It’s coming

SNAKE modified

Proving they care about more than just tats, weed, gender parity, hair and spending, the T2 gang are in the throes of preparing a national housing policy designed to bring down the hammer on runaway markets. Sort of.

It will jack the scrutiny of foreign buyers (after intense political pressure), but not restrict them. It’ll tighten up on lending by squeezing the banks and shifting more risk from CHMC to the lenders. No 10% downpayment, since Mills and moisters are no longer seen as the problem (and they elected Trudeau). But you can count on mortgage rates increasing as the financial guys face enhanced capital requirements and deal with a partial withdrawal of CMHC coverage on new originations.

The feds are fully aware a real estate correction in the GTA and a meltdown in Vancouver will throw spray all over them. Worse, it might not come for a year or two, after all young people in YVR have given up on housing forever (and are pissed) and we’re dangerously close to the next election.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau is seized with this. In fact, his job may depend upon it. Remember that one of his first acts was to try and reign in the over-sexed markets with a jump in down payments, boosting the minimum 5% for houses listed between $500,000 and a million. It was a big move. It flopped. By giving moisters several months’ notice he actually threw gas on the flames as the kids poured in to beat the deadline.

Meanwhile the nation’s bankers filled in the anxiety gap with even-lower lending rates – which have continued to erode. So, in the mere seven months the Libs have been in power, household debt has hit a new high; Van prices have exploded; five-year mortgages have dipped into the 2.2% range; the average Canadian resale has topped half a million for the first time;  while our economy fades and the US starts raising rates. Yikes. Quelle mess.

Now the Van real estate board predicts average prices will rise 25% this year – ten times the inflation rate – and already the average detached costs $1.7 million. (The number is up 37% in the past twelve months. If that’s not a bubble, what is?) GTA prices have gained 15% year/year, with listings falling and demand rising. The closer this thing flies to the sun, the more certain we are in for the kind of hard landing no politician wants to see on his watch.

Meanwhile, it will be the kids – the two million new voters who bandwagoned the selfie PM – getting squished the hardest in any meaningful real estate correction. They have the most debt, the least equity, the greatest risk, the scantest experience and the most unfounded of expectations. The last thing they surmised ending up owing more than they owe, living in illiquid condos and looking for somebody to blame.

This is why Morneau said in Toronto on Wednesday that the boys on the Hill are now “into a deep dive” to ensure the changes being contemplated “are evidence-based.”

“Our ongoing goal is to ensure we understand the market in all of its complexity; that we consider all the evidence to determine what measures are necessary on an ongoing basis to ensure that Canadians have the ability to buy homes.”

When the policy is announced is unknown, but odds are it won’t be too far off. The Liberal mandate is still young, and voters have three years to forget the day they woke up and discovered gravity.

<>   <>   <>

JIM modified

Poor Jim Reslein. The Victoria-based realtor, who likes the outdoors, running and awesome big fish, should probably take up proofreading next. Sure, we have Spellcheck to red-line typos, but sometimes it really pays to actually eyeball what you just wrote – and published.

Like the copy for his listing at 4971 Del Monte Avenue, in lusty Victoria, a four-bedder rancher listed for a buck less than eight hundred grand. Blog dog Jon spotted the unfortunate typo, but managed to bring it to a pleasant climax for us.

“Whatever happens to real estate prices,” he says, “at least the buyer of this place is guaranteed a happy ending…”

(Click to enlarge)

OPEN HOUSE 1

(Update: Jim corrected this Wednesday afternoon. The house is now merely ‘fabulous.’)

167 comments ↓

#1 Bob on 06.08.16 at 6:47 pm

If we finally see the first female US president, what will we call Bill? First Man, First Husband, First Dude… Sir Firstalot?

#2 Jimmy on 06.08.16 at 6:50 pm

Hillary is hot!

#3 Randy on 06.08.16 at 6:57 pm

Don’t worry..It’s only a paper loss.

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.16 at 6:58 pm

I cant wait to “come” to the open house…..sorry couldnt “contain” myself….errrr sorry…..that sort of “burst forth”…..what I mean is …….
never mind.

#5 JustaPigeon on 06.08.16 at 6:58 pm

Jim gave up on “immaculate”!

#6 Jerry on 06.08.16 at 7:00 pm

The Clintons are as evil as they get. We can only pray she doesn’t.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCSCCGLCNYA

#7 pathcontrolmonk on 06.08.16 at 7:01 pm

“…the T2 gang are in the throes of preparing a national housing policy designed to bring down the hammer on runaway markets. ”

Garth, what is your source?

#8 Randy on 06.08.16 at 7:02 pm

zerohedge ‏@zerohedge
Just gets better and better: Trudeau Says Rising Home Prices ’A Real Drag on Economy’

#9 Don't tax me bro on 06.08.16 at 7:03 pm

#153 Cici on 06.08.16 at 6:47 pm

#54 BobC

What a nerve you have…why should we, the average hardworking and responsible tax payer, be backing low-life gamblers who have been borrowing their downpayment money from CMHC and overly lax banks…putting us all at risk and driving up our housing costs?

I’m not usually impolite, but seriously: GFY
————————–

Well said!

#10 Lulu on 06.08.16 at 7:04 pm

The T2 gangs is all too late to the rescue, the ship is far far gone north and they want to bring it back…. Good Luck with that!

Thanks for the laugh!!! Geez!! If i am the seller I’m gonna be pissed!!!LMAO!!!

#11 Caught on 06.08.16 at 7:06 pm

When the government gets this interested in a sector you know you’re near a top. The same happened with the Alberta govt & oil royalties – right before the oil crash.

#12 Dave on 06.08.16 at 7:09 pm

The Liberals want evidence? LOL. It cost ten times more to live in Vancouver than most cities in North America. Vancouver has a crappy job market and salaries are often lower for the same job compared to Toronto and other cities. Everyone but the Liberals know the foreign influence in the market. What more evidence do we need. Just drive to Pt Grey or Shaughnessy.

#13 Harden on 06.08.16 at 7:10 pm

Is that a Sperm Whale?

#14 Jo on 06.08.16 at 7:11 pm

As a long time lender I have to say I have never seen such reckless behaviour and outright stupidity. As I do not work in any commission or product payments I have been telling my applicants to not borrow and if they really need to, borrow less than they think. I then break down what the mortgage payment will be 5 yrs down at 2 % higher
It boggles the mind a MAJOR driver of this craziness especially in the last 12 months is existing “owners” who are borrowing against their “equity” to buy more RE and in many cases they need a mortgage on the new place too
Given that I work for a traditional lender in a location where I tend to have high earning mature applicants and high earning youngsters the apps are typically approved
But make no mistake: when this Ponzi stops and / or rates move up just 1%, it will be lights out for many
And I don’t feel sorry for any of them
My conscious is clear
JO

#15 salonist on 06.08.16 at 7:14 pm

skinning for dollars

Human Pelts: The Art of Preserving Tattooed Skin After Death

https://www.vice.com/read/the-art-of-preserving-tattooed-skin-after-death-629

#16 Joblo on 06.08.16 at 7:15 pm

Bancouber. Hogtown, yada yada yada.
They don’t get it, next topic.

#17 Fitgeek on 06.08.16 at 7:16 pm

What percentage of the 2 million moisters actually have a mortgage?

#18 Renter's Revenge! on 06.08.16 at 7:18 pm

At least it’s not ‘fapulous’.

#19 Jungle on 06.08.16 at 7:18 pm

The realtors are ejackulating over their commission but once this house of cards flops, (pun intended), there will be no happy ending. :)

#20 Smartalox on 06.08.16 at 7:19 pm

That’s some ‘Spunky’ marketing there, Jim!

#21 Doug t on 06.08.16 at 7:21 pm

I bet Jim Reslein buys his fishing gear at Master Bait and Tackle

#22 Vancouver Troy on 06.08.16 at 7:28 pm

Bob

How about sexual predator?

#23 family beagle on 06.08.16 at 7:30 pm

Let the sane among us pack our bags, pets, and sundries for an epic pilgrimage north to somewheres near Bella Coola, wherein we shall establish Vancouver 2.0, and in a first order of business, outlaw speculation and implement a policies of economic harmony and inclusiveness, except ‘No Christy’s’. $Affordable/sqft and $Reasonable/acre max.

“Our ongoing goal is to ensure we understand the market in all of its complexity…” – Morneau

Jibberjabber for ‘our current theories are not reality-based.’

Aside, Canada won’t pay terrorists to spare a Canadian life in the Phillipines, but UofC pays cyber terrorists a ransom for email hack. Priorities.
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/matthew-fisher-after-canadian-hostage-beheaded-1m-reportedly-paid-to-terrorists-for-10-indonesian-sailors
http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/university-of-calgary-pays-20k-ransom-after-cyberattack-1.2935525

#24 Moneyfroma$ia on 06.08.16 at 7:33 pm

Garth,

So many canadian home owners now have mortgage helpers. (Rental suites)

If the government puts out a mandatory census questionnaire, why doesn’t the government tax on rental income? That would compromise all these high ratio mortgages that are partially supplemented by rental suites.

