Derek lives in Ottawa, thinks the dawn of T2 means house prices there will stop rusting (more civil servants coming) and believes this blog is tragic. At least we agree on one thing.
“I understand that my thinking below runs counter to your theme of housing being BAD, but take a quick look at the numbers,” he says, turning out to be yet another person who badly needs to justify what he’s already done.
“I live in Ottawa and we just bought a 4-Bed, 3-Bath suburban house (around 2,200 sq ft) for around $475K. To rent the same place would be around $2,200. So by buying (we paid cash), we will be saving around $26K in rent per year. Take off $4,500 for taxes and perhaps $5,000 per year maintenance and an extra $500 for insurance and the net savings work out to $16K per year. So we are basically getting a tax-free 3.3% yield on our money by buying (plus any appreciation- if that happens). I understand that is not a great return, but as a diversifier (the house will be less than 20% of our net worth), why not?”
For the record, real estate ain’t bad. If it was, I wouldn’t own any. I do. But what it bad is concentrating your net worth in a single asset. Especially one whose value depends on cheap money and HGTV house lust, both of which are now running on fumes. If Derek’s numbers are correct, it sounds like he can afford a house and it makes sense. I just hope he’s not a senior Policy Analyst for the Department of Finance.
First, you can lease an almost-new suburban in an Ottawa burb for $1,600 these days. In fact, rents have been going down. (Here’s one. ) That means the price-to-rent ratio is about 25, even for an “affordable” sub-$500,000 pile. And remember the formula:
- Price-to-rent ratio of 15 or less – buy the sucker. You’ll save money.
- Price-to-rent ratio of 16 to 20 – you’ll be money ahead renting.
- Price-to-rent ratio above 21 – your landlord is a benevolent deity. Or an idiot. Or a realtor with an A7.
And what of Derek’s ‘proof’ that he is actually making a decent ROI by spending $475,000 (no financing) to own a house he could have rented for $19,200 a year? Hmm. Well, property tax, maintenance, insurance, renos and such aside, if he’d invested $475,000 and received a modest 6% return the cash flow would be $2,375 a month. That means (a) his portfolio pays the rent, (b) he keeps his $475,000 liquid and (c) lives in the same house.
In other words, in a market like Ottawa where prices are not hockey-sticking (and never will) there seems to be no financial argument for tying up even a modest half-million bucks on a pile of bricks (actually for that you get metal siding and fake stucco). If the goal is financial independence and the accumulation of wealth, real estate’s no longer a good play, now that we’ve reached the end of the road for ultra-low interest rates. Of course, this ignores the powerful nesting instinct so many people succumb to, or the irrational logic your mom taught you that owning beats renting. It doesn’t.
Well, here’s some news from the Bank of Canada that Derek should also contemplate. As you probably know, the bank did not drop its key interest rate today. In fact, markets now believe this will never happen again. Two months ago the odds of a rate drop some time before the end of 2016 were 40%. Now they’re now heading for single digits. Meanwhile the odds of a US rate hike are traveling hard in the other direction – roughly 60% by summer and 80% by autumn.
Some key language changed in the central bank’s communication this morning. It has long warned about what debt-snorfling piggies we’ve become, but in polite terms – saying household vulnerabilities were ‘edging’ higher. Now they have simply ‘moved higher’. That may not seem to be relevant, but Donald Trump wasn’t either until three months ago. In fact the bank is singling out family debt and cash-flow issues just as a new survey finds a whopping 37% of people are occasionally ‘falling short’ on monthly bill-paying. But has that stopped them from buying trophy houses? Nah.
So we’re at the bottom of the rate curve. Banker dudes know full well any cut would only make those piggies and vulnerabilities fatter, blowing more air into the YVR and GTA gasbags, leading to a landing we’d never forget. Without a doubt the Bank of Canada will resist the upward rate pressure coming from the US for as long as possible, but at the risk of trashing the dollar and goosing inflation. Inevitably, it will move. But long before that, mortgage rates will have reacted. Look for that process to start in weeks.
As always, buy a house if you want.
But don’t use a blog to tell us how smart you are. That’s pathetic.
164 comments ↓
BofC, a bunch of Political Hacks
Finally first again!
Hey Boom,I thought you might like to look at this map.
It is a map of the richest person in each state of America.
The biggest surprise for me was that a handful of states still don’t have Billionaires…
M41BC
http://imgur.com/cQ0f5iL
Foreign (specifically Chinese) money is a non-factor here in Vancouver? I beg to differ. Look what I found in the mail (note how many times the word “Chinese” comes up):
http://imgur.com/YIVMMQm
Am I a xenophobe or just realistic?
No. Only gullible. — Garth
Hi Garth:
I saw this online, seems to suggest that renting is not the better choice much of the time.
Wondering what you thoughts are on it:
Is Renting Always A Waste Of Money?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAMeI4uHAFE
make money with your own cat licking business
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60izm6-Y8I
Boomers had it easy. Unlike this 20- something couple with sporadic income which had to spend 40k on reno upgrades to their townhouse, after Bank of Mon extended:
http://torontolife.com/city/life/rebecca-thorpe-chris-mcknight-cost-of-living/
The bigger issue is why anyone would choose to live in Ottawa?
Derek…Garth did the same thing to you ,that the dog did to the pillow in the photo.
Ripped…you…apart…
M41BC
Renting in T2-ville, and Gartho’s right on the money. $1600 a month for a $475K house. Price to Rent of ~24.75. Thank you land lady :)
rumor has it
harper asked garth for a job
Rents are definitely down here, especially for 3BR towns, which are a dime a dozen. Prices are coming down too.
A report in the Post today about Vancouver says yearly earnings for 25 to 34 year olds in B.C. is down $9000 from four decades ago. This can’t be possible. People in that age group probably only earned $9000 a year in 1980. Maybe it was the grammar? Still, looks tough in Vancouvr for millennials.
2016 is finally the year that Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets peaked. Next year will be the golden year for buying opportunity.
So as requested last Saturday, FIREcracker posted her financial data. Or at least the first part of it.
http://www.millennial-revolution.com/invest/the-breakdown-part-1-god-we-were-spendy-back-then/
Talking about Vancouver real estate the talking heads on msn today said it would take 23 years to save a 20% down payment on a house in Vancouver right now. Its crystal clear how this is going to end and its going to be a mess. That’s unless some genius can figure out a way to add 50 years of life expectancy to your life then you could carry a 75 year mortgage and have your glamorous downtown shack in Vancouver paid off by the time your say 130 just in time for them to ship you to the retirement home, Not to shabby.
@#13 Lee
”
People in that age group probably only earned $9000 a year in 1980. ”
********************************************
Ummm.
While my 1980 T4 was certainly embarrassing at the time it was considerably more than 20k.
Ya might wanna rethink that estimate up by 10 k or more.
Return versus cash yield…
Garth said:
if he’d invested $475,000 and received a modest 6% return the cash flow would be $2,375 a month.
*****************************************
So the 6% return is ALL cash? If one has a balanced portfolio is there really a 6% cash yield?
If so, what is the total average annual return, with capital gains that is expected?
A typical 60/40 has a 3.5% cash yield, the rest being cap gains and distributions. But you know that. — Garth
#4
Foreign (specifically Chinese) money is a non-factor here in Vancouver? I beg to differ. Look what I found in the mail (note how many times the word “Chinese” comes up):
http://imgur.com/YIVMMQm
Am I a xenophobe or just realistic?
No. Only gullible. — Garth
—————-
Realtor spending her precious time to learn conversational Mandarin solely with an intent to fool fool fool?
Foreign chinese dude is an imaginary construct?
Chinese-linked real estate transactions only have a 5% effect?
Who is the naive one?
#13 Lee on 05.25.16 at 6:47 pm
”A report in the Post today about Vancouver says yearly earnings for 25 to 34 year olds in B.C. is down $9000 from four decades ago. This can’t be possible. People in that age group probably only earned $9000 a year in 1980. Maybe it was the grammar? Still, looks tough in Vancouvr for millennials.”
A Clerk III for the BC government made around $17000 per annum in 1980. So figure about 150% more today would be close. So around $42000. A jr supvervisor around 22000 or 55,000 in todays dollars.
