Take a good look at the picture above. Hmm. Stan shot that for me Saturday morning across the street from the bar where he’s the ‘tender.
“Big fan of your blog,” he says (I require everyone to genuflect). “This is a photo of that Vancouver condo that went on sale today in Yaletown. I thought I’d better snap this for you before the line got too long even for me to get a photo.”
It’s interesting for several reasons. First “8x On The Park” is 100% aimed at Millennials. The 35-storey building, which won’t be habitable for three or four years comes with a bike elevator, a pet-washing station, electric vehicle stalls and (of course) ‘lofty’ finishing touches, fake hardwood, messy (but cool) beams thrown across the exterior and a location in the middle of the hot zone for singles who’d rather not be.
Anyway, you can see that from the line-up. Not too many Guangdong industrialists there, I reckon. But a whole lot of debtors to the Bank of Mom.
Second, can there be a better indicator that YVR real estate clap is a communicable disease being passed on dramatically to the young? I doubt it. A studio unit in 8x starts at $509,900, which gives you 446 square feet. A one-bedder is $655,000 (600 feet), two bedroom units (969 feet) are $1.14 million and three-bedders range from $1.8 million to $3.0 million. Plus parking. Plus GST.
The per-foot cost for smaller units is $1,100. Here is how that compares with some other cities:
- Toronto: $650-700
- Calgary: $350
- Montreal: $250-300
- Ottawa: $475-500
- Winnipeg: $240
- Victoria: $350
This blog has stated with nauseating repetition that all real estate is local. In some places, I’d buy easily and without delay. Many markets are stagnant, reasonable and provide accommodation at a decent prices (Halifax, Montreal or most of that flat province, for example). Some are frothy (like Toronto), but so large and diverse there’s value to be found if you look hard enough. Others are a case study in local hysteria and escalating risk. And then there’s Vancouver and (increasingly) most of the Lower Mainland. Off the chart.
Why would any Millennial pay $1,100 for a foot of a condo when that will rent an entire place for three weeks? Simple. They’re infected. They have the FOMO bad, thinking if they don’t buy now, they’ll never own. (Which makes you wonder why anyone would want to possess a $446-foot shoebox for decades to come.) They also have a one-asset view of the world, thanks to parentals and the local media. They believe buying an unbuilt condo at one of the most inflated prices in the world is ‘investing.’ Odds are none of the kids in the picture above have $509,000, let alone $1,8 million, which means they’re willing to shoulder an astonishing level of debt.
So borrowing doesn’t scare them. Leverage is fine. Because, as you know, real estate values always go up, interest rates never do and, besides, everybody’s doing it. Like, just look at that line. Awesome.
The sooner people in Vancouver understand they’re afflicted, the better. It’s not Chinese dudes doing this. It’s not because everyone in Canada wants to live there (they don’t). Rather, cheap money, lax lending and unbridled, infectious, buy-now-or-buy-never local house lust have turned the denizens of Van into property zombies. And now the kids. Sad.
You know how this ends, right?
211 comments ↓
Has that General Store installed M, F and Gen-Neutral washrooms and safe space yet?
There can be no more important topic thrust upon us than this. 101 (expensive) new laws must be written each year – everything must change. Even the “Pope” is re-writing it all. Men as gods acting like animals.
Toronto Raptors final game today. As someone pointed out no Canadian Pro team ever will win finals. Canuck teams (who?) have little in fan, brand and advertising recognition deep in the USA – the largest market.
Finals must involve two US teams to get eyeballs.
Of course each playoff match is drawn out to 7 games. With billions on the line in each game…plus to fund those salaries. There’s just too much money at stake for games.
Bread and Circuses..learn from the past it always repeats.
The lineup looks significantly Asian to me. I wonder how many are paid to stand in line for someone else not here.
“Asian” is a racial classification. It is not a nationality. You’re a dork. That’s apparently genetic. — Garth
Madness. I agree it’s crazy. You can still find value in BC but you have to look far and wide. I’m personally a big fan of ocean waterfront and it can be found at reasonable prices.
Re:”Anyway, you can see that from the line-up. Not too many Guangdong industrialists there, I reckon. ”
I started looking at the line from the right of the picture. First guy I see is a 40-60 year old Chinese guy in a suit.
On holidays in the UK for a couple of weeks. Vancouver prices look “cheap” compared to London’s north side. Our guide mentioned flats can cost 1500 pounds a week to rent here. Touring the city these past few days and riding the tube I can tell you Vancouver ain’t no London.
First? Happy Sunday to Garth and all the dogs! glad I don’t live there… my detached house in rural Ontario cost a fraction of the smallest shoebox unit.
At those prices, I would get the HTMO (happy to miss out) feeling.
But let the suckers line up around the block. Makes for good pic opportunities.
Fair comments Garth. I agree with you on the low interest rates fueling this mania.
The speculative “house porn“ culture where we have turned condos into levered penny stocks is getting way out of hand.
That said – realtors making death threats to people who don`t want to play their game only adds fuel onto the already huge bonfire.
…not well?
How does this end Mr.G?
Besides those house zombies, also the agent are pooling to buy and jack up prices in the two cities as well, reliable source told me agents pool in money to bid property and flip it for quick profit, of course not the pre-construction one but the SFH that is. Scary and super gambling on their liquid assets. Oh well…..
It’s the bank of Mom, Sold three house this week in the 905
all the down payments came from parents. Two co-signed.
I love the fact that because I’m in my sixties, most of my girlfriend’s parents are no longer around, so I don’t have to meet them :)
“You know how this ends, right?”
You’ll be writing the same column on your death bed!
Oh well, life goes on, people are nuts. who cares.
One of my readers sent me his Elliot Wave ABCD analysis of Vancouver SF house prices and his projection for a technical correction:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/elliot-wave
The line-up pictured above has probably never heard of Garth Turner.
Say, 20% down (~$100,000) Total mortgage of at least $450,000 (GST, PPT, closing costs, commissions,), the monthly cost of which is augmented by: insurance (mortgage), insurance (home), utilities, property taxes, condo fees (various and increasing) and more . . .
They will make their monthly nut . . . for a while . . . then: leaky condo! (2nd mortgage), property tax hike!, condo fees rise!, car accident (monthly car insurance doubles, even if no injuries), injury, layoff, sickness, divorce . . . . there are too many vagaries of life for tens, or hundreds of thousands of family budgets running close to the bone for something terrible NOT to happen . . .
And then the dominoes fall.
Where to live? It’s a complicated issue, especially once you are free to choose. For most of our lives the principal concern is gainful employment. We are in the major centers because they offer work. Jobs. Income. Calgary, for example has always drawn people looking for those opportunities. Even in the current economic downturn due to the collapse of the price of oil there are still jobs here. In many ways Calgary has returned to “normal”. The balloon is being deflated, a relief to some. One might think when retirement is around the corner people would leave more expensive cities for the economics of smaller places that offer better weather, lower cost housing, etc. Penticton, Qualicum Beach, etc. But they don’t have the services a big city offers. Or the privacy. And there is always something not disclosed. Lots of talk about the sunny Okanagan, but not much about the horrible winter inversions that cast low cloud and grey skies during the winter months. Or the poor air quality. Or the high crime rate. Nothing about the rain on Vancouver Island. And if you are from the west you know you will never be happy in the east. You will pine away like some Newfoundlander who is forced to leave the Rock to earn a little money. Real estate is complicated. It’s not just about getting bang for your buck. It’s about where you can really feel at home..,.
Now the millennials can brag how much money they’re making now that their “in”.Financial castration at its finest!
This is insane… when are these people going to wake up ?!?!?
I saw a similar scene on the Queensway yesterday (across from the Ontario Food Terminal. A ton of people jammed under tents at 10am with a big meat smoker out front of a condo sales office. Who would want to live across from the food terminal anyways, esp when there are boatload of condos just south of there by the lake?
Not sure which is worse:
the unquestioning lambs to slaughter with the herd mentality or the 3 levels of government /media/financiers /developers preying on them.
When this merry go round stops many who are in a supposed position of leadership and could have mitigated it will be heads down and running for the exits.the fallout will likely be worse than any benefits realized.
What a complete debacle
I attended the presentation center mentioned in today’s post, the flooring in the suite was cheap laminate. Nothing special. And the tower will be situated right across the street from “zero barrier” (drug users welcome) social housing! The larger units will go for well in excess of $2000/Sq ft.
There’s no place like Vancouver Garth. Its time you surrendered.
I remember 30 years ago you could have bought a Loft apt. in Yaletown for $80k………yeeks.
First two words that came to mind when viewing the photo…
Holy _ _ _ _ !!!
I hope that “infection” with all things RE does not spread here… again.
We got to see what happens when Real Estate bought on credit, thin credit, that blows up… does to a world economy that was also infected by AAA investments, that weren’t. Lots of people in the US had their total net worth damaged by that, some will NEVER recover.
Of course, many sold their stock holdings near bottom, and moved into “SAFE” investments, crystalizing their losses. Moved on a few years the ones who held on are more than 100% whole.
Could this repeat itself? Could the market drop 50% AGAIN?
As an investor of modest means, who has played this game for 35 years the answer isa definite YES. I will dam near guarantee you it WILL happen again, and then again, and if you live long enough yet again!!
Any questions?
Oh, by the way it is the best way to keep your money SAFE and growing long term. There is over 100 years of history for you to inspect on that claim.
Need a house???
Last year in Yaletown the going rate was about $800 per foot for a decent resale condo. I am seeing the same buildings selling for $1200 per foot today. The older dated condos is less desirable areas which are due for big special assessments were selling for $650 per foot last year and are now selling for $1000 per foot. That 50% increase happened in literally a matter of 4 months comparing identical unit sales. Justin Trudeau has inflated the bubble more in his first 6 months than Harper did in 10 years.
We also have the Chinese gangs assisting our local realtors.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-realtor-accused-of-making-threats/article30024457/
Debt levels are completely irrelevant to millennials.. they don’t even think about it…….all that matters is the monthly payment seen on the phone…
Fake X beams.. to match the 8X… such brilliant marketing synergy… stunning architecture!… hope it doesn’t fall off in the big one.
Called an agent who listed a house Thursday in Mississauga and today the seller is accepting offers. 4 bedroom 3 baths, unfinished basement, original owner (early 80’s). As of an hour ago they had 13 offers registered. Is the house that amazing? Not really! It’s just that we are “different here”. Lord helps us all. This won’t end well!
Fine post Gart.
Is the end near?
Realtors Dream.
Suckers bet.
Too bad it wont last.
Whoa…is there a Tulip Bulb sale I’m missing?…suckers!
