The funk

TROJANS modified

On Friday this brave, quixotic little blog commented on the latest US jobs report, daring to point out that things ain’t so bad with the unemployment rate falling and wages rising. Well, if you read the comments section which followed, you know this site managed to attract a boatload of hairshirted, nihilistic doomers & bullion-lickers who think the United States of Trump is an evil empire about to turn life as we know it into a smoky pile of toxic, indebted rubble.

While this won’t happen, there certainly are some things to worry about, besides your weight, sex life, nebulous pension and whatever that was your dog ate in the park last night.

Like Brexit. A month ago this was a yawner, with analysts everywhere convinced Britons would vote on June 23rd to stay in the European Union, just like boss David Cameron instructed. But it turns out UK locals are in a mood – just like Trump and Sanders-loving US locals – and whatever the Establishment tells them to do is opposite to what they will.

So the pound took another heave-ho Monday after not one, but three, new opinion polls showed the “Leave” side is trouncing the “Remain” forces by about five points. Most worrisome, the gap has been consistently growing in recent days, and there’s still two weeks to go.

If this holds, the UK currency will fall steadily until the vote, tumble more on the results, and lead to some serious volatility on European and global markets. Will this send Europe back to the Middle Ages, and nullify all those expensive efforts by the central bank there to battle deflation? Beats me. But it’s doubtful. Expect a new treaty, and a big buying opportunity.

Next thing to worry about is closer to home. Dig this chart:

HOUSING CHART

It shows the direct contribution of real estate development to the national economy. It’s at an historic high, as you can see – approaching 8% of GDP. When you add in the extra activity generated by resales – like realtor commissions and marketing, insurance and mortgage financing – the share of the economy jumps above 13%. In comparison, all of our manufacturing (including cars) equals 10.5%, while the energy, oil and mining industries combined come to a mere 8%.

Macquarie Research, which compiled the chart, says, “Residential investments as a percentage of GDP are at an all-time high. While the broader economy attempts to stabilize, residential construction has been accelerating and is now at a peak… Given the cyclical nature f this sector, the risk is tilted towards slower construction spending in the upcoming years.” And let’s remember that the US economy tanked with less RE exposure.

Just one more log on the fire, after two major bank CEOs have started lobbying for higher down payments and a BC credit union is questioning tax-free capital gains on houses. When this mother pops, it won’t be quietly.

Now, how about the slowing American economy? And Trump?

The May job-creation numbers (38,000) sucked, and data for the previously two months was revised lower. The bond market immediately dropped yields ten bips, suggesting the great American recovery is shedding momentum and interest rate increases will be shelved. For sure, a June hike is off that table, thanks to the latest data and the Brexit thing. But don’t be so sure the Fed is packing it in. “I continue to think that the federal funds rate will probably need to rise gradually over time,” said boss Janet Yellen on Monday, “to ensure price stability and maximum sustainable employment in the longer run.”

What do we make of this? Two things. After creating three million jobs in the past two years, the US is not stalling out and a month or two of crappy data might end up meaning nothing. But it comes at a bad time, when the race for the White House is between a baggage-laden career political operative and a populist billionaire lunatic.

Trump can’t win. But the journey from now to November could be wild on the markets. In fact, this summer – complete with the UK vote, American data angst and a rumoured move by Ottawa to drop the hammer on housing – could see some classic roller-coastering. The best defence is a diversified portfolio, with broad exposure to global markets, not too much maple and assets that are not correlated to the equity markets. That includes real estate investment trusts, plus inflation-loving real return bonds and bargain-priced preferreds.

Most of all, don’t invest for the moment. Or let some insecure, anonymous blowhard on a dodgy, heretical blog run by a bearded guy scare you into selling perfectly good assets when they temporarily decline. By the same token, don’t fall for the siren some of the house-pumpers who tell you real estate is benign and will rise without end. While a house in Ottawa or Kamloops may not represent a big risk right now, one in Richmond Hill, or Richmond, surely does.

Doomers have a role to play. Like proctologists. But keep your distance.

178 comments ↓

#1 Doug t on 06.06.16 at 5:45 pm

Doomed if you do doomed if you don’t

Brexit check
Trump prez check

I love me some good doom

#2 Janet Yellen’s remarks on 06.06.16 at 5:45 pm

Janet Yellen’s remarks today confused the people who think the world turns on the Jobs numbers since they remain clueless with respect to the changing trend in employment. They do not take into consideration the technology shift, so they are still trying to trade from 20th-century concepts. Yellen gave an outlook of the U.S. economy and said that interest rate hikes are coming. Higher rates are needed for pension funds, and the decision will cause the stock market to take off which will appear like asset inflation.
“I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones,” Yellen said. She expressly stated with regard to the Jobs Report data that the Fed will respond “only to the extent that we determine or come to the view that the data is meaningful in terms of changing our view of the medium- and longer-term economic outlook.”
This is the 21st century. Focusing on the Jobs Report to determine a recession is out of touch with the full dynamic scope of what is taking place.

#3 For those about to flop... on 06.06.16 at 5:51 pm

Apparently Brazil is extremely relieved to find out that the gold medals that are to be handed out in two months time aren’t real gold.

It is the host nations duty to mint the medals but the “gold” medal is 92% silver with a touch of gold mixed in.

So effectively the first two athletes get silver medals and the third gets some copper.

The last time solid gold medals were handed out was over 100 years ago in Stockholm,Sweden 1912.

One Goldbug was quoted as saying”Damn straight,these people who get paid to play for a living aren’t getting there hands on our precious gold”.

With a lot of top athletes now withdrawing from the games a think tank has been set up by the IOC to see what can be done to reverse this trend.

The IOC has just announced that all athletes that compete at the games will be given a steel medal comprising of two circles at the closing ceremony just for surviving the Zika virus.

The IOC said the design is to signify that they have balls of steel…

M41BC

#4 Brian Ripley on 06.06.16 at 5:58 pm

My Canadian SFDs priced in USD chart:
http://www.chpc.biz/canadian-housing-in-usd.html

Canadian real estate became another 1% cheaper in USD on the May data. I suspect a U.S. Fed rate rise will translate into a bigger spread between CAD/USD

#5 rainclouds on 06.06.16 at 6:00 pm

“a rumoured move by Ottawa to drop the hammer on housing”

Presumably this will become more concrete in the ensuing days, and become fodder for the GF blogmeister………….

#6 Md on 06.06.16 at 6:02 pm

Love the picture.

#7 Randy on 06.06.16 at 6:06 pm

Newsflash –
Hillary Clinton plans to withdraw from the Presidential Election as a brain tumor was discovered during her recent colonoscopy.
Looks like Bernie Saunders or Hair-Plugs Biden for the Dems.

#8 bdwy sktrn on 06.06.16 at 6:09 pm

“I continue to think that the federal funds rate will probably need to rise gradually over time

————————-
wow. just wow. the woman is some kind of kreskin/einstein hybrid.

this is really big, important, game changing news that we have ?never? heard before.

—————-
another prediction using the same language…

“I continue to think that the rain will probably need to fall if the flowers are to grow.

————-
i just BLEW you mind, eh?

#9 jess on 06.06.16 at 6:09 pm

Did You Know?

64 Million Americans struggled to pay medical bills in 2014.
More than 11 million people will take on additional credit card debt this year to cover mounting medical expenses.
Nearly 15 million people will deplete their savings to cover medical bills.
Another 10 million will be unable to pay for basic necessities because of these bills.
Some 43 million Americans have delinquent medical debt on their credit reports – one out of five.
For 15 million people, medical debt is the only debt they have in these reports.

=============
john oliver became a debt buyer
15m for 60k and then forgave it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxUAntt1z2c
“And I can prove that to you because I am an idiot and we started a debt-buying company,” said Oliver. “And it was disturbingly easy.”

Last Week Tonight spent about $50 to create a debt-acquisition company in Mississippi. The corporation’s name is Central Asset Recovery Professionals Inc – also known as Carp. According to Oliver, soon after its creation, Carp was offered a portfolio of medical debt worth $14,922,261.76 at a cost of “less than half a cent on a dollar, which is less than $60,000”.
==================
Occupy activists abolish $3.85m in Corinthian Colleges students’ loan debt
Rolling Jubilee activist group buys student debt at knockdown price to inspire Americans to ‘exert collective power’

US sues Corinthian Colleges for ‘predatory lending’
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/sep/17/occupy-activists-student-debt-corinthian-colleges

#10 bdwy sktrn on 06.06.16 at 6:12 pm

I have a question: how does it feel to be smarter, yet poorer, than everybody else?

———————
haha good question!

I’ll take dumb and rich with lots of paid off 604 dirt

#11 John C on 06.06.16 at 6:12 pm

Trump can’t win…

————————

And he could not get the nomination

https://www.instagram.com/p/BF41LOUmhRp/?taken-by=realdonaldtrump

#12 WallOfWorry on 06.06.16 at 6:16 pm

People who point out that the US recovery hasn’t been as robust as some like to believe are not doomers? Or is it just anyone who has a contrarian opinion to your own? You can point to the job creation but for every data point there is a counter-point. The fact remains that the US GDP growth is anemic, global macro issues are significant so prudence is required. If people blindly followed you then they have been more wrong than right over the last 7 years. So maybe try to find some humility Garth because if people got out of real estate when you advised it would have maybe been the worst financial decision that they could make in their life.

#13 Charlie Brown on 06.06.16 at 6:20 pm

So, my economics professor back in the stone age made a remark that kept with me all these years. Interest rate direction is like steering a super tanker – one degree turn takes miles to actually have any effect. I believe all this talk is for show, the Fed is in no position to make any changes as of yet! They probably see no healthy rebound for the foreseeable future (IMHO) Plus, another aspect I have to throw out there – job creation of 400K per month is just to maintain a economy – newly arriving immigrants, those finishing school need those numbers just to keep this boat afloat.

#14 Julia on 06.06.16 at 6:26 pm

Got our new MPAC assessment in the mail today. What the heck? Much higher than I thought and that was as at January.
Insanity.

#15 greyhound on 06.06.16 at 6:26 pm

“Well, if you read the comments section which followed, you know this site managed to attract a boatload of hairshirted, nihilistic doomers & bullion-lickers who think the United States of Trump is an evil empire about to turn life as we know it into a smoky pile of toxic, indebted rubble.”
LOL
Gotta hand it to Mr Turner — he really knows how to turn a phrase!

#16 I Like Trump on 06.06.16 at 6:30 pm

Go Trump, go!

#17 blobby on 06.06.16 at 6:33 pm

0 chance of Trump eh?