If Trump wins which is quite the possibility then we are all hooped people – but then again if Hitlery wins we are all hooped
RE : #7 TURNER NATION
Sure it is there townhouse. On this income MOM and DAD are funding everything. Sadly this is one of the key variables in the housing bubble – people who live a wonderful life of consumerism on someone else’s money.
Target has left a big empty whole in the strip mall north of the QEW on Appleby in Burlington which could have been the last straw for the big William’s Coffee Diner that went down next door. Now Burlington is upper middle class with lots of monied newcomers and families with kids so it leaves a big impression as it has been many months since Target and the diner have been vacant.
#3 Flopper…
WI – has John Menard of Eau Claire. Who started by buying box cars of lumber during his college days there.
Menard’s is a decent lumber home improvement products chain operating primarily in the mid west here. Similar to Home Depot, Lowes etc.
Add in Diane Hendricks, ABC Supply Co. (Beloit, WI) whose late husband Ken founded this business as a roofing shingle business in 1982, now serving contractor’s needs nationwide in the roofing & siding wholesale business. He was a great guy (met him a couple times), and died when he fell off a roof about 8 years ago.
The two above had invented better ‘mousetraps’ hardly original business ideas, but delivered fair prices, and worked to deliver outstanding service FOR their customers. (DUH huh)
Actually we have several others, most of them are the “trust fund baby” types, but that doesn’t make them bad people.
See, even hard working decent people can make a fortune in their lifetimes.
*****
Now back to RE.
Tonight’s buyer used only 20% of worth to buy a home.
Not sure given the ‘numbers’ it was the best use of his wealth, but hey, not my money…
I think this is akin to buying a car at low or zero percent financing. No one pays cash anymore at these rates. Keep his money and put it towards balanced investing to get a rate of return higher than your mortgage rate.
I am entertaining the idea of doing this with my paid for home, why not let the money work for me?
I live in Ottawa and the first rule of Barhaven is that you do not talk about Barhaven. Also, the things you own end up owning you.
Vancouver update. From the link, check out 3203 West 3rd. It’s been listed since April 4th. A year ago, a listing this old would have been impossible.
http://www.lisamacintosh.com/listings.htm
All I know is my co-worker just sold her house for a cool $200,000 more than she bought it for only 2 years ago (Squamish). She is now moving to Kelowna.
I’ve made 6% this year……….who da fool?
8 pathcontrolmonk on 05.25.16 at 6:32 pm
The bigger issue is why anyone would choose to live in Ottawa?
Oh, I don’t know…. my wife and I make 200K combined with defined benefit pensions and can live in a House that would cost $800,000 in Toronto for $350,000 or 1.3 million in Vancouver.
So yeah, who in their right mind would want to live in Ottawa?
#19 IKnow on 05.25.16 at 7:21 pm
#4
Foreign (specifically Chinese) money is a non-factor here in Vancouver? I beg to differ. Look what I found in the mail (note how many times the word “Chinese” comes up):
http://imgur.com/YIVMMQm
Am I a xenophobe or just realistic?
No. Only gullible. — Garth
—————-
Realtor spending her precious time to learn conversational Mandarin solely with an intent to fool fool fool?
Foreign chinese dude is an imaginary construct?
Chinese-linked real estate transactions only have a 5% effect?
Who is the naive one?
////////////////////////////////////
One thing about the five percent that should perhaps should be spelled out by someone smarter than me is that it is for the lower mainland and that is the average.
Some parts of this region I have no first hand knowledge of but in my mind it goes something like this rough outline of foreign investment.
West side of Vancouver 15/20%
East side of Vancouver 2/3%
North shore 10/15%
Burnaby 1/2 %
Surrey ,mainly because of Whiterock 1/2%
Chilliwack, Abbotsford ,Pitt Meadows,Coquitlam and such 0.00001%…
M41BC
this not a natural situation…i lean towards what you say but who ever heard of negative rates…may you live in interesting times
If you are completely new on investing, I tried to explain a Balanced Portfolio Here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8Asip9HZE8
Worst. Vid. Ever, dude. Six viewings – five more than it deserves. Stick with your day job. — Garth
Money is deferred consumption.
Price and media of exchange are subject to joint agreement by the participating parties, aka the market, not subject to ‘policies’ or ‘regulations’.
Money is not expiration coupons or somebody’s mandated ‘lawful’ abstract and centrally controlled measure of value. BOC’s role as intended when founded is not to determine the price of money for private lenders, it is to provide funding for public projects.
Poloz is incompetent puppet.
The price of money aka interest rates is determined by open markets.
So what you see billed/advertised as money today is not money. It is controlled credit notes that generally have no labour associated with it and have no value except the one mandated by governments for tax collection purposes. Currently the ‘value’ of a note is 1/40 of a brick of a crack shack in To/Van.
Have you tried fishing? We are in the free byte ‘free cheese’ phase.
The redemption would be coming in one form or another. Hedge accordingly.
The logical steps with a control puppet government is to increase deficits, encourage further mindless borrowing trough running huge deficits and ‘insuring’/taking the risk out of the lenders, leaving them with the profits and no risk.
Sounds familiar?
It is MAXIMUM EXTRACTION game where players that contribute no value to productivity extract maximum value for their ‘risk free effort’.
We all know how it will end.
anyone see Maclean’s cover story?
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/chinese-real-estate-investors-are-reshaping-the-market/
And of course all the ‘virtual money’ extracted from the system through interest payments goes to buy real or productive assets.
There will be no asset deflation for real assets.
Real estate though is not real asset as it is credit driven.
Any sane person should ask government to institute windfall tax on housing before increasing any real taxation or introducing NIRP.
Taxation is a form of negotiation. Have you tried sending to the tax authorities a proposal to deduct from your taxes let’s say the losses resulting in smaller interest payments (or potentially penalties) on your deposits due to idiotic BOC monetary policies?
It is perfectly legal, not tax evasion, or avoidance, to propose such settlement. If they agree you you pay less, if they don’t agree, you pay your taxes. But watch out if everyone does it.
Derek forgot the rent on his borrowed money. Take a 5-year mortgage rate of 3% on the full $475k as the minimum opportunity cost on the money. That wipes out the so-called yield on the house. Leaving you with all the risk.
@ #29 TS on 05.25.16 at 7:53 pm
You still didn’t answer the question bud.
It is perfectly legal, not tax evasion, or avoidance, to propose such settlement. If they agree you you pay less, if they don’t agree, you pay your taxes. But watch out if everyone does it.
——————————-
Sorry, I meant it should be perfectly legal, not that it is.
!0 year visitor visas are all the rage now. Who needs immigration?? Get one and your set.
Vancouver and Toronto prices going to the moon. Thats where the new ‘immigrants’ want to be! This is why prices are going up.
Only a fool would be blind to this.
10 year visitor visas…we just invited the whole world to YVR. Prices still going up by well over $1500/day.
Historical Negative Interest Rates
Well anyone against the way banks loan out deposits which necessarily causes fractional reserve banking (100% reserve as opposed to some fraction of 100% would mean keep all the deposits in the vault) must be in favor of negative rates.
If a bank can’t lend out your deposit then they are going to charge you for storing your money.
Did any of the first gold smiths charge for storing gold?
What are high monthly bank account fees, if not negative interest? (Actually they might just be to cover the costs and profit of monthly activity, but beyond that they might seem to be negative interest rates.)
Payday loan companies are accused of charging usurious rates. In part this because when they called some of the charges a fee to cover costs (costs other than interest) the judges said, no it’s all interest.
Can you imagine the cost of chasing down pay down loan borrowers? Most of the costs in that business would not be the outfits cost of obtaining money to lend out.
By the way only banks and governments and hugest and safest corporations ever get to borrow at a negative rate. Regular people never will except by accident like an old prime minus 2% loan that goes negative which was never contemplated.
It seems the request to delete my posts wast lost…
You could just stop. — Garth
CBC radio – Anna Maria Tremonti – Canadian Seniors Still Working To Make Ends Meet
On right now (May 25 @8:45pm Eastern) Ouch …scary.
Have a listen. …and weep?