A quick note on professional sports (go raps) as it relates to the hot topic of broader social equality. Let’s take a survey of the room. How many of the readers think they possess the skills necessary to walk on the court and take on Duane Wade or alternatively, just be a third string bench warmer on a 700k contract? God no you say? Bordering on impossible you say? Well I would tend to agree with that. Now take my role for example. I am a simple cog in the financial wheel, I trade bonds for a living. Now how many of you think you could swap out a seat with me and do what I do for say 500k a year? I would hazard to guess at least 25-30% of you would take me to task. So it’s Friday afternoon, markets take a nice dump and most of you guys are already thinking about the weekend. Me? I get a call from a large bank owned asset manager who says ‘Hey Mr.X, got to fund a bunch of redemptions today(that’s you guys hitting the sell button), what’s your bid (I buy) on 50 million Bell 2044s? We do the trade, thank you very much for the liquidity, talk Monday. Tell you what happens next. Markets are basically closed for the weekend, I have no natural hedge. So I go home somewhat disgruntled, inevitably rant some nonsense to wifey, quiet at the dinner table, stare lifelessly into the backyard over Saturday morning coffee while my 5yr old tugs at my arm begging me to play catch but I am too distracted about planning my exit strategy on those Bell 44s. By Sunday night I’m tossing and turning, I start my week Monday morning at 5am tired and praying for vacation with two raquet balls for traps but have not done a shrug in 15 years. This is my life and while I’m certainly not asking for sympathy, the sacrifices of this chosen path are very real and quantifiable. They impact your personal life just like anything else. Everyone in this game suffers from them, there is no magic man who can go home with a clean slate ever night or simply sprinkle a bunch of pixie dust to generate returns or manage risk. It’s countless tireless hours of hard work and perseverance, much like the dedication required of professional athletes. But yet, for some reason the sacrifices of that cohort are somehow better understood and accepted by society. Well of course Lowry deserves10mil a year he was on the court 8hrs a day practicing his jump since age 5 while the other kids were chasing each other in the park and having ice cream. There is a laundry list a mile long of additional sacrifices that I make vs the ave citizen but yet, I am expected to provide a disproportionate share of my wealth to the benefit of everyone else. How is that fair?
All that is to say, we are moving towards a construct where the incremental economic benefit of extremely hard work, does not make sense for the effort required in a 55% tax regime. I just won’t do the work anymore. I’m much better off earning 95k, attending all concerts and soccer practices and playing with my kids with 100% vitality and focus on the weekends. When Justin takes an extra 25-30k away from me a year, I feel that, in a significant way I might add. There is no free lunch anymore, there never was. The path to wealth is long and arduous and my point here is, that if you don’t participate in the sacrifices, much like those of Lowry and Co, you can’t expect or feel somehow entitled to benefit from that same stream of wealth distribution. I think that should be pretty clear right?? This is the last I will say on this topic. Good night to all, go Raps!!!
BJ
What I don’t get is why everyone in Canada doesn’t want to live in Vancouver. I’ve lived on the prairies, in Ontario and in the maritimes. Vancouver is the only place worth living.
Doesn’t the developer know you’re supposed to smash three bedrooms into 550 sq ft these days? At least the over-leveraged moisters can stretch out while they’re enjoying being house poor.
It’s the highest bidder baby!
http://thewalrus.ca/the-highest-bidder/
Those who want to buy in Vancouver are now F&#$#-ed
Aren’t you glad you listed to Garth?
Ah, it’s all become clear to me now. The MOFOs with the FOMO have the Clap. So rather than the bank of mom or low interest rates, after reading an article a couple of weeks ago, I’ve reached the only true conclusion one can. The shortage of the drugs used to treat the clap is at the root of this.
Vancouver Realtor accused of making threats:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-realtor-accused-of-making-threats/article30024457/
Who–except Garth, denies organized crime in Vancouver real estate?
It’s everywhere. What a dumb comment. — Garth
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But 8x on the park looks so cool.
Well worth the asking price.
What’s next? Those “cages” they have in Japan for 400,000.00 per hutch plus maintenance fees?
Hi Garth,
Keep the faith. You’re the only sane voice reaching the BPOE at present.
Can I confirm hysteria is alive and well here in Victoria, People are breathless, either panicking (buy now or be priced out ….) or salivating at the thought of growing equity – though they’ll have to leave to realise a gain. If you doubt a media campaign kicked this off , see below and count quotations from the real estate industry:
Victoria’s affordable homes prompting early moves out of Lower Mainland (Jan 29, Globe and Mail)
When it comes to real estate, is Victoria the next Vancouver (CTV, 2 Feb)
Buying wave sparks bidding battles for Victoria real estate (2 Mar, Times Communist )
Sizzling Victoria real estate market forcing buyers to pay up (31 Mar, Chek News)
Vancouver real estate buyers flooding in to Victoria ( Apr 22, TC )
etc, etc, etc…….
The latest pump the top end of the market; ‘Victoria ranked world’s third hottest luxury home market’ (Bus Vancouver, 13 May) which leaves me speechless ( well, not quite). Top end homes have stagnated for the past few years, selling for less than half the original asking price or not selling at all ! However, what people believe makes the prices go up. I know that as do the real estate industry, bank economists, Christy Clark and Justin Trudeau. Who then will tell us if anything changes?
I don’t come from here. People don’t move that much or talk much about real estate back there. Here, it’s what you hear in every coffee bar and every restaurant. So, the hockey stick will continue to go up. That is, until it doesn’t:
http://www.torontocondobubble.com/2013/08/ultimate-guide-to-housing-bubbles.html
Everyone knows it won’t end well. The question is “when?”
the trend is firmly upwards.
Just as the massive increase in Chinese Money supply is, according to this.
https://katusaresearch.com/dragon-economics-101-how-chinese-money-will-supercharge-asset-prices/
All that money is contributing in some way to RE bubbles in Sydney, London, Melbourne, Vancouver
YVR is so infected, it’s insane. You’re a loser if you don’t have a $700,000 mortgage.
“So borrowing doesn’t scare them. Leverage is fine. Because, as you know, real estate values always go up, interest rates never do and, besides, everybody’s doing it.”
Of course because everybody is doing it the interest rates will never go up.. if they will, the entire economy will be destroyed and money will value nothing…. I think the world is changing… look at the job profiles… many disappear, many are changing…. What was in the past a normal interest rate, will never be again… the only problem is to figure out where the world is going….
Rule of 90 question:
I understand the max, but is there a minimum % of your portfolio that should be in RE, or is it like gold where I get enough exposure with broad ETFs?
So little time to post lately.
The idea of HAM is so 2015, whether you’re talking about Vancouver, Victoria or anywhere else in Canada.
Of course, in Victoria, the stats clearly show that only 0.68% of all real estate deals went to buyers from Asia (see chart)
Garth has maintained all along that it isn’t buyers from Asia that are moving Vancouver’s market – it’s locals.
Anyone who insists that it’s all about HAM should consider what happened with house prices in Vancouver in 2008-09 when the usual suspects (real estate “professionals” and the media) claimed that buyers from Asia were moving the market.
In 2008-09, house prices in Vancouver fell at a rate of 14.2% per year (for 10 months) until emergency interest rates were brought in.
. . . . . Vancouver House Prices. . . . . .
. Percent Below July 2008 Price Level . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . .July. . . . December. . . . May. . .
. . . . . 2008. . . . . 2008 . . . . . 2009. . .
(source: Teranet’s index)
Prices in Vancouver would have continued to fall (crash?) in 2009 if rates hadn’t suddenly been slashed from near-normal to emergency levels.
The idea that HAM would prevent a major price decline from beginning in Vancouver in 2008 was proven wrong.
The idea that HAM will prevent a major price decline from beginning again in Vancouver is simply ridiculous.
Canada’s record-low and continually falling interest rates, mortgage fraud, lax lending standards, etc. are the reason behind Vancouver’s housing bubble – not HAM. The same can be said about any other Canadian city.
House prices across Canada have become increasingly sensitive to slight moves in interest rates. In Vancouver, Teranet’s price data shows that house prices began to hockey stick right around the time that the Bank of Canada lowered interest rates in early 2015 (and mid-2015). Other major Canadian cities reacted positively at the same time, including Victoria.
That house prices in Canada have become increasingly sensitive to slight moves in interest rates is bad news for Canadian mortgage holders.
Garth has also mentioned several times that 5-year fixed mortgage rates in Canada will begin to move higher soon regardless of what the Bank of Canada does with its key rate. Within 2 to 3 years you should expect to see 5-year mortgage rates north of 5% again in Canada.
Each slight tick higher will eliminate a percentage of potential buyers and will lower buyer confidence. House prices in Canada, which have proven to be extremely sensitive to small moves in mortgage rates, will fall as a result.
Rising house prices beget even higher prices. This has everything to do with emotion (fear and greed).
Unfortunately for Canadian mortgage holders, it’s also true that falling house prices beget even lower prices.
And house values can decrease faster than they increased. There are numerous examples from around the world to prove this. A good example of this is the performance of San Francisco’s housing market from 2006 to 2009 (see chart).
Note that house prices in San Francisco stopped falling mostly as a result of interest rates being slashed from near-normal to emergency levels in 2009. Another rate slash like that won’t be possible in Canada. Simply put: there will be no San Francisco-style price recover in Vancouver or any other Canadian city.
Canadian mortgage rates will be rising as its housing market corrects.
this pic lets me think of the hag…
big city pick me up and set me down
somewhere in the middle of montana
#15 Life among the Stars on 05.15.16 at
That’s because the system is broken and millennials can sense it.
Some of us were holding out trying to do the “right thing” by saving and investing, but we got burned by oil/the Fed/the BoC etc. A few on here have mentioned the lacklustre gains made in the market the past few years, and how our savings rate is doing all the heavy lifting. Nobody, or few people trust the heavily manipulated financial markets. Here, most people still trust real estate, well that is until the incompetent leaders at the top fail like they always do, and the system collapses like it always does. That should come soon.
Also, when the Libs came into power and spent billions on absolute BS like UN climate change initiatives, the refugees etc. The feeling was why, when nobody else gives a crap about debt, why should I?”
MF
#12 Freedom First fan club member
Actually, my cutoff is 43.
WARNING
off topic, but finger licking good !!!
#218 maxx on 05.15.16 at 3:41 pm
So you dont buy that time and money, intereating. I am a working stiff so from my own experience more hours i put in more money I bring home, that was especially true when i was door to door, dollar store towel, sales associate. More doors i knocked on more sales i made. But that is just me, i tend to do all the right stuf wrong way…
That is simply not true, that it takes same amount of time to cook from the scratch vs 1/2 process ed food. Tell me how it would take you to prepare
calf’s head. I remember my mother would spend whole afternoon of preparation and baking to feed us calf’s head for dinner.
