Big news

TRUMP modified

Prince, Bowie and Shandling aside, the Boomers ain’t dead yet. Far from it. The last one doesn’t turn 65 for another 15 years. Besides, sixty-five is the new 45. So suck it up.

The boom lasted two decades, during with 8.2 million babies were popped – about 415,000 a year. That means we now have almost 8,000 people a week becoming seniors, starting to collect their OAS & CPP, and riding public transit to work in their executive positions at half fare. Wo-hoo. Boomers’ moms, on average, had 3.7 kids while today’s moms birth half that number.

So about a third of all the souls alive in this country are part of this cohort (post-WW2 immigration bolstered the numbers to 9.2 million), which means by the time they are all old farts, a quarter of the population will be over 65. Currently it’s 12%. That’s big news.

Millennials should be aware of two things. First, taxes are going up. Like, a lot. Your guy Justin will be adding $125 billion in debt over the next four years, which will ensure a tax increase down the road, plus all these Boomers constitute a health care hurricane. With 1,600 more people hitting retirement age every working day of the week (and only 1,040 new babies being born), get ready. Your parents are about to become your worst nightmare. Inheritance? You wish. (By the way, didja hear about poor Alberta?)

Second, Boomers have more houses than anybody and (generally speaking) not enough money to last for two or three decades. Thus, real estate equity will have to be crystallized in order to provide monthly cash flow. Already this is starting to show. (Seventy per cent of us own houses but 90% of Boomers have property.)

A new Re/Max poll conducted by Leger Research found that among Boomers aged 55 to 64, a whopping 56% are thinking about selling in order to muster a retirement nest egg. Smart, of course. Real estate markets in a few places (GTA and YVR) are utterly bloated, while in others (Victoria, 905, Montreal) they’re near peak levels and still others (Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg and that flat province) are slow but not yet cratering. So hardly a better time to cash out.

But most won’t do so. People in Toronto or Vancouver worry about downsizing into a market with a deficit of houses and a surfeit of horny buyers. Plus, so long as prices rise, human nature (greed) prevents a majority from doing the rational thing, and bailing. All that will change, once markets start to decline as mortgage rates swell. Trust me. It’s coming.

Meanwhile the stats on liquid wealth accumulation in Canada are truly sad. RRSP contributions have been withering annually, while 80% of tax-free accounts are in pay-nothing, interest-bearing savings products. Forty per cent of families live paycheque-to-paycheque and half of us say we’d be screwed missing one paycheque. Household debt, famously, is at the highest level in recorded history, and substantially above the point at which the US middle class blew up. The economy may have started to turn upwards in the last few months, but so has personal borrowing. It’s now running four times the rate of increase in incomes.

In short, every day more net worth in this country becomes concentrated in residential real estate. And because the Boomers own more of it than anyone else, now headed as a herd into their thirsty undies and plastic-hip-sex-pill years, you should expect a big housing sell-off ahead. Some of them will cash out, invest the money and live off the proceeds. Some will downsize and consume the extra capital. Some (poor fools) will believe what they hear on TV and get a reverse mortgage. Others will give their houses to their kids, and move into the basement.

There are some lessons here.

Parents with questionable retirement resources giving their adult kids money for down payments need their heads read. Most can’t afford the largesse and this is absolutely the wrong time to be pushing your offspring into housing. Every indication is that our property bubble will end, and when it does a demographic tsunami may well commence. Why not wait?

Boomers must get far more serious about the financial path ahead. Life’s long. The greatest risk around is running out of money. Houses cost a lot to own, and the equity in them won’t buy the groceries. Unless you have a juicy government pension or a seven-figure retirement fund, you’d be wise to sell, invest and rent. Given the historic collapse in interest rates (which will eventually end) how could there be a better time to capitalize on real estate excess?

The fact 56% of Boomers are starting to think this way should tell you something. Don’t wait.

Has there ever been a better time to sell?

SALES STATS

143 comments ↓

#1 That guy on 04.25.16 at 6:53 pm

I love renting. The only issue is that rental vacancy in Victoria is a withering 0.8%. It’s hard to find a nice rental nowadays.

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.16 at 6:53 pm

the silver tsunami…….I cant wait….

#3 Dean Ramon on 04.25.16 at 6:53 pm

First!!

#4 ILoveCharts on 04.25.16 at 6:55 pm

This is why I recently bought a place in a town that retirees flock to.

#5 Hoping for the best on 04.25.16 at 7:01 pm

My parents, boomers both, have most of their assets in a private commercial real-estate venture. So far it’s been a smashing success.

#6 Boomer Death Counter on 04.25.16 at 7:02 pm

Ah, Garth, such comforting words for your fellow boomers. But it will be even worse, much so.

As I reported here a few days ago, there is alarming new data that life expectancy is now actually reverting, and boomers will be the first to experience this full force. So many are quite unhealthy, obese and struggling to keep it all together in spite of entering retirement years with massive debts.

Expect reverse mortgages to get much tougher to obtain before too long.

Then what?

Healthcare is about to soar, from 40% to well over 50% of spending.

Except that we just cannot afford it, with all the new government spending and debt.

Counting on boomer political influence to cater to the needs of boomers, as always, is now a non-starter.

Justin was a millennial victory. Boomers will never have political sway again.

Those days are gone. So should the entitled expectations of boomers, who have taken more from and contributed less to our general economy than any generation in history.

(And I am not speaking for the most part of those born after about 1960 – the Gen X’ers and later borns have always had quite different prospects and privileges than boomers)

Boomers, heed Garth’s words. Sell your inflated properties now, or spend your remaining years wondering, “what if?”

#7 Boom! on 04.25.16 at 7:04 pm

Who cares about a seven figure portfolio? Nice, eh but not really needed by this 64 yr old. Yeah we’re close but hitting it is not nirvana.

I might sell this dumb, might not. Depends (not the wearables).

Only one kid, and he’s a lazy dud, so who “owes” him a dam thing? Gave him an education, now he can use it, or lose it. The nest is CLOSED.

Retirement time is for the barely sexy old lady, and me the shuffling goober spouse.

Live til 90? Not hardly. Never won the lottery, why should I win god’s booby prize either? Former genes are a mixed bag one outlier went ’til 102, yet most hit room temp sometime in 70’s to early 80’s.

I’ll do my dest to maintain habits that tend not to favor useless time on this gasbag.

In the meantime, we will do what we feel like doing, can do, can afford to do, and after that who much takes note?

Honey, who is our designated health care rep, and did we execute health care directive orders? We did. Good!

See ya in the Bar at Dante’s dear…

#8 Bob on 04.25.16 at 7:13 pm

Garth, your raise an interesting point about their being risks, but this statement:

next four years, which will ensure a tax increase down the road, plus all these Boomers constitute a health care hurricane.

is not necessarily true.

And even if it were, it would be targeted ‘tax’ increase – e.g. an inheritance tax or removal of income splitting for seniors, or a new health-care-premium tax (for those who can afford it), higher CPP premiums, CPP reform.

Or, maybe the world will grow and tax-based revenue will increase. You know, maybe peak oil and oil rebounds?

Or, a deterioration of healthcare, by virtue of waitlists. Or private services. The wealthy will go to the US for services. etc.

Lots of possibilities, the sky ain’t falling.

#9 ST on 04.25.16 at 7:16 pm

My savings have been destroyed by this new easy lending and low next to 0 interest rate.
This system has created the GOLD FINGER EFFECT ON SAVINGS,

#10 Forzudo on 04.25.16 at 7:21 pm

In May 2014, Macleans magazine crunched the public servant Baby Boomer numbers: http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-federal-public-services-baby-boomer-problem/

#11 Scumop on 04.25.16 at 7:27 pm

I will be supporting the rest of my cohort like a good citizen should. I’ll be one of those boomers who works until he dies.

Hand fiercely gripping the mouse as his heart finally fails him, an 86 yo Scumop stabs at the [Enter] key and adds that one last line of code to an online real estate financing app, securing a place in software defect history. His last thought: “Just a bit more caffeine and I would have got it right.”

#12 Aggregator on 04.25.16 at 7:31 pm

Urbancorp restructuring ends up in Israeli court

Lawyers for Urbancorp, one of Canada’s largest real estate developers, appeared in an Israeli court Monday for a hearing called to discuss the company’s filing for bankruptcy restructuring there and in Toronto, according to local reports.

The Israeli hearing came as its bonds were halted on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. Urbancorp raised the equivalent of $60 million in Israel five months ago, according to Haaretz newspaper.

Toronto developer Brad Lamb whose company filed a lawsuit over unpaid commissions said he is owed “in the seven figures” and hasn’t seen a situation like it since the early 1990s.

Urbancorp’s projects included in the bankruptcy filing include Downsview Park, St. Clair Village, Lawrence, Mallow, Patricia and its management company.

It added two projects Monday: Bridle Path and Woodbine developments.

They added two more projects today. I can just picture Urbancorp's directors trying to explain to a bankrupcty trustee what a presale is, how it doesn't physically exist and why there's no money backing it as an asset.

Sorry Brad. You're stiffed.

#13 God Emperor Trump on 04.25.16 at 7:32 pm

With Trump to secure his nomination tomorrow, we at the Trump campaign here in South Etobicoke are asking Garth to make a statement; disavow Crooked Hillary and you will be in the graces of the God Emperor of Mankind.

You don’t want to be on the wrong side of the wall, do you Garth?

#14 Mark on 04.25.16 at 7:38 pm

“Given the historic collapse in interest rates (which will eventually end)”

Eventually, sure. But it could still take at least another decade or two. Interest rates in excess of nominal GDP growth (ie: 4-5%/annum historically) are not sustainable. Even capturing the entirety of nominal GDP growth in the interest rates isn’t realistic as an investment risk premia must necessarily be afforded to those who take risk. So long-term interest rates of 3-4% are all that are sustainable.