How many years does it take to save up for a home in Van city, TO? Read this: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/gensqueeze/pages/107/attachments/original/1464150906/Code_Red_Rethinking_Canadian_Housing_Policy_Final_2016-05-24.pdf?1464150906
My buddy in Calgary tells me his rent just went down over 200 buck on the edge of downtown. He also says that office tower occupancy is now down around 20%. Walking through the Plus 15 must be like a quiet walk in the park.
“…if he’d invested $475,000 and received a modest 6% return the cash flow would be…”
Investment advisors toss around that “6% return” like it’s compound interest from savings bonds. Without that 6% return, the argument for renting falls apart. First, that 6% return is a long-term average, i.e. money that’s been invested for many years. You may have a lot of new money invested, but it may not be returning 6%. Second, even old money doesn’t hit that 6%-return mark all the time, maybe only 10% of the time. Third, you have to invest all your capital. If you’re risk averse and you invest only half, your return is also halved, i.e. 3% return on your total capital even if the invested half returns 6%. Fourth, it’s hard to think long-term if the last two years of investing has been frustrating. Investment advisors like to gloss over that 6% return like it’s a done deal. They don’t want you to know you will spend far more time asking “Where’s my 6% return?” than enjoying a 6% return. A diversified portfolio will give you a test of patience more often than a 6% return.
But homeownership goes beyond money. Renters can’t do home improvements. If you want improvements in the way of faucets, lighting, ceiling fans, ductless air conditioning, appliances, window coverings, wall coverings, flooring, new paint, cabinets, or any fixture, you have to be a homeowner. If you’re poor, you may not covet those things. But if you’re flushed with cash, you will eventually have a fixation on fixtures, especially if you’re a woman, because fixtures make living better. That is why Garth tells people not to have a fixation on fixtures, for that is the path of temptation, which leads to ruin, i.e. homeownership. Garth says if you have to be fixated on something, be fixated on fine cars, or things that you take with you if you move. Let’s see how long you can deny your fixation on fixtures.
That was convincing. Get a china bidet and shut up. — Garth
Just a note that disallowing revocation of comments or correction of comments in order to correct/clarify intend or provide disclaimer is not really legal and contradicts the terms and conditions of this blog.
We have terms & conditions? — Garth
Money Confusion
#33 Sheane Wallace on 05.25.16 at 8:12 pm said:
“Money is deferred consumption.”
Correct, money is a claim check on goods and services. It’s like an IOU from the economy to you.
“Price and media of exchange are subject to joint agreement by the participating parties, aka the market, not subject to ‘policies’ or ‘regulations’.”
Correct the value of most things in dollars is set in the market.
“Money is not expiration coupons or somebody’s mandated ‘lawful’ abstract and centrally controlled measure of value. BOC’s role as intended when founded is not to determine the price of money for private lenders, it is to provide funding for public projects.”
Bank of Canada’s main role these days is to control inflation in order to keep the value of a Canadian dollar reasonably constant in purchasing power although slowly depreciation with about 2% inflation. Not sure it’s original role is relevant. Things change.
“Poloz is incompetent puppet.”
Rude, and not correct.
“The price of money aka interest rates is determined by open markets.”
To a great extent certainly. Interest rates are low today because Boomers have much “money” on deposit at banks.
“So what you see billed/advertised as money today is not money. It is controlled credit notes that generally have no labour associated with it and have no value except the one mandated by governments for tax collection purposes. ”
All money is credit as it represents an IOU from the economy to the holder of the money. Though the precise value of the goods and services represented by a dollar changes over time. Money as in a bank deposit has value because it can be exchanged for goods and services as well as pay taxes.
The ability to pay taxes with money may be a necessary feature when a new type of currency is introduced. That is needed to sort of prime the engine. But once a currency is in circulation it has value because we all trust it has value. And it does.
Sheane, did you read too many doomer books and change your money to Gold and fail to invest and now regret it?
Have you tried fishing? We are in the free byte ‘free cheese’ phase.
The redemption would be coming in one form or another. Hedge accordingly.
Making Ends Meet
#44 Mic on 05.25.16 at 8:51 pm said
CBC radio – Anna Maria Tremonti – Canadian Seniors Still Working To Make Ends Meet
*********************************
Should the ends meet by themselves? No pension or large wealth in retirement means keep working or live a very humble life. What of it? Work is healthy.
@#13 Lee
A report in the Post today about Vancouver says yearly earnings for 25 to 34 year olds in B.C. is down $9000 from four decades ago. This can’t be possible. People in that age group probably only earned $9000 a year in 1980.
***************************
The report was all in modern dollars (2011? can’t remember) which means they took the average salaries, adjusted for inflation, then compared them.
Price-to-rent in my Vancouver SFH is 75. I still get the pitying looks.
Check out @ReformedBroker’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/ReformedBroker/status/735606829858820096?s=09
Boomers are helping their kids more than they received. It’s a money circus.
@Shawn #42
“Can you imagine the cost of chasing down pay down loan borrowers? Most of the costs in that business would not be the outfits cost of obtaining money to lend out.”
I had a part-time job collecting for a payday loan company. The owner was desperate as he was losing thousands monthly in bad loans.
Most of the time they just ignored the calls. I finally convinced my boss that we should take a few to court and that got a lot of compliance. Quite a few of them had a pathological fear of courtrooms. I have no doubt why.
When people speak of the high interest rates being usurious in the payday loan industry they have no idea what they are talking about. Any normal interest rate would result in bankruptcy by the lender as the rate of repayment in my experience was not very good.
#8 pathcontrolmonk,
two years ago I told my Ottawa doctor that we were moving to Toronto for family reasons. She looked at me and asked “Why? Ottawa is human scale, Toronto is not.”
Within six months I realized that she was right, and we moved back to Ottawa as soon as we found a suitable house there. Toronto is a place to make your fame and fortune if necessary, but Ottawa is a place to live.
#26 conan,
is Borehaven in Ottawa?
@Chaddywack, post #28:
Good point you make but consider, will the new owner of this house make a 200 grand capital gain in 2 years from now? Possibly, but I wouldn’t take that gamble.
No comment on Mcleans cover?
Another conspiratorial fabricated theory I suspect.
Why would anyone comment on a magazine that isn’t a mag anymore, than nobody reads? — Garth
#15 ww1,
saw FIRECracker’s Part 1 yesterday, and failed to be impressed.
I’m a DOS dinosaur, not an engineer or techie, but I could answer the question of my annual returns within two minutes by calling up a spreadsheet.
Mali soit qui mal y pense.
Garth.
Really?
Garth, could we press you for some tips on navigating the second half of 2016 in terms of investments?
It seems equities in the US will take a tumble with the uncertainty from the election, but so will treasuries with the rate hikes.
A few of the billionaires are already buying gold ETFs.
#59 Herb
saw FIRECracker’s Part 1 yesterday, and failed to be impressed.
I’m a DOS dinosaur, not an engineer or techie, but I could answer the question of my annual returns within two minutes by calling up a spreadsheet.
=================================
Wow. There were many requests that FIRECracker post the financial details of how they were able to retire in their 30’s. And she did so.
Your only comment is that you keep deeply anal records of your financial history and can access them quickly?
So tell us – did your DOS dinosaur skills let you retire in your early 30’s?
#60 Joe2.0 on 05.25.16 at 9:44 pm
Garth.
Really?
…..
I’ll take that one. All msm is full of shit. No such thing as a journalist in print media anymore.
Sanctioned, washed, bull shit. If you invest by using msm as your guide you will die a slow death.
And now let me introduce you to modern education. This is a typical university proff these days.
What a complete waste of money higher education is.
http://www.breitbart.com/milo/2016/05/25/meet-radical-professor-indoctrinating-depauls-black-students/
To be fair Garth, your $1600 rental is only 3 bed, single strip of asphalt, and located in Farrhaven. Derek’s mcmansion may be in a closer burb, nicer neighbourhood, 4 beds, double driveway. His $2200/mo quote is reasonable.
I would classify the Ottawa market as semi-unaffordable. Ottawa proper is unaffordable. The ‘burbs are reasonable.
Smoking Man.
Im not using MSM as my barometer re Chinese influence.
It’s just another confirmation.
I am speaking to bankers, top selling RE agents, and large developers I know that are selling product never advertised in Canada in China.