I wish I had your confidence.

#18 Brian on 06.06.16 at 6:42 pm

Mr. Turner

It would be interesting to hear what you have to say about how a correction in Vancouver or Toronto will affect property values in less popular spots. For example, how will a correction in Toronto affect property values in say..Kingston or Barrie.

Or even further afield, how a correction in the primary over valued spots might affect property values in Nova Scotia or Manitoba.

Any stats that can be shared? Not everyone lives in Van or YYZ

#19 TRT on 06.06.16 at 6:47 pm

Hope Brexit happens.

Too much fear mongering by media and vested interests.

Hope Trump wins for the same reasons.

Establishment is scared these days. But some countries citizens are waking up.

#20 Mocha on 06.06.16 at 6:49 pm

But Garth, the very nature of your posting style encourages doomerism:
The Brexit will be a disaster. A Trump presidency will be a disaster.
Neither of those two possibilities are likely to have much effect on anything in the long run.
A Brexit could even turn out to be advantageous for North American trade, and should Trump win, he’ll run up against the wall of a completely broken and dysfunctional US congress, whose approval rating currently flirts with the single digits, percentage wise, as well as the checks and balances designed to keep any president from flying off the handle. It’s all just fear mongering. He will ruffle some feathers among globalists and race/gender baiters, but while he’s busy with that, the same group who have been running things for decades will continue to do so. And that’s if he even wins, which I wouldn’t bet on, although I would like to see it.

#21 mark on 06.06.16 at 6:49 pm

To say Trump cant win is simple ignorance.

Last time i looked at a probability line by people who make a living adjusting and figuring out a odds line for current events gave trump a 30 chance of winning, less than a month ago.
There lively hood depends on them being accurate for there business to make money.

The only thing that might be for sure is the preferred share market is still crap, and continues to be one of the worst asset groups for years, as has been pointed out by the “white paper” on the canadian couch potato web site backed by sound research, that they hurt returns in a balanced portfolio period.

#22 Bob on 06.06.16 at 6:51 pm

Unfortunately Trump will win in November…

Leftist protesters over the next several months will ensure he wins.

#23 james on 06.06.16 at 6:58 pm

“Trump can’t win”

oh, but you might regret those words. Apparently you are unaware that he has significant support from Asian Americans and blacks. Not to mention the ‘This is Mexico’ signs popping up at counter-rallies are causing a stir down here. Many Democrats are also fed up of illegal immigration.

“While a house in Ottawa or Kamloops may not represent a big risk right now, one in Richmond Hill, or Richmond, surely does.”

Disagree. Houses in Kamloops, for instance, are still significantly overvalued compared to historical norms. Compare them to houses in Spokane, which has a better economy.

#24 Mr. Frugal on 06.06.16 at 6:58 pm

Obama signs a nuclear deal with Iran and you call Trump a lunatic!!! BTW, if I recall correctly it was Bill Clinton that signed a nuclear deal with North Korea effectively paving the way for them to develop nuclear weapons.

#25 Arfmooocat on 06.06.16 at 7:05 pm

If Trump was President, I’d watch the Evening News again.

#26 Dan on 06.06.16 at 7:08 pm

Doomers don’t have credibility, but neither do you after incessantly calling bottoms in interest rates for years and years.

https://nftrh.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/tyx.png?w=825

#27 mark on 06.06.16 at 7:10 pm

How quickly we forget.

http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/garth-turners-dodgy-advice/

#28 For those about to flop... on 06.06.16 at 7:13 pm

One bright spot in the U.S jobs report the other day was the fact that 56,000 new jobs were created in the health industry.

If it wasn’t for the Silver Tsunami getting old, job creation would be even worse…

M41BC

#29 Cottingham a bargain on 06.06.16 at 7:14 pm

The only risk to owning Richmond Hill real estate is owning to little of it.

Dedicated rapid transit in 4 years and subway within 10

#30 Boom! on 06.06.16 at 7:17 pm

I’ll not waste my time, or meager talent commenting on the unknowns, it is currently fruitless.

What I will comment ion is the nice rise in utilities REITS, and selected stocks within healthcare, oils, and those yummy preffereds.

So far I’m on track (5), to have a nice year this year. I’m going to cash in some of those gains for the new roof, some work on the old Caddy (broke the antenna, and the dam passenger seat).

I feel the need for a summer vacation, so that HAS to happen. Why not? The gains are there (now) and who the heck knows of tomorrow.

Tomorrow is ‘date day’ here in the cow pasture, so will drop the new idea on the lady, after a few cocktails.

Trump, Hillary, interest rates rising, Brexit. Such crap, has no real bearing on the price of booze, food, gas or the other essentials of life. By the way, did I mention he have volunteered to attend a church conference next week? If they have any brains they will through my hectic ass out of there, but who knows, maybe they’re Trump or Hillary supporters. Maybe Green party, or athletic supporters?

It does take all kinds to make it fun, and necessary right?

#31 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 7:18 pm

Trump in a landslide.

No one factors in cultural revolt. You ask anyone on wall street or main street that are aware of pc and conqueres they will say never trump in public.

Now when they get to the ballot box and no one knows who they are voting for its Trump all the way.

People are feed up with progressive bull shit.
And the revolt is coming to ontario politics in two more years.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#32 The Great Gazoo on 06.06.16 at 7:20 pm

Tours of Kingston Pen went on sale today for this summer and fall. If you don’t buy from this batch (1/2 of inventory), more tickets will be available on July 5th.

http://www.kingstonpentour.com/

#33 AK on 06.06.16 at 7:20 pm

According to Bloomberg, Commodities are Entering a Bull Market

#34 nonplused on 06.06.16 at 7:23 pm

#3 For those about to flop…

Why do Olympic medals need to be made out of gold? The intrinsic value of any medal, even the tin ones they give kids for “participation”, is what the medal signifies, not what it’s made out of. So the intrinsic value of an Olympic gold metal is that you came in first in your particular event, and that is worth far more than the $3000 or so the medal might be worth melted down if it were made of 90% gold.

It’s the same with coinage in the modern age. A quarter is not worth $0.25 melted down, but 4 of them still count as a dollar towards your mortgage payment. When a coin becomes worth close to it’s melt value it’s removed from circulation aka the penny twice now (the first time they replaced the copper with zinc and this time they replaced it with electrons.)

(PS what I mean by replacing the penny with electrons is that most transactions are done electronically now and they are not rounded to 5 cents. Only cash transactions are rounded. Still, 100 of those electrons with pay a dollar on your mortgage.)

(PPS watch for the nickel to come in the crosshairs soon and be rounded to 10 cents. It is also near worth more melted than in circulation so out of circulation it will come.)

#35 data on 06.06.16 at 7:29 pm

STOP WORKING, BUY VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-04/vancouver-homeowners-made-more-sitting-their-assets-last-year-entire-population-did-

#36 Joseph on 06.06.16 at 7:30 pm

I have 100K invested with [email protected] in four varied bank mutual funds, generating very minimal growth. I am sure I can do better myself in ETF’s. Any suggestions from Turnerland of ETF’s with decent returns?

#37 Brian on 06.06.16 at 7:31 pm

Not so bad in the States? Oh – except for the bad part –

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/03/jobs-report-bls-decline-in-temporary-workers-population-growth/

#38 bigtowne on 06.06.16 at 7:34 pm

If Canada can elect Mr. T….America is free to elect their own Mr. T.

On a positive note this will not be a hunky dorey situation for the Wynn/Trudeau camp and their carbon capture greening of the Canadian landscape.

We are fortunate to be sleeping next to The Friendly Giant…anyone remember Casey? Gosh, that was a good CBC show. They were all white..no kidding.

#39 Capt. Serious on 06.06.16 at 7:38 pm

Doomers don’t have credibility, but neither do you after incessantly calling bottoms in interest rates for years and years.

Sure, but you get that we had a financial crisis that pushed rates unusually low from whence we have not returned yet, right? Reversion has to happen eventually. Sure, you can bet rates will never rise, but, well, good luck with that.

So, my economics professor back in the stone age made a remark that kept with me all these years. Interest rate direction is like steering a super tanker – one degree turn takes miles to actually have any effect.

Um, but with the lag between policy change and policy impact (over half a year, salt to taste), the Fed rate will rise in anticipation of future inflation. The Fed, IMHO, is just doing a really long winded job of preparing markets for higher rates. They want to make really really sure everyone understands that will be the new direction before they go. Once they start, no stopping until normalized (barring disaster). Brexit probably holds them off a bit. Ditto election.

#40 Tax my Capital Gains! on 06.06.16 at 7:40 pm

I’m all in favor of having my capital gains on my primary residence taxed so long as I can also write off all my capital losses such as depreciation on my cars, computers, that stupid Fridge that I paid $4,000 for and now ain’t worth nothing, and the new shingles I had to put on my roof. Plus I already pay property taxes on my residence so I want to write that off too.

They can’t have it both ways. If they want to turn households into taxable businesses then they have to treat all household expenses as if they were business expenses. And if they want to do that, then YES PLEASE! TAX MY CAPITAL GAINS! My income tax rate will be pretty close to zero and I’ll finally have some money left over to save in my TFSA.

I don’t live in Vancouver or Toronto, so my house does not appreciate as fast as my cars depreciate and the city stings me for property taxes. If they are willing to use the business model, they are welcome to tax my capital gains on my house.

Imagine knowing that if you need a new roof or driveway you can deduct it from your income! Makes the decision a lot easier.

Also if house prices crash (or correct as Garth says it) that’s fine too I’m getting a deduction there too according to the business model of taxation. I’ll also be able to write of “realty fees” as that is an expense of course. And “land transfer taxes”??? “Land transfer write-off”!

#41 WillD on 06.06.16 at 7:43 pm

Predicting a rate hike in June or latest July. This is no longer about the “data”. It’s about the Fed trying to raise credibility which is at an all time low. She’s got something to prove. Just like in poker, sometimes you have to play the player, not the cards.

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.16 at 7:52 pm

The number 1 concern amoung Europeans( including Brits) is not their economy, jobs or the environment…..its the immigration/refugee crisis.
The “Brexit” referendum results whether close or a yes to seperate will be a combination of the “immigration fears” and voters thumbing their noses at the status quo leadership that has shown anything BUT leadership.
The “known unknown” in the Brexit vote will be Scotland.
Pro EU Scotland that vowed to hold another separation referendum if Brexit succeeds and Britain leaves the European Union…… Poor old Blighty (and the Financial centers in London) may not be around much longer if they cant do cross border transactions with the rest of Europe…….and then Vancouver will have to deal with obnoxious Russian Billionaires trying to park their Mercedes SUV’s next to Lambourginis with “new” driver stickers…………the horror.

