Hating Garth

BERN

There are 108,706 realtors in Canada. That’s one for every 245 adults. Put end-to-end, they’d stretch from Calgary, past Red Deer and half way to Edmonton. It would not be pretty.

Anyway, in such a crowded field, marketing’s everything. Getting your listings out there in front of as many prospective buyers as possible is the difference between making your A7 lease payment this month or taking the bus. And, man, sellers have outrageous expectations after watching the house humpers on Global TV every night and reading the FOMO news releases pumped out by local boards. If no instant offers or bidding wars take place, the agent’s toast. You do what you have to in an eat-what-you-kill business.

Which brings us to Rhonda Davis.

Rhonda graduated from running a rags and baubles outlet in the Point Grey area of Van to flogging houses. Of herself she says, “My store clients know that I am an honest hard working, detail oriented agent, who will be their advocate from start to finish. Paying close attention to the details is what sets me apart in both retail and in real estate. Being down to earth, approachable, and honest, allows me to form long lasting relationships with the clients who I work for.”

Being detail-oriented and honest apparently doesn’t cut it in Van’s hyperbolic market however. So when a place doesn’t sell, what to do? Hey, you re-list it at a higher price, tell clients it’s a brand new listing, not a retread, goose the ad copy, and go to market!

Of course it’s always a good idea to take the old listing off your web site. Rhonda. Fail.

(Click image to enlarge)

Rhonda

Now to Sophie. “Part of me really hates you,” she says. “Instead of taking responsibility for my choices and sleeping in the bed I’ve laid, I blame you.  You used to be a politician, I figure you can take it.” Hey, I like this girl.

Well, you know the rest. Sophie (30s), hubs and two screamers live in Van, make $150,000 a year (like all old Millennials), have saved an equal amount, and have FOMO.

“While I have been a strong proponent of everything you are talking about we are faced with a dilemma.  The mania that has taken over YVR has spilt over into the rental market.  We looked at moving last year and rents have jumped almost 20% in a year.  Unfortunately we are in a school catchment zone that isn’t awesome and our oldest child is going to school next year.  So we are faced with a move.  We currently pay $1900 a month. We’ve stayed here much longer than we planned because we could save more money.  To rent something that isn’t a piece of crap in a decent school district we are looking at a jump of $1000.  With two kids in daycare this puts us in a position where we have to watch every dollar and we can’t save a dime.

“Even with an economic shock the “housing is always going up” is so ingrained in people here that it will be sticky while it comes down. We could make an easy move to the island and looked at leaving the lower mainland, but the whole province has gone bonkers.

“So any financial insight you have would be appreciated. We either rent something above our means, rent a dump, move to maple ridge/surrey or put our kid in a not so great school.  All of options are not so great. So what does the omnipotent Garth have to say about this one?”

Let’s add Frank to the conversation, while we’re at it. Also has FOMO bad, and he’s an accountant, to boot.

“So a 1,500 foot brand new townhome was ready to be purchased for maybe low to mid 800s in Burnaby near the Skytrain, ready to move in this spring as it is nearly completed development. After GST and PPT we are closer to $900,000. I could afford the 20% down and if I liquidated everything, I would have a manageable mortgage but I said no.

“How do you know the lower mainland won’t be the same as New York or other cities where prices continually climb to a point where only the elite rich can afford them? Maybe I should have purchased it and watched it climb to $1.3 million in 5 years rather than sitting on the sidelines. I think at this point I have missed the boat and I am going to rent forever. Do you really think the market will correct to prices below today in the next 5 years? Thoughts?”

Recall that bubble mentality I’ve talked about a few times here? That feeling of buy-now-or-buy-never, even if you can’t afford it or every scrap of logic tells you it’s insane? It certainly suggests we’re at a top – when a numbers dude seriously compares Burnaby to Manhattan, or a couple contemplates a $1.6 million purchase with a $1.5 million mortgage because they want to avoid a $1,000 rent increase.

Last weekend a new townhouse development went up for pre-sale in Langley. If you haven’t been there, don’t bother. It’s sixty clicks from downtown YVR and the main cultural attraction is a casino. Anyway, demand for the units was so high the developer decided to conduct a raffle. Not to buy, but to win a place in line to buy. When asked why they would be so demeaned, people in the queue said the same thing: if we don’t buy now, we never will.

We’ve seen this movie before. Bullion. Dot-coms. Bre-X. Nortel. Until human nature changes, the outcome remains the same. A market propelled by panic buying will not last. Sure, Sophie and Frank can hand over every dime, shoulder an epic loan and get a piece of the action. But the risk is enormous. For what? The same place you can rent, at no risk?

Maybe Rhonda’s right. People aren’t worth treating with respect.

159 comments ↓

#1 manderson on 05.30.16 at 6:13 pm

FIRST!

#2 prairiegopher on 05.30.16 at 6:14 pm

First!!

#3 dm in c on 05.30.16 at 6:17 pm

And I thought we were crazy in YYC before the oil rut. 900K ++ for a townhome outside of the city.

These people need to get out more. FOMO is entirely psychologically avoidable. Be strong. Cripes.

This will not end well. RIP Vanc.

#4 Penny Henny on 05.30.16 at 6:22 pm

Rhonda repriced $50 G’s higher because that’s how much the market moves in a month.

Jimmy, be first. I know you can!

#5 mortgage broker on on 05.30.16 at 6:24 pm

Yeah people are insane to buy at these prices,

why not take some of your savings and invest in something that will increase your income? Like a business or something?

If you increase your income then things become more affordable no?

#6 ole Doberman on 05.30.16 at 6:27 pm

I dunno Garth it does sound different this time. With all thr laundered money trying to get off the grid into RE you cant compare this to stock manias. People need a place to live but not an electronic asset valued by rigged robo computers in the stock mkt
Just my 2 cents….

#7 ole Doberman on 05.30.16 at 6:28 pm

…those poor people, couldnt imagine.

#8 X on 05.30.16 at 6:28 pm

What % of people actually use their new found net worth to create more equity? Most people don’t use a HELOC to purchase investments, nor do they buy low, sell high, and utilized their ever increasing new found net worth.

Nope, most brag and exaggerate to their friends about how much their home has increased in value, and feel really special. So special that they don’t realize they are now paying more in property taxes to live in the same shelter.

This RE market is getting boring….

#9 MoneyDriven on 05.30.16 at 6:31 pm

Just wanted to say. I HATE VANCOUVER. a city that offers nothing but a heartache to me.

A city that is divided by haves and have not.

Why would anyone compare this to New York.

Vancouver is a city where old people are Millionaire because they bought house yet they are poor as they have to budget their grocery!!

Vancouver is a city with limited job potential compare to Seattle. for me anywhere.

Top it off with the higher taxes compare to Seattle.

I really really hate Vancouver. Trying so hard to get out of this hell hole…

Wish leaving all family and friends behind was easier as I really hate Vancouver.

Did I mention I hate Vancouver.

#10 North Compton on 05.30.16 at 6:32 pm

FB’s algorithm is really nailing it as this Op-ed delusional piece by YVR’s mayor popped up immediately after your post. Apparently everyone wants to live in Vancouver because there are outdoor patios, food trucks and gay parades. No seriously, that is what Gregor says…

http://thewalrus.ca/why-is-vancouver-so-expensive/

#11 ed on 05.30.16 at 6:35 pm

When I first moved back to Canada 10 years ago after having lived in bubbly California, and post bubble Japan, I looked for a house to buy, waiting for the market to settle. Now, I have completely given up on the idea of owning and rent instead, filling TFSAs, RRSPS, RESPs plus. Rent is a very present-centered thing–you pay for what you get. A mortgage, on the other had, pushes the pain down the road, where you cannot see it as monthly payments do not (at least on paper) seem so big. This is why people think renting is a waste of money; same reason people think that a cash-back from a car dealership is “affordable” (or a builder).

Home buyers are unable to delay gratification. From child psychology, we know that the ability to delay a reward is tied to a number of positive personality traits, wonder what that says about adult Canadians:

“Children who were willing to delay gratification and waited to receive the second marshmallow ended up having higher SAT scores, lower levels of substance abuse, lower likelihood of obesity, better responses to stress, better social skills as reported by their parents, and generally better scores in a range of other life measures.”
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2658056

#12 ApplePi on 05.30.16 at 6:37 pm

Love her website banner. Honesty. Hard Work. Dedication.

#13 Toothless Measures on 05.30.16 at 6:37 pm

Some suggested changes…

“We’ve seen this movie before. Bullion. Dot-coms. Bre-X. Nortel.” – Add Vancouver since 2003 to the list as this FOMO mania has gripped Vancouver for the last 13 years of a bull market as economic fundamentals have been replaced by other unforeseen variables (insert whatever list you want).

“Until human nature changes, the outcome remains the same. A market propelled by panic buying will not last.” –

Maybe replace with, “Until the feds finally get the nerve to start rate normalization this century, and it takes place in the next two years, and until foreign capital is curtailed, a market propelled by panic buying will last for years”

#14 Toothless Measures on 05.30.16 at 6:40 pm

Rhonda repriced $50 G’s higher because that’s how much the market moves in a month.

——

Winner, winner, chicken dinner – someone actually gets the YVR market, and the insidious spread of its house prices to all parts of BC

#15 I'm stupid on 05.30.16 at 6:50 pm

School zone don’t mean shit! Why do people think some schools are better than others? Think about it… The curriculum is set by the province, the teachers all have the same degree, the maximum class sizes are the same. The only real difference is fund raising that a school does and it is higher in more affluent areas. I know in Ontario that the poorer schools get more money to balance this stuff out. Good students are made at home.

#16 The Spectre on 05.30.16 at 6:51 pm

Only (bad) losers hate.

The rest of us loves u Garth!

Cheers

#17 Totalchaos on 05.30.16 at 6:52 pm

Note to Sophie – for pete’s sake, you’re worried about your kid not being in the right kindergarten? Do you really think that will affect his university prospects? You need to realise that our schools are not funded like the ones in the US.

Inner city schools get more funding and more supports than those in more affluent neighbourhoods. We switched our dyslexic kid from the “better” catchment high school to a school in a catchment with a much lower socio-economic group and a high percentage of new Canadians and refugees. Best move ever. Parents move their families to Canada for better opportunities and have kids that work their asses off. Teachers in the schools are often more flexible when assessing a kids knowledge to account for learning styles, language and cultural barriers.

My kid was struggling in the “good” school, but in the “ghetto” school he is tracking for AP physics and has high 90s in pre-calculus. Keep in mind there is standardized tests for AP and math 10, so those aren’t pitty marks.

While there are some rough kids at the school, there are in every school, some just dress better and are given fancy cars. My kid has a lovely group of hard working friends that you can clearly see want to be successful in life. If you don’t like your kids friends, you need to remember that water seeks its own level and maybe you need to switch up your parenting rather than your kid’s school.

#18 Lori on 05.30.16 at 6:54 pm

Sophie should watch Michael Moore’s latest documentary then she’ll know where the kids should go to school.

#19 common sense on 05.30.16 at 6:56 pm

Nothing better than stating your “DETAIL ORIENTED”, twice no less and falling short.

I love when actions scream louder than words.