Just in case if you wont to try that calf head here are two different ways of preparing, my mother would make c h it in a pressure cooker. dont get all grossed out its just a whole food preparation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/food/0/20154487
and Canadians living in TX
https://youtu.be/xT7suyTO8Kw
Those people in that line have been sent by chinese mainlanders to hold their spot in line until they can show up in their lambo’s. They will be “shadow flipped” for the next several months until the 1 bed is 1.8 million and they go up from there. The millenials have already been “priced out”. The Vancouver sub prime mortgage market is just getting started.
Garth some research done by your buddy Ross Kay..
http://www.rosskay.com/vancouvers-ponzi-scheme.html
I wonder if there is partly a trickle down effect. The high end luxury is now pricing out the high salary executive who pushes prices up slightly down market. This pushes upper middle class buyers slightly down market pushing those prices up so that middle class buyers….
We The North, Ha!!! what a joke, our Americans beating other Americans.
The square filled with mind fkd Millennial’s. Cheering and celibrating 3 pointers when they are spiritually, mentally, and financially bent over and getting it from a ruthless elephant. That elephant isen’t capitalism, It’s full blown communism.
The men, what men? They don’t exist anymore, their minds owned by estrogen ravaged Illogical mood swings.
Real men are hunters, find, kill, eat. What we have now are teat sucking goofs programmed to make there unionized teacher happy, those mindless morons that put all this shit into there heads happy.
Other than a Mind fkd millennial who in there right mind would buy 400 sqt.
Hell when I take of my trousers I need at leased 700 sqft to avoid bumping into anything.
Going to Niagara Falls next month. What should I check out, while there? Thank You.
PB43
I know how this ends!!It ends higher,higher and higher.It ends when wages start to stagnant,but for know everybody in Vancouver makes big money.
I have the best life in the whole world and it’s super to be me. I only listen to me. My gun’s bigger than yours. Mom’s letting me stay up late tonight. I have the best life ever! I really love cows.
The 500,000 question is: What will be the catalyst for people to stop blaming others (foreigners aka Chinese) and realize this is a bubble, stimulating the beginning of the end?
DELETED
People are nuts that still buy in GTA and Vancouver. They should look at cities like London ON. Look what you get in London backing onto river ravine for 319k in a great area of the city: http://idx.mresdms.com/idx2/properties/display_property.html?key=130895.5525312&id=5353524&ptype=RES
Here are the more detailed numbers premium service business YoY revenue growth (or shrinkage) for all of you…
My one westcoast location: +50% (note – this was an abnormal growth rate – we are tracking for closer to mid-20s this month)
My NE operations are averaging: +22%
BC continues to gain: +20% (including significant growth in Okanagon and Vancouver Island)
ON also: +15%
Some areas are still feeling the pain…
Montreal: -20%
Ottawa: -10%
Sask: -15%
Alberta: -10%
#54 Prairieboy43 on 05.15.16 at 7:29 pm
Going to Niagara Falls next month. What should I check out, while there? Thank You.
PB43
….
Cross the boarder. I’m here often.
http://senecaniagaracasino.com
Drinks are free. And you can blow smoke into the faces of mind fkd millenials
#56 Freedom First on 05.15.16 at 7:32 pm
I have the best life in the whole world and it’s super to be me. I only listen to me. My gun’s bigger than yours. Mom’s letting me stay up late tonight. I have the best life ever! I really love cows.
..
Northern Thailand. You need to find love if you want to live long. My wife and kids forced me into the hospital while I was kicking and screaming
I got this , I’m a man. I’ll handle it..
Prince was loveless when he faced the same demon I did.
I lived, he died……
Mom says…from what she can tell, I’ve got the clap. Oh well, life is amazing. I’m amazing. I always knew my life would be this good. Thanks Mom.
#53 Smoking Man on 05.15.16 at 7:27 pm
We The North, Ha!!! what a joke, our Americans beating other Americans.
The square filled with mind fkd Millennial’s. Cheering and celibrating 3 pointers when they are spiritually, mentally, and financially bent over and getting it from a ruthless elephant. That elephant isen’t capitalism, It’s full blown communism.
The men, what men? They don’t exist anymore, their minds owned by estrogen ravaged Illogical mood swings.
Real men are hunters, find, kill, eat. What we have now are teat sucking goofs programmed to make there unionized teacher happy, those mindless morons that put all this shit into there heads happy.
Other than a Mind fkd millennial who in there right mind would buy 400 sqt.
Hell when I take of my trousers I need at leased 700 sqft to avoid bumping into anything.
—
The one and only smokey stud….an alien beast….. pure kavorka.
Some of the folks in line don’t look old enough to vote, let alone sign a contract for mega-bucks. Some may be tire kickers – just going in to check out the show suite & see what is being offered. I’ve done that myself, to see just how designers fit all the amenities into a tiny space.
The prices are beyond idiotic. For $1,100 per square foot, I’d be expecting gold leaf to decorate most of the surfaces. Instead, maybe some quartz, granite or other surfacing, engineered instead of solid hardwood flooring & do they even get concrete or will this edifice of overpricing be wood framed? I’ll admit, I’ve a bias against condos. Pay the same or more as buying a stand alone abode to have the privilege of living downtown (with all the traffic noise & crime) albeit one can ‘walk everywhere’. PLUS pay condo fees (aka ‘rent’) forever, as well as potentially have the control freaks from hell join the condo board, where they will happily legislate to the 10th degree so you might be told, no pets, no children, no parties, no plants taller than X number of inches, no rentals, no overnight guests w/o prior permission etc. Its like living with your parents, except they might be more flexible on a lot of those issues. At least if one rented the unit one could find other digs. Unless you are very rich indeed, once you buy you are stuck until you can sell or (if allowed) rent that unit out to someone who wouldn’t mind having their every move under scrutiny.
#54 Prairieboy43 on 05.15.16 at 7:29 pm
Going to Niagara Falls next month. What should I check out, while there? Thank You.
PB43
*******************************
Real estate is reasonably priced there and you’re not too far from the centre of the universe Toronto. Much closer to Buffalo though. If you are just going for holiday, see Niagara on the Lake, and VINEYARDS!
#26 BS
What do you think Justin did to inflate this bubble further?
Does anyone think Justin did anything at all?
#47 MF on 05.15.16 at 7:04 pm
#15 Life among the Stars on 05.15.16 at
That’s because the system is broken and millennials can sense it.
Some of us were holding out trying to do the “right thing” by saving and investing, but we got burned by oil/the Fed/the BoC etc. A few on here have mentioned the lacklustre gains made in the market the past few years, and how our savings rate is doing all the heavy lifting. Nobody, or few people trust the heavily manipulated financial markets. Here, most people still trust real estate, well that is until the incompetent leaders at the top fail like they always do, and the system collapses like it always does. That should come soon.
Also, when the Libs came into power and spent billions on absolute BS like UN climate change initiatives, the refugees etc. The feeling was why, when nobody else gives a crap about debt, why should I?”
MF
….
So young yet so smart…sorry gc. The kid has potential.
Give him a chance. He’s coming around.
#53 Smoking Idiot:
“Hell when I take of my trousers I need at leased 700 sqft to avoid bumping into anything.”
That would be to make room for your man-boobs and beer gut?
(How many years has it been since you laid eyes on your tiny little friend, SM? Such an emasculated turd)
You can only tap a toonie so many times across a table before it falls off the edge.
The trick is knowing your limits and knowing where the edge is.
Clearly, these people are aware of neither.
DELETED
Sherly Valintine. I’m hammered and ready to disappoint.
Is being alive not wonderfull.
#59 Dups on 05.15.16 at 7:48 pm
People are nuts that still buy in GTA and Vancouver. They should look at cities like London ON. Look what you get in London backing onto river ravine for 319k in a great area of the city: http://idx.mresdms.com/idx2/properties/display_property.html?key=130895.5525312&id=5353524&ptype=RES
——————————————————————————–
What would that house cost if the same house in Toronto didn’t run $1 million+? Less than half, I would bet.
Sunday
Church day…….
Hammered. On the ear buds. Flyen
https://youtu.be/4oYp3AQqG1U
My cousin’s millennial (30 yo) girlfriend just bought a million dollar townhouse near where all the junkies live in YVR. She told me she expects to sell it for $3 million in two years and will retire. I didn’t know what to say, how is one supposed to respond?
#69 james on 05.15.16 at 8:21 pm
#53 Smoking Idiot:
“Hell when I take of my trousers I need at leased 700 sqft to avoid bumping into anything.”
That would be to make room for your man-boobs and beer gut?
(How many years has it been since you laid eyes on your tiny little friend, SM? Such an emasculated turd)
….
Give it up james. Your a chic with a brush cut.
Altho you have adopted a real mans name.
You suffer from estrogen confusion.
Yes, we know how it ends: in the worst case scenario it will end with a permanently high plateau; in the best one – prices will keep going up.
Canada will be the exception among countries that experienced a housing bubble simply because of foreign money coming in uncontrollably. The authorities are too high on fat tax incomes to stem this disaster somehow. Seems like good little Canadian citizens are the long-term losers here.
Friend of mine put his house in the GTA for sale a couple of months ago. A week before the day when bids were accepted, in comes a Chinese guy and offers 100k (12.5%) over the asking price, all cash, so he sold the house. And yeah, that was HAM.
Looking at the picture: no Guangdong industrialists (they buy mansions, not condos), but apart from the chick speaking on the phone, most are Asians and some elders (lady with the red purse) among them too – just like I saw in Toronto and reported here before.
‘Asians’ can be Canadians, too. Just like you, but probably with a better tude. — Garth
#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.15.16 at 5:25 pm
”I remember 30 years ago you could have bought a Loft apt. in Yaletown for $80k………yeeks.”
And at that same time you could have bought a 3 b.r. condo next to Cap College for $72,000. I looked at one as a possible investment when there for Expo. After that, prices started to climb.
How can someone say that buying real estate in Vancouver is NOT investing??? EVERYONE who has bought in Vancouver for the past 20 years has made tons of money! There are so many of us wanting to buy a place in Vancouver that the market can sustain itself for years and years. Even if it slows to going up only a $300,000-$500,000 per year only. Whose investment portfolio gains that much every year?
It ticks me off when oldies make fun of electric cars too, just because some of you have polluted our water and air doesn’t mean that the young generation has to. This developer is thinking ahead by providing electric car charging. Sorry had to get that off my chest.
Ah, where does electricity come from? I mean besides the wall receptacle in your $600,000 condo. — Garth
#62 Smoking Man on 05.15.16 at 7:59 pm
#56 Freedom First on 05.15.16 at 7:32 pm
I have the best life in the whole world and it’s super to be me. I only listen to me. My gun’s bigger than yours. Mom’s letting me stay up late tonight. I have the best life ever! I really love cows.
..
Northern Thailand. You need to find love if you want to live long. My wife and kids forced me into the hospital while I was kicking and screaming
I got this , I’m a man. I’ll handle it..
Prince was loveless when he faced the same demon I did.
