defaults-will-occur-0
WTF is Chris Hatfield doing at Bilderburg.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/06/04/bilderberg%20group_1.jpg
A name was been coined for the next gen behide milenials
Generation Snowflake: Safe Spaces, Trigger Warnings And The Wussification Of Our Young People.
Great Read:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/generation-snowflake-safe-spaces-trigger-warnings-and-the-wussification-of-our-overly-coddled-young-people
Rates not going up, much. Single family homes in Toronto will be average of 1.6 by end of year and 2 million by end of 2017. By end of 2018 should be 2.5 million. Wonder how sitting on the sidelines is working for everyone? No crash. Too many high salaries in Toronto along with a high proportion of crooks, criminals and tax evaders. They need a place to live too. Not enough inventory to go around and never will be. You should have put your faith in action, not preying for locusts.
Back when I was in my early thirties, I bought my first house (a townhouse) for the princely sum of $181,000
I put down $20,000.00. $5000 of that I borrowed off a credit card. $5000.00 was savings, the other $10,000 was from the soon to be Mrs. Goodheart.
Our mortgage interest rate was 9%
People have to start somewhere. A lot of them will get burned. But some, like myself and my wife, will survive and move on to be mortgage-free home owners (we moved to a larger detached house, which we own outright).
This is just the way it is. Go look at a forest. Most of the baby trees get trampled. A few survive.
If you want to live in a place where every tree survives, go to Cuba. Otherwise yes, it’s going to be tough to own a house and a lot of people won’t make it.
#46 Smoking Man on 06.10.16 at 8:50 pm
WTF is Chris Hatfield doing at Bilderburg.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/06/04/bilderberg%20group_1.jpg
—-
Cause only real space pilots get the invite… To discuss which planet they will head to once they have finished off earth.
Realtors are hooked on the commish.
People are hooked on growth promise or scared to be priced out.
Governments are hooked on the taxes and land transfers.
Banks are hooked on interest and offloaded risk.
Economy is hooked on growth, and even with these crazy numbers it is barely pulling out 1%.
Last I looked out of the plane window there is plenty of farmland to convert to town homes and strip malls full of KFC and Tim’s in this second biggest country on the planet. However, because so many have interest in the hype game their words and their actions don’t align. Oh sure they talk the talk to be able to say I told you so later, but as I heard in some 80s movie – talk is cheap.
#18 D_Kat on 06.10.16 at 7:34 pm asked:
Can someone please post the link to the website that has all of Garth’s terminology explained on it?
Sure! The GarthFAQ is what you want.
#16 Long Branch Apprentice on 06.10.16 at 7:32 pm
Everybody’s demented, c’mon Garth.
Many are demented, some are completely mental.
Act accordingly.
…………………….
Being Crazy is amazing and it comes so natural to me.
Being normal requires a tremendous work ethic, something that is definitely missing in my gene pool.
I should be on book number 10 by now. Got enough words on this pathetic blog to fill an encyclopedia.
Pencil in he suffers form instant gratification syndrome. Another no no in the world of the normal’s.
So what does wild Bill do?
I doubt he touches further changes in the down payments.
Sounds like the am period will be cut back to 25 yrs for all mortgages, even insured mortgages.
Shift some CMHC responsibility to the banks?
It is an issue as those monthly mortgage payments could be spent in the economy….but how to throw cold water on the hot market without publicly looking like you did so…..
RBC having 54% of shaky million plus loans. Good for them, hope they take a beating. They won’t though as T2 will enact a bank bail-out courtesy of Joe taxpayer, faster than a facebook selfie. Make no mistake about it, the T2 defecit will grow much bigger, very quickly. No banks will be harmed.
As for the dillusional thinking that T2 will bail them out, good luck with that one. Along with crippling debt service, the new taxes to bail out the banks will be the final blow for many. Savers will be spanked and robbed all in one shot.
#50 Life among the Stars on 06.10.16 at 8:59 pm
#46 Smoking Man on 06.10.16 at 8:50 pm
WTF is Chris Hatfield doing at Bilderburg.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/06/04/bilderberg%20group_1.jpg
—-
Cause only real space pilots get the invite… To discuss which planet they will head to once they have finished off earth.
……………..
You ever heard remote viewing. Phd in that too. Your wearing grey nickers.
I know why he was invited, he has a huge reach to influence millennials.
In the last week or so we have had several banks and credit unions come out and say something has to change in the housing market. We had the BoC call out the bubble. We now have T2, the BC Premier (up for election next year) and the YVR mayor saying something has to change. All have basically said ‘something’ must be done.
We also have public sentiment now going from housing cheer leader to this bubble thing sucks. The only ones left to come out and poo poo this thing are the rich Chinese dudes. Do we see a statement come from China next week?
This thing is done. Only a fool would be long housing now. At least in YVR and YYZ.
RE: #48 Lee:
“Rates not going up, much. Single family homes in Toronto will be average of 1.6 by end of year and 2 million by end of 2017. By end of 2018 should be 2.5 million. Wonder how sitting on the sidelines is working for everyone? No crash. Too many high salaries in Toronto along with a high proportion of crooks, criminals and tax evaders. They need a place to live too. Not enough inventory to go around and never will be. You should have put your faith in action, not preying for locusts.”
You got it bang on. Sure there will be a price correction in Toronto. With like millions of people all trying to buy a few thousand houses.
When you have thirty people bidding for a house, and it sells two days after it is listed, what is the downside? Maybe next time, only twenty people will show up? It’ll take 4 days to sell it?
If it took a month to sell a house in Toronto and there were ten showings and one offer, it still sold, didn’t it? We have a long way to go before we get to that.
You just can’t say that suddenly all of the interest in single detached houses in the “Six” is going to evaporate. It just won’t happen. Prices have gone up because there are too many people vying for too few houses. That isn’t going to change. We can’t build any more houses and the people keep coming.
We still have a relatively loose housing market in Toronto. It is possible to rent a place without having to pay a “key” deposit (go try to rent an apartment in Japan). Condos can still be purchased for under 200K with no competing bids. Toronto is still pretty cheap, housing wise, compared internationally.
We just don’t have a lot of detached houses, relative to the demand. As they stopped building land back in the days of Adam, we are kind of stuck with what we have. As more people come here, these old detached houses from the late 1800’s and early 1900’s are going to become more expensive.
BTW, ever wanted to purchase a Toronto condominium for $60,000? Now you can:
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16874786/304—3390-WESTON-RD-Toronto-Ontario-M9M2X3-Humbermede
How about a gorgeous century home in need of a little TLC for $69,900? Again, in Ontario, anything is possible:
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16769032/220-MARTHA-Street-VICTORIA-HARBOUR-Ontario-L0K2A0
Or a beautiful newly renovated four bedroom townhouse for $32,000? Nope, it’s not 1949 and you’re not dreaming:
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16121287/214-Av-Riordon-T%C3%A9miscaming-Quebec-J0Z3R0
What is the point I am trying to make?
Location, location, location.
That is what determines price. Bricks and mortar have absolutely nothing to do with it.
Ontario real estate is not overpriced.
Location.
#57 BS on 06.10.16 at 9:45 pm
“This thing is done. Only a fool would be long housing now. At least in YVR and YYZ.”
——————————————————–
Been reading the same nonsense on this blog for years. Meanwhile RE has only continued it’s upward trajectory.
I guess only the housing markets are over valued..
Stock markets are just so properly valued as well?
Like houses, some are, some are not. — Garth
RE #46 Smoking Man on 06.10.16 at 8:50 pm
Hatfield is there to jam a tune or two and talk about the Sun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXIjE_gDw94
What are the odds the govt doesn’t interfere?
I hope they don’t. I’ve been standing I the sidelines watching the lemmings leap for too long now. Please don’t use my money to cushion their landing. Am I to be punished for my prudence?
I’ve seen this before in Ireland. It was special there too.
So, let’s see … population growth in the GTA/Golden Horseshoe is scheduled to grow to over 10 million people within 20 years, meanwhile, the greatest transfer of inter-generational wealth is about to be handed down, but demand for housing is about to go over a cliff followed by prices. OK, sure.
Meanwhile in other markets, anemic growth, low rates (who needs savers), deflationary pressures, and nervously volatile equities. No sense of permanence here. Just a gnawing sense that if you don’t qualify to be listed in the Panama Papers, you will be “sold down the river”.
Is it any wonder that people are taking their chances with Real Estate?
Gee wiz, is this what it has come to?…reading real estate blogs on Friday night? I need to get a life!
56 Smoking Man on 06.10.16 at 9:45 pm
#50 Life among the Stars on 06.10.16 at 8:59 pm
#46 Smoking Man on 06.10.16 at 8:50 pm
WTF is Chris Hatfield doing at Bilderburg.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/06/04/bilderberg%20group_1.jpg
—-
Cause only real space pilots get the invite… To discuss which planet they will head to once they have finished off earth.
……………..
You ever heard remote viewing. Phd in that too. Your wearing grey nickers.
I know why he was invited, he has a huge reach to influence millennials.
—
Stargate Project!
#25 AK on 06.10.16 at 7:48 pm
Why are there so many Empty Homes in Vancouver ??
———————————————————–
I’ve lived in Thornhill for 13 years, and I jog the same route every day… While only acedotal, I can report that the same thing is now happening in Thornhill. Over the past few weeks, I’ve started to notice several houses that have sold over the past year, but now sit empty. They are an eye sore to behold with their I overgrown jungles for front yards. This is an area of Thornhill that has multimillion dollar homes. Several houses on my street get torn down and replaced with mansions… So to see a significant percentage of empty homes tells me that whatever is happening in Vancouver is now happening here too.
Also, again, anecdotal, but this past year has seen an influx of people of “asian” descent on my street… something I’ve never seen in 13 years on my street… just my observation.
New Economic Landscape?
Companies and corporations said to be sitting on “mountains of cash”. No hurry to invest. Nobody wants to commit to what may turn out to be a lost highway. New technologies are upending nearly everyone.
Governments had to step in … and spend. When the going gets tough, we are still Keynesians.
This guy nailed Foreign money, Corrupt Realtors and City, Provincial, and Federal governments in Metro Vancouver Housing Market.
Lynda Steele show CKNW Radio show, Vancouver
http://www.cknw.com/audio
10 June 2016
2 pm
At 36.25 minutes
#61 conan on 06.10.16 at 10:14 pm
RE #46 Smoking Man on 06.10.16 at 8:50 pm
Hatfield is there to jam a tune or two and talk about the Sun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXIjE_gDw94
…..
Yeah, Ziggy Stardust wanbee
Meet up with him at sky pilot convention. To hammed to find the selfie at the moment but I posted it here years ago.
