How do we know when we’ve bounced off the top? When you can actually expect house prices to start that inevitable decline?
Beats me. But we might already be staring at a few harbingers.
Like a boring, badly-reno’d, crappy little bung on a 44-foot lot in the Westside of Van that sold for a million over the outrageous asking price of $3.1 million. Now, tell us with a straight face there’s no bubble.
Would you pay $4.19 million for this?
Or how about a new reality TV show which will focus on house flippers – who are between 12 and 15 years old? “This,” says blog dog Doug, “in my opinion is the proverbial canary in the coalmine.” Here’s the official (sick) media release:
FYI Network is casting kids ages 12-15 all over USA and Canada who live for real estate for a new exciting home flipping show where aspiring young home flippers are mentored by industry pros. Are you obsessed with real estate, home reno and home flipping shows? Can you see a house and know exactly what needs to be done to it to turn a profit? Are your parents flippers and do you dream of following in their footsteps? We want to hear from you.
BTW, if you’ve produced children desperate to be realtors or speckers, and actually admit it, you can arrange for them to apply here. I mean, why aspire to be prime minister when you can be Brad Lamb?
And how about this sign that we’ve all jumped the shark? Royal LePage is actually playing the Trump card when it comes to pumping houses in its latest property-pimping report.
“The economic miracle that is contemporary Canada is driven in significant measure by our success at attracting quality immigrants to our land,” says boss Phil Soper. “While this is not new news, the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency has put renewed global focus on the often stark differences in opportunity and attitude that exist on either side of our huge border. In what started as a media prank, Canada’s attractiveness as a more realistic place to pursue life, liberty and happiness is gaining traction even in America.”
Of course, Trump won’t win. But if he did, what weird Americans would wish to move from, say, Chicago (average house price $330,000) to Toronto (average detached $1.2 million), or from Seattle (median price $496,750) to Vancouver ($1.78 million)? Would we want such mental defects?
And how about the “economic miracle” Soper is talking about? Our economy will grow this year (if we’re lucky) by half the US rate, with a federal government about to plunge into deficit and household debt at off-the-chart levels. Personal taxes are dramatically higher, wage growth is non-existent, and our biggest export commodity lost 70% of its value. Of course, we do possess a leader who has a tat, smokes weed and poses steamily with his hot wife in Vanity Fair, so I guess that evens things out.
Well, we don’t know where this is all going in the short run, but eventually it’ll end badly. That’s been the boring refrain here for a few years as the risk in an inflated market built, and now it’s being shared by a bank economist. Looking at the latest market stats, showing a 15% hike in year/year prices in Toronto and a bizarre bloat of 23% in Vancouver, Beemo’s Bob Kavcic says this: “Odds are that if this kind of price growth (especially Vancouver) continues, it will end badly.” But not yet.
In a research note, Kavcic figures the bubble will continue to inflate until the economy grinds lower and unemployment grinds higher, interest rates increase, more housing hits the market, the government steps in, or affordability just evaporates. The trouble is, he observes (and the Dunbar house above is a good example), that “rising prices don’t slow activity, but rather beget even higher prices.” It’s the buy-now-or-buy-never factor – a visceral fear of being “priced out forever” which has people paying insane prices and shouldering toxic levels of debt.
That, as you know, was the topic yesterday. Human nature. We want what everyone else wants. We shun what they shun. The bank guy is perfectly correct in his assessment – there are too many hormones flowing for the market to reverse soon. But it will. And the last ones in will be the greatest fools.
Good luck Skyping the TV show.
188 comments ↓
#1 furrst?
How are Millennials gonna pay for my entitlements if they are on welfare and trying to pay off their student loans ?
Go Donald Trump Go! He’s the only guy calling for a significant correction and the current bubble in the markets….
Do you still believe there will not be a crash?
Hasn’t prices gone up 20% these past 6 months alone (in Toronto/Vancouver?)
Even if things just correct and have a decade of small declines
And isn’t the consensus that as long as interest stay low (which it will for the next two years in Canada?)… by your calculations, aren’t you still ahead (less commissions and property transfer tax) to buy now even if 2 years from now housing corrects?
It certainly was true in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015…
I guess I’m goading you – how can you tell us there won’t be a crash, and simultaneously say this will end bad?
What will be the effect on Canadian banks?
HOUSE PRICES IN THE LOCAL BOARD‘S “OTHER AREAS” HAVE STARTED TO FALL AGAIN
. . . . . . . .Single Family Home Prices. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . Shawnigan Lake / Malahat, Gulf Islands, . . .
UpIsland / Mainland and Waterfront (all districts)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .Percent Above March 2014 Price Level. . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+15%. . . . . . . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
….0%. . . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
———————————————————————
. . . . . . March. . . . .March. . . . .March. .
. . . . . . .2014. . . . . 2015. . . . . .2016. . .
(source: Victoria’s R/E board)
I’ve used a 3-month median to put this chart together.
Median price data is considered by many to be the most useful, accurate and reliable and is widely used in the US. It is less affected by changes in the sales mix (skewing) than the average price.
The very useful 3-month median is easily found by averaging the medians of 3 consecutive months. This requires no magic and no tricks.
A YEAR-OVER-YEAR PRICE DECLINE
The 3-month median shows a 9% year-over-year price decline in the Victoria board’s “other areas”.
WILL THIS CONTINUE AND SOON MAKE ITS WAY TO GREATER VICTORIA?
Anyone who knows anything about real estate knows that price declines usually begin outside of a city and spread inward to the core.
It’s evident that the “other areas” experienced price gains along with Greater Victoria from some time in 2014 to approximately April of 2015. Since then the “other areas” have experienced falling prices and have recently shown a 9% year-over-year price decline.
Perhaps it’s a sign of things to come for Greater Victoria.
House prices will begin to fall again in Victoria. It’s only a matter of time. We may be able to watch falling prices spread inward toward Victoria in the coming months.
C3450537 Just listed in North Toronto….155% over asking…..a teardown unless it’s opening as a walk back in time exhibit….wow!
That bung is standing between 2 multi-level houses.
It will be most probably demolished and a new mansion built in its place. The 4+ million were paid for the land.
On another note, I see the RE markets in Van and GTA picking up, especially in the last 12 months. They have legs for several more years of growth – that’s for sure. If you want proof – just look at the graphs above.
Four million for the dirt? Well, I feel better now. — Garth
Stop this ride, I want to get off.
nice dip in 09 saved by zero down shit…
this new one should be cute.
can’t wait.
thanks for the chart Garth.
best
Silver
One of the questions on the linked application are:
What kind of real estate experience do you have? Does it run in the family?
Makes it seem like some kind of medical condition. Maybe it is. Who knows?
i forgot to add….
does that mean a 23% increase in property tax’s as well?
in Vancouver…?
Silver
I agree with your assessment. However, I do enjoy raising my young family in Vancouver but I currently do not own my home. Are you aware of investments to hedge against the continued increase in real estate prices in Vancouver (i.e. any REITs with high exposure to Vancouver).
Kid flippers. My ability to even has fallen below that of a white girl at Starbucks who just found out they are all out of soy milk.
Canada has a better growth rate in 2016 than that of the USA. And you have been on about housing for a few years above the few years that you acknowledge. But no secrets here, we will experience a housing correction when we see mortgage rates adjust higher by more than a few basis points. And…that could be a few more years further.
We have GDP numbers for one month in 2016 – January. You are amusing. — Garth
#3 HorseNation
How dare you.
There is no bubble in the markets and a significant correction is impossible…
Only in Canadian Housing in YVR and TO.
Really, how dare you even think that let alone post that?
Looks like delusional pricing has come to Vancouver Island and guess what – things are selling.
Yes, houses that could not sell for $650 are being re-listed at $750 and selling – in bedroom communities even. Sellers took the 20% increase in 2015 assessments that all BC homes were granted, and are throwing on another 15 or 20 percent increase in the listing prices.
Everybody saw the incredible March sales numbers, the 16% price increases, the dried up listings, the small, albeit increasing bidding wars, and the fact that the feds are so dovish. Renters have been pushed out as buyers move in, forcing rents up and a near 0% vacancy rate.
An old financial advisor warned that the feds projections are always overly optimistic and now it looks like the little chickens will wait until June, and then of course, they will put it off again. ‘Soon’ and ‘next year’ are the common refrain of bears and the of the feds.
Oh boy, lots of boomers cashing out in Vancouver, allowing the poor Island boomers to make a windfall as well, all the while driving up prices for the young families trying to get into the market.
Looks like the Vancouver price contagion has spread to the Island. And Islanders all already delusional with pricing here – the Vancouver capital fleeing foreign capital is just stoking that inherent greed.
But hey, we will leave it to VREU to explain the price increases and the notably ‘different’ conditions from a year ago….
Some say, whats the big deal – rates WILL go up – rent and enjoy life. Of course, rates will go up – but the impact will take years to materialize and all the while prices will keep going up as buyers ‘jump in’ to avoid the new rates – just like they did with the new down payment rules (and are still doing) and just like they have down for years with every measure ostensibly designed to curb the market.
Has anybody analyzed the impact of all the measures designed to curb the market? These include:
– elimination of zero down;
– the elimination of the 40 years amortization;
– then elimination of 35 year amortization;
– then elimination of 30 year without 25% down;
– then changed HELOC rules;
– then stronger capitalization requirements by banks;
– then changed qualification requirements – at the posted 5 year; and
– then new downpayment rules.
Gee, that list of ‘interventionist’ policies certainly did a lot for the market. Well, it did, it just did the opposite of the stated goal of those measures – as the market just keeps going up and up and up.
Two years ago, posters were absolutely mocked for saying houses would go to 2 million in Vancouver shortly. The average detached house is now $1.78 million. Gee, that did not take long.
So you can wait for years, and prices keep going up, and then wait many more for them to come back down to where they are today.
Life is short – so if you want to wait another 10 years for prices to come back down after a 13 year bull run, go for it.