Reminds me of the time the President of now long gone CANADA 3000 stood before his 400 company employees and told us all, pointing the finger no less just HOW IMPORTANT it was to check your attire often as the image you presented by your appearance represented the airline…all the while he was wearing a dress shirt with a frayed collar, noticeable to all…Priceless.

#20 Nik on 05.30.16 at 6:56 pm

Garth, You haven’t really answered Sophie’s question. Less than a year ago I bought a condo in new west and my situation and profile is very similar to Sophie’s. You had even admonished me for doing so when I posted this. As luck would have I put 20% down right before the markets tanked and in less than a year my condo’s worth $200K more!
we are listing it soon to cash out (obviously!!) but if you look at the rental market it is RIDICULOUS! The hot real estate market (and Airbnb) has had a bit impact on the rental stock and any decent unit is 20% more expensive than what it was a year ago. For a small family looking for a bit of space $2500 is the minimum and $3K is the price point where you get something decent!! There’s also the fear that landlords may decide to sell as soon as a lease is done and I really don’t want to move once a year (who does?)! I am having second thoughts with my decision to sell now!! Any thoughts?

#21 Well, here we go. . . on 05.30.16 at 6:57 pm

I told you awhile ago, that many senior citizen Walmart Greeters were once pension flushed, made in the shade Boomers, until many of them during the Nortel Boom, thought it would be a smart idea to cash out their pensions and buy Nortel stocks. How could they not, they mused. . .that stock just kept going up and up? At the same time, sane people who were not infected with the Nortel Virus, were advising them, that this was a very bad idea. . .but no, FOMO took over many rational, intelligent people and turned them into crazed, delusional stock buying Mavericks, which of course, ended not in a blaze of glory, but just a burning, firery blaze.

My advice to your Vancouver renters, who want to buy in this market, is to stop by a local Walmart and ask one of those elderly greeters how FOMO worked out for them, and then decide if buying a house in this market may end, with you too saying “Welcome to Walmart.”

#22 Metaxa on 05.30.16 at 7:05 pm

From Rhonda’s self-aggrandizing promo piece quoted by Garth today:
…Being down to earth, approachable, and honest, allows me to form long lasting relationships with the clients who I work for.”

Should be “…with the clients for whom I work.”

Like so many today I pass on grammar Nazi stuff online as we are on phones, tablets, on the go but if you are a professional putting verbiage online in a business type environment it behooves you to get it right.

And I’m with X above…this is getting boring. Brings out the worst in too many posters and lacks any educational possibility for the odd youngster passing by to inhale.

we need another guest blog!
I volunteer…how about:

Using Recreational Drugs in your Retirement Years, the Pros and Cons of W 18 and Fenytal.

#23 rainclouds on 05.30.16 at 7:10 pm

#10 Compton

Thanks dude…….just before supper. Appetite gone.

Anytime I am forced to endure yet another road being torn up (pretty much all of them )the reptilian part of my cortex conjures up murderous thoughts for a certain politician. Frequently.

RE “news” seems to be going negative:

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/after-long-boom-canadas-housing-shows-some-signs-of-cooling-as-high-prices-create-a-vicious-circle

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/05/30/canadian-condo-construction-royal-bank_n_10174634.html?utm_hp_ref=canada

MBC58

#24 Nic on 05.30.16 at 7:17 pm

At this point, I do think its different. I have been reading this blog for over 3 years because of the advice and the message about housing. But it has only gotten worse and now the rental market is nutts. Sure Garth, you can find a listing and reply back with the link, that does not mean it is simple to get. The rental market in the lower mainland is very competitive and not much available. One you do find a rental you risk beeing kicked out due to the sale of the property. This is not as easy as you put it to rent and save. No, I dont think people should put all their money at a house with a million dollar mortgage. But when faced with a place to live there is not much choice left and buying a place even in this market may have to do.

#25 Suede on 05.30.16 at 7:22 pm

RE agents are mastermind negotiators. It’s all about race…i mean cultures (PC).

Just check out some of the cultural tactics they can implement.

http://negotiationexpertise.com/courses/cultural-factors-in-negotiations/

#26 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.30.16 at 7:28 pm

Hopefully we could use Block chain technology in the future to keep people honest in nearly every endeavor.

If this technology is adopted widely it will yield the “NEW TRUTH” in world commerce, health care, politics.

It could actually be something we should all look forward to as a game changer for the whole world.

It is virtually impossible to cheat using block chain technology because it is so transparent.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2016/05/27/how-blockchain-technology-could-change-the-world/#3123bf4349e0

This could and would keep nasty realtors under control by the recording of all transactions and listings and the history of the above.

Right now we cannot easily find out what a property sold for.
Realtors hide bids from others when they should be revealed after the sale.
Realtors should have bids registered.
The fact that they hide the information about previous sale prices and nearby sale prices is tantamount to theft from prospective purchasers.
Realtors list properties they have just sold that were not listed at all thus skewing the number of days on market statistics.

Block chain technology could usher in an era of extreme truth!

It would work very well for medical drug trials. No more throwing data away that does not suit your hypothesis. (look at Statin drugs, major abuse there)

#27 SI2K on 05.30.16 at 7:35 pm

School catchment is a big deal for sure. Here in Toronto if you’ve got a kid with even mild extra needs it can be the difference between a parent off work acting like a free assistant or a parent continuing to earn. Rents in neighborhoods with the fem remaining EAs tend to be upwards of $2800, for example. Big link to housing behaviour, imo.

#28 SI2K on 05.30.16 at 7:36 pm

few* remaining EAs. Sorry for typo.

#29 North Compton on 05.30.16 at 7:37 pm

#23 rainclouds

If you really want to lose your lunch, Google Gregor’s GF, and her corrupt (now incarcerated) mother.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.16 at 7:38 pm

@#10 Compton
Glad to know Gregor feels that the city is “vibrant”.
Unfortunately he failed to mention the thousands of vacant suites sitting either vacant or on AirB2B rental websites ( locals need not apply).
House flipping, triple dipping realtors, campaign contributions from the aforemention realtors and construction companies are all just “the price of doing business….”
Revolting and it may lead to revolts.
Nor did Gregor mention that during his last election campaign his wife booted him out because he was caught “stchupping” a former asian model. All while he voted to block the road and eradicate traffic in front of his (now former) house causing its value to skyrocket virtually over night.
Gregor.
A classic example of a what happens when there is a dearth of options and one is forced to elect the village idiot (a mindless, self absorbed, navel picking ,poster boy with delusions of intelligence).
A pointy hatted dunce that is elected time and time again because the electoral options were even worse…..
This will not end well.
But at least we can be happy in the knowledge that we have our personal Sodom by the Sea with the immensely successful Pride Parade.

#31 Brian Ripley on 05.30.16 at 7:41 pm

“I blame you” said Sophie to Garth

While we wait for the May housing numbers I mashed up a chart from Demographia on the changes in affordability in the last decade as well as my own chart comparing earnings growth and SFD prices in Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/magic-bus

The Calgary plot demonstrates what a downturn looks like… falling asset prices AND earnings. Not a combo one wants if one has limited equity exposed to a trend beyond one’s control.

I also included some quotes from various polls that most of us have seen in the last week related to the compounding effects of using credit to pay for lifestyle instead of production.

We like to blame others for this housing mess we are in but the shame is all of ours at the societal level.

#32 BS on 05.30.16 at 7:46 pm

So any financial insight you have would be appreciated. We either rent something above our means, rent a dump, move to maple ridge/surrey or put our kid in a not so great school.

Your kids education will have little to do with the school. Stay put and put your kid in the local school.

If you really believe the school makes a difference it is not hard to put your kid in any Vancouver school. All you need is an address in the catchment you want. No need to move. Just find a friend or relative who lives in the area of the school you want and give that as your address.

#33 TS on 05.30.16 at 7:47 pm

It’s amazing the emphasis parent’s put on “School Districts”.

Absolutely Ridiculous. Your kid is going to Junior Kindergarten! He’s 4. He / She may or may not know how to wipe their ass properly.

They’re going to do fine regardless of what school they go to.

You’re willing to pay $1000 more in rent because you want your 4 year old to go to a “better public school”

Think about that for a sec.

#34 BOOM! on 05.30.16 at 7:49 pm

My, my. The problems of today’s mom, so the same as when we were raising kids, back in the stone age, due the mid 70’s-80’s to early 90’s.

Broke people should rent, Sophie in your hood. You grab hubs the rug rats, and move to a more rational place, but that would entail foresight, and vision. No, not dynamic super-vision that’s why you earn big bucks, and live like the help.

Frank, lucky you missed the boat. Rent, save, ignore.
The price of them condo’s will probably keep escalating 7% -27% for ever, until they don’t. Similar to used cars and socks., not stocks – used socks. Big gains in used socks. You’re an accountant??

Holiday Humor, brought to you be Grimm Reaper Products and the Am-I-Gone Funeral Services, & Deep Fryers of Buffalo, NY.

#35 Chris in Nanaimo on 05.30.16 at 7:52 pm

Oh entitled Sophie…..who must get her kid into the best Kindergarten at all costs….

Ya know my one of my kids is in almost the worst High School in the Province if you believe the Fraser Ins stats…..but yet he’s a straight A student.

So much is down to the attitude of the kid and the parents…

#36 Kathy on 05.30.16 at 8:00 pm

Question.
so forget about interest rates going up and people not affording their mortgage payments.

What if you put 20 % down and within a year your home value decreases by 30%. The bank is now more at risk. Can they demand more $ to secure their mortgage.

sorry if it is a stupid question

#37 North Compton on 05.30.16 at 8:04 pm

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz

Ditto that.

My biggest worry post RE correction to end all corrections is that politicians start promising to bail out all the foreclosed.

#38 Herf on 05.30.16 at 8:05 pm

“Put end-to-end, they’d stretch from Calgary, past Red Deer and half way to Edmonton.”

Red Deer already is half way to Edmonton, so do you mean that the queue would be half way between The Deer and Edmonton, meaning it’s 3/4 of the way from Calgary to Edmonton?

Doesn’t matter. Real estate agents stretched out on a road (as part of the real estate) – roadkill. Yeah, not pretty.

#39 Vlad on 05.30.16 at 8:20 pm

A lot of people wasting their lives waiting for the opportunity to come to them rather than going to where the opportunity is.

#40 Caught on 05.30.16 at 8:24 pm

Would you recommend an average millennial investor invest in low cost Vanguard ETFs? Say 75% VUN & the rest bonds (VAB)?

#41 Caught on 05.30.16 at 8:27 pm

What do you think of using Vanguard ETFs in general?

#42 Vundo on 05.30.16 at 8:36 pm

This is a non-trivial worry. I have heard stories of what it is like to teach in certain schools. $1000 per month is a significant amount of money. That being said, why not price out homeschooling and private school? Probably more than $12000 per year, but why not consider it if you know your cost of living is going up anyway?

#43 Van Isle Renter on 05.30.16 at 8:36 pm

People cashing out of Van and moving to the Island is the sign of the blow off top and the end of the show. Same as when your stock broker tells you to stay in the game and you decide to leave. Taking money off the table kills the game. Yeah, Victoria and other parts will be goosed for a bit, but that’ll subside. It only takes a few % cashing out to blow a hole in demand. Always remember it only took 10% of the homeowners to get into trouble in the US for the market to slap everyone.

