Bob’s a cop in Metro. A detective, actually. Prides himself on being absolutely meticulous, ethical, researched, by-the-book. “Gut means nothing,” he once told me. “I follow the evidence.” You sound like a bad cop TV show, I said. Bob looked like he wanted to arrest me.
Anyway, when it comes to investing his gut wins. Two years ago he loaded up his and Cheryl’s non-registered account and a TFSA with a single stock. Apple. “These individuals will be changing the world as it is presently constituted,” he told me in cop-talk. “We will be there.” Despite a huge concentration risk in having a couple hundred grand in one stock, they did well, seeing shares rise from just under $100 to about $130. Sell, I said. Take your gain, diversify and retain a little if you want.
Bob refused. Two reasons. His fav stock was gonna travel to the sun making him rich, and second, there was no way he was going to pay capital gains tax on his 30% increase. “That’s a crime.”
Well, you know what happened. Apple peaked at $132, toppled into the 90s, regained some ground and yesterday was creamed for a 6% loss. In a single hour of trading, this company shed $43 billion in capitalization after a lousy earnings report and (worse) losing the faith of the markets. As great as the Apple guys are, they’ve apparently run out of juice. Smart phone sales have plunged, the iWatch is a toy and many people now believe the stock will turn into a doorstop – a dividend-producing monolith no longer cool or spiritual. And no big shareholder profits.
But this is not about Apple. It’s about investing. Bob is now underwater by a buck or two. His 30% capital gain has disappeared and he’s gone two years without anything to show for it. Now he’s afraid to sell because he does not want to take any loss and deludes himself the stock will shoot higher. It’s a guy thing.
Holding individual securities is not investing. It’s gambling. On Wednesday, for example, while Apple was being chomped, the US market as a whole nudged higher. The exchange-traded fund called XSP, which owns the 500 biggest American companies, actually gained on the day while Apple investors were wailing. Once again being diversified was absolutely the best defence against unexpected events, like a falling fruit.
And while we’re talking portfolios, make sure you stay balanced, as well. As I’ve advocated, having a 40% weighting in safe fixed-income assets, and 60% in growth-oriented stuff (like XSP) is a sound long-term strategy. The fixed portion should be roughly half bonds (government, corporate and high-yield) and half preferreds. This will pay you an income stream (interest and dividends) of roughly 3.5% – which means the growth assets don’t need to work so hard to get you to an overall decent return.
Now some visitors moan about the ground preferred shares lost last year when the Bank of Canada dropped interest rates twice. Being rate-sensitive, they shed capital value even as they continued to churn out a nice 5% dividend. Naturally, 2015 and early 2016 were giant buying opportunities. The US Fed raised its rate in December and will do so twice more before the end of the year. Canadian five-year bond yields have doubled since the winter. And the price of preferreds has swollen by 15%. There is quite a bit more to come – plus the 5% dividend and the tax credit it brings.
You should maintain a fixed-income component to your portfolio because (as stated above) this is not about gambling. Rather investors should be looking to reduce volatility and motor along with annualized returns of 6-7% over the decades to come before the money is needed. Having bonds – even with low yields – means overall portfolio swings are minimized, along with your emotions. A 60/40 blend produced an average 6.3% over the last six years, two of which (2011, the US debt ceiling crisis and 2015, the oil collapse) sucked. As it turned out, Bob would have been far wiser to creep along with balance and diversification than to throw everything on the sexy single stock.
So where from here?
Things are definitely looking up. Oil has topped forty-five bucks for the first time in ages. The dollar has spiked to 79 cents US, the TSX has recorded gains so far this year double those of US markets, and young Justin will spend more money than you ever imagined over the next four years, pushing liquidity into the system, prompting the Bank of Canada to move next year and rewarding investors who stay the course. Donald Trump will lose. Global growth will stay positive. The US recovery – which created 2.5 million new jobs last year – will continue apace. Adele will hopefully have another baby and retire. It’s all good.
Investing is easy. Just don’t think you’re smarter than everyone else.
153 comments ↓
It’s so refreshing to see someone honestly say: “My gut is an idiot”. I couldn’t agree more. Of course, this character was obviously not walking the walk.
There are known knowns, known unknowns, unknown knowns… but it’s the unknown unknowns that’ll bite you eventually. The rub is — you’ll never know what they are until they hit you.
As long as Im smarter than Brazil ExPat………Im happy
Yup, yup, yup, yup and yup. There are far worse singers than Adele to pick on!
this free money info you put out garth
is very useful and kind
Holding individual securities is not gambling Garth. Bob just got greedy. Like all those Nortel investors that were going to retire because it was going to $250. Trees don’t grow to the sky and part of investing is knowing when to sell. Everything is a trade. Just have to remember that.
ETFs also have their cons. Buy a piece of 100 good companies and have to take the other 400 crap ones with it.
A while ago I was reading a part of Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor where he was talking about General Electric a whole bunch. It occurred to me that today’s Apple will be tomorrow’s GE.
And that’s why I always put my.. oh wait..
Agree on all points except Trumps definite failure Gartho. Crazier things have happened. We threw you out, why wouldn’t America throw that nutjob in?
I bought there was gona be 4 increases in 2016?
Oh 2 now ? Oh 1 now? Oh none in 2016.
Well said Gartho… though you seem not to be on the Trump Train…. Unpredictability. I ooze it..Just think how much I will scare our enemies with unpredictability and the big RED nuke button. 8 months and it’s all mine.
Hey idiot, you’ve been saying it’s been going down for 3 years. Now it’s just stagnated? What happened to the sales mix lol.
poor guy
Bill M the Finance dude was on the Local Corpse Radio here in Vandelusional yesterday.
When asked about foreign money affecting the RE market here he indicated that until we know the market drivers it is conjecture .
He went on to indicate Stats Can was provided specific funding to do some fact finding on RE which would help guide next actions.
Garth,
-what would Stats Can be looking at on behalf of Finance?
-where would they get the data?
-what would be the likely reporting timelines for The Big M?
Then what? Jacking Interest Rates aren’t a tool he can use at this juncture…………….
How is the store opening going? No blog update since April 23rd. Are you in freak out mode?
The US recovery – which created 2.5 million new jobs last year – will continue apace.
the US is BOOMING girls and boys!!
Everytime, I go with my gut…it expands.
Good Blog Garth!
Apple = RCA
Find out what happened to them.
Trump won’t lose
from the other day:
“The lazy, careless, self-centered, and entitled who accomplish little in life deserve exactly what they get….
goldman (ge capital )is now the gs bank?
