Agony & ecstasy

MISSING modified

Ever wonder what other readers of this pathetic blog agonize over? Here are a few notes received this week that don’t involve telling me what I should do with my personal orifices..

“I’m an early 40’s married professional with 1 young child and a large dog, 2 incomes ($280k – $300k) and a small amount of debt,” says Norm. “We have been living in our first house (a 1940’s Etobicoke bungalow) for 13 years and paid it off around 4 years ago. We used the time without a mortgage to bulk up on investments and got a great deal on a cottage we purchased 3 years. The cottage mortgage is relatively small, around $270k. We have basically no debt other than the cottage mortgage, but feel stuck…..and feel poor…..

“We would love to move to a slightly larger home in a slightly better ‘hood (we have a small two bedroom bungalow with small kitchen and bathroom in the “up and coming” Long Branch neighbourhood of Etobicoke). We are not confined to moving within Toronto proper, homes in Oakville and Georgetown have come up that we really like but either sell in multiple offers at huge over asking prices within days, if we do have the chance to put in an offer we get blown away by ‘The Greater Fool’….. PLEASE HELP!

*     Our first option is to blow off the top of our bungalow and make it a two story, but construction prices are huge and a $400-$600k addition to our house (along with moving out for a year), doesn’t seem to make a lot of financial sense.

*         The second option is to sell and move. But I get a stomach ache when I think of adding a $500k-$600k mortgage (not including the cottage mortgage) to our debt free life at this point.

*         The third option is to shut up and live in our existing house and make some cosmetic changes to make the house a little more comfortable and get back to bulking up on RSP, TFSA and RESP contributions.

*         The final option is to sell and rent. Take the cash remaining after commissions, etc put that into a term deposit and use the income from that to subsidize the rent….Realtors and our own market overview makes us believe our house would sell for $700k-$800k….not sure how much monthly income we could get from that without touching the principal, but would love to get your thoughts….

“Of course the big hurtle with my final option is my lovely and talented wife….she thinks by renting we would be taking a step back and never be able to “get back into the housing market”….I blew my top at that comment given that with existing investments, little debt, and the proceeds from our house sale we would have a net worth in excess of $1.2 million….’how is renting going backwards when selling our Etobicoke pile makes us f&cking rich?!”

Piteous Norm, making $300,000 a year with over a million in net worth, house and cottage, and feeling poor. First World problems. But he sure isn’t alone in a place where real estate is sucking the wealth, and common sense, out of an entire population.

Options? Don’t build up. Turning an $800,000 bung into a $1.4 million two-storey on a street full of other bungs in a second-class hood is just dumb. You may never get it back. Selling and renting makes the most financial sense, since you’ll capture tax-free capital gains, stand aside when the market corrects and have serious liquidity and flexibility. But you certainly want nothing to do with a term deposit, which pays nothing (as opposed to a balanced portfolio), plus you need to solve The Wife Issue. Staying put sounds like a big compromise. And selling to move with a fat new mortgage means no more investing for a while. If that’s the only marital choice, then dump the cottage in the spring market and use the equity to invest in a 905 house.

But what does the dog want?

On the issue of Toronto prices, Jane asks: “Any idea when we can expect to see the inevitable decline in housing prices in the GTA?”

“Husband and I have been very lucky (sheer, dumb luck here!) and have a house that’s worth about $850k on paper.  We have a little over $275k left on our mortgage. No other debt and decent paying jobs. Like a lot of people, we have some liquid investments (about 100k in RRSPs, TFSAs and an RESP for the kid) but not enough.  We’re in our mid 30’s. We’re planning to cash in and move a little farther west….maybe pick up a house in the $650k range.  Goal is to try to wipe out as much of the mortgage as we can and plump up the investment accounts. Do you think the tipping point is this year, or will this be a gradual slide over the next few years?”

Of your $700,000 or so in net worth, 85% is in one asset. Not smart. Too much risk. A goal for you should be to try and diversify over the next few years, and (like Norm) harvesting that taxless real estate gain is a big step in leaping ahead financially. So I concur with the plan to bail and then buy further out where men are still men and don’t ride Vespas.

Your question then, is when? Once a correction start,s listings will quickly multiple and buyers begin pushing prices down – the opposite of current conditions. Seems 2016 is fairly safe in the GTA, given the paucity of supply and the paunch of demand and the fact rates will hold until the end of the year. But then, why wait? You may not see a seller’s market this hormonal again in your lifetime. Milk ‘em.

Now, Norm and Jane, meet Rob. He lives in the Fraser Valley, where Vancoueritis has recently infected the locals, and his is an example of rational, contrarian thinking.

“I have been waiting a long time to write you this letter. You advice and this crazy market got me thinking, and after discussing it, my wife and I agreed it was time. We put the house on the market Thursday (we paid $500K for it), open houses on the weekend and accepted offers Monday evening. We accepted an offer of just under 1 million dollars (almost 100k over list!!). It was an unconditional offer accepting all our terms. The most important being we will rent back 1/2 of the house for $1,500 per month for a couple of years!

“I am 55 and now I know what that slogan is all about…..I feel free!!!

“But here’s the kicker that makes me think I sold just in time. We had about 10-12 groups ready to write offers, when all but 3 pulled out at the last minute. “Not going to get into a bidding war” “The prices have just gone too high” ect was the reasons given among other similar ones. You wrote about buyer disgust? It is there now! By the way, the family that bought the house was a nice Canadian family of four. Not sure that matters. Doesn’t to me….”

There isn’t much doubt who we’ll all envy a few years from now.

Oh, I forgot? Like in Edmonton and need a new Porsche? Lucky day, dudes.

PORSCHE

140 comments ↓

#1 bdy sktrn on 04.15.16 at 6:18 pm

First lot to ever list over 2m in this hood. 2.15 for a 49footer in decidedly downscale east van. 2.45 by the time you clear the land.

these were going for 1.2 to 1.4 a couple years ago.

2140 GRANT STREET, Vancouver, British Columbia V5L2Z4

$2,149,000
Listing ID: R2055447
Bathrooms 1Bedrooms 2

——–
i toad a so but you julians wouldn’t listen.

#2 bdy sktrn on 04.15.16 at 6:18 pm

second.

#3 @crazyfasteddy on 04.15.16 at 6:19 pm

What?? No comment about the AB budget??

#4 A Canadian Abroad on 04.15.16 at 6:19 pm

The day Alberta died. As an Albertan and a large Canadian investor, I’ll be looking at investing outside of Canada more now. Canada doesn’t want investment or jobs.

“Alberta carbon tax will scare off business and investment” – CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-carbon-tax-will-scare-off-business-and-investment-warns-opposition-1.3536458

#5 jimmy on 04.15.16 at 6:20 pm

Phurscht!

#6 earthboundmisfit on 04.15.16 at 6:23 pm

I’m agonizing more over the economic bullshittery that came out of the OEB today. Preached at to conserve, conserve, conserve and so we do. And because we do, our rates are going up.

#7 saint john on 04.15.16 at 6:27 pm

I wonder how this awesome blog post will affect Victoria; where is my daily regurgitated update with no real new content?

*wink*

#8 God Emperor Trump on 04.15.16 at 6:27 pm

Prediction for the Tuesday GOP NY State primary and forward:

April 2016: Nomination secured.

November 2016: Donald Trump elected 45th president of the United States

April 2017: Hillary Clinton sentenced to 7 life sentences for high treason. Bush family forced into hiding.

September 2018: Great wall of America completed “Under budget, ahead of schedule”

October 2019: the great northern wall erected. “When Canada sends their people they send Beibers, they send Krogers, they send Cruzs, some I assume are good people but they elected Tradeau so we can’t take a chance”

June 2020: Ellis island reopened as german refugees pour in. “They can come here, but they have to do so legally.”

November 2020: Trump wins re-election carrying 50 out of 50 states plus Washington

June 2021: Boots on the ground in Eurabia “We will liberate them and make Europe great again”

Jan 2022: “We got her” Merkel captured in a spider hole outside Dusseldorf. To stand trial for crimes against German people.

August 2022: US forces reach the Aegean sea. Europe annexed into greater American empire

October 2022: seige of Istanbul is successful. Constantinople reclaimed

June 2023: Communist forces of the Democratic peoples republic of Canada launch sneak attack across lake Michigan. Chicago burns

July 2024: Toronto falls. Canada annexed. Quebecois forced to learn English

August 2024: 22nd amendment repealed

November 2024: Trump wins third term

Jan 2025: attempted coup by Sandernista revolutionaries leads to emergency powers granted to Emperor trump.

July 2030: Total victory against Islam reached “No longer do you have to worry about women being killed for not being covered, gays being thrown from rooftops, people being stoned. sharia law will not rule. I told you I’d do something about it and I did”

July 2035: United American Empire lands on Mars.

2037: Greater American empire split into Trumpium and the Trumpantine empire for administrative purposes, Barron Trump promoted to co-emperor

2038: Earths greatest scientists perfect immortality for emperor Trump

2040: The sino-Russian empire falls. Trumpian forces quickly establish order

2041: All resistance wiped out Earth is united under one banner. Except mexico. #### mexico.

2060: Terra colonists arrive at Alpha Centauri

2066: The Immortal Donald achieves the title God Emperor of Mankind

3000: Humans expand to 30 star systems. Population 700 trillion “I told you we would be great again.

40,000 AD: Human empire stretches across thousands of systems with Holy Terra and the immortal God emperor trump at its center. Imperium of Man shall rule

#9 Lets Get House Horny on 04.15.16 at 6:33 pm

“By the way, the family that bought the house was a nice Canadian family of four. Not sure that matters. Doesn’t to me….”

Sold to greater fools ?

Greed and avarice makes for such nice people – yes ?

#10 Star Stuff on 04.15.16 at 6:35 pm

#8 God Emperor Trump on 04.15.16 at 6:27 pm

The agony and the ecstasy.