Ever has it been so. Last one out of Van is a rotten egg.

#44 IHCTD9 on 05.30.16 at 8:36 pm

Sophie and hubby just need to look at things from a different angle.

What is worth more, your big city career job, or your dreams of owning that sfd with a nice back yard? This is the choice at the end of the day

They could move to a non metropolis outside the stupid zones with poor work prospects, work whatever jobs they can get, and finally buy that house. A nice one too, with a payment of less than 2k a month.

Or stay in the insane Canadian metropolis, pay 50-100% more than owning in a smaller town just to rent, forget about ever owning, but keeping the big city employment options open.

Really, it’s a no brainer. I work in a city of population 15k, wife in one of 50k. Last year our gross income was about 115k. Yeah, that’s a big drop from all these millennial couples pulling down 150k in a big city, but 150k might as well be minimum wage if we’re talking about buying an sfd in YVR or the GTA.

That’s pretty much it. Make the choice, leave or stay, but no bitching about prices in YVR, you’re not chained to the ground out there.

Honestly, if the city prevented them from buying and from saving, and they are into their 30’s already, they’re pretty much screwed. I feel behind schedule with several hundred grand saved and a paid for house at 43 (Fact is, I AM behind). If they end up buying now, that’s all she wrote…

#45 Cory on 05.30.16 at 8:38 pm

“People aren’t worth treating with respect”

Finally some sense on this pathetic blog!!

#46 Koshy Alex on 05.30.16 at 8:42 pm

Don’t listen to the ruling elite: the world economy is in real trouble
Andy Xie says those attending the G20, Davos and other wasteful meetings are wrong to try to pin the blame for the turmoil on people’s psychology; all signs point to a prolonged period of global stagnation and instability

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1919092/dont-listen-ruling-elite-world-economy-real-trouble

#47 Shortymac on 05.30.16 at 8:55 pm

I don’t understand why she doesn’t just put kiddo in private school if she is that concerned.

Also, it’s kindergarten, it really matters later. Save on daycare and just let him go.

#48 Linda on 05.30.16 at 8:55 pm

Sophie should wait. First, a child just starting school isn’t going to miss out on Ivy League because hey, the kindergarten wasn’t top notch. More likely the child will not do well because kids pick up on parents stressing about, well, kids not doing well. As in even before they start doing. No pressure to excel here. Check out Asia. Yeah, the kids do very well & have ‘tiger’ moms. The kids also suicide because they didn’t get straight A’s. Seriously.

Plus, if you can’t save with a rental of $1,900 & are stressing about a $1,000 increase in rent for something ‘decent’ how the heck are you going to handle a mortgage well above that sum? Oh, you’ll just get the 30 plus year term? Can you say massive interest payments to the bank, minimal decrease to the loan? Plus now you have a house to maintain AND you have the mortgage payment. With an excellent chance of having to renew at higher rates (with hardly anything paid off the principle) in a few years. Plus growing children whose expenses are only going to increase.

Instead, hunt the new rental. If you start now, you might be able to score renting someone’s freshly purchased white elephant at bargain basement prices. Yes, they’ll want you to cover their mortgage, but if the market is melting down they’ll be grateful if you offer even half of what they need.

#49 Mike in Toronto on 05.30.16 at 8:56 pm

#35 Kathy

The bank refuses to take the mortgage at the time of renewal. You need to make the spread without incurring debt or sell the house to pay off the mortgage and put the remainder on your credit card.

Unless you’re under the CMHC, then the bank will renew, but you can’t shop around.

#50 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:05 pm

Disclosure coming soon dogs.

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/05/29/ufo-video-captures-strange-object-near-ohio-military-base.html

#51 OffshoreObserver on 05.30.16 at 9:14 pm

Why stay in Vancouver?

Expatriate, instead.

I sold my apartment hotel in Vancouver in 2010 and have lived in both Thailand and Vietnam since.

Presently, I stay in Da Nang, located on the central coast of Eastern Vietnam on the South China Sea.

My rent for an apartment overlooking “China Beach” is $USD250/month. My Fibre Optic Inet connection is $50/month. It delivers about 50MB/sec down and 80MB/sec up.

http://imgur.com/AGTllnz

My GFs are 29 and 25, respectively, located in Da Nang and Colombo, Sri Lanka.

(Oh, and there are no laws about Common Law living arrangements in Thailand and Vietnam. If appropriate, I will relocate Miss Sri Lanka to a benign, non-threatening jurisdiction. (Google “Miss Sri Lanka 2015”.)

(So, I cannot get caught in the extortionate Divorce conspiracy racket.)

It might cost me $300K to pay the capital gains on my portfolio gains upon expatriation, but never after I have to pay taxes.

(Health care in both Vietnam and Thailand is excellent! And white guys with wallets go to the head of the line.)

Needless to say, I am no Nationalist!

The Western democracies are going to be forced to raise taxes on their slaves as the confluence of broke pension plans, entitlements and immigrant costs of their involvement in social welfare programs mushroom.

The smart money bails!

Why would one subject their children to our socialist education system? (I have never met a smart teacher, but my MBA course administrator/principal got named in the B.C. sunshine list, making about $500K/year, so, in retrospect, he was no dummy.

My biggest expenses after moving from Vancouver were return trips to see my Mom, who sadly passed at 91 last September. Now, that annual expense, $30K, drops off. So, I spend more on my GFs.

“Kiki” from Vietnam: http://imgur.com/AejSBBg

If you want to follow the “smart money”, see who has expatriated, from super Rich Canadians, the Laidlaw guy, the Pharmaceutical guy and ex-ipo-millionaires from Facebook–and, Garth, I think you should write more about this option, please.

#52 Jimmy on 05.30.16 at 9:21 pm

Thanks for the encouragement Penny Henny.

I think I can, I think I can…

Fi…ftieth!

#53 Presumptive President Trump on 05.30.16 at 9:25 pm

Smokey waiting for UFO disclosure is analogous to Garth predicting a housing crash.

#54 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:26 pm

Steven Hawking is confused, doesn’t understand the popularity of Trump.

He’s a clueless freak show, he don’t even understand the Universe is shrinking and either is real.

Gravity waves about as real as man made climate BS

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/05/30/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity/85173208/

Trump resonates with white males, the only group left not allowed to form a union., a community, or say in a loud voice, don’t tread on me.Everywhere you look the white straight male is under attack. Hell even the Gorilla killing has been culturally twisted.

If the kid was black, they would not have shot the gorilla.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/30/black-outrage-gorilla-shot-protect-white-privilege-just-one-problem/

Even a Rocket scientist can’t see the elephant in the room.

#55 steerage steward on 05.30.16 at 9:31 pm

We are all make emotional financial decisions, part of being human.

Best we can hope for is a period of intellectual reflection after the fallout which leads to a slightly less emotional decision next time.

Guess the upside is after this bubble pops some people wont need to make another mistake to learn all they need to know.

#56 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:41 pm

When I look a clips of Bernie supporters being stupid and violent I take know offence, young and dumb is what I think.

Deliberately radicalized by losers, teacher that never had the balls to take a risk in the private sector. Cowards like the ones how taught them.

They took the safe hands route, but when someone puts it all on the line, hits a jackpot buys a jet they seith with rabid jealousy and unleash there little mind fkd warriors for social justice.

Thinking they have a chance to take from the gamblers.

They don’t. not smart enough, the longer you stayed in school the more illogical, weak and stupid you are vs a gambling man.

#57 Bottoms_Up on 05.30.16 at 9:43 pm

To Sophie–a few years in a “less than ideal school” is not going to harm your child. If you are talking JK/SK/grade 1, just do some extra reading at night, and extracurriculars outside of school. You’ll save money, and can bide your time till your daycare days are done. Once they’re done, you will have cash flow to afford a better school district. And don’t look at the elementary school, be sure you’re in the zone for a great high school. That’s where the difference in educational quality/peers will really make a difference.

#58 Aggregator on 05.30.16 at 9:45 pm

Mortgage arrears are on the rise in Canada’s oil-rich provinces: CMHC

More homeowners in the oil patch are falling behind on their mortgage payments as Canada’s housing agency warns crude prices remain the most significant threat to the market.

The number of Alberta and Saskatchewan homeowners falling 90 days behind or more on their CMHC-insured mortgages continued to move higher in the first quarter, according to data released Monday by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Q1 data..

$520,000,000,000 CMHC Insurance-in-force
$429,000,000,000 CMHC/Govt Guarantees-in-force
$412,454,000,000 Genworth Insurance-in-force (90% govt backed)

Q1 Total: $1,361,454,000,000.00

That's like 76% of Canada's GDP! This is crazy. At this point there's no chance that CMHC could be privatized because you'd need the sovereignty of a nation to back that amount of contingent liabilities. No private insurer is stupid enough insure Canada's overheated market.

More interestingly, CMHC's Q1 data reveals more banks resorting to covered bonds as a funding source for mortgages. The total amount of covered bonds (legislative only) in Q1 stood at $105.3 billion, of which 57% of 2016 issuance was denominated in EUR for whatever reason. Covered bonds are protected by legislative laws that give creditors senior status over shareholders in the case of insolvency. If your mortgage happens to be pooled in that bond (which the bank will never tell you, nor do they even know other then people working at the trading desks), investors own the property title, not you.

I told you.. They'll keep coming up with one scheme after another, because in the digital world of finance, anything is possible. Nobody is going to touch this market. Not the government, not Poloz, not even OSFI. This thing just keeps going until something happens and there's someone or something else to blame for it.

#59 Doug t on 05.30.16 at 9:46 pm

Caveat Emptor

#60 No blockchain on 05.30.16 at 9:53 pm

#25: people are so misguided about blockchain technology. Firstly, this is nothing more than digital timestamping, which was around already in the nineties, with the addition of public keys inside the hashes and proof-of-work. But the proof-of-work is really only useful in the context of bitcoin, the currency, to deal with double-spending. For digital timestamping one does not need Blockstream, and in fact it would be bad because it relies on Bitcoin which is a bighoy flawed currency; it cannot be called a currency at all, in fact. If we want to have something like a distributed digittal ledger, for god’s sake let’s leave bitcoin out of it, and in fact do away with proofs-of-work altogether. Do not believe the hype!

#61 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:54 pm

Bottoms_Up

Seams like some of the gods you worship where caught with the hand in the cookie jar.

http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/05/14/new-climate-scandal-called-worse-than-climategate-new-emails-released-clear-conspiracy-to-avoid-foia-use-public-money-top-un-scientist-u-s-senator-entangled/

#62 For those about to flop... on 05.30.16 at 9:57 pm

Hey Joking Man,they have determined what the problem was at Cincinnati Zoo…

http://imgur.com/4FXNhzH

#63 Bottoms_Up on 05.30.16 at 9:57 pm

#20 Nik on 05.30.16 at 6:56 pm
———————
Realtor spam-bot? You know only realtors use double exclamation marks!!

#64 TurnerNation on 05.30.16 at 9:59 pm

Help help me Rhonda. What’s next on this boomer music blog; Jenny’s #; Layla; Angie?

#65 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 10:02 pm

Fundamentally purchasing real estate in Canada is insane at this point in time.

But the schooled herd who feeds this madness is to far gone over the edge mentally that we got a shit load of years of real estate gains.