So should he lose the “title” Lord (pension robber?)
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/26/bhs-collapse-sir-philip-green-must-repay-400m-pounds-or-lose-knighthood
the big short update
https://www.propublica.org/article/why-havent-bankers-been-punished-just-read-these-insider-sec-emails
Ironic that the cop lost out on AAPL, seeing that it was law enforcement’s much-publicized ability to Crack the iphone’s encryption that caused sales to crater: suddenly everyone decided their wundergadgets were vulnerable.
Oh well, the company still has lots to offer in the digital media space, maybe it’ll coast on that for a while. Until they invent a new, non-backward compatible connector.
Why a maturing Apple isn’t necessarily a bad Apple as the company plans its next move
http://business.financialpost.com/investing/why-a-maturing-apple-isnt-necessarily-a-bad-apple-as-the-company-plans-its-next-move
And a technical question: why would a capital gain be taxable if the shares were in a TFSA?
And someone turned the light on…
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/cmhc-warns-vancouvers-housing-market-becoming-too-frothy/article29770023/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe
“Adele will hopefully have another baby and retire. ”
====================================
I second that…
“Donald Trump will lose. ”
===================================
Who is he going to lose to? Do Americans really want another Clinton term in office ??
I generally agree with Mr.Turner’s portfolio. My investments closely matches it. However the AAPL stock that the gentleman held paid a dividend for the years he’s held it. And volatility is part of owning any equity.
In big markets like the US diversifying is sound. Internationally, the same. However holding 17-20% of your portfolio in a broad canadian equity ETF just doesn’t do it for me. Rob Carrick’s two minute portfolio posted on globe and mail beats the TSX S&P consistently. Carrick’s portfolio holds the two largest capitalized dividend payers in the 10 sectors of the TSX. Diversified in the smaller Canadian market, dividends, and no MER!
a 6% dip is a buying opportunity. Apple will not die because not as many people upgraded phones in one quarter.
Cops, Teachers and Doctors always thinking they are experts in something other than what they trained for.
I agree with Smokie here, the only way Trump will lose is if it’s like Nov 22, 1963 Dallas Texas, it will be DejaVu all over again….
He will not lose, he is a creation of SkyNet, the same SkyNet that created “We are change” in 2008. What did change? Nothing, the bums are poorer and the rich much richer..
BTW, no comment on the fact that there are no filthy rich americans in the Panama Papers…not even one. My god, this was supposed to be a leak, not a dirty C”Y”A operation :-)
Why no love for TIPS or inflation linked bonds?
The fixed portion should be roughly half bonds (government, corporate and high-yield) and half preferreds.
#18 Smoking Man on 04.27.16 at 7:07 pm
Trump won’t lose
—
They better start preparing a slot for him on Mt. Rushmore..
Ann Coulter @AnnCoulter 6h6 hours ago
GREATEST FOREIGN POLICY SPEECH SINCE WASHINGTON’S FAREWELL ADDRESS.
If Trump wins either New York or Pennsylvania he wins the election. The other red states will carry him.
A lot of people thought Reagan wouldn’t win either and he won nearly every state–even those that were heavily Democratic.
Quite right, our stock went down significantly as well. I am not particularly worried long term. Many NASDAQ stocks dropped, particularly technology. I think AMZN is probably due for a serious downturn given its astronomical rise (on paltry net revenues).
Despite the drop, the portfolio is up. Preferreds balanced out the decline nicely. I don’t agree with everything Garth says, but I buy his advice on building a portfolio. A good value investor can beat a balanced portfolio by scooping out undervalued companies, but that takes time to do the research.
Canada felt the love when Bill Clinton was President of America….Hillary might not be as cozy with us.
Trump views Canada in a positive frame as it is possible he has not yet noticed T2 is now on deck.
If Trump unleashes the big money on America that border will not contain it and Canada will again be “the greatest country next to America.”
All the people with Bank of America stock will be in the same boat shortly before the U.S. election and it will be far worst than Apple’s story after the election. If you can’t pick one stock you should NOT be in the stock market EVER!! Forward thinking and ahead of the curve. If you can’t do either one or have the knowledge to do either one consider alternate investments.
Just back from a road trip visiting Nashville,Memphis,New Orleans and Florida. Saw a bumper sticker whilst driving through Alabama.
It said if you want to stop your bitchin don’t vote for the bitch which had picture of Hilary in the top corner. Those rednecks don’t hold there punches.
My gut feeling is that Hilary will take it in a squeaker against Donald.
Why would he pay cap gain tax if invested within TFSA? I misunderstood something?
Not what I said. Most funds in non-reg. Focus. — Garth
90% of so called traders lose $! They let greedy emotions get in the way of taking a healthy profit, why would a cop invest in $APPL? Way out of his league & to much invested to get so little back, now(having a cop mentality) kicks in and he cant back down and admit he was wrong & take a loss, but also retain his original investment! What a shame but very typical, he like many others will hold(they are called “bagholders”) with hope that 1 day it will bounce back & even double, again what a shame! Garth a crappy 3.5% return is not good @ all dude! Party on Garth!
Did anyone read Gary Marr’s and CMHC’s
assessment of Vancouver housing in the National Post today? Are these guys on opiates? Must be really good stash.
“And while we’re talking portfolios, make sure you stay balanced, as well.”
^^ ^^
Well said Garth. Be balanced like me. I’m balanced. I’m the best. I’m super 007 Freedom First!
So Bob hates paying taxes. I guess he sees how taxpayer funds are abused on a daily basis. It is a crime, that’s for sure.
Friend’s 3-year-old house (bought as a new build at the 2013 peak) finally sold in Calgary today after being listed for the better part of a year.
Construction cost ~= $500k.
Sale Price = $420k – 5% Realtor Commission = $400k.
Total price loss = $100k
Apple is a decent holding….as long as it is not more than 4% of your 1MM portfolio.
No individual stock holding of mine is near 4%.
I checked my market & cash returns YTD 4.7% ok by me
Looks like ‘feeling’ the Bern’ is fading into political history bins. Trump’s next hurdle will be the convention in Cleveland. They don’t winners they don’t control. Dem’s have no worry with Hillary, she’s coin operated.
While Hillary is by far the smarter of the two presumptive candidates, but will she get elected?
Good read if you like US economics, ‘Killing the Host’ by Michael Hudson.
Hey idiot, you’ve been saying it’s been going down for 3 years. Now it’s just stagnated? What happened to the sales mix lol.