Enough is enough…
Do we really need to just wait for interest rates to rise? Rediculous!

#25 bdwy sktrn on 06.08.16 at 7:34 pm

#1 Bob on 06.08.16 at 6:47 pm
If we finally see the first female US president, what will we call Bill? First Man, First Husband, First Dude… Sir Firstalot?
———————–
Bob – Well played sir!

and jimmy gets b-slapped again!

jimmy and mark – daily failers.

#26 Blog Dog Joe on 06.08.16 at 7:38 pm

Jim is a premature poster….but at least he has spunk!

#27 For those about to flop... on 06.08.16 at 7:38 pm

I should have seen this post coming…

M41BC

#28 AK on 06.08.16 at 7:38 pm

#2 Jimmy on 06.08.16 at 6:50 pm

“Hillary is hot!”
====================================

All yours, Jimmy !!!!

#29 karma police on 06.08.16 at 7:39 pm

Looks like this blog is turning into karma police for the real estate agents. lol.

The financial stuff definitely though provides a balance that makes this blog very informative :)

#30 Scumop on 06.08.16 at 7:39 pm

This noise about foreign buyers. WTF.

Person X from a place whose names starts with A and ends with A (America, Asia, Africa, Atcetera)…

Buys property, such as a lot with a house on it. Scary stuff, eh!

$4,000,000 {or price of your choice} of money ARRIVES in Canada.

Person X now owns property in Canada.

Property is STILL IN CANADA. They don’t put it on a boat and ship it somewhere.

Best deal ever – money arrives, nothing leaves.

If X sells it to some other foreigner, even more money arrives.

This amazing windfall for Canada should be investigated and a plan developed get more buyers from A*a.

#31 Jeff Norris on 06.08.16 at 7:46 pm

In Toronto, every second listing is “stunning”. Decrepit semi with a kitchen from 1955 and built on a laneway – stunning! It’s stunning, alright, just not in the way the listing agent thinks.

#32 Lulu on 06.08.16 at 7:50 pm

#19 Doesn’t matter the market is up or down, agents always got clients, their commission may have a big deduction tho compare to the booming stages. a reputable one (very few) will survive up and down times because they are truly think of their clients first but the majority of them just pure greedy crooks, after you signed the dot, see ya!!

#33 Laughable on 06.08.16 at 7:50 pm

Read the Globe front page

“Chinese money distorting Vancouver market”

All you need to know.

#34 understood by few on 06.08.16 at 7:54 pm

Bring your own black light to that open house. Victoria had now reached unconditional offer territory.l, so you can’t rely on an inspector’s black light to she how, erm… emaculate the rooms are.

A friend went to an open house on a Friday. Junky all original rancher. 6 offers without conditions on day 1. Accepting offers until Monday. OK area, but someone is overpaying to live in a money pit.

In other new, yachts are cheap right now. Probably a better investment than Victoria RE.

I like yacht pricing as a measure of the economy. Lean selection when the economy is good, cheap and plentiful on a downturn.

#35 For those about to flop... on 06.08.16 at 7:57 pm

Joking Man and anyone else who would like to make a quick buck by betting on the Brexit.

Here’s what you need to know if it s close at the time of voting .

Sport ,not financial or humanitarian reasons will tip it one way or the other if my thesis is correct.

I will lay it out for you…First game …..this weekend.

Second round of games on the 16th of June

England and Wales are in the same group and play each other in this game

By Monday the 20th ……3 days before the vote the teams that are going on to the knockout stage will be decided.

If at this stage England and Wales don’t go through run for the leave side.

If Garth will allow I will give you guys some updates and tell you which way to place your bets.

Depending on the odds I would bet after the first set of games this weekend.

Remember this if you want them to stay you want England ,Wales and Northern Ireland to win

If you want them to affect the leave vote you want mainly England to stink it up.

Hope this helps…

Dr Flop Ph.D. Sportenomics

M41BC

#36 Metaxa on 06.08.16 at 8:03 pm

# 4 crowdedelevatorfartz writes:
I cant wait to “come” to the open house…..sorry couldnt “contain” myself….errrr sorry…..that sort of “burst forth”…..what I mean is …….
never mind.

That didn’t take long!
Can I offer you a tissue?

#37 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 8:15 pm

Bernie should run as an independent. Man did he get bitch slapped by the Clinton cleptocrats. He was about to sweep California and a day for with no voting MSM declares her a winner.

And I’m glad, he’s hard core commie, but man, talk about the ref handing over the win.

#38 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.08.16 at 8:17 pm

GTA prices have gained 15% year/year, with listings falling and demand rising…

what’s wrong with u ppl in YYZ??

#39 acdel on 06.08.16 at 8:21 pm

Poor Jim Reslein, ha,ha,ha, thanks for the laugh Garth, too funny!

Morneau, how much more information does one need?? Pure politics as usual..

#40 Warren - the lagging indicator on 06.08.16 at 8:21 pm

Hey Garth, I read that piece from the Canadian Capitalist. Just to let you know, even I can easily see the writer is a disingenuous person and/or has really never read your blog or can not comprehend your true meaning in what you write. If I become Internetly famous (just made that up) like you, is this what I have to look forward to?
People should not treat you this way just because you are a hairy, smelly old man of ill repute, for example, but rather they should question your actual thoughts and ideas. Not ones they conjure up in order to misrepresent and smear you.

#41 BobC on 06.08.16 at 8:21 pm

#9 Don’t tax me bro

Ok, but once that tax is in place don’t expect it to ever go away. Also you can count on it going up.
Any tax is a double edge sword. You only want to use it to hurt others but it always comes back to hurt you as well.
The problem just like in the states will correct itself with or without the tax.

#42 Grey Dog on 06.08.16 at 8:31 pm

Scumop,
The problem with person from A*a is they don’t personally invest in the neighbourhood…a blacked out house that gets lived in for 2 weeks at Christmas has the $400. Christmas evergreen urn out for over a year til the next time they return…it could be 14 months. Grass can be baled the middle of June. Thistles and other HUGE weeds…can grow 4-6 feet tall. If a huge branch falls from your tree, it will stay stranded on your front yard. House and yard maintenance, we have extreme hot and cold weather, lots of raccoons and squirrels. The yards around here used to be pristine, now it’s looking shabby, like that family from A*a really doesn’t care about the neighbourhood.

You see if your my neighbour, you tell me, or, I tell you, I’m going away for a week or for the entire season, you watch out for me…I watch out for you…you/I have the numbers of your/my lawn care/snow removal folks…neighbours supervise the goings on and if these guys aren’t keeping up to expectations, they hear from both you and me.

Municipal taxes on these homes do NOT pay for infrastructure. Yet, they land and take advantage of all the infrastructure, roads, shops, peaceful society in general, and the majority of these folks have no reported taxable Canadian income.

This gives me insight into how the locals at cottage country and locals in snowbird country feel though. ABANDONED. FYI We have no land there.

#43 toronto1 on 06.08.16 at 8:36 pm

I knew something was up when the top boys at the banks started calling for govt intervention– then the cap gains tax started, MSM even put out a few feelers. the tax was in talks but got axed last budget but the govt never meet a tax it did not like so it will come to be in time.

i was thinking this would be a slow melt but i hear almost daily from people in all walks of life chatter about it being a bubble– even from the RE cheerleaders at work, everyone seems to be talking about it….

my two cents, govt withdrawl of cmhc funds will kill this market fast– just like when oil was 120 and it was going to $200 but it dropped like a rock to $30’s or the Can dollar in free fall. Once this market slows down, no one will buy.

Interest rates are going up folks, they have to or else bonds and pension funds will all be going broke soon.

#44 For those about to flop... on 06.08.16 at 8:39 pm

It seems like Stephen Harpers secret tunnel has been discovered in Ottawa…

M41BC

#45 Cash is King on 06.08.16 at 8:42 pm

Looks like both T2 and Jim have a big mess on theirs hands.

#46 Metaxa on 06.08.16 at 8:44 pm

As the braying pack of newly inflamed, self described dawgs piles onto the anti T2 wagon let’s stop a moment and recall whose decades long policies began all this stuff.

Yer buddy Steve.
Sorry, Stephan Harper, former Leader of Stephan Harper’s Conservative Party of Canada. He liked it like that, even sent out a memo, eh?

Turning Canada into a failed petro state with real estate as its monetary churn took Harper a long, long time.

Turning it back into at least a facsimile of the country I grew up in will also take a long time.

Anybody else rember AHOP? Assisted Home Ownership Program. in the ’70’s. Look it up.

Now, before we go forward with today’s lesson, remember one of my rules to live by is “Its better to be rich than to appear to be rich”

Getting back won’t be accomplished until the Conservative Party of Canada re-discovers what truly is conservationism. Its not going to be done by this lot who lack the humility, grace and good will of a true conservative.

And its not going to be done by T2 and his minions either, not so long as the official opposition engages in stunts, are complicit in undermining Parliament and would rather make crude jokes about elbows than participate in and work for their constituencies and the House.

