Combustible

FIRE 2 modified

The flames ripping through Fort Mac this week seem symbolic. What was once the nation’s pound-for-pound most ridiculously expensive real estate market is now smouldering – and in absolutely the wrong way. What a poignant reminder for everyone how all recent assumptions can be turned on their head.

All in all, it’s a bad week. The dollar has tanked over the last two days, after gloriously touching 80 cents US. Oil has retreated again, adding insult to northern Alberta’s injury. Isolationist, rip-up-NAFTA, America-first politician Donald Trump has emerged as a serious contender for the US presidency. Global growth is in doubt after crappy economic data out of Europe and China. Australia – a lot like Canada – is slagging so much they had to cut interest rates two days ago.

Worst, our trade numbers really, really suck.

In March we imported $3.4 billion more than we sold – which is a record. Said Scotia economist Derek Holt: “This is simply a horrible report.” He’s right. We shipped the smallest amount to the States since way back in 1993 – twenty-three years ago, during a bad recession. By the way, exports slumped the month before, too, and are down in 10 of 11 major categories. If Canada were a business, we’d be in a cash flow crisis and burning through the line of credit. Which, of course, we are. The federal deficit this year will probably hit $30 billion – and there’s not even an economic crisis.

This is not to bum you out. But rather to provide some context for the bizarre behaviour a lot of Canadians are now engaged in. The amount of stuff we sell to the Americans is the blood in our national arteries. If the US recovery slows (which it has in the last quarter) or a protectionist weirdo assumes office (now closer than ever), this impacts our entire economy. Markets know that, so the dollar has slipped substantially over the past few days. Meanwhile slowing global growth means dipping commodity prices, which also wounds a rocks-and-trees kinda place like Canada.

Against this backdrop, the economic clouds, the political headwinds and the towers of smoke over oil country, the average property in Vancouver rose in benchmark price to $1.4 million. In one year that’s a 30.1% advance – about 15 times the rate of inflation and twenty times the average growth in wages. It also means the average house costs 19 times what the average Vancouver family earns. In terms of global unaffordability, that’s off the chart.

Sales are running 40% above the 10-year average, mortgage originations are at a record level and there’s still no evidence that more than a minority of trades – estimated at 5% – involve offshore buyers. What’s happened in YVR is simple to explain. It’s a mania. A social obsession. Higher prices beget higher prices, once everybody expects them to go higher still. The level of risk now associated with Vancouver and entire Lower Mainland market is akin to those endless miles of tinder-dry trees waiting to combust in poor Alberta.

But the insanity does not stop there. The GTA and much of southern Ontario is living through the same suspension of disbelief – a time in which most people come to believe the unbelievable, to sacrifice realism and embrace a fad. Some of us have seen it before, with houses in the Eighties or dot-coms in the late Nineties – a widespread conviction it’s different this time, that a new normal’s descended. And it never happens.

Last month more houses sold in Toronto (12,085) than any April before. The average selling price rose 16%. The average detached house in 416 now trades for $1,257,958, or 19% more than a year ago. This is insanity. Prices are not supported by economic fundamentals, which means they’re being propped up on a tower of debt and hubris.

A week or two ago I mentioned having bought a geriatric pile of bricks north of Toronto which I restored into a country general store and ice cream pleasure dome. It opened this past weekend. But here’s the point. The operation requires about eight employees, and the worry was finding that many people with relevant experience in a semi-rural setting full of country estates and Range Rovers willing to toil for twelve or thirteen bucks an hour. Well, dozens of resumes poured in and there’s now a roster of sixteen workers with a dozen others on call, and as many who haven’t yet been contacted – all of them qualified. It seemed correct to spread hours and shifts around, since there’s obviously a need for work in the community (one of the GTA’s wealthier ones).

No fire here yet. No flames, incinerating our assumptions. But there’s more than a whiff of smoke.

How to help the folks in Fort Mac

YMMfire.ca – this site aims to help pair Albertans able to open their homes, rental properties, recreational properties, and other available space to people in need of somewhere to stay.

The Red Cross – this site links you to the Alberta Fires Appeal, where you can donate directly to assist Fort Mac fire refugees.

Edmonton Emergency Relief – a group of people dedicated to serving victims of fire and disaster by helping them with the basic supplies, such as household necessities, and furniture. All services are provided at no cost to the people in need.

Pray for Fort McMurray – a Facebook-hosted site connecting people who want to give with those who need to receive. You may donate here as well.

196 comments ↓

#1 God Emperor Trump on 05.04.16 at 7:00 pm

“Donald Trump is a clown”

“Trump is a joke”

“He has no chance”

“Hillary will crush him in the electoral college”

Said nervous man for the 7th time…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiJYGV8faZw

#2 The Trumpening on 05.04.16 at 7:04 pm

Frist. Bill Frist.

#3 ILoveCharts on 05.04.16 at 7:06 pm

Things seem to be getting worst in Fort Mac this afternoon. It’s all just stuff. Health and family are all that really matters.

#4 Brian Ripley on 05.04.16 at 7:06 pm

Fort Mac is not the only scorching Canadian city.

Average Vancouver housing prices hit another record scorching hat trick on a sales breakout that remains well above the seasonal channel. Buyer mania continues to bid up anything that poses as shelter as it rides the 40 month momentum wave of single family dwelling prices that have been increasing at a 1.4% clip per month.

Vancouver SFD prices are now in another doubling territory since the April 2008 high.

Chart: http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

Toronto hat tricked as well: http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

#5 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 05.04.16 at 7:12 pm

hot and dry out here also
1988 revisited … water table dropped 3 foot

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.16 at 7:13 pm

Ft Mac in flames…..
“The Donald” thinks he can actually win the White House…..
Dilma slithers one step closer to impeachment….

A trifecta of craziness.

#7 For those about to flop... on 05.04.16 at 7:15 pm

A guy asked me at work today if I saw the wildfires on the news last night.

I said yeah, and I’ve got a buddy I’m worried about.

His English isn’t the best so I gave up trying to explain who WULLY is ,but I hope your o.k brother.

I also just watched a report where two cars collided and set off another fire and supposedly there is a fatality.

No punchline tonight…

M41BC

#8 TRUMP on 05.04.16 at 7:17 pm

F-L-E-X !!!!

#9 Doug t on 05.04.16 at 7:18 pm

China – they spent the last 30 years trying to replicate Amerikan capitalism in a culture that has no idea how to really grasp the concept – no ingenuity, no inventiveness and no entrepreneurial spirit. It didn’t work – now the bubble in commodities has popped. And the shadow banking system within is starting to unravel- corruption was aliVe and well all those 30 years and is coming home to roost.
Strap in folks things will continue to be bumpy

#10 Shawn on 05.04.16 at 7:19 pm

Be Careful When Betting Against the House

Imagine a house represents the benefit of a place to live which has a positive yearly value stretching out for tens even a hundred years. (It does, even after annual costs.)

Now imagine what happens to the value of any stream of cash or value as the discount or interest rate approaches zero.

That’s right, the calculated value of the stream of value approaches infinity.

For example, Warren Buffett said this past weekend that if people really believed that these near-zero interest rates would last for a long time then “The DOW would be at 100,000”.

Comprehend it.

I’m not sayin’… I’m just sayin’…

Remember Rule Number 1: “Always assume Buffet is correct”

and Rule Number 2: “Don’t forget rule number 1”

#11 Lee on 05.04.16 at 7:21 pm

Doesn’t Caledon only have like 80 residents? Everyone must have applied.

#12 Randy on 05.04.16 at 7:23 pm

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153950034266311&set=a.52987506310.88619.531306310&type=3&theater
Updated picture Garth

#13 cramar on 05.04.16 at 7:27 pm

Bill Gross says helicopter money (QE) is coming from central banks including the FED. Is he becoming an alarmist or just a realist? Time will tell.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/04/investing/bill-gross-helicopter-money-qe-robots/index.html

#14 steerage steward on 05.04.16 at 7:30 pm

Have a friend that’s been in insurance for years and he says he’s never seen this amount of fire damaged truck nutz before.

#15 condo guy on 05.04.16 at 7:34 pm

here is an example of the insanity in yvr

we are looking for a 2 bedrooms condo. we found a nice 875 square foot condo in burnaby/brentwood assessed at 400k and listed for 468.

we offered 520k. the condo had 20 offers and sold for 600k.

welcome to vancouver

#16 Kelowna on 05.04.16 at 7:38 pm

We need to take a minute to remember what is really important in this post! Financial up and downs and “The “Donald” are totally irrelevant compared to losing your home as many are in Fort Mac. Always good to keep perspective on what is really important!

#17 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 05.04.16 at 7:38 pm

In March we imported $3.4 billion more than we sold – which is a record. Said Scotia economist Derek Holt: “This is simply a horrible report.”

as I predicted and have maintained for a long time: Canada’s days as a net exporter are long behind us

#18 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 05.04.16 at 7:43 pm

Vancouver rose in benchmark price to $1.4 million. In one year that’s a 30.1% advance…But the insanity does not stop there. The GTA and much of southern Ontario is living through the same suspension of disbelief

as I’ve also said before. real estate prices in YVR and YYZ continue to rise against all reason. these massive jumps are like the spasmodic contractions of the heart before a massive infarc

#19 tundra pete on 05.04.16 at 7:43 pm

Prayers to all those in Ft. Mac. That is a horrible situation I wish to never have to endure. To hear of no deaths or injury is a definite bonus.

As for all the greater fools paying way too much for housing, cool, thanks for the show. We will surely be cursing you out in a few months when CMHC goes belly up and T2 tries to apologize saying it was unavoidable and no one could have seen it coming. He will also elaborate on the taxpayer funded bail out and how it will be snuck into future deficits.

The only entertainment will be when Trump and Hillary duke it out in the fall unless the justice dept. indicts her before Nov. Not likely as this behaviour is expected of politicians. Trump will certainly be baiting the race wars prior to that to make it most interesting.

#20 Vancouver Troy on 05.04.16 at 7:44 pm

Recently watching the other side burn the American flag and hold up signs saying “make America Mexico again” Trump doesn’t look so crazy to me anymore.

#21 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 05.04.16 at 7:44 pm

How to help the folks in Fort Mac…

thanks for doing this Gartho. you’re an angel

#22 Smoking Man on 05.04.16 at 7:49 pm

Back in OCT when I called Trump will win right after he called on banning Muslims without proper vetting. MSM reported only the banning with no mention of vetting. I called it right here. Everyone and there brother said he didn’t stand a chance after that. Well Looks like he does.

Last week I called a bottom on Long USDCAD bet. My post from April 25 when it was at 1.255
“#41 Smoking Man on 04.28.16 at 8:00 pm
Usdcad I sense a bottom. Don’t total trust my crystal ball since the fever. But I’m going to put on a small bet and see what happens.”

I’m up quite a bit. First bet in a while. Crude was climbing and so was USDCAD. So looks like a serious trend correction.

In Jan we had amazing exports USDCAD was at 1.45 It’s dropped a lot which killed exports.
BOC rate cut coming soon, print this out and put it on your fridge.

The bright side to fort mac, the fire is taking a ton of inventory out of the real estate market. Supply and Demand bitches. 99% will have insurance for the rebuild. So it’s a bit of a win for owners. They just don’t know it yet.

Smoking Man.
The non drinking, and part time smoking Nectonite.

#23 Pete on 05.04.16 at 7:52 pm

This is a seriously effed-up time, with lots of change waiting in the wings…..love em or not, our energy must be positive for the folks out west being tested right now. Good for you Garth for being human, and more than just a money hunter. It’s really important to love your neighbor, and do what you can to help them through life’s challenges.

I’m not surprised that you have an overflowing basket of resumes for the starter jobs you can offer: yes, there’s lots of wealth to be found in some areas (I’m in one of them), but the irony is that after a certain point, rich people don’t spend much more money than poor people to get through the basics of life. Rich people are great, love em, don’t feel ill toward them, but that doesn’t change the fact that their contribution to the day to day economy is not nearly as significant as some like to believe. After about $100k, it seems, there’s little more being spent in an ongoing basis. Sure, every once in a while a pool gets put in, or the driveway gets heated interlock, but in terms of daily spend, it just doesn’t translate into the same engine of cash flow that greater numbers of less well off folks provide to local economies. I live in a town over run by money at certain times of the year, but the local economy is withering. Trickle down is not working. To all out there with high net worthy: spend it. You can’t take it with you, and your kids don’t need to become useless duds by giving them s free pass. Spend it like there’s no tomorrow, ’cause you never know when your number is going to get called.

#24 Grey Dog on 05.04.16 at 7:56 pm

WUL Glad to hear you are safe.

Donating to Red Cross and prayers for Fort Mac. I cannot imagine the scope of all that needs to be be done immediately and overcome in the future.