#11 steerage steward on 04.15.16 at 6:37 pm

Every one of the nine points in the Wikipedia list of identifying asset bubbles applies to the Canadian housing market. Nice to have a simple URL to send people when they ask if there really is a bubble. Millennials always believe what they read on wikipedia after all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble#Identifying_asset_bubbles

#12 james on 04.15.16 at 6:43 pm

Sheesh, 1.2 million net worth and agonizing over a dump in Etobicoke.

Norm, here is what I would do. Start shoveling the money in offshore bank accounts. Send the wife on vacation, sell the house behind her back and vamoose to Colombia or Peru. Find a more sensible wife half your age, send pictures to your kid every year. Keep the dog.

As for the lady with 85% of her wealth in the house and a mere 100k spread between RRSPs, RESPs, etc. This is the perfect time to rebalance. Sell while the masses are lining up to buy.

I give thanks each day for being blessed with an intelligent, accomplished sensible woman who doesn’t devote all of her neuronal activity to ogling larger houses. Instead she thinks about such pedestrian things as personal development, career aspirations, hobbies, education, family, starting businesses, volunteering, etc. You know, that antiquated stuff that Canadians don’t bother to think about anymore.

#13 Star Stuff on 04.15.16 at 6:43 pm

This RE stuff is boooooooring..

More importantly, are you still on track with the free ice cream for all the dogs of the loyal blog doggers in two weeks?

#14 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.15.16 at 6:45 pm

“Any idea when we can expect to see the inevitable decline in housing prices in the GTA?”

no one knows. prices in YYZ will keep going up until it doesn’t. just don’t be near this freight train when it hits the wall

#15 Vancouveritis on 04.15.16 at 6:46 pm

Vancouver city council Affordable Home Ownership program. Helps residents that cannot afford to buy, get in the market?

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2016/04/affordable-home-ownership-program-vancouver/

Talk about the government pouring fuel on the fire.
yeeeeesh..
I give up!

#16 Ronaldo on 04.15.16 at 6:52 pm

”By the way, the family that bought the house was a nice Canadian family of four. Not sure that matters. Doesn’t to me….”

They will be sorry when they realize what they did and it will certainly matter to them.

#17 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.15.16 at 6:53 pm

OAK BAY’S RECENT PRICE PLUNGE

. . . . . . . Single Family Home Prices. . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . .Oak Bay. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . (Percent Below 2010 Peak). . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0%. . . * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-6%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-7%. . . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11%. . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . .* . . . . . . . .
-12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-13%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-14%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-15%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . .
————————————————————————
. . . . .March. . Dec. . .Dec. . .Dec. . .Dec. . .
. . . . . 2010. . .10. . . .11. . . .12. . . .13. . .

(source: Victoria’s RE board)

From March 2010 to December 2013, single family home prices in Oak Bay fell 15.2%.

I’ve used a 3-month median to put this chart together.

Median price data is considered by many to be more useful, accurate and reliable than the average price and is widely used in the US. It is also less affected by changes in the sales mix (skewing) than the average price.

The very useful 3-month median is easily found by averaging the medians of 3 consecutive months. Using 3 months of price data increases accuracy. This requires no magic and no tricks.

HOUSE PRICES FALL AS RATES RISE

As Garth has talked about many times, the correlation between house prices and interest rates is irrefutable. House prices fall as rates rise. This has been known to be true for decades in all housing markets.

Don’t let someone who sells houses for a living convince you otherwise.

FALLING 5-YEAR MORTGAGE RATES SINCE 2010 LIMITED OAK BAY’S PRICE DECLINE

Imagine how far house prices in Oak Bay would have fallen (-30%?) (-40%?) if rates hadn’t been on a downward path since 2010, stimulating the housing market in the process.

Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates:
4.29% in May 2010
2.64% in April 2013
2.34% in February 2016

Click on the link and look at the second chart. Rates will be 5% or higher within 2 to 3 years.

Imagine how strong of a downward force on house prices that will be.

“BUBBLES DON”T LAND SOFTLY. THEY IMPLODE.”

We must also to take into account that house prices in Victoria are extremely overvalued compared to incomes and rents.

By 2008 Victoria’s housing bubble was massive. Emergency level interest rates have maintained the bubble for the past 8 years and, unfortunately, this has made things even worse.
As Wolfe Richter (Wall Street) wrote:

“Bubbles don’t land softly. They implode. It’s a brutal process. The longer bubbles are maintained, the more brutal their implosion (think Victoria since 2008).”

A HOUSING BUBBLE WITH RISING RATES

It’s a brutal combination. Those who have recently taken on mortgages at near-peak prices in Victoria will face years of financial difficulties as a result. They will learn the hard way that taking on a mortgage when prices are extremely overvalued and interest rates are at emergency levels is always a bad idea.

A NOTE ABOUT MY HATERS

Several commenters have been trying to distract those who may be following my comments by intentionally writing things that I haven’t said or trying to twist my words.

When asked where they got the information, they’re always unable to produce the exact quote. It’s a game to create distraction.

Immature/trolling comments, nutbar claims and outright lies often come from the following commenters:
Okanagan Man, Move on VREU, understood by few, Bottoms_Up, prairie person, Frank, bdy sktrn,etc.

You can expect trolling comments from this group on an ongoing basis. You’ll probably learn to see it as a form of entertainment. I recommend that you ignore them.

Sometimes you may see me send them comments such as: “Proof?”, “Your comment contains lies/false information.” or “Quote?”.

Cheers

#18 Smoking Man on 04.15.16 at 6:55 pm

Garth, my 60 loyal fans.

Something is not right with me. Ever since the fever and the few days in Hospital my mind won’t get out of first gear. Firing IQ at 20 % . My body wount alow nicotine or alcohol.

I walk around in a dazed state. I have so much to say but can’t put the words together. I’m hoping the desert tomorrow will help. Not counting on it.

The fever blew up my mind. I have huge black bruses that goes around my waist.

Any MDS out there for a explanation. My hospital doc said I have had a pnomonia. Total bull shit. No congestion, clear breathing. No mucus. It’s a lie.

Till I recover don’t expect much in contributions. Too weak..

#19 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.15.16 at 6:55 pm

MORE FALSE CLAIMS

You’ve probably noticed that one of my trolls, “understood by few”, keeps going on about how prices in Victoria’s core are 40% higher than at the peak in 2010.

As I often do, I’ve ignored this troll’s attempts to engage me in a ridiculous conversation about an issue that I’ve already addressed.

This troll claims that the claims of a realtor friend should be taken as positive proof that prices are 40% higher.

Apparently we’re supposed to believe this troll when this individual hasn’t provided verifiable proof of any recent sales. Even if that was done, we would still need sale prices of the same homes in 2010 and proof that no renovations had been done on the properties.

I’ve done some quick calculations with the local board’s frankenumber price index. Based on their data, SFH prices in Victoria (city) were 10.9% higher than in May 2010.

As I said, that’s based on the local board’s frankenumber. It’s probably safe to assume that the actual price increase is less than that.

No 40% gain and no flying pigs.

For those who don’t already know, I’m not glued to the comments section of Garth’s blog like some commenters are.

#20 Big Dipper on 04.15.16 at 7:00 pm

#8 God Emperor Trump on 04.15.16 at 6:27 pm

———————————————–

The best! Two Trumps up!

#21 For those about to flop... on 04.15.16 at 7:00 pm

God Emperor Trump @ 8 ,you almost won weirdest post of the week but VREU ‘ s post about her offence at the poster” off with your head ” was more bizarre.

Close but no cigars…

M41BC

P.S. Message to MF ,if you are lurking that’s o.k but I hope you are well and your investments are coming back.I put my tfsa money this year into CAD equity and I couldn’t have done any better,l learnt from last years mistakes.

#22 understood by few on 04.15.16 at 7:06 pm

Free Porsche
1. Offer valid for purchases made on April 16, 2016 only (“offer period”).

Nothing screams impulse buy like a one day offer.

My bet is the local Porsche dealer is hurting too, so sell a few off to a developer at wholesale and make your money on service/maintenance. You give them away directly you can’t sell at msrp, but at arms length it works. Considering the allowed holdback is 50K that’s probably what they are paying for the 66K msrp car.

#23 For those about to flop... on 04.15.16 at 7:16 pm

Hey Bdy Sktrn,check out this fancy pad I just got in the mail.
There is a new kid on the block and I don’t know how I am going to feel about using a different realtors paper as I have been exclusively sponsored by Paul Evanston the last few years…

http://imgur.com/OKCPByu

#24 tundra pete on 04.15.16 at 7:20 pm

Overhead electrical supply in Vancouver and the lower mainland increases the post earthquake fire hazard. Water supply mains running from the northshore under Burrard inlet are at significant risk of failure during an earthquake.

Vancouver has 5 fireboats to service the lower mainland but did sell the one boat with more pumping flow than the five combined to Seattle.

The biggest risk to Vancouver following an earthquake is fire versus structural damage.

#25 Panhead on 04.15.16 at 7:33 pm

#24 tundra pete on 04.15.16 at 7:20 pm
The biggest risk to Vancouver following an earthquake is fire versus structural damage.

No it’s not … lack of Starbuck’s man …

#26 common sense on 04.15.16 at 7:35 pm

#18 Smokie

Hope it’s not liver related…that would be hard on so many levels for you…

Hope the rest and relaxation help…

#27 S.Bby on 04.15.16 at 7:36 pm

#23 For those about to flop…

The best thing about R/E agents are their pads… if you use the back.

#28 Cici on 04.15.16 at 7:47 pm

Oh dear Lord Norm, quit being so hard on poor wifey…you are both disoriented.

$1.2 million would not make you “rich”; just very comfortable, and don’t forget that you’d still have that $270,000 cottage mortgage that you qualify as “debt-free”…LOL! Oh and by the way, the rates on term deposits suck at the moment, and risk to keep on sucking into the near future.