Some of you want to blow it up and watch it burn. Some of you are mad, anxious, watching the percentage stats of who is brown and who isn’t…until you figure all that misdirected chaff out and tell your elected representatives to stop the childish bologna and get to farking work it won’t happen either.

Until then both the NDP and Conservative parties are not electable. Might be multiple elections before any gains are made. You Harperites are blind to the stain he leaves behind, at your peril.

My lesson? I live in a AHOP house. Renovated? Sure. Backs onto a salmon stream and acres of woods? Sure.
Power/telephone/cable lines above ground? Sure. 80 foot trees along both sides and in the back yard and beyond to the stream? Sure. No mosquitoes? Sure.

So…I live humbly.
But I know I’m financially acres ahead of probably 80% of my fellow Canadians, maybe even you dear reader.

Thing is I’m willing and wanting to help out.
Those who aren’t are consigning themselves to the sidelines.

#47 Fed-up on 06.08.16 at 8:44 pm

#30 Scumop on 06.08.16 at 7:39 pm
This noise about foreign buyers. WTF.

Person X from a place whose names starts with A and ends with A (America, Asia, Africa, Atcetera)…

Buys property, such as a lot with a house on it. Scary stuff, eh!

$4,000,000 {or price of your choice} of money ARRIVES in Canada.

Person X now owns property in Canada.

Property is STILL IN CANADA. They don’t put it on a boat and ship it somewhere.

Best deal ever – money arrives, nothing leaves.

If X sells it to some other foreigner, even more money arrives.

This amazing windfall for Canada should be investigated and a plan developed get more buyers from A*a.
—————————————————————————–

Sure, allow a bunch of non-residents drive the cost of living for you or your loved ones through roof.

Best deal ever.

#48 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 8:46 pm

Look who’s going to Bilderberg

Why is Hadfield on list and I’m not. Unfair.

http://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/participants.html

#49 Dollaramanation on 06.08.16 at 8:46 pm

Awesomeness.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/dollarama-inc-beats-profit-expectations-and-opens-eight-new-stores-as-sales-and-margins-rise

#50 Darren on 06.08.16 at 8:46 pm

Heads the T2 gang loses, & tails the T2 gang lose.
Remember the housing price run-up in California (etc) a decade ago. The crisis of course was that housing was getting unaffordable. That corrected and housing became more affordable. This of course was a crisis as many had bought at the top and were now under water.
Crisis, Rinse-repeat.

#51 bsallergy on 06.08.16 at 8:53 pm

I’ve never been able to understand why anyone buying a house worth more than $300k should need mortgage insurance. But I own mine outright, have no debt, blablabla.

#52 common sense on 06.08.16 at 9:02 pm

#35 Flopper

Looking forward to your predictions…I’ll take more validity in them as opposed to the FED’s on interest rate hikes…

#53 Sheane Wallace on 06.08.16 at 9:07 pm

This is what is coming: idiocy tax.

Exactly the same laptop,. sold by the same vendor is 650 USD on amazon.com

http://www.amazon.com/HP-15-6-Inch-Touchscreen-Performance-i7-6700HQ/dp/B018KYXBBC?ie=UTF8&keywords=i7-6700hq&qid=1465434276&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1

and 1258 CAD (+HST!) on amazon.ca

https://www.amazon.ca/HP-i7-6700HQ-Quad-Core-Processor-Touchscreen/dp/B018YIGHVK/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1465434260&sr=8-1&keywords=i7-6700hq

This is the real purchasing power of the ‘currency’ we enjoy.

#54 Sheane Wallace on 06.08.16 at 9:11 pm

“Our ongoing goal is to ensure we understand the market in all of its complexity; that we consider all the evidence to determine what measures are necessary on an ongoing basis to ensure that Canadians have the ability to buy homes.”

so they are ‘insuring; 1.2 trillion in mortgages backed by the taxpayers WITHOUT knowing the complexity of the market?

What king of idiots these people are?

#55 Sheane Wallace on 06.08.16 at 9:14 pm

As I have said countless time, leave and fast and take away all your money with you.

There is no recovery from where we are. 5, 10 even 50 % adjustment down in house prices is nothing compared to fundamentals.

#56 turn_of_the_tide on 06.08.16 at 9:22 pm

I don’t know… it seems to me that when those who will be profiteering boom or bust are the banks, are they not?

Why would the banks want the lending to stop or self-regulate, they are doing all time business and when homeowners loose they will take the cake.

Also, out of curiosity when a house appreciates aren’t the property taxes levied on the owner also increased?

#57 Andrewt on 06.08.16 at 9:24 pm

The tone in the media seems to be shifting. Usually this about when the “it’s still a good time to buy” stories pop up to damage control.

There’s this Hail Mary, but reading the article Benny Tal qualifies the notion quite a bit:

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/6/6/How-a-tsunami-of-inheritances-could-ease-Canadas-housing-market-pain.aspx

#58 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:28 pm

Soros is shorting the markets huge.

Create and fund SJW to start a civil war. Short the market. Another ego feather in the cap.

He don’t need the loot. It’s all about winning over rivals.
That’s the story of Humanity.

Ugly fat chics who can’t get dates join man hating and anti hot chic groups.

Hot chics oblivious to all this after finding a sucker to milk. Just ask my wife.

#59 For those about to flop... on 06.08.16 at 9:31 pm

common sense on 06.08.16 at 9:02 pm
#35 Flopper

Looking forward to your predictions…I’ll take more validity in them as opposed to the FED’s on interest rate hikes…

/////////////////////////////

Hey Common,I try to help out where I can.
I don’t have that much to offer most times as I am a financial mutant.

By the way I sent you a joke the other day not sure if you seen it so I will repeat it as it is on your favourite topic.

It went something like this….Hey Common did you see Janet Yellen has been voted the worlds 3rd most powerful women behind Merkel and Clinton.

That’s not bad for a NFL punter who gets paid to kick the can down the road…

M41BC

#60 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:35 pm

With bond yields dropping like rocks and equities going through the roof. Where do you think the smart money going. Hint the bond market towers over equitys.

You’ve been warned.

Turner nation or dollar store man. Your looking good.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#61 TCContrarian on 06.08.16 at 9:36 pm

#54 Sheane Wallace on 06.08.16 at 9:11 pm
“Our ongoing goal is to ensure we understand the market in all of its complexity; that we consider all the evidence to determine what measures are necessary on an ongoing basis to ensure that Canadians have the ability to buy homes.”

so they are ‘insuring; 1.2 trillion in mortgages backed by the taxpayers WITHOUT knowing the complexity of the market?

What king of idiots these people are?
**********************************************

The worst kind of ‘idiots’: ones with power (over us)!

#62 For those about to flop... on 06.08.16 at 9:41 pm

#58 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:28 pm
Soros is shorting the markets huge.

Create and fund SJW to start a civil war. Short the market. Another ego feather in the cap.

He don’t need the loot. It’s all about winning over rivals.
That’s the story of Humanity.

Ugly fat chics who can’t get dates join man hating and anti hot chic groups.

Hot chics oblivious to all this after finding a sucker to milk. Just ask my wife.

////////////////////////////////

You been having the same reoccurring nightmare I’ve been having?

I keep dreaming I go out for a few beers with Russell Wilson and I wake up the next morning in bed with Rebel Wilson…

M41BC

#63 Caught on 06.08.16 at 9:46 pm

Dow 18000

Next stop 17000 or 20000?

#64 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:46 pm

#62 For those about to flop… on 06.08.16 at 9:41 pm
#58 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:28 pm
Soros is shorting the markets huge.

Create and fund SJW to start a civil war. Short the market. Another ego feather in the cap.

He don’t need the loot. It’s all about winning over rivals.
That’s the story of Humanity.

Ugly fat chics who can’t get dates join man hating and anti hot chic groups.

Hot chics oblivious to all this after finding a sucker to milk. Just ask my wife.

////////////////////////////////

You been having the same reoccurring nightmare I’ve been having?

I keep dreaming I go out for a few beers with Russell Wilson and I wake up the next morning in bed with Rebel Wilson…

M41BC
….

Who the hell is Wilson. I’m thinking soccer ball.

#65 slick on 06.08.16 at 9:51 pm

Hillary looks like she uses the same designer as Kim Jong-un, brighter colours tho.

#66 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:59 pm

I did the big one today. Met a blog dog,. Then the big walk around long branch, had a few smokes on the journey. Guess that disqualifies me for the Nobel peace prize.

But know this Valentine, one more month of this ludicrous behavior brought on by the wife’s obsession to fit into a smaller dress for my god daughters weeding, you will be able to bounce a golf ball of my ass.

However the other side is dead, smoking, sniffing, drinking, has draw backs. Sorry Sherly.

#67 Andrew Woburn on 06.08.16 at 10:04 pm

It’s obviously time to punt the bugshack and run but if you are tempted to plough all the proceeds into The Next Big Thing, i.e. Lithium, read this first.

– Right now, 45 per cent of global cobalt supply is consumed by lithium-ion battery production, and if lithium battery use doubles or triples as is expected, cobalt supply will be easily overwhelmed.