We had a chat about UFO’s and aliens. He was flying an F18 that day. Just me and my little old plasma flier.
After a few historical things I said, a few foo fighter explanations, he caved. The interviewer now the interviewee.
Nictonites are real. Hatfield knows it. and the only reason he’s at Bilderburg..
The old mind fked ego maniacs want to know how do we disclose this with out losing their heads.
If I find the pic I will post it on my blog. it will only be up for an hour, I love my privacy.
#45
Funny,I just received cheery letter from my pension plan stating no real changes coming except that death benefits and break in service benefits are being recalculated(50% cut).No more early retirement at 55 earliest is now 60 with an 8% penalty per year before 65 .Feeling pretty secure now that plan has gone from 95% funded(2014)to69.8% funded in two years despite cutting pension benefits by 12.5%.Also now pension is to be funded by a percentage of hourly pay no longer a set amount so if you make more you pay more but receive the same pension as someone making half your pay rate.
This is why I have my own pension plan and would never rely on a company plan.
Should be fun at work on Monday as everyone probably got this letter today too!
How will preferred shares in the big banks fare if this thing crashes?
Common stock will be affected if earnings drop. Preferreds will be unaffected by the housing market. — Garth
PM Harper was right all along about Canada’s involvement in the UN. He refused to hide from the truth.
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/u-n-chief-removes-saudi-led-coalition-from-blacklist-over-threat-to-stop-funding-its-programs
Joe Oliver said no housing bubble when he was in office.
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/5/20/There-is-no-housing-bubble-in-Canada-Finance-Minister-Joe-Oliver-.aspx
Now that he is out of office with his muzzle removed by Harper, he used the inferred there is a “bubble” (not yet burst) to describe GTA and GVA and is now cashing out by listing his home
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/canadas-banks-sound-the-housing-bubble-alarm-finally/
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=887663
To Millmech
All those savings on lower mortgage rates are now being paid back with pension cuts.
People are too naive and financially uninformed.
Early in life on my first big gamble I lost huge.
Went home and lied, she said your lying but I don’t care.
as long as I’m with you.
Next bet….
Millennial men sorry to say you don’t have the same advantage I had.
A big breasted psychopath that loves me UN-Conditionally and lets me experiment.
Drop to your knees and worship teacher Wynee…
To bad Hunter S was not a Canadian, futile inspiration for book food.
Don’t count on me.
#27 Randy – I live near Fergus-Elora. Drove to town tonite and checked out the local real estate office. Nearly all the listings on their boards were sold and they are desperate for listings. Must be refugees from Toronto and the GTA.
************
Moved to Guelph last year. All of the recently arrived in my hood came from Toronto. The Victorian houses on my street are out of reach for most of the locals but for us refugees it was an easy decision. Houses here have spiked in the last 12 months. Word is out. Too bad for many, its a fantastic community and an hour to union on the Via…
The Realtors on here posting their uneducated nonsense are a comedic joke but what can you expect from high school drop outs. The numbers Garth pointed out are beyond scary and point to an epic housing crash. Ratios are beyond the norms and so when the norms are in forced the drop in housing will be sharp and severe. The numbers don’t lie only Realtors and mortgage brokers do.
“#40 Joseph on 06.10.16 at 8:31 pm
I was going to invest in a rental property but i bought mawer funds instead. They did so well in the last few years. I should have bought rental properties!
Mutual funds. What did you expect? — Garth”
Hold the phone there. I’m a certified Financial Trader and use/recommend Mawer Funds myself. They are Morningstar 5* rated and are top of their class. If you have an investment advisor, you can get them as O-Series funds (0.03% MER) + Advisor %.
I hold MAW250 in my TFSA.
Remember folks there is still 2-3 more US fed rate hikes coming this year, US economy is charging ahead, Governor Poloz also mentioned that that yesterday. Position yourself accordingly.
At least Trudeau is acknowledging there’s a problem ,not like the dud he replaced.
62 Johnny Irish on 06.10.16 at 10:20 pm
What are the odds the govt doesn’t interfere?
I hope they don’t. I’ve been standing I the sidelines watching the lemmings leap for too long now. Please don’t use my money to cushion their landing. Am I to be punished for my prudence?
I’ve seen this before in Ireland. It was special there too
Johnny Irish, bears have been calling for this party to end for 10 years. Prices in Van have rises almost continuously for 16 years after flatlining /slightly declining in the 90’s. I think this market IS different from the Celtic Tiger’s bubble and crash. Interest rates are basically zero and show no signs of increasing significantly enough to make a difference. Although they don’t entirely drive the market in Van, foreign Chinese buyer can’t get to Van fast enough, and they provide the spark that keeps local specuvestors feeling confident – and it’s all about confidence. This leads now to regular Joes panic buying at inflated, over-bid prices.
What do you see changing that will bring this to an end? Remember, you’d need to see a 50% price correction just to bring prices in the Lower Mainland back to where most bears refused to buy in the first place because they thought it was a bubble.
Posted yet?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/metro-vancouvers-detached-house-owners-are-under-attack/article30402187/
#37 Mean Gene – Learned something new today, most Ontario homeowners rent their hot-water tanks.
******
Let me teach you something else today Mean Gene…most of those water heaters are rented by a company called Enercare. It kicks off a 5.6% yield which has grown (relatively modestly) for the past 8 years. In addition to the yield growth since I bought this in 2011 its increased in price by 243%. My effective yield is north of 15%. And its a much better, stronger, diversified company than it was when I bought it..(presence in the US, more recurring rev, partnership with Enbridge). My only worry is with this company is when it gets bought out and my tax liability.
CMHC is the problem
blah blah blah blah blah…bam, mortgage paid off, bam, prices double …
For #68 Brydle604, I listened to the Lynda Steele show. Very interesting. Funny how it takes an outsider from the US to state the obvious about Vancouver’s housing market. Six months ago you couldn’t get a politician to acknowledge there was a problem, but after the G&M article about shadow flipping, now everyone has got something to say. Problem is they have no clue what to do. The ship sailed too long ago so if it all comes crashing down, it will be a disaster of biblical proportions. No politician wants to be the cause of that.
This will be fun to watch.
happy birthday Q2!
it MUST be gin-o’clock somewhere…
I love how nobody even fathoms the concept of peak debt, there is point at which the well runs dry. You want to see housing implode, economicide style, that’s it.
The point at which no sane lender even with government guarantees, believes in the ability of the borrower to pay back the principal let alone the interest.
Kafreaking boom. Moisters can’t borrow 250k to bid on 1 milly homes, your 1 milly home suddenly has a market value of 249,999. Dafrig else needs to be said?
WARNING!!! LONG IRRELEVANT COMMENT BELOW!!
SCROLL BABY SCROLL IF STUPID STUFF DOES NOT MATTER TO YOU!!
I just had a few memories that struck me as comical. Maybe others might enjoy them.
1. When you start a lawsuit against the government here in Alberta, you name the Queen as a Defendant, i.e. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Alberta. Each pleading in other civil suits will start with the obligatory paragraph “The Defendant is an individual residing in the City of Calgary, in the Province of Alberta.”
Once a clever lawyer when drafting a pleading naming Liz as a Defendant pleaded “The Defendant is a married woman who lives in Buckingham Palace.”
2. When you are admitted to the Law Society of Alberta as a Barrister & Solicitor, you become a Commissioner of Oaths and a Notary Public automatically. Legal assistants (etc.) that become a Commissioner of Oaths have a stamp that reads, in part, “…my appointment expires on [such and such a date]” My father had a stamp prepared for me which read, “My appointment expires at the Pleasure of Her Majesty the Queen.”
Happy 90th Liz!!!
3. The old man was an avid photographer. He scoffed at the nature photographers who took photos of wildlife (elk, bears etc) in National Parks. We had a darkroom in our basement. He had a stamp made to ink the back of photos he took of animals near Banff that read:
“FAKE – Taken in National Park.”
Sorry to bore you but all this nonsense about real estate in Vancouver and Toronto is boring the tits off me. In the long run, none of the current madness matters, to me at any rate.
Just can’t decide?
1)
http://www.remax.ca/bc/vancouver-real-estate/na-2348-oliver-crescent-na-crea_id17043011-lst/
2)
http://crestrealtywestside1.britishcolumbia.remax.ca/listing/144804475-150112747/3538-w-29th-avenue-vancouver-bc-v6s%201t3/
Both offer so much, but the mortgage helper is hard to pass up on #1
72% of mills think mortgages are good debt, while I have no conception of there being any good debt.
For myself, I prefer having cash flow, cash, and assets, with 0 debt. But then again, I live to enjoy every day to the max, right now, while operating as if I am going to live forever. Maybe that has something to do with me having 0 fear and 0 greed. I have been Blessed. Freedom.
Common stock will be affected if earnings drop. Preferreds will be unaffected by the housing market. — Garth
Thanks Garth:
Heeded your advice about preferreds last year, bought a bunch when they were undervalued – they are doing quite well, averaging 5-6 %, with tasty dividends. Can’t be more happy!
Is now still a decent time (with this looming RE crash) to get some more for RRSP portfolio?
Small town Ontario life is still both affordable and wonderful. My kids spent a few years in Cambridge, Ontario and it was like going back in time. I returned there a few weeks ago and not much changed, kids still playing out on the road till dark. There is a huge world outside of the TO. Find another line of work and move.
We were checking out house prices in Kingston for a fantasy summer house and it is amazing what you can get for $450,000. We are talking 4 bed detached, big lot on waterfront. This only buys a one bed condo in Port Credit, Mississauga.
Kids get out of TO and build a better, less polluted life.
Bought a 17’x80′ lot 2Br 1 Bath detached 2 story house with finished dry basement and dual rear parking off ally, 3 Blk to Pier4 Hamilton, 6 Blk to GO. Its nice. $177k 2 years ago. Same type house next door Just listed @$289K! Will be taking head count from open house! Its gettin crazy but Hamilton is still ‘doable’ for first -timers, barely.
RBC uninsured loans
RBC bank is leveraged just over 20 times common equity though it is closer to “just” 10 times on a risk weighted (I. E sanctioned pretend) basis.
I view as probably a quite good investment but with a non-zero chance of blowing its brains out due to leverage and bad debt. This is where diversification can come in handy.
May Jobs Report slightly positive (although gains in free spending public sectors, private had negative job creation).
May GDP, which lags Jobs Report by 1 month, will probably be slightly +/-; hence, near 0 growth economy (slightly negative last 2 months) and thus people are hanging on.
Only a severe job loss recession will create the scenario you wrote about yesterday and write about today.
We are not there yet…but getting there as there is little good news economically whether it be domestic or international.