#43 Tony on 06.06.16 at 7:52 pm

A house in Ottawa is a big risk that will probably fall 40 percent in value since Peterborough is a 40 percent discount to Ottawa and is closer to Toronto. When it all implodes the fringe cities will drop 10 percent and the major cities will drop 70 percent. Condos, apartments and townhouses will drop 80 percent. The same thing happened in America and real estate is double topping down there.

#44 acdel on 06.06.16 at 7:53 pm

Doomers “NO”, realist “YES”, the true numbers will come out after the American election.

#45 Randy on 06.06.16 at 7:54 pm

Yellen Choices…Default or Print Money…Let me see…?? Moving to Puerto Rico..haha. It could be worse, you could be a hedge fund manager.

#46 Fed-up on 06.06.16 at 7:54 pm

“I continue to think that the federal funds rate will probably need to rise gradually over time,” said boss Janet Yellen on Monday, “to ensure price stability and maximum sustainable employment in the longer run.”

What do we make of this?

——————————————————————————-

Ummm that Janet Yellen is circus clown of a Fed Chairperson with zero credibility?

#47 Hmmm... on 06.06.16 at 7:55 pm

Tax my Capital Gains!,

What do the numbers look like buying your house through a numbered company as a rental property and then renting it to yourself? Can it even be done? Or how about renting from a friend or stranger and then having all your real-estate allocation in a similar rental property or in real estate trusts?

I have to look into this. I know you can self mortgage from your RRSP but why can’t a company you own rent you your house? Thus, even lawn maintenance becomes deductible. Not to mention interest on the mortgage.

Garth? Seems my understanding of the law is a little sketchy here.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.16 at 7:56 pm

@#27 mark.
Then put your money where your mouth is and go buy a house.

#49 Mark M. on 06.06.16 at 7:58 pm

Even Yellen knows the 4.7% unemployment rate Garth touted Friday is nonsense. This is from her prepared remarks:

“And while the unemployment rate was reported to have fallen further in May, that decline occurred not because more people had jobs but because fewer people reported that they were actively seeking work.”

Sounds like good news. Still think we’ll get those four hikes this year, and two more from last year. This economy is on fire!

#50 For those about to flop... on 06.06.16 at 8:00 pm

#33 nonplused on 06.06.16 at 7:23 pm
#3 For those about to flop…

Why do Olympic medals need to be made out of gold? The intrinsic value of any medal, even the tin ones they give kids for “participation”, is what the medal signifies, not what it’s made out of. So the intrinsic value of an Olympic gold metal is that you came in first in your particular event, and that is worth far more than the $3000 or so the medal might be worth melted down if it were made of 90% gold.

It’s the same with coinage in the modern age. A quarter is not worth $0.25 melted down, but 4 of them still count as a dollar towards your mortgage payment. When a coin becomes worth close to it’s melt value it’s removed from circulation aka the penny twice now (the first time they replaced the copper with zinc and this time they replaced it with electrons.)

(PS what I mean by replacing the penny with electrons is that most transactions are done electronically now and they are not rounded to 5 cents. Only cash transactions are rounded. Still, 100 of those electrons with pay a dollar on your mortgage.)

(PPS watch for the nickel to come in the crosshairs soon and be rounded to 10 cents. It is also near worth more melted than in circulation so out of circulation it will come.)

//////////////////////////

Hey Nonplused….umm,I just want to point out that my post at number 3 is satire.

You make some valid points but do you really think the International Olympic Committee is going to sanction putting steel balls around athletes necks for surviving the Zika virus…

M41BC

#51 If US attacked before November... on 06.06.16 at 8:03 pm

Garth correct in calling Trump “a populist billionaire lunatic”; however, if the US is seriously attacked by the lunatics in the Middle East (and not from lunatics from within), between now and November, then Trump will win and probably in a landslide.

#52 Get on the hair train on 06.06.16 at 8:04 pm

1. The complex superstructure that is Donald Trump’s hair.
2. A masterpiece whose guiding principal is a heroic desire to completely conceal the forehead.
3. A thin sheath of perfectly placed strands.
4. An abandoned nest.
5. A hairspray labyrinth.
6. It appears to be a comb-over, but, incredibly, it doesn’t arrive from any direction. You cannot stare at The Donald’s hair very long. It’s like staring into the sun.
7. A decomposing ear of corn.
8. A corn husk doll cursed by a witch.
9. An ambitious corn dog that escaped from the concession stand at a rural Alabama fairground, stole an unattended wig, hopped a freight train to Atlantic City and never looked back.
10. The furrowed wake that a speedboat would leave on a lake of orange sherbet.
11. A Mobius combover.
12. (His hair) resembles the behaviour of alpha chimps who, as primatologist Frans de Waal reports in ‘Chimpanzee Politics,’ make their hair stand on end in order to look large.
13. The male equivalent of a push-up bra.
14. An upside-down Twitter logo.
15. A mullet that died in some horrific accident.
16. Carefully crafted helmet of fine gossamer, woven into a precise immovable template.
17. Golden fleece.
18. Dyed the nascent yellow of a baby chick.
19. A hue best described as ‘Cigarette-stained teeth blond.’
20. The patriotic shade of amber waves of grain.
21. A ginger forest.
22. Orange fizz.
23. Burnt Cheetos auburn.
24. The same unplaceable tinge as the marble in the Trump Tower lobby.
25. The ginger flank of Trump’s hair was plastered firm down at the sides, and a side parting had emerged. The back was long, straggly, and running free.
26. Orange and matted on the sides, and now white/silver, wispy, swept back, defying the laws of physics and practicality on top.
27. More flyaways than LAX.
28. More soft-serve swirl than Dairy Queen.
29. An aggressive cowlick gone rogue.
30. An unruly shrub.
31. An unfortunate situation.
32. This multidirectional comb-over is so complex that even engineers marvel at its structure. Resistant to wind and rain, NASA has looked at it as a possible Shuttle Shield.
33. The roll of sod that never looked quite right in your yard.
34. Farcical follicle humiliation.
35. Combed like he’s televangelist Benny Hinn.
36. Like Biff, from “Back to the Future.”
37. Like Lucille Ball.
38. Like a troll doll.
39. Dyson Airbladed.
40. Norwegian bunch grass.
41. Mexican feather grass.
42. A South American Flannel caterpillar.
43. The hair of 33 Barbie dolls.
44. A hairpiece come to life.
45. It is a flourish. On top, it flows forward to the forehead where it does a fine, serpentine U-turn, while along the sides it sweeps over the tops of his ears like rows of cirrus clouds.
46. (It) appears to be courting the women’s vote, combed on the left side of his head in the shape of a vagina.
47. A pancake hat.
48. An omelette.
49. Bread at the end of the loaf.
50. A wavy slant that seems to defy gravity.
51. White roots and light filaments wrapped and wrapped around the back of his head.
52. An airboat skimming the Everglades
53. The halo of meticulously crafted bulls—-.
54. A Kangol hat made of spun sugar.
55. What appears to be Daniel Boone’s mythical coonskin cap.
56. A pumpkin having a nervous breakdown.
57. Bolted down like a storm cellar door.
58. Decomposing pumpkin pie inhabited by vicious albino squirrels.
59. A viscous, bird-killing oil slick.
60. Fine strands of gold-plated fur.
61. A horse’s mane blowing in the wind.
62. A dead skunk.
63. A radioactive skunk.
64. A dead squirrel.
65. A mutant squirrel.
66. A beaver’s tail.
67. A very well-behaved guinea pig.
68. A badger sitting atop his head.
69. An actual, live woodchuck.
70. A dishrag that on closer inspection is alive with maggots
71. It may look like a dead gerbil, but it actually advertises both his vanity (hence, his humanness) and his imperviousness to ridicule. It would qualify as the most original Washington haircut since Ronald Reagan went prematurely orange.
72. A dead, furry lobster.
73. Diffused, unsavory salmon.
74. Artless.
75. Banjo strings.
76. That thing.
77. That construction.
78. That curious thatch, which he wears longer than most men of his generation who are not in a 70s revival band.
79. A small straw hut.
80. Wisps of insulation material.
81. Best left to an architectural critic.
82. A face on the top of his head. A twin, all but absorbed in the womb. The eyes move. The lips quiver.
83. Buttery-fluffed.
84. Souffle’d.
85. Miraculous, restorative-powered.
86. Epic and luxuriant mop.
87. Billowing golden pompadour.
88. Weird piece of Velcro.
89. Strange phenomenon.
90. A glowing orb presiding over the night’s spectacle.
91. A creation consisting of two different parts, like an Ikea shelf.
92. A comb-over from hell.
93. The new wave of comb-overs, (which) drops the lie and the shame and just asks onlookers to marvel at the scale, vision and depth of the comb-over you’ve just created.
94. The grotesque, exhibitionist, peacocky mutation that adorns his skull.
95. The Trump Crosshatch (TM).
96. A mound of cotton candy.
97. A bridal-level updo.
98. A blow-dried confection.
99. An interdimensional, gravity-warping vortex.
100. “Hair

#53 Bond Junkie on 06.06.16 at 8:07 pm

Bigtowne, you’re a funny guy.. drawing parallels between Mr. Dressup and U.S politics now I’ve seen everything.

Not sure I feel the same about your Vaughn/Thornhill call vs 416. Appreciation in the core has been nothing short of explosive.

I mean… There’s obviously the hijinx that occurs at the end of Pine Valley Dr. but we both know that’s completely out of touch with reality. Mafioso and construction magnates (pretty well one and the same) so you can’t use that as your benchmark!

BJ

#54 Cdn Gov will do nothing... on 06.06.16 at 8:07 pm

If it is true RE and its associated sectors are carrying the GDP of this country in what would otherwise be a recession, does anybody seriously think the Cdn Gov will do anything to threaten that?

Plunge Canada into a serious recession? That would be suicidal, not even T2 is that dumb.

#55 palebird on 06.06.16 at 8:09 pm

“#20 The Brexit will be a disaster. A Trump presidency will be a disaster.”
Brexit would be the best thing that happened to Britain in a long time. Unless the vote is rigged they will exit. Then France and Germany can duke it out. France is a basketcase as is the EU. Good luck, my bets are against the Euro.
Trump would be a disaster? What would Hilary be? A raging success? Or any of the bought and paid for stooges? What a farce. It will be hugely entertaining.On top of all that the Dow will be climbing and the USD also. Ha ha get ready for the show.