And the ones with real brains, that can do math sitting on the sidelines going WTF.

Screw the cards, play the player, that is how you win at poker.

#66 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 10:05 pm

#61 For those about to flop… on 05.30.16 at 9:57 pm
Hey Joking Man,they have determined what the problem was at Cincinnati Zoo…

http://imgur.com/4FXNhzH
…….
Yeah the hole in the fence. No one is taking about.
It’s the white privileged mom who is to blame.

#67 Mainlandong on 05.30.16 at 10:14 pm

She’s a killer. What do you expect.

I would want that selling my house in Vancouver though. She would probably kill it.

#68 Bobby on 05.30.16 at 10:25 pm

Great article Garth, certainly a lot there.
First, I was just in NYC this weekend. Times Square was electric with the Memorial Day activities. No, Burnaby is not in the least like Manhattan. Only a fool, an idiot that paid too much for a duplex or a realtor would make that comparison.
I sold my house on the island without a realtor. Easy, very easy and did much better than what a realtor suggested. Realtors are by no means worth the commissions they command. All you need is a good lawyer. Most advice they offer is based on what is best for them, not the buyer. That is why I always laugh when I hear them speak of a buyer’s agent. Remember it is the seeker that pays the commission. I chuckle at holding back offers to cite a bidding war. Lost track of the number of times no worthwhile bids came forward. Lots of egg on realtor faces.
Looking forward to the likes of Zillow coming to Canada.

#69 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 10:28 pm

DELETED

#70 BillyBob on 05.30.16 at 10:37 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-falls-to-10th-place-in-imd-competitiveness-ranking-countrys-worst-in-years

Sure glad Canada has such a diversified economy to pick up the slack with all of those other industries like….uhhh…real estate…and…uh…

Next stop for CAD: 75 cents. Toot toot!

#71 Robert on 05.30.16 at 10:41 pm

Vancouver-mania will end when CMHC, Genworth, the banks and credit unions, Revenue Canada, Fintrac, federal, provincial, municipal governments decide it’s time to perform due diligence in the face of money-laundering, airbnbing, diaspora cash, politician inaction. Until then it’s open season on YVR. Don’t hold your breath waiting for this roller coaster to reach the top. There’s a few more rungs in the ladder yet.

#72 mathman on 05.30.16 at 10:42 pm

The number of realtors is scary – whats worse is the # of mortgage brokers, home inspectors, home stagers, flippers, appraisers and every other relatively new found profession attached to real estate.

Once the real estate market crashes, one of the compounding issues that will drive process down beyond folks imagination will be all these folks will be out of work. Aside from having a heart beat and a leased luxury vehicle, no much in the way of skill with many of these folks so what do they do? Take their incomes and consumption out of the picture and we have a problem.

the more houses go up in value, the more people benefit, but that works inversely as well. the longer this charade keeps up, the harder and more long lasting the fall.

#73 Capt. Serious on 05.30.16 at 10:46 pm

Re: Vangaurd ETFs, Vangaurd runs things well. Low fees. A lot of their ETFs listed in Canada trade thinly though.

#74 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 10:47 pm

A chic that never meet a Nictonite

https://youtu.be/SbyAZQ45uww

She ain’t walking after 33 years.

#75 Bottoms_Up on 05.30.16 at 10:47 pm

#60 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:54 pm
———————–
Climatedepot.com? Is that like where climate change deniers go to work when the oil money dries up?

The only god I worship is data.

#76 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 05.30.16 at 10:52 pm

#1 manderson on 05.30.16 at 6:13 pm
#2 prairiegopher on 05.30.16 at 6:14 pm

Congrats! You have admitted publicly that you are both idiots! Now go find Jimmy (the other halfwit) and play in the street.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Firster

#77 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 10:58 pm

When the wife finds out your not an alterboy

https://youtu.be/T5Xl0Qry-hA

#78 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 05.30.16 at 10:58 pm

#51 Jimmy on 05.30.16 at 9:21 pm

51 Jimmy boy? Did you fall down the well again? Did Lassie go get your Mommy to help you? C’mon Jimmy, man up!

#79 Rook on 05.30.16 at 11:03 pm

I have asked a few times but no reply from you Garth. I’m asking for your expertise … for free. Come on!

So I agree with you 100% about it obviously not being a time to buy a house in Vancouver. I implore my friends there to take your advice.
But, what is your opinion on Victoria? There is a FOMO spirit floating around this city right now, and I must say I am feeling it knocking on my door. I am trying my best to ignore it.
Is Victoria going to feel a similar deflation of prices when all this BS in Vancouver starts to boil over? People are acting stupid here right now.

#80 Sideshow Rob on 05.30.16 at 11:10 pm

Macleans article on Vancouver. Good read.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/chinese-real-estate-investors-are-reshaping-the-market/

#81 rainclouds on 05.30.16 at 11:14 pm

It just gets better every day

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/realtor-says-he-was-a-target-after-calling-out-unethical-practices/article30215834/

#82 GRG on 05.30.16 at 11:31 pm

I grew up in Vancouver. Left after I graduated from UBC in 1979 and haven’t lived there since. No desire to move back. An ugly city in a beautiful setting. And now filled with property insanity to boot. Must be the salt water.

The townhouse story reminded me of being in Palm Springs, CA circa spring 2004, visiting friends. Woke up one morning to headlines in the local paper of people camping in the desert. Everybody wanted to be first in line for the privilege of securing their piece of the oh so rare California sandbox. Reading the fine print it turned out they lined up to get a spot to enter a lottery which, if successful, allowed them a future opportunity to bid on a lot. The development was north of Hwy 10, right on the San Andreas.

We all know how that property mania ended…

#83 S.Bby on 05.30.16 at 11:39 pm

#50 OffshoreObserver
Is your place the one with the orange tarps?

#84 GRG on 05.30.16 at 11:41 pm

Just an adder: When I read that article I told Mrs. GRG the top was in for the plainly obvious real estate bubble that had been brewing in Cali lo those many years. Turns out I was early; it didn’t start to roll over for another 2 years. These things seem to go on a LOT longer than any of us can imagine.

#85 It's different this time on 05.30.16 at 11:44 pm

haven’t people in vancouver been panicking for the last 10-15 years??? Still it just goes up up and up!!!

#86 triplenet on 05.30.16 at 11:55 pm

#34 Chris in Nanaimo

Smart people ain’t that stupid.
Shit house luck I guess.
……but we’re smiling..and proud of the little man. It all starts at home brother.
You got it.

#87 DON on 05.31.16 at 12:13 am

#34 Chris in Nanaimo on 05.30.16 at 7:52 pm

Oh entitled Sophie…..who must get her kid into the best Kindergarten at all costs….

Ya know my one of my kids is in almost the worst High School in the Province if you believe the Fraser Ins stats…..but yet he’s a straight A student.

So much is down to the attitude of the kid and the parents…
*****************************

Couldn’t agree with you more. Parents need to stay involved in their children’s education…and stop outsourcing their responsibilities. Balance is required. Nice to see your child is doing well in his/her environment. Congrats to your family.

Sincerely,

#88 aerozone on 05.31.16 at 12:16 am

I know the #2 north from the Cowtown very well.
Please make sure all realtors are aligned nicely in the
middle of the fast lane. I’ll give the only one that my wife and I have dealt with in the past 40 years who deserves respect a call, and let him know about the
roundup.

#89 JK/SK on 05.31.16 at 12:49 am

Funny how many people have no clue about the importance of the education in the early childhood.

Sophie, take a look at the philosophy and practice of Montessori schools. Spend the extra $1000 there for a few years and your kid will be fine for the rest of the schools almost anywhere.

#90 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 05.31.16 at 1:00 am

one school not materially different than another

only in the parents mind

as with all things regarding their spawn

#91 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.31.16 at 1:29 am

#59 No blockchain on 05.30.16 at 9:53 pm
#25: people are so misguided about blockchain technology. Firstly, this is nothing more than digital timestamping, which was around already in the nineties, with the addition of public keys inside the hashes and proof-of-work. But the proof-of-work is really only useful in the context of bitcoin, the currency, to deal with double-spending. For digital timestamping one does not need Blockstream, and in fact it would be bad because it relies on Bitcoin which is a bighoy flawed currency; it cannot be called a currency at all, in fact. If we want to have something like a distributed digittal ledger, for god’s sake let’s leave bitcoin out of it, and in fact do away with proofs-of-work altogether. Do not believe the hype!
—————————————————————

Sorry, but you sound like a unionized schoolteacher who doesn’t want anyone to know that their students are failing. ( BC teachers rally every year against standardized testing and reporting)

What a shallow argument against “digital time stamping” “because it was around in the nineties”.

This great technology will expose so many truths that are hidden in today’s world from good people by the unscrupulous.

Blockchain technology has little or nothing to do with Bitcoin. It just uses the same or similar technology to do different things and keep an HONEST record of all transactions taken place.

This is in stark contrast to so many things that are back dated and changed after the fact to extract more money from those who are in the dark.

I am really excited about block chain technology within the context of medical research. Watch for heavy anti block chain push back from Big Pharma. They like realtors do not want the truth to come out.

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21699099-blockchain-technology-could-improve-reliability-medical-trials-better

#92 Chelsea on 05.31.16 at 2:19 am

I too have noticed relistings that are priced higher…. and the old listing is still listed… guess they missed removing the old one entirely. It is pretty tacky this Real Estate jamboree .. funny indeed.. not worth the headache of buying right now, will wait for melt down.

Nite…

#93 Koshy Alex on 05.31.16 at 2:22 am

Along the new Silk Road, a city built on sand is a monument to China’s problems

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/along-the-new-silk-road-a-city-built-on-sand-is-a-monument-to-chinas-problems/2016/05/29/982424c0-1d09-11e6-82c2-a7dcb313287d_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_chinasilkroad-608pm_13Ahomepage2Fstory

#94 Mike in Vancouver on 05.31.16 at 2:52 am

So it’s happening in langley now. Blog dogs and Garth: So how far away from ground zero do you have to move to pay a normal price for a house?

#95 Freedom First on 05.31.16 at 3:07 am

Wow! So many people working at making their lives hard/difficult/immoral/unpleasant in so many ways.

I am the happiest most content person I know. In business, always strike a fair deal, for the other party and yourself. In personal life treat all people with respect and keep any expectations of receiving it back at zero.

That being said, as I have only one life to live, my most important job is to please myself. I feel like an oasis in a sea of misery.

#96 Hating Victoria on 05.31.16 at 3:24 am

Real estate mania is spilling over as rental mania in Victoria. Here’s someone willing to pay what should be market rate rent here, plus he’ll reno your rental while living there!

http://www.usedvictoria.com/classified-ad/Trade-High-Quality-Renos-towards-Rent-_27563931

#97 Setting it Straight on 05.31.16 at 3:57 am

It really does matter which school district you put your child into, the emphasis on excellence varies widely from one to another, some have it, others don’t, on purpose.

It’s amazing the emphasis parent’s put on “School Districts”.

Absolutely Ridiculous. Your kid is going to Junior Kindergarten! He’s 4. He / She may or may not know how to wipe their ass properly.

They’re going to do fine regardless of what school they go to.