Seriously dude…sell the friggin cottage…you say it was a “great deal”–yet now, three years down the road, you still owe $270,000 on it? If it was a good deal at that obscene price three years ago, could you not get some serious cash for it now at the (maybe) top of the market? Think about it…you use the cottage maybe three months out of the year, but the rest of the time you are putting time, money and work into it. But selling it would “make you feel poor” right? And all of your friends would look down on you. Boo-hoo, I’m not crying for you.

Picture this: sell the cottage for a million or more, invest the proceeds with an expert like Garth instead of getting absolutely nothing but taxable interest from the bank on a term deposit. Stay in your little house with little expenses (no fancy additions or renovations on that sucker please) and keep ploughing money into your investments. Rent a cottage for a month every summer or take a nice holiday if it will make you feel “less poor” – By the time you are 55, you will be f&cking rich and you won’t give a sh&t what anyone thinks about you.

#29 Hotdogs from Heaven on 04.15.16 at 7:52 pm

It’s not just the cost of housing, but the maintenance.

I just got our annual budget from condo board where we live. We’ve had very small increases the last few years, but this year? HOLY CRAP!

I quote from the budget “In addition, utility costs increased 24% from the 2015-2016 Budget year and represent 45.8% of the current budget”.

The next paragraph states “Unfortunately this year’s operating budget will increase due to the rising cost of Utilities (24% increase) with hydro costs increasing 31%.”

The last paragraph states “The increase to your common element assessment for this year is 15.00%”.

They bolded and underlined the 15.00%.

It will cost us almost $100 more per month.

This is for a condo in a building in one of Toronto’s poorer neighborhoods. Apart from two other condo’s and a handful of townhouses the rest of the neighborhood is old 1950’s and 1960’s apartment buildings.

My wife and I will be fine since we’re baby boomers with decent careers and savings, but how do millenials buying those crappy units down town afford increases like this when they can only come up with 5% for the down payment? What about house buyers. Does nobody ever consider the costs AFTER the house/condo is purchased???

There is a world of hurt coming! Thanks Kathleen!

#30 Not an MD on 04.15.16 at 8:03 pm

#18 Smoking Man

Liver dz – Hepatic encephalopathy, hepatic coagulopathy

DVM

#31 acdel on 04.15.16 at 8:23 pm

Sounds like the liver Smoking Man, go see a specialist in that field. All the best!

#32 For those about to flop... on 04.15.16 at 8:25 pm

#27 S.Bby on 04.15.16 at 7:36 pm
#23 For those about to flop…

The best thing about R/E agents are their pads… if you use the back.

/////////////////////////////////
What ,and give up drawing a different facial feature on Paul Evanston each day?

I am still waiting for my Mark Farquar pad as the first thing I will do to it is draw a Pinocchio nose on it especially when he tells me that Vancouver real estate peaked in 2013.

Maybe I will just stick a broom handle through it…

M41BC

#33 Brian Ripley on 04.15.16 at 8:28 pm

Someone asked the other day where Ottawa housing data is for March…. I contacted the OREB at the beginning of the week and they said their data supplier is having a problem and the data will be later this month.

So I have not updated a few of my charts yet that include Ottawa data, but will do when OREB publishes.

I was in a store today and noticed that a number of items that I have bought there in the past couple of years have gone up in price maybe 50% or more. I commented to the sales staff that I noticed the difference and suggested that the USD is probably having an effect on some prices and real estate costs also must be working their way onto the shelves. The salesman agreed and said that a lot of Americans are showing up. Maybe so… but why would Americans buy our overpriced stuff when they buy their own for half the trouble. The sales staff seemed to also think a lot of investment money is pouring into Canada/Vancouver.

Not according to my “debt” chart which includes the net trade plot: http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

For almost 20 years FDO has been higher than FDI. Investment money has been outbound and the trend is widening. Low labour and low regulatory jurisdictions are where the money flows to.

The U.S. nominees for the Whitehouse want to solve this similar problem for themselves as well… so I question the idea that the Canadian economy is going to get invigorated from the trade association with the U.S. We have a history of not doing that well in trade negotiations.

According to VICE’s recent story on the industrial production of meat and the end of water in the world… we will be selling a lot more water to the U.S. than oil or nat-gas… not trinkets at my local dollar store.

https://news.vice.com/article/meat-is-murder-on-the-climate-anyway

#34 common sense on 04.15.16 at 8:29 pm

#27 S. Bay

When I receive and RE promo material at Xmas, I enjoy cutting their names and faces off them and still using them..

#35 Ace Goodheart on 04.15.16 at 8:29 pm

Still may not get the correction everyone is waiting for in Toronto for a couple more years. Vancouver on the other hand looks ripe and ready to pop.

I would still say, if you own a house in Toronto and you are mortgage free or almost mortgage free, and you have decided to sell, wait a few more years.

If you are in Vancouver and in the above situation, run, run, run……

#36 Pierre on 04.15.16 at 8:37 pm

“Rates will be 5% or higher within 2 to 3 years.”

Proof?
Your comment contains lies/false information.

#37 Binder Dundat on 04.15.16 at 8:38 pm

Not an MD on 04.15.16 at 8:03 pm
#18 Smoking Man

Liver dz – Hepatic encephalopathy, hepatic

Yep- bruising was proably from ascites- time to see a doctor, man. Don’t drink on holiday. Seriously.

#38 Tree on 04.15.16 at 8:47 pm

#18 Smoking Man

Also not not an MD. EtOH induced pancreatitis. Quit drinking man or the grave is coming for ya.

#39 Bram on 04.15.16 at 8:48 pm

#35 Ace Goodheart on 04.15.16 at 8:29 pm
If you are in Vancouver and in the above situation, run, run, run……

You could, of course.

But show me one other asset that goes up with 3%…




per month.

That means +$50K per month on an E Van house.
Or +$100K per month on a W Van house.
Tax free.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx
While that graph goes vertical, you ride it all the way up.

If I sell, It will be on the way down.

My guess is that missing the top by selling late is less hurtful that missing the top by selling X years too soon.

Five years ago, Vancouver valuation was insane, ripe for correction. Still the irrational decision won.

Bram

#40 Fan #61 on 04.15.16 at 8:52 pm

#18 Smoking Man on 04.15.16 at 6:55 pm

Get well Smokey!

You could try the university of google for all the symptoms you just described.

#41 TCContrarian on 04.15.16 at 9:05 pm

Like Rob, I sold last year in the Fraser Valley (obviously a bit ‘early’), but my gains in my investments (from proceeds of sale) have already ‘paid’ my rent for the next 2 years forward.
So I don’t understand the comment that by renting you’re “going backwards”.
But I’m not your ‘average’ investor. I was buying the energy sector at the very lows, and now nicely up from 10-40% in various securities in the sector.

By selling at bubble top (or damn near), I consider it a way to ‘short’ the sector.

Many will disagree, but who cares? Very few opinions actually count.

#42 6 oh for on 04.15.16 at 9:05 pm

Garth, with your rule of 90 basically nobody is going to be buying a home if they’re just starting off. Using your rule, they won’t ever be able to afford a place.

Always own your own home. When you own you won’t need to waste money on rent cause that’s money you’ll never get back. Eventually your place will be paid off and that’s when you’ll be glad you own. It’s a place to live, not an investment. If the price goes up that’s great and if it goes down its no big deal cause you’re not selling anyway.

There are times and places to buy, and other times and places when buying constitutes excessive risk. Your mantra of buy-always is lame and dangerous. — Garth

#43 Mark on 04.15.16 at 9:14 pm

“Garth, with your rule of 90 basically nobody is going to be buying a home if they’re just starting off. Using your rule, they won’t ever be able to afford a place. “

Well a family that took their downpayment funds in the early 1990s, and, instead of putting them into a house, put them into the stock market (ie: a TSE “TIPS” index fund, or even a S&P500 fund) grew their money enough by the end of the decade to buy the house they had their eyes set upon in cash. Without a mortgage.

Meanwhile those who bought with a mortgage at the 1990s peak, sweated over minimal, if not slightly negative equity. Interest rates approaching double digits. And their decade worth of payments amounting to very little equity a decade later once maintenance was properly performed.

There’s a right time for everything, and the evidence adduced is that Canadian housing prices are at nosebleed levels.

The Realtors are now claiming that the ‘average’ Canadian house is $508k. Leaving aside, for a moment, that most, if not all of that “increase” over the past 3 years is on account of a shift to the sales mix, that puts Canadian housing at a P/E ratio at 45. The Canadian stock market (ie: TSX) trades at a P/E ratio of under 15. Dollar for dollar invested, you’re getting over 3X as much value buying stocks than one gets buying housing.

#44 Suede on 04.15.16 at 9:30 pm

HOME SALES HIT RECORD IN MARCH

screams the headline and radio bit…except in Vancouver and Toronto, L OH L.

Is there no one out there that has a summary of stats including price and volume over the last 10 years, like a stock chart?

#45 tkid on 04.15.16 at 9:31 pm

You want advice, Norm? I’m a chick and here’s what I would do if I had a husband as breathlessly panicked over real estate as your wife is.

I’d ditch the moron. Sell everything. Split it up 50/50. Find a nice financial advisor and invest my winnings. Live off the interest while I toured the world on a yearl-long backpack vacation.

Why would I ditch the moron? People who are breathlessly panicked about frickin’ real estate right now are completely and utterly unable to be rational. I figger moron would probably find me 4 years later after he’d blown through his share of the dough.

Your wife won’t let you sell the cottage. She won’t let you sell the house. She will hammer away at you until you give in on buying a bigger place or agree to renovate the current digs. You have to let her go if you want to make sane rational financial decisions.

