Obsessed

DOG HEAD modified

News you should know as a pivotal week for Canadian real estate grinds to an end:

And then there were two...

A second Big 6 Bank CEO has come out in favour of Ottawa goosing minimum downpayments. Frist it was Brian Porter, the boss of Scotiabank, which says it has taken its “foot off the gas” when it comes to making new mortgage loans in sizzling Toronto and delusional Vancouver (too much risk). Porter has openly urged the feds to review the 5% minimum down that CMHC requires (it was raised a little in February by the T2 gang for houses selling between $500,ooo and a mill – a move which accomplished squat).

The head of National Bank of Canada has gone further, saying Ottawa should double the minimum – hiking it back to 10%. “For the longest time, we had minimum 10 percent cash down and we had 25-year maximum amortization and that worked very well,” says Louis Vachon. “I think over a period of time that’s where we need to gravitate back to.”

Now if only the CEO of The Bank of Mom would agree, we might get somewhere.

Cowtown Death Watch, Part Un

The self-obsessed in Van and the GTA should be reminded from time to time that real estate markets can turn from hot to not with both speed and conviction. In 2013 Bank of Montreal economists issued a report saying Calgary real estate was “the one market in Canada” they were certain would continue to shoot the lights out, thanks to a young population, a bustling economy and big in-migration.

Well, so much for that. Last month a measly 1,923 houses traded hands in a region with 1.3 million people, which was a 12% plop from the same month in 2015. Concurrently we’re seeing a classic pattern develop – as the number of sales falls, the number of listing rises. Available properties swelled by 14% as more families decided this is the time to bail.

Says the real estate board: “While recent oil price gains may have some feeling optimistic, weakness in the labour market continues to impact housing demand. Job losses are spreading into other sectors, wages are declining and unemployment levels remain high. At the same time, we’re seeing housing supply levels rise in the rental, new home and resale markets.”

Prices haven’t really moved, though, which is all the proof you need of how sticky markets are on the way down. Dwindling sales tell you the sellers are fools, however. Buyers smell blood, and are waiting. Two interest rate increases from now, they’ll be rewarded.

Cowtown Death Watch, Part Deux

The difference between emotional homeowners and rational business guys is knowing when to cut your losses. That’s exactly what’s happening now as Calgary’s commercial core relentlessly empties.

In the past five months alone, corporate tenants have bailed out of almost a million square feet of office space, with that landmark Bow Valley tower now sitting a third empty. Yikes. Overall the vacancy rate is obscene – averaging 25% when you add in the unleased spaces and the ‘ghost leases’ where companies continue to pay the rent but have zero employees working.

Nothing like this has been seen for 30 years, with over 8,000,000 square feet currently collecting dust. Worse, another two million feet of space is under construction by unfortunate builders who completed misread the economic signals (like current Vancouver FOMO buyers).

Empty offices = no jobs. And this was the beating heart of our country.

Forgive them. They know not what they do. Seriously.

Well, at least the average detached house price in Van fell by $100,000 last month from April (to $1.7 million). Other than that, the house-horniest burg in the nation continues to rollick its way towards the cliff. About all the rest of us can do now is offer prayers and condolences. This is how a local economy suicides.

When realtors unveiled the May numbers, it was worse than expected. Sales are running 35% above the 10-year average. More houses sold last month than any previous May on record. The benchmark price for all types of properties is $889,000, up 29.7% in a year. Condos are 22.3% more expensive. Town houses are up 25%. The benchmark price for detached is now $1.51 million, which is 36.9% more than last year.

Why? Demand is increasing as FOMO foments and YVR real estate becomes a giant commodity futures market. People buy because they expect prices to keep going up. So, they pay a premium, and prices pop. This is pure speculation, exacerbated by falling supply. There are only 7,726 listings in the region, down a massive 37% from last year as owners expect more gains and fear they couldn’t buy again if they sold.

As values swell, so does risk. This is like a bad disaster movie, with an 80-foot-high wall of tsunami destruction barreling towards the city, while the inhabitants fume over Asian teens in Lambos.

This could make Winnipeg look good.

214 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 06.02.16 at 7:06 pm

Winnipeg is owned and run by mosquitoes

#2 that guy on 06.02.16 at 7:10 pm

YOU DON’T GET FIRST!!!

#3 Salutations Sally on 06.02.16 at 7:11 pm

Possibly “first!”, but more importantly, what is “FOMO”? I see it often but can’t figure it out, thank you!

#4 TRUMP on 06.02.16 at 7:11 pm

WINTERPEG!!!!!

Not even if hell froze over.

#5 Mimi on 06.02.16 at 7:12 pm

Does it matter that Canadian residents are spread thin? Will real estate in the GTA and Vancouver fall if it’s anyways just a place for foreign investors to stash their ‘blood money’?

#6 jay on 06.02.16 at 7:13 pm

It’s all real estate all the time in Canada .http://business.financialpost.com/news/property-post/b-c-pension-fund-creates-giant-multi-billion-dollar-real-estate-company?__lsa=9f36-8774

#7 Heisenberg on 06.02.16 at 7:15 pm

That’s funny, I just refinanced with Scotiabank and they happily cut my lending rate by 0.20 with no penalty, as I had my last mortgage with them. My house is in Vancouver…so again, seems like a gap between what they say and what they do.

I regularly check this blog, because I enjoy reading peoples opinions, even if they differ from mine. There’s always good information here.

But I’ll always invest in real estate. Stocks and any financial products based on stocks are nothing but air. They have the true potential of a bubble bursting. I’ve had stocks literally disappear, but the same has never happened of a house.

For an alternate view of what’s driving YVR prices and why that market will not “pop”, check this out:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/vancouver-real-estate-mania/

#8 ricardo on 06.02.16 at 7:16 pm

Soo you admit to lots of asian teens in lambo’s??

#9 S.Bby on 06.02.16 at 7:18 pm

As I sit at my desk in within earshot of the office lunchroom, two guys are in there chatting about… real estate and foreign buyers. I remember when guys used to talk about sports.

#10 Gramps on 06.02.16 at 7:20 pm

Winnipeg has always looked better

#11 Victoria Real Estate Update on 06.02.16 at 7:21 pm

CANADA’S FALLING INTEREST RATE HOUSING PRICE RUN-UP (2008-2016)

. . . . . . . . . . . House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . .
. .Percent Above/Below June 2008 Price Level.
. . . . . . . x = Canada, * = Victoria . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+40% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . .
+35%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+30% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+25%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+20% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+15%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . . . x. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
….0%. . . x*. . . . . . *. . . . . . .*. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
————————————————————————–
. . . . . . June. . . . .June. . . . .Aug . . Apr. . .
. . . . . . 2008. . . . 2011. . . . 2014. . 2016. . .

(source: Teranet’s index) link

Interest rates were slashed from near-normal to emergency levels in early 2009. In 2008, Canadian 5-year mortgage rates were as high as 5.74%.

This major injection of stimulus by policy makers added maximum fuel to Canada’s housing market, pushing property sales and prices much higher than they would have been without this unprecedented intervention.

As a result, house prices across Canada are 37.2% higher than in 2008, based on Teranet’s data. As Garth says, houses in Canada aren’t intrinsically more valuable than they were in 2008. If rates had remained at 2008 levels, house prices may have remained flat across Canada over the past 8 years.

Victoria’s situation is much different. House prices here are only 5.8% higher than in 2008. This means that houses in Victoria are intrinsically much less valuable than they were in 2008. If rates had remained at 2008 levels, house prices in Victoria would likely be a lot lower (30%?) than they are today.

HOUSE PRICES FALL AS RATES RISE

As Garth has pointed out several times, there is an extremely strong correlation between rising rates and falling house prices. Simply put: house prices fall as rates rise.

It has as much or more to do with the loss in buyer confidence that will occur as rates rise as it does with fewer and fewer buyers qualifying for mortgages and that they will qualify for smaller and smaller loans.

The first rate drop by the Bank of Canada in 2015 increased buyer confidence dramatically in many markets across Canada, particularly in BC and Ontario.

Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates will begin normalizing almost immediately and will be higher than 5% within 2 to 3 years.

Buyers get excited when rates fall. Unfortunately for mortgage holders, the opposite is also true: buyers back off from the housing market when rates rise.

That prices will begin to decline may or may not coincide exactly with the beginning of the move upward in rates, but it will happen.

It won’t be different in your city.

#12 inflate - inflate on 06.02.16 at 7:22 pm

And the province set to pump up Toronto transit along with the Feds injection. Everybody’s heading for home in Toronto…. Nothing like a rate drop to further drop our dollar attracting more and more in…. In a year or two we’ll be firing on all cylinders so in the mean time hold on to what you have as rates here will drop. This government is one that believes in using its currency to help out a bad situation and so the Canadian rates are dropping for the near future…

#13 Wild Albertan Gonads on 06.02.16 at 7:22 pm

Thanks for the support. Want to buy my house?

#14 Danny Samuels on 06.02.16 at 7:24 pm

You know when real estate is toast when they have a big front page article in the Scarborough Mirror. Yikes!

#15 Village Whisperer on 06.02.16 at 7:27 pm

An “80 foot high Tsunami of destruction barreling towards the city”.

We continue to stand by our prediction of a 75% correction (minimum) when the wave hits. An equity scenario Elizabeth Holmes would envy.

#16 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 06.02.16 at 7:28 pm

As we already know, prices will be very sticky to come down. No one wants to walk away from their single-asset without atleast getting the swell of pride from buyers tripping over each other, willing to pay you over asking.

After rates start to rise, or when 10% minimums come back, or what ever else triggers the end, people will list, and they will angrily pull their listing after 10 days of disappointment. And then they will try again. Inventory will spike. Contracts will be full of crafty Subjects again (remember those?). Realtors will have to work. “Over Asking” claims will be rare.

It’s going to be hard to watch.

#17 definition of bubble? on 06.02.16 at 7:29 pm

If it goes up 30% in a year
and then goes down 30% the year after
is that considered a crash?

#18 Cowtown Bob on 06.02.16 at 7:35 pm

Hi Garth!

How much would prices have to fall to bring housing in line with when you started this delightful blog?…. plus inflation of course.

#19 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.02.16 at 7:37 pm

poor YVR and YYZ. their catastrophic reckoning will make Calgary look like a light summer rain

#20 the Jaguar on 06.02.16 at 7:38 pm

And this was the beating heart of our country.

Good to hear it finally acknowledged. And the great province of Alberta, so different from the rest, will rise again. Reinvented, renewed, stronger than ever.
Takes more than floods, fires, and tanking oil to keep Albertans down. All blows for sure. But the ones that remain after the carpetbaggers leave town ain’t quitters.

#21 Kelowna on 06.02.16 at 7:39 pm

Vancouver is clearly nothing more than a giant ponzi scheme – people who bought early will make out like crazy if they sell now but for everyone else who has just bought, or is about to buy, nothing but financial loss and hardship is coming their way!!

#22 S.Bby on 06.02.16 at 7:41 pm

OTTAWA — A junior minister has indicated the Liberal government is mulling a luxury tax on foreign buyers of multi-million dollar homes — even as a temporary measure.

A temporary tax. where have we heard that before.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2738797/feds-considering-luxury-tax-on-foreign-buyers-of-multi-million-dollar-homes/

#23 Ace Goodheart on 06.02.16 at 7:41 pm

Calgary’s a one horse town. That horse is oil. Take away the oil industry, no one wants to live there. Too cold, too isolated, too in the middle of nowhere.

Toronto and Vancouver are different. We don’t all live in Toronto because there is oil here (and that’s why we came, and that’s why we’re staying).

#24 Smartalox on 06.02.16 at 7:42 pm

So which city is farther along in its slide? Calgary, where sellers are starting to stampede to the exits, and are retreating back to wherever they came from before the oil patch,

Or Vancouver, where nobody is listing because they fear they won’t be able to afford to buy their next house locally. Don’t Vancouverites have places to retreat to, too?

Or is the difference that Vancouverites would rather be in Vancouver, compared to anywhere else?

I guess that there are other reasons, too. I know of one American ex-pat couple that bought a house in Vancouver 15 years ago when they transferred to Vancouver for work. Now they’re hanging on to the house in Vancouver, despite having been transferred back to the US, because they recognize that as Americans, they’ll owe massive capital gains taxes on their property profits if they sell.