Invest for yield
The various restaurant royalty fund have been quite good investments and will almost certainly continue to be. Barring big interest rate increases. These skim a franchise fee off the top and are almost bond like but no maturity
Real estate will continue to do what it has done long enough. We will continue to be in debt long enough..
This will make your morning shine.
Tallent mixed in with philosophy.
Only 12 years old. There is a slight glimmer of hope for humanity.
Enjoy.
https://youtu.be/eNxO9MpQ2vA
The numbers are undeniable.
This bubble has been allowed to inflate for far too long.
CMHC is to blame.
Banks are to blame.
Harper and Flaherty are to blame.
The Bank of Mom and Dad is to blame.
Stupid economic illiteracy is to blame.
In the end, it barely matters who is to blame.
*************************************
This will be MUCH WORSE than the 1990-1994 meltdown.
This will be MUCH WORSE than the 2007-2011 U.S. crash……we have let this bubble grow far bigger than theirs, and Canadians are pickled in more debt than Americans were. Our economy is less resilient, and apart from oil we have let our manufacturing base erode during the Harper years. Jobs are simply not going to be there to support these valuations.
We are NOT immune from subprime problems. We HAVE these kinds of lenders now.
PLUS, isn’t the truth that CMHC really acts EXACTLY like a subprime lender, isolating banks from risk and promoting a bubble?
The peak has come.
The descent is beginning.
20-30% drop by 2017.
Much worse, soon after. Even in the “best” 416 areas.
The 905 will be devastated.
We are so screwed.
Risk really underpins the whole housing market and has for a long time. People have taken massive risk (flipping homes, over-extending etc.) and I don’t think really knew what they were putting on the line.
Now risk has extended to our average families buying for the first time, moving up, or who have used their houses as ATMs.
I think a good move by the feds would be to change the capital gains exemption to 5 years, that is, you don’t pay tax on housing gains if you’ve lived in your place for at least 5 years. Rent controls could be tightened too to ensure affordable housing for those choosing to rent.
And imagine netting $2.5 million just by selling your house (equals a decent lotto ticket winning–the odds of winning that amount via the lotto is about 1 in a hundred million). Thst person can take the winnings, buy a nice 4 bedroom home in just about any city across Canada for $500k, and retire and live off the invested $2 million…seems like a no brainer.
If median income of Canadians is yearly around 80-100k and homes in GTA are trading a 10x multiple of this, no reason why reversion to 5x is not a possibility.
See: Iceland, Ireland, USA…
We are after all a dominated British slave colony.
Why it’s in the open, to wit: Power Corp. (elites’ business).
They even own IG…(fat divvy)
Behold our tax farm ownership chart:
https://www.powercorporation.com/en/companies/organization-chart/
Here’s one you should fret about: almost 60% of all new uninsured mortgages (taken on houses selling for more than $1 million) have 30 or 35-year amortizations
———–
Yikes!
Re: #92 Jane 24
Small town Ontario life is still both affordable and wonderful. My kids spent a few years in Cambridge, Ontario and it was like going back in time. I returned there a few weeks ago and not much changed, kids still playing out on the road till dark. There is a huge world outside of the TO. Find another line of work and move.
——————————————————————
So simple yet so brilliant. I read this blog and the comments regularly, and continually think to myself: “What’s the problem?!!?”. Really, who says one has to live in any particular city? If you can’t afford one place, live in another. That’s it. If you can’t afford a BMW, drive a KIA. If you can’t afford filet mignon, eat hamburger. If you can’t afford a Louis Vuitton handbag, buy a Roots purse. This has nothing to do with the requirement of government intervention or market manipulation. Nobody is entitled to anything. You just figure it out on your own. If you can’t afford a house in Toronto or Wetcouver, buy one in a smaller town in less demand. If you can’t afford that, buy a condo. If you can’t afford that, rent a place. Just live within your means and stop grasping and desiring things beyond your reach. Desire is the cause of all suffering. Just stop it. Work as hard as you can. Do your best at what you do. Use whatever income you make to enjoy your life as much as possible within the parameters of your income, and do not take on unreasonable debt. That is the only way to live a happy and stress free life. Desire, craving, grasping, reaching, keeping up with the Joneses, and living beyond your means under a black cloud of debt will lead to suffering, misery, unhappiness, stress, and a shorter life. Relax. Go with the flow. Don’t follow the heard. Create your own space. Be a pioneer. http://www.zenheadspace.com
#71 jed on 06.10.16 at 11:08 pm
How will preferred shares in the big banks fare if this thing crashes?
Common stock will be affected if earnings drop. Preferreds will be unaffected by the housing market. — Garth”
But if interest rates rise, won’t preferred shares take a whack.
The opposite. — Garth
It’s just too bad (especially after seeing what occurred with US housing) that many leaders in Canada wouldn’t at least insist on better market data, in advance of constructing effective policy.
Which unfortunately leaves us with the unofficial policy when a bubble bursts:
Call out the Mop & Bucket Brigade…
‘Affordable’ housing goes far beyond prices and interest rates
“This is why a new measure was introduced, the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis’s Shelter Consumption Affordability Ratio (SCAR) index. SCAR measures the proportion of income that households devote to their shelter-related needs (including transportation, utilities and maintenance) after paying for other necessities (such as health care, food and child care).
So while other affordability indexes currently sit just above their long-term averages, SCAR is at an all-time high, rising quickly over the past 10 years. Today, after purchasing other necessities, a typical Canadian household spends nearly 40 cents of every dollar of income it has left over on shelter – but this is a highly aggregated average. By disaggregating these data, we learn that a quarter of Ontario households are spending more than 60 cents of every discretionary dollar on shelter! And this is an average, too – many households spend more. ”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/affordable-housing-goes-far-beyond-cost/article30384277/
FOMO alert: The Overinflated Fear of Being Priced Out of Housing
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/upshot/the-overinflated-fear-of-being-priced-out-of-housing.html?_r=1
#89 CA on 06.11.16 at 2:10 am
Just can’t decide?
1)
http://www.remax.ca/bc/vancouver-real-estate/na-2348-oliver-crescent-na-crea_id17043011-lst/
2)
http://crestrealtywestside1.britishcolumbia.remax.ca/listing/144804475-150112747/3538-w-29th-avenue-vancouver-bc-v6s%201t3/
Both offer so much, but the mortgage helper is hard to pass up on #1
—————————————-
I’ll take #2 for $5.5 million… although realistically, it will probably go for at least $7 million. But it’s a steal even at $7 million because it will be worth $10 million by August… $20 million by next summer… or, hold onto to it for 3-4 years and cash out for $100 million. Or wait 10 years and it will go for around a billion.
Easy money.
Few scary questions this a.m.:
Q: Do RE Agents lie? Do they tell you there are “showings” booked for next day and then when you ask them for feedback from said showings, they reply “oh, I will check on that. I didn’t book any showings. Maybe my partner booked that showing.”
Q: Do RE Agents know how to spell & construct proper sentences in English as part of their licensing? Do they send you “update” texts that, when read, make little to no sense to the average intellect?
Q: Do RE Agents tell you during a “listing meeting” that “your house will garner multiple offers and sell in days”? Then days go by and you don’t ever hear from your Agent never mind an offer.
Asking for a friend….
*****
PS: reluctant to say more for my friend as he believes his newly hired (soon to be fired) RE team reads/follows this blog…..
RE: “But… everyone’s demented. They expect weekly equity increases. ”
We don’t. I wish our house would STOP going up in value. Seriously. Just got our MPAC assessment, they have added another 200K to the value of the house, phased in over a period of years. Ridiculous. How do they know what it’s worth anyway? It’s only got value if we put it up for sale and find a buyer. If not, then it’s just a pile of bricks. Might be worth nothing at all.
Also our stupid “gentrifying” neighbourhood is going all silly. Used to be everyone worked together, if someone had a backyard party, and it was a little loud, then everyone would just put up with it (and a lot of us would actually crack open a beer, walk over, and participate in the festivities). It was really good. Now we are getting the wealthy “complainers”. Ridiculous. Preferred the old ‘hood to this new “gentrified” B.S. We pay more property tax, for living with rich idiots.
Yeah, want prices to go down. Want the old neighbourhood back.
Smokey is that your Ford Ranger in today’s photo?
Mr. Turner
In line with your advice to ease up on Maple, how about a dissertation in regard to the tax implications of foreign capital gains and income?
What investment vehicles can a lowly Canuck carry that won’t negatively impact their warm and friendly relationship with CRA?
What are the easiest ways to expand beyond Canadian holdings (other than directly buying US equities) while avoiding excess taxation?
Sure, buy US and international-exposure ETFs in C$. — Garth
90 Freedom First on 06.11.16 at 3:27 am
72% of mills think mortgages are good debt, while I have no conception of there being any good debt.
For myself, I prefer having cash flow, cash, and assets, with 0 debt. But then again, I live to enjoy every day to the max, right now, while operating as if I am going to live forever. Maybe that has something to do with me having 0 fear and 0 greed. I have been Blessed. Freedom.
Freedom, but many who bought SFH’s in Van 5 years ago HAVE FREEDOM now if they sell and move elsewhere because their highly-leveraged homes have doubled in price. That’s when we were calling them fools for jumping in at the top of the market. Now they have the freedom to cash out and move somewhere cheaper outside of the LM. If they don’t chose to do that at this moment then that’s their risk and choice.
@#108 Ace Goodheart
Then sell. Reap the obscene profits and move to where all your former neighbors now live and rent for a year or two until the sanity returns.
@#31 Brazil ExPat
Well its good to know that you think that Superbug bacteria floating in the cesspool known as Brazils #1 tourist beaches aka… Olympic rowing venues… aka the ocean is comparable to a ward in a US hospital…..
Frog meet slowly heating pot of water.
Methinks you’ve become desensitized to the failing state of Brazil and no longer hear the endless negative news about the dismal economy, the corruption, the rising unemployment ….
But the girls are HOT!
No worry.
Party like its 1999.
Brazilian constitutional reform will occur Aug 31st……several weeks AFTER the Olympic “Party” is over….severe fiscal changes, cutbacks to Education, Health and welfare payments…… then the riots will begin in earnest.
Hide your pots and pans or they’ll be beaten to death in a cacophany of outraged indignation at the end of the unaffordable socialist agenda foisted upon the country for the past decade. Lula! Lula! Lula! Bring back Lula! If he’s not in jail by then… next to Dilma….
Socialist “Utopia” meets fiscal “Reality”
Kinda like Venezuela……only with food.
#15 MSM-Free Zone on 06.10.16 at 7:30 pm
” “….As we saw on Thursday, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz appears terrified of disturbing our economic road built on inflated house prices and unsustainable debt…..” – CBC News
_________________________
That’s rich, really rich. An arsonist expressing concern over home fire safety.”
