Being human

1STRONG

The enemy of success is human nature. We buy high, sell low and believe realtors. Stuff we hear from peers or (the ultimate authority) family carries more weight than experts who are but a Google away. Our perception of things is coloured by emotion, and often wrong.

To wit. ‘Investors’ sucking up multiple condo units in the country’s two most inflated markets. CMHC says a quarter of 42,000 buyers survey have bought more than two concrete boxes, while at least 10% have snapped a minimum of three. Of course, nobody can buy a condo in 416 or YVR these days, at these prices, and collect enough rent to cover costs. The only possible hope is capital appreciation – enough of it to overcome commission and transfer taxes. Good luck with that.

But it gets worse. Nik Nanos’ latest survey found 33.1% of Canadians expect the economy will deteriorate  (24.7% believe it’ll get better), but almost 39% of us expect real estate prices to climb. It’s now the highest degree of housing optimism since the end of 2014 – and comes as the average house price crosses the $500,000 mark for the first time.

Why? One word. Millennials. Over eighty-five per cent of these poor, young things are convinced the best possible investment is a house.

We know why. A 24-year-old who became sentient seven years ago has known nothing but advancing real estate values and plunging money costs. It’s the new normal. People line up to buy apartments not yet built. House-horny parents tell them renting is throwing money away. Financial illiteracy is rampant. Nobody trusts financial markets, corps or central banks. Then along come politicians saying the rich will pay more so they can pay less and there may even be an annual income for all – while the government leads by example, spending vastly more than it collects. What else are they supposed to think?

So Nik found 83% of people don’t believe real estate can, or will, go down. That should scare you. Two reasons.

First, it means more upwards pressure in the key markets over the next few months. It’s now evident the mortgage changes Bill (“Charge it”) Morneau brought in did diddly to halt the market’s advance. Boosting down payment requirements on houses costing between $500,000 and a million ended up being a total non-event, defeated largely by private lenders and the Bank of Mom. If anything, anticipation of the late-February change propelled sales, as did a largely non-existent winter.

Most people, and virtually all of the moist ones, don’t think interest rates can rise (ever), nor do a majority of them consider mortgages to be debt. They’re just another form of rent, but one your parents approve of. Besides, houses always go up, so why wouldn’t you borrow as much as any goofy banker will give you?

The evidence of this insanity is with us daily, now. Average prices have catapulted higher by 15-23% in our two bubble cities at the same time commodity values have tanked and wage growth has stalled. The increase in debt shows where the bulk of the capital is coming from. The transfer of wealth from equity to debt to stunning. Savings are being depleted, RRSPs cashed in and investments deferred, all so people can throw available capital into a single asset class, now more leveraged than ever.

The second reason this should scare you? Most people usually err in their perceptions, then react emotionally. Thus, Nortel went from $120 to zero. Bre-X went from nothing to $286 a share, to nothing. Properties in Fort Mac have lost 40% of their value in two years because they were inflated by emotion, now felled by reality. Gold soared to $1,900 on speculation and mass buying in 2011 and is 36% lower. Oil was $140 a barrel nine years ago and now has a good day when it hits $36. The TSX lost 55% of its value in 2009, after a decade-long run had sucked billions into maple. It’s a safe bet you’ll be able to add bungalows in East Van and slanty semis in Leslieville to that list in the years to come.

Does this mean only fools would buy now?

Not in some markets, and not anywhere if they understand and accept the risks, or aren’t putting too much of their net worth into one, swollen asset. I own real estate. My last purchase was three months ago. But it was a distressed buy, a third below list price. There were no bidding wars, no bully offers, no competition. Just value.

Well, you may have noticed I’m no Millennial (despite the stubble and six pack abs). My world view was formed over years of boom and bust. That’s produced a cynical fossil who understands no asset class in history has ever risen without falling, and human nature has never evolved. Guys like me learned long ago it’s never different this time. Some of us didn’t learn to shut up about it, though.

191 comments ↓

#1 powder_hound86 on 04.06.16 at 6:38 pm

> Guys like me learned long ago it’s never different this time. Some of us didn’t learn to shut up about it, though.

Except you think its different this time in US equities

Not different. The same. We are not near a top. — Garth

#2 Jimmy on 04.06.16 at 6:46 pm

FIRST!

#3 It is what it is on 04.06.16 at 6:47 pm

It’s better this way.

Gradual recognition makes the transitions smoother, less dramatic.

#4 TRUMP on 04.06.16 at 6:47 pm

Let the house hornys crash and burn……live and learn !!

In the meantime we need more more making ideas.

Got any??

#5 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 04.06.16 at 6:48 pm

R.I.P. Hagg

#6 Ok on 04.06.16 at 6:49 pm

Over 25,000 NET new cars were added to metro Vancouver postal codes as per ICBC.

Of course people expect prices to go higher. People coming from all over to spend part of their time in this resort city.

#7 Ok on 04.06.16 at 6:51 pm

And you bought 3 months ago.

All while telling people a correction is coming.

Buy anytime you wish, at the right price and in balance with your net worth. — Garth

#8 JG on 04.06.16 at 6:53 pm

daughter and hubby just bought their first home in Montreal.

good jobs (Google and McGill),,100k/year total income. 28years old. One young child.

They bought a 4 bed 2 bath , with fully finished basement and inground heated pool with waterfall feature for $290k. 20 years old, on a cul-de-sac.

The dream is still alive in some parts of the country where you dont have to buy at 9 times income.

#9 Slamballs on 04.06.16 at 6:53 pm

FIRST!

#10 Old stock Canadian on 04.06.16 at 6:55 pm

People line up to buy apartments not yet built. Now it spills into automobile as well. The world is full of money, except in the Turner’s blog.
http://driving.ca/tesla/model-s/auto-news/news/motor-mouth-why-im-not-drinking-the-tesla-kool-aid-just-yet
It was also, for those of us who trumpet reason over emotion, a little disturbing. Lining up for three days to buy a car? Seriously? For a car you might not take delivery of for four years? While others saw “a reinvigorated future for electric vehicles” and the long-predicted move to profitability for Tesla, what I saw, at least judging by the blissed-out visages of the show’s attendees, was a Creflo A. Dollar revival meeting — “Hallelujah, glory be to God” — giving thanks to the 200,000 acolytes he beseeched to buy him a private jet.

#11 IKnow on 04.06.16 at 6:55 pm

Buy real estates only based on ‘value’?

So where is ‘location’ or that PC incorrect phase ‘ethnic concentration’ embedded in the definition of ‘value’?

#12 AB Boxster on 04.06.16 at 6:56 pm


CMHC says a quarter of 42,000 buyers survey have bought more than two concrete boxes, while at least 10% have snapped a minimum of three.

OK. That confirms it.
Canadian home buyers are certifiably nuts.

#13 hope & ruin on 04.06.16 at 6:58 pm

House-horny parents tell them renting is throwing money away. Financial illiteracy is rampant.
_______________________________________

When my friend Sean was telling me about the bidding war he’s been losing, I asked him if he would rent for a year or till the market cools in the winter, he lives at home @ 27. He looked at me like I was suggesting he join a tribe of leprosy-infected nomads. Like this was the most horrifying, idiotic thing anybody could ever say.

I know the poor guy has saved a bundle, at LEAST $150k, living at home. Now all those disciplined years of saving and not getting laid are going to be wasted on a 30 year anchor to a suburb in the GTA. so sad, RIP Sean’s sex life.

#14 Lulu on 04.06.16 at 7:01 pm

I’ll still buying but not in the GTA rather in Simcoe County, further north if job is not tie to the city, otherwise I’ll just rent till the burst coming, It’s just so insane right now out there, Richmond Hill has the highest jump 27 something percent more than a year ago, just blow my eyes out, good luck with those gonna buy in the future. Van even more crazier, with less people living there and annual income less than Toronto, not sure how it sustained.

#15 Marco on 04.06.16 at 7:01 pm

Which cities, in your opinion, are good buys today? Obviously not Van and Toronto…but where?

#16 Vancouvermom on 04.06.16 at 7:01 pm

Great blog Garth. Love your wisdom and knowledge

#17 tundra pete on 04.06.16 at 7:03 pm

You can tell almost anyone that there are 653 trllion stars in the sky and they will simply believe you. Tell the same ones that the paint on that bench in front of them is wet and they will have to touch it to believe you.

Even with google, I can still tell someone, even a millenial something and they won’t even check, just believe it.

#18 Cory on 04.06.16 at 7:03 pm

“Nortel went from $120 to zero. Bre-X went from nothing to $286 a share, to nothing. Properties in Fort Mac have lost 40% of their value in two years because they were inflated by emotion, now felled by reality. Gold soared to $1,900 on speculation and mass buying in 2011 and is 36% lower. Oil was $140 a barrel nine years ago and now has a good day when it hits $36. The TSX lost 55% of its value in 2009, after a decade-long run had sucked billions into maple”

agreed 100%. the old saying what goes up must come down applies every time. However, the difference is that with gold, oil, and the markets in general is that they’re uncontrollable due to too many participants who have different ideas/agenda at the same or different times. Not sure if I explained that well or not. In terms of real estate, this is in country, controlled in various ways by all levels of government through policy, regulations, laws, etc. and usually controlled to influence real estate to the upside. Property taxes are market based (here) for example, why wouldn’t government want real estate prices to go up forever? the revenues are significant. CMHC, low interest rates, loose lending policies, the need to present an illusion to the masses for the desired wealth effect, are all controlled by politicians/government. Add to this those in real estate who openly lie and make false claims collect, process, and distribute all data and statistics. Obviously the will is not there to end the party b anyone. The party can only really end by one of two ways. Interest rate rise, or tightening policies around real estate to prevent such stupidity from occurring. Neither are present so it will keep going. It could be years before it ends if ever since governments can play with policy whatever way they want to go and if one looks at BC and their arrogance/stupidity, the government is fully onside with the party, obviously. I guess the Feds could correct this nonsense but obviously there is no will to do that either. Regardless, the party will go on and on at any expense. When it ends, the blame game will begin and politicians will come out without a scratch. I tend to lean toward government bailing out these dummies though. I wouldn’t doubt it at all so of course the responsible, once again, are thrown aside to satisfy selfish irresponsible people.

To let this go on is irresponsible and is only for political power. In other words, selfishness and greed. The good of the country is never at the forefront. Nonetheless, it will go on of course, as wrong as it is.

#19 Julia on 04.06.16 at 7:08 pm

#8 JG
Can’t be in Montreal, has to be somewhere in the suburbs.

#20 Squidly77 on 04.06.16 at 7:10 pm

http://www.wecanlend.com/lending-guidelines/

#21 An honest realtor on 04.06.16 at 7:12 pm

More doom and gloom, yet this year and last year had terrific gains, and so will 2017 and 2018 and 2019. It is so obvious if you actually understand our real estate market and the dynamics driving it.

In reality, I feel so sorry for people who have been buying this ‘real estate bubble’ nonsense since 2008 in Canada, sitting on the sidelines.

Their opportunity cost is already wrecking their financial lives. Many will now never be able to own in Canada’s major city, shutting them out as well from the country’s best jobs which are there.

Realtors have helped, really helped, thousands build a nest egg as well as to settle in Toronto and enjoy such a liveable city.

To all the doomers, how can you live with yourselves? You have cost so many people so much. Shame on you and your envious duplicity.

I know I have helped hundreds of people become wealthier. The doomers only enable people to become poorer and more bitter.

#22 Squish on 04.06.16 at 7:15 pm

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/reo/5526135059.html

Sell me your parents’ house, kids!

#23 Paul on 04.06.16 at 7:15 pm

Excellent blog post today.
I work with a bunch of millennials and it’s scary how financial illiterate they are. Ever week I get a request for an employment letter from a 24 year old with an experimental haircut looking for a mortgage for a condo in the 905. Absolutely no concept that prices can do anything but rise – it’s like a weird cult.

A housing crash will put an anchor around their necks for the next 10 years. Every day I’m looking for a sober voice in government who can take a real action to prevent this train wreck from happening but nada.

#24 Damifino on 04.06.16 at 7:19 pm

“why wouldn’t you borrow as much as any goofy banker will give you?”
—————————

Tell me how a banker is now allowed to be goofy?

When I was in my twenties, bankers were the most miserable sourpusses in the universe. They were tight as the bark on a tree with money.

Banks opened only on weekdays from 9 to 3 PM. They stayed open until six on Friday night as a special favor to working people who had to rush in and line up for a chance to cash their paychecks.