#25 Still Hot In Van on 06.02.16 at 7:42 pm

An acquaintance listed their house for 850k in Surrey. I was there the day the before the open house. 2 Chinese groups showed up, they were asked to come back the next day for the open house on Sunday. The real estate agent arranged to accept offers on Monday. They got over 1 million. Their neighbour across the street immediately sold to the buyer that was outbid. True story bro…

#26 Doug t on 06.02.16 at 7:47 pm

Tent city in victoria has seen their property value increase as well lol

#27 HD on 06.02.16 at 7:49 pm

http://www.lapresse.ca/maison/immobilier/201606/02/01-4987626-un-condo-sur-trois-vendu-a-perte.php

Best,

HD

#28 Randy on 06.02.16 at 7:52 pm

Trudeau speech at the G7 #canpoli https://www.facebook.com/NoLibs/photos/p.1138449659538735/1138449659538735/?type=3&theater

#29 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 7:53 pm

I betting on the house of mom.

The kids belive
Man made global warming.
Boys the same as girls.
A prime minster acting like a female is cool
Social Justice
Democracy is real.
Anything goes bathrooms
Real estate never goes down.
Aliens don’t exist.

#30 Andrew Woburn on 06.02.16 at 7:53 pm

In the past five months alone, corporate tenants have bailed out of almost a million square feet of office space, with that landmark Bow Valley tower not sitting a third empty. Yikes. Overall the vacancy rate is obscene – averaging 25% when you add in the unleased spaces and the ‘ghost leases’ where companies continue to pay the rent but have zero employees working.
========================

But when the tide turns, there will be plenty of cheap space in Calgary to power another business recovery which will help suck whatever economic life is left out of Vancouver at that point.

I love Vancouver but there is no point being there if you are always broke. When you’re child-free and thirty, you can roll with it. At forty, not so much.

#31 GrahamK on 06.02.16 at 7:55 pm

Check out this graphic on Vancouver real estate that was highlighted by the Van Sun today … epic!

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/vancouver-real-estate-mania/

#32 Keith in Calgary on 06.02.16 at 7:55 pm

Sitting here in Penticton, BC, this week on business. Empty storefronts are everywhere, and you can just tell the city is hurting bad. The motels are empty, and out of province license plates on the street are non-existent…….it’s 26 degrees in June.

Staff where I am working were talking today about how the……..”Vancouver Chinese Madness is moving into Kelowna where houses are selling like hotcakes, and it is coming down to Penticton now”…………..

ROTFLMAO…….!!

#33 Andrew Woburn on 06.02.16 at 7:56 pm

The media have been excitable lately about the challenge posed to traditional banking by alternative financial technologies usually called “fintech”. Saner heads say not to worry. The big banks will just wait, watch, and buy out the fintech leaders.

But what if fintech leaders turn out not to need anyone’s cash and already have global reach and credibility….like Apple or Google or Amazon.

http://business.financialpost.com/midas-letter/heres-where-fin-tech-may-succeed-in-re-ordering-global-banking

#34 Interstellar Star Stuff on 06.02.16 at 7:57 pm

#7 Heisenberg on 06.02.16 at 7:15 pm

That’s funny, I just refinanced with Scotiabank and they happily cut my lending rate by 0.20 with no penalty, as I had my last mortgage with them. My house is in Vancouver…so again, seems like a gap between what they say and what they do.

I regularly check this blog, because I enjoy reading peoples opinions, even if they differ from mine. There’s always good information here.

But I’ll always invest in real estate. Stocks and any financial products based on stocks are nothing but air. They have the true potential of a bubble bursting. I’ve had stocks literally disappear, but the same has never happened of a house.

For an alternate view of what’s driving YVR prices and why that market will not “pop”, check this out:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/vancouver-real-estate-mania/

It’s uncertain isn’t it.

#35 Shortymac on 06.02.16 at 7:57 pm

I knew prices where crazy when Innisfil prices in a new development started at 490k for a detached bungalow.

I’m going to go to a showroom this Saturday and send you some pics and laughs.

I do wonder, how are places like innisfil going to fare in the coming house crash.

#36 Brazil ex-pat on 06.02.16 at 7:58 pm

the not so Canadian Quebec loophole…….

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/vancouver-real-estate-mania/

#37 jay on 06.02.16 at 8:00 pm

Kid’s you better be nice to to your mommy and daddy. http://www.news1130.com/2016/06/02/metro-vancouver-housing-prices-expected-climb/

#38 boonerator on 06.02.16 at 8:01 pm

3 Salutations Sally:

FOMO Fear Of Missing Out

applies to shoes, Iphones, anything that can induce loss of rationality.

#39 JSS on 06.02.16 at 8:04 pm

Winnipeg = awesome

#40 Chaddywack on 06.02.16 at 8:08 pm

We’re moving to Calgary in a couple of weeks. It will be nice to get out of Vancouver for awhile. My wife wants to come back here eventually, but we’ll see.

Calgary certainly isn’t Vancouver. People hold the door open for you, smile and talk to you, and don’t talk about real estate.

#41 Lead Paint on 06.02.16 at 8:13 pm

#28 Unionized Teacher on 05.31.16 at 6:44 pm

“blockchain fundamentally relies on Bitcoin” – it’s the reverse of this, Bitcoin is built on block chain technology.

The rest of your diatribe was equally invalid. FYI there are different verification methods such as proof of stake.

If any powerful group of miners tried to manipulate Bitcoin, the best they would do is erode confidence in the system and devalue their ownership stake.

Blockchains will change just about everything, your ignorance being one sad exception.

#42 Marc on 06.02.16 at 8:18 pm

Garth-what is your opinion on Winnipeg residential market? 50 year old 1200sqft bungalows selling for $300 per sqft easily. Offer dates on all decent properties. New build 1500sqft town minimum $250 per sqft. Ridiculous in my mind!

#43 Unhinged Loon on 06.02.16 at 8:33 pm

More dog worship. Let’s investigate this condition and the character of men which suffer under it:

“Dog-lovers base their whole case on these commonplace, servile, and plebeian qualities, and amusingly judge the intelligence of a pet by its degree of conformity to their own wishes. Catlovers escape this delusion, repudiate the idea that cringing subservience and sidling companionship to man are supreme merits, and stand free to worship aristocratic independence, self-respect, and individual personality joined to extreme grace and beauty as typified by the cool, lithe, cynical, and unconquered lord of the housetops.”

“Persons of commonplace ideas—unimaginative worthy burghers who are satisfied with the daily round of things and who subscribe to the popular credo of sentimental values—will always be dog-lovers. To them nothing will ever be more important than themselves and their own more primitive feelings, and they will never cease to esteem and glorify the fellow-animal who best typifies these. “

#44 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 8:34 pm

In my room at Salamanca NY. Here for the weekend. Shit you can do when gambling pays.

In my boxers and a 26 ounce of JD 1/2 full trying to bang out chapter 12.

On TV wwf wrestling, Chunky Chics is the best way to describe it.

We got Becky Lynch vs charlotte. The stadium is full. Go figure.

And you dogs try and understand the stupidity of herd in real estate. They fill stadiums.

All the same, the chic’s a sort of hot.

Oh Beckey just takes the title on a technical.

Oh man two other hot chics just jumped in the ring to kick the shit out of Becky.

This is why I’m getting fit, I’ve pissed off enough radical femanizs that I will be confronted one day.

My work-out dogs.
dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.com

#45 Rexx Rock on 06.02.16 at 8:38 pm

Maybe 1 or 2 more years of big gains in YVR and YYZ and prices will soften in real estate.I don’t think the wages can keep up.Alot of boomers will cash in and thank their lucky stars and will have a wonderful retirement thanks to the dumb millineals.

#46 AK on 06.02.16 at 8:39 pm

#3 Salutations Sally on 06.02.16 at 7:11 pm ”
“What is “FOMO”? I see it often but can’t figure it out, thank you!”
====================================

FOMO : “Fear of missing out”

#47 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.02.16 at 8:50 pm

#140 You built that, and it’s Crrrrrap! on 06.02.16 at 11:24 am

Sorry for the delayed response. Yes REALTOR.ca is crap. But again the MLS® is a SYSTEM we built for our own internal use. REALTOR.ca is simply something we provide to appease the disgruntled (public) masses. BTW it used to be MLS.ca but we changed it to better protect the registered trademark MLS®

#48 The Answer on 06.02.16 at 8:51 pm

Consider for a minute the “Greatest Generation” – those who put their lives on the line in WW2. A million Canadian men served. 42,000 died. Why? My dad was one of those men in the Royal Canadian Air Force. He tells me they saved the world from totalitarian dictatorship to provide freedom and prosperity for their children.

By every measure, they pulled it off. Their children, the Baby Boomers, grew up in relative stability and peace. They were allowed to dream – and their dreams could be realized with a bit of hard work. My older Baby Boomer cousins left the farm to become doctors and other professionals. Education was affordable. Jobs were out there. They climbed the corporate ladders. They bought nice homes, recreational property.

Now look at the younger Millennials. I truly feel for that generation. Competition for schooling is brutal. And it’s expensive. Jobs are scarce. Incomes are low. Housing is unattainable. Pensions have vanished. And unfunded liabilities pile up for this generation to “take care of someday”.

As a final nail in the coffin, we are selling out to foreign speculators and denying this generation an opportunity to own a home and raise their own families. I think it’s madness.

It’s not the Boomers who have directly allowed this, rather the politician that they have elected. These politicians actually believe that tightening lending standards is a solution to the housing crisis when offshore speculation continues to power prices higher and higher? The two are mutually exclusive.

There is only one solution… DRAMATICALLY RESTRICT OFFSHORE SPECULATION IN OUR REAL ESTATE MARKETS. Simple. Unambiguous. Clear. Not after a bunch of studies. Not after research. NOW. Again, simple, unambiguous, and clear.

But the politically correct and corrupt politicians won’t do it. Instead Vancouver’s Gregor Robertson’s solution is to create affordable housing for the Millennials that disturbingly resemble Native Indian Reservations of 150 years ago. “Keep out of our way and live HERE. On this special property. Just for you.”

It’s all criminal. I’ve been encouraging the young professionals at my work to rise up. Expect a Bernie Sanders in Canada in the near future because these kids are angry. And if this younger group actually has the guts to do what needs to be done, I hope these politicians are someday charged with treason for selling out our kids’ futures.

There is scant evidence offshore buyers have made housing unaffordable. In contrast, the evidence is overwhelming that locals are. Good luck with your revolution. — Garth

#49 RE Forever! on 06.02.16 at 8:53 pm

” Buyers smell blood, and are waiting.” – Garth

——————————————————-

What nonsense! Been hearing the same BS for years. These blood-smellers should see an ENT specialist.

#50 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.02.16 at 8:57 pm

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.16 at 4:56 pm

Would I work for the Devil if the price was right?

#51 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.02.16 at 9:00 pm

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.16 at 4:56 pm

Would I work for the Devil if the price was right? I probably would. If the Devil hired me it would mean he had confidence in me. That confidence would be a consequence of influence. Think about it… What an awesome change I could make by having such influence over the Devil… and I get paid for doing it. THAT is something I could definately buy in to. What an absolutely fantastic contribution I could make by influencing the devil to better serve us.

Sign me up! };-)

#52 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 9:02 pm

DELETED

#53 Ronaldo on 06.02.16 at 9:07 pm

Here is the 5th priciest house in Canada up for sale. Will be interesting to see who snags this one and for what price.

http://sothebysrealty.ca/en/property/alberta/calgary-real-estate/calgary/63209/

#54 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.02.16 at 9:11 pm

If it goes up 30% in a year
and then goes down 30% the year after
is that considered a crash?

yes. and a bad one. the up 30 is a year’s gain. the down 30 is a decline over all equity gains over all years

#55 S.Bby on 06.02.16 at 9:19 pm

#45 Rexx Rock
More likely they will do what my elderly neighbours are doing and stay put in their dilapidated houses until they are carried out.

