Not long ago, in the Kingdom of 416, a nice Type A couple decided to sell the mid-town semi they’d just renovated. The lot is 26 feet wide, property taxes about eleven grand a year, asking price $1,699,000. With Toronto’s double land transfer tax, that actually works out to $1,760,000. To buy it would require a down of (mimimum) $355,000, with a monthly of $7,100. To carry that, you should probably earn at least $255,000.
By the way, a mere 210,000 people in the entire nation make that kind of dough. And of those just 64,000 live in the GTA, among slightly more than six million citizens who earn less. Envy.
But in the Kingdom, it was not enough.
There were six offers for this skinny, sexy sliver of an abode on Cottingham Street during the first week on the market, and the winner ended up paying $1,895,000. With tax, that’s $1,963,000. And the buyer was a single guy. A young professional, who apparently requires four bedrooms and three baths.
Okay, so this isn’t typical. In 416 these days the average detached is fetching (say the realtors) $1,211,459. In the burbs, that drops to $816,000, but you then require a soul transplant. For the entire mega-region, including the sale of all condos, townhouses, singles and parking spaces (you can pay as much as fifty grand for one), the average property costs a few bucks less than six hundred thousand. Five years ago, that number was $431,000, or 39% less.
In those five years, the cost of a mortgage has barely moved – down just thirty basis points. In 2011, for the first time ever, household debt touched a level equal to 150% of disposable income. Today it’s 13% higher and growing at the fastest rate in half a decade. Over this time the price of oil collapsed by 70%, unemployment increased substantially, and economic growth fell by half. Canadians threw out Con governments in Alberta and Ottawa and replaced them with tax-and-spend, high-deficit, left-of-centre administrations.
So, in summary: Bad economy. Flat incomes. Scant rich people. Higher tax. Big deficits. Property inflation. Way more family debt. And yet we’re among the spendiest and house-horniest people on the planet – a land where it’s made to seem normal that some single dude in a leased Boxster lays down almost two large for half a house.
This worries some people. After all, mortgage debt is not like a car loan. It’s amortized, and can take most of a career to pay off. And while mortgage rates have been reasonably stable for the past five years, most economists don’t expect that to hold for the next five. Now that the future will be peppered with big government deficits and stimulative over-spending, it’s anticipated central bank rates have hit the floor and can only move in a single direction with those in the States.
Days ago Canada was listed among seven countries that are “most vulnerable to a debt crisis” within the next 36 months by US-based Forbes magazine. Analysts there (and elsewhere) aren’t too fussed about our shiny new Lib government borrowing bigtime, but rather they worry about the mountains of debt being accumulated by households without any visible way of paying it all back. If the real estate market just flatlines, let alone corrects, a lot of people will have gambled and lost. As for the larger economy, record levels of borrowing mean a ton of our GDP is being financed by Mr. & Mrs. Hipster, who may now need several years (or longer) to see incomes rise and debt ratios reduced. The conclusion – we’re vulnerable. To a jobs drought. Higher borrowing costs. A shock of any kind.
It’s not just Forbes, of course. Those guys are only the latest to look at Canada and wonder what we could possibly be thinking. Add in the IMF, the Economist, every major US debt-rating agency, the World Bank and now the Bank for International Settlements, which is the globe’s de facto central banker. Two years ago the BIS warned us to slow down on the debt binge and cited early indications of a coming debt shock. As a result, we borrowed more. Look at house prices in Van and 416 in the last twenty-four months.
The good news is that Norway and Australia are more pooched than us. And meanwhile the indie Parliament Budget Officer in Ottawa disagrees with Forbes that we will hit the wall by 2019. Instead, he figures it won’t happen until 2020. What a relief. At that time the amount of money we all spend on debt servicing – even with historically low interest rates – will achieve a record level.
This, he says, “will be beyond historical experience.”
Well, if the young professional who bought the semi above has a five-year, variable-rate mortgage, he’ll have spent $787,000 in down payment and monthlies by then to live there, and still owe $1.12 million. Let us pray for him.
Nah. Let’s just watch.
212 comments ↓
Thank You.
“The good news is that Norway and Australia are more pooched than us”
Bang on Garth – our real estate market here in Australia is several levels of insanity ahead of yours.
Heavily indebted Australians in love with real estate pornography are going to be taken outback to the woodshed !
Woohee! The blog lives.
Aside from our appreciation for this blog, there is one thing we can all agree on: The analysts at the National Bank should start talking to each other before talking to the news. They seem to be all over the map.
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/3/30/Skyrocketing-housing-in-Toronto-and-Vancouver-makes-sense-National-Bank.aspx
Places like this make me worried:
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16746960/630-LOWER-CRESCENT-Britannia-Beach-British-Columbia-V0N1J0
Listed at $795. Assessed at $415!
New normal – or temporarily crazy? I suspect many recent sales in Squamish are to young families that are buying at these new highs with the largest mortgages they can get. Driving to Vancouver is ok for a year… but what happens if the value of your house goes down, you’ve only paid 5% down so you are immediately underwater (realtor commissions, property transfer tax, etc.) and you really don’t want to drive to Vancouver everyday after two years of grinding it out… Jobs in Squamish? Good luck…. there is a reason prices have always been low there.
Hey Garth, I think that moderating all the hate is slowly infecting your soul, therefore you must find a way to solve the problem. Anonymity is what drives most of these cowardly unthoughtful posts…. so rectify it. I glean insight from your balanced blog writing coupled with some of the back and forth down below. I think you are a great guy and if possible should keep the blog going, even if only on a diminished basis. I try to listen to fair-minded intelligent people in order to keep my thoughts straight and you are top of the list. Maybe a post on who you relish reading or listening too each day to inform yourself would be interesting and helpful to others. Your blog should be fun and rewarding for you, so I hope it regains that distinction in short order. Many, many people love and appreciate your efforts here, you hairy old dog loving bastard.
Bricks and Mortar investment, I wonder if this young professional follows the Rule of 90? If he does he is living WELL!!
I soiled my pants reading this. But what will happen to the tsx and pension funds?
If people are pooched in debt and a bunch are retiring how will stocks perform going into 2020?!
Oh geez i got to go again….
Normal programming resumed…
M41BC
The opportunity cost on that wall display is huge!
Not first on maybe one of the last entries.
Worst case post on Smoking man’s fetid blog.
Do we know that he only put minimum down. Maybe he bought with cash. There seems to be lots of money out there. Houses seem to sell for astronomical amounts and then they are torn down and rebuilt. It can’t all be debt.
FIRST!!!
For respect. Garth knows I’m reading.
No extra BS.
I must respond to several hateful comments toward Americans I read the past three days. This is a perfect depiction why Americans are smarter than we. They’re dumb? Hardly. They are celebrating a booming economy as we begin a painful decline with no real end in sight. We learned nothing from the collapse of the global economy and what created it. I love our neighbours South and because of their spirit I will be seeking permanent residency. I moved here nine years ago and nearly everything that was pushed upon me as sale points is now obviously a lie. I have never seen more fakes and $50,000/year millionaires in my life. In fact the support I have received has been from my Ameircan friends. Not my Canadian friends. I would rather know where I stand with an American than wonder about the authenticity of the great Canadian compliment. It is forever shrouded in other motives.
And an example why they are smarter. Americans have fun. We walk around with frowns and overly polite sorrys. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CHK2Y5RiMnQ
Don’t worry about the single young professional.
Probably his parents own a couple single detached houses in Kerrisdale YVR and sold them to HAM or “almost HAM” and netted $6M.
Then sent $2.5M to the dead son for the abode plus enough left over for a corvette, a Lexus and a Ford pickup.
Cheers
OMG!!! Are we in a housing apocalypse? Gee! Almost two million for a single person to live? Maybe he is the one making 300k per year?
Overall our housing is so out of reality, not many people can afford a SFH in the t dot anymore, is just so gross and dangerous, even you put all your money in the house or condo, you got no more money to spend in your own neighbourhood or city, your belt will be tighten every year, shopping for deals every week during grocery, isnt what we want for our life? It’s not funny and this status quo need to stop, any economic sharp turn, lots of people will go under water and it’s gonna be very ugly, hope this day never come, but with the record level houshold debt, we are walking on a very thin line, very thin, like a hair thin, God Bless Us All.
Hey I get all the quality I need at Dollarama.. which is now upgrading itself with associated rampant inflation…
Geez I had only sold my house and plunged it all into their stock 5 years ago… 1 million into 10 million.. damn
“Dollarama raises top prices to $4, stresses quality over quantity”
Not dead son, dear son
Great blog Garth. Very informative and insightful.
Hopefully the bigots got the message.
On Bnn today a realtor said that lots of young educated people are flocking to Toronto and Vancouver to start their professional careers.Its where the high paying jobs and great lifestyle choices.
We recently had Jonathon Tepper from Variant Perception visit Australia for an in depth look at our markets and his summation and final conclusion caused a bit of a storm – the level of denial present in the media was astonishing.
http://www.domain.com.au/news/doomsday-theorists-morbid-obsession-with-australian-property-20160225-gn3173/
In the North West of Sydney in a place called Kellyville (former cow paddocks) 40 km from the City Centre 350sqm blocks of land are selling for more than $500k…the cost of land is absolutely insane..
http://www.realestate.com.au/buy/property-land-in-kellyville%2c+nsw+2155%3b/list-1?activeSort=list-date
Australians have taken total leave of their mental faculties….
The first question that comes to mind when I read this is “which actor should the guys behind The Big Short cast as Garth when they come to do a movie about Canada?”
If more and more discretionary income goes to manage household debt, then it follows that there is less discretionary income to make other consumer purchases. It’s one reason retail is suffering and retail stores are closing. If we don’t buy consumer goods the factories and people that make them suffer. The economy as a whole suffers. A bright spot was the announcement in todays paper that all 850 A&W outlets will now use only French’s mustard and ketchup. Shows the power of Facebook, the herd, and Canadian nationalism lurking in the shadows. Beware Heinz and other big businesses headquartered outside Canada who think they can step on the Beaver’s tail.
The whole world moving towards a debt crisis. Not quite Infinite QE has run its course……I do not think it worked…….so same problem but more money in play now.
Tick Tock
Tulips anyone?
“Winner”?
Uhhh….strange definition of such.
Good lord,
All that, for 1.9 million?
Here is what you get in Kirkland, for 1.2 million USD. A stone’s throw from a nice village center, high tech offices, etc etc:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10802-103rd-Ave-NE-Kirkland-WA-98033/84757485_zpid/
Hmm, which would I choose?
Actually, neither. Even if he earned 300k, it is far too much. The traditional ratio was 3x income, meaning that he should spend 900k at most. To spend more means robbing oneself of retirement contributions and other forms of saving (not to mention vacations, dogs and guns).
a mere 210,000 people in the entire nation make that kind of dough
So, let me tell you what is going to happen now:
Soon, nobody can afford these mortgages any more, at which time, mortgages will be interest-only, and people will no longer kill the principle, as it is the only way to afford such a house.