First of all, the idiot certainly isn’t me. But I have some suggestions as to who the idiot here is.
Secondly, its been stagnation in Vancouver/Toronto with the Realtors only quoting rising prices on account of the shift to the sales mix. And losses pretty much everywhere else.
See above example of the sort of loss seen on an identical house in Calgary recently.
If you’re interested in US equity ETFs other than XSP, with distribution growth along with dividend growth, there are ZUD (BMO US dividend hedged ETF), and CUD (ishares divided growers hedged ETF).
I’ve held them since 2011, and they’ve been awesome!
Plus monthly distribution. Nice.
Thanks for the great post Garth. It helps me keep my head on straight.
Bad day for cute dog photos
Had to put my beautiful Lab down today .
Thoughts are with you, Darryl. Every day was a gift. — Garth
^ sorry, meant to say held since 2013
Gee, now I’m never going to get $25 for my Apple fleece on EBay.
Way to go guys…
M41BC
No, no, no. Your advice is horribly negligent.
Your man Bob should have bought AAPL put options to insure himself against share price declines.
It’s so simple.
Yes, things going up now. I wonder, if oil prices had such a big impact on the CDN economy, what will happen when the bigger froth gets its reckoning and RE declines?
Sunshine and lolly (gagging) pups!
Advice to Bob and Cheryl…….
The Bulls get some, The Bears get some
…….and the PIGS get slaughtered!!!!!
“Yes, things going up now. I wonder, if oil prices had such a big impact on the CDN economy, what will happen when the bigger froth gets its reckoning and RE declines?”
RE going down is deflationary. Deflationary pressure tends to be positive for the value of currencies. As by definition, when a currency/economy is in deflation, money is gaining value (ie: purchasing power), not losing it.
The BoC only has limited “tools” in its toolkit to fight deflation. With how quickly the CAD$ has been going up over the past few months, they may very well be in a position to look at an additional policy rate cut at the end of May. CPI is only 1.3% YoY, and trending even lower with the rising currency.
Actually Apple stock (AAPL) is an nice parallel to the RE market in YVR and GTA. Bob is like a recent buyer.
He put all his nest egg into Apple, when stock is high and it gave him a decent return. He is the same as people buying now in high-cost RE areas, putting all their net worth into a house. They expect price to continue upward for ever. It might in the short term, but eventually when it drops you loose, like Bob.
There is a time to put all your nest egg into RE. Some Boomers did many decades ago. That time is long gone.
There was a time to put all your nest egg into Apple too. I corresponded with a fellow several years ago who said he put his entire retirement funds into Apple and was sitting tight. He bought decades ago. I think he paid somewhere around $3 a share. Don’t forget that AAPL split 7 to 1, so at $100 a share now it is equivalent to $700 in original stock. (At $130 = $910.)
Not bad for retirement. Even better than buying a house in YVR or 416 decades ago. But neither RE or Apple will give you anything remotely like that in future.
The train left the station long ago, both for APPL and Canadian RE in YVR & GTA.
For reference see:
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/apple-343797-buckingham-stock.html
Here is a cumulative returns chart. Since AAPL’s IPO to Dec. 2014 the stock is up over 21,000%! Sure beats ANY RE if you are a genius at timing and patience. And lucky!
http://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-apple-aapl/
Thank You for your blog & insights.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/retirement-health-care-generations-taxation-1.3552609
“young Justin will spend more money than you ever imagined over the next four years, ”
That’s because your buddy Steve F&$#-ed up the economy so badly by betting the farm on big oil at the expense of diversification. How’s that “energy superpower now?”
RE #42 BOOM! on 04.27.16 at 8:25 pm
I am hearing that Trump needs a miracle to win POTUS.
The numbers will not be there on election day and votes for a Democrat leader will easily eclipse the votes for Trump.
But, Trump always surprises. He has made many errors that would have crushed other candidates.
He really is Mr. Teflon.
Must be that borrowed money and deficits are the new grease and t-2 has got the wheels turning. Idea borrowed from the mighty USA.
Wait a minute! Bob’s a cop? A Metro cop? A detective? Sure hope I never get in trouble with the law, … ever, … again.
Mark on 04.27.16 at 8:26 pm
Hey idiot, you’ve been saying it’s been going down for 3 years. Now it’s just stagnated? What happened to the sales mix lol.
First of all, the idiot certainly isn’t me. But I have some suggestions as to who the idiot here is.
Secondly, its been stagnation in Vancouver/Toronto with the Realtors only quoting rising prices on account of the shift to the sales mix. And losses pretty much everywhere else.
See above example of the sort of loss seen on an identical house in Calgary recently.
//////////////////////////////////////////
Mark how much compensation each year does Adidas give you for being their pitch man?
All
Day
I
Dream
About
Sales mix…
M41BC
Well let’s be clear here…The 2nd half of 2015 was a ‘giant buying opportunity’ for Preferred’s…..
if you brought in the first half of 2015 like a lot of us did, you got creamed….
Still I’ve got a while to make up that 20% loss…..
I can’t wait until trump makes every Keynesian economist eat dirt.
#36
Not what I said. Most funds in non-reg. Focus. — Garth
To be fair, you wrote it in an ambiguous way:
loaded up his and Cheryl’s non-registered account and a TFSA with a single stock. Apple.
Can be read as:
non-registered account and (a TFSA with a single stock).
Or as:
(non-registered account and a TFSA) with a single stock.
A single word ‘both’ would have made it a clear sentence.
Bram
I said the holding was ‘a couple hundred grand’ – and what were TFSA limits two years ago? Use your noodle. — Garth
Below is the investment strategy of a large Canadian corporation with a defined benefit plan. The pension fund holds $6 Billion. Their target asset allocation is as follows:
– Bonds 40%
– Foreign equities 30%
– Canadian equities 15%
– Hedge funds 5%
– Infrastructure and other 5%
– Private equity 5%
The funds return in 2015 was 3.5%. The plans’ four year average return, including 2015, was 8.3%.
#46 Darryl
Ouch, know your pain. We went through this recently with our 19 yr old kitty, Maggy.
One thing to lose money, but a whole lot different to lose a family member.
Hmmm…how did those dogs all die?
Oh wait, I don’t care.
More food for us. :)
Always easier said than done when playing individual stocks. After riding a number of stocks all the way up and all the way down, I rode BBD.B to some healthy gains recently and knew that I should get out to solidify those gains. I cashed out but it’s been hard to sit on the sidelines while it keeps on going. Tomorrow will be interesting.