Especially considering that the alarm was bypassed with stupid low interest rates.
Excellent metaphor!
100 Bottoms Up: And imagine netting $2.5 million just by selling your house (equals a decent lotto ticket winning–the odds of winning that amount via the lotto is about 1 in a hundred million). Thst person can take the winnings, buy a nice 4 bedroom home in just about any city across Canada for $500k, and retire and live off the invested $2 million…seems like a no brainer.
What you say makes total sense but people are locked into their local area because of financial ignorance, friends, families, their kids friends and extra-curricular activities, and just plain old fear of the unknown. It takes a lot to move your family to a new place where you don’t know anyone.
People i speak with (in Vancouver) who have $1m+ of equity always say, “But if i sell, where will i go? Everything else is just as expensive. You’ve gotta live somewhere.”
“Besides, the government would never consider doing anything that would tank the market, because what would people do??”
Exactly !!!
And that’s EXACTLY why it’ll be a big smoking hole in the ground. Governments are inept, slow to react and with no vision beyond next election cycle.
You Gartho baby worked for one :)
Government’s role should only be making sure that all the kids in the sandbox play by the same rules. Anything else NICHT !
All the recessions are part of the normal business cycle.
DEPRESSIONS were all with no exception , the results of the gov mixing in the market, either by fiscal policy, or by giving preferential treatment to some vs others, etc.
Long live socialism…for is amongst us. ..and morons will pay while smart people collect and punch out.
#100 Bottoms_Up on 06.11.16 at 8:46 am
“I think a good move by the feds would be to change the capital gains exemption to 5 years, that is, you don’t pay tax on housing gains if you’ve lived in your place for at least 5 years.”
—
I understand why you want to propose this, but 5 years is too much. This would discourage mobility by forcing people to stay in one spot when there might be quite legitimate reasons for moving after just 3 or 4 years.
#24 conan on 06.10.16 at 7:43 pm
“Morneau going for many beers and knockwurst in Dresden. Its Bilderberg time.
Maybe we will see a new tax on selling primary residential property, owned less than five years. Not sure they want to crash the market. More likely, set it up for a soft landing.”
They’d LIKE to see (read “engineer” LOL) a soft landing, but it won’t happen. The fiscal runway is pock-marked with debt, incoming debt and more debt from interest, courtesy of a government that has seriously lost its way. Oh, and let’s not forget the continuous loss of mortgage-worthy jobs. Shadow lenders are now a force to contend with.
It can’t always get what it wants……
It is not just people who bought 5 years ago. Over 95% of people who own in YVR could cash out and either rent or move away and have a significant nest egg. Once the herd believes the market has stopped going up all we need is a few percent of those 95% to decide to cash out and pop goes the bubble.
It is different at this point compared to other years because prices went up 30% in the last year (including condos and Fraser Valley properties) so even those who bought just a year ago are in a position to cash out. With the recent run up we have an unprecedented amount of home owners in a position to cash out and make a killing. In previous bubble years it was only those who owned for 5 years or more where it made sense to cash out net of transaction costs. Or it was just small segments of the market like Westside SFHs that went up in double digits in a year. Now we have pretty much every type of housing across the Lower Mainland up 30% year over year. There are way more people in a position to cash out and it is not just boomers who have lived in the same house for 30 years. It is younger people more able and willing to move. It is not possible for even a small percentage to cash out without crashing the market. A small shift in sentiment and pop it goes.
All of you predicting a massive correction and crash secretly want to buy real estate. Just admit it.
Central banks and the feds have talked down the market since Carney and F’s days. They don’t have as much influence as impressing your in laws and parents and friends does.
The mania won’t end until you’re the greater fool buying.
Garth, tell Cambie house guy I’ll sell him my place for a mill and he can have 50% of his NW in RE and 50% in a folio making 45k per year tax free.
Blog dogs helping blog dogs
Not only am I expecting the Euro 2016 soccer tournament to have an effect on approximately 20% of the Brexit vote I am also hopeful it will kick start the euro economy as my Europe fund has been circling the drain
The tournament has been expanded from 16 to 24 countries and over a one month period there will be 51 games played in 10 venues in 9 different cities in France.
Spend baby spend…
M41BC
Everything the government did either poured more gas on the fire, like 40-yr mortgages and rate cuts, or didn’t even slow the market down, like the more recent reduction of mortgage terms and increase of downpayments required. The RE market is now completely decoupled from what the government does. Only the bond market could influence it via much higher rates, but what’s the probability of that? Right – nil or close to that. The Fed rising rates will be too small (provided that Canada follows suit) to have any significant effect on our RE market.
The party will go on for several more years, that’s for sure.
Just more double talk from our government and their ally bankers and RE cartels.
Just wait for the new condos sprouting up in Calgary to be filled with HAM and others looking to get/hide money from taxes while they take bribes under the table while shaking their heads claiming we are not sure what is driving RE, and oh we just don’t keep stats on that stuff.
Human greed and corruption never changes the world over.
Well I guess according to this article we should be sorry for the poor home owners we have amassed high tax bills in Vancouver. Let’s all try to make this “fair” for everyone? ??
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/metro-vancouvers-detached-house-owners-are-under-attack/article30402187/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe
I am going through a step process to this selling my house idea….11 years here and I’ll never find one like it again. ..but should we decide to pull the trigger how much time do we have. I am hoping you say 1 to 2 years.
#89 CA on 06.11.16 at 2:10 am
Just can’t decide?
1)
http://www.remax.ca/bc/vancouver-real-estate/na-2348-oliver-crescent-na-crea_id17043011-lst/
2)
http://crestrealtywestside1.britishcolumbia.remax.ca/listing/144804475-150112747/3538-w-29th-avenue-vancouver-bc-v6s%201t3/
Both offer so much, but the mortgage helper is hard to pass up on #1
=============
#2 is underpriced. Asking should be $5,888,888
In 416 all they have to do scrap the so called ‘green belt’, build more up the 400, scrap all the ‘consevation authorites’ etc. In niagara,simcoe etc.
=more houses, more mortgages, more jobs.
#99 60% Drop Coming To 416
Yes! Well said!
And I’m glad you said it so eloquently. If written by me, the language I would have used to convey this message would have had me DELETED.
#78 A Canadian Abroad writes:
…Mutual funds. What did you expect? — Garth”
Hold the phone there. I’m a certified Financial Trader and use/recommend Mawer Funds myself. They are Morningstar 5* rated and are top of their class. If you have an investment advisor, you can get them as O-Series funds (0.03% MER) + Advisor %.
I hold MAW250 in my TFSA.
Me too and I’m plenty OK in the well situated department.
Lots of experts posting on here but that doesn’t mean that the experts are correct in all cases, eh?
“It is different at this point compared to other years because prices went up 30% in the last year (including condos and Fraser Valley properties) so even those who bought just a year ago are in a position to cash out”
Actually prices on identical properties haven’t moved much at all in the past 3-4 years in Vancouver. There is no windfall available to the average homeowner over that interval. The alleged ‘increases’ that we see in the newspapers are almost entirely on account of the market itself shifting to the upmarket percentiles of the overall housing stock, as well as new supply coming to market. Additionally, there is significant evidence of “flipping rings” where houses are merely being flipped back and forth between semi-related parties to create the appearance of rising prices. Transactions that are, of course, not available to people who aren’t insiders.
Why is this taking place? Well certain ethnicities of Canadians in Vancouver, historically, have had a difficult time in the labour market. So they’ve taken up landlording and speculation to fill the income gap and make a living in Canada, keeping their families employed. Being that they are highly leveraged into often dozens of rental properties, and given that most rentals in Vancouver are barely even cashflow-positive, the only way they can make money at this point is through rising prices and rising amounts of mortgage credit on those properties. So that’s exactly what they’re doing through flipping amongst themselves. Keeping the bankers happy by giving them the allusion of a more valuable property. Only problem is, its not really truly arms-length.
For example, a few months ago, I cited the case of “Khalid”, a property speculator in Vancouver. Quoted in the Globe and Mail as saying, ““It worries me a lot that this could all come crashing down. I worry about it all the time,” said one Re/Max agent, Khalid Hasan, who said he owns or co-owns 15 to 20 properties, all destined for resale.”
Of course, “assignment flipping” is one of the tools used as it basically is an attempt to evade CRA detection so these flipping folks might get away with not paying income and capital gains tax. But make no mistake, these are not true arms-length transactions. And what you read in the ‘headlines’ of the Vancouver RE-pumping newspapers does not reflect the reality “on the ground” for a single average SFH owner.
@#99.
A more likely version is
1- demand for higher wages.
2- more inflation.
3– currency devaluation ( cut some Zeros off)
The value of property will be constant.
The price will change
“In 416 all they have to do scrap the so called ‘green belt’, build more up the 400, scrap all the ‘consevation authorites’ etc. In niagara,simcoe etc.”
Why? There’s no physical shortage of housing units. The current bubble is entirely attributable to speculation, and overly-optimistically low discount rates applicable to housing investment.
If there was a physical shortage of places to live, then rents would be skyrocketing. But rents aren’t even, at this point, keeping up with inflation. So what we have is pretty much entirely a case of credit, particularly subprime credit, being far too easily and readily available.
In fact, once Flaherty (RIP) cracked down on subprime credit expansion by tightening up the rules at Canada’s largest participant in the subprime credit marketplace, the CMHC, housing prices basically stopped rising in 2013. Now all we’re left with are phantom ‘increases’ not available to individual homeowners on account of the drastically shifted sales mix. The USA collapse in 2008-2009, roughly 3-4 years post-USA subprime peak (~2004-2005) taught us that it doesn’t end well, particularly in the suburbs. And this time around, the BoC is rather limited in its available policy responses.
Oh Garth, people don’t actually plan on paying off their mortgages these days, not when home values are increasing as fast as they have. Paying off the mortgage is secondary to capital gains from owning, especially when money is virtually free. Lots of spec going on out there and it has paid to be on that side of the fence.
What fund is Mawer 250. I don’t recognize it. Thanks in advance!!!
#130 Mark on 06.11.16 at 3:59 pm
“It is different at this point compared to other years because prices went up 30% in the last year (including condos and Fraser Valley properties) so even those who bought just a year ago are in a position to cash out”
Actually prices on identical properties haven’t moved much at all in the past 3-4 years in Vancouver. There is no windfall available to the average homeowner over that interval. The alleged ‘increases’ that we see in the newspapers are almost entirely on account of the market itself shifting to the upmarket percentiles of the overall housing stock, as well as new supply coming to market. Additionally, there is significant evidence of “flipping rings” where houses are merely being flipped back and forth between semi-related parties to create the appearance of rising prices. Transactions that are, of course, not available to people who aren’t insiders.