#56 joblo on 06.06.16 at 8:09 pm

“Given the cyclical nature f this sector, the risk is tilted towards slower construction spending in the upcoming years.”

Freudian slip? maybe not.

Agreed f this sector!

#57 Ole Doberman on 06.06.16 at 8:15 pm

Garth why do you feel trump can’t win, he’s by far the most popular on facebook by likes.

They said he couldn’t will the Republican nomination, and guess what the majority are always wrong!

#58 Neil on 06.06.16 at 8:17 pm

I really hope Garth is right, going to work everyday here in Vancouver and hearing people talk about there houses makes me feel like I’m around a group who put in for a 649 winning ticket and I didn’t chip in that week. I’ve been renting, balanced portfolio and now priced out of ever having a home

#59 Sheane Wallace on 06.06.16 at 8:19 pm

There is no question that stock markets will not be allowed to tank.

But in order to sustain both the housing bubble (the biggest government sponsor bubble in the history of mankind in Canada) and the stock market it would be would be quite an achievement and the CAD would surely take a dive.

How are the prices at your local grocery store lately?

Experiencing the proverbial ‘deflation’ that Mark is delusional about?

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/pricey-produce-prompts-shoppers-snub-certain-fruit-veggies-083420078.html

#60 JP on 06.06.16 at 8:20 pm

2 or 3 more US Fed rate hikes sure to come this year, position yourself accordingly.

#61 Sheane Wallace on 06.06.16 at 8:21 pm

And yes, Trump can actually win, he seems at least the moment far more electable than any other candidates.

It seems the hype with Trump is pretty much the smoke and mirror in the next big magic trick for the masses.

The chance of Trump leading non conventional/non establishment policies is very slim.

#62 Lee on 06.06.16 at 8:26 pm

#42 Tony,

Right. The average sfh in Toronto for $400,000. Dream on.

#63 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 8:28 pm

#40 WillD on 06.06.16 at 7:43 pm
Predicting a rate hike in June or latest July. This is no longer about the “data”. It’s about the Fed trying to raise credibility which is at an all time low. She’s got something to prove. Just like in poker, sometimes you have to play the player, not the cards.
…..

Boy that sounds familiar, I just lost 300k by playing the cards. No one is perfect.
Garth do I get a free Ice Cream when I visit the Forks?

Contracts 300 -304,100
1.2917 100,000.00 38,750,600
1.2816 100,000.00 38,446,500
Ave Buy In 1.2917

#64 Wicked as it seems on 06.06.16 at 8:30 pm

I too hope Britain leaves the EU….30 years ago when they joined it was a different world, the colossal beaurocracy in Brussels was not in place, being told the quotas of millions of economic refugees they can take was not envisioned, not being able to fish on there own banks while looking at foreign fleets out there is crippling…..The UK can get back to what it does best, being the largest island economy in the world!

#65 Blacksheep on 06.06.16 at 8:33 pm

“Most of all, don’t invest for the moment. Or let some insecure, anonymous blowhard on a dodgy, heretical blog run by a bearded guy scare you into selling perfectly good assets when they temporarily decline.”-Garth
———————————
Good to see you come round, Garth….

Even if Van RE dips 30 % from current levels, it wont be long till US driven growth (Fridays job #’s were just a blip) fuels inflation and RE surpasses it’s previous highs, like it always has.

Like you say, gotta think long term, that’s the ticket to true wealth accumulation.

#66 Warren - the lagging indicator on 06.06.16 at 8:37 pm

This is how I know the bubble is about to pop. The smart money AKA the banks know their mortgage writing freebee is about over and are starting to hedge. The leftist in me thinks the banks are doing this because we live in a greedy capitalist society and they know know the jig is up on housing so like selfish wimpy little children they are pretending to care about the Canadian mortgage market and the consumer in the inevitable meltdown. Now that taxpayer subsidized risk mitigation, leading to excess profits, are at an imminent end for the banks. They are preparing to shift blame onto the government and consumer as if to imply a we told you so self exoneration. The question is, are they acting in concert or are they following.
Maybe all this is just crazy lefty talk and the banks are just doing what they are being pressured to do from the government.

So which is it? smarty pants.

#67 slick on 06.06.16 at 8:38 pm

#39 Tax my Capital Gains!
this would put a big dent in the underground economy, as everything would need receipts. As for rentinmg property to yourself, I would assume an arms length clause would be in effect.

Re: Brexit; I wonder if the deluge of mid-east immigrants, and the election of a Muslim mayor in London, have something to do with the likelihood of England exiting the EU. Looking for more grassroots control of the countries policies??
just thinkin’
slick

#68 common sense on 06.06.16 at 8:39 pm

Garth Please:

Janet saying “Rates will rise sometime in the future…”

Please join WAL MARK and just say THE US ECONOMY IS BOOMING…

Elevator going down.

#69 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 8:46 pm

No lie of a joke.

My divorced son #1 making a shit load of loot. Wants to give me thousand a week to save for him for a deposit on a house. I suggest that’s a stupid Idea, Lets take a drive to the Forks of the credit, I will introduce you to someone who shoe polishes his grey beard and a little more sane that your father. Just a bit more.

NO!!!! I don’t wont to be a loser and rent all my life, I want to buy a house. I Need respect. I want it all back July 2017

He has poor self control, a small drinking problem and sort of heart broken, He’s lose with his loot lately and believes I’m good with it

Ha, You would think my 3 trips a week to Seneca Casino would spark a light bulb in his head.

I will save it for him but Garth I’m coming up to the Forks to discus this.

My methods are a rush, they work for me. My son to emotional for Forex. But more importantly he attracts bad luck. He needs diversification.

#70 Doug in London on 06.06.16 at 8:50 pm

So the events unfolding in the coming weeks could shake up markets you say? Wow, if it happens in the near future (as in during the warmer weather) I’ll probably thing I’m in Australia, mate. Why? Because there could be Boxing Week sales in the summer! I’ll celebrate with a few imported Australian beers while cooking dinner on the barby.

#71 Love My Kia on 06.06.16 at 8:51 pm

I’m just sitting here biding my time, content to keep licking my gold…………

#72 Contrarian Coyote on 06.06.16 at 8:53 pm

#42 Tony on 06.06.16 at 7:52 pm
A house in Ottawa is a big risk that will probably fall 40 percent in value since Peterborough is a 40 percent discount to Ottawa and is closer to Toronto. When it all implodes the fringe cities will drop 10 percent and the major cities will drop 70 percent. Condos, apartments and townhouses will drop 80 percent. The same thing happened in America and real estate is double topping down there.

Yeah, the prices in Peterpatch have been nuts the past year or so. It still seems a mix of people cashing out from Toronto and locals getting cheap mortgages. Happily renting and slowly saving.

#73 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 8:55 pm

#56 Ole Doberman on 06.06.16 at 8:15 pm
Garth why do you feel trump can’t win, he’s by far the most popular on facebook by likes.

They said he couldn’t will the Republican nomination, and guess what the majority are always wrong!
…………

When It comes to Herdononics why you asking Gartho?.

#74 NewWorldParty.org on 06.06.16 at 8:58 pm

No need to worry about Trump. There is no way he will win. 59% of White Americans voted for Romney. At best, 52% of Whites support Trump. White Americans have been declining in population for 50 years and are expected to become a minority in 30 years. If the trend of immigration and birth rates continue, they will disappear in another 80 years. America will be owned and run by Hispanics and Blacks, with Muslims and Asians as minorities. Republicans will never be able to win the White House.

White Brits have become a minority in London as well, and are expected to become a minority in Britain in 44 years. Whites have gone from 90% to 46% in 34 years in Toronto and Vancouver. If the trend continues, they will become 2% in another 34 years.

#75 Squad on 06.06.16 at 9:01 pm

Re. the U.K. Referendum. An interesting documentary.

https://www.brexitthemovie.com/

https://www.brexitthemovie.com/

#76 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 06.06.16 at 9:04 pm

#20 Mocha on 06.06.16 at 6:49 pm

Great point. Brexit could be good and Garth is likely correct to say it may present a great buying opportunity.

38K new jobs and down from 5 to 4.7% unemployment.

The good news is that if the trend continues in the US, we could be at zero unemployment by the end of the year! All we need is even weaker numbers and revisions.

#77 Dan Duran on 06.06.16 at 9:06 pm

Charts are fine and all, but there’s always that one time when it’s different. When overbought markets get more and more overbought. We are living through such a time. Every bull market that ever existed was ended by one of two things (or both): rising borrowing rates and government (over) regulation (including taxes).
They could, of course, end naturally, but usually the central banks and the government find it necessary to jump the gun, on the assumption that a recession would be better (shallower) sooner rather than later. Not the case now, when uncertainty around the world is so high that 1. should tie the government hands and 2. should see continued inflow of foreign money into safe countries. In time, these things may change. Until then, we watch in wonder.

PS you can still buy a detached house in Toronto for 600k and a 2 bdrm condo for 200k. Even less if you go to a neighborhood I wouldn’t want to go at night, so I’m not even mentioning those.

#78 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 9:14 pm

Shirley Valentine

I don’t mean to be disrespectful but I’m a no go.

No matter how hot and skilled you are its not going to happen no matter how much I look down and scream. “Bastard do not embarrass me again.”

How would you like a Handsome young broken hearted 30 year old who has been rejected by his fortune hunting 3rd wave feminist bitch.

Yeah she got him but not me. The vault was shut the second I meat her. Whole reason I faked poverty.

Best I can do babe.

#79 Terry on 06.06.16 at 9:15 pm

A bit presumptuous on your part to be saying “Trump can’t win” don’t you think Garth?
In reality Trump is further ahead than even the pollsters want to admit. You all better get used to a Trump presidency………..it’s coming!

Go Trump!

#80 Mark M. on 06.06.16 at 9:22 pm

#60 – JP – “2 or 3 more US Fed rate hikes sure to come this year, position yourself accordingly.”

Not even a remote possibility of this. June is out, by July, that will be out. No moves during the campaign, and by December the Fed moves back to 0. Position yourself accordingly.

#81 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 9:24 pm

From Zero Guy

Hispanic Congressman Tears Into Trump: “You’re A Racist, Take Your Border Wall And Shove It Up Your Ass”
…………………………….

Yeah a racist, what an ass hole.

The labor market is driven by supply and demand.
You flood it with cheap illegal supply of labor you never get demand. Hence no wage growth, hence no FED spike.

Yet they spin in it as racist.