I lived, he died……
********
Dear Mr. Smoking Man,
My life is amazing and up next…my 70’s! That’ll be fabulous….and then my 80’s….and my 90’s are going to rock! Best of all, when I die, I get to take all my money with me. I won’t have to share it with anyone….YES!!!!
Over $610 thousand for 446 s.f. of air space, insane. And no land to go with it, lol.
#34 Vanreal on 05.15.16 at 5:58 pm
”What I don’t get is why everyone in Canada doesn’t want to live in Vancouver. I’ve lived on the prairies, in Ontario and in the maritimes. Vancouver is the only place worth living.”
But you havn’t lived until you’ve lived in Nanaimo or Lillooet.
‘Asians’ can be Canadians, too. Just like you, but probably with a better tude. — Garth
Yoda is Asian. Smartest mofo I’ve ever met in my 60 years watching you humans.
His kid. Will be a star on the PGA.
#79 Freedom First on 05.15.16 at 8:56 pm
#62 Smoking Man on 05.15.16 at 7:59 pm
#56 Freedom First on 05.15.16 at 7:32 pm
I have the best life in the whole world and it’s super to be me. I only listen to me. My gun’s bigger than yours. Mom’s letting me stay up late tonight. I have the best life ever! I really love cows.
..
Northern Thailand. You need to find love if you want to live long. My wife and kids forced me into the hospital while I was kicking and screaming
I got this , I’m a man. I’ll handle it..
Prince was loveless when he faced the same demon I did.
I lived, he died……
********
Dear Mr. Smoking Man,
My life is amazing and up next…my 70’s! That’ll be fabulous….and then my 80’s….and my 90’s are going to rock! Best of all, when I die, I get to take all my money with me. I won’t have to share it with anyone….YES!!!!
….
Sharing is so under rated.. ask my homeless palls. Only humans I like.
Amazing stories. I’m a gifted writer with shit technical skills.
Man you need love.. it’s underrated too.
Victoria 3rd hottest luxury market…
Bilge dredged up by shoebox-dwelling cubicle dweebs. They count “luxury” as $1 million+. Million buck shacks are pretty common these days and $1 million is barely a down payment in cities like NY or London where entry level “luxury” is $10 million+.
$1 mil buys a very ordinary house in any Canadian city worth living in, “luxury” maybe in North Bay or Corner Brook or Buttf*ck Falls.
Pay attention YVR, right now from a ride in the skytrain i counted the cranes along couple of stations:
Joyce 3, Patterson 2, Metrotown 5, Gilmore 2, Brentwood 5 so you have 15-17 highrises under construction multiply by 30 stores 8 apt per cloor and 3 ppl/ family gives you 12-14000 people only in half Burnaby. Guess how much is the migration/year in BC?
20-30.000 top so tell me how this ends if only one city covers half the influx?
So, can we agree Debt has become weaponized in Canada?
What it means is, look south. Many cities, like Detroit appear as war zones. Rubble. People, businesses, houses. How many others died a fast financial death after their housing and credit collapse.
#20 rainclouds nailed it: “3 levels of government /media/financiers /developers preying on them”
I just calculated for the heck of it what the bathroom in one of those 446 s.f. condos would be worth and it came out to $54,864. How nutso is that?
#54 Prairieboy43 on 05.15.16 at 7:29 pm
Brazilian stake house !!! There are two with in walking distance from new casino, both are good, summer time usually we visit one that is not in hotel, and winter time time choice would be the one with patio,
and winter time other one is chosen because $off coupon with hotel stay.
Bit up the road there is our late at night favorite burger joint Flying Saucer Restaurant.
Kids like aviary and butterfly conservatory, Frends of ours and us (kids included) went for GF magic show and dinner, that was nice was nice.
Dont know when and how long will be you visit, maybe look in to winery tours and vine tasting, we personally never took one, but people that we know say that is ok some of them have incorporated food in to tours.
and if you like theater plays head for Niagara on the lake.
i think that there is some tourist improvment fee, look at you bill and REFUSE TO PAY IT, it supostu be volontery, but its just rip of…
Bring lots of money, everything is expensive (overpriced)…
coupons
https://www.niagarafallstourism.com/coupons/
some deals can be found here
http://www.shawfest.com/
hope that this helps…
#43 Bubu
”What was in the past a normal interest rate, will never be again… the only problem is to figure out where the world is going….”
Same thing was being said in the 70’s when average Vancouver price was $58,000. They were saying that we would never see 10% ever again when rates were 12%. In the 80’s when interest rates hit 23%, they were still running to the bank to get a mortgage fearing rates would go higher. The herd never learns.
The Un known. Under rated sort of like me.
https://youtu.be/mkdjbk_G6pw
I’m back bitches.can drink wine. And a wee shot of JD.
Life’s to short to avoid outer dementiional inspiration.
God damn Nictonites. Why me..
Don’t come back to long branch. Leave me alone.
Had a good life till your orange plasma flyer came to my back yard and mind fkd me.
I’m not helping you pricks anymore. Write your oun book.
“#33 Bond Junkie on 05.15.16 at 5:56 pm ”
You are a phenomenal idiot. As big a whiner as Justine Bieber. Cry me a F**king river.
Here’s a scenario for you. You drown your sorrows a bit to much on Sunday night but heroically get up at five Monday morning and go to the office. You set your Starbucks mochachicopukealatte on your desk and race for the bathroom. The whiskey shits ensue and happened so quick that you didn’t quite land on the seat yet. You manage to clean yourself up but the facilities are a different story. No one saw you so you return to your desk leaving the disgusting mess behind you. An hour later some guy or gal trying to feed and house their family, maybe a single Mom, shows up and cleans up your mess without complaining for twelve bucks an hour because she has to take care of her kids that some prick like you ran out on and forgot. That’s what people like you are like.
Cry me a river you parasite. Virtually everyone I’ve ever met with about a 15% exception carry on like you regardless of what they do for a living and very often with far less in return for much more harrowing efforts and sacrifices has complaints like yours. How many days do you want to keep coming back to work when that single mom didn’t come in and do her job? Still you are so much more valuable, you just told us so.
Self important idiots like you are a waste of oxygen. You make me sick with your whining. Get a grip or at least go (huh, two possible endings here?) burn one and get over yourself. (not my preferred ending but I don’t think Garth would have let me tell BJ to………wait I’ve never said no to a BJ even from a few women I didn’t find that attractive. God now I’m confused) Ah never mind BJ go be fruitfull and multiply with yourself.
Mr. Turner,
(Genuflection implied). According to a story in Friday’s G&M (Toronto’s National Newspaper), Lord Black of Coal Harbour is selling his Bridle Path mansion (pending lifting of full value liens by CRA and IRS) only to rent it back from a new owner. Sound’s like he’s also a Blog Dog!
Well Garth it looks like Benny Tal who you often cite on this blog has come out with 2 conclusions based on his sources: Pure foreign investment is probably much smaller than perceived and foreign satellite family situations are probably much more common than perceived. He also comments as we all are now aware that there is significant motivation for the Chinese to move their capital out of China and that it is expected that capital will move into real estate in Canada, fueling some markets, and prices in which direction? (obviously not down). This from a respected major bank dude. At some point the elephant in the room will be too big to ignore, even for a man who is adamant capital flight from China has nil to do with the enormous price appreciation in certain parts of BC.
This HAM perception is really starting to hit the mainstream in ways it hasn’t before now. Media….
If my club 27 nephew and that gorgouis fire fighter that fell off a cliff at Kelso this week not teach you anything.
Aliens controlling my thumb
https://youtu.be/G5NtzB-voZo
Feels like we’re due for another recession. Could Trump or Clinton mess up the economy in 2017? I’d hate to be right about that while sitting on one of those 8x balconies. Could you imagine watching half your equity in one of those 3 bedrooms go down the Kohler? And its an earthquake zone. TOO MUCH RISK!!
Freedom First
So sad you got nobody to love.
https://youtu.be/kijpcUv-b8M
9 octaves. I love this man…..
91 Smoking Man on 05.15.16 at 9:25 pm
The Un known. Under rated sort of like me.
https://youtu.be/mkdjbk_G6pw
I’m back bitches.can drink wine. And a wee shot of JD.
Life’s to short to avoid outer dementiional inspiration.
…
Listen to me, Butterfly, there’s only so much wine
You can drink in one life
But it will never be enough
To save you from the bottom of your glass
Where the state highway starts, I parked my car
I got out and stared up at the stars
As meteors dived and shot across the sky
I thought about your sad, shining eyes
I came back for my clothes
When the sun finally rose
But you were still passed out on the floor
#16 the Jaguar
Great Post!
———————————–
Garth, great as always; I have no words for today’s blog; just the action of shaking my head from side to side.
#74 Smoking Man on 05.15.16 at 8:39 pm
Sunday
Church day…….
Hammered. On the ear buds. Flyen
https://youtu.be/4oYp3AQqG1U
XOXOXOXOOX
Party on the starship.. the smokey stud is back!! Slaying commies, teachers, millenials and stud haters….Church is overrated.. really uptight folks…. the book the book will now be finished and then the starship book tour can begin with me riding shot gun with captain smokey babe.
Dear Mr. Smoking Man,
I have talked with Mom about your idea of getting me a nice white girl from Thailand. As long as she won’t speak unless she’s spoken to, that sounds great. Please make sure she’s has little to no schooling and I would prefer her to be as insecure as possible so she’ll do whatever I say, whenever I say it. I will be her Lord and master.
DELETED
The Immense Power of “Everyone Else is Doing It”
Garth said, about millennials: So borrowing doesn’t scare them. Leverage is fine. Because, as you know, real estate values always go up, interest rates never do and, besides, everybody’s doing it. Like, just look at that line. Awesome.
********************************************
The bit about everybody’s doing it is so true and so very powerful.
People will do really dumb things if the crowd is doing it. Like riot, like tip over cars. Like go on thin ice. Like stand on a highway in a crowd. Walk across the street against a red light. Like engage in unprotected casual sex. Binge drink. Pay $200 for a concert ticket. Stand in line for six hours. Refuse a back to work order. Go on strike. And even, most shockingly, vote NDP in Alberta.
People are hard wired to go along with the crowd.
Buying a $600k Condo and taking on a mega mortgage is absolutely influenced heavily by the comfort that this is what others are doing.
And if it stops being seen as “the thing to do” then the disappearance of buyers could be epic.
Until then, for most of us, it is nothing if not entertaining.
Garth, you must be the last person in Canada who doesn’t believe capital outflows from the PRC are the underlying cause of Vancouver’s malaise. What further proof do you need to finally admit you are wrong?
No proof at 8x. The underlying cause of Van’s malaise is Vancouver house lust. — Garth
#88 Ronaldo that works out to about $5.00 for every #2 you take , might as well buy 3 ply toilet paper as well.