Why is this taking place? Well certain ethnicities of Canadians in Vancouver, historically, have had a difficult time in the labour market. So they’ve taken up landlording and speculation to fill the income gap and make a living in Canada, keeping their families employed. Being that they are highly leveraged into often dozens of rental properties, and given that most rentals in Vancouver are barely even cashflow-positive, the only way they can make money at this point is through rising prices and rising amounts of mortgage credit on those properties. So that’s exactly what they’re doing through flipping amongst themselves. Keeping the bankers happy by giving them the allusion of a more valuable property. Only problem is, its not really truly arms-length.
For example, a few months ago, I cited the case of “Khalid”, a property speculator in Vancouver. Quoted in the Globe and Mail as saying, ““It worries me a lot that this could all come crashing down. I worry about it all the time,” said one Re/Max agent, Khalid Hasan, who said he owns or co-owns 15 to 20 properties, all destined for resale.”
Of course, “assignment flipping” is one of the tools used as it basically is an attempt to evade CRA detection so these flipping folks might get away with not paying income and capital gains tax. But make no mistake, these are not true arms-length transactions. And what you read in the ‘headlines’ of the Vancouver RE-pumping newspapers does not reflect the reality “on the ground” for a single average SFH owner.
////////////////////////////////
When I see you do a post like this I realize how contradictory we are.
You are an intelligent guy who says a lot of dumb things.
I,on the other hand am a dumb guy who occasionally comes up with something intelligent…
M41BC
Brexit update.
Well England just blew a lead in the last minute off the game and had to settle with a draw.
Wales,earlier in the day won but with only 5% of the British population it really is all about England.
The was no controversy of the result of England’s game,just bad luck but this plays into the leave side of the referendum…
Marseille will be glad to see the back of the supporters as they were not well behaved the last few days and the riot police were called in.
The English can’t handle their sun…
M41BC
“When I see you do a post like this I realize how contradictory we are.”
So your disagreement with me is????
Garth provides a fairly open forum here. So what in my post is a “dumb thing”?
You see, my theory of the Vancouver RE marketplace fully explains why consumer spending is stagnating/falling, and economic confidence low. It explains the Vancouver “headlines” without resorting to hare-brained and easily disprovable theories involving “Chinese”. It is backed up by a real quote from a Canadian citizen speculator in a major newspaper. It explains why “assignment flipping” is occurring rather than the sellers (and their fiduciaries) seeking out the full market price for their property initially — basically efforts to exaggerate transactional volume, prices, and avoid land transfer and other taxes. It ties in well with Ross Kay’s research (largely reflecting my own) of the sales mix shift being the dominant factor in “rising prices”. And it encompasses the extreme amounts of mortgage credit outstanding against the Canadian RE marketplace — something which simply doesn’t make sense if we presume that “foreign money” is driving things.
Last but not least, I can offer an explanation, through such theory, as to why there is minimal rent inflation.
So please do tell, what’s so ‘dumb’ about offering up a unifying theory of all the variables that we know to be the case concerning the Canadian (Vancouver) housing markets?
Mark,I would answer your questions but when was the last time on here that someone changed your mind?
There are no “flipping rings” selling property to each other just to inflate the prices.
Just a heap of foreign investment,locals that have turned buying a house into a blood sport and cheap credit.
The speculators don’t have to pump up the prices as every other idiot is doing their work for them…
M41BC
And now T2 himself has thrown out a caution.
“Rising home prices,” he told BNN, “uncertainty around being able to buy your first home or upgrade as you want to grow a family is a real drag on our economy and a real drag on Canadians’ opportunities.”
credit where credit is due. Stephen Harper never talked about house prices.
it’s easy to be cynical. Like Homer Simpson: son I know it’s easy to criticize, so I do.
like Nero: Weak measures, telegraphed well in advance
like Toothless Measures: Continued government inaction. Just words, to be followed by toothless measures, to be followed by more paternalistic warnings, to be followed by increased prices….
and suppose the measures have teeth? There are host of critics who will say that they were not properly calibrated, they resulted in a real estate crash that negatively impacted the whole economy. Who the hell knows? Nobody knows! Real measures to stop this beast is what is needed right now!
missed “end of italics html code”
Got it. — Garth
Mark,
The reason people get upset with you is because you’re a straight up liar.
I have been scraping data off realtor.ca and tosolds for years and for you to say that there’s been no appreciation on like for like properties in Toronto for 2-3 years is a rage inducing lie.
You fng lie. Anyone who is serious about buying and has collected data knows you are lying and it is infuriating.
#99,
Tell that to all the money in Toronto. Sfhs in town will never drop. EVER. Too much money in Toronto. Only about 200,000 sfhs anyone cares to live in in Toronto. Just old money will keep those afloat, not to mention all the professionals, teachers, first responders, gvt workers, entrepreneurs, crooks, tax evaders and criminals. I think old money probably owns 50,000 sfhs in Toronto and can buy their kids 50,000 mores. I forgot professors, foreigners, strippers, professional athletes, musicians, cp24 and ctv and tsn anchors, and lest we forget real estate agents. You don’t think there are 100,000 sfhs to be bought and kept a float by all these people. If Toronto were some small town, present valuations could be an issue. The longer you wait for a crash the longer your headache is going to be. Stop waiting for a miracle. Ain’t never gonna happen.
#127 dr. Talc
Pave Paradise?
Ross Kay just emailed me and said he is willing to chuck $75 into the kitty to help Mark get dart lessons and learn how to hit the dartboard.
His two conditions are you help him fix his pinball machine….. and the hole in his pants…
M41BC
Have patience. It will all work out in the end. Everything always reverts to the mean. Unfortunately for those who have recently purchased Wetcouver or Toronto residential real estate, the reversion to the mean is going to be more of “snap back” that’s gonna hurt and leave a mark. More like a scar. If you have been foolish enough to have paid current real estate prices and taken on a fat mortgage, get some scuba gear and learn how to use it. You will be UNDERWATER for a long time to come. Listen to Garth. If you don’t, you are an idiot. His words are not opinion. They are facts.
I have been scraping data off realtor.ca and tosolds for years and for you to say that there’s been no appreciation on like for like properties in Toronto for 2-3 years is a rage inducing lie.
You fng lie. Anyone who is serious about buying and has collected data knows you are lying and it is infuriating.
i was the first to identify WalMark as a troll
you’re welcome
“Just a heap of foreign investment,locals that have turned buying a house into a blood sport and cheap credit.”
Foreign investment? With what money? Why is there no drop in leverage? Where is the data for the inflows? Why isn’t there an explosion of house listings on the market if prices on individual properties have actually risen as much as some would imply? Why aren’t consumers confident and spending?
The “foreign investment” theory is pretty easily disproven. Which leads us back to local speculators acting to exaggerate the value of their otherwise stagnating and minimally, if not unprofitable assets simply to keep their mortgages and credit lines adequately capitalized. At least on paper.
Mrs Flop enjoyed this and hopes you guys like it too…
M41BC
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ziwYbVx_-qg
“They expect weekly equity increases.” – Garth
——————————————————-
Yes! Because that’s what they’ve seen the last few years. In that time (eight years?) prices have more than tripled!!!! This while many have been warning of a price decline. There is absolutely no indication that there is about to be a price decline. In fact, indications are that prices will continue to rise. Namely, massive immigration, lower interest rates (negative maybe?) and, let’s not forget, government policies. I say BS to news that the Fiberals will try to put a lid on this thing. They’d be crazy to try anything meaningful. And they won’t.
geez.
Did I compare Brazil to Venezuela?
My apologies to Brazil.
Venezuela’s population 33.5 million. 28,000 murders last year…..and this year…..no food.
Hugo Chavez Socialist “Utopian” meltdown extrodinaire…..
I recently posted some info about a California start-up called Otto that plans to retrofit highway trucks for autonomous driving. They are developing systems that operate only on highways to minimize the range of conditions the computer needs to control. At first truck drivers could sleep as the vehicle moved. Later fully autonomous operation would follow between points adjacent to highways.
Brydle604 correctly pointed out that Otto would not find it easy to automate the manual transmissions commonly found in highway rigs as well as other key mechanical systems such as power steering. While true, this may not slow down the introduction of the technology much because:
– The pace at which the auto industry is adopting digital/mechanical controls is accelerating and truck manufacturers are following the trend
– Electronic controls are more energy efficient and therefore save cash
– Fleet operators are finding it difficult to recruit experienced highway drivers. Automated transmissions and computer-controlled systems make trucks easier to drive and so expand the base of potential drivers including more women
Otto has confirmed on its blog site they are focused on automated transmissions. They are working with Volvo trucks which feature the I-Shift transmission:
“The Volvo I-Shift makes drivers more productive, using intelligent electronics to continuously monitor grade, speed, weight, and engine load, shifting when necessary or holding a gear—whichever saves more fuel.”
Volvo has adopted electric power steering which not only lightens the load on the driver but also saves energy since it only requires power when in use. As to braking, modern anti-lock brake systems are basically a computer chip that hits the brakes for you.
It seems to me that fleet operators already have compelling reasons to adopt these technologies that form a potential platform for autonomous driving. Given the challenges and time-line of defining, testing and certifying an autonomous system, it is unlikely that Otto or any potential rivals will now try to retrofit mechanical systems that are already obsolescent. On the other hand, their path to a successful product seems to be reasonably well-mapped.
#147 Mark on 06.11.16 at 7:38 pm
“Just a heap of foreign investment,locals that have turned buying a house into a blood sport and cheap credit.”
Foreign investment? With what money? Why is there no drop in leverage? Where is the data for the inflows? Why isn’t there an explosion of house listings on the market if prices on individual properties have actually risen as much as some would imply? Why aren’t consumers confident and spending?
The “foreign investment” theory is pretty easily disproven. Which leads us back to local speculators acting to exaggerate the value of their otherwise stagnating and minimally, if not unprofitable assets simply to keep their mortgages and credit lines adequately capitalized. At least on paper.
//////////////////////////////////////
When I go to work on Monday I will do you a favour.
I will shout out ” Hey Mark from the blog says there is no data to support you guys being here so go back to where you are from”
This is what Canada has been waiting for to end this housing bubble….thanks Mark you are a miracle worker…
M41BC
Some folks down south think the US real estate market is in another bubble; one of the smartest of them is Mark Hanson —
http://mhanson.com/6-8-16-hanson-housing-bubble/
Might be interesting if both countries’ real estate markets were to plop about the same time?