#56 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 9:19 pm

Song I grew up with that’s never out of my head.

https://youtu.be/HNzmrEgz_GI

It’s a hard world to get a break in
All the good things have been taken
But girl there are ways to make certain things pay
Though I’m dressed in these rags, I’ll wear sable some day

Hear what I say
I’m gonna ride the serpent
No more time spent sweatin’ rent
Hear my command
I’m breakin’ loose, it ain’t no use
Holdin’ me down, stick around

But baby (baby)
Remember (remember)
It’s my life and I’ll do what I want
It’s my mind and I’ll think what I want
Show me I’m wrong, hurt me sometime
But some day I’ll treat you real fine

There’ll be women and their fortunes
Who just want to mother orphans
Are you gonna cry, when I’m squeezin’ you dry
Takin’ all I can get, no regrets
When I, openly lie
And leave only money
Believe me honey, that money
Can you believe, I ain’t no saint
No complaints
So girl go out
Hand it out

And baby (baby)
Remember (remember)
It’s my life and I’ll do what I want
It’s my mind and I’ll think what I want
Show me I’m wrong, hurt me sometime
But some day I’ll treat you real fine

(It’s my life and I’ll do what I want) Don’t push me
(It’s my mind and I’ll think what I want) It’s my life
(It’s my life and I’ll do what I want) And I can do what I want
(It’s my mind and I’ll think what I want) You can’t tell me
(It’s my life and I’ll do what I want)

#57 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.02.16 at 9:21 pm

the US is BOOOOMING!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-economy-is-booming-the-fed-is-likely-to-raise-rates-so-be-bullish-2016-06-02

sorry Canada

#58 Dirt Dog on 06.02.16 at 9:21 pm

#29 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 7:53 pm

Your hitting the Nail dead-on!!’

#59 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 9:30 pm

Christ Garth, it’s only 9:30 and I got a 1/4 of a bottle left.

A delete this early…….

You ain’t seen nothing yet bro..

#60 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 9:34 pm

Anyone young living in Ontario who hasn’t offshore vast amounts of casino wins.

Fallow an animals advice.

https://youtu.be/jxNEiZhpinY

#61 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.02.16 at 9:37 pm

fully employed girls and boys!

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0YO2BH

#62 bigtowne on 06.02.16 at 9:39 pm

The latest pro immigration studies purported that Toronto would be a major hub for financial and retail jobs…but the banks have one meme: DIGITAL and Amazon is giving the real slackers a run for their money i.e. Canada Post package delivery.

So Toronto will not need to fill the towers with more and more better educated from Asia or the U.K. and we are overstored due to our shopping in the comfort of our home.

So what should have been a major shaping marketing tool for uberimmigration has now caved and it looks like the new image and rhetoric coming from our friends the Liberal party is to the effect we need more friends for the Liberal party. Friends are a good thing but Friends with Money are a really good thing. I get all goosey when I think about my Canadian friends with money campaigning and canvasing for our patriots…your local Liberals.

#63 CalgaryDowntownOfficeVacancies on 06.02.16 at 9:45 pm

If I were looking to vacate an expensive office lease in Vancouver or anywhere else in Canada – I would be looking to Calgary as a potential location to move my staff and office lease to (note: all the vacant space). Smart business moves to where the deals are the best and the younger employees can afford housing and will have less stress and worry as there are less taxes to pay.

#64 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 9:46 pm

How Nictonites power mother ships low on plasma fuel.

https://youtu.be/RNgBz1a7Pfw

Ice aga is coming, Ashman fueled up on our sun? Moron. Move to equidor, something tells me real eastate will sky rocket with all the refugees from up north.

#65 Jack on 06.02.16 at 9:48 pm

Umm Winnipeg is actually nice. Short drives to beaches when you wanna go not too crowded. I moved here from Southern Ontario because cost of living is actually normal and there’s jobs. Winnipeg ain’t as bad as you think. You’d be surprised.

#66 common sense on 06.02.16 at 9:55 pm

#61 Wally

Fully employed? Now that’s rich….

I guess those rates can be so simply raised a full 1% now couldn’t they? Why not? Everything is booming and The FED would NEVER manipulate stats….Never…too funny.

#67 barb on 06.02.16 at 9:56 pm

Penticton’s got a lot of commercial vacancies?

Jeez, come look at Vernon’s…For Lease, For Sale, For Rent, Empty Coz Nothin’ Worked Even Years Ago…everywhere, on every street. Look up, even the second floors.

The only people making good coin in this town are bureaucrats, and there are a sh**load of ’em. More all the time.

Interesting ‘coz all of the province of B.C.’s cities and municipalities have unfunded pension liabilities. You should see what we pay in property taxes/fees, (vis a vis what “services” are received), etc. just so they can turn the lights on.

Tons of Albertans seem to have come back here, but disappointment reigns. Nothing’s changed from years ago when all there was for work was pumpin’ gas or flippin’ burgers…on split shifts. Jeez.

#68 Dirt Dog on 06.02.16 at 9:58 pm

#40 Chaddywack on 06.02.16 at 8:08 pm

It’s Vancouver….if we’re not bitching about the weather we’re talkin about how much “lift” we got putting in a new hot water tank.

#69 Tony on 06.02.16 at 10:02 pm

Re: #24 Smartalox on 06.02.16 at 7:42 pm

You just sell it to a friend for far below market value. Then he gives you the cash from an offshore account to make up some of the difference.

#70 Damifino on 06.02.16 at 10:05 pm

#17 definition of bubble?

If it goes up 30% in a year and then goes down 30% the year after is that considered a crash?
—————————

That’s a 9% loss.

Say you have $100 and it gains 30%. Now you have $130. If it then looses 30% (i.e 70% of $130) you’re back to $91.

Not a crash maybe, but still a bummer.

#71 Tony on 06.02.16 at 10:09 pm

Re: #57 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 06.02.16 at 9:21 pm

Market watch always tells you nothing but pure lies. The next move in U.S. interest rates is downward.

#72 Yuus bin Haad on 06.02.16 at 10:22 pm

Speaking of Lambos, I ran into John Roth the other day and I was saying how a lot of people were hurt when Nortel went under and he said (and this’ll kill ya): “Nortel went under?”

#73 Wild Albertan Gonads on 06.02.16 at 10:25 pm

#40 Chaddywack on 06.02.16 at 8:08 pm

We’re moving to Calgary in a couple of weeks. It will be nice to get out of Vancouver for awhile. My wife wants to come back here eventually, but we’ll see.

Calgary certainly isn’t Vancouver. People hold the door open for you, smile and talk to you, and don’t talk about real estate.


Want to buy my house? Great deal!

#74 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 10:31 pm

Hunter s Thompson. Never knew he existed till I wondered on this pathetic shit hole of blog.

He had the spirt of a god , technical skills un challanged.

Sort of motivated me when you dogs saw a connection, a smilularity apart from the Bucherd English laugange shit.

He picked some one with balls that looks forward to death.

I ain’t no hunter. But his soul is in my mind. His ghost is a fking idiot , He should have found someone that could spell better.

#75 Lulu on 06.02.16 at 10:34 pm

Saw this today about Aussie, very similar to our real estate prices or even more fierce, BUT look what happen in one of their suburb.. Kid you not if that happen in T dot or Vancity….. OH MY LORD!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_ktN_h7-J4

#76 David on 06.02.16 at 10:41 pm

#72 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 10:31 pm
Hunter s Thompson. Never knew he existed till I wondered on this pathetic shit hole of blog.

He had the spirt of a god , technical skills un challanged.

Sort of motivated me when you dogs saw a connection, a smilularity apart from the Bucherd English laugange shit.

He picked some one with balls that looks forward to death.

I ain’t no hunter. But his soul is in my mind. His ghost is a fking idiot , He should have found someone that could spell better.
——————————
Mayby you will blow your god dam head off too!

#77 Wild Albertan Gonads on 06.02.16 at 10:53 pm

#76 David on 06.02.16 at 10:41 pm

#72 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 10:31 pm
Hunter s Thompson. Never knew he existed till I wondered on this pathetic shit hole of blog.

He had the spirt of a god , technical skills un challanged.

Sort of motivated me when you dogs saw a connection, a smilularity apart from the Bucherd English laugange shit.

He picked some one with balls that looks forward to death.

I ain’t no hunter. But his soul is in my mind. His ghost is a fking idiot , He should have found someone that could spell better.
——————————
Mayby you will blow your god dam head off too!
—-

Not clear it was self inflicted.
http://www.thompsonmurder.com/

#78 Preferred Shares.. what are some good ones? on 06.02.16 at 10:53 pm

Garth, which preferred shares should I invest in right now? Looking for ones that have some room to grow in value.

I want the capital gain later as well as dividend payout. Yes, I want it all.

I’m rebuilding my TFSA account from scratch. Transferring from savings account to an actual portfolio. Balanced and diversified, just like you said. You suggest 20% of your portfolio should be preferred shares.

Your example of the 5 piles in ETF’s:
(a) S&P 500
(b) TSX 60
(c) Basket of preferred shares
(d) Real Estate investment trusts (REIT’s)
(e) Canadian bond index

Should I buy all of one kind (i.e. CPD) or is “basket” like saying sub-diversification?

CPD looks good, paying out about 5 cents (0.41% per share) every 30 days. and share price looks low @ $12. Looks like room to grow there, long term. Especially with the coming interest rate hikes.

#79 macroman on 06.02.16 at 10:55 pm

Yeah barb, Vernon sucks. No need for Albeerians or Van lottery winners to come here. I can’t drive through town now as it is.

This place is awful. The wineries, champagne powder, world class golf, incredible backcountry, all full of Winterpeg mosquitos.

$4 pints at the Yacht club while watching the sailing races. This place blows.

Speaking of blows, is there a pool on smoking man pulling a Hunter Thompson?

#80 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 11:01 pm

I’m back, I sort of puked after 26 ounces of JD .

That reflex has been gone for years… walking 6 km a day is paying off.

#81 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 11:05 pm

#77 Wild Albertan Gonads on 06.02.16 at 10:53 pm
#76 David on 06.02.16 at 10:41 pm

#72 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 10:31 pm
Hunter s Thompson. Never knew he existed till I wondered on this pathetic shit hole of blog.

He had the spirt of a god , technical skills un challanged.

Sort of motivated me when you dogs saw a connection, a smilularity apart from the Bucherd English laugange shit.

He picked some one with balls that looks forward to death.

I ain’t no hunter. But his soul is in my mind. His ghost is a fking idiot , He should have found someone that could spell better.
——————————
Mayby you will blow your god dam head off too!
—-

Not clear it was self inflicted.
http://www.thompsonmurder.com/
..

I know who did it….. but I’ll get deleted if I talk about it.
Gartho has my back.

#82 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 11:09 pm

#76 David on 06.02.16 at 10:41 pm
#72 Smoking Man on 06.02.16 at 10:31 pm
Hunter s Thompson. Never knew he existed till I wondered on this pathetic shit hole of blog.

He had the spirt of a god , technical skills un challanged.

Sort of motivated me when you dogs saw a connection, a smilularity apart from the Bucherd English laugange shit.

He picked some one with balls that looks forward to death.

I ain’t no hunter. But his soul is in my mind. His ghost is a fking idiot , He should have found someone that could spell better.
——————————
Mayby you will blow your god dam head off too!
….

Fking vilont libtards is all I’m thinking. I’m from the planet of cool.

We don’t do shit like that.

#83 DON on 06.02.16 at 11:11 pm

“while the inhabitants fume over Asian teens in Lambos” Garth

#8 ricardo on 06.02.16 at 7:16 pm

Soo you admit to lots of asian teens in lambo’s??
**********************

Exactly where did Garth refer to “lots”

talk about embellishing…the text is right there…read carefully.

#84 BS on 06.02.16 at 11:14 pm

#7 Heisenberg on 06.02.16 at 7:15 pm
That’s funny, I just refinanced with Scotiabank and they happily cut my lending rate by 0.20 with no penalty, as I had my last mortgage with them. My house is in Vancouver…so again, seems like a gap between what they say and what they do.

I regularly check this blog, because I enjoy reading peoples opinions, even if they differ from mine. There’s always good information here.

But I’ll always invest in real estate. Stocks and any financial products based on stocks are nothing but air. They have the true potential of a bubble bursting. I’ve had stocks literally disappear, but the same has never happened of a house.

For an alternate view of what’s driving YVR prices and why that market will not “pop”, check this out:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/vancouver-real-estate-mania/

You should re-read the article. And take note of the title. Too funny.

Definition of mania

: mental illness in which a person becomes very emotional or excited
: extreme enthusiasm for something that is usually shared by many people

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/mania

#85 rainclouds on 06.02.16 at 11:15 pm

#20 jaguar “And this was the beating heart of our country.Good to hear it finally acknowledged. And the great province of Alberta, so different from the rest, will rise again. Reinvented, renewed, stronger than ever.
Takes more than floods, fires, and tanking oil to keep Albertans down. All blows for sure. But the ones that remain after the carpetbaggers leave town ain’t quitters.”

Ahhh yes the myopic, insular, mythology of the fearless, idefagtiable nobody does it better than us Albertans. Yeee Hawww, Git er done.
I suspect those “carpetbaggers” who had the initiative to uproot from their homes elsewhere to contribute to the success of “the beating heart of the country ” enjoy meeting real Albertans such as youself to make them better people.