With interest-only, you can buy a $10M house, if the interest rate is low enough (say 0.3%).
You read it here first, folks!
Interest-only mortgages coming to Canada, at a broker near you!
Wikipedia still calls them “extremely rare” in Canada.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest-only_loan
My guess is that this is going to change.
Bram
With Canada looking more like Cuba daily with less disposable income due to housing costs (Cuba just has hardly any disposable income..), let’s look at what sells in Cuba – Food, Cheap Rum and essentials like clothes, back packs for kids.
So invest in essentials….The need to have items as compared to the want to have.
What great choices house owners have made for their future.
Enough with canada following the US with rate hikes…. Omg they mite raise .25 as well the horror! That’s as far as they will go, if the economy is so awesome in USA why would another .25 matter. We were supposed to have 4 this year. Looks like there won’t be any. One and done. Qe4 is coming
#6 ole Doberman’s comment make me wonder what the retirement tsunami is going to do to the economy in general. Japan’s economy has been either flat lined or in official recession since the mid-90’s so 20+ years & counting. There are a number of reasons cited for this long term stagnation but one reason that keeps on coming up is the fact Japan’s population has a heavy senior weighting. The rest of the world is also aging & I think that demographic element is going to have more an effect on interest rates & economic growth than expected. In fact, the rapid rise in retirees – as per a recent column posted by Garth nine thousand Canadian residents are retiring each week – may well do more to keep interest rates at historic lows regardless of what ‘should’ occur based on historic norms.
I’m willing to bet the ones buying at these rediculos prices voted for Wynne, belive in climate change, and to this day hate Rob Ford.
Colony of the mindless.
When housing flatlines… only then will people begin to realize their house is a money pit. But right now, everyone is a believer.
The young guy above isn’t a typical buyer, obviously. But it’s a reminder that the average buyer must also add repairs and renos to the list of expenses (Garth constantly gives us the list, so I won’t repeat it all).
And, has anyone gone through a home owners insurance policy lately? These days, deductibles are EXPENSIVE and EVERYTHING is an ACT OF GOD not covered. So pray you don’t have a flood, hurricane, earthquake, falling trees, etc.
Also, if you sell, always remember to deduct your Home Depot receipts from your house profits. Owning a home REALLY IS… PRICELESS! Everything you do (i.e. fence, deck, new cabinets, Jacuzzi tub, landscaping, concrete, etc) eventually comes out of your end directly. I consider them gifts for the next owner.
Crazy times. You are a genius to sell RIGHT NOW.. and a fool to buy. Better to wait and rent this one out.
I’m upgrading my abode. Rental. High rise. Brand new building. Suite never been lived in. 8 blocks from Downtown, 2 blocks from the river valley. Underground heated parking/with separate bicycle storage room(I cycle and drive a car), air conditioning in-suite, 5 appliances including laundry in-suite/w/storage, blinds included, security, on-site office, fake hardwood flooring(allergies), balcony, sky view. 1st month is rent free, free cable & internet for 1 year. $1250/mo. all in. Single Boomer.
Call me crazy.
Oh, almost forgot. Fitness room, of course.
Ok I will be the first to say that I actually think that the house mentioned above is a bargain at that price.
It will be 2.5mill by 2020 easy IMO.
The location for single detached homes where that house is located is a price safe as the U.S presidents bunker
It is not detached. — Garth
# 26 james 1.2 million
Notice how much it has increased in price since last sale?
Last sold: Feb 2006 for $220,000
with 1.9 million, let’s see, spend $500k USD on investment immigration and you still have a cool $1 million and more to spend on a house. probably can get a mansion on the beach somewhere in Florida.
Too bad the US isn’t dong better, faster, and raising rates quicker. Not that I want my neighbour to lose their house, but please let the RE market return to sanity.
House prices are ridiculous, when the gov’t starts to raise taxes to pay for all this stimulus, many will be squeezed further.
Garth, have you seen this short dramatization about T2’s large deficit? http://www.ntrc.info/doorbell.html
Wow…how true is that!
Garth, please keep writing, please allow comments. Please react to out-of-bounds crap fast and hard. I see no reason not to implement IP bans on a first offense.
We need democratic reform in this country, and that means robust, probably anonymous, but above all sincere and respectful debate. The CBC had the chance to lead the way, but their approach to dealing with the trolls is to eliminate anonymous posting. Instead of leading the charge, they are running away. You’ve been doing the opposite. For the sake of our democracy, as well our financial health, please keep it up. Maybe this will be the place where people learn how to be responsible citizens in the digital age.
Garth any chance we could get a market /supply and demand update on the condo market in Toronto?
#22 the Jaguar on 03.30.16 at 7:34 pm
What a bizarre commentary… I am pretty sure A&W is an American entity…
Thanks for sticking it out Garth.
____________________________________________
64000 high earners in the GTA means scant earners, not scant rich people. I for one wish I were the latter.
So, in summary: trough economy. Trough incomes. Lots of rich people. Rising tax, property values, and stimulus. Increasing credit creation.
Steady as she goes, plus for added benefit all the central banks have coordinated and decided cheap money and a declining greenback are good for longer.
What could go wrong?
This might explain why Millenials are overpaying for RE.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-30/depressing-survey-results-show-how-extremely-stupid-america-has-become
I’m sure we are no exception.
Not to worry.
All the economists Garth mentions are wrong.
Why?
Well first, we’re really special here in Canada.
And second… because its 2016!
Thanks, Garth;
Indeed; this “Will be beyond historical experience”.
While I am (and will remain) a thankful Can-Am expatriate who deeply loves the country that adopted me, afforded me its protection, and gave me so many opportunities, that fact in no way renders me an “ex-patriot”. I am saddened by the sorry state of my home and native land; the country that gave me birth and nurtured me throughout my formative years.
Well, it is what it is. For years, Canadians have enjoyed throwing barbs and shooting jibes at their southern neighbor; all the while insisting that they were somehow ‘different’, unique and insulated by a superior set of national characteristics that entitled them to express their own brand of National Exceptionalism.
Canadian Chauvinism aside, the numbers are starting to get downright scary:
GDP Quar Growth rate from 0.6% to 0.2%
GDP Annual Growth rate from 1.1% to 0.5%
Unemployment Mon. rate from 7.2% to 7.3% (troublesome for this time of year)
Inflation Mon. rate from 2% to 1.4%
Balance of trade Mon. from -$631Mil CAD to -$655Mil CAD
Import price Mon. index from 129 to 132 (2.3% monthly)
Gold reserves (Quar) from 2.99 tonnes to 1.7 tonnes (betcha didn’t know that one!)
Fiscal expenditure (Mon) from $20732Mil CAD to $23732Mil CAD
Manufacturing production (Mon) from -0.5% to -1.1%
Household debt to income rose from 166% to 168% this past quarter.
And yet, in spite of these numbers, Consumer Confidence rose from 81.2 to 84.4 and Consumer spending rose from $1001582Mil CAD last Quarter to $1004848Mil CAD.
Garth, the choice might well be between “Let us pray for them” (sic) or “Nah… Let’s just watch”. I’m not at all religious; not one bit. But I think I’ll pray anyway. It can’t hurt, right???
Hello,
My humble opinion about re market in Canada
T2 is gonna put back mortgages at 40ys
#12 Outta Here Dear on 03.30.16 at 7:24 pm
Thank you. A great post. Appreciated deeply.
Garth what you report must make U depressed; makes me depressed! But you’re on point. In our little Hood the renos are going full throttle. Another (2nd) place just sold off for over $1m (inner western 905). It’s insane. Time to get outa Dodge; the loonies have taken over. Whatever happened to simple, clean and modest shelter and a fantastic focus on family and friends? What I’m witnessing is house flipping and staging nutsy on steroids. Very pathetic really. Sad too.
Wow. I wonder when people will just say “ya know…I don’t think that house is good value for the price” and walk away?
Glad you are still writing, Garth :)
#37 Chris on 03.30.16 at 8:08 pm
with 1.9 million, let’s see, spend $500k USD on investment immigration and you still have a cool $1 million and more to spend on a house. probably can get a mansion on the beach somewhere in Florida.
////////////////////////////
Hey Chris and co, not right on the beach about 2 blocks away.Could stop your house from being washed away.
Rich people problems…
M41BC
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2844-Abaco-Ln-Jacksonville-Beach-FL-32250/82980187_zpid/
Average debt is an interesting thing. Wasn’t there an analysis that showed many older families and empty nesters were doing ok, but younger families shouldering large amounts of debt? If this is the case, a shock would be better absorbed by the first groups while the latter group could be in for a world of hurt. Does this stratification in debt load have any sort of unique ramifications if there is a meltdown? Are we talking about record number of bankruptcies?
Kind of funny but really very scary. There is going to be some hurting folks eventually. Probably a lot sooner rather than later.
A truly scary thought is my wifes job for example. She works for the govt. and we always shake our heads at the thought of every pension deduction from her pay is going to someone who is already retired. Talk about robbing Peter to pay Paul!
It is certainly going to be a different world a short time from now.
Garth….yes, let’s watch. For those on this blog, we have been watching for seven years…so what is a few more? Or maybe the question is who cares? There are so many factors you are not considering including wealth transfers from within families. What is the current Canadian foreclosure rate? Exactly….not a peep there. You can trumpet on with the same argument year over year but maybe there are other things to consider? Do we have a global currency crisis in play? Could that lead to a global perception that when priced in Canadian dollars and considering quality of life in Canada it is a fair deal? How about the asset bubble called the stock market when it continues to rise only because of artificially suppressed interest rates even in light of declining corporate earnings?
Nah…..you are right…..or at least one day will be because when you have been on the same argument for seven years the odds of eventually being right must tip in your favour?
Geez I don’t feel that special any more…………I’m not one of the 210,000………….I only grossed $170K last year.
Funny thing is, there’s no way in hell that I’d consider spending 30% (using the mortgage lenders GDSR recommendation) of that on shelter.
Imagine, $51K a year for simply a roof over your head………..I’d haeveto be nucking futs !!
That place, that price, those carry costs just do not compute to my little world.
Different country, different values. Maybe better, or worse, but I think outside of two cities 416 & 906 very similar.
I can’t wrap my head around the danger present in those RE markets…. I keep thinking about the investment potential of all those future mortgage payments!
I don’t like cities. Congestion, no acreage, air, water, light pollution – who really “needs” it? For what? A few extra $$?? NO! I can drive to visit my few scattered relatives, and shop in the big towns a few times a year.
Treasure our ‘dairy air’ deer, turkey, and mostly the Calm!!
It is all what we value, mileage will vary.
