Greed

BISON

“This,” Peter the realtor tells me, “is just dumb and greedy.”

Hard not to agree. It’s a decade-old, cookie-cutter suburban pile on a 44-foot lot an hour’s drive (on a good day, at the right time, in an A7) from downtown Vancouver. (The same distance as from the core of Hamilton to Bay & King in Toronto, where they keep all the money.)

“The current owner bought it in September of 2014 for $675,000,” Peter says of the house now listed for $1,288,800. “Just dumb & greedy. And it’s in Langley, for Pete’s sake.”

LANGLEY

Speculation and, yeah, greed are setting us up for an unknown but likely nasty consequence. This is despite the far-better economic news we’ve had lately – the muscular economic growth in January, and a gain of 42,000 jobs in March along with a rebound in oil (up 6% on Friday). That’s welcome for a country that was in recession a year ago, forced to slash interest rates twice in order to avoid a worse outcome as crude shed more than 70% of its value.

But the fact remains avarice is now the deity in control of Greater YVR, the GTA and anywhere else where people go to bed dreaming of fat profits, house-horny Guangdong industrialists and windfall, tax-free capital gains. It’s usually at this point in the cycle when fear of being priced out of a markets starts turning into buyer disgust. Never a good thing.

It’s not just Van, of course. Some days ago I brought you tales of bidding wars, insane open houses and unbridled prices in suburban Oakville. The same is happening Richmond Hill, Vaughan and even Milton, Burlington and the saucy bits of Brampton. As the BeeMo economist quoted here yesterday cautioned, romping prices bring more romping prices. Until the whole thing blows up.

So what’s happened in 416 comes to infect 905, just as the bizarre events in the housing market in urban Vancouver hit the hinterland. Now average prices in the Fraser Valley are 26% ahead of 2015 levels, pacing the bloat in the city. Says the local real estate board president: “This market is uncharted territory for Fraser Valley real estate, It’s typical for spring to see a jump in activity; however, March came and went at a break-neck, record-setting pace. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

North Van is up 24%, Richmond prices are ahead 26% (to almost a million, on average), Coquitlam has gained 18% and even Surrey is 15% more expensive. In the GTA, far-flung York Region and Orangeville prices have jumped 15%, while Durham’s 14% increase is slightly more than that of Halton. What was once reasonably contained to the Kingdom of 416 and the Delusional Duchy of Downtown Van has now seeped into the countryside in a way local observers are calling “drastic.”

It goes without saying that family income levels in these two regions have not suddenly mushroomed. Job creation has been anemic. And debt service burdens have been rising, not falling. Meanwhile blaming all the foreign dudes with their suitcases stuffed with cash isn’t all that credible an excuse. In a TV interview yesterday GTA developer Paul Golini – a guy who builds condos and houses – said the whole offshore-buyer thing is getting old. “We really think that there isn’t a problem here,” he said. “We think the numbers don’t justify the fact that we’re on this witch hunt.”

More evidence of that comes from a new CHMC report estimating that about one in 10 new condos in the downtown core (built in the past five years) is owned by foreigners, with the overall ownership rate standing at 4%. Of the new-build estimate, Golini says: “It seems a little bit high, you know we met just recently with some other industry folks and everyone reported a number that was closer to 5%.”

Peter, a blog dog in Vancouver (and a Millennial – he admits it) says this all makes him wonder about the veracity of what he hears from friends and realtors. “Even if there are 10% foreign owners in Toronto condos doesn’t that mean there are 90% domestic owners? (Ha) Wouldn’t that just prove your point that this speculative price surge was done by self rather than others? Perhaps the foreign money was some gasoline on the fire but it doesn’t reflect the other 90% of buys…”

By the way, CMHC also found 6.6% of condos built in Van in the last six years are foreign-owned, while 4.4% of older units are similarly held. In Calgary, foreign owners hold 0.1% of older units and 1.6% of newer ones. In Montreal the foreign ownership level is 1.6% while it’s 2.3% in Victoria.

Well, draw your own conclusions. But asset bubbles are always characterized by local euphoria, greed and wilful blindness. I’d say we’re there.

189 comments ↓

#1 Owe Canada on 04.08.16 at 6:16 pm

“That the world has turned its economy into a gigantic Ponzi scheme is surely beyond doubt. There seems no other way to describe a system that, as well as being massively indebted, can only function by adding yet more debt. The big problem isn’t so much the debt mountain itself as the inability to function without an uninterrupted diet of new credit.”

“In the proverbial nutshell, then, the world has become addicted to borrowing money, spending it, and passing this off as “growth”. This is a copybook example of a pyramid scheme, which in turn means that the world’s most influential economic mentor is neither Keynes nor Hayek, but Charles Ponzi.”

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2016/01/11/65-the-ponzi-economy-part-1/

Canadian annual gdp is approximately $2 trillion at the present time.

The Canadian economy grew 1.2% in 2015 – ie: the size of our economy grew by approximately $24 billion in 2015.

In the year 2015 the total government (all levels), business and household debt in Canada increased by $614 billion. (In the last 8-1/2 years it has increased by $2.90 trillion.)

Looking at just the debt of the non financial sectors of our economy, it increased by $320 billion in 2015. (In the last 8-1/2 years it has increased by $2.06 trillion.)

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick-choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=3780122

#2 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 04.08.16 at 6:20 pm

We need to get that foreign ownership up. Send T2 on a worldwide tour to sell RE ASAP.

My concern is what happens to Canada’s economy if the US rolls over. FED NOW has GDP growing at 0.1%. Three quarters of negative earnings never has happened outside of recession.

The facts are disturbing.

#3 too much debt on 04.08.16 at 6:22 pm

Just an anecdote from the craziness that is Vancouver. My coworker (in Vancouver) just renewed his mortgage at the Green Bank and was chatting with the mortgage broker. Broker told him he has been crazy busy, he just had a women come in from Mainland China and took out 7 mortgages for the 7 condo units that she bought, all in the same building near Metrotown. My coworker asked how this was possible, as most foreign investors pay cash, the banker replied no, as long as they put 35% down and prove that they have enough money in the bank to cover one year of property taxes and strata fees Canadian banks will give them a mortgage. Don’t worry though no HAM driving the Vancouver market.

#4 Frank on 04.08.16 at 6:23 pm

Don’t have to go that far for crazy. I like a stones throw from downtown Vancouver in moldy condo central. A 26 year old townhouse just sold. 2 bed, 1100 sq ft. Unit next door sold 2 years ago for $699. Today? 23 offers, final price $1.1M

#5 MoneyDriven on 04.08.16 at 6:25 pm

I still don’t understand why we look for foreign investment by asking property manager instead of simply tracking down the money. I really doubt anyone with 5M in a suitcase walks in and buy a house. It always goes through bank. Who cares if buyer is from China or Africa. Money goes through bank. With a simple policy change, you can monitor the transaction through banks and you can change the policy accordingly.

Two side note:
– Hate living in Vancouver and counting the days till I can move.
– Sad and true, if the market does not crash and crash hard. everyone who waited on the sideline with smart balance portfolio is big time loser. Even Garth worse case scenario wont push the prices back to early 2015.

Thanks for you blog Garth

#6 TheSpangler on 04.08.16 at 6:26 pm

Have a great weekend Garth and thanks for the many hours of daily enjoyment!

Housing is insane in BC, higher house prices with lower incomes compared to the GTA.

Live simply y’all!

#7 pathcontrolmonk on 04.08.16 at 6:26 pm

Garth, somewhat off topic but did you see Sherry Cooper’s new makeover? Is it me, or does she not look like she has been sinocized?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YS-h-Ou48gg

#8 Kevin in Wpg on 04.08.16 at 6:26 pm

The Winnipeg Real Estate board has zero morals! How is this legal?

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/07/winnipeg-real-estate-market-doing-well

BS…an overall decrease of 8.18% year over year is not doing well. No wonder WREB did not publish a dollar value!

http://members.shaw.ca/shomimore/wpg_march_real_estate.jpg

#9 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.08.16 at 6:28 pm

THE HUGE RATE DROP IN 09 SHOULD HAVE SENT HOUSE PRICES SKYROCKETING IN ALL CANADIAN CITIES

It did, except, of course, in Victoria where house prices are currently only 6% higher than in 2008, based on Teranet’s index.

Basically there is no greater source of housing market stimulus than dropping rates from near-normal to emergency levels, which was done in 2009.

That house prices in Victoria are only 6% higher than in 2008, despite all of the strong stimulus that’s been in effect since then, means that locals are tapped out and that household finances and the local economy are too weak to produce higher prices (even with abnormally low rates).

How much lower would prices in Victoria be today if rates had remained at near normal levels since 2008? 30%? 40%?

Note that a temporary uptick in construction activity is no long term fix for a weak economy. Neither is a temporary uptick in residential real estate sales due to amateur speculation and emergency rates.

THE UPDATED BIG PICTURE

. . . . . . . . . . . House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . .
. .Percent Above/Below June 2008 Price Level.
. . . . . . . x = Winnipeg, * = Victoria . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+35%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x . . .
+30% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+25%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+20% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+15%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
….0%. . . x*. . . . . . *. . . . . . .*. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
————————————————————————–
. . . . . . June. . . . .June. . . . .Aug . . Feb. . .
. . . . . . 2008. . . . 2011. . . . 2014. . 2016. . .

(source: Teranet’s index)

Since 2008 house prices in Winnipeg have increased by 32.7%, based on Teranet’s index.

PRICES COULD BEGIN FALLING AGAIN IN VICTORIA AS EARLY AS THE END OF THIS MONTH

We’ve seen rising markets suddenly turn into falling markets in Victoria recently in 2008 and 2010.

That this happened was, of course, a shock to many locals who had bought into the “prices can only go higher” hype of local real estate “professionals”.

Don’t make the same mistake that so many Victoria families made in 2010 by buying near the peak.

Buying when prices are too high and then having to sell after prices have fallen significantly severely damages your financial situation as so many Victoria families have found out the hard way.

RECENT HYPE: RICH BUYERS FROM CHINA…

This is being presented as a threat to locals – you had better buy now or be priced out forever.

Just what percent of real estate sales in Victoria went to buyers from Asia?

0.68% (see chart)

It’s fear-mongering, false and dangerous.

TWO IMPORTANT THINGS TO REMEMBER ABOUT HOUSING MARKETS:

1. Market conditions (supply/demand) can change quickly. A seller’s market can turn into a buyer’s market within months.

2. The direction of house prices from the past month can’t be used to predict the direction of prices in the next month.

THE FUTRE WILL BRING MUCH LOWER PRICES

This time rates will not be dropped from near-normal to emergency levels to stop house prices from falling in Canadian cities, as was the case in 2009.

What’s worse is that Canadian 5-year mortgage rates will begin moving higher soon and will be a significant source of downward pressure on prices as Victoria’s upcoming major price decline is in progress.

Victoria’s price bottom will be much lower than any Canadian economist would predict.

#10 A Canadian Abroad on 04.08.16 at 6:30 pm

Great! Can we now do a Capital Gains Tax on any profits realized by selling a primary home?

#11 Steve on 04.08.16 at 6:30 pm

I’m so confused….