I am seeing my neighbourhood in North Van filling up with Chinese straight off the plane.
Many dressed in traditional clothing and not a word of English.
To deny the impact of foreign investment indicates some sort of agenda or denial?
I’m not sure which it is.
I have warned you before. No more. — Garth
A 3.5 cash return is not realistic on a balanced portfolio if you have a reasonable U.S. And Global component? The American and Global stuff yield too little and so does small cap and sectors. I think 3.0 is more realistic especially if you really want to diversify. Or you can put it all in Nike, Microsoft, our banks, CNR and Engridge. The portfolio does 10 percent a year but you can’t sleep at night.
Hey WULLY,Good to see the big man that gave Ottawa such good service, was dependable and was a magnificent leader retire today with his head held high.
I’m talking about Ottawa defenseman Chris Phillips not Harper the Hun…
M41BC
#28 Chaddywack on 05.25.16 at 7:53 pm
BULLCRAP
. . . . . nothing else to do, but smile, smile, smile
Not sure if others have touched on this, but Derek, for a BSD, you kinda left your fly open when you decided to scratch your real estate itch. Why pay $475k when you could have effectively ‘paid’ $167k.
Even though our host has highlighted this many times, I’ll pass along a quick tip:
Go to your broker or [email protected] and request for an equity take out of 65-ltv. You can easily haggle for them to give it to you at prime. And just like that, with the power of banking, you’ve quickly turned a $475k purchase into $167k.
Now here’s some quick back of the envelope calculation to make the neighbours more envious of you. Take the $300k the bank’s given you and dump it into Garth’s 60/40 portfolio in a non-registered account and enjoy the 6% returns. If you really want to flex your muscle, I heard one of our blue bank’s feeling a little ‘blue’ lately. Why not lend them a hand with your $300k and they’ll pay you a 4% yield.
Sure you have a ‘mortgage’, but with interest only payment of about $5k/yr while the portfolio is shelling out $12k, you’ll be about to afford new trousers for the extra girth.
I’m pretty sure I forgot something, but oh well. I’m just a jealous renter.
#13 Lee on 05.25.16 at 6:47 pm
A report in the Post today about Vancouver says yearly earnings for 25 to 34 year olds in B.C. is down $9000 from four decades ago.
=======================
NOTE -The comparison is in 2011 dollars
Avg Metro Vancouver home
Now………$812,653
1976-80…$212,326
Avg Metro Van mortgage payment
Now………$3,555
1976-80…$1,583
Med. full-time earnings BC cohort aged 25-34
Now………$47,178
1976-80…$55,260
So yes, according to this, 25-34 age group earns about $9,000 less in constant dollars today than in 1980.
http://www.theprovince.com/business/takes+years+save+down+payment+Metro+Vancouver+Report/11940530/story.html
“62 ww1,
c’mon, don’t be a jackass! Where did she post how they were able to retire at 30? Not in the generalities of her Part 1!
Your “anal” shit is uncalled for. Like every investor or financial literate, I keep a spreadsheet that’s up to date and available with three mouse-clicks.
I had a career I enjoyed and saw no reason to retire at 30, even if I could have, but I did retire 25 years ago and am still liquid.
Grow up!
#9 pathcontrolmonk
“The bigger issue is why anyone would choose to live in Ottawa?”
Yeah, exactly. Why would ANYONE want to live in stuffy old Ottawa? Please everyone, don’t even consider moving here. Yawn. So. boring. Nothing to see here.
Move along, please.
(Wink, wink. I think we got ’em fooled.)
Can’t buy this BS market in Calgary. Going to keep renting until this winter at minimum. Who are these buyers who can’t wait for prices to soften? What is the firkin rush?
Sales YOY -11%
New Listings +10%
Inventory YOY +15%
Average price +4%
Sales down, Inventory up, Prices UP … of course!
#66 Joe2.0 on 05.25.16 at 10:07 pm
Smoking Man.
Im not using MSM as my barometer re Chinese influence.
It’s just another confirmation.
I am speaking to bankers, top selling RE agents, and large developers I know that are selling product never advertised in Canada in China.
I am seeing my neighbourhood in North Van filling up with Chinese straight off the plane.
Many dressed in traditional clothing and not a word of English.
To deny the impact of foreign investment indicates some sort of agenda or denial?
I’m not sure which it is.
I have warned you before. No more. — Garth
………
Joe. I don’t buy it.
Bottom line is supply and demand. And the demand starts at the entry level market. The luxury market where the chinees roam is feed from downstream entry level properties.
Blame them all you want. Don’t change how the market works.
You talk to bankers. Agents, developers.
What do you sell to have access to those types.
See I caught you in a fib.
I should know. I’m the biggest fiber there is.
#21 Doug t on 05.25.16 at 7:27 pm
If Trump wins which is quite the possibility then we are all hooped people – but then again if Hitlery wins we are all hooped
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
You keep hearing statements like this…..everywhere in the world when it comes to Govt. It proves beyond a doubt we have reached “peak” govt. The next 10 years are going to be very very interesting indeed. I don’t think the plebs are going to keep “laying down” for much longer.
There are no bad dogs.
Only bad owners.
Joe2.0: No comment on Macleans cover?
Another conspiratorial fabricated theory I suspect.
Why would anyone comment on a magazine that isn’t a mag anymore, than nobody reads? — Garth
here’s an article in Macleans:
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-anatomy-of-a-housing-bubble/
from the article: talking about the housing bubble: Politicians are generally oblivious to the bubble as it is happening, or at least do very little to get in the way of it. After the fact, however, when the catastrophic collapse happens, another necessary component is the blame game.
Bob Thompson is right: politicians have done very little about the housing bubble. Question is who are they going to blame? I don’t see a very good answer.
#73 Herb on 05.25.16 at 10:28 pm
“62 ww1,
c’mon, don’t be a jackass! Where did she post how they were able to retire at 30? Not in the generalities of her Part 1!
Your “anal” shit is uncalled for. Like every investor or financial literate, I keep a spreadsheet that’s up to date and available with three mouse-clicks.
I had a career I enjoyed and saw no reason to retire at 30, even if I could have, but I did retire 25 years ago and am still liquid.
Grow up!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Cashing those awesome public sector benefit cheques for 25 years huh Herb? Speaking of spreadsheets….you have to be an “anal idiot” not to see why Canada and overtaxed private sector workers are broke…..Yup…..the next 10 years will be really really REALLY interesting.
#73 Herb
c’mon, don’t be a jackass! Where did she post how they were able to retire at 30? Not in the generalities of her Part 1!
Your “anal” shit is uncalled for. Like every investor or financial literate, I keep a spreadsheet that’s up to date and available with three mouse-clicks.
I had a career I enjoyed and saw no reason to retire at 30, even if I could have, but I did retire 25 years ago and am still liquid.
=============================
Sigh.
So your complaint is that she does not have your ninja-spreadsheet-fu to find every quarter she has spent in her life?
Even though, as she promised, she has begun to lay out their finances. Good on her – it’s really none of our business after all. I can only guess that you are impatient that you did not get it all in one day despite her promises to complete things over several days? Or are you also going to ask for a daily reconciliation of every dollar they spent over the last 15 years?
And what part about them being retired in their mid-30’s did you miss in their posts? She laid out the first couple of years that got them the nest egg they brought to Garth. I can see where she is going with this – it’s a great story. Sorry if you can’t be patient and have to slag her spreadsheet / record keeping skills instead.
But, seperate topic, please accept my congratulations on being liquid and managing your retirement. Seriously.
#63 Smoking Man on 05.25.16 at 9:56 pm
#60 Joe2.0 on 05.25.16 at 9:44 pm
Garth.
Really?
…..
I’ll take that one. All msm is full of shit. No such thing as a journalist in print media anymore.
Sanctioned, washed, bull shit. If you invest by using msm as your guide you will die a slow death.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It’s actually worse than that…..even Facebook – which everyone is FORCED to link to somehow “scrubs” its news and “trending now” sections to conform to “what they are told to do” by Marks “handlers”. I will let the audience figure out whom Mr Zuckerbergs handlers are…..
It’s so typical human nature to find people to blame when things don’t work out for you.