We know that policy rates since 1980 have averaged in approximately 6%. To get to a long-run average interest rate of 3%, this means that we need ZIRP for basically the next 35 years. Which, given the demographics of the boomer cohort, sounds about right.

Rates will rise again in the U.S. in 2016 and in Canada in 2017. — Garth

#15 For those about to flop... on 04.25.16 at 7:41 pm

I just got my notice of assessment for my 2015 taxes in the mail.
I like the new format ,a lot clearer but one thing that did catch my eye was it states I have until May 11th to pay.
I had never noticed this before, I had always paid by the end of April but I guess this will help a few people out…

M41BC

#16 Drake Hayes on 04.25.16 at 7:41 pm

Interest rates will go up and down but don’t expect GIC’s to pay more than 3.0% to 3.25% at best for 5 years and government bonds provincial at 3.5% to 3.8% at best.

Interest rates would collapse even more from whatever low level they stay or go to when real estate prices drop 15%, 20% or whatever correction happens, world GDP growth slows, more stick market crashes 20%+ etc. etc/

It is now been around 8.5 years since the global financial, economic downturn and interest rates are still nowhere near the 4.5% to 5% levels on GIC’s, government bonds.

This was just a big con game and it is working just as they want, central banks, governments, corporations.

#17 not 1st on 04.25.16 at 7:43 pm

Garth, everyone, and I mean everyone is in the same boat.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-robson-the-welfare-state-is-bust-and-so-are-americans

#18 cto on 04.25.16 at 7:56 pm

Garth
we are close to having our house in scarborugh paid for and my wife wants to by a second investment house with some cash she had saved. iv warned her from making such an investment over the last 5-6 years but by now my credibility is shot.
she calc’d that she’s lost out on hundreds of thousands in capital gains. she feels corrections are a thing of the past as our country is importing immigrants with money now.
you, bought a trendy store in belfountain. if my wife is convinced that this is what she wants, is there something similar in the outer gta. maybe an unloved simi-commercial property in uxbridge or something?

#19 Fed-up on 04.25.16 at 8:03 pm

“a whopping 56% are thinking about selling in order to muster a retirement nest egg”

Thinking of selling and actually selling are not the same. I realize this doesn’t indicate the over-all market but in my considerably sized extended family, I have dozens of aunt’s and uncles living in large homes who are in their 70’s and some in their 80’s. Not 1 has sold their home. This very consistent with the fact that there is almost no supply and hardly anyone is selling their homes regardless of age. Cool theory, but it is not materializing and hasn’t been for the last 15 years.

“All that will change, once markets start to decline as mortgage rates swell. ”

When??? Rates have actually gone down ever since this Blog has attempted to call a bottom over the years! And what is the definition of “swelling” these days? Please don’t mention the 1/4 point hike so far by the fed with zero cred.

Tough questions/comments I know but none of this is happening anywhere. Just the opposite in most cases. I’d like to think you will be right someday Garth, but I’d love to be alive if and when it actually happens.

#20 Shawn on 04.25.16 at 8:05 pm

What’s your view on how the baby boomers will impact healthcare. The majority think this is a huge windfall for healthcare professionals but don’t realize that ongoing cuts (are) will be the norm.

#21 Apocalypse2016 on 04.25.16 at 8:16 pm

Uh-oh :(

Zika case confirmed in Ontario, may be sexually transmitted

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/zika-1.3551916

This will be a total health catastrophe for Canada and the world very soon, sadly.

But in the meantime, Garth – if you narrow your focus, you can make a fortune at your new store by selling just 3 things:

Depends

Bug spray

Condoms

#22 Brazil ex-pat on 04.25.16 at 8:16 pm

And many hundreds of thousands of retiring boomers are public sector workers of which there is a shortfall of several hundred billion. Expect taxes to skyrocket for all you private sector workers to cover the shortfall. Good luck !!

#23 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.25.16 at 8:16 pm

A new Re/Max poll conducted by Leger Research found that among Boomers aged 55 to 64, a whopping 56% are thinking about selling in order to muster a retirement nest egg. Smart, of course. Real estate markets in a few places (GTA and YVR) are utterly bloated

it’s crazy to think that 90% of boomers own real estate (probably higher in YVR and YYZ) and even a tax free windfall can’t convince them to sell

fools

#24 common sense on 04.25.16 at 8:17 pm

“Interest rates rise in 2016 in the USA and 2017 here..”

Let’s hope after the election…

Just finished a great book – The Age of Stagflation: Why Perpetual growth is unattainable and the global economy is in Peril by Satyajit Das

A good read for any investor. Invest accordingly fellow dawgs…

#25 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.25.16 at 8:18 pm

Thinking of selling and actually selling are not the same.

totally. boomers dream about how nice it would be to have all that cash, but want to say they own their own home.

pathetic

#26 For those about to flop... on 04.25.16 at 8:21 pm

My in -laws own a house that they could sell for 1.8million if they sold right now.
The kicker is they have less than 100k in retirement savings but are not interested in selling.
My FIL was moaning the other day about a bill and I said maybe you should look into deferring your property taxes and quoted a figure I seen on here so it must be true…0.8% interest.
Didn’t seem keen on that.They will go to the last dollar and then who knows what will happen but cashing in is not going to happen.

Weird….

M41BC

#27 Porsche on 04.25.16 at 8:26 pm

“Besides, sixty-five is the new 45. So suck it up.”

Tell the employer that

#28 Why Me on 04.25.16 at 8:33 pm

“All that will change, once markets start to decline as mortgage rates swell.” – Garth

——————————————————–

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Heard it all from you before.

#29 Porsche on 04.25.16 at 8:37 pm

#17 not 1st on 04.25.16 at 7:43 pm

A comment from your posted link…

The average size of new houses built in the US has doubled since the 1950s, from about 1200 sq ft to about 2400 (quoting from memory). And then there are granite counters, etc. Heaven forbid a house should look “dated.” My first house, bought 46 years ago, cost exactly one year’s salary–$10,000. Anyone buying a house worth one year’s salary these days? I realize that this is a “get off my lawn kids” observation, but still….

#30 MF on 04.25.16 at 8:38 pm

“Your guy Justin”

I didn’t vote for him and neither did any of my 32 year old friends. Probably because we were too busy working and trying to make something out of ourselves rather than be duped.

#19 Fed-up on 04.25.16 at 8:03 pm

The post was just as much of a message to millennials as it was for boomers. Sure rates have gone down recently, but that’s only because our central bankers have no tools left and are grasping for straws out of desperation. Mortgage renewals are usually in 5 year increments. It’s a good bet that in 5,10,15 years the central bank failed experiment will necessitate an increase in rates to prevent another great depression as debt loads become more out of control than they already are. It won’t be a recession like 2008 since there was room to decrease rates then and the debt was less.

#18 cto on 04.25.16 at 7:56 pm

Yeah i’ve heard this too. No more corrections ever. Tell her the incompetent people trying to keep it all going have zero tools left and the whole thing will be crashing down soon like it always does. The “hundreds of thousands of dollars” will vanish in a puff of debt fueled smoke just like it appeared.

MF

#31 Randy on 04.25.16 at 8:43 pm

Don’t worry…the Boomers will die off quickly due to drug / alcohol abuse /stress…and kids…Don’t count on a big inheritance.

#32 TRT on 04.25.16 at 8:46 pm

I can tell you for a fact that younger Vancouverites definitely won’t take any jobs where you pay taxes. If no choice they will head to USA.

Boomers have a choice. Tax their wealth or gut healthcare.

Living on backs of young taxpayers won’t fly anymore. Social media has awoken many young minds.

#33 TRT on 04.25.16 at 8:49 pm

DELETED

#34 Scott in Gibsons on 04.25.16 at 8:51 pm

Don’t worry about Boomer assets. It was an anomaly for peasants to accumulate that amount of wealth. The 0.01% are in the process of reclaiming it. Won’t take long.

#35 Mark on 04.25.16 at 8:55 pm

“All that will change, once markets start to decline as mortgage rates swell.” – Garth

Garth and I disagree on the future direction of policy rates, but I do agree with his claim that mortgage rates are going to swell. After all, as housing prices continue to stagnate/decline, risk premia against mortgage lending is certain to rise. The situation where mortgage borrowers can borrow at rates similar to large high-quality corporate burrowers is historically unsustainable.

As we’ve seen over the past few years, mortgage rates can stay the same or even rise, while policy rates fall. And when the BoC implements their next policy rate cut (maybe end of May), it wouldn’t surprise me if the banks once again refuse to pass on the full “savings” in terms of lowered “retail” rates.

#36 sarah on 04.25.16 at 9:02 pm

All that will change, once markets start to decline as mortgage rates swell. Trust me. It’s coming.

Wanna bet on your Caledon property? I’ve heard this before and this has failed to materialize.

#37 JSS on 04.25.16 at 9:02 pm

Boomers have had a good run. Quit complaining.

Where was the complaint? I just feel sorry for you. — Garth

#38 vic guy on 04.25.16 at 9:13 pm

Moral of the story…Boomer Moms = Tramps.
Baby machines.
I hope they all eat crow in the end.

#39 Boom! on 04.25.16 at 9:18 pm

Darn it. left out a word in post #7 the 2nd line….

Might sell this dumb “house”…. might not, depends…

While a house has been good, fun, and a never ending drain with taxes, insurance, up-keep, and of course, paying for the dam thing – we are not dealing with stratospheric prices here.

As for investment returns going forward, they are very likely to be lower. Demographics. Boomers will consume less as they retire, and age out. Gen X and Y will have lower numbers to replace Boomers, while technology replaces workers, fewer workers may, or may not make more money.

They will likely pay MORE TAXES simply because demanding old geezers vote in high numbers, politicians who do not respond will replace those politicians.