Few years ago was chairing a conference call, the Albertans commenced bickering about Edmonton vs Calgary I finally had to tell them “nobody cares” . Found out later Dude in Chicago found it amusing. He wanted to know where Alberta was.

Yea your “different than the rest”. but not in the way you envision.

MBC58

#86 Aggregator on 06.02.16 at 11:28 pm

Are home values determined by objectivity or subjectivity?

Some of you may be following Calgary's RE market and noticed that the average price growth is still positive while dollar volume and sales decline, and active listing soar. What does this mean? It means there are more homes being uploaded onto the marketplace with zero bids, making those home worth, well..nothing. Useless assets.

How can that be? All that wood flooring, granite, stainless steel, bricks… someone paid for it, someone built it. Yes they did, and now, just like that, there are little or no fools willing to bid for it.

We've seen this during the 2008 crises where entire suburbs across America couldn't catch a bid. There were literally no buyers as dollar volume evaporated. The banks who had securitized those mortgages couldn't even value the home because there was not enough data. Despite what any appraiser valued the home at, it was worthless without liquidity.

Calgary's dollar volume in May 2013 was $1.5 billion  Last month dollar volume was $684 million. This market has more then halved in a time span of three years. And the outlook doesn't look great with oil about to move lower as global storage capacity is maxing out. Declining dollar volume is a problem because what determines the value of Calgary's entire housing stock (that is all homes built, mortgaged or outright owned) is the market place, which is now half the size it was three years ago.

This is a lesson for you observers (and homeowners) of how fast things can go wrong. Real estate has a longer market cycle then all other assets, measured in generations, which makes it appear to be the ultimate asset. But the reality is as all empirical evidence shows, when it turns, it's a mammoth crisis with only a few survivors.

It's what people think and believe it's worth that determines value. Not the amount of labour and material used to make it. This is why central banks focus so much on stability and preserving confidence. If that goes, everything goes. Just like that.

Are we there yet? I don't think so. There are still many schemes the Bank of Canada and government will try. In fact, are about to try that will make the situation worse. And don't listen to these banks CEOs who are posturing as prudent market players. Look at their balance sheets if you want to know what they really think.

#87 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 06.02.16 at 11:38 pm

#17 definition of bubble?

If it goes up 30% in a year and then goes down 30% the year after is that considered a crash?
—————————
If you were living in the house BEFORE it gained 30%, you didn’t gain or lose anything. missed opportunity.

If you were the greater fool that bought AFTER the gain, it’s a paper loss that you lose sleep over. Start making Kraft Dinner and lump sum payments.

#88 Bond Junkie on 06.02.16 at 11:41 pm

Hahaha smokie taking a little stroll down lakeshore about to pass the Boulevard. I thought you just hung out in le Branch!? Nice to see you down there, that is my regular route.

#89 Hey Sally check this out on 06.02.16 at 11:44 pm

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=FOMO

#90 Loon on 06.02.16 at 11:54 pm

@S.Bby

As I sit at my desk in within earshot of the office lunchroom, two guys are in there chatting about… real estate and foreign buyers. I remember when guys used to talk about sports.

Seriously ?!? Real estate is a sport !

#91 Joe2.0 on 06.02.16 at 11:57 pm

So how does this play put.
-People considering buying commit befor the lending criteria stiffens hence more buyers entering the market.

-People who have amassed a profit in there homes(especially aging demographics) start to sell as the market slows after the new rules kick in.

-People who have sold need to down size or relocate.
Fueling condos, townhouses and less expensive areas, Victoria/ Sunshine Coast / interior…

-People wanting to live in Canada with significant cash flow continue to buy the pricier homes.

#92 will on 06.02.16 at 11:59 pm

friend of mine in s’toon a drywaller. minimal work. he’s still collecting ei well into the traditional building season. it’s over in s’toon. i think i’ll say that again: it’s over in s’toon.

#93 BlackDog on 06.03.16 at 12:03 am

@Smartalox #25 “I guess that there are other reasons, too. I know of one American ex-pat couple that bought a house in Vancouver 15 years ago when they transferred to Vancouver for work. Now they’re hanging on to the house in Vancouver, despite having been transferred back to the US, because they recognize that as Americans, they’ll owe massive capital gains taxes on their property profits if they sell.”

Sad that the Canadian government allows USA to steal money that should stay in the Canadian economy. Those friends of yours lived here 15 years. Maybe they were even Canadian citizens as well as American. What right does USA have to a cut in the capital gains on their house in Canada which was most likely paid for with income earned in Canada while they lived here for 15 years?

The other way around does not and will not ever happen. Canadians can leave Canada for extended periods of permanently and are not used as trojan horses to extract foreign earned, foreign held assets that have no connection to Canada other than that the owners have Canadian citizenship.

If the Canadian government had any balls it would tell USA to switch to residence based taxation like the rest of the world and not treat people who fit the US definition of ‘US person’ as eternal tax and penalty slaves.

Rant over.

#94 Life among the Stars on 06.03.16 at 12:05 am

Hey smoking dude… the expanding universe is expanding faster that thought. Dark energy dude. Hope your space ship can keep up ….you’ve got a shrinkage problem.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/jun/03/universe-is-expanding-up-to-9-faster-than-we-thought-say-scientists

#95 Smoking Man on 06.03.16 at 12:11 am

Lead belly lives on future generations

https://youtu.be/jwtpfeRyt64

#96 BlackDog on 06.03.16 at 12:18 am

@Smartalox,

Having just reread your comment, I am assuming that your friends actually did not live in Canada for 15 years – obviously they did not settle permanently in Canada.

But did you know, that even if they left USA as young children, became Canadian citizens at a young age, never went to school in USA, never earned a dime of US sourced income, owned their house in Canada for decades, worked in Canada for decades, they would STILL have to pay capital gains to the USA when they finally sold?

So, maybe Garth’s readers won’t sympathize with your more ‘American’ friends, the 100’s of thousands of fellow Canadians with long ago, tenuous US connection, who have recently (or will soon) discovered that the US considers them ‘tax cheats’ while the Canadian government is helping to smoke them out.

#97 Salutations Sally on 06.03.16 at 12:18 am

Thx for the FOMO explanations #38 Boonerator and to #46 AK.

#98 BlackDog on 06.03.16 at 12:21 am

ooops…sucks there is no edit feature.

Should have wrote:

So, maybe Garth’s readers won’t sympathize with your more ‘American’ friends, but they should be supportive of the 100’s of thousands of fellow Canadians with long ago, tenuous US connection, who have recently discovered (or will soon) that the US considers them ‘tax cheats’ while the Canadian government is helping to smoke them out.

#99 dienekes on 06.03.16 at 12:27 am

To a previous poster.

A 30% decline wipes out a 50% gain.

#100 Smoking Man on 06.03.16 at 12:36 am

https://youtu.be/CKBRc8zNQ30

The wife

#101 DON on 06.03.16 at 12:37 am

#49 RE Forever! on 06.02.16 at 8:53 pm

” Buyers smell blood, and are waiting.” – Garth

——————————————————-

What nonsense! Been hearing the same BS for years. These blood-smellers should see an ENT specialist.
***************************

So…just because it hasn’t happened yet (well at least not in Toronto or Vancouver) it will never happen.

We have seen this movie before: US, Ireland, Spain etc.

#102 Eden Prosper on 06.03.16 at 12:41 am

Has the BBC been taking lessons from the CBC?

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/7190752/Auntie-is-anti-white-Applicants-anger-over-telly-jobs-just-for-minority-groups.html

Is ‘White Hate’ the new ‘Hate Harper’ Campaign.

I remember Stockwell Day giving the same speech about ‘whites’ not being hired in favour of new immigrants…what gives Canada? Seriously, if there’s no work for the half million people we import every year, is it the tax payers responsibility to give up our own futures in order to make theirs better?

#103 Koshy Alex on 06.03.16 at 12:41 am

At 7.6%, India is the fastest-growing economy or the best data fudger

http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/folk-theorem/at-7-6-india-is-the-fastest-growing-economy-or-the-best-data-fudger/

#104 Smoking Man on 06.03.16 at 12:43 am

https://youtu.be/iPKTQkkK3YM

#105 Mr Happy on 06.03.16 at 12:45 am

65 Jack on 06.02.16 at 9:48 pm
Umm Winnipeg is actually nice. . Winnipeg ain’t as bad as you think. You’d be surprised.

Um…ya….do you need to screen your patios?

Right….end of story…..

#106 AisA on 06.03.16 at 12:49 am

The point at which I will start laughing is when prices drop 10% and people yell bottom.

I will have pains in my sides when prices drop 30% and people scream deal of a lifetime.

At 50% lower than today, I will be gasping for air from all the laughter as the general consensus proclaims that there is no sense to bother with real estate anymore because you can only lose money in Canada.

In a sixty percent ditch, I may start shopping around.

And if it never happens? I lose nothing anyway. If I have to buy my house once from the former owner (the asking price), again from the bank (the interest on today’s principal), and a third time from the government (property taxes). Hell, you can keep it.

#107 Why feed us lies? on 06.03.16 at 12:53 am

The Banks may increase downpayment to 10% across the board….oh so scaryyyy.

Lets not insult our intelligence. No detached house in Vancouver can be bought with less than 20% down. So please post news and regulations that have teeth.

Boosting minimum downpayment on houses (that require 20%) to 10% is an insult to our intelligence.

#108 RocDoc on 06.03.16 at 1:08 am

I feel sorry for anyone buying a home in Vancouver now. That FIREcracker girl and the Wanderer are smart to skip the home purchase and wander the world instead.

#109 Andrew on 06.03.16 at 1:15 am

“More houses sold last month than any previous May on record”

I certainly agree that Canada’s biggest markets are hot, hot HOT right now.

I’m not sure that I agree this necessarily spells bigger risk, however.

I think the fundamentals support the fast price apprecation in GTA and Vancouver:

There are simply more people who want to buy homes than there are homes being built.

Period!

#110 Winterpeg on 06.03.16 at 1:33 am

“This could make Winnipeg look good.”
Do you mean “good” in general, or from a real estate perspective? Winnipeg’s always been “good” . (minus the skeets which should be out any day now)
In real estate , a few places here have experienced a bit of a bid-up, but in general I think sale prices end up being a couple thousand lower. Prices still too high IMO. Too many condos here, and rents are high in general. Seems to be lots of commercial space available too.
I hope you will do a smaller city posting soon, but maybe smaller markets won’t be too remarkable until Van, T.O and Calgary really fall?

#111 DON on 06.03.16 at 1:35 am

My take:

Calgary prices sticky
Vancouver still high balling
Calgary prices start to slide (a year ahead of Vancouver)
Oil creep to other bustling centers.
Calgary prices gain downside momentum.
Vancouverites take notice and potential buyers get spooked or just plain leave for other opportunities.
Vancouver prices sticky at first – but then again Calgary is well on its way and the path have been unveiled (by now people are paying attention). Panic ensues in Vancouver, people try to beat each other to the exits, Realtors start to unload their spec properties to beat the rush. The slide takes less time in Vancouver. Much like ‘The Big Short’ – things start to happen as people become more aware of the fraud. Sentiment turns.

Of course other factors could come into play but not a bustling economy – not until the pain has been felt at very least.

#112 Vangrrl on 06.03.16 at 1:49 am

Yesterday on Facebook a friend in Van (rents in Kitts) posted about how their real estate agent has suggested ‘perhaps’ they keep renting- and buy an investment property! They pay a little over 2 grand rent a month for a 2 bedroom main floor of a house with yard and walking distance to Kitts beach- 2 kids aged 8 and 6. The kids go to schools in the area. She posted ‘renting is no longer an option’. I imagine the pressure is immense.
I was the only person on the thread not bemoaning along with her or suggesting neighbourhoods ‘in their budget’. Ugh.
I told her (again) to read greaterfool. They’ve held out this long. Seems like the very worst time to give in.

#113 jay on 06.03.16 at 1:58 am

Can you imagine you don’t even have to put your SIN number on real estate form when you declare you’re a Canadian Citizen when buying and selling real estate in B.C. http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-time-to-end-the-honour-system-in-b-c-property-purchases?google_editors_picks=true

#114 Russ on 06.03.16 at 3:23 am

macroman on 06.02.16 at 10:55 pm
$4 pints at the Yacht club while watching the sailing races. This place blows.

Speaking of blows, is there a pool on smoking man pulling a Hunter Thompson?
======================

I’m in.
Start with early 2017 but we gotta have multiples.
I need to hedge when Smokie starts to bet on this.

This could be the final chapter he was looking for. Sweet!