Hell they teach it in university now. You will never make it to the 1% if you play victim. Number 1 no one will like you. 2 your mind sends out low frequency waves. They travel around the universe broadcasting your a loser .
Now high frequency waves. Just one line on 649 and you will win the big one.
It’s how birds grew wings, and sharks big teeth.
It’s how the universe works.
Dr Smoking Man
Sr. Sky Pilot
99 galaxyway
Nictonite. 89765
Constilation Burbin
About 150 Million USD.
That the amount of money invested in The DAO.
The decentralized autonomous organization I mentioned a a couple of weeks earlier.
It has no governance and not governance. All decisions are left to a voting systems.
Things are going to get interesting soon.
In my previous message:
Instead of “It has no governance and not governance”
read It has no governance and no legal existence”
I like the days balanced portfolios were making 7% a year.
None of this 6% biznis
Trump rooted for the housing crash, while average joe looses everything:
http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/25/investing/trump-rooting-for-housing-crash/index.html
#82 Brazil ex-pat on 05.25.16 at 10:58 pm
#63 Smoking Man on 05.25.16 at 9:56 pm
#60 Joe2.0 on 05.25.16 at 9:44 pm
Garth.
Really?
…..
I’ll take that one. All msm is full of shit. No such thing as a journalist in print media anymore.
Sanctioned, washed, bull shit. If you invest by using msm as your guide you will die a slow death.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It’s actually worse than that…..even Facebook – which everyone is FORCED to link to somehow “scrubs” its news and “trending now” sections to conform to “what they are told to do” by Marks “handlers”. I will let the audience figure out whom Mr Zuckerbergs handlers are…..
…..
If I had a bet on this I would say your reference is to Jews.
I disagree if that was your conclusion.
I’ll go with Liberal SJW freshly mind fkd at university who dispise conservative voices.
Now the trick is to find out who owns the University.
#88 Smoking Man on 05.25.16 at 11:12 pm
#82 Brazil ex-pat on 05.25.16 at 10:58 pm
#63 Smoking Man on 05.25.16 at 9:56 pm
#60 Joe2.0 on 05.25.16 at 9:44 pm
Garth.
Really?
…..
I’ll take that one. All msm is full of shit. No such thing as a journalist in print media anymore.
Sanctioned, washed, bull shit. If you invest by using msm as your guide you will die a slow death.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It’s actually worse than that…..even Facebook – which everyone is FORCED to link to somehow “scrubs” its news and “trending now” sections to conform to “what they are told to do” by Marks “handlers”. I will let the audience figure out whom Mr Zuckerbergs handlers are…..
…..
If I had a bet on this I would say your reference is to Jews.
I disagree if that was your conclusion.
I’ll go with Liberal SJW freshly mind fkd at university who dispise conservative voices.
Now the trick is to find out who owns the University.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I truly have no idea……I”m certainly not going to blame a religion on whom “Marks handlers” might be. I have no problem saying they might be the CIA as its pretty widely known that “The Company” has worked with Google since day one….but who knows.
Good night. Off to club 420.
My back hurts.
Been walking 6km a day for the last week. Joggers run past me all the time.
Losers.
You burn the same carbs if you do the same distance. When you walk you take in the sceenary. Love it when fit females joggers oblivious to my shades jog by.
#89 Brazil ex-pat on 05.25.16 at 11:25 pm
#88 Smoking Man on 05.25.16 at 11:12 pm
#82 Brazil ex-pat on 05.25.16 at 10:58 pm
#63 Smoking Man on 05.25.16 at 9:56 pm
#60 Joe2.0 on 05.25.16 at 9:44 pm
Garth.
Really?
…..
I’ll take that one. All msm is full of shit. No such thing as a journalist in print media anymore.
Sanctioned, washed, bull shit. If you invest by using msm as your guide you will die a slow death.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It’s actually worse than that…..even Facebook – which everyone is FORCED to link to somehow “scrubs” its news and “trending now” sections to conform to “what they are told to do” by Marks “handlers”. I will let the audience figure out whom Mr Zuckerbergs handlers are…..
…..
If I had a bet on this I would say your reference is to Jews.
I disagree if that was your conclusion.
I’ll go with Liberal SJW freshly mind fkd at university who dispise conservative voices.
Now the trick is to find out who owns the University.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I truly have no idea……I”m certainly not going to blame a religion on whom “Marks handlers” might be. I have no problem saying they might be the CIA as its pretty widely known that “The Company” has worked with Google since day one….but who knows…..
….
Damn it. I would have lost that bet… CIA. probably forgot about them. Wasnt trying to brand you. I just say what I think in the moment.
Still going with the young SJW staff though.
But then again that’s probably what the CIA wants me to think.
This shit is complicated.
#90 Smoking Man on 05.25.16 at 11:36 pm
Good night. Off to club 420.
My back hurts.
Been walking 6km a day for the last week. Joggers run past me all the time.
Losers.
You burn the same carbs if you do the same distance. When you walk you take in the sceenary. Love it when fit females joggers oblivious to my shades jog by.
—
Dr. Stoner man!
#88 Smoking Man
‘I’ll go with Liberal SJW freshly mind fkd at university who dispise conservative voices.’
…..just for you SM….photo of the current editorial board at the Huff Post…..
https://goo.gl/FOvVwp/
https://www.techinasia.com/foxconn-robots-china-job-losses
http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2016/05/24/fmr-mcdonalds-usa-ceo-35k-robots-cheaper-than-hiring-at-15-per-hour.html
#78 cramar on 05.25.16 at 10:51 pm
There are no bad dogs.
Only bad owners.
…
There are some dumbass dogs, however.
#33 Sheane Wallace on 05.25.16 at 8:12 pm
Money is deferred consumption…
…
Interesting commentary. I see money as replacement for production. When we aren’t producing, things cost more. If Buddy and friends can clear a patch and build a bung, they don’t need money. But they can’t, so they pay in said terms.
Host Topic, “… there seems to be no financial argument for tying up even a modest half-million bucks on a pile of bricks (actually for that you get metal siding and fake stucco). ”
…
I saw a photo of these new builds where neighbours can share toilet paper and the words echoed. Nice crates.
http://www.vancouversun.com/homes+prices+toronto+continue+push+past+million+city+runs+houses/11938905/story.html
Activity Calories Burned Fat Percentage Calories from Fat
Watching TV for 20 minutes 40 calories 60 percent 24 calories
Walking for 20 minutes 100 calories 65 percent 65 calories
Jogging & sprinting for 20 minutes 250 calories 40 percent 100 calories
So it’s realistic to expect a reliable 6% dividend return from the beginning?
I wish it were that simple.
“A typical 60/40 has a 3.5% cash yield, the rest being cap gains and distributions. But you know that. — Garth”
Cap gains?
So you have sell off some of your income producing shares?
Unbelievable. — Garth
http://www.vice.com/en_ca/video/surreal-estate-part-one?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral
When is peak anything? Looking at a chart, for example, US Civilian Unemployment rate be the one I watch, besides cad/us. The jobless rate never spends much time at any happy medium. It changes abruptly and dramatically. So given the consistent undulations each election cycle, I wonder what’ll happen next?
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?width=880&height=440&id=UNRATE
Gregor Robertson is such a hypocrite. He sells out the city to developers and then in part two of vice mini documentary to come says it’s a citizens’s right?!
Here’s the latest good one from west side Van. Start with an old beater apartment bldg. & do a quick & dirty 1/2 million reno. Jack the rents to 1600/month for one bedroom & 2300/month for a two. Put up for sale & watch a bidding war take it to a selling price at 1% cap rate (yes.at the new rents). Any “regulars” are on the sidelines now. Next stop the showers. Can’t play in this league unless of course you already own an oldy.
Seems like fireworks are on!
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/05/16/toronto-vancouver-housing-topped-out-crea_n_9994224.html
The wild ride in the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets may be over. Either that, or it’s taking a breather right in the middle of the hot spring home-buying season.
After several years of rapid growth, home sales in both cities have flatlined and even shrunk mildly over the past two months.
“Activity in Greater Vancouver and the GTA appears to have topped out,” said Cliff Iverson, president of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
Home sales saw no growth in April in Toronto, after falling 1.8 per cent the month before. Sales were down 1 per cent in Vancouver, after falling 0.3 per cent the month before.