Times have changed some…

#25 Ken on 04.06.16 at 7:20 pm

I think some buyers are starting to realize the madness and maybe, just maybe, a slowing in purchasing. That hasn’t stopped sellers/realtors asking for the moon. We have three home for sale in our neighborhood in Vancouver West. One hasn’t sold in a month. The second was listed in November, taken off the market in December, and now listed over a month at a price higher that than the initial. The third was listed over the summer with a few price reductions totalling 300,000 into the fall before being taken off the market. Now it is re-listed for over a month higher than the initial price! And don’t expect any of this to be captured in real estate stats including days on the market

#26 Bonhomme Carnaval on 04.06.16 at 7:20 pm

@ #8 JG on 04.06.16 at 6:53 pm

Can you please provide the name of the neighborhood?

I’m in Montreal proper, and I can tell you that does not exist within the city (island) limits.

I does however exist in Vaudreuil-Dorion about 40Km west of Down Town. Must cross a (small) bridge to get on the island, and limited commuter train service—mornings and evenings, no weekends.

Lastly, with a key (busiest) highway/express-way interchange slated for demolition and reconstruction over the next 5 years (if we’re lucky), good luck with the epic traffic jams.

Kindly provide more info/data.

Thanks

#27 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.16 at 7:21 pm

I was working in a mechanical plant the other day that is undergoing a huge upgrade. The lunchroom was full of trades. Most making minimum 80k per annum. More with OT, shift differential, etc. The conversation turned to the real estate market in YVR after one of the younger guys mentioned he was bidding on a condo.
A surprising majority of the older guys said, “It’ll never go down” and the younger ones were bobbing their heads in agreement. I said, ” These prices are ridiculous and unsustainable. Remember the early 80’s when the bottom fell out?”

Crickets.

#28 james on 04.06.16 at 7:22 pm

#8

“daughter and hubby just bought their first home in Montreal. good jobs (Google and McGill),100k/year total income.”

Tenure track faculty at McGill? Administration? Non-faculty staff at Canadian Universities are in a bubble, to be honest. They have exploded in number in the last 15 years, and there are likely cutbacks coming. There’s a good article in this month’s Walrus on the topic.

As for Google, our Montreal office is tiny. We tend to open and close tiny offices, so I wouldn’t guarantee that Montreal will stay put. Any office with sales staff and few engineers (e.g., Toronto) is considered second or third tier. The key offices are our large engineering offices, such as Mountain View and Zurich. Those are untouchable.

Job security at Google is also not guaranteed. When a company has been on a hiring binge, ramping its headcount exponentially, you can bet there is a reduction looming. As Garth says, nothing goes up monotonically forever.

Barring government workers, it is not wise to bet that one’s job is permanent. It helps to have a couple of revenue options, including passive revenue.

Not saying that your relatives are doing badly, but with the Canadian economy the way it is, I hope they are stuffing money into savings instead of into a house. Their home is 3x income, which is the traditional target, so I hope they are saving a whack of their income.

#29 ScaryInSquamish on 04.06.16 at 7:23 pm

Squamish and Britannia Beach are scaring the heck out of me.

This listing captures the problem quite well:
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16783213/642-LOWER-CRESCENT-Britannia-Beach-British-Columbia-V0N1J0

First:
“Minutes from downtown Vancouver and Squamish, this area is a commuter’s dream.”

WHAT? I guess if by minutes, you mean “60 minutes” then that is a valid statement…. Personally, spending two hours (and 120 km!) every day in a car is not exactly a “dream”.

Second:
“Now is the time to buy in Britannia Beach as there are a lot of big plans for the area in the near future.”

There certainly are a lot of plans – as in hundreds of new units that could come online in that neighbourhood from a huge new development. If we hit a bump in the housing cycle, the developer will drop prices before they are listed and keep them soft – as long as they can turn any profit. An old house on a 5300 sq ft lot may have a hard time maintaining or increasing in value when brand new shiny houses are being built by the dozens or hundreds within walking distance of this listing. And that doesn’t count the additional development plans up in Squamish.

Third: Price explosion. This place was assessed in 2015 at $416 and in 2014 at $308 which is a crazy enough amount of inflation. It is now listed at twice the assessed value at $828. Is this happening anywhere else in Canada (houses being listed at 200% of assessed?) We’re less than one year from the last assessment date!

Fourth: Demographics. I suspect that many of the people buying in Squamish/Britannia Beach are millennials with young families that want a place to raise some kids. They are getting fully mortgaged to take on these places. The rapid increase in prices means that you now have a serious split – a large group of people that can profit as long as they sell at any price above some small number (let’s call it $400k) and a small group of new entrants who can’t sell for less than $800k or they will be underwater. That is a trap if I have ever seen one!

Fifth: History. Look into what happened in the Sea to Sky region in 2008. The recession hit that entire region hard and multiple developments ran into serious problems – despite the Olympics and the new highway. It will get hit hard again when we hit the next down cycle.

#30 waiting on the westcoast on 04.06.16 at 7:26 pm

So I met with an entrepreneur recently who is starting a new company. He sold his previous one for low 8 figures.

During the time he was building his first company, he was too poor to buy but in 2011, he was suddenly flush. He bought a house and sold it late year for 50% more than he paid.

I asked him why he sold since he didn’t need the money. He said it was nuts that it was valued so high and he thought it was time to monetize. He couldn’t believe the value and that it is continuing to increase.

He rents on the Westside in Vancouver now and, like me, is waiting…

#31 Grey Dog on 04.06.16 at 7:26 pm

Those were the days my friend, we thought they’d never end…I specifically remember a dinner in Ottawa after a couple days of meetings…my husband’s associate at this meeting mentioned he had 2 million$Nortel (Nortel employee) WOW I thought….how did the story end? Unfortunately he is deceased but his wife continues to live comfortably. Obviously he bailed in time. I never saw stock as wallpaper anywhere in their home.

#32 Candy Halson on 04.06.16 at 7:28 pm

Canada 30 year bond was 9.07% in 1994 and down, down it goes and how low nobody knows.

Canada 30 year bond is now 1.96% which is 4.62 times less. Compound in is much worse. One dollar would be $13.525 in 30 years at 9.07% now it is only $1.701.

Cheap money and high real estate prices and savers, fixed income investors can pay big time for another 22 years.

This is what central banks, banks, other financial institutions, governments are doing and just happy as can be.

Let the losers pay for our debt addiction and debt world.

#33 Frank on 04.06.16 at 7:29 pm

enough of it to overcome commission and transfer taxes. Good luck with that.

Except for the past decade of course…..

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.16 at 7:35 pm

@#251 Your Nuts
“The players in the game of capitalism did not start from equal positions. Those who took more prior to the enactment of the current rules of the game have in many cases kept it. Now the rest of us would like it back….”
*******************************************
Fair enough.
After YOU figure out how to calculate that hypothetical number how’s about figuring out how much of MY tax dollars I deserve back from Federal, Provincial and municipal politicians that pissed it away on “pet projects”, “payback schemes to lobbyists”, corruption, and on and on and on.
Its good to know everything is so black and white in your economic nirvana.
Capitalism bad. Socialism good
Delusional AND naive.

Time for another beer.

#35 Panhead on 04.06.16 at 7:35 pm

#13 hope & ruin on 04.06.16 at 6:58 pm
From what I’ve read here on this pathetic blog … out here in 604land millenials can’t get laid without owning … must be opposite east of the rockies. Good luck to Sean though, sounds like he’s gonna need it …

#36 sockeye sam on 04.06.16 at 7:37 pm

One million ten thousand over asking, INSANE!!!

Just got a knock on the door. It was a realtor handing out his card and informing me the open house I visited on the weekend over hear in Dunbar asking $3,188,000.00
sold for $4,190,000.00. I asked him where the buyers were from he said, “MAINLAND CHINA”. Sold in two days.Can’t provide photo any longer, realtor took it off site. 44 x 120 lot

#37 dick_cockschott on 04.06.16 at 7:37 pm

Yo JG – Your offspring may be working in Montreal at fancy downtown addresses, but it sounds like they are living and commuting to a soulless cul-de sac in RDP or Blainville. Everything has its price.

#38 Hairhead on 04.06.16 at 7:40 pm

Hi Gareth, long-time reader, old-time lefty here, almost a wrinkly now.

Why would I read your blog then? Because 80% of the answer to most life questions is in the numbers. And you run the numbers for us. Over and over, patiently explaining to the dunderheads, young and old, how to measure the value and risk of different kinds of investment at different times of your life at different levels of income.

Of course that begs the question, “What’s the other 20% of the answer?” The other 20% is your world-view; I won’t get into that here because you and I have disagreements, and I don’t want to make your blog disagreeable enough for you to stop writing.

As for my situation. I rent on the West side of Vancouver, an older 4 BR bungalow built to ’50’s nuclear-war-survival standards (not kidding there — the workroom downstairs is 6 sides of fine concrete, and the door needs air holes to close), which wife and I need because we each have a home business in one of the BR’s. Anyway, we live in the last bungalow on the block. Of the twelve neighbours whose doors I knocked on, 10 speak Mandarin Chinese. 3 – 4 times a week realtors knock on the door — the last one shrieked at me in badly-accented English, “My client at your back (across the back alley) want to buy your house for her children in Hong Kong. We give you 3.5 million!”

I said, “Call me back when it’s 5 million.” I expect her back pretty soon. We live in interesting times, at least in Vancouver.

I know that as a renter I’m living on borrowed time, but aren’t we all?

#39 Francis on 04.06.16 at 7:44 pm

Does Fort McMurray at -40% sound like a great opportunity to buy up here?

#40 Brian Ripley on 04.06.16 at 7:46 pm

“But it was a distressed buy, a third below list price” Garth

Calgary housing prices are clearly in a downtrend:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

Average prices down from their peaks:
-6.2% SFDs
-10.3 T-Houses
-15% Condos

Are they a value proposition yet?

Not if earnings count:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

In Alberta, earnings are down only 4% since their peak in Oct 2014

StatsCan data are 2 months lagging, so Q3 should inform if that value proposition is worth a bid.

#41 The Spectre on 04.06.16 at 7:49 pm

We buy high, sell low – Garth.

Garth, don’t you think the stock market is also over valuated? Or we should continue investing?

#42 mike from Mtl on 04.06.16 at 7:49 pm

#18 Julia on 04.06.16 at 7:08 pm
#8 JG
Can’t be in Montreal, has to be somewhere in the suburbs.
=====================================

Correct. On the island proper, free hold, you’re probably in the range of upper 300s (crappy 50s bungalows) to 500.

#43 Terrence on 04.06.16 at 7:53 pm

Imagine if they raise interest rates, home sales would go thru the roof for a little while at least! In any market there is a build up ,a spike ,then the enevitable crash, good fortune to all of those wise enough to take profits along the way! This gravy train will end in the next few years! Long time fan of your work & I truly respect your view , party on GARTH!

#44 Doug t on 04.06.16 at 7:59 pm

I don’t blame the so called millenials so much as the onslaught of BS pushed in advertising by realtors, banks, mortgage groups and developers. The koolaid looks tasty and everyone is drinking it so others grab a glass and suck it up. Next thing you know all the scum screaming for you to BUY have disappeared like a “freedom fifty five” commercial and your property is tankin

#45 MSM-Free Zone on 04.06.16 at 8:01 pm

“….Thus, Nortel went from $120 to zero. Bre-X went from nothing to $286 a share, to nothing……

“….Nobody trusts financial markets, corps or central banks…..”

__________________________

The behaviour of both CEO’s of the first line above completely justify the perception of the second line above.

#46 Paully on 04.06.16 at 8:05 pm

Garth, would you please share roughly where you made your recent real estate purchase? Renting here in the middle of the insane 416, I would like to know how far I would have to move to find more reasonable “Garth Approved” real estate.

A commercial-residential property 45 minutes north of downtown Toronto that I reference in the link on this site’s home page. — Garth

#47 Linda on 04.06.16 at 8:10 pm

They may be moist & innocent, but Millennials may have a point regarding interest rates. An aging society seems to have a flattening effect on economic activity & there appears to be some influence regarding interest rates as well. Japan has had an ever growing aging population for quite a long time. As per the World Bank, Japan’s over 65 percentage of the entire population is now 26% as of 2015. The Bank of Japan happens to have a nice little chart showing the interest rate in Japan from 1972 to 2016. Average interest over that time period is 2.99%. The highest point was in December 1973 when rates were at 9%; the lowest point thus far was -0.10% in January 2016.

IF an aging population corresponds with low interest rates, given that Canada is expected to have 30% or more of its population over the age of 65 by 2050 I’d say low rates in the long term may well occur. The USA is not predicted to have such a large percentage of aged by 2050, but they still are expected to be in the 20% plus range by then. Best invest in age related stocks, it is obviously going to be a growth industry.