#101 Freedom First on 05.15.16 at 10:05 pm
Dear Mr. Smoking Man,
I have talked with Mom about your idea of getting me a nice white girl from Thailand. As long as she won’t speak unless she’s spoken to, that sounds great. Please make sure she’s has little to no schooling and I would prefer her to be as insecure as possible so she’ll do whatever I say, whenever I say it. I will be her Lord and master.
….
No. form my experience. You give her everything. She gives back everything.
It’s called love. It feels great. Only reason to live. You don’t get it.
You will dye young.
and yet that one bed they pay 655 now will probably sell for 900 when it’s ready… Multiple offers of course
#20 & #87 Rainclouds / Turner Nation
Predators / Weaponized DEBT? interesting Concept.
Not new, see US international Aid Development 1970’s onward….
Just this time it is totally localized.
#57 ed on 05.15.16 at 7:33 pm
”The 500,000 question is: What will be the catalyst for people to stop blaming others (foreigners aka Chinese) and realize this is a bubble, stimulating the of the end?”
When Kathy Tomlinson of the Globe and Mail through her ongoing efforts uncovers one of the biggest ponzi schemes in real estate history. Go Kathy go.
#106 Smoking Man on 05.15.16 at 10:20 pm
#101 Freedom First on 05.15.16 at 10:05 pm
Dear Mr. Smoking Man,
I have talked with Mom about your idea of getting me a nice white girl from Thailand. As long as she won’t speak unless she’s spoken to, that sounds great. Please make sure she’s has little to no schooling and I would prefer her to be as insecure as possible so she’ll do whatever I say, whenever I say it. I will be her Lord and master.
….
No. form my experience. You give her everything. She gives back everything.
It’s called love. It feels great. Only reason to live. You don’t get it.
You will dye young.
****
No Mr. Smoking Guy, I will live forever! I have lots of money and I’m the happiest guy in the world because I’m single and I love cows and my 70’s and 80’s are going to be the best years of my life! Are the women in the picture on today’s blog post “Asian?” They don’t seem white to me. Do they cook and clean well like girls in Alberta?
Melinial men walk the streets in this sound.
Grow a set
https://youtu.be/u9Dg-g7t2l4
Garth, I see you use the 5% number for foreign real estate purchases in Vancouver. That’s a number based off a different city from a few years ago but it’s as good as any.
My question: what if you’re wrong? If the number is 35% then how does your prescription for the city change? Tell people to leave and let the city become Monaco?
I recall some poster under the name BPOE who used to comment here about how YVR real estate was going straight to the moon. He was frequently ridiculed. Crazy thing is that he was right. Wonder how he made out? Probably better than most of the people who thought he was nuts.
It’s not only that people are crazy but looks like Governments are also irresponsible and letting people take any amount of debt and insuring it through CMHC.
Why don’t the Govt. make a law that the mortgage rate for the second home will be at 15%
You know how this ends, right?
no I really don’t but it starts when people lose their nerve
Chaddywack: A guy at my work just bought his 4th house this year. anyway he mortgaged his house in West Van worth about $3M to buy 2 houses earlier this year, then a third, now a fourth!
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/04/11/cruel-april/
the guy will lose his nerve at the same time everybody else does. Like the stock market crash in 1929.
At those prices? If I had to guess, even if someone handed you the deed to one of those condos completely free, you’d still pay more in property tax and condo fees than I do in rent.
(Also, wow, they actually made Yaletown uglier since I left. I didn’t know that was possible.)
#110 Freedom First on 05.15.16 at 10:55 pm
#106 Smoking Man on 05.15.16 at 10:20 pm
#101 Freedom First on 05.15.16 at 10:05 pm
Dear Mr. Smoking Man,
I have talked with Mom about your idea of getting me a nice white girl from Thailand. As long as she won’t speak unless she’s spoken to, that sounds great. Please make sure she’s has little to no schooling and I would prefer her to be as insecure as possible so she’ll do whatever I say, whenever I say it. I will be her Lord and master.
….
No. form my experience. You give her everything. She gives back everything.
It’s called love. It feels great. Only reason to live. You don’t get it.
You will dye young.
****
No Mr. Smoking Guy, I will live forever! I have lots of money and I’m the happiest guy in the world because I’m single and I love cows and my 70’s and 80’s are going to be the best years of my life! Are the women in the picture on today’s blog post “Asian?” They don’t seem white to me. Do they cook and clean well like girls in Alberta?
.
What ever works for you..
My alien prison gards are trying to help you via my thumb strokes.
I’m for hokkers and crack. But …..
The Guandong comment was a setup… Garth isn’t stupid, everyone that took the bait just might be. It’s all about data collection… and knowing who thinks what.
I’ve been living in Vancouver a long time now. I do have to admit that in the past 2 – 3 years it’s unprecedented how many Lambo’s, Ferrari’s, Bentley’s, Maserati’s and other high-end cars are on the road. Factor that in with the high-end retailers that have set up shop and of course the insane housing market and you have yourselves a conspiracy. Something is happening… problem is, nobody has an effing clue what it is. HAM, debt pigs, banks, Mom; who knows. Nobody does.
The only thing that is certain is what’s in front of your eyes. In Vancouver, it’s certain that $$$ is at tsunami levels… not just real estate either. Cars, clothes, toys, surgeries, you name it… but, the corruption can’t stop and the politicians know it.
https://youtu.be/aCz6hvC5qzI
Me
The other day l watched a t.v.program about sherpas and Mount Evererest.Climbing MtEverest has become such a popular to-do list item ,that there are litterally long line up’s to get to the summit.Some people pay up to $100,000 to have the privilege of waiting in line to potentially end up falling off a cliff. For some reason ,I couldnt help thinking about the line ups in front of REsales offices.
Trying to live this song
https://youtu.be/0sB3Fjw3Uvc
Fkg Nictonites let me lose so I can feel it.
Relax Garth. It’s different this time.
“Anyway, you can see that from the line-up. Not too many Guangdong industrialists there, I reckon.”
I’m dating a woman (former banker) from Guangdong and even she agrees that you need to visit the optometrist. She’s currently shopping for a condo and when the right one comes along the money will be sent from China. That being said, the stories in the local paper are reminiscent of the Nazi era. It’s shameful the way the Chinese are being scapegoated for doing what any sensible person in their situation would do: protect your assets and get out of Dodge.
While I agree that the bottom to middle end of the market is fueled by locals(to whom I formerly referred to as fools), the top end is being driven by Chinese money. There is a lot of money from the Middle East pouring in too.
One advantage to living here in Vancouver is that you can make friends from just about every part of the world. When I was a kid wealthy “refugees” from Iran bought houses in our neighbourhood and in much better ones too. Their kids became Canadians and our friends who camped,fished,hiked, and graduated from school with. All of our lives are richer because of that initial misfortune that brought them to our shores.
Can’t say if they’re Canadian citizens, residents, students or industrialists. But a blow up of your pic clearly shows that 80% are not millennials and are of Asian decent.
Strange right?
Garth:
I live in Surrey, BC. 35% population is Indo Canadian.
I go to open houses and give to 1st hand observation.
Almost all viewers are either Indio Canadians or of Chinese origin.
I know that RE values have been depressed in India for a few years now, so the money to fuel Surrey RE is certainly not coming from India. I trust the rest should be obvious to the reader.
And there have been times when open house is declared closed at 4pm yet the viewers kept coming and the realtor had to show past6 pm!!
Good luck to those who followed your advice and sold and became tenants in musty/damp basements.
““Asian” is a racial classification. … — Garth”
— Wrong!
Asian people[1] or Asiatic people[2] are people who descend from a portion of Asia’s population.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_people
Seems like a paranoia, never say ‘asia’ never say ‘africa’
Can we at least silently watching? :-)
#33
“I’m much better off earning 95k, attending all concerts and soccer practices and playing with my kids with 100% vitality and focus on the weekends.”
I would go with that.
Hey BJ #33
Do you really expect blog dogs to read your 600-1000 letters? Forget it man. Wanna get readers? Consolidate man. Not interested in scrolling through all your stuff, as edifying as it must be.
$1100 for just a foot. In some countries you can get a kidney for that price!
A bike elevator? Cool…..but where will I ride the darn thing??
Hey BJ #33 no one knows what the #### you are talking about or cares. Unless you choose to come clean and explain yourself to soberminded people who come here for edification and discussion.
I usually just do a quick skim over the Smoking Man’s posts – but confess to enjoying how batshit angry they make James every other month. Just teasing you, James.
I don’t recognize the street in the picture. Oh wait, I do now! The people in the picture threw me off….
Or did they…
Same kind of line ups everywhere around Van.
One day you will change your tune….
“Justin Trudeau has inflated the bubble more in his first 6 months than Harper did in 10 years.”
I’d suggest that Trudy change his name from Junior to ‘Just Another Harper’ . But that would be an unfair slight on the real Harper who would have at least gone to Ft Mac without polling how his selfies would be received.
Smokey…smokey!
Big Thans for that sound link! Owe you ….silence.
#111 Smoking Man on 05.15.16 at 10:57 pm
Melinial men walk the streets in this sound.
https://youtu.be/u9Dg-g7t2l4
At #53: Smoking Man, you said, “We The North, Ha!!! what a joke, our Americans beating other Americans.” To that I respond with…. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGQaH3-LK54
Toronto: $650-700
wtf why does it keep going up??
Urban humans placated within debt cubicals seems like a win/win.
What am I missing?
#’s 15, 56, 63, 80, 101, 110 Freedom First fan club members
My fan club reminded me of 2 things today: #1) Like Bob Dylan says “Don’t wanna control nobody, don’t wanna be controlled by nobody”, and, 2) I like my steak rare.
And, Smoking Man. I think I’m in love with at least 3 women right now. Pretty sure it’s mutual. So many choices.Youngest is 36, but I’m leaning towards the 42 year old. I’m not leading anyone on. No promises. All plutonic right now. I am monogamous. Never cheat on a woman. It’s just not right.
#79 preet89 on 05.15.16 at 8:56 pm
It ticks me off when oldies make fun of electric cars too, just because some of you have polluted our water and air doesn’t mean that the young generation has to. This developer is thinking ahead by providing electric car charging. Sorry had to get that off my chest.
Ah, where does electricity come from? I mean besides the wall receptacle in your $600,000 condo. — Garth
….
It comes from flooding valleys, damming rivers, and processing toxic chemicals in India and China, where life is apparently expendable to the hip selfie crowd.
120 noodles79
“The other day l watched a t.v.program about sherpas and Mount Evererest.Climbing MtEverest has become such a popular to-do list item ,that there are litterally long line up’s to get to the summit.Some people pay up to $100,000 to have the privilege of waiting in line to potentially end up falling off a cliff. For some reason ,I couldnt help thinking about the line ups in front of REsales offices.”
