Crispy

MOM modified

Last year my first ride was on my birthday. Mid-March. This year I rode in January, February, March and, yeah, yesterday. In Ontario. This is not right.

No wonder. This week came news that last month was the hottest March in the 137 years people have been writing this stuff down. It’s the eleventh month running that a new global temperature record has been set. Science guys are already forecasting 2016 will be the hottest year of all.

Ever since Blondie topped charts there’s been a new world temperature record set every three years. Fifteen of the warmest have occurred in the last sixteen. Dispute climate change all you want, but it’s time to load up on the SPF 30.

So why’s this news in a financial blog?

Simple. If you’re investing for a long time, say a decade or two before you need the retirement income, think hard about how much maple (or energy) you want to hold. Oil used to make up half of all this country’s exports, and that’s since plunged. While we’re the biggest supplier of black stuff to the US – and crude has recovered to more than $41 a barrel (pushing the dollar to 79 cents) – the days that Canada could dig stuff up and get by are coming to an end.

Pushed ahead by a new generation of energy-conscious, environmentally-aware lefty voters (with their irritating bike lanes and car-sharing) our own governments are starting to wage war on oil. Alberta, Ontario, BC, Quebec – they’re all on the carbon tax/cap-&-trade bandwagon, soon to be joined by the feds. The current oil collapse meanwhile has hollowed out the energy workforce, with workers drifting back home to the Maritimes, BC or elsewhere, selling their duallies with nutz and finding meaningful work building condos.

Meanwhile the World Economic Forum says oil demand will fall steadily over the next few decades as countries tax carbon and shift to green tech. So even if oil recovers to double today’s price, it would make a lot of Canada’s pricy oilsands bitumen barely worth digging up and cooking. In short, one of our major industries may end up gutted. Bummer.

At the same time, the nation’s long-term finances could deteriorate given the spending habits of the crew now managing the place. Late on a recent Friday the Department of Finance released docs showing at least $125 billion in red ink over the next four years as the federal Libs turn on the taps. Now the Parliamentary Budget Officer says T2’s decision to restore OAS funding to age 65 (instead of 67) will add another $11 billion in annual red ink. And did you catch the interesting factoid that most of those 25,000 refugees we graciously accepted arrived on commercial flights? That was a $30 million bill. No, they have not been asked to repay it.

So what?

Hmm. So we’re busy building a condo economy where a big share of GDP comes from all of us borrowing a boatload of money so we can buy inflated properties from each other. Some proof is below, courtesy of a chart maintained by blog dog Shawn. You can see ‘real estate’ segment now makes up about 13% of our entire GDP, which does not even include residential construction. This is twice the level experienced in California (about the same size economy as Canada) before it hit the real estate wall a decade ago, and started issuing IOUs.

ECONOMY

For the last few years this blog’s suggested you hold a minority of your portfolio’s growth assets in maple – actually with twice the exposure to US and international markets. In a 60/40 account, that would amount to about 17% in beaver and moose bits. The logic is simple. Never exit an asset class – since you have no idea what’s coming next – but also don’t overweight Canada just because you know the place. Given the fact the world’s getting crispier, voters are swinging left, the economy is being dangerously skewed to an inflated asset class and we’re embracing debt, the future is definitely not going to resemble the past.

And then there’s the wrinklie thing. Over 30% of  the population is entering their thirsty underwear years, ending careers, reducing consumption and about to suck up huge amounts of health care dollars – while collecting all that CPP and OAS. If you ever wonder what having too many old farts around will do to an economy, ponder Japan.

Conclusions? Draw your own. In the short-term, Canada has a nice bounce coming (already well in evidence). But if I were a moister, I’d be hitching my stars more broadly. That, and slathering sunscreen.

174 comments ↓

#1 That guy on 04.19.16 at 5:45 pm

Garth,

I think it would do you good to watch this clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_4ZqtDSP4c

Assuming you haven’t seen it on Reddit already.

What’s Reddit? — Garth

#2 Canadian on 04.19.16 at 5:55 pm

What about the 40% fixed side? Still focus on Canadian Fixed Income/Preferred? There are a couple international bond ETFs out there, I don’t hold any.

#3 Don't Lie on 04.19.16 at 5:56 pm

What’s Reddit? — Garth

You know exactly what it is Garth. About half of your blog pics come from there.

Nice try.

I have never been. Why would anyone leave this site? — Garth

#4 jess on 04.19.16 at 5:58 pm

DOJ is probing Cross-Ownership – anti trust

https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2016/03/31/cross-ownership-by-institutional-investors/

Horizontal Shareholding
https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2016/01/12/economic-downsides-and-antitrust-liability-risks-from-horizontal-shareholding/

#5 Love my Kia on 04.19.16 at 5:58 pm

You are forgetting about the massive Ring of Fire development in northern Ontario that contains everything from rare minerals to gold to iron in its reserves. Just no oil which is fine.

There still isn’t a land route to it yet, but they’re working on it.

Make things as efficient as you want, there will always be a demand for ‘things’.

#6 TRUMP on 04.19.16 at 6:02 pm

Where to put your money??

Adult diapers and old age homes !!!

#7 ILoveCharts on 04.19.16 at 6:06 pm

Garth: A challenge with your thesis is that it requires us to abandon hope in our nation. The difference between Japan and Canada is immigration. Japan shut the doors and they are paying the price. No one is opening the doors more widely than Canada. People from around the world want to come here for the safety and natural environment and they will build companies and turn this into a knowledge economy.

#8 Andrew Woburn on 04.19.16 at 6:07 pm

#83 Harbour on 04.18.16 at 9:36 pm
Making 200K a year in a town on an island that maybe has 100,000 people
====================

If you are referring to Vancouver Island, the current population exceeds 750,000 about half of which lives in the Victoria region. The Nanaimo area has about 100,000.
Vancouver Island has approximately the same population as New Brunswick and fifty percent more people than Newfoundland.

#9 Love my Kia on 04.19.16 at 6:08 pm

30 million dollar airline bill for 25000 refugees is a deal.

Harper went to watch a hockey game in Boston on military aircraft costing us 10 grand a hour. I sure hope that game didn’t go into overtime. The guy loved hockey so much I would imagine his love for the game cost us more than 30 million.

Justifying questionable spending by one politician by comparing it to questionable spending by another is a fail. — Garth

#10 Brian Ripley on 04.19.16 at 6:10 pm

“…the economy is being dangerously skewed to an inflated asset class and we’re embracing debt…” Garth

I have Ottawa data on my charts now… check out the MAR-MOI charts:
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html

Vancouver and Toronto all-residential monthly absorption rates are now heading for 75-80%.

Wow.

Even in Calgary the absorption rate is rising and heading for 25% off the recent low and aiming for a potential trend change to the upside as market participants buy the dip.

#11 Surkman on 04.19.16 at 6:13 pm

So buy a house in Tofino, enjoy the heat, sell solar panels and learn to surf?

#12 LH on 04.19.16 at 6:15 pm

I love you Garth
Even this horny real estate investor has finally learned the way of equities. This week I finally hit $1m usd in my stock portfolio. With time (a decade of further investment and returns) it may even exceed my C01 and C02 house portfolio.

And yes, it’s mostly in single names, not index.
80% US. I have too much maple as it is in real estate.

#13 High Energy Star Stuff on 04.19.16 at 6:15 pm

No wonder yer crispy and wrinkly.. SPF 200+ is where it’s now.

#14 Andrew on 04.19.16 at 6:18 pm

So with the whole “moving away from oil and into green technology” thing, is it a prudent move for a long-term portfolio to consider moving a small chunk into the green energy market?

I’ve been thinking it’s a smart move for some time, the whole world is almost on board with green energy these days and if not, will be soon I’m sure. It’s only a matter of time that it really takes off on a mass scale (when solar energy becomes more economically viable).

#15 Shawn on 04.19.16 at 6:25 pm

Thanks for Using my Chart

For those interested in a bit more detail around that chart and also figures on exports, here is a link to my reference article regarding the Canadian Economy.

http://www.investorsfriend.com/canadian-GDP-canadian-imports-and-exports/

Yeah, surprisingly energy and mining together are only 8% of GDP. And that actually over-states the case since the data does not yet fully reflect the massive price drops (for complicated reasons).

Energy slipped from the largest component of exports to the point where it is only about 12% of exports. That IS in current dollars and reflects the lower prices and is a seasonally adjusted annualized number as of December.

I don’t claim to understand the implications. But energy is definitely a smaller segment of the economy. Services are becoming ever larger as a percent of the economy. A service economy can in fact do very well (ask Manhattan). Hopefully, the economy can continue to do well even with energy as a somewhat smaller segment by volume and much smaller in dollars, Clearly, some people will be hammered by the reduction in the value and importance on the energy segment, others will benefit by the low prices.

Investors with balanced portfolios will continue to do okay, I suspect.

#16 Irish Stew on 04.19.16 at 6:29 pm

What is driving the CDN dollar up vs US dollar – anyone know? Predictions for the year?

#17 Toronto Dweller on 04.19.16 at 6:31 pm

And fellow Millenials can expect rising taxes, decreased services, and precarious employment and an insane housing market.

#18 Rainclouds on 04.19.16 at 6:34 pm

To help with context :

Does any know what is the historical average as a % of GDP for RE Selling, Managing, renting and leasing?

Regards.

#19 Doug t on 04.19.16 at 6:38 pm

Burn baby burn its a disco inferno

The hoosing market in victoria is on fire 2016 will be a scorcher

#20 ole Doberman on 04.19.16 at 6:39 pm

Gartho would the health sector be the place to be as wrinklies need more diapers?

#21 Love my Kia on 04.19.16 at 6:41 pm

30 million dollar airline bill for 25000 refugees is a deal.

Harper went to watch a hockey game in Boston on military aircraft costing us 10 grand a hour. I sure hope that game didn’t go into overtime. The guy loved hockey so much I would imagine his love for the game cost us more than 30 million.

Justifying questionable spending by one politician by comparing it to questionable spending by another is a fail. — Garth
************************

Big difference.

One expense is based on humanitarian need, the other is pure unadulterated pleasure. One is justified, the other is not.

#22 InterestRate on 04.19.16 at 6:44 pm

#16 Irish Stew

The canadian dollar is not going up, it is the US dollar that is going down. The US dollar was up because everyone believed that the Fed would raise interest rates 4 times this year… Now that the Fed is backtracking people finally start to realize that the Fed may raise maybe once more this year. So the US dollar just hit a 10 months low.

When people finally realize that they will never raise again the bottom will drop of the US Dollar.

Remember what happen to the stock market after they raised .25? They don’t want to risk that again

#23 Bob on 04.19.16 at 6:44 pm

Hi Garth
What to you propose about the fixed income side?
e.g. if you have something like the Canadian Couch Potato portfolio, your fixed income would be an ETF like the VAB.