#48 Damifino on 04.06.16 at 8:11 pm

#17 Cory

“why wouldn’t government want real estate prices to go up forever?”

You’re just not getting are you, Cory?

It isn’t the ‘going up’ that’s the problem, its the ‘rate of going up’. Look at the first derivative. There be dragons! Take another gander at the graph Garth included two nights ago . That should help.

Hey, you’re not a liberal arts major are you? You did take some introductory calculus, I hope. It will really come in handy when you’re trying to make sense of the Real Estate postmortem.

#49 sockeye sam on 04.06.16 at 8:12 pm

#37 Hairhead
I’m in your hood. I know ,insane! In the twenty six years I’ve lived in this house in Dunbar I have never seen anything this crazy. They are pounding on doors almost begging me to sell.I’m asking why all of a sudden are the Chinese in such a rush to buy, one guy replied “because it’s crazy in China now”. What does that mean? I have no idea.

#50 JO on 04.06.16 at 8:13 pm

Hey Garth what general area did you buy in 3 months ago ?
I can’t believe the madness in hand GTA
Need to move soon as we ha ev2 young ones and are running out of room and refuse to pay 750 k for a dump in Mississauga

JO

#51 amazon girl on 04.06.16 at 8:17 pm

I am worried smoking man are you felling better?
where are you?

#52 mishuko on 04.06.16 at 8:26 pm

hey if you never shut up that’s just amazing for us blog dogs. atleast one’s that understand where you’re coming from and keep an open mind.

it’s funny my buddies think I’m a real estate bear. I sort of am at this time in Toronto (especially the burbs) but I tell them it’s not that I wouldn’t own property. it’s just not the right time for me.

#53 sue on 04.06.16 at 8:27 pm

Great photo Garth! Its not mentioned enough, some of us are less “vocal” than others, but you are truly appreciated. Lets hope the nutbars are getting some fresh air tonite so you have less to screen!
Thank You!

#54 not 1st on 04.06.16 at 8:28 pm

Hey millenials, the boomers are just waiting to dump a little ole pile of D.E.B.T. on you while they skip merrily on to their golden plated years.

Along with T2 and you are buried for life.

#55 North Burnaby on 04.06.16 at 8:29 pm

Don’t forget to blame Gartho when you finally get priced out of the condo market

#56 preet89 on 04.06.16 at 8:29 pm

It’s hard to bite my tongue reading the misconceptions some people have of my generation.

It IS normal to pre-buy things now – it is the new normal (phones, cars, homes…) Our generation shops on-line. Not in some antiquated square box store unless it’s a last resort.

Click, buy, wait, receive. That’s the normal for today and moving forward. AMAZON.COM – has anyone over 40 heard of that company?

It is too bad that oldies still cling to the past. I do have a question for the oldies. Did you think our way when you were in your 20’s when your “oldies” at the time said that colour TV’s, VCR’s, Records would never catch on?

Now you look back and see that you were right when trying to tell the oldies of the day that technology was changing.

#57 BOOM! on 04.06.16 at 8:29 pm

I do get a chuckle over the delusional prices in the moldy city, and the Big Smoke. If you own there, you can cash out anytime then, now, maybe even later at the top…but, not forever. Situations always change faster than all people can react. Don’t believe me? Ever seen a car wreck, my point.

Is the US market overvalued? When it goes down, maybe yes, when it goes up, probably not. I try to buy after a prolonged drop, and sell after a run skyward. Does it always work? No, what does?

Would be sort of fun to see property values here zoom upward, but would take present value X 18 to get to your nosebleed cities, not gonna happen.

Besides who wants to pay property taxes on THAT? There would be no money left for necessities like booze & cigarettes! What kind of zombie life is that???

#58 Cottingham a bargain on 04.06.16 at 8:34 pm

Is no one curious to know where and what RE Garth bought recently for good value as he mentions?

Ok, I’ll ask. Please tell us dear host where and what so that we may partake( and possibly drive your value higher ) ?

#59 not 1st on 04.06.16 at 8:36 pm

#54 preet89 on 04.06.16 at 8:29 pm

—-

Awww, so cute and clueless

#60 Granny on 04.06.16 at 8:38 pm

In the Toronto Star this week, Gail van O has tried to spell it out to the kiddies.
Despite what [email protected] TB says you can afford, you should spend no more than 35% of your netincome on shelter. That 35% should include overhead such as taxes, condo fees and a repair slush fund and what is left over is what is left over is what you can afford for a mortgage.
Don’t suppose that the kiddies will be any more likely to listen to her than they are to you.

#61 Cory on 04.06.16 at 8:38 pm

#46 Damifino

Learn to read before trying to show me how superior you are.

#62 Let's Get House Horny on 04.06.16 at 8:47 pm

#20 An honest realtor

Lol – nice bit of fear mongering there sport !

Yeah, just cast your common sense to the four winds and jump in and buy with both hands.

FOMO – buy now or spend the rest of your life living in regret about your poor decisions – great advice not.

#63 ed on 04.06.16 at 8:51 pm

The comments here are the best proof that RE is pure emotion. Cave ab homine unius libri.

#64 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 04.06.16 at 9:06 pm

A commercial-residential property 45 minutes north of downtown Toronto that I reference in the link on this site’s home page. — Garth
_____________________________________________

45 minutes north of downtown. Would that be rush hour, weekend traffic or what? Why not use kilometres to describe distance? if it is south of Barrie, its a bubble.

#65 My Wife Loves Garth on 04.06.16 at 9:07 pm

My mom was almost in tears when I decided to sell the house last year.

I quietly pocketed a handsome once in a lifetime chunk of non taxable cash and invested accordingly. I’m now living mortgage and debt free with a fat portfolio. (Thanks for the advice Garth!)

Conversely, my newly married younger brother is transferring his entire 25k RRSP life savings as a first time buyer into a 3 bedroom stacked townhouse in Oshawa. A grossly overpriced matchbox where you can shower and cook at the same time.

Mom is happily donating closing costs and any shortfall necessary to get baby bro in his new crib. She is excited (and proud) that he is finally “getting in the market”.

I told her he was taking on a huge risk and that they should seriously consider the ramifications of taking on such a liability. Mom said to me “you don’t know what your talking about… house prices ALWAYS go up”

Family gatherings should be interesting.

#66 Gregor Samsa on 04.06.16 at 9:09 pm

#10 Old stock Canadian
> The world is full of money, except in the Turner’s blog.

The world is NOT full of money, it’s full of debt, or the false appearance of money. And eventually we will choke on it.

I live debt free, and I don’t think I will ever take on any debt, not even a mortgage, because being debt free has been the greatest gift I’ve ever given myself. Jobs have turned to shit on me, so I just quit and walked away. Your average debt slave would be stuck there, suffering for the next 20 years ruining their life. I’ve been able to travel extensively, see the world, and experience things because I didn’t have a debt ball at home dragging me down. If I decided tomorrow that I wanted to move to Tibet and meditate for a year, I could be gone in a week if I really wanted to (personal relationships aside, which is why I wouldn’t do it). I live in the highest rent area of my city for a mere fraction of the housing value. I look out my window at a condo listed on MLS at $800,000 with condo fees that exceed my rent!

Slavery = debt. Canadians will learn this, eventually.

#67 genbizx on 04.06.16 at 9:21 pm

# 20 HONEST REALTOR…

You are part of a racket and the only person you are helping is yourself. Of course you will make money on all of this but don’t come here with this crap about helping people. Funny that you think saddling people with debt is helpful. We need homes but the costs need to be in line with economic fundamentals or there will be a reaction in markets. This has always been the case and will continue to be. Doesn’t matter when or how or the nature of the reaction. It will come. If we are not doing things to encourage real investment, innovation, job creation, then the real estate market will react accordingly. And you won’t care much because you can “earn” your money either way.

#68 JSS on 04.06.16 at 9:26 pm

Hey, where is Mark these days?

#69 Franco on 04.06.16 at 9:35 pm

Did you all miss me? Words of wisdom, look for a house, if you need one, and when you find the right one that is priced right, buy.

#70 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.06.16 at 9:37 pm

Average prices have catapulted higher by 15-23% in our two bubble cities …

this can’t be good for YVR and YYZ. the reckoning will be baaaaaaad

#71 RayofLight on 04.06.16 at 9:45 pm

When I was very young, my family once went to a park that had a suspension bridge over water. I am now a retired engineer, and I have been trying to locate that bridge from my boyhood memory. Thank you Garth, I found it in Google Maps, thanks to your references. I intend to fire up the” Wing’”, and revisit it sometime this summer.

#72 genbizx on 04.06.16 at 9:49 pm

Preet 89 – #55

I do remember being in my 20’s. I thought I was smart. I remember thinking I had lots figured out. Sounded a lot like you. Thinking my view and perspective was actually original and not something that had been fed to me by careful marketing and manipulation and just being like lots of people around me (the smart, socially conscious, advanced ones of course) Someday you’ll look at people younger than you and get it. (and find their arrogance either annoying or cute in a younger brother kind of way) You’ll see that the game changes when you get older. You’ll realize that a few new tech gadgets and some seemingly big advances really didn’t change much and that many things you thought were important just aren’t.

#73 tops on 04.06.16 at 9:50 pm

#1 powder_hound86 on 04.06.16 at 6:38 pm

> Guys like me learned long ago it’s never different this time. Some of us didn’t learn to shut up about it, though.

Except you think its different this time in US equities

Not different. The same. We are not near a top. — Garth

Any particular evidence to share?

Plenty of counter-arguments:

http://www.businessinsider.com/debt-bubble-is-bursting-and-theres-nowhere-to-hide-2016-4

Right now there’s tons of leverage in the system. A lot of people have borrowed a lot of money. So, when something goes wrong, and it will, it will result in dramatic effects to the downside. The coming avalanche will wipe out a lot of people who can’t afford a 70%, 80%, or 90% drop.

Let’s look at the numbers. Margin leverage stands at just under $436 billion. Just a few short months ago there had never been a time where nominally it had been higher. But, let’s look at recent history and put this in perspective.

In 2000, margin debt stood at $279 billion. This is a time when doctors, lawyers, and people that should know better quit their jobs to day trade their portfolios.

The next peak was in 2007. Given the short memories people have of getting smashed just a few years prior, margin debt ran up to $381 billion. It was then cut by more than 50% as stocks went south.

And now we stand at $436 billion. Could it go higher? Sure, it could. It’s been higher over the past year. However, there’s a limit to how much people can borrow. And the higher it goes, the harder it’s going to hurt on the way down.

In fact, it’s already starting to drop. This might be the most important thing to note: margin debt is falling, and has now just crossed below its own six-month moving average. This means the debt bubble could just be starting to burst.

There are also differences between 2000 and 2007 that don’t bode well for speculators.

In 2000, it was mostly technology stocks that were inflated. There were plenty of investing safe havens to avoid the bear market in technology stocks. In 2007, financials were in a bubble.

Now, there is nowhere to hide. Stocks sell at outrageous levels to both revenue and sustainable earnings. When this debt bubble pops, it’s going to be a doozy!

Markets can always correct, as they did last year, but a 2008-event is just not in the cards. Despite that, and the fact none of us know what’s coming, a balanced and diversified portfolio is the best way to mitigate volatility and still get your money working. The 2008-9 experience proved that. — Garth

#74 WUL on 04.06.16 at 9:53 pm

Two Points:

#38 Frank:

You asked:

“Does Fort McMurray at -40% sound like a great opportunity to buy up here?”
_______________

A one industry town. This country is littered with mining towns that have been shuttered from Kirkland Lake to Tumbler Ridge. Is the oil sands industry a “sunset” industry? Your call. My financial advice is slightly worse than my legal advice, but at least for the latter I can charge.$550 per hour.

If you have $150K hanging around for a down payment, I would recommend spreading it out on bets on Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Mr. Spieth, Justin Rose and Bubba Watson in the Masters. A sounder bet.
________________

The Hag’s death today saddened me. This sorry assed cowpoke from Alberta was raised on his brilliance. If you want to see Oprah and Obama, et. al. rock to his magic, Google Haggard Kennedy Centre.

I have watched it about 300 times.
____________________________

Thanks Hon. Stalwart GT.

#75 kilometres on 04.06.16 at 9:54 pm

#63 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 04.06.16 at 9:06 pm

A commercial-residential property 45 minutes north of downtown Toronto that I reference in the link on this site’s home page. — Garth
___________________________________

45 minutes north of downtown. Would that be rush hour, weekend traffic or what? Why not use kilometres to describe distance? if it is south of Barrie, its a bubble.