#46 Darryl — I feel for you. Lost my yellow lab to cancer after 13 yrs, and it was one of the worst things I’ve ever experienced. There may be smarter dogs, but none sweeter and more gentle. For the first and only time in my life, I became clinically depressed for several months. Gradually came out of it and 6 mths later got a rescue dog. He’s no lab, but still a sweet boy in his own way.
Supernova Star Stuff on 04.27.16 at 7:38 pm
#18 Smoking Man on 04.27.16 at 7:07 pm
Trump won’t lose
—
They better start preparing a slot for him on Mt. Rushmore..
Ann Coulter @AnnCoulter
========================================
ann coulter is a satirist
Bob, here’s advice for the next time you back a winner.
When the stock has gone up, sell enough of the stock so that you make your money back, plus pay any capital gains taxes. What stock is left over you can happily own, no worries.
Other sites better describe this, plus they have tips on when to sell the leftover stock.
But I think Apple, and the other tech companies are in for a rough ride. Apple lost Jobs and without him, the place just isn’t the same. But it is the same with other phone manufacturers – everyone is keeping their older phone until it dies on them. And ditto for televisions – by now we’ve all got the dream tv we wanted (mine is a 42″ jobbie that I can hook up to a computer but the tv doesn’t phone home to momma) so why upgrade?
#41 Mark, I don’t think that is true but if you give me the address I can check the price history and confirm…
I missed yesterday’s discussion about Nanaimo so here are my comments.
My wife cried when I took her to check out Nanaimo as a place to retire. We were brunching at a sad restaurant on the unlovely main road that runs through the old trench where coal residue used to be tipped. She had been prewarned that Nanaimo was entirely populated by bikers and drug addicts. It was raining.
I offered no sympathy but drove her to North Nanaimo along the waters edge past upper-middle class houses with spectacular views across the Salish Sea to the coast mountains. Her tears dried when I took her to one of the prettiest marine parks in BC with clear views of Mount Baker and the Sunshine Coast. There were migrating California sea lions lolling on the rocks.
We sold out of West Van and could have gone anywhere. We now have a 2,500 foot home in North Nanaimo with a huge deck overlooking the Salish Sea for the price of a Burnaby condo. None of our neighbours are visibly bikers or drug addicts. One is a retired CA. One is a retired school teacher. Another is a mysterious Middle Easterner with homes around the world. Our newest neighbours are Mainland Chinese.
Yes, the highway through town is lined with strip malls but the trade-off is they are all in one place and not in the many pleasant neighbourhoods you can’t see as you drive past. You never see the gorgeous harbour and parks downtown. It’s like judging Vancouver by driving down Kingsway. Even then, by the time you get to North Nanaimo, you are looking at modern shopping centres with literally everything you could find in Richmond or Burnaby.
Its true the south part of town catches the smell of the pulp mill but it is nowhere as intense as it used to be. On the other hand, East Van hipsters would cry for the pretty little heritage homes that are now being reclaimed there. The old core of South Nanaimo is a deindustrializing, grotty place like Whalley but Nanaimo has many better neighbourhoods. Judging Nanaimo by this area is like writing off Vancouver because of the Downtown East Side.
But in answer to Bogdan, much as we enjoy Nanaimo, I would be cautious about owning rental property here. Real estate only looks cheap here in comparison to Vancouver. It is pretty expensive in comparison to other similar size Canadian cities and rents are relatively low. One thing we learned in the financial crash in the early Eighties is that your security as a landlord depends entirely on the job market. Nanaimo was then a much smaller blue collar town. When the mills cut back, a lot of young renters doubled up, moved back home or just left. Apartment buildings that were full in December were half empty by July. Only the bigger job markets like Vancouver and Victoria escaped devastation.
The blue collar/ white collar job mix in Nanaimo has changed a lot and is tending to look more like Victoria. Vancouver Island University is growing and drives a lot of the traffic at the newly expanded airport. The population is growing. That said, it might still be safer to pay more to be a landlord in Victoria where high tech employment is now rivalling government job levels and the much mocked cohort of wrinklies reliably spend their pension cheques.
So are all the Nanaimo knockers wrong? If you hadn’t visited Richmond for 20 years you’d still be telling stories about ditches that could drown a horse. Nanaimo has changed too. We have only been here for three years so I can’t speak to the past but I have never seen a biker gang riding here though everybody “knows” the town is overrun with them. I have regularly seen full patch Angels riding en masse through Vancouver in their quaint colourful costumes but that’s different. It‘s not a reflection on that city apparently.
Much to the despair of amateur gynecologists, there are no longer any strip clubs here at all. You have to go to Vancouver to find them. We haven’t had a decent drive-by in months. As for property crime, we are amateurs and most of ours is exactly where you would expect, a short drug-fuelled walk away from a pawnshop in, where else? Downtown South Nanaimo.
So you can keep on swallowing the old horror stories or you can get off the highway and discover a pleasantly affordable and livable little city that’s only a 20 minute flight from downtown Vancouver when you’re really desperate to find a strip club.
Individual stocks? Most new to investing always go for the high rollers like apple. It just seems to make sense, this puppy will outperform! Until someone else builds a better mousetrap. Think Nortel.
On the other side of the equation global index investors own all the major benchmarks, forget market timing, don’t give a damn and generally forget their passwords when trying to log on to ones online discount brokerage account. Who said rebalancing was easy?
Successful investing is more akin to the tortoise and the hare.
I own 35 of the TSX best performers….I don’t want to hold any of the dogs…so index investing is out. Each issue is weighted…and I don’t sell winners…instead they run….like GIB.a from 15 to 63…..like Tims from 14 to 92…etc etc etc. Sure..they ain’t all super winners….but none of my issues will ever go to zero…unless the Trudeau Liberals make good on the promise to gut Canada.
I also own a lot of preferreds….only the best of the breed….since a lot of stocks/issues are dowen for good reason. Sorry I can’t live on a 5% return…I need monthly, quarterly, semi annual and annual dividend cheques coming straight into my cash acct.
Agreed…prefs have a ways to run….and now is a good time collect across the trough…keeping in mind we are heading for a soft time of the year and we’ll see increased beta draw on all issues regardless.
Hon. Desperado, M.P., P.C.:
In the words of Don Cherry:
You’re a beauty!!
Invested in a single stock. I had a comment, but defer to
”’
#54 cramar on 04.27.16 at 9:01 pm
Actually Apple stock (AAPL) is an nice parallel to the RE market…
”’
Anyone “investing” in a single stock is a fool who’s money shall eventually be parted from them. Maybe they get lucky, but mostly not.