Unbelievable.
Question BC’ers
Applied for a job in Burnaby, got to start looking outside this pathetic province of Alberta
What does rent go for there, I mean that’s close to multi million dollar country
I’m paying $895 for a fully furnished all inclusive one bedroom in Edmonton.
When it happens once or twice I can believe it’s locals up to the moon in debt, leveraging everything in sight just to get/or stay in the market. When it becomes a weekly phenomenon I think there is a different force at play. Whether it’s foreign money, corrupt locals, gang money, drug money, laundering, corrupt politicians, tax evasion or who knows what else, I am finding it more and more difficult to believe it’s the bank of mom and leveraged locals.
#12 Vundo on 04.07.16 at 5:42 pm
As this person said. I have lost it. I have lost the ability to can. My ability Toucan has flown away. No more Pumpkin Spice Lattes.
By the way, it seems like this blog consistently makes a quarterly acknowledgement that there is more steam in the market following either a: government initiative impacting the market; an external analyst who says there are problems but golly gee the market is still going up for whatever reason; or an economic event, either global or national, that puts more upward pressure on the market.
Similarly, there seems to be a quarterly acknowledgement that some recent government initiative, or economic condition or event, will herald the much anticipated decline.
Fear and hope – a good way to keep the attention span.
Fear and greed are currently winning the market, as it has for the last decade, and will continue to do so for a very long time.
Trump 2016
THIS WAS THE OPEN HOUSE LAST
WEEKEND THAT SOLD IN TWO DAYS.
This house is just around the corner from me. I know the realtor that made the deal.He moved to Vancouver from Mainland 15 years ago. I spoke with a close lady friend of his this morning at the pool who is also from MAINLAND.I asked her why is this year so busy? She said,the main reason people from mainland buy a house in Vancouver is for safety. She said, “Chinese people feel very safe in Vancouver”. Other reasons are .
Stable government.
Stable banking system.
Good weather. Questionable?
Less racism than the U.S.
Canada is easier to get into than the U.S.
She also said,”don’t expect this market to drop any time soon”.
Garth I’m afraid you are intellectually dishonest
Today you say:
“Well, we don’t know where this is all going in the short run, but eventually it’ll end badly.” AND
“Now, tell us with a straight face there’s no bubble.”
But a couple of weeks ago you said that there will not be a crush or correction instead you said it will be a long flat line of the prices.
How can we have a bubble that doesn’t end in burst?
You cant have both or can you?
Of course you can. There is not one national real estate market. Vancouver is obviously at a far greater risk than Winnipeg or Halifax, or even Toronto. Wait and watch. — Garth
Venezuela is closing down all business on Fridays for the next sever months due to the inability of the hydro grid to operate as the country teeters on the edge of complete and utter chaos. Canada is not quite the basket case of Venezuela but with our emphasis on green energy and real estate it does beg the question what t** f***?
The Trump candidate for the Republican Nominee in the American 2016 race for President is not being translated in the MSM in Canada.
Trump blames the Obama regime for spending over a trillion on the middle east quick sand of never ending conflicts for America’s slow growth and the middle class malaise which he intends not to repeat but instead spend the trillion on AMERICA which means CANADA will get some of that big moola. So kind of wonder why all the whining and screwed up faces of pundits on CBC and CTV is fer?
186 Wallace asking under a million and sold 60% over asking, not too bad eh!? Toronto is still pretty affordable compare to the Vancity, OMG!!! what do we know about bubble!!
SMH!!!
Watched the ‘Big Short’ on Bluray last night (Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt).
Recommended viewing for anyone who doesn’t yet believe the Canadian housing market is in for a financial haircut.
Truly sick how the media continues to portray increased housing unaffordability in this country as a benefit for everyone.
Cue the lanterns and pitchforks….
My family of five member were “new” Canadians when we got our US Green Card (Permanent Residency). We moved to Texas (10 miles north of Dallas) in Jan 2013, and immediately bought a 4400 sq ft house for $380k cash. We were fortunate because at that time, one USD is equal to one CAD. Wife and I got jobs within one and three months respectively of arriving here, total income was 30% more than what we were getting in Ontaria (GTA).
When we immigrated to Canada in 2005, I told my sister who sponsored our US Green Card that I would probably remained in Canada even when our US approves our Immigrant Visa. However, after eight years of struggling with the lack of high-paying jobs (both wife and I having Masters degree in IT-related field), and not willing to plow our $800k+ savings into a single asset (we rented), we decided Canada was not really of land of dreams anymore. So we voted with our feet and made this move. Never been happier.
Last year, I got my real estate license, and started investing in rental properties. My latest purchase is a 3 bedroom 2 bath single family house, 1300 sq ft in Plano Texas, which I bought for $140,000 and currently being rented out for $1400 per month.
I follow Garth’s blog every day, and each time I read, I felt sick reading about how crazy and stupid the real estate prices in certain areas of Canada has gone up to. At this rate, even if real estate prices were to drop 50% in GTA, it would be hard to justify returning “home” to a place where our income would be cut by 50% and tax up by a substantial amount from what we are enjoying here.
Quote – “The economic miracle that is contemporary Canada is driven in significant measure by our success at attracting quality immigrants to our land,” says boss Phil Soper.
I laugh (and cry at the same time) when I read this statement.
# 197 Move on VREU (April 3rd)
“And no government, whether provincial or federal, and no political party, will ever touch the tools that facilitate this global capital scourge.”
… And HAM is the only reason Vancouver house prices have been rising… And this has made Vancouverites flock to Victoria to buy real estate… And this won’t stop because “no government will ever touch the tools that facilitate this global capital scourge.”… Therefore, house prices in Victoria will never stop rising…
Has anyone ever called you a nutbar?
Just asking.
That sums it all up for you. You keep arguing with me based on your whacky assumptions.
I’ve exposed that your argument for higher house prices forever in Victoria is the sort of thing an extremist would come up with.
You should start your own blog. You could call it “The Global Capital Scourge – Why Buying Real Estate At Bubble Prices Is Safe”
#20….there are clearly one off’s where foreign investment is buying real estate regardless of cost. The reason is simple: we have a currency crisis…certain nations are devaluing their currency and so for the wealthy, buying hard assets in highly desirable places to live is a form of wealth protection.
Apparently the $4 million bungalow was bought by “locals”.
re: #12 Silver on 04.07.16 at 5:38 pm
i forgot to add….
does that mean a 23% increase in property tax’s as well?
in Vancouver…?
Silver
Amazing at the level of ignorance regarding the determination of property taxes, silver and other similarly challenged deserved to get fleeced by the government, someone, anyone
and no I am sick of trying to enlighten people re: their property taxes educate yourselves people
How do we know when we’ve bounced off the top?
Mark Hanson says that as long as the market is rising there are no signs because distressed buyers simply sell into a rising market.
Right now, the crazy prices in Vancouver and Toronto help support the rest of the country. For example, somebody cashes out in Vancouver to buy a nice house in the Wolfville NS ( $1 million goes a long way in Wolfville ).
Vancouver and Toronto are going to crash. Vancouver is parabolic! The Liberals need to put the brakes on! Raise interest rates, tighten CMHC lending standards.
This is my last ditch effort to save the Liberal Party of Canada.
Canada and it’s condo economy are the jealousy of the world. With a hot ass, selfie snappin’ PM and his hot main squeeze, half-pint house flippers, fast-food restaurants promosing top minimum wage and absolutely no manufacturing or resource based, commodity pumping provincial economies, why would you want to live anywhere else.
Next big tv series will be fifth graders turning abandoned forestry, mines and tar sands projects into eco-friendly condos, apartments and investment properties.
Of course, Trump won’t win.
_______________________
Well, … I wouldn’t be so categorical. A lot has been written about Trump – most likely not winning, to be sure. Yet, … yet the raw reality of the Trump situation is that yuuuge, yuuuge masses of wage earning [unprotected *] Americans place their last remaining hopes for the future on Donald Trump as POTUS!
F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.
___________
*) Trump and the Rise of the Unprotected
http://www.peggynoonan.com/trump-and-the-rise-of-the-unprotected/
#8 gladiator on 04.07.16 at 5:32 pm says… “… …
On another note, I see the RE markets in Van and GTA picking up, especially in the last 12 months. They have legs for several more years of growth – that’s for sure. If you want proof – just look at the graphs above.”
You do realize that the graph shows incremental change and if you actually looked at the prices themselves the graph would look insane… If anything, especially in Vancouver, the graph looks just about cooked. When the line goes asymptotic, it generally is game over.
That said, Vancouver is a place where a cool quip by twitter is worth more than a months salary…
when the Toronto and Vancouver bubble finally pop they are going to drag the rest of the country right into an economic pit
major major recession and possibly a financial crisis as mortgage banking, construction and home furnishings sales dry up to nothing as most buyers wait for real estate to bottom out before getting back in
any buyers left will be making offers on how low they expect property will be worth three years into future
this could go on for seven to 10 years
Holy f%4ing sh!t
How can anyone defend the Vancouver RE market anymore?
How could anyone pay that much? For that?
#17 Move on VREU
More fear mongering from the vested interest snake oil salesman….
FOMO – keep pushing that barrow, never mind that it is now filled to the top with horse manure…………
#8 gladiator on 04.07.16 at 5:32 pm
A mansion on a 44 foot lot? My god you can’t make this stuff up.
“Move on VREU”
Wow, what is it with this blog and well-respected posters attracting complete trolls?
How can the board say prices fell only 5 percent in 2009? Where do they get their numbers from? Houses could be had for a minimum 20 percent off the top.
4.19 mil? There must be a castle and a coastline hiding behind that guest house.
Even anyone that hates cats cannot tell me that cat picture isnt hilarious.
@#26 bigtowne
Venezuela’s disasterous 10 year experiment in Socialism and “equality for all” is in its death throes……
Food, medicine, money and ironically fuel (since Venezuela exports oil).