#25 james on 05.04.16 at 7:59 pm

“Some of us have seen it before, with houses in the Eighties or dot-coms in the late Nineties”

The funny thing is that the young dolts coming out of school in Canada have never seen a mania and crash together. They have only seen the good times.

I talked to a couple of guys at a UofT career fair a couple of years back. One asked how he could work in Silicon Valley. Upon learning he was second year, I told him that he is probably too late. By the time he graduates, the recent bubble in tech companies will have deflated. He looked at me like I was a space alien. Obviously it is not something his parents had warned him about, and not something he had researched.

Lo and behold:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/this-tech-bubble-is-bursting-1462161662

San Fran housing posted its first decline in quite a while. Vancouver will follow, and it is much worse there due to low salaries and high living costs (e.g., consumer goods, gasoline, etc).

#26 For those about to flop... on 05.04.16 at 7:59 pm

#22 Smoking Man on 05.04.16 at 7:49 pm
Back in OCT when I called Trump will win right after he called on banning Muslims without proper vetting. MSM reported only the banning with no mention of vetting. I called it right here. Everyone and there brother said he didn’t stand a chance after that. Well Looks like he does.

Last week I called a bottom on Long USDCAD bet. My post from April 25 when it was at 1.255
“#41 Smoking Man on 04.28.16 at 8:00 pm
Usdcad I sense a bottom. Don’t total trust my crystal ball since the fever. But I’m going to put on a small bet and see what happens.”

I’m up quite a bit. First bet in a while. Crude was climbing and so was USDCAD. So looks like a serious trend correction.

In Jan we had amazing exports USDCAD was at 1.45 It’s dropped a lot which killed exports.
BOC rate cut coming soon, print this out and put it on your fridge.

The bright side to fort mac, the fire is taking a ton of inventory out of the real estate market. Supply and Demand bitches. 99% will have insurance for the rebuild. So it’s a bit of a win for owners. They just don’t know it yet.

Smoking Man.
The non drinking, and part time smoking Nectonite.

////////////////////////////////////

Good to see you are still a full time tool…

M41BC

#27 Cici on 05.04.16 at 8:03 pm

Good job Garth.

#28 Pete on 05.04.16 at 8:03 pm

Smoky, you are the man. I hope you can find a new pathway to the insights that the chemicals have given you….they’re fun and enjoyable, but the downsides can be a bitch.

Glad you’re back, keep posting

#29 Eyeguy on 05.04.16 at 8:05 pm

Thanks Garth for identifying the ways we can help in Fort Mac.

#30 WUL on 05.04.16 at 8:07 pm

Thank you Garth. Thank you Dogs. I have had it so good compared to 10s of thousands of people who were chased from their homes in the Mac yesterday.

Please, please people, prepare a personal emergency plan regardless of your circumstances and family circumstances. Both for shelter-in-place and evacuation. Run drills with your kids. Lots of terrible dangers can arise in the blink of an eye as I went through yesterday.

Lots of resources on the web.

Hey FLOP. I am lucky and fine. Tired now pal. Anxious to see what life brings next, Pal.

#31 waiting on the westcoast on 05.04.16 at 8:11 pm

#20 Vancouver Troy on 05.04.16 at 7:44 pm says… “Recently watching the other side burn the American flag and hold up signs saying “make America Mexico again” Trump doesn’t look so crazy to me anymore.”

You should read a book called the next 100 years by one of the founders of Stratfor. In it, he describes a future scenario where Mexico challenges the US. The Latino population in many southwestern States have allegiances to both countries and Mexico has great demos (lots of youth being produced) to sustain a growth oriented economy. Not saying it will happen but it is interesting to see what forces affect geopolitics.

#32 pathcontrolmonk on 05.04.16 at 8:17 pm

I used to think RE prices were funny, now they are frightening. I just saw a tear down in Richmond that I looked at 3 or 4 years ago when it was $800k, it is now $1.8 mil. I am guessing it has been flipped 3 or 4x, but sadly no Zillow.ca yet. Canada is diseased.

#33 acdel on 05.04.16 at 8:18 pm

Never would have believed that Trump would make it this far. Goes to show you how angry and disgusted American’s are at the choices they have. I would not be surprised if this will be the lowest voter turnout in American history; another Clinton or a guy feeding on peoples anger. How will the world react if Trump is elected and starts tearing up free trade agreements?? I gather certain interests groups would not be so amused by it!

Great blog Garth, it is frightening on what is happening with the Canadian economy, real-estate and how many will unfortunately succumb to the inevitable.

As an Albertan I personally would like to thank you for the links, stay safe Mackers, and we will do what we can to help you.

#34 Bottoms_Up on 05.04.16 at 8:25 pm

Bringing jobs to Canadians. Well done Garth.

#35 Godth on 05.04.16 at 8:30 pm

Abby Martin Interviews Guy Mcpherson: Human Extinction by 2030
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SU9nf7V_4O4

#36 mathman on 05.04.16 at 8:35 pm

Excellent post yesterday Garth! I played on team a few years ago full of trust fund babies and man they were overbidding on houses and proud of it with their parents money! But they were “homeowners” and better than me the renter.

What I have found in my experience, the kids that had parents who still wiped their assess into their twenties, are the same 35 year olds who feel entitled to a house they have no business living in, drive leased low end luxury cars, call in sick on mondays and fridays without batting an eyelash and generally never get ahead in life with the exception of financial layups they continue to get from their parents. They are happy to coast through life with the “implicit guarantee” of the bank of mom and dad if they overextend

I’ve been lucky enough to avoid hiring this type for the most part, but sometimes they slip through the cracks and it shows as soon as the probation period is up.

I would highly recommend the millionaire next door for any parent who is thinking little Johnny or Jane “needs” their financial help in adulthood or who thinks that their kids can’t afford tuition at a CDN university.

The greatest gift my parents gave my siblings and I was independance and an understanding of being independant at an early age. It makes my stomach churn that legions of my age cohort are bleeding their extemely hard working parents dry in order to finance a lifestyle they have not earned or deserve.

the housing insanity is a function of;

1. CMHC
2. Interest Rates
3. Parents
4. Deep rooted behaviorial bias and cultural negativity towards renting
5. Significant lack of math skills and financial literacy

I may be wrong by I see the RE market getting creamed here across the country, and the economy going down the tubes for a while.

#37 BillyBob on 05.04.16 at 8:35 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/currencies/loonie-slumps-as-record-trade-gap-undercuts-canadian-recovery-bets/article29864185/

I’m sure Mark will be along shortly to earnestly explain away the sudden plunge in CAD, a mere 2 days after he was gloating over it’s rise. *sigh*

Pride cometh before…

#38 Tony on 05.04.16 at 8:36 pm

The headline should read “Arson In Fort McMurray”. Just when they start getting their property tax assessments and find out their properties are accessed at double or triple what they’ll sell for. Gee what a coincidence. I remember Woodbridge back around 1988 and all the arsons there. 80 percent of the fall in the Canadian dollar can be attributed to the fall in Australian interest rates. The other 20 percent in the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

#39 Tony on 05.04.16 at 8:39 pm

Re: #3 ILoveCharts on 05.04.16 at 7:06 pm

Fire or no fire soon Fort McMurray will be a ghost town with only a few hundred people left in it.

#40 Lead Paint on 05.04.16 at 8:42 pm

Thanks for the links Garth, I donated.

#41 Boom! on 05.04.16 at 8:46 pm

#7 Flopper….

Hey, I have been out of town, at a geezer convention, no internet until I got back home today.

Who set Ft. Mac on fire?? See WUL has evacuated north… no further word on him?? What a mess, and not even caused by Real Estate speculation. Wild fires can be … unpredictable things. used to live in Peshtigo, WI. Now they had a interesting burn, same day as the Big Chicago fire Oct 8, 1871. google it.

Anyway, hope he’s OK and that some rain comes to slow the burn.

Thanks, Garth for posting ways to help.

M64WI

#42 presley1000 on 05.04.16 at 8:48 pm

If the Belfountain offers dairy free ice-cream/gelato… I’ll make it a pit stop on my visits to sis in Orangeville.

#43 Damifino on 05.04.16 at 8:48 pm

#15 condo guy

“assessed at 400k and listed for 468…. we offered 520k. the condo had 20 offers and sold for 600k”
——————————

That’s because the list price was a lie to being with.

To get a realistic base price add 15% to the list price. Then bid high by offering another 15% on that. Then you might have chance.

When a dealer advertises a new car for 32K you should expect to pay over 40K before the deal is actually done.

#44 JamesA on 05.04.16 at 8:50 pm

The death toll seems mercifully low for Fort McMurray. The photos look terrifying. I am glad everyone kept to the task at hand and made it out. Hopefully the fire has run out of fuel were people live.

In terms of US politics: https://twitter.com/smod2016

And still the housing bubble menace grows stronger. Its all too depressing. Need to find some happy thoughts.

#45 westsider on 05.04.16 at 8:50 pm

I’ll offer this insanity one more time. House we rent in Pt. Grey, sold March 30 for $3.8 mill on a shadow flip( No transfer tax for gov’t) buyer held for a month and had open house last weekend, asking $4,588,888. Chinese realtor apparently has 3 offshore parties interested at $5 mill+.WTF?Is this the top?

#46 BG on 05.04.16 at 8:51 pm

Corporate world and bureaucracy suck.

The popular incompetent get promoted to managing positions. Spend the day in their office surfing the Internet.

People who get sh*t done get stacked in cubicles or worst, and their skills bound with red tape.

Really, corporate world is full of genuinely useless people as you get higher in the hierarchy, the less you do and the more you earn.

And the worse part is a lot of them are mediocre people. They like to show off and pretend they’re important, it’s so pathetic.

They understand the system well: The less you do, the less you can fail, the longer you stay.

Yeah, I had a bad day in the cubicle, but it does not make all this stuff less true.

I thought I could do this for while as it pays quite well.
But now I feel like I will either go nuts or turn into them.
Need an escape plan.

#47 David on 05.04.16 at 8:51 pm

Two units in our 23-unit condo building resold this week at prices which left the former owners smiling. Nanaimo is on fire too. After all, Vancouver is just a scenic 1 hour 40 minute ferry ride away.

#48 Ogopogo on 05.04.16 at 8:51 pm

1600 houses and many businesses destroyed in Fort Mac.

Was there ever a better time to be a renter than in that poor city, already suffering from the collapse of the housing bubble and oil? In times like this, it is instructive to see how quickly a situation can change.

Stay liquid, mobile, unfettered. And for everyone in Fort Mac, I wish you the best.

#49 Smoking Man on 05.04.16 at 8:53 pm

#28 Pete on 05.04.16 at 8:03 pm
Smoky, you are the man. I hope you can find a new pathway to the insights that the chemicals have given you….they’re fun and enjoyable, but the downsides can be a bitch.

Glad you’re back, keep posting
……………

Thanks man, Don’t know what I had last month but I know it would have killed any normal human.

I lost about 8 days of consciousness, no recollection of even being in hospital, just some selfies my kids took.

I think I got alcohol poisoning which combined with a bad bug did it.

I’m back.

#50 BG on 05.04.16 at 8:55 pm

#33 acdel on 05.04.16 at 8:18 pm
Never would have believed that Trump would make it this far. Goes to show you how angry and disgusted American’s are at the choices they have. I would not be surprised if this will be the lowest voter turnout in American history

*********************************************

Really you didn’t learn from your mistake of underestimating the guy: I predict an exceptionally high voter turnout because Trump, hate him or love him.

#51 MF on 05.04.16 at 8:59 pm

#33 acdel on 05.04.16 at 8:18 pm

You meant highest voter turnout ever right? It’s not that Americans are tired of the choices they have, it’s also that they are looking at leftist policies here and in Europe and saying no thanks Jeff.

#36 mathman on 05.04.16 at 8:35 pm

You are not wrong. Our cohort is a joke. I also don’t see a “slow melt” like Garth says here in the GTA. I see a collapse. What’s stopping it? The BOC? LOL they are at a wall with “emergency” interest rates and realize more and more every day how much of a failed policy it has been.

#38 Tony on 05.04.16 at 8:36 pm

I used to think your comments were outlandish, but now I really look forward to them. Keep up the good work (serious).

Turnernation and Smoking Man have been on point as of late too.

MF

#52 Protea on 05.04.16 at 9:00 pm

#1 God Emperor on Trump, what a clown you are one of those who improve our gene pool by removing themselves from it. I am not a fan of Trump but don’t underestimate him.

Gandhi in his quest of the leadership of the Indian National Congress in 1921 : exclaimed that “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win” kind of what is happening to Trump.

anyway #1 God Emperor on Trump this blog which Garth writes with intelligence column today was a reality check of what we might expect in the future we can do without your stupid comments? try and keep to the subject at hand. It makes for more interesting comments and discussion.