You can trade in stocks, you cannot invest in them. Investing in a broad ETF or four makes sense, in that investing implies long term. But stocks? No. You need to be on top of them all the time, without emotion, and stone cold ruthless in dumping them. And ‘them’ as in many more than one to decimate losses, however many you can spare the time to babysit.
CPD.TO is gold.
Someone told me the St Johns Nfld housing market is tumbling. Laid off oil patch returning. Where?
(Least coast.)
Boom,I’m doing multi media and watching American Pickers and keeping an eye on you guys at the same time.
The boys are in La Crosse and they talked about Octoberfest.
The tapping of the golden keg , also reminded me of Apple…
M41BC
I’m just going to say what we all know you are thinking, but can’t say it out loud.
“Hopefully Trump wins, but that would be to good to be true so I’m just going to pinch my self and come back to reality.”
Trump will loose.
“#41 Mark, I don’t think that is true but if you give me the address I can check the price history and confirm…”
Even if I did give you the address, they were the original owners, and the contract between them and the builder isn’t public.
But make no mistake, things are dire in Calgary. 25% off of 2013 (peak) prices, and that’s on a very new build. Imagine how bad things are for older and less loved houses? Or condos?
#73 Andrew Woburn
Here here…..
I’ve lived here for 11 years, Nanaimo has changed a lot in that time. I got the feeling most commentators yesterday have not visited for a while or if they did they were just passing through on the old highway.
We live in a truly beautiful harbour City, gorgeous waterfront, stunning coastal views and parks. 90 mins to our local ski resort, 2.5 hours to Tofino and the Pacific Rim National Pk, I’d struggle to think of anywhere else I’d like to live in Canada.
Loading up on another pile of sweet preferreds tomorrow afternoon. It is still Christmas in preferred-land.
Common shares – people buy them for voting rights. But when the package comes in the mail with the Proxy form everyone just throws it out.
There are just so many good deals right now, with everyone loading up on residential real estate and worthless GICs.
Some day I’ll start buying houses again……when everyone else starts selling them.
#46 Darryl.
Very sorry to hear that. So hard to say goodbye. The great part is those memories and the pics. They will warm your heart for a lifetime.
TP.
Calgary-based Shaw has cut dozens of positions from its workforce as part of a senior management realignment previously announced, CBC News has learned.
The layoffs will affect less than 200 positions and are organization-wide, although most of them will occur in Calgary.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/shaw-job-cuts-1.3556330
I am not one to brag, but I bought apple a long long time ago; mainly because I thought ipods were cool. Spent about 6K more than 2 splits ago and now its in the low 6 figs. There was many times I thought about selling but I didn’t for many reasons with being lazy as one of the main ones.
I get a solid dividend every few months, but I think I could do better.
#81 Mark on 04.27.16 at 10:57 pm
“But make no mistake, things are dire in Calgary. 25% off of 2013 (peak) prices, and that’s on a very new build. Imagine how bad things are for older and less loved houses? Or condos?”
Mark – You must be confused about the drop. It is actually the sales mix skewing lower that your are misreading. Prices are actually rising there… ;-)
Even if I did give you the address, they were the original owners, and the contract between them and the builder isn’t public.
Good old Mark. Lying about pricing with ‘sales mix’ nonsense for over 2 years and not backing any of it up.
The fun thing about index investing is when that too smart for his own pants friend tells you he owns so and so company stock, you just say “me too”.
Even if Trump were to win, he wouldn’t do half what people think he’ll do for them. Snake oil salesman if ever there was one.
Preferred shares I can’t sign off on as “safe”. They are equities at the end of the day. I still own some.
Why do you continue to talk about fat yield of dividends? You do realize when a dividend is paid out the price of the stock drops the value of that dividend right ? Valuation doesn’t change, just moving money from one column to another
ECB CHIEF MARIO DRAGHI: Our cheap money is saving the world – Read at Business Insider:
http://www.businessinsider.com/draghi-germany-is-fundamentally-wrong-when-its-comes-to-investing-2016-4?&platform=bi-androidapp
Secondly, its been stagnation in Vancouver/Toronto with the Realtors only quoting rising prices on account of the shift to the sales mix.
HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHA you don’t quit do you? Show me one scrap of data that proves Vancouver real estate prices have stagnated. Hell, I bet you can’t even find one single unit comparable that has let alone a decent sized sample. If you do I won’t post on this board again for another 3 months.
Freedom First impostors are out in force again. I’m not surprised that others want to be me. I don’t blame them.
Anyways, about people being stock pickers. Very few can beat the indexes. And that includes the Pros. Garth has been giving us the best way to be long term financially successful, bar none, and for free.
Any other way is from fear, greed, ego, ignorance, or stupidity. See lots of it everywhere. After all, the rich are the minority for good reason.
One bad day and you pass judgement on a stock? Not like you, Garth. He should hold on to the AAPL. It’s
Not going lower.
When will you guys get it?
Shenzen, China house prices went up 57% in one year!
http://fortune.com/2016/03/25/shanghai-fend-off-housing-bubble/
Shanghai up 20+% Damn condo prices are $5 Millon dollars +
http://www.century21global.com/for-sale-residential/China/Shanghai
Vancouver is just starting the ascent. Wait and watch. Best bet going right now is to buy a detached in YVR….wait 1 year…pocket $1 million tax free!!
“But this is not about Apple. It’s about investing. Bob is now underwater by a buck or two. His 30% capital gain has disappeared and he’s gone two years without anything to show for it.”
“Since AAPL’s IPO to Dec. 2014 the stock is up over 21,000%! Sure beats ANY RE if you are a genius at timing and patience. And lucky!”
If you can peel your eyes away from those sexy index funds for a second, I think the real lesson here is that every market saturates at some point, and that if you want big gains, you probably won’t get them from large companies. You need to look for them in the small caps section. Some basic math (and assumptions) shows this:
A 20000% gain is an increase to 200 times the starting value.
Apple is now a $540B company. That means it started off as a $2.7B company in 1980. It’s not going to become a $108T company. Even Saudi Aramco is only going to IPO for $2T.
It’s revenues were $234B in 2015. They were $1.2B. They are not going to become $46.8T. That would be $6700 from every person on the planet.
You can do this sort of basic analysis with any company (or piece of real estate). It’s not that hard.
Garth – Where do you think the Canadian dollar is going relative to the US dollar. Earlier you had said to lighten up on Maple and look to the US for strength…..still true?