Would this overweight you in Canadian exposure?
Do you have a different ETF for fixed income you would recommend? (or at least, highlight a few and let us draw our own conclusions?)

thx

#24 common sense on 04.19.16 at 6:48 pm

#13 High Star

#200 Sun screen? Why not go Full Berka like me.

Works wonders

#25 common sense on 04.19.16 at 6:50 pm

Nice to see mentioned the reality of the demographic factor just starting to rear it’s head around the world.

Japan, China, Canada, Europe…look to India where their demographic chart is inverted compared to us.

#26 paul on 04.19.16 at 6:51 pm

#16 Irish Stew on 04.19.16 at 6:29 pm
What is driving the CDN dollar up vs US dollar – anyone know? Predictions for the year?
———————————————————————–
CND not going up USD coming down.

#27 Bolton McKague on 04.19.16 at 6:52 pm

Stay right balanced and you’ll be super safe with your investments. Take bigger risks and you might get a bigger or small biscuit. Global Warming brings opportunities for Canada as more people want to come here to escape the heat. Bullish for Canada long term?

#28 Alberta Ed on 04.19.16 at 6:54 pm

Just tanked up the Harley with antiquated old fossil fuel, and if global temperatures do go up and stay there (doubtful), it means several more months of riding weather. Gonna be a while before batteries replace gas, if ever. Junk Science, Climate Depot and numerous other independent sources provide a refreshing antidote to government/MSM-generated climate stories.

#29 Panhead on 04.19.16 at 6:57 pm

#13 High Energy Star Stuff on 04.19.16 at 6:15 pm

No wonder yer crispy and wrinkly.. SPF 200+ is where it’s now.

Is it bitumen? Maybe a new future for Alberta you got there … Green Bitumen SPF 500 … nice ring to it …

#30 tundra pete on 04.19.16 at 7:02 pm

We have 25 000 new refugees and a 30 million dollar airline invoice yet hundreds, if not thousands, of aboriginal Canadians are left in deplorable conditions and have been for years. Not completely the work of T2 and his crew but a crisis just the same.

At least T2 did promise more money for these issues during his campaign but actions do speak louder than words. Let us hope it is productive promises, as well as practice and not just an inquiry down the road to determine where all the money went.

#31 For those about to flop... on 04.19.16 at 7:11 pm

When I saw the title Crispy I thought you were going to write a post about Christy Clarke and the B.C Liberals and then I remembered we don’t mock our political leaders here.

I have the Metrosexual Messiah,Lego Head and the Cheshire Cat to back me up on this…

M41BC

#32 Shawn on 04.19.16 at 7:11 pm

#16 Irish Stew on 04.19.16 at 6:29 pm
What is driving the CDN dollar up vs US dollar – anyone know? Predictions for the year?

**********************************
Canadian dollar is up because oil is up a lot from the lows and because it over-shot to the downside on low oil.

Predictions – it will fluctuate.

Few will win consistently at the game of predicting currency movements. Better to react than predict.

If you have 30% in the U.S. and our dollar falls you harvest gains to rebalance. If it rises a lot you try to get back to 30% by transferring investments form Canadian to U.S. dollars.

Keep in mind the currency exposure of a company comes from where it earns its money not where it trades. A few large Canadian companies earn most of their money in the U.S. and should really be considered U.S. dollar exposure.

#33 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 04.19.16 at 7:11 pm

“duallies with nutz”… I love Garth speak.

Every time I see a pair of these in traffic, hanging behind an oversized truck (like the size of his pickup wasn’t already overkill)… I think “ok who are you, man?” No shame whatsoever?!

#34 Mark on 04.19.16 at 7:18 pm

“30 million dollar airline bill for 25000 refugees is a deal.”

Indeed. From Syria, and assuming that the plane dead-headed empty one way, that’s almost beneath the average seat mile cost of most airlines.

“What is driving the CDN dollar up vs US dollar – anyone know? “

Global macro factors and domestic housing price-decline-led deflationary forces.

I don’t give yearly predictions (can get in a lot of trouble for that), but the CAD$ eventually will be worth $1.3-$1.5 USD$ at some point in the future. An inversion of the circumstances which caused the USD$ to be worth $1.3-$1.5 CAD$.

#35 For those about to flop... on 04.19.16 at 7:19 pm

Nice work Shawn,you wouldn’t happen to have any spare time to help VREU with her charts would you?

The color and the organization….no one warned me of that…

M41BC

#36 Ronaldo on 04.19.16 at 7:21 pm

I am investing in solar energy in this fashion. So far it’s worked out very well and surely to improve as solar energy gets into high gear.

https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/silver-in-technology/silver-in-green/solar-energy/

#37 Frank on 04.19.16 at 7:21 pm

We’ve always been a resource economy. We’re the second biggest country so I guess land is a resource. We’ll just sell that to the rest of the world for the next 50 years.

#38 For those about to flop... on 04.19.16 at 7:24 pm

4 common sense on 04.19.16 at 6:48 pm
#13 High Star

#200 Sun screen? Why not go Full Berka like me.

Works wonders

/////////////////////////////

White Berka? I wouldn’t go black…you will get cooked from the inside out.

Maybe I’ll try it with some popcorn in my pocket…

M41BC

#39 conan on 04.19.16 at 7:35 pm

Intel cutting 10 percent of their employees. Probably wise to evaluate your tech holdings and jettison the over priced poo that made you money.

Invest the proceeds in Canada as it has momentum. We could see the dollarette rise another 3 percent before the pendulum swings in the other direction.

#40 Freedom First on 04.19.16 at 7:37 pm

Yes. I love to cycle and work out. But I am also a spoiled Boomer, in the middle of the Boomer cycle. An air conditioned car, with cruise, tilt/telescopic steering, remote starter with power entry/windows, and of course, an air conditioned abode, with underground parking and on site gym have become a part of my necessities. Lucky me. I am blessed. I even get to work out of my home office. No Boss, no wife, no co-workers. Perfect. That is my #1 rule of my 2 rule lifestyle. Look after myself, and help others. Very very important. The better I am able to look after myself, the better I am able to help others. I need both to be happy. I know. Been doing it for decades.

Yes. Global warming is a reality. As sure as the fact that Toronto and Vancouver are going to have a scary RE correction for hundreds of thousands of people. Always painful to watch bubbles pop. Even though I will profit from it. As always.

#41 Shawn on 04.19.16 at 7:38 pm

Selling, Managing, Renting and Leasing Real Estate

Rainclouds on 04.19.16 at 6:34 pm asked:

To help with context :

Does any know what is the historical average as a % of GDP for RE Selling, Managing, renting and leasing?

Regards.

*************************

Good point, it’s been very large for the entire time I have tracked it which started in 2007. It used to be combined with Finance and insurance together they were 20 to 21%, and that has not changed.

Keep in mind this selling, managing, renting and leasing real estate at about 13% of GDP and which is the largest component of GDP EXCLUDES the actual construction of that real estate.

So, real estate is HUGE. Is that a surprise? Maybe not. When I was in about grade 1 we were taught that the three essentials of life were food, clothing and shelter.

When you think about it real estate is the defining common characteristic of every urban location. What is a City but real estate? So yeah, real estate is huge.

The following link gives data back to 1997 if you choose the right options.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=3790031&&pattern=&stByVal=1&p1=1&p2=-1&tabMode=dataTable&csid=#customizeTab

Or Google CANSIM table 379-0031 and then click the link to add / remove data.

#42 Carlyle on 04.19.16 at 7:39 pm

27 degrees here in Red Deer Alberta.

Having moved here in January for government work I can’t believe the weather compared to Toronto and most of the locals have stated how weird it is to have these kind of temperatures at this time of the year. With our 8.3 percent unemployment rate plenty of people can enjoy the heat too.

#43 I'm stupid on 04.19.16 at 7:43 pm

I don’t understand why someone would make home ownership a priority in their life. I’m guessing it’s because they view it as a road to riches. What you should be doing is figuring out what you really want because if you strip away capital appreciation from housing I can bet most won’t lust for it.

I want $300k a year for the rest of my life (inflation ajusted)without having to go work and before I hit 55. That’s a very clear objective, I know how big my portfolio needs to be and what rate of return I need. Having clear objectives makes you focused and once you chart a path to your objective the rest is just noise. The earlier you plan the easier it is to achieve. I have 20 years to get there and I’m further ahead than I imagined. A life of servitude is no life at all!

#44 For those about to flop... on 04.19.16 at 7:46 pm

Hey Common,this is a picture of me in 50 degree weather in Eygpt.

I probably should have covered up but then I wouldn’t have looked like a tourist…

M41BC

https://imgur.com/wGqwMp2

#45 steerage steward on 04.19.16 at 7:46 pm

270 page government report detailing what we can expect along the coasts by 2100 as a result of climate change:

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/earthsciences/files/pdf/NRCAN_fullBook%20%20accessible.pdf

Not too concerned about housing being under water as renters can always move, however the years of recreational sockeye fishing may be numbered.

#46 RayofLight on 04.19.16 at 7:46 pm

I agree climate change is real & inevitable. I would suspect how it would play out is the hot areas get hotter and dryer. Coastal communities will be threatened with rising sea levels. By this scenario, the US could suffer more than Canada as the populated eastern seaboard floods and the south & south west becomes drought stricken. There may be a possibility that Canada could be a net benefiter, because perhaps some of the northern land areas could become warm enough to become arable. That would be when the US sends in the Marines & we become the 52nd state.

#47 Shawn on 04.19.16 at 7:46 pm

GDP and Wealth creation

Since we are on the topic, I was recently re-reading Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nation and he indicated that back in 1776 there was a theory, popular in France particularly, that all true wealth came only from Agriculture. Manufacturing was said not to add any real wealth.

This was because the ground itself produced agricultural “wealth” whereas manufacturing only produced what humans put in.

Today, many think that manufacturing and mining and oil production and such produces all the true wealth while services do not produce real wealth.

That is not correct, services do produce real wealth.

Still we cannot make a strong economy by simply paying each other to rub each others feet. (Though it might be fun to try for a while).

Others think that exports are crucial to produce wealth. That can be easily proved false by simply observing that the earth is wealthy but exports absolutely nothing.

Producing anything of value, anything others will pay for produces wealth.

#48 Imalwaysright on 04.19.16 at 7:53 pm

At purplish debit machine inside bank last week,teller was helping elderly lady work the machine.Teller went into selling mode telling senior about employee rate mortgages at 2 per cent in case her kids need a mortgage. Wrinkly said her kids were set up but she was thinking of buying a home herself. She was pushing 70.I walked away at that point.
Today my co-worker renewed at Scotia. I told him above 2 per cent story,asked him what he renewed at and he didn’t know.

#49 Victor V on 04.19.16 at 7:53 pm

Re: 25,000 Syrians

In a few years, when those refugees become settled and gain citizenship, which party do you think they’ll be voting, volunteering and fundraising for provincially and federally?