#115 Love My Kia on 06.03.16 at 3:36 am

Not going to work and sitting on your assets in Vancouver makes you on averages $126/hr

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1962014/vancouver-house-owners-made-more-sitting-their-assets-entire?utm_source=&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=SCMPSocialNewsfeed

#116 Mark M. on 06.03.16 at 4:02 am

#57-WalMark of Sadkatoon-“the US is BOOOOMING!”

0.8% GDP. It’s truly remarkable.

#117 Delusional YVR on 06.03.16 at 4:23 am

Thus far 3 stories, “a friend, of a friend”, townhome etc. sold for more in YVR by $150K over…etc., ad nauseum.

If that is true, then how does the average SFH price drop by 10% in YVR, in a month? Clearly, your observation mattered SQUAT.

And Mr. “30% up and 30% down” is that a crash?

Just means that you should have left your money in a Savings Account since a return of 0.15% > 0%.

Diversified YVR economy is now subject to every Major Sector GDP going negative. This means, as Garth points out, job losses.

No job. No mortgage. No payments. Market prices drop.

In YVR, they will not be sticky. Ridiculously high debt levels will see to that…people will bail, and fast to monetize any gains they have made…last person holding the bag mentality.

#118 nubbers on 06.03.16 at 4:55 am

Heisenberg @7

But I’ll always invest in real estate. Stocks and any financial products based on stocks are nothing but air. They have the true potential of a bubble bursting. I’ve had stocks literally disappear, but the same has never happened of a house.

If you are in a position buy a house with cash, then yes, it is hard for it to go to zero, although not impossible.

Most of us, however, have to take out a mortgage to buy a house. The leverage makes it possible to go very, very much worse than zero, as I found out 23 years ago and as anyone who has recently overpaid in Vancouver or Toronto are about to find out.

#119 waiting on the westcoast on 06.03.16 at 5:16 am

Looks like Trudeau was schooled in Japan… hopefully he can put aside the arrogance that he (and the Libs) know better and do what Canada needs to be successful in the future… look at the great results in the US and the UK…

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/the-g7-didnt-buy-trudeaus-big-deficit-growth-plan-neither-should-we&pubdate=2016-06-03

#120 Shawn on 06.03.16 at 5:37 am

Don’t try this at home?

Someone above said:

Stocks and any financial products based on stocks are nothing but air. They have the true potential of a bubble bursting. I’ve had stocks literally disappear, but the same has never happened of a house.

***********************************
That’s why most people with any amount of money go with blue chip type stocks in a diversified portfolio, often with professional help.

Stock investing is not usually about trying to win the lottery on some penny stock.

Because some stocks go to zero does not mean they do on average. Check what the DOW is up since inception.

Most people believe both: 1. Companies are making too much profit and 2. stock investing is gambling and most lose money on it. On point 1 they may be correct but point 2 is wrong and would contradict point 1 if true.

#121 Ontario's Left Coast on 06.03.16 at 6:12 am

We knew this one was coming…

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/06/02/canadian-household-debt-chart-bmo_n_10266552.html?utm_hp_ref=canada

#122 Dan Duran on 06.03.16 at 7:44 am

While bears have been day-dreaming about the imminent crash, prices for detacheds in some Toronto neighborhoods just went up another 10% in one month. The crash needs to be that much bigger now. Keep dreaming. And banks want the gubernment to increase down payment another 5%? I have news for you: the folks paying 1.8 mil for a teardown don’t go through CMHC and probably don’t even take a mortgage. What segment are they looking to cool down? Probably the 2-300k condos (still plenty of those up for sale).

#123 fancy_pants on 06.03.16 at 7:46 am

hilarious. epic proportions of hot RE and they will sit around and discuss what type of sprinkler to implement to cool the flames. same old same old. party on.

#124 maxx on 06.03.16 at 7:49 am

“About all the rest of us can do now is offer prayers and condolences. ”

Nope. Pas moi. Perspective, insight and lessons learned almost always come at a price.

The only but least favourite solution to our economic woes is for tptb to immediately remove the buckles of damaging low rates, chop the cojones off of CMHC, end stupidly low down payments and allow free market forces to once again determine pricing levels. Realtards can find work at coffee shops and/or rot on the vine.

Unlike the US, we have little economic diversity and as many on the blog have said before, we’re (for the moment) largely surviving on selling re to each other. That potato can go ’round and ’round and where it stops is when jobs and salaries hit train-wreck bottoms.

We’re solidly beyond abort on that trajectory and are now eating each other’s lunches. Even realtards. The main thing that moves re money now is house horniness and FOMO. Gee, that’s healthy.

As for the bank of Mom and Dad, you can, for the most part, kiss your “investments” goodbye and watch your cruise ship sail off into the sunset. Your spawn won’t love you any more for your largesse and they won’t be any more “protected” because of it.

#125 maxx on 06.03.16 at 7:57 am

#4 TRUMP on 06.02.16 at 7:11 pm

“WINTERPEG!!!!!

Not even if hell froze over.”

Awwww….come on. It’s a pretty sweet place – buy a vintage home in River Heights, enjoy the amazing arts scene as well as the incredible number of annual days of sunshine and spend winter in the tropics.
‘Peggers are lovely people – two of our best years were spent there.

#126 maxx on 06.03.16 at 7:59 am

#5 Mimi on 06.02.16 at 7:12 pm

“Does it matter that Canadian residents are spread thin? Will real estate in the GTA and Vancouver fall if it’s anyways just a place for foreign investors to stash their ‘blood money’?”

Interesting point. But hey, we have no blood diamonds. :-)

#127 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.03.16 at 8:16 am

We are seeing significant pressure on our local Kelowna real estate consequential to the Vancouver market. I would not say that HAM has been such an influence here, although it has made it’s presence evident, as those Vancouverites being displaced by high Vancouver prices seeking refuge here in Kelowna. They bring with them the dynamic that is now too commonplace in Vancouver – bidding wars, offers over list, etc. It’s their norm and becoming ours.

Whatever the motivation for HAM the fact is the population of this planet has gone from 1 billion to over 7 billion in the past 100 alone of mans estimated 200,000 year existence. What do we expect? It’s all about supply and demand. Economics is the backstory of all history and demographics is the backstory of all economics.

This “bubble” is different than the last. This “bubble” is due in large part to external sources of demand.

Politicians are afraid to address it. The domestic population in Vancouver with strong Asian ties is huge. It would be political suicide to mess with their socioeconomic interests. Not only that but too quell the impetus behind the hot Vancouver real estate market (whatever it might be) could have disastrous consequences for the economy. Government is hogtied.

So when will this end? Will it end? Many say there is no end in sight. We know nothing lasts forever, but that does not mean something might have longer legs than anything else we have experienced.

Kelowna, Victoria and other B.C. communities are feeling the pressure as their local real estate markets advance beyond expectation. Wherever the phenomena prevails it seems few are concerned with the fundamentals behind it as they are with the opportunities it brings. More concerning and increasingly more evident are the mounting woes.

Residential investment property owners, hobbled by meagre opportunity to increase rents under the B.C. Residential Tenancy Legislation, are seeing the increased market value of their properties as opportunity to get out of the Landlord business. The new owner are displacing tenants literally putting them out on the street as Kelowna’s vacancy rate now stands at less than 1.0% none can find alternate accommodation.

The house horny feverish demand of first time buyers who fear if they don’t buy now they will be priced out of home ownership forever has pushed the market value of delapitated shacks once hard pressed to achieve sale prices of more than $350,000 to over $500,000 as that segment of the market has little more than a 1 months worth of inventory. Move up the property ladder and things change fast but change is the operative word.

Recently Kelowna homes priced $750,000 to $1mil have been seeing a lot of activity. Most of the buyers are from the Lower Mainland of the Province (Vancouver). Water cooler talk in real estate offices is about this recent Vancouverite or that who sold out for huge $$$, moved here spent 1/3 of their windfall and banked the rest for early retirement. How long can that last? Is THIS the new economy?

Housing most certainly is a key component of our economic engine but don’t people as some point in that chain need to have jobs to be able to fuel it? Where are those jobs?

Kelowna is becoming renowned for it’s high tech sector which typically pays well. Kelowna has always attracted people for it’s lifestyle, mostly a vacation lifestyle but becoming increasingly a retirement destination and that retirement does not come at 65, let alone 55, for most who relocate here. Money moves here. If you’ve got the glue this it seems is where you want to be. Awesome Skiing (snow in winter water in summer), mountains, lakes, clean air… it (The Okanagan Valley) truly is a “four seasons playground”. But for how much longer?

Already traffic in this City of almost 200,000 rivals that of Greater Vancouver (a city of 2.5mil). Where Kelowna’s population would double in summer putting pressure on the transportation system now it deals with that pressure all year long. The reprieve the new Bennett bridge provided has been short lived as the population of West Kelowna (formerly Westbank) now exceeds the population of Penticton (the next largest city to the South).

So what’s my point… simple….

Economics is the backstory of all history and demographics is the backstory of all economics. As long as we keep piling more bodies on this planet we’re going to see an increased demand for land. I don’t think anyone really wants to instigate an intentional cull much less be a consequence of one. We all strive to survive. (backdrop soundtrack Stayin Alive) Ooo, Ooo, Ooo, Ooo… Staying Alive… Staying Alive. Ooo, Ooo, Ooo, Ooo… Staying Alive… Staying Alive

#128 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.03.16 at 8:24 am

Sorry no time to proof read and edit };-)

#129 suburbancoyoteandpup on 06.03.16 at 8:26 am

First time poster, been reading for a couple of years. Garth your blog is a Canadian treasure. I hope I haven’t waited too long: working on severing an infill lot from my property in 905 and negotiating with builders. This dog wants a smaller den.

On51

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.16 at 8:28 am

@#50 Devils Advocate

So excited at the thought of working for Satan you hit the “send” button a tad prematurely?
Understandable in your line of work with its exorbitant commission based fees.
@#51 Devils Advocate.
Ah yes. You’d “love the oppourtunity to take the Devil on as a client so that you could “influence him”. Wow! Apparently you’d be the first person since this man to control the Devil.

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DtDNCkcC47eQ&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiYg6m-7YvNAhVC_WMKHdecAk0QtwIIIDAF&usg=AFQjCNEMTOjYvmNq60kiIIVPj6o8UVQ9ZQ

Endlessly working the client for an upsell? Classy. But understandable in your commission based fee line of work .
I, on the other hand, choose the easier route.
I have refused to work for people that I knew were corrupt or morally lacking. Sometimes I actually got to tell them why in the exit interview with HR people stilling right next to them….
( Lets just say they either left the company very soon after me NOT of their own free will OR were demoted).

But thats me.

You just keep schlepping those homes to the rubes who’s “lives YOUR improving” while I sleep comfortably every night.

Say hi to Satan for me.

#131 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 06.03.16 at 8:44 am

#106 AisA on 06.03.16 at 12:49 am

I see people like you in every economic cycle. You wait for the bottom to fall out. “Why buy now when you can buy for so much less tomorrow”. Even when the correction takes place, you wait and wait and wait. When the markets do head back up you say “It’s just a Dead Cat Bounce”. Eventually when the markets go exponential as they are today you maintain your tune “It’s going to “CRASH” 50 maybe 60%”. But it never does. Yet somehow you stick to the regime dictated you by your own internal house horniness thinking “I’m smarter than everyone else. I can’t afford these prices but that will change and I will come out the victor amongst a world of losses.”

Get over it. Ain’t gonna happen. Oh yes the market will correct at some point but not nearly so much as you hope for. You are speculating AisA, you are gambling. You can’t time the markets. You don’t have a crystal ball.

There are over 7 billion people on this planet and most all of them want what we have here in North America – a Disneyland lifestyle. Why wouldn’t they. Really we’ve got it made in the shade, so much so that we have time to be concerned about our environment, our feelings, and so many other hypocritical altruistic issues while most of the world is trying to stay alive and survive.

Don’t think yourself so much more in tune than anyone else on this exhilarating Disneyland rollercoaster ride. You are the same as most. Clearly you want a bigger piece of the pie than you are currently entitled. Your strategy to get it is flawed. Contrary to popular beiief not all comes to those who wait as more often than not life passes them by.

Just admit it; you are as house horny as any.

#132 WallOfWorry on 06.03.16 at 8:45 am

US jobs number is anemic….do we still see the rate hike in June? I thought that the US was booming?