#53 common sense on 05.04.16 at 9:01 pm

What’s so ironic about The Donald is that the books I read 2 years ago projected the USA would be pulling back worldwide any ways. They just can’t afford to be spending money everywhere any more and as they became more energy independent the need to intervene is not as great.

They have available land, energy and a somewhat better demographic than most other countries plus who is going to invade them?

The Donald’s time has come like it or not. I wish were as fed up as many Americans..

#54 For those about to flop... on 05.04.16 at 9:01 pm

#30 WUL on 05.04.16 at 8:07 pm
Thank you Garth. Thank you Dogs. I have had it so good compared to 10s of thousands of people who were chased from their homes in the Mac yesterday.

Please, please people, prepare a personal emergency plan regardless of your circumstances and family circumstances. Both for shelter-in-place and evacuation. Run drills with your kids. Lots of terrible dangers can arise in the blink of an eye as I went through yesterday.

Lots of resources on the web.

Hey FLOP. I am lucky and fine. Tired now pal. Anxious to see what life brings next, Pal.

////////////////////////////////

That’s the best news I’ve had all day.

I have lived in B.C since 02 but I’ve got not time for this B.C vs A.B bullcrap. There are idiots in both provinces and good people in both as well.
Wishing ill on a whole province seems pretty stupid to me.
Sporting rivalries are cool ,wishing harm on a city so people will go back east or west ,I am not familiar with this thinking …maybe because I grew up on a small island.

Midnight Oil sang it best…how do we sleep when our beds are burning.

Get some sleep brother…

M41BC

#55 WallOfWorry on 05.04.16 at 9:05 pm

The only fly in the ointment is that this blog focuses exclusively on Canada…but in case you didn’t notice, there is a global currency crisis…so money will continue to flow into Canada, interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. Did you see the latest US and China economic numbers? This charade can easily carry on for another 6 years Garth….you will probably be retired by then.

#56 For those about to flop... on 05.04.16 at 9:08 pm

#41 Boom! on 05.04.16 at 8:46 pm
#7 Flopper….

Hey, I have been out of town, at a geezer convention, no internet until I got back home today.

Who set Ft. Mac on fire?? See WUL has evacuated north… no further word on him?? What a mess, and not even caused by Real Estate speculation. Wild fires can be … unpredictable things. used to live in Peshtigo, WI. Now they had a interesting burn, same day as the Big Chicago fire Oct 8, 1871. google it.

Anyway, hope he’s OK and that some rain comes to slow the burn.

Thanks, Garth for posting ways to help.

M64WI

//////////////////////////////////////

Hey Boom,yeah I was wondering what you were up to.
I seen you put a late post up on the previous one and I thought ,well he hasn’t hit room temperature as you like to say.

Anyways ,welcome back Boom…

#57 Why Me on 05.04.16 at 9:09 pm

As in Australia, they’ll eventually cut interest rates here too. That will boost housing even more in TO. Prices rose 19% last year? Well, we haven’t seen anything yet. And to think, people have been hollering about a correction for years. Yeah. Sure.

#58 For those about to flop... on 05.04.16 at 9:15 pm

MF re Tony.

I used to think your comments were outlandish, but now I really look forward to them.

//////////////////////////////////

You alright bro?
You gonna believe Tony “two terms ” Baloney.

two terms was given to him after he repeatedly stated the Obama was going to lose the next election.

MF,when you are at the hospital tomorrow ,take the oxygen mask off the wall and take few deep breaths you will thank me tomorrow night…

M41BC

#59 Tony on 05.04.16 at 9:18 pm

Re: #48 Ogopogo on 05.04.16 at 8:51 pm

1,600 homeowners with that million dollar smile on their face assuming they all had fire insurance. They all scored hundreds of thousands of dollars each over and above the present day values of their said properties.

#60 MF on 05.04.16 at 9:19 pm

#53 common sense on 05.04.16 at 9:01 pm

I think this is mostly true. The US has more energy independence now than in the past, and this means less of a need to get entangled in world affairs. However, they will still need to protect geopolitical allies from rivals like China/Russia/some arab states. The rivals will still join together from time to time (when they are not killing each other) and threaten US interests. Energy independence might make the Americans more, not less, bold in those few instances. In any case energy independence is great for the US and that is one reason why the Saudi’s are trying to kill it.

MF

#61 Okanagan Man on 05.04.16 at 9:23 pm

Hey VREU, do you recall making this comment last month;

“Victoria’s major price decline could begin by the end of this month.”

Reference is as follows: – #16 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.12.16 at 6:04 pm

I guess the major price decline didn’t happen as you predicted.

“The benchmark value for the same home in April 2016 (vs. April 2015) has increased by 17.7 per cent to $684,900.”

Perhaps some 2010 to 2013 graphs would help explain….?

#62 acdel on 05.04.16 at 9:23 pm

#50 BG

Yes, I meant to say the highest voter turn-out; still cannot believe it; oh well, c’est la vie!

#63 common sense on 05.04.16 at 9:28 pm

#60 MF

I wish my 54 yr old brain could recall the name of the book that could explain the concept far better….

#64 MF on 05.04.16 at 9:31 pm

#58 For those about to flop… on 05.04.16 at 9:15 pm

lol I’m all good my man. I think it’s coming from my approaching middle age. My 33’rd B-day is weeks away and the GF is mentioning marriage more and more. Freedom First would have made it clear from day 1, but I have always loved her and never had the guts to go FF on this great woman.

Anyhow, Tony’s posts appear pessimistic at first glance, but after reading them daily, I now see sharp sarcasm, cynicism, some wittiness and tidbits of truth. I look forward to them.

MF

#65 Life among the Stars on 05.04.16 at 9:32 pm

#35 Godth on 05.04.16 at 8:30 pm

Abby Martin Interviews Guy Mcpherson: Human Extinction by 2030
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SU9nf7V_4O4

A book to sell.
He’s even more depressing than you!

“Extinction Dialogs: How to Live with Death in Mind”

#66 Brazil ex-pat on 05.04.16 at 9:35 pm

Donald Trump

We are going to witness the death of the career politician around the world. Get ready. A new day is coming.

#67 Life among the Stars on 05.04.16 at 9:38 pm

Last week I called a bottom on Long USDCAD bet. My post from April 25 when it was at 1.255
“#41 Smoking Man on 04.28.16 at 8:00 pm
Usdcad I sense a bottom. Don’t total trust my crystal ball since the fever. But I’m going to put on a small bet and see what happens.”

I’m up quite a bit. First bet in a while. Crude was climbing and so was USDCAD. So looks like a serious trend correction.


Gotta hand it to you….an ungodly alien insight… drops 2 cents within hours of your prediction…. a few more million…. Shirley’s gonna be in heat…

#68 IHCTD9 on 05.04.16 at 9:42 pm

#46 BG on 05.04.16 at 8:51 pm
Corporate world and bureaucracy suck.
——-

How long have you been at it? I felt like that a long time ago, and I stuck with it because of the money. Years go by fast, and before you knew it, I was near the top of the seniority list and was the “go to” guy doing all the same shit I ever did. The new general managers that came and went wanted to be my buddy, and the ownership gave me random bonus raises to make sure I wouldn’t leave.

That took 15 years, and I was damn glad I stayed.

Assholes and bullshit exist everywhere, you won’t likely escape. I’ve seen many leave for greener pastures only to wish they never did.

If you are pretty new still, but are making decent coin, and especially if turnover in the office is regular, you might want to see how this could work to your advantage over time.

By the time the place I worked for went belly up, there was no one left of the original management and ownership from when I started. I was actually the last salaried guy out the door. Good jobs aren’t growing on trees. Be careful…

#69 MSM-Free Zone on 05.04.16 at 9:42 pm

Our trade numbers really suck? Not surprising.

Kind of hard to be competitive in the world when your citizens require above-market wages to pay for million dollar bungalows.

#70 God Emperor Trump on 05.04.16 at 9:44 pm

#52 I’m flattered.

But your irascibility only makes us here at the South Etobicoke Trump campaign centre more determined to Make America Great Again, and by proxy, Canada too.

Just be sure to ditch the low-energy, part-time snowboarding instructor and cannabis enthusiast Prime Minister of yours.

I implore you to be more diplomatic to our southern neighbours, because once they scrap NAFTA, a great many Canadian vendors will find themselves with a whole lot less purchase orders, and potentially – a 30-foot wall to negotiate.

#71 MF on 05.04.16 at 9:45 pm

Trump will win the next presidency, although it will be close.

The reason is the Americans are not stupid. They are looking at the leftist policies of Europe the failure and saying NO THANKS. It’s not even about what trump says, it’s what he represents. He’s nationalistic and a capitalist…the opposite of the European “leaders”. The refugee “crisis” in Europe woke up many Americans who were on the fence or in denial.

Honestly, listen to Americans speak these days. They are tired of Limousine Liberals and Latte Liberals. They view the new progressive left as wanting to destroy America and institute socialism/communism (serious). Those are two things Americans deeply value = their identity and their way of life. It’s now a new Red Scare and Trump is seen as their savior.

MF

#72 WUL on 05.04.16 at 9:46 pm

BOOM:

Compared to the other 80,000 evacuees, I came out of the fire unscathed. I lose only possessions and likely my job. Scratches compared to everyone else.

I am alive, in an oil sands work camp and likely to be flown to Calgary within 36 hours courtesy of a major oil sands company.

Only one complaint. The camp is a dry camp. Can’t win ’em all.

Nice to hear from you.

#73 TRT on 05.04.16 at 9:48 pm

Anyone know the cause of the Fort Mac fire.

Was it deliberate attempt to reduce rental stock? That over corrected. Lol

#74 understood by few on 05.04.16 at 9:56 pm

#61 Okanagan Man on 05.04.16 at 9:23 pm
Hey VREU, do you recall making this comment last month;

“Victoria’s major price decline could begin by the end of this month.”
——————–

Key word is could. It was definitely in the realm of possibility (maybe not plausible or probable.. but definitely possible).

I’m not a big fan of the benchmark home. I understand why they created it, but the fact they don’t give mean and median for each sub-area of greater vic any more (and back when they did they hadn’t invented “benchmark” yet). So it’s difficult to compare past years if you want to narrow down on an area (because not all areas are hot). Anyhow, the numbers are nuts.

For single family dwellings in GVic:
April 2016 mean – $756,143
April 2015 mean – $635,340

April 2016 median – $645,000
April 2015 Median – $570,000

Those are some significant gains. Not Vancouver style, but nuts as far as Victoria goes.

#75 Steve French on 05.04.16 at 9:56 pm

Wondering if those 83% of Fort McMurray /Cold Lake residents who did not think agree with the statement that the “Earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activities” … are having second thoughts about that now?

My heart goes out to them.

But I believe it’s called: “reaping the whirlwind”.

#76 45north on 05.04.16 at 10:04 pm

the average property in Vancouver rose in benchmark price to $1.4 million. In one year that’s a 30.1% advance – about 15 times the rate of inflation and twenty times the average growth in wages. It also means the average house costs 19 times what the average Vancouver family earns.

Vancouver is so far from fundamentals that a crash is inevitable. People that have borrowed the down payment from their parents and are throwing their salary into the mortgage are in a fragile psychological state.

The banks know this but on houses over $1 million, they have a 20% cushion ( the down payment )

Look I’m not a bank but I see them ( the banks ) playing a very grim game. I suppose that Garth can point to his blog and say that he did everything he could do to warn them.

#77 Smoking Man on 05.04.16 at 10:05 pm

#71 MF on 05.04.16 at 9:45 pm
Trump will win the next presidency, although it will be close.

The reason is the Americans are not stupid. They are looking at the leftist policies of Europe the failure and saying NO THANKS. It’s not even about what trump says, it’s what he represents. He’s nationalistic and a capitalist…the opposite of the European “leaders”. The refugee “crisis” in Europe woke up many Americans who were on the fence or in denial.

Honestly, listen to Americans speak these days. They are tired of Limousine Liberals and Latte Liberals. They view the new progressive left as wanting to destroy America and institute socialism/communism (serious). Those are two things Americans deeply value = their identity and their way of life. It’s now a new Red Scare and Trump is seen as their savior.

MF
……

Excellent observation.

#78 Toronto Dweller on 05.04.16 at 10:10 pm

Thank God everyone got out safe from that burning mess. I was working there for a few years and saw what damage those wildfires can do.
I just want to commend the professionalism and insane bravery of the firefighters dealing with this mess and the government officials the end issuing an evacuation order.
We might not live in a perfect country but I have faith and trust in institutions of this land.