Realpolitik.

#50 BOOM! on 04.19.16 at 7:55 pm

Another day of modest gains on Wall St. One would assume with the $$ falling, all the Doom & Gloom talk we would be selling used Truck Nutz, and abused old Fords?

NOT!! Decided to “Bank” a few non-hard earned $$ today selling off some of that crap I bought when the markets were tanking in Jan & Feb.

Did 12 times the GIC’s annual returns in under 3 months.

Thank You for panic selling, it’s suckers like ‘you’ who pay for weasel geezers like me!

So will take some as CASH (short term tax rates, but that’s ok) to pay for those new prime 2 lots here in town.
Maybe this place will turn into the next HOT RE market?…

No, thinking of building a nice twin home 3 bed, 2 bath, geezer friendly joint where me and the squeeze live on one side, and a decent young family can rent the other with a good break in rent for maintenance chores. If not, then rent it at market, and hire the chores. Either way I’m good with it.

Fun day, Lou a new friend celebrated her 73rd birthday, and was in fine spirits. I am really enjoying this retirement gig the more I get into it. One word of caution, as you approach it, be debt free, with a nice nest egg in the bank! Nobody gives a dam if you own, or rent.
Nobody is gonna subsidize your retirement either. The Gov’t is broke. No new taxes? No new benefits. Get used to that thinking, the retired will likely not help raise many taxes going forward. Why would they?

#51 Yuus bin Haad on 04.19.16 at 8:01 pm

Simulated duallies and plastic nutz? How I long for the good old days of rear wings on Civics – those were innocent times.

#52 jaybee on 04.19.16 at 8:03 pm

Your blog posts about your store opening are far less depressing. How about a post about that on here? Or puppies or something?

#53 TurnerNation on 04.19.16 at 8:07 pm

On the one clear sky day we’re allowed each week look up and watch the cloudy trails disperse and give us that haze by the pm.. It’s not cars
It’s not carbon. Rolling back to the stone age is their goal. 3rd world countries get bombed. We get economically bombed.

#54 Roasted gonads on 04.19.16 at 8:07 pm

How’s the hummer driving? Do you use biofuels or converted it to an electric version with solar panels on the roof?

Bandit pulls it. — Garth

#55 BS on 04.19.16 at 8:10 pm

Love my Kia on 04.19.16 at 6:41 pm
30 million dollar airline bill for 25000 refugees is a deal.

Harper went to watch a hockey game in Boston on military aircraft costing us 10 grand a hour. I sure hope that game didn’t go into overtime. The guy loved hockey so much I would imagine his love for the game cost us more than 30 million.

Justifying questionable spending by one politician by comparing it to questionable spending by another is a fail. — Garth
************************

Big difference.

One expense is based on humanitarian need, the other is pure unadulterated pleasure. One is justified, the other is not.

And which category would this be in?

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/48-000-spent-on-grounded-flight-crew-during-pm-s-caribbean-vacation-1.2824018

#56 common sense on 04.19.16 at 8:12 pm

#55 Flopper

Cool Picture. I’m calling you DIME HEAD from now on.

Yes when away as a tourist, might as well go full tourist and at least dress the part.

M54ON

#57 AK on 04.19.16 at 8:15 pm

#34 Mark on 04.19.16 at 7:18 pm

“I don’t give yearly predictions (can get in a lot of trouble for that), but the CAD$ eventually will be worth $1.3-$1.5 USD$ at some point in the future. An inversion of the circumstances which caused the USD$ to be worth $1.3-$1.5 CAD$.”
====================================

I am going to go out on a limb and say that the bush league loonie will never again be at or over par with the Green Buck…

#58 Love my Kia on 04.19.16 at 8:19 pm

BS on 04.19.16 at 8:10 pm
Love my Kia on 04.19.16 at 6:41 pm
30 million dollar airline bill for 25000 refugees is a deal.

Harper went to watch a hockey game in Boston on military aircraft costing us 10 grand a hour. I sure hope that game didn’t go into overtime. The guy loved hockey so much I would imagine his love for the game cost us more than 30 million.

Justifying questionable spending by one politician by comparing it to questionable spending by another is a fail. — Garth
************************

Big difference.

One expense is based on humanitarian need, the other is pure unadulterated pleasure. One is justified, the other is not.

And which category would this be in?

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/48-000-spent-on-grounded-flight-crew-during-pm-s-caribbean-vacation-1.2824018
***************
That would also be unadulterated pleasure, albeit per hour cost is less than Harpers.

I’m surprised you didn’t know that.

#59 PeterfromCalgary on 04.19.16 at 8:33 pm

Carbon taxes are just another tax which does nothing to protect the environment.

#60 For those about to flop... on 04.19.16 at 8:34 pm

The wildfires in Alberta must be an unwanted expenditure for the province during this downturn…

#staysafe

M41BC

#61 bdy sktrn on 04.19.16 at 8:41 pm

electric car sales FALLING. vs gas

“…That amounted to only 0.4% of the record 17.4 million cars sold in the United States in 2015. Throw in the hybrids, and the electric-car industry’s sales totaled 498,426 last year, but that still was a mere 2.9% of the market.

In addition, the *** industry’s sales and market share fell from 2014***, when sales totaled 570,945 and accounted for 3.5% of overall U.S. car purchases.

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-agenda-electric-cars-20160411-snap-htmlstory.html

#62 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.19.16 at 8:43 pm

This week I finally hit $1m usd in my stock portfolio. With time (a decade of further investment and returns) it may even exceed my C01 and C02 house portfolio.

congrats! nice job

#63 Roasted gonads on 04.19.16 at 8:45 pm

#34 Mark on 04.19.16 at 7:18 pm

“What is driving the CDN dollar up vs US dollar – anyone know? “

Global macro factors and domestic housing price-decline-led deflationary forces.

I don’t give yearly predictions (can get in a lot of trouble for that), but the CAD$ eventually will be worth $1.3-$1.5 USD$ at some point in the future. An inversion of the circumstances which caused the USD$ to be worth $1.3-$1.5 CAD$.

WOW, just WOW, what a howler!!!.. That can be a hundred year prediction and you’ll still be spectacularly wrong!!!!!!

#64 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.19.16 at 8:45 pm

What is driving the CDN dollar up vs US dollar – anyone know?

gdp, job growth, BoC, oil

#65 Roasted gonads on 04.19.16 at 8:47 pm

#53 TurnerNation on 04.19.16 at 8:07 pm

On the one clear sky day we’re allowed each week look up and watch the cloudy trails disperse and give us that haze by the pm.. It’s not cars
It’s not carbon. Rolling back to the stone age is their goal. 3rd world countries get bombed. We get economically bombed.

Not the chemtrail crap again……….

#66 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.19.16 at 8:47 pm

The hoosing market in victoria is on fire 2016 will be a scorcher

seems like it. victoria and kelowna next

#67 Chris on 04.19.16 at 8:48 pm

Good post (except for the unneccesary jab at the Prime Minister – you got to learn to let that go). I disagree with most of what you say, but at least it’s interesting to read. I buy single stocks not indexes, and my holdings are largely Canadian, but Canadian companies who do business with the US and the rest of the world, so I consider them global companies. If you buy individual stocks you can control your allocation to things like energy. I also disagree that energy use is going down – still billions of low income people in India, China etc who strive to move to the middle class, which means more energy use, even as we become more efficient. Plus all those wrinklies will crank the heat to 90 as they age, so nat gas will need to spike. And all those Millenials will grow up and get married, have kids and buy vehicles. It hasn’t changed, just shifted the curve to a slightly older age, that’s all. More interesing post than the typical RE post tho, that’s for sure – you can only say the same thing so many ways before it gets repetitive, repetitive, repetitive….etc.

#68 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.19.16 at 8:49 pm

One expense is based on humanitarian need, the other is pure unadulterated pleasure

if humanitarian need is a goal then aboriginals have them

#69 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.19.16 at 8:51 pm

I don’t give yearly predictions (can get in a lot of trouble for that)

agreed cuz they’ve all been wrong

#70 Ontheledge on 04.19.16 at 8:51 pm

I appreciate the balanced approach that you promote Garth and for most this will serve them well as the core of their investment portfolio. Oil and Gas E&P co’s are increasingly being viewed as trades rather than for their long term prospects, and rightly so. Finding a “green” alternative is difficult (but not impossible) and many do not have the desireable “wide moat”. Especially Solar. However, anyone seeking a “green” (loosely applied) investment alternative should consider uranium and the Nuclear industry in general. The Fukushima disaster sent the entire sector into the toilet and the market has remained vastly oversupplied since then and this situation remains intact. Currently there are 440 commercial nuclear power reactors globally that supply 11% of global electricity demand, and in the next 5 years there will be over 550 commercial reactors. Japan has approved the restart of 5 of its reactors with 19 pending regulatory approval. Meanwhile the price of uranium (U3O8) is trading at 10 year lows, down 80% from its 2007 high. Globally, Canada is the second largest U3O8 producer. Stock prices are just coming back to life after years of malaise. It looks like the bottom is finally in and there is a meaningful margin of safety for those prepared to take a position. Buy when its quiet, sell when its a riot.

#71 LOSS OF COMMUNITY on 04.19.16 at 8:52 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/san-franciscos-real-estate-war-2016-1#ooid=dkbXNqMDE6KzX3gKlLOi89H55PxQ3iYy

SAME THING IS HAPPENING IN VANCOUVER, LOSS OF COMMUNITY AND ARTISTS

#72 Bram on 04.19.16 at 8:54 pm

Oh well, banks seem to do good business.
Look what Canadian Western Bank(TSE:CWB) did today! +6.58%

Some day my kids will thank me for putting it into their RESP.

Still lotsa cheap stuff to buy on our domestic market, with low multiples and high div yields.
I’m not worried about the future of maple.

Bram

#73 Arfmooocat on 04.19.16 at 8:55 pm

#36 Ronaldo on 04.19.16 at 7:21 pm
I am investing in solar energy in this fashion. So far it’s worked out very well and surely to improve as solar energy gets into high gear.

……………………………………………………………………….

Check out SUNE…. biggest solar power company on the planet. Was $36 and now it’s .30 cents on the verge of BK in less than a year

http://www.sunedison.com/

#74 Red Deer Rob on 04.19.16 at 8:57 pm

@42 Carlyle

Yes, it’s perfect weather for being out of work. Gives me time to work on my tan.

#75 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.19.16 at 8:57 pm

I am going to go out on a limb and say that the bush league loonie will never again be at or over par with the Green Buck…

bold

savvy of blog dogs made out like bandits when the usdcad rose from 1.13 to 1.45. and called it all the way. many then pocketed the gains once it bounced to 1.4

during that time others made the opposite prediction and made nothing haha

good luck!