90, smoking man,
Yeah, but it takes too long to walk five miles.
Interesting that in the rest of the world China seems to be making a real contribution to foreign owned property….
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/05/londons-mayor-says-what-melbounes-wont/
Did I miss something? What a non-issue.
If you have a net worth of 2.2 Million (which is what his numbers suggest), then of course buying a place at that price for cash is reasonable. It may not be the best use of his money in terms of ‘investing’, but I hardly think this is the demographic GreaterFool is trying to get across to.
Does he read this blog?
Serious question here: Why is the Bank of Mom and Dad (Dad and Dad, Mom and Mom) a bad thing? If the inhertitance taxes are crazy and the parents are planning to give their money to their children when they die anyway, why would you want to see your children struggle over some antiquiated “Work hard, struggle is good” philosophy?
Personally, I think the majority, and I mean 98% of people, are stupid. I’m stupid too but I’m smarter than most people give me credit for.
Garth, Poloz has already said he will talk the dollar down and leave interest rates untouched for years. The BOC can keep this charade up for years, the Trudeau Liberals are intent on printing bonds to lend to themselves and pay zero interest on. There will be no rate change in Canada until Canadians get smart and demand our politicians stop wasting our money, like on wifey holidays to Japan.
Smoking Man on 05.25.16 at 11:36 pm
Good night. Off to club 420.
My back hurts.
Been walking 6km a day for the last week. Joggers run past me all the time.
Losers.
You burn the same carbs if you do the same distance. When you walk you take in the sceenary. Love it when fit females joggers oblivious to my shades jog by.
===================================
No.
Another myth. I know why you say this: working at a lower intensity requires less quick energy and a higher percentage of fat is burned. But you’ll also burn fewer calories than you would if, for the same amount of time, you work out at a harder intensity (running versus walking).
Hence, walking for 5km will not burn the same calories as running for 5km. Sorry. It’s just science.
Although I do agree with the comments about sunglasses and fit female joggers!
God bless Lululemon…
“That means (a) his portfolio pays the rent, (b) he keeps his $475,000 liquid and (c) lives in the same house.”
Plus, the residual alone nearly covers the annual TFSA contribution for two.
Without a doubt the Bank of Canada will resist the upward rate pressure coming from the US for as long as possible, but at the risk of trashing the dollar and goosing inflation. Inevitably, it will move.
No way this bubble is going to burst because of some action by the government(s) or the BoC. To the contrary they will continue doing everything that they can to sustain it. Trudeau will borrow and spend as much as the markets allows him, he will even use «partnerships» with pension funds to finance large infrastructure projects (Quebec is already going down that route with its Caisse de Dépot). Politicians will continue kicking the can down the road, that is what they do.
Make no mistake about it, the bubble is going to burst. But remember that it is largely a product of government policies, in this business the state may claim to be the firefighter but in fact he is the pyromaniac!
Markets will settle this, they always do, just don’t try to guess when and how! Just know that it will happen and plan accordingly.
Why is the Bank of Mom and Dad (Dad and Dad, Mom and Mom) a bad thing?. #108 Buy? Curious?
Because its allows the kids taking a financial step that may ruin them in the long run.
#94 jay on 05.25.16 at 11:57 pm
—————————
Unfortunately, a robotic arm that bags french fries can’t sweep the floor, take the garbage out or work the till. And have you seen those new self-serve ordering screens…I’d still rather interact with a human that can answer questions. Not holding my breath for large scale robotic arm uptake by mcdonalds…
@ww1-
Wanderer is that you? Did ya finally get your ballz out of FIREcracker’s purse?
#108……the correct spelling is “inheritance” tax, and we don’t have one smarty pants.
middleman pipeline seems to be crumbling in wyoming/nevada-for failing to maintain records
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article79723702.html
Garth –
No one believes rates will decline in North America going forward, so that’s a red herring. Europe probably, they’re a mess. Really, the issue is whether – and when – rates will rise. You place enormous faith in Yellin’ Janet pulling the pin sooner rather than later, and not just once, either. June is a possibility, I’ll grant that, but during the federal election campaign, getting underway in earnest in July? Not a chance. The Fed is rather averse to injecting itself into these things, especially this year with the bumptious Mr. Trump and the desperate Hillary Clinton running for office. It’ll be June or not at all. My money is on not at all.
Then prepare to lose. — Garth
“I’m working on a research paper on the Chinese inflow of capital in Canadian real estate and whether it is sustainable. And the bottom line is yes, it is sustainable, unless barring some sort of cataclysm,” she said. “None of us know what the net inflow is in Canadian real estate markets, either Vancouver or Toronto, but everyone is clear that it’s meaningful.
“In Vancouver, especially, it’s visible. You can’t walk through the Vancouver airport without seeing Chinese signs everywhere.”
http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/broker-economist-on-central-bank-housing-concerns-207912.aspx
In Ottawa proper the comparable rent to owning for places I’d consider is about $2000/mo to $2400/mo to $600,000. That’s in a range of 20.8 to 25. So, pretty unaffordable. Frankly though, these areas will never be affordable.
The one downside of renting is being forced to move because your landlord is re-occupying the residence. Annoying.
#114 Bottoms_Up on 05.26.16 at 7:56 am
#94 jay on 05.25.16 at 11:57 pm
—————————
Unfortunately, a robotic arm that bags french fries can’t sweep the floor, take the garbage out or work the till. And have you seen those new self-serve ordering screens…I’d still rather interact with a human that can answer questions. Not holding my breath for large scale robotic arm uptake by mcdonalds…
….
Lets just hope they use the right colour steel when they make the arm.
Heaven help us all if its white steel, and it’s masculine.
#121 Smoking Man on 05.26.16 at 9:59 am
#114 Bottoms_Up on 05.26.16 at 7:56 am
#94 jay on 05.25.16 at 11:57 pm
—————————
Unfortunately, a robotic arm that bags french fries can’t sweep the floor, take the garbage out or work the till. And have you seen those new self-serve ordering screens…I’d still rather interact with a human that can answer questions. Not holding my breath for large scale robotic arm uptake by mcdonalds…
….
Lets just hope they use the right colour steel when they make the arm.
Heaven help us all if its white steel, and it’s masculine.
=======================================
T2 will need to add another gender for anyone that identifies as a robot.
#121 Smoking Man on 05.26.16 at 9:59 am
#114 Bottoms_Up on 05.26.16 at 7:56 am
#94 jay on 05.25.16 at 11:57 pm
—————————
Unfortunately, a robotic arm that bags french fries can’t sweep the floor, take the garbage out or work the till. And have you seen those new self-serve ordering screens…I’d still rather interact with a human that can answer questions. Not holding my breath for large scale robotic arm uptake by mcdonalds…
….
Lets just hope they use the right colour steel when they make the arm.
Heaven help us all if its white steel, and it’s masculine.
—
It’ll be a transgender robot but they won’t have to have a separate bathroom. So bonus.
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/business-news/rbc-boosts-qprofit-to-2-57-billion-sets-aside-more-money-for-bad-loans/
When they boost money set aside for bad loans — are they talking mortgages or business loans?
the odds of a US rate hike will always be 60-80% off in the future. Was, is, and is to come. but oddly they never seem to transpire. anyone else see a pattern?
Fool you once shame on them, fool you twice we offer an exemption but duped for years on end? I beg to eat crow but with melancholy will dine on low rates for years to come. everything is being turned back asswards in society. its a mad mad world
Top Headline of BBC News today
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36369108
#163 Metaxa on 05.25.16 at 5:27 pm
Thanks Metaxa. Yes, I did mean RESP. The kids would get help for school from us regardless of investment vehicle, if they needed it, so we’re leaning RESP due to the instant 20% ROI from the gov’t. And if they don’t need the money, they will give it back to their parents.
RESP withdrawals are taxed on the grants and earnings made. Are the earnings treated as income, as with an RRSP, or broken down into dividends, capital gains, etc.?