“It’s not scalable,” said Gerbrand Ceder of Berkeley Labs’ Materials Sciences Division. “If we’re ever to all drive electric vehicles, there’s no way a cobalt-only technology can make it.”

http://business.financialpost.com/midas-letter/next-generation-battery-technology-goodbye-lithium

#68 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 10:11 pm

#63 Caught on 06.08.16 at 9:46 pm
Dow 18000

Next stop 17000 or 20000?
…………………….
Sucked in like a midget playing a tuba

#69 Boom! on 06.08.16 at 10:12 pm

I…I… I think I small the smart dough taking some rather large gains off the table now. It has been a wonderful, surprising spring so far. Time to get a bit more cautious.

I see the herd spending rather large, but it is all on credit, not cash in hand. I would have thought most were topped out, but apparently not – yet.

So far, no rate hike in hand. Maybe next month, if stars align and the credit creek don’t rise.

All poly-tics all the time on the corporately owned media.
Sanders campaign is over, he “talks” to El Presidente tomorrow. I don’t expect much in that.

Interesting…. The conservative party has left the building, the liberals still can’t find the building… Jill Stein and the Green Party might be my rational alternative (though worthless) come November.

Tomorrow, I start the “sells” of the most radically run up stuff.

Besides, a new roof is on tap, also a new patio door. Renewal time here at the paid for shack in the pasture.

#70 Steerage Bilge on 06.08.16 at 10:13 pm

#60 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:35 pm

With bond yields dropping like rocks and equities going through the roof. Where do you think the smart money going. Hint the bond market towers over equitys.

You’ve been warned.

Turner nation or dollar store man. Your looking good.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

I recall you saying oil was gonna crash this week which would save your forex bet!! where you lost $1M smackaroos because you were too hung over to see the lousy US jobs report!!

#71 Lead Paint on 06.08.16 at 10:17 pm

#53 Sheane Wallace on 06.08.16 at 9:07 pm

Great post(s)!

No wonder our houses also cost twice as much…. we’re stupid enough to pay.

#72 Metaxa on 06.08.16 at 10:21 pm

Also, out of curiosity when a house appreciates aren’t the property taxes levied on the owner also increased?

You are conflating or confusing property appraisal and mill rate.

Your appraisal might go up (or down) but the amount you will pay in property tax is dependent on the town or city setting its mill rate.

It actually happened in my town a few years ago…property values were up but town had a budget that allowed them to lower the mill rate, hence pay less property taxes.

Hasn’t happened since tho…wonder why?

#73 Metaxa on 06.08.16 at 10:21 pm

Memo to self, must close tags!

#74 Get on the Hair Train on 06.08.16 at 10:25 pm

#65 slick on 06.08.16 at 9:51 pm

Hillary looks like she uses the same designer as Kim Jong-un, brighter colours tho.

———-
President orangutan to be has got them both beat and has Kim Jong’s support as well.

http://media.vanityfair.com/photos/5756d73c34d59c8547b42a82/master/h_1440,c_limit/donald-trump-meryl-streep-02.jpg

#75 conan on 06.08.16 at 10:25 pm

Chinese Ambassadors with angry hands. Check
RE double bubble investigation. Check
Sink hole of Doom in Ottawa. Check,
Morneau attending Bilderberg. Check, Check, Check

It’s Aliens, Vancouver, or both. A beat down is coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lm94tCaEkWo

#76 Damned if they do, damned if they don't on 06.08.16 at 10:27 pm

Too late for intervention Garth. In they intervene and market crashes, it will be the fault of T2 et al…not going to happen.

If they don’t it will eventually implode, but then too close to an election.

Best hope is to watch economy unravel, as it has begun to do, and blame that instead.

Prices begin to drop (as will job creation) and hope enough mills and moisters can then buy into the market…in time for the next election.

There, a scenario and most likely. Pessimistic: no one will buy without jobs. Optimistic: Free money rains from the heavens for the mills and moisters to spend (i.e., mass Boomer inheritances in a short time).

#77 Chopper Dude on 06.08.16 at 10:32 pm

#7 pathcontrolmonk on 06.08.16 at 7:01 pm
“…the T2 gang are in the throes of preparing a national housing policy designed to bring down the hammer on runaway markets. ”

Garth, what is your source?

===================================

Seriously Dude? Garth used to be Minister of Finance…

He is like the J. Edgar Hoover of Canada…. LOL

#78 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 10:32 pm

#70 Steerage Bilge on 06.08.16 at 10:13 pm
#60 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:35 pm

With bond yields dropping like rocks and equities going through the roof. Where do you think the smart money going. Hint the bond market towers over equitys.

You’ve been warned.

Turner nation or dollar store man. Your looking good.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

I recall you saying oil was gonna crash this week which would save your forex bet!! where you lost $1M smackaroos because you were too hung over to see the lousy US jobs report!!

…..
Happens every time I lean toward MSM.

Moving to Gaza where my mind and consciousness can be clear.

#79 common sense on 06.08.16 at 10:35 pm

#59 Flopper

Funny. Can? More like the financial world….

Just waiting for the can to ring hollow in the housing and stock markets…

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.16 at 10:41 pm

This just in from the CBC….
“Apparently the “sinkhole” in the Nations capital has been filled….
Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, while pushing Mike Duffy into the abyss slipped and also fell in….The hole has been completely filled and traffic can resume tomorrow am.”

#81 SWL1976 on 06.08.16 at 10:42 pm

#48 Smoking Man

Look who’s going to Bilderberg

Why is Hadfield on list and I’m not. Unfair.

http://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/participants.html

——————-

Our finance minister Bill got the invite. I wonder what the conversation will entail?

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.08.16 at 10:44 pm

@#36 Metaxa
“Can I offer you a tissue?”
*******************************************
errrrrr, ummm.
No.
No thank you. I always carry a few extra just in case my “elevator episodes” get a little…….shall we say…………..over zealous.

#83 Long Branch Apprentice on 06.08.16 at 10:51 pm

I may not have granite counter tops and an Audi A4, but I have something that most blog dogs can only dream of.

Today, I met Smoking Man in the flesh. Face to face. He reeked of booze and dressed like he just robbed a Thrift Store. Poor guy, I even had to buy him a coffee at the Timmy’s. He kept going on and on about Area 51 and Operation MK Ultra. Nice guy though.

#84 turn of the tide on 06.08.16 at 10:51 pm

@#72 Metaxa on 06.08.16 at 10:21 pm

Thanks! Isn’t that happening in places like Vancouver right though? Whole neighborhoods have much higher valuations, that should increase the mill rate big time, right? Cheers.

#85 S.Bby on 06.08.16 at 10:54 pm

Sex sells…

#86 Shirley Valentine on 06.08.16 at 11:01 pm

#66 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:59 pm

I did the big one today. Met a blog dog,. Then the big walk around long branch, had a few smokes on the journey. Guess that disqualifies me for the Nobel peace prize.

But know this Valentine, one more month of this ludicrous behavior brought on by the wife’s obsession to fit into a smaller dress for my god daughters weeding, you will be able to bounce a golf ball of my ass.

However the other side is dead, smoking, sniffing, drinking, has draw backs. Sorry Sherly.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Dedication!
The Smokey Stud’s “Buns of Steel” training video will be included as a bonus in the upcoming book release.. It is upcoming right? There are 100 million readers of this blog anticipating the big release of the smokey beast.

#87 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 11:01 pm

The god damn humane perfect cultural thing in Ontario runs mo foo office.

This thing has good attributes , teacher talk. You’re in good safe hands.

Humans: idiots its in my report to the counsel on Nictonite.

#88 Sebee on 06.08.16 at 11:14 pm

That’s what happens when you dictate to siri while rubbing one out to the mental image of the commission check paid for by a fool.

#89 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 11:16 pm

#83 Long Branch Apprentice on 06.08.16 at 10:51 pm
I may not have granite counter tops and an Audi A4, but I have something that most blog dogs can only dream of.

Today, I met Smoking Man in the flesh. Face to face. He reeked of booze and dressed like he just robbed a Thrift Store. Poor guy, I even had to buy him a coffee at the Timmy’s. He kept going on and on about Area 51 and Operation MK Ultra. Nice guy though.
….
Bastard; I sill love ya. You get it.

#90 Damifino on 06.08.16 at 11:16 pm

#79 S.Bby

Sex sells…
——————————

Really?

I’ve bought an awful lot of stuff in my time. Don’t remember getting a scrap of sex for any of it.

#91 Vanreal on 06.08.16 at 11:16 pm

Garth. What you are saying makes no sense. How can they raise rates when our economy is in the toilet. The only thing they can do is continue to trash talk housing and hope that that scares people away. There is so much money tied up in real estate that if they tinker too much and cause it to crash it will bring the whole economy down. On the other side of the coin, Vancouver has the highest growth rate in the country right now. As the rest of the country tanks, Vancouver just keeps growing. Lots of money is flowing from one generation to the next. I just don’t see this stopping. I see Toronto in much greater risk of a drop with the provincial government’s crazy climate plan killing growth.