#76 Damper Closed on 04.19.16 at 9:03 pm

Like a duel between rival street gangs, two Chinese construction firms have taken their feud to the streets.

http://canadajournal.net/science/bulldozers-battle-northern-china-streets-video-46462-2016/

#77 Roasted gonads on 04.19.16 at 9:09 pm

Hey Dime Head Flopper… is this you too?

https://imgur.com/gallery/rZkNnCk


44 For those about to flop… on 04.19.16 at 7:46 pm

Hey Common,this is a picture of me in 50 degree weather in Eygpt.

I probably should have covered up but then I wouldn’t have looked like a tourist…

M41BC

https://imgur.com/wGqwMp2

#78 conan on 04.19.16 at 9:13 pm

Good luck with your new General Store business Garth.
Did you have to do extensive work on the foundation? That is quite the crack that developed……… are you going to sell cauliflower?

Did you not notice the cauliflower caulking? — Garth

#79 conan on 04.19.16 at 9:19 pm

I did actually. Hey, if you want to make some bank on the ice cream end of it consider selling this flavor….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_tail_ice_cream

#80 Damper Closed on 04.19.16 at 9:26 pm

More on refugees from Craza Erza.

http://www.therebel.media/faith_goldy_in_halifax?utm_campaign=stopthecoverup&utm_medium=email&utm_source=therebel

#81 Balmuto on 04.19.16 at 9:35 pm

#47 Shawn

“Others think that exports are crucial to produce wealth. That can be easily proved false by simply observing that the earth is wealthy but exports absolutely nothing.”

Nice. That’s a good one. Never thought about it that way.

#82 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.19.16 at 9:37 pm

WOW, just WOW, what a howler!!!.. That can be a hundred year prediction and you’ll still be spectacularly wrong!!!!!!

youre new to all his wrong calls over the years are you? lol

hint when he’s wrong, he says it was a multi-decade call lol

see: Barrick, gold, deflation, YVR/YYZ real estate, gold, blackberry, bombardier, usdcad, etc

#83 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.19.16 at 9:38 pm

my buddy and I are looking at real estate but not where u guys think

#84 Fed-up on 04.19.16 at 9:46 pm

I thought the reason that it took Yellen so long to make that 1st measly .25% increase was because she wanted to wait until the path was clear to consistently raise rates 4 times per year for the next 3-4 years and this was all priced into the market.

What the heck happened? :s

#85 Cici on 04.19.16 at 9:51 pm

#5 LovemyKia

That sounds like the Ontarian version of Quebec’s Plan Nord…in other words, political bluffery to inspire short-term voter satisfaction. It will cost a fortune to launch, yet will never take off or amount to much other than new debt for provincial taxpayers.

#86 Gerald Bootler on 04.19.16 at 9:54 pm

Sure….global warming…right…..exists only since the wack job president Obama has been allowed his pet ‘legacy’ project to keep a boot to the idea? Otherwise the climate change thing is a massive fraud covered up by the lack of El Nino recognition….also no sun spots….the same ‘science’ you’re alluding to points towards the resumption of a massive cooling trend into what could become decades perhaps centuries of global cooling…and the trillion dollars Obama spent on his legacy will be just another fools errand for us tax payers.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/616937/GLOBAL-COOLING-Decade-long-ice-age-predicted-as-sun-hibernates

The global warming BS promoted by Obama has been hijacked by those who want to shut down wall st etc….it’s all been a shiitte campaign.

#87 Bank of Millennial on 04.19.16 at 9:57 pm

Check out what just happened with the house flogging “Love it or List it”

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/19/entertainment/love-it-list-it-hgtv-suit/index.html

#88 For those about to flop... on 04.19.16 at 10:00 pm

#82 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.19.16 at 9:38 pm
my buddy and I are looking at real estate but not where u guys think

/////////////////////////////

There is plenty of vacant real estate between your ears…

M41BC

#oneformark

#89 Harbour on 04.19.16 at 10:11 pm

Manitoba Election Results Come In and The Orange Sweep Continues

#90 Ace Goodheart on 04.19.16 at 10:15 pm

Well it’s finally happened:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16786351/18-COBALT-ST-Toronto-Ontario-M6M2K2-Mount-Dennis

The million dollar Mount Dennis house. Unthinkable just a few short years ago, back when we were still as unfashionable as the Junction used to be.

The last affordable neighbourhood in Toronto is quickly becoming a home to McMansions, Lexi (is that a word, plural of Lexus) and fast walking people who love Starbucks.

If the Feds really do borrow 125 billion, then they are going to print 125 billion to pay it back. When that happens, you do not want to be heavily exposed to cash. No matter what interest rates end up doing.

#91 Brydle604 on 04.19.16 at 10:19 pm

89 Harbour
Correction
WINNIPEG — Manitoba’s Progressive Conservatives stormed to power Tuesday with a majority that ends 16 years of NDP government in the province.

#92 wallflower on 04.19.16 at 10:20 pm

#25 common sense on 04.19.16 at 6:50 pm
Nice to see mentioned the reality of the demographic factor just starting to rear it’s head around the world.

Japan, China, Canada, Europe…look to India where their demographic chart is inverted compared to us.

=====
Nigeria. Average age is 18 and has been holding steady for years.

#93 PRESIDENT TRUMP on 04.19.16 at 10:26 pm

The Trump train rolls on………….

#94 Harbour on 04.19.16 at 10:30 pm

#91 Brydle604 on 04.19.16 at 10:19 pm
………………………………………………………………

Sorry, don’t know what my Facebook bud was posting then

#95 Mark on 04.19.16 at 10:42 pm

“There is plenty of vacant real estate between your ears…”

Lol, hilarious. But on a more serious note, he alleges that I’ve recommended the purchase of individual securities. He alleges that I’ve recommended the purchase of certain forex positions. I have done nothing of the sort. I’ve certainly discussed macro factors, but have not given timeframes.

Curiously he conveniently forgets to remember that I pushed the deflationary thesis and lower interest rates in Canada even when it was completely unpopular and unheard of in the mainstream community. Probably almost got banned by Garth a few times on such account as well. I called the top of the Canadian RE market 3 years ago which, in hindsight, proved to be remarkably accurate, coincident with the CMHC changes of Budget 2013. And he might be interested to know that I actually did go long USD$ during the slide (reversing my position from the $1.10 area that I rode down to $1.2), selling it recently and completely recovering my losses and locking in a very competitive cost base for the rest of my USD$ short exposure.

Not only that, but I implicitly pounded the table for the precious metals miners a few months ago. The results over the past 2 months have been nothing less than spectacular as it is becoming increasingly widely acknowledged that the global economy suffers severe overcapacity.

But anyways, this isn’t about ego. “WalMark” wants it to be, but its really not. Its a discussion board to discuss the RE bubble, and the profound implications of its collapse, being over-exposed to RE, and being unbalanced in one’s portfolio. I happen to think that Garth gives us the dogs a pretty long leash, but some dogs certainly abuse the privilege to quite an unfortunate extent.

#96 Apocalypse2016 on 04.19.16 at 11:00 pm

GLOBAL HEALTH ALERT!!!

Good on you, Garth, for challenging the climate change deniers. Within a decade, two at most, the climate disaster will be the story of our lives. If we live that long…..

But right now, we face a monumental health crisis for which we are totally unprepared. The Zika virus is spreading exponentially, doubling every week in Brazil and Puerto Rico.

And it is NOW IN CANADA!!!!!!

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2016/04/19/two-pregnant-bc-women-infected-with-zika-virus

This does not just affect fetuses. It can severely disable
and kill adult humans. There is no cure, not even a vaccine for it.

It is spreading faster than any sickness in recent human memory. This, combined with political chaos, will destabilize and possibly destroy the Rio Olympics.

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-april-18-2016-1.3540491/zika-s-ground-zero-brazil-hits-4-000-suspected-zika-related-cases-of-birth-defects-1.3540497

This is microcephaly, and a lot more. Doubling, growing exponentially every week, and the best scientists have no clue how it is doing that.

The world is facing a major disruption, just days and weeks from now.

(However, the microcephaly will be barely noticeable in this comments section, with all the realtors and climate change deniers already on here)

#97 TurnerNation on 04.19.16 at 11:03 pm

#65. Nope. I walk to work every day and look upwards. And in the pm. Watch it and see.
You saying I’m blind?
I tested 20/20 vision last year. Not bad for age 40.

Today I checked, 30-40% of people walking towards me had the telltale white earbuds in. Hear no evil. See no evil. Bread and circuses.

#98 WUL on 04.19.16 at 11:04 pm

420 tomorrow. Low productivity at Bay and King. Bong water spilled on the snazzy carpets in the executive suites. Party on 1%ers. I’ll bring the munchies.

#99 For those about to flop... on 04.19.16 at 11:05 pm

#95 Mark on 04.19.16 at 10:42 pm
“There is plenty of vacant real estate between your ears…”

Lol, hilarious. But on a more serious note, he alleges that I’ve recommended the purchase of individual securities. He alleges that I’ve recommended the purchase of certain forex positions. I have done nothing of the sort. I’ve certainly discussed macro factors, but have not given timeframes.

Curiously he conveniently forgets to remember that I pushed the deflationary thesis and lower interest rates in Canada even when it was completely unpopular and unheard of in the mainstream community. Probably almost got banned by Garth a few times on such account as well. I called the top of the Canadian RE market 3 years ago which, in hindsight, proved to be remarkably accurate, coincident with the CMHC changes of Budget 2013. And he might be interested to know that I actually did go long USD$ during the slide (reversing my position from the $1.10 area that I rode down to $1.2), selling it recently and completely recovering my losses and locking in a very competitive cost base for the rest of my USD$ short exposure.

Not only that, but I implicitly pounded the table for the precious metals miners a few months ago. The results over the past 2 months have been nothing less than spectacular as it is becoming increasingly widely acknowledged that the global economy suffers severe overcapacity.

But anyways, this isn’t about ego. “WalMark” wants it to be, but its really not. Its a discussion board to discuss the RE bubble, and the profound implications of its collapse, being over-exposed to RE, and being unbalanced in one’s portfolio. I happen to think that Garth gives us the dogs a pretty long leash, but some dogs certainly abuse the privilege to quite an unfortunate extent.

/////////////////////////////

Calm down cowboy ,don’t go patting yourself on the back too hard you’ll hurt your shoulder.
I thought I’d help you out with Walmark since you took my Ross Kay joke like a champ.
You’ve got the gift of the gab….you seriously been unemployed all that time?
Someone must have some use for you,even a call centre manager or something.

Anyway don’t you think you should ignore Walmark to get rid of him or can’t you help yourself?

We’ll probably never be blog buddies but I will try to help you get rid of your cyst.

You draw attention to yourself but you probably don’t deserve to be stalked…

M41BC

#100 Ronaldo on 04.20.16 at 12:02 am

So there yu hav it. Medium price of homes in Vancouver to increase to 1.1 mil according to Mr. Yu.