If that’s the case I’m a racist too.

Cavet Empour found a JD in the back yard.

#82 conan on 06.06.16 at 9:28 pm

Inflation loving real return bonds……………… put down the bong……. this is only true if the bond is going to be held for decades.
Short term holding of this investment will kill you if interest rates rise….

I also think you have to report income and losses on these instruments annually. Should be in an rsp only.

Not for the faint of heart. Not for short term holding if you think rates are going up….

Danger Will Robinson,,,,

#83 BobC on 06.06.16 at 9:32 pm

The only thing that concerns me about our election down here is knowing one of them will win.

#84 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 9:39 pm

DELETED

#85 Capt. Serious on 06.06.16 at 9:42 pm

#43 Tony A house in Ottawa is a big risk that will probably fall 40 percent in value

I wouldn’t bet on this. Ottawa prices have been relatively flat the past 5 years. Most of the run up in prices happened pre 2010. If you don’t mind commuting you can still find SFD houses at less than $400k. Prices are kind of stupid in select neighbourhoods, but you don’t have to live in one. Slow melty soppy spongy prices decaying over years seems like a more likely outcome to me.

#86 Fakeologist on 06.06.16 at 9:42 pm

G,
You go on about how the US job numbers get better and better. That’s according to their Ministry of Truth. What say you of what could be more accurate numbers at shadowstats.com, saying the real US number is more like 22% since 2010? http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

#87 Andrew Woburn on 06.06.16 at 9:56 pm

I already realized we have moved into a two-tier job economy but I didn’t realize we have been adding a third-world layer. This news from booming BC:

” ‘Starfish’ backpacks help children left hungry, dreading weekends”

“However, some children in Vernon were approaching each weekend with apprehension and dread because they were going hungry, for days, without the school-provided lunches of the weekday.

I see it all the time and it’s heartbreaking and it’s wrong
– Dr. Carmen Larsen

“It’s hard to believe but we really are talking about children who have no food at home,” she said.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/starfish-packs-hungry-kids-food-donation-vernon-1.3614397

#88 conan on 06.06.16 at 9:57 pm

If the banks have started lobbying the government for a 10 percent down payment, then one can assume they are expecting at least that amount as a correction in the near future.

Sell ….Sell ……Sell

#89 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.06.16 at 10:04 pm

trump won’t win

deflation was never a concern. central banks around the world had helicopters

US at full employment. rates to rise.

canadian economy going down the tubes as exports die

simple

#90 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 10:09 pm

The Funk

Last one got sucked in

Here is the real one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9vhXd5JpVQ

Nictonites are real

#91 Grey Dog on 06.06.16 at 10:09 pm

Reading the 100 descriptions of Trumps Hair…takes me to 1960s the musical play “Hair” …now the title song Hair would be a great song for the Donald to adopt as HIS campaign song, and now I have THAT ear worm for the rest of the night.

#92 MF on 06.06.16 at 10:10 pm

Trump is just the beginning.

As “progressives” continue to destroy the western world with their idiotic policies, more and more people are waking up. Debt, zirp/nirp, BS “climate change” taxes and endless stimulus has done nothing for growth at all. How many countries have negative interest rates? Who the hell would buy a government bond with a negative rate?

Politically, this idea that being nice to your enemy will make him stop hating you has been proven a billion times to be false. They just go behind your back and strike you (think Obama Iran deal, and how afterwards the Iranians banned American companies from doing business with Iranian ones or Putin in Ukraine doing what he wants to our ally).

Basically The Americans are looking at the EU failed experiment and saying no. Britain would be smart to leave (although i think they will stay). The refugees were the final straw. They brought what was happening to the forefront and put it on the news. The idea that your globalist leader would allow a million+ “refugees” into your country, and risk destroying everything you have built and fought for strikes a strong nerve with Americans who are naturally patriotic. Obama’s recovery is now seen as a sham and a lie. People believe the US looks weak internationally and it has to stop.

MF

#93 Bigjack on 06.06.16 at 10:16 pm

Trump WILL win.
Hillary hasn’t got a chance in hell against him.
She failed miserably as US secretary of state.
The world needs Trump to win. We cannot afford another Soros whore in charge.

#94 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 10:17 pm

The charter that is holding up my book.

Jeremiah Chew, obviously an Asian, I often refer to him as Yoda on here.

I cant trash talk the little fk no matter how much I try.

You see how much fiction writing is a challenge.

#95 Observer on 06.06.16 at 10:18 pm

Most worrisome, the gap has been consistently growing in recent days, and there’s still two weeks to go.

Brexit fear mongering fomented by Cameron. Switzerland is doing just fine outside the EU.

#96 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 10:23 pm

DELETED

#97 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 10:25 pm

DELETED

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.16 at 10:28 pm

@#84 Smoking Man

Back “at” the JD again are we Smokie?

#99 conan on 06.06.16 at 10:29 pm

#57 Ole Doberman on 06.06.16 at 8:15 pm

” Why can Trump not win” AKA, The Lord Humongous, The warrior of the Wasteland, The Ayatollah of Rock and roll a.

He can not win because the preliminary stuff is all about the 25% of Americans who care about primaries. Once the election happens the other 75% of Americans will put a nail in his coffin.

#100 Boom! on 06.06.16 at 10:30 pm

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter.

Trump COULD win (assuming he gets the nomination) of the republicans.

Never underestimate the vacillation of the FED.

Higher rates will still be coming next year. (Snails move ever so slowly). Of course, long Bull markets eventually tire, and turn into Bear markets for a spell.

As for BREXIT, in my opinion would be a prudent long-term move for them. Despite what the “professionals” eating at the public troughs believe.

As for the U.S. the economy is plodding along, hardly going gangbusters, but moving upwards slowly. Best looking horse in the glue factory is how one wise scribbler put it. Of course, if the rest of the world slips into deflation, and recession we will as well.

As for U.S. politics, one of the unremarkable detestable candidates will win in November. Magically, nothing will change, too much.

M64WI

#101 Offshore on 06.06.16 at 10:31 pm

Hi Garth,

Thanks for the article. Could you please expand further on the buying opportunity in Britain re Brexit?

Are you hypothesizing that the market is going to overplay the Brexit fears and push the market down and create a buying opportunity for the long term index investors?

Thanks
Offshore

#102 acdel on 06.06.16 at 10:36 pm

#75 Squad

Very informative, after watching the movie I know which way I would vote if I were a Brit.

#103 Shirley Valentine on 06.06.16 at 10:47 pm

#78 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 9:14 pm

Shirley Valentine

I don’t mean to be disrespectful but I’m a no go.

No matter how hot and skilled you are its not going to happen no matter how much I look down and scream. “Bastard do not embarrass me again.”

How would you like a Handsome young broken hearted 30 year old who has been rejected by his fortune hunting 3rd wave feminist bitch.

Yeah she got him but not me. The vault was shut the second I meat her. Whole reason I faked poverty.

Best I can do babe.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I see, I see. A gracious offer of a young one…..Blue pills can be dangerous to the heart!

That post was nearly perfect English!.. Except for the “meat” part…..

Did the heart broken son type this ?! Hmmm.. So he is good for 4k a month!! PARTY ON.. Buy a house at 30.. Is he nuts!

Can he pilot a spaceship? Some studly genes must have been passed along.. hmm .. the difficulty with young ones…. is quickness……lacking the experience of elder alien beasts.

#104 Get on the Hair Train on 06.06.16 at 11:01 pm

Let’s all sing it together… 1,2, 3….

Give me a head with hair, long beautiful hair
Shining, gleaming, streaming, flaxen, waxen
Give me down to there, hair, shoulder length or longer
Here baby, there, momma, everywhere, daddy, daddy

Hair, flow it, show it
Long as God can grow it, my hair

Let it fly in the breeze and get caught in the trees
Give a home to the fleas, in my hair
A home for fleas, a hive for the buzzing bees
A nest for birds, there ain’t no words
For the beauty, splendor, the wonder of my hair

Flow it, show it
Long as God can grow it, my hair

#105 Bottoms_Up on 06.06.16 at 11:02 pm

#92 MF on 06.06.16 at 10:10 pm
————————————
Sorry, climate change is not partisan. A scorched earth doesn’t care if you vote left or right.

#106 CMHC a house of cards on 06.06.16 at 11:08 pm

#66 Warren – the lagging indicator

I was thinking the same thing. It’s was surprising to hear a banker on TV say that affordability with low interest was manageable in the past but now you can’t say that anymore. They all know it’s a house of cards. They all know there is no Chinese boogie money but they just imply that to distract the masses from the real cause of the housing bubble CMHC. Every self-serving realtor who posts here all know it’s easy loose credit that’s now out of hand. Garth is right to call peak house last week.

#107 Josh in Calgary on 06.06.16 at 11:15 pm

So with Brexit coming down the tracks is it worth stepping out of the way on Europe weighted ETFs for a month or so?

#108 DON on 06.06.16 at 11:18 pm

#54 Cdn Gov will do nothing… on 06.06.16 at 8:07 pm

If it is true RE and its associated sectors are carrying the GDP of this country in what would otherwise be a recession, does anybody seriously think the Cdn Gov will do anything to threaten that?

Plunge Canada into a serious recession? That would be suicidal, not even T2 is that dumb.

##########################

In politics – Always better to due something unpopular things in the first term…healthier to prick the bubble than to let it fester to the point where it harms the economy even more.

#109 conan on 06.06.16 at 11:18 pm

Re: #90 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 10:09 pm

You linked to a Nicki Minaj video????????

” Beam Smoking Man up Scotty”

#110 DON on 06.06.16 at 11:27 pm

#77 Dan Duran on 06.06.16 at 9:06 pm

Charts are fine and all, but there’s always that one time when it’s different. When overbought markets get more and more overbought. We are living through such a time. Every bull market that ever existed was ended by one of two things (or both): rising borrowing rates and government (over) regulation (including taxes).
They could, of course, end naturally, but usually the central banks and the government find it necessary to jump the gun, on the assumption that a recession would be better

**********************
How did the US housing crash happen? Why could they not prevent it? What exactly did they do about it when the disaster confronted them? Things to think about. The biggest economy is the world couldn’t save the housing market. But we are different…some of us more so than others.

#111 Linda on 06.06.16 at 11:33 pm

‘Trump can’t win’. I sincerely hope this prediction is correct. My main concern with Mr. Trump is that he seems to act first & think later. The problem is that if he is president, he might act by pushing the big nuclear button & think ‘maybe I shouldn’t have done that’ when it is too late to put that big old genie back in the bottle.