Referendums to throw out the socialist dictatorship that refuses to understand or believe how unpopular it is have been sidelined by the Socialist loons in charge.
Well, after 10 years of grotesque fiscal incompetance, economic reality is biting socialist theory (fantasy) in its incompetant, cashless, lazy ass.
Its only a matter of time before the riots begin.
Stay tuned
Let the morons who buy homes at these prices believe they got a good deal. The renters living in the same neighbourhood are the ones laughing all the way to the bank. Hahaha!
DELETED
“How can the board say prices fell only 5 percent in 2009? Where do they get their numbers from? Houses could be had for a minimum 20 percent off the top.”
Likely it was the sales mix. Lower end stuff wasn’t transacting as the credit markets were in a state of paralysis. So basically all you had were higher-end homes transacting. Hence, the shift in the sales mix covered up much of the decline exhibited on identical houses.
Very similar to what’s been occurring over the past 3 years where the prices of identical houses, even in Vancouver/Toronto, have been, at best, stagnant, if not slightly down. But the ‘averages’ of the houses the Realtors happen to be transacting in have risen dramatically. Its not because the houses themselves have become more valuable — its simply because the Realtors are transacting, on average, in a different statistical percentile of the market.
Ross Kay talks about this quite a bit in his most recent interview on “Talkdigitalnetwork” which you can find online. He approaches the discussion a little bit differently than I do, but we come to a very similar set of conclusions based on independent analysis of independent datasets.
Hey Smoking Man,
Remember you said no crash until hockey stick? Price increases of 1% every two weeks surely look like the hockey stick to me.
At the current rate, the average 1.3 mil house will be worth a billion in 30 years.
RE: “Would you pay $4.19 million for this?”
I don’t know what’s going on over there out west in Van City, but I can tell you, I sure wish I had known about this in the 1990’s. Because I know that whatever wrinkled old dude and his wife parted with that horrid looking house, are laughing all their way to the tropics for a very comfortable permanent retirement.
4.19 million at 5% is $209,500.00 per year.
Seriously.
Absolutely ridiculous.
DELETED
If the real estate market in Toronto continues to climb for 2 more year before correction at a rate of 10% per year. Even if a 20% correction took place in 24 months, I would be even. What factors could cause a correction quick enough to start see real declines within 24 mounths?
Porsche
Re; rental rates in Burnaby
Rental rates for a decent 1 bedroom are 1-1.5K/mth. Craigslist is a good place to find places in BC, in your case the Burnaby/New West section http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/search/bnc/apa
#45 crowdedelevatorfartz
“Food, medicine, money and ironically fuel (since Venezuela exports oil).”
why did you left out toilet paper?!
bloomberg March 31, 2016
“Over the past three years, Venezuelans have seen shortages of food, water, toilet paper and medicine.”
#32 PATHCONTROLMONK
This house in today’s photo was not bought by locals.
As I posted yesterday. One of the realtors responsible for selling this house came to my door to see if I was interested in listing with him because he was quite proud to go around my hood boasting he got 1 mil. over. I asked him who bought the house in today’s photo?He replied, “A FAMILY FROM MAINLAND CHINA”. I then asked him if was going to be a tear down and he replied, “I don’t know”?Again let’s be clear.
“NOT LOCAL MONEY,MAINLAND CHINA”
LOCALS IN VANCOUVER USUALLY DON’T HAVE THAT KIND OF MONEY”. “I LIVE HEAR I SHOULD KNOW”.
Or would you rather get your information from the SUN?
Only in YVR would people actually care. The city is adolescent. — Garth
Hey
People coming to GTA nowadays is a lot different than in the past. There is very little new homes being built to handle the influx of people nowadays.
The resale market also has shortage of new homes.
Just a few years ago, there was new homes all over the GTA. Every city had new homes.
This imbalance did not exist in the past. S
#32 pathcontrolmonk on 04.07.16 at 6:36 pm
Apparently the $4 million bungalow was bought by “locals”.
……………………………………………………………………..
Ya, I heard they immigrants from Syria.
Ignorant. Do better or buzz off. — Garth
That new TV show that they are auditioning for will be FULL of Italian teenagers. Let me tell you, they will know what they are doing. Italian teens already know how to completely gut and Reno a home from the ground , care of uncle Luigi.
It should be completely natural for the show to appear on TLN tv in multiple languages
#46 Renters delight.
If you want to rent that house in today’s photo it’s gonna cost ya around $6,000.00-$7000.00 per month. It has a legal suite. The other house that just sold a few hundred feet away(Vancouver special with a suite) is asking $6000.00 per month and I still don’t know if that’s main floor only or whole house. If ya’ll don’t know what a Vancouver Special is. It’s a rectangular box approx 1000-1200 sq. ft per floor usually consists of two floors.
#37 – Can you explain what “the line goes asymptotic” means?? Thanks
Yes 4 mil seems like a lot, but that wee hedge in the front is adorable.
We live in interesting times.
#20 Van Man:
It’s all of the things you mentioned and you can throw in the real estate ‘cartel’ as well. They own politicians, the media, and anything else that gets in their way. The ‘Military Industrial Complex’ includes the real estate cartel these days. If it all goes bust they will just take a vacation for a while and then come back and start all over again. Maybe a different place, maybe the same place. It may not be the 1800’s and it isn’t snake oil that is being sold, but the game and the players are the same. On another note, what an adorable cat with its pink pads and nose. Garth, I think Bandit could use a little mascot like this one.
The story made national news. Quite obvious the rest of Canada may be interested. Ya think?
The stupidity of the market fascinates many. But the obsession with ethnicity is getting real old. — Garth
Fresh off the CMHC site – foreign ownership of condos:
Report Highlights
In the Toronto CMA, the share of foreign ownership is less than 2% for buildings completed before 1990 and 7% for newer constructions completed since 2010. This effect is even more pronounced in Toronto Centre where about 10% of the newer stock is owned by foreigners.
In the Vancouver CMA, foreign buyers’ share rises from less than 2% for properties built before 1990 to about 6% for those completed since 2010.
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2016/2016-04-07-1100.cfm
#53 Harbour on 04.07.16 at 7:42 pm
#32 pathcontrolmonk on 04.07.16 at 6:36 pm
Apparently the $4 million bungalow was bought by “locals”.
……………………………………………………………………..
Ya, I heard they immigrants from Syria.
Ignorant. Do better or buzz off. — Garth
……………………………………………………………………..
About as ignorant and stupid as the local post
Here in the USA, I was convinced that 2006 was the end of the up cycle in real estate. Worse, I took my own advice and sold what I had. Now, in multifamily, I am seeing cap rates of 2 and 3, and that’s in podunk Sacramento, not exactly the hottest market in California. I give up. Real estate is probably going 200% higher with my luck. Yeah, I see flippers every where and everyone is talking about how much money they made in real estate. Maybe the Fed is just not going to let any asset class go down in price. So, my advice to everyone is buy as much real estate as possible. Mortgage your mother, and clean out all the change in the couch. Get 0 down if possible. You will become millionaires in 10 years, guaranteed.
“…the bubble will continue to inflate until ….or affordability just evaporates” BMO’s Bob Kavcic
As I mentioned yesterday, earnings across Canada are flat to rolling over; Alberta’s earnings plot is more pronounced to the downside than the other energy provinces for the moment but only AB, NFL, SK & ON earnings exceed the national average. Chart: http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html
Today I updated my “Real Price” of Vancouver, Toronto & Calgary SFDs Chart: http://www.chpc.biz/real-price-of-housing.html
The chart includes the Bank of Canada Commodities Index in CAD. Is the current commodity deflation a destruction event or just a mere correction event?
Inflationistas are making very large bets in YVR and YYZ real estate if it turns out to be a long term destruction event.
I don’t believe TRUMP will win the nomination. American Republicans are nothing, if not a stable group rather inbred in thinking, and extremely slow to adapt.
Therefore, they will go with a brokered convention without regard if TRUMP has acquired the requisite number of delegates. They will pick a former low light, thus assuring a Clinton victory in November.
Canadian two cities RE march shows a 2% MONTHLY return YOY in the moldy city -A hell of a return rate IF it can be sustained for another 24 months…! I have my doubts, but for right NOW it looks like a winner! ASSUME it is a horse race, and you want your money on SEA-BISCUIT.
Hey Bill, thanks for the two electronic links yesterday, both helpful.
Annual physical today, Quack says I am good for another year. Would NOT give me a guarantee in writing., well, what, exactly, do they know?
#59 april on 04.07.16 at 7:50 pm
“#37 – Can you explain what “the line goes asymptotic” means?? Thanks”
Sorry – did not mean to be obtuse. I won’t get into the math but imagine the curve of a wine glass. As you move from the stem up the side of the glass you eventually are going totally vertical. When a gradually curved line gets so steep that it is still curving but not quite perfectly going vertical, it is called asymptotic. The imaginary vertical line is the asymptote of the curved line. Probably made this more confusing… Hey – Google it… ;-)
Che Feng: son in law of China’s central bank governor apparently implicated in Panama Papers. About 45 other CPC members as well. $4 Trillion in Panama. And he has a company in Vancouver too.
Don’t know how much is true but this story all over Reddit and other housing blogs.
#65 Brian Richards on 04.07.16 at 8:07 pm
“Here in the USA, I was convinced that 2006 was the end of the up cycle in real estate. ”
Sacramento, like a lot of the US, did collapse in 2008-10. Why didn’t you go back in once it had collapsed with all the money you made on the sale?
One of my buddies bought in 2006 in Cupertino and walked away after values crashed (09). He was making big money and was able to buy a place even nicer for 2/3 the cost in 2011.
What’s going on with: Urbancorp
Garth, it looks like you’re coming to your senses!
Two consecutive days of no dog pics, and now today a charming photo of one of earth’s smartest animals. Kudos to your newfound smarts.
(It almost makes up for that stupid photo Monday of the puppy holding a giant bone twice as smart as that moronic mutt would ever be)
Keep this streak going, fella!