You’re willing to pay $1000 more in rent because you want your 4 year old to go to a “better public school”

Think about that for a sec”

Take the Surrey School District for example where only 1.7% of all children will graduate with University acceptance grades. As low as an native reserve. Don’t follow the Fraser Institutes findings at your peril.

My experience was astounding enough to make me move. The teachers would chastise me for correcting my sons homework citing, they’ll learn from one another. meanwhile he wasn’t spelling or calculating very well. The schools ‘big program’ was cooking.

I enrolled him in another school district with higher grad numbers and they literally sent a swat team in to get him up to speed to a level he hadn’t had in the previous district.

But in a years time the principal made a speech about dialing back the academic elitism the current school had and the parents should emphasize university to their children, rather consider college or a trade. I promptly took my kid to a private school and announced it to the teachers of the school.

Hilariously, when fall came around guess who I met of the steps of the private school checking his own child in? The same principal who knew his kid was doomed under the regime that forced him to issue such bad advice.

Your child’s worst enemy and biggest influence is peer pressure, your child will only excel to the level of expectation of the school and his peers. If that is low, your child will drop with it. You must find the best schools that focus on excellence, not the sociological mumbo jumbo put out by the unions. Find excellence are you’re more likely to find success.

Schools and school districts rnot created equally. The unions have them carved up into special social engineering zones. And you don’t want to accidentally fall in with the short order cook cohort.

#98 Martin on 05.31.16 at 4:19 am

There are 108,706 realtors in Canada. That’s one for every 245 adults

Great argent

#99 Sticky prices...as if on 05.31.16 at 4:52 am

Again, it will be about jobs and GDP.

No jobs, no mortgage, no payments.

GDP in Canada tinkering with a recession and in last few months, NO good economic news (RE is 13% of Canada’s GDP, the other 85% is in trouble, save tourism at 2% of GDP).

When people lose jobs, they will run for the hills and sell at any price to monetize their RE gains; thus, prices will tumble fast – not slowly.

Current Canadian non-mortgage and mortgage debt levels will make that tumble in prices into an avalanche.

#100 james on 05.31.16 at 5:13 am

“How do you know the lower mainland won’t be the same as New York or other cities where prices continually climb to a point where only the elite rich can afford them?”

What a dolt.

Apparently he has never seen an affordability metric. Vancouver is worse than Manhattan or SF. Why? Salaries in those cities are higher. Vancouver’s housing makes San Jose and Cupertino blush, while its incomes are a pittance of Silicon Valley salaries.

Deluded fools. 800k for a crappy townhome in a crappy city with a median family income of 72k. Riiiight.

#101 Lost in Space on 05.31.16 at 5:14 am

sure you’ve seen this already

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-anatomy-of-a-housing-bubble/

#102 Gonkman on 05.31.16 at 7:37 am

Well I knew it wouldn’t happen… but some people did sign the Online Petition to have the TFSA Raised back to 10K.

Here is the Government’s Response when the Petition was tabled.

—————————————————————
Returning the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) annual contribution limit to $5,500 is consistent with the Government’s objective of making the tax system fairer and helping those who need it most.

In combination with other registered savings plans, a $5,500 TFSA annual contribution limit will permit most individuals to meet their ongoing savings needs in a tax-efficient manner. At the end of 2013, only 6.7 per cent of individuals eligible to have a TFSA had contributed the maximum TFSA amount.

For most individuals, the sum of TFSA annual contribution limits is $46,500 as of January 1, 2016.

Reinstating indexation of the TFSA annual contribution limit will maintain the limit’s real value over time.

The TFSA annual contribution limit for 2015 remains $10,000.

One of the first actions taken by the Government was to introduce a middle-class tax cut that is already benefiting nearly 9 million Canadians.

—————————————————————

Thanks JT for the Tax Cut as it benefits mostly higher income and not lower income Canadians.

Confirms 93% of Canadians need to learn about the TFSA and use it.

It’s the old well… only 6% are fully maxing it out so it isn’t fair to the rest… lol.

Well Garth… Some of us love our TFSAs and know what to use them for.

#103 jess on 05.31.16 at 7:57 am

“holes and homes”
Satyajit Das says the big four banks(australia) are more vulnerable than they appear (bloomberg)

#104 jess on 05.31.16 at 8:14 am

anti-mafia journalist Roberto Saviano:
“Leaving the EU means allowing the Qatari societies, the Mexican cartels, the Russia Mafia to gain even more power,” he said, highlighting the fact HSBC had paid $1.9bn in fines to the US government for financial irregularities in dealing with money that had come from cartels.

He added: “We have proof, we have evidence. Today, the criminal economy is bigger than the legal economy. Drug trafficking eclipses the revenue of oil firms. Cocaine is a £300bn-a-year business. Criminal capitalism is capitalism without rules. Mafia and organised crime does not abide by the rule of law – and most financial companies who reside offshore are exactly the same.”
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/may/29/roberto-saviano-london-is-heart-of-global-financial-corruption

#105 OffshoreObserver on 05.31.16 at 8:20 am

#82 S.Bby on 05.30.16 at 11:39 pm

#50 OffshoreObserver
Is your place the one with the orange tarps?

My diversified portfolio is worth North of 3 million, and growing. However, I am of Scottish ancestry and can’t help growing my pile.

The “orange tarps” cover the delightful Vietnamese “Mama’s” shipping container made into a store, where I buy my 30 cent cans of beer everyday–well, I am of the Scottish descent.

I have seen more tarps in South Burnaby, BTW.

And I didn’t see you post a picture of your girlfriend…?

#106 Ronaldo on 05.31.16 at 8:29 am

The side effects of Chinese currency devaluation.

https://katusaresearch.com/dragon-economics-101-how-chinese-money-will-supercharge-asset-prices/

#107 LP on 05.31.16 at 8:36 am

#17 Totalchaos on 05.30.16 at 6:52 pm

*********************************

Your post is a breath of fresh air! Thanks for telling it like it is.

When our kids (now adults with children of their own) were in school we endured a 6-week teachers’ strike. Looking around for ways to keep our kids learning we hit upon the idea of playing educational board games with them, taking them on nature hikes – one of them was in kindergarten so we got away with “hunting for hippopotimusses [spelling intentional] – reading with them by the hour. One of the best ideas, which continued for a few years, was to keep a good dictionary by the dining table. Every night they took turns opening the book at random, choosing a word and using it in a sentence. We ALL learned from that one.

Today our two are well-grounded adults, self educated as well as professionally taught, clued into the world with a great grasp of geopolitics. Their vocabularies are impressive, spelling and grammar almost faultless.

Now they are following some of those same habits with their own children. All of them, from the youngest 5-year old to the mid-teenager, are great conversationalists and, best of all, courteous and friendly.

Think it over Sophie; money won’t buy the best education you are seeking. It starts at home.

#108 TurnerNation on 05.31.16 at 8:37 am

The same fate awaits Kanada. Will ON or AB go BK first?
Crisis= opportunity for control. 1001 new laws signed against us every year.
Every country will get its turn.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4803273,00.html

Israeli made president Brazil’s Central Bank
As the suspension of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and corruption allegations loom in the background, a new appointment was announced: Ilan Goldfein, who was chief economist to Brazil’s largest private bank, will become president of the country’s largest bank

#109 H on 05.31.16 at 9:01 am

Sure. Canada will be raising rates. Gets used to a new word.

Decoupling. Going to hear that one alot.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadian-economy-grew-at-annual-rate-of-24-per-cent-in-first-quarter/article30216776/

#110 IHCTD9 on 05.31.16 at 9:01 am

#95 Hating Victoria on 05.31.16 at 3:24 am

Your child’s worst enemy and biggest influence is peer pressure, your child will only excel to the level of expectation of the school and his peers. If that is low, your child will drop with it. You must find the best schools that focus on excellence, not the sociological mumbo jumbo put out by the unions. Find excellence are you’re more likely to find success.

____________________________________________

This is more or less correct. But it’s much more than peer pressure. Just about any study you look at regarding academic success will cite overall demographics as a major if not a dominant factor in how kids do at school.

If your kid goes to a school with a lot of kids who do not have both parents at home, who’s parents are not well educated, are poor, or don’t speak English well, etc.. then your kids will be doing worse than if they went to a school full of kids who were brought up well in emotionally, socially, and financially sound families.

My kids go to a private school, it’s expensive. Yeah there are a few rich folks, but by far most are regular families with two incomes. Sacrifice is required, some financial strife for more than just a few also.

If you were parents looking to send your kids to this school, a quick look at the parents at the school are all you need to see to know it’s good.

#111 CJBob on 05.31.16 at 9:10 am

#78 Rook on 05.30.16 at 11:03 pm

But, what is your opinion on Victoria?
_______________________________
Yes, definitely ask a financial advisor living in Ontario and running a blog what the real estate market is like in Victoria and then use that to make your decision.

Where’s that guy with the really long, really useless dos-based charts that don’t tell us anything when we really need….never mind.

You might be surprised what I know about the somnolent capital of Canada. — Garth

#112 fancy_pants on 05.31.16 at 9:13 am

hilarious! maybe not so irrelevant in the distant future. have a listen. She forgot to mention, buy one now and they will throw in a straight jacket in pink and a helmet that sparkles.

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/irrelevantshow/irrelevant-show-april-30-2016-1.3556541/young-vancouver-couple-thrilled-to-find-4-square-foot-condo-to-call-their-own-1.3556547

#113 Disgusting and Criminal YVR RE Biz on 05.31.16 at 9:16 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/realtor-says-he-was-a-target-after-calling-out-unethical-practices/article30215834/

#114 fancy_pants on 05.31.16 at 9:18 am

I suggested to a cousin a few years back not to buy in Langley. thankfully he didn’t listen. i stopped listening too. upgraded to a large house last year. still a sellers market here in KW. prices up up up
don’t care either way if rates go to 5% or prices fall 30%.
live within your means.

#115 pierrepelecan on 05.31.16 at 9:21 am

Meanwhile in the world’s most overpriced real estate city and overrated place to live

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/05/30/fight-over-costco-parking-spot-turns-bloody.html

#116 Steerage Squalor on 05.31.16 at 9:30 am

#104 OffshoreObserver on 05.31.16 at 8:20 am

#82 S.Bby on 05.30.16 at 11:39 pm

#50 OffshoreObserver
Is your place the one with the orange tarps?

My diversified portfolio is worth North of 3 million, and growing. However, I am of Scottish ancestry and can’t help growing my pile.

The “orange tarps” cover the delightful Vietnamese “Mama’s” shipping container made into a store, where I buy my 30 cent cans of beer everyday–well, I am of the Scottish descent.

I have seen more tarps in South Burnaby, BTW.

And I didn’t see you post a picture of your girlfriend…?
..

You are a degenerate douchebag Boyd.

#117 Dan Duran on 05.31.16 at 9:37 am

In Toronto you can find condos that are selling for 30% more than in 1988. If that kind of appreciation shows there’s a bubble, your definition must be different than mine. Detached have increased much more, about 300% in 30 years. Still not outside the historical norm. We had a decade of stagnation in the 90’s when nobody wanted to touch real estate and the moment it started to go up, the bubble talk started. It was mostly new immigrants who bought at first, they found Canada cheap and they could own a home that was out of reach in their country. Today’s immigrants are even much wealthier. Canada is seen as a safe heaven. Locals feel they should not pay that much for a house, but they have no idea what goes on in the world in cities comparable to Toronto. In my home city in one of the poorest countries in Europe, on the street I was born, you can buy a 100 yr old stacked townhouse for 600k. But you don’t want to live there, believe me.. so you have Toronto and Vancouver, rated top cities to live in the world and prices are a bit higher, but incomes are 4 times higher and you think it’s a bubble, when so many dream to come here? Give me a break.