After 18 years of contributing $2500 to the RESP, vs. same amount to TFSA, which one comes out ahead? Quick search found this link regarding comparative growth, but doesn’t address the taxation:
http://www.investorsgroup.com/en/media-room/articles/education-resp/save-for-post-secondary-school-with-a-tfsa-or-resp
#119 Sherry Cooper “you know U.S. hedge funds and hedge funds around the world have been shorting Canadian bank stocks thinking this was a bubble that’s going to burst and it’s a big negative for the Canadian banks … [but] I don’t believe that’s the case,” Cooper said. “They are misinformed about how different the housing structure is in Canada, how different the banking regulations are in Canada.” ”
Riiiight, People who manage hundreds of millions of dollars aren’t doing their due diligence. She on the other hand (is the employed mouthpiece for said banks) No conflict there.
George Carlin — ‘Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.’
#96 family beagle on 05.26.16 at 12:09 am
#78 cramar on 05.25.16 at 10:51 pm
There are no bad dogs.
Only bad owners.
…
There are some dumbass dogs, however.
================
LOL! My laugh for the day.
Yes, certainly true. I’ve known a few.
But it begs the question: are dumbass dogs smarter than dumbass people?
Sad Sack Trudeau follows the pack of real leaders like a lost pup.
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/5/26/Trudeau-tells-G7-peers-its-not-about-whether-to-invest-but-what-to-invest-in.aspx
What an embarrassment for Canada.
#92 Wild Albertan Gonads on 05.25.16 at 11:54 pm
#90 Smoking Man on 05.25.16 at 11:36 pm
Good night. Off to club 420.
My back hurts.
Been walking 6km a day for the last week. Joggers run past me all the time.
Losers.
You burn the same carbs if you do the same distance. When you walk you take in the sceenary. Love it when fit females joggers oblivious to my shades jog by.
—
Dr. Stoner man!
……………………………………………………………………
Club 420, wow now your into yachting? I would never take you for the boating type, more like a drinking at the pier type.
http://www.club420.org
We’re just moving into our new rental house in the lower mainland.
A 6 bedroom 3500sq foot detached house on 1 acre with mature fruit trees, a lush green lawn and plenty of sun.
Apples, cherries, blueberries, plums and more. It’s an older house but has lots of character.
Speaking of Price-to-rent ratio this place is off the charts.
BC Assessment value of the house is $1,700,000
Annual rent: $2500 x 12 = $30,000
Price-to-rent ratio = 56
If a Price-to-rent ratio above means the landlord is a benevolent deity. Or an idiot. Or a realtor with an A7…
What does it mean when the price-to-rent ratio 56?
Canada’s economy has been crashing for 15 years. At least the cheap money has created a stock market bubble and a housing bubble so it all looks pretty. How many of your grown-up kids are living in the basement now ?
Moved to Ottawa in the fall from Toronto. Your $1600 rental house would be about 365k, so a 19, not a 25.
The 430k 4/4 backing onto the greenspace we traded our 2bed condo for would be 2000+ to rent, giving around 18. There is a 3/2 side split (no green space, corner lot) for rent at $1700 4 doors down.
Tired of renting, tired of traffic, tired of limited social/rec options. Well worth it. But no one else move here, please. It’s full. Stay away.
You burn the same carbs if you do the same distance. When you walk you take in the sceenary. Love it when fit females joggers oblivious to my shades jog by.
===================================
No.
Another myth. I know why you say this: working at a lower intensity requires less quick energy and a higher percentage of fat is burned. But you’ll also burn fewer calories than you would if, for the same amount of time, you work out at a harder intensity (running versus walking).
Hence, walking for 5km will not burn the same calories as running for 5km. Sorry. It’s just science.
Although I do agree with the comments about sunglasses and fit female joggers!
“God bless Lululemon…”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
You would not be saying that if you saw the “made in Brazil” tights and clothing here. Thick and meaty well made for the wife only $18 Cdn. 1/6th the cost of LuLuChina and WAY better quality and way more variety of prints. And the women are way hotter. Just saying hahahaha….
My price-to-rent ratio: 28
Downtown Kelowna, luxury condo, corner unit, top floor. Used to be “show” unit when building was first put up, which means we’re living in the nicest and most spacious unit in the whole building for under half of what “proud owners” are paying.
Plus, we don’t have to attend the lobotomy-inducing condo board meetings. Thank you airlord (a.k.a. “landlord”)!
Oh, and in the almost 5 years we’ve been living here, only one rent increase of……wait for it…..$28 extra per month.
No wonder I laugh at the anti-renter buffoons who come here to warn of “skyrocketing rents.” Clowns, one and all.
@#65, 3BR towns in Orleans, really nice ones, rent for $1500 or less. I know, because I’m in one. That’s less than they were renting for 6 years ago. Same for Kanata and Stittsville. It’s not just Barrhaven. There is nothing wrong with any of those neighbourhoods. Not everyone wants to live downtown, and I’m betting Derek’s house is in one of those locations too.
#118 Q2 Class Duplex Drive on 05.26.16 at 9:15 am
Garth –
No one believes rates will decline in North America going forward, so that’s a red herring. Europe probably, they’re a mess. Really, the issue is whether – and when – rates will rise. You place enormous faith in Yellin’ Janet pulling the pin sooner rather than later, and not just once, either. June is a possibility, I’ll grant that, but during the federal election campaign, getting underway in earnest in July? Not a chance. The Fed is rather averse to injecting itself into these things, especially this year with the bumptious Mr. Trump and the desperate Hillary Clinton running for office. It’ll be June or not at all. My money is on not at all.
Then prepare to lose. — Garth
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I just returned home from a conference in Los Angeles and all I can say is most Americans that I talked to are either pumped, irate as hell, apprehensive or truly disillusioned about the upcoming election. The complexity of their anguish is so polarizing it is worrisome. There are underlying issues that are never covered by the media and they glance over any of the real problems. Not a single person I talked to had any huge issues with Mexicans, NAFTA trade deals, or transgender issues. Every single one was concerned with homeland security, a stable economy, growth in investments and opening up international sales opportunities. They don’t trust Hilary Clinton and they vehemently distrust Donald Trump. So I asked them who you are going to vote for. The overwhelming answer is I don’t know yet. Most leaned toward Hilary Clinton and as Garth indicated they all pointed to growth of the economy during the Democratic tenures as opposed to the Republican growth cycles being miniscule. I have never seen such fear in the American voter’s eyes. They feel that Donald Trump is a boastful egotistical blowhard without any class, especially when hard questions come to him he often name calls or berates his competitors or anyone who questions his stance. They don’t like his flip flops on questions as he is very misleading. One fellow said Donald zigs until he zags and then defends everything by denying his prior stance. A few said they would follow him to the gates of hell and back. I said good luck with that one. Most people are wary of Hillary Clinton but believe that she could at least run a country without inducing a world war due to injudicious diatribes.
Oh November is going to be a hot month in Washington!
“A critical mass is the smallest amount of fissile material needed for a sustained nuclear chain ..
Cells of a malignant tumor eventually kill the host.
A Russian folk proverb: a spoon of oil tar can ruin a barrel of honey”.
Above are just well-known common processes that happens in science, technology and human body.
Why cannot you accept that miserable percent of rich foreign investors can trigger such higher prices in Vancouver and Toronto?
Buy or not to buy? Well not in Toronto or Vancouver. But somewhere were you can afford and pay off mortgage before retirement probably make sense. Let say you are single, do not have much savings, pension is not expected to be great, but your 2 bd. condo is paid off. Sell and rent? Would you still be able to pay 1600$ rent been retired? Just 500$ condo maintenance fee utility included sounds better to me. Also most of us have health problems after 60 : blood pressure, mobility etc. Are you able to pack and move out any time your landlord kick you out of his property? Investments are great, when you have a friend or husband like Garth who can lead or navigate starting in your 30 th. What to do if you never had this luxury on time? Learn? Yes , we learn slow. Thanks for this blog.
Speculation is alive and well in Victoria, apparently.
“A two-bedroom James Bay house that sold for $800,000 about a month ago has just gone back on the market — this time, for $980,000.
Victoria realtor Frank Rudge says he’s never seen a market this hot in more than 40 years of business, and situations like this are just symptoms of that market.