#46 Mark on 04.15.16 at 9:34 pm

“That means +$50K per month on an E Van house.
Or +$100K per month on a W Van house.
Tax free.”

Only problem with that Bram is that prices on individual houses without improvements aren’t rising. The increases you’re seeing to the Realtor-quoted averages are on account of the sales mix shifting so dramatically on account of the first-time buyers leaving the marketplace.

More likely is that there’s been no appreciation for the past few years on any un-improved Vancouver house. Which is why we have no big selling panic. People are calling their Realtors, looking at comps, and realizing that they’re not any further ahead than they were 3 years ago. Of course, the prices of 3 years ago, ie: today’s prices, are still at nosebleed levels relative to other assets, but many Realtors have to bring the expectations of homeowners who keep reading this “house price increase” nonsense in the newspapers back down to Earth.

#47 MF on 04.15.16 at 9:36 pm

#21 For those about to flop… on 04.15.16 at 7:00 pm

Hey flop, I’m here and doing well. How’d you know I have been lurking lol. Just have not had much time to post with all the new hours I am doing at work. Thanks for the well wishes. My portfolio has improved yes, almost broken even at this point. Lessons learned here too!

#18 Smoking Man on 04.15.16 at 6:55 pm

Glad to see you are back to posting (even if a little). Sounds like viral pneumonia. That type is less symptomatic than the bacterial version. Usually they have to do the X-ray to even tell if you have it.

Hope you are better soon.

MF

#48 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.15.16 at 9:41 pm

#18 Smoking Man on 04.15.16 at 6:55 pm

get better soon SM. things aren’t the same without your posts. pneumonia sucks. all the best

#49 takla on 04.15.16 at 9:47 pm

I used to fret and agonize over this currect realestate phenomenon and run away bank money printing/ lending and fluffing of asset class’s then it hit me…altho they’ve screwed me being a saver with zero interest rates,hard assets will be pennies on the dollar on the otherside……then
a warm and fuzzy feeling came over me ahhhhhh

#50 MF on 04.15.16 at 9:52 pm

#140 Ace Goodheart on 04.15.16 at 1:54 pm

“anyone who had just kept their house in 1991”

That’s the problem. When you are over leveraged you cannot “just keep your house for 25 years”. In 1991 we had a stronger more diversified economy, normal interest rates and less debt.

#147 Noel on 04.15.16 at 3:56 pm

I went to school with tons of brand new immigrants in the 90’s in the GTA and house prices still stagnated for a decade.

This hilarious joke of a “market” we have going on now is a direct result of failed policies like ZIRP that will inevitably 100% backfire and bring it all down, everyone’s trillion dollar house included. I don’t agree with Garth with this slow melt, I see it all crashing. What’s stopping it? All the levers have already been pulled. Where do you think interest rates will go during the next economic “crisis” to save it all? History shows there WILL be another economic crisis. NIRP means a total failure and loss of confidence and rates are already zero bound, plus we are already trillions in debt due to “stimulus” The next crisis (or even hickup) will bring this gasbag down immigrants or not.

MF

#51 paulo on 04.15.16 at 9:59 pm

living in the twilight zone- the real one, just reading this this article makes me feel this way, well we the wife and myself and the cat – sorry budget does not allow a pooch are in the “poor and destitute” class with our combined after tax income of 76k per year we are debt free excepting monthly utility bills and rent , and even if we could convince the bank of mom or” joe” at the pool hall to front a down payment on a pile- simply wouldn’t go there rather like sleeping at nite and being able to afford a movie and dinner date at Mc’ D’S we have maxed our tfsa contributions and are looking at a after tax net of about 30k per year after paying the bills and sleeping well excepting when other issues delay that. we are in are late 40’s what you advise we look at doing to plan for retirement , we have a total of about 300k in investments consisting of tfsa accounts totaling 32k 30 k in bank 25 k in us treasury notes @5.78% a small property valued around 200k ca and no debt i know you love to look at the greater fools as do we but our income is spot on average for the average Canadian household so how about the average guys what say you? p.s. love your blog and credit it from saving us from joining the ranks of the greater fools

#52 Bram on 04.15.16 at 10:34 pm

#46 Mark on 04.15.16 at 9:34 pm
Only problem with that Bram is that prices on individual houses without improvements aren’t rising.
These are Teranet House Price Index numbers.

They are *resale* values of the same properties.
Improved properties have been filtered out, read their methodology spec.
No sales-mix influence.

And no, no lag either, judging from the fact that the 2008 crisis showed up as a dip in 2008 on the graph, and not 3 yrs later as you like to claim.

No lag, no sales-mix, not realtor-fudging, just cold hard numbers.
It may not jibe with your theory, but those are the numbers.

Bram

#53 WUL on 04.15.16 at 10:34 pm

Smoky:

Fan #41 here.

You as a former Junior hard rock blue liner that could throw the Dukes knows better than most that ya gotta play hurt.

I say you have at least 15 years commenting here ahead of you. Kinda the Gordie Howe of Blog Dogs.

Get well and we will see you down the trail.

WUL

You as a former hard rock

#54 VRE Truther on 04.15.16 at 10:47 pm

VRE #17

As greater fool I will jump into the fray. The problem with your Oak Bay SFH report is that the numbers are cherry picked. From VRB http://www.vreb.org/historical-statistics using annual stats which are more representative and less variable:

For Oak Bay SFH 2010***946, 379 / Change from 2010
2013***903,852 -4.50%
2014***954,483 +0.86%
2015***1,080,368 +14.16%

I have little faith in the accuracy of the VRB numbers, also. And this doesn’t account for general inflation. But if one uses these numbers to make a statement about Oak Bay the data for the last 2 years which showed improved prices should be included. With inflation Oak Bay SFHs have about regained the losses since 2010. Granted this occurred in a milieu of lower interest rates. I have no dog in the Oak Bay real estate fight so I don’t care what prices do. I just find it disingenuous to use only the data from the years that fit a given argument.

#55 Shirley Valentine on 04.15.16 at 11:00 pm

#1 fan of Smokey Babe.

Heal up that liver you studly beast of an alien. Otherwise the blog will end up discussing real estate and etfs.. and that’s no fun at all. May want to lay off the rentals too. All aboard the spaceship. The book, the book….Party on.

#56 Frank on 04.15.16 at 11:03 pm

VREU recent Oak Bay Sales…….3 year old numbers.

Never change buddy.

#57 Ctrl+Alt+Meds on 04.15.16 at 11:10 pm

Sorry Smoking Man you are still not feeling well. Please post a link to your website.
Don’t wanna turn this forum into a free-for-all health advice column unless it’s for your Forex Account.

#58 For those about to flop... on 04.15.16 at 11:26 pm

This is my new pet the sales mix bear.
When I say”Mark” he growls at me…

M41BC

http://imgur.com/ptq3MxF

#59 No Mercy on 04.15.16 at 11:28 pm

SM > get well. Go see a doc. Get a subscription for MJ and get brownies. What is better than brownies and milk?

#60 Fed-up on 04.15.16 at 11:41 pm

Making sense of madness…

So let’s just forget about a correction, crash, slow melt etc. Let’s consider reversion back to normal valuations which is about 3 times annual household earnings for a detached home.

This would require a 35%-85% drop/melt/correction/stagnation in prices taking into account all major urban markets. I mean we’re talking about Winterpeg and Hammertown finding themselves in this range of over-valuation and now even London Ontario??? Good grief!

The harsh truth is stock markets, equities and commodities can easily correct by this much and it is not at all rare to see it happen. And yes I know, those investments can recover. But tell that to Canadian home owners who have never seen that kind of a severe correction or crash in housing and are protected and shielded by our banks and governments at all levels and at all costs.

This is what those who have waited and continue to wait, are up against. This is why we still don’t have anything close to this level of reversion in Calgary or Edmonton where the economy has sucked wind for the past 2 years. The deck is clearly stacked against anyone who would like to purchase within the 3 X formula and without residing in a mining community.

My 2 cents may be worth just that, 2 cents. But I believe it’s time to leave Canada if you have the means, health, skills, ambition and mobility to do so. You can own outright and still be balanced and diversified in many other 1st world countries. Most notably, the one just south of our border.

Many have waited more 10-12 years to make sense of ownership. Waiting for another 10-15 and dealing with landlords without knowing the outcome? Life is far too short.

#61 nonplused on 04.15.16 at 11:52 pm

Poor Norm.

Anyway I don’t understand cabins or vacation homes. I guess they are a symbol of wealth like a Porsche or Lambo or Beemer, but really, why would you want a second home and all the related expenses when you can rent a hotel or condo right next door for a fraction of the annual cost? I think it must come down to “real estate always goes up” again.

I know Garth hates RV’s, but again you can get a decent one with a slide for $30,000 (which is a lot but 1/10 the cost of a cabin), go anywhere, pay no property tax, and park it for $25 a night. Cost wise way better than being locked in to one location and paying $3000 a year in property taxes alone let alone that you have to leave the heat on even when you aren’t there. The RV? $8 worth of plumber’s anti-freeze and you park and forget it for the winter. No property taxes or utilities.

Ya sure RV’s have their disadvantages. You have to deal with propane which is more expensive than natural gas, but on the other hand you only heat it when you are in it so if you go through $80 of propane a year that’s a big year. Yes your truck only gets 10 mpg instead of 15 while pulling the beast. And yes campsites are harder and harder to find. But compared to a cabin it’s 1/10 the cost and 1/10 the hassle.

#62 Kapiskasing Rider on 04.16.16 at 12:06 am

Trudeau has been getting blasted in international media for his lack of intellect. We all knew what was coming, a Canadian media blitz by Liberal sycophants to try and paint this dullard as brighter than he really is.

“Speaking at the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics where he was making a funding announcement, the prime minister said he was excited by what he had learned earlier in the day on the topic.”

“Excited to parrot what he’d been primed for earlier in the day would have been an apt quote”.