Governments will be hard pressed to even live up to the moderate promises made, don’t be surprised if they re-write rules costing you more money, whether boomer, X, Y, or the new millennials.

Oh, and borrowing rates will go up.

Life can be such a joke, try not to be one.

#40 Tony on 04.25.16 at 9:19 pm

Re: #4 ILoveCharts on 04.25.16 at 6:55 pm

The idea is buy a house in a place they will flock to not buy a house in a place they already flock to.

#41 Capt. Obvious on 04.25.16 at 9:27 pm

So, currently dealing with the downside of renting. When our lease is up the owners (who’d been renting the house out for over a decade) are returning from afar and will move in. Ugh, moving. Fortunately we’re finding quite a few places are available in areas we like.

Re: today’s topic, I can’t reason with my father. Their hood in the burbs of Totonto is hot. Ma and Pa have a nice place near enough to the lake to walk down to the beach. Financially they’re ok because they did save money for retirement, but I don’t get why they will not cash out and move somewhere else nice. I get the standard line about not being able to make any money in investments, so gotta stay in the real estate market! Sigh.

#42 common sense on 04.25.16 at 9:29 pm

Just waiting for a wealth tax to be implemented to tax all those that saved, sacrificed, invested prudently …

And those nice REGISTERED RRSP and TFSA are just so juicy and irresistible for the government to see and access..

Yum, yum, yum..

#43 Fed-up on 04.25.16 at 9:35 pm

“It’s a good bet that in 5,10,15 years the central bank failed experiment will necessitate an increase in rates to prevent another great depression as debt loads become more out of control than they already are.”

Oh cool, higher rates a good bet in 10 or 15 years. Respectfully, what in the blue hell will a detached home cost in the GTA or YVR by then???

#44 Estrella on 04.25.16 at 9:36 pm

Umm, Is there anyone here in the market for a castle??

Close to Kingston, I have it on good authority you can get a good deal on it!!

Starting bid is 300K. Not bad

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/business/2016/04/25/whitby-couple-takes-their-kingston-area-castle-to-auction.html

I think we can start to see more of these stories
Were retired people falsely believe their home is there retirement money. Lol

#45 DON on 04.25.16 at 9:42 pm

B.C. realtor suspended for sending imposter to take realty exam

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/headlines

YIKES!

#46 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.25.16 at 9:49 pm

fed funds rate will likely sit in the gutter. mortgage rates will rise. I don’t know what will cause YVR and YYZ property to decline in price but I think it’ll be educational

#47 DON on 04.25.16 at 9:56 pm

#1 That guy on 04.25.16 at 6:53 pm

I love renting. The only issue is that rental vacancy in Victoria is a withering 0.8%. It’s hard to find a nice rental nowadays

*************

Not sure about that…in 2007 there were hardly any rentals now there are whole buildings being offered as rentals, downtown you are paying the landlord’s mortgage as rents are high, especially in the more desirable areas.

Story: Talking to my brother the other day, his wife’s friend (who is a realtor late 20’s early 30s – dad is in the business as well) well….this young woman has bought 3 houses over 700K in Victoria and one fetches 2K a month from tenants. “It is a winning deal.” I offered no comments as I know better.

Now… one has to wonder how many other realtors are doing this and then the need to hype the market becomes much more apparent. The Chinese are coming…the retirees are coming…the gov is hiring (most go to internal applicants, but eh makes the job numbers look good). Yes the spring market took off to a good start I know of three people that over paid for houses in the wrong areas (bad location). Vancouver is an 1.45 hr ferry ride away, but still an expensive pain in the ass – no need to go to Van with online shopping.

#48 Bottoms_Up on 04.25.16 at 9:57 pm

#22 Brazil ex-pat on 04.25.16 at 8:16 pm
————————-
And in brazil ex-pat’s world, jobs for border security, armed forces, resource development, trade promotion, prosecution, jail houses, policing, health care and child education would all go to the lowest bidder rather than highly qualified individuals wanting to work for the greater good….

#49 TurnerNation on 04.25.16 at 10:00 pm

Welcome back Aggregator. One post of yours is worth 50 of Mark’s :-(

Later gator.

#50 Lobster Man on 04.25.16 at 10:01 pm

Garth,

Is there anyway I can invest in dentistry in Canada, directly or indirectly?

I’m thinking of it as a real growth industry, with the boomers all reaching those ripe old ages…..

Thanks,
LM

P. S. I am too old to become a new dentist.

#51 Bottoms_Up on 04.25.16 at 10:10 pm

#44 Estrella on 04.25.16 at 9:36 pm
—————————-
Nice looking place, the reality is that anyone who can afford a million dollar home is not looking to commute 30-40 minutes into Kingston, nor 20 minutes to smiths falls, nor 2 hours to ottawa….profs and public servants just don’t make that much. Given they paid less than $400,000 in 2003, if they’re lucky they’ll get $600,000.

#52 TCContrarian on 04.25.16 at 10:11 pm

#34 Scott in Gibsons on 04.25.16 at 8:51 pm

“Don’t worry about Boomer assets. It was an anomaly for peasants to accumulate that amount of wealth. The 0.01% are in the process of reclaiming it. Won’t take long.”

*********************************************

Funny – I’ve been thinking more or less the same thing.

Banks ‘create’ (debt) money out of thin air, ‘loan’ it out as secured loans (mortgages), whilst creating a massive ‘bubble’ that few understand…
Then, as the bubble pops and debtors can’t service the ‘loans’, banks get to keep REAL estate (in exchange for ‘fiat’).

What a racket!!

#53 MF on 04.25.16 at 10:12 pm

#43 Fed-up on 04.25.16 at 9:35 pm

How much will houses cost in 10 years?

-With rampant inflation, trillions of lost equity, trillions of bankruptcies, CMHC collapse, high divorce rates, high taxes, and of course higher lending rates, not much.

Maybe as much as a pets.com stock on the NASDAQ in 2001.

MF

#54 Bottoms_Up on 04.25.16 at 10:13 pm

#41 Capt. Obvious on 04.25.16 at 9:27 pm
———————–
I know someone that sold a house in TO a couple years ago. They should have waited…likely left $100,000 (minus expenses) on the table. That’s what’s going on in potential sellers heads….

Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. — Garth

#55 Sharon Talent on 04.25.16 at 10:16 pm

The ‘1%’ is the civil service . When cops make more than 99% of everyone else the system has failed.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-robson-the-welfare-state-is-bust-and-so-are-americans

No more attacks on ‘the rich’ please. What needs to happen is civil service wages and benefits need to be cut in half so that the money can go to people who need it. Shame on the Trudeau Liberals for pouring even more money into the accounts of these gluttons while seniors and children starve.

#56 Mike in Edm on 04.25.16 at 10:22 pm

Here’s some Alberta realtor.ca stats YoY for you all. Very unscientific as I just grab all my #’s from the listings, but it paints a bit of a picture as to the markets that I care about. And remember, prices last April were already down a bit, and listings were way up compared to 2014.

Fort McMurray:
Total listings are actually DOWN by 12%, and List prices seem to be anywhere from 12-16% lower right now. There is also 60% more listings of large houses at or under $660k. A year a go there was 19. Now there are 48. That’s a LOT more competition!

Edmonton:
Total listings are up 12% compared to last year and list prices seem to be about 4% lower

Calgary:
Total listings are up 9% compared to last year and list prices seem to be about 6% lower

#57 TurnerNation on 04.25.16 at 10:24 pm

The Zika thing smells like another man made scam designed to further take away our travel rights and discourage Western countries from having kids. The soft kill bio weapons so to speak.

(And I’d not rest an ipad on my man parts from age 5 upwards and a cell phone in pocket, and wifi in new cars even. We’ll find out in 10 yrs time how it turns out for them. How their body cells react to Cells.)
We have a defacto one child policy anyway. Who can afford more?

How about that Ebola scam/scare…thought so.

#58 Sam the Sham on 04.25.16 at 10:31 pm

I’m a Boomer. Actually a pre-Boomer by a few years. Townhouses in my complex in southern Ontario like mine rent for between $1300 and $1350 a month. I pay $425 in condo fee and property taxes. Why would I sell and rent?

Because you might not have enough net worth generating adequate, life-enhancing retirement income. — Garth

#59 tundra pete on 04.25.16 at 10:37 pm

It’s a millenial’s goldmine. As long as you change the diaper on my wrinkly ass, I will help make your mortgage payment, or part of it if you were a little greedy. So go into nursing or some such skill and invest in funeral homes and extended care homes.

As your reward, you will have your pick of wrinkldom’s lair. When the market is doing a downhill spiral, out of control with a majority of boomers deciding to sell in unison and mortgage rates are at 5.5%!

#60 TurnerNation on 04.25.16 at 10:42 pm

Some facts to my last post….abortion is legal only in Western countries. Wikipedia has world map of status by country. Little to do with rights.
I’m not sure they want me having kids. …

#61 WallOfWorry on 04.25.16 at 10:50 pm

Some interesting posts as this blog is myopically focused on Canadian real estate and the assumption that rates are on a slow and steady ascent:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/world-s-negative-yielding-bond-pile-tops-7-trillion-chart

Also factor in GDP growth in Q1 forecasted at 1% annually, the continuing decline in corporate profits and the Fed going from a forecast of 4 rate hikes this year to one or two.

There may be some other things to worry about than Canadian real estate for 30 seconds?

#62 SI2K on 04.25.16 at 10:53 pm

#6: I agree. A few of my Gen X friends are already widows, and we’re only in our 40s. A few! There’s been some press recently about lifespan gains in the traditionally privileged classes stalling. We’ll see how the boomers do, but I’m starting to wonder if that recession took a huge bite out of the health of Gen X. We’re working all the time to pull a middle class lifestyle. I mean, we’re doing it, but it sure as heck isn’t a 40 hour work week. More like 50 hours on two or more contracts plus on call. It’s taking a toll.