Hey dogs. I build houses and love the hipster nation. They and their families paying me their lives’ savings plus much of their future earnings. Unique experience as i have built mansions in Sea to Sky country and regular homes in Windsor ON. Price point difference between the two regions is at least 6:1. Vancity used to be nice but now is overrun with douchebags. Toronto too for that matter. Culture of nothing. Work your mundane job, come home, watch crap on the big screen tv and repeat. Lol find a life everyone. Whistler powder is gone in an hour, weather is horrawful yet its the best place on earth ha. Coastal BC is beautiful no doubt. Keeping up with the Joneses and robbing inheritances is too common. Tulip mania in Van for sure. Everyone living on credit and equity. Most people really hand to mouth, illusion of wealth. Canadians in general seem to be smug souls, unsubstantiated of course, what have we done lately to back up the attitude? Inferiorty complex so pitiful as compared to ‘Merica. Detroit sees more concerts in a summer than a lifetime in either of our “world class” cities. Casucks can be so provincial in their thinking, isolated people in a large country i guess. Poor education here too. All adds up to insanity. Got into the trade as i observed the herd and their insecurities. Squamish is funny as its a rainy, windy dump between two better spots. Ski bums who can’t afford whistler and cidiots commuting to Van justify the stupidity. Cant wait to build dozens of houses in Squampton and charge all the dummies for the pleasure. I will rent and ski weekdays, 20 cm rule lol, in an attempt to avoid the sheeples. Lets see, impending recession/property adjustment followed by a right wing common sense politico after Justina and his selfie cabinet ruin us for 7 more years. At least he’s not in charge of any world affairs like the impotent intellect Obama. Another 5 years of building at inflated prices then freedom 48 in the US and Caribbean. Kind of regret not moving to the US years ago but hey, familial responsibilities.
The central banks of the world and the utter failure of their ZIRP/NIRP/QE policies have created a monster. It feels like the markets are on their deathbed dependent on someone to reassure the family that the that the ventilator power will not go off.
Today I woke up and read my Bloomberg app. Top story: “Asian stocks soar on FED optimism”. Optimism? Lol what a joke. Who the hell is optimistic about the FED being absolutely terrified to raise another teeny tiny .25% even with the economy is so “strong”? 4x to 2x now 1x. The FED should have raised last week. Can I ask just what was stopping them? Stocks were quiet, Europe quiet, China quiet, no zika/ebola/north korea/oil recovered somewhat and so on.
What. a. joke.
Now I am starting to wonder how long it’s been since Draghi gave us our last stimulus? Should be coming soon. Always does every few months. My nose is starting to bleed and I’m starting to suffer from heroin -sorry- monetary stimulus withdrawal.
#34 meslippery on 03.30.16 at 8:04 pm
#33 Cottingham house a bargain on 03.30.16 at 7:57 pm
Yeah right. 2006 we were not at “emergency” interest rates with a ever louder and humongous debt bomb underneath us about to explode, which will bring that chitty house’s value back down with it.
MF
So.. Vanvouer home prices are now reasonable because we are the Mecca of highly paid tehnological immigrants as opposed to Seattle which is just a sleepy outback at the end of the railroad. That explains why homes in Seattle are worth half what they are in Vanvouer.
Thanks National Bank Chief Economist.
At this point Im ashamed to call myself Canadian. I have a hard time associating myself with stupid.
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/3/30/Skyrocketing-housing-in-Toronto-and-Vancouver-makes-sense-National-Bank.aspx
Garth, to be fair, Canada was number 7 on that list of 7. china was in the bullseye.
And as a side note, notice mrs yellen totally stumbling over her nonsense words the other day. Translation, no more rate hikes this year. Canada will be negative by xmas.
We were sixth. Big deal. — Garth
#42 Wallflower. — I love the thought of being bizarre. At least it isn’t boring. Does it matter where A&W are headquartered if Canadians insist on local suppliers being utilized? Isn’t French’s and Canadian pride a winner in this scenario? I think I hear strains of “Power to the People” in the background. I just love a shake up at the grassroots level. Keeps the 1% on their toes. And it keeps the idea that change can be achieved in small steps. It just takes someone to step forward.
This, he says, “will be beyond historical experience.”
that is my feeling. this isn’t going to be a soft landing
as the US market crashed , the US lowered interest rates from 5% to 0%. Canada cannot do that. Or anything close. As the US market crashed, most people with mortgages had 30 year fixed mortgages. This had a huge stabilizing effect in the US. Canada does not have 30 year fixed mortgages. Or anything close.
…aaand private debt becomes a public responsibility when debt defaults pop?
As for yesterday’s post, I actually enjoy the comments. I enjoy them just as much as Garth’s posts.
Like IH said, there’s some raw humanity there and that is incredibly valuable. A suggestion: if you don’t like to read then don’t click on the comments button.
Many sites are now banning comments on stories they deem “sensitive” and it drives me nuts.
For example, the CBC keeps pumping their laughable propaganda daily and I want to at least comment (with tons of other people) that their articles are an absolute load of crap.
MF
“Average debt is an interesting thing. Wasn’t there an analysis that showed many older families and empty nesters were doing ok, but younger families shouldering large amounts of debt?”
I don’t know if I’d say “younger families”. I’d just generalize to ‘younger people’. Of course, the net worth position of homeowners is likely better than the non-owners, but the accumulation of equity by Canada’s young who do participate in the housing market is largely on account of the appreciation seen over much of the past decade. Rather than actual payments into equity. Equity that has been paid-in is often depleted through HELOCs or through maintenance deferral.
So basically a lot of families, young, and even older, are going to be in for a world of hurt with their one-asset strategy. Similar to how the US housing crash basically rendered most homeowners under the age of 40 into negative equity.
If this is the case, a shock would be better absorbed by the first groups while the latter group could be in for a world of hurt. Does this stratification in debt load have any sort of unique ramifications if there is a meltdown? Are we talking about record number of bankruptcies?”
I’m of the view that the government, the CMHC, and the Bank of Canada will move heaven and Earth to keep people in “their” houses and stave off widespread deflation and the CAD$ shooting further past the moon than it will already go. Similar to that experienced in the United States. The consequences, however, will be longer-term in nature for those families. No college funds. Few retirement funds. Poor labour mobility for the next decade or two as an underwater house effectively is a sort of ‘ball and chain’. Etc.
DELETED
average people don’t qualify
Toronto real estate is not for average people
many deals in that price range are all cash, if you have cash you qualify
any fool can criticize what he can never attain
It’s time to short genworth
I just want to know how I PROFIT from whats coming?
toronto real estate has been insane for awhile now. looks like nothing has changed.
There is really nothing else to say about this.
It’s like rehashing the scriptures for the same congregation over and over again.
It is what it is… It will run its course.
Getting obsessed with this is just a horrible investment in the most valuable commodity of all: time.
legit. that house looks so familiar I’m pretty sure I saw it on HGTV.
@ 45north
But Canada’s crash wouldn’t bring down the world economy? If American economy is really that strong it might drag us all up? hopefully anyways.
Garth, Do Preferreds still offer good value even with Yellen’s Dovish Stance from yesterday? Or would you direct those monies toward other classes until we actually see a rate rise if it comes.
Buy low and get paid 5% for waiting. How hard us that? — Garth
#7 For those about to flop… on 03.30.16 at 7:19 pm
Normal programming resumed…
M41BC
Thanks Pal
Prices wouldn’t be as high if we banned foreign buyers. This article talks about that option: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/ben-myers/is-a-ban-on-foreign-buyer_b_9567448.html?ncid=tweetlnkcahpmg00000002
I see a problem with stats.
Avg incomes = X
But average people aren’t buying houses in 416 and 604.
It’s people with cash or equity are buying these places. I’d like to see someone that’s carrying a $7100 mortgage.
A boomer couple with $1.4M in equity could easily afford this house. Hell, they could do so on a combined income of $80,000 a year right now at these rates.
“X number of people making $250k+ a year” doesn’t reveal their wealth.
Plenty of people making under 100k a year could afford this house, like every boomer home owner in Vancouver that’s owned since the early 2000’s.
Half way through my EI and still not a job sniff.
I’ve aged 5 years in 3 months
Boeing in Seattle just whacked 4,500 people from the payroll…….
You keep thinking like economists and bankers.
What do suburbs in Australia Norway and Canada
have in common? Expensive real estate where only
the wealthy can afford to live.
That’s not a problem if your objective
Is to keep outsiders out. It’s actually a
good thing.
Segregation and gettos.
Correction – March 30, 2016
This post originally mischaracterized the buyer of 166 Cottingham as a “young professional.” In fact, the buyer is a corporation.
http://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/toronto-house-sold-166-cottingham-street/
Freedom First, wow that sounds awesome.
Would that be East Village or Bridgeland or west over by Kensington? 1 bedroom?
All I can say is Wow! Knowing what’s coming reminds me of The Big Short and those guys waiting for the value of the securitized mortgage bonds to tank – i.e. It’s only a matter of time. Heaven help the clueless souls getting caught up in this.
My wife and I have decided to do our part to heat up Calgary’s economy. We are going to renovate our 1959 bathroom. Granite is entering our shack for the very first time. It is only a statement to reflect the fact that the house was built before granite was invented.
M60Ft.Mac
Glad the blog resumed : ) and that today’s discussion is so lively.
#12 Outta Here Dear – as an American living in YVR I heard a number of disparaging comments but I took them with a grain of salt. The same people who make the comments vacation in Hawaii and California. Loving to hate the U.S. It is big and brash and has a lot of both good and bad qualities.
#33 Freedom First – Underground heated parking? I never knew it existed. See I learn new things here every day.
#38 X – Bring on those higher rates. There is a bidding war for a house on my block here in Los Angeles. They want to “flip” it.
#62 45north – You are absolutely, fixed long term mortgages saved a lot of people. Many prime borrowers with ARM loans had to sell their homes at reduced prices (think 30% or so less than they paid). I hope it is a soft landing for you guys…
#75 homes for Canadians
Careful bud or they’re going to slam ya!
Not in this site, ya don’t.
Go local they’ll be more understanding.
#77 Porsche
I feel for you buddy..been there..try and keep perspective if you can..I know, easier said than done.
All the best…
I’m guessing the buyer is a Bombardier exec who just found out his 7 figure bonus is intact.
‘Norway and Australia are more pooched than us’ (?) Norway’s government doesn’t have a debt like we. And they saved and put into a special fund close to a trillion (thousand of billions) when the oil prices were good. Will Alberta ever learn anything? So at least the government there was thinking right. We’re just digging a dipper hole. Shouldn’t we rather stop digging? I was in Norway in 1973. In a pretty city Thromso (up north) there was a row of nice smaller houses for sale, each 25 ths krones (around 4 ths Can). Met a young boy, first job, no education, making just 2 ths k per month, still hesitating if he can afford to buy that house… What happened with people there? Population maybe doubled but how come houses are 100 times more? Greed? stupidity? or a big scam? Maybe all of the
above?
Now Australia… heck they are not very smart folks overall. But at least they don’t pay big bucks for heating like we do up north here in winter. And they know how to dig and hide under ground (no heat or A/C needed) when a bad and long solar flare would happen to disable a power grid for longer. We here will be just freezing to death in a short time. So overall we unfortunately are worst of all Countries at the moment Garth. There is absolutely nothing justifying our housing prices exceeding 300% rise in just few last years in many places actually. It worries me a lot.