Trudeau is no more a theoretical physicist that my pet fish Ralph. This is an angry and dishonest response by the Liberal Media to try and lie to Canadians about the inadequacies of the person they’ve foisted upon us.

look at the photograph they’ve used of Trudeau standing in front of a long and complicated equation, of which he hasn’t a clue, in order to associate him with something intellectual. Why didn’t they just give him big boobs?

#63 Kapiskasing Rider on 04.16.16 at 12:08 am

Forgot the references sorry.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/dont-get-me-started-trudeau-delivers-impromptu-quantum-computing-lesson

Don’t want you to think I’m dishonest and cowardly.

#64 Island Girl on 04.16.16 at 12:35 am

#19 Victoria Real Estate Update
I don’t doubt that real estate is off and makes no sense, and is likely up in some places and down in others, but my street alone 2 houses sold, one for $2500 below asking (Listed Mar 31, sold April 2 for $382000), the second was listed for $349 and sold for $323 (Listed Feb 3, sold Feb 23). Both houses are on lots 1/3 the size of ours and about 200sqft smaller. We bought for $285 less than a year ago.

I am really hoping it’s just a freakish blip caused by insane people who are panicking about the market .

#65 James K. on 04.16.16 at 12:42 am

I bet the Porsche will outlast the made-of-pressed-dust condo.

Do the buyers realize that the car is already included in the condo price?

#66 Shagadelic Sam on 04.16.16 at 1:01 am

Trudeau Liberals pay institute 50 million tax payer dollars to let Junior speak.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/dont-get-me-started-trudeau-delivers-impromptu-quantum-computing-lesson

Vancouver neighborhoods are gutted by Ghost Buyers forcing up prices.

http://vancouversun.com/

And other reasons to fear for Canada. You can try to bury your head in the sand but reality will find you anyway. The ghost town created by HAM has schools closing, businesses burdened with extraordinary taxation. It’s real whether you like it or not.

#67 Freedom First on 04.16.16 at 3:30 am

#45 tkid

Yes. There is idiot males and idiot females.

However, tkid, you are no idiot. You are one smart woman.

Also, Smoker(?), fan #33 here. Be well soon. I miss your sanity. Peace out.

#68 TRT on 04.16.16 at 3:51 am

DELETED

#69 Broken Rock on 04.16.16 at 5:07 am

Smoking Man,
Ask your doctor about infective endocarditis. Rule it out.

#70 joe on 04.16.16 at 6:03 am

Canada is collapsing, overcrowded Toronto , with pesky weather…….and delusional prices…………
Summer time you can’t breath…like Chinese smog in Bnjing
Wait when Canadian dollar will go down.
..and investors start to pull money out………………

There is nothing in Canada…..very stagnant country without vigor anymore……….

#71 Bottoms_Up on 04.16.16 at 8:25 am

#18 Smoking Man on 04.15.16 at 6:55 pm
——————————-
No clue about the bruises but maybe someone is trying to poison you with anti-freeze?

#72 John Smith on 04.16.16 at 9:28 am

So.. CHMC is insuring the Porsche loan?

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.16 at 10:08 am

@#18 Smoking Man
“My hospital doc said I have had a pnomonia…..”
*******************************************

Doctors ( like economists, judges and, or course, realtors) are arrogantly fallible.

Go get another opinion. And another and another.

#74 RimJabba on 04.16.16 at 10:34 am

Smoking Man, NWO is showering us with slow kill bioweapons. You probably got hit with their Mycoplasma Fermentans and one of their designer modified flu viruses.

Not fun! Thankfully easily cured if you know what to take.

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.16 at 10:59 am

@#109 My dog has issues on April11

“Getting sick of hearing about Vancouver real estate….”
*******************************************

Try living here and being exposed to it 7 days a week. Endless braggadoccio in elevators, restaurants, sporting events, co-workers, loud cell phone conversations, rapid transit riders, and on and on and on.
The uninformed lemming masses spewing out their “advice” on how “rich” they are because they “own” or that they just “bought in” to the market.
These same people either not realizing or caring they have saddled themselves with a 25 year + mortgage because “Hey! Its only debt.”

Or if they own the title free and clear they have zero savings and the house is only worth what it eventually sells for ( I have a co worker who is 61 and has no pension, no RRSP’s, no investments of any type, Nothing saved other than 2 weeks pay.
But he has 1 more year on his mortgage and takes ‘awesome” vacations to Hawaii every year……because he’s ‘house rich’ and doesnt have to worry because “housing always goes up”…he lives in Victoria in a crappy neighbourhood)

Uninformed Greater Fools are gonna get skinned and I wont be saying ” I told you so”…….
I’ll be too busy “vultching”

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.16 at 11:07 am

@Brazil Expat

Never mind your obsession with the imagined meltdown of Wall St and the entire democratic process….

Hows that Presidential impeachment process going in Brazil these days?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-idUSKCN0XC1G1

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.16 at 11:38 am

@ Brazil ExPat

and the front page of todays New York times……..

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/16/world/americas/fight-to-impeach-brazils-leader-tears-at-fabric-of-daily-life.html

#78 Jackie Luftmensch on 04.16.16 at 12:01 pm

If Trudeau Liberals are so wrong about running up huge deficits, why aren’t Liberals protesting the destruction of the Canadian economy? Are the Liberals actually attempting to create the groundwork for a coup? Isn’t this what the Obama crowd has done?

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/philip-cross-trudeaus-deficits-were-so-not-needed

#79 Chris in Nanaimo on 04.16.16 at 12:11 pm

‘Debt free’……with a $270k mortgage.

Lol…….

#80 Prairieboy43 on 04.16.16 at 12:28 pm

All the best Smoking Man. Had Pneumonia as a child. Not a pleasant experience. It will probably come back to haunt me when I depart. In the meantime. I have a balanced portfolio, not encumbered with debt. Living stress free (other than Tax changes), no grey hair in upper forty’s.Exercising daily to be ready for hunting/fishing season this spring and fall. Get Well Soon Smoking Man
PB43

#81 paul on 04.16.16 at 12:42 pm

#65 James K. on 04.16.16 at 12:42 am

I bet the Porsche will outlast the made-of-pressed-dust condo.

Do the buyers realize that the car is already included in the condo price?
———————————————————-
There you go spoiling everything, The car is free I heard you didn’t even have to buy the Condo and they would still give you the car. When I called ,the sales person said come in to the sales office and he would see what he could do. SO THERE!!!!

#82 Brazil ex-pat on 04.16.16 at 12:45 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-13/deutsche-bank-settles-silver-price-fixing-claims-lawyers-say

Good thing gold and silver are not money. And of course as always…..no banker will ever go to jail.

#83 TurnerNation on 04.16.16 at 12:57 pm

I vote today’s hapless blog dog build uppa uppa and turn his sht bung into a vertical Mcmansion. (There’s no replacement for displacement). Or, get a divorce.

There’s hope. I’ll be 41 this year. Currently dating a girl turning 27 this month. MGTOW? Or common sense. Of course 3x to the gym each week is my part.

#84 liqudincalgary on 04.16.16 at 12:59 pm

@ SM

here are some feminazi fails you may get a giggle from:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9A9x13LKyQ&ebc=ANyPxKoEFtrTgglblKvN6irzyWiSza21_Ue8kWR4Zl9PGJf1n7ik-xavQgJ1Y6XxOnYyzFKBso9x5hWkOfWbhpyKdR4KMXv5VQ

#85 TurnerNation on 04.16.16 at 1:19 pm

Ps. I only date girls with Masters obedience certs or higher. Something about 5 yrs in a confined setting creating pent up angst seeking release?

Smoking man take tons of vitamins. And see a DVM..?

#86 Renter's Revenge! on 04.16.16 at 1:30 pm

Whenever I hear the word “impeachment”, it makes me think of warm weather and peaches.

Do they have peaches in Brazil, I wonder, or just corrupt politicians and a society on the verge of collapse?

#87 Porsche on 04.16.16 at 1:41 pm

FLASHBACK

Just remembered about 1990 when I assumed the mortgage on my first house with $8,000.

Took me a 6 whole months to save that whopping down payment on my salary… lol

#88 Basil Fawlty on 04.16.16 at 1:52 pm

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/cnw/release.html?rkey=20160415C2179&filter=5609

Class action lawsuit brought by investors in the silver market, against defendents including the Bank of Nova Scotia. After Duetch Banks out of court admission of guilt, it is clearly established that the real conspiracy theorists were those that denied any manipulation was occuring in the precious metals market.
Funny, in this past week, Goldman Sachs was fined $5B for mortgage fraud according to Kitco News.

#89 Grey Dog on 04.16.16 at 2:11 pm

Norm, DO NOT MOVE TO GEORGETOWN, yikes the KKK has roots in there, and I spend my time looking around thinking are YOU a member when I have dealings with someone. (Just when I talk myself out of the KKK cant possibly exist in Canada today, last year I overheard a conversation from one guy had just been asked to join!). They take pride in NOT having public transit in order to keep out undesirables. Mind you one can get through and into hospital emergency pretty quick if what is ailing you isn’t too serious.

If your spouse is a teacher and gets 2 or 3 months off, I can sort of rationalize a cottage, otherwise get rid of it. That is what is draining your current cash flow problem.

Continue saving big time, read Buffett biography he is still in original home, and keep your eyes peeled for your future self 20 years hence, when you can kiss the workplace place good bye. In the meantime, with no cottage, take those destination vacations if you continue to earn the big bucks, while saving RRSP, RESP, and TFSAs, and don’t forget about plumping up those unregistered savings!

#90 Brazil ex-pat on 04.16.16 at 2:48 pm

#86 Renter’s Revenge! on 04.16.16 at 1:30 pm
Whenever I hear the word “impeachment”, it makes me think of warm weather and peaches.