#63 For those about to flop... on 04.25.16 at 10:57 pm

Boss, just want to say it was very unselfish of you to keep the blog going while you have all this other stuff(moving and renovating) going on.
Not to mention starting a new business venture.

I know you take pride in banging out 6 posts a week but I think all that regulars would have understood if you took some time off for the next chapter of your life.

Bandit might be the big winner out of all this with a bigger yard…

M41BC

#64 PVSinsight on 04.25.16 at 11:10 pm

“You should expect a big housing sell-off ahead. Some of them will cash out, invest the money and live off the proceeds. Some will downsize and consume the extra capital.”

I’ve mentioned this a few times over the last year or so here on this blog. Demographics will play the biggest role regardless of interest rate and housing prices. Boomers will not be able to live in and maintain their 2-3000 sq ft two storey homes forever. Their children will claim some but many will be sold in order to downsize and to provide a living income.

Those who can wait, be patient. In five to ten years, deals will abound.

#65 Mark on 04.25.16 at 11:27 pm

“I’m a Boomer. Actually a pre-Boomer by a few years. Townhouses in my complex in southern Ontario like mine rent for between $1300 and $1350 a month. I pay $425 in condo fee and property taxes. Why would I sell and rent?”

So $1350 – $425 in condo fees is a net rent of $925. Let’s reduce that by another $100/month on account of condo fees not covering maintenance to the interior of the unit, nor the fees often being adequate for long-term maintenance of the condo unit.

So basically your condo unit is providing you a net of $825/month of imputed rent.

You can buy the S&P/TSX Composite Index at an after-tax P/E of roughly 15 today. 15 * $825/month * 12 months/year = $148,500.

Can you sell the condo for more than $148,500? If so, then the stock market is likely a better investment. If the condo sells for less than $148,500 , then the condo is probably a better investment.

Yes, stocks are technically ‘riskier’, but they typically will have a higher growth rate. Historically housing trades at a P/E of around 10, and professional landlords typically won’t consider RE a good investment unless it is priced at 100X monthly rent (ie: valuing your condo unit at roughly $135k).

Don’t know where your condo unit is located specifically, but at current pricing, most units with metrics similar to yours are priced at $250-$300k. Thus they are significantly overvalued relatively speaking.

#66 Robert on 04.25.16 at 11:33 pm

There will continue to be windfall gains in the hot markets despite this sage advice. With sub 3.5% mortgages being shoveled out the doors of every CU and chartered bank on the block, this train is not stopping. Trudeau will not suffer a realty collapse on his watch; money will pour in from overseas unabated. The banks win as CMHC props the ponzi party. Boomers need buyers, we don’t grow our own, we import them. Canadian kids can’t afford to house families because living costs too high. Too bad. Guess we can always move back to where we came from ;)

#67 government debt on 04.25.16 at 11:42 pm

Rates will rise again in the U.S. in 2016 and in Canada in 2017. — Garth

===

Governments are in huge debt both in the US and Canada.

Why would governments support raising interest rate to service those debt obligations?

#68 45north on 04.25.16 at 11:43 pm

People are starting to drive to their affordable mortgage. They drive until they say ‘I can afford to live here’

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/average-price-for-a-new-detached-home-in-the-gta-passes-the-1-million-mark

peak oil is real. Energy costs including gasoline will increase. people are buying houses further and further from the centre. They are mortgaged to the hilt. When gasoline goes up there will be no wiggle room: mortgage, car purchase, car maintenance at maximum – maximum that they can afford.

#69 Mr Happy on 04.25.16 at 11:48 pm

I sold…..

a million tacos in the bank Baby!!!

#70 WUL on 04.25.16 at 11:50 pm

Garth:

Those graphs you added are eye opening. Is there a shortage of money upcoming that will make money more expensive?

I will leave it to the experts here (charts and all that) to advise if the markets have great legs in YVR and Hogtown.

#71 JP on 04.25.16 at 11:50 pm

Met a boomer who owns 5 houses worth over 20 million in richmond and west end, he estimates they will be worth 50 mill within 10 yrs, will not sell even one until then. Dillusional or what?

#72 Brazil ex-pat on 04.25.16 at 11:54 pm

#48 Bottoms_Up on 04.25.16 at 9:57 pm
#22 Brazil ex-pat on 04.25.16 at 8:16 pm
————————-
And in brazil ex-pat’s world, jobs for border security, armed forces, resource development, trade promotion, prosecution, jail houses, policing, health care and child education would all go to the lowest bidder rather than highly qualified individuals wanting to work for the greater good….

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Oh….you mean just like in Canada? Where you wait 3.5 years to get a knee transplant?

http://www.cknw.com/2016/04/24/quesnel-woman-staging-hospital-sit-in-over-surgery-wait-times/

I keep saying this over and over again…both countries have problems. But in Brazil the weather is warmer, the food is better and the women are much hotter.

#73 Island Girl on 04.26.16 at 12:10 am

This weekend I had to listen to the BIL tell me how it really IS different in Vancouver and BC and that we are totally NOT in a bubble, and real estate can only go UP. I just rolled my eyes and uh huh’d him. He tried to tell me that all the houses are being bought with cash (at least 25% down) and lots of foreign money. That, and mortgages will go into the negative interest rate. Seriously, I didn’t think he was that out to lunch. Really wishing the “I told you so” moment would hurry up and get here.
He then asked me why we bought if we thought it was a bubble, I explained that we pay very little more than we would have paying rent (and that includes the property tax), and therefore I’m just renting from the bank, AND I didn’t buy the property as an investment, just a place to live.
I swear everyone I talk to is adamant that there is no bubble, they will never convince me though.

#74 Winterpeg on 04.26.16 at 12:43 am

Garth or blog dogs. What is your opinion on how much $$$ to sink into a place to “get it ready to sell”? Is it better to sell “as is” or renovate, and what renovations make sense to do to sell.
I hear lots of opinions on this. Can anyone weigh in?

#75 Dragonslayer on 04.26.16 at 12:53 am

Hey, VREU has been quiet lately. What gives? I miss the nightly dose of comedy.

How about I’ll start- Victoria sale prices of Romanian- owned SFH’s with an odd number address show a marked decline for the period 2007- 2013.

So be really careful. This market could turn on a dime. Any day now. It’s coming. Trust me. Soon…

And, yes, this post proves I’m a realtor. (not really, but I’ll play along) So got to run. I’m off to my next open!

#76 Rexx Rock on 04.26.16 at 1:39 am

Canada will follow the same road as Japan.The reason debt,debt and more debt.Canadians have to much debt and that’s why they can’t raise rates.

#77 Frank on 04.26.16 at 1:40 am

I will be supporting the rest of my cohort like a good citizen should. I’ll be one of those boomers who works until he dies.

Get ready for a rude awakening. You won’t be able to. Thanks to technology we are ever advancing the bounds of human mortality. We are extending the end of life range of people. Sadly, we’re not extending your 20’s, 30’s or even 40’s. We’re letting you live longer while you’re a wilted-skin covered sack of failing organs.

No one wants to employ this. Here’s a truth about old people, they’re just like kids: they’re smelly, annoying, talk slowly and inanely. All of this except they’re not cute. Like kids, the only old people you’re interested in are your own.

So if work-to-death is your retirement plan reality has a crueler fate. You’ll become slow and unwanted in the office. Sure, you’ll say that you’re better and ‘experienced’. You’ll lament that younger people cut corners and make mistakes but at the end of the day they’ll do twice the work at 90% of the quality. Guess what? That means they’re more productive. Plus they go for drinks after work, they can tell jokes about pop culture that you don’t get. They’re part of the office culture.

You’ll be forced out of work because the world moves on and you get older. Then your own friend medicine will keep you alive for another 15 years. So if you don’t have retirement savings you’re going to lead a sad life in squalor. Working to the end IS NOT A VIABLE life plan.

#78 Frank on 04.26.16 at 1:50 am

Garth and I disagree on the future direction of policy rates, but I do agree with his claim that mortgage rates are going to swell. After all, as housing prices continue to stagnate/decline, risk premia against mortgage lending is certain to rise

When in history have mortgage rates different significantly in direction or movement from interest rates?

As we’ve seen over the past few years, mortgage rates can stay the same or even rise, while policy rates fall.

They move together plus or minus a quarter point.

http://www.ratehub.ca/blog/files/2011/12/Mortgage-Rate-5-year-History-Graph-12.19-1024×612.png

There is no significant change in the price of mortgages without a change in interest rates. Period.

And when the BoC implements their next policy rate cut (maybe end of May), it wouldn’t surprise me if the banks once again refuse to pass on the full “savings” in terms of lowered “retail” rates.

Didn’t we do this last year? And then a couple of weeks later they did bring mortgages down? And then you said “see…see but it’s not the full quarter point” as if that was some victory. You’re brutal dude. You’re just constantly wrong. It hurts to watch.

#79 Bram on 04.26.16 at 1:56 am

#64 PVSinsight on 04.25.16 at 11:10 pm
Those who can wait, be patient. In five to ten years, deals will abound.

Boomers will have left big-city SF-Homes.
OTOH houses are constantly replaced by condos.

So a SFH for sale in a big city may become more rare, not less.

Rural houses or suburb houses? Sure. Urban SFH? Going slowly extinct, like they did in Manhattan, or DT Vancouver.

#80 nonplused on 04.26.16 at 2:13 am

Oh this explains it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIH-J3uLN3E

#81 Freedom First on 04.26.16 at 3:15 am

According to today’s Blog, many many many Canadians are living on the edge. Little savings, high overhead, and big debt. Between the Blog, and some of the comments, I smell a great deal of fear, greed, and idiocy. There is going to be hell to pay. Canadians are as dense and financially clueless as the Americans. Many Americans have not recovered from their mistakes. Blaming anyone other than yourself for being financially de-nutted is of no value. The consequences are yours. That is non negotiable. Own it.