Brexit. Well, the United Kingdom does seem to like having their affairs kept separate from all those foreigners. So maybe, though walking away from such a huge trading bloc might be going a tad too far in the isolationist direction. There are as I understand it concerns that the price of being in the EU is more than the benefit of belonging to the EU. We do live in interesting times.

#112 BS on 06.06.16 at 11:38 pm

More insanity:

“Vancouver parents buy property for young children to secure a future foothold”

Skinner said it’s common for her clients to help their adult children with either a gift or a loan of between $200,000 to $500,000 to help with buying a home

But not just the adult kids get houses:

buying property for young children is a new phenomenon, Skinner said. So far this year, Skinner has assisted around six clients set up the arrangement. The process usually involves creating a holding company for the investment and renting the property out until the child becomes an adult.

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/6/vancouver-parents-buy-property-young-children-secu/

Talk about borrowing from future demand. This will be the mother of all housing crashes that will take 2 generations to recover.

#113 Can't stop laughing on 06.06.16 at 11:51 pm

Published in Business Vancouver today. I like the last paragraph.
====================================
The bank of mom and dad has skipped a generation, with parents now buying houses or condos for their school-aged children or grandchildren. Nervous upper-middle-class homeowners are hoping that the strategy will help younger generations gain a foothold in Vancouver.

“At the rate things are going people are afraid,” said Kristine Skinner, a financial adviser with North Vancouver-based credit union BlueShore Financial, referring to recent rapid price gains in residential real estate.

“I have people coming to me, saying, ‘Are my children or my grandchildren going to be able to afford a home when they’re an adult?’” Skinner said. “They’re actually buying revenue properties today with the intent that the values will appreciate and those properties will be transferred to their children as adults.”

According to a 2015 survey by private mortgage insurer Genworth Canada, 40% of first-time homebuyers in Vancouver had help from their parents, compared to 22% in the rest of Canada.

Skinner said it’s common for her clients to help their adult children with either a gift or a loan of between $200,000 to $500,000 to help with buying a home, often in the same neighbourhood.

Single-family homes in West Vancouver have seen rapid price appreciations over the past year and some values have risen by several million dollars in just a few months. Jason Soprovich, a realtor with Royal LePage who specializes in high-end West Vancouver properties, said he sees homeowners downsizing and then setting aside some of the money from the sale of the home for their children. Families are often motivated to help the children live near the parents, and Soprovich said new condo buildings in the Lower Lonsdale area of North Vancouver have been a popular property choice for parents helping children to get into the market.

BlueShore Financial has recently rebranded to emphasize its services for wealth planning in order to capture the changing demographics of North and West Vancouver. Skinner said the parents making the gift are often motivated by the desire to be close to young grandchildren and provide the same lifestyle they themselves have enjoyed.

However, buying property for young children is a new phenomenon, Skinner said. So far this year, Skinner has assisted around six clients set up the arrangement. The process usually involves creating a holding company for the investment and renting the property out until the child becomes an adult. Typically, families making this kind of an investment have an annual income of at least $200,000, and their net wealth, including existing real estate, ranges from $4 million to $10 million.

“I had a young family with two children, aged 10 and 13, and they bought two condos, one for each child down the road,” Skinner said.

People are buying both houses and condos with the intent of giving them to their children in the future, Skinner said, although property prices in West Vancouver are leading the parents Skinner has worked with to look to North Vancouver and Vancouver for the properties.

However, Skinner warned that parents who help children with a pre-inheritance need to be careful to keep everything fair if there is more than one child in the family. Unequal assistance to one child and not the other almost always causes family disputes in the future, she said.

#114 BS on 06.07.16 at 12:01 am

Trump will be good for economy, bad for Wall Street: David Rosenberg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBUme63rfo&feature=youtu.be

#115 young money on 06.07.16 at 12:04 am

I think if I don’t buy that house she will leave me for someone that will. So I’m caving and buying.

Women are wired to have their own house.

Their boomer parents have provided them with their own place all these years. And if this is all they know, then they won’t take anything less. It’s almost an insult to them if you don’t buy.

#116 Blacksheep on 06.07.16 at 12:58 am

Terry # 79,

“A bit presumptuous on your part to be saying “Trump can’t win” don’t you think Garth?
In reality Trump is further ahead than even the pollsters want to admit.”

“You all better get used to a Trump presidency………..it’s coming!”

“Go Trump!”
—————————————
Silly lad, US style democracy is an illusion by design.

The system will decide the next pres, via the electoral college.

Can’t leave such important decisions to the Cattle.

And Garth of course knows this.

#117 Smartalox on 06.07.16 at 1:04 am

A friend of mine is a Realtor with too much time on her hands, posted a link to this Business in Vancouver article:

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/6/vancouver-parents-buy-property-young-children-secu/?utm_source=BIV

Now it’s not just parents buying Real Estate for their children, but grandparents buying RE for their grandchildren. ‘Investment’ properties.

According to the article, parents and grandparents are fear that their progeny will never be able to live in the same neighbourhoods where they raised their families, so they’re (allegedly) using the equity in their RE, to buy condos for children and grandchildren. Use HELOCs to get the down payments, then rent the properties to cover the mortgages. When Junior is old enough, boom! Free, paid up condo, close to home.

No mention in the article of any alternative strategies, like sinking the equivalent of a condo down payment into a growth-oriented trust fund, which could grow from $50k to $160k in 20 years; no mention of contributing to Junior’s RESPs, nothing.

No mention of the tax implications of property inheritance, or the fact that 20 years after purchase, junior would take possession just in time to be hit with a special assessment for major renovations.

Good Luck!

#118 diharv on 06.07.16 at 1:12 am

Trump can’t win ? Don’t be so sure about that . I know and am related to alot of staunch republicans down thereand they hate Obama just as sure as they hated Clinton and Kennedy . I may not agree with them but they are convinced that Obama has ruined America . Clinton will just bring more of the same bowing to the moneyed lobbyists so I think that the callous blunderbus has a shot . ALOT of people don’t like the man but he is saying alot of the right things in between the times when his foot is in his mouth.

#119 macroman on 06.07.16 at 1:40 am

Bullion licker, he he, proud to be one Garth. Thinking of trading my handle, I like it.

A lot better than you window lickers that think the US is raising. Could Janet put out a more lamo statement?

The only way Trump isn’t Prez after Bernie bygone is if the Clintons make him room temperature.

Just ask Vinnie…

SMHT02/17

#120 macroman on 06.07.16 at 1:55 am

So Boom, #30, inquiring minds want to know…did you break the Caddy passenger seat on the Bust?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ne3XojNonEU

#121 Nancy Drew on 06.07.16 at 2:20 am

I disagree that the US economy is stable only because of the farcical attempts of Obama to make it seem so using the full force of the USG. Obama has doubled the size of the debt in a few years. When all that debt has to be paid for Obama will be on his ‘legacy tour’. There is no real economy in the US that isn’t being artificially propped up by the ongoing QE out of the WH.

As far as Trump being a loon and Hillary a savior? That’s just crazy media spin. Trump is making sense, Hillary a proven liar. Americans are a lot more savvy this time around. I wouldn’t think they’ll be fooled again.

I want to see Trump president to see Justin and Sophie cowering behind all the bad things they said about him. Actually I wish Ted Cruz would have been able to get hold of Junior in a public debate, now that would have been a bloodletting our feeble minded Trudeau would have never survived.

#122 jane 24 on 06.07.16 at 3:10 am

Yes indeed we returned last weekend from 2 weeks in Canada to find that our fellow Brits are sick to death about being instructed to vote Remain in the UK Referendum by most of the govt, the IMF, most of the global banks, the US President and the German Chancellor. In fact the Remain side would be better to shut-up at this point as every pronouncement of economic doom they make just drives the Leave vote up.

Our choice seems to be a better economy on the Remain side and personal freedom and democracy on the Leave side. No contest. I and every one I know are voting for Leave.

Unfortunately the EU, being profoundly undemocratic, have a history of making countries like ours keep voting until we vote the ‘right’ way. This will not be a fast decision.

#123 Tony on 06.07.16 at 3:58 am

Re: #18 Brian on 06.06.16 at 6:42 pm

Very simple just look to the past real estate crash in America. The same thing will happen here. Texas, Indiana, Kansas and all those small cities fell about 10 percent while major cities like Fort. Myers and Stockton fell 70 percent.

#124 jay on 06.07.16 at 6:40 am

Garth ,now they’re buying home’s for their kid’s while they’re in grade school.Might as well buy them a buy them a cottage as well. https://www.biv.com/article/2016/6/vancouver-parents-buy-property-young-children-secu/

#125 Ace Goodheart on 06.07.16 at 6:47 am

Re: ” But it turns out UK locals are in a mood – just like Trump and Sanders-loving US locals – and whatever the Establishment tells them to do is opposite to what they will.”

– never underestimate the will power of a truly p’ssed off population. Europe has become this boiling cauldron of angry, disillusioned people who are not going to “behave”.

Remember “Boaty McBoatface”.

#126 maxx on 06.07.16 at 7:50 am

#19 TRT on 06.06.16 at 6:47 pm

“Hope Brexit happens.”

Me too. Britain is and will be better off without the collective of fiscal morons on the continent. Endlessly wasteful, misguided diddlers who’ve completely lost true north. Draghi is frightening in the extreme. A billion “G-series” meetings won’t change a thing.

Getting flashes of the Costa Concordia……..

“Establishment is scared these days. But some countries citizens are waking up.”

Yes, that’s what happens as people become less and less comfortable (“austerity”) and increasingly feel that they are getting less and less for their contributions (higher taxes).

Malvision and mismanagement by tptb simply cause disenfranchised citizens to vote for change – any change at all and damn the consequences.

Does not promote global stability nor by extension, economic growth of the healthy sort.

Quite the opposite.

#127 JT on 06.07.16 at 7:53 am

if we sell more and more houses and fries to each other we can boost productivity. keep digging, we need to get out of this hole.

#128 JT on 06.07.16 at 7:55 am

Excuse me now, I need to rest up before the next session of parliament. Or is that the next bout of parliament? Or is that the next bout in parliament?

#129 Doomer Proctologist on 06.07.16 at 7:58 am

Not so fast, Garth. Yellen continues to hedge her bets. She knows the trouble ahead grows darker.

As for that other matter, I have now completed the colorectal exams for Brad Lamb and Bandit. You’re next, Garth.

If you don’t mind, I’ll just use the same glove. I hate adding to landfills with unnecessary plastic waste.