#12 S.Bby on 04.08.16 at 6:37 pm

The underlying problem is suppressed interest rates by the central banks. We really do need higher interest rates. The economic distortions are getting too large. If they don’t raise rates soon we will end up with a bigger problem than can be imagined.

#13 Doug t on 04.08.16 at 6:41 pm

Sittin here cool as a cucumber – when this pops there will be a lot of people SHOCKED because they believed it would never decline. History repeats itself.

#14 tundra pete on 04.08.16 at 6:44 pm

Seriously. Langley. Wow. Isn’t Langley just as crime ridden as Surrey only a little further away? Bacon brothers turf a few years back, now just punk gangbangers. Hopefully the doors have locks and the new owners don’t have any kids. Is there a Hell’s Angels clubhouse there, is that why the price is so high?

Soon it will be like the Hangover movie when they all wake up in shock of their actions. When people borrowed $500.000.00 for a house I thought they had a problem. Now when they borrow 1.2 million I think the bank will have a problem.

#15 james on 04.08.16 at 6:44 pm

Came into the office late today due to allergies. As soon as I walked in, two of my team members said ‘aha’, and then presented this to me:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2016/0407/Vancouver-house-costs-How-do-you-solve-a-problem-you-can-t-measure

Vancouver’s housing runup is raising eyebrows here, even as Seattle is up heavily YoY. And no, it is not viewed as a good thing down here. Neither the local increases nor Vancouver’s insanity.

#16 For those about to flop... on 04.08.16 at 6:47 pm

I was working in the Dunbar area this week….Bitter much? that was me that put that layer of dust on your coffee table ,you race baiting bastard…

Payback’s a bitch…

M41BC

#17 Form Man on 04.08.16 at 6:48 pm

Bidding wars in Kelowna these days

#18 Tax Minimizer on 04.08.16 at 6:48 pm

The wife and I are wage slaves earning yearly salaries. Besides the usual TFSA, and RRSP, what other options are available to us to minimize taxes?

#19 rainclouds on 04.08.16 at 6:54 pm

This is the land of the VSE, taking an “all in” flyer on a hot tip is hardwired into the genetic code of the west coasters.

Lots of eediots still clamouring for a chance to get quick rich on the latest Ponzi scheme.

Not. Done. Yet.

#20 Overdose on 04.08.16 at 6:57 pm

House price up 25% in one year… And it is not only Vancouver. Look at many major cities in the US and in the world… same story.

House prices at this level and climbing are a simple consequence of bad monetary policy (0% Interest rate). Government Loves the boom and ignore the danger of the inevitable bust…

And then when this house of cards comes crumbling down they will all be on tv telling us that no one could have possibly see it coming and that we will need to bail them out again.

After all. it’s not like we saw the consequence of what a housing bubble can unleash in the recent history.

This is beyond incompetence from policy maker and we will all suffer from this.

#21 Smartalox on 04.08.16 at 6:57 pm

A thundering economy, a fantastic jobs report, and the price of oil bouncing off bottom.

Can a hike in interest rates be far behind?

#22 Smartalox on 04.08.16 at 6:59 pm

Every one in a while, you read a warning sign, and wonder “What happened last time that THIS is considered necessary?”

#23 IKnow on 04.08.16 at 6:59 pm

If just one person in the world says he will long Microsoft for at least 10 years, but that one person happens to be Warren Buffet (or his estate). Then what will happen to Microsoft stocks at least in near term?

The HAM 5% is far more potent than some people here like to play down.

#24 common sense on 04.08.16 at 7:04 pm

I still have to ask…what will pop this bubble?

As the days go by I am less and less convinced interest rates will be raised. It would just cause so much trouble worldwide and with “tiny” world growth forecasts, how would we ever rebound again to take care of the problems?

There is just no way Yellen will raise rates. Her successor maybe…No one wants to be responsible for ending the party. No one.

#25 family beagle on 04.08.16 at 7:05 pm

Yes, local BC players will play leapfrog all the way to Sparwood on price support, if you let them…and as long as leveraged assets are returning more than productivity. Many don’t want to change locales so they won’t sell here in Tri-Cities. Curious about retail numbers. Are people spending? I wonder how many have dipped into equity. Yep, people have mighty inflated ideas about value around here. Good thing food doesn’t track housing.

#26 seeingifrombothsides on 04.08.16 at 7:06 pm

@#3

I have a personal friend that did the same. Sold 2 properties in red hot Shenzhen market ad bought 4 here.
Bank only need 35% down and she’s able to leverage 4 mortgages.

#27 DR. WAYNE on 04.08.16 at 7:07 pm

Talk about greed … a house in Vancouver just went for, GET THIS …$1,000,000.00 OVER ASKING. Some shady pricing here? DUH …

#28 Madcat on 04.08.16 at 7:10 pm

“Meanwhile blaming all the foreign dudes with their suitcases stuffed with cash isn’t all that credible an excuse. In a TV interview yesterday GTA developer Paul Golini – a guy who builds condos and houses – said the whole offshore-buyer thing is getting old. “We really think that there isn’t a problem here,” he said. “We think the numbers don’t justify the fact that we’re on this witch hunt.”

We need actual numbers. This Paul guy could just be saying this because the negative sentiment towards foreign ownership is growing… Realtors will say whatever garbage they think they need to in order to benefit their cause…. Selling Houses.

The bottom line is the real estate market needs to be cooled. The government needs to do something to cool it. Whether that be ending foreign ownership or raising the requirements to purchase a property then so be it.

Personally, I would like to see higher down payments required. Their last attempt to adjust the rules has clearly had no effect at all. It’s ime to raise the minimum down payment to 20% down across the board.

#29 Chaddywack on 04.08.16 at 7:13 pm

Oh gee I’m priced out of Surrey now.

What a loss…

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.08.16 at 7:14 pm

Sooo all you interest rate hike nay sayers.

Poo poo-ing Garths predictions of last Fall regarding US interest rate hikes…..

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKCN0X42UV&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjnnpeplYDMAhVHt4MKHX1dDuYQqQIIFjAA&sig2=C-Xh6XBI2sMabaLM2-wEIg&usg=AFQjCNGIS96cGsGO8RhJR0uOlenazyealw

What say thee?

#31 Lea on 04.08.16 at 7:15 pm

#3 too much debt

How is that possible? We (Americans in Van) had to have secured credit cards because our SIN numbers started with 9. I can’t imagine they would pony up a mortgage without permanent residence. There has to be more to the story…or the banks must be crazy :)

#32 DR. WAYNE on 04.08.16 at 7:17 pm

OOPS … Garth beat me to it …

#33 totalchaos on 04.08.16 at 7:17 pm

I know you predict a long slow melt rather than a crash and that real estate is local. Tear-downs are going for 1.2 – 1.3 million in New Westminster (not as far out as Langley, but still… ), add in building costs and it almost makes your heart stop. In this hood, priced could have a sudden drop of 50% and still need that long slow melt to normalize. We sold a rental a couple of years ago and I have no regrets. Selling an investment property now would feel like a game of chicken.

#34 It’s only Trump and coal and I like it…. on 04.08.16 at 7:20 pm

“Now that the US Fed realizes it can no longer act unilaterally, it means the US is now a guarantor of EM (emerging markets). We have a Yellen “put” under EM. How long this lasts is anyone’s guess but if Janet Yellen were to turn and hike rates any time before the end of the year, she would have a serious credibility problem.”

OtterWood Capital

makes sense to me, now jawboning the markets so as to be kept range-bound seems imperative along with
playing down various data points…

as to housing I’ve stocked up on popcorn, ready for the eventual fireworks….

#35 preet89 on 04.08.16 at 7:23 pm

I know that area well. It is a very up and coming area. Many friends live in Walnut Grove and Willoughby Heights. There is no more land being made so people are paying what they can afford to get into the market.

$5,000 profit (or more) every WEEK on real estate in our area. NO investments can match that!

Imagine making that much profit week in and week out for years!! Taylor Swift has a great song about this – Haters Gonna Hate.

People that miss out seem to be the ones complaining the most.

#36 Bonhomme Carnaval on 04.08.16 at 7:27 pm

Hey, blog dogs,

Quick analysis: Maple vs. Yankee

Populations:

– Toronto (2,600,000) ===> Chicago, IL
– Montreal (1,600,000) ===> Philadelphia, PA
– Calgary (1,000,000) ===> Dallas, TX
– Ottawa (900,000) ===> San Jose, CA
– Edmonton (800,000) ===> Austin, TX

Avg. price per sq. ft. :

– Chicago, IL ($ 178/sq. ft.)
– Philadelphia, PA ($ 127/sq. ft.)
– Dallas, TX ($ 180/sq. ft.)
– San Jose, CA ($514 /sq. ft.)
– Austin, TX ($178 /sq. ft.)

No bubble in Canada, eh?

Food for thought…

Have a great weekend!

#37 common sense on 04.08.16 at 7:29 pm

#27 Crowded..

Actions speak louder than words….

#38 Harbour on 04.08.16 at 7:29 pm

Absolute MANIA that doesn’t end

The Bit Coin died, Gold died, Tulips died… but Canadians and their Real Estate just won’t die

#39 Paul on 04.08.16 at 7:31 pm

#10
No taxes on your home ever!!

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.08.16 at 7:44 pm

@#35Preet
Let me guess. Your “other” job is a Realtor.
Your first love is writing fiction…..

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.08.16 at 7:46 pm

@#27 Common Cents

I’m ‘locked and loaded” if you’re willing to ride the elevator……….

#42 Balmuto on 04.08.16 at 7:46 pm

#5 Money Driven

“I still don’t understand why we look for foreign investment by asking property manager instead of simply tracking down the money. I really doubt anyone with 5M in a suitcase walks in and buy a house. It always goes through bank. Who cares if buyer is from China or Africa. Money goes through bank. With a simple policy change, you can monitor the transaction through banks and you can change the policy accordingly.”

Very good point. When I sold my condo in 2012 it was to a young guy with a Chinese name that owned and ran a small business in Toronto. This was according to my realtor; I never spoke to the guy. I have no idea whether he would have been considered a “foreigner” – for all I know he could have been born and raised here. However, I do know that the closing date had to be pushed forward because he wired the money from a Chinese bank to a Canadian bank, and the Canadian bank put a one-month hold on the funds. Now there’s an example of where the buyer is probably not “foreign”, but the source of funds is. Since he was a young guy I’m guessing the money came from the bank of Mom & Dad in China. I doubt this kind of transaction would show up under foreign investment, but if we’re trying to gauge the extent that foreign capital is influencing the local market, I think it probably should. Not because I think it’s a bad thing that we have foreign investment in our real estate markets; I think it’s actually a very good thing. But it’s useful as a potential investor to know to what extent you have outside money in the market, as it can sometimes bring a lot of volatility with it. It doesn’t even have to be from another country – just look at the boom and bust cycles in Florida real estate that were driven in large part by investors from other states, particularly the north-east. Ultimately the outside investors were a boon to the local economy but in the short term they did help to create real estate bubbles that had quite a damaging effect when they burst, particularly the one in 1925.

Now I don’t think Toronto is anything like Florida 1925 – but Vancouver I think is getting there!