#92 Julie K. on 06.08.16 at 11:19 pm

Now that it is official, hoping for first-term White Office scandal involving Hilary and a powerful, young intern wearing a blue suit and smoking a really big Cuban cigar…

#whatsgoodforthegoose

#93 Life among the Tsars on 06.08.16 at 11:20 pm

#77 Chopper Dude on 06.08.16 at 10:32 pm

#7 pathcontrolmonk on 06.08.16 at 7:01 pm
“…the T2 gang are in the throes of preparing a national housing policy designed to bring down the hammer on runaway markets. ”

Garth, what is your source?

===================================

Seriously Dude? Garth used to be Minister of Finance…

He is like the J. Edgar Hoover of Canada…. LOL

Garth’s a cross-dresser?

#94 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 11:21 pm

#86 Shirley Valentine on 06.08.16 at 11:01 pm
#66 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:59 pm

I did the big one today. Met a blog dog,. Then the big walk around long branch, had a few smokes on the journey. Guess that disqualifies me for the Nobel peace prize.

But know this Valentine, one more month of this ludicrous behavior brought on by the wife’s obsession to fit into a smaller dress for my god daughters weeding, you will be able to bounce a golf ball of my ass.

However the other side is dead, smoking, sniffing, drinking, has draw backs. Sorry Sherly.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Dedication!
The Smokey Stud’s “Buns of Steel” training video will be included as a bonus in the upcoming book release.. It is upcoming right? There are 100 million readers of this blog anticipating the big release of the smokey beast.
….
No work ethic . Can someone motivate me. Gut Check?
Now that the front is broken. I’m doomed to sharing my drunkin rants here.

Yeah conspiracy theorists, I’m Gartho

#95 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 11:38 pm

#86 Shirley Valentine on 06.08.16 at 11:01 pm
#66 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:59 pm

I did the big one today. Met a blog dog,. Then the big walk around long branch, had a few smokes on the journey. Guess that disqualifies me for the Nobel peace prize.

But know this Valentine, one more month of this ludicrous behavior brought on by the wife’s obsession to fit into a smaller dress for my god daughters weeding, you will be able to bounce a golf ball of my ass.

However the other side is dead, smoking, sniffing, drinking, has draw backs. Sorry Sherly.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Dedication!
The Smokey Stud’s “Buns of Steel” training video will be included as a bonus in the upcoming book release.. It is upcoming right? There are 100 million readers of this blog anticipating the big release of the smokey beast.
…..

Stage fright. Been here for 57 years. Sort of worried about the critic, and judgement . Yeah

One day I will get hammed beyond belief and finish the beast.

#96 WUL on 06.09.16 at 12:18 am

Late here in Ft. Mac. So, the geotechnical crowd and a raft of other scientists are hard at it in the Gulf of Mexico trying to determine why the dinosaurs died out in a short period of time, possibly due to a meteor strike.

Seems to me that it would have been far simpler and cheaper to simply attend the speech of Premier Brad Wall to the Petroleum Club in Calgary today and watch extinction unfold in real time.

That is why I liked the Linoleum Club at the Bay store better in the old days.

#97 Shane on 06.09.16 at 12:27 am

It will jack the scrutiny of foreign buyers (after intense political pressure), but not restrict them.

But I thought you said foreign buyers are irrelevant?! Who cares is they are restricted. Or am I missing something ?

#98 Shane on 06.09.16 at 12:29 am

And 32 million Twitter user accounts hacked.

My bet is its the gov.

Twitter is the last bastion of free press. Once Twitter is buried, make sure you know a government official to protect yourself and to make money.

#99 Balmuto on 06.09.16 at 12:34 am

#38 Walmark of Sadkatoon

“GTA prices have gained 15% year/year, with listings falling and demand rising…

what’s wrong with u ppl in YYZ??”

Rents up, condos up, semis up, detached up. There’s no escape. Toronto is just becoming a more expensive city to live in, period. Luckily there are lots of good-paying jobs here. Vancouver makes much less sense relative to the local economy.

#100 NEVER GIVE UP on 06.09.16 at 1:32 am

Australia has tightened up foreign buyers immensely with very punitive fines for those breaking the rules. Now the overflow is going where the rules are lax.

Where is that? Right here in Suckerland!.

The naivete’ of our elected leaders is astounding!

Watch for weak new rules to pander to the voters and then watch to see what Asian culture will do to trash those rules.

As a person who spent 12 years of my life in the Orient. I can tell you that finding ways around the law is simply a cultural sport.

They use the law much the same way we use Regulations, Associations, Colleges (dental etc.) and other instruments of exclusion.

The businessmen who know how to corrupt, crony or bribe their way around laws have an exclusive on the business with a ring of protection from competition.

Same corrupt practice as us just a different method of execution.

So watch for plenty of children of criminals and money launderers buying homes in YVR and GTA.
Also look for plenty of new incorporated companies owned by other companies that are owned by companies in privacy jurisdictions to be buying homes here.

Having an expensive home in a stable soft democracy like ours is much better than getting caught in the home country and going to the re-education camp for 15 years and losing all!

#101 what stupidity ???? on 06.09.16 at 1:32 am

Flipping houses makes a lot of money.
Sure beats flipping used cars.
Btw….flipping used cars is illegal, flipping house IS NOT.

#102 macroman on 06.09.16 at 2:14 am

DELETED

#103 macroman on 06.09.16 at 2:36 am

Smoking man, I’d love to bounce a golf ball off your ass.

Got my all time longest drive two weeks ago…385 yards.

At 30 yards it would go through your ass and out your other ass.

#104 jane 24 on 06.09.16 at 4:05 am

Right back from 2 weeks in Canada, Lordy the jet lag on flying East is awful. It was our first trip back in 2 years.

Observations are as follows:

1. There is nothing at all for sale in the GTA re RE. People are afraid to move in case they can’t find anything. Listing to buyer ratio is way out of whack.

2. Secondary malls are ghost towns selling ‘market tat’. Primary malls are still busy (Yorkdale) but sales are already on at many top end stores including The Room at the Bay downtown. I got some nice designer stuff at 50% off. Incredible for only May.

3. I went to Hamilton for the first time in 15 years. Wow what a change. No more drunks and folk shopping in their nightwear. More 50’s diners, craft shops and boutiques. Plus you can still get a 4 bed brick detached on a nice rd for just $275,000.

Re the Uk referendum, always follow the bookies nose. With the exception of Leicester City’s rise to the top of the Premier Football league, they are always right. They currently have Leave at favs. Beats any posh poll.

#105 Cheeky Duck on 06.09.16 at 5:47 am

DELETE

#106 AfterTheHouseSold on 06.09.16 at 7:48 am

Meanwhile back at the Ontario car plants where labour contracts are upcoming, the union threatens to strike their way out of their jobs. They must have missed the memo about Mexico.

“Now the union is taking its own hard line, saying there won’t be an agreement unless a new product is slated for the Oshawa plant.”

http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/union-threatens-strike-at-gm-canada-if-new-vehicles-arent-allocated-to-oshawa-plant

On a brighter note, GM Canada to announce Friday, plans to hire up to 1000 engineers at Oshawa R&D centre.

#107 maxx on 06.09.16 at 7:51 am

Inelegant Freudian slip which characterizes perfectly the sick Canadian re market.

Which is greater I wonder: HH or FOMO? Either way, the realtard ends up smiling on the beach, not the schmuck left behind with excess mortgage debt.

There is nothing T2 and his coiffed retinue can do about the mess. Nothing until rates rise.

The “solution” will consist of a series of limp half-measures and impotent “guidelines” allowing the mess to continue to metastasize.

Willfully blind gubbmint will do absolutely ANYTHING to avoid normalizing rates, which is likely the single, most effective cure, economy be damned.

Pushing the problem down the road means those who voted T2 in will very likely soon wake up to a major “wtf” moment.

New government in about 4.5 years? Yup.

#108 rosie on 06.09.16 at 7:51 am

Lower the CMHA insurance rate to the local average or $500000, whichever fits. We as a society cannot afford to cover the costs incurred by this greedy bunch of idiots and their equally stupid boomer parents. We can only afford to cover the greedy bankers.

#109 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 06.09.16 at 7:55 am

You didn’t listen when we said foreign buyers were escalating prices. so maybe you will have some long term vision when I say that the government could help abate this supply problem not by screwing with the market but by fixing something they caused. The “demand rise” of the equation. Reduce the quota of immigrants from 80,000 a year to 10,000 for a while. Reduce the demand and stop focusing on the supply problem which has never been a problem before.

#110 salonist on 06.09.16 at 8:45 am

Silos and Bunkers
For Sale

Locations throughout the United States

http://www.hardenedstructures.com/bunkers-for-Sale.php

#111 2-10-4 Texas Type on 06.09.16 at 8:47 am

‘…looking for somebody to blame.’

That’s easy! Blame the nasty Conservatives, especially Stephen Harper, for plotting to lose the last election, so T2 would be in power when the economy, and the RE market, finally tanks.