Do they have peaches in Brazil, I wonder, or just corrupt politicians and a society on the verge of collapse?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

How’s that student loan working out? Have it paid off in 15 years will you? Here in Brazil university is FREE.

How’s the MRI coming along? Oh…..so sorry to hear your MSP rates are going up…the list the shit NOT covered is going up and your shoulder is wrecked for life because you could not get surgery for 3 years.

How’s the weather? Minus 35 in Ontar-I-Owe?

How is all your gross boxed, processed disgusting food working out for all you sickies out there?

Every country is CORRUPT. Oh….how many corrupt Govt and Banker people go to jail in N. America? Oh that’s right….ZERO.

Enjoy your overtaxed, under serviced, student loan for life, processed food, 2.5 million dollar mold shack Canada !!

#91 Smoking Man on 04.16.16 at 4:24 pm

Wow lots of get well wishes from you dogs.

Thanks . Much appreciated.

Going try and find me a ufo this week. I’ll share on twitter .. area 51 on Thursday.

#92 The stuff of stars on 04.16.16 at 5:23 pm

#91 Smoking Man on 04.16.16 at 4:24 pm
Wow lots of get well wishes from you dogs.

Thanks . Much appreciated.

Going try and find me a ufo this week. I’ll share on twitter .. area 51 on Thursday.
—-
Shouldn’t you know where they are already seeing as you’re an alien?

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.16 at 5:27 pm

@#90 Brazil Expat

“Free University”….Like the Brazilian economy can continue to fund that little perk :)
Not to mention the “quality” of the “education”.
If the World Ranking stats are any indication

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.webometrics.info/en/Latin_America/Brazil&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiq0-SGi5TMAhUHwmMKHfrzA9wQFghEMAc&usg=AFQjCNFskNhw_hgMnze7YzQfb24Fn0TTBQ

Other than Sao Paulo at a 49th rank in the world…all the other universities arent worth bragging about……average 600th or lower.

What would you Major in? Samba dance moves?

Perhaps you should get tested for newer, more virulent strain of Zika.
Your brain is definitely shrinking and no amount of “free” taxpayer funded education can help with that.

#94 Big Dipper on 04.16.16 at 5:41 pm

#18 Smoking Man on 04.15.16 at 6:55 pm

“Garth, my 60 loyal fans.

Something is not right with me. Ever since the fever and the few days in Hospital my mind won’t get out of first gear. Firing IQ at 20 % . My body wount alow nicotine or alcohol. ”

—————————————–

Ok, I’m not part of the fore-mentioned illustrious group, but being a softy, caring, stupid, latte sipping lefty, I nevertheless wish you the best.

I was shocked when you asked for, and got, free medical advice from the right wing dipsticks that populate these pathetic efforts. Old commie saying: “you get what you pay for!”

On that note, I was dismayed to read that you availed yourself of the services of socialized medicine! A rugged, self-made multimillionaire like you exposing yourself to the nightmare of everything you hate. Of course your doctors are incompetent! All wearing pink shirts and not a risk taker in the crowd. There’s a commie hiding behind every bed pan – and probably in it.

So here is my advice. A multimillionaire like you does not have to accept the indignities of socialized health care! Get your passport and your platinum credit card and head south. Check yourself into Mayo or John Hopkins. Ten grand a day (US) will get you a room with a view of cold and hot running nurses and 24/7 Trump commercials . They’ll diagnose you with whatever and charge you big bucks. It’s paradise.

You’re welcome.

#95 waiting on the westcoast on 04.16.16 at 6:20 pm

Smokey – isn’t the UFO in your garage?

#96 Fed-up on 04.16.16 at 6:23 pm

#90 Brazil ex-pat on 04.16.16 at 2:48 pm

#86 Renter’s Revenge! on 04.16.16 at 1:30 pm
Whenever I hear the word “impeachment”, it makes me think of warm weather and peaches.

Do they have peaches in Brazil, I wonder, or just corrupt politicians and a society on the verge of collapse?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

How’s that student loan working out? Have it paid off in 15 years will you? Here in Brazil university is FREE.

How’s the MRI coming along? Oh…..so sorry to hear your MSP rates are going up…the list the shit NOT covered is going up and your shoulder is wrecked for life because you could not get surgery for 3 years.

How’s the weather? Minus 35 in Ontar-I-Owe?

How is all your gross boxed, processed disgusting food working out for all you sickies out there?

Every country is CORRUPT. Oh….how many corrupt Govt and Banker people go to jail in N. America? Oh that’s right….ZERO.

Enjoy your overtaxed, under serviced, student loan for life, processed food, 2.5 million dollar mold shack Canada !

———————————————————————————–
Nice burn Ex-pat.

Ouch…truth hurts doesn’t it?

#97 WUL on 04.16.16 at 6:34 pm

Hon. Hirsute Host:

I need your advice. With the onset of the shinny playoffs, I started my “Playoff Beard”. It is patchy, sparse and “salt and pepper”. I have besieged you for grooming tips for boomers and nary a word!!!

I am starting to suspect you steer your clients to investments in companies producing beard “product” for a commission.

Respectfully,

Peach Fuzz in McMurray

#98 conan on 04.16.16 at 6:38 pm

Cats……cats……

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk7yqlTMvp8

#99 Setting the Record Straight on 04.16.16 at 7:24 pm

Just look what the ‘locals’ have wrought!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-15/drone-flies-through-rotting-abandoned-175-million-vancouver-mansion-what-it-saw

#100 TRT on 04.16.16 at 8:23 pm

In an area with one of the highest child poverty rates in Canada. Richmond centre mall in Vancouver.

In parking lot , every fourth car with over $80,000.

Confused.

#101 Raptors Crushed, Blow Jays Lose Again, Leafs Out Again! on 04.16.16 at 8:39 pm

Toronto, you suck!!

Your sports teams are a pathetic symbol for your fourth rate status as a city.

World class?

You’re not even an Ohio class city, you delusional losers!

Your real estate is pumped up by complete idiots who think it is different there.

Well, it’s not.

Toronto real estate will plunge, far worse than in 1990.

Expect 50-75% drops from current prices (higher rates will be for condos) within three years. Nearly 100,000 condo units coming on stream in the next two years.

Lousy employment numbers. Huge personal and government debt.

If you thought 1990 was bad Toronto, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!

1967-2017 – Let’s celebrate 50 years of Maple Leaf failure, celebrated by idiot herds of fans who think it’s different there!

Lolololololololol!!!!!

#102 chris on 04.16.16 at 8:50 pm

it is the business of immigration. If immigration is shut down tomorrow I guarantee you housing price will soon flatline. Not rocket science.

#103 Scully on 04.16.16 at 9:29 pm

#18 Smoking man
Not a doctor but have seen similar symptoms in my mother. She has metastatic cancer that has spread to her liver -NOT saying you have cancer at all – just talking about her liver symptoms as they cause her liver to distress. The mental confusion results from the brain receiving toxins normally filtered out from the liver. If the liver is in distress – and it sounds like yours is from your last adventure, it can cause behavioural changes, brain fog, inability to find words. It will pass if you let your liver recover. I would see a good doctor. If not then please just take good care of yourself and give your body a break. Life is finite. We would miss you – all 60 of us :)

#104 Rexx Rock on 04.16.16 at 9:31 pm

I’m almost thinking about buy a house in Victoria and sell it for a easy $100,000 next year ,will start looking for a good deal.Avg house in Victoria 12.5 % in a year.Huge wage growth in Victoria.Good times ,just like 2008 again.

#105 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.16.16 at 11:47 pm

#46 Mark on 04.15.16 at 9:34 pm

lol your so clueless. it’s not surprising u can’t find a job lol

#106 Keith in Calgary on 04.16.16 at 11:51 pm

The full court “EXTEND AND PRETEND” game plan is “on” with full force at Canada’s banks…………

Was in the line at the GREEN BANK today.

On a couple of their numerous flat screen TV’s with propaganda they had a blurb for the “Flexible Mortgage”…….yep……you guessed it. Miss a payment, skip several payments, reduce several payments…….due to life’s unexpected turns…….

Heh.

FIAT money…..what a joke……

#107 45north on 04.16.16 at 11:51 pm

Bram: My guess is that missing the top by selling late is less hurtful that missing the top by selling X years too soon.

the top is only apparent a year after the fact. As Mark says a change in the sales mix hides a drop in prices. I mean if you want to see rising prices then you’ll see rising prices.

Chaddywack talks about the guy at work that used his equity in one house to buy four! He ( the guy ) wants to see rising prices. He totally wants it. He is the last person to see a falling market. It’s not like he’s a day trader and hits the sell key when the house down the street doesn’t sell. Even if he does hit the sell key, it doesn’t matter. He’s not selling stocks, he’s selling a house. One house. Maybe he gets an offer in 30 days, maybe he doesn’t.

A guy at my work just bought his 4th house this year. (He’s Asian, but born in East Van–a lot of people mix him up as a foreign investor at open houses apparently from what he tells me!) anyway he mortgaged his house in West Van worth about $3M to buy 2 houses earlier this year, then a third, now a fourth!!! Yes he has a ton of equity in the fully paid off West Van house, but wow.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/04/11/cruel-april/#comment-443742

#108 Brazil ex-pat on 04.17.16 at 12:14 am

#100 TRT on 04.16.16 at 8:23 pm
In an area with one of the highest child poverty rates in Canada. Richmond centre mall in Vancouver.

In parking lot , every fourth car with over $80,000.

Confused.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

10,000 posts by people on this blog as to the owners of those vehicles and your confused? Now THATS confusing !!

#109 Richmond Walker on 04.17.16 at 12:19 am

DELETED

#110 Richmond Walker on 04.17.16 at 12:20 am

OH OH…I meant to say “Go to the Chimo Center”, not ‘Chimp Center’, fat fingers and no spell checks or go backs on the blog.