#82 westcdn on 04.26.16 at 3:27 am

I guess I was meant to live – For whatever reason I don’t know. I should have been eaten a few times but my dog protected me – a Dalmatian. I cried when my father shot him but then that is another story.

So anyway, I was riding my bike down the road and hit a pothole. I ended up on my back in a ditch between two piles of boulders. I am lying there and looking at the blue sky thinking this hurts. Then a woman appears and asks if I am still alive – yep. She hauls my ass out of there and sends me home.

I needed money to go back to school so I reconciled (kind of) with my father in my late teens. The only time I saw him tear up when I won a few small scholarships after high school. I have to admit that a lump in my throat is common for me. The guys in the camp would ask if I was his son – yep. Apparently he was feared as a fighter. I will remember as he was dying that he said that he was mean to me because he wanted me to be able to take care of myself.

I was bucking the falls – cutting trees into logs, I don’t why but I looked up and saw my father dropped a tree on me. I did not have time to think. I tossed my saw and jumped into the first hole I saw. I waved at him after climbing through the branches. It could have different between us but such is life – I chose my mother after the divorce.

I marry and get two redhead freckled daughters. They were cool. My youngest played soccer and the team went to provincial finals. She was fast and smart – the opponents called her the red devil. I take no credit – she did it on her own. My eldest was fearsome too. She chose to play softball but without the success. She did marry a doctor and has two beautiful sons that make me proud. They are light – did I forget to mention my mother was Metis?

#83 family beagle on 04.26.16 at 4:11 am

– Boomers are still in the thick of empire building.
– Boomers will become increasingly judgemental, annoying, and talkative.
– If a .7 kid was in our family it was never mentioned.
– Millennials should be aware of two things: hope you can fix an aquaduct; boomers are about to dine and dash.
– Roller coaster charts, peaks and valleys, back we go.
-Zoomer care consortiums will milk the last buck zipping the bag. Pricier packages will subsidize econo-class. I heard a rumor some of these rich dudes are on their sixth heart? Here, a new elder facility sprung next to loonymart/clinic/grocery/bus. Big box shopping a walker jaunt away. A perfect sunset for the now generation.

– Congrats on your store. Hope there’s a hydrant nearby. Remember, when you get rich…buy all four corners.

#84 Caleb Joe on 04.26.16 at 4:29 am

Garth, you’re reading off Dr David Footes song sheet of 1996…20 years ago we were supposed to start seeing the effects of boom bust echo….hasn’t happened….the tsunami forecast is a non event dribble not powerful enough to effect the market…Boomers haven’t bought condo’s en masse….or moved into the bsmt.

“Thus, real estate equity will have to be crystallized in order to provide monthly cash flow. Already this is starting to show. ”

20 years is a long time to wait …as Foote has had to do.

What has happened is the BOC has forced rates down to zero and forced seniors to crystallize Seniors who thought they’d saved enough are now binning like rats behind the food bank….they walked right into the waiting arms of the CRA…..and all that extra federal revenue has ended up in the pockets of civil servants.

#85 Brian on 04.26.16 at 7:10 am

Here is what is planned. All levels of government are united in this plan.

They are planning on implementing BASIC GUARANTEED INCOME for Canadians. Though the details are still being defined it will work like this: EVERYONE will be guaranteed a basic income of, say 18k a year.

To pay for it, ALL social programs will be eliminated. No more welfare, no more EI, no more CPP, no more OAS, no more GIS.

But there’s a catch.

You get your 18k but for every dollar that you earn you LOSE 50 cents of the basic guaranteed income.

So if you have followed conventional wisdom, your rrsp will throw off cash that will quickly cancel out your basic income.

Bottom line, you LOSE CPP, OAS, etc.

In essence the guaranteed basic income imposes a significant new Tax on your Rrsp holdings.

They don’t add tax, they just take away OAS and CPP, which amounts to taking your hard earned retirement savings.

Don’t believe me? Think I am full of shit?

Google “Canada basic income” and “Canada guaranteed income” and read what your government has already announced.

By the way, boomers who sell their homes to finance retirement will generate income with the money. And therefore will see no basic guaranteed income, and will also LOSE CPP AND OAS.

Bingo!

Your retirement is taxed! Your capital gain on your house sale…taxed through loss off CPP and OAS.

Pay close attention to this one folks.

Don’t let this slip under the radar. Garth blogged about it weeks ago and no one seemed to care. This is LITERALLY one of the biggest potential attacks on you retirement.

Ignore and you WILL LOSE OUT!

#86 pBrasseur on 04.26.16 at 8:05 am

The fact 56% of Boomers are starting to think this way should tell you something. – Garth

I think so. I know a number of people doing this right now or that have done it already. Some are moving to their secondary home, some are downsizing. They do it to accommodate their new lifestyle but also are making a conscious decision to get their finance back to a more viable place for the future. As retiring nears financial realities become more obvious and more pressing. Many who have bought big come to realize (duh…) that servicing their «dream house» during their retirement years is simply too expensive for their means, if not a financial nightmare.

This is obviously just the beginning of an inescapable tendency, as Garth says the numbers speak for themselves, the lack of financial assets associated to too much house (and debt) is bound to provoke a massive selloff, it’s only a matter of time.

As usual you want to be ahead of the crowd for this, for later many will realize they are poorer than they thought.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.16 at 8:23 am

@#72 Brazil expat
Brazil.
Where banks are required by law to have 2 armed guards.
Brazil.
Where the President is fighting impeachment and eventual jail.
Brazil.
Where the Zika virus runs rampamt and unchecked.
Brazil.
Where unemployment is over 10% and climbing.
Brazil.
Where the economy is in its worst slump since the 1930’s.
I could go on but these statements fall on the obstinately dim who can only brag about how “hot” the zika infected women are…….good luck with that.

Any more Olympic construction projects collapse and kill innocent people in the past week?

#88 Lana on 04.26.16 at 8:26 am

I took Garth’s advice a few years ago, and sold my house, invested the profits, and rented a house (basement apt. rented out to someone else). I would have gone into an apartment, but I am raising my teenage grandson, who has one more year of high school. Also, to be honest, I wasn’t ready to not have a backyard. I have a reliable financial advisor who also does my taxes. He gave me a wake-up call yesterday.

Until recently, I was working full-time (at 68) but was advised to either fully retire, or work part-time, because my taxes next year will be about the same amount as my husband’s retirement benefits–12,000. (he passed away last year). I’m down to 4 days a week, and probably should go to 3 days, but there is no one else who can do my job the other 2 days (non-profit charity).

If I do retire–what would I do with my time? I’m in good health, with no hobbies.

If I retire, I would be bringing in about $30,000 a year–not sure I could live on that, especially with another person to support. I would have to move to cheaper rent (paying $1500/month plus hydro), and so, then what–sit in an apartment and twiddle my thumbs?

I am at a crossroads in my life, with decisions to make, and it is stressful. Any advice?

#89 68 Shelby on 04.26.16 at 8:34 am

#29 Porsche on 04.25.16 at 8:37 pm

#17 not 1st on 04.25.16 at 7:43 pm

A comment from your posted link…

The average size of new houses built in the US has doubled since the 1950s, from about 1200 sq ft to about 2400 (quoting from memory). And then there are granite counters, etc. Heaven forbid a house should look “dated.” My first house, bought 46 years ago, cost exactly one year’s salary–$10,000. Anyone buying a house worth one year’s salary these days? I realize that this is a “get off my lawn kids” observation, but still….

We just bought out east for a 1.8 times annual salary. :)

#90 Hope & Change (Canada) on 04.26.16 at 8:36 am

#62 SI2K on 04.25.16 at 10:53 pm
#6: I agree. A few of my Gen X friends are already widows, and we’re only in our 40s. A few! There’s been some press recently about lifespan gains in the traditionally privileged classes stalling. We’ll see how the boomers do, but I’m starting to wonder if that recession took a huge bite out of the health of Gen X

I’m a GenX that refuses to work as an employee.

I work contract only through my corporation that serves many customers (more than enough not to be considered an employee by CRA) . I don’t want to be hired (aka owned) ever.

Ideally when I execute a contract, the product (I’m in IT) will be something that more than one customer will need. (Certainly this kind of contract will be prioritized above any other type)

Just another advantage of being a company rather than an employee. Given the correct structure, the intellectual property remains with my company rather than automatically getting transferred to my employer.

It goes without saying that I don’t do any ‘work for hire’ or other BS like that. Most of the time I provide the IP (my functional experience) and the skills to implement it (technical experience), so if these bozos expect I’m going to give the farm away for a couple of Gs$ they have another one coming.

#91 common sense on 04.26.16 at 8:47 am

#74 Winterpeg

Spend on whatever ADDS value to value to your place in the EYES of the buyer..no more , no less.

#92 AfterTheHouseSold on 04.26.16 at 8:53 am

#34 Scott in Gibsons
“Don’t worry about Boomer assets. It was an anomaly for peasants to accumulate that amount of wealth. The 0.01% are in the process of reclaiming it. Won’t take long.

From the link:
“For the majority of human history … there have been only two classes: aristocracy and peasantry.”

http://www.salon.com/2013/09/20/rip_the_middle_class_1946_2013/

#93 CJBob on 04.26.16 at 9:11 am

Garth – A new Re/Max poll conducted by Leger Research found that among Boomers aged 55 to 64, a whopping 56% are thinking about selling in order to muster a retirement nest egg
_______________
This is the funniest thing I’ve seen all month. Garth tells us not to believe anything a realtor tells us, then uses this ‘research’ to help prove a point.

In my neighbourhood in 905 the average person has lived in their homes forever and they aren’t moving. Next door is a lady who is 90, the other side a couple in their 60’s and they aren’t going anywhere. Been there 30+ years. People like the concept of downsizing when they get older, but when it comes to reality they don’t want to the hassle of moving and don’t want to give up their homes. The majority of boomers aren’t going anywhere until they are dragged from their homes.