Problem solved!

#112 Dan Duran on 06.09.16 at 8:59 am

New house prices up 2% Y/Y. No problem. But everybody is focused on resales. It is morally wrong to analyze my private transaction to another private person. I am not asking you to disclose to me what you buy, for how much and then I should decide whether you can afford it or not. As long as lending regulations are followed. You have an iPhone, a BMW and an Armani suit, two dogs and a cat that require gourmet, organic food. I don’t. Your problem is with your city, the number of building permits it issues, the type of housing being built. Stop butting into my personal finances.

#113 A box in the Sky on 06.09.16 at 9:04 am

#104 jane 24 on 06.09.16 at 4:05 am
Re the Uk referendum, always follow the bookies nose. With the exception of Leicester City’s rise to the top of the Premier Football league, they are always right. They currently have Leave at favs. Beats any posh poll.

———————–

Oh look, our resident Brit snob is lying like usual.

William Hill has the “Leave” at 3.50. If you calculate the vig-free price, the Leave has a 27% chance of happening.

#114 Arfmooocat on 06.09.16 at 9:09 am

Half of all new jobs created in Ontario in 2015 were in real estate… lol

Now you know why the government doesn’t want to do anything.

#115 Dan Duran on 06.09.16 at 9:18 am

@Jo, Strange, you are a lender yet you think a 1% move in rates will impact a high earner? Let me see.. If you borrow 5X (which is on the high side) your income, the impact will be 5% on your income, and it’s fair to assume that a high earner has a higher discretionary income. So don’t worry so much, be happy. I would question what that 1% rate hike would do to our economy, if it doesn’t come as a result of rising wages. And how much lower the rates will go when the recession ensues (hint: look at rates in Europe and Japan).

#116 Caught on 06.09.16 at 9:50 am

Global bond yields continue to plummet. US 10-year went through 1.7%. Is the market playing chicken with the Fed or is it telling the truth?

#117 CJBob on 06.09.16 at 10:05 am

Garth: “But you can count on mortgage rates increasing as the financial guys face enhanced capital requirements and deal with a partial withdrawal of CMHC coverage on new originations.”
__________________________
With the current competition for mortgage money you’re talking about .2% at the most and I doubt that much.

#118 Gigi Fitzsimmons on 06.09.16 at 10:19 am

Interest rates are supposed to be increasing but the opposite is happening.

Look at Canada’s 10 year bond rate today, 1.16%. The 30 year is 1.83% today.

These are rates during a slowdown not economic strength.

#119 Renter's Revenge! on 06.09.16 at 10:32 am

#90 Damifino on 06.08.16 at 11:16 pm
#79 S.Bby

Sex sells…
——————————

Really?

I’ve bought an awful lot of stuff in my time. Don’t remember getting a scrap of sex for any of it.

———————————————————-

It’s called “bait and switch”. Or in the case of Poor Jim Reslein, master bait and switch.

#120 Rational Optimist on 06.09.16 at 10:37 am

104 jane 24 on 06.09.16 at 4:05 am

“3. I went to Hamilton for the first time in 15 years. Wow what a change. No more drunks and folk shopping in their nightwear. More 50’s diners, craft shops and boutiques. Plus you can still get a 4 bed brick detached on a nice rd for just $275,000.”

I assure you, there are plenty of drunks and pyjama-clad shoppers (and worse) in Hamilton. I am guessing you stayed in the west end. I am sure that people visit Westdale and Locke Street, see the hipsters, then go home to check MLS and see that you can get a great house in Gibson for cheap. Of course you can: it’s Gibson, it’s not Westdale.

I’m glad you had a nice visit to Hamilton. You’re lucky you were just visiting.

#121 A Canadian Abroad on 06.09.16 at 11:02 am

“Canadian Housing Correction coming to a house near you.”

When the gov’t, media and everyone is talking about a housing correction, 450% income debt levels to get a mortgage and Poloz says not to expect house price increases…

it’s over.

Sell now or ride the tsunami down.

What’s the opposite expression of “buy now or be priced out forever”?

#122 Ole Doberman on 06.09.16 at 11:07 am

LOL from a joke government. Our officials have lined their pockets allowing foreign money to offshore into Canadian RE and now they’re cracking down on it.

A firing squad would be too kind to deal with this type of corruption, but oh well judgement day comes for everyone eventually.

#123 Aggregator on 06.09.16 at 11:09 am

BoC Financial Review: The proportion of insured mortgages with high loan-to-income ratios has been rising – chart

Surprise! It's not all foreign buyers. And here's another stunning statistic: As of March total RE dollar volume was $56.8 billion according to CREA data, of which Toronto and Vancouver accounted for $45.3 billion. That's 79% of  the market!. Which as we just found out by the chart above was mainly high loan-to-income ratios to buy soaring record prices.

And who insured all these mortgages (subprimes) in Q1? Genworth Canada Chart Which by the way is 90% backed by the government. Also banks are using more covered bonds for funding, that by the way, in reality is a contingent liability (bailout) of the government if a bank can't cover bond payments.

So forget all this political postering about containing Canada's housing market because it should be blatantly clear by now that while the government says it wants to contain rising prices, it's still pumping it up. Alas, any tapering or scaling back at this point would send Canada's housing market crashing. This is what happens when a government becomes the housing market's biggest market maker. Now they can't leave.

#124 Ugly Fat Chicks against Smoking Men on 06.09.16 at 11:13 am

#58 Smoking Man on 06.08.16 at 9:28 pm

Soros is shorting the markets huge.
Create and fund SJW to start a civil war. Short the market. Another ego feather in the cap.
He don’t need the loot. It’s all about winning over rivals.
That’s the story of Humanity.
Ugly fat chics who can’t get dates join man hating and anti hot chic groups.
Hot chics oblivious to all this after finding a sucker to milk. Just ask my wife.

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
Why is your old hag into hot chicks?
Your stories are rather boring, ya gotta beef it up now.

#125 Rainclouds on 06.09.16 at 11:44 am

#104 Jane the pompous

England is a wonderful country, Brits are great people, I love their humour and grace. You seem to have missed the memo.

No doubt the UK feels blessed to have a poncy, smug, feckless, transplanted hick from the colonies in their midst. Obvious you suck the oxygen out of whatever country you grace.

My condolences to England, but thanks…..

#126 Arfmooocat on 06.09.16 at 11:45 am

Poloz sure can dance around the questions reporters want answered

#127 TorontoBull on 06.09.16 at 11:46 am

from the Bank of Canada:
“In particular, in Vancouver and Toronto, resale activity and price growth are high, supported by migration and employment gains. Foreign demand is also playing a role in specific segments of the GVA and GTA markets. A recent CMHC survey reported that foreign ownership in newer condominium apartment structures has increased in the past year, reaching 6.0 per cent in Vancouver and 7.5 per cent in Toronto in 2015.Market reports also suggest that international interest in the Vancouver and Toronto luxury markets remains strong, boosted recently by a lower Canadian dollar.

To the extent that foreign demand reflects buy and-hold
investment, it does not directly increase the risk of a house price correction. Together with other factors stoking demand, however, foreign demand does contribute to price increases that are driving the rise in household indebtedness.”
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/fsr-june2016.pdf

#128 Ole Doberman on 06.09.16 at 11:49 am

Interesting comment I pulled off a social media site pertaining to this BNN article:

“I was living in Dublin, Ireland in 2005. We were considering buying the condo we were living in. After talking to the owner I realized that my rent (EUR2500/month) only covered about 25% of his mortgage, property tax and maintenance. The condo, a 2/2 without air-conditioning was going for over EUR2M! We made more money that most folks but we couldn’t afford that! I knew then and there that we should get out of Ireland. I told all of my Irish friends–many of whom had second homes as well as investment properties–to sell everything. They laughed at me and said Ireland was different than other countries and that I was underestimating the “Celtic Tiger”. We left Ireland and moved to Toronto in part because of an article I read in the Economist that pointed out that at the time Toronto had one of the best income-to-house price ratios of any cosmopolitan, English speaking city. The irony of course is that today Toronto and Vancouver are the worse in the world on that measure. And we all know what happened to the Celtic Tiger.”

http://beta.bnn.ca/it-is-a-stretch-home-ownership-increasingly-a-pipe-dream-in-toronto-vancouver-1.504126

Lets hope so and keep our fingers crossed

#129 NoName on 06.09.16 at 11:53 am

FOMO dude @google

try to guess other of his abrivations before clickin on a link
FOBO-
FODA-
FOFU-(this one is tricky)

https://youtu.be/fDAP9LUDckQ

#130 Vanexit on 06.09.16 at 12:11 pm

#121 A Canadian Abroad

I think the opposite is “Dont try to catch a falling knife. Let fall to the floor then pick it up.”

#131 Elgordo on 06.09.16 at 12:15 pm

Ole Doberman says

“the Economist that pointed out that at the time Toronto had one of the best income-to-house price ratios of any cosmopolitan, English speaking city. The irony of course is that today Toronto and Vancouver are the worse in the world on that measure.”