#133 Contrarian Coyote on 06.03.16 at 8:48 am

#75 Lulu on 06.02.16 at 10:34 pm
Saw this today about Aussie, very similar to our real estate prices or even more fierce, BUT look what happen in one of their suburb.. Kid you not if that happen in T dot or Vancity….. OH MY LORD!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_ktN_h7-J4

Ouch. I wonder if / when this will hit T-Dot. The leverage on that young woman in the video is crazy high.

On a related note, I’ve got family in the admin side of real estate here in the Kawarthas, and it’s frothy with sales. Some are people from T-Dot cashing out and buying here.

Said she’s never seen so many sales go over asking in the Kawarthas and the calls/traffic from GTA are quite noticeable. Luckily, the wife and I are still happily renting.

#134 Unionized Teacher on 06.03.16 at 8:51 am

#41 Lead Paint: you contradict yourself, you admit that conspirators would only hurt their own “stake”. The only stake that presumably they would not want to hurt is of a financial nature. That is why there has to be a payment award for being a validator. Whether bitcoin or some other digital “coin” method plays that role does not matter, but there is nothing else than bitcoin today that can play that role and this is why blockchain depends on bitcoin. Without the integrated financial reward, clearly validators may have nothing to lose by cheating. If you as an ordinary person are going to put your faith in a blockchain you are trusting the unknown validators to not pool their computing powers and validate nonsense information (including erasing your transactions from the chain or ignoring them). Even if they get rewarded in bitcoin or such, that does not mean they will behave honest; attackers may have other motives for cheating, without caring about hurting their bitcoin value.

In short, you are naive and uninformed. Clearly, you hold bitcoins, which is why you are pitching blockchains. I hope you bought your bitcoins early on at a low value. Or could it be you are one of the greater fools?

#135 RP on 06.03.16 at 8:59 am

In 2003 a 4 bedroom cottage in this East Coast USA city cost $195K by 2009 in was $500K. In 2011 $225K. The drop caught a lot of people by surprise because this time is was different and prices would never go down

#136 ole Doberman on 06.03.16 at 9:05 am

Wow this is awkward only 38k jobs created in the US
Massive miss
Kiss rate hikes good bye

#137 TRT on 06.03.16 at 9:08 am

No rate hike in USA this year.

Brexit, Jobs data, fed election, etc.

USA purposely missed their chance a few years ago.

Long live asset bubbles. More QE to come. Buy buy buy.

#138 Randy on 06.03.16 at 9:09 am

All the markets are a cesspool of illegal activity and corruption.
The political system is corrupt. THE MSM is corrupt.
Everything is bastardized.
Real Debt is being artificially suppressed right around the world.
Short everything in this epic Hyper-Bubble. Yield curve is flat.
Welcome to ” Delusional Reality “. Living on the Edge. It’s all Illusion.
Quantitative easing has never stopped and it will never stop.

#139 CJBob on 06.03.16 at 9:09 am

One of the first rules of investing in equities is that market timing is almost impossible even for the pros. You’re best to invest in low fee ETF’s and stay in for the long term as part of a balanced portfolio as our host has stated repeatedly.

It’s pretty funny then, when you think about it, that people here are constantly trying to time the housing market and have been wrong year after year after year.

It’s true it can’t and won’t keep going up like this every year. It’s also true it’s impossible to predict when it will end. Garth’s right that interest rate increases will effect housing but people have been wrong trying to time rate increases as well for the last 8 years.

Carry on.

#140 Smoking Man on 06.03.16 at 9:13 am

#132 WallOfWorry on 06.03.16 at 8:45 am
US jobs number is anemic….do we still see the rate hike in June? I thought that the US was booming?
…………

The FX market has just said NO WAY, brutal shit kicking this morning on my bet

#141 Tony on 06.03.16 at 9:15 am

Re: #132 WallOfWorry on 06.03.16 at 8:45 am

Like I’ve been saying all along the next move in U.S. interest rates is downward.

#142 Bottoms_Up on 06.03.16 at 9:16 am

#120 Shawn on 06.03.16 at 5:37 am
—————————-
To the comment you were commenting on. But it is also true houses can go to zero (fire, tornado, expropriation, crazy neighbours move in, or crumbling economy such as Detroit etc.).

And stocks are definitely not “worth zero”. The ones that pay a dividend are worth at least what their dividend payments are over time. The growth stocks are worth something because of their potential for future dividends.

#143 Lead Paint on 06.03.16 at 9:17 am

#134 Unionized Teacher on 06.03.16 at 8:51

I do not own but will be buying 1 it 2 to start. I’m much more excited about blockchains potential to change the world than I am about bitcoin.

Do some more research, blockchain does not need bitcoin, Etherium is a blockchain platform with its own cryptocurrency and zero dependency on bitcoin.

I’m happy to have a dialogue on this with you but not if it’s clear you have no interest in learning or discussing the core underlying technologies under consideration. Please understand the difference between blockchain and bitcoin before misleading people further.

#144 Island Millenial on 06.03.16 at 9:17 am

“…as FOMO foments…”

Ha! Love it.

#145 Billy on 06.03.16 at 9:23 am

Well the ham has spread up the coast from van. They bought every business in site. Lineup for homes.
To bad for realt bears.
Its going to continue and the stock market will stay stuck.
Gold is good

#146 Wow on 06.03.16 at 9:24 am

With 13,000 deals in the Toronto area last month, this means 26,000 agents each got to close a deal. That’s 24 deals a year for most agents. At a million a house that is $600,000 in commissions earned by a reasonably busy agent in a year. It appears these guys are pulling in hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. So keep laughing at them and calling the Realtards. And you expect them to be honest.

Also, sellers are making more profit on their houses in a year in price appreciation than a doctor earns in income. Some married couples are actually having fake separations so they can have two matrimonial homes to accrue tax free gains. So keep enjoying your 6.3% gains on your balanced portfolio that you invested your $50,000 down payment in that would have gone into a house and you can keep renting the condo that your landlord is subsidizing you on while he makes $200,000 in tax free gains on a year while you pay his mortgage. Keep waiting fools. You will be old and grey before things turn. Even Garth is hedging his bets saying a crash might take seven years, and he isn’t even on the record saying anything will happen in Toronto.

#147 Q2 Class 2-B-C-2 Duplex Drive on 06.03.16 at 9:30 am

Hey Garth –

After viewing the disastrous US jobless numbers this AM, it appears I was right on the money with my call that the Fed would not be raising rates anytime soon. 38K/4.7% vs call of +160K/4.9%, with downward revisions in previous months cannot, in this universe at least, be spun as anything other than TERRIBLE. You may try to spin the drop in the jobless rate as good news – nice try, sir. It just means the denominator decreased as more Americans have simply given up looking for work.

The CAD dollar has gained a cent today and almost two full cents from yesterday AM. All your brave talk of not one but two – TWO! – Fed hikes soon is just that – talk. I stand by my call – no rate hikes until 2017 at the earliest.

#148 Uncle Sam on 06.03.16 at 9:32 am

#98 BlackDog on 06.03.16 at 12:21 am

ooops…sucks there is no edit feature.

Should have wrote:

So, maybe Garth’s readers won’t sympathize with your more ‘American’ friends, but they should be supportive of the 100’s of thousands of fellow Canadians with long ago, tenuous US connection, who have recently discovered (or will soon) that the US considers them ‘tax cheats’ while the Canadian government is helping to smoke them out.


It’s US laws… they can do what they want… they have always had worldwide taxation … born there you are a US citizen.. it’s very clear. ..now they are being more rigorous in enforcing it that is all..

My son has same issue….he wants to keep the citizenship.. so he files his US taxes…. it’s really not complicated to complete the US returns and he’s never had to pay anything.

Renounce or pay up. President Trump is gonna be pissed if you don’t.

#149 cramar on 06.03.16 at 9:36 am

June’s out for a Fed rate hike and July’s on life support, analysts say.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/junes-out-for-a-fed-rate-hike-and-julys-on-life-support-analysts-say-2016-06-03

Blame it on anemic job growth!

#150 Steerage Bilge on 06.03.16 at 9:44 am

Hey smoking dude….the CADUSD just jumped 1%… bam..
I assume you predicted that during last nights copious drinking binge and laid a huge bet in time!

#151 Mark M. on 06.03.16 at 10:00 am

Really curious now Garth and Dogs, what do we think two or three rate hikes this year?

I really think WalMark should have to explain this.

#152 Wild albertan gonads on 06.03.16 at 10:13 am

Well so much for the rate hike this year. Poof! Crazy stuff.

#153 Dina Stylles on 06.03.16 at 10:16 am

Canada 30 year bond is 1.85% this morning. New lows everyday.

#154 Rational Optimist on 06.03.16 at 10:21 am

85 rainclouds on 06.02.16 at 11:15 pm

‘Few years ago was chairing a conference call, the Albertans commenced bickering about Edmonton vs Calgary I finally had to tell them “nobody cares” . Found out later Dude in Chicago found it amusing. He wanted to know where Alberta was.’

That was hilarious- thanks a lot for the laugh!

#155 Ole Doberman on 06.03.16 at 10:24 am

“The reactions in markets on the Non Farm Payroll is becoming old school. Corporate profits can rise with rising unemployment within a trend of this nature. Yes, people will find that they MUST improve their skills to find a job in the future. Schools are nowhere capable of addressing this shift for most still do not teach computer programming or emphasize computers in any way.

We have entered a period where what use to be down is now up. We are going to have to pay attention to what numbers really mean to ascertain the future trend.”

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/upside-down-statistics-what-is-down-maybe-up/

#156 BS on 06.03.16 at 10:27 am

#122 Dan Duran on 06.03.16 at 7:44 am

While bears have been day-dreaming about the imminent crash, prices for detacheds in some Toronto neighborhoods just went up another 10% in one month. The crash needs to be that much bigger now.

People are so naive to think when a bubble inflates that somehow builds a base of support. Prices could go up 3 fold in the next year and the correction will still come back to the starting point of the bubble. The more the bubble inflates the larger the over correction below fundamental values.

#157 BS on 06.03.16 at 10:36 am

Just doing some quick calculation on how long it would take for my landlord to pay off the place I rent if all my rent minus condo maintenance fees and property tax went to principle.

The place is valued at $1.3 million. Net rent is $18700 per year. A yield of 1.4%.

The landlord would get his money back in 70 years without factoring in opportunity cost or mortgage interest of the $1.3 million and other special assessments, maintenance, etc. The building will not even be standing in 70 years. Could there be a more insane investment?

#158 AfterTheHouseSold on 06.03.16 at 10:42 am

#78 Preferred Shares …
“Your examples of the 5 piles in ETF’s …”

We have discussed the ‘5 piles in ETF’s’ post here in past. There has been some confusion/discrepancy with it when compared to Garths other portfolio posts:

15 May 2014 “The Millennial Portfolio” (ETF weightings)

21 November 2014 “Trust” (specific ETF examples for millennials)

These posts include an ETF for international exposure.

My kids portfolios look like this:

60% Equity:
XSP (S&P 500)
XIU (Canadian TSX)
XIN (International)
XRE (REITS)

40% Fixed:
XSB (Short Bonds)
CPD (Preferred)
XPF (Preferred)

An example only, not intended as advice.

#159 IHCTD9 on 06.03.16 at 10:45 am

Sales are running 35% above the 10-year average. More houses sold last month than any previous May on record. The benchmark price for all types of properties is $889,000, up 29.7% in a year. Condos are 22.3% more expensive. Town houses are up 25%. The benchmark price for detached is now $1.51 million, which is 36.9% more than last year.

————————————————————

One person conditioned to rule and control
The media sells it and you live the role

Mental wounds still screaming
Driving me insane

I’m goin’ off the rails on a crazy train
I’m goin’ off the rails on a crazy train

#160 AisA on 06.03.16 at 10:49 am

#131 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 06.03.16 at 8:44 am

So now the gamblers are the people who do not put their money on the roulette table?

That’s ridiculous. Do you actually believe the stuff you wrote or are you just maintaining a sale face? You may have misread my post. I clearly explained why there is no logical reason to buy the average anything anywhere right now.

I want more than I currently deserve you say? What dictates what the seller “deserves”. Lame pot calling the kettle black on that one.

People like me will only buy when there is a long term logical reason to do so. I know it’s impossible to believe from your perspective. I just don’t want to lose tons at the peak of the bubble. I don’t give a hoot if the home I buy appreciates in value. I actually know how to work and stuff to make money. I’m interested in reasonable shelter, not looking for a lotto ticket.

Would you play a lottery where the prize is 500k and the ticket costs 1.4 million???