#43 Harold on 04.08.16 at 7:50 pm

It’s time the federal government taxed capital gains on principal residences the same way they do other property. This will raise huge sums of money and hopefully put a damper on the speculation.

#44 Rent Victoria on 04.08.16 at 7:50 pm

Garth interesting you haven’t nail it on the great bubble you keep writing about. Years ago you did mention it was going to happen in 2015. Now we are 2016 , you have alter your course of action in saying it will become a slow melt down. You don’t need to look very far to see how the average misfits Canadians have voted in a PM with nothing more than a drama degree. You can count on seeing more herds following stupid to stupidity in the house horny by Canadians and not foreigners.

#45 the Hammer on 04.08.16 at 7:57 pm

preet89

Who’s Taylor Swift?

#46 35% down on 04.08.16 at 7:57 pm

Banks are offering 65% LTV Ninja mortgages in yvr, so my guess is thAt they expect a 35% drop.
We have 2 scenarios: 1 everythinh is nice and Yellen rises rates 1% in a year and 2nd recession is coming and no jobs. I am talking about USA here, where still have some bubbly cities pike San Fran, LA, New York but still have decent housing in similar small cities.
Let’s hope usa is a ok and from the spillover of jobs reported today in Canada it seemz to be the case. Yesterday Fed anounced a urgent FOMC meeting next week which had happened only before the dec 2015 hike.
I hope mr. Turner iz right and we get at least 2 hikes this year. That will put the nail in YVR where everybody smokes pot and mortgages. When the houses will stop to raise people and especially foreign speculators will pull the money so fast that Christy Clark will lose her bathsuite in a second and neither one of these views will be pretty

#47 Rob on 04.08.16 at 8:00 pm

@crowd

Interesting….the Atlanta Fed GDP Now just lowered their estimate for 2016 1st quarter GDP to .1%. The US economy is on fire!! Mother Yellen will have to raise rates in June because the economy is so strong….puleese.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1

#48 Cake and Eat It Too on 04.08.16 at 8:03 pm

Always remember the following comparison so that posters realize that you cannot suck and blow at the same time – a small percentage of buyers and sellers move the market!

It took only 8% distressed owners in the US to lead to a 32% price decline across the US.

If 8% can cause that much damage, the 5% of foreign buyers can cause an near equal amount of damage with price increases.

History has shown us that 5% can be deadly in either direction, so no point discounting its impact.

#49 Ken on 04.08.16 at 8:05 pm

You nailed it again Garth, As I drive around in my old 1993 bought and paid old Ford Ranger with eyes glaring at the old rusted wagon I can’t help but wonder who truly has the last laugh, The guy with the old truck and savings or the guy driving around in his 3500 Diesel Truck in tow with his 30 foot Bank owned 5th wheel along with their manicured wife and poodle as they pull into their $750,000 manufactured box house with the garden lawn and garden experts outside being paid with their 1 of 10 19.9 % credit cards. As I calculate each one of those payments its quit easy to conclude who is truly the Greater Fool.

#50 Silver on 04.08.16 at 8:08 pm

but just think of the property tax windfall.
all those public employees that could be hired so they can buy new house too… and keep the bubble going…

Silver

#51 Scumop on 04.08.16 at 8:12 pm

Had one of those realizations…

If indeed houses and condos are just assets in the way stocks or a freezer full of beef are, we can use the same analysis stock traders use on that asset called real estate. Sure, some differences, but much is driven by irrational or mistaken human behavior, its a fair fit.

The rapid price rise in Vancouver, with the rise going almost vertical, has an exact parallel in the stock market. Its called…

Exhaustion Gap: A rapid, even extreme price rise with high volume indicating an imminent price collapse. Exhaustion gaps look a lot like runaway gaps, only with much heavier volume. Compare increasingly large
lineups of people wanting to buy already overpriced properties chasing up the price, with re agents pumping it with their own version of the hot stock tip.

Nice chart pic here:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/exhaustiongap.asp

#52 S.Bby on 04.08.16 at 8:13 pm

#35 Preet89
I know that area well. It is a very up and coming area. Many friends live in Walnut Grove and Willoughby Heights.

“up and coming area”. LOL! Good one! What else ya got?

#53 Chris on 04.08.16 at 8:19 pm

Vancouver is just like San Francisco, less the jobs, I guess. Crazy stuff.

#54 sockeye sam on 04.08.16 at 8:27 pm

#35 preet 89

I know if we could get our twenty acres removed from the A.L.R over there on 216th I’d start development on it.We did quite well on the land home depot sits on in Langley.

#55 common sense on 04.08.16 at 8:28 pm

#41 Crowded..

Locked and loaded on a rate hike, USA style?

How many? When? This year?

#56 bdy sktn on 04.08.16 at 8:30 pm

Needed the air conditioning in the car today.
#604sux

#57 Mel on 04.08.16 at 8:40 pm

43 Harold on 04.08.16 at 7:50 pm

Are you serious, you don’t pay enough tax now?
Maybe you can volunteer your gains for taxes, leave mine alone.

#58 Yuus bin Haad on 04.08.16 at 8:42 pm

OK. Google Maps shows three Chinese restaurants in Orangeville. Let’s check again in a week or two.

#59 Graeme on 04.08.16 at 8:44 pm

Victoria real estate update,

Seriously? Prices are only up 6% in Victoria since 2009…and your conclusion is to warn people not to buy at the peak?

Half the population of Van wants to pull up stakes, cash in and buy elsewhere. They are just beginning to move out. Where do you think they will move to? Oh yeah…perhaps somewhere in Arizona? You have done lots of price comparisons. Only problem is– they can’t. They don’t have permanent resident status, they don’t like potential water crises, bad govt and gun crime

So ummm.. Think you’re super duper wrong on this one. Many people in Vancouver’s first choice will be Victoria.

#60 TurnerNation on 04.08.16 at 8:45 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz have you considered expansion of your trade into revolving doors and escalators?

(The following user name is still available: Take the Stairs)

There will be no Fed hike until after the election. Van and TO housing markets might slow down in Q1 2017. Until then, the banks are the invisible hand.

#61 Ret on 04.08.16 at 8:47 pm

If the people in China don’t want to invest in businesses and industries in China, why would I invest in their country? How can China move forward when so much of their wealth is leaving their country? The lack of transparency alone should scare off any foreign investment.
————————————————————-

#10 Great! Can we now do a Capital Gains Tax on any profits realized by selling a primary home?

Sure, no problemo! That is, as long as the interest on the mortgage to earn those capital gains is tax deductible!

If my principal residence is a business, then business tax deductions for interest expenses are only fair.

#62 sockeye sam on 04.08.16 at 8:57 pm

Hong Kong blames Main Land China for creating a housing bubble. Who woulda thunk?
Hey, don’t blame me I’m only the messenger.

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Hong-kong/Price-History-Archive/Hong-Kong-housing-bubble-Mainland-buyers-blamed-1059

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.08.16 at 9:06 pm

@#55 Common Scents
One this year. Before the election. A mizerly 0.25% to keep the markets from hyperventilating.

@#60 TurnerNation
Revolving doors is an interesting concept. I could just stand outside and watch the horror. Thanks.
Escalators….not so much.

1Q 2017? Get serious….
These Van/GVRD price increases….. at this pace…. is screaming implosion. Sept.- Oct. This year.

I’d like to change my name to “Hellavator” but the PNE already has dibs………

#64 waiting on the westcoast on 04.08.16 at 9:18 pm

March system-wide numbers from our various locations in Can/US/AUS…

Overall system growth YoY for March: 25% (AUS was 21% / Canada was 13%) so obviously the US is carrying the number.

Montreal and Quebec City are -30%
GTA and Ottawa are +40%
Sask/Man are -15%
Calgary/Edmonton are flat
Van and Fraser Valley are +25%

My 4 Ops in the US
3 East Coast are +25%
1 West Coast is +30%

Weird month… AB and praries still hurting. QB is getting pummeled but GTA/Van are watching HGN TV and spending money…

The US is powering forward. Maybe not with manufacturing but definitely on the services side.

#65 waiting on the westcoast on 04.08.16 at 9:22 pm

#62 sockeye sam on 04.08.16 at 8:57 pm says… Hong Kong blames Main Land China for creating a housing bubble. Who woulda thunk?
Hey, don’t blame me I’m only the messenger.
¨
_______________________________

They are whining when HK nationals are still the largest segment making the market. Note – the HK market is losing steam fast…

You better sell soon if you want to monetize in Vancouver. When 95% of the market decides it wants to get out… then the 5 or even 10% if you think its that high) will not be able to slow the tide heading out

#66 TCContrarian on 04.08.16 at 9:32 pm

***Just SOLD***

Proud to say that I assisted in selling a relative’s property in YVR-land. Was appraised about 12 months ago at $1.2M. Today we closed on >$1.8M !!

Now, does anyone know of a good financial firm which guarantees 7% annualized?? :-)

#67 Arb Watson on 04.08.16 at 9:33 pm

Time to give out a copy of this book with every real estate purchase.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds

#68 Brian Ripley on 04.08.16 at 9:47 pm

“…a gain of 42,000 jobs in March…: Garth

Jan and Feb were negative so the first quarter clocked in at 33,000 new job growth. (CBC news)

I updated my Net Trade chart which has been negative 23 out of the last 30 Quarters since 4Q 2008: http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

…which comports with the job growth in that jobs being mostly created are in the service sector and import side of the trade balance. The low CAD relative to USD has not yet been able in 8 years to keep net trade consistently above the flat line where it was prior to the 2008 crash.

We are being fueled by easy credit and subsidized by tax payer insurance.

#69 GTA Girl on 04.08.16 at 9:47 pm

I agree with the foreign stats…however, then why did Golini’s company open an office in Dubai to court foreign investors? All that money, first class travel for the partners, slick office and it didn’t net them one oil soaked Sheik?

Most developers don’t need Foreign investors when you can leverage condo projects off the backs of local investor pyramids? Mortgage brokers are the new sexy.

Don’t be fooled by the Bruno Cocinelli suit and the soccer hair, that BNN dude has his McMansion for sale for $9mill. The most expensive house in northern TO. And is hoping a Chinese businessman offers him the full amount, dazzled by the slickness

#70 Marlene from Victoria on 04.08.16 at 9:59 pm

“This is despite the far-better economic news we’ve had lately – the muscular economic growth in January, and a gain of 42,000 jobs in March along with a rebound in oil (up 6% on Friday). That’s welcome for a country that was in recession a year ago, forced to slash interest rates twice in order to avoid a worse outcome as crude shed more than 70% of its value.”

You nailed it, Garth.

Thank God for Justin. He and his team have already made a remarkable difference in this country, for the better for all of us. Thank you, Liberals, for showing once again, just like in the 1990s, what real economic leadership looks like.

Thankfully, we can only now imagine how destitute Canada would be, with a total leadership vacuum, if those despicable, lying, degenerate, spineless neo-con backbenchers and their lipstick and mascara-wearing fuhrer were still in power.

The future is indeed much sunnier than the past :)

Comedy, right? — Garth

#71 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.08.16 at 10:02 pm

# 59 Graeme

As I’ve said gains in incomes and rents remain far below gains in house prices since the Canadian bubble began to be inflated in 2000.