Pretty good comparison.
Hey garth.
What happened to those 20,000 – 30,000 + unbuilt condos in Toronto you were so pessimistic about.
Are they all sold now ????
#73 Fed-up
Prices in London have always increased 3%/year historically. Toronto has not affected this region yet. But it will once we get a high speed train from GTA to London and beyond. Then expect the prices in London to be inflated from the Toronto influence. Then houses like that would be twice as much in less than 10 years.
“Asian” is a racial classification. It is not a nationality. You’re a dork. That’s apparently genetic. — Garth
So your assumption that they are not foreigners is based on what? Do you see them all holding Canadian passports over their heads?
Also, showing millennials lining up to purchase $500k condos is very different than asserting that the same buyers are also those buying $5mm mansions. If these
“locals” are borrowing from the bank of Mom to buy these small apartments, where will they get the money from to buy something that represents 40x their annual salaries?
DELETED
“You know how this ends, right?”
Let me guess…it will end with five more years of price increases?
@#140 family beagle
“It comes from flooding valleys, damming rivers, and processing toxic chemicals in……….”
******************************************
Mt Polley?
Brought to a open pit mine/tailing pond near you……thanks to our govt allowing industry to run unregulated because they contributed to the self same govts re-election campaign.
$140k election contribution buys the taxpayer a $1 billion dollar , multi year, “clean up” . Thanks Christy.
bought new 2540 sq ft house in KW last year at $201 per square foot. The cost included upgrades, lot premium, walkout, HST, land transfer taxes etc.
sold a 1280 square foot raised bungalow (finished basement), with net proceeds after RE fees at $267 per square foot. Sold for 10k over asking.
The $350k range was (and still is) red hot in KW. If you have something nice, it won’t last long. The is a lot of crap out there – the way some people live and take care of a house is scary.
#140 family beagle on 05.16.16 at 2:29 am
#79 preet89 on 05.15.16 at 8:56 pm
It ticks me off when oldies make fun of electric cars too, just because some of you have polluted our water and air doesn’t mean that the young generation has to. This developer is thinking ahead by providing electric car charging. Sorry had to get that off my chest.
Ah, where does electricity come from? I mean besides the wall receptacle in your $600,000 condo. — Garth
….
It comes from flooding valleys, damming rivers, and processing toxic chemicals in India and China, where life is apparently expendable to the hip selfie crowd.
…….
and don’t worry, preet89, we will dispose of your electric battery in a hole where you will never see it. Then, one day, your arrogant children will also ask naïve questions.
I wouldn’t say Chinese are fueling the housing bubble, but Asians (mostly Chinese…oh who am I kidding, they’re all Chinese! You can speak only Chinese at presentation centres in Richmond!) are over-represented in the real estate market. It’s a cultural thing. My sister from Hong Kong said to my brother, “Listen to your friend. He is after all a homeowner.” When my brother pointed out the said friend had never been a homeowner, she uttered, “Never? In that case…”
$50,000 invested in a professionally managed balanced portfolio 10 years ago, is now worth about $80-$85K. The last 10 years before that returned far less.
$50,000 down leveraging a $500K property has more than doubled that same $500K property in YVR and the GTA, with no crappy 2008, 2011, 2015 and so far, 2016 to deal with.
I’d like to think that pace cannot continue, but take a wild guess as to why these people are lining up to buy a box in the sky vs investing and staying liquid.
Way to go Owetario… it’s not like you have 300 billion debt already!! wow
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario-to-spend-7-billion-in-sweeping-climate-change-plan/article30029081/
This reminds me of the Beenie Babies frenzy years ago. It was justified of course as they were going to multiply in value because each was a limited edition and the whole world wanted them. The people who have held onto them must be worth a fortune now.
“Not too many Guangdong industrialists there, I reckon. But a whole lot of debtors to the Bank of Mom.”
I really don’t understand your stubborn determination to assign the entirety of the inflation of house prices to irresponsible Canadians (other than the obvious – it is the opposite of what the mainstream media is saying).
Everyone in that picture is Asian (yes that includes Koreans, Japanese, etc.) but they could all easily be making purchases using money from mainland China. And they could just as easily be a bunch of third-generation born-in-Canada fools spending mommy’s money. Why take either position?
Currently 45% of Vancouver’s population is of Asian origin. They are called “Canadians”. Get over it. — Garth
I chuckle how so many people love to point out how much money they have made in their house while they still own it. You don’t make any money in a house until you sell it. Until then, your house continues to bleed money.
As Garth has stated so many times, real estate is local. Ottawa has been in a buyers market now for over 2 years. All those people who think they made so much money are discovering they haven’t as their houses sit unsold on the market for months.
Buying a property is easy. Selling it is when you discover what playing the real estate roller coaster is really like.
#144 Skeptic on 05.16.16 at 8:15 am
“Asian” is a racial classification. It is not a nationality. You’re a dork. That’s apparently genetic. — Garth
So your assumption that they are not foreigners is based on what? Do you see them all holding Canadian passports over their heads?
Also, showing millennials lining up to purchase $500k condos is very different than asserting that the same buyers are also those buying $5mm mansions. If these
“locals” are borrowing from the bank of Mom to buy these small apartments, where will they get the money from to buy something that represents 40x their annual salaries?
—————————————————————————–
Lucid and rational questions. Sadly, there are no such answers.
Assuming people lined up on a sidewalk to buy a condo are not residents is ‘lucid’? You have lost all perspective. — Garth
Another article from the media (are they in cahoots with the big banks now?) regarding the faceless foreign cabal who they claim are buying up all the real estate and driving prices beyond the reach of poor, befuddled Canadian citizens.
What a crock :(
Benny Tal’s report says foreign buyer influence is overstated, and most of the activity is family-oriented. This report has been posted here ten times. — Garth
#155 OTTLocal on 05.16.16 at 10:14 am
I chuckle how so many people love to point out how much money they have made in their house while they still own it. You don’t make any money in a house until you sell it. Until then, your house continues to bleed money.
As Garth has stated so many times, real estate is local. Ottawa has been in a buyers market now for over 2 years. All those people who think they made so much money are discovering they haven’t as their houses sit unsold on the market for months.
Buying a property is easy. Selling it is when you discover what playing the real estate roller coaster is really like.
————————————————————————————-
Ottawa home owners have done just fine in the past 15 years. Prices have more than doubled since then. Average selling time on the market is about 75 days. Not so bad for sellers in a comparatively small market.
Assuming people lined up on a sidewalk to buy a condo are not residents is ‘lucid’? You have lost all perspective. — Garth
———————————————————————————
And assuming that most or all are residents, is?
Oh and that wasn’t the only lucid question in Skeptic’s original post.
Jealous or just Uninformed?
#155 OTTLocal on 05.16.16 at 10:14 am
I chuckle how so many people love to point out how much money they have made in their house while they still own it. You don’t make any money in a house until you sell it. Until then, your house continues to bleed money.
******************************************
Technically this my be correct since wealth is not cash money. But a house that has gone up in value has increased the owner’s net worth as measured in dollars.
Any asset COULD fall in value. But meanwhile, as of today, those who leveraged to the hilt and bought houses over most of the past 15 or more years have won the lottery. Particularly in Vancouver. Deal with that.
These homeowners have gained hundreds of thousands in net worth. If you missed out you can laugh or cry. But you can’t change what has happened.
Those who made reasoned arguments over the past decade that houses were likely to fall in price could not have been more wrong. They had facts and logic on their side, but the future simply unfolded differently than the facts suggested.
As a wise man said, Predictions are difficult, especially when they involve the future.
#3 ILoveCharts on 05.15.16 at 4:29 pm
Madness. I agree it’s crazy. You can still find value in BC but you have to look far and wide. I’m personally a big fan of ocean waterfront and it can be found at reasonable prices…”
Anyone know where the reasonable ocean waterfront in located in BC, other than Bellacoola….
What’s not to like about Calgary? Oil has grasped the bit in its teeth and is galloping. CREB advises that my shack is up 7.18% for the first half of May 16/15.
God’s country here in the Foothills.
Case for June rate hike by FED looks pretty strong:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-lacker-says-case-for-june-rate-hike-looks-pretty-strong-2016-05-16
Currently 45% of Vancouver’s population is of Asian origin. They are called “Canadians”. Get over it. — Garth
You completely misread my comment.
Looking at a picture of Asian people does not tell you if they are spending money smuggled out of China, or their own hard-earned $CAD. It offers no evidence either way, as it is just a photo of a bunch of people standing in a line. So why would you use this picture as evidence that inflated house prices are caused by the bank of Mom and Dad? It doesn’t make any sense and is just as ridiculous as asserting the opposite.
It’s clear as day to anyone who has been following the markets, or is involved in the industry, that foreign investment is increasing house prices in Vancouver and Toronto, and that a significant chunk of that foreign investment is from Asia. To date none of the studies/press releases/etc released to date has convinced me of the extent of foreign ownership in either City. Until a well-founded study is released I’m considering opinions pointing either way to be just a bunch of noise.
#11 paul on 05.15.16 at 5:08 pm
It’s the bank of Mom, Sold three house this week in the 905
all the down payments came from parents. Two co-signed.
__________________________________________
When our kiddies are done all their schooling and start looking for jobs, they’re going to have a sit down with Dad, a calculator, and a list of a few things that AREN’T going to happen.
#151 Fed-up on 05.16.16 at 9:08 am
You forgot the increased savings rate earned from renting, the moving and selling/buying costs, and property tax. But above all the last 5 years were great to be invested in the market. I think your numbers may be off a bit.
MF
#56 Freedom First on 05.15.16 at 7:32 pm
I have the best life in the whole world and it’s super to be me. I only listen to me. My gun’s bigger than yours. Mom’s letting me stay up late tonight. I have the best life ever! I really love cows.
____________________________________
It’s getting old.
Take a hike.
This comment section has gone overboard with crap postings lately — Smoking idiot, people posting as other regulars, there’s not a lot of good content any more.
I propose deleting the comment section, Garth. Or use a management tool so we can ignore the stupid threads.
Buying a property is easy. Selling it is when you discover what playing the real estate roller coaster is really like.
———————————
i think this logic is exactly right for the 604.
to make it valid just switch the ‘buying’ and ‘selling’ words.
selling in van is EASY EASY EASY.
the weekly news articles about the agony of the buyers must be backwards?
I’ve noticed an increasing nervousness and anger in posts by bubble deniers. You’d think that if all was hunky dory as they claim to be with the “hot” Canadian housing market that they would be the happiest bunch north of San Francisco.
Could it be that even these dim-witted, mouth-breathing financial illiterates sense that the higher the bubble goes the more catastrophic the fall will be?
Yes Garth, we do know how it ends.