#111 WUL on 04.17.16 at 12:34 am

Wow.

Please, my fellow Canuckleheads, watch this.

Especially you Garth, you old Sierra Clubber.

10 minutes of your time. Then you can get back to “Drill Baby Drill”.

http://petapixel.com/2016/04/14/visit-arctic-nat-geos-vincent-munier-spectacular-short-film/

#112 Ace Goodheart on 04.17.16 at 3:31 am

Currently collecting dividends off around 200K worth of various stocks. I buy more every month (with the dividends).

Also have a rental building in the T-dot that goes up in value about 50K per year.

Own my house (also in T-dot).

Worked my **s off getting to this point (I run businesses, which basically means I am a slave, working hours – 12-14 hrs per day, + 8 hrs Sat and Sun for ten years and counting).

Wondering when to sell my rental building (200K mortgage, worth about 650K in Toronto).

I am sitting on the fence right now, sh*tting bricks. I figure, two more years of this nonsense before markets correct, then I sell the rental building. But if I am wrong, I lose like many hundreds of thousands of dollars, which as a business person working crazy hours, is significant.

Oh well. I have faith in the T-dot. And they are building a brand new underground LRT basically directly in front of my rental building.

Rental building clears 7000 per year after all expenses (tenants pay the mortgage). So I have some wiggle room.

#113 Ace Goodheart on 04.17.16 at 4:09 am

Just reading this:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortgages-real-estate/08/ten-worst-mistakes.asp

I think it’s a load of crap.

I was sitting here tonight, figuring that perhaps people not like me, might be circulating out there trying to find a house so they can have babies, raise families and have the “Canadian Dream” of block parties, a cool school district and some kitchy neighbourhood stuff that they can go to bed feeling good about.

They are going to do this by buying million dollar reno jobs, completed by wanna be contractors, in “prime” neighbourhoods, and because it is 2016 and we are all wired up and on the line, everything will be fine, there is a greater power taking care of everything and you just have to work hard and get high points on your “evals”.

So yeah, no point trying to help folks here. Everything is cool and about to get better. Santa Clause is coming.

BUT if something goes wrong. Like your million dollar, 500K house needs a new roof and there is water dripping into your bathroom, or it rains in Toronto and your basement becomes a swimming pool, or you realize that the “stunning feature” full length exposed brick wall in your newly purchased 1.3 million dollar semi in Roncy is actually a massive heat loss and your furnace cannot keep up with it……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Don’t worry. You can fix sh*t yourself. It’s like Yoga with tools. When your 100 year old double brick walls start a-crumblin’ because you are running a humidifier with no vapour barrier in your exposed brick house, you can learn brick laying! It is easy. There are videos on Youtube.

Basically it is no problem. Home ownership is fun. I know everyone wants to go to Thailand for the full moon party. We all dream about freedom and the open road. Home ownership kills all of that. Get ready to worship dirt. Have conversations about fences and what you planted and why it didn’t come up.

Have fun.

#114 Mark on 04.17.16 at 7:03 am

“Rental building clears 7000 per year after all expenses (tenants pay the mortgage).”

“Wondering when to sell my rental building (200K mortgage, worth about 650K in Toronto). “

7000/year / $650k? Really? I’d sell that tomorrow without hesitation if someone will actually give you that valuation.

I realize you probably keep it for portfolio balance reasons, but if there were ever an exit opportunity, now would probably be better than ever.

#115 Mark on 04.17.16 at 7:05 am

“lol your so clueless. it’s not surprising u can’t find a job lol”

Didn’t Garth tell you to knock it off with your trolling and made up crap?

I did. No more will be published. — Garth

#116 LP on 04.17.16 at 7:32 am

#111 WUL on 04.17.16 at 12:34 am

Wow, that is just beautiful!

#117 lower for lot longer on 04.17.16 at 7:50 am

DAVID ROSENBERG: Janet Yellen’s use of one word shows something has gone wrong

http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-says-janet-yellen-use-of-uncertainty-shows-something-has-gone-wrong-2016-4

I mean, there is nothing wrong with building wealth, but remember that democracy and capitalism are always dancing with each other on a pin.

You don’t want to have too many trailing behind because history shows us time after time that this triggers discontent among the masses, instability and inevitably, upheaval.

The Gini coefficient— a measure of income dispersion — has risen to unprecedented levels.

This by no means suggests that folks at the lower income echelons aren’t better off than they were 10, 20 or 30 years ago, but it means their share of the national income pie is getting smaller, and if you don’t think people, by their nature, aren’t constantly looking over their shoulder, then go and take a Psychology 101 course at your nearest university or community college.

It wouldn’t be so bad if the “middle class” wasn’t disappearing, because what its depletion has done is polarize society — which is why the rancor is so loud during this pre-election circus otherwise known as the U.S. primary season.

The near eradication of the middle class has coincided with a multi-year decline in the labor share of national income, and only very recently has this started to carve out a bottom and hook up (a clear reason why profit margins have started to roll over).

Of course, even as the spoils now are diverted more towards the personal sector, the implications for GDP growth which is all about “spending” are unclear given the uptrend in the savings rate.

A rising savings rate amidst lingering high excess capacity in a global basis means that deflationary pressures are not going to go away.

Central banks will be forced to offset these pressures by ongoing monetary accommodation, though as we are seeing with quantitative easing and negative rates in the euro area and Japan, central banks are losing their effectiveness.

So all this means lower for a lot longer — low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates — from an investment strategy standpoint, it is all about “Safety & Income at a Reasonable Price”, all over again.

#118 salonist on 04.17.16 at 8:24 am

sm, posing as lawrence

“What were they thinking? ‘It’s an alien apocalypse! Quick, grab the beer!”

http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/beer

#119 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 04.17.16 at 10:27 am

#114 Mark on 04.17.16 at 7:03 am
“Rental building clears 7000 per year after all expenses (tenants pay the mortgage).”

“Wondering when to sell my rental building (200K mortgage, worth about 650K in Toronto). “

Why would you sell it? Do you think the bottom is going to drop out of the market? Has it ever? Sure it will fluctuate but over time you have an income producing asset in which you are building equity, not to mention if you sell it your going to pay capital gains.

I sold revenue property just ahead of the last major market correction thinking it was time to crystallize my gains. Paid the Feds a swack of cash and today that property is worth half again what I sold it for. Sure it might correct but never so much as it gained.

Think about it; population of the planet as increased from 1 billion to over 7 in little more than the last 100 years. They all need a place to live. Supply and demand.

#120 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 04.17.16 at 10:36 am

#114 Mark on 04.17.16 at 7:03 am
“Rental building clears 7000 per year after all expenses (tenants pay the mortgage).”

“Wondering when to sell my rental building (200K mortgage, worth about 650K in Toronto). “

But… doing some rough calculations, unless I am mistaken, sounds like your getting a little over $2,000.00 per month in rent. On a $650,000 building investment you should be getting better than that. Here in Kelowna I showed a client a property with 4 rental suites that would generate better than $4,600.00 in gross revenue per month ($55,200.00 per year) on a $550,000 investment.

#121 Felix on 04.17.16 at 10:44 am

Good pic, Garth. It should remind all humans how cats can so easily outsmart them when they feel like it.

Don’t say you weren’t warned.

Behave accordingly, humans.

Remember: You belong to us. You are our slobbering, servile, stupid canines.

Have a mice day.

#122 Ace Goodheart on 04.17.16 at 11:18 am

Re: #114 Mark: “I realize you probably keep it for portfolio balance reasons, but if there were ever an exit opportunity, now would probably be better than ever.”

I keep it because it appreciates 50K per year and they’re building an underground LRT line across the street from it. I figure it might be worth something some day. It has tenants in it because I don’t want to carry it. Yes I spend a lot of time fixing clogged sinks and replacing leaky pipes.

I fully intend to sell it, just picking the time to do so. In 2021 it will have (hopefully, if you can trust government timelines) a functioning underground LRT across the street from it. I figure that’ll make it worth more.

Just hoping that until then, there’s no crash.

I don’t expect a buyer to want to run it as a rental building. It’s actually a semi detached house. I split it up (zoning allows for maximum 3 unit rentals, so I was able to get permission to do that). It can be easily converted back to a semi detached house by removing two doors and changing a kitchen back into a bedroom. It would then be a large three bedroom semi with a basement apartment, laneway parking, a backyard and a really cool location.

Oh well, we’ll see what happens I guess

#123 the other white meat (pork) on 04.17.16 at 11:21 am

#90 Brazil expat

I’ve been dating a Brazilian public functionary for a few years now and her tales of the public healthcare system and yours vary wildly. She pays big money for private healthcare because the public hospitals are nightmares and the Cuban doctors aren’t very well trained. She had to visit a hospital here in Vancouver a few years back and was blown away by the quality of care she received and the high skill levels of the staff.

I’ve read a lot of the crap and half truths about Brazil that you post here and finally had to say something. Do you ever leave your condo or gated community after dark? Or sit and talk in the car before going into a shop or restaurant? It’s a great place to be a rich gringo but life sucks for the vast majority of people who live there.

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.16 at 11:24 am

Went to the local ICBC Autoplan to renew my car insurance yesterday. (For those that arent from YVR… ICBC stands for Insurance Corporation of British Columbia which is Government Insurance brought in by the NDP back in the 70’s to thwart sky high insurance rates charged by the private sector. It became such a huge govt cash cow the “pro business” political parties that have been in power virtually ever since have kept it running)
I have a 10 year accident free “discount” of 43%( it makes no difference if you’re accident free for 20 , 30 or 40 years….43% is the best “discount ” you’ll get.
Anywho.
As I was handing over $1971.00 for my plastic decal to glue on my license plate for another year of insured driving….I asked the Insurance agent what the percentage of customers paid the entire amount or a monthly installment( which is an available option).
” You mean Caucasians?” The asian canadian agent asked.
I was a little taken aback by the wording of his question but I was curious.
“There’s a difference between Asian and Caucasian customers?”I asked
“Oh yeah! 95 % of Asians pay the full amount right away. 95 % of caucasians opt for the monthly payments. Asians are better savers” was his reply.
And as I thought of most of my pay cheque to pay cheque surviving “Gwailo” co workers and friends…..I smiled and agreed with him…….