In my opinion a serious correction would benefit the economy in a long run for sure. People are so overburdened with debts that it can’t end well. It’s time to start healing out of this crazy obsession with houses. It’s just a place to live after all. That’s it.
But sure, it must be those making 40 grand a year buying those houses right? Certainly not overseas buyers, because there is no evidence of this right? And if there was, we wouldn’t want to be accused of being racists right?
Don’t even start. — Garth
Even if the US is able to shoulder Canada taking it on the chin, there will still be fireworks in the ‘FIRE’ industries (your saw what I did there… ;-)
It works be interesting to look at what percentage of construction workers, realtors, and now mortgage brokers/designers/HGTV stars get sacked when RE tanked in the past. Then you could deduce how many jobs would get crushed when it happens in the future. There are a lot of people making good money in those careers that will no longer be kicking in on the economy when that happens…
Apparently, some people are leaving Vancouver due to the high cost of housing:
http://blogs.theprovince.com/2016/03/28/jennifer-fox-goodbye-vancouver-you-should-go-and-love-yourself/
#51 For those about to flop… on 03.30.16 at 8:34 pm
#37 Chris on 03.30.16 at 8:08 pm
with 1.9 million, let’s see, spend $500k USD on investment immigration and you still have a cool $1 million and more to spend on a house. probably can get a mansion on the beach somewhere in Florida.
////////////////////////////
Hey Chris and co, not right on the beach about 2 blocks away.Could stop your house from being washed away.
Rich people problems…
M41BC
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2844-Abaco-Ln-Jacksonville-
//////////////////////////.///////////../////
Awesome news Dude!!!
#85 common sense
Actually that’s not totally the truth, I was pumped about a phone interview today for a job in Regina that I found paid $15 an hour for a Telecom position and was piece work I think is how she put it…. you work when there’s work.
I declined not to relocate from Edmonton for that tremendous job.
YYc
Yes. I live in Alberta.
As a footnote, I feel compelled to answer the people who are suggesting that our true identity be disclosed on GF.
Are you all insane? Garth just wrote about the hatred sent to the comments. Imagine if the crazies who disagree with someone can actually find them in person. You can do it if you want. Not me. I am not he brightest guy in the class, but I am not an idiot either.
Dangerous for Garth too, as he has shared some of his hate mail over the years. But I also know I am a nobody.
n 03.30.16 at 9:33 pm
#7 For those about to flop… on 03.30.16 at 7:19 pm
Normal programming resumed…
M41BC
Thanks Pal
—————————————–
10:26 pm
#51 For those about to flop… on 03.30.16 at 8:34 pm
#37 Chris on 03.30.16 at 8:08 pm
with 1.9 million, let’s see, spend $500k USD on investment immigration and you still have a cool $1 million and more to spend on a house. probably can get a mansion on the beach somewhere in Florida.
////////////////////////////
Hey Chris and co, not right on the beach about 2 blocks away.Could stop your house from being washed away.
Rich people problems…
M41BC
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2844-Abaco-Ln-Jacksonville-
//////////////////////////.///////////../////
Awesome news Dude!!!
Dirty Dog,not real sure what your problem is but I just want you to know that when I grow up I wanna be just like you…
M41BC
#90 Solomon Grundy
She makes thousands. She’s just trying to make people from Vancouver feel sorry for her.
She needs to get a second or third job and suck it up.
#58 MF
‘No rate normalization in my lifetime’ Ben Bernanke.
Note that interest rates are actually going down in the world, only US increased by .25 and many people think that this will be it.
We have stupid system that is based on borrowing of non-existing ‘virtual’ money, created as loans, at the expense of savings.
And we need constantly growing debt (no need to repay it, just serve the interest).
I agree that we are going to see most likely some combination of travesties like negative interest rates/NIRP, 40 years + interest mortgages, maybe even 80 + years mortgages that are inherited (once you have a kid you can sign him/her off).
There is no way for debt to be reduced except rampant inflation.
Is is all smoke and mirrors and the stupid currency that we enjoy is worth exactly that, 1 /2 millionth of this stupid semi detached. maybe 1/50th of a brick.
I am not a gold proponent but I have a felling that the precious metals would have it’s revenge.
As for the savers and retirees on fixed income, I strongly recommend Vaseline. It simply works.
#81 Ontario’s Left Coast on 03.30.16 at 10:01 pm
All I can say is Wow! Knowing what’s coming reminds me of The Big Short and those guys waiting for the value of the securitized mortgage bonds to tank – i.e. It’s only a matter of time. Heaven help the clueless souls getting caught up in this.
….
Won’t happen here. The left brain to strong. They will keep buying and buying
Don’t have PhD in Herdonomics for nothing.
I have been reflecting on the abandonment of Canada/Alberta/Calgary by Murray Edwards to set up his tax affairs with a domicile in Britain. Curiously, it might help me with my property taxes in Cowtown.
I suspect it will put an end to the ridiculous demands by the moneyed gang that own the Flames that Cowtown property owners pay for a new rink for the hockey team.
Next will come a threat that if the plebes won’t pony up for a new shinny palace for these ardent free enterprisers they will move their team to Hertfordshire or Manchester.
M60Ft.Mac
Australia is not more pooched! We have China propping it all up – It’s different here!
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/03/chinas-little-emperors-prop-up-aussie-housing/
gots to drop this one on ya dawgs… so I am in the HNW “private client” area of a major international bank in YVR yesterday finalising the purchase of a home which I will own 94% of and listening in to the couple in the booth next to me, maybe 40 years each, looked affluent.
Convo went like this: uh, so we’ve arranged the purchase of the second property and uh we were wondering if we could TAKE THE MONEY WE’VE BORROWED FROM OUR FIRST HOUSE AND INVESTED IN OUR MARGIN ACCOUNT AND CASH IT OUT TO FUND THE DOWNPAYMENT ON THE SECOND PROPERTY
in other words, we took out a second mortgage to gamble it on shares and now we want to use that borrowed money to fund a loan on a second property.
And the best bit?
… we want to organize a bridging loan for $185,000 for the next week until the trades all settle because the purchase completes on Tuesday.
In other words: the high rollers with margin accounts, private bank accounts and two YVR homes didn’t have any spare cash at all to fund their second purchase.
Oh, and they sounded and looked worried. Big time.
still think this isn’t insane? Get help.
craigstaarrr
#77 Porsche on 03.30.16 at 9:40 pm
Half way through my EI and still not a job sniff.
I’ve aged 5 years in 3 months
***********************************
What do you do…or what are you looking to do and where? Perhaps some of these blogs dogs can make some connections for you.
Garth: I am a few days behind in reading your blog. I was worried about your despair in the last blog. Just want to let you know that you and your blog are very much appreciated. I thank you for your wise insight into the housing market, investments and economy. You are wonderful to be so dedicated in maintaining this blog. And you are appreciated and respected. The problem is that many people read your blog, but are silent. It is unfortunate that you have to read the ignorant comments from the noisy few. Please keep up this blog!
“The first question that comes to mind when I read this is “which actor should the guys behind The Big Short cast as Garth when they come to do a movie about Canada?” – Vundo
#JohnC.Reilly
https://youtu.be/54HXW1w49Ng
Buy low and get paid 5% for waiting. How hard us that? — Garth
————————————————————-
What about us bozo’s who bought at the top 18 months ago? Lower resets, interest rates stuck at 1 increase so far with Yellen getting softer each month…are we screwed?
You also get paid to wait. — Garth
#93 Freedom First on 03.30.16 at 10:33 pm
YYc
Yes. I live in Alberta.
As a footnote, I feel compelled to answer the people who are suggesting that our true identity be disclosed on GF.
Are you all insane? Garth just wrote about the hatred sent to the comments. Imagine if the crazies who disagree with someone can actually find them in person. You can do it if you want. Not me. I am not he brightest guy in the class, but I am not an idiot either.
Dangerous for Garth too, as he has shared some of his hate mail over the years. But I also know I am a nobody.
*********************
Yah, I with Freedom on this one.
There is a reason why Anonymous is anonymous – wouldn’t be effective any other way.
I would like to apply for the potential job of moderator. I’ll do it for free, love the Delete button (nope not a bc liberal triple delete email crew) just a boy with an itchy mouse finger and a willingness to root out stupid.
With respect to the today’s blog picture – hit the money frame with a pick up truck (with balls), throw the frame in the back – Viola! Remember to dress up as the Trailer Park boys.
Thanks for all your hard work over the past few years Garth.
http://thewalrus.ca/the-highest-bidder/
#99 3s
Sigh! Just when I thought things were calming down on this site from those racists Vancouver people. Now we have a racist Ausie. Wonderful!!
#22 the Jaguar on 03.30.16 at 7:34 pm
If more and more discretionary income goes to manage household debt, then it follows that there is less discretionary income to make other consumer purchases. It’s one reason retail is suffering and retail stores are closing. If we don’t buy consumer goods the factories and people that make them suffer. The economy as a whole suffers. A bright spot was the announcement in todays paper that all 850 A&W outlets will now use only French’s mustard and ketchup. Shows the power of Facebook, the herd, and Canadian nationalism lurking in the shadows. Beware Heinz and other big businesses headquartered outside Canada who think they can step on the Beaver’s tail.
*******************
Nicely put.
#82 WUL on 03.30.16 at 10:02 pm
My wife and I have decided to do our part to heat up Calgary’s economy. We are going to renovate our 1959 bathroom.
====
I luv this blog.
Pls send links to before and after pics.
I rent a bedroom with a shared 1957 bathroom. (pink and turquoise tile with terrazzo floor)
I’ll send mine if you send yours.
Great school district (Cottingham PS)
Very sexy.
2 million is a small price to pay to be Mr Eligible.
I love this cleaned up format, keep the topic on point.
The condescending and patronizing rebuttals are at a minimum, resulting in a relaxed and cerebral reading experience for me.
Thanks for your time and hard work Garth.
Garth, thanks for today’s post. Keep on blogging!
#33 Freedom First on 03.30.16 at 7:56 pm
Wow sounds like a steal! I’m YYC here too. Yours is 1 bedroom? I’d faint if that was 2 bedrooms for 1250. Recently upgraded my living quarters as well and was able to snag a 2 bedroom + den place for 20% off the 2014 rate.
Here’s a data point for my fellow blog dogs. Back in 2014, when I was a fool and didn’t know what an ETF was, I was looking to buy again after I sold (thankfully I chose to rent instead of buy back into a hot market). I looked at this place, listed in 2014, which is now listed again in 2016:
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16639569/603-10-AV-NE-Renfrew-Calgary-Alberta-T2E0X9-Renfrew
I went through my old emails from my realtor to see what the asking price was. I kid you not, the ask for the place was 449k in 2014. 11% correction right there for a property on a really nice street. I think we are seeing the start of a long, steady slide in home prices in Calgary! Not a crash, just several percentage points every year of declining value. My $0.02.
Suede
………………………………………………………………………….
True.
partner at work bought three years ago, 500k gain in value on his home in coquitlam.
His thinking about selling and moving out to the fraser valley and buying a 7600sq ft home on 2 acres.