Maybe we’ll even chase down and slaughter some rodents for you as a little thanks. (Mice, not the frequent posters here – they’re too disgusting and stupider than dogs. We have standards)
T2 should add extra taxes on top of the taxes he’s already raised on the rich, on the rich in Vancouver.
Clearly there are tons of rich people living there with too much money and nothing better to spend it on.
Chicago is an awful example given the exodus from the city especially of the well heeled. The Chicago pension system is so messed up and union work rules so entrenched the only way to change either of them is likely bankruptcy. Properties are cheap because taxes are going to bite hard.
I think that Canada’s biggest export has troughed and Canada will be stimulating on a massive scale, so our GDP is likely to be higher than the US, afterall the FED forecast is really low with GDPNow at 0.4%.
One other thing. Kavcic may be wrong in the sense that bubbles do not necessarily need a catalyst to burst. The sheer weight of them is often enough.
One of the few constants that do not change across asset types and time is that there will be mean reversion. Since Garth bought a property recently, it is like the last bear capitulating. This spring season is THE END.
“Fresh off the CMHC site – foreign ownership of condos:”
Yup. I’ve said plenty of unkind things about the CMHC over the years, but they’ve been mostly on account of the competency of high-level policy decisions made by the CMHC and the propaganda it has put out on its future ‘predictions’ for market performance. Not on its actual data collection.
The CMHC report basically puts to bed the myth that foreign participants are driving the Canadian RE market. Which, along with basically every other piece of credible research (that National Bank-sponsored piece which has more holes than Swiss cheese aside), points to only minimal foreign participation in Canada’s RE marketplace.
I know its been to the frustration of many that the actors to blame are domestic, not “foreign”, but that’s what the facts state. A speculative RE bubble driven almost entirely by domestic speculators in both housing units, as well as the credit that backs them. Yes, even “Grandma” with her quarter million dollar GIC portfolio is a credit speculator these days, unwitting as it may seem.
I’m still trying to figure which leader it is with the hot wife. I mean they all have tats and smoke pot. Can’t be Kathleen (“his” is the clue there). Brad Wall? Hmmm … Vanity Fair … nope, I give up.
one big seismic dump by mother nature and that place is 6 feet underwater and worth less than your mom’s kia.
“What factors could cause a correction quick enough to start see real declines within 24 mounths?”
Toronto has seen stagnant, not rising prices over the past 3 years. What could cause the sales mix changes to come undone would be speculators unloading their lower end units in significant numbers as another asset class starts to come into prominence and attracts the attention of speculators.
What that sector might be, I’m not sure, but just since the blow-out in January, the gold/metals mining sector has posted some spectacular stock gains. And not much evidence of the garden variety speculators even participating in that marketplace yet.
If you want to get Cat-pal Tunnel Syndrome then do what the picture is showing.
$4.19Million ……. a MILLION over asking….. 1 with 6 zeros……holy bleep ….whats wrong with people ????….seriously
” Of course, we do possess a leader who has a tat, smokes weed and poses steamily with his hot wife in Vanity Fair, so I guess that evens things out.”
——————————————-
Holy crap! Another completely disconnected, unrelated, unnecessary, out of context ad hominin attack on Canada’s PM! What the hell gives?
I would expect such right wing crap from guys like Levant. Why can’t you just stick with financial stuff – controversial enough!
No doubt some of the mental midgets on this blog will come to your defence. But look what can and will happen if you keep riling the unbalanced:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/man-charged-with-threats-after-call-to-alberta-environment-minister-1.3525534
What is incorrect in that sentence? — Garth
I live in Victoria and I was talking to a Realtor the other day who mentioned that a majority of people flocking to buy houses are locals and are not from Vancouver, and it seems that the only thing keeping the economy together (outside of Govt. and tourism) here is the real estate industry.
The people overpaying a $100k etc. are irrational. The market in Victoria will correct just like it will in Vancouver. The people risking everything with one majority asset, being real estate, have to be right every day. I just have to be right once for them to lose a huge chunk of change (and possibly a lot more).
#82 Big Dipper on 04.07.16 at 8:55 pm
” Of course, we do possess a leader who has a tat, smokes weed and poses steamily with his hot wife in Vanity Fair, so I guess that evens things out.”
——————————————-
Holy crap! Another completely disconnected, unrelated, unnecessary, out of context ad hominin attack on Canada’s PM! What the hell gives?
I would expect such right wing crap from guys like Levant. Why can’t you just stick with financial stuff – controversial enough!
No doubt some of the mental midgets on this blog will come to your defence. But look what can and will happen if you keep riling the unbalanced:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/man-charged-with-threats-after-call-to-alberta-environment-minister-1.3525534
What is incorrect in that sentence? — Garth
—
He has more than one tat.
“The people overpaying a $100k etc. are irrational. “
Maybe “the people overpaying” aren’t really arms-length buyers at all, but just speculators passing properties amongst themselves in an effort to inflate their own inventories and save their skins, at least on paper, for the time being.
“Assignment flipping” was an example of a schema where basically speculative participants did this, recording transactions in the MLS, with a concerted effort to avoid land transactional taxes. One speculator was quoted in the Globe and Mail as owning “15 to 20 properties, primarily for resale”. If what I’ve heard anecdotally is true, there must be hundreds, if not low-thousands of similar individual speculators in places like Vancouver/Toronto, with a huge vested personal interest in seeing an artificially inflated RE marketplace.
Its basically like “pump and dump” in stocks, or even more subtle forms of stock manipulation. Since everyone buys RE on credit, there’s so much riding on avoiding severely negative outcomes that the speculators at this point will do anything to unload their properties before the pricing environment deteriorates even further than it already has.
How else would you describe them? People from the planet Nebula? The Chinese call me an Anglo or a White and we call them Chinese. It’s a Vancouver thing I guess.
Jeez get over it!
What is the difference if I say the people that bought it are from Vegreville or the people that bought it were from Mainland China???? As Hillary would say “what difference does it make????
The reason for housing prices in Canada is also cheap interest rates. The US 30 year mortgage rate is at 3.75% which is still the choice for a lot of people while here in Canada the vast majority does not even do a 5 year fixed. 10 year fixed is not even on the radar. People are getting 2.0% something. And I guess they expect this to continue forever. I read some canadian government regulation prohibits long term mortgages.what exactly is the regulation and why? Was it the best thing that ever happened to the real estate industry because it keeps rates artificially low because they are shorter term rates.
I think the average home price will hit $10 million in Vancouver by 2020 and $5 million in Toronto.
the subject of the BoC raising rates sooner got my preferred shares all happy today. cpd too. should go according to plan I expect
“What is incorrect in that sentence? — Garth”
————————————————-
Yeah, try this one:
But your honour, I’m trying to HIDE my contempt for this court…
So, it’s accurate. — Garth
In BC, At some point,
Even if rates don’t rise,
Even if shady lenders keep making liar loans,
If prices continue to rise as they have over the past year or so, AND wages do not increase proportionately, there will come a time when people cannot service their debt, not even with a HELOC.
It will start in the boondocks, say Maple Ridge or Abbotsford, and work towards ground zero: Vancouver.
I predict some areas in the Lower Mainland could eventually experience a 50% price drop, perhaps even more for condos. (Lots of empty River view condos in Maple Ridge, with hundreds more units under construction along 240th).
No area will be safe, not even if it’s discovered that every property in Vancouver’s west side is owned by money-laundering, high-ranking Communist party officials from mainland China.
Once the market psychology shifts (only took 8% distressed properties in the US), the “non-local” owners, however many there are, will head for the exits along with everyone else.
” I read some canadian government regulation prohibits long term mortgages.what exactly is the regulation and why?”
Its the Canada Interest Act. I believe the reason for this was to prevent people, in a long-term falling rate environment, from being locked into mortgages at higher rates that they couldn’t pay.
The US, on the other hand, had a mortgage market structured much like Canada’s in the 1920s, which failed spectacularly during the 1930s. Large numbers of “balloon mortgages” defaulted on account of banks refusing to roll them over on account of capital impairment within the banking system. Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac were formed to provide federal government sponsorship and implicit “guarantees” necessary to create a market for 30-year fixed term mortgages.
Canada, being significantly less industrialized than the US, and significantly less indebted financially, didn’t suffer nearly the same carnage as the US economy in the “Great Depression” so there was no big call to establish the 30-year term mortgage. I believe the CMHC’s origins date back to the post-WW2 era when there was an acute housing shortage on account of repatriated servicemen and their either pregnant or soon-to-become pregnant brides. So different sequences of events that caused certain policy to exist in Canada vs. the USA led to different outcomes.
Garth whats up with the pictures of cute kitty cats? This isn’t reddit!
Well I guess its the internet and cat pictures go with the internet like butter on sliced bread..
nice graph at the end of today’s blog. amazing to see how YVR and YYZ real estate prices have only increased. crazy. this is one story where I can’t wait to read the ending
I work with a large group of Gen-Xers and Millenials, most of whom bought homes within the last two to seven years. They got married and started families and did what most average young Canadian family does, make the biggest purchase of their lives. All I hear from these groups each day is their expectations that prices will keep rapidly climbing. Most truly expect the average million dollar Toronto home will soon be two million! Reasons: Some draw parallels to NYC and how Toronto is an emerging world class city and many immigrant families that initially moved there were eventually priced out of their own neighbourhoods. Shear population growth like NYC will continue to drive prices much higher. Another point is that foreigners will continue dumping their money in major Canadian cities, since Canada is a safe haven.