===

Still not kilometres, but try this:

http://www.belfountainstore.ca/

#76 headcount on 04.06.16 at 10:00 pm

67 JSS on 04.06.16 at 9:26 pm

Hey, where is Mark these days?

====

Taking FX trading lessons from Smokie at a secret location in Area51, where he is hiding from his wife, cia, mossad, reptilians and endless, pointless real estate discussions, while the entire economy is disintegrating to open the door for the future.

#77 Big Dipper on 04.06.16 at 10:06 pm

#39 Brian Ripley on 04.06.16 at 7:46 pm

“But it was a distressed buy, a third below list price” Garth

Calgary housing prices are clearly in a downtrend:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

———————————————-

Busy, but interesting graph. Calgary SFD shows micro, but not a macro relationship to TSX Energy. Based on the current TSX Energy levels the average SFD, not adjusted for inflation, should be about $230k. As of March ’16 the average price is $540k. Of course there will be a lag, but this magnitude?

Something else, unrelated to Energy has driven the Calgary SFD sky high since 2006. Maybe income, but what about the current local unemployment levels?

How about mortgage rates? HAM anybody? :)

#78 Mark on 04.06.16 at 10:10 pm

“Garth, don’t you think the stock market is also over valuated? Or we should continue investing?”

The Canadian stock market is trading beneath historic average P/E ratios, significantly beneath historic average P/B ratios, at a time when most of the highly cyclical components (miners, oil & gas, etc.) have been decimated.

If anything, the “stock market” is dirt cheap at the moment relative to houses.

If the 1990s repeat themselves in some form or another, a mere housing downpayment, invested in a broadly diversified Canadian index fund, will be, by the time a decade has elapsed, and with dividend re-investment, grow to be large enough to buy an equivalent house outright in cash.

If anything, there’s even reason to believe that the situation of mean reversion may be more vigorous now than in the 1990s.

Canadian housing has a P/E of 35. The TSX has a P/E of 15. If those two ratios flip, as they have in the past, the TSX would increase by roughly 5X against housing.

#79 Jamie Dimon's free advice to Garth Turner on 04.06.16 at 10:11 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/dimon-us-has-serious-issues-2016-4

Jamie Dimon is worried about the future of the US.

In the company’s annual letter, the JPMorgan CEO expressed concern over “long-term issues” facing the country and said that they could cause a crisis in the future.

Then Jamie, who obviously reads this pathetic blog, gives some advice:

DON’T paint everything as black and white

DON’T attack an entire class or society of people: “This is always wrong and just another form of prejudice. One of the greatest men in America’s history, President Abraham Lincoln, never drew straw men, never scapegoated and never denigrated any class of society — even though he probably had more reason to do so than many.”

DO compromise: “Also, you can compromise without violating your principles, but it is nearly impossible to compromise when you turn principles into ideology.”

#80 price to rent ratio yvr on 04.06.16 at 10:13 pm

we live in vancouver and rent . a ratio of over 15 generally means you are better off renting. the value of the house divided by the annual rent. our current house we rent is a nice bungalow on a 33 ft lot 10 minutes to downtown. the ratio on our place is 62. the last house we rented in the same area had a ratio of 91. it was a 1950’s bungalow on a 50 ft. lot ten minutes to downtown. what do you think of these numbers gt?

#81 Freddie on 04.06.16 at 10:15 pm

I recently skimmed my daughter’s first year economics text book. Chapter one outlined some basic economic assumptions. One was that all actors in the economy make rational decisions. Clearly not true giving all the examples of the herd buying (or selling ) too late that Garth has highlighted. Maybe that is the reason no one really understands the economy. Economics is based on a false assumption vis-s-vis rational actors. Just saying.

#82 Porsche on 04.06.16 at 10:17 pm

#69 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.06.16 at 9:37 pm
Average prices have catapulted higher by 15-23% in our two bubble cities …
………………………………………………………………………

I turned down a telecom job in Regina… it paid a whopping $15 an hour to start and topped out at $21… LMFAO

#83 Jacob on 04.06.16 at 10:17 pm

Garth,

For a long time, I too believed real estate was overvalued. I watched with glee as the US market crashed and burned… But look at it now. The averages are now surpassing the levels of 2007, so even if you bought at the absolute peak, on the last day of the rally, you’re still in the money. Why? Because no government, no central bank and no citizen in the world WANTS it to fall. So buy with impunity. Buy today, buy tomorrow, buy some more the day after that. Rest assured the governments and central banks WILL bail you out in the long term. Don’t fight the fed. The fed needs higher home values and more inflation to sustain the capitalist system as we know it. Being bearish housing can only make your life miserable. We’re all born short one home. Just suck it up, get flat by buying one and stop worrying about it. You can thank me later.

#84 Mark on 04.06.16 at 10:19 pm

“Hey, where is Mark these days?”

Here. Just didn’t really have anything to say for the past few articles. Not that they weren’t good, but there wasn’t really anything technical for me to say about them.

#85 DON on 04.06.16 at 10:21 pm

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.16 at 7:21 pm

I was working in a mechanical plant the other day that is undergoing a huge upgrade. The lunchroom was full of trades. Most making minimum 80k per annum. More with OT, shift differential, etc. The conversation turned to the real estate market in YVR after one of the younger guys mentioned he was bidding on a condo.
A surprising majority of the older guys said, “It’ll never go down” and the younger ones were bobbing their heads in agreement. I said, ” These prices are ridiculous and unsustainable. Remember the early 80’s when the bottom fell out?”

Crickets.

****************
Nice!

The self brainwashing is a jar dropping – hand to head moment.

#86 Coincidence? Doubtful. on 04.06.16 at 10:26 pm

#71 Mark on 04.06.16 at 10:19 pm
“Hey, where is Mark these days?”

Here. Just didn’t really have anything to say for the past few articles. Not that they weren’t good, but there wasn’t really anything technical for me to say about them.
…………….

Mark hasn’t been posting lately. Nor has Smoking Man. Perhaps Smoking Man is Mark while he is not drinking. Or maybe Smoking Man is Mark when he is drinking! Not sure which one is more plausible…

#87 BOOM! on 04.06.16 at 10:27 pm

#55 Preet

I have lived with many changes in recorded music formats, as just one example.

When I was young (think ~10 yrs old) they discontinued the 78 rpm record. Actually 45’s and the long play 33’s had been widely available since the earlier 50’s 52-54 and are STILL being made today (if you know where to look).

There was the 4 track cassette, then the 8 track cassette, open reel with various ips (inches per second) recording speeds. Lastly regular cassettes, where you could do your own tapes, buy them pre-recorded etc.

1982 brings in the CD. Then you could make your own CD’s via computer downloads, or, even this fossil can go direct from vinyl (any speed) to CD, or to the computer / cloud.

The bad news, Preet, the sound reproduced from a CD is great, but the compression into the cloud, or mp3 makes them rather hollow with a maddeningly compressed dynamic range.

So we go from those old 78’s to CD then revert a bit via the computer / cloud I tunes crap.

Do I have a bias? Dam straight.

One thing I detest is using “alternate recordings in so many of the on-line offerings. This ear can tell in a nanosecond., nearly.
Some of those great tunes of my youth are never heard except again in ‘alternate take’ form today. You would never know, much less care. Many Boomers couldn’t pick it out either. (my passion, my ear)

We won’t even discuss Stereo/Mono/Fake Stereo here…

#88 Booby13 on 04.06.16 at 10:32 pm

You can blame your government and its policies for the stratosphere housing prices, the banks are taking advantage of the situation as they have helped to develop the policies that are now in place that is supporting these prices. Your government loves it they can tax home inflation prices, they can’t tax deflation consider it a tax, a very high one it has become.
Don’t worry T2 has a 450 Million budget to CRA to chase tax evaders I wonder if they’ll find enough to cover that bill.

#89 Thelma on 04.06.16 at 10:33 pm

What is it millennials can tell their children they had to do without?

#90 Zinc on 04.06.16 at 10:34 pm

People in YVR lined up to buy un-built condos back in the early 90’s…not sure why you keep pretending it’s a Millennial thing…

#91 KelownaBound on 04.06.16 at 10:35 pm

Hey Garth – very good perspective tonight. I’ve been reading your blog for years and frankly agree with 99% of it. Most early 30s ppl around me are getting out of Vancouver if they can. I also bought a $700k place in Kelowna – pool, hot tub, half acre, nice house. It’s a ton of money at 33 but my half $M in savings remains untouched and I see great ‘value’ in the place. It jives with your advice. The place would be $3M in Vancouver where I’m at now. ….and before it gets accused, savings were earned

#92 Tony on 04.06.16 at 10:42 pm

There was a ten for one stock split in 1996 for Bre-X. I still have the newspaper when Bre-X first listed on the Vancouver Stock Exchange. Never owned the stock nor shorted it. Financially illiterate people tend to look for one single investment that will make them a lot of money over a lifetime.

#93 Nemesis on 04.06.16 at 10:43 pm

#MontanaSlim… #ExtendsHisCondolences… #ToGrievingWashedUpLawyers… #OnTheHighPrairie…

https://youtu.be/fpg4I-Jdjjs

#94 Mark on 04.06.16 at 10:46 pm

“Let’s look at the numbers. Margin leverage stands at just under $436 billion. Just a few short months ago there had never been a time where nominally it had been higher. But, let’s look at recent history and put this in perspective.”

Big deal. There’s $1.3-$1.5T of mortgage credit alone outstanding in Canada, a country with 1/10th of the population. $436B USD$ is a drop in the bucket. A rounding error.

If margin debt was, say, $15T, then it might be a problem. But $436B, lol, that’s nothing. It means, if anything, that there is very little margin-based leverage against the US stock market.

#95 Today's picture on 04.06.16 at 10:48 pm

Strong -> unsustainable real estate
Stronger -> equity markets nowhere near top

Take your pick, place your bet…

#96 Mark on 04.06.16 at 10:50 pm

“Something else, unrelated to Energy has driven the Calgary SFD sky high since 2006.”

CMHC and the RE bubble. There actually aren’t that many O&G workers who live in Calgary per se. A few engineers and accountants, but not much of an industry presence overall. The FIRE sector easily eclipsed the O&G sector as a percentage of Calgary’s local GDP. Especially the housing sector.

Now, Edmonton and Northern Alberta is obviously quite a different story.

#97 The other white meat (pork) on 04.06.16 at 10:51 pm

Bloomberg had a Charlie Rose interview with Jack Lew (US Treasury Secretary) which is was interesting . He said that the American economy has been good at creating jobs but not wage inflation and he supports raising the minimum wage to create inflation. It would appear that a lot of those new jobs are in the service industry and don’t pay well.

The BBC had a panel interview with a group from Davos and one with Christine Laguard (sp? ) and all expressed concern about a lack of inflation but avoided the word “deflation”, though the meaning was clear enough . None of the predictions were rosy and one oft used word was “volatility” .

#98 Economics is based on a false assumption on 04.06.16 at 10:54 pm

#80 Freddie on 04.06.16 at 10:15 pm

I recently skimmed my daughter’s first year economics text book. Chapter one outlined some basic economic assumptions. One was that all actors in the economy make rational decisions. Clearly not true giving all the examples of the herd buying (or selling ) too late that Garth has highlighted. Maybe that is the reason no one really understands the economy. Economics is based on a false assumption vis-s-vis rational actors. Just saying.

===

And you are a credible critic of “economics”, because you recently skimmed your daughter’s first year economics text book.

Rational actors, eh?

#99 hope & ruin on 04.06.16 at 10:57 pm

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.16 at 7:21 pm
I said, ” These prices are ridiculous and unsustainable. Remember the early 80’s when the bottom fell out?”

Crickets.
_____________________________________

are you sure you didn’t just let one rip? Might have had the same effect.

#100 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.06.16 at 10:58 pm

Hey, where is Mark these days?

looking for a job?

he was always complaining on RFD how nobody would hire him :(

#101 hope & ruin on 04.06.16 at 10:59 pm

@ Rock Beats Paper

This is Canada: the standard units for driving distance is time, always.

#102 OttawaGuyRenting on 04.06.16 at 11:03 pm

You’ll see that the game changes when you get older. You’ll realize that a few new tech gadgets and some seemingly big advances really didn’t change much and that many things you thought were important just aren’t.

_______

Yep.
exaaaaaactly

The herd with beards and skinny jeans becomes the disenchanted and greying 40 year old I am
I look down at Millens the same way I was looked down upon when I was reading FastCompany2.0 quoting Adbusters.
I was Don Draper in the mid 90s that thought he had the world by the nuts.