“It’s unprecedented this activity and this competitive selling that’s going on,” he told All Points West host Robyn Burns. “The market’s just going crazy and it’s hard to figure out when it’s going to slow down. I think we’re on a trend for five to seven years.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/victoria-housing-market-1.3600211
Another five to seven years? This guy is delusional…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DS7tcM5CfyA
Australia has same empty condo problem like
Vancouver
BMO slashing almost 1,850 jobs in realignment
Bank loan losses:
#124 Sean on 05.26.16 at 10:33 am asked:
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/business-news/rbc-boosts-qprofit-to-2-57-billion-sets-aside-more-money-for-bad-loans/
When they boost money set aside for bad loans — are they talking mortgages or business loans?
***************************************
Business loans, especially tied to oil and gas industry.
No mortgage loss issues when houses are still at pretty near record levels and anyhow CMHC covers losses in most cases.
Wow,I just saw that my map of America’s richest people at post number 3 is approaching 500 views.
You guys like that stuff huh?
Well here is a more humorous guide to investing on a global scale.
Enjoy…
M41BC
http://imgur.com/CKOs5VS
http://realfinder.ca/R2073245/605_W_23RD_AVENUE
How’s that for a 1 year return. Just keeps on going doesn’t it?
When we’re talking about price-to-rent ratios for houses here, are we talking about price to total rent (the equivalent of price to sales for stocks), or price to net rent, after costs, after tax (the equivalent of price to earnings)?
Because if we’re talking about a price to total rent (sales) of 15 being a good investment, even that sounds high.
CNR stock price is currently at a price to sales ratio of 5.
Just a tip for some of the guys and gals on here if your device does not allow you a clear look at any of the maps or images I post.
Under the image ,click on post options ,then click on download image and it should show you a clearer image.
If not ,get someone younger to tell you what’s going on,they love doing this…
M41BC
#110 BillyBob on 05.26.16 at 7:13 am
Smoking Man on 05.25.16 at 11:36 pm
Good night. Off to club 420.
My back hurts.
Been walking 6km a day for the last week. Joggers run past me all the time.
Losers.
You burn the same carbs if you do the same distance. When you walk you take in the sceenary. Love it when fit females joggers oblivious to my shades jog by.
===================================
No.
Another myth. I know why you say this: working at a lower intensity requires less quick energy and a higher percentage of fat is burned. But you’ll also burn fewer calories than you would if, for the same amount of time, you work out at a harder intensity (running versus walking).
Hence, walking for 5km will not burn the same calories as running for 5km. Sorry. It’s just science.
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
a.) Most people do not know how to walk properly.
b.) Science supports that the most “bang-for-the buck” is HIIT. Go max. for a short period of time, then gentle for a short recovery period. Repeat several times.
#138 Raging Ranter on 05.26.16 at 12:14 pm
——————————————————–
Yes I agree, but my point was you need to compare apples to apples. Derek bought a SFH (not a townhouse) and said the equivalent would rent for $2200/mo. I believe him.
Many people will pay a premium to not live sharing a wall with others, so comparing a $1500/mo 3-br townhouse rental to a $2200/mo 4-br single is definitely an apples-to-oranges comparison.
And let’s look at your townhouse numbers. Ok you can rent a town for $1500. But you can also buy it for $320,000, for a PR ratio of 17.8. Ottawa has been like this for a long time, slightly unaffordable, but just enough so that you can justify buying if you stay long enough.
I told the Bank Of Montreal I was going to move my credit card to another bank. They immediately said they could reduce my interest rate from 19.5% by removing my airmails My interest rate is now 11%
#126 Peter on 05.26.16 at 10:45 am
Top Headline of BBC News today
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36369108
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well at least Moldcouver has a thriving Ferrari market !!
#162 Metaxa on 05.25.16 at 5:19 pm
@ 118 IHCTD9 who writes:
All Trudeau had to do was: “Hey, guys – **work balance**”, and the CBC gets busy writing supportive articles about what a great husband T2 is LMAO!
I thought the Cons were the party of family values yet you seem eager to deny the Trudeau’s the ability to be a family. He’s working the G7 on the actual day so took advantage of a free day in between the Japan trade mission and the start of the G7.
But you know all that, don’t you?
Situational application of core principles is a slippery slope, once you start down its hard to get back up…see Stephen Harper, Mike Duffy, et al. Heck, pick a con MP or Senator really.
BTW, have you looked at the poll results? T2 way up, Muclair way down..the majority of Canadian citizens beyond those who get their into from The Blaze see this tempest for what it really is…fomented by parties who will NOT be forming any government any time soon.
____________________________________________
That is a pretty strenuous reach. They can be a family any time. It would be nice though, if the high exalted mystic ruler could possibly pay for it with his own earnings rather than mooch off the taxpayer.
Don’t bother listing off every right wing politician who’s ever lived that did the same – I feel identical about them.
I don’t look at the polls as I fully expect that Canada has already seen its last true Conservative Government. Everything gets lefty for the Millennial vote going forward.
At this point, it’s just a matter of how long we can go before austerity is unavoidable.
Canada is rich because we pump oil, dig oil, mine nickel, Cobalt, Ore of all kinds, because we cut down trees, because we fish. We are probably the richest nation that shouldn’t be on earth, 37 million – and we live like Americans, maybe better.
Millennials don’t like any of that stuff – it’s all bad.
If the current program persists, we are going to severely handicap that which made us rich, and which allowed ideological pursuits to commence. Eliminating wealth is good, halting NR extraction is good, spending billions on Climate Change is good, costs related to progressive ideals placed upon the taxpayers shoulders is necessary and good.
Anyway, I look forward to the show.
in a southern Ontario town
self ordering machines are installed
mcdonalds corporate pet project
the self ordering machine, according to mcdonalds corporate is expected to generate 25% of a store revenue.
since their initial install to present
the stores are at about 10% and some stores infrequently attain 15%
the current percentage of revenue is characterized by store location.
some stores are at about 7%
#132 Renting and laughing on 05.26.16 at 11:28 am
We’re just moving into our new rental house in the lower mainland.
A 6 bedroom 3500sq foot detached house on 1 acre with mature fruit trees, a lush green lawn and plenty of sun.
Apples, cherries, blueberries, plums and more. It’s an older house but has lots of character…
What does it mean when the price-to-rent ratio 56?
….
It means the landlord likes you and you’re being subsidized to look out for the place.
#129 cramar on 05.26.16 at 11:03 am
But it begs the question: are dumbass dogs smarter than dumbass people?
….
I was going to leap and say people would be smarter, but when I see humans picking up after their pooch… Tough call, indeed. Dumbest dog I knew was a standard poodle living next door named Boner, back when ‘boner’ meant mistake.
Trump Clinches The nomination
As Predicted by yours truly way back when.
All bidders for the Land Registry have links to tax havens
The Times (subscription)-21 hours ago
Two American private equity firms and a Canadian pension fund with business links to tax havens or secretive jurisdictions are believed to be among the venture capital businesses interested in the property ownership database, which collects information on every house sale in England and Wales and is….
May 26 2016, 12:01am, The Times
accounting fraud freddie and fannie
http://wallstreetonparade.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Jason-Thomas-Memo.pdf
Confidential’ Memo in the Hedge Fund Battle for Freddie and Fannie Comes Out of Hiding
http://wallstreetonparade.com/
Alberta
Trump will Build Keystone. Atleased their exists in the northern hymispher a Politican with a brain.
This is good news for you. The other pipe lines in Canada will never happen under Prime minister in hiding Gerald Butts.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-energy-idUSKCN0YH2D9?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28Business+News%29
It means the landlord likes you and you’re being subsidized to look out for the place.
……….
That or it’s in mission or maple ridge
one-fifth of all investor-owned properties lying empty, according to a study of water usage by think tank Prosper Australia.
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/almost-20pc-of-melbournes-investorowned-homes-empty-20151203-glee9q
#159 Smoking Man on 05.26.16 at 4:34 pm
Alberta
Trump will Build Keystone. Atleased their exists in the northern hymispher a Politican with a brain.
This is good news for you. The other pipe lines in Canada will never happen under Prime minister in hiding Gerald Butts.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-energy-idUSKCN0YH2D9?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&
—
Get on the trump train.
An investigation has begun to find out if there is condo improvement/maintenance bid rigging. Afterall, there may be a reason why condo fees are so much higher in Toronto than Montreal and other places.
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=878238