#94 Sean on 04.26.16 at 9:26 am

I agree with a lot of the points here, but it feels like it will not be interest rate increases that cause this shift. It’s something unexpected. Rates have been on a downward trend for many decades now. There are spikes, but the trend has been down down down.

#95 Hope & Change (Canada) on 04.26.16 at 9:41 am

In my neighbourhood in 905 the average person has lived in their homes forever and they aren’t moving. Next door is a lady who is 90, the other side a couple in their 60’s and they aren’t going anywhere. Been there 30+ years. People like the concept of downsizing when they get older, but when it comes to reality they don’t want to the hassle of moving and don’t want to give up their homes. The majority of boomers aren’t going anywhere until they are dragged from their homes.

Sooner or later they will downsize. When one dies (usually the man), the woman will move into an apartment building.

It’s already happening all over Ontario where rents for apartments are way out of whack compared to the equivalent price of a SFH.

#96 BillyBob on 04.26.16 at 9:42 am

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.16 at 8:23 am
@#72 Brazil expat
Brazil.
Where banks are required by law to have 2 armed guards.
Brazil.
Where the President is fighting impeachment and eventual jail.
Brazil.
Where the Zika virus runs rampamt and unchecked.
Brazil.
Where unemployment is over 10% and climbing.
Brazil.
Where the economy is in its worst slump since the 1930’s.
I could go on but these statements fall on the obstinately dim who can only brag about how “hot” the zika infected women are…….good luck with that.

Any more Olympic construction projects collapse and kill innocent people in the past week?

====================================

Ahhh, smug little Canada…I take it you don’t get beyond the borders much?

Here’s the thing…Brazil ex-pat is completely correct about the weather, food and women. All are incomparably better in Brazil (and most other places, actually). But it doesn’t mean he/she won’t come “home” eventually and take advantage of the “free” healthcare and other supposed advantages that YOU have paid for all along with your taxes. Both having and eating the cake, so to speak. Smart. So if you need to compare yourself to the average Brazilian to feel better about being Canadian, fine. But realize that you’re arguing with an expat, not a Brazilian so it’s a bit silly to try and compare.

As far as the jabs about Brazilian politics being corrupt, don’t kid yourself. Canadian politicians and political system are every bit as corrupt (gracious blog host aside – and look where that got him.) The key difference is that Brazilians demonstrate in the streets and throw them out, while Canadians yawn, roll over, and get ready to take it again.

#97 cramar on 04.26.16 at 9:46 am

#19 Fed-up on 04.25.16 at 8:03 pm
“a whopping 56% are thinking about selling in order to muster a retirement nest egg”

Thinking of selling and actually selling are not the same. I realize this doesn’t indicate the over-all market but in my considerably sized extended family, I have dozens of aunt’s and uncles living in large homes who are in their 70’s and some in their 80’s. Not 1 has sold their home. This very consistent with the fact that there is almost no supply and hardly anyone is selling their homes regardless of age. Cool theory, but it is not materializing and hasn’t been for the last 15 years.

—————–

As the old adage says, “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

It depends a lot on where all your relatives are living. If Toronto, once RE prices start to drop, panic may set in. Like cracks in the dam. Once people start seeing the cracks, fear will ensue because that is the way human nature operates. Once panic starts, all these elderly could start for the door and the market could be flooded with senior nest eggs.

Realize that those now in their 70s & 80s are pre-boomers who were raised on frugality and saving. They don’t need to sell their paid-for homes. If stats are correct, the real boomers who are in financial distress will be more willing to dump their nest eggs in future, because they need to.

Many boomers I know (including myself) are planning to sell their house at some point and move into an apartment. Not because we have to financially, but to say goodbye to home ownership responsibility.

#98 Estrella on 04.26.16 at 9:56 am

Mr. Foote has something to say about boomers. Unfortunately we see that the contagion of foreign money has infected him. T2 obviously wrong in changing pension ages as a contrarion to Harper. How do you justify not moving from 65 to 67 when demographics prove people are working and living longer I will never understand. Furthermore Mr. Foote believes in a precent tax on selling investments to pay for healthcare . As if ! Read more here:

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/retirement-health-care-generations-taxation-1.3552609

#99 Cowtown realist on 04.26.16 at 10:04 am

To the resentful young tw*ts (you choose the vowel) who moan about the boomers entitlements; please grow up. Many of you cannot show up to work in time for meetings and buzz off early and only whinge like mad when you do appear expecting us to be impressed. You want a title, many shekels and perqs but shirk responsibility and try to shuffle your work into the too difficult drawer. Frankly, you are viewed in many workplaces as not being worth a pinch of raccoon sheissen. In most cases we got precious little from our folks when we were starting out. We had our kids early likely due to the amount of disease free love frolicking our generation did. We didn’t stay in Mom and Dad’s basement sullenly switching degree programs every quarter and eating their roast beef while decrying the world at their expense. Many of us left home early and if we didn’t work to fund Uni studies, we went to work and learned the business from the bottom up. In my case the oilpatch. We still had the work ethic ingrained from depression and war era parents. We worked like navvies when things were busy, days off came when the work was done or when spring breakup ocurred in the field. We miled out service company vehicles and appeared at work in all weather conditions at all hours of the clock even if we had a beer too many the night before. We recal sleeping in the Ford Hotel in winter if there was drilling trouble on location or had more rigs to look after than hours in the day. We managed to drive six hundred miles home to take in the kids concerts.
We weathered the industry downturns, there were several, doing what we had to do to get by. We recall running a sandwich shop, voicing radio ads and driving a hearse on occasion. When it came to buying houses the prices were relative to income and still looked too expensive to us. The interest rates when we got the first bungalow were about 13% and the banks looked at borrowers like they had mucus dripping from their noses and waterfalls behind their ears. We saved a bit here and there when we could. Furniture was eclectic, early orange crate until we had enough cash to upgrade. A new luxury car? Funny joke! Anyone who drove one to put on the dog was thought to be a poser. People who barely shaved didn’t drive Mercs or Caddies. People who biught big houses and furnished them on credit were looked at as being house poor which they still are btw. Vacations were mainly at home and in the early years we went to Hawaii once when the company owners felt we had a good year and picked lucky us to go. We raised kids to think sensibly, do what they enjoyed as a vocation and be careful with the dough. After you have lived and toiled for six or more decades you can comment on the experience you garnered. Don’t pretend to say we are “entitled” you callow twerp! to paraphrase Noel Coward; We have more wisdom in our tiniest fart than you have in your entire body. Go make yourself useful.

#100 Bonhomme Carnaval on 04.26.16 at 10:22 am

Dear Garth,

It appears that Neil Macdonald, of the CBC, had the same idea :

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/retirement-health-care-generations-taxation-1.3552609

Cheers

#101 cramar on 04.26.16 at 10:24 am

@ #88 Lana on 04.26.16 at 8:26 am

——————-

So why not use the spare time to do volunteer work? Since you work for a “non-profit” and want to cut back work due to financial reasons, why not do so and do volunteer work at the same place?

#102 BOOM! on 04.26.16 at 10:39 am

Oldest resident in my hometown passed away recently at 103. Still lived at home, this in a town population of 1347 people.

Also, my high school graduation class 1969 has finally lost 5 former classmates putting the death rate above 10% out of our class of 44.

Someone might inform BOOMER DEATH COUNTER #6 that perhaps, he is counting the Boomer generation’s leaving the scene a bit premature.

HA! Like much millennial thinking… perhaps a bit premature… incomplete…half-baked.

It’s all perspective, where’s yours?

M64WI

#103 cramar on 04.26.16 at 10:49 am

#21 Apocalypse2016 on 04.25.16 at 8:16 pm
Uh-oh :(

Zika case confirmed in Ontario, may be sexually transmitted

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/zika-1.3551916

This will be a total health catastrophe for Canada and the world very soon, sadly.

————

Here we go again:

SARS, Ebola, Zika!

How many have died worldwide so far? How many in North America? Ever?

When will North Americans get a grip on reality? Worry about the mosquito in the room and ignore the elephant!

In the U.S. about 1.5 million people will die this year alone due to chronic diseases, which according to the CDC are largely preventable! According to them, 7 of the top killers of Americans are largely preventable. The major killer is heart disease. Lifestyle! (If you want to worry about an infectious disease, worry about influenza!) Canada is little different.

These chronic diseases already cost the U.S. heath system in the $Ts per year!

Two diseases Alzheimer’s and Diabetes, if present trends continue, WILL each destroy the medical system.

With obesity rates continuing to rise, we don’t need Zika or any other new kid-on-the block. The elephant will stomp everyone!

#104 pBrasseur on 04.26.16 at 10:59 am

#93 CJBob

«The majority of boomers aren’t going anywhere until they are dragged from their homes.»

Of course, but you are missing the point. Even a minority is easily sufficient enough to sway the market and for them it is not so much about want, it’s about means and must.

#105 Grey Dog on 04.26.16 at 11:19 am

Winterpeg, I believe it really depends where you live. Someone I know in Owen Sound was told to leave their 40 yr home with minimal renos just as it. Sold after a few months, for what they thought it was worth.

Unionville 10 years ago, widow from Church sold her “needed work” home as is per agents advice, list price was lower, neighbours pissed at the low price bringing down the neighbourhood. Had 11 bidders and got a price she would never dream of. This was one of the first of the tear downs in the Varley village.

Today neighbours are de cluttering big time. Get rid of everything! Repaint everything. Chinese want everything to look like new. Many Chinese will even buy the furniture in the home, as long as they deem it tasteful. 5 years ago my next door neighbour spent 10k getting his house ready, including new blacktop, washing windows and eves troughs! Planting St Joseph in the garden, it worked! Sold first day. For more than asking.