You Age.

Grow tired.

Your wife and dog are your life.
Not FoisGras and 12.99 Grill Cheese sandwiches on Instagram

You aren’t earning and that retail weLfare will run out at interest rates climb.

I hope your knitted sweaters keep your warm and beards soak up the soup at the shelter

Doom out

#103 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 04.06.16 at 11:05 pm

just to clarify I hope WalMark finds a job. nobody needs to be unemployed for as long as that guy. especially in the booming tech field. that’s just not right

#104 Arb Watson on 04.06.16 at 11:06 pm

Looks like bears are getting squeezed.

http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-O54O0USYF01V01-37QL3U6JCSHEM4OS6LQ9FK9B8I

#105 Remember the early 80’s on 04.06.16 at 11:08 pm

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.16 at 7:21 pm
I said, ” These prices are ridiculous and unsustainable. Remember the early 80’s when the bottom fell out?”

===

If they do, they are witnessing an incredibly profitable rebound.

#106 Tony on 04.06.16 at 11:11 pm

Re: #73 WUL on 04.06.16 at 9:53 pm

Never bet a Sunday choker in golf. Bubba Watson fits that category as does Dustin Johnson. Jason Day never choked in a round of golf in his entire life. He finally got over injuries.

#107 BOOM! on 04.06.16 at 11:12 pm

#55 Preet

“we pre-buy everything…phones, cars…”

Apparently never heard of “catalog shopping” back in the day. Places like Montgomery Wards, Sears, Speigel who had great offerings from clothes shoes electronics, automotive via catalog. Mail order, wait, receive…

I am sure there were others, some had retail stores as well. Times change, technology changes, people age, die, are replaced. History is an interesting teacher. Many never bother to read their own histories. Today is not so very different from 60 years ago. I wasn’t there 100 so can’t comment.

#108 Chris on 04.06.16 at 11:19 pm

Is there a housing shortage in Vancouver and Toronto for all the people coming to these two cities to live? I would think so. Why else would there be a bidding war almost everywhere in these two cities? Multiple offers for every house almost. It is crazy. But what is the cause for the craziness? Is it a shortage of housing supplies? Oshawa already start to see bidding wars also. Even further east Courtice. Just a matter of time for Bowmanville. And I cannot name any cities further east after that. Crazy I know. But also rational?

#109 standard units for driving distance on 04.06.16 at 11:22 pm

#100 hope & ruin on 04.06.16 at 10:59 pm

@ Rock Beats Paper

This is Canada: the standard units for driving distance is time, always.

===

So true.

Probably comes from real estate sales pitch lingo.

#110 Deja vu on 04.06.16 at 11:25 pm

TEAM HILLARY: Bernie is ‘not ready to be president’

Where did we hear this before?

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.16 at 11:33 pm

@# 99 hope and ruin
“are you sure you didn’t just let one rip? Might have had the same effect…..”
*****************************************

In a lunchroom?
Philistine……

It has more effect in an enclosed space….natch.

#112 DON on 04.06.16 at 11:35 pm

#54 preet89 on 04.06.16 at 8:29 pm

You do need to realize that ever generation goes through similar growing pains, technological advancements do not equate to advancements in human nature. I sounded the same as you, when I was your age, built up frustration and knowledgeable to a point. Nothing can replace experience. Over step your reach while climbing up the ladder and the risk off falling increases.

And most people over 40 created the companies, software, networks etc that enabled you to buy online crap. Learn to support your local business and search out value. Drop the attitude and attack on other generations start thinking about engaging like minded folks from all generations. And take advantage of your youth and live life.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.16 at 11:37 pm

@#55 North Burnaby
“Don’t forget to blame Gartho when you finally get priced out of the condo market”
******************************************

Speaking of Condo purchases.
Anyone notice the latest Tim Hortons ad where the “daughter” is packing up her parents treasures and they find a box of old Tims coffee cups? The “husband” says ” They’ll never fit all this in the condo.’

is it me ? or is it somewhat implied that the “Daughter” is getting the house?

Time for ANOTHER beer…………..

#114 JSS on 04.06.16 at 11:40 pm

#96 Mark on 04.06.16 at 10:50 pm writes

“Now, Edmonton and Northern Alberta is obviously quite a different story.”

—-
How much different is Edmonton compared to Calgary? Really? Incomes are similar, same province, same regional population base.

#115 Dude on 04.06.16 at 11:48 pm

Funny how the city of vancouver now want to regulate airbnb because it eats away from the rental unit supply. They will not do a thing for the foreign investor which buy house\condo left and right and leave them empty but when something benefit the little guy they don’t waste a minute in trying to regulate it.

Why why why??? This is crazy. Why aren’t people living here and contributing to the economy will have that taken away from them so fast when rich foreign investor are left alone to buy the entire city and leave unit empty??

#116 WUL on 04.07.16 at 12:07 am

NEMESIS @ 93:

You crack me up!! I met Roy Rodgers and Dale Evans in 1962 in Calgary. Trigger was not there. Don’t fence me in.

#117 not 1st on 04.07.16 at 12:09 am

I dont think I have every heard of someone buying the same property twice.

Hope there are no walmarts planned for that area Garth.

#118 Big Dipper on 04.07.16 at 12:23 am

#96 Mark on 04.06.16 at 10:50 pm

“Something else, unrelated to Energy has driven the Calgary SFD sky high since 2006.”

“CMHC and the RE bubble. There actually aren’t that many O&G workers who live in Calgary per se. A few engineers and accountants, but not much of an industry presence overall.”

——————————————-

Pretty well all of Canada’s O&G Head Office/Corporate is in Calgary. There have been extensive Corporate lay-offs. Calgary has massive employment in O&G support services, EPC, all types of O&G consulting, project management and contractors. This in addition to the FIRE sector which is a service sector for Calgary’s O&G driven economy.

Once the Head Offices and service sectors start laying off employees, the snowball effect multiplies to al sectors. Nobody is immune.

Calgary is O&G.

#119 Mountain Dew on 04.07.16 at 12:24 am

It’s not correct to say that there is no way to buy a condo now in YVR, rent it out and have the rent cover the costs. My friend told me that he rexently bought a 2 bedroom condo around Oak and 22nd for $500,000. He must have had a good down payment because he says he got a one year mortgage at 1.78 percent. He is renting the unit for well over 2 grand a month. He claims the rent is covering his costs. My back of the envelope calculations suggest he’s correct — but there is absolutely no wriggle room. Prices are up since he bought it, so he is looking smart. Something else to consider — if you put 20 percent down, no cmhc, and you can pay the balance as a line of credit up to 65 percent with the balance as mortgage up to 80 percent of the house value, which means you can pay only interest for most of it. That scenario is often cheaper than renting, at least in Van. I know — these examples are the equivalent of running on fumes. A lot of folks have been running on fumes here for a long time and making it work, and somehow, against common sense, it has been working.

#120 Brazil ex-pat on 04.07.16 at 12:33 am

http://www.cknw.com/2016/04/06/dunbar-home-sells-for-1-million-over-asking/

Absolutely bought by a local. I’m seereeus……

#121 Ben Freidman on 04.07.16 at 12:52 am

Guys like me learned long ago it’s never different this time.

Central Banks never colluded to borrow and spend in any generation prior to the Bernake Revelation in 2001 when that Space Oddity ‘Helicopter Ben’ discovered the uselessness of savings.

#122 Freedom First on 04.07.16 at 1:36 am

#39 Francis

Francis, check back when it’s -40C …….

#123 Kenchie on 04.07.16 at 1:54 am

#21 An honest realtor on 04.06.16 at 7:12 pm
“More doom and gloom, yet this year and last year had terrific gains, and so will 2017 and 2018 and 2019. It is so obvious if you actually understand our real estate market and the dynamics driving it.

In reality, I feel so sorry for people who have been buying this ‘real estate bubble’ nonsense since 2008 in Canada, sitting on the sidelines.

Their opportunity cost is already wrecking their financial lives. Many will now never be able to own in Canada’s major city, shutting them out as well from the country’s best jobs which are there.

Realtors have helped, really helped, thousands build a nest egg as well as to settle in Toronto and enjoy such a liveable city.

To all the doomers, how can you live with yourselves? You have cost so many people so much. Shame on you and your envious duplicity.

I know I have helped hundreds of people become wealthier. The doomers only enable people to become poorer and more bitter.”
———————————————–

Paper gains not based on fundamentals are ephemeral.

Realtors don’t help, they’re an externality that adds no value to real estate valuations. They are a cash outflow, not a cash inflow, and thus their costs are capitalized and passed on to the next buyer. Thus they are not helpful in adding value to residential real estate.

Furthermore, land values in Vancouver are rising wayyyy too fast to justify by economic fundamentals. Developers will continue to build until the music stops, that’s their job and what they do. They know nothing else. I was listening to someone from Onni this afternoon talk about how they’re diversifying into Greater LA and Chicago areas in a big way. That gentleman called Nat Bosa a visionary for his foresight to start developing in SF and San Diego. Take a clue from the experts…

#124 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 04.07.16 at 2:11 am

#101 hope & ruin on 04.06.16 at 10:59 pm

Not if you live in the GTA.

#125 Vangrrl on 04.07.16 at 4:24 am

#56 Preet
Lol- ‘Anyone over 40’ is old?
You are aware that Amazon was founded by Joe Bezos who was born in 1964, thus making him 52 yrs old. (He founded it when he was 31). So yeah thanks, Amazon was founded by someone of MY generation (actually a few years older) so get over yourself.
Now let’s see if your generation will leave the house long enough to invent anything new or will just sit around (can’t help myself- ‘in your parent’s basement’) shopping all day :).

#126 cto on 04.07.16 at 7:09 am

from The Globe:” Premarket: U.S. dollar sinks again after Fed remains cautious”

Garth…
I gotta tell ya….it sure looks like,…yet again,… the FED is desperately looking for excuses to not raise interest rates…
I’m not a high paid economist and just a small middle class investor. I used to believe that rates would be increased by rational governments seeing it as moral hazard not to do so.
But it is becoming very easy for the doomers to convince millions of us that near 0 rates may be intentional by all governments in the western hemisphere, and prime rates will stay below 2% for the remainder of our lives.
I once believed that rational policy would prevail but not any more…

#127 cto on 04.07.16 at 7:19 am

105 Remember the early 80’s
#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.16 at 7:21 pm
I said, ” These prices are ridiculous and unsustainable. Remember the early 80’s when the bottom fell out?”

===

If they do, they are witnessing an incredibly profitable rebound.

That is an awesome answer my friend!!!!

#128 M on 04.07.16 at 7:36 am

“My world view was formed over years of boom and bust. That’s produced a cynical fossil who understands no asset class in history has ever risen without falling, and human nature has never evolved. Guys like me learned long ago it’s never different this time. Some of us didn’t learn to shut up about it, though.”

…AMEN BROTHER !!

#129 Mr. Frugal on 04.07.16 at 7:40 am

#56 Preet
Lol- ‘Anyone over 40’ is old?
You are aware that Amazon was founded by Joe Bezos who was born in 1964, thus making him 52 yrs old. (He founded it when he was 31). So yeah thanks, Amazon was founded by someone of MY generation (actually a few years older) so get over yourself.
Now let’s see if your generation will leave the house long enough to invent anything new or will just sit around (can’t help myself- ‘in your parent’s basement’) shopping all day :).

—–

Vangrrl is spot on! The same goes for Apple, Microsoft and your precious Telsa. Elon Musk is 44 years old!!! Face it Preet, us old folks have done more, seen more and quite frankly we know more. Oh and our music is much better too.

#130 maxx on 04.07.16 at 7:50 am

#10 Old stock Canadian on 04.06.16 at 6:55 pm

“People line up to buy apartments not yet built. Now it spills into automobile as well….”….
….”Lining up for three days to buy a car? Seriously? For a car you might not take delivery of for four years?”…. “…..what I saw, at least judging by the blissed-out visages…..”….

Spot on. That is how corporations make a killing and so many get soaked – business knows full well that most people are foolish consumers and that 90 percent of all purchasing decisions are based on emotion, hormones, ego-driven fantasy. How else would the stupid find it acceptable to pee in jars, in deep cold to buy an unfinished cement box. I first noticed this in Ottawa in 2000 and couldn’t believe that such idiots existed. Some of these fools camped out in lawn chairs to buy pressed cornflakes on marshland. Many rued the day they prostrated themselves into probably the worst investment of their lives as many basements started leaking in some of these developments.

As for the blissed-out visages, these are largely the result of years of marinating in msm advertising, their brains saturated in the garbage of fake imagery.