He claims its only 1.8million. For him he sees it as 1.3million
Free upgrade.
For us on the sidelines we are not doing this buying.
#54 WallOfWorry on 03.30.16 at 8:42 pm
Garth….yes, let’s watch. For those on this blog, we have been watching for seven years…so what is a few more? Or maybe the question is who cares? There are so many factors you are not considering including wealth transfers from within families. What is the current Canadian foreclosure rate? Exactly….not a peep there. You can trumpet on with the same argument year over year but maybe there are other things to consider? Do we have a global currency crisis in play? Could that lead to a global perception that when priced in Canadian dollars and considering quality of life in Canada it is a fair deal? How about the asset bubble called the stock market when it continues to rise only because of artificially suppressed interest rates even in light of declining corporate earnings?
Nah…..you are right…..or at least one day will be because when you have been on the same argument for seven years the odds of eventually being right must tip in your favour?
****************************
Not sure where to start…but
1) you assume we have reached peak housing – it appears to be rising to even more insane levels.
2) you pay no attention to other recent bubble examples (i.e., US) and no mention of whether or not family wealth transfers were significant in the US.
3) sometimes reality stomps positive thinking. But you can try tapping your shoes together…remember three times.
Dirty Dog ,I think I know who you are.
I haven’t been stalked this hard since I moved to Canada and Pamela Anderson found out I was in town.
Pamela is that you?
I’m sorry I didn’t have any time for you ,and now I am married so I will have to get hold of Freedom First and see if you can go and visit him in his new digs.
I’m gonna warn ya ,he has his quirks but you are rich enough to at least go 50/50 on the first date so he doesn’t just feel like a wallet.
I’m surprised Pammy that you went with ‘Dirt Dog’ as a screen name but I guess it suits you as you love animals and like to run along the beach in slow motion.
P.S. When you go over to Freedom First’s place don’t ask him where all his photos of family and friends are ,its a no go zone…
M41BC
Ole Gartho, really surprised a smart financial dawgblogger wizard like yourself hasn’t figured out the numbers on numbnuts buying 2 large for half a doghouse…
He is using DOG MONEY! Fer Chrissakes, it’s worth 7 times more!
Kinda like the yawn. So Sorry, low blow
With annual income of 300k, the successful professionals profiting of this boom can afford these crazy price tags at a little above 3x income
”
With Canada looking more like Cuba daily with less disposable income due to housing costs (Cuba just has hardly any disposable income..), let’s look at what sells in Cuba – Food, Cheap Rum and essentials like clothes, back packs for kids.
So invest in essentials….The need to have items as compared to the want to have.
What great choices house owners have made for their future.”
Look back at how many NDP and Liberals over the years have gushed about Cuba. It’s obviously where the Trudeau Liberals have Canada headed.
Pierre Trudeau’s Charter of Tears created a Supreme Court For Life advocate to make sure the Liberal policies drive Canada into a state much like Cuba…gag laws for dissent and all.
As for the majority of Canadians, they’re entering chronic starvation, running on fumes of credit pretty much exhausted, kids go to school hungry and seniors binning…just like Cuba, the Trudeau Liberal Party ideal.
Hi Garth
So you mention everything that has gone wrong in Canada from income, employment, oil, etc…..so how do we explain the ever increasing house prices ?
Increased debt = Increased house price
That is the link you mention, but without stronger income or job security, are people reaching beyond means ? You mention a young professional – is it possible he takes down 2 large a year and doesn’t care?
This is still very bullish, if your example was a couple who could barely afford the monthly payment, choosing between food and shelter, then you have got that “a ha” moment, but you just found a rich person buying an expensive house, what’s the big deal about that ?
Boom,are you feeling the Bern?
I see Bernie Sanders is just in front of the Hill in Wisconsin.
I am available for crowd control on the 5th if you think your fellow citizens are going to get out of hand.
I will smuggle some cheese back in my suitcase to make it worth my while…
M41BC
I worry about the people earning 100k that bought my house in the Beach last year for over a mil. I sold because I doubled my money in 5 years and had a hard time seeing my equity tied up in a thing (l did love that house however). I’m GenX, it was my 4th house in the city that underwent a deep cosmetic reno and I sold to an unskilled egg head millenial. My buyers are screwed because like every other buyer they fail to factor in the costs of home ownership…which on a hundred year old home is close to double the the monthly debt service. The property ladder in Toronto served me well and I feel really lucky to have had the good fortune to have entered and exited at the right time. I think I got the meat of the big move. Its unfortunate that so many people that comment here express so much schadenfreude towards the unfortunate many that are about to suffer the consequences of their ignorance.
mxcii
#44 ronh
If only one American in a thousand is a true genius or, at least, has an extremely high IQ, that totals 319,000 brilliant people living within a system that generously rewards innovation and creativity.
It also allows a fantastic number of knuckleheads to take a free ride with complete freedom to spout any inanities they wish. Sadly, they get most of the air time.
My American investments ride on the other guys.
#93 Freedom First:
…As a footnote, I feel compelled to answer the people who are suggesting that our true identity be disclosed on GF.
Are you all insane?…
Um, that may or may not have been me that was FIRST with that thought.
Subsequently there has been many thoughtful contrary comments on that. Most of which I agree with by the way.
In my defense I’m way better at telling stories than propelling ideas but I was trying to be concise, succinct and brevity left out detail.
As an example Discus is one way of ensuring that the real person is known on the back end, yet anonymity is preserved online.
Or a simple file of folks registered with the blog owner, your name and email don’t match, you don’t get published. Again, known on the back end, use whatever name you prefer online but it has to match the one associated with your email, real name, etc so no more sock puppets.
In my short time here I can say I would trust Garth to white list both friend and foe…as long as the conversation remains within parameters.
Gives the blog owner control when permissions need to be granted for posting privileges and you can poof anyone easily.
#57 Carpenter – Could not agree with you more.
In the end, about self entitlement, self importance, keeping up appearances and ego in Canada. People using borrowed money to give themselves the lifestyle they believe they so richly deserve.
Love the douchebag comment. Why I moved from YVR.
Believe that the oil crash impact on the Canadian economy has yet to be felt in the rest of the country, coming and sooner than most would think.
Will manifest as job losses, as Garth points out, and interest rate hikes will exacerbate it all.
A 0.25% rate hike on $1 million mortgage is still about $2,000 more per year. 50% of Canadian households could not handle this cost increase per prior Garth posts.
It is just a matter of time before “robbing inheritances” and the “illusion of wealth” become reality.
Gartho baby..you are sweet :) On one hand you described well enough the disastrous level of debt… and on the other hand you still maintain (officially of course) that we will not see bank failures in Canada.
.. if you’d be of “babe” specie, 50 years younger and no hairy legs, I would propose to you.
..meanwhile I’ve got some puts on banks. Canadian banks that is. They came up very juicy :)
..oh yes.. DB too.. I don’t discriminate.
#104 Fed-up on 03.30.16 at 11:38 pm
Buy low and get paid 5% for waiting. How hard us that? — Garth
————————————————————-
What about us bozo’s who bought at the top 18 months ago? Lower resets, interest rates stuck at 1 increase so far with Yellen getting softer each month…are we screwed?
You also get paid to wait. — Garth
————————————————————————————–
Respectfully, wait for what exactly? Are you expecting a huge rebound in capital value very soon? So far, their capital value has sucked big time for almost 4 years, down 35-40% in that time frame. A one million dollar portfolio that was composed of 18% or $180,000 in preferred shares in 2012 would get you back on even ground on that component roughly around the same time as the Leafs winning the Stanley Cup.
To the topic, it is perception of cost and value that triggers such an amygdala hijack. The suspect youthful semi buyer played it saavy enough to be sitting at the table with money down, whether it’s a losing bet or no. Yes, he could have bought a ride on the space station. Yes, it’s a waste of money.
~
#100 craig on 03.30.16 at 11:08 pm
gots to drop this one on ya dawgs
…so I am in bank in YVR yesterday
…finalising the purchase of a home
…listening in to the couple in the booth next to me
…they took out a second mortgage
…tied up in another market
…but now a new deal completes on Tuesday
…they need $185k fast
In five minutes at 16%, I hear. They sound hoity toity, “bridging loan”. Hehe, it’s called behind the eight ball ’round here. You’re brave buying at the top. Got a tip for a friend?
~
#90 Solomon Grundy on 03.30.16 at 10:23 pm
Apparently, some people are leaving Vancouver due to the high cost of housing: http://blogs.theprovince.com/2016/03/28/jennifer-fox-goodbye-vancouver-you-should-go-and-love-yourself/
I read it. Two things pop out: she wants to live on a coast (alas, priced out of the west she’ll be headin’ east); all else betwixt be dammed.
A win for Sicamous, et al.
I have seen first hand the impact Chinese buyers are having in Toronto. I made offers on two small condo townhomes (that were both bidding wars) and apparently there was an offer from Hong Kong from someone that had not seen the place! I have also heard from co-workers where there older parents are selling homes to downsize and a few have had same offers out of China, people making bully offers and not even seeing the home. Garth I see what you mean on Canadians buying homes in Arizona for instance, but when it comes to Chinese buying property in Canada or elsewhere in the world it makes me upset. Why?? Chinese people can’t even own property in their own country. They have 60 year leases and cannot leave property to children, so they are rampantly buying foreign property as a means of investment. And foreigners cannot go to China and buy property there!! Why is this allowed??? Has the world lost it??! I understand money talks, but why are we letting people that live in this communist country own foreign property?! It is pure insanity. There must be laws enforced to prevent this until the Chinese relax there laws and let foreigners and locals purchase property in China.
I never did buy a home, instead I ended up renting. Turns out the condo I am renting is owned by someone in China who bought in case her son decides to come to school or move here and her son is only 10! Obviously, she just wanted a country outside of China to park her money. Who wouldn’t given the situation in China.
Now something else I noticed at those bidding wars, many were inquiring about condo rules as they wanted to use property for Airbnb, including that offer from
Hong Kong! My question is, to what extent is Airbnb also inflating the YVR and YYZ markets??
Together with the link below and article from
National Bank Financial and how the working population (ages 20 to 44) in YVR and YYZ are growing 70 percent faster than the national average. Apparently this is also fueling the surge in prices. Why shouldn’t this working population purchase homes now at low rates that take 25 years to pay off instead of waiting for market correction and higher rates and possibly paying a lot more in interest and overall higher monthly mortgage payments? Also, at that time they will be older and paying off a mortgage possibly well into 60’s or even 70’s and not working anymore. Crazy.
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/3/30/Skyrocketing-housing-in-Toronto-and-Vancouver-makes-sense-National-Bank.aspx
What are your thoughts Garth? What do these factors mean for housing? I am in my late 30s and held off buying a home, but at some point I will likely feel too old to purchase and carry a home well
into my 60s! I already feel like I missed the boat, while my peers have done much better with their investments and have a feeling of home ownership.
What are your thoughts on these factors Garth??