#130 maxx on 06.07.16 at 8:02 am

#31 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 7:18 pm

“People are feed up with progressive bull shit.
And the revolt is coming to ontario politics in two more years.”

It had better, because Ontario is circling the toilet bowl. We had considered moving there, but with the current crop of wasteful, clueless idiots at the helm that idea is moot.

So tired of subsidizing fiscal farts.

#131 Whatever on 06.07.16 at 8:09 am

Trump is making a secret appearance at the Bilderberg Conference this weekend.

The final electoral decision will be made there.

Period

#132 fancy_pants on 06.07.16 at 8:12 am

who could have possibly seen this coming… wink wink

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/06/06/yellen-weak-jobs-report-concerning/85482868/

http://www.businessinsider.com/people-fearing-us-recession-2016-6

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/worst-jobs-report-in-nearly-6-years-102-million-working-age-americans-do-not-have-jobs

#133 maxx on 06.07.16 at 8:12 am

#40 Tax my Capital Gains! on 06.06.16 at 7:40 pm

….business model taxation requires annual income.

House produces……..zero income – until sold.

Capital gains on re sales should be taxed to the hilt.

#134 fancy_pants on 06.07.16 at 8:15 am

Trump can’t win. -Garth

Outside the box thinking but maybe they are all on the same team, the facade is that they appear not to be. Common goal would be submission and servitude of the masses for the elect.

This blog is getting scary again. — Garth

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.16 at 8:25 am

@#122 jane 24

“Our choice seems to be a better economy on the Remain side and personal freedom and democracy on the Leave side. No contest. I and every one I know are voting for Leave. …..”
********************************************

Britain. It was nice knowing ye………

Now about all those post Imperial flags we’re gonna have to change……who do we send the bill to?

#136 Smoking Man on 06.07.16 at 8:26 am

Scott Adams – the creator of the long-lived comic strip series “Dilbert” – says he’s endorsing Democrat Hillary Clinton for president due to the possibility he may be assassinated if he supports Republican Donald Trump.
………………

Brown shirts. Don’t blame him. Like I said Trump in a land slide. Facing the camera it’s all Clinton, In the voting booth, TRUMP !!!!!!!!!

#137 NoName on 06.07.16 at 8:30 am

@MF

As “progressives” continue to destroy the western world with their idiotic policies, more and more people are waking up.
——
You sound just like Blen Geck…
https://youtu.be/Wdw0T5Q66tc

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.07.16 at 8:32 am

Hey!
If Britain leaves the EU and then Scotland and Wales leave Britain and then Britains’ flag becomes a quaint anachronism and all those countries and Provinces around the world that have a “British themed” flag decide to change there’s….
That means British Columbia will be looking for fresh ideas right? Right?

I need ideas people.
I have a few …..
A tattoo’ed arm raised in a fist superimposed on a setting sun with a latin logo “The best place on earth for foreign investment”

Waddya think?

#139 Andrewt on 06.07.16 at 8:35 am

Trump will not win. The republicans have accepted this and are trying to show unity in the hopes the losses don’t spread to the house and the senate. If they can stay in charge of congress they can continue to obstruct the Democrats’ agenda and work on slowly losing their reliance on the bigoted, angry white demographic and set up a better candidate in 2020.

#140 james on 06.07.16 at 9:34 am

#94 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 10:17 pm
The charter that is holding up my book.
Jeremiah Chew, obviously an Asian, I often refer to him as Yoda on here.
I cant trash talk the little fk no matter how much I try.
You see how much fiction writing is a challenge.
……………………………………………………………..
What charter was holding you up? the charter of rights?
A charter is a written grant by a country’s legislative or sovereign power, by which an institution such as a company, college, or city is created and its rights and privileges defined.
Is this connected to your defunked Smoking Man PhD in Herdenomics? No wonder Donald Trump has you on his team, you attended Trump U.

#141 james on 06.07.16 at 9:39 am

#125 Ace Goodheart on 06.07.16 at 6:47 am

Re: ” But it turns out UK locals are in a mood – just like Trump and Sanders-loving US locals – and whatever the Establishment tells them to do is opposite to what they will.”

– never underestimate the will power of a truly p’ssed off population. Europe has become this boiling cauldron of angry, disillusioned people who are not going to “behave”.

Remember “Boaty McBoatface”.
————————————————–
Yes 100% correct it happened here in the Great White North! Oh shit am I allowed to say that without sounding like a racist?
Re do- (The Great blank sheet of paper North) there now I haven’t offended anyone.

#142 Cloom on 06.07.16 at 9:46 am

Hillary killed Gadhafi. I liked Gadhafi because he opposed the Libya beheadies.

#143 Need Depends on 06.07.16 at 9:47 am

#73 Smoking Man on 06.06.16 at 8:55 pm

#56 Ole Doberman on 06.06.16 at 8:15 pm
Garth why do you feel trump can’t win, he’s by far the most popular on facebook by likes.

They said he couldn’t will the Republican nomination, and guess what the majority are always wrong!
…………………………
When It comes to Herdononics why you asking Gartho?.
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
He had a Senior Moment after pondering his life without the old hag and lusting for Shirley Valentine. Shirley said his “Bloom is off the rose”. Now he lost his money now he lost his balls.

#144 Noel on 06.07.16 at 10:05 am

When I commented a few weeks ago that there was no chance of a June hike because of the Brexit vote you accused me of being a real estate pumper.

You are. — Garth

#145 S1 Duplex Drive on 06.07.16 at 10:23 am

Garth –

The fact that British voters aren’t doing as they’ve been instructed by their betters – Cameron, Carney et al – is further evidence that the old liberal political order is fading in the Western democracies. Voters are fed up! Recently Mr. Obama said that western leaders are ‘rattled’ by Donald Trump – well, of course they are. He represents a major threat to the cozy political order in the west, one that could spread elsewhere and, given what you wrote about Great Britain, has already migrated offshore from America.

Where will this end up? To quote you: ‘Beats me’. But I certainly wouldn’t write off Mr. Trump just yet. Your dismissal of him and his followers is, I believe, mistaken.

I merely stated he can’t win. Unless he wins over women, Hispanics & Millennials, he can’t. — Garth

#146 Doug in London on 06.07.16 at 10:45 am

Are there any ETFs that invest only in British companies? If so, they could go on sale if they aren’t already. The sale would be compounded by the cheaper British Pound these days.

#147 james on 06.07.16 at 10:54 am

Trump can’t win. But the journey from now to November could be wild on the markets.
…………………………………………………..
Be careful how you prophesize Garth, we’ve been down this road before and look what we are stuck with now.

A Tory harvest
September 24th, 2015 — Book Updates
____________________________________
There will be a majority Conservative government on the morning of Tuesday, October 20th, led by a man most Canadians hate. So much for being a normal country.
Here are the final party standings of the GreaterFool poll of over 7,000 readers:
Cons 45.5%, Libs 25.0%, NDP 19.3%, Greens 10.2%.

Nice try. That was a poll of your votes. — Garth

#148 WUL on 06.07.16 at 10:59 am

It is refreshing to wake up to news that Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment is now achieving playoff success with its money. The $1,000,000 it is paying Kessel will see him hoist the Cup.

#149 Noel on 06.07.16 at 10:59 am

When I commented a few weeks ago that there was no chance of a June hike because of the Brexit vote you accused me of being a real estate pumper.

You are. — Garth

________________________

Not really. I think low interest rates in the developed world, say, sub-4% are here for the forseeable future. It really is different this time.

Combine that with steady immigration to Vancouver and Toronto (something around 60% of immigrants to Canada settle in those 2 cities), limited land supply, and huge amounts of capital leaving China and you’ve got a recipe for steady house price appreciation for decades to come.

Its not pumping, its looking at the situation with a longer lens and disagreeing with your take that people are irrational, greedy and stupid.

#150 Ace Goodheart on 06.07.16 at 11:08 am

RE: #141 James:

Here is what folks in the UK currently think of their government’s decision making:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boaty-mcboatface-storms-victory-public-7775767

#151 Shel Long on 06.07.16 at 11:08 am

Not many are following Swedens theft of savers cash. Can this happen in Canada under the Trudeau Liberal dictatorship?

http://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-cashless-society-negative-interest-rates-2015-10

#152 james on 06.07.16 at 11:09 am

#139 Andrewt on 06.07.16 at 8:35 am

Trump will not win. The republicans have accepted this and are trying to show unity in the hopes the losses don’t spread to the house and the senate. If they can stay in charge of congress they can continue to obstruct the Democrats’ agenda and work on slowly losing their reliance on the bigoted, angry white demographic and set up a better candidate in 2020.
———————————————–
Trump has most of middle class, ex working class, low income, disenfranchised, unemployed, low brow and bigoted persons at his beckoned call. They are desperate to get the present leader ousted. They blame President Obama for the last 30 years of economic failure in the US and for its loss of domestic manufacturing. Heres some news people, for those that caint read or rite, you orr jobs isa gone an theys not comin baack! The Trump man caint doit.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/07/donald-trump-why-americans-support

#153 BOOM! on 06.07.16 at 11:27 am

#120 Macroman

That six way power passenger seat is apparently off its track. Need to take it apart and see what’s up. Being the mechanical one armed idiot I am, that will be interesting.

Were is electrical, not an issue, but mechanical?? To this day, I can not look at a fastener and accurately estimate the size (sigh). There are those who are mechanical whizzes, then there is me…

By the way, the wife has pearls. Rarely ever wears them.

Hmmm. Market offering some interesting movements today!

#154 salonist on 06.07.16 at 11:32 am

I merely stated he can’t win. Unless he wins over women, Hispanics & Millennials, he can’t. — Garth

bernie wil run… a given
cruz, who never left will run

regardless, garth will be the us ambassador from Canada come november

#155 Scott Cordier on 06.07.16 at 12:51 pm

Canada 30 year bond is 1.87%. When it was that low. During the Great Depression is probably right.

#156 Shortymac on 06.07.16 at 12:56 pm

@18 Brian – http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/06/06/funk/#comment-452721

I feel the same way, I was touring Innisfil this weekend and was shocked at the prices, they have increased dramatically during the past year in the lower, non-waterfront properties.

3 new developments have driven up the prices, one has townhomes going for 450k! This has only proven that we’re in a bubble, a lot of toronto money went up that way.

My biggest problem is the developments are advertizing a GO train station that is going to be built “soon”. It’s false advertising, the GO website has stated that the town doesn’t have enough population to sustain a station there. I doubt one is going to be built in the next 15 years, if at all.

I do think the prices will drop but not as drastically.