First off, the NYC housing market has not climbed non-stop and has undergone some major corrections:
http://furmancenter.org/files/Trends_in_NYC_Housing_Price_Appreciation.pdf
Second, I think Jason Kirby has it exactly “right” in this Maclean’s article.. Read Gen-Xers and Millenials:
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-insane-expectations-driving-the-canadian-housing-market/
Finally, doesn’t it get worrisome when so many US investors keep taking major positions against Canadian housing:
http://renx.ca/boardwalk-reit-squeezed-by-double-short/
Many are also talking a global asset bubble as many other economies have experienced such rapid house price growth, take Australia for example:
http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.ca/2016/01/how-australian-households-most-indebted.html?m=1
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-24/new-big-short-australias-housing-bubble-grip-insanity
Australia seems to be experiencing very similar woes to Canadian housing.
Housing goes thru cycles, periods of growth and contraction just as any normal business cycle. Don’t be fooled!!! The latest charts from Garth and Jason Kirby appear to be that typical blip in prices and herd psychology in human behaviour before a major collapse. Don’t get caught with the herd!
it’s crazy that Google shows that real estate prices in vancity and hog town have increased so much despite the sales mix. these two cities are insane. but like all things, this too shall pass
So, it’s accurate. – Garth
_________________
No, it’s contemptuous, and you know it.
What factors could cause a correction quick enough to start see real declines within 24 mounths?
when the correction comes nobody will see it coming. BC and ON have amazing jobs creation, low interest rates and easy credit. I’m interested in seeing how this plays out. real estate prices in vancity and hog town have only known one direction – up.
Porsche:
Lots of good 1 bedroom rentals for $800-900 in Burnaby. Check Craigslist.
Know your rights and responsibilities as a renter in BC:
http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/housing-tenancy/residential-tenancies
Good luck to you.
If we take the average prices in YVR and divide by the rents (minus taxes and expenses) that would be like the P/E ratio. I am wondering if we are at tech bubble levels yet?
What will the property taxes be on this bungalow on a 44 foot lot in Vancouver be?
$3000/month?
$36,000/year?
Until they bulldoze and rebuild … then higher?
Nice contribution to the tax system in British Columbia
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-07/exclusive-here-rothschilds-primer-how-launder-money-us-real-estate-and-avoid-blackli
It seems the real estate market in some places, appears to be nothing more than a giant money laundering operation.
Is it possible, that these mystery buyers, snapping up crack shacks for millions, are really just trusts using shadow corporations to launder money?
Wouldn’t that be something, the money launderers intentionally driving up prices in major cities to launder money, the ripple effect in conjunction with low interest rates sets off an epic housing bubble that self perpetuates.
Is it possible, that these mystery Chinese buyers, are in fact, trusts laundering money? This entire bubble was set off by money laundering if so.
Haha… too funny.
http://www.bcbusiness.ca/real-estate/big-fat-deal-62-million-for-a-licence-to-print-money
#86 sockeye sam on 04.07.16 at 9:06 pm
What is the difference if I say the people that bought it are from Vegreville or the people that bought it were from Mainland China????
Hey let’s not be dissin Vegreville now … was in the A&W in Veg last fall and a local gave me a free book of A and Dub coupons. Nice folks out there. My uncle who farmed there used to call it the Yukon cause there’s “a Yuke on every corner.”
Even with this crappy house drop by 50%, it will still be out of reach for 95% of the people working in Vancouver.
>>>> “… casting kids ages 12-15 all over USA and Canada ”
The house-porn finally turns to pedophilia?
#60 april on 04.07.16 at 7:50 pm
#37 – Can you explain what “the line goes asymptotic” means?? Thanks
….
It means prices go so high, so fast that they fall over backwards in time and we’ll be paying 4 mill for a house in 2001 dollars.
—
#52 James on 04.07.16 at 7:20 pm
What factors could cause a correction quick enough to start see real declines within 24 mounths?
…
Cost of living increase/job loss.
—
I knew a cat who would leave multiple windows open on the computer and cryptic messages in the text editor, which I saved…for the authorities.
Doesn’t matter if Vancouver crashes , the demographics in this city have changed significantly over the past 15 years–for the worst.
Go away. — Garth
Four million for the dirt? Well, I feel better now. — Garth
In Hong Kong that dirt likely worth > $8M in many neighborhoods.
That’s the fundamentals for Vancouverites.
DELETED
#79 Mark
“Toronto has seen stagnant, not rising prices over the past 3 years.”
First it was “falling”, then it was “stagnant or falling”, now it’s just “stagnant”. Attaboy, you’re getting there!
#24
…
She said, “Chinese people feel very safe in Vancouver”.
————————-
while Surrey remains ‘cheap’ (outside rich Chinese radar), care to join the points?
There is no “obsession with ethnicity”, the issue is about funds originating from a country with zero transparency and chronic corruption.
That Van house looks like something you might be able to buy for $150k in Windsor. I wonder what the price would be if it actually had a driveway and garage?
DELETED
#17 Move on VREU on 04.07.16 at 5:49 pm…
You are correct in month to month comparisons, but a quick question to help me understand the hot market in Victoria.
Why are prices still not up to the level of 2010? As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the SFH price in 2010 was $ 711,392 and the March 2016 price was $ 663,300 not the $ 782,161 it should be just to keep pace with inflation.
I guess those island folks should worry, their $ 700K homes will be worth a couple of million next year, right?
Having seen first hand what happened to multi-million dollar homes in Phoenix 2006-2011, I wouldn’t recommend real estate in Canada unless you follow the esteemed professors’ advice. Either a smoking deal or a smaller city using the rule of 90 as a basis for your purchase. If you don’t have cash then it’s financial suicide.
If you happen to have 2 million cash it would be less risky to invest it in a Vegas casino!
#50 Ace Goodheart
They weren’t old people that sold this house in the photo.
They were a young w couple in their thirties with small children. Must be money in the gold business because that’s who he works for.It’s a famous gold charting company with daily internet reports. Not going to tell you but starts with a K and ends with an O
Well, we don’t know where this is all going in the short run, but eventually it’ll end badly
T2 mortgage rules report card: D-
#111 Balmuto on 04.07.16 at 10:25 pm
How could you possibly doubt an unemployed, dual-degreed graduate who by his own admission suffered PTSD from studying too hard?
(http://forums.redflagdeals.com/ptsd-engineering-school-675936/#post7931888)
He has said that he has “come to a very similar set of conclusions based on independent analysis of independent datasets” regarding his favourite sales mix topic, that should be good enough for anyone.
TO ALL THE UNEMPLOYED O/O
EXCAVATOR OPERATORS OUT THERE
Bring your machines into Vancouver. Thars money in smashing down all these beautiful old homes on the west side.
Is it rational? No.
But you know how the saying goes:
“The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent.”
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/
Well……just got back from the pub.
(I actually won a free beer because my table had #88 stuck to it and that Chernobyl mutant that the Canucks signed scored a goal?!?!?!? His first in the NHL?!?!?!?)
Anywho.
Was sitting next to a table of teachers( yup Thursday is Friday in their world because its just another “pro D” day tomorrow….How many days a year DO teachers get off anyway unlike the rest of the working world ? 30? 50? ……..but I digress)
ALL OF THEM were “one-upper-guy” loudly bragging about what their houses were worth.
The loudest cackling teacher bellowed, “I bought my house in 1991 for 251k and now its worth 1.5 million!” .
I couldnt stand it. ( Brazil Ex-Pat understands where I’m coming from ……)
I leaned in and said. ” Sell!, Sell now! I’m a Realtor (total BS but they dont know that) and this thing is going DOWN! Record low interest rates have only one way to go! Is anyone here able to buy a house at these prices? Does anyone want to?
Sell NOW before the crash, rent, invest and retire!”
Crickets.
Is it my breath ? Or the “other” emanations that leave people speechless…….
I need another brweski.
Urp! I meant Brewski.
@#47 & 51 Brazil Ex Pat
“Deleted”
Wow! Twice in one night! A new record?
While I realize my “nom de plume”(fume?) is like waving a red flag(me) to a bull(you)…..
In order to avoid the obligatory “Deleted”……
Perhaps you should try insulting me or( if my ego runs rampant) anyone else without the typical knuckle dragging reversion to infantile obscenities….
The facts , a thesaurus, an education, and a bit of sarchasm usually works………
@#54 NoName
You Sir. Are absolutely correct.
Unbelievable $4 Million. From Tuktoyuktuk with love. TUKU!
PB43
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/ptsd-engineering-school-675936/#post7931888
oh dear
WalMark did u manage to get off the mind altering medication? or are u still taking them?
Nice day to own preferreds.
#64 marcy on 04.07.16 at 8:02 pm
Fresh off the CMHC site – foreign ownership of condos:
Report Highlights
In the Toronto CMA, the share of foreign ownership is less than 2% for buildings completed before 1990 and 7% for newer constructions completed since 2010. This effect is even more pronounced in Toronto Centre where about 10% of the newer stock is owned by foreigners.
In the Vancouver CMA, foreign buyers’ share rises from less than 2% for properties built before 1990 to about 6% for those completed since 2010.
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2016/2016-04-07-1100.cfm
—–
Cue media spin in 3-2-1…
FOREIGN BUYERS FLOCKING TO DOWNTOWN
HOUSING MARKET
“The number of foreign investors in the Toronto region’s condo market surged 50 per cent last year, with international buyers flocking to newly built units in the downtown core.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/one-in-10-newer-toronto-condos-owned-by-foreign-buyers-cmhc/article29551058/?service=mobile
#119 Alvina Knows on 04.07.16 at 11:04 pm says “How could you possibly doubt an unemployed, dual-degreed graduate who by his own admission suffered PTSD from studying too hard?
(http://forums.redflagdeals.com/ptsd-engineering-school-675936/#post7931888)”
First – Mark – if you are suffering anxiety/depression, etc, please get some help because that can be pretty debilitating. I know because I do from time to time (not significantly debilitating by any means but a hassle for sure) and have a regimen of swimming, walks, naps, and lots of alone time to relax/unwind when it strikes.
Two things:
1 – If you find working on computers unpleasant, how are you able to post so much?
2 – For someone who has completed two degrees successfully (and simultaneously), how can you get so many concepts fundamentally wrong?