#161 not 1st on 06.03.16 at 10:53 am

And with that, Ol Yellen can return to her tower and sit on her hands for the next 2 years. They are DONE. Guess you can only hire so many people to clean hotels and take drive through orders. Talk about misreading the economy. US recession is imminent and long overdue.

Trump is the presumed president now. Hillary is going to be indicated.

#162 Ace Goodheart on 06.03.16 at 11:03 am

RE: ” Buyers smell blood, and are waiting.” – Garth

Not in Toronto. Detached house in my ‘hood just sold in three days, intense bidding war. Going to find out how much over asking this one went for. The “for sale” signs are up and then down so fast, really if a buyer is not on MLS ever single day, they are going to miss them. I think the only lag-time for the sales now, is the time it takes to hold an “offers accepting” day (and even those are often derailed by early “bully bids”).

Yeah, sit on the sidelines in Toronto and pretend you “smell blood”. One thing I can tell you, is if you do that, you will never be able to buy a house here.

The statement was about Calgary. Duh. — Garth

#163 Ronaldo on 06.03.16 at 11:08 am

#128 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 06.03.16 at 8:24 am

Sorry no time to proof read and edit };-)
==============================
Sorry, no time to read it.

#164 SWL1976 on 06.03.16 at 11:10 am

What are the odds now on one of the biggest criminal organizations on earth raising rates???

There’s a lot of stock here put into what the FED has to say. Yet, each and every time they talk, then baulk at raising rates, they loose more and more credibility. More than just us ‘tinfoil hatters’ realize the system is completely rigged and the books are completely cooked.

Either way the current trajectory of or financial system is about to become very real. Raise rates and it all comes crashing down, don’t raise rates and it all comes crashing down.

Prepare accordingly.

We as a society have put way too much stock in the criminal organizations the govern our money and write our laws. I understand the average Jill or Joe doesn’t want to believe that they have been manipulated and lied to, to the magnitude that we have. But, we have. It happened. The lies are real, and still happening. Look no further than the current Presidential race in the biggest ‘Free’ Country on earth for proof of just how messed up things really are.

We the sheeple are being led to slaughter.

I understand why most prefer delusion we are being fed, to reality we are living.

#165 Frenzy and Frothy on 06.03.16 at 11:22 am

Frenzy in Richmond (suburb of Vancouver)…
Eighty buyers began camping out in mid-May for sales opening in mid-June for the Kingsley Estates. Only 30 units were for sale.
The townhouse units incidentally were selling for $1.2 million.
Full story..
http://www.news1130.com/2016/06/02/prospective-buyers-shut-out-of-townhome-sales-in-richmond/

I’m not sure how the guy interviewed comes up with this tidbit though…“I found that very annoying, thinking the local people who are interested are just getting bypassed by another group that Polygon has brought in to look at the place.” Seems like someone is implying foreign buyers…possibly jumping on the bandwagon and playing a blame game without evidence or facts presented.

#166 Q1 Duplex Drive 4-6-4-4 Type on 06.03.16 at 11:26 am

#146 Wow on 06.03.16 at 9:24 am:

Traders always talk up their position. You shouldn’t be quite so obvious.

#167 Lee on 06.03.16 at 11:35 am

After the House Sold,

Exactly how I structure mine. Except I also have some CNR and some bank stock.

#168 Unionized Teacher on 06.03.16 at 11:45 am

#134 as I said, and you confirm, blockchains need a digital financial reward system to provide incentives for honest validation behaviour. Whether that is Bitcoin or something else does not matter. All of these digital payment systems are flawed in their own right, and the only reason they exist is because greedy opportunistic speculators are investing in them in the hope that all the hype will drive up their price. Regardless of that, if you only have an interest in blokchains, you should ask yourself: why not have validation by known entities subject to regulation, as opposed to anonymous validators that you have to trust not to misbehave and if they do you have no recourse? I am sorry, but you seem to be clueless about the technical workings of Bitcoin, altcoins, blockchains, and so forth. There may be a housing bubble in Canada, but what is happening with blockchains, bitcoin, and similar proposals today is far beyond a bubble, these are giant schemas not unlike pyramid and ponzi schemes. Either you are part of those who understand that and try to profit from that, or you are one of the suckers who will be taken advantage of; either way, I pity you. The fact that you actually believe in the Ethereum hype speaks volumes by itself.

#169 doom on 06.03.16 at 12:10 pm

amazed at how quickly western society is spiraling downward. moral collapse. check. economic collapse. imminent – held together by thin facade of wealth covering immense debt. most fools don’t see it. chaos is not far off the horizon

#170 macroman on 06.03.16 at 12:18 pm

Like I said, one and done. Sorry Garth, you just have to come clean like SM with his Cando call…it sucked.

I sign off for Russ, Last!

SMHT02/17

#171 fancy_pants on 06.03.16 at 12:23 pm

coming to our home turf. how soon or long is the only variable

http://endtimeheadlines.org/2016/06/8-lessons-that-we-can-learn-from-the-epic-economic-meltdown-in-venezuela/

#172 family beagle on 06.03.16 at 12:25 pm

Calls it on US job #’s
(It’s my lil obsession.)

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/05/25/the-justifying/#comment-450794
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/05/26/too-scary-2/#comment-450936
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/05/31/peak-house-2/#comment-451772

#173 Ogopogo on 06.03.16 at 12:35 pm

#47 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 06.02.16 at 8:50 pm
#140 You built that, and it’s Crrrrrap! on 06.02.16 at 11:24 am

Sorry for the delayed response. Yes REALTOR.ca is crap. But again the MLS® is a SYSTEM we built for our own internal use. REALTOR.ca is simply something we provide to appease the disgruntled (public) masses. BTW it used to be MLS.ca but we changed it to better protect the registered trademark MLS®

Notice the contempt this despicable Kelowna shill uses to describe his clients. What a heap of useless, uneducated protoplasma This from a “profession” that enjoys a status just a notch above brothel janitor.

Will anyone shed a tear when these animals are eventually put to pasture as more people wake up to the realtor scam-industry?

#174 IHCTD9 on 06.03.16 at 12:38 pm

Well, 2016 is starting to look pretty much like another go nowhere year.

Days start getting shorter in 2.5 weeks…

I’m beginning to forget what things were like prior to 2008.

#175 bdwy sktrn on 06.03.16 at 12:39 pm

#157 BS on 06.03.16 at 10:36 am
Just doing some quick calculation on how long it would take for my landlord to pay off the place I rent …

The place is valued at $1.3 million. Net rent is $18700 per year. A yield of 1.4%.

The landlord would get his money back in 70 years
———————————–
but he probably paid 300k for the place, so he has a cool million to console his pain from your disapproval.

and if you are not BSing your rent is just a tad under market. i get almost that much from renting out my musty basement -of a house slightly more than 1.3.
if i rented the upper it would be 52,000/yr . cash.

if you are not rural w acreage i call BS on your #’s

#176 bdwy sktrn on 06.03.16 at 12:41 pm

#157 BS on 06.03.16 at 10:36 am
Just doing some quick calculation on how long it would take for my landlord to pay off the place I rent …

The place is valued at $1.3 million. Net rent is $18700 per year. A yield of 1.4%.

The landlord would get his money back in 70 years
————————
the other alternative is he sells the place this year. got boxes?

#177 Dan Duran on 06.03.16 at 12:50 pm

There was no bubble in the 80’s. The gubernment imagined it and pricked it with a double whammy of over-taxation and grossly high interest rates (12%!)… all of this while the world economy was going into recession. And what else did the gubernment do in response to the unfolding disaster? Record levels of deficits, federally and provincially that resulted in credit rating downgrades. Socialist policies in Ontario… then Quebec separation issue.. Had they let the real estate market to its own, the correction would have been milder and shorter, just like in the US at the time, we’d have had more supply through the 90’s and not face the pent-up demand of the the 2000’s.

Governments do not set interest rates nor govern monetary policy. — Garth

#178 Dan on 06.03.16 at 12:53 pm

Immigrants are imported in this country to lower wages of established citizens. Their kids have chances to better life. Bit still emptiness is depression, so to import 300.000.000 Chinese from overpopulated China will give China relief and this country would become developed
with more jobs, better infrastructure and better social system…

#179 Dan Duran on 06.03.16 at 12:55 pm

@Ace Goodheart In my neighborhood I counted 4 houses that sold without hitting the MLS – exclusive listings, did not notice any For Sale sign, looks like they just put up the Sold.. Another one went to a bully.. I would advise any seller to not take the bully offers, they routinely go for about 3% under comparables, very sneaky.. hard to say no, but you lose.

#180 Dan on 06.03.16 at 1:04 pm

Relax, Roman Empire did not collapse in short period of time. This western brutality of unregulated capitalism will last shorter because every next Empire last shorter.
The big cost advantage is stir trouble in foreign countries and get slaves for free. They pay for their own transportation while in Roman Time you have to rise an army, capture slaves, transport them, keep ’em in good health until you sell them. So cheap slaves maintain capitalist economy… You still have advantage to hire ’em, pay them low wages and tell them citizenship will wait on them at the end of tunell. Heck some guys even visits nannies in they basement suits for free….

#181 IHCTD9 on 06.03.16 at 1:06 pm

#173 Ogopogo on 06.03.16 at 12:35 pm

Notice the contempt this despicable Kelowna shill uses to describe his clients. What a heap of useless, uneducated protoplasma This from a “profession” that enjoys a status just a notch above brothel janitor.

__________________________________

That is some first class, grade A ass-ripping right there!

#182 Dan Duran on 06.03.16 at 1:10 pm

@BS I know what you say about returning to the start of the bubble. It holds more true in the stock market then in the housing market. Because in RE you have demographic trends (always upward in big cities), gentrification, emotional attachment etc.. it’s not all about the dollars. Stock market players are all speculators.

#183 Freedom First on 06.03.16 at 1:11 pm

#106 AisA

Yes. Good thinking. I’ve owned 2 properties. I’ll buy with a 55% drop, but the home must be in a nice area, renovated, and have new appliances, same as before.

Also, I have no interest in being a landlord. Fits my Freedom First lifestyle of keeping it simple. I live in the building and Home is wherever I happen to live.

Right now, in Canada, Liquidity and cashflow are King.

#184 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.03.16 at 1:12 pm

Hope President Trump gets rid of the FED.
Most useless institution on the planet.

#185 Toothless Measures on 06.03.16 at 2:03 pm

Yawn…..

Another nugget dangled in the face of long time renters hoping for a price correction to string them along for another year of waiting.

Lets add this to the list of ‘measures’ designed to ‘cool’ the market. That list being:
– elimination of the zero down/40 year amortization
– elimination of the 35 year amortization
– changed HELO withdrawal ratios
– messing around with bank capitalizations
– new 2016 down payment rules
– etc, etc, etc

Hmmm….none of these domestic policy changes have done anything. In fact, they actually stimulated the market in advance of their pending implementations.

Oh, and if they every have the wherewithal to actually implement a new down payment rule, it will be in a couple of years after extensive consultation with the real estate industry and banks.

And then you can expect the market to surge even higher in advance of the implementation of such rules, just like we saw this Spring.

These little nuggets really do give the renters hope and help keep the cash in those balanced portfolios.

#186 Preferred Shares.. what are some good ones? on 06.03.16 at 2:11 pm

#158 AfterTheHouseSold on 06.03.16 at 10:42 am

#78 Preferred Shares …
“Your examples of the 5 piles in ETF’s …”

We have discussed the ‘5 piles in ETF’s’ post here in past. There has been some confusion/discrepancy with it when compared to Garths other portfolio posts:

15 May 2014 “The Millennial Portfolio” (ETF weightings)

21 November 2014 “Trust” (specific ETF examples for millennials)

These posts include an ETF for international exposure.

My kids portfolios look like this:

60% Equity:
XSP (S&P 500)
XIU (Canadian TSX)
XIN (International)
XRE (REITS)

40% Fixed:
XSB (Short Bonds)
CPD (Preferred)
XPF (Preferred)

An example only, not intended as advice.
—————————————-

Thanks for the reply.

Think I understand the 60/40 weighting now. I suppose the five piles for ETF’s that garth suggests for TFSA IS ALREADY 60/40 weighted:

60% GROWTH (a) S&P500 (b) TSX60 (d) REIT’s
40% SAFE (e) CDN Bonds (c) Preferreds

Also, ETF’s are all indexed (no volatility) and have low fees so, long term growth is all but guaranteed, pending an asteroid strike. I think I need to “Set it and Forget it”.

Garth

#187 Preferred Shares.. what are some good ones? on 06.03.16 at 2:13 pm

Oops. My last comment seemed to end with ‘Garth’ Omit that. I was going to say something else but clicked Submit.