#61
A&W Canada is Canadian company and its NOT OWNED BY US chain called by same name. A&W Canada had its head office in North Vancouver BC.
DELETED
#112 Briana on 03.31.16 at 5:23 am
I have seen first hand the impact Chinese buyers are having in Toronto. I made offers on two small condo townhomes (that were both bidding wars) and apparently there was an offer from Hong Kong from someone that had not seen the place!
—
i’d say your entire post is pure bullshit
16 DollaramaNation welcome to the blog.
I believe that we have the dumbest central bank on earth.
bargain on 03.30.16 at 7:57 pm
Ok I will be the first to say that I actually think that the house mentioned above is a bargain at that price.
It will be 2.5mill by 2020 easy IMO.
The location for single detached homes where that house is located is a price safe as the U.S presidents bunker
It is not detached. — Garth
———–
Well , even if it is a semi it is still a bargain given its location.
If west side of Vancouver is any indication , 3 million for cottingham by 2020 shouldn’t surprise anyone
@#130 Briana
Apoparently your reading and comprehension skills take second place to babbling coworkers’ rumours and inuendo.
Coworkers who are (statistically speaking) at their most indebted in the history of Canada. All while interest rates are at historically low levels.
If you dont understand what is going to happen when these two “titans” finally wake up and clesh with each other……
You’re reading here is a waste of time.
Go mortgage a house and join the other grotesquely indebted greaterfools barely scraping by on record low interest rates.
What could possibly go wrong?
#97 Sheane Wallace on 03.30.16 at 10:44 pm
“We have stupid system that is based on borrowing of non-existing ‘virtual’ money, created as loans, at the expense of savings.
And we need constantly growing debt (no need to repay it, just serve the interest).”
I agree. This should be obvious to people but it’s not. People who do the right thing by saving and living within our means are screwed. No one cares about debt, which needs to be just inflated away. The system is a disaster.
That’s the strategy our “elite” economists have come up with? What a joke economics and economists are.
What is clear is that they are getting more desperate as rates are near bottom now. Like you said, we will see more desperate measures to keep this terminally ill vegetative patient breathing on the automatic ventilator. I now believe it will all be a failure and the inevitable will be a collapse of the US stock market (hugely overvalued in my eyes) and along with it the housing market here. I don’t think the currency will collapse but I do think that there will be a major reset. There has to be. How can there not be? History has shown that economic crisis’ occur frequently. The next one we have absolutely no weaponry to use. Rates already at zero, debt massive. The desperation should be evident to anyone who can read the actions of another.
#123 Passitover on 03.31.16 at 1:58 am
Why worry? That guy made a choice.
#112 LH on 03.31.16 at 12:28 am
How “eligible” is someone with a million dollar debt currently, and soon to be underwater equity in his 30’s?
Plus the house is ugly AF
MF
@#77 Porsche
Well you could always move from Edmonton to Halifax to look for work…..Oh , right. You once mockingly said “Where’s Halifax?”
Perhaps you could sell the Porsche (if its not leased) for the extra cash and buy a plane ticket on a half empty West Jet flight to Ft. Mac and apply for jobs….
They’re still hiring up there if you have marketable skills……but learn to speak Newfoundlandish. “Good luck Bye dem job hunts is right some hard.”
As for yesterday’s post, I actually enjoy the comments. I enjoy them just as much as Garth’s posts.
Like IH said, there’s some raw humanity there and that is incredibly valuable. A suggestion: if you don’t like to read then don’t click on the comments button.
Many sites are now banning comments on stories they deem “sensitive” and it drives me nuts.
For example, the CBC keeps pumping their laughable propaganda daily and I want to at least comment (with tons of other people) that their articles are an absolute load of crap.
MF
————–
You mistakenly believe you are entitled to the readership of the sites you mention to propagate your personal views. Comments are merely a feature outlets can choose to include or not. Adding an element of vox populi to their content is an editorial and commercial consideration for content providers, but not a requirement. You are always free to self publish your views on the Internet and see who cares to read them.
Kudos for the Belfountain project Garth. What a terrific, constructive, positive use of money.
National Bank says Toronto and Vancouver homeowners are not reckless. How many more times do you have to hear it from a major source? No problem.
#12 Outta here dear…
—-
Great post. I’m Canadian born and raised, but I have an American parent and an American-born and raised wife. The number of arrogant comments she gets from Canadians, usually the typical progressives, is embarrassing.
#130 Briana on 03.31.16 at 5:23 am
I have seen first hand the impact Chinese buyers are having in Toronto…
_________________
Waste of time sweating it.
You are looking to government regulation and controls to deal with your concerns which is a mistake right off the bat.
You have yourself to deal with your concerns, that’s it.
No matter if you think it’s wrong, not fair, insane etc…
You either pile on the debt, commute, or start anew elsewhere.
Garth, thank you so much for the financial insight you provide to your readers. When markets are reeling, yours has been the voice of calm and reason.
While I do enjoy the comments, I cannot believe the time that you dedicate to moderating a pack of scrapping rabid dogs, me included, on one particular subject. Sorry.
Whatever you and your family’s decision, I truly hope you will keep writing the financial blog, comments were human interest, however, your blog is essential to my financial education. Thank you.
#130, Briana
Honey, don’t you realize it is the new trick of every agent in the city to say make your best offer now because there are Chinese buyers with a good offer on the table already. Believing the Chinese are buying up everything makes you scared not to buy. It’s funny how every property you speak of has a Chinese connection. Great “story”.
Just being able to put the blame on consumers for poor debt management in making bad credit choices, will still weigh heavily on our economy; both now and in the future.
The inevitable debt crisis Canada’s not talking about (Great links to other articles)
“Mr. Vague says that any country whose private-debt-to-GDP ratio goes beyond 150 per cent and that has a five-year rate of growth of 18 per cent or greater in that ratio experiences a financial crisis at some point. (The data comes from the Bank for International Settlements.) These two milestones were surpassed during Canada’s recent borrowing binge. Canadians collectively owe more than 208 per cent of GDP and private debt to GDP grew more rapidly than the guideline between 2011 and 2016. Private debt grew from 182 per cent of GDP to 208 per cent, well above the benchmark rate of growth for five years.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/the-inevitable-debt-crisis-canadas-not-talking-about/article29445969/
Sad to say, there will unfortunately be a price to pay by every Canadian…
#122 Flopper…
No need for Crowd Control here… we are somewhat civilized (until Chicago, or Minneapolis, or Detroit win against the Packers of course…) then it can get ugly!
The good news is local Cheesemakers are busy. So, next Tuesday evening we will all be watching the primary returns, munching on fresh ‘squeaky’ cheese curds, and swilling our spotted cow beers. For a few select friends, I’ll have my 12 year old aged Cheddar’s ready for munching.
What is your favorite cheese? We have a dam wide variety here. Oh, and prices are decent, too.
$797000/(5*12) = 13,283.33/month to live in that house.
Jeebus
#140 Andrewt on 03.31.16 at 8:48 am
In my example I used the CBC. This publication is funded by you and me. We should be able to express our views on the page for this reason, and for the reason that if I were to start my own blog readership would be minimal because I am not a “national news outlet”.
MF
#136 Cottingham house a bargain
A bargain? Wow.
Garth,
You need to do a post on mortgage financing, how are people getting mortgages, both new entrants and those that move up to a bigger house.
Shed some light as you do very well.
Cheers!
#12 Outta Here Dear on 03.30.16 at 7:24 pm
Agreed, love the US, the hospitality, the attitude, everything. Went to Columbus, Ohio about a year ago and the number of people who will stop you in the street and ask you how you are doing and give you help, ask you where you are from. Same with Detroit.
#147 economictsunami on 03.31.16 at 9:23 am
This scares the crap out of me. Garth, if household debt is 170% of disposable income are there any stats for millennials vs gen-x vs boomers debt-to-income? It’s probably terrifying what some millennials are at, student debt, mortgage, credit card….
_____________________
Recently, a friends sister graduated uni and found a job paying $14/hr. She was shocked at the number of people living on these wages and not just young people. It was like watching all her debbie travis fantasies evaporate in an instant. I told her this is reality there are tons of small offices, plants, etc filled with people earning these wages. Just trying to stress that this isn’t a small segment of the population. ok $14 is on the low-side but not much higher.
This is why I am against a minimum wage. If you have adults making the same as kids at McDonald’s then something isn’t right. Over the last 10 years wages are at a stand-still in the low-wage sectors. Oh ya, and it looks like entry-level wages for skilled-degreed workers are falling in a number of industries. Not sure what that means for the economy but it’s true.
Hey Garth
maybe you should go the way of Daring Fireball and other bogs and sites and remove comments altogether, they rarely add anything anyways!
#120 90 miles too close to BS,
just to put your knowledge of Canada into perspective, our Supreme Court justices retire at age 75. Those in the States are appointed for life.
a mere 210,000 people in the entire nation make that kind of dough.
–Officially —
#130 Briana.
Another person pissed off at the Chinese for buying property in Canada.By the sound of your name you must be white. I’m getting so tired of this. I think we need to open the re-education camps or F.E.M.A camps.
#151 Julia on 03.31.16 at 9:58 am
#136 Cottingham house a bargain
A bargain? Wow.
———
What should “wow’ you is the fact that people continue to be wow’d at ever increasing prices for a commodity with an ever decreasing supply with a decreasing cost and increasing ease of acquisition .
Keep being wow’d Julia, 8 years and running .
I’m not
#91 Solomon Grundy on 03.30.16 at 10:23 pm
Apparently, some people are leaving Vancouver due to the high cost of housing:
http://blogs.theprovince.com/2016/03/28/jennifer-fox-goodbye-vancouver-you-should-go-and-love-yourself/
“Vancouver has a terrible dating-scene”… ha ha, what does that even mean?
The writer is miss perfect, but somehow all the single guys in Vancouver are terrible?
Ha ha ha, I’m pretty sure it is the other way around.
The it’s-not-me-it’s-evereone-else-syndrome.
Vancouver is better off with her, frankly. The less entitled princesses and princes, the better!
Bram
If rates don’t rise, it will still be a train wreck for people just in more slow motion. Most people are actually priced out of their own neighbourhoods at these levels – that they may have stretched to buy just five years ago. It will take a trigger, rates, regulation, boomers downsizing en masse?
#99 WUL,
never fear, I’m from Ottawa, have seen this game, and know the final score.
You build up a professional franchise to the extent you can, or promise a franchise for a popular sport. You build a following at the gate or in the social media of at least 10,000 “fan[atic]s”, point out to the city fathers how disappointed these voters will be if they don’t get the new facilities to house your current or promised franchise. You pay someone to do an economic impact study proving conclusively how your improved or new franchise will benefit local business and generate taxes, and make sure it gets out there.
Presto, public money will be available, even if the city has to go into debt.
#137 #139 crowdedelevatorfartz
OUCH! Dem dare almost fighting words. Don’t get me wrong I like it. Keep up the good work and all these Newfy racist and these Vancouver racists will be off this site. It’s a sad day to be white!