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/4/dont-expect-vancouver-real-estate-cool-anytime-soo/

#101 Linda on 04.20.16 at 12:08 am

Before everyone writes off oil they might want to check out what is happening with sunspot activity. Apparently solar activity may be heading into what is known as a Maunder minimum. Last time it happened (1645-1700) the ‘Little Ice Age’ occurred. A number of physicists have been studying solar activity & have reason to believe the Earth is headed into a period of prolonged chill, which they expect to peak between the years 2030 to 2040.

This doesn’t mean that the global temperatures we are experiencing now is something we can afford to ignore. Nor does it mean we shouldn’t try to find better ways to provide the energy we require w/o wrecking the planet. Incidentally oil is used for far more than providing fuel/heat. So it will still be in demand for quite some time to come.

#102 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 04.20.16 at 12:08 am

BLOGGER STUPIDITY ALERT
———
#96 Apocalypse2016 on 04.19.16 at 11:00 pm

GLOBAL HEALTH ALERT!!!

Good on you, Garth, for challenging the climate change deniers. Within a decade, two at most, the climate disaster will be the story of our lives. If we live that long…..

But right now, we face a monumental health crisis for which we are totally unprepared. The Zika virus is spreading exponentially, doubling every week in Brazil and Puerto Rico.

And it is NOW IN CANADA!!!!!!

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2016/04/19/two-pregnant-bc-women-infected-with-zika-virus

This does not just affect fetuses. It can severely disable
and kill adult humans. There is no cure, not even a vaccine for it.

It is spreading faster than any sickness in recent human memory. This, combined with political chaos, will destabilize and possibly destroy the Rio Olympics.

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-april-18-2016-1.3540491/zika-s-ground-zero-brazil-hits-4-000-suspected-zika-related-cases-of-birth-defects-1.3540497

This is microcephaly, and a lot more. Doubling, growing exponentially every week, and the best scientists have no clue how it is doing that.

The world is facing a major disruption, just days and weeks from now.

(However, the microcephaly will be barely noticeable in this comments section, with all the realtors and climate change deniers already on here)

#103 Balmuto on 04.20.16 at 12:14 am

#95 Mark

“I called the top of the Canadian RE market 3 years ago which, in hindsight, proved to be remarkably accurate, coincident with the CMHC changes of Budget 2013.”

Many of us called a top for the RE market in 2013 on account of the CMHC changes but unlike you we have the integrity to admit that we were wrong. You’ve failed to convince anyone on this blog that prices have actually fallen (or is it “stagnated” now?) from that point. And yet you repeat this tirelessly as though it were fact. Nobody’s impressed.

#104 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 04.20.16 at 12:17 am

The daily morning squadrons…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrUm0KY8dJA

#97 TurnerNation on 04.19.16 at 11:03 pm

#65. Nope. I walk to work every day and look upwards. And in the pm. Watch it and see.
You saying I’m blind?
I tested 20/20 vision last year. Not bad for age 40.

Today I checked, 30-40% of people walking towards me had the telltale white earbuds in. Hear no evil. See no evil. Bread and circuses.

#105 Tony on 04.20.16 at 12:24 am

Re: #10 Brian Ripley on 04.19.16 at 6:10 pm

Real estate prices are falling sharply in Ottawa. Many that couldn’t sell are trying to rent their homes, apartments, or townhouses out. A bad move in a falling market. I couldn’t make heads or tails of your charts.

#106 Tony on 04.20.16 at 12:32 am

#70 Ontheledge on 04.19.16 at 8:51 pm

Uranium prices and the Baltic Dry Index can’t be manipulated like everything else today. The price of uranium is reflecting the true state of the world economy as is the Baltic Dry Index. The smart money will be selling all commodities into (October 03, 2016) and after the U.S. election this November not buying uranium.

#107 Karl hungus on 04.20.16 at 12:38 am

Geez man, do you know how many uses for oil there is? Asphalt roads, plastics, lubricants, gasoline just to name a few. What do you think you build solar panels with ? Oil! There will always be a demand.

#108 SWL1976 on 04.20.16 at 12:42 am

Great post.

If people don’t think that natural climate change mixed with geoengineering, cloud seeding, global dimming, or whatever one wants to call what is going on in our skies isn’t going to sucker punch humanity right in the face…

Then I’ll have what your having cause reality for future generations somewhat sucks right now.

Anyways, I have abandon any hope for any sort of normalcy or rational thinking to take place.

Interesting times filled with less interesting people.

While my balanced and diversified portfolio like the one Garth suggests has been churning along nicely, my tinfoil portfolio is knocking it outta the park lately. Like I said normalcy and rational thinking in this world seem to be a lost art.

Things are not what they seem and they are definitely not what we have been told or are being told.

Us crazies are not so crazy, and I take no pride in saying so.

Time will soon tell, but if this year’s federal election south of the border is a prelude of what’s to come…

One might to try a little more understanding

#109 Bottoms_Up on 04.20.16 at 1:08 am

#28 Alberta Ed on 04.19.16 at 6:54 pm
————————–
The research from your independent sources are largely funded by the oil industry, and if you look close enough you’ll see most of their work is not “on target”.

Batteries are replacing gas….Tesla model 3 (a fully electric vehicle in case you didn’t know) presales will soon pass 400,000. That’s 400,000 less cars not spewing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere…

Think of it this way–if we had actually wanted to warm our planet, what would be an excellent way to do it? That’s right, have everyone burn fossil fuels on a daily basis in their vehicles thus ramping up the greenhouse gases in our atmosphere…

#110 to_be_frank on 04.20.16 at 2:03 am

#7 I Love Charts – The facts don’t support your theory. Canada has among the highest per capita immigration rates in the world, which has been the case for several decades. If immigration causes prosperity then we should be the most prosperous country with the most robust economy on the planet by now, but we are not, and in fact are falling further behind. Our federal government has committed to multi-year deficits in an effort to stimulate growth, while immigrant-rich Ontario has a serious structural deficit.

As for the baby-boom generation distorting the demography of Japan (with Canada and other western countries soon to follow) this will gradually correct itself as most of the old people die off over the next 20 years — the demographic pyramid will then re-assert a normal profile.

#111 Winterpeg on 04.20.16 at 2:17 am

While most of the rest of the country leaning left, Manitoba rolled back to the right. PC majority. Another example of tiredness for the reigning party (NDP of 16 years), so out they go.
Interesting times ahead. PC Leader Pallister not a union lover as one might guess. I work in Health Care; highly unionized, but I even think there might be some room to improve delivery of services over what the NDP were doing. (though I might be eating my words later)

#112 Smoking Man on 04.20.16 at 2:29 am

Amazing, alcohol withdrawal, my hands shaking like I’m having an epileptic eposode in the poker room. Totally mind fkd my opponents. Walked away with 4.7g

They helped me stack my chips with every win. Felt sorry for me. My dealer so worried got security to come with a blood presure machine. All was good.

I forced down two beers which stopped the shaking.

Had two cigarettes , big mistake, my fever slayed that bastard addiction. Guess you just can’t change your programming that easily. Going to work on it.

Vegas tomorrow. Area 51 on Friday. I’m crossing the line by two feet. See if I get that 600 dollar fine from the camo dudes.

Life is short. Enjoy and push every moment.

#113 Dennis Fremin on 04.20.16 at 2:41 am

Garth, the climate change scam has been an agenda driven fraud from the very beginning, beginning with the sustainable development funding debate. Anyone with half a brain knows the truth about the ‘97% of scientists agree’ nonsense.

The reality is that the ‘climate change’ debate will go away as soon as Obama has the boot of the US government off…which is months from now….but…the so called ‘crusaders ‘ will then become the criminals…and that should be fun.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/clarifications-corrections/526191/Climate-change-is-a-lie-global-warming-not-real-claims-weather-channel-founder

#114 robot powered economy on 04.20.16 at 3:01 am

#47 Shawn

Producing anything of value, anything others will pay for produces wealth.

==

Exactly. Perfect pragmatism.

I would add to do that: with as little human labor as possible, as soon as possible.

With this you have the most productive, most efficient, most profitable economy, that can make a country with low population the first nation where people don’t have to work for living.

This might be as revolutionary as manufacturing proved to be, although in the Bible of Capitalism, Adam Smith’s book manufacturing was said not to add any real wealth.

The next big step in economy is to switch from human powered economy to robot powered economy, as fully, as possible.

A society where only the smartest people continue to work for living, because their knowledge is the most difficult to automate will unleash great additional creation of value.

Automation has a long, proven, indisputable track record to do better, cheaper than human labor, where the technology is adequate for a task. Especially in the area of producing or servicing “stuff”.

Additional benefit, that enabling people to do only what they like to do the most, driven out of passion, can create more commercial value of “hobby activities” than doing what they “must” do for living.

Canada is extremely well positioned to get to this next economy:

1) resources are available for the robot powered economy to create high value-added products, instead of low value-added raw material export

2) relatively educated population

3) close geo, political, cultural, economical, financial proximity to a leading tech and major consuming country, USA

4) low population, which is a huge advantage for this type of economy, especially in the transition period: figuratively speaking, it is easier for the robots to provide fewer people with living income, while products, services can be exported to countries with large population.

In a robot powered economy low population is a huge advantage, the exact opposite of human powered economies.

5) In a robot powered economy people can live happier life, that can reduce health care cost, offsetting the financial burden of an aging population.

6) Robot powered economy is a broad socio-economical framework, yet gives fairly clear guideline that can create all the incentives to break down the goals to all sectors, for all actors of the economy, even at small business level.

Politically it requires to break from all job creation programs, instead all these resources should go to “robots” and living income for people to make room for automation.

Canada is just starting a big spending program to “STIMULATE the economy” to keep alive the human powered economy.

This should be stopped and all the resources should be going to TRANSFORM from human powered economy to robot powered economy.

What Canada does not have:

1) Visionary political, economical leadership class
2) The entrepreneurial spirit and drive in Canada truly sucks compared to countries, like the US

#115 Bloke in England on 04.20.16 at 3:03 am

As far as oil / CO2 / green hysteria is concerned there must be some sort of political effort going on over here to raise the international virtue-signalling profile of your hip’n’handsome PM. T2’s picture is oot and aboot above stories telling how he’ll save the world, clad only in dark suit, shirt and tie, by pushing for ultra-rapid adoption of the terms of the Paris Agreement. One more in the goolies for your oil patch.

As for record temperatures – hmm. Maybe. The world’s not nearly as warm as a thousand years ago; in between, it got much colder. It repeats way back into prehistory. The climate changes; who knew? Might be glad of all that oil one day…

#116 White Crock on 04.20.16 at 4:28 am

Any one seen The Loonie Watcher?…. sure hope he’s ok.