Toronto and Vancouver are not English speaking cities. That is a myth.

#132 ch on 06.09.16 at 12:25 pm

When everyone was saying its all chinese buying up everything i was like, i dont know man … I normally go against the grain b/c people can get crazy. I thought i was so smart. This time though, this time was different, it is all Chinese and its a global shift in capital. it really IS different this time, just my luck.

I definitely didnt think the govt would deny there is an issue. I learned my lesson, i gambled and i lost, so it goes. Its not like that isnt the only dream that hasnt come true for me, i can handle it. Next time ill do the smart thing and follow the herd.

#133 Tick Tock on 06.09.16 at 12:29 pm

Another morsel thrown out to keep the hopes up of sideline renters for another ‘year or two.’

Anybody dealing with bureaucracy knows that this is a trial balloon to hopefully get the masses to pair back their buying binge. Same as the years and years of the BOC warning us of debt levels of rising interest rates.

If anyone thinks that T2 will be able to propose, consult, develop and implement a market measure that has an intended consequence of cooling prices within a couple of years should buy the bridge I have for sale.

If the market has gone up 30-40% in one year, renters need to realize how long it will take for those prices to fall back down right. Even if you have a ‘crash’ of 50% you are basically back to 2010 prices after another 5-10 years of a decline.

Lets face it, the market is a juggernaut. Shall we review:
– stock market correction of 2015 – no impact on RE prices
– recession watch and weak economy of 2015/16 – no impact on RE prices
– oil losing more than half of it value – no impact on RE prices
– major change in federal governments and policies – no impact on RE prices

Another useless glimmer of hope for change….

#134 NoName on 06.09.16 at 12:36 pm

@floppy

if you have an hour to waste guy who studied andts, fish and other heard animals did some study on soccer. very interesting.

Soccermatics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnYRTdOW0Uk

#135 Smoking Man on 06.09.16 at 12:40 pm

Ha Poloz is pissed he can’t drop the overnight rate to help exporters.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/bank-of-canada-issues-stern-warning-on-toronto-vancouver-housing-markets-1.2938420

#136 family beagle on 06.09.16 at 12:53 pm

Because this blog is one of the threads in the fabric of modern Canadian society, I wanted to exploit its reach with a ‘thank you’ to Shell Oil for contributing to the high Arctic marine sanctuary and relinquishing energy leases in the area.

This is good, very good, and far more important than an overpriced condo. Thankfully some Canadians still have legitimate priorities. Blessings upon all involved. I think I’ll fill up my lawnmower at Shell today.

#137 Randy on 06.09.16 at 12:57 pm

The Liberals have charged all the Infrastructure and Services costs to the Ontario $300 Billion Debt… instead of charging the residents of Toronto and the GTA for all those Great Free Government Services.

No wonder there is a Huge Real Estate Bubble in Toronto and the GTA #onpoli Property Taxes are way too low for the costs of Government Union Services and Government Union Education Services in Toronto and the GTA.

Close your eyes and it smells like what happened in places like Detroit and Chicago
https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/06/09/bank-of-canada-warns-of-sharp-correction-in-toronto-vancouver-real-estate.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

#138 Schengen for USA and Canada on 06.09.16 at 1:03 pm

Schengen for USA and Canada!

Demand it.

Time to get out of Vancouver and Toronto.

#139 Brazil ex-pat on 06.09.16 at 1:11 pm

4.7% unemployment in the USA

HAHAHHAAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHA

https://www.rt.com/usa/346001-us-jobless-looking-work/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

#140 Ace Goodheart on 06.09.16 at 1:30 pm

This is funny. This is truly the Canadian way of dealing with a housing price bubble “meltdown”. The government gets involved and figures out a way to manipulate the market to cause the prices to decrease. Only in Canada.

We all sit here, apparently now being given knowledge that a valuable asset is in the process of being deflated, by the government. No cease trade order while this occurs (how can you cease trade houses?). Just, hey folks, govt will intervene to sort out real estate so everyone can once again afford a house.

If anyone who reads this, believes that what I have just written above, is actually going to happen, I have some cool swamp land in Florida that I want to sell you. Just needs a little draining. Perfect for a vacation property (if you can get rid of the alligators).

#141 Ace Goodheart on 06.09.16 at 1:40 pm

RE: # 11 Caught:

“When the government gets this interested in a sector you know you’re near a top. The same happened with the Alberta govt & oil royalties – right before the oil crash.”

The govt is ‘eff’d on this one. Play with the ability to buy and sell a house, you are nationalizing the housing stock. Might as well turn your neighbourhood into a social housing project. As soon as a person doesn’t have the ability to sell his/her house to anyone he/she chooses, for any price he/she can get, we are no longer a liberal democracy. We are Cuba.

Raise interest rates, and they are printing money. They can’t afford the massive debt they’ve taken on, in their efforts to get and stay elected. Print money, and house prices remain high (and get higher). It is a capital asset, not reproducible without effort (and not at all in Toronto and Vancouver, unless they find another dimension, as there is no land left to build on).

Play with taxes – the most likely outcome (and how governments usually solve problems, apply a new tax). Will be interesting to see how that plays out. Probably will have minimal effect, if any.

If JT wants to make it possible for more people to afford a house, then raising down payment thresholds, is not a good idea.

Like I said, they are ‘eff’d. Totally. I would not want to be them.

#142 James on 06.09.16 at 1:58 pm

Meanwhile, it will be the kids – the two million new voters who bandwagoned the selfie PM – getting squished the hardest in any meaningful real estate correction. They have the most debt, the least equity, the greatest risk, the scantest experience and the most unfounded of expectations. The last thing they surmised ending up owing more than they owe, living in illiquid condos and looking for somebody to blame.
_________________________________________
Serve the millennials right, they can take their stinking selfie PM and shove him and his whole lot up where the sun don’t shine. I love the way they will always blame the Boomers for their downfall when it all comes apart. Me, I’m a Generation X’r so they will blame us next for their stupidity. I was in an argument yesterday with a millennial that was full of self-righteous Indignation. Blamed the entire Boomer generation and Generation X for all of their own failures. I can’t purchase a home in the core and all I can afford is this lousy condo. My fees keep going up and I can’t sell it because I can’t afford a home. To which I replied I didn’t tell you to purchase anything so don’t blame me. He then went on to blame the last ten years of Stephen Harpers government for him problems. Then he went on to blame the international trade situation around the world for his failures at finding meaningful employment in his particular profession. Wait until the shit hits the fan when rate go up! Who ya gonna blame “Ghost Busters”

#143 Freedom First on 06.09.16 at 2:14 pm

#108 Rosie

Right on the money Rosie! Perfectly said!

The majority of people taking on big debt end up wondering how they could have been so stupid. Fact.

#144 Noel on 06.09.16 at 2:20 pm

Neither the government nor the central bank have any desire to see house prices fall. In fact its in their best interests to have interest rates as low as possible for as long as possible.

Think about how much employment and tax revenue consistent house price appreciation in Toronto and Vancouver bring. Its beneficial for banks, retailers, construction firms, lenders, realtors, industrials, auto dealerships… the list goes on.

And to those who think a crash in these two cities is all but inevitable even without any gov’t intervention, take a few minutes to do some research on property prices in Hong Kong, Mumbai, Singapore, San Francisco, Manhattan, Beijing, Sydney, London, Paris etc etc.

Prices in many cities are multiples of what they are in Toronto and Vancouver (even more so when factoring in the weakening Canadian dollar), are all those markets going to crash too? If not why not?

#145 Balmuto on 06.09.16 at 2:25 pm

#128 Ole Doberman on 06.09.16 at 11:49 am
“Interesting comment I pulled off a social media site pertaining to this BNN article:

“I was living in Dublin, Ireland in 2005. We were considering buying the condo we were living in. After talking to the owner I realized that my rent (EUR2500/month) only covered about 25% of his mortgage, property tax and maintenance. The condo, a 2/2 without air-conditioning was going for over EUR2M!””

Right, and a condo in Toronto right now that rents for $2500 sells for $550k-$600k tops. No way can you rent a $2 million condo in Toronto for $2500 a month. So that just illustrates that on a price-to-rent basis Toronto is nowhere near Celtic Tiger levels. I don’t know about Vancouver.

Your statement about price-to-income ratios is true but we all know you can’t use price-to-income ratios that prevailed in a much higher interest rate environment as a benchmark for current levels. It’s carrying costs that matter.

#146 HenriG on 06.09.16 at 2:33 pm

#83 Long Branch Apprentice on 06.08.16 at 10:51 pm

Today, I met Smoking Man in the flesh. Face to face. He reeked of booze and dressed like he just robbed a Thrift Store. Poor guy, I even had to buy him a coffee at the Timmy’s. He kept going on and on about Area 51 and Operation MK Ultra. Nice guy though.
============
Did it take a while to wash off the smell of failure?

#147 pony on 06.09.16 at 2:36 pm

It’s been a long time, that real estate should have crashed and interest rates risen, but they still haven’t.