Sadly, many millennials were never taught to do math in their heads, compromising the ability to think critically and on the fly. Try this simple and amusing test: next time you make a purchase, add some coin to get back a loonie rather than change from a dollar. Do it on a day when you’re not in a rush as odds are you’ll be held up.

#131 Ace Goodheart on 04.07.16 at 8:11 am

RE: #10 “Old Stock Canadian”:

People line up to buy apartments not yet built. Now it spills into automobile as well. The world is full of money, except in the Turner’s blog.
http://driving.ca/tesla/model-s/auto-news/news/motor-mouth-why-im-not-drinking-the-tesla-kool-aid-just-yet
It was also, for those of us who trumpet reason over emotion, a little disturbing. Lining up for three days to buy a car? Seriously? For a car you might not take delivery of for four years? While others saw “a reinvigorated future for electric vehicles” and the long-predicted move to profitability for Tesla, what I saw, at least judging by the blissed-out visages of the show’s attendees, was a Creflo A. Dollar revival meeting — “Hallelujah, glory be to God” — giving thanks to the 200,000 acolytes he beseeched to buy him a private jet.

This guy’s a little different. The Tesla idea is not making him money. He had already become very wealthy prior to Tesla. He actually currently loses money on every car he sells. He’s got this “vision” of a world with electric cars and charging stations everywhere, so that no one needs a gasoline car any more. There are free charging stations already all over the world for these cars. He’s building a network of recharge outlets, so people can drive these cars anywhere, entirely for free.

What he is doing will likely, if successful, have the following effects:

1. It will make driving very affordable. Here’s why: purchase a $35,000 car right now, you are paying for gasoline, oil changes, expensive car maintenance, transmission repairs, coolant changes, all the usual maintenance that gasoline engines need. A gasoline engine is a very expensive item to own and run. They don’t use them in industry for this reason. They are low horsepower, high maintenance, have short service lives and are incredibly complex and difficult to repair. Industry prefers the electric motor. No maintenance, lasts for millions of hours, high output, incredibly reliable and long lived. You have many electric motors in your house right now, which you don’t even know about, because they require no maintenance and last forever.

So, purchase a $35,000 Tesla, plug it in to a free charging station to “gas it up”, and there are no oil changes (electric motors don’t need oil), no transmission service (it doesn’t have or need a transmission), no coolant service (has no cooling system), no filters to replace (does not need air to run). It is a zero maintenance vehicle, for life.

However, as you can see, if these things become popular, this will also have the following effects: The auto maintenance industry is a billion dollar industry. Car parts and car repairs are the stuff that McMansions, private jets and private Islands in the tropics are made of. Car parts increase in price exponentially as they change hands (much like diamonds). A $2.00 fuel filter ends up costing the consumer $200.00 when it is installed in a BMW, by a mechanic charging $175.00 per hour.

If Mr. Musk has his way, this entire industry will collapse.

Then we have the oil industry, happily destroying our planet for 100 years. This industry also relies on being able to sell over priced gasoline to a captive market who can’t buy anything else, because there is no other motive power for the private consumer. The same thing will happen here, if everyone finds out how amazing it is to drive for free, zero emissions, with no expensive car repairs, who needs gas stations?

So that is what could happen. I have reserved a Tesla Model 3 and I intend to take delivery of it as soon as it is available. I’m getting the dual motor option with the long range battery. Time will tell, if these things are going to revolutionize the industry or not. But if they do I would suggest short selling oil stocks and car repair industry stocks.

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.16 at 8:15 am

@#105

Not if they bought in 1981/82 on the way up and hoped to flip it in 1983. The house I was renting went from 240k to 80k almost over night. Took almost 10 years to get back to 240k.
Something about those 18% mortgage rates as I recall.
Had several friends declare bankruptcy/ divorce, etc.. Mortgaged 2, 3 houses….lost it all.

#133 Estrella on 04.07.16 at 8:20 am

Paradigm shift. Urbanization is contributing to type 2 diabetes. We’ll then…..

Check out @novonordisktbl’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/novonordisktbl/status/718046302362177536?s=09

#134 cramar on 04.07.16 at 9:16 am

Found out that not all Millennials are naive, financially clueless, and infected with the RE virus. Actually it is refreshing.

A neighbour’s daughter got married two summers ago, fresh out of university. The guy she married works in an Ontario city for one of the most famous hi-tech companies (don’t what to identify the city or the company). Apparently they live very frugally, and absolutely hate shopping for stuff. They have needed a new bed since the wedding, but have not bothered to shop for one.

Neighbour was telling my wife, that the youngsters were thinking of buying a house in their city and they have enough saved to PAY CASH! No mortgage! But they decided not to since they realized because of their frugal ways, how are they going to furnish a whole house when they haven’t even shopped for a needed bed? So they decided buying is not worth it, and will continue to rent. No RE Coolaide for them! It is not about the money, but the time investment in a house.

At this rate, I figure they could be millionaires by thirty.

#135 Lower Mainland on 04.07.16 at 9:27 am

I work in engineering approvals for a municipality in a “smoking hot” area of the lower mainland. We have a 10 month wait for a building permit. I talk to builders and developers daily and they are scared. The inventory of developable land is so expensive (last tear down I saw listed was a corner lot, not very desirable) asking $1,338,000 that builders wouldn’t even consider a year or two ago now bidding war. By the time the lot is sold and redeveloped could take two years and would need to sell for 2.5million. They are scared to take the risk. I asked one of these guys how could a worker like me ever come close to getting a loan for this and he said his banker said that 90 percent of loan capital in the town is coming from “private lending”. Go figure….

#136 waiting on the westcoast on 04.07.16 at 9:30 am

#126 cto on 04.07.16 at 7:09 am
“from The Globe:” Premarket: U.S. dollar sinks again after Fed remains cautious”

Garth…
I gotta tell ya….it sure looks like,…yet again,… the FED is desperately looking for excuses to not raise interest rates…
I’m not a high paid economist and just a small middle class investor. I used to believe that rates would be increased by rational governments seeing it as moral hazard not to do so.
But it is becoming very easy for the doomers to convince millions of us that near 0 rates may be intentional by all governments in the western hemisphere, and prime rates will stay below 2% for the remainder of our lives.
I once believed that rational policy would prevail but not any more…”

I agree. Yellen and the rest of the doves on the Fed are being reactive to market sentiment rather than looking at the US’s fundamentals which are improving. Unfortunately, their delay is also inflating bubbles globally and will end up causing more pain later…

Keep kicking the can down the road…

#137 Renter's Revenge! on 04.07.16 at 9:38 am

BOOM!, Vangrrl, Mr. Frugal, others:

Relax, Preet is obviously a troll. Don’t encourage it!

Maybe he should start calling himself Preet Trollerjee.

#138 Sean on 04.07.16 at 10:03 am

Garth you really think rates will rise to a meaningful level in the next 10 years? The ZIRP started in 08 and aside from the tiny increase we just saw, they are still close to zero. The US is already back tracking from raising too quickly and here we went from raising to quickly lowering it again. Debt and low rates SEEMS like the new normal. Hard to think any other way when that’s all we know in our 20s.

#139 Ronaldo on 04.07.16 at 10:05 am

#93 Nemesis on 04.06.16 at 10:43 pm

I remember seeing Wilf and his daughters perform at the fall fair in Prince Albert in 1957. Have a nice 8 x 10 photo of them and Kandy Kane as well. Also saw Hank Snow same time and recall him singing “I’ve been everywhere”. Seems like yesterday.

#140 Hebert Strane on 04.07.16 at 10:11 am

Expect more HAM, not less, for reasons they ( and people like Garth ) don’t want you to know about in the Canadian media. The trickle is turning into a wave…but it’s racist to say ‘boo’.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/china-traders-flee-to-hong-kong-in-record-stock-buying-streak

#141 economictsunami on 04.07.16 at 10:18 am

“…if they understand and accept the risks…”

Therein lies the problem. How to judge risk when so many governments and CBs have gone from merely influencing supply/demand market components, to directly intervening to prop/ pump up asset prices.

Many CBs have admitted that their forecasting models are virtually broken by such policy action. Others have yet to admit it but the truth shines through in the form of their inaccurate economic forecasting.

How can an individual see accurate price discovery, through the fog of artificial financial measures?

Nouriel Roubini: Unconventional Monetary Policy on Stilts

“These policies did indeed reduce long- and medium-term interest rates on government securities and mortgage bonds. They also narrowed credit spreads on private assets, boosted the stock market, weakened the currency, and reduced real interest rates by increasing inflation expectations. So they were partly effective.”

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/new-range-of-unconventional-monetary-policies-by-nouriel-roubini-2016-04

When Japan first began experiencing problems, it appeared to be an isolated case.

Now the financial/ economic problems have gone global.

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
– Mark Twain

#142 peepeepoopoo on 04.07.16 at 10:53 am

real estate market will not correct without a crisis of some kind – stock market crash, mass credit defaults, war

otherwise low rates and relaxed lending standards will make it business as usual. even if properties don’t sell, carrying costs are so low.

low oil seems to have completely localized impacts to alberta and some maritime provinces. and if the problem does get any worse it sounds like the BOC will be there to help prop it all up. Greater Toronto and Van will just keep running.

#143 Capt. Obvious on 04.07.16 at 11:38 am

They have needed a new bed since the wedding, but have not bothered to shop for one.

ROFL.
BTW, a good bed is the best investment you’ll make. You’ll spend 1/4 to 1/3 of your life on it.

#144 Doug in London on 04.07.16 at 11:44 am

@crowdedelevatorfartz post #27, My Wife Loves Garth post #65:
Sooner or later the inevitable will happen and these outrageously high values will normalize, in other words drop. When that happens, make sure you rub it right into their faces with comments like do you still think prices will keep on going up forever?

#145 Panhead on 04.07.16 at 11:47 am

#130 maxx on 04.07.16 at 7:50 am
Try this simple and amusing test: next time you make a purchase, add some coin to get back a loonie rather than change from a dollar. Do it on a day when you’re not in a rush as odds are you’ll be held up.

Still remember stopping in a “greasy spoon” in some small town in northern Cali with a few bud’s returning from a Reno road trip. We placed our order and in a while the waitress returned and started laying out the cutlery. I asked her “you do take Canadian money don’t you?” She just turned to the back and yelled “STOP THE FOOD.” She shortly returned with the food that was already cooked. By chance the owner came in and she had a conflab with him. When we went to the till to pay the tab she said “I’m supposed to charge you an extra 10 percent … but I can’t figure that … so I’ll just charge you even.” Not everybody is good with math I guess …

#146 Capt. Obvious on 04.07.16 at 11:51 am

Frankly, we’ll probably end up buying something in the next few years. We can afford it without sinking all our savings into one, and we can still keep the mortgage low enough to not worry about rate shock should it occur. It’s tempting to keep renting though. P/R on our place is about 25 given what detached houses go for around here (we like the area). (The people who own the house have been renting it out for over 10 years, so I’m sure they’re doing just fine at our rent.) Property management is responsive to problems and upgrades needed. Pretty good situation.
House prices seem to be kind of stagnant here. We’ve seen some houses sit for over 6 months, and some be de-listed in the fall that have now been re-listed.

#147 Andrew on 04.07.16 at 11:53 am

Oh Garth,

When you refuse to post a comment highlighting that you were wrong, and you inadvertantly admitting to it, it kind of makes you look dictatorial and lose all credibility.

It’s good to be wrong sometimes and takes some courage to admit it. It makes you look human in a world of unpredictability. If I had one complaint about this blog it’s that you think you are infallible and what you say is gospel.

I love the blog and will keep reading, you just have to be aware that there are two sides to every coin and to take Garth’s opinion with a pinch of salt.

No comment of yours was deleted. But it’s good to know you are so sensitive. — Garth

#148 IHCTD9 on 04.07.16 at 11:57 am

“I said, “Call me back when it’s 5 million.” I expect her back pretty soon. We live in interesting times, at least in Vancouver. ”
_______________________________________

LOL, now that is a game I would play myself. What could be better than getting some good education on how much is too much for a HK’er, becoming filthy rich overnight, and having a good laugh – all at the same time? :)

#149 waiting on the westcoast on 04.07.16 at 11:59 am

#131 Ace Goodheart on 04.07.16 at 8:11 am re: Tesla

I think you nailed his long term vision and a number of its effects.

Elon put everything he had into Tesla, SpaceX, and SolarCity. It almost bankrupted him… So your thesis that he has money outside of this is wrong. He did this to change the world and make $$$. And he has done very well with both Tesla and SolarCity having gone public.