I miss his wacky predictions

#117 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 04.20.16 at 5:06 am

#89 Harbour on 04.19.16 at 10:11 pm
Manitoba Election Results Come In and The Orange Sweep Continues
——–
… it was gift wrapped by Selinger himself.

#118 drydock on 04.20.16 at 6:13 am

#11 Surkman on 04.19.16 at 6:13 pm

So buy a house in Tofino, enjoy the heat, sell solar panels and learn to surf?

010101010101010101010101

Ever hear about melting ice?

#119 Happy 420 to Everyone! on 04.20.16 at 7:08 am

Hiya Gartho!

How about some investment advice for how to tap into the booming cannabis production and retail sectors across Canada?

Are there ETFs or particular stocks you could recommend so blog dogs could profit from the coming upswing?

We know Harper kicked you out of cabinet for showing up to your obedience training sessions totally wasted and high, and he really had no choice. So get over it, let’s move on and make money, dude!

Have a spiffy, spliffy 420 everybody :) :) :)

#120 salonist on 04.20.16 at 7:12 am

mark is in the house, unencumbered.

sm, 17% of people who drink alcohol abuse it,please
stop it, you may have in the past and you do not drink now

it’s a horrible disease and for you to get your jollies off of another’s mysery.shame on you.

#121 maxx on 04.20.16 at 7:22 am

#17 Toronto Dweller on 04.19.16 at 6:31 pm

“And fellow Millenials can expect rising taxes, decreased services, and precarious employment and an insane housing market.”

Precarious employment and fire-hose spending by governments at all levels are the ones I’m most concerned about, with precarious employment being by far the biggest concern.

The future is not looking good – no matter what media relations folk crank out. It’s a grinding, increasingly competitive labour market and will be for decades to come as good jobs continue to evaporate.

Many millennials will never get off the ground financially, regardless of how much printed money is fire-hosed into the economy and actually getting a decent job will be like winning the lottery – if that doesn’t disappear soon after. Multi-Mcjobs and premature ageing await.

Job security is completely and utterly a thing of the past.

Save like there’s no tomorrow and push your wealth into the future, or live your fragile later years in misery.

Far too many boomers are already there with many more to come. Reverse mortgages and the consumer debt of seniors are on the rise. The net benefits of borrowing to the economy no longer exist on any scale that makes a positive difference.

There’s almost nothing as frightening as poverty or its specter.

#122 Linda on 04.20.16 at 7:51 am

#110 – Frank, your take on demographics needs a bit of a reality check. The oldest baby boomers are either 70 or will turn 70 this year. Baby boom in Canada went to 1966. The youngest boomers are turning 50 this year. With the exception of some global plague (vide Spanish influenza) cutting one heck of a swath in the numbers ‘the old folks’ are still going to be around 20 years from now. Granted, the oldest baby boomers will likely have thinned out quite a bit by then, but there will be plenty of younger boomers (& aging Gen x,y,z etc.) to take their place.

As for Japan’s wrinklies diminishing, it still shows as a global leader in aged population by the year 2050, with the rest of the world rapidly catching up. Buy age related stocks, they are going to do very well. Funeral homes too.

#123 Andrewt on 04.20.16 at 8:35 am

#113 Dennis Fremin on 04.20.16 at 2:41 am
Garth, the climate change scam has been an agenda driven fraud from the very beginning, beginning with the sustainable development funding debate. Anyone with half a brain knows the truth about the ‘97% of scientists agree’ nonsense.

The reality is that the ‘climate change’ debate will go away as soon as Obama has the boot of the US government off…which is months from now….but…the so called ‘crusaders ‘ will then become the criminals…and that should be fun.
—-
Oh great. Another non-scientist cited as an authority on science. As for professor Happer, cited in the article:

In December 2015 Happer was caught in a sting by the environmental activist group Greenpeace; posing as consultants for a Middle Eastern oil and gas company, they asked Happer to write a report touting the benefits of rising carbon emissions. Concerned that the report might not be trusted if it was known that it was commissioned by an oil company, Happer discussed ways to obscure the funding. Happer asked that the fee be donated to the climate-change skeptic organization CO2 Coalition, who suggested he reach out to the Donors Trust, in order to keep the source of funds secret; hiding funding in this way is lawful under US law. Happer acknowledged that his report would probably not pass peer-review with a scientific journal.[28]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Happer

Say it with me slow. We know what the properties of carbon are, and what effect they have in the atmosphere.
We can tell how much there was in the atmosphere before and how much there is now.
(We’ve come a long way, baby)
We know how much we, as humans, are adding to it and we know what a feedback loop is.
If you can wrap your head around compound interest this should be child’s play.

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.16 at 8:44 am

@ Apocalypse 2016

Yawn.
I’m sorry. Did you say something?

#125 Dave in Kincardine on 04.20.16 at 8:56 am

Complaints about $30 mil to ship refugees here misses the point in my opinion. We need a large and willing work force to support you old bastards in retirement with all the social programs (health care, OAS, CPP, roads, muni taxes etc etc). It is called a win win. They get a life and Garth gets to retire with benefits. Ship more!!!

Traditionally newcomers have paid for their passage, or repaid it over time, as they become established and are able. — Garth

#126 NoName on 04.20.16 at 9:03 am

#114 robot powered economy

Robot powered ecomy is everywhere, not just in manufacturing, got there first in form of simple mechanical machines and progressed to programmable bit “smarter” machine. Robots disrupt manual labour but it cat eliminate it 100%, at least not yet.

Raw material cost and man hours to build something is usually constant, but labour cost, energy and business friendly jurisdiction are big variable.
Think like this plant in Mexico or china, probably uses same technology as one here but labour is way cheaper and you don’t have to heat a building 4-5 months in a year. And i am not to mention how lax are those two countrys are when it comes to environmental…

Manufactiring start leaving Canada around same time when ATMs and kiosks started moving in. Noone sow it coming robots full frontal assault on service industry, I don’t think that anyone put anything quantifiable how much that it will cost society we live in. I can go on how more and more difficult it will be to brake upwards from one social level to another, but that is something what each individual have to desire and starve for, it won’t work for a group as a hole.

One thing about Canada is that we really never experience real competition and now in last 2 decades we were cut of guard and we are not adapting fast enough.

What I see as a big problem for my kids generation (10-13) is robot social industry, is people are socializing with echader using robots as a medium…

And bigest problem is robot bartending, it scares a $#!7 out of me, where can I get an hour long shrink session for price of few beers.

We are all doomed !!!
https://youtu.be/xzGzf0S0WqI

#127 This has to stop on 04.20.16 at 9:23 am

Dad (Sir Garth), please make Mark stop.

#128 Shawn on 04.20.16 at 9:27 am

Robot Economy? Good or Bad

Robot economy at 114 sees the good in this.

Noname at 126 fears it.

*****************************
I have pointed out before, the obvious response to the jobless robot economy is to position yourself and your family as owners of the robots. (Meant here as a broad term covering all automated production and software that produces things and services with little to no labour).

The investor class will be the winners. Save and invest in equities now or end up on the wrong side of the future class divide.

Be a winner or a whiner, it’s your choice.

#129 Smoking Man on 04.20.16 at 9:28 am

23 Andrewt on 04.20.16 at 8:35 am
#113 Dennis Fremin on 04.20.16 at 2:41 am
Garth, the climate change scam has been an agenda driven fraud from the very beginning, beginning with the sustainable development funding debate. Anyone with half a brain knows the truth about the ‘97% of scientists agree’ nonsense.

The reality is that the ‘climate change’ debate will go away as soon as Obama has the boot of the US government off…which is months from now….but…the so called ‘crusaders ‘ will then become the criminals…and that should be fun.
……..

Climate change is a 1.5 trillion dollar industry world wide. It’s also a religion.

On may 2 a documentary is coming out that will be responsable for the enlightenment of the masses.

It’s called climate hustle.

#130 Andrewt on 04.20.16 at 9:29 am

Hiya Gartho!

How about some investment advice for how to tap into the booming cannabis production and retail sectors across Canada?

Are there ETFs or particular stocks you could recommend so blog dogs could profit from the coming upswing?

We know Harper kicked you out of cabinet for showing up to your obedience training sessions totally wasted and high, and he really had no choice. So get over it, let’s move on and make money, dude!

Have a spiffy, spliffy 420 everybody :) :) :)

If you really want to get in on the action, you can always partner up in a startup if you have the money to, ahem, burn.

#131 Junior on 04.20.16 at 9:49 am

Garth I am very interested to know your though about bitgold its apparently a game changer.

http://betakit.com/less-than-a-year-after-launch-goldmoney-gets-listed-on-the-toronto-stock-exchange/

If this is true this has huge implications right around the world.

#132 fancy_pants on 04.20.16 at 9:50 am

If the general store doesn’t work out, you could start a munitions and squirrel soup recipes e-store. Just a link off this blog should suffice.

#133 Tony on 04.20.16 at 9:56 am

#112 Smoking Man on 04.20.16 at 2:29 am

Amazing, alcohol withdrawal, my hands shaking like I’m having an epileptic eposode in the poker room. Totally mind fkd my opponents. Walked away with 4.7g
They helped me stack my chips with every win. Felt sorry for me. My dealer so worried got security to come with a blood presure machine. All was good.
I forced down two beers which stopped the shaking.
Had two cigarettes , big mistake, my fever slayed that bastard addiction. Guess you just can’t change your programming that easily. Going to work on it.
Vegas tomorrow. Area 51 on Friday. I’m crossing the line by two feet. See if I get that 600 dollar fine from the camo dudes.
Life is short. Enjoy and push every moment.
___________________________________________

We were all waiting for the real Smoking Man to reappear. Ha that didn’t take as long as we all thought. Cigarettes first then a couple of beers. Shouldn’t take long for you to be back at the JD.
Have the video of you and your family at area 51.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knjkewz0DyQ

#134 robot powered economy on 04.20.16 at 10:10 am

#126 NoName on 04.20.16 at 9:03 am
#114 robot powered economy

====

It is a matter of making a decision to chart the road ahead, like the US government did with the moon landing.

Or as Elon Musk did on an individual entrepreneur level with Tesla and SpaceX.

Canada could take this opportunity of dire straight to step back, think about the future.

It is also possible to start to spend on “stimulation”, but money would be much better spent on “transformation”.

Difficulty give us chance to learn and look for clarity, new, possibly different path for the future.

The history of automation leaves no doubt where that path leads, we should accelerate transformation with all the resources we have, instead of dragging our feet and try to “stimulate” and waste the money, energy, opportunity, what accounts to trying to piss against the wind. That will always get messy.

We can create a new golden age with robot powered economy.

It is hard to know how long that can last… that will depend if the machines can ever gain self awareness.

If/when this happens, that’s when we will be really screwed, there is no way that intelligent machines would ever accept and want to exist to be our slaves.

But that’s something for an other time.

Right now, the next step is to make room for the robots to gradually take over all the chores they can do.