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/ptsd-engineering-school-675936/#post7931888
that thread goes on to cite WalMark as saying that he couldn’t find a job for 7 years after graduating
wow that’s sad.
now I can see why his maths and finances are poor.
WalMark I hope u were able to turn your life around
good luk
“First it was “falling”, then it was “stagnant or falling”, now it’s just “stagnant”. Attaboy, you’re getting there!”
I beg your pardon? There are areas of Toronto that have fallen/stagnated less than others. There’s even a few areas that are up, year over year. And even the definition of “Toronto” and “GTA” is subject to some interpretation as obviously Milton (ie: outskirts of what we’d call the “GTA”) is quite different than housing in downtown Toronto proper. So before you go and accuse me of playing fast and loose with the facts, keep in mind that there’s not a lot of specificity involved here.
He has said that he has “come to a very similar set of conclusions based on independent analysis of independent datasets” regarding his favourite sales mix topic, that should be good enough for anyone.
Ross Kay used serialized sales data from individual houses, a sort of “micro” approach to calculating the impact of the shift of the sales mix. I used higher-level snapshots of aggregated data compared over time to come to the same conclusion. I’ve never met Mr. Kay, and hadn’t even heard of him until recently, but if two separate people, using two separate datasets, and two different methodologies come to the same conclusion, there’s a pretty good chance that the conclusion is valid.
As for the rest of your post, don’t know why you’re trolling.
Even with this crappy house drop by 50%, it will still be out of reach for 95% of the people working in Vancouver.
Then the drop will be larger than 50%. As, over the long term, it is impossible for housing to be out of reach of the population of the working in a large city. Especially in a non-land constrained city like Vancouver.
“If we take the average prices in YVR and divide by the rents (minus taxes and expenses) that would be like the P/E ratio. I am wondering if we are at tech bubble levels yet?”
At the $400k average price, Canada’s housing P/E is calculated at 35 on a comparable taxation basis to corporations. In Vancouver, you can’t even calculate a P/E because “E” is less than zero once all items including depreciation are netted out.
For an asset class that historically only grows its rents (and hence “earnings”) at the rate of inflation (ie: real growth = 0%), this is right in looney tunes territory.
Compare and contrast with the TSX featuring real earnings growth of 2-3%/year historically, nominal earnings growth of 5-7%/year, and a P/E of roughly 14. With most cyclicals primed for significant growth in the future economic recovery.
At least one crash is already happening in Vanc: highly skilled software engineers.
Recruiters are desperate for them which are obviously evaporating.
Who would like to live in such a place: low wages, rain, insane RE and corruption with so much more opportunity elsewhere.
it’s a descendant spiral from here.
“Is it possible, that these mystery Chinese buyers, are in fact, trusts laundering money? This entire bubble was set off by money laundering if so.”
The problem with a money laundering “theory” is that ‘money’ actually would be required to launder. And most of the evidence points to very minimal presence of ‘money’. Just credit.
Would a money launderer take out a mortgage? Probably not. Yet we see that most Vancouver housing units are being bought with large amounts of mortgage credit. Mortgage credit is right off the charts. If money was being laundered, either from domestic or foreign sources, then we would see credit falling against the asset class as houses are sold to cash buyers. The complete opposite of what we actually see.
The whole “Chinese with money” theory, at best, is a rather bizarre, racist/xenophobic, ignorant, and untruthful act of denial. The domestic speculators are completely out of control, whether as owners of RE, or the financial system actors who facilitate such (particularly weakly regulated credit unions and other shadow lenders, as well as the CMHC).
#68 BOOM!
“They will pick a former low light, thus assuring a Clinton victory in November.”
On the contrary.. polls show that John Kasich would easily defeat Clinton.. head to head. All the American people ask is for a viable level-headed alternative.
Re #26:
“Trump blames the Obama regime [trillions spent on foreign policy mistakes, will spend it in North America instead, which will benefit Canada] …. So kind of wonder why all the whining and screwed up faces of pundits on CBC and CTV is fer?”
Easy: Trump is anti free trade (Nafta, tpp etc.) which benefits the establishment, not the working man. And this holds true across the U.S., Canada and Mexico in the case of Nafta (see writer Thomas Frank). And yes, those media outlets look out for the hand that feeds them. Ergo whining and screwed up faces.
Ahh engineering school. We used to say that it could be the toughest four years of your life… or the best seven!
(I did it in six, personally, with a year off to work and get some industrial experience)
Garth, you are underestimating how big this real estate bubble can get. Neither Vancouver nor Toronto are even in the top 20 most expensive cities in the world. Vancouver and Toronto are more livable than most, if not all, of the cities in the top 20. Therefore, they will get more expensive until they join the top 10, where average locals can’t afford detached houses. That implies prices of detached houses (in Vancouver and Toronto) can still double before typical locals can’t afford the mortgage payments. Detached housing will be a luxury for the few (including those who bought before the bubble and haven’t sold), and the middle class will move into apartments permanently.
Sometimes you have to do the work yourself. So I took a trip to exactly the area where the house in today’s post is located.
1) The bet is some chinese is COMING to buy homes, HOWEVER
2) The risk is all being taken by locals who are armchair developers
3) Sold own home at stupid price and are paying a stupid price
Last month, the perfect storm hit, a few chinese printed some large tickets and the sell dumb and pay dumb price activity was very fluid. People are now taking this small data and hoping it will continue. It will not as clearly prices of new builds are coming down, and sooner or later as we see in Hong Kong, the buyer and seller will be 40-50% apart and the waiting game starts, sales slow, prices come down.
So yes, maybe 1) is true, but they 2) are baring all the risk, scooping up the lots and building in hopes of someone coming and locals are caught in the cross currents. Offshore is very very small, however it’s get the largest spotlight. It’s actually good for a select few who have been able to monetize this flow. It will be over in a few months.
Don’t believe MLS, YOU WILL NEVER NEVER SEE THE LARGE PRICE DROP, ONLY THE LARGE PRICE RAISE. It’s a joke, all you need is a rule that removes the fudge factor. This feeds the whole system of reports, etc.
Garth you complain about MSM, yet a simple Globe article about some snakes flipping via assignment caused an uproar.
You want to make an impact beyond the few that come here. Raise your hand and pound the table for 2 things
1) PRICE HISTORY
2) FULL HISTORY TO ANYONE AT ANYTIME
That’s it. You will make your impact to Canada, right or wrong, you would have brought something fair to the system. Don’t waste your time and energy policing racists and idiots.
#2 Randy on 04.07.16 at 5:17 pm
“How are Millennials gonna pay for my entitlements if they are on welfare and trying to pay off their student loans ?”
Baby don’t worry………it’s called deficit spending…..
Can we refer to Trudeau Jr. simply as Epic Weedman? Much more intuitive than T2 for the new readers joining us.
More craziness in the Vancouver burbs:
http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/homebuyers-head-further-afield-to-escape-vancouver-property-prices
Irrational humans. Of the at least four people I know with household incomes up to 200k or more and SFH from Markham down to Leslieville who say they could not afford buying their homes at today’s prices, all have sunk up to 150k in renovations into those overpriced assets. Why? A balanced port remains anathema.
When will it pop? That’s the big question isn’t?
Like Garth and others I thought that would have happened much sooner, that we’d be on the recovery trail by now, rebuilding this economy on more solid footings. But far from it, in some of the largest markets in Canada the bubble is still raging on and in others it’s somewhat stagnating but has not truly popped yet, with the possible exception of Alberta, understandably.
This gives new meaning to the famous Keynes quote “Markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent”
To me this can only mean one thing: This country is even more screwed than I thought before. The longer this madness continues the more structural damages are done to the economy and more painful it will be to get back on track.
I know of many towns in my home province of Quebec where there’s virtually no economy left besides consumption and government infrastructures (all the great jobs are there). Many such places in Ontario as well. The problem is to consume you got to have wealth and governments don’t create wealth, businesses do. The longer money is directed toward government and consumption instead of productive investments the more we become inept economically.
I don’t know if reality will appear with a bang or with creeping poverty. But appear it will and will be uglier than most of us have ever imagined.
Trudeau and Morneau should take advantage of the west coast opportunity. Stanley Park (1000 acres), is under Federal body. Sell $ 1 trillion. Maybe get 25% over asking. Chinese buyers. Liberals can pay some bills, fund there green & marijuana initiatives. Trudeau and Bill, could get a statue together. Plus as a consolation to the Asian investors, Mandarin as the chosen language in the park area. Vancouver would have a true china town. Green/marijuana industry can take off Eh! Eliminate all the infighting with Vancouver residents regarding leashed/unleashed dogs.
PB43
Garth –
Despite all your gloom-dooming, this thing still has plenty of steam.
Canada’s jobless numbers this AM were superb. Big gains in full-time employment, big drop in the rate, way stronger than economists had predicted.
RBC wants your mortgage business:
http://www.rbcroyalbank.com/mortgages/index.html?primetopnavclick=true
Strong job gains, cheap-o mortgages – this thing will keep going for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile your precious US economy continues to sputter, it now being quite unlikely the Fed will raise rates AT ALL this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see rate hike rumours begin in Canada again! That would certainly put a dent in your USA good/Canada bad outlook.
More jobs here is good news, of course. However the US has created over 200,000 positions in 16 of the last 20 months. It remains the engine of global growth. You have a weird definition of ‘sputter.’ — Garth
‘ You have a weird definition of ‘sputter.’ — Garth’
Not really. I’m paid to watch what central banks do. At the start of the year, the Fed had already raised rates once and was widely expected to raise rates four times this year. Remember how strong the USD was in January? CAD near 1.45? Oil in the low 20s? Since then, however, Chairman Yellen has been exceedingly dovish, to the point that the FX market has priced in just two rate hikes and now just one, after her speech in NY last week. And frankly, given the election season starting in earnest later this summer, the Fed has to raise by June or it’s over for this year.