Debt expansion has enormous and unprecedented power this time around.

The world has entered a paradigm that no one really comprehends.

#148 WUL on 06.09.16 at 2:43 pm

Enough about the lunacy in Vancouver and the Centre of the Expanding Universe.

The Miskanaw Golf Club here in Fort McMurray is offering free golf for evacuees for the next 13 days.

If I dredge up my Cree language skills, I think “Miskanaw” means “this guy cannot putt very well”.

#149 Blacksheep on 06.09.16 at 2:59 pm

Interesting labor chart for US jobs (recovery?).

I don’t see wage inflation, forcing the FED to move.

Source: FRED

http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/tue3.jpg

#150 X on 06.09.16 at 3:24 pm

Not expecting alot from the gov’t or Finance Minister Bill Morneau on this one. Sure something to get some tax money out of non Canadians speculating on our RE market, but am doubtful the needed changes to balance the market will take place.

#151 Sheane Wallace on 06.09.16 at 3:39 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-says-household-sector-vulnerabilities-higher-143503824–business.html

It is not BOC’s fault, the guys there are apparently disengaged and pretend that they don’t care about the housing market.

“The bank would likely use higher rates only to cool the housing market in extreme circumstances, said Royce Mendes, economist at CIBC Capital Markets.”

So we apparently still don’t have the ‘extreme circumstances’ (I do believe that we have (such extreme, extraordinary circumstances) for something like 10 + years)
“That leaves it up to other policymakers to quell the growing concerns,” Mendes said.
And who are these other police makers?
It is not the federal government’s fault either:

“When you talk about federal government action, we have such heavy levers that impact the entire country,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in an interview with BNN that aired on Thursday. “We have to be very careful about how we engage.”

The guy does not even know that he is the market (through CMHC).

Remove CMHC and BOC and house prices in To/Van would be 25-30 % from current if lenders are on the hook for the absolutely ridiculously subprime loans that borrowers ‘enjoy’.

Is this really the one eyed leading the blind or something much, much deeper and intentional?

#152 Russ on 06.09.16 at 3:39 pm

WUL on 06.09.16 at 2:43 pm

The Miskanaw Golf Club here in Fort McMurray is offering free golf for evacuees for the next 13 days.

If I dredge up my Cree language skills, I think “Miskanaw” means “this guy cannot putt very well”.
================

Yup. And “miskanaawun” is a three-putt.

#153 Sheane Wallace on 06.09.16 at 3:47 pm

#150 X

They will apply diversion, go after professional corporations to create some noise, their role is ultimately to create some smoke and mirror for the magic trick that will take away our life savings and benefits.

If they have any integrity, then they will institute windfall capital gains tax on house appreciation.

The finance minister is even talking about affordable housing! with houses with price tags over million!

What an oxymoron!

#154 farsyd on 06.09.16 at 3:54 pm

Whatever the Feds do to housing, they do to the economy that relies on it for growth. It does not seem in their self-interest to douse the raging fire that are home prices. Ditto for provincial and municipal governments. Only way out is for rates to rise and that is where I respectfully part with Garth. Charlie Brown has a better chance of kicking that football than Yellen raising rates in 2016.

#155 Snoopy on 06.09.16 at 4:11 pm

Read something today I hadn’t realized until now.

To make 60k a year during retirement the only safe investment is 3 million dollars in a bond ETF with a duration of 7 years+.

Someone needs to tell me how 60 years old are planning to make this work.

You need to learn more about bonds. And investing. — Garth

#156 Damifino on 06.09.16 at 4:20 pm

#145 Balmuto

Right, and a condo in Toronto right now that rents for $2500 sells for $550k-$600k tops[…..]I don’t know about Vancouver.
——————————–

I know about Vancouver. Right now, a condo that sells for $1.2 M (there’s lots) would rent for about $2800.

But nobody gives a damn about cap rates when RE is increasing 25% annually. If you own a YVR condo why even bother to rent? It would get taxed anyway.

Why not just sit back and enjoy your skyrocketing net worth?

#157 Sean on 06.09.16 at 4:35 pm

Any opinion on this?

http://larrysummers.com/2016/02/17/the-age-of-secular-stagnation/

seems to make a lot of sense. either people are saving up for their down payments or other purchases or are putting all the money they have into their house.

Don’t have an expensive wedding! you can use that for a down payment.
New car? Are you crazy, get a used one.

Everyone seems to be stuck.

#158 CMHC is the problem on 06.09.16 at 4:40 pm

Sheane Wallace on 06.09.16 at 3:39 pm
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-says-household-sector-vulnerabilities-higher-143503824–business.html

It is not BOC’s fault, the guys there are apparently disengaged and pretend that they don’t care about the housing market.

“The bank would likely use higher rates only to cool the housing market in extreme circumstances, said Royce Mendes, economist at CIBC Capital Markets.”

So we apparently still don’t have the ‘extreme circumstances’ (I do believe that we have (such extreme, extraordinary circumstances) for something like 10 + years)
“That leaves it up to other policymakers to quell the growing concerns,” Mendes said.
And who are these other police makers?
It is not the federal government’s fault either:

“When you talk about federal government action, we have such heavy levers that impact the entire country,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in an interview with BNN that aired on Thursday. “We have to be very careful about how we engage.”

The guy does not even know that he is the market (through CMHC).

Remove CMHC and BOC and house prices in To/Van would be 25-30 % from current if lenders are on the hook for the absolutely ridiculously subprime loans that borrowers ‘enjoy’.

Is this really the one eyed leading the blind or something much, much deeper and intentional?
—————————————————————–

Everyone knows CMHC is the problem . Everyone knows without CMHC prices would drop fast and hard to affordable levels. Canada is nothing but a house of lies.

#159 Entrepreneur on 06.09.16 at 4:56 pm

This talk about the leaders not doing anything, worried about the election: A “great” leader would do something now about foreign buyers for Canadians that live here and not worry about an election.

I would be correct to say #100 Never Give Up that Australia has “great” leaders, doing something right now about foreign buyers, true to their people and land.

#160 Ole Doberman on 06.09.16 at 5:13 pm

Looks like it’s land scarcity that is driving house prices, should of known, guess we can cancel this blog – mystery solved:

http://beta.bnn.ca/no-secret-to-what-s-driving-home-prices-higher-c-d-howe-1.504257

#161 maxx on 06.09.16 at 5:15 pm

#30 Scumop on 06.08.16 at 7:39 pm

If person X makes a killing on the sale to person Y and person X commutes the net proceeds and capital gains abroad, it certainly does take something out.

Rinse and repeat and you’ve got resultingly larger mortgage loads in idiot HH/FOMO land.

#162 45north on 06.09.16 at 6:26 pm

Meanwhile, it will be the kids – two million new voters – getting squished the hardest in any meaningful real estate correction. They have the most debt, the least equity, the greatest risk, the scantest experience and the most unfounded of expectations.

so what’s Bill Morneau going to do? I’d say give the kids as much time as possible to make adjustments. The tough part is “meaningful real estate correction”. I know when you’re in Vancouver give the speech in French!

#163 Dr Talc on 06.09.16 at 6:58 pm

CMHC is not the problem.
CMHC is bank sponsored hoax management.
The hoax is that there is risk in collateral loans.
There is no risk.

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.09.16 at 7:07 pm

@#139 Brazil ExPat

actually what makes ME laugh is Brazil throwing an “olympic” sized party while their economy continues to swirl the bowl.
All while more of their “leaders ” are charged with corruption, influence peddling and bribery……

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-economic-woes-deepen-amid-political-crisis-1458946356&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjAn7e9h5zNAhVW0WMKHUn8DGgQFggjMAI&usg=AFQjCNHn33pp2micpu5Zf5UAVxEU0MHPwA

Oh right, I forgot to laugh……

ha ha ha.

#165 Dina Pulaziksy on 06.10.16 at 11:43 am

Poloz did no need to cut interest rates this time because bond yields are already dropping alot since his last meeting.

The Canada 30 year is 1.81% when t was 2.1% or so just a couple of months ago.

Shorter term 5, 10 years are really low at 0.59%, 1.14%.

#166 Dan Duran on 06.10.16 at 3:36 pm

Dream on. In the meantime bonds are making new lows globally and smartest analysts out there predict negative interest rates to come to North America soon. Watch your cash in the bank! In case you choose to keep it under the mattress in your rental apartment, I wish you good luck! If robbers don’t get to it, pretty soon, QE4, 5 and 6 will.

#167 barb on 06.10.16 at 4:47 pm

While it’s unlikely that foreign buyers–who bought a home on a city lot–will resort to the following tactic, get a load of what this homeowner in Kelowna did.

As reported by the Kelowna Capital News recently, the home, at $10.8 million, is THE HIGHEST ASSESSED VALUE of any Okanagan property.

To save on taxes, they’ve applied for and received FARM STATUS.
Their new assessment? $3.9 million.
Saves ’em about 40 grand annually in taxes.

Story and photo here:
http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/news/local_news/article_78a627d2-0c07-11e6-a15e-b32fe6c74f23.html