There is no US housing bubble. Prices are, on average, still 13% below the 2006 level. Household debt has fallen and mortgage regs tightened. All unlike here. — Garth
It’s not so much the price of housing you’ve got to watch … but the value of the currency. Central banks have not been able to stoke inflation, even with negative rates, and now the ECB is planning on buying up corporate bonds!
Trust is eroding … and investors are even looking at gold for protection.
That would be foolish. — Garth
I read a few bits of various fiction book today. Trying to re light that spark I have at random times.
More from a perspective of where to put comma’s, try and figure out the difference between. There, They’re and Thier.
But the big discover was you can get away with murder in this regressive PC world we live in.
You can make up characters as a writer. Have the villan say everything your really think, without being a sexist.. but you can get away with it in the from a counter balancing other character…. a progressive so to speak.
Well no spark to my writing but I learned something important today.
Mark – when you use 1 anecdotal story like Khalid and then imply that the entire market is effectively controlled / manipulated by these speculators, you lose all credibility. When you continue on a thesis like the sales mix which hsd been largely disproven by the numbers, you lose credibility.
As I have stated to you before, I, too, want to see a reversion to the mean but that doesn’t mean that I should fabricate evidence to support my thesis. It means, I should point out how risky the behavior is that consumers are taking on by engaging in this market at these multiples.
I know you won’t listen to this or any other suggestions or arguments, hence why WalMark calls you a troll. I agree with his assessment.
BTW, GM is hiring a 1000 engineers but don’t worry, I am sure that just means they are Apollo janitorial jobs to you.
all not Apollo …but it makes it seem much more prestigious. ;-)
@ #134 unbalanced
What fund is Mawer 250. I don’t recognize it. Thanks in advance!!!
My response was solely to the Mawer, I didn’t even take note of the fund #. Mine are all 100’s…so maybe the OP will shed further light
For those about to flop… on 06.11.16 at 4:46 pm
…..
I, on the other hand am a dumb guy who occasionally comes up with something intelligent…
M41BC
=====================
Hey Flopper,
you speak often (maybe too often), and the truth is there. a little enthusiasm is good.
give Mark a break. he needs to get out a bit more, like yourself.
break free from that keyboard and use your hands for a better purpose… then maybe get outside.
It’s beautiful at this time of year.
Cheers & love Bro, Russ
For a hard core dyslexic to attempt a fiction novel is like a deaf, dumb and blind kid wininng at the world pin ball championship.
https://youtu.be/aOUqRZkR8dE
A man, or chic without a goal is a useless eater as Henry Kissenger pointed out.
Hope he hasn’t mind fkd our celebrity astronaut at Bilderberg.
That shit head is pure evil……Kissenger that is.
Lot of If’s wear, If I ever develop a work ethic and finish the beast of a book. I’m on late night TV pumping it and some ass hole celebrity worshiper fans ask for an autograph.
My response will be.
“The UCC is telling me. You’re special, can I have your autograph instead”
We all got this together but some one mind fkd you, probably a teacher. That’s why I hate them.
With no words, just a few. On a small pre-drunk, for my big drunk at Seneca tomorrow night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCMHmDnfD6I
Teachers is all I’m saying………
151 Andrew Woburn
I have no doubt as the Trucking Industry replaces today s tractors they will adopt Auto transmissions and electric steering and braking.
The real test would be autonomous operations over the Coquihalla (Highway Thru Hell) in the winter.
Thanks for your research.
#159 Russ on 06.11.16 at 10:37 pm
For those about to flop… on 06.11.16 at 4:46 pm
…..
I, on the other hand am a dumb guy who occasionally comes up with something intelligent…
M41BC
=====================
Hey Flopper,
you speak often (maybe too often), and the truth is there. a little enthusiasm is good.
give Mark a break. he needs to get out a bit more, like yourself.
break free from that keyboard and use your hands for a better purpose… then maybe get outside.
It’s beautiful at this time of year.
Cheers & love Bro, Russ
/////////////////////////////////
Hey Russ, I hear ya but I am due to have a meeting with my old boss Paul Allen next week, he has a business proposal for me but i am not sure if it will fly.
He says he has something revolutionary for me to invest in…it has no title at the moment so he is calling it”wifi” for now.
I hope it works out…
M41BC
#92 Jane24 said:
“Small town Ontario life is still both affordable and wonderful. My kids spent a few years in Cambridge, Ontario and it was like going back in time. I returned there a few weeks ago and not much changed, kids still playing out on the road till dark. There is a huge world outside of the TO. Find another line of work and move.
We were checking out house prices in Kingston for a fantasy summer house and it is amazing what you can get for $450,000. We are talking 4 bed detached, big lot on waterfront. This only buys a one bed condo in Port Credit, Mississauga.
Kids get out of TO and build a better, less polluted life.”
Jane24 I agree with you 100%. I went from CityPlace in downtown Toronto to Red Deer Alberta … It would be like moving to Barrie. No traffic, no pollution, 10 minute commute, no sales tax, detached homes for under 300k, great schools, etc.
#142 Lee on 06.11.16 at 6:03 pm
#99,
Tell that to all the money in Toronto. Sfhs in town will never drop. EVER. Too much money in Toronto. Only about 200,000 sfhs anyone cares to live in in Toronto. Just old money will keep those afloat, not to mention all the professionals, teachers, first responders, gvt workers, entrepreneurs, crooks, tax evaders and criminals. I think old money probably owns 50,000 sfhs in Toronto and can buy their kids 50,000 mores. I forgot professors, foreigners, strippers, professional athletes, musicians, cp24 and ctv and tsn anchors, and lest we forget real estate agents. You don’t think there are 100,000 sfhs to be bought and kept a float by all these people. If Toronto were some small town, present valuations could be an issue. The longer you wait for a crash the longer your headache is going to be. Stop waiting for a miracle. Ain’t never gonna happen.
——————————————————————————–
Sheesh Lee, you’re like a broken record. Same rhetoric over and over again.
Now Toronto has suddenly developed the world’s wealthiest population. Wealthier than Los Angeles, Tokyo, Monte Carlo and New York combined. The prices will triple by this fall too right? It’s a wonder why Bill Gates and Warren Buffet don’t move here.
Cut the crap and come up with something original and insightful for once.
For those about to flop… on 06.11.16 at 11:09 pm
Hey Russ, I hear ya but I am due to have a meeting with my old boss Paul Allen next week, he has a business proposal for me but i am not sure if it will fly.
He says he has something revolutionary for me to invest in…it has no title at the moment so he is calling it”wifi” for now.
I hope it works out…
M41BC
====================
You guys might be on to the next big thing.
Good ol’ Paul, ‘ees got a ‘ead on ‘is shoulders, that one!
I’ve heard “wiifi” from the millennials doing hatch watch for us.
I think it means: yeah, okay we can do that if the “wife is in for it” or something like that.
Kinda what Smoky believes we have going on, with the mind f*k and emasculation of young men thing.
Chapter 10 when I take down the wizard of earth.
Some one had to do it eventually.
This is his report to the counsel from the CIA.
I’m a wanted man. Enjoy speakers loud.
…………………….
Ever since I was a young boy,
I’ve played the silver ball.
From Soho down to Brighton
I must have played them all.
But I ain’t seen nothing like him
In any amusement hall…
That deaf, dumb and blind kid
Sure plays a mean pinball!
He stands like a statue,
Becomes part of the machine.
Feeling all the bumpers
Always playing clean.
He plays by intuition,
The digit counters fall.
That deaf, dumb and blind kid
Sure plays a mean pinball!
He’s a pinball wizard
There has to be a twist.
A pinball wizard’s got such a supple wrist.
‘How do you think he does it?
I don’t know!
What makes him so good?’
Ain’t got no distractions
Can’t hear no buzzers and bells,
Don’t see no lights a-flashin’
Plays by sense of smell.
Always gets a replay,
Never seen him fall.
That deaf, dumb and blind kid
Sure plays a mean pinball.
I thought I was The Bally table king
But I just handed my pinball crown to him.
Even on my favorite table
He can beat my best.
His disciples lead him in
And he just does the rest.
He’s got crazy flipper fingers
Never seen him fall…
That deaf, dumb and blind kid
Sure plays a mean pinball.
That deaf, dumb and blind kid
Sure plays a mean pinball.
” When you continue on a thesis like the sales mix which hsd been largely disproven by the numbers, you lose credibility”
Nothing’s been disproven about the sales mix being most, if not the entire cause of the rising sales averages. In fact, the data continues to get stronger and stronger for the sales mix, and not appreciation on individual houses, being responsible for the alleged ‘gains’.
If Vancouver housing really went up the 30% or so that is claimed in the past few months, the supply onslaught to market would be enormous. Simple laws of supply and demand in economics. Yet we don’t see this supply onslaught. The reason being, there was no appreciation, and Realtors, the honest ones (which are most of them) are rightly advising their clients, in private, that if they list, they won’t get anything more than they would have received a few years ago.
Besides, its not just me saying stuff about the sales mix. Its Ross Kay as well, having made public statements based on his research derived completely independently of mine (in methodology as well — he uses micro-statistics, I use macro-statistics!). You feel so smug about insulting an anonymous online charicature in “Mark”, but would you be willing to make comments about Mr. Kay, a reputed expert in the field, in public? For some reason, I think not.
In my shit book.
The wizard of earth that I’m taken down. A Mexican in Colonel Sanders Wardrobe gear.
Alcohol is what I’m thinking…..It’s under rated.
“Just old money will keep those afloat, not to mention all the professionals, teachers, first responders, gvt workers, entrepreneurs, crooks, tax evaders and criminals. I think old money probably owns 50,000 sfhs in Toronto and can buy their kids 50,000 mores.”
If Toronto is so darn wealthy as you claim, why is subprime credit so ubiquitously used to buy housing there? Wealthy people shouldn’t need subprime (CMHC) backed loans after all, now would they?
I think you’re exaggerating the health of GTA homeowners. Garth et al routinely conjure up statistics with most Canadians being a mere paycheque missed away from significant financial calamity. And besides, even if some of those wealthier people decided to buy housing, they’d have to sell some of their housing finance investments (MBS, GICs, bank deposits, etc.), which would withdraw financing from the housing market, crushing prices. Remember that every dollar borrowed by a mortgage borrower is an asset in someone’s hands!
Humanity be you.. don’t hold back.
Nothing else matters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj75Arhq5ho
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMqNFAU0tOw
No words
Greyhound: Some folks down south think the US real estate market is in another bubble; one of the smartest of them is Mark Hanson
Mark Hanson says that house prices in the US will reattach to end-user demand. He means without any expectation of a price increase.