#106 WallOfWorry on 04.26.16 at 11:23 am

While many here will be waiting for the housing correction when mortgage rates rise will unwittingly watch other financial assets shift and miss managing their overall economic well-being. Here is the latest GDP forecast for Q1. Time to wake-up people….the Fed is trying to prop up a financial system that needs to correct….with the US debt and the current growth, there will be one (if any) rate increase this year, and zero in Canada. More importantly, the contagion from negative interest rates and stimulus in Europe and Asia will continue the trend of foreign investment in Canada, with commodities have some form of a rebound. In short….the Canadian real estate calamity could be a ways off. I wish that it would just happen so that this blog could start to include a more diverse and interesting focus on overall financial wealth. yawn….

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1

#107 WallOfWorry on 04.26.16 at 11:32 am

If the US economy is doing well, with good paying jobs and the middle class buying “stuff” why is the rail freight back below the 2008/2009 crisis?

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/osea/seasonaladjustment/?PageVar=RAIL_FRT_INTERMODAL

#108 Apocalypse2016 on 04.26.16 at 11:34 am

TOTAL GLOBAL CATASTROPHE COMING!!!!!

It will all hit the fan right around the time of the Rio Olympics.

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/olympics/when-it-comes-to-dire-olympic-predictions-rio-2016-checks-all-the-boxes-100-days-before-games

-citizens in revolt
-Zika spreading disastrously
-Brazil’s worst depression since the 1930s
-raw sewage in the streets
-impeachment and political chaos
-fights with neighbouring countries

Plus ++++++++++

-Trump and the RNC explode America’s politics
-Putin moves again to steal more territory
-North Korea fires nukes
-global climate change crop failures and thousands of deaths
-refugees flooding everywhere due to war, drought and famine
-assassinations
-WAR!

This is IT!

2016 shaping up to be humanity’s worst year ever.

Will it be the last?

#109 Smoking Man on 04.26.16 at 11:40 am

Modern University what a waste of money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffOPImz4Rp0

#110 Noel on 04.26.16 at 11:40 am

“Plus, so long as prices rise, human nature (greed) prevents a majority from doing the rational thing, and bailing.”

________________

What a thoughtless and silly comment. The majority of people are greedy and irrational because they’re not selling their homes?

Meanwhile, back on planet earth where reality is a thing, most people aren’t selling their homes because they live there and don’t want to take on a massive risk of selling and buying into a tight rental market where they have far less control of their living situation.

#111 Stuff of the Stars on 04.26.16 at 11:44 am

SPAM and thirsty underwear is where’s it’s at…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/retiring-baby-boomers-push-spam-diaper-stocks-to-record-valuations/article29755131/

#112 rainclouds on 04.26.16 at 11:54 am

#72 Brazil “I keep saying this over and over again…both countries have problems”

Sigh, yes you do, note the link below doesn’t even touch on the current political debacle.

Give. It. A. Rest.

Comparing Canada and Brazil is simply peddling childish fiction. You are willfully ignorant or simply a troll…..

– chart, from The Economist, shows the 50 most murderous cities in the world – and Brazil is home to a mind-boggling 32 of them.

-Rio( on the low end of the scale) the host of the 2016 Olympic Games is barely safer than Compton, with a murder rate of 18.6 per 100,000 people each year.

-The bad news is that Brazil now has more than 10% of all the world’s murders.

-Cities such as Fortaleza or Natal are among the most violent in the world, with rates above 60 murders per 100,000.

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/violent-cities-world/

Yes I have been to Brazil and yes the people are friendly, and yes it is beautiful. No, I do not want to live there.

#113 Stuff of the Stars on 04.26.16 at 11:58 am

#92 AfterTheHouseSold on 04.26.16 at 8:53 am

#34 Scott in Gibsons
“Don’t worry about Boomer assets. It was an anomaly for peasants to accumulate that amount of wealth. The 0.01% are in the process of reclaiming it. Won’t take long.

From the link:
“For the majority of human history … there have been only two classes: aristocracy and peasantry.”

http://www.salon.com/2013/09/20/rip_the_middle_class_1946_2013/

Good article.. and apparently God Emperor Trump will solve all this.

#114 Fed-up on 04.26.16 at 12:00 pm

Wonderful.

This is almost too funny…

Canada is now banking on some speculative theory involving boomers getting old, sick, going broke and dying off in huge numbers in order to have an affordable real estate market, 15 years from now. And most who are currently waiting and need buy a home will be too old and sick themselves to care by then anyway.

What’s the next straw that we grasp at? A meteorite breaks in half and nails Vancouver and Toronto causing an 8% correction?

#115 proud papa on 04.26.16 at 12:19 pm

Somehow, the fact that more poor people are on welfare, receiving generous payments, does not seem to have made this country a nice place to live – not even for the poor on welfare, whose condition seems not noticeably better than when they were poor and off welfare. Something appears to have gone wrong; a liberal and compassionate social policy has bred all sorts of unanticipated and perverse consequences.
-Irving Kristol

Compassion is good but politicians have turned compassion into the welfare state.
-Thomas Sowell

#116 M on 04.26.16 at 12:36 pm

Maybe some hellicopter money..eh Garth ?

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/26/news/economy/central-banks-helicopter-money/index.html

#117 Noel on 04.26.16 at 12:56 pm

#99 Cowtown realist
______________

The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.

Socrates – 439 BC

#118 Moller on 04.26.16 at 1:20 pm

Canadian luxury homes are flying off the shelves…

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-toronto-became-the-worlds-hottest-luxury-home-market/

#119 Ace Goodheart on 04.26.16 at 1:27 pm

This situation with regard to mortgage interest rates is actually very easy to predict. Have a look here: This is the historical US Treasury Bond interest rate history over a hundred year period:

http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.ca/2010/11/100-years-of-bond-interest-rate-history.html

And here is historical Canadian five year mortgage rates from 1968 forward:

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/rates-historic-mortgage-interest-1951.htm

And here is the Bank of Canada rate, from 1940 forward to 2010:

http://www.lowestrates.ca/blog/fixed-or-variable-which-mortgage-should-you-choose-2015

You can see they’re all the same.

So if you want to know what Canadian mortgage rates are going to do, just have a look at what US treasury bonds are doing. These of course match up with the US Federal Reserve rate:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate

If the USA raises its core interest rate, then the ball is set in motion and Canadian 5 year mortgage rates will follow along. That is how it works. There’s no deviation from this. Historically, it is a 100% accurate method of predicting what the 5 year residential mortgage rate will be in Canada.

BUT we have another rather interesting problem, which the above does not take into account. We have had a fixed rate environment, with the Bank of Canada Rate remaining unchanged since September 8th, 2010. Prior to that we had two years of very low rates, meaning 8 years of a “rate environment”. As we know, mortgage rates are usually 5 years. Preferred shares also base their rate reset clauses on the yield on five year government of Canada bonds, plus a rate premium (which is usually now around 4-5%). This is now entirely based on the same very low interest rate.

So is all Government debt, Provincial and Federal, issued since about half way through 2008.

So are all corporate bonds issued in the last 8 years.

So are all (and I mean every single one) residential mortgages (there may be the occasional ten year mortgage out there but they are very rare).

What has happened, is the lake has frozen over, and everyone has moved out there to live. Towns and Cities have been built. People have forgotten how to live on dry land. We all are living on top of the most long term frozen interest rate lake ever seen in modern history.

That lake is melting.

What that means is anyone’s guess. Back in high school we learned that stable systems, that have existed in equalibrium for the longest time, are most sensitive to sudden disruptions. Chaotic, always changing systems have a much better ability to withstand changes (because they are always changing anyway).

So as the frozen interest rate lake that we all live on starts to melt, interesting things might happen. I think we are starting to see those things with regard to the wonderful “emerging” economy countries like Brazil and China.

We may also soon see what happens when someone who purchased a $900,000 home with $75,000.00 and a $4000.00 per month payment plan that they can just barely afford, learns that their monthly payment will be doubling, and tries to sell into an environment where everyone’s monthly payments are also doubling.

#120 TurnerNation on 04.26.16 at 1:41 pm

Scariest comment I’ve read in a long time is copied below.
Aristocrats (elite bloodlines like the royal families we serve – you’ll never hear a bad word against the brutal terrorist Saudi regime. They are A-ok in the eyes of the elite Bush, Clinton cabals who hold American VP or P roles since 1980. Yes she will win. Drumpf is a another actor. Paid instigator. They control us using non stop chaos.

Say what happened to the “Bath salts” people eating off faces trial balloon they tried on us. Zika is getting better milage. Same reason they rebranded “IS” from Al-q. International? Sophisticated? Where are those guys lately. Not needed. Trump is doing a better job at controlling our minds via media.)

…..
***”54 Scott in Gibsons on 04.25.16 at 8:51 pm
Don’t worry about Boomer assets. It was an anomaly for peasants to accumulate that amount of wealth. The 0.01% are in the process of reclaiming it. Won’t take long”***

#121 Renter's Revenge! on 04.26.16 at 1:48 pm

#117 Noel on 04.26.16 at 12:56 pm

I just thought I’d point out that Socrates was a prolific science fiction writer, and that quote you posted was actually from the prologue of his novel, “The Republic Strikes Back”. Amazingly, the novel was set in the year “2016 A.D.” (he also predicted the birth of a meddling but influential Jew 400 years after his death, and the advent of a calendar based on the man’s birthday 1600 years after his death). Socrates was truly a genius. You should read all the amazing things he predicted about “the greatest generation to ever exist” in his short story, “Annus Boomerus”.