#118 Rational Optimist on 05.31.16 at 9:56 am

113 fancy_pants on 05.31.16 at 9:18 am

“still a sellers market here in KW. prices up up up”

I don’t see that at all. I hear people say it, but when I go and look at what the listing prices (not the selling prices, just the list) they don’t look a lot different than a few years ago. Maybe it’s just the neighbourhoods I travel in, but I see ‘For Sale’ signs go up and stay up for a number of weeks or a couple of months- which is normal. It seems pretty balanced on the whole.

#119 Emil on 05.31.16 at 9:59 am

DELETED

#120 VJGoh on 05.31.16 at 10:09 am

That’s not really advice for Sofie. Did you have any? I’m honestly interested.

I’m probably going to be moving to Vancouver in the next year–it’s not something that can be helped; I’m certainly not moving because I’m excited about paying $1000/month more in rent for a place the same size in a less desireable area (I live on the Plateau in Montreal right now).

Renting is still the better option for normal humans, obviously, but how can the city survive this? Unless wages make a huge jump, doesn’t this threaten the entire service sector? I met a server at the Chateau Laurier at easter brunch, and she said she and her partner moved to Ottawa because the rents were lower and they didn’t have to look at all the buildings filled with units that nobody was living in.

#121 Peter on 05.31.16 at 10:23 am

The condo did sell…

#122 S.Bby on 05.31.16 at 10:36 am

Here’s another goofy Real Estate agent ad:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/lawyer-ad-laser-beams-1.3608149

Real professionals, eh?

#123 Noel on 05.31.16 at 10:38 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/lawyer-ad-laser-beams-1.3608149

I’m shocked that this isn’t today’s topic…

…tomorrow’s picture I hope!

#124 IHCTD9 on 05.31.16 at 10:55 am

#104 OffshoreObserver on 05.31.16 at 8:20 am

And I didn’t see you post a picture of your girlfriend…?

__________________________________________

I dunno man, should I assume you are 35 or younger, or should I continue to feel a little weird about you and Kiki kicking it?

Ahhh, maybe it’s just me. Hope you are making it worth her while…

#125 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 11:06 am

#53 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:26 pm
Steven Hawking is confused, doesn’t understand the popularity of Trump.
He’s a clueless freak show, he don’t even understand the Universe is shrinking and either is real.
……………………………………………………………………
Gravity waves about as real as man made climate BS
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/05/30/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity/85173208/
Trump resonates with white males, the only group left not allowed to form a union., a community, or say in a loud voice, don’t tread on me. Everywhere you look the white straight male is under attack. Hell even the Gorilla killing has been culturally twisted.
If the kid was black, they would not have shot the gorilla.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/30/black-outrage-gorilla-shot-protect-white-privilege-just-one-problem/
Even a Rocket scientist can’t see the elephant in the room.
…………………………………………………………………
I am surprised Garth let you go off on your uncouth diatribe towards Stephen Hawking by calling him a “clueless freak show.” Stephan has an insidious disease (ALS) amyotrophic lateral sclerosis that robs one of their motor functions. This terrible disease used to be known as Lou Gehrig’s disease. Individuals affected by the disorder may ultimately lose the ability to initiate and control all voluntary movement. The disorder causes muscle weakness and atrophy throughout the body due to the degeneration of the upper and lower motor neurons. It is a slow imprisoning manner of dying and for someone as brilliant as Stephan Hawking it must be an abysmal sentence. Stephan Hawking has more intelligence and creative views than you could ever hope for.
As for you Smoking Man, you are a low life who lurks in the shadows and snipes at those weaker than yourself. Your demeanor defines your persona quite well. I would say that you should be ashamed of yourself however that would require a conscience on your part and I’m sure that you are a simply void of a personality.
You should look in the mirror and as you commented perhaps you are the clueless freak show.

#126 TurnerNation on 05.31.16 at 11:12 am

USD is saying shut this market DOWn boys.
Time to git er done for good.

#127 Jonathan on 05.31.16 at 11:22 am

#116 Dan Duran “In Toronto you can find condos that are selling for 30% more than in 1988.”

Can you tell me if you’re talking about adjusted price or absolute price? Because I did a quick calculation, assuming 1% annual inflation, something that’s $1 in 1988 would be equivalent of $1.32 in 2016…

2% annual inflation: $1.74 in 2016

#128 Blue-blooded Rentier from Vevey on 05.31.16 at 11:26 am

Listen up dawgs

There are quite a few decently priced PUT contracts on SPY clustred around the sweet spot of 190 due on September’s Triple Witchin‘.

Assuming you already have in place that ‘balanced and globally diversified, tax-efficient and liquid portfolio’ our graceful host is advising on and on, in the context of scandalously repressed volatility it wouldn’t hurt to overlay a tiny hedging strategy on SPX.

It is to be expected that populace will become increasingly aware of the weakening state of global economy, worsening career prospects and progressively tightening credit conditions. IMNSHO, during this summer I wouldn’t be surprised if we are to witness a drastic change in the perceptions and attitudes of market operators of all sorts.

Just my two cents’ worth.

#129 Fed-up on 05.31.16 at 11:40 am

#116 Dan Duran on 05.31.16 at 9:37 am

In Toronto you can find condos that are selling for 30% more than in 1988. If that kind of appreciation shows there’s a bubble, your definition must be different than mine. Detached have increased much more, about 300% in 30 years. Still not outside the historical norm. We had a decade of stagnation in the 90’s when nobody wanted to touch real estate and the moment it started to go up, the bubble talk started. It was mostly new immigrants who bought at first, they found Canada cheap and they could own a home that was out of reach in their country. Today’s immigrants are even much wealthier. Canada is seen as a safe heaven. Locals feel they should not pay that much for a house, but they have no idea what goes on in the world in cities comparable to Toronto. In my home city in one of the poorest countries in Europe, on the street I was born, you can buy a 100 yr old stacked townhouse for 600k. But you don’t want to live there, believe me.. so you have Toronto and Vancouver, rated top cities to live in the world and prices are a bit higher, but incomes are 4 times higher and you think it’s a bubble, when so many dream to come here? Give me a break.
———————————————————————————–

Wow so I guess you crawling out of some shit hole in Europe and comparing it to Toronto and Vancouver makes you a greater authority in determining as to whether or not we’re in property bubble than the IMF, the World Bank, The Economist, the Deutsche Bank and almost every respected Economist in North America.

Good to know.

#130 family beagle on 05.31.16 at 12:03 pm

Just a reminder if you can’t afford a place, Sophie…

Christy Clark – Making Shelter Unaffordable for the Average British Columbian.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-christy-clark-trade-mission-asia-real-estate-1.3604817

Christy doesn’t cater to you, Sophie, yet she’s the smug face of all your woe. She’s off to find better people than us and bring them back.

….

Mr. Turner, a road paved with realtors… I can only speculate.

….

#57 Aggregator on 05.30.16 at 9:45 pm
Interesting commentary, thanks.

#131 Ace Goodheart on 05.31.16 at 12:13 pm

This is a very interesting (if long and slightly choppy) read:

https://www.jeffreyteam.com/is-there-a-housing-bubble-in-toronto/

The wonderful question everyone is now asking, is of course “if house prices continue to go up in a linear fashion, like they have been doing, increasing 15% year over year, by 2030 a house will cost millions of dollars. Who can afford that?”

This makes sense. I mean, the value of money never changes, is a constant that persists throughout time and a dollar is a dollar.

Why, back in 1930, a new home could be purchased for $3,845.00, a brand new car would set you back a cool $600.00, gasoline was ten cents per US Gallon, and a middle class person’s after tax income was around $1900.00 per year.

Wait, what? I thought money was a constant, never changing thing? Those numbers don’t seem right….

Remember, folks, currency inflation. It is real. It is caused by governments borrowing money and then having to turn on the printing presses to pay it all back. It happens over, and over, and over again. Sometimes, it happens quite dramatically (remember Greece’s Drachma, or the Italian Lira?). Sometimes it wipes out the fortunes of millions of people (the rapid depreciation of the Mexican Peso?).

Governments, as a rule, never, ever, ever, ever pay back the money they borrow. There used to be a rule in ancient times, that when governments got too much into debt (like they always do), the debts would all be wiped clean and they would just start fresh. That rule is now gone, replaced with printing presses. Governments will always spend more than they collect in taxes, and they will always pay back their debt by printing money.

What do we know right now about the Ontario and Canadian Federal Governments borrowing habits, over the past ten years? Are they all in the black, owing no money to anyone, fully paid up?

Say interest rates rise by 2 percentage points. Who is the first to become insolvent? Trick question, the answer is of course, governments. What do governments do when they become insolvent? They print money. What does that cause? Inflation.

Get ready for it folks. Yes likely in 2030, a house in Toronto will be worth millions. But those will be 2030 millions, not 2017 millions. There is a big difference.

#132 March GDP Negative... on 05.31.16 at 12:41 pm

Being a doomer today, but you have go to worry about the recent major GDP sector results:

-Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction contracted 2.8% in March, following a 0.6% decline in February.

-Retail trade contracted 1.3% in March. The decline was widespread across all types of retailers. The most significant contributor to the decline was a 3.9% decrease at motor vehicles and parts dealers, which had peaked in February.

-Manufacturing output declined 0.2% in March, after falling 0.9% in February.

-Construction edged up 0.1% in March, mainly as a result of a fourth consecutive monthly rise in residential construction.

-Transportation and warehousing services fell 0.6% in March, primarily as a result of a 4.0% decline in rail transportation.

Due to Ft. McMurray fires, 2nd quarter GDP expected to contract, per BNN from Statistics Canada.

Go YVR RE FOMO!

Almost forgot YVR, Accommodation and food services down 0.3%.

#133 A box in the Sky on 05.31.16 at 1:21 pm

Kind of embarrassing to see so many people mock the woman over wanting to spend money on her kids education.

Even if the perceived value is not as good as you think for reasons x,y,z.

The whole point of having a career and making money is to be able to pay for things that YOU value.

Sophie: If you place such a high value on your kids education during the early years of grade school then just bit the bullet and pay the extra $1000/month in rent. You may have to sacrifice other parts of your lifestyle to make it happen, but that’s what life is all about.

A lot of people on this blog are cheap ****s rather than value seekers

(just go look at the post on leasing cars and the amount of people feeling morally superior because they ride some beater into the dirt even though they could comfortably afford something better …. and it was never “I drive a beater so I can spend more on travel, leisure, etc, it was a “I drive a beater because I’m cheap as ****”)

#134 Dan Duran on 05.31.16 at 1:33 pm

@Fed-up That ‘shithole’ as you put it was a communist country.. which is what you want to make of Canada. True, living conditions were not great, but we did have a good education system, which allowed me and my wife to have our masters degrees recognized here and make more money than you and buy a home from under your nose, because you thought it was too expensive. What makes me an expert is that I traveled the world and took notice of what is actually happening, unlike you, who lived in the same hole (shit* or not) all your life. And those institutions you mention are staffed with 24 year-old college graduates (many coming from said ‘shitholes’) paid $25 an hour to put out their ‘expert’ reports.