Victoria’s housing bubble was comparable to some of the biggest bubbles in the US by 2006 and has been maintained by emergency rates and lax lending standards since then. It hasn’t gone away.

Your claims are ridiculous. Of course you’ve provided. I proof for any of them.

Do you have any facts, links, data… anything to support your argument?

Please post it if you do otherwise you’ll look like just another real estate “professional” trying to pump houses.

#72 Sheane Wallace on 04.08.16 at 10:17 pm

DELETED

#73 sockeye sam on 04.08.16 at 10:18 pm

#65 waiting on the west coast.

I don’t need to sell. I could take a 75% drop and it wouldn’t affect me. It’s going to the kids anyway so no big deal. My biggest complaints are.

1 HOUSES SITTING VACANT WHEN THEY COULD BE PUT TO GOOD USE HOUSING SOME ONE OR A FAMILY OR TWO IF IT HAS A SUITE

2 BEAUTIFUL OLD CHARACTER HOMES IN GOOD SHAPE BEING TORN DOWN.

#74 Afraid to Sell on 04.08.16 at 10:22 pm

I’m in North Van. My little 1950 house has hit the $2 million mark. Is there any financial product available that allows me to hedge that price. I really don’t want to sell but I believe $1 million of those paper gains will disappear in the next 2 years…

They will. So why not sell? — Garth

#75 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.08.16 at 10:24 pm

Correction to my last post: … by 2008, not 2006.

#76 Slow Canada on 04.08.16 at 10:54 pm

We are there, Garth, we are there. And it is getting a bit tiresome to be there, I’d say. Too bad nobody in power has the cajones to pop the festering boil.

#77 Brazil ex-pat on 04.08.16 at 10:58 pm

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.08.16 at 7:14 pm
Sooo all you interest rate hike nay sayers.

Poo poo-ing Garths predictions of last Fall regarding US interest rate hikes…..

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKCN0X42UV&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjnnpeplYDMAhVHt4MKHX1dDuYQqQIIFjAA&sig2=C-Xh6XBI2sMabaLM2-wEIg&usg=AFQjCNGIS96cGsGO8RhJR0uOlenazyealw

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Yee say there has been – one – lonely rate hike in nearly ten years.

whoopee…….

The Fed has just started. Expect a slow tightening over the next few years. — Garth

#78 Brazil ex-pat on 04.08.16 at 11:10 pm

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Yee say there has been – one – lonely rate hike in nearly ten years.

whoopee…….

The Fed has just started. Expect a slow tightening over the next few years. — Garth

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I believe you. Too bad everyone of reading age (my 4 year old reads) will be dead by the time 5% Fed Funds rate is reached….

#79 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.08.16 at 11:12 pm

@Tax Minimizer (I’m no longer numbering posts as they CHANGE, and I’m OFFENDED at EVERYTHING, like Big Dipper)

Well, I’ve heard that there’s a certain Panamanian law firm that just might be able to help you out.

A shell company here, a shell company there never hurt anyone….

#80 Brazil ex-pat on 04.08.16 at 11:16 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/republican-contested-convention-brokered-donald-trump-1.3524209

If Trump and Cruz ore “forced out” undemocratically by the elite expect major fireworks in “Murica”.

#81 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.08.16 at 11:17 pm

@ Afraid to Sell-

Are you in a position to leave the YVR area and relocate somewhere else? Then I suggest you do so. Two million is a nice retirement fund.

#82 New Canadian on 04.08.16 at 11:34 pm

Re #3 too much debt
————————-
Confirming this point, when we first asked about mortgage 2 years ago without ANY Canadian income nor credit history, putting 35% down and having some money in the bank was all it took to get a letter of approval for quite a stratospheric total house value. At a certain global bank, catering mainly to clients of Asian heritage here in Canada, it was as low as 20%, as long as you had a little more money deposited with them. No proof of income required whatsoever. Already then I was thinking crazy, absolutely crazy, but my wrong intuition was that it is a sign of the peak of the bubble already then. I would had never imagined the exponential growth of RE values in hot markets which has materialized since then. I entered the professional world just when the dot.com bubble inflated and busted, this seems like a good mid-career repeat of that experience… Meanwhile no bubble in our mid-sized Ontario city; houses sit on for couple of weeks and the good ones sell around the asking price with maybe a small bidding war for the really great ones priced well, and the not so great ones often need to be lowered a little to find a buyer. Simply balanced and one could say rational as well.

#83 Candide Genner on 04.08.16 at 11:38 pm

Trudeau blasted by international media for being a dumb ass. I read articles from Canada to Brazil this morn all proposing the same question…”How could Canadians be so stupid?”

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/lawrence-solomon-justin-trudeau-could-face-his-worst-nightmare-in-ted-cruz

Sorry if Liberals find international opinion offensive, but this is what is going to drive foreign investment into the country…and a vote of no confidence by the international community is no good for Canada.

#84 Darry on 04.08.16 at 11:43 pm

Anyone with half a brain who has walked around downtown Vancouver knows it is far more than 10 percent of condos that are foreign owned. Ever hear of numbered companies??

#85 Big Dipper on 04.09.16 at 12:12 am

#70 Marlene from Victoria on 04.08.16 at 9:59 pm

“You nailed it, Garth.

Thank God for Justin. He and his team have already made a remarkable difference in this country, for the better for all of us. Thank you, Liberals, for showing once again, just like in the 1990s, what real economic leadership looks like.

Thankfully, we can only now imagine how destitute Canada would be, with a total leadership vacuum, if those despicable, lying, degenerate, spineless neo-con backbenchers and their lipstick and mascara-wearing fuhrer were still in power.

The future is indeed much sunnier than the past :)”

Comedy, right? — Garth

—————————————-

What is it about Marlene’s astute observations that are untrue? Can’t handle the truth?

This has been the Progressive Pay-off, the Liberal Levitation, The Trudeau Turnaround. The Justin Joy.

Also known as the Con Collapse.

#86 For those about to flop... on 04.09.16 at 12:19 am

Good to see that Mark Farquar finally started his own company…

M41BC

http://www.trollbeads.com/canada/en-ca/products/beads?gclid=CM7K6LzYgMwCFQeRfgodh4gLgw#!/Simple/-/-/-/-/-/-AvailabilityDate

#87 waiting on the westcoast on 04.09.16 at 12:34 am

#73 Sockeye Sam says… “1 HOUSES SITTING VACANT WHEN THEY COULD BE PUT TO GOOD USE HOUSING SOME ONE OR A FAMILY OR TWO IF IT HAS A SUITE. 2 BEAUTIFUL OLD CHARACTER HOMES IN GOOD SHAPE BEING TORN DOWN.”

Not sure I understand why you care? Not your property…

Why don’t you worry about your land deal subdivision in Langley. It seems you think it’s OK to change the rural nature of Langley for your profit but begrudge those that renovate or build new in your hood….

#88 fishman on 04.09.16 at 1:31 am

Everybody showed early at the coffee clutch today. Guys are starting to drift back with the nice weather. The King,Bob Rennie, always shows early & we were hoping for a blessing. He & Kerry are going to India so he’s all happy & talky about that. No tips-er-blessing.

So you bloggie doggies will have to get the warm scoop from us mere mortal mutts. Firstly, consensus that the frenzy right now, spring/016 is equal to fall/79. Same kindling, in 78-79 a surge of liquidity emanating from Pacific Rim after U.S. had deficit financed their Viet Nam War. In 016 U.S. deficit financing for Wal Mart crap over the years ending up again in Van R/E. By spring/80 Volcker had slammed the door with 18% money, catching assorted appendages in the process. We don’t believe fiscal or monetary policy like last time will be used. But who knows? Maybe T2 will grow a pair. Like he’s got lots of room.

I know your read up on this Panama thing & getting money offshore. In this town thats old news. Singapore is the go to place & has been for the last three years. Second. the money here isn’t leaving, its coming. The real estate lawyers & accountants that been in this biz for a good while make their money bringing money in. This includes old white guys bringing their dough back too. Never underestimate the power of Medicare.

So you can dampen the flame by restricting the foreign fund inflow into this city & province.However if you haven’t got the cajones to pull out relatively simple fiscal & monetary policy how the hell are you going to implement mercantilist liquidity restrictions?

That leaves letting it burn itself out. Thats a pretty proactive policy. We’ll be proactive too. Starting by taking a lawyer & a Cadillac to Vancouver Island this weekend. Looks like deals galore. One oldy on a 40 ft. lot here for 8-10 in Nanaimo & parts north. All that yummy farm land,gravel pits,woodlots,motels.gas stations apartments,waterfront, fishing licenses & quotas, oh & I almost forgot, quality residential R/E. And for the ROC figuring the flames from the big smoke won’t get to their little towns & provinces, maybe, but there is an incredible amount of liquidity out here, bursting with hunger to devour whatever. The longer we wait for it to burn itself out the more the damage, the farther the destruction. Maybe even irreparable damage that changes everything.

#89 Fed-up on 04.09.16 at 1:46 am

#74 Afraid to Sell on 04.08.16 at 10:22 pm

I’m in North Van. My little 1950 house has hit the $2 million mark. Is there any financial product available that allows me to hedge that price. I really don’t want to sell but I believe $1 million of those paper gains will disappear in the next 2 years…

They will. So why not sell? — Garth
——————————————————————————-

Maybe they will and maybe not.

What I mean is one could literally change the dates and the dollar amounts in today’s post and comments section, then transplant it all back to 2010. Same song, same predictions but different year with the exception of explosive price gains since then.

One day, just maybe we’ll be right. I gave up on sticking my neck out about a correction a while ago. Lord only knows what the prices will look like by the time it actually happens. Probably still too high for many hold outs to buy even with a 70% collapse. A stagnant market with a slow, grinding multi-year melt scenario will make most parts of YVR and the GTA affordable right about when most posters on this blog will be far more concerned about deals on adult diapers and their sense of direction.

So I propose a toast! Here’s to renting in cities that were very affordable a mere 8-10 years ago, I’m OK with that. If I choose to continue to live and work in the city in which I was born, educated and raised without going broke and working until I’m 78, I have no choice but to be OK with it.

Harsh, but possibly true. How about them Leafs!

#90 juno on 04.09.16 at 2:03 am

I hope the bubble rises another 25%

We know who buying. Its speculators already owning a house leveraging on their existing house/s.

When the $hits the fan, the dominal effect will crush his chain of houses.

Greed and more greed.

Just like the dot.com, housing bubble of the 80’s us housing bubble, the Asian contagent, bre-x, Bernie madolf. Once your in the middle of the Ponzi schema. There is no way out until the bubble burst.

#91 Lobster Man on 04.09.16 at 2:05 am

You no longer have to go to Surrey to experience violent crimes etc.

Last (Thursday) night, we had an attempted home invasion in the Oakridge area, at Cambie and West 45th Avenue. The bad guy got away.

Tonight, I could see a lot of porch lights in the area houses were on. And people were very nervous.

This is in the Vancouver west side, where 33-foot lots are priced at 2 million plus.

#92 Freedom First on 04.09.16 at 3:21 am

The “Rule of 90”, liquidity, diversification, balance, and re-balancing are very simple and fail proof Financial Principles that will work throughout anyone’s lifetime. These principles are as old as the hills. Failure to follow them, has, throughout history, and will continue, to destroy many individuals and families.