Stéphane Dion gave a speech at the University of Ottawa
he seems to have made quite an impression:
John Ivison:
There is a similarly vapid feeling to Dion’s speech at the University of Ottawa Tuesday. He said the guiding principle of his mandate would be something he called “responsible conviction.”
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-a-vapid-feeling-to-stephane-dions-fence-sitting
Terry Glavin: It wasn’t Dion’s unsubtle plays to the partisan cheap seats, or even his flights of revisionism that were so fanciful that the factual record of his own Liberal colleagues – indeed the entire Liberal caucus – can only make them seem now like chumps. It was Dion’s vain effort to vest some deep philosophical heft into what a charitable reading of his remarks would otherwise have placed in the category of a harmless advertising jingle.
so glad I wasn’t there
oh the link to Terry Glavin:
http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/glavin-a-foreign-policy-of-irresponsible-contradiction
#148 BOOM! on 03.31.16 at 9:32 am
#122 Flopper…
No need for Crowd Control here… we are somewhat civilized (until Chicago, or Minneapolis, or Detroit win against the Packers of course…) then it can get ugly!
The good news is local Cheesemakers are busy. So, next Tuesday evening we will all be watching the primary returns, munching on fresh ‘squeaky’ cheese curds, and swilling our spotted cow beers. For a few select friends, I’ll have my 12 year old aged Cheddar’s ready for munching.
What is your favorite cheese? We have a dam wide variety here. Oh, and prices are decent, too.
///////////////////////////////
Mornin’ Boom,speaking of civility,CNN actually paid you guys a compliment about how well mannered and behaved you guys have been so far.
My wife had it on and I really wasn’t paying attention to it until I heard the magic word ” Wisconsin”.
It’s funny how an online friendship can get you interested in a topic that you might not normally be interested in.
It’s a pity that John ( the normal one) Kasich is so far behind as Donny ( foot in mouth disease) Rump and Ted ( fake it til you make it ) Cruz aren’t really Casa Blanca material in my eyes anyway.
Back on to cheese ,apparently one of the nicknames people from Washington state have bestowed on the people of B.C is “cheeseheads” as we load up on cheese when we go shopping there.
No one has ever said any such thing to me but a couple of times people have heard my Aussie accent and felt obliged to tell me how much the enjoyed visiting Oz and some of these guys only went there for military service.
This is where I leave my zippy one liner,but I won’t do it this time as that would be cheesy…
M41BC
P.S. Freedom First, you know I like joking with you but I’m glad your moving to a better place and back on the blog.You’ve got thicker skin than an elephant…
# 146 Lee
That’s a lie. A real estate agent would never pull a trick like that. They’ll lose their licence.
Again another person pissed off at the Chinese.
Tired of it!
Is it just me, or do all these urban infills look cookie-cutter? Tall, slim, grey, glass…they’re all the same
DELETED
#150 MF on 03.31.16 at 9:46 am
In my example I used the CBC. This publication is funded by you and me. We should be able to express our views on the page for this reason, and for the reason that if I were to start my own blog readership would be minimal because I am not a “national news outlet”.
————
So you can become one, make sign “give us our comments back” and walk sidewalk up and down in front of CBC, keep repeating, until comments are enabled again. If that doesn’t get your comment section problem resolved try something more creative.
#153 hope & ruin on 03.31.16 at 10:25 am
Recently, a friends sister graduated uni and found a job paying $14/hr. She was shocked at the number of people living on these wages and not just young people. It was like watching all her debbie travis fantasies evaporate in an instant. I told her this is reality there are tons of small offices, plants, etc filled with people earning these wages. Just trying to stress that this isn’t a small segment of the population. ok $14 is on the low-side but not much higher.
This is why I am against a minimum wage. If you have adults making the same as kids at McDonald’s then something isn’t right. Over the last 10 years wages are at a stand-still in the low-wage sectors. Oh ya, and it looks like entry-level wages for skilled-degreed workers are falling in a number of industries. Not sure what that means for the economy but it’s true.
____________________________________________
Is this in Toronto?
At least in manufacturing – the GTA is jammed with new Canadians slaving away for peanuts. I travel the GTA for my job, and it’s all I see: young south Asians and Chinese primarily in administration and engineering positions making jack.
I’ve even been privy to a Company owned by a Chinese guy (big smile, great English) who was fully exploiting his own Chinese brethren in the form of newly landed non-English speaking Chinese mainlanders – I have it from the horses mouth: these guys were getting less than minimum wage. They were literally scared shitless.
Most of all of these immigrant folks had degrees from their homelands. They are also loathe to exit their big Toronto enclaves for greener pastures.
Think about it. Out my way, you can buy a house that far exceeds the size and quality of a 416 teardown with 5X the land for 150K. A couple making 15/hr. would have a family income of $62,400.00, making that 150K house 2.4X income. Compare that to a 150K a year professional GTA couple buying the 1 Mil shack in the 416 at 6.7X. Forget about 14/hr.
Hell, a couple making minimum wage could buy that 150K house in my neck of the woods at 3.2X income – way better than the uni educated white collar GTA schmucks.
Lot’s of places to make minimum wage…
I agree something is out of whack – minimum wage workers in rural areas have it easier than degree holding white collar Torontonians.
As I’ve said many, many, many, many times before if you own grossly overvalued house in Toronto or Vancouver area, now is the time to cash in your winning lottery ticket. Well, what are you waiting for?
Cheese heads
Theirs a reason people from Washington State call people from B.C. CHEESEHEADS because that’s what they are. A bunch of whining entitled British colonists who want the whole place to their selves. I can’t wait to go back their in twenty years and see that whole area occupied by foreigners.
#165 Flopper…
John Kasich is the only rational Republican in the running, in my humble opinion. I don’t think he will do very well in WI, simply because your governor here Scott Walker is of the same party, but more rabid! A lot of people here wish nothing more to do with Walker, or anybody remotely associated. So, Katich loses votes by association. Too bad, but that is the way I see it falling.
Bernie will get my vote in the primary, just support. He doesn’t have a snowballs chance in Hawaii of winning the nod. Hillary, not for me, thanks. Donald T. Rump, pass there, too… No Cruz control, either…
Republicans either go with a brokered convention, or they can go home. They want to play this game in the worst way, and that is EXACTLY what they’re doing!!
Somehow, we will pass this electoral this bowel obstruction…
Rube,
Read the post more closely. I’m mad at the people who scapegoat the Chinese. It’s funny how whebn you buy there are Chinese lined up interested. When you sell, they disappear.
#150 MF on 03.31.16 at 9:46 am
#140 Andrewt on 03.31.16 at 8:48 am
In my example I used the CBC. This publication is funded by you and me. We should be able to express our views on the page for this reason, and for the reason that if I were to start my own blog readership would be minimal because I am not a “national news outlet”.
MF
/////////////////////////////////////
Hey MF ,I hope you are well brother.
You could take that thought one step further ,as when people were telling the boss what to post and what not to post.
I tried to stay out of it but one thing that jumped out at me was it is Garth Turner’s blog… One man…One name….not an organization where people can hide behind others.
When Garth deletes some of my comments occasionally ,I swear if I told him the joke face to face with perhaps more explanation,he would allow some of them.
He has to moderate ,as he feels is necessary each given day ,with a human element,what passes one day might not be posted the next.
I mean give the guy props, he takes the time to read every post ,even this stupid one…
M41BC
#171 Doug in London on 03.31.16 at 12:07 pm
As I’ve said many, many, many, many times before if you own grossly overvalued house in Toronto or Vancouver area, now is the time to cash in your winning lottery ticket. Well, what are you waiting for?
Judgement Day.
#171 Doug in London on 03.31.16 at 12:07 pm
As I’ve said many, many, many, many times before if you own grossly overvalued house in Toronto or Vancouver area, now is the time to cash in your winning lottery ticket. Well, what are you waiting for?
————————-
waiting for 2.4 mil for central, 25′ lot w bigger house eastside (maybe 1.4 now)
got 5 yrs i can wait. the nearby new hospital should be open around then.
vancouver will still be her spectacular self then , even more global cash will be heading her way.
They are going to continue to supply cheap money.
Thus more people will buy RE, hence house prices continue to go up which will make the banks books look stellar, a nice boost in prop taxes also.
All the while your hard earned savings depreciate via inflation.
Why else would a house that cost 17 thousand dollars in the early 60’s now be worth 1.7 million dollars in my N Van hood?
And it’s a tear down.
Half a century ago? Seriously? — Garth
The conclusion – we’re vulnerable. To a jobs drought. Higher borrowing costs. A shock of any kind.
__________________________
Of course, but when is this ever not true?
The old geezers at the coffee shop are opening their ears and eyes watching the US presidential election campaign. Donald trump has taken the guts to expose the inner workings of the democracy in the US. Now we learn that the vote of the voter has NO input as to the selection of the candidate for the president. The final decision is made by the insiders of the party (rep and dem). The process is RIGGED. The Rules can change every minute if needed.
It makes a lot of sense why many countries in the world show no respect for Western Democracy.
What is the REAL democracy process in Canada?
Now there are more questions than answers.
Maybe young professional is a dentist? On every corner in Toronto is at least one dentist and yet they are the most expensive in the world. When you travel in Europe
you can have a dental work at a fraction of Turdonto price.
In some developing countries like France or Italy….
I know one of the guys that put this 3m security glass promo together (as pictured). Nothing went wrong.
Financial markets had been rather “cooperative” for quite a while now. Porfolio managers, analysts and traders just got their well-deserved bonuses. Right now, they seem to be not only mesmerized into cozy feeling of contentment but also lulled into a rather sweet complacency. And why shouldn’t they? By and large, their portfolios yielded postive “alphas”, their “betas” are being kept under control. Hmm… I wonder what could go wrong? — CK vs WS
#166 Rube Goldberg on 03.31.16 at 11:23 am
# 146 Lee
That’s a lie. A real estate agent would never pull a trick like that. They’ll lose their licence.
Again another person pissed off at the Chinese.
Tired of it!
———————————————————- He’s not pissed off at the Chinese,He’s just pissed off period.
Trudeau on CNBC this morning.
Reporter mention one third of all homes sold in Vancouver or to Chinese, Trudeau did not dispute that fact!
That does not make it true. Which it demonstrably is not. — Garth
#A”WhatCouldGoWrong”… #DayInTheLifeOfBC…
#1.UrbanRenewalNanaimoStyle,Or… #WileECoyote?…
[TimesColonist] – Nanaimo commercial block ‘a total loss’ from fire: official
“No one was injured. The entire block — including the old Acme Food Co. restaurant, retail stores on the ground level and office space on the second storey — has been destroyed.”…
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/nanaimo-commercial-block-a-total-loss-from-fire-official-1.2221072
#2.DriverEducation
[CBC] – 250KM/hr Prang Costs Wang…
“We’re very lucky that we didn’t pull two dead bodies out of this vehicle,” said Const. Brian Montague on Wednesday, “It’s nothing more than a fluke.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/teen-driver-charged-after-allegedly-going-5-times-speed-limit-1.3512770
#InHollyWood… #The
AssGrassReallyIsGreener…[CBC] – Brendon Williams of ‘dudeoir’ fame appears in American Eagle underwear ad
“Underwear’s kind of where I’ve made my mark on this world, I guess,” he said. “If my butt made it to Times Square, who knows where it could go next?”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/boudoir-photo-underwear-1.3511705
#TheDayTheMusicDied…
[G&M] – Closing of Vancouver’s Railway Club leaves a hole in music scene
…”The closing of the Railway Club reflects a broader affordability crisis in Vancouver, said Andrey Pavlov, a finance professor at Simon Fraser University.