#79 For those about to flop... on 05.04.16 at 10:15 pm

#64 MF on 05.04.16 at 9:31 pm
#58 For those about to flop… on 05.04.16 at 9:15 pm

lol I’m all good my man. I think it’s coming from my approaching middle age. My 33’rd B-day is weeks away and the GF is mentioning marriage more and more. Freedom First would have made it clear from day 1, but I have always loved her and never had the guts to go FF on this great woman.

Anyhow, Tony’s posts appear pessimistic at first glance, but after reading them daily, I now see sharp sarcasm, cynicism, some wittiness and tidbits of truth. I look forward to them.

MF

//////////////////////////////////////

Yeah I’m picking up what your puttin down.

Some people that I didn’t really get at the start ,I now see their sense of humour.

I was just bugging ya,be your own man.
I think Tony is a nut ,but one mans nut is another mans friend.

I used to get chirped way more but now I think people understand me a bit more…I use humour to numb the pain of life.

Also my birthday is coming up as well in a month or so.
I am not looking forward to changing my GAP code to M42BC as I have gotten used to…

M41BC

#80 Shawn on 05.04.16 at 10:25 pm

Racism versus Nationalism

#131 Rook on 05.04.16 at 1:25 pm said:

It isn’t racist to talk about foreign money.

************************************
(Posted this late on yesterday’s topic…)

No, it’s not (necessarily) racist to be against foreign money or foreign anything.

But it is highly nationalistic to suggest that Canada should adopt policies that block foreign money or people from economically harming Canadians individually or collectively.

For now, nationalism is okay and is politically correct. Ancient tribal instincts of favoring one’s own group die hard. Racism came from the same ancient tribal instincts but is now politically incorrect and is slowly being eliminated. Racism is FAR from gone but it is on the decline, on the run even.

Nationalism will also decline in future. Someday it will be politically incorrect to adopt policies that strongly favor Canadians over foreigners. The word foreigner will be politically incorrect as well.

That day is very far off however. Today it’s still somewhat politically correct for Americans to speak of illegal immigrants as illegal “aliens”. That will change.

Someday, most advanced countries will accept that humans have a basic right to move to another country as long as they are law-abiding and they will no longer be barred except if they are deemed to be dangerous. It will no longer be politically correct to think that Canada has some right to stop immigrants from coming especially if they have financial means. Quotas like no more than 250,000 immigrants per year for Canada will be frowned upon at the very least or deemed illegal under international law.

I was born a nationalist and attended Expo ’67 (I was seven). But like most people my thinking has evolved. I don’t particularly think it is any more correct for me to favor Canadians in my dealings than it would be for me to favor people of my own race.

Views will evolve. Nationalism will be for sports only and have no place in economic policy. I hope…

#81 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 05.04.16 at 10:25 pm

Last week I called a bottom on Long USDCAD bet. My post from April 25 when it was at 1.255
“#41 Smoking Man on 04.28.16 at 8:00 pm

I luv u but I hate u. why couldn’t u wait until i closed escrow u heartless trading alien???

#82 BS on 05.04.16 at 10:29 pm

In March we imported $3.4 billion more than we sold – which is a record. Said Scotia economist Derek Holt: “This is simply a horrible report.” He’s right. We shipped the smallest amount to the States since way back in 1993 – twenty-three years ago, during a bad recession. By the way, exports slumped the month before, too, and are down in 10 of 11 major categories. If Canada were a business, we’d be in a cash flow crisis and burning through the line of credit. Which, of course, we are. The federal deficit this year will probably hit $30 billion – and there’s not even an economic crisis.

Welcome to the Jr. Trudeau years. The sad part is it only gets worse from here.

#83 Godth on 05.04.16 at 10:29 pm

#65 Life among the Stars on 05.04.16 at 9:32 pm

Oh my, a scientist writing a book – wow, it might even have a bibliography! That video was a few years old and things have really picked up speed since then. The funny thing is that you seem to think you’ll avoid it.

#84 BOOM! on 05.04.16 at 10:31 pm

#72 WUL

I have been watching the CBC news on the fires. Turned ugly pretty quickly! Glad you are safe, and will be out of the area shortly. Yes, you’ll be so dry you’ll be farting dust, but that can be quickly alleviated. I hope your job is not also lost in the flames, but if so, a smart barrister will always find another gig. Never fear, the day is yet new every 24 hours.

Since I was quite thoroughly but off from news and internet, since Monday, it was interesting to see Bernie won Indiana -who would have guessed that one? Trump won as well, the Cruz crashed, the market took a dump, and all is well….. go figure?

We DO get too enmeshed in the mundane crapola of TV, radio, the Net, the ever present phone.

This ‘break’ was a bit of an eye-opener, for me. I spent the time with people, ranging from my age to 92. A lot of wisdom there, and they shared it freely!

I might go for the urban-Amish idea, less media, more reading – good reading. Thin out the nonsense media.

What was most interesting was the 92 year old, drinking with us, he had brandy manhattans, several, then dinner & went dancing! Not too bad a Texas 2 step either! Oh, maybe there is, indeed, hope!

#85 BS on 05.04.16 at 10:35 pm

condo guy on 05.04.16 at 7:34 pm

here is an example of the insanity in yvr

we are looking for a 2 bedrooms condo. we found a nice 875 square foot condo in burnaby/brentwood assessed at 400k and listed for 468.

we offered 520k. the condo had 20 offers and sold for 600k.

welcome to vancouver

You do realize you are part of the reason it is insane. A rational person would not be bidding $520K on a condo assessed at $400K. The condo is probably worth $200k. Just be glad there are people even dumber than you.

#86 Bottoms_Up on 05.04.16 at 10:36 pm

#78 Toronto Dweller on 05.04.16 at 10:10 pm
————————-
Yep, sad but true, we frequently have individuals on here attacking the salary and benefits of public servants including firefighters and officials that co-ordinate responses to emergencies and evacuations, nurses and doctors, police, rcmp etc. We have great people working for us in this great country, we should never forget that.

#87 Randall on 05.04.16 at 10:37 pm

This is the most accurate analysis of Vancouver’s ‘problem’ I have seen ever….and I’ve been observing for nearly thirty years.

Spot on!

http://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/mpp/pdfs/Vancouver's%20Housing%20Affordability%20Crisis%20Report%202016%20Final%20Version.pdf

#88 Capt. Obvious on 05.04.16 at 10:37 pm

Well, Americans get the politicians they deserve, or something like that. I’m still getting a kick out of Republicans who think Trump will somehow be better than career politicians. He’s going to be much worse, since he really doesn’t seem to give a damn about anyone. Whatever catches his eye is fair game.

Stay safe Fort Mac

#89 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 05.04.16 at 10:40 pm

#2 The Trumpening on 05.04.16 at 7:04 pm

Frist. Bill Frist.
——————————-
YOU IDIOT!!! YOU JUST JINXED THE REAL DONALD TRUMP BY CALLING FIRST, AND LANDING IN SECOND!!!

JUST STUPID! THANKS A LOT, TRUCK NUTZ!!

#90 Bottoms_Up on 05.04.16 at 10:42 pm

#75 Steve French on 05.04.16 at 9:56 pm
———————-
Although a single event “anecdotal” can never be proven to be due to global warming, it is likely the record El Nino this year is due in large part to global warming, and this in turn affected conditions in Fort Mac. These are exactly the types of events that are considered and built into climate change models that lead to the conclusion global warming is bad for us and we need to decarbonize.

#91 Future Expatriate on 05.04.16 at 10:42 pm

Have no fear. Der Protectionist Weirdo will never be US President; look at his kids. They know more than anyone that he never wanted to be President and are deathly afraid that his idiot followers will figure it out one day.

#92 Bat Flipper on 05.04.16 at 10:49 pm

Not surprising that so many qualified people are looking for work. The news would make you believe that we are all millionaires eating caviar while trading houses for millions, but not really the case.

Boomers are staying in their homes for now, and the baby boomers kids are being backed by the bank of mom & dad to get into the market.

If you took out gifted down payments, parents co-signing for mortgages, and parents buying homes for kids, there would be a lot less transactions.

Also, mortgage insurance has clearly gone too far. Homes are supposed to be affordable. People who use all their money servicing debts do nothing for the economy. Even the banks don’t want to be so leveraged, but since it is insured, who cares….

If you tell me I can make 2% risk free and I can leverage 10-20 times the money I keep in the bank; obviously, I am going to dump all my money into that.

Seeing the demand for work, I too have been doing some hiring lately, is impressive, one would think we are in a recession.

#93 MSM-Free Zone on 05.04.16 at 10:54 pm

#71 MF on 05.04.16 at 9:45 pm
“…..They view the new progressive left as wanting to destroy America…….”
_________________________

Apparently, Americans have short memories.

The U.S. already blew its financial brains out (along with the rest of the world’s) in 2008 under a deregulation-friendly, right-wing, Republican ‘less-government-is-best-government’.

We all saw how that movie ended.

#94 Terry on 05.04.16 at 11:12 pm

YES, GO TRUMP!!!

Mr. Donald Trump will be the next US President. Get used to it Canada………you are not the smart special little snowflake’s you think you are!

#95 Victor V on 05.04.16 at 11:17 pm

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/versailles-of-vaughan-reduced-price/

In 2013, a home that easily ranks among the wildest in the GTA went on the market for $17.8 million. The so-called “Versailles of Vaughan,” a 24,000-square-foot mansion on Rocmary Place, is a fantasia of faux-European luxury, down to the murals on the ceilings, the gaudy statuary slotted into every nook, the colonnaded indoor pool and the heated “Ferrari room.”

It appears there weren’t a lot of big-spending buyers in the market for a suburban pleasure palace, though, because the property is now back on the market with a reduced list price: a mere $14,888,000.

#96 the Jaguar on 05.04.16 at 11:18 pm

#53 Common Sense – regarding the Americans ” pulling back” to save money on ‘expenses’.

Hmmm ….maybe they could start with the removal of what the Pentagon conservatively estimates are 662 military bases in at least 38 countries. (reality is probably more). Maybe start in the eastern part of Cuba where they have no strategic reason to be there and where the government of that country has pleaded with them to vacate forever…. Or Japan where lots of really awful things have occurred due to their ‘occupation’ of a free and democratic country. I guess we will see how the Military Industrial Complex deals with the musings of Donald Trump. Kennedy was rich, too, but it did not protect him from them. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a city of 83,000 in one of Canada’s industrial engines has just been ‘toasted’. Not a forest fire that just involves trees alone. Not a flood. No moving across town into the mother-in-law’s basement until the clean up is over. An entire city and it’s infrastructure that supports thousands of jobs across Canada has just been snuffed out. Exactly where do those people go and what happens to the income they generated? Not just another headline on the evening news about something bad that happened far away from your backyard. Stay tuned. Repercussions are coming to your backyard soon. Very proud of those people in Ft. McMurray today. Like all real Albertans they are not quitters.

#97 Love my Kia on 05.04.16 at 11:22 pm

Thank you for the sobering post Garth. The fires in Ft Mac are a solemn reminder on how insane our desire for real estate can disappear in a flash yet financial obligations remain for those who didn’t insure, or will be poorly compensated by insurers who will pay out as little as possible.

Other than a car crash fatality its a miracle no one else was injured or died. For lack of a better word, the renter in Fort Mac is the lucky one once the smoke clears.

Thank you for posting those links to financial assistance agencies affected by this disaster. Helping each other is what I think that makes us Canadians great.

#98 BG on 05.04.16 at 11:31 pm

68 IHCTD9

************************

I’m not even salaried.
I’m freelance. A specialist on a contract. Hourly rate. And that’s one of the reasons why it pays so well, and why I’m hanging in there.

I used to be salaried though and even if it’s still 9-5 cubicle life now, I consider the switch an upgrade.

What I crave ultimately is day to day freedom to organize my time, or not organize it.
Work, yes, but when and where I want to – no direct boss, no wearing a shirt “just because”.

And no bureaucracy.

#99 willworkforpickles on 05.04.16 at 11:35 pm

Trump will build a wall on the north border and Canadians will pay for it…Trump worries America will not be great again or even American with too many people (influenced by Canadians) going around saying….hows it goin eh.

#100 DON on 05.04.16 at 11:36 pm

#74 understood by few on 05.04.16 at 9:56 pm

#61 Okanagan Man on 05.04.16 at 9:23 pm
Hey VREU, do you recall making this comment last month;

“Victoria’s major price decline could begin by the end of this month.”
——————–

Key word is could. It was definitely in the realm of possibility (maybe not plausible or probable.. but definitely possible).