I remember an oldtimer, who, many years ago, told me if I lived every area of my life by sound and time proven Principles, my life would be very very good. He also told me that he never knew anybody to dumb to understand this, but he’s seen many many people who were to smart to get it. But then he said, he thought that I should be okay.

#93 jane 24 on 04.09.16 at 4:13 am

I still think that my strategy is right, I am using this era of cheap interest rates to eliminate debt rather than take more on. We are newly retired and sleep very well at night.

I don’t understand how buyers get mortgages either as the amount you can borrow is based on the value of a property so why aren’t the banks valuing property lower rather than just accepting the selling price?

#94 Frankenhammer on 04.09.16 at 5:30 am

DELETED

#95 Vancouver Update on 04.09.16 at 6:26 am

DELETED

#96 Makarand Pradhan on 04.09.16 at 6:53 am

Looking into my crystal ball, I predict that this summer will be the warmest for the Real Estate Market in GTA. The realtors will be having a ball.
Next year I see a sea of red with Garth shouting “I TOLD YOU SO”

#97 jess on 04.09.16 at 7:08 am

The US bank was accused of improperly certifying government-backed home mortgage loans between 2001-2010.
The US Justice Department sued the bank in 2012, after paying out insurance when the loans went bust.
Years of reckless underwriting, while relying on government insurance to deal with the damage

Driven to maximize profits, Wells Fargo employed shoddy underwriting practices to drive up loan volume, at the expense of loan quality. Even though Wells Fargo identified through internal quality assurance reviews thousands of problematic loans, the bank decided not to report them to HUD. As a result, while Wells Fargo enjoyed huge profits from its FHA loan business, the government was left holding the bag when the bad loans went bust.

Department of Justice
Office of Public Affairs
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Friday, April 8, 2016
Wells Fargo Bank Agrees to Pay $1.2 Billion for Improper Mortgage Lending Practices
largest recovery for loan origination violations in FHA’s history

#98 Bank of Millennial on 04.09.16 at 7:21 am

I am interested to see how the foreign buyer situation unfolds when things slow down. I anticipate that what was once virtuous for price appreciation will, on the other end of this cycle feed greater fear as uncommitted capital takes flight. At least we live in interesting times.

#99 salonist on 04.09.16 at 9:15 am

Population projections
2005 to 2031

Statistics Canada
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/051215/dq051215b-eng.htm

#100 Ray Skunk on 04.09.16 at 10:08 am

G&M dropping another stinkbomb on the Vancouver RE market and the chances of Clark’s reelection this morning. Interesting reading.

Garth – can you do those of us who read this blog for its intended topic a solid and start deleting all these bullshit posts assassinating Mark’s character? I’m neither here nor there on the guy, but all this clutter is childish and just plain pointless.

People getting upset and spending valuable time digging up dirt over some complete stranger on the Internet. These individuals need to take a serious look at what they’re doing with their lives and get a grip.

#101 For those about to flop... on 04.09.16 at 10:14 am

#85 Big Dipper on 04.09.16 at 12:12 am
#70 Marlene from Victoria on 04.08.16 at 9:59 pm

“You nailed it, Garth.

Thank God for Justin. He and his team have already made a remarkable difference in this country, for the better for all of us. Thank you, Liberals, for showing once again, just like in the 1990s, what real economic leadership looks like.

Thankfully, we can only now imagine how destitute Canada would be, with a total leadership vacuum, if those despicable, lying, degenerate, spineless neo-con backbenchers and their lipstick and mascara-wearing fuhrer were still in power.

The future is indeed much sunnier than the past :)”

Comedy, right? — Garth

—————————————-

What is it about Marlene’s astute observations that are untrue? Can’t handle the truth?

This has been the Progressive Pay-off, the Liberal Levitation, The Trudeau Turnaround. The Justin Joy.

Also known as the Con Collapse.

///////////////////////////////////

You forgot the Metrosexual Messiah Mistake…

M41BC

#102 H on 04.09.16 at 10:25 am

All this and nobody is noticing the emergency Fed meeting Monday. 11:30

Liquidity issue anyone?

#103 Ace Goodheart on 04.09.16 at 10:41 am

Still lots of upside left in the Toronto market from what I can see. No idea why people are getting into “bidding wars” in such far flung places as Barrie and Orillia.

Have noticed an odd change in the Toronto market. Used to be that crap shack old houses were getting bought up first in bidding wars, for renos. Now it is more the renovated houses that are selling fast, with the crappy run down ones staying on the market longer. I watch these things. No idea why. Too much time on my hands I guess.

No idea what is going on in Vancouver. Not even going to take a guess.

#104 Sheane Wallace on 04.09.16 at 10:46 am

This is what is coming to Canadian banks in the future:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-09/wells-fargo-admits-deceiving-us-government-pays-record-12-billion-settlement

#105 S.Bby on 04.09.16 at 10:58 am

#87 waiting on the westcoast

Something is fishy with sockeye sam and it’s not just the name. He is a bus driver and now he divulges he is a Langley land baron as well as a Dunbar millionaire property owner? Maybe he also owns the Port Mann bridge?

Fishyman has coffee regularly with Bob Rennie? Hoo boy that’s a good one!

Bdy Skytrn is also a land baron with multiple paid for properties all within a hour of Vancouver?

LOL this is getting comical. A bunch anonymous posters come here to validate their fragile egos.

#106 AfterTheHouseSold on 04.09.16 at 11:25 am

#100 Ray Skunk
“… start deleting all these bullshit posts assassinating Mark’s character?”

Agree with you Ray.

#107 crossbordershopper on 04.09.16 at 11:29 am

its april 5th and millions of low income canadians got their GST cheque rebate. not people talking about their million dollar homes.
get real everyone. rich foreigners making it difficult for locals to afford to live in the city they were born and raised.
its something no one ever cares about, take your lousy 68 dollar gst cheque and go home the politicians say

#108 down and out on 04.09.16 at 11:34 am

Lessons learned on this blog. Fact is money is ‘magnetically ‘ attracted to Van and the GTA because of the big on paper returns to be had when selling creating this huge bubble which will just keep inflating until like a’ magnet ‘an equal outside of the housing business force of bigger or easier returns lures the cash away .Now I hope like many on this blog it is a combination of little outside lures or adjustments that slowly deflate the lofty returns back to equilibrium not one big single event like government interference for example to scare or lure the money away causing a crash leaving many casualties who never experienced an economic cycle .The first sign of trouble for home prices is when the Fed raises rates another few points and the money markets does not react in an negative way but embrace the hike meaning the economy has shifted polarity and money is now attracted to a new place for returns .Woe to the people who have all their wealth in a unsaleable single depreciating asset .You may be satisfied with your nest egg tied to home but money is like a restless mistress is ready to leave you for a better deal quickly if it appears on the horizon. Thanks for the education Garth .

#109 sockeye sam on 04.09.16 at 11:45 am

#105 South Bby.

The bus driving gig is a hobbie. I enjoy working with people and the world’s more disadvantaged.I also give a lot away.You appear either jealous or envious? I’m also working on a proposal to the city of Vancouver to see if we can some how get families in need occupancy in the homes that sit vacant in Vancouver.

#110 JamesA on 04.09.16 at 11:49 am

Was sitting in a coffee shop at King and Spadina trying to write code. Had to flee due to being surrounded by two groups discussing real estate and condos. So tiresome. For what a small sample is worth, they weren’t new recruits to our fine land, they all had thick toronto valley girl accents.

Now I must flee timmy snortons due to screaming children.

#111 BCCF on 04.09.16 at 12:25 pm

Are we seriously quoting condo developers as reputable sources on the level of foreign investment? What do you think they would say – “Oh yeah, there’s a ton of foreign investment driving up prices. All you domestic buyers should just wait until China tightens up the ship on money leaving the country, these guys are nuts and will always be able to pay way more than Canadians.” No, because he has a vested interest in maintaining the story that both foreign and domestic buyers are correctly valuing the product he is building.

#112 BeeBop on 04.09.16 at 12:30 pm

I agree.

Leave Mark alone. This is not a bully blog. Or is it?

#113 Metaxa on 04.09.16 at 12:39 pm

#106 AfterTheHouseSold

#100 Ray Skunk
“… start deleting all these bullshit posts assassinating Mark’s character?”

Agree with you Ray.

Me too.

On the Internet no one knows you are a dog.

#114 TurnerNation on 04.09.16 at 12:46 pm

YYR slow down maybe Q1 2017 – stretching due to long pre-approvals and closing dates.

Toronto realty madness will abate once ‘Gartho’ finally gets together with Smoking man for that beer at South Side Johnny’s.

The new McDonald’s McCafe in FCP has touch screen ordering, taking jobs. (30 years ago this post would be over new ATM machines over bank teller jobs.)

Everyone has a degree. Ask around, the gals promoting free samples at local store have uni degrees (meaningless).

#115 Timmy Tax Time on 04.09.16 at 12:48 pm

Just got my T3 for XRE in the mail. There’s a few dollars listed for box 34, Foreign non-business income.

I’m confused, because all the dividends are in CAD and this is listed on the TSX. Why would I have foreign non-business income from this ETF? When I’m doing my taxes, the form is now asking me to identify the country source of foreign income and there’s no indication on Blackrock. :S

#116 jess on 04.09.16 at 1:20 pm

102 H on 04.09.16 at 10:25 am

The meeting might be in regard to :Government Development Bank ?
Puerto Rico faces $70 billion in total debt, a 45 percent poverty rate and a shrinking population.

#117 jess on 04.09.16 at 1:28 pm

114 TurnerNation on 04.09.16 at 12:46 pm

you might enjoy
“Listen Liberal”

Author Thomas Frank Talks Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and His New Book, ‘Listen Liberal’

He says Democrats are paying too much attention to Ivy Leaguers and not enough to the working class.

By Kathy Kiely | March 22, 2016

#118 Brazil ex-pat on 04.09.16 at 2:06 pm

#116 jess on 04.09.16 at 1:20 pm
102 H on 04.09.16 at 10:25 am

The meeting might be in regard to :Government Development Bank ?
Puerto Rico faces $70 billion in total debt, a 45 percent poverty rate and a shrinking population.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

This is what happens when you have massive govt spending on govt projects employing only…..govt. Canada? USA? Europe?

#119 H on 04.09.16 at 2:22 pm

102 H on 04.09.16 at 10:25 am

The meeting might be in regard to :Government Development Bank ?
Puerto Rico faces $70 billion in total debt, a 45 percent poverty rate and a shrinking population.

___________

Or

Could be the 5 revisions to the US GDP heading south from 2 percent to 0%
The appreciation of the Japanese Yuan by 20% in 6 weeks, the drop in the USX in last 6 weeks
The lifting of short selling of Chinese stocks which was implemented in Jan.
The earning recession which will take center stage in the next week.

And of course the letter to shareholders from JPM outlining possible Liquidity issues forming forcing the Fed to open up the discount window.

Whatever it is, this is a special meeting that came out of nowhere TWO WEEKS prior to the SCHEDULED meeting on rates.

Watch the currencies. They are telling the story now.