It ends with those people in the line-up flipping their purchase contract to a sucker, who thought the bubble ending was imminent, for a $50k tax free profit (because they won’t report it…duh).
They cannot ‘flip’ without reporting. It is considered income and 100% taxable. But there’s a more likely outcome. — Garth
Garth, the asset bubbles of stock markets and real estate will continue to grow ….secular stagnation is chronic and money has no place to go. To much money is locked in saving accounts looking for return …
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-12/how-to-pull-the-world-economy-out-of-its-rut
Is this what Arnold Schwarzenagger meant when he referred to Vancouver as Hongcouver
Me thinks they are all just lining up for “clap” shots.
Heard it’s rampant in Vancouver.
#166 MF on 05.16.16 at 12:06 pm
#151 Fed-up on 05.16.16 at 9:08 am
You forgot the increased savings rate earned from renting, the moving and selling/buying costs, and property tax. But above all the last 5 years were great to be invested in the market. I think your numbers may be off a bit.
MF
———————————————————————————–
Which market? The one with 6% average returns or the one where your asset doubled in value by leveraging as little as 5% regardless of what you paid in property and land transfer taxes?
I’m definitely in favour of sanity when it comes to house prices and love liquidity but let’s not kid ourselves. We as sideline sitters, have done that long enough. We missed out, big time.
#171 dontcallmeshirley on 05.16.16 at 12:58 pm
Yes Garth, we do know how it ends.
It ends with those people in the line-up flipping their purchase contract to a sucker, who thought the bubble ending was imminent, for a $50k tax free profit (because they won’t report it…duh).
They cannot ‘flip’ without reporting. It is considered income and 100% taxable. But there’s a more likely outcome. — Garth
—————————————————————————–
But it is happening all the time Sir Garth. Ross Kay on BNN earlier stating just that. Canada has scandalously lax standards when it comes to reporting and went as far as calling Vancouver and Toronto’s markets, “a foreign capital ponzi scheme”. He confirms that there is simply not enough capital among locals to support these price gains.
But then again who knows…
#88 Ronaldo on 05.15.16 at 9:18 pm
I just calculated for the heck of it what the bathroom in one of those 446 s.f. condos would be worth and it came out to $54,864. How nutso is that?
_____________________________
I think there should be some kind of Virtual Reality mind altering device developed that can emulate the real life emotion that would accompany the decision to buy a floating walk-in closet for one half Million Dollars – after the buzz wears off and the 25 year/3K/month grind begins.
Use it in schools
At least with a real house, I can go outside, mow the lawn, do a little trimming, and feel happy about it all again for a day or two.
My fav quote from the website:
“ONLY 200 WILL CALL 8X HOME. YOU CANNOT DUPLICATE THIS ONE.”
I guess they forgot the meaning of the word duplicate? Wouldn’t a 200 unit building mean they “duplicated this one” 199 times?
#33 Bond Junkie on 05.15.16 at 5:56 pm
“I’m much better off earning 95k, attending all concerts and soccer practices and playing with my kids with 100% vitality and focus on the weekends.”
______________
You could be trolling, but I’ll reply anyway.
If you want to down-size your job to 95K, don’t expect that you won’t have to work after hours and weekends for “that much” money. If 95K at your office is straight 9-5, no hassle not stress, give me the 411, cuz I’d like that cushy spot.
To me it’s a given that capital flight from first world and emerging nations is an important driver of real estate inflation in all major urban markets in Canada. I couldn’t care less if the buyers actually own or not a Canadian passport. Anyone who denies this is in my opinion delusional.
I’m also convinced that the condominium industry is severely infested by organized crime and is routinely used for money laundering scheme, big and small.
Canada is quickly becoming a very strange place. Its excellent reputation and perceived stability make it a very attractive place to invest and park capital yet the lack of transparency, inadequate regulations and extremely weak judiciary branch make it an ideal target for shady deals and entities of all kinds.
None of this is new of course, but with time it has grown into a sizeable portion of the economy.
There is something very rotten in the kingdom of maple syrup!
This is getting a LOT of comments over at the Corpse website.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-home-prices-foreign-buyer-economy-1.3580780
Ah, where does electricity come from? I mean besides the wall receptacle in your $600,000 condo. — Garth
There are numerous studies proving that it’s better for the environment to generate electricity en masse than to use individual engines in each vehicle. Additionally when it comes to human health power plants are far away from city centres and residential areas so the pollutants they do produce aren’t deposited as close to the air you breath. Preventing things such as smog. This kind of ignorance is anti-scientific scaremongering by people with a pro-oil agenda
#179 Mixed Bag
«If 95K at your office is straight 9-5, no hassle not stress, give me the 411, cuz I’d like that cushy spot.»
You’d be suprised how many 35 hour week public service jobs pay 100K+ (plus benefits, pension and lifetime security)
Thank You, SM & NoName. I take the Brother In Law for his 40th to Niagara falls. Will check out Casino,Wine tour. I would like to go Fishing in Lake Ontario. However time is not permitting. Think the Welland Canal Will be a good visit. Last time I was in Southern Ontario, +35c/ Super Humid. Don’t know how you adjust to the hot weather. That is why everyone has a swimming pool in there back yard.
PB43
#23 I remember 30 years ago you could have bought a Loft apt. in Yaletown for $80k………yeeks.
—————————————————————–
East Van detached lot was $85k 30 years ago, that lot 33×100 would sell over one million today…. over 8.6% return per year… beats condo anytime
#184 Prairieboy43 on 05.16.16 at 3:15 pm
Thank You, SM & NoName. I take the Brother In Law for his 40th to Niagara falls. Will check out Casino,Wine tour. I would like to go Fishing in Lake Ontario. However time is not permitting. Think the Welland Canal Will be a good visit. Last time I was in Southern Ontario, +35c/ Super Humid. Don’t know how you adjust to the hot weather. That is why everyone has a swimming pool in there back yard.
PB43
….
If you stay on canadian side might I recommend a great place with live entertainment. It’s on Lundys Lane.
It’s called The Sundowner.
#168 dm in c on 05.16.16 at 12:39 pm
This comment section has gone overboard with crap postings lately — Smoking idiot, people posting as other regulars, there’s not a lot of good content any more.
I propose deleting the comment section, Garth. Or use a management tool so we can ignore the stupid threads.
…………………………………………………………………..
Well it always starts off great with Garth’s rather astute observations on the market and market trends. Then all goes to shit as soon Smoking Turd and a few others open their yappers going off on a space cadet ride along with Smoking Mans vision quest for a real woman in his life. We actually believe he is a fifty year old virgin who lives with his mother and her cats in the basement of a run-down hoarder’s home.
#186 Smoking Man on 05.16.16 at 3:37 pm
#184 Prairieboy43 on 05.16.16 at 3:15 pm
Thank You, SM & NoName. I take the Brother In Law for his 40th to Niagara falls. Will check out Casino,Wine tour. I would like to go Fishing in Lake Ontario. However time is not permitting. Think the Welland Canal Will be a good visit. Last time I was in Southern Ontario, +35c/ Super Humid. Don’t know how you adjust to the hot weather. That is why everyone has a swimming pool in there back yard.
PB43
………………………………
If you stay on canadian side might I recommend a great place with live entertainment. It’s on Lundys Lane.
It’s called The Sundowner.
………………………………………………………………….
#168 dm in c on 05.16.16 at 12:39 pm
This comment section has gone overboard with crap postings lately — Smoking idiot, people posting as other regulars, there’s not a lot of good content any more.
I propose deleting the comment section, Garth. Or use a management tool so we can ignore the stupid threads.
………………………….
Case in point above DM in C! Now Smoking Man is running a sleazy tourist scam on this blog.
Not any longer. — Garth
#182 Frank on 05.16.16 at 3:03 pm
“…Additionally when it comes to human health power plants are far away from city centres and residential areas so the pollutants they do produce aren’t deposited as close to the air you breath…”
Almost choked on a mouthful of snowy owl reading that. Meanwhile in sports…
“This kind of ignorance is anti-scientific scaremongering by people with a pro-oil agenda”
———————————
I am pro oil. I have practically zero investment in the oil industry and I certainly am not employed there, but my hat goes off to those who are.
Oil is currently the only cheap, plentiful and reliable source of energy in the world today. Until we overcome out fear of nuclear energy (perhaps by 2050) it will remain that way.
When government subsidized green energy is forced on a population there is fortunately always oil standing by to do the necessary heavy lifting when cost, reliability and scarcity rear their heads in the ‘toy technology’ department (as they always do).
If we are raping the earth, (and really, we are not) it is to mine rare elements for the manufacture of inefficient batteries under the false flag of green progress. That mess exists mostly in third world countries and ignored by the self-righteous west.
I love mother nature but she is completely indifferent to me. She’d have swatted me like a fly long ago had not millions of years of evolution given my species the brains and techniques to shield shield ourselves form her perpetual bad temper.
Get used to oil for the rest of our lives. Then it will be nuclear energy for our progeny. The other stuff is a largely self-congratulatory side show. That’s the world mother nature made for us. I’m eternally thankful she left us something useful to work with.
work from home?
Nehamas writes further:
“Hundreds of shell companies — many of them registered in the British Virgin Islands and other jurisdictions that profit by allowing corporate owners to hide their names — can be traced back to Santini’s condo.”
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article69249277.html
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article69249657.html
#189 family beagle on 05.16.16 at 4:03 pm
#182 Frank on 05.16.16 at 3:03 pm
“…Additionally when it comes to human health power plants are far away from city centres and residential areas so the pollutants they do produce aren’t deposited as close to the air you breath…”
Almost choked on a mouthful of snowy owl reading that. Meanwhile in sports…
—-
In van.. they only breath rarefied air while doing yoga on a bridge.
Laying here on my bed underneath the fan in 35 degrees in Rio de Janeiro……..thinking about the last 3 weeks I’ve spent in Brasil on holidays.
Found out that we’ve got to break the bathroom wall in our condo to change the water pipes…….might as well go all in and redo the entire thing. Uuuuuuggghhhh……some times I feel for homeowners.
Just got back from a week at a 5 star luxury resort in Guarajuba…….spent $1K CAD for me and the better half to eat and drink all the imported booze and gourmet food we could handle while sitting by the pool or in our suite overlooking the ocean. It makes you think……
Why not live in resorts or hotels instead of real estate you own ?
#183 pBrasseur on 05.16.16 at 3:06 pm
#179 Mixed Bag
«If 95K at your office is straight 9-5, no hassle not stress, give me the 411, cuz I’d like that cushy spot.»
You’d be suprised how many 35 hour week public service jobs pay 100K+ (plus benefits, pension and lifetime security)
—————
Yes, I would be. Time to lift my nose from the grindstone.
Garth: “First “8x On The Park” is 100% aimed at Millennials.”