O&G have helped us raise our productivity immensely. While damage has been done to the world, we have been greatly enabled by its development and use. It will be around for a long time. Even when there are no more gas powered cars, all those plastic cases for our cell phones need to come from somewhere… ;-)

#150 Ole Doberman on 04.07.16 at 12:17 pm

Sounds like Trump will lite a fire under Canadian RE:

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/4/7/Vancouver-detached-homes-twice-as-pricey-as-Torontos-Survey.aspx

#151 Ronh on 04.07.16 at 12:19 pm

Just because Garth bought RE, doesn’t mean you should.

#152 fancy_pants on 04.07.16 at 12:37 pm

this is why many believe REwill continue to climb, and with our “love, unity and equality for all” immigration policy in high gear what is stopping it?

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/foreign-buyers-prefer-newer-condos-in-toronto-vancouver-report-finds-1.2849580

#153 Billy Bob on 04.07.16 at 12:39 pm

#10 Old stock Canadian on 04.06.16 at 6:55 pm
Really!?
That’s a teany tiny amount. It just gets air play.
You obviously have never driven one.
People are drinking the RE coolaide and that’s a fact.
We have an electric now 4 years old. I have backhoes trucks etc. Thank god this is one that needs virtually zero maintenance and gas. It’s cost me a $100 battery that runs the boot up comp. (a precaution change out)
$2.00-$4.00 a week in electricity. We drive only 8k a year it’s a small town.

#154 bill on 04.07.16 at 12:48 pm

#87 BOOM! on 04.06.16 at 10:27 pm
still carrying the audio torch I see … me too.
I use a alesis master link [ancient digital history…these can be bought for about 200.0 bucks or so down from 1600.0 brand new] to record my lps at 24 bit 96 k then dither that down to 16 bit44k which plays very nicely on my cd in the car.
other than normalize [done by the masterlink] nothing else.
sounds great and I find I am not adjusting tone and volume like I would on a ”normal digital recording put on a cd”.
ok maybe a bit of volume on the freeway…
you may be interested in:
http://www.radialeng.com/j33.php
http://artproaudio.com/turntable_preamps/

#155 dd on 04.07.16 at 12:49 pm

Gold. Actually gold is off 14% from the high in Canadian dollars.

#156 understood by few on 04.07.16 at 1:05 pm

#131 Ace Goodheart on 04.07.16 at 8:11 am

He actually currently loses money on every car he sells.
——————-

Nope. Tesla does not lose money on every car sold. Every car they have sold has been at a profit. For real. Look it up. Losing money on each car is an internet myth, propagated by people like you.

Then why isn’t the company profitable? Easy, they plough every cent they can into R&D. Could they reel it back a bit? Yep, but the model 3 wouldn’t even be on paper yet.

My bet is once the 3 is shipping reliably they’ll put even more money into R&D for the next step. Even more affordable, more range, full self driving etc. Elon is already eating the lunch of the luxury car companies, I don’t think he’ll be happy until he’s eating Toyota’s and Honda’s lunch.

#157 understood by few on 04.07.16 at 1:11 pm

#119 Mountain Dew on 04.07.16 at 12:24 am
He must have had a good down payment because he says he got a one year mortgage at 1.78 percent.

———————————-

That’s a one year rate at Vancity (previously mentioned by Garth). No one else has a rate anywhere close to that, so unless they are offering it again next year (doubtful, it’s a teaser based on them expecting rates to go up), he’s gonna be paying more next year.

BC only allows rent increases of 5% max per year. My bet is he’s in for a world of hurt when he tries to renew. Also, if he only put 5% down (totally possible, the rate still stands), he’d have about 2% equity IF prices hold (2% plus whatever principal he pays down).

#158 IHCTD9 on 04.07.16 at 1:20 pm

#56 preet89 on 04.06.16 at 8:29 pm

AMAZON.COM – has anyone over 40 heard of that company?
___________________________________

You have got to be kidding me.

Renew your efforts at tongue biting.

#159 IHCTD9 on 04.07.16 at 1:36 pm

#49 sockeye sam on 04.06.16 at 8:12 pm
#37 Hairhead
I’m in your hood. I know ,insane! In the twenty six years I’ve lived in this house in Dunbar I have never seen anything this crazy. They are pounding on doors almost begging me to sell.I’m asking why all of a sudden are the Chinese in such a rush to buy, one guy replied “because it’s crazy in China now”. What does that mean? I have no idea.
__________________________________________

SELL! Tell them to come back when they scrape together another million and get on that ASAP! You could be the King of kicking ass – or kicking yourself in the ass a few years from now!

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS BRO – GET ON IT NOW!

WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU WAITING FOR?!?

#160 Goofy 2 Shoes on 04.07.16 at 1:43 pm

#56 preet89

A group of us just had a conversation yesterday about this sort of thing. It’s funny how young people think we folk a bit longer in the tooth are against technology, it isn’t that way at all.

I have seen large technology changes since I started working in 1981. Some good and some not so good. I’ve ordered online but that comes at a cost. Your neighbour with a store selling that same stuff is now closing. Those jobs and businesses are going away. These are good jobs for people that need one. A lot of online shopping is done through companies that are not in your country let alone your geographical area.

What this means is that your neighbour (once he closes his business) is no longer paying taxes, his business isn’t paying taxes, and he might even be looking for a govt handout to survive. Do you see the problem here?

The convenience of not having to leave the house to shop or go to a brick and mortar store has consequences for society. Next time you buy something online, remember that patronizing your local stores is contributing to your local economy which has benefits far beyond the joy you feel when your item arrives by mail.
If paying a bit more at a physical store helps to keep people employed then I am happy to do it. I would much rather do that than just see my taxes go up to address the social problems that are created by losing jobs.

#161 IHCTD9 on 04.07.16 at 1:47 pm

#62 Let’s Get House Horny on 04.06.16 at 8:47 pm
#20 An honest realtor

Lol – nice bit of fear mongering there sport !

Yeah, just cast your common sense to the four winds and jump in and buy with both hands.

FOMO – buy now or spend the rest of your life living in regret about your poor decisions – great advice not.

_________________________________________

No kidding, Mr. Honest forgot to mention the GTA’s stagnant at best but mostly dropping wages, hellish congestion, permanent employers market, massive job losses in manufacturing, and the virtual certainty that there will always be many more workers than jobs thanks to the big enclaves drawing in immigrants from all over Canada.

Toronto had something to offer 25 years ago. All of that is pretty much a myth, known only to younger folks because realtors keep brining it up like it’s current reality…

Van had scenery, still does – just a lot more expensive. That’s pretty much it.

#162 Dups on 04.07.16 at 1:48 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/one-in-10-newer-toronto-condos-owned-by-foreign-buyers-cmhc/article29551058/

#163 IHCTD9 on 04.07.16 at 2:08 pm

#72 genbizx on 04.06.16 at 9:49 pm
Preet 89 – #55

I do remember being in my 20’s. I thought I was smart. I remember thinking I had lots figured out. Sounded a lot like you. Thinking my view and perspective was actually original and not something that had been fed to me by careful marketing and manipulation and just being like lots of people around me (the smart, socially conscious, advanced ones of course) Someday you’ll look at people younger than you and get it. (and find their arrogance either annoying or cute in a younger brother kind of way) You’ll see that the game changes when you get older. You’ll realize that a few new tech gadgets and some seemingly big advances really didn’t change much and that many things you thought were important just aren’t.
____________________________________________

And Preet – add to the above – if you’ve got any brains or luck at all, eventually you’ll realize that your Mom was right, your Dad was right, the old guy you worked for was right, your old teacher was right. With any luck you will come to realize the life experience of old wrinkly folks can be a crystal ball if you’ve come along far enough.

It takes a few years to realize this, but hopefully you’ll “get it” sooner than later.

#164 Ace Goodheart on 04.07.16 at 2:15 pm

RE: #156 Understood by Few:

“My bet is once the 3 is shipping reliably they’ll put even more money into R&D for the next step. Even more affordable, more range, full self driving etc. Elon is already eating the lunch of the luxury car companies, I don’t think he’ll be happy until he’s eating Toyota’s and Honda’s lunch.”

That’s exactly what I’m thinking too. I mean if these cars Tesla is building actually work (and from what I can find on the internet, they do) then Mr. Musk has created a product that not only rivals the current gasoline engine cars being sold by the large auto makers, but actually beats it hands down pretty much on every point.

Principal complaints about gasoline cars are always the same: they pollute, and they are very expensive to maintain and repair (also the cost of gasoline is another constant complaint). Enter the Tesla, zero maintenance, free “fill ups” at Tesla supercharge stations, and no emissions whatsoever.

If these cars actually work on a large scale mass produced basis, as opposed to being toys for the rich like they currently are, then this is a game changer. In a major way.

#165 Siva on 04.07.16 at 2:18 pm

Donald Trump could drive demand for Canadian housing: Royal Lepage

No, that’s not from Onion

#166 Shortymac on 04.07.16 at 2:20 pm

I had the weird thing happen today. I had a lady knock on my door today and ask me if I was looking to sell my house.

Since I rent I had nothing to offer her, and my landlord isn’t interested in selling either.

Is this a sign of desperation on a relator’s part or…?

#167 family beagle on 04.07.16 at 2:22 pm

Being human… Hehe. Only in lore. The entire species has been reclassified based on interaction with its host, juxta opera nostra.

#168 Billy Bob on 04.07.16 at 2:22 pm

#156 understood by few on 04.07.16 at 1:05 pm
YES LOL
GM has had bailout after bail and nearly gone bakrupt numeruos times..Their a joke…OH BUY ME I GOT WiFi LOL.

And for the Market guys.
There are some Tusts doing very well paying 6-8% as people are chasing yield…They have too.
ZJG.TO broke out of a bull pennant if you know any TA…Go Gold shares as no one owns them these days. PERFECT

#169 Ronaldo on 04.07.16 at 2:31 pm

#142 – peepeepoopoo

”otherwise low rates and relaxed lending standards will make it business as usual. even if properties don’t sell, carrying costs are so low.”

Carrying costs are so low? You’re joking right? For a city that ranks 22nd in average family incomes with Toronto ranked 21st of the major cities in Canada, what is happening right now has the makings of a major disaster around the corner. Low wages, lowest interests rates in history and highest prices ever. You havn’t been around very long have you?

#170 Victor on 04.07.16 at 2:39 pm

I would not say condos grew a lot in the last 2-3 years in south Etobicoke. We will probably buy a condo soon since houses become insanely expensive, for cash mostly, and to lose less when this pyramid collapses. It will collapse very fast as soon people smell declining prices. The new down payment rules had an effect, just opposite for a start. In my area homes were sold in few days in March, now I see more and more homes hanging around.

#171 TRT on 04.07.16 at 2:56 pm

6% of homes built since 2010 owned by foreigners in YVR.

20% dollar value of total sales since 2010.

Now, here is what they left out:

1) foreign students, and temporary immigrants such as those with Supervisa do not categorize as foreign, since they are residents in Canada, even if temporarily.

2) the boom in Vancouver is caused by this trickle down effect. 1 house sell for $4 million plus in Vancouver city. Whereas 1 house is a $1million in suburbs.

Obsessed. Sad. — Garth

#172 Mark on 04.07.16 at 2:58 pm

“Then why isn’t the company profitable? Easy, they plough every cent they can into R&D”

Ploughing money into R&D doesn’t affect profitability. Only someone who thinks that you (or the public) are completely ignorant about how accounting works would get away with saying something so dumb like that (Amazon pulls the same nonsense).

Aggressive re-investment is perhaps an excuse for an otherwise profitable company not to pay a dividend to its shareholders/owners. But it is not an excuse for lack of profitability.

“What this means is that your neighbour (once he closes his business) is no longer paying taxes, his business isn’t paying taxes, and he might even be looking for a govt handout to survive. Do you see the problem here?”

A few small business owners I know simply gave up and got government jobs. They wonder why they ever bothered with small business, when they could just do a 9-5 with government, not worry about collecting money from customers, business development, paying staff, or doing anything of the sort.

Even at the universities these days, the most patronized booths at the career fairs are not those of private medium sized business, but rather, those of government.

Its kind of sad (like WalMark’s constant trolling), really, that an entire generation or two believe that the only way to get ahead in life is to find a cushy government job and ride it to as many pay increments and pension credits as they can.

#173 TRT on 04.07.16 at 3:01 pm

Obsessed. Sad. — Garth

That’s cause your side is more than obsessed with hiding the truth and resorting to personal attacks.