#120 Bokononist on 04.09.16 at 2:30 pm

So the Canadian housing market is a lot like Spam®.

At it’s highest around 5% HAM, and the rest, local flavour and filler.

#121 fishman on 04.09.16 at 2:31 pm

Your partially right S.Bby. A guy like Rennie never has the time to “have coffee” with us “old women”. But if your a neighbour for 20 years & you get up real,real early & know where he stops for his morning java you could get a quick blessing. You must know his habits ,he’s a Burnaby boy. Almost the end of the eighties till he was making more than the old slav fishermen he started selling R/E to. Serious bagman for our mayor & premier when they were way behind in the polls, marketing swami for the big developers.If you want to catch fish ,hang around the boats that are highliners:if you want to make money in Van R/E, pay attention to the successful. P.S. I’m still holding west side Van commercial& residential.

#122 Timmy Tax Time on 04.09.16 at 2:34 pm

nvm, think I figured it out. XRE holds some USD cash and there must be an interest-based distribution.

#123 WUL on 04.09.16 at 2:36 pm

A few blogs ago, Garth told us to “… now go do something constructive.”

I have taken his advice to heart and by suppertime tomorrow will have watched 32 hours of the Masters golf shindig on TV.

I am reminded that many years ago, the Potato Growers of Alberta owned the web domain name “PGA” and the Professional Golfers of America had to buy it from the spud farmers. Reported at various sources to have cost the country clubbers between $25K and $100K.

True story.

#124 G&M Bombshell on 04.09.16 at 2:36 pm

DELETED

#125 BOOM! on 04.09.16 at 2:44 pm

Real Estate prices suddenly skidding in hot market! San Francisco condo prices down last qtr….. could this be a sign of a liquidity tightener?

Hmmm. Looking at renewing debt lines, lenders are strengthening demands, does this mean somebody is going to force payback, or liquidations?

We can only hope so! Is Yellin going to advocate for another BIG .25% goose up in the Fed rate?

Will Superman finally decide between Lois Lane and the green kryptonite?

Stay Tuned…

#126 IHCTD9 on 04.09.16 at 2:51 pm

When you think about it, Vancouver’s fate is sealed at this point. YVR is going to have a very different future from here on in, no matter what happens to the housing market – and it is probably going to be a bad one.

Look at the possibilities:

1. HAM theory proven correct, housing keeps going up and stabilizes way above what any local can afford. A decade passes with no correction, most Canadians have sold out, become millionaires, and moved out of town. Youth see no point in staying as the shock of the rapid rise of RE fades into the new normal, and the hope for lower prices finally dies – they leave YVR behind, and move to where they might actually be able to own someday. The city now has the highest level of vacant housing in the world, resembling a Chinese ghost city; as foreign RE investors flip housing and condos back and forth among themselves. Tax policy shifts to extract the majority of revenue from RE ownership and transactions as industry slows in tandem with the exodus of youth. The provincial economy becomes less diverse every year – and smaller. RE is officially way too big to fail. Vancouver is now completely dependent on the perpetual forward movement of RE to fund government. If it ever stops, YVR will be another Detroit within a year.

2. Greed and specuvestors drive prices beyond all reason, local buyers have long thrown in the towel, the MSM highlight the wholesale gluttony as new listings hit the MLS at a million more than they did just one year prior. Sentiment starts to sour as disgust becomes the dominant attitude towards the runaway prices. The only fundamental metric that can explain the situation now is ravenous greed. Bidding wars start to shrink, then disappear altogether. At last, a shadow of fear starts to slowly creep over those who have put it all on the line, maxed out on leverage to own multiple investment properties. Banks start to understand what is happening, word gets back to mainland China and other foreign RE holders. Then, one day, listings start rising, prices no longer increase, everyone notices. A year later, everyone wants out – but no one wants in – prices crash and those who bet big lose everything. IHCTD9 swoops in and buys it all becoming richer than Trump 20 years later on the rebound :).

No matter who is right regarding the stupid house prices, things have gotten so far out of hand, I can’t see a good outcome for Vancouver regardless of which way it goes.

#127 triplenet on 04.09.16 at 3:09 pm

#36 Bonhomme Carnaval

Perhaps you and VREU should team up and form a real estate consulting company.
Your data is priceless.

#128 Nemesis on 04.09.16 at 3:19 pm

“Asset bubbles are always characterized by local euphoria, greed and wilful blindness.” – HonGT

#Well,2OutOf3Ain’tSoBad-Or… #TheStrange&MysteriousTaleOf… #EvilDoctorWu![cue:SpookyReverb]…

[G&M] – Tricks of the trade: Inside a B.C. real estate firm that has home sellers crying foul…

“You must consider your own interests.” – Mr. Wu

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/inside-a-fast-growing-bc-firm-that-has-home-sellers-crying-foul/article29578417/

#BonusWu,Or… #SometimesLifeImitatesArt…

https://youtu.be/cZ2WDoKdRRw

#129 S.Bby on 04.09.16 at 3:46 pm

Hey fishy guys:
Yes and I am busy having tea with the queen of England.

#130 Unbalanced on 04.09.16 at 3:53 pm

It seems and appears to me that suck eye Sam is always jealous and envious. Anybody else see it

#131 YVR on 04.09.16 at 4:02 pm

http://thetyee.ca/News/2016/04/09/Wanted-Foreign-Ownership-Data/

Go here to read about the issue. Comments from well educated people. You will find the truth there.

#132 David Lee on 04.09.16 at 4:08 pm

http://www.recbc.ca/2016/04/council-establishes-licence-conditions-for-new-coast-realty/

#133 Big Dipper on 04.09.16 at 4:28 pm

#101 For those about to flop… on 04.09.16 at 10:14 am

#85 Big Dipper on 04.09.16 at 12:12 am
#70 Marlene from Victoria on 04.08.16 at 9:59 pm

Thankfully, we can only now imagine how destitute Canada would be, with a total leadership vacuum, if those despicable, lying, degenerate, spineless neo-con backbenchers and their lipstick and mascara-wearing fuhrer were still in power.

The future is indeed much sunnier than the past :)”

Comedy, right? — Garth

—————————————-

What is it about Marlene’s astute observations that are untrue? Can’t handle the truth?

This has been the Progressive Pay-off, the Liberal Levitation, The Trudeau Turnaround. The Justin Joy.

Also known as the Con Collapse.

///////////////////////////////////

You forgot the Metrosexual Messiah Mistake…

————————————————

Do you doubt the inerrant statements from the Garth Man himself? Are you some sort of a &[email protected] Atheist? Clearly, He has identified the progress resulting from the Trudeau Liberals when he wrote:

“..the far-better economic news we’ve had lately – the muscular economic growth in January, and a gain of 42,000 jobs in March along with a rebound in oil (up 6% on Friday). That’s welcome for a country that was in recession a year ago, forced to slash interest rates twice in order to avoid a worse outcome as crude shed more than 70% of its value.”

Maybe Justin is Garth’s Messiah….

#134 Brazil ex-pat on 04.09.16 at 4:53 pm

From a Huffington Post comment:

Barron McConnachie · Sales Associate at Coldwell Banker Premier Realty Vancouver

A former CMHC executive friend of mine told me when he was at CMHC they were not allowed to discuss the impact of Mainland Chinese money on our real estate market. It was verboten. I recently looked at buying in Vancouver House, a new project in Vancouver and literally more than 3/4’s of the building was being marketed in Hong Kong , Beijing, Singapore and New York. Another 60 story building “One Burrard” sold out in three days with half going to investors. So our real estate markets have become casinos for the wealthy and cash cows for governments and the local be damned! If Trudeau is serious about income inequality he better start looking at forbidding such large portions of our markets to be literally sold to foreigners. After all, whom do they represent?

#135 Elizabeth on 04.09.16 at 4:56 pm

Infrequent poster and long time reader!

Fabulous article from the Walrus…

http://thewalrus.ca/the-highest-bidder/

I can remember 11 years ago when Vancouver houses were 450,000 at the top of the market with long lines around the corner. I thought it was ludicrous then and it’s so far beyond the top that one cannot see and end!

Congrats Vancouver, soon you’ll be like New York and Martha’s Vineyard….exclusive to only the rich with no children playing outside, local businesses closing, and no human life in the houses. Bravo.

#136 Shankar on 04.09.16 at 6:35 pm

I am an architectural drafter and there is not too much work in alberta right now. They say that there is in Vancouver right now, but should I go. Would it be stupid to go. Could I survive living there a year or would it drain my savings ?

Can I get by with speaking english ?

#137 Mark on 04.09.16 at 6:40 pm

” Another 60 story building “One Burrard” sold out in three days with half going to investors. So our real estate markets have become casinos for the wealthy and cash cows for governments and the local be damned! If Trudeau is serious about income inequality he better start looking at forbidding such large portions of our markets to be literally sold to foreigners. After all, whom do they represent?”

Most of those investors Canadians. Are you really suggesting that Canadians should be forbidden to speculate? Should the government have stepped up in the late 1990s and told people they weren’t allowed to buy Nortel? Bre-X? Think about it for a moment, the sort of facist state you’re implying a desire for, when you call for government to restrict the ability of speculators to speculate.

As has been pointed out in many independent studies, foreign participation in Canada’s RE marketplace is minimal and definitely not enough to influence prices.

#138 For those about to flop... on 04.09.16 at 6:40 pm

#132 Big Dipper on 04.09.16 at 4:28 pm
#101 For those about to flop… on 04.09.16 at 10:14 am

#85 Big Dipper on 04.09.16 at 12:12 am
#70 Marlene from Victoria on 04.08.16 at 9:59 pm

Thankfully, we can only now imagine how destitute Canada would be, with a total leadership vacuum, if those despicable, lying, degenerate, spineless neo-con backbenchers and their lipstick and mascara-wearing fuhrer were still in power.

The future is indeed much sunnier than the past :)”

Comedy, right? — Garth

—————————————-

What is it about Marlene’s astute observations that are untrue? Can’t handle the truth?

This has been the Progressive Pay-off, the Liberal Levitation, The Trudeau Turnaround. The Justin Joy.

Also known as the Con Collapse.

///////////////////////////////////

You forgot the Metrosexual Messiah Mistake…

————————————————

Do you doubt the inerrant statements from the Garth Man himself? Are you some sort of a &[email protected] Atheist? Clearly, He has identified the progress resulting from the Trudeau Liberals when he wrote:

“..the far-better economic news we’ve had lately – the muscular economic growth in January, and a gain of 42,000 jobs in March along with a rebound in oil (up 6% on Friday). That’s welcome for a country that was in recession a year ago, forced to slash interest rates twice in order to avoid a worse outcome as crude shed more than 70% of its value.”

Maybe Justin is Garth’s Messiah….

/////////////////////////////////

Yeah I am some sort of Atheist,but I co exist with my wife who is Hindu.