#188 S.Bby on 06.03.16 at 2:19 pm

#175 bdwy sktrn

you are way off base on your rent guess…
$1750 / 3br – 1200ft2 – 7977 Adera St Main Floor 3 bedroom (Marpole Area)

https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5579169869.html

#189 Lilly Hong on 06.03.16 at 2:27 pm

It does not matter what the U.S. Federal Reserve does with interest rates.

Interest rates are already dropping like a stone with 2, 5, 10, 30 year bonds are 0.776%, 1.234%, 1.703%, 2.519%.

The longest term 30 years were 4.7% to 4.8% about 6 years ago. They have all been cut by 48% to 65% since 2006 to 2007. The 10 years of interest rate cuts.

#190 Ace Goodheart on 06.03.16 at 2:30 pm

RE: The statement was about Calgary. Duh. — Garth

I believe the purpose of this most recent blog post was to make an indication that the same situation that is happening in Calgary, could also happen in Vancouver and Toronto. My point is Calgary’s predicament is situational. They have lost their oil industry. At some point they may get it back, but for now it is mostly gone. Those companies remaining, are operating at a loss.

RE: Empty offices = no jobs. And this was the beating heart of our country – Calgary, are you kidding me? Branch plant, one horse economy. Take away the oil and it’s a ghost town.

#191 WallOfWorry on 06.03.16 at 2:34 pm

Over $10 trillion in sovereign debt now trades with negative yields….yup…everything is fine…other than Canadian real estate!

#192 Snoopy on 06.03.16 at 2:54 pm

Today the CEO of Canadian Western Bank says the government has to tighten rules.

It wouldn’t hurt to create Twitter accounts to encourage @Bill_Morneau to tighten the rules. Maybe Garth can pick the hashtag. #MorneauRiskControl. How about that?

Something like:

@Bill_Morneau “Please tighten mortgage rules so Canada doesn’t blow up. Thank you.”

#193 Estrella on 06.03.16 at 2:55 pm

Humm…seeing a lot of smugness in the comments section about us job report. I find it ironic how so many smart people can miss something so obvious. I have concluded that people just read what they want to read ….but I ask them …if only 38k jobs were created ….if this number is believed that is….how did unemployment go down to 4.7%…Humm. well we will see oh wise ones…
Also interesting article below about the Vancouver debacle. .

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/vancouver-real-estate-mania/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialWarfare

#194 Trt on 06.03.16 at 3:21 pm

#151 Mark M. on 06.03.16 at 10:00 am
Really curious now Garth and Dogs, what do we think two or three rate hikes this year?

I really think WalMark should have to explain this.

——-

ZERO hikes this year! Special interests have placed their people in these “government” institutions – (See Canada). All the regulatory bodies here are run by special interests. We have an openly corrupt provincial government here in BC.

#195 Sunshine on 06.03.16 at 3:24 pm

Typo?
with that landmark Bow Valley tower not sitting a third empty.

now sitting

#196 Moist Millennial on 06.03.16 at 3:25 pm

Our building downtown Calgary is 1/3rd occupied on 19 floors. was 100% not too long ago. Our lease came up and word is we negotiated our cost plus a small margin for the REIT where we reside… Think one that recently cut its distribution to zero. Housing prices will come down much further. Headlines do not do justice.

Guy I know carrying two mortgages had their townhouse listed for 18 months. Initial list was 609k. Reduced big twice and eventually sold for 419k. easily would have sold above initial list previous to the downturn.

This isnt a one off story… Many are like this. Another coworker wants to sell a condo but doesnt want to take a hit of 50k on the original 250k she paid for it 2 years ago.

#197 Trt on 06.03.16 at 3:25 pm

More corruption in Surrey.

Apparently the only site for a second major hospital was sold off a few years back by the city for cheap.

Fast forward a few years and now there is ‘discussion’ that they need a site for a second hospital due to explosive population growth. Problem is the site they sold was the only one. Now the buyers want 6 times the original sell price.

Like these clowns weren’t all in on it from the beginning. Same thing happens with translink properties.

So don’t think the FED or BOC watches after you.

#198 moikests on 06.03.16 at 3:31 pm

#1 Randy on 06.02.16 at 7:06 pm

Winnipeg is owned and run by mosquitoe”

Well put, and don’t ye forget that the name is from the Cree name for Lake Winnipeg, 65 km north, win-nipi, meaning “murky water”….won’t be long with global warming before this hapless burgh gets renamed Zikapeg

#199 bdwy sktrn on 06.03.16 at 3:38 pm

#187 S.Bby on 06.03.16 at 2:19 pm
#175 bdwy sktrn

you are way off base on your rent guess…

——————–
take a closer look – it’s a basement suite.(main floor=garden level=you on the bottom)

rather bleak also.

still super cheap for westside, the youngsters want to be a little closer to the action though.

heres comm dr for 4000 month if you want the whole house http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5553279346.html
– by chance it shows a kitchen reno that i was a small part of a few owners back. had friends who owned it then.

one more for 3700 for a tiny beater too far to walk to the drive
http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5553279346.html

the great wall has FALLEN! comm dr is pulling higher rents than marpole! EAST SIIIIIDE!

#200 bdwy sktrn on 06.03.16 at 3:43 pm

corrected link

one more for 3700 for a tiny beater too far to walk to the drive

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5553279346.html

and ok unless you are pretty lazy, you can still walk to commercial

#201 bdwy sktrn on 06.03.16 at 3:44 pm

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5586970962.html – dammit!

#202 Jenny Smith on 06.03.16 at 3:45 pm

I know the Trudeau Liberals and Canada’s Finance Minister Morneau will not do this because they don’t have the courage to do the right thing but make it that the monthly mortgage payments must be based on 10% annual payments.

I believe it is currently 5.5% if I am not mistaken. This extra 4.5% on each $100,000 mortgage balance will really make a huge dent. This will do it because even if mortgage rates are 2%, they would still have to pay 10% annual mortgage payments.

An $800,000 mortgage balance for instance will mean a $6,667 monthly mortgage payment and add property taxes, utilities, insurance etc.

The Federal Liberal government will do something small if that and let this thing blowup when it does.

#203 bdwy sktrn on 06.03.16 at 3:53 pm

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5590778197.html

3400 upper – nice enough place , will be loud with broadway close by

+1500 for a 2br down easy in this bldg

=4900/mo

-prop taxes and insurance still well over 50k/yr

#204 Lead Paint on 06.03.16 at 3:57 pm

#168 Unionized Teacher on 06.03.16 at 11:45 am

“you should ask yourself: why not have validation by known entities subject to regulation, as opposed to anonymous validators that you have to trust not to misbehave and if they do you have no recourse?”

These systems exist, they are called fiat currencies. Cryptocurrencies were invented to overcome their short comings. This is cryptocurrency 101. This is like asking Elon Musk why he didn’t create an improved horse and buggy… it would be very hard for him to explain why he didn’t to you. You need to understand the basic technology to understand the beauty of its architecture, or why it’s created a certain way.

>>these are giant schemas not unlike pyramid and ponzi schemes

There are multiple reasons that these are not ponzi schemes, and you haven’t provided a single coherent reason why they are, outside of your conspiracy theory (Smoking Man, is this you I’m dealing with?). Firstly, they are OPEN SOURCE, which means any human on the planet, with appropriate education, can access all the logic and data in the entire system. A ponzi scheme relies on a single entity having far more knowledge than other participants, which is not possible with a proper blockchain.

Further, blockchain is distributed, so similar to above, no one entity can manipulate them or their data without everyone else noticing.

Good luck with the conspiracy theories. Yes, it’s new technology, but so was the car and the internet at some time, and they had a lot of nay sayers as well.

#205 Life among the Stars on 06.03.16 at 4:20 pm

#140 Smoking Man on 06.03.16 at 9:13 am

#132 WallOfWorry on 06.03.16 at 8:45 am
US jobs number is anemic….do we still see the rate hike in June? I thought that the US was booming?
…………

The FX market has just said NO WAY, brutal shit kicking this morning on my bet

Ouch.!!! epic.. SM opens the phone at dawn with the JD hangover pounding the alien brain and poof that $1M you had last week vanished!! WTF. With Forex …sleeping is not advisable. Ever! Well well drunk up and bet again!

Rates going nowhere. Schlong branch to the moon!

#206 BOOM! on 06.03.16 at 4:29 pm

US jobs data out. In a word, it sucks. So, the rate hike for June -gone! July looks quite iffy, if I may judge the trembling Janet of Yellin.

May as well ‘buy’ if that was your desire, your cheap money looks safe for the next few years.

In the meantime every day the market went piddley or red, my numbers went up, blame it on good old stock picking. Two duds, but they are minor matters in that mad money portfolio.

I like contrarians, they’re just so…loveable!

#207 Go Jets Go! on 06.03.16 at 4:40 pm

http://www.afr.com/news/economy/oecd-sees-dramatic-and-destabilising-end-to-property-boom-20160602-gpa5sf

#208 Brazil ex-pat on 06.03.16 at 4:44 pm

Why did you not post the link on Janet Yellen Garth? It was from CNBC. Same with Goldman Sachs firing 10% of its workers. How is that not relevant to a slowing economy and not raising rates? Biased maybe?

No, actually. I just don’t like you. — Garth

#209 Smoking Man on 06.03.16 at 5:06 pm

#205 Life among the Stars on 06.03.16 at 4:20 pm
#140 Smoking Man on 06.03.16 at 9:13 am

#132 WallOfWorry on 06.03.16 at 8:45 am
US jobs number is anemic….do we still see the rate hike in June? I thought that the US was booming?
…………

The FX market has just said NO WAY, brutal shit kicking this morning on my bet

Ouch.!!! epic.. SM opens the phone at dawn with the JD hangover pounding the alien brain and poof that $1M you had last week vanished!! WTF. With Forex …sleeping is not advisable. Ever! Well well drunk up and bet again!

Rates going nowhere. Schlong branch to the moon!
………………………

Serves me right for sleeping in on such an event driven day. Who saw this jobs report coming. I’m still up 80K 700 vanished in seconds. Still 100% gain vs money used to bet, all in one month. I’m hanging in. Oil is going to free fall next week.

#210 BeSmartRich on 06.03.16 at 5:26 pm

I came to Canada from South Korea about 9 years ago and graduated a university about 6 years ago. My wife and I rent a place nearby my work within a 10 minutes walking distance. We save about 60% of our monthly takehome pay and invest on our own. 40% is more than enough for us to enjoy good quality home meals with lots of fresh fruits, vegetables and meats and enough for renting a place nearby work.

We have accumulated net worth of about $170K and we have been investing in quality dividend &growth stocks and some ETFs. We can probably pay off 50% of a downtown 1+ den condo unit or at least down payment (which is crazy) of a townhouse in suburb of Toronto but we won’t.

It is really all about understanding the environment you are in and go with what you have to make the best out of it. I spoke no English when I first came but how the random Korean immigrant amassed $170K while maintaining the quality of life? The answer is simple.

Get yourself educated, be frugal, don’t go near to bubbled assets that you cannot afford and invest in quality ETFs (such as Vanguard and ishares) by maximizing TFSA and RRSP.

#211 AfterTheHouseSold on 06.03.16 at 5:46 pm

#186 Preferred Shares …
You need to add an ETF for international exposure (like XIN) to the equity portion of your portfolio. Thats what was confusing about ‘5 piles’ as it was not mentioned. Read the two blog posts that I included.

Also read ‘Millionaire Teacher’ by Andrew Hallam for an easy read introduction to ETFs and investing.

#212 family beagle on 06.03.16 at 7:00 pm

#193 Estrella on 06.03.16 at 2:55 pm
Humm…seeing a lot of smugness in the comments section about us job report. I find it ironic how so many smart people can miss something so obvious. I have concluded that people just read what they want to read ….but I ask them …if only 38k jobs were created ….if this number is believed that is….how did unemployment go down to 4.7%…Humm. well we will see oh wise ones…

Pre-stall flapping. They’re at ‘peak jobs’. It’s the Fed’s own chart.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE
History shows jobs are in for a sudden, steep drop.

#213 White Crock BC on 06.04.16 at 8:48 pm

I guess you know you know you’re small potatoes as a country when a forest fire lops 1.5% off of your GDP.

Maybe Trump will annex us and get it over with..

#214 Lisa on 06.05.16 at 10:44 am

Hey Garth! You, Doug and Ryan look so serious on your Turner Investments home page! Why no smiles?

I only smile when wearing my leathers. — Garth