Cultural venues such as the Railway Club rely on a predominantly younger audience, and those people are being squeezed out of the city by skyrocketing housing costs, he maintains.”…
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/closing-of-vancouvers-railway-club-leaves-a-hole-in-music-scene/article29466125/
[NoteToGT: Liberties may have been taken with the DriverEducation Leader…]
Well, Democracy is brotherhood. If it’s not, than is a outward lie. Capitalism cannot be democracy because is based on exploitation of your fellow man.
Lets forget Democracy. Long live Meritocracy (but not just in the restaurant kitchen)….
Nemesis, when casting for Garth Turner in the Canadian version of the Big Short are we going for looks or acting ability?
This guy might be a candidate,best known as Tim the tool man Allens trusty sidekick in the comedy series Home Improvement.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Karn
#mightbecheaperthan. #johncreily.
Now if you so much hate Chinese, just watch out.
China is ruled by Communist Party which Chairman Mao founded. Wherever China become independent in the history it always ended as an empire.
But who would know that in the lets say city of Toronto
when all day I can see bunch of kids roaming streets.
Are they ever attending school?
Just took a look at what 1.+ million gets you in TO.(166 Cottingham St.)
That kind of money will buy you a detached on acreage with a view of mountains, the sea, and leave enough to retire on.
Just get out of TO. and YVR. Anyone stupid enough to buy there at these prices is NUTS!
Oh! I get it, LEMMINGS.
#178 Joe2.0 on 03.31.16 at 12:49 pm
They are going to continue to supply cheap money.
Thus more people will buy RE, hence house prices continue to go up which will make the banks books look stellar, a nice boost in prop taxes also.
All the while your hard earned savings depreciate via inflation.
Why else would a house that cost 17 thousand dollars in the early 60’s now be worth 1.7 million dollars in my N Van hood?
And it’s a tear down.
Half a century ago? Seriously? — Garth
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Salaries have gone up 10,000% ? Seriously?
I know taxes have doubled in the last 60 years. Reason #33 we left Canada….
#185 Mark on 03.31.16 at 1:36 pm says…
“Trudeau on CNBC this morning. Reporter mention one third of all homes sold in Vancouver or to Chinese, Trudeau did not dispute that fact!”
That does not make it true. Which it demonstrably is not. — Garth
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Politicians have a hard time disagreeing with anyone… makes it hard to get elected. ;-)
One “Jared Acres” has deposited this gem at #168 –
DELETED
http://www.landrushcanada.com/
Looks like fun. Anyone going? I would love to hear a rational person’s field report on that madness.
#125 Metaxa
Yes. I agree with you.
Also, I have only posted under two names. Once only, using my first and last name, and the handle “Freedom First”. Garth knows who I am and where I am. Lastly, I love people and I am loved by a few people. I will continue to live my life as I do. And, the last thing I ever want to do, is to hurt anyone. I always live life to keep a clear conscience. This is my most prized possession.
My past speaks for itself and I have nothing to hide.
150 MF on 03.31.16 at 9:46 am
—
This site sure isn’t a “national news outlet” and that hasn’t prevented it from becoming widely read.
With the rise of blogs, media has become more democratic than at any time in history.
The CBC may be taxpayer funded but its mandate is not to give every person a widely viewed forum to say whatever they feel like. You can always write or call the CBC, or your MP, directly to express your concerns, or as I mentioned before, you can always start a “CBC is propaganda” themed blog and see if it takes off if it really means that much to you. Who’s to say it wouldn’t become a phenomenon and change the game for public broadcasting?
Garth thank you for saving the Belfountain General Store in Caledon. I am sure it will look much better after the renovations. I hope you write up a good blog post about that when it opens up again. Also most of the people here have no idea about that store or its history to the region.
I’m already having some fun: http://www.BelfountainStore.ca. Contemplating how much free ice cream to set aside for blog dogs’ dogs. — Garth
Dolarama’s earnings and its stock is telling of the quality of the economy we have: beat the highest of estimates.
More and more people go there to buy bread and oats for 25% off.
(Now about this 1.9M attached house purchase, someone would do well to interview the buyer. If his income profile doesn’t match the size of the mortgage, can we find out who is the lender?. Seems a good lead for a journalist not paid by ReMax)
#197 Nomad on 03.31.16 at 2:52 pm
Dolarama’s earnings and its stock is telling of the quality of the economy we have: beat the highest of estimates.
More and more people go there to buy bread and oats for 25% off.
(Now about this 1.9M attached house purchase, someone would do well to interview the buyer. If his income profile doesn’t match the size of the mortgage, can we find out who is the lender?. Seems a good lead for a journalist not paid by ReMax)
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As someone pointed out earlier, it was a corporation that bought the house to rent out.
http://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/toronto-house-sold-166-cottingham-street/
“The fate: The buyer, a corporation looking to rent out the home, was attracted to the property’s location, its open interior, and the swanky backyard, which has new fencing and a built-in barbecue.”
#165 Flop
I think you and I have some distinct similarities. We are not all that bright, we have different viewpoints than most, and we are somewhat friendly.
The problem is the ongoing expansion of the money & credit supply.
Unless government deficit spending (and borrowing) is curtailed and the suppression of interest rates ends, these house prices will be with us forever.
#88 tj on 03.30.16 at 10:14 pm
Unaoil scandal draws in WorleyParsons
Australian engineering giant WorleyParsons has now joined Leighton Holdings’ offshore arm and dozens of foreign multinationals facing allegations that they used corrupt agents to win government contracts in oil-rich countries
March 31, 2016 – 8:35PM
Nick McKenzie, Richard Baker, Michael Bachelard, Daniel Quinlan
More Australians have been implicated in the growing scandal over corruption in the oil industry as the FBI joins forces with British and Australian police to investigate revelations of a huge global bribery racket.
Backed by US Department of Justice anti-corruption prosecutors, the UK National Crime Agency, the Australian Federal Police and the FBI have launched investigations in response to a Fairfax Media-Huffington Post expose of widespread graft and bribery.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/unaoil-scandal-draws-in-worleyparsons-peter-gregg-20160330-gnuqas.html#ixzz44ViGkffY
That little grey semi does not seem to have a driveway.
2 mil is quite a bit for that, but again, look where it is located: Right in the middle of Summerhill in the Yonge and St. Clair area. Houses have been going for multiple millions in that area for years. 1.9 mil is actually a bit of a bargain there. Bet the buyer could flip it for a few hundred thousand in profits if he waits six months.
That area is high end. You can still get a house in my neighbourhood for slightly under 500K (remember about two months ago I was saying, come buy in my neighborhood for under 400K (can’t do that anymore, the new bottom is now 500K). We are south of hwy 401, right next to what is being described as: “the largest public transit project currently under construction in Canada and represents the single biggest expansion of urban rapid transit in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in more than half a century”
https://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2016/03/ontario-breaks-ground-on-first-eglinton-crosstown-lrt-station.html
But of course, by the summer, likely it will be “come buy in my neighbourhood, for slightly under 600K”.
We seem to have a long way to go, to catch up to every other neighborhood in Toronto.
Oh well.
“upcoding,”
Insurance giant Humana Inc., which operates some of the nation’s largest private Medicare health plans, knew for years of billing fraud at some South Florida clinics, but did little to curb the practice even though it could harm patients, a doctor alleges in a newly unsealed whistleblower lawsuit”
“Seven years ago I presented to Humana the problem with upcoding and entering false information in patients’ medical records in order to justify the upcoding… Nothing has changed. Nothing has been done to protect the hundreds of patients with misleading medical information in their medical records,” Baez wrote.
https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/03/04/19397/yet-another-whistleblower-alleges-medicare-advantage-fraud
I’m already having some fun: http://www.BelfountainStore.ca. Contemplating how much free ice cream to set aside for blog dogs’ dogs. — Garth
Belfountain is next to Brimstone, that should cool all the sinners… ;-)
#130, Briana
I don’t see why Briana’s can’t be true (ie. HAM). It sure does have a true ring to it and NONE of us can say otherwise with any evidence to the contrary.
#189 Dan. What do you mean? Are you saying that if we sell Canadian houses to the Chinese that Canada is going to become Communist China? I wish you would take your racist remarks to another site. I’m sick of it! I think somebody should be warning the very few Chinese people buying homes in Vancouver that the prices are going to drop.I think those poor people are falling into a trap and are about to lose a lot of there hard earned money. And it doesn’t seem very Communist when you visit China.
#197 Dups on 03.31.16 at 2:48 pm
…
I’m already having some fun: http://www.BelfountainStore.ca. Contemplating how much free ice cream to set aside for blog dogs’ dogs. — Garth
Prolly not a good idea Garth. Many dogs these days are diabetic or borderline. Especially our older pooches.
Sheesh. — Garth
@ Rube Goldberg
I’m so old I rememebr you doing the weather on tv back in da 60’s !
Boys o boys could you ever draw a weather map right sum quick on a chalk board.
Jeez, you must be a hunnert and tirt teen by now
Money escaping other countries particularly China. Corrupt or not.
I was talking to the neighbour being next door to my house since 1974 when it was built.
The Lot was $2000 and over an acre. Right in town but completely private with ocean View through the the park. Lot now? $150,000.
My place would be $3,500,000 or more in Van and we are not far away in a way nicer place. I’ve been to every town in BC twice and it second to none.
My house is worth about $450,000 says the Realator maybe
It truly shows you how stupid people really are. More money then brains.
You can buy a tear down for Couple mil in Van or have this.
Replacement cost is about $650,000
Now how stupid are Canucks?
Remember the earthquake in China and how we had to come to their aid? $$$ That’s a joke as the buy up have the planet.
You could give them a spoon and us guns and you would be toast.
The point? Allowing our broke ass gov to continually piss money down the drain. We can’t even help ourselves.
Canucks should have revolted many times.
No we will bail out a loser company like Bombardier.
The list is long.
Hopefully people here are smarter then the average idiot in Cunuckhead land.
I my move to Brazil!
Forget gaming and lottery tickets and put your $$ into Vancouver real estate. It’s a no lose proposition fueled by a global gusher of cash. The volume of transactions is now so large that none of the government agencies (RCMP, Rev. Canada, Province, Fintrac) can keep up. Enforcement is non-existent. Laws and rules are irrelevant in this land rush. http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Real+estate+scams+need+high+tech+attention+Vancouver+Canadian+experts/11821831/story.html
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Starbucks To Start Serving Alcohol In Canada Next Week