In Canada, there is an expectation of a price increase and in Vancouver and Toronto it’s a bigger expectation. People in Canada ( some people not everybody ) have signed mortgages and pledged their income on the expectation of price increases. so what? It’s the level of debt that’s the problem, they are maxed out. For significant numbers, there can be no increase in interest rates whatsoever. There can be no loss of income whatsoever.
Bill Morneau, Justin Trudeau and Poloz know this. They’re worried.
Another song that got me trough a suicidal moment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SbUC-UaAxE
Its in the first UN-published book I wrote a while ago.
Felling judgement from you bastards . I deleted it on a whim. Then developed a false ego called the Smoking Man.
The epic loner……. I like it…. Tired of humanities bullshit, worse than mine.
Where is my prized……..?
I know you won’t listen to this or any other suggestions or arguments, hence why WalMark calls you a troll. I agree with his assessment.
thank you
BTW, GM is hiring a 1000 engineers but don’t worry, I am sure that just means they are Apollo janitorial jobs to you.
poor WalMark. literally and figuratively
i hope he gets better.
serious
“I will shout out ” Hey Mark from the blog says there is no data to support you guys being here so go back to where you are from”
I think you might be a tad bit confused. I’m not saying that there aren’t many new(er) Canadians in the housing market. That is absolutely true. But those new(er) Canadians, when they are buying, are buying mostly with large amounts of credit. They are neither foreigners, nor do they have suitcases of money. Most newcomers to Canada, even from “wealthier” places, arrive with little other than enough for a few months rent and a used Honda. Maybe an Acura if they’re a little bit more upscale. The rest of their lifestyle is earned or borrowed, in Canada, by participating in the Canadian economy in some combination of borrowing and working.
But in Vancouver proper, at the nosebleed prices, evidence is quite significant that individual houses haven’t been appreciating since the CMHC subprime credit apex of ~2013. Hence, the alleged increases to the transactional averages are almost entirely on account of the shift to the sales mix, and transactions in a relatively small number of houses taking place between semi-related parties. Assignment flipping was one of the techniques involved. Foreign participation was found in more than one study to be less than 5% — typical of most major cities worldwide (with most such “foreign” participation being of US citizens!). Extreme priced houses (ie: not the sort that actually would be part of the rental are largely owned by people who are demographically representative of Vancouver’s upper class population. The “Chinese with suitcases of cash” theory has been most thoroughly debunked in various studies (and the CBSA emphasis is actually on illicit/clandestine outbound currency flows from YVR, not inbound!).
Your preaching your programming.
Know this……
Your master Wynnes…But not you..
I went from CityPlace in downtown Toronto to Red Deer Alberta
those 2 economies are a bit different
just a bit
There is no US housing bubble. Prices are, on average, still 13% below the 2006 level. Household debt has fallen and mortgage regs tightened. All unlike here. — Garth
yup
http://fortune.com/2016/04/30/warren-buffett-there-is-no-bubble-in-real-estate/
Jane24 I agree with you 100%. I went from CityPlace in downtown Toronto to Red Deer Alberta … It would be like moving to Barrie. No traffic, no pollution, 10 minute commute, no sales tax, detached homes for under 300k, great schools, etc.
******
Barrie is a dump. Its quickly turned into the poo hold of southern Ontario. A traffic bottleneck on summer weekends and becoming the most distant bedroom community for the underclass of downtown TO workers who endure epic daily commutes. No good manufacturing jobs (no industry would locate there because of traffic hell and poor relative proximity to the border). The main commercial drag is a depressing sea of parking lots full of Kia driving hosers. Truly the last place a cashed up Toronto refugee would ever want to relocate to.
Smokey is a boozehound!
Hmmm…Brits take a late draw in football, but march into Brisbane and put a beat-down on the Wallabies at home…
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-union/international/australia-vs-england-live-latest-score-teams-what-time-does-it-start-and-what-channel-is-it-on-a7076336.html
At #99: That’s a pretty good assessment of things to come in Canada. There is no other way around it, and I have yet to hear a single viable reason real estate isn’t already fried there, as in the bubble has popped. Quotation by the very people who’s interests it serves to keep values high is not a source of information to consider.
Why would Vancouver real estates tank??
Fundamental reason # 23:
A One-Bedroom Hong Kong Apartment Is Selling for Nearly $3 Million — on Welfare Road
https://www.yahoo.com/news/one-bedroom-hong-kong-apartment-064242199.html
#130 Mark on 06.11.16 at 3:59 pm
Actually prices on identical properties haven’t moved much at all in the past 3-4 years in Vancouver. There is no windfall available to the average homeowner over that interval. The alleged ‘increases’ that we see in the newspapers are almost entirely on account of the market itself shifting to the upmarket percentiles of the overall housing stock ……
—————
What the ??? ???
The money coming into country for deals goes into lawyers “trust accounts” . Lawyer-client confidentiality? QED! Out the money pops ( R/E mainly here in Van, but not necessarily] & no prying needless eyes. “Trust agreements” are put on earth for business to be transacted confidentially. Like dealing with natives or their band. In the old days, we had to write up “trust agreements” to bypass the governments SJW’s. Same now with offshore money. “Trust accounts” are confidential walls. If your going to make & keep money, you gotta love & trust those lawyers. Just remember to pay em well.
“here’s the simple FACT … young people see no future here, and are leaving … PERIOD … “discussion” about the situation is nonsense … this IS happening … it is happening with my family as well”
Part 1
http://vanmag.com/city/the-van-mag-qa-ian-young/
https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/4nnh2e/33_acres_rips_gregor_robertson_on_twitter/
Interesting read. Thanks. Visitors may find this likewise,
http://livingstingy.blogspot.ca/2012/01/real-estate-bubble-of-1989.html
And
http://www.rntl.net/history_of_a_housing_bubble.htm
Both document the 1989 housing bubble in the US. The lexicon, rationale, and anecdotes are familiar, with wealthy speculators playing the role of foreign demand. What triggered the bust? Affordability. Once houses were priced out of reach of the average citizen, the writing was on the wall, or tailgate, so to speak.
Abolish the Greenbelt and the Agricultural Land Reserve.
Thanks Metexa for answering. Just wondering as I own 104 since May 2014. Thanks again
“Electronic controls are more energy efficient and therefore save cash”
I’d be careful with such a statement. Yes, electrical controls can, in some cases, improve energy efficiency. However, there tends to be a corresponding increase in redundancy required to make those electronic controls ‘work’ in realizable systems that are subject to normal maintenance practices.
We accept that mechanical steering elements can, in rare occasion, fail catastrophically. Causing significant loss of control and personal injury. All cars on the road today use mechanical controls that are at least minimally vulnerable to such failure. However, an electro-mechanical system introduces an additional layer of complexity, in that, not only is the electrical system itself a point of failure, but the electrical system must interface to a mechanical system which becomes an additional point of failure.
My ‘fear’ about the levels of automation that companies with virtually no full-cycle development, manufacturing, sales, and in-service lifecycle experience are touting, is that they simply do not know what they’re doing. Google, in particular, makes grandiose claims about self-driving cars, yet they can’t even deliver embedded systems (ie: smartphones) to market that have full software reliability and 5-9’s availability. Even military drone manufacturers, having thrown literally billions at arguably a significantly ‘easier’ problem than developing a truly autonomous “self-driving” vehicle (flight is easier than terrestrial driving on highways!), still have not achieved reliability levels acceptable to have their products receive social license if they were on-road vehicles. Why should we thus believe that affordable self-driving vehicles are just around the corner?
Basically a lot of it adds up to hype. Remember the late 1990s, when the stock market accorded a premium valuation to anyone who put “.com” or “Internet” into their company’s name? That’s what self-driving cars are these days. Just hype. Unadulterated BS to pull the wool over the eyes of the uninformed, to sell them a vision of future profits that aren’t likely to materialize at least in the short timeframes certain people in the industry want you to believe. Did you know that the main technology for self-driving cars’ “vision”, known as LIDAR, basically stops working in the rain? Did you know that many of the enabling technologies for self-driving cars are subject to such tight military export controls under ITAR, such as high resolution high framerate FLIR that there is practically no possibility that such will ever be feasible for non-military vehicles?
But enough of my rambling on this topic for the evening. All I gotta say is invest in companies promoting this nonsense at your peril. And I haven’t even begun to discuss the massive investment in roads and other infrastructure that will be required to make self-driving vehicles actually work properly, even as the other technological hurdles are eventually overcome.
Preferred shares….
Prefer shares of most companies will continue to pay the promised dividend, come hell or high water. (Unless the company actually fails and goes into receivership)
Price of the pref shares so capital gain or loss is an entirely different matter.
Rate reset shares tend To rise as interest rates rise.
Traditional perpetual prefs always fall in price as market interest rates rise (assume credit rating of company unchanged)
All prefs fall in price as the credit rating / financial strength of the company falls (assume market interest rates unchanged).
all of the above is mathematical fact. Even mark cannot disagree.
Rate reset prefs now dominate the marketplace. — Garth
Is it only because of rate resets that Canadian pref share ETFs have performed so poorly (i.e. CPD, ZPR) while US pref share ETFs have remained stable (i.e. PFF)?
Hells Angels.
Getting a visual from the back of my broken mind of bi planes dropping bombs on Nazis. What a hang over is all I’m saying.
Market conditions “created”? Or, is this the free market running amok?
The Canadian housing market puts us all at risk
“These concerns were most vocally addressed this past December, when Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz stated that most of the debt exposure is concentrated among 720,000 households, or 8% of mortgage-holders, who currently hold more than 350% of debt when compared to their annual gross income. These are the households that would struggle to make debt payments either in the face of a significant economic downturn or when interest rates rise. It should be noted that while the number of households that seem to walk the insolvency line is under 10%, it’s still twice as many when compared to 2008, at the start of the global economic crisis.”
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/real-estate/the-canadian-housing-market-puts-us-all-at-risk/ar-BBtUWR7
The (US) housing market is trapped
” Why sell your home and buy a home when one, there’s not a lot of choices in a home to buy – a little bit of a chicken and an egg problem there – but right now there’s so little inventory to choose from. Secondly, a majority of existing homeowners have a mortgage rate of 4.5% or less. There’s very little financial incentive because all I have is a big lump of transaction costs to move.
Whereas in times past, the move up process was incentivized by the long-run trend in falling interest rates. Every three to four years, interest rates were lower than they were a few years ago and so yeah sure, I’ll move, because I can by my proverbial ‘own home’ back at less monthly cost because rates are lower. There’s no incentive for that, rates have hobbled at 4% or less than 4% for almost 2 years now, 80% roughly have a mortgage rate at 4.5% or so. I don’t see the financial benefit to moving if it’s going to cost my 6% commission and moving fees.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-market-is-trapped-2016-6
Mark, please stop. I’m getting a cramp in my scroll wheel finger.