#135 Jon on 05.31.16 at 1:52 pm

Housing minister’s comments about ‘whining’ people are insulting: critic

http://www.news1130.com/2016/05/26/housing-minister-whining-critic/

#136 Smoking Man on 05.31.16 at 1:55 pm

#124 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 11:06 am
#53 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:26 pm
Steven Hawking is confused, doesn’t understand the popularity of Trump.
He’s a clueless freak show, he don’t even understand the Universe is shrinking and either is real.
……………………………………………………………………
Gravity waves about as real as man made climate BS
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/05/30/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity/85173208/
Trump resonates with white males, the only group left not allowed to form a union., a community, or say in a loud voice, don’t tread on me. Everywhere you look the white straight male is under attack. Hell even the Gorilla killing has been culturally twisted.
If the kid was black, they would not have shot the gorilla.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/30/black-outrage-gorilla-shot-protect-white-privilege-just-one-problem/
Even a Rocket scientist can’t see the elephant in the room.
…………………………………………………………………
I am surprised Garth let you go off on your uncouth diatribe towards Stephen Hawking by calling him a “clueless freak show.” Stephan has an insidious disease (ALS) amyotrophic lateral sclerosis that robs one of their motor functions. This terrible disease used to be known as Lou Gehrig’s disease. Individuals affected by the disorder may ultimately lose the ability to initiate and control all voluntary movement. The disorder causes muscle weakness and atrophy throughout the body due to the degeneration of the upper and lower motor neurons. It is a slow imprisoning manner of dying and for someone as brilliant as Stephan Hawking it must be an abysmal sentence. Stephan Hawking has more intelligence and creative views than you could ever hope for.
As for you Smoking Man, you are a low life who lurks in the shadows and snipes at those weaker than yourself. Your demeanor defines your persona quite well. I would say that you should be ashamed of yourself however that would require a conscience on your part and I’m sure that you are a simply void of a personality.
You should look in the mirror and as you commented perhaps you are the clueless freak show.
……………..
clueless freak show was a reference to his brain.
Learn to read.

What kind of animal do you think I am. Where did you read physical appearance.

He’s wrong on everything he says.

#137 Smoking Man on 05.31.16 at 2:15 pm

#125 TurnerNation on 05.31.16 at 11:12 am
USD is saying shut this market DOWn boys.
Time to git er done for good.
……………..

Hope you bought some.

A reminder from the wizard of everything The Smoking Man

#41 Smoking Man on 04.28.16 at 8:00 pm
Usdcad I sence a bottom. Don’t total trust my crystal ball since the fever. But I’m going to put on a small bet and see what happens.

My small bet is growing….Ahhhhhhhhh

#138 Brenda on 05.31.16 at 2:24 pm

I don’t understand all the whining and crying from those living in Vancouver. If you don’t like it get out, it is really very simple. What is wrong with Prince George, Smithers, Fort St John, any place north? Living is affordable , houses are cheaper to buy, it doesn’t take 45 minutes to pick up a jug of mik, nature is all around and there is way less people and traffic.

#139 Infinite Black Holes of BS on 05.31.16 at 2:28 pm

#135 Smoking Man on 05.31.16 at 1:55 pm

#124 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 11:06 am
#53 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:26 pm
Steven Hawking is confused, doesn’t understand the popularity of Trump.
He’s a clueless freak show, he don’t even understand the Universe is shrinking and either is real.
……………………………………………………………………
Gravity waves about as real as man made climate BS
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/05/30/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity/85173208/
Trump resonates with white males, the only group left not allowed to form a union., a community, or say in a loud voice, don’t tread on me. Everywhere you look the white straight male is under attack. Hell even the Gorilla killing has been culturally twisted.
If the kid was black, they would not have shot the gorilla.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/30/black-outrage-gorilla-shot-protect-white-privilege-just-one-problem/
Even a Rocket scientist can’t see the elephant in the room.
…………………………………………………………………
I am surprised Garth let you go off on your uncouth diatribe towards Stephen Hawking by calling him a “clueless freak show.” Stephan has an insidious disease (ALS) amyotrophic lateral sclerosis that robs one of their motor functions. This terrible disease used to be known as Lou Gehrig’s disease. Individuals affected by the disorder may ultimately lose the ability to initiate and control all voluntary movement. The disorder causes muscle weakness and atrophy throughout the body due to the degeneration of the upper and lower motor neurons. It is a slow imprisoning manner of dying and for someone as brilliant as Stephan Hawking it must be an abysmal sentence. Stephan Hawking has more intelligence and creative views than you could ever hope for.
As for you Smoking Man, you are a low life who lurks in the shadows and snipes at those weaker than yourself. Your demeanor defines your persona quite well. I would say that you should be ashamed of yourself however that would require a conscience on your part and I’m sure that you are a simply void of a personality.
You should look in the mirror and as you commented perhaps you are the clueless freak show.
……………..
clueless freak show was a reference to his brain.
Learn to read.

What kind of animal do you think I am. Where did you read physical appearance.

He’s wrong on everything he says.

……
The BS joking man.. takes a break from running his billion dollar hedge fund in Boston!!.. to try his hand at quantum physics.. a break from his other hobby of heart surgery.

#140 Dan Duran on 05.31.16 at 2:30 pm

@Jon I know of no time when people thought housing was affordable. Sure, it is less so now than it was 20 years ago, but guess what.. it’s still more affordable that it will be in the future. In 40 years many will think these were the good old days when you could buy a condo for 400k. Now, you can petition the government to stop this: stop immigration, stop foreign investment, raise interest rates, property taxes or whatever you think might be to your advantage at the moment. But you will have to live with the consequences of that (if the govt actually listens) .. A little isolated place where nothing is happening, where your kids won’t get a job (even at Tim Hortons) and they’ll have to leave the place anyway. But it’ll be nice and quiet, I’ll give you that. But it’s peace and quiet right now in many other places, if that’s what you wish for. Oh, you have a job in the city? Oh well, QED.

#141 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 2:36 pm

#135 Smoking Man on 05.31.16 at 1:55 pm

#124 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 11:06 am
#53 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:26 pm
Steven Hawking is confused, doesn’t understand the popularity of Trump.
He’s a clueless freak show, he don’t even understand the Universe is shrinking and either is real.
……………………………………………………………………
Gravity waves about as real as man made climate BS
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/05/30/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity/85173208/
Trump resonates with white males, the only group left not allowed to form a union., a community, or say in a loud voice, don’t tread on me. Everywhere you look the white straight male is under attack. Hell even the Gorilla killing has been culturally twisted.
If the kid was black, they would not have shot the gorilla.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/30/black-outrage-gorilla-shot-protect-white-privilege-just-one-problem/
Even a Rocket scientist can’t see the elephant in the room.
…………………………………………………………………
I am surprised Garth let you go off on your uncouth diatribe towards Stephen Hawking by calling him a “clueless freak show.” Stephan has an insidious disease (ALS) amyotrophic lateral sclerosis that robs one of their motor functions. This terrible disease used to be known as Lou Gehrig’s disease. Individuals affected by the disorder may ultimately lose the ability to initiate and control all voluntary movement. The disorder causes muscle weakness and atrophy throughout the body due to the degeneration of the upper and lower motor neurons. It is a slow imprisoning manner of dying and for someone as brilliant as Stephan Hawking it must be an abysmal sentence. Stephan Hawking has more intelligence and creative views than you could ever hope for.
As for you Smoking Man, you are a low life who lurks in the shadows and snipes at those weaker than yourself. Your demeanor defines your persona quite well. I would say that you should be ashamed of yourself however that would require a conscience on your part and I’m sure that you are a simply void of a personality.
You should look in the mirror and as you commented perhaps you are the clueless freak show.
……………..
clueless freak show was a reference to his brain.
Learn to read.
What kind of animal do you think I am. Where did you read physical appearance.
He’s wrong on everything he says
……………………………………………………………….
You know very well what you were implying.
You blithering idiot, that’s what ALS is, , It is a rapidly progressive, invariably fatal neurological disease that attacks the nerve cells (neurons) responsible for controlling voluntary muscles (muscle action we are able to control, such as those in the arms, legs, and face). The disease belongs to a group of disorders known as motor neuron diseases, which are characterized by the gradual degeneration and death of motor neurons.
Motor neurons are nerve cells located in the brain, brain stem, and spinal cord that serve as controlling units and vital communication links between the nervous system and the voluntary muscles of the body.
You sir are a pretentious blithering chump. Until you can produce set of real credentials exceeding Stephan Hawking, and I don’t mean you’re your self-imposed University of Google professor of herdenomics rubbish then please sod off!

#142 Mr. Frugal on 05.31.16 at 2:56 pm

#140 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 2:36 pm

You know very well what you were implying.
You blithering idiot, that’s what ALS is, , It is a rapidly progressive, invariably fatal neurological disease that attacks the nerve cells (neurons) responsible for controlling voluntary muscles (muscle action we are able to control, such as those in the arms, legs, and face). The disease belongs to a group of disorders known as motor neuron diseases, which are characterized by the gradual degeneration and death of motor neurons.
Motor neurons are nerve cells located in the brain, brain stem, and spinal cord that serve as controlling units and vital communication links between the nervous system and the voluntary muscles of the body.
You sir are a pretentious blithering chump. Until you can produce set of real credentials exceeding Stephan Hawking, and I don’t mean you’re your self-imposed University of Google professor of herdenomics rubbish then please sod off!

============================

Stephen Hawking is a theoretical physicist. How does that make him an expert on U.S. politics?

BTW, You have anger issues and should seek help.

#143 TRT on 05.31.16 at 2:58 pm

No acknowledgment of foreign money inflows here. Laughable.

Meanwhile, any residential property over 1.25 acres is subject to capital gains…so now deals for these places are taking place overseas while papers here show only stable sales price to minimize tax payable for large tracts of land. Laughable.

#144 IHCTD9 on 05.31.16 at 3:15 pm

#137 Brenda on 05.31.16 at 2:24 pm
I don’t understand all the whining and crying from those living in Vancouver. If you don’t like it get out, it is really very simple. What is wrong with Prince George, Smithers, Fort St John, any place north? Living is affordable , houses are cheaper to buy, it doesn’t take 45 minutes to pick up a jug of mik, nature is all around and there is way less people and traffic

———

Neither do I, and I’ve asked why folks go broke for life to own a house in a big city.

I got answers like:

1. Everything I need is close (ya -same as a small city)

2. Best arts and culture in big cities (you got change after the mortgage payment and taxes?)

3. More jobs, better pay (but more people fighting for those jobs, and these days, the money is hardly any better)

4. I’m afraid of the conservatives/rednecks outside of the GTA (don’t worry, the list of things we’ll kick your ass for is really quite short).

I’ve come to the conclusion that it is an acquired taste – like chewing tobbacco, or eel.