We should embrace and support this transformation, becoming free from economically forced labor is the beginning of doing things not only fundamentally differently but possibly better.

#135 Hot Albertan Money on 04.20.16 at 10:14 am

but it’s time to load up on the SPF 30

Is that a new ETF?

#136 Noel on 04.20.16 at 10:15 am

That chart is good, shows a very balanced economy. It also kills the myth of the government dominating hiring – looks to be about 6% of output (as of March public admin made up 5% of the workforce, so they’re outperforming).

#137 robot powered economy on 04.20.16 at 10:18 am

#128 Shawn on 04.20.16 at 9:27 am

Robot Economy? Good or Bad

Robot economy at 114 sees the good in this.

Noname at 126 fears it.

*****************************

I have pointed out before, the obvious response to the jobless robot economy is to position yourself and your family as owners of the robots. (Meant here as a broad term covering all automated production and software that produces things and services with little to no labour).

The investor class will be the winners. Save and invest in equities now or end up on the wrong side of the future class divide.

Be a winner or a whiner, it’s your choice.

====

That’s the transition period.

Eventually everybody will win, the full-blown robot powered economy will transform the entire society as we know it now, in ways we don’t even imagine and anticipate now.

#138 Bram on 04.20.16 at 10:30 am

I now, Vancouver is obsessed, blah blah blah.

And yet….
Hmmm.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1937267/stampede-inside-story-vancouvers-wildest-property-deal-gone-7200

Bram

#139 Shawn on 04.20.16 at 10:45 am

How Corporate Directors Defer Income Tax

I was just noticing that one large Canadian company is paying its directors about $200k per year entirely in stocks or Deferred Stock Units (DSUs) and the directors can choose which of the two they want.

With the DSUs the directors pay no tax on the this compensation income each year and defer all the tax until they retire from the Board.

The middle class think that the investor and corporate class are favored by the tax system. If only they knew ALL the ways that is happening.

I question the ethics of any company that facilitates its directors getting paid say $200k worth of deferred stock units per year (for a part-time job) thereby allowing the directors to defer all personal income taxes on this compensation for years.

Such directors receive no income and no compensation and therefore pay no tax. When they receive the assets, they are taxed upon possession of them. They are taxed further upon sale of the stocks. That is unfair, how? — Garth

#140 IHCTD9 on 04.20.16 at 11:06 am

#5 Love my Kia on 04.19.16 at 5:58 pm
You are forgetting about the massive Ring of Fire development in northern Ontario that contains everything from rare minerals to gold to iron in its reserves. Just no oil which is fine.

There still isn’t a land route to it yet, but they’re working on it.

Make things as efficient as you want, there will always be a demand for ‘things’.

____________________________________________

Ring of Fire is going nowhere.

60 Billion in minerals, nickel, which has struggled to stay over 4.00/lb on the LME the last few years (It was at 3.00 in 1999, and 28.00 in 2008 IIRC), Chromium is in the toilet as well.

Year after year of our boneheaded Ontario Liberal government going back and forth with like 9 different first nations leaders and making no progress whatsoever has Noront and Resource Capital threatening to pull out as of late last year.

Expect Wynne and Co. to continue getting nothing done this year, along with Capital drying up as investor frustration increases, and interest by new sources of Capital wanes.

At this point, and all things considered; expect Noront to join Cliffs Natural Resources and just give up waiting for the Libs and the FN’s. They are likely heading into to lay offs; and subsequent mothballing of the ROF project.

#141 directors of a board on 04.20.16 at 11:30 am

#139 Shawn on 04.20.16 at 10:45 am

How Corporate Directors Defer Income Tax

I was just noticing that one large Canadian company is paying its directors about $200k per year entirely in stocks or Deferred Stock Units (DSUs) and the directors can choose which of the two they want.

With the DSUs the directors pay no tax on the this compensation income each year and defer all the tax until they retire from the Board.

The middle class think that the investor and corporate class are favored by the tax system. If only they knew ALL the ways that is happening.

I question the ethics of any company that facilitates its directors getting paid say $200k worth of deferred stock units per year (for a part-time job) thereby allowing the directors to defer all personal income taxes on this compensation for years.

Such directors receive no income and no compensation and therefore pay no tax. When they receive the assets, they are taxed upon possession of them. They are taxed further upon sale of the stocks. That is unfair, how? — Garth

===

They actually receive the compensation, but the type of compensation they receive have the attribute to become taxable at the time of their choice.

In a sense, to some extent it works somewhat as if it was an asset in RRSP , where the owners of the accounts have certain control when and how much taxable income they want to trigger.

It is also not taxed as a T4 income, board members are effectively a “special class of employees”.

Is this status fair or not is a matter of opinion.

#142 onpar on 04.20.16 at 11:32 am

I live in downtown Toronto. One of greatest joys is flying past people sitting in their cars in traffic, as I make way for our amazing trails. Garth, get a bike dude! I’m sure I’ve passed by you in traffic a few times as you’ve browsed this comment section on your iPad :)

#143 Vamanos Pest on 04.20.16 at 12:12 pm

#96 Apocalypse 2016

BEST COMMENT EVER!!!

right from the “GLOBAL HEALTH ALERT” headline to the bold prediction that “microcephaly” won’t get talked about much in the comment section…of a financial/RE blog.

Awesome.

Hilarious.

#144 IHCTD9 on 04.20.16 at 12:19 pm

#34 Mark on 04.19.16 at 7:18 pm

Indeed. From Syria, and assuming that the plane dead-headed empty one way, that’s almost beneath the average seat mile cost of most airlines.
__________________________________________

What a deal for the Canadian taxpayers.

I am glad to have T2 in power providing excellent stewardship over our public funds.

I look forward to great prosperity guided by his steady hand.

I am buying a set of premium 10,000X binoculars for this task.

#145 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 04.20.16 at 12:26 pm

LOTS OF OIL AND LOTS OF USES FOR IT: AN OILY FUTURE INDEED

In response to St. Garth of Hydrocarbon-Free-Lives-to- Come, you wrote in part: “…So even if oil recovers to double today’s price, it would make a lot of Canada’s pricy oilsands bitumen barely worth digging up and cooking. In short, one of our major industries may end up gutted. Bummer…”

I heartily disagree.

There will be lots of demand for our “cooked” oil sands products, nevermind even our more precious and prolific natural gas and its various by-products that include “carbon black” used in making tires of all types (and whose largest Canadian plant-of-its-type is situated in Medicine Hat AB).

However, the day environmental whiners, including Al Gore and David Suzuki, stop using fuel-thirsty aircraft to proselytize their unchallengeable edicts, then you’ll FINALLY be on the leading-edge of being right about the sunset of this most valuable resource.

As for the future of oil prices? It’s all UP from here, regardless of the number of warm months of March. See this from Saudi Arabia:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/19/saudi-arabia-takes-out-10bn-in-bank-loans.html

Last weekend’s silly waste of time in Doha was nothing but posturing by a declining OPEC and some of the new energy producer boys on the block, Russia specifically.

It was a powerplay of sorts whose aim was to warn cash-starved OPEC-producers that they must start toeing the production-cut line now or else things will get even hungrier.

Back in Canada, bank stocks are up, including CIBC which broke through $100 a share (is a stock-split in the wind?)
and oil is heading toward $20 US a barrel. Investors seem happy.

That can all change in a heart-beat of course, but the fix, as I say, is in. Oil prices are heading up and people are willing to pay because they won’t stop flying and driving.
Will they?

#146 Shawn on 04.20.16 at 12:28 pm

Unfair Tax Deferral for Directors

Garth responded to me at 139:

Such directors receive no income and no compensation and therefore pay no tax. When they receive the assets, they are taxed upon possession of them. They are taxed further upon sale of the stocks. That is unfair, how? — Garth

***********************************

True, they receive no cash compensation. But as responder 141 stated, it is (clearly) compensation. It would show up in a net worth statement surely.

The alternative is they get paid in stocks and pay tax on that value. They then defer taxes on the gain in the stocks until they sell, just like we all can.

Deferred Share units are unfair because it allows a tax deferral not available to anyone except directors and executives.

If their tax is deferred then the government must tax someone else extra or borrow money to make up for the lost current year tax receipts. No?

It’s even more unfair that some companies are now paying directors ENTIRELY in such deferred stock units so they pay no current income taxes.

I suppose this is nothing new given that stock options have value when issued (no intrinsic value, but clearly value nonetheless) but are also not taxed upon receipt.

The general public tends to believe that the investor class is taxed more favorably. They are right. In this case the corporate director class gets an additional benefit.

I view this as unfair. I also view it as mildly unethical that companies facilitate it.

I also note with dismay that when I read about this in two corporate proxy circulars, there was ZERO mention that the practice allowed the benefit of tax deferral. Is the not disingenuous at best.

In summary, directors get to defer taxes and companies do not even clearly disclose this to their owners let alone to the general public. Someone else gets to have increased taxes now to make up for the deferral. Nice.

Not exactly. RSUs are common compensation for all kinds of people far below the board room. — Garth

#147 Bottoms_Up on 04.20.16 at 12:45 pm

#123 Andrewt on 04.20.16 at 8:35 am
————————–
It is clear the deniers are either too lazy to consider the truth, or choose to ignore it, or perhaps are still being funded by the Koch brothers to maintain an air of skepticism.

Steven Harper in 2006 said in an interview with Peter Mansbridge that global warming was the greatest threat to society. A year later he switched to ‘terrorism’ and rarely spoke about global warming after that.

True leadership would have been to recognize the problem, be at the table with other leaders and start to do something about it. Be accountable. He wasn’t. Harper, you let Canadians (and our fellow global citizens down) for how YOU chose to handle the global warming file 2006-2015.

#148 salonist on 04.20.16 at 12:49 pm

negative mortgage rate

mortgage rates that are below zero?
story
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/18/negative-mortgage-rates_n_9722138.html

Never happen here. Besides, it is a trumped-up of no consequence, even in Europe. — Garth

#149 Bottoms_Up on 04.20.16 at 12:52 pm

#115 Bloke in England on 04.20.16 at 3:03 am
————————
An equivalent argument to yours is “people have always gotten sick; so their is no need to fund research into HIV and AIDS”.

It’s an illogical fallacy to link human contribution to global warming as being unimportant because of historical records of natural change occurring over millenia. The problem with human-induced global warming is that temperatures are changing on a time scale of decade to decade rather than millenia to millenia.

#150 davikk on 04.20.16 at 1:04 pm

Canada’s Financial Sector just Crapped on its Bondholders, Hoping They Don’t Care

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canadas-financial-sector-just-crapped-on-its-bondholders-hoping-they-dont-care/

#151 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.20.16 at 1:13 pm

I called the top of the Canadian RE market 3 years ago…

thanks for confirming my comment that your RE knowledge is poor and your predictions are worse

Enough. — Garth

#152 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.20.16 at 1:19 pm

I pushed the deflationary thesis…

thanks for confirming this wrong call as well

pls stop trying to convince ppl that u make sensible predictions. that ship has sailed. this blog is focused on intelligent investing.