Trump just clinched the election.
Radical Islamic terrorist killed 20 Americans in a might club in Orlando last night.
But if interest rates rise, won’t preferred shares take a whack.
“The opposite. — Garth”
Not a good answer. It depends on what type of pre. The rate reset prefs will rise, an the perpetual prefs will fall. Just go with an ETF that has lots of rate resets.
5% of holdings in Gold is for insurance against Central Bank madness. With government bond yields across the planet at 500 year extremes, it is silly to argue that Central Bankers are not parasitic.
Nonbank financial institutions are also storing cash. Munich Re said back in March it would store both physical cash and gold to avoid paying negative interest rates.
Busy Saturday in the ‘hood. House down the street emptied out early, entire family left. Scores of vehicles showed up, blocking the street on either side. Must have been about 40 in total, parked everywhere.
There then began this endless stream of suit – wearing, important looking, determined people, conducting meetings with scared looking couples and singles standing haphazardly on the sidewalk, and then rushing in and out of this house, looking nervous and angry.
Was all over by 3pm. Several folks left in tears. Everyone looked very tired and worn out by the end of it.
A funeral? A wake? Missing child? An emergency?
Nope.
Someone decided to sell their house and 40 couples and singles showed up with their agents, apparently all with the intention of buying it.
Crap shack too. Old single storey two bedroom job with no parking.
Yup, Toronto real estate is about to lose 40% of its value. Will happen any day now……………..
How will this end? I guess I am confused, what happens to the economy with a 20 to 50 percent housing correction, what are the consequences?
What happens to the stock market?
Everyone on here says Yahoo, but have you really stopped and thought what will happen?
What happens when millions are out of work, walk away from their houses?
Surly the party cannot end well, bank runs?
I read many newsletters and they are all worried about mounting personal and government debt,
Again how does this end? Run away inflation?
No one can predict the future, but telling everyone a balanced portfolio and rent is this answer for millions of us this is not the answer. Garth you have written many times we have too much debt, no savings and no pensions, and everything invested in housing.
So this cannot end well?
I find all is unsettling,
Good Morning Mark,may I suggest you rearrange your bedroom furniture so you don’t always have to get out of the stubborn side of the bed.
Read this interaction that happened two weeks ago…
M41BC
//////////////////////////////////////
#21 For those about to flop… on 05.27.16 at 7:22 pm
I got a call from a contractor last night about going to work on a house in Kerrisdale
I had worked on a house for them about 1.5 years ago which was in the same area.They are young speculators and I trust you can guess their ethnicity.
The thing that shocked me was they hadn’t sold the original one and were doubling down on another new build like they just can’t lose.
A block of land in that area can go for somewhere around 3/4 million so these guys are really rolling the dice.
The bubble could continue on its merry way and these guys will live like kings or these guys will be the poster children of greed an insanity…
M41BC
#164 jrochest on 05.29.16 at 12:34 am
#29 For those about to flop
My god, that’s my parents’ house!
Seriously — when Dad died in 2012 Mom sold it, as she’s in a nursing home. Of course they tore down the old house and put up this – didn’t realize it hadn’t sold yet!
They won’t have any financing problems, though — the money to buy the house came from China, as they actually told us that it would be a while before they could close, as they’d have to get the money out of China. They paid cash, as close as I can remember.
Nice couple. I’m surprised the house isn’t sold yet, though.
@ Mark
You have a real habit of doubling down on your opinions regardless of the evidence you are shown. I really regret educating you a little on autonomous vehicles.
Some people spend their time trying to figure out all the reasons something can’t be done. Others spend all their time coming up with ways to solve those problems. No wonder engineering firms won’t hire you.
From an investment perspective, i don’t have an opinion on companies developing self driving cars. From a technology perspective you are wrong.
Dotcom companies may have been overvalued. But the internet still changed the way we live.
#167 Russ on 06.11.16 at 11:26 pm
For those about to flop… on 06.11.16 at 11:09 pm
Hey Russ, I hear ya but I am due to have a meeting with my old boss Paul Allen next week, he has a business proposal for me but i am not sure if it will fly.
He says he has something revolutionary for me to invest in…it has no title at the moment so he is calling it”wifi” for now.
I hope it works out…
M41BC
====================
You guys might be on to the next big thing.
Good ol’ Paul, ‘ees got a ‘ead on ‘is shoulders, that one!
I’ve heard “wiifi” from the millennials doing hatch watch for us.
I think it means: yeah, okay we can do that if the “wife is in for it” or something like that.
Kinda what Smoky believes we have going on, with the mind f*k and emasculation of young men thing.
///////////////////////////////////
Morning Russ,it’s funny you should say that.
There is a noodle house up on Fraser street ,near where I live and it has a hand written sign in the entryway that reads”Free Wife” and then someone grabbed a pen and helped them out by crossing out the wife and inserted wifi…
Have a good day brother…
M41BC
“The longer you wait for a crash the longer your headache is going to be. Stop waiting for a miracle. Ain’t never gonna happen.”
These places aren’t paid for with cash by ‘the old money and strippers’…it’s all on the cuff. When rates rise the high end market always falls first…because it’s all borrowed money.
Was on a ferry to Victoria yesterday and had a nice conversation with a older guy from the NY/NJ area. He was on a tour group going up to Alaska via Vancouver Island. We got to talking about his trip and a bunch of different things. He mentioned that they went up to Capilano Suspension Bridge and through North Vancouver/Edgemont, etc. on the Friday. I told him every house he saw was worth at least 1.5 million. He lost his mind. He thought maybe $250,000 each.
Mark is a flat out liar.
Either he is intentionally lying his ass off or… he is the special needs kid who goes to the park and finds mounds of dog shit (his ideas) , brings them home to wrap in a pretty box (his english), and then takes then to school (this blog) to try to sell them as lunch day after day after day. Mark , you know all people avoid you in real life, please give us dogs that same opportunity.
The truth:
ALL sfh (and empty/junker lots)in van on an absolute rocket ride for the past 3 years. Every last one has just about doubled. Every. Single. One. Mark is the true king of the most retarded ideas ever seen on this blog or for that matter any blog.
What the ??? ???
welcome to our village
i see you’ve met the village idiot
This story outlines what I have been banging on about with the Brexit.
Sport and politics are a lethal combination.
It was poor planning to have this referendum during this major sporting event when emotions are running high.
People are likely to go to the poll on June 23rd and vote on a whim and in a few months will be wondering what they did…
M41BC
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/522392/england-fans-chant-euro-2016-brexit-marseille
#191 “Abolish the Greenbelt and the Agricultural Land Reserve.”
Wynne can’t do that until powerful Liberal builders and developers have bought the land up first.
It took Hamilton six years to expand their urban boundaries. One guess why?
#180
There is no US housing bubble. Prices are, on average, still 13% below the 2006 level. Household debt has fallen and mortgage regs tightened. All unlike here. — Garth
yup
Yup !! my sister sold her beautiful immaculate bungalow 1600 sq ft in Dunedin,Florida in Febuary of 2016 for $200,000 .They lived in it for 20 years and originally paid $120,000 for it. Garth is correct the housing market in the US is totally different to 416,and 604 which are both insane unrealistically priced.
By the way I live in East Vancouver and just seen a house on Albert st.Burnaby only on the market a couple of weeks just had a price reduction it appears that the tide is turning folks.
You want to mention Hong Kong. It happened with the Hang Seng stock market since 2007.
It was around 33,000 at its high and now is around 21,000 down 36% 9 years later.
Hong Kong real estate is a dog having its day right now but will end too.
Robots
I worked for the company that decided to eliminated one job, by investing in robot, funny thing is after the Robby the robot was commissioned, instead of having guys running a process, they created a need for 3rd guy. (process didnr run any faster either)
true story !!! no word of the lie here.
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l5elmuaGs81qankvno1_500.jpg
#165 Carlyle on 06.11.16 at 11:13 pm
Jane24 I agree with you 100%. I went from CityPlace in downtown Toronto to Red Deer Alberta …
————————————
My condolences.
Looks like this never posted as my computer froze last night – just saying the Quebec back door if for real and has had a profound influence on Vancity RE:
“Ultimately, the levers that have been driving this phenomenon—and it is a phenomenon—are in the hands of the federal government. The Quebec Immigrant Investor Program still operates, and it still pumps thousands of millionaires in to Vancouver’s market every year to no great benefit of Vancouver other than to boost house prices. The Quebec Immigration Program was the world’s biggest wealth-migration scheme. Who knew about that? Who in Vancouver knew that they were beholden to the world’s biggest wealth migration scheme, and that it was being run out of Quebec? We’re not talking small numbers here, either. By David Ley’s estimation, he thought that there was well north of 100,000 rich migrants who had come into Vancouver [through the Federal Immigrant Investor Program and Quebec Immigrant Investor Programs combined] and more than 60,000 between 2002 and 2014 or something. Big numbers. And Vancouver is a relatively small town, and this buying behavior is concentrated in the west side and Richmond.”
http://vanmag.com/city/the-van-mag-qa-ian-young-on-racism-and-real-estate-part-ii/
#212 Ret on 06.12.16 at 12:04 pm
#191 “Abolish the Greenbelt and the Agricultural Land Reserve.”
Wynne can’t do that until powerful Liberal builders and developers have bought the land up first.
It took Hamilton six years to expand their urban boundaries. One guess why?
….
Agreed. I live on the BC ALR and if it’s opened up, lots will sell at a premium. Gov only frees up slightly less land than is required (ie 30,000 new houses up Burke Mtn Coquitlam) and listed at max price. The strategy is to milk the top dollar, not provide more affordable inventory. The ALR sellers negotiated with developers, not individuals looking to homestead.
Can our hearts go out to the people who lost friends and kin in the barbaric attack in Orlando?
May they all rest in peace.
It still reminds me of 9-11. Despite spending half a trillion dollars, neither the CIA, NSA nor FBI did anything.
Oh, government responded with the FEMA but what did they do for New Orleans? Nothing!
Government is impotent!
Still, God Bless those that were affected by the insane man in Orlando. It is beyond “Humpty Dumpty”!
Oh yeah,
fic
Apparently, after 9-11 many of the air traffic controller’s regional bosses walked out of a meeting, the topic of which was what to do about 9-11? They walked.
Then there was a “60 Minutes” segment about the Tsunami in Indonesia and Thailand with a government guy from Colorado Springs, I think. They measure global seismic activity.
The interviewer, after the screen showed abnormal plate activity, why didn’t you warn anyone?
The idiot, a typical bureaucrat, said: “We don’t have a protocol for that…”
I would have called CNN and told them to warn everyone!
Of course, I don’t have a government pension, but I think for myself.