I’m not a big fan of the benchmark home. I understand why they created it, but the fact they don’t give mean and median for each sub-area of greater vic any more (and back when they did they hadn’t invented “benchmark” yet). So it’s difficult to compare past years if you want to narrow down on an area (because not all areas are hot). Anyhow, the numbers are nuts.

For single family dwellings in GVic:
April 2016 mean – $756,143
April 2015 mean – $635,340

April 2016 median – $645,000
April 2015 Median – $570,000

Those are some significant gains. Not Vancouver style, but nuts as far as Victoria goes

*************************************

Just wondering – if you have the stats handy…are you realtors. Just applying some observation and root cause analysis here. There was an expected blip due to the new down payment rules. Do you believe this will last forever? If you do…can you project into the future and tell the story based on our current benchmark and year over year gains? Just wondering?

#101 DON on 05.04.16 at 11:41 pm

#47 David on 05.04.16 at 8:51 pm

Two units in our 23-unit condo building resold this week at prices which left the former owners smiling. Nanaimo is on fire too. After all, Vancouver is just a scenic 1 hour 40 minute ferry ride away.
******************************

That’s probably due to the Chinese flocking to Nomindo. When I past through Nan last weekend…all I can hear is people screaming the…”The Chinese are coming, the Chinese are coming”.

The trip from Nan to Van is approx One hour and 40 minutes not factoring in time to wait, then load, then unload. The ferries are often delayed and iffy on the windy days.

#102 TnT on 05.04.16 at 11:46 pm

Anyone else catch the City TV segment on Foreign investors in Toronto tonight?

#103 Ogopogo on 05.04.16 at 11:52 pm

#59 Tony on 05.04.16 at 9:18 pm
Re: #48 Ogopogo on 05.04.16 at 8:51 pm

1,600 homeowners with that million dollar smile on their face assuming they all had fire insurance. They all scored hundreds of thousands of dollars each over and above the present day values of their said properties.

The insurer doesn’t just hand over a cheque willy-nilly dude. The first condition is that the insured will rebuild on the same property. Good luck doing that if your town has been scorched to cinders. Trust me, it’s nothing like you think it is. I know extreme details of fire clauses because of the Kelowna fires of 2003. And that’s for the people with the best policies. Most tend to have hidden loopholes because insurance holders are typically under-insured to save money.

Insurance fantasy fail.

#104 Sheane Wallace on 05.04.16 at 11:53 pm

Mark was enjoying the CAD dead cat bounce. Then came the trade deficit report. First all time worse of many more to come.

This is what you get with a ‘housing’ economy – fake GDP, no capital investment, no exports.

Long term CAD is cooked. done. finito. It is worth exactly 1/1.2 millionth of a crappy Toronto shack or 1/1.8 millionth of a crappy Vancouver shack. i.e. nothing.

We will still need to evaluate the role of the federal government officials in propping and backing the CMHC insanity, when it is understood that governments and BOC are enemy of the savers I won’t put any faith in
the currency we enjoy. It is simply coupons with expiration date. It is that simple.

Negative rates are here to stay. Along with the coming capital controls as no sane person would keep their money in the bank with negative rates and Poloz at the helm of BOC.

#105 Love my Kia on 05.04.16 at 11:59 pm

Quite a miracle come to think of it there were no deaths or injuries. My concern now is the aftermath, people mortgaged with no insurance, job losses beyond the already struggling oil patch, businesses burned down, brand new large airport may be destroyed this time tomorrow, etc.

Once the fire is out the real problems of rebuilding in a negative economic climate begin. They will be needing us more than ever after that, and THAT will be a monumental task. This event will be with us a long time.

Socialism will be their only chance.

#106 Al on 05.05.16 at 12:10 am

For many homeowners in Fort Mac who were struggling to sell and about to drop off the keys at the lender’s office, they now have money coming to them from the property insurer.

#107 BillyBob on 05.05.16 at 12:36 am

Midnight Oil sang it best…how do we sleep when our beds are burning.

====================================

Ahhh Midnight Oil…remember seeing them in Victoria in the 80’s, Peter Garrett spazzing around the stage like a bald male Janis Joplin. Mesmerizing to watch, great show. Believe he went on to politics or something?

Too bad the Aussie pilots in our outfit are the running joke, the “Ozztranauts” who seem to think they invented aviation, are never wrong, and never shy to correct the smallest perceived error and explain the “correct” way of doing everything “mate” lol..was totally bizarre to me, all the Australians I ever met in Canada were chilled, easygoing individuals but The Sandpit seems to draw a disproportionate number of pedantic Antipodeans…maybe the culture is Canada is just more laid-back?

#108 Protea on 05.05.16 at 12:41 am

#87 Randall on 05.04.16 at 10:37 pm
This is the most accurate analysis of Vancouver’s ‘problem’ I have seen ever….and I’ve been observing for nearly thirty years.

Spot on!

I totally agree, excellent synopsis of what has happened in Vancouver. the upsetting matter is the current Provincial Govt won’t do a damn thing. He is mostly correct but its also the greed and stupidity of folks jumping into the fire and putting themselves in harms way.

#109 Jon on 05.05.16 at 12:54 am

Just back from an interview in Texas, free trip I figured from Alberta, why not. Engineering job, great exporting tech base down there. Pros and cons to working in Texas? Thanks for any help!

#110 Metaxa on 05.05.16 at 12:59 am

@ #86 Bottoms Up
#78 Toronto Dweller on 05.04.16 at 10:10 pm
————————-
Yep, sad but true, we frequently have individuals on here attacking the salary and benefits of public servants including firefighters and officials that co-ordinate responses to emergencies and evacuations, nurses and doctors, police, rcmp etc. We have great people working for us in this great country, we should never forget that.

I too hold a far higher opinion of my country, its institutions and its young coming up than many on this particular corner of the Internet. Happy and proud to be Canadian.

As to our troubles and what is happening in the rest of the world:
Chile
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Thousands-of-Tons-of-Dead-Creatures-Hit-Chiles-Beaches-20160504-0021.html
Viet Nam
http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-vietnam-fish-20160504-story.html

And lastly from what I have read in reputable media it was a transformer explosion that set off the Alberta wild fires. to the putz above who suggests it was arson on the part of residents…get a life.

#111 A few ways to help the people in Fort Mac | The Money Runner on 05.05.16 at 1:06 am

[…] Via – The Greater Fool – Garth Turner […]

#112 jane 24 on 05.05.16 at 1:16 am

We don’t often get Canadian news on the BBC but we are certainly getting Fort McMoney right now so it must be bad. My sister moved down to Edmonton from FM a few years ago and we are all so glad that she did now.

My thoughts are with all who are losing all but what a lesson in life, from the top to the bottom courtesy of one forest fire.

Does anyone know how it started?

#113 Victor Y on 05.05.16 at 2:16 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItRJ54lae8g said the housing bubble is manufactured by the Government and banks to fill the gap left by the real economy, which has been shrinking for over a decade.

#114 Freedom First on 05.05.16 at 2:36 am

#36 mathman

Great post. You’re not wrong.

……………………………………………………
To the people of Fort Mac, my heartfelt empathy. I am grateful I was able to contribute. God Bless.

#115 Buy? Curious? on 05.05.16 at 3:23 am

Don’t worry your pretty little beard off, Garth. Justin “Ta-da!” Trudeau is legalising Marijuana! Problems solved!

Just a suggestion, maybe people should replace sipping scotch with a little toot-toot in the evening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8AuMOGx_KY

#116 Jobs North of Toronto on 05.05.16 at 7:43 am

To Garth’s observation that there was no shortage of qualified applicants, it brought to mind a comment I heard from someone I knew who built a few houses around Collingwood. When he looked for tradespeople to help him, he found a lot of good people who were willing to work cheap. This would have been around 2008/2009.

Not my intent to extrapolate from one random comment to a general statement but I think it is generally true that someone like Garth, an entrepreneur with a strong desire to help any community he is part of, is becoming more and more of a rarity. Very few people are willing to take the risks and even fewer have the resilience to keep trying. Kudos to Garth.

#117 mishuko on 05.05.16 at 7:56 am

good thing I accumulated my USD before my trip. it was a kick in the nads when I got a little bit in Jan. averaged it out around @1.30…

some of my buddies think trump is the worst thing to happen to America relating it to how Ford was for Toronto. I ask what about ‘wyn-guinty’?

silence.

MSM is strong… I have this PHD research complaining how they don’t see the Fort mac devestation as top headline at the huffington yesterday. and you are surprised?

#118 Smoking Planet on 05.05.16 at 7:56 am

#111 jane 24 on 05.05.16 at 1:16 am

smoking man fell asleep on the couch in the trailer park. the rest is history in the making. He is thankful global warming is a hoax or all of Alberta would be alit now.

Fort Mac aside, to those who think burning billions and billions of tons of fossil fuels is not impacting this planet, think again, do your research. Try and stay away from the studies funded by the big fossil fuel producers and naysayers who peruse this blog.

#119 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 8:11 am

#86 Bottoms_Up on 05.04.16 at 10:36 pm

Yep, sad but true, we frequently have individuals on here attacking the salary and benefits of public servants including firefighters and officials that co-ordinate responses to emergencies and evacuations, nurses and doctors, police, rcmp etc.
_______________________________________

How dare they…

HOW DARE THEY QUESTION THE PAYCHEQUES !!

#120 Freeman on 05.05.16 at 8:14 am

While everyone is worrying about a little bit of real estate burning, what about having a foreign corporation pushing poison down your throat, and when you object they SUE YOU IN COURT? That is basically what we will be getting soon if Trudeau signs that TTIP deal with the U.S.

The Canadian government wants to ratify the TTIP free trade deal with the U.S. ?

THEY BETTER NOT, and here is why:

If they do, then the Canadian government will lose all of it’s powers to set their own laws on Environmental protection. Yes, you’ve got that right, the government will be forced to do whatever corporations want.

Example: If the government tries to make it illegal to dump a toxic cancer causing chemical into the country’s drinking water, then the TTIP deal will allow the corporations to sue the government for $Trillions of potential lost profits.

Read about it here:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ttip-leaks-shocking-what-are-they-eu-us-deal-a7010121.html

QUOTE: “US corporations will be granted unprecedented powers over any new public health or safety regulations to be introduced in future. If any European government does dare to bring in laws to raise social or environmental standards, TTIP will grant US investors the right to sue for loss of profits. …….
Today’s shock leak of the text of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) marks the beginning of the end for the hated EU-US trade deal……
The unelected negotiators have kept the talks going until now by means of a fanatical level of secrecy, with threats of criminal prosecution for anyone divulging the treaty’s contents.”

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.16 at 8:15 am

@#66 Brazil exPat
“We are going to witness the death of the career politician around the world. Get ready. A new day is coming…..”
******************************************

Donald Trump.
An obnoixious man born with a silver spoon in his mouth that believes his own public relations braggadoccio.
A man who threatens violence if he doesnt reach office.
Not a great harbinger of “democracy” in the forthcoming elections.
When I see blacks, latinos, women AND card carrying Republlicans all lining up to voice their disgust with Trump…….

Hillary Clinton will mop the floor with him and when he has completely destroyed the last vestiges of the Republican Party…..then yes…..a new day will come.

#122 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 8:17 am

#108 Jon on 05.05.16 at 12:54 am
Just back from an interview in Texas, free trip I figured from Alberta, why not. Engineering job, great exporting tech base down there. Pros and cons to working in Texas? Thanks for any help!
____________________________________________

Cons – hotter than the bowels of hades in the summer

Pro’s – Pretty much everything else compared to Canada.

That’s provided you are not a hard left ding-a-ling that hates pickup trucks, guns, and rich folks.

#123 cramar on 05.05.16 at 8:17 am

#85 BS on 05.04.16 at 10:35 pm

You do realize you are part of the reason it is insane. A rational person would not be bidding $520K on a condo assessed at $400K. The condo is probably worth $200k. Just be glad there are people even dumber than you.

———————–

Looks like RE really is a zero-sum game. Dumb and dumber, offset by the genius who sold. He gets $520k for something really worth far less.

Garth should change the name of this blog to “The Greater Genius,” celebrating those who sell into this madness!

#124 Tkid on 05.05.16 at 8:17 am

Thoughts and prayers are with Fort Mac. Going over my bug out bags and reviewing my evacuation plans. You never know when an emergency might hit.

#125 fancy_pants on 05.05.16 at 8:18 am

#71 MF on 05.04.16 at 9:45 pm

+1

The west is nearing the last fork in the road to divert paths from what is enfolding in the EU. US still has hope. I fear Canada may be too far gone. Welcome to Canada. How can we change for you?

What is frightening is the prospect of a group that will play the leftist lamb and over time once they get the numbers, will become the roaring lion on the right. I’ll leave that to one’s imagination.