So as I say, with the Fed on the sidelines, the US economy must be sputtering, or the Fed would be raising rates from the current absurdly low levels. QED
You think the US economy is strong. Sadly, you’re in the minority.
Actually, i’m not. — Garth
“At least one crash is already happening in Vanc: highly skilled software engineers.
Recruiters are desperate for them which are obviously evaporating.
“
Yeah, there’s so much “demand” for software engineers that I can, with one hand, count the number of postings for them on the APEGBC “Careers” website.
https://www.apeg.bc.ca/Careers/Career-Listings
Seriously, if you don’t see recruiters looking for people in a venue in which they’re likely to find people, who should take their claims very seriously?
(In fairness, the term “software engineer” has been stretched, albeit illegally, to include people not licensed/licensable as Professional Engineers. However, if employers were ‘desperate’ for talent as some would suggest, you think they’d at least be advertising in all possible venues!)
#29 Quitter
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Completely agree with your assessment of his much more rational it is about house prices and RE investment in a place like Texas versus Vancouver or Toronto.
To live in vancouver one needs to pay this ‘chinese’ premium, which is about $1M.
To live in Toronto, maybe there’s this Vancouver premium of about $500k.
Ethnic Chinese tend to have a very narrow comfort zone, so they congregate tightly, and with speculation, house prices become insane.
Would you pay $4.19 million for this?
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I think HAM is slowly taking Calgary too. In my neighborhood of Varsity I’m still seeing very steady sold signs on houses coming up – so not seeing this slow down.
Is anyone else having the same experience?
This wasn’t you that wrote this Garth?
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/family-finance/young-family-in-toronto-with-rising-six-figure-income-faces-eternal-question-should-they-keep-renting-or-buy-a-house
https://www.apeg.bc.ca/Careers/Career-Listings
now I see why WalMark has been unemployed forever. he’s looking in the wrong places :( btw, he didn’t have ptsd. it was a psych disorder. and not being able to pass the first screen in HR is also a biggie, but that may be related
candidates in tech have it made.
https://www.roberthalf.ca/sites/roberthalf.ca/files/rht-pdfs/robert_half_technology_2016_salary_guide.pdf
http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/wanted+developers+coders+canadas+technology+gold+rush/11815137/story.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/it-jobs-that-pay-over-120000-in-2016-2016-4
caveat. unfortunately those w ptsd or a psych disorder may not be able to find a job. being unemployed during a tech boom is telling :(
@Big Dipper
What Garth said is factually correct. Although as you may have read me state many times here I’m not a big fan of the divisiveness, I’m also not a fan of the “easily offended” crowd. Buck up.
@137 Data- You seem awfully emotional in this post. Did someone implant Lore’s Emotion Chip in your head again?
Not sure if this was mentioned but notice how in the 4.19 million house pic the sky is photoshopped blue, in an otherwise rainy overcast city, and of course filters to make the greens come out happier – lol gotta love the RE industry. But hey someone went for it.
Garth do we know who the buyer was? Likely not cause it was HAM from abroad, and it would just outrage Vancourites more.
Garth to add, when the Harper government embarked on building Canada as a RE economy to lessen the impact of the 2008 GFC, it was part of the agenda to allow foreign capital to support it when the economy no longer would.
This is why it’s so hard to get accurate numbers on foreign money in RE, otherwise if they wanted to they could implement it easily.
We are just now at the crux of the matter and people are suspicious and outraged. And we see headlines like this, but no one is stupid and we know these numbers are understated:
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/4/7/Toronto-home-builder-Numbers-dont-justify-the-witch-hunt-for-foreign-buyers.aspx
Wow what whiners…
***** ATTENTION CRAZY BUYERS *******
PLEASE Come to Ottawa and create a stupidity bubble and increase Home prices to YVR Levels!!
I will gladly sell you my home for 3+ Million!!
***** That is All ******
I wish this stupidity was happening here… I would sell my Lottery ticket and move somewhere where I could have a HUGE house for 500K and park the rest in investments and retire.
All you YVR whiners are either trying to get into the Stupid Overpriced market or are sitting on a pile of cash and not selling.
Either buy somewhere cheaper or cash in and move. I just don’t get it. Let the greater fools waste their money. Don’t join the stupidity.
I don’t care what/where the person is from… if they got a big ass check I would sell.
“This is why it’s so hard to get accurate numbers on foreign money in RE, otherwise if they wanted to they could implement it easily.”
Its not hard at all. The available datasets completely explain the amount of foreign participation in Canada’s RE marketplace — minimal. Data on domestic bank lending and the RE marketplace fully correlates speculation with credit expansion in the Canadian financial system. Realtor-quoted price changes based on sales “averages” over the past 3 years (post-Budget 2013 changes) are entirely explainable, backed up by the data, by a significant shift in the sales mix.
I’m not sure why people are looking for more data. The data already explains what is happening. Even Realtors are willing to go on the record, as “Khalid” from Vancouver did to the Globe and Mail, to admit that there’s an extreme amount of speculation by locals such as himself on credit through his ownership of “15 to 20 properties, primarily for resale”.
So yeah, basically, the people who are hell-bent on blaming the results of Canadian speculators, on “Chinese”, will keep demanding study after study. And gullible governments might actually indulge them. But all of the data needed to prove that “foreign” speculation is not a statistically significant factor in Canada’s RE markets is already known and publicly available.
#156 Gonkman on 04.08.16 at 11:40 am
Wow what whiners…
***** ATTENTION CRAZY BUYERS *******
PLEASE Come to Ottawa and create a stupidity bubble and increase Home prices to YVR Levels!!
I will gladly sell you my home for 3+ Million!!
***** That is All ******
I wish this stupidity was happening here… I would sell my Lottery ticket and move somewhere where I could have a HUGE house for 500K and park the rest in investments and retire.
All you YVR whiners are either trying to get into the Stupid Overpriced market or are sitting on a pile of cash and not selling.
Either buy somewhere cheaper or cash in and move. I just don’t get it. Let the greater fools waste their money. Don’t join the stupidity.
I don’t care what/where the person is from… if they got a big ass check I would sell.
____________________________________
Amen to this. It is time to stop ripping on HAM in YVR and start tearing Canadian YVR homeowners a new one for doing anything other than selling. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to become rich for doing nothing.
Don’t talk about how you’ve got roots in the area, family, schools etc… You can visit, you can commute – most of you lucky bastards could just retire! :)
I’d be retired on a couple hundred acres up north immediately if I could get millions for my place!! Done!
Stop griping and sell, you folks are the luckiest SOB’s in the whole country.
People have stopped thinking about house prices in actual dollars. They only know how to compare them to other recent house prices.
“Oh, 800K? That’s not bad. Houses in such and such cost…” – The thought has become completely divorced from the amount of hours you have to work to make this money + interest. You can look at that bungalow and think “Oh, $4 million? Well it’s a bit steep, but it’s a single digit, and the pic has some nice HDR, and…”
That cat is soooo cuuute.
Stop griping and sell, you folks are the luckiest SOB’s in the whole country.
——————————
lucky, in some ways , but most of us here took a big risk, shoved all our crap in a car somewhere in ontario, and headed west without knowing much about where we would land. we just knew bc/van kicked ass over anywhere else in canada. (i grew up in man/ont/ns/pei) it was always clear to me the rest of the world would clue in soon enough. they are beginning to.
“sell now” more than a few said the same thing to me on this very blog 5-6 years back, since then avg van 2 stry is up a cool mil.
it will take years to slow this ship. no rush. the kid is done high school in 3 years. i expect strong gains till at least then. 1/2 to 1 mil. Land base in van is eroding daily. don’t sell anything with land west of metrotown
already got the acreages paid for. (both within an hour of downtown)
———–
PS: when mark talks about van/tor prices/sales mix he is a disgrace to his family, the engineering community and to all blog dogs. bad mark. sit.
So yeah, basically, the people who are hell-bent on blaming the results of Canadian speculators, on “Chinese”, will keep demanding study after study.
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I hope you’re right sucka! If so, this must be the new meaning of speculation, like playing musical chairs. Specs flipping back and forth to each other.
“But if he did, what weird Americans would wish to move from, say, Chicago (average house price $330,000) to Toronto (average detached $1.2 million), or from Seattle (median price $496,750) to Vancouver ($1.78 million)? Would we want such mental defects?”
I’m one of those weird Americans, that in 2003 left. Forever. What is a 1040? What are those?
There are so many more variables than you describe. First, the USA is big. Each area is very very different. California is not Texas in cost or attitude. Florida is not Texas. Massachusetts is not Seattle. Many northerners, such as myself think very similar to Canadians. In Kansas and Texas, the thinking is very very different from Canada.
In Canada there are certain things that many Canadians just dont understand because they are assumed. Unions. What are those in the USA? If someone wants to do your job for less pay, they can. Meanwhile, in Calgary, someone at Alberta Health Services in management is on a conference call trying to fix something that shouldve been fixed in 1980. Guns. If there is road rage in Calgary, it is similar to a hockey incident in which grown men need skates to move around and gain speed to injury other men in an overpaid industry, these road rage incidents include harsh language, tailgating, and at most a baseball bat. But not guns. You flip someone off in Houston Texas, chances are they will shoot you. Third: Canada is not owned by China. China doesnt call the bank on the USA because USA is a trade partner, otherwise they likely would. Fourth: We dont(yet) have a president such as George W. Bush who not only commanded an illegal War in Iraq(war criminal) simultaneously bankrupting the planet and helping to form ISIS(thanks George!).
As far as housing goes, the house across the street in Calgary NW, bought for around $420K, probably sold close to $490K the list price. So yes houses continue to buy and sell in Calgary. Complain all you want about housing, people buy them. If you want cheap, marry an American, move to Nevada, Texas, or Mississippi.
I wouldn’t mock the buyer of that house just yet. Its not the house but the land they’re paying for. A competent home builder can build a great house on the plot and get a good return.
Remember making fun of this house?
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/02/03/803000/
It sold for $803k, and it was a dump.