#145 45north on 05.31.16 at 3:26 pm

aggregator: More interestingly, CMHC’s Q1 data reveals more banks resorting to covered bonds as a funding source for mortgages. The total amount of covered bonds (legislative only) in Q1 stood at $105.3 billion, of which 57% of 2016 issuance was denominated in EUR for whatever reason. Covered bonds are protected by legislative laws that give creditors senior status over shareholders in the case of insolvency. If your mortgage happens to be pooled in that bond (which the bank will never tell you, nor do they even know other then people working at the trading desks), investors own the property title, not you.

covered bonds look a lot like mortgage backed securities?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage-backed_security

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/jufa/jufa_034.cfm

in the case of mortgage backed securities, in the US, investors could insist that the banks that issued the MBS repurchase the original mortgages in case they defaulted.

#146 Smoking Man on 05.31.16 at 3:32 pm

#140 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 2:36 pm
#135 Smoking Man on 05.31.16 at 1:55 pm

#124 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 11:06 am
#53 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:26 pm
Steven Hawking is confused, doesn’t understand the popularity of Trump.
He’s a clueless freak show, he don’t even understand the Universe is shrinking and either is real.
……………………………………………………………………
Gravity waves about as real as man made climate BS
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/05/30/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity/85173208/
Trump resonates with white males, the only group left not allowed to form a union., a community, or say in a loud voice, don’t tread on me. Everywhere you look the white straight male is under attack. Hell even the Gorilla killing has been culturally twisted.
If the kid was black, they would not have shot the gorilla.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/30/black-outrage-gorilla-shot-protect-white-privilege-just-one-problem/
Even a Rocket scientist can’t see the elephant in the room.
…………………………………………………………………
I am surprised Garth let you go off on your uncouth diatribe towards Stephen Hawking by calling him a “clueless freak show.” Stephan has an insidious disease (ALS) amyotrophic lateral sclerosis that robs one of their motor functions. This terrible disease used to be known as Lou Gehrig’s disease. Individuals affected by the disorder may ultimately lose the ability to initiate and control all voluntary movement. The disorder causes muscle weakness and atrophy throughout the body due to the degeneration of the upper and lower motor neurons. It is a slow imprisoning manner of dying and for someone as brilliant as Stephan Hawking it must be an abysmal sentence. Stephan Hawking has more intelligence and creative views than you could ever hope for.
As for you Smoking Man, you are a low life who lurks in the shadows and snipes at those weaker than yourself. Your demeanor defines your persona quite well. I would say that you should be ashamed of yourself however that would require a conscience on your part and I’m sure that you are a simply void of a personality.
You should look in the mirror and as you commented perhaps you are the clueless freak show.
……………..
clueless freak show was a reference to his brain.
Learn to read.
What kind of animal do you think I am. Where did you read physical appearance.
He’s wrong on everything he says
……………………………………………………………….
You know very well what you were implying.
You blithering idiot, that’s what ALS is, , It is a rapidly progressive, invariably fatal neurological disease that attacks the nerve cells (neurons) responsible for controlling voluntary muscles (muscle action we are able to control, such as those in the arms, legs, and face). The disease belongs to a group of disorders known as motor neuron diseases, which are characterized by the gradual degeneration and death of motor neurons.
Motor neurons are nerve cells located in the brain, brain stem, and spinal cord that serve as controlling units and vital communication links between the nervous system and the voluntary muscles of the body.
You sir are a pretentious blithering chump. Until you can produce set of real credentials exceeding Stephan Hawking, and I don’t mean you’re your self-imposed University of Google professor of herdenomics rubbish then please sod off!.
………………

Dear God another credentials worshiper.

What did Hawking ever invent? what patents does he have. I got 4.

He’s just a brand, that’s it.

Tesla had little or no credentials and look what he did.
All from speaking with Aliens, go figure that one out.

#147 jess on 05.31.16 at 3:34 pm

Habré’s trial is the first in the world in which the courts of one country prosecuted the former ruler of another for alleged human rights crimes.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/05/30/chads-ex-dictator-convicted-atrocities

Habre’s trial underscored the importance of universal jurisdiction, Human Rights Watch said. That principle under international law allows national courts to prosecute the most serious crimes even when committed abroad, by a foreigner, and against foreign victims.

In March 2015, a court in Chad convicted 20 top security agents of Habré’s government on torture and murder charges.

Habré’s one-party rule was marked by widespread atrocities, including waves of ethnic cleansing…”

“The United States and France viewed Habré as a bulwark against Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, and so supported him throughout his rule despite clear evidence of his abuses against his own people. Under President Ronald Reagan, the US gave covert CIA paramilitary support to help Habré take power.”

#148 Brazil ex-pat on 05.31.16 at 4:02 pm

#131 March GDP Negative… on 05.31.16 at 12:41 pm
Being a doomer today, but you have go to worry about the recent major GDP sector results:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

And this is if you even believe the phony Jan/Fed numbers.

#149 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 4:13 pm

#145 Smoking Man on 05.31.16 at 3:32 pm
#140 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 2:36 pm
#135 Smoking Man on 05.31.16 at 1:55 pm
#124 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 11:06 am
#53 Smoking Man on 05.30.16 at 9:26 pm
Steven Hawking is confused, doesn’t understand the popularity of Trump.
He’s a clueless freak show, he don’t even understand the Universe is shrinking and either is real.
……………………………………………………………………
Gravity waves about as real as man made climate BS
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/05/30/stephen-hawking-donald-trump-popularity/85173208/

You sir are a pretentious blithering chump. Until you can produce set of real credentials exceeding Stephan Hawking, and I don’t mean you’re your self-imposed University of Google professor of herdenomics rubbish then please sod off!.
………………
Dear God another credentials worshiper.
What did Hawking ever invent? what patents does he have. I got 4.
He’s just a brand, that’s it.
Tesla had little or no credentials and look what he did.
All from speaking with Aliens, go figure that one out.
………………………………………………………………….
Tesla? you come back with Tesla? What has he got to do with your derogatory insult to Stephan Hawking? Well expert you have four patents good for you. I hope they are useful. Do you have one that pulls your head out of your ass?
How many books have you published?
By the way nice command of the Queens English there, what grade did they boot you out of school.
Anyway your still an embarrassment, and an ill-informed individual.

http://www.hawking.org.uk/

#150 Smoking Man you’re an embarrassment on 05.31.16 at 4:15 pm

Dear God another credentials worshiper.
……………………………………………………………..
Smoking Man Stop publishing your own credentials at the end of your little diatribes.

Dr Smoking Man PHD Herdenomics…………………..

#151 tunano on 05.31.16 at 4:18 pm

Amazing what forms the basis for so many people’s decisions… Sitting in a Taco Time for lunch one afternoon I eavesdropped on a couple next table over with their two young boys enjoying their tator tots. The dad was suggesting to his wife that they should really list their house and sell, considering how much similar homes were going for. She gazed up at him thru her eyelash extensions and looked victimized, “You mean, leave our neighbourhood?” End of discussion. She then went on to describe with infinite detail the way she wanted to have the boys’ haircuts done at the barbers. Seriously, they talked longer about that than about any financial decision.

#152 Marco Russo on 05.31.16 at 4:42 pm

#133 Dan Duran on 05.31.16 at 1:33 pm
@Fed-up That ‘shithole’ as you put it was a communist country.. which is what you want to make of Canada. True, living conditions were not great, but we did have a good education system, which allowed me and my wife to have our masters degrees recognized here and make more money than you and buy a home from under your nose, because you thought it was too expensive. What makes me an expert is that I traveled the world and took notice of what is actually happening, unlike you, who lived in the same hole (shit* or not) all your life. And those institutions you mention are staffed with 24 year-old college graduates (many coming from said ‘shitholes’) paid $25 an hour to put out their ‘expert’ reports
——————————————————————————–

I wasn’t aware that the IMF and World Bank were staffed 24 year old interns that provide all the reports and information for what goes on in the financial world.

We will rely on your data from now on.

#153 Interstellar Star Stuff on 05.31.16 at 4:57 pm

#145 Smoking Man on 05.31.16 at 3:32 pm

Tesla had little or no credentials and look what he did.
All from speaking with Aliens, go figure that one out.
_______________________________

A super engineer, obsessed with the number three. We’ll ignore his eugenics ramblings though…..

In the last days of wonder
When spirits still flew
Where we sat holding hands
In half-darkened rooms

Nicola Tesla in the Hotel New Yorker
Nursing sick pigeons by the open window
Dreamed of a death ray to disintegrate matter
Detected Morse Code from far away planets

He couldn’t stand the touch of hair or of skin
But stroked feathers gently on trembling wings
Drew plans for a camera to photograph thoughts
Vacuum tube lights, wireless phones

In the last days of wonder
When spirits still flew
Round bubbling test tubes
In half-darkened rooms

Edison and Westinghouse
In silk brocade
Ate oysters rockefeller
With French champagne

But Tesla grew thin
Eating only saltines
Going days in his lab
Without any sleep

Dreaming of God
As an x-ray beam
He was hit by a cab
While crossing the street

Lying on his bedspread
He struggled to breathe
The light bulbs exploded
The air filled with wings

In the last days of wonder
When spirits still flew
Tesla vacated
His half-darkened room

#154 Dan on 05.31.16 at 6:08 pm

Interpol can stop this developers whoring little party of money laundering. But there is no Interpol in Canada.
There is no corruption either. Just favors between friends….

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.31.16 at 9:55 pm

@#133 &139 Dan Delusional

Ahhh yes a former regugee from a communist country that got his Masters Degree in “Life”.
Who mocks respected journals such as the Economist as “shit”.
Wow!

What’s your job now?
Real estate salesman?

#156 M on 05.31.16 at 10:58 pm

PEOPLE equal not ALWAYS “human beings”

..can anyone imagine Jenny the Fed pole dancing in Depends ?

:)

PS Gartho baby… drop those damn dogs… I use bipeds

#157 Znueniboegg on 06.01.16 at 10:28 am

We have been thinking of selling our house in Van, pocket the profits and rent, as Garth has been suggesting. However, not only is renting a house, we are 5, crazy expensive, there is simply nothing available. So that’s simply not a viable option. And moving to outside of greater van, as some here have suggested, is simply not an option from a job perspective.

To the fellow who’s been so rudely and consistently insulting Smoking Man for his comments regarding Steven Hawking, I’d like to say’ it’s one thing to have an argument with an idiot, it’s an entirely different story to loose that argument… And then revert to name calling, so please do us all a favor and simply shut up. Smoking man at least has his own, while often slightly eccentric, opinion and makes for interesting and funny reading.

The reason trump is soo popular? Very simple, the common people in the US are fed up with the political establishment, left or right, and the kindergarten type behaviour they have shown in Washington. The people are trying to send a message. The more the party and the media pushed him away the more popular he got…all they needed to do to stop him was to ….. Embrace him! Too late now, and given the 2 candidates they can choose from, I’m willing to bet that trump will win, and win easily…. That should make for a fun, and very scary,ride…..

#158 Snoopy on 06.01.16 at 11:14 am

Scotiabank CEO also says that he would be in favor of the government INCREASING THE MINIMUM DOWNPAYMENT:

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=881398

#159 Snoopy on 06.01.16 at 1:34 pm

While the Scotiabank encourages our government to tighten rules, Meridian lowers its 5 year fixed to 2.44%.

If Poloz and Morneau don’t tighten real fast, they will go down in history as the key officials that had the power to fix the problem, but didn’t.