As I said this week, being a victim brings a certain perverse comfort because you can blame others for your own inadequacies. All you do on this blog is that. Obsessed. Sad. — Garth

#174 Mark on 04.07.16 at 3:03 pm

“Is this a sign of desperation on a relator’s part or…?”

Sounds like it. Realtors live and die on transactions. When they’re done talking the market up, they’ll probably be out there talking the market down right into the depths of despair to collect a commission.

Of course, the problem within the Realtor “profession” is that the senior members of the profession are, in large numbers of instances, sitting on significant personal investment portfolios of real estate. While the younger Realtors have nothing but a big mortgage on a single principal residence, and maybe a condo or two. The senior Realtors don’t want to see their properties go down. The junior Realtors need the market to actually clear so they can make some money doing transactions. Expect to see some infighting in the profession, especially as the gravy train is diminished.

#175 Smoking Man on 04.07.16 at 3:10 pm

#51 amazon girl on 04.06.16 at 8:17 pm
I am worried smoking man are you felling better?
where are yours
……
Felling better now
The sickness to fast, to severe, lank of treatment. Only thing that macks sence. It was hit. The assassin’s underestimate the hosts characters.

#176 Dan on 04.07.16 at 3:27 pm

No bidding wars in Montreal. Ever. And Montreal looks like a city. Turdonto, not.

#177 Nemesis on 04.07.16 at 3:30 pm

#ThursdayMischief…

[Guardian] – Panama Papers reveal offshore secrets of China’s red nobility

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/06/panama-papers-reveal-offshore-secrets-china-red-nobility-big-business

[SCMP] – China was largest market for ‘Panama Papers’ law firm: investigation

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1934168/china-was-largest-market-panama-papers-law-firm

#SayItIsn’tSo!…

[VancouverSun] – Vancouver linked to Panamanian company at centre of global furor

http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/vancouver-linked-to-panamanian-company-at-centre-of-global-furor

#ChineseLeadership… #SuddenlyExtendHospitalityToSwiss…

[Xinhua] – China, Switzerland vow to upgrade cooperation

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-04/07/c_135259225.htm

#InOtherNews…

#It’sBetterInBC… #No,Really!…

[TimesColonist] – Drunken Hockey Moms Brawl at Osoyoos Tournament

“Alcohol is believed to have played a large factor in the very poor choices made by these parents.” – RCMP Spokesperson

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/b-c/drunken-b-c-parents-drop-the-gloves-at-kids-hockey-tourney-1.2225746

#SmokingMan’sLocationRevealed!…
#PalmSpringsProselytizing?… #Oh,TheHumanity!

[Guardian] – 20,000 lesbians in the desert: welcome to the Dinah, a world without men

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/apr/07/dinah-lesbian-festival-women-palm-springs

#178 Rational Optimist on 04.07.16 at 3:36 pm

That’s a beautiful picture.

#179 small business on 04.07.16 at 3:48 pm

#172 Mark

A few small business owners I know simply gave up and got government jobs. They wonder why they ever bothered with small business, when they could just do a 9-5 with government, not worry about collecting money from customers, business development, paying staff, or doing anything of the sort.

Not all entrepreneurs are Elon Musk – or even entrepreneur enough to run a small business.

They will just fall back to become employees.
Nothing unusual.

#180 kommykim on 04.07.16 at 3:58 pm

RE:

#58 Cottingham a bargain on 04.06.16 at 8:34 pm
Is no one curious to know where and what RE Garth bought recently for good value as he mentions?

Haven’t you noticed the link to Garth’s new business? It’s a just bit below the mug of some bearded guy near the top right of this page.

#181 Goofy 2 Shoes on 04.07.16 at 4:25 pm

#172 Mark

A few small business owners I know simply gave up and got government jobs. They wonder why they ever bothered with small business, when they could just do a 9-5 with government, not worry about collecting money from customers, business development, paying staff, or doing anything of the sort.
————————–
Two points to add:
ONE: Employees frequently gripe they don’t ever make enough money. Being a business owner means to take on personal financial risk, take on immense responsibility (the buck stops with you – no going home and leaving someone else to fix it or just quit when you are unhappy), and you are constantly at the mercy of so many variables you cannot control.

This is one reason why it is unfair to focus on expecting businesses to pay more, business owners to pay more. The higher the risk the better the return should be if you are successful.

TWO: When you invest in your own business and do well you are expected these days to pay more taxes and not try to defer to sometime later (like your retirement). Someone who invests in another company (think funds etc.) and enjoys good return from someone else’s business is able to have control of what they redeem/cash to limit their income to reduce taxes. Why are these two situations viewed so differently?

#182 Move on VREU on 04.07.16 at 4:31 pm

Looks like delusional pricing has come to Vancouver Island and guess what – things are selling.

Yes, houses that could not sell for $650 are being re-listed at $750 and selling – in bedroom communities even. Sellers took the 20% increase in 2015 assessments that all BC homes were granted, and are throwing on another 15 or 20 percent increase in the listing prices.

Everybody saw the incredible March sales numbers, the 16% price increases, the dried up listings, the small, albeit increasing bidding wars, and the fact that the feds are so dovish. Renters have been pushed out as buyers move in, forcing rents up and a near 0% vacancy rate.

An old financial advisor warned that the feds projections are always overly optimistic and now it looks like the little chickens will wait until June, and then of course, they will put it off again. ‘Soon’ and ‘next year’ are the common refrain of bears and the of the feds.

Oh boy, lots of boomers cashing out in Vancouver, allowing the poor Island boomers to make a windfall as well, all the while driving up prices for the young families trying to get into the market.

Looks like the Vancouver price contagion has spread to the Island. And Islanders all already delusional with pricing here – the Vancouver capital fleeing foreign capital is just stoking that inherent greed.

But hey, we will leave it to VREU to explain the price increases and the notably ‘different’ conditions from a year ago….

Some say, whats the big deal – rates WILL go up – rent and enjoy life. Of course, rates will go up – but the impact will take years to materialize and all the while prices will keep going up as buyers ‘jump in’ to avoid the new rates – just like they did with the new down payment rules (and are still doing) and just like they have down for years with every measure ostensibly designed to curb the market.

Has anybody analyzed the impact of all the measures designed to curb the market? These include:
– elimination of zero down;
– the elimination of the 40 years amortization;
– then elimination of 35 year amortization;
– then elimination of 30 year without 25% down;
– then changed HELOC rules;
– then stronger capitalization requirements by banks;
– then changed qualification requirements – at the posted 5 year; and
– then new downpayment rules.

Gee, that list of ‘interventionist’ policies certainly did a lot for the market. Well, it did, it just did the opposite of the stated goal of those measures – as the market just keeps going up and up and up.

Two years ago, posters were absolutely mocked for saying houses would go to 2 million in Vancouver shortly. The average detached house is now $1.78 million. Gee, that did not take long.

So you can wait for years, and prices keep going up, and then wait many more for them to come back down to where they are today.

Life is short – so if you want to wait another 10 years for prices to come back down after a 13 year bull run, go for it.

#183 waiting on the westcoast on 04.07.16 at 4:47 pm

#172 Mark on 04.07.16 at 2:58 pm says…
““Then why isn’t the company profitable? Easy, they plough every cent they can into R&D”

Ploughing money into R&D doesn’t affect profitability. Only someone who thinks that you (or the public) are completely ignorant about how accounting works would get away with saying something so dumb like that (Amazon pulls the same nonsense). Aggressive re-investment is perhaps an excuse for an otherwise profitable company not to pay a dividend to its shareholders/owners. But it is not an excuse for lack of profitability.”

Mark – actually your 1st paragraph is incorrect and demonstrates a lot of ignorance about accounting.

Investing in R&D affects profitability in the year its expensed (or over time if capitalized as an asset). If Amazon or Tesla heavily invest in R&D it radically affects their profitability.

Now – you may disagree with their thought process/strategy in investing heavily on R&D and that they could monetize more now but that doesn’t change how the accounting works.

I am personally not aware of the cost of goods for a Tesla so they could be selling them below their lifetime value to the company (many tech firms do this to help get early traction on their product or service). That said, they cannot do it long term as they will eventually run out of venture funding to carry them while they prove out their businesses model.

#184 family beagle on 04.07.16 at 4:48 pm

#166 Shortymac on 04.07.16 at 2:20 pm
I had the weird thing happen today. I had a lady knock on my door today and ask me if I was looking to sell my house.

Since I rent I had nothing to offer her, and my landlord isn’t interested in selling either.

Is this a sign of desperation on a relator’s part or…?

….

Desperate for product. Next time ask for a cash incentive to lobby your landlord. Request $500 to take a message.

#185 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 04.07.16 at 5:16 pm

Why do we always guess that the new US job numbers are low paying service/retail? Doesn’t anyone out there have a report by sector/industry/field that says “Analyst, Engineers, etc… are way down… fast food, walmart greeters are way way up.”

There’s a job that needs doing!

#186 Smartalox on 04.07.16 at 6:15 pm

@ Ace Goodheart #131:

A friend tells the story of sitting in a first-year Commerce class at Queens University, circa 1990. The prof went around the room and asked all the students what they wanted to ‘be’ when they graduated.

Elon Musk was one of the students. When asked what he wanted to be, he said, in his usual deadpan tone, ‘An Industrialist’.

Everybody laughed. Somebody likened him to being the next candidate to play a James Bond villain.

Not many people laughing now, though.

#187 Smartalox on 04.07.16 at 6:37 pm

Re: Tesla and R&D

Tesla invests very little in it’s own R&D. It does invest a great deal in infrastructure, and in product testing, but most of the technology that sets Tesla’s cars apart from others is bought knowledge:

– partnering with Lotus to build shells for the ‘Roadster’, while learning about auto bodies, suspensions and handling.
– partnering with Jaguar to learn about production methods using aluminium bodies, and integrated chassis
– a lot of battery and powertrain research that interests Tesla is being conducted by independent startups, that Tesla engages in ‘projects’.

It’s not a very efficient way of conducting R&D; the larger companies charge you a premium, because you’re a low-volume customer, and a potential competitor. The deep-core R&D, the ‘independent’ startups are pretty intense. If your technology impresses, you get funded. If your technology doesn’t impress, your funding dries up, and your startup folds. That’s the way it is in tech, these days.

Not like the R&D labs of old, (Nortel / BNR, GE, Motorola, Xerox, Lockheed) where projects succeeded or failed, but the R&D teams were kept on, because business leaders recognized that the real, long-term value of R&D investments was in people, and the knowledge that they gained and retained. That value can last companies for generations.

By comparison, the value generated from modern, product-centric R&D only lasts as long as the product development cycle. Once the product has gone to market, and the knowledge base is laid off, everyone leaves, the knowledge that you invested in dissipates, like dust in the wind.

#188 East of GTA on 04.08.16 at 8:47 am

“Does this mean only fools would buy now?
Not in some markets, and not anywhere if they understand and accept the risks, or aren’t putting too much of their net worth into one, swollen asset.”
We live in Oshawa and bought a new build in Newcastle in 2014 and will be moving in this July…spent the last 2 years renovating our current home in Oshawa and just sold last week….both homes increased $100k in that period. I agree, you have to know your area and assume risk…it’s not for everybody

#189 neo on 04.08.16 at 9:37 am

Hmmmm….41,000 jobs in March in Canada, much stronger than the States. U.S. Q1 GDP being revised down to 0.3%.

All this hand wringing by Garth about the disparity in the Canadian and U.S. economies is being turned on its head so far this year.

After three years of declines a month or two of good data is great. But I wouldn’t jump to too many conclusions just yet. — Garth

#190 jojo on 04.08.16 at 2:08 pm

Kudos on the picture Garth. The Hospital for Sick Children (Sickkids) is truly amazing and has special meaning for my hubby and I. They saved my brother many years ago, they gave the then infant son of my husband’s a new heart (and chance at life), another friend’s son life changing neuro treatment on their new two year old son’s brain after being misdiagnosed locally, and we’re very fortunate to be connected to a doctor on staff there and another who trained there in oncology years ago. I’ve also volunteered there on in the past and witnessed the courage of the kids being treated. If you want to put your real estate problems and or general daily grumblings into perspective.. drop by Sickkids. Seriously, talk with some kids and their families. Guaranteed you’ll leave a little less stressed. Ontario and Torinto are very lucky to have such a world class facility. Again, thanks Garth.

#191 Paully on 04.08.16 at 7:39 pm

RE: #46 Paully on 04.06.16 at 8:05 pm

“A commercial-residential property 45 minutes north of downtown Toronto that I reference in the link on this site’s home page. — Garth”

Garth, when you get the store back to the way that you want it, you should consider having a Greater Fool meet and greet event there. I, for one, would make the trip.

Paully