#157 WUL on 06.07.16 at 1:07 pm

The last thing a sane person would do is pay heed to any of my market calls.

However, on May 3, moments before I evacuated this penny ante village in the Taiga of NE Alberta, I threw a dart that banked off the pinball machine and pool table to hit a triple 20 (as the FLOPSTER would say).

I said go long oil mui pronto with 40% of oil sands production shut in. WTI up 14.75% over the ensuing 35 days.

The great thing about investing in oil is that Big Oil, the White House, the CIA and the MIC have your back (Nigeria, Venezuala etc.)

The frackers may be mobilizing rigs soon.

#158 Get on the hair train on 06.07.16 at 1:17 pm

The bilderberg folks will be determining Trump’s and Brexit’s future this weekend

http://www.infowars.com/bilderberg-2016-to-talk-trump-riots-migrants-brexit/

#159 Luc on 06.07.16 at 1:36 pm

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/feds-pricing-out-a-generation-with-home-buyer-crackdown-1.2934938

#160 salonist on 06.07.16 at 1:41 pm

carney who has experience in generating a national revenue stream,now in the uk

oops, he’s done it again

A third of middle class people would not be able to pay an unexpected £500 bill because of the squeeze on wages and rising living costs

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3628832/A-middle-class-people-not-able-pay-unexpected-500-bill-squeeze-wages-rising-living-costs.html#ixzz4AurjOg3c
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

#161 Dan on 06.07.16 at 1:46 pm

If Truman great nukeman could be president, if Regan bad actor and conqueror of Grenada could be president…
Why not Trump? People are envious because he enjoy with models…..If P2 could be Prime Minister….
Killary is much worst choice, she will feed military and steer trouble at many points of the world

#162 james on 06.07.16 at 1:50 pm

#147 james on 06.07.16 at 10:54 am

Trump can’t win. But the journey from now to November could be wild on the markets.
…………………………………………………..
Be careful how you prophesize Garth, we’ve been down this road before and look what we are stuck with now.

A Tory harvest
September 24th, 2015 — Book Updates
____________________________________
There will be a majority Conservative government on the morning of Tuesday, October 20th, led by a man most Canadians hate. So much for being a normal country.
Here are the final party standings of the GreaterFool poll of over 7,000 readers:
Cons 45.5%, Libs 25.0%, NDP 19.3%, Greens 10.2%.

Nice try. That was a poll of your votes. — Garth
——————————————————-
Garth you are 110% correct, I was not implying that you were the authoritative voice of the vote just the architect. We the people that voted are either idiots, ill informed or lackadaisical when it comes to poll time. However Garth when it comes to this Trump guy don’t call it a day until the sun sets.

#163 Bottoms_Up on 06.07.16 at 2:08 pm

I merely stated he can’t win. Unless he wins over women, Hispanics & Millennials, he can’t. — Garth
——————————————————–
I agree 100% and no amount of Hilary attacking will win these groups over. But watch him soften his stance on ‘his issues’ over the next 5 months…bait and switch

#164 doom on 06.07.16 at 2:27 pm

Please heed this warning. We are approaching economic conditions that will enfold just as Venezuela is experiencing. The worst times that any of us have ever seen are right at the door, and yet apathy is everywhere.

Blah, blah, blah. Next time try telling us why. — Garth

#165 Rainclouds on 06.07.16 at 3:00 pm

Pretty obvious the politicians at every level were hoping interest rates would be the catalyst to reign in the gasbag we see in Van/To. None of them want to stick their necks out now. No rate increase till the fall at the earliest.

Clarke, full blinders on and in the back pocket of developers. Tax revenues gushing in, Finance Minister with several rentals. They ain’t gonna touch it.

No idea what is going on in Ontariowe but the teacher seems a tad challenged in the economics thingy.

T2 appears scattered. Morneau realizes by now his half assed attempts didn’t do squat. No doubt he was hoping US rates would already have bumped. Uh oh.

Nobody wants to do the right thing , political cowardice and status quo “leadership” may doom this country for years when this implodes.

And you think this blog is pathetic?

#166 Noel on 06.07.16 at 3:04 pm

Garth is spot on about Trump, there’s no way he can win.

He may be popular, but the electoral college doesn’t work for a run of the mill GOP candidate (Mittens), let alone a hated one.

http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

Even if trump wins all the toss ups, and the lean R states, he still gets trounced.

More in depth:

http://www.npr.org/2016/05/10/477190080/demographics-and-history-tilt-the-map-in-clintons-favor-over-trump

Its over for the GOP until they can stop alienating (pun intended) Latino voters and women.

#167 A box in the Sky on 06.07.16 at 3:19 pm

#122 jane 24 on 06.07.16 at 3:10 am

Our choice seems to be a better economy on the Remain side and personal freedom and democracy on the Leave side. No contest. I and every one I know are voting for Leave.
——————————

You expect more freedom outside of the EU? You really think the English Law & Order / CCTV society is going to be removed if you do brexit? Child please.

Little Englanders are hilarious.

Whether you take order from a Monarch, London or Brussels it doesn’t matter the point is that country will always bend the knee.

With brexit you will just be poorer (while still bending the knee)

#168 jess on 06.07.16 at 3:27 pm

With Connecticut Foundations Crumbling, ‘Your Home Is Now Worthless’

By KRISTIN HUSSEY and LISA W. FODERAROJUNE 7, 2016

been traced to a quarry business and a related concrete maker, which have agreed to stop selling their products for residential use. The stone aggregate used in the concrete mixture has high levels of pyrrhotite, an iron sulfide mineral that can react with oxygen and water to cause swelling and cracking. Over the past 30 years, the quarry has provided concrete for as many as 20,000 houses.,,’

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/08/nyregion/with-connecticut-foundations-crumbling-your-home-is-now-worthless.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

#169 Cici on 06.07.16 at 3:38 pm

Garth can now add Gregor to the list:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/gregor-robertson-luxury-tax-flipping-tax-1.3617636

#170 Donald Trump on 06.07.16 at 3:39 pm

You are all really bad people, oh and by the way your all FIRED. Patent Pending TM Trump Industries Inc.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/06/07/donald-trump-ends-primaries-sour-note/85547108/

#171 acdel on 06.07.16 at 4:26 pm

Interesting.

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/etfs/the-market-share-battle-between-etfs-and-mutual-funds-heating-up-as-canadian-etfs-pass-100-billion-milestone

#172 Ace Goodheart on 06.07.16 at 5:41 pm

RE: “Most of all, don’t invest for the moment. Or let some insecure, anonymous blowhard on a dodgy, heretical blog run by a bearded guy scare you into selling perfectly good assets when they temporarily decline. By the same token, don’t fall for the siren some of the house-pumpers who tell you real estate is benign and will rise without end. While a house in Ottawa or Kamloops may not represent a big risk right now, one in Richmond Hill, or Richmond, surely does.”

Investments in stocks and bonds is just venture capitalism. All you are doing, is funding companies’ expansion efforts. People continue to not “get” that and look for magic formulas, or mathematical methods to figure out if investments will go up or down. Or they invest in mutual funds or the like, where it is not possible to even know what the fund holds or what it is doing.

When a person is putting money into something, be it a house, or a stock, or a bond, or anything else, there has to always be a “bet”. You are betting something is going to happen and you need to have a reason. So if you put money into a stock, you are capitalizing a company……for a reason. Ie, you like what they sell, you figure everyone else does too, and you want them to have more money, to expand and sell more of their stuff.

That’s it. No magic. No illustrious individuals with fancy resumes needed. No mathematical formulas. Just venture capitalism. Paying into stuff you think will be successful.

#173 Smartalox on 06.07.16 at 5:56 pm

@Jess:
If you think that story about the quarry in Connecticut is bad, wait until the ‘big one’ hits in Vancouver.

You’ll see how many concrete and brick-and-mortar buildings were made with beach sand instead of quarried sand.

The residual salt in beach sand reduces the strength of poured concrete to less than 50% of what might be expected from the design.

Google images from the recent earthquakes in Chile or Christchurch New Zealand for a sense of the structural integrity of these buildings.

#174 jess on 06.07.16 at 6:22 pm

47%

The Secret Shame of Middle-Class Americans

Nearly half of Americans would have trouble finding $400 to pay for an emergency. I’m one of them.
Neal Gabler May 2016 Issue

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/my-secret-shame/476415/

=========

#175 jess on 06.07.16 at 6:28 pm

173 Smartalox on 06.07.16 at 5:56 pm

regarding the sand ….

http://tvo.org/video/documentaries/sand-wars

#176 M on 06.07.16 at 11:34 pm

“I continue to think that the federal funds rate will probably need to rise gradually over time,” said boss Janet Yellen on Monday,”

…indeed… while wetting her depends.

“But don’t be so sure the Fed is packing it in.”
..of course not Gartho baby -> they are preparing to pack out QE4,5,6…etc

All this is just PERFECT. ..and your graph, fills my heart with joy !

#177 M on 06.07.16 at 11:41 pm

And yes.. Trump will win.
T2 will look like crap for his comments b4 counting the beans on US grand circus in November.
On this point, we have to give common-sense points to Harper (one of the most common sense-less politician ever).
T2 needs some fatherly kicks in the ass and maybe we’ll have a chance.

#178 Kelly Sue on 06.08.16 at 8:40 am

Yesterday I saw a man hitch hiking on a side street in an Ontario town of 25,000 people. I picked him up because he didn’t look like a bum but rather like an industrial worker who’s car was broken.

He didn’t say much other than thanks, and wanted to go to the next town over. I was going to Tim Hortons but at least he would be at a better spot to get a ride. His cell phone rang, and I could hear a woman talking really loudly. The man mumbled a few words before he hung up. Then he began to openly cry.

Over the next 3 minutes he told me how he moved from Nova Scotia to rural Ontario to find work. His wife had a baby 3 months premature. His new baby needed $43 worth of medicine, and he wouldn’t get paid until Friday. I heard most of this in real time from his hysterical wife on the cell phone. I handed him a tissue to dry his tears and told him not to worry.

Instead of dropping him at my Tim’s, I drove him the 18 minutes to the next town, dropped him at the Tim’s there, and handed him my last $55. He began to cry again.

Until you have seen a grown-ass man openly weep over $50, you will never understand how terrifying the economic reality of millions of people is out there right now.

Garth, I have read your blog for years, own my own home, have money in the bank, laugh at the Americans, but I have to tell you that a real mutha of a storm is brewing out there.

Keep blogging, if you help even 1 person to make better decisions it’s worth it.