#126 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 8:24 am

#104 Love my Kia on 05.04.16 at 11:59 pm

Socialism will be their only chance.

__________________________________________

LOL!

Do they have a sickle and hammer spotlight to shine up into the sky like the bat signal?

Or is it more like Superman where socialism will just swoop down amongst the helpless to save the day?

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.16 at 8:45 am

@ #87 Randall

An excellent. easy to understand report on the Vancouver real estate market.
The link deserves a repost.

http://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/mpp/pdfs/Vancouver's%20Housing%20Affordability%20Crisis%20Report%202016%20Final%20Version.pdf

#128 Julia on 05.05.16 at 8:52 am

This semi-detached not too far from me, on a busy street and bus route, just sold after less than a week in a bidding war for over $1 million (a local realtor told me). This was a quick reno and flip.

People are insane.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16865496/408-DAVISVILLE-AVE-Toronto-Ontario-M4S1H5-Mount-Pleasant-East

#129 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 9:09 am

#97 BG on 05.04.16 at 11:31 pm
68 IHCTD9

************************

I’m not even salaried.
I’m freelance. A specialist on a contract. Hourly rate. And that’s one of the reasons why it pays so well, and why I’m hanging in there.

I used to be salaried though and even if it’s still 9-5 cubicle life now, I consider the switch an upgrade.

What I crave ultimately is day to day freedom to organize my time, or not organize it.
Work, yes, but when and where I want to – no direct boss, no wearing a shirt “just because”.

And no bureaucracy.

___________________________________________

Ahh, I see – different deal altogether.

One thing I wish I did do differently was save at an absolutely savage rate when I was younger. At 43, I now feel it’s likely that I’ll have to bail on my career before 50. This is mainly due to the state of my industry in Canada, and my expectations that it won’t be long before competition by other out of work folks in my field will eventually drive the compensation down to where it was 20 years ago. The process is already underway.

Let’s just say my entire industry has been very UN-lucrative for years, and the days of milk and honey are pretty much gone for good. Wage stagnation and even wage erosion (eg. engineering jobs) has been present already for 10 years.

I would love to retire early instead of fighting like mad to work for peanuts. I could have set myself up to be comfortable, but I did not go that extreme so things would be skimpy if I had to bail now.

Keep that in the back of your head if you’re still young enough to make it happen.

#130 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 05.05.16 at 9:27 am

Mark was enjoying the CAD dead cat bounce. Then came the trade deficit report. First all time worse of many more to come.

he goes into hiding when he’s wrong (which is often and always) and will stop posting for a bit. it’s just a defence mechanism his psychology has devolved from being wrong so often

#131 The American on 05.05.16 at 9:42 am

Get a grip, people. This is what I’ve been saying. The Electoral College is NEVER going to allow Trump as President. But, for now, it is indeed fantastic entertainment. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html?_r=0

#132 TurnerNation on 05.05.16 at 9:42 am

Home Crapital corp (HCG.TO) down today again, shedding further 5% after earnings. Where there’s smoke there’s F.I.R.E industry.

#133 crappy armchair economist on 05.05.16 at 9:54 am

Trade deficit: Are there numbers that show the volumes of our products going into the US?

Showing that US demand for our products is still high (i.e. strong recovery in US) but the value of products (i.e. oil) is down?

Plus our low loonie must be hurting us on the import side of the equation.

#134 unbalanced on 05.05.16 at 10:11 am

I wish the lush visited his mother

#135 Bat Flipper on 05.05.16 at 10:11 am

http://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/mpp/pdfs/Vancouver's%20Housing%20Affordability%20Crisis%20Report%202016%20Final%20Version.pdf

This article deserves a bit of consideration. It breaks down that all other reasons cannot justify the growth in house pricing except for foreign investment. Garth has said time and time again that foreign investment is not the fact, but local trades. From the reports I have read, foreign investment is priced from 5% to 10% of all trades; however, there is also a lot of locals who are being backed by foreign investment as well. Lots of money leaving other countries coming here and boosting real estate.

Why? In a global economy, money will flow from expensive to cheap and from risky to safe. If I can sell a house and buy 2-3 safe house investments in another country, I would do it.

As any Financial Planner or investor knows, every transaction has a buyer and a seller. A winner and a loser on every trade. If there are more buyers than sellers, the price goes up. How much more buyers than sellers? It doesn’t take much. Even 1% over a large period of time can have a substantial impact on the market because of the spread between buyers and sellers.

If housing is purely local, the market would be balanced or even declining because of the ever growing supply side and the limited demand.

However, in many economies governments use real estate to pick up the slack on a failing economy.

#136 Joe on 05.05.16 at 10:23 am

Trump ripping up Free Trade Agreements might not be a bad thing. I work in the hvac industry and all the big players Honeywell, Johnson Controls (York), Carrier either make their entire product or parts in a foreign country, bring it back to North America and make a ton of money on it. Carrier closing their plant in the US won’t make it any cheaper for you to buy their product, but the corporation will make millions. Very sad, hence the support Trump is getting.

#137 Phil on 05.05.16 at 10:28 am

I for one welcome our new overlord. All hail God Emperor Trump!

#138 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 10:51 am

#135 Joe on 05.05.16 at 10:23 am
Trump ripping up Free Trade Agreements might not be a bad thing. I work in the hvac industry and all the big players Honeywell, Johnson Controls (York), Carrier either make their entire product or parts in a foreign country, bring it back to North America and make a ton of money on it. Carrier closing their plant in the US won’t make it any cheaper for you to buy their product, but the corporation will make millions. Very sad, hence the support Trump is getting.
________________________________________

This is semi correct. There sure has been an impact on the cost of consumer goods in North America due to cheap foreign manufacturing.

Look at clothing, cheaper than it has probably ever been. Tools – stupid cheap, even with the Loonie down. Look at a bottom end Chinese lawn tractor on sale at Canadian Tire for 999.99, understand that at least 3 organizations made money on that price (probably more), plus it was shipped half way around the world to you. Look at all the parts, coatings, plating, welding etc – yeah it’s a steaming pile of Chinese built garbage – but the same pile of crap made in Canada would be 2K minimum.

It’s been like this so long that you probably need to be at least 40 years old to remember otherwise. I wish I had an old Canadian Tire Catalogue kicking around from the late 80’s early 90’s. I know I can buy the parts for a brake job on my car now for half the cost of what it was in the early 90’s.

#139 Renter's Revenge! on 05.05.16 at 10:53 am

Socialism will be their only chance.

__________________________________________

LOL!

Do they have a sickle and hammer spotlight to shine up into the sky like the bat signal?

__________________________________________

No, it’s a pig signal (a la Orwell’s Animal Farm).

#140 Suede on 05.05.16 at 10:57 am

“Last month more houses sold in Toronto (12,085) than any April before. The average selling price rose 16%.”

High volume and higher prices are a good sign for upward trends. There is momentum in that market.

Low volume and spiking prices is a concern.

#141 Garry Smith on 05.05.16 at 10:58 am

[i] interesting post [/i]

#142 bill on 05.05.16 at 11:04 am

#93 MSM-Free Zone on 05.04.16 at 10:54 pm
”Separately, starting in the 1980s Congress debated bills to repeal Glass–Steagall’s affiliation provisions (Sections 20 and 32). In 1999 Congress passed the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act to repeal them, with nearly all Republicans and one Democrat in favor. Eight days later, President Bill Clinton signed it into law.”

#143 Shawn on 05.05.16 at 11:04 am

Canadian Trade Deficit Figures Dollars and Volumes

#132 crappy armchair economist on 05.05.16 at 9:54 am asked:

Trade deficit: Are there numbers that show the volumes of our products going into the US?

***********************************
Great question because yes lower oil and commodity prices explain much of the deficit and as you alluded currency also has a big impact.

Yes, Statistics Canada does comment on volumes and currencies in the release and it the tables provided.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/160504/dq160504a-eng.htm?cmp=mstatcan

#144 Lillooet, BC on 05.05.16 at 11:16 am

#10 Shawn on 05.04.16 at 7:19 pm

Remember Rule Number 1: “Always assume Buffet is correct”

and Rule Number 2: “Don’t forget rule number 1”
****************

Buffet bought IBM shares.
Time will tell if he is correct.

Admire him all the same though.

#145 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 05.05.16 at 11:29 am

Get a grip, people. This is what I’ve been saying. The Electoral College is NEVER going to allow Trump as President.

that sounds like pretty good odds. how much are you going to bet? it’s free money amirite?

http://www.wired.com/2016/03/can-bet-real-money-us-election-uh-research/

#146 understood by few on 05.05.16 at 11:38 am

#99 DON on 05.04.16 at 11:36 pm

Just wondering – if you have the stats handy…are you realtors. Just applying some observation and root cause analysis here. There was an expected blip due to the new down payment rules. Do you believe this will last forever? If you do…can you project into the future and tell the story based on our current benchmark and year over year gains? Just wondering?

————–

Not a realtor, just grabbed the historicals off the VREB website. http://www.vreb.org/historical-statistics

I was kind of standing up for VREU, since what was said wasn’t incorrect. Things could have slowed this month, as they could next. Yeah VREU was annoying, but relentless picking on is immature.

I know a few realtors (who doesn’t), they didn’t see any change related to the new down payment rules (no rush to get in before the cutoff and drop-off after). To me that means the new policies weren’t hard enough, though maybe BoM has deep pockets. Dunno. Things are more nuts now than before the cut-off (sales to listing ratio is even more nuts).

It’s anyone’s guess. I’ve heard some guesses, but none worth repeating (opinions are like ….).

Safe bet it’ll deflate as soon as stuff slows in Vancouver and a reasonable bet it’ll slow long before then. As long as the listing to sales ratio stays skewed it’ll be a seller’s market. If a bunch of people rushed to sell it’d quench things (or should.. ), but that isn’t happening.. yet.

Interesting to watch though. I think what happens in the Fall will be the most telling of where Victoria is going. Of course I’m just some random commenter who likes to watch RE in Victoria (and a few places I’m interested in moving to in both Canada and the US).

#147 TRT on 05.05.16 at 11:41 am

Prices in YVR are skyrocketing due to massive increases in temp immigration.

A few weeks ago I told you that I applied to sponsor about half a dozen family household heads for a visitor visa application into Canada to attend a function.

Guess what?

They all got 10 year visitor visas!!!. Hahaha.

They say they are going to scope out Canada for a way in for their kids. That being enrolling them as a foreign student (easiest way in). I told them that they can get their PR this way. Then they can study what they really want to study AFTER.

Oh, they will buy some houses as well as hey are all wealthy. Poor people can’t afford to send heir kids abroad for study.

The whole world is following this route. Hence the skyrocketing housing prices.

#148 Condo Guy on 05.05.16 at 11:45 am

#85 BS

condo guy on 05.04.16 at 7:34 pm

here is an example of the insanity in yvr

we are looking for a 2 bedrooms condo. we found a nice 875 square foot condo in burnaby/brentwood assessed at 400k and listed for 468.

we offered 520k. the condo had 20 offers and sold for 600k.

welcome to vancouver

—————————————————————–

You do realize you are part of the reason it is insane. A rational person would not be bidding $520K on a condo assessed at $400K. The condo is probably worth $200k. Just be glad there are people even dumber than you.

—————————————————————–

The problem is you need a place to live. Now we have a one bedroom appartment less than 600 Square foot and we just had a baby. Now I know the market is bound to correct but I have been knowing that since 2005… I was wrong, will I be wrong for another 10 year… well maybe. Now should I rent a 2 bed and pay 2000$ a month or try to look for a somewhat cheap 2 bedroom. Put 100 down and pay around 2000$ per month.

We make over 250K per year, and have around 800K net worth… we could load up and buy house… no problem. but all we need is a second bedroom and that what you need to do in this city to have 2 bedrooms

#149 Bond Junkie on 05.05.16 at 12:02 pm

The real losers in the Ft.Mac fiasco are the bond/equity holders of Intact Insurance (and they can afford it!). Always think in the 3rd derivative. It’s never about what’s right in front of you…

Glad to hear you’re back on top SM.

#150 Smudgekin on 05.05.16 at 12:06 pm

Ft. Macs literally a crash & burn. First with oil prices. Now with the fire. Can’t help but wonder if it’s providential – punishment for all those who jumped on the bandwagon of greed. The raping of the land and the tar pools.

Regardless Canada, be grateful you have a Trudeau and not a Trump. As president Trump sits on a toilet called Congress he’ll ram so much through he’ll block it. All those presently eating his discharge will drown in the backup.

#151 WUL on 05.05.16 at 12:21 pm

Garth:

If I may and just for you, a dog refugee story.

As I boarded Suncor’s lovely Bombardier Challenger 890 jet at midnight last night with the other refugees at the Firebag aerodrome, I had my choice of seats. I avoided the wailing babies.