I am hoping that someone of your lofty stature will pray for me tonight and forgive me for thinking for myself…

M41BC

#139 Enzcav on 04.09.16 at 6:47 pm

Thoughtful observations of the Canadian RE debacle;
– I agree this is completely home grown Bubble and we will all be wondering wtf were we thinking when prices drop on average 50-60%
– all bubbles end with a speculative frenzy where price discovery is blurred and large spikes in prices occur, we are in the middle of that hurricane right now
– folks that buying in 2016 will look very foolish
– expect prices to begin colossal drop this summer
– buy Christmas TSX will drop 30%, reflecting housing crisis senecio in 2017 & 2018
– be smart and you can profit by short selling Home capital, genworth, first national mortgage and others
– these companies are operating on razor thin actual capital any reversal in house prices would put them at zero equity essentially worthless companies
– the big 6 banks will suffer too

Good luck, the end is nearer than we all think, Garth will make us heroes soon!

All reasonable thoughts, except for the TSX drop. There is scant correlation between residential house prices and the overall market. Bay Street is not Wall Street. — Garth

#140 For those about to flop... on 04.09.16 at 6:56 pm

I was just driving down Knight st.and this sign made me smile.

It is a beater for 1m and where the realtors name goes it says ” The Chanceys”.

Whats the Chanceys that someone is going to get ripped off…

M41BC

http://www.thechanceyteam.com/ActiveListings.php/Details/704/6604-knight-street-vancouver-east-bc#viewdetail

#141 Bram on 04.09.16 at 7:04 pm

I think it’s time that people blame Vancouver city government, instead of the Chinese immigrants.

A withering vine stops laneway house project.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/laneway-home-vancouver-expense-affordable-housing-delay-planning-1.3527971

For fun, see how much of that $1.8M per house is actually permits, and bureaucrat delay costs.
Ugh.

City of Vancouver is running a freaking racket with their Arborists and other protected trades.

Bram

#142 Porsche on 04.09.16 at 7:22 pm

#136 Shankar on 04.09.16 at 6:35 pm

I’m in the same boat in telecom. I think one has to bite the bullet and relocate before applying because if you don’t your not a local and turn into a bottom pick.

#143 gut check on 04.09.16 at 7:24 pm

Shout out to my fellow artist & sometime muse Smoking Man!
Are you in outer space?
Earth to Smokey… Earth to Smokey


Come in, Smoking Man
I’m worried about you, brother!

#144 AfterTheHouseSold on 04.09.16 at 7:40 pm

#100 Ray Skunk
Is this the G&M ‘stink bomb’ article referred to earlier? If not, please post a link as I would like to read. Thanks.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/donor-lists-reveal-bc-liberals-greed-for-power/article29535533/

#145 Neither Wolf Nor Dog on 04.09.16 at 8:22 pm

Everybody who thinks himself/herself important enough to craft even a single sentence in a discussion about real estate should read first Kent Nerburn’s outstanding book, Neither Wolf Nor Dog.

Chapter Three of the white man talking to an Indian elder, about the land of “America”.

Are you familiar with this work Garth?
Anyone else here?

If not – do yourself a favor, please.

Much of the discussion about Vancouver gets the relevant and chilling context from an old Lakota man.
Intellectual honesty makes this a required reading.

#146 Just another day in YVR on 04.09.16 at 8:42 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/inside-a-fast-growing-bc-firm-that-has-home-sellers-crying-foul/article29578417/?service=mobile

#147 gladiator on 04.09.16 at 8:44 pm

Well, dear Garth and blog dogs, I have some updates to share with ya.
The general idea is that we are all losers: the RE madness we’re witnessing has a looooong way to go and it’s all up-up-up!
I had a conversation today with a commercial real estate broker from the GTA who is in the business for over 25 years. He knows first-hand what’s going on and he told me today that if I don’t buy now, I will be losing serious dough every single day for the foreseeable future, as long as rates stay at the current level. We were talking about GTA. Also, he does absolutely no residential RE, so he had nominterest in rushing me to buy.
He said that GTA is simply under siege from Chinese and Iranian buyers and due to low supply, they are spilling over into the suburbs. An example is Aurora, where in the last 2 years there were so many Chinese buyers, that some Asian grocers expressed interest in buying space to expand their businesses, as they see growing customer base in there. Now, I did not ask when exactlynthat happened, but maybe some of our blog dogs from Aurora could keep us posten on such developments there?
Well, all in all, I feel like a loser now and since I cannot afford to buy in the TTC-accessible area, I feel like an ass for not buying even a crappy bungalow. I AM priced-out now and from what the competent professional told me today, I am out of luck for years to come. The probability that rates will go up is nil (let’s be frank about it).
The only positive thing I see is that I will keep my family’s lifestyle as is, because by my calculations if we buy now, then we will forego vacations, kids’ activities, various memberships to nice places, delicacies, booze, budget for miscellaneous things we want, etc.
I will give up many things, but booze… No way!

#148 fishman on 04.09.16 at 9:06 pm

Funny S.Bby. you should mention tea with the Queen of England. Just catching up with my childhood friend after his two weeks in England. They stayed with his wife’s father, a little Saskatchewan Metis of 95,widower who remarried an Englishwomen & moved there 10 years ago. He’s a veteran of Dieppe. When he goes across the channel the French love him. The English treat him fine too. There you go, the French treat him royally & the English invite him to Buckingham Palace & tea with the Queen. Thats it, thats as high as a Canadian soldier’s ever going to get. Won’t be long till the great Canadian battles like Dieppe, Monte Casino, North Atlantic & yes, tea with the Queen if you made it through the killing zone, will pass with the last veteran into ephemeral history.

#149 Sheane Wallace on 04.09.16 at 9:29 pm

#1 Owe Canada

The important part is that they WANT all the wealth to be created as debt, this way they can call it back at any time and foreclosure on all debtors, effectively becoming the owners of everything.

Of course it is a scam.

But they can’t fake gold or control gold.

#150 Linda on 04.09.16 at 9:31 pm

Euphoria, greed and wilful blindness are also the recipe that has created an unabashed, corrupt 1%.

“..the vast majority of people suffer from a painful culture of austerity so these freeloaders can get richer.”
http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2016/04/09/panama-papers-make-case-for-a-1-solution-burman.html

The Occupy Movement was merely a precursor to what is about to happen.

The Panama Papers release tsunami is only just beginning.

#151 Freeman on 04.09.16 at 9:41 pm

I hear that new retail workers in Vancouver are demanding pay of $50 per hour, otherwise they cannot afford to pay for the housing costs of Vancouver.

$50 per hour !!!! Wow.

#152 TnT on 04.09.16 at 9:43 pm

Foreign ownership has exponentially tipped the scales for Vancouver and Toronto.

#153 Washed Up Lawyer on 04.09.16 at 9:57 pm

Hon. Double Bogey, M.P., P.C.:

Real estate prices in Toronto are fully justified.

A city rich in culture and entertainment (Eatons Centre), music (Beverly Breckenridge), architecture (Casa Loma) and pro sports (Marlies and Argos).

Vancouver (2/36ths of the Canadian population) is irrelevant. Quit talking about it.

Vancouver used to be a lovely place until they built that city there.

Signed,

The Red Deer Bar Association

#154 For those about to flop... on 04.09.16 at 10:09 pm

Hey WULLY,time for our Saturday night free for all post.

The Masters is wiiiidddeeee open,Jordan should win but Jason could post a number and playing 17 and 18 in the shade is tough.

Well, we fell in the back door but my Flyers made the playoffs…Global has been bemoaning the lack of Canadian teams in the playoffs but the flip side of that is lots of American cities have Hockey ,Baseball,Soccer and Basketball going on.

Baseball bemuses me …everyone wants to go to opening day and then disappears for six months and then gets interested when the playoffs start…

M41BC

#155 sockeye sam on 04.09.16 at 10:22 pm

#149 Sheane Wallace

That is exactly what their plan is. Don’t fall into their trap.

Like Daddy Bush said, “A brave new world, a new world order”.

#156 Smoking Man on 04.09.16 at 10:24 pm

Gutchuck

Been in hospital since Friday. First over night ever. I’ll enclave I q few days he’s

Funny true story that almost killed mz

#157 Barb on 04.09.16 at 10:41 pm

As long as all the nouveau riche move to the North Okanagan and help our economy by spending, spending, spending. Perfect!

#158 WUL on 04.09.16 at 11:15 pm

#154 For those about to flop… on 04.09.16 at 10:09 pm

“Baseball bemuses me …everyone wants to go to opening day and then disappears for six months and then gets interested when the playoffs start…”
???????????????????????

Last night’s collapse by the Mudville Nine from a 7-2 lead to an 8-7 loss was one for the ages. Oh well, the next 157 games should tell the tale.

I hope that tomorrow on the back nine, The ghost ofThe Shark shows up and brings it home.

While our host lets me get away with my usual inanities, let me share my favourite Masters’ story.

Years ago, a group of ladies (lead by an American feminist whose name I forget) were protesting outside Augusta National at the entry to Magnolia Lane. The thorny point that made them protest was the lack of a single female member of the venerable golf club.

Across the street was a male counter protest. One male protester held a placard that read:

“Iron My Shirt”.

FLOP, Pal o’ Mine. I am happy with our Saturday discussions and will continue to respond until Garth “Cranky” Turner responds DELETED (STFU).

#159 shark on 04.09.16 at 11:33 pm

Im watching a documentary about the panama papers right now. Mr Turner, I can do this if I want, its still a free country that we live in.

#160 Exurban on 04.10.16 at 12:01 am

#91 Lobster Man

Home invasion perv caught:

High-risk sex offender arrested after being identified as suspect in attempted home invasion

The next wave in the Lower Mainland will be higher security IMO. High-security condos and gated communities in places like Point Grey — IOW the future Vancouver predicted by Bruce Allen.

#161 Harbinger on 04.10.16 at 12:21 am

#151

I hear that new retail workers in Vancouver are demanding pay of $50 per hour, otherwise they cannot afford to pay for the housing costs of Vancouver.

$50 per hour !!!! Wow.”

I’m sure this would work if we’re all prepared to spend a thousand dollars at the grocery store, pay $100 for a t-shirt at H&M, $50 dollars for a professionally styled coffee by a ‘professional barista’ and fork out $50 to ride the bus.

“You didn’t do that ” said Obama. Socialism is grand. Look at Cuba, a real success story. I think $50 an hour is too low. And while we’re at it, confiscate the excess capital in Vancouver’s investment real estate market and give all the vacant houses and condo’s to city workers who need to be closer to their jobs….dammit!!

And……..free bikes for everyone….oh yeah….we just spent millions on that bonehead idea.

#162 Lilibet on 04.10.16 at 12:29 am

#129 S.Bby on 04.09.16 at 3:46 pm
Hey fishy guys:
Yes and I am busy having tea with the queen of England.

*********************************
Say wot? You’re not down in my book!

#163 hopeful but ruinous on 04.10.16 at 12:32 am

an hour’s drive (on a good day, at the right time, in an A7) from downtown Vancouver. (The same distance as from the core

lol

@ Mark: I listened to the Ross Kay interview. I want those 30 minutes of my life back.

#164 LP on 04.10.16 at 12:37 am

#154 For those about to flop… on 04.09.16 at 10:09 pm

Baseball bemuses me …everyone wants to go to opening day and then disappears for six months and then gets interested when the playoffs start…

M41BC
*********************
Not me…I watched every cable televised game last year; didn’t miss a one. And so far I’ve seen the first 6, excrutiating though it may be.

F68ON

#165 Freedom First on 04.10.16 at 4:00 am

#156 Smoking Man

Get well soon Smoke. Fan #33. Peace out.