#153 family beagle on 04.20.16 at 1:59 pm

#138 Bram on 04.20.16 at 10:30 am
I now, Vancouver is obsessed, blah blah blah.
And yet….
Hmmm.
http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1937267/stampede-inside-story-vancouvers-wildest-property-deal-gone-7200
Bram

—–

In light of this new pricing model, called the 1065 Nelson Perfect Return, I’ve had to revise my own:
– a pint of my blood is now $750k
– my vote is now $4 million
– my spare kidney is $71 million
– smiles are still a bargain at $135k

#154 family beagle on 04.20.16 at 2:04 pm

Cyclists: if you ride on roadways you should be registered and insured.

There I said it. Expect a bill soon.

#155 RayofLight on 04.20.16 at 2:05 pm

#137 robot powered economy on 04.20.16 at 10:18 am
#128 Shawn on 04.20.16 at 9:27 am
Robot Economy? Good or Bad
Robot economy at 114 sees the good in this.
Noname at 126 fears it.
*****************************
I have pointed out before, the obvious response to the jobless robot economy is to position yourself and your family as owners of the robots. (Meant here as a broad term covering all automated production and software that produces things and services with little to no labour).
The investor class will be the winners. Save and invest in equities now or end up on the wrong side of the future class divide.
Be a winner or a whiner, it’s your choice.
====
That’s the transition period.
Eventually everybody will win, the full-blown robot powered economy will transform the entire society as we know it now, in ways we don’t even imagine and anticipate now.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
When “Robots” become smarter with better computers and AI Programming, what happens if the robots decide that the humans are a liability to the mission? Do we have our “HAL 9000” moment?

#156 waiting on the westcoast on 04.20.16 at 2:10 pm

The last couple of months have produced list quality jobs but the overall trend is good in the US!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-still-creating-plenty-of-good-paying-jobs-2016-04-20

#157 NoName on 04.20.16 at 2:10 pm

#137 robot powered economy

Dude I fix robots for living,when i take a pendant in my handspeople think that I know what I am doing, I immediately start talking primitive data: bits, boolean, short, double, integers, floating points, strings, chars…

I don’t fear them but, you should.

#158 Martin on 04.20.16 at 2:19 pm

Shawn on 04.19.16 at 7:46 pm

GDP and Wealth creation

Others think that exports are crucial to produce wealth. That can be easily proved false by simply observing that the earth is wealthy but exports absolutely nothing.
————————
The earth exports nothing but it does receive 365 days worth of sunlight every year, for free. If it was not for that gift, we would be creating no ‘wealth’ at all.
As a matter of fact, once we discovered that there is a store of millions of years of accumulated sunlight in the form of fossil fuels, we magically became able to create this ‘wealth’ for ourselves at a much faster pace. Is it a coincidence that our wealth creation was at a glacial pace when all we had the benefit of was the sunlight that was hitting the earth a day at a time? Helping us produce meager agricultural products and supporting a meager services industry before the discovery of ‘stored sunlight’ accelerated our ‘wealth creation’?
I have been lurking on this blog for a few years and I very much enjoy your comments Shawn.

#159 Nemesis on 04.20.16 at 2:41 pm

#WhenADeal’sNotADeal,Or… #WakeUpCall…

[WaPo] – One of the nation’s largest pension funds could soon cut benefits for retirees

…“This is going to be a national crisis for hundreds of thousands, and eventually millions, of retirees and their families,” said Karen Friedman, executive vice president of the Pension Rights Center…

http://tinyurl.com/hj76okx

#160 waiting on the westcoast on 04.20.16 at 2:44 pm

Meant low not list quality…

#161 conan on 04.20.16 at 3:18 pm

RE : #159 Nemesis on 04.20.16 at 2:41 pm

It is one thing to lose some money in the stock market but it is a whole new level of pain when pension funds can not eek out a decent return on their mandated bond holdings.

Payout mode on savings is a different kettle of fish then accumulation. A 20 % reduction in principle due to a market correction is catastrophic. That is why pension funds have mandated bond level holdings. Now that bonds pay peanuts, the actuarial assumptions are broken.

This is the next financial crisis, much bigger then ISIS.

#162 jess on 04.20.16 at 3:19 pm

…reach out to the Donors Trust?

…”a non profit group FACT calls for transparency when in fact it is not transparent itself (dark money)

..”Many of the groups list the same Georgetown address as their office, with different suite numbers. In reality, the address is that of a UPS store, and the suite numbers are post boxes. FACT’s listed address, in downtown Washington, D.C., has no markings; it appears to be an address that is cited by more than one organization without actually being physically used by any of them, with a receptionist who answers the phone with the names of various groups depending on which line is called.
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2016/04/new-nonprofit-tied-to-stealthy-circle-of-dark-money-groups/

#163 Walmark of Sadkatoon on 04.20.16 at 3:30 pm

the climate is fine in Canada

I’m lovin it here

#164 Walmark of Sadkatoon on 04.20.16 at 3:31 pm

if climate change involves more teslas on the road then i supposed I can live w that

#165 Renter's Revenge! on 04.20.16 at 3:34 pm

#154 family beagle on 04.20.16 at 2:04 pm
“Cyclists: if you ride on roadways you should be registered and insured.

There I said it. Expect a bill soon.”

And here I thought that the point of registration and insurance was the potential for damage that you can cause with your car, not the other way around.

#166 bdy sktrn on 04.20.16 at 4:03 pm

not really a fan of our shiny pony airhead PM but i’ve got to give him credit for making the announcement on tabling mj legislation on today’s date. cheeky bastard!

WA state system working wonderfully. Reefer madness has yet to destroy the state.

Van will still be the most desired city in canada for the next 50 years.

#167 Shawn on 04.20.16 at 4:08 pm

Tax Deferral for the Corporate Class

I had said at 146:

In summary, directors get to defer taxes and companies do not even clearly disclose this to their owners let alone to the general public. Someone else gets to have increased taxes now to make up for the deferral. Nice.

And Garth responded:

Not exactly. RSUs are common compensation for all kinds of people far below the board room. — Garth

****************************************
Fair enough its executives, Board members and sometimes lower employees who get Restricted Stock Units or Deferred Stock Units as compensation and can thereby defer personal tax.

I don’t think any lower level employee gets 100% of their compensation deferred that way as some directors do.

To the extent more people get this then the problem is even bigger but I suspect the dollars involved for regular employees is tiny. It’s the big shots that really get he big tax deferrals.

I simply think it’s worth at least shining a light on this. I am not sure how many directors would be comfortable to defend this practice in front of a crowd. As I stated the tax deferral aspect was not disclosed in the proxy statements I read. That silence speaks volumes.

Legal tax avoidance and deferral is all fun and games until it hits the front pages. Then people start to squirm.

Is this just jealousy on my part? Maybe. But the idea of directors getting $200k from each of several Board seats and deferring all income taxes on that for several years offends my particular sense of fairness.

As an investor I feel I enjoy far more tax breaks than I should. (RRSP, RESP, TFSA, low tax on dividends, half tax on capital gains, low taxes on income I retain in my small business). Being a significant beneficiary of this largesse does not change my view that it is unfair to the non-investor taxpayers.

The idea that the corporate director class should get this additional huge deferral offends me. I want to shed some light on it. Thank you for providing this forum to do so today. I respect that you and others see no problem with it.

#168 Bottoms_Up on 04.20.16 at 4:26 pm

Traditionally newcomers have paid for their passage, or repaid it over time, as they become established and are able. — Garth
————————–
Traditionally newcomers aren’t leaving war ravaged territories with 100s of thousands dead and millions wounded and displaced, living in refugee camps for years and living on scraps, while those less fortunate are dying from drowning while trying to reach land to be free. Canadians spend less than $1 each to bring 25,000 of these people here and you are trying to make this an issue? Also, 25,000 people will “payback” their $30 million bill after each contributes a little over $1000 in taxes. In Canada, that doesn’t take long.

#169 M on 04.20.16 at 4:39 pm

Do NOT listen to climatologists. They are worse than the economists and much much worse than meteorologists.

Nothing wrong with the planet

#170 Bram on 04.20.16 at 5:09 pm

#158 Martin on 04.20.16 at 2:19 pm
The earth exports nothing but it does receive 365 days worth of sunlight every year, for free. If it was not for that gift, we would be creating no ‘wealth’ at all.
As a matter of fact, once we discovered that there is a store of millions of years of accumulated sunlight in the form of fossil fuels, we magically became able to create this ‘wealth’ for ourselves at a much faster pace. Is it a coincidence that our wealth creation was at a glacial pace when all we had the benefit of was the sunlight that was hitting the earth a day at a time? Helping us produce meager agricultural products and supporting a meager services industry before the discovery of ‘stored sunlight’ accelerated our ‘wealth creation’?

Man, this is straight up poetry!
Some nice deep thoughts there! (not being sarcastic.)
Did you come up with this yourself, or did you read it somewhere else? (just curious.)

Bram

#171 bill on 04.20.16 at 5:18 pm

#169 M on 04.20.16 at 4:39 pm
I agree and this is for you….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB0aFPXr4n4

#172 family beagle on 04.20.16 at 5:20 pm

#165 Renter’s Revenge! on 04.20.16 at 3:34 pm
#154 family beagle on 04.20.16 at 2:04 pm
“Cyclists: if you ride on roadways you should be registered and insured.

There I said it. Expect a bill soon.”

And here I thought that the point of registration and insurance was the potential for damage that you can cause with your car, not the other way around.

…..

“Cyclists didn’t build that.”
They should be tagged and taxed if their rubber touches asphalt. They are purposefully vulnerable. We also need a way to fink on them for traffic violations. Chasing them down the street is a hassle. If they want to be rebels, go off road. Next, skateboarders.

#173 45north on 04.20.16 at 10:04 pm

Meanwhile the World Economic Forum says oil demand will fall steadily over the next few decades as countries tax carbon and shift to green tech.

peak oil is real. Oil is going to be more expensive.

So we’re busy building a condo economy where a big share of GDP comes from all of us borrowing a boatload of money so we can buy inflated properties from each other.

to sum up:

oil may or may not become more expensive but it is coming under political attack

the economy is increasingly based on debt

immigration is receiving increased political attention

which makes the 1950’s seem like a nice place but it’s not coming back.

#174 SK on 04.21.16 at 10:33 pm

>This week I finally hit $1m usd in my stock portfolio. With >time (a decade of further investment and returns) it may >even exceed my C01 and C02 house portfolio.

>congrats! nice job

Note: if it’s held in RRSP then – with 300K income – you really have only half of $1m, another half to be returned to gvmt…