Credit is obscenely easy to aquire and we rely on credit far far too much……..

#125 Ace Goodheart on 04.17.16 at 11:40 am

They’re auctioning the Ontario Place Log Ride Boats:

$25.00 each, for use as garden planters:

https://www.govdeals.com/index.cfm?fa=Main.Item&itemid=431&acctid=8074

Feels like they’re selling my childhood.

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.16 at 12:10 pm

@#101
Methinks you have some sort of deep down, weird Toronto inadequacy fetish.
Seek help.

#127 salonist on 04.17.16 at 12:13 pm

lower for lot longer

excerpt from the business insider article

“Then we have a slate of socio-economic factors, many of which have scars from the Great Recession.

Employment among males aged 20 to 24 has not increased in eight years and the employment rate for this group is extremely depressed even if off the bottom. Ditto for those aged 25 to 34.

As for those fertility rates, what woman wants to date, let alone marry, a guy who’s still living with mom and dad? Indeed, an unheard-of 35% of males aged between 18 and 34 live at home.

Part of the problem, a big part, is the dramatic surge in student debt, now equivalent to $100,000 per college grad, and seven years into the recovery, the delinquency rate sits at 8%. So kiss your FICO score goodbye and kiss your ability to secure a mortgage goodbye, too — and so say hello to a massive reversal in the U.S. homeownership rate which is in such steep descent that it is starting to look more and more European”

#128 Don'tWantToBuy on 04.17.16 at 12:38 pm

Long time reader since 2008. Just sent an email to Mayor Robertson, for what it’s worth…

Hello Mr. Robertson,

Just read up on your webpage for Vancouver Affordable housing Agency. I do not see any immediate plans to address this issue. We moved here in 2012 from Edmonton and would like to stay. Have you considered increasing funding to Co ops?

We are a Family of 4 renting in the westside at Langara Gardens. My children are age 9 and 11. Although this area is a very family orientated and has great public access to school, hospital and public transportation, it’s becoming unaffordable and we may have to look at moving back to Edmonton.

I am a health care professional with an income of above 100k. I moved here because I grew up in Vancouver and had a job offer, granted with 20k less in pay. Recently we had a rent increase. My Union is still at the bargaining stage but the income increase will not match the inflated housing prices.

We have looked at Purchasing an apartment and although this solves the issue of staying in the same neighbourhood, it is way more expensive. $4400 per month plus having to pay condo fee. Rent started at $1650 and now is $ 1800. We have put our applications in several co ops, some since 2011 before we moved here. We remain on wait list as there is more demand than supply.

My suggestion for you is to increase funding to coops and look at building more coops, as this is the only non profit housing option for families. Many middle class families would love to remain in Vancouver. ….I would also like to see more immediate plans to help middle class families who are trying to remain living in the city of Vancouver. Ideally Vancouver should be offering rent control or non profit housing to keep families in the city.

Please provide a response if you are able.

Don’t want to Buy

#129 salonist on 04.17.16 at 12:54 pm

statistics canada 2015

Living arrangements of young adults aged 20 to 29

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-312-x/98-312-x2011003_3-eng.cfm

#130 MarketInquisitor on 04.17.16 at 3:07 pm

Oil talks end in failure as amid Saudi demands over iran

Kuwait oil output declines 60% as worker’s strike takes hold

My original post: https://marketinquisitor.com/2016/04/12/opec-oil-doha-meeting-outlook/#more-1126

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/oil-freeze-talks-end-in-failure-amid-saudi-demands-over-iran

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/kuwait-refineries-operating-after-it-says-oil-workers-walked-out

#131 Brazil ex-pat on 04.17.16 at 3:22 pm

#123 the other white meat (pork) on 04.17.16 at 11:21 am
#90 Brazil expat

I’ve been dating a Brazilian public functionary for a few years now and her tales of the public healthcare system and yours vary wildly. She pays big money for private healthcare because the public hospitals are nightmares and the Cuban doctors aren’t very well trained. She had to visit a hospital here in Vancouver a few years back and was blown away by the quality of care she received and the high skill levels of the staff.

I’ve read a lot of the crap and half truths about Brazil that you post here and finally had to say something. Do you ever leave your condo or gated community after dark? Or sit and talk in the car before going into a shop or restaurant? It’s a great place to be a rich gringo but life sucks for the vast majority of people who live there.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Brazil is the 5th biggest country in the world. Of course levels of care will be wildly different depending on where you live.

I was from the Fraser Valley. Voted one of the worst places for health care in all of Canada. This is contrary to the level of care at VGH.

But here is a solid fact. FREE university in Brazil. 15 years of student loans in Canada….where people pay the SAME amount of tax as other countries with FREE university. Wrap your head around that.

Plus the weather is warmer, the food is better and the women are hotter than Canada !!

#132 46 and 2 on 04.17.16 at 3:54 pm

Ever considered the possibility that the oil powers that be are shorting the market?

#133 Keith in Calgary on 04.17.16 at 4:17 pm

#123 The other white meat…….

“I’ve read a lot of the crap and half truths about Brazil that you post here and finally had to say something. Do you ever leave your condo or gated community after dark? Or sit and talk in the car before going into a shop or restaurant? It’s a great place to be a rich gringo but life sucks for the vast majority of people who live there.”

I could agree more with you about this clown’s posts. I am married to a Carioca, own a condo there, speak the language now, and have been there 37-38 times since 2000……in fact I am sitting in front of my TV with my wife watching the live vote in the Camara on Globo TV, which will hopefuly result in the impeachment of the current president of Brasil, Dilma Rousseff……..

Every time I read something he posts about Brasil the term “pato” comes to mind.

#134 jess on 04.17.16 at 4:30 pm

loophole education ? new FinCen rules.

https://miamiportal.ramcoams.net/Education/Registration/Details.aspx?cid=7fb6afac-e5d0-e511-b8ba-00155da16d0d

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article69248462.html

#135 Shortymac on 04.17.16 at 4:53 pm

Dear Norm,

Here is my advice for financial freedom and making your wife happy.

1) Sell the cottage, invest the money. Promise wife you’ll move eventually, hence selling the cottage to reduce expenses.

2) Set some money aside for a wonderful vacation for your and your wife, leave kiddo with granny.

Seriously, for 2 months of cottage mortgage payment you can have an awesome vacation to Europe. That’s living! (Seriously: https://www.flightcentre.ca/vacations/packages-to-europe-from-toronto)

That isn’t counting the savings in time and money by avoiding cottage traffic. You can RENT a cottage for 500-1000 a week if that’s your thing.

3) Get an organizational expert in to help organize your current space to make it feel bigger. Seriously. Be prepared to part with some stuff, sell or donate it for a tax rebate. A decluttered place helps with stress and mood.

Get wife this book to assist: “The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing” oprah and all the other ladies are mooning over it. It actually has some really good tips.

4) If you don’t already have a cleaning service, get one. You’re making 300k a year you can afford it and give yourself some peace of mind.

TL:DR version: Basically you need to use not only logic, but emotional intelligence as well. Calm her fears, reduce BOTH of your stress levels, and actually live life.

#136 Toronto Dweller on 04.17.16 at 5:23 pm

#127. I agree. I am myself a 32 year old Millenial and basically had to reinvent myself from my Bachelor of Arts degree. Doing construction now as a sub contractor for the whose who can afford to flip. Have own car and don’t live with parents as that would seriously sap my self esteem. Renting, as I can’t afford to buy anywhere in GTA.
Honestly I think our generation will be trailing the Japanese, entering an era of low growth and low interest rates and diminishing job opportunities.

#137 Ronaldo on 04.17.16 at 6:08 pm

#128 Don’t Want To Buy –

”Ideally Vancouver should be offering rent control or non profit housing to keep families in the city.”

Rent controls. This has been tried in the distant past. The very reason condo’s came to be. Developers stopped building rental properties thereby reducing rentals supply even more. Instead, they started converting rental properties to condos (townhouses, apartment suites) and sold them off at substanially good profits and passing all the problems related to owning to the buyers. As this only made the availability of rentals worse, the government had to step in and build low cost housing units by the hundreds and as a result we have BCHDC (BC Housing Development Corp) funded by the taxpayers. I expect that this will be the future of affordable housing going forward.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.16 at 6:43 pm

@#133 Keith in Calgary
“Every time I read something he posts about Brasil the term “pato” comes to mind…..”
*******************************************

And here I thought I was the only one…… ;)

#139 Don'tWantToBuy on 04.17.16 at 9:47 pm

#137 Ranaldo

BC housing currently has a wait list of 5 to 10 years, and to be elligiable, you have to make 25k or less and not have more than 5k in savings excluding RRSP. This program is geared for the single poor or struggling single parents….

I don’t think BC housing has received any additional funding as there is no profit or votes in that….

#140 Estrella on 04.18.16 at 8:42 am

Interesting article about cost of living being more expensive for those with low income. I thought is why is the government so fixed on income inequality, and yet allowing the runaway real estate market to encourage the chasim? ?

Is the problem really how much you make OR how much you spend??

http://globalnews.ca/news/2638885/house-poor-canadians-who-earn-the-least-pay-the-most-for-a-home/?sf24560009=1

BRAZIL expat. Brazilian women are mostly a result of Portuguese women. Never forget that, they just end up wearing less clothes because they are south of the equator. I’ll leave it up to your imagination what there ln lies behind the clothes of a Portuguese classy woman.