The buyer was a contractor – he did a great job of fixing it up, and its worth about $1.1-1.3 million on the open market now. Took about 6 months to do all the work, and he netted about a quarter of a million dollars after paying his sub-contractors and materials.
Here’s what it looks like now:
https://www.google.ca/maps/place/145+galley+ave+toronto/@43.6429758,-79.4467212,3a,75y,159.87h,90t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m4!1sGf7coX4xTn32UttZuEQCug!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x87466ad00f394791!6m1!1e1
“PS: when mark talks about van/tor prices/sales mix he is a disgrace to his family, the engineering community and to all blog dogs. bad mark. sit.”
Ross Kay talks about the sales mix accounting for most of the Realtor-quoted gains in Vancouver. Would you be willing to say such belligerent and uncalled for nonsense to him as well?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvFtTOrNb5E
canada crushes the jobs report. 46000 news jobs. 35000 fulltime.
Doesn’t fit your narrative Garth , buy the damn house people quit wasting your time renting
People should buy based on their finances, not the macroeconomics. What a strange comment. — Garth
@Mark
Come on Mark – you can do better. Do you think that people are going to come over to your basement and ask nicely for the privelege of hiring you…
949 software engineer jobs in bc alone… I can’t imagine how great it is in ON or the US (you do realize you should be able to get a VISA to work down south). Here is the link if you want to get a job!
https://www.bctechjobs.ca/search-jobs?q=software+engineer&location=
John Maynard Keynes once said “the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. The continue meteoric rise in house prices in Vancouver is a testament to this. So while Garth will be right one day, it is impossible to guess when it will correct, or how the prices will go. I honestly thought that the market was going to correct several times over the last few years and advised many to stay out or to cash in and get out of the market. All of them looked at my like I had 3 heads, and stated various reasons why they felt the market would continue its ascent. They are the winners so far in that they have all essentially won the lottery with their homes have risen in value by in some cases well over $1 million dollars. Now, even though I know a day of reckoning will eventually come, I keep my mouth shut as I realize it is a fools game to try and predict when a correction will occur. Oh, and as far as the Chinese buyers are concerned, the truth is while there are speculators participating, everyone who lives in the Vancouver area knows full well “the Chinese are the market” end of story. This talk of the foreign buyers being 2% of the market is complete BS … they buy through relatives, landed immigrants, corporate entities etc. but the money comes from China. Go to any open house on the westside of the city and you will see … I’m not saying it is good or bad, it simply is reality. The smartest investment of all may have been to jump into the housing market, then sell now after the massive run up in prices to cash in on a great tax free gain …
@156 Gonkman and 158 IH GUY-
100% in agreement. That said, maybe it’s a stage o life thing. In my case I am about 6 months away from being eligible to retire from my govment job where I took my and a pension by force (Thanks “Saskatoon”!). In reality I can’t retire just yet because the numbers just don’t add up.
However, if I could get 2-3 mill clear for my house here in Windsor Essex I’d be done in a heartbeat!
Took my “wage and a …..
VANCOUVER — Three British Columbia First Nations have paid nearly half a billion dollars for a prime piece of real estate on the west side of Vancouver.
The Musqueam, Squamish and Tsleil-Waututh nations bought the 15.7-hectare parcel known as the Jericho lands for $480 million.
The property, with panoramic views of English Bay and the North Shore, is adjacent to a 21-hectare area acquired by the three First Nations and the Canada Lands Company in 2014.
Garth do we know who the buyer was? Likely not cause it was HAM from abroad, and it would just outrage Vancourites more.
—
It was Smoking Man, that’s why he is absent lately. With flu. Guess which flu is that? That’s right…
But he is also an alien, not just filthy rich, so it’s OK.
Immigrants never had easy landing in Canada if they are not refugees. Refuge is blessed by sponsors and had it easy because it is poster child for Canadian humanity.
So to use immigrants factor to justify housing prices is baseless
“949 software engineer jobs in bc alone… ”
I did a brief scan through that link you posted. I saw a lot of non-software jobs (ie: “Facilities Coordinator”, “Financial Analyst”, “Sales Application Technician”, “Quality Control Inspector”, “Executive Assistant to the CFO”, “Health and Safety Coordinator”, “Bookkeeper”, “Controller”, “Sheet Metal Technician”…..). And a lot of re-postings by recruiters. So to say “949 software engineering jobs” is wholly and completely inaccurate.
I appreciate your effort, but its not really helpful to have exaggerated numbers thrown out there. Maybe 1 in 20 postings is actually relevant to someone with software engineering qualifications. And I know for a fact that many of those positions, particularly with the public service, or even that major telecom company, are only advertised publicly on account of policy, not a legitimate interest in an external new hire.
@41 jaybee:
yup. It all depends how deep the lot is and how many levels the house has. If big enough, it will be called a “mansion”, even if you can lend your neighbour some salt without getting out of the house. Signs of our times…
@Mark
I think your answer sums up your lack of ability to get a job. Other than the inserted ads, the first 3 pages of results were all software engineering or product/technical support (testing/analysis/design) to some degree. I stopped looking after that.
You have to want to work… to work…
Atlanta Fed downgraded forecast for Q1 GDP to .1%. Seeing that corporate earnings has declined 8% over the last year, is it really any wonder that the probability of further Fed rate hikes have been reduced to one from four? Coupled with the currency war, the urgency for Chinese upper class to get money out of China into “safe” assets like Canadian real estate. Looks like this blog will be posting the same musings for the forseeable future.
@Mark,
seriously? You are a bot, aren’t ya?
Who uses that BC gvnt crap?
So let’s start with the ‘engineering’ crap. Obviously as doctors or lawyers or engineers, software engineers have their specializations… duh
So, searching Indeed (an agregator) – (have you heard about?), I have some numbers for you:
– SQL: an essential skill I get 1k jobs
– Javscript: an essential skill I get 1k jobs
– Java: 1,6k jobs
– .Net: 700
– CSS / html: 600
– C++: 600
The city has (assuming some intercession) easily 5000 open positions just in SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT (http://bit.ly/1MZNIDs).
Thanks for making me wasting my time.
You need some serious help.
#126 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.07.16 at 11:54 pm
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/ptsd-engineering-school-675936/#post7931888
oh dear
WalMark did u manage to get off the mind altering medication? or are u still taking them?
…
Not cool, dude. If this is (or isn’t him), it has nothing to do with this blog or finance. Criticize the ideas, not the person.
@CalgaryRipOff #163 re: “I’m one of those weird Americans, that in 2003 left. Forever. What is a 1040? What are those?”
If you are still American (i.e. did not formally renounce your US citizenship, file your 8398 and pay your exit tax), you still have to file a 1040 every year no matter where you live in the world, no matter what other citizenship you have, even if you have no US income.
It’s called ‘citizenship based taxation’ or ‘place of birth taxation’, a counter intuitive unique to the world policy that USA and only one other country in the world have (the dictatorship Eritrea which the USA hypocritically condemned for trying to enforce citizenship based taxation).
Also, don’t forget those Foreign Bank Account Reports for your local bank accounts that need to be sent to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network in the USA annually. The penalties are 10K per non-willful violation. The willful violations are much nastier.
Aren’t you glad you left the land of the FEE.
#166 Westvan on 04.08.16 at 1:42 pm
canada crushes the jobs report. 46000 news jobs. 35000 fulltime.
Doesn’t fit your narrative Garth , buy the damn house people quit wasting your time renting
People should buy based on their finances, not the macroeconomics. What a strange comment. — Garth
—————
People having the buy/rent debate with themselves should buy, especially in the hot markets, It will only be more expensive next year and there is not a thing coming that is going to stop demand. Vancouver is growing by 35000 people a year ! The gvrd as a whole by 80000, even the rental market has less than one percent vacancy rate. Oil prices took a hammer to the head and prices have barely budged in the Calgary non luxury market…. What does that tell you ? How much do you think 604 could come down when there is no one horse economy to go bust ? Just buy the house you’ll thank yourself later
House-pumping realtor crap. Buy if you can afford it and need it, not because there may be speculative gains. — Garth
piggy bank comic :panama
http://www.vox.com/2016/4/4/11361780/the-panama-papers-cartoon?utm_campaign=alv9n&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
@CalgaryRipOff, sorry if I sounded happy to inform you of bad news. I’m not. It really sucks what USA is doing to millions of ‘US persons’ who call other countries home. I take it since you did not know you were still a US taxpayer that you have also not heard about the FATCA hunt for so-called ‘US tax cheats’ (FATCATs), most of whom are of average income/net worth having no economic ties to the USA, but who are criminals because of their place of birth.
Sorry Garth. Gotta take my opportunities to educate where I can.
PODSHARE
POD-BASED COMMUNITY LIVING,
RENT IS CHEAP, BUT SEX IS BANNED
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/in-pod-based-community-living-rent-is-cheap-but-sex-is-banned?trk_source=popular
#153 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.08.16 at 11:18 am
@Big Dipper
“What Garth said is factually correct. Although as you may have read me state many times here I’m not a big fan of the divisiveness, I’m also not a fan of the “easily offended” crowd. Buck up.”
——————————————
Don’t just repeat the pseudo – legalese, “factually correct”, crap buddy. Garth has expressed his loathing and contempt for the PM at numerous occasion. We got it.
Meanwhile, why did YOU find it necessary to respond?
Offended, or just brown-nosing? I think the latter.
#160 drydock on 04.08.16 at 12:59 pm
“That cat is soooo cuuute.”
Cutest I’ve ever seen……..easy to see why people pay the sums they do to care for their fuzzballs.
Wow! As a south-of-the-border Yankee I’m just in awe that a piece or crap house like that which I wouldn’t pay more than $500K for in NJ (or $150K in Florida) is worth $4 Mill CAD!! Things are truly NUTS up north – maybe all that cold has frozen people’s brains! Then again, something similar happened down here not so long ago….I guess people never learn!