With a name like “8x On The Park”, there’s only one type of investor that they are aiming at, and it’s not Millenials, Garth. It’s the same reason that Simon Fraser University changed their address to 8888 University Drive…just sayin’.
Sad the way you’re obsessed. So many reasons to dislike Vancouver lately. — Garth
Most Internet boards are a lot like panning for gold.
A lot of work for some dust but the occasional nugget makes that all worthwhile.
But, as posters above have pointed out the nuggets are getting few and far between.
Balanced and diversified applies to more than a portfolio, those who troll, who look to fight with another (are you reading crowdedelevator?) who are here for self aggrandizement only need to know that this is Garth’s domain, his turf.
It can only be so long before he becomes tired of all the editing, deleting and etc and does something….
I came here as a soon to be unable to continue working in the regular sense having fallen off to many motorcycles and rolled too many Jeeps in my youth, looking for those nuggets.
Trouble is I’m not a 1%, not even on the Internet. We, in retirement, won’t be killing lions in Africa but neither will we be buying our meat out of the 50% off bin at Superstore. Sort of in the middle. A 30% maybe? I dunno…I keep track by how many hugs I get, not how much more I have or if I can reference my junk in an online financial forum. Call me crazy, eh?
So, I can use a nugget here or there. I guess while I wait I’ll just have to put up with the flakes.
Hi Garth, we have the current debt ratio at 1.65. How much debt can the Canadians continue to accumulate until this is unsustainable? I think that’s the key question to know when the prices are going to become stable and start to go down.
#23 I remember 30 years ago you could have bought a Loft apt. in Yaletown for $80k………yeeks.
—————————————————————–
East Van detached lot was $85k 30 years ago, that lot 33×100 would sell over one million today…. over 8.6% return per year… beats condo anytime
Try 1.5 to 1.8 million for the east van detached.
#188 Captain Obvious on 05.16.16 at 3:48 pm
No sence of humor eh. Why so sensitive. Eod comments. No one realy reads em.
Lighten up.
I love mother nature but she is completely indifferent to me. She’d have swatted me like a fly long ago had not millions of years of evolution given my species the brains and techniques to shield shield ourselves form her perpetual bad temper.
————-
yes yes yes
————-
Get used to oil for the rest of our lives. Then it will be nuclear energy for our progeny. The other stuff is a largely self-congratulatory side show. That’s the world mother nature made for us. I’m eternally thankful she left us something useful to work with.
———–
yes yes yes.
#195 Heisenberg on 05.16.16 at 4:32 pm
Garth: “First “8x On The Park” is 100% aimed at Millennials.”
With a name like “8x On The Park”, there’s only one type of investor that they are aiming at…
—————————–
8x is the projected 10 yr appreciation on the units!
“internalizers”
Exclusive: U.S. investigates market-making operations of Citadel, KCG
NEW YORK | By Charles Levinson
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-probe-exclusive-idUSKCN0Y11CJ
====
http://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/04/citadels-ken-griffin-poster-child-for-americans-anger-in-this-election/
-l has been fined and/or sanctioned for market misconduct 26 times according to Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) records
http://wallstreetonparade.com/2014/08/citadels-dark-pool-sec-draws-a-dark-curtain-around-its-operations/
AIG Citadel 0.2
http://wallstreetonparade.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AIG-Counterparty-List.pd
DR. BEN BERNANKE TO SERVE AS A SENIOR ADVISOR TO CITADEL
CHICAGO, April 16, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/citadel-securities-to-shut-down-apogee-dark-pool-in-u-s-1427465316
@ 161 water doggiez
As you go up island it gets more and more reasonable. At some point, the places get too remote.
That said, Comox Valley is a great community with a reasonable level of economic diversity thanks to the air force base, ski resort, college, farming, etc.
For the price of a condo in Vancouver, you can buy a fixer-upper on a large lot with walk on waterfront just minutes south of the main shopping area in Courtenay.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/15636796/4612-KILMARNOCK-DRIVE-COURTENAY-British-Columbia-V9N9S8-Z2-Courtenay-South
Deals are even better in Campbell River but there are some trade-offs since that community was more economically reliant on the pulp mill that shut down.
You probably don’t want to go further north than that.
#163-Cramar – “Case for June rate hike by FED looks pretty strong”
Until we get to June.
#193 Keith in Calgary on 05.16.16 at 4:22 pm
Just got back from a week at a 5 star luxury resort in Guarajuba…….spent $1K CAD for me and the better half to eat and drink all the imported booze and gourmet food we could handle while sitting by the pool or in our suite overlooking the ocean. It makes you think……
Why not live in resorts or hotels instead of real estate you own ?
…
Ah, the cleverest 1%. Throw in a business meeting. I’ve met amazing contacts who were taking a break in the off season. I’ve also known a few big wheels who weren’t too proud to stay at motels.
8x on the Park? That would be the condo development that is part of the dodgy land swap deal involving cityhall. It went all the way to the Supreme Court of Canada after the BC Supreme Court halted the development.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/emery-barnes-park-land-swap-with-developer-city-of-vancouver-thrown-out-by-courts-1.2934183
http://www.newyaletown.ca/2015/11/tell-the-city-you-are-still-opposed-to-a-tower-on-emery-barnes-park/
Nice!
“They are called ‘Canadians.’ Get over it. — Garth”
I see this Garth response every time there’s an Asian reference in the comments. I think one of the real questions being asked here is: are the dollars Canadian? Did these Canadians of Asian descent work in Canada at ordinary jobs and make Canadian dollars being used bid up these properties? Yes or no. It’s a legitimate question–but there’s no answer. “Buyers are mostly local” does not answer this question, since you can fill out some citizenship papers and get cheques in the mail and suddenly you’re “local.” The question is always avoided and the accusations of racism are used as a filibuster.
Saying “they’re Canadians” is a statement about paperwork. Scribbling on some pages in a one-time interaction with the rest of society doesn’t mean anything, and this arbitrary distinction has nothing to do with the point. Just like skin colour in and of itself has nothing to do with the point, but is a convenient way to rebuff any observation that correlates with it.
RE: “Why would any Millennial pay $1,100 for a foot of a condo when that will rent an entire place for three weeks?”
Answer: because they’re not.
(and now everyone wants me to elaborate)…..well, they’re not paying $1,100.00 per square foot. They’re paying a fraction of that. If they’re putting 5% down on a $509,900 446 square foot “studio” condo, they’re paying $57.16 per square foot. Then they’re working full time and making monthly payments.
What people don’t see here is that the younger generation does not believe in, or understand “structural debt”. Back when the older folks were these people’s age, all we heard about were “structural deficits”, “long term debt” and the like, and the idea was always to get out of debt, avoid having a structural deficit (ie, a situation where a person always spends more than they earn and incurs more new debt each month with no hope of ever paying it back) and try to own things.
That was back in the 80s, when interest rates were double digits and it was possible to pay cash for everything, including houses.
The situation today is vastly different. It is likely that it will never again be possible, at least in major Canadian urban centres like Vancouver and Toronto, for the vast majority of persons to pay cash for a house. It is likely that about 1/2 to 1/3 of us will live our lives in a situation of structural deficit, which we are not aware of (ie, spending more than we earn each month and accumulating debt). This is due mostly to the ability to borrow money from your house with additional mortgaging, as the house’s value goes up, meaning that you actually do spend more than you earn each month and accumulate debt, while believing that you are making money.
The bottom line is that the majority of Canadian home owners, do not consider a mortgage to be a debt, do not fore see a time when they will ever have paid off their mortgage, and view purchasing a house as a decision to be made based on how much money you can qualify to borrow, rather than how much money you actually have. Most Canadians, faced with a situation where they somehow managed to pay off their mortgage, would immediately start looking for a better house, in a nicer neighbourhood, and would determine what they could afford based on how much they could borrow and what the monthly payments would be.
We have gotten used to living on top of a frozen “debt lake” and we expect interest rates will never change. Whether rates could ever change is an open question, as our governments have also gotten used to functioning in a situation of structural deficit, and never are in a situation where they can pay all of their bills without borrowing. It has become comical to watch the USA “raise their debt ceiling” each year, and go further into the red. Ontario would have to have a billion dollar surplus for hundreds of years, to pay off all our debt. We also live in a structural deficit situation, spending more than we earn in tax collection in this Province each and every year. Raise interest rates, even a fraction, and first world countries around the developed world start triggering debt covenants and losing their credit ratings. It happens very quickly.
So what do we do? Where did all this cheap money come from? Why are we in a situation where it appears likely that we will never, in our lifetimes and even in the lifetimes of our great grandchildren, ever be able to pay it back?
Why do the governments of developed countries run their finances like bankrupt corporations, borrowing more each year and hoping for low rates and patient creditors, always, always, always spending more than they collect in taxes. Being set up structurally in a way that they could not possibly function if they had to balance their budgets.
Why do we all imitate our governments and borrow with reckless abandon, as they do?
Would anyone in Canada be able to afford a house, if interest rates were suddenly, say, 20%?
Lots of interesting questions to think about.
Oh, and as an addendum to my long comment above, consider this:
House prices are not rising. They have not risen in a long time. They are actually quite cheap and affordable.
We are in a situation of hyper inflation, where our money purchases goods of increasingly poor quality, for increasingly large sums (consider automobiles, the endless consumer electronic waste that flows through our hands into landfills around the world), the lifespan of a computer or a TV can be measured in months rather than years, we need a new cell phone every six weeks, our money buys increasingly smaller quantities of garbage. Look for real food in your grocery store. It is freaking expensive. Buy a car that will last more than six years before it rusts out and the engine breaks down. They cost a fortune.
Buy a house…………………anywhere.
Low interest rates, free money, ever escalating government and private debt. Real estate prices that look like they are going through the stratosphere.
Hyper inflation, folks, that’s where we are right now. Houses are not overpriced. Currency is worthless.
“I see this Garth response every time there’s an Asian reference in the comments. I think one of the real questions being asked here is: are the dollars Canadian? Did these Canadians of Asian descent work in Canada at ordinary jobs and make Canadian dollars being used bid up these properties? Yes or no. It’s a legitimate question–but there’s no answer. “Buyers are mostly local” does not answer this question, since you can fill out some citizenship papers and get cheques in the mail and suddenly you’re “local.” The question is always avoided and the accusations of racism are used as a filibuster.”
Well said, and additionally, ownership of land SHOULD relate to the extent its worked – i.e. the Lockean version of “property rights” that suggests tilling the fields or working the lands lends itself to ownership. Occupancy is how its modernly understood.
Vacant houses via offshore money is in every sense, antithetical to the commonly understood theory of property rights, since the Enlightenment anyway.
The symbols of government failure were strong with one of Canada’s business leaders selling a top property in the city to a foreign “student”
Only a poorly educated person would suggest that is “healthy” as really, claims to property, in a healthy system, are related to the extent goods and services are provisioned, and the corresponding reward.