There was a limit on the number of pet crates that could go in the luggage hold so that human luggage could be loaded so about 15 dogs were brought into the cabin.

What do I get in the seats in front of me? A baying, whining, slobbering and farting 150 pound Mastiff.

Fortunately that waddling slob disembarked in YEG where he belongs.

I will be forever grateful to Suncor for having housed me, fed me and transported me back to my family in YYC but I will never fly that crap airline again!!

;} ;}

Once my nerves settle down, I will return here restricted to all matters financial, real estate and rodeo cowboys.

There are fires 3 blocks from my office and 5 blocks from my rental in Fort Mac this morning. Once the fire jumped the Athabasca River, I knew we were hooped.

Fortunately, at Easter, I digitized my 40 years of family photos and between grabbing the memory stick and my wedding ring, I have my treasures with me.

Thanks Hon. Big Heart.

WUL

#152 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 05.05.16 at 12:35 pm

for all u ppl who think the US election is a ‘sure thing’, how much $ are you betting? after all, there’s nothing better than ‘sure thing’ money right? I believe SM put his money where his opinions are. how about u pretenders? or is your opinion as worthless as your bet? lol

#153 Ace Goodheart on 05.05.16 at 12:42 pm

RE: “The flames ripping through Fort Mac this week seem symbolic. What was once the nation’s pound-for-pound most ridiculously expensive real estate market is now smouldering – and in absolutely the wrong way. What a poignant reminder for everyone how all recent assumptions can be turned on their head.”

Don’t agree with this being used in this way. I know you probably didn’t mean it, but this disaster and tragedy in Fort Mac should not be used as a metaphor. I think this is inappropriate and uncalled for. There is a real human tragedy going on there right now and the people need our support, financial and otherwise, not comments of that nature on blogs.

Get serious. There’s nothing inappropriate in that comment. Plus I have included information on assisting Fort Mac victims which I am sure will result in a considerable amount of money being donated. What did you do, other than try to be morally superior? — Garth

#154 Dana Samuel on 05.05.16 at 12:58 pm

I have a 25 year old cousin that works in a 4 employee, small store here in rural Ontario making $12.75 an hour. He works 6 days a week 12 hour days.

He makes about $57,000 gross a year and after paying all his income taxes, C.P.P., E.I, bills, expenses etc. he puts $900 every 2 weeks in his bank account.

He maxed out all his RRSP’s and TFSA’s over the last 7 years, $130,000 in their now. He also has a paid off 5 year old truck, no debts of any kind and a reserve fund of $50,000.

He can’t stand staying home doing nothing and losing income.

#155 Toronto Dweller on 05.05.16 at 1:08 pm

#128 IHCTD9
“One thing I wish I did do differently was save at an absolutely savage rate when I was younger. At 43, I now feel it’s likely that I’ll have to bail on my career before 50. This is mainly due to the state of my industry in Canada, and my expectations that it won’t be long before competition by other out of work folks in my field will eventually drive the compensation down to where it was 20 years ago. The process is already underway.”

Agree on saving part, and I am in my early 30’s, plus paying off debt (credit cards and such) as fast as possible.
There is a dearth of middle class paying jobs due to labour market becoming truly global, either being outsourced or replaced with person, usually young and inexperience willing to do the job for much lower rate. Happened to me when I worked construction and in security business, and in proverbial office environment. I think the best bet is to fly solo for now if you can afford it and leverage up on your skill set and become a consultant or a contractor.

#156 Mark on 05.05.16 at 1:42 pm

“he goes into hiding when he’s wrong (which is often and always) and will stop posting for a bit. it’s just a defence mechanism his psychology has devolved from being wrong so often”

Not true troll. I’m here, and definitely not wrong. Just very busy. I won’t be around for much of the next 2-3 weeks either. So please stop with the constant lies. Pretty sure Garth warned you to stop being so abusive a few weeks ago.

#157 Mark in Perth on 05.05.16 at 1:51 pm

Thanks, Garth, for a carefully considered and powerful post.
I was born in Edmonton, know how quickly cold winter can turn to dry, hot summer.
I live in Australia now, few years back an entire town (Maryville) was wiped out by a bushfire. When I saw the pictures of Ft Mac it was just the same.
I guess the point is (1) no where to hide when trouble comes, (2) you find out who you are and who your friends are.
The good people of Alberta are showing who they are.

#158 CJBob on 05.05.16 at 1:52 pm

#61 Okanagan Man on 05.04.16 at 9:23 pm

Perhaps some 2010 to 2013 graphs would help explain….?______________
Yes, but only if they are filled with dots and dashes and nearly impossible to read.

#159 CJBob on 05.05.16 at 1:54 pm

#129 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 05.05.16 at 9:27 am

he goes into hiding when he’s wrong (which is often and always) and will stop posting for a bit….
___________________________
I predict Mark will be back and explain the drop in the CAD $ is not real, it’s just sales mix.

#160 LP on 05.05.16 at 2:04 pm

#153 Dana Samuel on 05.05.16 at 12:58 pm
************************

Boy, that’s some new math there!

F68ON

#161 Damifino on 05.05.16 at 2:22 pm

#85 BS

“A rational person would not be bidding $520K on a condo assessed at $400K. The condo is probably worth $200k”
———————————–

Perhaps not, but…

At the exact instant the deal closed on the condo, it was indeed worth $600K. Minutes or months later that number would likely be very different. That’s nothing more than a tussle between risk and reward.

From a strictly monetary point of view, all things are worth precisely what someone else will pay for them at a particular moment in time. Whether that amount is ‘too much’ or ‘too little’ is an entirely different issue.

#162 Love my Kia on 05.05.16 at 2:33 pm

125 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 8:24 am

#104 Love my Kia on 05.04.16 at 11:59 pm

Socialism will be their only chance.

__________________________________________

LOL!

Do they have a sickle and hammer spotlight to shine up into the sky like the bat signal?

Or is it more like Superman where socialism will just swoop down amongst the helpless to save the day?
***********************************

Of course not!

Help will be in the form of money Rona Ambrose is begging for (and getting) in question period today. How ironic.

#163 jess on 05.05.16 at 2:38 pm

” Thelluson’s will was contested in litigation that lasted 62 years, from his death in 1797 to 1859.”

rule of 72

Compound Interest, exponential growth and the 2008 Meltdown
April 4, 2011
https://blog.p2pfoundation.net/compound-interest-exponential-growth-and-the-2008-meltdown/2011/04/04

#164 Mark on 05.05.16 at 2:51 pm

“I predict Mark will be back and explain the drop in the CAD $ is not real, it’s just sales mix.”

The CAD$ (USD$, gold, silver, etc.) are about as homogenous as asset classes can possibly be. Hence, there is no such thing as “the sales mix” for such asset classes as they’re all identical within their category.

After such a violent run in the CAD$/USD$ pair upwards, some sort of correction is entirely to be expected and not unusual. If you can trade it, great, but most can’t and shouldn’t even bother trying.

#165 Nagraj on 05.05.16 at 2:58 pm

If God’s preferred chastisement for maniacal behaviour in Fort Mac is wildfire, then Vancouver is – splash – going to fall into the ocean, and Tronna gits bubonic plague. Why not.

From here – where there’s horses and buggies, no crime, and sheep may safely graze – the Fort Mac fire looks like a Hollywood disaster movie. For all the frustration and loss (and despair) it’s amazing that this mass evacuation resulted in no reports of fatalities (not even a heart attack) – must be a hardy lot.

People do what they can under difficult circumstances and circumstances are always, to one degree or another, difficult; when they become overwhelming, help is in order. Our gracious host has done right.

(Who would’ve thought a week ago that Fort Mac would be burned?)

#166 Terry on 05.05.16 at 3:02 pm

Interesting that Trump won!

#167 Godth on 05.05.16 at 3:02 pm

#130 The American on 05.05.16 at 9:42 am

That’s some democracy you folks have going on down there, it’s standing naked for all to see these days. Good thing you’ve taken it upon yourselves to spread this hypocrisy and freedumb around the globe at the barrel of a gun. I really hope Trump wins, I really do – you get the government you deserve. Has there ever been an “election” in the USA where two Republicans represent the “choice” before?
http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/35904-election-2016-let-s-drop-acid-and-have-a-presidential-race

#168 Godth on 05.05.16 at 3:06 pm

#156 Mark in Perth on 05.05.16 at 1:51 pm

Go check out the not so great barrier reef these days, same difference.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-05/stunning-dash-cam-footage-inside-albertas-apocalyptic-inferno

Nature Bats Last
http://guymcpherson.com/

#169 Freeman on 05.05.16 at 3:22 pm

YES GARTH, YOU HIT THE NAIL RIGHT ON THE HEAD with that statement !!! RIGHT ON !!!!

Quote:

( (“It’s a mania. A social obsession. Higher prices beget higher prices, once everybody expects them to go higher still. The level of risk now associated with Vancouver and entire Lower Mainland market is akin to those endless miles of tinder-dry trees waiting to combust in poor Alberta.
But the insanity does not stop there. The GTA and much of southern Ontario is living through the same suspension of disbelief – a time in which most people come to believe the unbelievable, to sacrifice realism and embrace a fad. Some of us have seen it before, with houses in the Eighties or dot-coms in the late Nineties – a widespread conviction it’s different this time, that a new normal’s descended.”))

#170 Godth on 05.05.16 at 3:29 pm

#164 Nagraj on 05.05.16 at 2:58 pm
skip to 21:40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRW45eaw28g

As the Artic ice melts isostatic rebound is causing the ring of fire to light up. Only the coast of the USA and Canada has been unaffected recently. The pressure must be building towards something significant. Who knows what Vancouver will look like in the near enough future – if only I had a crystal ball…but some things just follow.

#171 Brazil ex-pat on 05.05.16 at 3:41 pm

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.16 at 8:15 am
@#66 Brazil exPat
“We are going to witness the death of the career politician around the world. Get ready. A new day is coming…..”
******************************************

Donald Trump.
An obnoixious man born with a silver spoon in his mouth that believes his own public relations braggadoccio.
A man who threatens violence if he doesnt reach office.
Not a great harbinger of “democracy” in the forthcoming elections.
When I see blacks, latinos, women AND card carrying Republlicans all lining up to voice their disgust with Trump…….

Hillary Clinton will mop the floor with him and when he has completely destroyed the last vestiges of the Republican Party…..then yes…..a new day will come.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Oh just you wait. Trump has so many bombs he can drop about Hilary and her ilk that it will make Trump look like a choir boy.

#172 Edward Ing on 05.05.16 at 3:42 pm

Where is the store Garth? I bicycle up to Caledon and need a place for coffee and ice cream.

http://www.BelfountainStore.ca. — Garth

#173 Blacksheep on 05.05.16 at 3:51 pm

The American # 130,

“Get a grip, people. This is what I’ve been saying. The Electoral College is NEVER going to allow Trump as President. But, for now, it is indeed fantastic entertainment.”
———————————————-
The non-elected, electoral college, is going to decide the outcome?

So your telling us the will of the people, really means shit?

But didn’t our ancestors sacrifice their lives, to maintain our democracy?

Get out and vote, or you’ve got no right to complain?

Na…just yank’in your chain, I always new democracy was bullshit.

“The electoral college does not provide a straightforward process for selecting the president. Instead, it can be extraordinarily complex and has the potential to undo the people’s will at many points in the long journey from the selection of electors to counting their votes in Congress.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)

Queue the George Carlin video….

#174 Brazil ex-pat on 05.05.16 at 3:51 pm

#93 MSM-Free Zone on 05.04.16 at 10:54 pm
#71 MF on 05.04.16 at 9:45 pm
“…..They view the new progressive left as wanting to destroy America…….”
_________________________

Apparently, Americans have short memories.

The U.S. already blew its financial brains out (along with the rest of the world’s) in 2008 under a deregulation-friendly, right-wing, Republican ‘less-government-is-best-government’.

We all saw how that movie ended.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The movie is not over. The banks have just as much power to take your money and lose it in risky investments as ever. Nothing has changed. It only appears that way.

#175 Kootenay Ma on 05.05.16 at 3:55 pm

So, Garth et al,

The politician in AB yesterday that opined that the Fort Mac fire was “karmic” was right? but really should have indicated “Real Estate” karma, not “Oil”?

Hadn’t quite come to that until I tuned in here, but hey, it kinda makes sense…..

Me, Im so proud of all the people taking care of themselves and each other. Like the Calgary flood, the Fort Mac experience reminds us of what is real, and WOW does it ever show what Albertans are made of. Resiliance and Heart. And reminds the rest of us we are too, Fellow Canadians

#176 Kootenay Ma on 05.05.16 at 4:07 pm

On another note:

This morning, my Grade 10 son mentioned, as I drove him to school, that he had ‘heard’ that ‘the Government’ had decided to raise up oil prices a bit ‘for a while’ to make things a little easier for people….