#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.16 at 6:32 pm
As long as Im smarter than Brazil ExPat………Im happy
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Mr Fartbrain is a sadddddddd panda…..
How to screw the govt.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/managing-wealth/how-the-wealthy-can-beat-ottawas-new-rules-by-becoming-low-income-to-save-big-on-their-taxes
#95 YVR Update on 04.28.16 at 4:26 am
When will you guys get it?
Shenzen, China house prices went up 57% in one year!
http://fortune.com/2016/03/25/shanghai-fend-off-housing-bubble/
Shanghai up 20+% Damn condo prices are $5 Millon dollars +
http://www.century21global.com/for-sale-residential/China/Shanghai
Vancouver is just starting the ascent. Wait and watch. Best bet going right now is to buy a detached in YVR….wait 1 year…pocket $1 million tax free!!
—-
That’s like being at a roulette table and betting it all on red, because it came up red the last 15 times.
Didn’t Kenny Rogers teach us anything?
Attention Bob:
“A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”
Better luck in the future, and when your financial advisor tells you to sell – maybe you should listen.
Here’s some detritus from the Wet Coast. Was listening to the local shock-jocks on the radio yesterday. The host was mentioning his buddy who had moved into his first home two weeks prior. Condo, 1000sqft, 1 bed, loves the neighbourhood, “forever home”, blah, blah, blah. Paid about a used Kia or so shy of $600,000.
The guy is sitting at home when he gets a knock on the door. “Hi, I’m from XYZ Developers and we want to buy your unit and the building and turn it into a highrise”. The shock-jocks friend replied “well I just moved in, love the neighbourhood, planning on living here for a long time”. The developer cut him a cheque for $1.3 mil. SOLD! Talk about dumb luck and winning the R/E lottery.
I was just reading an article about entomology and it’s potential impact on the older male body like mine. Wow, great information! That’s why I always put my freedom first.
FF007
this story is a great example of some great words of wisdom my father in law told me. buying a stock is easy, selling is the hardest thing in the world to do.
and this is a guy who worked with seniority at some big banks before he retired…
More climate change data fudging. These animals never give up.
IceGate You millennials are doomed.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/28/icegate-now-nsidc-caught-tampering-with-climate-records/
#95 YVR Update on 04.28.16 at 4:26 am
When will you guys get it?
…
It’s fun to speculate. I can think of a lot of unintended consequences, not to dim your jubilation.
Press PLAY
Guns N’ Roses – Bad Apples
I like that last line Garth. We often tend to think we are smarter than others. Investing isn’t easy, everyone loves to talk about the massive gains they made on a single stock, I do the same sometimes, but really who talks about all their losses? You keep a consistent message and only preach about risk, not doing it your way or nothing. You refuse to sound smarter, just aware of the facts. Appreciate your blog each day Garth.
Secondly, its been stagnation in Vancouver/Toronto with the Realtors only quoting rising prices on account of the shift to the sales mix. And losses pretty much everywhere else.
reading poor comments by poor ppl makes me sad
:(
RE going down is deflationary. Deflationary pressure tends to be positive for the value of currencies.
worst chain of assumptions ever
winner!
But, Trump always surprises. He has made many errors that would have crushed other candidates.
hillary has the support of big $ and big $ carried a big stick!!
HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHA you don’t quit do you? Show me one scrap of data that proves Vancouver real estate prices have stagnated. Hell, I bet you can’t even find one single unit comparable that has let alone a decent sized sample.
your correct. he cannot
#81 Mark on 04.27.16 at 10:57 pm
But make no mistake, things are dire in Calgary. 25% off of 2013 (peak) prices, and that’s on a very new build. Imagine how bad things are for older and less loved houses? Or condos?
———————————————————-
Mark I want to believe what you are saying and hope it’s true – but the hood of Varsity that I’m in I’ve seen a few listing recently on older house and it sure didn’t take long for the ole ‘sold’ sign to be slapped on.
I think the newer developments are more the commodity type house that lose value easier.
Here’s another success story you would have missed with a passive index portfolio.
MFI…Maple Leaf foods…..up 61% OVER THE PAST 5 Years……plus the nice juicy divvy paid like clockwork.
It’s making a habit of buying stocks like this that makes me glad I’m not a ETF Rip Van Winkle. I’ve got three dozen little ponies like this running faster than the other 265 TSX dogs I don’t own inside an index ETF.
Stock Pickers rule.
Garth,
An excellent article. The big potholes can be avoided.
For Bottoms_Up
Justin, Justin, Justin……..Ah, I’m feeling better every day, coming back.
Just catching up with my news, so Justin don’t negotiate with terrorists, Ok. Wonder if he had a family member kidnapped he would be singing the same song.
If I was running the show, I would say to the terrorists, sure, got the 8 million in a suit case, where do you want to make the exchange. Then get our special forces to go and waist this scum, at least if we lose a hostage or two, we get something out of it.
Ah; but that takes a bit of common scene. Something lefties no nothing about. They only know how to give your money away to third world dictators in the name of climate change that enrich themselves and do nothing for their starving people.
Monday may 2nd chance to educate yourselves. See you there.
http://www.cineplex.com/Showtimes/climate-hustle/cineplex-cinemas-yongedundas-and-vip?Date=5/2/2016&Range=50
Oh this guy is good too. Nobel laureate Ivar Giaever‘s must watch clip.
https://uniquelytoronto.com/category/climate-hustle/
All investing is gambling, its just a matter of degree and risk tolerance.
Like houses, only cheaper and more liquid. — Garth
“Good old Mark. Lying about pricing with ‘sales mix’ nonsense for over 2 years and not backing any of it up.”
If you don’t want to believe me, then Ross Kay basically came to the same conclusion (albeit by using transactional data rather than aggregate statistics). Go look up some of his work (rosskay.com) or listen to his audio interviews at howestreet.com.
Additionally, you should be ashamed of using such unparliamentarily language here just because you have a difference of opinion.
Darryl, sorry to hear of the loss of your pet today.
Obama will leave office with the highest approval rating for a departing president in modern history. 7 of 10 women, across all political lines, have stated their refusal to vote for Trump. Hispanics and African Americans despise him. The under 35 crowd hates him. Trump enters the presidential race with the greatest disapproval rating of any candidate in modern history, and way, way worse than Clinton’s.
There is literally no path that leads to victory for Trump. The question is whether they lose just the senate, or also the house. That means a liberal supreme court for generations.
Take it for what you will. But great periods of economic expansion strongly correlates with Dem presidents. Invest accordingly.