#166 Smoking Man on 04.10.16 at 7:29 am

Alive fascinating story how I got sick while trying to I’m prove.

#167 Carly in Cabbagetown on 04.10.16 at 8:07 am

WUL said:

“Years ago, a group of ladies (lead by an American feminist whose name I forget) were protesting outside Augusta National at the entry to Magnolia Lane. The thorny point that made them protest was the lack of a single female member of the venerable golf club.

Across the street was a male counter protest. One male protester held a placard that read:

“Iron My Shirt”. ”

—————————–

Gee, WUL, your thoughtful comment reminds me of a story. Let me share.

Years ago, a group of blacks were protesting in Alabama for equal rights and an end to discrimination and slavery.

Across the street, a group of whites held a counter protest, with placards saying “Do my laundry” and “Go back to picking cotton”, you ‘so-and-so’s’ (I’m sure you can fill in the blank, WUL).

So funny, huh!

It’s so great that we can celebrate misogyny here and congratulate ourselves for it :)

#168 Julia on 04.10.16 at 8:30 am

#147 Gladiator
“An example is Aurora, where in the last 2 years there were so many Chinese buyers, that some Asian grocers expressed interest in buying space to expand their businesses, as they see growing customer base in there.”

One of my employees of Chinese decent just bought in Aurora in the last few months after selling their Richmond Hill property, where they had lived for over 25 years. Profited greatly from that sale. Wanted a bigger house to accommodate aging parents, who have also been in Canada for over 25 years.
They know others who did the same.

#169 Julia on 04.10.16 at 8:38 am

*descent

#170 AfterTheHouseSold on 04.10.16 at 8:49 am

An interesting read.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/managing-wealth/how-the-wealthy-can-beat-ottawas-new-rules-by-becoming-low-income-to-save-big-on-their-taxes

#171 Tony on 04.10.16 at 8:50 am

Re: #9 Victoria Real Estate Update on 04.08.16 at 6:28 pm

Edmonton real estate is about ten percent lower (and falling fast) than way back in May of 2007. Condos, apartments and townhouses are almost fifty percent lower than the May 2007 peak.

#172 Blow Jays Crushed, Leafs are Toast, Toronto and Canada Sucks! on 04.10.16 at 8:57 am

So the Blow Jays are now LAST in the AL East.

The Leafs are LAST in the NHL and Toronto moisters are CELEBRATING! “We’ll get a good draft pick, it’s different here” they say. LOLOLOLOLOLOL!

Not a single Canadian team had the competence to make the NHL playoffs where all you really need is just a pulse and not too many concussions.

Toronto sucks. Canada sucks.

You are third rate derivatives and your real estate market is just a pathetic, unreflective copy of what happened in the U.S.A. and Ireland.

You are SO unoriginal, Canadians!!

Enjoy paying your Rogers bill to watch Blow Jays and Leafs lose again on your cell phone in the trailer park in the years ahead, after you lose your houses this year!

#173 H on 04.10.16 at 10:10 am

Clear as day. You will note the comment on over invoicing for goods at the end of the video. Method to move money out of China. No, you wont find this on data reported at CMHC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzaACZFBjZw&nohtml5=False

Obsessed. — Garth

#174 For those about to flop... on 04.10.16 at 10:45 am

Hey Carly,long time no troll…
Yes Augusta Golf club was a boys club for too long but the girls are allowed to play now as of 2012.
Condeleezza Rice is amongst them but it can be difficult to get membership at certain golf clubs even for guys.

I have a feeling you are not a sports person as you would realize it is a play on words.
Besides being handy to get a crease out of your shirt an”iron” is also an object that you strike a golf ball with ,preferably as few times as possible.

Anyway I hope you understand WULLY’s comment a little better and I will talk to you latter ,but I have to go as I want my wife to iron the inside of my underpants….preferably whilst I am not wearing them…

M41BC

#175 For those about to flop... on 04.10.16 at 10:53 am

Just to let people know how exclusive Augusta G.C is here is a list of some of its members.

Take a look,you will know some of the names for sure and it is easy to see why they don’t want riff raff like me rubbing shoulders with them…

M41BC

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-augusta-national-golf-club-members/

#176 mishuko on 04.10.16 at 11:00 am

and the best part is CHMC said it’s an estimate and not to read further into it.

hell even if it WAS 20% it means 4 out of every 5 buyers is a local idiot.

they should treat assignment flipping as income. they should remove the PRE and just tax it normally as capital gains. they should collect, publicize, and archive housing data (similar to carfax…. just housefax).

oh and developers (especially in 905) should really make walkways in their damn communities. and drop the 1.5 laneway crap. like really?

#177 Madcat on 04.10.16 at 11:09 am

137 Mark on 04.09.16 at 6:40 pm
” Another 60 story building “One Burrard” sold out in three days with half going to investors. So our real estate markets have become casinos for the wealthy and cash cows for governments and the local be damned! If Trudeau is serious about income inequality he better start looking at forbidding such large portions of our markets to be literally sold to foreigners. After all, whom do they represent?”

Most of those investors Canadians. Are you really suggesting that Canadians should be forbidden to speculate? Should the government have stepped up in the late 1990s and told people they weren’t allowed to buy Nortel? Bre-X? ”

Mark, all of the manipulation the government already does trying to pump up the housing market compromises the principles of a true free market. Houses should be homes for people to live in locally, not a commodity to speculate and gamble with. The housing market should indeed be regulated. Homes should not be used as investment vehicles.

Buying a house should require a large downpayment. This would take most of the risk away from Banks and encourage people to save money. That would be responsible. Right now, the taxpayer is completely on the hook for all this gambling through the CHMC.

If the banks start failing because the housing market is imploding it would seem they would like to take all my money away to save the day! The money I have been stowing away in the bank LOL! Looks like the loser is going to be the saver… Yet the goveenment keeps trying to tell people to be more responsible LOL! Everything they do encourages people not to be responsible and save money…

#178 Min In Mission on 04.10.16 at 11:22 am

greed/fear, fear/greed, greed/greed

#179 Jason Blackstone on 04.10.16 at 11:42 am

Obama administration accused of pimping a new raft of sub prime loans to persons of high risk credit. Is this the ‘improvement in the market’ we’ve been told is happening? Award winning New York Post says so.

http://nypost.com/2016/04/09/team-obama-is-setting-us-up-for-another-housing-market-collapse/

The phony Liberal recovery may fall precipitously when Obama is gone and no longer has a boot on the necks of federal agencies.

Think of what’s going to happen to the spew that our PM has got caught up in when a bright guy like Ted Cruz puts him over a barrel and embarrasses our PM as a world renowned dummy riding the dirty shorts of Obama on climate change and social economics.

Trudy may have been taken in by Obama but the international media are circling like sharks to best each other on stories about what a lightweight our new PM really is. Look out below.

#180 TurnerNation on 04.10.16 at 11:58 am

If dogs could text…

http://www.boredpanda.com/texts-from-dogs/

#181 Shaan on 04.10.16 at 12:02 pm

H has good caused to be obsessed, Mr Turner. My father immigrated to Canada to come to a new land. Not to be subjects of the communist party !

Idiot comment. He’s free to return. — Garth

#182 sockeye sam on 04.10.16 at 12:38 pm

Why is this happening???

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/04/architecture/china-ordos-ghost-town/index.html

#183 Bucky on 04.10.16 at 12:49 pm

Off-topic – well, maybe under the broad topic of greed – but the G&M has an investing video identifying a stock pattern that looks suspiciously like SM’s inverted batman!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-trading-trends-the-cup-and-handle-pattern-can-help-predict-an-increase-in-share-price/article29546684/

#184 salonist on 04.10.16 at 1:25 pm

How the wealthy can beat Ottawa’s new rules by becoming low-income to save big on their taxes

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/managing-wealth/how-the-wealthy-can-beat-ottawas-new-rules-by-becoming-low-income-to-save-big-on-their-taxes

mr.turner would probably spin this.

mr. trudeau though, soon, will remedy such avoidance.

It is convoluted, impractical advice. — Garth

#185 Nagraj on 04.10.16 at 1:35 pm

I found #139 Enzcav, along with GT’s reply, very interesting.

#119 H proposes some reasons for the special Fed meet Monday. Would like to have him follow up on that.

Another commenter mentioned Monte Cassino in passing; well, who said “Drink your own poison!” (ipse venena bibas) to the devil? [I’m easily distracted.]

Nobody’s mentioned the most recent Statscan monthly jobs report which according to one analyst quoted in the G&M (Rosenberg if I recall rightly) needs to be taken “with an entire shaker of salt.”

#186 hoping to ruin it on 04.10.16 at 1:41 pm

#182 sockeye sam on 04.10.16 at 12:38 pm

Why is this happening???
______________________________________

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1Wrx6eQZ1E

I read the article. Here’s a crazy thought, 45% of China’s population still lives in rural areas. What if communist China is planning on forcibly displacing large numbers of people to these cities while they revolutionize their agricultural practices to meet growing food demands?

#187 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.16 at 2:35 pm

@#172 Blow Jays
“You are SO unoriginal, Canadians!!

Enjoy paying your Rogers bill to watch Blow Jays and Leafs lose again on your cell phone in the trailer park in the years ahead, after you lose your houses this year!”
*******************************************

And you call us un-original……..

Irony + inbreeding = idiocy

#188 BS on 04.10.16 at 2:56 pm

salonist on 04.10.16 at 1:25 pm
How the wealthy can beat Ottawa’s new rules by becoming low-income to save big on their taxes

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/managing-wealth/how-the-wealthy-can-beat-ottawas-new-rules-by-becoming-low-income-to-save-big-on-their-taxes

mr.turner would probably spin this.

mr. trudeau though, soon, will remedy such avoidance.

It is not possible to remedy such avoidance. When you increase taxes people will look for ways to pay less. Any new remedy will open new loopholes. This Financial Post example saves a couple $760K in taxes. Not bad for free advice from a news paper columnist. From the article:

We tried to do an apples-to-apples comparison of two different strategies, and we found that if we went to year 35 (ages 84 and 81 for the parents), they would be $760,000 ahead after tax by using the low income and line of credit strategy than they would be if they continued to draw their current salary, including inflation adjustments.

What tax code stands still for three decades? — Garth

#189 Burt on 04.10.16 at 3:23 pm

This is indicative of what I have been posting here for months; Vancouver and area is white hot – melting hot.

Houses are seeing 20-30 offers opening day, you only see news stories of $1,000,000 over ask, but its routine to pay $500,000 – $750,000 over ask.

Many neighbourhoods ask prices are $500,000 – $1,000,000 over last year, and further getting higher bids.

Further to this insanity build-able land is being bought on spec as well, driving new development prices drastically higher. Condos are now seeing multiples, and this will become much clearer by summer.

Big new players in Van grabbing land at prices thats making local developers uncomfortable, but we can choose to ignore that and believe were dealing with 5% foreign buyers – ok.

Rates can go up as much as they want – unless we see a total credit freeze Vancouver will easily be up another 20-25 points this year, notable difference being that condos will see a double digit increase as well.

Enjoy the show. Choose to believe what you will, there is the reality on the ground.