But, he couldn’t quite remember where he had ‘heard’ this….

Or quite exactly what he had ‘heard’….

I told him that usually things weren’t quite that simple and that likely many factors, global included, influenced oil prices and exchange rates, and that I was pretty sure ‘the Government’ couldn’t just decree that….

And I thought to myself, hmmm this smart boy needs a liitle more ‘economics’ and maybe a little less ‘gaming after school’

I-Yi-Yi !!!

#177 Shawn on 05.05.16 at 4:08 pm

Buffett – What Has He Done Right Lately?

#143 Lillooet, BC on 05.05.16 at 11:16 am said:

Buffet bought IBM shares.
Time will tell if he is correct.

Admire him all the same though.

************************************
That is big of you to still admire him despite that IBM shares which he intends to hold for many years are down for now and might indeed have been a mistake.

I guess maybe you considered that the stock price of Berkshire is up well over 10,000 fold, that is well over one million percent since he took over the company in 1965 when you decided to still admire him despite that “he bought IBM”.

It may sound like fawning but having studied the man, I am 100% convinced that Buffett is a true genius. His investment skills are beyond question. He is an incredibly smart thinker about economics. He is an all around nice guy. He is beloved by everyone close to him. He is a paragon of virtue and a fount of knowledge.

I challenge anyone who has really studied his record to conclude any different.

#178 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 4:25 pm

#153 Dana Samuel on 05.05.16 at 12:58 pm
I have a 25 year old cousin that works in a 4 employee, small store here in rural Ontario making $12.75 an hour. He works 6 days a week 12 hour days.

He makes about $57,000 gross a year and after paying all his income taxes, C.P.P., E.I, bills, expenses etc. he puts $900 every 2 weeks in his bank account.

He maxed out all his RRSP’s and TFSA’s over the last 7 years, $130,000 in their now. He also has a paid off 5 year old truck, no debts of any kind and a reserve fund of $50,000.

He can’t stand staying home doing nothing and losing income
———–

I know a couple mid 20’s tradesmen that are doing the same kind of thing. Boatloads of hours and OT/DT.

This kind of thing may be the new way of winning for the youth. The big city wages are not much better than rural wages due to high immigration these days, but the cost of living and shelter are insane. It was not worth it a decade ago already. Small cities have a lot to offer, especially if you can land a public service job.

I love to hear stories like this, mainly because I see it happening with my own eyes and it puts a smile on my face.

Some of these single small town millennials put all previous generations to shame when it comes to saving.

#179 jess on 05.05.16 at 4:33 pm

=====================

federal reserve media center
May 3, 2016
NSFR -net stability funding ratio /standardized metrics

Qualified Financial Contracts or QFCs
http://tinyurl.com/hdwx2aj
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/open-board-meeting-transcript-20160503.pdf

#180 Dana Samuel on 05.05.16 at 4:34 pm

To LP

This is the problem with Canadians these days. They don’t do the math new or old.

Here is the math in case you can’t do it yourself. The first 44 hours is straight time, $12.75*44=$561+28 hours time and half, overtime comes to 28*1.5=42*12.75=$535.50. These are all weekly numbers.

Don’t forget vacation time on 72 hours which is $918*4%=$36.72. These are all weekly numbers.

This comes out to $1,133.22 per week*50 weeks a year $56,661 gross income per year.

Now, his income taxes, C.P.P, E.I. was $15,000 last year deducted from his paycheck $600 per 2 week period, bi-weekly for 50 working weeks or 25 bi-weekly pay periods.

He made his $10,200 maximum RRSP contribution as he does every year 18% of each year’s gross taxable income.

He got a $3,200 income tax refund for 2015 tax year. He has no debt of any kind, no car payments, no mortgage, credit cards, payday loans etc. etc.

You see he did the math and saw it was a ripoff to be in debt to one’s eyeballs.

So, basically after his rent, food, clothing, gas, car insurance, car maintenance and repairs, internet, yearly vacation and other expenses it came to $21,000 a year.

This is real math not new math L.P. These are all annual figures.

$56,661 Gross taxable income
$15,000 deductions from bi-weekly paychecks
-$21,000 living expenses etc.
=$20,661 net after taxes
+$3,200 RRSP income tax refund
=$23,861 Total net savings

The $23,861 total net savings for 2015 is a mix of an RRSP contribution of $10,200+$5,500 TFSA+$8,161 savings in reserve fund.

The $130,000 in RRSP’s and TFSA’s is made up of contributions over 7 years with interest accrued.

The $50,000 reserve fund is also made up of annual savings contributed and interest included over those 7 years.

This is math how he has $180,000 over 7 years.

#181 Dana Samuel on 05.05.16 at 5:06 pm

To IHCTD9

Glad to hear that you understand where we are coming from. Sounds like you are doing the same with more aggressive saving, investing and debt reduction, debt avoidance as much as possible.

Our family has been socking away thousands a month for at least the last 20+ years. We are in our early 50’s and have RRSP’s, spousal RRSP’s, TFSA’s, RESP’s, LIRA’s, non-registered portfolio of $1,100,000.

We will a little more then double this to $2,400,000 with monthly savings, RRSP’s, investments and growth, compound interest over the next 9 to 10 years or so.

#182 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 5:08 pm

#154 Toronto Dweller on 05.05.16 at 1:08 pm

Agree on saving part, and I am in my early 30’s, plus paying off debt (credit cards and such) as fast as possible.
There is a dearth of middle class paying jobs due to labour market becoming truly global, either being outsourced or replaced with person, usually young and inexperience willing to do the job for much lower rate. Happened to me when I worked construction and in security business, and in proverbial office environment. I think the best bet is to fly solo for now if you can afford it and leverage up on your skill set and become a consultant or a contractor.

——————-

It was a long process, but at least in manufacturing, just about any middle manager that made decent money has been let go over the last decade, to be replaced by immigrants who work for less. None of the buyers you talk to these days can make any decisions. They always have to check with someone before they do anything.

If I were starting out today, I would be concentrating on low cost living at reasonable wages, and just throw the idea of long term high paying employment right out the window.

The only exception would be chasing a government job which would be guaranteed to yield raises forever or until the government is utterly broke…

#183 Renter's Revenge! on 05.05.16 at 5:09 pm

#179 Dana Samuel on 05.05.16 at 4:34 pm
“Here is the math in case you can’t do it yourself.”

Boom! Math Smackdown! LOL

OMG, a 25 year old with $180,000 in savings. I didn’t start working as an engineer until I was 26. The opportunity cost on that is going to be huge.

#184 Bottoms_Up on 05.05.16 at 5:20 pm

#181 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 5:08 pm
———————–
Government employees do not get perpetual raises. They get raises for a few years as they gain experience, then they are capped. They have to continually prove merit and be promoted to higher ranks in order to secure “perpetual raises”.

In fact, I don’t think that someone like you could actually make the cut to secure “perpetual raises” in government….(one attribute is being diplomatic)

#185 Bottoms_Up on 05.05.16 at 5:24 pm

#176 Shawn on 05.05.16 at 4:08 pm
——————
Right, and Buffet knows global warming is good for the insurance industry (think Fort Mac), and bad for humanity, but your non-believers will never be convinced that there is such a thing.

#186 Bottoms_Up on 05.05.16 at 5:27 pm

#175 Kootenay Ma on 05.05.16 at 4:07 pm
—————
The fact you have a 15 or 16 yr old that actually pays some attention to things such as oil prices and “the government” is a good sign. Another 10 years and he might start reading quality news sites and engaging on Garth’s blog!!

#187 Vundo on 05.05.16 at 5:29 pm

@153 Dana: how is your cousin’s social life working 6×12’s? How much time does that leave for dogs, kids, girlfriend, wife, beer league hockey, or whatever else a man could spend his time on aside from job and sleep? What he is doing might produce some nice numbers, but it sure as hell does not sound like living.

#188 Bottoms_Up on 05.05.16 at 5:32 pm

#160 Damifino on 05.05.16 at 2:22 pm
——————–
Let’s take that one step further. Things are worth what someone is willing to pay, and that includes willingness to take on debt and ability to secure financing.

#189 Metaxa on 05.05.16 at 5:35 pm

Buffett also still lives in the three bedroom rancher he bought decades ago in a city without the real estate crazies running around. If I recall he paid less than $40,000 for it, is now a brazillionaire and still lives there.

Definitely one of my dictates: it is better to be rich than to appear to be rich.

Want to know another? In the words of that great philosopher Louis CK: The only time you need be interested in another man’s bowl is to ensure he has enough in it.

Balanced and diversified applies to more than a portfolio and golly, some of this group here really should ponder on that a fair bit.

#190 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 6:10 pm

#180 Dana Samuel on 05.05.16 at 5:06 pm
To IHCTD9

Glad to hear that you understand where we are coming from. Sounds like you are doing the same with more aggressive saving, investing and debt reduction, debt avoidance as much as possible.

Our family has been socking away thousands a month for at least the last 20+ years. We are in our early 50’s and have RRSP’s, spousal RRSP’s, TFSA’s, RESP’s, LIRA’s, non-registered portfolio of $1,100,000.

We will a little more then double this to $2,400,000 with monthly savings, RRSP’s, investments and growth, compound interest over the next 9 to 10 years or so.
——-

Haha, I only wish to have done as well as you. I got started a little late due to school debt, and frankly – not really caring too much about savings. We saved moderately from late 20’s on. We have done well mainly due to lucky market timing that was purely incidental, and dead consistent and ever increasing contributions. We keep the cost of living low, which is my specialty :). With any luck, we’ll just crack a mill come retirement.

I love to hear folks employing “plan B”. NOT getting a PHD, NOT getting into debt 100g’s at 25 years old, NOT working an internship for free, NOT waiting a day to earn and save.

A kid at 25 with 180 g’s socked away and no debt is outstanding. By the time a MD gets out of school at 100g’s in debt and finally starts making some money, this young guy you know will be sneaking up on a half mill if he can up his wage a little and keep up the momentum. By the time the MD is debt free, the kid might be at a cool Million by 40.

The cost and time penalty of a top rung education is slowly delaying, and therefore eroding the eventual benefit of same to a pretty questionable extent these days.

#191 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 6:57 pm

#183 Bottoms_Up on 05.05.16 at 5:20 pm
#181 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 5:08 pm
———————–
Government employees do not get perpetual raises. They get raises for a few years

———-

Cops, FF’s, and Teachers do. Sure they take a wage “freeze” now and then, but they expect that to be made up when “times [tax revenue] are good again”.

Cops, FireFighters, and Teachers sure as hell aren’t capped. They are still paying some of these folks “retention bonuses” even though the line up to get into these positions stretches from here to China.

T2 just gave them all their banked sick days back FFS…

I’ll agree with you as far as clerks at Service Ontario goes, but no way when it comes to the same usual suspects appearing on the ever expanding sunshine list every single year since its inception.

#192 IHCTD9 on 05.05.16 at 7:07 pm

#186 Vundo on 05.05.16 at 5:29 pm
@153 Dana: how is your cousin’s social life working 6×12’s
———-

Probably not any worse than someone working on an MD no?

He’s got no worries, women (and men) like money, and the MD will still probably have craploads of debt when buddy at the supermarket cracks a million.

He will at 40, have his choice of women 30 on up as long as he is at least average everywhere else.

This kid is one in 10 million kids…

#193 The American on 05.05.16 at 10:10 pm

Goth and Blacksheep, no offense, but you both miss the point. I’m offering you the way the system works and ALWAYS HAS. The problem is YOU both do not understand it (as most Canadians do not). Also, on a final note, Godth, at lest Americans are represented by a majority rule. In Canada, there is NEVER a majority who is represented. That’s even sadder. Period.

#194 Kootenay Ma on 05.06.16 at 1:46 am

Bottom’s Up #185

Great insight there !

I had not quite come to that yet.

Thanks :)D

I think I will turn him on to Garth’s blog sooner.

#195 Snoopy on 05.06.16 at 9:27 am

Variable discounts are back. Small national lenders are now at prime -0.50%.

A friend agent recommends I keep renting, but tells me his coworkers don’t see any slowdown in Toronto realestate buyer appetite.

The upward momentum in demand is unbelievable.

The downward pressure on rates is even more unreal.

#196 Doug Saunders on 05.06.16 at 12:19 pm

IHCTD9

This kid in his early 50’s will have at least $2,000,000 and $4,000,000 by his early 60’s so he is on his way to being financially successful and in great financial shape.

By the way, consumer having a debt mountain that never stops growing is no living either.