>The fixed portion [40%] should be roughly half bonds (government, corporate and high-yield) and half preferreds
That would be 20% of the total portfolio in preferreds. I wonder about that.
For a balanced ETF index portfolio, that seems like a lot of sector risk for what is a very small part of the securities market overall ($61 billion for all Canadian perferreds as per a good PWL Capital whitepaper last year on preferreds). They certainly are good to have in a non-registered account due to preferred tax treatment of dividends.
The volatility of preferreds over the last two years (and in 2008) also makes them more like an equity-class holding than a bond holding. Preferreds are significantly more volatile than bonds and more closely correlated with movement of the common equities market than bonds. As such, they don’t have the capital preservation function of bonds in a down market but also generally don’t have the upside of equities. For many of the last seven years, preferreds returned a nice yield but basically no capital appreciation. Then they got slammed last year and this year after that formerly smooth ride.
Currently, it seems reasonable to buy them and hope for a capital gain, or at least not further losses while getting 5% yield. I moved 10% of my portfolio into CPD in the fall of 2016. But one must say buying preferreds for capital gain is an exercise in market timing. It was also reasonable to have bought into preferreds after their drop in early 2015.
wow, they better increase rates quickly to cool the hot economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-28/u-s-economy-grew-in-first-quarter-at-slowest-pace-in-two-years
time to face the music, a consumer driven,debt based, economy works great until there is nothing left but empty pockets. now what? inflation? negative rates? more left wing spending until we are all broke?
welcome the the land of bondage and the home of the afraid.
#103 Freedom First on 04.28.16 at 9:31 am
********************
Aw come on, you’re sometimes a bug but you’re not an insect!
F68ON
Dang, I knew it was too good to be true, read so many boards where so many people thought VXC (unhedged) was a no-brainer (myself included) yet it’s pretty much gone nowhere in almost a year and a half and down 6% YTD. Thankfully I reallocated a bit to XSU near the bottom.
Read again, numbnuts (relevant bit bolded):
“Anyway, when it comes to investing his gut wins. Two years ago he loaded up his and Cheryl’s non-registered account and a TFSA with a single stock.”
I’m surprised nobody is discussing the rally in the gold mining sector? Over 100% gain this spring so far. I only caught the draft for a 40% return, then sold out early for lack of belief the rally could continue. Here I sit this morning, watching continued strength and gains slip by :(
#92 Frank on 04.28.16 at 1:45 am
Show me one scrap of data that proves Vancouver real estate prices have stagnated.
I doubt Mark can support his theory, as the facts show the opposite.
The best source for RE value figures is Teranet Home Price Index, unaffected by ‘sales-mix.’
Mark has been claiming Teranet has ‘years of lag’ which is absolutely not true, as you can see from the 2008 dip clearly showing in the Vancouver graph.
Vancouver RE prices have gone vertical in the last few months. Not vertical down, but vertical up.
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx
Click on ‘Vancouver’ and see the 2008 dip, proving there is no lag in Teranet numbers, and sure as heck no years of lag.
Prices are currently going up 3% per month(!)
Which completely matches what 33′ lots with tear downs go for in East Van.
Hundreds of thousands dollars more, every year.
That appreciation will stop of course, and most likely reverse.
But unlike Mark claims, it has not stalled yet.
And it sure as hell has not been stalled for years now.
There’s one valid point, Mark makes:
There is indeed no sense in name-calling and character attacks.
As a matter of fact: best course of action is ignore it, and don’t feed the troll.
He possibly may get a kick out of people getting upset about his comments.
Bram
Sources say Competition Tribunal has ruled against TREB. Confidential ruling released (paywall) http://fw.to/MAXu8le #realestate #yyz
https://twitter.com/tamsinrm?lang=en
Get your popcorn ready!!
Flopper….
Octoberfest isn’t quite as good as it was in years gone by. Funny, neither am I… still a decent time.
No fed rate hike, as expected. You need decent growth… it has been slow… yet steady.
I have no real complaints, looking for about 6-7% this year, little inflation. My biggest stock holding (~4%) just gave me a 6.7% raise in its dividend.
Where is my complaint?
Have you seen this one Garth?
http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-equity-and-principal-investors/our-insights/why-investors-may-need-to-lower-their-sights
McKinsie basically says that returns on equities will be 1.5-4% lower, and returns on fixed income 3-5% lower over the next 30 years compared with the previous 30.
#123 LP
#103 is a wannabe Freedom First. A simple minded low class imitation. And a coward.
“‘These individuals will be changing the world as it is presently constituted,’ he told me in cop-talk” – This seems like a thinly-veiled jab at cops not being overly smart.
Apple will most likely go up. It doesn’t have to go down or stay down for this guy’s decision to be a bad one.
here’s a sales mixer! new 2011 799. 3 years ago 899. today almost 1.4. 500k since 2013 on the SAME unit, now that’s some stagnation…
this is a duplex – you should see the stagnation on sfh around here!
2026 GRANT STREET, Vancouver, British Columbia V5L2Z3
$1,388,000
Listing ID: R2060008
Garth, you have to stop with the predictions… Bombardier failure? Preferreds a good buy? Rubio vs. Hillary? And now Trump is not going to win?…
Spoke to a realtor friend last night, tried to help his (ethnic Chinese) client on Tuesday to outbid on a house in Port Moody, listed at $1.3M, his client offered $1.6M plus.
But still lost to another (guess the ethnicity) buyer with winning price $1.7M
My prediction, barring aliens attack or meteorites striking both Shanghai and YVR, house with land price will stabilize only when average is over 2.5M
“The best source for RE value figures is Teranet Home Price Index, unaffected by ‘sales-mix.’”
Well there is a problem with Teranet that I don’t talk about much (in addition to the obvious problem of lag), and that is, it only covers houses that transact. A significant amount of ‘old stock’, especially in the core areas, simply does not transact very often. So you have very limited data for those areas, and such data is often not even between arms-length entities.
Teranet’s a good attempt in theory, but on account of the lag, and its imperfect adjustments for the sales mix, isn’t terribly useful to someone trying to figure out what to pay “here and now”. Its more of a tool that someone should be looking at 10 years from now to trace the evolution of the past.
McKinsie (sic) basically says that returns on equities will be 1.5-4% lower, and returns on fixed income 3-5% lower over the next 30 years compared with the previous 30.
The fixed income claim is perfectly reasonable. The equity claim is with respect to US equities, which, being the outperformers of the past 35-years, are likely to be global underperformers on a go-forward basis. The S&P500 has returned what, 12% over the past 35 years? So yeah, a lengthy period of reversion, as such implies, makes complete sense.