#122 james on 04.26.16 at 1:48 pm

#109 Smoking Man on 04.26.16 at 11:40 am

Modern University what a waste of money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffOPImz4Rp0
…………………………………………………………………….
I’m sure your doctors were all saying that a few weeks ago when they gazed their eyes upon your slovenly neglected excuse for a body! “Well Doctor what a complete waste of time and money that was, look at what I have to work with now, a deluded Smoking Man.”

#123 Mark on 04.26.16 at 1:53 pm

“Didn’t we do this last year? And then a couple of weeks later they did bring mortgages down? And then you said “see…see but it’s not the full quarter point” as if that was some victory. You’re brutal dude. You’re just constantly wrong. It hurts to watch.”

Not wrong at all (and when I am, its a pretty rare event). And the banks didn’t back away from charging higher spreads. Those Prime – 0.9% specials characteristic of the mid 2000s not only are gone, but “Prime” itself is at a higher spread against the BoC policy rate than it has been in a very long time.

The end result is that the banks are becoming increasingly profitable. Bank stocks are gaining more value. And homeowners on mortgages are suffering stagnation and price declines. It was no mistake that the banks mostly quadrupled their stock prices in the 1990s on account of strong earnings growth. There’s no reason to believe a similar event couldn’t occur going forward as housing continues to stagnate/decline for the next decade or two. Unfortunate for homeowners, they’ll be enslaved to the bank, instead of taking advantage of this growth available to the owners of the bank. And other inversely correlated sectors, of course.

#124 A Canadian Abroad on 04.26.16 at 2:20 pm

“Millennials should be aware of two things. First, taxes are going up. Like, a lot. ” – Garth

This is exactly why we don’t invest in our RRSP’s. For us, by the time our RRSP’s mature, our tax rate will be higher than our working years. Then add in new higher taxes and that’s most likely then true for everyone else. Unless you have little in your RRSP or plan to take out only enough to not incur taxes at all.

RRSPs are for tax-shifting, not retirement. You are being foolish not using this device. — Garth

#125 Brazil ex-pat on 04.26.16 at 2:29 pm

I see the Zika virus scam has fully taken hold on this blog. But its filled mostly with sheeply Canadians so what else is new…..

And Brazil is the 5th biggest country in the world….and I choose not to live in Fortaleza for all the cherry pickers out there.

#126 Reach for the Stars on 04.26.16 at 2:58 pm

109 Smoking Man on 04.26.16 at 11:40 am

Modern University what a waste of money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffOPImz4Rp0

Don’t you have a billion dollar hedge fund to run in Boston?

#127 Al on 04.26.16 at 3:24 pm

As soon as T2 decides to tax residential real estate capital gains, the market will implode.

#128 boonerator on 04.26.16 at 3:55 pm

Watch for the news stories in the future:
“Elderly couple starve and freeze to death in a $2M house –
Mr and Mrs Bloggs did not have enough income producing assets to pay the hydro and buy sufficient food but could not bring themselves to sell their house worth millions. They could not bear the shame of becoming renters, said one of their friends”

#129 lee on 04.26.16 at 4:44 pm

#128,

Or they could sell their house, buy one for $1,000,000, and still have about $800,000 to boot around, and then they won’t have the shame of being a renter?

#130 lee on 04.26.16 at 4:46 pm

#127,

I assume you mean on principal residences?

It’ll never happen.

#131 Bram on 04.26.16 at 4:47 pm

#116 M on 04.26.16 at 12:36 pm
Maybe some hellicopter money..eh Garth ?

If I were to receive helicopter money, it would do little good to our economy:

Either I make an extra mortgage payment, or I buy some stocks.

It’s unlikely I would use helicopter money for consuming goods.

Bram

#132 Gregory Saulson on 04.26.16 at 4:59 pm

To Al

T2 Trudeau 2 like Kathleen Wynee and other Liberals don’t want to like the real estate market and those playing in it.

They will not tax capital gains but do other effective, tax revenue raising tactics like land increasing provincial land transfer taxes, adding new ones for cities and the Federal will do the same.

Carbon taxes in BC, cap and trade in Ontario have already started but I am sure other provinces have already done it too.

Property taxes for the education part has not been increased in years and that is another easy target. New and increased gasoline taxes, infrastructure taxes and cigarette taxes are others that will add billions more a year.

Don’t forget about the G.S.T. or H.S.T. part just for the federal government for every 1% point add $8 billion more a year. Provinces are anywhere from $500 million to $3 billion each.

They got it covered to make this real estate game keeping it going on and on.

#133 Widening Gyre on 04.26.16 at 5:05 pm

I just heard ScotiaMCleod just let go of a whole wack of Investment Advisors. They were just told to get out.

#134 Sotiri on 04.26.16 at 5:16 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/poloz-trade-economy-1.3553264

Lower interest rates may be the new normal, Stephen Poloz says.

What do you think Garth?

#135 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.26.16 at 5:17 pm

You’re just constantly wrong. It hurts to watch

lol truth haha

#136 Mark on 04.26.16 at 5:58 pm

“Lower interest rates may be the new normal, Stephen Poloz says.”

Basically he’s acknowledging the sort of calculus that I’ve put forward, that rates cannot sustainably exceed that or even match that of nominal economic growth over the long term. And nominal economic growth will be hard pressed to be at anything resembling the rates of the past. Especially with two of the largest contributors to Canadian GDP, the resource sector and the housing/FIRE sector, decelerating rapidly.

Expect more of the same sort of ‘jawboning’ from Poloz over the next month. Failing that, look for a policy rate cut at the end of May if the CAD$ continues to display deflationary tendencies.

#137 cramar on 04.26.16 at 6:11 pm

#119 Ace Goodheart on 04.26.16 at 1:27 pm

What has happened, is the lake has frozen over, and everyone has moved out there to live. Towns and Cities have been built. People have forgotten how to live on dry land. We all are living on top of the most long term frozen interest rate lake ever seen in modern history.

——-

Nice analogy! Very interesting. Thanks for this.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.16 at 6:39 pm

@#96 BillyBob

Nope, Havent been to Brazil. But I have several Brazilian friends that have chosen to immigrate here and would NEVER move back So I’d take their view over an Expat Canuck about how “great” everything is in Brazil.
As for the corrupt politicians, I think the reason their people turm out by the thousands to protest and beat the bezeezus out of pots and pans is due to the publics’ complete distrust of the judicial system where lawyers and judges can delay a hearing for decades…. at least we havent reached that judicial “grid lock”….yet.

@#125 brazil ExCanuck
Zika is “propaganda”? Pray tell what possible “upside” would Brasil gain by ruining their tourism in an Olympic year?

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/02/11/brazils-tourism-industry-hit-hard-by-zika/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiB1-_Frq3MAhUH0WMKHRLqC3gQFggTMAA&usg=AFQjCNEiAlrT-7LHXzkZYGWZwB0NpZMgpQ

1.5 million infected? Nah. Thats all lies.

I guess you know more than the CDC in Atlanta.

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.cdc.gov/zika/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjxkZvtrq3MAhVY-GMKHUdWBgUQFggUMAA&usg=AFQjCNG_WFvQFkdSDBUhDsxYN2tQGY1fnA

Because “they have an agenda” ie saving lives……

Please educate us poor, misinformed, skeptics that believe all the Zika references, as to your unimpeachable(sorry couldnt resist) Zika is a scam medical research sources….

#139 Metaxa on 04.26.16 at 7:07 pm

I have spent all my adult life constructing it so that my end result is a pleasurable existence for me and those around me. With significant success too.

After reading you all and digesting your thoughts on most everything I think I will go outside and eat worms.

My mother was a clinical psychologist and I can categorically state that some (all?) of you would really benefit from some deep talk therapy coupled with supervised LSD therapy.

#140 [email protected] on 04.26.16 at 7:35 pm

hahaha oil is 55 canadian dollars today, I remember in 2005 when oil prices like this was making headlines, and Alberta was booming.
10 years later, everybody forgot.

you keep saying Garth to sell, but answer this: do you have property in Vancouver or Toronto? are you selling them? Actions speak louder than words. You can argue that you are diversified, therefore you can have risk in those places. The fact is that it sucks to commute for 2 hours per day in traffic. Time is money.

#141 Entrepreneur on 04.26.16 at 8:54 pm

Harder to move when older: less body, less mind, less money, less energy, less will. The end is near and the drive is gone, especially seen youth having difficulty. Can see it in their eyes.

Down in Victoria, View Royal area is putting in a casino. Oh, that is one way to generate revenue. Hasn’t anyone ever told them that is the wrong avenue.

But with Basic Guaranteed Income and being replaced with the mechanical robots, how else are local government going to get revenue. Casinos are their answers but it is not right one.

The system is not right, the weather pattern is not normal. Wonder who is going to win? I will “place my bet” on the weather pattern.

#142 IKnow on 04.27.16 at 12:08 am

#114 Fed-up
……

What’s the next straw that we grasp at? A meteorite breaks in half and nails Vancouver and Toronto causing an 8% correction?

———————

Ha Ha but not if the meteorite hit Surrey instead of Richmond in YVR

#143 Doug in London on 04.27.16 at 9:40 am

Plus, so long as prices rise, human nature (greed) prevents a majority from doing the rational thing, and bailing.
—————————————————————
Really? I thought greed would motivate more people to sell now and cash in SPECTACULAR gains. Being the greedy pig I am, I would have cashed in my lottery winnings by now. Rarely do all the stars align so perfectly as now. In fact not only have all the stars in our local Milky Way Galaxy aligned perfectly, but all the stars in the ENTIRE UNIVERSE, including the part that’s so far away the light from it hasn’t reached us yet, lined up so perfectly for a time to sell. I’m 55 years old and don’t expect to live long enough to see such a PERFECT time to sell again in my lifetime. Are there any teenagers here reading this blog? If you take good care of your health, you might live long enough to see such an opportunity again, unlike old fogies like me.
So what’s going on here, is it a typically Canadian thing of waiting around for the government to tell these home owners when to sell?