Does the McKinsey study refer to real returns, or nominal returns?
I’m surprised nobody is discussing the rally in the gold mining sector? Over 100% gain this spring so far. I only caught the draft for a 40% return, then sold out early for lack of belief the rally could continue. Here I sit this morning, watching continued strength and gains slip by :(
Its been spectacular, hasn’t it been? My ‘prediction’ in late December may very well prove to be far too conservative (I think I said large-cap gold would double, and juniors would emerge from the fog). CAD$ long has also done quite well. I think we’re pretty close to break-even on the CAD$ YoY now. So much for Sheane Wallace et al who thought Canada was about to enter a period of inflation, lol.
If your a yank and have a mortgage. Good news for you.
https://www.fetcharate.com/pa/?csg_ref=genpa&tg_ref=im_article&camp_id=8050&keyword=17214&sub2=banbawhwdtymq&sub=goldvaultdn1
what will he buy water tech?
The kingdom is diversifying…the buying power of 2trillion
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/35833-debacle-at-doha-the-collapse-of-the-old-oil-order
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-01/saudi-arabia-plans-2-trillion-megafund-to-dwarf-all-its-rivals
Hey Garth
Gold Jr Stocks ETF up 100 % in the last 5 months
https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GDXJ
Time to buy or sell?
Platform cooperativism?
http://platformcoop.net/
redeemable preference shares
http://www.yesmagazine.org/new-economy/how-a-worker-owned-tech-startup-found-investors-and-kept-its-values-20160426
#126 Domain
I’m surprised nobody is discussing the rally in the gold mining sector? Over 100% gain this spring so far. I only caught the draft for a 40% return, then sold out early for lack of belief the rally could continue. Here I sit this morning, watching continued strength and gains slip by :(
—————
Mark called this sometime ago.
The past 6 months have been good and I have a feeling that there is still plenty more upside, but time will ultimately tell all.
Silver and silver miners have been my real winners lately.
Good old Mark. Lying about pricing with ‘sales mix’ nonsense for over 2 years and not backing any of it up.
this is true. and if u go to ross Kay’s web site you would notice that it also doesn’t support WalMark.
poor guy
I doubt Mark can support his theory, as the facts show the opposite.
unfortunately this is why he’s been banned almost everywhere
He possibly may get a kick out of people getting upset about his comments.
honestly I feel badly for him. I fear the years of having no success has created this poor soul :(
Obama will leave office with the highest approval rating for a departing president in modern history.
he also has the best record for hunting whistleblowers and suppressing freedom of the press
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/04/20/475017281/u-s-ranks-41st-in-press-freedom-index-thanks-to-war-on-whistleblowers
“I will have the most transparent administration in history!!”
The best source for RE value figures is Teranet Home Price Index, unaffected by ‘sales-mix.’
I agree. It’s unaffected by sales mix and lag. Also clearly shows YVR and YYZ prices increasing over the last few years.
Alberta Oil. We might be getting over the bottom at $26.00. Climbing. $46.00 today.
Will it stay??
http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/Buffalo-CFA-Presentation-26-APR-2016-1.pdf
PB43
I’m surprised nobody is discussing the rally in the gold mining sector?
congrats on making your first hundred dollars!
lol
“unfortunately this is why he’s been banned almost everywhere”
Not true. I’m banned at that particular place you’re referring to because trolls like you overwhelmed the moderators with nonsensical complaints. It should be noted that most of those trolls have been, themselves, been banned. I still post occasionally to that website, albeit on far less controversial topics under a different nickname.
this is true. and if u go to ross Kay’s web site you would notice that it also doesn’t support WalMark.
If you listen to the interviews he’s given, it is abundantly clear that he has come to, based on an independent path of research (his involving sales data, mine involving macrostatistics), very similar conclusions. Basically with the first time buyers being forced out of the market on account of prices and CMHC subprime credit expansion being cut off in Budget 2013, housing prices have stagnated.
So nice try at spreading your nonsense. Most here can see right through it. The Canadian ‘consumer’ is tapped out, broke, with no more home equity to borrow against. This isn’t because of rising house prices, that’s for sure.
#114 Carl Hoopydy on 04.28.16 at 10:32 am
Here’s another success story you would have missed with a passive index portfolio.
MFI…Maple Leaf foods…..up 61% OVER THE PAST 5 Years……plus the nice juicy divvy paid like clockwork.
__________________________________________
I have a few company stocks like this but I don’t bother with giants like apple or amazon. I focus on industries I have some exposure too. It doesn’t fall victim to home bias either. But things are always changing I don’t do the blue chip thing.
Honestly, investing wouldn’t be fun for me if I couldn’t apply my thinking skills. My friend invests in real estate because he genuinely enjoys renovating houses, flipping etc. It’ s a labour of love that makes him money. I like reading and thinking about what I see happening around me.
If I’m wrong about certain ones, and I’m sure I’ll mess up a few, I have plenty of time to make up for it. But if I can pick a few right the upside could be well worth it.
That said, going all-in-on apple is just dumb. I also don’t listen to dog walkers, barbers, parents or bils. I don’t personally know anybody that I would call smart money. Just me, my gut, what I can learn and whatever happens, happens.
http://m.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/watchdog-wins-case-against-treb-206504.aspx
Bye bye TREB scumbags!
There’s nothing wrong with Apple. I’m not advocating for only holding Apple stock, but this is basically what happened:
2012 – $39.2
2013 – $43.6
2014 – $45.6
2015 – $58.0 (47.8)
2016 – $50.1
2015 was an outlier year, 2016 was the normal one. 2017 will probably be even or slightly weak compared to this year; upgrade cycles seem to be stretching out a bit. Apple made $6.0 billion on Apple Watches this year–that’s a full $1.5 billion more than Rolex.
Apple’s profit this quarter was more than Alphabet (Google), Microsoft and Facebook COMBINED.
They’re not a sure bet forever, and they can’t be your only investment, but Apple’s mistakes make more money than some company’s huge successes. Don’t throw them under the bus just yet.
#147 WalMark of Saskatoon
I’m probably just feeding another troll (you) by saying this, but multiply the figure you joked about by 1500 to get an idea of what kind of quarter I have enjoyed. Anyway, the point is, there are always opportunities, and the best time to buy is when people are moaning about how something is no longer relevant, yet has been forever.
Now we know for sure: the Zero guy(s) are mentally unstable: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-29/unmasking-the-men-behind-zero-hedge-wall-street-s-renegade-blog